Science.gov

Sample records for global change effects

  1. Ecological effects of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  2. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  3. GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON CORAL REEF CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fisher, W., W. Davis, J. Campbell, L. Courtney, P. Harris, B. Hemmer, M. Parsons, B. Quarles and D. Santavy. In press. Global Change Effects on Coral Reef Condition (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington...

  4. The Effects of Global Change upon United States Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of change...

  5. Global versus local effects on climate change in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, Heiko; Müller, Markus; Mannig, Birgit

    2015-10-01

    Regional climate change arises from two processes which, in the real climate system, cannot be separated from each other: local radiative forcing and advection of air masses from regions which themselves have been subject to climate change. In this study, we present an experimental design based on a regional climate model allowing for the assessment of global and local effects on future climate change in Asia. We carry out two runs which are characterized by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations within the model domain, but one (the control run) is one-way nested into a global control run at the lateral and oceanic boundaries while the other (the forced run) is one-way nested into a consistently forced global simulation. The aim is to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change in a regional context. It turns out that temperature and precipitation changes in Asia are indeed mostly related to changes in the advected air masses which enter along the lateral boundaries. Regionally confined greenhouse forcing only affects the atmospheric heating rate while precipitation and atmospheric circulation features remain more or less unchanged. Temperature changes in the forced experiment are partly governed by warmer air masses penetrating the lateral boundaries and partly by a modification of atmospheric circulation processes, including a tendency towards a double-trough structure over Central Asia and changing temperature advection. The trend pattern of precipitation is much more heterogeneous in space but can partly be attributed to changes in horizontal wind divergence and vertical velocity.

  6. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-11-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to

  7. Agricultural ecosystem effects on trace gases and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change is an issue that has been thrust to the forefront of scientific, political, and general community interest. In the span of this human generation, the earth's climate is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of recorded history. Some of the changes will result from natural processes, beyond human control, but much of this change is subject to anthropogenic influence arising from processes that are only beginning to be understood. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric radiatively active trace gases are being inadvertently affected by fossil fuel combustion; but other activities of industry, agriculture, forestry, changing land-use practices, waste disposal, and transportation also affect the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The measured and projected changes of the atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active trace gases have been modeled and estimated to predict changes in the global climate. Accuracy and reliability of these predictions are the subject of considerable debate among scientists and other concerned individuals, groups, and governmental agencies throughout the world. The objective of this book is to provide a review of current knowledge on the measurement of radiatively active trace gases in agricultural ecosystems and the effect of agriculture on the atmospheric concentrations of these gases. This book is compiled from written papers presented at a symposium entitled, Agroecosystem Effects on Radiatively Important Trace Gases and Global Climate Change, held at the American Society of Agronomy Meetings in Denver, CO, 27 Oct.-1 Nov. 1991. Fourteen chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  8. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced

  9. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  10. Amazonia and Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Michael; Bustamante, Mercedes; Gash, John; Silva Dias, Pedro

    Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as • Wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis • Increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle • Drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments • The net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere • Floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere • The impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. The book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists.

  11. Will Global Change Effect Primary Productivity in Coastal Ecosystems?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Algae are the base of coastal food webs because they provide the source of organic carbon for the remaining members of the community. Thus, the rate that they produce organic carbon to a large extent controls the productivity of the entire ecosystem. Factors that control algal productivity range from the physical (e.g., temperature, light), chemical (e.g., nutrient levels) to the biological (e.g., grazing). Currently, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide surficial fluxes of ultraviolet radiation are rising. Both of these environmental variables can have a profound effect on algal productivity. Atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase surficial levels of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our laboratory and field studies of algal mats and phytoplankton cultures under ambient and elevated levels of pCO2 show that elevated levels of inorganic carbon can cause an increase in photosynthetic rates. In some cases, this increase will cause an increase in phytoplankton numbers. There may be an increase in the excretion of fixed carbon, which in turn may enhance bacterial productivity. Alternatively, in analogy with studies on the effect of elevated pCO2 on plants, the phytoplankton could change their carbon to nitrogen ratios, which will effect the feeding of the planktonic grazers. The seasonal depletion of stratospheric ozone has resulted in elevated fluxes of UVB radiation superimposed on the normal seasonal variation. Present surface UV fluxes have a significant impact on phytoplankton physiology, including the inhibition of the light and dark reactions of photosynthesis, inhibition of nitrogenase activity, inhibition of heterocyst formation, reduction in motility, increased synthesis of the UV-screening pigment scytonemin, and mutation. After reviewing these issues, recent work in our lab on measuring the effect of UV radiation on phytoplankton in the San Francisco Bay Estuary will be presented.

  12. IMPACT OF GLOBAL CHANGE OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: FRAMEWORKS FOR EVALUATING AGROECOSYSTEM AND FOREST ECOSYSTEM EFFECTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Global Climate Research Program (GCRP) is determining the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. his paper describes a general ecological risk assessment model as well as specific conceptual models for urrent...

  13. Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Vitousek, P.M. )

    1994-10-01

    While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, some components of global environmental change are certainly occurring and are certainly human-caused. All have important ecological consequences. Well-documented global changes include: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity - now primarily fossil fuel combustion - has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from [approximately] 280 to 355 [mu]L/L since 1800 and is likely to have climatic consequences and direct effects on biota in all terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered so that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity than by all natural pathways combined. Altering atmospheric chemistry and aquatic ecosystems, contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere, and has substantial regional effects on biological diversity. Finally, human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface, representing the most important component of global change now. Any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished, and ecological research should account for this reality. Certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate, and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale, there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However, much of the public believes the causes of global change to be uncertain and contentious. By speaking out effectively,the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change can be shifted. 135 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  14. The 'island effect' in terrestrial global change experiments: a problem with no solution?

    PubMed

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Fatichi, Simone; Cusens, Jarrod; Körner, Christian; Niklaus, Pascal A

    2015-01-01

    Most of the currently experienced global environmental changes (rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming, altered amount and pattern of precipitation, and increased nutrient load) directly or indirectly affect ecosystem surface energy balance and plant transpiration. As a consequence, the relative humidity of the air surrounding the vegetation changes, thus creating a feedback loop whose net effect on transpiration and finally productivity is not trivial to quantify. Forcedly, in any global change experiment with the above drivers, we can only treat small plots, or 'islands', of vegetation. This means that the treated plots will likely experience the ambient humidity conditions influenced by the surrounding, non-treated vegetation. Experimental assessments of global change effects will thus systematically lack modifications originating from these potentially important feedback mechanisms, introducing a bias of unknown magnitude in all measurements of processes directly or indirectly depending on plant transpiration. We call this potential bias the 'island effect'. Here, we discuss its implications in various global change experiments with plants. We also suggest ways to complement experiments using modelling approaches and observational studies. Ultimately, there is no obvious solution to deal with the island effect in field experiments and only models can provide an estimate of modification of responses by these feedbacks. However, we suggest that increasing the awareness of the island effect among both experimental researchers and modellers will greatly improve the interpretation of vegetation responses to global change. PMID:26216468

  15. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  16. Global temperature change

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

  17. Global change and mercury

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2013-01-01

    More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

  18. Space sensors for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Canavan, G.H.

    1994-02-15

    Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

  19. Global climate change and effects on Pacific Northwest salmonids: An exploratory case study

    SciTech Connect

    Shankle, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    Recently, a number of papers have addressed global warming and freshwater fisheries. The recent report to Congress by the US Environmental Protection Agency included an analysis of potential effects of global warming on fisheries of the Great Lakes, California, and the Southeast. In California, the report stated that salinity increases in the San Francisco Bay could enhance the abundance of marine fish species, while anadromous species could be adversely affected. This paper discusses global climate changes and the effects on Pacific Northwest Salmonids. The impacts of climate change or Spring Chinook production in the Yakima Sub-basin was simulated using a computer modeling system developed for the Northwest Power planning council. 35 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  20. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite

  1. Managing global change information

    SciTech Connect

    Stoss, F.W.

    1995-12-31

    Which human activities add to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), the greenhouse gas that may promote warming of the earth`s climate? How could CO{sub 2} emission restrictions change the use of fossil fuels? How would increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} likely effect climate? Can one see any evidence that the world is getting warmer? What coastal-zone areas are more sensitive to potential sea-level rise from an accelerated melting of glaciers? What is El Nino and how does it affect the earth`s climate? These are among the thousands of questions to which ORNL data analysts respond every year. Recently, the topic of global environmental change, including climate change, has grown in importance. At ORNL researchers have improved their understanding of the science underlying this major environmental issue. At the same time the Laboratory is playing a pivotal role in directing the data and information management activities for what some researchers consider the most information-intensive science project ever undertaken. Long one of the world`s leading energy R&D facilities, ORNL has more recently emerged as one of the preeminent environmental research centers in the world. Within ORNL`s Environmental Sciences Division, the Environmental Information Analysis Program was established to serve as a focal point for the assimilation of data related to global environmental change. The three major components of the program are the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Archive, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration`s Earth Observing System Data and Information System Distributed Active Archive Center, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). The World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases is located in CDIAC.

  2. Shifts in winter distribution in birds: effects of global warming and local habitat change.

    PubMed

    Valiela, Ivan; Bowen, Jennifer L

    2003-11-01

    As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming. PMID:14703907

  3. Technology and Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  4. Predicting effects of global climate change on reservoir water quality and fish habitat

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, L H; Railsback, S F

    1989-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the use of general circulation models (GCMs) for assessing global climate change effects on reservoir water quality and illustrates that general conclusions about the effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations on water resources can be made by using GCMs. These conclusions are based on GCM predictions of the climatic effects of doubling CO{sub 2} concentrations (the 2 {times} CO{sub 2} scenario). We also point out inadequacies in using information from GCM output alone to simulate reservoir water quality effects of climate change. Our investigation used Douglas Lake, a large multipurpose reservoir in eastern Tennessee, as an example. We studied water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO), important water quality parameters that are expected to respond to a changed climate. Finally, we used the temperature and DO requirements of striped bass as an indicator of biological effects of combined changes in temperature and DO. 3 refs., 1 fig.

  5. Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, S.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.; Streets, D. G.

    2006-12-01

    We investigate the effects of 2000-2050 global change in climate and anthropogenic emissions on ozone air quality (with a focus on North America) using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by meteorological fields from the NASA/GISS GCM. We separate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions through sensitivity simulations where only climate or the anthropogenic emissions are allowed to change. Natural emissions in the model change in response to changing climate. We find that with constant, 1990s anthropogenic emissions, the global mean burdens of tropospheric ozone and OH do not change significantly due to 2000-2050 climate change, reflecting the compensating effects from increasing water vapor and natural emissions, especially NOx from lightning and isoprene from vegetation. The effects from climate change also include 1) an increase in summer afternoon surface ozone levels by 2-5 ppb over the eastern U.S. and in southern California, 2) an increase of ~30% in the number of summer days with high ozone (> 80 ppb) days over large areas of the eastern U.S. Air quality in the northeast U.S. is especially sensitive to climate change, due to higher temperatures, fewer and weaker cyclones, and lower mixing depths in the future climate over that region. The lower mixing depths are likely due to stronger subsidence. In a sensitivity study with anthropogenic emissions set to zero in North America and to present-day levels elsewhere, background ozone decreases slightly, by 1-3 ppb over eastern U.S. and 0-2 ppb over western U.S. in summer, indicating less intercontinental transport due to weaker atmospheric circulation and shorter ozone lifetime in the future climate. In a simulation with constant climate and changing anthropogenic emissions, afternoon surface ozone in the U.S. decline by up to 10 ppb in summer due to projected domestic emission controls by 2050, but background ozone increases by 2-5 ppb due to increasing intercontinental

  6. Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, Eric J; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z; Sturtevant, Brian R; Scheller, Robert M

    2010-04-01

    Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation. PMID:20437957

  7. Solar influences on global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

  8. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  9. Global atmospheric changes.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation. PMID:1820255

  10. The coming health crisis: indirect health effects of global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bernstein, Aaron

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change threatens the health of hundreds of millions of people. While much has been written about the direct impacts of climate change on health as a result of more severe storms, more intense heat stress, changes in the distribution of infectious disease, and reduced air quality, we are concerned that the indirect impacts of a disrupted climate system may be orders of magnitude more important in terms of the human suffering they cause. Because these indirect effects will result from changes in biophysical systems, which are inherently complex, there is significant uncertainty about their magnitude, timing, and location. However, the uncertainty that shrouds this issue should not be cause for complacency; rather it should serve as an organizing principle for adaptation to its ill effects. PMID:21399764

  11. Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa.

    PubMed

    Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

    2012-02-01

    Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

  12. Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

    PubMed Central

    Ingels, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Ann; Brandt, Angelika; Catarino, Ana I; David, Bruno; De Ridder, Chantal; Dubois, Philippe; Gooday, Andrew J; Martin, Patrick; Pasotti, Francesca; Robert, Henri

    2012-01-01

    Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed. PMID:22423336

  13. Plant-mediated and nonadditive effects of two global change drivers on an insect herbivore community.

    PubMed

    de Sassi, Claudio; Lewis, Owen T; Tylianakis, Jason M

    2012-08-01

    Warmer temperatures can alter the phenology and distribution of individual species. However, differences across species may blur community-level phenological responses to climate or cause biotic homogenization by consistently favoring certain taxa. Additionally, the response of insect communities to climate will be subject to plant-mediated effects, which may or may not overshadow the direct effect of rising temperatures on insects. Finally, recent evidence for the importance of interaction effects between global change drivers suggests that phenological responses of communities to climate may be altered by other drivers. We used a natural temperature gradient (generated by elevation and topology), combined with experimental nitrogen fertilization, to investigate the effects of elevated temperature and globally increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on the structure and phenology of a seminatural grassland herbivore assemblage (lepidopteran insects). We found that both drivers, alone and in combination, severely altered how the relative abundance and composition of species changed through time. Importantly, warmer temperatures were associated with biotic homogenization, such that herbivore assemblages in the warmest plots had more similar species composition than those in intermediate or cool plots. Changes in herbivore composition and abundance were largely mediated by changes in the plant community, with increased nonnative grass cover under high treatment levels being the strongest determinant of herbivore abundance. In addition to compositional changes, total herbivore biomass more than doubled under elevated nitrogen and increased more than fourfold with temperature, bearing important functional implications for herbivores as consumers and as a prey resource. The crucial role of nonnative plant dominance in mediating responses of herbivores to change, combined with the frequent nonadditive (positive and negative) effects of the two drivers, and the

  14. Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-01-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, estimated to be 193 Tg N yr-1 in 2010 which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current trajectories, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion related emissions implemented. Some N cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in surface temperature of 5 °C even in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 132 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of changes in aerosol composition combined with changes in temperature. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10 and human health effects globally as well as eutrophication and climate effects. The volatility of NH4NO3 and rapid dry deposition of the vapour phase dissociation products, HNO3 and NH3, is estimated to be reducing the transport

  15. Understanding the effects of global change on ecosystems of the Sonoran Desert

    SciTech Connect

    Halvorson, W.L. )

    1993-06-01

    The Global Change program for the Sonoran Desert just began in March 1992. Currently, two projects are being directly funded by the National Park Service and we are coordinating with research of other agencies. One thrust of the program is to understand the effect of climate on species growth, abundances and distribution. This will be done using a number of methods. One is growth ring analysis of conifers on mountain ranges in and bordering the Sonoran Desert. Another study will relate the USGS Desert Laboratory data base on plant species distributions to a mesoscale climate model. Other programs that we are coordinating with include a USGS Desert Laboratory project to study long term changes in plant communities of the southwest using a comparison of photos from the early 1930s, early 1960s and early 1990s. Other agencies have active global climate research at The University of Arizona and we are working to coordinate the NPS program with these at the investigator level through participation in a university-wide Global Change Committee.

  16. Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (SAP 4.6)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced the final report entitled, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6: Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems . This Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) focuses on impacts of global climate change, es...

  17. Future Global Change and Cognition.

    PubMed

    Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    The 11 articles in this issue explore how people respond to climate change and other global challenges. The articles pursue three broad strands of enquiry that relate (1) to the effects and causes of "skepticism" about climate change, (2) the purely cognitive challenges that are posed by a complex scientific issue, and (3) the ways in which climate change can be communicated to a wider audience. Cognitive science can contribute to understanding people's responses to global challenges in many ways, and it may also contribute to implementing solutions to those problems. PMID:26749304

  18. Global effects of changes in wind forcing of Southern Indian Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Altman, D.B. ); Semtner, A.J. ); Chervin, R.M. )

    1990-01-09

    An identical twin numerical experiment has been performed using the global ocean circulation model of Semtner and Chervin. The wind forcing within a band of 120[degree] East [+-] 45[degrees] and 50[degrees] South [+-] 5[degrees] was varied smoothly in space and time to be approximately 4% greater for the twin run than the original. The twin experiment was run for 60 model days. Within nine days small changes of mass transport of the N. Guiana current were observed. Within 24 days changes appeared in mass transport of Pacific Equatorial Rossby waves, and after 60 days mass transport changes were seen in all ocean basins. Within three days small differences in 160 m (mid-thermocline) temperature appeared in the Atlantic basin. Within thirty days, similar changes were evident globally. Similar results were found for mid-thermocline horizontal velocity. These results imply a predictability limit to the accuracy of ocean circulation models due to rapid communication of wave energy between ocean basins. Changes to Pacific Equatorial Rossby wave transport imply possible effects on El Nino by Southern Indian Ocean winds via oceanic coupling.

  19. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface- and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Tang, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources by performing simulations of the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical climate simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping were calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects on SW/GW: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions of SW, suggesting that intensive irrigation water use has the potential to further exacerbate low-flow conditions, increasing vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand in the regions equipped for irrigation across the world. The increase in demand combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply will cause more severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although the effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for

  20. Effects of global change in the Czech Part of the River Elbe Basin and adaptation options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Hagen; Kaltofen, Michael; Kaden, Stefan; Grünewald, Uwe

    2010-05-01

    In Integrated Water Resources Management planning the effects of changing natural conditions (natural water availability) and socio-economic development (water demand) must be taken into consideration. Climate change will influence the water availability. In some sectors, e.g. agricultural irrigation, also the water demand is influenced by climatic conditions. Both, the development of natural water availability and water demand, are connected with certain levels of uncertainty. Therefore, scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change are required for Integrated Water Resources Management planning. The river Elbe basin (catchment area approximately 150,000 km²) is located in central Europe. The river Elbe basin is a trans boundary river basin. One third is located in the Czech Republic upstream of Germany, where two thirds of the basin is located. Therefore, inflows from the Czech part are important for instance for navigation in the German part. For navigation an inflow to Germany of 100 m3/s is required. Due to climate change the inflows are expected to decline. In the project GLOWA-Elbe a water management model for the whole river Elbe basin was developed. The model for the Czech part includes among others 52 reservoirs, 20 thermoelectric power plants, 70 hydroelectric power plants, 30 industrial users, 15 agricultural irrigation users, 40 public water utilities, and 160 waste water treatment plants. Two global socio-economic trends are renationalized and used in the simulations. Renationalized climate data are used to simulate the effects of climate change on natural discharges. Using the water management model the effects of global change on inflows from the Czech Republic to Germany are simulated. Using this model is it analyzed, if reservoir management in the Czech part can sustain a required inflow of 100 m3/s to Germany.

  1. Global climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Severinghaus, J P

    1999-08-31

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  2. Global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    1999-01-01

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  3. Effects of interactive global changes on methane uptake in an annual grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blankinship, Joseph C.; Brown, Jamie R.; Dijkstra, Paul; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2010-06-01

    The future size of the terrestrial methane (CH4) sink of upland soils remains uncertain, along with potential feedbacks to global warming. Much of the uncertainty lies in our lack of knowledge about potential interactive effects of multiple simultaneous global environmental changes. Field CH4 fluxes and laboratory soil CH4 consumption were measured five times during 3 consecutive years in a California annual grassland exposed to 8 years of the full factorial combination of ambient and elevated levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and N deposition. Across all sampling dates and treatments, increased precipitation caused a 61% reduction in field CH4 uptake. However, this reduction depended quantitatively on other global change factors. Higher precipitation reduced CH4 uptake when temperature or N deposition (but not both) increased, and under elevated CO2 but only late in the growing season. Warming alone also decreased CH4 uptake early in the growing season, which was partly explained by a decrease in laboratory soil CH4 consumption. Atmospheric CH4 models likely need to incorporate nonadditive interactions, seasonal interactions, and interactions between methanotrophy and methanogenesis. Despite the complexity of interactions we observed in this multifactor experiment, the outcome agrees with results from single-factor experiments: an increased terrestrial CH4 sink appears less likely than a reduced one.

  4. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e

  5. Interactive effects of global change factors on soil respiration and its components: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Lingyan; Zhou, Xuhui; Shao, Junjiong; Nie, Yuanyuan; He, Yanghui; Jiang, Liling; Wu, Zhuoting; Hosseini Bai, Shahla

    2016-09-01

    As the second largest carbon (C) flux between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, soil respiration (Rs) plays vital roles in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]) and climatic dynamics in the earth system. Although numerous manipulative studies and a few meta-analyses have been conducted to determine the responses of Rs and its two components [i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration] to single global change factors, the interactive effects of the multiple factors are still unclear. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of 150 multiple-factor (≥2) studies to examine the main and interactive effects of global change factors on Rs and its two components. Our results showed that elevated [CO2 ] (E), nitrogen addition (N), irrigation (I), and warming (W) induced significant increases in Rs by 28.6%, 8.8%, 9.7%, and 7.1%, respectively. The combined effects of the multiple factors, EN, EW, DE, IE, IN, IW, IEW, and DEW, were also significantly positive on Rs to a greater extent than those of the single-factor ones. For all the individual studies, the additive interactions were predominant on Rs (90.6%) and its components (≈70.0%) relative to synergistic and antagonistic ones. However, the different combinations of global change factors (e.g., EN, NW, EW, IW) indicated that the three types of interactions were all important, with two combinations for synergistic effects, two for antagonistic, and five for additive when at least eight independent experiments were considered. In addition, the interactions of elevated [CO2 ] and warming had opposite effects on Ra and Rh, suggesting that different processes may influence their responses to the multifactor interactions. Our study highlights the crucial importance of the interactive effects among the multiple factors on Rs and its components, which could inform regional and global models to assess the climate-biosphere feedbacks and improve predictions of the future states of the

  6. Effects of UV-B and global climate change on Rice: First annual program progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Olszyk, D.M.; Bachelet, D.; Holmann, S.; Fisher, K.; Heong, K.L.

    1992-12-01

    The document describes the first year of research by the Rice Research Program conducted cooperatively at the Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis (ERL-C), Oregon, USA; and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) at Los Banos, the Philippines. It covers the period of 1 October, 1990 through 30 September, 1991. The first year of the program saw significant accomplishments in setting up the administrative framework for the program, refining the research objectives, and initiating the research. However, this was only the beginning. The next four years of the project will include intensive modeling and research activities to assess the effects of UV-B radiation and global climate change on rice productivity.

  7. Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

    PubMed Central

    Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2016-01-01

    A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established. PMID:27386957

  8. Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters.

    PubMed

    Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K; Hansson, Lars-Anders

    2016-01-01

    A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established. PMID:27386957

  9. Global change research highlights

    SciTech Connect

    Krause, C.

    1995-12-31

    Wood - the fuel source of the past - is expected to be a fuel source of the future. Fast growing trees are being cloned and nurtured for conversion to biofuels to replace or supplement gasoline for transportation. The future may also bring higher temperatures and drought if global climate changes as predicted. So, it seems practical to raise fastgrowing trees that not only provide fuel by capturing carbon from the atmosphere (helping to deter climate change) but also flourish under dry conditions. A recent ORNL finding has bearing on this goal. Hybrid willow trees have been cloned because they grow fast and serve as good fuel sources. However, there are important gender differences. Male willow clones are generally more tolerant of drought than female willows. Also, male willows cause no weed problems because they do not disperse seeds. In addition research work has looked at the impact of enhanced carbon dioxide environments on the growth of trees and the potential sequestering of carbon dioxide into the trees or soils. Scientists have found that ground-level ozone in the environment can reduce the growth of the loblolly pine, a forest tree species of great economic importance in the Southeast. It is predicted that global warming could lead to changes in regional precipitation, even periods of drought. How would climate change affect the growth of forest trees? This is a question ORNL has been attempting to answer. Geologic records have been studied by means of isotope ratio techniques to study reasons for vegetation changes in the past. The question is what was the reason for these changes.

  10. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  11. Global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Corell, R.W.; Anderson, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    Fifty years ago the buzz words in science were [open quotes]atomic energy,[close quotes] and the general mood of the public, in those more naive days, was that the earth is so large that it could take any kind of human abuse. The advance of science and technology since then has proved that this is not the case. It is now common sense, even to the layperson, that the earth's environment is delicate and needs careful protection if future generations are to enjoy it. The buzz words now are [open quotes]global change.[close quotes] This book is the outcome of the Workshop on the Science of Global Environmental Change sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is one of the NATO's Advanced Science Institute Series books. It is essentially a collection of the lectures given in the workshop. The workshop was apparently not intended for in-depth scientific discussions but to review the overall current research situation and to identify future research needs. Accordingly, the papers collected in this volume are basically of this nature.

  12. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  13. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  14. Potential effects of global climate change on the United States. Appendix A. Water resources. Report to the Congress

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, J.B.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1989-05-01

    Topics of discussion include: Interpretation of hydrologic effects of climate change in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California; Methods for evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change: case studies of the State of California and Atlanta, Georgia; The impacts of climate change on the salinity of San Francisco Bay; Effects of climate changes on the Laurentian Great Lakes levels; Impact of global warming on Great Lakes ice cycles; Potential climate changes to the Lake Michigan thermal structure; The effects of climate warming on Lake Erie water quality; Impacts of global warming on runoff in the upper Chattahoochee River Basin; and Potential impacts of climate change on the Tennessee Valley Authority Reservoir system.

  15. Biogeochemical effects of global change on U.S. National Parks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrmann, R.; Stottlemyer, R.; Zak, J.C.; Edmonds, R.L.; Van Miegroet, H.

    2000-01-01

    Federal parks and other public lands have unique mandates and rules regulating their use and conservation. Because of variation in their response to local, regional, and global-scale disturbance, development of mitigation strategies requires substantial research in the context of long-term inventory and monitoring. In 1982, the National Park Service began long-term, watershed-level studies in a series of national parks. The objective was to provide a more comprehensive database against which the effects of global change and other issues could be quantified. A subset of five sites in North Carolina, Texas, Washington, Michigan, and Alaska, is examined here. During the last 50 years, temperatures have declined at the southern sites and increased at the northern sites with the greatest increase in Alaska. Only the most southern site has shown an increase in precipitation amount. The net effect of these trends, especially for the most northern and southern sites, would likely be an increase in the growing season and especially the time soil processes could continue without moisture or temperature limitations. During the last 18 years, there were few trends in atmospheric ion inputs. The most evident was the decline in SO42- deposition. There were no significant relationships between ion input and stream water output. This finding suggests other factors as modification of precipitation or canopy throughfall by soil processes, hydrologic flow path, and snowmelt rates are major processes regulating stream water chemical outputs.

  16. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future. PMID:23789087

  17. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  18. FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks

    Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research

    Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health

    NRMRL

    R...

  19. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  20. COMBINED AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOXICANTS ON POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES

    PubMed Central

    Moe, S Jannicke; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Clements, William H; Sorensen, Mary T; Van den Brink, Paul J; Liess, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator–prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:49–61. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147390

  1. Effects of global change on hydro-geomorphological hazards in Mediterranean rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean river basins are characterized by high (often extreme) temporal variability in precipitation, and hence discharge. Mediterranean countries are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods and extended droughts in the Mediterranean region; both floods and droughts are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so, major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Water resources in the Mediterranean region is subjected to rising pressures, becoming a key issue for all governments (i.e. clear imbalance between the available water resources and the increasing water demand related to increasing human population). Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazard from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes all physical conditions that influence the conveyance of water and sediments, and the river's capacity (i.e. amount of sediment) and competence (i.e. channel deformation) that, in turn, will influence physical conditions of a given point in the river network. This is the framework of the present work; it is directed to develop an integrated approach which both improves our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change, and addresses the associated hazards of fluvial environmental change.

  2. Bibliography of global change, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

  3. Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (Sap 4.6)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has released the draft document, Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems for public review and comment. The notice has been posted by NOAA/ Department of Commerce on behalf of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCS...

  4. Global Change in the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  5. Global change effects on Bromus tectorum L. (Poaceae) at its high-elevation range margin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Concilio, Amy L.; Loik, Michael E.; Belnap, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    Global change is likely to affect invasive species distribution, especially at range margins. In the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA, the invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum, is patchily distributed and its impacts have been minimal compared with other areas of the Intermountain West. We used a series of in situ field manipulations to determine how B. tectorum might respond to changing climatic conditions and increased nitrogen deposition at the high-elevation edge of its invaded range. Over 3 years, we used snow fences to simulate changes in snowpack, irrigation to simulate increased frequency and magnitude of springtime precipitation, and added nitrogen (N) at three levels (0, 5, and 10 g m-2) to natural patches of B. tectorum growing under the two dominant shrubs, Artemisia tridentata and Purshia tridentata, and in intershrub spaces (INTR). We found that B. tectorum seedling density in April was lower following deeper snowpack possibly due to delayed emergence, yet there was no change in spikelet production or biomass accumulation at the time of harvest. Additional spring rain events increased B. tectorum biomass and spikelet production in INTR plots only. Plants were primarily limited by water in 2009, but colimited by N and water in 2011, possibly due to differences in antecedent moisture conditions at the time of treatments. The threshold at which N had an effect varied with magnitude of water additions. Frequency of rain events was more influential than magnitude in driving B. tectorum growth and fecundity responses. Our results suggest that predicted shifts from snow to rain could facilitate expansion of B. tectorum at high elevation depending on timing of rain events and level of N deposition. We found evidence for P-limitation at this site and an increase in P-availability with N additions, suggesting that stoichiometric relationships may also influence B. tectorum spread.

  6. The Prairie States Forestry Project as a Model for an Effective Global Climate Change Mitigation Project

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is an increasing sense of urgency surrounding global climate change and a growing consensus that significant measures are warranted and should be implemented in a timely manner. Reforestation, afforestation, and soil carbon sequestration are three land management strategies among the suite of ...

  7. The effect of global climate change on sea level variations along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore

    SciTech Connect

    Mungov, G.; Vesselinov, V.

    1996-12-31

    Data of long-time sea level records along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore are analyzed from the point of view of the global climate change. The analysis of the extreme levels discovers an increase of their appearance during the last 15 years. Two different periods are studied and the recent increases imply the possibility of changes in the regime of the extreme marine events in the Western Black Sea. The cycles in the mean sea levels and the statistical characteristics of the interannual (seasonal) variations are determined. Trends in the sea level records are studied for three basic periods, according the periods in the annual temperature anomalies of the northern hemisphere: 1924--1943; 1944--1973; 1974--1991. The mean sea level rise has maximum value during the first period and minimum during the last third one. This is explained with the decrease of the water inflow into the sea and some initial disturbances in its water balance due to the global climate change. The influence of the global climate change is studied using multiple regression on global environmental data.

  8. Effects of global climate change on the allocation of defense metabolites

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global climate change is expected to alter various abiotic factors, of which precipitation patterns is of most concern. When plants experience stress, the optimal defense theory suggests that plants will use their energy on defending the more vital plant tissues. For example, to a plant experiencing...

  9. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

  10. Chemical evidences of the effects of global change in high elevation lakes in Central Himalaya, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tartari, Gianni; Lami, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Salerno, Franco

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that the lakes integrate the pressure of their surrounding terrestrial environment and the climatic variability. Both the water column and sediments are capable to accumulate signals of global change, such as warming of the deep layers or mutation of diverse biological records (e.g., fossil diatoms) and the nutrient loads variability affecting the trophic state. Typically, the biological responses to climate change have been studied in several types of lakes, while documented changes in water chemistry are much rare. A long term study of 20 high altitude lakes located in central southern Himalaya (Mt Everest) conducted since the 90s has highlighted a general change in the chemical composition of the lake water: a substantial rise in the ionic content was observed, particularly pronounced in the case of sulphate. In a couple of these lakes, monitored on an annual basis, the sulphate concentrations increased over 4-fold. A change in the composition of atmospheric wet deposition, as well as a possible influence of decrease in seasonal snow cover duration, which could have exposed larger basin surfaces to alteration processes, were excluded. The chemical changes proved to be mainly related to the sulphide oxidation processes occurring in the bedrocks or the hydrographic basins. In particular, the oxidation processes, considered as the main factor causing the sulphate increase, occurred in subglacial environments characterized by higher glacier velocities causing higher glacier shrinkage. Associated to this mechanism, the exposure of fresh mineral surfaces to the atmosphere may have contributed also to increases in the alkalinity of lakes. Weakened monsoon of the past two decades may have partially contributed to the solute enrichment of the lakes through runoff waters. The almost synchronous response of the lakes studied, which differs in terms of the presence of glaciers in their basins, highlights the fact that the increasing ionic content of lake

  11. Soil management system for water conservation and mitigation of global change effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ospina, A.; Florentino, A.; Lorenzo, V.

    2012-04-01

    One of the main constraints in rained agriculture is the water availability for plant growth which depends largely on the ability of the soil to allow water flow, infiltration and its storage. In Venezuela, the interaction between aggressive climatic conditions, highly susceptible soils and inadequate management systems have caused soil degradation which together with global change threatened the food production sustainability. To address this problem, we need to implement conservationist management strategies that improve infiltration rate, permeability and water holding capacity in soil and reduce water loss by protecting the soil surface. In order to study the impact of different management systems on soil water balance in a Fluventic Haplustept, the effects of 11 years of tillage and crops rotation management were evaluated in a long term field experiment located in Turén (Portuguesa state). The evaluated tillage systems were no tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) and crop rotation treatments were maize (Zea mays)-cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) and maize-bean (Vigna unguiculata). Treatments were established in plots arranged in a randomized block design with three replicates. The gravimetric moisture content was determined in the upper 20 cm of soil, at eight different sampling dates. Results showed increased in time of the water availability with the use of tillage and corn-cotton rotation and, better protection of the soil against raindrop impact with crop residues. Water retention capacity also increased and improved structural condition on soil surface such as infiltration, storage and water flow distribution in the rooting zone. We conclude that these strategies of land use and management would contribute to mitigate the climate change effects on food production in this region of Venezuela. Key words: Soil quality; rained agriculture; plant water availability

  12. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  13. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  14. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global changes in ecological drivers, such as CO2 concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, but a coherent theory of global change has not yet been developed. We outline the characteristics of a theory of gl...

  15. The Canadian Global Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Lefrancois, C.; Maillette, L. )

    1994-06-01

    Global change affects climate and many other processes of the biosphere, atmosphere, geosphere, oceans and human societies. The Canadian Global Change Program (CGCP) is a multidisciplinary body established in 1985 by the Royal Society of Canada. The CGCP stimulates research projects, acts as national link to international programs such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, assists in policy formulation, maintains a database of global change activities in Canada, and promotes awareness of global change issues among researchers, policy makers, educators, and the general public. The importance of human societies as forcing functions of global change is integrated in the activities of the CGCP (e.g. long-term ecosystem monitoring, reduction of greenhouse gas emission, population growth and resource use). CGCP publications include a quarterly newsletter (DELTA), overviews of major issues, policy recommendations, proceedings of workshops and conferences, and documents destined to educators.

  16. Global climatic change effects on irrigation requirements for the Central Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Rising carbon dioxide and other green house gasses (water vapor, nitrous oxide, methane, etc.) are predicted to have an effect on future climates. These gasses impact crops and global and local weather. The carbon dioxide increase is generally considered to be favorable to agriculture as it increas...

  17. Space Observations for Global Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rasool, S. I.

    1991-01-01

    There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

  18. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory interests and capabilities for research on the ecological effects of global climatic and atmospheric change

    SciTech Connect

    Amthor, J.S.; Houpis, J.L.; Kercher, J.R.; Ledebuhr, A.; Miller, N.L.; Penner, J.E.; Robison, W.L.; Taylor, K.E.

    1994-09-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has interests and capabilities in all three types of research that must be conducted in order to understand and predict effects of global atmospheric and climatic (i.e., environmental) changes on ecological systems and their functions (ecosystem function is perhaps most conveniently defined as mass and energy exchange and storage). These three types of research are: (1) manipulative experiments with plants and ecosystems; (2) monitoring of present ecosystem, landscape, and global exchanges and pools of energy, elements, and compounds that play important roles in ecosystem function or the physical climate system, and (3) mechanistic (i.e., hierarchic and explanatory) modeling of plant and ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Specific experimental programs, monitoring plans, and modeling activities related to evaluation of ecological effects of global environmental change that are of interest to, and that can be carried out by LLNL scientists are outlined. Several projects have the distinction of integrating modeling with empirical studies resulting in an Integrated Product (a model or set of models) that DOE or any federal policy maker could use to assess ecological effects. The authors note that any scheme for evaluating ecological effects of atmospheric and climatic change should take into account exceptional or sensitive species, in particular, rare, threatened, or endangered species.

  19. [Effects of global climate change on the ecological characteristics and biogeochemical significance of marine viruses--A review].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yunlan; Cai, Lanlan; Zhang, Rui

    2015-09-01

    As the most abundance biological agents in the oceans, viruses can influence the physiological and ecological characteristics of host cells through viral infections and lysis, and affect the nutrient and energy cycles of the marine food chain. Thus, they are the major players in the ocean biogeochemical processes. The problems caused by global climate changes, such as sea-surface warming, acidification, nutrients availability, and deoxygenation, have the potential effects on marine viruses and subsequently their ecological and biogeochemical function in the ocean. Here, we reviewed the potential impacts of global climate change on the ecological characteristics (e. g. abundance, distribution, life cycle and the host-virus interactions) and biogeochemical significance (e. g. carbon cycling) of marine viruses. We proposed that marine viruses should not be ignored in the global climate change study. PMID:26762022

  20. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-06-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.

  1. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  2. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  3. Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

    PubMed

    Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-11-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. PMID:26336258

  4. Climate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, John M.

    The media preoccupation with El Nino and recent weather calamities suggests that nearly everyone should be aware, at least at a superficial level, of the possibilities for global climate changes. Endless articles in the popular press and scientific journal literature have reported a plethora of possible climate change outcomes, supported of course by a judicious selection of observations and reference citations. All this speculation has given rise to assertions that the scientific community is struggling with an uncomfortable dichotomy between genuine and justified concern versus enhanced budgets and notoriety that come with dire scenarios. Perhaps the climate-change research community is second only to the medical research community in having its credibility shaken by premature airing of uncertain findings.

  5. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  6. GLOBAL CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The influence of global change on future water resources is difficult to predict because various components are likely to be affected in opposing ways. Global warming would tend to increase evapotranspiration (ET) rates and irrigation water requirements, while increasing precipitation would both dec...

  7. Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies.

    PubMed

    Perring, Michael P; De Frenne, Pieter; Baeten, Lander; Maes, Sybryn L; Depauw, Leen; Blondeel, Haben; Carón, María M; Verheyen, Kris

    2016-04-01

    One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions. PMID:26546049

  8. Cosmic-Ray Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Q.-B.

    2013-07-01

    This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 25 % of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850-1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96-0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total

  9. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Human-caused global changes in ecological drivers, such as carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, as well as direct human impacts (land use change, species movements and extinctions, etc.) are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, ...

  10. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  11. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  12. Global change research budget frozen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    For FY 1996, the interagency budget request for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) totals $2.156 billion, or a 1.8% ($39 million) increase over FY 1995. President Clinton has broadened the scope of the program to include another $358 million in reprogrammed activities in keeping with a push by the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research (CENR) to more closely link costs and objectives. In essence, the increase for what could be considered the “traditional” global change budget would be only 1.4%, or $24 million over the FY 1995 appropriation. USGCRP now embraces the Department of Energy (DoE) research on environmental technologies, NASA launch vehicle charges, and additional Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) research for environmental issues other than global change.

  13. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested. PMID:18991898

  14. Effects of global climate change and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanz-Lázaro, C.; Valdemarsen, T.; Holmer, M.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems, where sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios especially when the interactions among drivers may not be just additive. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient release from coastal sediments to the water column in a mesocosm experiment. PO43- release rates from sediments followed the same trends as organic matter mineralization rates, and increased linearly with temperature and were significantly higher under organic pollution than under non-polluted conditions. NH4+ release only increased significantly when the temperature rise was above 6 °C, and was significantly higher in organic polluted compared to non-polluted sediments. Nutrient release to the water column was only a fraction from the mineralized organic matter, suggesting PO43- retention and NH4+ oxidation in the sediment. Bioturbation and bioirrigation appeared to be key processes responsible of this behaviour. Considering that the primary production of most marine basins is N-limited, the excess release of NH4+ at temperature rise >6 ° could enhance water column primary productivity, which may lead to the deterioration of the environmental quality. Climate change effects are expected to be accelerated in areas affected by organic pollution.

  15. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  16. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  17. Public health impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Hales, S; Weinstein, P; Woodward, A

    1997-01-01

    The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally. PMID:9406290

  18. Hybridization and hybrid speciation under global change.

    PubMed

    Vallejo-Marín, Mario; Hiscock, Simon J

    2016-09-01

    Contents 1170 I. 1170 II. 1172 III. 1175 IV. 1180 V. 1183 1184 References 1184 SUMMARY: An unintended consequence of global change is an increase in opportunities for hybridization among previously isolated lineages. Here we illustrate how global change can facilitate the breakdown of reproductive barriers and the formation of hybrids, drawing on the flora of the British Isles for insight. Although global change may ameliorate some of the barriers preventing hybrid establishment, for example by providing new ecological niches for hybrids, it will have limited effects on environment-independent post-zygotic barriers. For example, genic incompatibilities and differences in chromosome numbers and structure within hybrid genomes are unlikely to be affected by global change. We thus speculate that global change will have a larger effect on eroding pre-zygotic barriers (eco-geographical isolation and phenology) than post-zygotic barriers, shifting the relative importance of these two classes of reproductive barriers from what is usually seen in naturally produced hybrids where pre-zygotic barriers are the largest contributors to reproductive isolation. Although the long-term fate of neo-hybrids is still to be determined, the massive impact of global change on the dynamics and distribution of biodiversity generates an unprecedented opportunity to study large numbers of unpredicted, and often replicated, hybridization 'experiments', allowing us to peer into the birth and death of evolutionary lineages. PMID:27214560

  19. Global Change Education Resource Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortensen, Lynn L., Ed.

    This guide is intended as an aid to educators who conduct programs and activities on climate and global change issues for a variety of audiences. The selected set of currently available materials are appropriate for both formal and informal programs in environmental education and can help frame and clarify some of the key issues associated with…

  20. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boysen, L. R.; Brovkin, V.; Arora, V. K.; Cadule, P.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Kato, E.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.

    2014-04-01

    Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC) contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period, 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  1. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change

  2. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    SciTech Connect

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-08-25

    In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact

  3. GLOBAL CHANGE MULTI-YEAR PLAN

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Research Act of 1990 establishes the U.S. Global Change Research Program to coordinate a comprehensive research program on global change. This is an inter-Agency effort, with EPA bearing responsibility to assess the consequences of global change on human health,...

  4. Interactive effects of global and regional change on a coastal ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reise, Karsten; van Beusekom, Justus E. E.

    2008-03-01

    Shallow waters and lowland meet at the same level in the Wadden Sea, but are separated by walls of coastal defense. What are the prospects of this coastal ecosystem in a warmer world? We focus on tidal waters and inshore sedimentary bottoms, expect nutrient supply from land to decline and species introductions, temperature and sea level to rise. The effects are interrelated and will have an increasing likelihood of abrupt and irreversible developments. The biotic interactions are hardly predictable but we anticipate the following changes to be more likely than others: blooms of phytoplankton will be weak mainly because of increasing pelagic and benthic grazing pressure, both facilitated by warming. Possibly birds feeding on mollusks will encounter decreasing resource availability while fish-eaters benefit. Extensive reefs of Pacific oysters could facilitate aquatic macrophytes. Sea level rise and concomitant hydrodynamics above tidal flats favor well-anchored suspension feeders as well as burrowing fauna adapted to dynamic permeable sand. With high shares of immigrants from overseas and the south, species richness will increase; yet the ecosystem stability may become lower. We suggest that for the next decades invasions of introduced species followed by warming and declining nutrient supply will be the most pressing factor on the changes in the Wadden Sea ecosystem, and the effects of sea level rise to be the key issue on the scale of the whole century and beyond.

  5. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON MANGROVE ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mangrove ecosystems perhaps represent the most diverse combination of floral, faunal and physical elements among coastal habitats. angrove forests are globally widespread in the tropics and subtropics and provide a dynamic interface between the sea and the land. angrove ecosystem...

  6. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analyzing Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (1) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (3) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater (GW) for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of water supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts.

  7. Interpreting the rich-get-richer effect in precipitation change under global warming: issues at monsoon scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelin, J.; Langenbrunner, B.; Meyerson, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation changes under global warming are often discussed in terms of wet areas receiving more precipitation and dry areas receiving less, sometimes termed the "rich-get-richer" effect. Since the first use of this term, it has been known that contributions can be broken diagnostically into a relatively straightforward tendency associated with moisture increases acted on by the climatological circulation and dynamical feedbacks associated with changes in circulation. A number of studies indicate the latter to be prone to yield scatter in model projections of precipitation change. At the spatial scales of the major monsoon regions, substantial contributions from dynamical feedbacks tend to occur. Factors affecting this dependence will be reviewed with an eye to asking how the community can make succinct statements without oversimplifying the challenges at the regional scale.

  8. Deconvolving temperature and substrate effects on soil heterotrophic respiration under multiple global change factors in mixed grass prairie

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, C.; Nie, M.; Pendall, E. G.

    2013-12-01

    in temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition. Overall, the temperature sensitivity of the fast pool was highly sensitive to global change factors and their interactions. On the other hand, there were no differences in temperature sensitivity of the slow pool in response to the global change factors. Similarly, the base rate of the fast pool was sensitive to the global change factors, while the slow pool base rate was not. However, the overall size of the slow pool was significantly affected by the global change factors. Vegetation removal reduced the slow pool by ~19% across all warming x CO2 treatments. This effect was greatest under elevated CO2 (both warmed and control), but non-significant under ambient CO2 and temperature. Importantly, effects mediated through the vegetation were the primary factor determining whether slow pool C was gained or lost under elevated CO2 and warming. Our data-model fusion approach allowed us to deconvolve the effect of reduced substrate availability from temperature sensitivity, and to demonstrate that global change may lead to strong positive C cycling feedbacks.

  9. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  10. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  11. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  12. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    PubMed

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  13. Deep solar minimum and global Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdel Hady, Ahmed

    2012-07-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its likely impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 100 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activities are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  14. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  15. Information technology and global change science

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, F.P.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.

  16. Priming effect and microbial diversity in ecosystem functioning and response to global change: a modeling approach using the SYMPHONY model.

    PubMed

    Perveen, Nazia; Barot, Sébastien; Alvarez, Gaël; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Rapaport, Alain; Herfurth, Damien; Louault, Frédérique; Fontaine, Sébastien

    2014-04-01

    Integration of the priming effect (PE) in ecosystem models is crucial to better predict the consequences of global change on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and its feedbacks on climate. Over the last decade, many attempts have been made to model PE in soil. However, PE has not yet been incorporated into any ecosystem models. Here, we build plant/soil models to explore how PE and microbial diversity influence soil/plant interactions and ecosystem C and nitrogen (N) dynamics in response to global change (elevated CO2 and atmospheric N depositions). Our results show that plant persistence, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation, and low N leaching in undisturbed ecosystems relies on a fine adjustment of microbial N mineralization to plant N uptake. This adjustment can be modeled in the SYMPHONY model by considering the destruction of SOM through PE, and the interactions between two microbial functional groups: SOM decomposers and SOM builders. After estimation of parameters, SYMPHONY provided realistic predictions on forage production, soil C storage and N leaching for a permanent grassland. Consistent with recent observations, SYMPHONY predicted a CO2 -induced modification of soil microbial communities leading to an intensification of SOM mineralization and a decrease in the soil C stock. SYMPHONY also indicated that atmospheric N deposition may promote SOM accumulation via changes in the structure and metabolic activities of microbial communities. Collectively, these results suggest that the PE and functional role of microbial diversity may be incorporated in ecosystem models with a few additional parameters, improving accuracy of predictions. PMID:24339186

  17. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  18. Global change monitoring with lichens

    SciTech Connect

    Insarov, G.

    1997-12-31

    Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenetic influence. An ideal monitoring system enables quantification of the contemporary state of the environment and detect changes in it. An important function of monitoring is to assess environment quality of areas that are not affected by local anthropogenic impacts, i.e. background areas. In background areas terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as lowered air pollution and global climate change. Assessment of biotic responses to altered climatic and atmospheric conditions provides an important basis for ecosystem management and environmental decision making. Without the ability to make such assessment, sustainability of ecosystems as a support system for humans remains uncertain.

  19. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  20. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boysen, L. R.; Brovkin, V.; Arora, V. K.; Cadule, P.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Kato, E.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.

    2014-09-01

    Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  1. Main and interactive effects of multiple global-change factors on soil respiration and its components: a meta-analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Xuhui

    2014-05-01

    Global change usually involves simultaneous changes in multiple environmental factors, which may considerably affect ecosystem structure and functioning and alter ecosystem services to human society. With increased awareness of their potential interactions, some multi-factorial studies have been conducted to investigate their main and interactive effects on carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystem. However, how multiple global-change factors affected soil respiration (Rs) and its components (i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh)) remains controversial among individual studies. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the main and possible 2- or 3-factor interactive effects with warming (W), elevated CO2 (E), nitrogen addition (N), increased precipitation (I) and drought (D) on Rs and its components from 150 published papers. Our results show that E, W, I and N significantly stimulated Rs by 29.23%, 7.19%, 22.95%, and 16.90% (p<0.05), respectively, while I depressed it by 16.90% (p<0.01). E consistently induced a significant positive effect on both Ra and Rh, while I affected them with an opposite trend. Among nine two-way interactive effects on Rs, synergistic interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment > the additive effects of single two main factors) occurred in E×N, E×W, I×N, and D×W, while neutral interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment ≡ the additive one) and antagonistic interaction (i.e., the effect of combined treatment < the additive one)was rare, only in I×W for neutral one and in N×W and I×E for the latter. In addition, E×W and E×N displayed synergistic interactions on Rh. The more dominance of synergistic interactions in two-way interactive effects on Rs and Rh may determine a central positive tendency of Rs in future, and affect the feedback of terrestrial C cycle to the climate system correspondingly.

  2. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  3. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Shope, R

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  4. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shope, R

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  5. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Shope, R. )

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  6. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    SciTech Connect

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-10-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth`s surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference.

  7. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. PMID:26504130

  8. Effectively Communicating Information about Dynamically Changing Arctic Sea Ice to the Public through the Global Fiducials Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnia, B. F.; Friesen, B.; Wilson, E.; Noble, S.

    2015-12-01

    On July 15, 2009, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) released a report, Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Imagery Derived Products, advocating public release of Arctic images derived from classified data. In the NAS press release that announced the release, report lead Stephanie Pfirman states "To prepare for a possibly ice-free Arctic and its subsequent effects on the environment, economy, and national security, it is critical to have accurate projections of changes over the next several decades." In the same release NAS President Ralph Cicerone states "We hope that these images are the first of many that could help scientists learn how the changing climate could impact the environment and our society." The same day, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar announced that the requested images had been released and were available to the public on a US Geological Survey Global Fiducials Program (GFP) Library website (http://gfl.usgs.gov). The website was developed by the USGS to provide public access to the images and to support environmental analysis of global climate-related science. In the statement describing the release titled, Information Derived from Classified Materials Will Aid Understanding of Changing Climate, Secretary Salazar states "We need the best data from all places if we are to meet the challenges that rising carbon emissions are creating. This information will be invaluable to scientists, researchers, and the public as we tackle climate change." Initially about 700 Arctic sea ice images were released. Six years later, the number exceeds 1,500. The GFP continues to facilitate the acquisition of new Arctic sea ice imagery from US National Imagery Systems. This example demonstrates how information about dynamically changing Arctic sea ice continues to be effectively communicated to the public by the GFP. In addition to Arctic sea ice imagery, the GFP has publicly released imagery time series of more than 125 other environmentally important

  9. Urban Land Use Change Effects on Below and Aboveground Carbon Stocks—a Global Perspective and Future Research Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pouyat, R. V.; Chen, Y.; Yesilonis, I.; Day, S.

    2014-12-01

    Land use change (LUC) has a significant impact on both above- and below-ground carbon (C) stocks; however, little is known about the net effects of urban LUC on the C cycle and climate system. Moreover, as climate change becomes an increasingly pressing concern, there is growing evidence that urban policy and management decisions can have significant regional impacts on C dynamics. Soil organic carbon (SOC) varies significantly across ecoregions at global and continental scales due to differential sensitivity of primary production, substrate quality, and organic matter decay to changes in temperature and soil moisture. These factors are highly modified by urban LUC due to vegetation removal, soil relocation and disruption, pollution, urban heat island effects, and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. As a result, on a global scale urban LUC differentially affects the C cycle from ecoregion to ecoregion. For urban ecosystems, the data collected thus far suggests urbanization can lead to both an increase and decrease in soil C pools and fluxes, depending on the native ecosystem being impacted by urban development. For example, in drier climates, urban landscapes accumulate higher C densities than the native ecosystems they replaced. Results suggest also that soil C storage in urban ecosystems is highly variable with very high (> 20.0) and low (< 2.0) C densities (kg m-2 to a 1 m depth) present in the landscape at any one time. Moreover, similar to non-urban soils, total SOC densities are consistently 2-fold greater than aboveground stocks. For those soils with low SOC densities, there is potential to increase C sequestration through management, but specific urban related management practices need to be evaluated. In addition, urban LUC is a human-driven process and thus can be modified or adjusted to reduce its impacts on the C cycle. For example, policies that influence development patterns, population density, management practices, and other human factors can

  10. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  11. Forest health and global change.

    PubMed

    Trumbore, S; Brando, P; Hartmann, H

    2015-08-21

    Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide. PMID:26293952

  12. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  13. SCIENTIFIC LINKAGES IN GLOBAL CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the atmosphere, certain trace gases both promote global warming and deplete the ozone layer. he primary radiatively active trace gases, those that affect global warming, are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and tropospheric ozone. n the troposphere,...

  14. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  15. Clouds and Climate Change. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Glenn E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module introduces the basic features and classifications of clouds and cloud cover, and explains how clouds form, what they are made of, what roles they play in…

  16. Technologies for global change earth observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  17. Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

    PubMed

    Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. PMID:24874505

  18. Biomass burning a driver for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R. III; Cahoon, D.R. Jr.; Winstead, E.L.

    1995-03-01

    Recent research has identified another biospheric process that has instantaneous and longer term effects on the production of atmospheric gases: biomass burning. Biomass burning includes the burning of the world`s vegetation-forests, savannas. and agricultural lands, to clear the land and change its use. Only in the past decade have researchers realized the important contributions of biomass burning to the global budgets of many radiatively and chemically active gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide, tropospheric ozone, methyl chloride - and elemental carbon particulates. International field experiments and satellite data are yielding a clearer understanding of this important global source of atmospheric gases and particulates. It is seen that in addition to being a significant instantaneous global source of atmospheric gases and particulates, burning enhances the biogenic emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide from the world`s soils. Biomass burning affects the reflectivity and emissivity of the Earth`s surface as well as the hydrological cycle by changing rates of land evaporation and water runoff. For these reasons, it appears that biomass burning is a significant driver of global change. 20 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ISOPRENE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emission of isoprene from vegetation affects tropospheric chemistry at the regional and global scales. rojected global climate change will potentially alter emission rates, with corresponding influences on concentrations of ozone and other radiatively important trace gases. rogre...

  20. Projecting Global Land-Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Erik; Sander, Heather; Hawthorne, Peter; Conte, Marc; Ennaanay, Driss; Wolny, Stacie; Manson, Steven; Polasky, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Background As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. Methodology/Principal Findings We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Conclusions/Significance Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures. PMID:21179509

  1. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  2. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    , the paradigm of 'ecomodernism' implies to accentuate some of the current development paths of societies with the goal to 'decouple' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. Applying the paradigm 'geoengineering', engineering works shall 'modulate' natural fluxes of matter to counter the effect of anthropogenic fluxes of matter instead to alter the development paths of societies. Thus, anthropogenic global change is a composite process in which engineering intercedes the 'noosphere' and in the 'bio-geosphere'. Paradigms 'how to engineering earth systems' reflect different concepts ('shared subjective insights') how to combine knowledge with use, function and purpose. Currently, four paradigms are distinguishable how to engineer anthropogenic global change. They convene recipes human activity and bio-geosphere should intersect.

  3. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  4. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  5. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  6. Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcelroy, M.

    1983-01-01

    A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

  7. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  8. Changing ideas of global limits.

    PubMed

    Goddy, D

    1984-03-01

    In this discussion of changing ideas of global limits, attention is directed to world trade, moral restraint, and the "green revolution." A fresh look at the work of those who first considered population problems, e.gg., Malthur, can help make some sense of the population problems the world faces today. Malthus, writing in the late 1700s, concluded that population multiplies with each generation. He saw that food production was limited by the amount of available cropland and that the more people there are, the less food they will have to eat -- assuming that all available cropland is planted. This grim view of the future led Malthus to oppose government aid to the poor maintaining that such assistance would only encourage poor people to have large families. His solution was "moral restratin," seeing it as the duty of each individual to refrain from marriage until he was able to support his children. At the time this advice seemed cruel and Malthus was bitterly attacked by writers everywhere in Europe. Karl Marx and other ctitics of Malthus believed that poverty was caused by unjust governments and the selfishness of the rich. Marx clamied that the problem was too few jobs rather than too many people. The dire predictions of Malthus were soon forgotten as manufacturing industries began to transform the economies of Western Europe in the 1800s. Along with soaring economic growth came a host of developments that improved people's lives, e.g., better transportation, better sanitiation and nutrition, and better medicine. New inventions helped farmers fo produce more food. Next came the "demographic transition." Population grew quickly in Europe and North America as people became healthier and lived longer. Gradually, people in the industrial nations began deciding to have smaller families to enable them to afford an even higher living standard. By the late 1920s birthrates in Europe and the US had dropped so low that mention of the "population problem" usually referred

  9. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  10. Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, L.; Solomon, S. C.; Lastovicka, J.; Roble, R. G.

    2011-12-01

    Anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases warm the troposphere but have a cooling effect in the middle and upper atmosphere. The steady increase of CO2 is the dominant cause of upper atmosphere trends. Long-term changes of other radiatively active trace gases such as CH4, O3, and H2O, long-term changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, and other possible drivers also play a role. Observational and model studies have confirmed that in the past several decades, global cooling has occurred in the mesosphere and thermosphere; the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere has lowered the ionosphere, increased electron density in the lower ionosphere, but slightly decreased electron density in the upper ionosphere. Limited observations have suggested long-term changes in the occurrence rate of major stratospheric warming, mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, wave activities and turbulence in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and occurrence of noctilucent clouds or polar mesospheric clouds. However, possible long-term changes of these parameters remain to be open questions due to lack of measurements. We will review recent progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere, and discuss future investigations with a focus on how measurements by commercial reusable suborbital vehicles can help resolve the open questions.

  11. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  12. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  13. Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries

    SciTech Connect

    Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

    1990-01-01

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

  14. Botany and a changing world: introduction to the special issue on global biological change.

    PubMed

    Weller, Stephen G; Suding, Katharine; Sakai, Ann K

    2013-07-01

    The impacts of global change have heightened the need to understand how organisms respond to and influence these changes. Can we forecast how change at the global scale may lead to biological change? Can we identify systems, processes, and organisms that are most vulnerable to global changes? Can we use this understanding to enhance resilience to global changes? This special issue on global biological change emphasizes the integration of botanical information at different biological levels to gain perspective on the direct and indirect effects of global change. Contributions span a range of spatial scales and include both ecological and evolutionary timescales and highlight work across levels of organization, including cellular and physiological processes, individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Integrative botanical approaches to global change are critical for the ecological and evolutionary insights they provide and for the implications these studies have for species conservation and ecosystem management. PMID:23825138

  15. Global Change and the Terrestrial Biosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, Alistair

    2009-04-22

    Terrestrial ecosystems sustain life on Earth through the production of food, fuel, fiber, clean air, and naturally purified water. But how will agriculture and ecosystems be affected by global change? Rogers describes the impact of projected climate change on the terrestrial biosphere and explains why plants are not just passive respondents to global change, but play an important role in determining the rate of change.

  16. The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Global and Regional Climate in the Preindustrial Holocene: A Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2014-12-01

    The recent development of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) scenarios that cover all or part of the preindustrial Holocene (11,700 BP to ~AD 1850) has led to a number of modelling studies on the impacts of land cover change on climate, using both GCMs and regional climate models. Because most ALCC scenarios arrive at similar estimates of anthropogenic deforestation by the late preindustrial, most models agree that the net biogeophysical effect of ALCC by AD 1850 is regional cooling at mid- to high-latitudes and warming and drying over the tropics and subtropics. In particular, tropical deforestation appears to lead to local amplification of externally forced drought cycles, e.g., from ENSO. The spatial extent of these climate changes varies between models because the choice of ALCC scenario leads to large differences in the initial forcing. Those model studies that considered biogeochemical feedbacks show that the importance of preindustrial CO2 emissions ranges from being insignificant to larger than the global biogeophysical feedback, depending on assumptions made about potential natural atmospheric CO2 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. While the net magnitude of deforestation is similar among ALCC scenarios at AD 1850, the timing of deforestation varies widely, which, in addition to affecting the inferred importance of biogeochemical feedbacks, leads to large differences in the estimated importance of ALCC on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed on Europe and the Mediterranean representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire or in Mesoamerica for the Classic Maya period show large differences in the estimated importance of the biogeophysical feedback to regional climate depending on the ALCC scenario used. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the

  17. Global Change in the Great Lakes: Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garrison, Barbara K., Ed.; Rosser, Arrye R., Ed.

    The Ohio Sea Grant Education Program has produced this series of publications designed to help people understand how global change may affect the Great Lakes region. The possible implications of global change for this region of the world are explained in the hope that policymakers and individuals will be more inclined to make responsible decisions…

  18. Global change: What you can do

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    Hearings before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation are presented on simple things that a person can do to reduce threats to the global environment. Specific threats addressed include greenhouse warming, ozone depletion, acid rain, and other effects of pollution and global changes in marine ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, and human health. It is noted that even small steps, such as more double-sided photocopying, can save trees; that maintaining a second home wastes resources; and that several books written by one witness describe other things one can do to save the Earth. The Federal Government is urged to set an example and to pass appropriate legislation to encourage conservation and reduce pollution.

  19. Global change and human susceptibility to disease

    SciTech Connect

    Daily, G.C.; Ehrlich, P.R.

    1996-12-31

    Although the loss of good health is inherently unpredictable, human behavior at the individual and societal levels profoundly influences the incidence and evolution of disease. In this review, the authors define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of biophysical aspects of global change--changes in the size; mobility, and geographic distribution of the human population; land conversion; agricultural intensification; and climate change--is then examined. Human vulnerability to disease is strongly and deleteriously influenced by many of these ongoing, intensifying alterations. The authors then examine threats to human defenses against disease, including immune suppression, loss of biodiversity and indigenous knowledge, and the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Effective responses will require greatly enhanced attention by and collaboration among experts in diverse academic disciplines, in the private sector, and in government worldwide. 157 refs.

  20. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  1. Biodiversity: Interacting global change drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Settele, Josef; Wiemers, Martin

    2015-10-01

    Climate change impacts on species do not occur in isolation. Now research on drought-sensitive British butterflies uses citizen science to attribute the drivers of population changes and shows landscape management to be a key part of the solution.

  2. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  3. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  4. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  5. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry-wet changes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-01-01

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase. PMID:25323549

  6. Eighth symposium on global change studies

    SciTech Connect

    1997-11-01

    The conference proceedings contain papers from 16 of 20 sessions. The topics of the sessions from which papers were selected were: (1) implications of the IPCC projections of the 21st century climate, (2) natural and forced climate variability, (3) atmospheric circulation; (4) climate trends and abrupt changes; (5) clouds, water vapor, and precipitation; (6) climate impacts; (7) correcting observational biases; (8) the World Ocean Circulation Experiment; (9) land surface and land surface/atmosphere coupling; (10) detection of anthropogenic climate change; (11) climate and global change and the insurance industry; (12) the paleoclimate record; (13) proxy indicators of climate reconstruction; (14) climate predictions; (15) monitoring global change; and (16) historical, current, and project climate trends. Conference sessions from which papers were not selected were: (1) The United States Global Change Research Program perspectives; (2) CLIVAR; (3) the temperature record; and (4) global change educational initiatives. A total of 63 papers were selected for the database.

  7. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

    2016-05-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  8. Review of inorganic nitrogen transformations and effect of global climate change on inorganic nitrogen cycling in ocean ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Haryun

    2016-03-01

    Inorganic N transformations (nitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium) are regulated by various biogeochemical factors linked either by the supply of electron acceptors and donors or by competition for electron acceptors. This review considers both the microbial community related to each process and the technical methods used to measure each process rate. With this background knowledge, this article summarizes how global climate change through increased pCO2, ocean acidification, deoxygenation and anthropogenic N deposition will alter oceanic N cycling, and finally emphasizes the need for comprehensive research on inorganic N transformation in marine ecosystems.

  9. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  10. Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers.

    PubMed

    Dlugokencky, Edward J; Nisbet, Euan G; Fisher, Rebecca; Lowry, David

    2011-05-28

    A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH(4)) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm(-2) to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm(-2) in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm(-2) of indirect forcing. Since CH(4) has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH(4)'s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH(4) abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH(4) lifetime, constrain total global CH(4) emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH(4) yr(-1). While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH(4) budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH(4) abundance and its isotopic composition (δ(13)C, δD(D=(2)H) and δ(14)C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes. PMID

  11. Review of Global Change Research Program plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-01-01

    The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

  12. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts. PMID:21553952

  13. Global change effects on biogeochemical processes of Argentinian estuaries: an overview of vulnerabilities and ecohydrological adaptive outlooks.

    PubMed

    Kopprio, Germán A; Biancalana, Florencia; Fricke, Anna; Garzón Cardona, John E; Martínez, Ana; Lara, Rubén J

    2015-02-28

    The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems. PMID:25194878

  14. The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

    1991-01-01

    Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

  15. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  16. Earth orbiting technologies for understanding global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Leonard A.; Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.; Couch, Lana M.

    We are all becoming more aware of concerns such as the ozone hole and ozone layer depletion, the build-up of greenhouse gasses and the potential for global climate change, the damage to our lakes and forests from acid rain, and the loss of species and genetic diversity. These are not only of scientific interest, but are of growing public media, federal governmental, and international concern, with the potential for major impacts on the international economy, potential for future development, and global standard of living. Yet our current understanding of how our global environment behaves is embryonic, and does not allow us to predict with confidence the consequences or long term significance of these phenomena. NASA has a significant national responsibility in Global Change research, which will require a major agency investment over the next few decades in obtaining the science data associated with understanding the Earth as a total system. Technology research and development is a natural complement to this national scientific program. In her report to the NASA Administrator, Dr. Sally K. Ride states that Mission to Planet Earth "requires advances in technology to enhance observations, to handle and deliver the enormous quantities of data, and to ensure a long operating life." These three themes (1) space-based observation technologies, (2) data/information technologies, and (3) spacecraft/operations technologies form the basis for NASA's efforts to identify the technologies needed to support the Mission to Planet Earth. In the observation area, developments in spacecraft and space-based instrument technologies are required to enable the accurate measurement of key parameters crucial to the understanding of global change. In the data/information area, developments in technologies are required to enable the long-term documentation of these parameters and the timely understanding of the data. And in the spacecraft/operations area, developments in spacecraft

  17. Global fish production and climate change.

    PubMed

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change. PMID:18077405

  18. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

  19. Global Education and Local School Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otero, George

    1983-01-01

    Change strategies that focus on improving local schools' abilities to manage change are described, and examples of how the strategies can be applied to help the schools prepare students for life in a global society are furnished. Specific strategies are based on the work of Las Palomas de Taos, an agency promoting change in the Southwest. (PP)

  20. Global vegetation changes from satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Nemani, R.; Running, S.

    1995-09-01

    Long-term climate, soils data along with satellite observations are sued to quantify global land cover changes between pre-agricultural and present conditions. Changes in global land cover expressed as summer, mid-afternoon, radiometric surface temperatures, T{sub r}, ranged from -8 to +16 {degrees}C. Deforestation resulted in an increase in T{sub r}, while irrigated agriculture reduced the T{sub r}. The spatial heterogeneity in land surface fluxes created by the estimated land cover changes, currently not accounted for in Global Circulation Models, could have significant impact on climate. Potential and actual land cover datasets are available for climate modelers at 0.5x0.5{degrees} resolution to study the possible impacts of land cover changes on global temperatures and circulation patterns.

  1. The Mathematics of Global Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreith, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a descriptive and preliminary report on recent efforts to address two questions: 1) Can school mathematics be used to enhance our students' ability to understand their changing world? and 2) What role might computer technology play in this regard? After recounting some of the mathematical tools that led to a better understanding of…

  2. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  3. Global changes to atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Brasseur, G.P.; Holland, E.A.

    1995-06-01

    Changes in atmospheric concentrations of trace gases provided early evidence of widespread changes within the biosphere. Trace gas production by plants and in soils increased in response to human pressures. Long lived trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane are greenhouse gases and play an important role in stratospheric chemistry. Photochemically active compounds, isoprene, nitric oxide, and carbon monoxide, are determinants of tropospheric ozone concentrations and thus regulate the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Inclusion of isoprene produced by plants in 3-D chemical transport models increases atmospheric concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide substantially. In return, terrestrial ecosystems are sensitive to atmospheric composition, responding to increased N deposition with increased C uptake, and soil acidification, and responding to increased ozone concentrations and UV-B with decreased plant production.

  4. Potential effects on health of global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Haines, A. . Whittington Hospital); Parry, M. . Environmental Change Unit)

    1993-12-01

    Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important to monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.

  5. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  6. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  7. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  8. Exposure to multiple metals from groundwater-a global crisis: geology, climate change, health effects, testing, and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Erika; Frisbie, Seth; Sarkar, Bibudhendra

    2011-09-01

    This paper presents an overview of the global extent of naturally occurring toxic metals in groundwater. Adverse health effects attributed to the toxic metals most commonly found in groundwater are reviewed, as well as chemical, biochemical, and physiological interactions between these metals. Synergistic and antagonistic effects that have been reported between the toxic metals found in groundwater and the dietary trace elements are highlighted, and common behavioural, cultural, and dietary practices that are likely to significantly modify health risks due to use of metal-contaminated groundwater are reviewed. Methods for analytical testing of samples containing multiple metals are discussed, with special attention to analytical interferences between metals and reagents. An overview is presented of approaches to providing safe water when groundwater contains multiple metallic toxins. PMID:21766119

  9. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  10. Global environmental change research: empowering developing countries.

    PubMed

    Nobre, Carlos A; Lahsen, Myanna; Ometto, Jean P H B

    2008-09-01

    This paper discusses ways to reconcile the United Nations Millennium Development Goals with environmental sustainability at the national and international levels. The authors argue that development and better use of sustainability relevant knowledge is key, and that this requires capacity building globally, and especially in the less developed regions of the world. Also essential is stronger integration of high-quality knowledge creation and technology--and policy--development, including, importantly, the creation of centers of excellence in developing regions which effectively use and produce applications-directed high quality research and bring it to bear on decision making and practices related to environmental change and sustainable management of natural resources. The authors argue that Southern centers of excellence are a necessary first step for bottom-up societal transformation towards sustainability, and that such centers must help design innovative ways to assess and place value on ecosystem services. PMID:18797803

  11. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  12. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  13. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  14. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  15. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  16. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  17. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:19850527

  18. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  19. Model evaluation of the radiative and temperature effects of the ozone content changes in the global atmosphere of 1980's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karol, Igor L.; Frolkis, Victor A.

    1994-01-01

    Radiative and temperature effects of the observed ozone and greenhouse gas atmospheric content changes in 1980 - 1990 are evaluated using the two-dimensional energy balance radiative-convective model of the zonally and annually averaged troposphere and stratosphere. Calculated radiative flux changes for standard conditions quantitatively agree with their estimates in WMO/UNEP 1991 review. Model estimates indicate rather small influence of ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere on the greenhouse tropospheric warming rate, being more significant in the non-tropical Southern Hemisphere. The calculated cooling of the lower stratosphere is close to the observed temperature trends there in the last decade.

  20. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  1. The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Driscoll, K.; Mayer, B.; Su, J.; Mathis, M.

    2014-05-01

    The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models (HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilization of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods. Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary

  2. Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galloway, James N.; Melillo, Jerry M.

    1998-09-01

    Nearly two-thirds of the world's population live in Asia, and many countries in that region are currently undergoing very rapid industrial, agricultural and economic development. The Framework Convention on Climate Change constrains developed countries with regard to their future emissions of greenhouse gases, but recognizes the special needs of developing countries. There is growing appreciation of the ways in which developing countries in the Asian region both contribute to global changes (by altering biogeochemical pathways and cycles) and are themselves affected by those changes. This volume uses the intellectual efforts and findings of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) community to provide the first integrated analysis of the interactions between global change and Asian change, giving particular attention to China's role. The book will be of interest to readers in a wide range of academic disciplines (natural sciences and socio-economic) and for those involved in national and international policy development relevant to global change.

  3. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  4. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    SciTech Connect

    Sommers, W.T.

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  5. Global environmental changes: setting priorities for Latin American coastal habitats.

    PubMed

    Turra, Alexander; Cróquer, Aldo; Carranza, Alvar; Mansilla, Andrés; Areces, Arsenio J; Werlinger, Camilo; Martínez-Bayón, Carlos; Nassar, Cristina Aparecida Gomes; Plastino, Estela; Schwindt, Evangelina; Scarabino, Fabrizio; Chow, Fungyi; Figueroa, Felix Lopes; Berchez, Flávio; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Soto, Luis A; Buckeridge, Marcos Silveira; Copertino, Margareth S; de Széchy, Maria Tereza Menezes; Ghilardi-Lopes, Natalia Pirani; Horta, Paulo; Coutinho, Ricardo; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Leão, Zelinda Margarida de Andrade Nery

    2013-07-01

    As the effects of the Global Climate Changes on the costal regions of Central and South Americas advance, there is proportionally little research being made to understand such impacts. This commentary puts forward a series of propositions of strategies to improve performance of Central and South American science and policy making in order to cope with the future impacts of the Global Climate Changes in their coastal habitats. PMID:23504820

  6. Natural disaster reduction and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Bruce, J.P.

    1994-10-01

    There are three types of global change that affect human and economic losses due to natural disasters. The three kinds of changes are: (1) increasing economic development, especially along coastlines, in flood plains, and other hazard-prone areas; (2) changes in land surfaces and vegetation; and (3) variability and change in frequency and severity of natural hazards. Any program for reduction of disaster losses must take these factors into account, and trends in losses are due to these changes. 17 refs., 2 tabs.

  7. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  8. Global change and biological soil crusts: Effects of ultraviolet augmentation under altered precipitation regimes and nitrogen additions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Belnap, J.; Phillips, S.L.; Flint, S.; Money, J.; Caldwell, M.

    2008-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (BSCs), a consortium of cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses, are essential in most dryland ecosystems. As these organisms are relatively immobile and occur on the soil surface, they are exposed to high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, rising temperatures, and alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we applied treatments to three types of BSCs (early, medium, and late successional) over three time periods (spring, summer, and spring-fall). In the first year, we augmented UV and altered precipitation patterns, and in the second year, we augmented UV and N. In the first year, with average air temperatures, we saw little response to our treatments except quantum yield, which was reduced in dark BSCs during one of three sample times and in Collema BSCs two of three sample times. There was more response to UV augmentation the second year when air temperatures were above average. Declines were seen in 21% of the measured variables, including quantum yield, chlorophyll a, UV-protective pigments, nitrogenase activity, and extracellular polysaccharides. N additions had some negative effects on light and dark BSCs, including the reduction of quantum yield, ??-carotene, nitrogenase activity, scytonemin, and xanthophylls. N addition had no effects on the Collema BSCs. When N was added to samples that had received augmented UV, there were only limited effects relative to samples that received UV without N. These results indicate that the negative effect of UV and altered precipitation on BSCs will be heightened as global temperatures increase, and that as their ability to produce UV-protective pigments is compromised, physiological functioning will be impaired. N deposition will only ameliorate UV impacts in a limited number of cases. Overall, increases in UV will likely lead to lowered productivity and increased mortality in BSCs through time, which, in turn, will reduce their ability to contribute

  9. Global change technology architecture trade study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, L. Bernard (Editor); Hypes, Warren D. (Editor); Wright, Robert L. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

  10. Open access: changing global science publishing

    PubMed Central

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D.

    2013-01-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability. PMID:23986284

  11. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    PubMed

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping. PMID:18262823

  12. Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wofsy, Steven C.

    2004-11-01

    Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol and IPCC activity, and provides citations to a large sampling of Russian-language papers mostly unknown elsewhere. The critique of current policy trends is, in many respects, the most interesting part of the book. The authors are skeptical of claims about attribution of recent climate trends to human intervention, but devastating in their demolition of the ``skeptics'' views that nothing is seriously wrong in the global environmental system. They convincingly bring to bear the most telling observations and facts to make these arguments compelling and clarifying.

  13. Effects of Lithospheric and Crustal Cooling and Global Sea-level Changes due to Glaciation Cycles on Paleogeography of the Galapagos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, S.; Geist, D.

    2012-12-01

    The paleogeography of the Galapagos archipelago is important in evolutionary and biogeographic studies. The Galapagos islands are located on young (< 12 Ma) seafloor near the spreading center between the Cocos and Nazca plates, and they are products of volcanism associated with melting of a mantle upwelling plume underlying the eastward moving Nazca plate. Most of the major islands lie on the Galapagos Platform, a broad plateau that rises 2 km above the surrounding seafloor. Many of the islands are separated by shallow seas only 100's meters deep, thus an accurate model of island elevation with time is necessary for assessing the paleogeography. A number of processes affect the paleogeography of oceanic islands, including erosion, thermal subsidence due to cooling of lithosphere, subsidence due to lithospheric loading, isostacy, and global sea-level changes. We examine the effects of thermal subsidence and global sea-level changes on the paleogeography of the Galapagos. We use the present day bathymetry and topography data from GEBCO as a starting point and reconstruct the bathymetry and topography for the Galapagos back in time by considering the effects of thermal subsidence and global sea-level changes. Thermal subsidence due to lithospheric cooling is relatively straightforward, provided that lithospheric age is known. However, this process is complicated by the continual construction of the platform over the course of > 2 million years, which slows down the lithospheric cooling and resets the cooling age. Therefore, the net thermal subsidence is controlled by the cooling of the both lithosphere and the newly added volcanic rocks (i.e., locally on the islands and the regional platform). Global sea-level changes due to glaciation cycles occur on a relatively short time scales (~10 ka) and can cause more than 100 meter sea level drops in the Galapagos at the last glacial maximum 25 ka ago, according to recent global sea-level change models that consider ice

  14. Global change: Geographical approaches (A Review)*

    PubMed Central

    Kotlyakov, V. M.; Mather, J. R.; Sdasyuk, G. V.; White, G. F.

    1988-01-01

    The International Geosphere Biosphere Program sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions is directing attention to geophysical and biological change as influenced by human modifications in global energy and mass exchanges. Geographers in the Soviet Union and the United States have joined in critical appraisal of their experience in studying environmental change. This initial report is on some promising approaches, such as the reconstruction of earlier landscape processes, modeling of the dynamics of present-day landscapes, analysis of causes and consequences of anthropogenic changes in specified regions, appraisal of social response to change, and enhanced geographic information systems supported by detailed site studies. PMID:16593971

  15. Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yaoxian; Wu, Shiliang; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2015-11-01

    The occurrence of wildfires is very sensitive to fire meteorology, vegetation type and coverage. We investigate the potential impacts of global change (including changes in climate, land use/land cover, and population density) on wildfire frequencies over the period of 2000-2050. We account for the impacts associated with the changes in fire meteorology (such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity), vegetation density, as well as lightning and anthropogenic ignitions. Fire frequencies under the 2050 conditions are projected to increase by approximately 27% globally relative to the 2000 levels. Significant increases in fire occurrence are calculated over the Amazon area, Australia and Central Russia, while Southeast Africa shows a large decreasing trend due to significant increases in land use and population. Changes in fire meteorology driven by 2000-2050 climate change are found to increase the global annual total fires by around 19%. Modest increases (∼4%) in fire frequency at tropical regions are calculated in response to climate-driven changes in lightning activities, relative to the present-day levels. Changes in land cover by 2050 driven by climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization are expected to increase the global wildfire occurrences by 15% relative to the 2000 conditions while the 2000-2050 anthropogenic land use changes show little effects on global wildfire frequency. The 2000-2050 changes in global population are projected to reduce the total wildfires by about 7%. In general, changes in future fire meteorology plays the most important role in enhancing the future global wildfires, followed by land cover, lightning activities and land use while changes in population density exhibits the opposite effects during the period of 2000-2050.

  16. Climate change vulnerability of global hydropower generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farinosi, F.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2014-12-01

    This paper explores the vulnerability of global hydropower generation to the variability in seasonal averages as well as changes in extreme conditions of precipitation, surface runoff, and temperature. A statistical model is used to estimate the elasticity of hydroelectricity generation to the historical variation (1962-2010) in precipitation or runoff, while controlling for potential confounding factors and temperature changes. The estimated elasticities, which informs about hydropower sensitivity to meteorological variations, are combined with changes in future exposure around 2050 in different warming scenarios as simulated by an ensemble of GCMs participating in the CMIP5 project (Taylor et al., 2012). We use a panel regression model to estimate the parameters characterizing a reduced-form relationship between hydropower electricity generation at country level, a set of meteorological indicators, and number of other covariates that control for time-invariant country-specific heterogeneity (country effect), unspecified exogenous influences affecting all countries and units (time effects), and other confounding factors such the electricity generation mix. The estimated model shows that total annual runoff has a significant impact on the annual generation from the small and medium-sized units, whereas large-sized units do not appear to be sensitive to the inter-annual variation in runoff. This finding is reasonably explained by the greater buffer effect of reservoir capacity, which sensibly increases the resilience of these plants to inter-annual runoff variability. In medium-sized units an increase in total runoff by 1% increases electricity generation by 0.028%. Small-sized units are more sensitivity to inter-annual variations in runoff, and the same change in total runoff (1%) increases electricity generation by 0.037%. Seasonal temperature has also a significant impact. A 1% increase in spring temperature reduces electricity generation by 1.63%, while a 1

  17. Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Methods Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of “maximum entropy”, as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. Results In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Conclusions Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non

  18. Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

  19. Global Change: A View from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2003-01-01

    In this talk, I will discuss the fundamental science and society problems associated with global change, with an emphasis on the view from space. I will provide an overview of the vision and activities of the World Climate Research Program in the next two decades. Then I will show regional climate changes and environmental problems in the East Asian region, such as biomass burning, urban pollutions, yellow sand, and their possible interaction with the Asian monsoon, particularly over Southern China.

  20. Surfing Global Change: Negotiating Sustainable Solutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamer, Gilbert

    2006-01-01

    SURFING GLOBAL CHANGE (SGC) serves as a procedural shell for attaining sustainable solutions for any interdisciplinary issue and is intended for use in advanced university courses. The participants' activities evolve through five levels from individual argumentation to molding one's own views for the "common good." The paradigm of "ethics of…

  1. Changing Global Realities: Implications for the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Marlowe; Begler, Elsie

    1992-01-01

    Addresses the teaching of social studies in a changing world. Suggests that the Pacific Rim can be a focus area for teaching in a global context. Describes two curriculum models using either individual countries or aspects of life as the basis of organization to give learning a structure. (DK)

  2. Global change: state of the science.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, D J; Jain, A; Edmonds, J; Harvey, D; Hayhoe, K

    1999-01-01

    Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations. PMID:15093113

  3. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  4. WATERSHED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) studies (among other issues) the impact of global change on water quality. This field study evaluates the impact of global changes (land-use change and climate change) on source water quality. Changes in source water quality change...

  5. Eutrophication of Cape Cod estuaries: Effect of decadal changes in global-driven atmospheric and local-scale wastewater nutrient loads.

    PubMed

    Valiela, Ivan; Owens, Caroline; Elmstrom, Elizabeth; Lloret, Javier

    2016-09-15

    Nitrogen (N) supply by atmospheric deposition, wastewater, and fertilizers controls estuarine eutrophication. In New England, atmospheric N loads recently decreased by 50% and land-derived contributions rose about 80%, owing to national-scale emission controls and local urban development. The decrease in atmospheric deposition was large enough to balance increases in land-derived N loads, so total N loads to Waquoit Bay estuaries in Cape Cod did not change significantly between 1990 and 2014. Unchanged N regimes were corroborated by finding no differences in estuarine nutrient concentrations and macrophyte biomass between pre-2005 and in 2015. Coastal zones, subject to reasonably rapid changes in global and local driver variables, will require that assessment and management of eutrophication include adaptive strategies that capture effects of changing baselines. Management initiatives will be constrained by spatial scale of driver variables: local efforts may address wastewater and fertilizer N sources, but atmospheric sources require national or international attention. PMID:27417571

  6. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  7. Proteomic analysis of global protein expression changes in the endothelin-1 rat model for cerebral ischemia: rescue effect of mild hypothermia.

    PubMed

    Zgavc, Tine; Hu, Tjing-Tjing; Van de Plas, Babs; Vinken, Mathieu; Ceulemans, An-Gaëlle; Hachimi-Idrissi, Said; Sarre, Sophie; Michotte, Yvette; Arckens, Lutgarde

    2013-11-01

    Mild hypothermia is a promising neuroprotective therapy in stroke management. However, little is known about its effects on the global protein expression patterns in brain regions affected by ischemic stroke. We investigated protein expression changes associated with the neuroprotective effects of hypothermia via a functional proteomics approach through the analysis of the core (striatum) and the penumbra (cortex) after an ischemic insult in rats induced by endothelin-1 (Et-1). Functional outcome, infarct volume and related global protein expression changes were assessed 24h after the insult using two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis. Mild hypothermia, induced 20 min after endothelin-1 infusion, improved the neurological outcome, reflected by a 36% reduction in infarct volume and a significantly better neurological deficit score. Hypothermia was typically associated with opposite protein expression changes inthe cortex to those induced by stroke under normothermic conditions, but not in the striatum. The main cellular processes rescued by hypothermia and potentially involved in the protection of the cortex are cellular assembly and organization, followed by cell signaling, thereby confirming that hypothermia is neuroprotective through multiple molecular and cellular pathways. PMID:23927863

  8. On the effect of the Post-perovskite phase change on global mantle flow, geoid and dynamic topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahraki, Meysam; Schmeling, Harro; Kaban, Mikhail; Petrunin, Alexei

    2014-05-01

    In the lowermost parts of mantle, the D" layer is a profoundly important layer as it involves the process of heat and mass transfer between core and mantle. However, the physical nature of this layer is an issue of active debate. The seismic data represent a rapid increase and decrease of the shear velocity, especially beneath Circum-Pacific margins, in the D" layer. Indeed, such abrupt velocity discontinuity is not expected for this hot layer. The discovery of the perovskite (pv) to Post-perovskite (pPv) phase transformation has led to dramatic increase in our understanding of the structure of the D" layer, since it is thought to produce such seismic discontinuity. Here, we have investigate the influence of the phase transformation of pv to pPv on the geoid undulation as one of the most important geophysical observable, using 3D spherical shell mantle circulation models based on a seismic tomography model (S40RTS) and strongly lateral viscosity variations in the D" layer and the mantle above. We demonstrate that the geoid anomalies are strongly affected by the presence of pPv in the lowermost mantle. While the geoid heights over subduction zones are increased by considering a strong pPv compared to then surrounding mantle, a weak pPv reduces the geoid height, and a better fit to the observed geoid is obtained. We show that, applying a weak pPv viscosity of at least three orders of magnitude any higher viscosity contrast does not affect the geoid any further. We also investigate the effects of weak pPv combined with a different tomography model, a different pPv density contrast, the presence or absence of a global thermal-boundary-layer (TBL) and the presence or absence of lateral viscosity variations in the lower mantle. Keywords: Post-perovskite, phase transitions, geoid, dynamic topography

  9. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

  10. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

  11. Global Change: Logs of Straw; Dendrochronology

    SciTech Connect

    1994-09-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has produced a teacher`s packet targeted for grades 4 through 6 entitled Global Change. Each Global Change packet contains the following inserts: (1) A color poster depicting the earth as a fragile planet on one side, and examples of visible global change on the reverse. (2) Three activities addressing {open_quotes}Time and Cycles,{close_quotes} {open_quotes}Change and Cycles,{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Earth as Home{close_quotes} (3) A teacher guide (4) An evaluation questionnaire. Trees are some of nature`s most accurate time-keepers. Their growth layers, appearing as rings in the cross section of the tree trunk, record evidence of floods, droughts, insect attacks, lightning strikes, and even earthquakes. Tree growth depends on local conditions, which include the availability of water. Because the water cycle, or hydrologic cycle, is uneven-that is, the amount of water in the environment varies from year to year-scientist use tree-ring patterns to reconstruct regional patterns of drought and climatic change. This field of study, known as dendrochronology, was begun in the early 1900s by an American astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass.

  12. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    SciTech Connect

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  13. The changing global context of public health.

    PubMed

    McMichael, A J; Beaglehole, R

    2000-08-01

    Future health prospects depend increasingly on globalisation processes and on the impact of global environmental change. Economic globalisation--entailng deregulated trade and investment--is a mixed blessing for health. Economic growth and the dissemination of technologies have widely enhanced life expectancy. However, aspects of globalisation are jeopardising health by eroding social and environmental conditions, exacerbating the rich-poor gap, and disseminating consumerism. Global environmental changes reflect the growth of populations and the intensity of economic activity. These changes include altered composition of the atmosphere, land degradation, depletion of terrestrial aquifers and ocean fisheries, and loss of biodiversity. This weakening of life-supporting systems poses health risks. Contemporary public health must therefore encompass the interrelated tasks of reducing social and health inequalities and achieving health-sustaining environments. PMID:10981904

  14. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  15. Towards the global monitoring of biodiversity change.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Henrique M; David Cooper, H

    2006-03-01

    Governments have set the ambitious target of reducing biodiversity loss by the year 2010. The scientific community now faces the challenge of assessing the progress made towards this target and beyond. Here, we review current monitoring efforts and propose a global biodiversity monitoring network to complement and enhance these efforts. The network would develop a global sampling programme for indicator taxa (we suggest birds and vascular plants) and would integrate regional sampling programmes for taxa that are locally relevant to the monitoring of biodiversity change. The network would also promote the development of comparable maps of global land cover at regular time intervals. The extent and condition of specific habitat types, such as wetlands and coral reefs, would be monitored based on regional programmes. The data would then be integrated with other environmental and socioeconomic indicators to design responses to reduce biodiversity loss. PMID:16701487

  16. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  17. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  18. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  19. Stellar activity: Astrophysics relevant to global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haisch, Bernhard M.

    1994-01-01

    FRESIP will obtain a great deal of data on stellar activity and flares on F, G and K dwarfs. Rotation periods, flare distributions and possibly stellar cycles will emerge. This apparently curiosity-driven research actually has implications for our understanding of global climate change. Significant climate change during the seventeenth-century Maunder Minimum is thought to be related to a change in the solar condition. Recently acquired data from the Greenland Ice-core Project suggest that far greater climate changes on decade time scales may have occurred during the previous interglacial. It is possible that a yet more drastic change in state of the Sun was responsible. We have no relevant solar data, but can begin to explore this possibility by observing an ensemble of solar-like stars.

  20. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. PMID:24748331

  1. Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. PMID:24748331

  2. Using the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison, a Study on Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, J.; Dan, L.

    2014-12-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. Figure CaptionsFigure 1. Spatial distribution in sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to upward atmospheric CO2 concentration simulated from six the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, units: gC m-2 ppm-1. Figure 2. Same as Figure 9, but to the warming (gC m-2 K-1)

  3. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    PubMed

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  4. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks

    PubMed Central

    Britten, Gregory L.; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  5. Global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book is based on a symposium held in May 1990, sponsored by NASA, US EPA, and the North American Benthological Society. It focuses on the potential interactions between climate change and freshwater ecosystems. The assumption of global warming 2-5 degrees occurring in the next century was presented to the authors by the editors, and each author was asked to comment on how this warming might affect their particular system or process of interest. The book deals primarily with streams in the USA. Other chapters deal with the following topics: mechanisms driving global climate change; remote sensing; wetlands; lakes; general issues related to water resources and regional studies as they apply to flowing water.

  6. SAGE III capabilities and global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick

    1991-01-01

    The science objectives of the satellite-borne SAGE III are presented as they pertain to detecting global change. SAGE III is the proposed follow on and improved version of SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II which have measured stratospheric and, in some cases, tropospheric species since late 1978. Specifically, SAGE III will measure profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide and trioxide, neutral density, temperature, clouds, and chlorine dioxide using the solar and lunar occultation techniques. These techniques are inherently self-calibrating, provide high vertical resolution, and use well-behaved data retrievals making them ideal for trend detection and global change studies. The potential capabilities of SAGE III are illustrated by using data and results from SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II.

  7. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    SciTech Connect

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  8. Time series analyses of global change data.

    PubMed

    Lane, L J; Nichols, M H; Osborn, H B

    1994-01-01

    The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis

  9. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Longstreth, J

    1991-01-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed. PMID:1820256

  10. A Change in the Solar He II EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Didkovsky, L.; Gurman, J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.