Science.gov

Sample records for impact assessment models

  1. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  2. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  3. An airport community noise-impact assessment model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deloach, R.

    1980-01-01

    A computer model was developed to assess the noise impact of an airport on the community which it serves. Assessments are made using the Fractional Impact Method by which a single number describes the community aircraft noise environment in terms of exposed population and multiple event noise level. The model is comprised of three elements: a conventional noise footprint model, a site specific population distribution model, and a dose response transfer function. The footprint model provides the noise distribution for a given aircraft operating scenario. This is combined with the site specific population distribution obtained from a national census data base to yield the number of residents exposed to a given level of noise. The dose response relationship relates noise exposure levels to the percentage of individuals highly annoyed by those levels.

  4. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  5. Ecohydrological modeling for large-scale environmental impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Abouali, Mohammad; Herman, Matthew R; Esfahanian, Elaheh; Hamaamin, Yaseen A; Zhang, Zhen

    2016-02-01

    Ecohydrological models are frequently used to assess the biological integrity of unsampled streams. These models vary in complexity and scale, and their utility depends on their final application. Tradeoffs are usually made in model scale, where large-scale models are useful for determining broad impacts of human activities on biological conditions, and regional-scale (e.g. watershed or ecoregion) models provide stakeholders greater detail at the individual stream reach level. Given these tradeoffs, the objective of this study was to develop large-scale stream health models with reach level accuracy similar to regional-scale models thereby allowing for impacts assessments and improved decision-making capabilities. To accomplish this, four measures of biological integrity (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT), Family Index of Biotic Integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), and fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI)) were modeled based on four thermal classes (cold, cold-transitional, cool, and warm) of streams that broadly dictate the distribution of aquatic biota in Michigan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow and water quality in seven watersheds and the Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate 171 ecologically relevant flow regime variables. Unique variables were selected for each thermal class using a Bayesian variable selection method. The variables were then used in development of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models of EPT, FIBI, HBI, and IBI. ANFIS model accuracy improved when accounting for stream thermal class rather than developing a global model. PMID:26595397

  6. Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

    2014-12-01

    During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

  7. Coupled Dynamic Modeling to Assess Human Impact on Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, I. N.; Tsai, Y.; Turnbull, S.; Bomblies, A.; Zia, A.

    2014-12-01

    Humans are intrinsic to the hydrologic system, both as agents of change and as beneficiaries of ecosystem services. This connection has been underappreciated in hydrology. We present a modeling linkage framework of an agent-based land use change model with a physical-based watershed model. The coupled model framework presented constitutes part of an integrated assessment model that is being developed to study human-ecosystem interaction in Missisquoi Bay, spanning Vermont and Québec, which is experiencing high concentrations of nutrients from the Missisquoi River watershed. The integrated assessment approach proposed is comprised of linking two simulation models: the Interactive Land-Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM) and a physically based process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The ILUTABM treats both landscape and landowners as agents and simulates annual land-use patterns resulting from landowners annual land-use decisions and Best Management Practices (BMPs) adaptations to landowners utilities, land productivity and perceived impacts of floods. The Missisquoi River at Swanton watershed RHESSys model (drainage area of 2,200 km2) driven by climate data was first calibrated to daily streamflows and water quality sensor data at the watershed outlet. Simulated land-use patterns were then processed to drive the calibrated RHESSys model to obtain streamflow nutrient loading realizations. Nutrients loading realizations are then examined and routed back to the ILUTAB model to obtain public polices needed to manage the Missisquoi watershed as well as the Lake Champlain in general. We infer that the applicability of this approach can be generalized to other similar watersheds. Index Terms: 0402: Agricultural systems; 1800: Hydrology; 1803: Anthropogenic effects; 1834 Human impacts; 6344: System operation and management; 6334: Regional Planning

  8. Watershed Model Parameterization for Assessing Impacts due to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yactayo, G. A.; Bhatt, G.

    2014-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay (CB) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program drives water quality policy and management in parts of six states — Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia — along with the District of Columbia to achieve water quality standards in the Bay through reductions in nutrient and sediment pollution. The HSPF Watershed Model (WSM) is used as an accounting tool in the development of the TMDL to track progress and guide implementations of best management practices. Published research has shown that precipitation has increased in the US during 20th century by about ten percent, and half of the increase is due to changes in frequency and intensity in the upper tenth percentile of the distribution. Projections from global climate models suggest that these trends are anticipated to continue over the next century. Our analysis of climate data over the last three decades show similar trends in observed precipitation in the CB Watershed. The impact of climate change on the CB TMDL will be examined in a 2017 assessment of progress in the State and Federal partnership of the Chesapeake Bay Program. This is consistent with the CB Executive Order of May 12, 2009 mandates assessment of the impacts of climate change on the CB TMDL. The WSM has a simulation period of more than 3 decades from 1985 to 2011. Over the simulation period precipitation intensity, temperatures, and CO2 levels are increasing. A study conducted by Najjar et al. (2010) that included regional climate projections suggests that pollutant loads in the CB region will increase over the next century. Butcher et al. (2014) demonstrated that a watershed model parameter needs to be adjusted to compensate for the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on plant transpiration in climate projection applications. This raises the question of whether parameters within a watershed model calibrated using historical climate data are sufficient for assessing hydrologic and water

  9. Assessing Climate Impacts on Air Pollution from Models and Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, T.; Plachinski, S. D.; Morton, J. L.; Spak, S.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that large-scale patterns in temperature, humidity, solar radiation and atmospheric circulation affect formation and transport of atmospheric constituents. These relationships have supported a growing body of work projecting changes in ozone (O3), and to a lesser extent aerosols, as a function of changing climate. Typically, global and regional chemical transport models are used to quantify climate impacts on air pollution, but the ability of these models to assess weather-dependent chemical processes has not been thoroughly evaluated. Quantifying model sensitivity to climate poses the additional challenge of isolating the local to synoptic scale effects of meteorological conditions on chemistry and transport from concurrent trends in emissions, hemispheric background concentrations, and land cover change. Understanding how well models capture historic climate-chemistry relationships is essential in projecting future climate impacts, in that it allows for better evaluation of model skill and improved understanding of climate-chemistry relationships. We compare the sensitivity of chemistry-climate relationships, as simulated by the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, with observed historical response characteristics from EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring data. We present results for O3, sulfate and nitrate aerosols, and ambient mercury concentrations. Despite the fact that CMAQ over-predicts daily maximum 8-hour ground-level O3 concentrations relative to AQS data, the model does an excellent job at simulating the response of O3 to daily maximum temperature. In both model and observations, we find that higher temperatures produce higher O3 across most of the U.S., as expected in summertime conditions. However, distinct regions appear in both datasets where temperature and O3 are anti-correlated - for example, over the Upper Midwestern U.S. states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in July 2002. Characterizing uncertainties

  10. A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Cucurachi, S; Borgonovo, E; Heijungs, R

    2016-02-01

    The life cycle assessment (LCA) framework has established itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impact of products. Several works have established the need of integrating the LCA and risk analysis methodologies, due to the several common aspects. One of the ways to reach such integration is through guaranteeing that uncertainties in LCA modeling are carefully treated. It has been claimed that more attention should be paid to quantifying the uncertainties present in the various phases of LCA. Though the topic has been attracting increasing attention of practitioners and experts in LCA, there is still a lack of understanding and a limited use of the available statistical tools. In this work, we introduce a protocol to conduct global sensitivity analysis in LCA. The article focuses on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and particularly on the relevance of global techniques for the development of trustable impact assessment models. We use a novel characterization model developed for the quantification of the impacts of noise on humans as a test case. We show that global SA is fundamental to guarantee that the modeler has a complete understanding of: (i) the structure of the model and (ii) the importance of uncertain model inputs and the interaction among them. PMID:26595377

  11. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  12. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  13. Using Case Studies to Assess the Impact of Modeling Workshops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saul, Jeff; O'Brien, G.; Kramer, L.

    2006-12-01

    The Center for High Energy Physics Research, Education, and Outreach (CHEPREO) has been running Hestenes-style Physics Modeling workshops for High School math and science teachers for the past four summers. Workshop assessment and evaluation found participants substantially improve teacher content knowledge as measured in both pre/post and post only nationally-normed tests such as FCI, TUG-K, and MBT. This year we are extending our assessment to see how teachers are using what they learn in the workshop(s) in their classrooms. This study uses both standard pre/post assessments and classroom observations. The classroom observations use a protocol similar to RTOP. In this paper, we will report on preliminary results from case studies of three physics teachers who attended their first modeling workshop in Summer 2006. Each of these three teachers will be observed during multiple site visits.

  14. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  15. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  16. Assessing the IRIS Professional Development Model: Impact Beyond the Workshops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubenthal, M.; Braile, L. W.; Taber, J. J.

    2003-12-01

    The IRIS Education and Outreach (E&O) Program has developed a highly effective, one-day professional development experience for formal educators. Leveraging the expertise of its consortium, IRIS delivers content including: plate tectonics, propagation of seismic waves, seismographs, Earth's interior structure. At the core of the IRIS professional development model is the philosophy that changes in teacher behavior can be affected by increasing teacher comfort in the classroom. Science and research organizations such as IRIS are able to increase teachers' comfort in the classroom by providing professional development which: increases an educator's knowledge of scientific content, provides educators with a variety of high-quality, scientifically accurate activities to deliver content to students, and provides educators with experiences involving both the content and the educational activities as the primary means of knowledge transfer. As reflected in a 2002-2003 academic year assessment program, this model has proven to be effective at reaching beyond participants and extending into the educators' classrooms. 76% of respondents report increasing the amount of time they spend teaching seismology or related topics in their classroom as a result of participating in IRIS professional development experience. This increase can be directly attributed to the workshop as 90% of participants report using at least one activity modeled during the workshop upon returning to their classrooms. The reported mean activity usage by teachers upon was 4.5 activities per teacher. Since the inception of the professional development model in 1999, IRIS E&O has been committed to evaluation. Data derived from assessment is utilized as a key decision making tool, driving a continuous improvement process. As a result, both the model and the assessment methods have become increasingly refined and sophisticated. The alignment of the professional development model within the IRIS E&O Program

  17. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    PubMed

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. PMID:27461457

  18. Interfacing air pathway models with other media models for impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, R.L.

    1980-10-01

    The assessment of the impacts/effects of a coal conversion industry on human health, ecological systems, property and aesthetics requires knowledge about effluent and fugitive emissions, dispersion of pollutants in abiotic media, chemical and physical transformations of pollutants during transport, and pollutant fate passing through biotic pathways. Some of the environmental impacts that result from coal conversion facility effluents are subtle, acute, subacute or chronic effects in humans and other ecosystem members, acute or chronic damage of materials and property, odors, impaired atmospheric visibility, and impacts on local, regional and global weather and climate. This great variety of impacts and effects places great demands on the abiotic and biotic numerical simulators (modelers) in terms of time and space scales, transformation rates, and system structure. This paper primarily addresses the demands placed on the atmospheric analyst. The paper considers the important air pathway processes, the interfacing of air pathway models with other media models, and the classes of air pathway models currently available. In addition, a strong plea is made for interaction and communication between all modeling groups to promote efficient construction of intermedia models that truly interface across pathway boundaries.

  19. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    PubMed

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. PMID:24096039

  20. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  1. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  2. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  3. A simplified model for the assessment of the impact probability of fragments.

    PubMed

    Gubinelli, Gianfilippo; Zanelli, Severino; Cozzani, Valerio

    2004-12-31

    A model was developed for the assessment of fragment impact probability on a target vessel, following the collapse and fragmentation of a primary vessel due to internal pressure. The model provides the probability of impact of a fragment with defined shape, mass and initial velocity on a target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point. The model is based on the ballistic analysis of the fragment trajectory and on the determination of impact probabilities by the analysis of initial direction of fragment flight. The model was validated using available literature data. PMID:15601611

  4. Impact assessment of abiotic resources in LCA: quantitative comparison of selected characterization models.

    PubMed

    Rørbech, Jakob T; Vadenbo, Carl; Hellweg, Stefanie; Astrup, Thomas F

    2014-10-01

    Resources have received significant attention in recent years resulting in development of a wide range of resource depletion indicators within life cycle assessment (LCA). Understanding the differences in assessment principles used to derive these indicators and the effects on the impact assessment results is critical for indicator selection and interpretation of the results. Eleven resource depletion methods were evaluated quantitatively with respect to resource coverage, characterization factors (CF), impact contributions from individual resources, and total impact scores. We included 2247 individual market inventory data sets covering a wide range of societal activities (ecoinvent database v3.0). Log-linear regression analysis was carried out for all pairwise combinations of the 11 methods for identification of correlations in CFs (resources) and total impacts (inventory data sets) between methods. Significant differences in resource coverage were observed (9-73 resources) revealing a trade-off between resource coverage and model complexity. High correlation in CFs between methods did not necessarily manifest in high correlation in total impacts. This indicates that also resource coverage may be critical for impact assessment results. Although no consistent correlations between methods applying similar assessment models could be observed, all methods showed relatively high correlation regarding the assessment of energy resources. Finally, we classify the existing methods into three groups, according to method focus and modeling approach, to aid method selection within LCA. PMID:25208267

  5. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    PubMed

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss. PMID:25584628

  6. Asteroid Impact Mission (aim) & Deflection Assessment: AN Opportunity to Understand Impact Dynamics and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Fontaine, M.; Corral Van Damme, C.

    2012-09-01

    ESA's Future Preparation and Strategic Studies Office has carried out the Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) study with the objective of defining an affordable and fully independent mission element that ESA could contribute to an Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment campaign (AIDA), a joint effort of ESA, JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR. The mission design foresees two independent spacecraft, one impactor (DART) and one rendezvous probe (AIM). The target of this mission is the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos (1996 GT): one spacecraft, DART, would impact the secondary of the Didymos binary system while AIM would observe and measure any the change in the relative orbit. For this joint project, the timing of the experiment is set (maximum proximity of the target to Earth allowing for ground-based characterisation of the experiment) but the spacecraft are still able to pursue their missions fully independently. This paper describes in particular the AIM rendezvous mission concept.

  7. ASSESSING IMPACT OF SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIATIONS USING CLIGEN AND WEPP MODELS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Physically based response models are useful tools for assessing impacts of climate variations on hydrological and plant growth processes. Most response models require daily weather, which is often synthesized using stochastic daily weather generators. The objectives were to evaluate the ability of...

  8. Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rouse, William B.; Hammer, John M.

    1990-01-01

    The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifying limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility.

  9. Research highlights: modelling to assess climate change impacts and promote development.

    PubMed

    Luxem, Katja E; Lin, Vivian S

    2015-08-01

    We highlight four recent articles on biophysical modelling for the Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta system. These publications are part of a themed collection in Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts and contribute to a larger body of collaborative work that aims to assess the impacts of changing climate, policy, and development efforts on vulnerable populations in the GBM delta. PMID:26186156

  10. Calibration of a Hydrologic Model Considering Input Uncertainty in Assessing Climate Change Impact on Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolisetti, T.; Datta, A. R.; Balachandar, R.

    2009-05-01

    Studies on impact assessment and the corresponding uncertainties in hydrologic regime predictions is of paramount in developing water resources management plans under climate change scenarios,. The variability in hydrologic model parameters is one of the major sources of uncertainties associated with climate change impact on streamflow. Uncertainty in hydrologic model parameters may arise from the choice of model calibration technique, model calibration period, model structure and response variables. The recent studies show that consideration of uncertainties in input variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration etc.) during calibration of a hydrologic model has resulted in decrease in prediction uncertainty. The present study has examined the significance of input uncertainty in hydrologic model calibration for climate change impact studies. A physically distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is calibrated considering uncertainties in (i) model parameters only, and (ii) both model parameters and precipitation input. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters. The observed daily precipitation and streamflow data of the Canard River watershed of Essex region, Ontario, Canada are used as input and output variables, respectively, during calibration. The parameter sets of the 100 most skillful hydrologic model simulations obtained from each calibration technique are used for predicting streamflow by 2070s under climate change conditions. In each run, the climate predictions of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) for SRES scenario A2 are used as input to the hydrologic model for streamflow prediction. The paper presents the results of uncertainty in seasonal and annual streamflow prediction. The outcome of the study is expected to contribute to the assessment of uncertainty in climate change impact studies and better management of available

  11. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  12. Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: The state of biological modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Rauscher, H.M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  13. Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS{reg_sign}): Exposure pathway and human health impact assessment models

    SciTech Connect

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J.

    1995-05-01

    The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) provides physics-based models for human health risk assessment for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. MEPAS analyzes pollutant behavior in various media (air, soil, groundwater and surface water) and estimates transport through and between media and exposure and impacts to the environment, to the maximum individual, and to populations. MEPAS includes 25 exposure pathway models, a database with information on more than 650 contaminants, and a sensitivity module that allows for uncertainty analysis. Four major transport pathways are considered in MEPAS: groundwater, overland, surface water, and atmospheric. This report describes the exposure pathway and health impact assessment component of MEPAS, which provides an estimate of health impacts to selected individuals and populations from exposure to pollutants. The exposure pathway analysis starts with pollutant concentration in a transport medium and estimates the average daily dose to exposed individuals from contact with the transport medium or a secondary medium contaminated by the transport medium. The average daily dose is then used to estimate a measure of health impact appropriate to the type of pollutant considered. Discussions of the exposure pathway models include the assumptions and equations used to convert the transport medium concentrations to exposure medium concentrations. The discussion for a given exposure pathway defines the transport pathways leading to the exposure, the special processes considered in determining the pollutant concentration in the exposure medium, and the exposure model used to estimate the average daily dose. Models for the exposure pathway and health impact assessments require definition of several parameters. A summary of the notation used for these parameters is provided.

  14. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  15. Quantitative assessment of biological impact using transcriptomic data and mechanistic network models

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Ty M.; Sewer, Alain; Martin, Florian; Belcastro, Vincenzo; Frushour, Brian P.; Gebel, Stephan; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K.; Talikka, Marja; Vasilyev, Dmitry M.; Westra, Jurjen W.; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2013-11-01

    Exposure to biologically active substances such as therapeutic drugs or environmental toxicants can impact biological systems at various levels, affecting individual molecules, signaling pathways, and overall cellular processes. The ability to derive mechanistic insights from the resulting system responses requires the integration of experimental measures with a priori knowledge about the system and the interacting molecules therein. We developed a novel systems biology-based methodology that leverages mechanistic network models and transcriptomic data to quantitatively assess the biological impact of exposures to active substances. Hierarchically organized network models were first constructed to provide a coherent framework for investigating the impact of exposures at the molecular, pathway and process levels. We then validated our methodology using novel and previously published experiments. For both in vitro systems with simple exposure and in vivo systems with complex exposures, our methodology was able to recapitulate known biological responses matching expected or measured phenotypes. In addition, the quantitative results were in agreement with experimental endpoint data for many of the mechanistic effects that were assessed, providing further objective confirmation of the approach. We conclude that our methodology evaluates the biological impact of exposures in an objective, systematic, and quantifiable manner, enabling the computation of a systems-wide and pan-mechanistic biological impact measure for a given active substance or mixture. Our results suggest that various fields of human disease research, from drug development to consumer product testing and environmental impact analysis, could benefit from using this methodology. - Highlights: • The impact of biologically active substances is quantified at multiple levels. • The systems-level impact integrates the perturbations of individual networks. • The networks capture the relationships between

  16. INTEGRATING DISPERSION MODELING, RECEPTOR MODELING AND AIR MONITORING TO APPORTION INCINERATOR IMPACTS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    An approach combining air quality measurements, GIS, receptor and dispersion modeling to apportion the impact of incinerator sources to individuals living in surrounding neighborhoods was presented. his technique wall applied to a Health and Clean Air Study investigating the resp...

  17. Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, Malcolm L.; Reed, Mark; Anderson, Eric; Isaji, Tatsusaburo; Swanson, J. Craig; Saila, Saul B.; Lorda, Ernesto; Walker, Henry

    1985-01-01

    An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity. The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.

  18. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  19. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  20. Improved tsunami impact assessments: validation, comparison and the integration of hydrodynamic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarbotton, C.; Walters, R. A.; Goff, J. R.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Turner, I. L.

    2012-12-01

    As communities become increasingly aware of the risks posed by tsunamis, it is important to develop methods for predicting the damage they can cause to the built environment. This will provide the information needed to make informed decisions regarding land-use, building codes, and evacuation. At present, a number of tsunami-building vulnerability assessment models are available, however, the relative infrequency and destructive nature of tsunamis has long made it difficult to obtain the data necessary to adequately validate and compare them. Further complicating matters is that the inundation of a tsunami in the built environment is very difficult model, as is the response of a building to the hydraulic forces that a tsunami generates. Variations in building design and condition will significantly affect a building's susceptibility to damage. Likewise, factors affecting the flow conditions at a building (i.e. surrounding structures and topography), will greatly affect its exposure. This presents significant challenges for practitioners, as they are often left in the dark on how to use hazard modeling and vulnerability assessment techniques together to conduct the community-scale impact studies required for tsunami planning. This paper presents the results of an in-depth case study of Yuriage, Miyagi Prefecture - a coastal city in Japan that was badly damaged by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The aim of the study was twofold: 1) To test and compare existing tsunami vulnerability assessment models and 2) To more effectively utilize hydrodynamic models in the context of tsunami impact studies. Following the 2011 Tohoku event, an unprecedented quantity of field data, imagery and video emerged. Yuriage in particular, features a comprehensive set of street level Google Street View imagery, available both before and after the event. This has enabled the collection of a large dataset describing the characteristics of the buildings existing before the event as well the

  1. Spatially implemented Bayesian network model to assess environmental impacts of water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark C.

    2014-10-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular method of assessing environmental impacts of water management. However, spatial attributes that influence ecological processes are rarely included in BN models. We demonstrate the benefits of combining two-dimensional hydrodynamic and BN modeling frameworks to explicitly incorporate the spatial variability within a system. The impacts of two diversion scenarios on riparian vegetation recruitment at the Gila River, New Mexico, USA, were evaluated using a coupled modeling framework. We focused on five individual sites in the Upper Gila basin. Our BN model incorporated key ecological drivers based on the "recruitment box" conceptual model, including the timing of seed availability, floodplain inundation, river recession rate, and groundwater depths. Results indicated that recruitment potential decreased by >20% at some locations within each study site, relative to existing conditions. The largest impacts occurring along dynamic fluvial landforms, such as side channels and sand bars. Reductions in recruitment potential varied depending on the diversion scenario. Our unique approach allowed us to evaluate recruitment consequences of water management scenarios at a fine spatial scale, which not only helped differentiate impacts at distinct channel locations but also was useful for informing stakeholders of possible ecological impacts. Our findings also demonstrate that minor changes to river flow may have large ecological implications.

  2. Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

    2005-01-01

    The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

  3. An Integrated Modeling Framework for Assessment of Impacts of Multiple Global Changes on Terrestrial Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wittig, V.; Yang, X.; Jain, A.

    2008-12-01

    Independent changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change directly impact terrestrial productivity. Less well understood are the interactive effects of these globally changing factors on terrestrial productivity and the resultant impact on rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This study uses the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to quantify the impacts of these multiple global changes on terrestrial productivity and further, to project how these changes feedback on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations via respiratory carbon fluxes. The ISAM is modified to include a mechanistic model of leaf photosynthesis including the sensitivity of leaf photosynthesis to tropospheric ozone. Leaf-level photosynthetic carbon gain is scaled to the canopy with a sun-shade microclimate model to estimate the gross primary productivity of major biomes comprised of representative plant functional types. The modified carbon cycle in ISAM is coupled to a detailed model of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle therefore providing the integrated modeling framework required to assess the interactive effects of rising carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change on global productivity.

  4. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

    PubMed

    Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

    2012-09-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage. PMID:22552921

  5. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling

    PubMed Central

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2012-01-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were  collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage. PMID:22552921

  6. Stochastic modeling of triple-frequency BeiDou signals: estimation, assessment and impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bofeng

    2016-03-01

    Stochastic models are important in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) estimation problems. One can achieve reliable ambiguity resolution and precise positioning only by use of a suitable stochastic model. The BeiDou system has received increased research focus, but based only on empirical stochastic models from the knowledge of GPS. In this paper, we will systematically study the estimation, assessment and impacts of a triple-frequency BeiDou stochastic model. In our estimation problem, a single-difference, geometry-free functional model is used to extract pure random noise. A very sophisticated structure of unknown variance matrix is designed to allow the estimation of satellite-specific variances, cross correlations between two arbitrary frequencies, as well as the time correlations for phase and code observations per frequency. In assessing the stochastic models, six data sets with four brands of BeiDou receivers on short and zero-length baselines are processed, and the results are compared. In impact analysis of stochastic model, the performance of integer ambiguity resolution and positioning are numerically demonstrated using a realistic stochastic model. The results from ultrashort (shorter than 10 m) and zero-length baselines indicate that BeiDou stochastic models are affected by both observation and receiver brands. The observation variances have been modeled by an elevation-dependent function, but the modeling errors for geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites are larger than for inclined geosynchronous satellite orbit (IGSO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. The stochastic model is governed by both the internal errors of the receiver and external errors at the site. Different receivers have different capabilities for resisting external errors. A realistic stochastic model is very important for achieving ambiguity resolution with a high success rate and small false alarm and for determining realistic variances for position estimates. To

  7. Stochastic modeling of triple-frequency BeiDou signals: estimation, assessment and impact analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bofeng

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic models are important in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) estimation problems. One can achieve reliable ambiguity resolution and precise positioning only by use of a suitable stochastic model. The BeiDou system has received increased research focus, but based only on empirical stochastic models from the knowledge of GPS. In this paper, we will systematically study the estimation, assessment and impacts of a triple-frequency BeiDou stochastic model. In our estimation problem, a single-difference, geometry-free functional model is used to extract pure random noise. A very sophisticated structure of unknown variance matrix is designed to allow the estimation of satellite-specific variances, cross correlations between two arbitrary frequencies, as well as the time correlations for phase and code observations per frequency. In assessing the stochastic models, six data sets with four brands of BeiDou receivers on short and zero-length baselines are processed, and the results are compared. In impact analysis of stochastic model, the performance of integer ambiguity resolution and positioning are numerically demonstrated using a realistic stochastic model. The results from ultrashort (shorter than 10 m) and zero-length baselines indicate that BeiDou stochastic models are affected by both observation and receiver brands. The observation variances have been modeled by an elevation-dependent function, but the modeling errors for geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites are larger than for inclined geosynchronous satellite orbit (IGSO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. The stochastic model is governed by both the internal errors of the receiver and external errors at the site. Different receivers have different capabilities for resisting external errors. A realistic stochastic model is very important for achieving ambiguity resolution with a high success rate and small false alarm and for determining realistic variances for position estimates. To

  8. Coupling urban event-based and catchment continuous modelling for combined sewer overflow river impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrés-Doménech, I.; Múnera, J. C.; Francés, F.; Marco, J. B.

    2010-05-01

    Since the Water Framework Directive (WFD) was passed in year 2000, the protection of water bodies in the EU must be understood in a completely different way. Regarding to combined sewer overflows (CSOs) from urban drainage networks, the WFD implies that CSOs cannot be accepted because of their intrinsic features, but must be assessed for their impact on the receiving water bodies in agreement with specific environmental aims. Consequently, both, the urban system and the receiving one must be jointly analysed to evaluate their impact. In this context, a coupled scheme is presented in this paper to assess the CSOs impact in a river system in Torrelavega (Spain). First, an urban model is developed to characterise statistically the CSOs frequency, volume and duration. The main feature of this first model is the fact of being event-based: the system is modelled with some built synthetic storms which cover adequately the probability range of the main rainfall descriptors, i.e., rainfall event volume and peak intensity. Thus, CSOs are characterised in terms of their occurrence probability. Secondly, a continuous and distributed basin model is built to assess the river response at different points in the river network. This model was calibrated initially on a daily scale and downscaled later to the hourly scale. The main objective of this second element of the scheme is to provide the most likely state of the receiving river when a CSO occurs. By combining results of both models, CSO and river flows are homogeneously characterised from a statistical point of view. Finally, results from both models were coupled to estimate the final concentration of some analysed pollutants (the biochemical oxygen demand, BOD, and the total ammonium, NH4+), in the river just after the spills.

  9. Coupling urban event-based and catchment continuous modelling for combined sewer overflow river impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrés-Doménech, I.; Múnera, J. C.; Francés, F.; Marco, J. B.

    2010-10-01

    Since Water Framework Directive (WFD) was passed in year 2000, the conservation of water bodies in the EU must be understood in a completely different way. Regarding to combined sewer overflows (CSOs) from urban drainage networks, the WFD implies that we cannot accept CSOs because of their intrinsic features, but they must be assessed for their impact on the receiving water bodies in agreement with specific environmental aims. Consequently, both, urban system and the receiving water body must be jointly analysed to evaluate the environmental impact generated on the latter. In this context, a coupled scheme is presented in this paper to assess the CSOs impact on a river system in Torrelavega (Spain). First, a urban model is developed to statistically characterise the CSOs frequency, volume and duration. The main feature of this first model is the fact of being event-based: the system is modelled with some built synthetic storms which cover adequately the probability range of the main rainfall descriptors, i.e., rainfall event volume and peak intensity. Thus, CSOs are characterised in terms of their occurrence probability. Secondly, a continuous and distributed basin model is built to assess river response at different points in the river network. This model was calibrated initially on a daily scale and downscaled later to hourly scale. The main objective of this second element of the scheme is to provide the most likely state of the receiving river when a CSO occurs. By combining results of both models, CSO and river flows are homogeneously characterised from a statistical point of view. Finally, results from both models were coupled to estimate the final concentration of some analysed pollutants (biochemical oxygen demand, BOD, and total ammonium, NH4+), within the river just after the spills.

  10. Preliminary assessment of the impact of conceptual model uncertainty on site performance

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, D.P.; Pohl, P.I.; Olague, N.E.; Knowlton, R.G.; Updegraff, C.D.

    1990-10-01

    The US Department of Energy is responsible for the design, construction, operation, and decommission of a site for the deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). This involves site characterization and the use of performance assessment to demonstrate compliance with regulations for HLW disposal from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The EPA standard states that a performance assessment should consider the associated uncertainties involved in estimating cumulative release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. To date, the majority of the efforts in uncertainty analysis have been directed toward data and parameter uncertainty, whereas little effort has been made to treat model uncertainty. Model uncertainty includes conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty, and any uncertainties derived from implementing the mathematical model in a computer code. Currently there is no systematic approach that is designed to address the uncertainty in conceptual models. The purpose of this investigation is to take a first step at addressing conceptual model uncertainty. This will be accomplished by assessing the relative impact of alternative conceptual models on the integrated release of radionuclides to the accessible environment for an HLW repository site located in unsaturated, fractured tuff. 4 refs., 2 figs.

  11. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status.

    PubMed

    Seim, Gretchen L; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P; Young, Sera L

    2016-01-01

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

  12. A Novel in Vivo Model for Assessing the Impact of Geophagic Earth on Iron Status

    PubMed Central

    Seim, Gretchen L.; Tako, Elad; Ahn, Cedric; Glahn, Raymond P.; Young, Sera L.

    2016-01-01

    The causes and consequences of geophagy, the craving and consumption of earth, remain enigmatic, despite its recognition as a behavior with public health implications. Iron deficiency has been proposed as both a cause and consequence of geophagy, but methodological limitations have precluded a decisive investigation into this relationship. Here we present a novel in vivo model for assessing the impact of geophagic earth on iron status: Gallus gallus (broiler chicken). For four weeks, animals were gavaged daily with varying dosages of geophagic material or pure clay mineral. Differences in haemoglobin (Hb) across treatment groups were assessed weekly and differences in liver ferritin, liver iron, and gene expression of the iron transporters divalent metal transporter 1 (DMT1), duodenal cytochrome B (DcytB) and ferroportin were assessed at the end of the study. Minimal impact on iron status indicators was observed in all non-control groups, suggesting dosing of geophagic materials may need refining in future studies. However, this model shows clear advantages over prior methods used both in vitro and in humans, and represents an important step in explaining the public health impact of geophagy on iron status. PMID:27304966

  13. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  14. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  15. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  16. Assessment of the Impact of Spatial Data on the Results of Air Pollution Dispersion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oleniacz, Robert; Rzeszutek, Mateusz

    2014-12-01

    Advanced dispersion models, taking into account information on the relief and land cover, as well as temporal and spatial variability of meteorological conditions, are beginning to play an increasingly important role in the assessment of the impact on the air quality. There are numerous spatial databases which can be used in this type of a calculation process, however, there is no answer to the question of how the use of appropriate data set of terrain characteristics affects the results of the distribution of air pollutant concentrations at the surface of the ground. This paper presents two different sets of spatial data of the relief and land cover. Then, their impact on the results of modeling the propagation of pollutants in the ambient air was characterized, using the meteorological processor CALMET and the dispersion model CALPUFF. The obtained results of concentrations in the adopted calculation area were compared on the basis of statistical indicators used to assess pollution dispersion models contained in the statistical package BOOT Statistical Model Evaluation Software Package Version 2.0. The obtained results of calculations of the maximum 1-hour concentrations, the maximum 24-hour mean concentrations and annual mean concentrations for the prepared computational grids with a resolution of 1×1 km were analyzed.

  17. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  18. Odour impact assessment by means of dynamic olfactometry, dispersion modelling and social participation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sironi, Selena; Capelli, Laura; Céntola, Paolo; Del Rosso, Renato; Pierucci, Sauro

    2010-01-01

    This work discusses how it is possible to assess odour impact in presence of multiple similar sources by illustrating a case study. The study was conducted on an area of northern Italy comprising three small municipalities where four rendering plants are located near to each other. Based on the emission data resulting from olfactometric surveys conducted in different periods of the year the overall odour emission rate emitted by each plant were evaluated, showing that the major contributor to the odour impact on the territory was plant 2. These data were linked with meteorological and orographical data in order to evaluate odour dispersion with a model (Calpuff). The results of the odour dispersion modelling confirmed the outcomes of the olfactometric survey and they were further validated through a "questioning" survey, conducted with the aim of involving the population by means of questionnaires for reporting the perceived odour episodes, which showed a good correspondence (86.5%) between odour perceptions and simulated odour immissions.

  19. A statistical concept to assess the uncertainty in Bayesian model weights and its impact on model ranking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-09-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) ranks the plausibility of alternative conceptual models according to Bayes' theorem. A prior belief about each model's adequacy is updated to a posterior model probability based on the skill to reproduce observed data and on the principle of parsimony. The posterior model probabilities are then used as model weights for model ranking, selection, or averaging. Despite the statistically rigorous BMA procedure, model weights can become uncertain quantities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set or due to uncertainty in model input. Uncertain weights may in turn compromise the reliability of BMA results. We present a new statistical concept to investigate this weighting uncertainty, and thus, to assess the significance of model weights and the confidence in model ranking. Our concept is to resample the uncertain input or output data and then to analyze the induced variability in model weights. In the special case of weighting uncertainty due to measurement noise in the calibration data set, we interpret statistics of Bayesian model evidence to assess the distance of a model's performance from the theoretical upper limit. To illustrate our suggested approach, we investigate the reliability of soil-plant model selection following up on a study by Wöhling et al. (2015). Results show that the BMA routine should be equipped with our suggested upgrade to (1) reveal the significant but otherwise undetected impact of measurement noise on model ranking results and (2) to decide whether the considered set of models should be extended with better performing alternatives.

  20. Assessing the impact of policy changes in the Icelandic cod fishery using a hybrid simulation model.

    PubMed

    Sigurðardóttir, Sigríður; Johansson, Björn; Margeirsson, Sveinn; Viðarsson, Jónas R

    2014-01-01

    Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA) for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities. PMID:24778597

  1. Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Sigurðardóttir, Sigríður; Johansson, Björn; Margeirsson, Sveinn; Viðarsson, Jónas R.

    2014-01-01

    Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA) for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities. PMID:24778597

  2. The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, E. M.; Bates, P. D.; Freer, J. E.; Mason, D. C.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryThe performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however, these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we determine the patterns of uncertainty in an ERS-2 SAR image of flooding on the River Dee, UK and, using LISFLOOD-FP, evaluate how this uncertainty can influence the assessment of flood inundation model performance. The flood outline is intersected with high resolution LiDAR topographic data to extract water levels at the flood margin, and to estimate patterns of uncertainty the gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. We find the residuals between the satellite data points and the reference line to be spatially clustered. A new method of evaluating model performance is developed to test the impact of this spatial dependency on model calibration. This method uses multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation points that have no significant spatial dependency; tested for using Moran's I. LISFLOOD-FP is then calibrated using conventional binary pattern matching and water elevation comparison both with and without spatial dependency. It is shown that model calibration carried out using pattern matching is negatively influenced by spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. Accounting for spatial dependency reduces the estimated modelled error and gives an identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data; it also has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Further, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess how the noisiness in these data affects our understanding of flood risk. This has highlighted the requirement for a probabilistic

  3. Impact-GMI Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2007-03-22

    IMPACT-GMI is an atmospheric chemical transport model designed to run on massively parallel computers. It is designed to model trace pollutants in the atmosphere. It includes models for emission, chemistry and deposition of pollutants. It can be used to assess air quality and its impact on future climate change.

  4. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. PMID:24291626

  5. Model assessing the impact of biomass burning on air quality and photochemistry in Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, W.; Li, G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Yokelson, R. J.; Molina, L. T.

    2010-12-01

    Biomass burning is a major global emission source for trace gases and particulates. Various multi-platform measurements during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA)-2003 and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO)-2006 campaigns suggest significant influences of biomass burning (BB) on air quality in Mexico City during the dry season, and the observations show emissions from BB impose viable yet highly variable impacts on organic aerosols (OA) in and around Mexico City. We have developed emission inventories for forest fires surrounding Mexico City based on measurement-estimated emission factors and MODIS fire counts, and for garbage fires in Mexico City based on in situ-measured emission factors and the population distribution and socioeconomic data. In this study, we will comprehensively assess the impact of biomass burning on the aerosol loading, chemical composition, OA formation and photochemistry in Mexico City using WRF-Chem. Analysis of the model results, in conjunction with concurrent field measurements, will be presented.

  6. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  7. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling

    PubMed Central

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. PMID:24535943

  8. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    PubMed

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. PMID:24535943

  9. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S> ; KramerWhite, Julie A.; KramerWhite, Julie A.; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2007-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  10. Impacts of distorted fishery statistical data on assessments of three surplus production models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yingbin; Zheng, Ji; Wang, Zheng

    2011-03-01

    We evaluated the effect of various error sources in fishery harvest/effort data on the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and corresponding fishing effort ( E MSY) using Monte Carlo simulation analyses. A high coefficient of variation ( CV) of the catch and effort values biased the estimates of MSY and E MSY. Thus, the state of the fisheries resource and its exploitation was overestimated. We compared the effect using three surplus production models, Hilborn-Waters (H-W), Schnute, and Prager models. The estimates generated using the H-W model were significantly affected by the CV. The Schnute model was least affected by errors in the underlying data. The CV of the catch data had a greater impact on the assessment than the CV of the fishing effort. Similarly, the changes in CV had a greater impact on the estimated maximum sustainable yield (MSY) than on the corresponding estimate of fishing effort ( E MSY). We discuss the likely effect of these biases on management efforts and provide suggestions for the improvement of fishery evaluations.

  11. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  12. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change

  13. Assessing human impact on droughts in a tropical Vietnamese catchment using a combined modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Ribbe, Lars; Tran Van, Tra; Viet, Trinh Quoc; Firoz, Abm; Fink, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    Historical drought frequency, drought risk and types are still poorly investigated in tropical regions and particularly in South East Asia. However, evolving drought periods during the dry season severely impact on socio economic factors such as livelihood (irrigated rice production), hydropower generation and urban water supply in such regions as in the VuGiaThuBon river basin (10,350 km²) in Central Vietnam. Besides the increasing frequency of heat waves and prolonged dry periods without rainfall, hydropower development and over-exploitation of water resources due to demographic and socioeconomic development are the main causes for drought-related disasters and subsequent salt water intrusion. Precipitation and runoff time series from 1982 to 2009 were used to assess drought severity and typology before hydropower development started in 2010. We applied different rainfall-runoff modelling approaches of increasing complexity (HBV light, J2000 and Mike NAM) as well as meteorological and hydrological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its runoff homologue (SRI). In the scope of the BMBF funded research project "Land use and Climate Change interactions (LUCCi)" (www.lucci-vietnam.info), the impacts of the human-induced hydrological alterations on drought risk were quantified by integrating the distributed physically-based hydrological model J2000 with the reservoir operation tool HEC ResSim and the River basin model Mike Basin to simulate the runoff to the coastal system. The salt water intrusion behavior in the flat coastal area was represented by the hydrodynamic Mike 11 model relating low flow thresholds to salt intrusion. The different discharge simulations before and after the reservoir construction were compared and evaluated regarding their relevance for the drought severity being dominated either by meteorological dry spells or hydrological alterations. Results show a clear impact of the hydropower reservoir and resulting

  14. Assessing the impact of Amazonia logging with a new ecosystem model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Asner, G. P.; Keller, M.; Berry, J. A.; Bustamante, M. M.

    2006-12-01

    Old-growth Amazonian forests play a fundamental role in the global climate and carbon cycle. Land use in old- growth tropical forests contributes to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and can alter the hydrological cycle, locally, regionally, and globally. Although deforestation, largely for the conversion of land to food crops or pastures, is the major destructive force in tropical forests worldwide (Houghton et al., 2000), other forest disturbances such as the selective logging have also increased in frequency and extent. Selective logging causes widespread collateral damage to remaining trees, sub-canopy vegetation, and soils, with impacts on hydrological processes, erosion, fire, carbon storage, and plant and animal species. In this study, the impact of selective logging on the carbon budget of the Brazil Amazon region is assessed with a new 3-D version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model, which features: (1) an alternative way of estimating absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (APAR) by taking advantage of new high-resolution maps of forest canopy gap fraction; (2) a pulse disturbance module to realistically modify the carbon pools after timber harvest; (3) a regrowth module considering changes in community composition; and (4) a radiative transfer module for charactering the dynamic 3-D light environment above the canopy and within gaps after logging. The model was calibrated and validated with field observations from the Large-scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and its sensitivity was evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of selected logging on regional carbon budget of the Brazilian Amazon were then assessed under different future climate change scenarios. Results from this study quantify the gross and net carbon storage effects of widespread logging practices throughout the Brazilian Amazon.

  15. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change. PMID:23467178

  16. Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: model exploration and application to a fuel price increase.

    PubMed

    Dhondt, Stijn; Kochan, Bruno; Beckx, Carolien; Lefebvre, Wouter; Pirdavani, Ali; Degraeuwe, Bart; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

    2013-01-01

    Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect. We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010-2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890-2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180-880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590-910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120-250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120-290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people. This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make

  17. Assessment of Three Finite Element Approaches for Modeling the Ballistic Impact Failure of Metal Plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansur, Ali; Nganbe, Michel

    2015-03-01

    The ballistic impact was numerically modeled for AISI 450 steel struck by a 17.3 g ogive nose WC-Co projectile using Abaqus/Explicit. The model was validated using experimental results and data for different projectiles and metal targets. The Abaqus ductile-shear, local principal strain to fracture, and absorbed strain energy at failure criteria were investigated. Due to the highly dynamic nature of ballistic impacts, the absorbed strain energy approach posed serious challenges in estimating the effective deformation volume and yielded the largest critical plate thicknesses for through-thickness penetration (failure). In contrast, the principal strain criterion yielded the lowest critical thicknesses and provided the best agreement with experimental ballistic test data with errors between 0 and 30%. This better accuracy was due to early failure definition when the very first mesh at the target back side reached the strain to fracture, which compensated for the overall model overestimation. The ductile-shear criterion yielded intermediate results between those of the two comparative approaches. In contrast to the ductile-shear criterion, the principal strain criterion requires only basic data readily available for practically all materials. Therefore, it is a viable alternative for an initial assessment of the ballistic performance and pre-screening of a large number of new candidate materials as well as for supporting the development of novel armor systems.

  18. Utilizing geographic information systems technology in the Wyoming cumulative hydrologic impact assessment modeling process

    SciTech Connect

    Hamerlinck, J.D.; Oakleaf, J.R.

    1997-12-31

    The coal-permitting process places heavy demands on both permit applicants and regulatory authorities with respect to the management and analysis of hydrologic data. Currently, this correlation is being addressed for the Powder River Basin, Wyoming by the ongoing Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment (CHIA) efforts at the University of Wyoming. One critical component of the CHIA is the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for support, management, manipulation, pre-analysis, and display of data associated with the chosen groundwater and surface water models. This paper will discuss the methodology in using of GIS technology as an integrated tool with the MODFLOW and HEC-1 hydrologic models. Pre-existing GIS links associated with these two models served as a foundation for this effort. However, due to established standards and site specific factors, substantial modifications were performed on existing tools to obtain adequate results. The groundwater-modeling effort required the use of a refined grid in which cell sizes varied based on the relative locations of ongoing mining activities. Surface water modeling was performed in a semi-arid region with very limited topographic relief and predominantly ephemeral stream channels. These were substantial issues that presented challenges for effective GIS/model integration.

  19. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  20. Observational techniques for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in catchment scale flood impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Wilkinson, Mark; Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    river stem and principal tributaries, it is possible to understand in detail how floods develop and propagate, both temporally and spatially. Traditional rainfall-runoff modelling involves the calibration of model parameters to achieve a best fit against an observed flow series, typically at a single location. The modelling approach adopted here is novel in that it directly uses the nested observed information to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of the source locations. Using a combination of local evidence and expert opinion, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed land use management changes and NFM on floods. These studies demonstrate the power of networks of observational instrumentation for constraining hydraulic and hydrologic models for use in prediction.

  1. Comparison of different approaches for odour impact assessment: dispersion modelling (CALPUFF) vs field inspection (CEN/TC 264).

    PubMed

    Dentoni, Licinia; Capelli, Laura; Sironi, Selena; Guillot, Jean-Michel; Rossi, Andrea N

    2013-01-01

    Odour impact assessment has become an important environmental issue. Different approaches can be used in order to evaluate the odour impact on receptors, and therefore to regulate it. Among the different possible regulation approaches, the use of dispersion modelling is suggested or required by several national or regional legislations. The wide diffusion of this approach is probably due to the fact that odour dispersion modelling is relatively cheap and results are easily understandable. Another kind of approach attempts to evaluate the odour impact directly in the field relying on a panel of trained human assessors (field inspection). The growing importance of this odour impact assessment method is proved by the current draft of a European Standard (CEN/TC 264), which defines two different methodologies of field inspection: grid measurement and plume measurement. In this study two different approaches were compared, i.e. odour dispersion modelling and field inspection by plume measurement (with specific adaptation for the studied site), the latter consisting in using a panel of examiners for determining the absence or presence of odour downwind relative to the source, in order to evaluate the plume extent. The comparison was based on application of both methods to the assessment of the odour impact of a plant for the composting of sludge from an Italian food industry. The results show that the odour impacts assessed by the two strategies turned out to be quite comparable, thus indicating that, if opportunely applied, both approaches may be effective and complementary for odour impact assessment purposes. PMID:24185053

  2. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  3. Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

  4. Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model.

    PubMed

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented. PMID:18363053

  5. Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

    2015-12-01

    The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

  6. ASSESSING IMPACT OF INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON WATER RESOURCES AND CROP PRODUCTIVITY USING CLIGEN AND WEPP MODELS.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Physically based hydrological and plant growth models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate variations. Most response models require daily weather, which is often synthesized using stochastic daily weather generators. The objectives were to evaluate the ability of the CLImate GENera...

  7. Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

  8. A systematic impact assessment of GRACE error correlation on data assimilation in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Döll, Petra

    2016-06-01

    Recently, ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have found increasing application for merging hydrological models with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) fields from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Previous studies have disregarded the effect of spatially correlated errors of GRACE TWSA products in their investigations. Here, for the first time, we systematically assess the impact of the GRACE error correlation structure on EnKF data assimilation into a hydrological model, i.e. on estimated compartmental and total water storages and model parameter values. Our investigations include (1) assimilating gridded GRACE-derived TWSA into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model and, simultaneously, calibrating its parameters; (2) introducing GRACE observations on different spatial scales; (3) modelling observation errors as either spatially white or correlated in the assimilation procedure, and (4) replacing the standard EnKF algorithm by the square root analysis scheme or, alternatively, the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman filter. Results of a synthetic experiment designed for the Mississippi River Basin indicate that the hydrological parameters are sensitive to TWSA assimilation if spatial resolution of the observation data is sufficiently high. We find a significant influence of spatial error correlation on the adjusted water states and model parameters for all implemented filter variants, in particular for subbasins with a large discrepancy between observed and initially simulated TWSA and for north-south elongated sub-basins. Considering these correlated errors, however, does not generally improve results: while some metrics indicate that it is helpful to consider the full GRACE error covariance matrix, it appears to have an adverse effect on others. We conclude that considering the characteristics of GRACE error correlation is at least as important as the selection of the spatial discretisation of TWSA observations, while the choice

  9. A systematic impact assessment of GRACE error correlation on data assimilation in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Döll, Petra

    2016-02-01

    Recently, ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have found increasing application for merging hydrological models with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) fields from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Previous studies have disregarded the effect of spatially correlated errors of GRACE TWSA products in their investigations. Here, for the first time, we systematically assess the impact of the GRACE error correlation structure on EnKF data assimilation into a hydrological model, i.e. on estimated compartmental and total water storages and model parameter values. Our investigations include (1) assimilating gridded GRACE-derived TWSA into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model and, simultaneously, calibrating its parameters; (2) introducing GRACE observations on different spatial scales; (3) modelling observation errors as either spatially white or correlated in the assimilation procedure, and (4) replacing the standard EnKF algorithm by the square root analysis scheme or, alternatively, the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman filter. Results of a synthetic experiment designed for the Mississippi River Basin indicate that the hydrological parameters are sensitive to TWSA assimilation if spatial resolution of the observation data is sufficiently high. We find a significant influence of spatial error correlation on the adjusted water states and model parameters for all implemented filter variants, in particular for subbasins with a large discrepancy between observed and initially simulated TWSA and for north-south elongated sub-basins. Considering these correlated errors, however, does not generally improve results: while some metrics indicate that it is helpful to consider the full GRACE error covariance matrix, it appears to have an adverse effect on others. We conclude that considering the characteristics of GRACE error correlation is at least as important as the selection of the spatial discretisation of TWSA observations, while the choice

  10. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  11. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  12. Assessing the impact of input data quality on the modelling of shallow landslide susceptibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Geitner, Clemens

    2015-04-01

    Shallow landslides are a widespread phenomenon in mountain regions of the world often posing a serious threat to human living. Hence many recent studies aim at assessing landslide susceptibility in space and time involving various kinds of models (i.e. heuristical, statistical or physically-based). Among others these models commonly require for digital terrain models (DTM) and their derivatives as well as detailed landslide inventories as input data. On the basis of a detailed multitemporal landslide inventory covering three selected communities in Vorarlberg (Austria) focussing on shallow landslides (i.e. debris slides with a maximum scar depth of 1-2 m) and two series of airborne laser scanning data the impact of (i) the DTM used, (ii) varying spatial resolutions and (iii) the influence of different algorithms for the calculation of derivatives are discussed. The distributions of slope, measures of curvature and topographic indices as well as more complex neighbourhood indices (e.g. landform elements derived by the GRASS-tool r.geomorphon) are evaluated within landslide scar areas. In addition the sensitivity of an expert-based approach to the various input data is assessed in ROC-space. Results show that the time of acquisition and spatial resolution of the DTM are essential factors for the quality of the resulting susceptibility map while the algorithm used for the calculation of derivatives plays a minor role. This work has been conducted within C3S-ISLS, which is funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund, 5th ACRP Program.

  13. Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, T.; Huang, S.; Aich, V.; Yang, T.; Wang, X.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable results for stakeholders. In the last 10-15 years, climate impact assessment has been performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate scenarios and models. However, their results are hardly comparable, and do not allow one to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Only a few such studies have been available until now with the global-scale hydrological models, and our study is intended as a step in this direction by applying the regional-scale models. The impact assessment presented here was performed for three river basins on three continents: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and three hydrological models, HBV, SWIM and VIC, were used. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) covering a range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future river discharge and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results allow one to draw some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and shared differently between sources in the studied basins. Robust results in terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be found for the Rhine basin regardless of which hydrological model or forcing GCM is used. For the Niger River, scenarios from climate models are the largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation, and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to uncertainty in the

  14. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  15. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  16. Community Impact Assessment Handbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Northern Alberta Development Council, Peace River.

    This handbook is intended for communities that wish to undertake their own community impact assessment (CIA). The goal is to enable communities to plan for changes before they occur, so they can cope with changes when they do occur. CIA involves forecasting and evaluating the full range of unintended consequences for the community of development…

  17. Environmental Impact Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castrilli, Joseph; Block, Elizabeth

    1975-01-01

    Increasing concern with pollution and the energy crisis surfaced the need for environmental impact assessment. Certain requirements for such statements have been identified by different Canadian groups. Among them are the need for total citizen involvement and the utilization of these statements, once completed. (MA)

  18. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  19. Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagen, S. C.; Lewis, G.; Bartel, R.; Batten, B.; Huang, W.; Morris, J.; Slinn, D. N.; Sparks, J.; Walters, L.; Wang, D.; Weishampel, J.; Yeh, G.

    2010-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to affect a variety of coastal habitats with a myriad of deleterious ecological effects and to overwhelm human settlements along the coast. SLR should be given serious consideration when more than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast. SLR effects will be felt along coastal beaches and in estuarine waters, with consequences to barrier islands, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, sand and mud flats, oyster reefs, and tidal and freshwater wetlands. Managers of these coastal resources must be aware of potential consequences of SLR and adjust their plans accordingly to protect and preserve the resources under their care. The Gulf Coast provides critical habitats for a majority of the commercially important species in the Gulf of Mexico, which depend on inshore waters for either permanent residence or nursery area. The ecosystem services provided by these coastal habitats are at risk from rising sea level. Our team will assess the risk to coasts and coastal habitats from SLR in a 5-year project. We will apply existing models of circulation and transport from the watershed to the sea. The ultimate prediction will be of sediment loadings to the estuary as a result of overland flow, shoreline and barrier island erosion, and salinity transport, all of which will be used to model the evolution of intertidal marshes (MEM II). Over the five-year course of our research we will be simulating hydrodynamics and transport for all three NERRS reserves, including: Apalachicola, Weeks Bay and Grand Bay. The project will result in products whereby managers will be able to assess marshes, oyster reefs, submerged aquatic vegetation, predict wetland stability and indentify restoration locations for marsh and oyster habitats. In addition, we will produce Decision Support tools that will enable managers to predict future coastal erosion rates for management-specified shorelines. Project outcomes will enable the management

  20. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  1. Assessment of Riparian Buffer Impacts Within the Little River Watershed in Georgia USA with the SWAT Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Computer based hydrologic and water quality models have proven to be useful tools for examining alternative management scenarios and their impact on the environment. This examination can be an important component of watershed-scale evaluations. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is a water...

  2. Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra; Harbor, Jon; Engel, Bernie; Grove, Matt

    2000-12-01

    Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS

  3. Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

    2016-04-01

    Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically

  4. Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties.

    PubMed

    Notter, Dominic A

    2015-09-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution. PMID:26001495

  5. Dose-Response Modeling for Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Findingsof the Portland Review Workshop

    SciTech Connect

    McKone, Thomas E.; Kyle, Amy D.; Jolliet, Olivier; Olsen, StigIrving; Hauschild, Michael

    2006-06-01

    The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative aims at putting life cycle thinking into practice and at improving the supporting tools for this process through better data and indicators. The initiative has thus launched three programs with associated working groups (see http://www.uneptie.org/pc/sustain/lcinitiative/). The Task Force on Toxic Impacts was established under the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) program to establish recommended practice and guidance for use in human toxicity, ecosystem toxicity, and related categories with direct effects on human health and ecosystem health. The workshop consisted of three elements. (A) presentations summarizing (1) the goals of the LCIA Task Force (2) historical approaches to exposure and toxic impacts in LCIA (3) current alternative proposals for addressing human health impacts. Viewgraphs from two of these presentations are provided in Appendix B to this report. (B) Discussion among a panel of experts about the scientific defensibility of these historical and proposed approaches in the context of the goals of the LCIA Task Force 3 on toxicity impacts. (C) Development of the recommendations to the LCIA program and working group for optimum short- and long-term strategies for addressing human health impacts in LCA.

  6. High-Resolution Gene Flow Model for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Transgene Escape Based on Biological Parameters and Wind Speed

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Haccou, Patsy; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2016-01-01

    Environmental impacts caused by transgene flow from genetically engineered (GE) crops to their wild relatives mediated by pollination are longstanding biosafety concerns worldwide. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for estimating frequencies of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) that are critical for assessing such environmental impacts. However, most PMGF models are impractical for this purpose because their parameterization requires actual data from field experiments. In addition, most of these models are usually too general and ignored the important biological characteristics of concerned plant species; and therefore cannot provide accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies. It is necessary to develop more accurate PMGF models based on biological and climatic parameters that can be easily measured in situ. Here, we present a quasi-mechanistic PMGF model that only requires the input of biological and wind speed parameters without actual data from field experiments. Validation of the quasi-mechanistic model based on five sets of published data from field experiments showed significant correlations between the model-simulated and field experimental-generated PMGF frequencies. These results suggest accurate prediction for PMGF frequencies using this model, provided that the necessary biological parameters and wind speed data are available. This model can largely facilitate the assessment and management of environmental impacts caused by transgene flow, such as determining transgene flow frequencies at a particular spatial distance, and establishing spatial isolation between a GE crop and its coexisting non-GE counterparts and wild relatives. PMID:26959240

  7. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538. [Concerning the impact at power plants on fish populations

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, S W

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods.

  8. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew F.; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon

    2014-03-01

    Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin

  9. Advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for assessing welfare impacts associated with vertebrate pest control.

    PubMed

    Beausoleil, N J; Mellor, D J

    2015-01-01

    Many pest control activities have the potential to impact negatively on the welfare of animals, and animal welfare is an important consideration in the development, implementation and evaluation of ethically defensible vertebrate pest control. Thus, reliable and accurate methods for assessing welfare impacts are required. The Five Domains model provides a systematic method for identifying potential or actual welfare impacts associated with an event or situation in four physical or functional domains (nutrition, environment, health or functional status, behaviour) and one mental domain (overall mental or affective state). Here we evaluate the advantages and limitations of the Five Domains model for this purpose and illustrate them using specific examples from a recent assessment of the welfare impacts of poisons used to lethally control possums in New Zealand. The model has a number of advantages which include the following: the systematic identification of a wide range of impacts associated with a variety of control tools; the production of relative rankings of tools in terms of their welfare impacts; the easy incorporation of new information into assessments; and the highlighting of additional information needed. For example, a recent analysis of sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poisoning in possums revealed the need for more information on the period from the onset of clinical signs to the point at which consciousness is lost, as well as on the level of consciousness during or after the occurrence of muscle spasms and seizures. The model is also valuable because it clearly separates physical or functional and affective impacts, encourages more comprehensive consideration of negative affective experiences than has occurred in the past, and allows development and evaluation of targeted mitigation strategies. Caution must be used in interpreting and applying the outputs of the model, most importantly because relative rankings or grades are fundamentally qualitative in

  10. Numerical modeling of chemical spills and assessment of their environmental impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Chemical spills in surface water bodies often occur in modern societies, which cause significant impacts on water quality, eco-environment and drinking water safety. In this paper, chemical spill contamination in water resources was studied using a depth-integrated computational model, CCHE2D, for p...

  11. Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

  12. Assessment of survivability of liquid water and organic materials through modeling of large-scale impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blank, Jennifer

    Comets, estimated to contain up to 25 wt.% organic material as both ices and more complex, refractory compounds, have been proposed as a vehicle for the delivery of organic compounds to the early Earth and other rocky planets. Successful delivery requires that some of the organic materials survive the extreme temperatures associated with impact, but the response of organic compounds to impact (shock) processing under these conditions is unknown. Several researchers have explored organic-delivery scenarios computationally and experimentally. Here, I will summarize work that addresses the issue of impact delivery and focus on current efforts to track the phase-state of water during a modeled comet-earth collision over a range of impact angles. On the basis of model results generated using a three-dimensional shock physics code (GEODYN), I will infer survivability of organic compounds and liquid water in a range of impact scenarios for comet-Earth and asteroid-Earth collisions. These results will be described in the context of the flux of astromaterials, and organic matter in particular, to young planets.

  13. Target Rotations and Assessing the Impact of Model Violations on the Parameters of Unidimensional Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reise, Steven; Moore, Tyler; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Reise, Cook, and Moore proposed a "comparison modeling" approach to assess the distortion in item parameter estimates when a unidimensional item response theory (IRT) model is imposed on multidimensional data. Central to their approach is the comparison of item slope parameter estimates from a unidimensional IRT model (a restricted model), with…

  14. Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bucinell, Ronald B.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

  15. Mechanistic Modeling of Emergency Events: Assessing the Impact of Hypothetical Releases of Anthrax

    PubMed Central

    Isukapalli, S. S.; Lioy, P. J.; Georgopoulos, P. G.

    2011-01-01

    A modular system for source-to-dose-to-effect modeling analysis has been developed based on the modeling environment for total risk studies (MENTOR),(1) and applied to study the impacts of hypothetical atmospheric releases of anthrax spores. The system, MENTOR-2E (MENTOR for Emergency Events), provides mechanistically consistent analysis of inhalation exposures for various release scenarios, while allowing consideration of specific susceptible subpopulations (such as the elderly) at the resolution of individual census tracts. The MENTOR-2E application presented here includes atmospheric dispersion modeling, statistically representative samples of individuals along with corresponding activity patterns, and population-based dosimetry modeling that accounts for activity and physiological variability. Two hypothetical release scenarios were simulated: a 100 g release of weaponized B. anthracis over a period of (a) one hour and (b) 10 hours, and the impact of these releases on population in the State of New Jersey was studied. Results were compared with those from simplified modeling of population dynamics (location, activities, etc.), and atmospheric dispersion of anthrax spores. The comparisons showed that in the two release scenarios simulated, each major approximation resulted in an overestimation of the number of probable infections by a factor of 5 to 10; these overestimations can have significant public health implications when preparing for and responding effectively to an actual release. This is in addition to uncertainties in dose-response modeling, which result in an additional factor of 5 to 10 variation in estimated casualties. The MENTOR-2E system has been developed in a modular fashion so that improvements in individual modules can be readily made without impacting the other modules, and provides a first step toward the development of models that can be used in supporting real-time decision making. PMID:18643828

  16. Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

    Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to

  17. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  19. Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-03-01

    As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

  20. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  1. Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasari, Sumanta; Dikshit, Onkar

    2014-07-01

    This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog ( Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331-1342, 2010) of 20 events ( M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north-east India and its surrounding region (20°-32°N and 87°-100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.

  2. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  3. A Biophysical Modeling Framework for Assessing the Environmental Impact of Biofuel Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Izaurradle, C.; Manowitz, D.; West, T. O.; Post, W. M.; Thomson, A. M.; Nichols, J.; Bandaru, V.; Williams, J. R.

    2009-12-01

    Long-term sustainability of a biofuel economy necessitates environmentally friendly biofuel production systems. We describe a biophysical modeling framework developed to understand and quantify the environmental value and impact (e.g. water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and soil quality) of different biomass cropping systems. This modeling framework consists of three major components: 1) a Geographic Information System (GIS) based data processing system, 2) a spatially-explicit biophysical modeling approach, and 3) a user friendly information distribution system. First, we developed a GIS to manage the large amount of geospatial data (e.g. climate, land use, soil, and hydrograhy) and extract input information for the biophysical model. Second, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) biophysical model is used to predict the impact of various cropping systems and management intensities on productivity, water balance, and biogeochemical variables. Finally, a geo-database is developed to distribute the results of ecosystem service variables (e.g. net primary productivity, soil carbon balance, soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and N2O fluxes) simulated by EPIC for each spatial modeling unit online using PostgreSQL. We applied this framework in a Regional Intensive Management Area (RIMA) of 9 counties in Michigan. A total of 4,833 spatial units with relatively homogeneous biophysical properties were derived using SSURGO, Crop Data Layer, County, and 10-digit watershed boundaries. For each unit, EPIC was executed from 1980 to 2003 under 54 cropping scenarios (eg. corn, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar). The simulation results were compared with historical crop yields from USDA NASS. Spatial mapping of the results show high variability among different cropping scenarios in terms of the simulated ecosystem services variables. Overall, the framework developed in this study enables the incorporation of environmental factors into economic and

  4. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    SciTech Connect

    Nooij, R.J.W. de . E-mail: R.deNooij@science.ru.nl; Lotterman, K.M.; Sande, P.H.J. van de; Pelsma, T.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.; Lenders, H.J.R.

    2006-11-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments

  5. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape

  6. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  7. Integrated assessment of acid deposition impacts using reduced-form modeling. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Sinha, R.; Small, M.J.

    1996-05-01

    Emissions of sulfates and other acidic pollutants from anthropogenic sources result in the deposition of these acidic pollutants on the earth`s surface, downwind of the source. These pollutants reach surface waters, including streams and lakes, and acidify them, resulting in a change in the chemical composition of the surface water. Sometimes the water chemistry is sufficiently altered so that the lake can no longer support aquatic life. This document traces the efforts by many researchers to understand and quantify the effect of acid deposition on the water chemistry of populations of lakes, in particular the improvements to the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) modeling effort, and describes its reduced-form representation in a decision and uncertainty analysis tool. Previous reduced-form approximations to the MAGIC model are discussed in detail, and their drawbacks are highlighted. An improved reduced-form model for acid neutralizing capacity is presented, which incorporates long-term depletion of the watershed acid neutralization fraction. In addition, improved fish biota models are incorporated in the integrated assessment model, which includes reduced-form models for other physical and chemical processes of acid deposition, as well as the resulting socio-economic and health related effects. The new reduced-form lake chemistry and fish biota models are applied to the Adirondacks region of New York.

  8. The role of model selection in representing evapotranspiration processes in climate impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2015-04-01

    Projected changes to near-surface atmospheric temperature, wind, humidity and solar radiation are expected to lead to changes in evaporative demand - and thus changes to the catchment water balance - in many catchments worldwide. To quantify likely implications on runoff, a modelling chain is commonly used in which the meteorological variables are first converted to potential evapotranspiration (PET), followed by the conversion of PET to runoff using one or more rainfall-runoff models. The role of the PET model and rainfall-runoff model selection on changes to the catchment water balance is assessed using a sensitivity analysis applied to data from five climatologically different catchments in Australia. Changes to temperature have the strongest influence on both evapotranspiration and runoff for all models and catchments, whereas the relative role of the remaining variables depends on both the catchment location and the PET and rainfall-runoff model choice. Importantly, sensitivity experiments show that 1) distributions of climate variables differ for dry/wet conditions; 2) seasonal distribution of changes to PET differs for driving variables. These findings suggest possible interactions between PET model selection and the way that evapotranspiration processes are represented within rainfall-runoff model. For a constant percentage change to PET, this effect can lead to five-fold difference in runoff changes depending on which meteorological variable is being perturbed.

  9. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions. PMID:25261748

  10. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  11. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-06-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  12. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  13. Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases.

  14. Assessing the impacts of agricultural change on soil erosion over the last century: a multi-model ensemble approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sellami, Haykel; Smith, Hugh; Sangster, Heather; Riley, Mark; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil erosion models (SEMs) are valuable tools for understanding the links between past agricultural practices and soil erosion. Use of SEMs allows assessment of impacts from agricultural change over timescales that exceed instrumental records but correspond to periods for which considerable land use and climate information are available. Here, we develop a modelling framework to investigate the potential impacts of changes in agricultural practices and climate on soil erosion and sediment transport over the last 100 years in six lake catchments in Britain spanning upland and lowland environments. The modelling platform comprises a multi-model ensemble of derivatives of the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) and RUSLE models. Simulation of change in land use/land cover (LULC), drainage features, crop rotation and livestock grazing are accounted for by reconstructing LULC maps from 1888 to 2007. Reconstructions of climatic conditions combine multiple records using regression and artificial neural network techniques to derive long-term daily precipitation and temperature series from 1880 to present. The modelling platform uses a grid-based modelling approach to handle the spatial distribution and heterogeneity in LULC, soil and topographic information. For each soil type, a database of physical parameters was created by combining information from the literature, LandIS soil database and pedotransfer functions. At each grid cell, a rainfall-Runoff (RR) model based on saturation excess runoff generation mechanisms provides daily soil moisture content. Furthermore, the modelling platform encompasses a crop cover model (CC) based on the Heat Unit approach developed to simulate daily Leaf Area Index for each crop type. Both the RR and CC models are used to update the canopy and ground cover parameters. In the absence of long-term river monitoring data, lake sediment records are used to compare the multi-model simulations thus creating a baseline from which to project impacts from

  15. Assessment of the Impact of Zoledronic Acid on Ovariectomized Osteoporosis Model Using Micro-CT Scanning

    PubMed Central

    Shuai, Bo; Shen, Lin; Yang, Yanping; Ma, Chen; Zhu, Rui; Xu, Xiaojuan

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective Prompted by preliminary findings, this study was conducted to investigate the impact of zoledronic acid on the cancellous bone microstructure and its effect on the level of β-catenin in a mouse model of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Methods and Materials 96 8-week-old specific-pathogen-free C57BL/6 mice were randomly divided into 4 groups (24 per group): a sham group, an ovariectomized osteoporosis model group, an estradiol-treated group, and a zoledronic acid-treated group. Five months after surgery, the third lumbar vertebra and left femur of the animals were dissected and scanned using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) to acquire three-dimensional imagery of their cancellous bone microstructure. The impact of ovariectomy, the effect of estradiol, and the effect of zoledronic acid intervention on cancellous bone microstructure, as well as on the expression of β-catenin, were evaluated. Results The estradiol-treated and the zoledronic acid-treated group exhibited a significant increase in the bone volume fraction, trabecular number, trabecular thickness, bone surface to bone volume ratio (BS/BV), and β-catenin expression, when compared with those of the control group (P <0.01). In contrast, the structure model index, trabecular separation, and BS/BV were significantly lower compared with those of the model group (P <0.01). No differences were observed in the above parameters between animals of the zoledronic acid-treated and the estradiol-treated group. Conclusion These results suggest that increased β-catenin expression may be the mechanism underlying zoledronic acid-related improvement in the cancellous bone microstructure in ovariectomized mice. Our findings provide a scientific rationale for using zoledronic acid as a therapeutic intervention to prevent bone loss in post-menopausal women. PMID:26148020

  16. Human Reconstituted Nasal Epithelium, a promising in vitro model to assess impacts of environmental complex mixtures.

    PubMed

    Bardet, Gaëlle; Mignon, Virginie; Momas, Isabelle; Achard, Sophie; Seta, Nathalie

    2016-04-01

    Considering the impact of respiratory diseases around the world, appropriate experimental tools to help understand the mechanisms involved in such diseases are becoming essential. Our aim was to investigate the cellular and morphological reactivity of a human Reconstituted Nasal Epithelium (hRNE) to evaluate the impact of environmental complex mixture (ECM), with tobacco smoke as a model, after three weeks of repeated exposures. Staining of hRNE showed a multilayered ciliated epithelium, with a regular cilia beats, and a mucus production. When hRNE was exposed to ECM for 5 min once or twice a week, during 3 weeks, significant changes occurred: IL-8 production significantly increased 24h after the first exposure compared with Air-exposure and only during the first week, without any loss of tissue integrity. Immunostaining of F-actin cytoskeleton showed a modification in cellular morphology (number and diameter). Taken together our results indicate that hRNE is well suited to study the cellular and morphological effects of repeated exposures to an environmental complex mixture. Human reconstituted epithelium models are currently the best in vitro representation of human respiratory tract physiology, and also the most robust for performing repeated exposures to atmospheric pollutants. PMID:26631767

  17. Coupling hydrological and impact assessment models to explore nutrient cycling in freshwater systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwman, Lex; van Beek, Rens; Beusen, Arthur; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    The IMAGE-Global Nutrient Model (GNM) is a new globally distributed, spatially explicit model in which the hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB is coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE to simulate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery, and then with a spiraling ecological approach to simulating instream biogeochemistry. Routing the water with dissolved and suspended N and P from upstream grid cells occurs simultaneous with N and P delivery to water bodies within grid cells from diffuse and point sources (wastewater). IMAGE-GNM describes the following diffuse sources associated with the water flow: surface runoff, shallow and deep groundwater, riparian zones. Depending on the landscape features, all these flows may be present within one grid cell. Furthermore, diffuse N and P inputs occur through allochtonous organic matter inputs via litterfall in (temporarily) inundated river floodplains, and atmospheric deposition. In the spiraling concept, the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity determine N and P retention in water bodies. Validation of model results with observations yields acceptable agreement given the global scale of the uncalibrated model. Sensitivity analysis shows shifts in the importance of the different sources, with decreasing importance of natural sources and increasing influence of wastewater and agriculture. IMAGE-GNM can be employed to study the interaction between society and the environment over prolonged time periods. Here we show results for the full 20th century.

  18. Assessment of the Impacts of Compensation Flow Changes Upon Instream Habitat Using 2D Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, D. C.; Lane, S. N.; Christmas, M.

    2004-05-01

    Many millstone-grit rivers in northern England are impounded. In such cases the water company in the area has to release compensation flows from the reservoirs, traditionally to meet industrial needs: these flows are rarely set with ecology in mind; and have commonly involved constant flow. Dam overtopping may create spates, but spawning in many fish species is prompted by a spate flow in the early autumn when dams are rarely full enough to overtop. Such flows are important for fine sediment flushing and controlling the wetted useable area for spawning. Classical physical habitat modelling for instream habitat has been largely reliant upon 1D approaches, such as the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). Here we use a 2D finite element model (FESWMS), to simulate changes in instream habitat with variations in the compensation flow regimes. The spatial resolution of 2D models can be adapted to the scale of fish habitats so providing better representation of the reach-scale flow processes (such as slack water in the margins, wetting and drying) than the 1D case. The model is applied to the Rivers Rivelin and Loxley in Sheffield, Northern England. At the confluence of the two rivers, the compensation flow level is set at 30.6 Thousand Cubic Metres per Day (TCMD). Due to historical reasons, the compensation is not divided equally, as the Loxley receives 28 TCMD whilst the Rivelin receives only 2.6 TCMD. The model is used to simulate a transfer of 6 TCMD from the Loxley to the Rivelin. After validation, model predictions are combined with available habitat requirement data (e.g. velocity and depth needs) to develop an index of change in habitat suitability in terms of first order variables (e.g. velocity, depth and wetted useable area). This suggests that the change in compensation may significantly improve instream ecology in relation to macroinvertebrates, brown trout (Salmo trutta) and bullhead (Cottus gobio) in the Rivelin without causing detrimental impacts

  19. Flood pulse alterations and productivity of the Tonle Sap ecosystem: a model for impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Lamberts, Dirk; Koponen, Jorma

    2008-05-01

    Tonle Sap Lake is a large and complex data-deficient ecosystem in the Mekong River Basin. Highly valuable in biodiversity and natural livelihoods capital, it is susceptible to degradation when the flood pulse that drives its productivity is altered as a result of hydropower and irrigation development on the Mekong River. To date, there are no tools to assess the consequences of such flood pulse alterations, leaving the Tonle Sap underrated in water-resources use and planning. A combined ecological-hydrodynamic model is presented for the production potential of the Tonle Sap ecosystem and its likely response to hydrological changes. PMID:18595272

  20. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  1. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

    2016-09-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region. PMID:26984258

  2. Impact assessment of ammonia emissions on inorganic aerosols in East China using response surface modeling technique.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuxiao; Xing, Jia; Jang, Carey; Zhu, Yun; Fu, Joshua S; Hao, Jiming

    2011-11-01

    Ammonia (NH(3)) is one important precursor of inorganic fine particles; however, knowledge of the impacts of NH(3) emissions on aerosol formation in China is very limited. In this study, we have developed China's NH(3) emission inventory for 2005 and applied the Response Surface Modeling (RSM) technique upon a widely used regional air quality model, the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). The purpose was to analyze the impacts of NH(3) emissions on fine particles for January, April, July, and October over east China, especially those most developed regions including the North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River delta (YRD), and the Pearl River delta (PRD). The results indicate that NH(3) emissions contribute to 8-11% of PM(2.5) concentrations in these three regions, comparable with the contributions of SO(2) (9-11%) and NO(x) (5-11%) emissions. However, NH(3), SO(2), and NO(x) emissions present significant nonlinear impacts; the PM(2.5) responses to their emissions increase when more control efforts are taken mainly because of the transition between NH(3)-rich and NH(3)-poor conditions. Nitrate aerosol (NO(3)(-)) concentration is more sensitive to NO(x) emissions in NCP and YRD because of the abundant NH(3) emissions in the two regions, but it is equally or even more sensitive to NH(3) emissions in the PRD. In high NO(3)(-) pollution areas such as NCP and YRD, NH(3) is sufficiently abundant to neutralize extra nitric acid produced by an additional 25% of NO(x) emissions. The 90% increase of NH(3) emissions during 1990-2005 resulted in about 50-60% increases of NO(3)(-) and SO(4)(2-) aerosol concentrations. If no control measures are taken for NH(3) emissions, NO(3)(-) will be further enhanced in the future. Control of NH(3) emissions in winter, spring, and fall will benefit PM(2.5) reduction for most regions. However, to improve regional air quality and avoid exacerbating the acidity of aerosols, a more effective pathway is to adopt a multipollutant

  3. Predicting Low Flow Conditions from Climatic Indices - Indicator-Based Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In the face of climate change, the assessment of future hydrological regimes has become indispensable in the field of water resources management. Investigation of potential change is vital for proper planning, especially with regard to hydrological extremes. Commonly, projection of future streamflow is done applying process-based hydrological models, using climate model data as input, whose complex model structures generally require excessive amounts of time and effort for set-up and computation. This study aims at identifying practical alternatives to the employment of sophisticated models by considering simpler, yet sufficiently accurate methods for modeling rainfall-runoff relations with regard to hydrological extremes. The focus is thereby put on the prediction of low flow periods, which are, in contrast to flood events, characterized by extended durations and spatial dimensions. The models to be established in this study base on indicators, which characterize both meteorological and hydrological conditions within dry periods. This approach makes direct use of the coupling between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response with the underlying presumption that low-precipitation and high-evaporation periods result in diminished flow, implying that relationships exist between the properties of both meteorological and hydrological events (duration, volume, severity etc.). Eventually, optimal combinations of meteorological indicators are sought that are suitable to predict various low flow characteristics with satisfactory accuracy. Two approaches for model specification are tested: a) multiple linear regression, and b) Fuzzy logic. The data used for this study are daily time series of mean discharge obtained from 294 gauges with variable record length situated in the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany, as well as interpolated climate variables available for a period from 1951 to 2011. After extraction of a variety of indicators from the available

  4. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A.; Lima, Albertina P.; Machado, Ricardo B.; Magnusson, William E.

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion. PMID:26784891

  5. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A; Lima, Albertina P; Machado, Ricardo B; Magnusson, William E

    2016-01-01

    Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion. PMID:26784891

  6. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  7. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report. Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S.; Kramer White, Julie; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2005-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  8. A geometric scaling model for assessing the impact of aneurysm size ratio on hemodynamic characteristics

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The intracranial aneurysm (IA) size has been proved to have impacts on the hemodynamics and can be applied for the prediction of IA rupture risk. Although the relationship between aspect ratio and hemodynamic parameters was investigated using real patients and virtual models, few studies focused on longitudinal experiments of IAs based on patient-specific aneurysm models. We attempted to do longitudinal simulation experiments of IAs by developing a series of scaled models. Methods In this work, a novel scaling approach was proposed to create IA models with different aneurysm size ratios (ASRs) defined as IA height divided by average neck diameter from a patient-specific aneurysm model and the relationship between the ASR and hemodynamics was explored based on a simulated longitudinal experiment. Wall shear stress, flow patterns and vessel wall displacement were computed from these models. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to elucidate the relationship between the ASR and wall shear stress. The correlation of the ASR and flow velocity was also computed and analyzed. Results The experiment results showed that there was a significant increase in IA area exposed to low WSS once the ASR > 0.7, and the flow became slower and the blood was more difficult to flow into the aneurysm as the ASR increased. Meanwhile, the results also indicated that average blood flow velocity and WSS had strongly negative correlations with the ASR (r = −0.938 and −0.925, respectively). A narrower impingement region and a more concentrated inflow jet appeared as the ASR increased, and the large local deformation at aneurysm apex could be found as the ASR >1.7 or 0.7 < the ASR <1.0. Conclusion Hemodynamic characteristics varied with the ASR. Besides, it is helpful to further explore the relationship between morphologies and hemodynamics based on a longitudinal simulation by building a series of patient-specific aneurysm scaled models applying our proposed IA

  9. Impact assessment of repeated exposure of organotypic 3D bronchial and nasal tissue culture models to whole cigarette smoke.

    PubMed

    Kuehn, Diana; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Dulize, Remi; Baumer, Karine; Iskandar, Anita; Boue, Stephanie; Martin, Florian; Kostadinova, Radina; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Frentzel, Stefan; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has a major impact on lung biology and may result in the development of lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or lung cancer. To understand the underlying mechanisms of disease development, it would be important to examine the impact of CS exposure directly on lung tissues. However, this approach is difficult to implement in epidemiological studies because lung tissue sampling is complex and invasive. Alternatively, tissue culture models can facilitate the assessment of exposure impacts on the lung tissue. Submerged 2D cell cultures, such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell cultures, have traditionally been used for this purpose. However, they cannot be exposed directly to smoke in a similar manner to the in vivo exposure situation. Recently developed 3D tissue culture models better reflect the in vivo situation because they can be cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Their basal sides are immersed in the culture medium; whereas, their apical sides are exposed to air. Moreover, organotypic tissue cultures that contain different type of cells, better represent the physiology of the tissue in vivo. In this work, the utilization of an in vitro exposure system to expose human organotypic bronchial and nasal tissue models to mainstream CS is demonstrated. Ciliary beating frequency and the activity of cytochrome P450s (CYP) 1A1/1B1 were measured to assess functional impacts of CS on the tissues. Furthermore, to examine CS-induced alterations at the molecular level, gene expression profiles were generated from the tissues following exposure. A slight increase in CYP1A1/1B1 activity was observed in CS-exposed tissues compared with air-exposed tissues. A network-and transcriptomics-based systems biology approach was sufficiently robust to demonstrate CS-induced alterations of xenobiotic metabolism that were similar to those observed in the bronchial and nasal epithelial cells obtained from smokers. PMID:25741927

  10. Impact Assessment of Repeated Exposure of Organotypic 3D Bronchial and Nasal Tissue Culture Models to Whole Cigarette Smoke

    PubMed Central

    Kuehn, Diana; Majeed, Shoaib; Guedj, Emmanuel; Dulize, Remi; Baumer, Karine; Iskandar, Anita; Boue, Stephanie; Martin, Florian; Kostadinova, Radina; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V.; Frentzel, Stefan; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2015-01-01

    Cigarette smoke (CS) has a major impact on lung biology and may result in the development of lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or lung cancer. To understand the underlying mechanisms of disease development, it would be important to examine the impact of CS exposure directly on lung tissues. However, this approach is difficult to implement in epidemiological studies because lung tissue sampling is complex and invasive. Alternatively, tissue culture models can facilitate the assessment of exposure impacts on the lung tissue. Submerged 2D cell cultures, such as normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cell cultures, have traditionally been used for this purpose. However, they cannot be exposed directly to smoke in a similar manner to the in vivo exposure situation. Recently developed 3D tissue culture models better reflect the in vivo situation because they can be cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Their basal sides are immersed in the culture medium; whereas, their apical sides are exposed to air. Moreover, organotypic tissue cultures that contain different type of cells, better represent the physiology of the tissue in vivo. In this work, the utilization of an in vitro exposure system to expose human organotypic bronchial and nasal tissue models to mainstream CS is demonstrated. Ciliary beating frequency and the activity of cytochrome P450s (CYP) 1A1/1B1 were measured to assess functional impacts of CS on the tissues. Furthermore, to examine CS-induced alterations at the molecular level, gene expression profiles were generated from the tissues following exposure. A slight increase in CYP1A1/1B1 activity was observed in CS-exposed tissues compared with air-exposed tissues. A network-and transcriptomics-based systems biology approach was sufficiently robust to demonstrate CS-induced alterations of xenobiotic metabolism that were similar to those observed in the bronchial and nasal epithelial cells obtained from smokers. PMID:25741927

  11. Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant. PMID:27063732

  12. Characterizing Emissions from Prescribed Fires and Assessing Impacts to Air Quality in the Lake Tahoe Basin Using Dispersion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malamakal, Tom M.

    A PM2.5 monitoring network was established around Lake Tahoe during fall 2011, which, in conjunction with measurements at prescribed burns and smoke dispersion modeling based on the Fire Emission Production Simulator and the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (FEPS-HYSPLIT) Model, served to evaluate the prescribed burning impacts on air quality. Emissions from pile and understory prescribed burns were characterized using a mobile air monitoring system. In field PM2.5 emission factors showed ranges consistent with laboratory combustion of wet and dry fuels. Measurements in the smoke plume showed progression from flaming to smoldering phase consistent with FEPS and PM2.5 emission factors generally increased with decreasing combustion efficiency. Model predicted smoke contributions are consistent with elevated ambient PM2.5 concentrations in three case studies, and high meteorological model resolution (2km x 2 km) seems to produce accurate smoke arriving times. In other cases, the model performance is difficult to evaluate due to low predicted smoke contributions relative to the typical ambient PM2.5 level. Synergistic assessment of modeling and measurement can be used to determine basin air quality impact. The findings from this study will help land management agencies better understand the implications of managing fire at the wildland-urban interface.

  13. Assessment to CCN impacts on stratocumulus cloud development by LES model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, K.; Yum, S.; Park, S. K.

    2006-12-01

    Since stratocumulus clouds cover about 25 % of the entire global ocean, it is necessary to identify the potentially significant impact of these clouds on climate. Anthropogenic and natural aerosol serve as a source of CCN. Due to the increase of human activities anthropogenic aerosol distributions vary with time and place. Radiative properties of stratocumulus clouds formed on these anthropogenic CCN also vary since increased CCN increase the concentration of cloud droplets and induce changes in liquid water content resulting from feedbacks involving precipitation and entrainment. This study investigates the CCN impacts (3 cases: extreme continental, continental and maritime) on stratocumulus clouds development using the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) large eddy simulation (LES) model with size-resolving microphysics and attempts to understand how turbulence interacts with cloud microphysics. Initial extreme continental CCN spectrum is taken from the recent measurement on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. Initial continental and maritime CCN spectra are selected from aircraft measurement over the Atlantic ocean. The cumulative CCN concentrations at 1 % supersaturation are 5292, 1023 and 163 cm-3 for extreme continental, continental and maritime, respectively. Preliminary results show that, cloud droplet number concentration was higher and mean diameter of cloud droplets, cloud liquid water content and drizzle liquid water content were smaller when CCN concentrations were higher. For maritime case, precipitation started after 75 minutes and lasted until the end of the run at 6 hours, while for continental case there was no drizzle reaching the surface for the whole 6 hours. Detailed feature of stratocumulus cloud evolution will be discussed at the meeting focusing on the decoupling processes of the stratus topped boundary layer and the water vapor sources at the surface in the daytime by the shortwave heating of the cloud

  14. Assessing the impacts of reservoir operation to floodplain inundation by combining hydrological, reservoir management, and hydrodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mateo, Cherry May; Hanasaki, Naota; Komori, Daisuke; Tanaka, Kenji; Kiguchi, Masashi; Champathong, Adisorn; Sukhapunnaphan, Thada; Yamazaki, Dai; Oki, Taikan

    2014-09-01

    A catastrophic flood event which caused massive economic losses occurred in Thailand, in 2011. Several studies have already been conducted to analyze the Thai floods, but none of them have assessed the impacts of reservoir operation on flood inundation. This study addresses this gap by combining physically based hydrological models to explicitly simulate the impacts of reservoir operation on flooding in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. H08, an integrated water resources model with a reservoir operation module, was combined with CaMa-Flood, a river routing model with representation of flood dynamics. The combined H08-CaMa model was applied to simulate and assess the historical and alternative reservoir operation rules in the two largest reservoirs in the basin. The combined H08-CaMa model effectively simulated the 2011 flood: regulated flows at a major gauging station have high daily NSE-coefficient of 92% as compared with observed discharge; spatiotemporal extent of simulated flood inundation match well with those of satellite observations. Simulation results show that through the operation of reservoirs in 2011, flood volume was reduced by 8.6 billion m3 and both depth and area of flooding were reduced by 40% on the average. Nonetheless, simple modifications in reservoir operation proved to further reduce the flood volume by 2.4 million m3 and the depth and area of flooding by 20% on the average. By modeling reservoir operation with a hydrodynamic model, a more realistic simulation of the 2011 Thai flood was made possible, and the potential of reducing flood inundation through improved reservoir management was quantified.

  15. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    SciTech Connect

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  16. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  17. Scoping for Social Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Branch, Kristi M.; Ross, Helen

    2000-12-01

    Social assessment combines research, analytic, and participatory processes to identify, describe, and interpret changes in the ?human environment? that result from any of a wide variety of change agents -- projects, policies, or planning activities. Scoping for social impact assessment draws upon these same three processes - research, analysis, and participation - to: - Disclose information about the proposed action, preliminary estimates of impacts, and plans for the decision making and assessment effort - Initiate dialogue with the interested and potentially affected publics and decision makers - Establish the focus and level of detail of the assessment, identify particular issues that need to be addressed, and clarify how potentially affected publics will be consulted and involved. This chapter describes the function and key objectives of the scoping process, explains the assessment framework and the conventions and issues that set the context for the scoping process, provides some suggestions about how to plan and conduct scoping for a social assessment, and discusses some of the key issues that must be addressed in designing an effective scoping process for social impact assessment. Our approach recognises that social scientists may be involved in assessment tasks that involve other disciplinary areas. This may be an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA, the analysis of the impacts of policies or plans, or the combination of impact assessment with planning), or a planning process.

  18. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  19. Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

  20. Impact of spatial input data resolution on hydrological and erosion modeling: Recommendations from a global assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaplot, V.

    The need to precisely describe the characteristics of a landscape is well-known in mathematical modeling from different environmental disciplines. Because spatial input data, such as climate, relief and soil maps are costly to obtain, especially when large areas are considered, several research studies have investigated the extent to which the resolution of these can be reduced. Yet, a consensus has not been reached on the question of models' sensitivity to the whole range of spatial input data and for different environmental conditions. This issue was illustrated with the analysis of existing results from 41 watersheds from 30 research studies using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Because these studies were not consistent in the type of spatial input data considered and the range of resolutions, an application of SWAT was performed in a flat 2612 ha flat watershed of central Iowa (USA) where the sensitivity of runoff (R), NO3-N (N) and sediment (SED) yields was tested for changes in the resolution of all the required spatial input data (digital elevation model: DEM: 20-500 m; n = 12; number of rain gauge: NRAIN from 1 to 13; n = 8; soil map: SOIL: 1/25,000-1/500,000; n = 3) and in the number of watershed sub-divisions (NSW from 4 to 115; n = 4). At the flat watershed, a Canonical Correlation Analysis with 67.4% of data variance explained by the two first variates, revealed that R and SED predictions were affected, mostly by NSW (r = 0.95), followed by SOIL (r = 0.18). N loads were the most sensitive to RAIN (r = 0.76) and DEM (r = 0.41), followed by SOIL (r = 0.23) and NSW (r = -0.17). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), that describes the significance of resolution changes for a considered spatial input data, showed that the model's sensitivity was greater for SSW below 261 ha, for 30 < DEM < 100 m and across the whole range of NRAIN. Finally, the analysis of watersheds with different sizes and environmental conditions revealed that the minimum

  1. Towards a climate impact assessment of the Tarim River, NW China: integrated hydrological modelling using SWIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wortmann, Michel

    2014-05-01

    The Tarim River is the principle water source of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, NW China and the country's largest endorheic river, terminating in the Taklamakan desert. The vast majority of discharge is generated in the glaciated mountain ranges to the north (Tian Shan), south (Kunlun Shan/Tibetan Plateau) and west (Pamir Mountains) of the Taklamakan desert. The main water user is the intensive irrigation agriculture for mostly cotton and fruit production in linear river oases of the middle and lower reaches as well as a population of 10 Mil. people. Over the past 40 years, an increase in river discharge was reported, assumed to be caused by enhanced glacier melt due to a warming climate. Rapid population growth and economic development have led to a significant expansion of area under irrigation, resulting in water shortages for downstream users and the floodplain vegetation. Water resource planning and management of the Tarim require integrated assessment tools to examine changes under future climate change, land use and irrigation scenarios. The development of such tools, however, is challenged by sparse climate and discharge data as well as available data on water abstractions and diversions. The semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was implemented for the headwater and middle reaches that generate over 90% of discharge, including the Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant rivers. It includes the representation of snow and glacier melt as well as irrigation abstractions. Once calibrated and validated to river discharge, the model is used to analyse future climate scenarios provided by one physically-based and one statistical regional climate model (RCM). Preliminary results of the model calibration and validation indicate that SWIM is able simulate river discharge adequately, despite poor data conditions. Snow and glacier melt account for the largest share in river discharge. The modelling results will devise

  2. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  3. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    SciTech Connect

    Gontier, Mikael . E-mail: gontier@kth.se

    2007-07-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects.

  4. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  5. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  6. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.; Mostovoy, G.

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

  7. Assessing impacts of hydropower schemes in upland rivers and sensitivity to hydrological change: new modelling tools for evaluating environmental flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tetzlaff, D.; Geris, J.; Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; Soulsby, C.

    2013-12-01

    Upland river systems provide a suite of critical ecosystem services, such as the provision of high quality downstream water supplies and the maintenance of in-stream habitats. Environmental legislation dictates that exploiting the hydro-power potential of such headwaters requires that the ecological status of in-stream habitats is maintained. This requires that decision makers have adequate scientific understanding of natural flow regimes, the nature of regulation impacts, and the sensitivity of managed systems to future change. This is often limited by a lack of adequate pre- regulation data. Here we present a new modelling tool that can be used in data sparse mountain river ecosystems to assess current impacts, evaluate sensitivity to future change and provide a basis for discussing the development of new adaptive management strategies. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was adapted to incorporate regulation components (reservoirs, water transfers), and applied to the heavily regulated River Lyon (391 km2), Scotland, UK. The Lyon has long been subjected to hydropower generation, which is supported by several river impoundments and a complex network of inter- and intra-catchment water transfers, and there are concerns that these are affecting high conservation status freshwater populations of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar). In the absence of adequate pre-regulation data, the model was used to characterise the natural flow regime, assess the regulation impacts, and explore sensitivities to hydrological changes in water management. Overall, changes following regulation in the Lyon include decreases in inter-and intra annual variability of all parameters of the flow regime in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration and timing that are important in various life stages of the Atlantic Salmon. Although these effects are most pronounced closest to the impoundments, the regulation affects the regime for a considerable distance downstream. Sensitivity tests showed that a more

  8. A simplified model for assessing the impact to groundwater of swine farms at regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Viterbo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Swine manure can be an excellent source of nutrients for crop production. Several swine farms are present in the territory of Regione Umbria and more than 200.000 of swine heads are present yearly in the whole territory while some municipalities host more than 30.000 heads over a relatively limited land. Municipality with elevated number of swine heads has registered particularly higher Nitrate concentration in groundwater that requires a management plan and intervention in order to determine the maximum allowed N loads in the specific region. Use of manure and fertilizers in agricultural field produce diffuse nitrogen (N) losses that are a major cause of excessive nitrate concentrations in ground and surface waters and have been of concern since decades. Excessive nitrate concentrations in groundwater can have toxic effects when used as drinking water and cause eutrophication in surface waters. For management and environmental planning purposes, it is necessary to assess the magnitude of diffuse N losses from agricultural fields and how they are influenced by factors such as management practices, type of fertilizers -organic or inorganic - climate and soil etc. There are several methods for assessing N leaching, they span from methods based on field test to complex models that require many input data. We use a simple index method that accounts for the type of fertilizer used - inorganic, swine or cattle manure- and hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. Hydrological conditions such as infiltration rates are estimated by a fully distributed hydrological model. Data on inorganic and organic fertilization are estimated at municipal level by using the nutrient crops needs and the statistics of swine and cattle heads within the municipality. The index method has been calibrated by using groundwater concentration as a proxy of N losses from agriculture. A time series of three years of data has been analyzed. The application of the simple index method allowed to

  9. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-01

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany. PMID:26061620

  10. Application of the AERMOD modeling system for environmental impact assessment of NO2 emissions from a cement complex.

    PubMed

    Seangkiatiyuth, Kanyanee; Surapipith, Vanisa; Tantrakarnapa, Kraichat; Lothongkum, Anchaleeporn W

    2011-01-01

    We applied the model of American Meteorological Society-Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) as a tool for the analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from a cement complex as a part of the environmental impact assessment. The dispersion of NO2 from four cement plants within the selected cement complex were investigated both by measurement and AERMOD simulation in dry and wet seasons. Simulated values of NO2 emissions were compared with those obtained during a 7-day continuous measurement campaign at 12 receptors. It was predicted that NO2 concentration peaks were found more within 1 to 5 km, where the measurement and simulation were in good agreement, than at the receptors 5 km further away from the reference point. The Quantile-Quantile plots of NO2 concentrations in dry season were mostly fitted to the middle line compared to those in wet season. This can be attributed to high NO2 wet deposition. The results show that for both the measurement and the simulation using the AERMOD, NO2 concentrations do not exceed the NO2 concentration limit set by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of Thailand. This indicates that NO2 emissions from the cement complex have no significant impact on nearby communities. It can be concluded that the AERMOD can provide useful information to identify high pollution impact areas for the EIA guidelines. PMID:22066216

  11. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  12. Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

    2014-01-15

    The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments. PMID:23968738

  13. Atmospheric dispersion modeling with AERMOD for comparative impact assessment of different pollutant emission sources in an Alpine context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antonacci, Gianluca; Giovannini, Lorenzo; Tomasi, Elena; Zardi, Dino

    2015-04-01

    High-resolution simulations are performed with the AERMOD model to analyze the impact on air quality of different pollutant emission sources in the area surrounding the town of Vipiteno in the northeastern Italian Alps. In this area the environmental burden of pollutant emissions is particularly high because of both its complex terrain and the presence of specific pollutant sources. In this study the effects of the main sources are analyzed and compared: the A22 motorway, which leads to the Brenner pass, the town of Vipiteno, mainly characterized by intensive use of biomass for house heating, three major plants with high emission rates, and a parking lot located near the motorway, offering park spaces for up to 260 trucks and 50 cars. To assess the impact of these pollution sources the AERMOD model is run with a spatial resolution of 25 m and with meteorological input data obtained from different datasets, such as annual series of standard meteorological variables taken from local weather stations and a set of vertical soundings. During the simulations the sources are modeled in different ways depending on the type of the emissions: the motorway is modeled as a linear source, the village as a diffuse source, the local companies as point sources and the parking lot is modeled as a composition of a diffuse source, representing the idling vehicles inside the park, and of a linear source, representing the access routes to the parking. For each type of source, specific emission factors are chosen, and hourly and seasonal emission patterns are set with particular attention to the analysis of idling vehicle emission factors. The results of the simulations are analyzed in terms of NO2 and PM10 and the impact of each source is discussed.

  14. IMPACT fragmentation model developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorge, Marlon E.; Mains, Deanna L.

    2016-09-01

    The IMPACT fragmentation model has been used by The Aerospace Corporation for more than 25 years to analyze orbital altitude explosions and hypervelocity collisions. The model is semi-empirical, combining mass, energy and momentum conservation laws with empirically derived relationships for fragment characteristics such as number, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and spreading velocity as well as event energy distribution. Model results are used for several types of analysis including assessment of short-term risks to satellites from orbital altitude fragmentations, prediction of the long-term evolution of the orbital debris environment and forensic assessments of breakup events. A new version of IMPACT, version 6, has been completed and incorporates a number of advancements enabled by a multi-year long effort to characterize more than 11,000 debris fragments from more than three dozen historical on-orbit breakup events. These events involved a wide range of causes, energies, and fragmenting objects. Special focus was placed on the explosion model, as the majority of events examined were explosions. Revisions were made to the mass distribution used for explosion events, increasing the number of smaller fragments generated. The algorithm for modeling upper stage large fragment generation was updated. A momentum conserving asymmetric spreading velocity distribution algorithm was implemented to better represent sub-catastrophic events. An approach was developed for modeling sub-catastrophic explosions, those where the majority of the parent object remains intact, based on estimated event energy. Finally, significant modifications were made to the area-to-mass ratio distribution to incorporate the tendencies of different materials to fragment into different shapes. This ability enabled better matches between the observed area-to-mass ratios and those generated by the model. It also opened up additional possibilities for post-event analysis of breakups. The paper will discuss

  15. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  16. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  17. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  18. Global Geometric Properties of Martian Impact Craters: An Assessment from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Digital Elevation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garvin, J. B.; Frawley, J. J.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Schnetzler, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global geometric characteristics of topographically fresh impact craters have been assessed, for the first time, from gridded MOLA topography. Global trends of properties such as depth/diameter differ from previous estimates. Regional differences are observed.

  19. Assessment in the Cooperative Classroom: Using an Action Research Enhanced Version of the Train the Trainer In-service Model To Impact Teacher Attitudes and Practices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rolheiser, Carol; Ross, John A.; Hogaboam-Gray, Anne

    This research investigated the impact of combining two approaches to inservice teacher education (action research and train the trainer) on teacher attitudes and practices. The inservice developed assessment approaches aligned with cooperative learning instructional approaches. Teachers were introduced to a model of collaborative assessment aimed…

  20. A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

  1. Assessing the Clinical Impact of Risk Prediction Models With Decision Curves: Guidance for Correct Interpretation and Appropriate Use.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Brown, Marshall D; Zhu, Kehao; Janes, Holly

    2016-07-20

    The decision curve is a graphical summary recently proposed for assessing the potential clinical impact of risk prediction biomarkers or risk models for recommending treatment or intervention. It was applied recently in an article in Journal of Clinical Oncology to measure the impact of using a genomic risk model for deciding on adjuvant radiation therapy for prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. We illustrate the use of decision curves for evaluating clinical- and biomarker-based models for predicting a man's risk of prostate cancer, which could be used to guide the decision to biopsy. Decision curves are grounded in a decision-theoretical framework that accounts for both the benefits of intervention and the costs of intervention to a patient who cannot benefit. Decision curves are thus an improvement over purely mathematical measures of performance such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. However, there are challenges in using and interpreting decision curves appropriately. We caution that decision curves cannot be used to identify the optimal risk threshold for recommending intervention. We discuss the use of decision curves for miscalibrated risk models. Finally, we emphasize that a decision curve shows the performance of a risk model in a population in which every patient has the same expected benefit and cost of intervention. If every patient has a personal benefit and cost, then the curves are not useful. If subpopulations have different benefits and costs, subpopulation-specific decision curves should be used. As a companion to this article, we released an R software package called DecisionCurve for making decision curves and related graphics. PMID:27247223

  2. On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

    2016-04-01

    When aiming higher resolution in dynamical downscaling, which is common trend in CORDEX activities, the effects of land use and land use changes are playing increasing role. This is especially true for the urban areas, which in high resolution can occupy significant part of a single gridbox, if not being even bigger in case of big cities or megacities. Moreover, the role of cities will increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in cities. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been coupled with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), which can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Additionally, the version of land-surface scheme using CLM is tested and effect of the urban environment, which is included in the CLM scheme, will be assessed. Both versions will be compared and validated using EOBS data.

  3. Impacts of cool cities on air quality: A preliminary modeling assessment for Nashville TN, Dallas TX and Atlanta GA

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    1998-06-15

    Previous atmospheric modeling efforts that concentrated on the Los Angeles Basin suggested beneficial and significant air quality impacts from cool cities strategies. This paper discusses an extension of similar modeling efforts to three regions, Atlanta GA, Dallas - Ft. Worth TX, and Nashville TN, that experience smog and air quality problems. According to the older ozone air quality standard (120 ppb), these regions were classified as serious, moderate, and marginal, respectively, but may be out of compliance with respect to the newer, 80-ppb/8-hours standard. Results from this exploratory modeling work suggest a range of possible impacts on meteorological and air quality conditions. For example, peak ozone concentrations during each region's respective episode could be decreased by 1-6 ppb (conservative and optimistic scenarios, respectively) in Nashville, 5-15 ppb in Dallas - Fort Worth, and 5-12 ppb in Atlanta following implementation of cool cities. The reductions are generally smaller than those obtained from simulating the Los Angeles Basin but are still significant. In all regions, the simulations suggest, the net, domain-wide effects of cool cities are reductions in ozone mass and improvements in air quality. In Atlanta, Nashville, and Dallas, urban areas benefiting from reduced smog reach up to 8460, 7350, and 12870 km{sup 2} in area, respectively. Results presented in this paper should be taken as exploratory and preliminary. These will most likely change during a more comprehensive modeling study to be started soon with the support of the US Environmental Protection Agency. The main purpose of the present project was to obtain the initial data (emission inventories) for these regions, simulate meteorological conditions, and perform preliminary sensitivity analysis. In the future, additional regions will be simulated to assess the potential of cool cities in improving urban air quality.

  4. Assessing Impact, DIF, and DFF in Accommodated Item Scores: A Comparison of Multilevel Measurement Model Parameterizations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Cawthon, Stephanie W.; Lockhart, L. Leland; Kaye, Alyssa D.

    2012-01-01

    This pedagogical article is intended to explain the similarities and differences between the parameterizations of two multilevel measurement model (MMM) frameworks. The conventional two-level MMM that includes item indicators and models item scores (Level 1) clustered within examinees (Level 2) and the two-level cross-classified MMM (in which item…

  5. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, A. Md; Solomatine, D. P.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2015-01-01

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (spaceborne or airborne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the light detection and ranging (lidar), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30 to 90 m). On the other hand, the lidar technique is able to produce high-resolution DEMs (at around 1 m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of 1-D hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. To test model selection, the outcomes of the 1-D models were also compared, in terms of flood water levels, to the results of 2-D models (LISFLOOD-FP). The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicate that the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. lidar 1 m) to lower resolution is much less than the loss of model accuracy due

  7. Assessing the impacts of precipitation bias on distributed hydrologic model calibration and prediction accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Looper, Jonathan P.; Vieux, Baxter E.; Moreno, Maria A.

    2012-02-01

    SummaryPhysics-based distributed (PBD) hydrologic models predict runoff throughout a basin using the laws of conservation of mass and momentum, and benefit from more accurate and representative precipitation input. V flo™ is a gridded distributed hydrologic model that predicts runoff and continuously updates soil moisture. As a participating model in the second Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2), V flo™ is applied to the Illinois and Blue River basins in Oklahoma. Model parameters are derived from geospatial data for initial setup, and then adjusted to reproduce the observed flow under continuous time-series simulations and on an event basis. Simulation results demonstrate that certain runoff events are governed by saturation excess processes, while in others, infiltration-rate excess processes dominate. Streamflow prediction accuracy is enhanced when multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) are bias corrected through re-analysis of the MPE provided in the DMIP2 experiment, resulting in gauge-corrected precipitation estimates (GCPE). Model calibration identified a set of parameters that minimized objective functions for errors in runoff volume and instantaneous discharge. Simulated streamflow for the Blue and Illinois River basins, have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients between 0.61 and 0.68, respectively, for the 1996-2002 period using GCPE. The streamflow prediction accuracy improves by 74% in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency when GCPE is used during the calibration period. Without model calibration, excellent agreement between hourly simulated and observed discharge is obtained for the Illinois, whereas in the Blue River, adjustment of parameters affecting both saturation and infiltration-rate excess processes were necessary. During the 1996-2002 period, GCPE input was more important than model calibration for the Blue River, while model calibration proved more important for the Illinois River. During the verification period (2002

  8. Assessing the Impact of Landscape Evolution on Carbon Dynamics: A Coupled Physically-Based Modelling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dialynas, Y. G.; Bastola, S.; Billings, S. A.; Bras, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Soil erosion and deposition play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle, constituting an important driver of atmospheric CO2. Clarification of the net effect of landscape evolution on the C cycle may be achieved using coupled fully-distributed modelling of hydro-geomorphic and biogeochemical processes. We developed a distributed model of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics within an existing coupled physically-based hydro-geomorphic model (tRIBS - Erosion) to simulate the effects of soil erosion and deposition on C dynamics at basin scale. The SOC mass balance is analytically formulated at each cell using temporally variant, continuous vertical profiles of SOC content and SOC production and oxidation rate constants derived from SOC turnover characteristics. Landscape evolution feedbacks on C dynamics include the redistribution of eroded SOC, and the alteration of the SOC production and oxidation throughout the corresponding vertical profiles due to geomorphic perturbations. At each time step, model outputs include lateral and vertical C fluxes, and SOC content, at each soil column. We applied the model to the Calhoun Experimental Forest in South Carolina, which constitutes a forest recovering from agricultural land degradation prior to the mid-20th century. To test performance we carried out a point comparison against a spreadsheet-based model, SOrCERO (Soil Organic Carbon, Erosion, Replacement, and Oxidation) of SOC dynamics, which estimates effects of SOC erosion and altered SOC production and oxidation on CO2 release at an eroding profile. At a point, time integrated results from the two models were comparable. The proposed model has the additional advantage of being able to quantify C sinks and sources across the landscape in a spatially explicit manner, by systematically accounting for topographic controls on C dynamics. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the alteration of SOC production and oxidation due to landscape evolution and management practices

  9. Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2015-10-01

    The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall-runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  10. Modelling and assessment of the impact of radiocesium and radiostrontium contamination in the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece.

    PubMed

    Eleftheriou, G; Monte, L; Brittain, J E; Tsabaris, C

    2015-11-15

    A radiological model for (137)Cs and (90)Sr dispersion in the marine environment of the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece, and the river catchments draining into the Gulf, is presented. The model, developed and implemented within the MOIRA-PLUS decision support system, integrates appropriate site-specific information. The model's performance has been tested using the available empirical (137)Cs activity concentration data in abiotic and biotic components of the gulf since the Chernobyl accident. Further, this paper describes the results of a modelling exercise performed within the IAEA's EMRAS II international modelling programme to estimate the environmental sensitivity of this characteristic Mediterranean coastal marine environment following radioactive contamination. The radiation doses to humans after a single hypothetical instantaneous deposition of 1000 Bq m(-2), assuming that all of their food intake from the marine pathway comes from the local environment, were calculated. The obtained results are consistent with estimates from other models for different coastal marine environments in the frame of the above-mentioned EMRAS exercise. PMID:26151657

  11. Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, A. Md; Solomatine, D. P.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2014-07-01

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (space-borne or air-borne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30-90 m). On the other hand, LiDAR technique is able to produce a high resolution DEMs (around 1m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicates the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. LiDAR 1 m) to lower resolution are much less compared to the loss of model accuracy due to the use of low-cost DEM that have not only a lower resolution, but also a lower quality. Lastly, to better explore the sensitivity of the hydraulic models

  12. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    PubMed

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  13. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  14. A Tool for Low Noise Procedures Design and Community Noise Impact Assessment: The Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conner, David A.; Page, Juliet A.

    2002-01-01

    To improve aircraft noise impact modeling capabilities and to provide a tool to aid in the development of low noise terminal area operations for rotorcraft and tiltrotors, the Rotorcraft Noise Model (RNM) was developed by the NASA Langley Research Center and Wyle Laboratories. RNM is a simulation program that predicts how sound will propagate through the atmosphere and accumulate at receiver locations located on flat ground or varying terrain, for single and multiple vehicle flight operations. At the core of RNM are the vehicle noise sources, input as sound hemispheres. As the vehicle "flies" along its prescribed flight trajectory, the source sound propagation is simulated and accumulated at the receiver locations (single points of interest or multiple grid points) in a systematic time-based manner. These sound signals at the receiver locations may then be analyzed to obtain single event footprints, integrated noise contours, time histories, or numerous other features. RNM may also be used to generate spectral time history data over a ground mesh for the creation of single event sound animation videos. Acoustic properties of the noise source(s) are defined in terms of sound hemispheres that may be obtained from theoretical predictions, wind tunnel experimental results, flight test measurements, or a combination of the three. The sound hemispheres may contain broadband data (source levels as a function of one-third octave band) and pure-tone data (in the form of specific frequency sound pressure levels and phase). A PC executable version of RNM is publicly available and has been adopted by a number of organizations for Environmental Impact Assessment studies of rotorcraft noise. This paper provides a review of the required input data, the theoretical framework of RNM's propagation model and the output results. Code validation results are provided from a NATO helicopter noise flight test as well as a tiltrotor flight test program that used the RNM as a tool to aid in

  15. Integrated snow and hydrology modeling for climate change impact assessment in Oregon Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safeeq, M.; Grant, G.; Lewis, S.; Nolin, A. W.; Hempel, L. A.; Cooper, M.; Tague, C.

    2014-12-01

    In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), increasing temperatures are expected to alter the hydrologic regimes of streams by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and forcing earlier snowmelt. How are such changes likely to affect peak flows across the region? Shifts in peak flows have obvious implications for changing flood risk, but are also likely to affect channel morphology, sediment transport, aquatic habitat, and water quality, issues with potentially high economic and environmental cost. Our goal, then, is to rigorously evaluate sensitivity to potential peak flow changes across the PNW. We address this by developing a detailed representation of snowpack and streamflow evolution under varying climate scenarios using a cascade-modeling approach. We have identified paired watersheds located on the east (Metolius River) and west (McKenzie River) sides of the Cascades, representing dry and wet climatic regimes, respectively. The tributaries of these two rivers are comprised of contrasting hydrologic regimes: surface-runoff dominated western cascades and deep-groundwater dominated high-cascades systems. We use a detailed hydro-ecological model (RHESSys) in conjunction with a spatially distributed snowpack evolution model (SnowModel) to characterize the peak flow behavior under present and future climate. We first calibrated and validated the SnowModel using observed temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent, and manual snow survey data sets. We then employed a multi-objective calibration strategy for RHESSys using the simulated snow accumulation and melt from SnowModel and observed streamflow. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency between observed and simulated streamflow varies between 0.5 in groundwater and 0.71 in surface-runoff dominated systems. The initial results indicate enhanced peak flow under future climate across all basins, but the magnitude of increase varies by the level of snowpack and deep-groundwater contribution in the watershed. Our continuing effort

  16. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  17. Impacts assessment and trade-offs of fuel cell-based auxiliary power units. Part I: System performance and cost modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratto, Francesco; Diwekar, Urmila M.; Manca, Davide

    Auxiliary power units (APUs) are devices that can provide all or part of the non-propulsion power of a vehicle. They do not replace the main internal combustion engine, but they complement it offering low consumption, high comfort and low emissions during the idling periods of the vehicle. This work presents an integrated framework to evaluate the trade-offs between cost effectiveness, efficiency and health and environmental impacts of fuel cell power systems considering various stages of the life cycle of the device. The integrated framework has six main components, namely system level modeling, cost modeling, environmental impact assessment, health impact assessment, life cycle assessment and multi-objective optimization. In part I of these two papers, concerning the integrated framework, the first two components are described and applied to a solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power unit. All the results are validated with experimental data or other published models.

  18. A Mixed-Method Study: Assessing the BAR Model's Impact on Preservice Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rethlefsen, Ann Lyle; Park, Hyesung

    2011-01-01

    This study took place at a mid-sized, Midwestern university located in a mid-sized town. The researchers developed the BAR model to teach mathematics methods both in the classroom and in the field. The preservice teachers took Enochs, Smith, and Huinker's Mathematics Teaching Efficacy Beliefs Instrument (MTEBI) on the first and last day of class.…

  19. IMPACT OF AN UPDATED CARBON BOND MECHANISM ON PREDICTIONS FROM THE CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    An updated and expanded Carbon Bond mechanism (CB05) has been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to more accurately simulate wintertime, pristine, and high altitude situations. The CB05 mechanism has nearly twice the number of reactions compare...

  20. An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulholland, David P.; Spiga, Aymeric; Listowski, Constantino; Read, Peter L.

    2015-05-01

    Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former's climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission 'hotspots': areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently

  1. Efficacy of CBCT for assessment of impacted mandibular third molars: a review – based on a hierarchical model of evidence

    PubMed Central

    Wenzel, A

    2015-01-01

    A radiographic examination of mandibular third molars is meant to support the surgeon in establishing a treatment plan. For years panoramic (PAN) imaging has been the first choice method; however, where an overprojection is observed between the third molar and the mandibular canal and when specific signs suggest a close contact between the molar and the canal, CBCT may be indicated. The present review provides an evaluation of the efficacy of CBCT for assessment of mandibular third molars using a six-tiered hierarchical model by Fryback and Thornbury in 1991. Levels 1–3 include studies on low evidence levels mainly regarding the technical capabilities of a radiographic method and the diagnostic accuracy of the related images. Levels 4–6 include studies on a higher level of evidence and assess the diagnostic impact of a radiographic method on the treatment of the patient in addition to the outcome for the patient and society including cost calculations. Only very few high-evidence studies on the efficacy of CBCT for radiographic examination of mandibular third molars exist and, in conclusion, periapical or PAN examination is sufficient in most cases before removal of mandibular third molars. However, CBCT may be suggested when one or more signs for a close contact between the tooth and the canal are present in the two-dimensional image—if it is believed that CBCT will change the treatment or the treatment outcome for the patient. Further research on high-evidence levels is needed. PMID:25135317

  2. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  3. A multi-model assessment of the impact of sea spray geoengineering on cloud droplet number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Fan, T.; Mann, G. W.; Hill, A.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Tost, H.

    2012-12-01

    Artificially increasing the albedo of marine boundary layer clouds by the mechanical emission of sea spray aerosol has been proposed as a geoengineering technique to slow the warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A previous global model study (Korhonen et al., 2010) found that only modest increases (< 20%) and sometimes even decreases in cloud drop number (CDN) concentrations would result from emission scenarios calculated using a windspeed dependent geoengineering flux parameterisation. Here we extend that work to examine the conditions under which decreases in CDN can occur, and use three independent global models to quantify maximum achievable CDN changes. We find that decreases in CDN can occur when at least three of the following conditions are met: the injected particle number is < 100 cm-3, the injected diameter is > 250-300 nm, the background aerosol loading is large (≥ 150 cm-3) and the in-cloud updraught velocity is low (< 0.2 m s-1). With lower background loadings and/or increased updraught velocity, significant increases in CDN can be achieved. None of the global models predict a decrease in CDN as a result of geoengineering, although there is considerable diversity in the calculated efficiency of geoengineering, which arises from the diversity in the simulated marine aerosol distributions. All three models show a small dependence of geoengineering efficiency on the injected particle size and the geometric standard deviation of the injected mode. However, the achievability of significant cloud drop enhancements is strongly dependent on the cloud updraught speed. With an updraught speed of 0.1 m s-1 a global mean CDN of 375 cm-3 (previously estimated to cancel the forcing caused by CO2 doubling) is achievable in only about 50% of grid boxes which have > 50% cloud cover, irrespective of the amount of aerosol injected. But at stronger updraft speeds (0.2 m s-1), higher values of CDN are achievable due to the elevated in-cloud supersaturations

  4. Assessing the Impact of Data Assimilation on Acoustic Predictions in Operational Global Ocean Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, C. N.; Townsend, T. L.; Smedstad, L. F.; Helber, R. W.; Dastugue, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    Since accurate representation of sound speed is a major objective for operational naval ocean models, metrics focusing on acoustically relevant properties are used to evaluate potential changes to the systems. In particular, planned upgrades to the U.S. navy's operational Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) addressed aspects of the water column significant for predictions of acoustic propagation: mixed-layer depth (MLD), sonic-layer depth (SLD), and below-layer gradient. These properties were only indirectly considered in prior approaches focused on minimizing expected errors in temperature and salinity. The latest global capability, GOFS 2.6, introduces use of MLD-modified synthetic profiles based on vertical projection of satellite sea surface height and temperature as a background for Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) analyses of in-situ data. Evaluation relative to unassimilated in situ observations reveals the continuing progress of successive operational systems. Because of these demonstrated improvements over prior capabilities, forecasts from the Navy Coastal Ocean Model in GOFS 2.6 and higher resolution regional NCOM implementations were announced as the new standard for U.S. Navy Operational Sound Speed Prediction (NOSSP) on 21 Aug. 2008.

  5. Assessing Climatic Impacts due to Land Use Change over Southeast Asian Maritime Continent base on Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, N.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing urbanization, deforestation, and agriculture, land use change over Southeast Asia has dramatically risen during the last decades. Large areas of peat swamp forests over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent region (10°S~20°N and 90°E~135°E) have been cleared for agricultural purposes. The Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land cover classification data show that changes in land use are dominated by conversion of peat swamp forests to oil palm plantation, open lowland or lowland mosaic categories. Nested grid simulations based on Weather Research Forecasting Version 3.6 modelling system (WRFV3.6) over the central region of the Sarawak coast are used to investigate the climatic impacts of land use change over Maritime Continent. Numerical simulations were conducted for August of 2009 for satellite derived land cover scenarios for years 2000 and 2010. The variations in cloud formation, precipitation, and regional radiative and non-radiative parameters on climate results from land use change have been assessed based on numerical simulation results. Modelling studies demonstrate that land use change such as extensive deforestation processes can produce a negative radiative forcing due to the surface albedo increase and evapotranspiration decrease, while also largely caused reduced rainfall and cloud formation, and enhanced shortwave radiative forcing and temperature over the study area. Land use and land cover changes, similar to the domain in this study, has also occurred over other regions in Southeast Asia including Indonesia and could also impact cloud and precipitation formation in these regions.

  6. Health impact assessment in Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Eunjeong; Lee, Youngsoo; Harris, Patrick; Koh, Kwangwook; Kim, Keonyeop

    2011-07-15

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  7. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Land Configuration Changes Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prucha, R. H.; Dayton, C. S.; Hawley, C. M.

    2002-12-01

    The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colorado, a former Department of Energy nuclear weapons manufacturing facility, is currently undergoing closure. The natural semi-arid interaction between surface and subsurface flow at RFETS is complex and complicated by the industrial modifications to the flow system. Using a substantial site data set, a distributed parameter, fully-integrated hydrologic model was developed to assess the hydrologic impact of different hypothetical site closure configurations on the current flow system and to better understand the integrated hydrologic behavior of the system. An integrated model with this level of detail has not been previously developed in a semi-arid area, and a unique, but comprehensive, approach was required to calibrate and validate the model. Several hypothetical scenarios were developed to simulate hydrologic effects of modifying different aspects of the site. For example, some of the simulated modifications included regrading the current land surface, changing the existing surface channel network, removing subsurface trenches and gravity drain flow systems, installing a slurry wall and geotechnical cover, changing the current vegetative cover, and converting existing buildings and pavement to permeable soil areas. The integrated flow model was developed using a rigorous physically-based code so that realistic design parameters can simulate these changes. This code also permitted evaluation of changes to complex integrated hydrologic system responses that included channelized and overland flow, pond levels, unsaturated zone storage, groundwater heads and flow directions, and integrated water balances for key areas. Results generally show that channel flow offsite decreases substantially for different scenarios, while groundwater heads generally increase within the reconfigured industrial area most of which is then discharged as evapotranspiration. These changes have significant implications to

  8. RIFLE: regional impact of facility location on the economy. User's guide, volume 2. Maryland economic, fiscal, and social impact assessment model

    SciTech Connect

    Holland, P.D.; Harms, P.L.

    1983-02-01

    This user's guide describes the non-computerized models in the RIFLE (Regional Impact of Facility Location on the Economy) system. The RIFLE system consists of seven computerized models and three non-computerized models which can be used to analyze the economic, demographic, and fiscal impacts of major facilities upon the counties in which they are located and adjacent counties. Volume II describes the non-computerized models in the RIFLE system. These models represent an alternative approach to estimating costs of providing government services to in-migrating households.

  9. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  10. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karlson, Mårten Mörtberg, Ulla Balfors, Berit

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  11. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (videotape)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Originally developed for the US EPA Regions, this presentation is available to the general public via the internet. The presentation focuses on the basics of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) including the ISO 14040 series framework and a quick overview of each of the steps wi...

  12. The potential and limitations of utilising head impact injury models to assess the likelihood of significant head injury in infants after a fall.

    PubMed

    Cory, C Z; Jones, M D; James, D S; Leadbeatter, S; Nokes, L D

    2001-12-01

    The use of engineering principles in assessing head injury scenarios is of increasing significance in investigations into suspected child abuse. A fall scenario is often given as the history for a head injury to an infant. This paper addresses the basic engineering principles and factors to be considered when calculating the severity of a head impact after free-fall. The application of head injury models (HIMs) to ascertain the forces involved in childhood head injuries from impact is also discussed. Previous studies including Duhaime et al. [J. Neurosurg. 66 (1987) 409] and Nokes et al. [Forensic Sci. Int. 79 (1995) 85] have utilised HIMs for this purpose: this paper reviews those models most widely documented.The HIM currently considered the 'state-of-the-art' is the head injury criterion (HIC) and it is suggested that this model should be utilised for assessing head impact injury in child abuse cases where appropriate. PMID:11728733

  13. Multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge in three different regional scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, Tobias; Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Aich, Valentin; Yang, Tao

    2014-05-01

    Projections of climate impacts should be provided at the regional scale using validated regional-scale models in order to supply more reliable results for decision makers and managers. In the last decade climate impact assessment was performed for different regions and sectors using different scenarios and tools. However, the results are hardly comparable and do not allow to create a full picture of impacts and to evaluate their robustness. This study aims at comparing climate impacts on seasonal water discharge as well as on trends in projected discharge quantiles. Uncertainties from different sources are evaluated. The intercomparison of impacts was done for three regions on three continents which are characterized by very different climate and land use conditions: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow River in Asia. The climate impact assessment was performed using scenarios from five General Climate Models (GCMs). The bias-corrected climate scenarios for this study were provided by the ISI-MIP project. The following GCMs were used: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5ALR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M. The hydrological impact assessment was conducted applying the hydrological impact models HBV, SWIM and VIC. Our results suggest that the five GCMs contribute more to overall uncertainty of river discharge than the three hydrological models. Projected trends in river discharge are more variable and more often contradictory when different GCMs are compared. However, we also found significant opposite trend direction for projected river discharge using different hydrological models but the same climate input data.

  14. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    PubMed

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. PMID:26196068

  15. WEPPCAT: An Online tool for assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on sediment loading to streams using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    WEPPCAT is an on-line tool that provides a flexible capability for creating user-determined climate change scenarios for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on sediment loading to streams using the USDA’s Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model. In combination...

  16. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    PubMed

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. PMID:22742772

  17. U.S./CANADA AQUATIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT: INTEGRATION OF EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES, MONITORING AND MODELING OF ACIDIC DEPOSITION EFFECTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessments of pollutant effects on living organisms usually have used dose-response relationships (models) based on data for one pollutant and one species at a time, for a relatively short period of exposure, under relatively controlled conditions. For the assessment planned und...

  18. Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, Giulio; Leone, Mattia Federico; Del Cogliano, Davide; Sgroi, Angelo

    2013-10-01

    PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II has developed a methodology that aims to estimate, in probabilistic terms, the direct and the indirect economic impacts of a Sub-Plinian I or Strombolian type eruption of Vesuvius. The economic model has been implemented as a complementary tool of the Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a tool developed at PLINIVS Center available to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) decision makers to quantify the potential losses consequent to a possible eruption of Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei. Along the expected time history of the eruptive event all the possible "direct costs" and the "factors" (indirect costs) impacting the economic growth in the event area have been identified. Each cost factor is built up through a specific algorithm that is fed by various providers, in order to run software that will estimate the global amount of economic damage from a volcanic event. The model does not include the economic evaluation of intangibles (e.g. human casualties), while the evaluation of damage to the local cultural heritage (historical buildings, archeological sites, monuments, etc.), is linked to the economic impact on tourism, estimated into indirect costs. The architecture of the model is based on a simulation logic, which allows an evaluation of different economic impact scenarios through input changes, allowing the model to be used as a tool to support the decision making process.

  19. Use of the AGNPS model to assess impacts of development and best management practices in an urban watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) is an invaluable tool in the estimation of land use changes and spatial variability in urban areas. (Non-Point Source (NPS) models provide hypothetical opportunities to assess impacts which storm water management strategies and land use changes have on watersheds by predicting loadings on a watershed scale. This study establishes a methodology for analyzing land use changes and management associated with them by utilizing a GIS analysis of impervious surfaces and AGricultural Non- Point Source (AGNPS) modeling. The GIS analysis of Total Impervious Area (TIA) was used to quantify increases in development and provided land use data for use in AGNPS modeling in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. AGNPS modeling was executed in several different scenarios to predict changes in NPS loadings associated with increases in TIA and its subsequent management in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. Data editing, creation and extracting was completed using ArcView (3.2) GeoMedia (6) GIS systems. The GIS analysis quantified the increase in urbanization via TIA within the Bluebonnet Swamp Watershed (BSW) in East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP), Louisiana. The BSW had significant increases in urbanization in the 8 year time span of 1996 2004 causing and increase in quantity and decrease in quality of subsequent runoff. Datasets made available from the GIS analysis included TIA and the change in percentage from 1996 to 2004. This information is fundamental for the AGNPS model because it was used to calculate TIA percentages within each AGNPS cell. A 30 year daily climate file was used to execute AGNPS in different land use and storm water management scenarios within the 1100 acre BSW. Runoff qualities and quantities were then compared for different periods of 1996 and 2004. Predictions of sediment, erosion and runoff were compared according by scenario year. Management practices were also simulated by changing the Runoff

  20. The Impact of Model Misspecification on Parameter Estimation and Item-Fit Assessment in Log-Linear Diagnostic Classification Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kunina-Habenicht, Olga; Rupp, Andre A.; Wilhelm, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Using a complex simulation study we investigated parameter recovery, classification accuracy, and performance of two item-fit statistics for correct and misspecified diagnostic classification models within a log-linear modeling framework. The basic manipulated test design factors included the number of respondents (1,000 vs. 10,000), attributes (3…

  1. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat

  2. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  3. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  4. Comparative analysis of two hydrological models with different glacier parameterisations for climate impact assessment and water resources management in the Syrdarya Basin, Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gafurov, Abror; Duethmann, Doris; Agaltseva, Natalya; Merkushkin, Alexander; Pak, Alexander; Kriegel, David; Huss, Matthias; Güntner, Andreas; Merz, Bruno; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Mannig, Birgit; Paeth, Heiko; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2014-05-01

    Central Asian river basins in general and zones of run-off formation in particular are currently experiencing the impact of increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation. The headwaters thus exhibit negative glacier mass balances, decreasing glacierisation, changes in snow cover characteristics and changing runoff response. These changes are likely to intensify in future under the changing climate. Both hydropower industry and irrigated agriculture in the downstream areas strongly depend on the water amount, its seasonal and long-term distribution. This fact calls for an effort to reliably assess water availability in the runoff formation zone of Central Asia in order to improve water management policy in the region. One of the approaches to assessment of water resources is the evaluation of climate scenarios with the climate-and-hydrology model chain. Application of several models allows reducing the modeling uncertainty and proceeding with more robust water balance components assessment. We present the comparison of the two hydrological models AISHF (Automated Information System for Hydrological Forecasting) developed at the Centre for Hydrometeorology of Uzbekistan and WASA run at GFZ Potsdam, implemented for the Naryn and Karadarya basins (Syrdarya). These models use different parameterization and calibration schemes. Whereas in the AISHF model glacier dynamics is considered in scenarios of glacier area loss, the WASA model simulates continuous glacier mass balance, glacier area and volume evolution based on meteorological drivers. Consideration of initial glacier volume and its temporal dynamics can be essential for climate impact assessment in transient model simulations. The impact of climate change scenarios, developed with the regional climate model REMO at the University of Würzburg, are compared with respect to total discharge dynamics and runoff contributions from glacier, snowmelt and rainfall. Implications of water availability assessment

  5. Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission: Kinetic impactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Michel, P.; Jutzi, M.; Rivkin, A. S.; Stickle, A.; Barnouin, O.; Ernst, C.; Atchison, J.; Pravec, P.; Richardson, D. C.

    2016-02-01

    The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation by using a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid. AIDA is an international cooperation, consisting of two mission elements: the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission and the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) rendezvous mission. The primary goals of AIDA are (i) to test our ability to perform a spacecraft impact on a potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid and (ii) to measure and characterize the deflection caused by the impact. The AIDA target will be the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos, with the deflection experiment to occur in late September, 2022. The DART impact on the secondary member of the binary at ~7 km/s is expected to alter the binary orbit period by about 4 minutes, assuming a simple transfer of momentum to the target, and this period change will be measured by Earth-based observatories. The AIM spacecraft will characterize the asteroid target and monitor results of the impact in situ at Didymos. The DART mission is a full-scale kinetic impact to deflect a 150 m diameter asteroid, with known impactor conditions and with target physical properties characterized by the AIM mission. Predictions for the momentum transfer efficiency of kinetic impacts are given for several possible target types of different porosities, using Housen and Holsapple (2011) crater scaling model for impact ejecta mass and velocity distributions. Results are compared to numerical simulation results using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code of Jutzi and Michel (2014) with good agreement. The model also predicts that the ejecta from the DART impact may make Didymos into an active asteroid, forming an ejecta coma that may be observable from Earth-based telescopes. The measurements from AIDA of the momentum transfer from the DART impact, the crater size and morphology, and the evolution of an ejecta coma will

  6. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  7. A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter data set for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S.-C.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Tootle, G.

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic data set with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation - including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation - were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous US at refined 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter data set was prepared for the macro-scale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by Daymet daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against US Geological Survey (USGS) WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter data set may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous US. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter data set, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter data set will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  8. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  9. Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

    2010-08-01

    In this report we describe the 1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and 2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

  10. Using Computational Modeling to Assess the Impact of Clinical Decision Support on Cancer Screening within Community Health Centers

    PubMed Central

    Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M.; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman’s Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability. PMID:24953241

  11. Model-based Impact Assessment of an Integrated Water Management Strategy on Ecosystem Services relevant to Food Security in Namibia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luetkemeier, R.; Liehr, S.

    2012-04-01

    North-central Namibia is characterized by seasonal alterations of drought and heavy rainfall, mostly saline groundwater resources and a lack of perennial rivers. Water scarcity poses a great challenge for freshwater supply, harvest and food security against the background of high population growth and climate change. CuveWaters project aims at poverty reduction and livelihood improvement on a long term basis by introducing a multi-resource-mix as part of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach. Herein, creating water buffers by rainwater harvesting (RWH) and subsurface water storage as well as reuse of treated wastewater facilitates micro-scale gardening activities. This link constitutes a major component of a sustainable adaptation strategy by contributing to the conservation and improvement of basic food and freshwater resources in order to reduce drought vulnerability. This paper presents main findings of an impact assessment carried out on the effect of integrated water resources management on ecosystem services (ESS) relevant to food security within the framework of CuveWaters project. North-central Namibia is perceived as a social-ecological system characterized by a strong mutual dependence between natural environment and anthropogenic system. This fundamental reliance on natural resources highlights the key role of ESS in semi-arid environments to sustain human livelihoods. Among other services, food provision was chosen for quantification as one of the most fundamental ESS in north-central Namibia. Different nutritional values were utilized as indicators to adopt a demand-supply approach (Ecosystem Service Profile) to illustrate the ability of the ecosystem to meet people's nutritional requirements. Calculations have been conducted using both Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty introduced by the variability of monthly precipitation and the application of plant specific water production functions. Results show that improving the

  12. Tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the ALDES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.

    2012-04-01

    The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The

  13. Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spaulding, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

  14. A coupled modeling approach to assess the impact of fuel treatments on post-wildfire runoff and erosion

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The hydrological consequences of wildfires are some of the most significant and long-lasting effects. Since wildfire severity impacts post-fire hydrological response, fuel treatments can be a useful tool for land managers to moderate this response. However, current models focus on only one aspect of...

  15. The Impact Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClure, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    According to the author, teachers must give their students the ability to assess past, present, and new technologies, while making them aware that there is always a price to pay for any new technology. Students need to acquire the ability to make critical decisions about the world they live in and the technologies that will impact their lives. In…

  16. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  17. Developing perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewitson, Bruce

    Following the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report [TAR; IPCC, 2001], and the paucity of climate change impact assessments from developing nations, there has been a significant growth in activities to redress this shortcoming. However, undertaking impact assessments (in relation to malaria, crop stress, regional water supply, etc.) is contingent on available climate-scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional issues of importance. These scales are commonly far finer than even the native resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) (the principal tools for climate change research), let alone the skillful resolution (scales of aggregation at which GCM observational error is acceptable for a given application) of GCMs.Consequently, there is a growing demand for regional-scale scenarios, which in turn are reliant on techniques to downscale from GCMs, such as empirical downscaling or nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These methods require significant skill, experiential knowledge, and computational infrastructure in order to derive credible regional-scale scenarios. In contrast, it is often the case that impact assessment researchers in developing nations have inadequate resources with limited access to scientists in the broader international scientific community who have the time and expertise to assist. However, where developing effective downscaled scenarios is problematic, it is possible that much useful information can still be obtained for impact assessments by examining the system sensitivity to largerscale climate perturbations. Consequently, one may argue that the early phase of assessing sensitivity and vulnerability should first be characterized by evaluation of the first-order impacts, rather than immediately addressing the finer, secondary factors that are dependant on scenarios derived through downscaling.

  18. A comparison of methods for the assessment of odor impacts on air quality: Field inspection (VDI 3940) and the air dispersion model CALPUFF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranzato, Laura; Barausse, Alberto; Mantovani, Alice; Pittarello, Alberto; Benzo, Maurizio; Palmeri, Luca

    2012-12-01

    Unpleasant odors are a major cause of public complaints concerning air quality and represent a growing social problem in industrialized countries. However, the assessment of odor pollution is still regarded as a difficult task, because olfactory nuisance can be caused by many different chemical compounds, often found in hard-to-detect concentrations, and the perception of odors is influenced by subjective thresholds; moreover, the impact of odor sources on air quality is mediated by complex atmospheric dispersion processes. The development of standardized assessment approaches to odor pollution and proper international regulatory tools are urgently needed. In particular, comparisons of the methodologies commonly used nowadays to assess odor impacts on air quality are required. Here, we assess the olfactory nuisance caused by an anaerobic treatment plant for municipal solid waste by means of two alternative techniques: the field inspection procedure and the atmospheric dispersion model CALPUFF. Our goal was to compare rigorously their estimates of odor nuisance, both qualitatively (spatial extent of odor impact) and quantitatively (intensity of odor nuisance). To define the impact of odors, we referred to the German standards, based on the frequency of odor episodes in terms of odor hours. We report a satisfying, although not perfect agreement between the estimates provided by the two techniques. For example, they assessed similar spatial extents of odor pollution, but different frequencies of odor episodes in locations where the odor nuisance was highest. The comparison highlights strengths and weaknesses for both approaches. CALPUFF is a cheaper methodology which can be used predictively, but fugitive emissions are difficult to model reliably, because of uncertainty regarding timing, location and emission rate. Field inspection takes into account the role of human perception, but unlike the model it does not always characterize precisely the extent of the odor

  19. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

  20. A multi-metric global source-receptor model for integrated impact assessment of climate and air quality policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Leitao, Joana; Dentener, Frank

    2014-05-01

    As a response to emerging needs for swift and integrated evaluation of air quality and climate policy scenarios at the regional and global scale, the European Commission Joint Research Centre has developed the 'Fast Scenario Screening Tool TM5-FASST'. TM5-FASST is a global simplified source-receptor model, calculating various air quality and climate impacts resulting from emissions of short-lived air pollutants and methane. TM5-FASST makes use of semi-linear relations expressing the sensitivity of pollutant concentrations in any receptor location of the globe to a change in pollutant emissions in any source region. The tool operates with 56 pre-defined source areas, defined as countries or country clusters. The source-receptor sensitivity matrices were calculated with the global chemical transport model TM5 by applying a 20% emission perturbation on year 2000 emissions for each of the 56 source regions, and for all relevant air pollutants. The model evaluates metrics relevant for health impacts (pollutant concentrations, premature mortalities from exposure to PM2.5 and O3), for vegetation and ecosystems (AOT40 and seasonal mean daytime O3, N and S deposition), as well as climate-relevant metrics of relevant short-lived climate pollutants (instantaneous forcing, AGWP and AGTP for various time horizons, black carbon deposition to snow surface). Climate metrics include short term impacts of O3 precursors (i.e. the direct formation of O3 as a greenhouse gas), as well as long-term effects on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere with impacts on the methane lifetime and background O3. It is a strong feature of the model that all impacts, both air quality and climate related, are calculated from the same set of underlying pollutant concentration fields, and hence are internally consistent with respect to impact categories and with respect to geographical coverage. Here we will present in more detail the methodologies used in TM5-FASST, demonstrate its validity and

  1. U.S./CANADA AQUATIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT: INTEGRATION OF EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES, MONITORING AND MODELING OF ACID DEPOSITION EFFECTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessments of pollutant effects on living organisms usually have used dose-response relationships (models) based on data for one pollutant and one species at a time, for a relatively short period of exposure, under relatively controlled conditions. Such studies are necessary, bu...

  2. Assessment of the Impact of the Spatial Distribution of Isolated and Riparian Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology using a Mathematical Modelling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fossey, M.; Rousseau, A. N.; Savary, S.; Royer, A.

    2014-12-01

    Wetlands play a significant role on the hydrological cycle, reducing peak flows through water storage functions and sustaining low flows through slow release of water. However, their impacts on water resource availability and flood control are mainly driven by wetland types and locations within a watershed. So, despite the general agreement about these major hydrological functions, little is known about their spatial and typological influences. Consequently, assessing the quantitative impact of wetlands on hydrological regimes has become a relevant issue for both the scientific community and the decision-maker community. To investigate the hydrologic response at the watershed scale, mathematical modelling has been a well-accepted framework. Specific isolated and riparian wetland modules were implemented in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL distributed hydrological modelling platform to assess the impact of the spatial distribution of isolated and riparian wetlands on the stream flows of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada. More specifically, the focus was on assessing whether stream flow parameters, including peak flow, low flow and flow volume, were related to: (i) the percentage and the distribution of wetlands in the watershed, (ii) geographic location of wetlands, and (iii) seasons. Preliminary results suggest that: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly improve HYDROTEL's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) isolated and riparian wetlands have individual space- and time-dependent impacts on the hydrologic response of the study watershed.

  3. A management tool for assessing aquaculture environmental impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: integrating hydrodynamic and pellets dispersion models.

    PubMed

    Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H; Campuzano, Francisco J

    2010-05-01

    This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations. PMID:20333379

  4. A Management Tool for Assessing Aquaculture Environmental Impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: Integrating Hydrodynamic and Pellets Dispersion Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H.; Campuzano, Francisco J.

    2010-05-01

    This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations.

  5. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  6. Incorporating social concerns in environmental impact assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Wolfe, A.K.

    1990-03-01

    Social impact assessments most often focus on the population-driven impacts of projects. Such impacts may be insignificant when compared with social structural impacts of complex, controversial projects. This set of impacts includes social disruption, social group formation, and stigma effects. The National Environmental Policy Act does not explicitly call for assessment of, and assessors often are reluctant to address, these complex issues. This paper discusses why such impacts are critical to assess and gives examples of how they have been incorporated into environmental assessment documents. 6 refs.

  7. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Columbia River Basin Agriculture through Integrated Crop Systems, Hydrologic, and Water Management Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Kruger, C.; Yoder, J.; Marsh, T.

    2011-12-01

    The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest covers parts of US and Canada with a total drainage area of about 670,000 square kilometers. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of Columbia River water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area in the CRB. Agriculture is an important component of the economy in the region, with an annual value over $5 billion in Washington State alone. The availability of surface water for irrigation in the basin is expected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Previous climate change studies in the CRB region suggest a likelihood of increasing temperatures and a shift in precipitation patterns, with precipitation higher in the winter and lower in the summer. Warming further exacerbates summer water availability in many CRB tributaries as they shift from snowmelt-dominant towards rain-dominant hydrologic regimes. The goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on CRB water availability and agricultural production in the expectation that curtailment will occur more frequently in an altered climate. Towards this goal it is essential that we understand the interactions between crop-growth dynamics, climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, water management, and agricultural economy. To study these interactions at the regional scale, we use the newly developed crop-hydrology model VIC-CropSyst, which integrates a crop growth model CropSyst with the hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). Simulation of future climate by VIC-CropSyst captures the socio-economic aspects of this system through economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on crop patterns. This integrated framework (submitted as a separate paper) is linked to a reservoir operations simulations model, Colsim. ColSim is modified to explicitly account for agricultural withdrawals. Washington State water

  8. Assessing the impact of climate variability on phosphorus transport in the Cannonsville Watershed using the SWAT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodbury, J.; Shoemaker, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of climate variability on phosphorus transport in the mostly forested and agricultural Cannonsville watershed in Upstate New York. Different climate scenarios are studied in order to better understand the possible changes in seasonal phosphorus loading to the reservoir, which is an important source of drinking water for New York City residents. The study is carried out using a calibrated SWAT 2005 model along with a weather generator created specifically for the watershed. The study includes two parts. The first part investigates the historical trends in phosphorus loading. This is done by using climate data from the mid 1960s to the present day with the SWAT model. The results show that over time the phosphorus loading to the reservoir is increasing, with most of this increase occurring in the spring, summer and fall. This is worrisome since climate change is likely to make these seasons longer. The second part of the study investigates the impact of different climate scenarios under the same watershed conditions as the first part of the study. This is done in order to understand the changes in timing as well as the amount of phosphorus loading to the reservoir. The study also investigates the changes in crop growth, in terms of timing and magnitude. Since the watershed is mostly forest and agricultural land, the impact of warmer or colder climates is quite apparent. All model outputs are investigated on a yearly, as well as a seasonal basis since climate change is likely to impact seasons differently. The results show significant changes in phosphorus loading due to different climate scenarios. This shows that any type of phosphorus management planning for the future needs to include the possible uncertainty associated with changing climates.

  9. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Baethgen, W.E.; Magrin, G.O.

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  10. Assessing the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact of Land Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model and the World Wide Web

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, B.; Engel, B.; Harbor, J.; Jones, D.; Lim, K.J.

    1999-09-22

    Assessment of the long-term hydrologic impacts of land use change is important for optimizing management practices to control runoff and non-point source (NPS) pollution associated with watershed development. Land use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, can have a significant impact on water resources. Non-point source (NPS) pollution is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the US and urban areas are an important source of NPS pollution. Despite widespread concern over the environmental impacts of land use changes such as urban sprawl, most planners, government agencies and consultants lack access to simple impact-assessment tools that can be used with readily available data. Before investing in sophisticated analyses and customized data collection, it is desirable to be able to run initial screening analyses using data that are already available. In response to this need, we developed a long-term hydrologic impact assessment technique (L-THIA) using the popular Curve Number (CN) method that makes use of basic land use, soils and long-term rainfall data. Initially developed as a spreadsheet application, the technique allows a user to compare the hydrologic impacts of past, present and any future land use change. Consequently, a NPS pollution module was incorporated to develop the L-THWNPS model. Long-term daily rainfall records are used in combination with soils and land use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. Because of the geospatial nature of land use and soils data, and the increasingly widespread use of GE by planners, government agencies and consultants, the model is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) that allows convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and provides advanced visualization of the model results. Manipulation of the land use layer, or provision of multiple land use layers (for different scenarios), allows for rapid and

  11. An approach to integrate impact scoping with environmental impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, Alan J.; Ross, William A.

    1992-07-01

    Impact scoping is the process of identifying important issues of a proposal and focusing the environmental impact assessment (EIA) on the high-priority issues. Although impact scoping in one form or another has been inherent to EIA for some time, documentation of its development and discussion of refinements to impact scoping processes have not been forthcoming. This article traces the development of impact scoping through time and highlights the need for such processes in EIA. A focused environmental assessment (FEA) approach to impact scoping that is suitable for implementation in an EIA is presented here and advantages of its use are delineated. FEA is a three-staged process that encourages impact scoping through progressive steps including impact identification, assessment and management planning. FEA combines a suite of EIA methods including: issues matrices, impact hypotheses, valued ecosystem components, and stakeholder participation sessions to effectively integrate impact scoping with EIA.

  12. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods. PMID:27209791

  13. Age and sex structured model for assessing the demographic impact of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Mukandavire, Z; Garira, W

    2007-08-01

    Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0-14 years) and adults (15-49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number ([Symbol: see text](0)) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe. PMID:17453306

  14. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  15. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viney, Neil R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G. W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-02-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  16. Application of the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to Fishery Resource Issues in the Klamath River, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Sharon G.; Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John

    2010-01-01

    At the request of two offices of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) located in Yreka and Arcata, Calif., we applied the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM) to analyze a variety of water management concerns associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing of the Klamath hydropower projects or with ongoing management of anadromous fish stocks in the mainstem Klamath River, Oregon and California. Requested SIAM analyses include predicted effects of reservoir withdrawal elevations, use of full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoirs to augment spring flows, and predicted spawning and juvenile outmigration timing of fall Chinook salmon. In an effort to further refine the analysis of spring flow effects on predicted fall Chinook production, additional SIAM analyses were performed for predicted response to spring flow release variability from Iron Gate Dam, high and low pulse flow releases, the predicted effects of operational constraints for both Upper Klamath Lake water surface elevations, and projected flow releases specified in the Klamath Project 2006 Operations Plan (April 10, 2006). Results of SIAM simulations to determine flow and water temperature relationships indicate that up to 4 degrees C of thermal variability can be attributed to flow variations, but the effect is seasonal. Much more of thermal variability can be attributed to air temperature variations, up to 6 degrees C. Reservoirs affect the annual thermal signature by delaying spring warming by about 3 weeks and fall cooling by about 2 weeks. Multi-level release outlets on Iron Gate Dam would have limited utility; however, if releases are small (700 cfs) and a near-surface and bottom-level outlet could be blended, then water temperature may be reduced by 2-4 degrees C for a 4-week period during September. Using the full active storage in Copco and Iron Gate Reservoir, although feasible, had undesirable ramifications such as earlier spring warming, loss of

  17. Impact assessment of PM10 cement plants emissions on urban air quality using the SCIPUFF dispersion model.

    PubMed

    Leone, Vincenzo; Cervone, Guido; Iovino, Pasquale

    2016-09-01

    The Second-order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) model was used to study the impact on urban air quality caused by two cement plants emissions located near the city of Caserta, Italy, during the entire year of 2015. The simulated and observed PM10 concentrations were compared using three monitoring stations located in urban and sub-urban area of Caserta city. Both simulated and observed concentrations are shown to be highest in winter, lower in autumn and spring and lowest in summer. Model results generally follow the pattern of the observed concentrations but have a systematic under-prediction of the concentration values. Measures of the bias, NMSE and RMSE indicate a good correlation between observed and estimated values. The SCIPUFF model data analysis suggest that the cement plants are major sources for the measured PM10 values and are responsible for the deterioration of the urban air quality in the city of Caserta. PMID:27485615

  18. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  19. Noise impact on wildlife: An environmental impact assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bender, A.

    1977-01-01

    Various biological effects of noise on animals are discussed and a systematic approach for an impact assessment is developed. Further research is suggested to fully quantify noise impact on the species and its ecosystem.

  20. An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2014-10-01

    The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall-runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  1. Assessing the impacts of tillage and fertilization management on nitrous oxide emissions in a cornfield using the DNDC model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Qi; Hui, Dafeng; Wang, Junming; Yu, Chih-Li; Li, Changsheng; Reddy, K. Chandra; Dennis, Sam

    2016-02-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands under different agricultural management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage,and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods (i.e., nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure, and split applications) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, Tennessee, under various agricultural management treatments and run for a short term (3 years) and a long term (100 years). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil properties under different agricultural management practices. The modeled emissions of N2O significantly increased by 35% with tillage, and decreased by 24% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emission in a short term, but over a long term (100 years) the treatments significantly altered N2O emission (+35%, -10%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emission was sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining agricultural best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Assessment of mineral concentration impacts from pumped stormwater on an Everglades Wetland, Florida, USA - Using a spatially-explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chunfang; Meselhe, Ehab; Waldon, Michael

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) overlays a 58,725 ha remnant of the Northern Everglades which is termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1). The Refuge is impacted by stormwater inflow from flood control pump stations which discharge to a perimeter canal system inside an impounding levee. These discharges contain elevated mineral and nutrient concentrations, with chloride concentration averaging well over 100 mg/L. It has long been established that the Refuge naturally has low mineral content softwater, and that this low-mineral condition affects the species composition of wetland periphyton that are at the base of much of the Refuge food chain. The interior marsh of the Refuge has today been termed rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic, with median chloride concentration averaging 20.5 mg/L. However, chloride concentration in rain water averages roughly 2 mg/L. The level of impact of exogenous pumped inflow on the concentration of chloride and other mineral constituents in the interior marsh has been unclear, and at times it has been debated whether atmospheric loading and evaporation can alone explain observed concentration of chloride in the interior. We applied a spatially explicit hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, MIKE FLOOD, to estimate the unimpacted condition of the interior. We compare this with simulated and monitored chloride concentrations under current conditions. The model was calibrated for a 5-year period (2000-2004), and validated for a 2-year period (2005-2006). We found that when pumped inflow concentration is reduced to an estimated rainfall chloride concentration, interior chloride concentration ranges typically below 5 mg/L. We therefore conclude that the interior chloride concentration is currently dominated by pumped inflows and should not be termed ombrotrophic. We also present initial modeling of one proposed remedial solution for reducing this impact. Our study demonstrates the feasibility

  3. Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

    PubMed

    Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

    2009-05-01

    HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable. PMID:19534136

  4. RETHINKING HUMAN HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT. (R825758)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Most EIA programs around the world require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This article examines how, why, and to what extent health impacts are analyzed in environmental impact assessments in the U.S. ...

  5. Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG

  6. A process-based model of soil structure to assess the impact of biological agents, climate and reduced tillage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Couteulx, Alexis; Pérès, Guénola; Wolf, Cédric; Hallaire, Vincent

    2014-05-01

    Soil structure can be defined as the spatial arrangement of voids and solids in soil. It is a dynamic soil property due to agents' activity such as (i) mechanical action of soil tillage (ii) earthworms through their burrowing activity and faeces production and (iii) climate impact due to rain or temperature. Soil structure is often studied because of its impacts on soil functional properties, e.g. water percolation, soil water conductivity. In a context of farming practices shift towards non-ploughing techniques, it is needed to evaluate impacts on soil structure and consequently on its functional properties. Existing models have adopted two strategies to simulate soil structure: (i) to use of measured parameters to adjust a theoretical model or (ii) to build a soil structure by simulating processes that are its base. The first strategy does not deal with the difficulty to access soil structure by itself because input measured parameters are needed. The second one starts from either a virgin structure or a structure coming from strategy (i). This starting structure is then altered according to one structuring agent. At present, there is a need for such dynamic models of soil structure. They must be explicit (3D) and common for a large set of structuring agents too. They must also deal with several issues: e.g. to memorize the many voids and solids building up the soil structure or the need to be fast enough to simulate soil structure dynamics for a month, a year, etc. A first proposal, based on the strong assumption that soil is fractal, was made by Marilleau et al. (2008). In our model three structuring agents were chosen: tillage, earthworm's activity and solid particles settlement due to climate. It first focuses on the building of a computerized soil structure which is a common base to simulate the agents. It aims at being as generic as possible by using an object-oriented structure. The concept of voxel is used to split the soil into elementary units and each

  7. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O`Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area.

  8. An assessment of the long-term environmental impacts of reusing alkaline clay on coal refuse piles with a dynamic solute transport model at a watershed scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Liang, X.; Davis, T. W.; Patterson, J.; Jaw, F. K.; Koranchie-Boah, P.

    2011-12-01

    Coal refuse piles play a significant role in producing acid mining drainage (AMD) that deteriorates water quality at a watershed scale. The waste produced from coal refuse piles results in a decrease of the pH value in soil water and river flow. Metal compounds, such as ferric and ferrous solutions, are also continuously released from the coal pile due to the extensive and complicated chemical reactions in the acidic environment. Alkaline clay, a byproduct of alumina refining process, has a high residual pH in the material. If the alkaline clay is used innovatively with the coal mine refuse, the problems associated with each (e.g., high and low pH values) are likely to be effectively resolved. In addition, the solubility of the sulfur and iron will be reduced significantly. This will effectively eliminate the AMD problem at the coal refuse pile and improve the water quality at the watershed scale. This study investigates the long-term impacts of the combined mixture (i.e., alkaline clay + coal refuse) on the environment (e.g., in the soil column and in the river system) through systematic modeling simulations in a combination with field measurements. In particular, a dynamic solute transport model that accounts for processes of the pyrite oxidation, oxygen diffusion, absorption, desorption, and advection is developed and is coupled with the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to assess the environmental impacts at the watershed scale. The model-simulated sulfur and iron concentrations are compared with field observations and the long-term impacts of the combined mixture (i.e., alkaline clay + coal refuse) on the environment are investigated. This study paves the way for monitoring and assessing the impacts of the reuse of the alkaline clay and refuse mixture on the environment at a watershed scale.

  9. Geospatial analysis of spaceborne remote sensing data for assessing disaster impacts and modeling surface runoff in the built-environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wodajo, Bikila Teklu

    Every year, coastal disasters such as hurricanes and floods claim hundreds of lives and severely damage homes, businesses, and lifeline infrastructure. This research was motivated by the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster, which devastated the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The primary objective was to develop a geospatial decision-support system for extracting built-up surfaces and estimating disaster impacts using spaceborne remote sensing satellite imagery. Pre-Katrina 1-m Ikonos imagery of a 5km x 10km area of Gulfport, Mississippi, was used as source data to develop the built-up area and natural surfaces or BANS classification methodology. Autocorrelation of 0.6 or higher values related to spectral reflectance values of groundtruth pixels were used to select spectral bands and establish the BANS decision criteria of unique ranges of reflectance values. Surface classification results using GeoMedia Pro geospatial analysis for Gulfport sample areas, based on BANS criteria and manually drawn polygons, were within +/-7% of the groundtruth. The difference between the BANS results and the groundtruth was statistically not significant. BANS is a significant improvement over other supervised classification methods, which showed only 50% correctly classified pixels. The storm debris and erosion estimation or SDE methodology was developed from analysis of pre- and post-Katrina surface classification results of Gulfport samples. The SDE severity level criteria considered hurricane and flood damages and vulnerability of inhabited built-environment. A linear regression model, with +0.93 Pearson R-value, was developed for predicting SDE as a function of pre-disaster percent built-up area. SDE predictions for Gulfport sample areas, used for validation, were within +/-4% of calculated values. The damage cost model considered maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction costs related to infrastructure damage and community impacts of Hurricane Katrina. The developed

  10. Life cycle assessment part 2: current impact assessment practice.

    PubMed

    Pennington, D W; Potting, J; Finnveden, G; Lindeijer, E; Jolliet, O; Rydberg, T; Rebitzer, G

    2004-07-01

    Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). PMID:15051247

  11. Hillslope Hydrological Modeling in a Boreal Forest - Tools for Assessment of Logging Impacts on Runoff Generation and Nitrogen Loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koivusalo, H.; Kokkonen, T.

    2003-12-01

    stream. Sensitivity of modeled nitrate leaching to parameterization of decomposition and retention processes was assessed.

  12. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  13. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Einheuser, Matthew D.; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P.; Woznicki, Sean A.

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  14. Assessing the Impacts of Tillage and Fertilization Management on Nitrous Oxide Emissions in a Cornfield Using the DNDC Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, D.; Deng, Q.; Wang, J.; Yu, C. L.; Li, C.; Reddy, C.; Dennis, S.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands for multiple management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage, and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, TN under various management treatments and run for a short term (3 yrs) and a long term (100 yrs). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil and climate conditions under different tillage, alternative use of N fertilizer sources or application methods (i.e. nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure and split applications), given that the model was parameterized based on the measured crop growths for each treatment. The emissions of N2O significantly increased by 29% with tillage, and decreased by 26% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with the no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emissions in a short term, but over a long term (100 yrs) they might significantly alter N2O emission (+30%, -12%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emissions were sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining the best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Impact of the Fenton process in meat digestion as assessed using an in vitro gastro-intestinal model.

    PubMed

    Oueslati, Khaled; de La Pomélie, Diane; Santé-Lhoutellier, Véronique; Gatellier, Philippe

    2016-10-15

    The production of oxygen free radicals catalysed by non-haem iron was investigated in an in vitro mimetic model of the digestive tract using specific chemical traps. Superoxide radicals (O2(∗-)) and their protonated form (hydroperoxyl radicals, HO2(∗)) were detected by the reduction of nitroblue tetrazolium into formazan, and hydroxyl radicals (OH(∗)) were detected by the hydroxylation of terephthalate. Under gastric conditions, O2(∗-)/HO2(∗) were detected in higher quantity than OH(∗). Increasing the pH from 3.5 to 6.5 poorly affected the kinetics of free radical production. The oxidations generated by these free radicals were estimated on myofibrils prepared from pork rectus femoris muscle. Myofibrillar lipid and protein oxidation increased with time and oxidant concentration, with a negative impact on the digestibility of myofibrillar proteins. Plant food antioxidants considerably decreased free radical production and lipid oxidation but not protein oxidation. PMID:27173532

  16. Assessment of climate change impact on the fates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the multimedia environment based on model prediction.

    PubMed

    Cai, Juan Juan; Song, Jee Hey; Lee, Yunah; Lee, Dong Soo

    2014-02-01

    The objective was to quantitatively understand the impacts of climate change (CC) under the A1B scenario on the contamination levels of 11 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from pyrogenic sources in the environmental media based on model prediction. To predict the impacts of CC in South Korea, a revised version of KoEFT-PBTs, a dynamic multimedia model for persistent organic pollutants in South Korea, was used. Simulations were conducted for the period from 2000 to 2049 under the A1B scenario with the emission data for 2009 and the results for Seoul and Kangwon were compared to those under no climate change (NCC) scenario. Due to CC, the average of annual or monthly average concentration changes within a factor of two for the PAHs in air, soil and water. Time dependent comparison indicates that the maximum increase induced by CC in the monthly average concentration ranges from 10 to 10(2) in air and water. Change in advective flux due to wind speed difference between A1B and NCC dictates the change of the atmospheric PAHs levels while wet particle deposition due to rain rate difference contributes to some extent to the change of 5 and 6 ring PAHs. Whether the concentration change is positive or not depends primarily on the emission strength of internal sources relative to those in surrounding areas. The CC induced changes in atmospheric depositions and degradation rate in soil play a leading role in the change of soil concentration. In water, runoff and degradation are the key processes to the CC induced concentration change. Both in soil and water, the relative importance of individual key processes varies with PAHs. The difference between the two scenarios in wind speed and in rain rate shows stronger correlations with the concentration change than the temperature change. PMID:24001685

  17. USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Bachmann, Till M.; Swirsky Gold, Lois; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Jolliet, Olivier; Juraske, Ronnie; Koehler, Annette; Larsen, Henrik F.; MacLeod, Matthew; Margni, Manuele; McKone, Thomas E.; Payet, Jerome; Schuhmacher, Marta; van de Meent, Dik; Hauschild, Michael Z.

    2008-02-03

    provides a parsimonious and transparent tool for human health and ecosystem CF estimates. Based on a referenced database, it has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and forms the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC's Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. Recommendations and Perspectives. We provide both recommended and interim (not recommended and to be used with caution) characterisation factors for human health and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts. After a process of consensus building among stakeholders on a broad scale as well as several improvements regarding a wider and easier applicability of the model, USEtox will become available to practitioners for the calculation of further CFs.

  18. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis; Herrick, Courtney G.; Zeitler, Todd; Malama, Bwalya; Rudeen, David Keith; Gilkey, Amy P.

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  19. Assessing the impact of utilizing event based water erosion versus static average water erosion (RUSLE) in carbon turnover modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilken, Florian; Fiener, Peter

    2015-04-01

    The discrepancy between the time scales at which soil redistribution processes and SOC turnover occur is an unresolved issue in erosion related carbon turnover modeling. The use of a static average erosion rate (e.g. revised universal soil loss equation; RUSLE) ignores event dynamic processes of (i) SOC enrichment during erosion, transport and deposition, (ii) event specific C release to the atmosphere during erosion processes, and (iii) event specific depth of SOC burial,. We hypothesize that event driven SOC enrichment and SOC burial is of fundamental importance for inter-annual carbon turnover. The study was carried out in an arable watershed (3.7 ha) with no-till management located in the loess dominated Tertiary hills 40 km north of Munich, Germany. To assess the importance of event dynamic SOC redistribution processes, we implemented two different water erosion modelling approaches in the coupled erosion and turnover model SPEROS-C. The first, RUSLE-based approach as already implemented in SPEROS-C, represents long-term mean erosion, while the second is based on the high-resolution, event-based and especially sediment size class selective Multi-Class Sediment Transport model (MCST). In both cases bulk sediment delivery and in case of MCST sediment size specific sediment delivery are tested and partly calibrated against an eight year monitoring data set. First results indicate that especially SOC enrichment during erosion, transport and deposition should be included in estimates of soil redistribution processes upon watershed C balances. The modelling with MCST also indicates that interpreting SOC patterns in eroding landscapes might be also biased if the selective nature of SOC erosion and deposition is ignored.

  20. Assessing the impact of large-scale computing on the size and complexity of first-principles electromagnetic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, E. K.

    There is a growing need to determine the electromagnetic performance of increasingly complex systems at ever higher frequencies. The ideal approach would be some appropriate combination of measurement, analysis, and computation so that system design and assessment can be achieved to a needed degree of accuracy at some acceptable cost. Both measurement and computation benefit from the continuing growth in computer power that, since the early 1950s, has increased by a factor of more than a million in speed and storage. For example, a CRAY2 has an effective throughput (not the clock rate) of about 10(exp 11) floating point operations (FLOPs) per hour compared with the approx. 10(exp 5) provided by the UNIVAC-1. The purpose of this discussion is to illustrate the computational complexity of modeling large (in wavelengths) electromagnetic problems. In particular the point is made that simply relying on faster computers for increasing the size and complexity of problems that can be modeled is less effective than might be anticipated from this raw increase in computer throughput. It is suggested that rather than depending on faster computers alone, various analytical and numerical alternatives need development for reducing the overall FLOP count required to acquire the information desired. One approach is to decrease the operation count of the basic model computation itself, by reducing the order of the frequency dependence of the various numerical operations or their multiplying coefficients. Another is to decrease the number of model evaluations that are needed, an example being the number of frequency samples required to define a wideband response, by using an auxiliary model of the expected behavior.

  1. An Initial Assessment of Hanford Impact Performed with the System Assessment Capability

    SciTech Connect

    Bryce, Robert W.; Kincaid, Charles T.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Morasch, Launa F.

    2002-09-27

    The System Assessment Capability is an integrated system of computer models and databases to assess the impact of waste remaining at Hanford. This tool will help decision makers and the public evaluate the cumulative effects of contamination from Hanford. This report describes the results of an initial assessment performed with the System Assessment Capability tools.

  2. Test-retest, retest, and retest: Growth curve models of repeat testing with Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT).

    PubMed

    Maerlender, Arthur C; Masterson, Caitlin J; James, Tiffany D; Beckwith, Jonathan; Brolinson, Per Gunner; Crisco, Joe; Duma, Stefan; Flashman, Laura A; Greenwald, Rick; Rowson, Steven; Wilcox, Beth; McAllister, Tom W

    2016-10-01

    Computerized neuropsychological testing has become an important tool in the identification and management of sports-related concussions; however, the psychometric effect of repeat testing has not been studied extensively beyond test-retest statistics. The current study analyzed data from Division I collegiate athletes who completed Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) baseline assessments at four sequential time points that varied over the course of their athletic careers. Administrations were part of a larger National Institutes of Health (NIH) study. Growth curve modeling showed that the two memory composite scores increased significantly with successive administrations: Change in Verbal Memory was best represented with a quadratic model, while a linear model best fit Visual Memory. Visual Motor Speed and Reaction Time composites showed no significant linear or quadratic growth. The results demonstrate the effect of repeated test administrations for memory composite scores, while speed composites were not significantly impacted by repeat testing. Acceptable test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all four composites as well. PMID:27266563

  3. Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Marmorek, David R.

    1983-01-01

    Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic

  4. Linking biological integrity and watershed models to assess the impacts of historical land use and climate changes on stream health.

    PubMed

    Einheuser, Matthew D; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P; Woznicki, Sean A

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R (2) = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions. PMID:23609304

  5. A method for the assessment of site-specific economic impacts of commercial and industrial biomass energy facilities. A handbook and computer model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    A handbook on ``A Method for the Assessment of Site-specific Econoomic Impacts of Industrial and Commercial Biomass Energy Facilities`` has been prepared by Resource Systems Group Inc. under contract to the Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program (SERBEP). The handbook includes a user-friendly Lotus 123 spreadsheet which calculates the economic impacts of biomass energy facilities. The analysis uses a hybrid approach, combining direct site-specific data provided by the user, with indirect impact multipliers from the US Forest Service IMPLAN input/output model for each state. Direct economic impacts are determined primarily from site-specific data and indirect impacts are determined from the IMPLAN multipliers. The economic impacts are given in terms of income, employment, and state and federal taxes generated directly by the specific facility and by the indirect economic activity associated with each project. A worksheet is provided which guides the user in identifying and entering the appropriate financial data on the plant to be evaluated. The WLAN multipliers for each state are included in a database within the program. The multipliers are applied automatically after the user has entered the site-specific data and the state in which the facility is located. Output from the analysis includes a summary of direct and indirect income, employment and taxes. Case studies of large and small wood energy facilities and an ethanol plant are provided as examples to demonstrate the method. Although the handbook and program are intended for use by those with no previous experience in economic impact analysis, suggestions are given for the more experienced user who may wish to modify the analysis techniques.

  6. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures. PMID:26318547

  7. A USCLVAR Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2009-01-01

    The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of

  8. A numerical modelling tool for assessing the impact of climate change and management options on water supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romano, Emanuele; Guyennon, Nicolas; Mariani, Davide; Bruna Petrangeli, Anna; Portoghese, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Conditions of scarcity for a water supply system occur when the available resource are not able to satisfy the connected demands. They can arise both from a decreasing of the inflow to the exploited resources and/or from a increasing of the demand. Such conditions can be assessed by a water balance model able to simulate both the hydrological processes describing the relationships between the meteorological forcing (precipitation) and the inflows to the exploited reservoir, and the intra- and inter-annual time distribution of the connected demand and the reservoir management policies. We present a numerical modelling tool, developed for the management of the Maggiore Lake, that computes at daily scale the water budget of such reservoir taking into account 1) the monthly precipitation over the watershed basin and the related inflow; 2) the seasonal demand for irrigation and 3) the operative hydrometric levels constraints to the lake water withdrawal. The model represents precipitation over the basin through the space mean of the standardized precipitation indices computed at different aggregation scales using observed time series. The relationship between the precipitation regime and the inflow to the reservoir is obtained through a simple multilinear regression model, considering the SPI computed at 1, 3 and 6 months as independent variables: this allows to take hydrological processes into account featuring different characteristic times and to simulate both the historic inflow regime and the possible conditions forecast by climate scenarios. The regression model is validated on the precipitation and lake inflow observations in the period 1996-2013 using a leave-one-out cross validation. The seasonal irrigation demand is assigned based on the extensions of crops fed by the lake water and regardless of the climate conditions; the actual supply is limited by the operative hydrometric range of allowable water levels, which stop water distribution when the lake level

  9. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  10. Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated hydrology-geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)-Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS-Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non-negligible probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate "alternatives." This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment yield is already so

  11. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts

    PubMed Central

    Iskandar, Anita R.; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V.; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-01-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air–liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model. PMID:26085348

  12. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts.

    PubMed

    Iskandar, Anita R; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-09-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air-liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model. PMID:26085348

  13. Enhancing impact: visualization of an integrated impact assessment strategy.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Gary R; Bouchard, Michel A; de Sa, Isabel Marques; Paris, Isabelle; Balge, Zachary; Williams, Dane; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Utzinger, Jürg

    2012-05-01

    The environmental impact assessment process is over 40 years old and has dramatically expanded. Topics, such as social, health and human rights impact are now included. The main body of an impact analysis is generally hundreds of pages long and supported by countless technical appendices. For large, oil/gas, mining and water resources projects both the volume and technical sophistication of the reports has far exceeded the processing ability of host communities. Instead of informing and empowering, the reports are abstruse and overwhelming. Reinvention is required. The development of a visual integrated impact assessment strategy that utilizes remote sensing and spatial analyses is described. PMID:22639133

  14. Integrating Land Conservation and Renewable Energy Goals in California: Assessing Land Use and Economic Cost Impacts Using the Optimal Renewable Energy Build-Out (ORB) Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. C.; Schlag, N. H.; Cameron, D. R.; Brand, E.; Crane, L.; Williams, J.; Price, S.; Hernandez, R. R.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    There is a lack of understanding of the environmental impacts and economic costs of potential renewable energy (RE) siting decisions that achieve ambitious RE targets. Such analyses are needed to inform policy recommendations that minimize potential conflicts between conservation and RE development. We use the state of California's rapid development of utility-scale RE as a case study to examine how possible land use constraints impact the total electricity land area, areas with conservation value, water use, and electricity cost of ambitious RE portfolios. We developed the Optimal Renewable energy Build-out (ORB) model, and used it in conjunction with the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Calculator, a RE procurement and transmission planning tool used by utilities within California, to generate environmentally constrained renewable energy potential and assess the cost and siting-associated impacts of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power (CSP), and geothermal technologies. We find that imposing environmental constraints on RE development achieves lower conservation impacts and results in development of more fragmented land areas. With increased RE and environmental exclusions, generation becomes more widely distributed across the state, which results in more development on herbaceous agricultural vegetation, grasslands, and developed & urban land cover types. We find land use efficiencies of RE technologies are relatively inelastic to changes in environmental constraints, suggesting that cost-effective substitutions that reduce environmental impact and achieve RE goals is possible under most scenarios and exclusion categories. At very high RE penetration that is limited to in-state development, cost effectiveness decreases substantially under the highest level of environmental constraint due to the over-reliance on solar technologies. This additional cost is removed once the in-state constraint is lifted, suggesting that minimizing both negative

  15. Health and impact assessment: Are we seeing closer integration?

    SciTech Connect

    Morgan, Richard K.

    2011-07-15

    Health has always had a place in wider impact assessment activities, from the earliest days of the National Environmental Policy Act in the United States. However, early thinking tended to focus on health protection and environmental health issues, especially in relation to the effects of pollution. The adoption of wider models of health was reflected in impact assessment circles from the early 1990s, with particular emphasis on an integrated approach to impact assessment, especially at the project level, which would see health impact assessment benefiting from working with other forms of impact assessment, such as social and ecological. Yet twenty years later, integration still seems a distant prospect in many countries. In this paper I examine the case for integrating health considerations within the wider IA process, discuss some of the problems that have historically restricted progress towards this end, and explore the degree to which impact assessment practitioners have been successful in seeking to improve the consideration of health in IA. In New Zealand, project-level impact assessment is based on an integrated model under the Resource Management Act. In addition, HIA was recognised in the early 1990s as a valuable addition to the toolkit for project assessment. Since then policy-level HIA has grown supported by extensive capacity building. If health is being integrated into wider impact assessment, it should be happening in New Zealand where so many enabling conditions are met. Three major project proposals from New Zealand are examined, to characterise the broad trends in HIA development in New Zealand in the last ten years and to assess the degree to which health concerns are being reflected in wider impact assessments. The findings are discussed in the context of the issues outlined in the early part of the paper.

  16. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  17. Environmental Impact Assessment and Space Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viikari, L.

    least more open distribution of information about human enterprises in space, too.However, the "public concerned" in space activities may cover the entire humanity, which would most likely direct the possible spatial EIA procedures into the auspices of the UN, with states representing their portion of the "public". Despite the peculiarities in assessing the potential impacts of space activities, Environmental Impact Assessment, modified to answer thes e particular features, would seem as a tool worth considering for the above objectives of enhanced environmental protection and public involvement. This is particularly true, as any adverse environmental impacts of space activities are highly difficult to mitigate, once they have materialized. For the above mentioned reasons, and for the fact that space activities are regulated for a major part on policy level, particularly Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) would seem a viable option. As distinct from the project EIA, the SEA means carrying out EIAs of plans themselves, i.e. it directly addresses the environmental implications of proposed strategies and policies. Formerly, the governmental authorities tended to regard SEA with suspicion because of the public interest groups involvement in policy making that the SEA entails. However, currently the SEA is a highly topical issue in the international arena, particularly because of the ongoing discussions within the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe about adopting a Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to amend the Espoo Convention, and of the recent EU Directive (2001/42/EC) on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on t he environment. These instruments could also serve as feasible models for SEA in the outer space environment.

  18. Impact of food intake on in vivo VOC concentrations in exhaled breath assessed in a caprine animal model.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Sina; Bergmann, Andreas; Steffens, Markus; Trefz, Phillip; Ziller, Mario; Miekisch, Wolfram; Schubert, Jochen S; Köhler, Heike; Reinhold, Petra

    2015-12-01

    Physiological processes within the body may change emitted volatile organic compound (VOC) composition, and may therefore cause confounding biological background variability in breath gas analyses. To evaluate the effect of food intake on VOC concentration patterns in exhaled breath, this study assessed the variability of VOC concentrations due to food intake in a standardized caprine animal model. VOCs in (i) alveolar breath gas samples of nine clinically healthy goats and (ii) room air samples were collected and pre-concentrated before morning feeding and repeatedly after (+60 min, +150 min, +240 min) using needle trap microextraction (NTME). Analysis of VOCs was performed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Only VOCs with significantly higher concentrations in breath gas samples compared to room air samples were taken into consideration. Six VOCs that belonged to the chemical classes of hydrocarbons and alcohols were identified presenting significantly different concentrations before and after feeding. Selected hydrocarbons showed a concentration pattern that was characterized by an initial increase 60 min after food intake, and a subsequent gradual decrease. Results emphasize consideration of physiological effects on exhaled VOC concentrations due to food intake with respect to standardized protocols of sample collection and critical evaluation of results. PMID:26670078

  19. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish.

    PubMed

    Luizza, Matthew W; Evangelista, Paul H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management. PMID:27003689

  20. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  1. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  2. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Heaberlin, S.W.; Burnham, J.B.; Gallucci, R.H.V.; Mullen, M.F.; Nesse, R.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.; Triplett, M.B.; Weakley, S.A.; Wusterbarth, A.R.

    1983-12-01

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues.

  3. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  4. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  5. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  6. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Rivkin, A.; Reed, C.

    2012-12-01

    To protect the Earth from a hazardous asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. AIDA, consisting of two mission elements, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, is a demonstration of asteroid deflection. To date, there has been no such demonstration, and there is major uncertainty in the result of a spacecraft impact onto an asteroid, that is, the amount of deflection produced by a given momentum input from the impact. This uncertainty is in part due to unknown physical properties of the asteroid surface, such as porosity and strength, and in part due to poorly understood impact physics such that the momentum carried off by ejecta is highly uncertain. A first mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection would not only be a major step towards gaining the capability to mitigate an asteroid hazard, but in addition it would return unique information on an asteroid's strength, other surface properties, and internal structure. This information return would be highly relevant to future human exploration of asteroids. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART spacecraft impactor study is coordinated with an ESA study of the AIM mission, which would rendezvous with the same asteroid to measure effects of the impact. Unlike the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid. DART includes ground-based observations to measure the deflection independently of the rendezvous spacecraft observations from AIM, which also measures deflection and provides detailed characterization of the target asteroid. The joint mission AIDA

  7. Population pharmacokinetic modelling to assess the impact of CYP2D6 and CYP3A metabolic phenotypes on the pharmacokinetics of tamoxifen and endoxifen

    PubMed Central

    ter Heine, Rob; Binkhorst, Lisette; de Graan, Anne Joy M; de Bruijn, Peter; Beijnen, Jos H; Mathijssen, Ron H J; Huitema, Alwin D R

    2014-01-01

    Aims Tamoxifen is considered a pro-drug of its active metabolite endoxifen. The major metabolic enzymes involved in endoxifen formation are CYP2D6 and CYP3A. There is considerable evidence that variability in activity of these enzymes influences endoxifen exposure and thereby may influence the clinical outcome of tamoxifen treatment. We aimed to quantify the impact of metabolic phenotype on the pharmacokinetics of tamoxifen and endoxifen. Methods We assessed the CYP2D6 and CYP3A metabolic phenotypes in 40 breast cancer patients on tamoxifen treatment with a single dose of dextromethorphan as a dual phenotypic probe for CYP2D6 and CYP3A. The pharmacokinetics of dextromethorphan, tamoxifen and their relevant metabolites were analyzed using non-linear mixed effects modelling. Results Population pharmacokinetic models were developed for dextromethorphan, tamoxifen and their metabolites. In the final model for tamoxifen, the dextromethorphan derived metabolic phenotypes for CYP2D6 as well as CYP3A significantly (P < 0.0001) explained 54% of the observed variability in endoxifen formation (inter-individual variability reduced from 55% to 25%). Conclusions We have shown that not only CYP2D6, but also CYP3A enzyme activity influences the tamoxifen to endoxifen conversion in breast cancer patients. Our developed model may be used to assess separately the impact of CYP2D6 and CYP3A mediated drug–drug interactions with tamoxifen without the necessity of administering this anti-oestrogenic drug and to support Bayesian guided therapeutic drug monitoring of tamoxifen in routine clinical practice. PMID:24697814

  8. Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Loehle, Craig

    2011-01-01

    There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO2 on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO2 on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided. PMID:22393483

  9. Assessing the impact of climate change on the crop potential productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on crop model and GIS technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Zhan; Lei, Xiaotu; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2007-09-01

    The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate models project climate change will be more severe in this century, and with significant impacts on many human sectors, particularly agriculture. Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society, especially for highly populated countries such as China. Huang Huai-Hai Plain is regarded as the bread basket of China. With only 7.7% water resources of the whole country, it produces 39.2% of national grain production and 32.4% of gross domestic product. According to government predictions, by 2030 this area will have a net population increase of 104 million, while its urbanization rate will be greater than 50%. The total irrigated area will reach about 20 million ha, with a net increase of 2 million ha/year. In this study, DSSAT a dynamic process crop growth model, has been calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat and summer maize-growing region of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China The IPCC SRES greenhouse gase emission scenarios A2 and B2 were used in the simulation, combining with the Regional Climate Model (PRICES) which provides long term present and future daily weather data. Using the regional crop model and GIS technologies, the crop productivity changes of two main crops winter wheat and summer maize were for simulated 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under both IPCC SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Simulation results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on crop production in this region, with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production. In conclusion, this exercise successfully tested the applicability of standard climate change impact assessment methodology to an important production region of China.

  10. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  11. Development of a Kelp-type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Gill, Gary A.

    2014-02-07

    In recent years, with the rapid growth of global energy demand, the interest in extracting uranium from seawater for nuclear energy has been renewed. While extracting seawater uranium is not yet commercially viable, it serves as a “backstop” to the conventional uranium resources and provides an essentially unlimited supply of uranium resource. With recent advances in seawater uranium extraction technology, extracting uranium from seawater could be economically feasible when the extraction devices are deployed at a large scale (e.g., several hundred km2). There is concern however that the large scale deployment of adsorbent farms could result in potential impacts to the hydrodynamic flow field in an oceanic setting. In this study, a kelp-type structure module was incorporated into a coastal ocean model to simulate the blockage effect of uranium extraction devices on the flow field. The module was quantitatively validated against laboratory flume experiments for both velocity and turbulence profiles. The model-data comparison showed an overall good agreement and validated the approach of applying the model to assess the potential hydrodynamic impact of uranium extraction devices or other underwater structures in coastal oceans.

  12. The Impact of an Alternative Professional Development Model on Teacher Practices in Formative Assessment and Student Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Jack; Myran, Steve; Strauss, Richard; Reed, William

    2014-01-01

    Among contemporary means of enhancing student learning, formative assessment is perhaps one of the most important and effective. While formative assessment ideas and practices have been shown to have a proven record enhancing student learning, these practices are slow to be fully integrated into teachers' day-to-day classroom practices. This…

  13. Multilevel-multifaceted approach to assessing the impact of technology-mediated modeling practice on student understanding of the particulate nature of matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Hsin-Yi

    Computer animations or dynamic models may support students' visualization of dynamic processes or abstract relationships. However, research has shown mixed results for the effect of instructional animation on student learning. More studies are needed to advance the understanding of the theoretical foundation and educational value of instructional animation. In this study I explored the use of technology-mediated modeling practices to augment the impact of an animation tool, Chemation, in seventh-grade science classrooms. Chemation can mediate students' modeling practices including designing, interpreting and evaluating animations. The purpose of this study is to discern the impact of these technology-mediated modeling practices on students' chemistry understanding by employing a systematic approach of research methods. I compared student learning in three treatments: students (1) design, interpret, and evaluate animations, (2) only design and interpret animations, and (3) only view teacher-made animations and interpret the animation. Eight seventh-grade classes (271 students) were randomly assigned to the treatments. I examined multiple measures including students' worksheets and animations, selected students' post-instructional interviews, and pre- and post-instructional chemistry achievement tests to assess three facets of chemistry understanding: (1) adequate chemistry content knowledge, (2) mastered representation skill, and (3) coherent conceptual framework. I also examined students' cognitive strategies demonstrated as they constructed animations of molecular processes during the interview. The results of the multiple measures consistently indicate that the complete combination of the technology-mediated modeling practices better supported student development of chemistry understanding, revealing that designing animation coupled with peer-evaluation is an effective approach to the use of instructional animation. Moreover, the designing approach prompts

  14. An Earth Penetrating Modeling Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Stokes, E; Yarrington, P; Glenn, L

    2005-06-21

    Documentation of a study to assess the capability of computer codes to predict lateral loads on earth penetrating projectiles under conditions of non-normal impact. Calculations simulated a set of small scale penetration tests into concrete targets with oblique faces at angles of 15 and 30 degrees to the line-of-flight. Predictive codes used by the various calculational teams cover a wide range of modeling approaches from approximate techniques, such as cavity expansion, to numerical methods, such as finite element codes. The modeling assessment was performed under the auspices of the Phenomenology Integrated Product Team (PIPT) for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Program (RNEP). Funding for the penetration experiments and modeling was provided by multiple earth penetrator programs.

  15. Modeling the Vakhsh Cascade in the Amu Darya River Basin - Implementing Future Storage Facilities in a Hydrological Model for Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, J. F.; Siegfried, T.; Yakovlev, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the Amu Darya River Basin in Central Asia, the Vakhsh catchment in Tajikistan is a major source of hydropower energy for the country. With a number of large dams already constructed, upstream Tajikistan is interested in the construction of one more large dam and a number of smaller storage facilities with the prospect of supplying its neighboring states with hydropower through a newly planned power grid. The impact of new storage facilities along the river is difficult to estimate and causes considerable concern and consternation among the downstream users. Today, it is one of the vexing poster child studies in international water conflict that awaits resolution. With a lack of meteorological data and a complex topography that makes application of remote sensed data difficult it is a challenge to model runoff correctly. Large parts of the catchment is glacierized and ranges from just 500 m asl to peaks above 7000 m asl. Based on in-situ time series for temperature and precipitation we find local correction factors for remote sensed products. Using this data we employ a model based on the Budyko framework with an extension for snow and ice in the higher altitude bands. The model furthermore accounts for groundwater and soil storage. Runoff data from a number of stations are used for the calibration of the model parameters. With an accurate representation of the existing and planned reservoirs in the Vakhsh cascade we study the potential impacts from the construction of the new large reservoir in the river. Impacts are measured in terms of a) the timing and availability of new hydropower energy, also in light of its potential for export to South Asia, b) shifting challenges with regard to river sediment loads and siltation of reservoirs and c) impacts on downstream runoff and the timely availability of irrigation water there. With our coupled hydro-climatological approach, the challenges of optimal cascade management can be addressed so as to minimize detrimental

  16. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  17. Linking Global to Regional Models to Assess Future Climate Impacts on Surface Ozone Concentrations in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    The UCD sectional aerosol model has been coupled to the CMAQ air quality model and used to simulate air quality in Tampa, Florida. Sea salt emissions are parameterized as a function of modeled wind speed and relative humidity. Modeled aerosol sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sodium,...

  18. LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT SOPHISTICATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    An international workshop was held in Brussels on 11/29-30/1998, to discuss LCIA Sophistication. LCA experts from North America, Europs, and Asia attended. Critical reviews of associated factors, including current limitations of available assessment methodologies, and comparison...

  19. Catalysis-by-design impacts assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Fassbender, L L; Young, J K; Sen, R K

    1991-05-01

    Catalyst researchers have always recognized the need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms of catalytic processes, and have hoped that it would lead to developing a theoretical predictive base to guide the search for new catalysts. This understanding allows one to develop a set of hierarchical models, from fundamental atomic-level ab-initio models to detailed engineering simulations of reactor systems, to direct the search for optimized, efficient catalyst systems. During the last two decades, the explosions of advanced surface analysis techniques have helped considerably to develop the building blocks for understanding various catalytic reactions. An effort to couple these theoretical and experimental advances to develop a set of hierarchical models to predict the nature of catalytic materials is a program entitled Catalysis-by-Design (CRD).'' In assessing the potential impacts of CBD on US industry, the key point to remember is that the value of the program lies in developing a novel methodology to search for new catalyst systems. Industrial researchers can then use this methodology to develop proprietary catalysts. Most companies involved in catalyst R D have two types of ongoing projects. The first type, what we call market-driven R D,'' are projects that support and improve upon a company's existing product lines. Project of the second type, technology-driven R D,'' are longer term, involve the development of totally new catalysts, and are initiated through scientists' research ideas. The CBD approach will impact both types of projects. However, this analysis indicates that the near-term impacts will be on market-driven'' projects. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report were obtained by the authors through personal interviews with individuals involved in a variety of industrial catalyst development programs and through the three CBD workshops held in the summer of 1989. 34 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  20. ASSESSMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    CAMD works with research scientists and organizations in the academic community to assess and better understand the impacts of atmospheric deposition of power sector pollutant emissions on terrestrial and aquatic (including freshwater and marine) ecosystems. See peer review pr...

  1. Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Health Impact Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a methodology for incorporating considerations of public health into planning and decision-making processes. HIA promotes interdisciplinary action, stakeholder participation, and timeliness and takes into account equity, sustainability, and...

  2. LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT - A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research within the field of life cycle impact assessment has greatly improved since the work of Heijungs and Guinee in 1992. Methodologies are currently available to address specific locations within North America, Europe and Asia. Internationally researchers are working togethe...

  3. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  4. The Strategic Assessment Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glazner, Steve, Ed.

    This book presents six papers focusing on the application of the strategic assessment model (SAM) to the management of higher education facilities. The papers are part of an ongoing effort by the Association of Higher Education Facilities Officers to provide comparative cost and staffing information and to develop a benchmarking process. The…

  5. Old Dog New Tricks: Use of Point-based Crop Models in Grid-based Regional Assessment of Crop Management Technologies Impact on Future Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koo, J.; Wood, S.; Cenacchi, N.; Fisher, M.; Cox, C.

    2012-12-01

    HarvestChoice (harvestchoice.org) generates knowledge products to guide strategic investments to improve the productivity and profitability of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A keynote component of the HarvestChoice analytical framework is a grid-based overlay of SSA - a cropping simulation platform powered by process-based, crop models. Calibrated around the best available representation of cropping production systems in SSA, the simulation platform engages the DSSAT Crop Systems Model with the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter model (DSSAT-CENTURY) and provides a virtual experimentation module with which to explore the impact of a range of technological, managerial and environmental metrics on future crop productivity and profitability, as well as input use. For each of 5 (or 30) arc-minute grid cells in SSA, a stack of model input underlies it: datasets that cover soil properties and fertility, historic and future climate scenarios and farmers' management practices; all compiled from analyses of existing global and regional databases and consultations with other CGIAR centers. Running a simulation model is not always straightforward, especially when certain cropping systems or management practices are not even practiced by resource-poor farmers yet (e.g., precision agriculture) or they were never included in the existing simulation framework (e.g., water harvesting). In such cases, we used DSSAT-CENTURY as a function to iteratively estimate relative responses of cropping systems to technology-driven changes in water and nutrient balances compared to zero-adoption by farmers, while adjusting model input parameters to best mimic farmers' implementation of technologies in the field. We then fed the results of the simulation into to the economic and food trade model framework, IMPACT, to assess the potential implications on future food security. The outputs of the overall simulation analyses are packaged as a web-accessible database and published

  6. Devising an Environmental Impact Assessment Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Catalano, Ralph A.

    1975-01-01

    The need for personnel trained in understanding environmental impact statements has become apparent. In an attempt to fill this need, the University of California developed a program designed to produce a select number of graduates qualified to assess environmental impact statements. (MA)

  7. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  8. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models - A case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmadi, Azadeh; Moridi, Ali; Lafdani, Elham Kakaei; Kianpisheh, Ghasem

    2014-10-01

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  10. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. PMID:25590537

  11. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Huang, Chengquan; Prior, Stephen A.; Pan, Shufen

    2013-07-01

    ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest management in this region. In this study, we introduced a process-based ecosystem model for simulating forest disturbance impacts on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Based on forest mortality data classified from Landsat TM/ETM + images, this model was then applied to estimate changes in carbon storage using Mississippi and Alabama as a case study. Mean annual forest mortality rate for these states was 2.37%. Due to frequent disturbance, over 50% of the forest land in the study region was less than 30 years old. Forest disturbance events caused a large carbon source (138.92 Tg C, 6.04 Tg C yr-1; 1 Tg = 1012 g) for both states during 1984-2007, accounting for 2.89% (4.81% if disregard carbon storage changes in wood products) of the total forest carbon storage in this region. Large decreases and slow recovery of forest biomass were the main causes for carbon release. Forest disturbance could result in a carbon sink in few areas if wood product carbon was considered as a local carbon pool, indicating the importance of accounting for wood product carbon when assessing forest disturbance effects. The legacy effects of forest disturbance on ecosystem carbon storage could last over 50 years. This study implies that understanding forest disturbance impacts on carbon dynamics is of critical importance for assessing regional carbon budgets.

  12. Age structured stochastic recruitment model for assessment of power plant impact. [Simulation of striped bass population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, P.J.; Swartzman, G.L.

    1984-03-01

    The dynamics of the Hudson river striped bass (Morone saxatilis) stock were analyzed using a stochastic age structured model. The effect of river flow on recruitment was combined with the mortality due to fishing and power plant water uptake to obtain an overall effect of these variables on the fishery. Model equations and parameters were documented and their underlying assumptions presented. Preliminary model runs resulted in yields well below those actually observed. Calibration of model parameters brought these values closer to the observed yields, but stock values proved inexact. The influence of power plant mortality on fishery yield was evident, but the simulation results remain inconclusive. 11 references, 4 figures, 6 tables.

  13. Assessment for Learning: Effects and Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flórez, María Teresa; Sammons, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    The idea that schools can impact positively on student outcomes is a crucial driver in the rise of interest in school improvement research and practice. This review focuses on assessment for learning. Assessment for learning (AfL)--where the first priority is to promote learning--is a key means of initiating improvement. This review proposes that…

  14. Climate impact assessment, United States

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-02-01

    This report considers unusual or abnormal meteorological or geophysical events (unusual in time, location, intensity, frequency or persistence) that will likely have an impact on societal or economic activities in a special and significant manner. This report considers: 1) violent meteorological events such as damaging thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical and winter storms, 2) non-violent meteorological events, including mild, unusually pleasant weather, lack of precipitation, and temperature extremes, 3) meteorologically related events, particularly drought, floods, forest fires and ice jams, and 4) geophysical events such as avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamies, waves, tides and shoreline erosion.

  15. VTAC: virtual terrain assisted impact assessment for cyber attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argauer, Brian J.; Yang, Shanchieh J.

    2008-03-01

    Overwhelming intrusion alerts have made timely response to network security breaches a difficult task. Correlating alerts to produce a higher level view of intrusion state of a network, thus, becomes an essential element in network defense. This work proposes to analyze correlated or grouped alerts and determine their 'impact' to services and users of the network. A network is modeled as 'virtual terrain' where cyber attacks maneuver. Overlaying correlated attack tracks on virtual terrain exhibits the vulnerabilities exploited by each track and the relationships between them and different network entities. The proposed impact assessment algorithm utilizes the graph-based virtual terrain model and combines assessments of damages caused by the attacks. The combined impact scores allow to identify severely damaged network services and affected users. Several scenarios are examined to demonstrate the uses of the proposed Virtual Terrain Assisted Impact Assessment for Cyber Attacks (VTAC).

  16. AIDA: the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincent, Jean-Baptiste

    2016-07-01

    The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint cooperation between European and US space agencies that consists of two separate and independent spacecraft that will be launched to a binary asteroid system, the near-Earth asteroid Didymos, to assess the possibility of deflecting an asteroid trajectory by using a kinetic impactor. The European Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is under Phase A/B1 study at ESA from March 2015 until summer 2016. AIM is set to rendez-vous with the asteroid system a few months prior to the impact by the US Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to fully characterize the smaller of the two binary components. AIM is a unique mission as it will be the first time that a spacecraft will investigate the surface, subsurface, and internal properties of a small binary near Earth asteroid. In addition it will perform various important technology demonstrations that can serve other space missions: AIM will release a set of CubeSats in deep space and a lander on the surface of the smaller asteroid and for the first time, deep-space inter-satellite linking will be demonstrated between the main spacecraft, the CubeSats, and the lander, and data will also be transmitted from interplanetary space to Earth by a laser communication system. The knowledge obtained by this mission will have great implications for our understanding of the history of the Solar System. Small asteroids are believed to result from collisions and other processes (e.g., spinup, shaking) that made them what they are now. Having direct information on their surface and internal properties will allow us to understand how these processes work and transform these small bodies as well as, for this particular case, how a binary system forms. So far, our understanding of the collisional process and the validation of numerical simulations of the impact process rely on impact experiments at laboratory scales. With DART, thanks to the characterization of the

  17. Impact of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: an assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Manish K.; Kucharski, Fred

    2016-06-01

    The present study evaluates the fidelity of 32 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in simulating the observed teleconnection of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Approximately two-thirds of the models show well-defined spatial pattern of IPO over the Pacific basin and most amongst these capture the IPO-ISMR teleconnection. In general, the models that fail to reproduce the IPO-ISMR teleconnection are the ones that are also showing a poor spatial pattern of IPO, irrespective of the extent to which they reproduce the precipitation climatology and seasonal cycle. The results reveal a strong relationship between the quality of reproducing the IPO pattern and the IPO-ISMR teleconnection in the models, in particular with respect to the tropical-extratropical as well as the equatorial Pacific-Indian Ocean sea surface temperature gradients during IPO phases. Furthermore, the CMIP5 models that are capable of reproducing the IPO-ISMR teleconnection also reasonably simulate the atmospheric circulation as well as the convergence/divergence patterns associated with the IPO. Thus, for the better understanding of decadal-to-multidecadal variability and to improve decadal prediction of rainfall over India it is therefore vital that models should simulate the IPO skillfully.

  18. Pb-Pb dating of individual chondrules from the CBa chondrite Gujba: Assessment of the impact plume formation model

    PubMed Central

    Bollard, Jean; Connelly, James N.; Bizzarro, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The CB chondrites are metal-rich meteorites with characteristics that sharply distinguish them from other chondrite groups. Their unusual chemical and petrologic features and a young formation age of bulk chondrules dated from the CBa chondrite Gujba are interpreted to reflect a single-stage impact origin. Here, we report high-precision internal isochrons for four individual chondrules of the Gujba chondrite to probe the formation history of CB chondrites and evaluate the concordancy of relevant short-lived radionuclide chronometers. All four chondrules define a brief formation interval with a weighted mean age of 4562.49 ± 0.21 Myr, consistent with its origin from the vapor-melt impact plume generated by colliding planetesimals. Formation in a debris disk mostly devoid of nebular gas and dust sets an upper limit for the solar protoplanetary disk lifetime at 4.8 ± 0.3 Myr. Finally, given the well-behaved Pb-Pb systematics of all four chondrules, a precise formation age and the concordancy of the Mn-Cr, Hf-W, and I-Xe short-lived radionuclide relative chronometers, we propose that Gujba may serve as a suitable time anchor for these systems. PMID:27429545

  19. MODELING AIR POLLUTION FROM THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD TRADE CENTER AND ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON HUMAN EXPOSURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and the Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI) have been working together under a University Partnership Agreement to develop improved methods for human exposure modeling. This partnership was ongo...

  20. The Gwava Model - Development of A Global-scale Methodology To Assess The Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meigh, J. R.; Tate, E. L.

    The GWAVA model is a global-scale approach to hydrological modelling that has been developed to provide a consistent and realistic examination of water resources problems. By using linked 0.5 by 0.5 degree cells, global data sets can be applied and coverage of large regions becomes possible. The key output is comparison of wa- ter availability and water demands at the scale of the grid cell. Unlike most other global-scale assessments, GWAVA highlights both temporal and spatial aspects of water scarcity. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to river flows, and runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accu- mulated to give total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps using estimates of the potential yield and likely maximum borehole density, while also considering potential recharge derived from the surface water model. Water demands are based on population and livestock data, and infor- mation on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Various indices of water avail- ability are derived to compare the resource with the demand. Application of climate change scenarios, combined with population projections and possible water demand changes due to economic development, allows a range of scenarios of future water resources to be examined. This approach has been applied to a region covering 20 countries in eastern and southern Africa to provide a detailed picture of the status of water resources (Meigh et al., 1999), showing that water scarcity is likely to increase, and identifying the particular parts of the region most at risk. An additional potential influence on hydrology is land use change, and recent developments of the GWAVA approach include the ability to model this impact. The model is being applied over the whole of West Africa, a region where land use change is a significant issue and where major vegetation changes are ongoing (desertification in

  1. An assessment model for atmospheric composition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    Predicting future perturbations to global air quality and climate requires, as a prerequisite, prognostic models for the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Such assessment models are needed to evaluate the impact on our environment of different social choices that affect emissions of the photochemically and radiatively important trace gases. Our presentation here of a prototype assessment model is intended to encourage public scientific discussions of the necessary components of the model and their interactions, with the recognition that models similar to this will likely be used by the Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory agencies in order to assess the effect of changes in atmospheric composition on climate over the next century.

  2. Spatial- and time-explicit human damage modeling of ozone depleting substances in life cycle impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Struijs, Jaap; van Dijk, Arjan; Slaper, Harry; van Wijnen, Harm J; Velders, Guus J M; Chaplin, George; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2010-01-01

    Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is mainly caused by emissions of persistent halocarbons of anthropogenic origin. The resulting increase of solar ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface is associated with increased exposure of humans and increased human health damage. Here we assessed the change in human health damage caused by three types of skin cancer and cataract in terms of (healthy) years of life lost per kiloton emission reduction of an ozone-depleting substance (ODS). This so-called characterization factor is used in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Characterization factors are provided for the emissions of five chlorofluorocarbons, three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, three (bromine-containing) halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and anthropogenic emissions of methyl bromide. We employed dynamic calculations on a global scale for this purpose, taking physical and social geographic data into account such as skin tones, population density, average age, and life expectancy. When emission rates of all ODSs in 2007 are multiplied by our characterization factors, the resulting number of years of life lost may be a factor of 5 higher than reported previously. This increase is merely explained through the global demographic development until 2100 we took into account. PMID:19958022

  3. Development and evaluation of an air quality modeling approach to assess near-field impacts of lead emissions from piston-engine aircraft operating on leaded aviation gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Edward; Lee, Mark; Marin, Kristen; Holder, Christopher; Hoyer, Marion; Pedde, Meredith; Cook, Rich; Touma, Jawad

    2011-10-01

    Since aviation gasoline is now the largest remaining source of lead (Pb) emissions to the air in the United States, there is increased interest by regulatory agencies and the public in assessing the impacts on residents living in close proximity to these sources. An air quality modeling approach using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) was developed and evaluated for estimating atmospheric concentrations of Pb at and near general aviation airports where leaded aviation gasoline (avgas) is used. These detailed procedures were made to accurately characterize emissions and dispersion leading to improved model performance for a pollutant with concentrations that vary rapidly across short distances. The new aspects of this work included a comprehensive Pb emission inventory that incorporated sub-daily time-in-mode (TIM) activity data for piston-engine aircraft, aircraft-induced wake turbulence, plume rise of the aircraft exhaust, and allocation of approach and climb-out emissions to 50-m increments in altitude. To evaluate the modeling approach used here, ambient Pb concentrations were measured upwind and downwind of the Santa Monica Airport (SMO) and compared to modeled air concentrations. Modeling results paired in both time and space with monitoring data showed excellent overall agreement (absolute fractional bias of 0.29 winter, 0.07 summer). The modeling results on individual days show Pb concentration gradients above the urban background concentration of 10 ng m-3 extending downwind up to 900 m from the airport, with a crosswind extent of 400 m. Three-month average modeled concentrations above the background were found to extend to a maximum distance of approximately 450 m beyond the airport property in summer and fall. Modeling results show aircraft engine “run-up” is the most important source contribution to the maximum Pb concentration. Sensitivity analysis

  4. Assessing the impact of irrigation treatments on thiram residual trends: correspondence with numerical modelling and field-scale experiments.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Manika; Garg, N K; Joshi, Himanshu; Sharma, M P

    2014-03-01

    The present study was undertaken to study the trends of transport of thiram, a dithiocarbamate pesticide, at different time and depth in the fields under real field conditions for wheat crop. Numerical simulations were carried out by solving the coupled soil-water content movement and mass transport equations using HYDRUS- 1D. The supplementary data used for paramaterization of HYDRUS-1D comprise of irrigation treatments, climatic conditions, and soil characteristics. Results focus on the effects and influence of irrigation treatments on pesticide persistence and mobility. Modelling results were in good agreement with the experimentally determined thiram concentrations. Application of the model to measured field data of thiram movement indicates that the modelling approach can provide reliable and useful estimates of the mass flux of water and non-volatile pesticide in vadose zone. For policy-makers and planners, some regulation strategies are suggested for controlling inappropriate pesticide application under deficit irrigation or rain-fed conditions. PMID:24174119

  5. Modeling and assessing nitrogen delivery in the Calapooia River Watershed, and the impact of small streams delivery on downstream watershed

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Calapooia River is a major tributary to the Willamette River in western Oregon, which is characterized by a mountainous forested upland and a flat agricultural lowland. Here we report on a modeling study of watershed’s N budget, and quantify the influence of different...

  6. Bridging the scales in a eulerian air quality model to assess the impact of megacity pollution export at the regional level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Coll, Isabelle; Meleux, Frederik; Menut, Laurent

    2010-05-01

    Investigations of the impact of megacities on the atmospheric environment benefit from a multiscale approach, because megacities provide a large part of the total anthropogenic emissions of trace species that have an impact on air quality at all scales. At the local scale, the accumulation of these primary compounds is responsible for severe respiratory problems and for the alteration of buildings. At the regional scale, they lead to the formation of secondary compounds such as ozone or organic particulate matter witch - in addition to their adverse effects of health - have an impact on the climate equilibrium. Bridging the local and regional scales in a dynamic fashion would thus improve the characterisation of local pollution export from megacities and their regional impact. One of the main objectives of the CityZen project is to assess the interactions between spatial scales. This paper contributes to this activity with a focus on local to regional exchanges. The spatial interactions are often represented through off-line coupling of Chemistry Transport Models (CTM). The interactions from the global to the regional scale are well represented by state-of-the-art nested models. However the off-line coupling from the local to the regional and continental scales introduces a bias in the representation of local plumes on the chemistry of the larger scale. Such phenomena can be captured by means of two way nesting in a coupled model or data assimilation. But these approaches remain relatively costly. We present here the development and the results of an alternative multiscale approach making use of a horizontal stretched grid in the Eulerian CTM CHIMERE. This method consists in the introduction of local zooms over megacities in a continental chemistry-transport simulation within a single grid with variable resolution. It allows bridging online the spatial scales from the city (~1km resolution) to the continental area (~50km resolution). The CHIMERE grid being regular

  7. Hypervelocity impact damage assessment for Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coronado, Alex R.; Gibbins, Martin N.; Stern, Paul H.

    1988-01-01

    To inhibit damage and limit the probability of penetration of the Space Station pressure wall by micrometeoroids and orbital debris, a shield placed away from the wall is used to form a double wall. To determine shield effectiveness and assess impact damage, existing test data were reviewed and additional testing was performed for Space Station double wall designs. Empirical spallation and penetration functions derived from the data show that shield thickness and impact angle affect the damage to the wall. Thick shields reduce wall damage for low angle impacts but increase damage for oblique impacts. Multilayer insulation between the shield and wall reduces impact damage to the wall. A relationship between impact velocity and spall damage to the wall is demonstrated. Preliminary test results on Li-Al shield material indicate possible improved effectiveness over Al shields.

  8. Bio-safe, A Policy and Legislation Based Model For The Assessment of Impacts of Flood Prevention Measures On Biodiversity In River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Nooij, R. J. W.; Bio-Safe Team

    Within the framework of IRMA-SPONGE, a transnational version of the model BIO- SAFE (Spreadsheet Application For Evaluation of BIOdiversity) for the rivers Rhine and Meuse was developed. The model was specifically designed for policy and leg- islation based impact assessment of flood risk reduction measures on biodiversity in floodplains. BIO-SAFE is an assessment model that quantifies the policy and legisla- tion status of species in river basins for several taxonomic groups. The model uses data on presence of species and ecotopes. Results show that the BIO-SAFE method enables the user to express politically and legally based biodiversity values in quantitative terms and to compare biodiversity values for various taxonomic groups, landscape- ecological units (e.g. ecotopes) and physical planning scenarios. BIO-SAFE gives in- formation regarding the degree to which floodplain designs, observed or predicted trends of floodplain developments or actual values meet goals set in (inter)national agreements. Assessments with BIO-SAFE, in an early stage of the planning process, of actual situations and different scenarios for an area can help direct the planning process in the stage where this is still possible. Because of its policy-based character, BIO-SAFE yields complementary information to more established ecological biodi- versity indices and to single- species habitat models and ecological network analysis. Flood defence measures can lead to an increase of policy and legislation based bio- diversity values if already very valuable ecotopes are conserved and an increase of diversity of ecotopes is realised. Flood defence measures can also endanger these val- ues. In order to achieve optimal results regarding the attuning of conservation and development of biodiversity values on the one hand and flood defence measures on the other, it is recommended to aim at a balance between creating space in width and creating space in the depth. Uniform solutions must be avoided

  9. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  10. Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

    2011-12-01

    Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations

  11. The impact of floods and storms on the acoustic reflectivity of the inner continental shelf: A modeling assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratson, Lincoln F.; Hutton, E.W.H.; Kettner, A.J.; Syvitski, J.P.M.; Hill, P.S.; George, D.A.; Milligan, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    Flood deposition and storm reworking of sediments on the inner shelf can change the mixture of grain sizes on the seabed and thus its porosity, bulk density, bulk compressional velocity and reflectivity. Whether these changes are significant enough to be detectable by repeat sub-bottom sonar surveys, however, is uncertain. Here the question is addressed through numerical modeling. Episodic flooding of a large versus small river over the course of a century are modeled with HYDROTREND using the drainage basin characteristics of the Po and Pescara Rivers (respectively). A similarly long stochastic record of storms offshore of both rivers is simulated from the statistics of a long-term mooring recording of waves in the western Adriatic Sea. These time series are then input to the stratigraphic model SEDFLUX2D, which simulates flood deposition and storm reworking on the inner shelf beyond the river mouths. Finally, annual changes in seabed reflectivity across these shelf regions are computed from bulk densities output by SEDFLUX2D and compressional sound speeds computed from mean seafloor grain size using the analytical model of Buckingham [1997. Theory of acoustic attenuation, dispersion, and pulse propagation in unconsolidated granular materials including marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 102, 2579-2596; 1998. Theory of compressional and shear waves in fluidlike marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 103, 288-299; 2000. Wave propagation, stress relaxation, and grain-tograin shearing in saturated, unconsolidated marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 108, 2796-2815]. The modeling predicts reflectivities that change from 9 dB for muds farther offshore, values that agree with reflectivity measurements for these sediment types. On local scales of ???100 m, however, maximum changes in reflectivity are <0.5 dB. So are most annual changes in reflectivity over all water depths modeled (i.e., 0-35 m

  12. The impact of floods and storms on the acoustic reflectivity of the inner continental shelf: A modeling assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pratson, Lincoln F.; Hutton, Eric W. H.; Kettner, Albert J.; Syvitski, James P. M.; Hill, Paul S.; George, Douglas A.; Milligan, Timothy G.

    2007-02-01

    Flood deposition and storm reworking of sediments on the inner shelf can change the mixture of grain sizes on the seabed and thus its porosity, bulk density, bulk compressional velocity and reflectivity. Whether these changes are significant enough to be detectable by repeat sub-bottom sonar surveys, however, is uncertain. Here the question is addressed through numerical modeling. Episodic flooding of a large versus small river over the course of a century are modeled with HYDROTREND using the drainage basin characteristics of the Po and Pescara Rivers (respectively). A similarly long stochastic record of storms offshore of both rivers is simulated from the statistics of a long-term mooring recording of waves in the western Adriatic Sea. These time series are then input to the stratigraphic model SEDFLUX2D, which simulates flood deposition and storm reworking on the inner shelf beyond the river mouths. Finally, annual changes in seabed reflectivity across these shelf regions are computed from bulk densities output by SEDFLUX2D and compressional sound speeds computed from mean seafloor grain size using the analytical model of Buckingham [1997. Theory of acoustic attenuation, dispersion, and pulse propagation in unconsolidated granular materials including marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 102, 2579-2596; 1998. Theory of compressional and shear waves in fluidlike marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 103, 288-299; 2000. Wave propagation, stress relaxation, and grain-tograin shearing in saturated, unconsolidated marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 108, 2796-2815]. The modeling predicts reflectivities that change from <12 dB for sands on the innermost shelf to >9 dB for muds farther offshore, values that agree with reflectivity measurements for these sediment types. On local scales of ˜100 m, however, maximum changes in reflectivity are <0.5 dB. So are most annual changes in reflectivity

  13. Assessment of noise impact on the urban environment: a study on noise-prediction models. Environmental health series

    SciTech Connect

    Lang, J.

    1986-01-01

    The report identifies, compares, and evaluates the major methods developed in Europe and North America to predict noise levels resulting from urban-development projects. Hopefully, it will guide countries that have not yet developed their own noise-prediction models to choose the model most appropriate for their particular situation. It covers prediction methods for road traffic noise and railroad traffic noise in Austria, Czecheslovakia, France, both Germany's Hungary, Netherlands, Scandinavia, Switzerland, U.K. and USA, as well as the Commission of the European Communities, and a comparison of methods. It also covers prediction methods for industrial noise from Austria, both Germany's Netherlands, Scandinavia, and U.K., and discusses calculation methods for aircraft noise around airports.

  14. Assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francipane, A.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Noto, L. V.

    2013-12-01

    The response of watershed erosion rates to changes in climate is expected to be highly non-linear and thus demands for mechanistic approaches to improve our understanding of the underlying causes. In this study, the integrated geomorphic component tRIBS-Erosion of the physically-based, spatially distributed hydrological model, tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator, is used to analyze the sensitivity of small semi-arid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. Observed historic climate and downscaled realizations of general circulation models from CMIP3 inform the stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN (Advanced WEather GENerator), which is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the past historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) area in the Southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of CMIP3 multi-model climate change projections. The climate ensembles are used as forcing input to the hydrogeomorphic model that is applied to seven headwater basins of WGEW. The basin response in terms of runoff and sediment yield for climate ensembles representative of the historic past and future is simulated and probabilistic inferences on future changes in catchment runoff and sediment transport are drawn. The application of the model to multiple catchments also identifies the scaling relationship between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area. The study reveals that geomorphic differences among catchments influence the variability of sediment yield, as affected by possible future climates, much more as compared to runoff, which is instead strongly dominated by the climate forcing. Despite a large uncertainty inherent to climate change projections and imposed by the stochastic climate variability, the basin sediment yield is predicted to decrease

  15. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  16. Assessing Distributional Impacts of Forest Policies and Projects: An Integrated Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Zhi

    1994-01-01

    Identifies the demand for distributional impact assessment related to forest policies and projects and the linkages between distributional impacts and sustainable development. An integrated model is developed to assess the distributional impact of forest policies and projects. Studying the impact of the introduction of structural particleboard…

  17. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Trout Species in the Sierra Nevada Region of California Using Output from a Landscape Scale Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anthony, M. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Stewart, I. T.; Knouft, J.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools that combine data on the locations where a species is known to occur with data on the environment. The resulting species-environment relationships are then used to identify regions a species could occupy and are often used to make predictions about how a species will respond to climate change. The data used in SDMs generally exhibit a pattern known as spatial autocorrelation (SAC), which is the positive association between the proximity of sample locations. The presence of SAC violates the statistical assumptions that must be met for unbiased estimation of species-environment relationships and can cause traditional SDMs to exhibit low predictive accuracy. To determine the effects of SAC on predicting species' responses to climate change, the distributions of three species of trout were predicted throughout the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California. Measures of contemporary streamflow, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment concentration are based on model outputs from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) landscape scale hydrological model. SWAT-derived future hydrological conditions driven by downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation will alter these variables across the region, all of which have the ability to negatively impact the distribution of trout species. Trout distribution data along with data on contemporary stream flow, water temperature, dissolved oxygen and sediment concentration from the years 1990 to 1999 were used to develop both spatial and non-spatial SDMs for each species. These species-environment relationships along with data on future environmental conditions for the years 2050-2059 derived from three separate GCM scenarios were then used to predict the future distribution of each species. Predictions from spatial and non-spatial models will be discussed with a focus on the difference in area and

  18. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  19. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  20. Untapped potential of health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  1. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ying; Skjetne, Erik; Kobernus, Mike

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations. PMID:24188173

  2. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations. PMID:24188173

  3. Community Level Impact Assessment--Extension Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Mike D.; Doeksen, Gerald A.

    Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

  4. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  6. Impact of Occupational Exposure to Chemicals in Life Cycle Assessment: A Novel Characterization Model Based on Measured Concentrations and Labor Hours.

    PubMed

    Kijko, Gaël; Margni, Manuele; Partovi-Nia, Vahid; Doudrich, Greg; Jolliet, Olivier

    2015-07-21

    According to Lim et al., based on World Health Organization (WHO) data, hazardous chemicals in the workplace are responsible for over 370,000 premature deaths annually. Despite these high figures, life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) does not yet include a fully operational method to consider occupational impacts in its scope over the entire supply chain. This paper describes a novel approach to account for occupational exposure to chemicals by inhalation in LCA. It combines labor statistics and measured occupational concentrations of chemicals from the OSHA database to calculate operational LCIA characterization factors (i.e., intakes per hour worked and impact intensities for 19,069 organic chemical/sector combinations with confidence intervals across the entire U.S. manufacturing industry). For the seven chemicals that most contribute to the global impact, measured workplace concentrations range between 5 × 10(-4) and 3 × 10(3) mg/m(3). Carcinogenic impacts range over 4 orders of magnitude, from 1.3 × 10(-8) and up to 3.4 × 10(-4) DALY per blue-collar worker labor hour. The innovative approach set out in this paper assesses health impacts from occupational exposure to chemicals with population exposure to outdoor emissions, making it possible to integrate occupational exposure within LCIA. It broadens the LCIA scope to analyze hotspots and avoid impact shifting. PMID:26079305

  7. A Screening Method for Assessing Cumulative Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Alexeeff, George V.; Faust, John B.; August, Laura Meehan; Milanes, Carmen; Randles, Karen; Zeise, Lauren; Denton, Joan

    2012-01-01

    The California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) Environmental Justice Action Plan calls for guidelines for evaluating “cumulative impacts.” As a first step toward such guidelines, a screening methodology for assessing cumulative impacts in communities was developed. The method, presented here, is based on the working definition of cumulative impacts adopted by Cal/EPA [1]: “Cumulative impacts means exposures, public health or environmental effects from the combined emissions and discharges in a geographic area, including environmental pollution from all sources, whether single or multi-media, routinely, accidentally, or otherwise released. Impacts will take into account sensitive populations and socio-economic factors, where applicable and to the extent data are available.” The screening methodology is built on this definition as well as current scientific understanding of environmental pollution and its adverse impacts on health, including the influence of both intrinsic, biological factors and non-intrinsic socioeconomic factors in mediating the effects of pollutant exposures. It addresses disparities in the distribution of pollution and health outcomes. The methodology provides a science-based tool to screen places for relative cumulative impacts, incorporating both the pollution burden on a community- including exposures to pollutants, their public health and environmental effects- and community characteristics, specifically sensitivity and socioeconomic factors. The screening methodology provides relative rankings to distinguish more highly impacted communities from less impacted ones. It may also help identify which factors are the greatest contributors to a community’s cumulative impact. It is not designed to provide quantitative estimates of community-level health impacts. A pilot screening analysis is presented here to illustrate the application of this methodology. Once guidelines are adopted, the methodology can serve as a screening

  8. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C W

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  9. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  10. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  11. Imbibing Wisdom of Environmental Impact Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Ian

    1992-01-01

    Describes a learning module for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and the relationship between EIA objectives and those of the module. Discusses constraints influencing the form of the subject and the range of possible training techniques. Presents details of the module's structure and comments on its approach. (Contains 16 references.) (MDH)

  12. Development and Evaluation of an Air Quality Modeling Approach to Assess Near-Field Impacts of Lead Emissions from Piston-Engine Aircraft Operating on Leaded Aviation Gasoline

    EPA Science Inventory

    Since aviation gasoline is now the largest remaining source of lead (Pb) emissions to the air in the United States, there is increased interest by regulatory agencies and the public in assessing the impacts on residents living in close proximity to these sources. An air quality m...

  13. Let's put this in perspective: using dynamic simulation modelling to assess the impacts of farm-scale land management change on catchment-scale water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivers, Mark; Clarendon, Simon; Coles, Neil

    2013-04-01

    Natural Resource Management and Agri-industry development groups in Australia have invested considerable resources into the investigation of the economic, social and, particularly, environmental impacts of varying farming activities in a "catchment context". This research has resulted in the development of a much-improved understanding of the likely impacts of changed management practices at the farm-scale as well as the development of a number of conceptual models which place farming within this broader catchment context. The project discussed in this paper transformed a conceptual model of dairy farm phosphorus (P) management and transport processes into a more temporally and spatially dynamic model. This was then loaded with catchment-specific data and used as a "policy support tool" to allow the Australian dairy industry to examine the potential farm and catchment-scale impacts of varying dairy farm management practices within some key dairy farming regions. Models were developed, validated and calibrated using "STELLA©" dynamic modelling software for three catchments in which dairy is perceived as a significant land use. The models describe P movement and cycling within and through dairy farms in great detail and also estimate P transport through major source, sink and flow sectors of the catchments. A series of scenarios were executed for all three catchments which examined three main "groups" of tests: changes to farm P input rates; implementation of perceived environmental "Best Management Practices" (BMPs), and; changes to land use mosaics. Modifications to actual P input rates into dairy farms (not surprisingly) had a major effect on nutrient transport within and from the farms with a significant rise in nutrient loss rates at all scales with increasing fertiliser use. More surprisingly, however, even extensive environmental BMP implementation did not have marked effects on off-farm nutrient loss rates. On and off-farm riparian management implemented

  14. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  15. Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

    2015-12-01

    INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of

  16. SkiSim - A semi-distributed model to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiger, R.

    2009-04-01

    -2000 is +1,4°C to +3,5°C in the B1 scenario, and from +1,2°C to 5,7°C in the A1B scenario. Precipitation change in the A1B scenario is between +5% and +10%, in B1 it is +5% to +20%. The synthetic daily data produced by LARS-WG is the input data for the ski season model. Temperature and precipitation are distributed for each 100m altitude band, ranging from the lowest to the highest point of the ski area. The ski season model produces results for the whole ski area and not just for one single point (e.g. the lowest point in a ski area). Thus it is possible to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking in much greater detail than in previous studies. Based on these results, the consequences for winter tourism destinations can be assessed. Following the methodology of Breiling et al. (1997, 2008), the contribution of winter tourism to the regional economy and the number employments in tourism serve as an indicator for the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change. In total 120 ski areas in North and South Tyrol are investigated in the running project. Results of three ski areas, different in size and altitude, will be presented. Sources: Abegg, B., S. Agrawala, Crick, F., de Montfalcon, A. (2007): Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, Climate Change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD: 25-60. Breiling, M., Charamza, P., Skage, O. (1997): Klimasensibilität österreichischer Bezirke mit besonderer Berücksichtigung des Wintertourismus. Rapport 1,Department of Landscape Planning Alnarp, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Breiling, M., Charamza, P.,Feilmayr, W. (2008): Klimasensibilität des Salzburger Wintertourismus nach Bezirken, TTL, TU Vienna. Kleindienst, H. (2000): Snow hydrological models as tools for snow cover assessment and water resources management, Bern. Phd. Scott, D., G. McBoyle, Minogue, A. (2007): Climate Change

  17. Minidoka Dam Wildlife Impact Assessment: Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Robert C.; Meuleman, G. Allyn

    1989-03-01

    A wildlife impact assessment has been developed for the US Bureau of Reclamation's Minidoka Dam and Reservoir in south central Idaho. This assessment was conducted to fulfill requirements of the Fish and Wildlife Program. Specific objectives of this study included the following: select target wildlife species, and identify their current status and management goals; estimate the net effects on target wildlife species resulting from hydroelectric development and operation; recommend protection, mitigation, and enhancement goals for target wildlife species affected by hydroelectric development and operation; and consult and coordinate impact assessment activities with the Northwest Power Planning Council, Bonneville Power Administration, US Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee, and other entities expressing interest in the project. 62 refs., 2 figs., 11 tabs.

  18. A new approach for environmental justice impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Wilkinson, C.H.; Brumburgh, G.P.; Edmunds, T.A.; Kay, D.

    1996-03-01

    President Clinton`s Executive Order 12898 calls for examination of disproportionately high and adverse impacts to minority and low-income communities. In addition to demographic mapping, environmental justice analyses should also include quantitative impact assessment to show presence or absence of disproportionate impacts. This study demonstrates use of a geographic information system (GIS) and a computer model. For this demonstration, a safety analysis report and a computer code were used to develop impact assessment data from a hypothetical facility accident producing a radiological airborne plume. The computer code modeled the plume, plotted dose contours, and provided latitude and longitude coordinates for transfer to the GIS. The GIS integrated and mapped the impact and demographic data toprovide a graphical representation of the plume with respect to the population. Impacts were then analyzed. The GIS was used to estimate the total dose to the exposed population under the plume, the dose to the low-income population under the plume, and the dose to the minority population under the plume. Impacts among the population groups were compared to determine whether a dispropotionate share of the impacts were borne by minority or low-income populations.

  19. Assessment of Long-Term Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in Eastern China Using High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavas, D. R.; Izaurralde, C.; Thomson, A.

    2008-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work utilizes high-resolution regional climate model output to assess potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in eastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10 percent decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30N, 108E] to [42N, 123E]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5 percent for rice, 8.3 percent for canola, 18.6 percent for corn, 22.9 percent for potato, and 24.9 percent for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12 percent. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a

  20. Assessment by regional modelling of the impact of monopile foundations on the hydrodynamics and sediment transport: case of Courseulles-sur-Mer (France) wind farm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivier, Aurélie; Bennis, Anne-Claire; Pinon, Grégory; Magar, Vanesa; Gross, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Offshore monopile foundations of wind turbines modify hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local scale and also at regional scale. The aim of this work is to assess these changes and to parametrize them in a regional model. These modifications were previously evaluated using the regional circulation model MARS3D (Lazure and Dumas, 2008) in tests-cases (Rivier et al., 2014) using two approaches: in the first approach, monopiles are explicitly modelled in the mesh as dry cells and in the second approach a sub-grid parametrization which considers the drag force exerted by a monopile on the flow is used. The sub-grid parametrization is improved close to the bed in this paper by adding a drag force term in the momentum equations, source terms in the turbulence model and by increasing the bed shear stress at monopile location. Changes in hydrodynamics regime, especially near-bed, affect sediment transport regime and modifications due to monopiles on sediment dynamics is also investigated using the MARS3D sediment transport module (Le Hir et al., 2011) which solves the advection-diffusion equations. Test-cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France) where an offshore wind farm is planned to be built. Velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and bed thickness changes due to the monopile simulated by both approaches are compared to each other and to experimental measurements made in a flume at the University of Caen or to published data (e.g. Roulund et al., 2005; Dargahi,1989). Then the model is applied in a real configuration on an area including the future offshore wind farm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed along a tidal cycle. Currents increase at the side edge of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream the monopile. Turbulent kinetic

  1. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    Alternative methods for quantifying the economic impacts associated with future increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ were examined. A literature search was undertaken, both to gain a better understanding of the ways in which CO/sub 2/ buildup could affect crop growth and to identify the different methods available for assessing the impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields. The second task involved identifying the scope of both the direct and indirect economic impacts that could occur as a result of CO/sub 2/-induced changes in crop yields. The third task then consisted of a comprehensive literature search to identify what types of economic models could be used effectively to assess the kinds of direct and indirect economic impacts that could conceivably occur as a result of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, multi-country agricultural trade models, and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The fourth and final task of this research involved synthesizing the information gathered in the previous tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes related to agricultural production.

  2. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Li, Long

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  3. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution: The Impact of Demographics on Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution

    PubMed Central

    Bønløkke, Jakob; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed health impact assessment model, which models four major diseases and mortality causes in addition to all-cause mortality. The modeling was at the municipal level, which divides the approximately 5.5 M residents in Denmark into 99 municipalities. Three sets of demographic assumptions were used: (1) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution. PMID:23762084

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  5. A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

  6. Probabilistic Assessment of Asteroid Impacts: Observations and Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Stanford Engineering Risk Research Group has developed a method for assessing the risks associated with asteroid impacts with the Earth. The model is intended to inform policy and decision makers who are charged with allocating limited resources to planetary defense missions. Our model and method have been used to perform baseline assessments of risk and compare options for mitigation. We extend that analysis to examine the risk reductions associated with observation missions that have been active over the last decade. We present the basic model, summarize our past work, describe our current results and findings, and examine the role of observations in reducing risks.

  7. Assessing Meaningful Impact: Moving Beyond the Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buxner, S.; Bass, K.; Castori, P.; Wenger, M.

    2014-07-01

    Evaluation of program impacts is an essential part of program implementation from proposal writing, justifying expenses to funders, making improvements to programs, and demonstrating the value of program to stakeholders. Often, funding agencies ask for metrics but may not ask for more substantive outcomes. Alternatively, funding agencies are now asking for more and more evidence of program impacts resulting in broad questions about the type of assessments that are most appropriate for program evaluation. Assessing meaningful impacts presents no one-size-fits-all solution for all programs. Appropriate assessment is based on program goals, audience, activitie s, and resources. Panelists led a discussion about how to choose meaningful assessment for different situations, presenting examples from their own work. One of the best indicators of the value of a teacher professional development workshop is whether teachers can apply what they have learned to their classroom practice. Kristin Bass spoke about her experience documenting classroom implementation for the Galileo Educator Network (GEN) professional development project.

  8. Roles of social impact assessment practitioners

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Cecilia H.M. Ho, Wing-chung

    2015-01-15

    The effectiveness of social impact assessment (SIA) hinges largely on the capabilities and ethics of the practitioners, yet few studies have dedicated to discuss the expectations for these professionals. Recognising this knowledge gap, we employed the systemic review approach to construct a framework of roles of SIA practitioners from literature. Our conceptual framework encompasses eleven roles, namely project manager of SIA, practitioner of SIA methodologies, social researcher, social strategy developer, social impact management consultant, community developer, visionary, public involvement specialist, coordinator, SIA researcher, and educator. Although these roles have been stratified into three overarching categories, the project, community and SIA development, they are indeed interrelated and should be examined together. The significance of this study is threefold. First, it pioneers the study of the roles of SIA practitioners in a focused and systematic manner. Second, it informs practitioners of the expectations of them thereby fostering professionalism. Third, it prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment. - Highlights: • We adopt systematic review to construct a framework of roles of social impact assessment (SIA) practitioners from literature. • We use three overarching categorises to stratify the eleven roles we proposed. • This work is a novel attempt to study the work as a SIA practitioner and build a foundation for further exploration. • The framework informs practitioners of the expectations on them thus reinforcing professionalism. • The framework also prepares the public for SIAs by elucidating the functions and values of the assessment.

  9. Modelling the fate of nonylphenolic compounds in the Seine River--part 2: assessing the impact of global change on daily concentrations.

    PubMed

    Cladière, Mathieu; Bonhomme, Céline; Vilmin, Lauriane; Gasperi, Johnny; Flipo, Nicolas; Habets, Florence; Tassin, Bruno

    2014-01-15

    This study aims at modelling the daily concentrations of nonylphenolic compounds such as 4-nonylphenol (4-NP), nonylphenol monoethoxylate (NP1EO) and nonylphenoxy acetic acid (NP1EC) within the Seine River downstream of Paris City for over a year, firstly in the present state (year 2010) and for years 2050 and 2100 in order to assess the consequences of global change on the fate of nonylphenolic compounds in the Seine river. Concentrations were first simulated for the year 2010 and compared to monthly measured values downstream of Paris. To achieve this goal, the hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model, ProSe, was updated to simulate the fate of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC. The Seine upstream and Oise River (tributaries of the Seine River) concentrations are estimated according to concentrations-flow relationships. For Seine Aval wastewater treatment plant (SA-WWTP), the concentrations are considered constant and the median values of 11 campaigns are used. The biodegradation kinetics of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC in the Seine River were deduced from the results of the companion paper. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient indicates a good efficiency to simulate the concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EC and NP1EO over an entire year. Eight scenarios were built to forecast the impacts of global warming (flow decrease), population growth (SA-WWTP flow increase) and optimisation of wastewater treatment (improvement of the quality of effluents) on annual concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EO and NP1EC at Meulan by 2050 and 2100. As a result, global warming and population growth may increase the concentrations of 4-NP, NP1EC and NP1EO, especially during low-flow conditions, while the optimisation of wastewater treatment is an efficient solution to balance the global change by reducing WWTP outflows. PMID:24095968

  10. Utility of fuzzy cross-impact simulation in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Parashar, A.; Paliwal, R.; Rambabu, P.

    1997-11-01

    Fuzzy cross-impact simulation is a qualitative technique, where interactions within a system are represented by a cross-impact matrix that includes linguistic elements. It can be used effectively to visualize dynamic evolution of a system. The utility of the fuzzy cross-impact simulation approach is: (1) in dealing with uncertainties in environment-development systems; (2) scoping cumulative effect assessment; and (3) integrating societal response structure in environment impact assessment. Use of the method is illustrated in a case concerning the textile industry in Indore, India. Consequences of policy alternatives for cleanup and pollution abatement are predicted in terms of environmental quality and quality of life, using the simulation model. The consequence analysis is used to arrive at preferred policy options.

  11. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  12. 40 CFR 227.22 - Assessment of impact.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Assessment of impact. 227.22 Section... FOR THE EVALUATION OF PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN DUMPING OF MATERIALS Impact of the Proposed Dumping on Other Uses of the Ocean § 227.22 Assessment of impact. The assessment of impact on other...

  13. From impact assessment to recommendation: How are the impact assessment results presented and used?

    SciTech Connect

    Sager, T.

    1995-07-01

    Most work on impact assessment (IA) deals with data, technique, and procedures for making the assessment. While these things can influence the final choice of planning alternative, it is equally important how the assessment results are used in the political decision process. The case material concerns integrated transportation and land use plans for the 10 largest urban regions in Norway. It is demonstrated that application of the impact assessment results varies widely among the cities. The information potential of the impact calculations is considerably underexploited in many cases, and assessment results seem too easily ignored in the process of reaching a recommendation on planning strategy. Some factors are identified and discussed in an attempt to shed light on this phenomenon.

  14. AIDA: Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, Patrick; Cheng, A.; Galvez, A.; Reed, C.; Carnelli, I.; Abell, P.; Ulamec, S.; Rivkin, A.; Biele, J.; Murdoch, N.

    2015-03-01

    AIDA (Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment) is a project of a joint mission demonstration of asteroid deflection and characterisation of the kinetic impact effects. It involves the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (with support from members of NASA centers including Goddard Space Flight Center, Johnson Space Center, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory), and the European Space Agency (with support from members of the french CNRS/Cte dAzur Observatory and the german DLR). This assessment will be done using a binary asteroid target. AIDA consists of two independent but mutually supporting mission concepts, one of which is the asteroid kinetic impactor and the other is the characterisation spacecraft. The objective and status of the project will be presented.

  15. Flood Impact Modelling to support decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    Much of what is known about the impacts of landuse change and Natural Flood Management (NFM) is at the local/plot scale. Evidence of the downstream impacts at the larger catchment scale is limited. However, the strategic and financial decisions of land managers, stakeholders and policy makers are made at the larger scale. There are a number of techniques that have the potential to scale local impacts to the catchment scale. This poster will show findings for the 30km2 Leven catchment, North Yorkshire, England. A NFM approach has been adopted by the Environment Agency to reduce flood risk within the catchment. A dense network of stream level gauges were installed in the catchment at the commencement of this project to gain a detailed understanding of the catchment behaviour during storm events. A novel Flood Impact Modelling (FIM) approach has been adopted which uses the network of gauges to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of source locations. Using a combination of expert opinion and local evidence, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed changes in land use management and NFM on flood events. A number of potential future landuse and NFM scenarios have been modelled to investigate their impact on flood peaks. These modelled outcomes are mapped to a simple Decision Support Matrix (DSM). The DSM encourages end users (e.g. land managers and policy makers) to develop an NFM scheme by studying the degree to which local runoff can be attenuated and how that flow will propagate through the network to the point of impact. The DSM relates the impact on flood peaks in terms of alterations to soil management practices and landscape flow connectivity (e.g. soil underdrainage), which can be easily understood by farmers and land managers. The DSM and the FIM together provide a simple to use and transparent modelling tool, making best use of expert knowledge, to support decision making.

  16. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: a preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    SciTech Connect

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01

    In this preliminary and relatively short modeling effort, an initial assessment is made for the potential air quality implications of climate change in California. The focus is mainly on the effects of changes in temperature and related meteorological and emission factors on ozone formation. Photochemical modeling is performed for two areas in the state: the Los Angeles Basin and the Sacramento Valley.

  17. Assessing the impact of oil spills on a commercial fishery. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-11-01

    An oil spill fishery impact assessment system composed of fishery, hydrodynamic, ichthyoplankton transport and fates submodels has been applied to assess the probable impact of oil spills on several key fisheries in the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine region. The model system addresses direct impacts of oil on the commercial fishery through hydrocarbon induced egg and larval mortality.

  18. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-01-01

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated. PMID:26377091

  19. Gross national happiness as a framework for health impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Pennock, Michael; Ura, Karma

    2011-01-15

    The incorporation of population health concepts and health determinants into Health Impact Assessments has created a number of challenges. The need for intersectoral collaboration has increased; the meaning of 'health' has become less clear; and the distinctions between health impacts, environmental impacts, social impacts and economic impacts have become increasingly blurred. The Bhutanese concept of Gross National Happiness may address these issues by providing an over-arching evidence-based framework which incorporates health, social, environmental and economic contributors as well as a number of other key contributors to wellbeing such as culture and governance. It has the potential to foster intersectoral collaboration by incorporating a more limited definition of health which places the health sector as one of a number of contributors to wellbeing. It also allows for the examination of the opportunity costs of health investments on wellbeing, is consistent with whole-of-government approaches to public policy and emerging models of social progress.

  20. AIDA: The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Cheng, A. F.; Reed, C.; Ulamec, S.; Biele, J.; Abell, P.; Landis, R.

    2013-09-01

    The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission, a joint effort of ESA, JHU/APL, NASA, OCA, and DLR, is the first demonstration of asteroid deflection and assessment via kinetic impact. AIDA consists of two independent but mutually supporting mission elements, one of which is the asteroid kinetic impactor and the other is the characterization spacecraft. These two missions are, respectively, JHU/APL's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the European Space Agency's Asteroid Investigation Mission (AIM) missions. As in the separate DART and AIM studies, the target of this mission is the binary asteroid [65803] Didymos in October, 2022. For a successful joint mission, one spacecraft, DART, would impact the secondary of the Didymos system while AIM would observe and measure any change in the relative orbit. AIM will be the first probe to characterise a binary asteroid, especially from the dynamical point of view, but also considering its interior and subsurface composition. The mission concept focuses on the monitoring aspects i.e., the capability to determine in-situ the key physical properties of a binary asteroid playing a role in the system's dynamic behavior. DART will be the first ever space mission to deflect the trajectory of an asteroid in a measurable way.- It is expected that the deflection can be measured as a change in the relative orbit period with a precision better than 10%. The joint AIDA mission will return vital data to determine the momentum transfer efficiency of the kinetic impact [1,2].

  1. Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

    2014-06-01

    This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

  2. Using computational modeling to assess the impact of clinical decision support on cancer screening improvement strategies within the community health centers.

    PubMed

    Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A

    2014-10-01

    Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman's Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability. PMID:24953241

  3. Modeling dynamics of (137)Cs in forest surface environments: Application to a contaminated forest site near Fukushima and assessment of potential impacts of soil organic matter interactions.

    PubMed

    Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Koarashi, Jun

    2016-05-01

    A process-based model for (137)Cs transfer in forest surface environments was developed to assess the dynamic behavior of Fukushima-derived (137)Cs in a Japanese forest. The model simulation successfully reproduced the observed data from 3year migration of (137)Cs in the organic and mineral soil layers at a contaminated forest near Fukushima. The migration of (137)Cs from the organic layer to the mineral soil was explained by the direct deposition pattern on the forest floor and the turnover of litter materials in the organic layer under certain ecological conditions. Long-term predictions indicated that more than 90% of the deposited (137)Cs would remain within the top 5cm of the soil for up to 30years after the accident, suggesting that the forest acts as an effective long-term reservoir of (137)Cs with limited transfer via the groundwater pathway. The model was also used to explore the potential impacts of soil organic matter (SOM) interactions on the mobility and bioavailability of (137)Cs in the soil-plant system. The simulation results for hypothetical organic soils with modified parameters of (137)Cs turnover revealed that the SOM-induced reduction of (137)Cs adsorption elevates the fraction of dissolved (137)Cs in the soil solution, thereby increasing the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs without substantially altering the fractional distribution of (137)Cs in the soil. Slower fixation of (137)Cs on the flayed edge site of clay minerals and enhanced mobilization of the clay-fixed (137)Cs in organic-rich soils also appeared to elevate the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs by increasing the fraction of the soil-adsorbed (exchangeable) (137)Cs. A substantial proportion (approximate 30%-60%) of (137)Cs in these organic-rich soils was transferred to layers deeper than 5cm decades later. These results suggested that SOM influences the behavior of (137)Cs in forests over a prolonged period through alterations of adsorption and fixation in the soil. PMID:26897402

  4. Quantitative Assessment of the Potential of Afforestation for Carbon Dioxide Removal: Evaluating carbon sequestration and biogeophysical impacts in a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Littleton, E. W.

    2015-12-01

    This study presents a new method for representing permanent afforestation in Earth System models. Afforestation has attracted interest as an option to help to slow or reverse the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the next century. However, its potential is poorly constrained with regard to land availability, rates of tree growth and carbon accumulation, and potential side effects. This study aims to provide quantitative assessment of the carbon removal potential and side effects of 21st century afforestation using a dynamic global vegetation model, in contrast to the majority of previous estimates which have used bookkeeping methods. The land surface model JULES was used to simulate needleleaf afforestation on abandoned agricultural land during the 21st century under two future pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These results are compared to a control scenario in which natural succession is allowed to act on the same area of land. This study finds considerable spatial variation in the final carbon sequestration potential of afforestation sites. In addition to dieback and marginal growth in many regions, many sites showed minimal additionality of forest areas compared to natural succession. The most suitable sites were in Eastern Europe, central China and central North America. There was no major difference in the general spatial pattern of suitability between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2100. Overall, this study produced a significantly smaller estimate of the CDR potential of permanent afforestation than previous studies have. The additional carbon stored in suitable sites by 2100 was only 19 Pg C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 Pg C (RCP8.5), a mean of 68 tC/ha. This research also explored the biogeophysical impacts of afforestation on surface energy balance and hydrological cycles. The decrease in albedo caused by afforestation significantly offset the radiative forcing benefits of the carbon removal, although this effect was very sensitive to input assumptions. Flooding results

  5. Impacts of a Warming Arctic - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    2004-12-01

    The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels. Impacts of a Warming Arctic is a plain language synthesis of the key findings of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), designed to be accessible to policymakers and the broader public. The ACIA is a comprehensively researched, fully referenced, and independently reviewed evaluation of arctic climate change. It has involved an international effort by hundreds of scientists. This report provides vital information to society as it contemplates its responses to one of the greatest challenges of our time. It is illustrated in full color throughout.

  6. STRIP MINE DRAINAGE--AQUATIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The overall objective of this research program is to demonstrate methodologies for predicting, on the basis of characteristics of the site to be mined, the impact of strip mining on downstream biotic communities. To accomplish this objective and provide data for model verificatio...

  7. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction. PMID:18853818

  8. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  9. Injury risk assessment of non-lethal projectile head impacts.

    PubMed

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as "force wall approach" suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the "force wall approach" and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics. PMID:25400712

  10. Injury Risk Assessment of Non-Lethal Projectile Head Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Oukara, Amar; Nsiampa, Nestor; Robbe, Cyril; Papy, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Kinetic energy non-lethal projectiles are used to impart sufficient effect onto a person in order to deter uncivil or hazardous behavior with a low probability of permanent injury. Since their first use, real cases indicate that the injuries inflicted by such projectiles may be irreversible and sometimes lead to death, especially for the head impacts. Given the high velocities and the low masses involved in such impacts, the assessment approaches proposed in automotive crash tests and sports may not be appropriate. Therefore, there is a need of a specific approach to assess the lethality of these projectiles. In this framework, some recent research data referred in this article as “force wall approach” suggest the use of three lesional thresholds (unconsciousness, meningeal damages and bone damages) that depend on the intracranial pressure. Three corresponding critical impact forces are determined for a reference projectile. Based on the principle that equal rigid wall maximal impact forces will produce equal damage on the head, these limits can be determined for any other projectile. In order to validate the consistence of this innovative method, it is necessary to compare the results with other existing assessment methods. This paper proposes a comparison between the “force wall approach” and two different head models. The first one is a numerical model (Strasbourg University Finite Element Head Model-SUFEHM) from Strasbourg University; the second one is a mechanical surrogate (Ballistics Load Sensing Headform-BLSH) from Biokinetics. PMID:25400712

  11. Applicability of the CompMech trout model to hydropower impact assessment. A case study of high-priority environmental issues at Pacific Gas and Electric: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Railsback, S.F.; Yeoman, E.H.

    1994-07-01

    The primary purpose of the CompMech trout program is the improved assessment of instream flow needs, but its applicability to assessment of other important aquatic environmental issues was examined using Pacific Gas and Electric`s hydroelectric system as a case study. High-priority aquatic issues for PG&E hydrogen were identified by examining the characteristics of the hydro projects and trends in environmental regulation of hydro. The CompMech trout program is expected to develop improved assessment methods for a number of high-priority issues, although CompMech models would require adaptation to address some issues.

  12. Elements of impact assessment: a case study with cyber attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Shanchieh Jay; Holsopple, Jared; Liu, Daniel

    2009-05-01

    Extensive discussions have taken place in recent year regarding impact assessment - what is it and how can we do it? It is especially intriguing in this modern era where non-traditional warfare has caused either information overload or limited understanding of adversary doctrines. This work provides a methodical discussion of key elements for the broad definition of impact assessment (IA). The discussion will start with a process flow involving components related to IA. Two key functional components, impact estimation and threat projection, are compared and illustrated in detail. These details include a discussion of when to model red and blue knowledge. Algorithmic approaches will be discussed, augmented with lessons learned from our IA development for cyber situation awareness. This paper aims at providing the community with a systematic understanding of IA and its open issues with specific examples.

  13. Ultrasonic impact damage assessment in 3D woven composite materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannai, E.; Lamboul, B.; Roche, J. M.

    2015-03-01

    An ultrasonic nondestructive methodology is proposed for the assessment of low velocity impact damage in a 3D woven composite material. The output data is intended for material scientists and numerical scientists to validate the damage tolerance performance of the manufactured materials and the reliability of damage modeling predictions. A depth-dependent threshold based on the reflectivity of flat bottom holes is applied to the ultrasonic data to remove the structural noise and isolate echoes of interest. The methodology was applied to a 3 mm thick 3D woven composite plate impacted with different energies. An artificial 3D representation of the detected echoes is proposed to enhance the spatial perception of the generated damage by the end user. The paper finally highlights some statistics made on the detected echoes to quantitatively assess the impact damage resistance of the tested specimens.

  14. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  15. 75 FR 51468 - Published Privacy Impact Assessments on the Web

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-20

    ... SECURITY Office of the Secretary Published Privacy Impact Assessments on the Web AGENCY: Privacy Office... Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is making available thirty-five Privacy Impact Assessments on various...'s Web site between October 1, 2009 and May 31, 2010. DATES: The Privacy Impact Assessments will...

  16. MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT MODEL (MULTIMED)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Multimedia Exposure Assessment Model (MULTIMED) for exposure assessment simulates the movement of contaminants leaching from a waste disposal facility. The model consists of a number of modules which predict concentrations at a receptor due to transport in the subsurface, sur...

  17. Assessing the environmental impacts of aircraft noise and emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahashabde, Anuja; Wolfe, Philip; Ashok, Akshay; Dorbian, Christopher; He, Qinxian; Fan, Alice; Lukachko, Stephen; Mozdzanowska, Aleksandra; Wollersheim, Christoph; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Locke, Maryalice; Waitz, Ian A.

    2011-01-01

    With the projected growth in demand for commercial aviation, many anticipate increased environmental impacts associated with noise, air quality, and climate change. Therefore, decision-makers and stakeholders are seeking policies, technologies, and operational procedures that balance environmental and economic interests. The main objective of this paper is to address shortcomings in current decision-making practices for aviation environmental policies. We review knowledge of the noise, air quality, and climate impacts of aviation, and demonstrate how including environmental impact assessment and quantifying uncertainties can enable a more comprehensive evaluation of aviation environmental policies. A comparison is presented between the cost-effectiveness analysis currently used for aviation environmental policy decision-making and an illustrative cost-benefit analysis. We focus on assessing a subset of the engine NO X emissions certification stringency options considered at the eighth meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection. The FAA Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) is employed to conduct the policy assessments. We show that different conclusions may be drawn about the same policy options depending on whether benefits and interdependencies are estimated in terms of health and welfare impacts versus changes in NO X emissions inventories as is the typical practice. We also show that these conclusions are sensitive to a variety of modeling uncertainties. While our more comprehensive analysis makes the best policy option less clear, it represents a more accurate characterization of the scientific and economic uncertainties underlying impacts and the policy choices.

  18. Assessment strategy for land-use impacts on natural resources

    SciTech Connect

    McCord, R.; Dale, V.H.; King, A.W.

    1995-06-01

    An assessment strategy for land-use impacts on natural resources on DoD/DOE lands is being developed under the DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. The {open_quotes}strawman{close_quotes} for the assessment strategy includes an integration of spatially-explicit environmental data from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with computer models which simulate changes in land-cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models will also simulate susceptibility of selected species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The interpretation of the modelling results will be performed with a risk assessment framework. Such a framework will allow for the comparison of numerous, proposed land-use scenarios to be considered during the planning process for ecosystem management. The development of a single methodology which can be applied to many sites will allow for inter-site comparisons and regional assessments. A standard approach will also help prioritize the collection and maintenance of natural resource information about the DoD and DOE lands. This {open_quotes}strawman{close_quotes} will be refined based on needs identified by DoD and DOE land managers, and the sensitivity of the results to the varying resolution of resource information. This assessment strategy supports the concurrent objectives associated with the mission and use of the site and the conservation of its natural resources.

  19. Assessing the Impact of the Cambridge International Acceleration Program on U.S. University Determinants of Success: A Multi-Level Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Stuart; Warren, Jayne; Gill, Tim

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the research being conducted by Cambridge International Examinations (Cambridge) to ensure that its international assessments prepare students as well as other acceleration programs for continued study in U.S. colleges and universities. The study, which builds on previous freshman GPA data modeling work using data supplied…

  20. FORHYCS - a coupled, spatially distributed eco-hydrological model for assessing climate and land use change impact in Switzerland at landscape scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speich, Matthias; Lischke, Heike; Scherstjanoi, Marc; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2016-04-01

    Various modeling studies have shown that global climate and land use change are expected to have important impacts on the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of European mountainous regions. However, these models focus on either hydrological or ecological processes, while the respective other processes are represented in a simplified manner, e.g. using static parameters or empirical process formulations. This way, dynamic feedbacks between the water cycle and forest dynamics are neglected, which can influence long-term predictions. Integration of dynamic hydrological and ecological models increases the confidence in long-term forecasts by explicitly addressing this feedback. We present FORHYCS, a spatially distributed, coupled eco-hydrological model. FORHYCS is designed for application in temperate and Alpine regions at landscape scale, and consists of the integration of the rainfall-runoff model PREVAH and the forest-landscape model TreeMig. Both these models have previously been used in long-term climate impact studies in Switzerland. In the new, coupled model, both individual models are run simultaneously while exchanging information via a set of interface variables. The forest-landscape model is driven by annual bioclimatic variables (drought stress, snow cover duration, degree-day sum and winter chill), which are obtained through yearly integration of the local water balance as calculated by the hydrological model at an hourly time step. Growth, establishment and mortality of tree species, as simulated by the forest-landscape model, are used to calculate vegetation parameters (leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover), which in turn influence the partitioning of precipitation into interception loss, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture storage and runoff. Furthermore, the vegetation cover in each grid cell is used to determine and update its land cover class, which allows the simulation of forest advancement or retreat and its hydrological

  1. Tsunami Forecast Technology for Asteroid Impact Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.

    2015-12-01

    Over 75% of all historically documented tsunamis have been generated by earthquakes. As the result, all existing Tsunami Warning and Forecast systems focus almost exclusively on detecting, warning and forecasting earthquake-generated tsunamis.The sequence of devastating tsunamis across the globe over the past 10 years has significantly heightened awareness and preparation activities associated with these high-impact events. Since the catastrophic 2004 Sumatra tsunami, NOAA has invested significant efforts in modernizing the U.S. tsunami warning system. Recent developments in tsunami modeling capability, inundation forecasting, sensing networks, dissemination capability and local preparation and mitigation activities have gone a long way toward enhancing tsunami resilience within the United States. The remaining quarter of the tsunami hazard problem is related to other mechanisms of tsunami generation, that may not have received adequate attention. Among those tsunami sources, the asteroid impact may be the most exotic, but possible one of the most devastating tsunami generation mechanisms. Tsunami forecast capabilities that have been developed for the tsunami warning system can be used to explore both, hazard assessment and the forecast of a tsunami generated by the asteroid impact. Existing tsunami flooding forecast technology allows for forecast for non-seismically generated tsunamis (asteroid impact, meteo-generated tsunamis, landslides, etc.), given an adequate data for the tsunami source parameters. Problems and opportunities for forecast of tsunamis from asteroid impact will be discussed. Preliminary results of impact-generated tsunami analysis for forecast and hazard assessment will be presented.

  2. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  3. Assessing radiation impact at a protected coastal sand dune site: an intercomparison of models for estimating the radiological exposure of non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Wood, Michael D; Beresford, Nicholas A; Barnett, Catherine L; Copplestone, David; Leah, Richard T

    2009-12-01

    This paper presents the application of three publicly available biota dose assessment models (the ERICA Tool, R&D128/SP1a and RESRAD-BIOTA) to an assessment of the Drigg coastal sand dunes. Using measured (90)Sr, (99)Tc, (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239+240)Pu and (241)Am activity concentrations in sand dune soil, activity concentration and dose rate predictions are made for a range of organisms including amphibians, birds, invertebrates, mammals, reptiles, plants and fungi. Predicted biota activity concentrations are compared to measured data where available. The main source of variability in the model predictions is the transfer parameters used and it is concluded that developing the available transfer databases should be a focus of future research effort. The value of taking an informed user approach to investigate the way in which models may be expected to be applied in practice is highlighted and a strategy for the future development of intercomparison exercises is presented. PMID:19447531

  4. Assessing the economic impact of indirect liquefaction process improvements: Volume 1, Development of the integrated indirect liquefaction model and baseline case

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, D.; Tomlinson, G.C. . Civil Systems Div.)

    1990-10-01

    This report documents the development of an integrated indirect liquefaction system model, which processes input coal to refined liquid products, and the model's application in the analysis of a baseline case. The baseline case uses Shell gasification of coal followed by gas cleaning to produce a clean synthesis gas for slurry-phase Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The raw liquid products are refined to produce gasoline and diesel. Costs of liquid products have been estimated for the baseline plant. The model also alloys many sensitivity studies to be performed so that the economic impacts of research and development advances can be quantified. When used in this manner, the model can provide research guidance for future indirect liquefaction studies. 18 refs., 12 figs., 12 tabs.

  5. A comparison between monitoring and dispersion modeling approaches to assess the impact of aviation on concentrations of black carbon and nitrogen oxides at Los Angeles International Airport.

    PubMed

    Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Tripodis, Yorghos; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Levy, Jonathan I

    2015-09-15

    Aircraft activity and airport operations can increase combustion-related air pollutant concentrations, but it is difficult to distinguish aviation emissions from traffic and other local sources. Emission inventories are uncertain and dispersion models may not capture aircraft plume complexity; ambient monitoring data require detailed statistical analyses to extract aviation signals. The goal of this study is to compare two modeling approaches including monitoring-based regression models and the EDMS/AERMOD dispersion model, informing improvements and allowing quantitation of aviation impacts on air quality through multi-pollutant sensitivity and multi-monitor fate/transport analyses. Aggregate concentration comparisons are similar, though diurnal patterns show potential weaknesses in near-field dispersion, treatment of overnight conditions, and emission inventory accuracy. PMID:25956147

  6. Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

  7. Groundwater resources impact assessment for triazine herbicides

    SciTech Connect

    Waldman, E.; Barrett, M.R.; Behl, E.

    1996-10-01

    The Environmental Fate and Ground Water Branch of EPA`s Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) has conducted a Water Resources Impact Assessment of the potential for triazine herbicides to be transported to ground and surface waters (only ground-water is discussed in this paper). The herbicides discussed in this document include atrazine, cyanazine, simazine, and prometon. Part of OPP`s regulatory mission is to prevent contamination of ground and surface water resources resulting from the normal use of registered pesticides. OPP has recently produced several resource documents to support such activities at the federal, state, and local levels (e.g., the Pesticides and Ground-Water Strategy and the Pesticides in Ground Water Database). This Water Resources Impact Assessment will also be useful in assisting state and regional agencies in customizing risk reduction strategies and to implement proposed pollution prevention measures. Major conclusions include: Atrazine is the most frequently detected pesticide in ground water in virtually the entire Midwestern United States, and especially in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. The Pesticides in Ground Water Database 1992 Report indicates that atrazine has been detected in 32 out of the 40 states that have reported monitoring data, and in 1,512 wells (6%) of the wells sampled. Based on EPA`s National Pesticide Survey (NPS), 4.7% of rural domestic drinking water wells in the U.S. (490,000 wells) are estimated to contain atrazine, mostly at concentrations less than 0.12 {mu}g/L (the MCL for atrazine is 3 {mu}g/L). Triazine herbicides other than atrazine (simazine, cyanazine, and prometon) have had much less impact on ground-water quality than atrazine, primarily because they are less intensively used.

  8. STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. vailable techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultat...

  9. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    PubMed

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models. PMID:26826362

  10. The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2008-01-01

    The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

  11. The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert; Drought Working Group, S.

    2008-12-01

    The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

  12. Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are

  13. Modeling HIV Vaccines in Brazil: Assessing the Impact of a Future HIV Vaccine on Reducing New Infections, Mortality and Number of People Receiving ARV

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Maria Goretti P.; Forsythe, Steven; Menezes, Alexandre; Vuthoori, Shilpa; Possas, Cristina; Veloso, Valdiléa; de Fátima Lucena, Francisca; Stover, John

    2010-01-01

    Background The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios. Methods and Findings The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections. Conclusions Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial. PMID:20668523

  14. Modelling land use change and environmental impact.

    PubMed

    Veldkamp, A; Verburg, P