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Sample records for idealized tropical cyclone

  1. Multi-model GCM ensemble simulations of idealized tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Taylor, M.; Nair, R.

    2013-12-01

    As General Circulation Models (GCMs) are now capable of running operationally at higher horizontal resolutions than ever before, such models have become a tool of choice for the evaluation of tropical cyclones in current and future climate conditions. GCM horizontal resolutions in the range between 10-50 km are now computationally achievable for seasonal or multi-year simulations and there is growing confidence that high-resolution global models provide reliable representations of many characteristics of tropical storms. However, model design choices are an important source of uncertainty. This is widely documented for physical parameterization suites, but it is less recognized for the dynamical component of models and the physics-dynamics coupling. The study offers a first look into these structural uncertainties. This study focuses on dynamical core model intercomparisons. In particular, it looks at the results of the Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) that took place at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in August 2012. The analysis is focused on the evaluation of an idealized tropical storm and uncertainties triggered by the choice of model dynamical core formulation in various global models. These models include the four dynamical cores available in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (Finite-Volume (FV), Spectral-Element (SE) and the Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian spectral transform dynamical cores), the NOAA model FIM, the model ICON (Max-Planck Institute and German Weather Service), GFDL's FV3 model on the cubed-sphere grid, ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the model PUMA from the University of Hamburg.

  2. Tropical cyclone formation

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, M.T.; Farrell, B.F. )

    1993-01-15

    The physics of tropical cyclone formation is not well understood, and more is known about the mature hurricane than the formative mechanisms that produce it. It is believed part of the reason for this can be traced to insufficient upper-level atmospheric data. Recent observations suggest that tropical cyclones are initiated by asymmetric interactions associated with migratory upper-level potential vorticity disturbances and low-level disturbances. Favored theories of cyclones formation, however, focus on internal processes associated with cumulus convection and/or air-sea interaction. This work focuses on external mechanisms of cyclone formation and, using both a two- and three-dimensional moist geostrophic momentum model, investigates the role of upper-level potential vorticity disturbances on the formation process. A conceptual model of tropical cyclone formation is proposed, and implications of the theory are discussed. 71 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Nargis: 2008

    NASA Video Gallery

    This new animation, developed with the help of NASA's Pleiades supercomputer, illustrates how tropical cyclone Nargis formed in the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal over several days in late April 2008...

  4. Grey swan tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    We define `grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological-hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100-1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500-1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.

  5. Simulation of the electrification of a tropical cyclone using the WRF-ARW model: An idealized case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Liangtao; Zhang, Yijun; Wang, Fei; Zheng, Dong

    2014-06-01

    Evolution of the electrification of an idealized tropical cyclone (TC) is simulated by using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The model was modified by addition of explicit electrification and a new bulk discharge scheme. The characteristics of TC lightning is further examined by analyses of the electrification and the charge structure of the TC. The findings thus obtained are able to unify most of the previous inconsisitent observational and simulation studies. The results indicate that the TC eyewall generally exhibits an inverted dipole charge structure with negative charge above the positive. In the intensification stage, however, the extremely tall towers of the eyewall may exhibit a normal tripole structure with a main negative region between two regions of positive charge. The outer spiral rainband cells display a simple normal dipole structure during all the stages. It is further found that the differences in the charge structure are associated with different updrafts and particle distributions. Weak updrafts, together with a coexistence region of different particles at lower levels in the eyewall, result in charging processes that occur mainly in the positive graupel charging zone (PGCZ). In the intensification stage, the occurrence of charging processes in both positive and negative graupel charging zones is associated with strong updraft in the extremely tall towers. In addition, the coexistence region of graupel and ice crystals is mainly situated at upper levels in the outer rainband, so the charging processes mainly occur in the negative graupel charging zone (NGCZ).

  6. Effects of Landfall Location and Approach Angle of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone over a Long Mountain Range

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Chen, Shu-Hua

    2016-02-01

    Effects of landfall location and approach angle on track deflection associated with a tropical cyclone (TC) passing over an idealized and Central Appalachian Mountain is investigated by a series of idealized numerical experiments. When the TC landfalls on the central portion of the mountain range, it is deflected to the south upstream, passes over the mountain anticyclonically, and then moves westward downstream. The TC motion is steered by the positive vorticity tendency (VT) which is dominated by horizontal vorticity advection upstream and downstream, but with additional influence from the stretching and residual terms, which are mainly associated with diabatic heating and frictional effects. The track deflection mechanism upstream and downstream is similar to the dry flow in previous study, but is very different in the vicinity of the mountain. When the TC landfalls near the northern (southern) tip, it experiences less (more) southward deflection due to stronger (weaker) vorticity advection around the tip. When the TC approaches the mountain range from the southeast and landfalls on the northern tip, center, or southern tip, the track deflections are similar to those embedded in an easterly flow but with weaker orographic blocking. These results are similar to the cases simulated in the dry flow in previous study, except that there is no track discontinuity due to the weaker orographic blocking associated with strong TC convection. When a TC moves along the north-south mountain range from the south, it tends to deflect toward the mountain and then crosses over to the other side at later time. In these cases, the positive VT is influenced by all horizontal vorticity advection, vorticity stretching (diabatic heating) and residual (friction) terms due to longer and stronger interaction with the mountain range. The vorticity stretching is mainly caused by diabatic heating in the moist flow, instead of by lee slope vorticity stretching in the previous study for dry

  7. Assessing Tropical Cyclone Damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Czajkowski, J.

    2012-12-01

    Landfalling tropical cyclones impact large coastal and inland areas causing direct damage due to winds, storm-surge flooding, tornadoes, and precipitation; as well as causing substantial indirect damage such as electrical outages and business interruption. The likely climate change impact of increased tropical cyclone intensity, combined with increases in exposure, bring the possibility of increased damage in the future. A considerable amount of research has focused on modeling economic damage due to tropical cyclones, and a series of indices have been developed to assess damages under climate change. We highlight a number of ways this research can be improved through a series of case study analyses. First, historical loss estimates are revisited to properly account for; time, impacted regions, the source of damage by type, and whether the damage was direct/indirect and insured/uninsured. Second, the drivers of loss from both the socio-economic and physical side are examined. A case is made to move beyond the use of maximum wind speed to more stable metrics and the use of other characteristics of the wind field such as direction, degree of gustiness, and duration is explored. A novel approach presented here is the potential to model losses directly as a function of climate variables such as sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and aerosols. This work is the first stage in the development of a tropical cyclone loss model to enable projections of losses under scenarios of both socio-economic change (such as population migration or altered policy) and physical change (such as shifts in tropical cyclone activity one from basin to another or within the same basin).

  8. Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Holland, Greg J.; Webster, Peter J.

    Vigorous discussions have taken place recently in Eos [e.g., Mann and Emanuel, 2006; Landsea, 2007] and elsewhere [Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005; Hoyos et al., 2006; Trenberth and Shea, 2006; Kossin et al., 2007] regarding trends in North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their potential connection with anthropogenic climate change. In one study, for example [Landsea, 2007], it is argued that a substantial underestimate of Atlantic tropical cyclone counts in earlier decades arising from insufficient observing systems invalidates the conclusion that trends in TC behavior may be connected to climate change. Here we argue that such connections are in fact robust with respect to uncertainties in earlier observations.Several recent studies have investigated trends in various measures of TC activity. Emanuel [2005] showed that a measure of total power dissipation by TCs (the power dissipation index, or PDI) is highly correlated with August-October sea surface temperatures (SST) over the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic TCs over at least the past half century. Some support for this conclusion was provided by Sriver and Ruber [2006]. Webster et al. [2005] demonstrated a statistically significant increase in recent decades in both the total number of the strongest category cyclones (categories 4 and 5) and the proportion of storms reaching hurricane intensity. Hoyos et al. [2006] showed that these increases were closely tied to warming trends in tropical Atlantic SST, while, for example, the modest decrease in vertical wind shear played a more secondary role. Kossin et al. [2007] called into question some trends in other basins, based on a reanalysis of past TC data, but they found the North Atlantic trends to be robust.

  9. Tropical Cyclone Indlala

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    On March 14, 2007, storm-weary Madagascar braced for its fourth land-falling tropical cyclone in as many months. Cyclone Indlala was hovering off the island's northeast coast when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this photo-like image at 1:40 p.m. local time (10:40 UTC). Just over a hundred kilometers offshore, the partially cloudy eye at the heart of the storm seems like a vast drain sucking in a disk of swirling clouds. According to reports from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued less than three hours after MODIS captured this image, Indlala had winds of 115 knots (132 miles per hour), with gusts up to 140 knots (161 mph). Wave heights were estimated to be 36 feet. At the time of the report, the storm was predicted to intensify through the subsequent 12-hour period, to turn slightly southwest, and to strike eastern Madagascar as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds up to 125 knots (144 mph), and gusts up to 150 knots (173 mph). According to Reuters AlertNet news service, Madagascar's emergency response resources were taxed to their limit in early March 2007 as a result of extensive flooding in the North, drought and food shortages in the South, and three previous hits from cyclones in the preceding few months: Bondo in December 2006, Clovis in January 2007, and Gamede in February.

  10. Tropical Cyclone Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

    2009-01-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

  11. Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourville, Natalie D.

    CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms

  12. Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad

  13. APR-2 Tropical Cyclone Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durden, S. L.; Tanelli, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Second Generation Airborne Precipitation Radar (APR-2) participated in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in August and September of 2010, collecting a large volume of data in several tropical systems, including Hurricanes Earl and Karl. Additional measurements of tropical cyclone have been made by APR-2 in experiments prior to GRIP (namely, CAMEX-4, NAMMA, TC4); Table 1 lists all the APR-2 tropical cyclone observations. The APR-2 observations consist of the vertical structure of rain reflectivity at 13.4 and 35.6 GHz, and at both co-polarization and crosspolarization, as well as vertical Doppler measurements and crosswind measurements. APR-2 normally flies on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, as in GRIP, collecting data with a downward looking, cross-track scanning geometry. The scan limits are 25 degrees on either side of the aircraft, resulting in a roughly 10-km swath, depending on the aircraft altitude. Details of the APR-2 observation geometry and performance can be found in Sadowy et al. (2003).The multiparameter nature of the APR-2 measurements makes the collection of tropical cyclone measurements valuable for detailed studies of the processes, microphysics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, as well as weaker systems that are associated with tropical cyclone formation. In this paper, we give a brief overview of how the APR-2 data are processed. We also discuss use of the APR-2 cross-track winds to estimate various quantities of interest in in studies of storm intensification. Finally, we show examples of the standard products and derived information.

  14. Structure of Developing Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, J. E.

    2006-12-01

    Considerable progress has been made in the numerical modeling of tropical cyclones. The very high resolution now routinely used in research models allows realistic simulation of eyewall structure and breakdown, vortex Rossby waves, and numerous other processes that were beyond the capability of previous generations of models. At least one aspect of tropical cyclones, however, has not been reproduced in the current generation of models: early development (or lack of development) during tropical depression and early tropical storm stages. During such times, vertical wind shear often plays a critical role. In this presentation, details of the structure of four tropical cyclones at early stages will be given: Claudette (2003), Danny (1997), Gabrielle (2001), and Edouard (2002). The first three contained intense vortices that formed within downshear convection. Deep-layer vertical wind shear ranged from 8-15 m/s in the storms. In Claudette, a hurricane formed that lasted only 6 hours. In Danny and Gabrielle, the downshear vortices became the new storm center. One became a hurricane and one did not. In Edouard, vertical shear was even larger. Convection fluctuated between downshear of the center and over the center, with analogous intensity changes. This behavior is known to forecasters, but the causes of such fluctuations remain uncertain. The evolving structure of these four storms will be shown, with emphasis on the variation of convection, equivalent potential temperature in the lower troposphere, and azimuthal asymmetries of wind and circulation. Contrast will be made between the structure of forming tropical cyclones in nature and those seen in mesoscale numerical models. Some remarks will be given on the key physical processes that must be simulated.

  15. Idealized simulations of sting jet cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, L. H.; Gray, S. L.; Clark, P. A.

    2012-04-01

    An idealized modeling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descending mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localized regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. Moist baroclinic lifecycle (LC1) simulations are performed with modifications to produce cyclones resembling observed sting-jet cyclones. Two jets exist in the control idealized cyclone that descend into the frontal fracture region and result in strong winds near to the top of the boundary layer; one of these satisfies the criteria for a sting jet, the other is associated with the warm front. Sensitivity experiments show that both these jets are robust features. The sting jet strength (measured by maximum low-level wind speed or descent rate) increases with the cyclone growth rate; growth rate increases with increasing basic-state zonal jet maximum or decreasing basic-state tropospheric static stability. The two cyclones with the weakest basic-state static stability have by far the strongest sting jets, with descent rates comparable to those observed. Evaporative cooling contributes up to 20% of the descent rate in these sting jets compared with up to 4% in the other sting jets. Conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release in the cloud head also contributes to the sting jet, although there is less extensive CSI than in observed cases. The robustness of the sting jets suggests that they could occur frequently in cyclones with frontal fracture; however, they are unlikely to be identified unless momentum transport through the boundary layer leads to strong surface wind gusts.

  16. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

    PubMed Central

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

  17. Source of microbaroms from tropical cyclone waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stopa, Justin E.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; GarcéS, Milton A.; Fee, David

    2011-03-01

    Microbaroms are continuous infrasonic signals with a dominant frequency around 0.2 Hz produced by ocean surface waves. Monitoring stations around the globe routinely detect strong microbaroms in the lee of tropical cyclones. We utilize a parametric wind model and a spectral wave model to construct the tropical cyclone wave field and a theoretical acoustic source model to describe the intensity, spatial distribution, and dynamics of microbarom sources. This approach excludes ambient wave conditions and facilitates a parametric analysis to elucidate the source mechanism within the storm. A stationary tropical cyclone produces the strongest microbarom signals at the center, where the waves generated by the cyclonic winds converge. As the tropical cyclone moves forward, the converging wave field becomes less coherent and lags and expands behind the storm center. The models predict a direct relation between the storm forward speed and the location of maximum microbarom source intensity consistent with the infrasonic observations from Hurricane Felicia 2009 in the North Central Pacific.

  18. Interactions between climate and tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.

    2007-05-01

    For the last 50 years, there have been two major thrusts in tropical cyclone research: determining the state of the atmosphere and ocean that is suitable for the formation of tropical storms (the genesis criteria) and short-term forecasting of the track and intensity of storms. Efforts to forecast seasonal storm activity, especially in the North Atlantic Ocean, have been undertaken through empirical means and, more recently, using low-resolution climate models. Climate model results have been exceptionally encouraging suggesting that the tropical cyclogenesis factors are predictable and are part of the large scale tropical circulation. During the last few years, a spate of papers has noted the relationship between changes in sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency. A critical issue is determining to what degree the frequency of hurricanes, as well as their intensity distribution, will change in a warming world. We discuss recent research regarding the interactions of the climate system with tropical cyclones, including the role of climate in determining the genesis of tropical cyclones and the role of tropical cyclones in the heat balance of the planet. Specifically: (i) We re-examine the genesis criteria of tropical cyclones and add two new criteria based on the behavior of waves in a flow varying in longitude and the inertial instability of equatorial flow in a cross-equatorial pressure gradient environment. Tropical cyclones are seen to form where the stretching deformation is negative and where large-scale waves transform into tight smaller and highly energetic scale vortices. We also discuss the tendency for storms to develop and intensify where the near-equatorial flow is inertially unstable. (ii) Tropical cyclones act to cool the tropical oceans by > 1K/year by evaporation of ocean surface water and by entrainment mixing with cooler water from below the mixed layer. We suggest that tropical cyclones are important part of

  19. LCSs in tropical cyclone genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, B.; Montgomery, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    The formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic most often occurs at the intersection of the wave trough axis of a westward propagating African easterly wave and the wave critical latitude. Viewed in a moving reference frame with the wave, a cat's eye region of cyclonic recirculation can be seen in streamlines prior to genesis. The cat's eye recirculation region has little strain deformation and its center serves as the focal point for aggregation of convectively generated vertical vorticity. Air inside the cat's eye is repeatedly moistened by convection and is protected from the lateral intrusion of dry air. Since the flow is inherently time-dependent, we contrast the time-dependent structures with Eulerian structures of the wave-relative frame. Time-dependence complicates the kinematic structure of the recirculation region as air masses from the outer environment are allowed to interact with the interior of the cat's eye. LCSs show different boundaries of the cat's eye than the streamlines in the wave-relative frame. These LCSs are particularly important for showing the pathways of air masses that interact with the developing vortex, as moist air promotes development by supporting deep convection, while interaction with dry air impedes development. We primarily use FTLEs to locate the LCSs, and show the role of LCSs in both developing and non-developing storms. In addition, we discuss how the vertical coherence of LCSs is important for resisting the effects of vertical wind shear.

  20. GPM Rain Rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's GPM Satellite Close-up of Cyclone Pam's Rainfall NASA-JAXA's GPM core satellite captured rain rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam at 03:51 UTC (2:51 p.m. local time) on March 14, 2015. Heavie...

  1. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

    2016-07-15

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. PMID:27418502

  2. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Jack in Satellite 3-D

    NASA Video Gallery

    This 3-D flyby from NASA's TRMM satellite of Tropical Cyclone Jack on April 21 shows that some of the thunderstorms were shown by TRMM PR were still reaching height of at least 17 km (10.5 miles). ...

  4. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-07-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  5. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Uriah

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Feb. 15, GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 127 mm (5 inches) per hour in a band of intense storms south of Tropical Cyclone Uriah's center. Thunderstorms moving around the southwestern ...

  6. Animation of Flood Potential from Two Australian Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Video Gallery

    Merged precipitation data from NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and other satellites was used to calculate flood potential withrainfall from Tropical Cyclone Lam and Tropical ...

  7. Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tokay, Ali; Bashor, Paul G.; Habib, Emad; Kasparis, Takis

    2008-01-01

    Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized

  8. Potential Vorticity Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, John; Skubis, Steven; Vollaro, David; Alsheimer, Frank; Willoughby, Hugh E.

    1998-08-01

    The interaction of marginal Tropical Storm Danny (1985) with an upper-tropospheric positive potential vorticity anomaly was examined. The intensification mechanism proposed earlier for mature Hurricane Elena appears to be valid for Danny as well, despite significant differences in the synoptic-scale environment and in the stage of the tropical cyclone prior to the interaction. Both storms experienced rapid pressure falls as a relatively small-scale positive upper potential vorticity anomaly began to superpose with the low-level tropical cyclone center.The interaction is described in terms of a complex interplay between vertical wind shear, diabatic heating, and mutual advection among vortices at and below the level of the outflow anticyclone. Despite this complexity, the superposition principle appears to be conceptually useful to describe the intensification of tropical cyclones during such interactions.

  9. Field theoretical prediction of a property of the tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spineanu, F.; Vlad, M.

    2014-01-01

    The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be expected that the stationary state of the tropical cyclone has the same nature as the vortices of many other systems in nature: ideal (Euler) fluids, superconductors, Bose-Einsetin condensate, cosmic strings, etc. Indeed it was found that there is a description of the atmospheric vortex in terms of a classical field theory. It is compatible with the more conventional treatment based on conservation laws, but the field theoretical model reveals properties that are almost inaccessible to the conventional formulation: it identifies the stationary states as being close to self-duality. This is of highest importance: the self-duality is known to be the origin of all coherent structures known in natural systems. Therefore the field theoretical (FT) formulation finds that the cuasi-coherent form of the atmospheric vortex (tropical cyclone) at stationarity is an expression of this particular property. In the present work we examine a strong property of the tropical cyclone, which arises in the FT formulation in a natural way: the equality of the masses of the particles associated to the matter field and respectively to the gauge field in the FT model is translated into the equality between the maximum radial extension of the tropical cyclone and the Rossby radius. For the cases where the FT model is a good approximation we calculate characteristic quantities of the tropical cyclone and find good comparison with observational data.

  10. Modelling Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Storm Tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardisty, F.; Carroll, D.

    2011-12-01

    Two of the most useful data sets for understanding Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones are the HURDAT data set, provided by NOAA, and the Extended Best Track (EBT) data set, provided by Colorado State University. Each has their strengths: the HURDAT is a more complete set of cyclone tracks, while the EBT contains additional radial extent, wind speed, and pressure information for a more limited set of cyclones. We report here on methods that we developed to generate realistic synthetic cyclone tracks using the strengths of each data set. We also report on some novel visualization methods (using HTML5) and cloud computing methods we employed in the research. We hope that this research will lead to more accurate predictions of the number and severity of cyclones for a given season.

  11. Tropical Cyclone Bejisa Near Madagascar

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA's TRMM satellite flew over Cyclone Bejisa on December 29, 2013 at 1507 UTC. This 3-D animation of TRMM data revealed strong thunderstorms around Bejisa's center were reaching heights above 16....

  12. Citizen scientists analyzing tropical cyclone intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    2012-10-01

    A new crowd sourcing project called CycloneCenter enables the public to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities. The primary goal of CycloneCenter, which launched in mid-September, is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The historical TC record is composed of data sets called "best tracks," which contain a forecast agency's best assessment of TC tracks and intensities. Best track data have improved in quality since the beginning of the geostationary satellite era in the 1960s (because TCs could no longer disappear from sight). However, a global compilation of best track data (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)) has brought to light large interagency differences between some TC best track intensities, even in the recent past [Knapp et al., 2010Knapp et al., 2010]. For example, maximum wind speed estimates for Tropical Cyclone Gay (1989) differed by as much as 70 knots as it was tracked by three different agencies.

  13. Tropical cyclone Pam field survey in Vanuatu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Kosciuch, Thomas; Hong, Isabel; Rarai, Allan; Harrison, Morris J.; Jockley, Fred R.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2016-04-01

    Severe tropical cyclone Pam (Cat. 5, SSHS) crossed the Vanuatu archipelago with sustained winds of 270 km/h on March 13 and 14, 2015 and made landfall on Erromango. Pam is the most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall on Vanuatu since the advent of satellite imagery based intensity estimates in the 1970s. Pam caused one of the worst natural disaster in Vanuatu's recorded history. Eleven fatalities were directly attributed to cyclone Pam and mostly due to lack of shelter from airborne debris. On March 6 Pam formed east of the Santa Cruz Islands causing coastal inundation on Tuvalu's Vaitupu Island located some 1100 km east of the cyclone center. Pam intensified while tracking southward along Vanuatu severely affecting the Shefa and Tafea Provinces. An international storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Vanuatu from June 3 to 17, 2015 to complement earlier local surveys. Cyclone Pam struck a remote island archipelago particularly vulnerable to the combined cyclonic multi-hazards encompassing extreme wind gusts, massive rainfall and coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and storm wave impacts. The team surveyed coastal villages on Epi, the Shepherd Islands (Tongoa and Mataso), Efate (including Lelepa), Erromango, and Tanna. The survey spanned 320 km parallel to the cyclone track between Epi and Tanna encompassing more than 45 sites including the hardest hit settlements. Coastal flooding profiles were surveyed from the shoreline to the limit of inundation. Maximum coastal flood elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, rafted debris and corroborated with eyewitness accounts. We surveyed 91 high water marks with characteristic coastal flood levels in the 3 to 7 m range and composed of storm surge with superimposed storm waves. Inundation distances were mostly limited to a few hundred meters but reached 800 m on Epi Island. Wrack lines containing pumice perfectly delineated the

  14. Nuclear power plant risk from tropical cyclones

    SciTech Connect

    Gilmore, T.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are considered to have a potential for contributing to the overall core-melt frequency at Turkey Point. A tropical cyclone is known to have the four main hazards associated with it: wind, tidal surge, wind-generated missiles, and precipitation. To understand the contribution to overall core-melt risk at Turkey Point, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of these hazards and their relative importance. The results are bounded by the hurricane surge scenario, where the frequency of core melt is equal to the frequency of the surge reaching 19 ft NGVD (National Geographic Vertical Datum). This could be mitigated by potential recovery actions for the tropical cyclone scenario. The probability of the storm surge reaching 19 ft NVGD is estimated to be 1 x 10{sup {minus}4}. The data associated with the tropical cyclones as discussed in detail in the body of this paper are lacking in quantity and quality. By taking the conservative approach in creating the wind/frequency, wind/surge, and surge/frequency relationships, the conclusion that the results are worst case is reasonable. With this in mind, it is logical to conclude that the value of further hazard analysis to narrow down the built-in conservative margin using the existing data and technology is doubtful. Thus, a recovery approach to driving the risk level down is the most pragmatic step to be taken.

  15. The Indian Ocean Dipole's influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marinaro, Alan Joseph

    Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.

  16. Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2014-03-01

    In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

  17. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

  18. A Simplified Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, W. H.

    2015-12-01

    An axisymmetric model of tropical cyclone intensification is presented. The model is based on Salmon's wave-vortex approximation, which can describe flows with high Rossby number and low Froude number. After introducing an additional approximation designed to filter propagating inertia-gravity waves, the problem is reduced to the prediction of potential vorticity (PV) and the inversion of this PV to obtain the balanced wind and mass fields. This PV prediction/inversion problem is solved analytically for two types of forcing: a two-region model in which there is nonzero forcing in the cyclone core and zero forcing in the far-field; a three-region model in which there is non-zero forcing in both the cyclone core and the eyewall, with zero forcing in the far-field. The solutions of the two-region model provide insight into why tropical cyclones can have long incubation times before rapid intensification and how the size of the mature vortex can be influenced by the size of the initial vortex. The solutions of the three-region model provide insight into the formation of hollow PV structures and the inward movement of angular momentum surfaces across the radius of maximum wind.

  19. Tropical Cyclones and the Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmerman, N. L.; Emanuel, K.

    2010-12-01

    The relationship between tropical cyclones and the carbon cycle poses an interesting question: tropical surface waters are generally quite warm and poor in nutrients, but the mixing in tropical cyclones entrains potentially large amounts of cold, nutrient-rich water. As the cold anomaly warms, there is a tendency toward over-saturation of carbon dioxide, and thus a net outgassing from the ocean to the atmosphere, but because nutrients are mixed into the photic zone, there is a simultaneous phytoplankton bloom which removes carbon from the mixed layer. The amount of carbon taken up into biota by the induced biological activity can in some cases create a net undersaturation of carbon dioxide in spite of the warming of entrained cold water, and therefore cause a net ingassing of carbon in the wake of a tropical cyclone. This is, however, only a short-term effect. Phytoplankton have a short life cycle, and the detritus they leave behind sinks and remineralizes; that which remineralizes below the climatological mixed layer represents a long-term sink of carbon from the atmosphere to the mixed layer, but the remainder will quickly return to the atmosphere. Both the warming of the mixed layer and the induced phytoplankton bloom are easily observable, but neither the sign nor the magnitude of the net effect is intuitive. To illuminate the question, a simple one-dimensional model is formulated which simulates the behavior of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean in response to tropical cyclone-induced mixing. Phytoplankton (and its remains), Nitrate, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon are tracked, and the model is both initialized and forced with the best possible approximation to real chemical concentrations, winds, and heat fluxes, and the effect of the storm is estimated by comparing model behavior with the storm included and with the storm removed from observations. It is shown that the model performs acceptably well compared to such observations as exist. The model is

  20. Cyclone Center: Using Crowdsourcing to Determine Tropical Cyclone Intensity (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennon, C. C.; Knapp, K. R.; Schreck, C. J.; Stevens, S. E.; Kossin, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    The strength of tropical cyclones (TCs) is traditionally determined using the sustained maximum wind speed. Because TCs develop and spend most of their lifetime over tropical oceans, it is rare to directly observe a storm well enough to determine its strength accurately. The Dvorak technique was developed in the 1970s and 1980s to address this problem. By determining a number of cloud and structural characteristics from satellite images, a forecaster could now arrive at a reasonable maximum sustained wind without direct observations. However, the Dvorak technique by nature is subjective and it has been shown that trained experts frequently disagree on storm intensities. Furthermore, the application of the rules and constraints of the process has diverged with time across different forecast centers. This has led in several cases to severe disagreements in storm intensities when two or more forecast centers track the same TC. The accumulation of these differences has caused heterogeneous trends in TC intensity to arise at decadal time scales. A global reanalysis of TC intensity is required to resolve these discrepancies, but such an undertaking is unrealistic. Cyclone Center, an Internet crowd sourcing site for TCs, was created to resolve differences in TC intensities and produce a consistent 32-year (1978-2009) record of it. By using a homogeneous satellite dataset (HURSAT) and adapting the Dvorak technique into a set of three or four simple questions, laypersons perform the actions of the expert. User responses are converted into 3-hourly storm intensities. To capitalize on the crowd sourcing approach, at least 10 different users are shown the same image; this allows critical data such as cloud pattern uncertainties and storm metadata (e.g. eye size, center location, cloud pattern) to be collected. Preliminary analyses show that our citizen scientists many times outperform computer classifications in pattern matching and exhibit low bias and mean error when

  1. Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1980-01-01

    Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

  2. Space options for tropical cyclone hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dicaire, Isabelle; Nakamura, Ryoko; Arikawa, Yoshihisa; Okada, Kazuyuki; Itahashi, Takamasa; Summerer, Leopold

    2015-02-01

    This paper investigates potential space options for mitigating the impact of tropical cyclones on cities and civilians. Ground-based techniques combined with space-based remote sensing instrumentation are presented together with space-borne concepts employing space solar power technology. Two space-borne mitigation options are considered: atmospheric warming based on microwave irradiation and laser-induced cloud seeding based on laser power transfer. Finally technology roadmaps dedicated to the space-borne options are presented, including a detailed discussion on the technological viability and technology readiness level of our proposed systems. Based on these assessments, the space-borne cyclone mitigation options presented in this paper may be established in a quarter of a century.

  3. A Conundrum of Tropical Cyclone Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper will address a conundrum that has emerged from recent research on tropical cyclone formation. Composite analyses and case studies suggest that prior to genesis, the atmosphere presents a mid-tropospheric vortex that is strong compared to the cyclonic circulation in the boundary layer. Accompanying this vortex is near saturation from the boundary layer through at least 5 km, sometimes more, and a nearly balanced weak negative temperature anomaly below the vortex and stronger positive temperature anomaly above. This thermodynamic state is one of high moisture but low buoyancy for lifted parcels (i.e. low convective available potential energy). However, observations also suggest that widespread deep convection accompanies genesis, with cloud top temperatures becoming colder near the time of genesis. This is seemingly at odds with in situ observations of thermodynamic characteristics prior to genesis. Progress toward understanding the apparent contradiction can be made by realizing that the existence of a moist, relatively stable vortex, and deep convective clouds are not necessarily coincident in space and time. This is demonstrated by a detailed analysis of the two days leading up to the formation of Atlantic tropical cyclone Karl on 14 September. Karl featured a relatively long gestation period characterized initially by a marked misalignment of mid-tropospheric and surface cyclonic circulations. The mid-tropospheric vortex strengthened due to a pulse of convection earlier on 13 September. Meanwhile, the near-surface vortex underwent a precession around the mid-tropospheric vortex as the separation between the two decreased. The eruption of convection around midnight on 14 September, 18 hours prior to declaration on a TC, occurred in the center of the nearly-aligned vortex, contained a mixture of shallow and deep convection and resulted in spin-up over a deep layer, but particularly at the surface. Prior to genesis, the most intense deep convection was

  4. Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Central American Gyres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papin, P. P.; Bosart, L. F.; Torn, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    Central American gyres (CAGs) are broad (~1000 km diameter) low-level cyclonic circulations that organize over Central America during the tropical cyclone (TC) season. While CAGs have rarely been studied, prior work on similar circulations has been conducted on monsoon depressions (MDs) and monsoon gyres (MGs), which possess spatial scales of 1000 - 2500 km in the west Pacific basin. A key difference between MDs and MGs is related to the organization of vorticity around the low-level circulation. MDs possess a symmetrical vorticity pattern where vorticity accumulates near the circulation center over time, occasionally developing into a large TC. In contrast, MGs possess asymmetrical vorticity, organized in mesovorticies, which rotate cyclonically along the periphery of the MG circulation. Small tropical cyclones (TCs) occasionally develop from these mesovorticies. Interaction and development of TCs within CAGs are also common, as noted by a CAG identified during the 2010 PREDICT field project, which involved the interaction of TC Matthew and the development of TC Nicole within the larger CAG. This project is motivated by the lack of prior research on CAGs, as well as the complex scale interactions that occasionally occur between TCs and CAGs. This presentation focuses on the mutual interaction of vortices embedded in the larger-scale cyclonic flow comprising the CAG circulation. Case studies will be presented using a circulation framework to illustrate the relationship between different scale vorticity elements within the CAG. Some of these case studies resemble a MD-like evolution, where a large TC develops through the accumulation of symmetrical vorticity around the CAG (e.g. TC Opal 1995, TC Frances 1998). Other instances resemble a MG-like evolution, where smaller mesovorticies rotate around a common circulation center (e.g. TC Florence 1988). The circulation analysis framework aids in the diagnosis of interaction between different scale cyclonic vortices, and

  5. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.L. )

    1993-06-01

    Increased occurrence of more intense tropical storms intruding further poleward has been foreshadowed as one of the potential consequences of global warming. This scenario is based almost entirely on the general circulation model predictions of warmer sea surface temperature (SST) with increasing levels of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and some theories of tropical cyclone intensification that support the notion of more intense systems with warmer SST. Whether storms are able to achieve this theoretically determined more intense state depends on whether the temperature of the underlying water is the dominant factor in tropical cyclone intensification. An examination of the historical data record in a number of ocean basins is used to identify the relative importance of SST in the tropical cyclone intensification process. The results reveal that SST alone is an inadequate predictor of tropical cyclone intensity. Other factors known to affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are discussed. 16 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  6. Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  7. NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall, Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclone Nathan

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite showed that the heaviest rainfall occurring in Tropical Cyclone Nathan on March 18 at 0758 UTC (3:58 a.m. EDT) was falling at a rat...

  8. Entropy Convective Flux for Tropical Cyclone Haiyan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Gharaylou, Maryam; Ghafarian, Parvin

    2016-07-01

    It is well-known that the environmental factors control tropical cyclones (TCs). one of the most considered thermodynamical parameters is entropy that its significant role on tropical cyclogenesis and TC intensification has been professionally focused in some recent research studies. In the current work, two data sets including satellite data and NCEP-GFS data have been used to investigate the entropy parameter and its convective flux, during tropical cyclone Haiyan (TCH) occurred on 3-11 November 2013 and nominated as the strongest TC over Pacific Ocean before 2014. This purpose has been proceeded for three domain areas with different size. These domains cover inner, eyewall and rainbands, and environmental regions of TCH at various pressure levels. Also three terms of entropy vertical flux including dissipative heating, surface entropy flux and difference between entropy values over inner and outer regions have been analyzed. Our obtained results showed relatively similar behavior of averaged entropy over all selected domain, but with a delay and decrease in maximum values for the smaller domains. In addition our findings revealed different considerable contributions for three terms of entropy vertical flux.

  9. Lessons learnt from tropical cyclone losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honegger, Caspar; Wüest, Marc; Zimmerli, Peter; Schoeck, Konrad

    2016-04-01

    Swiss Re has a long history in developing natural catastrophe loss models. The tropical cyclone USA and China model are examples for event-based models in their second generation. Both are based on basin-wide probabilistic track sets and calculate explicitly the losses from the sub-perils wind and storm surge in an insurance portfolio. Based on these models, we present two cases studies. China: a view on recent typhoon loss history Over the last 20 years only very few major tropical cyclones have caused severe insurance losses in the Pearl River Delta region and Shanghai, the two main exposure clusters along China's southeast coast. Several storms have made landfall in China every year but most struck areas with relatively low insured values. With this study, we make the point that typhoon landfalls in China have a strong hit-or-miss character and available insured loss experience is too short to form a representative view of risk. Historical storm tracks and a simple loss model applied to a market portfolio - all from publicly available data - are sufficient to illustrate this. An event-based probabilistic model is necessary for a reliable judgement of the typhoon risk in China. New York: current and future tropical cyclone risk In the aftermath of hurricane Sandy 2012, Swiss Re supported the City of New York in identifying ways to significantly improve the resilience to severe weather and climate change. Swiss Re provided a quantitative assessment of potential climate related risks facing the city as well as measures that could reduce those impacts.

  10. Tropical cyclone genesis products at ECMWF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prates, F.; Vitart, Frederic

    2009-09-01

    The operational ECMWF forecast system is nowadays able not only to analyse the current location of a tropical cyclone (TC) and predict its subsequent evolution, but also to predict the genesis of tropical cyclones, often several days before they occur. The advent of 4D-Var and assimilation of massive amounts of satellite data, combined with better model physics and an increase of horizontal/vertical resolution are among the numerous important changes made in the past with positive impact in TC forecast skill. Recent changes to the forecast system that have substantially improved the TC predictions are the increase in horizontal resolution in 2006, from T511 (40 km) to T799 (25 km) (T255 to T399 in the EPS), and improved model physics introduced in 2007. ECMWF generates a number of specific products for tropical cyclone forecasts. For each TC observed at initial time, a tracking algorithm is used to identify the successive positions of the TC throughout the forecast range. The tracker is applied to the deterministic T799 model and to each member of the EPS. The EPS tracks are used to generate strike probability maps. The tracking algorithm has recently been extended to identify and track new TCs that are predicted to appear during the forecast. Strike probability products for TC genesis have been developed and some cases will be selected to illustrate this product. Results from the objective verification package, upgraded to include the verification of TC genesis, will be presented and discussed, emphasising the impact on TC performance from recent changes in the forecast system.

  11. Diurnal variations of tropical cyclone precipitationin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Using 15 years of satellite-measured precipitation data and tropical cyclone (TC) information, this study estimates the diurnal variations of TC precipitation in its inner core and outer rainbands. It is found that for both weak (tropical storms to category 1 TCs) and strong (categories 2-5 TCs) storms over all six TC basins, the TC precipitation reaches its daily maximum in the morning, but the mean rain rate and diurnal variations are larger in the inner core than in the outer rainbands. With increasing radial distance from the TC center, the diurnal amplitude of precipitation decreases, and the peak time appears progressively later. The outward propagation of diurnal signals from the TC center dominates as an internal structure of the TC convective systems. For all basins examined, the diurnal precipitation maximum within the inner core of a strong storm occurs earlier than the maximum observed in non-TC precipitation; the same result is not found for the outer rainbands.

  12. Emergency Department Presentations following Tropical Cyclone Yasi

    PubMed Central

    Aitken, Peter; Franklin, Richard Charles; Lawlor, Jenine; Mitchell, Rob; Watt, Kerrianne; Furyk, Jeremy; Small, Niall; Lovegrove, Leone; Leggat, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED) of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville) following a tropical cyclone (Yasi). Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender), triage categories, and classification of diseases. Methods Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS) for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011) to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012). The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level. Results There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories - 4 and 5; and ICD categories - diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99). The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98). Discussion There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24 – 48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience. PMID:26111010

  13. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Glenn, S M; Miles, T N; Seroka, G N; Xu, Y; Forney, R K; Yu, F; Roarty, H; Schofield, O; Kohut, J

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  14. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-03-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

  15. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  16. Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact

  17. Saturn's Polar Cyclones: Idealized 2-layer Experiments of Vorticity Mixing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Flierl, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Cassini mission has provided unprecedented high-resolution observations of Saturn's atmosphere. Among many discoveries, a massive warm-core cyclonic vortex has been observed on each pole. The South Polar Vortex (SPV), specifically, has the highest measured temperatures on Saturn, a double eyewall, deep eye and a rapid cyclonic jet with the second highest windspeeds observed on the planet. However, in part because Saturn lacks the thermal disequilibrium mechanism understood to be the energy source for tropical cyclones, scientists have yet to explain the storms' dynamics and energy source. Interestingly, numerous small, vortical (in the case of at least the SPV), and potentially convective systems are embedded within the large-scale flow of both polar vortices. We explore one potential mechanism of vortex maintenance: up-scale, poleward vorticity flux due to vortical hot towers (VHTs). Large GCMs cannot yet resolve local deep convection in the weather layer. Using a two-layer shallow water model on a polar β-plane, we represent deep convection with heton-like vortex pairs and allow them to move freely. We present results from a forced-dissipative system where the forcing is only at the convective scale, and show the effect of this 'convection' on a polar cyclone.

  18. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  19. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-01

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence. PMID:24305147

  20. Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patwardhan, A.; Paliwal, M.; Mohapatra, M.

    2011-12-01

    Cyclones are regarded as one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena of the tropical region. The probability of landfall of a tropical cyclone depends on its movement (trajectory). Analysis of trajectories of tropical cyclones could be useful for identifying potentially predictable characteristics. There is long history of analysis of tropical cyclones tracks. A common approach is using different clustering techniques to group the cyclone tracks on the basis of certain characteristics. Various clustering method have been used to study the tropical cyclones in different ocean basins like western North Pacific ocean (Elsner and Liu, 2003; Camargo et al., 2007), North Atlantic Ocean (Elsner, 2003; Gaffney et al. 2007; Nakamura et al., 2009). In this study, tropical cyclone tracks in the North Indian Ocean basin, for the period 1961-2010 have been analyzed and grouped into clusters based on their spatial characteristics. A tropical cyclone trajectory is approximated as an open curve and described by its first two moments. The resulting clusters have different centroid locations and also differently shaped variance ellipses. These track characteristics are then used in the standard clustering algorithms which allow the whole track shape, length, and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. The resulting clusters have different genesis locations and trajectory shapes. We have also examined characteristics such as life span, maximum sustained wind speed, landfall, seasonality, many of which are significantly different across the identified clusters. The clustering approach groups cyclones with higher maximum wind speed and longest life span in to one cluster. Another cluster includes short duration cyclonic events that are mostly deep depressions and significant for rainfall over Eastern and Central India. The clustering approach is likely to prove useful for analysis of events of significance with regard to impacts.

  1. Putting to rest WISHE-ful misconceptions for tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montomery, Michael T.; Persing, John; Smith, Roger K.

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to point out and correct several misconceptions about the putative WISHE mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification that currently are being taught to atmospheric science students, to tropical weather forecasters, and to laypeople who seek to understand how tropical cyclones intensify. The mechanism relates to the simplest problem of an initial cyclonic vortex in a quiescent environment. This first part is important because the credibility of tropical cyclone science depends inter alia on being able to articulate a clear and consistent picture of the hypothesized intensification process and its dependencies on key flow parameters. The credibility depends also on being able to test the hypothesized mechanisms using observations, numerical models, or theoretical analyses. The second purpose of the paper is to carry out new numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art numerical model to test a recent hypothesis invoking the WISHE feedback mechanism during the rapid intensification phase of a tropical cyclone. The results obtained herein, in conjunction with prior work, do not support this recent hypothesis and refute the view that the WISHE intensification mechanism is the essential mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification in the idealized problem that historically has been used to underpin the paradigm. This second objective is important because it presents a simple way of testing the hypothesized intensification mechanism and shows that the mechanism is neither essential nor the dominant mode of intensification for the prototype intensification problem. In view of the operational, societal, and scientific interest in the physics of tropical cyclone intensification, we believe this paper will be of broad interest to the atmospheric science community and the findings should be useful in both the classroom setting and frontier research.

  2. Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

    2013-04-01

    Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. Damage

  3. NASA Sees Heavy Rain in Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Video Gallery

    On June 29, GPM showed Tropical Cyclone 02A had a few powerful convective thunderstorms southwest of the center of circulation were dropping rain at the extreme rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per...

  4. TRMM Sees Rainfall Totals from Tropical Cyclone Guito

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation of rainfall gathered from February 11-19, 2014 by NASA's TRMM satellite revealed that Tropical Cyclone Guito produced as much as 16.9 inches/430 mm of rainfall in the center of the M...

  5. Rainfall Totals from the Tropical Cyclones Passing Over Philippines

    NASA Video Gallery

    Rainfall totals from the TRMM satellite of all tropical cyclones that passed through the Philippines from January through November 11, 2013. Red indicated areas where rainfall totals were greater t...

  6. Tropical Cyclone Mahasen Rain Moving Into Bay Of Bengal

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis shows the rainfall that occurred with Tropical Cyclone Mahasen during the week of May 6 through 13, 2013 as it moved through the Bay of Beng...

  7. The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Elsner, James B; Kossin, James P; Jagger, Thomas H

    2008-09-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere. Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity. Here we overcome these two limitations by examining trends in the upper quantiles of per-cyclone maximum wind speeds (that is, the maximum intensities that cyclones achieve during their lifetimes), estimated from homogeneous data derived from an archive of satellite records. We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s(-1) yr(-1) (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones. We note separate upward trends in the estimated lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the very strongest tropical cyclones (99th percentile) over each ocean basin, with the largest increase at this quantile occurring over the North Atlantic, although not all basins show statistically significant increases. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind. PMID:18769438

  8. The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

    Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

  9. Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity: Interannual Prediction and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2014-12-01

    It is 35 years since it was first demonstrated that interannual variations in seasonal Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) activity could be predicted using simple indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). That demonstration (Nicholls, 1979), which was surprising and unexpected at the time, relied on only 25 years of data (1950-1975), but its later confirmation eventually led to the introduction of operational seasonal tropical cyclone activity. It is worth examining how well the ENSO-TC relationship has performed, over the period since 1975. Changes in observational technology, and even how a tropical cyclone is defined, have affected the empirical relationships between ENSO and seasonal activity, and ways to overcome this in forecasting seasonal activity will be discussed. Such changes also complicate the investigation of long-term trends in cyclone activity. The early work linked cyclone activity to local sea surface temperature thereby leading to the expectation that global warming would result in an increase in cyclone activity. But studies in the 1990s (eg., Nicholls et al., 1998) suggested that such an increase in activity was not occurring, neither in the Australian region nor elsewhere. Trends in Australian tropical cyclone activity will be discussed, and the confounding influence of factors such as changes in observational technologies will be examined. Nicholls, N. 1979. A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon. Weath. Rev., 107, 1221-1224 Nicholls, N., Landsea, C., and Gill, J., 1998. Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 65, 197-205.

  10. The Intensification of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Leon Trungduong

    Environmental vertical wind shear has been shown to have a generally detrimental impact on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. However, many cases of rapidly intensifying (RI) sheared TCs have been observed, and TCs in moderate (5-10 m s-1) shear often have the largest intensity forecast errors. Thus, advancing the understanding of TC-shear interactions is vital to improving TC intensity forecasts, which have not seen much improvement over the past few decades. This dissertation employs both observational and high-resolution numerical modeling approaches to investigate how some TCs are able to resist shear and intensify. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999) was studied using observations, while the short-term RI of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model run at 1-km horizontal resolution. Both storms exhibited a downshear-left vortex tilt and a marked azimuthal wavenumber-1 convective asymmetry. However, the azimuthally averaged diabatic heating also increased, suggesting that TC intensity may be more sensitive to the azimuthally averaged component of diabatic heating rather than the asymmetric component. Furthermore, this increase occurred within the radius of maximum winds (RMW), a region theorized to favor rapid spinup of the vortex. A key difference between the Irene and Gabrielle cases was that the latter underwent a downshear reformation. The circulation associated with an intense mesovortex and other localized cyclonic vorticity anomalies comprised a developing "inner vortex" on the downshear-left (downtilt) periphery of the broader parent vortex. This inner vortex was nearly upright within a parent vortex that was tilted significantly with height. The inner vortex became the dominant vortex of the system, advecting and absorbing the broad, tilted parent vortex. A method was developed for diagnosing vortex tilt in the simulation. The reduction of TC vortex tilt from 65 km to 20 km

  11. Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dropco, K. M.; Gray, W. M.

    1981-01-01

    One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

  12. Tropical cyclone motion and recurvature in TCM-90. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, M.E.

    1992-01-01

    Rawinsonde and satellite data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM90) experiment, which was conducted during the summer of 1990 in the Western North pacific, is used to examine tropical cyclone steering motion and recurvature. TCM-90 composite results are compared with those found in a composite study using twenty-one years (1957-77) of Western North Pacific rawinsonde data during the same August-September period and also for all months during this same 21-year period. Both data sets indicate that the composite deep-layer-mean (850-300 mb) winds 5-7 deg from the cyclone center provide an important component of the steering flow for tropical cyclones. However, despite the rawinsonde data enhancements of the TCM-90 experiment, data limitations prevented an accurate observation of steering flow conditions at individual time periods or for the average of only 5-10 time periods when composited together.

  13. Characterization of flash floods induced by tropical cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the role of tropical cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions) in the generation of flash floods in Mexico. For this, a severity assessment during several cyclonic events for selected catchments was estimated through the evaluation of a flash flood index recently proposed by Kim and Kim (2014). This classification is revised, considering the forcing and areal extent of torrential rainfall generated by the incidence of tropical cyclones on the studied catchments, enabling the further study of the flood regime in catchments located in tropical regions. The analysis incorporates characteristics of the flood hydrographs such as the hydrograph shape (rising curve gradient, magnitude of the peak discharge and flood response time) in order to identify flash-flood prone areas. Results show the Qp-A scaling relationship in catchments that were impacted by tropical cyclones, enabling their comparison against floods generated by other meteorological events (e.g. convective and orographic storms). Results will inform on how peak flows relationships are modified by cyclonic events and highlighting the contribution of cyclonic precipitation to flash-flooding susceptibility.

  14. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Simpson, J.

    2002-01-01

    The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

  15. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Simpson, J.

    2002-05-01

    The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1989) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude far exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan dust may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from less than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging. Clarke, A.D. and V.N. Kapustin, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 363-382, 2002. Hudson, J.G., J. Atmos. & Ocean. Tech., 6, 1055-1065, 1989.

  16. The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Avery, Melody A.; Deng, Min; Garnier, Anne; Heymsfield, Andrew; Pelon, Jacques; Powell, Kathleen A.; Trepte, Charles R.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.; Young, Stuart

    2012-01-01

    NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

  17. Observed strong currents under global tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yu-Chia; Tseng, Ruo-Shan; Chu, Peter C.; Chen, Jau-Ming; Centurioni, Luca R.

    2016-07-01

    Global data from drifters of the Surface Velocity Program (Niiler, 2001) and tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center were analyzed to demonstrate strong ocean currents and their characteristics under various storm intensities in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Mean TC's translation speed (Uh) is faster in the NH (~ 4.7 m s- 1) than in the SH (~ 4.0 m s- 1), owing to the fact that TCs are more intense in the NH than in the SH. The rightward (leftward) bias of ocean mixed-layer (OML) velocity occurs in the NH (SH). As a result of this slower Uh and thus a smaller Froude number in the SH, the flow patterns in the SH under the same intensity levels of TCs are more symmetric relative to the TC center and the OML velocities are stronger. This study provides the first characterization of the near-surface OML velocity response to all recorded TCs in the SH from direct velocity measurements.

  18. Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodyss, D.; McLay, J.; Moskaitis, J.; Serra, E.

    2014-12-01

    Stochastic parameterization has become commonplace in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for probabilistic prediction. Here, a specific stochastic parameterization will be related to the theory of stochastic differential equations and shown to be affected strongly by the choice of stochastic calculus. From an NWP perspective our focus will be on ameliorating a common trait of the ensemble distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks (or position), namely that they generally contain a bias and an underestimate of the variance. With this trait in mind we present a stochastic track variance inflation parameterization. This parameterization makes use of a properly constructed stochastic advection term that follows a TC and induces its position to undergo Brownian motion. A central characteristic of Brownian motion is that its variance increases with time, which allows for an effective inflation of an ensemble's TC track variance. Using this stochastic parameterization we present a comparison of the behavior of TCs from the perspective of the stochastic calculi of Itô and Stratonovich within an operational NWP model. The central difference between these two perspectives as pertains to TCs is shown to be properly predicted by the stochastic calculus and the Itô correction. In the cases presented here these differences will manifest as overly intense TCs, which, depending on the strength of the forcing, could lead to problems with numerical stability and physical realism.

  19. The Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Peak Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossin, J. P.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2014-12-01

    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder detection of trends in tropical cyclone metrics. This limits the confident evaluation of proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and we uncover a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude where tropical cyclones have reached their peak intensities over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres with rates of 53 and 62 km per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average expansion of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about 1° latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the independently-observed expansion of the tropics over this same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure and is unlikely to be a data artifact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity and can be plausibly linked to tropical expansion (as related to Hadley circulation expansion), which is generally thought to be driven largely by anthropogenic factors.

  20. Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, J.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M.; Yang, S.; Lee, T. F.; Sampson, C. R.; Solbrig, J.; Kuciauskas, A. P.; Miller, S. D.; Kent, J.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing capabilities to monitor tropical cyclone (TC) location, structure, and intensity have evolved by utilizing a combination of operational and research and development (R&D) sensors. The microwave imagers from the operational Defense Meteorological Satellite Program [Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)] form the "base" for structure observations due to their ability to view through upper-level clouds, modest size swaths and ability to capture most storm structure features. The NASA TRMM microwave imager and precipitation radar continue their 15+ yearlong missions in serving the TC warning and research communities. The cessation of NASA's QuikSCAT satellite after more than a decade of service is sorely missed, but India's OceanSat-2 scatterometer is now providing crucial ocean surface wind vectors in addition to the Navy's WindSat ocean surface wind vector retrievals. Another Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard EUMETSAT's MetOp-2 satellite is slated for launch soon. Passive microwave imagery has received a much needed boost with the launch of the French/Indian Megha Tropiques imager in September 2011, basically greatly supplementing the very successful NASA TRMM pathfinder with a larger swath and more frequent temporal sampling. While initial data issues have delayed data utilization, current news indicates this data will be available in 2013. Future NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) sensors starting in 2014 will provide enhanced capabilities. Also, the inclusion of the new microwave sounder data from the NPP ATMS (Oct 2011) will assist in mapping TC convective structures. The National Polar orbiting Partnership (NPP) program's VIIRS sensor includes a day night band (DNB) with the capability to view TC cloud structure at night when sufficient lunar illumination exits. Examples highlighting this new capability will be discussed in concert with additional data fusion efforts.

  1. Proxies of Tropical Cyclone Isotope Spikes in Precipitation: Landfall Site Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, J. R.; Maddocks, R.

    2011-12-01

    The human experience of climate change is not one of gradual changes in seasonal or yearly changes in temperature or rainfall. Despite that most paleoclimatic reconstructions attempt to provide just such information. Humans experience climate change on much shorter time scales. We remember hurricanes, weeks of drought or overwhelming rainy periods. Tropical cyclones produce very low isotope ratios in both rainfall and in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, climate proxies that potentially record these low isotope ratios offer the most concrete record of climate change to which humans can relate. The oxygen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in fresh water carbonate fossil material, cave deposits and corals. The hydrogen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in tree ring cellulose and organic matter in fresh water bodies. The Class of carbonate organisms known as Ostracoda form their carapaces very rapidly. Thus fresh water ephemeral ponds in the subtropics are ideal locations for isotopic studies because they commonly are totally dry when tropical cyclones make landfall. The other proxies suffer primarily from a dilution effect. The water from tropical cyclones is mixed with pre-existing water. In cave deposits tropical cyclone rains mix with soil and ground waters. In the near shore coral environment the rain mixes with seawater. For tree rings there are three sources of water: soil water, atmospheric water vapor that exchanges with leaf water and tropical cyclone rain. In lakes because of their large size rainfall runoff mixes with ground water and preexisting water in the lake. A region that shows considerable promise is Texas / Northeast Mexico. In a study of surface waters that developed from the passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in SE Texas both the pond water and Ostracoda that bloomed recorded the low oxygen isotope signal of that storm (Lawrence et al, 2008). In

  2. Tropical Cyclone Kesiny northeast of Madagascar, Indian Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Kesiny can be seen over the Indian Ocean in this true color image taken on May 6, 2002, at 6:45 UTC by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra spacecraft. When this image was taken, the cyclone was several hundred miles east of northern Madagascar and packing winds of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour. As the cyclone continues its approach southwest into Madagascar, it is forecast to increase in intensity and generate sustained winds of up to 139 kilometers (86 miles) per hour. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

  3. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts

    PubMed Central

    Mumby, Peter J.; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

  4. Observations of Wind Asymmetries in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dougherty, E.; Davis, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    Most major cities are located on coastlines, vulnerable to the direct impacts of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it is critical to understand and improve prediction of these storms in order to make communities more resilient. Though hurricane warning systems have improved in recent years, these warnings are insufficient, because they fail to account for an indication of tropical cyclone wind asymmetry, or the radial extent of maximum winds in different locations within the cyclone. This study explored the wind asymmetry (defined by magnitude and orientation) among 337 Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1988-2012, utilizing the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Extended Best Track Dataset (EBT) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Asymmetry was defined as the magnitude of the largest difference in the radius of gale-force wind across opposing quadrants, normalized by the average of the four wind radii. The asymmetry orientation pointed along the axis of maximum asymmetry toward the quadrant with the greater gale radius. Relationships between wind asymmetry and various storm characteristics such as geographical location, storm life cycle, intensity, size, storm motion, and vertical wind shear were examined. The magnitude of asymmetry increased in higher latitudes and along coastlines, particularly in smaller storms. Asymmetry was higher at the beginning of a storm's life, possibly owing to a less well-organized structure, and higher at the end of a storm's life, coinciding with an increase in vertical wind shear and translation speed. Results from this study may allow for improved tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings to help protect seaside communities.

  5. Maintenance of Tropical Cyclone Bill (1988) after landfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yamei

    2013-08-01

    The mechanism for the maintenance of Tropical Cyclone Bill (1988) after landfall is investigated through a numerical simulation. The role of the large-scale environmental flow is examined using a scale separation technique, which isolates the tropical cyclone from the environmental flow. The results show that Bill was embedded in a deep easterly-southeasterly environmental flow to the north-northeast of a large-scale depression and to the southwest of the western Pacific subtropical high. The depression had a quasibarotropic structure in the mid-lower troposphere and propagated northwestward with a speed similar to the northwestward movement of Bill. The moisture budgets associated with both the large-scale and the tropical cyclone scale motions indicate that persistent low-level easterly-southeasterly flow transported moisture into the inner core of the tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation of the tropical cyclone transported moisture into the eyewall to support eyewall convection, providing sufficient latent heating to counteract energy loss due to surface friction and causing the storm to weaken relatively slowly after landfall. Warming and a westward extension of the upper-level easterly flow led to westward propagation of the environmental flow in the mid-lower troposphere. As a result, Bill was persistently embedded in an environment of deep easterly flow with high humidity, weak vertical wind shear, convergence in the lower troposphere, and divergence in the upper troposphere. These conditions are favorable for both significant intensification prior to landfall and maintenance of the tropical cyclone after landfall.

  6. On the Relationship between Tropical Moisture Exports and Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, Peter; Wernli, Heini; Gläser, Gregor; Boleti, Eirini; Joos, Hanna; Binder, Hanin

    2016-04-01

    Tropical moisture export (TME) events are an important element of the global circulation and contribute significantly to regional precipitation. They are defined here on the basis of trajectories starting in the tropical troposphere and reaching a water vapor flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 poleward of 35° latitude. TME frequency shows four marked occurrence maxima in both hemispheres with varying seasonal cycles. In some cases TMEs can be linked to similar phenomena of atmospheric flow such as Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) or Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). For example, 90% of all ARs affecting the US West Coast during December-May are connected to TME events, but the tropical moisture source is less important during the more active AR season June-November. In addition to these climatological TME characteristics we discuss two aspects of their relationship to extratropical cyclones: Case studies indicate that (i) cyclones traveling along the southern fringes of the midlatitude storm track can instigate the export of tropical moisture ahead of their cold fronts, and (ii) the tropical moisture can fuel latent heat release in the cyclone and therefore contribute to its intensification. A long-term statistical analysis of passages of TME trajectories through areas with closed isobars surrounding active cyclones in the northern hemisphere reveals a surprisingly small number of encounters, particularly in winter. The majority of hits occur south of 40°N and there is no statistically significant relationship with cyclone intensification. The results suggest that TMEs often pass relatively far from cyclone centers where vertical motions tend to be moderate. This prevents an early rainout of the tropical moisture and allows the export into higher latitudes. For the same reasons we expect TMEs to "avoid" WCBs with roots at low latitudes. This interpretation is consistent with the fact that most TME maxima are located along the western flanks of subtropical high-pressure systems.

  7. Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Jinhua; Li, Tim; Tan, Zhemin; Zhu, Zhiwei

    2016-02-01

    evaporation and cool the SST in situ. Cold SSTA in northern Indian Ocean further suppress local convection, inducing anomalous westerlies to its east, leading to enhanced cyclonic vorticity and low surface pressure over the WNP monsoon trough region. Idealized numerical experiments further confirm this Indian Ocean relaying effect, through which cold SSTA in the tropical Atlantic exert a remote impact to circulation in the WNP.

  8. TRMM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Narelle

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated, 3-D flyby of Major Cyclone Narelle was created using data on Jan. 11, from NASA's TRMM satellite. Narelle's wind speeds were near 132 mph. A few thunderstorm towers in Narelle's eye ...

  9. Wind waves in tropical cyclones: satellite altimeter observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golubkin, Pavel; Kudryavtsev, Vladimir; Chapron, Bertrand

    2016-04-01

    Results of investigation of wind-wave generation by tropical cyclones using satellite altimeter data are presented. Tropical cyclones are generally relatively small rapidly moving low pressure systems that are capable of generating severe wave conditions. Translation of a tropical cyclone leads to a prolonged period of time surface waves in the right sector remain under high wind forcing conditions. This effect has been termed extended fetch, trapped fetch or group velocity quasi-resonance. A tropical cyclone wave field is thus likely more asymmetrical than the corresponding wind field: wind waves in the tropical cyclone right sector are more developed with larger heights than waves in the left one. A dataset of satellite altimeter intersections of the Western Pacific tropical cyclones was created for 2010-2013. Data from four missions were considered, i.e., Jason-1, Jason-2, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa. Measurements in the rear-left and front-right sectors of tropical cyclones were examined for the presence of significant wave asymmetry. An analytical model is then derived to efficiently describe the wave energy distribution in a moving tropical cyclone. The model essentially builds on a generalization of the self-similar wave growth model and the assumption of a strongly dominant single spectral mode in a given quadrant of the storm. The model provides a criterion to anticipate wave enhancement with the generation of trapped abnormal waves. If forced during a sufficient timescale interval, also defined from this generalized self-similar wave growth model, waves can be trapped and large amplification of the wave energy will occur in the front-right storm quadrant. Remarkably, the group velocity and corresponding wavelength of outrunning wave systems will become wind speed independent and solely relate to the translating velocity. The resulting significant wave height also only weakly depends on wind speed, and more strongly on the translation velocity. Satellite

  10. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  11. Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-05-01

    Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

  12. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  13. Understanding the impact of model resolution on tropical cyclones in CAM5 using rotating radiative-convective equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Kevin; Chavas, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    In our continued effort to understand the climate system and improve its representation in general circulation models (GCMs) it is crucial to develop new methods to evaluate these models. This is certainly true as the GCM community advances towards high horizontal resolutions (i.e., grid spacing less than 0.5 degrees), which will require interpreting and improving the performance of many model components. Of specific interest is the simulation of tropical cyclones at these spatial scales. Idealized, or reduced complexity, frameworks can be used to investigate how model assumptions impact behavior across scales. Here we explore the implication of horizontal resolution on tropical cyclones in GCMs using an idealized global rotating radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) configuration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research and U.S. Department of Energy supported Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) is configured for an ocean-covered earth with diurnally varying, spatially uniform insolation and spatially uniform rotation, a setup that permits the formation of tropical cyclones throughout the entire global domain. CAM5 is run with the spectral element dynamics package at two horizontal resolutions: a standard resolution of approximately 1 degree grid spacing and a high-resolution of approximately 0.25 degree grid spacing. In this unique testbed, the statistics of tropical cyclone intensity and outer size, as measured by the azimuthal-mean radius of 12 m/s, are analyzed under both configurations. Implications of the results for both model development and tropical cyclone physics are discussed.

  14. Satellite-observed latent heat release in a tropical cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, R. F.; Rodgers, E. B.

    1977-01-01

    The latent heat release (LHR) and the distribution of rainfall rate of a tropical cyclone as it grows from a tropical disturbance to a typhoon were determined from Nimbus 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data. The LHR (calculated over a circular area of 4 deg latitude radius) increased during the development and intensification of the storm from a magnitude of 2.7 x 10 to the fourteenth W (in the disturbance stage) to 8.8 x 10 to the fourteenth W (typhoon stage). The latter value corresponds to a mean rainfall rate of 2.0 mm/h. The more intense the cyclone and the greater the LHR, the greater the percentage contribution of the larger rainfall rates to the LHR. As a cyclone intensifies, the higher rainfall rates tend to concentrate toward the center of the circulation.

  15. Impact of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cecil, Dan; Marchok, Tim

    2014-01-01

    While tropical cyclone rainfall has a large axisymmetric component, previous observational and theoretical studies have shown that environmental vertical wind shear leads to an asymmetric component of the vertical motion and precipitation fields. Composites consistently depict a precipitation enhancement downshear and also cyclonically downwind from the downshear direction. For consistence with much of the literature and with Northern Hemisphere observations, this is subsequently referred to as "Downshear-Left". Stronger shear magnitudes are associated with greater amplitude precipitation asymmetries. Recent work has reinforced the prior findings, and explored details of the response of the precipitation and kinematic fields to environmental vertical wind shear. Much of this research has focused on tropical cyclones away from land, to limit the influence of other processes that might distort the signal related to vertical wind shear. Recent evidence does suggest vertical wind shear can also play a major role in precipitation asymmetries during and after landfall.

  16. A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2016-07-01

    Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

  17. A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2015-05-01

    Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

  18. A 6000 year tropical cyclone record from Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan

    2011-03-01

    This study provides the first long-term tropical cyclone record from the Indian Ocean region. Multiple shore parallel ridges composed entirely of one species of marine cockle shell ( Fragum eragatum) standing between 3 and 6 m above mean sea level occur at Hamelin Pool, Shark Bay, Western Australia. The ridges record a tropical cyclone history between approximately 500 cal BP and 6000-7000 cal BP. Numerical storm surge and shallow water wave modelling techniques have been applied to determine the intensity (central pressure with uncertainty margins) of the storms responsible for deposition of the ridges, which has occurred approximately every 190-270 years. The ridges also record a 1700 year gap in tropical cyclone activity, between approximately 5400 cal BP and 3700 cal BP, where ridges deposited prior to this time were buried by a substantial deposit of aeolian fine-grained terrestrial sediment. The presence of this sedimentary unit suggests that this 1700 year period was characterised by a very dry climate; possibly the driest phase experienced in this region since the mid-Holocene. The absence of tropical cyclones at this time and the occurrence of this mega-drought may be linked.

  19. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA Sees Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall On Dec. 29, NASA's GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 83.6 mm (3.29 inches) per in a feeder band (of thunderstorms) northeast of the develo...

  20. Tropical storms: The socio-economics of cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noy, Ilan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the potential social and economic damage and loss wrought by tropical cyclones requires not only understanding how they will change in frequency and intensity in a future climate, but also how these hazards will interact with the changing exposures and vulnerabilities associated with social change.

  1. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to inner-core structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ge, Xuyang; Xu, Wei; Zhou, Shunwu

    2015-10-01

    In this study, the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) development on the inner-core structure of the parent vortex is examined using a pair of idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the radial profile of inner-core relative vorticity may have a great impact on its subsequent development. For a system with a larger inner-core relative vorticity/inertial stability, the conversion ratio of the diabatic heating to kinetic energy is greater. Furthermore, the behavior of the convective vorticity eddies is likely modulated by the system-scale circulation. For a parent vortex with a relatively higher inner-core vorticity and larger negative radial vorticity gradient, convective eddy formation and radially inward propagation is promoted through vorticity segregation. This provides a greater potential for these small-scale convective cells to self-organize into a mesoscale inner-core structure in the TC. In turn, convectively induced diabatic heating that is close to the center, along with higher inertial stability, efficiently enhances system-scale secondary circulation. This study provides a solid basis for further research into how the initial structure of a TC influences storm dynamics and thermodynamics.

  2. In-Situ Observations in Tropical Cyclones from Ocean Drifters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzel, J.; Centurioni, L. R.

    2013-05-01

    Ocean Drifters are cost effective, robust and high-quality instruments currently used to observe important variables in the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers during tropical cyclones. They have been configured to measure sea level atmospheric air pressure, wind velocity, solar insolation, sea surface and sub-surface temperature, ocean mixed-layer currents and three-dimensional ocean velocity (typically in depths of 0-150m). Ocean drifters have been successfully deployed in seven hurricanes (Atlantic Ocean) and in four typhoons (Pacific Ocean). Drifters are air-deployed about 18-24 hours ahead of an approaching tropical cyclone from a C-130J aircraft by the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters" at a spacing of 30-50km in a line perpendicular to the expected storm track. On average, the tropical cyclone center has passed within 20km of the nearest drifter, and as close as 3km. Measurements are taken every 15 minutes and are transmitted via Argos or Iridium satellites in real-time and posted to the Global Telecommunication System of the World Weather Watch. The instrument success rate has been 92% in all previous deployments during tropical cyclone conditions from Cat-1 to Cat-5. The high quality of drifter observations has been validated with co-located measurements from dropwindsondes, nearby ocean profiling floats and satellites. Distinct features of the coupled tropical cyclone atmosphere-ocean system observed by the drifters include: the exponential decrease of sea level pressure towards the minimum at the storm center, the radius of maximum winds and their strength, the cold ocean wake on the right hand side of the storm, the inertial currents in the upper ocean, the downward propagation of inertial waves in the ocean, the relatively fast recovery of the sea surface temperature in the cold wake and the longer endurance of the sub-surface wake. In addition, the drifters have detected the response of the atmospheric boundary layer to the ocean's cold wake by measuring

  3. Dynamically Downscaling Precipitation from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Champion, A.; Hodges, K.; Bengtsson, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent flooding events experienced by the UK and Western Europe have highlighted the potential disruption caused by precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. The question as to the effect of a warming climate on these events also needs to be addressed to determine whether such events will become more frequent or more intense in the future. The changes in precipitation can be addressed through the use of Global Climate Models (GCMs), however the resolution of GCMs are often too coarse to drive hydrological models, required to investigate any flooding that may be associated with the precipitation. The changes to the precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones are investigated by tracking cyclones in two resolutions of the ECHAM5 GCM, T213 and T319 for 20th and 21st century climate simulations. It is shown that the intensity of extreme precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones is predicted to increase in a warmer climate at both resolutions. It was also found that the increase in resolution shows an increase in the number of extreme events for several fields, including precipitation; however it is also seen that the magnitude of the response is not uniform across the seasons. The tails of the distributions are investigated using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) using a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) with a Peaks over Threshold (POT) method, calculating return periods for given return levels. From the cyclones identified in the T213 resolution of the GCM a small number of cyclones were selected that pass over the UK, travelling from the South-West to the North-East. These are cyclones that are more likely to have large amounts of moisture associated with them and therefore potentially being associated with large precipitation intensities. Four cyclones from each climate were then selected to drive a Limited Area Model (LAM), to gain a more realistic representation of the precipitation associated with each extra-tropical cyclone. The

  4. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  5. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial depth of the mixed layer and strength of the stratification level that set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the oceanic mixed layer. For example in oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean (and sea surface temperatures) quickly which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback from the ocean to the atmosphere. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture is available through the sea surface. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions (low vertical shear, anticyclonic circulation aloft), tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina and Rita in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. These effects and possible impact on TC deepening and weakening underscores the necessity of having complete 3-D ocean measurements juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements.

  6. Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musgrave, Kate D.; Taft, Richard K.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; McNoldy, Brian D.; Schubert, Wayne H.

    2012-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the life cycle of tropical cyclones in terms of a K-Vmax diagram. Such a diagram summarizes the time evolution of the integrated kinetic energy K and the maximum tangential wind Vmax, which respectively measure vortex size and intensity. A typical life cycle consists of an incipient stage in which K and Vmax slowly increase until Vmax≈25 m s-1, a deepening stage in which K and Vmax increase more rapidly until Vmax≈60 m s-1, and finally a mature stage in which K continues to grow at approximately the same rate while Vmax remains fixed or even decreases. This typical life cycle can be diagnostically analyzed using a theoretical argument that is based on the balanced vortex model and, in particular, on the associated geopotential tendency equation. This is a second order partial differential equation containing the diabatic forcing and, under idealized conditions, two spatially varying coefficients: the static stability and the inertial stability, whose ratio determines the local Rossby length ℓ. Thus, the balanced azimuthal wind and temperature tendencies in a tropical vortex depend not only on the diabatic forcing, but also on the spatial distribution of ℓ. Under the simplifying assumption that the diabatic heating and the associated response are confined to the first internal vertical mode, the geopotential tendency equation reduces to a radial structure equation, which can be solved numerically. These solutions illustrate how the vortex response to diabatic heating depends on whether this heating lies in the large Rossby length region outside the radius of maximum wind or in the small Rossby length region inside the radius of maximum wind. Tangential wind tendencies are found to be hypersensitive to the location of the diabatic heating relative to the small Rossby length region in the vortex core.

  7. Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musgrave, Kate D.; Taft, Richard K.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; McNoldy, Brian D.; Schubert, Wayne H.

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the life cycle of tropical cyclones in terms of a K-Vmax diagram. Such a diagram summarizes the time evolution of the integrated kinetic energy K and the maximum tangential wind Vmax, which respectively measure vortex size and intensity. A typical life cycle consists of an incipient stage in which K and Vmax slowly increase until Vmax≈25 m s-1, a deepening stage in which K and Vmax increase more rapidly until Vmax≈60 m s-1, and finally a mature stage in which K continues to grow at approximately the same rate while Vmax remains fixed or even decreases. This typical life cycle can be diagnostically analyzed using a theoretical argument that is based on the balanced vortex model and, in particular, on the associated geopotential tendency equation. This is a second order partial differential equation containing the diabatic forcing and, under idealized conditions, two spatially varying coefficients: the static stability and the inertial stability, whose ratio determines the local Rossby length ℓ. Thus, the balanced azimuthal wind and temperature tendencies in a tropical vortex depend not only on the diabatic forcing, but also on the spatial distribution of ℓ. Under the simplifying assumption that the diabatic heating and the associated response are confined to the first internal vertical mode, the geopotential tendency equation reduces to a radial structure equation, which can be solved numerically. These solutions illustrate how the vortex response to diabatic heating depends on whether this heating lies in the large Rossby length region outside the radius of maximum wind or in the small Rossby length region inside the radius of maximum wind. Tangential wind tendencies are found to be hypersensitive to the location of the diabatic heating relative to the small Rossby length region in the vortex core.

  8. Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leppert, Kenneth D., II; Cecil, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due

  9. An Evaluation of the Precipitation Distribution in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atallah, E.; Bosart, L.

    2004-05-01

    Often, precipitation forecasts associated with landfalling tropical cyclones are based on a simple algorithm where the maximum 24-h precipitation (in inches) is forecast by 100/v, where v (in m.p.h.) is the translational speed of the cyclone. This algorithm, however, provides little insight as to the precipitation distribution and intensity that can be expected in a landfalling tropical cyclone. Furthermore, several recent cases (Danny 1997, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene 1999) show that precipitation distribution and intensity can be drastically altered by interactions with mid-latitude troughs and jet streaks, which often result in extratropical transitions. Occasionally, these interactions produce catastrophic rainfalls as illustrated by hurricane Floyd in September 1999. This talk will present diagnostics of results from composites of several storms from a Quasi-Geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) perspective, designed to elucidate the important dynamics responsible for the modulation of the precipitation distribution and intensity. Results indicate that precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical systems may be characterized in the following ways: 1) Precipitation is heaviest along/very near the track of a storm when there is no significant interaction with a midlatitude trough, 2) Precipitation distribution is heaviest to the right of the track of the storm when downstream intensification of the ridge is important, and 3) Precipitation distribution is heaviest to the left of the storm track in a transitioning storm. Without large scale forcing for vertical motion associated with a midlatitude trough in situation 1, most of the greater vertical velocities remain near the storm core in the region of greatest diabatic heating and maximum wind speeds. In situation 2, the intensification of the downstream ridge ahead of a weak midlatitude trough can accentuate the PV gradient between the tropical system and the downstream ridge, enhancing the cyclonic PV

  10. Influence of tropical cyclones on tropospheric ozone: possible implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shankar Das, Siddarth; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narasimhan Uma, Kizhathur; Venkata Subrahmanyam, Kandula; Asatar Girach, Imran; Patra, Amit Kumar; Aneesh, Sundaresan; Viswanathan Suneeth, Kuniyil; Kishore Kumar, Karanam; Parashuram Kesarkar, Amit; Sijikumar, Sivarajan; Ramkumar, Geetha

    2016-04-01

    The present study examines the role of tropical cyclones in the enhancement of tropospheric ozone. The most significant and new observation reported is the increase in the upper-tropospheric (10-16 km) ozone by 20-50 ppbv, which has extended down to the middle (6-10 km) and lower troposphere ( < 6 km). The descent rate of enhanced ozone layer during the passage of tropical cyclone is 0.8-1 km day-1, which is three times that of a clear-sky day (non-convective). Enhancement of surface ozone concentration by ˜ 10 ppbv in the daytime and 10-15 ppbv in the night-time is observed during a cyclone. Potential vorticity, vertical velocity and potential temperature obtained from numerical simulation, reproduces the key feature of the observations. A simulation study indicates the downward transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere. Space-borne observations of relative humidity indicate the presence of sporadic dry air in the upper and middle troposphere over the cyclonic region. These observations quantitatively constitute experimental evidence of redistribution of stratospheric ozone during cyclonic storms.

  11. Do Speleothem Stable Isotope Records Contain Hidden Tropical Cyclone Histories? Exploring C-O Isotope Correlation Patterns for Indicators of Tropical Cyclone Masking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frappier, A. E.; Rossington, C.

    2013-12-01

    The newly-described tropical cyclone masking effect on stable isotope paleohydrological signals in speleothem records arises from the intermittent delivery of large pulses of isotopically distinct tropical cyclone rain. Recent work shows that 18-O depleted tropical cyclone stormwater depresses the δ18O value of speleothem calcite for months to years following a tropical cyclone event, masking the background stable isotope signal of persistent climate variability. Periods of high local storm activity can lead to speleothem calcite paleohydrological signals with significant wet biases on interannual to decadal timescales. Because speleothem carbon isotope ratios are independent of tropical cyclone rainfall, tropical speleothems are known to exhibit moderate C-O isotope covariation over time, periods when C-O isotope covariation breaks down and δ18O values are low may provide a marker for times when tropical cyclone masking is important. If so, existing speleothem stable isotope records from tropical cyclone-prone regions may contain signatures of tropical cyclone masking in the temporal evolution of C-O isotope covariation patterns. We present results from an exploratory analysis of several published speleothem records that are candidates for containing tropical cyclone masking signals. For each speleothem, overall C-O isotope covariation coefficients were calculated, and transient covariation patterns were analyzed using a sliding correlation index, the Covariation of Stable Isotopes (CoSI) index, and Local Correlation (LoCo). Local tropical cyclone historical and paleotempest records are compared and a method is presented to test for the presence of tropical cyclone masking intervals. The implications for speleothem paleoclimatology and paleotempestology are discussed.

  12. Relation between tropical cyclone heat potential and cyclone intensity in the North Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jangir, B.; Swain, D.; Udaya Bhaskar, T. V. S.

    2016-05-01

    Ocean Heat Content (OHC) plays a significant role in modulating the intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in terms of the oceanic energy available to TCs. TC Heat Potential (TCHP), an estimate of OHC, is thus known to be a useful indicator of TC genesis and intensification. In the present study, we analyze the role of TCHP in intensification of TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) through statistical comparisons between TCHP and Cyclone Intensities (CI). A total of 27 TCs (20 in the Bay of Bengal, and 7 in the Arabian Sea) during the period 2005-2012 have been analyzed using TCHP data from Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) model of Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services and cyclone best track data from India Meteorological Department. Out of the 27 cyclones analyzed, 58% (86%) in the Bay (Arabian Sea) have negative correlation and 42% (14%) cyclones have positive correlation between CI and TCHP. On the whole, more than 60% cyclones in the NIO show negative correlations between CI and TCHP. The negative percentage further increases for TCHP leading CI by 24 and 48 hours. Similar trend is also seen with satellite derived TCHP data obtained from National Remote Sensing Center and TC best track data from Joint Typhoon Warming Centre. Hence, it is postulated that TCHP alone need not be the only significant oceanographic parameter, apart from sea surface temperature, responsible for intensification and propagation of TCs in the NIO.

  13. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  14. Aspects of moat formation in tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozoff, Christopher Michael

    2007-12-01

    In order to increase our fundamental understanding of rapid intensity change in tropical cyclones (TCs), the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic conditions in TC eyewall replacement cycles and attendant moats are examined in this study. With the assistance of theory, observations, and cloud-resolving numerical simulations, the response of convection to typical environments outside of intense TC cores is addressed. In our analysis of the environmentally-dependent behaviors of deep, convective clouds, we consider new hypotheses and insights in rainband dynamics and concentric eyewall formation. Re-visiting basic stirring criteria for two-dimensional flows, we derive simple rules-of-thumb for the existence of deep, moist convection in environments of intense horizontal strain. These results are compared with numerical integrations of vorticity in a nondivergent barotropic model. The kinematic and thermodynamic environments during eyewall replacement cycles are documented through observational case studies incorporating dense arrays of dropsondes and aircraft data. Moat observations are compared with idealized balanced vortex theory to increase our understanding of moat dynamics. In addition, idealized cloud-resolving, numerical simulations are carried out to address how horizontal strain, vertical shear and the thermodynamic basic state influence individual deep, convective clouds in TC-like environments. We find that regions of intense horizontal strain are quite common outside of intense TC eyewalls. Observations show this region is also marginally unstable at low-levels and that, as a moat forms in concentric eyewall formation, the region outside of an inner eyewall acquires eye-like thermodynamics. Consistent with observations, idealized solutions to an axisymmetric, balanced-vortex model show that subsidence rapidly increases in the moat region as a secondary eyewall forms. In the midst of marginal convective instability, our idealized cloud simulations suggest

  15. Toarcian extreme warmth led to tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krencker, François-Nicolas; Bodin, Stéphane; Suan, Guillaume; Heimhofer, Ulrich; Kabiri, Lahcen; Immenhauser, Adrian

    2015-09-01

    Models predict that tropical cyclone intensity should increase on a warming planet. Observing this relationship remains, however, a difficult task since no clear trend is yet emerging from the anthropogenic record. The geological past offers the opportunity to study this relationship by looking at episodes of extreme warmth, such as the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, Early Jurassic, ca. 181 Ma). In this study, we document an increase in the occurrence of storm-related deposits during the onset of the T-OAE in the tide-dominated High Atlas Basin of Morocco, associated with a drastic deepening of the mean storm weather wave base. The palaeolatitude of the High Atlas Basin (18° North during the Early Jurassic) rules out winter storms as the driving mechanism behind the formation of these deposits and points to a dramatic intensification of tropical cyclone intensity during the T-OAE global warming. These new results, combined with the previously reported ubiquitous appearance of storm deposits during the T-OAE in tropical seas of the western Tethyan area, support the concept that the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will increase in the coming century due to the anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Dynamics of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikitina, Lidia

    This thesis describes an analytical study of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones. Observational analyses of hurricanes in the tropical atmosphere indicate the existence of spiral rainbands which propagate outwards from the eye and affect the structure and intensity of the hurricane. These disturbances may be described as vortex Rossby waves. The aim of this research is to study the propagation of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones and wave-mean-flow interactions near the critical radius where the mean flow angular velocity matches the phase speed of the waves. Depending on the wave magnitude, the problem can be linear or nonlinear. Analytical techniques including Laplace transforms, multiple scaling and asymptotic expansions are used to obtain approximate solutions of the governing linear and nonlinear equations. In this study we carry out asymptotic analyses to examine the evolution of the interactions near the critical radius in some two-dimensional configurations on an f-plane and a beta-plane. The results are used to explain some features of the tropical cyclone's development, namely, the change of angular wind in the critical layer, the secondary eyewall formation and the eyewall dynamics.

  17. Tropical Cyclone Monty Strikes Western Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) acquired these natural color images and cloud top height measurements for Monty before and after the storm made landfall over the remote Pilbara region of Western Australia, on February 29 and March 2, 2004 (shown as the left and right-hand image sets, respectively). On February 29, Monty was upgraded to category 4 cyclone status. After traveling inland about 300 kilometers to the south, the cyclonic circulation had decayed considerably, although category 3 force winds were reported on the ground. Some parts of the drought-affected Pilbara region received more than 300 millimeters of rainfall, and serious and extensive flooding has occurred.

    The natural color images cover much of the same area, although the right-hand panels are offset slightly to the east. Automated stereoscopic processing of data from multiple MISR cameras was utilized to produce the cloud-top height fields. The distinctive spatial patterns of the clouds provide the necessary contrast to enable automated feature matching between images acquired at different view angles. The height retrievals are at this stage uncorrected for the effects of the high winds associated with cyclone rotation. Areas where heights could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray.

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82 degrees north and 82 degrees south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 22335 and 22364. The panels cover an area of about 380 kilometers x 985 kilometers, and utilize data from blocks 105 to 111 within World Reference System-2 paths 115 and 113.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the

  18. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1997-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  19. Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

    2013-05-01

    The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one

  20. Variable-resolution frameworks for the simulation of tropical cyclones in global atmospheric general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarzycki, Colin

    The ability of atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve tropical cyclones in the climate system has traditionally been difficult. The challenges include adequately capturing storms which are small in size relative to model grids and the fact that key thermodynamic processes require a significant level of parameterization. At traditional GCM grid spacings of 50-300 km tropical cyclones are severely under-resolved, if not completely unresolved. This thesis explores a variable-resolution global model approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such GCM designs with multi-resolution meshes serve to bridge the gap between globally-uniform grids and limited area models and have the potential to become a future tool for regional climate assessments. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research (DoE/NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. Using an idealized tropical cyclone test, variable-resolution meshes are shown to significantly lessen computational requirements in regional GCM studies. Furthermore, the tropical cyclone simulations are free of spurious numerical errors at the resolution interfaces. Utilizing aquaplanet simulations as an intermediate test between idealized simulations and fully-coupled climate model runs, climate statistics within refined patches are shown to be well-matched to globally-uniform simulations of the same grid spacing. Facets of the CAM version 4 (CAM4) subgrid physical parameterizations are likely too scale sensitive for variable-resolution applications, but the newer CAM5 package is vastly improved in performance at multiple grid spacings. Multi-decadal simulations following 'Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project' protocols have been conducted with variable-resolution grids. Climate

  1. Tropical Cyclone - Equatorial Ionosphere Coupling: A Statistical Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhagavathiammal, G. J.

    2016-07-01

    This paper describes the equatorial ionosphere response to tropical cyclone events which was observed over the Indian Ocean. This statistical study tries to reveal the possible Tropical Cyclone (TC) - Ionosphere coupling. Tropical cyclone track and data can be obtained from the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. Digisonde/Ionosonde data for the equatorial latitudes can be obtained from Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory. It is believed that TC induced convection as the driving agent for the increased gravity wave activity in the lower atmosphere and these propagating gravity waves deposit their energy and momentum into the upper atmosphere as Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). The convective regions are identified with the help of Outgoing Long wave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA Climate Data Center/ Precipitation data from TRMM Statellite. The variability of ionospheric parameter like Total Electron Content (TEC), foF2, h'F2 and Drift velocity are examined during TC periods. This study will report the possibility of TC-Ionosphere Coupling in equatorial atmosphere.

  2. Hindcasts of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2015-04-01

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that evaluates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, a system of artificial neural networks is created to produce deterministic and probabilistic projections of IKE in North Atlantic tropical cyclones out to 72 hours from a series of relevant environmental and storm specific normalized input parameters. In an effort to assess its real-time skill, this IKE forecasting system is run in a mock-operational mode for the 1990 to 2011 North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hindcasts of IKE are produced in this manner by running the neural networks with hindcasted input parameters from NOAA's second generation Global Ensemble Forecasting System reforecast dataset. Ultimately, the results of the hindcast exercises indicate that the neural network system is capable of skillfully forecasting IKE in an operational setting at a level significantly higher than climatology and persistence. Ultimately, forecasts of IKE from these neural networks could potentially be an asset for operational meteorologists that would complement existing forecast tools in an effort to better assess the damage potential of landfalling tropical cyclones, particularly with regards to storm surge damage.

  3. Tropical cyclone Pam coastal impact survey in Vanuatu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, H. M.; Pilarczyk, J.; Kosciuch, T. J.; Hong, I.; Rarai, A.; Harrison, M. J.; Jockley, F. R.; Horton, B.

    2015-12-01

    Severe tropical cyclone Pam (Cat. 5, SSHS) crossed the Vanuatu archipelago with sustained winds of 270 km/h on March 13 and 14, 2015 and made landfall on Erromango. Pam caused the worst natural disaster in Vanuatu's recorded history since severe tropical cyclone Uma in 1987. Eleven fatalities were directly attributed to cyclone Pam and mostly due to lack of shelter from airborne debris. On March 6 Pam formed east of the Santa Cruz Islands and intensified while tracking southward along Vanuatu severely affecting the Shefa and Tafea Provinces. An international storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Vanuatu from June 3 to 17, 2015 to complement earlier local surveys. Cyclone Pam struck a remote island archipelago particularly vulnerable to the combined cyclonic multi-hazards encompassing extreme wind gusts, massive rainfall and coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and storm wave impacts. The team surveyed coastal villages on Epi, the Shepherd Islands (Tongoa and Mataso), Efate (including Lelepa), Erromango, and Tanna. The survey spanned 320 km parallel to the cyclone track between Epi and Tanna encompassing more than 45 sites including the hardest hit settlements. Coastal flooding profiles were surveyed from the shoreline to the limit of inundation. Maximum coastal flood elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, rafted debris and corroborated with eyewitness accounts. We surveyed 91 high water marks with characteristic coastal flood levels in the 3 to 7 m range and composed of storm surge with superimposed storm waves. Inundation distances were mostly limited to a few hundred meters. Coral boulders of more than 1 m diameter were measured on Erromango and sediment samples were collected at key sites across the archipelago. Infrastructure damage on traditional and modern structures was assessed. Eyewitnesses were interviewed at most sites to document the chronology of the wind and

  4. Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

  5. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  6. Relationship of tropical-cyclone-induced remote precipitation with tropical cyclones and the subtropical high

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Rui; Ding, Zhiying; You, Sangjie; Xu, Haiming

    2016-09-01

    This study concerns the precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) before the TC arrives, which will be referred to as TC remote precipitation (TRP). Based on the distribution characteristics of the non-rotational wind and the divergent-wind vertical circulation related to TC, the subtropical high, and TRP of 45 TRP events during June, July, and August of 2000‒2009, the relationships among these three entities (TC, subtropical high, and TRP) can be categorized into four patterns. The first pattern accounts for the highest proportion of the TRP events (59%), and a conceptual model is then provided for this pattern. The primary characteristics of this model are as follows: TC, the subtropical high, and TRP can interact with each other through the divergent-wind secondary circulation at both sides of the ridge line of the subtropical high (between the subtropical high and TC, and between the subtropical high and TRP). At the upper level (150 or 200 hPa), the northward non-rotational wind from the TC converged toward the subtropical high ridge line and subsided, and at 950 hPa the divergent wind from the ridge line of the subtropical high converged toward TC; these constructed the secondary circulation between TC and the subtropical high. In the meantime, the southward nonrotational wind at the upper level (150 or 200 hPa) from TRP and the divergent wind at 950 hPa from the subtropical high ridge line toward TRP constructed the secondary circulation between TRP and the subtropical high. As TC and TRP interacted with each other, the subtropical high ridge line was usually under the downdraft area of the whole atmosphere. The other three patterns are different from the first pattern mainly in terms of the intensity and position of the non-rotational-wind secondary circulation. The numerical simulation of the Beijing 7•21 rainstorm confirmed the relationship among TC, the subtropical high, and TRP, indicating that when the interaction weakened, the TRP also

  7. Relationship of tropical-cyclone-induced remote precipitation with tropical cyclones and the subtropical high

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Rui; Ding, Zhiying; You, Sangjie; Xu, Haiming

    2015-12-01

    This study concerns the precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) before the TC arrives, which will be referred to as TC remote precipitation (TRP). Based on the distribution characteristics of the non-rotational wind and the divergent-wind vertical circulation related to TC, the subtropical high, and TRP of 45 TRP events during June, July, and August of 2000‒2009, the relationships among these three entities (TC, subtropical high, and TRP) can be categorized into four patterns. The first pattern accounts for the highest proportion of the TRP events (59%), and a conceptual model is then provided for this pattern. The primary characteristics of this model are as follows: TC, the subtropical high, and TRP can interact with each other through the divergent-wind secondary circulation at both sides of the ridge line of the subtropical high (between the subtropical high and TC, and between the subtropical high and TRP). At the upper level (150 or 200 hPa), the northward non-rotational wind from the TC converged toward the subtropical high ridge line and subsided, and at 950 hPa the divergent wind from the ridge line of the subtropical high converged toward TC; these constructed the secondary circulation between TC and the subtropical high. In the meantime, the southward nonrotational wind at the upper level (150 or 200 hPa) from TRP and the divergent wind at 950 hPa from the subtropical high ridge line toward TRP constructed the secondary circulation between TRP and the subtropical high. As TC and TRP interacted with each other, the subtropical high ridge line was usually under the downdraft area of the whole atmosphere. The other three patterns are different from the first pattern mainly in terms of the intensity and position of the non-rotational-wind secondary circulation. The numerical simulation of the Beijing 7•21 rainstorm confirmed the relationship among TC, the subtropical high, and TRP, indicating that when the interaction weakened, the TRP also

  8. Examining Tropical Cyclone - Kelvin Wave Interactions using Adjoint Diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, C. A.; Doyle, J. D.; Hong, X.

    2015-12-01

    Adjoint-based tools can provide valuable insight into the mechanisms that influence the evolution and predictability of atmospheric phenomena, as they allow for the efficient and rigorous computation of forecast sensitivity to changes in the initial state. We apply adjoint-based tools from the non-hydrostatic Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to explore the initial-state sensitivity and interactions between a tropical cyclone and atmospheric equatorial waves associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Indian Ocean during the DYNAMO field campaign. The development of Tropical Cyclone 5 (TC05) coincided with the passage of an equatorial Kelvin wave and westerly wind burst associated with an MJO that developed in the Indian Ocean in late November 2011, but it was unclear if and how one affected the other. COAMPS 24-h and 36-h adjoint sensitivities are analyzed for both TC05 and the equatorial waves to understand how the evolution of each system is sensitive to the other. The sensitivity of equatorial westerlies in the western Indian Ocean on 23 November shares characteristics with the classic Gill (1980) Rossby and Kelvin wave response to symmetric heating about the equator, including symmetric cyclonic circulations to the north and south of the westerlies, and enhanced heating in the area of convergence between the equatorial westerlies and easterlies. In addition, there is sensitivity in the Bay of Bengal associated with the cyclonic circulation that eventually develops into TC05. At the same time, the developing TC05 system shows strongest sensitivity to local wind and heating perturbations, but sensitivity to the equatorial westerlies is also clear. On 24 November, when the Kelvin wave is immediately south of the developing tropical cyclone, both phenomena are sensitive to each other. On 25 November TC05 no longer shows sensitivity to the Kelvin wave, while the Kelvin Wave still exhibits some weak sensitivity to TC05. In

  9. The relationship of tropical cyclone size with ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camargo, S. J.; Knaff, J. A.; Chavas, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, two independent tropical cyclone size satellite-based datasets were developed, the first by Jonh Knaff and collaborators (Knaff et al. 2014) and the second by Daniel Chavas and collaborators (Chavas et al. 2015). Estimates of TC size are available for all basins for the period 1978-2013. The climatological characteristics of TC size show interesting properties, varying by basin, TC intensity and latitude. Here we further analyze these datasets, by considering the dependence of TC size with the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in various basins. Preliminary results in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, show that the TC size distributions in these basins are statistically significant distinct in El Niño and La Niña years and are basin dependent. Furthermore, these shifts in the TC size distribution are not the same for all types of storms, with different TC size distributions shifts with ENSO phase for tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. In this talk, we will present our results of on how TC distributions in all basins vary with ENSO and TC characteristics, such as intensity, lifetime, latitude, and seasonality. The differences and similarities between the results of the 2 size datasets will also be discussed. References: Chavas, D.R., N. Lin, W. Dong, and Y. Lin, 2015: Observed tropical cyclone size revisited. In prep.Knaff, J.A., S.P. Longmore, and D.A. Molenar, 2014: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. J. Climate, 27, 455-476.

  10. Tropical cyclone waves detected with infrasound sensor array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-02-01

    The strong winds of a tropical cyclone whip up the sea surface, driving ocean waves a dozen meters high. When one such ocean wave runs into another wave that has an equal period but is traveling in the opposite direction, the interaction produces low-frequency sound waves that can be detected thousands of kilometers away. The infrasound signals produced by interacting ocean surface waves—known as microbarom—have typical frequencies around 0.2 hertz. Researchers previously determined that as a hurricane travels along its track, early waves generated by the storm will interact with those generated later on, producing a strong microbarom signal in the storm's wake. Researchers also found, however, that microbarom signals are produced by regular surface ocean behavior, including swell, surface waves, and nontropical cyclone storms.

  11. Relation of tropical cyclone structure with thundersorm activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevtsov, B. M.; Permyakov, M. S.; Potalova, E. Yu.; Cherneva, N. V.; Holzworth, Robert

    2015-11-01

    Synoptic and mesoscale cyclone systems over an ocean and seas are often accompanied by thunderstorm activity, which intensity and spatial distribution are modulated by the dynamic structure of these systems. The paper considers a method connecting the parameters of this thunderstorm activity with weather system structures over oceans and seas with mesoscale formation intensities and forms in these systems determined by driving wind vortex fields of scatterometers and by satellite images in visible and infrared ranges. On the example of separate tropical cyclones (TC) of 2005-2013, the relation of lightning discharge frequency and density in the TC area of influence and spatial distribution of driving wind vortex is shown. The work was supported by the Russian-American Grant RUG1-7084-PA- 13 in the area of fundamental researches of FEB RAS and CRDF.

  12. Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when

  13. Disaster triggers disaster: Earthquake triggering by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Tsukanov, I.

    2011-12-01

    Three recent devastating earthquakes, the 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 2010 M=7.0 Leogane (Haiti), 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan), and additional three moderate size earthquakes (6tropical mountainous areas shortly after very wet tropical cyclones (hurricane or typhoon) hit the very same area. The most familiar example is Haiti, which was hit during the late summer of 2008 by two hurricanes and two tropical storms (Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) within 25 days. A year an a half after this very wet hurricane season, the 2010 Leogane earthquake occurred in the mountainous Haiti's southern peninsula and caused the death of more than 300,000 people. The other cases are from Taiwan, which is characterized by a high seismicity level and frequent typhoon landfall. The three wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years were Morakot (in 2009, with 2885 mm or rain), Flossie (1969, 2162 mm) and Herb (1996, 1987 mm)[Lin et al., 2010]. Each of this three very wet storms was followed by one or two main-shock M>6 earthquake that occurred in the central mountainous area of Taiwan within three years after the typhoon. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by 2009 M=6.2 Nantou and 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes; the 1969 Flossie typhoon was followed by an M=6.3 earthquake in 1972; and the 1996 Herb typhoon by the 1998 M=6.2 Rueyli and 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquakes. The earthquake catalog of Taiwan lists only two other M>6 main-shocks that occurred in Taiwan's central mountainous belt, one of them was in 1964 only four months after the wet Typhoon Gloria poured heavy rain in the same area. We suggest that the close proximity in time and space between wet tropical cyclones and earthquakes reflects a physical link between the two hazard types in which these earthquakes were triggered by rapid erosion induced by tropical cyclone's heavy rain. Based on remote sensing observations, meshfree finite element modeling, and Coulomb failure stress analysis, we show that the

  14. Numerical modeling of wind waves generated by tropical cyclones using moving grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolman, Hendrik L.; Alves, Jose-Henrique G. M.

    A version of the WAVEWATCH III wave model featuring a continuously moving spatial grid is presented. The new model option/version is intended for research into wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in deep water away from the coast. The main advantage of such an approach is that the cyclones can be modeled with spatial grids that cover much smaller areas than conventional fixed grids, making model runs with high spatial resolution more economically feasible. The model modifications necessary are fairly trivial. Most complications occur due to the Garden Sprinkler effect (GSE) and methods used to mitigate it. The basic testing of the model is performed using idealized wind fields consisting of a Rankine vortex. The model is also applied to hurricane Lili in the Gulf of Mexico in October 2002. The latter application shows that the moving grid approach provides a natural way to deal with hurricane wind fields that have a high-resolution in space, but a low resolution in time. Although the new model version is originally intended for tropical cyclones, it is suitable for high-resolution modeling of waves due to any moving weather pattern.

  15. Structural analysis of tropical cyclone using INSAT-3D observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.

    2016-05-01

    The continuous observations from visible and thermal infrared (TIR) channels of geostationary satellites are highly useful for obtaining the features associated with the shape and dynamics of cloud structures within the tropical cyclones (TCs). As TC develops from an unstructured cloud cluster and intensifies, the cloud structures become more axisymmetric around the centre of the TC. To better understand the structure of TC during different stages of its evolution i.e. from its cyclogenesis to maturity and dissipation, the continuous satellite observations plays a key role. The high spatial and temporal resolution observations from geostationary satellites are very useful in order to analyze the cloud organization during the cyclogenesis. The gradient of the brightness temperatures measures the level of symmetry of each structure, which characterizes the degree of cloud organization of the TC. In the present work, the structural analysis of TC during its life period using the observations from Indian geostationary satellite INSAT-3D has been discussed. The visible and TIR observations from INSAT-3D satellite were used to fix the center position of the cyclone which is an input for the cyclone track and intensity prediction models. This data is also used to estimate the intensity of cyclone in the advanced Dvorak technique (ADT), and in the estimation of radius of maximum winds (Rmax) of TC which is an essential input parameter for the prediction of storm surge associated to the cyclones. The different patterns of cloud structure during the intensification stage, eye-wall formation and dissipation have been discussed. The early identification of these features helps in predicting the rapid intensification of TC which in turn improves the intensity predictions.

  16. Hydrological Balance in Tropical Cyclones with Scatterometer and TRMM Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Hua, Hu; Tang, Wenqing

    2000-01-01

    Precipitation over oceans can be estimated from the radar and the microwave radiometer of the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). It can also be estimated from the divergence of the vertically integrated water vapor transport, through the conservation principle, assuming evaporation is relatively small. In tropical cyclones, the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor is highly dependent on the vertical transport and, therefore, on the wind divergence. Spaceborne scatterometers provide surface wind velocity and, therefore, surface wind divergence at spatial resolutions that are much higher than products of numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, ocean surface winds derived from the observations of space-based scatterometers and surface precipitation measured by TRMM were objectively interpolated to the same time and location during the passage of a tropical cyclone. Surface precipitation distribution was derived from wind and humidity profiles provided by NWP. When the surface level winds of NWP were replaced by the scatterometer winds, the surface precipitation patterns computed with the conservation method were found to be significantly changed and the new patterns are much closer in agreement with the patterns observed by TRMM.

  17. Radio occultation bending angle anomalies during tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, R.; Neubert, T.; Syndergaard, S.; Nielsen, J.

    2011-02-01

    The tropical deep convection affects the radiation balance of the atmosphere changing the water vapor mixing ratio and the temperature of the upper troposphere lower stratosphere. The aim of this work is to better understand these processes and to investigate if severe storms leave a significant signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from different GPS radio occultation missions (COSMIC, GRACE, CHAMP, SACC and GPSMET), we selected 1194 profiles in a time window of 3 h and a space window of 300 km from the eye of the cyclone. We show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger than the climatology in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and that a double tropopause during deep convection can easily be detected using this technique. Comparisons with co-located radiosondes, climatology of tropopause altitudes and GOES analyses are also shown to support the hypothesis that the bending angle anomaly can be used as an indicator of convective towers. The results are discussed in connection to the GPS radio occultation receiver which will be part of the Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) payload on the International Space Station.

  18. Radio occultation bending angle anomalies during tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, R.; Neubert, T.; Syndergaard, S.; Nielsen, J. K.

    2011-06-01

    The tropical deep convection affects the radiation balance of the atmosphere changing the water vapor mixing ratio and the temperature of the upper troposphere lower stratosphere. The aim of this work is to better understand these processes and to investigate if severe storms leave a significant signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from different GPS radio occultation missions (COSMIC, GRACE, CHAMP, SACC and GPSMET), we selected 1194 profiles in a time window of 3 h and a space window of 300 km from the eye of the cyclone. We show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger than the climatology in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and that a double tropopause during deep convection can easily be detected using this technique. Comparisons with co-located radiosondes, climatology of tropopause altitudes and GOES analyses are also shown to support the hypothesis that the bending angle anomaly can be used as an indicator of convective towers. The results are discussed in connection to the GPS radio occultation receiver which will be part of the Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) payload on the International Space Station.

  19. Buoyancy in tropical cyclones and other rapidly rotating atmospheric vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Roger K.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Zhu, Hongyan

    2005-07-01

    Motivated primarily by its application to understanding tropical-cyclone intensification and maintenance, we re-examine the concept of buoyancy in rapidly rotating vortices, distinguishing between the buoyancy of the symmetric balanced vortex or system buoyancy, and the local buoyancy associated with cloud dynamics. The conventional definition of buoyancy is contrasted with a generalized form applicable to a vortex, which has a radial as well as a vertical component. If, for the special case of axisymmetric motions, the balanced density and pressure distribution of a rapidly rotating vortex are used as the reference state, the buoyancy field then characterizes the unbalanced density perturbations, i.e. the local buoyancy. We show how to determine such a reference state without approximation. The generation of the toroidal circulation of a vortex, which is necessary for vortex amplification, is characterized in the vorticity equation by the baroclinicity vector. This vector depends, inter-alia, on the horizontal (or radial) gradient of buoyancy evaluated along isobaric surfaces. We show that for a tropical-cyclone-scale vortex, the buoyancy so calculated is significantly different from that calculated at constant height or on surfaces of constant σ ( σ = ( p - p*)/( ps - p*), where p is the actual pressure, p* some reference pressure and ps is the surface pressure). Since many tropical-cyclone models are formulated using σ-coordinates, we examine the calculation of buoyancy on σ-surfaces and derive an expression for the baroclinicity vector in σ-coordinates. The baroclinic forcing term in the azimuthal vorticity equation for an axisymmetric vortex is shown to be approximately equal to the azimuthal component of the curl of the generalized buoyancy. A scale analysis indicates that the vertical gradient of the radial component of generalized buoyancy makes a comparatively small contribution to the generation of toroidal vorticity in a tropical cyclone, but may be

  20. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error Predictions and Their Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, Kieran T.

    This dissertation aims to improve tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts by exploring the connection between intensity forecast error and parameters representing initial condition uncertainty, atmospheric flow stability, TC strength, and the large-scale environment surrounding a TC. After assessing which of these parameters have robust relationships with error, a set of predictors are selected to develop a priori estimates of intensity forecast accuracy for Atlantic basin TCs. The applications of these forecasts are then discussed, including a multimodel ensemble that unequally weights different intensity models according to the situation. The ultimate goal is to produce skillful forecasts of TC intensity error and use their output to enhance intensity forecasts.

  1. Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, L.; Gray, W. M.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

  2. Factors That Influence the Size of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Czaja, Arnaud; Van Kan, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) size is an important feature setting the extent of coastal flooding, the size of storm surge and area threatened by landfall. The importance of TC size is demonstrated comparing Hurricanes Sandy in 2012 and Bret in 1999. As a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale category-3 hurricane, the radius of gale-force wind of Hurricane Sandy exceeded 800 km prior to landfall, and the storm caused catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines, and damage up to an estimated total of 50 billion. Hurricane Bret, on the other hand, was a more intense category-4 hurricane with a radius of gale-force wind of only 140 km. Although Bret's intensity is considerable, damage was reported to be relatively light, totalling an estimated 60 million. The difference impacts are mainly caused by the difference in size. Despite the fact that a wide range of observed TC sizes has been recognised, the underlying factors that control both individual storm size and the climatological size variation remain mysterious. Here an idealized full-physics numerical cyclone model and a modified hurricane steady-state model (λ model) for TC wind profile are used to investigate the influence of environmental temperature and initial vortex properties on TC size. In the simulation we find that a sea surface temperature increase, a temperature decrease in the upper troposphere, a large or strong initial vortex can lead to the extension of TC size. The numerical model simulations show a Gaussian distribution with width, λ, of the moist entropy in the boundary layer. The width, λ, has good linear relationship with the size changes caused by different factors. With regards to TC size and intensity, we find that, unlike the intensity prediction based on the maximum potential intensity theory, it seems that there is no upper limit for TC size providing there is sufficient latent heat flux. The increase of TC size at the steady stage also causes a slight drop in intensity. In

  3. Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Jiang

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This…

  4. Abstracting the Pacific Ocean's Impact on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faghmous, J.; Le, M.; Liess, S.; Mesquita, M.; Kumar, V.

    2012-12-01

    The warming anomalies of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the near- equatorial Pacific Ocean (ENSO) have well documented global long-range weather teleconnections from rainfall in southern India to mudslides in the western United States. In this work, we focus on ENSO's teleconnections with North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Traditionally, ENSO's impact on Atlantic TCs has been abstracted by monitoring the warming of static regions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We propose that the spatial distribution of Pacific Ocean warming might provide better predictive insights into ENSO-Atlantic TC impact than warming anomalies alone. We present a distance-based ENSO index (S-ENSO for spatial ENSO) that tracks the location of the maximum near-tropical Pacific warming anomaly instead the absolute warming of a static region. Our spatial ENSO index correlates better with seasonal TC activity than standard ENSO indices, especially with increased lead times.

  5. The structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun (2002)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Leiming; Duan, Yihong; Zhu, Yongti

    2004-12-01

    Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysis of TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data, some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.

  6. Measuring wind and stress under tropical cyclones with scatterometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    2016-07-01

    Ocean surface stress, the turbulent transport of momentum, is largely derived from wind through a drag coefficient. In tropical cyclones (TC), scatterometers have difficulty in measuring strong wind and there is large uncertainty in the drag coefficient. We postulate that the microwave backscatter from ocean surface roughness, which is in equilibrium with local stress, does not distinguish weather systems. The reduced sensitivity of scatterometer wind retrieval algorithm under the strong wind is an air-sea interaction problem that is caused by a change in the behavior of the drag coefficient and not a sensor problem. Under this assumption, we applied a stress retrieval algorithm developed over a moderate wind range to retrieve stress under the strong winds of TCs. Over a moderate wind range, the abundant wind measurements and more established drag coefficient value allow sufficient stress data to be computed from wind to develop a stress retrieval algorithm for the scatterometer. Using unprecedented large amount of stress retrieved from the scatterometer coincident with strong winds in TC, we showed that the drag coefficient decreases with wind speed at a much steeper rate than previously revealed, for wind speeds over 25 m/s. The result implies that the ocean applies less drag to inhibit TC intensification and the TC causes less ocean mixing and surface cooling than previous studies indicated. With continuous and extensive coverage from constellations of scatterometers for several decades, the impact of tropical cyclones on the ocean and the feedback from the ocean are examined.

  7. Tropical Cyclone Warm Core Structure Retrieved from ATMS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, B.; Zhu, T.; Weng, F.

    2012-12-01

    The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board Suomi NPP was successfully launched on October 28, 2011. ATMS consists of a microwave radiometer that measures microwave radiances at 22 channels from 23.8 GHz to 183.3 GHz. Combining the capabilities of current Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), ATMS provides sounding observations with improved sampling and coverage for retrieving atmospheric vertical temperature and moisture profiles. A new algorithm is developed to retrieve atmospheric temperature profiles for tropical cyclone with ATMS data. The cross-track asymmetric pattern is investigated for ATMS three window channels. It is found that the asymmetric biases are close to the simulations when the polarization alignment angles are set between 91o and 92o. The algorithm is applied for Tropical Cyclone Giovanna case study and compared with the retrievals from NOAA-15 AMSU-A observation. ATMS retrievals clearly depict the cold temperature anomalies in TC spiral rain bands and the storm warm core. More case study results will be provided at the conference.

  8. Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

  9. Tropical Cyclones in Simulations of the Middle Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korty, R. L.; Zamora, R. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Toomey, M.

    2015-12-01

    The environmental conditions that support and sustain tropical cyclones are affected by the amount of solar radiation incident on the tropics, which varies on millennial timescales owing to orbital variations. During the middle Holocene, higher amounts of summer solar radiation 6000 years ago (6ka) increased thermal stability and pools of hot, dry air in the tropical troposphere, rendering the thermodynamic environment less favorable than in modern times. (The opposite response is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, where January-March anomalies yield more conducive conditions 6ka there than today.) Here we compare these changes in environmental conditions to tropical storms simulated by two distinct methods as well as to available geologic evidence from the middle Holocene. We find that storms directly spawned by global climate models respond to the changes as the thermodynamic environment predicts: a reduction 6ka in Northern Hemisphere, with an increase 6ka in the Southern Hemisphere. We derive an empirical genesis index that identifies the best fit between environmental conditions and the response in genesis. We also compare the results to storms generated using the statistical downscaling method pioneered by Emanuel. Here too the events similarly respond to the changes in the environmental conditions, but the amplitude of the changes is smaller than seen in the global climate models. We discuss some possible reasons for the differences as well as their implications for studies applying these methods to 21st century climate.

  10. Sea surface signature of tropical cyclones using microwave remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kil, Bumjun; Burrage, Derek; Wesson, Joel; Howden, Stephan

    2013-06-01

    Measuring the sea surface during tropical cyclones (TC) is challenging due to severe weather conditions that prevent shipboard measurements and clouds which mask the sea surface for visible satellite sensors. However, sea surface emission in the microwave L-band can penetrate rain and clouds and be measured from space. The European Space Agency (ESA) MIRAS L-band radiometer on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite enables a view of the sea surface from which the effects of tropical cyclones on sea surface emissivity can be measured. The emissivity at these frequencies is a function of sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface roughness, polarization, and angle of emission. If the latter four variables can be estimated, then models of the sea surface emissivity can be used to invert SSS from measured brightness temperature (TB). Actual measured TB from space also has affects due to the ionosphere and troposphere, which have to be compensated for, and components due to the galactic and cosmic background radiation those have to be removed. In this research, we study the relationships between retrieved SSS from MIRAS, and SST and precipitation collected by the NASA TMI sensor from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during Hurricane Isaac, in August 2012. During the slower movement of the storm, just before landfall on the vicinity of the Louisiana Shelf, higher precipitation amounts were associated with lower SSS and slightly increased SST. This increased trend of SST and lower SSS under regions of high precipitation are indicative of inhibited vertical mixing. The SMOS Level 2 SSS were filtered by a stepwise process with removal of high uncertainty in TB under conditions of strong surface roughness which are known to create noise. The signature of increased SST associated with increasing precipitation was associated with decreased SSS during the storm. Although further research is required, this study

  11. Tropical cyclone Dera, the unusual 2000/01 tropical cyclone season in the South West Indian Ocean and associated rainfall anomalies over Southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Struchtrup, Henning; Thatcher, Toby

    2007-08-01

    Austral summer 2000/01 in the southern African region was unusual in several respects. Tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Indian Ocean was substantially less than average despite large areas of this region showing anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SST) for much of the season. Many areas of southern Africa experienced above average rainfall with local flooding in parts of Mozambique. In the tropical southeast Atlantic, a large warm SST anomaly evolved off the coast of Angola and northern Namibia in late summer suggesting a Benguela Niño event. During the late summer (February April 2001), three particularly widespread and intense wet spells occurred over tropical southern Africa, one of which coincided with tropical cyclone Dera. This study considers the generation and evolution of the middle wet spell of late summer 2001 and its relationship with tropical cyclone Dera. This storm was generated in the northwestern part of the Mozambique Channel and then tracked more or less due south through the Channel and into the subtropical southwest Indian Ocean. Rainfall associated with Dera contributed to the ongoing floods over central Mozambique that arose from rains earlier in the season. Dera occurred in early March following a relatively long period of no tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Indian Ocean. A build up of favorable conditions during the preceding weeks contributed towards the storm whereas an anticyclonic anomaly east of Madagascar led to the northerly steering current and the southward track of tropical cyclone Dera out of the Mozambique Channel.

  12. Trade-off between Intensity and Frequency of Global Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, N. Y.; Elsner, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global tropical cyclone climate has been investigated with indicators of frequency, intensity and activity. However, a full understanding of global warming's influence on tropical cyclone climate remains elusive because of the incomplete nature of these indicators. Here we form a complete three-dimensional variability space of tropical cyclone climate where the variabilities are continuously linked and find that global ocean warmth best explains the out-of-phase relationship between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones. In a year with greater ocean warmth, the tropical troposphere is capped by higher pressure anomaly in the middle and upper troposphere even with higher moist static energy anomaly in the lower troposphere, which is thought to inhibit overall tropical cyclone occurrences but lead to greater intensities. Statistical consequence is the trade-off between intensity and frequency. We calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m/s over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones worldwide.

  13. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, Stephen; Leyland, Julian; Hackney, Christopher; Heasley, Eleanore; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Parsons, Daniel; Nicholas, Andrew; Aalto, Rolf; Best, Jim

    2015-04-01

    floodplain reaches of Cambodia. Furthermore, it is shown that the proportion of flux generated from tropical cyclones increases downstream and dominates (~60%) the flux observed around the confluence of the 3S basin (the Se San, Sre Pok and Se Kong Rivers) which drains the Vietnamese highlands. This implies future changes in cyclone tracks may impact upon sediment delivery to the Mekong delta.

  14. Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclones: Present and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavicchia, Leone; von Storch, Hans; Gualdi, Silvio

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean basin is characterized by the genesis of a large number of cyclonic systems. Most of the cyclones generated in this area have a baroclinic nature. A few storms every year, however, develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones, showing an axis-symmetric vertical profile, a warm core, a cloud-free eye surrounded by a cloud cover with spiral shape, and winds up to the hurricane speed. The strongest between such storms exhibit a striking resemblance to the lower-latitudes hurricanes, except for the mesoscale spatial extent, and have thus been termed medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes). Medicanes are considered rare phenomena, - the number of observed cases documented in the literature is around ten - but are associated to severe damage on coastal areas. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea, and to the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to construct a homogeneous statistics of the formation of medicanes. Using an approach (tested on a number of historical medicane cases) based on the high-resolution dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and exploiting an objective detection algorithm specifically designed to single out the features of medicanes, the statistical properties of such storms (annual cycle, decadal and inter-annual variability, geographical distribution, trends) over the last six decades have been studied in a systematic way, and the linkage between the frequency of medicanes formation and synoptic patterns has been investigated. It was found that medicanes occur indeed with a low frequency, and that they are formed mostly during the cold season in the western Mediterranean and in the region extending between the Ionian Sea and the northern coast of Africa. The analysis of the environmental factors related with the formation of medicanes shows that the genesis mechanism requires a sufficiently large difference between the sea surface temperature and the

  15. Tropical Cyclones in Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamora, R. A.; Korty, R. L.; Camargo, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    How tropical cyclones respond to large-scale changes in climate is an important and complex question. Here we study the question using the response to the climate forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Utilizing two detecting and tracking algorithms of tropical cyclones (TC), we assess the sensitivity of the genesis and frequency of TCs in a 1° x 1° simulation of a global climate model (CCSM), a limited-area simulation (western north Pacific; WNP) of the higher resolution WRF model (36 km horizontal resolution), and the statistical downscaling approach developed by Emanuel. We assess how changes between the LGM and 20th century climatology of TCs are related to changes in the large-scale environmental variables known to be important to TCs (e.g. vorticity, wind shear, and available moisture). Several facets of the TC climatology at the LGM are similar across all three modeling techniques: regions that spawn TCs and their seasonal cycle at the LGM is similar to the present-day distribution, while the total counts are slightly reduced at the LGM. The average intensity in the WRF model (which features resolution high enough to resolve strong storms) is similar between the two climates, though the distribution of intensity is more concentrated at the LGM (there are fewer weak events and fewer of the strongest events at the LGM). Conditions are similarly favorable in much of the deep tropics at the LGM compared to the 20th century, particularly in the central and western Pacific, but conditions become more hostile at the subtropical margins. We compare the resulting climatology with the underlying changes in environmental factors, and empirically derive a genesis index to identify the best fit between changes in the factors and climatology of events.

  16. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using GDAPS (UM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kim, J.; Chang, K.; Byun, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    After the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing official five-day tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in 2003, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) started issuing official five-day forecasts of TCs in May 2012 after 2 year of beta test. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely erroneous track forecast is hypothesized to be more accurate than the non-selective consensus (NCON) of all model tracks that are used for the five-day forecasts. Conceptual models describing large track error mechanisms, which are related to known tropical cyclone motion processes being misrepresented in the dynamical models, are applied to forecasts during the 2012 western North Pacific typhoon season by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS (UM N512 L70)) which is KMA's main operational model. GDAPS (UM) is one of consensus members used in making KMA's five-day forecasts and thus analysis of its track error tendencies would be useful for forming a SCON forecast. All 72-h track errors greater than 320 km are examined on the basis of the approach developed by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b). Tropical-influenced error sources caused 37% (47 times / 126 erroneous forecasts) of the GDAPS (UM) large track forecast errors primarily because an incorrect beta effect-related process depicted by the model contributed to the erroneous forecasts. Midlatitude-influenced error sources accounted for 63% (79 times / 126 error cases) in the GDAPS (UM) erroneous forecasts mainly due to an incorrect forecast of the midlatitude system evolutions. It is proposed that KMA will be able to issue more reliable TC track information if a likely model track error is recognized by optimum use of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b) and a selective consensus track is then the basis for an improved warning.

  17. Role of Tropical Waves in Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Liang; Takahashi, Masaaki

    2016-04-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between the tropical waves and the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the period 1979-2011. Five wave types are considered in this study. It is shown that the TC genesis is strongly related to enhanced low-level vorticity and convection of tropical wave in all wave types but with significant difference in the TC modulation between wave dynamic and thermodynamic components. More TCs tend to form in regions of each wave with overlapping cyclonic vorticity and active convection. About 83.2% of TCs form within active phase of tropical waves, mainly in either one or two wave types. Each wave type is accounts for about 30% of all TC geneses except for the Kelvin waves that account for only 25.2% of TC geneses. The number of each wave type-related TC genesis consistently varies seasonally with peak in the TC season (July-November), which is attributed to the combined effect of both active wave probability and intensity change. The interannual variation of the TC genesis is well reproduced by the tropical wave-related TC genesis, especially in the region to east of 150°E. An eastward extension of the enhanced monsoon trough coincides with increased tropical wave activity by accelerated wave-mean flow interaction.

  18. Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: An example from Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Moyer, Ryan P.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Grottoli, Andrea G.

    2011-01-01

    Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ18O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ18O anomalies in marine carbonate δ18O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ18O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ18O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

  19. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

  20. The impact of the diurnal insolation cycle on the tropical cyclone heat engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Morgan E.; Perez-Betancourt, Diamilet; Wing, Allison A.

    A hurricane, or tropical cyclone, is understood as a heat engine that moves heat from the warm sea surface to the cold tropopause. The efficiency of this engine depends in part on the strength and duration of solar heating. Over land, peak rainfall associated with individual thunderstorms occurs in the late afternoon. Over ocean, with its markedly higher surface heat capacity, deep convection responds more to radiational cooling than daytime surface heating. However, the role of daily varying solar forcing on the dynamics of tropical cyclones is poorly understood. Recently, Dunion et al. (2014) reported significant, repeating diurnal behavior propagating outward from tropical cyclone centers, using infrared imagery from nine years of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. We study the impact of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones using a high resolution 3D numerical model, the System for Atmospheric Modeling (Khairoutdinov and Randall 2003). Simulations are run with and without variable sunlight. We are able to reproduce the observational finding of Dunion et al. (2014), and further identify a diurnally-varying residual circulation in the tropical cyclone at midlevels. The impact of the diurnal cycle on the equilibrium dynamics of tropical cyclones is also discussed.

  1. Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

  2. Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for "named storms," tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin reveal that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity (i.e., having seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates). For example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. For tropical storms, its 10-year moving average has more than doubled over the past 50 years, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of 3 or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, following a 25-year lull in activity. Taken together, the outlook for this year and immediately succeeding years is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above their long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

  3. Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jullien, Swen; Marchesiello, Patrick; Menkes, Christophe E.; Lefèvre, Jérôme; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Samson, Guillaume; Lengaigne, Matthieu

    2014-11-01

    This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air-sea coupling processes controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The coupling effect is analyzed through comparison of the coupled model with a companion forced experiment. Cyclogenesis patterns in the coupled model are closer to observations with reduced cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. This provides novel evidence of air-sea coupling impacting not only intensity but also spatial cyclogenesis distribution. Storm-induced cooling and consequent negative feedback is stronger for regions of shallow mixed layers and thin or absent barrier layers as in the Coral Sea. The statistical effect of oceanic mesoscale eddies on TC intensity (crossing over them 20 % of the time) is also evidenced. Anticyclonic eddies provide an insulating effect against storm-induced upwelling and mixing and appear to reduce sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. Cyclonic eddies on the contrary tend to promote strong cooling, particularly through storm-induced upwelling. Air-sea coupling is shown to have a significant role on the intensification process but the sensitivity of TCs to SST cooling is nonlinear and generally lower than predicted by thermodynamic theories: about 15 rather than over 30 hPa °C-1 and only for strong cooling. The reason is that the cooling effect is not instantaneous but accumulated over time within the TC inner-core. These results thus contradict the classical evaporation-wind feedback process as being essential to intensification and rather emphasize the role of macro-scale dynamics.

  4. Remote forcing of water levels by tropical cyclones in southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliot, Matthew; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

    2010-08-01

    Tropical cyclones (termed hurricanes and typhoons in other regions), are extreme events associated with strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in coastal areas) and cause extensive damage as a result of strong winds and flooding (caused by either heavy rainfall or ocean storm surges) in the immediate area of impact. The eastern Indian Ocean, particularly in the northwest region of Australia, is impacted by up to 10 tropical cyclones during the cyclone season, although direct impact of cyclones along the west and southwest coastlines is rare. However, the sub-tidal frequency component of sea level records along the west and south coasts of Western Australia indicates lagged correspondence with the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It is demonstrated that the tropical cyclones generate a continental shelf wave which travels along the west and south coasts of Australia up to 3500 km with speeds of 450-500 km day -1 (5.2-5.8 ms -1) with maximum trough to crest wave height of 0.63 m, comparable with the mean daily tidal range in the region. The shelf wave is identified in the coastal sea level records, initially as a decrease in water level, 1-2 days after the passage of the cyclone and has a period of influence up to 10 days. Amplitude of the shelf wave was strongly affected by the path of the tropical cyclone, with cyclones travelling parallel to the west coast typically producing the most significant signal due to resonance and superposition with local forcing. Analysis of water levels from Port Hedland, Geraldton, Fremantle and Albany together with cyclone paths over a ten year period (1988-1998) indicated that the tropical cyclones paths may be classified into 6 different types based on the amplitude of the wave.

  5. Avoided Impacts in Ensembles of Tropical Cyclone Damage Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Holland, G. J.; Towler, E.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter current levels of Tropical Cyclone (TC) damage, yet the degree of change and its importance relative to changes in exposure and vulnerability are debated. This study isolates the climate drivers of TC damage and develops an approach to translate climate model data directly to a measure of Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP). The actual damage then depends on a given user's impacted exposure and vulnerability. Our approach is motivated by recent work that highlighted the importance of accounting for TC size and TC translation speed in addition to maximum wind speed in driving TC damage. Since coarse resolution climate models are not able to adequately capture many TC characteristics, these key damaging parameters are modeled in terms of large-scale climate variables, to sidestep the need for information on individual TCs and to enable assessments of CDP directly from large-scale climate model data. The CDP is applied to ensembles of future climates generated under a range of anthropogenic forcing scenarios to assess the degree of avoided CDP under lower emission pathways. Users may then translate avoided CDP to avoided losses using relationships between CDP and their specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics.

  6. Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

  7. Observed three-dimensional structure of ocean cooling induced by Pacific tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guihua; Wu, Lingwei; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Ling, Zheng

    2016-07-01

    Sea surface cooling along tropical cyclone (TC) tracks has been well observed, but a complete understanding of the full three-dimensional structure of upper ocean TC-induced cooling is still needed. In this study, observed ocean temperature profiles derived from Argo floats and TC statistics from 1996 to 2012 are used to determine the three-dimensional structure of TC-induced cooling over the northwest Pacific. The average TC-induced sea surface temperature change derived from Argo reaches -1.4°C, which agrees well with satellite-derived estimates. The Argo profiles further reveal that this cooling can extend to a depth of ~30 m and can persist for about 20 days. The time scale of cooling recovery is somewhat longer in subsurface layers between a depth of ~10-15 m. Over the ocean domain where the mixed layer is shallower (deeper), the cooling is stronger (weaker), shallower (deeper), and more (less) persistent. The effect of initial MLD on the cooling derived from Argo observations may be only half of the idealized piecewise continuous model of tropical cyclone. These findings have implications for the total upper ocean heat content change induced by northwest Pacific TCs.

  8. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Spinup Time to the Initial Entropy Deficit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, B.; Corbosiero, K. L.; Rios-Berrios, R.; Alland, J.; Berman, J.

    2014-12-01

    The development timescale of a tropical cyclone from genesis to the start of rapid intensification in an axisymmetric model is hypothesized to be a function of the initial entropy deficit. We run a set of idealized simulations in which the initial entropy deficit between the boundary layer and free troposphere varies from 0 to 100 J kg-1 K-1. The development timescale is measured by changes in the integrated kinetic energy of the low-level vortex. This timescale is inversely related to the mean mass flux during the tropical cyclone gestation period. The mean mass flux, in turn, is a function of the statistics of convective updrafts and downdrafts. Contour frequency by altitude diagrams show that entrainment of dry air into updrafts is predominately responsible for differences in the mass flux between the experiments, while downdrafts play a secondary role. Analyses of the potential and kinetic energy budgets indicate less efficient conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy in the experiments with higher entropy deficits. Entrainment leads to the loss of buoyancy and the destruction of available potential energy. In the presence of strong downdrafts, there can even be a reversal of the conversion term. Weaker and more radially confined radial inflow results in less convergence of angular momentum in the experiments with higher entropy deficits. The result is a slower vortex spinup and a reduction in steady-state vortex size, despite similar steady-state maximum intensities among the experiments.

  9. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

  10. Tropical cyclone intensification trends during satellite era (1986-2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishtawal, C. M.; Jaiswal, Neeru; Singh, Randhir; Niyogi, D.

    2012-05-01

    Using International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS, version v03r03) analysis during satellite era (1986-2010) we determined the trends of intensification of tropical cyclones (TC) over all the global basins, except the North Indian Ocean. Over all the basins, the rate of TC intensification from 64 kt to first peak of intensity maxima (global average value = 104 kt) was found to be positive. The above trends were significant for 4 out of 5 basins, except the North West Pacific. The trends indicate that the TCs now intensify from 64 kt to 104 kt nearly 9 hours earlier than they did 25 years back. The maximum reduction in intensification time is noticed over the North Atlantic Ocean where the average time needed for TC to intensify from 64 kt to 112 kt has reduced by nearly 20 hours during the past 25-year period.

  11. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2016-02-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.

  12. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J

    2016-01-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology. PMID:26838056

  13. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2016-01-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology. PMID:26838056

  14. Revisiting trough interactions and tropical cyclone intensity change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peirano, C. M.; Corbosiero, K. L.; Tang, B. H.

    2016-05-01

    An updated climatology of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the presence of upper tropospheric trough forcing is presented. To control for changes in the background thermodynamic environment, a methodology that normalizes intensity change by the potential intensity of the TC is used to more narrowly focus on the effect of troughs compared to previous studies. Relative to the full sample of Atlantic TCs, troughs are a negative influence on intensification: trough interaction cases are 4% less likely to intensify and 5% more likely to weaken. Troughs are especially detrimental compared to TCs without trough forcing: trough interaction cases are 14% less likely to intensify and 13% more likely to weaken. Additionally, eddy flux convergence of angular momentum, previously shown to positively affect TC intensity change, is shown to be a weak predictor of intensity change compared to vertical wind shear, which is enhanced during a trough interaction.

  15. North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

  16. Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

    PubMed

    Carrigan, Adam D; Puotinen, Marji

    2014-05-01

    Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation. PMID:24474700

  17. The probability of tropical cyclone landfalls in Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonazzi, A.; Bellone, E.; Khare, S.

    2012-04-01

    The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active basin in terms of tropical cyclone and typhoon occurrences. The densely populated countries that form the western boundary of WNP basin -- e.g. China, Japan and the Philippines -- are exposed to extreme wind gusts, storm surge and fresh water flooding eventually triggered by Tropical Cyclones (TC) events. Event-based catastrophe models (hereafter cat models) are extensively used by the insurance industry to manage their exposure against low-frequency/high-consequence events such as natural catastrophes. Cat models provide their users with a realistic set of stochastic events that expands the scope of a historical catalogue. Confidence in a cat model ability to extrapolate peril and loss statistics beyond the period covered by observational data requires good agreement between stochastic and historical peril characteristics at shorter return periods. In WNP risk management practitioners are faced with highly uncertain data to base their decisions. Albeit 4 national agencies maintain best track catalogues, data are generally based on satellite imageries with very limited central pressure (CP) and maximum velocity (VMAX) measurements -- regular flight reconnaissance missions stopped in 1987. As a result differences up to 20 knots are found in estimates of VMAX from different agencies as documented in experiment IOP-10 during Typhoon Megi in 2010. In this work we present a comprehensive analysis of CP and VMAX probability distributions at landfall across the WNP basin along a set of 150 gates (100 km coast segments) based on best track catalogues from Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, China Meteorological Agency and Hong Meteorological Agency. Landfall distributions are then used to calibrate a random-walk statistical track model. A long simulation of 100,000 years of statistical TC tracks will ultimately constitute the central building block of a basin-wide stochastic catalogue of synthetic TC

  18. Developing an enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; de Wit, Roald; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Kunitsugu, Masashi; Caroff, Philippe; Chane-Ming, Fabrice

    2013-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are the most extreme weather phenomena which severely impact coastal communities and island nations. There is an ongoing research (i) on accurate analysis of observed trends in tropical cyclone occurrences, and (ii) how tropical cyclone frequency and intensity may change in the future as a result of climate change. Reliable historical records of cyclone activity are vital for this research. The Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program is dedicated to help Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste gain a better understanding of how climate change will impact their regions. One of the key PACCSAP projects is focused on developing a tropical cyclone archive, climatology and seasonal prediction for the regions. As part of the project, historical tropical cyclone best track data have been examined and prepared to be subsequently displayed through the enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean. Data from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington for 1969-1970 to 2010-2011 tropical cyclone seasons have been carefully examined. Errors and inconsistencies which have been found during the quality control procedure have been corrected. To produce a consolidated data set for the South Pacific Ocean, best track data from these four centres have been used. Specifically, for 1969-1970 to 1994-1995 tropical cyclone seasons, data from TCWCs in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington have been used. In 1995, RSMC Nadi, Fiji has been established with responsibilities for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and preparing best track data for the area south of the equator to 25°S, 160°E to 120°W. Consequently, data from RSMC Nadi have been used as a primary source for this area, starting from the 1995-1996 tropical cyclone season. These data have been combined with the data from

  19. The Impact of Dry Saharan Air on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    The controversial role of the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on tropical storm intensification in the Atlantic will be addressed. The SAL has been argued in previous studies to have potential positive influences on storm development, but most recent studies have argued for a strong suppressing influence on storm intensification as a result of dry air, high stability, increased vertical wind shear, and microphysical impacts of dust. Here, we focus on observations of Hurricane Helene (2006), which occurred during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) experiment. Satellite and airborne observations, combined with global meteorological analyses depict the initial environment of Helene as being dominated by the SAL, although with minimal evidence that the SAL air actually penetrated to the core of the disturbance. Over the next several days, the SAL air quickly moved westward and was gradually replaced by a very dry, dust-free layer associated with subsidence. Despite the wrapping of this very dry air around the storm, Helene intensified steadily to a Category 3 hurricane suggesting that the dry air was unable to significantly slow storm intensification. Several uncertainties remain about the role of the SAL in Helene (and in tropical cyclones in general). To better address these uncertainties, NASA will be conducting a three year airborne campaign called the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3). The HS3 objectives are: To obtain critical measurements in the hurricane environment in order to identify the role of key factors such as large-scale wind systems (troughs, jet streams), Saharan air masses, African Easterly Waves and their embedded critical layers (that help to isolate tropical disturbances from hostile environments). To observe and understand the three-dimensional mesoscale and convective-scale internal structures of tropical disturbances and cyclones and their role in intensity change. The mission objectives will be achieved using

  20. A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Chang, Simon W.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1994-01-01

    Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.

  1. Role of moist processes in the trajectories of mid-latitude surface cyclones within idealized simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coronel, Benoit; Ricard, Didier; Rivière, Gwendal; Arbogast, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies suggest that it is the misrepresentation of moist processes within extratropical cyclones that is responsible for many forecast failures. The effect of the latent heat release intensifying perturbations has been demonstrated in numerous studies but its effect on the trajectory has been less extensively studied. Our objective is to systematically study the influence of wet processes on the trajectories of surface cyclones using idealized simulations of the MESO-NH non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. The initial state of the simulations is defined as the sum of a zonal baroclinic jet and finite-amplitude synoptic-scale anomalies located to the south of the jet. Special attention is paid to identifying the dynamical processes acting on the motion of the surface cyclone along and across the jet. Two sets of initial conditions are introduced, one with a unique cyclonic anomaly near the surface, and another one with two cyclonic anomalies near the surface and tropopause in such a way that they interact baroclinically with each other. A first comparison is made between dry simulations having these two different initial conditions to see the impact of the upper-level anomaly in the motion of the surface cyclone. The second comparison is made between wet and dry simulations to study the influence of moist processes. The difference between the different simulations is interpreted in terms of potential vorticity (PV). In all simulations, a dipolar PV anomaly which is composed of an upstream cyclone and a downstream anticyclone is formed near the tropopause and above the surface depression. Using a PV inversion algorithm, we show that the trajectories of the surface cyclone in the various experiments mainly depend on the intensity and orientation of the upper-level dipolar PV anomaly. The upper-level anticyclonic PV being more intense in the moist run than in the dry run, it more rapidly advects the surface cyclone poleward. The consequence is that the surface

  2. Relative impact of climate indicators and aerosols on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiacchio, Marc; Pausata, Francesco; Messori, Gabriele; Hannachi, Abdel; Chin, Mian; Ekman, Annica; Barrie, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    This study assesses the most important environmental variables modulating tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in six different oceanic basins such as the East Pacific, West Pacific, North Atlantic, North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific. To determine their influence, we used multiple linear regression between TC frequency and variations in meteorological variables and circulation indices as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies over the tropical cyclone development areas for the period 1980-2009 (where the AOD was separated into the compounds black and organic carbon, sulfate dust and sea salt). Overall the low-level relative humidity in the North Atlantic, stratospheric aerosol burden in the East Pacific, and the black carbon burden in the North Indian basin showed the greatest relation with TC activity and were all with statistically significant and explained variances of 28%. Amongst the circulation modes of variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appeared to be most important to TC activity with significant variances of 29% in the South Indian Ocean and 25% in the East Pacific basins, respectively. We also examined the inter-basin relationship between the different environmental variables in one basin and the cyclone frequency in another basin. Overall the strongest connections were found between North Atlantic basin variables and North Indian TCs while the weakest links were found between West Pacific basin variables and South Pacific TCs. Lastly, because the strongest cooling of the lower stratospheric temperature was found over the North Atlantic since the last few decades and because the cooling could explain a variance of 15% of TC frequency in that same basin, we investigated five global climate models from the historical runs of the CMIP5 archive to determine whether they were able to capture this cooling in the lower stratosphere. Although the models were able to

  3. Climate Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 6000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.; Scileppi, E.; Lane, P.

    2006-12-01

    Reconstructions of extreme overwash events in backbarrier lagoons and wetlands from the Caribbean to the northeastern United States show similar patterns of event occurrence. Comparisons with instrumental and historical records indicate that most of these overwash layers were likely deposited by landfalling tropical cyclones. Over the last 6000 years intense tropical cyclones have deposited coarse grained laminae in a coastal lagoon on Vieques, Puerto Rico. Intervals with more frequent intense tropical cyclone strikes occurred at 5600-4200 years ago, 2500-1000 years ago, and 250 years ago to present. Similarly records from backbarrier wetlands in the New York/New Jersey Bight provide evidence of more frequent overwash in the last 300 years and 2200 to 900 years ago. An earlier active interval in New York is also evident and dates to sometime before 2700 years ago. Other shorter records from the northeastern United States also provide evidence of more frequent storm-induced deposition over the last few hundred years following a relative lull in overwash and presumably tropical cyclone landfalls. This increase in tropical cyclone landfalls occurs during the later half of the Little Ice Age (LIA) when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics were 2-3°C cooler than modern. Over the last several millennia a coherent pattern of climate change appears to have modulated intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic. The evolution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability over the late Holocene likely played an important role in controlling the frequency of intense tropical cyclones in the entire North Atlantic Basin, with intervals of fewer strong El Niño events being more favorable to intense tropical cyclone activity. In addition, variations in the West African monsoon, possibly tied to ENSO, may be an important control on the frequency of North Atlantic intense tropical cyclones. With increases in intense convective storms over tropical

  4. Impacts of Different Grades of Tropical Cyclones on Infectious Diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xin; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Objective Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011. Methods Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively. Conclusion All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population

  5. Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2013-11-01

    The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870-2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.

  6. Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Hud Hud on Coastal Region of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivek, G.; Srinivasa Kumar, T.

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangements of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. On 6th October 2014 Hud Hud originates from a low pressure system that formed under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea. On 9th October 2014 the IMD department classified the Hud Hud as a very severe cyclonic storm on IMD scale and category 4 on Staffir-Simpson scale. The cyclone hit the coast of Visakhapatnam on 12th October 2014 at wind speed of 175 km/h which caused extensive damage to the city and the neighbouring districts. The damage caused by Cyclone Hud Hud not only changed the landscape of the port city, but also made it the first city in the country to be directly hit by a cyclone since 1891 as per the records of the IMD. The remote sensing technique used here is NDVI. NDVI will separate vegetation and non-vegetation part. The NDVI will be classified in ERDAS and calculated the area using ARCGIS. The satellite data of 4th October 2014 show s before the cyclone, 14th October 2014 shows after the cyclone and 7th December 2014 after two month of cyclone.

  7. Interdecadal variation of Korea affecting tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yu-Mi; Kang, Sung-Dae; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2015-05-01

    This study analyzed a time series of average central pressure of tropical cyclone (TC) that affected Korea in summer season from 1965 to 2012. To determine whether climate regime shift exists in this time series, statistical change-point analysis was applied to this time series. The result showed that significant climate regime shift existed in 1989, that is, TC intensity from 1965 to 1988 (6588) was weaker than that from 1989 to 2012 (8912). Therefore, an average difference between former and latter periods was analyzed to study large-scale environments, which caused such difference. While TC genesis frequency showed a tendency that TCs in the 6588 period were originated from the northwest quadrant in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, TCs in the 8912 period were originated from the southeast quadrant. Thus, it was judged that TCs in the 6588 were generated at a higher latitude followed by moving to Korea, so their strength was weaker than those of TCs of 8912 due to lack of time to acquire sufficient energy from the sea. For TC passage frequency, TCs in the 6588 period showed a tendency to move a short distance from the sea far away from the southeast in Japan to the sea far away from the northeast in Japan or toward the East China Sea. On the other hand, TCs in the 8912 period moved a longer distance from the sea far away from the Philippines via Japan to the eastern sea of Kamchatka Peninsular or toward the east region in China. As such, an average difference of intensity between the former period and the latter period over the 500-hPa streamline was analyzed to determine why the intensity of TCs in the 6588 period was weaker than that of TCs in the 8912 period. As a result, anomalous cold northerlies from anomalous cyclones based on the northern territory of Japan were predominant, while these anomalous flows were originated from the tropical and subtropical western Pacific followed by moving to Korea, thereby affecting the weakening of the TC

  8. Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2007-01-01

    The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the

  9. NASA GPM Measures Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale), Dec. 9 2015

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Dec. 9, 2015, NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission measured thunderstorm tops reaching heights on Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale) above 16.6 km (10.3 miles) near the center of the...

  10. Impact of subgrid-scale processes on eyewall replacement cycle of tropical cyclones in HWRF system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Ping; Zhu, Zhenduo; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman; Black, Robert; Marks, Frank D.; Tallapragada, Vijay; Zhang, Jun A.; Zhang, Xuejin; Gao, Cen

    2015-11-01

    Two idealized simulations by the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model are presented to examine the impact of model physics on the simulated eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). While no ERC is produced in the control simulation that uses the operational HWRF physics, the sensitivity experiment with different model physics generates an ERC that possesses key features of observed ERCs in real tropical cyclones. Likely reasons for the control simulation not producing ERC include lack of outer rainband convection at the far radii from the eyewall, excessive ice hydrometeors in the eyewall, and enhanced moat shallow convection, which all tend to prevent the formation of a persistent moat between the eyewall and outer rainband. Less evaporative cooling from precipitation in the outer rainband region in the control simulation produces a more stable and dryer environment that inhibits the development of systematic convection at the far radii from the eyewall.

  11. Tropical cyclone/upper-atmospheric interaction as inferred from satellite total ozone observations

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone within and surrounding western North Atlantic and North Pacific tropical cyclones that occurred from 1979-1982. It was found from numerical model simulations and diagnostics and satellite observations that the distribution of total ozone within the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves during the tropical cyclone season corresponded well with the variation of thermodynamic parameters (i.e., temperature, thickness, geopotential heights) near the tropopause and the regions of strong stratospheric and tropospheric exchange processes. These results are similar to previous middle latitudinal observations. It was also found that the three-dimensional transport processes associated with both the western North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone's outflow jet induced secondary circulation and the strong vertical motions associated with active deep convective and eye regions helped to modify the total ozone distribution that is usually observed within these subtropical upper-tropospheric waves. The tropical cyclone induced modifications of the total ozone in the upper-tropospheric waves became greater as the tropical cyclone became more intense and the three-dimensional transpost processes associated with the outflow jet, convection and eye strengthened. The strong relationship between total ozone distribution and the variation of the tropopause topography, made it possible to use TOMS to monitor the propagation of the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between tropical cyclones and their upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric environment when these tropical cyclones and the upper-tropospheric waves interacted. These total ozone patterns during tropical cyclone and upper-tropospheric wave interaction reflected the three-dimensional upper-tropospheric transport processes that were conducive for storm intensification, weakening, or recurvature.

  12. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  13. Changes in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclones Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andronache, C.; Phillips, V.

    2009-12-01

    The variability in the activity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones at seasonal scales, and beyond, has been linked to significant changes in the ocean - atmosphere system. The dominant factors affecting the development of North Atlantic tropical cyclones are: sea surface temperature (SST), surface pressure, atmospheric instability, humidity, and vertical shear of the mean flow. Changes in such factors at climate time-scales modulate the frequency of tropical cyclones and their most destructive manifestation, namely the hurricanes. Some of these changes have been observed to be linked to large-scale perturbations, such as ENSO, and other ocean - atmosphere oscillations and teleconnections. This study reports findings on changes in SST anomalies and their possible links to tropical cyclones. Using SST data over the last six decades, we illustrate statistical connections by applying novel mathematical techniques between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and tropical cyclones. Possible interactions between AMO, climate change and the fate of tropical cyclones are discussed in the context of recent advances in climate research.

  14. Aerosols-Cloud-Microphysics Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Earl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luna-Cruz, Yaitza

    Aerosols-cloud-microphysical processes are largely unknown in their influence on tropical cyclone evolution and intensification; aerosols possess the largest uncertainty. For example: What is the link between aerosols and cloud microphysics quantities? How efficient are the aerosols (i.e. dust from the Saharan Air Layer -SAL) as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN)? Does aerosols affect the vertical velocity, precipitation rates, cloud structure and lifetime? What are the dominant factors and in which sectors of the tropical cyclone? To address some of the questions in-situ microphysics measurements from the NASA DC-8 aircraft were obtained during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) 2010 field campaign. A total of four named storms (Earl, Gaston, Karl and Mathew) were sampled. Earl presented the excellent opportunity to study aerosols-cloud-microphysics interactions because Saharan dust was present and it underwent rapid intensification. This thesis seeks to explore hurricane Earl to develop a better understanding of the relationship between the SAL aerosols and cloud microphysics evolution. To assist in the interpretation of the microphysics observations, high resolution numerical simulations of hurricane Earl were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with the new Aerosol-Aware bulk microphysics scheme. This new version of Thompson scheme includes explicit activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from a major CCN source (i.e. sulfates and sea salt) and explicit ice nucleation (IN) from mineral dust. Three simulations are performed: (1) the Control case with the old Thompson scheme and initial conditions from GFS model, (2) the Aerosol-Aware first baseline case with GOCART aerosol module as an input conditions, and (3) the Aerosol-Aware increase case in which the GOCART aerosols concentrations were increased significantly. Overall, results of model simulations along with aircraft observations

  15. Diabatic and frictional forcing effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slocum, Christopher J.

    Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting skill has slowed in improvement for both dynamical and statistical-dynamical forecasting methods in comparison to gains seen in track forecasting skill. Also, forecast skill related to rapid intensification, e.g. a 30 kt or greater increase in intensity within a 24-hour period, still remains poor. In order to make advances and gain a greater understanding, the processes that affect intensity change, especially rapid intensification, need further study. This work evaluates the roles of diabatic and frictional forcing on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones. To assess the diabatic forcing effects on intensity change in tropical cyclones, this study develops applications of Eliassen's balanced vortex model to obtain one-dimensional solutions to the geopotential tendency and two-dimensional solutions to the transverse circulation. The one-dimensional balanced solutions are found with dynamical model outputs as well as aircraft reconnaissance combined with diabatic heating derived from microwave rainfall rate retrievals. This work uses solutions from both datasets to make short-range intensity predictions. The results show that for the one-dimensional solutions, the tangential tendency does not match the dynamical model or aircraft wind tendencies. To relax the assumptions of the one-dimensional solutions to the geopotential tendency, solutions for idealized vortices are examined by finding two-dimensional solutions to the transverse circulation. The two-dimensional solutions allow for evaluation of the axisymmetric structure of the vortex on the (r, z)-plane without setting the baroclinicity to zero and the static stability to a constant value. While the sensitivity of tangential wind tendency to diabatic forcing and the region of high inertial stability is more realistic in the two-dimensional results, the solutions still neglect the influence of friction from the boundary layer. To understand further the role of

  16. The Role of Interacting Cyclones in Modifying Tropical Cyclone Landfall Threat: Fujiwhara vs. enhanced Beta drift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    The recent impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) Irene and Sandy have brought to the forefront the question of the true return period of landfalls in that region. Given the relatively short period of record of observations, those seeking robust return estimates often generate stochastic event sets. While the details of methods for generating those sets are generally not published (with an exception being Emanuel 2006), presentations have suggested that each member (TC event) of a stochastic set does not impact other TC members. Such an approach has the benefit of relative simplicity as well as rapidity of production, as each TC member can be produced without concern about simultaneous TCs in the basin. Given most real-world TCs are separated by several days or more, and distances of 2000km or more, this approach is seemingly well-founded for the majority of TC climatology. Yet, there have been many examples of TC-TC Fujiwhara interaction across the globe. While the interaction is much more common in the western Pacific, it is not unheard of in the Atlantic - with Connie and Diane in 1955 as two examples of such interaction but largely away from land. Further, the northeast U.S. coast can be threatened through such TC-TC interactions. The historic 1893 New York City Hurricane took an unusual NNW track (and landfall location) possibly as a consequence of interaction with one if not two additional nearby TCs. Numerical model (WRF) simulations of this case revealed exceptional difficulty in track prediction, illustrating further the complexity of the interaction. Interaction is not necessarily limited to another TC. Occasionally, a TC will interact with an occluded cold-core cyclone, which can then take the TC on a highly unusual track. Such interactions by their nature occur most often early or late in the TC season. Examples of TC-nonTC interaction include the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel from 1950, and most recently, Hurricane Sandy, all of which had

  17. Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Bastola, Satish

    2016-02-01

    A popular perception is that landfalling tropical cyclones help to mitigate droughts in the Southeastern United States (SeUS). However intriguing paradigms on the role of large scale SST variations on continental US including SeUS droughts and seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity confronts us. These paradigms suggest that in the presence of warm (cold) eastern tropical Pacific and cold (warm) Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) lead to the increased likelihood of wetter (drier) conditions over the continental US including the SeUS. Juxtaposing this understanding with the fact that landfalling tropical cyclones contribute significantly to the annual mean total rainfall in the SeUS and in El Niño (La Niña) years with cold (warm) tropical Atlantic SSTA lead to reduced (increased) Atlantic tropical cyclone activity raises a conflict on the role of the large-scale SST variations in SeUS hydroclimate. This study attempts to investigate the apparent dichotomous role of the large scale SST variations on the SeUS hydrology by examining the role of rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones in the SeUS to local seasonal droughts. Our study finds that the contribution of the rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclone on the mitigation of monthly drought in the 28 SeUS watersheds is relatively insignificant. So much so that the hydrological model uncertainty in estimating the drought index over the 28 SeUS watersheds is larger than the sensitivity exhibited by the drought index to the inclusion of rain from landfalling tropical cyclone. The conclusions of this study are justified by the fact that the timing of the landfalling tropical cyclone in relation to overall soil moisture conditions of the watershed does not coincide with a drought like situation in the 1948-2006 time period analyzed in this study. This largely stems from the fact that the large-scale flow pattern resulting in abundant (lack of) advection of moisture for anomalously wet (dry

  18. Effects of thermodynamic profiles on the interaction of binary tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Wook; Chun, Hye-Yeong

    2015-09-01

    The interactions between idealized binary tropical cyclones (TCs) on f and β planes with different separation distance and thermodynamic soundings obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data averaged over the western North Pacific are investigated through ensemble three-dimensional numerical simulations with a horizontal resolution of 10 km in a single domain. In the simulations on the f plane, two TCs show mutual cyclonic rotations with symmetric structures. Two TCs with thermodynamic profiles of larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) and maximum potential intensity (MPI) show greater interaction than those with a smaller CAPE and MPI due to the stronger tangential velocity near the TC center. In the simulations on the β plane, the two TCs do not merge, because the beta effect prevents the attraction of the two TCs by generating asymmetric motions of the TC with northwestward forcing. The relative strengths of the two TCs change with time and depend on the low-level inflow influenced by the Coriolis parameter. Similar to the results on the f plane, the two TCs only merge with the thermodynamic soundings of large CAPE and MPI.

  19. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Nicholas H.; Wong, Aaron; Vitolo, Renato; Stolberg, Kristin; Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Mumby, Peter J.

    2016-06-01

    Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

  20. Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

  1. Global impact of tropical cyclones on primary production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menkes, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Lévy, Marina; Ethé, Christian; Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier; Vincent, Emmanuel; Vialard, Jérôme; Jullien, Swen

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, we explore the global responses of surface temperature, chlorophyll, and primary production to tropical cyclones (TCs). Those ocean responses are first characterized from the statistical analysis of satellite data under ~1000 TCs over the 1998-2007 period. Besides the cold wake, the vast majority of TCs induce a weak chlorophyll response, with only ~10% of induced blooms exceeding 0.1 mg m-3. The largest chlorophyll responses mostly occur within coastal regions, in contrast to the strongest cold wakes that generally occur farther offshore. To understand this decoupling, we analyze a coupled dynamical-biogeochemical oceanic simulation forced by realistic wind vortices applied along observed TC tracks. The simulation displays a realistic spatial structure of TC-induced blooms and its observed decoupling with TC cold wakes. In regions of strong TC energy input, the strongest cold wakes occur in regions of shallow thermocline (<60 m) and the strongest blooms in regions of shallow nitracline and/or subsurface chlorophyll maximum (<60 m). Shallow thermoclines are found over many open ocean regions, while regions of shallow nitracline and/or subsurface chlorophyll maximum are most prominent in near-coastal areas, explaining the spatial decoupling between the cold and bloom wakes. The overall TC contribution to annual primary production is weak and amounts to ~1%, except in a few limited areas (east Eurasian coast, South tropical Indian Ocean, Northern Australian coast, and Eastern Pacific Ocean in the TC-prone region) where it can locally reach up to 20-30%. Nearly 80% of this TC-induced annual primary production is the result of the biogeochemical response to the 30% strongest TCs.

  2. Quantification of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; Wang, D.

    2015-12-01

    Rigorous statistical quantification of natural hazard covariance across regions has important implications for risk management, and is also of fundamental scientific interest. We present a multivariate Bayesian Poisson regression model for inferring the covariance in tropical cyclone (TC) counts across multiple ocean basins and across Saffir-Simpson intensity categories. Such covariability results from the influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on local environments that can alternately suppress or enhance TC genesis and intensification, and our model also simultaneously quantifies the covariance of TC counts with various climatic modes in order to deduce the source of inter-basin TC covariability. The model explicitly treats the time-dependent uncertainty in observed maximum sustained wind data, and hence the nominal intensity category of each TC. Differences in annual TC counts as measured by different agencies are also formally addressed. The probabilistic output of the model can be probed for probabilistic answers to such questions as: - Does the relationship between different categories of TCs differ statistically by basin? - Which climatic predictors have significant relationships with TC activity in each basin? - Are the relationships between counts in different basins conditionally independent given the climatic predictors, or are there other factors at play affecting inter-basin covariability? - How can a portfolio of insured property be optimized across space to minimize risk? Although we present results of our model applied to TCs, the framework is generalizable to covariance estimation between multivariate counts of natural hazards across regions and/or across peril types.

  3. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-06-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity in the environment, which deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. However, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  4. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts relative to the storm path. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity that deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm and changes the moisture transport into the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. In contrast, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  5. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  6. Dynamics of the Stratiform Sector of a Tropical Cyclone Rainband

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didlake, A. C.; Houze, R.

    2013-12-01

    Airborne Doppler radar collected observations of the stationary rainband complex of Hurricane Rita (2005) in exceptional detail. Dynamics of the stationary rainband complex play a large role in the evolution of the tropical cyclone's internal structure. The stratiform sector of the stationary rainband complex occurs on the downwind end of the complex. This stratiform rainband is a mesoscale feature consisting of nearly uniform precipitation and weak vertical velocities from collapsing convective cells. Upward transport and associated latent heating occur within the stratiform cloud layer in the form of rising radial outflow. Below the cloud layer, descending radial inflow was driven by horizontal buoyancy gradients, and thus horizontal vorticity generation, introduced by regions of sublimational and melting cooling. The organization of this transport initially is robust but fades downwind as the convection dissipates. This descending inflow advected higher angular momentum inward, which resulted in the development of a midlevel tangential jet and broadening of the tangential wind field. This circulation may have also contributed to ventilation of the eyewall as inflow of low-entropy air continued past the rainband in both the boundary layer and midlevels. Given the expanse of the stratiform rainband region, its thermodynamic and kinematic impacts likely help to modify the structure and intensity of the overall storm.

  7. The inner core thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Gabriel J.

    2016-02-01

    Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the inner-core dynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL), our knowledge of the inner-core thermodynamics of the TCBL remains limited. In this study, the inner-core budgets of potential temperature (θ ), specific humidity (q), and reversible equivalent potential temperature (θ _e ) are examined using a high-resolution multilevel boundary layer model. The potential temperature budgets show that the heat energy is dominated by latent heat release in the eyewall, evaporative cooling along the outer edge of the eyewall, and upward surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the underlying warm ocean. It is shown that the vertical θ advection overcompensates the sum of radial advective warming from the boundary layer outflow jet and latent heating for the development of cooling in the eyewall within the TCBL. The moisture budgets show the dominant upward transport of moisture in the eyewall updrafts, partly by the boundary-layer outflow jet from the bottom eye region, so that the eyewall remains nearly saturated. The θ _e budgets reveal that the TCBL is maintained thermodynamically by the upward surface flux of higher-θ _e air from the underlying warm ocean, the radial transport of low-θ _e air from the outer regions of the TCBL, and the dry adiabatic cooling associated by eyewall updrafts. These results underscore the significance of vertical motion and the location of the boundary layer outflow jet in maintaining the inner core thermal structure of the TCBL.

  8. Measuring NWP Skill of Tropical Cyclones in Shanghai Meteorological Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaofeng; Xu, Xiaolin; Chen, Baode

    2014-05-01

    A WRF based typhoon NWP system for operations, namely, the SMS-THRAPS (Shanghai Meteorological Service-Tropical cyclone High Resolution Analysis and Prediction System), has been developed in Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). It mainly consists of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, a complex cloud analysis (CCS) package and the WRF3.5. A significant number of local observations such as SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, METAR, AMDAR, CINRAD and AWS can be assimilated into the system. The model is configured with a mesh of 9 km horizontal resolution covering an area about 6000km×5000km and a moving nest of 7°×7° at 3 km grid distance. Numerical experiments for Super typhoon "MEGI" (2012) during landfall stage indicated that assimilation of local observations is very important for improving the accuracy of typhoon track, intensity forecasts, particularly, local rainfall distribution. The SMS-THRAPS performance in 2013 was evaluated and compared with ECWMF and JAPAN global numerical forecasts. The results show that SMS-THRAPS's track forecast is similar to ECWMF and better than JAPAN. SMS-THRAPS is the best in sea level pressure forecast at leading time < 42 hours, and worse than ECWMF, better than JAPAN at leading time > 42 hours. Key words: High resolution, Typhoon, Assimilation

  9. Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

  10. Gravity waves generated by a tropical cyclone during the STEP tropical field program - A case study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pfister, L.; Chan, K. R.; Bui, T. P.; Bowen, S.; Legg, M.; Gary, B.; Kelly, K.; Proffitt, M.; Starr, W.

    1993-01-01

    Overflights of a tropical cyclone during the Australian winter monsoon field experiment of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) show the presence of two mesoscale phenomena: a vertically propagating gravity wave with a horizontal wavelength of about 110 km and a feature with a horizontal scale comparable to that of the cyclone's entire cloud shield. The larger feature is fairly steady, though its physical interpretation is ambiguous. The 110-km gravity wave is transient, having maximum amplitude early in the flight and decreasing in amplitude thereafter. Its scale is comparable to that of 100-to 150-km-diameter cells of low satellite brightness temperatures within the overall cyclone cloud shield; these cells have lifetimes of 4.5 to 6 hrs. These cells correspond to regions of enhanced convection, higher cloud altitude, and upwardly displaced potential temperature surfaces. The temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological variables associated with the 110-km gravity wave can be simulated by a slowly moving transient forcing at the anvil top having an amplitude of 400-600 m, a lifetime of 4.5-6 hrs, and a size comparable to the cells of low brightness temperature.

  11. A Reassessment of the Integrated Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Surface Chlorophyll in the Western Subtropical North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-28

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  12. A reassessment of the integrated impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll in the western subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-02-01

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998-2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally averaged (June-November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  13. Elevated middle and upper troposphere ozone observed downstream of Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Robjhon, Miliaritiana L.; Reyes, Ashford; Valentine, Adriel; Neves, Luis

    2015-10-01

    During the peak period of hurricane activity in the summer of 2010, vertical profiles of ozone using ozonesondes were taken downstream of tropical cyclones in the Western and Eastern Atlantic Ocean basin at Barbados and Cape Verde. Measurements are taken for tropical cyclones Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Julia and Igor. The measurements show an increase in ozone mixing ratios with air originating from the tropical cyclones at 5-10 km altitude. We suggest that observed lightning activity associated tropical cyclones and the subsequent production of NOX followed by upper level outflow and subsidence ahead of the tropical cyclones and aged continental outflow from West Africa thunderstorms produced observed increases in ozone mixing ratios. Hurricane Danielle showed the largest changes in ozone mixing ratio with values increasing from 25 ppb to 70 ppb between 22 and 25 August in the middle troposphere, near 450 hPa; warming and drying in the middle and lower troposphere. Measurements of ozone mixing ratios in Cape Verde show higher ozone mixing ratios prior to the passage of tropical storm Julia but low ozone mixing ratios and high relative humidity up to 300 hPa when the storm was in close proximity. This is due most likely the vertically transported from the marine boundary layer.

  14. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossin, James P.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2014-05-01

    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

  15. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

    PubMed

    Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

    2014-05-15

    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions. PMID:24828193

  16. Assimilation of hyperspectral satellite radiance observations within tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Haidao

    The availability of high resolution temperature and water vapor data is critical for the study of mesoscale scale weather phenomena (e.g., convective initiations, and tropical cyclones). As hyperspectral infrared sounders, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) could provide high resolution atmospheric profiles by measuring radiations in many thousands of different channels. This work focuses on the assessment of the potential values of satellite hyperspectral radiance data on the study of convective initiations (CI) and the assimilation of AIRS radiance observations within tropical storms. First, the potential capability of hyperspectral infrared measurements (GIFTS) to provide convective precipitation forecasts has been studied and assessed. Using both the observed and the model-predicted profiles as input to the GIFTS radiative transfer model (RTM), it is shown that the simulated GIFTS radiance could capture the high vertical and temporal variability of the real and modeled atmosphere prior to a convective initiation, as well as the differences between observations and model forecasts. This study suggests the potential for hyperspectral infrared radiance data to make an important contribution to the improvement of the forecast skill of convective precipitation. Second, as the first step toward applying AIRS data to tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, a set of dropsonde profiles during Hurricane Rita (2005) is used to simulate AIRS radiance data and to assess the ability of AIRS data in capturing the vertical variability within TCs through one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) twin experiments. The AIRS observation errors and background errors are first estimated. Five sets of 1D-Var twin experiments are then performed using different combinations of AIRS channels. Finally, results from these 1D-Var experiments are analyzed. Major findings are: (1) AIRS radiance data contain useful information about

  17. Tropical Cyclone Formation in a Sheared Environment: A Case Study.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, John; Vollaro, David; Corbosiero, Kristen L.

    2004-11-01

    The development of Hurricane Danny (1997) from depression to hurricane was examined using cloud-to-ground lightning data, reconnaissance aircraft data, and satellite imagery. Vertical wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa of 5 11 m s-1 produced persistent downshear convective outbreaks that became progressively more intense and closer to the center during the development. Early in the period the storm intensified steadily in the presence of this downshear convection. During the last and most intense outbreak, a second vortex appeared to develop within the convection. Evidence is presented that the new downshear vortex became the dominant vortex and absorbed the original. Based on these events, it is hypothesized that the presence of moderate vertical wind shear accelerated the early development process.Equivalent potential temperature fields within 500 m of the surface were examined. Only well after the period of vortex interaction did the characteristic mature tropical cyclone radial profile of equivalent potential temperature appear. This came about by the virtual elimination of both low θe values in the core and high θe values outside the core that had been present at previous hours.The growth of Hurricane Danny is viewed in terms of the wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) theory. During the tropical depression and early tropical storm (“pre-WISHE”) periods, few if any of the assumptions of WISHE were met: vertical wind shear exceeded 5 m s-1, considerable azimuthal asymmetry was present, transient highly buoyant convection occurred, and low values of θe in the storm core suggested the presence of convective downdrafts. It is proposed that 1) vortex interactions and subsequent axisymmetrization produced a single dominant vortex at the surface, and 2) vertical mixing of moist entropy by strong convection moved the sounding toward moist neutrality. By this reasoning, the disturbance then met the key tenets of the known finite-amplitude WISHE instability

  18. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  19. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage.

    PubMed

    Strotz, Luke C; Mamo, Briony L; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region's tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  20. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strotz, Luke C.; Mamo, Briony L.; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-04-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region’s tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state.

  1. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Strotz, Luke C.; Mamo, Briony L.; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region’s tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  2. Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Halverson, Jeff; Simpson, Joanne; Olson, William; Pierce, Harold

    1999-01-01

    Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability Mapping Using Geospatial Techniques: Application to a Coastal Upazila in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoque, M. A. A.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.; Childs, I.

    2015-12-01

    Cyclones are one of the most catastrophic natural disasters. Globally, many coastal regions are vulnerable to different categories cyclones. In Bangladesh, disasters from tropical cyclones are annual occurrences in coastal areas. The intensity and extent of damage due to tropical cyclones are very high. An appropriate mapping approach is essential for producing detail vulnerability assessments to deliver useful information for reducing the impacts of cyclones on people, property and environment. The present study developed and tested a vulnerability mapping approach for tropical cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila a 151 km2 local government area located in coastal Bangladesh. The study applied the approach by integrating remote sensing, field data and multi-criteria evaluation at regional scales covering <1000 km2. Seven criteria concerned with cyclone impacts were considered for the study: elevation, slope, geomorphology, proximity to coastline, proximity to cyclone track, land uses and population density. Thematic raster map layers were prepared for every criterion and weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with sensitivity analysis. Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) technique was used for overlaying standardized criteria maps with their weights to produce the vulnerability map. Our results indicated that 15% of the study area had very high vulnerability; mostly close to the river and densely populated areas, with 40 % area as high vulnerability on cropped grounds. Around 25% area was classified at moderate vulnerability covering most of the forests. The low and very low vulnerable area accounts the 12% and 8% respectively. This approach provided very promising result and it was verified by field survey. The result provides the strong applicability of this approach to assess the vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh to tropical cyclones.

  4. Potential impact of the colored Amazon and Orinoco plume on tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newinger, C.; Toumi, R.

    2015-02-01

    The Amazon and the Orinoco river plumes modulate ocean stratification and color in the tropical North Atlantic. This changes air-sea interactions and may thus be important for tropical cyclones (TCs). Using a regional ocean model, we try to separate the potential impact of river freshwater and light absorption on ocean temperatures, stability, and TC intensity. While the freshwater plume stabilizes the water column, there is no significant change in sea surface temperatures. However, increased stability and temperature inversions may reduce surface cooling feedbacks. The cooling inhibition index (CI) is +2.2 (J/m2)1/3 larger when the river freshwater plume is present. Ocean color in the river plume on the other hand, blocks the deeper ocean from sunlight, leading to moderate surface warming (+0.1°C) and substantial subsurface cooling (-0.3°C 100 m mean temperature). As a consequence cold water is more readily available to passing storms and the CI decreases by -2.1 (J/m2)1/3. Using simple, idealized relationships between expected surface cooling and TC intensity, we find that river-induced stability enhances strong TCs by up to -5 to -12 hPa, while ocean color may reduce intensity by +8 hPa to +16 hPa. The net impact of the colored plume is negligible for weak storms and a slight intensity reduction for stronger cyclones. Within the Amazon and Orinoco plume, the river freshwater effect may thus be substantially reduced or even offset by light absorbing particles.

  5. Application of the Marsupial Paradigm to Tropical Cyclone Formation from Northwestward-Propagating Disturbances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Zhuo; Dunkerton, Timothy J.; Montgomery, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    A wave-tracking algorithm is developed for northwestward-propagating waves that, on occasion, play a role in tropical cyclogenesis over the western oceans. To obtain the Lagrangian flow structure, the frame of reference is translated obliquely at the same propagation speed with the precursor disturbance. Trajectory analysis suggests that streamlines in the obliquely translated frame of reference can be used to approximate flow trajectories. The algorithm was applied to Super Typhoon Nakri (2008), Tropical Cyclone Erika (2009), and a few other examples. Diagnoses of meteorological analyses and satellite-derived moisture and precipitation fields show that the marsupial framework for tropical cyclogenesis in tropical easterly waves is relevant also for northwestward-propagating disturbances as are commonly observed in the tropical western Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the western North Pacific. Finally, it is suggested that analysis of the global model data and satellite observations in the marsupial framework can provide useful guidance on early tropical cyclone advisories.

  6. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Daniel B.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Smith, James A.

    2015-12-01

    The eastern United States is vulnerable to flooding from tropical cyclone rainfall. Understanding how both the frequency and intensity of this rainfall will change in the future climate is a major challenge. One promising approach is the dynamical downscaling of relatively coarse general circulation model results using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we examine the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones and associated rainfall properties over the eastern United States using Zetac, an 18-km resolution RCM designed for modeling Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Simulations of 1980-2006 tropical cyclone frequency and rainfall intensity for the months of August-October are compared against results from previous studies and observation-based datasets. The 1980-2006 control simulations are then compared against results from three future climate scenarios: CMIP3/A1B (late twenty-first century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (early and late twenty-first century). In CMIP5 early and late twenty-first century projections, the frequency of occurrence of post-landfall tropical cyclones shows little net change over much of the eastern U.S. despite a decrease in frequency over the ocean. This reflects a greater landfalling fraction in CMIP5 projections, which is not seen in CMIP3-based projections. Average tropical cyclone rain rates over land within 500 km of the storm center increase by 8-17 % in the future climate projections relative to control. This is at least as much as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which links a warmer atmosphere to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Over land, the percent enhancement of area-averaged rain rates from a given tropical cyclone in the warmer climate is greater for larger averaging radius (300-500 km) than near the storm, particularly for the CMIP3 projections. Although this study does not focus on attribution, the findings are broadly consistent with historical tropical cyclone rainfall

  7. The Structural Changes of Tropical Cyclones Upon Interaction with Vertical Wind Shear

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, Elizabeth A.

    2003-01-01

    The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) provided a unique opportunity to observe the distributions and document the roles of important atmospheric factors that impact the development of the core asymmetries and core structural changes of tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear. The state-of-the-art instruments flown on the NASA DC-8 and ER-2, in addition to those on the NOAA aircraft, provided a unique set of observations that documented the core structure throughout the depth of the tropical cyclone. These data have been used to conduct a combined observational and modeling study using a state-of-the-art, high- resolution mesoscale model to examine the role of the environmental vertical wind shear in producing tropical cyclone core asymmetries, and the effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones.The scientific objectives of this study were to obtain in situ measurements that would allow documentation of the physical mechanisms that influence the development of the asymmetric convection and its effect on the core structure of the tropical cyclone.

  8. Parametrization of Planetary Boundary-Layer Height with Helicity and Verification with Tropical Cyclone Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Lei-Ming; Bao, Xu-Wei

    2016-04-01

    To reduce the discrepancy between simulated and observed tropical cyclones, we consider a new parametrization scheme for planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height based on helicity, intended to provide an improved description of the overall helical structures of the tropical cyclone PBL simulated in a numerical model. This scheme was preliminarily tested in the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme integrated within the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. Based on verification of track simulations for seven tropical cyclones that made landfall over China, tropical cyclone Morakot (2009) was selected for further evaluation of the new scheme. Compared with the original scheme based on the Richardson number (Ri), the new scheme elevated the PBL height associated with intense convection, which is consistent with observation. Importantly, the new scheme improved the numerical simulation of intense rainfall by modulating the PBL environment for convection evolution. Furthermore, the PBL height and 2-m temperature over land at night, which are frequently overestimated by the original YSU scheme, were improved using the new scheme. Because of its effects on PBL structures and convection evolution, the simulation of tropical cyclone Morakot intensity was improved by the new scheme.

  9. An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

  10. Effects of sea spray evaporation and dissipative heating on intensity and structure of tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xiaoping; Fei, Jianfang; Huang, Xiaogang; Zheng, Jing

    2012-07-01

    To examine effects of sea spray evaporation and dissipative heating on structure and intensity of a real tropical cyclone, the sea spray flux parameterization scheme was incorporated into the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Sensitivity tests were performed with varying the spray source function intensities and with and without dissipation heating. The numerical results indicate that sea spray evaporation increases the interfacial sensible heat flux, which is increased by 16% for the moderate spray and 47% for the heavy spray, but has little effect on the interfacial latent heat flux. The net effect of sea spray evaporation is to decrease the total sensible heat flux and to increase the total latent heat flux. The total enthalpy flux is increased by 1% and 12% with moderate and strong spray amounts, respectively. Consistent with these results, the intensity of the tropical cyclone is increased by 5% and 16% in maximum 10-m wind speed, respectively, due to sea spray evaporation. Sea spray evaporation and dissipative heating modify the tropical cyclone structure in important but complex ways. The effect of sea spray on the near-surface temperature and moisture depends on the spray amounts and its location within the tropical cyclone. Within the high-wind region of a tropical cyclone, the lower atmosphere becomes cooler and moister due to the evaporation of sea spray. However, the dissipative heating offsets the cooling due to sea spray evaporation, which makes the lower atmosphere warmer.

  11. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Emanuel, Kerry A.

    2013-01-01

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  12. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  13. Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  14. Attribution of Annual Maximum Sea Levels to Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic storm surges with major social, economic, and ecological impacts in coastal areas. Understanding the contribution of TCs to extreme sea levels is therefore essential. In this work we examine the contribution of TCs to annual maximum sea levels at the global scale, including potential climate controls and temporal changes. Complete global coverage (1842-2014) of historical 6-hour best track TC records are obtained from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data set. Hourly tide gauge data are obtained from the Joint Archive for Sea Level Research Quality Data Set. There are 177 tide gauge stations with at least 25 complete years of data between 1970 and 2014 (a complete year is defined as having more than 90% of all the hourly measurements in a year). We associate an annual maximum sea level at a given station with a TC if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a certain distance from the station within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (6h, 12h) and buffer zones (200km and 500km) around the tide gauge stations. Results highlight large regional differences, with some locations experiencing almost ¾ of their annual maxima during the passage of a TC. The attribution of annual maximum sea level to TCs is particularly high along the coastal areas of the eastern United States, the Gulf of Mexico, China, Japan, Taiwan and Western Australia. Further analyses will examine the role played by El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the potential temporal changes in TC contributions to annual maximum sea levels.

  15. Understanding the impact of saharan dust aerosols on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naeger, Aaron

    Genesis of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes is tied to convection initiated by African easterly waves (AEWs) during Northern hemisphere summer and fall seasons. The main development region is also impacted by dust aerosols transported from the Sahara. It has been hypothesized that dust aerosols can modulate the development of TCs through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interaction processes. In this study, we investigate the impact of dust aerosols on TC development using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). We first develop a technique to constrain the WRF-Chem model with a realistic three-dimensional spatial distribution of dust aerosols. The horizontal distribution of dust is specified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived aerosol products and output from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The vertical distribution of dust is constrained using the Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). We validate our technique through in situ aircraft measurements where both showed aerosol number concentrations from 20-30 cm-3 in the atmosphere for Saharan dust moving over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Then, we use the satellite data constraint technique to nudge the WRF-Chem aerosol fields throughout the simulation of TC Florence developing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during September 2006. Three different experiments are conducted where the aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interaction processes are either activated or deactivated in the model while all other model options are identical between the experiments. By comparing the model experiment results, the impact of the aerosol interaction processes on TC development can be understood. The results indicate that dust aerosols can delay or prevent the development of a TC as the minimum sea level pressure of TC Florence was 13 h

  16. Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  17. A Physically-based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, P.; Lin, N.; Smith, J. A.; Emanuel, K.; Chavas, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause extreme flooding. Predicting and understanding TC rainfall is thus important but has received relatively less attention, compared to the wind and surge. Here we present a simple, physically-based rainfall model, where the rain rate is obtained from estimated vertical velocity and specific humidity in the lower troposphere. The involved rainfall mechanisms include: 1) vertical motion at the top of the boundary layer owing to frictional effects; 2) vertical motion in the middle troposphere resulted from the time evolution of the gradient wind; 3) vertical motion forced by topographic interaction as well as 4) baroclinic effect. The model has been applied to Texas and shown to generate rainfall statistics comparable to observations (Zhu et al, 2013). Here we further evaluate this model on an event basis; case studies include Hurricane Irene (2011) and Isabel (2003). Without any calibration, hourly rainfall estimated from this model compares well with those from full numerical weather prediction model (WRF) as well as rainfall climatology models (R-CLIPPER and PHRaM). This comparison demonstrates the model's ability to capture main TC rainfall mechanisms, and it can be used as an effective tool to study the relative contribution of each rainfall mechanism. Ongoing work includes possibly improving the rainfall model by coupling it with a more accurate boundary layer model. Given its high computational efficiency, this rainfall model can be applied to large numbers of ensemble or synthetic simulations. This study fits into our long-term goal to quantify the risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs.

  18. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone

  19. The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunion, J.

    2012-12-01

    Infrared and microwave satellite imagery has steadily improved our ability to detect low to mid-level dry air at tropical latitudes and in the environments of tropical disturbances. However, understanding how this dry air affects the tropical atmosphere and tropical systems remains a difficult challenge. This presentation will discuss the impacts of intraseasonal low to mid-level dry air sources (e.g. the Saharan Air Layer and mid-latitude dry air intrusions) on the mean atmospheric state of the tropical North Atlantic and present new mean soundings for this region of the world. Discussion will also include recent research that is examining how the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle and associated diurnal pulses might provide a means for helping environmental dry air influence the storm environment. Special infrared GOES imagery reveals that the timing of these diurnal pulses in the TC environment are remarkably predictable in both time and space and suggests that these features steadily propagate away from the storm each day. As these diurnal pulses reach peripheral TC radii where low to mid-level dry air is place, substantial arc clouds (100s of km in length and lasting for several hours) have been observed forming along the leading edge of the pulse. It is hypothesized that the processes leading to the formation of arc cloud events can significantly impact an AEW or TC (particularly smaller, less developed systems). Specifically, the cool, dry air associated with the convectively-driven downdrafts that form arc clouds can help stabilize the middle to lower troposphere and may even act to stabilize the boundary layer. The arc clouds themselves may also act to disrupt the storm. As they race away from the convective core region, they create low-level outflow in the quadrant/semicircle of the AEW or TC in which they form. This outflow pattern counters the typical low-level inflow that is vital for TC formation and maintenance.

  20. Analysis of CAPE in Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Simulated by CM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Marguerite; Frisius, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The transition of a tropical storm to a full blown hurricane (Typhoon) during intensification can be a source of great debate among many well respected scientists. As a result there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of intensification. The present study aims to lessen some of the confusion by addressing the role of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in cyclogenesis. Previous work by others fail to include this due to assumptions that allow the intensification to occur under different conditions. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted using an idealised set up in the cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model CM1. A base state provided by a Dunion sounding was used with the vortex being initialised using the Rotunno and Emanuel's scheme and the Morrison double-moment cloud microphysical scheme was adopted. All experiments employed a 2km grid spacing with 600 grid points in the horizontal and 500m grid spacing with 59 grid points in the vertical. Two sets of sensitivity tests were done where the distribution of CAPE was investigated. In the first group the base state temperature was perturbed such that the atmosphere cooled and warmed at 0.5K/km and 1K/km in the vertical direction. In the second group the value for the exchange coefficient for enthalpy was increased and decreased by a factor of 2 and 4 for both cases. Since we are only interested in the rate of intensification most results were taken at the time when the rate of intensification was the highest. In the temperature perturbation experiments warming the atmosphere creates less than ideal conditions for cyclogenesis which results in no hurricane developing when the air was warmed by 1K/km and a very weak tropical cyclone developing when the air was warmed by 0.5K/km. As a result of this there is very little CAPE present in both cases. In contrast, cooling the air provides better conditions for cyclogenesis. The amount of CAPE is much greater when the air was cooled by 0.5K/km but the

  1. Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the Atlantic Meridional Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Rosati, Anthony; Yang, Xiaosong; Jia, Liwei; Zeng, Fanrong

    2016-05-01

    This study examines the year-to-year modulation of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TC) activity by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) using both observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution Version of CM2.5 (FLOR) global coupled model. 1. The positive (negative) AMM phase suppresses (enhances) WNP TC activity in observations. The anomalous occurrence of WNP TCs results mainly from changes in TC genesis in the southeastern part of the WNP. 2. The observed responses of WNP TC activity to the AMM are connected to the anomalous zonal vertical wind shear (ZVWS) caused by AMM-induced changes to the Walker circulation. During the positive AMM phase, the warming in the North Atlantic induces strong descending flow in the tropical eastern and central Pacific, which intensifies the Walker cell in the WNP. The intensified Walker cell is responsible for the suppressed (enhanced) TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the WNP by strengthening (weakening) ZVWS. 3. The observed WNPTC-AMM linkage is examined by the long-term control and idealized perturbations experiment with FLOR-FA. A suite of sensitivity experiments strongly corroborate the observed WNPTC-AMM linkage and underlying physical mechanisms.

  2. Lessons on tropical cyclone genesis from paleoclimate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korty, R.; Galewsky, J.; Camargo, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    There are many questions about how the climatology of tropical cyclones may change with climate, but the observational record is ill-equipped to address them: it is restricted by a short length, subjective storm intensity estimates, and questions about its completeness. Analysis of 21st century model simulations and theoretical developments have provided some guidance, but it will be many more years before sufficient data exist to finally confirm or refute their predictions of the future. But there is a wealth of data emerging from a variety of paleoclimate approaches, and here we present some avenues for learning from model simulations of the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Atmospheric composition remained fairly steady between the mid-Holocene (6ka) and the preindustrial era, but the latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation changed substantially as the perihelion of Earth's orbit progressed from September (6ka) to January (today). The magnitude of the differences at 6ka fades over the late Holocene. We examined the simulations of the paleoclimate intercomparison modeling project (PMIP2) to investigate how the dynamic and thermodynamic factors known to be important for tropical cyclogenesis change in response to cold climates (last glacial maximum) and solar radiation changes (6ka). We find that despite the increase in Northern Hemisphere storm season solar radiation at 6ka, there is a robust decline in the favorability of thermodynamic variables important for genesis (e.g., maximum potential intensity and measures of tropospheric entropy deficits). These changes appear principally related to the differential heating of the ocean surface and free troposphere, but the geographic distribution of changes is not uniform, and model variability is high in the central Pacific. In addition to the genesis factors, we are examining the characteristics of model storm tracks in the latest CESM paleoclimate runs. This high frequency, high resolution output also

  3. Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone

  4. Characterization of the Tropical-Cyclone-Induced Multi-Hazard Extreme Distribution of Coastal Flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diez Sierra, J.; Toimil, A.; del Jesus, M.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Medina, R.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal areas are among the most populated regions on Earth. They constitute the interface between continental land and the ocean. For this reason they are subject to complex flooding dynamics that arise from the interaction of coastal and continental dynamics. This complexity complicates the analysis of the changes induced by climate change on the distribution of extreme events. In this work, we develop a methodology to characterize the extreme distribution of flooding induced by tropical cyclones in coastal environments under different climates, considering marine dynamics (storm surge and wave run-up) and continental dynamics (precipitation and runoff).The approach followed in this work begins by selecting the tropical cyclones that affected the study area in the past; augmenting it with synthetically-generated cyclones. The maximum dissimilarity algorithm is then used on the dataset to select for dynamical downscaling the K tropical cyclones that best represent the variability on the data. Numerical simulations are carried out for these K tropical cyclones to derive the spatial fields of wind (by means of the Hydromet-Rankine Vortex model) and rainfall (using R-Clipper model) induced by the cyclone. SWAN model is used to derive the wave fields, H2D to derive the storm surge fields and a CUENCAS-like model (IH-Mole) to derive runoff fields. All the flood-inducing dynamics are the input to the RFSM-EDA model that computes flood depths for the study area.Having completed the dynamical downscaling database, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate synthetic time series of tropical cyclone occurrence. Tropical cyclone climate is related to the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) fields, which are used in turn as the main driver of a Monte Carlo simulation. Flood time series are derived from cyclone time series using the dynamical downscaling database and interpolation, for those cyclones that have not been simulated.Our hybrid approach (mixing

  5. Application of Helical Characteristics of the Velocity Field to Evaluate the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levina, G.; Glebova, E.; Naumov, A.; Trosnikov, I.

    The paper presents results of numerical analysis for helical features of velocity field to investigate the process of tropical cyclone formation, namely, the downward helicity flux through the upper boundary of the viscous atmospheric turbulent boundary layer has been calculated. The simulation was carried out by use of the regional atmospheric ETA model and NCEP reanalysis global data. Calculations were performed for two tropical cyclones - Wilma (Atlantic basin, 2005) and Man-Yi (North-West Pacific, 2007). It has been found, that the chosen helical characteristic reveals an adequate response to basic trends in variation of such important meteorological fields as pressure and wind velocity during the hurricane vortex evolution. The analysis carried out in the paper shows that the helicity flux can be used as an illustrative characteristic to describe the intensity and destructive power of tropical cyclones.

  6. Radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclone derived from dropsondes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yifang

    The scopes of this thesis research are two folds: the first one is to the construct the intensity-based composite radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclones (TC) using GPS-based dropsonde observations and the second one is to identify the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices against the dropsonde composites of TCs. The intensity-based dropsonde composites of TCs advances our understanding of the dynamic and thermal structure of TCs of different intensity along the radial direction in and above the boundary layer where lies the devastating high wind that causes property damages and storm surges. The identification of the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity helps to improve numerical predictions of TCs since most operational TC forecast models need to utilize bogus vortices, such as Mathur vortices, to initialize TC forecasts and simulations. We first screen all available GPS dropsonde data within and round 35 named TCs over the tropical Atlantic basin from 1996 to 2010 and pair them with TC parameters derived from the best-track data provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and select 1149 dropsondes that have continuous coverage in the lower troposphere. The composite radial-vertical profiles of tangential wind speed, temperature, mixing ratio and humidity are based for each TC category ranging from "Tropical Storm" (TS) to "Hurricane Category 1" (H1) through "Hurricane Category 5" (H5). The key findings of the dropsonde composites are: (i) all TCs have the maximum tangential wind within 1 km above the ground and a distance of 1-2 times of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) at the surface; (ii) all TCs have a cold ring surrounding the warm core near the boundary layer at a distance of 1-3 times of the RMW and the cold ring structure gradually diminishes at a higher elevation where the warm core structure prevails along the radial direction; (iii) the existence of such shallow cold

  7. Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita; Mugnai, Alberto; Tripoli, Gregory J.

    2007-01-01

    One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \\bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical

  8. Evidence for the significant role of sea surface temperature distributions over remote tropical oceans in tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegde, Anitha Kumari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya

    2015-10-01

    The role of remote ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in regulating tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics has been examined by performing numerical experiments with a regional scale model. Model simulations have been carried out to simulate typhoon Man-yi (July 2007), in our case study, under a range of SST conditions over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The intensity and track of the cyclone have been systematically changed in sensitivity simulations of cool and warm SSTs over that region, following its peak phase. Warm oceans can substantially reduce the intensification of western North Pacific cyclones, whereas cool oceans can enhance their strength. This is intimately associated with the enhancement/weakening of the moisture supply through the moisture conveyor belt (MCB) in the lower troposphere, from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea into the vicinity of the cyclone center. When the MCB is interrupted over the South China Sea in warm SST occurrences, the large-scale transport of moisture into the cyclone system is significantly reduced, leading to the weakening of the cyclone intensity and to the eastward shift of its track. This study shows that changes in remote tropical ocean SST can also modulate TCs and thus can help in improving the forecasting of TC intensities and tracks.

  9. Evidence for the significant role of sea surface temperature distributions over remote tropical oceans in tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegde, Anitha Kumari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya

    2016-07-01

    The role of remote ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in regulating tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics has been examined by performing numerical experiments with a regional scale model. Model simulations have been carried out to simulate typhoon Man-yi (July 2007), in our case study, under a range of SST conditions over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The intensity and track of the cyclone have been systematically changed in sensitivity simulations of cool and warm SSTs over that region, following its peak phase. Warm oceans can substantially reduce the intensification of western North Pacific cyclones, whereas cool oceans can enhance their strength. This is intimately associated with the enhancement/weakening of the moisture supply through the moisture conveyor belt (MCB) in the lower troposphere, from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea into the vicinity of the cyclone center. When the MCB is interrupted over the South China Sea in warm SST occurrences, the large-scale transport of moisture into the cyclone system is significantly reduced, leading to the weakening of the cyclone intensity and to the eastward shift of its track. This study shows that changes in remote tropical ocean SST can also modulate TCs and thus can help in improving the forecasting of TC intensities and tracks.

  10. Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network.

    PubMed

    Yang, Saini; Hu, Fuyu; Jaeger, Carlo

    2016-02-01

    Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction. PMID:26385797

  11. Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.; Tanelli, S.; Vane, D.; Vu, Q.; Goodman, H. M.; Blakeslee, R.; Conover, H.; Hall, J.; He, Y.; Regner, K.; Knapp, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS) is being jointly developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of NASA's Hurricane Science Research Program. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive tropical cyclone database of satellite and airborne observations, in-situ measurements and model simulations containing parameters that pertain to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; the air-sea interaction processes; and the large-scale environment.

  12. Gulf of Mexico Loop Current mechanical energy and vorticity response to a tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlhorn, Eric Walter

    The ocean mixed layer response to a tropical cyclone within, and immediately adjacent to, the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current is examined using a combination of ocean profiles and a numerical model. A comprehensive set of temperature, salinity, and current profiles acquired from aircraft-deployed expendable probes is utilized to analyze the three-dimensional oceanic energy and circulation evolution in response to Hurricane Lili's (2002) passage. Mixed-layer temperature analyses show that the Loop Current cooled <1° C in response to the storm, in contrast to typically observed larger decreases of 3-5° C. Correspondingly, vertical current shears, which are partly responsible for entrainment mixing, were found to be up to 50% weaker, on average, than observed in previous studies within the directly-forced region. The Loop Current, which separates the warmer, lighter Caribbean Subtropical water from the cooler, heavier Gulf Common water, was found to decrease in intensity by -0.18 +/- 0.25 m s-1 over an approximately 10-day period within the mixed layer. Contrary to previous tropical cyclone ocean response studies which have assumed approximately horizontally homogeneous ocean structure prior to storm passage, a kinetic energy loss of 5.8 +/- 6.3 kJ m-2, or approximately -1 wind stress-scaled energy unit, was observed. Using near-surface currents derived from satellite altimetry data, the Loop Current is found to vary similarly in magnitude, suggesting storm-generated energy is rapidly removed by the pre-exiting Loop Current. Further examination of the energy response using an idealized numerical model reveals that due to: (1) favorable coupling between the wind stress and pre-existing current vectors; and (2) wind-driven currents flowing across the large horizontal pressure gradient; wind energy transfer to mixed-layer kinetic energy can be more efficient in these regimes as compared to the case of an initially horizontally homogeneous ocean. However, nearly all of this

  13. Disaster, Deprivation and Death: Large but delayed infant mortality in the wake of Filipino tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are some of the most disastrous and damaging of climate events, and estimates of their destructive potential abound in the natural and social sciences. Nonetheless, there have been few systematic estimates of cyclones' impact on children's health. This is concerning because cyclones leave in their wake a swath of asset losses and economic deprivation, both known to be strong drivers of poor health outcomes among children. In this paper we provide a household-level estimate of the effect of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in the Philippines, a country with one of the most active cyclone climatologies in the world. We reconstruct historical cyclones with detailed spatial and temporal resolution, allowing us to estimate the multi-year effects of cyclones on individuals living in specific locations. We combine the cyclone reconstruction with woman-level fertility and mortality data from four waves of the Filipino Demographic and Health Survey, providing birth histories for over 55,000 women. In multiple regressions that control for year and region fixed effects as well as intra-annual climate variation, we find that there is a pronounced and robust increase in female infant mortality among poor families in the 12-24 months after storms hit. The estimated mortality rate among this demographic subgroup is much larger than official mortality rates reported by the Filipino government immediately after storms, implying that much of a cyclone's human cost arrives well after the storm has passed. We find that high infant mortality rates are associated with declines in poor families' income and expenditures, including consumption of food and medical services, suggesting that the mechanism by which these deaths are effected may be economic deprivation. These results indicate that a major health and welfare impact of storms has been thus far overlooked, but may be easily prevented through appropriately targeted income support policies.

  14. Thermal stress and tropical cyclones affect economic production in Central America and Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    Surface temperatures and tropical cyclones have large impacts on economic production. Local cyclone energy dissipation reduces output in agriculture and tourism, while stimulating output in construction. High surface temperatures reduce output in several labor-intensive industries; a 1° C increase for two consecutive years results in production losses of ˜13%. The response is greatest during the hottest season and is non-linear, with high temperature days contributing the most to production losses. The structure of this response matches results from a large ergonomics literature, supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress reduces human performance, driving macroeconomic fluctuations. This large response of non-agricultural sectors suggests that current estimates underestimate the scale and scope of economic vulnerabilities to climate change. Responses of each industry to surface temperature, tropical cyclones and rainfall. Estimates represent the change of value-added in the industry in response to each atmospheric variables during the year of production (L=0) and the years prior (L≥1). The responses to surface temperature are triangles, tropical cyclones are squares and rainfall are crosses. Estimates are grey if none of the annual responses are significant at the α = 0.1 level. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals. Tourism receipts displays the five years prior (L=1-5) because of the long response of that industry to cyclones. Agriculture per worker is also plotted as circles when estimated a second time excluding mainland countries from the sample. Units are: temperature- percent change in output per 0.33°C; cyclones- percent changes in output per 1 standard deviation of tropical cyclone energy; rainfall- percent change in output per 2 cm/month.

  15. Coastal boundary layer transition within tropical cyclones at landfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, James Robert

    Hurricanes pose a great risk to life and property with their high winds, excessive rainfall, wave action, and storm surge. Predicting changes within hurricanes at and near the time of landfall requires an understanding of the dynamics that drive the boundary layer flow. Forecasters predict the timing, duration, and effects of the intense winds associated with a hurricane when it comes ashore, while emergency management officials call for public evacuations based upon these forecasts. One region where understanding the magnitude and structure of the wind is critical is within the surface layer just downstream of the coastline in the onshore flow. Within this region the flow begins to adjust to changes in surface triggered by its passage from the shallow coastal waters to the less homogeneous and rougher land. This adjustment may include a slowing of the mean wind with an increase in turbulence, both resulting from the increased friction of the man-made and natural terrain. Hurricane observing programs consisting of portable and mobile equipment and regional coastal mesoscale observing networks are leading to a better understanding of the processes involved with these flow modifications. The Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE) continues to play a leading role in the observation and analysis of the boundary layer of tropical cyclones at landfall. In order to gain further insight into the characteristics of this coastal transition zone, experiments were planned utilizing portable in-situ and remote measuring devices to be placed within the onshore flow at landfall. Experiment plan designs along with results from these experiments are discussed, including the analysis of a dataset collected by multiple institutions during the landfall of Hurricane Lili (2002) along the south-central Louisiana coast. Investigation reveals the existence of frictionally-induced changes in the boundary layer downwind of the coastline within

  16. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  17. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marks, F.D.; Shay, L.K.; Barnes, G.; Black, P.; Demaria, M.; McCaul, B.; Mounari, J.; Montgomery, M.; Powell, M.; Smith, J.D.; Tuleya, B.; Tripoli, G.; Xie, Lingtian; Zehr, R.

    1998-01-01

    The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long- term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these

  18. Tropical cyclones and the flood hydrology of Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, J.A.; Sturdevant-Rees, P.; Baeck, M.L.; Larsen, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Some of the largest unit discharge flood peaks in the stream gaging records of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have occurred in Puerto Rico. Many of these flood peaks are associated with tropical cyclones. Hurricane Georges, which passed directly over the island on 21-22 September 1998, produced record flood peaks at numerous USGS stations in Puerto Rico. The hydrology and hydrometeorology of extreme flood response in Puerto Rico are examined through analyses of rainfall, based on Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar reflectivity observations and USGS rain gage observations and discharge from USGS stream gaging stations. Peak rainfall accumulations of more than 700 mm occurred in the central mountain region of the island. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were located in the eastern portion of the island in areas with smaller storm total rainfall accumulations but markedly larger rainfall rates at 5-60 min timescale. Orographic precipitation mechanisms played an important role in rainfall distribution over the island of Puerto Rico. Amplification of rainfall accumulations was associated with areas of upslope motion. Elevated low-level cloud water content in regions of upslope motion played an important role in the maximum rainfall accumulations in the central mountain region of Puerto Rico. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were produced by a decaying eye wall mesovortex, which resulted in a 30-45 min period of extreme rainfall rates over the eastern portion of the island. This storm element was responsible for the record flood peak of the Rio Grande de Lo??iza. The role of terrain in development and evolution of the eye wall mesovortex is unclear but is of fundamental importance for assessing extreme flood response from the storm. Hydrologic response is examined through analyses of rainfall and discharge from five pairs of drainage basins, extending from east to west over the island. These analyses point to the

  19. Condensed Water in Tropical Cyclone "Oliver", 8 February 1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Allen, D. A.; Black, C.; Faisant, S.; Ferry, G. V.; Howard, S. D.; Livingston, J. M.; Redemann, J.; Sorenson, C. E.; Verma, S.

    1995-01-01

    On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1-11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone "Oliver" over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at -5 C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 x 10(exp 3)/cu m, the geometric mean diameter D(sub g) = 0.5-0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7-1.9 g m(exp-3). The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 x 10(exp 3) m(exp -3)) but a higher condensed water content(5.4 g/cu m estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 x 10(exp 4)/cu m, smallest size (D(sub g) = 0.3-0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 x 10 (exp 2) sq cm/cu m at 0.4- 1.0 g/cu m of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (- 40 C) at 35,000 feet ( 10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2/km) and backscatter (0.8/sr/km) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.

  20. Factors Affecting the Intensity and Trajectory of Tropical Cyclone Yasi (February 2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, C.; Lynch, A. H.; Arbetter, T. E.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yasi was a rapidly intensifying, category 5 storm that made landfall in Queensland, Australia on February 3rd, 2011. An ensemble of physics sensitivity simulations of TC Yasi using WRF v3.4.1 on a 12-km nested domain demonstrates that the choice of cumulus scheme dominates the outcome of the simulated intensity, trajectory and timing of the cyclone. The choice of microphysics parameterization, planetary boundary layer, surface drag coefficient, and ocean mixed layer scheme had smaller effects. The Modified Tiedtke scheme preferentially activates shallow convection, producing an accurate planetary boundary layer and profile of dry and moist air. However, deep convection and storm intensity are hindered. Thus the scheme produces the most accurate trajectory and landfall location but underestimates intensity and depth of the storm. Conversely, the Kain-Fritsch scheme initiates more deep convection and suppresses shallow convection, allowing storm deepening and intensification. However, subsidence from this convection scheme results in dry air entrainment aloft and a more shallow and moist boundary layer than observed. This scheme more accurately simulates depth and intensity but the trajectory and landfall location are too far south. In all ensemble runs, the simulated event reached maximum intensity over the open ocean and dissipated towards landfall, contrary to Yasi's observed lifecycle. In order to represent potential warming of the East Australian Current (EAC) not resolved in the previous experiments, idealized simulations were performed where a 1°x1° resolution auxiliary sea surface temperature dataset was assimilated into the surface (lower boundary) forcing and 1°K was added to the coastal lagoon. This warming improves the simulated evolution and maintenance of intensity towards landfall and implies that additional warming can fuel further intensification. As the speed, volume transport and temperature of the EAC are predicted to

  1. Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate

    SciTech Connect

    Broccoli, A.J.; Manabe, S.

    1990-10-01

    The utility of current generation climate models for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on the tropical storm climatology is examined. A method developed to identify tropical cyclones is applied to a series of model integrations. The global distribution of tropical storms is simulated by these models in a generally realistic manner. While the model resolution is insufficient to reproduce the fine structure of tropical cyclones, the simulated storms become more realistic as resolution is increased. To obtain a preliminary estimate of the response of the tropical cyclone climatology, CO{sub 2} was doubled using models with varying cloud treatments and different horizontal resolutions. In the experiment with prescribed cloudiness, the number of storm-days, a combined measure of the number and duration of tropical storms, undergoes a statistically significant reduction of the number of storm-days is indicated in the experiment with cloud feedback. In both cases the response is independent of horizontal resolution. While the inconclusive nature of these experimental results highlights the uncertainties that remain in examining the details of greenhouse-gas induced climate change, the ability of the models to qualitatively simulate the tropical storm climatology suggests that they are appropriate tools for this problem.

  2. Impact of cyclone Nilam on tropical lower atmospheric dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinay Kumar, P.; Dutta, Gopa; Ratnam, M. V.; Krishna, E.; Bapiraju, B.; Rao, B. Venkateswara; Mohammad, Salauddin

    2016-08-01

    A deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on 28 October 2012, and developed into a cyclonic storm. After landfall near the south coast of Chennai, cyclone Nilam moved north-northwestwards. Coordinated experiments were conducted from the Indian stations of Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Hyderabad (17.4°N, 78.5°E) to study the modification of gravity-wave activity and turbulence by cyclone Nilam, using GPS radiosonde and mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere radar data. The horizontal velocities underwent large changes during the closest approach of the storm to the experimental sites. Hodograph analysis revealed that inertia gravity waves (IGWs) associated with the cyclone changed their directions from northeast (control time) to northwest following the path of the cyclone. The momentum flux of IGWs and short-period gravity waves (1-8 h) enhanced prior to, and during, the passage of the storm (±0.05 m2 s-2 and ±0.3 m2 s-2, respectively), compared to the flux after its passage. The corresponding body forces underwent similar changes, with values ranging between ±2-4 m s-1 d-1 and ±12-15 m s-1 d-1. The turbulence refractivity structure constant ( C n 2 ) showed large values below 10 km before the passage of the cyclone when humidity in the region was very high. Turbulence and humidity reduced during the passage of the storm when a turbulent layer at ~17 km became more intense. Turbulence in the lower troposphere and near the tropopause became weak after the passage of the cyclone.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Formation in 30-day Simulation Using Cloud-System-Resolving Global Nonhydrostatic Model (NICAM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yanase, W.; Satoh, M.; Iga, S.; Tomita, H.

    2007-12-01

    We are developing an icosahedral-grid non-hydrostatic AGCM, which can explicitly represent cumulus or meso-scale convection over the entire globe. We named the model NICAM (Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model). On 2005, we have performed a simulations with horizontal grid intervals of 14, 7 and 3.5 km using realistic topography and sea surface temperature in April 2004 (Miura et al., 2007; GRL). It simulated a typhoon Sudal that actually developed over the Northwestern Pacific in 2004. In the present study, the NICAM model with the horizontal grid interval of 14 km was used for perpetual July experiment with 30 forecasting days. In this simulation, several tropical cyclones formed over the wesetern and eastern North Pacific, althought the formation over the western North Pacific occured a little further north to the actually observed region. The mature tropical cyclones with intense wind speed had a structure of a cloud-free eye and eye wall. We have found that the enviromental parameters associated with the tropical cyclone genesis explain well the simulated region of tropical cyclone generation. Over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, westward-moving disturbances like African wave are simulated, which seems to be related to the cyclone formation over the eastern North Pacific. On the other hand, the simulated tropical cyclones over the western North Pacifis seem to form by different factors as has been suggested by the previous studies based on observation. Although the model still has some problems and is under continuous improvement, we can discuss what dynamics is to be represented using a global high-resolution model.

  4. Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has

  5. Drivers of δ2H variations in an idealized extratropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dütsch, Marina; Pfahl, Stephan; Wernli, Heini

    2016-05-01

    Numerical model simulations of stable water isotopes help to improve our understanding of the complex processes driving isotopic variability in atmospheric moisture. We use the isotope-enabled Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (COSMO) model to study the governing mechanisms of δ2H variations in an idealized extratropical cyclone. A set of experiments with differing initial conditions of δ2H in vapor and partly deactivated isotopic fractionation allows us to quantify the relative roles of cloud fractionation and vertical and horizontal advection for the simulated δ2H signals associated with the cyclone and fronts. Horizontal transport determines the large-scale pattern of δ2H in both vapor and precipitation, while fractionation and vertical transport are more important on a smaller scale, near the fronts. During the passage of the cold front fractionation leads to a V-shaped trend of δ2H in precipitation and vapor, which is, for vapor, superimposed on a gradual decrease caused by the arrival of colder air masses.

  6. Interactions between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems in the Northeastern Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lugo, A.; Abarca, S. F.; Raga, G. B.; Vargas, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Major challenges in tropical meteorology include the short-term forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which is defined as the maximum tangential wind. Several efforts have been made in order to reach this goal over the last decade: Among these efforts, the study of lightning in the TC inner core (the region inside a disc of 100 km radius from the center) as a proxy to deep convection, has the potential to be used as a predictor to forecast intensity (DeMaria et al, 2012, Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1828-1842).While most studies focus their objectives in studying the lightning flash density in the inner core, we study the probability of flash occurrence for intensifying and weakening cyclones. We have analyzed the trajectories of the observed 62 tropical cyclones that developed in the basin from 2006 to 2009, and classified them into separate clusters according to their trajectories. These clusters can broadly be described as having trajectories mostly oriented: East-West, towards the central Pacific, NW far from the Mexican coast, parallel to the Mexican coast and recurving towards the Mexican coast.We estimate that probability of inner core lightning occurrence increases as cyclones intensify but the probability rapidly decrease as the systems weaken. This is valid for cyclones in most of the clusters. However, the cyclones that exhibit trajectories that recurve towards the Mexican coast, do not present the same relationship between intensity and inner-core lightning probability, these cyclones show little or no decrease in the lightning occurrence probability as they weaken.We hypothesize that one of the reasons for this anomalous behavior is likely the fact that these cyclones interact with mid-latitude systems. Mid-latitude systems are important in determining the recurving trajectory but they may also influence the TC by advecting mid-level moisture towards the TC inner core. This additional supply of moisture as the system is approaching land may enhance deep

  7. An atlas of 1976 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Chan, B.; Givens, C.; Taylor, R.

    1979-01-01

    The means for locating and extracting GEOS-3 altimeter data acquired for the analysis of specific hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones are presented. These data are also expected to be extremely useful in the analysis of the behavior of the altimeter instrument in the presence of severe meteorological disturbances as well as provide a data base which can be useful in the resolution of apparently anomalous geoid or sea surface characteristics. Geographic locations of 1976 tropical cyclones were correlated with the closest approaching orbits of the GEOS-3 satellite and its radar altimeter. The cyclone locations and altimeter data were correlated for the 1976 season. The area of coverage includes the northern hemisphere. This document is a sequel to NASA TM-X-69364 which covered the majority of the 1975 season.

  8. Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Islam, T.; Peterson, R. E.

    The aim of this study is to understand the characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones along the coast of Bangladesh by estimating the maximum wind speed and the maximum surge height in different locations during cyclone landfall. Using the Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1000 simulated storms are generated for each site based on the historical inputs. The modified Holland wind field model is used to obtain the horizontal winds. A simple bathystrophic storm surge model is used in the simulation that gives maximum surge height for the locations to be struck by a simulated storm. Finally, the return periods of maximum wind speeds at different locations are calculated which provide the design wind speed for structures in coastal areas. The wind, surge and return period information can be utilized in different mitigation measures against tropical cyclones in Bangladesh such as devising a standard building code for the coastal areas and to improve the basic wind speed map of Bangladesh.

  9. Analysis of tropical-like cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea through a combined modeling and satellite approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miglietta, M. M.; Laviola, S.; Malvaldi, A.; Conte, D.; Levizzani, V.; Price, C.

    2013-05-01

    Several Mediterranean vortices with characteristics similar to tropical cyclones are analyzed by means of numerical simulations, satellite products and lightning data. Numerical analysis suggests that the broad tropical-like cyclone category includes in reality a set of different cyclones, ranging from very small and weak vortices to larger and stronger cyclones. One case displays a much longer persistence of tropical features than the other events. The analysis of the tracks identifies two preferred areas of occurrence: the Ionian sea and the Balearic Islands. The satellite analysis of cloud top height and retrieved rainfall indicates that the stage characterized by the most intense convective activity and rainfall anticipates the mature phase, when the cyclone is more intense and characterized by tropical features, during which convection is shallower and rainfall weaker. This result is confirmed by a preliminary analysis of the lightning activity.

  10. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Soloviev, Alexander V; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A; Haus, Brian K; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms(-1). Around 60 ms(-1), the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone. PMID:24930493

  11. Tropical cyclone images now can be viewed “live” on the Web

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Thomas E.; Hawkins, Jeffrey D.; Turk, F. J.; Richardson, Kim; Sampson, Charles; Kent, John

    Passive microwave images of tropical cyclones worldwide can now be viewed on the Web in near real time. Instant access can be obtained to any “live” tropical cyclone. The images show rainband and eye structure beneath higher cloud decks and can be used to infer intensity and storm position.The images are available on the Web site of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) Marine Meteorology Division (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/projects/sat_products.html, select “tropical cyclones”). Because of the composite nature of the images, users can view unfamiliar Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) images juxtaposed with much more familiar visible and IR images (see Figure 1). This juxtaposition allows a number of interpretations of storm structure that would not be possible using information from a single sensor alone. The ability to detect storm eyes from microwave images, and therefore fix storm position, is significant since cyclone eyes are often obscured by cirrus canopies on visible and IR images. Besides microwave, visible and IR images of tropical cyclones, the Web site also has charts giving official U.S. forecasts of the storm tracks and intensities (example in Figure 2).

  12. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, Alexander V.; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A.; Haus, Brian K.; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-06-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms-1. Around 60 ms-1, the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone.

  13. An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

  14. An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripoli, G. J.

    1992-01-01

    A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-beta scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-gamma scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).

  15. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Soloviev, Alexander V.; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A.; Haus, Brian K.; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms−1. Around 60 ms−1, the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone. PMID:24930493

  16. Impacts of Air-Sea Interaction on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2004-01-01

    The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.

  17. Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Haig, Jordahna; Nott, Jonathan; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2014-01-30

    The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected. PMID:24476890

  18. Past, Present, and Future Threat of Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Flooding in New York City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.; Horton, B.; Kemp, A.; Alley, R. B.; Kopp, R. E.; Pollard, D.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges associated with tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. We seek to analyze the risk of future coastal inundation for New York City in the context of a long-term historical analysis of storm surge events and sea level rise. In order to overcome the limitation of a short and incomplete observational record of tropical cyclones in the north Atlantic, we use proxy sea-level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the north Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. Combining results from a storm surge model with relative sea-level data, we find that mean flood heights for the region have increased by ~1.24 m from ~AD 850 to the present, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. In addition, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surge events for the New York City region. These results indicate that storm surge risk for the New York City region has increased considerably over the past millennium; as sea-levels continue to rise and storms possibly become more active, the risk of coastal inundation for the region is also likely to increase significantly in coming centuries. Thus, we combine future sea level rise projections with modeled storm surge heights for synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models. Results from this work will allow us to investigate the potential for future coastal inundation in the New York City region in the context of our historical analysis.

  19. Dynamic impact of the vertical shear of gradient wind on the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ninghao; Xu, Xin; Song, Lili; Bai, Lina; Ming, Jie; Wang, Yuan

    2014-02-01

    This work studies the impact of the vertical shear of gradient wind (VSGW) in the free atmosphere on the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL). A new TCBL model is established, which relies on fiveforce balance including the pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, centrifugal force, turbulent friction, and inertial deviation force. This model is then employed to idealize tropical cyclones (TCs) produced by DeMaria's model, under different VSGW conditions (non-VSGW, positive VSGW, negative VSGW, and VSGW increase/decrease along the radial direction). The results show that the free-atmosphere VSGW is particularly important to the intensity of TC. For negative VSGW, the total horizontal velocity in the TCBL is somewhat suppressed. However, with the maximum radial inflow displaced upward and outward, the radial velocity notably intensifies. Consequently, the convergence is enhanced throughout the TCBL, giving rise to a stronger vertical pumping at the TCBL top. In contrast, for positive VSGW, the radial inflow is significantly suppressed, even with divergent outflow in the middle-upper TCBL. For varying VSGW along the radial direction, the results indicate that the sign and value of VSGW is more important than its radial distribution, and the negative VSGW induces stronger convergence and Ekman pumping in the TCBL, which favors the formation and intensification of TC.

  20. Relationships Between Basin-Wide and Landfalling Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Comparing Long-Term Simulations with Paleoevidence (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M. E.; Kozar, M. E.; Emanuel, K.

    2013-12-01

    Substantial uncertainties exist regarding the long-term relationships between various measures of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, e.g. annual total named storm counts vs. major landfalling U.S. hurricanes. Evaluating relationships from historical observations is perilous, as the records are short, spanning little more than a century, and observational biases potentially become quite substantial in earlier decades. Comparisons are further hampered by the fact that these biases may have differential impacts on different quantities. Here, we instead examine the relationships between various measures of Atlantic TC activity using the idealized framework provided by a climate model simulation subject to estimated natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past millennium (AD 850-1999). Following the downscaling approach of Emanuel et al, we use the large-scale fields of the climate model simulation to force a model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracking, and intensification. This process yields synthetic long-term basin-wide seasonal TC histories with realistic statistical attributes. Using the simulated TC histories, we examine relationships between basin-wide TC activity, landfalling TCs, hurricanes, landfalling hurricanes, and major U.S. landfalling hurricanes on timescales ranging from the interannual through centennial. We also use these synthetic TC histories to assess the limitations of inferences that can be drawn from networks of geological records of past landfalling hurricanes.

  1. Evaluating the impacts of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones on North America utilizing remotely-sensed and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Kimberly M.

    The eastern North Pacific Ocean has the highest density of tropical cyclone genesis events of any tropical basin in the world, and many of these systems form near land before moving westward. However, despite the level of tropical cyclone activity in this basin, and the proximity of the main genesis region to land, tropical cyclone behavior in the eastern North Pacific has been relatively unexplored. When synoptic conditions are favorable, moisture from northward-moving tropical cyclones can be advected into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States, often leading to the development of summertime thunderstorms during the North American monsoon season. An interaction with a mid-latitude trough produces the most rainfall, and the spatial variability of precipitation is greatly affected by the complex topography of the region. Moisture can be advected from a tropical cyclone around the subtropical ridge in place for much of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season and contribute to precipitation. This ridge, when it extends westward over the Pacific Ocean, can also prevent tropical cyclone moisture from impacting the southwestern United States. Northward-moving tropical cyclones often enter an environment with decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear, and meridional air temperature and moisture gradients. These key ingredients for extratropical transition are generally present in the eastern North Pacific, but the subtropical ridge prevents many named systems from moving northward, and only 9% of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1970 to 2011 complete ET according to cyclone phase space. However, over half of the systems that do not complete ET dissipate as cold core cyclones, a structural change that has yet to be explored in other tropical basins. It is difficult to estimate tropical cyclone intensity in a vast ocean area with few direct measurements available. The deviation angle variance technique, an objective

  2. Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Robbie E.; Radley, C.D.; LaFontaine, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.

  3. On the interaction of Tropical Cyclone Flossie and emissions from Hawaii's Kilauea volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantyus, Andre; Businger, Steven

    2014-06-01

    On 29 July 2013, Tropical Storm Flossie passed the Hawaiian Islands. This is the first interaction between an active, vigorously degassing volcano and a tropical cyclone captured by a vog (volcanic smog) dispersion model run over the Hawaiian Islands since operational simulations began in 2010, providing a unique opportunity to analyze the influence of robust volcanic emissions entrained into a tropical cyclone. Results from the vog dispersion model are compared with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite observations, lightning data from Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), and the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Dual-Polarmetric Doppler radar to investigate the effect of volcanic emissions on the storm. Observations and model results suggest that aerosol loading resulted in deep convection and glaciation which in turn enhanced charge separation and promoted active lightning.

  4. Stable Isotope Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014

    PubMed Central

    Munksgaard, Niels C.; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I.

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

  5. Stable isotope anatomy of tropical cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014.

    PubMed

    Munksgaard, Niels C; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

  6. Biological response due to tropical cyclone PHYN in the Arabian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao Neerukattu, Srinivasa; Rao, B. Venkateswara

    During the fall intermonsoon cyclone PHYN (09-11 Nov 2009) occurred in the Northeast Ara-bian Sea, we observed 4.4 C mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) drop in Aqua-MODIS derived SST data; where the maximum wind speeds recorded were of the order of 50 Knots. High wind speeds deepened the vertical mixing of 90 m, and brought the cold (23.9C), nutrient rich waters to the surface; this is confirmed with Argo's temperature profile data. Post cyclone chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) enhancement was observed through 8 day mean average chlorophyll-a derived from Aqua-MODIS data, concentration from 4.56 mg/m3 to 16 mg/m3. SST drop and Chl-a Enhancement are not continuum all along the cyclone path; Maximum SST drop and Chl-a enhancement are observed at the establishment of `cyclone eye'. The formation of an eye is almost always an indicator of increasing tropical cyclone organization and strength. Where the cyclone stalls, its movement has fallen below 2.24m/s, movement is erratic over a small area; the wave action caused by the strong surface winds churns the ocean surface and produces upwelling. This has the effect of cooling the temperature of the sea surface over an area 200 to 300 miles across. Strong asymmetry in the SST response occurs in the wake of the storm. These results in a cool swath of SST centered 50-400 km on the right hand side of the storm track. SST drop 3o C larger than on left hand side of the track. Tropical cyclones when passing over land may have destroying human lives, but over the ocean they can strongly enhance biological life i.e. enhancing phytoplankton (Chl-a) biomass.

  7. Cloud Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by TRMM PR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, C.; Wang, Z.; Nesbitt, S. W.; Dunkerton, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    To understand the cloud evolution during tropical cyclone formation, cloud features for more than 100 named tropical cyclones over the Atlantic are examined from the tropical wave to the tropical cyclone stage using the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). We focus on a time window from 3 days before genesis to 1 day after genesis, where the diagnoses for the pre-genesis evolution are carried out in the framework of the marsupial paradigm and the post-genesis analysis using the NHC best-tracks. The 20 dBZ echo-top height is used in combination with the near surface rain rate to identify the different types of convection: i) shallow convection; ii) mid-level convection and iii) deep convection. The frequency of occurrence for each precipitation type is calculated, and the relative contributions of different types of precipitation to the total rain rate are examined with respect to the center. Precipitation was found to increase in coverage and intensity near the wave-pouch center approaching genesis. Stratiform precipitation is prevalent from day -3 to day +1, but convective precipitation persistently increases near the inner-core. Mid-level convection occurs more frequently than deep convection from day -3 to day +1 and makes a larger contribution to the total precipitation than deep convection. It is also shown that stratiform precipitation, mid-level convection and deep convection all contribute to the substantial increase in rain-rate.

  8. Satellite Movie Shows Three Tropical Cyclones in Eastern Pacific

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation of NOAA's GOES-Wast satellite imagery from August 2 through 4 shows the movement of Tropical Depression Genevieve (left) southwest of Hawaii, Hurricane Iselle (center) in the Eastern...

  9. A 3-D Look at Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine

    NASA Video Gallery

    This 3-D flyby animation of GPM imagery shows Post-Tropical Storm Hermine on Sept. 6. Rain was falling at a rate of over 1.1 inches (27 mm) per hour between the Atlantic coast and Hermine's center ...

  10. Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mach, Doug M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

  11. An atlas of 1977 and 1978 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Taylor, R. L.

    1980-01-01

    All of the GEOS 3 satellite altimeter schedule information were collected with all of the available 1977 and 1978 tropical cyclone positional information. The time period covers from March 23, 1977 through Nov. 23, 1978. The geographical region includes all ocean area north of the equator divided into the following operational areas: the Atlantic area (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico); the eastern Pacific area; the central and western Pacific area; and the Indian Ocean area. All available source material concerning tropical cyclones was collected. The date/time/location information was extracted for each disturbance. This information was compared with the GEOS 3 altimeter ON/OFF history information to determine the existence of any altimeter data close enough in both time and location to make the data potentially useful for further study (the very liberal criteria used was time less than 24 hours and location within 25 degrees). Geographic plots (cyclone versus GEOS 3 orbit track) were produced for all of the events found showing the approximate location of the cyclone and the GEOS 3 orbit traces for the full day.

  12. The inference of tropical cyclone dynamics using GOES VISSR/VAS data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Stout, J.

    1983-01-01

    The sequence of events observed during tropical cyclone Emily, was suggested as a possible mechanism for cyclogenesis. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East VISSR/VAS sensors were used. The VISSR visible imagery obtained every 15 minutes was used to define the low tropospheric cyclonic vortex and upper tropospheric horizontal convergence. The VAS water vapor (channels 9 and 10) and carbon dioxide (channels 3 and 4) channels were used to infer upper and middle tropospheric subsidence by monitoring the Adiabatic compressional drying and warming, respectively, occurring within this layer. Evidence of an existing lower tropospheric cyclonic vortex was seen. The satellite derived wind vectors (length of vector is proportional to wind velocity, where the strongest winds were approximately 35 knots) are superimposed on the GOES visible image of tropical storm Emily. Vectors and low level clouds depict the center of the cyclonic vortex immediately south of the large convective cell in the center of the image. Upper tropospheric cloud tracers and rawinsonde reports along the Eastern United States suggest that the southwesterly environmental upper atmospheric flow is converging with the outflow from the convective cell north of the vortex.

  13. Fujiwhara interaction of tropical cyclone scale vortices using a weighted residual collocation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, Raymond P.; Alam, Jahrul M.

    2016-09-01

    The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although there have been numerous investigations through measurments with aircrafts/satellites, as well as with numerical simulations. This article presents a computational model for simulating the interaction between cyclones. The proposed numerical method is presented briefly, where the time integration is performed by projecting the discrete system onto a Krylov subspace. The method filters the large scale fluid dynamics using a multiresolution approximation, and the unresolved dynamics is modeled with a Smagorinsky type subgrid scale parameterization scheme. Numerical experiments with Fujiwhara interactions are considered to verify modeling accuracy. An excellent agreement between the present simulation and a reference simulation at Re = 5000 has been demonstrated. At Re = 37440, the kinetic energy of cyclones is seen consolidated into larger scales with concurrent enstrophy cascade, suggesting a steady increase of energy containing scales, a phenomena that is typical in two-dimensional turbulence theory. The primary results of this article suggest a novel avenue for addressing some of the computational challenges of mesoscale atmospheric circulations.

  14. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of

  15. The role of the equivalent blackbody temperature in the study of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steranka, J.; Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones are used to investigate their role in describing the convection and cloud patterns of the storms and in predicting wind intensity. The high temporal resolution of the equivalent blackbody temperature measurements afforded with the geosynchronous satellite provided sequential quantitative measurements of the tropical cyclone which reveal a diurnal pattern of convection at the inner core during the early developmental stage; a diurnal pattern of cloudiness in the storm's outer circulation throughout the life cycle; a semidiurnal pattern of cloudiness in the environmental atmosphere surrounding the storms during the weak storm stage; an outward modulating atmospheric wave originating at the inner core; and long term convective bursts at the inner core prior to wind intensification.

  16. Stratospheric and mesospheric concentric gravity waves over tropical cyclone Mahasen: Joint AIRS and VIIRS satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, Jia; Miller, Steven D.; Hoffmann, Lars; Straka, William C.

    2014-11-01

    We report on the first simultaneous spaceborne observations of concentric gravity wave patterns in the stratosphere and mesosphere over the Indian Ocean excited by Tropical Cyclone Mahasen. On the nights of 13-14 May 2013, concentric ring patterns in nightglow were observed in close-proximity to Mahasen by the Day/Night Band (DNB) of the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite. The waves exhibited horizontal wavelengths of 40-60 km. On 13 May 2013, long concentric waves of ~500 km wavelength were also seen west of India, far away (~1500 km) from their estimated center near Mahasen. Concentric gravity waves in the stratosphere were observed nearly simultaneously by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on the Aqua satellite. These multi-level observations provide a clearer picture of the complex three-dimensional structure of tropical cyclone-generated gravity waves than a single instrument alone.

  17. On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.; Shyu, K.

    1984-01-01

    Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

  18. Rainfall Generated By The Incidence Of Two Simultaneous Tropical Cyclones In Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, D. C.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study is to characterize the registered rainfall originated from the simultaneous incidence of two tropical cyclones in Mexico, during September 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific and Hurricane Ingrid (category 1) in the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall during a 24 hours period on September 15 and 18, 2013. Both systems, affected 77% of Mexican territory with heavy rainfall producing landslides and severe flooding. The unprecedented occurrence of two simultaneous tropical cyclones, along with the large damages registered in the country; make evident the need for a careful examination of the rainfall produced by their simultaneous incidence. For this, we utilize information from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), in combination with data from the rain gauge observations (from 1st to 16th September 2013). The selected remotely sensed products correspond to the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), 3B42RT and 3B42V7. Additionally, we estimate the performance of the TRMM products through well-known error metrics derived from the comparison of both, registered rainfall by rain gauges and that determined from 607 TMPA cells (0.25° x 0.25° containing at least one rain gauge). Results show that rainfall produced by the incidence of both storms, is similar to that registered as if the events occurred separately, accounting for about 10% of the annual precipitation total of 2013. Moreover, spatially averaged results indicate that the product 3B42V7 is a good estimate of daily precipitation across the country, while the TMPA 3B42RT product underestimates the amount of rainfall due to cyclonic events. Therefore, TMPA products provide acceptable estimates of rainfall for large-scale cyclonic events.

  19. Improving Ku-band Scatterometer Ocean Surface Wind Direction Retrievals in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, R. C.; Zhang, J.; Black, P. G.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are regions of very strong rain and very high winds, both of which present major challenges to surface wind vector retrieval from Ku-band scatterometers. Wind speed and wind direction retrievals can incur severe errors in regions of high rain rates. One particular signature of rain contamination is wind directions in the across-swath direction, which often leads to displaced circulation centers. Recently, Stiles et al. (2014) developed a method for retrieving QuikSCAT tropical cyclone wind speeds using a neural network approach that was tuned using H*WIND surface wind analyses and passive microwave-estimated rain rates from satellites. We are developing a scene-wide methodology by which a set of dynamically-consistent wind directions can be estimated from these wind speeds. The method is based on an iterative use of a tropical cyclone-specific sea-level pressure retrieval technique that we developed. The sea-level pressure analysis uses a boundary layer model that includes the dynamical shallowing of the tropical cyclone boundary layer toward the storm center, a roll-off in surface drag at high wind speeds, and, storm motion-corrected nonlinear mean flow advection effects. Scene-wide consistency is enforced by the integral nature (with respect to the surface wind vector field) of the derived surface pressure pattern and a constraint that the geostrophic contribution to the total flow is non-divergent. We are currently developing methods to evaluate the retrieved wind directions based on HRD aircraft observations and a limited-domain wind vector partitioning of the retrieved wind vectors into irrotational, non-divergent, and, background flow deformation contributions.

  20. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  1. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

    PubMed

    Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

    2015-10-13

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  2. A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

  3. Examination of the Impacts on Extended-Range Predictability of Midlatitude Weather Patterns due to Recurving Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harr, P.; Archambault, H.

    2013-12-01

    Many errors in extended-range forecasts of midlatitude weather patterns have been found to originate from the tropics. Tropical sources of errors are related to convection and the organization of convection by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively-coupled equatorial waves. The role of tropical convection as a source of errors in midlatitude forecasts has been predominantly examined during winter periods when the midlatitude jet stream is strong and the jet shifts equatorward such that there are dynamic and thermodynamic linkages between the tropics and midlatitudes. Based on several case studies, tropical cyclones that recurve from the tropics into the midlatitudes have been related to high-impact weather over downstream midlatitude regions. Furthermore, recurving tropical cyclones have also been identified as sources of errors and uncertainty in midlatitude forecasts. Although the midlatitude jet stream shifts poleward and is weaker in summer, a recurving tropical cyclone increases the linkage between the tropics and midlatitudes. Tropical convection and related impacts are brought to higher latitudes and upper-level outflow from the tropical cyclone can merge with and increase the intensity of the midlatitude jet stream. The purpose of the present study is to extend case studies of tropical cyclone impacts on predictability over the midlatitudes and establish the overall significance of such impacts. In this context, predictability is examined based on spread among ensemble members. Ensemble and deterministic extended-range predictions of synoptic-scale fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP/GEFS) Reforecast-2 are used to examine predictability in forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The once-daily (at 0000 UTC) Re-forecast-2 data are available from 1985 through the present and contain a deterministic forecast, control forecast and 10 perturbation members. This data set

  4. Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.

    2016-02-01

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, strongly influences tropical cyclone activity. During canonical El Niño, the warm phase, Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed. However, the past decades have witnessed different El Niño characteristics, ranging from warming over the east Pacific cold tongue in canonical events to warming near the warm pool, known as warm pool El Niño or central Pacific El Niño. Global climate models project possible future increases in intensity of warm pool El Niño. Here we use a climate model at a resolution sufficient to explicitly simulate tropical cyclones to investigate how these flavours of El Niño may affect such cyclones. We show that Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed regardless of El Niño type. For the warmest 10% of each El Niño flavour, warm pool El Niño is substantially less effective at suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones than cold tongue El Niño. However, for the same absolute warming intensity, the opposite is true. This is because less warming is required near the warm pool to satisfy the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection, which leads to tropical cyclone suppression through vertical wind shear enhancements. We conclude that an understanding of future changes in not only location, but also intensity and frequency, of El Niño is important for forecasts and projections of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

  5. Suppression of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity by Extratropical Rossby Wave Breaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, G.; Wang, Z.

    2014-12-01

    With warm SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and cold SST anomalies in the East Pacific, the reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity from August to early September in 2013 was a surprise to the hurricane community. Our analyses suggest that the suppressed storm activity can be attributed to the frequent occurrence of dry air in the middle to upper troposphere along with strong vertical wind shear. Such unfavorable conditions are directly related to the equatorward propagation and breaking of midlatitude Rossby waves, which lead to the equatorward intrusions of cold and dry extratropical air. Further examination suggests the active anti-cyclonic Rossby wave breaking and frequent equatorward intrusions of extratropical air in August 2013 were associated with changes of the midlatitude jet stream (i.e., acceleration, eastward extension and greater strain rate). The EOF analysis of 200-hPa zonal wind identifies a recurrent mode of interannual variability over Atlantic, which is associated with the variations of the intensity and zonal extent of the mid-latitude jet. This mode is found significantly correlated to Atlantic hurricane frequency in August, with a coefficient higher than the Nino3.4 index and comparable to the (relative) SST of Major Development Region (MDR). Our analyses thus emphasize the extratropical impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclones via the Rossby wave breaking. This physical link is missing in most statistical and hybrid forecast schemes and may help explain the seasonal prediction bust in 2013.

  6. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  7. A complete tropical cyclone radial wind structure model and comprehensive comparison with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavas, D. R.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2014-12-01

    This work develops a simple model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field at the top of the boundary layer. The model is constructed by mathematically merging existing theoretical solutions for the radial wind structure in the inner convecting and outer non-convecting regions. The model is then evaluated against three observational datasets. First, the outer solution is tested against a global database from the QuikSCAT satellite (1999-2009) and found to reproduce the characteristic wind structure of tropical cyclones at large radii where convection is absent, suggesting that it successfully captures the physics of this region. Second, the inner solution is tested against the HWind database (2004-2012) for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins and are shown to credibly represent the inner-core structure but substantially underestimate wind speeds at large radii. The complete model is then shown to largely rectify this underestimation, particularly at higher intensities. Finally, model variability is compared with the Extended Best Track dataset (1988-2013). The complete model exhibits two modes of variability corresponding to the independent variations in storm size and in inner structure that mirror that observed in nature, including the independent variability of the inner and outer regions of tropical cyclones. More broadly, the model provides insight into clear definitions of the terms "size" and "structure" and their respective, independent variabilities.

  8. Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

  9. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, S. E.; Leyland, J.; Hackney, C. R.; Heasley, E.; Kummu, M.; Lauri, H.; Parsons, D. R.; Nicholas, A. P.; Aalto, R. E.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the links between environmental change and sediment transport in the mega-rivers that dominate the flux of terrestrial sediment to the oceans remains a major challenge. Many large river systems display significant seasonality in flow regime, which is affected to a greater or lesser degree by the influence of large tropical storms, which act to increase their variability and thus drive uncertainty in predicting the impacts associated with changes in future flow regimes. Here we quantify the significance of tropical storms in driving sediment flux from one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong. Data was collected at Kratie, Cambodia; this being the site of the Mekong's final reliable flow gauging station before the Mekong delta. Suspended sediment fluxes were estimated by calibrating acoustic backscatter returns from an acoustic Doppler current profiler to observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) across a monsoon cycle. The retrieved SSCs were combined with flow velocity estimates to recover the sediment flux. These estimates of flux were then used to build sediment rating curves, taking account of hysteresis effects associated with sediment starvation on the falling limb of the Mekong's flood pulse, to predict suspended flux as a function of flow discharge. The derived sediment rating curves were then employed in an effective discharge analysis, initially using gauged flows, which include the effects of tropical storms, for the period 1981-2013. A hydrological model was then used to estimate daily discharge values for the same historical period, but for a scenario in which the effects of tropical storms on the flow regime are isolated. This was achieved by forcing the hydrological model with daily precipitation values that account for precipitation anomalies associated with observed tropical storms. The difference in cumulative sediment transport estimated by combining the two flow discharge scenarios with the constructed sediment rating

  10. Rates of floodplain accretion in a tropical island river system impacted by cyclones and large floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terry, James P.; Garimella, Sitaram; Kostaschuk, Ray A.

    2002-01-01

    Fluvial processes, especially rates of floodplain accretion, are less well understood in the wet tropics than in other environments. In this study, the caesium-137 ( 137Cs) method was used to examine the recent historical sedimentation rate on the floodplain of the Wainimala River, in the basin of the Rewa River, the largest fluvial system in Fiji and the tropical South Pacific Islands. 137Cs activity in the floodplain stratigraphy showed a well-defined profile, with a clear peak at 115 cm depth. Our measured accretion rate of 3.2 cm year -1 over the last ca. 45 years exceeds rates recorded in humid regions elsewhere. This is explained by the high frequency of tropical cyclones near Fiji (40 since 1970) which can produce extreme rainfalls and large magnitude floods. Since the beginning of hydrological records, large overbank floods have occurred every 2 years on average at the study site. The biggest floods attained peak flows over 7000 m 3 s -1, or six times the bankfull discharge. Concentrations of suspended sediments are very high (max. 200-500 g l -1), delivered mainly by channel bank erosion. In the future, climatic change in the tropical South Pacific region may be associated with greater tropical cyclone intensities, which will probably increase the size of floods in the Rewa Basin and rates of floodplain sedimentation.

  11. Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch.

    PubMed

    Fedorov, Alexey V; Brierley, Christopher M; Emanuel, Kerry

    2010-02-25

    Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of the Earth's climate system. In particular, by vigorously mixing the upper ocean, they can affect the ocean's heat uptake, poleward heat transport, and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions, the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean's wind-driven circulation. In the present climate, very few hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently, there is little heat exchange between waters at such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater heating of the parcels, warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer tropics and, in turn, even more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model, we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to contemporary climate change. PMID:20182509

  12. A spatial climatology of precipitation from North Atlantic tropical cyclones over the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over the eastern U.S has drawn significant attention from researchers. Among studies about tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP), separating rainfall into tropical and non-tropical cyclone components is a challenging task. Therefore, a need exists for continued spatial climatological analysis of rainfall associated of TCs. To provide a long-term climatology of TCP in this study, 305 TCs having tracks located within 500 km of the U.S. coastline from 1948-2012 are examined. The daily precipitation amounts on 0.25°× 0.25° latitude-longitude grids are from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Precipitation Data (UPD). A GIS and Python based method is developed to identify rainfall swaths produced by TCs. Then we overlay all TCP swaths on a U.S. county map to get cumulative frequency of counties receiving rainfall from a TC with value greater than 25.4 mm. We find that there are 2533 counties in 25 states had been affected by TCP with value greater than 25.4 mm at least once during 1948 to 2012. The total area of TCP and TCP area averaged by annual TC counts and days shows significant increases after the 1990s. By comparing the rainfall swaths to the wind swaths as reported by previous work, we determine the frequency with which locations receive either condition produced by TCs. The results reveal that TCPs extend more inland and have more frequency than TC winds, since TC winds decays quickly after make landfall, while rainfall field may expand due to extra-tropical transition or land surface conditions.

  13. Near-inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North-West Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rayson, M. D.; Ivey, G. N.; Jones, N. L.; Lowe, R. J.; Wake, G. W.; McConochie, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was applied to the Australian North-West Shelf (NWS) to hindcast the ocean response to four intense historical tropical cyclones (TCs). While the four cyclones had very different trajectories across the NWS, all passed within 150 km of a long-term vertical mooring located on the continental shelf in 125 m depth. The observed ocean response at this relatively shallow, Southern Hemisphere shelf site was characterized by the development of a peak in the counter-clockwise (CCW) near-inertial kinetic energy, mixed layer deepening, and subsequent restratification. Strong near-inertial isotherm oscillations were also observed following two of the cyclones. ROMS reproduced these features and also showed that the peak in the near-inertial CCW kinetic energy was observed on the left side of each cyclone trajectory. The time rate of change of near-inertial kinetic energy depended strongly on the storm Rossby number, i.e., defined based on the storm speed, the storm length scale, and the Coriolis frequency. The shallow water depth on the NWS resulted in first, a more rapid decay of near-inertial oscillations than in the deep ocean, and second a generation efficiency (the ratio of near-inertial power to the rate of wind work) of up to 10%, smaller than found for cyclones propagating across deeper water. The total energy put into near-inertial motions is nevertheless large compared to the background tidal energy. The rapid decay of near-inertial motions emphasizes the importance of frictional effects in characterizing the response to cyclone forcing in shallow seas.

  14. Influence of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone formation during the period 1-12 September 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Weiyu; Wu, Liguang; Shie, Chung-Lin

    2011-01-01

    Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data show that the Saharan air layer (SAL) is a dry, warm, and well-mixed layer between 950 and 500 hPa over the tropical Atlantic, extending westward from the African coast to the Caribbean Sea. The formations of both Hurricane Isabel and Tropical Depression 14 (TD14) were accompanied with outbreaks of SAL air during the period 1-12 September 2003, although TD14 failed to develop into a named tropical cyclone. The influence of the SAL on their formations is investigated by examining data from satellite observations and numerical simulations, in which AIRS data are incorporated into the MM5 model through the nudging technique. Analyses of the AIRS and simulation data suggest that the SAL may have played two roles in the formation of tropical cyclones during the period 1-12 September 2003. First, the outbreaks of SAL air on 3 and 8 September enhanced the transverse-vertical circulation with the rising motion along the southern edge of the SAL and the sinking motion inside the SAL, triggering the development of two tropical disturbances associated with Hurricane Isabel and TD14. Second, in addition to the reduced environmental humidity and enhanced static stability in the lower troposphere, the SAL dry air intruded into the inner region of these tropical disturbances as their cyclonic flows became strong. This effect may have slowed down the formation of Isabel and inhibited TD14 becoming a named tropical cyclone, while the enhanced vertical shear contributed little to tropical cyclone formation during this period. The 48-h trajectory calculations confirm that the parcels from the SAL can be transported into the inner region of an incipient tropical cyclone.

  15. Simple kinematic models for the environmental interaction of tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riemer, M.; Montgomery, M. T.

    2011-09-01

    A major impediment to the intensity forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) is believed to be associated with the interaction of TCs with dry environmental air. However, the conditions under which pronounced TC-environment interaction takes place are not well understood. As a step towards improving our understanding of this problem, we analyze here the flow topology of a TC immersed in an environment of vertical wind shear in an idealized, three-dimensional, convection-permitting numerical experiment. A set of distinct streamlines, the so-called manifolds, can be identified under the assumptions of steady and layer-wise horizontal flow. The manifolds are shown to divide the flow around the TC into distinct regions. The manifold structure in our numerical experiment is more complex than the well-known manifold structure of a non-divergent point vortex in uniform background flow. In particular, one manifold spirals inwards and ends in a limit cycle, a meso-scale dividing streamline encompassing the eyewall above the layer of strong inflow associated with surface friction and below the outflow layer in the upper troposphere. From the perspective of a steady and layer-wise horizontal flow model, the eyewall is well protected from the intrusion of environmental air. In order for the environmental air to intrude into the inner-core convection, time-dependent and/or vertical motions, which are prevalent in the TC inner-core, are necessary. Air with the highest values of moist-entropy resides within the limit cycle. This "moist envelope" is distorted considerably by the imposed vertical wind shear, and the shape of the moist envelope is closely related to the shape of the limit cycle. In a first approximation, the distribution of high- and low-θe air around the TC at low to mid-levels is governed by the stirring of convectively modified air by the steady, horizontal flow. Motivated by the results from the idealized numerical experiment, an analogue model based on a weakly

  16. Characterizing multi-hazard extreme distributions of coastal flooding induced by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; Toimil, Alexandra; del Jesus, Manuel; Méndez, Fernando; Medina, Raúl

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas, which are among the most populated regions on Earth, are the interface between continental land and the ocean. As a consequence of their location, they are subject to complex flooding dynamics, arising from the interaction between coastal and continental dynamics. This complexity is translated to the characterization of extreme distributions and the effects induced by climate change in the distribution of extreme events. In this work, we develop a methodology that serves to characterize the extreme distribution of flooding in a coastal environment. We focus in the dynamics induced by tropical cyclones that are both marine (storm surge and wave run-up) and continental (precipitation and runoff). Our approach makes uses of historical cyclones that have affected the study area in the past. This ensemble is augmented by synthetically generated cyclones in order to better cover the range of possible tracks. A maximum dissimilarity algorithm is used on the augmented database to select a reduced subset of tracks best representing the variability on the data (Camus et al. 2014). This subset is used to carry out a dynamical downscaling. Numerical simulations are carried out for these subset of tropical cyclones to derive the spatial fields of wind (by means of the Hydromet-Rankine Vortex model) and rainfall (using R-Clipper model) induced by the cyclone. SWAN model is used to derive the wave fields (Díaz et al. 2014), H2D to derive the storm surge fields and a CUENCAS-like model (IH-Mole) to derive runoff fields. All the flood-inducing dynamics are the input to the RFSM-EDA model that computes flood depths for the study area. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate synthetic time series of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone climate is related to the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) fields using a non-linear clustering technique, which are used in turn as the main driver of a Monte Carlo simulation. Flood time series are derived from

  17. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Induced Inland Flooding at Tar Pamlico River Basin of North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Qianhong

    Landfalling tropical cyclones often produce heavy precipitation and result in river and flash floods. Such floods can not only cause loss of human lives and properties, but also lead to ecological disasters in the affected watershed areas, estuaries and coastal waters. In order to better understand and simulate large coastal watershed hydrology and hydro-meteorological processes associated with tropical cyclones (TC) - induced inland flooding, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model (AnnAGNPS) have been employed in this study. The study focuses on four major hydro-meteorological identities and their interactions: 1) previous rainfall events, 2) synoptic atmospheric environment, 3) landfalling hurricane, and 4) surface and ground water hydrology. The research is divided into two parts. Part one focuses on the investigation of the impacts of previous rainfall events on watershed surface runoff while part two studies the impacts of the synoptic atmospheric environment on landfalling hurricanes and the resulting effect on surface runoff. Hurricane Floyd was chosen in this study as a special case because it produced massive flooding as a result of the combined effects of previous rainfall events from Hurricane Dennis and the synoptic atmospheric environment. The modeling results indicate that the AnnAGNPS model performs well in predicting the total amount of watershed runoff. However Muskingum channel routing is needed for AnnAGNPS to improve the hydrographs of flow discharge during hurricane events. Sensitivity analysis of soil saturated hydrological conductivity (Ks) indicates that both base flow and event total runoff are sensitive to Ks. Base flow increases as Ks increases when K s ≥15 m/day, but slightly decreases when K s > 15 m/day which is out of assumption of linear relationship from Darcy's law. Peak runoff exponentially decreases as Ks increases. The results show that without the

  18. Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Craig, Anthony P.; Bates, Susan C.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.

    2016-02-25

    This article discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric gridmore » cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.« less

  19. Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Craig, Anthony P.; Bates, Susan C.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric grid cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere-ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.

  20. Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Craig, Anthony P.; Bates, Susan C.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric grid cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.

  1. Mesoscale Aspects of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

  2. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, Sankar; Kotal, S. D.; Kundu, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October-December) during 1955-2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955-2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955-1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989-2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

  3. Importance of the upper-level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Da-Lin; Chen, Hua

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclone is examined using a 72-h cloud-permitting prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005) with a record-breaking intensity of 882 hPa. Results show the formation of an upper-level warm core from the descending air of stratospheric origin in the eye, which coincides with the onset of RI; it reaches the peak amplitude of more than 18°C from its initial conditions at the time of peak intensity. The descending air is associated with the detrainment of convective bursts in the eyewall, and it appears as (perturbation) cyclonic radial inflows above the upper outflow layer and causes the subsidence warming below. We hypothesize that the upper divergent outflow layer favors the generation of a warm core by protecting it from ventilation by environmental flows. Use of the hydrostatic equation shows that the warm core of stratospheric origin contributes more than twice as much as the lower-level warm column to the pressure change at the peak intensity of Wilma. Results suggest that more attention be paid to the magnitude of storm-relative flows and vertical wind shear in the upper troposphere, rather than just vertical shear in the typical 850-200 hPa layer, in order to reasonably predict the RI of tropical cyclones.

  4. Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Annual Frequency in Different Ocean Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Yating Zhao1, Jing Jiang1 1 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Abstract: Tropical cyclone, one of the most severe global natural disasters, causes massive casualties and economic losses every year, greatly influences the rapid development of the modern society. Using hurricane best track data from JTWC and TPC we investigate the decadal variations of TC activities. Our research indicates that the variability of TC frequency of different ocean basins (North Indian Ocean (NIO), Northwest Pacific Ocean (WP), Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP), North Atlantic Ocean (NA) and South Hemisphere (SH)) all have significant decadal periods, and these decadal signals have something connect with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which acting as the background, modulating and influencing the synoptic scale weather systems. Through diagnosing the oceanic and atmospheric circulation in different stages of PDO, we find that, as the PDO signal transmits through the Pacific Ocean, the atmospheric circulation changes accordingly all over the tropical ocean. And they influence the dynamic conditions in the troposphere and promote or restrain the tropical cyclone activities in these areas. In another word, in the positive phase of PDO, there are much more (less) TC activities observed over the NEP (NA, WP, NIO, SH), which very likely due to the favorable (unfavorable) environmental factors, such as higher (lower) SST, weaker (stronger) vertical wind shear, higher (lower) relative humidity in the middle level of troposphere, and low level positive (negative) vorticity in the local area. Meanwhile, what should be noted is that the primary environmental factor could be very different in different ocean basin. Keywords: tropical cyclone, decadal variability, PDO

  5. Pattern recognition analysis of satellite data for tropical cyclone motion and intensity forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, Herbert; Nunez, Edwin; Barker, Llyle; Rodgers, ED

    1986-01-01

    An objective empirical analysis technique is employed to investigate the extent to which satellite-obtained measurements (GOES IR and TOVS data) of a tropical cyclone and its environment can be used to predict cyclone motion. The paper describes the procedure used to process the satellite derived data in order to optimize their possible predictive value, the technique used in developing the regression algorithms, and the results of testing these algorithms using the Lachenbrach and Mickey (1968) procedure. The data were examined alone and in conjunction with available nonsatellite climatological and persistence variables for each storm. These predictors are similar to those used in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) CLIPPER model. The performances obtained using the Nichols Research Corporation CLIPPER model and the NHC CLIPPER model are compared, using homogeneous data sets for the comparisons. Major differences in results were found to be related to differences in the models.

  6. Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

    PubMed

    Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

    2015-12-15

    One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon. PMID:26611863

  7. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  8. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  9. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with

  10. A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2016-06-01

    Analysis of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (TC) track data for the months of May-June during 1979-2014 reveals a meridional dipole in TC intensification: TC intensification rates increased significantly in the northern region and decreased in the southern region. The dipole is consistent with changes in the large-scale TC environment estimated using the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) for the same period. While an increase in lower troposphere cyclonic vorticity and midtroposphere humidity in the northern Bay of Bengal made the environment more favorable for TC intensification, enhanced vertical wind shear in the southern Bay of Bengal tended to reduce TC development. These environmental changes were associated with a strengthening of the monsoon circulation for the months of May-June, driven by a La Niña-like shift in tropical Pacific SSTs and associated tropical wave dynamics. Finally, analysis of a suite of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive shows that most models correctly reproduce the link between ENSO and premonsoon Bay of Bengal TC activity at interannual timescales, demonstrating the robustness of our main conclusions.

  11. Analysis and prediction of integrated kinetic energy in Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael E.

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that approximates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, IKE and tropical cyclone structure are analyzed within historical Atlantic tropical cyclones from the past two decades in order to develop an understanding of the environmental and internal storm-driven processes that govern IKE variability. This analysis concurs with past research that IKE growth and decay is influenced by both traditional tropical cyclone development mechanisms and by other features such as extratropical transition and trough interactions. Using this framework, a series of statistical prediction tools are created in an effort to project IKE in Atlantic tropical cyclones from a series of relevant normalized input parameters. The resulting IKE prediction schemes are titled the "Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE)". The first version of SPIKE utilizes simple linear regression to project historical IKE quantities in a perfect prognostic mode for all storms between 1990 and 2011. This primitive model acts as a proof of concept, revealing that IKE can be skillfully forecasted relative to persistence out to 72 hours by even the simplest of statistical models if given accurate estimates of various metrics measured throughout the storm and its environment. The proof-of-concept version of SPIKE is improved upon in its second version, SPIKE2, by incorporating a more sophisticated system of adaptive statistical models. A system of artificial neural networks replaces the linear regression model to better capture the nonlinear relationships in the TC-environment system. In a perfect prognostic approach with analyzed input parameters, the neural networks outperform the linear models in nearly

  12. Idealized Cloud-System Resolving Modeling for Tropical Convection Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, Usama M.

    A three-dimensional limited-domain Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) is used in idealized settings to study the interaction between tropical convection and the large scale dynamics. The model domain is doubly periodic and the large-scale circulation is parameterized using the Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) Approximation and Damped Gravity Wave (DGW) methods. The model simulations fall into two main categories: simulations with a prescribed radiative cooling profile, and others in which radiative cooling profile interacts with clouds and water vapor. For experiments with a prescribed radiative cooling profile, radiative heating is taken constant in the vertical in the troposphere. First, the effect of turbulent surface fluxes and radiative cooling on tropical deep convection is studied. In the precipitating equilibria, an increment in surface fluxes produces a greater increase in precipitation than an equal increment in column-integrated radiative heating. The gross moist stability remains close to constant over a wide range of forcings. With dry initial conditions, the system exhibits hysteresis, and maintains a dry state with for a wide range of net energy inputs to the atmospheric column under WTG. However, for the same forcings the system admits a rainy state when initialized with moist conditions, and thus multiple equilibria exist under WTG. When the net forcing is increased enough that simulations, which begin dry, eventually develop precipitation. DGW, on the other hand, does not have the tendency to develop multiple equilibria under the same conditions. The effect of vertical wind shear on tropical deep convection is also studied. The strength and depth of the shear layer are varied as control parameters. Surface fluxes are prescribed. For weak wind shear, time-averaged rainfall decreases with shear and convection remains disorganized. For larger wind shear, rainfall increases with shear, as convection becomes organized into linear mesoscale systems. This non

  13. The impacts of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; LePage, Y.; Patel, P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Clarke, L.; Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence that anthropogenic climate change may alter patterns of tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial distribution, which in turn will alter the carbon balance of terrestrial systems in the large regions impacted by these storms. Recent studies project up to a doubling of major storms (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3-5) over the next century. Single large storms have been shown to be capable of causing committed carbon emissions equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink. These changes have the potential to affect climate mitigation strategies, most of which rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink to restrain the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Altered patterns of disturbances and the resulting changes to the carbon balance of terrestrial systems could impact the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, and thus future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology. Here we investigate the potential consequences of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies using a fully integrated model (iED) that links advanced ecological and socio-economic models. The model combines the regional integrated assessment algorithms of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the climate- sensitive ecosystem and carbon modeling in the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and the land-use mapping algorithms of the Global Land-use Model (GLM). We explore a range of scenarios of altered future tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial pattern, the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon balance, and the coupled effects on the food and energy sector under a range of future climate mitigation goals.

  14. Satellite radiothermovision of atmospheric mesoscale processes: case study of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ermakov, D. M.; Sharkov, E. A.; Chernushich, A. P.

    2015-04-01

    Satellite radiothermovision is a set of processing techniques applicable for multisource data of radiothermal monitoring of oceanatmosphere system, which allows creating dynamic description of mesoscale and synoptic atmospheric processes and estimating physically meaningful integral characteristics of the observed processes (like avdective flow of the latent heat through a given border). The approach is based on spatiotemporal interpolation of the satellite measurements which allows reconstructing the radiothermal fields (as well as the fields of geophysical parameters) of the ocean-atmosphere system at global scale with spatial resolution of about 0.125° and temporal resolution of 1.5 hour. The accuracy of spatiotemporal interpolation was estimated by direct comparison of interpolated data with the data of independent asynchronous measurements and was shown to correspond to the best achievable as reported in literature (for total precipitable water fields the accuracy is about 0.8 mm). The advantages of the implemented interpolation scheme are: closure under input radiothermal data, homogeneity in time scale (all data are interpolated through the same time intervals), automatic estimation of both the intermediate states of scalar field of the studied geophysical parameter and of vector field of effective velocity of advection (horizontal movements). Using this pair of fields one can calculate the flow of a given geophysical quantity though any given border. For example, in case of total precipitable water field, this flow (under proper calibration) has the meaning of latent heat advective flux. This opportunity was used to evaluate the latent heat flux though a set of circular contours, enclosing a tropical cyclone and drifting with it during its evolution. A remarkable interrelation was observed between the calculated magnitude and sign of advective latent flux and the intensity of a tropical cyclone. This interrelation is demonstrated in several examples of

  15. A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D.; Sathiaraj, David

    2015-06-01

    Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

  16. Building of tropical beach ridges, northeastern Queensland, Australia: Cyclone inundation and aeolian decoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamura, Toru; Nicholas, William; Brooke, Brendan; Oliver, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Processes associated with tropical cyclones are thought responsible for building coarse sand beach ridges along the northeastern Queensland coast, Australia. While these ridges are expected to be geological records of the past cyclone, they question the general consensus of the aeolian genesis of sandy beach ridges. To explore the ridge-forming process, we carried out the GPR survey, auger drilling, pit excavation, grain-size analysis, and OSL dating for coarse sand beach ridges at the Cowley Beach, northeastern Queensland. The Cowley Beach is a mesotidal beach characterized by a low-tide terrace and steep beach face. Ten beach ridges are recognized along the survey transect that extends 700 m inland from the shore. 37 OSL ages are younger seawards, indicating the seaward accretion of the ridge sequence over the last 2700 years. The highest ridge is +5.1 m high above AHD (Australian Height Datum). Two GPR units are bounded by a groundwater surface at c. +1.5 m AHD. The upper unit is characterized by horizontal to hummocky reflectors punctuated by seaward dipping truncation surfaces. These reflectors in places form dome-like structure that appears to be the nucleus of a beach ridge. The shape and level (+2.5 m AHD) of the dome are similar to those of the present swash berm. The lower unit shows a sequence of reflectors that dip at an angle of present beach face. The sequence is dissected by truncation surfaces, some of which are continuous to those in the upper unit. Coarse sand mainly forms beach ridge deposits below +4.0 m AHD, while a few higher ridges have an upward fining layer composed of medium sand above +4.0 m, which is finer than aeolian ripples found on the backshore during the survey. In addition, pumice gravel horizons underlie the examined ridge crests. The sequence of seaward dipping reflectors indicates that the Cowley Beach, like other many sandy beaches, has prograded during onshore sand accretion by fairweather waves and has been eroded by storms

  17. Tropical cyclone rainfall as measured by the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allison, L. J.; Wilheit, T. T.; Rodgers, E. B.; Fett, R. W.

    1974-01-01

    A selected group of 1973 North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones was studied by using data from the Nimbus 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR), the Temperature-Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR), NOAA-2 and USAF DMSP imageries. From the unique combination of infrared, visible, and microwave data, it was possible during various stages of storm development to differentiate between dense cirrus outflow and rain areas, to identify centers of circulation and areas of low-level moisture, and by the use of a theoretical model to estimate semi-quantitatively areas of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall rates.

  18. Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winters, Katherine A.; Roeder, William P.; McAleenan, Mike; Belson, Brian L.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.

    2012-01-01

    The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the

  19. Effect of tropical cyclones on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange observed using satellite observations over the north Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkat Ratnam, M.; Babu, S. Ravindra; Das, S. S.; Basha, G.; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswararao, B.

    2016-07-01

    Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the north Indian Ocean during 2007-2013 on the STE processes is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements, and ozone and water vapour concentrations in the UTLS region are obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km of the centre of the tropical cyclone. In our earlier study, we observed a decrease (increase) in the tropopause altitude (temperature) up to 0.6 km (3 K), and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) thickness of 3 km within 500 km of the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from the cyclone centre, whereas the enhancement in the water vapour in the lower stratosphere is more significant on the south-east side, extending from 500 to 1000 km away from the cyclone centre. The cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones is estimated and it is found that the mean flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere for cyclonic storms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10-3 kg m-2, and for very severe cyclonic storms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10-3 kg m-2. More downward flux is noticed on the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget, and consequentially the STE in the UTLS region.

  20. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Fiorino, M.; Goerss, J.S.; Jensen, J.J.; Harrison, E.J. Jr. Naval Research Lab., Monterey, CA Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA ARC Professional Services Group, Inc., Landover, MD )

    1993-03-01

    The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones. 35 refs.

  1. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

  2. Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are

  3. Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, James R.

    2004-01-01

    Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential

  4. Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, James R.

    2004-01-01

    Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential

  5. On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Indian Region Using a Synthetic Vortex Scheme in a Mesoscale Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandeep, S.; Chandrasekar, A.; Dash, S. K.

    2007-09-01

    The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. This contributes to a poor initial analysis of the cyclonic vortex and hence inadequate forecast. One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four cyclones. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. Also, the results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center of the cyclone. The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no

  6. An Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Their Impacts on Coastal Inundation in New York and New Jersey during the Last Millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.; Kemp, A.; Horton, B.

    2014-12-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend on the combined effect of storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising sea levels on which those surges occur. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to allow for accurate assessment of long-term trends in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, we downscaled four CMIP5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic basin that span from AD 850 to AD 2005. Using an interdisciplinary approach that combines these tropical cyclone simulations with storm surge models and local proxy sea-level reconstructions of the last two millennia, we provide insight into the connections between climate change, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and coastal flooding events like Hurricane Sandy of 2012. We present a comparison of pre-anthropogenic era (before AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (since AD 1800) storm surge model results from the New York/New Jersey region, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm surge heights. An analysis of the characteristics and metrics of the tropical cyclones that create storm surges in this region is also performed. Results of this work will be a step towards improved scientific prediction of coastal inundation as a result of sea-level rise and tropical cyclones in our changing climate.

  7. Integrated impact of tropical cyclones on sea surface chlorophyll in the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanshaw, M.N.; Lozier, M.S.; Palter, J.B.

    2008-01-01

    Past studies have shown that surface chlorophyll-a concentrations increase in the wake of hurricanes. Given the reported increase in the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes in recent years, increasing chlorophyll-a concentrations, perhaps an indication of increasing biological productivity, would be an expected consequence. However, in order to understand the impact of variable hurricane activity on ocean biology, the magnitude of the hurricane-induced chlorophyll increase relative to other events that stir or mix the upper ocean must be assessed. This study investigates the upper ocean biological response to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic from 1997-2005. Specifically, we quantitatively compare the anomalous chlorophyll-a concentrations created by cyclone activity to the total distribution of anomalies in the subtropical waters. We show that the cyclone-induced chlorophyll-a increase has minimal impact on the integrated biomass budget, a result that holds even when taking into consideration the lagged and asymmetrical response of ocean color. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi.

    PubMed

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel

    2012-09-01

    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment. PMID:22978739

  9. Tropical cyclone effects on the equatorial ionosphere: First result from the Indian sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guha, Anirban; Paul, Bapan; Chakraborty, Monti; De, Barin Kumar

    2016-06-01

    Ionospheric response to the effects of tropical cyclone (TC) "Mahasen" in 2013 and Hudhud in 2014 is studied on the equatorial ionosphere over the Indian sector for the first time using Global Positioning System-derived total electron content (TEC) data. We observed an anomalous decrease of 3.8 TEC unit (1 TECU = 1016 el m-2) in vertical TEC (VTEC) value from the monthly mean for TC Mahasen and 2.1 TECU for TC Hudhud on the day of the landfall. We have also observed similar VTEC depletion of 1.5, 1.9, and 2.1 TECU for three different receivers on the landfall day for TC Vongfong over Japan. This anomalous decrease is observed over a wide zone around the trajectory of the cyclone during the active cyclonic storm stage. This observed anomaly might be the result of combined effect of TC-inspired gravity waves, ejection of neutral particles from the terminator of a TC, and lightning electric fields which redistribute the chemical constituents of the ionosphere by increasing the number of neutral particles at different ionospheric heights, thus decreasing the TEC over the satellite-receiver path.

  10. A 15-Year Climatology of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Size Parameters.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kimball, Sytske K.; Mulekar, Madhuri S.

    2004-09-01

    The extended best-track (EBT) dataset combines the information contained in the tropical cyclone best-track dataset with measurements of tropical cyclone “size parameters.” These parameters include the radii of the eye (REYE), maximum winds (RMW), gale-force winds (or size; 17.5 m s-1; R17), damaging-force winds (25.7 m s-1; R26), hurricane-force winds (32.9 m s-1; R33), and the outermost closed isobar (ROCI). The latest update of this dataset, to be used in this study for a size parameter climatology, contains the size parameters for North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1988 to 2002. Such a climatology has not yet been established in this basin. Most of the results of this North Atlantic study agree with documented tropical cyclone theory and results from similar studies of northwest Pacific tropical cyclones. This provides confidence that the observations of the size parameters in the dataset are reliable. Furthermore, data west and east of 55°W (the boundary beyond which no aircraft observations are made) are compared. Some differences occur in some of the size parameters, but the sample west of 55°W is significantly larger and displays a greater spread. This provides confidence that the total dataset may not be affected by the nonaircraft data east of 55°W. The spatial and temporal distribution of the size parameters is investigated. The radii of gale-force (R17), damaging-force (R26), and hurricane-force (R33) winds tend to increase as storms move poleward and westward. North of 40°N, R33 and R26 decrease, while R17 increases. This is a reflection of storm weakening after recurvature. Gulf of Mexico storms have larger ROCIs but smaller eyes, R33s, R26s, and R17s than North Atlantic storms between 50° and 80°W. Gulf systems tend to form in the gulf instead of moving into this area from the Atlantic. Gulf incipient systems are likely to be tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) cells or monsoon trough features from the eastern Pacific instead of

  11. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy; Braswell, William D.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are

  12. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

    2001-01-01

    The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle- and upper-tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. The gradient wind equation is recast to include AMSU-A-derived variables, Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1-10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub B)), the squares of these gradients, a channel-15-based scattering index (SI(sub 89)), and area-averaged T(sub B). Calculations of T(sub B) and delta(sub r)T(sub B) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction, are also

  13. Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

    2012-10-01

    The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia-Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES' customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35ºE to 145ºE in the east—west direction and 12ºS to 40ºN in the north—south direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9 km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1º lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12 h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64 km with an average time error of about 5 h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6 hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12 m s-1.

  14. Linkages of remote sea surface temperatures and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity mediated by the African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson

    2015-01-01

    sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations demonstrates that warm NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower troposphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50°W-20°E; 10°N-20°N) of Atlantic TCs. By modulating multiple African monsoon processes, NAMED SST explains comparable and approximately one third of the interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency as that explained by local wind shear and local SST, respectively, which are known key factors that influence Atlantic TC development.

  15. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  16. Impact of tropical cyclones on the intensity and phase propagation of fall Wyrtki jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreenivas, P.; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2012-11-01

    Observations and model simulations are used to study the impact of tropical cyclones (TC) on the fall Wyrtki jets (WJ). These strong narrow equatorial currents peak during November and play a vital role in the energy and mass transport in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Maximum number of TCs is observed over TIO during November with longer than normal life span (8-15 days). These TCs enhance equatorial westerly winds (surface) and amplify monthly mean WJs (both at surface and subsurface) by 0.4 ms-1 (anomalies exceed 0.7 ms-1 during TC), which is about half of the climatological amplitude. Intensified WJs increase the heat content of eastern TIO and modulate air-sea interaction. It is also shown that movement of TCs is mainly responsible for the westward phase propagation of WJs, a previously unexplored mechanism. These features are evident in ECCO2 simulations as well.

  17. ESTIMATING THE BENEFIT OF TRMM TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA IN SAVING LIVES

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.

    2005-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint NASA/JAXA research mission launched in late 1997 to improve our knowledge of tropical rainfall processes and climatology (Kummerow et ai., 2000; Adler et ai., 2003). In addition to being a highly successful research mission, its data are available in real time and operational weather agencies in the U.S. and internationally are using TRMM data and images to monitor and forecast hazardous weather (tropical cyclones, floods, etc.). For example, in 2004 TRMM data were used 669 times for determining tropical cyclone location fixes (National Research Council, 2004). TRMM flies at a relatively low altitude, 400 km, and requires orbit adjustment maneuvers to maintain altitude against the small drag of the atmosphere. There is enough fuel used for these maneuvers remaining on TRMM for the satellite to continue flying until 2011-12. However, most of the remaining fuel may be used to perform a controlled re-entry of the satellite into the Pacific Ocean. The fuel threshold for this operation will be reached in the summer of 2005, although the maneuver would actually occur in late 2006 or 2007. The full science mission would end in 2005 under the controlled re-entry option. This re-entry option is related to the estimated probability of injury (1/5,000) that might occur during an uncontrolled re-entry of the satellite. If the estimated probability of injury exceeds 1/10,000 a satellite is a candidate for a possible controlled re-entry. In the TRMM case the NASA Safety Office examined the related issues and concluded that, although TRMM exceeded the formal threshold, the use of TRMM data in the monitoring and forecasting of hazardous weather gave a public safety benefit that compensated for TRMM slightly exceeding the orbital debris threshold (Martin, 2002). This conclusion was based in part on results of an independent panel during a workshop on benefits of TRMM data in concluded that the benefit of TRMM data in saving

  18. The role of African easterly waves on Atlantic tropical cyclone variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopsch, Susanna B.

    Coherent vorticity structures were identified at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ERA40 reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions for stormtracks over the Atlantic was found. Results show that the southern stormtrack provides most storms that reach the MDR where most tropical cyclones develop. Marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of storms leaving the West African coast exists, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in number of West African storms, both over land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated. In contrast, variance of 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of AEW activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with TC activity at interannual timescales. The extent to which the nature of AEWs leaving the West African coast is important for influencing the probability of becoming named storms downstream was also explored. The ERA40 dataset has been analyzed for July through September from 1979-2001 to generate a climatology of AEWs leaving the West African coast. A composite view of the structure of the AEWs and their large-scale environment was obtained by identifying all AEWs that were associated with named storms over the MDR. This was compared to the composite of all disturbances that ultimately failed to develop. It is shown that substantial differences in structure and characteristics exist of AEWs that become associated with tropical cyclones and the ones that don't. The most important differences between developing and non-developing AEWs include: (1) Developing AEWs have a distinctive cold-core structure before reaching the West coast. (2) They transform towards more warm

  19. Global Tropical Moisture Exports and their Influence on Extratropical Cyclone Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, P.; Wernli, H.; Gläser, G.

    2012-04-01

    Many case studies have shown that heavy precipitation events and rapid cyclogenesis in the extratropics can be fuelled by moist and warm tropical air masses. Often the tropical moisture export (TME) occurs through a longitudinally confined region in the subtropics. Here a climatology of TMEs to both hemispheres is constructed on the basis of seven-day forward trajectories, which were started daily from the tropical lower troposphere and which were required to reach a water vapour flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 somewhere poleward of 35 degrees. For this analysis 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim re-analysis data have been used for the 32-year period 1979-2010. A comparison with a TME climatology based upon the older ERA-40 re-analysis shows little sensitivity. The results are then related to the deepening of objectively identified (extratropical) cyclones in both hemispheres. On average TME trajectories move upwards and eastwards on their way across the subtropics in both hemispheres and are associated with both moisture and meridional-wind anomalies. TME shows four main regions of activity in both hemispheres: In the northern hemisphere these are the eastern Pacific ("Pineapple Express" region) with a marked activity maximum in boreal winter, the West Pacific with maximum activity in summer and autumn associated with the Asian monsoon, the narrow Great Plains region with a maximum in spring and summer associated with the North American monsoon and the western Atlantic or Gulf Stream region with a rather flat seasonal cycle. In the southern hemisphere activity peaks over the central and eastern Pacific, eastern South America and the adjacent Atlantic, the western Indian Ocean, and western Australia. Southern hemisphere TME activity peaks in boreal winter, particularly over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which suggests a significant influence of northern hemispheric Rossby wave energy propagation across the equator

  20. Response of Tropical Cyclone Tracks to Sea Surface Temperature in the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatsu, Masaru; Katsube, Kotaro

    2016-04-01

    A set of short-term experiments using a regional atmospheric model (RAM) were carried out to investigate the response of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific. For ten selected TC cases occurring during 2002-2007, a warm and a cold run are performed with 2 K and ‑2 K added to the SSTs uniformly over the model domain, respectively. The cases can be classified into three groups in terms of recurvature: recurved tracks in the warm and cold runs, a recurved track in the warm run and a non-recurved track in the cold run, and non-recurved tracks in both runs. Commonly the warm run produced northward movement of the TC faster than the cold run. The rapid northward migration can be mainly explained by the result that cyclonic circulation to the west of the TC is found in the steering flow in the warm run and it is not in the cold run. The beta effect is also activated under the warm SST environment. For the typical TC cases, a linear baroclinic model experiment is performed to examine how the cyclonic circulation is intensified in the warm run. The stationary linear response to diabatic heating obtained from the RAM experiment reveals that the intensified TC by the warm SST excites the cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere to the west of the forcing position. The vorticity and thermodynamic equation analysis shows the detailed mechanism. The time scale of the linear response and the teleconnection are also discussed.

  1. Impact of Aerosols on Tropical Cyclones: An Investigation Using Convection-permitting Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hazra, Anupam; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Taraphdar, Sourav; Chen, J. P.; Cotton, William R.

    2013-07-16

    The role of aerosols effect on two tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal are investigated using a convection permitting model with two-moment mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. The simulation results show the role of aerosol on the microphysical and dynamical properties of cloud and bring out the change in efficiency of the clouds in producing precipitation. The tracks of the TCs are hardly affected by the changing aerosol types, but the intensity exhibits significant sensitivity due to the change in aerosol contribution. It is also clearly seen from the analyses that higher heating in the middle troposphere within the cyclone center is in response to latent heat release as a consequence of greater graupel formation. Greater heating in the middle level is particularly noticeable for the clean aerosol regime which causes enhanced divergence in the upper level which, in turn, forces the lower level convergence. As a result, the cleaner aerosol perturbation is more unstable within the cyclone core and produces a more intense cyclone as compared to other two perturbations of aerosol. All these studies show the robustness of the concept of TC weakening by storm ingestion of high concentrations of CCN. The consistency of these model results gives us confidence in stating there is a high probability that ingestion of high CCN concentrations in a TC will lead to weakening of the storm but has little impact on storm direction. Moreover, as pollution is increasing over the Indian sub-continent, this study suggests pollution may be weakening TCs over the Bay of Bengal.

  2. Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol% high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater can occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

  3. Tropical cyclones cause CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater in a high-CO2 world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzello, Derek; Enochs, Ian; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Carlton, Renée.; Gledhill, Dwight

    2013-10-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2 system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current "business-as-usual" CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol % high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater will occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs.

  4. Contribution of tropical cyclone for the preconditioning of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during CINDY2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubota, H.; Yoneyama, K.; Hamada, J.

    2012-12-01

    During the international field experiment "Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011)", three Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) were generated over the Indian Ocean. In this study, the preconditioning process of the third MJO is investigated. After the second active phase of MJO reached maritime continent in early December 2011, its eastward propagation became unclear. Different convections were activated over the maritime continent in mid-December and third MJO was generated in late December over the Indian Ocean. During the preconditioning stage of the third MJO, westward propagating disturbances were observed from Sumatera Island to the central Indian Ocean and moistened the atmosphere. Convections over the Sumatera Island were activated from December 15th when the moist air mass reached from South China Sea. The origin of the moist air mass was tropical cyclone which was formed in South China Sea in December 10th. The high moisture associated with tropical cyclone activated the convection over Sumatera Island, promoted westward propagating disturbances, and acted a favorable environment for the preconditioning of the MJO.

  5. Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Forsyth, Anthony

    2012-07-01

    There are now a substantial number of millennial scale records of tropical cyclones from a variety of locations globally. Some of these, such as those in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, show patterns of long-term, generally intense, tropical cyclone (TC) behaviour that have been suggested to be due to either variations in ENSO or shifts in the position of the Atlantic High pressure system and the jet stream. Comparisons are made here of the sedimentary overwash records from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean Basin with the overwash records from the north-west Pacific and beach ridge records from the south-west Pacific and south east Indian Ocean basins. There is a substantial degree of synchroneity in global intense TC behaviour over the past 3,000 to 5,000 years. One of the most striking aspects of these records is they all display extended alternating periods (centuries to millennia) of relative quiescence and heightened intense TC activity irrespective of both the resolution and type of long-term TC record. The cause(s) of this punctuated activity are at present difficult to identify but are likely exogenic in origin rather than due to an intrinsic aspect of the records or the methods used to derive them. The identification of punctuated global long-term TC behaviour is important for understanding future TC activity and for assessing risk to coastal communities.

  6. Rossby wave energy dispersion from tropical cyclone in zonal basic flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Wenli; Fei, Jianfang; Huang, Xiaogang; Liu, Yudi; Ma, Zhanhong; Yang, Lu

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates tropical cyclone energy dispersion under horizontally sheared flows using a nonlinear barotropic model. In addition to common patterns, unusual features of Rossby wave trains are also found in flows with constant vorticity and vorticity gradients. In terms of the direction of the energy dispersion, the wave train can rotate clockwise and elongate southwestward under anticyclonic circulation (ASH), which contributes to the reenhancement of the tropical cyclone (TC). The wave train even splits into two obvious wavelike trains in flows with a southward vorticity gradient (WSH). Energy dispersed from TCs varies over time, and variations in the intensity of the wave train components typically occur in two stages. Wave-activity flux diagnosis and ray tracing calculations are extended to the frame that moves along with the TC to reveal the concrete progress of wave propagation. The direction of the wave-activity flux is primarily determined by the combination of the basic flow and the TC velocity. Along the flux, the distribution of pseudomomentum effectively illustrates the development of wave trains, particularly the rotation and split of wave propagation. Ray tracing involves the quantitative tracing of wave features along rays, which effectively coincide with the wave train regimes. Flows of a constant shear (parabolic meridional variation) produce linear (nonlinear) wave number variations. For the split wave trains, the real and complex wave number waves move along divergent trajectories and are responsible for different energy dispersion ducts.

  7. A New Method to estimate Daily Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from the GHCND Rain Gauges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (TCP) contributes a large portion of very extreme hydrological events. An accurate estimation of a long term TCP climatology is an essential to understand how it varies in the past and will change in the future. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCND) provides a global coverage of territorial surface daily weather observations with a reasonable spatial density. In this study, we will develop a new method to estimate the TCP from the GHCND daily rain observations and other TC Track information. We will focus on all historical storms impacted the North America Continent (from both the Atlantic and the Pacific Sides) in this study. The new method will consider major factors that influence the estimation accuracy, including the variations in spatial density of rain gauges, sizes and the forward speed of storms, and high wind speeds causing the underestimate of precipitation by the rain bucket. We will provide both the point estimation at the rain gauge and gridded product at 0.25 degree. The gridded product will be finally validated by the precipitation estimation from TRMM. We will make tests and tune this method to optimally fit the available historical observations, so it can be applied for other regions in the world in the future. Key Words: Tropical Cyclone, Precipitation, New Estimation Method

  8. Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cardone, Vincent J.; Cox, Andrew T.

    2000-01-01

    This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

  9. The benefits of using short interval satellite images to derive winds for tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E.; Gentry, R. C.; Shenk, W. E.; Oliver, V.

    1978-01-01

    During the 1975, 1976, and 1977, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Service and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center conducted a cooperative program to determine the optimum resolution and frequency of satellite images for deriving winds to study and forecast tropical cyclones. Rapid scan images were obtained at 7.5 minute interval from SMS-2 for hurricane Eloise and cyclone Caroline, and at 3 minute intervals from GOES-1 for tropical storms Belle, Holly, and Anita. Cloud motions were derived from these images using the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System. Winds that were derived from the movement of upper and lower tropospheric level clouds using rapid scan data were compared with the 15 and 30 minute interval data. Greater than 10 (5) times as many clouds could be tracked to obtain winds using 3 and 7.5 minute rapid scan images as when using 15 or 30 minute interval images. A few bright areas within the central dense overcast which appeared to be moving with the winds at low levels were tracked.

  10. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  11. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  12. Mechanisms for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Rivera, J. M.; Lin, Y.

    2013-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to simulate the last eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Katrina (2005) just before it's landfall in the Louisiana coastline. In this study, we pursue a complete understanding of the physics behind the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in tropical cyclones. The simulation results show the occurrence of the early stages of an ERC in the simulated storm just before landfall. This confirms that with the appropriate set of physics parameterization schemes, grid spacing and initial conditions, the numerical model is able to reproduce ERCs on certain tropical cyclones with no data assimilation or extra data inputs. Strong updrafts are observed to converge in a ring outside the primary eyewall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) suggesting SEF during that period. The increase of divergence outside the primary eyewall with an outer-ring of convergence forming above the boundary layer can be part of the mechanisms that lead to SEF. Also, potential vorticity (PV) field is analyzed for its possible relationship with the development of the secondary eyewall. This detailed study of the pre-ERC events in the inner-core of Hurricane Katrina can build the foundations for testing some of the existing hypotheses for the development of secondary eyewalls leading to new ideas behind their formation.

  13. Quadrant distribution of tropical cyclone inner-core kinematics in relation to environmental shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeHart, Jennifer C.

    Airborne Doppler radar data collected in tropical cyclones by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D aircraft over an eight-year period (2003-2010) is used to statistically analyze the vertical structure of tropical cyclone eyewalls with reference to the deep layer shear. Convective evolution within the inner core conforms to patterns shown by previous studies: convection initiates downshear-right, intensifies downshear-left and weakens upshear. Analysis of the vertical distribution of radar reflectivity and vertical air motion indicates the development of upper-level downdrafts in conjunction with strong convection downshear-left and a maximum in frequency upshear-left. Intense updrafts and downdrafts both conform to the shear asymmetry pattern. While strong updrafts occur within the eyewall, intense downdrafts show far more radial variability, particularly in the upshear-left quadrant, though they concentrate along the eyewall edges. Strong updrafts are collocated with low-level inflow and upper-level outflow superimposed on the background flow. In contrast, strong downdrafts occur in association with low-level outflow and upper-level inflow.

  14. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

  15. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainstorm and Its Preliminary Causes over the Hainan Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xianling; Ren, Fumin; Ma, Zhuguo; Cai, Qinbo

    2016-04-01

    From the viewpoint of tropical cyclone (TC) process maximum daily rainfall (TPMDR), characteristics of TC extreme rainstorms (TCERs) over the Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed using station daily precipitation data, Shanghai Typhoon Institute TC best track data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Frequencies of TPMDR ≥50mm, ≥100mm, and ≥250mm show significant decreasing trend (-0.7 times(10yr)-1), weak decreasing trend (-0.2 times(10yr)-1), and weak increasing trend (0.1 times(10yr)-1), respectively. TPMDRs of the three different levels are all frequent during July to October, with peak frequencies occurring mainly in September and August. For regional distribution, TPMDRs show an active center over western Hainan especially at the Changjiang station in frequency and intensity. Meanwhile, the TCs which cause extreme rainstorm over western Hainan display a main movement direction of northwestward tracks. Causes diagnoses of extreme rainstorm over western Hainan show that, the main factors include topography, TC movement speed, TC structure which deals with TC track and TC intensity, and the intensity of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. Key words: tropical cyclones, TC extreme rainstorm, characteristics, causes, the Hainan Island

  16. Combined impact of global river-floods and tropical cyclones on long-term economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Piontek, Franziska; Frieler, Katja

    2016-04-01

    Worldwide direct economic losses associated with the impact of river-floods and tropical cyclones have seen a rapid increase over time. Their nominal impact is projected to rise even further as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. Beyond the immediate damage of each event, indirect economic impacts can affect growth trajectories of countries as a whole for many years after the disaster. Whether the cumulated indirect effects stimulate or hinder economic growth in the long-run is so far undecided as previous studies find contradicting results depending on the analysed hazard and the underlying methodology. We here combine two types of the costliest meteorological disasters worldwide in order to gain certainty on their joint impact in a comprehensive way. Relative affected population by country and year is determined based on historical tropical cyclone tracks (IBTrACS) and historical simulations of river-flood return periods forced by observed weather and used as a predictor for the disaster's impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series. Controlling for various non-disaster related effects, we find a cumulated GDP deficit that remains robust for more than a decade after the event.

  17. The Air-Sea Interface and Surface Stress under Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, Alexander; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark; Ginis, Isaac

    2013-04-01

    Air-sea interaction dramatically changes from moderate to very high wind speed conditions (Donelan et al. 2004). Unresolved physics of the air-sea interface are one of the weakest components in tropical cyclone prediction models. Rapid disruption of the air-water interface under very high wind speed conditions was reported in laboratory experiments (Koga 1981) and numerical simulations (Soloviev et al. 2012), which resembled the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at an interface with very large density difference. Kelly (1965) demonstrated that the KH instability at the air-sea interface can develop through parametric amplification of waves. Farrell and Ioannou (2008) showed that gustiness results in the parametric KH instability of the air-sea interface, while the gusts are due to interacting waves and turbulence. The stochastic forcing enters multiplicatively in this theory and produces an exponential wave growth, augmenting the growth from the Miles (1959) theory as the turbulence level increases. Here we complement this concept by adding the effect of the two-phase environment near the mean interface, which introduces additional viscosity in the system (turning it into a rheological system). The two-phase environment includes air-bubbles and re-entering spray (spume), which eliminates a portion of the wind-wave wavenumber spectrum that is responsible for a substantial part of the air sea drag coefficient. The previously developed KH-type interfacial parameterization (Soloviev and Lukas 2010) is unified with two versions of the wave growth model. The unified parameterization in both cases exhibits the increase of the drag coefficient with wind speed until approximately 30 m/s. Above this wind speed threshold, the drag coefficient either nearly levels off or even slightly drops (for the wave growth model that accounts for the shear) and then starts again increasing above approximately 65 m/s wind speed. Remarkably, the unified parameterization reveals a local minimum

  18. Tropical Cyclone Outflow Structure Observed during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiments (2012-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Velden, C.

    2014-12-01

    Little is known about the detailed vertical and horizontal structure of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outflow layer owing to lack of in-situ observations in this region over the years. We hypothesize that TC outflow structure change due either to external environmental interactions or internal dynamical changes are related to TC intensity changes, making the outflow layer an important region of study for improvement of TC predictability. Dropsonde profiles through TC outflow layers were obtained during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) experiment (2012-2014) and the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment (2014). Using mini-dropsondes deployed with the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) from a NASA Global Hawk and eXpendable Digital Dropsondes (XDDs) deployed with the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) from a NASA WB-57F, new insights into the vertical structure of the TC outflow layer have been obtained. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) show that 'far-field' outflow jet dropsondes in Hurricane Leslie (2012) were obtained during a period of jet development and deformation in response the 'pincer effect' of an upper trough to the east and an upper cold low to west of Leslie. We speculate that the resulting deformation of the outflow layer and associated jet feature may have been responsible for limiting further development of Leslie. AMVs in Hurricane Nadine (2012) and pre-TC Gabrielle (2013) showed that outflow jets sampled by dropsondes developed over time scales of several hours. Wind profile observations in outflow jet 'roots' near 'convective bursts' showed that they were weaker and thicker near the convection and became thinner and stronger downstream as the 'far-field' region was sampled. All dropsonde profiles showed that the outflow layer contained numerous thin isothermal layers and layers of enhanced vertical wind shear. These numerous thin unstable layers were characterized by a super-critical Richardson number in

  19. The Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate in the North Western Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Chen, C.

    2011-12-01

    The tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate, including tropical depression stage, during 1945 to 2009 is analyzed using Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data. The area of interest is divided into many 4x4-degree boxes, and the boxes in which the intensification rate is 2.5 knots/6hrs or more are defined as a hot zone. The spatial pattern and temporal variability of the hot zone are discussed. On monthly time scale, the hot zone extends northeastward starting from June and retreats southwestward after September. The spatial pattern of the hot zone shows a phase change around 1977, coincident with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Therefore, the correlation between intensification rate, smoothed by 21-year running mean, of each 4x4-degree box and the PDO index is computed. The result shows an area with highly positive correlation (>= 0.8) stretching from southeast ocean of Japan via Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, coastal regions of Guangdong, Hainan Island to coastal regions of Vietnam, and an area with highly negative correlation (<=-0.8) over Philippine Sea. This correlation map indicates that during the PDO warm phase, the low latitude hot zone tends to be smaller, and the weakening of TCs over higher latitudes becomes less significant as well. In other words, the TC intensity tends to change less during the PDO warm phase on average. PDO has the most significant signal on sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the north central Pacific with its secondary signal in the tropics. However, our preliminary result shows that the most possible mechanism for PDO to influence TC development in the North Western Pacific is through the large-scale atmospheric circulation, rather SSTA in the tropics. When comparing the 850 hPa flow of the PDO warm phase with that of PDO cold phase, an anti-cyclonic anomaly appears in the vicinity of Philippine. Accompany with this anti-cyclonic anomaly is weaker low level vorticity and weaker high level divergence, all are not

  20. Possible relationship between East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong; Kang, Sung-Dae

    2016-04-01

    In the present study, the fact that strong positive correlations have existed between East Asian summer monsoons (EASMs) and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the last 37 years was found. To figure out the cause of these correlations, 7 years (positive East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) phase) that have the highest values and 7 years (negative EASMI phase) that have the lowest values in the normalized EASM index were selected and the differences in averages between the two phases were analyzed. In the positive EASMI phase, TCs mainly occurred in the northwestern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and showed a tendency to move from the far eastern waters of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move northward toward Korea and Japan. On the 500 hPa streamline, whereas anomalous anticyclones developed in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. Therefore, in this phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, western North Pacific summer monsoons (WNPSMs) were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. In addition, in the case of the East China Sea and the southern waters of Japan located between the two anomalous pressure systems, TCs could move some more toward the East Asia middle-latitude region in this phase. According to an analysis of the 850 hPa relative vorticity, negative anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region while positive anomalies were strengthened in the region south to 25 N. Therefore, in the positive EASMI phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, WNPSMs were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. According to an analysis of the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal divergence, whereas anomalous downward flows were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous upward flows were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. According to an analysis

  1. Global Tropical Cyclone Winds from the QuikSCAT and OceanSAT-2 Scatterometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stiles, B. W.; Danielson, R. E.; Poulsen, W. L.; Fore, A.; Brennan, M. J.; Shen, T. J.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    We have produced a comprehensive set of tropical cyclone storm wind retrieval scenes for all ten years of QuikSCAT data and one year of OceanSAT-2 data. The wind speeds were corrected for rain and optimized to avoid saturation at high winds using an artificial neural network method similar to that in [1] and [2]. The QuikSCAT wind imagery and the quantitative speed, direction, and backscatter data can be obtained at http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov. The QuikSCAT wind speeds have been validated against best track intensity (i.e., maximum wind speeds), H*WIND tropical cyclone wind model analysis fields, and wind speeds from aircraft overflights (GPS drop wind sondes and step frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) wind measurements). Storms from all basins are included for a total of 21600 scenes over the ten years of nominal QuikSCAT operations. Of these, 11435 scenes include the best track center of the cyclone in the retrieved wind field. Among these, 3295 were of tropical storms and 788, 367, 330, 289, and 55 were of category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes, respectively, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. In addition to the QuikSCAT hurricane winds, we have also processed one year of wind fields from the Indian Space Research organization (ISRO) OceanSAT-2 satellite. OceanSAT-2 employs a scanning pencil beam Ku-band scatterometer with a design similar to QuikSCAT. JPL and NOAA have been working extensively with ISRO to aid in cross calibration between OceanSAT-2 and QuikSCAT. Toward this end the QuikSCAT instrument has been repointed in order to acquire data at the OceanSAT-2 incidence angles, and several meetings in India between the teams have taken place. The neural network that was trained on QuikSCAT data was used to retrieve OceanSAT-2 winds. The backscatter inputs to the network were transformed to match the histograms of the corresponding values in the QuikSCAT data set. We examine the scatterometer winds to investigate the relationship between

  2. Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, H. Michael; Blakeslee, Richard; Conover, Helen; Hall, John; He, Yubin; Regner, Kathryn

    2009-01-01

    Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

  3. The Aeroclipper, a new device to explore tropical convective systems and cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippe, Duvel Jean

    The Aeroclipper is a new balloon device designed to perform relatively long flights (up to 30 days) in the surface layer (under 50 m) over remote ocean regions. The balloon carries a guide rope floating at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper moves on quasi-Lagrangian trajectories, performing in situ measurements in the atmospheric surface layer and at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper is able to measure low level dynamics and surface turbulent fluxes for several weeks over remote regions of the tropical oceans. Like superpressure balloons in the boundary layer, an Aeroclipper is attracted toward convective regions by the low-level wind convergence generated by the associated low surface pressure. Compared to Eulerian platforms (moored buoys) or to oceanographic ships, these balloons are thus expected to increase atmospheric boundary layer sampling in active convective systems. During the Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (VASCO) test experiment (Indian Ocean in January and February 2007), two Aeroclippers survived in tropical cyclone Dora, enduring wind speed larger than 40 ms-1 and giving continuous estimates of tangential and radial winds as a function of the distance from the eye during the convergence phase. The two Aeroclippers then stayed in the eye of Dora for more than a week and remained captured in the low-pressure center when Dora became an extra-tropical depression. Due to this success in mechanical design, and despite some deficiencies of the present system that require new developments, we think that such a device has a good potential for further use, especially for cyclone nowcasting. The scientific objectives of the Aeroclipper; its current design and instrumentation; some preliminary results of the VASCO test experiment; and future experiments will be presented.

  4. Analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensify change using data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jiang

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This study aims to tackle two factors that account for the underperformance of current TC intensity forecasts: (1) inadequate observations of TC structures, and (2) deficient understanding of the underlying physical processes governing TC intensification. To tackle the problem of inadequate observations of TC structures, efforts have been made to extract vertical and horizontal structural parameters of latent heat release from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data products. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) was conducted first to explore the feasibility of using the 3D TC structure information in predicting TC intensification. Afterwards, several structural parameters were extracted from 53 TRMM PR 2A25 observations on 25 North Atlantic TCs during the period of 1998 to 2003. A new generation of multi-correlation data mining algorithm (Apriori and its variations) was applied to find roles of the latent heat release structure in TC intensification. The results showed that the buildup of TC energy is indicated by the height of the convective tower, and the relative low latent heat release at the core area and around the outer band. Adverse conditions which prevent TC intensification include the following: (1) TC entering a higher latitude area where the underlying sea is relative cold, (2) TC moving too fast to absorb the thermal energy from the underlying sea, or (3) strong energy loss at the outer band. When adverse conditions and amicable conditions reached equilibrium status, tropical cyclone intensity would remain stable. The dataset from Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction

  5. Influence of Tropical Cyclones Period 1970 TO 2010 IN the Region of Bahia de Banderas, Nayarit-Jalisco Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) that made landfall in populated areas along the Pacific coast of Mexico, especially in the region of Bahia de Banderas. During the period of 1970-2010 and used a database of international natural disasters to identify impacts. Were more than 13 events during the reporting period, of which 10 are examined more precipitation accumulated and 6 that caused further damage to the affected population in these cases ranged from 5000 to more than 15 000 inhabitants. Strong winds and heavy rainfall in periods of one to three days were associated with property damage and loss of life. The results of the study indicate that excessive accumulations of rain and daily intensity are important factors connected with the occurrence of disasters in densely populated areas. Six of the first 10 Tropical Cyclone associated with major disasters occurred in conditions of El Niño and four neutral conditions. With the analysis of satellite images using GOES-10 in the IDV software maps were obtained in the coastal impacts of Banderas Bay and describes the main features of each meteorological phenomena. In which concludes that no tropical cyclone entered directly to the Banderas Bay region, but its effects were very relevant, taking into account the topography, land use change and the vulnerability of the region. Tropical Cyclones that have affected the region of Bay of Banderas

  6. The Intensity-dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in a Simplified Energetic System and a Full Physics Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Several recent studies based on best track data for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic revealed a strong dependence of the TC intensification rate (IR) on TC intensity. The TC IR shows a maximum (i.e., most rapid intensification) when the TC intensity reaches about 35 - 40 m s-1. Physically, this intensity-dependence has been explained in terms of the inner-core inertial stability and the decreased potential for a TC to intensify as it approaches its maximum potential intensity (MPI). Here, we propose a new simplified dynamical system based on TC energetics. For this purpose, the TC system is considered as a Carnot heat engine as in earlier theoretical studies, and formulated on the grounds of major energy production and dissipation processes. This offers a way to explain the IR behavior of TCs in terms of its sensitivity to the physical processes involved, and to derive a physically-based relationship between TC intensification and intensity. This relationship is consistent with observations, and in quantitative agreement with that gained from empirical relations in an alternative dynamical system proposed by DeMaria(2009), which has been formulated analogously to the logistic growth equation (LGE). Results from idealized full-physics model simulations confirm the validity of several key assumptions implicitly involved in the simplified dynamical system and the intensity-dependence of the TC IR as well.

  7. An intercomparison of tropical cyclone best-track products for the southwest Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Andrew D.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Kiem, Anthony S.

    2016-06-01

    Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) provide a spatio-temporal comparison of three TC best-track (BT) databases and explore any differences between them (and any associated implications) and (ii) investigate whether there are any spatial, temporal or statistical differences between pre-satellite (1945-1969), post-satellite (1970-2011) and post-geostationary satellite (1982-2011) era TC data given the changing observational technologies with time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0-35° S, 135° E-120° W) from 1945 to 2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), including anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity (VORT), anomalously negative vertical shear of zonal winds (VSZW), anomalously negative 700 hPa geopotential height (GPH), cyclonic (absolute) 700 hPa winds and low values of absolute vertical wind shear (EVWS). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945-1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although data from

  8. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  9. Saharan dust, lightning and tropical cyclones in the eastern tropical Atlantic during NAMMA-06

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Pratt, Aaron

    2008-06-01

    During the summer of 2006, the downstream component of African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Campaign (NASA-AMMA (NAMMA)) examined African Easterly Waves (AEWs) emerging from the coast of Africa. Six of these disturbances went on to become named systems in the Tropical Atlantic. Two of the six systems (Tropical storm Debby and Hurricane Helene) developed in the extreme eastern Atlantic and were associated with dust outbreaks, elevated ice contents and frequent lightning. Here we show that in the early tropical cyclo-genesis stages of these systems there were thousands of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes as measured by a ground-lightning network. TRMM overpasses show high precipitation ice content above the freezing level and high latent heat release. Super-cooled water can be inferred in the lower parts of cloud systems in concert with observed high ice concentrations at high altitudes creating charge separation based on the large numbers of CG flashes.

  10. Tropical cyclone intensity estimation using temporal and image analysis of satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fetanat, G.; Homaifar, A.; Knapp, K.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming an increasing threat to life and property. Developing an automated technique to estimate TC intensity and to overcome the existing errors in estimation is still a challenge. The Dvorak technique (DT) is the state-of-the-art method that has been used over three decades for estimating the intensity of a tropical cyclone. The DT subjectively estimates TC intensity based on visible and infrared satellite images. In spite of wide usage of the DT for TC analysis, it has some limitations. The most important one is that the DT does not use the valuable historical data mainly because of the challenges on computing and human resources. This research is inspired by the availability of historical TC satellite data. We hypothesize that discovering unknown regularities and abnormalities that may exist in the large group of past observations could help human experts interpret TC intensity changes from various points of view. Our goal is to provide a data mining tool that increases the ability of human experts to analyze huge amount of historical data for TC intensity estimation. The proposed intensity estimation algorithm has two parts: temporal constraints and image analysis. Temporal information provides a priori estimates of storm intensity (in terms of wind speed) prior to using any satellite image analysis. Hurricane Satellite data (HURSAT-B1) includes best-track intensity are used as a training data. A case study using North Atlantic Hurricane Satellite data from 1988-2009 is considered. The temporal analysis uses the age of the cyclone, 6, 12 and 24 hours prior intensities as predictors of the expected intensity. The 10 closest analogs (determined by a K-nearest-neighbor algorithm) are averaged to estimate the intensity. The distribution of intensity estimation errors of the proposed technique shows that 50% of the estimates have a mean absolute error less than 4.4 knots, 75% are 6.3 knots and 90% are within 8 knots. Several validation

  11. Evaluating preferred direction tropical cyclone track variability in an operational global ensemble prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elless, Travis J.

    Ensemble forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight instances where variability in tropical cyclone (TC) position forecasts are stretched along a preferred direction. The goal of this thesis is to analyze this stretching of variability in a global ensemble prediction system, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to determine how often and under what conditions does variability stretching occur, and ultimately what feature(s) are responsible for generating this variability. This study defines and evaluates preferred direction variability through a 2008--2012 global climatology of ECMWF TC position variability. A basin by basin comparison found stretching of the variability tends to occur most frequently in the West Pacific and least frequently in the Atlantic. Other forecast characteristics such as location, motion, and intensity are examined in each basin, and highlight midlatitude effects being associated with preferred direction variability. However, other features unique to each basin could also be playing a role in generating preferred direction variability. Possible sources of preferred direction variability are examined through a case study of ECMWF ensemble forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 24 June 2012 for Tropical Storm Debby. Zonal magnitude differences in Debby's steering layer wind are identified as the source for generating the associated variability stretching. Further evaluation however, cannot relate these differences to one feature, suggesting multiple processes are in play in generating preferred direction variability.

  12. A weather analysis system for the Baja California peninsula: tropical cyclone season of 2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfan, L. M.; Cosio, M. A.

    2008-05-01

    General characteristics of tropical weather systems were documented on a real-time basis. The geographical area of interest is the Baja California peninsula, located in northwestern Mexico. This study covers the warm season of 2007, from May through October, and includes observations derived from radar and satellite imagery as well as reports from a network of rain gauges. A set of graphical products were generated and they were available to the public through the internet. The analysis system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and it is focused to document the development of tropical cyclones in eastern Pacific Ocean. During the season of 2007, this basin had a total of 11 tropical storms and four of them were within 800 km from the west coast of Mexico (Dalila, Ivo, Juliette and Kiko). Only one system made landfall in the area of interest: Hurricane Henriette which moved across Baja California, the Gulf of California and a portion of the state of Sonora. This presentation provides an overview of the graphical products along with lessons learned from the season studied, collaborations with local emergency managers and plans for the upcoming season of 2008.

  13. Water security and societal impacts of tropical cyclones in northwestern Mexico, 1970-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, C. A.; Farfan, L.

    2012-12-01

    Hydroclimatic variability is one of several potential threats to water security, defined as sustainable quantities and qualities of water for resilient societies and ecosystems in the face of uncertain global environmental change. Other threats can stem from human dimensions of global change, e.g., long-distance trade of water-intensive agricultural commodities or pollution resulting from industrial production and mining in response to rising global market demand. Drought and water scarcity are considered the principal, chronic, hydroclimatic drivers of water insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions. In these conditions, however, rainfall is both the water-supply lifeline and, in extreme events, the cause of flood hazard. In this study, we consider the monsoon-dominated Pacific coast of Mexico and assess the human impacts from tropical cyclone landfall over the past four decades (1970-2010). Storm data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, rainfall reports from Mexico's National Meteorological Service, and indicators from an international disaster database at Belgium's Université Catholique de Louvain are used to assess the impacts of more than 30 landfall events. For the ten events with the greatest population impact, between 20,000 to 800,000 people were affected by each landfalling cyclone. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly when sustained over periods of 1-3 days, result in significant property damage and loss of life. Results indicate that, in densely populated areas, excessive rainfall accumulations and high daily rates are important causes of cyclone disasters. Strengthening water security associated with extreme events requires planning via structured exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. Adaptive management that accounts for uncertainties, initiates responses, and iteratively assesses outcomes is the thrust of an emerging water-security initiative for the arid Americas that seeks to strengthen water security in northwestern

  14. Change of tropical cyclone activity by Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Cha, Eun-Jeong

    2010-10-01

    This study shows that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern has a significant influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the boreal summer (July, August, and September). During positive (negative) PJ phase, TCs form at a more northward (southward) location, recurve at a more northeastward (southwestward) location, and frequently pass over the northeast Asian (southeast Asian) region, including Korea and Japan (South China Sea and southern China). In particular, this difference in the TC track between the two phases is observed as a dipole-like pattern between the regions of Southeast and Northeast Asia. The TC characteristics during the positive PJ phase are caused by the following two stronger atmospheric circulations over the WNP: an anticyclonic circulation centered to the east of Japan and a cyclonic circulation centered to the east of Taiwan. The southeasterly between these two circulations serves as steering flow that TCs move northward toward Korea and Japan from the northeast of the Philippines. Conversely, TCs during the negative PJ phase mainly move westward toward the South China Sea and southern China by the easterly from a stronger anticyclonic circulation centered to the east of Taiwan. As a result of this feature of TC track during the negative PJ phase, TC lifetime is shorter and TC intensity is weaker.

  15. MISR CMVs and Multiangular Views of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Dong L.; Diner, David J.; Garay, Michael J; Jovanovic, Veljko M.; Lee, Jae N.; Moroney, Catherine M.; Mueller, Kevin J.; Nelson, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Multi-camera stereo imaging of cloud features from the MISR (Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) instrument on NASA's Terra satellite provides accurate and precise measurements of cloud top heights (CTH) and cloud motion vector (CMV) winds. MISR observes each cloudy scene from nine viewing angles (Nadir, +/-26(sup o), +/-46(sup o), +/-60(sup o), +/-70(sup o)) with approximatel 275-m pixel resolution. This paper provides an update on MISR CMV and CTH algorithm improvements, and explores a high-resolution retrieval of tangential winds inside the eyewall of tropical cyclones (TC). The MISR CMV and CTH retrievals from the updated algorithm are significantly improved in terms of spatial coverage and systematic errors. A new product, the 1.1-km cross-track wind, provides high accuracy and precision in measuring convective outflows. Preliminary results obtained from the 1.1-km tangential wind retrieval inside the TC eyewall show that the inner-core rotation is often faster near the eyewall, and this faster rotation appears to be related linearly to cyclone intensity.

  16. Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Asaro, Eric D'; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Liu, Hailong; Zedler, Sarah E.

    2015-08-01

    To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average of temperature down to a fixed depth was proposed as a replacement for SST within the framework of air-sea coupled Potential Intensity (PI). However, the depth to which TC-induced mixing penetrates may vary substantially with ocean stratification and storm state. To account for these effects, here we develop a "Dynamic Potential Intensity" (DPI) based on considerations of stratified fluid turbulence. For the Argo period 2004-2013 and the three major TC basins of the Northern Hemisphere, we show that the DPI explains 11-32% of the variance in TC intensification, compared to 0-16% using previous methods. The improvement obtained using the DPI is particularly large in the eastern Pacific where the thermocline is shallow and ocean stratification effects are strong.

  17. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    SciTech Connect

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; Lim, Young -Kwon; Reed, Kevin A.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Zhao, Ming; Henderson, Naomi

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  18. Impact of hyperspectral radiance in the simulation of tropical cyclone using NCUM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Routray, A.; George, John P.; Singh, Vivek; Rani, Indira

    2016-05-01

    The socioeconomic aspects of life in coastal regions of India are significantly affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) over North Indian Ocean (NIO). It is well known that the lack of conventional observation over the ocean is a critical factor limiting the accuracy of the TC forecast. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of hyperspectral sounder measurements from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the MetOp satellite on TC simulation using NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) with 17 km horizontal resolution. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of hyperspectral radiance data has a positive impact on the prediction of track and intensity of TC.

  19. Effects of Surface Sensible Heat Fluxes on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Zhanhong; Fei, Jianfang

    2016-04-01

    The contributions of surface sensible heat fluxes (SHX) to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure are examined in this study by conducting cloud-resolving simulations. Results suggest that although the peak values of SHX could account for nearly 30% of those of the total surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, the impact of SHX on TC intensification is nonetheless not distinct. However, the TC size shows great sensitivity to the SHX that the storm is shrunk by over 20% after removing the SHX. The reduced total surface enthalpy fluxes due to the removal of SHX do not necessarily result in weakened TCs, while the larger surface latent heat fluxes (LHX) basically correspond to stronger TCs. This suggests that the TC intensity is largely dependent on the LHX rather than the total surface enthalpy fluxes, although the latter is generally dominated by the former.

  20. Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean’s impact on tropical cyclones

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, Ruby L.; D'Asaro, Eric; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Liu, Hailong; Zedler, Sarah E.

    2015-08-18

    To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average of temperature down to a fixed depth was proposed as a replacement for SST within the framework of air-sea coupled Potential Intensity (PI). However, the depth to which TC-induced mixing penetrates may vary substantially with ocean stratification and storm state. To account for these effects, here we develop a “Dynamic Potential Intensity” (DPI) based on considerations of stratified fluid turbulence. For the Argo period 2004–2013 and the three major TC basins of the Northern Hemisphere, we show that the DPI explains 11–32% of the variance in TC intensification, compared to 0–16% using previous methods. The improvement obtained using the DPI is particularly large in the eastern Pacific where the thermocline is shallow and ocean stratification effects are strong.

  1. Increase in the Intensity of Postmonsoon Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2014-05-28

    The post-monsoon (October-November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal has spawned many of the deadliest storms in recorded history. Here it is shown that the intensity of post-monsoon Bay of Bengal TCs, and the contribution of major TCs to total TC power, increased during 1981-2010. It is found that changes in environmental parameters are responsible for the observed increases in TC intensity. Increases in sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made the ocean more conducive to TC development, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of TCs. The largest changes in the atmosphere and ocean occurred in the eastern Bay of Bengal, where nearly all major TCs form. These changes are part of positive linear trends, suggesting that the intensity of post-monsoon Bay of Bengal TCs may continue to increase in the future.

  2. Sensitivity of quasi-periodic outer rainband activity of tropical cyclones to the surface entropy flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qingqing; Duan, Yihong

    2013-10-01

    The influence of outer-core surface entropy fluxes (SEFs) on tropical cyclone (TC) outer rainband activity is investigated in this study with a fully compressible, nonhydrostatic model. A control simulation and two sensitivity experiments with the outer-core SEF artificially increased and decreased by 20% respectively were conducted to examine the quasi-periodic outer rainband behavior. Larger negative horizontal advection due to the greater radial wind and the positive contribution by asymmetric eddies leads to a longer period of outerrainband activity in the SEF-enhanced experiment. The well-developed outer rainbands in the control and SEF-reduced simulations significantly limit the TC intensity, whereas such an intensity suppression influence is not pronounced in the SEF-enhanced experiment. As diabatic heating in outer rainbands strengthens the outer-core tangential wind, the quasi-periodic activity of outer rainbands contributes to the quasi-periodic variations of the inner-core size of the TCs.

  3. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young -Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin A.; et al

    2014-12-05

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TCmore » frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.« less

  4. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Roberts, Malcom J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Wehner, Michael F.; Zhao, Ming; Henderson, Naomi

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  5. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Wang, Hui; Wehner, Michael F.; Zhao, Ming

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  6. Marine climate influences on interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean: 1979-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2015-04-01

    Interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Caribbean is studied using MIT-Hurdat fields during the July-October season from 1979 to 2008. TC intensity shows local climate sensitivity particularly for upper ocean currents, salinity and mixed-layer depth, and 200-850 mb wind shear. Remote influences from the Southern Oscillation, Saharan dust, and the South American monsoon are also identified as important. Ocean currents diminish along the coast of South America, so interbasin transfer between the North Brazil and Caribbean Currents declines in seasons of frequent and intense TCs. This is related to a dipole pattern in the sea surface height formed mainly by reduced trade wind upwelling northeast of Venezuela. A low-salinity plume from the Orinoco River spreads across the eastern Caribbean. It is the weaker currents and shallower mixed layer that conspire with surplus heat to build thermodynamic energy available for TC intensification.

  7. Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.; Gray, W. M.; Vonder Haar, T. H.

    1978-01-01

    A new technique is presented for estimating central pressure and surface winds outside of the radius of maximum winds from brightness temperatures measured by the SCAMS on Nimbus 6. The problem of estimating maximum surface winds is not treated because the spatial resolution of the radiometer is not high enough for this purpose. The technique is developed on the basis of measurements over eight typhoons and five hurricanes during 1975. It is shown that the warm 55.45-GHz brightness temperature anomaly previously observed over Typhoon June can be found over other tropical cyclones. Maximum brightness temperature anomaly correlates with central pressure with a correlation coefficient of -0.859. Outer surface wind speeds are calculated by assuming gradient balance and using the regression between brightness temperature anomaly and central pressure to estimate pressure gradients.

  8. Structures of Mesocirculations Producing Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Cyclone Frances (1998)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Gandikota V.; Scheck, Joshua W.; Edwards, Roger; Schaefer, Joseph T.

    2005-08-01

    Radar structures of one mesocyclone and one mesocirculation (the term mesocirculation refers to a class of rotating updrafts, which may or may not be as spatially and temporally large as a typical mesocyclone) that developed a total of four tornadoes in association with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances 1998 are presented. One tornado developed within an inner rainband near the time of landfall while three of the other tornadoes developed within an outer rainband nearly 24 hours after the landfall. Radar reflectivities of the tornadic circulations averaged upwards of 40 dBZ while Doppler radar wind components directed toward the radar averaged 11 m s-1. It is realized that although TC Frances was a minimal hurricane it spawned several tornadoes (four of which were studied) causing damage exceeding 2 million. These tornadoes were not all located close to the TC center, serving as a caution to forecasters and emergency personnel that the immediate landfalling area is not the only place to watch.

  9. Influence of ENSO on formation of tropical cloud clusters and their development into tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, Hsu-Feng; Lee, Cheng-Shang; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the activity of tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP). A TCC must have at least one embedded mesoscale convective system and it must persist for more than 24 hours. In all, 2,248 TCCs were identified during July-October 1981-2009. While more (less) TCCs form in the eastern (western) part of the WNP during El Niño years than during normal years, the converse is true during La Niña years. The ratio of tropical cyclone (TC) numbers to TCC numbers (genesis productivity) was 27.3%, higher than found in previous study. TC genesis productivity does not correlate with the Oceanic Niño Index even in subregions of the WNP. The influence of ENSO on TC numbers in each subregion of the WNP was mainly due to changes in TCC number, not changes in TC genesis productivity.

  10. Impacts of the two types of El Niño on Pacific tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Shibin; Huang, Fei

    2015-04-01

    It is well known that Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the Pacific are affected by El Niño events. In most studies El Niño phenomena have been separated into east Pacific warming (EPW) and central Pacific warming (CPW) based on the location of maximum SST anomaly. Since these two kinds of El Niño have different impacts on Pacific tropical cyclone activities, this study investigates different features of TC activities and the genesis potential index (GPI) during EPW years and CPW years. Four contributing factors, i.e., the low-level absolute vorticity, the relative humidity, the potential intensity and the vertical wind shear, are examined to determine which factors are most important in causing the anomalous TC activities. Our results show that during EPW years in July-August (JA0), TC activities are more frequent with stronger intensity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP). The maximum anomaly center of TC activities then drifts eastward significantly in September-October (SO0). However, centers of anomalous TC activity barely change from JA0 to SO0 during CPW years. In January-February-March (JFM1) of the decaying years of warming events, TC frequency and intensity both have positive anomaly over the South Pacific. The anomalies in EPW years have larger amplitude and wider spatial distribution than those in CPW years. These anomalous activities of TC are associated with GPI anomaly and the key factors affecting GPI anomaly for each ocean basin are quite different.

  11. Improved tropical cyclone intensity and intensity spread prediction in bifurcation situations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Elsberry, Russell L.

    2014-11-01

    Bifurcation or bi-modal tropical cyclone intensity forecasts may arise due to uncertainty in the timing of formation, timing and magnitude of rapid intensification periods, or track forecast uncertainty leading to landfall or non-landfall or leading to interaction with warm- or cold-ocean eddies. An objective technique is developed and tested to detect these intensity bifurcation situations in our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) forecasts that are based on the 10 best historical analogs to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) official track forecasts. About 19% of the overall sample of 1136 WANI forecasts in the western North Pacific during the 2010-2012 seasons met the criteria for a substantial intensity bifurcation situation. Using a hierarchical clustering technique, two clusters of the 10 best analogs are defined and separate WANI forecasts and intensity spreads are calculated for the two clusters. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WANI forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WANI forecasts based on all 10 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WANI forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 120 h. Without further bias correction and calibration, the cluster WANI intensity spreads are under-determined as the Probability of Detections are smaller than the desired 68%. Four examples of WANI cluster predictions of intensity bifurcation situations are provided to illustrate how a correct choice of the intensity forecast and the intensity spread can be the basis for improved warnings of the threat from western North Pacific tropical cyclones.

  12. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    PubMed

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes. PMID:20623002

  13. Effects of tropical cyclone characteristics on the surface wave fields in the Australian North West region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drost, Edwin; Lowe, Ryan; Péquignet, Christine; Ivey, Greg; Jones, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    The northwestern Australian coastline is subject to frequent extreme wave forcing resulting from tropical cyclones (TCs) during the summer months on Australia's North West Shelf (NWS). Compared to the northern hemisphere, knowledge about the wave climate, and TC generated waves in particular on the NWS is limited. TCs on the NWS show considerable variability in paths: some move predominantly parallel to the coastline, while others propagate in a coast-normal direction. It has been suggested that surface wave fields generated by coast-parallel moving TCs are different compared to TCs moving in a coast-normal direction across the shelf. In particular, wave heights generated by coast-parallel storms may be limited in size due to both refraction and bottom friction effects. First, this study evaluates the performance of a numerical wave model (SWAN) to hindcast the surface wave fields under different TC conditions forced by a parametric TC wind model of the region. Hindcast simulations were run for 4 case studies: the coast-parallel TCs Nicholas (2008) and Bianca (2011), and the coast-normal TCs Lua (2012) and Christine (2013). Model output was compared both temporally and spatially by in situ wave buoy data and satellite altimeter data and generally showed a good agreement for throughout the history of these TCs. However, for the more intense and larger system TC Lua, the model was found to overestimate the significant wave heights, especially in the left front quadrant of the storm. A modified SWAN model using adjusted wave energy dissipation terms was found to improve model output under these conditions. Second, output from the numerical simulations is used to analyse the mechanisms behind the generation and dissipation of the wave field and to relate them to tropical cyclone characteristics including the radius of maximum winds and the storm translation speed and direction.

  14. Simulation of wind performance in tropical cyclone for China's future dual-frequency wind field radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dou, Fangli; Yin, Honggang; Gu, Songyan

    2014-11-01

    Ocean surface wind vectors (OVW) from scatterometers have been proved to be of great benefit to marine weather analysis and numerical model prediction. Conventional single-frequency scatterometers are capable to measure substantially accurate wind fields in clear atmospheric conditions, whereas winds obtained in marine extreme weather conditions are not so satisfying due to the high wind speed saturation effect and the rain perturbation. Therefore, a dualfrequency wind field measuring radar (WIFIR) to be onboard FengYun-3E is being predesigned to obtain relatively accurate wind fields in all weather conditions, which will compensate for the single-frequency shortcomings. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential ability of WIFIR to measure OVW in tropical cyclones. A high-fidelity forward model was developed to simulate the sea surface normalize radar cross sections (NRCS) measured by WIFIR. The wind and rain rate fields used to drive the model are generated by UWNMS cloud model for Hurricane Ivan in 2004. High-wind GMFs and a theoretical rain model, which includes attenuation and volume scattering effect, have been utilized to describe the forward model. Based on the simulation results, the impact of rain on radar measurements and a dual-frequency retrieval algorithm were studied. The dual-frequency method was shown to have the ability to obtain information of rain rates up to 30mm/hr, and acquire more accurate wind vectors than single-frequency measurements. This method will be more effective to improve wind retrieval accuracy in tropical cyclones with the synchronous observation of microwave humidity sounder (MWHS) aboard FY-3 satellite.

  15. Reexamination of tropical cyclone heat potential in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, Akiyoshi

    2016-06-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26°C isotherm depth, has been widely used for tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting and climatological studies. This study reexamines TCHP and the relation to TCs in the western North Pacific in view of the importance of the oceanic reference isothermal depth. Original TCHP is not applicable around the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions because the value is zero where sea surface temperature is below 26°C. Therefore, this study proposes an improved version of TCHP as new TCHP under relatively weak baroclinic conditions in the atmospheric environment during the TC season from July to November. The alternative oceanic reference isothermal temperature (TRef24) used to calculate new TCHP is determined based on 2 m dew point temperature or 24°C when it is lower than 24°C. We examine the relationship between TCHPs and changes in best track central pressures during the previous 6 h from 2002 to 2012. Relatively high new TCHP is associated with deep oceanic isotherm depth and the decrease in TRef24 around the Kuroshio region from September to November. Case studies for Typhoons Maemi (2003), Songda (2004), and Roke (2011) reveal that TCs could intensify/redevelop around the Ryukyu Islands over warm eddies revealed by high new TCHP, where original TCHP is relatively low. The results indicate that new TCHP can be a metric for TC intensification caused by wind-induced surface heat exchange processes associated with atmospheric temperature and moisture near the surface and upper ocean stratification.

  16. A Study of Tropical Cyclones over India (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and Solar Influence on It

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Dhruba

    2016-07-01

    A prominent example of extreme weather event in India is Cyclonic Storm. In this paper annual variation of tropical Cyclonic Storm (CS), Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS), Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) and Super Cyclonic Storm (SuCS) over Bay Of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (ARS) during last 20 years (1990-2009) have been analyzed .The analysis revels that the total number of cyclone (TNC) has increased with high rate(gradient being +1.67 per year) and although C.S. is more over BOB than that over ARS.The rate of increase of C.S. over Arabian Sea is more than that over Bay of Bengal. Furthermore, two interesting features have been noted: (i) Monsoon tends to prohibit the formation of C.S (ii) Cyclonic Storm(C.S.) increases with the increase of Global Sea Surface Temperature (GSST) during said period.. Attempt has also been made to find out the influence of solar activity on these extreme weather events. Keeping in mind that the Sun Spot Number (SSN) is an indicator of the strength of solar effects, it has been found that in most of the times the high value of SSN is associated with small number of total cyclone (C.S.). Specifically, when only the years of high Sun's Spot Number (approximately greater than 90) are taken into consideration then Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) between SSN and number of cyclones comes out to be quite high (-0.78) significance at 99.99% level while Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) of cyclones with time is 0.53 and with SSN < 60 it is..095 . Thus it appears that although C.S. frequency is increasing with time, Sun's Spot's influence is such that it basically opposes the formation of cyclone provided SSN exceeds certain critical value (roughly 90). In principle, this is very important for any such event, and it is consistent with the trend of different phenomena occurring in nature. Key words: India, cyclone, solar influence, Critical Sun's Spot Number

  17. Impacts and Recovery from Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef

    PubMed Central

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey; Puotinen, Marjetta; Marshall, Paul; Dryden, Jen; Goldberg, Jeremy; Williams, Gareth

    2015-01-01

    Full recovery of coral reefs from tropical cyclone (TC) damage can take decades, making cyclones a major driver of habitat condition where they occur regularly. Since 1985, 44 TCs generated gale force winds (≥17 metres/second) within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). Of the hurricane strength TCs (≥H1—Saffir Simpson scale; ≥ category 3 Australian scale), TC Yasi (February, 2011) was the largest. In the weeks after TC Yasi crossed the GBRMP, participating researchers, managers and rangers assessed the extent and severity of reef damage via 841 Reef Health and Impact Surveys at 70 reefs. Records were scaled into five damage levels representing increasingly widespread colony-level damage (1, 2, 3) and reef structural damage (4, 5). Average damage severity was significantly affected by direction (north vs south of the cyclone track), reef shelf position (mid-shelf vs outer-shelf) and habitat type. More outer-shelf reefs suffered structural damage than mid-shelf reefs within 150 km of the track. Structural damage spanned a greater latitudinal range for mid-shelf reefs than outer-shelf reefs (400 vs 300 km). Structural damage was patchily distributed at all distances, but more so as distance from the track increased. Damage extended much further from the track than during other recent intense cyclones that had smaller circulation sizes. Just over 15% (3,834 km2) of the total reef area of the GBRMP is estimated to have sustained some level of coral damage, with ~4% (949 km2) sustaining a degree of structural damage. TC Yasi likely caused the greatest loss of coral cover on the GBR in a 24-hour period since 1985. Severely impacted reefs have started to recover; coral cover increased an average of 4% between 2011 and 2013 at re-surveyed reefs. The in situ assessment of impacts described here is the largest in scale ever conducted on the Great Barrier Reef following a reef health disturbance. PMID:25874718

  18. Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holdaway, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the

  19. Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events for the Hudson River Induced by Tropical Cyclones: a Statistical Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, F.; Hall, T. M.; Lall, U.; Orton, P. M.; Cioffi, F.; Georgas, N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. That points are the closure sections of five different watersheds. Two different approaches are used and compared: 1) an ANN-cyclone/rainfall clustering model which calculates the rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed, that are then used as inputs of an ANN rainfall/runoff model; 2) an ANN/ Bayesian multivariate approach that translates the TC attributes ( track, SST, Velocities,..) directly in streamflows in the tributaries. Finally, the streamflows of the tributaries of the Hudson River are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly and daily station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Seven stream gauges (Croton River, Rondout Creek, Wappinger Creek, Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford) and over 20 rain gauges are

  20. Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013. Part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

  1. Convection in tropical cyclones associated with vapor volume reduction - a new concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mardhekar, D.

    2010-09-01

    Low pressure zone formation due to convection in a tropical cyclone is associated by a newly discovered phenomenon. The explanation is based on Avogadro's law. According to the law 18 grams (molecular weight expressed in grams) of water when evaporated occupies 22.414 litres of vapor at standard temperature and pressure (STP). Therefore, 1.0 gram of water in the vapor form will occupy 1.245 litres. That is, 1245 ml volume of vapor at STP when condensed will form 1.0 ml volume of water. Due to the phase change that is from water vapor to liquid water, huge reduction in volume occurs. The process of condensation of vapor into liquid water from the vapor component of the vapor-rich air is continuously taking place in a tropical cyclone particularly in the eye wall on a very large scale. The condensed water precipitates as rain or forms clouds. Each ml of the rain leaves behind a vacant space equal to 1245 ml forming a low-pressure zone and consequently a pressure gradient force is formed. Therefore, when there are continuous heavy rains in the eye wall, the magnitude of the low pressure zone and the pressure gradient force forming continuously in the condensation regions of the eye wall is gigantic. At the same time the latent heat released in the condensation process is absorbed by the remaining air component, it becomes warmer and buoyant, therefore ascends and ultimately escapes from the top of the cyclone as the outflow, again forming a low pressure zone. Thus, continuous condensation and continuous ascent and escape of warm air from the top together form a continuous pressure gradient and the vapour-rich air is continuously sucked up from below, that is from above the sea surface in the region of the eye wall due to the continuously forming pressure gradient force maintaining the near sea surface convergence of the vapour rich air. The value 1245 changes with change in temperature and pressure, but it does not affect the presented concept. The formation of the

  2. Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

  3. Past, present and future of Tropical Cyclone climatology over CORDEX South-Asia domain: A coupled regional climate model study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, P.; Sein, D.; Koldunov, N.; Hodges, K.; Haensler, A.; Daniela, J.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) in the Indian Ocean arise from cyclonic disturbances that naturally form in the inter-tropical convergence zone between 5N and 20N latitudes when sea surface temperatures (SST) are at 27C or above. This relationship between SST and TC formation and intensification implies that rising SST in the climate change era will increase the probability of tropical cyclone formation and that therefore as global temperatures rise so will the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. However horizontal resolution of the global general circulation models used in IPCC simulations are usually too coarse to reproduce many smaller scale processes like TC. We present a novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios, which could be also used to investigate the generation and propagation of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean. The REgional atmosphere MOdel REMO is coupled to the global ocean - sea ice model MPIOM with increased resolution over the Indian Ocean (~20km). The resulting coupled system called ROM. The coupled domain is standard CORDEX south Asia domain (0.44 deg). The models are coupled via the OASIS coupler. Exchange between ocean and atmosphere was made every three hours. Lateral atmospheric and upper oceanic boundary conditions outside the coupled domain were prescribed using ERA40, MPIESM-LR historical and MPIESM-LR RCP85 data. Here we present the results of the dynamical downscaling approach both coupled (ROM) and uncoupled (REMO) simulations for the same period. The validation period (ERA40 and Historical) is 1958-2001. While comparing with observations mean (1958-2001) annual frequency of 8 TC/year, ROM simulated with ERA40 (Historical) TCs are 12 (10), whereas with REMO they are 21 (18). Therefore ROM simulated TC frequency is much more realistic than REMO. REMO has simulated two times more TCs than ROM, hence leading to strong overestimation of TC tracks densities over the region. Scenario simulations (RCP85) showed

  4. Investigation of predictability during the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, J. H.; Jones, S. C.; Anwender, D.

    2010-09-01

    Several times per year tropical cyclones pass through a recurvature after their typical tropical life-cycle. They start to interact with the mid-latitude flow and may be transformed into an extratropical system. Such an extratropical transition (ET) process of a tropical cyclone often leads to a reduction in the predictability for the synoptic development of the cyclone itself as well as for the downstream region. Recent studies investigated the predictability during ET events based on the variability among members of single operational medium-range ensemble forecasts. The new THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) provides an opportunity to extend these previous studies. TIGGE was established in the world weather research program THORPEX and combines the forecasts of 10 different EPS, operated at weather services all over the world. They are based on different assumptions, initial perturbation methods, resolutions and they also differ in the number of ensemble members, contained in the forecast. Thus TIGGE offers the possibility to compare predictability during ET events in a number of different ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Furthermore, TIGGE may show new possible development scenarios that could not be gained, using one single EPS. To extract the information, contained in the ensemble forecasts, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the variance-covariance-matrix of the forecast field in question. By calculating the principal components we get information, how each member, contained in the ensemble forecast contributes to the obtained EOF distribution. Using a fuzzy clustering, all members that show a related contribution, are grouped together. Thus, this analysis process allows us to extract possible development scenarios out of the ensemble forecast and at the same time we gain information about the possibility of these scenarios. For our investigations eight of the ten TIGGE EPS are used and interpolated to the same

  5. Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven J.

    1999-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis has been conducted of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring within a landfalling tropical cyclone that produced an outbreak of strong and damaging tornadoes. Radar data indicate that 12 convective cells were responsible for 29 tornadoes, several of which received an F3 intensity rating, in the southeastern United States on 16 August 1994 within the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl. Of these 12 tornadic storms, the most active cell produced 315 flashes over a 5.5 hour period, while the other storms were less active. Three tornadic storms failed to produce any CG lightning at all. In general, the tornadic storms were more active electrically than other non-tornadic cells within Beryl's remnants, although the flash rates were rather modest by comparison with significant midlatitude severe storm events. Very few positive polarity flashes were found in the Beryl outbreak. During some of the stronger tornadoes, CG flash rates in the parent storms showed sharp transient decreases. Doppler radar data suggest the stronger tornadic storms were small supercells, and the lightning data indicate these storms exhibited lightning characteristics similar to those found in heavy-precipitation supercell storms.

  6. Necessary Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 11 Years of TRMM Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, H.; Ramirez, E. M.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding and predicting intensity changes, especially rapid intensification (RI), of tropical cyclones (TCs) require some understanding of not only the large-scale environment condition, but also the convective and precipitation properties of the storm. Convective and rainfall properties of TCs are statistically quantified for different TC intensity change categories by using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data from December 1997 to December 2008. Four 24-h future intensity change categories are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying, neutral, and weakening. Maximum convective intensity in the inner core is not necessarily more intense prior to undergoing an RI episode than a slowly intensifying, neutral, or weakening episode. Instead, a minimum threshold of convective intensity, raining area, and total volumetric rain in the inner core has to be reached before a storm undergoes RI. The following necessary conditions for RI are found in the inner core: maximum near surface radar reflectivity > 40 dBZ, maximum 20 (30, 40) dBZ echo height > 8 (6, 4) km, minimum 85 (37) GHz polarization corrected brightness temperature (PCT) < 235 (275) K, minimum 10.8 μm brightness temperature < 220 K, total raining area > 3,000 km^2, and total volumetric rain > 5,000 mm h-1 km^2. It is also found that total lightning activities in the inner core (outer rainband) have a negative (positive) relationship with storm intensification.

  7. North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration since 1550 A.D. revealed using a Belizean stalagmite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldini, Lisa; Baldini, James; Frappier, Amy; Ridley, Harriet; Asmerom, Yemane; Prufer, Keith; Breitenbach, Sebastian; Aquino, Valorie; Polyak, Victor; Awe, Jaime

    2015-04-01

    A gradual shift in the geographic distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms from the western Caribbean to the US Atlantic Coast between 1550 and 1983 A.D. is revealed by an annually-resolved, 456-year record of tropical cyclone (TC) activity reconstructed using sub-annually resolved carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in stalagmite YOK-G from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Annual geochemical cycles combined with 230Th dating provide excellent chronological control, and the hurricane season signal intensity is reconstructed using seasonally-specific isotope ratios. The stalagmite hurricane season signal correlates very well with HURDAT2 western Caribbean TC count over the calibration period (1945-1983) as well as over the 25-year verification period. Our record suggests very few TCs affected the western Caribbean in the mid-1500s, but that this was followed by gradually rising western Caribbean TC activity that peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Western Caribbean TC activity then decreases gradually from the mid-1600s to present day, with abrupt shifts at 1790 A.D. and 1870 A.D. Comparison with basin-wide TC reconstructions reveals a northward shift in the geographic distribution of TC impacts over the past few hundred years, from dominantly western Caribbean during the LIA to substantially more along the North American Atlantic margin during the 20th Century. Our reconstruction suggests that NAO variability played a major role in driving these shifts in dominant storm tracks through time.

  8. Assessing Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill in the GEFS Reforecast Version 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; LI, W.; Peng, M.

    2015-12-01

    The prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Version-2 is evaluated. The GEFS captures the seasonality of TC genesis (TCG) reasonably well over the Atlantic. The performance of the model varies over different basins, and quantitative errors are found in the spatial distribution of TCGs. The biases in TC tracks are largely attributed to the biases in the TCG and the the large-scale steering flows. Analyzing the genesis potential index (GPI) shows that the biases in the monsoon trough and subtropical high induce the TC biases in the western North Pacific, while the southward displacement of the ITCZ leads to errors in TCG over the eastern North Pacific. The over-prediction of TCGs near the West African coast is associated with the hyperactive tropical easterly waves over the African continent. The diabatic heating rate (Q1) field in the GEFS forecasts suggests a much deeper and stronger convection than in the ERA-Interim, which can be attributed to the deficiency of model cumulus scheme. The study suggests that the better prediction of the large-scale circulation and synoptic-scale waves can help improve the TC forecasts.

  9. Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Haozhe; Yang, Jing; Gong, Daoyi; Mao, Rui; Wang, Yuqing; Gao, Miaoni

    2015-12-01

    A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°-20°N, 105°-170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°-25°N, 115°-155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

  10. Relationships between eastern Pacific tropical cyclones and convective rainfall in Baja California, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfan, L. M.; Cosio, M. A.

    2007-05-01

    The influence of tropical cyclones in rainfall patterns over the Baja California peninsula is examined. The impact of these systems, over the southern portion of the peninsula, is analyzed and the study period is limited to the summer of 2004. This is associated with the field phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), which is intended to improve predictions of warm season precipitation over North America. We used the best-track dataset from the U.S. National Hurricane Center to classify, based on distance from the circulation center, systems that approached the peninsula at ranges of 400-, 800- and 1200-km. During the season of 2004, activity was below the long-term annual mean with nine systems developing between July and September. Four cases were selected for subsequent analysis: Tropical Storm Blas, Hurricane Frank, Hurricane Howard, and Hurricane Javier. Data from the upper-air station at La Paz were used to evaluate humidity changes during the storm approach and rain gauge reports provided information to determine the spatial distribution of the convective precipitation. Our analysis shows that, when compared with a base period of 15 years, 2004 resulted in below normal precipitation over the southern peninsula. In contrast, above normal conditions occurred in the central peninsula.

  11. Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Types and Electrical Field Information Observed by High Altitude Aircraft Instrumentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Robbie E.; Blakeslee, Richard; Cecil, Daniel; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Marks, Frank

    2004-01-01

    During the 1998 and 200 1 hurricane seasons of the Atlantic Ocean Basin, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes and tropical storms were sampled during these experiments. A rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these tropical cyclones (TC) collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35,37.1, and 85.5 GHz and verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower altitude horizontal reflectivity scam collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOM) P-3 radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electrical field information collected by the LIP readily identifl convective rain regions within the TC precipitation fields. Strengths and weaknesses of the rainfall classification procedure will be discussed as well as its potential as a real-time analysis tool for monitoring vertical updrafl strength and convective intensity from a remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicle.

  12. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Induced Transgression of the Chandeleur Islands for Restoration and Wildlife Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reahard, Ross; Mitchell, Brandie; Brown, Tevin; Billiot, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Barrier Islands are the first line of defense against tropical storms and hurricanes for coastal areas. Historically, tropical cyclonic events have had a great impact on the transgression of barrier islands, especially the Chandeleur Island chain off the eastern coast of Louisiana. These islands are of great importance, aiding in the protection of southeastern Louisiana from major storms, providing habitat for nesting and migratory bird species, and are part of the second oldest wildlife refuge in the country. In 1998, Hurricane Georges caused severe damage to the chain, prompting restoration and monitoring efforts by both federal and state agencies. Since then, multiple storm events have steadily diminished the integrity of the islands. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 thwarted all previous restoration efforts, with Hurricane Gustav in 2008 exacerbating island erosion and vegetation loss. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 2-4 Multispectral Scanner (MSS), and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) will be utilized to detect land loss, island transgression, and vegetation change from 1979 to 2009. This study looks to create a more synoptic view of the transgression of the Chandeleur Islands and correlate weather and sea surface phenomena with erosion trends over the past 30 years, so that partnering organizations such as the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences (PIES) can better monitor and address the continual change of the island chain.

  13. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Induced Transgression of the Chandeleur Islands for Restoration and Wildlife Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Brandie; Reahard, Ross; Billiot, Amanda; Brown, Tevin; Childs, Lauren

    2009-01-01

    The Chandeleur Islands are the first line of defense against tropical storms and hurricanes for coastal Louisiana. They provide habitats for birds species and are a wildlife refuge; however, distressingly, they are eroding and transgressing at an alarming rate. In 1998, Hurricane Georges caused severe damage to the chain, prompting restoration and monitoring efforts by both Federal and State agencies. Since then, storm events have steadily diminished the condition of the islands. Quantification of shoreline erosion, vegetation, and land loss, from 1979 to 2009, was achieved through the analysis of imagery from Landsat 2-4 Multispectral Scanner, Landsat 4 & 5 Thematic Mapper, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer sensors. QuickBird imagery was used to validate the accuracy of these results. In addition, this study presents an application of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data to assist in tracking the transgression of the Chandeleur Islands. The use of near infrared reflectance calculated from MOD09 surface reflectance data from 2000 to 2009 was analyzed using the Time Series Product Tool. The scope of this project includes not only assessments of the tropical cyclonic events during this time period, but also the effects of tides, winds, and cold fronts on the spatial extent of the islands. Partnering organizations, such as the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Research, will utilize those results in an effort to better monitor and address the continual change of the island chain.

  14. Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven; Cammarata, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic

  15. Quantifying the Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclones: Lingering Footprint or Climate Amnesia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Hart, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    One of the great remaining unanswered questions in tropical meteorology is why there are 90 tropical cyclones (TCs) globally, on average, per year as opposed to 10, 1000, or 10000 TCs. In contrast to extratropical cyclones whose annual frequency can be roughly calculated given the large scale characteristics of the mid-latitudes, there is no equivalent theory that even justifies the order of magnitude of TCs that occur globally each year. In spite of this, there appears to be a preferential spacing of approximately 1500-2000 km between TCs during multiple TC episodes in the Eastern North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Western North Pacific possibly suggesting that the number of storms in each basin is limited energetically by the environment. Reconciling these issues is fundamentally rooted in determining the role of TCs within the climate. Building upon previous research (e.g. Sobel and Camargo 2005, Hart et al. 2007), the following study seeks to take a preliminary step in addressing these questions by quantifying the spatiotemporal scales over which TCs and the large scale environment interact. Four-dimensional, storm-relative composites of raw variables, raw anomalies, and normalized anomalies for Western North Pacific TCs are utilized in the analysis presented here. Preliminary results show that the passage of a TC may be initially responsible for exciting a large scale cooling and drying of the atmospheric environment spanning the majority of the composite domain. Within two weeks, these anomalies are found to become localized over the region in which the TC directly passed through and most strongly manifest themselves as a drying of the lower and middle tropospheric environment. The spatial distribution of the moisture and temperature anomalies in the area immediately surrounding the TC track suggests that the suppression of convection potentially due to the underlying sea surface temperature cold wake induced by the TC is the predominant factor in anomaly

  16. The Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclones to Tunable Physical Parameters in Community Atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, F.; Posselt, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    The inability to explicitly resolve the sub-grid scale physical processes (e.g. cloud, precipitation and convection) of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) greatly limits their performance in simulating tropical cyclones (TCs) and predicting their future changes. To address it, this study carried out a total of 92 simulations and investigated the sensitivity of TC simulation to 24 physical parameters that control the deep convection, shallow convection, turbulence, cloud microphysics and cloud macrophysics processes in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The Reed-Jablonowski TC test case is utilized and run at horizontal resolution of 0.5°×0.5° with 30 vertical levels. The sensitivity is assessed by the uncertainty each parameter exerts on simulated TC while perturbing it from its minimum to maximum with other 23 parameters set to their default value. The uncertainty is characterized by changes on simulated TC intensity (measured by absolute maximum wind speed at 100 m above surface), precipitation rate, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud ice water path (IWP), the latter five of which are quantified by their area-weighted value over the tropical cyclone region. Both the relative importance among these 24 physical parameters on TC simulation and the response function describing how they affect the six TC characteristics are quantified. It is found that the simulated TC intensity is most sensitive to the parcel fractional mass entrainment rate in Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme. Decreasing this parameter enables a change from tropical depression to Category-4 storm. In contrast, other 23 physical parameters cause intensity uncertainty within 10 m/s. The precipitation rate, SWCF, LWP and IWP are also found to receive major impact from parameters in ZM deep convection scheme while the LWCF is dominated by parameters both in ZM deep convection and

  17. Concepts on tracking the impact of tropical cyclones through the coastal zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syvitski, J. P.; Hannon, M. T.; Kettner, A. J.; Bachman, S.

    2009-12-01

    WAVEWATCH III™ (Tolman, 2009) models the evolution of wind wave spectra under influence of wind, breaking, nonlinear interactions, bottom interaction (including shoaling and refraction), currents, water level changes and ice concentrations. The NOAA/NCEP data system offers global estimates every 3 hr at 1° x 1.25° for wind speed and direction at 10m asl, wave direction, height, and period. These and other derived parameters are useful in characterizing wave conditions as tropical cyclones approach landfall. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM based precipitation estimates a global 0.25° x 0.25° grid between 50° N-S produced within ≈7 hours of observation time. Estimates are derived from the Passive Microwave Radiometer, Precipitation Radar, and Visible-Infrared Scanner), plus data from: i) SSM/I ii) low-orbit GOES IR and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder, iii) AMSR-E, iv) AMSU-B, and v) rain gauge data run through algorithm 3B-43. Data are served by the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center. Evapotranspiration estimates are from the MODIS ET (MOD16) algorithm developed by Mu et al. (2007), based on the Penman-Monteith equation, modified with satellite information that uses: (1) vapor pressure deficit and minimum air temperature constraints on stomatal conductance; (2) leaf area index as a scalar for estimating canopy conductance; (3) the Enhanced Vegetation Index; and (4) a calculation of soil evaporation. TopoFlow is a spatially distributed hydrologic model able to ingest the TRMM and EV data through a suite of hydrologic processes (e.g. snowmelt, precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, channel and overland flow, shallow subsurface flow, and flow diversions) to evolve in time in response to climatic forcings. Modeled or gauged discharge can then be coupled to sediment flux models to provide factor of 2 estimates of sediment flux (Syvitski et al. 2007, Kettner et al. 2008, Syvitski and Milliman 2007). The MODIS satellite

  18. A Study of Oceans and Atmospheric Interactions Associated with Tropical Cyclone Activity using Earth Observing Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdullah, Warith; Reddy, Remata

    From October 22nd to 30th, 2012 Hurricane Sandy was a huge storm of many abnormalities causing an estimated 50 billion dollars in damage. Tropical storm development states systems’ energy as product of warm sea surface temperatures (SST’s) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). Advances in Earth Observing (EO) technology, remote sensing and proxy remote sensing have allowed for accurate measurements of SST and TCHP information. In this study, we investigated rapid intensification of Sandy through EO applications for precipitable water vapor (PWAT), SST’s and TCHP during the period of October 27th. These data were obtained from NASA and NOAA satellites and NOAA National Buoy data center (NDBC). The Sensible Heat (Qs) fluxes were computed to determine available energy resulting from ocean-atmosphere interface. Buoy 41010, 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral at 0850 UTC measured 22.3 °C atmospheric temperatures and 27 °C SST, an interface of 4.7 °C. Sensible heat equation computed fluxes of 43.7 W/m2 at 982.0 mb central pressure. Sandy formed as late-season storm and near-surface air temperatures averaged > 21 °C according to NOAA/ESRL NCEP/NCAR reanalysis at 1000 mb and GOES 13 (EAST) geostationary water vapor imagery shows approaching cold front during October 27th. Sandy encountered massive dry air intrusion to S, SE and E quadrants of storm while travelling up U.S east coast but experienced no weakening. Cool, dry air intrusion was considered for PWAT investigation from closest sounding station during Oct. 27th 0900 - 2100 UTC at Charleston, SC station 72208. Measured PWAT totaled 42.97 mm, indicating large energy potential supply to the storm. The Gulf Stream was observed using NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) MODIS SST analysis. The results show 5 °C warmer above average than surrounding cooler water, with > 25 °C water extent approximately 400 NM east of Chesapeake Bay and eddies > 26 °C. Results from sensible heat

  19. An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2011-07-01

    The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored. First we examine the TC tracking algorithm to detect and track simulated TCs from model output. The criteria and thresholds used in the tracking algorithm control the simulated TC climatology, making it difficult to objectively assess the model's ability in simulating TC climatology. Existing tracking algorithms used by previous studies are surveyed and it is found that the criteria and thresholds are very diverse. Sensitivity of varying criteria and thresholds in TC tracking algorithm to simulated TC climatology is very high, especially with the intensity and duration thresholds. It is found that the commonly used criteria may not be strict enough to filter out intense extratropical systems and hybrid systems. We propose that a better distinction between TCs and other low-pressure systems can be achieved by adding the Cyclone Phase technique. Two sets of NRCM simulations are presented in this dissertation: One in the hindcasting mode, and the other with forcing from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to project into the future with

  20. Investigation into impact of tropical cyclones on the ionosphere using GPS sounding and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakova, A. S.; Perevalova, N. P.

    2011-10-01

    Ionospheric response to tropical cyclones (TCs) was estimated experimentally on the example of three powerful cyclones - KATRINA (23-31 August 2005), RITA (18-26 September 2005), and WILMA (15-25 October 2005). These TCs were active near the USA Atlantic coast. Investigation was based on Total Electron Content (TEC) data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. We studied the spatial-temporal dynamics of wave TEC disturbances over two periods of ranges (02-20 min and 20-60 min). To select the ionospheric disturbances which were most likely to be associated with the cyclones, maps of TEC disturbances were compared with those of meteorological parameters.

  1. AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

  2. Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the Simulation of Tropical Storms in an Idealized Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; Williamson, D.; Olson, J. G.

    2011-12-01

    High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of AGCM runs with idealized "aquaplanet-steady-state" boundary conditions and a fixed storm tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more tropical storms, primarily due to the simulated higher vorticity. High resolution simulations produce storms with lower depressions, stronger precipitation intensities, and more detailed storm structures. They also produce more storm systems at the lower latitudes, with the quite localized storm trajectories.

  3. The Relation Between Dry Vortex Merger and Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Atlantic Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Shu-Hua; Liu, Yi-Chin

    2014-10-27

    A strong, convective African tropical disturbance has a greater chance to develop into a Tropical 23 Depression (TD) if it merges with a shallow, dry vortex (D-vortex) from the north of the African 24 easterly jet (AEJ) after leaving the western coast. Using 11-year reanalysis data we found that the 25 western tip of a vortex strip at northwestern Africa can serve as dry vortices for the D-vortex 26 merger if it shifts southward. Another source of D-vortices is the westward propagating lows 27 along the southern edge of the Saharan air. The D-vortex merger process occurred for 63.5% of 28 tropical cyclones (TCs) or developing systems over the main development region of the Atlantic 29 Ocean, while it occurred for 54% of non-developing systems. TC genesis could be largely 30 controlled by the large-scale environment, but the differences in characteristics of vortices 31 associated with the D-vortex merger between developing and non-developing systems could 32 potentially help determine their destinies; in general, developing systems were dominated by a 33 more intense and moist south vortex, while non-developing systems were dominated by a north 34 vortex which was more intense, drier, and larger in size. Analysis also shows that 74% of intense 35 developing systems were involved with the D-vortex merger process. More attention needs to be 36 paid to the D-vortex merger and the characteristics of those vortices as they can play significant 37 roles or have a strong indication in Atlantic TC genesis.

  4. The importance of low-deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tory, K. J.; Dare, R. A.; Davidson, N. E.; McBride, J. L.; Chand, S. S.

    2012-07-01

    Studies of tropical cyclone (TC) formation from tropical waves have shown that TC formation requires a wave-relative quasi-closed circulation: the "marsupial pouch" concept. This results in a layerwise nearly contained region of atmosphere in which the modification of moisture, temperature and vorticity profiles by convective and boundary layer processes occurs undisturbed. The pouch concept is further developed in this paper. TCs develop near the centre of the pouch where the flow is in near solid body rotation. A reference-frame independent parameter is introduced that effectively measures the level of solid-body rotation in the lower troposphere. The parameter is the product of a normalized Okubo-Weiss parameter and absolute vorticity (OWZ). Using 20 yr of ERA-interim reanalysis data and the IBTrACS global TC database, it is shown 95% of TCs including, but not limited to, those forming in tropical waves are associated with enhanced levels of OWZ on both the 850 and 500 hPa pressure levels at the time of TC declaration, while 90% show enhanced OWZ for at least 24 h prior to declaration. This result prompts the question of whether the pouch concept extends beyond wave-type formation to all TC formations world-wide. Combining the OWZ with a low vertical shear requirement and lower troposphere relative humidity thresholds, an imminent genesis parameter is defined. The parameter includes only relatively large-scale fluid properties that are resolved by coarse grid model data (>150 km), which means it can be used as a TC detector for climate model applications. It is also useful as a cyclogenesis diagnostic in higher resolution models such as real-time global forecast models.

  5. The importance of low-deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tory, K. J.; Dare, R. A.; Davidson, N. E.; McBride, J. L.; Chand, S. S.

    2013-02-01

    Studies of tropical cyclone (TC) formation from tropical waves have shown that TC formation requires a wave-relative quasi-closed circulation: the "marsupial pouch" concept. This results in a layerwise nearly contained region of atmosphere in which the modification of moisture, temperature and vorticity profiles by convective and boundary layer processes occurs undisturbed. The pouch concept is further developed in this paper. TCs develop near the centre of the pouch where the flow is in near solid body rotation. A reference-frame independent parameter is introduced that effectively measures the level of solid-body rotation in the lower troposphere. The parameter is the product of a normalized Okubo-Weiss parameter and absolute vorticity (OWZ). Using 20 yr of ERA-interim reanalysis data and the IBTrACS global TC database, it is shown 95% of TCs including, but not limited to, those forming in tropical waves are associated with enhanced levels of OWZ on both the 850 and 500 hPa pressure levels at the time of TC declaration, while 90% show enhanced OWZ for at least 24 h prior to declaration. This result prompts the question of whether the pouch concept extends beyond wave-type formation to all TC formations world-wide. Combining the OWZ with a low vertical shear requirement and lower troposphere relative humidity thresholds, an imminent genesis parameter is defined. The parameter includes only relatively large-scale fluid properties that are res