Science.gov

Sample records for global temperature variation

  1. Statistical examination of climatological data relevant to global temperature variation

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, H.L.; Gunst, R.F.; Woodward, W.A.

    1992-01-01

    The research group at Southern Methodist University has been involved in the examination of climatological data as specified in the proposal. Our efforts have resulted in three papers which have been submitted to scholarly journals, as well as several other projects which should be completed either during the next six months or next year. In the following, we discuss our results to date along with projected progress within the next six months. Major topics discussed in this progress report include: testing for trend in the global temperature data; (2) defining and estimating mean global temperature change; and, (3) the effect of initial conditions on autoregressive models for global temperature data.

  2. Global patterns of cloud optical thickness variation with temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tselioudis, George; Rossow, William B.; Rind, David

    1992-01-01

    The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project dataset is used to correlate variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud temperature in today's atmosphere. The analysis focuses on low clouds in order to limit the importance of changes in cloud vertical extent, particle size, and water phase. Coherent patterns of change are observed on several time and space scales. On the planetary scale, clouds in colder, higher latitudes are found to be optically thicker than clouds in warmer, lower latitudes. On the seasonal scale, winter clouds are, for the most part, optically thicker than summer clouds. The logarithmic derivative of cloud optical thickness with temperature is used to describe the sign and magnitude of the optical thickness-temperature correlation. The seasonal, latitudinal, and day-to-day variations of this relation are examined for Northern Hemisphere clouds in 1984. In cold continental clouds, optical thickness increases with temperature, consistent with the temperature variation of the adiabatic cloud water content. In warm continental and in almost all maritime clouds, however, optical thickness decreases with temperature.

  3. Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

    1993-01-01

    We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

  4. Global surface air temperature variations: 1851-1984

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, P.D.; Raper, S.C.B.; Kelly, P.M.

    1986-11-01

    Many attempts have been made to combine station surface air temperature data into an average for the Northern Hemisphere. Fewer attempts have been made for the Southern Hemisphere because of the unavailability of data from the Antarctic mainland before the 1950s and the uncertainty of making a hemispheric estimate based solely on land-based analyses for a hemisphere that is 80% ocean. Past estimates have been based largely on data from the World Weather Records (Smithsonian Institution, 1927, 1935, 1947, and U.S. Weather Bureau, 1959-82) and have been made without considerable effort to detect and correct station inhomogeneities. Better estimates for the Southern Hemisphere are now possible because of the availability of 30 years of climatological data from Antarctica. The mean monthly surface air temperature anomalies presented in this package for the than those previously published because of the incorporation of data previously hidden away in archives and the analysis of station homogeneity before estimation.

  5. Numerical simulation of global variations of temperature, ozone, and trace species in the stratosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, A.K.

    1995-01-01

    A three-dimensional dynamical chemical model of the middle atmosphere is used to examine the global response to planetary waves in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The model indicates that larger wave activity in the lower stratosphere at 60 deg N is correlated with decreasing zonal mean temperatures throughout the tropical and summer hemisphere stratosphere as a result of an induced global-scale circulation. The tendency of mean ozone is positively correlated with the temperature tendency in the lower stratosphere and negatively correlated in the upper stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, the anticorrelation of mean ozone and temperature is due primarily to the temperature dependence of many of the reaction rates. The quantitative agreement of the model results with available observations is better when the dependence of the ozone-temperature relation on the mean zone amount is removed (by taking the log of ozone) because the model ozone differs from the observed. A model run in which the atmospheric chlorine is removed indicates that the magnitude of the ozone change for a given temperature change can be substantial for modifications in the model photochemistry. Another run tested a more realistic change in which a key reaction rate is modified; the results indicate differences of greater than 10% in the ratio of ozone to temperature changes. With improved measurement capabilities differences of this order may now or soon be detectable. The variations of other chemical species in the model with temperature are also presented.

  6. Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record

    SciTech Connect

    Reid, G.C. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder )

    1991-02-20

    The record of globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 130 years shows a highly significant correlation with the envelope of the 11-year cycle of solar activity over the same period. This correlation could be explained by a variation in the sun's total irradiance (the solar constant) that is in phase with the solar-cycle envelope, supporting and updating an earlier conclusion by Eddy (1976) that such variations could have played a major role in climate change over the past millennium. Measurements of the total irradiance from spacecraft, rockets, and balloons over the past 25 years have provided evidence of long-term variations and have been used to develop a simple linear relationship between irradiance and the envelope of the sunspot cycle. This relationship has been used to force a one-dimensional model of the thermal structure of the ocean, consisting of a 100-m mixed layer coupled to a deep ocean and including a thermohaline circulation. The model was started in the mid-seventeenth century, at the time of the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, and mixed-layer temperatures were calculated at 6-month intervals up to the present. The total range of irradiance values during the period was about 1%, and the total range of SST was about 1C. Cool periods, when temperatures were about 0.5C below present-day values, were found in the early decades of both the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The results can be taken as indicating that solar variability has been an important contributor to global climate variations in recent decades. The growing atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases may well have played an important role in the immediate past.

  7. Statistical examination of climatological data relevant to global temperature variation. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, H.L.; Gunst, R.F.; Woodward, W.A.

    1998-07-01

    Advanced statistical procedures have been developed to analyze and model climatological data. Research has focused on the following areas: testing the global temperature series for trend; the effect of initial conditions on autoregressive models for global temperature data; long memory modeling of the carbon dioxide data; and spatial modeling of global temperature data.

  8. Variations in global temperature and precipitation for the period of 1948 to 2010.

    PubMed

    Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Yang, Tiantian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei

    2014-09-01

    Climate change has impacts on both natural and human systems. Accurate information regarding variations in precipitation and temperature is essential for identifying and understanding these potential impacts. This research applied Mann-Kendall, rescaled range analysis and wave transform methods to analyze the trends and periodic properties of global and regional surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PR) over the period of 1948 to 2010. The results show that 65.34% of the area studied exhibits significant warming trends (p < 0.05) while only 3.18% of the area exhibits significant cooling trends. The greatest warming trends are observed in Antarctica (0.32 °C per decade) and Middle Africa (0.21 °C per decade). Notably, 62.26% of the area became wetter, while 22.01% of the area shows drying trends. Northern Europe shows the largest precipitation increase, 12.49 mm per decade. Western Africa shows the fastest drying, -21.05 mm per decade. The rescaled range analysis reveals large areas that show persistent warming trends; this behavior in SAT is more obvious than that in PR. Wave transform results show that a 1-year period of SAT variation dominates in all regions, while inconsistent 0.5-year bands are observed in East Asia, Middle Africa, and Southeast Asia. In PR, significant power in the wavelet power spectrum at a 1-year period was observed in 17 regions, i.e., in all regions studied except Western Europe, where precipitation is instead characterized by 0.5-year and 0.25-year periods. Overall, the variations in SAT and PR can be consistent with the combined impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors, such as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, the internal variability of climate system, and volcanic eruptions. PMID:24833023

  9. Statistical examination of climatological data relevant to global temperature variation. Progress report, July 1991--January 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, H.L.; Gunst, R.F.; Woodward, W.A.

    1992-01-01

    The research group at Southern Methodist University has been involved in the examination of climatological data as specified in the proposal. Our efforts have resulted in three papers which have been submitted to scholarly journals, as well as several other projects which should be completed either during the next six months or next year. In the following, we discuss our results to date along with projected progress within the next six months. Major topics discussed in this progress report include: testing for trend in the global temperature data; (2) defining and estimating mean global temperature change; and, (3) the effect of initial conditions on autoregressive models for global temperature data.

  10. Reconstructing Variations of Global Sea-Surface Temperature during the Last Interglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, J. S.; Clark, P. U.; He, F.; Parnell, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The last interglaciation (LIG; ~130-116 ka) was the most recent period in Earth history with higher-than-present global sea level (≥6 m) under similar-to-preindustrial concentrations of atmospheric CO2, suggesting additional feedbacks related to albedo, insolation, and ocean circulation in generating the apparent climatic differences between the LIG and present Holocene. However, our understanding of how much warmer the LIG sea surface was relative to the present interglaciation remains uncertain, with current estimates suggesting from 0°C to 2°C warmer than late-20thcentury average global temperatures. Moreover, the timing, spatial expression, and amplitude of regional and global sea surface temperature variability related to other climate forcing during the LIG are poorly constrained, largely due to uncertainties in age control and proxy temperature reconstructions. An accurate characterization of global and regional temperature change during the LIG can serve as a benchmark for paleoclimate modeling intercomparison projects and help improve understanding of sea-level sensitivity to temperature change. We will present a global compilation (~100 published records) of sea surface temperature (SST) and other climate reconstructions spanning the LIG. Using a Monte Carlo-enabled cross-correlation maximization algorithm to climatostratigraphically align proxy records and then account for both the resulting chronologic and proxy calibration uncertainties with Bayesian statistical inference, our results quantify the spatial timing, amplitude, and uncertainty in estimates of global and regional sea surface temperature change during the LIG and its relation to potential forcings.

  11. Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leone, Michela; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu; Tian, Linwei; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Yi, Seung-Muk; Michelozzi, Paola; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the non-linear and delayed relationship between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing over-dispersion with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relationship. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the non-linear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, while hot effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with the risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change. PMID:25166878

  12. Global and seasonal variations in three-dimensional gravity wave momentum flux from satellite limb-sounding temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, M. Joan

    2015-08-01

    Satellite limb-sounding methods provide the best global temperature data available for simultaneous measurement of gravity wave horizontal and vertical structures needed to estimate momentum flux and constrain wave effects on general circulation. Gravity waves vary in the three spatial dimensions and time, so the ideal measurement observes all three dimensions at high resolution nearly simultaneously. High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) measurements give near-simultaneous profiles in close proximity and at high vertical resolution, but these coincident profiles lie only along the plane of the measurement track. Here we combine HIRDLS and radio occultation data sets to obtain three-dimensional properties of gravity waves on a global scale as well as seasonal variations. The results show dramatic changes from previous estimates using either data set alone. Changes include much larger momentum fluxes and latitudinal variations in propagation direction that support an enhanced role for gravity wave forcing of middle atmosphere circulation.

  13. Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature.

    PubMed

    Tsonis, Anastasios A; Deyle, Ethan R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George; Swanson, Kyle; Verbeten, Joshua D; Wang, Geli

    2015-03-17

    As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451-452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635-1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429-433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385-396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales. PMID:25733877

  14. A New Global Empirical Model of the Electron Temperature with the Inclusion of the Solar Activity Variations for IRI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truhlik, V.; Triskova, L.

    2012-01-01

    A data-base of electron temperature (T(sub e)) comprising of most of the available LEO satellite measurements in the altitude range from 350 to 2000 km has been used for the development of a new global empirical model of T(sub e) for the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). For the first time this will include variations with solar activity. Variations at five fixed altitude ranges centered at 350, 550, 850, 1400, and 2000 km and three seasons (summer, winter, and equinox) were represented by a system of associated Legendre polynomials (up to the 8th order) in terms of magnetic local time and the earlier introduced in vdip latitude. The solar activity variations of T(sub e) are represented by a correction term of the T(sub e) global pattern and it has been derived from the empirical latitudinal profiles of T(sub e) for day and night (Truhlik et al., 2009a). Comparisons of the new T(sub e) model with data and with the IRI 2007 Te model show that the new model agrees well with the data generally within standard deviation limits and that the model performs better than the current IRI T(sub e) model.

  15. Statistical examination of climatological data relevant to global temperature variation. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, H.L.; Gunst, R.F.; Woodward, W.A.

    1994-07-01

    Since the writing of the original proposal, debate within the scientific community continues concerning the existence of a global warming trend due to the build-up of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases. Thus sound statistical analysis of the pertinent data continues to be a critical need. As indicated in the original proposal, the goals of this project are to critically examine the quality of existing data sets upon which conclusions are being drawn as well as to use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to model appropriate data for purposes of assessing whether a warming trend exists and identifying and understanding the explanatory variables. In this report the progress which has been made is discussed.

  16. Relation between the variations in the global surface temperature, El Niño/La Niña phenomena, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhov, I. I.; Smirnov, D. A.

    2016-04-01

    We analyzed directed couplings between the variations in the global surface temperature and modes of the natural climatic variability: the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO) quasi-periodical phenomena and the long-period Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on the data for 1870-2014. According to the quantitative estimates based on the monthly and annual mean data, the initial data, and the 10-year mean remote data, the most pronounced impact of the ENSO on the global surface temperature and the AMO was found. A weaker bidirectional coupling between the global surface temperature and the AMO is also pronounced. The analysis using running windows revealed an alternating effect of the ENSO and AMO on the variations in the global surface temperature related to the AMO phases.

  17. Global sea level linked to global temperature

    PubMed Central

    Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100. PMID:19995972

  18. Global model of longitude/UT variations in thermospheric composition and temperature based on mass spectrometer data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hedin, A. E.; Reber, C. A.; Spencer, N. W.; Brinton, H. C.; Kayser, D. C.

    1979-01-01

    Measurements of N2, O, He, and Ar densities from neutral gas mass spectrometers on four satellites and inferred O2 and H densities from an ion mass spectrometer have been combined to produce a model of longitude/UT variations in thermospheric neutral composition and temperature. The longitude/UT model is an extension of the mass spectrometer-incoherent scatter thermospheric model (Hedin et al., 1977) and uses spherical harmonic terms dependent on geographic latitude, longitude, and UT. The combined longitude and UT variations reflect the influence of the geomagnetic field but indicate that the variations may not simply be represented in magnetic coordinates.

  19. Reconciliation of global temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benestad, R. E.

    2012-03-01

    /warming (Isaksen et al 2007), all point to unusual warm conditions in the Arctic. Foster and Rahmstorf examine global mean temperature trends after accounting for variations associated with three different naturally occurring phenomena: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability. They used a similar approach to Lean and Rind (2008), but unlike Solomon et al (2010), they did not account for stratospheric water vapour concentrations. Their findings agree with Kaufmann et al (2011) who argue that this factor plays a minor role. Foster and Rahmstorf did not need to account for anthropogenic sulfur aerosols, as a fairly linear warming trend became discernable once the ENSO, solar activity and volcanism were accounted for. There is always a risk that multiple regression analysis may misattribute significance to unrelated factors (Benestad and Schmidt 2009), and Foster and Rahmstorf made some efforts to test whether their results could be affected by such spurious effects, making their results more convincing. Unfortunately, this is not always the case for papers in the scientific literature, and sometimes papers appear in journals even if they cannot be justified on scientific grounds (i.e. Wagner 2011). An interesting aside, however, is that similar physical principles implying a warming resulting from higher CO2 concentrations also are the basis for estimating the temperature from the microwave channels measured by satellite-borne instruments. The fact that Foster and Rahmstorf reconcile the trends seen in the in situ surface and satellite-borne remote sensing data brings out the consistency with the physics believed to be central to global warming. In my view, Foster and Rahmstorf do not come up with new ground-breaking results, but rather a view that fits in with the tacit knowledge about climate. The most interesting aspect is perhaps the different implications for effects associated with stratospheric water vapour and sulfur aerosols. It is also

  20. Reconciliation of global temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benestad, R. E.

    2012-03-01

    /warming (Isaksen et al 2007), all point to unusual warm conditions in the Arctic. Foster and Rahmstorf examine global mean temperature trends after accounting for variations associated with three different naturally occurring phenomena: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability. They used a similar approach to Lean and Rind (2008), but unlike Solomon et al (2010), they did not account for stratospheric water vapour concentrations. Their findings agree with Kaufmann et al (2011) who argue that this factor plays a minor role. Foster and Rahmstorf did not need to account for anthropogenic sulfur aerosols, as a fairly linear warming trend became discernable once the ENSO, solar activity and volcanism were accounted for. There is always a risk that multiple regression analysis may misattribute significance to unrelated factors (Benestad and Schmidt 2009), and Foster and Rahmstorf made some efforts to test whether their results could be affected by such spurious effects, making their results more convincing. Unfortunately, this is not always the case for papers in the scientific literature, and sometimes papers appear in journals even if they cannot be justified on scientific grounds (i.e. Wagner 2011). An interesting aside, however, is that similar physical principles implying a warming resulting from higher CO2 concentrations also are the basis for estimating the temperature from the microwave channels measured by satellite-borne instruments. The fact that Foster and Rahmstorf reconcile the trends seen in the in situ surface and satellite-borne remote sensing data brings out the consistency with the physics believed to be central to global warming. In my view, Foster and Rahmstorf do not come up with new ground-breaking results, but rather a view that fits in with the tacit knowledge about climate. The most interesting aspect is perhaps the different implications for effects associated with stratospheric water vapour and sulfur aerosols. It is also

  1. Global temperature monitoring from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, R. W.

    1994-01-01

    Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

  2. Global temperature change

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

  3. Global Stress Variation over Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, H.; Lu, Z.; Wen, L.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding how stress changes over time is important as it is related to studies of earthquake triggering and mantle rheology. We calculate stress variation at the Earth's surface on the global scale from 2003 to 2014, resultant from several major physical forces acting on the Earth. The physical forces we considered include the surface loading due to terrestrial water storage (TWS), force associated with post-glacial rebound (PGR) and tidal loading (including solid tide and ocean tide). The stress change associated with TWS is calculated in this way: we infer TWS from monthly gravity field of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), in which gravity variation associated with PGR has been removed; we then estimate stress change at the Earth's surface as the elastic response of the GRACE-inferred TWS change. The stress change associated with PGR is calculated as the rate of viscoelastic stress change responding to ice loading from ICE-5G model. And, tidal stress is calculated as the elastic response of the Earth to the traction forces of the Sun and the Moon (solid tide) and to the loading of ocean tide. The total stress change is the sum of the stress changes associated with these three types of forces. As first result, in the study period from 2003 to 2014, the radial normal stress variation exhibits a prominent decreasing trend in southern Africa and Queen Maud Land of Antarctica, an increasing trend in Alaska of the US (United States), Greenland and Marie Byrd Land of Antarctica, and strong annual cycles in southern Africa and Alaska of the US. We will present the geographical distribution of global stress variation from 2003 to 2014 and discuss its possible implications.

  4. Interannual variation of global atmospheric angular momentum

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Tribbia, J.J.

    1996-10-01

    The relative atmospheric angular momentum (RAM) integrated over the globe is an explicit variable representing the state of the atmospheric general circulation. After removing the annual, semiannual, and higher-frequency components, the filtered global RAM time series for the past 14 years (1979-92) is highly correlated with both the Southern Oscillation index and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature averaged over Area NINO-3 (5{degrees}S-5{degrees}N, 150{degrees}W-90{degrees}W). The interannual variation of global RAM is coherent with the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies. The global RAM anomalies reach their minimum values when westerly anomalies emerge in the Tropics and higher latitudes during a cold El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. On the other hand, global RAM anomalies attain their maximum values when westerly anomalies arrive at the subtropics of both hemispheres during a warm ENSO event. It is demonstrated that the poleward propagation of RAM anomalies results from the flip-flop oscillation of the anomalous circulation between cold and warm ENSO events. 11 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Coastal eutrophication and temperature variation

    SciTech Connect

    Ganoulis, J.; Rafailidis, S.; Bogardi, I.; Duckstein, L.; Matyasovszky, I.

    1994-12-31

    A 3-D hydroecological model has been developed to simulate the impact of climate-change-induced daily temperature variation on coastal water quality and eutrophication. Historical daily temperature time series over a thirty-year period have been used to link local meteorological variables to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Then, CPs generated under a 2{times}CO{sub 2} scenario have been used to simulate climate-change-induced local daily temperature variations. Both historical and climate-change-induced temperature time series have been introduced as inputs into the hydroecological model to simulate coastal water quality and eutrophication. Subject to model validation with available data, a case study in the bay of Thessaloniki (N. Greece) indicates a risk of increasing eutrophication and oxygen depletion in coastal areas due to possible climate change.

  6. Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin

    1993-01-01

    To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

  7. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  8. Solar activity and the mean global temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erlykin, A. D.; Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A. W.

    2009-01-01

    The variation with time from 1956 to 2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term variations in the global average surface temperature as a function of time since 1956 are found to have a similar cyclic component. The cyclic variations are also observed in the solar irradiance and in the mean daily sun spot number. The cyclic variation in the cosmic ray rate is observed to be delayed by 2-4 years relative to the temperature, the solar irradiance and daily sun spot variations suggesting that the origin of the correlation is more likely to be direct solar activity than cosmic rays. Assuming that the correlation is caused by such solar activity, we deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to this activity is {\\lesssim }14% of the observed global warming.

  9. Global Color Variations on Callisto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    Jupiter's icy moon Callisto is shown in approximate natural color (left) and in false color to enhance subtle color variations (right). This image of Callisto's Jupiter-facing hemisphere shows the ancient, multi-ring impact structure Valhalla just above the center of the image. Valhalla, possibly created by a large asteroid or comet which impacted Callisto, is the largest surface feature on this icy moon. Valhalla consists of a bright inner region, about 600 kilometers (360 miles) in diameter surrounded by concentric rings 3000 to 4000 kilometers (1800-2500 miles) in diameter. The bright central plains were possibly created by the excavation and ejection of 'cleaner' ice from beneath the surface, with a fluid-like mass (impact melt) filling the crater bowl after impact. The concentric rings are fractures in the crust resulting from the impact.

    The false color in the right image shows new information, including ejecta from relatively recent craters, which are often not apparent in the natural color image. The color also reveals a gradual variation across the moon's hemisphere, perhaps due to implantation of materials onto the surface from space.

    These color images were obtained with the 1 micrometer (infrared), green, and violet filters of the Solid State Imaging (SSI) system on NASA's Galileo spacecraft. The false color is created from ratios of infrared/violet and its inverse (violet/infrared) which are then combined so the infrared/violet, green, and violet/infrared are assigned to red, green, and blue in a composite product.

    North is to the top of the picture and the sun illuminates the surface from near the center, in the same way a full moon is seen from Earth when illuminated by the sun. The image, centered at 0.5 degrees south latitude and 56.3 degrees longitude, covers an area about 4800 by 4800 kilometers. The resolution is 14 kilometers per picture element. The images were taken on November 5, 1997 at a range of 68,400 kilometers (41,000 miles

  10. How much have variations in the meridional overturning circulation contributed to sea surface temperature trends since 1850? A study with the EC-Earth global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmith, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Gleeson, Emily; Semmler, Tido

    2014-05-01

    The surface of the worlds' oceans has been warming since the beginning of industrialisation mainly due to larger atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In addition to that multidecadal SST variations of internal origin exist. Evidence points to the North Atlantic Ocean as exhibiting the strongest multidecadal SST variations and that these variations are connected to the overturning circulation. In this work we investigate the extent to which these internal multidecadal variations have contributed to enhancing or diminishing the trend induced by the external radiative forcing globally and in the North Atlantic. We do so in a model study where we combine the analysis of a long control simulation with constant forcing corresponding to preindustrial conditions and an ensemble of simulations with historical forcing from 1850 until 2005. First we note that global SST trends calculated from the different historical simulations are similar, while there is a large disagreement between the North Atlantic SST trends. Then we analyse the control simulation, where we identify a relationship between SST anomalies and anomalies in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for multidecadal and longer time scales. This relationship enables us to extract the AMOC-related SST variability from each individual member of the ensemble of historical simulations and then to calculate the SST trends with the AMOC-related variability excluded. For the global SST trends this causes only a little difference while SST trends with AMOC related variability excluded for the North Atlantic show closer agreement than with the AMOC-related variability included. From this we conclude that AMOC variability contributed significantly to North Atlantic SST trends since the mid 19th century.

  11. MEx/SPICAM Dayside Exospheric Temperatures Derived from Airglow Emissions and Comparisons with Global Model Simulations: Do We Understand the Variations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bougher, S. W.; Stiepen, A.; Gerard, J. M.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Montmessin, F.

    2013-12-01

    For ten years now, the SPectroscopy for the Investigation of the Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Mars (SPICAM) instrument on board Mars Express has collected tangential limb dayglow observations of the CO Cameron bands (170-270 nm) and the CO2+ doublet emission lines (289 nm). The CO2+ emission arises from the relaxation of the CO2+* molecule in the B2Σ+ state to the X2Π state. The CO Cameron emissions arise from the forbidden transition between CO in the exited a3 Π triplet state to the ground (X1Σ+) state. CO2+*and CO* molecules are mainly produced in the Martian dayside through photoionization and photoelectron impact. The temperature of the neutral thermosphere-exosphere region of the Martian atmosphere (above 150 km) has been derived from the top scale height of these emission vertical profiles. The database contains temperatures obtained from observations that cover all latitudes, seasons, dayside solar zenith angles, etc. for solar minimum to moderate conditions. A search for the key factors that influence the temperature in this region of the Martian atmosphere is presented. In addition, 3-D global model simulations are conducted appropriate to these SPICAM sampling conditions. Comparisons among Mars Thermosphere General Circulation Model (MTGCM), Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (MGITM), and SPICAM derived temperatures are made. The capability of these solar EUV controlled 3-D models to reproduce observed dayside temperatures is discussed.

  12. Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.

    1993-01-01

    Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

  13. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  14. A global reference for human genetic variation.

    PubMed

    Auton, Adam; Brooks, Lisa D; Durbin, Richard M; Garrison, Erik P; Kang, Hyun Min; Korbel, Jan O; Marchini, Jonathan L; McCarthy, Shane; McVean, Gil A; Abecasis, Gonçalo R

    2015-10-01

    The 1000 Genomes Project set out to provide a comprehensive description of common human genetic variation by applying whole-genome sequencing to a diverse set of individuals from multiple populations. Here we report completion of the project, having reconstructed the genomes of 2,504 individuals from 26 populations using a combination of low-coverage whole-genome sequencing, deep exome sequencing, and dense microarray genotyping. We characterized a broad spectrum of genetic variation, in total over 88 million variants (84.7 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 3.6 million short insertions/deletions (indels), and 60,000 structural variants), all phased onto high-quality haplotypes. This resource includes >99% of SNP variants with a frequency of >1% for a variety of ancestries. We describe the distribution of genetic variation across the global sample, and discuss the implications for common disease studies. PMID:26432245

  15. A global reference for human genetic variation

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The 1000 Genomes Project set out to provide a comprehensive description of common human genetic variation by applying whole-genome sequencing to a diverse set of individuals from multiple populations. Here we report completion of the project, having reconstructed the genomes of 2,504 individuals from 26 populations using a combination of low-coverage whole-genome sequencing, deep exome sequencing, and dense microarray genotyping. We characterized a broad spectrum of genetic variation, in total over 88 million variants (84.7 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 3.6 million short insertions/deletions (indels), and 60,000 structural variants), all phased onto high-quality haplotypes. This resource includes >99% of SNP variants with a frequency of >1% for a variety of ancestries. We describe the distribution of genetic variation across the global sample, and discuss the implications for common disease studies. PMID:26432245

  16. MODIS Global Sea Surface Temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Every day the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measures sea surface temperature over the entire globe with high accuracy. This false-color image shows a one-month composite for May 2001. Red and yellow indicates warmer temperatures, green is an intermediate value, while blues and then purples are progressively colder values. The new MODIS sea surface temperature product will be particularly useful in studies of temperature anomalies, such as El Nino, as well as research into how air-sea interactions drive changes in weather and climate patterns. In the high resolution image, notice the amazing detail in some of the regional current patterns. For instance, notice the cold water currents that move from Antarctica northward along South America's west coast. These cold, deep waters upwell along an equatorial swath around and to the west of the Galapagos Islands. Note the warm, wide currents of the Gulf Stream moving up the United States' east coast, carrying Caribbean warmth toward Newfoundland and across the Atlantic toward Western Europe. Note the warm tongue of water extending from Africa's east coast to well south of the Cape of Good Hope. MODIS was launched in December 1999 aboard NASA's Terra satellite. For more details on this and other MODIS data products, please see NASA Unveils Spectacular Suite of New Global Data Products from MODIS. Image courtesy MODIS Ocean Group, NASA GSFC, and the University of Miami

  17. Global color and albedo variations on Io

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcewen, Alfred S.

    1988-01-01

    The present Voyager imaging data multispectral mosaics of Io include global mosaics from each of the Voyager 1 and 2 data sets and a high-resolution mosaic of the region centered on the Ra Patera volcano. The constancy of the disk-integrated color and albedo of Io over recent decades despite volcanic activity may be due to the regular occurrence of large Pele-type plumes with relatively dark, red deposits. Io's intrinsic spectral variability involves continuous variation among three major spectral end members. Attention is given to the mapping of the data into five spectral units for the purposes of comparison with laboratory measurements of Io surface material candidates.

  18. Global Variation of Meteor Trail Plasma Turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dyrud, L. P.; Hinrichs, J.; Urbina, J.

    2011-01-01

    We present the first global simulations on the occurrence of meteor trail plasma irregularities. These results seek to answer the following questions: when a meteoroid disintegrates in the atmosphere will the resulting trail become plasma turbulent, what are the factors influencing the development of turbulence, and how do they vary on a global scale. Understanding meteor trail plasma turbulence is important because turbulent meteor trails are visible as non-specular trails to coherent radars, and turbulence influences the evolution of specular radar meteor trails, particularly regarding the inference of mesospheric temperatures from trail diffusion rates, and their usage for meteor burst communication. We provide evidence of the significant effect that neutral atmospheric winds and density, and ionospheric plasma density have on the variability of meteor trail evolution and the observation of nonspecular meteor trails, and demonstrate that trails are far less likely to become and remain turbulent in daylight, explaining several observational trends using non-specular and specular meteor trails.

  19. Global modeling of fresh surface water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Eikelboom, T.; van Vliet, M. T.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    ERA40 re-analysis data. We compared our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (USGS, limited to the USA) and compared mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the GEMS data set. Results show that the model is able to capture well the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations both in time as well as in space, while the inter-annual variability as derived from the USGS data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for the arctic rivers, possibly because the timing of ice-breakup is predicted too late in the year due to the lack of including a mechanical break-up mechanism. The spatio-temporal variation of water temperature reveals large temperature differences between water and atmosphere for the higher latitudes, while considerable lateral transport of heat can be observed for rivers crossing hydroclimatic zones such as the Nile, the Mississippi and the large rivers flowing into the Arctic. Overall, our model results show great promise for future projection of global fresh surface water temperature under global change.

  20. Daily temperature variations on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ditteon, R.

    1982-01-01

    It is noted that for approximately 32% of the Martian surface area no values of thermal inertia or albedo can fit the thermal observations. These temperature anomalies do not correlate with elevation, geologic units, morphology, or atmospheric dust content. All regions having a Lambert albedo less than 0.18 can be well fit with the standard thermal model, but all areas with albedo greater than 0.28 are anomalous. A strong inverse correlation is seen between the magnitude of the anomaly and the thermal inertia. This correlation is seen as indicating that some surface property is responsible for the anomaly. In the anomalous region the temperatures are observed to be warmer in the morning and cooler late in the afternoon and to decrease more slowly during the night than the Viking model temperatures. It is believed that of all the physical processes likely to occur on Mars but not included in the Viking thermal model, only a layered soil can explain the observations. A possible explanation of the layering deduced from the infrared thermal mapper observations is a layer of aeolian deposited dust about one thermal skin depth thick (1 to 4 cm), covering a duricrust.

  1. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    PubMed Central

    Jensen, Per M.; De Fine Licht, Henrik H.

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics, demography, transmission patterns and general health status. We present data here that support the hypothsis that changes in CFRs for specific diseases may be the result of serial passage through different hosts. For example passage through adults may lead to lower CFR, whereas passage through children may have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. Methodology: We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish historical demographic and population data. Results: Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. Conclusions and implications: CFR predictors differed among diseases according to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases. PMID:26884415

  2. Global Surface Temperatures of the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, J. P.; Paige, D. A.; Greenhagen, B. T.; Sefton-Nash, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Diviner instrument aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is providing the most comprehensive view of how regoliths on airless body store and exchange thermal energy with the space environment. Approximately a quarter trillion calibrated radiance measurements of the Moon, acquired over 5.5 years by Diviner, have been compiled into a 0.5° resolution global dataset with a 0.25 hour local time resolution. Maps generated with this dataset provide a global perspective of the surface energy balance of the Moon and reveal the complex and extreme nature of the lunar surface thermal environment. Daytime maximum temperatures are sensitive to the radiative properties of the surface and are ~387-397 K at the equator, dropping to ~95 K before sunrise. Asymmetry between the morning and afternoon temperatures is observed due to the thermal inertia of the regolith with the dusk terminator ~30 K warmer than the dawn terminator at the equator. An increase in albedo with incidence angle is required to explain the observed temperatures with latitude. At incidence angles >40° topography and surface roughness result in increasing anisothermality between spectral passbands and scatter in temperatures. Minimum temperatures reflect variations in thermophysical properties (Figure). Impact craters are found to modify regolith properties over large distances. The thermal signature of Tycho is asymmetric consistent with an oblique impact coming from the west. Some prominent crater rays are visible in the thermal data and require material with a higher thermal inertial than nominal regolith. The influence of the formation of the Orientale basin on the regolith properties is observable over a substantial portion of the western hemisphere despite its age (~3.8 Gyr), and may have contributed to mixing of highland and mare material on the southwest margin of Oceanus Procellarum where the gradient in radiative properties at the mare-highland contact are observed to be broad (~200 km).

  3. Modeling monthly mean variation of the solar global irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vindel, J. M.; Polo, J.; Zarzalejo, L. F.

    2015-01-01

    The monthly mean variation of the solar global reaching the Earth's surface has been characterized at a global level by a regression model. This model considers the monthly variation itself (to different horizons and even the maximum annual variation) as the study variable, and it is applied without using data corresponding to measured meteorological variable. Two explicative variables have been used, the variation of the extraterrestrial irradiation and the variation of the clear sky global horizontal irradiation. The work has been carried out from datasets including average global daily solar irradiation for each month of the year measured on the ground. The model quality has been proven to be very dependent of the temporal variation considered, in such a way that higher variations, that is to say, higher distances between months, lead to an improvement in the model outcomes.

  4. Measuring global temperatures: Their analysis and interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

    2011-07-01

    This book documents how global surface temperature anomalies (GSTAs) and multidecadal trends are obtained. While ocean heat content change is a more robust metric with which to diagnose global warming, GSTAs have become a primary icon in the climate change debate. The book begins with a brief overview chapter of the Earth's radiative energy budget followed by two chapters on measurement approaches to monitoring temperature, including an interesting discussion of temperature scales. Chapters 4-6 concern measuring land and ocean temperatures. Chapters 7 and 8 discuss global networks and how point measurements are converted to obtain global averages. Chapter 9 focuses on changes in time of temperatures, including maximum and minimum values. This is followed by a short chapter on temperature profiles through the atmosphere and a final chapter of recommendations for future observations of this metric.

  5. Global color and albedo variations on Io

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEwen, A.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three multispectral mosaics of Io have been produced from Voyager imaging data: a global mosaic from each of the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 data sets and a high-resolution mosaic of the region surrounding the volcano Ra Patera. The mosaics are maps of normal albedo and color in accurate geometric map formats. Io's photometric behavior, mapped with a two-image technique, is spatially variable, especially in the bright white areas. The disk-integrated color and albedo of the satellite have been remarkably constant over recent decades, despite the volcanic activity and the many differences between Voyager 1 and 2 images (acquired just 4 months apart). This constancy is most likely due to the consistent occurrence of large Pele-type plumes with relatively dark, red deposits in the region from long 240 to 360??. A transient brightening southeast of Pele during the Voyager 1 encounter was probably due to real changes in surface and/or atmospheric materials, rather than to photometric behavior. The intrinsic spectral variability of Io, as seen in a series of two-dimensional histograms of the multispectral mosaics, consists of continuous variation among three major spectral end members. The data were mapped into five spectral units to compare them with laboratory measurements of candidate surface materials and to show the planimetric distributions. Unit 1 is best fit by the spectral reflectance of ordinary elemental sulfur, and it is closely associated with the Peletype plume deposits. Unit 2 is strongly confined to the polar caps above about latitude ??50??, but its composition is unknown. Unit 5 is probably SO2 with relatively minor contamination; it is concentrated in the equatorial region and near the long-lived Prometheus-type plumes. Units 3 and 4 are gradational between units 1 and 5. In addition to SO2 and elemental sulfur, other plausible components of the surface are polysulfur oxides, FeCl2, Na2S, and NaHS. ?? 1988.

  6. Global surface temperature changes since the 1850s

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, P.D.

    1996-12-31

    Temperature data from land and marine areas form the basis for many studies of climatic variations on local, regional and hemispheric scales, and the global mean temperature is a fundamental measure of the state of the climate system. In this paper it is shown that the surface temperature of the globe has warmed by about 0.5{degrees}C since the mid-nineteenth century. This is an important part of the evidence in the {open_quote}global warming{close_quote} debate. How certain are we about the magnitude of the warming? Where has it been greatest? In this paper, these and related issues will be addressed.

  7. Volcanic Carbon: Global Variations in Gas Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, T. P.; de Moor, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Magmas degas volatiles during ascent from the mantle and mafic melts with 7 wt% H2O attain volatile saturation at ~15km depth. Magmatic gases are dominated by H2O, CO2 and S species, independent of their tectonic setting. At rift volcanoes, C is sourced from the mantle whereas arc volcanoes sample both mantle and subducted C. Volcanic gases provide detailed information on volatile sources and degassing processes. Comparison of fumarole gases with melt inclusions and volcanic plumes shows that most fumaroles sample degassed magma. Water, CO2 and S vary significantly between tectonic settings. The Kuriles, Japan, and Kamchatka have H2O/CO2 of 40 to 800 while other arcs such as the Cascades, Central America, S. America, Java, and Aeolian have ratios of 1 to 70. Gases from rift volcanoes have H2O/CO2 between 3 and 9. Some of these variations are due to addition of meteoric and subducted water, as evidenced by O and H isotopes. Speciation of H and C in volcanic gases are typically controlled by redox buffer reactions imposed by the Fe3+-Fe2+ (i.e. QFM) rock buffer or the SO2-H2S gas buffer. In more exotic systems such as Poás, hydrothermal S phases such as liquid native S can play a role in high T gas C and H speciation. Arcs dominate the global subaerial volcanic CO2 emission budget and arc total fluxes vary significantly i.e. only about 2 t/yr/km from the Aleutians and about 65 t/yr/km from Central America. Reasons for this are poorly constrained and may include variability in subducted material or slab/mantle conditions at depth. A large uncertainty results from use of generalized arc-wide C/S ratios, used in calculating C fluxes, and the paucity of data for remote arcs. Resolving C fluxes from subducted versus mantle or crustal (assimilated) C relies on C isotope ratios, which can vary spatially and temporally as a function of source or degassing processes. Therefore, when considering the deep C cycle and Cexchange between the interior and surface of the Earth

  8. Global variations in abyssal peridotite compositions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warren, Jessica M.

    2016-04-01

    Abyssal peridotites are ultramafic rocks collected from mid-ocean ridges that are the residues of adiabatic decompression melting. Their compositions provide information on the degree of melting and melt-rock interaction involved in the formation of oceanic lithosphere, as well as providing constraints on pre-existing mantle heterogeneities. This review presents a compilation of abyssal peridotite geochemical data (modes, mineral major elements, and clinopyroxene trace elements) for > 1200 samples from 53 localities on 6 major ridge systems. On the basis of composition and petrography, peridotites are classified into one of five lithological groups: (1) residual peridotite, (2) dunite, (3) gabbro-veined and/or plagioclase-bearing peridotite, (4) pyroxenite-veined peridotite, and (5) other types of melt-added peridotite. Almost a third of abyssal peridotites are veined, indicating that the oceanic lithospheric mantle is more fertile, on average, than estimates based on residual peridotites alone imply. All veins appear to have formed recently during melt transport beneath the ridge, though some pyroxenites may be derived from melting of recycled oceanic crust. A limited number of samples are available at intermediate and fast spreading rates, with samples from the East Pacific Rise indicating high degrees of melting. At slow and ultra-slow spreading rates, residual abyssal peridotites define a large (0-15% modal clinopyroxene and spinel Cr# = 0.1-0.6) compositional range. These variations do not match the prediction for how degree of melting should vary as a function of spreading rate. Instead, the compositional ranges of residual peridotites are derived from a combination of melting, melt-rock interaction and pre-existing compositional variability, where melt-rock interaction is used here as a general term to refer to the wide range of processes that can occur during melt transport in the mantle. Globally, ~ 10% of abyssal peridotites are refractory (0

  9. Sea water temperature variation east of Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Fuh

    Temperature, wave and wind data over two years off Ho Peng, Shi Ti and Jang Yuan of east Taiwan are analyzed to study their seasonal variations. A model for predicting the mixed layer thickness is developed by use of wave data. The vertical profile of temperature indicates that there are basically three layers; mixed layer, thermocline layer and deep cold layer. The surface mixed layer appears in winter and disappears in summer. While surface water is warmer in summer than in winter, water at a depth of 50 m is warmer in winter than in summer. The seasonal variation in the deep cold layer is weak. The sea surface temperature is generally higher offshore than nearshore. The surface temperature off east Taiwan is almost equal to that in Taiwan Strait in summer, but in winter it is about 4°C warmer off northeast Taiwan than in the northeast of the Taiwan Strait, if compared at the same latitude. This is an effect of the seasonal variation of the Kuroshio. A model is developed for predicting the mixed layer thickness in terms of the input wave energy. The model successfully accounts for the observed features.

  10. Effects of temperature variation on MOSFET dosimetry.

    PubMed

    Cheung, Tsang; Butson, Martin J; Yu, Peter K N

    2004-07-01

    This note investigates temperature effects on dosimetry using a metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) for radiotherapy x-ray treatment. This was performed by analysing the dose response and threshold voltage outputs for MOSFET dosimeters as a function of ambient temperature. Results have shown that the clinical semiconductor dosimetry system (CSDS) MOSFET provides stable dose measurements with temperatures varying from 15 degrees C up to 40 degrees C. Thus standard irradiations performed at room temperature can be directly compared to in vivo dose assessments performed at near body temperature without a temperature correction function. The MOSFET dosimeter threshold voltage varies with temperature and this level is dependent on the dose history of the MOSFET dosimeter. However, the variation can be accounted for in the measurement method. For accurate dosimetry, the detector should be placed for approximately 60 s on a patient to allow thermal equilibrium before measurements are taken with the final reading performed whilst still attached to the patient or conversely left for approximately 120 s after removal from the patient if initial readout was measured at room temperature to allow temperature equilibrium to be established. PMID:15285264

  11. Global patterns in lake surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Reilly, C.; Sharma, S.; Gray, D.; Hampton, S. E.; Read, J. S.; Rowley, R.; McIntyre, P. B.; Lenters, J. D.; Schneider, P.; Hook, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Temperature profoundly affects dynamics in the water bodieson which human societies depend worldwide. Even relatively small water temperature changes can alter lake thermal structure with implications for water level, nutrient cycling, ecosystem productivity, and food web dynamics. As air temperature increases with climate change and human land use transforms watersheds, rising water temperatures have been reported for individual lakes or regions, but a global synthesis is lacking; such a synthesis is foundational for understanding the state of freshwater resources. We investigated global patterns in lake surface water temperatures between 1985 and 2009 using in-situ and satellite data from 236 lakes. We demonstrate that lakes are warming significantly around the globe, at an average rate of 0.34 °C per decade. The breadth of lakes in this study allowed examination of the diversity of drivers across global lakes, and highlighted the importance of ice cover in determining the suite of morphological and climate drivers for lake temperature dynamics. These empirical results are consistent with modeled predictions of climate change, taking into account the extent to which water warming can be modulated by local environmental conditions and thus defy simple correlations with air temperature. The water temperature changes we report have fundamental importance for thermal structure and ecosystem functioning in global water resources; recognition of the extent to which lakes are currently in transition should have broad implications for regional and global models as well as for management.

  12. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  13. Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; C. D. Jones,; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  14. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; de Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.

    2015-02-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  15. Stellar luminosity variations and global warming.

    PubMed

    Foukal, P

    1994-04-01

    Recent studies indicate that variation in the sun's luminosity is less than that observed in many other stars of similar magnetic activity. Current findings also indicate that in more active stars, the attenuation by faculae of sunspot luminosity modulation is less effective than in the sun at present. The sun could thus become photometrically more variable (and dimmer) if its magnetic activity exceeded present levels. But the levels of solar activity required for this to occur are not observed in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 records over the past several millennia, which indicates that such an increase in amplitude of surface magnetism-driven variations in solar luminosity is unlikely in the present epoch. PMID:17749020

  16. High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

  17. Global temperature distributions from OGO-6 6300 A airglow measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blamont, J. E.; Luton, J. M.; Nisbet, J. S.

    1974-01-01

    The OGO-6 6300 A airglow temperature measurements have been used to develop models of the global temperature distributions under solstice and equinox conditions for the altitude region from 240 to 300 km and for times ranging from dawn in this altitude region to shortly after sunset. The distributions are compared with models derived from satellite orbital decay and incoherent scatter sounding. The seasonal variation of the temperature as a function of latitude is shown to be very different from that derived from static diffusion models with constant boundary conditions.

  18. Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Analysis for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Global and Regional Variations and Trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the

  19. Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2008-01-01

    Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

  20. Effects of Fertile Mantle Compositional Variation and Spreading Rate Variation on the Working of Global Ocean Ridges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Y.; O'Hara, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Mantle temperature variation, plate spreading rate variation and mantle compositional variation have been considered to be the three fundamental variables that govern the working of global ocean ridges [1]. An analysis demonstrates that mantle compositional variation exerts the primary control on ocean ridge processes; it determines (1) variation in both composition and mode of mantle mineralogy, (2) variation of mantle density, (3) variation of ridge axial depth, (4) source-inherited MORB compositional variation, (4) density-controlled variation in the amplitude of mantle upwelling, (5) apparent variation in the extent of melting, and (6) the correlated variation of MORB chemistry with ridge axial depth [2]. The above interpretations are reinforced by the updated MORB database [3]. The new database also confirms spreading rate control on the extent of melting as shown previously [4]. Mantle temperature variation could play a part, but its overstated role [3,5] results from a basic error (1) in treating ridge axial depth variation as evidence of mantle temperature variation by ignoring the intrinsic control of mantle composition, (2) in treating "mantle plume" influenced ridges (e.g., Iceland) as normal ridges of plate spreading origin, and (3) in treating low Vs at greater depths (> 300 km vs. < 200 km beneath ridges) beneath these "mantle plume" influenced ridges as evidence for hot ridge mantle. In order to understand the working of global ocean ridges, we must avoid plume-influenced ridges (e.g., in the vicinity of Iceland) and remove/average out data from such ridges. As a result, the correlations (e.g., between ridge axial depth, mantle low Vs anomaly, and some geochemical parameters) required for the interpretation of mantle temperature control all disappear. There is thus no evidence for large mantle temperature variation away from ridges influenced by "mantle plumes". References: [1] Niu et al., 2001, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 186, 383-399; [2] Niu & O

  1. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  2. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    the Arctic rivers because the timing of ice breakup is predicted too late in the year due to the lack of including a mechanical breakup mechanism. Moreover, surface water temperatures for tropical rivers were overestimated, most likely due to an overestimation of rainfall temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. The spatiotemporal variation of water temperature reveals large temperature differences between water and atmosphere for the higher latitudes, while considerable lateral transport of heat can be observed for rivers crossing hydroclimatic zones, such as the Nile, the Mississippi, and the large rivers flowing to the Arctic. Overall, our model results show promise for future projection of global surface freshwater temperature under global change.

  3. Estimating pre-industrial global temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, Ed; Ortega, Pablo; Suckling, Emma; Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabi; Jones, Phil; Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Tim; Mignot, Juliette; Thorne, Peter; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

    2016-04-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process has recently agreed to try and limit global temperature rise to `well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels'. But what period is `pre-industrial'? Remarkably, perhaps, this is not defined within the UNFCCC or its many agreements and protocols. Neither was the term used in the IPCC's fifth assessment report (AR5) when discussing when particular temperature levels might be reached, due to the lack of a robust definition. Here, we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a period to call pre-industrial, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period to choose, but we suggest that 1720-1800 is the optimal choice. We also attempt to estimate the change in global temperatures since this pre-industrial period using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations and proxy evidence. We discuss how such an assessment might be improved in future and conclude that 2015 was likely the first year in which global temperatures were more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels.

  4. Global color and albedo variations on Triton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcewen, Alfred S.

    1990-01-01

    Global multispectral mosaics of Triton have been produced from Voyager approach images; six spectral units are defined and mapped. The margin of the south polar cap (SPC) is scalloped and ranges in latitude from + 10 deg to -30 deg. A bright fringe is closely associated with the cap's margin; form it, diffuse bright rays extend north-northeast for hundreds of kilometers. Thus, the rays may consist of fringe materials that were redistributed by northward-going Coriolis-deflected winds. From 1977 to 1989, Triton's full-disk spectrum changed from markedly red and UV-dark to nearly neutral white and UV-bright. This spectral change can be explained by new deposition of nitrogen frost over both the northern hemisphere and parts of a formerly redder SPC. Frost deposition in the southern hemisphere during southern summer is possible over relatively high albedo areas of the cap (Stansberry et al., 1990), which helps to explain the apparent stability of the unexpectedly large SPC and the presence of the bright fringe.

  5. Possibility to explain global climate variations by earthquakes influence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molchanov, O.

    2009-12-01

    An additional natural source of the global warming could be heat flux from seismicity. Estimated earthquakes energy release in the near-equatorial Pacific area during a year ≈ 1020 J that is equivalent to the energy released in the detonation about one million atomic bombs of Hiroshima class and produce average power flux due to seismicity ≈ 0.3-1 W/m2 . We have analyzed together the slow climate temperature variations in the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean area (SSTOI indices) and crustal seismic activity in the same region during 1973-2008 time period using correlation analysis and found similarity in seismic and ENSO periodicities (the latter with time lag about 1.5 years). Trends of the processes are also similar showing about 2 times increase in average seismic energy release during the whole period of analysis and conventional 0.10C/(10 years) increase in SSTOI index anomalies. Our main conclusion is on real possibility of climate-seismicity coupling. It is rather probable that at least partially climate ENSO oscillations and temperature anomaly trends are induced by similar variation in seismicity. A mechanism of several years periodicity in the seismic activity is unclear at present. Probably it is initiated in the upper mantle of the Earth (depth 600-700 km) and then penetrates in the crust as so-called deformation (or stress) wave with time delay from 3 to 10 years [1] [1] O.A. Molchanov and S. Uyeda, Upward migration of earthquake hypocenters in Japan,Kurile- Kamchatka and Sunda subduction zones, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 34, 423-430, 2009; doi:10.1016/j.pce.2008.09.011.

  6. Photospheric Temperature Variations near the Solar Limb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivian, Martin; Hudson, H. S.; Lin, R. P.; Zahid, H. J.

    2010-05-01

    We use observations from the solar aspect sensor of RHESSI to characterize the latitude dependence of the temperature of the photosphere near the solar limb. Previous observations had suggested the presence of a polar temperature excess as large as 1.5 K. The RHESSI observations, made with a rotating telescope in space, have great advantages in the rejection of systematic errors in the very precise photometry required for such an observation. This photometry is differential, i.e. relative to a mean limb-darkening function. The data base consists of about 1,000 images per day from linear CCDs with 1.73 arc sec square pixels, observing a narrow band (12nm FWHM) at 670 nm. Each image shows a chord crossing the disk at a different location as the spacecraft rotates and precesses around its average solar pointing. We fit an average limb-darkening function and reassemble the residuals into synoptic maps of differential intensity variations as a function of position angle. We further mask these images against SOHO/EIT 284A images in order to eliminate magnetic regions. The analysis establishes a limit on the quadrupole dependence of temperature (brightness) on position angle of order 0.04 K, with a comparable uncertainty.

  7. Variations in Global Precipitation: Climate-scale to Floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Variations in global precipitation from climate-scale to small scale are examined using satellite-based analyses of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27- year (1979-2005) monthly dataset from the GPCP. In addition to global patterns associated with phenomena such as ENSO, the data set is explored for evidence of longterm change. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate a small upward trend in the Tropics (25S-25N), especially over ocean. Techniques are derived to isolate and eliminate variations due to ENS0 and major volcanic eruptions and the significance of the trend is examined. The status of TRMM estimates is examined in terms of evaluating and improving the long-term global data set. To look at rainfall variations on a much smaller scale TRMM data is used in combination with observations from other satellites to produce a 3-hr resolution, eight-year data set for examination of weather events and for practical applications such as detecting floods. Characteristics of the data set are presented and examples of recent flood events are examined.

  8. Diurnal variation of the global electric circuit from clustered thunderstorms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchins, Michael L.; Holzworth, Robert H.; Brundell, James B.

    2014-01-01

    The diurnal variation of the global electric circuit is investigated using the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), which has been shown to identify nearly all thunderstorms (using WWLLN data from 2005). To create an estimate of global electric circuit activity, a clustering algorithm is applied to the WWLLN data set to identify global thunderstorms from 2010 to 2013. Annual, seasonal, and regional thunderstorm activity is investigated in this new WWLLN thunderstorm data set in order to estimate the source behavior of the global electric circuit. Through the clustering algorithm, the total number of active thunderstorms are counted every 30 min creating a measure of the global electric circuit source function. The thunderstorm clusters are compared to precipitation radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission satellite and with case studies of thunderstorm evolution. The clustering algorithm reveals an average of 660±70 thunderstorms active at any given time with a peak-to-peak variation of 36%. The highest number of thunderstorms occurs in November (720±90), and the lowest number occurs in January (610±80). Thunderstorm cluster and electrified storm cloud activity are combined with thunderstorm overflight current measurements to estimate the global electric circuit thunderstorm contribution current to be 1090±70 A with a variation of 24%. By utilizing the global coverage and high time resolution of WWLLN, the total active thunderstorm count and current is shown to be less than previous estimates based on compiled climatologies.

  9. Persistence analysis of daily mean air temperature variation in Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matcharashvili, Teimuraz; Chelidze, Tamaz; Zhukova, Natalia; Mepharidze, Ekaterine; Sborshchikov, Alexander

    2010-05-01

    Extrapolation of observed linear trends is common practice in climate change researches on different scales. In this respect it is important, that though global warming is well established, the question of persistence of trends on regional scales remain controversial. Indeed, climate change for specific region and time by definition includes more than the simple average of weather conditions. Either random events or long-term changes, or more often combinations of them, can bring about significant swings in a variety of climate indicators from one time period to the next. Therefore in order to achieve further understanding of dynamics of climate change the character of stable peculiarities of analyzed dynamics should be investigated. Analysis of the character of long range correlations in climatological time series or peculiarities of their inherent memory is motivated exactly by this goal. Such analysis carried out on a different scales may help to understand spatial and temporal features of regional climate change. In present work the problem of persistence of observed trends in air temperature time series in Georgia was investigated. Longest available mean daily temperature time series of Tbilisi (1890-2008) were analyzed. Time series on shorter time scales of five stations in the West and East Georgia also were considered as well as monthly mean temperature time series of five stations. Additionally, temporally and spatially averaged daily and monthly mean air temperature time series were analyzed. Extent of persistence in mentioned time series were evaluated using R/S analysis calculation. Detrended and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis as well as multi scaling analysis based on CWT have been used. Our results indicate that variation of daily or monthly mean temperatures reveals clear antipersistence on whole available time scale. It seems that antipersistence on global scale is general characteristics of mean air temperature variation and is not

  10. Analysis of global and hemispheric temperature records and prognosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey

    2015-06-01

    Climate changes are connected to long term variations of global and hemispheric temperatures, which are important for the work out of socio-political strategy for the near future. In the paper the annual temperature time series are modeled by linear multiple regression to identify important climate forcings including external climate factors such as atmospheric CO2 content, volcanic emissions, and the total solar irradiation as well as internal factors such as El Niño-Southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Adjusted temperatures were determined by removal of all significant influences except CO2. The adjusted temperatures follow a linear dependence toward the logarithm of the CO2 content, and the coefficient of determination is about 0.91. The evolution of the adjusted temperatures suggests that the warming due to CO2 from the beginning of the studied here time interval in 1900 has never stopped and is going on up to now. The global warming rate deduced from the adjusted temperatures since 1980 is about 0.14 ± 0.02 °C/decade. The warming rate reported in the IPCC assessment report 4 based on observed global surface temperature set is about 20% higher, due to the warming by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation additional to the anthropogenic warming. The predicted temperature evolution based on long time changes of CO2 and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index shows that the Northern Hemispheric temperatures are modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation influence and will not change significantly to about 2040, after that they will increase speedily, just like during the last decades of the past century. The temperatures of the Southern Hemisphere will increase almost linearly and don't show significant periodic changes due to Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The concrete warming rates of course are strongly depending on the future atmospheric CO2 content.

  11. The contribution of subsistence to global human cranial variation.

    PubMed

    Noback, Marlijn L; Harvati, Katerina

    2015-03-01

    Diet-related cranial variation in modern humans is well documented on a regional scale, with ample examples of cranial changes related to the agricultural transition. However, the influence of subsistence strategy on global cranial variation is less clear, having been confirmed only for the mandible, and dietary effects beyond agriculture are often neglected. Here we identify global patterns of subsistence-related human cranial shape variation. We analysed a worldwide sample of 15 populations (n = 255) with known subsistence strategies using 3-D landmark datasets designed to capture the shape of different units of the cranium. Results show significant correlations between global cranial shape and diet, especially for temporalis muscle shape and general cranial shape. Importantly, the differences between populations with either a plant- or an animal-based diet are more pronounced than those between agriculturalists and hunter-gatherers, suggesting that the influence of diet as driver of cranial variation is not limited to Holocene transitions to agricultural subsistence. Dental arch shape did not correlate with subsistence pattern, possibly indicating the high plasticity of this region of the face in relation to age, disease and individual use of the dentition. Our results highlight the importance of subsistence strategy as one of the factors underlying the evolution of human geographic cranial variation. PMID:25661439

  12. Global Patterns in Leaf Respiration and its Temperature Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heskel, M.; Atkin, O. K.; O'Sullivan, O. S.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Weerasinghe, L. K.; Penillard, A.; Egerton, J. J. G.; Creek, D.; Bloomfield, K. J.; Xiang, J.; Sinca, F.; Stangl, Z.; Martinez-de la Torre, A.; Griffin, K. L.; Huntingford, C.; Hurry, V.; Meir, P.; Turnbull, M.

    2015-12-01

    Leaf respiration (R) represents a massive flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Currently, neither physiological models nor terrestrial biosphere models are able to disentangle sources of variation in leaf R among different plant species and contrasting environments. Similarly, such models do not adequately describe the short-term temperature (T) response of R, which can lead to inaccurate representation of leaf R in simulation models of regional and global terrestrial carbon cyling. Even minor differences in the underlying basal rate of leaf R and/or shape of the T-response curve can significantly impact estimates of carbon released and stored in ecosystems. Given this, we recently assembled and analyzed two new global databases (arctic-to-tropics) of leaf R and its short-term T-dependence. The results highlight variation in basal leaf R among species and across global gradients in T and aridity, with leaf R at a standard T (e.g. 25°C) being greatest in plants growing in the cold, dry Arctic and lowest in the warm, moist tropics. Arctic plants also exhibit higher rates of leaf R at a given photosynthetic capacity or leaf N concentration than their tropical counterparts. The results also point to convergence in the short-term temperature response of respiration across biomes and plant functional types. The applicability and significance of the short-term T-response of R for simulation models of plant and ecosystem carbon fluxes will be discussed.

  13. The seasons, global temperature, and precession

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, D.J.

    1995-04-07

    Analysis of instrumental temperature records beginning in 1659 shows that in much of the world the dominant frequency of the seasons is one cycle per anomalistic year (the time from perihelion to perihelion, 365.25964 days), not one cycle per tropical year (the time from equinox to equinox, 365.24220 days), and that the timing of the annual temperature cycle is controlled by perihelion. The assumption that the seasons were timed by the equinoxes has caused many statistical analyses of climate data to be badly biased. Coherence between changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle and those in the average temperature show that between 1854 and 1922 there were small temperature variations, probably of solar origin. Since 1922, the phase of the Northern Hemisphere coherence between these quantities switched from 0{degrees} to 180{degrees} and implies that solar variability cannot be the sole cause of the increasing temperature over the last century. About 1940, the phase patterns of the previous 300 years began to change and now appear to be changing at an unprecedented rate. The average change in phase is now coherent with the logarithm of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. 80 refs., 13 figs.

  14. The seasons, global temperature, and precession

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Analysis of instrumental temperature records beginning in 1659 shows that in much of the world the dominant frequency of the seasons is one cycle per anomalistic year (the time from perihelion to perihelion, 265.25964 days), not one cycle per tropical year (the time from equinox to equinox, 265.24220 days), and that the timing of the annual temperature cycle is controlled by perihelion. The assumption that the seasons were timed by the equinoxes has caused many statistical analyses of climate data to be badly biased. Coherence between changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle and those in the average temperature show that between 1854 and 1922 there were small temperature variations, probable of solar origin. Since 1922, the phase of the Northern Hemisphere coherence between these quantities switched from 0{degrees} to 180{degrees} and implies that solar variability cannot be the sole cause of the increasing temperature over the last century. About 1940, the phase patterns of the previous 300 years began to change and now appear to be changing at an unprecendented rate. The average change in phase is not coherent with the logarithm of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration.

  15. A global monthly sea surface temperature climatology

    SciTech Connect

    Shea, D.J.; Trenberth, K.E.; Reynolds, R.W. NOAA, Climate Analysis Center, Washington, DC )

    1992-09-01

    The paper presents a new global 2 deg x 2 deg monthly sea surface temperature (SST) climatology, referred here to as the Shea-Trenberth-Reynolds (STR) climatology, which was derived by modifying a 1950-1979-based SST climatology from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC), by using data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set to improve the SST estimates in the regions of the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream. A comparison of the STR climatology with the Alexander and Mobley SST climatology showed that the STR climatology is warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, and colder poleward of 45 deg S. 22 refs.

  16. Examination of parameter variations in the U. S. Navy Global Ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, Carolyn A.; Ridout, James A.; McLay, Justin G.

    2011-10-01

    The impact of parameter variations on the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ensemble performance is examined, and subsets of ensemble members are used to identify the relative impact of the individual parameters. Two sets of parameter variations are considered. The first set has variations in the parametrization of cumulus convection only. The second set has variations in both convection and boundary layer parametrizations. In the tropics, parameter variations significantly increase ensemble spread in wind and temperature fields, and significantly reduce Brier scores for low-level wind speed and temperature, primarily through improvements to the resolution (the impact in the extratropics is negligible). There are also small but significant improvements in the ensemble mean tropical cyclone track forecasts. For the metrics considered here, the second set of parameter variations outperforms the first set. Examination of the spread within ensemble subsets suggests that the parameter with the biggest overall impact is one that helps to control the convective updraft parcel temperature deficit at cloud base level. Variations in the von Kármán constant significantly increase ensemble spread in the low-level tropical winds near the date line, and in the low-level temperature field throughout the tropics and subtropics.

  17. Global Biomass Variation and its Geodynamic Effects, 1982-1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodell, M.; Chao, B. F.; Au, A. Y.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.

    2005-01-01

    Redistribution of mass near Earth's surface alters its rotation, gravity field, and geocenter location. Advanced techniques for measuring these geodetic variations now exist, but the ability to attribute the observed modes to individual Earth system processes has been hampered by a shortage of reliable global data on such processes, especially hydrospheric processes. To address one aspect of this deficiency, 17 yrs of monthly, global maps of vegetation biomass were produced by applying field-based relationships to satellite-derived vegetation type and leaf area index. The seasonal variability of biomass was estimated to be as large as 5 kg m(exp -2). Of this amount, approximately 4 kg m(exp -2) is due to vegetation water storage variations. The time series of maps was used to compute geodetic anomalies, which were then compared with existing geodetic observations as well as the estimated measurement sensitivity of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). For gravity, the seasonal amplitude of biomass variations may be just within GRACE'S limits of detectability, but it is still an order of magnitude smaller than current observation uncertainty using the satellite-laser-ranging technique. The contribution of total biomass variations to seasonal polar motion amplitude is detectable in today's measurement, but it is obscured by contributions from various other sources, some of which are two orders of magnitude larger. The influence on the length of day is below current limits of detectability. Although the nonseasonal geodynamic signals show clear interannual variability, they are too small to be detected.

  18. Variation in Plant Traits Explains Global Biogeographic Variation in the Abundance of Major Forest Functional Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Contrasting leaf types (needle vs. broadleaf) with different lifespans (annual vs. perennial) represent different adaptive strategies of plants under different environmental conditions. Previous studies explained adaptive advantages of different strategies using empirical models but cannot adequately explain the co-dominance of multiple plant functional types (PFTs) as observed in many parts of the world. Here we used a process-based model to explore whether observed inter- and intra-PFT variation in key plant traits can explain global biogeographic variation in co-dominance of major forest functional types. Using a parameter screening method, we identified the four most important plant traits for simulating annual net primary production (NPP) using the Australian Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model (CABLE). Using ensemble CABLE simulations, we estimated the fraction of global land cover attributed to each PFT by comparing the simulated NPP for all three PFTs at each land point, globally. Our results were consistent with land area cover fractions of major forest types estimated from remote sensing data products; i.e., evergreen needle-leaf forests dominate in boreal regions, evergreen broadleaf forests dominate in tropical regions, and deciduous broadleaf forests are distributed widely across a broad range of environmental conditions. More importantly our approach successfully explained a paradox that has puzzled ecologists for over a century: why evergreen leaf types dominate in both boreal and tropical regions. We conclude that variation in and co-variation between key plant traits can explain significant fractions of global biogeographic variation of three major forest types, and should be taken into account when simulating global vegetation dynamics.

  19. Air temperature variation across the seed cotton dryer mixpoint

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Eighteen tests were conducted in six gins in the fall of 2008 to measure air temperature variation within various heated air seed cotton drying systems with the purpose of: checking validation of recommendations by a professional engineering society and measuring air temperature variation across the...

  20. High temperature and temperature variation undermine future disease susceptibility in a population of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus.

    PubMed

    Pamminger, Tobias; Steier, Thomas; Tragust, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Environmental temperature and temperature variation can have strong effects on the outcome of host-parasite interactions. Whilst such effects have been reported for different host systems, long-term consequences of pre-infection temperatures on host susceptibility and immunity remain understudied. Here, we show that experiencing both a biologically relevant increase in temperature and temperature variation undermines future disease susceptibility of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus when challenged with a pathogen under a constant temperature regime. In light of the economic and ecological importance of many social insects, our results emphasise the necessity to take the hosts' temperature history into account when studying host-parasite interactions under both natural and laboratory conditions, especially in the face of global change. PMID:27206570

  1. High temperature and temperature variation undermine future disease susceptibility in a population of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pamminger, Tobias; Steier, Thomas; Tragust, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Environmental temperature and temperature variation can have strong effects on the outcome of host-parasite interactions. Whilst such effects have been reported for different host systems, long-term consequences of pre-infection temperatures on host susceptibility and immunity remain understudied. Here, we show that experiencing both a biologically relevant increase in temperature and temperature variation undermines future disease susceptibility of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus when challenged with a pathogen under a constant temperature regime. In light of the economic and ecological importance of many social insects, our results emphasise the necessity to take the hosts' temperature history into account when studying host-parasite interactions under both natural and laboratory conditions, especially in the face of global change.

  2. Global lake surface water temperatures from ATSR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacCallum, Stuart; Merchant, Christopher J.; Layden, Aisling

    2013-04-01

    The ATSR Reprocessing for Climate - Lake (ARC-Lake) project applies optimal estimation (OE) retrievals and probabilistic cloud screening methods to provide lake surface water temperature (LSWT) estimates from the series of (Advanced) Along-Track Scanning Radiometers. This methodology is generic (i.e. applicable to all lakes) as variations in physical properties such as elevation, salinity, and atmospheric conditions are accounted for through the forward modelling of observed radiances. In the initial phases of ARC-Lake, LSWTs were obtained for 258 of Earth's largest lakes. In the final phase of the project, the dataset is extended by applying the OE methodology to smaller lakes, providing LSWT data from 1991 to 2012 for approximately 1000 lakes. In this presentation we will provide an overview of the ARC-Lake project, its publically available data products and some applications of these products.

  3. Toughness variation with test temperature and

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    German, R. M.; Hanafee, J. E.; Digiallonardo, S. L.

    1984-01-01

    A two phase heavy alloy composite based on 95 W-3.5 Ni-1.5 Fe (wt pct) was fabricated from elemental powders by liquid phase sintering. Past reports on the heavy alloys indicate considerable disagreement concerning cooling rate effects on toughness. The present experiments determined the effect of both cooling rate and test temperature on the properties of the 95 W heavy alloy. This alloy undergoes a ductile to brittle transition with decreasing test temperature; the transition temperature is close to room temperature. The cooling rate from post-sintering anneals carried out at temperatures greater than 1000 °C has a large influence on toughness; rapid quenching gives superior toughness. These findings support an impurity segregation explanation for embrittlement in the heavy alloys.

  4. Microchannel plate modal gain variations with temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slater, David C.; Timothy, J. G.

    1993-01-01

    Measurements of the modal gain of two high-gain curved-channel microchannel plates (MCPs) at various operating temperatures are presented. Both MCPs were fabricated from the Long Life glass with 12-micron diam channels on 15-micron centers. The modal gain was found to decrease with increasing temperature at a rate of -0.1 percent C. This reduction of gain with temperature is attributed primarily to an axial temperature gradient along each MCP channel creating a nonuniform electric field within the channel that lowers the effective output gain. A lowering of the secondary electron yield resulting from increased phonon scattering of secondary electrons released within the walls of the MCP channels was assessed, but was found to have a negligible contribution to the drop in gain with temperature.

  5. Antarctic sea ice and temperature variations

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, J.E.; Zwally, H.J.; Weatherly, J.W.

    1992-03-01

    Monthly antarctic station temperatures are used in conjunction with grids of sea ice coverage in order to evaluate temporal trends and the strength of associations between the two variables at lags of up to several seasons. The trends of temperature are predominantly positive in winter and summer, but predominantly negative in spring. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Cross-correlations between concurrent anomalies of the two variables are negative over most of the continent and are strongest over the Antarctic Peninsula, especially in winter. In regions other than the Antarctic Peninsula, lag correlations between seasonal anomalies are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures.

  6. Connection between variations of the atmosphere temperature profile and variations of the meson component intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blokh, Y. L.; Rogovaya, S. I.

    1985-01-01

    The influence of temperature effects on intensity variations of the cosmic ray meson component were studied. The connection between the temperature variation delta T and the intensity variation delta I was established by using the temperature coefficient density technique. To realize how many devices are needed on the Earth for predicting the temperature variation of the atmosphere profile with a reasonable accuracy, IO isobaric levels and IO were calculated. The set of initial elements of the cosmic ray mesons are varied and it is shown that the matrix of the coefficients B sub ij is rather sensitive to their choice. It is found that if for the calculations of the atmospheric temperature variations the model is used, the number of meson components, essentially exceeding 3, should be considered.

  7. On the global variations of terrestrial heat-flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, W.H.K.

    1969-01-01

    Over 3 500 measurements of surface heat-flux have been catalogued and analyzed to study the large-scale variations of terrestrial heat-flow. It was found that heat-flow values are correlated with major geologic provinces: higher averages and scattered values in active tectonic regions, and lower averages and more uniform values in stable areas. Analyzing the data in the light of new global tectonics shows that the variations of heat-flow are consistent with the hypotheses of sea-floor spreading and plate tectonics. The observed heat-flow across the mid-oceanic ridges can be accounted for by a simple model of a spreading sea floor. ?? 1970.

  8. Adaptation of US maize to temperature variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, Ethan E.; Huybers, Peter

    2013-01-01

    High temperatures are associated with reduced crop yields, and predictions for future warming have raised concerns regarding future productivity and food security. However, the extent to which adaptation can mitigate such heat-related losses remains unclear. Here we empirically demonstrate how maize is locally adapted to hot temperatures across US counties. Using this spatial adaptation as a surrogate for future adaptation, we find that losses to average US maize yields from a 2°C warming would be reduced from 14% to only 6% and that loss in net production is wholly averted. This result does not account for possible changes in temperature variability or water resources, nor does it account for all possible forms of adaptation, but it does show that adaptation is of first-order importance for predicting future changes in yield. Further research should be undertaken regarding the ability to adapt to a changing climate, including analysis of other crops and regions, the application of more sophisticated models of crop development, and field trials employing artificially increased temperature.

  9. An initial estimate of the global distribution of diurnal variation in sea surface salinity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fine, E. C.; Bryan, F. O.; Large, W. G.; Bailey, D. A.

    2015-05-01

    Diurnal variations in sea surface salinity (SSS) have been observed at a few selected locations with adequate in situ instrumentation. Such variations result primarily from imbalances between surface freshwater fluxes and vertical mixing of deeper water to the surface. New observations becoming available from satellite salinity remote sensing missions could help to constrain estimates of diurnal variations in air-sea exchange of freshwater, and provide insight into the processes governing diurnal variability of mixing processes in the upper ocean. Additionally, a better understanding of variation in near surface salinity is required to compare satellite measured SSS with in situ measurements at a few meters depth. The diurnal SSS variations should be reflected as differences between ascending and descending pass retrievals from the Aquarius and SMOS satellites; however, the diurnal signal can be masked by inadequacies of the geophysical corrections used in processing the satellite measurements. In this study, we quantify the expected range of diurnal SSS variations using a model developed for predicting diurnal sea surface temperature variations. We present estimates for the mean and variance of the global diurnal SSS cycle, contrasting it with the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature. We find the SSS diurnal cycle can be significant throughout the tropics, with mean amplitudes of up to 0.1 psu in areas with heavy precipitation. Predicted maximum diurnal ranges approach 2 psu in select regions. Surface freshening in Aquarius salinity retrievals is shown to be larger for ascending than descending passes, consistent with the expectations from the model simulation.

  10. The influence of solar spectral variations on global radiative balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Feng-Ling; Tao, Le-Ren; Cui, Guo-Min; Xu, Jia-Liang; Hua, Tse-Chao

    2015-01-01

    The total solar irradiance (TSI) has been the sole solar input in many climate models for lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements currently. However, based on the recent SSI measurements by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, which is able to provide full and accurate SSI measurements, the influence of SSI variations on global radiative balance between the descending phase of previous solar cycle in December 2007 and the ascending phase of the current solar cycle in the first half 2010 has been studied in this paper. The results show that the relatively larger TSI in the first half 2010 was mainly due to the ultraviolet and near infrared radiation enhancements, with average increases of 0.11% in 200-400 nm and 0.05% in 760-4000 nm respectively, while the radiation in visible region of 400-760 nm decreased by 0.05%. According to the measurements of ozone from the Aura-Microwave Limb Sounder satellite, the global average stratospheric ozone increased markedly in the layer of 25-40 km at the same time. The visible radiation decrease and stratospheric ozone increase together contributed to the smaller solar radiation at the tropopause for each month of the first half 2010 as compared with that in December 2007, with the maximum decrease of 0.15 W m-2 in March 2010. The study reveals that SSI variations in the ascending solar phase may also cool the Earth-atmosphere system.

  11. The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lian, Tao

    2016-04-01

    In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

  12. Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Ding, Qinghua

    2008-03-01

    This paper discusses the concept of global monsoon. We demonstrate that the primary climatological features of the tropical precipitation and low-level circulation can be represented by a three-parameter metrics: the annual mean and two major modes of annual variation, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. Together, the two major modes of annual cycle account for 84% of the annual variance and they represent the global monsoon. The global monsoon precipitation domain can be delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation index (MPI), which is the local annual range of precipitation (MJJAS minus NDJFM in the Northern Hemisphere and NDJFM minus MJJAS in the Southern Hemisphere) normalized by the annual mean precipitation. The monsoon domain can be defined by annual range exceeding 300 mm and the MPI exceeding 50%. The three-parameter precipitation climatology metrics and global monsoon domain proposed in the present paper provides a valuable objective tool for gauging the climate models' performance on simulation and prediction of the mean climate and annual cycle. The metrics are used to evaluate the precipitation climatology in three global reanalysis products (ERA40, NCEP2, and JRA25) in terms of their pattern correlation coefficients and root mean square errors with reference to observations. The ensemble mean of the three analysis datasets is considerably superior to any of the individual reanalysis data in representing annual mean, annual cycle, and the global monsoon domain. A major common deficiency is found over the Southeast Asia-Philippine Sea and southeast North America-Caribbean Sea where the east-west land-ocean thermal contrast and meridional hemispheric thermal contrast coexist. It is speculated that the weakness is caused by models' unrealistic representation of Subtropical High and under-represented tropical storm activity, as well as by neglecting atmosphere-ocean interaction in the reanalysis. It is recommended that ensemble

  13. Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal; Walker, G.; Thornton, Patti; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-01-01

    The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

  14. Environmental variation and population responses to global change.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Callum R; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-07-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability. PMID:25900148

  15. A model of the diurnal variation in lake surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodges, Jonathan L.

    Satellite measurements of water surface temperature can benefit several environmental applications such as predictions of lake evaporation, meteorological forecasts, and predictions of lake overturning events, among others. However, limitations on the temporal resolution of satellite measurements restrict these improvements. A model of the diurnal variation in lake surface temperature could potentially increase the effective temporal resolution of satellite measurements of surface temperature, thereby enhancing the utility of these measurements in the above applications. Herein, a one-dimensional transient thermal model of a lake is used in combination with surface temperature measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, along with ambient atmospheric conditions from local weather stations, and bulk temperature measurements to calculate the diurnal surface temperature variation for the five major lakes in the Savannah River Basin in South Carolina: Lakes Jocassee, Keowee, Hartwell, Russell, and Thurmond. The calculated solutions are used to obtain a functional form for the diurnal surface temperature variation of these lakes. Differences in diurnal variation in surface temperature between each of these lakes are identified and potential explanations for these differences are presented.

  16. The Variation of Electrochemical Cell Potentials with Temperature

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peckham, Gavin D.; McNaught, Ian J.

    2011-01-01

    Electrochemical cell potentials have no simple relationship with temperature but depend on the interplay between the sign and magnitude of the isothermal temperature coefficient, dE[degrees]/dT, and on the magnitude of the reaction quotient, Q. The variations in possible responses of standard and non-standard cell potentials to changes in the…

  17. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  18. Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming without the Use of Station Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compo, Gilbert; Sardeshmukh, Prashant; Whitaker, Jeffrey; Brohan, Philip; Jones, Philip; McColl, Chesley

    2013-04-01

    Confidence in estimates of 20th century land warming is limited by known issues with near-surface air temperature observations from land stations. Station siting, site moves, instrument changes, changing observing practices, urban effects, land cover, land use variations, and statistical processing have all been hypothesized as affecting the trends presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others. Confidence in the observed rise of global land temperatures since the 1950s is important in assessments of anthropogenic effects on climate, so any artifacts in the observed decadal and centennial variations associated with these issues could have important consequences for scientific understanding and climate policy. Here we test the station temperature observations using a completely different approach to investigate global 20th century land warming. Specifically, we ignore all land temperature observations and instead infer the temperatures from global observations of subdaily barometric pressure, monthly HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration, and of CO2, solar and volcanic radiative forcing agents using a physically-based data assimilation system called the 20th Century Reanalysis. This independent dataset reproduces both annual variations and centennial trends found in the observational near-surface air temperature datasets, thus demonstrating the robustness of previous conclusions based on them regarding global warming.

  19. Seismic reflectivity effects from seasonal seafloor temperature variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Warren T.; Martin, Kylara M.; Jung, Wooyeol; Sample, John

    2014-10-01

    The effects of seasonal temperature variation on sound speed contrasts at the seafloor are usually considered negligible in the analysis of seismic data but may be significant at large incidence angles (offsets) important for inversion of sediment elastic properties, or long-range acoustic transmission. In coastal areas, the maximum annual seafloor temperature variation can be several degrees Celsius or more, corresponding to a sound speed variation of 30 m/s or more. Thermal pulses propagate via conduction several meters into the seafloor resulting in a damped quasi-sinusoidal temperature profile with predictable wave number characteristics. The oscillating seasonal and spatial character of this signal creates a time- and frequency-dependent effect on the elastic seafloor reflectivity. Results of numerical simulations show that the expected temperature profile for most sediment types and porosities will have the strongest affect on frequencies between about 60 and 600 Hz, at incidence angles greater than about 50°.

  20. An examination of global variations of sunset NO2 as measured by SAGE II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callis, L. B.

    1994-01-01

    Global variations of sunset NO2 are examined for the period October 24, 1984 through May 28, 1991 using Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II data. Between 60 deg S and 60 deg N declining trends are observed at all latitudes and at all altitudes above 25 km. For the column NO2 above 25 km, the area-weighted integrated trend between these latitudes is -2.5%/year. The largest rates of decline (5%/year) are at mid to high latitudes in each hemisphere. Different temporal behavior is observed with latitude and in the two hemispheres. The largest percentage changes of NO2 from year to year are observed near 40 km at high latitudes and can be as large as 160%. These results and previously reported simulations suggest that a modulating polar source of NO(y) and variations in atmospheric temperature and advective transport both contribute to the observed NO2 variations.

  1. On the Global Variation of Precipitating Layer Clouds.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, B. F.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study (GCSS) is to promote the description and understanding of key cloud system processes, with the aim of developing and improving the representation of cloud processes in general circulation models. The GCSS Science Panel identified a need to document important observational gaps in the structure of cloud systems inhibiting the development of cloud-resolving models as a tool for parameterizing cloud systems in general circulation models.The nature of precipitating layer clouds around the world is not well documented. To better quantify this, a synthesis of observations of these types of clouds made during field experiments conducted around the world has been developed. The synthesis draws on observations made in Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, Russia, the Ukraine, the United States, and several European countries.The survey examines the global variation of the horizontal scales of cloud and precipitation, embedded phenomena such as rainbands, conveyor belt characteristics, ice crystal and water droplet concentrations, and raindrop and ice crystal size distributions.

  2. Computation of photovoltaic parameters under lunar temperature variation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dhere, Neelkanth G.; Santiago, James V.

    1993-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) arrays with regenerative-fuel-cell energy storage is a prime, power-system candidate for lunar photo-power. The PV module performance decreases at higher temperatures. Surface temperature variations of the moon are extreme, the maximum (noon) temperature being 384 K. The present work utilizes detailed computations of photovoltaic parameters with computer program developed earlier for the computation of optimum bandgaps of single- and two-junction solar cells at different temperatures, and calculates the power output of single and two-junction solar modules under different configurations which constitutes an improvement over the assumption of a linear variation of efficiency with temperature. The program also calculates the necessary PV-array size to satisfy stipulated levels of day- and night-time power consumption.

  3. Feedback control of solid oxide fuel cell spatial temperature variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fardadi, Mahshid; Mueller, Fabian; Jabbari, Faryar

    A high performance feedback controller has been developed to minimize SOFC spatial temperature variation following significant load perturbations. For thermal management, spatial temperature variation along SOFC cannot be avoided. However, results indicate that feedback control can be used to manipulate the fuel cell air flow and inlet fuel cell air temperature to maintain a nearly constant SOFC electrode electrolyte assembly temperature profile. For example temperature variations of less than 5 K are obtained for load perturbations of ±25% from nominal. These results are obtained using a centralized control strategy to regulate a distributed temperature profile and manage actuator interactions. The controller is based on H-infinity synthesis using a physical based dynamic model of a single co-flow SOFC repeat cell. The model of the fuel cell spatial temperature response needed for control synthesis was linearized and reduced from nonlinear model of the fuel cell assembly. A single 11 state feedback linear system tested in the full nonlinear model was found to be effective and stable over a wide fuel cell operating envelope (0.82-0.6 V). Overall, simulation of the advanced controller resulted in small and smooth monotonic temperature response to rapid and large load perturbations. This indicates that future SOFC systems can be designed and controlled to have superb load following characteristic with less than previously expected thermal stresses.

  4. Global geomagnetic field mapping - from secular variation to geomagnetic excursions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panovska, Sanja; Constable, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    declination and paleointensity variation without prior calibration. The procedure is sensitive to the starting model for the inversion and it is, therefore, important to use absolute observations to initialize the calibration factors. Global geomagnetic field evolution is investigated in terms of changes in the field morphology at the core-mantle boundary, with particular interest in following the location of reconstructed flux lobes, determining need for any longitudinal structure and hemispheric asymmetry. The Laschamp excursion behavior suggests a time-transgressive process, either a true geomagnetic field feature or a result of age inconsistencies in the underlying data. An extreme axial dipole low is associated with the Laschamp excursion, but other reported excursions during the past 100 ka do not exhibit such pronounced dipole lows. Existing field studies extending back 10 thousand years show greater geomagnetic variability in the southern hemisphere than in the north, and lower average field strength. Modeling results are used to test whether hemispheric asymmetry in secular variation and the time-averaged field persist on this time scale, whether there are detectable differences in growth versus decay rates for the axial dipole.

  5. Variational Equation for Quantum Number Projection at Finite Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanabe, Kosai; Nakada, Hitoshi

    2008-04-01

    To describe phase transitions in a finite system at finite temperature, we develop a formalism of the variation-after-projection (VAP) of quantum numbers based on the thermofield dynamics (TFD). We derive a new Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS)-type equation by variating the free energy with approximate entropy without violating Peierls inequality. The solution to the new BCS equation describes the S-shape in the specific heat curve and the superfluid-to-normal phase transition caused by the temperature effect. It simulates the exact quantum Monte Carlo results well.

  6. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  7. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

  8. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

    2016-05-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  9. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Crop models are essential to assess the threat of climate change for food production but have not been systematically tested against temperature experiments, despite demonstrated uncertainty in temperature response. Herein, we compare 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments in which...

  10. Robust Optimization of a MEMS Accelerometer Considering Temperature Variations

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Guangjun; Yang, Feng; Bao, Xiaofan; Jiang, Tao

    2015-01-01

    A robust optimization approach for a MEMS accelerometer to minimize the effects of temperature variations is presented. The mathematical model of the accelerometer is built. The effects of temperature variations on the output performance of the accelerometer are determined, and thermal deformation of the accelerometer is analyzed. The deviations of the output capacitance and resonance frequency due to temperature fluctuations are calculated and discussed. The sensitivity analysis method is employed to determine the design variables for robust optimization and find out the key structural parameters that have most significant influence on the output capacitance and resonance frequency of the accelerometer. The mathematical model and procedure for the robust optimization of the accelerometer are proposed. The robust optimization problem is solved and discussed. The robust optimization results show that an optimized accelerometer with high sensitivity, high temperature robustness and decoupling structure is finally obtained. PMID:25785308

  11. Comparison of Displacements Due to Surface Temperature Variation and GPS Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    qing xu, xue; dong, danan

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the displacement field induced by temperature variation with the 2013 global model finished by Ming Fang, which is within a spherical thermal boundary layer under an Earth-like condition of surface heating by deriving analytical solutions on a uniform elastic sphere under the constraint that its centre of mass remains stationary in space. Then the displacement induced by temperature variation is compared with the displacement in GPS observations, and the displacement induced by mass load (mainly contents atmosphere, ocean, and snow) is deducted from the GPS observations firstly. Results show that the amplitude of the thermally induced surface deformation in global scale is at the millimeter level with the largest ˜3mm for radial displacement and˜1mm for transverse displacement. Comparative analysis shows that the thermal surface deformation is a good explanation for the remaining displacement in GPS observations, especially in the Americas region.

  12. Gentic variation for high temperature tolerance in maize

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As global warming becomes inevitable, the sustainability of agricultural production in US and worldwide faces serious threat from extreme weather conditions, such as drought and high temperature (heat) stresses. While drought stress can be alleviated through irrigation, little can be done with high ...

  13. Aperiodic ion temperature variations in the Io plasma torus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eviatar, A.; Mekler, Y.

    1984-03-01

    The observed aperiodic variations of S III temperature reported by ground-based observers, which take place on time scales short in comparison with the radiation and electron collision relaxation times, are considered. It is suggested that ion-ion charge exchange processes are responsible for the heating and ion-atom collisions are the source of the cooling. The fluctuations are attributed to random strong variations in the output of neutral matter from the volcanoes and surface of Io. Freshly ionized sulfur that will have near full corotation gyro-energy will undergo charge exchange with thermal doubly ionized sulfur and oxygen, thus producing hot S III. Newly injected neutral atoms can cool the ambient hot plasma by collisions on a time scale comparable to their lifetime against ionization processes. Analytic solutions of the temperature rate equations, including the time variation of the neutral and ionized matter density are found to reproduce the observed fluctuations for reasonable values of initial densities.

  14. Monitoring soil water content by vertical temperature variations.

    PubMed

    Bechkit, Mohamed Amine; Flageul, Sébastien; Guerin, Roger; Tabbagh, Alain

    2014-01-01

    The availability of high sensitivity temperature sensors (0.001 K sensitivity platinum resistors), which can be positioned at intervals of a few centimeters along a vertical profile in the unsaturated zone, allows short-term in situ determinations-one day or even less-of the thermal diffusivity. The development of high data storage capabilities also makes this possible over long periods and the relative variations in thermal diffusivity allow the monitoring of the variations in water content. The processing of temperature measurements recorded at different depths is achieved by solving the heat equation, using the finite elements method, with both conductive and convective heat transfers. A first set of measurements has allowed this approach to be validated. Water content variations derived from thermal diffusivity values are in excellent agreement with TDR measurements carried out on the experimental site at Boissy-le-Châtel (Seine et Marne, France). PMID:23834312

  15. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  16. INTRAPULPAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION DURING BLEACHING WITH VARIOUS ACTIVATION MECHANISMS

    PubMed Central

    Michida, Sílvia Masae de Araujo; Passos, Sheila Pestana; Marimoto, Ângela Regina Kimie; Garakis, Márcia Carneiro Valera; de Araújo, Maria Amélia Máximo

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the intrapulpal temperature variation after bleaching treatment with 35% hydrogen peroxide using different sources of activation. Material and Methods: Twenty-four human teeth were sectioned in the mesiodistal direction providing 48 specimens, and were divided into 4 groups (n=12): (G1) Control - Bleaching gel without light activation, (G2) Bleaching gel + halogen light, (G3) Bleaching gel + LED, (G4) Bleaching gel + Nd:YAG Laser. The temperatures were recorded using a digital thermometer at 4 time points: before bleaching gel application, 1 min after bleaching gel application, during activation of the bleaching gel, and after the bleaching agent turned from a dark-red into a clear gel. Data were analyzed statistically by the Dunnet's test, ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05). Results: The mean intrapulpal temperature values (°C) in the groups were: G1: 0.617 ± 0.41; G2: 1.800 ± 0.68; G3: 0.975 ± 0.51; and G4: 4.325 ± 1.09. The mean maximum temperature variation (MTV) values were: 1.5°C (G1), 2.9°C (G2), 1.7°C (G3) and 6.9°C (G4). When comparing the experimental groups to the control group, G3 was not statistically different from G1 (p>0.05), but G2 and G4 presented significantly higher (p<0.05) intrapulpal temperatures and MTV. The three experimental groups differed significantly (p<0.05) from each other. Conclusions: The Nd:YAG laser was the activation method that presented the highest values of intrapulpal temperature variation when compared with LED and halogen light. The group activated by LED light presented the lowest values of temperature variation, which were similar to that of the control group. PMID:19936522

  17. Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-03-01

    A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

  18. Global Genetic Variations Predict Brain Response to Faces

    PubMed Central

    Dickie, Erin W.; Tahmasebi, Amir; French, Leon; Kovacevic, Natasa; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J.; Bokde, Arun; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Gallinat, Juergen; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Lawrence, Claire; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Nichols, Thomas; Lathrop, Mark; Loth, Eva; Pausova, Zdenka; Rietschel, Marcela; Smolka, Michal N.; Ströhle, Andreas; Toro, Roberto; Schumann, Gunter; Paus, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum likelihood (GREML), we related this global genetic variance to that in the brain response to facial expressions, as assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a community-based sample of adolescents (n = 1,620). Brain response to facial expressions was measured in 25 regions constituting a face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40–50%) in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the genotype-phenotype relationship varied as a function of the inter-individual variability in the number of functional connections possessed by a given region (R2 = 0.38, p<0.001). Furthermore, this variability showed an inverted U relationship with both the number of observed connections (R2 = 0.48, p<0.001) and the magnitude of brain response (R2 = 0.32, p<0.001). Thus, a significant proportion of the brain response to facial expressions is predicted by common genetic variance in a subset of regions constituting the face network. These regions show the highest inter-individual variability in the number of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network. PMID:25122193

  19. Global genetic variations predict brain response to faces.

    PubMed

    Dickie, Erin W; Tahmasebi, Amir; French, Leon; Kovacevic, Natasa; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Gallinat, Juergen; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Lawrence, Claire; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Nichols, Thomas; Lathrop, Mark; Loth, Eva; Pausova, Zdenka; Rietschel, Marcela; Smolka, Michal N; Ströhle, Andreas; Toro, Roberto; Schumann, Gunter; Paus, Tomáš

    2014-08-01

    Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼ 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum likelihood (GREML), we related this global genetic variance to that in the brain response to facial expressions, as assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a community-based sample of adolescents (n = 1,620). Brain response to facial expressions was measured in 25 regions constituting a face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40-50%) in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the genotype-phenotype relationship varied as a function of the inter-individual variability in the number of functional connections possessed by a given region (R(2) = 0.38, p<0.001). Furthermore, this variability showed an inverted U relationship with both the number of observed connections (R2 = 0.48, p<0.001) and the magnitude of brain response (R(2) = 0.32, p<0.001). Thus, a significant proportion of the brain response to facial expressions is predicted by common genetic variance in a subset of regions constituting the face network. These regions show the highest inter-individual variability in the number of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network. PMID:25122193

  20. Global Temperature and Salinity Pilot Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Searle, Ben

    1992-01-01

    Data exchange and data management programs have been evolving over many years. Within the international community there are two main programs to support the exchange, management and processing of real time and delayed mode data. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) operate the International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IODE) program which coordinates the exchange of delayed mode data between national oceanographic data centers, World Data Centers and the user community. The Integrated Global Ocean Services System is a joint IOC/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) program for the exchange and management of real-time data. These two programs are complemented by mechanisms that have been established within scientific programs to exchange and manage project data sets. In particular TOGA and WOCE have identified a data management requirement and established the appropriate infrastructure to achieve this. Where GTSPP fits into this existing framework is discussed.

  1. Minimal upper mantle temperature variations consistent with observed heat flow and plate velocities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaula, W. M.

    1983-01-01

    Heat-flow and plate-velocity measurements are used to model upper-mantle temperature variations; the results are intended to form the basis for a gravity-field-variation model and are also applicable to the interpretation of petrological and seismological data. A 5-deg grid is used, a depth of 280 km is chosen as the fully convecting level, and it is assumed that 85 percent of the global heat production (4.0 x 10 to the 13th W) comes from below this level. The velocity field is calculated by integrating the momentum equations down to 280 km (assuming laterally homogeneous viscosity and density) and then used to determine the temperature fields. The results are presented in graphs, tables, and maps. The largest lateral temperature differences are about 1500 C and occur in the top 20 km, where the largest (about 200 C/Myr) nonlinear terms of the energy equation are also found. Below 50 km, heat transfer becomes more convective than conductive, and the most significant temperature variation appears in the form of negative 'tongues' as cold as -825 C at about 100 km. Temperature variations of at least + or - 180 C are calculated at the fully convecting level.

  2. Fingerprints of anthropogenic and natural variability in global-mean surface temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, J.M.; Zhang, Yuan

    1997-11-01

    This paper presents an analysis designed to detect greenhouse warming by distinguishing between temperature rises induced by increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and those induced by background variability that are present without changes in atmospheric composition. The strategy is based on the surface temperature field. At each observation time, the projection of the anomalous temperature field on the presumed anthropogenic fingerprint is removed in order to obtain a temperature deviation field; i.e., the temperature anomalies in the phase space orthogonal to the anthropogenic fingerprint, which are presumed to be entirely natural. The time series of the expansion coefficients of the fingerprint a(t) is then regressed on this temperature deviation field to identify the axis in the orthogonal phase space along which the variations are most strongly correlated, and an index n(t) of the temporal variations along that axis is generated. The index a(t) is then regressed upon n(t) and the resulting least squares fit is regarded as the component of a(t) that can be ascribed to natural causes. The analysis was performed for monthly global surface temperature anomaly fields for the period 1900-95. Results indicate that two well defined patterns of natural variability contribute to variations in global mean temperature: the synthetic cold ocean-warm land (COWL) pattern and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In domains that include surface air temperature over Eurasia and North America, the COWL pattern tends to be dominant. The ENSO signature emerges as the pattern most strongly linearly correlated with global sea surface temperature and with tropospheric layer-averaged temperatures. 24 refs., 3 figs.

  3. GOAT (Global Oxygen And Temperature) Mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slanger, T. G.; Kostko, O.; Pejakovic, D. A.; Kalogerakis, K. S.

    2012-04-01

    The O2(b1Σg+ - X3Σg-) Atmospheric Band system has been studied extensively since the days of Fraunhofer, who first showed that solar photoabsorption in the 762 nm region was caused by terrestrial oxygen; in this case, the 0-0 band of the b - X system. The O2(b) state is generated by two different mechanisms in the atmosphere: by O(3P ) atom recombination, where O2(b) is one of several excited O2 states produced, and by the energy transfer from O(1D) to O2, where the products are O2(b, v = 0, 1). The latter is an ionospheric process and is the case of interest here. Recent studies at SRI International have demonstrated that O2(b, v = 1) is the predominant product of the energy transfer, with the nascent [v = 1]/[v = 0] ratio being close to 4 and temperature independent. Collisional quenching of b(1) by O2, to produce b(0), proceeds six orders of magnitude faster than b(0) quenching [Slanger and Copeland, 2003]. As a consequence, the [b - X(1-1)]/[b - X(0-0)] intensity ratio as a function of thermospheric altitude shows the degree to which b(1) has been converted to b(0), which can be interpreted in terms of atmospheric composition. Of the three colliders - O2, O(3P ), and N2 - it is the first two that control the b(1) → b(0) relaxation rate. To observe the b(v = 0, 1) emission requires space-based measurements in the 755-780 nm region of the 0-0 and 1-1 bands. In addition to the varying intensity ratio of the two bands, the shapes will differ as a function of temperature as the rotational temperature changes. Thus, observations of the shapes and the relative intensities of the two bands will simultaneously lead to information on temperature and on the [O2] + [O(3P )] densities as a function of altitude. The technique is relevant to the dayglow and to the portion of the night when O(1D) is still detectable. T. G. Slanger and R. A. Copeland, Chem. Rev. 103, 4731-65, 2003. Supported by NASA ITM Grant NNX10AL08G and NSF Aeronomy Grant AGS-0937317.

  4. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded. PMID:25631444

  5. Modern average global sea-surface temperature

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweitzer, Peter N.

    1993-01-01

    The data contained in this data set are derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Multichannel Sea Surface Temperature data (AVHRR MCSST), which are obtainable from the Distributed Active Archive Center at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. The JPL tapes contain weekly images of SST from October 1981 through December 1990 in nine regions of the world ocean: North Atlantic, Eastern North Atlantic, South Atlantic, Agulhas, Indian, Southeast Pacific, Southwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, and Northwest Pacific. This data set represents the results of calculations carried out on the NOAA data and also contains the source code of the programs that made the calculations. The objective was to derive the average sea-surface temperature of each month and week throughout the whole 10-year series, meaning, for example, that data from January of each year would be averaged together. The result is 12 monthly and 52 weekly images for each of the oceanic regions. Averaging the images in this way tends to reduce the number of grid cells that lack valid data and to suppress interannual variability.

  6. Natural Changes in Brain Temperature Underlie Variations in Song Tempo during a Mating Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Aronov, Dmitriy; Fee, Michale S.

    2012-01-01

    The song of a male zebra finch is a stereotyped motor sequence whose tempo varies with social context – whether or not the song is directed at a female bird – as well as with the time of day. The neural mechanisms underlying these changes in tempo are unknown. Here we show that brain temperature recorded in freely behaving male finches exhibits a global increase in response to the presentation of a female bird. This increase strongly correlates with, and largely explains, the faster tempo of songs directed at a female compared to songs produced in social isolation. Furthermore, we find that the observed diurnal variations in song tempo are also explained by natural variations in brain temperature. Our findings suggest that brain temperature is an important variable that can influence the dynamics of activity in neural circuits, as well as the temporal features of behaviors that some of these circuits generate. PMID:23112858

  7. Temperature-induced variation in yolk androgen and thyroid hormone levels in avian eggs.

    PubMed

    Ruuskanen, Suvi; Groothuis, Ton G G; Schaper, Sonja V; Darras, Veerle M; de Vries, Bonnie; Visser, Marcel E

    2016-09-01

    Global warming has substantially changed the environment, but the mechanisms to cope with these changes in animals, including the role of maternal effects, are poorly understood. Maternal effects via hormones deposited in eggs, have important environment-dependent effects on offspring development and fitness: thus females are expected to adjust these hormones to the environment, such as the ambient temperature. Longer-term temperature variation could function as a cue, predicting chick rearing conditions to which yolk hormone levels are adjusted, while short-term temperature variation during egg formation may causally affect hormone transfer to eggs. We studied the effects of ambient temperature on yolk androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) and thyroid hormones (thyroxine and triiodothyronine) in great tits (Parus major) using data from unmanipulated clutches from a wild population and from aviary birds (ad libitum food) exposed to different experimental temperature treatments during five years. Both in the wild and in captivity, longer-term pre-laying ambient temperature was not associated with clutch mean yolk hormone levels, while the way androstenedione and thyroxine levels varied across the laying sequence did associate with pre-laying temperature in the wild. Yolk testosterone levels were positively correlated with short-term temperature (during yolk formation) changes within clutches in both wild and captivity. We also report, for the first time in a wild bird, that yolk thyroxine levels correlated with a key environmental factor: thyroxine levels were negatively correlated with ambient temperature during egg formation. Thus, yolk hormone levels, especially testosterone, seem to be causally affected by ambient temperature. These short-term effects might reflect physiological changes in females with changes in ambient temperature. The adaptive value of the variation with ambient temperatures pre-laying or during egg formation should be studied with

  8. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  9. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate. PMID:26503051

  10. Coherent variations of monthly mean total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.; Cobb, Janel B.

    1994-01-01

    Space-time patterns of correlation between total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature are documented, based on 14 years (1979-1992) of global monthly mean observations. Data are obtained from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, the latter being a weighted mean temperature of the 150- to 50-mbar layer. These data are analyzed (separately) for linear trend, solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations via linear regression: significant signals are identified for each term, and the corresponding structures in ozone and temperature are found to be highly coherent. The temperature trends derived here show significant cooling of the lower stratosphere over Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in winter-spring and over Antarctica in Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring; the overall space-time patterns are similar to those determined for ozone trends. Interestingly, temperatures do not decrease over SH midlatitudes during midwinter, in spite of large ozone losses. These data furthermore show globally coherent ozone and temperature perturbations associated with both QBO and ENSO variations; a new result here show large total ozone anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes of both hemispheres associated with ENSO events. Residuals from the ozone and temperature time series (defined as the deseasonalized total minus the regression fits) show strong positive correlation in middle-to-high latitudes but weak correlations in the trop ics. Time periods following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo are clearly identified from the coupled signatures of decreased ozone and increased temperature, opposite to the positive ozone-temperature correlations observed at other times. The ratios of ozone to temperature anomalies derived here show quantitative signatures indicating that either radiative (trend, solar, and QBO) or dynamical (ENSO and residuals) processes are

  11. The effect of global climate change on sea level variations along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore

    SciTech Connect

    Mungov, G.; Vesselinov, V.

    1996-12-31

    Data of long-time sea level records along the Bulgarian Black Sea shore are analyzed from the point of view of the global climate change. The analysis of the extreme levels discovers an increase of their appearance during the last 15 years. Two different periods are studied and the recent increases imply the possibility of changes in the regime of the extreme marine events in the Western Black Sea. The cycles in the mean sea levels and the statistical characteristics of the interannual (seasonal) variations are determined. Trends in the sea level records are studied for three basic periods, according the periods in the annual temperature anomalies of the northern hemisphere: 1924--1943; 1944--1973; 1974--1991. The mean sea level rise has maximum value during the first period and minimum during the last third one. This is explained with the decrease of the water inflow into the sea and some initial disturbances in its water balance due to the global climate change. The influence of the global climate change is studied using multiple regression on global environmental data.

  12. Transient Middle Eocene atmospheric CO₂ and temperature variations.

    PubMed

    Bijl, Peter K; Houben, Alexander J P; Schouten, Stefan; Bohaty, Steven M; Sluijs, Appy; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Brinkhuis, Henk

    2010-11-01

    The long-term warmth of the Eocene (~56 to 34 million years ago) is commonly associated with elevated partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO(2)). However, a direct relationship between the two has not been established for short-term climate perturbations. We reconstructed changes in both pCO(2) and temperature over an episode of transient global warming called the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40 million years ago). Organic molecular paleothermometry indicates a warming of southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) by 3° to 6°C. Reconstructions of pCO(2) indicate a concomitant increase by a factor of 2 to 3. The marked consistency between SST and pCO(2) trends during the MECO suggests that elevated pCO(2) played a major role in global warming during the MECO. PMID:21051636

  13. Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

    2015-12-01

    New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

  14. Global Study of Small-Scale Color Variations on Eros

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riner, M. A.; Eckart, J. M.; Digilio, J. G.; Robinson, M. S.

    2005-12-01

    Small-scale color variations on Eros provide information about composition and regolith processes. We mosaicked all multispectral image sequences of Eros acquired with the NEAR Shoemaker MultiSpectral Imager (MSI) [1] to produce an exhaustive catalog of all color features. Consistent with previous findings we identify four types of spectral/albedo units: 1) high albedo streaks found on the steep slopes, 2) low albedo soils found in topographic lows and in association with high albedo streaks, 3) ponds which are smooth, flat deposits that infill topographic lows normal to local gravity, 4) and average Eros. From our global survey we have cataloged and characterized 137 white streaks, 66 dark soils, 123 areas of typical regolith, and 66 ponded deposits, roughly an order of magnitude more data points than reported in previous studies. We confirm the findings of [2]; white streaks, dark soils, and typical Eros fall on a two end-member mixing line with white streaks and dark soils as end members. White streaks are bluer (550nm/760nm) and have a deeper 1-micron absorption band (950nm/760nm), while dark soils are redder (550nm/760nm) and have a shallower 1-micron band (950nm/760nm). These trends are consistent with varying degrees of space weathering, from relatively immature white streaks to mature typical regolith. The dark soils may be a concentration of mature components (i.e. agglutinates, submicroscopic metallic iron) [2,3]. We also found a significant spatial association between dark soils and white streaks; all observed dark soils occur adjacent to white streaks however not all white streaks have associated dark soils. These observations support the hypothesis that white streaks are fresh material exposed on slopes by mass wasting and that dark soils are accumulations of mature components at the bottoms of slopes [2,3]. We find that ponded deposits are bluer (550nm/760nm) than and have similar 1-micron absorption band depths (950nm/760nm) as white streaks. However

  15. Active Volcanism on Io: Global Distribution and Variations in Activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lopes-Gautier, R.; McEwen, A.S.; Smythe, W.B.; Geissler, P.E.; Kamp, L.; Davies, A.G.; Spencer, J.R.; Keszthelyi, L.; Carlson, R.; Leader, F.E.; Mehlman, R.; Soderblom, L.

    1999-01-01

    Io's volcanic activity has been monitored by instruments aboard the Galileo spacecraft since June 28, 1996. We present results from observations by the near-infrared mapping spectrometer (NIMS) for the first 10 orbits of Galileo, correlate them with results from the Solid State Imaging System (SSI) and from groundbased observations, and compare them to what was known about Io's volcanic activity from observations made during the two Voyager flybys in 1979. A total of 61 active volcanic centers have been identified from Voyager, groundbased, and Galileo observations. Of these, 41 are hot spots detected by NIMS and/or SSI. Another 25 locations were identified as possible active volcanic centers, mostly on the basis of observed surface changes. Hot spots are correlated with surface colors, particularly dark and red deposits, and generally anti-correlated with white, SO2-rich areas. Surface features corresponding to the hot spots, mostly calderas or flows, were identified from Galileo and Voyager images. Hot spot temperatures obtained from both NIMS and SSI are consistent with silicate volcanism, which appears to be widespread on Io. Two types of hot spot activity are present: persistent-type activity, lasting from months to years, and sporadic events, which may represent either short-lived activity or low-level activity that occasionally flares up. Sporadic events are not often detected, but may make an important contribution to Io's heat flow and resurfacing. The distribution of active volcanic centers on the surface does not show any clear correlation with latitude, longitude, Voyager-derived global topography, or heat flow patterns predicted by the asthenosphere and deep mantle tidal dissipation models. However, persistent hot spots and active plumes are concentrated toward lower latitudes, and this distribution favors the asthenosphere rather than the deep mantle tidal dissipation model. ?? 1999 Academic Press.

  16. Temperature variation of Saturn's Rings with Solar Elevation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flandes, A.; Spilker, L.; Altobelli, N.; Leyrat, C.; Pilorz, S.; Edgington, S. G.

    2008-12-01

    In its four-year orbit around Saturn, the spacecraft Cassini has achieved a large number of infrared observations of Saturn's main rings through the CIRS experiment (Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer). We analyze the change of temperature in the main rings (A, B and C) as function of the solar elevation with respect to the plane of the rings at very low (<6°) and high (>120°) phase angles. Specific regions of every ring were chosen in every case to rule out other effects that may produce variations in temperature as well and to account only effects due to the solar latitudinal variations. For solar elevations that cover a range from -10.1° to -23.5°, in average, the temperature variations of the A, B and C rings are around ~{8 K}, near ~{12 K} and barely ~{3 K} respectively. Simple analytical functions which depend on the solar elevation angle and the heliocentric distance are used to fit the trends observed in the data assuming either a continuous slab or idependent particle models. This research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with NASA and at CEA Saclay supported by the "Programme National de Planetologie". Copyright 2008 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

  17. Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

    2008-01-01

    Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. Meltwater Temperature Variations in Rivers Draining Declining Alpine Glaciers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Marked patterns of seasonal and diurnal variations of discharge and temperature characterise meltwater rivers draining from large Alpine glaciers. Meltwater temperature warms with distance downstream, influenced both by energy availability and the volume of meltwater flowing. The amount of meltwater produced depends also on energy availability but also on the area of ice substrate over which melt occurs. As climate warms, meltwater production by ablation in summer will first increase with increasing energy for melting, before decreasing as the area of ice available for melt decreases, off-setting continuing increase in energy availability. Future meltwater temperature changes will depend on the inter-relationship between increasing energy availability and enhancing volume of meltwater produced. Relationships between rates of ice melt, reduction in ice area, and meltwater production will influence melt water temperature changes as climate warms. Meltwater temperature is inversely related to discharge whilst positively related to heat availability. Records of water temperature and discharge of meltwaters in rivers draining from three valley glaciers in Kanton Wallis, Switzerland have been examined. Hourly data for the Massa, Grosser Aletschgletscher, for the period 2003-2014, the Gornera, Gornergletscher , 2007-2014, and Findelenbach, Findelengletscher, 2007-2014 obtained at distances of a few kilometres from the glacier portals have been analysed, for summer months, during which more than 90% of discharge occurs. Distinctive seasonal temperature regimes have highest annual water temperatures during low flows in May., but then as discharge increased with first increasing radiation, increasing ice area as the transient snow line moved up glacier, and higher air temperatures, water temperatures decreased. On a diurnal basis, meltwater temperatures increased with rising radiation ahead of rising discharge (discharge being delayed by flow through time within the glacier

  19. Cultural Variations in Global versus Local Processing: A Developmental Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oishi, Shigehiro; Jaswal, Vikram K.; Lillard, Angeline S.; Mizokawa, Ai; Hitokoto, Hidefumi; Tsutsui, Yoshiro

    2014-01-01

    We conducted 3 studies to explore cultural differences in global versus local processing and their developmental trajectories. In Study 1 ("N" = 363), we found that Japanese college students were less globally oriented in their processing than American or Argentine participants. We replicated this effect in Study 2 ("N" =…

  20. Learn Locally, Act Globally: Learning Language from Variation Set Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onnis, Luca; Waterfall, Heidi R.; Edelman, Shimon

    2008-01-01

    Variation set structure--partial overlap of successive utterances in child-directed speech--has been shown to correlate with progress in children's acquisition of syntax. We demonstrate the benefits of variation set structure directly: in miniature artificial languages, arranging a certain proportion of utterances in a training corpus in variation…

  1. Nocturnal river water temperatures: Spatial and temporal variations.

    PubMed

    Wilby, R L; Johnson, M F; Toone, J A

    2014-06-01

    Nocturnal water temperature (Tw) affects the behaviour of aquatic biota and metabolism of whole rivers. However, night-time water temperature (nTw) is poorly understood because spot samples are typically taken during daylight hours, or Tw series are aggregated in ways that mask sub-daily properties. This paper examines 15-minute measurements of Tw and air temperature (Ta) collected at 36 sites in the Rivers Dove and Manifold, English Peak District. Data were stratified by day and night then analysed using hysteresis, auto-correlation and logistic regression techniques. Daily hysteresis loops show lagged responses between nTw and previous daylight air temperatures (dTa), plus the influence of groundwater and discharge variations. Logistic regression models were modified using a seasonal factor and explained between 80 and 94% of the variance in daily maximum nTw; minimum nTw were predicted with less skill, particularly for headwater sites in summer. Downstream variations in model parameters also reflect the influence of groundwater and/or riparian shade, and prevailing weather conditions. A case is presented where an intense summer storm resulted in the propagation of a thermal wave that produced maximum Tw at some sites during hours of darkness. Hence, our findings show that Tw management by riparian shade has to be seen in a catchment wide context, with anticipated benefits normalised for weather variability, extreme rainfall events, local influence of groundwater, and channel structures. PMID:24642101

  2. Effect of gravity wave temperature variations on homogeneous ice nucleation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dinh, Tra; Podglajen, Aurélien; Hertzog, Albert; Legras, Bernard; Plougonven, Riwal

    2015-04-01

    Observations of cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) have shown various ice number concentrations (INC) (e.g., Jensen et al. 2013), which has lead to a puzzle regarding their formation. In particular, the frequently observed low numbers of ice crystals seemed hard to reconcile with homogeneous nucleation knowing the ubuquity of gravity waves with vertical velocity of the order of 0.1 m/s. Using artificial time series, Spichtinger and Krämer (2013) have illustrated that the variation of vertical velocity during a nucleation event could terminate it and limit the INC. However, their study was limited to constructed temperature time series. Here, we carry out numerical simulations of homogeneous ice nucleation forced by temperature time series data collected by isopycnic balloon flights near the tropical tropopause. The balloons collected data at high frequency (30 s), so gravity wave signals are well resolved in the temperature time series. With the observed temperature time series, the numerical simulations with homogeneous freezing show a full range of ice number concentrations (INC) as previously observed in the tropical upper troposphere. The simulations confirm that the dynamical time scale of temperature variations (as seen from observations) can be shorter than the nucleation time scale. They show the existence of two regimes for homogeneous ice nucleation : one limited by the depletion of water vapor by the nucleated ice crystals (those we name vapor events) and one limited by the reincrease of temperature after its initial decrease (temperature events). Low INC may thus be obtained for temperature events when the gravity wave perturbations produce a non-persistent cooling rate (even with large magnitude) such that the absolute change in temperature remains small during nucleation. This result for temperature events is explained analytically by a dependence of the INC on the absolute drop in temperature (and not on the cooling rate). This

  3. Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

  4. Unexpected and Unexplained Surface Temperature Variations on Mimas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howett, C.; Spencer, J. R.; Pearl, J. C.; Hurford, T. A.; Segura, M.; Cassini Cirs Team

    2010-12-01

    Until recently it was thought one of the most interesting things about Mimas, Saturn’s innermost classical icy moon, was its resemblance to Star Wars’ Death Star. However, a bizarre pattern of daytime surface temperatures was observed on Mimas using data obtained by Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) in February 2010. The observations were taken during Cassini’s closest ever encounter with Mimas (<10,000 km) and cover the daytime anti-Saturn hemisphere centered on longitude ~145° W. Instead of surface temperatures smoothly increasing throughout the morning and early afternoon, then cooling in the evening, as expected, a sharp V-shaped boundary is observed separating cooler midday and afternoon temperatures (~77 K) on the leading side from warmer morning temperatures (~92 K) on the trailing side. The boundary’s apex is centered at equatorial latitudes near the anti-Saturn point and extends to low north and south latitudes on the trailing side. Subtle differences in the surface colors have been observed that are roughly spatially correlated with the observed extent of the temperature anomaly, with the cooler regions tending to be bluer (Schenk et al., Submitted). However, visible-wavelength albedo is similar in the two regions, so albedo variations are probably not directly responsible for the thermal anomaly. It is more likely that thermal inertia variations produce the anomaly, with thermal inertia being unusually high in the region with anomalously low daytime temperatures. Comparison of the February 2010 CIRS data to previous lower spatial resolution data taken at different local times tentatively confirm that the cooler regions do indeed display higher thermal inertias. Bombardment of the surface by high energy electrons from Saturn’s radiation belts has been proposed to explain the observed color variations (Schenk et al., Submitted). Electrons above ~1 MeV preferentially impact Mimas’ leading hemisphere at low latitudes where they

  5. A Data Gap Analysis and Efforts Towards Improving NOAA's Global Surface Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, H. M.; Wuertz, D.; Nickl, E.; Banzon, P. V. F.; Gleason, B.; Huang, B.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.; Thorne, P.; Williams, C. N., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    Estimates of global surface temperature trends from some sources have indicated slowing in the rate of warming over the last decade compared to the long-term warming trend since the industrial revolution. It has been debated whether this recent slowdown is due to natural variability or a missed signal due to gaps in the global observation networks, particularly over the Arctic Region. To examine this more closely, we quantify the impact of data gaps on the global surface temperature trends in several regions of the world (e.g. Polar Regions and the Continents of African and South America), using major global datasets including NOAA's Merged Land-Ocean Temperature dataset (NOAATemp). We also study the impact of the greater observational coverage in a recently released global temperature data set as part of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI), and analyze the spatial-temporal variation patterns of the homogenization effect on NOAATemp. A summary of the progress and challenges in filling in grid boxes where observations are sparse over large areas are presented.

  6. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O'Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-07-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250-1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m-2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway.

  7. Seasonal and interannual temperature variations in the tropical stratosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Reid, G.C.

    1994-09-20

    Temperature variations in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere are influenced by at least five distinct driving forces. These are (1) the mechanism of the regular seasonal cycle, (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal winds, (3) the semiannual zonal wind oscillation (SAO) at higher levels, (4) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects driven by the underlying troposphere, and (5) radiative effects, including volcanic aerosol heating. Radiosonde measurements of temperatures from a number of tropical stations, mostly in the western Pacific region, are used in this paper to examine the characteristic annual and interannual temperature variability in the stratosphere below the 10-hPa pressure level ({approximately} 31 km) over a time period of 17 years, chosen to eliminate or at least minimize the effect of volcanic eruptions. Both annual and interannual variations are found to show a fairly distinct transition between the lower and the middle stratosphere at about the 35-hPa level ({approximately} 23 km). The lower stratosphere, below this transition level, is strongly influenced by the ENSO cycle as well as by the QBO. The overall result of the interaction is to modulate the amplitude of the normal stratospheric seasonal cycle and to impose a biennial component on it, so that alternate seasonal cycles are stronger or weaker than normal. Additional modulation by the ENSO cycle occurs at its quasi-period of 3-5 years, giving rise to a complex net behavior. In the middle stratosphere above the transition level, there is no discernible ENSO influence, and departures from the regular semiannual seasonal cycle are dominated by the QBO. Recent ideas on the underlying physical mechanisms governing these variations are discussed, as is the relationship of the radiosonde measurements to recent satellite remote-sensing observations. 37 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  8. The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morice, C. P.; Rayner, N. A.; Auchmann, R.; Bessembinder, J.; Bronnimann, S.; Brugnara, Y.; Conway, E. A.; Ghent, D.; Good, E.; Herring, K.; Kennedy, J.; Lindgren, F.; Madsen, K. S.; Merchant, C. J.; van der Schrier, G.; Stephens, A.; Tonboe, R. T.; Waterfall, A. M.; Mitchelson, J.; Woolway, I.

    2015-12-01

    Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, we must develop an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. These relationships can be derived either empirically or with the help of a physical model.Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals would be used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods.We will present plans and progress along this road in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018), i.e.: • providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras.Information will also be given on how interested users can become

  9. The Atlanto-Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Melinda; Petrovay, Kristóf; Erdélyi, Robert

    2016-06-01

    Results from a multiregression analysis of the global and sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 1950-2011 are presented where among the independent variables multidecade oscillation signals over various oceanic areas are included. These indices are defined in analogy with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Unexpectedly we find that a strong multidecade oscillation signal echoing the AMO is also present in the Western and Northwestern Pacific region. The results indicate that naturally induced climate variations seem to be dominated by two internal variability modes of the ocean-atmosphere system: AMO and El Niño Southern Oscillation, with a marked geographical dichotomy in their respective areas of dominance. As the AMO index is directly derived from SST data the finding that the AMO signal is present on a large fraction of the global oceanic surface casts doubt on its use as an independent explanatory variable in regression analyses of the global surface temperature anomalies.

  10. Studying Stratospheric Temperature Variation with Cosmic Ray Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaohang; He, Xiaochun

    2015-04-01

    The long term stratospheric cooling in recent decades is believed to be equally important as surface warming as evidence of influences of human activities on the climate system. Un- fortunatly, there are some discrepancies among different measurements of stratospheric tem- peratures, which could be partially caused by the limitations of the measurement techniques. It has been known for decades that cosmic ray muon flux is sensitive to stratospheric temperature change. Dorman proposed that this effect could be used to probe the tempera- ture variations in the stratophere. In this talk, a method for reconstructing stratospheric temperature will be discussed. We verify this method by comparing the stratospheric tem- perature measured by radiosonde with the ones derived from cosmic ray measurement at multiple locations around the globe.

  11. Impacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Dunham, Jason; Letcher, Benjamin; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2016-01-01

    Despite increasing concern that climate change may negatively impact trout—a globally distributed group of fish with major economic, ecological, and cultural value—a synthetic assessment of empirical data quantifying relationships between climatic variation and trout ecology does not exist. We conducted a systematic review to describe how temporal variation in temperature and streamflow influences trout ecology in freshwater ecosystems. Few studies (n = 42) have quantified relationships between temperature or streamflow and trout demography, growth, or phenology, and nearly all estimates (96 %) were for Salvelinus fontinalis and Salmo trutta. Only seven studies used temporal data to quantify climate-driven changes in trout ecology. Results from these studies were beset with limitations that prohibited quantitatively rigorous meta-analysis, a concerning inadequacy given major investment in trout conservation and management worldwide. Nevertheless, consistent patterns emerged from our synthesis, particularly a positive effect of summer streamflow on trout demography and growth; 64 % of estimates were positive and significant across studies, age classes, species, and locations, highlighting that climate-induced changes in hydrology may have numerous consequences for trout. To a lesser degree, summer and fall temperatures were negatively related to population demography (51 and 53 % of estimates, respectively), but temperature was rarely related to growth. To address limitations and uncertainties, we recommend: (1) systematically improving data collection, description, and sharing; (2) appropriately integrating climate impacts with other intrinsic and extrinsic drivers over the entire lifecycle; (3) describing indirect consequences of climate change; and (4) acknowledging and describing intrinsic resiliency.

  12. Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

  13. Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Weile; Ciais, Philippe; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Canadell, Josep G.; Piao, Shilong; Sitch, Stephen; White, Michael A.; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Milesi, Cristina; Myneni, Ranga B.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r2 ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land–surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature–CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r2 ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh − NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature–CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle. PMID:23884654

  14. Global variation of sonic boom overpressure due to seasonal changes in atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, Hiroshi; Obayashi, Shigeru

    2012-09-01

    Global variation of sonic boom overpressures with the realistic atmospheric gradients was discussed. The atmospheric gradients were estimated by upper-air observational radiosonde data and a simple N-wave was extrapolated through all seasonal atmospheric gradients without winds around the world. Results demonstrated that sonic boom overpressure varies widely with season and geographic position compared to that of the standard atmospheric condition. The results also showed the tendencies of the global variation in overpressure.

  15. Spatial patterns of historical temperature variability: Global correlations using spectral and wavelet techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Park, J.

    1995-12-31

    In order to assess man`s impact on global climate, we need to understand natural climate variability more fully. Using 100 years of global temperature data, we have developed time-series methods that identify coherent spatio-temporal {open_quotes}modes{close_quotes} of temperature variability e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. Methods based on multiple-taper spectral analysis estimate the correlated temperature variability within narrow frequency bands. Methods based on a multiple wavelet analysis identify short-term global temperature {open_quotes}events{close_quotes} on a range of time scales. We assess the statistical significance of narrow-band and event correlations from Monte Carlo confidence limits, which are derived from stochastic variations of uncorrelated white-noise time series. Significant patterns of variability with 2.8 to 5.7 year duration exhibit the characteristic ENSO pattern: warming in the tropics, followed by temperature excursions in middle latitudes. An interdecadal mode (15-18 years) appears to represent long-term ENSO variability, an interpretation supported by the persistence of warm Pacific Ocean surface water in the decade after the large 1982-3 El Nino episode. The interdecadal mode appears to explain much of the anomalous global warmth of the 1980s. North Atlantic variability dominates quasi-biennial (2.2 years) and decadal (7-12 years) modes.

  16. Response of tropical clouds to the interannual variation of sea surface temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Fu, Rong; Liu, W.T.

    1996-03-01

    Connections between large-scale interannual variations of clouds, deep convection, atmospheric winds, vertical thermodynamic structure, and sea surface temperatures (SST) over global tropical oceans are examined. SST warming associated with El Nino significantly impacted the global tropical cloud field. Extensive variations of the total cloud field, dominated by changes of high and middle clouds, occurred in the northeastern Indian, western and central Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans. Total cloud variation, dominated by low cloud variation, was relatively weak in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic due to cancellation between high and low cloud changes. Destabilization of the lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb was more important in enhancing convective instability than was the change of local SST in the equatorial central Pacific during the 1987 El Nino. In the subtropical Pacific, the change of lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb associated with anomalous subsidence and the decrease of boundary-layer buoyancy due to a decrease of temperature and moisture were important in enhancing convective stability. Consequently, convection and high and middle clouds decreased in these areas. The change of low clouds in the equatoral and southeastern Atlantic correlated to local SST and SST changes in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the increase of low clouds was consistent with the sharper inversion during the 1987 El Nino. The coherence between clouds and SST tendency shows that SST tendency leads cloud variation in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the change of clouds does not dominate the sign of SST tendency even though the cloud change was maximum during the 1987 El Nino. In some areas of the Indian, subtropical Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans, cloud change leads SST tendency. Cloud change might affect SST tendency in these regions. 60 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  17. The study to enhance the mask global CD uniformity by removing local CD variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Yongkyoo; Kim, Munsik; Han, Oscar

    2007-03-01

    As pattern size is shrinking, required mask CD specification is tighter and its effect on wafer patterning is more severe. Recent study showed that the effect of mask local CD variation of mask on wafer is much smaller than that of global CD variation.[1] To enhance the device performance, wafer CD uniformity should be enhanced and controlled by mask global CD uniformity. Mask global CD uniformity usually can be enhanced by mask process and optimal fogging effect correction. To enhance the mask global CD uniformity on mask, resist process and FEC (Fogging Effect Correction), reliable CD measurement tool and methods are necessary. Recently, group CD using OCD(Spectroscopic Ellipsometer) or AIMS(Aerial Image Measurement and Simulation) or polynomial fitting method is introduced to represent global CD variation on mask.[2][3][4] These methods are removing local CD variation on mask. The local CD variation will be remained as residual CD after approximation. In this paper, local CD variation of mask and wafer is evaluated and 2 kinds of methods are used to measure CD on mask and wafer, and the correlation of global CD of mask and field CD of wafer are evaluated. And the repeatability of field to field CD uniformity of wafer is evaluated to correct the fields CD uniformity of wafer by controlling the selective changing of transmittance of mask or to feed back to mask process. Higher correlation between fields of wafer, more accurate correction can be possible.

  18. Cosmic ray intensity variations in connection with the level of precipitation and ground temperature variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.

    If cosmic ray ionization of lower atmosphere influenced on cloudiness covering, we will expect also some correllation of cosmic ray intensity with the level of precipitation and ground temperature variations: with increasing of cosmic ray intensity will be increase cloudiness covering, so we will expect increasing of the level of precipitation and decreasing of the ground temperature. We compare observed during many years on many meteorological stations in former USSR and later in Russia, as well as in Israel and other countries available data on time variations of the level of precipitation and ground temperature variations with cosmic ray data on cosmic ray variations from many stations of worldwide network and determined the regression and correlation coefficients. We discuss the obtained results in the frame of the problem of possible cosmic ray influence on processes in the atmosphere, on weather and climate change experiments effects of atmospheric electric field in cosmic rays. On the basis of cosmic ray and atmospheric electric field one minute data obtained by NM and EFS of Emilio Segre' Observatory (hight 2025 m above s.l., cosmic ray cut-off rigidity for vertical direction 10.8 GV) we determine the atmospheric electric field effect in CR for total neutron intensity and for multiplicities m ≥ 1, m ≥ 2, m ≥ 3, m ≥ 4, m ≥ 5, m ≥ 6, m ≥ 7, and m ≥ 8, as well as for m = 1, m = 2, m = 3, m = 4, m = 5, m = 6, and m = 7. For comparison and excluding primary CR variations we use also one minute data on neutron multiplicities obtained by NM in Rome and other cosmic ray stations. According to the theoretical calculations of Dorman and Dorman (2004) the electric field effect in the NM counting rate must be caused mainly by captchuring of slow negative muons by lead nucleus with escaping few neutrons. As it was shown in Dorman and Dorman (2004), the biggest electric field effect is expected in the multiplicity m = 1, much smaller in m = 2 and

  19. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.

    PubMed

    Peng, Shaobing; Huang, Jianliang; Sheehy, John E; Laza, Rebecca C; Visperas, Romeo M; Zhong, Xuhua; Centeno, Grace S; Khush, Gurdev S; Cassman, Kenneth G

    2004-07-01

    The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 degrees C and 1.13 degrees C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming. PMID:15226500

  20. Diurnal Variations of Titan's Surface Temperatures From Cassini -CIRS Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cottini, Valeria; Nixon, Conor; Jennings, Don; Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, Robert; Irwin, Patrick; Flasar, F. Michael

    The Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) observations of Saturn's largest moon, Titan, are providing us with the ability to detect the surface temperature of the planet by studying its outgoing radiance through a spectral window in the thermal infrared at 19 m (530 cm-1) characterized by low opacity. Since the first acquisitions of CIRS Titan data the in-strument has gathered a large amount of spectra covering a wide range of latitudes, longitudes and local times. We retrieve the surface temperature and the atmospheric temperature pro-file by modeling proper zonally averaged spectra of nadir observations with radiative transfer computations. Our forward model uses the correlated-k approximation for spectral opacity to calculate the emitted radiance, including contributions from collision induced pairs of CH4, N2 and H2, haze, and gaseous emission lines (Irwin et al. 2008). The retrieval method uses a non-linear least-squares optimal estimation technique to iteratively adjust the model parameters to achieve a spectral fit (Rodgers 2000). We show an accurate selection of the wide amount of data available in terms of footprint diameter on the planet and observational conditions, together with the retrieved results. Our results represent formal retrievals of surface brightness temperatures from the Cassini CIRS dataset using a full radiative transfer treatment, and we compare to the earlier findings of Jennings et al. (2009). The application of our methodology over wide areas has increased the planet coverage and accuracy of our knowledge of Titan's surface brightness temperature. In particular we had the chance to look for diurnal variations in surface temperature around the equator: a trend with slowly increasing temperature toward the late afternoon reveals that diurnal temperature changes are present on Titan surface. References: Irwin, P.G.J., et al.: "The NEMESIS planetary atmosphere radiative transfer and retrieval tool" (2008). JQSRT, Vol. 109, pp

  1. Photospheric Temperature Variations near the Solar Limb II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivian, Martin; Hudson, H. S.

    2013-07-01

    We use observations from the Solar Aspect Sensor (SAS) of RHESSI to characterize the latitude dependence of the temperature of the photosphere near the solar limb. Previous observations had suggested the presence of a polar temperature excess as large as 1.5 K. The RHESSI observations, made with a rotating telescope in space, have great advantages in the rejection of systematic errors in the very precise photometry required for such an observation. This photometry is differential, i.e. relative to a mean limb-darkening function. The data base consists of about 1,000 images per day from linear CCDs with 1.73 arc sec square pixels, observing a narrow band (12nm FWHM) at 670 nm. Each image shows a chord crossing the disk at a different location as the spacecraft rotates and precesses around its average solar pointing. We fit an average limb-darkening function and reassemble the residuals into synoptic maps of differential intensity variations as a function of position angle. We further mask these images against EUV images (SOHO/EIT 284A for older data and SDO/AIA for more recent data) in order to eliminate magnetic regions. We present results from our new analysis which shows significantly larger signals of latitude-dependent temperature variations than what has been presented earlier in our preliminary analysis and interpretation.Abstract (2,250 Maximum Characters): We use observations from the Solar Aspect Sensor (SAS) of RHESSI to characterize the latitude dependence of the temperature of the photosphere near the solar limb. Previous observations had suggested the presence of a polar temperature excess as large as 1.5 K. The RHESSI observations, made with a rotating telescope in space, have great advantages in the rejection of systematic errors in the very precise photometry required for such an observation. This photometry is differential, i.e. relative to a mean limb-darkening function. The data base consists of about 1,000 images per day from linear CCDs with 1

  2. Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

    2013-01-01

    We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

  3. Intraspecific trait variation across scales: implications for understanding global change responses.

    PubMed

    Moran, Emily V; Hartig, Florian; Bell, David M

    2016-01-01

    Recognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecological processes has been growing, but empirical studies and models of global change have only begun to address this issue in detail. This review discusses sources and patterns of intraspecific trait variation and their consequences for understanding how ecological processes and patterns will respond to global change. We examine how current ecological models and theories incorporate intraspecific variation, review existing data sources that could help parameterize models that account for intraspecific variation in global change predictions, and discuss new data that may be needed. We provide guidelines on when it is most important to consider intraspecific variation, such as when trait variation is heritable or when nonlinear relationships are involved. We also highlight benefits and limitations of different model types and argue that many common modeling approaches such as matrix population models or global dynamic vegetation models can allow a stronger consideration of intraspecific trait variation if the necessary data are available. We recommend that existing data need to be made more accessible, though in some cases, new experiments are needed to disentangle causes of variation. PMID:26061811

  4. Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Thomson, Allison M.

    2010-03-25

    Soil respiration (RS), the flux of CO2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere, comprises the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux, but its dynamics are incompletely understood, and the global flux remains poorly constrained. Ecosystem warming experiments, modelling analyses, and biokinetics all suggest that RS should change with climate. This has been difficult to confirm observationally because of the high spatial variability of RS, inaccessibility of the soil medium, and inability of remote sensing instruments to measure large-scale RS fluxes. Given these constraints, is it possible to discern climate-driven changes in regional or global RS fluxes in the extant four-decade record of RS chamber measurements? Here we use a database of worldwide RS observations, matched with high-resolution historical climate data, to show a previously unknown temporal trend in the RS record after accounting for mean annual climate, leaf area, nitrogen deposition, and changes in CO2 measurement technique. Air temperature anomaly (deviation from the 1961-1990 mean) is significantly and positively correlated with changes in RS fluxes; both temperature and precipitation anomalies exert effects in specific biomes. We estimate that the current (2008) annual global RS flux is 98±12 Pg and has increased 0.1 Pg yr-1 over the last 20 years, implying a global RS temperature response (Q10) of 1.5. An increasing global RS flux does not necessarily constitute a positive feedback loop to the atmosphere; nonetheless, the available data are consistent with an acceleration of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to global climate change.

  5. Variations of global mesoscale eddy energy observed from Geosat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shum, C. K.; Werner, R. A.; Sandwell, D. T.; Zhang, B. H.; Tapley, B. D.; Nerem, R. S.

    1990-01-01

    Data on oceanic-current variability were extracted from Geosat altimeter observations for 44 17-day repeat cycles, using the Sandwell and Zhang (1989) technique to process the altimeter data and to produce a sea-surface-slope profile having an estimated accuracy of 0.2 microrad. These were used to generate a series of global eddy kinetic energy maps, each averaged over 3 months, together with their mean. It was found that the maximum mean eddy kinetic energy per unit mass exceeds 2000 sq cm/sq sec for most of the western boundary currents; for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, however, this value reaches only 500 sq cm/sq sec.

  6. Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Khaliq, Imran; Hof, Christian; Prinzinger, Roland; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Pfenninger, Markus

    2014-01-01

    The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. PMID:25009066

  7. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Dai, Xingang

    2015-06-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called `hiatus' period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  8. Decadal Modulation of Global Surface Temperature By Internal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, A.; Fyfe, J. C.; Xie, S. P.; Dai, X.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernable warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyze observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land since 1920. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called "hiatus" period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from GHG-induced warming. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  9. The effects of temperature on political violence: global evidence at the subnational level.

    PubMed

    Bollfrass, Alexander; Shaver, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level--provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks. PMID:25992616

  10. The Effects of Temperature on Political Violence: Global Evidence at the Subnational Level

    PubMed Central

    Bollfrass, Alexander; Shaver, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level — provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks. PMID:25992616

  11. Latitude-Dependent Temperature Variations at the Solar Limb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivian, M. D.; Hudson, H. S.; Lin, R. P.; Zahid, H. J.

    2009-12-01

    We use observations from the solar aspect sensor of RHESSI to characterize the latitude dependence of the temperature of the photosphere at the solar limb. Previous observations have suggested the presence of a polar temperature excess as large as 1.5 K. The RHESSI observations, made with a rotating telescope in space, have great advantages in the rejection of systematic errors in the very precise photometry required for such an observation. This photometry is differential, i.e. relative to a mean limb-darkening function. The data base consists of about 1,000 images per day from linear CCDs with 1.73 arc sec square pixels, observing a narrow band (12nm FWHM) at 670 nm. Each image shows a chord crossing the disk at a different location as the spacecraft rotates and precesses around its average solar pointing. We fit an average limb-darkening function and reassemble the residuals into synoptic maps of differential intensity variations as function of position angle. We further mask these images against SOHO/EIT 284A images in order to eliminate magnetic regions. The analysis establishes a limit on the quadrupole dependence of temperature (brightness) on position angle of 0.04 +/- 0.02 K. This results in a possible correction of our precise measurement of the solar oblateness which is smaller than its rms error of 0.14 mas.

  12. Multicomponent, multiphase flow in porous media with temperature variation

    SciTech Connect

    Wingard, J.S.; Orr, F.M. Jr.

    1990-10-01

    Recovery of hydrocarbons from porous media is an ongoing concern. Advanced techniques augment conventional recovery methods by injecting fluids that favorably interact with the oil. These fluids interact with the oil by energy transfer, in the case of steam injection, or by mass transfer, as in a miscible gas flood. Often both thermal and compositional considerations are important. An understanding of these injection methods requires knowledge of how temperature variations, phase equilibrium and multiphase flow in porous media interact. The material balance for each component and energy balance are cast as a system of non-strictly hyperbolic partial differential equations. This system of equations is solved using the method of characteristics. The model takes into account the phase behavior by using the Peng-Robinson equation of state to partition the individual components into different phases. Temperature effects are accounted for by the energy balance. Flow effects are modelled by using fractional flow curves and a Stone's three phase relative permeability model. Three problems are discussed. The first problem eliminates the phase behavior aspect of the problem by studying the flow of a single component as it undergoes an isothermal phase change. The second couples the effects of temperature and flow behavior by including a second component that is immiscible with the original component. Phase behavior is added by using a set of three partially miscible components that partition into two or three separate phases. 66 refs., 54 figs., 14 tabs.

  13. Interannual Variations in Simulated and Observed MSU-2 Temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, J.

    2000-08-16

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 temperatures are computed for three sets of model experiments and their interannual variation is compared to that of the observed. The models used are: (1) an ensemble of ten integrations of the NCAR CCM3 using prescribed SSTs for 1979 t o 1995, (2) A 300 year integration of the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (which has the CCM3 as the atmospheric model) and (3) a 300 year integration of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. In addition Nino34 and AO indices were computed from SST and MSLP of each data set. The observed data spanned the period of 1979 to 1998. The CCM3 integrations used the observed SSTs from 1979 to 1995. The 300 year coupled runs were divided into non-overlapping 20 year segments and each segment was processed independently. The EOFs of the zonally averaged, monthly mean MSU-2 anomalies were computed. An SVD analysis of the covariance of the tropical (30S-30N) precipitation and MSU-2 was carried out. The first and second mode of the observations are related to the ENSO variations and the Arctic Oscillation, respectively. The Nino34 index leads the ENSO mode by 5 months in the observations. For the nine realizations of the CCM3, all have the ENSO as the leading mode but one does not have the AO as the second. The lag between the Nino34 and leading EOF decreases to about 3 months.The fourteen PCM 20 year segments show a similar variation to the CCM3, but the lag is decreased to 2 months. All fourteen of the ECHAM segments have the ENSO and AO as the leading and second modes. The fourteen ECHAM data sets evince smaller variations between segments than the PCM and even the CCM3 realizations. The lag between the ECHAM Nino34 and the leading EOF is about 3 months.Thus, both coupled models have a substantially faster response to variations in tropical SSTs. This can affect the way that these models simulate the relation between the seasonal cycle and ENSO.

  14. ITRF2014 GNSS vertical velocities and global Earth figure variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Métivier, Laurent; Rouby, Hélène; Rebischung, Paul; Altamimi, Zuheir

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the GNSS station vertical velocities provided by the new solution of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, the ITRF2014. Constructed from a global network of approximately 1500 stations of the different space geodetic techniques, this new solution provides two times more GNSS station velocities than the ITRF2008, and shows a global pattern of vertical velocities very homogeneous regionally. As in the ITRF2008 solution, large vertical velocities can be seen over North America, Northern Europe, or Antarctica, probably induced predominantly by the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) still occurring today since the last deglaciation. But the ITRF2014 solution shows also large vertical velocities over regions such as Greenland and Alaska clearly larger than in the ITRF2008, probably related to last decadal ice melting and its possible acceleration. We investigate different methods to calculate low degree spherical harmonics coefficient from ITRF2014 GNSS vertical velocities. We particularly focus on the components related to the geocenter motion, the ellipticity of the solid Earth, and the J2 rate, and we present time tendencies with respect to different GIA and recent ice melting models.

  15. Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

    2010-01-01

    Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

  16. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    PubMed

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-01

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature. PMID:20404180

  17. Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. Ionospheric temperature variations during 1976-2001 over Millstone Hill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, S.; Holt, J.

    Incoherent scatter measurements have been made since the 1960s over Millstone Hill. Data from the zenith antenna experiments since 1976 and from the steerable elevationscan experiments since 1980 have now been available with our robust WWW-based database system, called Madrigal. We have started analyzing and modeling such a huge volume of data in a systematic way in order to meet space weather needs, to review the ionosphere/thermosphere climatology, and to address some outstanding scientific issues over the sub-auroral region for North American area. This paper concerns the plasma temperature variations. A bin-fit technique is applied to sort data according to time, altitude, latitude, and season, and to construct empirical models in terms of solar activity and geomagnetic activity. Variation patterns to be presented include annual/semiannual, seasonal, diurnal, and solar activity dependences for quiet geomagnetic activity. Shown also are latitudinal trends over a 32-54 degree latitude span. These local and regional model results are compared with corresponding International Reference Ionosphere model. We finally describe briefly our plans for future modeling efforts.

  19. Temporal variations in Global Seismic Stations ambient noise power levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ringler, A.T.; Gee, L.S.; Hutt, C.R.; McNamara, D.E.

    2010-01-01

    Recent concerns about time-dependent response changes in broadband seismometers have motivated the need for methods to monitor sensor health at Global Seismographic Network (GSN) stations. We present two new methods for monitoring temporal changes in data quality and instrument response transfer functions that are independent of Earth seismic velocity and attenuation models by comparing power levels against different baseline values. Our methods can resolve changes in both horizontal and vertical components in a broad range of periods (∼0.05 to 1,000 seconds) in near real time. In this report, we compare our methods with existing techniques and demonstrate how to resolve instrument response changes in long-period data (>100 seconds) as well as in the microseism bands (5 to 20 seconds).

  20. Long term variations in global sea level extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcos, Marta; Calafat, Francisco M.; Berihuete, Ángel; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2016-04-01

    Decadal to multi-decadal variations in sea level extremes unrelated to mean sea level changes have been investigated using long tide gauge records distributed worldwide. A state space approach has been applied that provides robust solutions and uncertainties of the time evolving characteristics of extremes, allowing for data gaps and uneven sampling, both common features of historical sea level time series. Two different models have been formulated for the intensity and for the occurrence of extreme sea level events and have been applied independently to each tide gauge record. Our results reveal two key findings: first, the intensity and the frequency of occurrence of extreme sea levels unrelated to mean sea level vary coherently on decadal scales in most of the sites examined and, second, extreme sea level changes are regionally consistent, thus pointing towards a common large scale forcing. This variability of extremes associated with climate drivers should be considered in the framework of climate change studies.

  1. Long-term variations in global sea level extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcos, Marta; Calafat, Francisco M.; Berihuete, Ángel; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2015-12-01

    Decadal to multidecadal variations in sea level extremes unrelated to mean sea level changes have been investigated using long tide gauge records distributed worldwide. A state space approach has been applied that provides robust solutions and uncertainties of the time evolving characteristics of extremes, allowing for data gaps and uneven sampling, both common features of historical sea level time series. Two different models have been formulated for the intensity and for the occurrence of extreme sea level events and have been applied independently to each tide gauge record. Our results reveal two key findings: first, the intensity and the frequency of occurrence of extreme sea levels unrelated to mean sea level vary coherently on decadal scales in most of the sites examined (63 out of 77) and, second, extreme sea level changes are regionally consistent, thus pointing toward a common large-scale forcing. This variability of extremes associated with climate drivers should be considered in the framework of climate change studies.

  2. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature.

    PubMed

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X San

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

  3. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    PubMed Central

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

  4. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-02-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes.

  5. Upper Temperature Limits of Tropical Marine Ectotherms: Global Warming Implications

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Khanh Dung T.; Morley, Simon A.; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S.; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E.; Peck, Lloyd S.

    2011-01-01

    Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour−1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41–52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37–41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2–3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming. PMID:22242115

  6. Global critical temperature in disordered superconductors with weak multifractality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayoh, James; García-García, Antonio M.

    2015-11-01

    There is growing evidence that a key feature of sufficiently disordered superconductors is the spatial inhomogeneity of the order parameter. However, not much is known analytically about the impact of the inhomogeneity on the global critical temperature that signals the onset of resistance in the superconductor. Here we address this problem in the experimentally relevant case of disordered conventional superconductors characterized by weak multifractality such as quasi-two-dimensional thin films. We compute analytically the superconducting energy gap, the temperature at which it vanishes, and the energy dependence and spatial distribution of the order parameter. The latter is found to be log normal. The global critical temperature, computed by percolation techniques, is much smaller than the temperature at which the energy gap vanishes. We show that disorder might enhance superconductivity but only for very weakly coupled superconductors, such as Al, and for relatively weak phase fluctuations. These results are consistent with experiments where enhancement of the critical temperature is observed in Al thin films but not in more strongly coupled materials.

  7. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, J.; Holtanová, E.; Pišoft, P.

    2015-11-01

    Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded datasets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (anthropogenic, solar and volcanic) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to individual explanatory variables in local monthly temperatures as well as in their global means, over the 1901-2010 period. Strong correlations of temperature and anthropogenic forcing were confirmed for most of the globe, whereas only weaker and mostly statistically insignificant connections to solar activity were indicated. Imprints of volcanic forcing were found to be largely insignificant in the local temperatures, in contrast to the clear volcanic signature in their global averages. An attention was also paid to the manifestations of short-term time shifts in the responses to the forcings, and to differences in the spatial fingerprints detected from individual temperature datasets: it is shown that although the resemblance of the response patterns is usually strong, some regional contrasts appear. Noteworthy differences from the other datasets were found especially for the 20th Century Reanalysis, particularly for the components attributable to anthropogenic and volcanic forcing over land, but also in some of the teleconnection patterns related to the internal variability modes.

  8. A computer model of global thermospheric winds and temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Killeen, T. L.; Roble, R. G.; Spencer, N. W.

    1987-01-01

    Output data from the NCAR Thermospheric GCM and a vector-spherical-harmonic (VSH) representation of the wind field are used in constructing a computer model of time-dependent global horizontal vector neutral wind and temperature fields at altitude 130-300 km. The formulation of the VSH model is explained in detail, and some typical results obtained with a preliminary version (applicable to December solstice at solar maximum) are presented graphically. Good agreement with DE-2 satellite measurements is demonstrated.

  9. High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folland, Chris K.; Colman, Andrew W.; Smith, Doug M.; Boucher, Olivier; Parker, David E.; Vernier, Jean-Paul

    2013-02-01

    We discuss 13 real-time forecasts of global annual-mean surface temperature issued by the United Kingdom Met Office for 1 year ahead for 2000-2012. These involve statistical, and since 2008, initialized dynamical forecasts using the Met Office DePreSys system. For the period when the statistical forecast system changed little, 2000-2010, issued forecasts had a high correlation of 0.74 with observations and a root mean square error of 0.07°C. However, the HadCRUT data sets against which issued forecasts were verified were biased slightly cold, especially from 2004, because of data gaps in the strongly warming Arctic. This observational cold bias was mainly responsible for a statistically significant warm bias in the 2000-2010 forecasts of 0.06°C. Climate forcing data sets used in the statistical method, and verification data, have recently been modified, increasing hindcast correlation skill to 0.80 with no significant bias. Dynamical hindcasts for 2000-2011 have a similar correlation skill of 0.78 and skillfully hindcast annual mean spatial global surface temperature patterns. Such skill indicates that we have a good understanding of the main factors influencing global mean surface temperature.

  10. Soil temperature synchronisation improves estimation of daily variation of ecosystem respiration in Sphagnum peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Angelo, Benoît; Gogo, Sébastien; Le Moing, Franck; Jégou, Fabrice; Guimbaud, Christophe; Laggoun, Fatima

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem respiration (ER) is a key process in the global C cycle and thus, plays an important role in the climate regulation. Peatlands contain a third of the world soil C in spite of their relatively low global area (3% of land area). Although these ecosystems represent potentially a significant source of C under global change, they are still not taken into account accordingly in global climatic models. Therefore, ER variations have to be accounted for, especially by estimating its dependence to temperature.s The relationship between ER and temperature often relies only on one soil temperature depth and the latter is generally taken in the first 10 centimetres. Previous studies showed that the temperature dependence of ER depends on the depth at which the temperature is recorded. The depth selection for temperature measurement is thus a predominant issue. A way to deal with this is to analyse the time-delay between ER and temperature. The aim of this work is to assess whether using synchronised data in models leads to a better ER daily variation estimation than using non-synchronised data. ER measurements were undertaken in 2013 in 4 Sphagnum peatlands across France: La Guette (N 47°19'44', E 2°17'04', 154m) in July, Landemarais (N 48°26'30', E -1°10'54', 145m) in August, Frasne (N 46°49'35', E 6°10'20', 836m) in September, and Bernadouze (N 42°48'09', E 1°25'24', 1500m) in October. A closed method chamber was used to measure ER hourly during 72 hours in each of the 4 replicates installed in each site. Average ER ranged from 1.75 μmol m-2 s-1 to 6.13 μmol m-2 s-1. A weather station was used to record meteorological data and soil temperature profiles (5, 10, 20 and 30 cm). Synchronised data were determined for each depth by selecting the time-delay leading to the best correlation between ER and soil temperature. The data were used to simulate ER according to commonly used equations: linear, exponential with Q10, Arrhenius, Lloyd and Taylor. Models

  11. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  12. Temperature Variations from HST Imagery and Spectroscopy of NGC 7009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rubin, R. H.; Bhatt, N. J.; Dufour, R. J.; Buckalew, B. A.; Barlow, M. J.; Liu, X.-W.; Storey, P. J.; Balick, B.; Harrington, J. P.; Ferland, G. J.

    2002-01-01

    We present new HST/WFPC2 imagery and STIS long-slit spectroscopy of the planetary nebula NGC 7009. The primary goal was to obtain high spatial resolution of the intrinsic line ratio [O III] 4364/5008 and thereby evaluate the electron temperature (Te) and the mean-square Te variation (t(sup 2, sub A)) across the nebula. The observations here do not address Te fluctuation along the line of sight. The WFPC2 Te map is rather uniform; almost all values are between 9000 - 11,000 K, with the higher Te's closely coinciding with the inner He(++)-zone. The results indicate very small values - certainly less than 0.01 - for t(sup 2, sub A) throughout. Our STIS data allow an even more direct determination of Te and t(sup 2, sub A), albeit for a much smaller area than with WFPC2. We present results from binning the data along the slit into tiles that are 0.5 in square (matching the slit width). The average [O III] temperature using 45 tiles (excluding the central star and STIS fiducial bars) is 10,146 K; t(sup 2, sub A) is 0.0036. Although we have measured t(sup 2, sub A) in only 2-dimensions, we conclude that temperature fluctuations alone are unlikely to explain for NGC 7009 the large discrepancy between heavy element abundances inferred from emission lines that are collisionally excited compared with those that are due to recombination lines.

  13. On the Assessment of Global Terrestrial Reference Frame Temporal Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Koenig, Rolf; Zhu, Shengyuan

    2015-04-01

    Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (GTRFs) as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) provide reliable 4-D position information (3-D coordinates and their evolution through time). The given 3-D velocities play a significant role in precise position acquisition and are estimated from long term coordinate time series from the space-geodetic techniques DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI. GTRFs temporal evolution is directly connected with their internal stability: The more intense and inhomogeneous velocity field, the less stable TRF is derived. The assessment of the quality of the GTRF is mainly realized by comparing it to each individual technique's reference frame. E.g the comparison of GTRFs to SLR-only based TRF gives the sense of the ITRF stability with respect to the Geocenter and scale and their associated rates respectively. In addition, the comparison of ITRF to the VLBI-only based TRF can be used for the scale validation. However, till now there is not any specified methodology for the total assessment (in terms of origin, orientation and scale respectively) of the temporal evolution and GTRFs associated accuracy. We present a new alternative diagnostic tool for the assessment of GTRFs temporal evolution based on the well-known time-dependent Helmert type transformation formula (three shifts, three rotations and scale rates respectively). The advantage of the new methodology relies on the fact that it uses the full velocity field of the TRF and therefore all points not just the ones common to different techniques. It also examines simultaneously rates of origin, orientation and scale. The methodology is presented and implemented to the two existing GTRFs on the market (ITRF and DTRF which is computed from DGFI) , the results are discussed. The results also allow to compare directly each GTRF dynamic behavior. Furthermore, the correlations of the estimated parameters can also provide useful information to the proposed GTRFs assessment scheme.

  14. Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors

    PubMed Central

    Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan

    2008-01-01

    Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that cause both warming and cooling of climate, and the effects operate on very different timescales. We calculate climate responses in terms of global mean temperature and find large differences between the transport sectors with respect to the size and mix of short- and long-lived effects, and even the sign of the temperature response. For year 2000 emissions, road transport has the largest effect on global mean temperature. After 20 and 100 years the response in net temperature is 7 and 6 times higher, respectively, than for aviation. Aviation and shipping have strong but quite uncertain short-lived warming and cooling effects, respectively, that dominate during the first decades after the emissions. For shipping the net cooling during the first 4 decades is due to emissions of SO2 and NOx. On a longer timescale, the current emissions from shipping cause net warming due to the persistence of the CO2 perturbation. If emissions stay constant at 2000 levels, the warming effect from road transport will continue to increase and will be almost 4 times larger than that of aviation by the end of the century. PMID:19047640

  15. Using a local gyrokinetic code to study global ion temperature gradient modes in tokamaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdoul, P. A.; Dickinson, D.; Roach, C. M.; Wilson, H. R.

    2015-06-01

    In this paper the global eigenmode structures of linear ion temperature gradient (ITG) modes in tokamak plasmas are obtained using a novel technique which combines results from the local gyrokinetic code GS2 with analytical theory to reconstruct global properties. Local gyrokinetic calculations are performed for a range of radial flux surfaces, x, and ballooning phase angles, p, to map out the local complex mode frequency, Ω0(x, p) = ω0(x, p) + iγ0(x, p) for a single toroidal mode number, n. Taylor expanding Ω0 about a reference surface at x = 0, and employing the Fourier-ballooning representation leads to a second order ODE for the amplitude envelope, A(p), which describes how the local results are combined to form the global mode. The equilibrium profiles impact on the variation of Ω0(x, p) and hence influence the global mode structure. The simulations presented here are based upon a global extension to the CYCLONE base case and employ the circular Miller equilibrium model. In an equilibrium with radially varying profiles of a/LT and a/Ln, peaked at x = 0, and with all other equilibrium profiles held constant, including ηi = Ln/LT, Ω0(x, p) is found to have a stationary point. The reconstructed global mode sits at the outboard mid-plane of the tokamak, with global growth rate, γ ∼ Max[γ0]. Including the radial variation of other equilibrium profiles like safety factor and magnetic shear, leads to a mode that peaks away from the outboard mid-plane, with a reduced global growth rate. Finally, the influence of toroidal flow shear has also been investigated through the introduction of a Doppler shift, {ω0}\\to {ω0}-nΩ φ\\prime x , where Ωϕ is the equilibrium toroidal flow, and a prime denotes the radial derivative. The equilibrium profile variations introduce an asymmetry into the global growth rate spectrum with respect to the sign of Ω φ\\prime , such that the maximum growth rate is achieved with non-zero shearing, consistent with recent global

  16. Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation

    PubMed Central

    MANEL, STÉPHANIE; GUGERLI, FELIX; THUILLER, WILFRIED; ALVAREZ, NADIR; LEGENDRE, PIERRE; HOLDEREGGER, ROLF; GIELLY, LUDOVIC; TABERLET, PIERRE

    2014-01-01

    Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran’s eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps. PMID:22680783

  17. Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

    PubMed Central

    Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

    1997-01-01

    An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

  18. Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

    1994-01-01

    Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

  19. Resistivity Variation due to CO2 Migration in Different Temperature and Pressure Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatsuka, Y.; Onishi, K.; Yamada, Y.; Matsuoka, T.; Xue, Z.

    2007-12-01

    CO2 geological sequestration is one of the effective approaches solving the global warming problem. Captured CO2 is injected to the deep aquifers or depleted oil and gas fields. Injected CO2 migrates thorough the reservoir rock, however, the details behavior of injected CO2 under the ground at super critical phase is not yet fully understood. Migration of injected CO2 will change by the condition of the injected reservoir such as the temperature and pressure. Also density and permeability of the rock may be changed due to temperature or pressure variations. These changes control the migration behavior of injected CO2. In this study, experiments of resistivity measurements were conducted to detect the migration difference of CO2 in different temperature and pressure conditions by using sandstone core samples. Core sample was taken from Berea sandstone and processed to 5cm diameter and 12cm length. For the resistivity measurement, impression electrode was set on the both end and the measurement electrode of ring condition was set on the side of the rock sample. We stetted the core sample in the pressure vessel and recreated the condition of underground reservoir which is high pressure and high temperature. We injected supercritical CO2 in different pressure and temperature for each experiment. Pressure was changed in range of 8 to 11MPa and temperature was changed in range of 35° to 45°. This means that all the experiments were conducted in supercritical phase. From the measured resistivity variation, we verified the migration of CO2 and compared the migration behavior of CO2 in different conditions.

  20. Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackerras, D.; Darvenzia, M.; Orville, R. E.; Williams, E. R.; Goodman, S. J.

    1999-01-01

    A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

  1. Spectral Approach to Optimal Estimation of the Global Average Temperature.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; North, Gerald R.; Kim, Kwang-Y.

    1994-12-01

    Making use of EOF analysis and statistical optimal averaging techniques, the problem of random sampling error in estimating the global average temperature by a network of surface stations has been investigated. The EOF representation makes it unnecessary to use simplified empirical models of the correlation structure of temperature anomalies. If an adjustable weight is assigned to each station according to the criterion of minimum mean-square error, a formula for this error can be derived that consists of a sum of contributions from successive EOF modes. The EOFs were calculated from both observed data and a noise-forced EBM for the problem of one-year and five-year averages. The mean square statistical sampling error depends on the spatial distribution of the stations, length of the averaging interval, and the choice of the weight for each station data stream. Examples used here include four symmetric configurations of 4 × 4, 6 × 4, 9 × 7, and 20 × 10 stations and the Angell-Korshover configuration. Comparisons with the 100-yr U.K. dataset show that correlations for the time series of the global temperature anomaly average between the full dataset and this study's sparse configurations are rather high. For example, the 63-station Angell-Korshover network with uniform weighting explains 92.7% of the total variance, whereas the same network with optimal weighting can lead to 97.8% explained total variance of the U.K. dataset.

  2. Spectral approach to optimal estimation of the global average temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, S.S.P.; North, G.R.; Kim, K.Y.

    1994-12-01

    Making use of EOF analysis and statistical optimal averaging techniques, the problem of random sampling error in estimating the global average temperature by a network of surface stations has been investigated. The EOF representation makes it unnecessary to use simplified empirical models of the correlation structure of temperature anomalies. If an adjustable weight is assigned to each station according to the criterion of minimum mean-square error, a formula for this error can be derived that consists of a sum of contributions from successive EOF modes. The EOFs were calculated from both observed data a noise-forced EBM for the problem of one-year and five-year averages. The mean square statistical sampling error depends on the spatial distribution of the stations, length of the averaging interval, and the choice of the weight for each station data stream. Examples used here include four symmetric configurations of 4 X 4, 5 X 4, 9 X 7, and 20 X 10 stations and the Angell-Korshover configuration. Comparisons with the 100-yr U.K. dataset show that correlations for the time series of the global temperature anomaly average between the full dataset and this study`s sparse configurations are rather high. For example, the 63-station Angell-Korshover network with uniform weighting explains 92.7% of the total variance, whereas the same network with optimal weighting can lead to 97.8% explained total variance of the U.K. dataset. 27 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, Eva; Pišoft, Petr

    2016-03-01

    Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded data sets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as solar and volcanic activity) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to individual explanatory variables in local monthly temperatures as well as in their global means, over the 1901-2010 period. Strong correlations of temperature and anthropogenic forcing were confirmed for most of the globe, whereas only weaker and mostly statistically insignificant connections to solar activity were indicated. Imprints of volcanic forcing were found to be largely insignificant in the local temperatures, in contrast to the clear volcanic signature in their global averages. Attention was also paid to the manifestations of short-term time shifts in the responses to the forcings, and to differences in the spatial fingerprints detected from individual temperature data sets. It is shown that although the resemblance of the response patterns is usually strong, some regional contrasts appear. Noteworthy differences from the other data sets were found especially for the 20th Century Reanalysis, particularly for the components attributable to anthropogenic forcing over land, but also in the response to volcanism and in some of the teleconnection patterns related to the internal climate variability modes.

  4. Intensification of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, B. T.

    2011-12-01

    Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot extremes. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical extreme values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of

  5. Temperature, density, and composition in the disturbed thermosphere from Esro 4 gas analyzer measurements - A global model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacchia, L. G.; Slowey, J. W.; Von Zahn, U.

    1977-01-01

    An analysis of density measurements of Ar, N2, O, and He made at 280 km with the gas analyzer aboard the polar-orbiting satellite Esro 4 has yielded a global model of the variations in temperature, density, and composition that occur in the disturbed thermosphere. In the model the increase of temperature over quiet conditions is a nonlinear function of the planetary geomagnetic index, its latitude profile being approximated by a fourth-power sin phi law, where phi is the 'invariant' magnetic latitude. A density wave proceeding from high latitudes is approximated by a fourth power cos phi law. A strong nonlinearity in the relation between the temperature variations and the variations in the height of the homopause explains a previously found behavioral difference in the variation of atomic oxygen during magnetic storms and during periods of sustained geomagnetic activity.

  6. Middle Pliocene sea surface temperatures: A global reconstruction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, H.; Barron, J.; Poore, R.

    1996-01-01

    Identification and analyses of Pliocene marine microfossils from 64 globally distributed stratigraphic sequences have been used to produce a middle Pliocene sea surface temperature reconstruction of the Earth. This reconstruction shows little or no change from current conditions in low latitude regions and significant warming of the ocean surface at mid and higher latitudes of both hemispheres. This pattern of warming is consistent with terrestrial records and suggests a combination of enhanced meridional ocean heat transport and enhanced greenhouse effect were responsible for the middle Pliocene warmth.

  7. Subtle porosity variation in the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) high-temperature superconductor revealed by ultrasonic imaging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roth, D. J.; Generazio, E. R.; Stang, D. B.; Hepp, A. F.

    1990-01-01

    The characterization of global porosity variation within a nominally 93-percent-dense specimen of YBa2Cu3O(7-x) high-temperature superconductor is reported. With a computer-controlled scanning system, precision ultrasonic velocity measurements were obtained at 100 micron increments over an 8- by 8-mm area of the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) specimen. The measurements were used to form a color map of velocity variation across the scanned region of the specimen. Subtle velocity variation on the order of 1 percent was observed. The specimen was shown by experimental methods to be single-phase, untextured, and free of nonuniform residual microstresses. From this knowledge and an established velocity-density relationship, a likely conclusion is that the observed velocity variations are solely due to porosity variations of similar magnitude. Locating these subtle porosity variations is critical since they can result in an order of magnitude variation in J(sub c) for dense YBCO specimens. Thus, mapping the global porosity distribution within YBa2Cu3O(7-x) may reveal regions that have poorer superconducting properties. Ultrasonic velocity results are translated into useful microstructural information for the material scientist.

  8. Interannual climate variations in Arctic as driven by the Global atmosphere oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Sidorova, Alexandra; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The present-day global climate change affects the Arctic basin substantially more because of the sea ice cover extinction and the permafrost melting. But there are essential variations of these effects from year to year. We believe that these variations might be a regional manifestation of a planetary-scale phenomenon named the Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO). GAO includes the well-known El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process and similar processes in equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans within itself. The goal of this report is to present some arguments to support this point of view. For this goal, we have studied some interrelations between the above-mentioned Arctic anomalies and GAO as seen in global re-analyses of the sea level pressure (SLP) and near surface temperature (NST) for the period of 1920-2013. The mean global fields of SLP and NST have been computed for all El Niño events falling into this time period, and separately, for all and La Niña events. As a result, two (for SLP and NST as well) global fields of the mean El Niño/La Niña difference were obtained. Statistical significance of the non-zero values of these fields, i.e. the reality of GAO, was evaluated with the t-Student's test. It turned out that the main spatial structures of GAO, presented specifically by El Niño and La Niña events in Pacific region, exist at a very high level (up to 99%, t>4) of the significance. Therefore, one can conclude that the interannual-scale dynamics of GAO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event GAO is indicative by a negative anomaly of NST (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of SLP over the Arctic basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of NST along with reduced SLP over the whole Arctic region is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95%, t>2). To control the reliability

  9. Fitting the observed changes of global surface temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtillot, V.; Le Mouël, J.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Gibert, D.; Lopes, F.

    2012-12-01

    The quality of the fit of a trivial or, conversely, delicately-designed model to the observed natural phenomena is the fundamental pillar stone of any forecasting, including forecasting of the Earth's Climate. Using precise mathematical and logical systems outside their range of applicability can be scientifically groundless, unwise, and even dangerous. The temperature data sets are naturally in the basis of any hypothesizing on variability and forecasting the Earth's Climate. Leaving open the question of the global temperature definitions and their determination (T), we have analyzed hemispheric and global monthly temperature anomaly series produced by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRUTEM4 database) and more recently by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST database). We first fit the data in 1850-2010 with polynomials of degrees 1 to 9 and compare it with exponential fit by the adjusted R-squared criterion that takes into consideration the number of free parameters of the model. In all the cases considered, the adjusted R-squared values for polynomials are larger than for the exponential as soon as the degree exceeds 1 or 2. The polynomial fits become even more satisfactory as soon as degree 5 or 6 is reached. Extrapolations of these trends outside of the data domain show quick divergence. For example, the CRUTEM4vNH fit in the decade 2010-2020, for degrees 2 to 5, rises steeply then, for degrees 6 to 9, reverses to steep decreasing: the reversal in extrapolated trends arises from improved ability to fit the observed "~60-yr" wave in 150 years of data prior to 2010. The extrapolations prior to 1850 are even more erratic, linked with the increased dispersion of the early data. When focusing the analysis of fits on 1900-2010 we find that the apparent oscillations of T can be modeled by a series of linear segments: An optimal fit suggests 4 slope breaks indicating two clear transitions in 1940 and 1975, and two that

  10. Estimation of surface temperature variations due to changes in sky and solar flux with elevation.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hummer-Miller, S.

    1981-01-01

    Sky and solar radiance are of major importance in determining the ground temperature. Knowledge of their behavior is a fundamental part of surface temperature models. These 2 fluxes vary with elevation and this variation produces temperature changes. Therefore, when using thermal-property differences to discriminate geologic materials, these flux variations with elevation need to be considered. -from Author

  11. Recent variations in mean temperature and the diurnal temperature range in the Antarctic

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, P.D.

    1995-06-01

    Monthly mean surface temperature data are available from nearly twenty stations for the period since the International Geophysical Year 1957. All but three stations show an increase in mean temperatures over this time, amounting in the average to 0.57{degrees}C over 1957 to 1994. All of this warming occurred before the early 1970s. Since then, there has been no change. The warming has been greatest in the Antarctic Peninsula. Analyses of the less-widely available diurnal temperature range (DTR) (maximum-minimum) data show regions of increase and decrease over Antarctica. An average continental DTR series shows no trend over 1957 to 1992. Analyses for six mid-to-high latitude Southern Ocean islands show increase in mean temperature over 1961-90. Given the low year-to-year variability in these data, these trends are more significant than for any of the stations on the Antarctic continent. The marked decrease in mean temperatures over Antarctica during 1993 and 1994 seems unrelated to sea-ice variations which show little change since the early 1980s. 17 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Global patterns of the trends in satellite-derived crop yield proxy, temperature and soil moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakai, T.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.

    2014-12-01

    Crop productivity (yield) is sensitive to climate variability and change. To inform stakeholders, including food agencies in food-importing countries, about future variations in food supply associated with climate variability and change, understanding major climatic drivers of the spatiotemporal variations in crop yield over global cropland during the last few decades is crucial. Although remote sensing has difficulty distinguishing individual crops and misses entire cropping cycles in areas where extensive cloud cover during the monsoon limits satellite observations, it is still useful in deriving a proxy of crop yield over large spatial domain and estimating the impacts on crop yield proxy due to climate, including land-surface temperature and surface-layer soil moisture. This study presents an attempt to globally depict the impact of climate change on crop yield proxy by applying a time series analysis to MODIS and AMSR-E satellite images. The crop yield proxy used was the annual maximum or integrated MODIS-derived NDVI during the growing period predefined on the basis of the global crop calendar. The trends in the crop yield proxy in the interval 2001-2013 appeared positive in higher latitudes and negative in lower latitudes. In higher latitudes (and thus colder regions), the increased land-surface temperature led to an increase in crop yield in part due to the enhanced photosynthesis rate. In contrast, the crop yield proxy showed negative correlation with land-surface temperature in lower latitudes. The increased temperature might decrease crop yield by increasing evapotranspiration rate, plant respiration and/or heat stress. The crop yield proxy was also correlated with the AMSR-E-derived soil moisture, although the geographical distribution of soil moisture was highly heterogeneous.

  13. Global gyrokinetic ion temperature gradient turbulence simulations of ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villard, L.; Angelino, P.; Bottino, A.; Brunner, S.; Jolliet, S.; McMillan, B. F.; Tran, T. M.; Vernay, T.

    2013-07-01

    Global gyrokinetic simulations of ion temperature gradient (ITG) driven turbulence in an ideal MHD ITER equilibrium plasma are performed with the ORB5 code. The noise control and field-aligned Fourier filtering procedures implemented in ORB5 are essential in obtaining numerically healthy results with a reasonable amount of computational effort: typical simulations require 109 grid points, 109 particles and, despite a particle per cell ratio of unity, achieve a signal to noise ratio larger than 50. As compared with a circular concentric configuration with otherwise similar parameters (same ρ* = 1/720), the effective heat diffusivity is considerably reduced for the ITER MHD equilibrium. A self-organized radial structure appears, with long-lived zonal flows (ZF), modulating turbulence heat transport and resulting in a corrugated temperature gradient profile. The ratio of long-lived ZF to the fluctuating ZF is markedly higher for the ITER MHD equilibrium as compared with circular configurations, thereby producing a more effective ITG turbulence suppression, in spite of a higher linear growth rate. As a result, the nonlinear critical temperature gradient, R/LTcrit,NL, is about twice the linear critical temperature gradient, R/LTcrit,lin. Moreover, the heat transport stiffness above the nonlinear threshold is considerably reduced as compared with circular cases. Plasma elongation is probably one of the essential causes of this behaviour: indeed, undamped ZF residual levels and geodesic acoustic mode damping are both increasing with elongation. Other possible causes of the difference, such as magnetic shear profile effects, are also investigated.

  14. Long-range Memory in Earth's Global Temperature and its Implications for Future Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypdal, K.; Oestvand, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Earth's climate is a driven complex system which responds to a variable radiative forcing on a vast range of time scales. The contribution explores the hypothesis that the temporal global temperature response can be modeled as a long-range memory (LRM) stochastic process characterized by a Hurst exponent 0.5temperature records we verify LRM scaling on time scales from months to several decades. We find that the LRM increases when one goes from regional (H= 0.7) to global (H=1.0) records and that LRM is highest in records strongly influenced by the ocean. The increasing trend through the last century cannot be explained as an unforced LRM fluctuation, but the observed 60-yr oscillation can. Analysis of a northern-hemisphere reconstruction for the last two millennia confirms LRM scaling up to at least 250 yr. If this record reconstructs the milennium-scale temperatures correctly there is a significant temperature difference between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age which cannot be explained as an inherent LRM fluctuation. We systematically investigate biases and uncertainties of a number of analysis methods, and conclude that for these record lengths it has no meaning to give Hurst exponents with more than one decimal. We also address the serious implications of such memory effects on future global warming due to the stronger disturbance of the Earth's energy balance under sustained forcing.

  15. Response of Tropical Clouds to the Interannual Variation of Sea Surface Temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fu, Rong; Liu, W. Timothy; Dickinson, Robert E.

    1996-01-01

    Connections between the large-scale interannual variations of clouds, deep convection, atmospheric winds. vertical thermodynamic structure, and SSTs over global tropical oceans are examined over the period July 1983 - December 1990. The SST warming associated with El Nino had a significant impact on the global tropical cloud field, although the warming itself was confined to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Extensive variations of the total cloud field occurred in the northeastern Indian, western and central Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans. The changes of high and middle clouds dominated the total cloud variation in these regions. Total cloud variation was relatively weak in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic because of the cancellation between the changes of high and low clouds. The variation of low clouds dominated the total cloud change in those areas. The destabilization of the lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb was more important for enhancing convective instability than was the change of local SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific during the 1997 El Nino. This destabilization is associated with anomalous rising motion in that region. As a result. convection and high and middle clouds increased in the equatorial central Pacific, In the subtropical Pacific, both the change of lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb associated A,ith anomalous subsidence and the decrease of boundary-layer buoyancy due to a decrease of temperature and moisture played an important role in enhancing convective stability. Consequently, convection, as well its high and middle clouds, decreased in these areas. The change ot'low clouds in the equatorial and southeastern Atlantic was correlated to both local SSTs and the SST changes in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this area. the increase of low clouds was consistent with the sharper inversion during the 1987 El Nino, The strengthening of the inversion was not caused by a local SST change. although the local SST change

  16. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, Alexey; Cane, Mark A.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Clement, Amy C.; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    1998-08-01

    Global analyses of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 1856 to 1991 are produced using three statistically based methods: optimal smoothing (OS), the Kaiman filter (KF) and optimal interpolation (OI). Each of these is accompanied by estimates of the error covariance of the analyzed fields. The spatial covariance function these methods require is estimated from the available data; the timemarching model is a first-order autoregressive model again estimated from data. The data input for the analyses are monthly anomalies from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office historical sea surface temperature data set (MOHSST5) [Parker et al., 1994] of the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) [Bottomley et al., 1990]. These analyses are compared with each other, with GOSTA, and with an analysis generated by projection (P) onto a set of empirical orthogonal functions (as in Smith et al. [1996]). In theory, the quality of the analyses should rank in the order OS, KF, OI, P, and GOSTA. It is found that the first four give comparable results in the data-rich periods (1951-1991), but at times when data is sparse the first three differ significantly from P and GOSTA. At these times the latter two often have extreme and fluctuating values, prima facie evidence of error. The statistical schemes are also verified against data not used in any of the analyses (proxy records derived from corals and air temperature records from coastal and island stations). We also present evidence that the analysis error estimates are indeed indicative of the quality of the products. At most times the OS and KF products are close to the OI product, but at times of especially poor coverage their use of information from other times is advantageous. The methods appear to reconstruct the major features of the global SST field from very sparse data. Comparison with other indications of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle show that the analyses provide usable information on

  17. Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David

    The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of

  18. Global Lake Surface Water Temperatures For Biodiversity, Limnology, Meteorology And Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merchant, Christopher J.; MacCallum, Stuart N.; Layden, Aisling; Goryl, Philippe

    2013-12-01

    A reprocessing of Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) archives has been undertaken to create global lake surface water temperature (LSWT) datasets for a range of applications. The project, funded by the European Space Agency and called “ARC-Lake”, applies optimal estimation (OE) retrievals and probabilistic cloud screening methods to provide LSWT estimates for approximately 1000 lakes, globally, from 1991 to 2012. This methodology is generic (i.e. applicable to all lakes) as variations in physical properties such as elevation, salinity, and atmospheric conditions are accounted for through the forward modelling of observed radiances. The publicly available data products from ARC-Lake have been used, and have further potential for application, in a variety of fields, including meteorology, climate, and ecology. We will provide an overview of ARC-Lake from methodology through to applications of the LSWT datasets.

  19. Inversion of gravity and bathymetry in oceanic regions for long-wavelength variations in upper mantle temperature and composition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Solomon, Sean C.; Jordan, Thomas H.

    1993-01-01

    Long-wavelength variations in geoid height, bathymetry, and SS-S travel times are all relatable to lateral variations in the characteristic temperature and bulk composition of the upper mantle. The temperature and composition are in turn relatable to mantle convection and the degree of melt extraction from the upper mantle residuum. Thus the combined inversion of the geoid or gravity field, residual bathymetry, and seismic velocity information offers the promise of resolving fundamental aspects of the pattern of mantle dynamics. The use of differential body wave travel times as a measure of seismic velocity information, in particular, permits resolution of lateral variations at scales not resolvable by conventional global or regional-scale seismic tomography with long-period surface waves. These intermediate scale lengths, well resolved in global gravity field models, are crucial for understanding the details of any chemical or physical layering in the mantle and of the characteristics of so-called 'small-scale' convection beneath oceanic lithosphere. In 1991 a three-year project to the NASA Geophysics Program was proposed to carry out a systematic inversion of long-wavelength geoid anomalies, residual bathymetric anomalies, and differential SS-S travel time delays for the lateral variation in characteristic temperature and bulk composition of the oceanic upper mantle. The project was funded as a three-year award, beginning on 1 Jan. 1992.

  20. Global Electric Circuit Diurnal Variation Derived from Storm Overflight and Satellite Optical Lightning Datasets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bateman, M. J.; Bailey, J. C.

    2011-01-01

    We have combined analyses of over 1000 high altitude aircraft observations of electrified clouds with diurnal lightning statistics from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to produce an estimate of the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. Using basic assumptions about the mean storm currents as a function of flash rate and location, and the global electric circuit, our estimate of the current in the global electric circuit matches the Carnegie curve diurnal variation to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Mean contributions to the global electric circuit from land and ocean thunderstorms are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean). Contributions to the global electric circuit from ESCs are 0.22 kA for ocean storms and 0.04 kA for land storms. Using our analysis, the mean total conduction current for the global electric circuit is 2.0 kA.

  1. A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

    2014-02-13

    Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming. PMID:24463514

  2. A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B.; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

    2014-02-01

    Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9+/-0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

  3. An improved global zenith tropospheric delay model GZTD2 considering diurnal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Yibin; Hu, Yufeng; Yu, Chen; Zhang, Bao; Guo, Jianjian

    2016-05-01

    The zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is an important atmospheric parameter in the wide application of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) technology in geoscience. Given that the temporal resolution of the current global zenith tropospheric delay model (GZTD) is only 24 h, an improved model, GZTD2, has been developed by taking the diurnal variations into consideration and modifying the model expansion function. The data set used to establish this model is the global ZTD grid data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere spanning from 2002 to 2009. We validated the proposed model with respect to ZTD grid data from GGOS Atmosphere, which was not involved in modeling, as well as International GNSS Service (IGS) tropospheric product. The obtained results of ZTD grid data show that the global average bias and root mean square (rms) for the GZTD2 model are 0.2 and 3.8 cm, respectively. The global average bias is comparable to that of the GZTD model, but the global average rms is improved by 3 mm. The bias and rms are far better than the EGNOS model and the UNB series models. The testing results from global IGS tropospheric product show the bias and rms (-0.3 and 3.9 cm) of the GZTD2 model are superior to that of GZTD (-0.3 and 4.2 cm), suggesting higher accuracy and reliability compared to the EGNOS model, as well as the UNB series models.

  4. Cultivar variation in cotton photosynthetic performance under different temperature regimes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yields are impacted by overall photosynthetic production. Factors that influence crop photosynthesis are the plants genetic makeup and the environmental conditions. This study investigated cultivar variation in photosynthesis when plants were grown in the field under...

  5. Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change.

    PubMed

    Paaijmans, Krijn P; Heinig, Rebecca L; Seliga, Rebecca A; Blanford, Justine I; Blanford, Simon; Murdock, Courtney C; Thomas, Matthew B

    2013-08-01

    Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate 'realized' thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the 'fundamental' norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing 'thermal safety margins'. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature. PMID:23630036

  6. Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Paaijmans, Krijn P; Heinig, Rebecca L; Seliga, Rebecca A; Blanford, Justine I; Blanford, Simon; Murdock, Courtney C; Thomas, Matthew B

    2013-01-01

    Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate ‘realized’ thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the ‘fundamental’ norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing ‘thermal safety margins’. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature. PMID:23630036

  7. Reconstructing last 2000 years of temperature variation from Pyrenean caves (N Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, Ana; Bartolomé, Miguel; Pérez, Carlos; Sancho, Carlos; Cacho, Isabel; Stoll, Heather; Delgado-Huertas, Antonio; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai

    2016-04-01

    The Central Pyrenees, and particularly the protected area known as Ordesa and Monte Perdido National Park, is a high-altitude karstic region rich in cavities with active drips and present precipitation of carbonates. Although not generally very abundant, there are speleothems growths in several of those cavities. We present here (1) a three-year seasonal monitoring survey to isolate the environmental parameters influencing isotopic composition of farmed carbonate and (2) the last 2000 years isotopic record resulting from compiling seven stalagmites from three different caves. In temperate regions such as the NE Iberian Peninsula is difficult to discern the influences on δ18O variation in speleothems since temperature, amount of precipitation or even source effect are usually acting simultaneously. Main results after three years monitoring period indicate a strong dependence on air temperature through its influence on rainfall δ18O, although a small amount effect is not discarded. The good overlapping during the observational period of δ18O from actively growing modern stalagmites and air temperature in the area supports this dependence and provides a reliable proxy for the temperature evolution along last millennia. The stalagmites belong to three different caves (Seso, Gloces and B-1 caves) but still present a very coherent isotopic signal allowing us to discard local effects (diagenetic imprint, non-equilibrium fractionation) and to produce a stacked record with decadal resolution. Interpreting this signal as regional temperature variation divides the temporal sequence in five main periods, in consonance with historical stages. Thus, a continuous decrease in temperature characterized the end of the Roman period (0-500 AD). Lower temperatures are dominant during "Dark Ages" (500-1000 AD) that increase during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1000-1400 AD). Following this warm period, the cold signal during the Little Ice Age is very well replicated in several

  8. Analysing the behaviour of LED module driver under variation of ambient temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bürger, A.; Sanchez, O.

    2015-01-01

    Temperature variations affect the operation of electronic devices. In this article we analyze effects that temperature variation entails a LED lamp commonly used in Brazil. We simulated temperature variations through the use of an oven of 1 m3. Then obtained emission spectrum in the visible, CRI, Correlated Color Temperature, harmonic distortion on the current, supply current, and CIE Chromatic Coordinates x and y in two situations: first with the LED module and controller inside the oven and second with the controller outside. The temperature was monitored in different part of this set. Interesting correlations for specifiers and developers were found.

  9. Sub-daily resolution of earth rotation variations with Global Positioning System measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lichten, Stephen M.; Marcus, Steven L.; Dickey, Jean O.

    1992-01-01

    Data from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking experiment have been used to determine variations in earth rotation (UT1-UTC) over a time period of three weeks. Kalman filtering and smoothing enabled changes in UT1-UTC over intervals of 2 to 24 hrs to be detected with the GPS data. Internal consistency checks and comparisons with other solutions from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and satellite laser ranging (SLR) indicate that the GPS UT1-UTC estimates are accurate to about 2 cm. Comparison of GPS-estimated variations in UT1-UTC with 2-hr time resolution over 4 days with predicted variations computed from diurnal and semidiurnal oceanic tidal contributions strongly suggests that the observed periodic sub-daily variations of about 0.1 msec are largely of tidal origin.

  10. Long-Range Correlations of Global Sea Surface Temperature.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Lei; Zhao, Xia; Wang, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Scaling behaviors of the global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) derived from 1870-2009 average monthly data sets of Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) are investigated employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The global SST fluctuations are found to be strong positively long-range correlated at all pertinent time-intervals. The value of scaling exponent is larger in the tropics than those in the intermediate latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. DFA leads to the scaling exponent α = 0.87 over the globe (60°S~60°N), northern hemisphere (0°N~60°N), and southern hemisphere (0°S~60°S), α = 0.84 over the intermediate latitude of southern hemisphere (30°S~60°S), α = 0.81 over the intermediate latitude of northern hemisphere (30°N~60°N) and α = 0.90 over the tropics 30°S~30°N [fluctuation F(s) ~ sα], which the fluctuations of monthly SST anomaly display long-term correlated behaviors. Furthermore, the larger the standard deviation is, the smaller long-range correlations (LRCs) of SST in the corresponding regions, especially in three distinct upwelling areas. After the standard deviation is taken into account, an index χ = α * σ is introduced to obtain the spatial distributions of χ. There exists an obvious change of global SST in central east and northern Pacific and the northwest Atlantic. This may be as a clue on predictability of climate and ocean variabilities. PMID:27100397

  11. Long-Range Correlations of Global Sea Surface Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Lei; Zhao, Xia; Wang, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Scaling behaviors of the global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) derived from 1870–2009 average monthly data sets of Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) are investigated employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The global SST fluctuations are found to be strong positively long-range correlated at all pertinent time-intervals. The value of scaling exponent is larger in the tropics than those in the intermediate latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. DFA leads to the scaling exponent α = 0.87 over the globe (60°S~60°N), northern hemisphere (0°N~60°N), and southern hemisphere (0°S~60°S), α = 0.84 over the intermediate latitude of southern hemisphere (30°S~60°S), α = 0.81 over the intermediate latitude of northern hemisphere (30°N~60°N) and α = 0.90 over the tropics 30°S~30°N [fluctuation F(s) ~ sα], which the fluctuations of monthly SST anomaly display long-term correlated behaviors. Furthermore, the larger the standard deviation is, the smaller long-range correlations (LRCs) of SST in the corresponding regions, especially in three distinct upwelling areas. After the standard deviation is taken into account, an index χ = α * σ is introduced to obtain the spatial distributions of χ. There exists an obvious change of global SST in central east and northern Pacific and the northwest Atlantic. This may be as a clue on predictability of climate and ocean variabilities. PMID:27100397

  12. A high-resolution global sea surface temperature climatology

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, R.W.; Smith, T.M.

    1995-06-01

    In response to the development of a new higher-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), a new monthly 1{degrees} global sea surface temperature climatology was constructed from two intermediate climatologies: the 2{degrees} SST climatology used a 30-yr 1950-1979 base period between roughly 40{degrees}S and 60{degrees}N based on in situ (ship and buoy) SST data supplemented by four years (1982-1985) of satellite SST retrievals, and sea-ice coverage data over a 12-yr period (1982-1993). The final climatology was combined from these two products so that a 1{degrees} resolution was maintained and the base period was adjusted to the 1950-1979 period wherever possible (approximately between 40{degrees}S and 60{degrees}N). Compared to the 2{degrees} climatology, the 1{degrees} climatology resolves equatorial upwelling and fronts much better. This leads to a better matching of the scales of the new analysis and climatology. In addition, because the magnitudes of large-scale features are consistently maintained in both the older 2{degrees} and the new 1{degrees} climatologies, climate monitoring of large-scale anomalies will be minimally affected by the analysis change. The use of 12 years of satellite SST retrievals makes this new climatology useful for many additional purposes because its effective resolution actually approaches 1{degrees} everywhere over the global ocean and because the mean SST values are more accurate south of 40{degrees}S than climatologies without these data. 12 refs., 16 figs.

  13. A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

    PubMed Central

    Mayhew, Peter J; Jenkins, Gareth B; Benton, Timothy G

    2007-01-01

    The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm ‘greenhouse’ phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming. PMID:17956842

  14. Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackerras, David; Darveniza, Mat; Orville, Richard E.; Williams, Earle R.; Goodman, Steven J.

    1999-01-01

    A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approximately equals 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approximately equals 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels. The comparisons were made for the northern winter (Nov.-Feb.), the equinox (Mar., Apr., Sept., Oct.), the northern summer (May-Aug.), and the whole year.

  15. Long-range persistence in the global mean surface temperature and the global warming "time bomb"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K.

    2012-04-01

    Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Maximum Likelihood Estimations (MLE) based on instrumental data over the last 160 years indicate that there is Long-Range Persistence (LRP) in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) on time scales of months to decades. The persistence is much higher in sea surface temperature than in land temperatures. Power spectral analysis of multi-model, multi-ensemble runs of global climate models indicate further that this persistence may extend to centennial and maybe even millennial time-scales. We also support these conclusions by wavelet variogram analysis, DFA, and MLE of Northern hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions over the last two millennia. These analyses indicate that the GMST is a strongly persistent noise with Hurst exponent H>0.9 on time scales from decades up to at least 500 years. We show that such LRP can be very important for long-term climate prediction and for the establishment of a "time bomb" in the climate system due to a growing energy imbalance caused by the slow relaxation to radiative equilibrium under rising anthropogenic forcing. We do this by the construction of a multi-parameter dynamic-stochastic model for the GMST response to deterministic and stochastic forcing, where LRP is represented by a power-law response function. Reconstructed data for total forcing and GMST over the last millennium are used with this model to estimate trend coefficients and Hurst exponent for the GMST on multi-century time scale by means of MLE. Ensembles of solutions generated from the stochastic model also allow us to estimate confidence intervals for these estimates.

  16. Global estimates of water-vapor-weighted mean temperature of the atmosphere for GPS applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Dai, Aiguo

    2005-11-01

    Water-vapor-weighted atmospheric mean temperature, Tm, is a key parameter in the retrieval of atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of zenith path delay (ZPD), as the accuracy of the GPS-derived PW is proportional to the accuracy of Tm. We compare and analyze global estimates of Tm from three different data sets from 1997 to 2002: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, and the newly released Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) data set. Temperature and humidity profiles from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses produce reasonable Tm estimates compared with those from the IGRA soundings. The ERA-40, however, is a better option for global Tm estimation because of its better performance and its higher spatial resolution. Tm is found to increase from below 255 K in polar regions to 295-300 K in the tropics, with small longitudinal variations. Tm has an annual range of ˜2-4 K in the tropics and 20-35 K over much of Eurasia and northern North America. The day-to-day Tm variations are 1-3 K over most low latitudes and 4-7 K (2-4 K) in winter (summer) Northern Hemispheric land areas. Diurnal variations of Tm are generally small, with mean-to-peak amplitudes less than 0.5 K over most oceans and 0.5-1.5 K over most land areas and a local time of maximum around 16-20 LST. The commonly used Tm-Ts relationship from Bevis et al. (1992) is evaluated using the ERA-40 data. Tm derived from this relationship (referred to as Tmb) has a cold bias in the tropics and subtropics (-1 ˜ -6 K, largest in marine stratiform cloud regions) and a warm bias in the middle and high latitudes (2-5 K, largest over mountain regions). The random error in Tmb is much smaller than the bias. A serious problem in Tmb is its erroneous large diurnal cycle owing to

  17. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  18. Validation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System based on measurements of soil temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lei; Li, Xiuping; Chen, Yingying; Yang, Kun; Chen, Deliang

    2016-04-01

    Soil temperature is a key parameter in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. It plays an important role in the land surface water and energy cycles, and has a major influence on vegetation growth and other hydrological aspects. We evaluated the accuracy of the soil temperature profiles from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) using nine observational networks across the world and aimed to find a reliable global soil temperature profile dataset for future hydrological and ecological studies. In general, the soil temperature profile data generated by the Noah model driven by the GLDAS forcing data (GLDAS_Noah10 and GLDAS_Noah10_v2) were found to have high skills in terms of daily, monthly, and mean seasonal variations, indicated by smaller bias and root-mean-square-error (RMSE) (both < 3 °C) and correlation coefficients larger than 0.90. Conversely, the Community Land Model (CLM) results (GLDAS_CLM10) generally showed larger bias and RMSE (both > 4°C). Further analysis showed that the overestimation by GLDAS_CLM10 was mainly caused by overestimation of the ground heat flux, determined by the thermal conductivity parameterization scheme, whereas the underestimation by GLDAS_Noah10 was due to underestimation of downward longwave radiation from the forcing data. Thus, more accurate forcing data should be required for the Noah model and an improved thermal parameterization scheme should be developed for the CLM. These approaches will improve the accuracy of simulated soil temperatures. To our knowledge, it is the first study to evaluate the GLDAS soil temperatures with comprehensive in situ observations across the world, and has a potential to facilitate an overall improvement of the GLDAS products (not only soil temperatures but also the related energy and water fluxes) as well as a refinement of the land surface parameterization used in GLDAS.

  19. Variation in Maltese English: The Interplay of the Local and the Global in an Emerging Postcolonial Variety

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnici, Lisa Marie

    2010-01-01

    In our current era of increased globalization, constraints on language variation in postcolonial English varieties are multifaceted. Local and global language ideologies collide and multiple sources of influence converge in present-day patterns of linguistic variation in emerging English varieties. While research into the structure and…

  20. Turbine vane coolant flow variations and calculated effects on metal temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yeh, F. C.; Meitner, P. L.; Russell, L. M.

    1975-01-01

    Seventy-two air-cooled turbine vanes were tested to determine coolant flow variations among the vanes. Calculations were made to estimate the effect of measured coolant flow variations on local vane metal temperatures. The calculations were based on the following assumed operating conditions: turbine inlet temperature, 1700 K (2600 F); turbine inlet pressure, 31 N/sq cm (45 psia); coolant inlet temperature, 811 K (1000 F); and total coolant to gas flow ratio, 0.065. Variations of total coolant flow were not large (about 10 percent from the arithmetic mean) for all 72 vanes, but variations in local coolant flows were large. The local coolant flow variations ranged from 8 to 75 percent, and calculated metal temperature variations ranged from 8 to 60 K (15 to 180 F).

  1. Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2012-10-15

    Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.

  2. An Empirical Benchmark for Decadal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, Matthew

    2013-04-01

    The suitability of an empirical multivariate red noise (AR1) model, or linear inverse model (LIM), as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast skill is demonstrated. Constructed from the observed simultaneous and one-year lag covariability statistics of annually-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and surface (2m) land temperature global anomalies during 1901-2009, the LIM has hindcast skill for leads 2-5 and 6-9 years comparable to and sometimes even better than skill of the CMIP5 model hindcasts initialized annually over the period 1960-2000, and has skill far better than damped persistence (e.g., a local univariate AR1 process). Over the entire post-1901 record, the LIM skill pattern is similar but has reduced amplitude. Pronounced similarity in geographical variations of skill between LIM and CMIP5 hindcasts suggests similarity in their sources of skill as well, supporting additional evaluation of LIM predictability. For forecast leads above 1-2 years, LIM skill almost entirely results from three non-orthogonal patterns, one corresponding to the secular trend and two more, each with about ten year decorrelation time scales but no trend, that represent most of the predictable portions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices, respectively. As found in previous studies, the AMO-related pattern also contributes to multidecadal variations in global mean temperature, and the PDO-related pattern has maximum amplitude in the west Pacific and represents the residual after both interannual and decadal ENSO variability are removed from the PDO time series. These results suggest that current coupled model decadal forecasts may not yet have much skill beyond that captured by multivariate red noise.

  3. Modeling fish community dynamics in Florida Everglades: Role of temperature variation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Rabai'ah, H. A.; Koh, H. L.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Lee, Hooi-Ling

    2002-01-01

    The model shows that the temperature dependent starvation mortality is an important factor that influences fish population densities. It also shows high fish population densities at some temperature ranges when this consumption need is minimum. Several sensitivity analyses involving variations in temperature terms, food resources and water levels are conducted to ascertain the relative importance of temperature dependence terms.

  4. Global interoperability in the oceanographic sea surface temperature community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, E. M.; Casey, K. S.; Vazquez, J.; Habermann, T.; Bingham, A.; Thompson, C. K.; Donlon, C. J.

    2010-12-01

    The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Project is an international consortium of data providers coordinated across four continents providing sea surface temperature (SST) products from nearly every SST observing satellite in common data and metadata formats since 2005. It currently provides Level 2P data for 13 unique sensors with over 40 combined Level 2, 3 and 4 products. The entire project produces on the order of 35 Gbytes/day and distributes over 3 Tbytes/ month from a variety of access nodes. Although these combined data throughputs are modest by the standards of future NASA Decadal missions, GHRSST has achieved a large measure of success by implementing a regional/global task sharing framework built on self describing data formats, standardized metadata content and data access protocols early in its mission. We will present some of these implementation strategies, lessons learned and history with regard to standardizing products while reducing barriers to interoperability that the project undertook leading up to the present. We will also discuss recent revisions of data and metadata product specifications, and new tools and services that the project will implement in the near future to further reduce barriers, and improve discovery, metadata and access.

  5. Variational Assimilation of Global Microwave Rainfall Retrievals: Physical and Dynamical Impact on GEOS Analyses and Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, Xin; Zhang, Sara Q.; Hou, Arthur Y.

    2006-01-01

    Global microwave rainfall retrievals from a 5-satellite constellation, including TMI from TRMM, SSWI from DMSP F13, F14 and F15, and AMSR-E from EOS-AQUA, are assimilated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) using a 1-D variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm. The physical and dynamical impact of rainfall assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts is examined at various temporal and spatial scales. This study demonstrates that the 1-D VCA algorithm, which was originally developed and evaluated for rainfall assimilations over tropical oceans, can effectively assimilate satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and improve GEOS analyses over both the Tropics and the extratropics where the atmospheric processes are dominated by different large-scale dynamics and moist physics, and also over the land, where rainfall estimates from passive microwave radiometers are believed to be less accurate. Results show that rainfall assimilation renders the GEOS analysis physically and dynamically more consistent with the observed precipitation at the monthly-mean and 6-hour time scales. Over regions where the model precipitation tends to misbehave in distinctly different rainy regimes, the 1-D VCA algorithm, by compensating for errors in the model s moist time-tendency in a 6-h analysis window, is able to bring the rainfall analysis closer to the observed. The radiation and cloud fields also tend to be in better agreement with independent satellite observations in the rainfall-assimilation m especially over regions where rainfall analyses indicate large improvements. Assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for a midlatitude frontal system clearly indicates that the GEOS analysis is improved through changes in the thermodynamic and dynamic fields that respond to the rainfall assimilation. The synoptic structures of temperature, moisture, winds, divergence, and vertical motion, as well as vorticity are more

  6. Variation of Azeotropic Composition and Temperature with Pressure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibbard, H. Frank; Emptage, Michael R.

    1975-01-01

    Describes an undergraduate physical chemistry experiment in which an azeotropic mixture is studied using the vapor pressures of the components as functions of temperature and the azeotropic composition and temperature at one pressure. Discusses in detail the mathematical treatment of obtained thermodynamic data. (MLH)

  7. Antarctic Sea ice variations and seasonal air temperature relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, John W.; Walsh, John E.; Zwally, H. J.

    1991-01-01

    Data through 1987 are used to determine the regional and seasonal dependencies of recent trends of Antarctic temperature and sea ice. Lead-lag relationships involving regional sea ice and air temperature are systematically evaluated, with an eye toward the ice-temperature feedbacks that may influence climatic change. Over the 1958-1087 period the temperature trends are positive in all seasons. For the 15 years (l973-l987) for which ice data are available, the trends are predominantly positive only in winter and summer, and are most strongly positive over the Antarctic Peninsula. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature for this latter period is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Lag correlations between seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures. The implication is that summer temperatures predispose the near-surface waters to above-or below-normal ice coverage in the following fall and winter.

  8. Seasonal Temperature Variations in Saturn's Stratosphere: Radiative Seasonal Model vs. Observations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greathouse, Thomas; Moses, Julianne; Fletcher, Leigh; Orton, Glenn; Guerlet, Sandrine

    2010-05-01

    , meridional and temporal variations of Saturn's stratospheric temperatures. Then, using the inferred temperatures, we model the observations of the different hydrocarbons to retrieve their vertical, meridional, and temporal abundance variations (Greathouse et al., 2005; Greathouse et al., 2006). Similar to the ground based observations, Cassini/CIRS observations (2004-2009) have been used to infer the vertical, meridional, and temporal variations of Saturn's stratospheric temperature and hydrocarbon abundances (Flasar et al., 2005; Fletcher et al., 2008; Fletcher et al., 2007; Fouchet et al., 2008; Guerlet et al., 2009; Howett et al., 2007). Ground based observers are unable to observe through Saturn's rings or behind the planet as viewed from the Earth. On the other hand, Cassini has no such restriction and thus can measure the global thermal and chemical state of Saturn for the duration of the mission. An important goal is to bring the ground-based and Cassini observations into agreement so that when the Cassini mission ends, continued ground-based observations can be used to constrain seasonal and dynamic changes on Saturn thereafter. This work was funded by NASA PATM grant NNX08AL95G and NASA PAST grant NNX08AW33G.

  9. The influence of ocean surface temperature gradient and continentality on the Walker circulation. II - Prescribed global changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stone, P. H.; Chervin, R. M.

    1984-01-01

    The series of experiments presently used to investigate the mechanisms responsible for forcing the global Walker circulation features worldwide changes in ocean surface temperatures (OSTs), topography, and/or continents. The primary factor affecting circulation is noted to be the global distribution of continents and oceans; while OST gradients are also important, topography emerges as comparatively unimportant. Continentality and OST gradients force the model atmosphere through the introduction of zonal variations in surface heating. The vertical motions to which they give rise yield moisture convergence and condensation variations which reinforce vertical motions. The forcing by OST gradients is partly nonlocal, and the atmospheric response is effected by continentality. In all cases, vertical motion zonal variations correlate with precipitation.

  10. Influence of tropical wind on global temperature from months to decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saenko, Oleg A.; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C.; Lee, Warren G.; England, Matthew H.

    2016-01-01

    Using an Earth System Model and observations we analyze the sequence of events connecting episodes of trade wind strengthening (or weakening) to global mean surface temperature (GMST) cooling (or warming), with tropical ocean wave dynamics partially setting the time scale. In this sequence tropical west Pacific wind stress signals lead equatorial east Pacific thermocline depth signals which lead tropical east Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signals which lead GMST signals. Using the anthropogenic, natural and tropical wind signals extracted from our simulations in a multivariate linear regression with observed GMST makes clear the balance that exists between anthropogenic warming and tropical wind-induced cooling during the recent warming slowdown, and between volcanic cooling and tropical wind-induced warming during the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions. Finally, we find an anticorrelation between global-mean temperatures in the near-surface (upper ˜ 100 m) and subsurface (˜ 100-300 m) ocean layers, linked to wind-driven interannual to decadal variations in the strength of the subtropical cell overturning in the upper Pacific Ocean.