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Sample records for impending regime shift

  1. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

    PubMed Central

    Biggs, Reinette; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2009-01-01

    Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts. PMID:19124774

  2. The detection of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information(presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

  3. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  4. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-10-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  5. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  6. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

    PubMed Central

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-01-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions—regime shifts—are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water–vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  7. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

    PubMed Central

    Spanbauer, Trisha L.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. PMID:25280010

  8. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A K

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise. PMID:27078387

  9. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  10. Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

    PubMed

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  11. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D.; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  12. Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Ellison, Aaron M.

    2013-01-01

    Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes. PMID:23613583

  13. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  14. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  15. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, J.; Yletyinen, J.; Biggs, R.; Blenckner, T.; Peterson, G.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  16. Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, G.; Conversi, A.; Chiba, S.; Edwards, M.; Fonda-Umani, S.; Greene, C.; Mantua, N.; Otto, S. A.; Reid, P. C.; Stachura, M. M.; Stemmann, L.; Sugisaki, H.

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

  17. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services. PMID:26286204

  18. Consequences of regime shifts for marine food webs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen

    2009-03-01

    Climate-mediated ecological regime shifts can re-structure entire ecosystems from primary producers to top predators. As a consequence, major trophodynamic pathways change with the altered mix of dominating species. Four cases of ecosystem regime shifts forced by climate variability are presented (North Sea, central Baltic Sea, central North Pacific and Humboldt Current ecosystems) and the effect on food chains is elucidated. Different types of trophodynamic control mechanisms set in motion through the impact of climate variability and the potential impact of regime shifts on biogeochemical cycles are discussed.

  19. Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    deYoung, B.; Harris, R.; Alheit, J.; Beaugrand, G.; Mantua, N.; Shannon, L.

    2004-02-01

    We review observational data sets that have been used to detect regime shifts in the ocean. Through exploration of data time series we develop a definition of a regime shift from a pragmatic perspective, in which a shift is considered as an abrupt change from a quantifiable ecosystem state. We conclude that such changes represent a restructuring of the ecosystem state in some substantial sense that persists for long enough that a new quasi-equilibrium state can be observed. The abruptness of the shift is relative to the life-scale or the reproductive time-scale of the higher predators that are influenced by the shift. In general, the event-forcing is external to the biological ecosystem, usually the physical climate system, but we also identify shifts that can be ascribed to anthropogenic forcing, in our examples fishing. This pragmatic definition allows for several different types of regime shift ranging from simple biogeographic shifts to non-linear state changes. In practice it is quite difficult to determine whether observed changes in an oceanic ecosystem are primarily spatial or temporally regulated. The determination of ecosystem state remains an unresolved, and imprecise, oceanographic problem. We review observations and interpretation from several different oceanic regions as examples to illustrate this pragmatic definition of a regime shift: the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest and Northeast Atlantic, and Eastern Boundary Currents. For each region, different types of data (biological and physical) are available for differing periods of time, and we conclude, with varying degrees of certainty, whether a regime shift is in fact detectable in the data.

  20. Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Linares, Cristina; Dakos, Vasilis; van de Leemput, Ingrid A; van Nes, Egbert H

    2013-03-01

    Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun. PMID:22995893

  1. Redox regime shifts in microbially mediated biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bush, T.; Butler, I. B.; Free, A.; Allen, R. J.

    2015-06-01

    Understanding how the Earth's biogeochemical cycles respond to environmental change is a prerequisite for the prediction and mitigation of the effects of anthropogenic perturbations. Microbial populations mediate key steps in these cycles, yet they are often crudely represented in biogeochemical models. Here, we show that microbial population dynamics can qualitatively affect the response of biogeochemical cycles to environmental change. Using simple and generic mathematical models, we find that nutrient limitations on microbial population growth can lead to regime shifts, in which the redox state of a biogeochemical cycle changes dramatically as the availability of a redox-controlling species, such as oxygen or acetate, crosses a threshold (a "tipping point"). These redox regime shifts occur in parameter ranges that are relevant to the present-day sulfur cycle in the natural environment and the present-day nitrogen cycle in eutrophic terrestrial environments. These shifts may also have relevance to iron cycling in the iron-containing Proterozoic and Archean oceans. We show that redox regime shifts also occur in models with physically realistic modifications, such as additional terms, chemical states, or microbial populations. Our work reveals a possible new mechanism by which regime shifts can occur in nutrient-cycling ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, and highlights the importance of considering microbial population dynamics in models of biogeochemical cycles.

  2. Connectivity, regime shifts and the resilience of coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmhirst, Toby; Connolly, Sean R.; Hughes, Terry P.

    2009-12-01

    Connectivity of larvae among metapopulations in open marine systems can be a double-edged sword, allowing for the colonization and replenishment of both desirable and undesirable elements of interacting species-rich assemblages. This article studies the effect of recruitment by coral and macroalgae on the resilience of grazed reef ecosystems. In particular, we focus on how larval connectivity affects regime shifts between alternative assemblages that are dominated either by corals or by macroalgae. Using a model with bistability dynamics, we show that recruitment of coral larvae erodes the resilience of a macroalgae-dominated ecosystem when grazing is high, but has negligible effect when grazing is low. Conversely, recruitment by macroalgae erodes the resilience of a coral-dominated ecosystem when grazing is low, leading to a regime shift to macroalgae. Thus, spillover of coral recruits from highly protected areas will not restore coral cover or prevent flips to macroalgae in the surrounding seascape if grazing levels in these areas are depleted, but may be pivotal for re-building coral populations if grazing is high. Fishing restrictions and the re-introduction of herbivores should therefore be a prime conservation objective for preventing undesirable regime shifts. Connectivity by some components of coral reef assemblages (e.g., macroalgae, pathogens, crown-of-thorns starfish) may be detrimental to sustaining reefs, especially where overfishing and other drivers have eroded their resilience, making them more vulnerable to a regime shift.

  3. Flow regime shifts in the Little Piney creek (US)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Botter, G.

    2014-09-01

    Non-stationarity of climate drivers and soil-use strongly affects the hydrologic cycle, producing significant inter-annual and multi-decadal fluctuations of river flow regimes. Understanding the temporal trajectories of hydrologic regimes is a key issue for the management of freshwater ecosystems and the security of human water uses. Here, long-term changes in the seasonal flow regime of the Little Piney creek (US) are analyzed with the aid of a stochastic mechanistic approach that expresses analytically the streamflow distribution in terms of a few measurable hydroclimatic parameters, providing a basis for assessing the impact of climate and landscape modifications on water resources. Mean rainfall and streamflow rates exhibit a pronounced inter-annual variability across the last century, though in the absence of clear sustained drifts. Long-term modifications of streamflow regimes across different periods of 2 and 8 years are likewise significant. The stochastic model is able to reasonably reproduce the observed 2-years and 8-years regimes in the Little Piney creek, as well as the corresponding inter-annual variations of streamflow probability density. The study evidences that a flow regime shift occurred in the Little Piney creek during the last century, with erratic regimes typical of the 30s/40s that had been progressively replaced by persistent flow regimes featured by more dumped streamflow fluctuations. Causal drivers of regime shift are identified as the increase of the frequency of events (a byproduct of climate variability) and the decrease of recession rates (induced by a decrease of cultivated lands). The approach developed offers an objective basis for the analysis and prediction of the impact of climate/landscape change on water resources.

  4. Sensitivity of streamflows to hydroclimatic fluctuations: resilience and regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Botter, Gianluca; Basso, Stefano; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Landscape and climate alterations foreshadow global-scale shifts of river flow regimes. However, a theory that identifies the range of foreseen impacts on streamflows resulting from inhomogeneous forcings and sensitivity gradients across diverse regimes is lacking. In this contribution, we use a dimensionless index embedding simple climate and landscape attributes (the ratio of the mean interarrival of streamflow-producing rainfall events and the mean catchment response time) to discriminate erratic regimes with enhanced intra-seasonal streamflow variability from persistent regimes endowed with regular flow patterns. The proposed classification is successfully applied to 110 seasonal streamflow distributions observed in 44 catchments of the Alps and the United States, allowing the identification of emerging patterns in space and time. In the same framework, the impact of multi-scale fluctuations of the underlying climatic drivers (temperature, precipitation) on the streamflow distributions can be analyzed. Theoretical and empirical data show that erratic regimes, typical of rivers with low mean discharges, are highly resilient in that they hold a reduced sensitivity to variations in the external forcing. Specific temporal trajectories of streamflow distributions and flow regime shifts driven by land-cover change and rainfall patterns can be also evidenced. The approach developed offers an objective basis for the analysis and prediction of the impact of climate/landscape change on water resources.

  5. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  6. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. PMID:26598217

  7. Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

    2015-10-01

    Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

  8. Unsustainable Groundwater Exploitation and Stochastic Regime Shifts: Converging Management Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Suresh; Park, Jeryang

    2014-05-01

    Increasing water security concerns arise from projected increases in competing freshwater demands, resulting from rapid urbanization, growing affluent population, and the need for increased production of food and bio-energy. These global trends in concert with the convergence of three groups of threats are likely to exacerbate freshwater security issues: (1) increasing dependency on effectively non-renewable groundwater ("peak water"); (2) increasing groundwater quality impairment("land-use intensification") from larger contaminant loads delivered from the vadose zone and surface water; and (3) increasing uncertainties in groundwater demand/supply from climate change ("stochastic risks"). Here, we present a conceptual framework for exploring water security threats, with a consideration of aquifers as complex hydrological systems with two stable states. Regime shifts in groundwater pumping -- from "sufficient" to "insufficient" -- result from changes in both internal system dynamics and external forcing from stochastic divers (non-stationary demands, hydro-climatic patterns). Examples from recent related work, in groundwater and surface water systems and ecosystems, are briefly reviewed as a prelude to presentation of model simulations of hypothetical scenarios of regime-shifts (tipping points) involving groundwater quantity and quality constraints. In addition to three types of widely recognized tipping points, we introduce a new type, stochastic tipping, that contributes to unexpected, undesirable regime shifts, resulting in inability to meet groundwater pumping needs, even when the perceived precariousness is small and the system is far from bifurcation point (deterministic tipping). Implications to sustainable groundwater management are discussed.

  9. Socioecological regime shifts in the setting of complex social interactions.

    PubMed

    Sugiarto, Hendrik Santoso; Chung, Ning Ning; Lai, Choy Heng; Chew, Lock Yue

    2015-06-01

    The coupling between social and ecological system has become more ubiquitous and predominant in the current era. The strong interaction between these systems can bring about regime shifts which in the extreme can lead to the collapse of social cooperation and the extinction of ecological resources. In this paper, we study the occurrence of such regime shifts in the context of a coupled social-ecological system where social cooperation is established by means of sanction that punishes local selfish act and promotes norms that prescribe nonexcessive resource extraction. In particular, we investigate the role of social networks on social-ecological regimes shift and the corresponding hysteresis effects caused by the local ostracism mechanism under different social and ecological parameters. Our results show that a lowering of network degree reduces the hysteresis effect and also alters the tipping point, which is duly verified by our numerical results and analytical estimation. Interestingly, the hysteresis effect is found to be stronger in scale-free network in comparison with random network even when both networks have the same average degree. These results provide deeper insights into the resilience of these systems, and can have important implications on the management of coupled social-ecological systems with complex social interactions. PMID:26172751

  10. Socioecological regime shifts in the setting of complex social interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiarto, Hendrik Santoso; Chung, Ning Ning; Lai, Choy Heng; Chew, Lock Yue

    2015-06-01

    The coupling between social and ecological system has become more ubiquitous and predominant in the current era. The strong interaction between these systems can bring about regime shifts which in the extreme can lead to the collapse of social cooperation and the extinction of ecological resources. In this paper, we study the occurrence of such regime shifts in the context of a coupled social-ecological system where social cooperation is established by means of sanction that punishes local selfish act and promotes norms that prescribe nonexcessive resource extraction. In particular, we investigate the role of social networks on social-ecological regimes shift and the corresponding hysteresis effects caused by the local ostracism mechanism under different social and ecological parameters. Our results show that a lowering of network degree reduces the hysteresis effect and also alters the tipping point, which is duly verified by our numerical results and analytical estimation. Interestingly, the hysteresis effect is found to be stronger in scale-free network in comparison with random network even when both networks have the same average degree. These results provide deeper insights into the resilience of these systems, and can have important implications on the management of coupled social-ecological systems with complex social interactions.

  11. Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gangopadhyay, S.; McCabe, G. J.; Brekke, L. D.

    2010-12-01

    The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g. decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. Boxplot of risk outlooks in the Colorado River Basin from the nine flow reconstructions developed in Gangopadhyay et al. (2009). Gangopadhyay, S., B.L. Harding, B. Rajagopalan, J.J. Lukas, and T.J. Fulp, (2009) A non-parametric approach for paleohydrologic reconstruction of annual streamflow ensembles. Water Resour. Res., 45, W06417.

  12. Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2010-10-01

    The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

  13. Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christopher T; Uehlinger, Urs

    2008-03-01

    Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates

  14. Snowmelt Runoff Regime Shifts Across Western North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritze, H. H.; Stewart-Frey, I. T.; Pebesma, E. J.

    2009-12-01

    Snowmelt runoff serves as a climatic indicator and is of great importance for water resources across Western North America. A changing climate affects streamflow and changes its intra-annual contribution. Previous studies have found changes in snowmelt runoff towards earlier in the year through the 2000 period. The goals of this study were to a) determine whether streamflow timing trends have accelerated most recently (including the water year 2008), b) evaluate whether and where streams have experienced snowmelt runoff regime shifts, and c) develop an efficient and accessible interface to display stream hydrographs, stream details, and streamflow timing measures. Streamflow timing trends, seasonal redistribution, and correlation with climatic indices were determined by statistical analysis. Based on the ratio of years with and without snowmelt pulses this study also developed a measure of snowmelt domination and classified the streams into four categories. These categories were used to compare groups of streams with similar runoff characteristics and to quantify shifts in snowmelt domination regimes. Results show that shifts in streamflow timing have generally increased when considering the period through 2008. In addition, 15-20% of the 362 gauges included in this study have undergone a snowmelt category shift over the last decades. These category shifts are almost exclusively in the direction towards greater rain domination. The most vulnerable watersheds have changed from clearly snowmelt dominated to mostly rain dominated. Last but not least, the data and measures were interactively visualized on a virtual globe using Nasa World Wind Java and are publicly accessible from a Santa Clara University website.

  15. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. PMID:27387951

  16. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  17. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  18. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos.

    PubMed

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-08-28

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  19. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos

    PubMed Central

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Beuchel, Frank; Renaud, Paul E.; Rodrigues, João; Lønne, Ole Jørgen; Gulliksen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980–2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. PMID:22891319

  20. Regime shifts in the Humboldt Current ecosystem [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Niquen, Miguel

    2004-02-01

    Of the four major eastern boundary currents, the Humboldt Current (HC) stands out because it is extremely productive, dominated by anchovy dynamics and subject to frequent direct environmental perturbations of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term dynamics of the HC ecosystem are controlled by shifts between alternating anchovy and sardine regimes that restructure the entire ecosystem from phytoplankton to the top predators. These regime shifts are caused by lasting periods of warm or cold temperature anomalies related to the approach or retreat of warm subtropical oceanic waters to the coast of Peru and Chile. Phases with mainly negative temperature anomalies parallel anchovy regimes (1950-1970; 1985 to the present) and the rather warm period from 1970 to 1985 was characterized by sardine dominance. The transition periods (turning points) from one regime to the other were 1968-1970 and 1984-1986. Like an El Nino, the warm periods drastically change trophic relationships in the entire HC ecosystem, exposing the Peruvian anchovy to a multitude of adverse conditions. Positive temperature anomalies off Peru drive the anchovy population close to the coast as the coastal upwelling cells usually offer the coolest environment, thereby substantially decreasing the extent of the areas of anchovy distribution and spawning. This enhances the effects of negative density-dependent processes such as egg and larval cannibalism and dramatically increases its catchability. Increased spatial overlap between anchovies and the warmer water preferring sardines intensifies anchovy egg mortality further as sardines feed heavily on anchovy eggs. Food sources for juvenile and adult anchovies which prey on a mixed diet of phyto- and zooplankton are drastically reduced because of decreased plankton production due to restricted upwelling in warm years, as demonstrated by lower zooplankton and phytoplankton volumes and the diminution of the fraction of large copepods, their

  1. Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests

    PubMed Central

    Lindenmayer, David B.; Hobbs, Richard J.; Likens, Gene E.; Krebs, Charles J.; Banks, Samuel C.

    2011-01-01

    We describe the “landscape trap” concept, whereby entire landscapes are shifted into, and then maintained (trapped) in, a highly compromised structural and functional state as the result of multiple temporal and spatial feedbacks between human and natural disturbance regimes. The landscape trap concept builds on ideas like stable alternative states and other relevant concepts, but it substantively expands the conceptual thinking in a number of unique ways. In this paper, we (i) review the literature to develop the concept of landscape traps, including their general features; (ii) provide a case study as an example of a landscape trap from the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of southeastern Australia; (iii) suggest how landscape traps can be detected before they are irrevocably established; and (iv) present evidence of the generality of landscape traps in different ecosystems worldwide. PMID:21876151

  2. Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

  3. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  4. Approaches to predicting broad-scale regime shifts using changing pattern-process relationships across scales

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Understanding and predicting the occurrence of alternative ecosystem states (i.e., regime shifts) at broad scales is a pressing challenge for ecologists given the scope and nature of global change. In many cases, regime shifts at broad-scales are affected by pattern-process relationships across a ra...

  5. Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

    PubMed Central

    Levin, Phillip S.; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.

  6. Contrasting energy pathways at the community level as a consequence of regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jun; Wen, Zhourui; Ke, Zhixin; Zhang, Meng; Zhang, Min; Guo, Nichun; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Xie, Ping

    2014-05-01

    Ecological regime shifts typically result in abrupt changes in ecosystem structure through several trophic levels, which leads to rapid ecosystem reconfiguration between regimes. An interesting aspect of the impact of regime shift is that alternative regimes may induce distinct shifts in energy pathways; these have been less tested than structural changes. This paper addresses this by using stable isotopes to establish the energy pathways in fish communities. We specifically focus on the impact of regime shift on changes of the energy pathways, and how the magnitude and direction of these changes affect the local community. We found that energy pathways significantly varied among the planktivorous, benthivorous, and piscivorous trophic guilds as a result of the alternative regimes. The regime shift from a clear to a turbid state altered the food web towards planktonic energy pathways and truncated food chain length, which is indicative of less ecological efficiency. This was confirmed by the adaptive foraging strategies of prevalent omnivores in the current communities. These structural and functional characteristics of trophic interactions might not facilitate classic trophic cascading effects in such a turbid regime and suppress the system's response to environmental changes, e.g., nutrient loading, and restoration efforts in turbid to clear water regime shifts. PMID:24414311

  7. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): Evidence of a recent regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczak, Maciej T.; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik; Maar, Marie; Støttrup, Josianne G.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is a eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and main outflow to the Kattegat in the east. We showed that from 1990 to 1995, the ecosystem structure shifted from dominance by demersal fish species (eelpout, whiting, flounder, plaice) to that of pelagic fish species (sprat, herring, sticklebacks), small-bodied fish species (black goby, pipefish), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance.

  8. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, C.; Cole, H.; Henson, S.; Yool, A.; Anderson, T. R.; de Mora, L.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Totterdell, I. J.; Allen, J. I.

    2015-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

  9. Making pore choices: repeated regime shifts in stomatal ratio.

    PubMed

    Muir, Christopher D

    2015-08-22

    Ecologically important traits do not evolve without limits. Instead, evolution is constrained by the set of available and viable phenotypes. In particular, natural selection may only favour a narrow range of adaptive optima constrained within selective regimes. Here, I integrate data with theory to test whether selection explains phenotypic constraint. A global database of 599 plant species from 94 families shows that stomatal ratio, a trait affecting photosynthesis and defence against pathogens, is highly constrained. Most plants have their stomata on the lower leaf surface (hypostomy), but species with half their stomata on each surface (amphistomy) form a distinct mode in the trait distribution. A model based on a trade-off between maximizing photosynthesis and a fitness cost of upper stomata predicts a limited number of adaptive solutions, leading to a multimodal trait distribution. Phylogenetic comparisons show that amphistomy is the most common among fast-growing species, supporting the view that CO2 diffusion is under strong selection. These results indicate that selective optima stay within a relatively stable set of selective regimes over macroevolutionary time. PMID:26269502

  10. Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

  11. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

    2015-01-01

    Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

  12. Ecosystem regime shifts have not affected growth and survivorship of eastern Beaufort Sea belugas.

    PubMed

    Luque, Sebastián P; Ferguson, Steven H

    2009-05-01

    Large-scale ocean-atmosphere physical dynamics can have profound impacts on the structure and organization of marine ecosystems. These changes have been termed "regime shifts", and five different episodes have been detected in the North Pacific Ocean, with concurrent changes also occurring in the Bering and Beaufort Seas. Belugas from the Eastern Beaufort Sea (EBS) use the Bering Sea during winter and the Beaufort Sea during summer, yet the potential effects of regime shifts on belugas have not been assessed. We investigated whether body size and survivorship of EBS belugas harvested in the Mackenzie River delta region between 1993 and 2003 have been affected by previous purported regime shifts in the North Pacific. Residuals from the relationship between body length and age were calculated and compared among belugas born between 1932 and 1989. Residual body size was not significantly related to birth year for any regime, nor to the age group individuals belonged to during any regime. The percentage deviation in number of belugas born in any given year that survived to be included in the hunt (survivorship) did not show any significant trend within or between regimes. Accounting for lags of 1-5 years did not reveal any evidence of delayed effects. Furthermore, neither population index was significantly related to changes in major climatic variables that precede regime shifts. Our results suggest that EBS beluga body size and survivorship have not been affected by the major regime shifts of the North Pacific and the adjacent Bering and Beaufort Seas. EBS belugas may have been able to modify their diet without compromising their growth and survivorship. Diet and reproductive analyses over large and small time scales can help understand the mechanisms enabling belugas to avoid significant growth and reproductive effects of past regime shifts. PMID:19229560

  13. Resisting regime-shifts: the stabilising effect of compensatory processes.

    PubMed

    Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia

    2015-09-01

    Ecologists seem predisposed to studying change because we are intuitively interested in dynamic systems, including their vulnerability to human disturbance. We contrast this disposition with the value of studying processes that work against change. Although powerful, processes that counter disturbance often go unexplored because they yield no observable community change. This stability results from compensatory processes which are initiated by disturbance; these adjust in proportion to the strength of the disturbance to prevent community change. By recognising such buffering processes, we might also learn to recognise the early warning signals of community shifts which are notoriously difficult to predict because communities often show little to no change before their tipping point is reached. PMID:26190138

  14. The Impending Crisis

    PubMed Central

    Kaplan, Raymond L.; Burgess, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    When you are ill and consult a physician for his or her expertise, many times laboratory testing is part of the clinical workup. This testing is critical to the physician’s ability to diagnose the patient’s condition. What if testing was not available … because there was no one to do the testing? Although seemingly far-fetched, this scenario could play itself out in the next ten years due to an impending manpower crisis in laboratory medicine. The profession of Medical Technology, also known as Clinical Laboratory Science, is experiencing a shortage of qualified individuals for a variety of reasons – not the least of which is the closure of almost 70% of the schools teaching this critical profession. Health care workers (HCW) rely on accurate and timely clinical laboratory results in order to make decisions for their patients. Because ∼ 70% of patient care decisions are based on clinical laboratory results, it is important to have a well-trained supply of laboratory professionals. This article will give an overview of the situation and the possible causes of this shortage, and pose challenges to our profession as to how this crisis can be averted. Visibility of this profession must be a prime focus of this effort in order for the population in general to be aware of the role Clinical Laboratory Scientists play in the health care consortium. This effort should begin early in the educational process, potentially as early as Middle School (junior high school), bringing awareness of the profession not only to students but to educators as well. PMID:23653714

  15. Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yletyinen, Johanna; Bodin, Örjan; Weigel, Benjamin; Nordström, Marie C.; Bonsdorff, Erik; Blenckner, Thorsten

    2016-01-01

    Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs. PMID:26888032

  16. Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yletyinen, Johanna; Bodin, Örjan; Weigel, Benjamin; Nordström, Marie C; Bonsdorff, Erik; Blenckner, Thorsten

    2016-02-24

    Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs. PMID:26888032

  17. Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, Claudie; Cole, Harriet; Henson, Stephanie; Yool, Andrew; Anderson, Tom; de Mora, Lee; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Butenschön, Momme; Totterdell, Ian J.; Icarus Allen, J.

    2016-08-01

    Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed-layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our results show that some ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, manifested as an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. Models from low to intermediate complexity simulate an abrupt transition in the late 1970s (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next) while the transition is smoother in higher complexity models. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region. These models can therefore be considered useful tools to enhance our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.

  18. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004-2008 US Housing Market Bubble.

    PubMed

    Tan, James; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2016-01-01

    The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

  19. Patterns of regional hydroclimatic shifts: An analysis of changing hydrologic regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coopersmith, E. J.; Minsker, B. S.; Sivapalan, M.

    2014-03-01

    Temporal shifts in precipitation and runoff regime curves appear throughout the continental United States, but differ from region to region. This paper explores these regime shifts by building upon a hydroclimatic classification system that partitions the United States into clusters of similarly behaved catchments using four simple hydroclimatic indicators. Hydroclimate data from over four hundred catchments over a 55 year period (belonging to the MOPEX data set) are analyzed to reveal how the indicators have shifted before and after 1970, before and after 1975, and before and after 1980. Statistically significant hydroclimatic changes in these indicators are explored qualitatively, suggesting which catchments today might resemble other catchments tomorrow. Thus, a preview of current locations in one class under future conditions is provided by observing existing locations of another class. The classification system structure enables organization of these data, allowing patterns of regime change to emerge without highly specified models at each individual site. Regional analyses explore changes in mean seasonal precipitation/runoff regimes, including shifts in the daily variability of precipitation and runoff. Additionally, changes in regime curves of minimum and maximum precipitation/runoff observations are analyzed and discussed. Results indicate that after 1980, classifications typically found in the southeastern quarter of the United States have expanded northward and westward. Regionally, the Midwest and Rocky Mountains seem to demonstrate more frequent, but less intense storms after 1980, while southeastern catchments receive much less water in the form of precipitation and runoff than in previous years.

  20. Experimental Perturbations Modify the Performance of Early Warning Indicators of Regime Shift.

    PubMed

    Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Tamburello, Laura; Maggi, Elena; Bulleri, Fabio

    2015-07-20

    Ecosystems may shift abruptly between alternative states in response to environmental perturbations. Early warning indicators have been proposed to anticipate such regime shifts, but experimental field tests of their validity are rare. We exposed rocky intertidal algal canopies to a gradient of press perturbations and recorded the response of associated assemblages over 7 years. Reduced cover and biomass of algal canopies promoted the invasion of algal turfs, driving understory assemblages toward collapse upon total canopy removal. A dynamic model indicated the existence of a critical threshold separating the canopy- and turf-dominated states. We evaluated common indicators of regime shift as the system approached the threshold, including autocorrelation, SD, and skewness. These indicators captured changes in understory cover due to colonization of algal turfs. All indicators increased significantly as the system approached the critical threshold, in agreement with theoretical predictions. The performance of indicators changed when we superimposed a pulse disturbance on the press perturbation that amplified environmental noise. This treatment caused several experimental units to switch repeatedly between the canopy- and the turf-dominated state, resulting in a significant increase in overall variance of understory cover, a negligible effect on skewness and no effect on autocorrelation. Power analysis indicated that autocorrelation and SD were better suited at anticipating a regime shift under mild and strong fluctuations of the state variable, respectively. Our results suggest that regime shifts may be anticipated under a broad range of fluctuating conditions using the appropriate indicator. PMID:26166776

  1. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Daskalov, Georgi M.; Grishin, Alexander N.; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these “natural experiments” to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals. PMID:17548831

  2. Detecting regime shifts in marine systems with limited biological data: An example from southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzow, Michael A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Frusher, Stewart D.; Dann, Peter; Tuck, Geoffrey N.

    2016-02-01

    The ability to detect ecological regime shifts in a data-limited setting was investigated, using southeast Australian ecosystems as a model. Community variability was summarized for 1968-2008 with the first two principal components (PCs) of recruitment estimates for six fish stocks and reproductive parameters for four seabird species; regional climate was summarized for 1953-2008 with the first two PCs for three parameters (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity, surface nitrate) measured at two stations; and basin-scale climate variability was summarized for 1950-2012 with mean South Pacific SST and the first two PCs of detrended South Pacific SST. The first two biology PCs explained 45% of total community variability. The first two PCs of basin-scale SST showed abrupt shifts similar to "regime" behavior observed in other ocean basins, and the first PC of basin-scale SST showed significant covariation with the first PC of regional climate. Together, these results are consistent with the strong community variability and decadal-scale red noise climatic variability associated with Northern Hemisphere regime shifts. However, statistical model selection showed that the first two PCs of regional climate and the first PC of biology time series all exhibited linear change, rather than abrupt shifts. This result is consistent with previous studies documenting rapid linear change in the climate and biology of southeast Australian shelf ecosystems, and we conclude that there is no evidence for regime shift behavior in the region's ecology. However, analysis of a large set of previously-published biological time series from the North Pacific (n = 64) suggests that studies using fewer than ∼30 biological time series, such as this one, may be unable to detect regime shifts. Thus we conclude that the nature of ecological variability in the region cannot be determined with available data. The development of additional long-term biological observations is needed

  3. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2015-04-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is that the global atmospheric planetary waves can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the most recent 59-year period (1950-2008) have been identified based on Student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. The global forcing mechanism is described with a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate that examining the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries is a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from longwave (relatively smooth and less complex) to shorter

  4. Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M., Jr.; Xu, J.

    2014-08-01

    This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is the global atmospheric planetary waves that can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the recent 59 years (1950-2008) have been identified based on student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. Due to the multidisciplinary audience, the global forcing mechanism is described from a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from long wave (relatively smooth and less complex) to

  5. Regime-shifting streamflow processes: Implications for water supply reservoir operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the extent to which regime-like behavior in streamflow time series impacts reservoir operating policy performance. We begin by incorporating a regime state variable into a well-established stochastic dynamic programming model. We then simulate and compare optimized release policies—with and without the regime state variable—to understand how regime shifts affect operating performance in terms of meeting water delivery targets. Our optimization approach uses a Hidden Markov Model to partition the streamflow time series into a small number of separate regime states. The streamflow persistence structures associated with each state define separate month-to-month streamflow transition probability matrices for computing penalty cost expectations within the optimization procedure. The algorithm generates a four-dimensional array of release decisions conditioned on the within-year time period, reservoir storage state, inflow class, and underlying regime state. Our computational experiment is executed on 99 distinct, hypothetical water supply reservoirs fashioned from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Hydrologic Reference Stations. Results show that regime-like behavior is a major cause of suboptimal operations in water supply reservoirs; conventional techniques for optimal policy design may misguide the operator, particularly in regions susceptible to multiyear drought. Stationary streamflow models that allow for regime-like behavior can be incorporated into traditional stochastic optimization models to enhance the flexibility of operations.

  6. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  7. Climate change and potential reversal of regime shifts in desrt ecosystems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Globally, regime shifts from grasslands to shrublands (i.e., desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems are thought to be irreversible, similar to state changes in other ecosystems. The consequences of desertification, including loss of soil and nutrients to wind and water erosion, reductions ...

  8. Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982-2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982-1996 and 2000-2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997-1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

  9. Crossing the Threshold - Reviewed Evidence for Regime Shifts in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård Karlsson, J.; Destouni, G.; Peterson, G.; Gordon, L.

    2009-12-01

    The Arctic is rapidly changing, and the Arctic terrestrial ecosystems may respond to changing conditions in different ways. We review the evidence of regime shifts (ecosystem change from one set of mutually reinforcing feedbacks to another) in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems in relation to the hydrological cycle, as part of a larger interdisciplinary research project on Pan-Arctic ice-water-biogeochemical system responses and social-ecological resilience effects in a warming climate, which has in turn been part of the International Polar Year project Arctic-HYDRA. Such regime shifts may have implications for the Earth system as a whole, through changes in water flows and energy balance that yield feedbacks to hydrology and the local and global climate. Because the presence or absence of permafrost is a main control on local hydrological processes in the Arctic, we use the ecological response to permafrost warming to define three types of regime shifts: 1) Conversion of aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems due to draining of lakes and wetlands caused by permafrost degradation and thermokarst processes, which may have a large impact on local people and animals that depend on these ecosystems for food, domestic needs, and habitat, and on climate as the water conditions influence the direction of CO2 exchange. 2) Conversion of terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems as forests are being replaced by wet sedge meadows, bogs, and thermokarst ponds that favor aquatic birds and mammals, as thawing permafrost atop continuous permafrost undermines and destroys the root zone, leading to collapse and death of the trees. 3) Shifts in terrestrial ecosystems due to transition from tundra to shrubland and/or forest, caused by warming of air and soil, resulting in increased surface energy exchanges and albedo, which may in turn feed back to enhanced warming at the local-regional scale. We compare the impact, scale and key processes for each of these regime shifts, and assess the degree to

  10. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-01

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation. PMID:25607371

  11. Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chang Ik; Lee, Jae Bong; Kim, Suam; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2000-10-01

    There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987-89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.

  12. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  13. Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

  14. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R; Stow, Craig A; Sundstrom, Shana M

    2016-06-29

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. PMID:27335415

  15. Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arp, C. D.; Jones, B. M.; Lu, Z.; Whitman, M. S.

    2012-08-01

    The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003-2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

  16. Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands.

    PubMed

    Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hashizume, Masahiro; Satake, Akiko; Minakawa, Noboru

    2012-01-01

    Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission. PMID:21996447

  17. Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation. PMID:26132268

  18. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant.

  19. Regime-shifts in the southern Benguela shelf and inshore region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blamey, Laura K.; Howard, James A. E.; Agenbag, Jacobus; Jarre, Astrid

    2012-11-01

    Over the past two decades, several species have undergone distributional shifts in the southern Benguela. The commercially-important West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii is one of these, and its shift in distribution has had profound effects on the rest of the ecosystem along the south-west coast. Reasons for these shifts are not fully understood, but are probably linked to changes in environmental conditions. We applied a sequential t-test algorithm for analyzing regime shifts (STARS) to physical (wind and upwelling) and biological (rock-lobster catch and growth, Bank Cormorant abundance) data for the southern Benguela inshore region and performed sensitivity tests on each of the variables. Regime shifts were defined as ‘robust’ or ‘possible’ if they were detected for ⩾70% or ⩾60% of the sensitivity tests respectively. To corroborate the shifts detected by STARS, we then applied two additional methods: change point analysis and the Chow breakpoint test. The STARS method outperformed the other two methods because it could handle shorter time series and detect shifts towards the end of the time series, but most of the significant shifts detected by STARS were also detected by one or both of the other methods. A significant shift in Cape Point winter winds occurred in 1983, an El Niño year. However, measurement methodology changed during the same period and this is discussed in relation to the shift. A decline in rock-lobster growth rate occurred in the mid 1980s, and significant increases in upwelling variability and mean summer winds were detected in the early-to-mid 1990s - the same period in which rock lobster abundance underwent an eastward shift, declining on the west coast and increasing on the south-west coast. Bank Cormorants underwent respective declines and increases in the mid-to-late 1990s on the west and south-west coasts following the shift in lobsters. Further shifts in mean wind and upwelling were detected in the 2000s. These results

  20. Verification of a decadal prediction for the tropical Pacific and a discourse on regime shifts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cane, M. A.; Karspeck, A. R.; Seager, R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2004 we published a prediction claiming that for the 15 years 1999-2013 the tropical Pacific SST would be relatively cool, clearly colder than the preceding warm period of 1976-1998. We here present the verification of that decade-plus forecast. The prediction, which was successful, was made with the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) intermediate model, and thereby suggests that the tropics alone may account for what predictability there is. Even in idealized model studies the predictability we find is probably too small to be a usable improvement over climatology. More broadly, sequences of variability in the ZC model exhibit shifts in the time-mean state of the eastern equatorial Pacific resembling observed 'regime shifts', which supports the hypothesis that the source of tropical Pacific decadal variability is local to the tropics. We further suggest that decadal 'regime' behavior points to climate chaos rather than climate noise. Unless they are forced.

  1. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, Kelton W.; McCarthy, Matthew D.; Sherwood, Owen A.; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ13C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

  2. Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

    2015-12-18

    Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. PMID:26612834

  3. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  4. Regime Shifts in Lakes: Organic Carbon Dynamics and Whole Ecosystem Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of using sediment records to identify regime shifts in lakes has largely focussed on biological proxies, such as diatoms and chironomids. In this approach, long-term records of rapid ecological change are compared with independent proxies of the variables driving ecosystem change, for example, climate or catchment disturbance processes (hydrological budgets, deforestation, fire etc.). One of the main problems with this approach is that the sediment cores upon which the data analyses are made are taken from the central part of lakes, often at the deepest point. As a result, the ecological changes observed reflect pelagic (open water) processes rather than whole-lake responses. As most lakes (apart from hypertrophic systems) are dominated by benthic production it is unclear whether palaeolimnological assessments of regime shifts are representative of the whole lake response. Theoretically, this question can be addressed simply by using cores from shallow water. There are a number of problems with this approach, most notably the loss of temporal resolution in shallow water cores (due to the slower sediment accumulation rate) and the different biological assemblages in the shallow water (littoral) cores. There is a strong effect of water depth on the zonation and distribution of biological remains across any lake. An alternative approach therefore is to use total organic carbon [OC] accumulation rate as a measure of the whole lake response to see if there is, in fact, a regime shift at the whole lake scale. Here I present examples of Holocene OC accumulation rate responses to external forcing from shallow eutrophic and boreal lakes and compare them to biological records of structural ecological change to determine whether there has been a whole-lake regime shift.

  5. Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, Michael; Yu, Yan; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

    2015-10-01

    The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during 2007-2013. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

  6. Slow Wetland Response to Hydrological Change: Press Response or Regime Shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gell, P.; Kattel, G.

    2015-12-01

    Lakes vary in response to minor disturbances and, where stabilising feedbacks exist, tend to return to a particular stable state. If the disturbance is strong enough the stabilising forces may be overcome and the lake passes a threshold whereby it shifts into a new state controlled by a new suite of negative feedbacks. A typical switch in state is thought to occur in shallow lake systems whereby a pulse of sediment or nutrients may drive an increase in phytoplankton impacting the light regime. This impacts negatively on submerged plants which results in greater entrainment of benthic sediments and release of buried nutrients. These strengthen the competitive advantage of phytoplankton and entrench the lake in a new state. Multiple diatom-based sedimentary records of change in wetlands in the lower River Murray, Australia, have revealed assemblage turnover following river regulation and the impoundment of the estuary. Typically, benthic and epiphytic flora have yielded to planktonic and disturbance taxa indicative the loss of aquatic plants and a decline in the light regime consistent with regime shift theory. This evidence is supported by changes in the remains of macrophytes, cladocerans and stable isotopes which reveal the loss of plants and the shift to a pelagic system. However, rather than exhibiting flickering before changing abruptly, these systems have changed gradually over several decades. It could be argued that this represents a slow response to a threshold change. Alternatively, it is merely an ongoing response to the persistent pressure exerted by increased fluxes of sediments and nutrients.

  7. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  8. Historical Reconstruction of Regime Shifts in Amazon Oxbow Lakes - A Remote Sensing Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belcon, A. U.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Davenport, L.; Terborgh, J. W.

    2010-12-01

    Regime shifts in shallow lakes often have been associated with land-use change, increased nutrient loading and manipulation of trophic structure (Carpenter 2003). These shifts typically have been examined in lakes in temperate and boreal regions and within anthropogenically disturbed basins. By contrast in this study we examine a series of tropical floodplain lakes in a region of virtually no human disturbance to evaluate the effects of hydrological variability on ecosystem structure and dynamics. We reconstruct a timeline of regime shifts in Amazonian oxbow lakes (cochas) along the Manu River, Peru within the Manu National Park. The park contains the entire Manu watershed, including the river and oxbow lakes, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study both tropical lakes within a key region of high biodiversity, as well as regime shifts within a watershed that has not experienced any significant human influence. The Cocha Cashu Biological station was established on the banks of one of the Manu River’s oxbow lakes in the 1970 and has been operated by J. Terborgh since 1973. Observational reports from the station indicate that two types of flood events affect the floodplain lakes: “normal” floods that occur every year in the rainy season (October to May) and “megafloods” - extreme events that occur once a decade or so and sweep over the entire floodplain. Three megafloods occurred in the Manu River’s floodplain in the last 35 years: 1982, 1999 and 2003. The 2003 flood was followed rapidly by a regime shift at Cocha Cashu from phytoplankton, the state in which it had existed for the previous 30 years of observation, to a clear water lake with a luxuriant growth of submerged aquatic vegetation. Three years later in 2006, the lake switched again, this time to a state dominated by floating vegetation (Pistia stratiotes). It was not known at that time whether these changes were basin-wide and occurring at other lakes or whether they had occurred in the

  9. Large Dispersive Shift of Cavity Resonance Induced by a Superconducting Flux Qubit in the Straddling Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inomata, Kunihiro; Yamamoto, Tsuyoshi; Billangeon, Pierre-M.; Lin, Zhirong; Nakamura, Yasunobu; Tsai, Jaw-Shen; Koshino, Kazuki

    2013-03-01

    We demonstrate enhancement of the dispersive frequency shift in a coplanar waveguide resonator induced by a capacitively coupled superconducting flux qubit in the straddling regime. The magnitude of the observed shift, 80 MHz for the qubit-resonator detuning of 5 GHz, is quantitatively explained by the generalized Rabi model which takes into account the contribution of the qubit higher energy levels. By applying the enhanced dispersive shift to the qubit readout, we achieved 90 % contrast of the Rabi oscillations which is mainly limited by the energy relaxation of the qubit. We also discuss the qubit readout using a Josephson parametric amplifier. This work was supported by the MEXT Kakenhi ``Quantum Cybernetics'', the JSPS through its FIRST Program, and the NICT Commissioned Research.

  10. Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

    2015-11-01

    Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California

  11. Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence.

    PubMed

    Capon, Samantha J; Lynch, A Jasmyn J; Bond, Nick; Chessman, Bruce C; Davis, Jenny; Davidson, Nick; Finlayson, Max; Gell, Peter A; Hohnberg, David; Humphrey, Chris; Kingsford, Richard T; Nielsen, Daryl; Thomson, James R; Ward, Keith; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-11-15

    The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these

  12. Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-05-01

    Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing

  13. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    PubMed

    Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so. PMID:26372224

  14. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so. PMID:26372224

  15. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.

  16. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns.

    PubMed

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant. PMID:26066160

  17. An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Thomas A A; Johnson, Christopher N; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Brook, Barry W

    2014-03-01

    The mass extinction events during human prehistory are striking examples of ecological regime shifts, the causes of which are still hotly debated. In Australia, human arrival approximately 50 thousand years ago was associated with the continental-scale extinction of numerous marsupial megafauna species and a permanent change in vegetation structure. An alternative stable state persisted until a second regime shift occurred during the late Holocene, when the largest two remaining marsupial carnivores, the thylacine and devil, disappeared from mainland Australia. These extinctions have been widely attributed to the human-assisted invasion of a competing predator, the dingo. In this unusual case, the simultaneous effects of human "intensification" (population growth and technological advances) and climate change (particularly increased ENSO variability) have been largely overlooked. We developed a dynamic model system capable of simulating the complex interactions between the main predators (humans, thylacines, devils, dingoes) and their marsupial prey (macropods), which we coupled with reconstructions of human population growth and climate change for late-Holocene Australia. Because the strength of important interspecific interactions cannot be estimated directly, we used detailed scenario testing and sensitivity analysis to identify robust model outcomes and investigate competing explanations for the Holocene regime shift. This approach identified human intensification as the most probable cause, while also demonstrating the potential importance of synergies with the effects of climate change. Our models indicate that the prehistoric impact of humans on Australian mammals was not limited to the late Pleistocene (i.e., the megafaunal extinctions) but extended into the late Holocene. PMID:24804453

  18. Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

    2016-04-01

    Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

  19. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  20. Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2015-01-01

    In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

  1. Delay and noise induced regime shift and enhanced stability in gene expression dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Tao; Zhang, Chun; Zeng, Chunhua; Zhou, Guoqiong; Han, Qinglin; Tian, Dong; Zhang, Huili

    2014-12-01

    A quantitative model of autoregulatory gene expression involving a single gene with time delays and cross-correlated noise sources is investigated. The probability density and mean first passage time (MFPT) of the protein concentration are obtained. The impacts of multiplicative (σM) and additive (σA) noise intensities, cross-correlation intensity λ between two noises, time delays τ in the degradation process and θ in the synthesis process and time delay β in both processes on the probability density and MFPT of the regime shifts between high and low protein concentration states are discussed, respectively. These results indicate that (i) the regime shifts from a high (or low) protein concentration state to a low (or high) one can be induced by σM, λ and θ (or σA and β) (ii) the MFPT as a function of the noise intensity σM or σA exhibits one maximum value in the case of λ > 0 or θ > 0, this maximum is a signature of the noise's enhanced stability phenomenon for high protein concentration state; and (iii) τ and β can weaken the stability of high protein concentration state but, in contrast, λ and θ can enhance it in the gene expression dynamics.

  2. On the warm/cold regime shift in the South China Sea: Observation and modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swapna, P.; Gan, Jianping; Lau, Alexis; Fung, Jimmy

    2009-07-01

    Remote sensing data sets and a high-resolution three-dimensional regional ocean model were utilized to investigate the shifting of warm/cold regime and the associated sea level variation in the South China Sea (SCS) during 2000-2003. Both the altimetry data and the model results showed an increase in the sea level (warm phase) followed by an abrupt decrease (cold phase) in the SCS during 2000-2003. Heat budget calculations performed with the model revealed excess heat advection from the western Pacific warm pool into the SCS during the warm phase than the cold phase. The warm phase, which occurred during La Niña episodes, resulted from the intrusion of abnormally warmer western Pacific water that increased the heat content and thus sea level in the SCS. The cold phase, which occurred during El Niño episodes, was triggered by a reduction in the net atmospheric heat flux followed by cold water advection into the SCS. Decrease in the rate of precipitation minus evaporation ( P-E) also accounted for the falling of sea level during cold phase. The present study integrated the available remote sensing data and advanced numerical model to identify the time-dependent three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic forcing that are important in governing the warm/cold regime shift in the SCS.

  3. Colored Noises-Induced Regime Shifts in a Vegetation Ecological System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Qing-Lin; Zeng, Jia-Kui; Yang, Tao; Zhang, Chun; Long, Fei; Fu, Yun-Chang; Zeng, Chun-Hua

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we investigate the stationary probability distribution and mean first passage time in a vegetation ecological system, which is driven by cross-correlation between intrinsic and extrinsic colored noises as well as the nonzero cross-correlation in between. The impacts of the self-correlation time τ1 and τ2, the cross-correlation time τ3 and intensity k on the stationary probability distribution and mean first passage time are discussed, respectively. Our main results show that: (i) the self-correlation time τ1 can induce regime shifts from the desert state to the sustainable vegetation state, while the self-correlation time τ2, cross-correlation time τ3 and intensity k can induce regime shifts from the sustainable vegetation state to the desert state; and (ii) the self-correlation time τ1 or τ2 can enhance the stability of the sustainable vegetation biomass, while the cross-correlation time τ3 or strength k weakens the stability of the sustainable vegetation biomass. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 11305079, and the Introduction of Talent Capital Group Fund Project of Kunming University of Science and Technology under Grant No. KKZ3201407030

  4. Regime shift signatures from stable oxygen isotopic records of otoliths of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

    PubMed

    Gao, Y W

    2002-12-01

    The sudden collapse of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) may relate to ocean climate, or regime shifts as demonstrated in production of Pacific salmon. This paper reports the results of stable oxygen isotope ratio analyses (18O/16O or delta18OA) from 91 otoliths of cod over a period of about 20 years. Seasonal delta18OA variations of individual otoliths started at an initial value of about -0.5 to 0 per thousand VPDB, and then reached a stable level in the range of +2.5 to +3.5 per thousand VPDB after 4-5 years. The initial low values correspond to the natal sources of mature cod, while the higher delta18OA values represent the water conditions before the cod was caught. This pattern of delta18OA variation was observed over the life history of all cod examined. Furthermore, the calculated isotopic temperatures agreed with those obtained from summer bottom trawl survey, indicating that delta18OA of otoliths could be used as a thermometer in determining the ambient seawater temperature where the cod lived. Comparison of long-term delta18OA records and biological and meteorological observations suggested that decadal-scale ecosystem changes did occur in the late 1970s and early 1990s in Atlantic Canada, comparable to regime shifts occurred in the North Pacific. PMID:12725428

  5. Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wouters, N.; Dakos, V.; Edwards, M.; Serafim, M. P.; Valayer, P. J.; Cabral, H. N.

    2015-01-01

    One of the longest marine monitoring programs in the North Sea has been the spatiotemporal surveying of subsurface plankton since 1931. During this period a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s culminating in marked changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and in the fisheries of horse mackerel. Here we used the phytoplankton colour index, a visual biomass estimate, from 1948 to 2010 and total diatom abundance from 1958 to 2010 to test whether the well-documented regime shift could have been anticipated by the recently developed Early-Warning Signals for critical transitions (EWS). We estimated EWS, namely autocorrelation and standard deviation, within moving windows along the time series prior to the regime shift. We found that both statistics increased revealing that the North Sea ecosystem was becoming progressively unstable prior to the regime shift. Moreover, this high-resolution time series permitted us to test for robustness, error and significance of the EWS. We did that by dividing the time series into independent blocks and estimating EWS after bootstrapping and randomising the blocks. This alternative approach confirmed the robustness of the EWS with limited associated errors. In particular, we found that the warning was significantly evident years before the onset of the regime shift. We conclude that EWS may provide robust and timely warning for upcoming regime shifts depending on the quality and quantity of recorded data in marine ecosystems.

  6. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P. Suresh C.

    2014-11-01

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.

  7. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America

    PubMed Central

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-01-01

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910–1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  8. Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

    2014-07-15

    Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing. PMID:24982132

  9. Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

    2012-03-01

    Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function. PMID:22624216

  10. Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

    PubMed

    Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

    2015-08-24

    In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations. PMID:26368200

  11. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

    PubMed

    Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

  12. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

  13. Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

    PubMed Central

    Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

  14. How the origin of organic compounds affects vegetation patchiness and regime shifts in ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dekker, S. C.; Nierop, K. G. J.; Mao, J.

    2012-04-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a common property of soils and has been reported from all inhabited continents. It can have negative consequences for plant growth due to stagnation of water infiltration. Recently, the understanding of SWR has increased, mainly for the soil physical mechanisms. Although it is known that SWR-causing compounds, so-called SWR-biomarkers, stem from organic matter, the types and their origin (leaf, root, microbial decomposed organic matter, algae), are largely unknown. At the ecosystem scale, positive feedbacks between vegetation and increased soil water due to increased infiltration lead to self-organization of vegetation patchiness and abrupt shifts in ecosystem for semi-arid regions (Rietkerk et al. 2004, Dekker et al. 2007). Organic matter can enhance infiltration capacity but can also interrupt water infiltration through SWR. In this research we hypothesize that biomarkers at the molecular level can explain spatial patterns of water infiltration while the origin of biomarkers determines whether they can trigger or halt regime shifts in patchy vegetation. Therefore, we analyze SWR-biomarkers found in soil and relate them to their origin and the extent of SWR for patchy vegetated sites. Vegetation-hydrology interactions at the ecosystem scale are unraveled by combining molecular level mechanisms of SWR with soil physical mechanisms at macro-level in spatial ecohydrological models. Our aim is to understand the effects of SWR at the molecular level and emerging consequences at ecosystem level.

  15. Hydrological extremes in the Aksu-Tarim River Basin: Climatology and regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Hui; Borth, Hartmut; Fraedrich, Klaus; Schneidereit, Andrea; Zhu, Xiuhua

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed to classify and investigate hydrological drought and wetness conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The leading time and spatial variability of hydrological drought has been investigated by applying a principal component analysis and Varimax rotation to the SPI on a time scale of 24 months. The results suggest that the western basin is characterized by a clear tendency towards wetter conditions after the middle of the 1980s, which results from an increase in the number of wet extremes and can be considered as a regime shift. Subdividing the period of analysis into two parts (1961-1986 and 1987-2010) this change can be clearly seen in a shift of the probability distribution function of precipitation events. Composite analyses of monthly mean geopotential height fields and wind fields of the ERA-40 data set show that enhanced wetness in the Tarim River Basin after the middle of 1980s is closely related to cyclonic anomalies on the European continent and circulation anomalies over mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. Further correlation analysis between the principal components of SPI and large circulation indices shows that hydrological extremes in the Tarim River Basin correlate with indices related to the polar vortex and subtropical high.

  16. The Demise of the Circumboreal Mammoth Steppe as an Ecological Regime Shift: Drivers and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, D. H.; Groves, P.; Grosse, G.; Gaglioti, B.; Kunz, M.

    2011-12-01

    abundance grass and sedges, firm substrates, and unusual mixtures of steppe and tundra vegetation. What caused the demise of the Mammoth Steppe is unclear, however understanding what maintained it over space and time would greatly aid this discussion. The habitat shift began ca. 12,500 14C yr BP and continued for approximately 2000 years. It coincided with a shift from well-drained, mineral soils to poorly drained, organic-rich ones. This regime shift may have been more significant than changes during previous interglacial climatic shifts as most megafaunal species adapted to life in the Mammoth Steppe experienced radical range reductions and, in some cases, global extinction during this period.

  17. Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conners, M. E.; Hollowed, A. B.; Brown, E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey.

  18. Regime shift in sandy beach microbial communities following Deepwater Horizon oil spill remediation efforts.

    PubMed

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  19. Regime Shift in Sandy Beach Microbial Communities following Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Remediation Efforts

    PubMed Central

    Engel, Annette Summers; Gupta, Axita A.

    2014-01-01

    Sandy beaches support a wide variety of underappreciated biodiversity that is critical to coastal ecosystems. Prior to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the diversity and function of supratidal beach sediment microbial communities along Gulf of Mexico coastlines were not well understood. As such, it was unclear if microbial community compositional changes would occur following exposure to beached oil, if indigenous communities could biodegrade oil, or how cleanup efforts, such as sand washing and sediment redistribution, would impact microbial ecosystem resiliency. Transects perpendicular to the shoreline were sampled from public beaches on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, over one year. Prior to oil coming onshore, elevated levels of bacteria associated with fecal contamination were detected (e.g., Enterobacteriales and Campylobacterales). Over time, significant shifts within major phyla were identified (e.g., Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria) and fecal indicator groups were replaced by taxa affiliated with open-ocean and marine systems (e.g., Oceanospirillales, Rhodospirillales, and Rhodobacterales). These new bacterial groups included putative hydrocarbon degraders, similar to those identified near the oil plume offshore. Shifts in the microbial community composition strongly correlated to more poorly sorted sediment and grain size distributional changes. Natural oceanographic processes could not account for the disrupted sediment, especially from the backshore well above the maximum high-tide levels recorded at these sites. Sand washing and tilling occurred on both open beaches from August through at least December 2010, which were mechanisms that could replace fecal indicator groups with open-ocean groups. Consequently, remediation efforts meant to return beaches to pre-spill compositions caused a regime shift that may have added potential ecosystem function, like hydrocarbon degradation, to the sediment. Future research will

  20. Altered peat hydrophysical properties following drainage and wildfire increases peatland vulnerability to ecosystem regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Kettridge, Nick; Sherwood, James; Granath, Gustaf

    2015-04-01

    Northern peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reservoir, composed largely of legacy carbon which is no longer part of the active carbon cycle. However, it is unclear whether this legacy carbon is vulnerable as a result of enhanced peat smouldering and combustion under the moderate drying conditions predicted for northern peatlands as a result of climate change and/or disturbance from forestry, mining, and associated transport development. A significant loss in legacy carbon as a result of wildfire has already been observed in smaller tropical peatlands where deep peat soils have been destabilized due to severe drainage and a shift in vegetation. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland several decades post drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition, previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands, when accompanied by wildfire. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire resulted in a shift of the peat surface down the peat profile, exposing denser peat at the surface. In undisturbed northern peatlands where depth of burn is typically low, low-density near-surface peats help regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture availability post-fire, both of which are favourable to Sphagnum recolonization. As a result of drainage and fire at the study site, the self-regulating properties of the low-density Sphagnum surface were lost. We demonstrate that changes in peat hydrophysical properties increased hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery leading to the conversion to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy carbon stored in the peat.

  1. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  2. Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

    PubMed

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  3. Regime Shift by an Exotic Nitrogen-Fixing Shrub Mediates Plant Facilitation in Primary Succession

    PubMed Central

    Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and

  4. From Regime Shifts to Planetary Boundaries: How Non-Linear System Behavior is Manifest from Local to Global Scales.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Although they have been building for decades, changes in the environment are not always smooth and gradual. In fact, the most important changes - such as those to our ecosystems and natural resources - are often sudden and large. Recent research suggests that instead of following a predictable linear path along existing trends, environmental systems often exhibit highly non-linear behavior, including very abrupt shifts in condition. In fact, the complex, non-linear workings of the planet's biological, physical and human systems can give rise to sudden, often catastrophic, environmental disasters. Recent scientific advances have shown can exhibit "tipping points" or "regime shifts". Examples of regime shifts range from lake eutrophication, desertification, and forest die-back, across many regions of the world. But do such regime shifts exist at the global scale? A recent synthesis of global environmental research (published by Rockstrom et al., in Nature, 2010) suggested that there may be "Planetary Boundaries", beyond which the global environment would enter conditions not seen in the Holocene era. In this presentation, I will review case studies of environmental regime shifts at regional scales, and show how they may or may not operate at global scales. Managing such complex systems, across regional and global scales, will be a fundamental challenge as humanity charts attempts to chart a more sustainability path.

  5. North and South Atlantic Bidecadal SL variability: Rossby Waves, AMOC fingerprints and Regime Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vianna, M. L.; Menezes, V. V.

    2014-12-01

    The relationship between the North and South Atlantic bidecadal sea level (SL) oscillations in the twentieth century (1908-2008) is investigated using SODA 2.2.4 reanalysis and 102 monthly mean SL time series from TG stations provided by PSMSL. Bidecadal SL signal extraction was done using our method of subjectively choosing groupings of space-time data into non-overlapping period bands by use of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)/ Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) analysis. A CEOF analysis of the SODA bidecadal band shows dominance of 22-24 year periods. Propagating bidecadal mode expansions were then determined through this analysis, which gives two principal modes. The first mode is dominant from 1915 to 1965 and the second from 1970 onward. The amplitude variabilities obtained suggests the presence of regime shifts, which coincide in time with shifts actually observed in European climate and South African lobster fisheries. The first mode is characterized by states with North and South Atlantic subtropical gyres in phase, while tropical and subpolar regions are in opposite phase relative to them. The second mode is characterized by the subpolar gyre and North subtropical gyre almost in quadrature, with North and South subtropical gyres out of phase. The evolution mechanism of this latter mode is related to east-west density contrasts and westward propagating Rossby waves. These waves show phase speeds dominated by geostrophic self-advection of density anomalies relative to the mean meridional density gradient as known from previous studies, but are shown to be additionally influenced by bottom topography. The oscillations caused by these waves are shown to have phase differences (quadrature in the North Atlantic) with regional indices of bidecadal AMOC oscillations. A number of SL-AMOC fingerprints are also reviewed, and a new eastern equatorial fingerprint is proposed.

  6. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

  7. Probing the integration of land use and watershed planning in a shifting governance regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plummer, Ryan; de Grosbois, Danuta; de Loë, Rob; VelanišKis, Jonas

    2011-09-01

    Effective governance that contributes to the integration of water management and land use planning is essential for successful protection of drinking water sources and, ultimately, provision of safe drinking water. In many jurisdictions, land use planning and watershed management occur on separate tracks. This article examines the prospects for integration of these two critical processes. A multicase study approach is used, focusing on the specific objective of protection of drinking water sources. Experiences in three case study watershed regions in Ontario, Canada (Grand River, Upper Thames, and Lake Simcoe), were analyzed. The goal was to identify the extent to which source water protection components and indicators are expressed in land use and watershed-based planning documents. Similarities and differences among the watershed regions are distinguished through a cross-case analysis. The results suggest that a shifting governance regime for drinking water safety in Ontario is contributing to integration between land use and water management. However, proactive and ongoing efforts are required to ensure that integration occurs and that barriers to integration are addressed. Timely guidelines, incentive-based tools, up-to-date and accurate information, and adequate financial resources are essential.

  8. Regime shifts in muddy estuaries: tidal response to river deepening and canalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterwerp, J. C.; Wang, Z. B.

    2012-04-01

    Johan C. Winterwerp, Zheng Bing Wang A number of tidal rivers in Europe, amongst which the Ems River in Germany/Netherlands, and the Loire River in France are characterized by hyper-concentrated conditions with pronounced layers of fluid mud and suspended sediment concentrations exceeding 30 g/l. From an ecological point of view the sedimentary conditions in these rivers are highly problematic, as oxygen levels and primary production are very low. The present study aims at defining the conditions at which a regime shift in these rivers may occur, yielding a transition from a "normal estuary" with a classical estuarine turbidity maximum governed by estuarine circulation mainly, to hyper-concentrated conditions where sediment dynamics are mainly governed by tidal asymmetry. We hypothesize that these hyper-concentrated conditions are the result of large amplification of the tide and strong flood-dominant conditions, induced by ongoing deepening and embanking of the tidal river. Indeed, today many European rivers, amongst which the Loire and Ems, can be classified as synchronous, with an almost constant tidal amplitude along the main part of the river. Here we present the behavior of tidal asymmetry in response to deepening and embanking based on an analytical solution of the one-dimensional, linearized water movement in a converging channel, with or without intertidal area.

  9. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia.

    PubMed

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  10. Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wenjun; Jin, Fei-Fei; Turner, Andrew

    2014-06-01

    In the two most recent decades, more frequent drought struck southern China during autumn, causing an unprecedented water crisis. We found that the increasing autumn drought is largely attributed to an ENSO regime shift. Compared to traditional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events have occurred more frequently, with maximum sea surface temperature anomalies located near the dateline. Southern China usually experiences precipitation surplus during the autumn of EP El Niño years, while the CP El Niño tends to produce precipitation deficits. Since the CP El Niño has occurred more frequently while EP El Niño has become less common after the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of autumn drought. This has implications for increasing precipitation shortages over southern China in a warming world, in which CP El Niño events have been suggested to become more common.

  11. Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

    PubMed Central

    Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

  12. The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

  13. The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Background Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. Principal Findings In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Conclusions Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key

  14. Shifting Regimes and Changing Interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., Plankton Community from 1962–1994

    PubMed Central

    Francis, Tessa B.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Scheuerell, Mark D.; Katz, Stephen L.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Hampton, Stephanie E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962–1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers. PMID:25338087

  15. Regional differences in the response of mesozooplankton to oceanographic regime shifts in the northeast Asian marginal seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Young Shil; Jung, Sukgeun; Zuenko, Yury; Choi, Ilsu; Dolganova, Natalia

    2012-05-01

    To understand responses of marine ecosystems to climate changes in the northwestern Pacific, especially responses to the 1998 regime shift, we related month-specific variability in hydrographic conditions to long-term changes in mesozooplankton in four regions adjacent to the Korean peninsula: the eastern Yellow Sea (EYS), northern East China Sea (NECS), and southwestern and northwestern Japan/East Sea (SJES and NJES). Sea surface (10-m depth) temperature in February has increased since the early 1990s in all four regions. Sea surface temperature in April and June has increased since the late 1990s in the SJES and EYS. Surface salinity has decreased, especially since the late 1990s, except NJES. Biomass of mesozooplankton in Korean sea regions (the EYS, NECS and SJES) began to increase after the early 1990s, with sharp increases after the late 1990s, indicating a regime shift triggered by the increased seawater temperatures. Unusually higher biomass was also occasionally observed in April, June or October after the late 1990s in the EYS and NECS. Abundances of the four major zooplankton groups (copepods, amphipods, chaetognaths and euphausiids) have generally increased since the late 1990s. The pattern of change in zooplankton abundance varied depending on taxonomic group and region, but we concluded that the four seas responded to the 1989 or 1998 regime shifts with respect to water temperature, salinity and zooplankton. We detected an additional sudden shift in both the zooplankton community and fisheries catch in the Korean waters, which we speculated was associated with the strong 1982/1983 El Niño event. The 1982-1983 shift was characterized by increased dominance of copepods, and was pronounced in the EYS, which is strongly influenced by river discharge. The results highlight the need for further retrospective analyses of regional ecosystems.

  16. An ecosystem modelling framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into fisheries management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Caihong; Perry, R. Ian; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Schweigert, Jake; Liu, Huizhu

    2013-08-01

    Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EBM) attempt to account for fishing, climate variability and species interactions when formulating fisheries management advice. Ecosystem models that investigate the combined effects of ecological processes are vital to support the implementation of EBM by assessing the effectiveness of management strategies in an ecosystem context. In this study, an individual-based ecosystem model was used to demonstrate how species at different trophic levels and of different life histories responded to climate regimes and how well different single- or various multi-species fisheries at different intensities perform in terms of human benefits (yield) and trade-offs (fishery closures) as well as their impacts on the ecosystem. In addition, other performance indicators were also used to evaluate management strategies. The simulations indicated that under no fishing, each species responded to the regimes differently due to different life history traits and different trophic interactions. Fishing at the level of natural mortality (F = M) produced the highest yields within each fishery, however, an F adjusted for the current productivity conditions (regime) resulted in much fewer fishery closures compared with F = M, indicating the advantage of implementing a policy of a regime-specific F from the stand point of conservation and fishery stability. Furthermore, a regime-specific F strategy generally resulted in higher yield and fewer fishery closures compared with F = 0.5M. Other performance indicators also pointed to the advantage of using a regime-specific F strategy in terms of the stability of both ecosystem and fishery production. As a specific example, fishing the predators of Pacific herring under all multi-species fisheries scenarios increased the yield of Pacific herring and reduced the number of herring fishery closures. This supports the conclusion that an exploitation strategy which is balanced across all trophic levels

  17. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    PubMed Central

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  18. Early Detection of Regime Shifts in Complex Systems from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    The central goal of sustainability is the maintenance of environmental conditions, which are favorable to human existence. A critically important element then is the resilience of the dynamic regime that one wishes to sustain. Resilient systems are able to withstand perturbations...

  19. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

    PubMed

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  20. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime.

  1. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

  2. Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

  3. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models. PMID:26283344

  4. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes.

    PubMed

    Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Chazdon, Robin; Salk, Carl; Pajak, Michal; Sendzimir, Jan; Andersson, Krister

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes' 'ecological resilience', or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of 'engineering resilience', the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  5. Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

  6. Analyzing sustainability transitions as a shift between socio-metabolic regimes

    PubMed Central

    Fischer-Kowalski, Marina

    2011-01-01

    This essay seeks to specify the theoretical choices and assumptions involved in studying sociometabolic transitions, such as sustainability transitions, in a way that distinguishes them from mere “changes”. These generalizations draw on experiences with the empirical analysis of historical transitions on various scale levels. This perspective is illustrated by using material and energy flow data to demonstrate global sociometabolic regime transitions during the 20th century. PMID:27066392

  7. Decadal Supbolar Gyre Variability Linked to MWA-LIA Climate Regime Shift in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, E.; Zanchettin, D.; Lohmann, K.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recent paleoceanographic reconstructions of subpolar North Atlantic variability during the last millennium describe oceanic conditions associated with a stronger subpolar gyre (SPG) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) followed by a weak phase during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850 CE). Yet the mechanism behind this relatively abrupt SPG shift remains unclear. Here, we investigate the SPG dynamics during the last millennium in an ensemble of three transient climate simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute-Earth system model. In particular, we focus on the dynamics underlying a decadal-scale SPG transition from an initial strong to a later weak state, which is found in one of the simulations and whose features are similar to the reconstructed event. Our results indicate that the simulated shift is triggered by a rapid increase in the freshwater transport from the Arctic toward the subpolar North Atlantic, which causes a broad freshening of the upper Labrador Sea. As a result, upper ocean densities largely decrease in the area, leading to a shut-down of oceanic deep mixing and, eventually, to a substantial weakening of the SPG. This event triggers a series of long-lasting feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulations, sea-ice extent, deep water formation in the Labrador Sea, and upper-ocean east-west density gradient within the SPG, all contributing to maintain the North Atlantic in an anomalous state for at least 200 years. A reorganization of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean-atmosphere coupled system sustained by internal feedbacks acting on multicentennial time scales can therefore be initiated by changes in the SPG. Such reorganization, by contrast, does not depend on a long-lasting weakening of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation or a shift in large-scale modes of atmospheric variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The simulated SPG shift occurs right after a cluster of relatively small volcanic

  8. Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Carles; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa; Alonso, Miguel; Duran, Concha; Jiménez, Pere J; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

    2012-02-01

    The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. PMID:22178026

  9. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    PubMed

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  10. Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Elser, James J.; Elser, Timothy J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this “Green Revolution” has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007–2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

  11. Indications for a North Atlantic ocean circulation regime shift at the onset of the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleussner, C.-F.; Divine, D. V.; Donges, J. F.; Miettinen, A.; Donner, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    A prominent characteristic of the reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature signal over the last millennium is the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we report indications for a non-linear regime shift in the North Atlantic ocean circulation at the onset of the LIA. Specifically, we apply a novel statistical test based on horizontal visibility graphs to two ocean sediment August sea-surface temperature records from the Norwegian Sea and the central subpolar basin and find robust indications of time-irreversibility in both records during the LIA onset. Despite a basin-wide cooling trend, we report an anomalous warming in the central subpolar basin during the LIA that is reproduced in ensemble simulations with the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α as a result of a non-linear regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic ocean circulation. The identified volcanically triggered non-linear transition in the model simulations provides a plausible explanation for the signatures of time-irreversibility found in the ocean sediment records. Our findings indicate a potential multi-stability of the North Atlantic ocean circulation and its importance for regional climate change on centennial time scales.

  12. Regime Shift and Microbial Dynamics in a Sequencing Batch Reactor for Nitrification and Anammox Treatment of Urine ▿†

    PubMed Central

    Bürgmann, Helmut; Jenni, Sarina; Vazquez, Francisco; Udert, Kai M.

    2011-01-01

    The microbial population and physicochemical process parameters of a sequencing batch reactor for nitrogen removal from urine were monitored over a 1.5-year period. Microbial community fingerprinting (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and quantitative PCR on nitrogen cycle functional groups were used to characterize the microbial population. The reactor combined nitrification (ammonium oxidation)/anammox with organoheterotrophic denitrification. The nitrogen elimination rate initially increased by 400%, followed by an extended period of performance degradation. This phase was characterized by accumulation of nitrite and nitrous oxide, reduced anammox activity, and a different but stable microbial community. Outwashing of anammox bacteria or their inhibition by oxygen or nitrite was insufficient to explain reactor behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, e.g., regime-shift analysis of chemical and physical parameters and cluster and ordination analysis of the microbial community, indicated that the system had experienced a rapid transition to a new stable state that led to the observed inferior process rates. The events in the reactor can thus be interpreted to be an ecological regime shift. Constrained ordination indicated that the pH set point controlling cycle duration, temperature, airflow rate, and the release of nitric and nitrous oxides controlled the primarily heterotrophic microbial community. We show that by combining chemical and physical measurements, microbial community analysis and ecological theory allowed extraction of useful information about the causes and dynamics of the observed process instability. PMID:21724875

  13. Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, P.J.; Piatt, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    A shift in ocean climate during the late 1970s triggered a reorganization of community structure in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem, as evidenced in changing catch composition on long-term (1953 to 1997) small-mesh trawl surveys. Forage species such as pandalid shrimp and capelin declined because of recruitment failure and predation, and populations have not yet recovered. Total trawl catch biomass declined > 50% and remained low through the 1980s. In contrast, recruitment of high trophic-level groundfish improved during the 1980s, yielding a >250% increase in catch biomass during the 1990s. This trophic reorganization apparently had negative effects on piscivorous sea birds and marine mammals.

  14. Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, P.J.; Piatt, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    A shift in ocean climate during the late 1970s triggered a reorganization of community structure in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem, as evidenced in changing catch composition on long-term (1953-1997) small-mesh trawl surveys. Forage species such as pandalid shrimp and capelin declined because of recruitment failure and predation, and populations have not yet recovered. Total trawl catch biomass declined >50% and remained low through the 1980s. In contrast, recruitment of high trophic-level groundfish improved during the 1980s, yielding a >250% increase in catch biomass during the 1990s. This trophic reorganization apparently had negative effects on piscivorous sea birds and marine mammals.

  15. Intra-annual rainfall regime shifts competitive interactions between coastal sage scrub and invasive grasses.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Leah J; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-02-01

    Changes in rainfall distribution, generally predicted by many climate models, can affect resource dynamics and ecosystem function. While little studied, intra-annual rainfall distribution may have particularly strong effects on competitive interactions. Here, we test whether increased rainfall event size and decreased frequency within a growing season can influence competitive dynamics related to the invasion of exotic annual grasses in California coastal sage scrub (CSS). We hypothesized that larger rainfall events and decreased frequency will increase the competitive ability of native CSS species: a deeper root system will permit greater water use during dry periods between pulses and enhance their resource depletion effect on more shallow-rooted grasses. We planted grass and CSS seedlings in an additive competition design under three rainfall treatments: frequent small events, infrequent large events, and infrequent small events. The first two treatments had the same total rainfall but different frequency, while the second and third treatments had the same frequency but different total rainfall. Rainfall treatment altered the competitive interactions between CSS and grasses. In the first year, the competitive effect of annual grasses on shrub seedlings was strongest under the frequent small rainfall regime where they reduced deep soil moisture and light. In year two, the established shrubs began to exert strong competitive effects on grasses, and these effects were strongest under the infrequent small rainfall regime (low total rain) where they reduced shallow soil moisture and decreased grass stomatal conductance. Results suggest that reductions in both rainfall frequency and total rainfall may be important to competitive interactions, and can alter plant community composition and invasion when species have different rooting depths and different responses to soil moisture. PMID:24669735

  16. Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.

    PubMed

    Defriez, Emma J; Sheppard, Lawrence W; Reid, Philip C; Reuman, Daniel C

    2016-06-01

    During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized. PMID:26810148

  17. Decadal variability in the abundance of Pacific saury and its response to climatic/oceanic regime shifts in the northwestern subtropical Pacific during the last half century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Ueno, Yasuhiro; Suda, Maki; Akamine, Taturo

    2004-12-01

    Pacific saury ( Cololabis saira) is one of the most important, small-sized, pelagic fishes in the North Pacific. Using correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), we examined the relationships between climatic/oceanographic indices (Asian monsoon index (MOI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index (NPI), Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, air temperature, wind velocity, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface current velocity (SCV) in the Kuroshio axis), and abundance/biological indices of Pacific saury (adult catch, catch per unit effort, i.e., CPUE, condition factor, and body length and larval density) in order to detect the response of Pacific saury abundance to the recent climatic/oceanic regime shifts (1976/1977, 1987/1988, and 1997/1998). Our oceanographic analyses show that notable regime shifts occurred in 1987/1988 and possibly 1997/1998 in the Kuroshio region, while the same kind of regime shift was not readily apparent there in 1976/1977. Results of our oceanographic/biological analyses show that the decadal-scale variation pattern in Pacific saury abundance responded well to the regime shifts of 1987/1988 and 1997/1998. These results indicate that only the regime shifts which occurred in the Kuroshio region can affect Pacific saury abundance. Our results also showed that the abundance and biological indices of saury significantly correlated with both the SSTs in the northwestern Kuroshio waters and the SCV in the Kuroshio axis in winter. These correlations suggest that winter oceanographic conditions in the Kuroshio region strongly affect the early survival process and determine the recruitment success of Pacific saury. The abundance of other major small pelagic species also changed greatly around 1989, suggesting that the regime shift in the late 1980s occurred in the pelagic ecosystem basin. We concluded that Pacific saury could be used as a bio-indicator of regime shifts in the

  18. Dynamical regime shifts in the North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka as revealed by terrestrial proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franke, Jasper G.; Donner, Reik V.

    2016-04-01

    The climate during the last two millennia is in general considered to be exceptionally stable compared to prior times. Nevertheless, there have been different episodes of distinguishable climate dynamics, most prominently the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). In this study, we test a set of terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe for indications of temporary time-reversal asymmetry implying that during the thus identified periods of time, the data cannot be described by a linear Gaussian process and thus exhibit marked (possibly nonlinear) dynamics. Our analysis reveals that the onsets of both the MCA and the LIA are characterized by such complex dynamics indicating possible dynamical regime shifts in the regional climate system. Furthermore, the end of the Roman Warm Period as well as the 1.4k event are accompanied by similar signatures of time-reversal asymmetry.

  19. Evolution of Cenozoic seawater lithium isotopes: Coupling of global denudation regime and shifting seawater sinks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gaojun; West, A. Joshua

    2014-09-01

    consistent with a change in the global denudation regime as a result of increasing continental erosion rate through the Cenozoic. Changes in denudation may have meant increasing climate sensitivity of weathering over time but do not require globally supply-limited and thus entirely climate-insensitive weathering in the early Cenozoic.

  20. Nonlinear Phenomena of Plasma Waves in a Kinetic Regime: Frequency Shifts, Packets, and Transverse Localization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fahlen, Jay Edward

    The generation and propagation of nonlinear plasma waves is studied using particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. We concentrate on regimes of interest to inertial fusion and space physics in which wave-particle interactions are important. Experiments soon to be performed at the National Ignition Facility require the understanding and control of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) for their success. The SRS instability occurs when an incident laser decays into a backscattered light wave and an electron plasma wave. Recent computer simulations of SRS indicate that the daughter plasma waves have finite longitudinal and transverse extent and that they reach large amplitudes. The nonlinear behavior of such waves determines the growth, saturation, and recurrence of SRS. However, little attention has been paid to the behavior of plasma waves having these properties, and their study in SRS simulations is complicated by the large-amplitude light waves associated with the instability. Most theory and simulation work on SRS and its daughter plasma waves has been limited to infinite plane waves, often in the one-dimension limit. This thesis therefore studies isolated electron plasma waves over a wide range of parameters in one and multiple dimensions using PIC simulations. The simulations are performed with the goal of understanding the wave's behavior for parameters relevant to SRS, but the normalized parameters have general applicability to a range of densities and temperatures. Accordingly, an external ponderomotive driver generates traveling waves, driving them either continuously to study their peak amplitude and saturation mechanisms, or impulsively to study their propagation. Several novel effects are identified and characterized, including nonlinear resonance for driven waves, wave packet etching for finite-length waves, and localization and local damping for finite-width waves. Finite-length wave packets are found to erode away at a constant rate due to particle trapping

  1. Shift in precipitation regime promotes interspecific hybridization of introduced Coffea species.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Céline; Despinoy, Marc; Hamon, Serge; Hamon, Perla; Salmon, Danyela; Akaffou, Doffou Sélastique; Legnate, Hyacinthe; de Kochko, Alexandre; Mangeas, Morgan; Poncet, Valérie

    2016-05-01

    . However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow. PMID:27096083

  2. The change of nature and the nature of change in agricultural landscapes: Hydrologic regime shifts modulate ecological transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Takbiri, Zeinab; Czuba, Jonathan A.; Schwenk, Jon

    2015-08-01

    Hydrology in many agricultural landscapes around the world is changing in unprecedented ways due to the development of extensive surface and subsurface drainage systems that optimize productivity. This plumbing of the landscape alters water pathways, timings, and storage, creating new regimes of hydrologic response and driving a chain of environmental changes in sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling, and river ecology. In this work, we nonparametrically quantify the nature of hydrologic change in the Minnesota River Basin, an intensively managed agricultural landscape, and study how this change might modulate ecological transitions. During the growing season when climate effects are shown to be minimal, daily streamflow hydrographs exhibit sharper rising limbs and stronger dependence on the previous-day precipitation. We also find a changed storage-discharge relationship and show that the artificial landscape connectivity has most drastically affected the rainfall-runoff relationship at intermediate quantiles. Considering the whole year, we show that the combined climate and land use change effects reduce the inherent nonlinearity in the dynamics of daily streamflow, perhaps reflecting a more linearized engineered hydrologic system. Using a simplified dynamic interaction model that couples hydrology to river ecology, we demonstrate how the observed hydrologic change and/or the discharge-driven sediment generation dynamics may have modulated a regime shift in river ecology, namely extirpation of native mussel populations. We posit that such nonparametric analyses and reduced complexity modeling can provide more insight than highly parameterized models and can guide development of vulnerability assessments and integrated watershed management frameworks.

  3. Skin Bioprinting: Impending Reality or Fantasy?

    PubMed

    Ng, Wei Long; Wang, Shuai; Yeong, Wai Yee; Naing, May Win

    2016-09-01

    Bioprinting provides a fully automated and advanced platform that facilitates the simultaneous and highly specific deposition of multiple types of skin cells and biomaterials, a process that is lacking in conventional skin tissue-engineering approaches. Here, we provide a realistic, current overview of skin bioprinting, distinguishing facts from myths. We present an in-depth analysis of both current skin bioprinting works and the cellular and matrix components of native human skin. We also highlight current limitations and achievements, followed by design considerations and a future outlook for skin bioprinting. The potential of bioprinting with converging opportunities in biology, material, and computational design will eventually facilitate the fabrication of improved tissue-engineered (TE) skin constructs, making bioprinting skin an impending reality. PMID:27167724

  4. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring

  5. Suprasternal approach for impending tracheo-innominate artery fistula.

    PubMed

    Fujimoto, Yoshifumi; Hirose, Keiichi; Ota, Noritaka; Murata, Masaya; Ide, Yujiro; Tosaka, Yuko; Tachi, Maiko; Sakamoto, Kisaburo

    2010-09-01

    We report preventive innominate artery division or ligation through a suprasternal approach for impending tracheo-innominate artery fistula (TIF) with recurrent airway oozing in patients with severe neuromuscular disease. Our approach is less invasive and a favorable procedure as preventive surgery for impending TIF. PMID:20859729

  6. Export flux and stability as regulators of community composition in pelagic marine biological communities: Implications for regime shifts [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laws, Edward

    2004-02-01

    Regime shifts occur when a system transitions from one stable configuration to another. Such abrupt changes in biological communities may reflect small changes in environmental conditions such as temperature, oxygen concentration, or irradiance. Although it seems clear that biological communities are not randomly organized with respect to their functional components, there is disagreement concerning the factors that control that organization. In this paper, I examine the implications of assuming that the composition of pelagic marine biological communities evolves to a condition of maximum stability or resilience. At temperatures of 25 °C or less, a model based on this hypothesis predicts abrupt and discontinuous transitions from configurations associated with low export ratios to configurations associated with high export ratios as the rate of primary production increases. Comparison between field data and model predictions shows very good agreement at low and high production rates, but the field data do not support a step-function transition from low to high export ratios at intermediate rates of production. Instead, the field data are consistent with the assumption that food webs effect the transition between high and low ef ratio modes by reconfiguring themselves in a more-or-less continuous manner. The configurations associated with these transitions are at least locally more resilient than any similar food web structure.

  7. Regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics inferred from speleothems: Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.; Marwan, Norbert; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Rehfeld, Kira; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system has been recognized as an important potential tipping element in Earth's climate. A global warming-driven change in monsoonal circulation, potentially towards a drier and more irregular regime, would profoundly affect up to 60% of the global human population. Hence, to improve our understanding of this major climate system, it is mandatory to investigate evidence for nonlinear transitions in past monsoonal dynamics and the underlying mechanisms that are contained in the available palaeoclimatic record. For this purpose, speleothems are among the best available high-resolution archives of Asian palaeomonsoonal variability during the Holocene and well beyond. In this work, we apply recurrence networks, a recently developed technique for nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate data (Donges et al., PNAS 108, 20422-20427, 2011), for detecting episodes with pronounced changes in Asian monsoon dynamics during the last 10 ka in oxygen isotope records from spatially distributed cave deposits covering the different branches of the Asian monsoon system. Our methodology includes multiple archives, explicit consideration of dating uncertainties with the COPRA approach and rigorous significance testing to ensure the robust detection of continental-scale changes in monsoonal dynamics. We identify several periods characterised by nonlinear changes in Asian monsoon dynamics (e.g., ~0.5, 2.2-2.8, 3.6-4.1, 5.4-5.7, and 8.0-8.5 ka before present [BP]), the timing of which suggests a connection to extra-tropical Bond events and rapid climate change (RCC) episodes during the Holocene. Interestingly, we furthermore detect an epoch of significantly increased regularity of monsoonal variations around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that is consistent with the typical 1.0-1.5 ka periodicity of Bond events but has been rarely reported in the literature so far. Furthermore, we find that the detected epochs of nonlinear regime shifts in Asian monsoon dynamics partly

  8. Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2015-04-01

    It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

  9. Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey.

    PubMed

    Bahlai, Christine A; van der Werf, Wopke; vander Werf, Wopke; O'Neal, Matthew; Hemerik, Lia; Landis, Douglas A

    2015-10-01

    The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. We investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive species in the midwestern United States, the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis and the soybean aphid Aphis glycines. We show by model selection that after its 1993 invasion into the American Midwest, the year-to-year population dynamics of H. axyridis were initially governed by a logistic rule supporting gradual rise to a stable carrying capacity. After invasion of the soybean aphid in 2000, food resources at the landscape level became abundant, supporting a higher year-to-year growth rate and a higher but unstable carrying capacity, with two-year cycles in both aphid and lady beetle abundance as a consequence. During 2005-2007, farmers in the Midwest progressively increased their use of insecticides for managing A. glycines, combining prophylactic seed treatment with curative spraying based on thresholds. This human intervention dramatically reduced the soybean aphid as a major food resource for H. axyridis at landscape level and corresponded to a reverse shift towards the original logistic rule for year-to-year dynamics. Thus, we document a short episode of major predator-prey fluctuations in an important agricultural system resulting from two biological invasions that were apparently damped by widespread insecticide use. Recent advances in development of plant resistance to A. glycines in soybeans may mitigate the need for pesticidal control and achieve the same stabilization of pest and predator populations at lower cost and environmental burden. PMID:26591447

  10. The late 1980s regime shift in the ecosystem of Tsushima warm current in the Japan/East Sea: Evidence from historical data and possible mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yongjun; Kidokoro, Hideaki; Watanabe, Tatsuro; Iguchi, Naoki

    2008-05-01

    A climatic regime shift, an abrupt change from cooling to warming in the Japan/East Sea (JES), particularly in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region, occurred in the late 1980s. The ecosystem of the JES responded strongly to the changing thermal regime. Many, but not all biological components of the ecosystem, spanning from plankton to predatory fishes, and including both warm-water pelagic and cold-water demersal species responded to this late 1980s climatic regime shift in the JES. Diatom abundance (cell number) in spring from a monitoring line located in the central part of JES showed decadal variations with a step change from positive to negative anomalies in 1991. Zooplankton biomass in spring and autumn was high in the 1970s, declined during the 1980s, and returned to higher, but quite variable levels during the 1990s. Japanese sardine catch increased after 1974 to its peak level in 1989 and then declined dramatically to 1974 levels by 1997 with step changes in 1979 and 1994. Conversely, catches of other small pelagic species such as Japanese anchovy and common squid, and several higher-trophic fishes, such as yellowtail and tunas increased markedly in the 1990s compared to the early-mid 1980s. Step changes were detected in these pelagic species during 1989-1992. Catch of demersal species (crab, pink shrimp, Pacific cod and walleye pollock) were high during most of the 1970-1980s, but declined at various times in the late 1980s to generally low catches in the 1990s. Detailed analysis of the demersal fish assemblage composition, abundance and distribution indicated a shift in the late 1980s with several years lag in the time of change. Cold-water species (e.g., walleye pollock, Pacific cod) decreased in abundance and the regions in which their abundances remained high became greatly reduced in extent. Conversely, warm-water species (e.g., pointhead flounder, shotted halibut) increased in abundance and/or extended their spatial range (as indicated by trawl

  11. An integrated analysis of the marine social-ecological system of the Strait of Georgia, Canada, over the past four decades, and development of a regime shift index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, R. Ian; Masson, Diane

    2013-08-01

    A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact conceptual model of the Strait of Georgia, Canada, was developed as a framework to characterise the low frequency temporal (regime-like) patterns of variability in this system since 1970, and to identify suitable indicators of these changes. Thirty-seven time series, including both bio-physical (“natural”) and human variables, were assembled with sufficiently few missing years to permit multivariate statistical analyses. Principal component analyses identified regime-like shifts that correspond to those generally accepted for the NE Pacific (late 1970s; mid-1990s), plus an additional shift in the mid-1980s. Redundancy analyses identified significant relationships in which the natural and human explanatory driver/pressure variables accounted for 72% of the variability of the state/impact response variables. Partitioning this variance among the natural and human drivers/pressures attributed 4% to the natural drivers/pressures alone and 16% to the human drivers/pressures alone, but 53% to the interactions between natural and human drivers and pressures. Both sets of driver and pressure variables (natural and human) are therefore necessary to account for the patterns of variability of the state and impact variables in the Strait of Georgia. Redundancy analysis was also used to identify a reduced set of driver/pressure variables which accounted for a large proportion of the variability in the state and impact response variables: sea surface temperature, wind speed, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index, human population surrounding the Strait of Georgia, recreational fishing effort, and the number of hatchery releases of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into the Strait. A structural change analysis was used to identify significant changes in these six explanatory variables, and to identify regime shift years (including their 95% confidence intervals). A regime shift index for the Strait of Georgia was then constructed using

  12. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Nutrient Limitation, Plant Biomass and Productivity, and Stream Metabolism Vary in Response to Short- and Long-Term Hydrological Regime Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, N. B.; Sabo, J. L.; Dong, X.; Ruhí, A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and hydrology are strong drivers of ecosystem structure and function in arid landscapes. Arid regions are characterized by high interannual variation in precipitation, and these climate patterns drive the overall hydrologic disturbance regime (in terms of flooding and drying), which influences geomorphic structure, biotic distributions, and nutrient status of desert stream ecosystems. We analyzed the long-term pattern of discharge in a desert stream in Arizona to identify hydrologic regime shifts, i.e., abrupt transitions between sequences of floods and droughts at periods of months to decades. We used wavelet analysis to identify time intervals over a 50-year time series that were negatively correlated with one another, reflecting a shift from wet to dry phases. We also looked with finer resolution at the most recent 10-year period, when wetlands have come to dominate the ecosystem owing to a management change, and at individual flood and drought events within years. In space, there is high site fidelity of wetland plant cover, corresponding to reliable water sources. Comparing five-year patterns of plant distribution and stream metabolism between wet and dry years suggested the primacy of geomorphic controls in drought periods. Nutrient limitation of algal production varied from moderate to very strong N limitation, with only one year when there was a (weak) suggestion of secondary P limitation. Over the longer period of record, we identified times characterized by hydrological regime shifts and asked whether ecosystem variables would have changed over that time period. We hypothesized, in particular, that the changes in nutrient status of the stream ecosystem would result from these regime shifts. We used our most complete long-term dataset on stream nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and N:P ratios as a proxy for nutrient limitation. However, N:P varied primarily at fine scales in response to individual flood events.

  13. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  14. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-01-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds (“WAP 12”, “WAP 20”, and “WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of 210Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring. PMID:25750718

  15. Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia.

    PubMed

    Laird, Kathleen R; Cumming, Brian F; Wunsam, Sybille; Rusak, James A; Oglesby, Robert J; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Leavitt, Peter R

    2003-03-01

    Six high-resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the northern prairies of North America, show that shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. The predominant broad-scale pattern seen at all sites is a major shift in moisture regimes from wet to dry, or vice versa (depending on location), that occurred after a period of relative stability. These large-scale shifts at the different sites exhibit spatial coherence at regional scales. The three Canadian sites record this abrupt shift between anno Domini 500 and 800, and subsequently conditions become increasingly variable. All three U.S. sites underwent a pronounced change, but the timing of this change is between anno Domini 1000 and 1300, thus later than in all of the Canadian sites. The mechanisms behind these patterns are poorly understood, but they are likely related to changes in the shape and location of the jet stream and associated storm tracks. If the patterns seen at these sites are representative of the region, this observed pattern can have huge implications for future water availability in this region. PMID:12606725

  16. The altered ecology of Lake Christina: a record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake.

    PubMed

    Theissen, Kevin M; Hobbs, William O; Hobbs, Joy M Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D; Domine, Leah M; Cotner, James B; Sugita, Shinya

    2012-09-01

    We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3-4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ(13)C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ(15)N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ(13)C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. PMID:22819884

  17. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    SciTech Connect

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.

    2014-08-15

    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm{sup −3} isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  18. A Recent Shift in the Carbon Balance of High-latitude Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Changes in Climate and Disturbance Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, D. J.; McGuire, A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Gurney, K. R.; Burnside, T. J.; Melillo, J. M.

    2008-12-01

    Analyses of the global carbon budget suggest that terrestrial ecosystems have been responsible for slowing the rate of anthropogenic CO2 build-up in the atmosphere through carbon uptake and storage, with northern extratropical regions responsible for most of this land-based CO2 sink. However, recent changes in atmospheric chemistry, climate trends, disturbance regimes, land use and management systems in northern high latitude regions have the potential to alter the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics across the pan-arctic (north of 45°N latitude) using a process-based biogeochemistry model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 8.5 Tg C per year between 1997 and 2006. The positive carbon balance (sink) estimated for tundra regions is consistent with observations suggesting a "greening" of, or an increase in productivity in, these ecosystems. However, the simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute the overall shift in regional carbon balance primarily to a large loss of carbon as a result of "browning" in boreal forest ecosystems. Model results suggest that primary productivity of the boreal forest declined over this recent time period in response to a decreasing trend in water balance. However, the substantial release of CO2 as a direct result of the large area of boreal forest burned during the past decade was the largest signal in the overall negative carbon balance for the pan-arctic region. Our results, along with those of other recent studies, emphasize the importance of changes in the disturbance regime (e.g., fire events and insect outbreaks) in the weakening and possible disappearance of the terrestrial carbon sink in high latitude

  19. Catastrophic regime shifts in coral communities exposed to physical disturbances: simulation results from object-oriented 3-dimensional coral reef model.

    PubMed

    Tam, Tze-wai; Ang, Put O

    2009-07-21

    A 3-dimensional individual-based model, the ReefModel, was developed to simulate the dynamical structure of coral reef community using object-oriented techniques. Interactions among functional groups of reef organisms were simulated in the model. The behaviours of these organisms were described with simple mechanistic rules that were derived from their general behaviours (e.g. growing habits, competitive mechanisms, response to physical disturbance) observed in natural coral reef communities. The model was implemented to explore the effects of physical disturbance on the dynamical structure of a 3-coral community that was characterized with three functional coral groups: tabular coral, foliaceous coral and massive coral. Simulation results suggest that (i) the integration of physical disturbance and differential responses (disturbance sensitivity and growing habit) of corals plays an important role in structuring coral communities; (ii) diversity of coral communities can be maximal under intermediate level of acute physical disturbance; (iii) multimodality exists in the final states and dynamic regimes of individual coral group as well as coral community structure, which results from the influence of small random spatial events occurring during the interactions among the corals in the community, under acute and repeated physical disturbances. These results suggest that alternative stable states and catastrophic regime shifts may exist in a coral community under unstable physical environment. PMID:19306887

  20. Hydrologic modelling for climate change impacts analysis of shifts in future hydrologic regimes: implications for stream temperature and salmon habitat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Werner, A. T.; Schnorbus, M.; Salathé, E. P.; Nelitz, M.

    2009-05-01

    sites. Higher peak flows, a shift in the spring melt (earlier) and increased winter runoff are characteristics observed at many of the streamflow sites analysed. These results suggest that while an increase in winter rain events will cause higher peak flows, winter warming generally leads to lower snowpacks and soil moisture stores, leading to a decline in summer water availability in this region. Lessons learned from the applications of modelling data and results across different model frameworks and for different scales will be discussed.

  1. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  2. Impending rupture in an aortic arch aneurysm by Candida infection.

    PubMed

    Minami, H; Wakita, N; Kawanishi, Y; Kitano, I; Sakata, M

    2001-03-01

    A 68-year-old man was hospitalized with the complaints of left back pain and fever. He had a history of using steroids to treat uveitis for about thirty years. Computed tomography on the chest demonstrated an impending rupture in an aortic arch aneurysm, which was consequently surgically excised. Candida albicans was identified in the wall of the aneurysm, so fluconazole and itraconazole were administered. The patient was discharged at 120 days after surgery without recrudescence of the candida. To our knowledge, this is the fifteenth case of a successfully treated aneurysm caused by candida infection. PMID:11305059

  3. Regime shifts in the Arctic North Atlantic during the Neoglacial revealed by seabirds and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, William J.; Hormes, Anne; Bakke, Jostein; Nicolaisen, Line

    2016-04-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. We report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver isotopically enriched nitrogen to nesting areas. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, using δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals with more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

  4. Shifts in the hydrodynamic regime determine patterns of regional changes of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle in future climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilyina, T.; Heinze, M.; Li, H.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Six, K. D.

    2015-12-01

    In future projections the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle is a hotspot for changes driven by rising CO2 emissions. Concomitantly, the Arctic Ocean hydrodynamic regime undergoes substantial shifts so the net effect on the carbon cycle is not intuitively clear. In the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5 extended until 2300 in projections of the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model, the averaged Arctic Ocean surface temperature rises by 4°C in 2100 and by 10°C in 2300, respectively. The Arctic becomes free of summer sea ice in the second half of the 21st century, whereas winter sea ice disappears at the beginning of the 23rd century. Owing to increased sea ice melting and runoff, fresh water content increases gradually until the end of the 22nd century and then drops abruptly as a result of an intensification of the saline Atlantic water inflow. Accumulation of Atlantic water collapses the halocline in the central basin of the Arctic Ocean by the first half of the 23rd century. Ongoing warming enhances thermal stratification and the mixed layer shoales. In contrast, halocline erosion and the cooling of the ice free water act in concert to favor formation of convection cells in the central basin. Freshening in the Canada basin and transport of salty water into the Eurasian basin generate a dipole structure in the anomalies of surface salinity. Driven by the rising CO2, the averaged dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is growing. Changes in the averaged total alkalinity (TA) go along with the fresh water content evolution and decreasing carbonate ion concentration so that TA drops below preindustrial values. Yet, along with salinity, the Eurasian basin receives waters with higher DIC and TA from the Atlantic. As a result, the distributions of TA and DIC anomalies resemble the dipole pattern projected for salinity. We show that while future changes in the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle proceed at rates determined by atmospheric CO2 levels, the regional patterns are driven by shifts in the

  5. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    PubMed

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  6. Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenkoff, Claude; Castonguay, Martin; Chabot, Denis; Hammill, Mike O.; Bourdages, Hugo; Morissette, Lyne

    2007-07-01

    Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.

  7. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Licandro, Priscilla; Coombs, Steve; Garcia, Alberto; Giráldez, Ana; Santamaría, Maria Teresa Garcia; Slotte, Aril; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.

    2014-03-01

    Dynamics of abundance and migrations of populations of small pelagic clupeoid fish such as anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sardine (Sardina pilchardus), sardinella (Sardinella aurita), sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the eastern North and Central Atlantic between Senegal and Norway vary in synchrony with the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is shown by compiling retrospective data on fish catches and anecdotal observations, which in some cases date back to the mid-19th century. The AMO is defined as the de-trended mean of North Atlantic (0-60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it is not primarily the temperature which drives the dynamics of the small pelagic fish populations. Instead, the AMO seems to be a proxy for complex processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. This is manifested in large-scale changes in strength and direction of the current system that move water masses around the North Atlantic and likely involves the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) and the subpolar gyre (SPG). The contractions and expansions of the SPG apparently play a key role. This was particularly obvious in the mid-1990s, when the SPG abruptly contracted with the result that warm subtropical water masses moved to the north and east. Small pelagic fish populations in the eastern North and Central Atlantic, including those in the Mediterranean responded quickly by changing abundances and migrating northwards. It seems that the complex ocean-atmosphere changes in the mid-1990s, which are described in the text in detail, caused a regime shift in the ecosystems of the eastern North and Central Atlantic and the small pelagic clupeoid fish populations are the sentinels of this shift.

  8. Reprint of “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alheit, Jürgen; Licandro, Priscilla; Coombs, Steve; Garcia, Alberto; Giráldez, Ana; Santamaría, Maria Teresa Garcia; Slotte, Aril; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamics of abundance and migrations of populations of small pelagic clupeoid fish such as anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sardine (Sardina pilchardus), sardinella (Sardinella aurita), sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the eastern North and Central Atlantic between Senegal and Norway vary in synchrony with the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is shown by compiling retrospective data on fish catches and anecdotal observations, which in some cases date back to the mid-19th century. The AMO is defined as the de-trended mean of North Atlantic (0-60°N) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it is not primarily the temperature which drives the dynamics of the small pelagic fish populations. Instead, the AMO seems to be a proxy for complex processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. This is manifested in large-scale changes in strength and direction of the current system that move water masses around the North Atlantic and likely involves the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) and the subpolar gyre (SPG). The contractions and expansions of the SPG apparently play a key role. This was particularly obvious in the mid-1990s, when the SPG abruptly contracted with the result that warm subtropical water masses moved to the north and east. Small pelagic fish populations in the eastern North and Central Atlantic, including those in the Mediterranean responded quickly by changing abundances and migrating northwards. It seems that the complex ocean-atmosphere changes in the mid-1990s, which are described in the text in detail, caused a regime shift in the ecosystems of the eastern North and Central Atlantic and the small pelagic clupeoid fish populations are the sentinels of this shift.

  9. Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2007-07-01

    We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

  10. Percutaneous Stabilization of Impending Pathological Fracture of the Proximal Femur

    SciTech Connect

    Deschamps, Frederic Farouil, Geoffroy Hakime, Antoine Teriitehau, Christophe Barah, Ali Baere, Thierry de

    2012-12-15

    Objective: Percutaneous osteosynthesis plus cementoplasty (POPC) is a minimally invasive technique that has never been reported before and that we have prospectively evaluated for patients with impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur. Methods: We performed POPC in 12 patients (3 males, 9 females) with metastasis of the proximal femur with a high risk of fracture (Mirels' score {>=}8) between February 2010 and July 2011. Patients were not candidates for standard surgical stabilization. We analyzed the feasibility, duration, and complication of the procedure, the risk of fracture, the decrease in pain (Visual Analog Scale, VAS), and length of stay in hospital. Data were prospectively collected in all patients. Results: The mean Mirels' score was 9.8 {+-} 1.2 (range, 8-11). The technical success was 100%. POPC was performed under general anesthesia (n = 6) or conscious sedation (n = 6). The mean duration was 110 {+-} 43 (range, 60-180) minutes. All patients stood up and walked the second day after the procedure. The average length of stay in the hospital was 4 {+-} 1.6 (range, 2-7) days. We experienced two hematomas in two patients and no thromboembolic complication. For symptomatic patients (n = 8), VAS decreased from 6.5/10 (range, 2-9) before treatment to 1/10 (range, 0-3) 1 month after. No fracture occurred after a median follow-up of 145 (range, 12-608) days. Conclusions: POPC for impending pathological fracture of the proximal femur seems to be a promising alternative for cancer patients who are not candidates for surgical stabilization. Further studies are required to confirm this preliminary experience.

  11. Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

    2014-12-01

    The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total

  12. Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

    2016-04-01

    Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

  13. Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, E.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, P.

    2005-01-01

    Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1. smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd

  14. Going Lean: Impending Money Woes Force Tough Choices, Forecast Fundamental Shift in Community College Funding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joch, Alan

    2011-01-01

    The numbers were already bad, and they keep getting worse, for the Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD). Given the weak economy, administrators planned for a 5 percent reduction in state funding in the 2010-11 academic year. The actual reduction ballooned to more than 7.5 percent, an additional $13 million that DCCCD would be forced to…

  15. Vegetation maps at the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act (1934): A baseline to evaluate rangeland change after a regime shift

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Data from New Mexico range survey maps created shortly after the passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934 have been preserved and are being used to document changes in vegetation. The range survey data were collected at the time of a critical shift in rangeland policy and practice in federal lands...

  16. Synchronous climate-driven regime shifts at the onset of the Holocene inferred from diatom records in lakes of the Greater Yellowstone region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Y.; Stone, J.; Fritz, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Diatom records covering the late-glacial and early Holocene periods were recovered from three lakes in different areas of Yellowstone National Park to investigate the impacts of large-scale climatic change on aquatic ecosystem evolution following deglaciation. All lakes show synchronous diatom community shifts from the dominance of tychoplanktic Fragilaria species to benthic species in the interval of 11,300-11500 cal yr BP, indicating a regional decrease in effective moisture. The synchroneity of changes in diatom community structure suggests the influence of overlying large-scale climatic change on lacustrine ecosystems. A major shift in the same interval also is evident in other proxy records, such as pollen and charcoal, throughout the Yellowstone region at the late-glacial/early-Holocene transition. This suggests that the summer insolation maximum induced a widespread and rapid reorganization of ecosystem structure and function.

  17. A regime shift in the subpolar gyre strength due to a sudden transition in the North Atlantic climate during the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann

    2015-04-01

    Recent paleoceanographic reconstructions of the subpolar North Atlantic variability during the last millennium describe oceanic conditions associated with a weaker subpolar gyre during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1700) after a relatively strong phase during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~950-1250). However, mechanism(s) behind such a relatively rapid shift remains unclear. Here, we investigate the dynamics of the subpolar gyre and its role on driving the exchanges of heat and freshwater between the northern North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean over the last millennium in an ensemble of three transient and an unperturbed-climate simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute-Earth system model for paleo-applications. In particular, we focus on the dynamics underlying a decadal-scale transition in the subpolar gyre from an initial strong to a later weak state, which is found in one of the last-millennium transient simulations and shows characteristic features similar to the reconstructed event. Our results indicate that the simulated shift is triggered by a rapid increase in the sea-ice transport from the Arctic toward the subpolar North Atlantic, which causes a broad freshening of the Labrador Sea surface and, thereby, a shut-down in deep oceanic mixing. As a result, the subpolar gyre weakens. This in turn activates a series of long-lasting feedbacks relating oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea-ice extent, and oceanic deep convection in the Labrador Sea that keep the North Atlantic in an anomalous state for about 250 years. A reorganization of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean-atmosphere coupled system, sustained by internal feedbacks acting on multicentennial time scales, can therefore result in a new subpolar gyre state. The simulated shift coincides in time with a two-decade-long cluster of relatively small volcanic eruptions which leads to prominent thickening of the Arctic ice cap previous to the shift. Sensitivity experiments will be performed to further

  18. Early warning signs of impending hypoglycaemia masked by post-extraction labial paraesthesia.

    PubMed

    Jowett, N I; Cabot, L B

    1998-07-25

    Temporary lingual and labial paraesthesia are not uncommon following the removal of mandibular third molar teeth. In patients with insulin-treated diabetes circum-oral paraesthesia is a common and important sign of impending hypoglycaemia. This report highlights the case of a 17-year-old girl with Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes who, following the extraction of her four wisdom teeth, experienced minor circum-oral sensory disturbances. These effectively masked her early warning signs of impending hypoglycaemia which had hitherto allowed her to have very good glycaemic control. Trembling, sweating and loss of concentration became the new presenting symptom complex, which she found both disabling and worrying. Fortunately, within six months the paraesthesia had subsided and the patient was once again able to appreciate her usual warning symptom of impending hypoglycaemia. PMID:9718802

  19. Nutrient regime shift in the western North Atlantic indicated by compound-specific δ15N of deep-sea gorgonian corals.

    PubMed

    Sherwood, Owen A; Lehmann, Moritz F; Schubert, Carsten J; Scott, David B; McCarthy, Matthew D

    2011-01-18

    Despite the importance of the nitrogen (N) cycle on marine productivity, little is known about variability in N sources and cycling in the ocean in relation to natural and anthropogenic climate change. Beyond the last few decades of scientific observation, knowledge depends largely on proxy records derived from nitrogen stable isotopes (δ(15)N) preserved in sediments and other bioarchives. Traditional bulk δ(15)N measurements, however, represent the combined influence of N source and subsequent trophic transfers, often confounding environmental interpretation. Recently, compound-specific analysis of individual amino acids (δ(15)N-AA) has been shown as a means to deconvolve trophic level versus N source effects on the δ(15)N variability of bulk organic matter. Here, we demonstrate the first use of δ(15)N-AA in a paleoceanographic study, through analysis of annually secreted growth rings preserved in the organic endoskeletons of deep-sea gorgonian corals. In the Northwest Atlantic off Nova Scotia, coral δ(15)N is correlated with increasing presence of subtropical versus subpolar slope waters over the twentieth century. By using the new δ(15)N-AA approach to control for variable trophic processing, we are able to interpret coral bulk δ(15)N values as a proxy for nitrate source and, hence, slope water source partitioning. We conclude that the persistence of the warm, nutrient-rich regime since the early 1970s is largely unique in the context of the last approximately 1,800 yr. This evidence suggests that nutrient variability in this region is coordinated with recent changes in global climate and underscores the broad potential of δ(15)N-AA for paleoceanographic studies of the marine N cycle. PMID:21199952

  20. Vegetation and climate change, fire-regime shifts and volcanic disturbance in Chiloé Continental (43°S) during the last 10,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henríquez, W. I.; Moreno, P. I.; Alloway, B. V.; Villarosa, G.

    2015-09-01

    Disentangling the roles of paleofires and explosive volcanism from climatic drivers of past vegetation change is a subject insufficiently addressed in the paleoecological literature. The coastal region of the Chiloé Continental sector of northwestern Patagonia is ideal in this regard considering its proximity to active eruptive centers and the possibility of establishing comparisons with more distal, upwind sites where volcanic influence is minimal. Here we present a fine-resolution pollen and macroscopic charcoal record from Lago Teo with the aim of documenting the local vegetation and climate history, and assessing the role of disturbance regimes as drivers of vegetation change during the last ˜10,000 years. The Lago Teo record shows a conspicuous warm/dry interval between ˜7500 and 10,000 cal yrs BP followed by a cooling trend and increase in precipitation that has persisted until the present, in agreement with previous studies in the region and interpretations of past southern westerly wind activity at multi-millennial scales. The presence of 26 tephras throughout the record allows examination of the relationship between explosive volcanism and vegetation change under contrasting climatic states of the Holocene. We found consistent statistically significant increases in Tepualia stipularis after tephra deposition over the last 10,000 years, in Eucryphia/Caldcluvia between 7500 and 10,000 cal yrs BP and in Hydrangea over the last 7500 years. Our results indicate a primary role of climate change as driver of long-term vegetation change and as a modulator of vegetation responses to volcanic disturbance at multidecadal and centennial timescales.

  1. Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator.

    PubMed

    Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Dyck, Markus G; Ferguson, Steven H; Higdon, Jeff W

    2016-08-01

    Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010-2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large-bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice-free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on-ice feeding opportunities for polar bears. PMID:27547372

  2. A Study of Community College Leadership Practices in Response to the Impending Leadership Crisis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Jane

    2012-01-01

    The literature attests to a leadership crisis that is predicted to impact leadership pipelines in just about every industry imaginable, including community colleges. This impending crisis is thought to be a result of baby boomer retirements plus the lack of next generation workers equipped with the skills to replace them. Community colleges are…

  3. How a Faculty Made Sense of the Impending Succession of Its Principal. Revised.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fauske, Janice R.; Ogawa, Rodney T.

    This study sought to describe how an elementary school faculty made sense of the impending succession of its principal, and to extend Gephart's effort to develop a grounded theory of leader succession by examining an unforced succession in an organization whose members exerted little if any influence on the selection process. On the basis of…

  4. The Impending Leadership Crisis in Historically Black College and University (HBCU) Libraries: A Mixed Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Youmans, Tasha Lucas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to disclose the claims of an impending shortage of librarians in academic libraries as it relates to Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). The target population of this study was HBCU libraries that had a full-time equivalent enrollment of 3,000 students or more and that were accredited by the Southern…

  5. Impending challenges in the hematopoietic stem cell transplantation physician workforce.

    PubMed

    Gajewski, James L; LeMaistre, C Frederick; Silver, Samuel M; Lill, Michael C; Selby, George B; Horowitz, Mary M; Rizzo, J Douglas; Heslop, Helen E; Anasetti, Claudio; Maziarz, Richard T

    2009-12-01

    With increasing use of high dose chemotherapy with autologous and allogeneic transplants the need for the transplant physician workforce requires reassessment. The types of transplants and patients are also shifting toward transplants being done in patients with more comorbidities and more commonly these types of patients require more work effort per patient from the transplant physician. Additionally, HSCT survivors often require ongoing care at the transplant center due to the inability of the primary care workforce or the hematology/oncology workforce to absorb caring for post complex post transplant patients. The adult transplant workforce has had very few physicians join under age 40. Nearly 50% of adult transplant physicians are over age 50 whereas only 28% of pediatric transplant physicians are over age 50. By 2020, it is projected that we will need 1,264 new adult transplant physicians and 94 pediatric transplant physicians. Training time for a physician is approximately 15 years. The capping of both medical school slots and residency slots since the early '80s is now having a very big impact on supply, but other factors are also affecting supplies such as generational differences, lifestyle expectations, and the change of the medical workforce from being mostly men. Workforce shortages are being reported for many specialities. Workforce problems are also present for nurses, pharmacists and medical technologists. So increasing use of general internists and mid-level providers may not exist as a solution. Transplant physicians must be actively engaged in the medical education process to show young medical students and residents who are not committed to another sub specialty career the excitement and challenges of a career in bone marrow transplantation, so that our field will have providers for the future. PMID:19781658

  6. Short-impending Anomaly of GPS Observation and its Implications in Yunnan Earthquake Predication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, M.; Shao, D.; Zhang, S.; Wu, T.; Wang, F.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, L.; Qian, X.

    2015-12-01

    This study proposals a new method, short-impending anomaly of GPS (SIA-GPS), to predict the coming earthquake. Based on long-term GNSS observations, we observed the abnormal deformations occurred around the active faults in Yunnan area before the earthquakes of magnitude MW³5.0. We constructed the regional strain fields with networks filtering, and extracted the abnormal deformations of each grid before each strong coming earthquake. Such special deformations of the GNSS observation are able to serve for short-impending earthquake prediction. The SIA-GPS method includes three steps. Firstly, Yunnan region is divided into multiple grids using interpolation calculation and the uniform displacement field is created. The area velocity field is obtained based on the continuous GNSS observations using GAMIT/GLOBK software. Next, the earthquake response capacity of each grid is evaluated in time-series analysis focusing on strains, and the short-term anomalies are easily extracted. Lastly, all the abnormal signals are carefully diagnosed in the considerations of tectonic movements. As examples, we predicated 19 earthquakes using the (SIA-GPS) method. 14 earthquakes of them are successful within the tolerable special and time misfits, and 5 of them do not occurred. The code of predication for short-impending earthquake requires that all the coming earthquakes of Mw³5 must be predicated, the maximum time error for coming event is three months, and the corresponding spatial misfit allows 5 grids. Following this role, 14 earthquakes of Mw³5 are predicted using SIA-GPS indicators with success rate 73.6%. For such experiences, SIA-GPS method has been utilized as a benefit tool to predicate the potential coming earthquakes in Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province. Keywords:Short-impending anomaly of GPS, SIA-GPS, time series of analysis, GNSS observation, earthquake prediction, surface deformation, strain, Yunnan area.

  7. Coping strategies in the presence of one's own impending death from cancer.

    PubMed

    Sand, Lisa; Olsson, Mariann; Strang, Peter

    2009-01-01

    An incurable cancer is a threat to life itself. This study focused on how native-born Swedes, who define themselves as nonreligious, actually reflect and act when they try to create helpful strategies in the presence of their own impending deaths and how the strategies serve their purposes. Twenty patients were interviewed in depth. The patients were enrolled in an advanced hospital-based home care team. The interviews were taped, transcribed and analyzed with a qualitative, hermeneutic interpretative method. The informants' efforts to develop useful strategies to restrain death could be symbolized as a cognitive and emotional pendulum, swinging between the extremes of life and death. During the swings of the pendulum, the informants used every means available: their own resources, other people, animals, nature, a transcendent power, hope, imagination and magical thinking. They strove to find factors that fitted their conceptual system and supported their inner balance and structure, all to keep death at a discreet distance and preserve their links to life. These links were togetherness, involvement, hope and continuance, and they served as a shield against hurtful feelings connected to their impending death. The new knowledge about how strategies in the presence of one's own impending death can develop and be used is perhaps the most novel and clinically relevant contribution of this study. PMID:18676119

  8. Impending Crisis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herman, Roger E.; Olivo, Thomas G.; Gioia, Joyce L.

    Filled with evidence and advice for corporate leaders in for-profit, not-for-profit, governmental, and education organizations, this book addresses how to evaluate one's organization's vulnerability and take action. An introduction is followed by a section on the new roles of the chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial…

  9. Regime shifts in the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years: A record of seabird population size and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, W. J.; Hormes, A.; Bakke, J.; Nicolaisen, L.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. Here, we report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver this isotopically enriched nitrogen to their nesting area. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the bulk nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, by measuring δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals having more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the

  10. Asynchronous responses of fish assemblages to climate-driven ocean regime shifts between the upper and deep layer in the Ulleung basin of the East Sea from 1986 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Sukgeun

    2014-03-01

    Past studies suggested that a basin-wide regime shift occurred in 1988-1989, impacting marine ecosystem and fish assemblages in the western North Pacific. However, the detailed mechanisms involved in this phenomenon are still yet unclear. In the Ulleung basin of the East Sea, filefish, anchovy and sardine dominated the commercial fish catches in 1986-1992, but thereafter common squid comprised > 60% of the total catch in 1993-2010. To illuminate the mechanisms causing this dramatic shift in dominant fisheries species, I related changes in depth-specific oceanographic conditions from 0 to 500 m to inter-annual changes in the fish assemblage structure from 1986 to 2010. In the upper layer of 50-100 m depths, water temperature suddenly increased in 1987-1989, and consequently warm-water epi-pelagic species (anchovy, chub mackerel, and common squid) became dominant, while sardine, relatively cold-water epi-pelagic species, nearly disappeared. An annual index of the volume transport by the Korea Strait Bottom Cold Water, originating from the deep water of the Ulleung Basin, displayed a sudden intensification in 1992-1993, accompanied by decreased water temperature and increased water density in the deep water and replacement of dominant bentho-pelagic species from filefish, warm-water species, to herring and cod, cold-water species. The results suggest that climate-driven oceanic changes and the subsequent ecological impacts can occur asynchronously, often with time lags of several years, between the upper and the deep layer, and between epi-pelagic and deepwater fish assemblages.

  11. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  12. Frosted branch angiitis in one eye and impending CRVO in the other: a diagnostic dilemma.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Abiraj; Yangzes, Sonam; Singh, Ramandeep

    2015-01-01

    We present a unique case of frosted branch angiitis in one eye and impending central retinal vein occlusion in other eye of a pregnant woman, which could be an initial manifestation of Behçet's disease. A 28-year-old, 33 weeks pregnant woman presented with sudden diminution of vision in her right eye. Her best-corrected visual acuity was light perception in the right eye and 20/20 in her left eye. The fundus examination revealed frosted branch angiitis in the right eye and impending central retinal vein occlusion in the left eye. After a thorough initial examination, she was administered intravenous methyl prednisolone 1 g once a day for 3 days followed by oral steroids. All extensive work up to find the cause of frosted branch angiitis was negative except for positive human leukocyte antigen B51. Systemic work up was normal. On last follow-up at 6 months, the patient had visual acuity of 20/60 in the right eye and 20/20 in the left eye. Her systemic work up was normal up to follow-up. She still remains a diagnostic dilemma, with Behçet's disease as the closest diagnosis. PMID:26055592

  13. Impending rupture of a blunt trauma-induced left ventricular aneurysm: report of a case.

    PubMed

    Asai, Yasufumi; Kurimoto, Yoshihiko

    2007-01-01

    Most left ventricular true aneurysms that occur secondary to blunt trauma gradually become symptomatic as they enlarge, which validates conservative management as a reasonable initial course of action. We report a case of impending rupture of a left ventricular true aneurysm that showed rapid expansion within a few weeks. A 17-year-old youth was involved in a head-on collision into a car while riding a motorcycle. He underwent repair of a ruptured jejunum and internal fixation of a fractured femur; 28 days after the accident, he was transferred to another hospital for rehabilitation. His chest X-ray just before the transfer was normal. He was re-admitted to our hospital 58 days after the accident complaining of anterior chest pain and dyspnea. Echocardiography showed impending rupture of a left ventricular aneurysm. We performed emergency open repair of a left ventricular true aneurysm with a very thin wall. We report this case to show that even a true aneurysm of the left ventricle should be carefully monitored from the early stage, considering the possibility of rupture. PMID:17952528

  14. Regime change?

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K. W.

    2004-01-01

    Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

  15. Death talk: gender differences in talking about one’s own impending death

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background According to common practice based on a generally agreed interpretation of Icelandic law on the rights of patients, health care professionals cannot discuss prognosis and treatment with a patient’s family without that patient’s consent. This limitation poses ethical problems, because research has shown that, in the absence of insight and communication regarding a patient’s impending death, patient’s significant others may subsequently experience long-term psychological distress. It is also reportedly important for most dying patients to know that health care personnel are comfortable with talking about death and dying. There is only very limited information concerning gender differences regarding death talk in terminal care patients. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of detailed prospective “field notes” from chaplain interviews of all patients aged 30–75 years receiving palliative care and/or with DNR (do not resuscitate) written on their charts who requested an interview with a hospital chaplain during a period of 3 years. After all study patients had died, these notes were analyzed to assess the prevalence of patient-initiated discussions regarding their own impending death and whether non-provocative evocation-type interventions had facilitated such communication. Results During the 3-year study period, 195 interviews (114 men, 81 women) were conducted. According to the field notes, 80% of women and 30% of men initiated death talk within the planned 30-minute interviews. After evoking interventions, 59% (67/114) of men and 91% (74/81) of women engaged in death talk. Even with these interventions, at the end of the first interview gender differences were still statistically significant (p = 0.001). By the end of the second interview gender difference was less, but still statistically significant (p = 0.001). Conclusions Gender differences in terminal care communication may be radically reduced by using simple evocation

  16. The management of impending myocardial infarction using coronary artery by-pass grafting and an intra-aortic balloon pump.

    PubMed

    Harris, P L; Woollard, K; Bartoli, A; Makey, A R

    1980-01-01

    Of 33 patients with impending myocardial infarction 25 were treated using a combination of coronary artery by-pass grafting and intra-aortic balloon pumping. Eight patients were treated with coronary artery by-pass grafting alone. Twenty-two of the 25 patients who were treated with the combined technique made a full recovery. Three patients sustained definite myocardial infarctions and one of these died. Five of the 8 patients treated by grafting alone suffered infarction and of these 3 died. The value of intra-aortic balloon pumping in combination with coronary artery by-pass grafting in the management of impending myocardial infarction is discussed. PMID:6968314

  17. Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meacher, J.; Chen, H. M.

    1974-01-01

    A test program was conducted with the objective of developing a method and equipment for on-line monitoring of installed ball bearings to detect deterioration or impending failure of the bearings. The program was directed at the spin-axis bearings of a control moment gyro. The bearings were tested at speeds of 6000 and 8000 rpm, thrust loads from 50 to 1000 pounds, with a wide range of lubrication conditions, with and without a simulated fatigue spall implanted in the inner race ball track. It was concluded that a bearing monitor system based on detection and analysis of modulations of a fault indicating bearing resonance frequency can provide a low threshold of sensitivity.

  18. Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: a very recent case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varotsos, Panayiotis A.; Sarlis, Nicholas V.; Skordas, Efthimios S.; Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G.; Lazaridou-Varotsos, Mary S.

    2015-06-01

    The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an M W 5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014.

  19. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    PubMed

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged. PMID:24481888

  20. Case Report: Frontalis sign for early bedside consideration of impending uncal herniation

    PubMed Central

    Munakomi, Sunil; Mohan Kumar, Bijoy

    2016-01-01

    It is prudent to have early diagnosis and timely management of uncal herniation for better management of neurosurgical patients. There are several clinical and radiological armamentariums that aid in early recognition of the condition. Through this case report, we try to highlight a simple bedside clinical sign that can be a valuable adjunct in early recognition of the impending uncal herniation especially in scenarios wherein it is difficult to assess the pupillary size and reactivity correctly. The improvement in the sign also confirms the resolution of the mass effect in the postoperative period. This is especially helpful for doctors working in the periphery or in resource restrained areas, for a timely referral of the patient to tertiary centre.

  1. Denial of impending death: a discourse analysis of the palliative care literature.

    PubMed

    Zimmermann, Camilla

    2004-10-01

    Terminally ill patients and their families are often referred to as being "in denial" of impending death. This study uses the qualitative method of discourse analysis to investigate the usage of the term "denial" in the contemporary hospice and palliative care literature. A Medline search (1970-2001) was performed combining the text words "deny" and "denial" with the subject headings "terminal care", "palliative care" and "hospice care," and restricted to English articles discussing death denial in adults. The 30 articles were analysed using a constant comparison technique and emerging themes regarding the meaning and usage of the words "deny" and "denial" identified. This paper focusses on the theme of denial as an individual psychological process. Three dominant subthemes were distinguished: denial as an unconscious "defence mechanism", denial as "healthy" and denial as temporary. The analysis focusses on the intertextuality of these themes with each other and with previous texts on the denial of death. Elements of the psychoanalytic definition of denial as an unconscious defence mechanism are retained in the literature but are interwoven with new themes on patient choice. The result is an overall discourse that is conflictual and at times self-contradictory but overall consistent with the biomedical model of illness. I suggest that the representation of death denial elaborated in these articles may be related to a larger discourse on dying in contemporary Western society, which both invites patients to participate in the planning of their death and labels those who do not comply. PMID:15279932

  2. Impact of neural noise on a sensory-motor pathway signaling impending collision

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Peter W.

    2012-01-01

    Noise is a major concern in circuits processing electrical signals, including neural circuits. There are many factors that influence how noise propagates through neural circuits, and there are few systems in which noise levels have been studied throughout a processing pathway. We recorded intracellularly from multiple stages of a sensory-motor pathway in the locust that detects approaching objects. We found that responses are more variable and that signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are lower further from the sensory periphery. SNRs remain low even with the use of stimuli for which the pathway is most selective and for which the neuron representing its final sensory level must integrate many synaptic inputs. Modeling of this neuron shows that variability in the strength of individual synaptic inputs within a large population has little effect on the variability of the spiking output. In contrast, jitter in the timing of individual inputs and spontaneous variability is important for shaping the responses to preferred stimuli. These results suggest that neural noise is inherent to the processing of visual stimuli signaling impending collision and contributes to shaping neural responses along this sensory-motor pathway. PMID:22114160

  3. Shifting tools

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, E.P.; Welch, W.R.

    1984-03-13

    An improved shifting tool connectable in a well tool string and useful to engage and position a slidable sleeve in a sliding sleeve device in a well flow conductor. The selectively profiled shifting tool keys provide better fit with and more contact area between keys and slidable sleeves. When the engaged slidable sleeve cannot be moved up and the shifting tool is not automatically disengaged, emergency disengagement means may be utilized by applying upward force to the shifting tool sufficient to shear pins and cause all keys to be cammed inwardly at both ends to completely disengage for removal of the shifting tool from the sliding sleeve device.

  4. Distal tibial interosseous osteochondroma with impending fracture of fibula – a case report and review of literature

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Osteochondromas arising from the interosseous border of the distal tibia and involving distal fibula are uncommon. We present a 16 year old young boy with an impending fracture, erosion and weakness of the distal fibula, secondary to an osteochondroma arising from the distal tibia. Early excision of this deforming distal tibial osteochondroma avoided the future risk of pathological fracture of the distal fibula, ankle deformities and syndesmotic complications. PMID:19187551

  5. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kort-Kamp, Wilton; Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Dalvit, Diego

    We show that the magneto-optical response of a graphene-on-substrate system in the presence of an external magnetic field strongly affects light beam shifts. In the quantum Hall regime, we predict quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hänchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts. The Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are given in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hänchen ones in discrete multiples of α2. Due to time-reversal symmetry breaking the IF shifts change sign when the direction of the applied magnetic field is reversed, while the other shifts remain unchanged. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field. We acknowledge the LANL LDRD program for financial support.

  6. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    SciTech Connect

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior; Sinitsyn, Nikolai; Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  7. Eluding catastrophic shifts

    PubMed Central

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A.; Levin, Simon A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences. PMID:25825772

  8. Eluding catastrophic shifts.

    PubMed

    Villa Martín, Paula; Bonachela, Juan A; Levin, Simon A; Muñoz, Miguel A

    2015-04-14

    Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences. PMID:25825772

  9. Shifting Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  10. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael B.; Hargens, Alan R.; Dulchavsky, Scott A.; Ebert, Douglas J.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Laurie, Steven S.; Garcia, Kathleen M.; Sargsyan, Ashot E.; Martin, David S.; Liu, John; Macias, Brandon R.; Arbeille, Philippe; Danielson, Richard; Chang, Douglas; Gunga, Hanns-Christian; Johnston, Smith L.; Westby, Christian M.; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert J.; Smith, Scott M.

    2016-01-01

    We hypothesize that microgravity-induced cephalad fluid shifts elevate intracranial pressure (ICP) and contribute to VIIP. We will test this hypothesis and a possible countermeasure in ISS astronauts.

  11. Effects of impending ovarian failure induced by 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide on fertility in C57BL/6 female mice.

    PubMed

    Haas, Jamie R; Christian, Patricia J; Hoyer, Patricia B

    2007-10-01

    Repeated daily dosing of mice with 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) causes a gradual onset of ovarian failure, providing a model for perimenopause. Because increasing numbers of women are delaying starting a family, infertility in aging women is of concern. This study was designed to determine the effects of impending ovarian failure on fertility in VCD-treated mice. Female C57BL/6J mice were dosed daily (17 d) with vehicle control or VCD (160 mg/kg, intraperitoneally) to deplete primordial follicles and then were divided into 2 groups. Group 1 was mated soon after dosing; group 2 was mated on day 20 after dosing, during impending ovarian failure. Fertility was evaluated on gestational day 16. In group 1, cycle length, pregnancy rate, and number of live fetuses did not differ between VCD-treated animals and controls, but VCD-treated mice required more matings to become pregnant and had more resorptions. In group 2, VCD-treated mice demonstrated proestrus and copulatory plugs, but only 1 animal became pregnant, and she had no viable fetuses. Ovaries from pregnant and nonpregnant controls contained similar numbers of follicles and corpora lutea. Ovaries from VCD-treated animals contained no follicles, and corpora lutea were seen only in pregnant animals. In VCD-treated mice mated soon after dosing, conception was more difficult and more resorbed fetuses were seen, whereas in those mated closer to impending ovarian failure, no successful pregnancies were achieved. These results demonstrate that VCD-treated mice can be used to model infertility in perimenopausal women. PMID:17974126

  12. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Laurie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Gunga, H.; Johnston, S.; Westby, C.; Ribeiro, L.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Mechanisms responsible for the ocular structural and functional changes that characterize the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (ICP) syndrome (VIIP) are unclear, but hypothesized to be secondary to the cephalad fluid shift experienced in spaceflight. This study will relate the fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight with VIIP symptoms. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, can be predicted preflight with acute hemodynamic manipulations, and also if lower body negative pressure (LBNP) can reverse the VIIP effects. METHODS: Physiologic variables will be examined pre-, in- and post-flight in 10 International Space Station crewmembers including: fluid compartmentalization (D2O and NaBr dilution); interstitial tissue thickness (ultrasound); vascular dimensions and dynamics (ultrasound and MRI (including cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility)); ocular measures (optical coherence tomography, intraocular pressure, ultrasound); and ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight measures will be assessed while upright, supine and during 15 deg head-down tilt (HDT). In-flight measures will occur early and late during 6 or 12 month missions. LBNP will be evaluated as a countermeasure during HDT and during spaceflight. RESULTS: The first two crewmembers are in the preflight testing phase. Preliminary results characterize the acute fluid shifts experienced from upright, to supine and HDT postures (increased stroke volume, jugular dimensions and measures of ICP) which are reversed with 25 millimeters Hg LBNP. DISCUSSION: Initial results indicate that acute cephalad fluid shifts may be related to VIIP symptoms, but also may be reversible by LBNP. The effect of a chronic fluid shift has yet to be evaluated. Learning Objectives: Current spaceflight VIIP research is described

  13. Merging of Rhine flow regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bronstert, Axel; Bürger, Gerd

    2016-04-01

    The Rhine flow regime is changing: (a) in the alpine nival regime, snow melt floods occur earlier in the year and (b) in the pluvial middle-Rhine regime, rainfall induced flood magnitudes rise. The seasonality of each is currently separated in time, but it is conceivable that this may shift due to climate change. If extremes of both flood types coincide, this would create a new type of hydrologic extreme with disastrous consequences. Quantifying the probability for a future overlap of pluvial and nival floods is therefore of high relevance to society and particularly to reinsurance companies. In order to investigate possible changes in magnitude and timing of flood types, we are developing a chain of physical models for spatio-temporal combination of flood probabilities. As input, we aim to use stochastically downscaled temperature and rainfall extremes from climate model weather projections. Preliminary research shows a six-week forward-shift of peak discharge at the nival gauge Maxau in the past century. The aim of presenting our early-stage work as a poster is to induce an exchange of ideas with fellow scientists in close research disciplines.

  14. The precursory fault width formation and critical stress state of impending large earthquakes: The observation and deterministic forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeda, F.

    2009-12-01

    Dividing Japan into meshes of about 5 degrees, we collect earthquakes (EQs) for each mesh-area from an on-line JMA focus catalog of Japan with a regionally dependent magnitude window of M ≥ 3-3.5. The time history of each mesh-collection is a string of EQ events, which draw a zigzagged trajectory in a physical space. The space coordinates are the EQ epicenter, focal depth (DEP), inter-EQ time interval (INT), and magnitude (MAG). Thus, each coordinate component of the trajectory is the time series of the corresponding EQ source parameter where time is the chronological event index. The zigzagged motion appears random like Brownian motion; however, it is a deterministic chaos. The evidence is that the largest Lyapunov exponents of each trajectory are all positive, statistically distinct from those surrogated by randomly shuffling only the event index. Thus, the deterministic chaos suggests that any impending large EQ does not rupture randomly and that some deterministic seismogenesis controls the rupture process. Namely, some short-term deterministic forecasting is theoretically possible. Therefore, we first take a moving-average of 15-25 events on each series to reduce the zigzagged motion. We further take its second order difference at the interval of 20-35 events to find its acceleration (seismogenic force) acting on each averaged series. We then find only two unique different triple phase couplings of the acceleration on source parameter DEP, INT, and MAG precursory to every impending large EQs (M > about 6) throughout Japan [Takeda, 2003; Takeda and Takeo, 2004]. Each triple phase coupling begins the MAG with medium MAG of about 4.1 at either small (shallow) DEP and large INT or large (deep) DEP and small INT, then change it to small MAG of about 3.8 at either deep DEP and small INT or shallow DEP and large INT. The transition of the EQ state creates a large linear DEP variation (W) on its series, which is found comparable to the fault width of large EQs

  15. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, M.; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Lauriie, S.; Garcia, K.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Ribeiro, L.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R.; Chang, D.; Johnston, S.; Ploutz-Snyder, R.; Smith, S.

    2016-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 50% of ISS astronauts experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's preflight conditions and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. METHODS: We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by

  16. Paradigm Shifts in the Treatment of Appendicitis.

    PubMed

    Mak, Grace Zee; Loeff, Deborah S

    2016-07-01

    Acute appendicitis is the most common cause of emergent surgery in children. Historically, surgical dogma dictated emergent appendectomy due to concern for impending perforation. Recently, however, there has been a paradigm shift in both the understanding of its pathophysiology as well as its treatment to more nonoperative management. No longer is it considered a spectrum from uncomplicated appendicitis inevitably progressing to complicated appendicitis over time. Rather, uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis are now considered two distinct pathophysiologic entities. This change requires not only educating the patients and their families but also the general practitioners who will be managing treatment expectations and caring for patients long term. In this article, we review the pathophysiology of appendicitis, including the differentiation between uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis, as well as the new treatment paradigms. [Pediatr Ann. 2016;45(7):e235-e240.]. PMID:27403670

  17. Fluid Shifts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stenger, Michael; Hargens, A.; Dulchavsky, S.; Ebert, D.; Lee, S.; Sargsyan, A.; Martin, D.; Lui, J.; Macias, B.; Arbeille, P.; Platts, S.

    2014-01-01

    NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 30% of ISS astronauts experience more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the space flight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration space flight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during space flight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight condition and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound

  18. Scarcity and Surplus: Shifting Regimes of Childhood in Nicaragua

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tully, Sheila R.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the multiple meanings of children and childhood in Nicaragua during periods of dramatic sociopolitical and economic transitions. The article compares the state's responsibilities to Nicaraguan children and their families during the decade of revolution and first year of the post-revolutionary period. It argues that each state…

  19. Gender and Shifts in Higher Education Managerial Regimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carvalho, Teresa; Machado, Maria de Lurdes

    2010-01-01

    While Portugal is one of the European countries with a high representation of women in higher education, there is both horizontal and vertical segregation. The way universities and especially managerial positions are culturally embedded by masculinity is one of the obstacles women have traditionally faced. Recently, higher education institutions…

  20. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  1. Proximal tibial fractures with impending compartment syndrome managed by fasciotomy and internal fixation: A retrospective analysis of 15 cases

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Naveen; Singh, Varun; Agrawal, Ashish; Bhargava, Rakesh

    2015-01-01

    Background: Proximal tibia fractures with compartment syndrome present a challenge for orthopedic surgeons. More often than not these patients are subjected to multiple surgeries and are complicated by infection osteomyelitis and poor rehabilitation. There is no consensus in the management of these fractures. Most common mode is to do early fasciotomy with external fixation, followed by second stage definitive fixation. We performed a retrospective study of proximal tibia fractures with impending compartment syndrome treated by single stage fasciotomy and internal fixation. Results in terms of early fracture union, minimum complications and early patient mobilization were very good. Materials and Methods: Fifteen patients who were operated between July 2011 and June 2012 were selected for the study. All documents from their admission until the last followup in December 2013 were reviewed, data regarding complications collected and results were evaluated using Oxford Knee scoring system. Results: At the final outcome, there was anatomical or near anatomical alignment with no postoperative problems with range of motion of near complete flexion (>120) in all patients within 3 months. 13 patients started full weight bearing walking at 3 months. Delayed union in two patients and skin necrosis in one patient was observed. Conclusions: Since the results are encouraging and the rehabilitation time is much less when compared to conventional approaches, it is recommended using this protocol to perform early fasciotomy with the definitive internal fixation as single stage surgery to obtain excellent followup results and to reduce rehabilitation time, secondary trauma, expense of treatment and infection rate. PMID:26538755

  2. Use of negative pressure wound therapy as an adjunct to the treatment of extremity soft-tissue sarcoma with ulceration or impending ulceration

    PubMed Central

    CHEN, YU; XU, SONG-FENG; XU, MING; YU, XIU-CHUN

    2016-01-01

    Major wound complications of the extremities, following wide tumor resection and reconstruction for soft-tissue sarcomas (STSs), remain a challenge for limb-sparing surgery. Furthermore, STSs with ulceration or impending ulceration predispose patients to an increased risk of post-operative infection. The present study was conducted to assess the efficacy of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in preventing wound complications associated with surgical treatment of STSs with ulceration or impending ulceration, in patients treated between February 2012 and January 2013. A total of 5 patients, with a mean age of 48 years (range, 24–68 years), were enrolled in the present study. The diagnoses consisted of undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (n=2), leiomyosarcoma (n=1), synovial sarcoma (n=1) and epithelioid sarcoma (n=1). According to American Joint Committee on Cancer criteria, 3 cases were stage III tumors, and the remaining 2 cases were of stages IIA and IIB, respectively. A total of 3 patients exhibited ulceration at diagnosis, and the remaining patients demonstrated impending ulceration. The mean wound area following wide resection of the tumor was 73 cm2 (range, 45–110 cm2). A continuous suction mode, with pressures measuring −200 to −300 mmHg, was used for 7–10 days on the soft-tissue defects as preparation for wound closure. Soft-tissue reconstruction included muscle flaps (n=2) and skin grafts (n=5). No major wound complications occurred. Post-operative functional and cosmetic outcomes were acceptable. A single patient demonstrated local recurrence 12 months after surgery and re-excision of the tumor was performed. All patients remained alive at the conclusion of follow-up, with a mean follow-up time of 26 months (range, 12–36 months). The present study demonstrated that NPWT is effective and safe when used as an adjunct to wound closure following resection of extremity STS with ulceration/impending ulceration. PMID:27347212

  3. Impending ionospheric anomaly preceding the Iquique Mw8.2 earthquake in Chile on 2014 April 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jinyun; Li, Wang; Yu, Hongjuan; Liu, Zhimin; Zhao, Chunmei; Kong, Qiaoli

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the coupling relationship between great earthquake and ionosphere, the GPS-derived total electron contents (TECs) by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe and the foF2 data from the Space Weather Prediction Center were used to analyse the impending ionospheric anomalies before the Iquique Mw8.2 earthquake in Chile on 2014 April 1. Eliminating effects of the solar and geomagnetic activities on ionosphere by the sliding interquartile range with the 27-day window, the TEC analysis results represent that there were negative anomalies occurred on 15th day prior to the earthquake, and positive anomalies appeared in 5th day before the earthquake. The foF2 analysis results of ionosonde stations Jicamarca, Concepcion and Ramey show that the foF2 increased by 40, 50 and 45 per cent, respectively, on 5th day before the earthquake. The TEC anomalous distribution indicates that there was a widely TEC decrement over the epicentre with the duration of 6 hr on 15th day before the earthquake. On 5th day before the earthquake, the TEC over the epicentre increased with the amplitude of 15 TECu, and the duration exceeded 6 hr. The anomalies occurred on the side away from the equator. All TEC anomalies in these days were within the bounds of equatorial anomaly zone where should be the focal area to monitor ionospheric anomaly before strong earthquakes. The relationship between ionospheric anomalies and geomagnetic activity was detected by the cross wavelet analysis, which implied that the foF2 was not affected by the magnetic activities on 15th day and 5th day prior to the earthquake, but the TECs were partially affected by anomalous magnetic activity during some periods of 5th day prior to the earthquake.

  4. Arctic circulation regimes.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  5. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  6. Regimes of Helium Burning

    SciTech Connect

    Timmes, F. X.; Niemeyer, J. C.

    2000-07-10

    The burning regimes encountered by laminar deflagrations and Zeldovich von Neumann Doering [ZND] detonations propagating through helium-rich compositions in the presence of buoyancy-driven turbulence are analyzed. Particular attention is given to models of X-ray bursts that start with a thermonuclear runaway on the surface of a neutron star and to the thin-shell helium instability of intermediate-mass stars. In the X-ray burst case, turbulent deflagrations propagating in the lateral or radial direction encounter a transition from the distributed regime to the flamelet regime at a density of {approx}108 g cm-3. In the radial direction, the purely laminar deflagration width is larger than the pressure scale height for densities smaller than {approx}106 g cm-3. Self-sustained laminar deflagrations traveling in the radial direction cannot exist below this density. Similarly, the planar ZND detonation width becomes larger than the pressure scale height at {approx}107 g cm-3, suggesting that steady state, self-sustained detonations cannot come into existence in the radial direction. In the thin helium shell case, turbulent deflagrations traveling in the lateral or radial direction encounter the distributed regime at densities below {approx}107 g cm-3 and the flamelet regime at larger densities. In the radial direction, the purely laminar deflagration width is larger than the pressure scale height for densities smaller than {approx}104 g cm-3, indicating that steady state laminar deflagrations cannot form below this density. The planar ZND detonation width becomes larger than the pressure scale height at {approx}5x10{sup 4} g cm-3, suggesting that steady state, self-sustained detonations cannot come into existence in the radial direction. (c) 2000 The American Astronomical Society.

  7. Ecohydrology by thinking outside the bog: Shifting paradigms in an era of shifting peatland ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waddington, James; Moore, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Large shifts in vegetation distributions are occurring worldwide and at unprecedented rates. The most extreme of these regime shifts are expected to occur at ecosystem boundaries of both semi-arid and semi-humid landscapes. Despite extensive hydrological research on the interactions between water and semi-arid ecosystems, research in peatlands on the wet end of ecosystem continuum has been "bogged down" (pun fully intended) by the traditional conceptual models (paradigms?) of peatland hydrology and ecology. The consequences of this "thinking" are large given that northern peatlands provide important global and regional ecosystem services (carbon storage, water storage, and biodiversity). This is especially true because peatlands face increases in the severity, areal extent, and frequency of climate-mediated (e.g., wildfire, drought) and land-use change (e.g., drainage, flooding, and mining) disturbances placing the future security of these critical ecosystem services in doubt. We use the word doubt because while numerical modelling studies predict peatland regime shifts and the demise of global peat stocks, there is growing evidence that peatlands are self-regulating ecosystems dominated by negative ecohydrological feedbacks that stabilize the aforementioned ecosystem services through high ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This raises several important hydrological questions? "Is there field evidence of peatland regime shifts? If so, what are the potential impacts of these shifts on water resources and watershed management? If not, are researchers actually looking in the right places (or times)? In this presentation we explore the need for a "thinking outside the bog" in order to understand the ecohydrological consequences of transformative landscape change caused by peatland regime shifts. With reference to over two decades of field research, recent advances with our Peatland Hydrological Impacts model and recent research examining primary peat formation, we

  8. The influence of intramedullary nailing upon the development of metastases in the treatment of an impending pathological fracture: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Bouma, W H; Mulder, J H; Hop, W C

    1983-01-01

    An experimental model has been developed in which the effects of a pathological fracture and intramedullary nailing on metastatic spread have been investigated. The endpoint used was the production of lung metastases in rats inoculated intracortically with a rhabdomyosarcoma. We have found that a pathological fracture markedly increases the incidence of lung metastases and that intramedullary nailing, by decreasing the incidence of fractures, decreases the incidence of lung metastases. The surgical procedure itself does not increase the incidence significantly. It is concluded that in metastatic disease prophylactic nailing of an impending pathological fracture is the treatment of choice. PMID:6546199

  9. Psychopathology of Shift Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akinnawo, Ebenezer Olutope

    1989-01-01

    Examined incidence and nature of general psychopathology among Nigerian shift workers (N=320). Found shift workers more significantly psychopathological than non-shift workers (p<0.001). Prominent disorders among shift workers were intellectual, sleep, mood, and general somatic disorders. No significant difference could be attributed to gender and…

  10. Phase contrast and operation regimes in multifrequency atomic force microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Santos, Sergio

    2014-04-07

    In amplitude modulation atomic force microscopy the attractive and the repulsive force regimes induce phase shifts above and below 90°, respectively. In the more recent multifrequency approach, however, multiple operation regimes have been reported and the theory should be revisited. Here, a theory of phase contrast in multifrequency atomic force microscopy is developed and discussed in terms of energy transfer between modes, energy dissipation and the kinetic energy and energy transfer associated with externally driven harmonics. The single frequency virial that controls the phase shift might undergo transitions in sign while the average force (modal virial) remains positive (negative)