Science.gov

Sample records for grim business-as-usual forecast

  1. Where does biodiversity go from here? A grim business-as-usual forecast and a hopeful portfolio of partial solutions

    PubMed Central

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Pringle, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    The threats to the future of biodiversity are many and well known. They include habitat conversion, environmental toxification, climate change, and direct exploitation of wildlife, among others. Moreover, the projected addition of 2.6 billion people by mid-century will almost certainly have a greater environmental impact than that of the last 2.6 billion. Collectively, these trends portend a grim future for biodiversity under a business-as-usual scenario. These threats and their interactions are formidable, but we review seven strategies that, if implemented soundly and scaled up dramatically, would preserve a substantial portion of global biodiversity. These are actions to stabilize the human population and reduce its material consumption, the deployment of endowment funds and other strategies to ensure the efficacy and permanence of conservation areas, steps to make human-dominated landscapes hospitable to biodiversity, measures to account for the economic costs of habitat degradation, the ecological reclamation of degraded lands and repatriation of extirpated species, the education and empowerment of people in the rural tropics, and the fundamental transformation of human attitudes about nature. Like the carbon “stabilization wedges” outlined by Pacala and Socolow [Pacala S, Socolow R (2004) Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. Science 305:968–972] (1), the science and technologies needed to effect this vision already exist. The remaining challenges are largely social, political, and economic. Although academic conservation biology still has an important role to play in developing technical tools and knowledge, success at this juncture hinges more on a massive mobilization of effort to do things that have traditionally been outside the scope of the discipline. PMID:18695214

  2. Colloquium paper: where does biodiversity go from here? A grim business-as-usual forecast and a hopeful portfolio of partial solutions.

    PubMed

    Ehrlich, Paul R; Pringle, Robert M

    2008-08-12

    The threats to the future of biodiversity are many and well known. They include habitat conversion, environmental toxification, climate change, and direct exploitation of wildlife, among others. Moreover, the projected addition of 2.6 billion people by mid-century will almost certainly have a greater environmental impact than that of the last 2.6 billion. Collectively, these trends portend a grim future for biodiversity under a business-as-usual scenario. These threats and their interactions are formidable, but we review seven strategies that, if implemented soundly and scaled up dramatically, would preserve a substantial portion of global biodiversity. These are actions to stabilize the human population and reduce its material consumption, the deployment of endowment funds and other strategies to ensure the efficacy and permanence of conservation areas, steps to make human-dominated landscapes hospitable to biodiversity, measures to account for the economic costs of habitat degradation, the ecological reclamation of degraded lands and repatriation of extirpated species, the education and empowerment of people in the rural tropics, and the fundamental transformation of human attitudes about nature. Like the carbon "stabilization wedges" outlined by Pacala and Socolow [Pacala S, Socolow R (2004) Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. Science 305:968-972] (1), the science and technologies needed to effect this vision already exist. The remaining challenges are largely social, political, and economic. Although academic conservation biology still has an important role to play in developing technical tools and knowledge, success at this juncture hinges more on a massive mobilization of effort to do things that have traditionally been outside the scope of the discipline. PMID:18695214

  3. The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions - historical trends and near-term forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, A.; Hewitt, C. N.

    2014-09-01

    We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future "business as usual" energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr-1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr-1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.

  4. Geoengineering, Climate Harm, and Business as Usual

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jankunis, F. J.; Peacock, K.

    2014-12-01

    We define geoengineering (GE) as the intentional use of technology to change the planet's climate. Many people believe GE is different in kind rather than degree from any other organized activity in human history. In fact, humans caused changes in the planet's climate long before the industrial age, and all organisms engineer their environments directly or indirectly. The relevant difference between this cumulative and generally inadvertent activity and GE is the presence of intention. Now that science has revealed the extent to which humans can change the climate, however, even the continuance of Business as Usual (BAU) is, in effect, a form of intentional GE, albeit one that will cause significant climate harm, defined as effects such as sea level rise that will impact human well-being. But as with all forms of engineering, the devil is in the details: what forms of GE should be tried first? Some methods, such as large-scale afforestation, are low risk but have long-term payoffs; others, such as aerosol injection into the stratosphere, could help buy time in a warming crisis but have unknown side-effects and little long-term future. Climate change is a world-wide, inter-generational tragedy of the commons. Rational choice theory, the spatial and temporal extension of the problem, poorly fitted moral frameworks, and political maneuvering are all factors that inhibit solutions to the climate tragedy of the commons. The longer that such factors are allowed to dominate decision-making (or the lack thereof) the more likely it is that humanity will be forced to resort to riskier and more drastic forms of GE. We argue that this fact brings an additional measure of urgency to the search for ways to engineer the climate differently so as to avoid climate harm in the most lasting and least risky way.

  5. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  6. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  7. Effects of business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Tost, H.; Dentener, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy and food consumption and consequent pollution sources with the current technologies ("business as usual"). This scenario is chosen to show the effects of not implementing legislation to prevent additional climate change and growing air pollution, other than what is in place for the base year 2005, representing a pessimistic (but feasible) future. By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecisions inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (~100 km) and simplified bottom-up emission input. To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI), suited for global model output, has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Middle East represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations, although a general increase of MPIs is observed in all populated regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels are expected to increase strongly. The per capita MPI (PCMPI), which combines demographic and pollutants concentrations projections, shows that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. Following the business as usual scenario, it is projected that air quality for the global average

  8. Effects of business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Tost, H.; Dentener, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-08-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy and food consumption and consequent pollution sources with the current technologies ("business as usual"). This scenario is chosen to show the effects of not implementing legislation to prevent additional climate change and growing air pollution, other than what is in place for the base year 2005, representing a pessimistic (but plausible) future. By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecisions inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (~100 km) and simplified bottom-up emission input. To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI), suited for global model output, has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Middle East represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations, while a general increase of MPIs is observed in all populated regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Persian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels are expected to increase strongly. The population weighted MPI (PW-MPI), which combines demographic and pollutant concentration projections, shows that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. Following this business as usual scenario, it is projected that air quality for the global

  9. Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD.

    PubMed

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios. PMID:25588807

  10. Vietnam's Forest Transition in Retrospect: Demonstrating Weaknesses in Business-as-Usual Scenarios for REDD+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  11. Business As Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sch Libr J, 1970

    1970-01-01

    Despite the conference theme, the youth division seldom rose above the trite and the obvious" in discussing their resources for human understanding. A report on the Children's Service Division (CSD), Young Adults Service Division (YASD) and other meetings. (Author)

  12. Business as Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Even in an industry where rapid change is the status quo, it takes a special kind of company to handle the training challenges posed by a major corporate acquisition and massive product rollout. No one has ever accused Verizon of thinking small-scale when it comes to training initiatives, but over the last year, the telecommunications giant…

  13. Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

  14. Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

    PubMed

    Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID

  15. Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual

    PubMed Central

    Thorne, James H.; Santos, Maria J.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H.

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID

  16. Effects of "Reduced" and "Business-As-Usual" CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae).

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios. PMID:26121163

  17. Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmittner, Andreas; Oschlies, Andreas; Matthews, H. Damon; Galbraith, Eric D.

    2008-03-01

    A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ˜1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ˜10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial

  18. Antibiotic research and development: business as usual?

    PubMed

    Harbarth, S; Theuretzbacher, U; Hackett, J

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of antibiotic resistance is tremendous and, without new anti-infective strategies, will continue to increase in the coming decades. Despite the growing need for new antibiotics, few pharmaceutical companies today retain active antibacterial drug discovery programmes. One reason is that it is scientifically challenging to discover new antibiotics that are active against the antibiotic-resistant bacteria of current clinical concern. However, the main hurdle is diminishing economic incentives. Increased global calls to minimize the overuse of antibiotics, the cost of meeting regulatory requirements and the low prices of currently marketed antibiotics are strong deterrents to antibacterial drug development programmes. New economic models that create incentives for the discovery of new antibiotics and yet reconcile these incentives with responsible antibiotic use are long overdue. DRIVE-AB is a €9.4 million public-private consortium, funded by the EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, that aims to define a standard for the responsible use of antibiotics and to develop, test and recommend new economic models to incentivize investment in producing new anti-infective agents. PMID:25673635

  19. Teaching across Borders: Business as Usual?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Bobbe McGhie

    2011-01-01

    The quest to comprehend how cultural differences can impact learning is one of those intriguing challenges that continue to beguile some scholars and educational leaders even at a time that is characterized as globalized. This dissertation is a qualitative case study about teaching to culturally diverse populations and is primarily based on the…

  20. The Escalation of Business as Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuchman, Gaye

    2011-01-01

    An academic plan is a business plan disguised in the regalia donned for significant public ceremonies--black cap and gown, colorful hood, and, of course, gold tassel. Several years ago, the University of Connecticut started to plan for the economic disaster that was at the time so obviously in the future of higher education institutions. A formal…

  1. Business as Usual? It's Just Not an Option

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blewitt, John

    2010-01-01

    There is no doubt that in order to address the serious challenges arising from anthropogenic--or human-produced--climate change, Britain, along with the rest of the world, needs to adopt policies and develop skills that will create a low-carbon economy with a highly effective use of renewable and natural resources. People need to create the…

  2. Business as Usual: Amazon.com and the Academic Library

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Ullen, Mary K.; Germain, Carol Anne

    2002-01-01

    In 1999, Steve Coffman proposed that libraries form a single interlibrary loan based entity patterned after Amazon.com. This study examined the suitability of Amazon.com's Web interface and record enhancements for academic libraries. Amazon.com could not deliver circulating monographs in the University at Albany Libraries' collection quickly…

  3. Business as Usual? Not for These Middle-Grades Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Heather; Wiest, Lynda

    2011-01-01

    A perpetual dilemma of schooling is how to help students develop skills needed for everyday life, including the work world. Quantitative literacy, also called numeracy, involves an ability to apply essential mathematics skills to authentic or near-authentic tasks. Carefully planned classroom activities can help students develop these important…

  4. The Learning Outcomes Project: Not Business as Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heiland, Linda; Switzer-Kemper, Cathy

    2007-01-01

    Central Arizona College successfully defined student learning outcomes and is building a culture of evidence to support the Learning Paradigm. Recent data indicate great strides in the improvement of student learning. Qualitative research produced meaningful comparisons of leadership and faculty perceptions of the process of developing student…

  5. Resume Preferences: Is It Really "Business as Usual"?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Craig M.; Young, Sarah J.

    2005-01-01

    This study examines the resume preferences of 523 recreation and leisure service professionals who interview and hire entry-level recreation professionals. Findings from this study support the fact that different occupations and disciplines require different approaches on how resume content information is presented. In the recreation and leisure…

  6. Insurance benefits under the ADA: Discrimination or business as usual?

    SciTech Connect

    McFadden, M.E.

    1993-12-31

    In December 1987, John McGann discovered he had AIDS. In July 1988, his employer altered his health insurance policy by reducing lifetime coverage for AIDS to $5,000, while maintaining the million-dollar limit for all other health conditions. The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld the employer`s right to make that change. The Supreme Court denied certiori. Public outcry was immediate and voluminous. The Solicitor General argued that the new Americans with Disabilities Act would save future John McGanns from the same treatment, but the validity of this optimistic prediction is yet to be determined. The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) is landmark legislation that bars discrimination against the disabled in all aspects of employment, public services, and accommodations. The Act broadly defines disability to include illnesses such as AIDS and cancer, as well as limitations on mobility, vision, and hearing. The ADA indisputably creates a private cause of action for discrimination on the basis of disability. However, depending on the standard of review chosen by the federal courts, this cause of action may or may not provide much protection to those claiming discrimination on the basis of disability in employee benefits and insurance. This article discusses the ADA`s coverage of insurance and benefits in light of the possible standards courts might use to evaluate actions of parties in suits alleging discrimination in these areas and applies those standards of review to the facts of the McGann case. 146 refs.

  7. The Holocaust and Business as Usual: Congressional Source Materials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosenberg, Daniel

    1998-01-01

    Presents resources for Holocaust reference from proceedings and reports of the Subcommittee on War Mobilization of the Committee on Military Affairs and the Special Committee Investigating the National Defense Program that investigated American and other Western corporate ties with Germany are located in leading libraries. Careful analysis by…

  8. Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saltelli, Andrea; D'Hombres, Beatrice; Jesinghaus, Jochen; Manca, Anna Rita; Mascherini, Massimiliano; Nardo, Michela; Saisana, Michaela

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks at the role of "statistics-based knowledge" in the making of EU policy. We highlight "shortcomings" in the use of statistical indicators made in the course of the Lisbon strategy, ended in 2010. In our opinion the shortcomings are: (i) The paradox of the "coexistence" within the same European Commission of "two holistic…

  9. Business as Usual: Sex Stereotyping in Business Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Project on Sex Stereotyping in Education, Red Bank, NJ.

    The module described in this document is part of a series of instructional modules on sex-role stereotyping in education. This document (including all but the cassette tape) is the module that explores the myths and stereotypes that have limited women in the world of work. The material provides suggestions for helping students expand occupational…

  10. Business as usual: heroin distribution in the United States.

    PubMed

    McBride, R B

    1984-01-01

    This article criticizes the predominant analysis of heroin use as a social aberration and argues instead that the normal structure and functioning of U.S. capitalism generate both the market for the drug and the industry which supplies it. The structure of the distribution industry is much like those for comparable legal goods, but with distinctive features which provide reduced risk for dealers and long-term stability for the industry as a whole. The expansionary dynamic of the industry and the key role of syndicates in it are analyzed. The heroin industry is deeply integrated into the economy, and far-reaching social and economic change will be necessary if heroin use is to be significantly reduced. PMID:6500783

  11. Establishing Wraparound Fidelity: Not Business as Usual. Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malysiak, Rosalyn; Duchnowski, Albert J.; Dollard, Norin; Slewczkowski, Robert; Black, Marcia; Greeson, Michael

    Three summaries of papers presented in a symposium examine issues in the wraparound model of providing case management and mental health services to children and adolescents with emotional/behavioral disorders. The papers describe 30 months of participatory program evaluation and simultaneous program development between the University of South…

  12. Working With Suicidal Clients: "Not" Business as Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Thomas E.; Goldston, David B.

    2012-01-01

    In this introduction to a special series of articles on working with suicidal clients, we note that much of the recent growth in theory and research pertaining to suicidal individuals has been contributed by cognitive-behavioral theorists and researchers. This work has established that suicidal people manifest important cognitive vulnerabilities…

  13. Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs): Double Fourier Series (DFS) Dynamical Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koo, M.; Hong, S.

    2013-12-01

    A multi-scale atmospheric/oceanic model system with unified physics, the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been created for use in numerical weather prediction, seasonal simulations, and climate research projects, from global to regional scales. It includes not only the model code, but also the test cases and scripts. The model system is developed and practiced by taking advantage of both operational and research applications. We outlines the history of GRIMs, its current applications, and plans for future development, providing a summary useful to present and future users. In addition to the traditional spherical harmonics (SPH) dynamical core, a new spectral method with a double Fourier series (DFS) is available in the GRIMs (Table 1). The new DFS dynamical core with full physics is evaluated against the SPH dynamical core in terms of short-range forecast capability for a heavy rainfall event and seasonal simulation framework. Comparison of the two dynamical cores demonstrates that the new DFS dynamical core exhibits performance comparable to the SPH in terms of simulated climatology accuracy and the forecast of a heavy rainfall event. Most importantly, the DFS algorithm guarantees improved computational efficiency in the cluster computer as the model resolution increases, which is consistent with theoretical values computed from the dry primitive equation model framework of Cheong (Fig. 1). The current study shows that, at higher resolutions, the DFS approach can be a competitive dynamical core because the DFS algorithm provides the advantages of both the spectral method for high numerical accuracy and the grid-point method for high performance computing in the aspect of computational cost. GRIMs dynamical cores

  14. Grim19 Attenuates DSS Induced Colitis in an Animal Model

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jae-kyung; Lee, Seung Hoon; Lee, Seon-Young; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Kwon, Jeong-Eun; Seo, Hyeon-Beom; Lee, Han Hee; Lee, Bo-In; Park, Sung-Hwan; Cho, Mi-La

    2016-01-01

    DSS induced colitis is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract, which destabilizes the gut and induces an uncontrolled immune response. Although DSS induced colitis is generally thought to develop as a result of an abnormally active intestinal immune system, its pathogenesis remains unclear. Gene associated with retinoid interferon induced mortality (Grim) 19 is an endogenous specific inhibitor of STAT3, which regulates the expression of proinflammatory cytokines. In this study, we investigated the influence of GRIM19 in a DSS induced colitis mouse model. We hypothesized that Grim19 would ameliorate DSS induced colitis by altering STAT3 activity and intestinal inflammation. Grim19 ameliorated DSS induced colitis severity and protected intestinal tissue. The expression of STAT3 and proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β and TNF-α in colon and lymph nodes was decreased significantly by Grim19. Moreover, DSS induced colitis progression in a Grim19 transgenic mouse line was inhibited in association with a reduction in STAT3 and IL-17 expression. These results suggest that Grim19 attenuates DSS induced colitis by suppressing the excessive inflammatory response mediated by STAT3 activation. PMID:27258062

  15. Cytokine-induced tumor suppressors: a GRIM story

    PubMed Central

    Kalvakolanu, Dhan V; Nallar, Shreeram C; Kalakonda, Sudhakar

    2010-01-01

    Cytokines belonging to the IFN family are potent growth suppressors. In a number of clinical and preclinical studies, vitamin A and its derivatives like retinoic acid (RA) have been shown to exert synergistic growth-suppressive effects on several tumor cells. We have employed a genome-wide expression-knockout approach to identify the genes critical for IFN/RA-induced growth suppression. A number of novel Genes associated with Retinoid-Interferon-induced Mortality (GRIM) were isolated. In this review, we will describe the molecular mechanisms of actions of one GRIM-19 which participates in multiple pathways for exerting growth control and/or cell death. This protein is emerging as a new tumor suppressor. In addition, GRIM-19 appears to participate in innate immune responses as its activity is modulated by several viruses and bacteria. Thus, GRIMs seem to couple with multiple biological responses by acting at critical nodes. PMID:20382543

  16. Advances in fracture algorithm development in GRIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullis, I.; Church, P.; Greenwood, P.; Huntington-Thresher, W.; Reynolds, M.

    2003-09-01

    The numerical treatment of fracture processes has long been a major challenge in any hydrocode, but has been particularly acute in Eulerian Hydrocodes. This is due to the difficulties in establishing a consistent process for treating failure and the post failure treatment, which is complicated by advection, mixed cell and interface issues, particularly post failure. This alone increase the complexity of incorporating and validating a failure model compared to a Lagrange hydrocode, where the numerical treatment is much simpler. This paper outlines recent significant progress in the incorporation of fracture models in GRIM and the advection of damage across cell boundaries within the mesh. This has allowed a much more robust treatment of fracture in an Eulerian frame of reference and has greatly expanded the scope of tractable dynamic fracture scenarios. The progress has been possible due to a careful integration of the fracture algorithm within the numerical integration scheme to maintain a consistent representation of the physics. The paper describes various applications, which demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the scheme and highlight some of the future challenges.

  17. Updates in the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs)-Double Fourier Series (DFS) Dynamical Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koo, M. S.; Park, H.; Park, S. H.; Hong, S. Y.

    2014-12-01

    The Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs)-double Fourier series (DFS) spectral dynamical core has been developed to overcome the limitation of traditional spectral model using spherical harmonics in terms of computational cost at very high resolution. Recently, the GRIMs-DFS dynamical core was updated in two respects: (1) better scalability on high-performance computing platform; and (2) reduction of numerical time-stepping error. To improve the parallel efficiency, the archived wave domain was designed not to be sliced in the meridional direction, but to be decomposed in the horizontal and vertical directions. Although the computational cost slightly increased due to the requirement of temporary work array, the revised DFS dynamical core yielded higher scalability in terms of the wall-clock-time than the original one. In addition, its efficiency gain became greater with the increase of horizontal resolution when the number of processors is increased. The Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) time filter has been proposed as a simple improvement to the widely used Robert-Asselin filter, in order to reduce time-stepping errors in semi-implicit leapfrog integration. This new approach was implemented into the GRIMs-DFS dynamical core and its impact was quantitatively evaluated on medium-range forecast and seasonal ensemble prediction frameworks. Preliminary results showed that the RAW time-filter properly reduced spurious light rainfalls that might be produced from unphysical computational mode generated by leap-frog time stepping. Further details will be presented in the conference.

  18. Overexpression of GRIM-19, a mitochondrial respiratory chain complex I protein, suppresses hepatocellular carcinoma growth

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Dexia; Zhao, Lijing; Du, Yanwei; He, Ping; Zou, Yabin; Yang, Luoluo; Sun, Liankun; Wang, Hebin; Xu, Deqi; Meng, Xiangwei; Sun, Xun

    2014-01-01

    GRIM-19 has been demonstrated as an important regulator for the normal tissue development. Recently, more evidences regarded GRIM-19 as the new tumor suppressor. However, the possible mechanisms underlying GRIM-19 suppressing cancer growth are unclear. In the present study, Paired hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and adjacent non-tumor liver tissues were obtained from 54 patients who underwent primary surgical HCC tissue resection. GRIM-19 protein expression in HCC tissues was performed by immunohistochemistry. Cells were transfected by lentiviruses plasmid expressing GRIM-19. RT-PCR and Western blot analyses were performed to confirm the expression of GRIM-19 mRNA or protein. Cell proliferation was assessed by MTT and FCM analyses. Mitochondrial membrane potential and apoptosis were respectively determined by using fluorescence microscopy and FCM analyses. AKT1, pAKT1, cyclinD1, CDK4, PCNA, Bax, Bcl-2, cleaved caspase-9, cleaved caspase-3, and cytochrome C were detected by Western blot and immunofluorescence. GRIM-19 protein expression was markedly lower in HCC than in paired adjacent non-tumor liver tissues. GRIM-19 overexpression in HCC cells significantly induced cell cycle arrest and enhanced apoptosis. We also found that AKT1 expression and phosphorylation were regulated by the expression of GRIM-19. Collectively, our study demonstrated that GRIM-19 overexpression suppressed HCC growth and downregulated AKT1 expression, suggesting that GRIM-19 might play a crucial role in hepatocarcinogenesis through negatively regulating the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway. PMID:25550785

  19. The UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development: Business as Usual in the End

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huckle, John; Wals, Arjen E. J.

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of the literature supporting the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development and a sample of its key products suggests that it failed to acknowledge or challenge neoliberalism as a hegemonic force blocking transitions towards genuine sustainability. The authors argue that the rationale for the Decade was idealistic and that…

  20. It's Not Business as Usual: New and Emerging Career in Marketing, Finance, and Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, April J.

    2010-01-01

    There have been many changes in the field of business as a result of technological advancements, government regulations, and shifts in focus. These new career opportunities have arisen as a result: social media marketers, financial examiners, and project managers. In this article, the author discusses these new and emerging career opportunities in…

  1. Business as Usual? A Review of Continuing Professional Education and Adult Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittnebel, Leo

    2012-01-01

    The commodification of education in all forms has created a lucrative trade, particularly within the realm of continuing professional education. Mandated across a wide spectrum of industries, and particularly salient in healthcare due to rapid advances in medicine and technology, professional education is said to be the vehicle that keeps…

  2. Business as Usual: Exploring Private Sector Participation in American Public Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shakeshaft, Charol; Trachtman, Roberta

    1987-01-01

    Chief executives of corporations were surveyed to see why they participated in school-business collaborations. The survey focused on: (1) what type of corporation was likely to participate; (2) types of partnership; (4) benefits for education; (5) beliefs about corporate involvement; (6) education and corporate philanthropy; and (7) the impact of…

  3. Student Cheating: As Serious an Academic Integrity Problem as Faculty-Administration Business as Usual?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puka, Bill

    2005-01-01

    Most faculty and administrators rate academic dishonesty a high crime, fatal to education. What cheating shows that merits strong opposition is a student's pride in deceptively "getting over" on professors and "the system," even where both are recognized as fair. This affection for injustice and casual disregard for honest dealings must be trained…

  4. Business as Usual: The Use of English in the Professional World in Hong Kong

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the role of written and spoken English vis-a-vis written Chinese, Cantonese and Putonghua in the four key service industries that have driven Hong Kong's economy in the past decade. The study forms part of a long-standing and continuing investigation into the impact of Hong Kong's transition from British colony to Chinese…

  5. "No-Business-As-Usual German": A Critical Pedagogy of Business German

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Benjamin

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author describes his "Business German" course. His course sought to narrate a dialectic of agency and institution. He started by asserting a distinction between the intending subject--with its plural desires, interests, and identifications--and the world it acts in, through and upon. This distinction between acting subject and…

  6. Business as Usual: Exploring Private Sector Participation in American Public Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shakeshaft, Charol; Trachtman, Roberta

    Although there is widespread publicity about the involvement of businesses with schools, and as President Reagan as well as authors of reform reports continue to call upon the private sector to help education, it is unclear to what extent such relationships exist and what they are accomplishing. A 10-page, 55-question survey was mailed to the…

  7. GRIM-19 mutations fail to inhibit v-Src-induced oncogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Kalakonda, Sudhakar; Nallar, Shreeram C.; Lindner, Daniel J.; Sun, Peng; Lorenz, Robert R.; Lamarre, Eric; Reddy, Sekhar P.; Kalvakolanu, Dhananjaya V.

    2014-01-01

    The non-receptor tyrosine kinase Src is a major player in multiple physiological responses including growth, survival and differentiation. Overexpression and/or oncogenic mutation in the Src gene have been documented in human tumors. The v-Src protein is an oncogenic mutant of Src, which promotes cell survival, migration, invasion and division. GRIM-19 is an anti-oncogene isolated using a genome-wide knockdown screen. GRIM-19 binds to transcription factor STAT3 and ablates its pro-oncogenic effects while v-Src activates STAT3 to promote its oncogenic effects. However, we found that GRIM-19 inhibits the pro-oncogenic effects of v-Src independently of STAT3. Here, we report the identification of functionally inactivating GRIM-19 mutations in a set of Head and Neck cancer patients. While wild-type GRIM-19 strongly ablated v-Src-induced cell migration, cytoskeletal remodeling and tumor metastasis, the tumor-derived mutants (L71P, L91P and A95T) did not. These mutants were also incapable of inhibiting the drug resistance of v-Src-transformed cells. v-Src down regulated the expression of Pag1, a lipid raft-associated inhibitor of Src, which was restored by wild-type GRIM-19. The tumor-derived mutant GRIM-19 proteins failed to upregulate Pag1. These studies show a novel mechanism that deregulates Src activity in cancer cells. PMID:23851499

  8. Upregulation of GRIM-19 inhibits the growth and invasion of human breast cancer cells.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Du, Ye; Jiang, Tong; Geng, Wei; Yuan, Jiuli; Zhang, Duo

    2015-08-01

    Gene associated with retinoid-interferon (IFN)-induced mortality 19 (GRIM-19), a novel IFN-β/retinoic acid-inducible gene product, has been identified as a potential tumor suppressor, which is associated with the inhibition of tumor growth. GRIM-19 has been demonstrated to be downregulated in the ovarian tissue of patients with breast cancer, however, its role in breast cancer remains to be fully elucidated. In the present study, a recombinant eukaryotic expression plasmid carrying GRIM-19 was constructed and then transfected into the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line to examine its effects on breast cancer cell growth, migration and invasion using several in vitro approaches. The results demonstrated that upregulation GRIM-19 in the MCF7 cells significantly inhibited cell proliferation, colony formation, migration and invasion, and induced cell apoptosis. Additionally, upregulation of GRIM-19 also suppressed the secretion of urokinase-type plasminogen activator (u-PA), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2, MMP-9 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). It was also demonstrated that the activation of signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) was downregulated by the expression of GRIM-19. These results revealed that overexpression of the GRIM-19 gene may be an effective approach to control the growth and invasion of human breast cancer cells. PMID:25955394

  9. GRIM-19 Restores Cervical Cancer Cell Senescence by Repressing hTERT Transcription.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Ying; Xu, Fei; Tao, Feng; Feng, Dingqing; Ling, Bin; Qian, Lili; Yang, Xia; Wang, Qingyuan; Wang, Huiyan; Zhao, Weidong; Cheng, Yong; Shan, Ge; Kalvakolanu, Dhan V; Xiao, Weihua

    2016-08-01

    High telomerase activity promotes tumor growth by stabilizing damaged chromosomes and their mitotic replication. Overactivation of telomerase activity has been reported in cervical cancer, a malignancy caused by high-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPVs). The HR-HPV E6 can activate hTERT promoter by interacting with E6AP or other binding proteins and by stabilizing the interaction between hTERT and E6AP. GRIM-19 is a novel tumor suppressor that affects multiple targets in a cell to regulate growth. We have previously reported the interaction of GRIM-19 with 18E6 and E6AP to disrupt the E6/E6AP complex and increase the autoubiquitination of E6AP. In this study, we characterized the interaction of GRIM-19 with 16E6 (an oncoprotein produced by HPV16) and identified the binding sites that mediate this interaction. We also found that GRIM-19 expression in cervical cancer cells could inhibit telomerase activity by inhibiting the transactivation of the hTERT promoter by E6, thereby promoting cervical cancer cell senescence. Moreover, we identified a negative correlation between GRIM-19 and hTERT expression in cervical cancer tissues. Suppression of GRIM-19 and induction of hTERT levels were associated with lymph node metastasis, advanced clinical stage, and poor prognosis. This study identified another important novel antitumor molecular link associated with GRIM-19 in the tumorigenesis. PMID:27142689

  10. Monoallelic loss of tumor suppressor GRIM-19 promotes tumorigenesis in mice

    PubMed Central

    Kalakonda, Sudhakar; Nallar, Shreeram C.; Jaber, Sausan; Keay, Susan K.; Rorke, Ellen; Munivenkatappa, Raghava; Lindner, Daniel J.; Fiskum, Gary M.; Kalvakolanu, Dhananjaya V.

    2013-01-01

    Gene-associated with retinoid-interferon induced mortality-19 (GRIM-19), a STAT3-inhibitory protein, was isolated as a growth-suppressive gene product using a genome-wide expression knockdown screen. We and others have shown a loss of expression and occurrence of mutations in the GRIM-19 gene in a variety of primary human cancers, indicating its potential role as tumor suppressor. To help investigate its role in tumor development in vivo, we generated a genetically modified mouse in which Grim-19 can be conditionally inactivated. Deletion of Grim-19 in the skin significantly increased the susceptibility of mice to chemical carcinogenesis, resulting in development of squamous cell carcinomas. These tumors had high Stat3 activity and an increased expression of Stat3-responsive genes. Loss of Grim-19 also caused mitochondrial electron transport dysfunction resulting from failure to assemble electron transport chain complexes and altered the expression of several cellular genes involved in glycolysis. Surprisingly, the deletion of a single copy of the Grim-19 gene was sufficient to promote carcinogenesis and formation of invasive squamous cell carcinomas. These observations highlight the critical role of GRIM-19 as a tumor suppressor. PMID:24145455

  11. Apoptotic proteins Reaper and Grim induce stable inactivation in voltage-gated K+ channels

    PubMed Central

    Avdonin, V.; Kasuya, J.; Ciorba, M. A.; Kaplan, B.; Hoshi, T.; Iverson, L.

    1998-01-01

    Drosophila genes reaper, grim, and head-involution-defective (hid) induce apoptosis in several cellular contexts. N-terminal sequences of these proteins are highly conserved and are similar to N-terminal inactivation domains of voltage-gated potassium (K+) channels. Synthetic Reaper and Grim N terminus peptides induced fast inactivation of Shaker-type K+ channels when applied to the cytoplasmic side of the channel that was qualitatively similar to the inactivation produced by other K+ channel inactivation particles. Mutations that reduce the apoptotic activity of Reaper also reduced the synthetic peptide’s ability to induce channel inactivation, indicating that K+ channel inactivation correlated with apoptotic activity. Coexpression of Reaper RNA or direct injection of full length Reaper protein caused near irreversible block of the K+ channels. These results suggest that Reaper and Grim may participate in initiating apoptosis by stably blocking K+ channels. PMID:9751729

  12. Oxidation States of GRIM Glasses in EET79001 Based on Vanadium Valence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutton, S. R.; Rao, M. N.; Nyquist, L. E.

    2010-03-01

    Mean vanadium valences determined by microXANES for gas-rich impact-melt (GRIM) glasses in EET79001 ranged from 3.0 to 3.6. Mean fO2 ranged from IW-1.2 to IW+1.4. Variable oxidation state is consistent with impact reduction of regolith precursors.

  13. GRIM-19 opposes reprogramming of glioblastoma cell metabolism via HIF1α destabilization.

    PubMed

    Liu, Qian; Wang, Lulu; Wang, Zhaojuan; Yang, Yang; Tian, Jingxia; Liu, Guoliang; Guan, Dongshi; Cao, Xinmin; Zhang, Yanmin; Hao, Aijun

    2013-08-01

    The metabolism that sustains cancer cells is adapted preferentially to glycolysis, even under aerobic conditions (Warburg effect). This effect was one of the first alterations in cancer cells recognized as conferring a survival advantage. In this study, we show that gene associated with retinoid-interferon-induced mortality-19 (GRIM-19), which was previously identified as a tumor suppressor protein associated with growth inhibition and cell apoptosis, contributes to the switch between oxidative and glycolytic pathways. In parallel to this, vascular endothelial growth factor, which promotes neovascularization, is also regulated. We have identified hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF1α) as the downstream factor of GRIM-19 in human glioblastoma cell lines. Downregulation of GRIM-19 promotes HIF1α synthesis in a STAT3-dependent manner, which acts as a potential competitive inhibitor for von Hippel-Lindau (pVHL)-HIF1α interaction, and thereby prevents HIF1α from pVHL-mediated ubiquitination and proteasomal degradation. Taken together, it is concluded that GRIM-19, a potential tumor suppressor gene, performs its function in part via regulating glioblastoma metabolic reprogramming through STAT3-HIF1α signaling axis, and this has added new perspective to its role in tumorigenesis, thus providing potential strategies for tumor metabolic therapy. PMID:23580587

  14. Inhibitor of Apoptosis Proteins Physically Interact with and Block Apoptosis Induced by Drosophila Proteins HID and GRIM

    PubMed Central

    Vucic, Domagoj; Kaiser, William J.; Miller, Lois K.

    1998-01-01

    Reaper (RPR), HID, and GRIM activate apoptosis in cells programmed to die during Drosophila development. We have previously shown that transient overexpression of RPR in the lepidopteran SF-21 cell line induces apoptosis and that members of the inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP) family of antiapoptotic proteins can inhibit RPR-induced apoptosis and physically interact with RPR through their BIR motifs (D. Vucic, W. J. Kaiser, A. J. Harvey, and L. K. Miller, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94:10183–10188, 1997). In this study, we found that transient overexpression of HID and GRIM also induced apoptosis in the SF-21 cell line. Baculovirus and Drosophila IAPs blocked HID- and GRIM-induced apoptosis and also physically interacted with them through the BIR motifs of the IAPs. The region of sequence similarity shared by RPR, HID, and GRIM, the N-terminal 14 amino acids of each protein, was required for the induction of apoptosis by HID and its binding to IAPs. When stably overexpressed by fusion to an unrelated, nonapoptotic polypeptide, the N-terminal 37 amino acids of HID and GRIM were sufficient to induce apoptosis and confer IAP binding activity. However, GRIM was more complex than HID since the C-terminal 124 amino acids of GRIM retained apoptosis-inducing and IAP binding activity, suggesting the presence of two independent apoptotic motifs within GRIM. Coexpression of IAPs with HID stabilized HID levels and resulted in the accumulation of HID in punctate perinuclear locations which coincided with IAP localization. The physical interaction of IAPs with RPR, HID, and GRIM provides a common molecular mechanism for IAP inhibition of these Drosophila proapoptotic proteins. PMID:9584170

  15. Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Taking Stock of Forest Carbon Worldwide While Changing Business As Usual

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borgatti, R.; Bebber, D. P.; Riutta, T.; Murthy, I.; Ren, H.; Parker, G.; Capretz, R.; Phillips, R.

    2011-12-01

    For the last 40 years, Earthwatch Institute has engaged people and communities in citizen science projects around the world, focusing on topics ranging from climate change in South American rainforests to wildlife conservation on the Mongolian Steppe. In collaboration with the financial institution HSBC and five research partners, Earthwatch has just completed a global, five-year (2007-2012) climate change research project in temperate and tropical forests representative of managed forests worldwide (www.earthwatch.org/hcp). This work was completed in part by more than 2200 HSBC staff members who worked side by side with scientists to collect forest data at five centers, one each in India, China, England, Brazil and the United States. This talk will present findings from this unprecedented climate change research program and highlight research findings specific to each of the countries. In addition to the results from the quantitative research collection, some of the key management outreach and business outcomes resulting from this research will be presented.

  16. Morgenröthe or business as usual: a personal account of the 2nd Annual EULAR Congress, Prague

    PubMed Central

    Wollheim, Frank A

    2001-01-01

    The 2nd Annual European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Congress, held in Prague, 13–16 June 2001, was an impressive event with a record turnout of 8300 delegates. It offered a large variety of first-class state of the art lectures by some 180 invited worldwide speakers. Several new and ongoing therapeutic developments were discussed. The aim to attract the young scientific community was only partly achieved, and the dependence on industry posed some problems. The organization, however, was a big improvement compared with the previous congress in this series. The number of submitted abstracts was relatively low (1200) compared with the number of delegates. Accommodation of satellite symposia and organization of poster sessions remain problem areas of this meeting. The Annual EULAR Congress emerges as one of the two most important annual congresses of rheumatology, the other being the American College of Rheumatology meeting.

  17. Becoming a Truly Helpful Teacher: Considerably More Challenging, and Potentially More Fun, than Merely Doing Business as Usual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jason, Hilliard

    2007-01-01

    Few medical faculty members are adequately prepared for their instructional responsibilities. Our educational traditions were established before we had research-based understandings of the teaching-learning process and before brain research began informing our understandings of how humans achieve lasting learning. Yet, there are several advantages…

  18. Application of Goldthorpe PDF model to dynamic fracture. Applications using the GRIM Eulerian hydrocode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullis, I. G.; Church, P. D.; Townsley, R.; Greenwood, P.; Proud, W. G.

    2006-08-01

    The Goldthorpe Path Dependent Failure (PDF) model has been incorporated into the GRIM Eulerian hydrocode and has been applied to a number of dynamic fracture scenarios. The model has allowed a step change improvement in the simulation of fracture processes in an Euler scheme. The applications include shear plugging of a plate due to ballistic impact, prediction of the so-called V{50} for a small mass projectile and the impact of a generic EFP against an aluminium plate target. It has been noted that the prediction of temperature in hydrocodes, still requires more effort, particularly when materials approach the melt point. In addition there is also significant batch to batch variation in the fracture properties in materials, which needs to be taken into account when simulating a given application scenario. The paper discusses these points and recognises that GRIM is now an integral part of the design process for new ballistic designs.

  19. Acid-Sulfate-Weathering Activity in Shergottite Sites on Mars Recorded in Grim Glasses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, M. N.; Nyquist, L. E.; Ross, K.; Sutton, S. R.; Schwandt, C. S.

    2011-01-01

    Based on mass spectrometric studies of sulfur species in Shergotty and EET79001, [1] and [2] showed that sulfates and sulfides occur in different proportions in shergottites. Sulfur speciation studies in gas-rich impact-melt (GRIM) glasses in EET79001 by the XANES method [3] showed that S K-XANES spectra in GRIM glasses from Lith A indicate that S is associated with Ca and Al presumably as sulfides/sulfates whereas the XANES spectra of amorphous sulfide globules in GRIM glasses from Lith B indicate that S is associated with Fe as FeS. In these amorphous iron sulfide globules, [4] found no Ni using FE-SEM and suggested that the globules resulting from immiscible sulfide melt may not be related to the igneous iron sulfides having approximately 1-3% Ni. Furthermore, in the amorphous iron sulfides from 507 GRIM glass, [5] determined delta(sup 34)S values ranging from +3.5%o to -3.1%o using Nano-SIMS. These values plot between the delta(sup 34)S value of +5.25%o determined in the sulfate fraction in Shergotty [6] at one extreme and the value of -1.7%o obtained for igneous sulfides in EET79001 and Shergotty [7] at the other. These results suggest that the amorphous Fe-S globules likely originated by shock reduction of secondary iron sulfate phases occurring in the regolith precursor materials during impact [7]. Sulfates in the regolith materials near the basaltic shergottite sites on Mars owe their origin to surficial acid-sulfate interactions. We examine the nature of these reactions by studying the composition of the end products in altered regolith materials. For the parent material composition, we use that of the host shergottite material in which the impact glasses are situated.

  20. Simulations of atmospheric methane for Cape Grim, Tasmania, to constrain southeastern Australian methane emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loh, Z. M.; Law, R. M.; Haynes, K. D.; Krummel, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Fraser, P. J.; Chambers, S. D.; Williams, A. G.

    2015-01-01

    This study uses two climate models and six scenarios of prescribed methane emissions to compare modelled and observed atmospheric methane between 1994 and 2007, for Cape Grim, Australia (40.7° S, 144.7° E). The model simulations follow the TransCom-CH4 protocol and use the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) and the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). Radon is also simulated and used to reduce the impact of transport differences between the models and observations. Comparisons are made for air samples that have traversed the Australian continent. All six emission scenarios give modelled concentrations that are broadly consistent with those observed. There are three notable mismatches, however. Firstly, scenarios that incorporate interannually varying biomass burning emissions produce anomalously high methane concentrations at Cape Grim at times of large fire events in southeastern Australia, most likely due to the fire methane emissions being unrealistically input into the lowest model level. Secondly, scenarios with wetland methane emissions in the austral winter overestimate methane concentrations at Cape Grim during wintertime while scenarios without winter wetland emissions perform better. Finally, all scenarios fail to represent a~methane source in austral spring implied by the observations. It is possible that the timing of wetland emissions in the scenarios is incorrect with recent satellite measurements suggesting an austral spring (September-October-November), rather than winter, maximum for wetland emissions.

  1. Oxidation States of Grim Glasses in EET79001 Based on Vanadium Valence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutton, S. R.; Rao, M. N.; Nyquist, L. E.

    2010-01-01

    Gas-rich impact-melt (GRIM) glasses in SNC meteorites are very rich in Martian atmospheric noble gases and sulfur suggesting a possible occurrence of regolith-derived secondary mineral assemblages in these samples. Previously, we have studied two GRIM glasses, 506 and 507, from EET79001 Lith A and Lith B, respectively, for elemental abundances and spatial distribution of sulfur using EMPA (WDS) and FE-SEM (EDS) techniques and for sulfur-speciation using K-edge XANES techniques. These elemental and FE-SEM micro-graph data at several locations in the GRIM glasses from Shergotty (DBS), Zagami 994 and EET79001, Lith B showed that FeO and SO3 are positively correlated (SO3 represents a mixture of sulfide and sulfate). FE-SEM (EDS) study revealed that the sulfur-rich pockets in these glasses contain numerous micron-sized iron-sulfide (Fe-S) globules sequestered throughout the volume. However, in some areas (though less frequently), we detected significant Fe-S-O signals suggesting the occurrence of iron sulfate. These GRIM glasses were studied by K-edge microXANES techniques for sulfur speciation in association with iron in sulfur-rich areas. In both samples, we found the sulfur speciation dominated by sulfide with minor oxidized sulfur mixed in with various proportions. The abundance of oxidized sulfur was greater in 506 than in 507. Based on these results, we hypothesize that sulfur initially existed as sulfate in the glass precursor materials and, on shock-impact melting of the precursor materials producing these glasses, the oxidized sulfur was reduced to predominately sulfide. In order to further test this hypothesis, we have used microXANES to measure the valence states of vanadium in GRIM glasses from Lith A and Lith B to complement and compare with previous analogous measurements on Lith C (note: 506 and 507 contain the largest amounts of martian atmospheric gases but the gas-contents in Lith C measured by are unknown). Vanadium is ideal for addressing this re

  2. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  3. Surface ozone at rural sites in the latrobe valley and Cape Grim, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galbally, I. E.; Miller, A. J.; Hoy, R. D.; Ahmet, S.; Joynt, R. C.; Attwood, D.

    Ozone and other air quality data from five rural sites in the industrialized Latrobe Valley, Victoria, have been subject to statistical analyses including linear regression modelling. The behaviour of O 3 in the Latrobe Valley is explained largely in terms of natural background atmospheric processes as observed at Cape Grim, Tasmania. The maximum 1-h average concentration of naturally occurring O 3 (obtained from a 6-year record at Cape Grim) is less than 40 ppb (v/v). In contrast the industrialized Latrobe Valley sites show O 3 values exceeding 40 ppb between 1% and 3% of the time. These higher concentrations occur in conditions consistent with local photochemical production of O 3 via 'smog' type processes and appear preferentially at low NO x concentrations (3-4 ppb) during the afternoon (13-18 h) and at high temperatures (above 25°C). A comparison of observations from an elevated station (750 m) with those from the valley floor shows systematic differences in seasonal and diurnal O 3 variations and the time of day of occurrence of elevated O 3 concentrations which can be explained in terms of the diurnal cycle of convective mixing and mountain/valley winds. A linear regression model incorporating this understanding has accounted for between 43% and 64% of the variance of O 3 concentration at the elevated and rural stations. The statistical model incorporates temperature, time of day, month of year, wind speed, O 3 concentration 24-h earlier and NO x concentration as variables in the regression equation, with temperature being the dominant variable. The standard deviation of the residual O 3 values (observed minus fitted) is around 5 ppb. Auto and cross correlations are used to show that perhaps half of the unexplained variance is coherent from site to site and hence potentially could be modelled.

  4. Observation of sea-salt fraction in sub-100 nm diameter particles at Cape Grim

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cravigan, Luke T.; Ristovski, Zoran; Modini, Robin L.; Keywood, Melita D.; Gras, John L.

    2015-03-01

    Volatility-hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer measurements were used to infer the composition of sub-100 nm diameter Southern Ocean marine aerosols at Cape Grim in November and December 2007. This study focuses on a short-lived high sea spray aerosol (SSA) event on 7-8 December with two externally mixed modes in the Hygroscopic Growth Factor (HGF) distributions (90% relative humidity (RH)), one at HGF > 2 and another at HGF~1.5. The particles with HGF > 2 displayed a deliquescent transition at 73-75% RH and were nonvolatile up to 280°C, which identified them as SSA particles with a large inorganic sea-salt fraction. SSA HGFs were 3-13% below those for pure sea-salt particles, indicating an organic volume fraction (OVF) of up to 11-46%. Observed high inorganic fractions in sub-100 nm SSA is contrary to similar, earlier studies. HGFs increased with decreasing particle diameter over the range 16-97 nm, suggesting a decreased OVF, again contrary to earlier studies. SSA comprised up to 69% of the sub-100 nm particle number, corresponding to concentrations of 110-290 cm-3. Air mass back trajectories indicate that SSA particles were produced 1500 km, 20-40 h upwind of Cape Grim. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray spectrometry measurements of sub-100 nm aerosols collected from the same location, and at the same time, displayed a distinct lack of sea salt. Results herein highlight the potential for biases in TEM analysis of the chemical composition of marine aerosols.

  5. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. High Glucose Induces Down-Regulated GRIM-19 Expression to Activate STAT3 Signaling and Promote Cell Proliferation in Cell Culture

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yong-Guang; Han, Bei-Bei; Li, Feng; Yu, Jian-Wu; Dong, Zhi-Feng; Niu, Geng-Ming; Qing, Yan-Wei; Li, Jing-Bo; Wei, Meng; Zhu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies indicated that Gene Associated with Retinoid-IFN-Induced Mortality 19 (GRIM-19), a newly discovered mitochondria-related protein, can regulate mitochondrial function and modulate cell viability possibly via interacting with STAT3 signal. In the present study we sought to test: 1) whether GRIM-19 is involved in high glucose (HG) induced altered cell metabolism in both cancer and cardiac cells, 2) whether GRIM-19/STAT3 signaling pathway plays a role in HG induced biological effects, especially whether AMPK activity could be involved. Our data showed that HG enhanced cell proliferation of both HeLa and H9C2 cells, which was closely associated with down-regulated GRIM-19 expression and increased phosphorylated STAT3 level. We showed that GRIM-19 knock-down alone in normal glucose cultured cells can also result in an increase in phosphorylated STAT3 level and enhanced proliferation capability, whereas GRIM-19 over-expression can abolished HG induced STAT3 activation and enhanced cell proliferation. Importantly, both down-regulated or over-expression of GRIM-19 increased lactate production in both HeLa and H9C2 cells. The activated STAT3 was responsible for increased cell proliferation as either AG-490, an inhibitor of JAK2, or siRNA targeting STAT3 can attenuate cell proliferation increased by HG. In addition, HG increased lactate acid levels in HeLa cells, which was also observed when GRIM-19 was genetically manipulated. However, HG did not affect the lactate levels in H9C2 cells. Of note, over-expression of GRIM-19 and silencing of STAT3 both increased lactate production in H9C2 cells. As expected, HG resulted in significant decreases in phosphorylated AMPKα levels in H9C2 cells, but not in HeLa cells. Interestingy, activation of AMPKα by metformin was associated with a reversal of the suppressed GRIM-19 expression in H9C2 cells, the fold of changes in GRIM-19 expression by metformin were much less in HeLa cells. Metformin did not affect the

  8. Characterisation of J(O1D) at Cape Grim 2000-2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, S. R.

    2015-07-01

    Estimates of the rate of production of excited oxygen atoms due to the photolysis of ozone (J(O1D)) have been derived from radiation measurements carried out at Cape Grim, Tasmania (40.6° S, 144.7° E). The individual measurements have a total uncertainty of 16 % (1σ). These estimates agree well with model estimates of clear-sky photolysis rates. Observations spanning 2000-2005 have been used to quantify the impact of season, clouds and ozone column amount. The annual cycle of J(O1D) has been investigated via monthly means. These means show an interannual variation (monthly standard deviation) of 9 %, but in midsummer and midwinter this reduces to 3-5 %. Variations in solar zenith angle and total column ozone explain 86 % of the observed variability in the measured photolysis rates. The impact of total column ozone, expressed as a radiation amplification factor (RAF), is found to be ~ 1.53, in agreement with model estimates. This ozone dependence explains 20 % of the variation observed at medium solar zenith angles (30-50°). The impact of clouds results in a median reduction of 30 % in J(O1D) for the same solar zenith angle range. Including estimates of cloudiness derived from long-wave radiation measurements resulted in a statistically significant fit to observations, but the quality of the fit did not increase significantly as measured by the adjusted R2.

  9. Aerosol Optical Depth at Cape Grim 1986 - 2014: What does it tell us?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Stephen

    2015-04-01

    The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station is located near the northwest tip of Tasmania (Australia), a site chosen to permit measurement of the atmospheric environment over the southern oceans. Atmospheric measurements began in the late 1970s, and observations of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) using automated sunphotometers began in 1986. Since then, measurements have continued with a range of different instruments operating at a varying number of wavelengths. The site is challenging for these measurements as it is exposed to a sea-salt laden atmosphere, which presents both instrumental issues (corrosion) and measurement complications (salt fouling of the windows) in addition to the high frequency of cloud. The dataset has been processed to produce a record of half-hourly AOD for the period 1986 - 2014 and investigated for internal consistency. In general the AOD is small (around 0.05 at 500nm). The impact of the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 can be clearly observed, along with a persistent annual cycle. This has been further analyzed fitting to all wavelengths measured to derive an averaged optical depth (at 500 nm) and some preliminary aerosol size distribution information.

  10. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  11. Social change or business as usual at city hall? Examining an urban municipal government's response to neighbourhood-level health inequities.

    PubMed

    Cahuas, Madelaine C; Wakefield, Sarah; Peng, Yun

    2015-05-01

    There is a renewed interest in the potential of municipal governments working collaboratively with local communities to address health inequities. A growing body of literature has also highlighted the benefits and limitations of participatory approaches in neighbourhood interventions initiated by municipal governments. However, few studies have investigated how neighbourhood interventions tackling health inequities work in real-time and in context, from the perspectives of Community Developers (CDs) who promote community participation. This study uses a process evaluation approach and semi-structured interviews with CDs to explore the challenges they face in implementing a community development, participatory process in the City of Hamilton's strategy to reduce health inequities - Neighbourhood Action. Findings demonstrate that municipal government can facilitate and suppress community participation in complex ways. CDs serve as significant but conflicted intermediaries as they negotiate and navigate power differentials between city and community actors, while also facing structural challenges. We conclude that community participation is important to bottom-up, resident-led social change, and that CDs are central to this work. PMID:25245453

  12. The Role of Chapter Meetings: Business as Usual or a Course in Leadership Development? and Why FBLA-PBL? The Importance of Student Organizations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fracaroli, Mary Lynn; Fitzhugh-Pemberton, Gladys

    1996-01-01

    Fracaroli describes ways advisors can use vocational student organizations as leadership laboratories. Fitzhugh-Pemberton explains the value to students of joining Future Business Leaders of America-Phi Beta Lambda. (SK)

  13. The Transition from Business as Usual to Funding for Results: State Efforts To Integrate Performance Measures in the Higher Education Budgetary Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Albright, Brenda Norman

    This report describes a 1997 survey which examined performance funding in higher education and offers guidelines for states' and institutions' explorations of performance-based funding. Among highlights of the survey are: 32 states are planning or using performance measures in the state budget process; legislatively mandated initiatives are…

  14. Paradigm Shift or Business as Usual: The Reception and Implementation of the BYU-Idaho Learning Model by Faculty Members--A Mixed Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thurgood, Larry L.

    2010-01-01

    A mixed methods study examined how a newly developed campus-wide framework for learning and teaching, called the Learning Model, was accepted and embraced by faculty members at Brigham Young University-Idaho from September 2007 to January 2009. Data from two administrations of the Approaches to Teaching Inventory showed that (a) faculty members…

  15. Biomass burning emissions of trace gases and particles in marine air at Cape Grim, Tasmania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawson, S. J.; Keywood, M. D.; Galbally, I. E.; Gras, J. L.; Cainey, J. M.; Cope, M. E.; Krummel, P. B.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Bentley, S. T.; Meyer, C. P.; Ristovski, Z.; Goldstein, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Biomass burning (BB) plumes were measured at the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station during the 2006 Precursors to Particles campaign, when emissions from a fire on nearby Robbins Island impacted the station. Measurements made included non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs) (PTR-MS), particle number size distribution, condensation nuclei (CN) > 3 nm, black carbon (BC) concentration, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number, ozone (O3), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen (H2), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons and meteorology. During the first plume strike event (BB1), a 4 h enhancement of CO (max ~ 2100 ppb), BC (~ 1400 ng m-3) and particles > 3 nm (~ 13 000 cm-3) with dominant particle mode of 120 nm were observed overnight. A wind direction change lead to a dramatic reduction in BB tracers and a drop in the dominant particle mode to 50 nm. The dominant mode increased in size to 80 nm over 5 h in calm sunny conditions, accompanied by an increase in ozone. Due to an enhancement in BC but not CO during particle growth, the presence of BB emissions during this period could not be confirmed. The ability of particles > 80 nm (CN80) to act as CCN at 0.5 % supersaturation was investigated. The ΔCCN / ΔCN80 ratio was lowest during the fresh BB plume (56 ± 8 %), higher during the particle growth period (77 ± 4 %) and higher still (104 ± 3 %) in background marine air. Particle size distributions indicate that changes to particle chemical composition, rather than particle size, are driving these changes. Hourly average CCN during both BB events were between 2000 and 5000 CCN cm-3, which were enhanced above typical background levels by a factor of 6-34, highlighting the dramatic impact BB plumes can have on CCN number in clean marine regions. During the 29 h of the second plume strike event (BB2) CO, BC and a range of NMOCs including acetonitrile and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) were clearly enhanced and some enhancements in O3 were observed

  16. Mutation in NDUFA13/GRIM19 leads to early onset hypotonia, dyskinesia and sensorial deficiencies, and mitochondrial complex I instability.

    PubMed

    Angebault, Claire; Charif, Majida; Guegen, Naig; Piro-Megy, Camille; Mousson de Camaret, Benedicte; Procaccio, Vincent; Guichet, Pierre-Olivier; Hebrard, Maxime; Manes, Gael; Leboucq, Nicolas; Rivier, François; Hamel, Christian P; Lenaers, Guy; Roubertie, Agathe

    2015-07-15

    Mitochondrial complex I (CI) deficiencies are causing debilitating neurological diseases, among which, the Leber Hereditary Optic Neuropathy and Leigh Syndrome are the most frequent. Here, we describe the first germinal pathogenic mutation in the NDUFA13/GRIM19 gene encoding a CI subunit, in two sisters with early onset hypotonia, dyskinesia and sensorial deficiencies, including a severe optic neuropathy. Biochemical analysis revealed a drastic decrease in CI enzymatic activity in patient muscle biopsies, and reduction of CI-driven respiration in fibroblasts, while the activities of complex II, III and IV were hardly affected. Western blots disclosed that the abundances of NDUFA13 protein, CI holoenzyme and super complexes were drastically reduced in mitochondrial fractions, a situation that was reproduced by silencing NDUFA13 in control cells. Thus, we established here a correlation between the first mutation yet identified in the NDUFA13 gene, which induces CI instability and a severe but slowly evolving clinical presentation affecting the central nervous system. PMID:25901006

  17. Non-sea-salt sulfate, methanesulfonate, and nitrate aerosol concentrations and size distributions at Cape Grim, Tasmania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreae, Meinrat O.; Elbert, Wolfgang; Cai, Yong; Andreae, Tracey W.; Gras, John

    1999-09-01

    We collected weekly aerosol samples using high-volume impactors over a period of 20 months (1988-1990) at the Cape Grim baseline station on the northwestern coast of Tasmania, Australia. The samples were analyzed for soluble ionic constituents, including sulfate, methanesulfonate (MS-), ammonium, nitrate, and the major sea-salt ions. The sea-salt component showed only a slight seasonal variation, whereas the non-sea-salt (nss) ions all had pronounced summer maxima. Significant interannual variability was seen between the nss ion concentrations measured during the two summers investigated. Nss sulfate and MS- were present both in the fine and coarse aerosol fractions, in the latter presumably associated with sea-salt particles. During the winter period, there was more nss sulfate in the coarse fraction than in the fine fraction. These observations are consistent with an important role of liquid-phase oxidation in haze and cloud droplets for the production of nss sulfate aerosol. The seasonal behavior of the sulfur and nitrogen species at Cape Grim and their mutual correlations suggest that DMS oxidation is the dominant sulfur source during summer, while nonbiogenic sulfur sources make significant contributions to nss sulfate outside of this season. Correlations of CN and CCN concentrations with nss sulfate, MS-, and wind speed suggest that DMS oxidation and, to a lesser extent, seaspray formation contributes to CN and CCN populations. The contrast between the weak seasonality of the sea-salt component and the pronounced seasonal behavior in both sulfur species and CCN supports the central role of biogenic DMS emissions as precursors of CCN in this region, at least in the biologically productive season.

  18. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  19. Forecasting Future Social Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abt, Clark C.

    1971-01-01

    Describes briefly why social forecasting is easier than technological forecasting, offers four approaches to social forecasting (judgment, extrapolation, speculation, analysis), and suggests a procedure recommended for social forecasting. (CJ)

  20. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  1. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  2. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  3. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  4. Today's Grim Jobs Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogg, Neeta P.; Harrington, Paul E.

    2010-01-01

    June 2009 is seen by many as the end of the Great Recession. Strong growth in GDP following massive monetary and fiscal responses to the collapse in housing and financial markets meant that the economy was on the mend. Yet a year later, 1.1 million "fewer" people are working, and the unemployment rate is stuck at 9.5%. Worse still, more than one…

  5. Biomass burning emissions of trace gases and particles in marine air at Cape Grim, Tasmania, 41° S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawson, S. J.; Keywood, M. D.; Galbally, I. E.; Gras, J. L.; Cainey, J. M.; Cope, M. E.; Krummel, P. B.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Bentley, S. T.; Meyer, C. P.; Ristovski, Z.; Goldstein, A. H.

    2015-07-01

    Biomass burning (BB) plumes were measured at the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station during the 2006 Precursors to Particles campaign, when emissions from a fire on nearby Robbins Island impacted the station. Measurements made included non methane organic compounds (NMOCs) (PTR-MS), particle number size distribution, condensation nuclei (CN) > 3 nm, black carbon (BC) concentration, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number, ozone (O3), methane (CH4), carbon monixide (CO), hydrogen (H2), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons and meteorology. During the first plume strike event (BB1), a four hour enhancement of CO (max ~ 2100 ppb), BC (~ 1400 ng m-3) and particles > 3 nm (~ 13 000 cm-3) with dominant particle mode of 120 nm were observed overnight. Dilution of the plume resulted in a drop in the dominant particle mode to 50 nm, and then growth to 80 nm over 5 h. This was accompanied by an increase in O3, suggesting that photochemical processing of air and condensation of low volatility oxidation products may be driving particle growth. The ability of particles > 80 nm (CN80) to act as CCN at 0.5 % supersaturation was investigated. The ΔCCN / ΔCN80 ratio was lowest during the fresh BB plume (56 %), higher during the particle growth event (77 %) and higher still (104 %) in background marine air. Particle size distributions indicate that changes to particle chemical composition, rather than particle size, are driving these changes. Hourly average CCN during both BB events were between 2000-5000 CCN cm-3, which were enhanced above typical background levels by a factor of 6-34, highlighting the dramatic impact BB plumes can have on CCN number in clean marine regions. During the 29 h of the second plume strike event (BB2) CO, BC and a range of NMOCs including acetonitrile and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) were clearly enhanced and some enhancements in O3 were observed (ΔO3 / ΔCO 0.001-0.074). A shortlived increase in NMOCs by a factor of 10 corresponded

  6. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  7. Verifications of the medium-range forecasts of KIAPS integrated model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Eun-Hee; Lee, Juwon; Choi, In-Jin

    2016-04-01

    The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction System, KIAPS, was established to carry out a national project in developing a new global forecast system from 2011 to 2019. The initial version of KIAPS Integrated Model, KIM, consisted of a spectral element dynamical core on a cubed sphere and a standard physics package from existing models such as the GRIMs, WRF, and GFS. Then KIM2.0 was released with the advanced or newly developed physics, dynamics, and data assimilation. Last July, its semi-real time forecast for 5 days has been operated every 00 and 12 UTC with the fully coupled 3D Var data assimilation system. Performance of KIM forecasts is evaluated both for the period of the selected testbed cases and for the semi-real time operational period, to examine the model improvement along with the upgrade and to figure out the model bias. Standardized statistical verification is also conducted including verification against analyses and observations (e.g., sonde and precipitation data). These will be summarized in this presentation. Additionally, surface verification using SYNOP observations and spatial verification for precipitation applied to meet the need for more informative forecast evaluations will be discussed.

  8. Computers and Technological Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martino, Joseph P.

    1971-01-01

    Forecasting is becoming increasingly automated, thanks in large measure to the computer. It is now possible for a forecaster to submit his data to a computation center and call for the appropriate program. (No knowledge of statistics is required.) (Author)

  9. Forecasting Artificial Intelligence Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, David R.; Shelley, Charles

    1986-03-01

    Forecasts are major components of the decision analysis process. When accurate, estimates of future economic activity associated with specific courses of action can correctly set corporate strategy in an uncertain environment. When inaccurate, they can lead to bankruptcy. The basic trouble with most forecasts is that they are not made by forecasters.

  10. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  11. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  12. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  13. No evidence for change of the atmospheric helium isotope composition since 1978 from re-analysis of the Cape Grim Air Archive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mabry, Jennifer C.; Lan, Tefang; Boucher, Christine; Burnard, Peter G.; Brennwald, Matthias S.; Langenfelds, Ray; Marty, Bernard

    2015-10-01

    The helium isotope composition of air might have changed since the industrial revolution due to the release of 4He-rich crustal helium during exploitation of fossil fuels. Thereby, variation of the atmospheric helium isotope ratio (3He/4He) has been proposed as a possible new atmospheric tracer of industrial activity. However, the magnitude of such change is debated, with possible values ranging from 0 to about 2 ‰ /yr (Sano et al., 1989; Hoffman and Nier, 1993; Pierson-Wickmann et al., 2001; Brennwald et al., 2013; Lupton and Evans, 2013). A new analytical facility for high precision (2‰, 2σ) analysis of the 3He/4He ratio of air has been developed at CRPG Nancy (France) capable of investigating permil level variations. Previously, Brennwald et al. (2013) analyzed a selection of air samples archived since 1978 at Cape Grim, Tasmania, by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). They reported a mean temporal decrease of the 3He/4He ratio of 0.23-0.30‰/yr. Re-analysis of aliquots of the same samples using the new high-precision instrument showed no significant temporal decrease of the 3He/4He ratio (0.0095 ± 0.033‰ /yr, 2σ) in the time interval 1978-2011. These new data constrain the mean He content of globally produced natural gas to about 0.034% or less, which is about 3× lower than commonly quoted.

  14. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  15. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  16. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  17. A global non-hydrostatic weather forecast model in KIAPS using the spectral element on a cubed sphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Eun-Hee; Hong, Song-You

    2016-04-01

    This presentation covers an introduction to the current state of a non-hydrostatic global atmospheric model to be named the KIAPS integrated model (KIM). Efforts to resolve an excessive dissipation in small scales in KIM will be discussed. Also, simulated results for several idealized benchmark tests and full-physics forecasts will be shown. The dynamical core of the model is using the Euler equation set in a flux form based on the terrain following mass-based vertical coordinate, which is discretized by horizontal spectral element method (SEM) and the vertical finite difference method (FDM) for the spatial discretization and a time-split third-order Runge-Kutta (RK3) for the time discretization. Owing to the virtue of SEM and the explicit time integrator, KIM can achieve easily a high level of scalability. The physics package coupled with the dynamical core is a standard physics package from existing models such as the GRIMs, WRF, and GFS.

  18. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  19. SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, S. W.; Zhang, Y.; Schaefer, R. K.; Romeo, G.; Paxton, L.

    2013-12-01

    A new capability has been developed at JHU/APL for forecasting the global aurora quantities based on the DMSP SSUSI data and the TIMED/GUVI Global Aurora Model. The SSUSI Aurora Forecast Model predicts the electron energy flux, mean energy, and equatorward boundary in the auroral oval for up to 1 day or 15 DMSP orbits in advance. In our presentation, we will demonstrate this newly implemented capability and its results. The future improvement plan will be discussed too.

  20. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  1. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery. PMID:22949173

  2. Forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balwally, Nandakumar M.

    1991-03-01

    This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a diminishing manufacturing source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

  3. AIDS. Grim news for Asia.

    PubMed

    1992-12-01

    While Asia was the last region to be exposed to the global spread of HIV and AIDS, the incidence of HIV infection there is increasing fastest. The Asian Development Bank predicts mortality from AIDS will cause some town and village populations to begin declining by the year 2000. With an estimated 1 million people infected in India, and 400,000 in Thailand, these 2 countries are particularly exposed to the risk of epidemic HIV spread. In 5 years, more people may be affected by AIDS in India than anywhere else in the world. Concern over a growing presence of HIV is also merited for the Philippines, Indonesia, China, and the drug trade's Golden Triangle. The Second International Conference on AIDS in Asia and the Pacific in November 1992 stressed that AIDS no longer affects only homosexual and IV drug using populations. 50% of new infections worldwide in the first half of 1992 were among women, 65% of Thailand's AIDS cases are among heterosexuals, and 3-5% of Thailand's long-haul truck drivers have tested positive for HIV infection. HIV and AIDS robs economies and societies of their best workers. The immediate costs of caring for AIDS patients will pale next to the far greater losses to be realized in private sector economic productivity. Asia's more developed economies will probably be able to survive the epidemic, but small, poor countries like Laos will wilt. Prompt action must be taken to overcome public and religious ignorance and objections to promoting and using condoms throughout the region. For the first time, Beijing has organized an AIDS awareness conference for male homosexuals. Further, Singapore has implemented compulsory testing for lower-income foreign workers. Pakistan has even solicited educational assistance and support from Islamic religious leaders; similar action is being considered in Bangladesh. PMID:12285939

  4. How Grim is Pancreatic Cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Weledji, Elroy Patrick; Enoworock, George; Mokake, Martin; Sinju, Motaze

    2016-01-01

    Pancreatic ductal carcinoma continues to be the most lethal malignancy with rising incidence. It is the fourth most common cause of cancer death in the western world due to its low treatment success rate. In addition, because of its rapid growth and silent course, diagnosis is often only established in the advanced stages. As one of the most aggressive malignancies, the treatment of this disease is a great challenge to clinicians. This paper reviewed the natural history of pancreatic cancer, the current clinical practice and the future in pancreatic cancer management. PMID:27471581

  5. Forecasters of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximova, Lyudmila

    1987-07-01

    For the first time Soviet scientists have set up a bioseismological proving ground which will stage a systematic extensive experiment of using birds, ants, mountain rodents including marmots, which can dig holes in the Earth's interior to a depth of 50 meters, for the purpose of earthquake forecasting. Biologists have accumulated extensive experimental data on the impact of various electromagnetic fields, including fields of weak intensity, on living organisms. As far as mammals are concerned, electromagnetic waves with frequencies close to the brain's biorhythms have the strongest effect. How these observations can be used to forecast earthquakes is discussed.

  6. Route based forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuurendonk, I. W.; Wokke, M. J. J.

    2009-09-01

    Road surface temperatures can differ several degrees on a very short distance due to local effects. In order to get more insight in the local temperature differences and to develop safer gritting routes, Meteogroup has developed a system for route based temperature forecasting. The standard version of the road model is addressed to forecast road surface temperature and condition for a specific location. This model consists of two parts. First a physical part, based on the energy balance equations. The second part of the model performs a statistical correction on the calculated physical road surface temperature. The road model is able to create a forecast for one specific location. From infrared measurements, we know that large local differences in road surface temperature exist on a route. Differences can be up to 5 degrees Celsius over a distance of several hundreds of meters. Based on those measurements, the idea came up to develop a system that forecasts road surface temperature and condition for an entire route: route based forecasting. The route is split up in sections with equal properties. For each section a temperature and condition will be calculated. The main factors that influence the road surface temperature are modelled in this forecasting system: •The local weather conditions: temperature, dew point temperature, wind, precipitation, weather type, cloudiness. •The sky view: A very sheltered place will receive less radiation during daytime and emit less radiation during nighttime. For a very open spot, the effects are reversed. •The solar view: A road section with trees on the southern side, will receive less solar radiation during daytime than a section with tress on the southern side. The route based forecast shows by means of a clear Google Maps presentation which sections will be slippery at what time of the coming night. The final goal of this type of forecast, is to make dynamical gritting possible: a variable salt amount and a different

  7. External Environmental Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapin, Joel D.

    Representing current viewpoints of academics, futures experts, and social observers, this external environmental forecast presents projections and information of particular relevance to the future of Catonsville Community College. The following topics are examined: (1) population changes and implications for higher education; (2) state and local…

  8. Forecasting Credit Hours.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bivin, David; Rooney, Patrick Michael

    1999-01-01

    This study used Tobit analysis to estimate retention probabilities and credit hours at two universities. Tobit was judged as appropriate for this problem because it recognizes the lower bound of zero on credit hours and incorporates this bound into parameter estimates and forecasts. Models are estimated for credit hours in a single year and…

  9. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  10. Survival Sales Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paradiso, James; Stair, Kenneth

    Intended to provide insight into the dynamics of demand analysis, this paper presents an eight-step method for forecasting sales. Focusing on sales levels that must be achieved to enjoy targeted profits in favor of the usual approach of emphasizing how much will be sold within a given period, a sample situation is provided to illustrate this…

  11. Forecasting Scientific - Technical Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vvedenskiy, T. A.; And Others

    This document contains three selections from the Russian-language journal "Nauchno-Teknicheskaya Informatsiya," Moscow. The first article is "Documentation for Technical Forecasts" by T. A. Vvedenskiy (Series 1, Number 11, 1969, submitted for publication 9 July 1968, p3-5). This article deals with the transformation of the method of scientific…

  12. Improving operational plume forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  13. Forecasting Mass Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dailey, Joseph M.

    In sorting through predictions about future communications, it should be kept in mind that if one can think of a communication technology in the future, then that communication technology will stand a very good chance of becoming a reality. In other words, the forecasting of invention is not separate from invention itself. Secondly, the inventions…

  14. Federal Forecasters Directory, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.

    This directory lists employees of the federal government who are involved in forecasting for policy formation and trend prediction purposes. Job title, agency, business address, phone or e-mail number, and specialty areas are listed for each employee. Employees are listed for the following agencies: (1) Bureau of the Census; (2) Bureau of Economic…

  15. Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheelwright, Steven C.; Clarke, Darral G.

    1976-01-01

    Discusses a survey of forecast preparers and users in 127 major companies in an attempt to assess underlying problems and identify areas for improvement. Concludes that forecasting responsibilities and tasks must be better defined and that forecast preparers and users must become better informed about one another's roles. (Author/JG)

  16. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  17. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  18. The forecaster's added value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  19. Satellite freeze forecast system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    Provisions for back-up operations for the satellite freeze forecast system are discussed including software and hardware maintenance and DS/1000-1V linkage; troubleshooting; and digitized radar usage. The documentation developed; dissemination of data products via television and the IFAS computer network; data base management; predictive models; the installation of and progress towards the operational status of key stations; and digital data acquisition are also considered. The d addition of dew point temperature into the P-model is outlined.

  20. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  1. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  2. Probabilistic forecast for climate change over Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Andrei; Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Scott, Jeffrey; Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, Adam

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on hydrological and carbon cycles. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and wetlands. Permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in wetlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. Since the IGSM includes a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting, for example, from different future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. The IGSM has long been used to perform probabilistic forecasts based on estimates of probability density functions of climate parameters. The MIT IGSM-CAM framework links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), with new modules developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations discussed in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios and three sets of climate parameters. The "business as usual" and a

  3. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  4. Global crop forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.; Hall, F. G.

    1980-01-01

    The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

  5. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, C.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Carr, S.; Sibeck, D. G.; Costello, K.; Freeman, J.; Balikhin, M.; Bechtold, K.; Vandegriff, J.

    2004-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely when the predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. In order to satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) model that inputs nowcast Kp, solar wind parameters, and predict Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) model with the same input as (1) and predict Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predict Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. The evaluations of the models over 2 solar cycles, 1975-2001, show that solar wind driven models predict Kp more accurately during solar maximum than solar minimum. This result, as well as information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics during solar minimum than solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and IMF.

  6. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Meng, C.-I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Bechtold, K.; Freeman, J.; Costello, K.; Balikhin, M.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-04-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hour ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  7. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Meng, C.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-05-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  8. Forecasting geomagnetic activity indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schofield, J.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.

    2007-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp and Dst forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Similar Dst models were developed. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  9. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  10. Consistency among microphysics-convection-radiation processes in a numerical forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bae, Soo Ya; Park, Raeseol; Hong, Song-You

    2016-04-01

    Radiative fluxes are mainly affected by the cloud optical properties calculated with effective radius, water path of hydrometeors, and cloud fraction. A prognostic cloud fraction scheme, which considers the cloud fraction with increments as a result of each physics process, is implemented in the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) (Park et al., 2016). However, the original RRTMG scheme does not consider the hydrometeor information from convection processes, resulting in inconsistency between cloud process and radiation activity. To ensure consistency among physics processes, the amount of hydrometeors from both the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and microphysics schemes is explicitly taken into account in computing radiative fluxes. The effects of this modification are tested for a heavy rainfall over Korea to identify the feedback between the precipitation and radiation processes. It is found that the information of hydrometeors from CPS tends to increase water path, which leads to larger cloud optical depth and cooling. Skill scores of the simulated precipitation in a medium-range forecast testbed confirm benefits of the consistent treatment of hydrometeors in both CPS and radiation processes.

  11. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  12. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  13. Solar Indices Forecasting Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, Carl John; Shurkin, Kathleen; Arge, Charles; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Progress to forecast key space weather parameters using SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model is highlighted in this presentation. Using a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT, we estimate the solar near-side field distribution that is used as input into empirical models for predicting F10.7(solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, and selected bands of solar far ultraviolet (FUV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes the inferred photospheric magnetic field from the NISP ground-based instruments, GONG & VSM. Besides a status update regarding ADAPT and SIFT models, we will summarize the findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The ADAPT model development is supported by AFRL. The input data utilized by ADAPT is obtained by NISP (NSO Integrated Synoptic Program). NSO is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), Inc., under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data service, utilized by the ADAPT/SIFT F10.7 forecasting model, is operated by the National Research Council of Canada and National Resources Canada, with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  14. Forecast Mekong: 2011 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

  15. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  16. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  17. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  18. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  19. Forecasting School District Fiscal Health.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    1986-01-01

    This paper's goal is to redefine fiscal health by broadening its predictive function and to determine which fiscal indicators are useful for forecasting fiscal health for one, two, and three years. Results indicate that school district fiscal health forecasts are potentially great planning tools for local for local decision makers. Includes 11…

  20. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  1. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  2. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  3. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  4. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, L.; Bessagnet, B.

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  5. Forecasts of geomagnetic secular variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wardinski, Ingo

    2014-05-01

    We attempt to forecast the geomagnetic secular variation based on stochastic models, non-parametric regression and singular spectrum analysis of the observed past field changes. Although this modelling approach is meant to be phenomenological, it may provide some insight into the mechanisms underlying typical time scales of geomagnetic field changes. We follow two strategies to forecast secular variation: Firstly, by applying time series models, and secondly, by using time-dependent kinematic models of the advected secular variation. These forecasts can span decades, to longer periods. This depends on the length of the past observations used as input, with different input models leading to different details in the forecasts. These forecasts become more uncertain over longer forecasting periods. One appealing reason is the disregard of magnetic diffusion in the kinematic modelling. But also the interactions of unobservable small scale core field with core flow at all scale unsettle the kinematic forecasting scheme. A further (obvious) reason is that geomagnetic secular variation can not be mimicked by linear time series models as the dynamo action itself is highly non-linear. Whether the dynamo action can be represented by a simple low-dimensional system requires further analysis.

  6. Characterizing the uncertainty in river stage forecasts conditional on point forecast values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Jun; Liao, Gong-Yi; Gebremichael, Mekonnen; Shedd, Robert; Vallee, David R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty information about river level forecast is as important as the forecast itself for forecast users. This paper presents a flexible, statistical approach that processes deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. The model is a smoothly changing conditional distribution of river stage given point forecast and other information available, such as lagged river level at the time of forecasting. The parametric distribution is a four-parameter skewt distribution, with each parameter modeled as a smooth function of the point forecast and the 1 day ago observed river level. The model was applied to 9 years of daily 6 h lead forecasts and 24 h lead forecasts in the warm season and their matching observations at the Plymouth station on the Pemigewasset River in New Hampshire. For each point forecast, the conditional distribution and resulting prediction intervals provide uncertainty information that are potentially very important to forecast users and algorithm developers in decision making and improvement of forecast quality.

  7. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Method Forecasts Global Energy Substitution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemical and Engineering News, 1975

    1975-01-01

    Describes a model developed to forecast energy demands and determine trends in demand for primary fuels. The energy model essentially considers primary energy sources as competing commodities in a market. (MLH)

  10. Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

  11. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  12. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  13. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  14. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Alfieri, L.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Daňhelka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stankūnavičius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

    2013-11-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  15. Fields, Flares, And Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucheron, L.; Al-Ghraibah, Amani; McAteer, J.; Cao, H.; Jackiewicz, J.; McNamara, B.; Voelz, D.; Calabro, B.; DeGrave, K.; Kirk, M.; Madadi, A.; Petsov, A.; Taylor, G.

    2011-05-01

    Solar active regions are the source of many energetic and geo-effective events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Understanding how these complex source regions evolve and produce these events is of fundamental importance, not only to solar physics, but also to the demands of space weather forecasting. We propose to investigate the physical properties of active region magnetic fields using fractal-, gradient-, neutral line-, emerging flux-, wavelet- and general image-based techniques, and to correlate them to solar activity. The combination of these projects with solarmonitor.org and the international Max Millenium Campaign presents an opportunity for accurate and timely flare predictions for the first time. Many studies have attempted to relate solar flares to their concomitant magnetic field distributions. However, a consistent, causal relationship between the magnetic field on the photosphere and the production of solar flares is unknown. Often the local properties of the active region magnetic field - critical in many theories of activity - are lost in the global definition of their diagnostics, in effect smoothing out variations that occur on small spatial scales. Mindful of this, our overall goal is to create measures that are sensitive to both the global and the small-scale nature of energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere in order to study solar flare prediction. This set of active region characteristics will be automatically explored for discriminating features through the use of feature selection methods. Such methods search a feature space while optimizing a criterion - the prediction of a flare in this case. The large size of the datasets used in this project make it well suited for an exploration of a large feature space. This work is funded through a New Mexico State University Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

  16. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  17. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

  18. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  19. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  20. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  1. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  2. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  3. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  4. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  5. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  6. Forecasting improves for polar lows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thanks to a 3-year research program recently concluded by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo, Norwegian meteorologists are better able to forecast the intense low-pressure phenomena that threaten the safety of the country's coastal areas during the winter season.During the course of the program, meteorologists developed and tested “objective forecasting methods,” as well as a numerical model suitable for small-scale weather phenomena. They also improved the processing of satellite data, and gained experience with the observing systems used, according to a bulletin prepared by the institute. The monitoring and forecasting systems should improve as the observation network improves and as the mesoscale numerical model is refined, explained Arne Grammeltvedt, director of the institute.

  7. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  8. Acquisition forecast: Fiscal year 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This volume includes projections of all anticipated FY95, and beyond, NASA contract actions above $25,000 that small and small disadvantaged businesses may be able to perform under direct contract with the government or as subcontractors. The forecast consolidates anticipated procurements at each NASA center into an agencywide report, with the aim of increasing industries' advance knowledge of NASA requirements and enhancing competition in contracting. Each center forecast report is divided into three principal categories of procurement: research and development, services, and supplies and equipment.

  9. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  10. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  11. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  12. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  13. Newsletter. Social and Human Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Istituto Ricerche Applicate Documentazione e Studi, Rome (Italy).

    The newsletter is not only a means of information on social and human forecasting but, moreover, a way of world intercommunication on the topic. Typical issues include current announcements and information (written primarily in English but also in other languages with English translations provided) on: 1) aims, intentions, and activities of…

  14. Military needs and forecast, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldstayn, Alan B.

    1986-01-01

    FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.

  15. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  16. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  17. Understanding and Forecasting Ethnolinguistic Vitality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karan, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting of ethnolinguistic vitality can only be done within a well-functioning descriptive and explanatory model of the dynamics of language stability and shift. It is proposed that the Perceived Benefit Model of Language Shift, used with a taxonomy of language shift motivations, provides that model. The model, based on individual language…

  18. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  19. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  20. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  1. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  2. Methodological Problems in the Forecasting of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostanian, S. L.

    1978-01-01

    Examines how forecasting of educational development in the Soviet Union can be coordinated with forecasts of scientific and technical progress. Predicts that the efficiency of social forecasting will increase when more empirical data on macro- and micro-processes is collected. (Author/DB)

  3. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  4. Possible future directions in crop yield forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.

    1979-01-01

    This paper examines present and future possible applications of remote sensing to crop yield forecasting. It is concluded that there are ways in which Landsat data could be used to assist in crop yield forecasting using present technology. A framework for global crop yield forecasting which uses remote sensing, meteorological, field and ancillary data, as available, is proposed for the future.

  5. Use of Financial Forecasting in Educational Retrenchment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chabotar, Kent John

    1987-01-01

    Demonstrates local government's use of alternative forecasting techniques in school planning and retrenchment. Argues that forecasting is an art blending academic and political concerns. While statistical techniques and historical data are useful forecasting tools, the most significant influence should be school officials' plans and preferences.…

  6. Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, Peter

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity fields. This barotropic forecast has been repeated and extended using a global numerical model, and the results are presented in this paper. Richardson's conclusions regarding the use of geostrophic winds as initial data are reconsidered.An analysis of Richardson's data into normal modes shows that almost 85% of the energy is accounted for by a single eigenmode, the gravest symmetric rotational Hough mode, which travels westward with a period of about five days. This five-day wave has been detected in analyses of stratospheric data. It is striking that the fields chosen by Richardson on considerations of smoothness should so closely resemble a natural oscillation of the atmosphere.The numerical model employed in this study uses an implicit differencing technique, which is stable for large time steps. The numerical instability that would have destroyed Richardson's barotropic forecast, had it been extended, is thereby circumvented. It is sometimes said that computational instability was the cause of the failure of Richardson's baroclinic forecast, for which he obtained a pressure tendency value two orders of magnitude too large. However, the initial tendency is independent of the time step (at least for the explicit scheme used by Richardson). In fact, the spurious tendency resulted from the presence of unrealistically large high-frequency gravity-wave components in the initial fields.High-frequency oscillations are also found in the evolution starting from the idealized data in the barotropic forecast. They are shown to be due to the gravity-wave components of the initial data. These oscillations may be removed by a slight modification of the initial fields. This initialization is effected by means of a simple digital filtering

  7. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  8. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  9. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, P. S. M.; Assink, J. D.; Le Pichon, A.; Evers, L. G.

    2016-05-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near-continuous infrasound from the volcano Mount Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire time span the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity of the predicted wavefront characteristics with a minimal back azimuth difference. Best performance for all forecasts is obtained in summer. The difference between the infrasound observations and the predictions based on the forecasts is significantly larger during the 2013 SSW period for all forecasts. Simulations show that the SSW onset is better captured by the 10 day forecast while the recovery is better captured by the nowcast.

  10. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  11. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  12. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  13. Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Teper, Rimma; Tullett, Alexa M; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Inzlicht, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Research in moral decision making has shown that there may not be a one-to-one relationship between peoples' moral forecasts and behaviors. Although past work suggests that physiological arousal may account for part of the behavior-forecasting discrepancy, whether or not perceptions of affect play an important determinant remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether this discrepancy may arise because people fail to anticipate how they will feel in morally significant situations. In Study 1, forecasters predicted cheating significantly more on a test than participants in a behavior condition actually cheated. Importantly, forecasters who received false somatic feedback, indicative of high arousal, produced forecasts that aligned more closely with behaviors. In Study 2, forecasters who misattributed their arousal to an extraneous source forecasted cheating significantly more. In Study 3, higher dispositional emotional awareness was related to less forecasted cheating. These findings suggest that perceptions of affect play a key role in the behavior-forecasting dissociation. PMID:25900823

  14. Improving Forecasts for Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Wood, Andy; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Schaake, John

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate predictions provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach toward water management. This motivated a recent AGU Chapman Conference (see program details at http://chapman.agu.org/watermanagement/). Approximately 85 participants from the United States, Oceania, Asia, Europe, and South America presented and discussed the current state of successes, challenges, and opportunities in seasonal to interannual hydroclimate forecasts and water management, and a number of key messages emerged.

  15. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  16. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  17. Scorecard on winter weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    A comparison of the observed temperatures and precipitation for this past winter (maps on left) with predicted temperatures and precipitation (maps on right) shows that the National Weather Service (NWS) temperature prediction was below par, but that the NWS precipitation forecast was ‘quite good,’ according to Don L. Gilman, chief of the NWS long-range forecast branch. The predictions, issued November 29, 1982 (Eos, December 14, 1982, p. 1211), covered December, January, and February.NWS long-range forecasters had thought that frigid Arctic air would swoop far south to bring below-normal temperatures to the western United States. Instead, an east Pacific trough, which may have been the strongest since 1900, brought a strong influx of air from the west, according to Gilman. The intense, low-pressure anomaly in the east Pacific, with the strong westerly winds, teamed with heavy rains south and southwest of Hawaii and warm equatorial Pacific waters to bring warm, wet air to the western United States. The results (see maps): Throughout most of the country, observed temperatures were above normal (A) or normal (N), while observed precipitation was heavy (H) o r normal (no code). Below-normal temperatures (B) occurred only in a portion of the southcentral U.S. and the Florida Keys. Light precipitation (L) fell over two patches in the northern plains, in the Appalachian region, and along the Maine coast.

  18. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  19. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  20. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  1. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  2. Grim Job Talks Are a Buzz Kill

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shapiro, Dan

    2012-01-01

    This article takes a look at five mistakes that candidates should avoid making during their research presentations. These mistakes are the following: (1) they didn't do any research on the norms of the campus culture; (2) they presented a single, well-thought-out project that had no future; (3) they didn't use the opportunity to demonstrate their…

  3. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smets, Pieter; Assink, Jelle; Le Pichon, Alexis; Evers, Läslo

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere--troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near continuous infrasound from Mt. Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire timespan the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity and and smaller bearing difference. However, focussing on the period around the 2013 major SSW shows that while the SSW onset is better captured by the ten day forecast, the recovery is better captured by the nowcast. As such, this study demonstrates the use of infrasound in the evaluation of middle atmospheric weather forecasts and therefore its potential in the assessment of tropospheric forecast skill.

  4. Evaluation of seasonal forecast skill over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roads, John O.; Chen, Shyh-Chin

    2003-06-01

    Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal time scales, are provided on the World Wide Web, and experimental digital forecast products are made available to international collaborators. Over Asia, these experimental forecasts are now being used to drive regional prediction and various application models at National Taiwan University (NTU) and the Hong Kong Observatory. Roads et al. [Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82 (2001) 639] and Terra Chen et al. [Atmos. Oceanogr. Sci. 12 (2003a) 377] previously discussed the basic forecast and analysis system. The purpose of this paper is to discuss specific synoptic characteristics of recent seasonal forecasts as a guide to further application and development.

  5. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  6. How rolling forecasting facilitates dynamic, agile planning.

    PubMed

    Miller, Debra; Allen, Michael; Schnittger, Stephanie; Hackman, Theresa

    2013-11-01

    Rolling forecasting may be used to replace or supplement the annual budget process. The rolling forecast typically builds on the organization's strategic financial plan, focusing on the first three years of plan projections and comparing the strategic financial plan assumptions with the organization's expected trajectory. Leaders can then identify and respond to gaps between the rolling forecast and the strategic financial plan on an ongoing basis. PMID:24340653

  7. Operational Short-Term Flood Forecasting for Bangladesh: Application of ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Beginning in 2003, we have been disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble weather forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the multi-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.

  8. Optimized Flood Forecasts Using a Statistical Enemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silver, Micha; Fredj, Erick

    2016-04-01

    The method presented here assembles an optimized flood forecast from a set of consecutive WRF-Hydro simulations by applying coefficients which we derive from straightforward statistical procedures. Several government and research institutions that produce climate data offer ensemble forecasts, which merge predictions from different models to gain a more accurate fit to observed data. Existing ensemble forecasts present climate and weather predictions only. In this research we propose a novel approach to constructing hydrological ensembles for flood forecasting. The ensemble flood forecast is created by combining predictions from the same model, but initiated at different times. An operative flood forecasting system, run by the Israeli Hydrological Service, produces flood forecasts twice daily with a 72 hour forecast period. By collating the output from consecutive simulation runs we have access to multiple overlapping forecasts. We then apply two statistical procedures to blend these consecutive forecasts, resulting in a very close fit to observed flood runoff. We first employ cross-correlation with a time lag to determine a time shift for each of the original, consecutive forecasts. This shift corrects for two possible sources of error: slow or fast moving weather fronts in the base climate data; and mis-calibrations of the WRF-Hydro model in determining the rate of flow of surface runoff and in channels. We apply this time shift to all consecutive forecasts, then run a linear regression with the observed runoff data as the dependent variable and all shifted forecasts as the predictor variables. The solution to the linear regression equation is a set of coefficients that corrects the amplitude errors in the forecasts. These resulting regression coefficients are then applied to the consecutive forecasts producing a statistical ensemble which, by design, closely matches the observed runoff. After performing this procedure over many storm events in the Negev region

  9. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  10. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  11. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  12. Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colwell, J. E.; Rice, D. P.; Nalepka, R. F.

    1977-01-01

    Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.

  13. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  14. Forecasting California’s earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kerr, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    For the first time, researchers have reached to a consensus on the threat of large earthquakes to California, things look no worse for Los Angles than before. It still has about a 60 percent chance of being shaken by a large earthquake sometime during the next 30 years. But other heavily populated areas of California, such as San Bernardino and the East Bay area of San Francisco, are now getting their fair share of attention. The new consensus also points up the considerable uncertainties invloved in earthquake forecasting

  15. Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, Janine

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

  16. Mental Models of Software Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Griesel, A.; Bruno, K.; Fouser, T.; Tausworthe, R.

    1993-01-01

    The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

  17. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

  18. Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2013-02-01

    AbstractWe assess the seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of pan-Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system that includes interactive atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice components. <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> skill is quantified by the correlation skill score computed from 12 month ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> initialized in each month between January 1979 to December 2009. We find that <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is substantial for all lead times and predicted seasons except spring but is mainly due to the strong downward trend in observations for lead times of about 4 months and longer. Skill is higher when evaluated against an observation-based dataset with larger trends. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill when linear trends are removed from the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and verifying observations is small and generally not statistically significant at lead times greater than 2 to 3 months, except for January/February when <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is moderately high up to an 11 month lead time. For short lead times, high trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill is found for October, while low skill is found for November/December. This is consistent with the seasonal variation of observed lag correlations. For most predicted months and lead times, trend-independent <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill exceeds that of an anomaly persistence <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, highlighting the potential for dynamical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> systems to provide valuable seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992JApMe..31..465Y"><span id="translatedtitle">A Streamflow <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model for Central Arizona.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Young, Kenneth C.; Gall, Robert L.</p> <p>1992-05-01</p> <p>A spring-runoff <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model for central Arizona was developed based on multiple discriminant analysis. More than 6500 potential predictor variables were analyzed, including local precipitation and temperature variables, as well as global sea level pressure variables. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was evaluated on nine years exclusive of the years on which the model was based. <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> are provided in the form of a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the expected runoff, based on analogs. A ranked probability score to evaluate <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill for the cdf <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> was developed. Ranked probability skill scores ranged from 25% to 45%.Local and global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models were developed and compared to the combined data source model. The global <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model was equivalent in skill to the local <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model. The combined model exhibited a marked improvement in skill over either the local or global models.Three recurrent patterns in the predictor variables used by the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model are analyzed in some depth. Above-normal pressure at Raoul Island northeast of New Zealand 14 to 18 months prior to the event <span class="hlt">forecast</span> was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. A westward shift of the Bermuda high, as evidenced by the pressure change at Charleston, South Carolina, from December to August of the preceding year, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. Above-normal pressure at Port Moresby, New Guinea coupled with below-normal pressure at San Diego, California, the month prior to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE..68W"><span id="translatedtitle">Improved low visibility <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> at Amsterdam Airport</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wijngaard, J.; Vogelezang, D.; Maat, N.; van Bruggen, H.</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>Accurate, reliable and unambiguous information concerning the actual and expected (low) visibility conditions at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is very important for the available operational flow capacity. Therefore visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> errors can have a negative impact on safety and operational expenses. KNMI has performed an update of the visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system in close collaboration with the main users of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (Air Traffic Control, the airport authorities and KLM airlines). This automatic <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system consists of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (Hirlam) with a statistical post processing module on top of it. Output of both components is supplied to a human <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> who issues a special probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecast</span> bulletin. This bulletin is tailored to the specific requirements of the airport community. The improvements made to the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system are twofold: 1) In addition to the Meteorological Optical Range (MOR) values, RVR (Runway Visual Range) is <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Since RVR depends on both MOR and the local Background Luminance, a (deterministic) statistical <span class="hlt">forecast</span> for the latter has been developed. 2) Another improvement was achieved by calculating joint probabilities for specific combinations of visibility and cloud base height for thresholds which have direct impact on the flow capacity at the airport. The development of this new visibility <span class="hlt">forecast</span> will be presented briefly. Also a few verification results will be shown to demonstrate the improvements made. Finally, the importance of explaining the user the use of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> information, in relation to their decision making process, will be discussed. For that reason, a simple guideline model to make a cost-optimal choice will be introduced.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..538..754M"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> using functional regression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..813A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJBm...57..813A"><span id="translatedtitle">Phantosmia as a meteorological <span class="hlt">forecaster</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aiello, S. R.; Hirsch, A. R.</p> <p>2013-09-01</p> <p>In normosmics, olfactory ability has been found to vary with ambient humidity, barometric pressure, and season. While hallucinated sensations of phantom pain associated with changes in weather have been described, a linkage to chemosensory hallucinations has heretofore not been reported. A 64-year-old white male with Parkinson's disease presents with 5 years of phantosmia of a smoky burnt wood which changed to onion-gas and then to a noxious skunk-onion excrement odor. Absent upon waking it increases over the day and persists for hours. When severe, there appears a phantom taste with the same qualities as the odor. It is exacerbated by factors that manipulate intranasal pressure, such as coughing. When eating or sniffing, the actual flavors replace the phantosmia. Since onset, he noted the intensity and frequency of the phantosmia <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> the weather. Two to 3 h before a storm, the phantosmia intensifies from a level 0 to a 7-10, which persists through the entire thunderstorm. Twenty years prior, he reported the ability to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the weather, based on pain in a torn meniscus, which vanished after surgical repair. Extensive olfactory testing demonstrates underlying hyposmia. Possible mechanisms for such chemosensory-meteorological linkage includes: air pressure induced synesthesia, disinhibition of spontaneous olfactory discharge, exacerbation of ectopic discharge, affect mediated somatic sensory amplification, and misattribution error with expectation and recall bias. This is the first reported case of weather-induced exacerbation of phantosmia. Further investigation of the connection between chemosensory complaints and ambient weather is warranted.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.2307T"><span id="translatedtitle">Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and <span class="hlt">Forecast</span>)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsiapas, E.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND <span class="hlt">FORECAST</span>) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 tsiapas@hol.gr The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMGC11H1110M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Modeled <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data as meteorological input, we produced weekly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data to generate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of DF case numbers. Real-time weather <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data was produced using the Weather Research and <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF <span class="hlt">forecast</span> being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span>. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AdG....29...77S"><span id="translatedtitle">The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems across England and Wales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>Operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems share a fundamental challenge: <span class="hlt">forecast</span> uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecast</span> used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in support of probabilistic flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>. Although ensemble rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems can provide better information to the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> than use of the deterministic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=300991"><span id="translatedtitle">Climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> for corn producer decision making</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/services/TekTran.htm">Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, could substantially reduce uncertai...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046866"><span id="translatedtitle">Chesapeake Bay hypoxic volume <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The 2013 <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> - Given the average Jan-May 2013 total nitrogen load of 162,028 kg/day, this summer’s hypoxia volume <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is 6.1 km3, slightly smaller than average size for the period of record and almost the same as 2012. The late July 2013 measured volume was 6.92 km3.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ARIMA&id=EJ842702"><span id="translatedtitle">Some Initiatives in a Business <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Course</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Chu, Singfat</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+forecasting&pg=4&id=EJ547715"><span id="translatedtitle">Methods and Techniques of Revenue <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Caruthers, J. Kent; Wentworth, Cathi L.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>Revenue <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713443H"><span id="translatedtitle">Flood <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> in Wales: Challenges and Solutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models. As a flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> team we work to develop coastal and fluvial <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> verification • ensemble <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • longer range <span class="hlt">forecast</span> data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002AGUFM.H12G..03W&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating <span class="hlt">forecast</span> performance. Verification of the ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=wind&pg=5&id=EJ1064476"><span id="translatedtitle">School Science Inspired by Improving Weather <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other <span class="hlt">forecast</span> providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......268A"><span id="translatedtitle">Solar power deployment: <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> and planning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alanazi, Mohana</p> <p></p> <p>The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance <span class="hlt">forecasting</span>. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. The method converts the data sets included in the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> method aims to reduce the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016Nonli..29.2888Z&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with dynamics-adapted kernels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methods which improve traditional analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED082497.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">A Delphi <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of Technology in Education.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Robinson, Burke E.</p> <p></p> <p>The <span class="hlt">forecast</span> reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Overpopulation&pg=3&id=EJ078615"><span id="translatedtitle">Resources and Long-Range <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Smith, Waldo E.</p> <p>1973-01-01</p> <p>The author argues that <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5347900"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecast</span> of geothermal-drilling activity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.</p> <p>1982-07-01</p> <p>The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are <span class="hlt">forecasted</span>. Results of the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED340733.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.</p> <p></p> <p>The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730024131"><span id="translatedtitle">Techniques for <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> Air Passenger Traffic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Taneja, N.</p> <p>1972-01-01</p> <p>The basic techniques of <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoJI.181..382Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhuang, Jiancang</p> <p>2010-04-01</p> <p>This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> makes a prediction or <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the <span class="hlt">forecaster</span> become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2892H"><span id="translatedtitle">Monthly <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> of agricultural pests in Switzerland</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> is issued, but only a climatology for the <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> model. Results show a clear improvement in the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1816659F&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation and first <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> of the German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System 1 (GCFS1)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>We present the near-operational seasonal <span class="hlt">forecast</span> system GCFS1 (German Climate <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-<span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 15 member and a <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ensemble of 30 member. The re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-<span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-<span class="hlt">forecasted</span> climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter <span class="hlt">forecast</span> during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997evwc.book.....K"><span id="translatedtitle">Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.</p> <p>1997-06-01</p> <p>Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate <span class="hlt">Forecasts</span> seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/103301"><span id="translatedtitle">Load <span class="hlt">forecast</span> and need for power</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p></p> <p>1995-10-01</p> <p>This portion of the Energy Vision 2020 draft report discusses the models used for <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the load growth over the period of this report. To deal with uncertainties in load growth, TVA has used a range of <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>: low, medium, and high. Based on the medium <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, TVA has determined that an additional 800 MWe will be required by 1998 and 16,500 MWe by 2020. based on the high growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, additional power will be needed in 1997 and increasing thereafter. Based on the low growth <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, no additional capacity would be needed during the period of this report. These estimates include a reserve margin of 15% through 1997, 13% average through the period 1998 to 2010, and 12% average during the remainder of the reporting period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/13795"><span id="translatedtitle">Uncertainty in dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> using meteorological ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Chin, H N; Leach, M J</p> <p>1999-07-12</p> <p>The usefulness of dispersion <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological <span class="hlt">forecast</span>, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to estimate the uncertainty in the <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and the range of possible outcomes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESSD...913569R"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2013HESS...17.2219R&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Do probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> lead to better decisions?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic <span class="hlt">forecasts</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.G33A0831S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> the Chilean Tsunami, February 27 2010</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sterling, K.; Knight, W.; Whitmore, P.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for issuing tsunami warnings, advisories, and watches for the United States and Canadian coastlines. Utilizing well defined criteria related to earthquake magnitude and location an initial alert message is transmitted. The situation is monitored closely and analyzed using <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models and real-time sea level observations. If a tsunami is detected then a tsunami warning, advisory, or watch is issued. On February 27, 2010 at 06:34:14 UTC, a M8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Maule, Chile, initiating a tsunami that propagated throughout the Pacific Ocean. With approximately 13 hours before the tsunami arrived on the US west coast, the WC/ATWC utilized all available <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> tools to refine predicted tsunami amplitudes and inundation estimates, thereby providing the best possible estimates to emergency managers and the public. The guidance from the tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models, used in concurrence with sea-level observations, resulted in a tsunami advisory being issued for the Pacific coastal regions of the United States and Canada, the extent of which was expanded and then decreased as the event evolved. The WC/ATWC used two tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> models: the Alaska Tsunami <span class="hlt">Forecast</span> Model (ATFM) and the Short-term Inundation <span class="hlt">Forecasting</span> for Tsunamis (SIFT) to formulate a solution. Each model provided an initial tsunami <span class="hlt">forecast</span> based on the earthquake magnitude and location that was subsequently refined over the following hours as Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) observations became available. After the DART data was assimilated into the models, the two <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> were used in conjunction to publicly issue predicted maximum amplitudes for 77 locations along the US west coast and in Alaska. As the tsunami reached the US coastline, tide gauge observations were used in scaling the <span class="hlt">forecasted</span> maximum amplitudes from the ATFM, thereby increasing the <span class="hlt">forecast</span> accuracy</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/698698"><span id="translatedtitle">Guideline for developing an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dye, T.S.; MacDonald, C.P.; Anderson, C.B.</p> <p>1999-07-01</p> <p>The purpose of this document is to provide guidance to help air quality agencies develop, operate, and evaluate ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> programs. This guidance document provides: Background information about ozone and the weather`s effect on ozone; A list of how ozone <span class="hlt">forecasts</span> are currently used; A summary and evaluation of methods currently used to <span class="hlt">forecast</span> ozone; and Steps you can follow to develop and operate an ozone <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. The intended audience of this document is project managers, meteorologists, air quality analysts, and data analysts. Project managers can learn about the level of effort needed to set up and operate a <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> program. Meteorologists can learn about the various methods to predict ozone and the steps needed to create a program.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006SPIE.6358E..54C&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> model based on CRM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand <span class="hlt">forecast</span> of customer relationship management, the traditional <span class="hlt">forecast</span> methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that <span class="hlt">forecasting</span> the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and <span class="hlt">forecast</span> the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <center> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted"><small>Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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