Science.gov

Sample records for global change enrich

  1. The HSCaRS Summer Enrichment Program; Research Opportunities for Minority and Women Undergraduates in Global Change Science

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, Jr., Maurice G.; Perkey, Donald J.; Coleman, T. L.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of the HSCaRS Summer Enrichment Program (SEP) is to make significant contributions to the NASA Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) and the Alabama A&M University (AAMU) Center for Hydrology, Soil Climatology and Remote Sensing (HSCaRS) research missions by providing undergraduate student research internships with an emphasis on minority and women students. Additional objectives are to encourage more minority and women students to pursue advanced degrees in Earth system and global change science and to increase the participation of minority institutions in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Also, the SEP strives to make students in the traditional science disciplines more aware of the opportunities in Earth System Science. In designing the SEP, it was acknowledged that HSCaRS was a new research effort and Center. Consequently, students were not expected to immediately recognize the Center as one would older, more established research laboratories with national reputations, such as Los Alamos, Battelle, National Consortium for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), etc. Yet we still wanted to compete nationally for the best students. Therefore, we designed the program with a competitive financial package that includes a stipend of $400 per week, round-trip transportation from home to the summer research site, and free campus housing and meal plans provided by Alabama A&M University. Students also received a modest living allowance of approximately $25 per week. The internship program was 10 weeks in residence at Alabama A&M University or IGCRE, and gave students the opportunity to select from six general research areas: micro-meteorology, soil data analysis, soil moisture modeling, instrumentation, geographic information systems, and computer science. Student participants also enrolled in an introductory global change science course as part of the summer program (a copy of the course outline is in the appendix). The program included participation in a

  2. Enrichment-based DNA methylation analysis using next-generation sequencing: sample exclusion, estimating changes in global methylation, and the contribution of replicate lanes

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background DNA methylation is an important epigenetic mark and dysregulation of DNA methylation is associated with many diseases including cancer. Advances in next-generation sequencing now allow unbiased methylome profiling of entire patient cohorts, greatly facilitating biomarker discovery and presenting new opportunities to understand the biological mechanisms by which changes in methylation contribute to disease. Enrichment-based sequencing assays such as MethylCap-seq are a cost effective solution for genome-wide determination of methylation status, but the technical reliability of methylation reconstruction from raw sequencing data has not been well characterized. Methods We analyze three MethylCap-seq data sets and perform two different analyses to assess data quality. First, we investigate how data quality is affected by excluding samples that do not meet quality control cutoff requirements. Second, we consider the effect of additional reads on enrichment score, saturation, and coverage. Lastly, we verify a method for the determination of the global amount of methylation from MethylCap-seq data by comparing to a spiked-in control DNA of known methylation status. Results We show that rejection of samples based on our quality control parameters leads to a significant improvement of methylation calling. Additional reads beyond ~13 million unique aligned reads improved coverage, modestly improved saturation, and did not impact enrichment score. Lastly, we find that a global methylation indicator calculated from MethylCap-seq data correlates well with the global methylation level of a sample as obtained from a spike-in DNA of known methylation level. Conclusions We show that with appropriate quality control MethylCap-seq is a reliable tool, suitable for cohorts of hundreds of patients, that provides reproducible methylation information on a feature by feature basis as well as information about the global level of methylation. PMID:23281662

  3. 77 FR 13367 - General Electric-Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment, LLC, Proposed Laser-Based Uranium Enrichment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-06

    ... Preparation, 75 FR 1819 (January 13, 2010). Documents related to this notice are available on the NRC's GE... COMMISSION General Electric-Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment, LLC, Proposed Laser-Based Uranium Enrichment...- Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment, LLC (GLE) Uranium Enrichment Facility. On June 26, 2009, GLE submitted...

  4. 77 FR 14838 - General Electric-Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment LLC, Commercial Laser-Based Uranium Enrichment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-13

    ... COMMISSION General Electric-Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment LLC, Commercial Laser-Based Uranium Enrichment... considering the issuance of a license to General Electric-Hitachi Global Laser Enrichment LLC (GLE or the applicant) to authorize construction of a laser-based uranium enrichment facility and possession and use...

  5. Technology and Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  6. Amazonia and Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Michael; Bustamante, Mercedes; Gash, John; Silva Dias, Pedro

    Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as • Wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis • Increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle • Drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments • The net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere • Floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere • The impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. The book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists.

  7. Global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    1999-01-01

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  8. Global climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Severinghaus, J P

    1999-08-31

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  9. Observational and modeling constraints on global anthropogenic enrichment of mercury.

    PubMed

    Amos, Helen M; Sonke, Jeroen E; Obrist, Daniel; Robins, Nicholas; Hagan, Nicole; Horowitz, Hannah M; Mason, Robert P; Witt, Melanie; Hedgecock, Ian M; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Sunderland, Elsie M

    2015-04-01

    Centuries of anthropogenic releases have resulted in a global legacy of mercury (Hg) contamination. Here we use a global model to quantify the impact of uncertainty in Hg atmospheric emissions and cycling on anthropogenic enrichment and discuss implications for future Hg levels. The plausibility of sensitivity simulations is evaluated against multiple independent lines of observation, including natural archives and direct measurements of present-day environmental Hg concentrations. It has been previously reported that pre-industrial enrichment recorded in sediment and peat disagree by more than a factor of 10. We find this difference is largely erroneous and caused by comparing peat and sediment against different reference time periods. After correcting this inconsistency, median enrichment in Hg accumulation since pre-industrial 1760 to 1880 is a factor of 4.3 for peat and 3.0 for sediment. Pre-industrial accumulation in peat and sediment is a factor of ∼ 5 greater than the precolonial era (3000 BC to 1550 AD). Model scenarios that omit atmospheric emissions of Hg from early mining are inconsistent with observational constraints on the present-day atmospheric, oceanic, and soil Hg reservoirs, as well as the magnitude of enrichment in archives. Future reductions in anthropogenic emissions will initiate a decline in atmospheric concentrations within 1 year, but stabilization of subsurface and deep ocean Hg levels requires aggressive controls. These findings are robust to the ranges of uncertainty in past emissions and Hg cycling. PMID:25750991

  10. Global temperature change

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

  11. Global change research highlights

    SciTech Connect

    Krause, C.

    1995-12-31

    Wood - the fuel source of the past - is expected to be a fuel source of the future. Fast growing trees are being cloned and nurtured for conversion to biofuels to replace or supplement gasoline for transportation. The future may also bring higher temperatures and drought if global climate changes as predicted. So, it seems practical to raise fastgrowing trees that not only provide fuel by capturing carbon from the atmosphere (helping to deter climate change) but also flourish under dry conditions. A recent ORNL finding has bearing on this goal. Hybrid willow trees have been cloned because they grow fast and serve as good fuel sources. However, there are important gender differences. Male willow clones are generally more tolerant of drought than female willows. Also, male willows cause no weed problems because they do not disperse seeds. In addition research work has looked at the impact of enhanced carbon dioxide environments on the growth of trees and the potential sequestering of carbon dioxide into the trees or soils. Scientists have found that ground-level ozone in the environment can reduce the growth of the loblolly pine, a forest tree species of great economic importance in the Southeast. It is predicted that global warming could lead to changes in regional precipitation, even periods of drought. How would climate change affect the growth of forest trees? This is a question ORNL has been attempting to answer. Geologic records have been studied by means of isotope ratio techniques to study reasons for vegetation changes in the past. The question is what was the reason for these changes.

  12. Global change and mercury

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2013-01-01

    More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

  13. Managing global change information

    SciTech Connect

    Stoss, F.W.

    1995-12-31

    Which human activities add to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), the greenhouse gas that may promote warming of the earth`s climate? How could CO{sub 2} emission restrictions change the use of fossil fuels? How would increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} likely effect climate? Can one see any evidence that the world is getting warmer? What coastal-zone areas are more sensitive to potential sea-level rise from an accelerated melting of glaciers? What is El Nino and how does it affect the earth`s climate? These are among the thousands of questions to which ORNL data analysts respond every year. Recently, the topic of global environmental change, including climate change, has grown in importance. At ORNL researchers have improved their understanding of the science underlying this major environmental issue. At the same time the Laboratory is playing a pivotal role in directing the data and information management activities for what some researchers consider the most information-intensive science project ever undertaken. Long one of the world`s leading energy R&D facilities, ORNL has more recently emerged as one of the preeminent environmental research centers in the world. Within ORNL`s Environmental Sciences Division, the Environmental Information Analysis Program was established to serve as a focal point for the assimilation of data related to global environmental change. The three major components of the program are the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Archive, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration`s Earth Observing System Data and Information System Distributed Active Archive Center, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). The World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases is located in CDIAC.

  14. Global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Corell, R.W.; Anderson, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    Fifty years ago the buzz words in science were [open quotes]atomic energy,[close quotes] and the general mood of the public, in those more naive days, was that the earth is so large that it could take any kind of human abuse. The advance of science and technology since then has proved that this is not the case. It is now common sense, even to the layperson, that the earth's environment is delicate and needs careful protection if future generations are to enjoy it. The buzz words now are [open quotes]global change.[close quotes] This book is the outcome of the Workshop on the Science of Global Environmental Change sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is one of the NATO's Advanced Science Institute Series books. It is essentially a collection of the lectures given in the workshop. The workshop was apparently not intended for in-depth scientific discussions but to review the overall current research situation and to identify future research needs. Accordingly, the papers collected in this volume are basically of this nature.

  15. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  16. Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Vitousek, P.M. )

    1994-10-01

    While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, some components of global environmental change are certainly occurring and are certainly human-caused. All have important ecological consequences. Well-documented global changes include: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the biogeochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and ongoing land use/land cover change. Human activity - now primarily fossil fuel combustion - has increased carbon dioxide concentrations from [approximately] 280 to 355 [mu]L/L since 1800 and is likely to have climatic consequences and direct effects on biota in all terrestrial ecosystems. The global nitrogen cycle has been altered so that more nitrogen is fixed annually by humanity than by all natural pathways combined. Altering atmospheric chemistry and aquatic ecosystems, contributes to eutrophication of the biosphere, and has substantial regional effects on biological diversity. Finally, human land use/land cover change has transformed one-third to one-half of Earth's ice-free surface, representing the most important component of global change now. Any clear dichotomy between pristine ecosystems and human-altered areas that may have existed in the past has vanished, and ecological research should account for this reality. Certain components of global environmental change are the primary causes of anticipated changes in climate, and of ongoing losses of biological diversity. They are caused by the extraordinary growth in size and resource use of the human population. On a broad scale, there is little uncertainty about any of these components of change or their causes. However, much of the public believes the causes of global change to be uncertain and contentious. By speaking out effectively,the focus of public discussion towards what can and should be done about global environmental change can be shifted. 135 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  17. FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks

    Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research

    Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health

    NRMRL

    R...

  18. Bibliography of global change, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This bibliography lists 585 reports, articles, and other documents introduced in the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database in 1992. The areas covered include global change, decision making, earth observation (from space), forecasting, global warming, policies, and trends.

  19. Global atmospheric changes.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation. PMID:1820255

  20. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  1. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global changes in ecological drivers, such as CO2 concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, but a coherent theory of global change has not yet been developed. We outline the characteristics of a theory of gl...

  2. The Canadian Global Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Lefrancois, C.; Maillette, L. )

    1994-06-01

    Global change affects climate and many other processes of the biosphere, atmosphere, geosphere, oceans and human societies. The Canadian Global Change Program (CGCP) is a multidisciplinary body established in 1985 by the Royal Society of Canada. The CGCP stimulates research projects, acts as national link to international programs such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, assists in policy formulation, maintains a database of global change activities in Canada, and promotes awareness of global change issues among researchers, policy makers, educators, and the general public. The importance of human societies as forcing functions of global change is integrated in the activities of the CGCP (e.g. long-term ecosystem monitoring, reduction of greenhouse gas emission, population growth and resource use). CGCP publications include a quarterly newsletter (DELTA), overviews of major issues, policy recommendations, proceedings of workshops and conferences, and documents destined to educators.

  3. Space Observations for Global Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rasool, S. I.

    1991-01-01

    There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

  4. Solar influences on global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

  5. Warming and Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Alter Plant Production and Ecosystem gas Exchange in a Semi-Arid Grassland Through Direct Responses to Global Change Factors and Indirect Effects on Water Relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, J. A.; Pendall, E.; Williams, D. G.; Bachman, S.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Lecain, D. R.; Follett, R.

    2007-12-01

    The Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment was initiated in Spring, 2007 to evaluate the combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 on a northern mixed-grass prairie. Thirty 3-m diameter circular experimental plots were installed in Spring, 2006 at the USDA-ARS High Plains Grasslands Research Station, just west of Cheyenne, WY, USA. Twenty plots were assigned to a two-level factorial combination of two CO2 concentrations (present ambient, 380 ppmV; and elevated, 600 ppmV), and two levels of temperature (present ambient; and elevated temperature, 1.5/3.0 C warmer day/night), with five replications for each treatment. Five of the ten remaining plots were subjected to either frequent, small water additions throughout the growing season, and the other five to a deep watering once or twice during the growing season. The watering treatments were imposed to simulate hypothesized water savings in the CO2-enriched plots, and to contrast the influence of variable water dynamics on ecosystem processes. Carbon dioxide enrichment of the ten CO2- enriched plots is accomplished with Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology and occurs during daylight hours of the mid-April - October growing season. Warming is done year-round with circularly-arranged ceramic heater arrays positioned above the ring perimeters, and with temperature feed-backs to control day/night canopy surface temperatures. Carbon dioxide enrichment began in Spring, 2006, and warming was added in Spring, 2007. Results from the first year of CO2 enrichment (2006) confirmed earlier reports that CO2 increases productivity in semi-arid grasslands (21% increase in peak seasonal above ground biomass for plants grown under elevated CO2 compared to non-enriched controls), and that the response was related to CO2- induced water savings. Growth at elevated CO2 reduced leaf carbon isotope discrimination and N concentrations in plants compared to results obtained in control plots, but the magnitude of changes

  6. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  7. Space sensors for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Canavan, G.H.

    1994-02-15

    Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

  8. GLOBAL CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The influence of global change on future water resources is difficult to predict because various components are likely to be affected in opposing ways. Global warming would tend to increase evapotranspiration (ET) rates and irrigation water requirements, while increasing precipitation would both dec...

  9. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  10. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  11. Perspectives on global change theory

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Human-caused global changes in ecological drivers, such as carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, as well as direct human impacts (land use change, species movements and extinctions, etc.) are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, ...

  12. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  13. Future Global Change and Cognition.

    PubMed

    Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    The 11 articles in this issue explore how people respond to climate change and other global challenges. The articles pursue three broad strands of enquiry that relate (1) to the effects and causes of "skepticism" about climate change, (2) the purely cognitive challenges that are posed by a complex scientific issue, and (3) the ways in which climate change can be communicated to a wider audience. Cognitive science can contribute to understanding people's responses to global challenges in many ways, and it may also contribute to implementing solutions to those problems. PMID:26749304

  14. Global change research budget frozen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    For FY 1996, the interagency budget request for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) totals $2.156 billion, or a 1.8% ($39 million) increase over FY 1995. President Clinton has broadened the scope of the program to include another $358 million in reprogrammed activities in keeping with a push by the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research (CENR) to more closely link costs and objectives. In essence, the increase for what could be considered the “traditional” global change budget would be only 1.4%, or $24 million over the FY 1995 appropriation. USGCRP now embraces the Department of Energy (DoE) research on environmental technologies, NASA launch vehicle charges, and additional Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) research for environmental issues other than global change.

  15. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested. PMID:18991898

  16. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    SciTech Connect

    Woodard, C.T.; Stoss, F.W.

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  17. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  18. Global Change Education Resource Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortensen, Lynn L., Ed.

    This guide is intended as an aid to educators who conduct programs and activities on climate and global change issues for a variety of audiences. The selected set of currently available materials are appropriate for both formal and informal programs in environmental education and can help frame and clarify some of the key issues associated with…

  19. Global Change in the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  20. GLOBAL CHANGE MULTI-YEAR PLAN

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Research Act of 1990 establishes the U.S. Global Change Research Program to coordinate a comprehensive research program on global change. This is an inter-Agency effort, with EPA bearing responsibility to assess the consequences of global change on human health,...

  1. Ecological effects of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  2. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  3. Global change monitoring with lichens

    SciTech Connect

    Insarov, G.

    1997-12-31

    Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenetic influence. An ideal monitoring system enables quantification of the contemporary state of the environment and detect changes in it. An important function of monitoring is to assess environment quality of areas that are not affected by local anthropogenic impacts, i.e. background areas. In background areas terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as lowered air pollution and global climate change. Assessment of biotic responses to altered climatic and atmospheric conditions provides an important basis for ecosystem management and environmental decision making. Without the ability to make such assessment, sustainability of ecosystems as a support system for humans remains uncertain.

  4. Warming and carbon dioxide enrichment alter plant production and ecosystem gas exchange in a semi-arid grassland through direct responses to global change factors and indirect effects on water relations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment was initiated in Spring 2007 to evaluate the combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 on a northern mixed-grass prairie (NMP). Thirty 3-m diameter circular experimental plots were installed in Spring, 2006 at the USDA-ARS High Plains Gras...

  5. Forest health and global change.

    PubMed

    Trumbore, S; Brando, P; Hartmann, H

    2015-08-21

    Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide. PMID:26293952

  6. SCIENTIFIC LINKAGES IN GLOBAL CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the atmosphere, certain trace gases both promote global warming and deplete the ozone layer. he primary radiatively active trace gases, those that affect global warming, are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and tropospheric ozone. n the troposphere,...

  7. Clouds and Climate Change. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Glenn E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module introduces the basic features and classifications of clouds and cloud cover, and explains how clouds form, what they are made of, what roles they play in…

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ISOPRENE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emission of isoprene from vegetation affects tropospheric chemistry at the regional and global scales. rojected global climate change will potentially alter emission rates, with corresponding influences on concentrations of ozone and other radiatively important trace gases. rogre...

  9. Integrated analysis of the genomic, biochemical, and physiological responses of a model ecosystem to global change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our aim is to understand and integrate the molecular, biochemical, physiological and ecological responses of plants in the field to factors of global climate change. This research used Free Air-gas Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology to enrich [CO2] and [O3] to levels predicted for 2050, in a...

  10. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  11. Global change research: Science and policy

    SciTech Connect

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  12. Changing ideas of global limits.

    PubMed

    Goddy, D

    1984-03-01

    In this discussion of changing ideas of global limits, attention is directed to world trade, moral restraint, and the "green revolution." A fresh look at the work of those who first considered population problems, e.gg., Malthur, can help make some sense of the population problems the world faces today. Malthus, writing in the late 1700s, concluded that population multiplies with each generation. He saw that food production was limited by the amount of available cropland and that the more people there are, the less food they will have to eat -- assuming that all available cropland is planted. This grim view of the future led Malthus to oppose government aid to the poor maintaining that such assistance would only encourage poor people to have large families. His solution was "moral restratin," seeing it as the duty of each individual to refrain from marriage until he was able to support his children. At the time this advice seemed cruel and Malthus was bitterly attacked by writers everywhere in Europe. Karl Marx and other ctitics of Malthus believed that poverty was caused by unjust governments and the selfishness of the rich. Marx clamied that the problem was too few jobs rather than too many people. The dire predictions of Malthus were soon forgotten as manufacturing industries began to transform the economies of Western Europe in the 1800s. Along with soaring economic growth came a host of developments that improved people's lives, e.g., better transportation, better sanitiation and nutrition, and better medicine. New inventions helped farmers fo produce more food. Next came the "demographic transition." Population grew quickly in Europe and North America as people became healthier and lived longer. Gradually, people in the industrial nations began deciding to have smaller families to enable them to afford an even higher living standard. By the late 1920s birthrates in Europe and the US had dropped so low that mention of the "population problem" usually referred

  13. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  14. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  15. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

  16. Global Change and the Terrestrial Biosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, Alistair

    2009-04-22

    Terrestrial ecosystems sustain life on Earth through the production of food, fuel, fiber, clean air, and naturally purified water. But how will agriculture and ecosystems be affected by global change? Rogers describes the impact of projected climate change on the terrestrial biosphere and explains why plants are not just passive respondents to global change, but play an important role in determining the rate of change.

  17. Global Change in the Great Lakes: Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garrison, Barbara K., Ed.; Rosser, Arrye R., Ed.

    The Ohio Sea Grant Education Program has produced this series of publications designed to help people understand how global change may affect the Great Lakes region. The possible implications of global change for this region of the world are explained in the hope that policymakers and individuals will be more inclined to make responsible decisions…

  18. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  19. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

  20. Biodiversity: Interacting global change drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Settele, Josef; Wiemers, Martin

    2015-10-01

    Climate change impacts on species do not occur in isolation. Now research on drought-sensitive British butterflies uses citizen science to attribute the drivers of population changes and shows landscape management to be a key part of the solution.

  1. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  2. Eighth symposium on global change studies

    SciTech Connect

    1997-11-01

    The conference proceedings contain papers from 16 of 20 sessions. The topics of the sessions from which papers were selected were: (1) implications of the IPCC projections of the 21st century climate, (2) natural and forced climate variability, (3) atmospheric circulation; (4) climate trends and abrupt changes; (5) clouds, water vapor, and precipitation; (6) climate impacts; (7) correcting observational biases; (8) the World Ocean Circulation Experiment; (9) land surface and land surface/atmosphere coupling; (10) detection of anthropogenic climate change; (11) climate and global change and the insurance industry; (12) the paleoclimate record; (13) proxy indicators of climate reconstruction; (14) climate predictions; (15) monitoring global change; and (16) historical, current, and project climate trends. Conference sessions from which papers were not selected were: (1) The United States Global Change Research Program perspectives; (2) CLIVAR; (3) the temperature record; and (4) global change educational initiatives. A total of 63 papers were selected for the database.

  3. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

    2016-05-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  4. Review of Global Change Research Program plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-01-01

    The draft 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which proposes broadening the scope of the program from climate change only to climate change and climaterelated global changes, “is an important step in the right direction,” according to a 5 January review of the plan by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies. However, the committee also said that the program's legislative mandate is even broader in allowing USGCRP to address many aspects of global change including climate change, the global hydrological cycle, and widespread land use changes. “The Program's legislative mandate is to address all of global change, whether or not related to climate. The Committee concurs that this broader scope is appropriate, but realizes that such an expansion may be constrained by budget realities and by the practical challenge of maintaining clear boundaries for an expanded program,” the report states. “We encourage sustained efforts to expand the Program over time, along with efforts to better define and prioritize what specific topics are included within the bounds of global change research.”

  5. Environmental Enrichments for a Group of Captive Macaws: Low Interaction Does Not Mean Low Behavioral Changes.

    PubMed

    Reimer, Jéssica; Maia, Caroline Marques; Santos, Eliana Ferraz

    2016-01-01

    Environmental enrichment has been widely used to improve conditions for nonhuman animals in captivity. However, there is no consensus about the best way to evaluate the success of enrichments. This study evaluated whether the proportion of time spent interacting with enrichments indicated the proportion of overall behavioral changes. Six environmental enrichments were introduced in succession to 16 captive macaws, and interaction of the animals with them as well as the behaviors of the group were recorded before and during the enrichments. All of the enrichments affected the proportions of time spent in different behaviors. Macaws interacted more with certain items (hibiscus and food tree) than with others (a toy or swings and stairs), but introduction of the enrichments that invoked the least interaction caused as many behavioral changes as those that invoked the most. Moreover, feeding behavior was only affected by the enrichment that invoked the least interaction, a change not detected by a general analysis of enrichment effects. In conclusion, little interaction with enrichment does not mean little change in behavior, and the effects of enrichments are more complex than previously considered. PMID:27135378

  6. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  7. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  8. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

  9. Global Education and Local School Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otero, George

    1983-01-01

    Change strategies that focus on improving local schools' abilities to manage change are described, and examples of how the strategies can be applied to help the schools prepare students for life in a global society are furnished. Specific strategies are based on the work of Las Palomas de Taos, an agency promoting change in the Southwest. (PP)

  10. Global vegetation changes from satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Nemani, R.; Running, S.

    1995-09-01

    Long-term climate, soils data along with satellite observations are sued to quantify global land cover changes between pre-agricultural and present conditions. Changes in global land cover expressed as summer, mid-afternoon, radiometric surface temperatures, T{sub r}, ranged from -8 to +16 {degrees}C. Deforestation resulted in an increase in T{sub r}, while irrigated agriculture reduced the T{sub r}. The spatial heterogeneity in land surface fluxes created by the estimated land cover changes, currently not accounted for in Global Circulation Models, could have significant impact on climate. Potential and actual land cover datasets are available for climate modelers at 0.5x0.5{degrees} resolution to study the possible impacts of land cover changes on global temperatures and circulation patterns.

  11. The Mathematics of Global Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kreith, Kurt

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a descriptive and preliminary report on recent efforts to address two questions: 1) Can school mathematics be used to enhance our students' ability to understand their changing world? and 2) What role might computer technology play in this regard? After recounting some of the mathematical tools that led to a better understanding of…

  12. Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcelroy, M.

    1983-01-01

    A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

  13. Global changes to atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Brasseur, G.P.; Holland, E.A.

    1995-06-01

    Changes in atmospheric concentrations of trace gases provided early evidence of widespread changes within the biosphere. Trace gas production by plants and in soils increased in response to human pressures. Long lived trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane are greenhouse gases and play an important role in stratospheric chemistry. Photochemically active compounds, isoprene, nitric oxide, and carbon monoxide, are determinants of tropospheric ozone concentrations and thus regulate the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Inclusion of isoprene produced by plants in 3-D chemical transport models increases atmospheric concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide substantially. In return, terrestrial ecosystems are sensitive to atmospheric composition, responding to increased N deposition with increased C uptake, and soil acidification, and responding to increased ozone concentrations and UV-B with decreased plant production.

  14. Hybridization and hybrid speciation under global change.

    PubMed

    Vallejo-Marín, Mario; Hiscock, Simon J

    2016-09-01

    Contents 1170 I. 1170 II. 1172 III. 1175 IV. 1180 V. 1183 1184 References 1184 SUMMARY: An unintended consequence of global change is an increase in opportunities for hybridization among previously isolated lineages. Here we illustrate how global change can facilitate the breakdown of reproductive barriers and the formation of hybrids, drawing on the flora of the British Isles for insight. Although global change may ameliorate some of the barriers preventing hybrid establishment, for example by providing new ecological niches for hybrids, it will have limited effects on environment-independent post-zygotic barriers. For example, genic incompatibilities and differences in chromosome numbers and structure within hybrid genomes are unlikely to be affected by global change. We thus speculate that global change will have a larger effect on eroding pre-zygotic barriers (eco-geographical isolation and phenology) than post-zygotic barriers, shifting the relative importance of these two classes of reproductive barriers from what is usually seen in naturally produced hybrids where pre-zygotic barriers are the largest contributors to reproductive isolation. Although the long-term fate of neo-hybrids is still to be determined, the massive impact of global change on the dynamics and distribution of biodiversity generates an unprecedented opportunity to study large numbers of unpredicted, and often replicated, hybridization 'experiments', allowing us to peer into the birth and death of evolutionary lineages. PMID:27214560

  15. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  16. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  17. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  18. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  19. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  20. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  1. Public health impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Hales, S; Weinstein, P; Woodward, A

    1997-01-01

    The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally. PMID:9406290

  2. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  3. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  4. Information technology and global change science

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, F.P.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.

  5. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  6. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  7. Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galloway, James N.; Melillo, Jerry M.

    1998-09-01

    Nearly two-thirds of the world's population live in Asia, and many countries in that region are currently undergoing very rapid industrial, agricultural and economic development. The Framework Convention on Climate Change constrains developed countries with regard to their future emissions of greenhouse gases, but recognizes the special needs of developing countries. There is growing appreciation of the ways in which developing countries in the Asian region both contribute to global changes (by altering biogeochemical pathways and cycles) and are themselves affected by those changes. This volume uses the intellectual efforts and findings of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) community to provide the first integrated analysis of the interactions between global change and Asian change, giving particular attention to China's role. The book will be of interest to readers in a wide range of academic disciplines (natural sciences and socio-economic) and for those involved in national and international policy development relevant to global change.

  8. Characterization of the Mouse Brain Proteome Using Global Proteomic Analysis Complemented with Cysteinyl-Peptide Enrichment

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Haixing H.; Qian, Weijun; Chin, Mark H.; Petyuk, Vladislav A.; Barry, Richard C.; Liu, Tao; Gritsenko, Marina A.; Mottaz, Heather M.; Moore, Ronald J.; Camp, David G.; Khan, Arshad H.; Smith, Desmond; Smith, Richard D.

    2006-02-01

    Given the growing interest in applying genomic and proteomic approaches for studying the mammalian brain using mouse models, we hereby present for the first time a comprehensive characterization of the mouse brain proteome. Preparation of the whole brain sample incorporated a highly efficient cysteinyl-peptide enrichment (CPE) technique to complement a global enzymatic digestion method. Both the global and the cysteinyl-enriched peptide samples were analyzed by SCX fractionation coupled with reversed phase LC-MS/MS analysis. A total of 48,328 different peptides were confidently identified (>98% confidence level), covering 7792 non-redundant proteins (~34% of the predicted mouse proteome). 1564 and 1859 proteins were identified exclusively from the cysteinyl-peptide and the global peptide samples, respectively, corresponding to 25% and 31% improvements in proteome coverage compared to analysis of only the global peptide or cysteinyl-peptide samples. The identified proteins provide a broad representation of the mouse proteome with little bias evident due to protein pI, molecular weight, and/or cellular localization. Approximately 26% of the identified proteins with gene ontology (GO) annotations were membrane proteins, with 1447 proteins predicted to have transmembrane domains, and many of the membrane proteins were found to be involved in transport and cell signaling. The MS/MS spectrum count information for the identified proteins was used to provide a measure of relative protein abundances. The mouse brain peptide/protein database generated from this study represents the most comprehensive proteome coverage for the mammalian brain to date, and the basis for future quantitative brain proteomic studies using mouse models.

  9. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  10. Natural disaster reduction and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Bruce, J.P.

    1994-10-01

    There are three types of global change that affect human and economic losses due to natural disasters. The three kinds of changes are: (1) increasing economic development, especially along coastlines, in flood plains, and other hazard-prone areas; (2) changes in land surfaces and vegetation; and (3) variability and change in frequency and severity of natural hazards. Any program for reduction of disaster losses must take these factors into account, and trends in losses are due to these changes. 17 refs., 2 tabs.

  11. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    SciTech Connect

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-10-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth`s surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference.

  12. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  13. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    PubMed

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  14. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  15. Deep solar minimum and global Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdel Hady, Ahmed

    2012-07-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its likely impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 100 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activities are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  16. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  17. Global change technology architecture trade study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, L. Bernard (Editor); Hypes, Warren D. (Editor); Wright, Robert L. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    Described here is an architecture trade study conducted by the Langley Research Center to develop a representative mix of advanced space science instrumentation, spacecraft, and mission orbits to assist in the technology selection processes. The analyses concentrated on the highest priority classes of global change measurements which are the global climate changes. Issues addressed in the tradeoffs includes assessments of the economics of scale of large platforms with multiple instruments relative to smaller spacecraft; the influences of current and possible future launch vehicles on payload sizes, and on-orbit assembly decisions; and the respective roles of low-Earth versus geostationary Earth orbiting systems.

  18. Open access: changing global science publishing

    PubMed Central

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D.

    2013-01-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability. PMID:23986284

  19. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  20. Global change accelerates carbon assimilation by a wetland ecosystem engineer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caplan, Joshua S.; Hager, Rachel N.; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Mozdzer, Thomas J.

    2015-11-01

    The primary productivity of coastal wetlands is changing dramatically in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and invasions by novel species, potentially altering their ecosystem services and resilience to sea level rise. In order to determine how these interacting global change factors will affect coastal wetland productivity, we quantified growing-season carbon assimilation (≈gross primary productivity, or GPP) and carbon retained in living plant biomass (≈net primary productivity, or NPP) of North American mid-Atlantic saltmarshes invaded by Phragmites australis (common reed) under four treatment conditions: two levels of CO2 (ambient and +300 ppm) crossed with two levels of N (0 and 25 g N added m-2 yr-1). For GPP, we combined descriptions of canopy structure and leaf-level photosynthesis in a simulation model, using empirical data from an open-top chamber field study. Under ambient CO2 and low N loading (i.e., the Control), we determined GPP to be 1.66 ± 0.05 kg C m-2 yr-1 at a typical Phragmites stand density. Individually, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 44 and 60%, respectively. Changes under N enrichment came largely from stimulation to carbon assimilation early and late in the growing season, while changes from CO2 came from stimulation during the early and mid-growing season. In combination, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 95% over the Control, yielding 3.24 ± 0.08 kg C m-2 yr-1. We used biomass data to calculate NPP, and determined that it represented 44%-60% of GPP, with global change conditions decreasing carbon retention compared to the Control. Our results indicate that Phragmites invasions in eutrophied saltmarshes are driven, in part, by extended phenology yielding 3.1× greater NPP than native marsh. Further, we can expect elevated CO2 to amplify Phragmites productivity throughout the growing season, with potential implications including accelerated spread

  1. Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wofsy, Steven C.

    2004-11-01

    Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol and IPCC activity, and provides citations to a large sampling of Russian-language papers mostly unknown elsewhere. The critique of current policy trends is, in many respects, the most interesting part of the book. The authors are skeptical of claims about attribution of recent climate trends to human intervention, but devastating in their demolition of the ``skeptics'' views that nothing is seriously wrong in the global environmental system. They convincingly bring to bear the most telling observations and facts to make these arguments compelling and clarifying.

  2. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shope, R

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  3. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Shope, R. )

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  4. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Shope, R

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  5. Global change: Geographical approaches (A Review)*

    PubMed Central

    Kotlyakov, V. M.; Mather, J. R.; Sdasyuk, G. V.; White, G. F.

    1988-01-01

    The International Geosphere Biosphere Program sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions is directing attention to geophysical and biological change as influenced by human modifications in global energy and mass exchanges. Geographers in the Soviet Union and the United States have joined in critical appraisal of their experience in studying environmental change. This initial report is on some promising approaches, such as the reconstruction of earlier landscape processes, modeling of the dynamics of present-day landscapes, analysis of causes and consequences of anthropogenic changes in specified regions, appraisal of social response to change, and enhanced geographic information systems supported by detailed site studies. PMID:16593971

  6. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  7. Global Change: A View from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2003-01-01

    In this talk, I will discuss the fundamental science and society problems associated with global change, with an emphasis on the view from space. I will provide an overview of the vision and activities of the World Climate Research Program in the next two decades. Then I will show regional climate changes and environmental problems in the East Asian region, such as biomass burning, urban pollutions, yellow sand, and their possible interaction with the Asian monsoon, particularly over Southern China.

  8. Surfing Global Change: Negotiating Sustainable Solutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamer, Gilbert

    2006-01-01

    SURFING GLOBAL CHANGE (SGC) serves as a procedural shell for attaining sustainable solutions for any interdisciplinary issue and is intended for use in advanced university courses. The participants' activities evolve through five levels from individual argumentation to molding one's own views for the "common good." The paradigm of "ethics of…

  9. Changing Global Realities: Implications for the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Marlowe; Begler, Elsie

    1992-01-01

    Addresses the teaching of social studies in a changing world. Suggests that the Pacific Rim can be a focus area for teaching in a global context. Describes two curriculum models using either individual countries or aspects of life as the basis of organization to give learning a structure. (DK)

  10. Global change: state of the science.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, D J; Jain, A; Edmonds, J; Harvey, D; Hayhoe, K

    1999-01-01

    Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations. PMID:15093113

  11. GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON CORAL REEF CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fisher, W., W. Davis, J. Campbell, L. Courtney, P. Harris, B. Hemmer, M. Parsons, B. Quarles and D. Santavy. In press. Global Change Effects on Coral Reef Condition (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington...

  12. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  13. WATERSHED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) studies (among other issues) the impact of global change on water quality. This field study evaluates the impact of global changes (land-use change and climate change) on source water quality. Changes in source water quality change...

  14. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  15. Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

    PubMed

    Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. PMID:24874505

  16. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

  17. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

  18. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    SciTech Connect

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  19. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. PMID:26504130

  20. Global Change: Logs of Straw; Dendrochronology

    SciTech Connect

    1994-09-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has produced a teacher`s packet targeted for grades 4 through 6 entitled Global Change. Each Global Change packet contains the following inserts: (1) A color poster depicting the earth as a fragile planet on one side, and examples of visible global change on the reverse. (2) Three activities addressing {open_quotes}Time and Cycles,{close_quotes} {open_quotes}Change and Cycles,{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Earth as Home{close_quotes} (3) A teacher guide (4) An evaluation questionnaire. Trees are some of nature`s most accurate time-keepers. Their growth layers, appearing as rings in the cross section of the tree trunk, record evidence of floods, droughts, insect attacks, lightning strikes, and even earthquakes. Tree growth depends on local conditions, which include the availability of water. Because the water cycle, or hydrologic cycle, is uneven-that is, the amount of water in the environment varies from year to year-scientist use tree-ring patterns to reconstruct regional patterns of drought and climatic change. This field of study, known as dendrochronology, was begun in the early 1900s by an American astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass.

  1. The changing global context of public health.

    PubMed

    McMichael, A J; Beaglehole, R

    2000-08-01

    Future health prospects depend increasingly on globalisation processes and on the impact of global environmental change. Economic globalisation--entailng deregulated trade and investment--is a mixed blessing for health. Economic growth and the dissemination of technologies have widely enhanced life expectancy. However, aspects of globalisation are jeopardising health by eroding social and environmental conditions, exacerbating the rich-poor gap, and disseminating consumerism. Global environmental changes reflect the growth of populations and the intensity of economic activity. These changes include altered composition of the atmosphere, land degradation, depletion of terrestrial aquifers and ocean fisheries, and loss of biodiversity. This weakening of life-supporting systems poses health risks. Contemporary public health must therefore encompass the interrelated tasks of reducing social and health inequalities and achieving health-sustaining environments. PMID:10981904

  2. Biomass burning a driver for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R. III; Cahoon, D.R. Jr.; Winstead, E.L.

    1995-03-01

    Recent research has identified another biospheric process that has instantaneous and longer term effects on the production of atmospheric gases: biomass burning. Biomass burning includes the burning of the world`s vegetation-forests, savannas. and agricultural lands, to clear the land and change its use. Only in the past decade have researchers realized the important contributions of biomass burning to the global budgets of many radiatively and chemically active gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide, tropospheric ozone, methyl chloride - and elemental carbon particulates. International field experiments and satellite data are yielding a clearer understanding of this important global source of atmospheric gases and particulates. It is seen that in addition to being a significant instantaneous global source of atmospheric gases and particulates, burning enhances the biogenic emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide from the world`s soils. Biomass burning affects the reflectivity and emissivity of the Earth`s surface as well as the hydrological cycle by changing rates of land evaporation and water runoff. For these reasons, it appears that biomass burning is a significant driver of global change. 20 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Tongcheng; Ko, Jonghan; Wall, Gerard W.; Pinter, Paul J.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; Kim, Han-Yong

    2016-07-01

    Potential impacts of climate change on grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) productivity were investigated using the CERES-sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer v4.5. The model was first calibrated for a sorghum cultivar grown in a free air CO2 enrichment experiment at the University of Arizona, Maricopa, Arizona, USA in 1998. The model was then validated with an independent dataset collected in 1999. The simulated grain yield, growth, and soil water of sorghum for the both years were in statistical agreement with the corresponding measurements, respectively. Neither simulated nor measured yields responded to elevated CO2, but both were sensitive to water supply. The validated model was then applied to simulate possible effects of climate change on sorghum grain yield and water use efficiency in western North America for the years 2080-2100. The projected CO2 fertilizer effect on grain yield was dominated by the adverse effect of projected temperature increases. Therefore, temperature appears to be a dominant driver of the global climate change influencing future sorghum productivity. These results suggest that an increase in water demand for sorghum production should be anticipated in a future high-CO2 world.

  4. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  5. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  6. Towards the global monitoring of biodiversity change.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Henrique M; David Cooper, H

    2006-03-01

    Governments have set the ambitious target of reducing biodiversity loss by the year 2010. The scientific community now faces the challenge of assessing the progress made towards this target and beyond. Here, we review current monitoring efforts and propose a global biodiversity monitoring network to complement and enhance these efforts. The network would develop a global sampling programme for indicator taxa (we suggest birds and vascular plants) and would integrate regional sampling programmes for taxa that are locally relevant to the monitoring of biodiversity change. The network would also promote the development of comparable maps of global land cover at regular time intervals. The extent and condition of specific habitat types, such as wetlands and coral reefs, would be monitored based on regional programmes. The data would then be integrated with other environmental and socioeconomic indicators to design responses to reduce biodiversity loss. PMID:16701487

  7. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  8. Stellar activity: Astrophysics relevant to global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haisch, Bernhard M.

    1994-01-01

    FRESIP will obtain a great deal of data on stellar activity and flares on F, G and K dwarfs. Rotation periods, flare distributions and possibly stellar cycles will emerge. This apparently curiosity-driven research actually has implications for our understanding of global climate change. Significant climate change during the seventeenth-century Maunder Minimum is thought to be related to a change in the solar condition. Recently acquired data from the Greenland Ice-core Project suggest that far greater climate changes on decade time scales may have occurred during the previous interglacial. It is possible that a yet more drastic change in state of the Sun was responsible. We have no relevant solar data, but can begin to explore this possibility by observing an ensemble of solar-like stars.

  9. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks

    PubMed Central

    Britten, Gregory L.; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  10. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    PubMed

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  11. Global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book is based on a symposium held in May 1990, sponsored by NASA, US EPA, and the North American Benthological Society. It focuses on the potential interactions between climate change and freshwater ecosystems. The assumption of global warming 2-5 degrees occurring in the next century was presented to the authors by the editors, and each author was asked to comment on how this warming might affect their particular system or process of interest. The book deals primarily with streams in the USA. Other chapters deal with the following topics: mechanisms driving global climate change; remote sensing; wetlands; lakes; general issues related to water resources and regional studies as they apply to flowing water.

  12. SAGE III capabilities and global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick

    1991-01-01

    The science objectives of the satellite-borne SAGE III are presented as they pertain to detecting global change. SAGE III is the proposed follow on and improved version of SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II which have measured stratospheric and, in some cases, tropospheric species since late 1978. Specifically, SAGE III will measure profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide and trioxide, neutral density, temperature, clouds, and chlorine dioxide using the solar and lunar occultation techniques. These techniques are inherently self-calibrating, provide high vertical resolution, and use well-behaved data retrievals making them ideal for trend detection and global change studies. The potential capabilities of SAGE III are illustrated by using data and results from SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II.

  13. Technologies for global change earth observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  14. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    SciTech Connect

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  15. Time series analyses of global change data.

    PubMed

    Lane, L J; Nichols, M H; Osborn, H B

    1994-01-01

    The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis

  16. Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, L.; Solomon, S. C.; Lastovicka, J.; Roble, R. G.

    2011-12-01

    Anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases warm the troposphere but have a cooling effect in the middle and upper atmosphere. The steady increase of CO2 is the dominant cause of upper atmosphere trends. Long-term changes of other radiatively active trace gases such as CH4, O3, and H2O, long-term changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, and other possible drivers also play a role. Observational and model studies have confirmed that in the past several decades, global cooling has occurred in the mesosphere and thermosphere; the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere has lowered the ionosphere, increased electron density in the lower ionosphere, but slightly decreased electron density in the upper ionosphere. Limited observations have suggested long-term changes in the occurrence rate of major stratospheric warming, mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, wave activities and turbulence in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and occurrence of noctilucent clouds or polar mesospheric clouds. However, possible long-term changes of these parameters remain to be open questions due to lack of measurements. We will review recent progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere, and discuss future investigations with a focus on how measurements by commercial reusable suborbital vehicles can help resolve the open questions.

  17. Moving Towards Leading Indicators for Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janetos, A.

    2014-12-01

    The development and implementation of a national indicators network relevant to climate change, impacts, and response options has taken advantage of the scientific expertise of a large number of disciplines related to global change. Like many previous and current indicators networks, this effort is focused on describing changes in the condition of a small number of indicators of current status and condition of important resources and processes. But an additional challenge remains, which is critically important for indicators that are meant to be used not only scientifically, but also to inform decision-makers: how should we think about indicators that are meant to impart information on future trajectories of the Earth system? In this presentation, I examine two different ways in which this might be accomplished - first is the use of leading indicators that are measures of current conditions, but for which their change over time is strongly correlated with future directions. The second is the use of model-based indicators. Both have strengths and weaknesses, and we explore how each can be approached in the context of global change.

  18. Global Change Impacts on Mangrove Ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water

  19. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  20. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  1. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  2. Global Change Geodesy: A Geophysical Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.

    2014-12-01

    It is a truism that as the precision of geodetic measurement techniques improves, the accuracy of the geophysical modeling of processes that contribute to the observations must keep pace. Studies of the Earth's response to human-induced climate change provide many notable, and pressing, illustrations of this axiom. For example, estimates of recent ice volume changes, as inferred from satellite gravity measurements, tide gauge and satellite-altimetry records of sea level changes, or astronomical and space-geodetic constraints on Earth rotation, require improved theoretical and numerical treatments of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age. However, the interplay between geodesy and geophysics is not a one-way street; geophysical modeling has emphasized, for example, that the geographic variability in sea level measurements - once considered a nuisance in efforts to infer long term trends - provides a powerful constraint on both the individual sources of meltwater and their sum. In this talk, I will discuss a series of case studies that demonstrate how interdisciplinary research at the interface between geodesy and geophysics has recently resolved several outstanding problems in global change research, including Walter Munk's enigma of global sea-level rise and the apparent failure to close the budget of twentieth century sea level. Moreover, in the same interdisciplinary context, I will highlight uncertainties that currently limit our understanding of polar ice sheet stability in a progressively warming world.

  3. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  4. Toward an understanding of global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    In the international scientific community, the International Council of Scientific Unions has organized the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) to address the problems of global change. The objective of the IGBP is to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human activities. The IGBP is currently in its preparatory phase, during which the program's goals and research components are slowly evolving and coming into focus. In this report, a limited number of high-priority research initiatives are recommended for early implementation as part of the U.S. contribution to the preparatory phase of the IGBP. The recommendations are based on the committee's analysis of the most critical gaps, not being addressed by existing programs, in the scientific knowledge needed to understand the changes that are occurring in the earth system on time scales of decades to centuries. These initiatives will build upon the capabilities of the U.S. program in global change.

  5. Biological diversity, ecology, and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Jutro, P R

    1991-12-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Unlike classical public health issues and many environmental issues, their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat that may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. At the same time, awareness of the magnitude of current and impending losses of the world's biological diversity has increased. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. We are just beginning to grasp the meaning of this loss in terms of opportunity costs to human society and the less quantifiable losses associated with simplification of natural ecosystems. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results. PMID:1820260

  6. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  7. Global change: What you can do

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    Hearings before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation are presented on simple things that a person can do to reduce threats to the global environment. Specific threats addressed include greenhouse warming, ozone depletion, acid rain, and other effects of pollution and global changes in marine ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, and human health. It is noted that even small steps, such as more double-sided photocopying, can save trees; that maintaining a second home wastes resources; and that several books written by one witness describe other things one can do to save the Earth. The Federal Government is urged to set an example and to pass appropriate legislation to encourage conservation and reduce pollution.

  8. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  9. Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers.

    PubMed

    Dlugokencky, Edward J; Nisbet, Euan G; Fisher, Rebecca; Lowry, David

    2011-05-28

    A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH(4)) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm(-2) to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm(-2) in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm(-2) of indirect forcing. Since CH(4) has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH(4)'s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH(4) abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH(4) lifetime, constrain total global CH(4) emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH(4) yr(-1). While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH(4) budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH(4) abundance and its isotopic composition (δ(13)C, δD(D=(2)H) and δ(14)C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes. PMID

  10. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  11. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    PubMed

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-01

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years. PMID:23908226

  12. Global change and human susceptibility to disease

    SciTech Connect

    Daily, G.C.; Ehrlich, P.R.

    1996-12-31

    Although the loss of good health is inherently unpredictable, human behavior at the individual and societal levels profoundly influences the incidence and evolution of disease. In this review, the authors define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of biophysical aspects of global change--changes in the size; mobility, and geographic distribution of the human population; land conversion; agricultural intensification; and climate change--is then examined. Human vulnerability to disease is strongly and deleteriously influenced by many of these ongoing, intensifying alterations. The authors then examine threats to human defenses against disease, including immune suppression, loss of biodiversity and indigenous knowledge, and the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Effective responses will require greatly enhanced attention by and collaboration among experts in diverse academic disciplines, in the private sector, and in government worldwide. 157 refs.

  13. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  14. Earth orbiting technologies for understanding global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Leonard A.; Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.; Couch, Lana M.

    We are all becoming more aware of concerns such as the ozone hole and ozone layer depletion, the build-up of greenhouse gasses and the potential for global climate change, the damage to our lakes and forests from acid rain, and the loss of species and genetic diversity. These are not only of scientific interest, but are of growing public media, federal governmental, and international concern, with the potential for major impacts on the international economy, potential for future development, and global standard of living. Yet our current understanding of how our global environment behaves is embryonic, and does not allow us to predict with confidence the consequences or long term significance of these phenomena. NASA has a significant national responsibility in Global Change research, which will require a major agency investment over the next few decades in obtaining the science data associated with understanding the Earth as a total system. Technology research and development is a natural complement to this national scientific program. In her report to the NASA Administrator, Dr. Sally K. Ride states that Mission to Planet Earth "requires advances in technology to enhance observations, to handle and deliver the enormous quantities of data, and to ensure a long operating life." These three themes (1) space-based observation technologies, (2) data/information technologies, and (3) spacecraft/operations technologies form the basis for NASA's efforts to identify the technologies needed to support the Mission to Planet Earth. In the observation area, developments in spacecraft and space-based instrument technologies are required to enable the accurate measurement of key parameters crucial to the understanding of global change. In the data/information area, developments in technologies are required to enable the long-term documentation of these parameters and the timely understanding of the data. And in the spacecraft/operations area, developments in spacecraft

  15. A Diffusion of Innovations Approach to Gerontological Curriculum Enrichment: Institutionalizing and Sustaining Curricular Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorfman, Lorraine T.; Murty, Susan A.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes a gerontological enrichment model for institutionalizing and sustaining curricular change utilizing Rogers' (1995, 2003) diffusion of innovations approach to organizational change. The goal of the project, funded by the John A. Hartford Foundation, is to transform the social work curriculum at a major state university so…

  16. Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries

    SciTech Connect

    Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

    1990-01-01

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

  17. Evaporation induced 18O and 13C enrichment in lake systems: A global perspective on hydrologic balance effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Travis W.; Defliese, William F.; Tripati, Aradhna K.; Oze, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Growing pressure on sustainable water resource allocation in the context of global development and rapid environmental change demands rigorous knowledge of how regional water cycles change through time. One of the most attractive and widely utilized approaches for gaining this knowledge is the analysis of lake carbonate stable isotopic compositions. However, endogenic carbonate archives are sensitive to a variety of natural processes and conditions leaving isotopic datasets largely underdetermined. As a consequence, isotopic researchers are often required to assume values for multiple parameters, including temperature of carbonate formation or lake water δ18O, in order to interpret changes in hydrologic conditions. Here, we review and analyze a global compilation of 57 lacustrine dual carbon and oxygen stable isotope records with a topical focus on the effects of shifting hydrologic balance on endogenic carbonate isotopic compositions. Through integration of multiple large datasets we show that lake carbonate δ18O values and the lake waters from which they are derived are often shifted by >+10‰ relative to source waters discharging into the lake. The global pattern of δ18O and δ13C covariation observed in >70% of the records studied and in several evaporation experiments demonstrates that isotopic fractionations associated with lake water evaporation cause the heavy carbon and oxygen isotope enrichments observed in most lakes and lake carbonate records. Modeled endogenic calcite compositions in isotopic equilibrium with lake source waters further demonstrate that evaporation effects can be extreme even in lake records where δ18O and δ13C covariation is absent. Aridisol pedogenic carbonates show similar isotopic responses to evaporation, and the relevance of evaporative modification to paleoclimatic and paleotopographic research using endogenic carbonate proxies are discussed. Recent advances in stable isotope research techniques present unprecedented

  18. Global flood risk under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Dag; Eppert, Stefan; Morrow, Guy

    2013-04-01

    This session focuses on data, methodologies and models available to develop a global probabilistic flood/drought risk model based on stochastic precipitation and temperature simulations. We will introduce a new framework to compute flood/drought risk and compare this approach with other currently used methodologies. We will explore the spatial and temporal correlations present in historical data as well as the contributions of tropical cyclone precipitation to the overall risk. Based on the analysis of current flood/drought risk the authors with give an outlook how this newly developed framework can be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on weather related risks.

  19. Environmental enrichment causes a global potentiation of neuronal responses across stimulus complexity and lamina of sensory cortex

    PubMed Central

    Alwis, Dasuni S.; Rajan, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Enriched social and physical housing produces many molecular, anatomical, electrophysiological and behavior benefits even in adult animals. Much less is known of its effects on cortical electrophysiology, especially in how sensory cortex encodes the altered environment, and extant studies have generally been restricted to neurons in input laminae in sensory cortex. To extend the understanding of how an enriched environment alters the way in which cortex views the world, we investigated enrichment-induced changes in neuronal encoding of sensory stimuli across all laminae of the rat barrel cortex receiving input from the face whisker tactile system. Animals were housed in Enriched (n = 13) or Isolated housing (n = 13) conditions for 8 weeks before extracellular recordings were obtained from barrel cortex in response to simple whisker deflections and whisker motions modeling movements seen in awake animals undertaking a variety of different tasks. Enrichment resulted in increases in neuronal responses to all stimuli, ranging from those modeling exploratory behavior through to discrimination behaviors. These increases were seen throughout the cortex from supragranular layers through to input Layer 4 and for some stimuli, in infragranular Layer 5. The observed enrichment-induced effect is consistent with the postulate that enrichment causes shift in cortical excitatory/inhibitory balance, and we demonstrate this is greatest in supragranular layers. However, we also report that the effects are non-selective for stimulus parameters across a range of stimuli except for one modeling the likely use of whiskers by the rats in the enriched housing. PMID:23964199

  20. Recommendation for funding the 1992 Global Change Summer Institute: Industrial ecology and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Fein, J.S.

    1992-12-31

    A summer institute on Industrial Ecology and Global Change was held at Snow Mass, Colorado, July 20--31, 1992. Topics of discussion included the following: the patterns and prospects of global industrialization; the vulnerability of the global environment to human activity; how industrial activity might be reconfigured in response to a deeper understanding of the major biogeochemical cycles in which this activity is embedded; how industrial activity might be reconfigured in response to a deeper understanding of associated exotic disturbances of the environment; interactions of human activity with basic environmental cycles; human activity in the form of exotic disturbance of the environment; and the dynamics of industrial development and the environmental implications.

  1. Global coccolithophore diversity: Drivers and future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Colleen J.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    We use the MAREDAT global compilation of coccolithophore species distribution and combine them with observations of climatological environmental conditions to determine the global-scale distribution of coccolithophore species diversity, its underlying drivers, and potential future changes. To this end, we developed a feed-forward neural network, which predicts 78% of the observed variance in coccolithophore diversity from environmental input variables (temperature, PAR, nitrate, silicic acid, mixed layer depth, excess phosphate (P∗) and chlorophyll). Light and temperature are the strongest predictors of coccolithophore diversity. Coccolithophore diversity is highest in the low latitudes, where coccolithophores are a relatively dominant component of the total phytoplankton community. Particularly high diversity is predicted in the western equatorial Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean, with additional peaks at approximately 30°N and 30°S. The global, zonal mean pattern is dominated by the Pacific Ocean, which shows a clear latitudinal gradient with diversity peaking at the equator, whereas in the Atlantic Ocean diversity is highest in the subtropics. We find a unimodal relationship between coccolithophore diversity and biomass, as has previously been observed for total phytoplankton assemblages. In contrast, diversity shows a negative relationship with total chlorophyll. Applying our diversity model to projections from the CMIP5 climate models, we project an increase in the diversity of coccolithophore assemblages by the end of this century.

  2. Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria.

    PubMed

    Paerl, Hans W; Paul, Valerie J

    2012-04-01

    Cyanobacteria are the Earth's oldest (∼3.5 bya) oxygen evolving organisms, and they have had major impacts on shaping our modern-day biosphere. Conversely, biospheric environmental perturbations, including nutrient enrichment and climatic changes (e.g. global warming, hydrologic changes, increased frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones, more intense and persistent droughts), strongly affect cyanobacterial growth and bloom potentials in freshwater and marine ecosystems. We examined human and climatic controls on harmful (toxic, hypoxia-generating, food web disrupting) bloom-forming cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) along the freshwater to marine continuum. These changes may act synergistically to promote cyanobacterial dominance and persistence. This synergy is a formidable challenge to water quality, water supply and fisheries managers, because bloom potentials and controls may be altered in response to contemporaneous changes in thermal and hydrologic regimes. In inland waters, hydrologic modifications, including enhanced vertical mixing and, if water supplies permit, increased flushing (reducing residence time) will likely be needed in systems where nutrient input reductions are neither feasible nor possible. Successful control of CyanoHABs by grazers is unlikely except in specific cases. Overall, stricter nutrient management will likely be the most feasible and practical approach to long-term CyanoHAB control in a warmer, stormier and more extreme world. PMID:21893330

  3. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts. PMID:21553952

  4. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  5. Global fish production and climate change.

    PubMed

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change. PMID:18077405

  6. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  7. Soil Microbial Community Responses to Long-Term Global Change Factors in a California Grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, K.; Peay, K.

    2015-12-01

    Soil fungal and bacterial communities act as mediators of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling, and interact with the aboveground plant community as both pathogens and mutualists. However, these soil microbial communities are sensitive to changes in their environment. A better understanding of the response of soil microbial communities to global change may help to predict future soil microbial diversity, and assist in creating more comprehensive models of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles. This study examines the effects of four global change factors (increased temperature, increased variability in precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and CO2 enrichment) on soil microbial communities at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), a full-factorial global change manipulative experiment on three hectares of California grassland. While similar studies have examined the effects of global change on soil microbial communities, few have manipulated more factors or been longer in duration than the JRGCE, which began field treatments in 1998. We find that nitrogen deposition, CO2 enrichment, and increased variability in precipitation significantly affect the structure of both fungal and bacterial communities, and explain more of the variation in the community structures than do local soil chemistry or aboveground plant community. Fungal richness is correlated positively with soil nitrogen content and negatively with soil water content. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), which associate closely with herbaceous plants' roots and assist in nutrient uptake, decrease in both richness and relative abundance in elevated CO2 treatments.

  8. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  9. Sensitivity of alpine watersheds to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zierl, B.; Bugmann, H.

    2003-04-01

    Mountains provide society with a wide range of goods and services, so-called mountain ecosystem services. Besides many others, these services include the most precious element for life on earth: fresh water. Global change imposes significant environmental pressure on mountain watersheds. Climate change is predicted to modify water availability as well as shift its seasonality. In fact, the continued capacity of mountain regions to provide fresh water to society is threatened by the impact of environmental and social changes. We use RHESSys (Regional HydroEcological Simulation System) to analyse the impact of climate as well as land use change (e.g. afforestation or deforestation) on hydrological processes in mountain catchments using sophisticated climate and land use scenarios. RHESSys combines distributed flow modelling based on TOPMODEL with an ecophysiological canopy model based on BIOME-BGC and a climate interpolation scheme based on MTCLIM. It is a spatially distributed daily time step model designed to solve the coupled cycles of water, carbon, and nitrogen in mountain catchments. The model is applied to various mountain catchments in the alpine area. Dynamic hydrological and ecological properties such as river discharge, seasonality of discharge, peak flows, snow cover processes, soil moisture, and the feedback of a changing biosphere on hydrology are simulated under current as well as under changed environmental conditions. Results of these studies will be presented and discussed. This project is part of an over overarching EU-project called ATEAM (acronym for Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) assessing the vulnerability of European ecosystem services.

  10. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  11. From global change science to action with social sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Mooney, Sian; Allen, D.; Beller-Simms, Nancy; Fish, T.; Grambsch, A.; Hohenstein, W.; Jacobs, Kathy; Kenney, Melissa A.; Lane, Meredith A.; Langner, L.; Larson, E.; McGinnis, D. L.; Moss, Richard H.; Nichols, L. G.; Nierenberg, Claudia; Seyller, E. A.; Stern, Paul; Winthrop, R.

    2014-08-01

    US efforts to integrate social and biophysical sciences to address the issue of global change exist within a wider movement to understand global change as a societal challenge and to inform policy. Insights from the social sciences can help transform global change research into action.

  12. COMMUNICATING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: INVESTIGATING MESSAGE STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNICATING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The research program is designed to generate findings that provide specific guidance to science communicators and government officials on how to best communicate knowledge about global climate change and other environmental issues to diverse lay audiences. Beyond providing gui...

  13. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  14. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  15. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

    PubMed

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  16. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  17. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  18. ATLAS-1 and middle atmosphere global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Torr, Marsha R.

    1994-01-01

    To understand the extent and trends of middle atmosphere change, it is necessary to establish the baseline of atmospheric behavior and its response to changes in solar irradiance over at least a solar cycle. An element in NASA's global change program is the ATLAS shuttle series. The international payload includes several instruments intended to make precise, absolute measurements of solar irradiance, each being calibrated before and after each shuttle flight. These instruments, in addition to obtaining an 11-year database, will also intercalibrate solar instruments on the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) and Upper Atmosphere Research (UARS) satellites. Other instruments will measure the atmospheric composition and temperature, also intercalibrating instruments on Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N and UARS. Some have flown on shuttle missions dating back to 1983 and it is hoped that the ATLAS series will provide a capability until the turn of the century. This paper reviews the early results of the ATLAS-1 mission, which flew between March 24 and April 2, 1992.

  19. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  20. Global environmental change research: empowering developing countries.

    PubMed

    Nobre, Carlos A; Lahsen, Myanna; Ometto, Jean P H B

    2008-09-01

    This paper discusses ways to reconcile the United Nations Millennium Development Goals with environmental sustainability at the national and international levels. The authors argue that development and better use of sustainability relevant knowledge is key, and that this requires capacity building globally, and especially in the less developed regions of the world. Also essential is stronger integration of high-quality knowledge creation and technology--and policy--development, including, importantly, the creation of centers of excellence in developing regions which effectively use and produce applications-directed high quality research and bring it to bear on decision making and practices related to environmental change and sustainable management of natural resources. The authors argue that Southern centers of excellence are a necessary first step for bottom-up societal transformation towards sustainability, and that such centers must help design innovative ways to assess and place value on ecosystem services. PMID:18797803

  1. Boreal forest health and global change.

    PubMed

    Gauthier, S; Bernier, P; Kuuluvainen, T; Shvidenko, A Z; Schepaschenko, D G

    2015-08-21

    The boreal forest, one of the largest biomes on Earth, provides ecosystem services that benefit society at levels ranging from local to global. Currently, about two-thirds of the area covered by this biome is under some form of management, mostly for wood production. Services such as climate regulation are also provided by both the unmanaged and managed boreal forests. Although most of the boreal forests have retained the resilience to cope with current disturbances, projected environmental changes of unprecedented speed and amplitude pose a substantial threat to their health. Management options to reduce these threats are available and could be implemented, but economic incentives and a greater focus on the boreal biome in international fora are needed to support further adaptation and mitigation actions. PMID:26293953

  2. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  3. 78 FR 52905 - Low Enriched Uranium From France: Initiation of Expedited Changed Circumstances Review, and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-27

    ... Antidumping Duty Order: Low Enriched Uranium From France, 67 FR 6680 (February 13, 2002). foreign utility end...: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Changed Circumstances Review, 77 FR 19642 (April 2, 2012) (Final... earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the Department extended the 18-month period for the re-exportation of...

  4. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  5. Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Llobet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land

  6. Climate change: Global risks, challenges and decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBean, Gordon

    2012-05-01

    In 2009, world leaders at the 15th Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to the Copenhagen Accord, which states in the opening paragraph, "To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, we shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change." This book addresses the key elements of that statement: On the basis of analyses of climate science, what is dangerous? Where does the 2°C come from? What are possible response measures, and can we hold at 2°C? What are the critical impacts and needs for adaptation? The book presents these issues in the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development and, most important, talks about the challenges.

  7. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  8. Climate change vulnerability of global hydropower generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farinosi, F.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2014-12-01

    This paper explores the vulnerability of global hydropower generation to the variability in seasonal averages as well as changes in extreme conditions of precipitation, surface runoff, and temperature. A statistical model is used to estimate the elasticity of hydroelectricity generation to the historical variation (1962-2010) in precipitation or runoff, while controlling for potential confounding factors and temperature changes. The estimated elasticities, which informs about hydropower sensitivity to meteorological variations, are combined with changes in future exposure around 2050 in different warming scenarios as simulated by an ensemble of GCMs participating in the CMIP5 project (Taylor et al., 2012). We use a panel regression model to estimate the parameters characterizing a reduced-form relationship between hydropower electricity generation at country level, a set of meteorological indicators, and number of other covariates that control for time-invariant country-specific heterogeneity (country effect), unspecified exogenous influences affecting all countries and units (time effects), and other confounding factors such the electricity generation mix. The estimated model shows that total annual runoff has a significant impact on the annual generation from the small and medium-sized units, whereas large-sized units do not appear to be sensitive to the inter-annual variation in runoff. This finding is reasonably explained by the greater buffer effect of reservoir capacity, which sensibly increases the resilience of these plants to inter-annual runoff variability. In medium-sized units an increase in total runoff by 1% increases electricity generation by 0.028%. Small-sized units are more sensitivity to inter-annual variations in runoff, and the same change in total runoff (1%) increases electricity generation by 0.037%. Seasonal temperature has also a significant impact. A 1% increase in spring temperature reduces electricity generation by 1.63%, while a 1

  9. Global change and the groundwater management challenge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorelick, Steven M.; Zheng, Chunmiao

    2015-05-01

    With rivers in critical regions already exploited to capacity throughout the world and groundwater overdraft as well as large-scale contamination occurring in many areas, we have entered an era in which multiple simultaneous stresses will drive water management. Increasingly, groundwater resources are taking a more prominent role in providing freshwater supplies. We discuss the competing fresh groundwater needs for human consumption, food production, energy, and the environment, as well as physical hazards, and conflicts due to transboundary overexploitation. During the past 50 years, groundwater management modeling has focused on combining simulation with optimization methods to inspect important problems ranging from contaminant remediation to agricultural irrigation management. The compound challenges now faced by water planners require a new generation of aquifer management models that address the broad impacts of global change on aquifer storage and depletion trajectory management, land subsidence, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, seawater intrusion, anthropogenic and geogenic contamination, supply vulnerability, and long-term sustainability. The scope of research efforts is only beginning to address complex interactions using multiagent system models that are not readily formulated as optimization problems and that consider a suite of human behavioral responses.

  10. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-12-31

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs.

  11. Creating aging-enriched social work education:a process of curricular and organizational change.

    PubMed

    Hooyman, Nancy; St Peter, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    The CSWE Geriatric Enrichment in Social Work Education Project, funded by the John A. Hartford foundation, aimed to change curricula and organizational structure in 67 GeroRich projects so that all students would graduate with foundation knowledge and skills to work effectively with older adults and their families. The emphasis was on change processes to infuse and sustain gerontological competencies and curricular resources in foundation courses. This article presents lessons learned and strategies for engaging faculty, practitioners and students in the curriculum and organizational change process. PMID:17200068

  12. Changing Composition of the Global Stratosphere.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McElroy, Michael B.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the chemistry of the stratosphere at mid-latitudes, the Antarctic phenomenon, and temporal trends in ozone levels. Includes equations, diagrams of the global distribution of ozone, and halogen growth projections. Concludes that studies of stratospheric ozone demonstrate that the global environment is fragile and is impacted by human…

  13. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  14. Management implications of global change for Great Plains rangelands

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Just as water and temperature drive the ecology of Great Plains rangelands, we predict that the impacts of global change on this region will be experienced largely through changes in these two important environmental variables. A third global change factor which will impact rangelands is increasing ...

  15. Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

  16. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  17. Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soffen, Gerald A.

    1988-01-01

    The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

  18. Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1994-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

  19. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  20. Problem free nuclear power and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.

    1997-08-15

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth`s atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO{sub 2} emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage.

  1. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  2. Using the Global Electric Circuit to monitor global climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, C. G.

    2013-12-01

    The global atmospheric electric circuit describes the global link between fair weather electric fields and currents measured at the Earth's surface, and the generator of these fields and currents in regions of stormy weather. Ever since the 1920s we have known about the global nature of these electric parameters, which appear to vary as a function of universal time (UT) and not local time (LT). It was also shown in the late 1920s that the "batteries" of the GEC are related to thunderstorm activity around the globe, that produce a clear global diurnal cycle due to the longitudinal distribution of the tropical landmasses. Due to the global nature of these electric fields and currents, the GEC supplies perhaps the only global geophysical index that can be measured at a single location on the Earth's surface, representing global electrical activity on the planet. The GEC can be broken down into a DC (direct current) part, and an AC (alternating current) part. Due to the global nature of the electric circuit it has been proposed by some to use geo-electric indices as proxies for changes in the global climate. If global warming results in changes in thunderstorm distribution, number and/or intensity, the GEC may allow us to monitor these changes from only a few ground stations. The advantages and disadvantages of using the GEC to monitor climate change will be presented together with some examples of how the global electric circuit has already been used to monitor changes in the Earth's climate.

  3. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  4. Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotberg, Iris C., Ed.

    2004-01-01

    In Balancing Change and Tradition in Global Education Reform, Rotberg brings together examples of current education reforms in sixteen countries, written by "insiders". This book goes beyond myths and stereotypes and describes the difficult trade-offs countries make as they attempt to implement reforms in the context of societal and global change.…

  5. Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Douglas E.

    This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

  6. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  7. Predicting plant invasion in an era of global change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Previous studies have indicated that ongoing global change will promote the spread of invasive plants. Recent research points to a more complex response. The components of global change that increase plant resources (e.g., rising CO2, N deposition) most consistently favor invasive species, but, chan...

  8. Botany and a changing world: introduction to the special issue on global biological change.

    PubMed

    Weller, Stephen G; Suding, Katharine; Sakai, Ann K

    2013-07-01

    The impacts of global change have heightened the need to understand how organisms respond to and influence these changes. Can we forecast how change at the global scale may lead to biological change? Can we identify systems, processes, and organisms that are most vulnerable to global changes? Can we use this understanding to enhance resilience to global changes? This special issue on global biological change emphasizes the integration of botanical information at different biological levels to gain perspective on the direct and indirect effects of global change. Contributions span a range of spatial scales and include both ecological and evolutionary timescales and highlight work across levels of organization, including cellular and physiological processes, individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Integrative botanical approaches to global change are critical for the ecological and evolutionary insights they provide and for the implications these studies have for species conservation and ecosystem management. PMID:23825138

  9. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  10. Changing Engineering Curriculum in the Globalizing World

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chung, Chak

    2011-01-01

    Background: Under the impact of globalization and the coming of the Information Age, there is a paradigm shift occurring in the engineering curriculum and academic structure. Apart from the creation of new programs for the emerging fields in engineering, the approach and orientation have also been shifted from objective-based/input-based education…

  11. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  12. Effect of temperature on biogeochemistry of marine organic-enriched systems: implications in a global warming scenario.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos; Valdemarsen, Thomas; Marín, Arnaldo; Holmer, Marianne

    2011-10-01

    Coastal biogeochemical cycles are expected to be affected by global warming. By means of a mesocosm experiment, the effect of increased water temperature on the biogeochemical cycles of coastal sediments affected by organic-matter enrichment was tested, focusing on the carbon, sulfur, and iron cycles. Nereis diversicolor was used as a model species to simulate macrofaunal bioirrigation activity in natural sediments. Although bioirrigation rates of N. diversicolor were not temperature dependent, temperature did have a major effect on the sediment metabolism. Under organic-enrichment conditions, the increase in sediment metabolism was greater than expected and occurred through the enhancement of anaerobic metabolic pathway rates, mainly sulfate reduction. There was a twofold increase in sediment metabolism and the accumulation of reduced sulfur. The increase in the benthic metabolism was maintained by the supply of electron acceptors through bioirrigation and as a result of the availability of iron in the sediment. As long as the sediment buffering capacity toward sulfides is not surpassed, an increase in temperature might promote the recovery of organic-enriched sediments by decreasing the time for mineralization of excess organic matter. PMID:22073651

  13. U.S. Global Change Research Program

    MedlinePlus

    ... Learn More Read the Full Announcement from NOAA Climate Change a Growing Threat to Human Health New USGCRP ... to Advisory Committee for the Sustained... Read more Climate Change a Growing Threat to Human Health: New USGCRP ...

  14. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Government of Canada Climate Change Site was developed to inform Canadians about climate change and how it affects our environment. The site explains what the Government of Canada is doing about climate change and how individuals, communities, businesses, industries, and ever...

  15. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-07-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  16. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  17. Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Potential impacts of global climate change on crop productivity have drawn much attention in recent years. To investigate these impacts on grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench] productivity, we calibrated the CERES-Sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT...

  18. Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Pete; Albanito, Fabrizio; Bell, Madeleine; Bellarby, Jessica; Blagodatskiy, Sergey; Datta, Arindam; Dondini, Marta; Fitton, Nuala; Flynn, Helen; Hastings, Astley; Hillier, Jon; Jones, Edward O.; Kuhnert, Matthias; Nayak, Dali R.; Pogson, Mark; Richards, Mark; Sozanska-Stanton, Gosia; Wang, Shifeng; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B.; Bottoms, Emily; Brown, Chris; Farmer, Jenny; Feliciano, Diana; Hao, Cui; Robertson, Andy; Vetter, Sylvia; Wong, Hon Man; Smith, Jo

    2012-01-01

    Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology. PMID:22144393

  19. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global change encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is defined as all subsurface water including soil water, dee...

  20. Coastal wetlands and global change: overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guntenspergen, G.R.; Vairin, B.; Burkett, V.R.

    1997-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

  1. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  2. Response of Earth's Ecosystem to Global Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, David L.

    1996-01-01

    The Earth is in the midst of rapid and unprecedented change, much of it caused by the enormous reproductive and resource acquisition success of the human population. For the first time in Earth's history, the actions of one species-humans-are altering the atmospheric, climatic, biospheric, and edaphic processes on a scale that rivals natural processes. How will ecosystems, involving those manipulated and managed by humans largely for human use, respond to these changes? Clearly ecosystems have been adjusting to change throughout Earth's history and evolving in ways to adapt and to maintain self-organizing behavior. And in this process, the metabolic activity of the biosphere has altered the environmental conditions it experiences. I am going to confine this presentation to a few thoughts on the present state of terrestrial ecosystems and the urgency that changes in it is bringing to all of us.

  3. Global scale emission and distribution of sea-spray aerosol: Sea-salt and organic enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vignati, E.; Facchini, M. C.; Rinaldi, M.; Scannell, C.; Ceburnis, D.; Sciare, J.; Kanakidou, M.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Dentener, F.; O'Dowd, C. D.

    2010-02-01

    The chemical composition of marine aerosols as a function of their size is an important parameter for the evaluation of their impact on the global climate system. In this work we model fine particle organic matter emitted by sea spray processes and its influence on the aerosol chemical properties at the global scale using the off-line global Chemistry-Transport Model TM5. TM5 is coupled to a microphysical aerosol dynamics model providing size resolved information on particle masses and numbers. The mass of the emitted sea spray particles is partitioned between water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) and sea salt components in the accumulation mode using a function that relates the emitted organic fraction to the surface ocean chlorophyll- a concentrations. The global emission in the sub-micron size range of organic matter by sea spray process is 8.2 Tg yr -1, compared to 24 Tg fine yr -1 sea-salt emissions. When the marine sources are included, the concentrations of modelled primary particulate organic matter (POM) increase mainly over the oceans. The model predictions of WIOM and sea salt are evaluated against measurements carried out at Mace Head (Northern Hemisphere) and Amsterdam Island (Southern Hemisphere), showing that in clean marine conditions WIOM marine emissions contribute significantly to POM values.

  4. Radar altimetry and global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Dobson, E.B.; Monaldo, F.M.; Porter, D.L.; Robinson, A.R.; Kilgus, C.C.; Goldhirsh, J.; Glenn, S.M. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ )

    1992-09-01

    The use of satellite radar altimetry for monitoring global climatic variables is examined in the context of the altimeter for the Geosat Follow-On program. The requirements of studying climate and ocean circulation are described for the particular case of the North Atlantic, and the use of spaceborne altimetry is discussed for three measurement types. Altimeters measure sea-surface height and the ice edge to give data on mesoscale variability and circulation, interannual variability, and air-sea interactions. The altimeters for the Geosat program are expected to include orbit-determination systems for removal of the orbital signature and a radiometer for measuring water vapor. The altimeters are expected to be useful in studying ocean circulation and climate, and existing data support in situ measurements. Spaceborne radar altimetry can provide important data for understanding CO[sub 2] uptake, biogeochemical fluxes, and the thermocline conveyor belt. 30 refs.

  5. Globalization and School Curriculum Change: Locating a Transnational Imaginary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gough, Noel

    1999-01-01

    Discusses global perspectives already entrenched in many school subjects and examines popular expectations that the globalization of new information technologies will transform (Australian) schools and their curricula. Electronic media, like TV and radio, have not changed schools as they have society at large. School culture remains…

  6. Children in Psychodynamic Psychotherapy: Changes in Global Functioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odhammar, Fredrik; Sundin, Eva C.; Jonson, Mattias; Carlberg, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    This study was part of the Erica Process and Outcome Study. The aim was to investigate if children's global functioning improves after psychodynamic psychotherapy. Variables that may predict changes in global functioning were examined both statistically and qualitatively, for example, the child's age and gender; diagnosis and comorbidity;…

  7. Global food security under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

  8. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  10. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  11. A SUMMARY OF NHEERL ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of this document is to review ecological research conducted by scientists at the National Health and Environmental Research Laboratory (NHEERL) under the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) contribution to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The inten...

  12. Twenty-Five Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2014-12-01

    An interdisciplinary approach to global change research is required for scientific advances that are both fundamental and relevant to real-world problems. The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI), under the leadership of director John Katzenberger, has provided global leadership for such interdisciplinary science over the past 25 years. From its first workshop, AGCI has brought together physical and social scientists researching the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. The sessions are small (usually around 30 participants), held in a retreat-like setting (recently in a tent near a stream), and long enough (a week or more) to allow communication, reflection, and planning. Landmark AGCI science sessions have frequently set the course of future global change research.

  13. Interagency working group on data management for global change

    SciTech Connect

    Barton, G.

    1992-12-31

    This article describes the Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change, organized in 1987. Approaches of the Group to data management problems are given along with its accomplishments.

  14. Adaptation to Global Change: A Transposable Element-Epigenetics Perspective.

    PubMed

    Rey, Olivier; Danchin, Etienne; Mirouze, Marie; Loot, Céline; Blanchet, Simon

    2016-07-01

    Understanding how organisms cope with global change is a major scientific challenge. The molecular pathways underlying rapid adaptive phenotypic responses to global change remain poorly understood. Here, we highlight the relevance of two environment-sensitive molecular elements: transposable elements (TEs) and epigenetic components (ECs). We first outline the sensitivity of these elements to global change stressors and review how they interact with each other. We then propose an integrative molecular engine coupling TEs and ECs and allowing organisms to fine-tune phenotypes in a real-time fashion, adjust the production of phenotypic and genetic variation, and produce heritable phenotypes with different levels of transmission fidelity. We finally discuss the implications of this molecular engine in the context of global change. PMID:27080578

  15. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  16. Global lightning activity and climate change. Ph.D. Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCM`s) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. The first chapter introduces a simple parameterization used to simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. The second chapter deals with a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. The third chapter deals with the modelling of lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. This chapter presents results from the model`s control run. The fourth chapter presents two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9 C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (4.2 C global warming). The results imply a 24% / 30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The fifth chapter considers the possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming. The results show that the earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could possibly supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The sixth and final chapter looks at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires.

  17. Temperature, global climate change and food security

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accelerated climate change is expected to have a significant, but variable impact on the world’s major cropping zones. Crops will experience increasingly warmer, drier and more variable growing conditions in the temperate to subtropical latitudes towards 2050 and beyond. Short-term (1-5 day) spikes ...

  18. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  19. Modelling of global change at the mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A.; Brasseur, G.

    2003-04-01

    Significant negative temperature trend at the northern hemisphere mesospause for winter season has been documented by different methods of observations. For studying mechanisms of the mesopause cooling, simulations with the use of the chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model named SOCRATES are used. Probable mechanisms of the observed cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be of radiation as well as dynamical nature. Among these are changes in contents of greenhouse gases and changes in gravity wave momentum deposition affecting the meridional circulation in the upper mesosphere. Combined increase for the last 50 year, in accordance with the observed trends, in contents of CO2, methane, N2O, and water vapor as well as the lower troposphere warming results in a simulated cooling of a few K at the mesopause for winter and summer seasons. This shows that the trends in the contents of greenhouse gases and the lower troposphere temperature are not the only (and, probably, not the main) reason of the large cooling in the upper mesosphere, at least in the framework of a two-dimensional model. Long-term changes in the circulation resulting in changes of gravity wave momentum and energy deposition, which affects the circulation in the middle atmosphere, could also be responsible for this effect. As an example, the doubling of the model gravity wave forcing results in an essential cooling by several K at the northern hemisphere mesopause in winter. The simulated effect of combined changes in contents of greenhouse gases, low troposphere temperature, and doubling of the gravity wave forcing is the cooling of the model mesopause by 8-10 K in the middle-to-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in winter, along with insignificant thermal effect in summer.

  20. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Ellis, E. C.; Oates, T.; Schmill, M.

    2014-02-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment - a representativeness analysis - with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth.

  1. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    SciTech Connect

    Sommers, W.T.

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  2. Global environmental changes: setting priorities for Latin American coastal habitats.

    PubMed

    Turra, Alexander; Cróquer, Aldo; Carranza, Alvar; Mansilla, Andrés; Areces, Arsenio J; Werlinger, Camilo; Martínez-Bayón, Carlos; Nassar, Cristina Aparecida Gomes; Plastino, Estela; Schwindt, Evangelina; Scarabino, Fabrizio; Chow, Fungyi; Figueroa, Felix Lopes; Berchez, Flávio; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Soto, Luis A; Buckeridge, Marcos Silveira; Copertino, Margareth S; de Széchy, Maria Tereza Menezes; Ghilardi-Lopes, Natalia Pirani; Horta, Paulo; Coutinho, Ricardo; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Leão, Zelinda Margarida de Andrade Nery

    2013-07-01

    As the effects of the Global Climate Changes on the costal regions of Central and South Americas advance, there is proportionally little research being made to understand such impacts. This commentary puts forward a series of propositions of strategies to improve performance of Central and South American science and policy making in order to cope with the future impacts of the Global Climate Changes in their coastal habitats. PMID:23504820

  3. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  4. Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yaoxian; Wu, Shiliang; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2015-11-01

    The occurrence of wildfires is very sensitive to fire meteorology, vegetation type and coverage. We investigate the potential impacts of global change (including changes in climate, land use/land cover, and population density) on wildfire frequencies over the period of 2000-2050. We account for the impacts associated with the changes in fire meteorology (such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity), vegetation density, as well as lightning and anthropogenic ignitions. Fire frequencies under the 2050 conditions are projected to increase by approximately 27% globally relative to the 2000 levels. Significant increases in fire occurrence are calculated over the Amazon area, Australia and Central Russia, while Southeast Africa shows a large decreasing trend due to significant increases in land use and population. Changes in fire meteorology driven by 2000-2050 climate change are found to increase the global annual total fires by around 19%. Modest increases (∼4%) in fire frequency at tropical regions are calculated in response to climate-driven changes in lightning activities, relative to the present-day levels. Changes in land cover by 2050 driven by climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization are expected to increase the global wildfire occurrences by 15% relative to the 2000 conditions while the 2000-2050 anthropogenic land use changes show little effects on global wildfire frequency. The 2000-2050 changes in global population are projected to reduce the total wildfires by about 7%. In general, changes in future fire meteorology plays the most important role in enhancing the future global wildfires, followed by land cover, lightning activities and land use while changes in population density exhibits the opposite effects during the period of 2000-2050.

  5. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  6. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  7. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  8. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  9. 77 FR 1059 - Low Enriched Uranium From France: Initiation of Antidumping Duty Changed Circumstances Review

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-09

    ... enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) with a U\\235\\ product assay of less than 20 percent that has not been... cover enriched uranium hexafluoride with a U\\235\\ assay of 20 percent or greater, also known as...

  10. Global Analysis Reveals Families of Chemical Motifs Enriched for hERG Inhibitors

    PubMed Central

    Du, Fang; Babcock, Joseph J.; Yu, Haibo; Zou, Beiyan; Li, Min

    2015-01-01

    Promiscuous inhibition of the human ether-à-go-go-related gene (hERG) potassium channel by drugs poses a major risk for life threatening arrhythmia and costly drug withdrawals. Current knowledge of this phenomenon is derived from a limited number of known drugs and tool compounds. However, in a diverse, naïve chemical library, it remains unclear which and to what degree chemical motifs or scaffolds might be enriched for hERG inhibition. Here we report electrophysiology measurements of hERG inhibition and computational analyses of >300,000 diverse small molecules. We identify chemical ‘communities’ with high hERG liability, containing both canonical scaffolds and structurally distinctive molecules. These data enable the development of more effective classifiers to computationally assess hERG risk. The resultant predictive models now accurately classify naïve compound libraries for tendency of hERG inhibition. Together these results provide a more complete reference map of characteristic chemical motifs for hERG liability and advance a systematic approach to rank chemical collections for cardiotoxicity risk. PMID:25700001

  11. From local to global changes in proteins: a network view.

    PubMed

    Vuillon, Laurent; Lesieur, Claire

    2015-04-01

    To fulfill the biological activities in living organisms, proteins are endowed with dynamics, robustness and adaptability. The three properties co-exist because they allow global changes in structure to arise from local perturbations (dynamics). Robustness refers to the ability of the protein to incur such changes without suffering loss of function; adaptability is the emergence of a new biological activity. Since loss of function may jeopardize the survival of the organism and lead to disease, adaptability may occur through the combination of two local perturbations that together rescue the initial function. The review highlights the relevancy of computational network analysis to understand how a local change produces global changes. PMID:25791607

  12. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    PubMed

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping. PMID:18262823

  13. How climate change will exacerbate global water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel; Clark, Douglas; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten

    2013-04-01

    Water scarcity, in particular the dearth of renewable water resources for agricultural, industrial and domestic purposes, severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Ex- pected future population changes will, in most countries as well as globally, increase water scarcity through increased demand. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. The magnitude and pattern of hydrological changes however depend on complex interactions between climate, biosphere, and surface properties. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by five global climate models (GCMs) in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show that climate change is very likely to exacerbate the global water scarcity problem significantly. In particular, the simulation ensemble average projects that beyond a global warming of 1°C above 1980-2010 levels (approx. 1.5°C above pre-industrial), each additional degree of warming confronts an additional 7-10% of global population with a severe (>20%) decrease in water resources. A warming of 3°C is projected to enhance the global increase in absolute water scarcity, expected from population changes alone, by about 25%, together amounting to more 13% (5-30%) of the world population living at less than 500m3 annual runoff per capita by the end of this century. The projected impacts at different levels of global warming are similar across different climate change scenarios, indicating that dependence on the rate of climate change is low. At the same time, the study highlights significant uncertainties associated with these projections, resulting both from the spread among climate projections and from the GHMs.

  14. The physiology of global change: linking patterns to mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Somero, George N

    2012-01-01

    Global change includes alterations in ocean temperature, oxygen availability, salinity, and pH, abiotic variables with strong and interacting influences on the physiology of all taxa. Physiological stresses resulting from changes in these four variables may cause broad biogeographic shifts as well as localized changes in distribution in mosaic habitats. To elucidate these causal linkages, I address the following questions: What types of physiological limitations can alter species' distributions and, in cases of extreme stress, cause extinctions? Which species are most threatened by these physiological challenges--and why? How do contents of genomes establish capacities to respond to global change, notably in the case of species that have evolved in highly stable habitats? How fully can phenotypic acclimatization offset abiotic stress? Can physiological measurements, including new molecular ("-omic") approaches, provide indices of the degree of sublethal stress an organism experiences? And can physiological evolution keep pace with global change? PMID:22457968

  15. Understanding change in global health policy: ideas, discourse and networks.

    PubMed

    Harmer, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    How is radical change in global health policy possible? Material factors such as economics or human resources are important, but ideational factors such as ideas and discourse play an important role as well. In this paper, I apply a theoretical framework to show how discourse made it possible for public and private actors to fundamentally change their way of working together--to shift from international public and private interactions to global health partnerships (GHPs)--and in the process create a new institutional mechanism for governing global health. Drawing on insights from constructivist analysis, I demonstrate how discourse justified, legitimised, communicated and coordinated ideas about the practice of GHPs through a concentrated network of partnership pioneers. As attention from health policy analysts turns increasingly to ideational explanations for answers to global health problems, this paper contributes to the debate by showing how, precisely, discourse makes change possible. PMID:20924870

  16. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, H.; Ribes, A.; Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

  17. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Sheehan, J.

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  18. Synergies among extinction drivers under global change.

    PubMed

    Brook, Barry W; Sodhi, Navjot S; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2008-08-01

    If habitat destruction or overexploitation of populations is severe, species loss can occur directly and abruptly. Yet the final descent to extinction is often driven by synergistic processes (amplifying feedbacks) that can be disconnected from the original cause of decline. We review recent observational, experimental and meta-analytic work which together show that owing to interacting and self-reinforcing processes, estimates of extinction risk for most species are more severe than previously recognised. As such, conservation actions which only target single-threat drivers risk being inadequate because of the cascading effects caused by unmanaged synergies. Future work should focus on how climate change will interact with and accelerate ongoing threats to biodiversity, such as habitat degradation, overexploitation and invasive species. PMID:18582986

  19. Rapid porosity and permeability changes of calcareous sandstone due to CO2-enriched brine injection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamy-Chappuis, Benoit; Angus, Doug; Fisher, Quentin; Grattoni, Carlos; Yardley, Bruce W. D.

    2014-01-01

    Reservoir injectivity and storage capacity are the main constraints for geologic CO2 sequestration, subject to safety and economic considerations. Brine acidification following CO2 dissolution leads to fluid-rock interactions that alter porosity and permeability, thereby affecting reservoir storage capacity and injectivity. Thus, we determined how efficiently CO2-enriched brines could dissolve calcite in sandstone cores and how this affects the petrophysical properties. During computerized tomography monitored flow-through reactor experiments, calcite dissolved at a rate largely determined by the rate of acid supply, even at high flow velocities which would be typical near an injection well. The porosity increase was accompanied by a significant increase in rock permeability, larger than that predicted using classical porosity-permeability models. This chemically driven petrophysical change might be optimized using injection parameters to maximize injectivity and storage.

  20. Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Nancy C; Angelard, Caroline; Sanders, Ian R; Kiers, E Toby

    2013-05-01

    Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change. PMID:23679013

  1. Land use change and nitrogen enrichment of a Rocky Mountain watershed.

    PubMed

    Kaushal, Sujay S; Lewis, William M; McCutchan, James H

    2006-02-01

    Headwater ecosystems may have a limited threshold for retaining and removing nutrients delivered by certain types of land use. Nitrogen enrichment was studied in a Rocky Mountain watershed undergoing rapid expansion of population and residential development. Study sites were located along a 30-km transect from the headwaters of the Blue River to Lake Dillon, a major source of drinking water for Denver, Colorado. Ground water in residential areas with septic systems showed high concentrations of nitrate-N (4.96 +/- 1.22 mg/L, mean +/- SE), and approximately 40% of wells contained nitrate with delta15N values in the range of wastewater. Concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in tributaries with residential development peaked during spring snowmelt as concentrations of DIN declined to below detection limits in undeveloped tributaries. Annual export of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) was considerably lower in residential streams, suggesting a change in forms of N with development. The seasonal delta15N of algae in residential streams was intermediate between baseline values from undeveloped streams and stream algae grown on wastewater. Between 19% and 23% of the annual N export from developed tributaries was derived from septic systems, as estimated from the delta15N of algae. This range was similar to the amount of N export above background determined independently from mass-balance estimates. From a watershed perspective, total loading of N to the Blue River catchment from septic and municipal wastewater (2 kg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) is currently less than the amount from background atmospheric sources (3 kg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)). Nonetheless, nitrate-N concentrations exceeded limits for safe drinking water in some groundwater wells (10 mg/L), residential streams showed elevated seasonal patterns of nitrate-N concentration and ratios of DIN to total dissolved phosphorus, and seasonal minimum concentrations of nitrate-N in Lake Dillon have increased

  2. Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Buckley, Yvonne M; Cleland, Elsa E; Davies, Kendi F; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M; MacDougall, Andrew S; Orrock, John L; Prober, Suzanne M; Adler, Peter B; Anderson, T Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D; Biederman, Lori A; Blumenthal, Dana M; Brown, Cynthia S; Brudvig, Lars A; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Crawley, Michael J; Damschen, Ellen I; Dantonio, Carla M; DeCrappeo, Nicole M; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S; Humphries, Hope C; Jin, Virginia L; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P; Klein, Julia A; Knops, Johannes M H; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L; Melbourne, Brett A; Mitchell, Charles E; Moore, Joslin L; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R; Pyke, David A; Risch, Anita C; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D; Stevens, Carly J; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie

    2015-01-01

    Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands. PMID:26173623

  3. Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Seabloom, Eric W.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Cleland, Elsa E.; Davies, Kendi F.; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Orrock, John L.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Adler, Peter B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Biederman, Lori A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Crawley, Michael J.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Dantonio, Carla M.; DeCrappeo, Nicole M.; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A.; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S.; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S.; Humphries, Hope C.; Jin, Virginia L.; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Klein, Julia A.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G.; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Mitchell, Charles E.; Moore, Joslin L.; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Pyke, David A.; Risch, Anita C.; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D.; Stevens, Carly J.; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D.; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie

    2015-01-01

    Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands. PMID:26173623

  4. Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bills, Bruce G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

  5. Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.

    2010-10-01

    Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.

  6. USGCRP Global Change Information System Support for the SOCCR-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Shrestha, G.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2) will be a highly influential scientific assessment like the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and contain global change information that will be transparent and traceable enabling reasonable reproducibility. The Global Change Information System (GCIS) was created by the USGCRP to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. An open-source web-based resource, GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will soon support the 2016 release of the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. When the SOCCR-2 is released, GCIS will serve as a scalable backend for the report's web based version. GCIS will provide named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments on which the report was based. By building on information from these previous activities, provenance information stored in GCIS will be a key factor in SOCCR-2's transparency and traceability.

  7. Defining Health Diplomacy: Changing Demands in the Era of Globalization

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-01-01

    Context: Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. Methods: In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Findings: Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. Conclusions: The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. PMID:21933277

  8. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change and related global concerns dominate the current environmental agenda as evidenced by the recent wave of articles, symposia workshops, and other scientific and lay forms dealing with this issue. hile most atmospheric scientists agree that a climate change "signal" ...

  9. Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Sutherst, Robert W

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  10. Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Sutherst, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  11. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  12. The Effects of Global Change upon United States Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of change...

  13. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  14. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years.

    PubMed

    Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F; Roderick, Michael L

    2012-11-15

    Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years. PMID:23151587

  15. Weighted enrichment method for prediction of transcription regulators from transcriptome and global chromatin immunoprecipitation data

    PubMed Central

    Kawakami, Eiryo; Nakaoka, Shinji; Ohta, Tazro; Kitano, Hiroaki

    2016-01-01

    Predicting responsible transcription regulators on the basis of transcriptome data is one of the most promising computational approaches to understanding cellular processes and characteristics. Here, we present a novel method employing vast amounts of chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) experimental data to address this issue. Global high-throughput ChIP data was collected to construct a comprehensive database, containing 8 578 738 binding interactions of 454 transcription regulators. To incorporate information about heterogeneous frequencies of transcription factor (TF)-binding events, we developed a flexible framework for gene set analysis employing the weighted t-test procedure, namely weighted parametric gene set analysis (wPGSA). Using transcriptome data as an input, wPGSA predicts the activities of transcription regulators responsible for observed gene expression. Validation of wPGSA with published transcriptome data, including that from over-expressed TFs, showed that the method can predict activities of various TFs, regardless of cell type and conditions, with results totally consistent with biological observations. We also applied wPGSA to other published transcriptome data and identified potential key regulators of cell reprogramming and influenza virus pathogenesis, generating compelling hypotheses regarding underlying regulatory mechanisms. This flexible framework will contribute to uncovering the dynamic and robust architectures of biological regulation, by incorporating high-throughput experimental data in the form of weights. PMID:27131787

  16. Challenges in Global Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, K. C.

    2011-12-01

    For the purposes of projecting and anticipating human-induced land use change at the global scale, much work remains in the systematic mapping and modeling of world-wide land uses and their related dynamics. In particular, research has focused on tropical deforestation, loss of prime agricultural land, loss of wild land and open space, and the spread of urbanization. Fifteen years of experience in modeling land use and land cover change at the regional and city level with the cellular automata model SLEUTH, including cross city and regional comparisons, has led to an ability to comment on the challenges and constraints that apply to global level land use change modeling. Some issues are common to other modeling domains, such as scaling, earth geometry, and model coupling. Others relate to geographical scaling of human activity, while some are issues of data fusion and international interoperability. Grid computing now offers the prospect of global land use change simulation. This presentation summarizes what barriers face global scale land use modeling, but also highlights the benefits of such modeling activity on global change research. An approach to converting land use maps and forecasts into environmental impact measurements is proposed. Using such an approach means that multitemporal mapping, often using remotely sensed sources, and forecasting can also yield results showing the overall and disaggregated status of the environment.

  17. Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

    1996-12-31

    Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point and the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.

  18. Interactive Sectoring and Animation of Global Change Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Paul J.; Buillory, Anthony R.; Atkinson, Robert J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    1999-01-01

    In order to analyze and share results of global change data sets, scientists require a venue in which to exchange their results. One appropriate medium for these collaborative efforts is the world wide web. Intuitive and efficient user interfaces, and background processes have been developed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center to interactively view weather satellite, radar, global temperature anomaly, and model output data using the world wide web. These tools combine scripts, Java and C code which allows the user to easily interact with data, to create high resolution sector images, and sectored animation sequences. This paper examines the architecture and interfaces and how they are used for collaborative research.

  19. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  20. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  1. Global flood risks under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Ward, Philip; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Worldwide major flood events result in both economic losses and large numbers of casualties. Recent global scale studies indicate that in many regions of the world discharge extremes are likely to increase under changing climate conditions. However, few studies have so far examined how these changes in climate conditions may affect flood risk (defined here as the probability of a flood multiplied by the consequences). In the current study we investigate the impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on flood extents and depths, and also assess the potential impacts on flood risk. The study is conducted on a global scale, thereby indicating in which regions of the world flood risk is likely to change most. To assess global food risk under changing conditions, we combined socio-economic data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) framework of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) with high resolution maps of inundation depth (1 km). To this end, projections from a number of GCMs were bias-corrected and used to force the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB which simulates (amongst other variables) global maps with daily flood volumes on a 0.5 degree resolution. These time series were used to derive flood volume maps for multiple return periods, which were downscaled to inundation depth maps at 1 km resolution using a 1 km resolution DEM. Finally, these high resolution flood maps were combined with spatial datasets on future GDP and population density from the IMAGE model. Results are presented on both the global scale and at the country level. We believe that the obtained flood extend and flood risk maps can assist development agencies in planning climate adaptation investments that aim to reduce flood risks.

  2. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  3. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  4. Global versus local effects on climate change in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, Heiko; Müller, Markus; Mannig, Birgit

    2015-10-01

    Regional climate change arises from two processes which, in the real climate system, cannot be separated from each other: local radiative forcing and advection of air masses from regions which themselves have been subject to climate change. In this study, we present an experimental design based on a regional climate model allowing for the assessment of global and local effects on future climate change in Asia. We carry out two runs which are characterized by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations within the model domain, but one (the control run) is one-way nested into a global control run at the lateral and oceanic boundaries while the other (the forced run) is one-way nested into a consistently forced global simulation. The aim is to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change in a regional context. It turns out that temperature and precipitation changes in Asia are indeed mostly related to changes in the advected air masses which enter along the lateral boundaries. Regionally confined greenhouse forcing only affects the atmospheric heating rate while precipitation and atmospheric circulation features remain more or less unchanged. Temperature changes in the forced experiment are partly governed by warmer air masses penetrating the lateral boundaries and partly by a modification of atmospheric circulation processes, including a tendency towards a double-trough structure over Central Asia and changing temperature advection. The trend pattern of precipitation is much more heterogeneous in space but can partly be attributed to changes in horizontal wind divergence and vertical velocity.

  5. Data and information system requirements for Global Change Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skole, David L.; Chomentowski, Walter H.; Ding, Binbin; Moore, Berrien, III

    1992-01-01

    Efforts to develop local information systems for supporting interdisciplinary Global Change Research are described. A prototype system, the Interdisciplinary Science Data and Information System (IDS-DIS), designed to interface the larger archives centers of EOS-DIS is presented. Particular attention is given to a data query information management system (IMS), which has been used to tabulate information of Landsat data worldwide. The use of these data in a modeling analysis of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions is demonstrated. The development of distributed local information systems is considered to be complementary to the development of central data archives. Global Change Research under the EOS program is likely to result in proliferation of data centers. It is concluded that a distributed system is a feasible and natural way to manage data and information for global change research.

  6. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  7. Gas hydrates—geological perspective and global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvenvolden, Keith A.

    1993-05-01

    Natural gas hydrates occur worldwide in polar regions, normally associated with onshore and offshore permafrost, and in sediment of outer continental and insular margins. The total amount of methane in gas hydrates likely exceeds 1019 g of methane carbon. Three aspects of gas hydrates are important: their fossil fuel resource potential, their role as a submarine geohazard, and their effects on global climate change. Because gas hydrates represent a large amount of methane within 2000 m of the Earth's surface, they are considered to be an unconventional, unproven source of fossil fuel. Because gas hydrates are metastable, changes of pressure and temperature affect their stability. Destabilized gas hydrates beneath the seafloor lead to geologic hazards such as submarine slumps and slides, examples of which are found worldwide. Destabilized gas hydrates may also affect climate through the release of methane, a "greenhouse" gas, which may enhance global warming and be a factor in global climate change.

  8. No easy answers for global climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakefield, J.

    First the word was that not only car emissions but cow burps may play a significant role in global warming. Then, the story turned to rice paddies and cockroaches as likely sources of greenhouse gases. Sound confusing? It should.Now even experts readily admit global warming research is chock-full of uncertainties. And these issues offer only a freeze-frame of the broader climate change motion picture. Everything from whether sea levels will rise to whether hurricanes will be come more frequent to whether solar forcing plays a role in all of this is now in question. This means that making and implementing effective international climate change policies remains a tenuous process—even at a time when the overall funding for global change research is at an all-time high in the United States.

  9. Central Africa: Global climate change and development. Synopsis

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    Central Africa contains the largest remaining contiguous expanse of moist tropical forest on the African continent and the second largest in the world. However, deforestation rates are rising as the result of rapid population growth, inappropriate economic policies, economic downturns, and weak management capacities. If clearing rates continue to rise, a substantial amount of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere, thus contributing to global climate change. The report summarizes a study designed as a first step in understanding the complex dynamics of the causes and effects of global climate change in Central Africa. The current state of the region's forests, greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and biomass burning, and the potential impacts of global climate change are discussed.

  10. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  11. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  12. Simulation of CO2 enrichment and climate change impacts on soybean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Tongcheng; Ha, Bokeun; Ko, Jonghan

    2016-01-01

    The potential doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated changes in temperature and precipitation are crucial issues for agricultural productivity. The CROPGRO-Soybean model in decision support system for agro-technology transfer v4.5 to simulate soybean (Glycine max cv. Pioneer 93B15) grown in an elevated CO2 environment was calibrated and validated. Crop growth and yield data were obtained from a series of experiments conducted in central Illinois at the soybean free air CO2 enrichment facility from 2002 to 2006. The model was applied to simulate the possible impacts of climate change on soybean yield in the region for the future years of 2080-2100, centred on 2090. The model reproduced the measured soybean growth and yield well under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions. For the period from 2081 to 2100, soybean yield was projected to decrease due to elevated temperature but to increase due to elevated precipitation and CO2 concentration, achieving counterbalance. The adverse impacts of the warming conditions on soybean yield can be mitigated by late planting within an optimum planting range (day of year 145 to 152) as a management option, as well as by controlling genetic responses to thermal days in the reproductive stage.

  13. Proceedings of the global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book discusses global climate change which is a certainty. The Earth's climate has never remained static for long and the prospect for human-accelerated climate change in the near future appears likely. Freshwater systems are intimately connected to climate in several ways. They may influence, or even drive, global atmospheric processes affecting climate (e.g., biogenic gas emissions from freshwater wetlands). They may be sensitive early indicators of climate change because they integrate the atmospheric and terrestrial events occurring in their catchments. And, of course, they will be affected by climate change. Freshwater hydrological processes, freshwater resources, and freshwater ecosystems have historically responded to climatic shifts and we fully expect that they will continue to do so. Climate-induced changes may include altered water temperatures, runoff, nutrient flux, discharge, flow regime, lake and aquifer levels, water quality, ice cover, suspended load, primary and secondary production, trophic dynamics, organism ranges, and migration patterns.

  14. Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species.

    PubMed

    Moran, Emily V; Alexander, Jake M

    2014-05-01

    Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research. PMID:24612028

  15. The U.S. Global Change Research Program

    SciTech Connect

    MacCracken, M.C.

    1994-05-04

    The Office of Science and Technology Policy has established the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to help solve problems, to improve economic competitiveness, and to provide stimulus for education. Within the NSTC, the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research is responsible for seven environmental issues, including all research relating to global change. The US Global Change Research Program supports international protocols and conventions relating to ozone, climate, and biodiversity. It contributes to the advancement of knowledge in science, education, and technology transfer by providing scientific understanding for policy. This program supports the mission of federal agencies in the areas of forecasts, regulations, services, etc.

  16. Global changes in marine systems: A social-ecological approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, R. Ian; Barange, Manuel; Ommer, Rosemary E.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents the case for the adoption of a social-ecological approach to marine systems, which recognises the interdependence of biophysical and human social components. It discusses the management and governance challenges that arise when biophysical marine systems and fishing-dependent human communities, considered as interdependent marine social-ecological systems, are stressed by global changes. Drivers of change in marine biophysical systems include processes such as climate variability and change, human processes such as fishing, habitat degradation, and contaminants, and their interactions. Fishing makes marine populations, marine communities, and ecosystems more sensitive to climate forcing. Human communities’ responses to marine ecosystem variability can ameliorate or exacerbate these changes. Drivers of change in fishing-dependent human communities include environmental and resource changes, human social changes relating to demographics, health issues, and shifting societal values, and their interactions at local and global scales. This multi-faceted interdependence means that fisheries management needs to develop approaches which maintain the capacities of both fish and fishing communities, acting as interactive social-ecological systems, to adapt to the impacts of globalization and environmental change. In general, a less-heavily fished marine system managed on an ecosystem basis is likely to provide more stable catches under normal conditions than would a heavily fished system. However, under climate change the whole ecosystem may alter in ways that cannot yet be predicted. Issues of scale are crucial, and fisheries governance needs a concerted effort to contrast and compare multiple local management ‘experiments’, since the exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacities of biophysical and human social marine systems varies immensely. These ‘experiments’ should be conducted in developed and developing nations so as to understand

  17. Persistent Identification of Agents and Objects of Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.; Waple, A.; Zednik, S.

    2012-12-01

    "Global Change" includes climate change, ecological change, land-use changes and host of other interacting complex systems including societal and institutional implications. This vast body of information includes scientific research, data, measurements, models, analyses, assessments, etc. It is produced by a collection of multi-disciplinary researchers and organizations from around the world and demand for this information is increasing from a multitude of different audiences and stakeholders. The identification and organization of the agents and objects of global change information and their inter-relationships and contributions to the whole story of change is critical for conveying the state of knowledge, its complexity as well as syntheses and key messages to researchers, decision makers, and the public. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will organize and present our best understanding of global change, and all the contributing information that leads to that understanding, including the provenance needed to trust and use that information. The first implementation will provide provenance for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA must integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of the USGCRP; analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyze current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. It also assesses information at the regional scale across the Nation. A synthesis report is required not less frequently than every four years and the next

  18. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2015-06-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources, and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present a new synthesis of three field studies combining household surveys, participatory research approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews in Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. The results of our synthesis suggests that survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  19. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2014-12-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present their empirical approach combining household surveys, Participatory Research Approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews through its application in three case studies in Pakistan, Peru and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. In the future, survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  20. Optimisation explains global leaf trait patterns and plant adaptations to global change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewar, R. C.; McMurtrie, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    Measured values of four key leaf traits (leaf area per unit mass, nitrogen concentration, photosynthetic rate and leaf lifespan) co-vary globally according to relationships that hold across all the world’s terrestrial plants. The same leaf traits respond consistently to altered environmental conditions (e.g. light intensity, carbon dioxide concentration and nitrogen supply). Explaining observed global leaf trait patterns and leaf responses to environmental change is a prerequisite to understanding and predicting vegetation responses to global change more generally across a range of time scales. Recently [1] we have shown, using a simple model of plant carbon-nitrogen economy, that all of these leaf trait patterns and responses are consistent with an optimisation hypothesis that cumulative carbon export from leaves over their lifespan is maximised. Various closely-related optimisation hypotheses also explain other plant adaptations to environmental change, such as stomatal responses and altered patterns of growth allocation [2]. Incorporating plant optimisation into large scale vegetation-atmosphere models would ensure they are consistent with global leaf trait relationships, and would improve predictions of vegetation responses to global change. The challenge, both scientific and operational, is to do this consistently over a wide range of time scales. This talk will review our recent work using plant optimisation models [1,2] and highlight the potential of Maximum Entropy Production as a unifying optimisation principle for plant and ecosystem function across different time scales [3]. [1] McMurtrie RE, Dewar RC. 2009. Global variation of leaf traits explained from an hypothesis of optimal plant function. Manuscript in preparation. [2] Dewar RC, Franklin O, Makela A, McMurtrie RE, Valentine HT. 2009. Optimal function explains forest responses to global change. BioScience 59:127-139. [3] Dewar RC. 2009. Maximum entropy production and plants. Submitted to Phil

  1. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  2. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  3. Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

  4. Integrated earth system studies. Joint research efforts of global change

    SciTech Connect

    Rosswall, T.; Ojima, D.S.

    1995-06-01

    The physical, chemical and biological studies which have documented the changes to the Earth system and investigated the critical processes which couple the biosphere and the geosphere have increased our understanding of the natural variation in the Earth`s dynamics and of how human activities have modified these processes. This effort has been fundamental in furthering our understanding of what controls the Earth`s energy budget, global biogeochemistry including atmospheric composition of radiatively active gases and the hydrological cycle. This research has necessitated unprecedented international collaboration among various scientific disciplines and led to the development of major research programs like the World Climate Research Programme, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme. Through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a continuous assessment is carried out and provides the much needed bridge between science and policy making manifested in the development of a Framework Convention of Climate Change. The challenge now facing the global change science community is to maintain the interest in elucidating the functioning of the global system when political interest may move elsewhere. To understand the functioning of the Earth system is a daunting scientific challenge and a necessity for the necessary stewardship of planet Earth.

  5. Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

  6. 77 FR 7128 - Low Enriched Uranium From France: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Changed Circumstances...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-10

    ... Determination and Notice of Countervailing Duty Order: Low Enriched Uranium From France, 67 FR 6689 (February 13..., 77 FR 1059 (January 9, 2012) (CCR Initiation Notice). DATES: Effective Date: February 10, 2012. FOR... International Trade Administration Low Enriched Uranium From France: Preliminary Results of Antidumping...

  7. Volunteering for Job Enrichment: Reaction to Job Characteristics or to Change?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giles, William F.

    1977-01-01

    Employee reactions to the opportunity to participate in a job enrichment program were examined in relation to higher-order need satisfaction levels. It was found that employees whose higher-order needs were less satisfied were more likely to volunteer for job enrichment. (Author)

  8. 77 FR 19642 - Low Enriched Uranium From France: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Changed Circumstances Review

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-02

    ... Uranium From France, 67 FR 6680 (February 13, 2002). As for evaluating AREVA's request, the Department... Circumstances Review, 77 FR 7128 (February 10, 2012) (Preliminary Results). DATES: Effective Date: April 2, 2012... product covered by the order is all low enriched uranium (LEU). LEU is enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF...

  9. Interactive Sectoring and Animation of Global Change Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Paul J.; Guillory, Anthony; Atkinson, R. J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    1999-01-01

    In order to analyze and share results of global change climate data sets, scientists require a venue in which to exchange their results. The perfect medium for these collaborative efforts is the world wide web. Intuitive and efficient user interfaces, and background processes were developed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center to interactively view weather satellite, radar, global temperature anomaly, and model output data using the world wide web. These tools combine scripts, Java, and C code, which allows the end user to easily interact with data, to create high resolution sector images, and sectored animation sequences. This paper examines the architecture and interfaces which were designed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center and how they are used for collaborative research.

  10. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  11. Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

    1983-01-01

    A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

  12. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    PubMed

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed. PMID:26112127

  13. Environmental variation and population responses to global change.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Callum R; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-07-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability. PMID:25900148

  14. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world. PMID:22691199

  15. Implications for human health of global ecological changes.

    PubMed

    Last, J; Guidotti, T L

    Comparatively little attention has been given to the health implications of global ecological changes on human health, with the exception of concern over ozone depletion leading to an increased frequency of ultraviolet irradiation-induced skin cancer and cataracts. The implications for human health of five large-scale ecological disruptions were explored: climate change (greenhouse effect), ozone depletion, acid precipitation, transregional pollution, and demographic changes. Limitations of presently available data and the uncertainty of current interpretations of apparent trend is emphasized. Rigorous assessment of the effects of these changes and the response required from public health professionals is needed. This overview provides a point of departure. PMID:2132883

  16. Climate Change. A Global Threat to Cardiopulmonary Health

    PubMed Central

    Thurston, George D.; Balmes, John R.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2014-01-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  17. Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tieszen, Larry L.

    2007-01-01

    The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

  18. Global Change and the Terrestrial Biosphere (449th Brookhaven Lecture)

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, Alistair

    2009-04-22

    Since the Industrial Revolution, the increased use of fossil fuels has resulted in a dramatic and unprecedented rise in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Most scientists agree that increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have raised Earth's temperature and, without a reduction in emissions, will continue to do so. Terrestrial ecosystems sustain life on Earth through the production of food, fuel, fiber, clean air, and naturally purified water. But how will agriculture and ecosystems be affected by global change? Rogers will describe the impact of projected climate change on the terrestrial biosphere and explain why plants are not just passive respondents to global change, but play an important role in determining the rate of change.

  19. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  20. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  1. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  2. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    PubMed

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  3. The Role of Lidars in Global Change Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    1992-01-01

    Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological, and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land, and marine terrestrial living organisms. An important aspect of Earth System Science studies in the future is the need to observe simultaneously the physical, chemical, biological, and dynamical processes involved in highly coupled phenomena such as those mentioned. Lidars operating from the surface, aircraft, and satellites provide a powerful observational technique to study the processes and observe trends important to global change. Lidar observations have already played important roles in helping understand processes controlling stratospheric ozone and aerosols, tropospheric clouds, water vapor, ozone, gaseous pollutants, and aerosols, and winds and temperatures throughout the atmosphere. In this paper the author reviews the science of global change and highlights the potential roles for lidar in studying the Earth system.

  4. Guiding Science and Policy Through the Global Climate Change Debate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silson, J.; Bullock, M. A.; Frodeman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    Facing the possibility of global climate change, policy makers are forced to make decisions about the research and application of science and technology to mitigate both the causes and effects of an evolving global climate. In the past, when deciding what kinds of research to fund, policy makers have relied on the criteria of feasibility and possible effectiveness in choosing areas to support. However, given both the complexity of the climate and its sensitivity to human decisions, future policy makers will need to develop a variety of criteria for choosing which subjects are worth pursuing. One issue that policy makers are likely to consider is the restriction of some areas of research based on the possible dangers that they may entail. This talk considers the question of whether and how policy makers should make such decisions within the context of global climate change.

  5. Global Environmental Change: Modifying Human Contributions Through Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Lynne M.

    1998-12-01

    The 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1996) Science report concludes that evidence now available "points toward a discernible human influence on global climate" (p. 439). Reductions in emissions will require changes in human behavior. This study assessed whether gains in global environmental change knowledge would lead to changes in human behaviors that could be deemed environmentally responsible. The study assessed the impact on participant behavior of a two-and-one-half day National Informal Educators Workshop and Videoconference held November 14-16, 1994. The workshops were located in seven down-link sites around the continental U.S. and Hawaii. The program utilized a variety of pedagogical techniques during five hours of satellite programming with national expertise on global change topics (natural variability, greenhouse effect, ozone depletion, ecosystem response, and population and resource distribution) and applications of that information with local experts in regional workshops. Participants implemented many personal and professional behavior changes after participation in this program. Six behavior change scales were created from assessment of survey responses (four coefficient alphas were above .7, one was .68, and one was .58). Personal behavior changes grouped into three categories: Use of Fewer Resources (acts of everyday life generally under volitional control), Purchasing Choices/Options (less frequent acts, not under total volitional control, with significant environmental effect over the lifetime of the decision, e.g., an automobile) and Increased Awareness and Discussion (indicating changes in "habits of mind"). The professional behavior changes also grouped into three categories: Curriculum Development (developing/revising curricula including new knowledge); Networking (with colleagues from the program); and Office Procedures (reflecting environmentally responsible behavior). The statistically significant behavior changes

  6. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  7. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  8. Attribution of Global Precipitation Change over the Past 1000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Wang, B.; Yim, S.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation is essential to human life and sustainable civilization. Attribution of climate change of global precipitation is far more challenge than attributing temperature change. So far little has been known about the global precipitation change in the past. Using millennial simulations with a coupled climate model (ECHO-G), here we show that the global precipitation over the past millennium exhibits three major modes of variability. The largest portion of variability is associated with an internal mode which fluctuates irregularly and intermittently on multi-decadal time scale. More importantly, two salient forced modes that display distinct dynamic structures and origins are found, which together account for more variances than the internal mode. The first dominates the preanthropogenic change (pre-1850 AD) and is associated with solar-volcanic radiative variations. This natural forced mode shows a bicentennial oscillation superposed on a contrast between Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). The enhanced (suppressed) precipitation during MWP (LIA) is coupled with a La Nina (El Nino) type global warming pattern. The second forced mode closely follows variation of greenhouse gas concentration and concentrates its variance in the industrial era (post-1850 AD). This anthropogenic mode is characterized by enhanced precipitation in western Pacific coupled with a central Pacific warming. The post-1850 trend in precipitation can be faithfully reconstructed by the two forced modes.

  9. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ISSUES IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mounting evidence from both instrumental and proxy records shows global climate continues to change. nalysis of near-surface temperatures over land and oceans during the past 130 years shows marked warming during the first half of this century with relatively steady temperatures ...

  10. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  11. "Surfing Global Change": How Didactic Visions Can Be Implemented

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamer, Gilbert

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Aims to examine a negotiation-oriented and partly web-based game "Surfing Global Change" (SGC) invented by the author based on didactics of self-managed learning and successfully implemented in WebCT. Design/methodology/approach: Along three historic generations of web-based teaching (WBT), the key functionalities of any platform…

  12. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  13. AIR QUALITY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (PHASE 1)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Predicted changes in the global climate over the coming decades could alter weather patterns and, thus, impact land use, source emissions, and tropospheric air quality. The United States has a series of standards for criteria air pollutants and other air pollutants in place to s...

  14. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  15. The Future of Global Change: A Challenge to Librarians.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisenbeis, Kathleen M.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the evolving Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS) and the need for librarians and information scientists to become part of the user-feedback process to make the GCDIS effective, both now and in the future when public access through the Internet will be possible. (LRW)

  16. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  17. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Ilona M.; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim; Feulner, Georg; Köhler, Claudia; Nocke, Thomas; Blok, Anders; Gröber, Albert; Selchow, Sabine; Tyfield, David; Volkmer, Ingrid; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Beck, Ulrich

    2015-06-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing.

  18. Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

  19. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  20. Global and gene specific DNA methylation changes during zebrafish development

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    DNA methylation is dynamic through the life of an organism. In this study, we measured the global and gene specific DNA methylation changes in zebrafish at different developmental stages. We found that the methylation percentage of cytosines was 11.75 ± 0.96% in 3.3 hour post fertilization (hpf) zeb...

  1. Morphological and cellular changes within embryonic striatal grafts associated with enriched environment and involuntary exercise.

    PubMed

    Döbrössy, Máté D; Dunnett, Stephen B

    2006-12-01

    Environmental enrichment (EE) and exercise have been implicated in influencing behaviour and altering neuronal processes associated with cellular morphology in both 'normal' and injured states of the CNS. Using a rodent model of Huntington's disease, we investigated whether prolonged EE or involuntary exercise can induce morphological and cellular changes within embryonic striatal transplants. Adult rats were trained on the Staircase test--requiring fine motor control to reach and collect reward pellets--prior to being lesioned unilaterally in the dorsal neostriatum with quinolinic acid. The lesioned animals received E15 whole ganglionic eminence cell suspension grafts followed by housing in EE or standard cages. Half of the animals in standard cages received daily forced exercise on a treadmill. The grafted animals showed significant functional recovery on both the Staircase test and in drug-induced rotation. Neither the housing conditions nor the training had an impact on the behaviour, with the exception of the treadmill reducing the ipsilateral drug-induced rotation observed amongst the lesioned animals. However, the animals housed in the EE had significantly increased striatal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels, and graft neurons in these animals exhibited both greater spine densities and larger cell volumes. Animals on forced exercise regime had reduced BDNF levels and grafted cells with sparser spines. The study suggests that the context of the animal can affect the plasticity of transplanted cells. Appropriately exploiting the underlying, and yet unknown, mechanisms could lead the way to improved anatomical and potentially functional integration of the graft. PMID:17156383

  2. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. PMID:26301476

  3. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D; Marti, Eugenia

    2016-07-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream-terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream-riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream-terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  4. Conceptual design of a measurement network of the global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hari, P.; Petäjä, T.; Bäck, J.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lappalainen, H. K.; Vihma, T.; Laurila, T.; Viisanen, Y.; Vesala, T.; Kulmala, M.

    2016-01-01

    The global environment is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic emissions and actions. Such activities modify aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to regional and global climate change and affecting, e.g., food and fresh-water security, sustainable use of natural resources and even demography. Here we present a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network that can provide tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. The philosophy behind the conceptual design relies on physical conservation laws of mass, energy and momentum, as well as on concentration gradients that act as driving forces for the atmosphere-biosphere exchange. The network is composed of standard, flux and/or advanced and flagship stations, each of which having specific and identified tasks. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that have to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network as a whole is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity. The most comprehensive observations are envisioned to occur in flagship stations, with which the process-level understanding can be expanded to continental and global scales together with advanced data analysis, Earth system modelling and satellite remote sensing. The denser network of the flux and standard stations allows application and up-scaling of the results obtained from flagship stations to the global level.

  5. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  6. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  7. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  8. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  9. Global change and the coastline: assessment and mitigation planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopley, David

    Only a small proportion of funding for global change research programs has been directed at planning for sea level rise through mitigation projects. Although recent estimates of the rise by 2050 (25-50 cm) are reduced compared to previous predictions and are now within the ranges achieved in the geological past, considerable changes will still take place in the coastal zone, especially when greater and more storm surge incidence and rainfall intensity factors are considered. Adjustments available include: no action; coastal defence based on present rates of sea level rise; retreat with planning and social engineering; protection; and abatement of global change processes. Actual decisions for specific reactions will vary according to risk and impact assessment. Production of Coastal Vulnerability Indices (CVI) using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is advocated at several scales for the identification of regional response planning strategies.

  10. Chemistry of the atmosphere: Its impact on global change

    SciTech Connect

    Birks, J.W.; Calvert, J.G.; Sievers, R.E.

    1993-12-31

    This book is a summary of the plenary lectures of the CHEMRAWN VII Conference held in Baltimore, Maryland, 2-7 December 1991. The book draws together some interesting perspectives relating to global change from the atmospheric chemistry community from more of a chemist`s point of view than a meteorologist`s. In fact, Chemical Research Applied to World Needs (CHEMRAWN) illustrates how the international atmospheric chemistry community (the meeting was cosponsored by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry and the American Chemical Society) has traditionally put forth a considerable effort to understand the global environmental impact of dumping chemicals into the atmosphere. The primary benefit of this book is the concise summary of the research issues confronting the atmospheric science community regarding global change. Being a summary of plenary lectures, the technical depth of the papers is not great. Therefore the book offers a good presentation of material to the nonspecialist who seeks to understand the issues around which the global change research community has focused.

  11. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  12. A global optimization paradigm based on change of measures.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, Saikat; Roy, Debasish; Vasu, Ram Mohan

    2015-07-01

    A global optimization framework, COMBEO (Change Of Measure Based Evolutionary Optimization), is proposed. An important aspect in the development is a set of derivative-free additive directional terms, obtainable through a change of measures en route to the imposition of any stipulated conditions aimed at driving the realized design variables (particles) to the global optimum. The generalized setting offered by the new approach also enables several basic ideas, used with other global search methods such as the particle swarm or the differential evolution, to be rationally incorporated in the proposed set-up via a change of measures. The global search may be further aided by imparting to the directional update terms additional layers of random perturbations such as 'scrambling' and 'selection'. Depending on the precise choice of the optimality conditions and the extent of random perturbation, the search can be readily rendered either greedy or more exploratory. As numerically demonstrated, the new proposal appears to provide for a more rational, more accurate and, in some cases, a faster alternative to many available evolutionary optimization schemes. PMID:26587268

  13. Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

  14. A global optimization paradigm based on change of measures

    PubMed Central

    Sarkar, Saikat; Roy, Debasish; Vasu, Ram Mohan

    2015-01-01

    A global optimization framework, COMBEO (Change Of Measure Based Evolutionary Optimization), is proposed. An important aspect in the development is a set of derivative-free additive directional terms, obtainable through a change of measures en route to the imposition of any stipulated conditions aimed at driving the realized design variables (particles) to the global optimum. The generalized setting offered by the new approach also enables several basic ideas, used with other global search methods such as the particle swarm or the differential evolution, to be rationally incorporated in the proposed set-up via a change of measures. The global search may be further aided by imparting to the directional update terms additional layers of random perturbations such as ‘scrambling’ and ‘selection’. Depending on the precise choice of the optimality conditions and the extent of random perturbation, the search can be readily rendered either greedy or more exploratory. As numerically demonstrated, the new proposal appears to provide for a more rational, more accurate and, in some cases, a faster alternative to many available evolutionary optimization schemes. PMID:26587268

  15. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.; Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  16. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  17. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Longstreth, J

    1991-01-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed. PMID:1820256

  18. Global change and carrying capacity: Implications for life on Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Daily, Gretchen C.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Matson, Pamela; Vitousek, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Determining the long-term number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its ability to support people in the future, i.e., the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an exceedingly complex problem. About all that is known for certain is that, with present and foreseeable technologies, the human population has already exceeded the capacity. The reduction in carrying capacity that can be expected to result from direct human impacts on resources and the environment and from our indirect impacts of the climate system is discussed. Global warming and modeling global change and food security are also discussed with respect to carrying capacity.

  19. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-11-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to

  20. Global dilemmas and the plausibility of whole-system change

    SciTech Connect

    Harman, W.W.

    1995-05-01

    Approaching the global dilemmas of our time with whole-system thinking implies that the much-talked-about problems of environmental degradation, deforestation, desertification, man-made climate change, chronic hunger and poverty, etc. are not so much problems as symptoms of a deeper-level condition that must be dealt with. This has to do with the basic incompatibility between widely proclaimed goals and underlying system assumptions. Pressures toward whole-system change are increasing in intensity. The critical issue is whether that change can be smooth and nondisruptive, or whether it will involve some disintegration of present structures. Constructive interventions are discussed. 1 tab.

  1. Effect of changes in DOE pricing policies for enrichment and reprocessing on research reactor fuel cycle costs

    SciTech Connect

    Matos, J.E.; Freese, K.E.

    1986-11-03

    Fuel cycle costs with HEU and LEU fuels for the IAEA generic 10 MW reactor are updated to reflect the change in DOE pricing policy for enrichment services as of October 1985 and the published charges for LEU reprocessing services as of February 1986. The net effects are essentially no change in HEU fuel cycle costs and a reduction of about 8 to 10% in the fuel cycle costs for LEU silicide fuel.

  2. Middle School Students' Conceptual Change in Global Climate Change: Using Argumentation to Foster Knowledge Construction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golden, Barry W.

    2011-01-01

    This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the "framework theory" of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not simply correct…

  3. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

  4. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  5. Agricultural ecosystem effects on trace gases and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change is an issue that has been thrust to the forefront of scientific, political, and general community interest. In the span of this human generation, the earth's climate is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of recorded history. Some of the changes will result from natural processes, beyond human control, but much of this change is subject to anthropogenic influence arising from processes that are only beginning to be understood. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric radiatively active trace gases are being inadvertently affected by fossil fuel combustion; but other activities of industry, agriculture, forestry, changing land-use practices, waste disposal, and transportation also affect the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The measured and projected changes of the atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active trace gases have been modeled and estimated to predict changes in the global climate. Accuracy and reliability of these predictions are the subject of considerable debate among scientists and other concerned individuals, groups, and governmental agencies throughout the world. The objective of this book is to provide a review of current knowledge on the measurement of radiatively active trace gases in agricultural ecosystems and the effect of agriculture on the atmospheric concentrations of these gases. This book is compiled from written papers presented at a symposium entitled, Agroecosystem Effects on Radiatively Important Trace Gases and Global Climate Change, held at the American Society of Agronomy Meetings in Denver, CO, 27 Oct.-1 Nov. 1991. Fourteen chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  6. Climate change: a catalyst for global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms.

    PubMed

    Paerl, Hans W; Huisman, Jef

    2009-02-01

    Cyanobacteria are the Earth's oldest known oxygen-evolving photosynthetic microorganisms, and they have had major impacts on shaping our current atmosphere and biosphere. Their long evolutionary history has enabled cyanobacteria to develop survival strategies and persist as important primary producers during numerous geochemical and climatic changes that have taken place on Earth during the past 3.5 billion years. Today, some cyanobacterial species form massive surface growths or 'blooms' that produce toxins, cause oxygen depletion and alter food webs, posing a major threat to drinking and irrigation water supplies, fishing and recreational use of surface waters worldwide. These harmful cyanobacteria can take advantage of anthropogenically induced nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication), and hydrologic modifications (water withdrawal, reservoir construction). Here, we review recent studies revealing that regional and global climatic change may benefit various species of harmful cyanobacteria by increasing their growth rates, dominance, persistence, geographic distributions and activity. Future climatic change scenarios predict rising temperatures, enhanced vertical stratification of aquatic ecosystems, and alterations in seasonal and interannual weather patterns (including droughts, storms, floods); these changes all favour harmful cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic waters. Therefore, current mitigation and water management strategies, which are largely based on nutrient input and hydrologic controls, must also accommodate the environmental effects of global warming. PMID:23765717

  7. Global Change and Our Common Future: Papers from a Forum. Papers from the Committee on Global Change, National Research Council, 1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeFries, Ruth S., Ed.; Malone, Thomas F., Ed.

    This volume of papers includes 21 of the 38 presentations given at the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future. The objectives of the forum were threefold: (1) to present to the public a balanced and authoritative view of the wide range of global change issues, including the science of the earth system, the impacts of global change on…

  8. EVALUATION OF FLOWSHEET CHANGES FOR THE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM BLENDDOWN PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    Crowder, M.; Rudisill, T.; Laurinat, J.; Mickalonis, J.

    2007-10-22

    H Canyon is considering a flowsheet change for Plutonium (Pu) Contaminated Scrap (PuCS) material. The proposed change is to route dissolved PuCS material directly to a uranium (U) storage tank. As a result, the PuCS solution will bypass Head End and First U Cycle, and will be purified by solvent extraction in Second U Cycle. The PuCS solution contains appreciable amounts of boron (B) and fluoride (F{sup -}), which are currently at trace levels in the U storage tank. Though unlikely, if the B concentration in the U storage tank were to reach 1.8 g B/g U, the entire contents of the U storage tank would likely require a second pass through Second U Cycle to provide sufficient decontamination to meet the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Blend Grade Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) specification for B, which is 30 {micro}g/g U. In addition, Second U Cycle is expected to provide sufficient decontamination of F{sup -} and Pu regardless of the amount of PuCS solution sent to the storage tank. Though aluminum (Al) is not present in the PuCS solution, B can be credited as a complexant of F{sup -}. Both stability constants from the literature and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) corrosion studies were documented to demonstrate that B complexation of F{sup -} in nitric acid solutions is sufficient to prevent excessive corrosion. Though B and Al complex F{sup -} to a similar degree, neither completely eliminates the presence of free F{sup -} in solution. Therefore, a limited amount of corrosion is expected even with complexed F{sup -} solutions. Tanks maintained at ambient temperature are not expected to experience significant corrosion. However, the Low Activity Waste (LAW) evaporators may be subjected to a corrosion rate of about 25 mils per year (mpy) as they reach their highest F{sup -} concentrations. The feed adjustment evaporator would only be subjected to the corrosion rate of about 25 mpy in the latter stages of the PuCS campaign. An issue that must be addressed

  9. The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change tends to affect the irrigation water requirement of current irrigated agricultural land, and also changes the water availability for current rain-fed land by the end of this century. We use the most up-to-date climatic and crop datasets (e.g., global irrigated/rain-fed crop areas and grid level crop growing calendar (Portmann, Siebert and Döll, 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24)) to evaluate the requirements of currently irrigated land and the water deficit for rain-fed land for all major crops under current and projected climate. Six general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, are assembled using two methods, the Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), to deal with the GCM regional variability. It is found that the global irrigation requirement and the water deficit are both going to increase significantly under all scenarios, particularly under the A1B emission scenario. For example, the projected irrigation requirement is expected to increase by about 2500 million m3 for wheat, 3200 million m3 for maize and another 3300 million m3 for rice. At the same time, the water deficit for current rain-fed cropland will be widened by around 3000, 4000, 2100 million m3 for wheat, maize and rice respectively. Regional analysis is conducted for Africa, China, Europe, India, South America and the United States. It is found that the U.S. may expect the greatest rise in irrigation requirements for wheat and maize, while the South America may suffer the greatest increase for rice. In addition, Africa and the U.S. may face a larger water deficit for both wheat and maize on rain-fed land, and South America just for rice. In summary, climate change is likely to bring severe challenges for irrigation systems and make global water shortage even worse by the end of this century. These pressures will call for extensive adaptation measures. The change in crop water requirements and availability

  10. Addressing Pre-service Teachers Ideas About Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutz, R. V.; Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Lindgren, J.; Edwards, A.; Soden, B.

    2011-12-01

    Despite the scientific consensus about global climate change (GCC) and the potential risk, the media often portrays the science as controversial and as a debate (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011). According to a recent report, young adults are divided on the issue of global warming (Feldman, Nisbet, Leiserowitz, & Maibach, 2010). Understanding both the science and the nature of this issue is especially important for future teachers. Also, given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. This study examines undergraduate science methods students' views of GCC, the relationship between students' views and their knowledge of GCC, and the impact of the course instructional approach. Students' views of GCC were assessed using the Views of Global Climate Change instrument (VGCC), a survey developed by the authors of this study (Lambert et al., 2010). The survey was developed to specifically measure students' views on: 1) their knowledge of GCC, 2) causes of GCC, 3) evidence (or indicators) of GCC, 4) impacts of GCC, 5) actions or solutions, 6) influence of politics on the issue of GCC, 7) scientific consensus, 8) trust of sources of information, and 9) concern about GCC. The Knowledge of Global Climate Change instrument (KGCC) (Lambert, Bleicher, & Lindgren, 2011) was employed to measure students' understanding of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and consequences of GCC. Pre-surveys indicated that 49% of the students felt that human activity was the main cause of climate change. At the conclusion of the course, 72% of the students thought that humans were causing climate change, and students' overall views about global warming significantly shifted toward being more concerned. Students' knowledge of the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes, and impacts also increased significantly

  11. The economics of long-term global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  12. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    SciTech Connect

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  13. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    PubMed

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions. PMID:12769457

  14. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  15. Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia

    2009-01-01

    Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

  16. GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

  17. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  18. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.

    PubMed

    Schröter, Dagmar; Cramer, Wolfgang; Leemans, Rik; Prentice, I Colin; Araújo, Miguel B; Arnell, Nigel W; Bondeau, Alberte; Bugmann, Harald; Carter, Timothy R; Gracia, Carlos A; de la Vega-Leinert, Anne C; Erhard, Markus; Ewert, Frank; Glendining, Margaret; House, Joanna I; Kankaanpää, Susanna; Klein, Richard J T; Lavorel, Sandra; Lindner, Marcus; Metzger, Marc J; Meyer, Jeannette; Mitchell, Timothy D; Reginster, Isabelle; Rounsevell, Mark; Sabaté, Santi; Sitch, Stephen; Smith, Ben; Smith, Jo; Smith, Pete; Sykes, Martin T; Thonicke, Kirsten; Thuiller, Wilfried; Tuck, Gill; Zaehle, Sönke; Zierl, Bärbel

    2005-11-25

    Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions. PMID:16254151

  19. Coping with global environmental change -- role of science and democracy.

    PubMed

    Menon, M G

    The world's population increased form about 3 billion in 1960 to 4 billion in 1974, to 5 billion in 1987, and it is projected to grow to 6 billion by 1991 and to 8 billion by 1992. Finite, nonrenewable resources have to satisfy the increased need for sustenance of this population excess in a sustainable economic development mold. Human activity has upset natural processes with negative environmental effects: Minamata disease in Japan caused by heavy metal pollution, global deforestation, and acid rain. The 1972 Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm dealt with industrial pollution. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) was established subsequently. The theory of global warming caused by emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, and halogens as predicted by a Swedish scientist decades ago is accumulating a body of evidence. The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions attempt to explore the Earth's physical, chemical, and biological processes to predict global environmental changes. Success mandates data availability. Paleoclimatic evidence indicates previous cataclysms caused by climate change, thus agriculture could be affected massively by global warming. Improved scientific analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and crop simulation models for major agricultural areas are needed. The North-South dialogue in UN forums has been acrimonious without much success, although international cooperation has been fruitful with the adoption of the Montreal Protocol on phasing out ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. Such cooperation is needed on energy consumption and sources. PMID:12285904

  20. Science requirements for a global change technology architecture trade study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suttles, John T.; Harrison, Edwin F.; Gibson, Gary G.; Campbell, Thomas G.

    1991-01-01

    Science requirements for a global change technology initiative (GCTI) Architecture Trade Study were established by reviewing and synthesizing results from recent studies. A scientific rationale was adopted and used to identify a comprehensive set of measureables and their priorities. Spatial and temporal requirements for a number of measurement parameters were evaluated based on results from several working group studies. Science requirements were defined using these study results in conjunction with the guidelines for investigating global changes over a time scale of decades to centuries. Requirements are given separately for global studies and regional process studies. For global studies, temporal requirements are for sampling every 1 to 12 hours for atmospheric and radiation parameters and 1 day or more for most earth surface measurements. Therefore, the atmospheric measureables provide the most critical drivers for temporal sampling. Spatial sampling requirements vary from 1 km for land and ocean surface characteristics to 50 km for some atmospheric parameters. Thus, the land and ocean surface parameters have the more significant spatial variations and provide the most challenging spatial sampling requirements.

  1. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  2. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world. PMID:17107430

  3. Productivity of aquatic primary producers under global climate change.

    PubMed

    Häder, Donat-P; Villafañe, Virginia E; Helbling, E Walter

    2014-10-01

    The productivity of aquatic primary producers depends on a number of biotic and abiotic factors, such as pH, CO2 concentration, temperature, nutrient availability, solar UV and PAR irradiances, mixing frequency as well as herbivore pressure and the presence of viruses, among others. The effects of these factors, within a climate change context, may be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. Since some of them, e.g. solar radiation and temperature, vary along a latitudinal gradient, this perspective about the effects of global climate change on primary producers will consider ecosystems individually, separated into polar (Arctic and Antarctic), temperate and tropical waters. As coastal waters are characterized by lower light penetration and higher DOM and nutrient concentrations, they are considered in a separate section. Freshwater systems are also governed by different conditions and therefore also treated in their own section. Overall, we show that although there are general common trends of changes in variables associated with global change (e.g. the impact of UVR on photosynthesis tends to decrease with increasing temperature and nutrient input), the responses of aquatic primary producers have great variability in the different ecosystems across latitudes. This is mainly due to direct or indirect effects associated with physico-chemical changes that occur within water bodies. Therefore we stress the need for regional predictions on the responses of primary producers to climate change as it is not warranted to extrapolate from one system to another. PMID:25191675

  4. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Plant diversity drives soil microbial biomass carbon in grasslands irrespective of global environmental change factors.

    PubMed

    Thakur, Madhav Prakash; Milcu, Alexandru; Manning, Pete; Niklaus, Pascal A; Roscher, Christiane; Power, Sally; Reich, Peter B; Scheu, Stefan; Tilman, David; Ai, Fuxun; Guo, Hongyan; Ji, Rong; Pierce, Sarah; Ramirez, Nathaly Guerrero; Richter, Annabell Nicola; Steinauer, Katja; Strecker, Tanja; Vogel, Anja; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2015-11-01

    Soil microbial biomass is a key determinant of carbon dynamics in the soil. Several studies have shown that soil microbial biomass significantly increases with plant species diversity, but it remains unclear whether plant species diversity can also stabilize soil microbial biomass in a changing environment. This question is particularly relevant as many global environmental change (GEC) factors, such as drought and nutrient enrichment, have been shown to reduce soil microbial biomass. Experiments with orthogonal manipulations of plant diversity and GEC factors can provide insights whether plant diversity can attenuate such detrimental effects on soil microbial biomass. Here, we present the analysis of 12 different studies with 14 unique orthogonal plant diversity × GEC manipulations in grasslands, where plant diversity and at least one GEC factor (elevated CO2 , nutrient enrichment, drought, earthworm presence, or warming) were manipulated. Our results show that higher plant diversity significantly enhances soil microbial biomass with the strongest effects in long-term field experiments. In contrast, GEC factors had inconsistent effects with only drought having a significant negative effect. Importantly, we report consistent non-significant effects for all 14 interactions between plant diversity and GEC factors, which indicates a limited potential of plant diversity to attenuate the effects of GEC factors on soil microbial biomass. We highlight that plant diversity is a major determinant of soil microbial biomass in experimental grasslands that can influence soil carbon dynamics irrespective of GEC. PMID:26118993

  6. Global change information support: A north-south coalition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blados, Walter R.; Cotter, Gladys A.

    1993-01-01

    On a daily basis we become more aware that our planet, earth, exists in a delicate balance; we, its inhabitants, must be informed caretakers. Global change communities have emerged around the globe to address this multidisciplinary subject. Information systems that integrate text, bibliographic, numeric and visual data are needed to support these global change communities. No one information center can hope to collect all the relevant data. Rather, we must form a coalition, North and South, to collect and provide access to disparate, multidisciplinary sources of information, and to develop standardized tools for documenting and manipulating this data and information. International resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us towards this goal. This paper looks at emerging information technologies that can be utilized to build such a system, and outlines some cooperative North/South strategies.

  7. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  8. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change. PMID:26912702

  9. Incorporating global climate change exercises into historical geology courses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, C. M.; Baldwin, K.

    2011-12-01

    Historical geology courses examine the patterns of the Earth's history including both Earth resources and climate change. Though a natural fit for these courses, there is a dearth of information and exercises on global climate change and sustainability integrated within existing Historical Geology laboratory and lecture texts; paradoxically, there is a wealth of educational material on climate change. While educational resources on global climate change are made available to educators, how to incorporate those resources into an existing historical geology curriculum is not explicit. Issues of sustainability, such as global climate change, allows the course to engage students (both science and non-science majors) into topics that are relevant to today's society, while examining the Earth's past history for support of their understanding of Earth's cycles. This often serves as a point of disconnect for students - how do deep time concepts taught in the course relate to their day to day life? To bridge this gap, we have compiled inquiry based lab exercises allowing student ownership of sustainability concepts that lecture alone does not provide. We will present initial assessment of student learning through a formative assessment survey to determine their current content knowledge as well as their beliefs about sustainability and climate change. This survey will also examine their preconceptions about how historical geology connects with modern day issues of sustainability. We will compare these survey results with a summative assessment designed to mirror the pre-survey questions and discuss the implications of the study. We will expand the course exercises and assessment to an online course offered in the spring.

  10. Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

    2014-12-01

    Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

  11. Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

  12. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  13. Global changes: Impacts on habitability. A scientific basis for assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goody, R.

    1982-01-01

    The feasibility of a major NASA research initiative to document, to understand, and if possible, to predict long-term (5 to 50 years) global changes that can affect the habitability of the Earth is addressed. The major factor contributing to change is human activity. The program discussed involves studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land, the cryosphere, and the biosphere. On decadal time scales, these regimes and the cycles of physical and chemical entities through them are coupled into a single interlocking system. Some part of this system can be studied in a straightforward manner (the atmosphere) and some with great difficulty (the biosphere).

  14. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced

  15. Global and domain-specific changes in cognition throughout adulthood.

    PubMed

    Tucker-Drob, Elliot M

    2011-03-01

    Normative adult age-related decrements are well documented for many diverse forms of effortful cognitive processing. However, it is currently unclear whether each of these decrements reflects a distinct and independent developmental phenomenon, or, in part, a more global phenomenon. A number of studies have recently been published that show moderate to large magnitudes of positive relations among individual differences in rates of changes in different cognitive variables during adulthood. This suggests that a small number of common dimensions or even a single common dimension may underlie substantial proportions of individual differences in aging-related cognitive declines. This possibility was directly examined using data from 1,281 adults 18-95 years of age who were followed longitudinally over up to 7 years on 12 different measures of effortful processing. Multivariate growth curve models were applied to examine the dimensionality of individual differences in longitudinal changes. Results supported a hierarchical structure of aging-related changes, with an average of 39% of individual differences in change in a given variable attributable to global (domain-general) developmental processes, 33% attributable to domain-specific developmental processes (abstract reasoning, spatial visualization, episodic memory, and processing speed), and 28% attributable to test-specific developmental processes. Although it is often assumed that systematic and pervasive sources of cognitive decline only emerge in later adulthood, domain-general influences on change were apparent for younger (18-49 years), middle aged (50-69 years), and older (70-95 years) adults. PMID:21244145

  16. Fostering Civic Science Literacy with NASA's Global Climate Change Website

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenenbaum, L. F.; Jackson, R.; Greene, W. M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change science is a complicated subject that can be both confusing and intimidating to non-scientists. Nevertheless, fostering public understanding of the science and the evidence for an anthropogenic cause is essential to motivating behavioral change. In response to the need for engaging and accessible materials in the area of climate science, NASA launched the Global Climate Change website http://climate.nasa.gov/ in 2008. The site makes extensive use of interactive media, immersive visualizations, ground-based and remote images, narrated and time lapse videos, time series animations, and real-time scientific data, plus maps and user friendly graphics that make the scientific content both accessible and engaging to the public. NASA's Global Climate Change Website has become a top search result for "climate change" for all major search engines and has won two consecutive Webby Awards for Best Science Website. The website's interactive and visually exciting style enhances public engagement, scientific curiosity and interest in Earth and climate science across diverse populations, thus promoting broader civic science literacy.

  17. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  18. Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slangen, Aimée. B. A.; Church, John A.; Zhang, Xuebin; Monselesan, Didier

    2014-08-01

    Changes in sea level are driven by a range of natural and anthropogenic forcings. To better understand the response of global mean thermosteric sea level change to these forcings, we compare three observational data sets to experiments of 28 climate models with up to five different forcing scenarios for 1957-2005. We use the preindustrial control runs to determine the internal climate variability. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are required to explain the magnitude of the observed changes, while natural forcing drives most of the externally forced variability. The experiments that include anthropogenic and natural forcings capture the observed increased trend toward the end of the twentieth century best. The observed changes can be explained by scaling the natural-only experiment by 0.70 ± 0.30 and the anthropogenic-only experiment (including opposing forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols) by 1.08 ± 0.13(±2σ).

  19. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  20. Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. PMID:22883209

  1. Including Cities in Projections of Global Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, M.; Best, M.; Betts, R.

    2010-12-01

    The impact of land use change through urbanisation has long been recognised as an important driver of localised climate change, resulting from the thermal and aerodynamic properties of the built environment that impact heat, moisture and momentum exchange at the atmosphere-surface interface. Urban areas contain a majority of the global population, and account for approximately 70% of primary energy demand. Therefore urban areas are focal points of vulnerability and exposure to climate change, but also potentially powerful focal points for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Urban areas occupy only a tiny fraction of the available land surface of the globe, and therefore have generally been ignored in the context of global climate change simulation. Rapid advances in recent decades have lead to the development of numerical urban models suitable for coupling to weather prediction and climate models. While the urban micro-climate and greenhouse gas induced climate change operate over very different space and time-scales we should not assume that their evolution will be independent. In this paper we demonstrate the use of an urban land surface exchange scheme nested in Hadley Centre climate models contributing to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. This has been used to quantify the development of urban heat islands in response to both radiatively forced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions, and local forcing from anthropogenic heat release associated with energy use within the urban environment. Urban citizens will be exposed to the cumulative impacts of urbanisation and climate change trends through the 21st Century, and here we demonstrate that these would be much greater than climate change alone. We also find that those areas of the world expected to undergo large urbanisation over the 21st Century are within climate zones that are among those most sensitive to the nocturnal urban heat island effect.

  2. The impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, D. S.; Tewksbury, J. J.; Deutsch, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    A billion people currently lack reliable access to sufficient food and almost half of the calories feeding these people come from just three crops: rice, maize, wheat. Insect pests are among the largest factors affecting the yield of these three crops, but models assessing the effects of global warming on crops rarely consider changes in insect pest pressure on crop yields. We use well-established relationships between temperature and insect physiology to project climate-driven changes in pest pressure, defined as integrated population metabolism, for the three major crops. By the middle of this century, under most scenarios, insect pest pressure is projected to increase by more than 50% in temperate areas, while increases in tropical regions will be more modest. Yield relationships indicate that the largest increases in insect pest pressure are likely to occur in areas where yield is greatest, suggesting increased strain on global food markets.

  3. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  4. Enriched environment attenuates changes in water-maze performance and BDNF level caused by prenatal alcohol exposure

    PubMed Central

    Tipyasang, Rungpiyada; Kunwittaya, Sarun; Mukda, Sujira; Kotchabhakdi, Nittaya J.; Kotchabhakdi, Naiphinich

    2014-01-01

    Prenatal exposure to alcohol can result in fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), characterized by significant changes in the physiology, structural plasticity of hippocampal function, including long-term deficits in learning and memory. Environmental enrichment has long been known to improve motor and cognitive function levels, causes several neurochemical and morphological alterations in the brain. Therefore, the effects of environmental enrichment on the neurobehavioral and neurotrophic changes in mice exposed prenatally to alcohol were investigated in this study. The pregnant dams were given 25 % ethanol (w/v) or isocaloric sucrose by liquid diet from gestation day 7 to 20. After weaning on postnatal day 28, offspring were exposed to standard cage (CC, CFAS) or enriched living conditions (CE, EFAS) for 8 weeks. Neurobehavioral studies both on hippocampus-dependent spatial learning and place and cue learning strategy, a striatum-dependent test, were measured by the Morris water maze task. Moreover, the reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technique was also used in order to study the expression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) level in both the hippocampus and striatum of mice. Neurobehavioral studies show that animals exposed prenatally to alcohol were impaired as shown in both hippocampal-dependent spatial/place and striatal-dependent response/cue learning tests. Moreover, the levels of BDNF expression both in the hippocampus and striatum of mice were also decreased. Interestingly, environmental enrichment can ameliorate the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure both on the neurobehavioral and neurotrophic levels. These observations indicated that enriched environment attenuated memory impairment of prenatal alcohol exposure both in hippocampal and striatal circuitry. PMID:26417281

  5. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #15: WORKSHOP ON ANCILLARY BENEFITS AND COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Global Change Research Program is co-sponsoring a three-day workshop to examine possible ancillary benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. The goals of the workshop are: (1)to establish a common basis of understanding about the conceptual and empiric...

  6. Daily changes of amino acids in soybean leaflets are modified by C02 enrichment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The effects of CO2 enrichment on plant growth and on nitrogen partitioning were examined using soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr. cv. Clark] leaflets and wheat leaves (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Oxen). Both species were grown from single seeds in matching controlled environment chambers. Continuous amb...

  7. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  8. An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

    2013-09-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor. PMID:24128847

  9. A contemporary decennial global sample of changing agricultural field sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, E.; Roy, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    In the last several hundred years agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) with dramatic cropland expansion and a marked increase in agricultural productivity. The size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLUC. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, diffusion of disease pathogens and pests, and loss or degradation in buffers to nutrient, herbicide and pesticide flows. In this study, globally distributed locations with significant contemporary field size change were selected guided by a global map of agricultural yield and literature review and were selected to be representative of different driving forces of field size change (associated with technological innovation, socio-economic conditions, government policy, historic patterns of land cover land use, and environmental setting). Seasonal Landsat data acquired on a decadal basis (for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were used to extract field boundaries and the temporal changes in field size quantified and their causes discussed.

  10. Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.

    PubMed

    Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

    2014-07-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research. PMID:24769018

  11. Predictions of a Global Climate Change and Cycle on Jupiter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcus, P. S.

    2003-12-01

    We predict that most of Jupiter's large vortices, similar to (but not including) the Great Red Spot, will soon disappear due to vortex mergers. This will cause global temperature changes of ˜10oK. Within a decade, several of Jupiter's westward jet streams (there are 12) will form waves. They will grow, break, roll-up and re-populate Jupiter with new vortices. These dynamics should be visible from earth as the break-up of a circumferential band of clouds into ``spots''. The new vortices will be similar to those that were observed during most of the 20th century. For ˜60 years they will change only slowly, then abruptly bunch together. Shortly afterward, most will disappear by merging with other vortices. The cycle described above will repeat with a ˜70-year time scale, with many of the events detectable from earth or by satellite. The formation of the White Oval ``spots'' in 1939 began the current global climate cycle, and their mergers in 1997--2000 signaled the beginning of its end. Our predictions are based on fundamental vortex dynamics rather than global circulation models.

  12. Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change

    DOE Data Explorer

    Trends Online provides synopses of frequently used time series of global-change data: • historical and modern records (from ice cores and current monitoring stations) of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) • atmospheric concentrations of methane • isotopic measurements (14C et al.) for atmospheric greenhouse gases • estimates of global, regional, and national CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, gas flaring, and the production of cement • global emissions estimates for methane (CH4) • carbon flux from land-cover change • long-term temperature records, whose spatial coverage ranges from individual sites to the entire globe and from the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere • total cloud amount over China • ecosystems (area and carbon content) Data records are presented in multipage formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables; graphs; discussions of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data, and references to literature providing further information. Instructions for citing specific data in Trends Online are provided for each compiled data set. All data appearing in Trends Online are available, on request, on digital media from CDIAC at no cost. [Copied from the Abstract to Trends Online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/abstract.htm

  13. Teaching global and local environmental change through Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mauri, Emanuela Paola; Rossi, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    Human beings perceive the world primarily through their sense of sight. This can explain why the use of images is so important and common in educational materials, in particular for scientific subjects. The development of modern technologies for visualizing the scientific features of the Earth has provided new opportunities for communicating the increasing complexity of science both to the public and in school education. In particular, the use of Earth observation satellites for civil purposes, which started in the 70s, has opened new perspectives in the study of natural phenomena and human impact on the environment; this is particularly relevant for those processes developing on a long term period and on a global scale. Instruments for Remote Sensing increase the power of human sight, giving access to additional information about the physical world, which the human eye could not otherwise perceive. The possibility to observe from a remote perspective significant processes like climate change, ozone depletion, desertification, urban development, makes it possible for observers to better appreciate and experience the complexity of environment. Remote Sensing reveals the impact of human activities on ecosystems: this allows students to understand important concepts like global and local change in much more depth. This poster describes the role and effectiveness of Remote Sensing imagery in scientific education, and its importance towards a better global environmental awareness.

  14. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  15. Irrigation in a changing world: a global systems analysis perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doell, P.

    2003-04-01

    The global issues of water security and food security are closely linked. Sustainable plant production requires a sustained provisioning of water, either in the form of "green" or of "blue" water (as introduced by Malin Falkenmark in 1993). Green water is defined as the fraction of water that is evapotranspirated, i.e. the water supply for all non-irrigated vegetation. Blue water refers to the water flows in groundwater and surface water. It represents the water that can be withdrawn, e.g. for irrigation. In areas without enough green water in the soil to achieve satisfactory crop growth, crops can be irrigated with blue water. The distinction between green and blue water helps to understand the linkages between rainfall, soil, land productivity and water availability for irrigation and other human uses. Today, about 67% of the current global water withdrawals and about 87% of the consumptive water use (withdrawal minus return flow) is for irrigation purposes. Irrigated land comprises less than one-fifth of all cropped area but produces about two-fifth of the world's cereals. Due to the high and reliable productivity of irrigated land, an extension of irrigation appears to be an appropriate strategy to feed the world's growing population However, will there be enough water available for the necessary extension? To assess this question, both water availability and demand must be analyzed. At the global scale, such an assessment is supported by the global model of water resources and use model WaterGAP 2, which, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees, computes both water resources and water use by irrigation, livestock, households, manufacturing and thermal power plants. WaterGAP is applied to derive scenarios that show the impact of climate change as well as demographic, economic and technological changes. The Global Irrigation Model of WaterGAP computes, for example, the impact of climate change on irrigation requirements on net irrigation requirements. This is

  16. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  17. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  18. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  19. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    SciTech Connect

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  20. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    SciTech Connect

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  1. Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mccord, G. C.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

  2. Orbit optimization of Chang'E-2 by global adjustment using images of the moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Wei; Liu, Jianjun; Ren, Xin; Wang, Fenfei; Wang, Wenrui; Li, Chunlai

    2015-12-01

    The orbit accuracy of the Chang'E-2 (CE-2) lunar probe is one of the most critical factors for a seamless mosaic of the global lunar topographic map. During the production of the CE-2 global lunar topographic map, a maximum deviation of kilometers magnitude existed in the horizontal direction of homologous points between neighboring images, while the maximum height deviation of these points is up to several hundred meters. This phenomenon indicates that current orbit determination results of CE-2 cannot truly reflect the relative position relationship between probe and lunar surface features. Against this background, global adjustment using images of the moon should be carried out to solve this problem. In this paper, the influence of CE-2 current orbit accuracy on the production of a global lunar topographic map will be analyzed based on the introduction of CE-2 observation data, including images and orbit data. Additionally, key technologies and technical processes of global adjustment using CE-2 images with high-resolution and large amounts of data will be researched. Finally, orbit optimization of CE-2 after global adjustment is analyzed, as well as the accuracy of the CE-2 global lunar topographic map for validation verification.

  3. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  4. A Global Framework for Monitoring Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    White, Michael A; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hargrove, William Walter; Nemani, Ramakrishna R

    2005-01-01

    Remote sensing of vegetation phenology is an important method with which to monitor terrestrial responses to climate change, but most approaches include signals from multiple forcings, such as mixed phenological signals from multiple biomes, urbanization, political changes, shifts in agricultural practices, and disturbances. Consequently, it is difficult to extract a clear signal from the usually assumed forcing: climate change. Here, using global 8 km 1982 to 1999 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and an eight-element monthly climatology, we identified pixels whose wavelet power spectrum was consistently dominated by annual cycles and then created phenologically and climatically self-similar clusters, which we term phenoregions. We then ranked and screened each phenoregion as a function of landcover homogeneity and consistency, evidence of human impacts, and political diversity. Remaining phenoregions represented areas with a minimized probability of non-climatic forcings and form elemental units for long-term phenological monitoring.

  5. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  6. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  7. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

    2013-01-31

    As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes. PMID:23364744

  8. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  9. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  10. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2011-10-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1 m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1 m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1 m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1 m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  11. Assessing the influence of viscoelastic stress change globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sunbul, Fatih; Nalbant, Suleyman; Steacy, Sandy; Parsons, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Long term viscoleastic effects play an important role in stress accumulation along faults. Developing a better understanding of these effects may lead to improve quantification of the seismic hazard in tectonically active areas. Parsons (2002) computed at a global scale, the difference between the rate of earthquakes occurring in regions where shear stress increased and those regions where the shear stress decreased. Looking at the shear component of the stress tensor, he found globally that 61% of the earthquakes occurred in regions where there was a shear stress increase, while 39% occurred in areas of shear stress decrease. However, he considered only the coseismic period of the seismic cycle and very often this produces an incomplete picture of both the regional stress changes around the fault and its interaction with neighbouring faults. By examining both the coseismic and postseismic periods we aim to develop a more complete understanding of these phenomena. We individually study the shear and the normal components of the stress tensor with the objective of making a final comparison between the results for each component. Another extension to Parsons' (2002) work is the inclusion of viscoelastic stress change in the calculations. Although the stress change contribution of the viscoelastic relaxation is small for short post-seismic periods and small number of events, when it is cumulated over long periods of time and for many earthquakes, it can become a major contributor to the total regional stress. We are testing two crustal viscoelastic models, each consisting of three layers. In both cases the thickness for each layer was obtained from CRUST1.0 program. In the first model, the Strong Lower Crust- Weak Mantle (SLC-WM) we treat the upper crust layer as purely elastic, and a strongly viscoelastic lower crust and weakly viscoelastic upper mantle. In the second model, the Weak Lower Crust- Strong Mantle (WLC-SM) the upper crust remains purely elastic but the

  12. Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Phillips, Oliver L

    2004-03-29

    Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño-Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests. PMID:15212095

  13. Global Monitoring of Martian Surface Albedo Changes from Orbital Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geissler, P.; Enga, M.; Mukherjee, P.

    2013-12-01

    Martian surface changes were first observed from orbit during the Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter missions. They were found to be caused by eolian processes, produced by deposition of dust during regional and global dust storms and subsequent darkening of the surface through erosion and transportation of dust and sand. The albedo changes accumulated in the 20 years between Viking and Mars Global Surveyor were sufficient to alter the global circulation of winds and the climate of Mars according to model calculations (Fenton et al., Nature 2007), but little was known about the timing or frequency of the changes. Since 1999, we have had the benefit of continuous monitoring by a series of orbiting spacecraft that continues today with Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express. Daily synoptic observations enable us to determine whether the surface albedo changes are gradual or episodic in nature and to record the seasons that the changes take place. High resolution images of surface morphology and atmospheric phenomena help identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the changes. From these data, we hope to learn the combinations of atmospheric conditions and sediment properties that produce surface changes on Mars and possibly predict when they will take place in the future. Martian surface changes are particularly conspicuous in low albedo terrain, where even a thin layer of bright dust brightens the surface drastically. Equatorial dark areas are repeatedly coated and recoated by dust, which is later shed from the surface by a variety of mechanisms. An example is Syrtis Major, suddenly buried in bright dust by the global dust storm of 2001. Persistent easterly winds blew much of the dust cover away over the course of the next Martian year, but episodic changes continue today, particularly during southern summer when regional dust storms are rife. Another such region is Solis Planum, south of the Valles Marineris, where changes take place

  14. Disturbances, organisms and ecosystems: a global change perspective

    PubMed Central

    Ponge, Jean-François

    2013-01-01

    The present text exposes a theory of the role of disturbances in the assemblage and evolution of species within ecosystems, based principally, but not exclusively, on terrestrial ecosystems. Two groups of organisms, doted of contrasted strategies when faced with environmental disturbances, are presented, based on the classical r-K dichotomy, but enriched with more modern concepts from community and evolutionary ecology. Both groups participate in the assembly of known animal, plant, and microbial communities, but with different requirements about environmental fluctuations. The so-called “civilized” organisms are doted with efficient anticipatory mechanisms, allowing them to optimize from an energetic point of view their performances in a predictable environment (stable or fluctuating cyclically at the scale of life expectancy), and they developed advanced specializations in the course of evolutionary time. On the opposite side, the so-called “barbarians” are weakly efficient in a stable environment because they waste energy for foraging, growth, and reproduction, but they are well adapted to unpredictably changing conditions, in particular during major ecological crises. Both groups of organisms succeed or alternate each other in the course of spontaneous or geared successional processes, as well as in the course of evolution. The balance of “barbarians” against “civilized” strategies within communities is predicted to shift in favor of the first type under present-day anthropic pressure, exemplified among others by climate warming, land use change, pollution, and biological invasions. PMID:23610648

  15. Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2005-05-01

    Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From

  16. Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jianping; Ji, Mingxia; Xie, Yongkun; Wang, Shanshan; He, Yongli; Ran, Jinjiang

    2016-02-01

    This study analyzes areal changes and regional climate variations in global semi-arid regions over 61 years (1948-2008) and investigates the dynamics of global semi-arid climate change. The results reveal that the largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semi-arid regions since the early 1960s. This expansion of semi-arid regions accounts for more than half of the total dryland expansion. The area of semi-arid regions in the most recent 15 years studied (1990-2004) is 7 % larger than that during the first 15 years (1948-1962) of the study period; this expansion totaled 0.4 × 106 and 1.2 × 106 km2 within the American continents and in the Eastern Hemisphere, respectively. Although semi-arid expansion occurred in both regions, the shifting patterns of the expansion are different. Across the American continents, the newly formed semi-arid regions developed from arid regions, in which the climate became wetter. Conversely, in the continental Eastern Hemisphere, semi-arid regions replaced sub-humid/humid regions, in which the climate became drier. The climate change in drying semi-arid regions over East Asia is primarily dominated by a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, while the wetting of semi-arid regions over North America is primarily controlled by enhanced westerlies.

  17. Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serban, Cristina; Maftei, Carmen; Zagan, Sabina; Chitu, Greti; Zagan, Remus

    2013-04-01

    Studies and research on global climate change produced in Dobrogea Atmospheric phenomena risk, high acuity products in recent years compels us to a more careful study of the phenomena caused by global climate change produced in Dobrogea. Risk atmospheric phenomena and quick release is characterized by extremely high energies that are catastrophic, sudden and hard to prognosis in current contexts. In our paper we clarify the concept of aridity, and discusses related concepts including indices of aridity, and their influence on Dobrogea area and soil features including climatic water deficit. The drought impact is evaluated by calculating different indices of drought from meteorological and hydrological point of view. In Dobrogea, the phenomena mentioned already manifested by hail, violent storms, tornadoes, heavy precipitation, rainfall, manifested in short periods, producing floods and landslides. Sudden changes, increased environmental air parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure) creates, in turn, serious human discomfort and other negative effects of socio-economic. These "risk events" is frequently interleaves severe periods of drought, completing the sequence of natural disasters are difficult to predict. Another characteristic of desertification in Dobrogea is eroding - cruel impoverishment of the soil created by strong winds and violent rain causes strong erosion. Dust storms and sand pits desert areas severely affects state land, forests and degrade air quality breathable, cruelly destroying into ozone. Summarizing, the objective of this paper is to present some results using drought indices and a Grid computing application, which estimates the land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at regional scale.

  18. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1994-09-01

    This research is ultimately concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO2-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions` exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. This report concerns research conducted with funding from the Carbon Dioxide Research Program (now the Global Climate Change Program) of the US Department of Energy via grant no. DE-FG02-90ER61019 during the period 15 July 1990 - 14 July 1994. This was a three-year award, extended to a fourth year (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1994) via a no-cost extension. It is important to emphasize that this award has been renewed for an additional two years (15 July 1993 - 14 July 1995) via grant no. DE-FG03-93ER61646 (with the same title). Because the project was originally envisioned to be a five-year effort, many of the important results and conclusions will be available for the Final Report of that second award. This report therefore concerns mainly preliminary conclusions and a discussion of progress toward understanding the central hypothesis of the research.

  19. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

    PubMed Central

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  20. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    PubMed

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  1. E-Infrastructure and Data Management for Global Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allison, M. L.; Gurney, R. J.; Cesar, R.; Cossu, R.; Gemeinholzer, B.; Koike, T.; Mokrane, M.; Peters, D.; Nativi, S.; Samors, R.; Treloar, A.; Vilotte, J. P.; Visbeck, M.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum, a coalition of science funding agencies from 15 countries, is supporting an 18-month effort to assess the state of international of e-infrastructures and data management so that global change data and information can be more easily and efficiently exchanged internationally and across domains. Ultimately, this project aims to address the Belmont "Challenge" to deliver knowledge needed for action to avoid and adapt to detrimental environmental change, including extreme hazardous events. This effort emerged from conclusions by the Belmont Forum that transformative approaches and innovative technologies are needed for heterogeneous data/information to be integrated and made interoperable for researchers in disparate fields, and for myriad uses across international, institutional, disciplinary, spatial and temporal boundaries. The project will deliver a Community Strategy and Implementation Plan to prioritize international funding opportunities and long-term policy recommendations on how the Belmont Forum can implement a more coordinated, holistic, and sustainable approach to funding and supporting global change research. The Plan is expected to serve as the foundation of future Belmont Forum funding calls for proposals in support of research science goals as well as to establish long term e-infrastructure. More than 120 scientists, technologists, legal experts, social scientists, and other experts are participating in six Work Packages to develop the Plan by spring, 2015, under the broad rubrics of Architecture/Interoperability and Governance: Data Integration for Multidisciplinary Research; Improved Interface between Computation & Data Infrastructures; Harmonization of Global Data Infrastructure; Data Sharing; Open Data; and Capacity Building. Recommendations could lead to a more coordinated approach to policies, procedures and funding mechanisms to support e-infrastructures in a more sustainable way.

  2. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  3. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  4. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  5. The biosphere as a driver of global atmospheric change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    The effects of the biosphere on the evolution of atmospheric oxygen and ozone, and the consequences of that development for global atmospheric change, are discussed. Attention is given to the impact of oxygen and ozone on atmospheric photolysis rates, the effect of oxygen on the biogenic production of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide, and the effects of the evolution of atmospheric oxygen on fires and biomass burning. The influence of the latter on atmospheric processes, particularly the production of methane, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide, is considered.

  6. A Decade on the Global Change EPO Trail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katzenberger, J. W.; Somerville, R. C.

    2002-12-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) offers a variety of approaches to enhance K-12 Earth systems science education through pre- and in-service educator professional development workshops, materials development, and experiences for scientists on roles they can play in education and outreach. Partnering institutions have included the Space Science Institute, NASA Earth Science Enterprise, and NSF Geosciences. Here we review approaches and lessons learned from three projects. 1) The Ground Truth Studies teacher workshops and the development of the Ground Truth Studies Teacher Handbook, funded as a cooperative agreement with NASA and other sources. This project was developed with Earth system scientists, environmental education curriculum developers, K-12 teachers and was piloted in several states. The project culminated in the development of the teacher handbook which includes primers on global change, remote sensing, elementary and secondary level hands-on activities, and resources. This publication has been utilized in conjunction with other teacher training programs or as a stand-alone resource for teachers. 2) PESTO (Pre- and In-Service Earth Science Training Opportunity) funded by NASA, a residential week-long intensive experience for pre- and in-service teachers offered for graduate and undergraduate credit. The PESTO faculty included a senior research scientist, an environmental educator/curriculum developer, and an EPO specialist. Content included an overview of global environmental change with an emphasis on climate and atmospheric chemistry and a review of online and CD resources relevant to elementary and secondary Earth systems topics. Visiting scientists engaged the group in the process of science and issues associated with science in society. 3) Workshop on K-12 Education for Geoscientists, a NSF/Geosciences sponsored project was a mini-workshop embedded within one of AGCI's interdisciplinary science meetings on a topic in global change. The

  7. Remote sensing/global change. A special bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The first portion of this bibliography contains citations (with abstracts, when available) to unclassified literature contained in the NASA STI Database. These citations also appeared in issues of the abstract journal 'Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports (STAR)', or in other announcement products offered by the NASA STI Program. The citations appear in ascending accession number order. A second section provides several indexes to the citations. They are subject term, personal author, report number, and accession number. The citations are included for the following disciplines as they relate to remote sensing and global change: astronautics, engineering, geosciences, life sciences, mathematical and computer sciences, social sciences, and space sciences.

  8. Linking above and belowground responses to global change at community and ecosystem scales.

    SciTech Connect

    Antoninka, Anita; Wolf, Julie; Bowker, Matt; Classen, Aimee T; JohnsonPhD, Dr Nancy C

    2009-01-01

    Cryptic belowground organisms are difficult to observe and their responses to global changes are not well understood. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that interactions among above- and belowground communities may mediate ecosystem responses to global change. We used grassland mesocosms to manipulate the abundance of one important group of soil organisms, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, and to study community and ecosystem responses to CO2 and N enrichment. After two growing seasons, biomass responses of plant communities were recorded, and soil community responses were measured using microscopy, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) and community-level physiological profiles (CLPP). Ecosystem responses were examined by measuring net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration, total soil organic matter (SOM), and extractable mineral N. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the causal relationships among treatments and response variables. We found that while CO2 and N tended to directly impact ecosystem functions (evapotranspiration and NPP, respectively), AM fungi indirectly impacted ecosystem functions by strongly influencing the composition of plant and soil communities. For example, the presence of AM fungi had a strong influence on other root and soil fungi and soil bacteria. We found that the mycotrophic status of the dominant plant species in the mesocosms determined whether the presence of AM fungi increased or decreased NPP. Mycotrophic grasses dominated the mesocosm communities during the first growing season, and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the highest NPP. In contrast, non-mycotrophic forbs were dominant during the second growing season and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the lowest NPP. The composition of the plant community strongly influenced soil N; and the composition of the soil organisms strongly influenced SOM accumulation in the mesocosms. These results show how linkages between above- and belowground communities

  9. Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

    2014-01-01

    Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091–2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006–2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. PMID:24382828

  10. Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

    2014-06-01

    Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. PMID:24382828

  11. Global change and mercury cycling: challenges for implementing a global mercury treaty.

    PubMed

    Selin, Noelle E

    2014-06-01

    The Minamata Convention aims to protect human health and the environment from anthropogenic emissions and releases of mercury. In the present study, the provisions of the Minamata Convention are examined to assess their influence on global biogeochemical cycling of Hg. Although the convention's scope covers all major categories of atmospheric emissions, the degree to which it will affect future emissions trajectories remains unclear. A box model analysis shows that future global biogeochemical cycling under projected technological provisions would result mainly in avoided increases and that estimated differences in atmospheric concentrations resulting from policies would be on the order of 1% to 2% per year. Present experience suggests that scientific knowledge is not currently sufficient to attribute causes to changes of this magnitude. Enhancements to capacity to measure the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention are suggested, including both measurement and modeling. PMID:24038450

  12. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  13. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  14. Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities.

  15. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Conclusions Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated. PMID:18470284

  16. Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Norby, Richard J.

    1997-12-31

    The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the development of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.

  17. Are modern biological invasions an unprecedented form of global change?

    PubMed

    Ricciardi, Anthony

    2007-04-01

    The uniqueness of the current, global mass invasion by nonindigenous species has been challenged recently by researchers who argue that modern rates and consequences of nonindigenous species establishment are comparable to episodes in the geological past. Although there is a fossil record of species invasions occurring in waves after geographic barriers had been lifted, such episodic events differ markedly from human-assisted invasions in spatial and temporal scales and in the number and diversity of organisms involved in long-distance dispersal. Today, every region of the planet is simultaneously affected and modern rates of invasion are several orders of magnitude higher than prehistoric rates. In terms of its rate and geographical extent, its potential for synergistic disruption and the scope of its evolutionary consequences, the current mass invasion event is without precedent and should be regarded as a unique form of global change. Prehistoric examples of biotic interchanges are nonetheless instructive and can increase our understanding of species-area effects, evolutionary effects, biotic resistance to invasion, and the impacts of novel functional groups introduced to naïve biotas. Nevertheless, they provide only limited insight into the synergistic effects of invasions and other environmental stressors, the effect of frequent introductions of large numbers of propagules, and global homogenization, all of which characterize the current mass invasion event. PMID:17391183

  18. Hurricanes and Climate Change: Global Systems and Local Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, J.

    2011-12-01

    With funding from NOAA, the Miami Science Museum has been working with exhibit software developer Ideum to create an interactive exhibit exploring the global dimensions and local impacts of climate change. A particular focus is on climate-related impacts on coastal communities, including the potential effects on South Florida of ocean acidification, rising sea level, and the possibility of more intense hurricanes. The exhibit is using a 4-foot spherical display system in conjunction with a series of touchscreen kiosks and accompanying flat screens to create a user-controlled, multi-user interface that lets visitors control the sphere and choose from a range of global and local content they wish to explore. The exhibit has been designed to promote engagement of diverse, multigenerational audiences through development of a fully bilingual user interface that promotes social interaction and conversation among visitors as they trade off control of global content on the sphere and related local content on the flat screens. The open-source learning module will be adaptable by other museums, to explore climate impacts specific to their region.

  19. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  20. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    SciTech Connect

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W.

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  1. The Changing Role of the WORLD BANK in Global Health

    PubMed Central

    Ruger, Jennifer Prah

    2005-01-01

    The World Bank began operations on June 25, 1946. Although it was established to finance European reconstruction after World War II, the bank today is a considerable force in the health, nutrition, and population (HNP) sector in developing countries. Indeed, it has evolved from having virtually no presence in global health to being the world’s largest financial contributor to health-related projects, now committing more than $1 billion annually for new HNP projects. It is also one of the world’s largest supporters in the fight against HIV/AIDS, with commitments of more than $1.6 billion over the past several years. I have mapped this transformation in the World Bank’s role in global health, illustrating shifts in the bank’s mission and financial orientation, as well as the broader changes in development theory and practice. Through a deepened understanding of the complexities of development, the World Bank now regards investments in HNP programs as fundamental to its role in the global economy. PMID:15623860

  2. Electric utility industry addresses issue of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-04-01

    Global climate change is a high priority issue for the electric utility industry, and careful consideration is under-way of numerous options to deal effectively with the potential consequences. The earth's temperature has risen about 0.5 degrees Celsius during the past 100 years. It is not known, however, whether this warning is part of a natural cycle or whether man-made emissions will cause additional warning. Scientists speculate the earth's temperature would have to rise another four to five degrees Celsius for significant adverse effects to result from global warming. The utility industry plans to give careful consideration to an array of supply and demand options, he said. Reliable and affordable electric generation is imperative to our society and will be increasingly important in helping societies adapt if global warning does occur. The nation needs a balanced energy mix to ensure an adequate energy supply. The development of new clean coal burning technologies is essential and should be accelerated to increase efficiency and minimize atmospheric emissions. The utility industry is also looking at processes that will reduce CO{sub 2} emissions in the industrial and transportation sectors.

  3. Laser and gas centrifuge enrichment

    SciTech Connect

    Heinonen, Olli

    2014-05-09

    Principles of uranium isotope enrichment using various laser and gas centrifuge techniques are briefly discussed. Examples on production of high enriched uranium are given. Concerns regarding the possibility of using low end technologies to produce weapons grade uranium are explained. Based on current assessments commercial enrichment services are able to cover the global needs of enriched uranium in the foreseeable future.

  4. Laser and gas centrifuge enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinonen, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Principles of uranium isotope enrichment using various laser and gas centrifuge techniques are briefly discussed. Examples on production of high enriched uranium are given. Concerns regarding the possibility of using low end technologies to produce weapons grade uranium are explained. Based on current assessments commercial enrichment services are able to cover the global needs of enriched uranium in the foreseeable future.

  5. Plant Community Change Mediates the Response of Foliar δ15 Nitrogen to CO2 Enrichment in Mesic Grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polley, W.; Derner, J. D.; Jackson, R. B.; Gill, R. A.; Procter, A.; Fay, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration may change the isotopic signature of plant N by altering plant and microbial processes involved in the N cycle. Isotope fractionation theory and limited experimental evidence indicate that CO2 may increase leaf δ15N by increasing plant community productivity, C input to soil, and, ultimately, microbial mineralization of old, 15N-enriched organic matter. We predicted that foliar δ15N values would increase as a positive function of the CO2 effect on aboveground productivity (ANPP) of two grassland communities, a pasture dominated by a C4 exotic grass and assemblages of native tallgrass prairie species, the latter grown on each of three soils, a clay, sandy loam, and silty clay. Both grasslands are located in Texas, USA and were exposed to a pre-industrial to elevated CO2 gradient for four years. CO2 enrichment did not consistently increase both ANPP and δ15N. Increased CO2 stimulated ANPP of pasture and of prairie assemblages on each of the three soils. However, CO2 increased leaf δ15N only for prairie plants grown on a silty clay soil. CO2 enrichment led to a shift in dominance from a mid-grass (Bouteloua curtipendula) to a tallgrass prairie species (Sorghastrum nutans) that contributed to increased leaf δ15N on the silty clay soil by increasing ANPP and apparently stimulating mineralization of recalcitrant organic matter. By contrast, CO2 enrichment favored a forb species (Solanum dimidiatum) with higher δ15N values than the dominant grass (Bothriochloa ischaemum) in pasture. Results highlight the role of changes in community composition in CO2 effects on grassland δ15N values.

  6. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  7. The Quaternary fossil-pollen record and global change

    SciTech Connect

    Grimm, E.C. . Research and Collections Center)

    1993-03-01

    Fossil pollen provide one of the most valuable records of vegetation and climate change during the recent geological past. Advantages of the fossil-pollen record are that deposits containing fossil pollen are widespread, especially in areas having natural lakes, that fossil pollen occurs in continuous stratigraphic sequences spanning millennia, and that fossil pollen occurs in quantitative assemblages permitting a multivariate approach for reconstructing past vegetation and climates. Because of stratigraphic continuity, fossil pollen records climate cycles on a wide range of scales, from annual to the 100 ka Milankovitch cycles. Receiving particular emphasis recently are decadal to century scale changes, possible from the sediments of varved lakes, and late Pleistocene events on a 5--10 ka scale possibly correlating with the Heinrich events in the North Atlantic marine record or the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the Greenland ice-core record. Researchers have long reconstructed vegetation and climate by qualitative interpretation of the fossil-pollen record. Recently quantitative interpretation has developed with the aid of large fossil-pollen databases and sophisticated numerical models. In addition, fossil pollen are important climate proxy data for validating General Circulation Models, which are used for predicting the possible magnitude future climate change. Fossil-pollen data also contribute to an understanding of ecological issues associated with global climate change, including questions of how and how rapidly ecosystems might respond to abrupt climate change.

  8. Antarctic Benthic Fauna in the Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kidawa, Anna; Janecki, Tomasz

    2011-01-01

    In the last 50 years a significant climatic shift has been observed along the Antarctic Peninsula (air and seawater temperature rise, glacial retreat, localized instances of lowered shallow waters salinities). Many Antarctic marine benthic invertebrates are adapted to specific environmental conditions (e.g. low stable temperatures, high salinity and oxygen content). Changes caused by global climate changes and subsequent glacial melting can be expected to have significant impacts on species physiology and distribution. The rise of sea water temperature coupled with such additional stress factors as melt water run-off, increased ice disturbance, disruption of food webs or invasion of alien species can be a serious problem for their long-term survival.

  9. Changes in stratospheric chemistry and inferences for global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Pinto, J. )

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the chemical cycles of stratospheric trace gases is presented. Free radicals produced by the decomposition of tropospheric source molecules N/sub 2/O, CH/sub 4/, H/sub 2/O and Freons exert a controlling influence on the abundance of stratospheric ozone. While the first three gases have mainly natural sources, there are also large contributions from human activities. Predictions of the consequences of human activities for stratospheric ozone requires knowledge of present and future emissions of these species along with an understanding of the factors controlling these emissions. Photochemical interactions between stratospheric free radicals and the interactions between ozone change and stratospheric dynamics must also be known. The combined processes of chemistry, radiation and dynamics have been especially effective in the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole. The implications of change in stratospheric ozone for global climate are considered.

  10. Spatial Metadata for Global Change Investigations Using Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Emerson, Charles W.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Lam, Nina Siu-Ngan; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Satellite and aircraft-borne remote sensors have gathered petabytes of data over the past 30+ years. These images are an important resource for establishing cause and effect relationships between human-induced land cover changes and alterations in climate and other biophysical patterns at local to global scales. However, the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of these datasets vary, thus complicating long-term studies involving several types of imagery. As the geographical and temporal coverage, the spectral and spatial resolution, and the number of individual sensors increase, the sheer volume and complexity of available data sets will complicate management and use of the rapidly growing archive of earth imagery. Mining this vast data resource for images that provide the necessary information for climate change studies becomes more difficult as more sensors are launched and more imagery is obtained.

  11. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  12. Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iles, Carley E.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2015-11-01

    Following large explosive volcanic eruptions, precipitation decreases over much of the globe, particularly in climatologically wet regions. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilizes the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow, given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world that cover between two and six major volcanic eruptions in the twentieth and late nineteenth century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma, amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined--based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions--a significant (p < 0.1) decrease in streamflow following eruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in flow in southern South American and southwestern North American rivers. Our findings suggest that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.

  13. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels. PMID:25403380

  14. Global change feed-back inhibits cyanobacterial photosynthesis

    PubMed Central

    Walter Helbling, E.; Banaszak, Anastazia T.; Villafañe, Virginia E.

    2015-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are an important component of aquatic ecosystems, with a proliferation of massive cyanobacterial blooms predicted worldwide under increasing warming conditions. In addition to temperature, other global change related variables, such as water column stratification, increases in dissolved organic matter (DOM) discharge into freshwater systems and greater wind stress (i.e., more opaque and mixed upper water column/epilimnion) might also affect the responses of cyanobacteria. However, the combined effects of these variables on cyanobacterial photosynthesis remain virtually unknown. Here we present evidence that this combination of global-change conditions results in a feed-back mechanism by which, fluctuations in solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR, 280–400 nm) due to vertical mixing within the epilimnion act synergistically with increased DOM to impair cyanobacterial photosynthesis as the water column progressively darkens. The main consequence of such a feed-back response is that these organisms will not develop large blooms in areas of latitudes higher than 30°, in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, where DOM inputs and surface wind stress are increasing. PMID:26415603

  15. Investigating global change and fish biology with fish otolith radiocarbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalish, John M.

    1994-06-01

    Fish otoliths, calcium carbonate gravity and auditory receptors in the membranous labyrinths of teleost fish, can provide radiocarbon data that are valuable to a wide range of disciplines. For example, the first pre- and post-bomb time series of radiocarbon levels from northern or southern hemisphere temperate oceans was obtained by carrying out accelerator mass spectrometry analyses on selected regions of fish otoliths. These data can provide powerful constraints on both carbon cycle models and ocean general circulation models. Because fish otoliths can serve as a proxy of radiocarbon in seawater dissolved inorganic carbon in all oceans and at most depths, there is considerable scope for further investigations of otolith radiocarbon in relation to both oceanography and global change. In addition to applications relevant to global change, fish otoliths are also valuable sources of information on the age, growth, and ecology of fishes, with age being among the most important parameters in population modelling and fisheries management. Use of the bomb radiocarbon chronometer to validate fish age determination methods offers considerable advantages over traditional forms of age validation and promises to become a standard tool in fish biology and fisheries management. Radiocarbon data from otoliths can also provide valuable information on the ecology of fishes and has already provided surprising information relevant to the ecology of some deep-sea fishes.

  16. Global change feed-back inhibits cyanobacterial photosynthesis.

    PubMed

    Walter Helbling, E; Banaszak, Anastazia T; Villafañe, Virginia E

    2015-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are an important component of aquatic ecosystems, with a proliferation of massive cyanobacterial blooms predicted worldwide under increasing warming conditions. In addition to temperature, other global change related variables, such as water column stratification, increases in dissolved organic matter (DOM) discharge into freshwater systems and greater wind stress (i.e., more opaque and mixed upper water column/epilimnion) might also affect the responses of cyanobacteria. However, the combined effects of these variables on cyanobacterial photosynthesis remain virtually unknown. Here we present evidence that this combination of global-change conditions results in a feed-back mechanism by which, fluctuations in solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR, 280-400 nm) due to vertical mixing within the epilimnion act synergistically with increased DOM to impair cyanobacterial photosynthesis as the water column progressively darkens. The main consequence of such a feed-back response is that these organisms will not develop large blooms in areas of latitudes higher than 30°, in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, where DOM inputs and surface wind stress are increasing. PMID:26415603

  17. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  18. Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions

    PubMed Central

    Iles, Carley E.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2016-01-01

    Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1–6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8–10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20th and late 19th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions – a significant (p<0.1) decrease in streamflow following eruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability. PMID:27279897

  19. A Terrestrial Surface Climate Data Record for Global Change Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermote, E.; Justice, C. O.; Claverie, M.; Csiszar, I. A.; Meyer, D. J.; Myneni, R.; Baret, F.; Masuoka, E.; Wolfe, R. E.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents results from a project to produce, validate and distribute a global land surface Climate Data Record (CDR) using a combination of mature and tested algorithms and the best available polar orbiting satellite data from the past to the present (1981-2012), which can be extendable into the JPSS era. The data record consists of one fundamental climate data record (FCDR), the surface reflectance product. Two Thematic CDRs (TCDRs) are also be derived from the FCDR, the normalized difference vegetation index (VI) and LAI/fAPAR. These two products are used extensively for climate change research and are listed as Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). In addition, these products are used in a number of applications of long-term societal benefit. The two TCDRs are used to assess the performance of the FCDR through a rigorous validation program and will provide feedback on the requirements for the Surface Reflectance FCDR. We will focus in this presentation on the progress made so far, the discussion of the performance of version 3.0 of the product and the subsequent improvements and schedule for release of version 4.0. We will also present in detail the mechanisms for product generation, distribution, quality control, uncertainties assessment for this Terrestrial Climate Data Record. We will finally present practical applications of this dataset to forest cover change detection over the long term as well as drought monitoring in the context of agricultural production and food security.

  20. Changes in the global methane budget since 2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousquet, P.; Saunois, M.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Canadell, J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Peregon, A.

    2014-12-01

    Methane is the second anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Atmospheric methane has contributed about 20% of the climate forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times but also influences the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. With a lifetime of 9-10 years in the atmosphere, methane is an important target for climate change mitigation. Observations of atmospheric methane began in 1978, reached global coverage after 1983, and now include a large variety of in-situ and remote-sensed observations. After the loss of SCIAMACHY (2002-2012), two space missions are currently producing methane weighted-columns, GOSAT (since 2009) and METOP-IASI (since 2007). Although sources and sinks of methane are identified, large uncertainties remain in their spatio-temporal quantification. Here, we present a synthesis of methane emissions and sinks since 2000 using an integrated approach to combine: atmospheric measurements, chemistry-transport models, ecosystem models, emission inventories, and climate-chemistry models. The results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions (top-down) and of process-based models (bottom-up) are presented and compared in order to propose scenarios for the increase of atmospheric methane since 2007, after almost a decade of stagnation. Global and regional methane budgets and their changes are presented and discussed for the period 2000-2012. Focus is placed in comparing methane inversions constrained by satellite data with those constrained by surface data.

  1. Climate Change and Agricultural Sustainability - A Global Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, X.; Zhang, X.

    2012-12-01

    This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of climate change impact on world-wide agricultural sustainability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections. The potential changes in agricultural land and crop water requirement and availability are assessed by region in the world. Uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from a number of GCMs and representative emission scenarios. Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e., soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that global arable land area is likely to be affected by emission scenarios, for example, it may decrease by 0.8% ~ 1.7% under scenario A1B (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 850 ppmv) but increase by 2.0% ~ 4.4% under scenario B1 (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 600 ppmv, which represents a greener economy than A1B). However, at the regional scale, although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are consistent: Regions with relative high latitudes - Russia, China and the U.S. - could see a significant increase in arable land in coming years, but South America, Africa, Europe and India could lose land area. For agricultural water use, the following questions are addressed: Where will there be a need for irrigation expansion and by how much? Where and how much of current irrigation pressures or water deficits for rainfed crops can be mitigated or aggravated? And finally, what is the overall situation for the entire world? It is found that despite the universally rising mean temperature, the global irrigation requirements are likely to decrease. This is probably due to the declining diurnal temperature range, which plays a key role in the evapotranspiration control, as well as the increasing precipitation in many areas contributing to the

  2. Pilot Institute on Global Change on Trace Gases and the Biosphere, 1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eddy, J. A.; Moore, B.

    1998-01-01

    Table of Contents: Summary; Background; General Framework for a Series of Institutes on Global Change; The 1988 Pilot Institute on Global Changes: Trace Gases and the Biosphere; Budget; List of Acronyms; and Attachments.

  3. Assessment of relative Ti, Ta, and Nb (TiTaN) enrichments in global ocean island basalts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, B.; Day, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    The relative sensitivity of trace element concentrations to processes governing solid-melt and solid-fluid interactions has made them particularly useful for tracing the effects of partial melting, fractional crystallization, metasomatism and similar processes on the composition of a parental melt to a rock or mineral. Radiogenic and stable isotope compositions, in contrast, can provide information on the long-term history and provenance of magmas. Despite the distinct information derived from relative and absolute abundances of trace elements compared with isotopes, numerous studies of ocean island basalts (OIB) have attempted to use trace elements as diagnostic geochemical tracers to understand parental magma compositions. In particular, attempts have been made to correlate 'TiTaN' (Ti, Ta and Nb) anomalies to the He-Os isotopic compositions of OIB based on contributions from recycled eclogite, a theoretical high-TiTaN reservoir, and peridotite, a theoretical high-3He/4He reservoir (Jackson, et al., 2008 G-cubed). These authors have proposed that TiTaN anomalies can be used as independent indicators for recycled oceanic crust and lithospheric mantle in OIB sources, a distinction previously reserved for isotopic data. However, TiTaN anomalies appear uncorrelated to OIB mantle source composition for three reasons. First, a new geochemical compilation of global OIB shows a wide range of Ti (Ti/Ti* = 0.28 - 2.35), Ta (Ta/Ta* = 0.11 - 93.42) and Nb (Nb/Nb* = 0.13 - 17.79) anomalies that do not correlated with each other or noble gas systematics, indicating that: (i) TiTaN anomalies alone do not correspond to the primitive source traced by high-3He/4He or the solar neon component and (ii) Ti, Ta and Nb anomalies may each reflect distinct processes or origins, rather than tracing a single source or process together. Second, positive Ti anomalies can be generated by low-degree (1-10%), non-modal batch partial melting of garnet lherzolite at temperatures and pressures

  4. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    PubMed Central

    Preet, Raman; Nilsson, Maria; Schumann, Barbara; Evengård, Birgitta

    2010-01-01

    Background Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health. PMID:21160554

  5. Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Dimou, George

    1997-04-01

    The sensitivity of Acheloos river flood events at the outfall of the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central Greece was analysed under various scenarios of global climate change. The climate change pattern was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increase coupled with precipitation changes. The daily outflow of the catchment, which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, was simulated by the coupling of snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System. Two threshold levels were used to define a flood day—the double and triple long-term mean daily streamflow—and the flood parameters (occurrences, duration, magnitude, etc.) for these cases were determined. Despite the complicated response of flood events to temperature increase and threshold, both hypothetical and monthly GISS representations of climate change resulted in more and longer flood events for climates with increased precipitation. All climates yielded larger flood volumes and greater mean values of flood peaks with respect to precipitation increase. The lower threshold resulted in more and longer flood occurrences, as well as smaller flood volumes and peaks than those of the upper one. The combination of higher and frequent flood events could lead to greater risks of inudation and possible damage to structures. Furthermore, the winter swelling of the streamflow could increase erosion of the river bed and banks and hence modify the river profile.

  6. Understand Changes of the Tropical Tropopause Under Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, P.; Paynter, D.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2014-12-01

    Previous model studies has predicted a warmer and higher tropical tropopause as greenhouse gases increases, but the mechanisms of such changes have not been investigated fully. Here we examine changes the tropical tropopause in two idealized experiments simulated by GFDL global climate model AM3: (1) 4xCO2 with fixed sea surface temperature; and (2) an uniform 4K increase of the sea surface temperature with fixed greenhouse gases concentrations. The tropical tropopause becomes warmer in both experiments, but a higher tropopause is only seen in the second case. By examining the heat budget of the tropical tropoapuse, we diagnose the physical processes that are responsible for these changes and quantify their contributions. For the 4xCO2 experiment, the direct radiative effect of CO2 increase contributes the most. For the SST warming experiment, the radiative effect of a warmer troposphere and convection-related processes lead to a warming at 100 hPa, while a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation and associated changes in ozone lead to a cooling at 60 hPa. This warming-cooling pattern results in a significant upward shift of the tropopause.

  7. Detection and Attribution of Global Mean Thermosteric Sea Level Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slangen, A.; Church, J. A.; Zhang, X.; Monselesan, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are driven by a range of natural and anthropogenic forcings. To better understand the response of global mean thermosteric sea-level change to these forcings, we compare three observational datasets to experiments of 28 climate models with up to five different forcing scenarios for 1957-2005. We use the pre-industrial control runs to determine the internal climate variability. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing is required to explain the magnitude of the observed changes, while natural forcing drives most of the externally-forced decadal variability. The experiments that include anthropogenic and natural forcings capture the observed increased trend towards the end of the 20th century. The observed changes can be best explained by scaling the natural-only experiment by 0.70±0.30 and the anthropogenic-only experiment (including opposing forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols) by 1.08±0.13 (+/-2σ).

  8. Global climate change and tree nutrition: influence of water availability.

    PubMed

    Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Gessler, Arthur

    2010-09-01

    The effects of global climate change will regionally be very different, mainly causing considerable changes in temperature and water availability. For Central Europe, for example, increased temperatures are predicted, which will cause increased frequencies and durations of summer drought events. On the other hand, the predicted changes in precipitation patterns will lead to enhanced rainfall during winter and spring, thereby increasing the risk of flooding in Central and Northern Europe. Depending on the sensitivity to reduced water availability on the one hand and oxygen depletion due to waterlogging on the other, physiological performance, growth and competitive ability of trees may be adversely affected. Both drought and excess water availability impair the mineral nutrition of trees by influencing on the one hand the nutrient availability in the soil and on the other hand the physiology of the uptake systems mainly of the mycorrhizal tree roots. Extreme water regimes also change interaction patterns among plants and between plants and microorganisms, and alter the carbon balance of trees and ecosystems. Here we summarize and discuss the present knowledge on tree nutrition under altered water availability as expected to be more common in the future. The focus is on tree mineral nutrient uptake and metabolism as well as on the interaction between carbon allocation and the mineral nutrient balance as affected by reduced and excess water availability. PMID:20581013

  9. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  10. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    PubMed

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function. PMID:26121285

  11. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    PubMed

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability". PMID:26030377

  12. Microbial lipid and amino sugar responses to long-term simulated global environmental changes in a California annual grassland

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Chao; Gutknecht, Jessica L. M.; Balser, Teri C.

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental change is predicted to have major consequences for carbon cycling and the functioning of soil ecosystems. However, we have limited knowledge about its impacts on the microorganisms, which act as a “valve” between carbon sequestered in soils versus released into the atmosphere. In this study we examined microbial response to continuous 9-years manipulation of three global change factors (elevated CO2, warming, and nitrogen deposition), singly and in combination using two methods: lipid and amino sugar biomarkers at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE). The two methods yielded important distinctions. There were limited microbial lipid differences, but many significant effects for microbial amino sugars. We found that CO2 was not a direct factor influencing soil carbon and major amino sugar pools, but had a positive impact on bacterial-derived muramic acid. Likewise, warming and nitrogen deposition appeared to enrich residues specific to bacteria despite an overall depletion in total amino sugars. The results indicate that elevated CO2, warming, and nitrogen deposition all appeared to increase bacterial-derived residues, but this accumulation effect was far offset by a corresponding decline in fungal residues. The sensitivity of microbial residue biomarker amino sugars to warming and nitrogen deposition may have implications for our predictions of global change impacts on soil stored carbon. PMID:25999926

  13. Microbial lipid and amino sugar responses to long-term simulated global environmental changes in a California annual grassland.

    PubMed

    Liang, Chao; Gutknecht, Jessica L M; Balser, Teri C

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental change is predicted to have major consequences for carbon cycling and the functioning of soil ecosystems. However, we have limited knowledge about its impacts on the microorganisms, which act as a "valve" between carbon sequestered in soils versus released into the atmosphere. In this study we examined microbial response to continuous 9-years manipulation of three global change factors (elevated CO2, warming, and nitrogen deposition), singly and in combination using two methods: lipid and amino sugar biomarkers at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE). The two methods yielded important distinctions. There were limited microbial lipid differences, but many significant effects for microbial amino sugars. We found that CO2 was not a direct factor influencing soil carbon and major amino sugar pools, but had a positive impact on bacterial-derived muramic acid. Likewise, warming and nitrogen deposition appeared to enrich residues specific to bacteria despite an overall depletion in total amino sugars. The results indicate that elevated CO2, warming, and nitrogen deposition all appeared to increase bacterial-derived residues, but this accumulation effect was far offset by a corresponding decline in fungal residues. The sensitivity of microbial residue biomarker amino sugars to warming and nitrogen deposition may have implications for our predictions of global change impacts on soil stored carbon. PMID:25999926

  14. NASA's Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Program: New modules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witiw, M. R.; Myers, R. J.; Schwerin, T. G.

    2010-12-01

    In existence for over 10 years, the Earth System Science Educational Alliance (ESSEA) through the Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) has developed a series of modules on Earth system science topics. To date, over 80 educational modules have been developed. The primary purpose of these modules is to provide graduate courses for teacher education. A typical course designed for teachers typically consists of from three to five content modules and a primer on problem-based learning. Each module is designed to take three weeks in a normal university semester. Course delivery methods vary. Some courses are completed totally online. Others are presented in the classroom. Still others are delivered using a hybrid method which combines classroom meetings with online delivery of content. Although originally designed for teachers and education students, recent changes, provide a format for general education students to use these module. In 2009, under NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) initiative, IGES was tasked to develop 16 new modules addressing the topic of climate change. Two of the modules recently developed under this program address the topics of sunspots and thermal islands. Sunspots is a problem-based learning module where students are provided resources and sample investigations related to sunspots. The history of sunspot observations, the structure of sunspots and the possible role sunspots may have in Earth’s climate are explored. Students are then asked to determine what effects a continued minimum in sunspot activity may have on the climate system. In Thermal Islands, the topic of urban heat islands is addressed. How heat islands are produced and the role of urban heat islands in exacerbating heat waves are two of the topics covered in the resources. In this problem-based learning module, students are asked to think of mitigating strategies for these thermal islands as Earth’s urban population grows over the next 50 years

  15. Changes in the global methane budget since 2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousquet, P.; Saunois, M.; Canadell, J.; Poulter, B.; Peregon, A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Etiope, G.; Bastviken, D.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ciais, P.; CH4, G. C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric methane is the second anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, with a 20% contribution to climate forcing since pre-industrial times. With a lifetime around 10 years in the atmosphere and a diversity of emission types, methane is an important target for climate change mitigation. Observations of atmospheric methane began in 1978, reached global coverage after 1983, and now include a large variety of in-situ and remote-sensed observations from the surface or from space. These data are assimilated in atmospheric inversion to infer methane emissions and sinks (top-down). In parallel, a large international effort is conducted to model processes (bottom-up) emitting methane at the surface (e.g. wetland emissions) or destroying methane in the atmosphere (e.g. OH radicals). Although sources and sinks of methane are identified, large uncertainties remain in their spatio-temporal quantification. Here, we present a synthesis of global and regional methane emissions and sinks since 2000 using an integrated approach to combine: atmospheric measurements, chemistry-transport models, ecosystem models, emission inventories, and climate-chemistry models. Robust and not robust emission estimates are extracted and presented from an ensemble of atmospheric inversions and of process-based models. The three most striking results imply : - a probable overestimation of Chinese methane emission and trend since 2000, - a mostly tropical origin (75%) of emission changes from 2005 to 2010, - a balanced (but still uncertain) partition of emission changes, between 2005 and 2010, between natural (wetlands) and anthropogenic (agriculture & waste, coal, biomass burning) emissions.

  16. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  17. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  18. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  19. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  20. Transcriptomic analysis of global changes in cytokine expression in mouse spleens following acute Toxoplasma gondii infection.

    PubMed

    He, Jun-Jun; Ma, Jun; Song, Hui-Qun; Zhou, Dong-Hui; Wang, Jin-Lei; Huang, Si-Yang; Zhu, Xing-Quan

    2016-02-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is a global pathogen that infects a wide range of animals and humans. During T. gondii infection, the spleen plays an important role in coordinating the adaptive and innate immune responses. However, there is little information regarding the changes in global gene expression within the spleen following T. gondii infection. To address this gap in knowledge, we examined the transcriptome of the mouse spleen following T. gondii infection. We observed differential expression of 2310 transcripts under these conditions. Analysis of KEGG and GO enrichment indicated that T. gondii alters multiple immune signaling cascades. Most of differentially expressed GO terms and pathways were downregulated, while immune-related GO terms and pathways were upregulated with response to T. gondii infection in mouse spleen. Most cytokines were upregulated in infected spleens, and all differentially expressed chemokines were upregulated which enhanced the immune cells chemotaxis to promote recruitment of immune cells, such as neutrophils, eosinophils, monocytes, dendritic cells, macrophages, NK cells, basophils, B cells, and T cells. Although IFN-γ-induced IDO (Ido1) was upregulated in the present study, it may not contribute a lot to the control of T. gondii because most differentially expressed genes involved in tryptophan metabolism pathway were downregulated. Innate immunity pathways, including cytosolic nucleic acid sensing pathway and C-type lectins-Syk-Card9 signaling pathways, were upregulated. We believe our study is the first comprehensive attempt to define the host transcriptional response to T. gondii infection in the mouse spleen. PMID:26508008