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Sample records for global climate part

  1. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2016-06-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse ~1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to ~0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  2. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for

  3. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  4. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Delworth, T.L.; Broccoli, A.J.; Rosati, A.; Stouffer, R.J.; Balaji, V.; Beesley, J.A.; Cooke, W.F.; Dixon, K.W.; Dunne, J.; Dunne, K.A.; Durachta, J.W.; Findell, K.L.; Ginoux, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Gudgel, R.; Harrison, M.J.; Held, I.M.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Kushner, P.J.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, S.-J.; Lu, J.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Spelman, M.J.; Stern, W.F.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Wyman, B.; Zeng, F.; Zhang, R.

    2006-01-01

    The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and

  5. Global climatic catastrophes

    SciTech Connect

    Budyko, M.I.; Golitsyn, G.S.; Izrael, A

    1988-01-01

    This work inquires into global climatic catastrophes of the past, presenting data not easily available outside of the Socialist Countries, and applies these results to the study of future climatic developments, especially as they threaten in case of Nuclear Warfare - Nuclear Winter. The authors discuss probable after effects from the Soviet point of view on the basis of research, stressing the need to avoid all conflict which might lead to the next and final Global Climatic Catastrophy.

  6. Global climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Severinghaus, J P

    1999-08-31

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  7. Global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    1999-01-01

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  8. Global distribution of soil organic carbon - Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köchy, M.; Don, A.; van der Molen, M. K.; Freibauer, A.

    2015-04-01

    Global biosphere models vary greatly in their projections of future changes of global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and aggregated global SOC masses in response to climate change. We estimated the certainty (likelihood) and quantity of increases and decreases on a half-degree grid. We assessed the effect of changes in controlling factors, including net primary productivity (NPP), litter quality, soil acidity, water saturation, depth of permafrost, land use, temperature, and aridity associated with probabilities (Bayesian network) on an embedded, temporally discrete, three-pool decomposition model. In principle, controlling factors were discretized into classes, where each class was associated with a probability and linked to an output variable. This creates a network of links that are ultimately linked to a set of equations for carbon (C) input and output to and from soil C pools. The probability-weighted results show that, globally, climate effects on NPP had the strongest impact on SOC stocks and the certainty of change after 75 years. Actual land use had the greatest effect locally because the assumed certainty of land use change per unit area was small. The probability-weighted contribution of climate to decomposition was greatest in the humid tropics because of greater absolute effects on decomposition fractions at higher temperatures. In contrast, climate effects on decomposition fractions were small in cold regions. Differences in decomposition rates between contemporary and future climate were greatest in arid subtropical regions because of projected strong increases in precipitation. Warming in boreal and arctic regions increased NPP, balancing or outweighing potential losses from thawing of permafrost. Across contrasting NPP scenarios, tropical mountain forests were identified as hotspots of future highly certain C losses. Global soil C mass will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if NPP increases due to carbon dioxide fertilization. At a certainty

  9. GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

    2012-01-01

    We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

  10. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  11. An empirical model of global climate - Part 1: Reduced impact of volcanoes upon consideration of ocean circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canty, T.; Mascioli, N. R.; Smarte, M.; Salawitch, R. J.

    2012-09-01

    Observed reductions in Earth's surface temperature following explosive volcanic eruptions have been used as a proxy for geo-engineering of climate by the artificial enhancement of stratospheric sulfate. Earth cools following major eruptions due to an increase in the reflection of sunlight caused by a dramatic enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden. Significant global cooling has been observed following the four major eruptions since 1900: Santa María, Mount Agung, El Chichón, and Mount Pinatubo, leading IPCC (2007) to state "major volcanic eruptions can thus cause a drop in global mean surface temperature of about half a degree Celsius that can last for months and even years". We use a multiple linear regression model applied to the global surface temperature anomaly to suggest that exchange of heat between the atmosphere and ocean, driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), has been a factor in the decline of global temperature following these eruptions. The veracity of this suggestion depends on whether the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) truly represents a proxy for the strength of the AMOC and the precise quantification of global cooling due to volcanoes depends on how the AMO is detrended. If the AMO is detrended using anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, we find that surface cooling attributed to Mount Pinatubo, using the Hadley Centre/University of East Anglia surface temperature record, maximizes at 0.15 °C globally and 0.35 °C over land. These values are about a factor of 2 less than found when the AMO is neglected in the model and quite a bit lower than the canonical 0.5 °C cooling usually attributed to Pinatubo. The AMO had begun to decrease prior to the four major eruptions, suggesting that exchange of heat between the atmosphere and ocean due to variations in the strength of the AMOC drives the climate system, rather than responds to volcanic perturbations. The

  12. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  13. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  14. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline underlying socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  15. Global climate feedbacks

    SciTech Connect

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  16. FY 2002 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRA Goal 6: Reducing Global and Transboundary Environmental Risks

    Objective 6.2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Sub-Objective 6.2.3: Global Climate Change Research

    Activity F55 - Assessing the Consequences of Global Change on Ecosystem Health

    NRMRL

    R...

  17. Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system. Part II: boreal winter and spring seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Haiqin; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2014-03-01

    We examine the Florida Climate Institute-Florida State University Seasonal Hindcast (FISH50) skill at a relatively high (50 km grid) resolution two tiered Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) for boreal winter and spring seasons at zero and one season lead respectively. The AGCM in FISH50 is forced with bias corrected forecast sea surface temperature averaged from two dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The comparison of the hindcast skills of precipitation and surface temperature from FISH50 with the coupled ocean-atmosphere models reveals that the probabilistic skill is nearly comparable in the two types of forecast systems (with some improvements in FISH50 outside of the global tropics). Furthermore the drop in skill in going from zero lead (boreal winter) to one season lead (boreal spring) is also similar in FISH50 and the coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Both the forecast systems also show that surface temperature hindcasts have more skill than the precipitation hindcasts and that land based precipitation hindcasts have slightly lower skill than the corresponding hindcasts over the ocean.

  18. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  19. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  20. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  1. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  2. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  3. Global high resolution climate reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Feser, Frauke; Zahn, Matthias; von Storch, Hans; Rast, Sebastian

    2014-05-01

    Long-term reanalysis products represent an important data source for numerous climate studies. However, their coarse spatial resolution for data sets spanning the last more than 50 years and well known inhomogeneities in space and time make it difficult to derive changes in meteorological variables over time. We therefore use spectral nudging technique to down-scale the global reanalysis data to a finer resolution with a general global circulation model. With this technique the new calculated higher resolved global model fields are attracted to the large-scale state of the coarse resolution reanalysis. Besides the conservation of large-scale atmospheric information and the resulting finer topography, a surplus in contents of information in meteorological phenomena of small spatial extensions is expected. Following this strategy a simulation with the global high-resolution atmospheric model ECHAM6 (T255L95), developed by MPI-M Hamburg, will be started by spectrally nudging NCEP1 reanalysis for the time period from 1948 until 2013. Selected wavelengths of more than 1000 km of vorticity, divergence, temperature and the logarithm of the surface pressure will be imposed onto the simulated GCM counterparts at levels above 750 hPa. SST and sea ice distribution are taken from the NCEP1 data set. These simulations enable the investigation of long-term changes in meteorological phenomena; the focus is put here on intense storms. Various horizontal wavelength selections and associated vertical profiles in the strength of nudging were tested. The temporarily best configuration resulted in large time correlations for 2m-temperature and 10m wind speed at several selected locations in Germany in comparison to observations. Correlations were highest for extra-tropical regions, while over the western part of the Pacific and Indian Ocean relative low time correlations were found. In a continuing study meteorological quantities at different levels and the influences of the nudging

  4. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  5. Global Air Quality and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Horowitz, Larry W.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Josse, Batrice; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; OConnor, Fiona M.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Shindell, Drew Todd; Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  6. Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wofsy, Steven C.

    2004-11-01

    Kirill Kondratyev and his colleagues present an unusual look at global change issues, with particular emphasis on quantitative models that can capture diverse aspects of the complete Earth system-vegetation, atmosphere, oceans, and human beings. The focus is on the global carbon cycle as a prime indicator of global environmental stresses. It includes some remarkably sharp, and insightful critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol and IPCC activity, and provides citations to a large sampling of Russian-language papers mostly unknown elsewhere. The critique of current policy trends is, in many respects, the most interesting part of the book. The authors are skeptical of claims about attribution of recent climate trends to human intervention, but devastating in their demolition of the ``skeptics'' views that nothing is seriously wrong in the global environmental system. They convincingly bring to bear the most telling observations and facts to make these arguments compelling and clarifying.

  7. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  8. Global distribution of soil organic carbon, based on the Harmonized World Soil Database - Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land-use and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köchy, M.; Don, A.; van der Molen, M. K.; Freibauer, A.

    2014-09-01

    Global biosphere models vary greatly in their projections of future changes of global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and aggregated global SOC masses in response to climate change. We estimated the certainty (likelihood) and quantity of increases and decreases on a half-degree grid. We assessed the effect of changes in controlling factors, including net primary productivity (NPP), litter quality, soil acidity, water-saturation, depth of permafrost, land use, temperature, and aridity, in a temporally implicit model that uses categorized driver variables associated by probabilities (Bayesian Network). The probability-weighted results show that, globally, climate effects on NPP had the strongest impact on SOC stocks and the certainty of change after 75 years. Actual land use had the greatest effect locally because the assumed certainty of land use change per unit area was small. The probability-weighted contribution of climate to decomposition was greatest in the humid tropics because of greater absolute effects on decomposition fractions at higher temperatures. In contrast, climate effects on decomposition fractions were small in cold regions. Differences in decomposition rates between contemporary and future climate were greatest in arid subtropical regions because of projected strong increases in precipitation. Warming in boreal and arctic regions increased NPP, balancing or outweighing potential losses from thawing of permafrost. Across contrasting NPP scenarios tropical mountain forests were identified as hotspots of future highly certain C losses. Global soil C mass will increase by 1% with a certainty of 75% if NPP increases due to carbon-dioxide fertilization. At a certainty level of 75%, soil C mass will not change if CO2-induced increase of NPP is limited by nutrients.

  9. Climate science: Misconceptions of global catastrophe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-04-01

    American attitudes to changing weather, and therefore to climate change, have been analysed on the basis of US migration patterns since the 1970s. The findings have implications for the success of global climate policies. See Letter p.357

  10. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  11. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

  12. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  13. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change'' is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany CO{sub 2}-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced Co{sub 2}, changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 12 months has proceeded in several directions.

  14. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses research activities conducted during the period 15 January 1992--14 December 1992. Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change is concerned with investigating the hypothesis that changes in surface thermal and hydrological forcing of the North Atlantic, changes that might be expected to accompany C0[sub 2]-induced global warming, could result in ocean-atmosphere interactions' exerting a positive feedback on the climate system. Because the North Atlantic is the source of much of the global ocean's reservoir of deep water, and because this deep water could sequester large amounts of anthropogenically produced C0[sub 2], changes in the rate of deep-water production are important to future climates. Since deep-water Production is controlled, in part, by the annual cycle of the atmospheric forcing of the North Atlantic, and since this forcing depends strongly on both hydrological and thermal processes as well as the windstress, there is the potential for feedback between the relatively short-term response of the atmosphere to changing radiative forcing and the longer-term processes in the oceans. Work over the past 11 months has proceeded according to the continuation discussion of last January and several new results have arisen.

  15. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ISOPRENE EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emission of isoprene from vegetation affects tropospheric chemistry at the regional and global scales. rojected global climate change will potentially alter emission rates, with corresponding influences on concentrations of ozone and other radiatively important trace gases. rogre...

  16. Shedding LITE on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    O`Connor, L.

    1995-04-01

    This article describes the Space Shuttle Discovery mission to carry a lidar-based sensing system that measured cloud formation and atmospheric conditions and transmitted the data to ground sites in 20 countries. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE), a laser-based sensing system carried roughly 160 miles above the earth in the cargo bay of the Space Shuttle Discovery. In the mission, which ran for 10 days last September, the LITE instrument used lidar (light identification, detection, and ranging) for the first time ever to measure cloud cover and atmospheric conditions. This data, which the system transmitted to ground sites, is expected to provide new insights into how clouds affect global climate.

  17. Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

  18. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  19. Carbon dioxide effects research and assessment program. A comprehensive plan. Part I. The global carbon cycle and climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide

    SciTech Connect

    Slade, David H.

    1980-08-01

    Initial plans for research of the carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) and climate issue were prepared in 1978 and were reviewed extensively at that time by federal agencies and members of the scientific community. Since then the plans have been used to guide early phases of the Department of Energy's and the nation's efforts related to this issue. This document represents a revision of the 1978 plan to (a) reflect recent ideas and strategies for carbon cycle research, and (b) expand the scope of research on climatic responses to increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO/sub 2/. The revised plan takes into account a number of investigations already being supported by various agencies, and it attempts to build on or add to existing research where there is a crucial need for information directly related to the CO/sub 2/ issue. It should be recognized that this document is the first section of a comprehensive plan on the overall consequences of increasing concentrations of CO/sub 2/, and includes guidelines for research on the Global Carbon Cycle and Climatic Effects of Increasing CO/sub 2/.

  20. Climate Change. A Global Threat to Cardiopulmonary Health

    PubMed Central

    Thurston, George D.; Balmes, John R.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2014-01-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  1. Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

    PubMed

    Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2014-03-01

    Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies. PMID:24400619

  2. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  3. Classroom Climate, Global Knowledge, Global Attitudes, Political Attitudes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blankenship, Glen

    1990-01-01

    Examines how an open classroom climate relates to effective global education. Looks at gender and race differences, and identifies attributes of open classrooms. Administers questionnaires to 202 students enrolled in an international studies program. Finds a moderate positive correlation between classroom climate and student political attitudes.…

  4. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  5. Impact of solar panels on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Aixue; Levis, Samuel; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Washington, Warren M.; Oleson, Keith W.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; He, Mingqiong; Strand, Warren G.

    2016-03-01

    Regardless of the harmful effects of burning fossil fuels on global climate, other energy sources will become more important in the future because fossil fuels could run out by the early twenty-second century given the present rate of consumption. This implies that sooner or later humanity will rely heavily on renewable energy sources. Here we model the effects of an idealized large-scale application of renewable energy on global and regional climate relative to a background climate of the representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6; ref. ). We find that solar panels alone induce regional cooling by converting incoming solar energy to electricity in comparison to the climate without solar panels. The conversion of this electricity to heat, primarily in urban areas, increases regional and global temperatures which compensate the cooling effect. However, there are consequences involved with these processes that modulate the global atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in regional precipitation.

  6. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  7. Notes on global climate and ocean currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigmatulin, R. I.

    2012-02-01

    The problems related to the role of both natural and anthropogenic factors in global climate change are considered. The role of ocean circulation in the Earth's global thermodynamic processes is qualitatively analyzed. The balances of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and in the ocean and the effect of anthropogenic factors are analyzed. The requirements for new-generation models of the Earth's climate are formulated.

  8. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), temperature (MAT) and runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP) and runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments. Based on 100

  9. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  10. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  11. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  12. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    PubMed

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. PMID:26442433

  13. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S., III; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  14. Using the Global Electric Circuit to monitor global climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, C. G.

    2013-12-01

    The global atmospheric electric circuit describes the global link between fair weather electric fields and currents measured at the Earth's surface, and the generator of these fields and currents in regions of stormy weather. Ever since the 1920s we have known about the global nature of these electric parameters, which appear to vary as a function of universal time (UT) and not local time (LT). It was also shown in the late 1920s that the "batteries" of the GEC are related to thunderstorm activity around the globe, that produce a clear global diurnal cycle due to the longitudinal distribution of the tropical landmasses. Due to the global nature of these electric fields and currents, the GEC supplies perhaps the only global geophysical index that can be measured at a single location on the Earth's surface, representing global electrical activity on the planet. The GEC can be broken down into a DC (direct current) part, and an AC (alternating current) part. Due to the global nature of the electric circuit it has been proposed by some to use geo-electric indices as proxies for changes in the global climate. If global warming results in changes in thunderstorm distribution, number and/or intensity, the GEC may allow us to monitor these changes from only a few ground stations. The advantages and disadvantages of using the GEC to monitor climate change will be presented together with some examples of how the global electric circuit has already been used to monitor changes in the Earth's climate.

  15. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  16. The global climate of December 1992-February 1993. Part 2: Large-scale variability across the tropical western Pacific during TOGA COARE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutzler, D. S.; Kiladis, G. N.; Meehl, G. A.; Weickmann, K. M.; Wheeler, M.

    1994-01-01

    Recently, scientists from more than a dozen countries carried out the field phase of a project called the Coupled-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE), devoted to describing the ocean-atmosphere system of the western Pacific near-equatorial warm pool. The project was conceived, organized, and funded under the auspices of the International Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program. Although COARE consisted of several field phases, including a year-long atmospheric enhanced monitoring period (1 July 1992 -- 30 June 1993), the heart of COARE was its four-month Intensive Observation Period (IOP) extending from 1 Nov. 1992 through 28 Feb. 1993. An overview of large-scale variability during COARE is presented. The weather and climate observed in the IOP is placed into context with regard to large-scale, low-frequency fluctuations of the ocean-atmosphere system. Aspects of tropical variability beginning in Aug. 1992 and extending through Mar. 1993, with some sounding data for Apr. 1993 are considered. Variability over the large-scale sounding array (LSA) and the intensive flux array (IFA) is emphasized.

  17. Global versus local effects on climate change in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, Heiko; Müller, Markus; Mannig, Birgit

    2015-10-01

    Regional climate change arises from two processes which, in the real climate system, cannot be separated from each other: local radiative forcing and advection of air masses from regions which themselves have been subject to climate change. In this study, we present an experimental design based on a regional climate model allowing for the assessment of global and local effects on future climate change in Asia. We carry out two runs which are characterized by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations within the model domain, but one (the control run) is one-way nested into a global control run at the lateral and oceanic boundaries while the other (the forced run) is one-way nested into a consistently forced global simulation. The aim is to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change in a regional context. It turns out that temperature and precipitation changes in Asia are indeed mostly related to changes in the advected air masses which enter along the lateral boundaries. Regionally confined greenhouse forcing only affects the atmospheric heating rate while precipitation and atmospheric circulation features remain more or less unchanged. Temperature changes in the forced experiment are partly governed by warmer air masses penetrating the lateral boundaries and partly by a modification of atmospheric circulation processes, including a tendency towards a double-trough structure over Central Asia and changing temperature advection. The trend pattern of precipitation is much more heterogeneous in space but can partly be attributed to changes in horizontal wind divergence and vertical velocity.

  18. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  19. Global climate imprint on seismic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stutzmann, EléOnore; Schimmel, Martin; Patau, GenevièVe; Maggi, Alessia

    2009-11-01

    In the absence of earthquakes, oceanic microseisms are the strongest signals recorded by seismic stations. Using the GEOSCOPE global seismic network, we show that the secondary microseism spectra have global characteristics that depend on the station latitude and on the season. In both hemispheres, noise amplitude is larger during local winter, and close to the equator, noise amplitude is stable over the year. There is an excellent correlation between microseism amplitude variations over the year and changes in the highest wave areas. Considering the polarization of the secondary microseisms, we show that stations in the Northern Hemisphere and close to the equator record significant changes of the secondary microseism source azimuth over the year. During Northern Hemisphere summer, part or all of the sources are systematically located farther toward the south than during winter. Stations in French Guyana (MPG) and in Algeria (TAM) record microseisms generated several thousand kilometers away in the South Pacific Ocean and in the Indian Ocean, respectively. Thus, secondary microseism sources generated by ocean waves which originate in the Southern Hemisphere can be recorded by Northern Hemisphere stations when local sources are weak. We also show, considering a station close to Antarctica, that primary and secondary microseism noise amplitudes are strongly affected by changes of the sea ice floe and that sources of these microseisms are in different areas. Microseism recording can therefore be used to monitor climate changes.

  20. Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

  1. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  2. Public health impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Hales, S; Weinstein, P; Woodward, A

    1997-01-01

    The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally. PMID:9406290

  3. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  4. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  5. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  6. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Shakun, Jeremy D; Baker, Paul A; Bartlein, Patrick J; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M; Mix, Alan C; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Pahnke, Katharina; Russell, James M; Whitlock, Cathy; Adkins, Jess F; Blois, Jessica L; Clark, Jorie; Colman, Steven M; Curry, William B; Flower, Ben P; He, Feng; Johnson, Thomas C; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Markgraf, Vera; McManus, Jerry; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Moreno, Patricio I; Williams, John W

    2012-05-01

    Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth's climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. PMID:22331892

  7. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  8. Engineering change in global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, S.H.

    1996-12-31

    {open_quotes}With increased public focus on global warming and in the wake of the intense heat waves, drought, fires, and super-hurricanes that occurred in 1988 and 1989, interest in geoengineering has surged,{close_quotes} says Stephen H. Schneider, professor of biological science at Stanford University in Stanford, California. One scheme set forth in a National Research Council report proposes using 16-inch naval guns to fire aerosol shells into the stratosphere in hopes of offsetting {open_quotes}the radiative effects of increasing carbon dioxide,{close_quotes} Schneider says. Schneider, however, would prefer that we {open_quotes}seek measures that can cure our global {open_quote}addiction{close_quote} to polluting practices.{close_quotes} Rather than playing God, he says we should {open_quotes}stick to being human and pursue problem - solving methods currently within our grasp.{close_quotes} Such strategies include efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on automobiles.

  9. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. PMID:26504130

  10. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    SciTech Connect

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  11. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  12. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  13. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested. PMID:18991898

  14. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lúcio, F.

    2012-04-01

    Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

  15. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  16. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  17. Prioritizing Global Observations Along Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bojinski, Stephan; Richter, Carolin

    2010-12-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, housed within the World Meteorological Organization, released in August 2010 updated guidance for priority actions worldwide in support of observations of GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). This guidance states that full achievement of the recommendations in the 2010 Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos­138.pdf) is required to ensure that countries are able to understand and predict climate change and its impacts and manage their response throughout the 21st century and beyond. GCOS is sponsored by the United Nations and the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is an internationally coordinated network of observing systems and a program of activities that support and improve the network, which is designed to meet evolving national and international requirements for climate observations. One of the main objectives of GCOS is to sustain observations into the future to allow evaluation of how climate is changing, so that informed decisions can be made on prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. GCOS priorities are based on the belief that observations are crucial to supporting the research needed to refine understanding of the climate system and its changes, to initialize predictions on time scales out to decades, and to develop the models used to make these predictions and longer­term scenario-based projections. Observations are also needed to assess social and economic vulnerabilities and to support related actions needed across a broad range of societal sectors by underpinning emerging climate services.

  18. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21(st) century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20(th)-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21(st)-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world. PMID:24014154

  19. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  20. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  1. Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: regional and global model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Cook, Kerry H.

    2013-02-01

    A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4-2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail.

  2. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  3. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    PubMed

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  4. Deep solar minimum and global Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdel Hady, Ahmed

    2012-07-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its likely impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 100 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activities are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  5. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hady, Ahmed A.

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  6. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; Yoder, J. A.

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  7. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  8. Global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book is based on a symposium held in May 1990, sponsored by NASA, US EPA, and the North American Benthological Society. It focuses on the potential interactions between climate change and freshwater ecosystems. The assumption of global warming 2-5 degrees occurring in the next century was presented to the authors by the editors, and each author was asked to comment on how this warming might affect their particular system or process of interest. The book deals primarily with streams in the USA. Other chapters deal with the following topics: mechanisms driving global climate change; remote sensing; wetlands; lakes; general issues related to water resources and regional studies as they apply to flowing water.

  9. Radar altimetry and global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Dobson, E.B.; Monaldo, F.M.; Porter, D.L.; Robinson, A.R.; Kilgus, C.C.; Goldhirsh, J.; Glenn, S.M. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ )

    1992-09-01

    The use of satellite radar altimetry for monitoring global climatic variables is examined in the context of the altimeter for the Geosat Follow-On program. The requirements of studying climate and ocean circulation are described for the particular case of the North Atlantic, and the use of spaceborne altimetry is discussed for three measurement types. Altimeters measure sea-surface height and the ice edge to give data on mesoscale variability and circulation, interannual variability, and air-sea interactions. The altimeters for the Geosat program are expected to include orbit-determination systems for removal of the orbital signature and a radiometer for measuring water vapor. The altimeters are expected to be useful in studying ocean circulation and climate, and existing data support in situ measurements. Spaceborne radar altimetry can provide important data for understanding CO[sub 2] uptake, biogeochemical fluxes, and the thermocline conveyor belt. 30 refs.

  10. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  11. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dauncey, Guy

    This document presents 101 solutions to global climate change. These solutions are actions that are well suited to every level of society. This book creates awareness about global climate change. The history of Earth and the greenhouse effect are discussed, and explanations and solutions to global climate change are provided including traveling…

  12. Global fish production and climate change.

    PubMed

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change. PMID:18077405

  13. Using Updated Climate Accounting to Slow Global Warming Before 2035

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, T.

    2015-12-01

    The current and projected worsening of climate impacts make clear the urgency of limiting the global mean temperature to 2°C over preindustrial levels. But while mitigation policy today may slow global warming at the end of the century, it will not keep global warming within these limits. This failure arises in large part from the climate accounting system used to inform this policy, which does not factor in several scientific findings from the last two decades, including: The urgent need to slow global warming before 2035. This can postpone the time the +1.5°C limit is passed, and is the only way to avoid the most serious long-term climate disruptions. That while it may mitigate warming by the end of the century, reducing emissions of CO2 alone, according to UNEP/WMO[1], will do "little to mitigate warming over the next 20-30 years," and "may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfate [cooling] is reduced." That the only emissions reductions that can slow warming before 2035 are focused on short-lived climate pollutants. A small increase in current mitigation funding could fund these projects, the most promising of which target emissions in regional climate "hot spots" like the Arctic and India.[2] To ensure policies can effectively slow global warming before 2035, a new climate accounting system is needed. Such an updated system is being standardized in the USA,[3] and has been proposed for use in ISO standards. The key features of this updated system are: consideration of all climate pollutants and their multi-faceted climate effects; use of time horizons which prioritize mitigation of near-term warming; a consistent and accurate accounting for "biogenic" CO2; protocols ensuring that new scientific findings are incorporated; and a distinct accounting for emissions affecting regional "hot spots". This accounting system also considers environmental impacts outside of climate change, a feature necessary to identify "win-win" projects with climate benefits

  14. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts. PMID:21553952

  15. Fracking in the face of global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

    2015-12-01

    Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

  16. El Nino, volcanism, and global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Handler, P.; Andsager, K. )

    1994-03-01

    The June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines produced one of the greatest volcanic aerosols in the last hundred years. The estimated net decrease of radiation may have peaked at 10% in the tropics. What was the impact of the Pinatubo aerosol on regional and global climate Besides the expected net cooling of the average global surface temperature, correlation studies indicate that other types of climate anomalies may also be expected. These include the appearance of an El Nino event, decreased Indian monsoon rainfall, fewer tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean in 1991-1993, and normal to above normal winter rainfall in California in 1991/92, all of which were observed. A proposed physical mechanism for the almost-simultaneous occurrence of this constellation of climate anomalies is presented. The results of correlation studies between low-latitude volcanic aerosols and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation are presented in some detail as one example. The correlation between Indian monsoon rainfall and tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean is also shown and is updated for the most recent 5 years.

  17. Biological diversity, ecology, and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Jutro, P R

    1991-12-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Unlike classical public health issues and many environmental issues, their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat that may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. At the same time, awareness of the magnitude of current and impending losses of the world's biological diversity has increased. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. We are just beginning to grasp the meaning of this loss in terms of opportunity costs to human society and the less quantifiable losses associated with simplification of natural ecosystems. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results. PMID:1820260

  18. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Shope, R

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  19. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shope, R

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

  20. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    SciTech Connect

    Shope, R. )

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  1. Climate change: Global risks, challenges and decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBean, Gordon

    2012-05-01

    In 2009, world leaders at the 15th Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to the Copenhagen Accord, which states in the opening paragraph, "To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, we shall, recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change." This book addresses the key elements of that statement: On the basis of analyses of climate science, what is dangerous? Where does the 2°C come from? What are possible response measures, and can we hold at 2°C? What are the critical impacts and needs for adaptation? The book presents these issues in the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development and, most important, talks about the challenges.

  2. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  4. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  5. Global flood risk under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Dag; Eppert, Stefan; Morrow, Guy

    2013-04-01

    This session focuses on data, methodologies and models available to develop a global probabilistic flood/drought risk model based on stochastic precipitation and temperature simulations. We will introduce a new framework to compute flood/drought risk and compare this approach with other currently used methodologies. We will explore the spatial and temporal correlations present in historical data as well as the contributions of tropical cyclone precipitation to the overall risk. Based on the analysis of current flood/drought risk the authors with give an outlook how this newly developed framework can be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on weather related risks.

  6. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    PubMed

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

  7. COMMUNICATING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: INVESTIGATING MESSAGE STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNICATING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The research program is designed to generate findings that provide specific guidance to science communicators and government officials on how to best communicate knowledge about global climate change and other environmental issues to diverse lay audiences. Beyond providing gui...

  8. Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries

    SciTech Connect

    Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

    1990-01-01

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

  9. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  10. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

    PubMed

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

  11. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  12. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  13. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  14. Globally Gridded Satellite observations for climate studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knapp, K.R.; Ansari, S.; Bain, C.L.; Bourassa, M.A.; Dickinson, M.J.; Funk, C.; Helms, C.N.; Hennon, C.C.; Holmes, C.D.; Huffman, G.J.; Kossin, J.P.; Lee, H.-T.; Loew, A.; Magnusdottir, G.

    2011-01-01

    Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them that no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites exists, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multisatellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full-resolution geostationary data at ~10-km resolution at 3-hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in Network Common Data Format (netCDF) using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to process the data quickly and easily. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone.

  15. Sensitivity of Local Temperature CDFs to Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stainforth, D.; Chapman, S. C.; Watkins, N. W.

    2011-12-01

    The sensitivity of climate to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases at the global scale has been much studied [Knutti and Hegerl 2008, and references therein]. Scientific information to support climate change adaptation activities, however, is often sought at regional or local scales; the scales on which most adaptation decisions are made. Information on these scales is most often based on simulations of complex climate models [Murphy et al. 2009, Tebaldi et al. 2005] and have questionable reliability [Stainforth et al., 2007]. Rather than using data derived or obtained from models we focus on observational timeseries to evaluate the sensitivity of different parts of the local climatic distribution. Such an approach has many advantages: it avoids issues relating to model imperfections [Stainforth et al. 2007], it can be focused on decision relevant thresholds [e.g. Porter and Semenov, 2005], and it inherently integrates information relating to local climatic influences. Taking a timeseries of local daily temperatures for various locations across the United Kingdom we extract the changing cumulative distribution functions over time. We present a simple mathematical deconstruction of how two different observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural variability and/or the consequences of climate change. Using this deconstruction we analyse the changing shape of the distributions and thus the sensitivity of different quartiles of the distribution. These sensitivities are found to be both regionally consistent and geographically varying across the United Kingdom; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and South East England. We nevertheless find a common pattern of increased sensitivity in the 60th to 80th percentiles; above the mean but below the greatest extremes. The method has the potential to be applied to many other variables in addition to temperature and to

  16. Architecting next 30 years of climate monitoring from space with instructive examples from NPOESS and GCOS plus new rule-based decision tools: suggesting and promoting global collaborative paths forward (Part V)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmuth, Douglas B.; Bell, Raymond M.; Lentz, Christopher A.

    2013-10-01

    Collecting the earth's critical climate signatures over the next 30 years is an obvious priority for many world governments and international organizations. Implementing a solution requires bridging from today's scientific missions to `operational' constellations that are adequate to support the future demands of decision makers, scientific investigators and global users for trusted data.

  17. Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapunov, Valentin

    2010-05-01

    The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as

  18. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  19. 76 FR 41525 - Hewlett Packard Global Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life Cycles Management Unit Including...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-14

    ... Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life Cycles Management Unit, including teleworkers reporting to... Chain, Global Product Life Cycles Management Unit, including teleworkers reporting to Houston, Texas... Employment and Training Administration Hewlett Packard Global Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life...

  20. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2015-04-01

    sectors. Establishment of regional capacities through climate centres to support national institutional capacities is a major focus. The Proof of Concept will be replicated in other parts of the world to ensure worldwide improvements in climate services for the four priority areas to facilitate the reduction of society's vulnerability to climate-related hazards and the advancement of the key global development goals. To streamline and harness climate research and knowledge in support of GFCS implementation, regional research plans or agendas are being shaped in different regions. For example, a Climate Research for Development Agenda for Africa (CR4D) is being developed under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and in cooperation with the African Union Commission and other partners. Similarly, regional climate research priorities are being developed for Latin America and the Caribbean, following the WCRP Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean (Montevideo, March 2014). Availability of regional research plans or agendas would ensure more effective research and involvement of national experts in climate research activities.

  1. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): implementation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2013-04-01

    The Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress, held from 29 to 31 October 2012, adopted the Implementation Plan of the Global Framework for Climate Services, for the subsequent consideration by the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services, which will host its first session in July 2013. The Extraordinary Congress called for an immediate move to action, so that the work undertaken can result in activities on the ground which will benefit, in particular, vulnerable countries. The development of the GFCS through a broad consultation process accross the pillars of the GFCS (User Interface Platform; Observations and Monitoring; Climate Services Information System; Research, Modelling and Prediction; and Capacity Development) and the initial four priority areas (Agriculture and Food Security; Water; Health and Disaster Risk Reductio) identified a number of challenges, which in some cases constitute barries to implementation: - Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services; - Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and managed climate-related risks and opportunities; - Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe; - Partnerships: mechanisms to enhance interaction between climate users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed; - Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications science, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information to support decision-making is often insufficient to match user requirements. To address these challenges, the Implementation Plan of the GFCS identified initial implementation projects and activities. The initial priority is to establish the leadership and management capacity to take the GFCS forward at all levels. Capacity

  2. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  3. Global Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamerius, James

    2013-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions and result in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship does not account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: "cold-dry" and "humid-rainy". For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11-12 g/kg and 18-21 °C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. Based on these findings, we develop Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) models forced by daily weather observations of specific humidity and precipitation that simulate the diversity of seasonal influenza signals worldwide.

  4. Global Climate Change and the Wildlands of Montana: Promoting Scientific Understanding for K-12 Educators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graumlich, L. J.; Simonsen, L. M.

    2004-12-01

    The complexities and uncertainties associated with the science of global climate change is a barrier to the implementation of global change into K-12 classrooms. This issue is part of a larger conundrum where by teachers who are not well-versed in the content of an emerging science field are less likely to incorporate that topic into their curriculum. As such, it is not surprising that the K-12 community has been slow to embrace global climate change as a curriculum element, given that science underlying global climate change is interdisciplinary and replete with new discoveries, complex models, and competing theories. Faculty members associated with the Big Sky Institute have experimented with ways to promote collaboration between researchers and educators to enhance scientific literacy. In 2004, with funding from the US Environmental Protection Agency and private foundations, we implemented a five-day, field based professional development workshop for middle and high school teachers that focused on the research underlying EPA's Climate Change, Wildlife and Wildlands curriculum. A primary objective of the overall project is to promote one-on-one engagement of teachers with researchers whose work forms the basis of the content of the curriculum. Further, we seek to assess the degree to which increased content knowledge leads to incorporation of global climate change content into classrooms and curricula. During the workshop, we focused on two broad research findings, namely: 1) Global climate change is systemically pervasive such that even wildlands (i.e., unmanaged, pristine parks and reserves) are or potentially will be altered by global climate change. 2) At the same time, natural climate variability may enhance or mask human-induced climate impacts on wildlands and wildlife. In addition, we emphasized two broadly framed "ways of thinking" about global climate change, namely: 1) Wildlands can be used to detect and measure the impacts of human-induced climate

  5. Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

    2000-01-01

    The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

  6. Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1994-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

  7. Proceedings of the global climate change and freshwater ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Firth, P.; Fisher, S.G.

    1992-01-01

    This book discusses global climate change which is a certainty. The Earth's climate has never remained static for long and the prospect for human-accelerated climate change in the near future appears likely. Freshwater systems are intimately connected to climate in several ways. They may influence, or even drive, global atmospheric processes affecting climate (e.g., biogenic gas emissions from freshwater wetlands). They may be sensitive early indicators of climate change because they integrate the atmospheric and terrestrial events occurring in their catchments. And, of course, they will be affected by climate change. Freshwater hydrological processes, freshwater resources, and freshwater ecosystems have historically responded to climatic shifts and we fully expect that they will continue to do so. Climate-induced changes may include altered water temperatures, runoff, nutrient flux, discharge, flow regime, lake and aquifer levels, water quality, ice cover, suspended load, primary and secondary production, trophic dynamics, organism ranges, and migration patterns.

  8. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels. PMID:25403380

  9. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  10. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  11. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  12. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  13. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Lehmann, Johannes C.; Joseph, Stephen

    2010-08-10

    Production of biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass), in combination with its storage in soils, has been suggested as a means to abate anthropogenic climate change, while simultaneously increasing crop yields. The climate mitigation potential stems primarily from the highly recalcitrant nature of biochar, which slows the rate at which photosynthetically fixed carbon is returned to the atmosphere. Significant uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity, and sustainability of biochar for carbon capture and storage when scaled to the global level. Previous estimates, based on simple assumptions, vary widely. Here we show that, subject to strict environmental and modest economic constraints on biomass procurement and biochar production methods, annual net emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O could be reduced by 1.1 - 1.9 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce)/yr (7 - 13% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1Pg = 1 Gt). Over one century, cumulative net emissions of these gases could be reduced by 72-140 Pg CO2-Ce. The lower end of this range uses currently untapped residues and wastes; the upper end requires substantial alteration to global biomass management, but would not endanger food security, habitat or soil conservation. Half the avoided emissions are due to the net C sequestered as biochar, one-quarter to replacement of fossil-fuel energy by pyrolysis energy, and one-quarter to avoided emissions of CH4 and N2O. The total mitigation potential is 18-30% greater than if the same biomass were combusted to produce energy. Despite limited data for the decomposition rate of biochar in soils and the effects of biochar additions on soil greenhouse-gas fluxes, sensitivity within realistic ranges of these parameters is small, resulting in an uncertainty of ±8% (±1 s.d.) in our estimates. Achieving these mitigation results requires, however, that biochar production be performed using only low-emissions technologies and feedstocks obtained

  14. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    PubMed

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being. PMID:26886790

  15. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  16. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  17. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-12-31

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs.

  18. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    PubMed

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  19. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  20. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: GOVERNMENT OF CANADA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Government of Canada Climate Change Site was developed to inform Canadians about climate change and how it affects our environment. The site explains what the Government of Canada is doing about climate change and how individuals, communities, businesses, industries, and ever...

  1. Cooperation and discord in global climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keohane, Robert O.; Victor, David G.

    2016-06-01

    Effective mitigation of climate change will require deep international cooperation, which is much more difficult to organize than the shallow coordination observed so far. Assessing the prospects for effective joint action on climate change requires an understanding of both the structure of the climate change problem and national preferences for policy action. Preferences have become clearer in light of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties in December 2015. Although deep cooperation remains elusive, many partial efforts could build confidence and lead to larger cuts in emissions. This strategy of decentralized policy coordination will not solve the climate problem, but it could lead incrementally to deeper cooperation.

  2. Health, fairness and New Zealand's contribution to global post-2020 climate change action.

    PubMed

    Bennett, Hayley; Macmillan, Alex; Jones, Rhys

    2015-05-29

    Health and wellbeing have been largely ignored in discussions around climate change targets and action to date. The current public consultation around New Zealand's post-2020 climate target is an opportunity for health professionals to highlight the health implications of climate change. Without urgent global efforts to bring down global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, the world is heading towards high levels of global warming, which will have devastating impacts on human health and wellbeing. New Zealand's action to bring down GHG emissions (as part of the global effort) has potential to improve health and reduce costs on the health sector, if health and fairness are put at the centre of policies to address climate change. New Zealand should commit to at least 40 % reductions in GHG emissions by 2030, and zero carbon emissions before 2050, with healthy and fair policies across sectors to enable reaching these targets. PMID:26117506

  3. Spatiotemporal change in geographical distribution of global climate types in the context of climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xianliang; Yan, Xiaodong

    2014-08-01

    After standardizing global land climate gridded data from the Climatic Research Unit TS (time-series) 3.1 dataset for the period 1901-2009, cluster analysis is used to objectively classify world climates into 14 climate types. These climate types establish a baseline classification map and the types are named according to Köppen-Geiger climate classifications. Although the cluster analysis and Köppen classification methods are very different, the distributions of climate types obtained by the two methods are similar. Moreover, the climate types we identify also coincide well with their corresponding vegetation types. Thus, cluster analysis can be used as an effective alternative to the Köppen classification method for classifying world climate types. The spatial and temporal changes in geographical distribution of global climate types were investigated in 25-year intervals, and Cohen's kappa coefficient is used to detect agreement between the periods. Globally, although an obvious trend in increasing global temperature is found, distribution of climate types overall show no distinct changes over the periods. However, at the regional scale, spatial change in distribution of climate types is evident in South America and Africa. In South America, larger areas of the "fully humid equatorial rainforest" (Af) and "equatorial savannah with dry winter" (Aw) climate types have changed types. In Africa, changes mainly occurred in the Af, "equatorial savannah with dry summer" (As), Aw, "steppe climate" (BS), and "desert climate" (BW) climate types. Moreover, some climate types, including Af, "equatorial monsoon" (Am), BS, BW, and "tundra climate" (ET), were susceptible to temporal climate changes, especially in the period 1976-2009.

  4. Global Climate Responses to Anthropogenic Groundwater Exploitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Y.; Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, a groundwater exploitation scheme is incorporated into the earth system model, Community Earth System Model 1.2.0 (CESM1.2.0), which is called CESM1.2_GW, and the climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal are then investigated on global scale. The scheme models anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption, which are then divided into agricultural irrigation, industrial use and domestic use. A group of 41-year ensemble groundwater exploitation simulations with six different initial conditions, and a group of ensemble control simulations without exploitation are conducted using the developed model CESM1.2_GW with water supplies and demands estimated. The results reveal that the groundwater exploitation and water consumption cause drying effects on soil moisture in deep layers and wetting effects in upper layers, along with a rapidly declining groundwater table in Central US, Haihe River Basin in China and Northern India and Pakistan where groundwater extraction are most severe in the world. The atmosphere also responds to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation. Cooling effects on lower troposphere appear in large areas of North China Plain and of Northern India and Pakistan. Increased precipitation occurs in Haihe River Basin due to increased evapotranspiration from irrigation. Decreased precipitation occurs in Northern India because water vapor here is taken away by monsoon anomalies induced by anthropogenic alteration of groundwater. The local reducing effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on total terrestrial water storage evinces that water resource is unsustainable with the current high exploitation rate. Therefore, a balance between slow groundwater withdrawal and rapid human economic development must be achieved to maintain a sustainable water resource, especially in over-exploitation regions such as Central US, Northern China, India and Pakistan.

  5. Global lightning activity and climate change. Ph.D. Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCM`s) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. The first chapter introduces a simple parameterization used to simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. The second chapter deals with a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. The third chapter deals with the modelling of lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. This chapter presents results from the model`s control run. The fourth chapter presents two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9 C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (4.2 C global warming). The results imply a 24% / 30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The fifth chapter considers the possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming. The results show that the earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could possibly supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The sixth and final chapter looks at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires.

  6. Statistical Properties of Downscaled CMIP3 Global Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duffy, P.; Tyan, S.; Thrasher, B.; Maurer, E. P.; Tebaldi, C.

    2009-12-01

    Spatial downscaling of global climate model projections adds physically meaningful spatial detail, and brings the results down to a scale that is more relevant to human and ecological systems. Statistical/empirical downscaling methods are computationally inexpensive, and thus can be applied to large ensembles of global climate model projections. Here we examine some of the statistical properties of a large ensemble of empirically downscale global climate projections. The projections are the CMIP3 global climate model projections that were performed by modeling groups around the world and archived by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Downscaled versions of 112 of these simulations were created on 2007 and are archived at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html. The downscaling methodology employed, “Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling” (BCSD), includes a correction of GCM biases relative to observations during a historical reference period, as well as empirical downscaling to grid scale of ~12 km. We analyzed these downscaled projections and some of the original global model results to assess effects of the bias correction and downscaling on the statistical properties of the ensemble. We also assessed uncertainty in the climate response to increased greenhouse gases from initial conditions relative to the uncertainty introduced by choice of global climate model.

  7. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  8. Modeling the Martian Atmosphere with the LMD Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forget, F.; Millour, E.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lebonnois, S.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Meslin, P.-Y.; Montabone, L.; Spiga, A.; Hourdin, F.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gilli, G.

    2008-11-01

    The Global Climate Model developed at LMD (Paris) in collaboration with IAA (Spain), AOPP and the OU (UK) has been improved. It is used for many applications (water, dust, CO2, radon cycles, photochemistry, thermosphere, ionosphere, etc.).

  9. GLOBAL CLIMATIC ISSUES IN THE COASTAL WIDER CARIBBEAN REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Interest among public, governmental, and scientific communities about 'global' climatic warming and the associated meteorological and oceanographic effects, is a topic of very considerable concern (McElroy, 1989; Mitchell, 1989). uring the past several years, numerous national an...

  10. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  11. Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bills, Bruce G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

  12. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  13. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  14. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change and related global concerns dominate the current environmental agenda as evidenced by the recent wave of articles, symposia workshops, and other scientific and lay forms dealing with this issue. hile most atmospheric scientists agree that a climate change "signal" ...

  15. CONSTABLE: A Global Climate Model for Classroom Use.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cerveny, Randall S.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Described is the global climate model CONSTABLE (Climatic One-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Annual Balance of Latitudinal Energy), which can be used in undergraduate and graduate level climatology courses. Classroom exercises that can be used with the model are also included. (RM)

  16. CRISM's Global Mapping of Mars, Part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    After a year in Mars orbit, CRISM has taken enough images to allow the team to release the first parts of a global spectral map of Mars to the Planetary Data System (PDS), NASA's digital library of planetary data.

    CRISM's global mapping is called the 'multispectral survey.' The team uses the word 'survey' because a reason for gathering this data set is to search for new sites for targeted observations, high-resolution views of the surface at 18 meters per pixel in 544 colors. Another reason for the multispectral survey is to provide contextual information. Targeted observations have such a large data volume (about 200 megabytes apiece) that only about 1% of Mars can be imaged at CRISM's highest resolution. The multispectral survey is a lower data volume type of observation that fills in the gaps between targeted observations, allowing scientists to better understand their geologic context.

    The global map is built from tens of thousands of image strips each about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) wide and thousands of kilometers long. During the multispectral survey, CRISM returns data from only 72 carefully selected wavelengths that cover absorptions indicative of the mineral groups that CRISM is looking for on Mars. Data volume is further decreased by binning image pixels inside the instrument to a scale of about 200 meters (660 feet) per pixel. The total reduction in data volume per square kilometer is a factor of 700, making the multispectral survey manageable to acquire and transmit to Earth. Once on the ground, the strips of data are mosaicked into maps. The multispectral survey is too large to show the whole planet in a single map, so the map is divided into 1,964 'tiles,' each about 300 kilometers (186 miles) across. There are three versions of each tile, processed to progressively greater levels to strip away the obscuring effects of the dusty atmosphere and to highlight mineral variations in surface materials.

    This is the first version of tile

  17. CRISM's Global Mapping of Mars, Part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    After a year in Mars orbit, CRISM has taken enough images to allow the team to release the first parts of a global spectral map of Mars to the Planetary Data System (PDS), NASA's digital library of planetary data.

    CRISM's global mapping is called the 'multispectral survey.' The team uses the word 'survey' because a reason for gathering this data set is to search for new sites for targeted observations, high-resolution views of the surface at 18 meters per pixel in 544 colors. Another reason for the multispectral survey is to provide contextual information. Targeted observations have such a large data volume (about 200 megabytes apiece) that only about 1% of Mars can be imaged at CRISM's highest resolution. The multispectral survey is a lower data volume type of observation that fills in the gaps between targeted observations, allowing scientists to better understand their geologic context.

    The global map is built from tens of thousands of image strips each about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) wide and thousands of kilometers long. During the multispectral survey, CRISM returns data from only 72 carefully selected wavelengths that cover absorptions indicative of the mineral groups that CRISM is looking for on Mars. Data volume is further decreased by binning image pixels inside the instrument to a scale of about 200 meters (660 feet) per pixel. The total reduction in data volume per square kilometer is a factor of 700, making the multispectral survey manageable to acquire and transmit to Earth. Once on the ground, the strips of data are mosaicked into maps. The multispectral survey is too large to show the whole planet in a single map, so the map is divided into 1,964 'tiles,' each about 300 kilometers (186 miles) across. There are three versions of each tile, processed to progressively greater levels to strip away the obscuring effects of the dusty atmosphere and to highlight mineral variations in surface materials.

    This is the first version of tile

  18. Electric utility industry addresses issue of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-04-01

    Global climate change is a high priority issue for the electric utility industry, and careful consideration is under-way of numerous options to deal effectively with the potential consequences. The earth's temperature has risen about 0.5 degrees Celsius during the past 100 years. It is not known, however, whether this warning is part of a natural cycle or whether man-made emissions will cause additional warning. Scientists speculate the earth's temperature would have to rise another four to five degrees Celsius for significant adverse effects to result from global warming. The utility industry plans to give careful consideration to an array of supply and demand options, he said. Reliable and affordable electric generation is imperative to our society and will be increasingly important in helping societies adapt if global warning does occur. The nation needs a balanced energy mix to ensure an adequate energy supply. The development of new clean coal burning technologies is essential and should be accelerated to increase efficiency and minimize atmospheric emissions. The utility industry is also looking at processes that will reduce CO{sub 2} emissions in the industrial and transportation sectors.

  19. Quantifying the Climate Regulation Values of Ecosystems Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; DeLucia, E. H.; Snyder, P. K.; LeBauer, D.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in the climate system, regulating climate through both biogeochemical (greenhouse-gas regulation) and biophysical (regulation of water and energy) mechanisms. However, initiatives aimed at climate protection through land management account only for biogeochemical mechanisms. By ignoring biophysical processes, these initiatives risk promoting suboptimal solutions. Our recently proposed metric for the climate regulation value (CRV) of ecosystems provides one potential approach to quantifying how biogeochemical and biophysical effects combine to determine the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. In order to provide broadly accessible estimates of CRV for ecosystems worldwide, we have created an online ecosystem climate regulation services calculator with global coverage. The CRV calculator incorporates global maps of climatically significant ecosystem properties (for example, biomass, soil carbon, and evapotranspiration) to provide location-specific CRV estimates. We use this calculator to derive values for forests globally, revealing that CRV commonly differs meaningfully from values derived based purely on carbon storage. In the face of increasing land-use pressures and the increasingly urgent need for climate change mitigation, the CRV calculator has the potential to facilitate improved quantification of ecosystem climate regulation services by scientists, conservationists, policy makers, and the private sector.

  20. How climate change will exacerbate global water scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel; Clark, Douglas; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten

    2013-04-01

    Water scarcity, in particular the dearth of renewable water resources for agricultural, industrial and domestic purposes, severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Ex- pected future population changes will, in most countries as well as globally, increase water scarcity through increased demand. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. The magnitude and pattern of hydrological changes however depend on complex interactions between climate, biosphere, and surface properties. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by five global climate models (GCMs) in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show that climate change is very likely to exacerbate the global water scarcity problem significantly. In particular, the simulation ensemble average projects that beyond a global warming of 1°C above 1980-2010 levels (approx. 1.5°C above pre-industrial), each additional degree of warming confronts an additional 7-10% of global population with a severe (>20%) decrease in water resources. A warming of 3°C is projected to enhance the global increase in absolute water scarcity, expected from population changes alone, by about 25%, together amounting to more 13% (5-30%) of the world population living at less than 500m3 annual runoff per capita by the end of this century. The projected impacts at different levels of global warming are similar across different climate change scenarios, indicating that dependence on the rate of climate change is low. At the same time, the study highlights significant uncertainties associated with these projections, resulting both from the spread among climate projections and from the GHMs.

  1. Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, J. (Editor); Rossow, W. (Editor); Fung, I. (Editor)

    1993-01-01

    A workshop on Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks was held February 3-4, 1992, at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies to discuss the measurements required to interpret long-term global temperature changes, to critique the proposed contributions of a series of small satellites (Climsat), and to identify needed complementary monitoring. The workshop concluded that long-term (several decades) of continuous monitoring of the major climate forcings and feedbacks is essential for understanding long-term climate change.

  2. The Global Change Information System (GCIS): A Clearinghouse For Climatic Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldstein, J.; Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.

    2013-12-01

    An overview of how the Global Change Information System (GCIS), forthcoming in March 2014, satisfies the terms of the White House Office of Science Technology and Policy (OSTP)'s memorandum. This portal is being developed by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), an interagency program coordinating Federal government climate research. Initially, it will support the traceability of the findings and figures presented the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) by linking to their supporting scientific data and publications. Eventually, GCIS will grow beyond the NCA, increasing public access to all research and data relevant for global change across the USGCRP through its curation of the data underlying climatic studies. As a part of the curation process, GCIS efforts will also be geared towards identifying assets of climatic studies that may not be clear in the underlying published study, including the version of the dataset utilized, and will contain sets of formal metadata for each figure and dataset.

  3. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  4. Global Climate Change. Selected Annotated Bibliography. Second Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Douglas E.

    This annotated bibliography on global climate change contains 27 articles designed to expand the breadth and depth of information presented in the Global Change Information Packet. Most articles were chosen from journals likely to be available in most medium-sized public or college libraries. The articles cover a variety of topics related to…

  5. 76 FR 34271 - Hewlett Packard, Global Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life Cycles Management Unit, Including...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-13

    ... workers of Hewlett Packard, Global Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life Cycles Management Unit... Employment and Training Administration Hewlett Packard, Global Parts Supply Chain, Global Product Life Cycles... Supply Chain Group, including leased workers from QFlex, North America Logistics and UPS...

  6. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

    PubMed

    Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

    2013-08-20

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  7. Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design

    PubMed Central

    Bechtel, Michael M.; Scheve, Kenneth F.

    2013-01-01

    Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation—costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement—affect individuals’ willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements. PMID:23886666

  8. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    The delicate balance of the gases that make up our atmosphere allows life to exist on Earth. Ozone depletion and global warming are related to changes in the concentrations of these gases. To solve global atmospheric problems, we need to understand the composition and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and the impact of human activities on them.

  9. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  10. Guiding Science and Policy Through the Global Climate Change Debate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silson, J.; Bullock, M. A.; Frodeman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    Facing the possibility of global climate change, policy makers are forced to make decisions about the research and application of science and technology to mitigate both the causes and effects of an evolving global climate. In the past, when deciding what kinds of research to fund, policy makers have relied on the criteria of feasibility and possible effectiveness in choosing areas to support. However, given both the complexity of the climate and its sensitivity to human decisions, future policy makers will need to develop a variety of criteria for choosing which subjects are worth pursuing. One issue that policy makers are likely to consider is the restriction of some areas of research based on the possible dangers that they may entail. This talk considers the question of whether and how policy makers should make such decisions within the context of global climate change.

  11. Global change researchers assess projections of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, Eric J.

    In October 1994 climate researchers met at the Forum on Global Change Modeling to create a consensus document summarizing the debate on issues related to the use of climate models to influence policy. The charge to the Forum was to develop a brief statement on the credibility of projections of climate change provided by General Circulation Models. The Forum focused specifically on the climate aspects of the entire global change issue, not on emission scenarios, the consequences of change to ecosystems and natural resource systems, or the socio-economic implications and potential for responses.The Forum report put thoughts on this often divisive issue into perspective for use by the Government Accounting Office in developing and considering national policy options. The forum was organized in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology by the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research, abranch of the new Committee on Earth and Natural Resources set up by the Clinton administration.

  12. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  13. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  14. Global food security under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

  15. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  16. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  17. CRISM's Global Mapping of Mars, Part 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    After a year in Mars orbit, CRISM has taken enough images to allow the team to release the first parts of a global spectral map of Mars to the Planetary Data System (PDS), NASA's digital library of planetary data.

    CRISM's global mapping is called the 'multispectral survey.' The team uses the word 'survey' because a reason for gathering this data set is to search for new sites for targeted observations, high-resolution views of the surface at 18 meters per pixel in 544 colors. Another reason for the multispectral survey is to provide contextual information. Targeted observations have such a large data volume (about 200 megabytes apiece) that only about 1% of Mars can be imaged at CRISM's highest resolution. The multispectral survey is a lower data volume type of observation that fills in the gaps between targeted observations, allowing scientists to better understand their geologic context.

    The global map is built from tens of thousands of image strips each about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) wide and thousands of kilometers long. During the multispectral survey, CRISM returns data from only 72 carefully selected wavelengths that cover absorptions indicative of the mineral groups that CRISM is looking for on Mars. Data volume is further decreased by binning image pixels inside the instrument to a scale of about 200 meters (660 feet) per pixel. The total reduction in data volume per square kilometer is a factor of 700, making the multispectral survey manageable to acquire and transmit to Earth. Once on the ground, the strips of data are mosaicked into maps. The multispectral survey is too large to show the whole planet in a single map, so the map is divided into 1,964 'tiles,' each about 300 kilometers (186 miles) across. There are three versions of each tile, processed to progressively greater levels to strip away the obscuring effects of the dusty atmosphere and to highlight mineral variations in surface materials.

    This is the third and most

  18. Global hydropower potential during recent droughts and under changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Sheffield, Justin; Wiberg, David; Wood, Eric F.

    2015-04-01

    There is a strong dependency of world's electricity sector on available water resources for hydropower generation. Recent droughts showed the vulnerability of the electricity sector to surface water constraints with reduced potentials for hydropower generation in different regions worldwide. Using a global modelling framework consisting of the VIC hydrological model and a hydropower model, we assess the impacts of recent droughts and future climate change on hydropower generation potentials worldwide. Our hydrological-electricity modelling framework was optimized and evaluated for 1981-2010, showing a realistic representation of observed streamflow and hydropower generation. We assessed the impacts of recent droughts and future climate change for more than 25,000 hydropower plants worldwide. Our results show that hydropower production potentials were significantly reduced during severe recent streamflow droughts (including e.g. summer of 2003 in Europe and 2007 in the United States). Model simulations with bias-corrected CMIP5 general circulation model output indicate that in several regions considerable reductions in hydropower production potentials are projected due to declines in streamflow during parts of the year. Considering these impacts and the long design life of power plant infrastructure, adaptation options should be included in today's planning and strategies to meet the growing electricity demand in the 21st century.

  19. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  20. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  1. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  2. Temperature, global climate change and food security

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accelerated climate change is expected to have a significant, but variable impact on the world’s major cropping zones. Crops will experience increasingly warmer, drier and more variable growing conditions in the temperate to subtropical latitudes towards 2050 and beyond. Short-term (1-5 day) spikes ...

  3. River Runoff Sensitivity in Eastern Siberia to Global Climate Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kashutina, E.

    2008-12-01

    During several last decades significant climate warming is observed in permafrost regions of Eastern Siberia. These changes include rise of air temperature as well as precipitation. Changes in regional climate are accompanied with river runoff changes. The analysis of the data shows that in the past 25 years, the largest contribution to the annual river runoff increase in the lower reaches of the Lena (Kyusyur) is made (in descending order) by the Lena river watershed (above Tabaga), the Aldan river (Okhotsky Perevoz), and the Vilyui river (Khatyryk-Khomo). The similar relation is also retained in the case of flood, with the seasonal river runoff of the Vilyui river being slightly decreased. Completely different relations are noted in winter, when a substantial river runoff increase is recorded in the lower reaches of the Lena river. In this case the major contribution to the winter river runoff increase in the Lena outlet is made by the winter river runoff increase on the Vilyui river. Unlike the above cases, the summer-fall river runoff in the lower reaches of the Lena river tends to decrease, which is similar to the trend exhibited by the Vilyui river. At the same time, the river runoff of the Lena (Tabaga) and Aldan (Verkhoyansky Perevoz) rivers increase. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in XXI century can bring more significant river runoff increase in the Lena river basin as compared with the recent one. Hydrological responses to climate warming have been evaluated for the plain part of the Lena river basin basing on a macroscale hydrological model featuring simplified description of processes developed in Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Two atmosphere-ocean global circulation models included in the IPCC (ECHAM4/OPY3 and GFDL-R30) were used as scenarios of future global climate. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in

  4. Changes in the Global Wave Climate from Single-Model Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Gil; Behrens, Arno; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Miranda, Pedro; Semedo, Alvaro; Staneva, Joanna

    2016-04-01

    Ocean surface wind waves are of outmost relevance for practical and scientific reasons. On the one hand waves have a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, in ship routing and ship design, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures, just to mention the most relevant. On the other hand waves are part of the climate system, and modulate most of the exchanges that take place at the atmosphere-ocean interface. In fact waves are the "ultimate" air-sea interaction process, clearly visible and noticeable. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit and received relative attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (Fifth Assessment Report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the future global wave climate is investigated through a 3-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is eliminated, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The three ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1971 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave climate are analyzed for the 2071-2100 period. The ensemble reference period is evaluated trough the comparison with the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis.

  5. Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate.

    PubMed

    Hsiang, Solomon M; Meng, Kyle C; Cane, Mark A

    2011-08-25

    It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate. PMID:21866157

  6. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  7. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  8. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    PubMed

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world. PMID:17107430

  9. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  10. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  11. Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2015-11-01

    A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

  12. Central Africa: Global climate change and development. Synopsis

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    Central Africa contains the largest remaining contiguous expanse of moist tropical forest on the African continent and the second largest in the world. However, deforestation rates are rising as the result of rapid population growth, inappropriate economic policies, economic downturns, and weak management capacities. If clearing rates continue to rise, a substantial amount of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere, thus contributing to global climate change. The report summarizes a study designed as a first step in understanding the complex dynamics of the causes and effects of global climate change in Central Africa. The current state of the region's forests, greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and biomass burning, and the potential impacts of global climate change are discussed.

  13. Including Cities in Projections of Global Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, M.; Best, M.; Betts, R.

    2010-12-01

    The impact of land use change through urbanisation has long been recognised as an important driver of localised climate change, resulting from the thermal and aerodynamic properties of the built environment that impact heat, moisture and momentum exchange at the atmosphere-surface interface. Urban areas contain a majority of the global population, and account for approximately 70% of primary energy demand. Therefore urban areas are focal points of vulnerability and exposure to climate change, but also potentially powerful focal points for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Urban areas occupy only a tiny fraction of the available land surface of the globe, and therefore have generally been ignored in the context of global climate change simulation. Rapid advances in recent decades have lead to the development of numerical urban models suitable for coupling to weather prediction and climate models. While the urban micro-climate and greenhouse gas induced climate change operate over very different space and time-scales we should not assume that their evolution will be independent. In this paper we demonstrate the use of an urban land surface exchange scheme nested in Hadley Centre climate models contributing to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. This has been used to quantify the development of urban heat islands in response to both radiatively forced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions, and local forcing from anthropogenic heat release associated with energy use within the urban environment. Urban citizens will be exposed to the cumulative impacts of urbanisation and climate change trends through the 21st Century, and here we demonstrate that these would be much greater than climate change alone. We also find that those areas of the world expected to undergo large urbanisation over the 21st Century are within climate zones that are among those most sensitive to the nocturnal urban heat island effect.

  14. Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using GIS and CLIMEX.

    PubMed

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2014-05-01

    We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records, we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H, run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compared today's climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti . The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species. The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future. PMID:24893017

  15. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  16. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    PubMed Central

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15N:14N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss. PMID:25655192

  17. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients.

    PubMed

    Craine, Joseph M; Elmore, Andrew J; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W Troy; Brookshire, E N J; Cramer, Michael D; Hasselquist, Niles J; Hobbie, Erik A; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J Marty; Mack, Michelle C; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R; McLauchlan, Kendra K; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B; Oliveira, Rafael S; Perakis, Steven S; Peri, Pablo L; Quesada, Carlos A; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A; Stevenson, Bryan A; Turner, Benjamin L; Viani, Ricardo A G; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss. PMID:25655192

  18. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-02-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15N:14N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  19. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O'Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-07-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250-1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m-2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway.

  20. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  1. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  2. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    PubMed

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  3. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  4. Assessing Human Impacts on Climate System over Global Urban Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, M.; Dickinson, R. E.

    2002-12-01

    Urbanization as a form of rapid change in global land cover will contribute to changes of the climate system. Although the climate impacts of urban growth has been studied since the 1950s, it has only been observed through changes of surface air temperature. The past use of remote sensing to look at small areas suggests that such an approach could be very useful on larger scales. However, what is best to observe in such a context and how it might be related to the simulations of global climate models should first be addressed. Recent observations from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA terra satellite can be applied to monitor urban land surface and atmospheric disturbances caused by human activities. Analyzing all of the global urban pixels for land surface skin temperature, albedo, emissivity, land cover, as well as clouds and aerosol properties, we observe that climae is modified over urban areas from the decrease of surface albedo and emissivity, and from the increase of clouds and sulfate aerosol optical depth. The unique strengths of MODIS data (global coverage, fine resolution, simultaneous measurements of various important surface and atmospheric variables) make it possible to investigate all the cities over the globe, and so advance the understanding of what is the range of urbanization effects, what determine these effects, and so suggest how impacts of urban physical processes may be addressed through use of global climate models.

  5. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases.

  6. The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.; Baskaran, S.; Obenhuber, D.

    1996-12-31

    In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.

  7. Fostering Civic Science Literacy with NASA's Global Climate Change Website

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenenbaum, L. F.; Jackson, R.; Greene, W. M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change science is a complicated subject that can be both confusing and intimidating to non-scientists. Nevertheless, fostering public understanding of the science and the evidence for an anthropogenic cause is essential to motivating behavioral change. In response to the need for engaging and accessible materials in the area of climate science, NASA launched the Global Climate Change website http://climate.nasa.gov/ in 2008. The site makes extensive use of interactive media, immersive visualizations, ground-based and remote images, narrated and time lapse videos, time series animations, and real-time scientific data, plus maps and user friendly graphics that make the scientific content both accessible and engaging to the public. NASA's Global Climate Change Website has become a top search result for "climate change" for all major search engines and has won two consecutive Webby Awards for Best Science Website. The website's interactive and visually exciting style enhances public engagement, scientific curiosity and interest in Earth and climate science across diverse populations, thus promoting broader civic science literacy.

  8. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  9. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  10. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    PubMed Central

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-01-01

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies. PMID:26438282

  11. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon

  12. Global Climatic Controls On Leaf Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, I. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Dong, N.; Maire, V.

    2015-12-01

    Since the 1890s it's been known that the wet tropics harbour plants with exceptionally large leaves. Yet the observed latitudinal gradient of leaf size has never been fully explained: it is still unclear which aspects of climate are most important for understanding geographic trends in leaf size, a trait that varies many thousand-fold among species. The key is the leaf-to-air temperature difference, which depends on the balance of energy inputs (irradiance) and outputs (transpirational cooling, losses to the night sky). Smaller leaves track air temperatures more closely than larger leaves. Widely cited optimality-based theories predict an advantage for smaller leaves in dry environments, where transpiration is restricted, but are silent on the latitudinal gradient. We aimed to characterize and explain the worldwide pattern of leaf size. Across 7900 species from 651 sites, here we show that: large-leaved species predominate in wet, hot, sunny environments; smaller-leaved species typify hot, sunny environments only when arid; small leaves are required to avoid freezing in high latitudes and at high elevation, and to avoid overheating in dry environments. This simple pattern was unclear in earlier, more limited analyses. We present a simple but robust, fresh approach to energy-balance modelling for both day-time and night-time leaf-to-air temperature differences, and thus risk of overheating and of frost damage. Our analysis shows night-chilling is important as well as day-heating, and simplifies leaf temperature modelling. It provides both a framework for modelling leaf size constraints, and a solution to one of the oldest conundrums in ecology. Although the path forward is not yet fully clear, because of its role in controlling leaf temperatures we suggest that climate-related leaf size constraints could usefully feature in the next generation of land ecosystem models.

  13. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND DIVERSITY OF MICORRHIZAE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Elevated CO2 and temperature effects on ectomycorrhizal diversity were studied during the first part of a 3-4 year exposure using Douglas-fir seedlings. ctomycorrhizae (ECM) are sorted into morphotypes by gross morphology. umber of ECM tips and number of morphotypes increased as ...

  14. Climate-induced forest dieback: An escalating global phenomenon?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.D.

    2009-01-01

    The impacts of growing human populations and economies are both rapidly and directly transforming forests in many areas. However, little known are the pervasive effects of the ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Global patterns are now evident with the global tree mortality that is now above its usual mortality levels as it is affected by drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback. Thus, the possibility of an increased risk of climate-induced dieback is now being considered within many of the forests and woodlands of today. A focus will be given on the climatic water stress that is driven by both drought and warm temperatures. However, studying the trends in forest mortality and predictions has its limitations with such a number of information gaps and scientific uncertainties. First is the absence of an adequate global data on forest health status, followed by the fact that only a few tree species have the researchers an adequate quantitative knowledge with regards to its physiological thresholds of individual tree mortality from chronic or acute water stress. Lastly, the adequate knowledge of the feedback and non-linear interactions between climate-induced forest stress and other climate-related disturbance processes are lacking among the current scientists.

  15. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world. PMID:22691199

  16. Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonan, Gordon B.; Pollard, David; Thompson, Starley L.

    1992-10-01

    TERRESTRIAL ecosystems are thought to play an important role in determining regional and global climate1-6 one example of this is in Amazonia, where destruction of the tropical rainforest leads to warmer and drier conditions4-6. Boreal forest ecosystems may also affect climate. As temperatures rise, the amount of continental and oceanic snow and ice is reduced, so the land and ocean surfaces absorb greater amounts of solar radiation, reinforcing the warming in a 'snow/ice/albedo' feedback which results in large climate sensitivity to radiative forcings7-9. This sensitivity is moderated, however, by the presence of trees in northern latitudes, which mask the high reflectance of snow10,11, leading to warmer winter temperatures than if trees were not present12-14. Here we present results from a global climate model which show that the boreal forest warms both winter and summer air temperatures, relative to simulations in which the forest is replaced with bare ground or tundra vegetation. Our results suggest that future redistributions of boreal forest and tundra vegetation (due, for example, to extensive logging, or the influence of global warming) could initiate important climate feedbacks, which could also extend to lower latitudes.

  17. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  18. Global flood risks under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Ward, Philip; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Worldwide major flood events result in both economic losses and large numbers of casualties. Recent global scale studies indicate that in many regions of the world discharge extremes are likely to increase under changing climate conditions. However, few studies have so far examined how these changes in climate conditions may affect flood risk (defined here as the probability of a flood multiplied by the consequences). In the current study we investigate the impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on flood extents and depths, and also assess the potential impacts on flood risk. The study is conducted on a global scale, thereby indicating in which regions of the world flood risk is likely to change most. To assess global food risk under changing conditions, we combined socio-economic data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) framework of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) with high resolution maps of inundation depth (1 km). To this end, projections from a number of GCMs were bias-corrected and used to force the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB which simulates (amongst other variables) global maps with daily flood volumes on a 0.5 degree resolution. These time series were used to derive flood volume maps for multiple return periods, which were downscaled to inundation depth maps at 1 km resolution using a 1 km resolution DEM. Finally, these high resolution flood maps were combined with spatial datasets on future GDP and population density from the IMAGE model. Results are presented on both the global scale and at the country level. We believe that the obtained flood extend and flood risk maps can assist development agencies in planning climate adaptation investments that aim to reduce flood risks.

  19. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  20. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  1. MODELING THE IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O3 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warm...

  2. AIR QUALITY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (PHASE 1)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Predicted changes in the global climate over the coming decades could alter weather patterns and, thus, impact land use, source emissions, and tropospheric air quality. The United States has a series of standards for criteria air pollutants and other air pollutants in place to s...

  3. Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

  4. Linking Urban Air Pollution to Global Tropospheric Chemistry and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Chien

    2005-01-01

    The two major tasks of this project are to study: (a) the impact of urban nonlinear chemistry on chemical budgets of key pollutants in non-urban areas; and (b) the influence of air pollution control strategies in selected metropolitan areas, particularly of emerging economies in East and South Asia, on tropospheric chemistry and hence on regional and global climate.

  5. Achieving Global Ocean Color Climate Data Records

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Bryan

    2010-01-01

    Ocean color, or the spectral distribution of visible light upwelling from beneath the ocean surface, carries information on the composition and concentration of biological constituents within the water column. The CZCS mission in 1978 demonstrated that quantitative ocean color measurements could be. made from spaceborne sensors, given sufficient corrections for atmospheric effects and a rigorous calibration and validation program. The launch of SeaWiFS in 1997 represents the beginning of NASA's ongoing efforts to develop a continuous ocean color data record with sufficient coverage and fidelity for global change research. Achievements in establishing and maintaining the consistency of the time-series through multiple missions and varying instrument designs will be highlighted in this talk, including measurements from NASA'S MODIS instruments currently flying on the Terra and Aqua platforms, as well as the MERIS sensor flown by ESA and the OCM-2 sensor recently launched by ISRO.

  6. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  7. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  8. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change. PMID:26912702

  9. Global simulations of BVOC-aerosol-climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkonen, Risto; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Iversen, Trond; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Markku

    2015-04-01

    The terrestrial emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is modulated by several climate variables. Since the emitted BVOCs influence atmospheric aerosol formation and the respective aerosol forcing, there are several potential aerosol-climate feedback mechanisms which operate via BVOC emissions. Increased aerosol loading will increase the amount of diffuse radiation with respect to global radiation, leading to increased photosynthesis. On the other hand, an increase in BVOC emission could increase concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), leading to changes in cloud albedo and cloud dynamics. We have developed the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to capture the necessary processes and interactions in order to describe BVOC-climate-feedbacks. BVOC emissions are calculated online by the MEGAN algorithm, and secondary organic aerosol formation from monoterpene and isoprene is accounted for. The developed coupled model is used to simulate the climate feedbacks with various idealized perturbations, including doubled/quadrupled CO2 concentration and decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emission. Equilibrium simulations with doubled CO2 show an increase of monoterpene emission by 20% globally, leading to increase in aerosol growth, aerosol loading and CCN concentration. Simulations indicate an overall negative BVOC-aerosol-climate feedback, which could act to reduce the future climate warming. However, the magnitude of the feedback is highly sensitive to the spatial distribution of the initial perturbation, applied BVOC emission parameters, and the underlying assumptions of SOA formation processes.

  10. A Terrestrial Surface Climate Data Record for Global Change Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermote, E.; Justice, C.; Csiszar, I. A.; Meyer, D. J.; Myneni, R. B.; Baret, F.; Masuoka, E.; Wolfe, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    The overall objective of this project is to produce, validate and distribute a global land surface climate data record (CDR) using a combination of mature and tested algorithms and the best available land imaging polar orbiting satellite data from the past to the present (1981-2011), and which will be extendable into the JPSS era. The data record consists of one fundamental climate data record (FCDR), the surface reflectance product. Two Thematic CDRs (TCDRs) are also be derived from the FCDR, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LAI/fAPAR. These two products are used extensively for climate change research and are listed as Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). In addition, these products are used in a number of applications of long-term societal benefit. The two TCDRs are used to assess the performance of the FCDR through a rigorous validation program and will provide feedback on the requirements for the Surface Reflectance FCDR. We will focus this presentation on the progress made so far, a discussion of the performance of the version 3.0 (released April 2010) and the subsequent improvements and schedule for release of version 4.0. We will also present in detail the mechanisms for applying peer-reviewed algorithms, product generation, distribution, quality control, uncertainties assessment and metadata standards for this Terrestrial Climate Data Record.

  11. A Terrestrial Surface Climate Data Record for Global Change Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermote, E.; Justice, C. O.; Claverie, M.; Csiszar, I. A.; Meyer, D. J.; Myneni, R.; Baret, F.; Masuoka, E.; Wolfe, R. E.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents results from a project to produce, validate and distribute a global land surface Climate Data Record (CDR) using a combination of mature and tested algorithms and the best available polar orbiting satellite data from the past to the present (1981-2012), which can be extendable into the JPSS era. The data record consists of one fundamental climate data record (FCDR), the surface reflectance product. Two Thematic CDRs (TCDRs) are also be derived from the FCDR, the normalized difference vegetation index (VI) and LAI/fAPAR. These two products are used extensively for climate change research and are listed as Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). In addition, these products are used in a number of applications of long-term societal benefit. The two TCDRs are used to assess the performance of the FCDR through a rigorous validation program and will provide feedback on the requirements for the Surface Reflectance FCDR. We will focus in this presentation on the progress made so far, the discussion of the performance of version 3.0 of the product and the subsequent improvements and schedule for release of version 4.0. We will also present in detail the mechanisms for product generation, distribution, quality control, uncertainties assessment for this Terrestrial Climate Data Record. We will finally present practical applications of this dataset to forest cover change detection over the long term as well as drought monitoring in the context of agricultural production and food security.

  12. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to Global Warming Pattern Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, X.; Zhang, G. J.; Cai, M.

    2013-12-01

    The ';';climate feedback-response analysis method'' (CFRAM) was applied to the NCAR CCSM3.0 simulation to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to quantify their contributions to global and regional surface temperature changes in response to a doubling of CO2. Instead of analyzing the climate sensitivity, the CFRAM directly attributes the temperature change to individual radiative and non-radiative feedbacks. The radiative feedback decomposition is based on hourly model output rather than monthly mean data that are commonly used in climate feedback analysis. This gives a more accurate quantification of the cloud and albedo feedbacks. The process-based decomposition of non-radiative feedback enables us to understand the roles of GCM physical and dynamic processes in climate change. The pattern correlation, the centered root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the ratio of variations (represented by standard deviations) between the partial surface temperature change due to each feedback process and the total surface temperature change in CCSM3.0 simulation are examined to quantify the roles of each feedback process in the global warming pattern formation. The contributions of climate feedbacks to the regional warming are also discussed.

  13. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKuin, Brandi; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2016-02-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  14. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  15. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    PubMed

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

  16. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

    PubMed Central

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature. PMID:26813867

  17. Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

    2014-06-01

    Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. PMID:24382828

  18. Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

    2014-01-01

    Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091–2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006–2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. PMID:24382828

  19. Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter.

    PubMed

    Marcus, Philip S

    2004-04-22

    Jupiter's atmosphere, as observed in the 1979 Voyager space craft images, is characterized by 12 zonal jet streams and about 80 vortices, the largest of which are the Great Red Spot and three White Ovals that had formed in the 1930s. The Great Red Spot has been observed continuously since 1665 and, given the dynamical similarities between the Great Red Spot and the White Ovals, the disappearance of two White Ovals in 1997-2000 was unexpected. Their longevity and sudden demise has been explained however, by the trapping of anticyclonic vortices in the troughs of Rossby waves, forcing them to merge. Here I propose that the disappearance of the White Ovals was not an isolated event, but part of a recurring climate cycle which will cause most of Jupiter's vortices to disappear within the next decade. In my numerical simulations, the loss of the vortices results in a global temperature change of about 10 K, which destabilizes the atmosphere and thereby leads to the formation of new vortices. After formation, the large vortices are eroded by turbulence over a time of approximately 60 years--consistent with observations of the White Ovals-until they disappear and the cycle begins again. PMID:15103369

  20. Global climate and infectious disease: The cholera paradigm

    SciTech Connect

    Colwell, R.R.

    1996-12-20

    Historically, infectious diseases have had a profound effect on human populations, including their evolution and cultural development. Despite significant advances in medical science, infectious diseases continue to impact human populations in many parts of the world. Emerging diseases are considered to be those infections that either are newly appearing in the population or are rapidly increasing in incidence or expanding in geographic range. Emergence of disease is not a simple phenomenon, mainly because infectious diseases are dynamic. Most new infections are not caused by truly new pathogens but are microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and helminths) that find a new way to enter a susceptible host and are newly recognized because of recently developed, sensitive techniques. Human activities drive emergence of disease and a variety of social, economic, political, climatic, technological, and environmental factors can shape the pattern of a disease and influence its emergence into populations. For example, travel affects emergence of disease, and human migrations have been the main source of epidemics throughout history. Trade caravans, religious pilgrimage, and military campaigns facilitated the spread of plague, smallpox, and cholera. Global travel is a fact of modern life and, equally so, the continued evolution of microorganisms; therefore, new infections will continue to emerge, and known infections will change in distribution, frequency, and severity. 88 refs., 1 fig.

  1. No easy answers for global climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakefield, J.

    First the word was that not only car emissions but cow burps may play a significant role in global warming. Then, the story turned to rice paddies and cockroaches as likely sources of greenhouse gases. Sound confusing? It should.Now even experts readily admit global warming research is chock-full of uncertainties. And these issues offer only a freeze-frame of the broader climate change motion picture. Everything from whether sea levels will rise to whether hurricanes will be come more frequent to whether solar forcing plays a role in all of this is now in question. This means that making and implementing effective international climate change policies remains a tenuous process—even at a time when the overall funding for global change research is at an all-time high in the United States.

  2. Engaging the Global South on climate engineering research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winickoff, David E.; Flegal, Jane A.; Asrat, Asfawossen

    2015-07-01

    The Global South is relatively under-represented in public deliberations about solar radiation management (SRM), a controversial climate engineering concept. This Perspective analyses the outputs of a deliberative exercise about SRM, which took place at the University of California-Berkeley and involved 45 mid-career environmental leaders, 39 of whom were from the Global South. This analysis identifies and discusses four themes from the Berkeley workshop that might inform research and governance in this arena: (1) the 'moral hazard' problem should be reframed to emphasize 'moral responsibility'; (2) climate models of SRM deployment may not be credible as primary inputs to policy because they cannot sufficiently address local concerns such as access to water; (3) small outdoor experiments require some form of international public accountability; and (4) inclusion of actors from the Global South will strengthen both SRM research and governance.

  3. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

  4. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

  5. "Ask Argonne" - Robert Jacob, Climate Scientist, Part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Jacob, Robert

    2014-01-08

    Previously, climate scientist Robert Jacob talked a bit about the work he does and invited questions from the public during Part 1 of his "Ask Argonne" video set (http://bit.ly/1aK6WDv). In Part 2, he answers some of the questions that were submitted.

  6. "Ask Argonne" - Robert Jacob, Climate Scientist, Part 2

    ScienceCinema

    Jacob, Robert

    2014-11-24

    Previously, climate scientist Robert Jacob talked a bit about the work he does and invited questions from the public during Part 1 of his "Ask Argonne" video set (http://bit.ly/1aK6WDv). In Part 2, he answers some of the questions that were submitted.

  7. Global climate change and the mitigation challenge

    SciTech Connect

    Frank Princiotta

    2009-10-15

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8{sup o}C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO{sub 2} emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5{sup o}C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO{sub 2} emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs fall far short of what is required. 20 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Self-regulation in land plant and global climate interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morel, V.; dePolo, P.; Matsumoto, K.

    2013-12-01

    The interactions between land plants and climate have long been recognized. As global climate change occurs, there is a necessity to understand the sensitivity of vegetation and the surrounding physical environment to these changes. In this study, we use MESMO-2E, an earth system model of intermediate complexity, to investigate the response of climate and land plants to changes in the optimal growth conditions of the plants (temperature and ambient carbon dioxide level). In an initial set of sensitivity experiments, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, and consequently the air temperature, were reduced as the climate changed from pre-industrial to glacial conditions. As the optimal temperature and carbon dioxide levels were changed to be similar to that of the glacial environment, an increase in carbon vegetation and air temperature was observed, suggesting a self-regulation mechanism. Results of further sensitivity experiments that work to identify the self-regulation mechanism will be presented.

  9. A Global Framework for Monitoring Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    White, Michael A; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hargrove, William Walter; Nemani, Ramakrishna R

    2005-01-01

    Remote sensing of vegetation phenology is an important method with which to monitor terrestrial responses to climate change, but most approaches include signals from multiple forcings, such as mixed phenological signals from multiple biomes, urbanization, political changes, shifts in agricultural practices, and disturbances. Consequently, it is difficult to extract a clear signal from the usually assumed forcing: climate change. Here, using global 8 km 1982 to 1999 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and an eight-element monthly climatology, we identified pixels whose wavelet power spectrum was consistently dominated by annual cycles and then created phenologically and climatically self-similar clusters, which we term phenoregions. We then ranked and screened each phenoregion as a function of landcover homogeneity and consistency, evidence of human impacts, and political diversity. Remaining phenoregions represented areas with a minimized probability of non-climatic forcings and form elemental units for long-term phenological monitoring.

  10. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by