BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2017-09-11

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

2015-07-01

The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

PubMed Central

Alaminos, David; del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

2016-01-01

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy. PMID:27880810

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burt, James E.

This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

Recent results of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Takuji; Oki, Riko; Furukawa, Kinji; Kaneko, Yuki; Yamaji, Moeka; Iguchi, Toshio; Takayabu, Yukari

2017-04-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international collaboration to achieve highly accurate and highly frequent global precipitation observations. The GPM mission consists of the GPM Core Observatory jointly developed by U.S. and Japan and Constellation Satellites that carry microwave radiometers and provided by the GPM partner agencies. The GPM Core Observatory, launched on February 2014, carries the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT). JAXA develops the DPR Level 1 algorithm, and the NASA-JAXA Joint Algorithm Team develops the DPR Level 2 and DPR-GMI combined Level2 algorithms. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started the DPR assimilation in the meso-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system on March 24 2016. This was regarded as the world's first "operational" assimilation of spaceborne radar data in the NWP system of meteorological agencies. JAXA also develops the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), as national product to distribute hourly and 0.1-degree horizontal resolution rainfall map. The GSMaP near-real-time version (GSMaP_NRT) product is available 4-hour after observation through the "JAXA Global Rainfall Watch" web site (http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP) since 2008. The GSMaP_NRT product gives higher priority to data latency than accuracy, and has been used by various users for various purposes, such as rainfall monitoring, flood alert and warning, drought monitoring, crop yield forecast, and agricultural insurance. There is, however, a requirement for shortening of data latency time from GSMaP users. To reduce data latency, JAXA has developed the GSMaP realtime version (GSMaP_NOW) product for observation area of the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). GSMaP_NOW product was released to public in November 2, 2015 through the

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

1997-01-01

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2012-01-01

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Global scale groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Improvements in the Global Reference Atmospheric Model and comparisons with a global 3-D numerical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Chimonas, George; Cunnold, D. M.

1989-01-01

The status of the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) and the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (MARS-GRAM) is reviewed. The wavelike perturbations observed in the Viking 1 and 2 surface pressure data, in the Mariner 9 IR spectroscopy data, and in the Viking 1 and 2 lander entry profiles were studied and the results interpreted.

Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

Global Futures: a multithreaded execution model for Global Arrays-based applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Vishnu, Abhinav

2012-05-31

We present Global Futures (GF), an execution model extension to Global Arrays, which is based on a PGAS-compatible Active Message-based paradigm. We describe the design and implementation of Global Futures and illustrate its use in a computational chemistry application benchmark (Hartree-Fock matrix construction using the Self-Consistent Field method). Our results show how we used GF to increase the scalability of the Hartree-Fock matrix build to up to 6,144 cores of an Infiniband cluster. We also show how GF's multithreaded execution has comparable performance to the traditional process-based SPMD model.

Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

2014-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and Model • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation Model • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the

A high-resolution global flood hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-09-01

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

Volcanic Ash Data Assimilation System for Atmospheric Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, K.; Shimbori, T.; Sato, E.; Tokumoto, T.; Hayashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.

2017-12-01

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has two operations for volcanic ash forecasts, which are Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) and Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA). In these operations, the forecasts are calculated by atmospheric transport models including the advection process, the turbulent diffusion process, the gravitational fall process and the deposition process (wet/dry). The initial distribution of volcanic ash in the models is the most important but uncertain factor. In operations, the model of Suzuki (1983) with many empirical assumptions is adopted to the initial distribution. This adversely affects the reconstruction of actual eruption plumes.We are developing a volcanic ash data assimilation system using weather radars and meteorological satellite observation, in order to improve the initial distribution of the atmospheric transport models. Our data assimilation system is based on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation method (3D-Var). Analysis variables are ash concentration and size distribution parameters which are mutually independent. The radar observation is expected to provide three-dimensional parameters such as ash concentration and parameters of ash particle size distribution. On the other hand, the satellite observation is anticipated to provide two-dimensional parameters of ash clouds such as mass loading, top height and particle effective radius. In this study, we estimate the thickness of ash clouds using vertical wind shear of JMA numerical weather prediction, and apply for the volcanic ash data assimilation system.

Global Core Plasma Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, Paul D.; Comfort, Richard H.

1999-01-01

Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities. Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of thermal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

2013-12-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and also supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, the large natural groundwater storage provides a buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a transient global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013) combined with information about e.g. aquifer thickness and presence of less permeable, impermeable, and semi-impermeable layers. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with observations, from North America and Australia, resulting in a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively. This shows that it is feasible to build a global groundwater model using best available

Global thermal models of the lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

2017-12-01

Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

2013-01-01

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

2005-01-01

Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

2017-05-01

The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

2016-04-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

PubMed

Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

1998-01-01

A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

2016-05-01

Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Global Carbon Cycle Modeling in GISS ModelE2 GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.

2014-12-01

Consistent and accurate modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle remains one of the main challenges for the Earth System Models. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 General Circulation Model (GCM) was recently equipped with a complete Global Carbon Cycle algorithm, consisting of three integrated components: Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), Ocean Biogeochemistry Module and atmospheric CO2 tracer. Ent TBM provides CO2 fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere. Its biophysics utilizes the well-known photosynthesis functions of Farqhuar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and Farqhuar and von Caemmerer, and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Its phenology is based on temperature, drought, and radiation fluxes, and growth is controlled via allocation of carbon from labile carbohydrate reserve storage to different plant components. Soil biogeochemistry is based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford (CASA) model of Potter et al. Ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. Atmospheric CO2 is advected with a quadratic upstream algorithm implemented in atmospheric part of ModelE2. Here we present the results for pre-industrial equilibrium and modern transient simulations and provide comparison to available observations. We also discuss the process of validation and tuning of particular algorithms used in the model.

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

2016-04-01

Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Global models for synthetic fuels planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamontagne, J.

1983-10-01

This study was performed to identify the set of existing global models with the best potential for use in the US Synthetic Fuels Corporation's strategic planning process, and to recommend the most appropriate model. The study was limited to global models with representations that encompass time horizons beyond the year 2000, multiple fuel forms, and significant regional detail. Potential accessibility to the Synthetic Fuels Corporation and adequate documentation were also required. Four existing models (LORENDAS, WIM, IIASA, and IEA/ORAU) were judged to be the best candidates for the SFC's use at this time; none of the models appears to bemore » ideal for the SFC's purposes. On the basis of currently available information, the most promising short-term option open to the SFC is the use of LORENDAS, with careful attention to definition of alternative energy demand scenarios. Longer-term options which deserve further study are coupling LORENDAS with an explicit model of energy demand, and modification of the IEA/ORAU model to include finer time-period definition and additional technological detail.« less

The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

2016-12-01

The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

The Emerging Global Model with Chinese Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohrman, Kathryn

2008-01-01

The Emerging Global Model is the blueprint for China's leading research universities to become internationally respected institutions. Government leaders and campus administrators seek universities with the research intensity and global perspective of the best European and North American institutions. International ranking systems provide…

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

Challenges in Global Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, K. C.

2011-12-01

For the purposes of projecting and anticipating human-induced land use change at the global scale, much work remains in the systematic mapping and modeling of world-wide land uses and their related dynamics. In particular, research has focused on tropical deforestation, loss of prime agricultural land, loss of wild land and open space, and the spread of urbanization. Fifteen years of experience in modeling land use and land cover change at the regional and city level with the cellular automata model SLEUTH, including cross city and regional comparisons, has led to an ability to comment on the challenges and constraints that apply to global level land use change modeling. Some issues are common to other modeling domains, such as scaling, earth geometry, and model coupling. Others relate to geographical scaling of human activity, while some are issues of data fusion and international interoperability. Grid computing now offers the prospect of global land use change simulation. This presentation summarizes what barriers face global scale land use modeling, but also highlights the benefits of such modeling activity on global change research. An approach to converting land use maps and forecasts into environmental impact measurements is proposed. Using such an approach means that multitemporal mapping, often using remotely sensed sources, and forecasting can also yield results showing the overall and disaggregated status of the environment.

Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

2018-01-01

Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven;

[Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.

1999-01-01

This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.

A mesoscale hybrid data assimilation system based on the JMA nonhydrostatic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, K.; Kunii, M.; Kawabata, T. T.; Saito, K. K.; Duc, L. L.

2015-12-01

This work evaluates the potential of a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for predicting severe weather events from a deterministic point of view. This hybrid system is an adjoint-based 4D-Var system using a background error covariance matrix constructed from the mixture of a so-called NMC method and perturbations in a local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation system, both of which are based on the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model. To construct the background error covariance matrix, we investigated two types of schemes. One is a spatial localization scheme and the other is neighboring ensemble approach, which regards the result at a horizontally spatially shifted point in each ensemble member as that obtained from a different realization of ensemble simulation. An assimilation of a pseudo single-observation located to the north of a tropical cyclone (TC) yielded an analysis increment of wind and temperature physically consistent with what is expected for a mature TC in both hybrid systems, whereas an analysis increment in a 4D-Var system using a static background error covariance distorted a structure of the mature TC. Real data assimilation experiments applied to 4 TCs and 3 local heavy rainfall events showed that hybrid systems and EnKF provided better initial conditions than the NMC-based 4D-Var, both for predicting the intensity and track forecast of TCs and for the location and amount of local heavy rainfall events.

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

PubMed Central

Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

The Global Flood Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

2012-04-01

Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

Global Regularity for Several Incompressible Fluid Models with Partial Dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiahong; Xu, Xiaojing; Ye, Zhuan

2017-09-01

This paper examines the global regularity problem on several 2D incompressible fluid models with partial dissipation. They are the surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) equation, the 2D Euler equation and the 2D Boussinesq equations. These are well-known models in fluid mechanics and geophysics. The fundamental issue of whether or not they are globally well-posed has attracted enormous attention. The corresponding models with partial dissipation may arise in physical circumstances when the dissipation varies in different directions. We show that the SQG equation with either horizontal or vertical dissipation always has global solutions. This is in sharp contrast with the inviscid SQG equation for which the global regularity problem remains outstandingly open. Although the 2D Euler is globally well-posed for sufficiently smooth data, the associated equations with partial dissipation no longer conserve the vorticity and the global regularity is not trivial. We are able to prove the global regularity for two partially dissipated Euler equations. Several global bounds are also obtained for a partially dissipated Boussinesq system.

Requirements for a next generation global flood inundation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.

2016-12-01

In this paper we review the current status of global hydrodynamic models for flood inundation prediction and highlight recent successes and current limitations. Building on this analysis we then go on to consider what is required to develop the next generation of such schemes and show that to achieve this a number of fundamental science problems will need to be overcome. New data sets and new types of analysis will be required, and we show that these will only partially be met by currently planned satellite missions and data collection initiatives. A particular example is the quality of available global Digital Elevation data. The current best data set for flood modelling, SRTM, is only available at a relatively modest 30m resolution, contains pixel-to-pixel noise of 6m and is corrupted by surface artefacts. Creative processing techniques have sought to address these issues with some success, but fundamentally the quality of the available global terrain data limits flood modelling and needs to be overcome. Similar arguments can be made for many other elements of global hydrodynamic models including their bathymetry data, boundary conditions, flood defence information and model validation data. We therefore systematically review each component of global flood models and document whether planned new technology will solve current limitations and, if not, what exactly will be required to do so.

Comparison of global and regional ionospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranner, H.-P.; Krauss, S.; Stangl, G.

2012-04-01

Modelling of the Earth's ionosphere means the description of the variability of the vertical TEC (Total Electron Content) in dependence of geographic latitude and longitude, height, diurnal and seasonal variation as well as solar activity. Within the project GIOMO (next Generation near real-time IOnospheric MOdels) the objectives are the identification and consolidation of improved ionospheric modelling technologies. The global models Klobuchar (GPS) and NeQuick (currently in use by EGNOS, in future used by Galileo) are compared to the IGS (International GNSS Service) Final GIM (Global Ionospheric Map). Additionally a RIM (Regional Ionospheric Map) for Europe provided by CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is investigated. Furthermore the OLG (Observatorium Lustbühel Graz) regional models are calculated for two test beds with different latitudes and extensions (Western Austria and the Aegean region). There are three different approaches, two RIMs are based on spherical harmonics calculated either from code or phase measurements and one RIM is based on a Taylor series expansion around a central point estimated from zero-difference observations. The benefits of regional models are the local flexibility using a dense network of GNSS stations. Near real-time parameters are provided within ten minutes after every clock hour. All models have been compared according to their general behavior, the ability to react upon extreme solar events and the robustness of estimation. A ranking of the different models showed a preference for the RIMs while the global models should be used within a fall-back strategy.

Global Modeling of Tropospheric Chemistry with Assimilated Meteorology: Model Description and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bey, Isabelle; Jacob, Daniel J.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Field, Brendan D.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Li, Qin-Bin; Liu, Hong-Yu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Schultz, Martin G.

2001-01-01

We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source

Modeling nitrous oxide emission from rivers: a global assessment.

PubMed

Hu, Minpeng; Chen, Dingjiang; Dahlgren, Randy A

2016-11-01

Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta-analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N 2 O flux was significantly correlated with NH 4 , NO 3 and DIN (NH 4  + NO 3 ) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N 2 O emission rates (EF(a): R 2  = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R 2  = 0.91 for global model and R 2  = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N 2 O emission rates of 29.6-35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 and emission factors of 0.16-0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N 2 O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates (300-2100 Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 ) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N 2 O emission estimates will be further

Real-Time Global Nonlinear Aerodynamic Modeling for Learn-To-Fly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2016-01-01

Flight testing and modeling techniques were developed to accurately identify global nonlinear aerodynamic models for aircraft in real time. The techniques were developed and demonstrated during flight testing of a remotely-piloted subscale propeller-driven fixed-wing aircraft using flight test maneuvers designed to simulate a Learn-To-Fly scenario. Prediction testing was used to evaluate the quality of the global models identified in real time. The real-time global nonlinear aerodynamic modeling algorithm will be integrated and further tested with learning adaptive control and guidance for NASA Learn-To-Fly concept flight demonstrations.

Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

2009-02-01

A global optical model potential (GDP08) for He3 projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of He3 from targets of 40⩽AT⩽209 at incident energies of 30⩽Einc⩽217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of H3 as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for He3-nucleus and H3-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6⩽AT⩽232 at incident energies of 4⩽Einc⩽450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus Ca40, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58≲AT≲120 at Einc<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

Modeling global change impacts on Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, D. W.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget and includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost. The region has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts), natural disturbances (wildfires and insect outbreaks), and land-use change (timber harvest, urbanization, expansion and abandonment of agricultural lands) over the past century. These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from deserts to forests, with significant areas of croplands, pastures, and urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. We provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. First, we review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system through scale, teleconnections or processes, there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks among components within the Earth system. As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how relevant current studies, which do not account for these feedbacks, may be for policymaking. Next, we review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce human activity models (e.g., global trade, economic models, demographic models), and the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth System Models. Finally, we examine emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled

A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

2014-09-01

Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle. It is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are essential for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but these models must first be evaluated in terms of their skill in recreating present day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales, by comparing carbonate budget outputs with independent estimates. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an observation-based dataset for the model evaluation. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically-developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). None of the four models correlated with independent rate estimates of whole reef calcification. The temperature-only based approach was the only model output to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modeling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence coral cover, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely

Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

2015-03-01

Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle; it is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are needed for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past and into the future. However, before any projections can be made, the basic test is to establish model skill in recreating present-day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an independent observation-based data set for the model evaluation of carbonate budget outputs. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). No model was able to reproduce independent rate estimates of whole-reef calcification, and the output from the temperature-only based approach was the only model to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modelling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence calcifier abundance, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef

Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

2017-11-01

The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.

Fast Magnetotail Reconnection: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Toth, G.; de Zeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

2005-05-01

Representation of fast magnetotail reconnection rates during substorm onset is one of the major challenges to global MHD modeling. Our previous comparative study of collisionless magnetic reconnection in GEM Challenge geometry demonstrated that the reconnection rate is controlled by ion nongyrotropic behavior near the reconnection site and that it can be described in terms of nongyrotropic corrections to the magnetic induction equation. To further test the approach we performed MHD simulations with nongyrotropic corrections of forced reconnection for the Newton Challenge setup. As a next step we employ the global MHD code BATSRUS and test different methods to model fast magnetotail reconnection rates by introducing non-ideal corrections to the induction equation in terms of nongyrotropic corrections, spatially localized resistivity, or current dependent resistivity. The BATSRUS adaptive grid structure allows to perform global simulations with spatial resolution near the reconnection site comparable with spatial resolution of local MHD simulations for the Newton Challenge. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

1993-01-01

The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

Conceptual model for partnership and sustainability in global health.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Mitchell, Emma

2011-01-01

Although nursing has a long history of service to the global community, the profession lacks a theoretical and empirical base for nurses to frame their global practice. A study using grounded theory methodology to investigate partnership and sustainability for global health led to the development of a conceptual model. Interviews were conducted with 13 global health nurse experts. Themes from the interviews were: components for engagement, mutual goal setting, cultural bridging, collaboration, capacity building, leadership, partnership, ownership, and sustainability. Next, the identified themes were reviewed in the literature in order to evaluate their conceptual relationships. Finally, careful comparison of the interview transcripts and the supporting literature led to the Conceptual Framework for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health Nursing. The model posits that engagement and partnership must precede any planning and intervention in order to create sustainable interventions. This conceptual framework will offer nurses important guidance for global health nursing practice. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model GDEM

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-06-29

NASA and Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry METI released the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model GDEM to the worldwide public on June 29, 2009.

Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Kimberly M.

Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

2014-11-01

Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.

2017-01-01

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model developed by MSFC that is widely used for diverse mission applications including: Systems design; Performance analysis; Operations planning for aerobraking, Entry, Descent and Landing, and aerocapture; Is not a forecast model; Outputs include density, temperature, pressure, wind components, and chemical composition; Provides dispersions of thermodynamic parameters, winds, and density; Optional trajectory and auxiliary profile input files Has been used in multiple studies and proposals including NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Autonomous Aerobraking and various Discovery proposals; Released in 2005; Available at: https://software.nasa.gov/software/MFS-32314-1.

One technique for refining the global Earth gravity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koneshov, V. N.; Nepoklonov, V. B.; Polovnev, O. V.

2017-01-01

The results of the theoretical and experimental research on the technique for refining the global Earth geopotential models such as EGM2008 in the continental regions are presented. The discussed technique is based on the high-resolution satellite data for the Earth's surface topography which enables the allowance for the fine structure of the Earth's gravitational field without the additional gravimetry data. The experimental studies are conducted by the example of the new GGMplus global gravity model of the Earth with a resolution about 0.5 km, which is obtained by expanding the EGM2008 model to degree 2190 with the corrections for the topograohy calculated from the SRTM data. The GGMplus and EGM2008 models are compared with the regional geoid models in 21 regions of North America, Australia, Africa, and Europe. The obtained estimates largely support the possibility of refining the global geopotential models such as EGM2008 by the procedure implemented in GGMplus, particularly in the regions with relatively high elevation difference.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, C. A.; Wang, W.; Ahijevych, D.

2017-12-01

In recent years, global prediction and climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, we examine the how well these models treat tropical cyclone intensity, measured from several different perspectives. The models evaluated include the operational Global Forecast System, with a grid spacing of about 13 km, and the Model for Prediction Across Scales, with a variable resolution of 15 km over the Northwest Pacific transitioning to 60 km elsewhere. We focus on the Northwest Pacific for the period July-October, 2016. Results indicate that discrimination of tropical cyclone intensity is reasonably good up to roughly category 3 storms. The models are able to capture storms of category 4 intensity, but still exhibit a negative intensity bias of 20-30 knots at lead times beyond 5 days. This is partly indicative of the large number of super-typhoons that occurred in 2016. The question arises of how well global models should represent intensity, given that it is unreasonable for them to depict the inner core of many intense tropical cyclones with a grid increment of 13-15 km. We compute an expected "best-case" prediction of intensity based on filtering the observed wind profiles of Atlantic tropical cyclones according to different hypothetical model resolutions. The Atlantic is used because of the significant number of reconnaissance missions and more reliable estimate of wind radii. Results indicate that, even under the most optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of 1/4 degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, models with a grid spacing of 1/4 degree or greater are unlikely to systematically discriminate hurricanes with differing intensity. Finally, for simple wind profiles, it is shown how an accurate

Real-Time Onboard Global Nonlinear Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandon, Jay M.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2014-01-01

Flight test and modeling techniques were developed to accurately identify global nonlinear aerodynamic models onboard an aircraft. The techniques were developed and demonstrated during piloted flight testing of an Aermacchi MB-326M Impala jet aircraft. Advanced piloting techniques and nonlinear modeling techniques based on fuzzy logic and multivariate orthogonal function methods were implemented with efficient onboard calculations and flight operations to achieve real-time maneuver monitoring and analysis, and near-real-time global nonlinear aerodynamic modeling and prediction validation testing in flight. Results demonstrated that global nonlinear aerodynamic models for a large portion of the flight envelope were identified rapidly and accurately using piloted flight test maneuvers during a single flight, with the final identified and validated models available before the aircraft landed.

What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

2015-12-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

MERIT DEM: A new high-accuracy global digital elevation model and its merit to global hydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, D.; Ikeshima, D.; Neal, J. C.; O'Loughlin, F.; Sampson, C. C.; Kanae, S.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are fundamental data for flood modelling. While precise airborne DEMs are available in developed regions, most parts of the world rely on spaceborne DEMs which include non-negligible height errors. Here we show the most accurate global DEM to date at 90m resolution by eliminating major error components from the SRTM and AW3D DEMs. Using multiple satellite data and multiple filtering techniques, we addressed absolute bias, stripe noise, speckle noise and tree height bias from spaceborne DEMs. After the error removal, significant improvements were found in flat regions where height errors were larger than topography variability, and landscapes features such as river networks and hill-valley structures became clearly represented. We found the topography slope of the previous DEMs was largely distorted in most of world major floodplains (e.g. Ganges, Nile, Niger, Mekong) and swamp forests (e.g. Amazon, Congo, Vasyugan). The developed DEM will largely reduce the uncertainty in both global and regional flood modelling.

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

Spatially-explicit models of global tree density.

PubMed

Glick, Henry B; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S; Covey, Kristofer R; Smith, Jeffrey R; Crowther, Thomas W

2016-08-16

Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services.

A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

2008-03-01

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

PubMed Central

Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

2010-01-01

Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walters, David; Boutle, Ian; Brooks, Malcolm; Melvin, Thomas; Stratton, Rachel; Vosper, Simon; Wells, Helen; Williams, Keith; Wood, Nigel; Allen, Thomas; Bushell, Andrew; Copsey, Dan; Earnshaw, Paul; Edwards, John; Gross, Markus; Hardiman, Steven; Harris, Chris; Heming, Julian; Klingaman, Nicholas; Levine, Richard; Manners, James; Martin, Gill; Milton, Sean; Mittermaier, Marion; Morcrette, Cyril; Riddick, Thomas; Roberts, Malcolm; Sanchez, Claudio; Selwood, Paul; Stirling, Alison; Smith, Chris; Suri, Dan; Tennant, Warren; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wilkinson, Jonathan; Willett, Martin; Woolnough, Steve; Xavier, Prince

2017-04-01

We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Land 6.0 (GA6.0/GL6.0): the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model developed for use across all timescales. Global Atmosphere 6.0 includes the ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment) dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known model bias. Alongside developments of the model's physical parametrisations, ENDGame also increases variability in the tropics, which leads to an improved representation of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena. Further developments of the atmospheric and land surface parametrisations improve other aspects of model performance, including the forecasting of surface weather phenomena. We also describe GA6.1/GL6.1, which includes a small number of long-standing differences from our main trunk configurations that we continue to require for operational global weather prediction. Since July 2014, GA6.1/GL6.1 has been used by the Met Office for operational global numerical weather prediction, whilst GA6.0/GL6.0 was implemented in its remaining global prediction systems over the following year.

Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

2009-04-01

Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

Global adjoint tomography: First-generation model

DOE PAGES

Bozdag, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; ...

2016-09-22

We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named ‘Titan’, a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematicallymore » reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used ‘crustal corrections’. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M w ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching

Global adjoint tomography: First-generation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bozdag, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu

We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named ‘Titan’, a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematicallymore » reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used ‘crustal corrections’. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M w ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching

Global Magnetosphere Modeling With Kinetic Treatment of Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, G.; Chen, Y.; Gombosi, T. I.; Cassak, P.; Markidis, S.; Peng, B.; Henderson, M. G.

2017-12-01

Global magnetosphere simulations with a kinetic treatment of magnetic reconnection are very challenging because of the large separation of global and kinetic scales. We have developed two algorithms that can overcome these difficulties: 1) the two-way coupling of the global magnetohydrodynamic code with an embedded particle-in-cell model (MHD-EPIC) and 2) the artificial increase of the ion and electron kinetic scales. Both of these techniques improve the efficiency of the simulations by many orders of magnitude. We will describe the techniques and show that they provide correct and meaningful results. Using the coupled model and the increased kinetic scales, we will present global magnetosphere simulations with the PIC domains covering the dayside and/or tail reconnection sites. The simulation results will be compared to and validated with MMS observations.

A Martian global groundwater model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, Alan D.

1991-01-01

A global groundwater flow model was constructed for Mars to study hydrologic response under a variety of scenarios, improving and extending earlier simple cross sectional models. The model is capable of treating both steady state and transient flow as well as permeability that is anisotropic in the horizontal dimensions. A single near surface confining layer may be included (representing in these simulations a coherent permafrost layer). Furthermore, in unconfined flow, locations of complete saturation and seepage are determined. The flow model assumes that groundwater gradients are sufficiently low that DuPuit conditions are satisfied and the flow component perpendicular to the ground surface is negligible. The flow equations were solved using a finite difference method employing 10 deg spacing of latitude and longitude.

The substorm cycle as reproduced by global MHD models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordeev, E.; Sergeev, V.; Tsyganenko, N.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastäetter, L.; Raeder, J.; Tóth, G.; Lyon, J.; Merkin, V.; Wiltberger, M.

2017-01-01

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized 2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded/unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to postprocessing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

The Substorm Cycle as Reproduced by Global MHD Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordeev, E.; Sergee, V.; Tsyganenko, N.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Raeder, J.; Toth, G.; Lyon, J.; Merkin, V.; Wiltberger, M.

2017-01-01

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to post processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

Global Volcano Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

2012-04-01

Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

2017-12-01

Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodrum, A. W.

1989-01-01

GRAM series of four-dimensional atmospheric model validated by years of data. GRAM program, still available. More current are Gram 86, which includes atmospheric data from 1986 and runs on DEC VAX, and GRAM 88, which runs on IBM 3084. Program generates altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through atmosphere, and also useful for global circulation and diffusion studies.

The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

2017-12-01

NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

Should precipitation influence dust emission in global dust models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, Gregory

2016-04-01

Soil moisture modulates the threshold shear stress required to initiate aeolian transport and dust emission. Most of the theoretical and laboratory work that has confirmed the impact of soil moisture has appropriately acknowledged that it is the soil moisture of a surface layer a few grain diameters thick that truly controls threshold shear velocity. Global and regional models of dust emission include the effect of soil moisture on transport threshold, but most ignore the fact that only the moisture of the very topmost "active layer" matters. The soil moisture in the active layer can differ greatly from that integrated through the top 2, 5, 10, or 100 cm (surface layers used by various global models) because the top 2 mm of heavy texture soils dries within ~1/2 day while sandy soils dry within less than 2 hours. Thus, in drylands where dust emission occurs, it is likely that this top layer is drier than the underlying soil in the days and weeks after rain. This paper explores, globally, the time between rain events in relation to the time for the active layer to dry and the timing of high wind events. This analysis is carried out using the same coarse reanalyses used in global dust models and is intended to inform the soil moisture controls in these models. The results of this analysis indicate that the timing between events is, in almost all dust-producing areas, significantly longer than the drying time of the active layer, even when considering soil texture differences. Further, the analysis shows that the probability of a high wind event during the period after a rain where the surface is wet is small. Therefore, in coarse global models, there is little reason to include rain-derived soil moisture in the modeling scheme.

Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roubíček, Tomáš

2018-03-01

The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

Atmospheric Sulfur Cycle Simulated in The Global Model GOCART: Model Description and Global Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Rood, Richard B.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Mueller, Jean-Francois; Thompson, Anne M.

2000-01-01

The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the atmospheric sulfur cycle. The model uses the simulated meteorological data from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). Global sulfur budgets from a 6-year simulation for SO2, sulfate, dimethylsulfide (DMS), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) are presented in this paper. In a normal year without major volcanic perturbations, about 20% of the sulfate precursor emission is from natural sources (biogenic and volcanic) and 80% is anthropogenic: the same sources contribute 339% and 67% respectively to the total sulfate burden. A sulfate production efficiency of 0.41 - 0.42 is estimated in the model, an efficiency which is defined as a ratio of the amount oi sulfate produced to the total amount of SO2 emitted and produced in the atmosphere. This value indicates that less than half of the SO2 entering the atmosphere contributes to the sulfate production, the rest being removed by dry and wet depositions. In a simulation for 1990, we estimate a total sulfate production of 39 Tg S /yr with 36% and 64% respectively from in-air and in-cloud oxidation of SO2. We also demonstrate that major volcanic eruptions, such as the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, can significantly change the sulfate formation pathways, distributions, abundance, and lifetime. Comparison with other models shows that the parameterizations for wet removal or wet production of sulfate are the most critical factors in determining the burdens of SO2 and sulfate. Therefore, a priority for future research should be to reduce the large uncertainties associated with the wet physical and chemical processes.

Revising a conceptual model of partnership and sustainability in global health.

PubMed

Upvall, Michele J; Leffers, Jeanne M

2018-05-01

Models to guide global health partnerships are rare in the nursing literature. The Conceptual Model for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health while significant was based on Western perspectives. The purpose of this study was to revise the model to include the voice of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. Grounded theory was used to maintain fidelity with the design in the original model. A purposive sample of 15 participants from a variety of countries in Africa, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and having extensive experience in global health partnerships were interviewed. Skype recordings and in-person interviews were audiotaped using the same questions as the original study. Theoretical coding and a comparison of results with the original study was completed independently by the researchers. The process of global health partnerships was expanded from the original model to include engagement processes and processes for ongoing partnership development. New concepts of Transparency, Expanded World View, and Accompaniment were included as well as three broad themes: Geopolitical Influence, Power differential/Inequities, and Collegial Friendships. The revised conceptual model embodies a more comprehensive model of global health partnerships with representation of nurses from low- and middle-resource countries. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Global and regional ecosystem modeling: comparison of model outputs and field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R. J.; Hibbard, K.

2003-04-01

The Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) Workshops provide a venue for global ecosystem modeling groups to compare model outputs against measurements of net primary productivity (NPP). The objective of EMDI Workshops is to evaluate model performance relative to observations in order to improve confidence in global model projections terrestrial carbon cycling. The questions addressed by EMDI include: How does the simulated NPP compare with the field data across biome and environmental gradients? How sensitive are models to site-specific climate? Does additional mechanistic detail in models result in a better match with field measurements? How useful are the measures of NPP for evaluating model predictions? How well do models represent regional patterns of NPP? Initial EMDI results showed general agreement between model predictions and field measurements but with obvious differences that indicated areas for potential data and model improvement. The effort was built on the development and compilation of complete and consistent databases for model initialization and comparison. Database development improves the data as well as models; however, there is a need to incorporate additional observations and model outputs (LAI, hydrology, etc.) for comprehensive analyses of biogeochemical processes and their relationships to ecosystem structure and function. EMDI initialization and NPP data sets are available from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center http://www.daac.ornl.gov/. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme - Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS); the IGBP-Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling Task Force (GAIM); the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS); and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terrestrial Ecosystem Program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle LLC for the U.S. Department of

Global Adjoint Tomography: Next-Generation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozdag, Ebru; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Lei, Wenjie; Orsvuran, Ridvan; Peter, Daniel; Ruan, Youyi; Smith, James; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen

2017-04-01

The first-generation global adjoint tomography model GLAD-M15 (Bozdag et al. 2016) is the result of 15 conjugate-gradient iterations based on GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of 3D wave propagation and Fréchet kernels. For simplicity, GLAD-M15 was constructed as an elastic model with transverse isotropy confined to the upper mantle. However, Earth's mantle and crust show significant evidence of anisotropy as a result of its composition and deformation. There may be different sources of seismic anisotropy affecting both body and surface waves. As a first attempt, we initially tackle with surface-wave anisotropy and proceed iterations using the same 253 earthquake data set used in GLAD-M15 with an emphasize on upper-mantle. Furthermore, we explore new misfits, such as double-difference measurements (Yuan et al. 2016), to better deal with the possible artifacts of the uneven distribution of seismic stations globally and minimize source uncertainties in structural inversions. We will present our observations with the initial results of azimuthally anisotropic inversions and also discuss the next generation global models with various parametrizations. Meanwhile our goal is to use all available seismic data in imaging. This however requires a solid framework to perform iterative adjoint tomography workflows with big data on supercomputers. We will talk about developments in adjoint tomography workflow from the need of defining new seismic and computational data formats (e.g., ASDF by Krischer et al. 2016, ADIOS by Liu et al. 2011) to developing new pre- and post-processing tools together with experimenting workflow management tools, such as Pegasus (Deelman et al. 2015). All our simulations are performed on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Cray XK7 "Titan" system. Our ultimate aim is to get ready to harness ORNL's next-generation supercomputer "Summit", an IBM with Power-9 CPUs and NVIDIA Volta GPU accelerators, to be ready by 2018 which will enable us to

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Surface Current Skill Assessment of Global and Regional forecast models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.

2016-02-01

The U.S. Coast Guard has been using SAROPS since January 2007 at all fifty of its operational centers to plan search and rescue missions. SAROPS relies on an Environmental Data Server (EDS) that integrates global, national, and regional ocean and meteorological observation and forecast data. The server manages spatial and temporal aggregation of hindcast, nowcast, and forecast data so the SAROPS controller has the best available data for search planning. The EDS harvests a wide range of global and regional forecasts and data, including NOAA NCEP's global HYCOM model (RTOFS), the U.S. Navy's Global HYCOM model, the 5 NOAA NOS Great Lakes models and a suite of other reginal forecasts from NOS and IOOS Regional Associations. The EDS also integrates surface drifter data as the U.S. Coast Guard regularly deploys Self-Locating Datum Marker Buoys (SLDMBs) during SAR cases and a significant set of drifter data has been collected and the archive continues to grow. This data is critically useful during real-time SAR planning, but also represents a valuable scientific dataset for analyzing surface currents. In 2014, a new initiative was started by the U.S. Coast Guard to evaluate the skill of the various models to support the decision making process during search and rescue planning. This analysis falls into 2 categories: historical analysis of drifter tracks and model predictions to provide skill assessment of models in different regions and real-time analysis of models and drifter tracks during a SAR incident. The EDS, using Liu and Wiesberg's (2014) autonomously determines surface skill measurements of the co-located models' simulated surface trajectories versus the actual drift of the SLDMBs (CODE/Davis style surface drifters GPS positioned at 30min intervals). Surface skill measurements are archived in a database and are user retrieval by lat/long/time cubes. This paper will focus on the comparison of models from in the period from 23 August to 21 September 2015. Surface

Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

2017-12-01

Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

2001-01-01

The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

PubMed

Romilly, Peter

2005-07-01

Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2012)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2012-01-01

The purpose of this manual is to enable users of the Global Forest Products Model to: • Install and run the GFPM software • Understand the input data • Change the input data to explore different scenarios • Interpret the output The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products (Buongiorno et al. 2003). The GFPM2012 has data...

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Issues related to incorporating northern peatlands into global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, Steve; Roulet, Nigel; Lawrence, David

Northern peatlands cover ˜3-4 million km2 (˜10% of the land north of 45°N) and contain ˜200-400 Pg carbon (˜10-20% of total global soil carbon), almost entirely as peat (organic soil). Recent developments in global climate models have included incorporation of the terrestrial carbon cycle and representation of several terrestrial ecosystem types and processes in their land surface modules. Peatlands share many general properties with upland, mineral-soil ecosystems, and general ecosystem carbon, water, and energy cycle functions (productivity, decomposition, water infiltration, evapotranspiration, runoff, latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes). However, northern peatlands also have several unique characteristics that will require some rethinking or revising of land surface algorithms in global climate models. Here we review some of these characteristics, deep organic soils, a significant fraction of bryophyte vegetation, shallow water tables, spatial heterogeneity, anaerobic biogeochemistry, and disturbance regimes, in the context of incorporating them into global climate models. With the incorporation of peatlands, global climate models will be able to simulate the fate of northern peatland carbon under climate change, and estimate the magnitude and strength of any climate system feedbacks associated with the dynamics of this large carbon pool.

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Treesearch

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

PubMed

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A.; Martin, Randall V.; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D.; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

2017-01-01

Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the global distribution of NO2 exposure and associated impacts on global health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO2) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n=10,000) demonstrated robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R2 within 11%) where NO2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions but major roads within 100m and satellite-derived NO2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model will be made available and can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO2 monitoring data or models. PMID:28520422

Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

PubMed Central

Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

2014-01-01

Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

PubMed Central

Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

2015-01-01

Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

Rebased Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and observed Global Mean Temperature: constraints and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

One of the benchmarks of global climate models (GCMs) is that their slow, decadal or longer timescale variations in past changes in Global Mean Temperature (GMT) track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other by as much as 3 degrees [2]. Subtracting these offsets, or rebasing, is an integral part of comparisons between observed past GMT and the GMT anomalies generated by ensembles of GCMs. We will formalize how rebasing introduces constraints in how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear. Feedbacks in the different models when expressed through GMT are then to leading order linear. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, given the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters. As a consequence, the GMT timeseries future projections generated by the GCMs may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8, IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-10-01

Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

CONSTABLE: A Global Climate Model for Classroom Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cerveny, Randall S.; And Others

1985-01-01

Described is the global climate model CONSTABLE (Climatic One-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Annual Balance of Latitudinal Energy), which can be used in undergraduate and graduate level climatology courses. Classroom exercises that can be used with the model are also included. (RM)

Tropospheric ozone simulated by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Lin, J.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-12-01

Current global chemical transport models are limited by horizontal resolutions (100-500 km), and they cannot capture small-scale processes affecting tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of GEOS-Chem to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (~ 200 km) and its three nested models (~ 50 km) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68 and reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO and MOZAIC data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5%), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of the nonlinear ozone chemistry, including but not limited to urban-rural contrast. The two

Medium-range Performance of the Global NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Jang, T.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The medium-range performance of the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is investigated. The performance is based on the prediction of the extratropical circulation. The mean square error is expressed by sum of spatial variance of discrepancy between forecasts and observations and the square of the mean error (ME). Thus, it is important to investigate the ME effect in order to understand the model performance. The ME is expressed by the subtraction of an anomaly from forecast difference against the real climatology. It is found that the global model suffers from a severe systematic ME in medium-range forecasts. The systematic ME is dominant in the entire troposphere in all months. Such ME can explain at most 25% of root mean square error. We also compare the extratropical ME distribution with that from other NWP centers. NWP models exhibit similar spatial ME structure each other. It is found that the spatial ME pattern is highly correlated to that of an anomaly, implying that the ME varies with seasons. For example, the correlation coefficient between ME and anomaly ranges from -0.51 to -0.85 by months. The pattern of the extratropical circulation also has a high correlation to an anomaly. The global model has trouble in faithfully simulating extratropical cyclones and blockings in the medium-range forecast. In particular, the model has a hard to simulate an anomalous event in medium-range forecasts. If we choose an anomalous period for a test-bed experiment, we will suffer from a large error due to an anomaly.

The EGM2008 Global Gravitational Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlis, N. K.; Holmes, S. A.; Kenyon, S. C.; Factor, J. K.

2008-12-01

The development of a new Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) to degree 2160 has been completed. This model, designated EGM2008, is the product of the final re-iteration of our modelling and estimation approach. Our multi-year effort has produced several Preliminary Gravitational Models (PGM) of increasingly improved performance. One of these models (PGM2007A) was provided for evaluation to an independent Evaluation Working Group, sponsored by the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). In an effort to address certain shortcomings of PGM2007A, we have considered the feedback that we received from this Working Group. As part of this effort, EGM2008 incorporates an improved version of our 5'x5' global gravity anomaly database and has benefited from the latest GRACE based satellite-only solutions (e.g., ITG- GRACE03S). EGM2008 incorporates an improved ocean-wide set of altimetry-derived gravity anomalies that were estimated using PGM2007B (a variant of PGM2007A) and its associated Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) model as reference models in a "Remove-Compute-Restore" fashion. For the Least Squares Collocation estimation of our final global 5'x5' area-mean gravity anomaly database, we have used consistently PGM2007B as our reference model to degree 2160. We have developed and used a formulation that predicts area-mean gravity anomalies that are effectively band-limited to degree 2160, thereby minimizing aliasing effects during the harmonic analysis process. We have also placed special emphasis on the refinement and "calibration" of the error estimates that accompany our final combination solution EGM2008. We present the main aspects of the model's development and evaluation. This evaluation was accomplished primarily through the comparison of various model derived quantities with independent data and models (e.g., geoid undulations derived from GPS positioning and spirit levelling, astronomical deflections of the vertical, etc.). We will also present comparisons of our

Global Environmental Multiscale model - a platform for integrated environmental predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaminski, Jacek W.; Struzewska, Joanna; Neary, Lori; Dearden, Frank

2017-04-01

The Global Environmental Multiscale model was developed by the Government of Canada as an operational weather prediction model in the mid-1990s. Subsequently, it was used as the host meteorological model for an on-line implementation of air quality chemistry and aerosols from global to the meso-gamma scale. Further model developments led to the vertical extension of the modelling domain to include stratospheric chemistry, aerosols, and formation of polar stratospheric clouds. In parallel, the modelling platform was used for planetary applications where dynamical, radiative transfer and chemical processes in the atmosphere of Mars were successfully simulated. Undoubtedly, the developed modelling platform can be classified as an example capable of the seamless and coupled modelling of the dynamics and chemistry of planetary atmospheres. We will present modelling results for global, regional, and local air quality episodes and the long-term air quality trends. Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere modelling results will be presented in terms of climate change and subsonic aviation emissions modelling. Model results for the atmosphere of Mars will be presented in the context of the 2016 ExoMars mission and the anticipated observations from the NOMAD instrument. Also, we will present plans and the design to extend the GEM model to the F region with further coupling with a magnetospheric model that extends to 15 Re.

Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

2015-04-01

") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

Can global hydrological models reproduce large scale river flood regimes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

2013-04-01

River flooding remains one of the most severe natural hazards. On the one hand, major flood events pose a serious threat to human well-being, causing deaths and considerable economic damage. On the other hand, the periodic occurrence of flood pulses is crucial to maintain the functioning of riverine floodplains and wetlands, and to preserve the ecosystem services the latter provide. In many regions, river floods reveal a distinct seasonality, i.e. they occur at a particular time during the year. This seasonality is related to regionally dominant flood generating processes which can be expressed in river flood types. While in data-rich regions (esp. Europe and North America) the analysis of flood regimes can be based on observed river discharge time series, this data is sparse or lacking in many other regions of the world. This gap of knowledge can be filled by global modeling approaches. However, to date most global modeling studies have focused on mean annual or monthly water availability and their change over time while simulating discharge extremes, both floods and droughts, still remains a challenge for large scale hydrological models. This study will explore the ability of the global hydrological model WaterGAP3 to simulate the large scale patterns of river flood regimes, represented by seasonal pattern and the dominant flood type. WaterGAP3 simulates the global terrestrial water balance on a 5 arc minute spatial grid (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) at a daily time step. The model accounts for human interference on river flow, i.e. water abstraction for various purposes, e.g. irrigation, and flow regulation by large dams and reservoirs. Our analysis will provide insight in the general ability of global hydrological models to reproduce river flood regimes and thus will promote the creation of a global map of river flood regimes to provide a spatially inclusive and comprehensive picture. Understanding present-day flood regimes can support both flood risk

Hydrometeorology as an Inversion Problem: Can River Discharge Observations Improve the Atmosphere by Ensemble Data Assimilation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Yohei; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2018-01-01

We examine the potential of assimilating river discharge observations into the atmosphere by strongly coupled river-atmosphere ensemble data assimilation. The Japan Meteorological Agency's Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric Model (JMA-NHM) is first coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model. Next, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter is used for this coupled model to assimilate the observations of the rainfall-runoff model variables into the JMA-NHM model variables. This system makes it possible to do hydrometeorology backward, i.e., to inversely estimate atmospheric conditions from the information of river flows or a flood on land surfaces. We perform a proof-of-concept Observing System Simulation Experiment, which reveals that the assimilation of river discharge observations into the atmospheric model variables can improve the skill of the short-term severe rainfall forecast.

A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Gildea, Patricia; Vorosmarty, Charles; Mellilo, Jerry M.; Peterson, Bruce J.

1985-01-01

The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

Situation Model Updating in Young and Older Adults: Global versus Incremental Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Bailey, Heather R.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

2015-01-01

Readers construct mental models of situations described by text. Activity in narrative text is dynamic, so readers must frequently update their situation models when dimensions of the situation change. Updating can be incremental, such that a change leads to updating just the dimension that changed, or global, such that the entire model is updated. Here, we asked whether older and young adults make differential use of incremental and global updating. Participants read narratives containing changes in characters and spatial location and responded to recognition probes throughout the texts. Responses were slower when probes followed a change, suggesting that situation models were updated at changes. When either dimension changed, responses to probes for both dimensions were slowed; this provides evidence for global updating. Moreover, older adults showed stronger evidence of global updating than did young adults. One possibility is that older adults perform more global updating to offset reduced ability to manipulate information in working memory. PMID:25938248

Synchronising data sources and filling gaps by global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimentel, Rafael; Crochemore, Louise; Hasan, Abdulghani; Pineda, Luis; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

2017-04-01

The advances in remote sensing in the last decades combined with the creation of different open hydrological databases have generated a very large amount of useful information for global hydrological modelling. Working with this huge number of datasets to set up a global hydrological model can constitute challenges such as multiple data formats and big heterogeneity on spatial and temporal resolutions. Different initiatives have made effort to homogenize some of these data sources, i.e. GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), HYDROSHEDS (SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GLWD (Global Lake and Wetland Database) for runoff, watershed delineation and water bodies respectively. However, not all the related issues are covered or homogenously solved at the global scale and new information is continuously available to complete the current ones. This work presents synchronising efforts to make use of different global data sources needed to set up the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) at the global scale. These data sources included: topography for watershed delineation, gauging stations of river flow, and extention of lakes, flood plains and land cover classes. A new database with approximately 100 000 subbasins, with an average area of 1000 km2, was created. Subbasin delineation was done combining Global Width Database for Large River (GWD-LR), SRTM high-resolution elevation data and a number of forced points of interest (gauging station of river flow, lakes, reservoirs, urban areas, nuclear plants and areas with high risk of flooding). Regarding flow data, the locations of GRDC stations were checked or placed along the river network when necessary, and completed with available information from national water services in data-sparse regions. A screening of doublet stations and associated time series was necessary to efficiently combine the two types of data sources. A total number about 21 000 stations were

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

2013-01-01

A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

2013-09-01

production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

2016-04-01

Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

PubMed

Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

2017-06-20

Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

Vertical resolution of baroclinic modes in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; Griffies, S. M.; Heerdegen, A. P.; Ward, M. L.; Spence, P.; England, M. H.

2017-05-01

Improvements in the horizontal resolution of global ocean models, motivated by the horizontal resolution requirements for specific flow features, has advanced modelling capabilities into the dynamical regime dominated by mesoscale variability. In contrast, the choice of the vertical grid remains a subjective choice, and it is not clear that efforts to improve vertical resolution adequately support their horizontal counterparts. Indeed, considering that the bulk of the vertical ocean dynamics (including convection) are parameterized, it is not immediately obvious what the vertical grid is supposed to resolve. Here, we propose that the primary purpose of the vertical grid in a hydrostatic ocean model is to resolve the vertical structure of horizontal flows, rather than to resolve vertical motion. With this principle we construct vertical grids based on their abilities to represent baroclinic modal structures commensurate with the theoretical capabilities of a given horizontal grid. This approach is designed to ensure that the vertical grids of global ocean models complement (and, importantly, to not undermine) the resolution capabilities of the horizontal grid. We find that for z-coordinate global ocean models, at least 50 well-positioned vertical levels are required to resolve the first baroclinic mode, with an additional 25 levels per subsequent mode. High-resolution ocean-sea ice simulations are used to illustrate some of the dynamical enhancements gained by improving the vertical resolution of a 1/10° global ocean model. These enhancements include substantial increases in the sea surface height variance (∼30% increase south of 40°S), the barotropic and baroclinic eddy kinetic energies (up to 200% increase on and surrounding the Antarctic continental shelf and slopes), and the overturning streamfunction in potential density space (near-tripling of the Antarctic Bottom Water cell at 65°S).

GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

EPA Science Inventory

High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

Implementing microscopic charcoal in a global climate-aerosol model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Lohmann, Ulrike; Brügger, Sandra; Adolf, Carole; Ickes, Luisa

2017-04-01

Information about past fire activity is crucial to validate fire models and to better understand their deficiencies. Several paleofire records exist, among them ice cores and sediments, which preserve fire tracers like levoglucosan, vanillic acid, or charcoal particles. In this work, we implement microscopic charcoal particles (maximum dimension 10-100 μm) into the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM6.3HAM2.3. Since we are not aware of any reliable estimates of microscopic charcoal emissions, we scaled black carbon emissions from GFAS to capture the charcoal fluxes from a calibration dataset. After that, model results were compared with a validation dataset. The coarse model resolution (T63L31; 1.9°x1.9°) impedes the model to capture local variability of charcoal fluxes. However, variability on the global scale is pronounced due to highly-variable fire emissions. In future, we plan to model charcoal fluxes in the past 1-2 centuries using fire emissions provided from fire models. Furthermore, we intend to compare modelled charcoal fluxes from prescribed fire emissions with those calculated by an interactive fire model.

A Parallel Icosahedral, Higher Order Discontinuous Galerkin, Global Shallow Water Model: Global Ocean Tides and Aquaplanet Benchmarks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehipour, H.; Stuhne, G.; Peltier, W. R.

2012-12-01

The development of models of the ocean tides with higher resolution near the coastlines and courser mesh offshore, has been required due to the significant impacts of coastline configuration and bathymetry (associated with sea level rise) on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents, not only under present conditions but also in the deep past [Griffiths and Peltier GRL 2008, Griffiths and Peltier AMS 2009, Hill et al. JGR 2011]. A global tidal model with enhanced resolution at the poles has been developed by Griffiths and Peltier [2008, 2009], which, although capable of highly resolving polar ocean tides , is based upon a standard structured Arakawa C grid and hence is not capable of resolving coastlines locally. Furthermore the use of a nested modelling approach, although it may enable local spatial refinement [Hill et al. 2011], nevertheless suffers from its inherent dependence on the availability of a global tidal model with necessarily low spatial resolution to provide the open boundary conditions required for the local high resolution model. On the other hand, an unstructured triangulation of the global domain provides a standalone framework that may be employed to study highly resolved regions without relying on secondary models. The first step in the development of the structure we are employing was described in Stuhne and Peltier [Ocean Modeling, 2009]. In further extending this modelling structure we are employing a new discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization of the governing equations in order to provide very high order of accuracy while also ensuring that momentum transport is locally conserved [Giraldo et al. JCP 2002]. After validating the 2D shallow water model with several test suites appropriate to aquaplanets [Williamson et al. JCP 1992, Galewsky et al. Tellus 2004, Nair and Lauritzen JCP 2010], the governing equations are extended to include the influence of internal tide drag in the deep ocean as well as the drag in shallow marginal seas

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the

Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2011-12-01

The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

DOE PAGES

Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; ...

2014-12-31

Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmentalmore » effects.« less

A source-specific model for lossless compression of global Earth data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kess, Barbara Lynne

A Source Specific Model for Global Earth Data (SSM-GED) is a lossless compression method for large images that captures global redundancy in the data and achieves a significant improvement over CALIC and DCXT-BT/CARP, two leading lossless compression schemes. The Global Land 1-Km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, which contains 662 Megabytes (MB) per band, is an example of a large data set that requires decompression of regions of the data. For this reason, SSM-GED compresses the AVHRR data as a collection of subwindows. This approach defines the statistical parameters for the model prior to compression. Unlike universal models that assume no a priori knowledge of the data, SSM-GED captures global redundancy that exists among all of the subwindows of data. The overlap in parameters among subwindows of data enables SSM-GED to improve the compression rate by increasing the number of parameters and maintaining a small model cost for each subwindow of data. This lossless compression method is applicable to other large volumes of image data such as video.

Stochastic Modeling and Global Warming Trend Extraction For Ocean Acoustic Travel Times.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-06

consideration and that these models can not currently be relied upon by themselves to predict global warming . Experimental data is most certainly needed, not...only to measure global warming itself, but to help improve the ocean model themselves. (AN)

Using Global Plate Velocity Boundary Conditions for Embedded Regional Geodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramon Gomez, Jorge; Morgan, Jason; Perez-Gussinye, Marta

2015-04-01

The treatment of far-field boundary conditions is one of the most poorly resolved issues for regional modeling of geodynamic processes. In viscous flow, the choice of far-field boundary conditions often strongly shapes the large-scale structure of a geosimulation. The mantle velocity field along the sidewalls and base of a modeling region is typically much more poorly known than the geometry of past global motions of the surface plates as constrained by global plate motion reconstructions. For regional rifting models it has become routine to apply highly simplified 'plate spreading' or 'uniform rifting' boundary conditions to a 3-D model that limits its ability to simulate the geodynamic evolution of a specific rifted margin. One way researchers are exploring the sensitivity of regional models to uncertain boundary conditions is to use a nested modeling approach in which a global model is used to determine a large-scale flow pattern that is imposed as a constraint along the boundaries of the region to be modeled. Here we explore the utility of a different approach that takes advantage of the ability of finite element models to use unstructured meshes than can embed much higher resolution sub-regions within a spherical global mesh. In our initial project to validate this approach, we create a global spherical mesh in which a higher resolution sub-region is created around the nascent South Atlantic Rifting Margin. Global Plate motion BCs and plate boundaries are applied for the time of the onset of rifting, continuing through several 10s of Ma of rifting. Thermal, compositional, and melt-related buoyancy forces are only non-zero within the high-resolution subregion, elsewhere, motions are constrained by surface plate-motion constraints. The total number of unknowns needed to solve an embedded regional model with this approach is less than 1/3 larger than that needed for a structured-mesh solution on a Cartesian or spherical cap sub-regional mesh. Here we illustrate

A terrestrial biosphere model optimized to atmospheric CO2 concentration and above ground woody biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, M.; Ito, A.; Maksyutov, S. S.

2013-12-01

This study documents an optimization of a prognostic biosphere model (VISIT; Vegetation Integrative Similator for Trace gases) to observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration and above ground woody biomass by using a Bayesian inversion method combined with an atmospheric tracer transport model (NIES-TM; National Institute for Environmental Studies / Frontier Research Center for Global Change (NIES/FRCGC) off-line global atmospheric tracer transport model). The assimilated observations include 74 station records of surface atmospheric CO2 concentration and aggregated grid data sets of above ground woody biomass (AGB) and net primary productivity (NPP) over the globe. Both the biosphere model and the atmospheric transport model are used at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid with temporal resolutions of a day and an hour, respectively. The atmospheric transport model simulates atmospheric CO2 concentration with nine vertical levels using daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange rate (NEE) from the biosphere model, oceanic CO2 flux, and fossil fuel emission inventory. The models are driven by meteorological data from JRA-25 (Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis) and JCDAS (JMA Climate Data Assimilation System). Statistically optimum physiological parameters in the biosphere model are found by iterative minimization of the corresponding Bayesian cost function. We select thirteen physiological parameter with high sensitivity to NEE, NPP, and AGB for the minimization. Given the optimized physiological parameters, the model shows error reductions in seasonal variation of the CO2 concentrations especially in the northern hemisphere due to abundant observation stations, while errors remain at a few stations that are located in coastal coastal area and stations in the southern hemisphere. The model also produces moderate estimates of the mean magnitudes and probability distributions in AGB and NPP for each biome. However, the model fails in the simulation of the terrestrial

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

2017-02-01

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions < 500 m deep, but this increases to ˜ 70 % for a 1/72° model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art.We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without

Modelling of Criegee Intermediates using the 3-D global model, STOCHEM-CRI and investigating their global impacts on Secondary Organic Aerosol formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. Anwar H.; Cooke, Michael; Utembe, Steve; Archibald, Alexander; Derwent, Richard; Jenkin, Mike; Lyons, Kyle; Kent, Adam; Percival, Carl; Shallcross, Dudley E.

2016-04-01

Gas phase reactions of ozone with unsaturated compounds form stabilized Criegee intermediates (sCI) which play an important role in controlling the budgets of many tropospheric species including OH, organic acids and secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Recently sCI has been proposed to play a significant role in atmospheric sulfate and nitrate chemistry by forming sulfuric acid (promoter of aerosol formation) and nitrate radical (a powerful oxidizing agent). sCI can also undergo association reactions with water, alcohols, and carboxylic acids to form hydroperoxides and with aldehydes and ketones to form secondary ozonides. The products from these reactions are low volatility compounds which can contribute to the formation of SOA. The importance of plant emitted alkenes (isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes) in the production of SOA through sCI formation have already been investigated in laboratory studies. However, the SOA formation from these reactions are absent in current global models. Thus, the formation of SOA has been incorporated in the global model, STOCHEM-CRI, a 3-D global chemistry transport model and the role of CI chemistry in controlling atmospheric composition and climate, and the influence of water vapor has been discussed in the study.

Phytomonas: A non-pathogenic trypanosomatid model for functional expression of proteins.

PubMed

Miranda, Mariana R; Sayé, Melisa; Reigada, Chantal; Carrillo, Carolina; Pereira, Claudio A

2015-10-01

Phytomonas are protozoan parasites from the Trypanosomatidae family which infect a wide variety of plants. Herein, Phytomonas Jma was tested as a model for functional expression of heterologous proteins. Green fluorescent protein expression was evaluated in Phytomonas and compared with Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease. Phytomonas was able to express GFP at levels similar to T. cruzi although the transgenic selection time was higher. It was possible to establish an efficient transfection and selection protocol for protein expression. These results demonstrate that Phytomonas can be a good model for functional expression of proteins from other trypanosomatids, presenting the advantage of being completely safe for humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model-Derived Global Aerosol Climatology for MISR Analysis ("Clim-Likely" Data Set)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-19

Model-Derived Global Aerosol Climatology for MISR Analysis Multi-angle Imaging ... (MISR) monthly, global 1° x 1° "Clim-Likely" aerosol climatology, derived from 'typical-year' aerosol transport model results are available for individual 1° x 1° boxes or ...

A variable resolution nonhydrostatic global atmospheric semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pouliot, George Antoine

2000-10-01

The objective of this project is to develop a variable-resolution finite difference adiabatic global nonhydrostatic semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) model based on the fully compressible nonhydrostatic atmospheric equations. To achieve this goal, a three-dimensional variable resolution dynamical core was developed and tested. The main characteristics of the dynamical core can be summarized as follows: Spherical coordinates were used in a global domain. A hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic switch was incorporated into the dynamical equations to use the fully compressible atmospheric equations. A generalized horizontal variable resolution grid was developed and incorporated into the model. For a variable resolution grid, in contrast to a uniform resolution grid, the order of accuracy of finite difference approximations is formally lost but remains close to the order of accuracy associated with the uniform resolution grid provided the grid stretching is not too significant. The SISL numerical scheme was implemented for the fully compressible set of equations. In addition, the generalized minimum residual (GMRES) method with restart and preconditioner was used to solve the three-dimensional elliptic equation derived from the discretized system of equations. The three-dimensional momentum equation was integrated in vector-form to incorporate the metric terms in the calculations of the trajectories. Using global re-analysis data for a specific test case, the model was compared to similar SISL models previously developed. Reasonable agreement between the model and the other independently developed models was obtained. The Held-Suarez test for dynamical cores was used for a long integration and the model was successfully integrated for up to 1200 days. Idealized topography was used to test the variable resolution component of the model. Nonhydrostatic effects were simulated at grid spacings of 400 meters with idealized topography and uniform flow. Using a high

Research highlights of the global modeling and simulation branch for 1986-1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Wayman (Editor); Susskind, Joel (Editor); Pfaendtner, James (Editor); Randall, David (Editor); Atlas, Robert (Editor)

1988-01-01

This document provides a summary of the research conducted in the Global Modeling and Simulation Branch and highlights the most significant accomplishments in 1986 to 1987. The Branch has been the focal point for global weather and climate prediction research in the Laboratory for Atmospheres through the retrieval and use of satellite data, the development of global models and data assimilation techniques, the simulation of future observing systems, and the performance of atmospheric diagnostic studies.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2008-05-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

Implications of the lack of global dimming and brightening in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2017-12-01

The global temperature trend of the last half-century is widely believed to be the result of two opposing effects; aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the radiative effect of increasing GHG concentrations is well-constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, in part because observational constraints on the latter are lacking. However, long-term surface measurements of downward solar radiation (DSRS), an often-used proxy for aerosol radiative forcing, are available worldwide from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). We compare DSRS changes from 1,300 GEBA stations to those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, sampled only when/where observations are available. The observed DSRS shows a strong early (1964-1990) downward trend, followed by a weaker regional trend reversal. Regional emission data for aerosols and aerosol precursors suggest that the culprit for both features was changes to the atmospheric aerosol loading. In contrast, the models show weak or negligible DSRS trends, suggesting a too weak aerosol forcing. We present sensitivity studies with a single model (CESM1.2) that aim to simultaneously reproduce the observed trends in DSRS and surface temperature.

Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

1983-01-01

A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2014-01-01

Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

Estimation of wetland methane emissions in a biogeochemical model integrated in CESM: sensitivity analysis and comparison against surface and atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Mahowald, N. M.; Hess, P. G.; Yavitt, J. B.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.; Jauhiainen, J.; Fuka, D. R.

2012-12-01

Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al. 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations and thus we do not use CLM4 simulated inundated area. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993-2004 were 256 Tg CH4 y-1 (including the soil sink). Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 y-1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 y-1. Our sensitivity studies show a large range (150-346 Tg CH4 y-1) in predicted global methane emissions. In order to evaluate our methane emissions on the regional and global scales against atmospheric measurements, we conducted simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) forced with our baseline simulation of wetland and rice paddy emissions along with other methane sources (e.g. anthropogenic, fire, and termite emissions) and compared model simulations against measured atmospheric concentrations

GLOBATO: An enhanced global relief model at 30 arc-seconds resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Leary, V.; Amante, C.

2017-12-01

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), first developed a digital bathymetric and elevation model, ETOPO5, from publicly available data in 1993. For nearly 25 years, NCEI's ETOPO family of global relief models have supported research at a planetary scale, including tsunami forecasting, ocean circulation modeling, visualization of the seafloor, understanding geological phenomena, and aiding the development of other global and regional elevation models. GLOBATO (GLObal BAThymetry and TOpography) is now the most detailed version released by NCEI with a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds and succeeds ETOPO1 with the inclusion of several new or updated data-sets for the seafloor as well as land areas. GLOBATO is a compilation of data derived from models of satellite measurements, ship depth soundings, and multibeam surveys, as well as regional models developed for Greenland and Antarctica. These data were converted from different formats, resolutions, spatial distributions, and projections into a single global model using GDAL v2.2 and MB-System v5.5. As with previous NCEI models, GLOBATO is available in two formats, "bedrock elevation" (measured as the base of major ice sheets) and "ice surface elevation" (measured as the surface of major ice sheets) which provides comprehensive topographic and bathymetric coverage between +- 90 degrees latitude and +- 180 degrees longitude. Adhering to best practices, GLOBATO, all related digital products, and any supporting documentation are available online through the NCEI data portal. These new, high resolution models will better support the variety of research ETOPO1 has made possible.

Global distribution and sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumont, E.; Harrison, J. A.; Kroeze, C.; Bakker, E. J.; Seitzinger, S. P.

2005-12-01

Here we describe, test, and apply a spatially explicit, global model for predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by rivers to coastal waters (NEWS-DIN). NEWS-DIN was developed as part of an internally consistent suite of global nutrient export models. Modeled and measured DIN export values agree well (calibration R2 = 0.79), and NEWS-DIN is relatively free of bias. NEWS-DIN predicts: DIN yields ranging from 0.0004 to 5217 kg N km-2 yr-1 with the highest DIN yields occurring in Europe and South East Asia; global DIN export to coastal waters of 25 Tg N yr-1, with 16 Tg N yr-1 from anthropogenic sources; biological N2 fixation is the dominant source of exported DIN; and globally, and on every continent except Africa, N fertilizer is the largest anthropogenic source of DIN export to coastal waters.

Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohkawara, Nozomu

2006-12-01

A long term global atmospheric reanalysis Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) which covers from 1979 to 2004 was completed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical assimilation and forecast system. This is the first long term reanalysis undertaken in Asia. JMA's latest numerical assimilation system, and observational data collected as much as possible, were used in JRA-25 to generate a consistent and high quality reanalysis dataset to contribute to climate research and operational work. One purpose of JRA-25 is to enhance to a high quality the analysis in the Asian region. 6-hourly data assimilation cycles were performed and produced 6-hourly atmospheric analysis and forecast fields with various kinds of physical variables. The global model used in JRA-25 has a spectral resolution of T106 (equivalent to a horizontal grid size of around 120km) and 40 vertical layers with the top level at 0.4hPa. For observational data, a great deal of satellite data was used in addition to conventional surface and upper air data. Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data retrieved from geostationary satellites, brightness temperature (TBB) data from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), precipitable water retrieved from radiance of microwave radiometer from orbital satellites and some other satellite data were assimilated with 3-dimensional variational method (3DVAR). Many advantages have been found in the JRA-25 reanalysis. Firstly, forecast 6-hour global total precipitation in JRA-25 performs well, distribution and amount are properly represented both in space and time. JRA-25 has the best performance compared to other reanalysis with respect to time series of global precipitation over many years, with few unrealistic variations caused by degraded quality of satellite data due to volcanic eruptions. Secondly, JRA-25 is the first reanalysis which assimilated wind profiles surrounding tropical cyclones retrieved from historical best track information; tropical cyclones

Global Urban Mapping and Modeling for Sustainable Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Li, X.; Asrar, G.; Yu, S.; Smith, S.; Eom, J.; Imhoff, M. L.

2016-12-01

In the past several decades, the world has experienced fast urbanization, and this trend is expected to continue for decades to come. Urbanization, one of the major land cover and land use changes (LCLUC), is becoming increasingly important in global environmental changes, such as urban heat island (UHI) growth and vegetation phenology change. Better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably require reliable science-based information on spatiotemporal changes in urban extent and their environmental impacts. In this study, we developed a globally consistent 20-year urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization from the nighttime lights remote sensing data, and projected future urban expansion in the 21st century by employing an integrated modeling framework (Zhou et al. 2014, Zhou et al. 2015). We then evaluated the impacts of urbanization on building energy use and vegetation phenology that affect both ecosystem services and human health. We extended the modeling capability of building energy use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with consideration of UHI effects by coupling the remote sensing based urbanization modeling and explored the impact of UHI on building energy use. We also investigated the impact of urbanization on vegetation phenology by using an improved phenology detection algorithm. The derived spatiotemporal information on historical and potential future urbanization and its implications in building energy use and vegetation phenology will be of great value in sustainable urban design and development for building energy use and human health (e.g., pollen allergy), especially when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, C. D. Elvidge, K. Zhao, A. Thomson & M. Imhoff (2014) A cluster-based method to map urban area from DMSP/OLS nightlights. Remote Sensing of Environment, 147, 173-185. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, K. Zhao, M. Imhoff, A

Developing a global crop model for maize, wheat, and soybean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Sacks, W. J.

2008-12-01

Recently, the world food supply has faced a crisis due to increasing food prices driven by rising food demand, increasing fuel prices, poor harvests due to climate factors, and the use of crops such as maize and soybean to produce biofuel. In order to assess the future of global food availability, there is a need for understanding the factors underlying food production. Farmer management practices along with climatic conditions are the main elements directly influencing crop yield. As a consequence, estimations of future world food production require the use of a global crop model that simulates reasonably the effect of both climate and management practices on yield. Only a few global crop models have been developed to date, and currently none of them represent management factors adequately, principally due to the lack of spatially explicit datasets at the global scale. In this study, we present a global crop model designed for maize, wheat, and soybean production that incorporates planting and harvest decisions, along with irrigation options based on newly available data. The crop model is built on a simple water-balance algorithm based on the Penman- Monteith equation combined with a light use efficiency approach that calculates biomass production under non-nutrient-limiting conditions. We used a world crop calendar dataset to develop statistical relationships between climate variables and planting dates for different regions of the world. Development stages are defined based on total growing degree days required to reach the beginning of each phase. Irrigation options are considered in regions where water stress occurs and irrigation infrastructures exist. We use a global dataset on irrigated areas for each crop type. The quantity of water applied is then calculated in order to avoid water stress but with an upper threshold derived from total irrigation withdrawal quantity estimated by the global water use model WaterGAP 2. Our analysis will present the model

Linking Global and Regional Models to Simulate U.S. Air Quality in the Year 2050

EPA Science Inventory

The potential impact of global climate change on future air quality in the United States is investigated with global and regional-scale models. Regional climate model scenarios are developed by dynamically downscaling the outputs from a global chemistry and climate model and are...

Global CLEWs model - A novel application of OSeMOSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avgerinopoulos, Georgios; Pereira Ramos, Eunice; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Over the past years, studies that analyse Nexus issues from a holistic point of view and not energy, land or water separately have been gaining momentum. This project aims at giving insights into global issues through the application and the analysis of a global scale OSeMOSYS model. The latter -which is based on a fully open and amendable code- has been used successfully in the latest years as it has been the producing fully accessible energy models suitable for capacity building and policy making suggestions. This study develops a CLEWs (climate, land, energy and water) model with the objective of interrogating global challenges (e.g. increasing food demand) and international trade features, with policy priorities on food security, resource efficiency, low-carbon energy and climate change mitigation, water availability and vulnerability to water stress and floods, water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It will for instance assess (i) the impact of water constraints on food security and human development (clean water for human use; industrial and energy water demands), as well as (ii) the impact of climate change on aggravating or relieving water problems.

Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodegom, P. V.

2015-12-01

Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

Global model of zenith tropospheric delay proposed based on EOF analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Langlang; Chen, Peng; Wei, Erhu; Li, Qinzheng

2017-07-01

Tropospheric delay is one of the main error budgets in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. Many empirical correction models have been developed to compensate this delay, and models which do not require meteorological parameters have received the most attention. This study established a global troposphere zenith total delay (ZTD) model, called Global Empirical Orthogonal Function Troposphere (GEOFT), based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF, also known as geographically weighted PCAs) analysis method and the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere data from 2012 to 2015. The results showed that ZTD variation could be well represented by the characteristics of the EOF base function Ek and associated coefficients Pk. Here, E1 mainly signifies the equatorial anomaly; E2 represents north-south asymmetry, and E3 and E4 reflects regional variation. Moreover, P1 mainly reflects annual and semiannual variation components; P2 and P3 mainly contains annual variation components, and P4 displays semiannual variation components. We validated the proposed GEOFT model using tropospheric delay data of GGOS ZTD grid data and the tropospheric product of the International GNSS Service (IGS) over the year 2016. The results showed that GEOFT model has high accuracy with bias and RMS of -0.3 and 3.9 cm, respectively, with respect to the GGOS ZTD data, and of -0.8 and 4.1 cm, respectively, with respect to the global IGS tropospheric product. The accuracy of GEOFT demonstrating that the use of the EOF analysis method to characterize ZTD variation is reasonable.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

PubMed

MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

2018-02-01

The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Performance Analysis of a Ring Current Model Driven by Global MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, A.; Keller, K. A.; Fok, M.; Hesse, M.; Gombosi, T.

2003-12-01

Effectively modeling the high-energy particles in Earth's inner magnetosphere has the potential to improve safety in both manned and unmanned spacecraft. One model of this environment is the Fok Ring Current Model. This model can utilize as inputs both solar wind data, and empirical ionospheric electric field and magnetic field models. Alternatively, we have a procedure which allows the model to be driven by outputs from the BATS-R-US global MHD model. By using in-situ satellite data we will compare the predictive capability of this model in its original stand-alone form, to that of the model when driven by the BATS-R-US Global Magnetosphere Model. As a basis for comparison we use the April 2002 and May 2003 storms where suitable LANL geosynchronous data are available.

How well do we succeed in modeling the global soil carbon pools?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viskari, T.; Liski, J.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial carbon pools are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle. Carbon from vegetation is deposited to the soil, which in turn releases carbon dioxide back to the atmosphere through heterotrophic respiration. The resulting soil carbon storage in the largest on land. While there are continuous efforts to improve the modeling of global soil carbon and how this storage is affected by climate change, this research requires still a more reliable baseline on how well the models estimate the current global soil carbon pools. Especially such comparisons are important for identifying the major challenges in the current soil carbon models. Here, we used the Yasso soil carbon model to create a global soil carbon map at a 0.5 degree resolution based on the available climate, land cover and vegetation productivity information. Yasso model describes the soil carbon cycling by pools that represent the breaking down of dead organic matter. We compared the model results to a measurement based projection of global soil carbon pools, and we examined the differences and spatial correlations between the two maps. In our findings, the modelled predictions captured the overall soil carbon distributions within 5 kgCm-2 on 63 % of the land area. The spatial distributions fit each other as well. The average soil carbon is smaller with the Yasso prediction ( 8.5 kg m-2) than with the measurement map ( 10 kg m-2) and there are notable areas, such as Siberia and Southern North America, where there are large differences between the model predictions and measurements. These results not only encourage future development of soil carbon models, but also highlight problem areas to focus and improve upon.

Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2004-01-01

This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

A New Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreemer, C.; Blewitt, G.; Klein, E. C.; Shen, Z.; Wang, M.; Estey, L.; Wier, S.

2013-12-01

As part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort to improve global seismic hazard models, we present a new global geodetic strain rate model. This model (GSRM v. 2) is a vast improvement on the previous model from 2004 (v. 1.2). The model is still based on a finite-element type approach and has deforming cells in between the assumed rigid plates. The new model contains ~144,700 cells of 0.25° by 0.2° dimension. We redefined the geometries of the deforming zones based on the definitions of Bird (2003) and Chamot-Rooke and Rabaute (2006). We made some adjustments to the grid geometry at places where seismicity and/or GPS velocities suggested either the presence of deforming areas or a rigid block where those previous studies did not. GSRM v.2 includes 50 plates and blocks, including many not considered by Bird (2003). The new GSRM model is based on over 20,700 horizontal geodetic velocities at over 17,000 unique locations. The GPS velocity field consists of a 1) Over 6500 velocities derived by the University of Nevada, Reno, for CGPS stations for which >2.5 years of RINEX data are available until April 2013, 2) ~1200 velocities for China from a new analysis of all data from the Crustal Movement Network of China (CMONOC), and 3) about 13,000 velocities from 212 studies published in the literature or made otherwise available to us. Velocities from all studies were combined into the same reference frame by a 6-parameter transformation using velocities at collocated stations. We model co-seismic jumps while estimating velocities, ignore periods of post-seismic deformation, and exclude time-series that reflect magmatic and anthropogenic activity. GPS velocities were used to estimate angular velocities for 36 of the 50 rigid plates and blocks (the rest being taken from the literature), and these were used as boundary conditions in the strain rate calculations. For the strain rate calculations we used the method of Haines and Holt. In order to fit the data equally well

[Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

PubMed

Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

2014-08-01

Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2012-10-01

Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.

2015-12-01

Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric M.

2017-01-01

We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

A model for upscaling global partnerships and building nurse and midwifery capacity.

PubMed

Spies, L A; Garner, S L; Faucher, M A; Hastings-Tolsma, M; Riley, C; Millenbruch, J; Prater, L; Conroy, S F

2017-09-01

To provide a unique model for use in guiding global collaboration and policy to upscale nursing and midwifery partnerships. Nurses and midwives across nations need skills reaching beyond the bedside and unit level in today's complex, global, multifaceted healthcare milieu. Thoughtful consideration, research and concomitant development of models to guide appropriate upscaling of nurse and midwifery capacity within and between nations are needed. This article explores an integrated global approach to upscaling nurse and midwifery capacity using examples of partnerships between nursing and midwifery programmes across multiple continents. Global nurse and midwifery capacity is effectively being developed using a myriad of approaches. A new model is presented to illustrate supports, strategies and activities to achieve intermediate and long-term goals for capacity building through strong and sustainable global partnerships. Development of global skills can focus the nurse and midwife to influence policy-level decisions. Human resource planning that can impact countrywide provision of health care begins in the preservice setting for both nurses and midwives. A global experience can be a value-added component to the well-rounded education of future nurses. Education during preparation for entry into practice is a strategic way to develop a worldview. Incorporating reflective practice can build skills and shape attitudes to prepare the new nurse to be comfortable as a global healthcare provider. An expanded world view is the springboard to more robust and informed involvement and inclusion in policy-level discussions. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

Evaluation of GOCE-based Global Geoid Models in Finnish Territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, Timo; Bilker-Koivula, Mirjam

2015-04-01

The gravity satellite mission GOCE made its final observations in the fall of 2013. By then it had exceeded its expected lifespan of one year with more than three additional years. Thus, the mission collected more data from the Earth's gravitational field than expected, and more comprehensive global geoid models have been derived ever since. The GOCE High-level Processing Facility (HPF) by ESA has published GOCE global gravity field models annually. We compared all of the 12 HPF-models as well as 3 additional GOCE, 11 GRACE and 6 combined GOCE+GRACE models with GPS-levelling data and gravity observations in Finland. The most accurate models were compared against high resolution global geoid models EGM96 and EGM2008. The models were evaluated up to three different degrees and order: 150 (the common maximum for the GRACE models), 240 (the common maximum for the GOCE models) and maximum. When coefficients up to degree and order 150 are used, the results of the GOCE models are comparable with the results of the latest GRACE models. Generally, all of the latest GOCE and GOCE+GRACE models give standard deviations of the height anomaly differences of around 15 cm and of gravity anomaly differences of around 10 mgal over Finland. The best solutions were not always achieved with the highest maximum degree and order of the satellite gravity field models, since the highest coefficients (above 240) may be less accurately determined. Over Finland, the latest GOCE and GOCE+GRACE models give similar results as the high resolution models EGM96 and EGM2008 when coefficients up to degree and order 240 are used. This is mainly due to the high resolution terrestrial data available in the area of Finland, which was used in the high resolution models.

Creating Flexible and Sustainable Work Models for Academic Obstetrician-Gynecologists Engaged in Global Health Work.

PubMed

Molina, Rose; Boatin, Adeline; Farid, Huma; Luckett, Rebecca; Neo, Dayna; Ricciotti, Hope; Scott, Jennifer

2017-10-01

To describe various work models for obstetrics and gynecology global health faculty affiliated with academic medical centers and to identify barriers and opportunities for pursuing global health work. A mixed-methods study was conducted in 2016 among obstetrics and gynecology faculty and leaders from seven academic medical institutions in Boston, Massachusetts. Global health faculty members were invited to complete an online survey about their work models and to participate in semistructured interviews about barriers and facilitators of these models. Department chairs and residency directors were asked to participate in interviews. The survey response rate among faculty was 65.6% (21/32), of which 76.2% (16/21) completed an interview. Five department leaders (45.5% [5/11]) participated in an interview. Faculty described a range of work models with varied time and compensation, but only one third reported contracted time for global health work. The most common barriers to global health work were financial constraints, time limitations, lack of mentorship, need for specialized training, and maintenance of clinical skills. Career satisfaction, creating value for the obstetrics and gynecology department, and work model flexibility were the most important facilitators of sustainable global health careers. The study identified challenges and opportunities to creating flexible and sustainable work models for academic obstetrics and gynecology clinicians engaged in global health work. Additional research and innovation are needed to identify work models that allow for sustainable careers in global women's health. There are opportunities to create professional standards and models for academic global health work in the obstetrics and gynecology specialty.

The distribution of soil phosphorus for global biogeochemical modeling

DOE PAGES

Yang, Xiaojuan; Post, Wilfred M.; Thornton, Peter E.; ...

2013-04-16

We discuss that phosphorus (P) is a major element required for biological activity in terrestrial ecosystems. Although the total P content in most soils can be large, only a small fraction is available or in an organic form for biological utilization because it is bound either in incompletely weathered mineral particles, adsorbed on mineral surfaces, or, over the time of soil formation, made unavailable by secondary mineral formation (occluded). In order to adequately represent phosphorus availability in global biogeochemistry–climate models, a representation of the amount and form of P in soils globally is required. We develop an approach that buildsmore » on existing knowledge of soil P processes and databases of parent material and soil P measurements to provide spatially explicit estimates of different forms of naturally occurring soil P on the global scale. We assembled data on the various forms of phosphorus in soils globally, chronosequence information, and several global spatial databases to develop a map of total soil P and the distribution among mineral bound, labile, organic, occluded, and secondary P forms in soils globally. The amount of P, to 50cm soil depth, in soil labile, organic, occluded, and secondary pools is 3.6 ± 3, 8.6 ± 6, 12.2 ± 8, and 3.2 ± 2 Pg P (Petagrams of P, 1 Pg = 1 × 10 15g) respectively. The amount in soil mineral particles to the same depth is estimated at 13.0 ± 8 Pg P for a global soil total of 40.6 ± 18 Pg P. The large uncertainty in our estimates reflects our limited understanding of the processes controlling soil P transformations during pedogenesis and a deficiency in the number of soil P measurements. In spite of the large uncertainty, the estimated global spatial variation and distribution of different soil P forms presented in this study will be useful for global biogeochemistry models that include P as a limiting element in biological production by providing initial estimates of the available soil P for

Global modeling of soil evaporation efficiency for a chosen soil type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiana Stefan, Vivien; Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Merlin, Olivier; Chanzy, André

2016-04-01

One way of reproducing the dynamics of a system is by deriving a set of differential, difference or discrete equations directly from observational time series. A method for obtaining such a system is the global modeling technique [1]. The approach is here applied to the dynamics of soil evaporative efficiency (SEE), defined as the ratio of actual to potential evaporation. SEE is an interesting variable to study since it is directly linked to soil evaporation (LE) which plays an important role in the water cycle and since it can be easily derived from satellite measurements. One goal of the present work is to get a semi-empirical parameter that could account for the variety of the SEE dynamical behaviors resulting from different soil properties. Before trying to obtain such a semi-empirical parameter with the global modeling technique, it is first necessary to prove that this technique can be applied to the dynamics of SEE without any a priori information. The global modeling technique is thus applied here to a synthetic series of SEE, reconstructed from the TEC (Transfert Eau Chaleur) model [2]. It is found that an autonomous chaotic model can be retrieved for the dynamics of SEE. The obtained model is four-dimensional and exhibits a complex behavior. The comparison of the original and the model phase portraits shows a very good consistency that proves that the original dynamical behavior is well described by the model. To evaluate the model accuracy, the forecasting error growth is estimated. To get a robust estimate of this error growth, the forecasting error is computed for prediction horizons of 0 to 9 hours, starting from different initial conditions and statistics of the error growth are thus performed. Results show that, for a maximum error level of 40% of the signal variance, the horizon of predictability is close to 3 hours, approximately one third of the diurnal part of day. These results are interesting for various reasons. To the best of our knowledge

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Guannan; Ye, Ming; Wu, Jianfeng; Wu, Jichun

2017-12-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we develop a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.

Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2014 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2014 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2010 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2014) describe how to use the model for simulation....

Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai  Zhu

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2016 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2013 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2015) describe how to use the model for...

Differential scanning calorimetry study and computer modeling of β ⇒ α phase transformation in a Ti-6Al-4V alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinov, S.; Guo, Z.; Sha, W.; Wilson, A.

2001-04-01

The relationship between heat-treatment parameters and microstructure in titanium alloys has so far been mainly studied empirically, using characterization techniques such as microscopy. Calculation and modeling of the kinetics of phase transformation have not yet been widely used for these alloys. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) has been widely used for the study of a variety of phase transformations. There has been much work done on the calculation and modeling of the kinetics of phase transformations for different systems based on the results from DSC study. In the present work, the kinetics of the β ⇒ α transformation in a Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy were studied using DSC, at continuous cooling conditions with constant cooling rates of 5 °C, 10 °C, 20 °C, 30 °C, 40 °C, and 50 °C/min. The results from calorimetry were then used to trace and model the transformation kinetics in continuous cooling conditions. Based on suitably interpreted DSC results, continuous cooling-transformation (CCT) diagrams were calculated with lines of isotransformed fraction. The kinetics of transformation were modeled using the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) theory and by applying the “concept of additivity.” The JMA kinetic parameters were derived. Good agreement between the calculated and experimental transformed fractions is demonstrated. Using the derived kinetic parameters, the β ⇒ α transformation in a Ti-6Al-4V alloy can be described for any cooling path and condition. An interpretation of the results from the point of view of activation energy for nucleation is also presented.

Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2015-04-01

Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

Base flow calibration in a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

2006-12-01

Base flow constitutes an important water resource in many parts of the world. Its provenance and yield over time are governed by the storage capacity of local aquifers and the internal drainage paths, which are difficult to capture at the global scale. To represent the spatial and temporal variability in base flow adequately in a distributed global model at 0.5 degree resolution, we resorted to the conceptual model of aquifer storage of Kraaijenhoff- van de Leur (1958) that yields the reservoir coefficient for a linear groundwater store. This model was parameterised using global information on drainage density, climatology and lithology. Initial estimates of aquifer thickness, permeability and specific porosity from literature were linked to the latter two categories and calibrated to low flow data by means of simulated annealing so as to conserve the ordinal information contained by them. The observations used stem from the RivDis dataset of monthly discharge. From this dataset 324 stations were selected with at least 10 years of observations in the period 1958-1991 and an areal coverage of at least 10 cells of 0.5 degree. The dataset was split between basins into a calibration and validation set whilst preserving a representative distribution of lithology types and climate zones. Optimisation involved minimising the absolute differences between the simulated base flow and the lowest 10% of the observed monthly discharge. Subsequently, the reliability of the calibrated parameters was tested by reversing the calibration and validation sets.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

A New Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreemer, C. W.; Klein, E. C.; Blewitt, G.; Shen, Z.; Wang, M.; Chamot-Rooke, N. R.; Rabaute, A.

2012-12-01

As part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort to improve global seismic hazard models, we present a new global geodetic strain rate model. This model (GSRM v. 2) is a vast improvement on the previous model from 2004 (v. 1.2). The model is still based on a finite-element type approach and has deforming cells in between the assumed rigid plates. While v.1.2 contained ~25,000 deforming cells of 0.6° by 0.5° dimension, the new models contains >136,000 cells of 0.25° by 0.2° dimension. We redefined the geometries of the deforming zones based on the definitions of Bird (2003) and Chamot-Rooke and Rabaute (2006). We made some adjustments to the grid geometry at places where seismicity and/or GPS velocities suggested the presence of deforming areas where those previous studies did not. As a result, some plates/blocks identified by Bird (2003) we assumed to deform, and the total number of plates and blocks in GSRM v.2 is 38 (including the Bering block, which Bird (2003) did not consider). GSRM v.1.2 was based on ~5,200 GPS velocities, taken from 86 studies. The new model is based on ~17,000 GPS velocities, taken from 170 studies. The GPS velocity field consists of a 1) ~4900 velocities derived by us for CPS stations publicly available RINEX data and >3.5 years of data, 2) ~1200 velocities for China from a new analysis of all CMONOC data, and 3) velocities published in the literature or made otherwise available to us. All studies were combined into the same reference frame by a 6-parameter transformation using velocities at collocated stations. Because the goal of the project is to model the interseismic strain rate field, we model co-seismic jumps while estimating velocities, ignore periods of post-seismic deformation, and exclude time-series that reflect magmatic and anthropogenic activity. GPS velocities were used to estimate angular velocities for most of the 38 rigid plates and blocks (the rest being taken from the literature), and these were used as boundary

Evaluation of Global Photosynthesis and BVOC Emission Covariance with Climate in NASA ModelE2-Y

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, N.

2012-12-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a measure of the total amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere every year to fuel photosynthesis, is the largest global carbon flux. GPP is vital for human welfare as the basis for food and fiber, and provides the crucial ecosystem service of reducing the accumulation of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere. Land plants emit a significant fraction of the assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in the form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprene is the dominant BVOC emission with an estimated global source of 200-660 TgC/yr. Global monoterpene emission estimates range from 30-130 TgC/yr. BVOC photochemical oxidation exerts a profound impact on the distribution and variability of the short-lived climate forcers: ozone, biogenic secondary organic aerosol and methane. Here, we apply multiple observational datasets from a suite of platforms to evaluate an updated global chemistry-climate model that is coupled to a new vegetation biophysics scheme incorporating photosynthesis-dependent BVOC emissions (NASA ModelE2-Y). A fixed vegetation structure dataset based on 8 plant functional types and prescribed phenology including crop planting and harvesting gives GPP of 128 PgC/yr and a global isoprene source of 200TgC/yr. The model GPP captures 85% of the annual average zonal mean variability in a FLUXNET-derived global dataset that was generated by data orientated diagnostic upscaling. We assess model BVOC emission climatology against a comprehensive database of campaign-average above canopy flux measurements and surface concentrations of isoprene and monoterpene collected between 1995-2010 across a wide range of ecosystem types, regions and seasons (> 25 flux estimates; > 22 surface concentration values). We evaluate the diurnal, seasonal and interannual integrity of the model BVOC variability against 9 sites for isoprene and 4 sites for monoterpene. The model captures ~60% of the variability in the time

Validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza.

PubMed

Li, Xinhai; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-08-01

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model's performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account.

Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

2007-11-01

Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Raymond J.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5R(sub J). The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by C(sub max)(Delta)t/(Delta)x less than 1 where C(sub max) is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is C(sub w) and the flow speed is C(sub f), C(sub max) = C(sub w) + C(sub f). Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

Global multi-dimensional modeling of ionospheric electron density using GNSS measurements and IRI model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh, M.; Schuh, H.; Schmidt, M. G.

2012-12-01

In the last decades Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has turned into a promising tool for probing the ionosphere. The classical input data for developing Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) is obtained from the dual-frequency GNSS observations. Simultaneous observations of GNSS code or carrier phase at each frequency is used to form a geometric-free linear combination which contains only the ionospheric refraction term and the differential inter-frequency hardware delays. To relate the ionospheric observable to the electron density, a model is used that represents an altitude-dependent distribution of the electron density. This study aims at developing a global multi-dimensional model of the electron density using simulated GNSS observations from about 150 International GNSS Service (IGS) ground stations. Due to the fact that IGS stations are in-homogenously distributed around the world and the accuracy and reliability of the developed models are considerably lower in the area not well covered with IGS ground stations, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model has been used as a background model. The correction term is estimated by applying spherical harmonics expansion to the GNSS ionospheric observable. Within this study this observable is related to the electron density using different functions for the bottom-side and top-side ionosphere. The bottom-side ionosphere is represented by an alpha-Chapman function and the top-side ionosphere is represented using the newly proposed Vary-Chap function.aximum electron density, IRI background model (elec/m3), day 202 - 2010, 0 UT eight of maximum electron density, IRI background model (km), day 202 - 2010, 0 UT

A Biome map for Modelling Global Mid-Pliocene Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzmann, U.; Haywood, A. M.

2006-12-01

The importance of vegetation-climate feedbacks was highlighted by several paleo-climate modelling exercises but their role as a boundary condition in Tertiary modelling has not been fully recognised or explored. Several paleo-vegetation datasets and maps have been produced for specific time slabs or regions for the Tertiary, but the vegetation classifications that have been used differ, thus making meaningful comparisons difficult. In order to facilitate further investigations into Tertiary climate and environmental change we are presently implementing the comprehensive GIS database TEVIS (Tertiary Environment and Vegetation Information System). TEVIS integrates marine and terrestrial vegetation data, taken from fossil pollen, leaf or wood, into an internally consistent classification scheme to produce for different time slabs global Tertiary Biome and Mega- Biome maps (Harrison & Prentice, 2003). In the frame of our ongoing 5-year programme we present a first global vegetation map for the mid-Pliocene time slab, a period of sustained global warmth. Data were synthesised from the PRISM data set (Thompson and Fleming 1996) after translating them to the Biome classification scheme and from new literature. The outcomes of the Biome map are compared with modelling results using an advanced numerical general circulation model (HadAM3) and the BIOME 4 vegetation model. Our combined proxy data and modelling approach will provide new palaeoclimate datasets to test models that are used to predict future climate change, and provide a more rigorous picture of climate and environmental changes during the Neogene.

Modeling global Hammond landform regions from 250-m elevation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karagulle, Deniz; Frye, Charlie; Sayre, Roger; Breyer, Sean P.; Aniello, Peter; Vaughan, Randy; Wright, Dawn J.

2017-01-01

In 1964, E.H. Hammond proposed criteria for classifying and mapping physiographic regions of the United States. Hammond produced a map entitled “Classes of Land Surface Form in the Forty-Eight States, USA”, which is regarded as a pioneering and rigorous treatment of regional physiography. Several researchers automated Hammond?s model in GIS. However, these were local or regional in application, and resulted in inadequate characterization of tablelands. We used a global 250 m DEM to produce a new characterization of global Hammond landform regions. The improved algorithm we developed for the regional landform modeling: (1) incorporated a profile parameter for the delineation of tablelands; (2) accommodated negative elevation data values; (3) allowed neighborhood analysis window (NAW) size to vary between parameters; (4) more accurately bounded plains regions; and (5) mapped landform regions as opposed to discrete landform features. The new global Hammond landform regions product builds on an existing global Hammond landform features product developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, which, while globally comprehensive, did not include tablelands, used a fixed NAW size, and essentially classified pixels rather than regions. Our algorithm also permits the disaggregation of “mixed” Hammond types (e.g. plains with high mountains) into their component parts.

Global quantum discord and quantum phase transition in XY model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Si-Yuan; Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190; Zhang, Yu-Ran, E-mail: yrzhang@iphy.ac.cn

We study the relationship between the behavior of global quantum correlations and quantum phase transitions in XY model. We find that the two kinds of phase transitions in the studied model can be characterized by the features of global quantum discord (GQD) and the corresponding quantum correlations. We demonstrate that the maximum of the sum of all the nearest neighbor bipartite GQDs is effective and accurate for signaling the Ising quantum phase transition, in contrast, the sudden change of GQD is very suitable for characterizing another phase transition in the XY model. This may shed lights on the study ofmore » properties of quantum correlations in different quantum phases.« less

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-14

distribution is unlimited. TOWARD SEAMLESS WEATHER- CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A GLOBAL CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii at...Project Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 1 May 2012 - 30 September 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE TOWARD SEAMLESS WEATHER- CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH...A GLOBAL CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER N000141210450 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER ONR Marine Meteorology Program 6

The 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, WenBin; Han, Jiancheng

2016-04-01

We provide an updated 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which is determined based on the shallow layer method (Shen 2006). We choose an inner surface S below the EGM2008 geoid, and the layer bounded by the inner surface S and the Earth's geographical surface E is referred to as the shallow layer. The Earth's geographical surface E is determined by the digital topographic model DTM2006.0 combining with the DNSC2008 mean sea surface. We determine the 3D shallow layer model (SLM) using the refined crust density model CRUST1.0-5min, which is an improved 5'×5' density model of the CRUST1.0 with taking into account the corrections of the areas covered by ice sheets and the land-ocean crossing regions. Based on the SLM and the gravity field EGM2008 defined outside the Earth's geographical surface E, we determine the gravity field EGM2008S defined in the region outside the inner surface S, extending the gravity field's definition domain from the domain outside E to the domain outside S. Based on the geodetic equation W(P)=W0, where W0 is the geopotential constant on the geoid, we determine a 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which provides both the 5'×5' grid values and spherical harmonic coefficient expressions. Comparisons show that the GGM2016 fits the globally available GPS/leveling points better than the EGM2008 geoid. This study is supported by National 973 Project China (grant Nos. 2013CB733301 and 2013CB733305), NSFC (grant Nos. 41174011, 41210006, 41429401, 41128003, 41021061).

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2013-01-01

MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

A Decision Model for Supporting Task Allocation Processes in Global Software Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamersdorf, Ansgar; Münch, Jürgen; Rombach, Dieter

Today, software-intensive systems are increasingly being developed in a globally distributed way. However, besides its benefit, global development also bears a set of risks and problems. One critical factor for successful project management of distributed software development is the allocation of tasks to sites, as this is assumed to have a major influence on the benefits and risks. We introduce a model that aims at improving management processes in globally distributed projects by giving decision support for task allocation that systematically regards multiple criteria. The criteria and causal relationships were identified in a literature study and refined in a qualitative interview study. The model uses existing approaches from distributed systems and statistical modeling. The article gives an overview of the problem and related work, introduces the empirical and theoretical foundations of the model, and shows the use of the model in an example scenario.

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Stephens, Philip; Wilson, Brian D.; Akopian, Vardan; Komjathy, Attila; Lijima, Byron A.

2013-01-01

ISOGAME is designed and developed to assess quantitatively the impact of new observation systems on the capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. With ISOGAME, one can perform observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs). A typical OSSE using ISOGAME would involve: (1) simulating various ionospheric conditions on global scales; (2) simulating ionospheric measurements made from a constellation of low-Earth-orbiters (LEOs), particularly Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation data, and from ground-based global GNSS networks; (3) conducting ionospheric data assimilation experiments with the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM); and (4) analyzing modeling results with visualization tools. ISOGAME can provide quantitative assessment of the accuracy of assimilative modeling with the interested observation system. Other observation systems besides those based on GNSS are also possible to analyze. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the GAIM, including a 4D first-principles ionospheric model and data assimilation modules, an Internal Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model that has been developed by international ionospheric research communities, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software. The core GAIM model used in ISOGAME is based on the GAIM++ code (written in C++) that includes a new high-fidelity geomagnetic field representation (multi-dipole). New visualization tools and analysis algorithms for the OSSEs are now part of ISOGAME.

Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task. PMID:21867520

The impact of Surface Wind Velocity Data Assimilation on the Predictability of Plume Advection in the Lower Troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiyama, Thomas; Kajino, Mizuo; Kunii, Masaru

2017-04-01

the #1 dataset and the #2 dataset including land-surface wind observations measured at more than 200 stations in the model domain. The meteorological boundary conditions for both the experiments were imported from the JMA operational global NWP model results. The modeled radioactive cesium concentrations were examined for plume arrival timing at each observatory comparing with the hourly-measured "suspended particulate matter" filter tape's cesium concentrations retrieved by Tsuruta et al. at more than 40 observatories. The averaged difference of the plume arrival times at 40 observatories between the observational reality and the STD experiment was 82.0 minutes; at this time, the forecast period was 13 hours on average. Meanwhile, The averaged difference of the TEST experiment was 72.8 minutes, which was smaller than that of the STD experiment with a statistical significance of 99.2 %. In summary, the land-surface wind velocity data assimilation improves the predictability of plume advection in the lower troposphere at least in the case of wintertime air pollution over complex terrain. We need more investigation into the data assimilation impact of land-surface weather observations on the predictability of pollutant dispersion especially in the planetary boundary layer.

Modelling carbon and water fluxes at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balzarolo, M.; Balsamo, G.; Barbu, A.; Boussetta, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Chevallier, F.; de Vries, J.; Kullmann, L.; Lafont, S.; Maignan, F.; Papale, D.; Poulter, B.

2012-04-01

Modelling and predicting seasonal and inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes play an important role in understanding processes and interactions between plant-atmosphere and climate. Testing the model's capability to simulate fluxes across and within the ecosystems against eddy covariance data is essential. Thanks to the existing eddy covariance (EC) networks (e.g FLUXNET), where CO2 and water exchanges are continuously measured, it is now possible to verify the model's goodness at global scale. This paper reports the outcomes of the verification activities of the Land Carbon Core Information Service (LC-CIS) of the Geoland2 European project. The three used land surface models are C-TESSEL from ECMWF, SURFEX from CNRM and ORCHIDEE from IPSL. These models differ in their hypotheses used to describe processes and the interactions between ecological compartments (plant, soil and atmosphere) and climate and environmental conditions. Results of the verification and model benchmarking are here presented. Surface fluxes of the models are verified against FLUXNET sites representing main worldwide Plant Functional Types (PFTs: forest, grassland and cropland). The quality and accuracy of the EC data is verified using the CarboEurope database methodology. Modelled carbon and water fluxes magnitude, daily and annual cycles, inter-annual anomalies are verified against eddy covariance data using robust statistical analysis (r, RMSE, E, BE). We also verify the performance of the models in predicting the functional responses of Gross Primary Production (GPP) and RE (Ecosystem Respiration) to the environmental driving variables (i.e. temperature, soil water content and radiation) by comparing the functional relationships obtained from the outputs and observed data. Obtained results suggest some ways of improving such models for global carbon modelling.

Global modeling of thermospheric airglow in the far ultraviolet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Stanley C.

2017-07-01

The Global Airglow (GLOW) model has been updated and extended to calculate thermospheric emissions in the far ultraviolet, including sources from daytime photoelectron-driven processes, nighttime recombination radiation, and auroral excitation. It can be run using inputs from empirical models of the neutral atmosphere and ionosphere or from numerical general circulation models of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. It uses a solar flux module, photoelectron generation routine, and the Nagy-Banks two-stream electron transport algorithm to simultaneously handle energetic electron distributions from photon and auroral electron sources. It contains an ion-neutral chemistry module that calculates excited and ionized species densities and the resulting airglow volume emission rates. This paper describes the inputs, algorithms, and code structure of the model and demonstrates example outputs for daytime and auroral cases. Simulations of far ultraviolet emissions by the atomic oxygen doublet at 135.6 nm and the molecular nitrogen Lyman-Birge-Hopfield bands, as viewed from geostationary orbit, are shown, and model calculations are compared to limb-scan observations by the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the TIMED satellite. The GLOW model code is provided to the community through an open-source academic research license.

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models.

PubMed

Parzen, M; Lipsitz, S R

1999-06-01

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.

Providing Access to a Diverse Set of Global Reanalysis Dataset Collections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, D.; Worley, S. J.

2015-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA, http://rda.ucar.edu) provides open access to a variety of global reanalysis dataset collections to support atmospheric and related sciences research worldwide. These include products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NCAR.All RDA hosted reanalysis collections are freely accessible to registered users through a variety of methods. Standard access methods include traditional browser and scripted HTTP file download. Enhanced downloads are available through the Globus GridFTP "fire and forget" data transfer service, which provides an efficient, reliable, and preferred alternative to traditional HTTP-based methods. For those that favor interoperable access using compatible tools, the Unidata THREDDS Data server provides remote access to complete reanalysis collections by virtual dataset aggregation "files". Finally, users can request data subsets and format conversions to be prepared for them through web interface form requests or web service API batch requests. This approach uses NCAR HPC and central file systems to effectively prepare products from the high-resolution and very large reanalyses archives. The presentation will include a detailed inventory of all RDA reanalysis dataset collection holdings, and highlight access capabilities to these collections through use case examples.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

2016-08-01

This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.-Y.; Lin, J.-T.; Chen, J.; Hu, L.

2015-09-01

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the global ozone (O3) chemistry, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb in annual average afternoon O3. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

DOE PAGES

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing; ...

2017-12-27

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we developmore » a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.« less

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we developmore » a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.« less

Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

2013-12-01

In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

Modeling global scene factors in attention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torralba, Antonio

2003-07-01

Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

Cooperative global security programs modeling & simulation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Briand, Daniel

2010-05-01

The national laboratories global security programs implement sustainable technical solutions for cooperative nonproliferation, arms control, and physical security systems worldwide. To help in the development and execution of these programs, a wide range of analytical tools are used to model, for example, synthetic tactical environments for assessing infrastructure protection initiatives and tactics, systematic approaches for prioritizing nuclear and biological threat reduction opportunities worldwide, and nuclear fuel cycle enrichment and spent fuel management for nuclear power countries. This presentation will describe how these models are used in analyses to support the Obama Administration's agenda and bilateral/multinational treaties, and ultimately, to reducemore » weapons of mass destruction and terrorism threats through international technical cooperation.« less

Modeling Key Malaria Drugs' Impact on Global Health: A Reason to Invest in the Global Health Impact Index.

PubMed

Hassoun, Nicole

2016-05-04

Millions of people cannot access good quality essential medicines they need for some of the world's worst diseases like malaria. The World Health Organization estimates that, in 2013, 198 million people became sick with malaria and 584,000 people died of the disease, while the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation estimates that there were 164,929,872 cases of malaria in 2013 and 854,568 deaths in 2013. There are many attempts to model different aspects of the global burden of tropical diseases like malaria, but it is also important to measure success in averting malaria-related death and disability. This perspective proposes investing in a systematic effort to measure the benefits of health interventions for malaria along the lines of a model embodied in the Global Health Impact Index (global-health-impact.org). © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Validation of a Global Ionospheric Data Assimilation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Hajj, G.; Wang, C.; Pi, X.; Rosen, I.

2003-04-01

As the number of ground and space-based receivers tracking the global positioning system (GPS) steadily increases, and the quantity of other ionospheric remote sensing data such as measurements of airglow also increases, it is becoming possible to monitor changes in the ionosphere continuously and on a global scale with unprecedented accuracy and reliability. However, in order to make effective use of such a large volume of data for both ionospheric specification and forecast, it is important to develop a data- driven ionospheric model that is consistent with the underlying physical principles governing ionosphere dynamics. A fully 3-dimensional Global Assimilative Ionosphere Model (GAIM) is currently being developed by a joint University of Southern California and Jet Propulsion Laboratory team. GAIM uses a first-principles ionospheric physics model (“forward” model) and Kalman filtering and 4DVAR techniques to not only solve for densities on a 3D grid but also estimate key driving forces which are inputs to the theoretical model, such as the ExB drift, neutral wind, and production terms. The driving forces are estimated using an “adjoint equation” to compute the required partial derivatives, thereby greatly reducing the computational demands compared to other techniques. For estimation of the grid densities, GAIM uses an approximate Kalman filter implementation in which the portions of the covariance matrix that are retained (the off-diagonal elements) are determined by assumed but physical correlation lengths in the ionosphere. By selecting how sparse or full the covariance matrix is over repeated Kalman filter runs, one can fully investigate the tradeoff between estimation accuracy and computational speed. Although GAIM will ultimately use multiple datatypes and many data sources, we have performed a first study of quantitative accuracy by ingesting GPS-derived TEC observations from ground and space-based receivers and nighttime UV radiance data from

An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

PubMed

Kang, Sun-Joo

2016-01-01

This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

Magnetospheric Substorm Evolution in the Magnetotail: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Dorelli, J.; Rastaetter, L.

2003-12-01

Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at CCMC. We perform simulations of magnetotail dynamics using global MHD models residing at CCMC. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. We will analyze the effects of spatial resolution in the plasma sheet on modeled expansion phase evolution, maximum energy stored in the tail, and details of magnetotail reconnection. We will pay special attention to current sheet thinning and multiple plasmoid formation.

Fractional Gaussian model in global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, V. P.; Srivastava, R. P.

2009-12-01

Earth system is inherently non-linear and it can be characterized well if we incorporate no-linearity in the formulation and solution of the problem. General tool often used for characterization of the earth system is inversion. Traditionally inverse problems are solved using least-square based inversion by linearizing the formulation. The initial model in such inversion schemes is often assumed to follow posterior Gaussian probability distribution. It is now well established that most of the physical properties of the earth follow power law (fractal distribution). Thus, the selection of initial model based on power law probability distribution will provide more realistic solution. We present a new method which can draw samples of posterior probability density function very efficiently using fractal based statistics. The application of the method has been demonstrated to invert band limited seismic data with well control. We used fractal based probability density function which uses mean, variance and Hurst coefficient of the model space to draw initial model. Further this initial model is used in global optimization inversion scheme. Inversion results using initial models generated by our method gives high resolution estimates of the model parameters than the hitherto used gradient based liner inversion method.

Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

2014-03-01

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza

PubMed Central

Li, Xinhai; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian; Zhang, Zhibin

2011-01-01

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account. PMID:21909295

Challenges in global modeling of wetland extent and wetland methane dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahni, R.; Melton, J. R.; Wania, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zürcher, S.; Joos, F.

2012-12-01

Global wetlands are known to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. Modelling of global wetland extent and wetland CH4 dynamics remains a challenge. Here we present results from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) that investigated our present ability to simulate large scale wetland characteristics (e.g. wetland type, water table, carbon cycling, gas transport, etc.) and corresponding CH4 emissions. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The WETCHIMP experiments showed that while models disagree in spatial and temporal patterns of simulated CH4 emissions and wetland areal extent, they all do agree on a strong positive response to increased carbon dioxide concentrations. WETCHIMP made clear that we currently lack observation data sets that are adequate to evaluate model CH4 soil-atmosphere fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells. Thus there are substantial parameter and structural uncertainties in large-scale CH4 emission models. As an illustration of the implications of CH4 emissions on climate we show results of the LPX-Bern model, as one of the models participating in WETCHIMP. LPX-Bern is forced with observed 20th century climate and climate output from an ensemble of five comprehensive climate models for a low and a high emission scenario till 2100 AD. In the high emission scenario increased substrate availability for methanogenesis due to a strong stimulation of net primary productivity, and faster soil turnover leads to an amplification of CH4 emissions with the sharpest increase in peatlands (+180% compared to present). Combined with prescribed anthropogenic CH4 emissions, simulated atmospheric CH4 concentration reaches ~4500 ppbv by 2100 AD, about 800 ppbv more than in

Global River Water Temperature Modelling at Hyper-Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical and biological aquatic processes. The influence of changing water temperatures is not only felt locally, but also has regional and downstream impacts. Sectors that might be affected by sudden or gradual changes in the water temperature are: energy production, industry and recreation. Although it is very important to have detailed information on this environmental variable, high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. Here we present a novel hyper-resolution water temperature dataset at the global scale. We developed the 1-D energy routing model WARM, to simulate river temperature for the period 1980-2014 at 10 km and 50 km resolution. The WARM model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding and formation of ice, therefore enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. The water temperature simulations have been validated against 358 river monitoring stations globally for the period 1980 to 2014. The results indicate the increase in resolution significantly improves the simulation performance with a decrease in the water temperature RMSE from 3.5°C to 3.0°C and an increase in the mean correlation of the daily discharge simulations, from R=0.4 to 0.6. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.22°C per decade between 1960-2014, with increasing trends towards the end of the simulations period. Strong increasing trends in maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62°C per decade) and minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45°C per decade). Finally, we show the impact of major heatwaves and drought events on the water temperature and water availability. The high resolution not only improves the model performance; it also positively impacts the relevancy of the simulation for local and regional scale studies and impact assessments. This new global water temperature dataset could help to

Global stability of a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-10-01

In this paper, mathematical analysis is carried out for a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases, such as cholera, giardia, and rotavirus. The model accounts for both person-to-person and water-to-person transmission routes. Global stability of the equilibria is studied. In terms of the basic reproduction number R0, we prove that, if R0⩽1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the infection always disappears; whereas if R0>1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable for the corresponding fast-slow system. Numerical simulations verify our theoretical results and present that the decay rate of waterborne pathogens has a significant impact on the epidemic growth rate. Also, we observe numerically that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for the whole system. This statement indicates that the present method need to be improved by other techniques.

Assessing the vertical structure of baroclinic tidal currents in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timko, Patrick; Arbic, Brian; Scott, Robert

2010-05-01

Tidal forcing plays an important role in many aspects of oceanography. Mixing, transport of particulates and internal wave generation are just three examples of local phenomena that may depend on the strength of local tidal currents. Advances in satellite altimetry have made an assessment of the global barotropic tide possible. However, the vertical structure of the tide may only be observed by deployment of instruments throughout the water column. Typically these observations are conducted at pre-determined depths based upon the interest of the observer. The high cost of such observations often limits both the number and the length of the observations resulting in a limit to our knowledge of the vertical structure of tidal currents. One way to expand our insight into the baroclinic structure of the ocean is through the use of numerical models. We compare the vertical structure of the global baroclinic tidal velocities in 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) to a global database of current meter records. The model output is a subset of a 5 year global simulation that resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides and baroclinic tides using 32 vertical layers. The density structure within the simulation is both vertically and horizontally non-uniform. In addition to buoyancy forcing the model is forced by astronomical tides and winds. We estimate the dominant semi-diurnal (M2), and diurnal (K1) tidal constituents of the model data using classical harmonic analysis. In regions where current meter record coverage is adequate, the model skill in replicating the vertical structure of the dominant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal currents is assessed based upon the strength, orientation and phase of the tidal ellipses. We also present a global estimate of the baroclinic tidal energy at fixed depths estimated from the model output.

Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Takanobu; Goto, Yusuke; Terazono, Takahiro; Wakao, Shinji; Oozeki, Takashi

PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

1999-01-01

Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics.

PubMed

Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

2016-11-14

Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F(). To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F(), which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

2016-11-01

Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) . To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) , which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

Evaluating soil carbon in global climate models: benchmarking, future projections, and model drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd-Brown, K. E.; Randerson, J. T.; Post, W. M.; Allison, S. D.

2012-12-01

The carbon cycle plays a critical role in how the climate responds to anthropogenic carbon dioxide. To evaluate how well Earth system models (ESMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) represent the carbon cycle, we examined predictions of current soil carbon stocks from the historical simulation. We compared the soil and litter carbon pools from 17 ESMs with data on soil carbon stocks from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). We also examined soil carbon predictions for 2100 from 16 ESMs from the rcp85 (highest radiative forcing) simulation to investigate the effects of climate change on soil carbon stocks. In both analyses, we used a reduced complexity model to separate the effects of variation in model drivers from the effects of model parameters on soil carbon predictions. Drivers included NPP, soil temperature, and soil moisture, and the reduced complexity model represented one pool of soil carbon as a function of these drivers. The ESMs predicted global soil carbon totals of 500 to 2980 Pg-C, compared to 1260 Pg-C in the HWSD. This 5-fold variation in predicted soil stocks was a consequence of a 3.4-fold variation in NPP inputs and 3.8-fold variability in mean global turnover times. None of the ESMs correlated well with the global distribution of soil carbon in the HWSD (Pearson's correlation <0.40, RMSE 9-22 kg m-2). On a biome level there was a broad range of agreement between the ESMs and the HWSD. Some models predicted HWSD biome totals well (R2=0.91) while others did not (R2=0.23). All of the ESM terrestrial decomposition models are structurally similar with outputs that were well described by a reduced complexity model that included NPP and soil temperature (R2 of 0.73-0.93). However, MPI-ESM-LR outputs showed only a moderate fit to this model (R2=0.51), and CanESM2 outputs were better described by a reduced model that included soil moisture (R2=0.74), We also found a broad range in soil carbon responses to climate change

Team Investment and Longitudinal Relationships: An Innovative Global Health Education Model.

PubMed

Myers, Kimberly R; Fredrick, N Benjamin

2017-12-01

Increasing student interest in global health has resulted in medical schools offering more global health opportunities. However, concerns have been raised, particularly about one-time, short-term experiences, including lack of follow-through for students and perpetuation of unintentional messages of global health heroism, neocolonialism, and disregard for existing systems and communities of care. Medical schools must develop global health programs that address these issues. The Global Health Scholars Program (GHSP) was created in 2008-2009 at Penn State College of Medicine. This four-year program is based on values of team investment and longitudinal relationships and uses the service-learning framework of preparation, service, and reflection. Teams of approximately five students, with faculty oversight, participate in two separate monthlong trips abroad to the same host community in years 1 and 4, and in campus- and Web-based activities in years 2 and 3. As of December 2016, 191 students have been accepted into the GHSP. Since inception, applications have grown by 475% and program sites have expanded from one to seven sites on four continents. The response from students has been positive, but logistical challenges persist in sustaining team investment and maintaining longitudinal relationships between student teams and host communities. Formal methods of assessment should be used to compare the GHSP model with more traditional approaches to global health education. Other medical schools with similar aims can adapt the GHSP model to expand their global health programming.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Global radiation maps and their modulation by clouds. - An assessment of limitations and deficiencies in global modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, Stefan; Stubenrauch, Claudia; Raschke, Erhard

2010-05-01

Satellite sensed solar and infrared broadband radiation maps at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) usually serve as reference and constrains to global modelling. Complimentary radiation maps at the surface are less certain, as they require accurate knowledge about atmospheric and environmental properties. Despite differences among multi-decadal data-projects of ISCCP, the SRB and the CERES, their diversity is small in comparison to efforts in global modelling. Based on simulations for the IPCC fourth assessment, clear biases on a regional and seasonal basis are identified and illustrate deficiencies in the representation of clouds. These deficiencies are explored in the context of available cloud data from passive and active remote sensing from space.

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

Quantifying the causes of differences in tropospheric OH within global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicely, Julie M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy; Anderson, Daniel C.; Arnold, Steve R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Mao, Jingqiu; Monks, Sarah A.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Tilmes, Simone; Turquety, Solene

2017-02-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary daytime oxidant in the troposphere and provides the main loss mechanism for many pollutants and greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4). Global mean tropospheric OH differs by as much as 80% among various global models, for reasons that are not well understood. We use neural networks (NNs), trained using archived output from eight chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP), to quantify the factors responsible for differences in tropospheric OH and resulting CH4 lifetime (τCH4) between these models. Annual average τCH4, for loss by OH only, ranges from 8.0 to 11.6 years for the eight POLMIP CTMs. The factors driving these differences were quantified by inputting 3-D chemical fields from one CTM into the trained NN of another CTM. Across all CTMs, the largest mean differences in τCH4 (ΔτCH4) result from variations in chemical mechanisms (ΔτCH4 = 0.46 years), the photolysis frequency (J) of O3 → O(1D) (0.31 years), local O3 (0.30 years), and CO (0.23 years). The ΔτCH4 due to CTM differences in NOx (NO + NO2) is relatively low (0.17 years), although large regional variation in OH between the CTMs is attributed to NOx. Differences in isoprene and J(NO2) have negligible overall effect on globally averaged tropospheric OH, although the extent of OH variations due to each factor depends on the model being examined. This study demonstrates that NNs can serve as a useful tool for quantifying why tropospheric OH varies between global models, provided that essential chemical fields are archived.

Quantifying the Causes of Differences in Tropospheric OH Within Global Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicely, Julie M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy; Anderson, Daniel C.; Arnold, Steve R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Kinnison, Douglas E.;

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1992-01-01

Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface were obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (greater than 80/sq Wm) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux ((less than 40/sq Wm) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover.The technique used relies on General Circulation Model simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture, and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of longwave radiation.

LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

2018-04-01

This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

Distribution of Attenuation Factor Beneath the Japanese Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujihara, S.; Hashimoto, M.

2001-12-01

In this research, we tried to estimate the distribution of attenuation factor of seismic wave, which is closely related to the above-mentioned inelastic parameters. Here the velocity records of events from the Freesia network and the J-array network were used. The events were selected based on the following criteria: (a) events with JMA magnitudes from 3.8 to 5.0 and hypocentral distance from 20km to 200km, (b) events with JMA magnitudes from 5.1 to 6.8 and hypocentral distance from 200km to 10_?, (c) Depth of all events is greater than 30km with S/N ratio greater than 2. After correcting the instrument response, P-wave spectra were estimated. Following Boatwright (1991), the observed spectra were modeled by the theoretical spectra by assuming the following relation; Aij(f) = Si(f) Pij(f) Cj(f). Brune's model (1970) was assumed for the source model. Aij(f), Si(f), Pij(f), and Cj(f) are defined as observed spectrum, source spectrum, propagation effect, and site effect, respectively. Frequency dependence of attenuation factor was not assumed here. The global standard velocity model (AK135) is used for ray tracing. Ellipticity corrections and station elevation corrections are also done. The block sizes are 50km by 50km laterally and increase vertically. As the results of analysis, the attenuation structure beneath Japanese Islands up to the depth of 180km was reconstructed with relatively good resolution. The low Q distribution is clearly seen in central Hokkaido, western Hokkaido, Tohoku region, Hida region, Izu region, and southern Kyushu. The relatively sharp decrease in Q associated with asthenosphere can be seen below the depth of 70km.

Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shangguan, Wei; Hengl, Tomislav; Mendes de Jesus, Jorge; Yuan, Hua; Dai, Yongjiu

2017-03-01

Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 1,30,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surface reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forest and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250 m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myriokefalitakis, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Sciare, J.; Nenes, A.; Kawamura, K.; Segers, A.; Kanakidou, M.

2011-06-01

Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous-phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol). Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 1.16 ± 0.14, r2 = 0.36, N = 114) and suggest that aqueous-phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-cloud and less than 5 % is produced in aerosol water. About 62 % of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 30 % by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical, 4 % by in-cloud reaction with nitrate radical and 4 % by dry deposition. The in-cloud global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 21-37 Tg yr-1 with almost 79 % originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.2-0.3 Tg, i.e. 0.05-0.1 Tg-C that is about 5-9 % of model-calculated water soluble organic carbon burden.

River export of triclosan from land to sea: A global modelling approach.

PubMed

van Wijnen, Jikke; Ragas, Ad M J; Kroeze, Carolien

2018-04-15

Triclosan (TCS) is an antibacterial agent that is added to commonly used personal care products. Emitted to the aquatic environment in large quantities, it poses a potential threat to aquatic organisms. Triclosan enters the aquatic environment mainly through sewage effluent. We developed a global, spatially explicit model, the Global TCS model, to simulate triclosan transport by rivers to coastal areas. With this model we analysed annual, basin-wide triclosan export for the year 2000 and two future scenarios for the year 2050. Our analyses for 2000 indicate that triclosan export to coastal areas in Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the East Coast of the USA is higher than in the rest of the world. For future scenarios, the Global TCS model predicts an increase in river export of triclosan in Southeast Asia and a small decrease in Europe. The number of rivers with an annual average triclosan concentration at the river mouth that exceeds a PNEC of 26.2ng/L is projected to double between 2000 and 2050. This increase is most prominent in Southeast Asia, as a result of fast population growth, increasing urbanisation and increasing numbers of people connected to sewerage systems with poor wastewater treatment. Predicted triclosan loads correspond reasonably well with measured values. However, basin-specific predictions have considerable uncertainty due to lacking knowledge and location-specific data on the processes determining the fate of triclosan in river water, e.g. sorption, degradation and sedimentation. Additional research on the fate of triclosan in river systems is therefore recommended. We developed a global spatially explicit model to simulate triclosan export by rivers to coastal seas. For two future scenarios this Global TCS model projects an increase in river export of triclosan to several seas around the world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis—A new global high-resolution database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a new global high-resolution hydrologic derivative database. Loosely modeled on the HYDRO1k database, this new database, entitled Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis, provides comprehensive and consistent global coverage of topographically derived raster layers (digital elevation model data, flow direction, flow accumulation, slope, and compound topographic index) and vector layers (streams and catchment boundaries). The coverage of the data is global, and the underlying digital elevation model is a hybrid of three datasets: HydroSHEDS (Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GMTED2010 (Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010), and the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission). For most of the globe south of 60°N., the raster resolution of the data is 3 arc-seconds, corresponding to the resolution of the SRTM. For the areas north of 60°N., the resolution is 7.5 arc-seconds (the highest resolution of the GMTED2010 dataset) except for Greenland, where the resolution is 30 arc-seconds. The streams and catchments are attributed with Pfafstetter codes, based on a hierarchical numbering system, that carry important topological information. This database is appropriate for use in continental-scale modeling efforts. The work described in this report was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center.

Various oscillation patterns in phase models with locally attractive and globally repulsive couplings.

PubMed

Sato, Katsuhiko; Shima, Shin-ichiro

2015-10-01

We investigate a phase model that includes both locally attractive and globally repulsive coupling in one dimension. This model exhibits nontrivial spatiotemporal patterns that have not been observed in systems that contain only local or global coupling. Depending on the relative strengths of the local and global coupling and on the form of global coupling, the system can show a spatially uniform state (in-phase synchronization), a monotonically increasing state (traveling wave), and three types of oscillations of relative phase difference. One of the oscillations of relative phase difference has the characteristic of being locally unstable but globally attractive. That is, any small perturbation to the periodic orbit in phase space destroys its periodic motion, but after a long time the system returns to the original periodic orbit. This behavior is closely related to the emergence of saddle two-cluster states for global coupling only, which are connected to each other by attractive heteroclinic orbits. The mechanism of occurrence of this type of oscillation is discussed.

A Global Upper-Mantle Tomographic Model of Shear Attenuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaoglu, H.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2016-12-01

Mapping anelastic 3D structure within the earth's mantle is key to understanding present day mantle dynamics, as it provides complementary constraints to those obtained from elastic structure, with the potential to distinguish between thermal and compositional heterogeneity. For this, we need to measure seismic wave amplitudes, which are sensitive to both elastic (through focusing and scattering) and anelastic structure. The elastic effects are less pronounced at long periods, so previous global upper-mantle attenuation models are based on teleseismic surface wave data, sometimes including overtones. In these studies, elastic effects are considered either indirectly, by eliminating data strongly contaminated by them (e.g. Romanowicz, 1995; Gung and Romanowicz, 2004), or by correcting for elastic focusing effects using an approximate linear approach (Dalton et al., 2008). Additionally, in these studies, the elastic structure is held fixed when inverting for intrinsic attenuation . The importance of (1) having a good starting elastic model, (2) accurate modeling of the seismic wavefield and (3) joint inversion for elastic and anelastic structure, becomes more evident as the targeted resolution level increases. Also, velocity dispersion effects due to anelasticity need to be taken into account. Here, we employ a hybrid full waveform inversion method, inverting jointly for global elastic and anelastic upper mantle structure, starting from the latest global 3D shear velocity model built by our group (French and Romanowicz, 2014), using the spectral element method for the forward waveform modeling (Capdeville et al., 2003), and normal-mode perturbation theory (NACT - Li and Romanowicz, 1995) for kernel computations. We present a 3D upper-mantle anelastic model built by using three component fundamental and overtone surface waveforms down to 60 s as well as long period body waveforms down to 30 s. We also include source and site effects to first order as frequency

Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

PubMed

Thompson, Kimberly M; Cochi, Stephen L

2016-07-01

Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

DOE PAGES

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; ...

2016-01-22

Earth’s terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsecmore » (~ 1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. As a result, we anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models.« less

A gridded global data set of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposit thicknesses for regional and global land surface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelletier, Jon D.; Broxton, Patrick D.; Hazenberg, Pieter; Zeng, Xubin; Troch, Peter A.; Niu, Guo-Yue; Williams, Zachary; Brunke, Michael A.; Gochis, David

2016-03-01

Earth's terrestrial near-subsurface environment can be divided into relatively porous layers of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits above unweathered bedrock. Variations in the thicknesses of these layers control the hydrologic and biogeochemical responses of landscapes. Currently, Earth System Models approximate the thickness of these relatively permeable layers above bedrock as uniform globally, despite the fact that their thicknesses vary systematically with topography, climate, and geology. To meet the need for more realistic input data for models, we developed a high-resolution gridded global data set of the average thicknesses of soil, intact regolith, and sedimentary deposits within each 30 arcsec (˜1 km) pixel using the best available data for topography, climate, and geology as input. Our data set partitions the global land surface into upland hillslope, upland valley bottom, and lowland landscape components and uses models optimized for each landform type to estimate the thicknesses of each subsurface layer. On hillslopes, the data set is calibrated and validated using independent data sets of measured soil thicknesses from the U.S. and Europe and on lowlands using depth to bedrock observations from groundwater wells in the U.S. We anticipate that the data set will prove useful as an input to regional and global hydrological and ecosystems models. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model Status and Planned Updates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justh, H. L.; Dwyer Cianciolo, A. M.

2017-05-01

Details the current status of Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM). Provides new sources of data and upgrades that need to be incorporated to maintain credibility and identifies options and features that could increase capability.

GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duvall, Aleta; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

2005-01-01

Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

Global hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation in continental rivers: How can we achieve it?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, D.

2016-12-01

Global-scale modelling of river hydrodynamics is essential for understanding global hydrological cycle, and is also required in interdisciplinary research fields . Global river models have been developed continuously for more than two decades, but modelling river flow at a global scale is still a challenging topic because surface water movement in continental rivers is a multi-spatial-scale phenomena. We have to consider the basin-wide water balance (>1000km scale), while hydrodynamics in river channels and floodplains is regulated by much smaller-scale topography (<100m scale). For example, heavy precipitation in upstream regions may later cause flooding in farthest downstream reaches. In order to realistically simulate the timing and amplitude of flood wave propagation for a long distance, consideration of detailed local topography is unavoidable. I have developed the global hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood to overcome this scale-discrepancy of continental river flow. The CaMa-Flood divides river basins into multiple "unit-catchments", and assumes the water level is uniform within each unit-catchment. One unit-catchment is assigned to each grid-box defined at the typical spatial resolution of global climate models (10 100 km scale). Adopting a uniform water level in a >10km river segment seems to be a big assumption, but it is actually a good approximation for hydrodynamic modelling of continental rivers. The number of grid points required for global hydrodynamic simulations is largely reduced by this "unit-catchment assumption". Alternative to calculating 2-dimensional floodplain flows as in regional flood models, the CaMa-Flood treats floodplain inundation in a unit-catchment as a sub-grid physics. The water level and inundated area in each unit-catchment are diagnosed from water volume using topography parameters derived from high-resolution digital elevation models. Thus, the CaMa-Flood is at least 1000 times computationally more efficient compared to regional

Comparisons of Radiative Flux Distributions from Satellite Observations and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Wild, Martin; Stackhouse, Paul; Rossow, Bill

2014-05-01

Radiative flux distributions at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface are compared between typical data from satellite observations and from global modeling. Averages of CERES, ISCCP and SRB data-products (for the same 4-year period) represent satellite observations. Central values of IPCC-4AR output (over a 12-year period) represent global modeling. At TOA, differences are dominated by differences for cloud-effects, which are extracted from the differences between all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux products. As satellite data are considered as TOA reference, these differences document the poor representation of clouds in global modeling, especially for low altitude clouds over oceans. At the surface the differences, caused by the different cloud treatment are overlaid by a general offset. Satellite products suggest a ca 15Wm-2 stronger surface net-imbalance (and with it stronger precipitation). Since surface products of satellite and modeling are based on simulations and many assumptions, this difference has remained an open issue. BSRN surface monitoring is too short and too sparsely distributed for clear answers to provide a reliable basis for validation.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

Application of web-GIS approach for climate change study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Bogomolov, Vasily; Martynova, Yuliya; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. It is based on OGC standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The main advantage of the system lies in a possibility to perform mathematical and statistical data analysis, graphical visualization of results with GIS-functionality, and to prepare binary output files with just only a modern graphical web-browser installed on a common desktop computer connected to Internet. Several geophysical datasets represented by two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. And this list is extending. Also a functionality to run WRF and "Planet simulator" models was implemented in the system. Due to many preset parameters and limited time and spatial ranges set in the system these models have low computational power requirements and could be used in educational workflow for better

Computing diffuse fraction of global horizontal solar radiation: A model comparison.

PubMed

Dervishi, Sokol; Mahdavi, Ardeshir

2012-06-01

For simulation-based prediction of buildings' energy use or expected gains from building-integrated solar energy systems, information on both direct and diffuse component of solar radiation is necessary. Available measured data are, however, typically restricted to global horizontal irradiance. There have been thus many efforts in the past to develop algorithms for the derivation of the diffuse fraction of solar irradiance. In this context, the present paper compares eight models for estimating diffuse fraction of irradiance based on a database of measured irradiance from Vienna, Austria. These models generally involve mathematical formulations with multiple coefficients whose values are typically valid for a specific location. Subsequent to a first comparison of these eight models, three better performing models were selected for a more detailed analysis. Thereby, the coefficients of the models were modified to account for Vienna data. The results suggest that some models can provide relatively reliable estimations of the diffuse fractions of the global irradiance. The calibration procedure could only slightly improve the models' performance.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

A role for the anterior insular cortex in the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness.

PubMed

Michel, Matthias

2017-03-01

According to the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness, consciousness results from the global broadcast of information throughout the brain. The global neuronal workspace is mainly constituted by a fronto-parietal network. The anterior insular cortex is part of this global neuronal workspace, but the function of this region has not yet been defined within the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness. In this review, I hypothesize that the anterior insular cortex implements a cross-modal priority map, the function of which is to determine priorities for the processing of information and subsequent entrance in the global neuronal workspace. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

2017-12-01

The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

Integration of Extended MHD and Kinetic Effects in Global Magnetosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germaschewski, K.; Wang, L.; Maynard, K. R. M.; Raeder, J.; Bhattacharjee, A.

2015-12-01

Computational models of Earth's geospace environment are an important tool to investigate the science of the coupled solar-wind -- magnetosphere -- ionosphere system, complementing satellite and ground observations with a global perspective. They are also crucial in understanding and predicting space weather, in particular under extreme conditions. Traditionally, global models have employed the one-fluid MHD approximation, which captures large-scale dynamics quite well. However, in Earth's nearly collisionless plasma environment it breaks down on small scales, where ion and electron dynamics and kinetic effects become important, and greatly change the reconnection dynamics. A number of approaches have recently been taken to advance global modeling, e.g., including multiple ion species, adding Hall physics in a Generalized Ohm's Law, embedding local PIC simulations into a larger fluid domain and also some work on simulating the entire system with hybrid or fully kinetic models, the latter however being to computationally expensive to be run at realistic parameters. We will present an alternate approach, ie., a multi-fluid moment model that is derived rigorously from the Vlasov-Maxwell system. The advantage is that the computational cost remains managable, as we are still solving fluid equations. While the evolution equation for each moment is exact, it depends on the next higher-order moment, so that truncating the hiearchy and closing the system to capture the essential kinetic physics is crucial. We implement 5-moment (density, momentum, scalar pressure) and 10-moment (includes pressure tensor) versions of the model, and use local approximations for the heat flux to close the system. We test these closures by local simulations where we can compare directly to PIC / hybrid codes, and employ them in global simulations using the next-generation OpenGGCM to contrast them to MHD / Hall-MHD results and compare with observations.

Hydrodynamic modelling and global datasets: Flow connectivity and SRTM data, a Bangkok case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. B.; Michaelides, K.

2012-04-01

The rise in the global interconnected manufacturing supply chains requires an understanding and consistent quantification of flood risk at a global scale. Flood risk is often better quantified (or at least more precisely defined) in regions where there has been an investment in comprehensive topographical data collection such as LiDAR coupled with detailed hydrodynamic modelling. Yet in regions where these data and modelling are unavailable, the implications of flooding and the knock on effects for global industries can be dramatic, as evidenced by the recent floods in Bangkok, Thailand. There is a growing momentum in terms of global modelling initiatives to address this lack of a consistent understanding of flood risk and they will rely heavily on the application of available global datasets relevant to hydrodynamic modelling, such as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and its derivatives. These global datasets bring opportunities to apply consistent methodologies on an automated basis in all regions, while the use of coarser scale datasets also brings many challenges such as sub-grid process representation and downscaled hydrology data from global climate models. There are significant opportunities for hydrological science in helping define new, realistic and physically based methodologies that can be applied globally as well as the possibility of gaining new insights into flood risk through analysis of the many large datasets that will be derived from this work. We use Bangkok as a case study to explore some of the issues related to using these available global datasets for hydrodynamic modelling, with particular focus on using SRTM data to represent topography. Research has shown that flow connectivity on the floodplain is an important component in the dynamics of flood flows on to and off the floodplain, and indeed within different areas of the floodplain. A lack of representation of flow connectivity, often due to data resolution limitations, means

An online mineral dust model within the global/regional NMMB: current progress and plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.

2008-12-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are occurring on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the high-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors in surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by major meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently about 1 degree x 1 degree . Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for mesoscale systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other significant uncertainties in dust emissions resulting from such approaches are related to the misrepresentation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. In order to significantly reduce these uncertainties, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently implementing a mineral dust model coupled on-line with the new global/regional NMMB atmospheric model using the ESMF framework under development in NOAA/NCEP/EMC. The NMMB is an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME extending from meso to global scales, and including non-hydrostatic option and improved tracer advection. This model is planned to become the next-generation NCEP mesoscale model for operational weather forecasting in North America. Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system Eta/DREAM (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/). First successful global simulations show the potentials of such an approach and compare well with DREAM regionally. Ongoing developments include improvements in dust size distribution representation, sedimentation, dry deposition, wet

An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

2015-04-01

The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

A Year-Long Comparison of GPS TEC and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlongo, N. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Cnossen, I.; Wu, C.

2018-02-01

The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere-thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year-long data-model comparison using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE-GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts.

Global stability in a tuberculosis model of imperfect treatment with age-dependent latency and relapse.

PubMed

Ren, Shanjing

In this paper, an SEIR epidemic model for an imperfect treatment disease with age-dependent latency and relapse is proposed. The model is well-suited to model tuberculosis. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated. We obtain the global behavior of the model in terms of R0. If R0< 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if R0>1, a Lyapunov functional is used to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable amongst solutions for which the disease is present.

A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

2017-08-01

Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

GAMBIT: the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Dickinson, Hugh; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Lundberg, Johan; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2017-11-01

We describe the open-source global fitting package GAMBIT: the Global And Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool. GAMBIT combines extensive calculations of observables and likelihoods in particle and astroparticle physics with a hierarchical model database, advanced tools for automatically building analyses of essentially any model, a flexible and powerful system for interfacing to external codes, a suite of different statistical methods and parameter scanning algorithms, and a host of other utilities designed to make scans faster, safer and more easily-extendible than in the past. Here we give a detailed description of the framework, its design and motivation, and the current models and other specific components presently implemented in GAMBIT. Accompanying papers deal with individual modules and present first GAMBIT results. GAMBIT can be downloaded from gambit.hepforge.org.

Global scale modeling of riverine sediment loads: tropical rivers in a global context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Sagy; Syvitski, James; Kettner, Albert

2015-04-01

A global scale riverine sediment flux model (termed WBMsed) is introduced. The model predicts spatially and temporally explicit water, suspended sediment and nutrients flux in relatively high resolutions (6 arc-min and daily). Modeled riverine suspended sediment flux through global catchments is used in conjunction with observational data for 35 tropical basins to highlight key basin scaling relationships. A 50 year, daily model simulation illuminates how precipitation, relief, lithology and drainage basin area affect sediment load, yield and concentration. Tropical river systems, wherein much of a drainage basin experiences tropical climate are strongly influenced by the annual and inter-annual variations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its derivative monsoonal winds, have comparatively low inter-annual variation in sediment yield. Rivers draining rainforests and those subjected to tropical monsoons typically demonstrate high runoff, but with notable exceptions. High rainfall intensities from burst weather events are common in the tropics. The release of rain-forming aerosols also appears to uniquely increase regional rainfall, but its geomorphic manifestation is hard to detect. Compared to other more temperate river systems, climate-driven tropical rivers do not appear to transport a disproportionate amount of particulate load to the world's oceans, and their warmer, less viscous waters are less competent. Multiple-year hydrographs reveal that seasonality is a dominant feature of most tropical rivers, but the rivers of Papua New Guinea are somewhat unique being less seasonally modulated. Local sediment yield within the Amazon is highest near the Andes, but decreases towards the ocean as the river's discharge is diluted by water influxes from sediment-deprived rainforest tributaries

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential for using regional and global datasets for national scale ecosystem service modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Deborah; Jackson, Bethanna

2016-04-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly being used by planners and policy makers to inform policy development and decisions about national-level resource management. Such models allow ecosystem services to be mapped and quantified, and subsequent changes to these services to be identified and monitored. In some cases, the impact of small scale changes can be modelled at a national scale, providing more detailed information to decision makers about where to best focus investment and management interventions that could address these issues, while moving toward national goals and/or targets. National scale modelling often uses national (or local) data (for example, soils, landcover and topographical information) as input. However, there are some places where fine resolution and/or high quality national datasets cannot be easily obtained, or do not even exist. In the absence of such detailed information, regional or global datasets could be used as input to such models. There are questions, however, about the usefulness of these coarser resolution datasets and the extent to which inaccuracies in this data may degrade predictions of existing and potential ecosystem service provision and subsequent decision making. Using LUCI (the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator) as an example predictive model, we examine how the reliability of predictions change when national datasets of soil, landcover and topography are substituted with coarser scale regional and global datasets. We specifically look at how LUCI's predictions of where water services, such as flood risk, flood mitigation, erosion and water quality, change when national data inputs are replaced by regional and global datasets. Using the Conwy catchment, Wales, as a case study, the land cover products compared are the UK's Land Cover Map (2007), the European CORINE land cover map and the ESA global land cover map. Soils products include the National Soil Map of England and Wales (NatMap) and the European

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset

Global embedding of fibre inflation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicoli, Michele; Muia, Francesco; Shukla, Pramod

2016-11-01

We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h 1,1 = 3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ1 base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

The NASA MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2007 Version

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leslie, F.W.; Justus, C.G.

2008-01-01

Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability, and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes) as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. A unique feature of GRAM is that, addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations in these atmospheric parameters (e.g. fluctuations due to turbulence and other atmospheric perturbation phenomena). A summary comparing GRAM features to characteristics and features of other reference or standard atmospheric models, can be found Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models. The original GRAM has undergone a series of improvements over the years with recent additions and changes. The software program is called Earth-GRAM2007 to distinguish it from similar programs for other bodies (e.g. Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan). However, in order to make this Technical Memorandum (TM) more readable, the software will be referred to simply as GRAM07 or GRAM unless additional clarity is needed. Section 1 provides an overview of the basic features of GRAM07 including the newly added features. Section 2 provides a more detailed description of GRAM07 and how the model output generated. Section 3 presents sample results. Appendices A and B describe the Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) data and the Global Gridded Air Statistics (GGUAS) database. Appendix C provides instructions for compiling and running GRAM07. Appendix D gives a description of the required NAMELIST format input. Appendix E gives sample output. Appendix F provides a list of available

Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

2013-08-01

Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

2017-04-01

The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

2018-01-01

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

Modelling the angular effects on satellite retrieved LST at global scale using a land surface classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermida, Sofia; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Pires, Ana C.; Ghent, Darren

2017-04-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key climatological variable and a diagnostic parameter of land surface conditions. Remote sensing constitutes the most effective method to observe LST over large areas and on a regular basis. Although LST estimation from remote sensing instruments operating in the Infrared (IR) is widely used and has been performed for nearly 3 decades, there is still a list of open issues. One of these is the LST dependence on viewing and illumination geometry. This effect introduces significant discrepancies among LST estimations from different sensors, overlapping in space and time, that are not related to uncertainties in the methodologies or input data used. Furthermore, these directional effects deviate LST products from an ideally defined LST, which should represent to the ensemble of directional radiometric temperature of all surface elements within the FOV. Angular effects on LST are here conveniently estimated by means of a kernel model of the surface thermal emission, which describes the angular dependence of LST as a function of viewing and illumination geometry. The model is calibrated using LST data as provided by a wide range of sensors to optimize spatial coverage, namely: 1) a LEO sensor - the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on-board NASA's TERRA and AQUA; and 2) 3 GEO sensors - the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on-board EUMETSAT's Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), the Japanese Meteorological Imager (JAMI) on-board the Japanese Meteorological Association (JMA) Multifunction Transport SATellite (MTSAT-2), and NASA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). As shown in our previous feasibility studies the sampling of illumination and view angles has a high impact on the obtained model parameters. This impact may be mitigated when the sampling size is increased by aggregating pixels with similar surface conditions. Here we propose a methodology where land surface is

Global D-brane models with stabilised moduli and light axions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicoli, Michele

2014-03-01

We review recent attempts to try to combine global issues of string compactifications, like moduli stabilisation, with local issues, like semi-realistic D-brane constructions. We list the main problems encountered, and outline a possible solution which allows globally consistent embeddings of chiral models. We also argue that this stabilisation mechanism leads to an axiverse. We finally illustrate our general claims in a concrete example where the Calabi-Yau manifold is explicitly described by toric geometry.

In-cloud oxalate formation in the global troposphere: a 3-D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myriokefalitakis, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Sciare, J.; Nenes, A.; Segers, A.; Kanakidou, M.

2011-01-01

Organic acids attract increasing attention as contributors to atmospheric acidity, secondary organic aerosol mass and aerosol hygroscopicity. Oxalic acid is globally the most abundant dicarboxylic acid, formed via chemical oxidation of gas-phase precursors in the aqueous phase of aerosols and droplets. Its lifecycle and atmospheric global distribution remain highly uncertain and are the focus of this study. The first global spatial and temporal distribution of oxalate, simulated using a state-of-the-art aqueous phase chemical scheme embedded within the global 3-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM4-ECPL, is here presented. The model accounts for comprehensive gas-phase chemistry and its coupling with major aerosol constituents (including secondary organic aerosol). Model results are consistent with ambient observations of oxalate at rural and remote locations (slope = 0.83 ± 0.06, r2 = 0.67, N = 106) and suggest that aqueous phase chemistry contributes significantly to the global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol. In TM4-ECPL most oxalate is formed in-clouds and less than 10% is produced in aerosol water. About 61% of the oxalate is removed via wet deposition, 35% by in-cloud reaction with hydroxyl radical and 4% by dry deposition. The global oxalate net chemical production is calculated to be about 17-27 Tg yr-1 with almost 91% originating from biogenic hydrocarbons, mainly isoprene. This condensed phase net source of oxalate in conjunction with a global mean turnover time against deposition of about 5 days, maintain oxalate's global tropospheric burden of 0.24-0.39 Tg that is about 13-19% of calculated total organic aerosol burden.

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEXACHLOROBENZENE

EPA Science Inventory

The distributions of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the global environment have been studied typically with box/fugacity models with simplified treatments of atmospheric transport processes1. Such models are incapable of simulating the complex three-dimensional mechanis...

Modeling of the Earth's gravity field using the New Global Earth Model (NEWGEM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Yeong E.; Braswell, W. Danny

1989-01-01

Traditionally, the global gravity field was described by representations based on the spherical harmonics (SH) expansion of the geopotential. The SH expansion coefficients were determined by fitting the Earth's gravity data as measured by many different methods including the use of artificial satellites. As gravity data have accumulated with increasingly better accuracies, more of the higher order SH expansion coefficients were determined. The SH representation is useful for describing the gravity field exterior to the Earth but is theoretically invalid on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior. A new global Earth model (NEWGEM) (KIM, 1987 and 1988a) was recently proposed to provide a unified description of the Earth's gravity field inside, on, and outside the Earth's surface using the Earth's mass density profile as deduced from seismic studies, elevation and bathymetric information, and local and global gravity data. Using NEWGEM, it is possible to determine the constraints on the mass distribution of the Earth imposed by gravity, topography, and seismic data. NEWGEM is useful in investigating a variety of geophysical phenomena. It is currently being utilized to develop a geophysical interpretation of Kaula's rule. The zeroth order NEWGEM is being used to numerically integrate spherical harmonic expansion coefficients and simultaneously determine the contribution of each layer in the model to a given coefficient. The numerically determined SH expansion coefficients are also being used to test the validity of SH expansions at the surface of the Earth by comparing the resulting SH expansion gravity model with exact calculations of the gravity at the Earth's surface.

Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

2016-12-01

The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP): Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reddington, C. L.; Carslaw, K. S.; Stier, P.

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, tomore » create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model–data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.« less

The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP): Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Reddington, C. L.; Carslaw, K. S.; Stier, P.; ...

2017-09-01

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, tomore » create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model–data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.« less

A Neural Network Model for K(λ) Retrieval and Application to Global Kpar Monitoring.

PubMed

Chen, Jun; Zhu, Yuanli; Wu, Yongsheng; Cui, Tingwei; Ishizaka, Joji; Ju, Yongtao

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of diffuse attenuation coefficients in the visible wavelengths Kd(λ) from remotely sensed data is particularly challenging in global oceanic and coastal waters. The objectives of the present study are to evaluate the applicability of a semi-analytical Kd(λ) retrieval model (SAKM) and Jamet's neural network model (JNNM), and then develop a new neural network Kd(λ) retrieval model (NNKM). Based on the comparison of Kd(λ) predicted by these models with in situ measurements taken from the global oceanic and coastal waters, all of the NNKM, SAKM, and JNNM models work well in Kd(λ) retrievals, but the NNKM model works more stable and accurate than both SAKM and JNNM models. The near-infrared band-based and shortwave infrared band-based combined model is used to remove the atmospheric effects on MODIS data. The Kd(λ) data was determined from the atmospheric corrected MODIS data using the NNKM, JNNM, and SAKM models. The results show that the NNKM model produces <30% uncertainty in deriving Kd(λ) from global oceanic and coastal waters, which is 4.88-17.18% more accurate than SAKM and JNNM models. Furthermore, we employ an empirical approach to calculate Kpar from the NNKM model-derived diffuse attenuation coefficient at visible bands (443, 488, 555, and 667 nm). The results show that our model presents a satisfactory performance in deriving Kpar from the global oceanic and coastal waters with 20.2% uncertainty. The Kpar are quantified from MODIS data atmospheric correction using our model. Comparing with field measurements, our model produces ~31.0% uncertainty in deriving Kpar from Bohai Sea. Finally, the applicability of our model for general oceanographic studies is briefly illuminated by applying it to climatological monthly mean remote sensing reflectance for time ranging from July, 2002- July 2014 at the global scale. The results indicate that the high Kd(λ) and Kpar values are usually found around the coastal zones in the high latitude

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

2017-12-01

Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

The substorm loading-unloading cycle as reproduced by community-available global MHD magnetospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordeev, Evgeny; Sergeev, Victor; Tsyganenko, Nikolay; Kuznetsova, Maria; Rastaetter, Lutz; Raeder, Joachim; Toth, Gabor; Lyon, John; Merkin, Vyacheslav; Wiltberger, Michael

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate how well the three community-available global MHD models, supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC NASA), reproduce the global magnetospheric dynamics, including the loading-unloading substorm cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized 2-hour north then 2-hour south IMF Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection in the tail plasma sheet and high rate of magnetic flux loading into the lobes during the growth phase, as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded/unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. BATSRUS and Open GGCM models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. Our study shows that different CCMC models under the same solar wind conditions (north to south IMF variation) produce essentially different solutions in terms of global magnetospheric convection.

Hydrological Validation of The Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model - First Results and Required Actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, U.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

Dynamic global vegetation models are developed with the main purpose to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation at the global scale. Increasing concern about climate change impacts has put the focus of recent applications on the sim- ulation of the global carbon cycle. Water is a prime driver of biogeochemical and biophysical processes, thus an appropriate representation of the water cycle is crucial for their proper simulation. However, these models usually lack thorough validation of the water balance they produce. Here we present a hydrological validation of the current version of the LPJ (Lund- Potsdam-Jena) model, a dynamic global vegetation model operating at daily time steps. Long-term simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are compared to literature values, results from three global hydrological models, and discharge observations from various macroscale river basins. It was found that the seasonal and spatial patterns of the LPJ-simulated average values correspond well both with the measurements and the results from the stand-alone hy- drological models. However, a general underestimation of runoff occurs, which may be attributable to the low input dynamics of precipitation (equal distribution within a month), to the simulated vegetation pattern (potential vegetation without anthro- pogenic influence), and to some generalizations of the hydrological components in LPJ. Future research will focus on a better representation of the temporal variability of climate forcing, improved description of hydrological processes, and on the consider- ation of anthropogenic land use.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Calibration for an Ecosystem Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Sargsyan, K.; Najm, H. N.; Debusschere, B.; Thornton, P. E.

2013-12-01

We present uncertainty quantification results for a process-based ecosystem carbon model. The model employs 18 parameters and is driven by meteorological data corresponding to years 1992-2006 at the Harvard Forest site. Daily Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) observations were available to calibrate the model parameters and test the performance of the model. Posterior distributions show good predictive capabilities for the calibrated model. A global sensitivity analysis was first performed to determine the important model parameters based on their contribution to the variance of NEE. We then proceed to calibrate the model parameters in a Bayesian framework. The daily discrepancies between measured and predicted NEE values were modeled as independent and identically distributed Gaussians with prescribed daily variance according to the recorded instrument error. All model parameters were assumed to have uninformative priors with bounds set according to expert opinion. The global sensitivity results show that the rate of leaf fall (LEAFALL) is responsible for approximately 25% of the total variance in the average NEE for 1992-2005. A set of 4 other parameters, Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), base rate for maintenance respiration (BR_MR), growth respiration fraction (RG_FRAC), and allocation to plant stem pool (ASTEM) contribute between 5% and 12% to the variance in average NEE, while the rest of the parameters have smaller contributions. The posterior distributions, sampled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, exhibit significant correlations between model parameters. However LEAFALL, the most important parameter for the average NEE, is not informed by the observational data, while less important parameters show significant updates between their prior and posterior densities. The Fisher information matrix values, indicating which parameters are most informed by the experimental observations, are examined to augment the comparison between the calibration and global

Global geodynamic models constrained by tectonic reconstructions including plate deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurnis, M.; Flament, N.; Spasojevic, S.; Williams, S.; Seton, M.; Müller, R. D.

2011-12-01

In order to investigate the effect of mantle flow on the Earth's surface, imposing the kinematics predicted by plate reconstructions in global convection models has become common practice. Such models are valuable to investigate the effect of the mantle flow beneath the lithosphere on surface topography. Changes in surface topography due to lithospheric deformation are so far not part of top-down tectonic models in which plates are treated as rigid in traditional tectonic reconstructions. We introduce a new generation of geodynamic models that are based on tectonic reconstructions with deforming plates at both passive and convergent margins. These models allow us to investigate the relationships between lithospheric deformation and mantle flow, and their combined effects on surface topography. In traditional tectonic reconstructions, continents are represented as rigid blocks that either overlap or are separated by gaps in full-fit reconstructions. Reconstructions that include a global network of topological plate polygons avoid continental overlaps and gaps, but velocities are still derived on the basis of the Euler poles for rigid blocks. To resolve these issues, we developed a series of deforming plate models using the open source plate modeling software GPlates. For a given area, our methodology requires the relative motions between major rigid continental blocks, and a definition of the regions in which continental lithosphere deformed between these blocks. We use geophysical and geological data to define the limit between rigid and deforming areas, and the deformation history of non-rigid blocks. The velocity field predicted by these reconstructions is then used as a time-dependent surface boundary condition in global 3-D geodynamic models. To incorporate the continental lithosphere in our global models, we embed compositionally distinct crust and continental lithosphere within the thermal lithosphere. We define three isostatic columns of different thickness

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Modeling global yield growth of major crops under multiple socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, T.; Kim, W.; Zhihong, S.; Nishimori, M.

2016-12-01

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are a key tool in deriving global food security scenarios under climate change. However, it is difficult for GGCMs to reproduce the reported yield growth patterns—rapid growth, yield stagnation and yield collapse. Here, we propose a set of parameterizations for GGCMs to capture the contributions to yield from technological improvements at the national and multi-decadal scales. These include country annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP)-based parameterizations for the nitrogen application rate and crop tolerance to stresses associated with high temperature, low temperature, water deficit and water excess. Using a GGCM combined with the parameterizations, we present global 140-year (1961-2100) yield growth simulations for maize, soybean, rice and wheat under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and no climate change. The model reproduces the major characteristics of reported global and country yield growth patterns over the 1961-2013 period. Under the most rapid developmental pathway SSP5, the simulated global yields for 2091-2100, relative to 2001-2010, are the highest (1.21-1.82 times as high, with variations across the crops), followed by SSP1 (1.14-1.56 times as high), SSP2 (1.12-1.49 times as high), SSP4 (1.08-1.38 times as high) and SSP3 (1.08-1.36 times as high). Future country yield growth varies substantially by income level as well as by crop and by SSP. These yield pathways offer a new baseline for addressing the interdisciplinary questions related to global agricultural development, food security and climate change.

A model of CO-CH4 global transport/chemistry. I - Chemistry model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, L. K.; Kitada, T.

1980-01-01

A simplified chemistry model was developed to incorporate the CO-CH4 chemistry into the global transport model of these compounds. CO is important because of its effects on atmospheric chemistry and is partly responsible for controlling the hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration in the troposphere. The model includes the photodissociation rate coefficients expressed as functions of solar zenith angle and altitude, and it was applied to determine the sensitivity of the OH concentration to trace gaseous species, such as NOx, O3, and H2O. Also, the concentrations and diurnal variations of OH and HO2, and the contribution of individual reactions to OH generation and consumption were calculated.

Modelling Climate/Global Change and Assessing Environmental Risks for Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykosov, V. N.; Kabanov, M. V.; Heimann, M.; Gordov, E. P.

2009-04-01

The state-of-the-art climate models are based on a combined atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. A central direction of their development is associated with an increasingly accurate description of all physical processes participating in climate formation. In modeling global climate, it is necessary to reconstruct seasonal and monthly mean values, seasonal variability (monsoon cycle, parameters of storm-tracks, etc.), climatic variability (its dominating modes, such as El Niño or Arctic Oscillation), etc. At the same time, it is quite urgent now to use modern mathematical models in studying regional climate and ecological peculiarities, in particular, that of Northern Eurasia. It is related with the fact that, according to modern ideas, natural environment in mid- and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere is most sensitive to the observed global climate changes. One should consider such tasks of modeling regional climate as detailed reconstruction of its characteristics, investigation of the peculiarities of hydrological cycle, estimation of the possibility of extreme phenomena to occur, and investigation of the consequences of the regional climate changes for the environment and socio-economic relations as its basic tasks. Changes in nature and climate in Siberia are of special interest in view of the global change in the Earth system. The vast continental territory of Siberia is undoubtedly a ponderable natural territorial region of Eurasian continent, which is characterized by the various combinations of climate-forming factors. Forests, water, and wetland areas are situated on a significant part of Siberia. They play planetary important regulating role due to the processes of emission and accumulation of the main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.). Evidence of the enhanced rates of the warming observed in the region and the consequences of such warming for natural environment are undoubtedly important reason for integrated regional

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.

1997-01-01

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

2016-04-01

Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO /LASCO, and STEREO /COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson–Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson–Low flux rope parameters through a handful ofmore » observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).« less

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, I.; Prather, M.; John, J.; Lerner, J.; Matthews, E.

1991-01-01

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Modelling the global tropospheric molecular hydrogen cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieterse, G.

2013-01-01

show that the global tropospheric budget of H2 can be constrained quite well with available measurements. The study starts with the derivation of a full hydrogen isotope chemistry scheme to use the measured deuterium content in atmospheric H2 as an additional constraint for the global budget. This new chemistry scheme is subsequently evaluated and the most important parameters in the photochemistry are identified. A condensed version of the new chemistry scheme is implemented in the global TM5 model. The new model results are verified using available measurements of H2 mixing ratios and isotopic compositions from two global flask sampling networks and the EuroHydros network. Finally, a new tropospheric budget is derived for H2. The tropospheric burden is estimated at 165±8 Tg and the removal of H2 by deposition and photochemical oxidation are estimated at 53±4 and 23±2 Tg/yr, respectively. The main (photochemical) source is estimated at 37±4 Tg/yr. From these numbers, a tropospheric lifetime of 2.2±0.2 yr for H2 is derived. These new ranges of uncertainty allow for a much more accurate evaluation of the impact of future increases in H2 emissions on air quality and climate.

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.; Kim, K.-M.

2013-01-01

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Mapping the global football field: a sociological model of transnational forces within the world game.

PubMed

Giulianotti, Richard; Robertson, Roland

2012-06-01

This paper provides a sociological model of the key transnational political and economic forces that are shaping the 'global football field'. The model draws upon, and significantly extends, the theory of the 'global field' developed previously by Robertson. The model features four quadrants, each of which contains a dominant operating principle, an 'elemental reference point', and an 'elemental theme'. The quadrants contain, first, neo-liberalism, associated with the individual and elite football clubs; second, neo-mercantilism, associated with nation-states and national football systems; third, international relations, associated with international governing bodies; and fourth, global civil society, associated with diverse institutions that pursue human development and/or social justice. We examine some of the interactions and tensions between the major institutional and ideological forces across the four quadrants. We conclude by examining how the weakest quadrant, featuring global civil society, may gain greater prominence within football. In broad terms, we argue that our four-fold model may be utilized to map and to examine other substantive research fields with reference to globalization. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2012.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: The land dynamics (LaD) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Shmakin, A.B.

2002-01-01

A simple model of large-scale land (continental) water and energy balances is presented. The model is an extension of an earlier scheme with a record of successful application in climate modeling. The most important changes from the original model include 1) introduction of non-water-stressed stomatal control of transpiration, in order to correct a tendency toward excessive evaporation: 2) conversion from globally constant parameters (with the exception of vegetation-dependent snow-free surface albedo) to more complete vegetation and soil dependence of all parameters, in order to provide more realistic representation of geographic variations in water and energy balances and to enable model-based investigations of land-cover change; 3) introduction of soil sensible heat storage and transport, in order to move toward realistic diurnal-cycle modeling; 4) a groundwater (saturated-zone) storage reservoir, in order to provide more realistic temporal variability of runoff; and 5) a rudimentary runoff-routing scheme for delivery of runoff to the ocean, in order to provide realistic freshwater forcing of the ocean general circulation model component of a global climate model. The new model is tested with forcing from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative I global dataset and a recently produced observation-based water-balance dataset for major river basins of the world. Model performance is evaluated by comparing computed and observed runoff ratios from many major river basins of the world. Special attention is given to distinguishing between two components of the apparent runoff ratio error: the part due to intrinsic model error and the part due to errors in the assumed precipitation forcing. The pattern of discrepancies between modeled and observed runoff ratios is consistent with results from a companion study of precipitation estimation errors. The new model is tuned by adjustment of a globally constant scale factor for non

Global and local threshold in a metapopulational SEIR model with quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Marcelo F. C.; Rossi, Luca; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro

2013-03-01

Diseases which have the possibility of transmission before the onset of symptoms pose a challenging threat to healthcare since it is hard to track spreaders and implement quarantine measures. More precisely, one main concerns regarding pandemic spreading of diseases is the prediction-and eventually control-of local outbreaks that will trigger a global invasion of a particular disease. We present a metapopulation disease spreading model with transmission from both symptomatic and asymptomatic agents and analyze the role of quarantine measures and mobility processes between subpopulations. We show that, depending on the disease parameters, it is possible to separate in the parameter space the local and global thresholds and study the system behavior as a function of the fraction of asymptomatic transmissions. This means that it is possible to have a range of parameters values where although we do not achieve local control of the outbreak it is possible to control the global spread of the disease. We validate the analytic picture in data-driven model that integrates commuting, air traffic flow and detailed information about population size and structure worldwide. Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems (MoBS)

Next Generation Community Based Unified Global Modeling System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with unified model development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales. Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The unified modeling system is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization. This talk presents the current and future plans of unified model development at NCEP for weather, sub-seasonal, and seasonal climate prediction applications with special

Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

2016-01-01

Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-26

Teixeira, J., Peng, M., Hogan, T.F., Pauley, R., 2002. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS): Forcing for ocean models...Impact of parameterized lee wave drag on the energy budget of an eddying global ocean model David S. Trossman a,⇑, Brian K. Arbic a, Stephen T...input and output terms in the total mechanical energy budget of a hybrid coordinate high-resolution global ocean general circulation model forced by winds

Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate