Sample records for impending regime shift

  1. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

    PubMed Central

    Biggs, Reinette; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2009-01-01

    Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts. PMID:19124774

  2. The detection of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information(presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  3. The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  4. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  5. Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

    2013-05-07

    Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to "tipping points," rapid transitions between alternative states ("regime shifts") in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ~45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.

  6. Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Ellison, Aaron M.

    2013-01-01

    Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes. PMID:23613583

  7. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  8. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    PubMed

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  9. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  10. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

    2013-07-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  12. Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

  13. Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Pace, Michael L

    2011-10-01

    Regime shifts are massive, often irreversible, rearrangements of nonlinear ecological processes that occur when systems pass critical transition points. Ecological regime shifts sometimes have severe consequences for human well-being, including eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and species extinctions. Theoretical and laboratory evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in ecological time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert incipient regime shifts. Conditional heteroscedasticity is persistent variance characteristic of time series with clustered volatility. Here, we analyze conditional heteroscedasticity as a potential leading indicator of regime shifts in ecological time series. We evaluate conditional heteroscedasticity by using ecological models with and without four types of critical transition. On approaching transition points, all time series contain significant conditional heteroscedasticity. This signal is detected hundreds of time steps in advance of the regime shift. Time series without regime shifts do not have significant conditional heteroscedasticity. Because probability values are easily associated with tests for conditional heteroscedasticity, detection of false positives in time series without regime shifts is minimized. This property reduces the need for a reference system to compare with the perturbed system.

  14. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  15. Regime shifts driven by dynamic correlations in gene expression noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi

    2017-08-01

    Gene expression is a noisy process that leads to regime shifts between alternative steady states among individual living cells, inducing phenotypic variability. The effects of white noise on the regime shift in bistable systems have been well characterized, however little is known about such effects of colored noise (noise with nonzero correlation time). Here, we show that noise correlation time, by considering a genetic circuit of autoactivation, can have a significant effect on the regime shift between distinct phenotypic states in gene expression. We demonstrate this theoretically, using stochastic potential, stationary probability density function, and first-passage time based on the Fokker-Planck description, where the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used to model colored noise. We find that an increase in noise correlation time in the degradation rate can induce a regime shift from a low to a high protein concentration state and enhance the bistable regime, while an increase in noise correlation time in the basal rate retains the bimodal distribution. We then show how cross-correlated colored noises in basal and degradation rates can induce regime shifts from a low to a high protein concentration state, but reduce the bistable regime. We also validate these results through direct numerical simulations of the stochastic differential equation. In gene expression understanding the causes of regime shift to a harmful phenotype could improve early therapeutic intervention in complex human diseases.

  16. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

  17. Signals of impending change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, James B.

    2017-01-01

    Society has an increasing awareness that there are finite limits to what we can expect the planet to absorb and still provide goods and services at current rates1. Both historical reconstructions and contemporary events continue to remind us that ecological regime changes are often abrupt rather than gradual. This reality motivates researchers who seek to discover leading indicators for impending ecosystem change. Berdugo et al.2 report an important advance in our ability to anticipate the conversion of arid lands from self-organized, self-maintaining and productive ecosystems, to a state characterized by disorganization and low functionality. Such conversions have important implications for our understanding of ‘desertification’ — which is a shift from arid to desert-like conditions.Theoretical studies have suggested that patterns in the patchiness of vegetation might indicate how close a system is to making an abrupt change to desert-like conditions3,4,5. Empirical studies, however, have tended to show instead that simply the total cover of vegetation, rather than its arrangement, often foretells the state of the system4,5,6,7,8,9. Berdugo et al.2 combine these competing ideas into one integrated perspective. They show how major environmental drivers, such as aridity, influence both vegetation cover and patchiness, as well as where self-organizing, stabilizing forces in the vegetation are likely to be found.

  18. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-06-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

  19. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  20. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  1. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

    2015-10-01

    Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

  4. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  5. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  6. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of th...

  7. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

    2015-01-01

    Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

  8. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

    2016-01-01

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

  9. Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2010-01-01

    The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

  10. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  11. Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

  12. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

    PubMed Central

    Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-01-01

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

  13. Regime shifts in desert grasslands: patterns, mechanisms, and management

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Transitions from semiarid grassland to shrubland states are among the most widely recognized examples of regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems. Nonetheless, the processes causing grassland-shrubland transitions, and their consequences, are incompletely understood. We challenge several misconceptio...

  14. Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

  15. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

  16. Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

    PubMed Central

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

  17. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  18. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos

    PubMed Central

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E.; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980–2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  19. Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christopher T; Uehlinger, Urs

    2008-03-01

    Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates

  20. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  1. The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Regime shifts are difficult-to-reverse transitions that occur when an ecosystem reorganizes around a new set of self-reinforcing feedbacks. Regime shifts are predicted to occur when the intensity of some exogenous driver variable, such as temperature, annual harvest rate, or nutrient addition rate, ...

  2. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

    PubMed Central

    Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  3. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

  4. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  5. Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem

  6. Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-05-01

    Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  9. An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James P. L.

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts are discontinuous transitions between stable attractors hosting a system. They can occur as a result of a loss of stability in an attractor as a bifurcation is approached. In this work, we consider one-dimensional dynamical systems where attractors are stable equilibrium points. Relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a system may escape an undesirable attractor into a desirable one. We test the algorithm on synthetic data from a one-dimensional dynamical system with a multitude of stable equilibrium points and also on a model of the population dynamics of spruce budworms in a forest. The algorithm and other ideas discussed here contribute to an important part of the literature on exercising greater control over the sometimes unpredictable nature of nonlinear systems.

  10. Distinct zooplankton regime shift patterns across ecoregions of the U.S. Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morse, R. E.; Friedland, K. D.; Tommasi, D.; Stock, C.; Nye, J.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated regime shifts in seasonal zooplankton communities of the Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES) and its subcomponent ecoregions over a multi-decadal period (1977-2013). Our cross ecoregion analysis shows that regime shifts in different ecoregions often exhibited very distinct characteristics, emphasizing more granular fluctuations in NES plankton communities relative to previous work. Shifts early in the time series generally reflected an increase in abundance levels. The response of zooplankton abundance within fall communities was more similar among ecoregions than for spring communities. The Gulf of Maine exhibited highly distinct patterns from other ecoregions, with regime shifts identified in the early 1980s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s for spring communities. Regime shifts were identified in the early to mid-1990s for the NES, Georges Bank, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight ecoregions, while the fall communities experienced shifts in the early 1990s and late 1980s for the NES and Georges Bank, but in the late 1990s in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. A constrained correspondence analysis of zooplankton community against local and basin-scale climatological indices suggests that water temperature, stratification, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) were the predominant factors in driving the zooplankton community composition.

  11. Climate change and potential reversal of regime shifts in desrt ecosystems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Globally, regime shifts from grasslands to shrublands (i.e., desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems are thought to be irreversible, similar to state changes in other ecosystems. The consequences of desertification, including loss of soil and nutrients to wind and water erosion, reductions ...

  12. Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

    2008-05-01

    Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

  13. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  14. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  15. Dynamical patterns and regime shifts in the nonlinear model of soil microorganisms growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaitseva, Maria; Vladimirov, Artem; Winter, Anna-Marie; Vasilyeva, Nadezda

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical model of soil microorganisms growth and turnover is formulated as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. We consider spatial distributions of concentrations of several substrates and microorganisms. Biochemical reactions are modelled by chemical kinetic equations. Transport is modelled by simple linear diffusion for all chemical substances, while for microorganisms we use different transport functions, e.g. some of them can actively move along gradient of substrate concentration, while others cannot move. We solve our model in two dimensions, starting from uniform state with small initial perturbations for various parameters and find parameter range, where small initial perturbations grow and evolve. We search for bifurcation points and critical regime shifts in our model and analyze time-space profile and phase portraits of these solutions approaching critical regime shifts in the system, exploring possibility to detect such shifts in advance. This work is supported by NordForsk, project #81513.

  16. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2012-01-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  17. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

  18. Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

    2016-04-01

    Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

  19. Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

    PubMed

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

    2018-06-01

    A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

  20. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  1. Regime shifts in the Humboldt Current ecosystem [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Niquen, Miguel

    2004-02-01

    Of the four major eastern boundary currents, the Humboldt Current (HC) stands out because it is extremely productive, dominated by anchovy dynamics and subject to frequent direct environmental perturbations of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term dynamics of the HC ecosystem are controlled by shifts between alternating anchovy and sardine regimes that restructure the entire ecosystem from phytoplankton to the top predators. These regime shifts are caused by lasting periods of warm or cold temperature anomalies related to the approach or retreat of warm subtropical oceanic waters to the coast of Peru and Chile. Phases with mainly negative temperature anomalies parallel anchovy regimes (1950-1970; 1985 to the present) and the rather warm period from 1970 to 1985 was characterized by sardine dominance. The transition periods (turning points) from one regime to the other were 1968-1970 and 1984-1986. Like an El Nino, the warm periods drastically change trophic relationships in the entire HC ecosystem, exposing the Peruvian anchovy to a multitude of adverse conditions. Positive temperature anomalies off Peru drive the anchovy population close to the coast as the coastal upwelling cells usually offer the coolest environment, thereby substantially decreasing the extent of the areas of anchovy distribution and spawning. This enhances the effects of negative density-dependent processes such as egg and larval cannibalism and dramatically increases its catchability. Increased spatial overlap between anchovies and the warmer water preferring sardines intensifies anchovy egg mortality further as sardines feed heavily on anchovy eggs. Food sources for juvenile and adult anchovies which prey on a mixed diet of phyto- and zooplankton are drastically reduced because of decreased plankton production due to restricted upwelling in warm years, as demonstrated by lower zooplankton and phytoplankton volumes and the diminution of the fraction of large copepods, their

  2. Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

  3. Evidence for a regime shift in nitrogen export from a forested watershed

    Treesearch

    J. R. Webster; Jennifer Knoepp; Wayne Swank; Chelcy Miniat

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we document a functional regime shift in stream inorganic nitrogen (N) processing indicated by a major change in N export from a forested watershed. Evidence from 36 years of data following experimental clearcut logging at Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, NC, suggests that forest disturbance in this area can cause elevation of dissolved inorganic...

  4. Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

    PubMed

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

    2017-08-01

    Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-08

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  7. Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

    2016-12-01

    It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

  8. Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

    2015-11-01

    Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California

  9. Clinical signs of impending death in cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Hui, David; dos Santos, Renata; Chisholm, Gary; Bansal, Swati; Silva, Thiago Buosi; Kilgore, Kelly; Crovador, Camila Souza; Yu, Xiaoying; Swartz, Michael D; Perez-Cruz, Pedro Emilio; Leite, Raphael de Almeida; Nascimento, Maria Salete de Angelis; Reddy, Suresh; Seriaco, Fabiola; Yennu, Sriram; Paiva, Carlos Eduardo; Dev, Rony; Hall, Stacy; Fajardo, Julieta; Bruera, Eduardo

    2014-06-01

    The physical signs of impending death have not been well characterized in cancer patients. A better understanding of these signs may improve the ability of clinicians to diagnose impending death. We examined the frequency and onset of 10 bedside physical signs and their diagnostic performance for impending death. We systematically documented 10 physical signs every 12 hours from admission to death or discharge in 357 consecutive patients with advanced cancer admitted to two acute palliative care units. We examined the frequency and median onset of each sign from death backward and calculated their likelihood ratios (LRs) associated with death within 3 days. In total, 203 of 357 patients (52 of 151 in the U.S., 151 of 206 in Brazil) died. Decreased level of consciousness, Palliative Performance Scale ≤20%, and dysphagia of liquids appeared at high frequency and >3 days before death and had low specificity (<90%) and positive LR (<5) for impending death. In contrast, apnea periods, Cheyne-Stokes breathing, death rattle, peripheral cyanosis, pulselessness of radial artery, respiration with mandibular movement, and decreased urine output occurred mostly in the last 3 days of life and at lower frequency. Five of these signs had high specificity (>95%) and positive LRs for death within 3 days, including pulselessness of radial artery (positive LR: 15.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.7-17.4), respiration with mandibular movement (positive LR: 10; 95% CI: 9.1-10.9), decreased urine output (positive LR: 15.2; 95% CI: 13.4-17.1), Cheyne-Stokes breathing (positive LR: 12.4; 95% CI: 10.8-13.9), and death rattle (positive LR: 9; 95% CI: 8.1-9.8). We identified highly specific physical signs associated with death within 3 days among cancer patients. ©AlphaMed Press.

  10. Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

    2012-03-01

    Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

  11. Isometric arm counter-pressure maneuvers to abort impending vasovagal syncope.

    PubMed

    Brignole, Michele; Croci, Francesco; Menozzi, Carlo; Solano, Alberto; Donateo, Paolo; Oddone, Daniele; Puggioni, Enrico; Lolli, Gino

    2002-12-04

    We hypothesized that isometric arm exercises were able to increase blood pressure (BP) during the phase of impending vasovagal syncope and allow the patient to avoid losing consciousness. Hypotension is always present during the prodromal phase of vasovagal syncope. We evaluated the effect of handgrip (HG) and arm-tensing in 19 patients affected by tilt-induced vasovagal syncope. The study consisted of an acute single-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, cross-over tilt-table efficacy study and a clinical follow-up feasibility study. In the acute tilt study, HG was administered for 2 min, starting at the time of onset of symptoms of impending syncope. In the active arm, HG caused an increase in systolic blood pressure (SBP) from 92 +/- 10 mm Hg to 105 +/- 38 mm Hg, whereas in the placebo arm SBP decreased from 91 +/- 11 mm Hg to 73 +/- 21 mm Hg (p = 0.008). Heart rate behavior was similar in the two arms. In the active arm, 63% of patients became asymptomatic, versus 11% in the control arm (p = 0.02); conversely, only 5% of patients developed syncope, versus 47% in the control arm (p = 0.01). The patients were trained to self-administer arm-tensing treatment as soon as symptoms of impending syncope occurred. During 9 +/- 3 months of follow-up, the treatment was actually performed in 95/97 episodes of impending syncope (98%) and was successful in 94/95 (99%). No patients suffered injury or other adverse morbidity related to the relapses. Isometric arm contraction is able to abort impending vasovagal syncope by increasing systemic BP. Arm counter-pressure maneuvers can be proposed as a new, feasible, safe, and well accepted first-line treatment for vasovagal syncope.

  12. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

  13. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America

    PubMed Central

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-01-01

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910–1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  14. A diagnostic model for impending death in cancer patients: Preliminary report.

    PubMed

    Hui, David; Hess, Kenneth; dos Santos, Renata; Chisholm, Gary; Bruera, Eduardo

    2015-11-01

    Several highly specific bedside physical signs associated with impending death within 3 days for patients with advanced cancer were recently identified. A diagnostic model for impending death based on these physical signs was developed and assessed. Sixty-two physical signs were systematically documented every 12 hours from admission to death or discharge for 357 patients with advanced cancer who were admitted to acute palliative care units (APCUs) at 2 tertiary care cancer centers. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to develop a prediction model for impending death within 3 days with admission data. The model was validated with 5 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation, and the model was also applied to APCU days 2 to 6. For the 322 of 357 patients (90%) with complete data for all signs, the 3-day mortality rate was 24% on admission. The final model was based on 2 variables (Palliative Performance Scale [PPS] and drooping of nasolabial folds) and had 4 terminal leaves: PPS score ≤ 20% and drooping of nasolabial folds present, PPS score ≤ 20% and drooping of nasolabial folds absent, PPS score of 30% to 60%, and PPS score ≥ 70%. The 3-day mortality rates were 94%, 42%, 16%, and 3%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy was 81% for the original tree, 80% for cross-validation, and 79% to 84% for subsequent APCU days. Based on 2 objective bedside physical signs, a diagnostic model was developed for impending death within 3 days. This model was applicable to both APCU admission and subsequent days. Upon further external validation, this model may help clinicians to formulate the diagnosis of impending death. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  15. A Diagnostic Model for Impending Death in Cancer Patients: Preliminary Report

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David; Hess, Kenneth; dos Santos, Renata; Chisholm, Gary; Bruera, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    Background We recently identified several highly specific bedside physical signs associated with impending death within 3 days among patients with advanced cancer. In this study, we developed and assessed a diagnostic model for impending death based on these physical signs. Methods We systematically documented 62 physical signs every 12 hours from admission to death or discharge in 357 patients with advanced cancer admitted to acute palliative care units (APCUs) at two tertiary care cancer centers. We used recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) to develop a prediction model for impending death in 3 days using admission data. We validated the model with 5 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation, and also applied the model to APCU days 2/3/4/5/6. Results Among 322/357 (90%) patients with complete data for all signs, the 3-day mortality was 24% on admission. The final model was based on 2 variables (palliative performance scale [PPS] and drooping of nasolabial fold) and had 4 terminal leaves: PPS≤20% and drooping of nasolabial fold present, PPS≤20% and drooping of nasolabial fold absent, PPS 30–60% and PPS ≥ 70%, with 3-day mortality of 94%, 42%, 16% and 3%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy was 81% for the original tree, 80% for cross-validation, and 79%–84% for subsequent APCU days. Conclusion(s) We developed a diagnostic model for impending death within 3 days based on 2 objective bedside physical signs. This model was applicable to both APCU admission and subsequent days. Upon further external validation, this model may help clinicians to formulate the diagnosis of impending death. PMID:26218612

  16. The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

    PubMed

    Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

    2010-05-19

    Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin

  17. Large Dispersive Shift of Cavity Resonance Induced by a Superconducting Flux Qubit in the Straddling Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inomata, Kunihiro; Yamamoto, Tsuyoshi; Billangeon, Pierre-M.; Lin, Zhirong; Nakamura, Yasunobu; Tsai, Jaw-Shen; Koshino, Kazuki

    2013-03-01

    We demonstrate enhancement of the dispersive frequency shift in a coplanar waveguide resonator induced by a capacitively coupled superconducting flux qubit in the straddling regime. The magnitude of the observed shift, 80 MHz for the qubit-resonator detuning of 5 GHz, is quantitatively explained by the generalized Rabi model which takes into account the contribution of the qubit higher energy levels. By applying the enhanced dispersive shift to the qubit readout, we achieved 90 % contrast of the Rabi oscillations which is mainly limited by the energy relaxation of the qubit. We also discuss the qubit readout using a Josephson parametric amplifier. This work was supported by the MEXT Kakenhi ``Quantum Cybernetics'', the JSPS through its FIRST Program, and the NICT Commissioned Research.

  18. Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

  19. Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

    PubMed

    Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

    2014-01-01

    The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

  20. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  1. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

  2. Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

    2017-12-01

    Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

  3. Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

    PubMed

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

    2015-08-24

    In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

  4. Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

    2011-02-01

    Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

  5. Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

  6. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    PubMed

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  7. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  8. Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

    2015-06-01

    Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.

  9. Students' Perceptions regarding Their Impending Transition out of College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yazedjian, Ani; Kielaszek, Becki J.; Toews, Michelle L.

    2010-01-01

    Although researchers have argued students experience feelings of stress, fear, and uncertainty as they transition from college to work life, there is limited empirical research supporting this argument. Our study filled this gap by exploring 183 fourth-year students' perceptions regarding their impending transition out of the college environment.…

  10. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-01-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds (“WAP 12”, “WAP 20”, and “WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of 210Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring. PMID:25750718

  11. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-02-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

  12. Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

    2007-02-01

    Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime-shifts

  13. Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

  14. Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

    PubMed

    DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

    2009-03-01

    The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

  15. Efficacy and feasibility of isometric arm counter-pressure manoeuvres to abort impending vasovagal syncope during real life.

    PubMed

    Croci, Francesco; Brignole, Michele; Menozzi, Carlo; Solano, Alberto; Donateo, Paolo; Oddone, Daniele; Puggioni, Enrico; Lolli, Gino

    2004-07-01

    Isometric arm exercises are able to increase blood pressure during the phase of impending vasovagal syncope. We evaluated their efficacy and feasibility during daily life in a group of 29 consecutive patients affected by vasovagal syncopes. The patients were trained to use arm tensing and/or handgrip in case of occurrence of symptoms of impending syncope. During 14+/-6 months of follow-up, 260 episodes of impending syncope were reported by 19 patients; the manoeuvres were self-administered by these patients in 98% of cases and were able to abort syncope in 99.6% of cases. Overall, 5 episodes of syncope occurred in 5 patients (17%), in 4 cases without and in 1 with activation of the manoeuvres. Syncope recurred in 4 (40%) of 10 patients aged >65 years versus only 1 (5%) of 19 patients aged < or =65 years, p=0.03. The non-responders had more episodes of impending syncope than responders (37+/-32 vs 3+/-4, p=0.001). Among 19 clinical variables, age in years was the only significant predictor of syncopal recurrence. No patients had injury or other adverse morbidity related to the relapses. Isometric arm counter-pressure manoeuvres are able to abort impending vasovagal syncope in most patients aged < or =65 years. Arm counter-pressure manoeuvres are feasible, safe and well accepted by the patients in the daily life.

  16. Anticipatory control of impending postural perturbation in elite springboard divers.

    PubMed

    Popa, T; Bonifazi, M; della Volpe, R; Rossi, A; Mazzocchio, R

    2008-12-01

    Among athletes, elite springboard divers (ED) should develop an optimal anticipatory control of postural stability, as a result of specific training. Postural strategies of ED and healthy subjects (HS) while expecting an impending perturbation were compared. The mean center of pressure (COP) position was analyzed during control quiet stance (cQS) and during anticipatory quiet stance (aQS(1-4)), i.e., in expectation of four backward translations of the support surface. During cQS, COP position in ED was not significantly different as compared to HS. During aQS(1-4,) a significant increase in the mean COP position was observed in both groups with ED adopting a more forward inclined vertical alignment than HS. In ED specific training may have resulted in a reference frame offset in a more anterior direction while expecting an impending perturbation. We suggest that leaning more forward may represent a more reliable way of coping with predictable perturbations of postural stability.

  17. Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

    PubMed

    Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

    2017-07-07

    It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Transient sensations of impending loss of consciousness: the "blip" syndrome.

    PubMed Central

    Lance, J W

    1996-01-01

    Momentary sensations of impending loss of consciousness may occur, particularly when a person is relaxed, without any obvious cardiac, cerebral vascular, or epileptic basis. These episodes may be a quasiepileptic phenomenon such as déjà vu and night starts and seem to have a benign prognosis. PMID:8774412

  19. Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

  20. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  1. Changes in soil thermal regime lead to substantial shifts in carbon and energy fluxes in drained Arctic tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goeckede, M.; Kwon, M. J.; Kittler, F.; Heimann, M.; Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change impacts in the Arctic will not only depend on future temperature trajectories in this region. In particular, potential shifts in hydrologic regimes, e.g. linked to altered precipitation patterns or changes in topography following permafrost degradation, can dramatically modify ecosystem feedbacks to warming. Here, we analyze how severe drainage affects both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes within a formerly wet Arctic tundra, with a special focus on the interactions between hydrology and soil temperatures, and related effects on the fluxes of carbon and energy. Our findings are based on year-round observations from a decade-long drainage experiment conducted near Chersky, Northeast Siberia. Through our multi-disciplinary observations we can document that the drainage triggered a suite of secondary changes in ecosystem properties, including e.g. adaptation processes in the vegetation community structure, or shifts in snow cover regime. Most profoundly, a combination of low heat capacity and reduced heat conductivity in dry organic soils lead to warmer soil temperatures near the surface, while deeper soil layers remained colder. These changes in soil thermal regime reduced the contribution of deeper soil layers with older carbon pools to overall ecosystem respiration, as documented through radiocarbon signals. Regarding methane, the observed steeper temperature gradient along the vertical soil profile slowed down methane production in deep layers, while promoting CH4 oxidation near the surface. Taken together, both processes contributed to a reduction in CH4 emissions up to a factor of 20 following drainage. Concerning the energy budget, we observed an intensification of energy transfer to the lower atmosphere, particularly in form of sensible heat, but the reduced energy transfer into deeper soil layers also led to systematically shallower thaw depths. Summarizing, drainage may contribute to slow down decomposition of old carbon from deep

  2. Hydrological regime shift in a constructed catchment: Effect of vegetation encroachment on surface runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinz, C.; Caviedes-Voullieme, D.; Andezhath Mohanan, A.; Brueck, Y.; Zaplata, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Hühnerwasser catchment (Chicken Creek) was constructed to provide discharge for a small stream in the post-mining landscape of Lusatia, Germany. It has an area of 6 ha and quaternary sands with a thickness of 2-4 m were dumped on to a clay liner to prevent deep drainage. After completion of the construction the catchment was left to develop on its own without intervention and has been monitored since 2005. The upper part of the catchment discharges water and sediment into the lower part forming an alluvial fan. Below the alluvial fan is a pond receiving all surface and subsurface water from the upper catchment. After the formation of the drainage network vegetation started growing and surface runoff decreased until the water balance was dominated by evapotranspiration. This regime shift and the rate at which it happened depends on the vegetation encroachment into the rills and the interrill areas. Based on the hypothesis that vegetation will increase surface roughness and infiltration behavior, aerial photos were used to map rills and vegetation within and outside the rills for the last 10 years to obtain a time series of change. Observational evidence clearly shows that vegetation encroaches from the bottom, from the interrill areas as well as from the top. The rills themselves did not change their topology, however, the width of the erosion rills and gully increased at the bottom. For a subcatchment area a high resolution a physical based numerical model of overland flow was developed to explicitly assess the importance of increasing roughness and infiltration capacity for surface runoff. For the purpose of analyzing the effect of rainfall variability a rainfall generator was developed to carry out large sets of simulations. The simulations provide a means to assess how the roughness/infiltration feedback affects the rate of regime shift for a set of parameters that are consistent with the observed hydrological behavior of the drainage network.

  3. Impending thyroid storm in a pregnant woman with undiagnosed hyperthyroidism

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Yushan; Li, Hao; Liu, Jin; Lin, Xuemei; Liu, Hui

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Thyroid storm is a rare complication during caesarean section of patients with hyperthyroidism. It occurs abruptly, with a high mortality rate if not recognized immediately and aggressively treated. Herein, we reported a case of impending thyroid storm during a caesarean section. Patient concerns: A healthy 23-year-old woman with undiagnosed hyperthyroidism underwent an emergency caesarean section under general anesthesia. After tracheal extubation, the patient exhibited abnormal tachycardia, agitation, sweating, and hyperpyrexia. Diagnoses: The clinical manifestation and the following thyroid function test indicate a high index of suspicion for impending thyroid storm. Interventions: Hydrocortisone and esmolol were intravenously administered immediately. Propylthiouracil and propranolol were orally administered after the patient regained complete consciousness. Outcomes: Due to our immediate recognition and aggressive treatment, more serious manifestations of thyroid storm were avoided. Lessons: Good antenatal care is very important for pregnant women, and they should be generally screened for thyroid disorders, especially if the resting heart rate is >100 beats/min and weight increases are inconsistent with gestational age. When hyperthyroidism is suspected, drugs that excite the sympathetic nerves or promote the release of histamine should not be used during caesarean section. PMID:29504986

  4. Skin Bioprinting: Impending Reality or Fantasy?

    PubMed

    Ng, Wei Long; Wang, Shuai; Yeong, Wai Yee; Naing, May Win

    2016-09-01

    Bioprinting provides a fully automated and advanced platform that facilitates the simultaneous and highly specific deposition of multiple types of skin cells and biomaterials, a process that is lacking in conventional skin tissue-engineering approaches. Here, we provide a realistic, current overview of skin bioprinting, distinguishing facts from myths. We present an in-depth analysis of both current skin bioprinting works and the cellular and matrix components of native human skin. We also highlight current limitations and achievements, followed by design considerations and a future outlook for skin bioprinting. The potential of bioprinting with converging opportunities in biology, material, and computational design will eventually facilitate the fabrication of improved tissue-engineered (TE) skin constructs, making bioprinting skin an impending reality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

    PubMed Central

    Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

  6. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

    PubMed

    Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

    2015-01-27

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

  7. Resilience of the Nexus of Competitive Water Consumption between Human Society and Environment Development: Regime Shifts and Early Warning Signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z.; Liu, P.; Feng, M.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Based on the modeling of the water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) nexus by Feng et al. (2016), a refined theoretical model of competitive water consumption between human society and environment has been presented in this study, examining the role of technology advancement and social environmental awareness growth-induced pollution mitigation to the environment as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of the coexistence of both higher social water consumption and improved environment condition. By coupling environmental and social dynamics, both of which are represented by water consumption quantity, this study shows the possibility of sustainable situation of the social-environmental system when the benefit of technology offsets the side effect (pollution) of social development to the environment. Additionally, regime shifts could be triggered by gradually increased pollution rate, climate change-induced natural resources reduction and breakdown of the social environmental awareness. Therefore, in order to foresee the pending abrupt regime shifts of the system, early warning signals, including increasing variance and autocorrelation, have been examined when the system is undergoing stochastic disturbance. ADDIN EN.REFLIST Feng, M. et al., 2016. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China. J. Hydrol., 543: 344-359.

  8. Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

    PubMed

    Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2017-05-01

    Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting

  9. The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

  10. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  11. Regime Shift in Sandy Beach Microbial Communities following Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Remediation Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A.

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  12. Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conners, M. E.; Hollowed, A. B.; Brown, E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey.

  13. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

  14. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    PubMed Central

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  15. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  16. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia.

    PubMed

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-04

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  17. Regime Shift and Microbial Dynamics in a Sequencing Batch Reactor for Nitrification and Anammox Treatment of Urine ▿†

    PubMed Central

    Bürgmann, Helmut; Jenni, Sarina; Vazquez, Francisco; Udert, Kai M.

    2011-01-01

    The microbial population and physicochemical process parameters of a sequencing batch reactor for nitrogen removal from urine were monitored over a 1.5-year period. Microbial community fingerprinting (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and quantitative PCR on nitrogen cycle functional groups were used to characterize the microbial population. The reactor combined nitrification (ammonium oxidation)/anammox with organoheterotrophic denitrification. The nitrogen elimination rate initially increased by 400%, followed by an extended period of performance degradation. This phase was characterized by accumulation of nitrite and nitrous oxide, reduced anammox activity, and a different but stable microbial community. Outwashing of anammox bacteria or their inhibition by oxygen or nitrite was insufficient to explain reactor behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, e.g., regime-shift analysis of chemical and physical parameters and cluster and ordination analysis of the microbial community, indicated that the system had experienced a rapid transition to a new stable state that led to the observed inferior process rates. The events in the reactor can thus be interpreted to be an ecological regime shift. Constrained ordination indicated that the pH set point controlling cycle duration, temperature, airflow rate, and the release of nitric and nitrous oxides controlled the primarily heterotrophic microbial community. We show that by combining chemical and physical measurements, microbial community analysis and ecological theory allowed extraction of useful information about the causes and dynamics of the observed process instability. PMID:21724875

  18. Predicting Impending Death: Inconsistency in Speed is a Selective and Early Marker

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Stuart W.S.; Hultsch, David F.; Dixon, Roger A.

    2008-01-01

    Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least one occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the three cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. PMID:18808249

  19. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

    2018-01-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

  20. Cognition and balance control: does processing of explicit contextual cues of impending perturbations modulate automatic postural responses?

    PubMed

    Coelho, Daniel Boari; Teixeira, Luis Augusto

    2017-08-01

    Processing of predictive contextual cues of an impending perturbation is thought to induce adaptive postural responses. Cueing in previous research has been provided through repeated perturbations with a constant foreperiod. This experimental strategy confounds explicit predictive cueing with adaptation and non-specific properties of temporal cueing. Two experiments were performed to assess those factors separately. To perturb upright balance, the base of support was suddenly displaced backwards in three amplitudes: 5, 10 and 15 cm. In Experiment 1, we tested the effect of cueing the amplitude of the impending postural perturbation by means of visual signals, and the effect of adaptation to repeated exposures by comparing block versus random sequences of perturbation. In Experiment 2, we evaluated separately the effects of cueing the characteristics of an impending balance perturbation and cueing the timing of perturbation onset. Results from Experiment 1 showed that the block sequence of perturbations led to increased stability of automatic postural responses, and modulation of magnitude and onset latency of muscular responses. Results from Experiment 2 showed that only the condition cueing timing of platform translation onset led to increased balance stability and modulation of onset latency of muscular responses. Conversely, cueing platform displacement amplitude failed to induce any effects on automatic postural responses in both experiments. Our findings support the interpretation of improved postural responses via optimized sensorimotor processes, at the same time that cast doubt on the notion that cognitive processing of explicit contextual cues advancing the magnitude of an impending perturbation can preset adaptive postural responses.

  1. Ocular Pain and Impending Blindness During Facial Cosmetic Injections: Is Your Office Prepared?

    PubMed

    Prado, Giselle; Rodríguez-Feliz, Jose

    2017-02-01

    Soft tissue filler injections are the second most common non-surgical procedure performed by the plastic surgeon. Embolization of intravascular material after facial injection is a rare but terrifying outcome due to the high likelihood of long-term sequela such as blindness and cerebrovascular accident. The literature is replete with examples of permanent blindness caused by injection with autologous fat, soft tissue fillers such as hyaluronic acid, PLLA, calcium hydroxyl-apatite, and even corticosteroid suspensions. However, missing from the discussion is an effective treatment algorithm that can be quickly and safely followed by injecting physicians in the case of an intravascular injection with impending blindness. In this report, we present the case of a 64-year-old woman who suffered from blindness and hemiparesis after facial cosmetic injections performed by a family physician. We use this case to create awareness that this complication has become more common as the number of injectors and patients seeking these treatments have increased exponentially over the past few years. We share in this study our experience with the incorporation of a "blindness safety kit" in each of our offices to promptly initiate treatment in someone with embolization and impending blindness. The kit contains a step-by-step protocol to follow in the event of arterial embolization of filler material associated with ocular pain and impending loss of vision. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

  2. Experimental Study of Thermal Field Evolution in the Short-Impending Stage Before Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yaqiong; Ma, Jin; Liu, Peixun; Chen, Shunyun

    2017-08-01

    Phenomena at critical points are vital for identifying the short-impending stage prior to earthquakes. The peak stress is a critical point when stress is converted from predominantly accumulation to predominantly release. We call the duration between the peak stress and instability "the meta-instability stage", which refers to the short-impending stage of earthquakes. The meta-instability stage consists of a steady releasing quasi-static stage and an accelerated releasing quasi-dynamic stage. The turning point of the above two stages is the remaining critical point. To identify the two critical points in the field, it is necessary to study the characteristic phenomena of various physical fields in the meta-instability stage in the laboratory, and the strain and displacement variations were studied. Considering that stress and relative displacement can be detected by thermal variations and peculiarities in the full-field observations, we employed a cooled thermal infrared imaging system to record thermal variations in the meta-instability stage of stick slip events generated along a simulated, precut planer strike slip fault in a granodiorite block on a horizontally bilateral servo-controlled press machine. The experimental results demonstrate the following: (1) a large area of decreasing temperatures in wall rocks and increasing temperatures in sporadic sections of the fault indicate entrance into the meta-instability stage. (2) The rapid expansion of regions of increasing temperatures on the fault and the enhancement of temperature increase amplitude correspond to the turning point from the quasi-static stage to the quasi-dynamic stage. Our results reveal thermal indicators for the critical points prior to earthquakes that provide clues for identifying the short-impending stage of earthquakes.

  3. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    PubMed Central

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  4. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

    PubMed

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-04-14

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime.

  5. Altered peat hydrophysical properties following drainage and wildfire increases peatland vulnerability to ecosystem regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Kettridge, Nick; Sherwood, James; Granath, Gustaf

    2015-04-01

    Northern peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reservoir, composed largely of legacy carbon which is no longer part of the active carbon cycle. However, it is unclear whether this legacy carbon is vulnerable as a result of enhanced peat smouldering and combustion under the moderate drying conditions predicted for northern peatlands as a result of climate change and/or disturbance from forestry, mining, and associated transport development. A significant loss in legacy carbon as a result of wildfire has already been observed in smaller tropical peatlands where deep peat soils have been destabilized due to severe drainage and a shift in vegetation. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland several decades post drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition, previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands, when accompanied by wildfire. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire resulted in a shift of the peat surface down the peat profile, exposing denser peat at the surface. In undisturbed northern peatlands where depth of burn is typically low, low-density near-surface peats help regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture availability post-fire, both of which are favourable to Sphagnum recolonization. As a result of drainage and fire at the study site, the self-regulating properties of the low-density Sphagnum surface were lost. We demonstrate that changes in peat hydrophysical properties increased hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery leading to the conversion to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy carbon stored in the peat.

  6. Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

    PubMed Central

    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Nyström, Magnus; Norström, Albert V.; Williams, Ivor D.; Wedding, Lisa M.; Kittinger, John N.; Williams, Gareth J.

    2015-01-01

    Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.

  7. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

  8. Evidence for Pacific Climate Regime Shifts as Preserved in a Southeast Alaska Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, S. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Thompson, L. G.

    2012-12-01

    Climate modes emanating from the Pacific sector have far-reaching effects across the globe. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects anomalies in the sea surface temperature and pressure fields over the tropical Pacific, but climate implications from these anomalies extend to monsoon regions of Asia to North America and even Europe. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific sector and influences the long-term behavior of the ENSO cycle as well as the storm track over North America expressed as the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). The impacts of both climate change and drastically reduced Arctic sea ice cover on these teleconnection patterns are poorly understood, and with little knowledge about their past behavior, predicting the changes in these climate modes is extremely difficult. An ice core from the col between Mt. Bona and Mt. Churchill in southeast Alaska provides an opportunity to examine the PDO prior to both the start of instrumental records and the more recent effects of anthropogenic climate change. The Bona-Churchill records of isotopic, dust, and chemical composition are compared to nearby meteorological station and 20th century reanalysis data to evaluate their strength as climate recorders. Climate indices such as the PDO and PNA, along with indices created to describe the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, are incorporated into the analysis to determine if proxy relationships are altered under different climate regimes. Satellite records of sea ice extent within the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, when compared to the Bona-Churchill data, show a distinct change in behavior in the mid-1990s possibly in response to the temporary negative shift in the PDO. This behavioral shift is explored and placed into a broader climate context to determine whether similar events have occurred in the past or if this shift is unique to a rapidly warming Arctic.

  9. Predicting impending death: inconsistency in speed is a selective and early marker.

    PubMed

    Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

    2008-09-01

    Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least 1 occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the 3 cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  10. The Demise of the Circumboreal Mammoth Steppe as an Ecological Regime Shift: Drivers and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, D. H.; Groves, P.; Grosse, G.; Gaglioti, B.; Kunz, M.

    2011-12-01

    abundance grass and sedges, firm substrates, and unusual mixtures of steppe and tundra vegetation. What caused the demise of the Mammoth Steppe is unclear, however understanding what maintained it over space and time would greatly aid this discussion. The habitat shift began ca. 12,500 14C yr BP and continued for approximately 2000 years. It coincided with a shift from well-drained, mineral soils to poorly drained, organic-rich ones. This regime shift may have been more significant than changes during previous interglacial climatic shifts as most megafaunal species adapted to life in the Mammoth Steppe experienced radical range reductions and, in some cases, global extinction during this period.

  11. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  12. From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

    PubMed

    Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  13. Regime Shift by an Exotic Nitrogen-Fixing Shrub Mediates Plant Facilitation in Primary Succession

    PubMed Central

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  14. A Study of Community College Leadership Practices in Response to the Impending Leadership Crisis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Jane

    2012-01-01

    The literature attests to a leadership crisis that is predicted to impact leadership pipelines in just about every industry imaginable, including community colleges. This impending crisis is thought to be a result of baby boomer retirements plus the lack of next generation workers equipped with the skills to replace them. Community colleges are…

  15. Cenozoic Shift From Compression to Strike-Slip Stress Regime in the High Andes at 30°S, During the Shallowing of the Slab: Implications for the El Indio/Tambo Mineral District

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giambiagi, Laura; Álvarez, Patricia Pamela; Creixell, Christian; Mardonez, Diego; Murillo, Ismael; Velásquez, Ricardo; Lossada, Ana; Suriano, Julieta; Mescua, José; Barrionuevo, Matías

    2017-11-01

    In the High Andes of central Chile, above the flat-slab segment, analysis of more than 1,000 fault slip data from Miocene outcrops provides evidence for a change of the regional tectonic regime from compressional to strike slip. This shift in tectonic regime occurred during the waning stages of arc volcanism between 14 and 11 Ma, as a result of the shallowing of the Nazca plate, in conjunction with the migration of deformation to the Precordillera. During the early to middle Miocene, a compressive regime with horizontal σ1 axis (N86°E) was responsible for reverse slip along NNE to N-striking faults. During the late Miocene, a shift to strike-slip tectonics took place due to an increase in the absolute magnitude of the vertical stress component as the crust thickened and the gravitational potential energy increase. We argue that instead of the previously accepted highly compressional setting in the arc region during the slab flattening, the change to a strike-slip regime was the main control on mineralization. Mineralization was controlled by the promotion of fluid expulsion from the magma chambers along active, subvertical strike-slip fault systems with a high slip tendency, and focusing of fluids in localized areas undergoing extension. Under this strike-slip regime, the El Indio, Tambo, and La Despensa fault systems formed as dextral strike-slip systems. The tips and jogsites along these faults experienced local extensional stress fields, forming the El Indio and Tambo mineral districts.

  16. Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  17. A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

    2017-09-11

    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

  18. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  19. Nutritional status as an indicator of impending food stress*.

    PubMed

    Galvin, K A

    1988-06-01

    Famine early warning systems benefit from a variety of indicators which together signal the initial stages of food stress for particular population groups. Anthropometry has been used as an indicator in early warning systems, but there are inherent problems in its use which should be understood. Using data from Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, this paper discusses the problems of: time lag between food shortages and changes in body size and composition; use of reference points; accurate age assessment; and establishment of baseline data. Diet composition data are suggested to be an additional nutrition-oriented indicator of impending food stress and one in which problems associated with anthropometry are not inherent. Both measures may be useful in monitoring a population, but their strengths and weaknesses should be appreciated.

  20. Impending gangrene of fingers by constriction bands of mother's hair mistaken as pernio by parents: A case series of 10 infants.

    PubMed

    Bhat, Towseef Ahmad; Ali, Zameer; Moten, Tarseem Lal; Sofi, Aabid Hussain; Mir, Furqaan; Gulzar, Amara

    2017-01-01

    Long harsh winter in Kashmir Valley increase the incidence of pernio in children so much that common people consider every hand swelling as pernio. 10 Infants over two years were brought to our hospital as cases of pernio involving fingers. All the infants came out to be cases of impending gangrene due to mother's hair as constriction bands around fingers. Impending gangrene of fingers in infants due to mother hair as constriction band is very rare. However its symptoms overlap with symptoms of peripheral cold injuries and can be easily mistaken for each other by people.

  1. Bedside clinical signs associated with impending death in patients with advanced cancer: Preliminary findings of a prospective longitudinal cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David; dos Santos, Renata; Chisholm, Gary; Bansal, Swati; Crovador, Camila Souza; Bruera, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Background We recently reported 5 highly specific physical signs associated with death within 3 days among cancer patients that may aid the diagnosis of impending death. In this study, we examined the frequency and onset of an additional 52 bedside physical signs and their diagnostic performance for impending death. Methods We enrolled 357 consecutive patients with advanced cancer admitted to acute palliative care units at two tertiary care cancer centers. We systematically documented 52 physical signs every 12 hours from admission to death or discharge. We examined the frequency and median time of onset of each sign from death backwards, and calculated their likelihood ratios (LRs) associated with death in 3 days. Results 203/357 (57%) patients died at the end of the admission. We identified 8 physical signs that were highly diagnostic of impending death. These signs occurred in 5-78% of patients in the last 3 days of life, had a late onset, and had a high specificity (>95%) and high positive LR for death within 3 days, including non-reactive pupils (positive LR 16.7, 95% confidence interval 14.9-18.6), decreased response to verbal stimuli (8.3, 7.7-9), decreased response to visual stimuli (6.7, 6.3-7.1), inability to close eyelids (13.6, 11.7-15.5), drooping of nasolabial fold (8.3, 7.7-8.9), hyperextension of neck (7.3, 6.7-8), grunting of vocal cords (11.8, 10.3-13.4), and upper gastrointestinal bleed (10.3, 9.5-11.1). Conclusion We identified 8 highly specific physical signs associated with death within 3 days in cancer patients. These signs may inform the diagnosis of impending death. PMID:25676895

  2. Early Detection of Regime Shifts in Complex Systems from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    The central goal of sustainability is the maintenance of environmental conditions, which are favorable to human existence. A critically important element then is the resilience of the dynamic regime that one wishes to sustain. Resilient systems are able to withstand perturbations...

  3. Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

    2018-03-01

    We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

  4. Control of a haptic gear shifting assistance device utilizing a magnetorheological clutch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Young-Min; Choi, Seung-Bok

    2014-10-01

    This paper proposes a haptic clutch driven gear shifting assistance device that can help when the driver shifts the gear of a transmission system. In order to achieve this goal, a magnetorheological (MR) fluid-based clutch is devised to be capable of the rotary motion of an accelerator pedal to which the MR clutch is integrated. The proposed MR clutch is then manufactured, and its transmission torque is experimentally evaluated according to the magnetic field intensity. The manufactured MR clutch is integrated with the accelerator pedal to transmit a haptic cue signal to the driver. The impending control issue is to cue the driver to shift the gear via the haptic force. Therefore, a gear-shifting decision algorithm is constructed by considering the vehicle engine speed concerned with engine combustion dynamics, vehicle dynamics and driving resistance. Then, the algorithm is integrated with a compensation strategy for attaining the desired haptic force. In this work, the compensator is also developed and implemented through the discrete version of the inverse hysteretic model. The control performances, such as the haptic force tracking responses and fuel consumption, are experimentally evaluated.

  5. Evolutionary consequences of climate-induced range shifts in insects.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa A; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Hansson, Bengt; Ott, Jürgen; Wellenreuther, Maren

    2016-11-01

    Range shifts can rapidly create new areas of geographic overlap between formerly allopatric taxa and evidence is accumulating that this can affect species persistence. We review the emerging literature on the short- and long-term consequences of these geographic range shifts. Specifically, we focus on the evolutionary consequences of novel species interactions in newly created sympatric areas by describing the potential (i) short-term processes acting on reproductive barriers between species and (ii) long-term consequences of range shifts on the stability of hybrid zones, introgression and ultimately speciation and extinction rates. Subsequently, we (iii) review the empirical literature on insects to evaluate which processes have been studied, and (iv) outline some areas that deserve increased attention in the future, namely the genomics of hybridisation and introgression, our ability to forecast range shifts and the impending threat from insect vectors and pests on biodiversity, human health and crop production. Our review shows that species interactions in de novo sympatric areas can be manifold, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing species diversity. A key issue that emerges is that climate-induced hybridisations in insects are much more widespread than anticipated and that rising temperatures and increased anthropogenic disturbances are accelerating the process of species mixing. The existing evidence only shows the tip of the iceberg and we are likely to see many more cases of species mixing following range shifts in the near future. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  6. Maintaining Small Business Support in Times of Increased Army National Guard Utilization An Impending Crisis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-02-13

    business clientele, additional costs to hire a manager or replacement workers, complete loss of family income, and in extreme situations, bankruptcy, are...USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT MAINTAINING SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT IN TIMES OF INCREASED ARMY NATIONAL GUARD UTILIZATION: AN IMPENDING CRISIS by...00-00-2005 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Maintaining Small Business Support in Times of Increased Army National Guard Utilization An

  7. Relationship between glycaemic variability and hyperglycaemic clamp-derived functional variables in (impending) type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Van Dalem, Annelien; Demeester, Simke; Balti, Eric V; Decochez, Katelijn; Weets, Ilse; Vandemeulebroucke, Evy; Van de Velde, Ursule; Walgraeve, An; Seret, Nicole; De Block, Christophe; Ruige, Johannes; Gillard, Pieter; Keymeulen, Bart; Pipeleers, Daniel G; Gorus, Frans K

    2015-12-01

    We examined whether measures of glycaemic variability (GV), assessed by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), can complement or replace measures of beta cell function and insulin action in detecting the progression of preclinical disease to type 1 diabetes. Twenty-two autoantibody-positive (autoAb(+)) first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with type 1 diabetes who were themselves at high 5-year risk (50%) for type 1 diabetes underwent CGM, a hyperglycaemic clamp test and OGTT, and were followed for up to 31 months. Clamp variables were used to estimate beta cell function (first-phase [AUC5-10 min] and second-phase [AUC120-150 min] C-peptide release) combined with insulin resistance (glucose disposal rate; M 120-150 min). Age-matched healthy volunteers (n = 20) and individuals with recent-onset type 1 diabetes (n = 9) served as control groups. In autoAb(+) FDRs, M 120-150 min below the 10th percentile (P10) of controls achieved 86% diagnostic efficiency in discriminating between normoglycaemic FDRs and individuals with (impending) dysglycaemia. M 120-150 min outperformed AUC5-10 min and AUC120-150 min C-peptide below P10 of controls, which were only 59-68% effective. Among GV variables, CGM above the reference range was better at detecting (impending) dysglycaemia than elevated SMBG (77-82% vs 73% efficiency). Combined CGM measures were equally efficient as M 120-150 min (86%). Daytime GV variables were inversely correlated with clamp variables, and more strongly with M 120-150 min than with AUC5-10 min or AUC120-150 min C-peptide. CGM-derived GV and the glucose disposal rate, reflecting both insulin secretion and action, outperformed SMBG and first- or second-phase AUC C-peptide in identifying FDRs with (impending) dysglycaemia or diabetes. Our results indicate the feasibility of developing minimally invasive CGM-based criteria for close metabolic monitoring and as outcome measures in trials.

  8. Zero-G experiments in two-phase fluids flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heppner, D. B.; King, C. D.; Littles, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    The two-phase flows studied were liquid and gas mixtures in a straight flow channel of circular cross-section. Boundaries between flow regimes have been defined for normogravity on coordinates of gas quality and total mass velocity; and, when combined with boundary expressions having a Froude number term, an analytical model was derived predicting boundary shifts with changes in gravity level. Experiments with air and water were performed, first in the normogravity environment of a ground laboratory and then in 'zero gravity' aboard a KC-135 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Data reduction confirmed regime boundary shifts in the direction predicted, although the magnitude was a little less than predicted. Pressure drop measurements showed significant increases for the low gravity condition.

  9. Bedside clinical signs associated with impending death in patients with advanced cancer: preliminary findings of a prospective, longitudinal cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hui, David; Dos Santos, Renata; Chisholm, Gary; Bansal, Swati; Souza Crovador, Camila; Bruera, Eduardo

    2015-03-15

    Five highly specific physical signs associated with death within 3 days among cancer patients were recently reported that may aid in the diagnosis of impending death. In this study, the frequency and onset of another 52 bedside physical signs and their diagnostic performance for impending death were examined. Three hundred fifty-seven consecutive patients with advanced cancer who had been admitted to acute palliative care units at 2 tertiary care cancer centers were enrolled. Fifty-two physical signs were systematically documented every 12 hours from admission to death or discharge. The frequency and median time of onset of each sign from death backwards were examined, and the likelihood ratios (LRs) associated with death within 3 days were calculated. Two hundred three of the 357 patients (57%) died at the end of the admission. Eight physical signs that were highly diagnostic of impending death were identified. These signs occurred in 5% to 78% of the patients within the last 3 days of life, had a late onset, and had a high specificity (>95%) and a high positive LR for death within 3 days. They included nonreactive pupils (positive LR, 16.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 14.9-18.6), a decreased response to verbal stimuli (positive LR, 8.3; 95% CI, 7.7-9), a decreased response to visual stimuli (positive LR, 6.7; 95% CI, 6.3-7.1), an inability to close eyelids (positive LR, 13.6; 95% CI, 11.7-15.5), drooping of the nasolabial fold (positive LR, 8.3; 95% CI, 7.7-8.9), hyperextension of the neck (positive LR, 7.3; 95% CI, 6.7-8), grunting of vocal cords (positive LR, 11.8; 95% CI, 10.3-13.4), and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (positive LR, 10.3; 95% CI, 9.5-11.1). Eight highly specific physical signs associated with death within 3 days among cancer patients were identified. These signs may inform the diagnosis of impending death. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  10. Regimes of laser-induced periodic surface structure on germanium: radiation remnants and surface plasmons.

    PubMed

    Young, J F; Sipe, J E; van Driel, H M

    1983-08-01

    We present experimental evidence showing that the period of the rippled surface structure induced on germanium by 1.06-microm laser pulses undergoes a discontinuous shift above a certain threshold intensity. The measured shift, as a angle of incidence of the damaging beam, is quantitatively interpreted as a transition between a regime of inhomogeneous melting controlled by radiation-remnant field structures and a regime of ripple formation surface plasmons in an optically thick layer of liquid, metallic germanium formed at the surface.

  11. Impending thyroid storm in a pregnant woman with undiagnosed hyperthyroidism: A case report and literature review.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yushan; Li, Hao; Liu, Jin; Lin, Xuemei; Liu, Hui

    2018-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare complication during caesarean section of patients with hyperthyroidism. It occurs abruptly, with a high mortality rate if not recognized immediately and aggressively treated. Herein, we reported a case of impending thyroid storm during a caesarean section. A healthy 23-year-old woman with undiagnosed hyperthyroidism underwent an emergency caesarean section under general anesthesia. After tracheal extubation, the patient exhibited abnormal tachycardia, agitation, sweating, and hyperpyrexia. The clinical manifestation and the following thyroid function test indicate a high index of suspicion for impending thyroid storm. Hydrocortisone and esmolol were intravenously administered immediately. Propylthiouracil and propranolol were orally administered after the patient regained complete consciousness. Due to our immediate recognition and aggressive treatment, more serious manifestations of thyroid storm were avoided. Good antenatal care is very important for pregnant women, and they should be generally screened for thyroid disorders, especially if the resting heart rate is >100 beats/min and weight increases are inconsistent with gestational age. When hyperthyroidism is suspected, drugs that excite the sympathetic nerves or promote the release of histamine should not be used during caesarean section. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinter, N.; Fiedel, S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

  13. Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinter, Nicholas; Fiedel, Stuart; Keeley, Jon E.

    2011-02-01

    Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

  14. Vitreomacular Changes after Intravitreal Gas Injection for Idiopathic Impending or Early Macular Hole: An Optical Coherence Tomography Study.

    PubMed

    Tew, Teck-Boon; Chen, Ta-Ching; Yang, Chang-Hao; Yang, Chung-May

    2018-01-01

    To study the early changes of vitreomacular microstructure by optical coherence tomography (OCT) after intravitreal gas injection for the treatment of idiopathic impending or early full-thickness macular hole (FTMH). A retrospective, interventional case series. A total of 21 eyes were included. In the impending macular hole, 8/8 achieved vitreomacular traction (VMT) release, while a macular hole developed in 1 case. On postoperative day 1, the vitreomacular configuration by OCT showed either a flattening (n = 3) or elevation (n = 1) pattern. In early FTMH, vitreomacular separation was achieved in 10/13 cases, but macular hole closure was only observed in 3 cases. On postoperative day 1, only flattening of the vitreomacular configuration was observed (n = 5). Enlargement of the macular hole was found in 4 cases. VMT separation can be achieved with intravitreal gas injection by mechanically stretching the posterior vitreous cortex, causing either flattening or steepening of the vitreomacular configuration. However, it did not always result in macular hole closure. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Spatial and temporal variation of water temperature regimes on the Snoqualmie River network

    Treesearch

    Ashley E. Steel; Colin Sowder; Erin E. Peterson

    2016-01-01

    Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense...

  16. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  17. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  18. Resilience in ecotoxicology: Toward a multiple equilibrium concept

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Schulz, Ralf; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

    2017-01-01

    The term resilience describes stress–response patterns across scientific disciplines. In ecology, advances have been made to clearly define resilience based on underlying mechanistic assumptions. Engineering resilience (rebound) is used to describe the ability of organisms to recover from adverse conditions (disturbances), which is termed the rate of recovery. By contrast, the ecological resilience definition considers a systemic change, that is, when ecosystems reorganize into a new regime following disturbance. Under this new regime, structural and functional aspects change considerably relative to the previous regime, without recovery. In this context, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. In the present study, we argue that both definitions and uses are appropriate in ecotoxicology, and although the differences are subtle, the implications and uses are profoundly different. We discuss resilience concepts in ecotoxicology, where the prevailing view of resilience is engineering resilience from chemical stress. Ecological resilience may also be useful for describing systemic ecological changes because of chemical stress. We present quantitative methods that allow ecotoxicologists and risk managers to assess whether an ecosystem faces an impending regime shift or whether it has already undergone such a shift. We contend that engineering and ecological resilience help to distinguish ecotoxicological responses to chemical stressors mechanistically and thus have implications for theory, policy, and application.

  19. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    PubMed

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  20. Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meacher, J.; Chen, H. M.

    1974-01-01

    A test program was conducted with the objective of developing a method and equipment for on-line monitoring of installed ball bearings to detect deterioration or impending failure of the bearings. The program was directed at the spin-axis bearings of a control moment gyro. The bearings were tested at speeds of 6000 and 8000 rpm, thrust loads from 50 to 1000 pounds, with a wide range of lubrication conditions, with and without a simulated fatigue spall implanted in the inner race ball track. It was concluded that a bearing monitor system based on detection and analysis of modulations of a fault indicating bearing resonance frequency can provide a low threshold of sensitivity.

  1. Socio-ecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, CA, 1600-2015 CE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trouet, V.; Taylor, A. H.; Skinner, C. N.; Stephens, S.

    2016-12-01

    In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections. In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio

  2. Regime shifts in the Arctic North Atlantic during the Neoglacial revealed by seabirds and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, William J.; Hormes, Anne; Bakke, Jostein; Nicolaisen, Line

    2016-04-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. We report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver isotopically enriched nitrogen to nesting areas. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, using δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals with more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

  3. Regime Switching State-Space Models Applied to Psychological Processes: Handling Missing Data and Making Inferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamaker, E. L.; Grasman, R. P. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and shifts between a "hot hand" and a…

  4. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    PubMed

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  5. The role of internal fixation for long bone metastasis prior to impending fracture: an experimental model.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Mohammad; Terai, Hidetomi; Yamada, Kentaro; Suzuki, Akinobu; Toyoda, Hiromitsu; Nakamura, Hiroaki

    2013-07-01

    Patients with long bone metastasis have many therapeutic options, including surgery. However, the appropriate time for surgical intervention and the use of internal fixation prior to impending fracture remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to establish a long bone metastatic model with internal fixation, and to determine whether prophylactic internal fixation for long bone metastasis prior to impending fracture would affect bone destruction, tumor progression, and mortality. We implanted VX2 tumor cells into the tibiae of 45 rabbits divided equally into three groups: internal fixation, control, and sham groups. Rabbits were monitored by X-ray and computed tomography, and blood serum levels were examined every 2 weeks. Computed tomography data revealed significantly higher bone destruction in rabbit tibiae in the sham and control groups compared with those in the fixation group; there were volumetric bone losses of 0.2, 0.4, and 2.3% in the fixation, sham, and control groups, respectively, at 3 weeks, which increased to 1.2, 2.5, and 6.1% at 5 weeks. Rabbits in the fixation group showed significantly prolonged survival (64.5 ± 13.5 days) in comparison with rabbits in the sham group (50.3 ± 11.6 days) and control group (38.2 ± 4.9 days). Our results suggest that prophylactic internal fixation may hinder bone destruction and tumor progression, thus extending the survival period for patients with long bone metastasis.

  6. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

    PubMed Central

    Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A.; Chaffin, Brian C.; (Tom) Arnold, Craig A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark C.; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

    2018-01-01

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change. PMID:29780427

  7. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems.

    PubMed

    Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A; Chaffin, Brian C; Tom Arnold, Craig A; Fremier, Alexander K; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Benson, Melinda H; Morrison, Ryan R; Stone, Mark C; Hamm, Joseph A; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

    2017-03-17

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

  8. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

    2017-01-01

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

  9. Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

    2017-03-01

    Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community differentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

  10. Development of the One-Sided Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Serror, Judith A.

    2009-01-01

    The new development of a one-sided nonlinear adaptive shift estimation technique (NADSET) is introduced. The background of the algorithm and a brief overview of NADSET are presented. The new technique is applied to the wind parameter estimates from a 2-micron wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system called VALIDAR located in NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. The new technique enhances wind parameters such as Doppler shift and power estimates in low Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR) regimes using the estimates in high SNR regimes as the algorithm scans the range bins from low to high altitude. The original NADSET utilizes the statistics in both the lower and the higher range bins to refine the wind parameter estimates in between. The results of the two different approaches of NADSET are compared.

  11. Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

    2017-04-01

    We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

  12. Resilience in ecotoxicology: Toward a multiple equilibrium concept.

    PubMed

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Schulz, Ralf; Schäfer, Ralf B; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G

    2017-10-01

    The term resilience describes stress-response patterns across scientific disciplines. In ecology, advances have been made to clearly define resilience based on underlying mechanistic assumptions. Engineering resilience (rebound) is used to describe the ability of organisms to recover from adverse conditions (disturbances), which is termed the rate of recovery. By contrast, the ecological resilience definition considers a systemic change, that is, when ecosystems reorganize into a new regime following disturbance. Under this new regime, structural and functional aspects change considerably relative to the previous regime, without recovery. In this context, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. In the present study, we argue that both definitions and uses are appropriate in ecotoxicology, and although the differences are subtle, the implications and uses are profoundly different. We discuss resilience concepts in ecotoxicology, where the prevailing view of resilience is engineering resilience from chemical stress. Ecological resilience may also be useful for describing systemic ecological changes because of chemical stress. We present quantitative methods that allow ecotoxicologists and risk managers to assess whether an ecosystem faces an impending regime shift or whether it has already undergone such a shift. We contend that engineering and ecological resilience help to distinguish ecotoxicological responses to chemical stressors mechanistically and thus have implications for theory, policy, and application. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2574-2580. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  13. Adiabatic perturbation theory for atoms and molecules in the low-frequency regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martiskainen, Hanna; Moiseyev, Nimrod

    2017-12-01

    There is an increasing interest in the photoinduced dynamics in the low frequency, ω, regime. The multiphoton absorptions by molecules in strong laser fields depend on the polarization of the laser and on the molecular structure. The unique properties of the interaction of atoms and molecules with lasers in the low-frequency regime imply new concepts and directions in strong-field light-matter interactions. Here we represent a perturbational approach for the calculations of the quasi-energy spectrum in the low-frequency regime, which avoids the construction of the Floquet operator with extremely large number of Floquet channels. The zero-order Hamiltonian in our perturbational approach is the adiabatic Hamiltonian where the atoms/molecules are exposed to a dc electric field rather than to ac-field. This is in the spirit of the first step in the Corkum three-step model. The second-order perturbation correction terms are obtained when i ℏ ω ∂/∂ τ serves as a perturbation and τ is a dimensionless variable. The second-order adiabatic perturbation scheme is found to be an excellent approach for calculating the ac-field Floquet solutions in our test case studies of a simple one-dimensional time-periodic model Hamiltonian. It is straightforward to implement the perturbation approach presented here for calculating atomic and molecular energy shifts (positions) due to the interaction with low-frequency ac-fields using high-level electronic structure methods. This is enabled since standard quantum chemistry packages allow the calculations of atomic and molecular energy shifts due to the interaction with dc-fields. In addition to the shift of the energy positions, the energy widths (inverse lifetimes) can be obtained at the same level of theory. These energy shifts are functions of the laser parameters (low frequency, intensity, and polarization).

  14. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    PubMed

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  15. Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Elser, James J.; Elser, Timothy J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this “Green Revolution” has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007–2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  16. Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2007-07-01

    We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

  17. No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

    PubMed Central

    Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes

  18. No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rozek, Jessica C.; Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

    2017-01-01

    There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes

  19. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-01-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

  20. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

    2017-11-01

    Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

  1. THE TWO REGIMES OF PHOTOSPHERIC MOTIONS IN {alpha} HYDRA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gray, David F., E-mail: dfgray@uwo.ca

    2013-02-10

    High-resolution spectroscopic observations of {alpha} Hya were acquired between 2003 and 2010. Analysis of line shifts, differential shifts, line widths, and line bisectors points to two regimes of velocity fields in the photosphere of {alpha} Hya: (1) normal granulation embedded in (2) large convection cells. Variations occur on a wide range of timescales, from several years on down. Radial velocity variations, which are irregular and span 786 m s{sup -1}, have a distribution consistent with a true mean rise velocity of the large cells of {approx}725 m s{sup -1} and a dispersion of {approx}220 m s{sup -1}. The distribution ofmore » granulation velocities, as measured from the widths of spectral lines, shows only small variations, consistent with the two regime concepts. On the multi-year timescale, radial velocity changes, small temperature variations ({approx}10 K), and small line-width variations ({approx}<0.8%) track each other, possibly with phase shifts. The granulation velocity gradient for {alpha} Hya is about half as large as the Sun's and no variation with time was seen, implying that any variation in velocity gradient from one large cell to the next must be less than a few percent. The asymmetry in the granulation velocity distribution, as specified in the flux deficit, is smaller than expected for {alpha} Hya's position in the HR diagram and appears to be variable.« less

  2. Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenkoff, Claude; Castonguay, Martin; Chabot, Denis; Hammill, Mike O.; Bourdages, Hugo; Morissette, Lyne

    2007-07-01

    Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.

  3. Analog-based fire regime and vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of the western US

    Treesearch

    Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Marc-Andre Parisien

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is expected to result in substantial ecological impacts across the globe. These impacts are uncertain but there is strong consensus that they will almost certainly affect fire regimes and vegetation. In this study, we evaluated how climate change may influence fire frequency, fire severity, and broad classes of vegetation in mountainous ecoregions of the...

  4. Isochronic carrier-envelope phase-shift compensator.

    PubMed

    Görbe, Mihaly; Osvay, Karoly; Grebing, Christian; Steinmeyer, Günter

    2008-11-15

    A concept for orthogonal control of phase and group delay inside a laser cavity by a specially designed compensator assembly is discussed. Similar to the construction of variable polarization retarder, this assembly consists of two thin wedge prisms made from appropriately chosen optical materials. Being shifted as a whole, the assembly allows changing the phase delay with no influence on the cavity round-trip time, whereas relative shifting of the prisms enables adjustment of the latter. This scheme is discussed theoretically and verified experimentally, indicating a factor 30 reduction of the influence on the repetition rate compared to the commonly used silica wedge pair. For a 2pi adjustment of the carrier-envelope phase shift, single-pass timing differences are reduced to the single-femtosecond regime. With negligible distortions of timing and dispersion, the described compensator device greatly simplifies carrier-envelope phase control and experiments in extreme nonlinear optics. Copyright (c) 2008 Optical Society of America.

  5. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  6. Comparison of Percutaneous Cementoplasty with and Without Interventional Internal Fixation for Impending Malignant Pathological Fracture of the Proximal Femur

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tian, Qing-Hua, E-mail: ddqinghua-tian@163.com; He, Cheng-Jian, E-mail: tianhechengjian@163.com; Wu, Chun-Gen, E-mail: 649514608@qq.com

    PurposeTo compare the efficacy of percutaneous cementoplasty (PCP) with and without interventional internal fixation (IIF) on malignant impending pathological fracture of proximal femur.MethodsA total of 40 patients with malignant impending pathological fracture of proximal femur were selected for PCP and IIF (n = 19, group A) or PCP alone (n = 21, group B) in this non-randomized prospective study. Bone puncture needles were inserted into the proximal femur, followed by sequential installation of the modified trocar inner needles through the puncture needle sheath. Then, 15–45 ml cement was injected into the femur lesion.ResultsThe overall excellent and good pain relief rate during follow-ups were significantly highermore » in group A than that in group B (89 vs. 57 %, P = 0.034). The average change of VAS, ODI, KPS, and EFES in group A were significantly higher than those in group B at 1-, 3-, 6-month, 1-year (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, The stability of the treated femur was significantly higher in group A than that in group B (P < 0.05).ConclusionPCP and IIF were not only a safe and effective procedure, but resulted in greater pain relief, bone consolidation, and also reduced the risk of fracture than the currently recommended approach of PCP done on malignant proximal femoral tumor.« less

  7. Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

    2014-12-01

    The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total

  8. Manual Aspiration Thrombectomy with Stent Placement: Rapid and Effective Treatment for Phlegmasia Cerulea Dolens with Impending Venous Gangrene

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Oguzkurt, Levent, E-mail: loguzkurt@yahoo.com; Tercan, Fahri; Ozkan, Ugur

    2008-01-15

    Phlegmasia cerulea dolens is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication of acute deep vein thrombosis. It is an emergency and delay in treatment may cause death or loss of the patient's limb. Surgical thrombectomy is the recommended treatment in venous gangrene. Catheter-directed intrathrombus thrombolysis has been reported as successful, but it may require a lengthy infusion. Manual aspiration thrombectomy may clear the entire thrombus with no need for thrombolytic administration and provide rapid and effective treatment for patients with phlegmasia cerulea dolens with impending venous gangrene.

  9. Regime change: re-visiting the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs.

    PubMed

    Bewley-Taylor, David; Jelsma, Martin

    2012-01-01

    March 2011 marked the 50th anniversary of the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs. This legal instrument, the bedrock of the current United Nations based global drug control regime, is often viewed as merely a consolidating treaty bringing together the multilateral drug control agreements that preceded it; an erroneous position that does little to provide historical context for contemporary discussions surrounding revision of the international treaty system. This article applies both historical and international relations perspectives to revisit the development of the Convention. Framing discussion within the context of regime theory, a critique of the foundational pre-1961 treaties is followed by detailed content analysis of the official records of the United Nations conference for the adoption of a Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs and, mindful of later treaties, an examination of the treaty's status as a 'single' convention. The Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs represents a significant break with the regulative focus of the preceding multilateral treaties; a shift towards a more prohibitive outlook that within international relations terms can be regarded as a change of regime rather than the straightforward codification of earlier instruments. In this respect, the article highlights the abolition of drug use that for centuries had been embedded in the social, cultural and religious traditions of many non-Western states. Further, although often-overlooked, the Convention has failed in its aim of being the 'single' instrument within international drug control. The supplementing treaties developed in later years and under different socio-economic and political circumstances have resulted in significant inconsistencies within the control regime. Having established that a shift in normative focus has taken place in the past, the article concludes that it is timely for the international community to revisit the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs with a view to

  10. The political use of psychiatry: A comparison between totalitarian regimes.

    PubMed

    Buoli, Massimiliano; Giannuli, Aldo Sabino

    2017-03-01

    After the end of Second World War, the recent experience of the Nazi horrors stimulated a debate about the political use of psychiatry. Over the years, the focus shifted on major dictatorships of the time and especially on Soviet Union. This article aims to provide a critical review of the ways in which psychiatry was used by totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. We summarized relevant literature about political use of psychiatry in totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, with particular focus on Fascism, Nazism, Argentina dictatorship, Soviet Union and China. One of the features that are common to most of the dictatorships is that the use of psychiatry has become more prominent when the regimes have had the need to make more acceptable the imprisonment of enemies in the eyes of the world. This for example happened in the Nazi regime when sterilization and killing of psychiatric patients was explained as a kind of euthanasia, or in the Soviet Union after the formal closure of the corrective labor camps and the slow resumption of relations with the capitalistic world, or in China to justify persecution of religious minorities and preserve economic relations with Western countries. Psychiatry has been variously used by totalitarian regimes as a means of political persecution and especially when it was necessary to make acceptable to public opinion the imprisonment of political opponents.

  11. Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

    2016-06-01

    Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

  12. Dynamical resonance shift and unification of resonances in short-pulse laser-cluster interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahalik, S. S.; Kundu, M.

    2018-06-01

    Pronounced maximum absorption of laser light irradiating a rare-gas or metal cluster is widely expected during the linear resonance (LR) when Mie-plasma wavelength λM of electrons equals the laser wavelength λ . On the contrary, by performing molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of an argon cluster irradiated by short 5-fs (FWHM) laser pulses it is revealed that, for a given laser pulse energy and a cluster, at each peak intensity there exists a λ —shifted from the expected λM—that corresponds to a unified dynamical LR at which evolution of the cluster happens through very efficient unification of possible resonances in various stages, including (i) the LR in the initial time of plasma creation, (ii) the LR in the Coulomb expanding phase in the later time, and (iii) anharmonic resonance in the marginally overdense regime for a relatively longer pulse duration, leading to maximum laser absorption accompanied by maximum removal of electrons from cluster and also maximum allowed average charge states for the argon cluster. Increasing the laser intensity, the absorption maxima is found to shift to a higher wavelength in the band of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM than permanently staying at the expected λM. A naive rigid sphere model also corroborates the wavelength shift of the absorption peak as found in MD and unequivocally proves that maximum laser absorption in a cluster happens at a shifted λ in the marginally overdense regime of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM instead of λM of LR. The present study is important for guiding an optimal condition laser-cluster interaction experiment in the short-pulse regime.

  13. Neurophysiological detection of impending spinal cord injury during scoliosis surgery.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Daniel M; Auerbach, Joshua D; Dormans, John P; Flynn, John; Drummond, Denis S; Bowe, J Andrew; Laufer, Samuel; Shah, Suken A; Bowen, J Richard; Pizzutillo, Peter D; Jones, Kristofer J; Drummond, Denis S

    2007-11-01

    Despite the many reports attesting to the efficacy of intraoperative somatosensory evoked potential monitoring in reducing the prevalence of iatrogenic spinal cord injury during corrective scoliosis surgery, these afferent neurophysiological signals can provide only indirect evidence of injury to the motor tracts since they monitor posterior column function. Early reports on the use of transcranial electric motor evoked potentials to monitor the corticospinal motor tracts directly suggested that the method holds great promise for improving detection of emerging spinal cord injury. We sought to compare the efficacy of these two methods of monitoring to detect impending iatrogenic neural injury during scoliosis surgery. We reviewed the intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring records of 1121 consecutive patients (834 female and 287 male) with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (mean age, 13.9 years) treated between 2000 and 2004 at four pediatric spine centers. The same group of experienced surgical neurophysiologists monitored spinal cord function in all patients with use of a standardized multimodality technique with the patient under total intravenous anesthesia. A relevant neurophysiological change (an alert) was defined as a reduction in amplitude (unilateral or bilateral) of at least 50% for somatosensory evoked potentials and at least 65% for transcranial electric motor evoked potentials compared with baseline. Thirty-eight (3.4%) of the 1121 patients had recordings that met the criteria for a relevant signal change (i.e., an alert). Of those thirty-eight patients, seventeen showed suppression of the amplitude of transcranial electric motor evoked potentials in excess of 65% without any evidence of changes in somatosensory evoked potentials. In nine of the thirty-eight patients, the signal change was related to hypotension and was corrected with augmentation of the blood pressure. The remaining twenty-nine patients had an alert that was related directly to a

  14. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

    PubMed Central

    Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

    2002-01-01

    Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

  15. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia.

    PubMed

    Cumming, Brian F; Laird, Kathleen R; Bennett, Joseph R; Smol, John P; Salomon, Anne K

    2002-12-10

    Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansionrecession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions.

  16. Exciton diamagnetic shift and optical properties in CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots in magnetic fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shudong; Cheng, Liwen

    2018-04-01

    The magnetic field dependence of the optical properties of CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots (NQDs) is investigated theoretically using a perturbation method within the effective-mass approximation. The results show that the magnetic field lifts the degeneracy of the electron (hole) states. A blue-shift in the absorption spectra of m ≥ 0 exciton states is observed while the absorption peak of m < 0 exciton states is first red-shifted and then blue-shifted with increasing the magnetic field strength B. This is attributed to the interplay of the orbital Zeeman effect and the additive confinement induced by the magnetic field. The excitonic absorption coefficient is almost independent of B in the strong confinement regime. The applied magnetic field causes the splitting of degenerated exciton states, resulting in the new absorption peaks. Based on the first-order perturbation theory, we propose the analytical expressions for the exciton binding energy, exciton transition energy and exciton diamagnetic shift of 1s, 1p-1, 1p0, 1p1, 1d-2, 1d-1, 1d0, 1d1, 1d2 and 2s exciton states on the applied magnetic field in the strong confinement regime.

  17. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Can urinary excretion rate of malondialdehyde, uric acid and protein predict the severity and impending death in perinatal asphyxia?

    PubMed

    Banupriya, C; Ratnakar; Doureradjou, P; Mondal, N; Vishnu, Bhat; Koner, B C

    2008-08-01

    Perinatal asphyxia (PA) associated with multi-organ damage is a leading cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We evaluated if urinary malondialdehyde:creatinine (UMDA:Cr), uric acid:creatinine (UUA:Cr) and protein:creatinine (UP:Cr) vary with the severity of PA and if these parameters can predict the impending death in PA. Study included 20 asphyxiated and 20 healthy newborn males. Hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) staging, APGAR (activity, pulse, grimace, appearance and respiration) score and urinary protein, uric acid, creatinine and MDA were evaluated. UMDA:Cr, UUA:Cr and UP:Cr were significantly higher and correlated with APGAR and HIE in PA. By regression analysis also, urinary parameters were found to have significant association with HIE stage and APGAR in PA. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of UP:Cr, UUA:Cr and UMDA:Cr showed area under curve of 0.896 (p=0.003), 0.859 (p=0.008) and 0.849 (p=0.010) with cut-off value of 9.04 mg, 2.34 mg and 3.49 microg/mg of creatinine respectively that can optimally predict the impending death in PA. SDS-PAGE of unconcentrated urine detected both high (73 kDa and 68 kDa) and low molecular weight proteins (52 kDa, 47 kDa, 25 kDa and 20 kDa) in PA but not in controls. Urinary excretion rate of uric acid, MDA and proteins is higher and has potential to act as biochemical markers for severity evaluation and death prediction in PA.

  19. Long-term care and dementia services: an impending crisis.

    PubMed

    Macdonald, Alastair; Cooper, Brian

    2007-01-01

    since the transfer of long-stay care to the independent sector, provision of places in care homes in the United Kingdom has varied in response to market trends, and has shown a consistent fall in the past 10 years. People with dementia constitute the largest diagnostic group affected by these changes, and are also likely to be the group that will determine future need. We therefore estimated the number and proportion of older residents in care homes who suffer from dementia relative to all those with dementia in the United Kingdom and projected future levels of demand on the basis of this data. the number of dementia cases in long-stay care was estimated from a random sample survey in south-east England and compared with data on age-specific prevalence. Projections of future demand were based on UK population projections for the next 40 years. over half of all people with dementia in the United Kingdom are in care homes. The number of available long-stay places in care homes has fallen by one-sixth over the past decade. Projection of future demand suggests that well over double the present total places in care homes would be required by 2043 to maintain the present ratio of institutional to community services for dementia. this finding suggests an impending crisis of availability. A more realistic scenario calls for investment in affordable domiciliary care of good quality, but it will also depend on the acceptance of the fact that the main function of long-stay care for old people is now to provide for advanced cases of dementia, with consequent requirement for improvement in staff ratios and training.

  20. Theoretical aspects of femtosecond double-pump single-molecule spectroscopy. I. Weak-field regime.

    PubMed

    Palacino-González, Elisa; Gelin, Maxim F; Domcke, Wolfgang

    2017-12-13

    We present a theoretical description of double-pump femtosecond single-molecule signals with fluorescence detection. We simulate these signals in the weak-field regime for a model mimicking a chromophore with a Franck-Condon-active vibrational mode. We establish several signatures of these signals which are characteristic for the weak-field regime. The signatures include the quenching of vibrational beatings by electronic dephasing and a pronounced tilt of the phase-time profiles in the two-dimensional (2D) maps. We study how environment-induced slow modulations of the electronic dephasing and relevant chromophore parameters (electronic energy, orientation, vibrational frequency and relative shift of the potential energy surfaces) affect the signals.

  1. When exercise does not pay: Counterproductive effects of impending exercise on energy intake among restrained eaters.

    PubMed

    Sim, Aaron Y; Lee, Li Ling; Cheon, Bobby K

    2018-04-01

    Evidence suggests people may overestimate the effectiveness of future positive behaviour, leading to counterproductive behaviours in the present. Applied to weight-management, we hypothesize that inaccurate expectations about impending exercise may impede weight management by promoting overconsumption prior to exercise. This study aimed to determine how expectations about impending exercise and its potential ability to expend energy may influence i) energy intake before exercise and ii) overall energy balance (energy intake minus energy expended via exercise). Using a randomised, counterbalanced design, 21 inactive, overweight males, following a baseline session, completed two experimental trials: i) ad-libitum snack meal (potato-crisps) followed by an exercise session (SE) and ii) ad-libitum snack meal only (SO). There was no main effect of condition (SE vs. SO) on ad-libitum snack intake (p = .917). However, after accounting for dietary restraint (covariate), a difference in snack intake between SE and SO was revealed (p = .050). Specifically, participants who scored higher in dietary restraint consumed more in the SE (vs. SO) session (162 ± 359 kcal more) compared with participants who scored lower in dietary restraint (89 ± 135 kcal less). Among restrained eaters, the relative (net) energy consumed after accounting for energy expended from exercise in SE was not different from the energy consumed in the SO condition, suggesting that energy expended via exercise in SE does not appear to negate extra energy consumed in this condition compared with SO. Of interest, desire to eat and prospective food consumption ratings at the start of the trial were greater (p ≤ .029) in SE compared with SO. Findings suggest that restrained-eaters are at risk of adopting compensatory eating behaviour that may impede negative energy balance typically resulting from exercise (i.e. expending insufficient energy to negate compensatory energy intake

  2. Nonlinear focal shift beyond the geometrical focus in moderately focused acoustic beams.

    PubMed

    Camarena, Francisco; Adrián-Martínez, Silvia; Jiménez, Noé; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor

    2013-08-01

    The phenomenon of the displacement of the position along the axis of the pressure, intensity, and radiation force maxima of focused acoustic beams under increasing driving voltages (nonlinear focal shift) is studied for the case of a moderately focused beam. The theoretical and experimental results show the existence of this shift along the axis when the initial pressure in the transducer increases until the acoustic field reaches the fully developed nonlinear regime of propagation. Experimental data show that at high amplitudes and for moderate focusing, the position of the on-axis pressure maximum and radiation force maximum can surpass the geometrical focal length. On the contrary, the on-axis pressure minimum approaches the transducer under increasing driving voltages, increasing the distance between the positive and negative peak pressure in the beam. These results are in agreement with numerical KZK model predictions and the existed data of other authors and can be explained according to the effect of self-refraction characteristic of the nonlinear regime of propagation.

  3. Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-03-01

    The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

  4. Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.

    PubMed

    Beck, Pieter S A; Juday, Glenn P; Alix, Claire; Barber, Valerie A; Winslow, Stephen E; Sousa, Emily E; Heiser, Patricia; Herriges, James D; Goetz, Scott J

    2011-04-01

    Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Food-web stability signals critical transitions in temperate shallow lakes

    PubMed Central

    Kuiper, Jan J.; van Altena, Cassandra; de Ruiter, Peter C.; van Gerven, Luuk P. A.; Janse, Jan H.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-01-01

    A principal aim of ecologists is to identify critical levels of environmental change beyond which ecosystems undergo radical shifts in their functioning. Both food-web theory and alternative stable states theory provide fundamental clues to mechanisms conferring stability to natural systems. Yet, it is unclear how the concept of food-web stability is associated with the resilience of ecosystems susceptible to regime change. Here, we use a combination of food web and ecosystem modelling to show that impending catastrophic shifts in shallow lakes are preceded by a destabilizing reorganization of interaction strengths in the aquatic food web. Analysis of the intricate web of trophic interactions reveals that only few key interactions, involving zooplankton, diatoms and detritus, dictate the deterioration of food-web stability. Our study exposes a tight link between food-web dynamics and the dynamics of the whole ecosystem, implying that trophic organization may serve as an empirical indicator of ecosystem resilience. PMID:26173798

  6. Regime shifts in the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years: A record of seabird population size and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, W. J.; Hormes, A.; Bakke, J.; Nicolaisen, L.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. Here, we report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver this isotopically enriched nitrogen to their nesting area. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the bulk nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, by measuring δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals having more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the

  7. Abrupt and severe 20th Century changes in the fire regimes of southeastern Australia: Evidence from a 3000 year multi-proxy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Patrick; Mooney, Scott; Allen, Kathryn; Willersdorf, Timothy

    2015-04-01

    Fire is the dominant natural disturbance in southeastern Australia. For millennia it has been the driving force shaping terrestrial ecosystems in the region -- simultaneously killing vegetation and initiating regeneration across whole landscapes. Fire regimes across the region are driven by several factors including climate, vegetation, and ignition sources. Humans have been a significant contributing factor to past and present fire regimes. Prior to European settlement in the late 1700s, Aboriginal Australians used frequent, low-intensity fires to manage vegetation across much of the landscape. European settlement led to the displacement of Aboriginal communities and a shift to active fire suppression and control. This changing approach to fire management is widely believed to have initiated a fundamental shift towards extreme, high-intensity fire events as fuel loads increased. In addition, during the 20th Century prolonged periods of warm, dry conditions have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. The relative importance of climate and fire management practices on contemporary fire regimes is vigorously debated in Australia and is directly relevant to land management policies and their implementation. To put the current fire regime into historical context, we used a multi-proxy approach combining palaeo-charcoal and tree-ring analyses to assess how fire regimes have changed over the last 3000 years in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia. We found almost no evidence of high-intensity fires in the 3000 years that preceded the 20th Century. However, in the mid-20th Century there is a sudden and dramatic increase in the presence of charcoal and the pulsed establishment of trees across the landscape, suggesting a recent shift from low-intensity fires with minimal charcoal signatures to moderate- to high-intensity fires with substantial charcoal inputs. Importantly, the tree-ring data demonstrate that most of these fires were not stand

  8. Phase shift in atom interferometry due to spacetime curvature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overstreet, Chris; Asenbaum, Peter; Kovachy, Tim; Brown, Daniel; Hogan, Jason; Kasevich, Mark

    2017-04-01

    In previous matter wave interferometers, the interferometer arm separation was small enough that gravitational tidal forces across the arms can be neglected. Gravitationally-induced phase shifts in such experiments arise from the acceleration of the interfering particles with respect to the interferometer beam splitters and mirrors. By increasing the interferometer arm separation, we enter a new regime in which the arms experience resolvably different gravitational forces. Using a single-source gravity gradiometer, we measure a phase shift associated with the tidal forces induced by a nearby test mass. This is the first observation of spacetime curvature across the spatial extent of a single quantum system. CO acknowledges funding from the Stanford Graduate Fellowship.

  9. Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management.

    PubMed

    Möllmann, Christian; Conversi, Alessandra; Edwards, Martin

    2011-08-23

    Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies. This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

  10. Identifying and Investigating the Late-1960s Interhemispheric SST Shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedman, A. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Liu, Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2014-12-01

    The global north-south interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) difference experienced a pronounced and rapid decrease in the late 1960s, which has been linked to drying in the Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia. However, some basic questions about the interhemispheric SST shift remain unresolved, including its scale and whether the constituent changes in different basins were coordinated. In this study, we systematically investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of the late-1960s interhemispheric SST shift using ocean surface and subsurface observations. We also evaluate potential mechanisms using control and specific-forcing CMIP5 simulations. Using a regime shift detection technique, we identify the late-1960s shift as the most prominent in the historical observational SST record. We additionally examine the corresponding changes in upper-ocean heat content and salinity associated with the shift. We find that there were coordinated upper-ocean cooling and freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic, the region of the largest-magnitude SST decrease during the interhemispheric shift. These upper-ocean changes correspond to a weakened North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). However, the THC decrease does not fully account for the rapid global interhemispheric SST shift, particularly the warming in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.

  11. Persistent ecological shifts in marine molluscan assemblages across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Aberhan, Martin; Kiessling, Wolfgang

    2015-06-09

    Contemporary biodiversity loss and population declines threaten to push the biosphere toward a tipping point with irreversible effects on ecosystem composition and function. As a potential example of a global-scale regime shift in the geological past, we assessed ecological changes across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction based on molluscan assemblages at four well-studied sites. By contrasting preextinction and postextinction rank abundance and numerical abundance in 19 molluscan modes of life--each defined as a unique combination of mobility level, feeding mode, and position relative to the substrate--we find distinct shifts in ecospace utilization, which significantly exceed predictions from null models. The magnitude of change in functional traits relative to normal temporal fluctuations at far-flung sites indicates that molluscan assemblages shifted to differently structured systems and faunal response was global. The strengths of temporal ecological shifts, however, are mostly within the range of preextinction site-to-site variability, demonstrating that local ecological turnover was similar to geographic variation over a broad latitudinal range. In conjunction with varied site-specific temporal patterns of individual modes of life, these spatial and temporal heterogeneities argue against a concerted phase shift of molluscan assemblages from one well-defined regime to another. At a broader ecological level, by contrast, congruent tendencies emerge and suggest deterministic processes. These patterns comprise the well-known increase of deposit-feeding mollusks in postextinction assemblages and increases in predators and predator-resistant modes of life, i.e., those characterized by elevated mobility and infaunal life habits.

  12. Height Dependency of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction Regimes: Height Dependency of ACI Regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chen, Jingyi; Liu, Yangang; Zhang, Minghua

    This study investigates the height dependency of aerosol-cloud interaction regimes in terms of the joint dependence of the key cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud droplet number concentration, cloud droplet relative dispersion, etc.) on aerosol number concentration (N a) and vertical velocity (w). The three distinct regimes with different microphysical features are the aerosol-limited regime, the updraft-limited regime, and the transitional regime. The results reveal two new phenomena in updraft-limited regime: 1) The “condensational broadening” of cloud droplet size distribution in contrast to the well-known “condensational narrowing” in the aerosol-limited regime; 2) Above the level of maximum supersaturation, some cloud dropletsmore » are deactivated into interstitial aerosols in the updraft-limited regime whereas all droplets remain activated in the aerosol-limited regime. Further analysis shows that the particle equilibrium supersaturation plays important role in understanding these unique features. Also examined is the height of warm rain initiation and its dependence on N a and w. The rain initiation height is found to depend primarily on either N a or w or both in different N a-w regimes, thus suggesting a strong regime dependence of the second aerosol indirect effect.« less

  13. Height Dependency of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction Regimes: Height Dependency of ACI Regime

    DOE PAGES

    Chen, Jingyi; Liu, Yangang; Zhang, Minghua; ...

    2018-01-10

    This study investigates the height dependency of aerosol-cloud interaction regimes in terms of the joint dependence of the key cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud droplet number concentration, cloud droplet relative dispersion, etc.) on aerosol number concentration (N a) and vertical velocity (w). The three distinct regimes with different microphysical features are the aerosol-limited regime, the updraft-limited regime, and the transitional regime. The results reveal two new phenomena in updraft-limited regime: 1) The “condensational broadening” of cloud droplet size distribution in contrast to the well-known “condensational narrowing” in the aerosol-limited regime; 2) Above the level of maximum supersaturation, some cloud dropletsmore » are deactivated into interstitial aerosols in the updraft-limited regime whereas all droplets remain activated in the aerosol-limited regime. Further analysis shows that the particle equilibrium supersaturation plays important role in understanding these unique features. Also examined is the height of warm rain initiation and its dependence on N a and w. The rain initiation height is found to depend primarily on either N a or w or both in different N a-w regimes, thus suggesting a strong regime dependence of the second aerosol indirect effect.« less

  14. Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

    2017-06-01

    In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than 25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than 25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant

  15. Electrically Tunable Goos-Hänchen Effect with Graphene in the Terahertz Regime

    DOE PAGES

    Fan, Yuancheng; Shen, Nian-Hai; Zhang, Fuli; ...

    2016-07-14

    Goos-Hänchen (G-H) effect is of great interest in the manipulation of optical beams. However, it is still fairly challenging to attain efficient controls of the G-H shift for diverse applications. Here, we propose a mechanism to realize tunable G-H shift in the terahertz regime with electrically controllable graphene. Taking monolayer graphene covered epsilon-near-zero metamaterial as a planar model system, it is found that the G-H shift for the orthogonal s-polarized and p-polarized terahertz beams at oblique incidence are positive and negative, respectively. The G-H shift can be modified substantially by electrically controlling the Fermi energy of the monolayer graphene. Reversely,more » the Fermi energy dependent G-H effect can also be used as a strategy for measuring the doping level of graphene. In addition, the G-H shifts of the system are of strong frequency-dependence at oblique angles of incidence, therefore the proposed graphene hybrid system can potentially be used for the generation of terahertz “rainbow”, a flat analog of the dispersive prism in optics. The proposed scheme of hybrid system involving graphene for dynamic control of G-H shift will have potential applications in the manipulation of terahertz waves.« less

  16. Phytoliths as a tool to track plant community changes after fire regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirchholtes, R.; van Mourik, J. M.; Johnson, B. R.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenically induced changes to the historical fire regime are excellent analogues to study the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem responses to present-day environmental changes. Fire suppression and loss of indigenous burning practices in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (USA) has led to near disappearance of the Oregon white oak savanna. The specific goal of this study was to better understand the pace and character with which the Oregon oak savannas are disappearing. Under suppressed fire regimes the shade-intolerant Garry oaks (Quercus garryana) are outcompeted by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). As a consequence, the Oregon white oak savanna has been reduced to <5% of its former extent. While detrimental to the regional biodiversity due to habitat loss and fragmentation of the many savanna-dependent plant and animal species, this system does capture a long-term continuous record of the plant community response to ecological disturbances. Because conventional indicators used in floristic reconstructions (pollen, spores etc.) are seldom preserved in the dry, oxidized sediments of savannas, we used phytoliths to establish the change in plant communities. Phytoliths are small yet robust silica particles produced by most plants. Many phytoliths take on cell shapes diagnostic of specific plant lineages, acting as indicators of their past presence. By reconstructing the vegetation patterns at the Jim's Creek Research Area using phytoliths, we confirm the pattern of rapid tree encroachment. In addition to grasses, the phytolith assemblages which represent the landscape from about 150 years ago, also document the presence of pines and firs. This suggests that (1) the Willamette Valley savannas did not exclusively consist of grass and oaks and (2) it took less than 150 years to change from and open landscape to a densely forested one. Under a warming climate and changing precipitation patterns, reducing fire risk, fire intensity and fuel loading is critical

  17. Rainbow trout versus brook trout biomass and production under varied climate regimes in small southern Appalachian streams

    Treesearch

    Bonnie. J.E. Myers; C. Andrew Dolloff; Andrew L. Rypel

    2014-01-01

    Many Appalachian streams historically dominated by Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis have experienced shifts towards fish communities dominated by Rainbow Trout Onchorhynchus mykiss. We used empirical estimates of biomass and secondary production of trout conspecifics to evaluate species success under varied thermal regimes. Trout...

  18. Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ormond, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

  19. Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, P.J.; Piatt, John F.

    1999-01-01

    A shift in ocean climate during the late 1970s triggered a reorganization of community structure in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem, as evidenced in changing catch composition on long-term (1953 to 1997) small-mesh trawl surveys. Forage species such as pandalid shrimp and capelin declined because of recruitment failure and predation, and populations have not yet recovered. Total trawl catch biomass declined >50% and remained low through the 1980s. In contrast, recruitment of high trophic-level groundfish improved during the 1980s, yielding a >250% increase in catch biomass during the 1990s. This trophic reorganization apparently had negative effects on piscivorous sea birds and marine mammals.

  20. Special report on taxation. Prepare for impending legislation that could threaten your tax-exempt status!

    PubMed

    Miller, W J

    1991-08-01

    With impending federal action, and the likelihood of "copycat" legislation at the state and local levels if a federal statue is adopted, nonprofit hospitals need to ensure that they will be in compliance if a mandatory charity care bill were to become law. Such facilities should take the initiative now, by clearly articulating their charity care policies and by describing their other undercompensated or uncompensated activities that are maintained in order to benefit their communities. They should also ensure that all of their activities that could be counted as charity care or community benefit are fully documented and quantified. Financial consultants and counsel may be helpful in this process. Exempt facilities also should, of course, closely monitor the progress of the bills discussed above. Most importantly, they should continue to test their charity care and community benefit statistics on a regular basis to determine if their facilities meet the thresholds specified in the bills as they proceed through Congress.

  1. Reversal of orbital angular momentum arising from an extreme Doppler shift

    PubMed Central

    Toninelli, Ermes; Horsley, Simon A. R.; Hendry, Euan; Phillips, David B.; Padgett, Miles J.

    2018-01-01

    The linear Doppler shift is familiar as the rise and fall in pitch of a siren as it passes by. Less well known is the rotational Doppler shift, proportional to the rotation rate between source and receiver, multiplied by the angular momentum carried by the beam. In extreme cases the Doppler shift can be larger than the rest-frame frequency and for a red shift, the observed frequency then becomes “negative.” In the linear case, this effect is associated with the time reversal of the received signal, but it can be observed only with supersonic relative motion between the source and receiver. However, the rotational case is different; if the radius of rotation is smaller than the wavelength, then the velocities required to observe negative frequencies are subsonic. Using an acoustic source at ≈100 Hz we create a rotational Doppler shift larger than the laboratory-frame frequency. We observe that once the red-shifted wave passes into the “negative frequency” regime, the angular momentum associated with the sound is reversed in sign compared with that of the laboratory frame. These low-velocity laboratory realizations of extreme Doppler shifts have relevance to superoscillatory fields and offer unique opportunities to probe interactions with rotating bodies and aspects of pseudorelativistic frame translation. PMID:29581257

  2. Denitrification potential under different fertilization regimes is closely coupled with changes in the denitrifying community in a black soil.

    PubMed

    Yin, Chang; Fan, Fenliang; Song, Alin; Cui, Peiyuan; Li, Tingqiang; Liang, Yongchao

    2015-07-01

    Preferable inorganic fertilization over the last decades has led to fertility degradation of black soil in Northeast China. However, how fertilization regimes impact denitrification and its related bacterial community in this soil type is still unclear. Here, taking advantage of a suit of molecular ecological tools in combination of assaying the potential denitrification (DP), we explored the variation of activity, community structure, and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers under four different fertilization regimes, namely no fertilization control (N0M0), organic pig manure (N0M1), inorganic fertilization (N1M0), and combination of inorganic fertilizer and pig manure (N1M1). The results indicated that organic fertilization increased DP, but inorganic fertilization had no impacts. The increase of DP was mirrored by the shift of nirS denitrifiers' community structure but not by that of nirK denitrifiers'. Furthermore, the change of DP coincided with the variation of abundances of both denitrifiers. Shifts of community structure and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers were correlated with the change of soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), C:P, total phosphorus (TP), and available phosphorus (Olsen P). Our results suggest that the change of DP under these four fertilization regimes was closely related to the shift of denitrifying bacteria communities resulting from the variation of properties in the black soil tested.

  3. Lava Fountaining Discharge Regime driven by Slug-to-Churn Flow Transition. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ripepe, M.; Pioli, L.; Marchetti, E.; Ulivieri, G.

    2013-12-01

    Lava fountaining episodes at Etna volcano appear characterized by the transition between Strombolian and Hawaiian end-member eruptive styles. There is no evidence for this transition in the seismic (i.e. seismic tremor) signal. However, infrasonic records provide unprecedented evidence on this flow transition. Each eruptive episode is characterized by distinctive common trend in the amplitude, waveform and frequency content of the infrasonic wavefield, which evidences the shift from discrete, and transient, strombolian to sustained, and oscillatory, lava fountain dynamics. Large scale experiments on the dynamics of two-phase flow of basaltic magmas show how the transition between different regimes mainly depends on gas volume flow, which in turn controls pressure distribution within the conduit and also magma vesicularity. In particular, while regular large bubble bursting is associated with slug flow regime, large amplitude and low frequency column oscillations are associated with churn flow. In large pipes, transition from slug to churn flow regime is independent on conduit diameter and it is reached at high superficial gas velocity. Lava fountaining episodes at Etna can be thus interpreted as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regimes that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. Based on laboratory experiments, we calculate that transition between these two end-member explosive regimes at Etna occurs when gas superficial velocity is 76 m/s for near-the-vent stagnant magma conditions.

  4. Mercantilist Development in Russia: The Legitimacy of State Power, State Identity, and the Energy Charter Regime (1990--2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruynooghe, Daniel; Wynn, Henry P.

    This dissertation investigates the creation, adaptation, and demise of international regimes. Specifically, I ask why international regimes sometimes fail to fulfill their original purpose. Empirically, I examine the evolution and eventual failure of the Energy Charter (ECH), a multilateral regime that governs the Eurasian energy economy. Modeled after the European Steel and Coal Community, the original goal of the regime was to capitalize on economic complementarities in energy to integrate Gorbachev's reforming USSR (later Russia) with Europe and promote pan-European cooperation and peace. By 2010, integration had failed, and the regime itself had become a source of conflict. To understand this outcome, I focus on the foreign energy policy of Russia, a central state within the ECH, which actively participated in designing the regime in the 1990s but two decades later decided that it was no longer in its interest. Using data collected from interviews and archival searches during field research in Russia, Brussels, and Paris, I find that under President Yeltsin, low domestic sovereignty meant the state could not integrate key domestic players into ECH policy-making. This led Russia to conclude a bargain that it could not implement domestically. Under President Putin, high domestic sovereignty meant the state had sufficient capacity to corral these recalcitrant actors. However, the new policy that emerged compelled Russia to attempt to modify the ECH in ways that violated previously accepted norms, thereby alienating its European partners and undermining the regime. This study supports Hegemonic Stability theory which suggests that we can expect regime failure after major shifts in the distribution of power produce changes in the interests and policies of key states. I extend this finding by showing that Russian state power increased due to changes in elite conceptions about the legitimacy of state power. I demonstrate this by using over time comparisons between

  5. Community adaptations to an impending food desert in rural Appalachia, USA.

    PubMed

    Miller, Wayne C; Rogalla, Denver; Spencer, Dustin; Zia, Nida; Griffith, Brian N; Heinsberg, Haylee B

    2016-01-01

    The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) describes a food desert as an urban neighborhood or rural town without ready access to fresh, healthy, and affordable food. An estimated 2.3 million rural Americans live in food deserts. One goal of the USDA is to eliminate food deserts. However, at a time when some food deserts are being eliminated, hundreds of grocery stores are closing, causing other food deserts to arise. The literature is scarce on how a community adapts to an impending food desert. Alderson, West Virginia, USA (population 1184) rallied to face an impending food desert when the only grocery store in town closed in December 2014. This study investigated how this small rural community adapted to its oncoming food desert. A community member survey was administered to 155 Alderson families (49%) to determine how the new food desert affected family food acquisition and storage behaviors. A restaurant survey was given to the town's four restaurants to determine how the food desert affected their businesses. Sales data for a new food hub (Green Grocer) was obtained to see if this new initiative offset the negative effects of the food desert. ANOVA and t-tests were used to compare group numerical data. Two group response rates were compared by testing the equality of two proportions. Categorical data were analyzed with the χ2 or frequency distribution analysis. Group averages are reported as mean ± standard error of the mean. Significance for all analyses was set at p<0.05. Even though 86% of the population shopped at the new Green Grocer, 77% did most of their shopping at a store at least 17.7 km (11 miles) from home. The number of long-distance monthly shopping trips made after the food desert (3.3±0.4) did not change significantly (p=0.16) from the number before the food desert (2.8±0.3). Price comparisons among the Green Grocer and three distant supermarkets showed a 30% savings by traveling to distant supermarkets

  6. Time-shifted synchronization of chaotic oscillator chains without explicit coupling delays.

    PubMed

    Blakely, Jonathan N; Stahl, Mark T; Corron, Ned J

    2009-12-01

    We examine chains of unidirectionally coupled oscillators in which time-shifted synchronization occurs without explicit delays in the coupling. In numerical simulations and in an experimental system of electronic oscillators, we examine the time shift and the degree of distortion (primarily in the form of attenuation) of the waveforms of the oscillators located far from the drive oscillator. Surprisingly, under weak coupling we observe minimal attenuation in spite of a significant total time shift. In contrast, at higher coupling strengths the observed attenuation increases dramatically and approaches the value predicted by an analytically derived estimate. In this regime, we verify directly that generalized synchronization is maintained over the entire chain length despite severe attenuation. These results suggest that weak coupling generally may produce higher quality synchronization in systems for which truly identical synchronization is not possible.

  7. Bragg-scattering conversion at telecom wavelengths towards the photon counting regime.

    PubMed

    Krupa, Katarzyna; Tonello, Alessandro; Kozlov, Victor V; Couderc, Vincent; Di Bin, Philippe; Wabnitz, Stefan; Barthélémy, Alain; Labonté, Laurent; Tanzilli, Sébastien

    2012-11-19

    We experimentally study Bragg-scattering four-wave mixing in a highly nonlinear fiber at telecom wavelengths using photon counters. We explore the polarization dependence of this process with a continuous wave signal in the macroscopic and attenuated regime, with a wavelength shift of 23 nm. Our measurements of mean photon numbers per second under various pump polarization configurations agree well with the theoretical and numerical predictions based on classical models. We discuss the impact of noise under these different polarization configurations.

  8. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

    PubMed

    Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

    2010-11-17

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.

  9. Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range

    PubMed Central

    Parajka, J.; Kohnová, S.; Bálint, G.; Barbuc, M.; Borga, M.; Claps, P.; Cheval, S.; Dumitrescu, A.; Gaume, E.; Hlavčová, K.; Merz, R.; Pfaundler, M.; Stancalie, G.; Szolgay, J.; Blöschl, G.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

  10. Electron plasma wave filamentation in the kinetic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, Pavel; Rose, Harvey; Silantyev, Denis

    2016-10-01

    We consider nonlinear electron plasma wave (EPW) dynamics in the kinetic wavenumber regime, 0.25 < kλD < 0.45 , which is typical for current high temperature laser-plasma interaction experiments, where k is the EPW wavenumber and λD is the electron Debye length. In this kinetic regime, EPW frequency reduction due to electron trapping may dominate the ponderomotive frequency shift. Previous 3D PIC simulations showed that the trapped electron EPW filamentation instability can saturate stimulated Raman backscatter by reducing the EPWs coherence but multidimensional Vlasov simulations [1] are needed to address that saturation in details. We performed nonlinear, non-equilibrium 2D Vlasov simulations to study the EPW filamentation. The initial conditions are created either by external forcing or by constructing the appropriate 1D travelling Bernstein-Greene-Kruskal (BGK) mode. Transverse perturbations of any of these initial conditions grow with time eventually producing strongly nonlinear filamentation followed by plasma turbulence. We compared these simulations with the theoretical results on growth rates of the transverse instability BGK mode showing the satisfactory agreement. Supported by the New Mexico Consortium and NSF DMS-1412140.

  11. Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Carolyn A; Armitage, Anna R

    2018-01-01

    Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010-2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

  12. Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment

    PubMed Central

    Armitage, Anna R.

    2018-01-01

    Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010–2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

  13. Reversal of orbital angular momentum arising from an extreme Doppler shift.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Graham M; Toninelli, Ermes; Horsley, Simon A R; Spalding, Gabriel C; Hendry, Euan; Phillips, David B; Padgett, Miles J

    2018-04-10

    The linear Doppler shift is familiar as the rise and fall in pitch of a siren as it passes by. Less well known is the rotational Doppler shift, proportional to the rotation rate between source and receiver, multiplied by the angular momentum carried by the beam. In extreme cases the Doppler shift can be larger than the rest-frame frequency and for a red shift, the observed frequency then becomes "negative." In the linear case, this effect is associated with the time reversal of the received signal, but it can be observed only with supersonic relative motion between the source and receiver. However, the rotational case is different; if the radius of rotation is smaller than the wavelength, then the velocities required to observe negative frequencies are subsonic. Using an acoustic source at [Formula: see text]100 Hz we create a rotational Doppler shift larger than the laboratory-frame frequency. We observe that once the red-shifted wave passes into the "negative frequency" regime, the angular momentum associated with the sound is reversed in sign compared with that of the laboratory frame. These low-velocity laboratory realizations of extreme Doppler shifts have relevance to superoscillatory fields and offer unique opportunities to probe interactions with rotating bodies and aspects of pseudorelativistic frame translation. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  14. Generation of straight-line shifting bright-dark soliton trains with a wide dip in the symmetric center or dark solitons in optical fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, Xianqiong; Yao, Na; Sheng, Jia'nan; Cheng, Ke

    2018-02-01

    Nonlinear evolutions of dark soliton pulses with initially constant frequency chirps are investigated numerically for different soliton orders and chirp parameters in different dispersion regimes of optical fibers. The results show interestingly that, in the normal dispersion regime, the evolution properties remain unchanged apart from their straight-line shifts of the temporal trajectories compared with the chirp-free case. While in the anomalous dispersion regime, the dark solitons can evolve to bright-dark soliton trains with a wide black soliton in the symmetric center. The longer the distance, the more the pulse number. The larger the soliton order, the more the pulse number at the same distance. Similarly, straight-line shift of the temporal trajectory of the bright-dark soliton trains will also appear. The shifting amount and direction depend on the absolute value and the sign of the chirp parameter, respectively. This result inspires people to generate bright-dark soliton trains by using ordinary passive optical fibers instead of fiber lasers. Besides, this work also provides us an alternative approach to guide the formed solitons or soliton trains to move their temporal trajectories along straight lines.

  15. Sagebrush steppe and pinyon-juniper ecosystems: effects of changing fire regimes, increased fuel loads, and invasive species

    Treesearch

    Jeanne C. Chambers; E. Durant McArthur; Steven B. Monson; Susan E. Meyer; Nancy L. Shaw; Robin J. Tausch; Robert R. Blank; Steve Bunting; Richard R. Miller; Mike Pellant; Bruce A. Roundy; Scott C. Walker; Alison Whittaker

    2005-01-01

    Pinyon-juniper woodlands and Wyoming big sagebrush ecosystems have undergone major changes in vegetation structure and composition since settlement by European Americans. These changes are resulting in dramatic shifts in fire frequency, size and severity. Effective management of these systems has been hindered by lack of information on: (1) presettlement fire regimes...

  16. Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Contribution of Perennial Bunchgrasses in Altering Fire Regimes in the Great Basin

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The historic fire return interval in Wyoming sagebrush ecosystems has been estimated in the hundreds of years; however, the current fire regime has shifted to short fire return intervals with some areas burning six times in the past 60 years. Invasive annual grasses (e.g. Bromus tectorum) are freque...

  17. Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

    2011-01-01

    The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

  18. Adaptive gait responses to awareness of an impending slip during treadmill walking.

    PubMed

    Yang, Feng; Kim, JaeEun; Munoz, Jose

    2016-10-01

    The awareness of potential slip risk has been shown to cause protective changes to human gait during overground walking. It remains unknown if such adaptations to walking pattern also exist when ambulating on a treadmill. This study sought to determine whether and to what extent individuals, when being aware of a potential slip risk during treadmill walking, could adjust their gait pattern to improve their dynamic stability against backward balance loss in response to the impending slip hazard. Fifty-four healthy young subjects (age: 23.9±4.7years) participated in this study. Subjects' gait pattern was measured under two conditions: walking on a treadmill without (or normal walking) and with (or aware walking) the awareness of the potential slip perturbation. During both walking conditions, subjects' full body kinematics were gathered by using a motion capture system. Spatial gait parameters and the dynamic gait stability against backward balance were compared between the two walking conditions. The results revealed that subjects proactively adopted a "cautious gait" during aware walking compared with the normal walking. The cautious gait, which was achieved by taking a shorter step and a more flatfoot landing, positioned the body center of mass closer to the base of support, improving participants' dynamic stability and increasing their resistance against a possible slip-related fall. The finding from this study could provide insights into the dynamic stability control when individuals anticipate potential slip risk during treadmill walking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  20. From Drug Safety to Drug Security: A Contemporary Shift in the Policing of Health.

    PubMed

    Hornberger, Julia

    2018-01-29

    The counterfeiting of medication is increasingly seen as a major threat to health, especially in the light of both the everyday reliance on and a broadening of world-wide access to pharmaceuticals. Exaggerated or real, this threat has inaugurated, this article argues, a shift from a drug safety regime to a drug security regime that governs the flow of pharmaceuticals and brings together markets, police, and health actors in new ways. This entails a shift from soft disciplinary means aimed at incremental and continued inclusion of defaulters, to one of drastically sovereign measures of exclusion and banishment aimed at fake goods and the people associated with them, in the name of health. Through a multi-sited ethnographic study, this article shows how such new drug security efforts play themselves out especially in (South) Africa, highlighting a modus operandi of spectacular performativity and of working through suspicion and association rather than factuality, producing value less so for those in need of health than for a petty security industry itself. © 2018 by the American Anthropological Association.

  1. Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology.

    PubMed

    Krebs, Patrik; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Talbot, Lee M; Conedera, Marco

    2010-06-01

    "Fire regime" has become, in recent decades, a key concept in many scientific domains. In spite of its wide spread use, the concept still lacks a clear and wide established definition. Many believe that it was first discussed in a famous report on national park management in the United States, and that it may be simply defined as a selection of a few measurable parameters that summarize the fire occurrence patterns in an area. This view has been uncritically perpetuated in the scientific community in the last decades. In this paper we attempt a historical reconstruction of the origin, the evolution and the current meaning of "fire regime" as a concept. Its roots go back to the 19th century in France and to the first half of the 20th century in French African colonies. The "fire regime" concept took time to evolve and pass from French into English usage and thus to the whole scientific community. This coincided with a paradigm shift in the early 1960s in the United States, where a favourable cultural, social and scientific climate led to the natural role of fires as a major disturbance in ecosystem dynamics becoming fully acknowledged. Today the concept of "fire regime" refers to a collection of several fire-related parameters that may be organized, assembled and used in different ways according to the needs of the users. A structure for the most relevant categories of parameters is proposed, aiming to contribute to a unified concept of "fire regime" that can reconcile the physical nature of fire with the socio-ecological context within which it occurs.

  2. On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babin, A.; Mahalov, A.; Nicolaenko, B.; Zhou, Y.

    1997-01-01

    Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

  3. Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Tercek, Michael T.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

  4. VEGETATION MEDIATED THE IMPACTS OF POSTGLACIAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON FIRE REGIMES IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL BROOKS RANGE, ALASKA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Higuera, P E; Brubaker, L B; Anderson, P M

    We examine direct and indirect impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes in the southcentral Brooks Range, Alaska, using four lake-sediment records and existing paleoclimate interpretations. New techniques are introduced to identify charcoal peaks semi-objectively and detect statistical differences in fire regimes. Peaks in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) provide estimates of fire return intervals (FRIs) which are compared between vegetation zones described by fossil pollen and stomata. Climatic warming from ca 15-9 ka BP (calendar years before CE 1950) coincides with shifts in vegetation from herb tundra to shrub tundra to deciduous woodlands, all novel species assemblages relative tomore » modern vegetation. Two sites cover this period and show increased CHARs and decreased FRIs with the transition from herb to shrub tundra ca 13.3-14.3 ka BP. Short FRIs in the Betula-dominated shrub tundra (mean [m] FRI 144 yr; 95% CI 119-170) primarily reflect the effects of flammable, continuous fuels on the fire regime. FRIs increased significantly with the transition to Populus-dominated deciduous woodlands ca 10.5 ka BP (mFRI 251 yr [158-352]), despite evidence of warmer- and drier-than-present summers. We attribute reduced fire activity under these conditions to low flammability of deciduous fuels. Three sites record the mid to late Holocene, when cooler and moister conditions allowed Picea glauca forest-tundra and P. mariana boreal forests to establish ca 8 and 5.5 ka BP. Forest-tundra FRIs did not differ significantly from the previous period (mFRIs range from 131-238 yr), but FRIs decreased with the transition to boreal forest (mFRI 145 yr [129-163]). Overall, fire-regime shifts in the study area showed greater correspondence with vegetation characteristics than with inferred climate, and we conclude that vegetation mediated the impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes by modifying landscape flammability. Our findings emphasize

  5. A critique of the historical-fire-regime concept in conservation.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Johanna; Kobziar, Leda; Rose, Elizabeth White; Cropper, Wendell

    2017-10-01

    Prescribed fire is widely accepted as a conservation tool because fire is essential to the maintenance of native biodiversity in many terrestrial communities. Approaches to this land-management technique vary greatly among continents, and sharing knowledge internationally can inform application of prescribed fire worldwide. In North America, decisions about how and when to apply prescribed fire are typically based on the historical-fire-regime concept (HFRC), which holds that replicating the pattern of fires ignited by lightning or preindustrial humans best promotes native species in fire-prone regions. The HFRC rests on 3 assumptions: it is possible to infer historical fire regimes accurately; fire-suppressed communities are ecologically degraded; and reinstating historical fire regimes is the best course of action despite the global shift toward novel abiotic and biotic conditions. We examined the underpinnings of these assumptions by conducting a literature review on the use of historical fire regimes to inform the application of prescribed fire. We found that the practice of inferring historical fire regimes for entire regions or ecosystems often entails substantial uncertainty and can yield equivocal results; ecological outcomes of fire suppression are complex and may not equate to degradation, depending on the ecosystem and context; and habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and other modern factors can interact with fire to produce novel and in some cases negative ecological outcomes. It is therefore unlikely that all 3 assumptions will be fully upheld for any landscape in which prescribed fire is being applied. Although the HFRC is a valuable starting point, it should not be viewed as the sole basis for developing prescribed fire programs. Rather, fire prescriptions should also account for other specific, measurable ecological parameters on a case-by-case basis. To best achieve conservation goals, researchers should seek to understand contemporary fire

  6. Channel Acquisition for Massive MIMO-OFDM With Adjustable Phase Shift Pilots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    You, Li; Gao, Xiqi; Swindlehurst, A. Lee; Zhong, Wen

    2016-03-01

    We propose adjustable phase shift pilots (APSPs) for channel acquisition in wideband massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems employing orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to reduce the pilot overhead. Based on a physically motivated channel model, we first establish a relationship between channel space-frequency correlations and the channel power angle-delay spectrum in the massive antenna array regime, which reveals the channel sparsity in massive MIMO-OFDM. With this channel model, we then investigate channel acquisition, including channel estimation and channel prediction, for massive MIMO-OFDM with APSPs. We show that channel acquisition performance in terms of sum mean square error can be minimized if the user terminals' channel power distributions in the angle-delay domain can be made non-overlapping with proper phase shift scheduling. A simplified pilot phase shift scheduling algorithm is developed based on this optimal channel acquisition condition. The performance of APSPs is investigated for both one symbol and multiple symbol data models. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed APSP approach can provide substantial performance gains in terms of achievable spectral efficiency over the conventional phase shift orthogonal pilot approach in typical mobility scenarios.

  7. Coherent detection of THz-induced sideband emission from excitons in the nonperturbative regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, K.; Otobe, T.; Mochizuki, T.; Kim, C.; Yoshita, M.; Tanaka, K.; Akiyama, H.; Pfeiffer, L. N.; West, K. W.; Hirori, H.

    2018-04-01

    Strong interaction of a terahertz (THz) wave with excitons induces nonperturbative optical effects such as Rabi splitting and high-order sideband generation. Here, we investigated coherent properties of THz-induced sideband emissions from GaAs/AlGaAs multiquantum wells. With increasing THz electric field, optical susceptibility of the THz-dressed exciton shows a redshift with spectral broadening and extraordinary phase shift. This implies that the field ionization of the 1 s exciton modifies the THz-dressed exciton in the nonperturbative regime.

  8. Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents an examination of precipitation amounts in Pakistan. For this purpose, the annual precipitation and the annual number of precipitation days have been calculated, and a study aimed at investigating precipitation intensity and decadal changes was conducted. Precipitation trends have been calculated using a simple linear regression method and Kendall's tau-based test. To assess stability and differences, a 10-year span was determined for each precipitation region for the period of 1951-2010. This study focused on the three CLINO (Climatological Normal) periods, namely 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010 (the latest global standard normal period). Results confirm the gradual increase of annual precipitation in southwestern coastal areas of Pakistan and Cholistan desert. With regard to annual number of precipitation days, in the central part of the country negative trends were evident for wet days (with precipitation ≧ 0.1 mm), while the number of rainy days (with precipitation ≧ 1 mm) displayed a prominent positive trend. The series of the precipitation intensity gives evidence of a minor decrease in the Baluchistan Plateau, sub-Himalayas, and Potwar Plateau during the study period. Examination of secular trends evidenced that the Murree hills, the upper Indus plain, and the northwestern Baluchistan plateau have had shifts in their precipitation regime towards drier conditions, while the central plain, the northwestern mountains, and the southern part of the country are shifting in their precipitation regime towards wetter conditions. Description among the means of precipitation amounts suggests that "normal" precipitation data for various national projects should be calculated for the last 30 years.

  9. A Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Coupled Riparian Vegetation-Geomorphic Response to Altered Flow Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manners, R.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    The ecogeomorphic response of riparian ecosystems to a change in hydrologic properties is difficult to predict because of the interactions and feedbacks among plants, water, and sediment. Most riparian models of community dynamics assume a static channel, yet geomorphic processes strongly control the establishment and survival of riparian vegetation. Using a combination of approaches that includes empirical relationships and hydrodynamic models, we model the coupled vegetation-topographic response of three cross-sections on the Yampa and Green Rivers in Dinosaur National Monument, to a shift in the flow regime. The locations represent the variable geomorphology and vegetation composition of these canyon-bound rivers. We account for the inundation and hydraulic properties of vegetation plots surveyed over three years within International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) Fastmech, equipped with a vegetation module that accounts for flexible stems and plant reconfiguration. The presence of functional groupings of plants, or those plants that respond similarly to environmental factors such as water availability and disturbance are determined from flow response curves developed for the Yampa River. Using field measurements of vegetation morphology, distance from the channel centerline, and dominant particle size and modeled inundation properties we develop an empirical relationship between these variables and topographic change. We evaluate vegetation and channel form changes over decadal timescales, allowing for the integration of processes over time. From our analyses, we identify thresholds in the flow regime that alter the distribution of plants and reduce geomorphic complexity, predominately through side-channel and backwater infilling. Simplification of some processes (e.g., empirically-derived sedimentation) and detailed treatment of others (e.g., plant-flow interactions) allows us to model the coupled dynamics of riparian ecosystems and evaluate the impact of

  10. Neoclassical quasilinear theory in the superbanana plateau regime and banana kinetics in tokamaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaing, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Neoclassical quasilinear transport theory, which is part of a more general theory that unifies neoclassical and quasilinear theories, is extended to the superbanana plateau regime for low frequency (of the order of the drift frequency) electrostatic fluctuations. The physics mechanism that is responsible for the transport losses in this regime is the superbanana plateau resonance. Besides the usual magnetic drifts, Doppler shifted mode frequency also contributes to the resonance condition. Because the characteristic frequency involved in the resonance is of the order of the drift frequency, which is lower than either the bounce or the transit frequency of the particles, the transport losses are higher than the losses calculated in the conventional quasilinear theory. The important effects of the finite banana width, i.e., banana kinetics, are included and are found to reduce the transport losses for short wavelength modes. The implications on the energetic alpha particle energy loss are discussed.

  11. Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2013-03-26

    Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

  12. Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2013-01-01

    Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. PMID:23479648

  13. Tuning the Quantum Efficiency of Random Lasers - Intrinsic Stokes-Shift and Gain

    PubMed Central

    Lubatsch, Andreas; Frank, Regine

    2015-01-01

    We report the theoretical analysis for tuning the quantum efficiency of solid state random lasers. Vollhardt-Wölfle theory of photonic transport in disordered non-conserving and open random media, is coupled to lasing dynamics and solved positionally dependent. The interplay of non-linearity and homogeneous non-radiative frequency conversion by means of a Stokes-shift leads to a reduction of the quantum efficiency of the random laser. At the threshold a strong decrease of the spot-size in the stationary state is found due to the increase of non-radiative losses. The coherently emitted photon number per unit of modal surface is also strongly reduced. This result allows for the conclusion that Stokes-shifts are not sufficient to explain confined and extended mode regimes. PMID:26593237

  14. Tuning the Quantum Efficiency of Random Lasers - Intrinsic Stokes-Shift and Gain.

    PubMed

    Lubatsch, Andreas; Frank, Regine

    2015-11-23

    We report the theoretical analysis for tuning the quantum efficiency of solid state random lasers. Vollhardt-Wölfle theory of photonic transport in disordered non-conserving and open random media, is coupled to lasing dynamics and solved positionally dependent. The interplay of non-linearity and homogeneous non-radiative frequency conversion by means of a Stokes-shift leads to a reduction of the quantum efficiency of the random laser. At the threshold a strong decrease of the spot-size in the stationary state is found due to the increase of non-radiative losses. The coherently emitted photon number per unit of modal surface is also strongly reduced. This result allows for the conclusion that Stokes-shifts are not sufficient to explain confined and extended mode regimes.

  15. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

  16. Experimentally altered rainfall regimes and host root traits affect grassland arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities.

    PubMed

    Deveautour, Coline; Donn, Suzanne; Power, Sally A; Bennett, Alison E; Powell, Jeff R

    2018-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict changes in rainfall regimes. These changes are expected to affect plants via effects on the expression of root traits associated with water and nutrient uptake. Associated microorganisms may also respond to these new precipitation regimes, either directly in response to changes in the soil environment or indirectly in response to altered root trait expression. We characterized arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal communities in an Australian grassland exposed to experimentally altered rainfall regimes. We used Illumina sequencing to assess the responses of AM fungal communities associated with four plant species sampled in different watering treatments and evaluated the extent to which shifts were associated with changes in root traits. We observed that altered rainfall regimes affected the composition but not the richness of the AM fungal communities, and we found distinctive communities in the increased rainfall treatment. We found no evidence of altered rainfall regime effects via changes in host physiology because none of the studied traits were affected by changes in rainfall. However, specific root length was observed to correlate with AM fungal richness, while concentrations of phosphorus and calcium in root tissue and the proportion of root length allocated to fine roots were correlated to community composition. Our study provides evidence that climate change and its effects on rainfall may influence AM fungal community assembly, as do plant traits related to plant nutrition and water uptake. We did not find evidence that host responses to altered rainfall drive AM fungal community assembly in this grassland ecosystem. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Negotiating authority: a comparative study of reform in medical training regimes.

    PubMed

    Wallenburg, Iris; Helderman, Jan-Kees; de Bont, Antoinette; Scheele, Fedde; Meurs, Pauline

    2012-06-01

    Recently the medical profession has faced increased outside pressure to reform postgraduate medical training programs to better equip young doctors for changing health care needs and public expectations. In this article we explore the impact of reform on professional self-governance by conducting a comparative historical-institutional analysis of postgraduate medical training reform in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. In both countries the medical training regime has shifted from professional self-regulation to coregulation. Yet there are notable differences in each country that cannot be explained solely by diverging institutional contexts. They also result from the strategic actions by the actors involved. Based on an assessment of the recent literature on institutional transformation, this article shows how strategic actions set negotiating authority processes into motion, producing new and sometimes surprising institutional arrangements that can have profound effects on the distribution and allocation of authority in the medical training regime. It stresses the need to study the interactions among political context, the properties of institutions, and negotiating authority processes, as they are crucially important to understanding institutional transformation.

  18. Comparison of the anaerobic digestion at the mesophilic and thermophilic temperature regime of organic wastes from the agribusiness.

    PubMed

    Almeida Streitwieser, Daniela

    2017-10-01

    An overall kinetic power law model has been successfully applied to study the anaerobic digestion of agricultural wastes. In this comparative kinetic study feed composition, organic load rate, residence time and process temperature have been systematically varied in an automated semi-continuous fermentation system to obtain the dependency of the rate of degradation as biogas production on the organic load rate and temperature. The results show that the overall reaction order depend only on the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) at values between 3.6 and 3.7. The Arrhenius approach shows a shift in the rate determining step between the mesophilic and thermophilic temperature regimes. The activation energy at the temperature insensitive mesophilic regime is very small at 8.9 (kJ/mole), while the activation energy at the temperature sensitive thermophilic regime lies around 117 (kJ/mole). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

    Treesearch

    Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

    2015-01-01

    The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

  20. Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

    2017-10-01

    This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

  1. Effects of flow regime on benthic algae and macroinvertebrates - A comparison between regulated and unregulated rivers.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Susanne C; Petrin, Zlatko

    2017-02-01

    Natural fluctuations in flow are important for maintaining the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems. However, the flow regime of many rivers has been modified. We assessed the impact of water chemistry, habitat and streamflow characteristics on macroinvertebrates and benthic algae, comparing 20 regulated with 20 unregulated sites. Flow regime, calculated from daily averaged discharge over the five years preceding sampling, was generally more stable at regulated sites, with higher relative discharges in winter, lower relative discharges in spring and smaller differences between upper and lower percentiles. However, no consistent differences in benthic algal or macroinvertebrate structural and functional traits occurred between regulated and unregulated sites. When regulated and unregulated sites were pooled, overall flow regime, calculated as principal components of discharge characteristics over the five years preceding sampling, affected macroinvertebrate species assemblages, but not indices used for ecosystem status assessment or functional feeding groups. This indicates that, while species identity shifted with changing flow regime, the exchanged taxa had similar feeding habits. In contrast to macroinvertebrates, overall flow regime did not affect benthic algae. Our results indicate that overall flow regime affected the species pool of macroinvertebrates from which recolonization after extreme events may occur, but not of benthic algae. When individual components of flow regime were analyzed separately, high June (i.e. three months before sampling) flow maxima were associated with low benthic algal taxon richness, presumably due to scouring. Macroinvertebrate taxon richness decreased with lower relative minimum discharges, presumably due to temporary drying of parts of the riverbed. However, recolonization after such extreme events presumably is fast. Generally, macroinvertebrate and benthic algal assemblages were more closely related to water physico

  2. Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using

  3. Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John

    2014-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

  4. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  5. Accuracy and precision of protein-ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations.

    PubMed

    Markin, Craig J; Spyracopoulos, Leo

    2012-12-01

    NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein-ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K ( D )) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K ( D ) value of a 1:1 protein-ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125-138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of (1)H-(15)N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein-ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k ( off )). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k ( off ) ~ 3,000 s(-1) in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k ( off ) from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k ( off ) values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s(-1). The validity of line shape analysis for k ( off ) values approaching intermediate exchange (~100 s(-1)), may be facilitated by more accurate K ( D ) measurements

  6. Emergent Hydrological Regimes in Amazonia Determine Vegetation Productivity and Structure.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlström, A.; Canadell, J.; Schurgers, G.; Berry, J. A.; Guan, K.; Jackson, R. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon rain forest has a disproportionate significance for global CO2 storage and biodiversity. Earth system models (ESMs) that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in simulations in Amazonia. Here we show that evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary productivity (GPP) and above ground biomass in both models and empirical data align on an emergent hydrologically determined relationship that describes a functional relationship with annual precipitation (P). The physical relationship describes the potential for plant productivity and has a breakpoint at 2000 mm annual precipitation, where the system transitions between water and radiation limitation of annual ET. While ESM GPP is generally underestimated due to a low-bias in their internally generated P, their response to annual precipitation generally matches empirical data. It is different for biomass: ESMs show some ability in capturing biomass levels in the energy-limited wet hydrological regime above 2000 mm annual precipitation but they do not fully capture the biomass structure tipping point found in empirical data at the hydrological regime breakpoint that coincide with the forest-savanna transition. This discrepancy is likely due to the relatively simple representation of disturbances, primarily fires, and vegetation dynamics found in ESMs, and implies that ESMs likely overestimate the resilience to a potential future drying of the Amazon. Future elevated CO2 may increase plant water use efficiency and shift GPP upwards, but it will not affect the breakpoint between the regimes or the susceptibility of the forest which are both determined by precipitation and its role in determining the hydrological regime. This analysis reconciles and explains the findings of many studies on the Amazon. Our results suggests that future Amazonian biomass is governed by changes in precipitation, vegetation dynamics and disturbances, none of which are well predicted and represented by ESMs

  7. Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

    2015-12-01

    Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime

  8. Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

    2017-12-01

    Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

  9. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  10. Longer growing seasons shift grassland vegetation towards more-productive species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fridley, Jason D.; Lynn, Josh S.; Grime, J. P.; Askew, A. P.

    2016-09-01

    Despite advances in plant functional ecology that provide a framework for predicting the responses of vegetation to environmental change, links between plant functional strategies and elevated temperatures are poorly understood. Here, we analyse the response of a species-rich grassland in northern England to two decades of temperature and rainfall manipulations in the context of the functional attributes of 21 coexisting species that represent a large array of resource-use strategies. Three principal traits, including body size (canopy height), tissue investment (leaf construction cost), and seed size, varied independently across species and reflect tradeoffs associated with competitiveness, stress tolerance, and colonization ability. Unlike past studies, our results reveal a strong association between functional traits and temperature regime; species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, which has come at the expense of those species of high tissue investment. This trait-warming association was three times higher in deep soils, suggesting species shifts have been strongly mediated by competition. In contrast, vegetation shifts from rainfall manipulations have been associated only with tissue investment. Functional shifts towards faster growing species in response to warming may be responsible for a marginal increase in productivity in a system that was assumed to be nutrient-limited.

  11. Triggers and maintenance of multiple shifts in the state of a natural community

    PubMed Central

    Schmitt, Russell J.; Holbrook, Sally J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological communities can undergo sudden and dramatic shifts between alternative persistent community states. Both ecological prediction and natural resource management rely on understanding the mechanisms that trigger such shifts and maintain each state. Differentiating between potential mechanisms is difficult, however, because shifts are often recognized only in hindsight and many occur on such large spatial scales that manipulative experiments to test their causes are difficult or impossible. Here we use an approach that focuses first on identifying changes in environmental factors that could have triggered a given state change, and second on examining whether these changes were sustained (and thus potentially maintained the new state) or transitory (explaining the shift but not its persistence). We use this approach to evaluate a community shift in which a benthic marine species of filter feeding sea cucumber (Pachythyone rubra) suddenly came to dominate subtidal rocky reefs that had previously supported high abundances of macroalgae, persisted for more than a decade, then abruptly declined. We found that a sustained period without large wave events coincided with the shift to sea cucumber dominance, but that the sea cucumbers persisted even after the end of this low wave period, indicating that different mechanisms maintained the new community. Additionally, the period of sea cucumber dominance occurred when their predators were rare, and increases in the abundance of these predators coincided with the end of sea cucumber dominance. These results underscore the complex nature of regime shifts and illustrate that focusing separately on the causes and maintenance of state change can be a productive first step for analyzing these shifts in a range of systems. PMID:20526781

  12. Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

  13. Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-02-01

    Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

  14. The Novel Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation Technique and the Coherent Doppler Lidar System Validation Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.

    2006-01-01

    The signal processing aspect of a 2-m wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system under development at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia is investigated in this paper. The lidar system is named VALIDAR (validation lidar) and its signal processing program estimates and displays various wind parameters in real-time as data acquisition occurs. The goal is to improve the quality of the current estimates such as power, Doppler shift, wind speed, and wind direction, especially in low signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) regime. A novel Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation Technique (NADSET) is developed on such behalf and its performance is analyzed using the wind data acquired over a long period of time by VALIDAR. The quality of Doppler shift and power estimations by conventional Fourier-transform-based spectrum estimation methods deteriorates rapidly as SNR decreases. NADSET compensates such deterioration in the quality of wind parameter estimates by adaptively utilizing the statistics of Doppler shift estimate in a strong SNR range and identifying sporadic range bins where good Doppler shift estimates are found. The authenticity of NADSET is established by comparing the trend of wind parameters with and without NADSET applied to the long-period lidar return data.

  15. Detrimental effects of a novel flow regime on the functional trajectory of an aquatic invertebrate metacommunity.

    PubMed

    Ruhi, Albert; Dong, Xiaoli; McDaniel, Courtney H; Batzer, Darold P; Sabo, John L

    2018-04-17

    Novel flow regimes resulting from dam operations and overallocation of freshwater resources are an emerging consequence of global change. Yet, anticipating how freshwater biodiversity will respond to surging flow regime alteration requires overcoming two challenges in environmental flow science: shifting from local to riverscape-level understanding of biodiversity dynamics, and from static to time-varying characterizations of the flow regime. Here, we used time-series methods (wavelets and multivariate autoregressive models) to quantify flow-regime alteration and to link time-varying flow regimes to the dynamics of multiple local communities potentially connected by dispersal (i.e., a metacommunity). We studied the Chattahoochee River below Buford dam (Georgia, U.S.A.), and asked how flow regime alteration by a large hydropower dam may control the long-term functional trajectory of the downstream invertebrate metacommunity. We found that seasonal variation in hydropeaking synchronized temporal fluctuations in trait abundance among the flow-altered sites. Three biological trait states describing adaptation to fast flows benefitted from flow management for hydropower, but did not compensate for declines in 16 "loser" traits. Accordingly, metacommunity-wide functional diversity responded negatively to hydropeaking intensity, and stochastic simulations showed that the risk of functional diversity collapse within the next 4 years would decrease by 17% if hydropeaking was ameliorated, or by 9% if it was applied every other season. Finally, an analysis of 97 reference and 23 dam-affected river sites across the U.S. Southeast suggested that flow variation at extraneous, human-relevant scales (12-hr, 24-hr, 1-week) is relatively common in rivers affected by hydropower dams. This study advances the notion that novel flow regimes are widespread, and simplify the functional structure of riverine communities by filtering out taxa with nonadaptive traits and by spatially

  16. Bias voltage dependence of the electron spin depolarization in quantum wires in the quantum Hall regime detected by the resistively detected NMR

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chida, K.; Yamauchi, Y.; Arakawa, T.

    2013-12-04

    We performed the resistively-detected nuclear magnetic resonance (RDNMR) to study the electron spin polarization in the non-equilibrium quantum Hall regime. By measuring the Knight shift, we derive source-drain bias voltage dependence of the electron spin polarization in quantum wires. The electron spin polarization shows minimum value around the threshold voltage of the dynamic nuclear polarization.

  17. Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

    2017-09-01

    Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This

  18. Modeling the effects of potential salinity shifts on the recovery of striped bass in the Savannah River estuary, Georgia-South Carolina, United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reinert, T.R.; Peterson, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (???1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, "first-order" attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  19. The New English Quality Assurance Regime

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2011-01-01

    England is developing a new quality assurance regime that will come into effect in October 2011. A new funding regime will operate from the following year, together with new rules to ease the participation of private higher education providers. This article describes and analyses the new quality and funding regimes. It argues that the greater…

  20. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into

  1. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

    2017-02-01

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

  2. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    DOE PAGES

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; ...

    2017-02-07

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into

  3. Regimes of Coriolis-Centrifugal Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, Susanne; Aurnou, Jonathan M.

    2018-05-01

    Centrifugal buoyancy affects all rotating turbulent convection phenomena, but is conventionally ignored in rotating convection studies. Here, we include centrifugal buoyancy to investigate what we call Coriolis-centrifugal convection (C3 ), characterizing two so far unexplored regimes, one where the flow is in quasicyclostrophic balance (QC regime) and another where the flow is in a triple balance between pressure gradient, Coriolis and centrifugal buoyancy forces (CC regime). The transition to centrifugally dominated dynamics occurs when the Froude number Fr equals the radius-to-height aspect ratio γ . Hence, turbulent convection experiments with small γ may encounter centrifugal effects at lower Fr than traditionally expected. Further, we show analytically that the direct effect of centrifugal buoyancy yields a reduction of the Nusselt number Nu. However, indirectly, it can cause a simultaneous increase of the viscous dissipation and thereby Nu through a change of the flow morphology. These direct and indirect effects yield a net Nu suppression in the CC regime and a net Nu enhancement in the QC regime. In addition, we demonstrate that C3 may provide a simplified, yet self-consistent, model system for tornadoes, hurricanes, and typhoons.

  4. Regimes of Coriolis-Centrifugal Convection.

    PubMed

    Horn, Susanne; Aurnou, Jonathan M

    2018-05-18

    Centrifugal buoyancy affects all rotating turbulent convection phenomena, but is conventionally ignored in rotating convection studies. Here, we include centrifugal buoyancy to investigate what we call Coriolis-centrifugal convection (C^{3}), characterizing two so far unexplored regimes, one where the flow is in quasicyclostrophic balance (QC regime) and another where the flow is in a triple balance between pressure gradient, Coriolis and centrifugal buoyancy forces (CC regime). The transition to centrifugally dominated dynamics occurs when the Froude number Fr equals the radius-to-height aspect ratio γ. Hence, turbulent convection experiments with small γ may encounter centrifugal effects at lower Fr than traditionally expected. Further, we show analytically that the direct effect of centrifugal buoyancy yields a reduction of the Nusselt number Nu. However, indirectly, it can cause a simultaneous increase of the viscous dissipation and thereby Nu through a change of the flow morphology. These direct and indirect effects yield a net Nu suppression in the CC regime and a net Nu enhancement in the QC regime. In addition, we demonstrate that C^{3} may provide a simplified, yet self-consistent, model system for tornadoes, hurricanes, and typhoons.

  5. Characteristics of Whipple Shield Performance in the Shatter Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ryan, Shannon; Bjorkman, Michael; Christiansen, Eric L.

    2009-01-01

    Between the onset of projectile fragmentation and the assumption of rear wall failure due to an impulsive load, multi-wall ballistic limit equations are linearly interpolated to provide reasonable yet conservative predictions of perforation thresholds with conveniently simple mathematics. Although low velocity and hypervelocity regime predictions are based on analytical expressions, there is no such scientific foundation for predictions in the intermediate (or shatter) regime. As the debris flux in low earth orbit (LEO) becomes increasingly dominated by manmade pollution, the profile of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk shifts continually towards lower velocities. For the International Space Station (ISS), encounter velocities below 7 km/s now constitute approximately 50% of the penetration risk. Considering that the transition velocity from shatter to hypervelocity impact regimes described by common ballistic limit equations (e.g. new non-optimum Whipple shield equation [1]) occurs at 7 km/s, 50% of station risk is now calculated based on failure limit equations with little analytical foundation. To investigate projectile and shield behavior for impact conditions leading to projectile fragmentation and melt, a series of hypervelocity impact tests have been performed on aluminum Whipple shields. In the experiments projectile diameter, bumper thickness, and shield spacing were kept constant, while rear wall thickness was adjusted to determine spallation and perforation limits at various impact velocities and angles. The results, shown in Figure 1 for normal and 45 impacts, demonstrated behavior that was not sufficiently described by the simplified linear interpolation of the NNO equation (also shown in Figure 1). Hopkins et al. [2] investigated the performance of a nominally-identical aluminum Whipple shield, identifying the effects of phase change in the shatter regime. The results (conceptually represented in Figure 2) were found to agree well with

  6. Professional Education: Some New Directions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schein, Edgar H.; Kommers, Diane W.

    This is a plea for planning for impending changes in professional education. The author analyzes new features of professional practice and shifting expectations of professional students and then undertakes a perceptive analysis of the anatomy of change itself. (MJM)

  7. Evidence of tree species' range shifts in a complex landscape.

    PubMed

    Monleon, Vicente J; Lintz, Heather E

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species' distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.

  8. Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Monleon, Vicente J.; Lintz, Heather E.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees (95% confidence interval from 0.096 to 0.144°C). The extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change. PMID:25634090

  9. Measurements of the intrinsic quantum efficiency and absorption length of tetraphenyl butadiene thin films in the vacuum ultraviolet regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benson, Christopher; Gann, Gabriel Orebi; Gehman, Victor

    2018-04-01

    A key enabling technology for many liquid noble gas (LNG) detectors is the use of the common wavelength shifting medium tetraphenyl butadiene (TPB). TPB thin films are used to shift ultraviolet scintillation light into the visible spectrum for detection and event reconstruction. Understanding the wavelength shifting efficiency and optical properties of these films are critical aspects in detector performance and modeling and hence in the ultimate physics sensitivity of such experiments. This article presents the first measurements of the room-temperature microphysical quantum efficiency for vacuum-deposited TPB thin films - a result that is independent of the optics of the TPB or substrate. Also presented are measurements of the absorption length in the vacuum ultraviolet regime, the secondary re-emission efficiency, and more precise results for the "black-box" efficiency across a broader spectrum of wavelengths than previous results. The low-wavelength sensitivity, in particular, would allow construction of LNG scintillator detectors with lighter elements (Ne, He) to target light mass WIMPs.

  10. Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

  11. A Regime Diagram for Subduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegman, D. R.; Farrington, R.; Capitanio, F. A.; Schellart, W. P.

    2009-12-01

    Regime diagrams and associated scaling relations have profoundly influenced our understanding of planetary dynamics. Previous regime diagrams characterized the regimes of stagnant-lid, small viscosity contrast, transitional, and no-convection for temperature-dependent (Moresi and Solomatov, 1995), and non-linear power law rheologies (Solomatov and Moresi, 1997) as well as stagnant-lid, sluggish-lid, and mobile-lid regimes once the finite strength of rock was considered (Moresi and Solomatov, 1998). Scalings derived from such models have been the cornerstone for parameterized models of thermal evolution of rocky planets and icy moons for the past decade. While such a theory can predict the tectonic state of a planetary body, it is still rather incomplete in regards to predicting tectonics. For example, the mobile-lid regime is unspecific as to how continuous lithospheric recycling should occur on a terrestrial planet. Towards this goal, Gerya et al., (2008) advanced a new regime diagram aiming to characterize when subduction would manifest itself as a one-sided or two-sided downwelling and either symmetric or asymmetric. Here, we present a regime diagram for the case of a single-sided, asymmetric type of subduction (most Earth-like type). Using a 3-D numerical model of a free subduction, we describe a total of 5 different styles of subduction that can possibly occur. Each style is distinguished by its upper mantle slab morphology resulting from the sinking kinematics. We provide movies to illustrate the different styles and their progressive time-evolution. In each regime, subduction is accommodated by a combination of plate advance and slab rollback, with associated motions of forward plate velocity and trench retreat, respectively. We demonstrate that the preferred subduction mode depends upon two essential controlling factors: 1) buoyancy of the downgoing plate and 2) strength of plate in resisting bending at the hinge. We propose that a variety of subduction

  12. Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region-Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasischke, Eric S.; Turetsky, Merritt R.

    2006-05-01

    We used historic records from 1959-99 to explore fire regime characteristics at ecozone scales across the entire North American boreal region (NABR). Shifts in the NABR fire regime between the 1960s/70s and the 1980s/90s were characterized by a doubling of annual burned area and more than a doubling of the frequency of larger fire years because of more large fire events (>1,000 km2). The proportion of total burned area from human-ignited fires decreased over this same time period, while the proportion of burning during the early and late- growing-seasons increased. Trends in increased burned area were consistent across the NABR ecozones, though the western ecozones experienced greater increases in larger fire years compared to the eastern ecozones. Seasonal patterns of burning differed among ecozones. Along with the climate warming, changes in the fire regime characteristics may be an important driver of future ecosystem processes in the NABR.

  13. Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

  14. Examination Regimes and Student Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cosentino de Cohen, Clemencia

    2010-01-01

    Examination regimes at the end of secondary school vary greatly intra- and cross-nationally, and in recent years have undergone important reforms often geared towards increasing student achievement. This research presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between examination regimes and student achievement in the OECD. Using a micro…

  15. The initial regime of drop coalescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anthony, Christopher; Harris, Michael; Basaran, Osman

    2017-11-01

    Drop coalescence plays a key role in both industry and nature. Consequently, study of the phenomenon has been the focus of numerous experimental, computational and theoretical works to date. In coalescence, two drops come into contact and a liquid bridge forms between them. As time advances, this bridge grows from microscopic to macroscopic scales. Despite the large volume of work dedicated to this problem, currently experiment, theory, and computation are not in perfect agreement with respect to the earliest times following the initial contact of the drops. Experiments report an initial regime where the radius of the connecting bridge grows linearly in time before a transition to either a Stokes regime or an inertial regime where either viscous or inertial forces balance capillary force. In the initial linear regime, referred to as the inertially-limited viscous regime, all three forces are thought to be important. This is in contrast to theory which predicts that all coalescence events begin in the Stokes regime. We use high accuracy numerical simulation to show that the existing discrepancy in the literature can be resolved by paying careful attention to the initial conditions that set the shape and size of the bridge connecting the two drops.

  16. Temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities under different moisture regimes: high-throughput sequencing and bioinformatics analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, Mikhail; Zhuravleva, Anna; Semenov, Vyacheslav; Yevdokimov, Ilya; Larionova, Alla

    2017-04-01

    Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Microorganisms are well known to be more sensitive to changes in environmental conditions than to other soil chemical and physical parameters. In this study, we determined the shifts in soil microbial community structure as well as indicative taxa in soils under three moisture regimes using high-throughput Illumina sequencing and range of bioinformatics approaches for the assessment of sequence data. Incubation experiments were performed in soil-filled (Greyic Phaeozems Albic) rhizoboxes with maize and without plants. Three contrasting moisture regimes were being simulated: 1) optimal wetting (OW), a watering 2-3 times per week to maintain soil moisture of 20-25% by weight; 2) periodic wetting (PW), with alternating periods of wetting and drought; and 3) constant insufficient wetting (IW), while soil moisture of 12% by weight was permanently maintained. Sampled fresh soils were homogenized, and the total DNA of three replicates was extracted using the FastDNA® SPIN kit for Soil. DNA replicates were combined in a pooled sample and the DNA was used for PCR with specific primers for the 16S V3 and V4 regions. In order to compare variability between different samples and replicates within a single sample, some DNA replicates treated separately. The products were purified and submitted to Illumina MiSeq sequencing. Sequence data were evaluated by alpha-diversity (Chao1 and Shannon H' diversity indexes), beta-diversity (UniFrac and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity), heatmap, tagcloud, and plot-bar analyses using the MiSeq Reporter Metagenomics Workflow and R packages (phyloseq, vegan, tagcloud). Shannon index varied in a rather narrow range (4.4-4.9) with the lowest values for microbial communities under PW treatment. Chao1 index varied from 385 to 480, being a more flexible

  17. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hooijdonk, I. G. S.; Moene, A. F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H. J. H.; van de Wiel, B. J. H.

    2017-02-01

    The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin-Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

  18. Two Regimes of Bandgap Red Shift and Partial Ambient Retention in Pressure-Treated Two-Dimensional Perovskites

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Gang; Kong, Lingping; Guo, Peijun

    The discovery of elevated environmental stability in two-dimensional (2D) Ruddlesden–Popper hybrid perovskites represents a significant advance in low-cost, high-efficiency light absorbers. In comparison to 3D counterparts, 2D perovskites of organo-lead-halides exhibit wider, quantum-confined optical bandgaps that reduce the wavelength range of light absorption. Here, we characterize the structural and optical properties of 2D hybrid perovskites as a function of hydrostatic pressure. We observe bandgap narrowing with pressure of 633 meV that is partially retained following pressure release due to an atomic reconfiguration mechanism. We identify two distinct regimes of compression dominated by the softer organic and less compressible inorganic sublattices.more » Our findings, which also include PL enhancement, correlate well with density functional theory calculations and establish structure–property relationships at the atomic scale. These concepts can be expanded into other hybrid perovskites and suggest that pressure/strain processing could offer a new route to improved materials-by-design in applications.« less

  19. The influence of climate regime shifts on the marine environment and ecosystems in the East Asian Marginal Seas and their mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kun Jung, Hae; Rahman, SM Mustafizur; Kang, Chang-Keun; Park, Se-Young; Heon Lee, Sang; Je Park, Hyun; Kim, Hyun-Woo; Il Lee, Chung

    2017-09-01

    Step changes to seawater temperature (SWT) in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) are associated with three recent climate regime shifts (CRS) occurring in the mid-1970s, late 1980s, and late 1990s, but the responses of the ocean conditions and marine ecosystems had regional differences. A step change in SWT in the East China Sea (ECS) was detected after the CRS of the 1970s as were step changes in the North Pacific Index (NPI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI), and East Asian Winter Monsoon Index (EAWMI). SWT in the ECS decreased with decreasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS and a strong monsoon, but step changes in SWT in other regions were not detected as clearly. After the CRS of the 1980s, SWT in all EAMS increased rapidly with step changes detected in all five climate indices examined. These changes were associated with a weak winter monsoon, increasing surface air temperature (SAT), and increasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS. However, after the CRS of the 1990s, a decrease in SWT around the EAMS was detected in the northern part of East China Sea (NECS), and the ECS with step changes also in the EAWMI and the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). In contrast, SWT in the East Sea/Sea of Japan (EJS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) continuously increased during this time. Long-term changes in zooplankton biomass were affected by regional differences in the responses of atmospheric and oceanic variability to CRSs. Specifically, long-term changes in the timing of peaks in zooplankton abundances exhibited differences. During warm periods (e.g. after the 1980s CRS) in the EJS, the amount of zooplankton biomass in October increased, while in February it decreased. On the contrary, in the YS and the NECS, the peaks of October and June in zooplankton biomass occurred during cold periods (after the 1970s and 1990s CRS). Major fisheries resources also responded to the three CRSs, although warm and cold water species responded differently to changes

  20. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

    PubMed Central

    Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests. PMID:21788495

  1. Growth and abundance of Pacific Sand Lance, Ammodytes hexapterus, under differing oceanographic regimes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robards, Martin D.; Gray, Floyd; Piatt, John F.

    2002-01-01

    Dramatic changes in seabird and marine mammal stocks in the Gulf of Alaska have been linked to shifts in abundance and composition of forage fish stocks over the past 20 years. The relative value (e.g., size and condition of individual fish, abundance) of specific forage fish stocks to predators under temporally changing oceanographic regimes is also expected to vary. We inferred potential temporal responses in abundance, growth, and age structure of a key forage fish, sand lance, by studying across spatially different oceanographic regimes. Marked meso-scale differences in abundance, growth, and mortality existed in conjunction with these differing regimes. Growth rate within stocks (between years) was positively correlated with temperature. However, this relationship did not exist among stocks (locations) and differing growth rates were better correlated to marine productivity. Sand lance were least abundant and grew slowest at the warmest site (Chisik Island), an area of limited habitat and low food abundance. Abundance and growth of juvenile sand lance was highest at the coolest site (Barren Islands), an area of highly productive upwelled waters. Sand lance at two sites located oceanographically between the Barren Islands and Chisik Island (inner- and outer-Kachemak Bay) displayed correspondingly intermediate abundance and growth. Resident predators at these sites are presented with markedly different numbers and quality of this key prey species. Our results suggest that at the decadal scale, Gulf of Alaska forage fish such as sand lance are probably more profoundly affected by changes in abundance and quality of their planktonic food, than by temperature alone.

  2. Snowpack Regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, E.; Molotch, N. P.

    2011-12-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments, and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here, we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at over seven hundred snow pillow stations in the Western U.S., focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the cross relationships between the different metrics. The metrics include the initial snow accumulation and meltout dates, the peak accumulation and date of peak, the time from initial accumulation to peak, the time from peak to meltout, the accumulation and melt slopes, and the daily rates of accumulation and melt. Three distinct regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermediate (intercontinental), and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days, while on the other hand; the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intercontinental regime lies in between. Several other differences are identified between the metrics of the SWE curve in these regimes. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intercontinental regime includes the Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Idaho Batholith, the Northern Rockies and the Blue Mountains. Lastly, the Continental regime includes the Middle and Southern

  3. Evidence of chemical-potential shift with hole doping in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Z.-X.; Dessau, D. S.; Wells, B. O.; Olson, C. G.; Mitzi, D. B.; Lombado, Lou; List, R. S.; Arko, A. J.

    1991-12-01

    We have performed photoemission studies on high-quality Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ samples with various δ. Our results show a clear chemical-potential shift (0.15-0.2 eV) as a function of doping. This result and the existing angle-resolved-photoemission data give a rather standard doping behavior of this compound in its highly doped regime.

  4. Transition from linear- to nonlinear-focusing regime in filamentation

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Khan; Durand, Magali; Baudelet, Matthieu; Richardson, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Laser filamentation in gases is often carried out in the laboratory with focusing optics to better stabilize the filament, whereas real-world applications of filaments frequently involve collimated or near-collimated beams. It is well documented that geometrical focusing can alter the properties of laser filaments and, consequently, a transition between a collimated and a strongly focused filament is expected. Nevertheless, this transition point has not been identified. Here, we propose an analytical method to determine the transition, and show that it corresponds to an actual shift in the balance of physical mechanisms governing filamentation. In high-NA conditions, filamentation is primarily governed by geometrical focusing and plasma effects, while the Kerr nonlinearity plays a more significant role as NA decreases. We find the transition between the two regimes to be relatively insensitive to the intrinsic laser parameters, and our analysis agrees well with a wide range of parameters found in published literature. PMID:25434678

  5. Snowpack regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, Ernesto; Molotch, Noah P.

    2014-07-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at 766 snow pillow stations in the Western United States, focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the relationships between the different metrics. The metrics are the initial snow accumulation and snow disappearance dates, the peak snow accumulation and date of peak, the length of the snow accumulation season, the length of the snowmelt season, and the snow accumulation and snowmelt slopes. Three snow regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermountain, and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days. Conversely, the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intermountain regime lies in between. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intermountain regime includes the Eastern Cascades slopes and foothills, the Blue Mountains, Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Columbia Mountains/Northern Rockies, the Idaho Batholith, and the Canadian Rockies. Lastly, the continental regime includes the Middle and Southern Rockies, and the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. The implications of snow regime

  6. Chapter 5. Borderlands fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Margot Wilkinson-Kaye; Thomas Swetnam; Christopher R. Baisan

    2006-01-01

    Fire is a keystone process in most natural, terrestrial ecosystems. The vital role that fire plays in controlling the structure of an ecosystem underscores the need for us to increase our knowledge of past and current fire regimes (Morgan and others 1994). Dendrochronological reconstructions of fire histories provide descriptions of past fire regimes across a range of...

  7. Single-photon superradiance and cooperative Lamb shift in an optoelectronic device (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirtori, Carlo

    2017-02-01

    Superradiance is one of the many fascinating phenomena predicted by quantum electrodynamics that have first been experimentally demonstrated in atomic systems and more recently in condensed matter systems like quantum dots, superconducting q-bits, cyclotron transitions and plasma oscillations in quantum wells (QWs). It occurs when a dense collection of N identical two-level emitters are phased via the exchange of photons, giving rise to enhanced light-matter interaction, hence to a faster emission rate. Of great interest is the regime where the ensemble interacts with one photon only and therefore all of the atoms, but one, are in the ground state. In this case the quantum superposition of all possible configurations produces a symmetric state that decays radiatively with a rate N times larger than that of the individual oscillators. This phenomenon, called single photon superradiance, results from the exchange of real photons among the N emitters. Yet, to single photon superradiance is also associated another collective effect that renormalizes the emission frequency, known as cooperative Lamb shift. In this work, we show that single photon superradiance and cooperative Lamb shift can be engineered in a semiconductor device by coupling spatially separated plasma resonances arising from the collective motion of confined electrons in QWs. These resonances hold a giant dipole along the growth direction z and have no mutual Coulomb coupling. They thus behave as a collection of macro-atoms on different positions along the z axis. Our device is therefore a test bench to simulate the low excitation regime of quantum electrodynamics.

  8. Shifts in the distribution of molting Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) indicate ecosystem change in the Arctic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sexson, Matthew; Petersen, Margaret; Breed, Greg A.; Powell, Abby N.

    2016-01-01

    Shifts in the distribution of benthivorous predators provide an indication of underlying environmental changes in benthic-mediated ecosystems. Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) are benthivorous sea ducks that spend the nonbreeding portion of their annual cycle in the Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort, and East Siberian seas. Sea ducks generally molt in biologically productive areas with abundant prey. If the distribution of eiders at molting areas matches prey abundance, spatial shifts may indicate changes in environmental conditions in the Arctic. We used a randomization procedure to test for shifts in the distribution of satellite telemetry locations received from Spectacled Eiders in the 1990s and 2008–2011 within 4 late-summer, ice-free molting areas: Indigirka–Kolyma, northern Russia; Ledyard Bay, eastern Chukchi Sea; Norton Sound, northeastern Bering Sea; and Mechigmenskiy Gulf, northwestern Bering Sea. We also tested for interannual and interdecadal changes in dive depth required to reach prey, which might affect the energetic costs of foraging during the molting period. Transmitter-marked birds used each molting area in each year, although the distribution of Spectacled Eiders shifted within each area. Interdecadal shifts in Ledyard Bay and Norton Sound decreased dive depth in recent years, although minor differences in depth were biologically negligible in relation to the energetic expense of feather growth. Shifts in Mechigmenskiy Gulf and Indigirka–Kolyma did not occur consistently within or among decades, which suggests greater interannual variability among environmental factors that influence distribution in these areas. Shifts in each molting area suggest dynamic ecosystem processes, with implications for Spectacled Eiders if changes result in novel competition or predation, or in shifting prey regimes.

  9. A contrast between nocturnal flow regimes: Observations and modeling simulations of katabatic intrusions in the Laramie Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juliano, Timothy W.

    Katabatic winds commonly occur in mountainous regions under statically stable conditions when a sufficient deficit exists in the net radiation budget. Observations of these stable boundary layer (SBL) downslope flows have extended back to the 1930s. Their interactions with other SBL processes, including cold air pools (CAPs) and mountain waves, are quite complex, however, and have only more recently been deeply investigated. The University of Wyoming (UW) wind tower (WT) and flux tower (WT), situated in the Laramie Valley, were utilized in examining a dataset spanning from 14 December 2011 to 12 September 2013. A set of criteria were developed to determine katabatic intrusion events, and establish a climatology of these events, at the WT. The 21-22 December 2012 nighttime period was then studied in detail using data from the aforementioned towers in addition to weather stations throughout the Laramie Valley and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both observations and modeling results indicated a competition between two strongly contrasting flow regimes: synoptic and katabatic. The synoptic regime was characterized by strong, southwesterly winds, warm temperatures, and turbulent flow, while the katabatic regime featured weaker, southeasterly winds, cooler temperatures, and intermittently turbulent flow. Sonic and propeller anemometers on the WT elucidated the chaotic transition between the regimes. At the WT, it was found that between regimes the wind speed decreased by up to 60%, wind direction often shifted over 120°, and potential temperature usually decreased more than 2°C. The katabatic wind depth was postulated to be variable in time and space, with its head sloping towards the trailing CAP. Topographically generated mountain waves and local terrain forcing are suspected to play an integral role in the development and evolution of the katabatic wind in the Laramie Valley. Results from this research yield promising insight into the intricate

  10. Potential Influence of Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E. I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Lu, X.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the tradeoffs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.

  11. Clinical symptoms, signs and tests for identification of impending and current water-loss dehydration in older people.

    PubMed

    Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Attreed, Natalie J; Campbell, Wayne W; Channell, Adam M; Chassagne, Philippe; Culp, Kennith R; Fletcher, Stephen J; Fortes, Matthew B; Fuller, Nigel; Gaspar, Phyllis M; Gilbert, Daniel J; Heathcote, Adam C; Kafri, Mohannad W; Kajii, Fumiko; Lindner, Gregor; Mack, Gary W; Mentes, Janet C; Merlani, Paolo; Needham, Rowan A; Olde Rikkert, Marcel G M; Perren, Andreas; Powers, James; Ranson, Sheila C; Ritz, Patrick; Rowat, Anne M; Sjöstrand, Fredrik; Smith, Alexandra C; Stookey, Jodi J D; Stotts, Nancy A; Thomas, David R; Vivanti, Angela; Wakefield, Bonnie J; Waldréus, Nana; Walsh, Neil P; Ward, Sean; Potter, John F; Hunter, Paul

    2015-04-30

    There is evidence that water-loss dehydration is common in older people and associated with many causes of morbidity and mortality. However, it is unclear what clinical symptoms, signs and tests may be used to identify early dehydration in older people, so that support can be mobilised to improve hydration before health and well-being are compromised. To determine the diagnostic accuracy of state (one time), minimally invasive clinical symptoms, signs and tests to be used as screening tests for detecting water-loss dehydration in older people by systematically reviewing studies that have measured a reference standard and at least one index test in people aged 65 years and over. Water-loss dehydration was defined primarily as including everyone with either impending or current water-loss dehydration (including all those with serum osmolality ≥ 295 mOsm/kg as being dehydrated). Structured search strategies were developed for MEDLINE (OvidSP), EMBASE (OvidSP), CINAHL, LILACS, DARE and HTA databases (The Cochrane Library), and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). Reference lists of included studies and identified relevant reviews were checked. Authors of included studies were contacted for details of further studies. Titles and abstracts were scanned and all potentially relevant studies obtained in full text. Inclusion of full text studies was assessed independently in duplicate, and disagreements resolved by a third author. We wrote to authors of all studies that appeared to have collected data on at least one reference standard and at least one index test, and in at least 10 people aged ≥ 65 years, even where no comparative analysis has been published, requesting original dataset so we could create 2 x 2 tables. Diagnostic accuracy of each test was assessed against the best available reference standard for water-loss dehydration (serum or plasma osmolality cut-off ≥ 295 mOsm/kg, serum osmolarity or weight change) within each study. For

  12. Downstream impacts of dams: shifts in benthic invertivorous fish assemblages

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Granzotti, Rafaela Vendrametto; Miranda, Leandro E.; Agostinho, Angelo A.; Gomes, Luiz Carlos

    2018-01-01

    Impoundments alter connectivity, sediment transport and water discharge in rivers and floodplains, affecting recruitment, habitat and resource availability for fish including benthic invertivorous fish, which represent an important link between primary producers and higher trophic levels in tropical aquatic ecosystems. We investigated long-term changes to water regime, water quality, and invertivorous fish assemblages pre and post impoundment in three rivers downstream of Porto Primavera Reservoir in south Brazil: Paraná, Baía and Ivinhema rivers. Impacts were distinct in the Paraná River, which is fully obstructed by the dam, less evident in the Baía River which is partially obstructed by the dam, but absent in the unimpounded Ivinhema River. Changes in water regime were reflected mainly as changes in water-level fluctuation with little effect on timing. Water transparency increased in the Paraná River post impoundment but did not change in the Baía and Ivinhema rivers. Changes in fish assemblages included a decrease in benthic invertivorous fish in the Paraná River and a shift in invertivorous fish assemblage structure in the Baía and Paraná rivers but not in the unimpounded Ivinhema River. Changes in water regime and water transparency, caused by impoundment, directly or indirectly impacted invertivorous fish assemblages. Alterations of fish assemblages following environmental changes have consequences over the entire ecosystem, including a potential decrease in the diversity of mechanisms for energy flow. We suggest that keeping existing unimpounded tributaries free of dams, engineering artificial floods, and intensive management of fish habitat within the floodplain may preserve native fish assemblages and help maintain functionality and ecosystem services in highly impounded rivers.

  13. A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

  14. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    PubMed

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. A proposal for digital electro-optic switches with free-carrier dispersion effect and Goos-Hanchen shift in silicon-on-insulator waveguide corner mirror

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, DeGui

    2013-09-01

    In a silicon-on-insulator (SOI) waveguide corner mirror (WCM) structure, with the quantum process of a frustrated total internal reflection (FTIR) phenomenon and the time delay principle in the two-dimensional potential barrier tunneling process of a mass of particles, we derive an accurate physical model for the Goos-Hanchen (GH) shift of optical guided-mode in the FTIR process, and in principle match the GH shift jumping states with the independent guided-modes. Then, we propose and demonstrate a new regime of 1 × N digital optical switches with a matching state between the free-carrier dispersion (FCD) based refractive index modulation (RIM) of silicon to create a GH shift jumping function of a photonic signal at the reflecting interface and the independent guided-modes in the FTIR process, where a MOS-capacitor type electro-optic modulation regime is proposed and discussed to realize an effective FCD-based RIM. At the critical matching state, i.e., the incident of an optical beam is at the vicinity of Brewster angle in the WCM, a mini-change of refractive index of waveguide material can cause a great jump of GH shift along the FTIR reflecting interface, and further a 1 × N digital optical switching process could be realized. For a 350-500 nm single-mode rib waveguide made on the 220 nm CMOS-compatible SOI substrate and with the FCD effect based RIM of silicon crystal, a concentration variation of 1018-1019 cm-3 has caused a 0.5-2.5 μm GH shift of reflected beam, which is at 2-5 times of a mode-size and hence radically convinces an optical switching function with a 1 × 3-1 × 10 scale.

  16. Regulation of sexuality in Indonesian discourse: normative gender, criminal law and shifting strategies of control.

    PubMed

    Blackwood, Evelyn

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines changes in the regulation of sexuality in Indonesia in the period since 1980 as seen through state, religious and lesbian and gay activist discourses on sexuality. Three different eras during that period of Indonesian history are compared. Under the New Order regime of Suharto, the Indonesian state sought to control sexuality through a deployment of gender. During the 1990s, state Islamic discourses of sexuality shifted in response to international pressures to support same-sex marriage and sexual rights. During the third period following the end of the Suharto regime in 1998, a conservative Islamic minority pushed for more restrictive laws in the State Penal Code, initiating intense public debate on the role of the state in questions of sexuality and morality. Over this time period, the dominant discourse on sexuality moved from strategically linking normative gender with heterosexuality and marriage to direct attempts to legislate heterosexual marriage by criminalizing a wide range of sexual practices.

  17. Shift Work and Shift Work Sleep Disorder: Clinical and Organizational Perspectives.

    PubMed

    Wickwire, Emerson M; Geiger-Brown, Jeanne; Scharf, Steven M; Drake, Christopher L

    2017-05-01

    Throughout the industrialized world, nearly one in five employees works some form of nontraditional shift. Such shift work is associated with numerous negative health consequences, ranging from cognitive complaints to cancer, as well as diminished quality of life. Furthermore, a substantial percentage of shift workers develop shift work disorder, a circadian rhythm sleep disorder characterized by excessive sleepiness, insomnia, or both as a result of shift work. In addition to adverse health consequences and diminished quality of life at the individual level, shift work disorder incurs significant costs to employers through diminished workplace performance and increased accidents and errors. Nonetheless, shift work will remain a vital component of the modern economy. This article reviews seminal and recent literature regarding shift work, with an eye toward real-world application in clinical and organizational settings. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geddes, J.

    2017-12-01

    Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

  19. Dynamic conductivity and plasmon profile of aluminum in the ultra-fast-matter regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dharma-wardana, M. W. C.

    2016-06-01

    We use an explicitly isochoric two-temperature theory to analyze recent x-ray laser scattering data for aluminum in the ultra-fast-matter (UFM) regime up to 6 eV. The observed surprisingly low conductivities are explained by including strong electron-ion scattering effects using the phase shifts calculated via the neutral-pseudo-atom model. The difference between the static conductivity for UFM-Al and equilibrium aluminum in the warm-dense matter state is clearly brought out by comparisons with available density-fucntional+molecular-dynamics simulations. Thus the applicability of the Mermin model to UFM is questioned. The static and dynamic conductivity, collision frequency, and the plasmon line shape, evaluated within the simplest Born approximation for UFM aluminum, are in good agreement with experiment.

  20. Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

    PubMed

    Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

    2017-11-01

    Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

  1. Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

    2016-04-01

    Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

  2. Shift work and the assessment and management of shift work disorder (SWD).

    PubMed

    Wright, Kenneth P; Bogan, Richard K; Wyatt, James K

    2013-02-01

    Nearly 20% of the labor force worldwide, work shifts that include work hours outside 07:00 h to 18:00 h. Shift work is common in many occupations that directly affect the health and safety of others (e.g., protective services, transportation, healthcare), whereas quality of life, health, and safety during shift work and the commute home can affect workers in any field. Increasing evidence indicates that shift-work schedules negatively influence worker physiology, health, and safety. Shift work disrupts circadian sleep and alerting cycles, resulting in disturbed daytime sleep and excessive sleepiness during the work shift. Moreover, shift workers are at risk for shift work disorder (SWD). This review focuses on shift work and the assessment and management of sleepiness and sleep disruption associated with shift work schedules and SWD. Management strategies include approaches to promote sleep, wakefulness, and adaptation of the circadian clock to the imposed work schedule. Additional studies are needed to further our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the health risks of shift work, understanding which shift workers are at most risk of SWD, to investigate treatment options that address the health and safety burdens associated with shift work and SWD, and to further develop and assess the comparative effectiveness of countermeasures and treatment options. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenna, Owen; Mushet, David M.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; LaBaugh, James W.

    2017-01-01

    Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

  4. Change from slowly rotating 8-hour shifts to rapidly rotating 8-hour and 12-hour shifts using participative shift roster design.

    PubMed

    Smith, P A; Wright, B M; Mackey, R W; Milsop, H W; Yates, S C

    1998-01-01

    The study examined the impact of change, from slowly rotating continuous 8-hour shifts to more rapidly rotating continuous 8-hour and 12-hour shifts, on the health and quality of life of shift workers. Self-report survey data were collected from 72 shift workers at 3 sewage treatment plants before and several months after roster change. After the change 1 plant first worked a rapidly rotating, 8-hour shift roster and then worked a 12-hour shift roster, and the other 2 plants worked continuous 12-hour shift rosters. After the change the shift workers at each plant reported increased satisfaction with roster design, a decrease in physical and psychological circadian malaise associated with shift work, improved day sleep quality, less tiredness, and improvements in the quality of home, social and work life. A between-plant comparison of the rapidly rotating 8-hour and 12-hour shift rosters showed greater improvements had been obtained with the 12-hour shift roster, and no significant differences in tiredness or sleep quality between the redesigned 8- and 12-hour shift rosters. However, a within-plant matched-pairs comparison at the 1st plant of the rapidly rotating 8-hour shift roster and the 12-hour shift roster showed no significant differences. The results show that the prior level of support for change may best explain the impact of roster redesign on individual well-being. They lend further support to shift worker participation in roster design.

  5. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United Kingdom...

  6. Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jing; Tan, Hua; Huang, Shanqian; Cui, Yujun; Dong, Lu; Ma, Chaofeng; Ma, Changan; Zhou, Sen; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhang, Yanyun; Wang, Jingjun; Yang, Ruifu; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Xu, Bing

    2017-01-01

    Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons. PMID:28141833

  7. Non-occupational physical activity levels of shift workers compared with non-shift workers

    PubMed Central

    Loef, Bette; Hulsegge, Gerben; Wendel-Vos, G C Wanda; Verschuren, W M Monique; Bakker, Marije F; van der Beek, Allard J; Proper, Karin I

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Lack of physical activity (PA) has been hypothesised as an underlying mechanism in the adverse health effects of shift work. Therefore, our aim was to compare non-occupational PA levels between shift workers and non-shift workers. Furthermore, exposure–response relationships for frequency of night shifts and years of shift work regarding non-occupational PA levels were studied. Methods Data of 5980 non-shift workers and 532 shift workers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) were used in these cross-sectional analyses. Time spent (hours/week) in different PA types (walking/cycling/exercise/chores) and intensities (moderate/vigorous) were calculated based on self-reported PA. Furthermore, sports were operationalised as: playing sports (no/yes), individual versus non-individual sports, and non-vigorous-intensity versus vigorous-intensity sports. PA levels were compared between shift workers and non-shift workers using Generalized Estimating Equations and logistic regression. Results Shift workers reported spending more time walking than non-shift workers (B=2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.4)), but shift work was not associated with other PA types and any of the sports activities. Shift workers who worked 1–4 night shifts/month (B=2.4 (95% CI 0.6 to 4.3)) and ≥5 night shifts/month (B=3.7 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.6)) spent more time walking than non-shift workers. No exposure–response relationships were found between years of shift work and PA levels. Conclusions Shift workers spent more time walking than non-shift workers, but we observed no differences in other non-occupational PA levels. To better understand if and how PA plays a role in the negative health consequences of shift work, our findings need to be confirmed in future studies. PMID:27872151

  8. Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2011-10-01

    SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

  9. Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate

    PubMed Central

    Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Éric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J.; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. PMID:24223888

  10. The shifting functional balance of patents and drug regulation.

    PubMed

    Eisenberg, R S

    2001-01-01

    Patents are often portrayed as the necessary reward to compensate pharmaceutical firms for the huge costs and risks associated with Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-mandated clinical trials of new drugs. But the relationship between the patent system and other regulation of drugs is more complex than this simple formulation suggests. Drug regulation operates in tandem with patents to make proprietary products profitable, and patents themselves increasingly threaten to limit profitability by diverting profits elsewhere. At the same time, resistance to high drug prices is prompting new state and federal regulatory initiatives that threaten to reduce the value of drug patents. The distinctive intertwining of patents with other regulatory regimes and the shifting role of patents in the biopharmaceutical sector call into question how this singular success story for innovation policy will play out in the future.

  11. Comparison of dynamic treatment regimes via inverse probability weighting.

    PubMed

    Hernán, Miguel A; Lanoy, Emilie; Costagliola, Dominique; Robins, James M

    2006-03-01

    Appropriate analysis of observational data is our best chance to obtain answers to many questions that involve dynamic treatment regimes. This paper describes a simple method to compare dynamic treatment regimes by artificially censoring subjects and then using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for any selection bias introduced by the artificial censoring. The basic strategy can be summarized in four steps: 1) define two regimes of interest, 2) artificially censor individuals when they stop following one of the regimes of interest, 3) estimate inverse probability weights to adjust for the potential selection bias introduced by censoring in the previous step, 4) compare the survival of the uncensored individuals under each regime of interest by fitting an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model with the dichotomous regime indicator and the baseline confounders as covariates. In the absence of model misspecification, the method is valid provided data are available on all time-varying and baseline joint predictors of survival and regime discontinuation. We present an application of the method to compare the AIDS-free survival under two dynamic treatment regimes in a large prospective study of HIV-infected patients. The paper concludes by discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of censoring/IPW versus g-estimation of nested structural models to compare dynamic regimes.

  12. Regimes of mini black hole abandoned to accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paik, Biplab

    2018-01-01

    Being inspired by the Eddington’s idea, along with other auxiliary arguments, it is unveiled that there exist regimes of a black hole that would prohibit accretion of ordinary energy. In explicit words, there exists a lower bound to black hole mass below which matter accretion process does not run for black holes. Not merely the baryonic matter, but, in regimes, also the massless photons could get prohibited from rushing into a black hole. However, unlike the baryon accretion abandoned black hole regime, the mass-regime of a black hole prohibiting accretion of radiation could vary along with its ambient temperature. For example, we discuss that earlier to 10‑8 s after the big-bang, as the cosmological temperature of the Universe grew above ˜ 1014 K, the mass range of black hole designating the radiation accretion abandoned regime, had to be in varying state being connected with the instantaneous age of the evolving Universe by an “one half” power law. It happens to be a fact that a black hole holding regimes prohibiting accretion of energy is gigantic by its size in comparison to the Planck length-scale. Hence the emergence of these regimes demands mini black holes for not being viable as profound suckers of energy. Consideration of accretion abandoned regimes could be crucial for constraining or judging the evolution of primordial black holes over the age of the Universe.

  13. Reduced Tolerance to Night Shift in Chronic Shift Workers: Insight From Fractal Regulation.

    PubMed

    Li, Peng; Morris, Christopher J; Patxot, Melissa; Yugay, Tatiana; Mistretta, Joseph; Purvis, Taylor E; Scheer, Frank A J L; Hu, Kun

    2017-07-01

    Healthy physiology is characterized by fractal regulation (FR) that generates similar structures in the fluctuations of physiological outputs at different time scales. Perturbed FR is associated with aging and age-related pathological conditions. Shift work, involving repeated and chronic exposure to misaligned environmental and behavioral cycles, disrupts circadian coordination. We tested whether night shifts perturb FR in motor activity and whether night shifts affect FR in chronic shift workers and non-shift workers differently. We studied 13 chronic shift workers and 14 non-shift workers as controls using both field and in-laboratory experiments. In the in-laboratory study, simulated night shifts were used to induce a misalignment between the endogenous circadian pacemaker and the sleep-wake cycles (ie, circadian misalignment) while environmental conditions and food intake were controlled. In the field study, we found that FR was robust in controls but broke down in shift workers during night shifts, leading to more random activity fluctuations as observed in patients with dementia. The night shift effect was present even 2 days after ending night shifts. The in-laboratory study confirmed that night shifts perturbed FR in chronic shift workers and showed that FR in controls was more resilience to the circadian misalignment. Moreover, FR during real and simulated night shifts was more perturbed in those who started shift work at older ages. Chronic shift work causes night shift intolerance, which is probably linked to the degraded plasticity of the circadian control system. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. FunShift: a database of function shift analysis on protein subfamilies

    PubMed Central

    Abhiman, Saraswathi; Sonnhammer, Erik L. L.

    2005-01-01

    Members of a protein family normally have a general biochemical function in common, but frequently one or more subgroups have evolved a slightly different function, such as different substrate specificity. It is important to detect such function shifts for a more accurate functional annotation. The FunShift database described here is a compilation of function shift analysis performed between subfamilies in protein families. It consists of two main components: (i) subfamilies derived from protein domain families and (ii) pairwise subfamily comparisons analyzed for function shift. The present release, FunShift 12, was derived from Pfam 12 and consists of 151 934 subfamilies derived from 7300 families. We carried out function shift analysis by two complementary methods on families with up to 500 members. From a total of 179 210 subfamily pairs, 62 384 were predicted to be functionally shifted in 2881 families. Each subfamily pair is provided with a markup of probable functional specificity-determining sites. Tools for searching and exploring the data are provided to make this database a valuable resource for protein function annotation. Knowledge of these functionally important sites will be useful for experimental biologists performing functional mutation studies. FunShift is available at http://FunShift.cgb.ki.se. PMID:15608176

  15. Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vannière, B.; Colombaroli, D.; Chapron, E.; Leroux, A.; Tinner, W.; Magny, M.

    2008-06-01

    A high-resolution sedimentary charcoal record from Lago dell'Accesa in southern Tuscany reveals numerous changes in fire regime over the last 11.6 kyr cal. BP and provides one of the longest gap-free series from Italy and the Mediterranean region. Charcoal analyses are coupled with gamma density measurements, organic-content analyses, and pollen counts to provide data about sedimentation and vegetation history. A comparison between fire frequency and lake-level reconstructions from the same site is used to address the centennial variability of fire regimes and its linkage to hydrological processes. Our data reveal strong relationships among climate, fire, vegetation, and land-use and attest to the paramount importance of fire in Mediterranean ecosystems. The mean fire interval (MFI) for the entire Holocene was estimated to be 150 yr, with a minimum around 80 yr and a maximum around 450 yr. Between 11.6 and 3.6 kyr cal. BP, up to eight high-frequency fire phases lasting 300-500 yr generally occurred during shifts towards low lake-level stands (ca 11,300, 10,700, 9500, 8700, 7600, 6200, 5300, 3400, 1800 and 1350 cal. yr BP). Therefore, we assume that most of these shifts were triggered by drier climatic conditions and especially a dry summer season that promoted ignition and biomass burning. At the beginning of the Holocene, high climate seasonality favoured fire expansion in this region, as in many other ecosystems of the northern and southern hemispheres. Human impact affected fire regimes and especially fire frequencies since the Neolithic (ca 8000-4000 cal. yr BP). Burning as a consequence of anthropogenic activities became more frequent after the onset of the Bronze Age (ca 3800-3600 cal. yr BP) and appear to be synchronous with the development of settlements in the region, slash-and-burn agriculture, animal husbandry, and mineral exploitation. The anthropogenic phases with maximum fire activity corresponded to greater sensitivity of the vegetation and triggered

  16. Non-occupational physical activity levels of shift workers compared with non-shift workers.

    PubMed

    Loef, Bette; Hulsegge, Gerben; Wendel-Vos, G C Wanda; Verschuren, W M Monique; Vermeulen, Roel C H; Bakker, Marije F; van der Beek, Allard J; Proper, Karin I

    2017-05-01

    Lack of physical activity (PA) has been hypothesised as an underlying mechanism in the adverse health effects of shift work. Therefore, our aim was to compare non-occupational PA levels between shift workers and non-shift workers. Furthermore, exposure-response relationships for frequency of night shifts and years of shift work regarding non-occupational PA levels were studied. Data of 5980 non-shift workers and 532 shift workers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) were used in these cross-sectional analyses. Time spent (hours/week) in different PA types (walking/cycling/exercise/chores) and intensities (moderate/vigorous) were calculated based on self-reported PA. Furthermore, sports were operationalised as: playing sports (no/yes), individual versus non-individual sports, and non-vigorous-intensity versus vigorous-intensity sports. PA levels were compared between shift workers and non-shift workers using Generalized Estimating Equations and logistic regression. Shift workers reported spending more time walking than non-shift workers (B=2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.4)), but shift work was not associated with other PA types and any of the sports activities. Shift workers who worked 1-4 night shifts/month (B=2.4 (95% CI 0.6 to 4.3)) and ≥5 night shifts/month (B=3.7 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.6)) spent more time walking than non-shift workers. No exposure-response relationships were found between years of shift work and PA levels. Shift workers spent more time walking than non-shift workers, but we observed no differences in other non-occupational PA levels. To better understand if and how PA plays a role in the negative health consequences of shift work, our findings need to be confirmed in future studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Chaos and wave propagation regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colosi, John

    2003-04-01

    Ray chaos theory and parabolic equation numerical modeling were two thrusts of Fred Tappert's research that were perpetually in tension. Fred was interested in the problem of identifying wave propagation regimes, most notably the strong focusing caustic regime and its evolution into the saturation regime. On the one hand, chaos theory held the seed of the complexity Fred believed existed in ocean acoustic wavefields; on the other hand ocean acoustic ray chaos theory (which Fred helped to pioneer) was a disdainful approximation to the full wave treatments offered by parabolic equation calculations. Fred was convinced that the saturation limit could not be obtained using ray theory and therefore he examined a new field of inquiry: a blend of chaotic ray insight and full wave dynamics called wave chaos. This talk will discuss some of Fred's insights on this topic and how they relate to observations from basin scale acoustic transmissions.

  18. Cargo liability regimes

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-01-01

    There are at present at least three international regimes of maritime cargo liability in force in different countries of the world - the original Hague rules (1924), the updated version known as the Hague-Visby rules (1968, further amended 1979), and...

  19. Influence of Precipitation Regime on Microbial Decomposition Patterns in Semi-Arid Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feris, K. P.; Jilek, C.; Huber, D. P.; Reinhardt, K.; deGraaff, M.; Lohse, K.; Germino, M.

    2011-12-01

    In water-limited semi-arid sagebrush steppe ecosystems predicted changes in climate may manifest as a shift from historically winter/snow-dominated precipitation regimes to one dominated by spring rains. In these ecosystems soil microorganisms play a vital role in linking the effects of water availability and plant productivity to biogeochemical cycling. Patterns of soil microbial catalyzed organic matter decomposition patters (i.e. patterns of extracellular enzyme activity (EEA)) are thought to depend upon the quantity and quality of soil organic matter (SOM), pH, and mean annual precipitation (Sinsabaugh, 2008), and less on the timing and magnitude of precipitation. However, sagebrush-steppe plant communities respond strongly to changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, and preliminary findings by our group suggest that corresponding changes in SOM quantity, quality, N-cycle dynamics, and soil structure are occurring. Therefore, we hypothesized: 1) Shifts in the timing and magnitude of precipitation would indirectly affect soil microbial decomposition patterns via responses in the plant community structure; and 2) Changes in precipitation patterns can directly affect soil microbial community structure and function, in effect uncoupling the interaction between plant community structure and soil community structure. We tested our hypotheses by determining the influence of experimentally manipulated timing and magnitude of precipitation on soil microbial EEA using standard flourometric assays in soils sampled under plant canopies and plant interspaces. We assessed this response in a mature (18 + years) ecohydrologic field experiment in eastern Idaho that annually imitates three possible post climatic-shift precipitation regimes (Ambient (AMB): no additional precipitation, ~200mm annually; Summer (SUMM): 200mm provisioned at 50mm bi-weekly starting in June; and Fall/Spring (F/S): 200mm provisioned over 1-2 weeks in October or April) (n=3). Within plant

  20. United theory of planet formation (i): Tandem regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebisuzaki, Toshikazu; Imaeda, Yusuke

    2017-07-01

    to be volatile-free because of the high temperature (>1000 K) at this formation site. Such water-free rocky particles may explain the formation of enstatite chondrites, of which the Earth is likely to be primarily composed of. It is also consistent with the model in which the Earth was initially formed as a completely volatile-free planet. The water and other volatile elements came later through the accretion of icy particles by the occasional scatterings in the outer regions. Our new proposed tandem planet formation regime shows that planetesimals are formed at two distinct sites (outer and inner edges of the MRI suppressed region). The former is likely to be the source of outer gas giants and the latter inner rocky planets. The tandem regime also explains the gap in the distribution of solid components (2-4 AU), which is necessary to form a ;solar-system-like; planetary system, which has a relatively small Mars and a very small mass in the main asteroid belt. We found that this tandem regime dose not take place when the vertical magnetic field of the disk five times weaker compared with that we assumed in the present paper, since the outer MRI front shift outward beyond 100 AU. This suggests that yet other regimes exists in our united theory. It may explain the variation observed in exsoplanetary systems by variations in magnetic field and probably angular momentum of the parent molecular cloud.

  1. Blue and red shifted temperature dependence of implicit phonon shifts in graphene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Sarita; Jindal, V. K.

    2017-07-01

    We have calculated the implicit shift for various modes of frequency in a pure graphene sheet. Thermal expansion and Grüneisen parameter which are required for implicit shift calculation have already been studied and reported. For this calculation, phonon frequencies are obtained using force constants derived from dynamical matrix calculated using VASP code where the density functional perturbation theory (DFPT) is used in interface with phonopy software. The implicit phonon shift shows an unusual behavior as compared to the bulk materials. The frequency shift is large negative (red shift) for ZA and ZO modes and the value of negative shift increases with increase in temperature. On the other hand, blue shift arises for all other longitudinal and transverse modes with a similar trend of increase with increase in temperature. The q dependence of phonon shifts has also been studied. Such simultaneous red and blue shifts in transverse or out plane modes and surface modes, respectively leads to speculation of surface softening in out of plane direction in preference to surface melting.

  2. Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management - the Elbe water quality regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowsky, I.

    2008-02-01

    The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing about cooperation. However, knowledge about how such institutions should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships that lead to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship between institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expediency of the institutional arrangements. The study shows overall that the countries were relatively successful in improving water quality in the Elbe basin. However, this outcome can only partly be attributed to the ICPE itself. Furthermore, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity: it was relatively significant where the main responsibility for action lay with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model, but was practically non-existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). The commission contributed towards problem solving by serving as a forum for the joint identification of priorities for action from a basin-wide perspective. The resulting international obligations increased the power of national water administrations and their access to funds. At the same time

  3. Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management - the Elbe water quality regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowsky, I.

    2007-06-01

    The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing cooperation about. However, the knowledge on how they should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships leading to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship of institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expedience of the institutional arrangements. The study shows that overall due to external as well as internal institutional factors the ICPE proved relatively successful, and as such it also provides insights into how institutions matter: The commission served as platform for joint problem solving by identifying priorities for action. These international obligations increased the power of national administrations and their access to funds. At the same time, the Commission's reporting to the public served as an enforcement mechanism. However, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity. It was high where the main responsibility for action was with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model. It was practically non existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where the success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). From a methodological point

  4. Planning for Post-Regime Change Environments: The Introduction of a Post-Regime Environment Planning Partnership (PREPP)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-26

    makers. The third case study, on Nigeria , will provide an analysis of a peaceful transition of power. Finally, the structure for a proposed Post...15. SUBJECT TERMS Regime Change, National Security Council, Kosovo, Libya, Nigeria , transition of power, post-regime change planning. 16. SECURITY...conflation that exists between the planning element and politically appointed decision makers. The third case study, on Nigeria , will provide an analysis of

  5. Fluid shifts and endocrine responses during chair rest and water immersion in man

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenleaf, J. E.; Shvartz, E.; Kravik, S.; Keil, L. C.

    1980-01-01

    The effects of external water pressure on intercompartmental fluid volume shifts and endocrine responses in man are investigated. Extracellular fluid volumes and plasma and urine electrolyte and endocrine responses of four male subjects were measured during eight hours of head-out water immersion and 16 hours of recovery bed rest and compared to responses obtained during eight hours of chair rest and 16 hours of bed rest without external hydrostatic pressure obtained in the same subjects five months later. Immersion is found to result in a substantial diuresis with respect to chair rest, accounted for by decreases in extracellular volume. A negative water balance during immersion and a positive water balance during chair rest were observed to be accompanied by a shift of extracellular volume to the intracellular compartment, as well as the suppression of plasma arginine vasopressin and renin activities in both regimes. The vasopressin and renin activity decreases are attributed to the increased central blood volume, and half of the plasma loss in immersed subjects is attributed to the effects of external water pressure.

  6. Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnstone, Jill F.; Allen, Craig D.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Frelich, Lee E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Mack, Michelle C.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.; Metz, Margaret R.; Perry, George LW; Schoennagel, Tania; Turner, Monica G.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological memory is central to how ecosystems respond to disturbance and is maintained by two types of legacies – information and material. Species life-history traits represent an adaptive response to disturbance and are an information legacy; in contrast, the abiotic and biotic structures (such as seeds or nutrients) produced by single disturbance events are material legacies. Disturbance characteristics that support or maintain these legacies enhance ecological resilience and maintain a “safe operating space” for ecosystem recovery. However, legacies can be lost or diminished as disturbance regimes and environmental conditions change, generating a “resilience debt” that manifests only after the system is disturbed. Strong effects of ecological memory on post-disturbance dynamics imply that contingencies (effects that cannot be predicted with certainty) of individual disturbances, interactions among disturbances, and climate variability combine to affect ecosystem resilience. We illustrate these concepts and introduce a novel ecosystem resilience framework with examples of forest disturbances, primarily from North America. Identifying legacies that support resilience in a particular ecosystem can help scientists and resource managers anticipate when disturbances may trigger abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems, and when forests are likely to be resilient.

  7. Looking at Clouds from All Sides Now

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katz, Richard N.

    2010-01-01

    On February 9 and 10, 2010, fifty leaders from colleges, universities, corporations, professional associations, and state networks met in Tempe, Arizona, to discuss cloud computing and the impending shift in the mix of where infrastructure, applications, and services are sourced. This group identified a set of actions that colleges and…

  8. Transient dynamics of a quantum-dot: From Kondo regime to mixed valence and to empty orbital regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, YongXi; Li, ZhenHua; Wei, JianHua; Nie, YiHang; Yan, YiJing

    2018-04-01

    Based on the hierarchical equations of motion approach, we study the time-dependent transport properties of a strongly correlated quantum dot system in the Kondo regime (KR), mixed valence regime (MVR), and empty orbital regime (EOR). We find that the transient current in KR shows the strongest nonlinear response and the most distinct oscillation behaviors. Both behaviors become weaker in MVR and diminish in EOR. To understand the physical insight, we examine also the corresponding dot occupancies and the spectral functions, with their dependence on the Coulomb interaction, temperature, and applied step bias voltage. The above nonlinear and oscillation behaviors could be understood as the interplay between dynamical Kondo resonance and single electron resonant-tunneling.

  9. Contributors to shift work tolerance in South Korean nurses working rotating shift.

    PubMed

    Jung, Hye-Sun; Lee, Bokim

    2015-05-01

    Shift workers have rapidly increased in South Korea; however, there is no published research exploring shift work tolerance among South Korean workers. This study aimed to investigate factors related to shift work tolerance in South Korean nurses. The sample comprised of 660 nurses who worked shifts in a large hospital in South Korea. A structured questionnaire included following comprehensive variables: demographic (age and number of children), individual (morningness and self-esteem), psychosocial (social support and job stress), lifestyle (alcohol consumption, physical activity, and BMI), and working condition factors (number of night shifts and working hours). Shift work tolerance was measured in terms of insomnia, fatigue, and depression. The results of hierarchical regressions indicate that all variables, except for three, number of children, BMI, and working hours, were related to at least one of the symptoms associated with shift work tolerance. Based on these results, we offer some practical implications to help improve shift work tolerance of workers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Sleep Loss and Fatigue in Shift Work and Shift Work Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Åkerstedt, Torbjörn; Wright, Kenneth P.

    2010-01-01

    Shift work is highly prevalent in industrialized societies (>20%) but, when it includes night work, it has pronounced negative effects on sleep, subjective and physiological sleepiness, performance, accident risk, as well as on health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and certain forms of cancer. The reason is the conflict between the day oriented circadian physiology and the requirement for work and sleep at the “wrong” biological time of day. Other factors that negatively impact work shift sleepiness and accident risk include long duration shifts greater than 12 hours and individual vulnerability for phase intolerance that may lead to a diagnosis of shift work disorder; i.e., those shift workers with the greatest sleepiness and performance impairment during the biological night and insomnia during the biological day. Whereas some countermeasures may be used to ameliorate the negative impact of shift work on nighttime sleepiness and daytime insomnia (combined countermeasures may be the best available), there seems at present to be no way to eliminate most of the negative effects of shift work on human physiology and cognition. PMID:20640236

  11. Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

    PubMed

    Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

    2017-09-19

    Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

  12. Altered precipitation regime affects the function and composition of soil microbial communities on multiple time scales.

    PubMed

    Zeglin, L H; Bottomley, P J; Jumpponen, A; Rice, C W; Arango, M; Lindsley, A; McGowan, A; Mfombep, P; Myrold, D D

    2013-10-01

    Climate change models predict that future precipitation patterns will entail lower-frequency but larger rainfall events, increasing the duration of dry soil conditions. Resulting shifts in microbial C cycling activity could affect soil C storage. Further, microbial response to rainfall events may be constrained by the physiological or nutrient limitation stress of extended drought periods; thus seasonal or multiannual precipitation regimes may influence microbial activity following soil wet-up. We quantified rainfall-driven dynamics of microbial processes that affect soil C loss and retention, and microbial community composition, in soils from a long-term (14-year) field experiment contrasting "Ambient" and "Altered" (extended intervals between rainfalls) precipitation regimes. We collected soil before, the day following, and five days following 2.5-cm rainfall events during both moist and dry periods (June and September 2011; soil water potential = -0.01 and -0.83 MPa, respectively), and measured microbial respiration, microbial biomass, organic matter decomposition potential (extracellular enzyme activities), and microbial community composition (phospholipid fatty acids). The equivalent rainfall events caused equivalent microbial respiration responses in both treatments. In contrast, microbial biomass was higher and increased after rainfall in the Altered treatment soils only, thus microbial C use efficiency (CUE) was higher in Altered than Ambient treatments (0.70 +/- 0.03 > 0.46 +/- 0.10). CUE was also higher in dry (September) soils. C-acquiring enzyme activities (beta-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, and phenol oxidase) increased after rainfall in moist (June), but not dry (September) soils. Both microbial biomass C:N ratios and fungal:bacterial ratios were higher at lower soil water contents, suggesting a functional and/or population-level shift in the microbiota at low soil water contents, and microbial community composition also differed following wet

  13. Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Cointegration and causal linkages among five different fertilizer markets are investigated during low and high market regimes. The database includes prices of rock phosphate (RP), triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and potassium chloride (PC). It is found that fertilizer markets are closely linked to each other during low and high regimes; and, particularly during high regime (after 2007 international financial crisis). In addition, there is no evidence of bidirectional linear relationship between markets during low and high regime time periods. Furthermore, all significant linkages are only unidirectional. Moreover, some causality effects have emerged during high regime. Finally, the effect of an impulse during high regime time period persists longer and is stronger than the effect of an impulse during low regime time period (before 2007 international financial crisis).

  14. Hydrologic regimes as potential drivers of morphologic divergence in fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bruckerhoff, Lindsey; Magoulick, Daniel D.

    2017-01-01

    Fishes often exhibit phenotypic divergence across gradients of abiotic and biotic selective pressures. In streams, many of the known selective pressures driving phenotypic differentiation are largely influenced by hydrologic regimes. Because flow regimes drive so many attributes of lotic systems, we hypothesized fish exhibit phenotypic divergence among streams with different flow regimes. We used a comparative field study to investigate the morphological divergence of Campostoma anomalom (central stonerollers) among streams characterized by highly variable, intermittent flow regimes and streams characterized by relatively stable, groundwater flow regimes. We also conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the plastic effects of one component of flow regimes, water velocity, on morphology of fish from different flow regimes. We observed differences in shape between flow regimes likely driven by differences in allometric growth patterns. Although we observed differences in morphology across flow regimes in the field, C. anomalum did not exhibit morphologic plasticity in response to water velocity alone. This study contributes to the understanding of how complex environmental factors drive phenotypic divergence and may provide insight into the evolutionary consequences of disrupting natural hydrologic patterns, which are increasingly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic alterations.

  15. The physical signs of impending dehydration among elderly people in nursing homes: The association with axillary skin temperature, humidity, intraoral moisture content, and salivary components.

    PubMed

    Okuyama, Mayumi; Nishida, Masumi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the association between impending dehydration among elderly people in nursing homes and physical signs, including the axillary skin temperature, humidity, intraoral moisture content, and salivary components. The study included 78 elderly individuals who required long-term care in a nursing home (11 men and 67 women; average age, 86.6±7.3 years). The elderly subjects were classified in two groups according to their serum osmolality levels: those with levels between the upper limit reference value (292 mOsm/kg H2O) and the diagnostic reference value of dehydration (300 mOsm/kg H2O) were classified into the boundary zone group and those with levels of <292 mOsm/kg H2O were classified into the normal range group. The following parameters were measured: basic attributes (age, gender and level of care required), body mass index, diet, daily fluid intake per kilogram of body weight, physiological indicators (blood pressure, pulse rate, body temperature, axillary skin temperature, humidity, total body water, body water rate, internal liquid rate, external solution rate, blood components, intraoral water amount, and salivary components), and the indoor environment (room temperature and humidity). We then performed a statistical analysis to compare the boundary zone group with the normal range group. After adjusting for age and the daily fluid intake per kilogram of body weight (<25 ml/≥25 ml), we performed a logistic regression analysis (the boundary zone group was used as an independent variable) for variables that had significance levels of <0.05 (except for blood components). The univariate analysis revealed significant differences in the following parameters: the serum sodium, chloride, and creatinine levels; the blood sugar level; the urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio; the axillary skin temperature; and room humidity. Only the axillary skin temperature showed a significant association in the final model of the logistic

  16. Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Testik, F. Y.; Barros, Ana P.; Bilven, Francis L.

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

  17. Dynamics of bacterial assemblages and removal of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in oil-contaminated coastal marine sediments subjected to contrasted oxygen regimes.

    PubMed

    Militon, Cécile; Jézéquel, Ronan; Gilbert, Franck; Corsellis, Yannick; Sylvi, Léa; Cravo-Laureau, Cristiana; Duran, Robert; Cuny, Philippe

    2015-10-01

    To study the impact of oxygen regimes on the removal of polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in oil-spill-affected coastal marine sediments, we used a thin-layer incubation method to ensure that the incubated sediment was fully oxic, anoxic, or was influenced by oxic-anoxic switches without sediment stirring. Hydrocarbon content and microbial assemblages were followed during 60 days to determine PAH degradation kinetics and microbial community dynamics according to the oxygenation regimes. The highest PAH removal, with 69 % reduction, was obtained at the end of the experiment under oxic conditions, whereas weaker removals were obtained under oscillating and anoxic conditions (18 and 12 %, respectively). Bacterial community structure during the experiment was determined using a dual 16S rRNA genes/16S rRNA transcripts approach, allowing the characterization of metabolically active bacteria responsible for the functioning of the bacterial community in the contaminated sediment. The shift of the metabolically active bacterial communities showed that the selection of first responders belonged to Pseudomonas spp. and Labrenzia sp. and included an unidentified Deltaproteobacteria-irrespective of the oxygen regime-followed by the selection of late responders adapted to the oxygen regime. A novel unaffiliated phylotype (B38) was highly active during the last stage of the experiment, at which time, the low-molecular-weight (LMW) PAH biodegradation rates were significant for permanent oxic- and oxygen-oscillating conditions, suggesting that this novel phylotype plays an active role during the restoration phase of the studied ecosystem.

  18. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication. [elliptical contacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.; Dowson, D.

    1983-01-01

    Mathematical formulas are presented which express the dimensionless minimum film thickness for the four lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts: isoviscous-rigid regime; piezoviscous-rigid regime; isoviscous-elastic regime; and piezoviscous-elastic regime. The relative importance of pressure on elastic distortion and lubricant viscosity is the factor that distinguishes these regimes for a given conjunction geometry. In addition, these equations were used to develop maps of the lubrication regimes by plotting film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the dimensionless viscosity and elasticity parameters for three values of the ellipticity parameter. These results present a complete theoretical film thickness parameter solution for elliptical constants in the four lubrication regimes. The results are particularly useful in initial investigations of many practical lubrication problems involving elliptical conjunctions.

  19. Shifting schedules: the health effects of reorganizing shift work.

    PubMed

    Bambra, Clare L; Whitehead, Margaret M; Sowden, Amanda J; Akers, Joanne; Petticrew, Mark P

    2008-05-01

    Approximately one fifth of workers are engaged in some kind of shift work. The harmful effects of shift work on the health and work-life balance of employees are well known. A range of organizational interventions has been suggested to address these negative effects. This study undertook the systematic review (following Quality Of Reporting Of Meta [QUORUM] analyses guidelines) of experimental and quasi-experimental studies, from any country (in any language) that evaluated the effects on health and work-life balance of organizational-level interventions that redesign shift work schedules. Twenty-seven electronic databases (medical, social science, economic) were searched. Data extraction and quality appraisal were carried out by two independent reviewers. Narrative synthesis was performed. The review was conducted between October 2005 and November 2006. Twenty-six studies were found relating to a variety of organizational interventions. No one type of intervention was found to be consistently harmful to workers. However, three types were found to have beneficial effects on health and work-life balance: (1) switching from slow to fast rotation, (2) changing from backward to forward rotation, and (3) self-scheduling of shifts. Improvements were usually at little or no direct organizational cost. However, there were concerns about the generalizability of the evidence, and no studies reported on impacts on health inequalities. This review reinforces the findings of epidemiologic and laboratory-based research by suggesting that certain organizational-level interventions can improve the health of shift workers, their work-life balance, or both. This evidence could be useful when designing interventions to improve the experience of shift work.

  20. Interpreting MAD within multiple accretion regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mocz, Philip; Guo, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of accreting black holes in the radiatively inefficient regime show that systems with sufficient magnetic poloidal flux become magnetically arrested disc (MAD) systems, with a well-defined relationship between the magnetic flux and the mass accretion rate. Recently, Zamaninasab et al. report that the jet magnetic flux and accretion disc luminosity are tightly correlated over 7 orders of magnitude for a sample of 76 radio-loud active galaxies, concluding that the data are explained by the MAD mode of accretion. Their analysis assumes radiatively efficient accretion, and their sample consists primarily of radiatively efficient sources, while GRMHD simulations of MAD thus far have been carried out in the radiatively inefficient regime. We propose a model to interpret MAD systems in the context of multiple accretion regimes, and apply it to the sample in Zamaninasab et al., along with additional radiatively inefficient sources from archival data. We show that most of the radiatively inefficient radio-loud galaxies are consistent with being MAD systems. Assuming the MAD relationship found in radiatively inefficient simulations holds at other accretion regimes, a significant fraction of our sample can be candidates for MAD systems. Future GRMHD simulations have yet to verify the validity of this assumption.

  1. Going Lean: Impending Money Woes Force Tough Choices, Forecast Fundamental Shift in Community College Funding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joch, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The numbers were already bad, and they keep getting worse, for the Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD). Given the weak economy, administrators planned for a 5 percent reduction in state funding in the 2010-11 academic year. The actual reduction ballooned to more than 7.5 percent, an additional $13 million that DCCCD would be forced to…

  2. Iranian Regime Reform: Opportunities and Consequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    Others, such as Ahmad Jannati, the powerful Guardian Council secretary, stated, “post-election turmoil prevented us from criticizing Ahmadinejad’s...government, but it does not mean we are without criticism . . . How long must we keep silent?”95 Ahmadinejad appears to lack a solid power base...East Roundtable ed. 10 vol 8, (April 22, 2010). 35 are critical of the regime].”102 Those who have spoken out against the regime, such as

  3. Atmospheric turbulence compensation with laser phase shifting interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rabien, S.; Eisenhauer, F.; Genzel, R.; Davies, R. I.; Ott, T.

    2006-04-01

    Laser guide stars with adaptive optics allow astronomical image correction in the absence of a natural guide star. Single guide star systems with a star created in the earth's sodium layer can be used to correct the wavefront in the near infrared spectral regime for 8-m class telescopes. For possible future telescopes of larger sizes, or for correction at shorter wavelengths, the use of a single guide star is ultimately limited by focal anisoplanatism that arises from the finite height of the guide star. To overcome this limitation we propose to overlap coherently pulsed laser beams that are expanded over the full aperture of the telescope, traveling upwards along the same path which light from the astronomical object travels downwards. Imaging the scattered light from the resultant interference pattern with a camera gated to a certain height above the telescope, and using phase shifting interferometry we have found a method to retrieve the local wavefront gradients. By sensing the backscattered light from two different heights, one can fully remove the cone effect, which can otherwise be a serious handicap to the use of laser guide stars at shorter wavelengths or on larger telescopes. Using two laser beams multiconjugate correction is possible, resulting in larger corrected fields. With a proper choice of laser, wavefront correction could be expanded to the visible regime and, due to the lack of a cone effect, the method is applicable to any size of telescope. Finally the position of the laser spot could be imaged from the side of the main telescope against a bright background star to retrieve tip-tilt information, which would greatly improve the sky coverage of the system.

  4. In-situ and Land-Based Remote Sensing of River Inlets and Their Interaction with Coastal Waters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    CDIP buoy 190 was reporting the impending waves having a 1 meter significant wave height, 7.7s peak period, from 129 degrees. Using the X-Band...spectral energy along a shifted dispersion relationship curve. In deep water, the waves reported by CDIP buoy 190 would have a wavenumber of 0.068 rad/m

  5. O-regime dynamics and modeling in Tore Supra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, F.; Giruzzi, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Udintsev, V. S.; Artaud, J. F.; Barana, O.; Dumont, R.; Mazon, D.; Ségui, J.-L.

    2009-06-01

    The regime of nonlinear temperature oscillations (O-regime), characteristic of noninductive discharges on Tore Supra [Équipe Tore Supra, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research, Nice, France, 1988 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1989), Vol. 1, p. 9], is investigated in its triggering and suppressing mechanism. This regime can be described by two nonlinearly coupled equations for the current density j(r ) and the electron temperature Te(r) where the equation coefficients are functions of j and Te themselves. Both the integrated modeling code CRONOS [V. Basiuk et al., Nucl. Fusion 43, 822 (2003)] and a two-patch predator-prey system with diffusion and noise have been used and results have been compared to the experimental observations of the O-regime. A database of discharges is analyzed which features monotonic, flat, and reversed safety factor (q) profiles in order to characterize the action of external actuators on the regime dynamics with the widest generality. Electron cyclotron current drive and neutral beam injections have been used in order to induce localized perturbations in the total current profile j(r ) as well as to change the plasma confinement conditions in the central region. Magnetic shear perturbations and modifications of the heat transport turn out to be the central parameters governing the dynamics of the O-regime.

  6. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.

    1980-01-01

    Film thickness equations are provided for four fluid-film lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts. These regimes are isoviscous-rigid; viscous-rigid; elastohydrodynamic lubrication of low-elastic-modulus materials (soft EHL), or isoviscous-elastic; and elastohydrodynamic lubrication of high-elastic-modulus materials (hard EHL), or viscous-elastic. The influence or lack of influence of elastic and viscous effects is the factor that distinguishes these regimes. The results are presented as a map of the lubrication regimes, with film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the viscosity and elasticity for three values of the ellipticity parameter.

  7. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  8. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Laurie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; hide

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Mechanisms responsible for the ocular structural and functional changes that characterize the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (ICP) syndrome (VIIP) are unclear, but hypothesized to be secondary to the cephalad fluid shift experienced in spaceflight. This study will relate the fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight with VIIP symptoms. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, can be predicted preflight with acute hemodynamic manipulations, and also if lower body negative pressure (LBNP) can reverse the VIIP effects. METHODS: Physiologic variables will be examined pre-, in- and post-flight in 10 International Space Station crewmembers including: fluid compartmentalization (D2O and NaBr dilution); interstitial tissue thickness (ultrasound); vascular dimensions and dynamics (ultrasound and MRI (including cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility)); ocular measures (optical coherence tomography, intraocular pressure, ultrasound); and ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight measures will be assessed while upright, supine and during 15 deg head-down tilt (HDT). In-flight measures will occur early and late during 6 or 12 month missions. LBNP will be evaluated as a countermeasure during HDT and during spaceflight. RESULTS: The first two crewmembers are in the preflight testing phase. Preliminary results characterize the acute fluid shifts experienced from upright, to supine and HDT postures (increased stroke volume, jugular dimensions and measures of ICP) which are reversed with 25 millimeters Hg LBNP. DISCUSSION: Initial results indicate that acute cephalad fluid shifts may be related to VIIP symptoms, but also may be reversible by LBNP. The effect of a chronic fluid shift has yet to be evaluated. Learning Objectives: Current spaceflight VIIP research is described

  9. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes

    PubMed Central

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2018-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations. PMID:29619289

  10. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes.

    PubMed

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2016-03-16

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  11. Radiative Effects of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dong Min; Kato, Seiji

    2016-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  12. MOND as a regime of quantum gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolin, Lee

    2017-10-01

    We propose that there is a regime of quantum gravity phenomena, for the case that the cosmological constant is small and positive, which concerns physics at temperatures below the de Sitter temperature, or length scales larger than the horizon. We observe that the standard form of the equivalence principle does not apply in this regime; we consider instead that a weakened form of the equivalence principle might hold in which the ratio of gravitational to inertial mass is a function of environmental parameters. We consider possible principles to determine that function. These lead to behavior that, in the limit of ℏ→0 and c →∞ , reproduces the modifications of Newtonian dynamics first proposed by Milgrom. Thus modified newtonian dynamics is elucidated as coding the physics of a novel regime of quantum gravity phenomena. We propose also an effective description of this regime in terms of a bimetric theory, valid in the approximation where the metric is static. This predicts a new effect, which modifies gravity for radial motions.

  13. Dune growth under multidirectional wind regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadal, C.; Rozier, O.; Claudin, P.; Courrech Du Pont, S.; Narteau, C.

    2017-12-01

    Under unidirectional wind regimes, flat sand beds become unstable to produce periodic linear dunes, commonly called transverse dunes because their main ridges are oriented perpendicular to the air flow. In areas of low sediment availability, the same interactions between flow, transport and topography produce barchan dunes, isolated sand-pile migrating over long distances with a characteristic crescentic shape. For the last fifteen years, barchan dunes and the instability at the origin of transverse dunes have been the subject of numerous studies that have identified a set of characteristic length and time scales with respect to the physical properties of both grains and fluid. This is not the case for dunes developing under multidirectional wind regimes. Under these conditions, dune orientation is measured with respect to the direction of the resultant sand flux. Depending on the wind regime, dunes do not always line up perpendicularly to the resultant sand flux, but can also be at an oblique angle or even parallel to it. These oblique and longitudinal dunes are ubiquitous in all deserts on Earth and planetary bodies because of the seasonal variability of wind orientation. They are however poorly constrained by observations and there is still no complete theoretical framework providing a description of their orientation and initial wavelength. Here, we extend the linear stability analysis of a flat sand of bed done in two dimensions for a unidirectional flow to three dimensions and multidirectional flow regimes. We are able to recover transitions from transverse to oblique or longitudinal dune patterns according to changes in wind regimes. We besides give a prediction for the initial dune wavelength. Our results compare well to previous theory of dune orientation and to field, experimental and numerical data.

  14. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  15. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stechmann, Samuel; Hottovy, Scott

    2017-11-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes - open versus closed cells - fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells (POCs) as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. Similar viewpoints of deep convection and self-organized criticality will also be discussed. With these new conceptual viewpoints, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions. The research of S.N.S. is partially supported by a Sloan Research Fellowship, ONR Young Investigator Award N00014-12-1-0744, and ONR MURI Grant N00014-12-1-0912.

  16. Modeling the Complex Impacts of Timber Harvests to Find Optimal Management Regimes for Amazon Tidal Floodplain Forests

    PubMed Central

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Cropper, Wendell P.; Zarin, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine

  17. Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Cropper, Wendell P.; Zarin, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine

  18. New results in gravity dependent two-phase flow regime mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurwitz, Cable; Best, Frederick

    2002-01-01

    Accurate prediction of thermal-hydraulic parameters, such as the spatial gas/liquid orientation or flow regime, is required for implementation of two-phase systems. Although many flow regime transition models exist, accurate determination of both annular and slug regime boundaries is not well defined especially at lower flow rates. Furthermore, models typically indicate the regime as a sharp transition where data may indicate a transition space. Texas A&M has flown in excess of 35 flights aboard the NASA KC-135 aircraft with a unique two-phase package. These flights have produced a significant database of gravity dependent two-phase data including visual observations for flow regime identification. Two-phase flow tests conducted during recent zero-g flights have added to the flow regime database and are shown in this paper with comparisons to selected transition models. .

  19. Effects of precipitation regime and soil nitrogen on leaf traits in seasonally dry tropical forests of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Roa-Fuentes, Lilia L; Templer, Pamela H; Campo, Julio

    2015-10-01

    Leaf traits are closely associated with nutrient use by plants and can be utilized as a proxy for nutrient cycling processes. However, open questions remain, in particular regarding the variability of leaf traits within and across seasonally dry tropical forests. To address this, we considered six leaf traits (specific area, thickness, dry matter content, N content, P content and natural abundance (15)N) of four co-occurring tree species (two that are not associated with N2-fixing bacteria and two that are associated with N2-fixing bacteria) and net N mineralization rates and inorganic N concentrations along a precipitation gradient (537-1036 mm per year) in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Specifically we sought to test the hypothesis that leaf traits of dominant plant species shift along a precipitation gradient, but are affected by soil N cycling. Although variation among different species within each site explains some leaf trait variation, there is also a high level of variability across sites, suggesting that factors other than precipitation regime more strongly influence leaf traits. Principal component analyses indicated that across sites and tree species, covariation in leaf traits is an indicator of soil N availability. Patterns of natural abundance (15)N in foliage and foliage minus soil suggest that variation in precipitation regime drives a shift in plant N acquisition and the openness of the N cycle. Overall, our study shows that both plant species and site are important determinants of leaf traits, and that the leaf trait spectrum is correlated with soil N cycling.

  20. Stabilized soliton self-frequency shift and 0.1- PHz sideband generation in a photonic-crystal fiber with an air-hole-modified core.

    PubMed

    Liu, Bo-Wen; Hu, Ming-Lie; Fang, Xiao-Hui; Li, Yan-Feng; Chai, Lu; Wang, Ching-Yue; Tong, Weijun; Luo, Jie; Voronin, Aleksandr A; Zheltikov, Aleksei M

    2008-09-15

    Fiber dispersion and nonlinearity management strategy based on a modification of a photonic-crystal fiber (PCF) core with an air hole is shown to facilitate optimization of PCF components for a stable soliton frequency shift and subpetahertz sideband generation through four-wave mixing. Spectral recoil of an optical soliton by a red-shifted dispersive wave, generated through a soliton instability induced by high-order fiber dispersion, is shown to stabilize the soliton self-frequency shift in a highly nonlinear PCF with an air-hole-modified core relative to pump power variations. A fiber with a 2.3-microm-diameter core modified with a 0.9-microm-diameter air hole is used to demonstrate a robust soliton self-frequency shift of unamplified 50-fs Ti: sapphire laser pulses to a central wavelength of about 960 nm, which remains insensitive to variations in the pump pulse energy within the range from 60 to at least 100 pJ. In this regime of frequency shifting, intense high- and low-frequency branches of dispersive wave radiation are simultaneously observed in the spectrum of PCF output. An air-hole-modified-core PCF with appropriate dispersion and nonlinearity parameters is shown to provide efficient four-wave mixing, giving rise to Stokes and anti-Stokes sidebands whose frequency shift relative to the pump wavelength falls within the subpetahertz range, thus offering an attractive source for nonlinear Raman microspectroscopy.

  1. Shifting Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  2. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests.

    PubMed

    Brubaker, Linda B; Higuera, Philip E; Rupp, T Scott; Olson, Mark A; Anderson, Patricia M; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2009-07-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecologica model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR

  3. Assessing the Institution of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Toomey, Christopher

    2010-05-14

    The nuclear nonproliferation regime is facing a crisis of effectiveness. During the Cold War, the regime was relatively effective in stemming the proliferation of nuclear weapons and building an institutional structure that could, under certain conditions, ensure continued success. However, in the evolving global context, the traditional approaches are becoming less appropriate. Globalization has introduced new sets of stresses on the nonproliferation regime, such as the rise of non-state actors, broadening extensity and intensity of supply chains, and the multipolarization of power. This evolving global context demands an analytical and political flexibility in order to meet future threats. Current institutionalmore » capabilities established during the Cold War are now insufficient to meet the nonproliferation regime’s current and future needs. The research was based on information gathered through interviews and reviews of the relevant literature, and two dominant themes emerged. First, that human security should be integrated into the regime to account for the rise of non-state actors and networked violence. Second, confidence in the regime’s overall effectiveness has eroded at a time where verification-based confidence is becoming more essential. The research postulates that a critical analysis of the regime that fully utilizes institutional theory, with its focus on rules, normative structures, and procedures will be essential to adapting the regime to the current global context, building mechanisms for generating trust, creating better enforcement, and providing flexibility for the future.« less

  4. Qubit-flip-induced cavity mode squeezing in the strong dispersive regime of the quantum Rabi model

    PubMed Central

    Joshi, Chaitanya; Irish, Elinor K.; Spiller, Timothy P.

    2017-01-01

    Squeezed states of light are a set of nonclassical states in which the quantum fluctuations of one quadrature component are reduced below the standard quantum limit. With less noise than the best stabilised laser sources, squeezed light is a key resource in the field of quantum technologies and has already improved sensing capabilities in areas ranging from gravitational wave detection to biomedical applications. In this work we propose a novel technique for generating squeezed states of a confined light field strongly coupled to a two-level system, or qubit, in the dispersive regime. Utilising the dispersive energy shift caused by the interaction, control of the qubit state produces a time-dependent change in the frequency of the light field. An appropriately timed sequence of sudden frequency changes reduces the quantum noise fluctuations in one quadrature of the field well below the standard quantum limit. The degree of squeezing and the time of generation are directly controlled by the number of frequency shifts applied. Even in the presence of realistic noise and imperfections, our protocol promises to be capable of generating a useful degree of squeezing with present experimental capabilities. PMID:28358025

  5. Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

    2016-11-29

    Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

  6. State shift in Deccan volcanism at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, possibly induced by impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.; Richards, Mark A.; Self, Stephen; Vanderkluysen, Loÿc; Pande, Kanchan

    2015-10-01

    Bolide impact and flood volcanism compete as leading candidates for the cause of terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions. High-precision 40Ar/39Ar data indicate that these two mechanisms may be genetically related, and neither can be considered in isolation. The existing Deccan Traps magmatic system underwent a state shift approximately coincident with the Chicxulub impact and the terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions, after which ~70% of the Traps' total volume was extruded in more massive and more episodic eruptions. Initiation of this new regime occurred within ~50,000 years of the impact, which is consistent with transient effects of impact-induced seismic energy. Postextinction recovery of marine ecosystems was probably suppressed until after the accelerated volcanism waned.

  7. Time-domain Surveys and Data Shift: Case Study at the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebbapragada, Umaa; Bue, Brian; Wozniak, Przemyslaw R.

    2015-01-01

    Next generation time-domain surveys are susceptible to the problem of data shift that is caused by upgrades to data processing pipelines and instruments. Data shift degrades the performance of automated machine learning classifiers that vet detections and classify source types because fundamental assumptions are violated when classifiers are built in one data regime but are deployed on data from another. This issue is not currently discussed within the astronomical community, but will be increasingly pressing over the next decade with the advent of new time domain surveys.We look at the problem of data shift that was caused by a data pipeline upgrade when the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) succeeded the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) in January 2013. iPTF relies upon machine-learned Real-Bogus classifiers to vet sources extracted from subtracted images on a scale of zero to one where zero indicates a bogus (image artifact) and one indicates a real astronomical transient, with the overwhelming majority of candidates are scored as bogus. An effective Real-Bogus system filters all but the most promising candidates, which are presented to human scanners who make decisions about triggering follow up assets.The Real-Bogus systems currently in operation at iPTF (RB4 and RB5) solve the data shift problem. The statistical models of RB4 and RB5 were built from the ground up using examples from iPTF alone, whereas an older system, RB2, was built using PTF data, but was deployed after iPTF launched. We discuss the machine learning assumptions that are violated when a system is trained on one domain (PTF) but deployed on another (iPTF) that experiences data shift. We provide illustrative examples of data parameters and statistics that experienced shift. Finally, we show results comparing the three systems in operation, demonstrating that systems that solve domain shift (RB4 and RB5) are superior to those that don't (RB2).Research described in this abstract was

  8. Work shift duration: a review comparing eight hour and 12 hour shift systems.

    PubMed

    Smith, L; Folkard, S; Tucker, P; Macdonald, I

    1998-04-01

    Shiftwork is now a major feature of working life across a broad range of industries. The features of the shift systems operated can impact on the wellbeing, performance, and sleep of shiftworkers. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on one major characteristic of shift rotas-namely, shift duration. Evidence comparing the relative effects of eight hour and 12 hour shifts on fatigue and job performance, safety, sleep, and physical and psychological health are considered. At the organisational level, factors such as the mode of system implementation, attitudes towards shift rotas, sickness absence and turnover, overtime, and moonlighting are discussed. Manual and electronic searches of the shiftwork research literature were conducted to obtain information on comparisons between eight hour and 12 hour shifts. The research findings are largely equivocal. The bulk of the evidence suggests few differences between eight and 12 hour shifts in the way they affect people. There may even be advantages to 12 hour shifts in terms of lower stress levels, better physical and psychological wellbeing, improved durations and quality of off duty sleep as well as improvements in family relations. On the negative side, the main concerns are fatigue and safety. It is noted that a 12 hour shift does not equate with being active for only 12 hours. There can be considerable extension of the person's time awake either side of the shift. However, the effects of longer term exposure to extended work days have been relatively uncharted in any systematic way. Longitudinal comparative research into the chronic impact of the compressed working week is needed.

  9. Insomnia in shift work.

    PubMed

    Vallières, Annie; Azaiez, Aïda; Moreau, Vincent; LeBlanc, Mélanie; Morin, Charles M

    2014-12-01

    Shift work disorder involves insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness associated with the work schedule. The present study examined the impact of insomnia on the perceived physical and psychological health of adults working on night and rotating shift schedules compared to day workers. A total of 418 adults (51% women, mean age 41.4 years), including 51 night workers, 158 rotating shift workers, and 209 day workers were selected from an epidemiological study. An algorithm was used to classify each participant of the two groups (working night or rotating shifts) according to the presence or absence of insomnia symptoms. Each of these individuals was paired with a day worker according to gender, age, and income. Participants completed several questionnaires measuring sleep, health, and psychological variables. Night and rotating shift workers with insomnia presented a sleep profile similar to that of day workers with insomnia. Sleep time was more strongly related to insomnia than to shift work per se. Participants with insomnia in the three groups complained of anxiety, depression, and fatigue, and reported consuming equal amounts of sleep-aid medication. Insomnia also contributed to chronic pain and otorhinolaryngology problems, especially among rotating shift workers. Work productivity and absenteeism were more strongly related to insomnia. The present study highlights insomnia as an important component of the sleep difficulties experienced by shift workers. Insomnia may exacerbate certain physical and mental health problems of shift workers, and impair their quality of life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    than taller conspecifics. Further, irrespective of differences in drought sensitivity, dead trees showed lower radial-growth rates than surviving trees from 10 to 20 years prior to tree death. Contrastingly, differences in wood anatomical traits (vessel lumen size, vessel density) between dead and living trees were not always significant, being species-dependent. Our findings indicate that: (i) tree height is a proxy of the probability of drought-induced death, and (ii) recent growth trends constitute valuable early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oak species.

  11. Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho

    2017-07-01

    Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

  12. Outcome regimes of binary raindrop collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Testik, Firat Y.

    2009-11-01

    This study delineates the physical conditions that are responsible for the occurrence of main outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and breakup) for binary drop collisions with a precipitation microphysics perspective. Physical considerations based on the collision kinetic energy and the surface energies of the colliding drops lead to the development of a theoretical regime diagram for the drop/raindrop collision outcomes in the We- p plane ( We — Weber number, p — raindrop diameter ratio). This theoretical regime diagram is supported by laboratory experimental observations of drop collisions using high-speed imaging. Results of this fundamental study bring in new insights into the quantitative understanding of drop dynamics, applications of which extend beyond precipitation microphysics. In particular, results of this drop collision study are expected to give impetus to the physics-based dynamic modeling of the drop size distributions that is essential for various typical modern engineering applications, including numerical modeling of evolution of raindrop size distribution in rain shaft.

  13. Effects of extended work shifts and shift work on patient safety, productivity, and employee health.

    PubMed

    Keller, Simone M

    2009-12-01

    It is estimated 1.3 million health care errors occur each year and of those errors 48,000 to 98,000 result in the deaths of patients (Barger et al., 2006). Errors occur for a variety of reasons, including the effects of extended work hours and shift work. The need for around-the-clock staff coverage has resulted in creative ways to maintain quality patient care, keep health care errors or adverse events to a minimum, and still meet the needs of the organization. One way organizations have attempted to alleviate staff shortages is to create extended work shifts. Instead of the standard 8-hour shift, workers are now working 10, 12, 16, or more hours to provide continuous patient care. Although literature does support these staffing patterns, it cannot be denied that shifts beyond the traditional 8 hours increase staff fatigue, health care errors, and adverse events and outcomes and decrease alertness and productivity. This article includes a review of current literature on shift work, the definition of shift work, error rates and adverse outcomes related to shift work, health effects on shift workers, shift work effects on older workers, recommended optimal shift length, positive and negative effects of shift work on the shift worker, hazards associated with driving after extended shifts, and implications for occupational health nurses. Copyright 2009, SLACK Incorporated.

  14. Water use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiskel, Peter K.; Vogel, Richard M.; Steeves, Peter A.; Zarriello, Philip J.; Desimone, Leslie A.; Ries, Kernell G.

    2007-01-01

    The sustainability of human water use practices is a rapidly growing concern in the United States and around the world. To better characterize direct human interaction with hydrologic systems (stream basins and aquifers), we introduce the concept of the water use regime. Unlike scalar indicators of anthropogenic hydrologic stress in the literature, the water use regime is a two‐dimensional, vector indicator that can be depicted on simple x‐y plots of normalized human withdrawals (hout) versus normalized human return flows (hin). Four end‐member regimes, natural‐flow‐dominated (undeveloped), human‐flow‐dominated (churned), withdrawal‐dominated (depleted), and return‐flow‐dominated (surcharged), are defined in relation to limiting values of hout and hin. For illustration, the water use regimes of 19 diverse hydrologic systems are plotted and interpreted. Several of these systems, including the Yellow River Basin, China, and the California Central Valley Aquifer, are shown to approach particular end‐member regimes. Spatial and temporal regime variations, both seasonal and long‐term, are depicted. Practical issues of data availability and regime uncertainty are addressed in relation to the statistical properties of the ratio estimators hout and hin. The water use regime is shown to be a useful tool for comparative water resources assessment and for describing both historic and alternative future pathways of water resource development at a range of scales.

  15. Congenital band syndrome with pseudarthrosis of the radius and ulna and impending vascular compromise: a case report.

    PubMed

    Ho, Christine A; Richards, B Stephens; Ezaki, Marybeth

    2014-09-01

    Although amniotic band syndrome is relatively rare, reports of pseudarthrosis in conjunction with amniotic band syndrome are even rarer, as are reports of impending vascular compromise in the neonatal period. Careful serial examinations and timely surgical intervention can successfully avoid the catastrophic event of limb loss. We report on a case of upper extremity amniotic band syndrome with pseudarthrosis of the radius and ulna that was complicated by vascular compromise in a neonate. Chart and radiographic data for this single case were reviewed and reported retrospectively. A 1-day-old neonate born at 28 3/7 weeks of gestational age was transferred to our institution for increased swelling to the forearm distal to a congenital band associated with an underlying radius and ulna pseudarthrosis. Although the forearm and hand were soft and viable initially, severe edema and swelling occurred after fluid resuscitation, and on the fourth day of life, the patient underwent simple band releases at bedside with 2 longitudinal incisions over the radius and ulna. Circulation was restored, and the pseudarthrosis healed with no further surgical intervention. Successful delayed reconstruction of the band with Z-plasties was performed when the baby was 7 months of age. In this case, a relatively simple, straightforward procedure that is familiar to most pediatric orthopaedists salvaged a compromised neonatal limb with amniotic band syndrome and allowed healing of a pseudarthrosis, allowing more complex reconstruction to be performed in a delayed, elective manner. Careful observation is necessary in the neonatal period of the baby with a severe band; a viable, well-perfused, compressible extremity may still be at risk.

  16. Impending Crisis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herman, Roger E.; Olivo, Thomas G.; Gioia, Joyce L.

    Filled with evidence and advice for corporate leaders in for-profit, not-for-profit, governmental, and education organizations, this book addresses how to evaluate one's organization's vulnerability and take action. An introduction is followed by a section on the new roles of the chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial…

  17. Shift from ecosystem P to N limitation at precipitation gradient in tropical dry forests at Yucatan, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campo, Julio

    2016-09-01

    The effect of precipitation regime on N and P cycles in tropical forests is poorly understood, despite global climate models project total precipitation reductions during the 21st Century. I investigated the influence of variation in annual precipitation (1240-642 mm yr-1) on N and P intra-system cycling along a precipitation regime gradient at Yucatan including 12 mature, tropical dry forests (TDFs) growing under otherwise similar conditions (similar annual temperature, rainfall seasonality and geological substrate). I analyzed N and P storage and turnover in the forest floor and mineral soil and explored the dependence of these processes and pools on precipitation level. The study findings indicate that with decreasing precipitation the litterfall decreases slightly (10%), while nutrient use efficiency increases by 20% for N, and by 40% for P. Decomposition rate and nutrient release was smallest in the dry extremity of precipitation regime. The difference between N and P turnover times in the forest floor and in organic matter indicates that different nutrients control the ecosystem function across the precipitation gradient. The data from this study reveals a pattern of limitation shifting from P towards N with decreasing annual precipitation. I suggest that the long-term consequences of the expected decrease in precipitation in many tropical dry regions would changes N and P supply could have long-term negative effects on primary productivity and future carbon storage in TDFs.

  18. Major hydrological regime change along the semiarid western coast of South America during the early Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortega, Cristina; Vargas, Gabriel; Rutllant, José A.; Jackson, Donald; Méndez, César

    2012-11-01

    Water availability in the semiarid western coast of Chile (30-32°S) is conditioned by high interannual precipitation variability, reflecting the transition between arid subtropical and moist mid-latitude climates in the Southeastern Pacific Ocean. A paleoclimate reconstruction based on the latest Pleistocene-Holocene geological record from the Quebrada Santa Julia archeological site in Chile (31°50'S) and on modern meteorological mechanisms producing alluvial episodes in this region indicates a major change in the rainfall regime shortly after 8600 cal yr BP. This, together with other paleoclimate proxies along the west coast of South America (34°-14°S), suggests La Niña-like conditions 13,000-8600 cal yr BP. Based on sedimentological and geomorphologic evidence, we hypothesized that the absence of heavy rainfall events in northern Chile and the new hydrological regime that prevailed ca. 8600-5700 cal yr BP in north-central Chile resulted from an increase in the large-scale westerly flow over central Chile, as expected in near-neutral ENSO conditions. This atmospheric circulation anomaly is compatible with an equatorward shift of the influence of the Southeast Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone relative to the early Holocene, prior to the onset of modern ENSO variability.

  19. An Examination of the Nature of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji; Huffman, George J.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

  20. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  1. Work shift duration: a review comparing eight hour and 12 hour shift systems

    PubMed Central

    Smith, L.; Folkard, S.; Tucker, P.; Macdonald, I.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Shiftwork is now a major feature of working life across a broad range of industries. The features of the shift systems operated can impact on the wellbeing, performance, and sleep of shiftworkers. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on one major characteristic of shift rotas-namely, shift duration. Evidence comparing the relative effects of eight hour and 12 hour shifts on fatigue and job performance, safety, sleep, and physical and psychological health are considered. At the organisational level, factors such as the mode of system implementation, attitudes towards shift rotas, sickness absence and turnover, overtime, and moonlighting are discussed. METHODS: Manual and electronic searches of the shiftwork research literature were conducted to obtain information on comparisons between eight hour and 12 hour shifts. RESULTS: The research findings are largely equivocal. The bulk of the evidence suggests few differences between eight and 12 hour shifts in the way they affect people. There may even be advantages to 12 hour shifts in terms of lower stress levels, better physical and psychological wellbeing, improved durations and quality of off duty sleep as well as improvements in family relations. On the negative side, the main concerns are fatigue and safety. It is noted that a 12 hour shift does not equate with being active for only 12 hours. CONCLUSIONS: There can be considerable extension of the person's time awake either side of the shift. However, the effects of longer term exposure to extended work days have been relatively uncharted in any systematic way. Longitudinal comparative research into the chronic impact of the compressed working week is needed.   PMID:9624275

  2. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    PubMed Central

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-01-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics. PMID:27761005

  3. Transport Regimes Spanning Magnetization-Coupling Phase Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Tiwari, Sanat; Daligault, Jerome

    2017-10-01

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed. The results suggest that magnetic fields may be used to assist ultracold neutral plasma experiments to reach regimes of stronger electron coupling by reducing heating of electrons in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field.. By constraining electron motion along the direction of the magnetic field, the overall electron temperature is reduced nearly by a factor of three. A large temperature anisotropy develops as a result, which can be maintained for a long time in the regime of high electron magnetization. Work supported by LDRD project 20150520ER at LANL, AFOSR FA9550-16-1-0221 and US DOE Award DE-SC00161.

  4. The Natural History of the South Hills Crossbill in Relation to Its Impending Extinction.

    PubMed

    Benkman, Craig W

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly, the species that we discover will be uncommon, area restricted, and vulnerable to extinction. I describe the natural history of a newly discovered seed-eating finch from the Rocky Mountain region, the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex). It relies on seeds in the closed cones of the fire-adapted Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) and is found only in the higher elevations of two small mountain ranges in southern Idaho. Here crossbills and pine are engaged in a coevolutionary arms race. Although most of the seeds remain secured within the cones for decades until the heat of a stand-replacing fire causes the cone scales to separate, seeds become accessible to crossbills slowly as cones weather and gaps form between some of the scales. However, hot days (≥32°C), especially four or more hot days, seem to mimic the effect of fire, apparently causing the immediate release of a fraction of the seeds. Such events caused a 20% annual decline in crossbills that lasted up to 4 years and an 80% decline in the population between 2003 and 2011. This is an example of a novel trophic mismatch between a consumer and its resource caused by a shift in the phenology of the resource arising from climate change. Not only do these phenological shifts have the potential to cause seed consumers to decline, these shifts are also likely to cause reduced recruitment of the plants. The South Hills crossbill is especially vulnerable and will likely go extinct this century before lodgepole pine is extirpated from the South Hills.

  5. Wind regimes and their relation to synoptic variables using self-organizing maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkovic, Sigalit

    2018-01-01

    This study exemplifies the ability of the self-organizing maps (SOM) method to directly define well known wind regimes over Israel during the entire year, except summer period, at 12:00 UTC. This procedure may be applied at other hours and is highly relevant to future automatic climatological analysis and applications. The investigation is performed by analysing surface wind measurements from 53 Israel Meteorological Service stations. The relation between the synoptic variables and the wind regimes is revealed from the averages of ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalysis variables for each SOM wind regime. The inspection of wind regimes and their average geopotential anomalies has shown that wind regimes relate to the gradient of the pressure anomalies, rather than to the specific isobars pattern. Two main wind regimes - strong western and the strong eastern or northern - are well known over this region. The frequencies of the regimes according to seasons is verified. Strong eastern regimes are dominant during winter, while strong western regimes are frequent in all seasons.

  6. [The productivity of female shift workers].

    PubMed

    Vidacek, S; Radosević-Vidacek, B; Kaliterna, L; Prizmić, Z

    1990-12-01

    The productivity of female shift workers, working on a weekly rotating three-shift system, was examined. The afternoon shift was found to be the most productive and the night shift the least productive one. The greatest difference in productivity between shifts was found in the first two days of the week, when the productivity on night shift was significantly lower than that on the other two shifts. From the third day on there were no longer significant differences in productivity between shifts. The most productive and the least productive workers on night shift did not significantly differ in extraversion or in sleep duration after the night shift. Family responsibility was found to be associated with the duration of sleep after the night shift: married women slept significantly shorter after the night shift than unmarried women. However, this difference in sleep duration was not associated with productivity on night shift. Sleep duration after the afternoon shift (8 hours 40 minutes) was on average two hours longer than after the other two shifts. The difference in sleep duration after different shifts, along with circadian variations in alertness, readiness for work and performance efficiency, could be responsible for differences in productivity between shifts.

  7. Do family policy regimes matter for children's well-being?

    PubMed

    Engster, Daniel; Stensöta, Helena Olofsdotter

    2011-01-01

    Researchers have studied the impact of different welfare state regimes, and particularly family policy regimes, on gender equality. Very little research has been conducted, however, on the association between different family policy regimes and children's well-being. This article explores how the different family policy regimes of twenty OECD countries relate to children's well-being in the areas of child poverty, child mortality, and educational attainment and achievement. We focus specifically on three family policies: family cash and tax benefits, paid parenting leaves, and public child care support. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, and 2005, we test the association between these policies and child well-being while holding constant for a number of structural and policy variables. Our analysis shows that the dual-earner regimes, combining high levels of support for paid parenting leaves and public child care, are strongly associated with low levels of child poverty and child mortality. We find little long-term effect of family policies on educational achievement, but a significant positive correlation between high family policy support and higher educational attainment. We conclude that family policies have a significant impact on improving children's well-being, and that dual-earner regimes represent the best practice for promoting children's health and development.

  8. Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, Ed; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1 smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

  9. Theoretical flow regime diagrams for the AGCE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fowlis, W. W.; Miller, T. L.; Roberts, G. O.; Kopecky, K. J.

    1984-01-01

    The major criterion for the design of the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment is that it be possible to realize strong baroclinic instability in the apparatus. A spherical annulus configuration which allows only steady basic state flows was chosen for the first set of stability analyses. Baroclinic instability was found for this configuration and few results suggest a regime diagram very different from the cylindrical annulus regime diagram.

  10. [Sleep quality of nurses working in shifts - Hungarian adaptation of the Bergen Shift Work Sleep Questionnaire].

    PubMed

    Fusz, Katalin; Tóth, Ákos; Fullér, Noémi; Müller, Ágnes; Oláh, András

    2015-12-06

    Sleep disorders among shift workers are common problems due to the disturbed circadian rhythm. The Bergen Shift Work Sleep Questionnaire assesses discrete sleep problems related to work shifts (day, evening and night shifts) and rest days. The aim of the study was to develop the Hungarian version of this questionnaire and to compare the sleep quality of nurses in different work schedules. 326 nurses working in shifts filled in the questionnaire. The authors made convergent and discriminant validation of the questionnaire with the Athens Insomnia Scale and the Perceived Stress Questionnaire. The questionnaire based on psychometric characteristics was suitable to assess sleep disorders associated with shift work in a Hungarian sample. The frequency of discrete symptoms significantly (p<0.001) differed with the shifts. Nurses experienced the worst sleep quality and daytime fatigue after the night shift. Nurses working in irregular shift system had worse sleep quality than nurses working in regular and flexible shift system (p<0.001). The sleep disorder of nurses working in shifts should be assessed with the Hungarian version of the Bergen Shift Work Sleep Questionnaire on a nationally representative sample, and the least burdensome shift system could be established.

  11. Age differences in strategy shift: retrieval avoidance or general shift reluctance?

    PubMed

    Frank, David J; Touron, Dayna R; Hertzog, Christopher

    2013-09-01

    Previous studies of metacognitive age differences in skill acquisition strategies have relied exclusively on tasks with a processing shift from an algorithm to retrieval strategy. Older adults' demonstrated reluctance to shift strategies in such tasks could reflect either a specific aversion to a memory retrieval strategy or a general, inertial resistance to strategy change. Haider and Frensch's (1999) alphabet verification task (AVT) affords a non-retrieval-based strategy shift. Participants verify the continuation of alphabet strings such as D E F G [4] L, with the bracketed digit indicating a number of letters to be skipped. When all deviations are restricted to the letter-digit-letter portion, participants can speed their responses by selectively attending to only that part of the stimulus. We adapted the AVT to include conditions that promoted shift to a retrieval strategy, a selective attention strategy, or both strategies. Item-level strategy reports were validated by eye movement data. Older adults shifted more slowly to the retrieval strategy but more quickly to the selective attention strategy than young adults, indicating a retrieval-strategy avoidance. Strategy confidence and perceived strategy difficulty correlated with shift to the two strategies in both age groups. Perceived speed of responses with each strategy specifically correlated with older adults' strategy choices, suggesting that some older adults avoid retrieval because they do not appreciate its efficiency benefits.

  12. Age Differences in Strategy Shift: Retrieval Avoidance or General Shift Reluctance?

    PubMed Central

    Frank, David J.; Touron, Dayna R.; Hertzog, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies of metacognitive age differences in skill acquisition strategies have relied exclusively on tasks with a processing shift from an algorithm to retrieval strategy. Older adults’ demonstrated reluctance to shift strategies in such tasks could reflect either a specific aversion to a memory retrieval strategy or a general, inertial resistance to strategy change. Haider and Frensch’s (1999) alphabet verification task (AVT) affords a non-retrieval-based strategy shift. Participants verify the continuation of alphabet strings such as D E F G [4] L, with the bracketed digit indicating a number of letters to be skipped. When all deviations are restricted to the letter-digit-letter portion, participants can speed their responses by selectively attend only to that part of the stimulus. We adapted the AVT to include conditions which promoted shift to a retrieval strategy, a selective attention strategy, or both strategies. Item-level strategy reports were validated by eye movement data. Older adults shifted more slowly to the retrieval strategy but more quickly to the selective attention strategy than young adults, indicating a retrieval-strategy avoidance. Strategy confidence and perceived strategy difficulty correlated with shift to the two strategies in both age groups. Perceived speed of responses with each strategy specifically correlated with older adults’ strategy choices, suggesting that some older adults avoid retrieval because they do not appreciate its efficiency benefits. PMID:23088195

  13. [Heath and political regimes: presidential or parliamentary government for Colombia?].

    PubMed

    Idrovo, Alvaro J

    2007-01-01

    Changing the presidential regime for a parliamentarian one is currently be-ing discussed in Colombia. This preliminary study explores the potential effects on health of both presidential and parliamentary regimes by using world-wide data. An ecological study was undertaken using countries from which comparable information concerning life-expectancy at birth, political regime, economic development, inequality in income, social capital (as measured by general-ised trust or Corruption Perceptions Index), political rights, civil freedom and cultural diversity could be obtained. Life-expectancy at birth and macro-determinants were compared between both political regimes. The co-relationship between these macro-determinants was estimated and the relationship between political regimen and life-expectancy at birth was estimated using robust regression. Crude analysis revealed that parliamentary countries have greater life-expectancy at birth than countries having a presidential regime. Significant co-relationships between all macro-determinants were observed. No differential effects were observed between both political regimes regarding life-expectancy at birth in multiple robust regressions. There is no evidence that presidential or parliamentary regimes provide greater levels of health for the population. It is suggested that public health policies be focused on other macro-determinants having more known effects on health, such as income inequality.

  14. Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes.

    PubMed

    Rolls, Robert J; Heino, Jani; Ryder, Darren S; Chessman, Bruce C; Growns, Ivor O; Thompson, Ross M; Gido, Keith B

    2018-05-01

    Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water-resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape-scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi-scaled understanding of

  15. The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitman, Ellen; Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Coop, Jonathan D.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Chong, Geneva W.; Haire, Sandra L.

    2015-01-01

    Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA.Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed.Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause.Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic

  16. Possible mechanisms for four regimes associated with cold events over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Zifan; Huang, Wenyu; Wang, Bin; Chen, Ruyan; Wright, Jonathon S.; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-09-01

    Circulation patterns associated with cold events over East Asia during the winter months of 1948-2014 are classified into four regimes by applying a k-means clustering method based on the area-weighted pattern correlation. The earliest precursor signals for two regimes are anticyclonic anomalies, which evolve into Ural and central Siberian blocking-like circulation patterns. The earliest precursor signals for the other two regimes are cyclonic anomalies, both of which evolve to amplify the East Asian trough (EAT). Both the blocking-like circulation patterns and amplified EAT favor the initialization of cold events. On average, the blocking-related regimes tend to last longer. The lead time of the earliest precursor signal for the central Siberian blocking-related regime is only 4 days, while those for the other regimes range from 16 to 18 days. The North Atlantic Oscillation plays essential roles both in triggering the precursor for the Ural blocking-related regime and in amplifying the precursors for all regimes. All regimes preferentially occur during the positive phase of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern and the negative phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. For three regimes, surface cooling is primarily due to reduced downward infrared radiation and enhanced cold advection. For the remaining regime, which is associated with the southernmost cooling center, sensible and latent heat release and horizontal cold advection dominate the East Asian cooling.

  17. Interactive Effects of CO2 Concentration and Water Regime on Stable Isotope Signatures, Nitrogen Assimilation and Growth in Sweet Pepper.

    PubMed

    Serret, María D; Yousfi, Salima; Vicente, Rubén; Piñero, María C; Otálora-Alcón, Ginés; Del Amor, Francisco M; Araus, José L

    2017-01-01

    Sweet pepper is among the most widely cultivated horticultural crops in the Mediterranean basin, being frequently grown hydroponically under cover in combination with CO 2 fertilization and water conditions ranging from optimal to suboptimal. The aim of this study is to develop a simple model, based on the analysis of plant stable isotopes in their natural abundance, gas exchange traits and N concentration, to assess sweet pepper growth. Plants were grown in a growth chamber for near 6 weeks. Two [CO 2 ] (400 and 800 μmol mol -1 ), three water regimes (control and mild and moderate water stress) and four genotypes were assayed. For each combination of genotype, [CO 2 ] and water regime five plants were evaluated. Water stress applied caused significant decreases in water potential, net assimilation, stomatal conductance, intercellular to atmospheric [CO 2 ], and significant increases in water use efficiency, leaf chlorophyll content and carbon isotope composition, while the relative water content, the osmotic potential and the content of anthocyanins did change not under stress compared to control conditions support this statement. Nevertheless, water regime affects plant growth via nitrogen assimilation, which is associated with the transpiration stream, particularly at high [CO 2 ], while the lower N concentration caused by rising [CO 2 ] is not associated with stomatal closure. The stable isotope composition of carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen (δ 13 C, δ 18 O, and δ 15 N) in plant matter are affected not only by water regime but also by rising [CO 2 ]. Thus, δ 18 O increased probably as response to decreases in transpiration, while the increase in δ 15 N may reflect not only a lower stomatal conductance but a higher nitrogen demand in leaves or shifts in nitrogen metabolism associated with decreases in photorespiration. The way that δ 13 C explains differences in plant growth across water regimes within a given [CO 2 ], seems to be mediated through its direct

  18. Interactive Effects of CO2 Concentration and Water Regime on Stable Isotope Signatures, Nitrogen Assimilation and Growth in Sweet Pepper

    PubMed Central

    Serret, María D.; Yousfi, Salima; Vicente, Rubén; Piñero, María C.; Otálora-Alcón, Ginés; del Amor, Francisco M.; Araus, José L.

    2018-01-01

    Sweet pepper is among the most widely cultivated horticultural crops in the Mediterranean basin, being frequently grown hydroponically under cover in combination with CO2 fertilization and water conditions ranging from optimal to suboptimal. The aim of this study is to develop a simple model, based on the analysis of plant stable isotopes in their natural abundance, gas exchange traits and N concentration, to assess sweet pepper growth. Plants were grown in a growth chamber for near 6 weeks. Two [CO2] (400 and 800 μmol mol−1), three water regimes (control and mild and moderate water stress) and four genotypes were assayed. For each combination of genotype, [CO2] and water regime five plants were evaluated. Water stress applied caused significant decreases in water potential, net assimilation, stomatal conductance, intercellular to atmospheric [CO2], and significant increases in water use efficiency, leaf chlorophyll content and carbon isotope composition, while the relative water content, the osmotic potential and the content of anthocyanins did change not under stress compared to control conditions support this statement. Nevertheless, water regime affects plant growth via nitrogen assimilation, which is associated with the transpiration stream, particularly at high [CO2], while the lower N concentration caused by rising [CO2] is not associated with stomatal closure. The stable isotope composition of carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen (δ13C, δ18O, and δ15N) in plant matter are affected not only by water regime but also by rising [CO2]. Thus, δ18O increased probably as response to decreases in transpiration, while the increase in δ15N may reflect not only a lower stomatal conductance but a higher nitrogen demand in leaves or shifts in nitrogen metabolism associated with decreases in photorespiration. The way that δ13C explains differences in plant growth across water regimes within a given [CO2], seems to be mediated through its direct relationship with N

  19. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto. (b) The term MTCR...

  20. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  1. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  2. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  3. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-03-03

    In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

  4. Electron transport fluxes in potato plateau regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaing, K. C.; Hazeltine, R. D.

    1997-12-01

    Electron transport fluxes in the potato plateau regime are calculated from the solutions of the drift kinetic equation and fluid equations. It is found that the bootstrap current density remains finite in the region close to the magnetic axis, although it decreases with increasing collision frequency. This finite amount of the bootstrap current in the relatively collisional regime is important in modeling tokamak startup with 100% bootstrap current.

  5. Regime Change and the Role of Airpower

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    cut off aid to Batista, Samoza, Marcos , and the Shah. Each dictator sub- sequently fell.”11 Like the domestic winning coalition, foreign countries and...Vice Pres. Hubert Humphrey provides a robust example of a regime change in a democracy. The previous sections detailed 34 AMERICAN REGIME CHANGE how...the Democrats and draw support away from the incumbent candidate, Vice Pres. Hubert Humphrey. Even among Johnson’s advocates and personal advisors

  6. Methodology Development of a Gas-Liquid Dynamic Flow Regime Transition Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doup, Benjamin Casey

    Current reactor safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5, TRACE, and CATHARE, use flow regime maps or flow regime transition criteria that were developed for static fully-developed two-phase flows to choose interfacial transfer models that are necessary to solve the two-fluid model. The flow regime is therefore difficult to identify near the flow regime transitions, in developing two-phase flows, and in transient two-phase flows. Interfacial area transport equations were developed to more accurately predict the dynamic nature of two-phase flows. However, other model coefficients are still flow regime dependent. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the flow regime is still important. In the current work, the methodology for the development of a dynamic flow regime transition model that uses the void fraction and interfacial area concentration obtained by solving three-field the two-fluid model and two-group interfacial area transport equation is investigated. To develop this model, detailed local experimental data are obtained, the two-group interfacial area transport equations are revised, and a dynamic flow regime transition model is evaluated using a computational fluid dynamics model. Local experimental data is acquired for 63 different flow conditions in bubbly, cap-bubbly, slug, and churn-turbulent flow regimes. The measured parameters are the group-1 and group-2 bubble number frequency, void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and interfacial bubble velocities. The measurements are benchmarked by comparing the prediction of the superficial gas velocities, determined using the local measurements with those determined from volumetric flow rate measurements and the agreement is generally within +/-20%. The repeatability four-sensor probe construction process is within +/-10%. The repeatability of the measurement process is within +/-7%. The symmetry of the test section is examined and the average agreement is within +/-5.3% at z/D = 10 and +/-3.4% at z/D = 32

  7. Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, Matthew W.; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    This monograph is the first to survey progress in realistic simulation in a strongly eddying regime made possible by recent increases in computational capability. Its contributors comprise the leading researchers in this important and constantly evolving field. Divided into three parts, • Oceanographic Processes and Regimes: Fundamental Questions • Ocean Dynamics and State: From Regional to Global Scale, and • Modeling at the Mesoscale: State of the Art and Future Directions the volume details important advances in physical oceanography based on eddy resolving ocean modeling. It captures the state of the art and discusses issues that ocean modelers must consider in order to effectively contribute to advancing current knowledge, from subtleties of the underlying fluid dynamical equations to meaningful comparison with oceanographic observations and leading-edge model development. It summarizes many of the important results which have emerged from ocean modeling in an eddying regime, for those interested broadly in the physical science. More technical topics are intended to address the concerns of those actively working in the field.

  8. Modified unified kinetic scheme for all flow regimes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Sha; Zhong, Chengwen

    2012-06-01

    A modified unified kinetic scheme for the prediction of fluid flow behaviors in all flow regimes is described. The time evolution of macrovariables at the cell interface is calculated with the idea that both free transport and collision mechanisms should be considered. The time evolution of macrovariables is obtained through the conservation constraints. The time evolution of local Maxwellian distribution is obtained directly through the one-to-one mapping from the evolution of macrovariables. These improvements provide more physical realities in flow behaviors and more accurate numerical results in all flow regimes especially in the complex transition flow regime. In addition, the improvement steps introduce no extra computational complexity.

  9. Raman amplification in the coherent wave-breaking regime.

    PubMed

    Farmer, J P; Pukhov, A

    2015-12-01

    In regimes far beyond the wave-breaking threshold of Raman amplification, we show that significant amplification can occur after the onset of wave breaking, before phase mixing destroys the coherent coupling between pump, probe, and plasma wave. Amplification in this regime is therefore a transient effect, with the higher-efficiency "coherent wave-breaking" (CWB) regime accessed by using a short, intense probe. Parameter scans illustrate the marked difference in behavior between below wave breaking, in which the energy-transfer efficiency is high but total energy transfer is low, wave breaking, in which efficiency is low, and CWB, in which moderate efficiencies allow the highest total energy transfer.

  10. Ionization cross section, pressure shift and isotope shift measurements of osmium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirayama, Yoshikazu; Mukai, Momo; Watanabe, Yutaka; Oyaizu, Michihiro; Ahmed, Murad; Kakiguchi, Yutaka; Kimura, Sota; Miyatake, Hiroari; Schury, Peter; Wada, Michiharu; Jeong, Sun-Chan

    2017-11-01

    In-gas-cell laser resonance ionization spectroscopy of neutral osmium atoms was performed with the use of a two-color two-step laser resonance ionization technique. Saturation curves for the ionization scheme were measured, and the ionization cross section was experimentally determined by solving the rate equations for the ground, intermediate and ionization continuum populations. The pressure shift and pressure broadening in the resonance spectra of the excitation transition were measured. The electronic factor {F}247 for the transition {λ }1=247.7583 nm to the intermediate state was deduced from the measured isotope shifts of stable {}{188,189,{190,192}}Os isotopes. The efficient ionization scheme, pressure shift, nuclear isotope shift and {F}247 are expected to be useful for applications of laser ion sources to unstable nuclei and for nuclear spectroscopy based on laser ionization techniques.

  11. Burning plasma regime for Fussion-Fission Research Facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    2010-11-01

    The basic aspects of burning plasma regimes of Fusion-Fission Research Facility (FFRF, R/a=4/1 m/m, Ipl=5 MA, Btor=4-6 T, P^DT=50-100 MW, P^fission=80-4000 MW, 1 m thick blanket), which is suggested as the next step device for Chinese fusion program, are presented. The mission of FFRF is to advance magnetic fusion to the level of a stationary neutron source and to create a technical, scientific, and technology basis for the utilization of high-energy fusion neutrons for the needs of nuclear energy and technology. FFRF will rely as much as possible on ITER design. Thus, the magnetic system, especially TFC, will take advantage of ITER experience. TFC will use the same superconductor as ITER. The plasma regimes will represent an extension of the stationary plasma regimes on HT-7 and EAST tokamaks at ASIPP. Both inductive discharges and stationary non-inductive Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD) will be possible. FFRF strongly relies on new, Lithium Wall Fusion (LiWF) plasma regimes, the development of which will be done on NSTX, HT-7, EAST in parallel with the design work. This regime will eliminate a number of uncertainties, still remaining unresolved in the ITER project. Well controlled, hours long inductive current drive operation at P^DT=50-100 MW is predicted.

  12. Do nonlinear dynamics in economics amount to a Kuhnian paradigm shift?

    PubMed

    Dore, Mohammed H I; Rosser, J Barkley

    2007-01-01

    Much empirical analysis and econometric work recognizes that there are nonlinearities, regime shifts or structural breaks, asymmetric adjustment costs, irreversibilities and lagged dependencies. Hence, empirical work has already transcended neoclassical economics. Some progress has also been made in modeling endogenously generated cyclical growth and fluctuations. All this is inconsistent with neoclassical general equilibrium. Hence there is growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. It therefore follows that there is a Kuhnian crisis in economics and further research in nonlinear dynamics and complexity can only increase the Kuhnian anomalies. This crisis can only deepen. However, there is an ideological commitment to general equilibrium that justifies "free enterprise" with only minimal state intervention that may still sustain neoclassical economics despite the growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. Thus, orthodox textbook theory continues to ignore this fact and static neoclassical theory remains a dogma with no apparent reformulation to replace it.

  13. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Lauriie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Ribeiro, L.; hide

    2016-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 50% of ISS astronauts experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's preflight conditions and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. METHODS: We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by

  14. Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

    PubMed Central

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

    2010-01-01

    In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

  15. State shift in Deccan volcanism at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, possibly induced by impact.

    PubMed

    Renne, Paul R; Sprain, Courtney J; Richards, Mark A; Self, Stephen; Vanderkluysen, Loÿc; Pande, Kanchan

    2015-10-02

    Bolide impact and flood volcanism compete as leading candidates for the cause of terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions. High-precision (40)Ar/(39)Ar data indicate that these two mechanisms may be genetically related, and neither can be considered in isolation. The existing Deccan Traps magmatic system underwent a state shift approximately coincident with the Chicxulub impact and the terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions, after which ~70% of the Traps' total volume was extruded in more massive and more episodic eruptions. Initiation of this new regime occurred within ~50,000 years of the impact, which is consistent with transient effects of impact-induced seismic energy. Postextinction recovery of marine ecosystems was probably suppressed until after the accelerated volcanism waned. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Disciplinary Regimes of "Care" and Complementary Alternative Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Pat; Pennacchia, Jodie

    2016-01-01

    In schools, the notion of "care" is often synonymous with welfare and disciplinary regimes. Drawing on Foucault, and a study of alternative education (AE) across the UK, and looking in depth at two cases of complementary AE, we identify three types of disciplinary regimes at work in schools: (1) dominant performative reward and…

  17. A neutral model of low-severity fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Don McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl

    2008-01-01

    Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire occurrence is a stochastic process, an understanding of baseline variability is necessary in order to identify constraints on surface fire regimes. With a suitable null, or neutral, model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated...

  18. Light focusing in the Anderson regime.

    PubMed

    Leonetti, Marco; Karbasi, Salman; Mafi, Arash; Conti, Claudio

    2014-07-29

    Anderson localization is a regime in which diffusion is inhibited and waves (also electromagnetic waves) get localized. Here we exploit adaptive optics to achieve focusing in disordered optical fibres in the Anderson regime. By wavefront shaping and optimization, we observe the generation of a propagation-invariant beam, where light is trapped transversally by disorder, and show that Anderson localizations can be also excited by extended speckled beams. We demonstrate that disordered fibres allow a more efficient focusing action with respect to standard fibres in a way independent of their length, because of the propagation-invariant features and cooperative action of transverse localizations.

  19. Shift work, safety, and aging.

    PubMed

    Folkard, Simon

    2008-04-01

    It has long been recognized that older shift workers may have shorter and more disturbed day sleeps between successive night shifts than their younger colleagues. This has given rise to considerable concern over the safety of aging shift workers because of the increasing age of the work force and increases in retirement age. Because there have been no direct studies of the combined effects of shift work and age on safety, the present paper begins by reviewing the literature relating safety to features of shift systems. It then considers the general effect of age on occupational injury rates before examining existing evidence of the combined effects of shift work and age on performance capabilities. The results of the literature review indicate that when the a priori risk is constant, there is reasonably clear evidence that injury rates are higher at night, and that they increase over successive night shifts more rapidly than over successive day shifts. Further, although occupational injuries are less frequent in older workers, those that do occur tend to be more serious. Finally, there is some suggestive evidence from studies of objectively measured performance capabilities that older workers may be less able to both maintain their performance over the course of a night shift and cope with longer spans of successive night shifts. It is concluded that it seems possible, even though unproven as yet, that older workers may be at greater risk both to injury and accident on the night shift. There is a strong need for future epidemiological studies of the combined effects of shift work and age on injuries and accidents, and that these should attempt to separate the effects of age per se from those of generation.

  20. THE DYNAMIC REGIME CONCEPT FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic regimes of ecosystems are multidimensional basis of attraction, characterized by particular species communities and ecosystems processes. Ecosystem patterns and processes rarely respond linerarly to disturbances, and the nonlinear cynamic regime concept offers a more real...

  1. Quantum-mechanics-derived 13Cα chemical shift server (CheShift) for protein structure validation

    PubMed Central

    Vila, Jorge A.; Arnautova, Yelena A.; Martin, Osvaldo A.; Scheraga, Harold A.

    2009-01-01

    A server (CheShift) has been developed to predict 13Cα chemical shifts of protein structures. It is based on the generation of 696,916 conformations as a function of the φ, ψ, ω, χ1 and χ2 torsional angles for all 20 naturally occurring amino acids. Their 13Cα chemical shifts were computed at the DFT level of theory with a small basis set and extrapolated, with an empirically-determined linear regression formula, to reproduce the values obtained with a larger basis set. Analysis of the accuracy and sensitivity of the CheShift predictions, in terms of both the correlation coefficient R and the conformational-averaged rmsd between the observed and predicted 13Cα chemical shifts, was carried out for 3 sets of conformations: (i) 36 x-ray-derived protein structures solved at 2.3 Å or better resolution, for which sets of 13Cα chemical shifts were available; (ii) 15 pairs of x-ray and NMR-derived sets of protein conformations; and (iii) a set of decoys for 3 proteins showing an rmsd with respect to the x-ray structure from which they were derived of up to 3 Å. Comparative analysis carried out with 4 popular servers, namely SHIFTS, SHIFTX, SPARTA, and PROSHIFT, for these 3 sets of conformations demonstrated that CheShift is the most sensitive server with which to detect subtle differences between protein models and, hence, to validate protein structures determined by either x-ray or NMR methods, if the observed 13Cα chemical shifts are available. CheShift is available as a web server. PMID:19805131

  2. The Self-energy Of Growing Aggregates: "Strength Regime"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimaraes, Ana H. F.; Spahn, F.; Seiss, M.; Brilliantov, N. V.

    2009-09-01

    The vivid appearance of the outer regions of Saturn's rings points to a balance of ongoing fragmentation and coagulation processes. This idea finds support especially in the F-ring, where collisional processes occur on an almost daily basis stirred by perturbations of the satellites Prometheus and Pandora, and in addition due the presence of putative moonlets. In order to quantify this balance in a kinetic theory we propose to calculate the resistivity of small agglomerates ("dynamic ephemeral bodies") against rupture due collisional processes and tidal pull. Earlies studies have shown that the resistivity of an aggregate is divided into two phases: "strength regime" and "gravitational regime". Early in their formation, small agglomerates are supported basically by their "glue" between the particles (adhesion) - "strength regime". For larger agglomerates the "gravitational regime" takes over provided their sizes to be bigger than a threshold in which the self-gravitational energy exceeds the adhesive binding energy, in this case the cluster's constituents are held together gravitationally. We calculated the self-energy caused by adhesion and gravity of ring's aggregates which has been considered as the threshold of impact energy or of tidal work to disrupt the agglomerate. Using a Ballistic Particle Cluster Aggregate Model (BPCA) we varied the densities of the aggregates and the size distribution of their constituents (1-10cm), calculated their self-energy and identified the transition between the "strength" to "gravitational regime". The transition between the regimes occurs at house-size aggregates (diameter of approximately 20m), a fact, that fits to the cut-off on the dense rings' main population (cm - 5m in size). Acknowledgments: A.H.F.G. thanks Dr. E. Vieira-Neto for the discussions, and also the DAAD and Uni-Potsdam for the financial support of this project.

  3. Shifts in depth distributions of alewives, rainbow smelt, and age-2 lake trout in southern Lake Ontario following establishment of Dreissenids

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Gorman, Robert; Elrod, Joseph H.; Owens, Randall W.; Schneider, Clifford P.; Eckert, Thomas H.; Lantry, Brian F.

    2000-01-01

    In the mid-1990s, biologists conducting assessments of fish stocks in Lake Ontario reported finding alewives Alosa pseudoharengus, rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, and juvenile lake trout Salvelinus namaycush at greater depths than in the mid-1980s. To determine if depth distributions shifted coincident with the early 1990s colonization of Lake Ontario by exotic Dreissena mussels, we calculated mean depth of capture for each of the three species during trawl surveys conducted annually during 1978–1997 and examined the means for significant deviations from established patterns. We found that mean capture depth of alewives, rainbow smelt, and age-2 lake trout shifted deeper during the build up of the dreissenid population in Lake Ontario but that timing of the shift varied among seasons and species. Depth shifts occurred first for rainbow smelt and age-2 lake trout in June 1991. In 1992, alewives shifted deeper in June followed by age-2 lake trout in July–August. Finally, in 1993 and 1994, the distribution of lake trout and alewives shifted in April–May. Reasons why the three fishes moved to deeper water are not clear, but changes in distribution were not linked to temperature. Mean temperature of capture after the depth shift was significantly lower than before the depth shift except for alewives in April–May. Movement of alewives, rainbow smelt, and age-2 lake trout to colder, deeper water has the potential to alter growth and reproduction schedules by exposing the fish to different temperature regimes and to alter the food chain, increasing predation on Mysis relicta in deep water and decreasing alewife predation on lake trout fry over nearshore spawning grounds in spring.

  4. The prospects for magnetohydrodynamic stability in advanced tokamak regimes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Manickam, J.; Chance, M.S.; Jardin, S.C.

    1994-05-01

    Stability analysis of advanced regime tokamaks is presented. Here advanced regimes are defined to include configurations where the ratio of the bootstrap current, [ital I][sub BS], to the total plasma current, [ital I][sub [ital p

  5. Comparison of eight and 12 hour shifts: impacts on health, wellbeing, and alertness during the shift.

    PubMed

    Tucker, P; Barton, J; Folkard, S

    1996-11-01

    The generally agreed view is that there is no ideal shift system, and that most systems will have both advantages and disadvantages. As such, attention has been placed on trying to identify good and bad features of shift systems, with a view to minimising the possible ill health as a consequence of shiftwork. The present study focuses on the duration of the shift and looks at the implications for individual health, wellbeing, and alertness during the shift of extending the shift from the traditional eight hours to 12. Two groups of chemical workers, one working 12 hour shifts and the other working eight hour shifts, took part. All completed a modified version of the standard shiftwork index (SSI), a set of self reported questionnaires related to health and wellbeing. The two groups did not differ on most outcome measures, although the differences that did exist suggested advantages for the 12 hour shift workers over the eight hour shift workers; with the notable exception of rated alertness at certain times of day. The results are explained in terms of the design of the 12 hour shift system and the specific sequencing of shifts that seem to minimise the potential for the build up of fatigue. Although the current data moderately favour 12 hour shifts, a cautionary note is sounded with regard to the implications of the alertness ratings for performance and safety.

  6. Inertial flow regimes of the suspension of finite size particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lashgari, Iman; Picano, Francesco; Brandt, Luca

    2015-03-01

    We study inertial flow regimes of the suspensions of finite size neutrally buoyant particles. These suspensions experience three different regimes by varying the Reynolds number, Re , and particle volume fraction, Φ. At low values of Re and Φ, flow is laminar-like where viscous stress is the dominating term in the stress budget. At high Re and relatively small Φ, the flow is turbulent-like where Reynolds stress has the largest contribution to the total stress. At high Φ, the flow regime is as a form of inertial shear-thickening characterized by a significant enhancement in the wall shear stress not due to the increment of Reynolds stress but to the particle stress. We further analyze the local behavior of the suspension in the three different regimes by studying the particle dispersion and collisions. Turbulent cases shows higher level of particle dispersion and higher values of the collision kernel (the radial distribution function times the particle relative velocity as a function of the distance between the particles) than those of the inertial shear-thickening regimes providing additional evidence of two different transport mechanisms in the Bagnoldian regime. Support from the European Research Council (ERC) is acknowledged.

  7. Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

    PubMed Central

    Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale. PMID:24954397

  8. Modeling Whistler Wave Generation Regimes In Magnetospheric Cyclotron Maser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasmanik, D. L.; Demekhov, A. G.; Trakhtengerts, V. Y.; Parrot, M.

    Numerical analysis of the model for cyclotron instability development in the Earth magnetosphere is made.This model, based on the self-consistent set of equations of quasi-linear plasma theory, describes different regimes of wave generation and related energetic particle precipitation. As the source of free energy the injection of energetic electrons with transverse anisotropic distribution function to the interaction region is considered. Two different mechanisms of energetic electron loss from the interaction region are discussed. The first one is precipitation of energetic particles via the loss cone. The other mechanism is drift of particles away from the interaction region across the mag- netic field line. In the case of interaction in plasmasphere or rather large areas of cold plasma density enhancement the loss cone precipitation are dominant. For interaction in a subauroral duct losses due to drift are most effective. A parametric study of the model for both mechanisms of particle losses is made. The main attention is paid to the analysis of generation regimes for different characteristics of energetic electron source, such as the shape of pitch-angle distributions and elec- tron density. We show that in addition to the well-known stationary generation and periodic regime with successive spikes of similar shape, more complex forms of wave spectrum exist. In particular, we found a periodic regime, in which a single period in- cludes two separate spikes with different spectral shapes. In another regime, periodic generation of spikes at higher frequencies together with quasi-stationary generation at lower frequencies occurs. Quasi-periodic regime with spike overlapping, i.e. when generation of a new spike begins before the previous one is over is also found. Results obtained are compared with experimental data on quasi-periodic regimes of whistler wave generation.

  9. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  10. Precipitation Characteristics of ISCCP Cloud Regimes for Improving Model Hydrological Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, D.; Oreopoulos, L.

    2011-01-01

    The key in unraveling relationships between precipitation and atmospheric circulations is their common linkage to clouds. Clouds can be described in a variety of ways and several approaches can be adopted to examine their connections to precipitation. We claim that when cloud regimes (aka weather states) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to conditionally sample/sort and average precipitation data, useful insight and GCM-appropriate diagnostics on the origins and distribution of precipitation can be obtained. The ISCCP cloud regimes are mesoscale (2.5 ) cloud mixtures determined by cluster analysis on joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure inferred from geostationary and polar orbiter satellite passive retrievals. The ISCCP cloud regime data are combined with GPCP IDD merged surface precipitation data and/or higher temporal and spatial resolution TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data. The analysis is performed separately for three geographical zones, tropics, and northern/southern midlatitudes (for GPCP; only the tropics can be examined with TMPA data). Our presentation aspires to provide answers to the following questions: (l) What is the mean and variability of surface precipitation produced by each cloud regime at the time of regime occurrence? (2) What is the relative contribution of each cloud regime to the total precipitation within its geographical zone? (3) What is the geographical distribution of precipitation corresponding to particular cloud regime? (4) To what extent are the cloud regimes distinct in terms of their precipitation characteristics and is the regime ordering in terms of convective strength consistent with the observed precipitation intensity?

  11. Planning for regime change and its aftermath

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-09

    countries’ governing regimes since 9/11–Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience...Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience, and the likely future need, the U.S. has no...time of writing , U.S. policy publicly supports regime change in Syria and North Korea. President Obama’s decision not to militarily intervene to

  12. Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

    2016-11-01

    This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

  13. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE PAGES

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  14. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability.

    PubMed

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-12-01

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model's fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple "weather regimes." To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, "bred vectors" and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from "clouds" (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  15. Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Alan H.; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California. PMID:27849589

  16. Regimes of Two-Phase Flow in Short Rectangular Channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinnov, Evgeny A.; Guzanov, Vladimir V.; Cheverda, Vyacheslav; Markovich, Dmitry M.; Kabov, Oleg A.

    2009-08-01

    Experimental study of two-phase flow in the short rectangular horizontal channel with height 440 μm has been performed. Characteristics of liquid motion inside the channel have been registered and measured by the Laser Induced Fluorescence technique. New information has allowed determining more precisely the characteristics of churn regime and boundaries between different regimes of two-phase flow. It was shown that formation of some two-phase flow regimes and transitions between them are determined by instability of the flow in the lateral parts of the channel.

  17. Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; Longing, S. D.

    2016-01-01

    Natural flow regimes represent the hydrologic conditions to which native aquatic organisms are best adapted. We completed a regional river classification and quantitative descriptions of each natural flow regime for the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands region of Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. On the basis of daily flow records from 64 reference streams, seven natural flow regimes were identified with mixture model cluster analysis: Groundwater Stable, Groundwater, Groundwater Flashy, Perennial Runoff, Runoff Flashy, Intermittent Runoff and Intermittent Flashy. Sets of flow metrics were selected that best quantified nine ecologically important components of these natural flow regimes. An uncertainty analysis was performed to avoid selecting metrics strongly affected by measurement uncertainty that can result from short periods of record. Measurement uncertainties (bias, precision and accuracy) were assessed for 170 commonly used flow metrics. The ranges of variability expected for select flow metrics under natural conditions were quantified for each flow regime to provide a reference for future assessments of hydrologic alteration. A random forest model was used to predict the natural flow regimes of all stream segments in the study area based on climate and catchment characteristics, and a map was produced. The geographic distribution of flow regimes suggested distinct ecohydrological regions that may be useful for conservation planning. This project provides a hydrologic foundation for future examination of flow–ecology relationships in the region. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Gómez-Dans, Jose L; Bradstock, Ross A

    2013-04-16

    Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes--size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent--and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.

  19. Adaptation to shift work: physiologically based modeling of the effects of lighting and shifts' start time.

    PubMed

    Postnova, Svetlana; Robinson, Peter A; Postnov, Dmitry D

    2013-01-01

    Shift work has become an integral part of our life with almost 20% of the population being involved in different shift schedules in developed countries. However, the atypical work times, especially the night shifts, are associated with reduced quality and quantity of sleep that leads to increase of sleepiness often culminating in accidents. It has been demonstrated that shift workers' sleepiness can be improved by a proper scheduling of light exposure and optimizing shifts timing. Here, an integrated physiologically-based model of sleep-wake cycles is used to predict adaptation to shift work in different light conditions and for different shift start times for a schedule of four consecutive days of work. The integrated model combines a model of the ascending arousal system in the brain that controls the sleep-wake switch and a human circadian pacemaker model. To validate the application of the integrated model and demonstrate its utility, its dynamics are adjusted to achieve a fit to published experimental results showing adaptation of night shift workers (n = 8) in conditions of either bright or regular lighting. Further, the model is used to predict the shift workers' adaptation to the same shift schedule, but for conditions not considered in the experiment. The model demonstrates that the intensity of shift light can be reduced fourfold from that used in the experiment and still produce good adaptation to night work. The model predicts that sleepiness of the workers during night shifts on a protocol with either bright or regular lighting can be significantly improved by starting the shift earlier in the night, e.g.; at 21:00 instead of 00:00. Finally, the study predicts that people of the same chronotype, i.e. with identical sleep times in normal conditions, can have drastically different responses to shift work depending on their intrinsic circadian and homeostatic parameters.

  20. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  1. Fish assemblage shifts in the Powder River of Wyoming: an unregulated prairie river system previously considered to be relatively pristine.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senecal, Anna C.; Walters, Annika W.; Hubert, Wayne A.

    2016-01-01

    Wyoming’s Powder River is considered an example of a pristine prairie river system. While the river hosts a largely native fish assemblage and remains unimpounded over its 1,146-km course to the Yellowstone River confluence, the hydrologic regime has been altered through water diversion for agriculture and natural gas extraction and there has been limited study of fish assemblage structure. We analyzed fish data collected from the mainstem Powder River in Wyoming between 1896 and 2008. Shifts in presence/absence and relative abundance of fish species, as well as fish assemblage composition, were assessed among historical and recent samples. The recent Powder River fish assemblage was characterized by increased relative abundances of sand shiner Notropis stramineus and plains killifish Fundulus zebrinus, and decreases in sturgeon chub Macrhybopsis gelida. Shifts in fish species relative abundance are linked to their reproductive ecology with species with adhesive eggs generally increasing in relative abundance while those with buoyant drifting eggs are decreasing. Assemblage shifts could be the result of landscape level changes, such as the loss of extreme high and low flow events and changing land use practices.

  2. Shift Work, Chronotype, and Melatonin Patterns among Female Hospital Employees on Day and Night Shifts.

    PubMed

    Leung, Michael; Tranmer, Joan; Hung, Eleanor; Korsiak, Jill; Day, Andrew G; Aronson, Kristan J

    2016-05-01

    Shift work-related carcinogenesis is hypothesized to be mediated by melatonin; however, few studies have considered the potential effect modification of this underlying pathway by chronotype or specific aspects of shift work such as the number of consecutive nights in a rotation. In this study, we examined melatonin patterns in relation to shift status, stratified by chronotype and number of consecutive night shifts, and cumulative lifetime exposure to shift work. Melatonin patterns of 261 female personnel (147 fixed-day and 114 on rotations, including nights) at Kingston General Hospital were analyzed using cosinor analysis. Urine samples were collected from all voids over a 48-hour specimen collection period for measurement of 6-sulfatoxymelatonin concentrations using the Buhlmann ELISA Kit. Chronotypes were assessed using mid-sleep time (MSF) derived from the Munich Chronotype Questionnaire (MCTQ). Sociodemographic, health, and occupational information were collected by questionnaire. Rotational shift nurses working nights had a lower mesor and an earlier time of peak melatonin production compared to day-only workers. More pronounced differences in mesor and acrophase were seen among later chronotypes, and shift workers working ≥3 consecutive nights. Among nurses, cumulative shift work was associated with a reduction in mesor. These results suggest that evening-types and/or shift workers working ≥3 consecutive nights are more susceptible to adverse light-at-night effects, whereas long-term shift work may also chronically reduce melatonin levels. Cumulative and current exposure to shift work, including nights, affects level and timing of melatonin production, which may be related to carcinogenesis and cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(5); 830-8. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  3. In-line phase shift tomosynthesis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hammonds, Jeffrey C.; Price, Ronald R.; Pickens, David R.

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to (1) demonstrate laboratory measurements of phase shift images derived from in-line phase-contrast radiographs using the attenuation-partition based algorithm (APBA) of Yan et al.[Opt. Express 18(15), 16074–16089 (2010)], (2) verify that the APBA reconstructed images obey the linearity principle, and (3) reconstruct tomosynthesis phase shift images from a collection of angularly sampled planar phase shift images.Methods: An unmodified, commercially available cabinet x-ray system (Faxitron LX-60) was used in this experiment. This system contains a tungsten anode x-ray tube with a nominal focal spot size of 10 μm. The digital detector uses CsI/CMOS withmore » a pixel size of 50 × 50 μm. The phantoms used consisted of one acrylic plate, two polystyrene plates, and a habanero pepper. Tomosynthesis images were reconstructed from 51 images acquired over a ±25° arc. All phase shift images were reconstructed using the APBA.Results: Image contrast derived from the planar phase shift image of an acrylic plate of uniform thickness exceeded the contrast of the traditional attenuation image by an approximate factor of two. Comparison of the planar phase shift images from a single, uniform thickness polystyrene plate with two polystyrene plates demonstrated an approximate linearity of the estimated phase shift with plate thickness (−1600 rad vs −2970 rad). Tomographic phase shift images of the habanero pepper exhibited acceptable spatial resolution and contrast comparable to the corresponding attenuation image.Conclusions: This work demonstrated the feasibility of laboratory-based phase shift tomosynthesis and suggests that phase shift imaging could potentially provide a new imaging biomarker. Further investigation will be needed to determine if phase shift contrast will be able to provide new tissue contrast information or improved clinical performance.« less

  4. Theoretical investigation of the ultra-intense laser interaction with plasma mirrors in radiation pressure dominant regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonia, Krishna Kumar; Maheshwari, K. P.; Jaiman, N. K.

    2017-05-01

    At laser intensity in the range ~ 1022 -1023W/cm2, the radiation pressure starts to play a key role in the interaction of an intense electromagnetic wave with a dense plasma foil. Depending upon the incident laser intensity, polarization of the incident beam and also on the density of the thin plasma layer the mirror motion may be assumed to be uniform, accelerated, or oscillatory. A solid dense plasma slab, accelerated in the radiation pressure dominant (RPD) regime, can efficiently reflect a counter-propagating relativistically strong source pulse consisting of up-shifted frequency and high harmonics. In this RPD regime we present our numerical results for the frequency and brightness of the reflected radiation from a uniformly moving plasma mirror. Our numerical results show that for the appropriate laser and plasma parameters in the case 2γ < {({n}e{λ }s3)}1/6 there are approximately 8.03 × 1042 photons / (mm2 - mrad2 - sec.-0.1% bandwidth) in the energy range ~ 10keV. In the case when 2γ > {({n}e{λ }s3)}1/6 for the same parameters and ad = 300, λd = 0.8 μm, the brightness is found to be 3.27 × 1034 photons / (mm2 - mrad2 - sec. - 0.1% bandwidth) in the energy range ~100 keV.

  5. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; hide

    2014-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 30% of ISS astronauts experience more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the space flight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration space flight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during space flight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight condition and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound

  6. Towards the use of Structural Loop Analysis to Study System Behaviour of Socio-Ecological Systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abram, Joseph; Dyke, James

    2016-04-01

    Maintaining socio-ecological systems in desirable states is key to developing a growing economy, alleviating poverty and achieving a sustainable future. While the driving forces of an environmental system are often well known, the dynamics impacting these drivers can be hidden within a tangled structure of causal chains and feedback loops. A lack of understanding of a system's dynamic structure and its influence on a system's behaviour can cause unforeseen side-effects during model scenario testing and policy implementation. Structural Loop analysis of socio-ecological system models identifies dominant feedback structures during times of behavioural shift, allowing the user to monitor key influential drivers during model simulation. This work carries out Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis (LEEA) on three system dynamic models, exploring tipping points in lake systems undergoing eutrophication. The purpose is to explore the potential benefits and limitations of the technique in the field of socio-ecology. The LEEA technique shows promise for socio-ecological systems which undergo regime shifts or express oscillatory trends, but shows limited usefulness with large models. The results of this work highlight changes in feedback loop dominance, years prior to eutrophic tipping events in lake systems. LEEA could be used as an early warning signal to impending system changes, complementary to other known early warning signals. This approach could improve our understanding during critical times of a system's behaviour, changing how we approach model analysis and the way scenario testing and policy implementation are addressed in socio-ecological system models.

  7. Two different regimes of anomalous walker circulation over the Indian and Pacific Oceans before and after the late 1970s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawamura, Ryuichi; Aruga, Hiromitsu; Matsuura, Tomonori; Iizuka, Satoshi

    Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data aided by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, we investigated two different regimes of anomalous Walker circulation system over the Pacific and Indian Oceans before and after a climate shift, which occurred in the late 1970s. During the period before the climate shift, an upper-level velocity potential anomaly systematically moves eastward from the tropical Indian Ocean to the warm pool region of the western Pacific during the growth phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the meantime, the activities of South Asian and Australian summer monsoon systems are directly affected by the evolution of the anomalous Walker circulation. During the period after the climate shift, in contrast, an upperlevel velocity potential anomaly in the vicinity of the Philippine Sea and maritime continent is observed to expand westward into the northern Indian Ocean and South Asia during the decay phase of ENSO. This feature is identified with a major precursory signal of an anomalous South Asian summer monsoon in the preceding spring. The model captures a systematic eastward propagation similar to that observed prior to the late 1970s, but fails to reproduce the westward extension of the velocity potential anomaly observed to prevail after the late 1970s. The model results suggest that the cross-basin connection between the two oceans is a prerequisite for the turnabout of ENSO prior to the climate shift, in terms of the occurrence of westerly wind bursts.

  8. Shifting scintillator neutron detector

    DOEpatents

    Clonts, Lloyd G; Cooper, Ronald G; Crow, Jr., Morris Lowell; Hannah, Bruce W; Hodges, Jason P; Richards, John D; Riedel, Richard A

    2014-03-04

    Provided are sensors and methods for detecting thermal neutrons. Provided is an apparatus having a scintillator for absorbing a neutron, the scintillator having a back side for discharging a scintillation light of a first wavelength in response to the absorbed neutron, an array of wavelength-shifting fibers proximate to the back side of the scintillator for shifting the scintillation light of the first wavelength to light of a second wavelength, the wavelength-shifting fibers being disposed in a two-dimensional pattern and defining a plurality of scattering plane pixels where the wavelength-shifting fibers overlap, a plurality of photomultiplier tubes, in coded optical communication with the wavelength-shifting fibers, for converting the light of the second wavelength to an electronic signal, and a processor for processing the electronic signal to identify one of the plurality of scattering plane pixels as indicative of a position within the scintillator where the neutron was absorbed.

  9. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological ...

  10. Anthropogenic shift of planktonic food web structure in a coastal lagoon by freshwater flow regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemraj, Deevesh A.; Hossain, A.; Ye, Qifeng; Qin, Jian G.; Leterme, Sophie C.

    2017-03-01

    Anthropogenic modification of aquatic systems has diverse impacts on food web interactions and ecosystem states. To reverse the adverse effects of modified freshwater flow, adequate management of discharge is required, especially due to higher water requirements and abstractions for human use. Here, we look at the effects of anthropogenically controlled freshwater flow regimes on the planktonic food web of a Ramsar listed coastal lagoon that is under recovery from degradation. Our results show shifts in water quality and plankton community interactions associated to changes in water flow. These shifts in food web interactions represent modifications in habitat complexity and water quality. At high flow, phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions dominate the food web. Conversely, at low flow, bacteria, viruses and nano/picoplankton interactions are more dominant, with a substantial switch of the food web towards heterotrophy. This switch can be associated with excess organic matter loading, decomposition of dead organisms, and synergistic and antagonistic interactions. We suggest that a lower variability in flow amplitude could be beneficial for the long-term sustaining of water quality and food web interactions, while improving the ecosystem health of systems facing similar stresses as the Coorong.

  11. Anthropogenic shift of planktonic food web structure in a coastal lagoon by freshwater flow regulation

    PubMed Central

    Hemraj, Deevesh A.; Hossain, A.; Ye, Qifeng; Qin, Jian G.; Leterme, Sophie C.

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic modification of aquatic systems has diverse impacts on food web interactions and ecosystem states. To reverse the adverse effects of modified freshwater flow, adequate management of discharge is required, especially due to higher water requirements and abstractions for human use. Here, we look at the effects of anthropogenically controlled freshwater flow regimes on the planktonic food web of a Ramsar listed coastal lagoon that is under recovery from degradation. Our results show shifts in water quality and plankton community interactions associated to changes in water flow. These shifts in food web interactions represent modifications in habitat complexity and water quality. At high flow, phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions dominate the food web. Conversely, at low flow, bacteria, viruses and nano/picoplankton interactions are more dominant, with a substantial switch of the food web towards heterotrophy. This switch can be associated with excess organic matter loading, decomposition of dead organisms, and synergistic and antagonistic interactions. We suggest that a lower variability in flow amplitude could be beneficial for the long-term sustaining of water quality and food web interactions, while improving the ecosystem health of systems facing similar stresses as the Coorong. PMID:28327643

  12. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  13. A Tale of Two Regimes: Instrumentality and Commons Access

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toly, Noah J.

    2005-01-01

    Technical developments have profound social and environmental impacts. Both are observed in the implications of regimes of instrumentality for commons access regimes. Establishing social, material, ecological, intellectual, and moral infrastructures, technologies are partly constitutive of commons access and may militate against governance…

  14. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime: comparing twice versus thrice vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Aljunid, Syed; Maimaiti, Namaitijiang; Nur, Amrizal M; Noor, Mohd Rushdan Md; Wan Puteh, Sharifa Ezat

    2016-01-23

    The HPV vaccine was introduced to Malaysian national immunization programme in 2010. The current implementation age of HPV vaccination in Malaysian is at the age of 13 years school girls, given according to a 3 doses protocol which may complicate implementation and compliance. Aim of the study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime comparing twice versus thrice HPV vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia. A Markov cohort model reflecting the natural history of HPV infection accounting for oncogenic and low-risk HPV was adapted for 13 year old Malaysian girls cohort (n = 274,050). Transition probabilities, utilities values, epidemiological and cost data were sourced from published literature and local data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on overall efficacy reported from 3-doses clinical trials, with the assumption that the 2-doses is non-inferior to the 3-doses allowing overall efficacy to be inferred from the 3-doses immunogenicity data. Price parity and life-long protection were assumed. The payer perspective was adopted, with appropriate discounting for costs (3 %) and outcomes (3 %). One way sensitivity analysis was conducted. The sensitivity analysis on cost of vaccine, vaccine coverage and discount rate with a 2-doses protocol was performed. The 3-doses and 2-doses regimes showed same number of Cervical Cancers averted (361 cases); QALYs saved at 7,732,266. However, the lifetime protection under the 2-doses regime, showed a significant cost-savings of RM 36, 722,700 compared to the 3-doses scheme. The MOH Malaysia could vaccinate 137,025 more girls in this country using saving 2-doses regime vaccination programme. The model predicted that 2-doses HPV vaccination schemes can avoid additional 180 Cervical Cancers and 63 deaths compare to 3-doses. A 2-doses HPV vaccination scheme may enable Malaysian women to be protected at a lower cost than that achievable under a 3-doses scheme, while avoiding the same number of

  15. Associations between number of consecutive night shifts and impairment of neurobehavioral performance during a subsequent simulated night shift.

    PubMed

    Magee, Michelle; Sletten, Tracey L; Ferguson, Sally A; Grunstein, Ronald R; Anderson, Clare; Kennaway, David J; Lockley, Steven W; Rajaratnam, Shantha Mw

    2016-05-01

    This study aimed to investigate sleep and circadian phase in the relationships between neurobehavioral performance and the number of consecutive shifts worked. Thirty-four shift workers [20 men, mean age 31.8 (SD 10.9) years] worked 2-7 consecutive night shifts immediately prior to a laboratory-based, simulated night shift. For 7 days prior, participants worked their usual shift sequence, and sleep was assessed with logs and actigraphy. Participants completed a 10-minute auditory psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) at the start (~21:00 hours) and end (~07:00 hours) of the simulated night shift. Mean reaction times (RT), number of lapses and RT distribution was compared between those who worked 2-3 consecutive night shifts versus those who worked 4-7 shifts. Following 4-7 shifts, night shift workers had significantly longer mean RT at the start and end of shift, compared to those who worked 2-3 shifts. The slowest and fastest 10% RT were significantly slower at the start, but not end, of shift among participants who worked 4-7 nights. Those working 4-7 nights also demonstrated a broader RT distribution at the start and end of shift and had significantly slower RT based on cumulative distribution analysis (5 (th), 25 (th), 50 (th), 75 (th)percentiles at the start of shift; 75th percentile at the end of shift). No group differences in sleep parameters were found for 7 days and 24 hours prior to the simulated night shift. A greater number of consecutive night shifts has a negative impact on neurobehavioral performance, likely due to cognitive slowing.

  16. Change from an 8-hour shift to a 12-hour shift, attitudes, sleep, sleepiness and performance.

    PubMed

    Lowden, A; Kecklund, G; Axelsson, J; Akerstedt, T

    1998-01-01

    The present study sought to evaluate the effect of a change from a rotating 3-shift (8-hour) to a 2-shift shift (12 hour) schedule on sleep, sleepiness, performance, perceived health, and well-being. Thirty-two shift workers at a chemical plant (control room operators) responded to a questionnaire a few months before a change was made in their shift schedule and 10 months after the change. Fourteen workers also filled out a diary, carried activity loggers, and carried out reaction-time tests (beginning and end of shift). Fourteen day workers served as a reference group for the questionnaires and 9 were intensively studied during a week with workdays and a free weekend. The questionnaire data showed that the shift change increased satisfaction with workhours, sleep, and time for social activities. Health, perceived accident risk, and reaction-time performance were not negatively affected. Alertness improved and subjective recovery time after night work decreased. The quick changes in the 8-hour schedule greatly increased sleep problems and fatigue. Sleepiness integrated across the entire shift cycle showed that the shift workers were less alert than the day workers, across workdays and days off (although alertness increased with the 12-hour shift). The change from 8-hour to 12-hour shifts was positive in most respects, possibly due to the shorter sequences of the workdays, the longer sequences of consecutive days off, the fewer types of shifts (easier planning), and the elimination of quick changes. The results may differ in groups with a higher work load.

  17. 5 CFR 532.505 - Night shift differentials.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... employee regularly assigned to a night shift who is temporarily assigned to a day shift or to a night shift... regularly assigned to a day shift who is temporarily assigned to a night shift shall be paid a night shift... schedule involving work on both day and night shifts shall be paid a night shift differential only for any...

  18. Health Effects of Shift Work

    PubMed Central

    LaDou, Joseph

    1982-01-01

    More than 13.5 million American workers, close to 20 percent of the work force, are assigned to evening or night shifts. In some industries such as automobile, petrochemical and textile manufacturing the proportion of shift workers is greater than 50 percent. As the popularity of shift work and other “alternative work schedules” grows, concern is increasing over the disturbance created in the lives of workers and their families by these economically and socially useful innovations. Twenty percent of workers are unable to tolerate shift work. Daily physiologic variations termed circadian rhythms are interactive and require a high degree of phase relationship to produce subjective feelings of wellbeing. Disturbance of these activities, circadian desynchronization, whether from passage over time zones or from shift rotation, results in health effects such as disturbance of the quantity and quality of sleep, disturbance of gastrointestinal and other organ system activities, and aggravation of diseases such as diabetes mellitus, epilepsy and thyrotoxicosis. Worker selection can reduce the number of health problems resulting from shift work. The periodic examination of shift workers is recommended. PMID:6962577

  19. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  20. Search for a new exchange-rate regime.

    PubMed

    Williamson, J

    1987-07-31

    The regime of unmanaged floating exchange rates was implicitly judged a failure when, with the Plaza Agreement, attempts at cooperative exchange-rate management were reintroduced primarily because of concern at the size of misalignments. Any satisfactory successor regime will need to limit misalignments while retaining the genuine social benefits of exchange-rate flexibility. It is argued that a system of target zones for exchange rates, ideally embedded in a more comprehensive set of guidelines for international economic policy coordination, could best reconcile these needs.

  1. Performance and sleepiness in nurses working 12-h day shifts or night shifts in a community hospital.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Marian; Permito, Regan; English, Ashley; Albritton, Sandra; Coogle, Carlana; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2017-10-05

    Hospitals are around-the-clock operations and nurses are required to care for patients night and day. The nursing shortage and desire for a more balanced work-to-home life has popularized 12-h shifts for nurses. The present study investigated sleep/wake cycles and fatigue levels in 22 nurses working 12-h shifts, comparing day versus night shifts. Nurses (11day shift and 11 night shift) were recruited from a suburban acute-care medical center. Participants wore a wrist activity monitor and kept a diary to track their sleep/wake cycles for 2 weeks. They also completed a fatigue test battery, which included the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS), at the beginning, middle and end of 4 duty shifts. Daily sleep duration was 7.1h on average. No overall difference in mean daily sleep duration was found between nurses working day shifts versus night shifts. Objective performance on the PVT remained relatively good and stable at the start, middle, and end of duty shifts in day shift workers, but gradually degraded across duty time in night shift workers. Compared to day shift workers, night shift workers also exhibited more performance variability among measurement days and between participants at each testing time point. The same pattern was observed for subjective sleepiness on the KSS. However, congruence between objective and subjective measures of fatigue was poor. Our findings suggest a need for organizations to evaluate practices and policies to mitigate the inevitable fatigue that occurs during long night shifts, in order to improve patient and healthcare worker safety. Examination of alternative shift lengths or sanctioned workplace napping may be strategies to consider. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Alternative characterization of forest fire regimes: incorporating spatial patterns

    Treesearch

    Brandon M. Collins; Jens T. Stevens; Jay D. Miller; Scott L. Stephens; Peter M. Brown; Malcolm P. North

    2017-01-01

    ContextThe proportion of fire area that experienced stand-replacing fire effects is an important attribute of individual fires and fire regimes in forests, and this metric has been used to group forest types into characteristic fire regimes. However, relying on proportion alone ignores important spatial characteristics...

  3. Extractive Regimes: Toward a Better Understanding of Indonesian Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gellert, Paul K.

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of an extractive regime to understand Indonesia's developmental trajectory from 1966 to 1998. The concept contributes to world-systems, globalization, and commodity-based approaches to understanding peripheral development. An extractive regime is defined by its reliance on extraction of multiple natural resources…

  4. Space-Time Variability in River Flow Regimes of Northeast Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saris, F.; Hannah, D. M.; Eastwood, W. J.

    2011-12-01

    The northeast region of Turkey is characterised by relatively high annual precipitation totals and river flow. It is a mountainous region with high ecological status and also it is of prime interest to the energy sector. These characteristics make this region an important area for a hydroclimatology research in terms of future availability and management of water resources. However, there is not any previous research identifying hydroclimatological variability across the region. This study provides first comprehensive and detailed information on river flow regimes of northeast Turkey which is delimited by two major river basins namely East Black Sea (EBS) and Çoruh River (ÇRB) basins. A novel river flow classification is used that yields a large-scale perspective on hydroclimatology patterns of the region and allows interpretations regarding the controlling factors on river flow variability. River flow regimes are classified (with respect to timing and magnitude of flow) to examine spatial variability based on long-term average regimes, and also by grouping annual regimes for each station-year to identify temporal (between-year) variability. Results indicate that rivers in northeast Turkey are characterised by marked seasonal flow variation with an April-May-June maximum flow period. Spatial variability in flow regime seasonality is dependent largely on the topography of the study area. The EBS Basin, for which the North Anatolian Mountains cover the eastern part, is characterised by a May-June peak; whereas the ÇRB is defined by an April-May flow peak. The timing of river flows indicates that snowmelt is an important process and contributor of river flow maxima for both basins. The low flow season is January and February. Intermediate and low regime magnitude classes dominate in ÇRB and EBS basins, respectively, while high flow magnitude class is observed for one station only across the region. Result of regime stability analysis (year-to-year variation) shows

  5. Effects of two long-term mowing regimes on vegetation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, M.C.; Deller, A.S.

    2000-01-01

    Wildlife managers have for many years been interested in the role of mowing as a management technique to benefit wildlife. Two long-term mowing regimes (60 years of similar management) were evaluated at Patuxent Research Refuge during the summer of 1997 to better understand the influence of mowing on vegetation communities. Mowing ceased in 1997 due to reduction in maintenance funds, which facilitated the identification of mature grasses. The previous mowing regimes included (1) lawn areas that had been mowed with rotary mowers approximately every 24 weeks and (2) meadow areas that had been mowed approximately once a year with a brushhog. Each regime had two replications. Vegetation was sampled in 20, 1 m2 plots per area (n=80) and percent cover visually estimated by species. The percent ground cover of the dominant vegetation on the lawn area was 40.0% red fescue (Festuca rubra), 26.5% white clover (Trifolium repens), and 18.0% Kentucky blue grass (Poa pratensis). The percent ground cover of the dominant vegetation in the meadow area was 33.2% meadow fescue (Festuca elatior), 9.9% sweet vernal grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), 9.2% orchard grass (Dactylis glomerata), 6.3% Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), and 5.2% red fescue. The sites were sampled again in 1999 with the major difference being the absence of white clover in the lawn areas, believed to be a result of the drought conditions in recent years. All percent ground covers for the dominant vegetation were significantly different (P<0.01) between the two mowing regimes. Species richness was higher in both years in the meadow regime (74, 62) versus the lawn regime (33, 23). Frequently mowed lawn areas may provide better grazing forage for herbivores, such as geese, rabbits, and deer, however, meadow areas may provide greater plant biomass (232 vs. 63 g/m2) and greater diversity of plant species. The meadow regime also appeared to have greater seed production and cover, which is favored by a wider

  6. Can short-wavelength depleted bright light during single simulated night shifts prevent circadian phase shifts?

    PubMed

    Regente, J; de Zeeuw, J; Bes, F; Nowozin, C; Appelhoff, S; Wahnschaffe, A; Münch, M; Kunz, D

    2017-05-01

    In single night shifts, extending habitual wake episodes leads to sleep deprivation induced decrements of performance during the shift and re-adaptation effects the next day. We investigated whether short-wavelength depleted (=filtered) bright light (FBL) during a simulated night shift would counteract such effects. Twenty-four participants underwent a simulated night shift in dim light (DL) and in FBL. Reaction times, subjective sleepiness and salivary melatonin concentrations were assessed during both nights. Daytime sleep was recorded after both simulated night shifts. During FBL, we found no melatonin suppression compared to DL, but slightly faster reaction times in the second half of the night. Daytime sleep was not statistically different between both lighting conditions (n = 24) and there was no significant phase shift after FBL (n = 11). To conclude, our results showed positive effects from FBL during simulated single night shifts which need to be further tested with larger groups, in more applied studies and compared to standard lighting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2014-12-01

    Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

  8. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

    PubMed

    Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

    2003-09-22

    It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

  9. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

    2003-01-01

    It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

  10. North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orrhede, Anna Karin

    1990-01-01

    In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

  11. Hydrological and hydroclimatic regimes in the Ouergha watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Msatef, Karim; Benaabidate, Lahcen; Bouignane, Aziz

    2018-05-01

    This work consists in studying the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of the Ouergha watershed and frequency analysis of extreme flows and extreme rainfall for peak estimation and return periods, in order to prevention and forecasting against risks (flood...). Hydrological regime analysis showed a regime of the rain type, characterized by rainfed abundance with very high winter flows, so strong floods. The annual module and the different coefficients show hydroclimatic fluctuations in relation to a semihumid climate. The water balance has highlighted the importance of the volumes of water conveyed upstream than downstream, thus confirming the morphometric parameters of watershed and the lithological nature. Frequency study of flows and extreme rainfall showed that these flows governed by dissymmetrical laws based on methods Gumbel, GEV, Gamma and Log Pearson III.

  12. Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David; Baskaran, Subbiah

    1995-01-01

    The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

  13. Frequency shifts in gravitational resonance spectroscopy

    DOE PAGES

    Baeßler, S.; Nesvizhevsky, V. V.; Pignol, G.; ...

    2015-02-25

    Quantum states of ultracold neutrons in a gravitational field are characterized through gravitational resonance spectroscopy. This paper discusses systematic effects that appear in the spectroscopic measurements. The discussed frequency shifts-which we call the Stern-Gerlach shift, interference shift, and spectator-state shift-appear in conceivable measurement schemes and have general importance. Lastly, these shifts have to be taken into account in precision experiments.

  14. MODIS Microphysical Regimes for Examining Apparent Aerosol Effects on Clouds and Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.; Lee, D.; Kato, S.; Lebsock, M. D.; Yuan, T.; Huffman, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    We use a 10-year record of MODIS Terra and Aqua Level-3 joint histograms of cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (CER) to derive so-called cloud microphysical regimes by means of clustering analysis. The regimes reveal the dominant modes of COT and CER co-variations around the globe for both liquid and ice phases. The clustering analysis is capable of separating regimes so that each is dominated by one of the two water phases and can be associated with previously derived "dynamical" regimes. The microphysical regimes serve as an appropriate basis to study possible effects of aerosols on cloud microphysical changes and precipitation. To this end, we employ MODIS aerosol loading measurements either in terms of aerosol index or aerosol optical depth and spatiotemporally matched precipitation (from either GPCP, TRMM or CloudSat) to examine intra-regime variability, regime transitions from morning (Terra) to afternoon (Aqua), and regime precipitation characteristics for locally low, average, and high aerosol loadings. Breakdowns by ocean/land and geographical zone (e.g., tropics vs. midlatitudes) are essential for physical interpretation of the results. The analysis conducted so far reveals notable differences in apparent characteristics of low- and high-cloud dominated microphysical regimes when in different aerosol environments. The presentation will attempt to examine whether the picture painted by our work is consistent with prevailing expectations, rooted to either modeling or prior observational studies, on how clouds and precipitation respond to distinct aerosol environments.

  15. Transport regimes spanning magnetization-coupling phase space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Daligault, Jérôme

    2017-10-01

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach, and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed.

  16. Night shift work exposure profile and obesity: Baseline results from a Chinese night shift worker cohort.

    PubMed

    Sun, Miaomiao; Feng, Wenting; Wang, Feng; Zhang, Liuzhuo; Wu, Zijun; Li, Zhimin; Zhang, Bo; He, Yonghua; Xie, Shaohua; Li, Mengjie; Fok, Joan P C; Tse, Gary; Wong, Martin C S; Tang, Jin-Ling; Wong, Samuel Y S; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Evans, Greg; Vermeulen, Roel; Tse, Lap Ah

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the associations between types of night shift work and different indices of obesity using the baseline information from a prospective cohort study of night shift workers in China. A total of 3,871 workers from five companies were recruited from the baseline survey. A structured self-administered questionnaire was employed to collect the participants' demographic information, lifetime working history, and lifestyle habits. Participants were grouped into rotating, permanent and irregular night shift work groups. Anthropometric parameters were assessed by healthcare professionals. Multiple logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations between night shift work and different indices of obesity. Night shift workers had increased risk of overweight and obesity, and odds ratios (ORs) were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.97-1.41) and 1.27 (95% CI, 0.74-2.18), respectively. Abdominal obesity had a significant but marginal association with night shift work (OR = 1.20, 95% CI, 1.01-1.43). A positive gradient between the number of years of night shift work and overweight or abdominal obesity was observed. Permanent night shift work showed the highest odds of being overweight (OR = 3.94, 95% CI, 1.40-11.03) and having increased abdominal obesity (OR = 3.34, 95% CI, 1.19-9.37). Irregular night shift work was also significantly associated with overweight (OR = 1.56, 95% CI, 1.13-2.14), but its association with abdominal obesity was borderline (OR = 1.26, 95% CI, 0.94-1.69). By contrast, the association between rotating night shift work and these parameters was not significant. Permanent and irregular night shift work were more likely to be associated with overweight or abdominal obesity than rotating night shift work. These associations need to be verified in prospective cohort studies.

  17. Night shift work exposure profile and obesity: Baseline results from a Chinese night shift worker cohort

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Wenting; Wang, Feng; Zhang, Liuzhuo; Wu, Zijun; Li, Zhimin; Zhang, Bo; He, Yonghua; Xie, Shaohua; Li, Mengjie; Fok, Joan P. C.; Tse, Gary; Wong, Martin C. S.; Tang, Jin-ling; Wong, Samuel Y. S.; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Evans, Greg; Vermeulen, Roel; Tse, Lap Ah

    2018-01-01

    Aims This study aimed to evaluate the associations between types of night shift work and different indices of obesity using the baseline information from a prospective cohort study of night shift workers in China. Methods A total of 3,871 workers from five companies were recruited from the baseline survey. A structured self-administered questionnaire was employed to collect the participants’ demographic information, lifetime working history, and lifestyle habits. Participants were grouped into rotating, permanent and irregular night shift work groups. Anthropometric parameters were assessed by healthcare professionals. Multiple logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations between night shift work and different indices of obesity. Results Night shift workers had increased risk of overweight and obesity, and odds ratios (ORs) were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.97–1.41) and 1.27 (95% CI, 0.74–2.18), respectively. Abdominal obesity had a significant but marginal association with night shift work (OR = 1.20, 95% CI, 1.01–1.43). A positive gradient between the number of years of night shift work and overweight or abdominal obesity was observed. Permanent night shift work showed the highest odds of being overweight (OR = 3.94, 95% CI, 1.40–11.03) and having increased abdominal obesity (OR = 3.34, 95% CI, 1.19–9.37). Irregular night shift work was also significantly associated with overweight (OR = 1.56, 95% CI, 1.13–2.14), but its association with abdominal obesity was borderline (OR = 1.26, 95% CI, 0.94–1.69). By contrast, the association between rotating night shift work and these parameters was not significant. Conclusion Permanent and irregular night shift work were more likely to be associated with overweight or abdominal obesity than rotating night shift work. These associations need to be verified in prospective cohort studies. PMID:29763461

  18. Effect of Shift Work on Nocturia.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jin Wook

    2016-01-01

    To identify the circadian sensitive component of nocturia by comparing nocturia in patients who voluntarily choose a disrupted circadian rhythm, that is, shift workers, with those who maintain normal day-night cycles. Between 2011 and 2013, a total of 1741 untreated patients, 1376 nonshift workers and 365 shift workers, were compared for nocturia indices based on frequency volume charts (FVCs). General linear model of 8-hour interval urine production and frequency were compared between FVCs of nonshift workers, FVCs of night-shift workers, and FVCs of day-shift workers. Nocturia frequency was increased in the night-shift workers (2.38 ± 1.44) compared with nonshift workers (2.18 ± 1.04) (P <.01). Whereas nocturnal polyuria index did not increase significantly (0.33 ± 0.19 for night-shift workers, 0.34 ± 0.13 for nonshift workers, P = .24), nocturnal bladder capacity index increased significantly (1.41 ± 1.06 for night-shift workers, 1.26 ± 0.92 for nonshift workers, P <.01). Eight-hour interval indices show that urine production changed with shift (P <.01), whereas voiding frequency remains unchanged despite shift changes (P = .35). Patients in alternating work shifts showed increased nocturia, especially during their night shift. These changes tended to be more associated with decreased nocturnal bladder capacity than increased nocturnal polyuria. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Infrasound reveals transition to oscillatory discharge regime during lava fountaining: Implication for early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulivieri, Giacomo; Ripepe, Maurizio; Marchetti, Emanuele

    2013-06-01

    present the analysis of ~4 million infrasonic signals which include 39 episodes of lava fountains recorded at 5.5 km from the active vents. We show that each eruptive episode is characterized by a distinctive trend in the amplitude, waveform, and frequency content of the acoustic signals, reflecting different explosive levels. Lava fountain starts with an ~93 min long violent phase of acoustic transients at ~1.25 Hz repeating every 2-5 s. Infrasound suddenly evolves into a persistent low-frequency quasi-monochromatic pressure oscillation at ~0.4 Hz. We interpret this shift as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete Strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regime that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. We calculate that infrasonic transition can occur at a gas superficial velocity of ≤76 m/s and it can be used to define infrasonic-based thresholds for an efficient early warning system.

  20. Nonvolatile Solid-State Charged-Polymer Gating of Topological Insulators into the Topological Insulating Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ireland, R. M.; Wu, Liang; Salehi, M.; Oh, S.; Armitage, N. P.; Katz, H. E.

    2018-04-01

    We demonstrate the ability to reduce the carrier concentration of thin films of the topological insulator (TI) Bi2 Se3 by utilizing a nonvolatile electrostatic gating via corona charging of electret polymers. Sufficient electric field can be imparted to a polymer-TI bilayer to result in significant electron density depletion, even without the continuous connection of a gate electrode or the chemical modification of the TI. We show that the Fermi level of Bi2 Se3 is shifted toward the Dirac point with this method. Using terahertz spectroscopy, we find that the surface chemical potential is lowered into the bulk band gap (approximately 50 meV above the Dirac point and 170 meV below the conduction-band minimum), and it is stabilized in the intrinsic regime while enhancing electron mobility. The mobility of surface state electrons is enhanced to a value as high as approximately 1600 cm2/V s at 5 K.