Science.gov

Sample records for jma global model

  1. Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Munehiko; Nakazawa, Tetsuo; Aonashi, Kazumasa

    2012-05-01

    The JMA's Global Spectral Model (JMA/GSM) was run from the initial conditions of ECMWF, which are available in the YOTC data set, to distinguish between TC track prediction errors attributable to the initial conditions and those attributable to the NWP model. The average position error was reduced by about 10% by replacing the initial conditions, and in some cases, the predictions were significantly improved. In these cases, the low wavenumber component of the ECMWF analysis was found to account for most of the improvement. In addition, the observed tracks were captured by the JMA Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS), which deals with initial condition uncertainties. In some cases, however, the replacement of the initial conditions did not improve the prediction even when the ECMWF forecast was accurate. In these cases, TEPS could not capture the observed track either, implying the need for dealing with uncertainties associated with the NWP model.

  2. Intensity and Development Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones by the JMA High-Resolution Global NWP Model: Impacts of Resolution Enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komori, T.; Kitagawa, H.

    2007-12-01

    It is widely considered that a spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model plays an important role for forecasting severe weather events such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and heavy rainfall. Under the KAKUSHIN project (funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new Global Spectral Model (GSM) with a high horizontal resolution of about 20km and 60 vertical layers (hereafter called g20km GSMh), which is utilized to evaluate severe weather events in future climate. The 20km GSM will be operational in November 2007 replacing the current GSM with a horizontal resolution of about 60km and 40 vertical layers (hereafter called g60km GSMh). In the present study, we investigate how a model resolution impacts on TC forecasts because this resolution enhancement aims to improve the model's ability to forecast severe weather. Due to the more realistic model topography in higher horizontal resolution, the 20km GSM can give more accurate forecasts of orographic precipitation than the 60km GSM, especially over the area range of heavy precipitation. According to the statistically verified results, the enhancement of horizontal and vertical resolution appears to fairly improve the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts. However, for TC track forecasts, it may be more important to accurately represent large-scale environmental contexts surrounding the TC than to resolve the TC structure itself. In order to clarify resolution impacts on the TC intensity prediction, we categorize the TC intensity forecasts into three stages (development stage, maturation stage and dissipation stage). The results show that the effectiveness of the resolution enhancement is bigger in the development stage and relatively small in the maturation and dissipation stages. For the maturation and dissipation stages, improvement of physical processes seems to be more important than the resolution

  3. Improvement of Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Analysis at JMA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, T.; Maki, T.; Machida, T.; Matsuda, H.; Sawa, Y.; Niwa, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new inversion system of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction and flux for better understanding of global carbon budget and contribution to global carbon cycle studies. The new system introduces a newly developed on-line atmospheric tracer transport model (GSAM-TM). Its tracer transport process is directly coupled with a low resolution version (TL95) of JMA's operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (JMA_GSM), using mass conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme and Arakawa-Shubert mass flux scheme for vertical convective transportation. It represents mass transportation, mass conservation, and structures of tracer distribution more precisely than JMA's previous transport model (CDTM), which is off-line tracer transport model using semi-Lagrangian scheme and Kuo-based convection scheme with multiplying globally uniform coefficient for mass conservation. The new system also introduces new a priori fluxes for fossil fuel consumption and oceanic CO2 exchange. In this study, we compare CO2 mole fraction field and flux estimates of the new system against that of current annual JMA analysis with CDTM. The new system represents better atmospheric CO2 distribution structure than the current system does especially vertical gradient around tropopause. Due to improvement of fossil fuel CO2 diffusion estimates, analyzed regional budget over Eurasian Continent changed clearly. Budgets for less observation area (South America and Africa) are also changed. Globally averaged atmospheric CO2 budget is not changed significantly. This new system is planned to be operationally implemented in 2016, and we will further improve the CO2 inversion analysis for understanding of carbon cycle.

  4. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture. PMID:24703334

  5. Ensemble flood forecasting to support dam water release operation using 10 and 2 km-resolution JMA Nonhydrostatic Model ensemble rainfalls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, K.; Otsuka, S.; Apip; Saito, K.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolution. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km-resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km-resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1; a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km-resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while, at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km-resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls show much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  6. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Yasuda, Tamaki; Fujii, Yosuke; Matsumoto, Satoshi; Soga, Taizo; Mori, Hirotoshi; Hirai, Masayuki; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Sato, Hitoshi; Shimpo, Akihiko; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ose, Tomoaki

    2016-04-01

    This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981-2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system's ability to represent atmosphere-ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Niño events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

  7. Global Atmospheric Aerosol Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Johannes; Aquila, Valentina; Righi, Mattia

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.

  8. Development of a Forecasting and Data Assimilation System for Asian Dust in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumimoto, K.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Ogi, A.; Sekiyama, T. T.; Maki, T.; Murakami, H.; Kikuchi, M.; Nagao, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust, a major aerosol during springtime in East Asia, impacts various aspects including social activity, human health, climate and the ocean ecosystem. To mitigate the damage of severe dust storms, it is crucial to develop a forecasting and early warning system for Asian dust. Since 2007, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has taken the lead with 40 international partners to develop a Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a numerical forecasting system for Asian dust in 2004, and completed a major renovation of the system in November 2014. In the renovation, we replaced a general circulation model (the JMA98 GCM) and dust emission scheme (based on wind velocity at 10 m) with new ones (the GSMUV GCM and a friction velocity based emission scheme). A 5-year validation exhibits that the renovation achieves better forecasting score (especially in short range forecast). Our group has resolution improvement (up to ~40 km) and implementation of data assimilation with satellite observations in the upcoming updates. A feasibility study on involving observations from Himawari-8 (JMA's new geostationary meteorological satellite) into the system is also conducted for better forecasting skill and toward robust early warning.

  9. Global Timber Model (GTM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    GTM is an economic model capable of examining global forestry land-use, management, and trade responses to policies. In responding to a policy, the model captures afforestation, forest management, and avoided deforestation behavior. The model estimates harvests in industrial fore...

  10. Global ice sheet modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

  11. An Evaluation of the Practicability of Current Mapping Functions using Ray-traced Atmosphere Slant Delays from JMA Mesoscale Numerical Weather Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichikawa, R.; Hobiger, T.; Koyama, Y.; Kondo, T.

    2008-12-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) meso-scale analysis data (MANAL data) which we used in our study provides temperature, humidity, and pressure values at the surface and at 21 height levels (which vary between several tens of meters and about 31 km), for each node in a 10km by 10 km grid that covers Japan islands, the surrounding ocean and eastern Eurasia. The 3-hourly operational products are available by JMA since March, 2006. We have simultaneously evaluated atmospheric parameters (equivalent zenith total delay and linear horizontal delay gradients) and position errors derived from slant path delays obtained by the KAshima RAytracing Tools (KARAT) through the MANAL data. Most of the early mapping functions developed for VLBI and GPS were based on the assumption of azimuthal isotropy. On the other hand, the recent geodetic analyses are carried out by applying the modern mapping functions based on the numerical weather analysis fields. The Global Mapping Function (GMF) by Boehm et al. (2006), and Vienna Mapping Function (VMF) by Boehm and Schuh (2004) have been successfully applied to remove the zenith hydrostatic delay in the recent years. In addition, the lateral spatial variation of wet delay is reduced by linear gradient estimation. Comparisons between KARAT-based slant delay and empirical mapping functions indicate large biases ranging from 18 to 90 mm, which is considered to be caused by significant variability of water vapor. Position error simulation reveal that the highly variability of the errors is clearly associated with severe atmospheric phenomena. Such simulation are very useful to investigate the characteristics of positioning errors generated by local atmospheric disturbances. Finally, we compared PPP processed position solutions using KARAT with those using the latest mapping functions covering a period of two week GEONET data. The KARAT solution is almost identical to the solution using GMF with linear gradient model, but some cases tends to

  12. Global Hail Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  13. Global Core Plasma Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, P. D.; Comfort, R. H.

    1999-01-01

    Abstract. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) provides, empirically derived, core plasma density as a function of geomagnetic and solar conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. It is continuous in value and gradient and is composed of separate models for the ionosphere, the plasmasphere, the plasmapause, the trough, and the polar cap. The relative composition of plasmaspheric H+, He+, and O+ is included in the GCPM. A blunt plasmaspheric bulge and rotation of the bulge with changing geomagnetic conditions is included. The GCPM is an amalgam of density models, intended to serve as a framework for continued improvement as new measurements become available and are used to characterize core plasma density, composition, and temperature.

  14. Global Energy Futures Model

    SciTech Connect

    Malczynski, Leonard; Baker, Arnold; Beyeler, Walt; Conrad, Stephen; Harris, David; Harris, Paul; Rexroth, Paul; Bixler, and Nathan

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

  15. Global Energy Futures Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data frommore » 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.« less

  16. The Global Flood Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  17. Global Volcano Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  18. Global Modeling Activities and NAME

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    In this talk I will review global modeling activities in the United States that could contribute to and benefit from NAME activities. I will present some preliminary results from several global atmospheric general circulation model simulation experiments for the initial NAME model intercomparison project period of May-Oct 1990. These include an ensemble of medium resolution simulations, and a high resolution (one half degree) simulation. I will also discuss possible high resolution global data assimilation experiments that could be used to help validate the model simulations and assimilate planned NAME observations.

  19. Global nuclear material control model

    SciTech Connect

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-05-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material.

  20. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  1. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  2. A new global ionospheric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yip, K. W.; Vonroos, O. H.

    1975-01-01

    A new global ionospheric model was successfully implemented. The daytime portion of this model provides one-way ionospheric range corrections that compare favorably with those derived from the Mariner Venus/Mercury S- and X-band dual frequency Doppler data. For elevation angles, gamma higher than 30 deg and solar zenith angle less than 80 deg, this model provides calibrations accurate to a few centimeters. The calibrations provided by the nighttime model are also very reasonable. It is interesting to note that the daytime ionospheric calibrations derived from the current calibration scheme, DIEN/TIEN, are fairly close to those given by the new global model, especially in the temporal variations and thus the Doppler effects. The comparison between the nighttime model and DIEN/TIEN was based on the one-way ionospheric range corrections for three passes near the Mariner 9 encounter with Mars in 1971. They can differ by over 30%.

  3. Modelling the global coastal ocean.

    PubMed

    Holt, Jason; Harle, James; Proctor, Roger; Michel, Sylvain; Ashworth, Mike; Batstone, Crispian; Allen, Icarus; Holmes, Robert; Smyth, Tim; Haines, Keith; Bretherton, Dan; Smith, Gregory

    2009-03-13

    Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries. PMID:19087928

  4. Performance of JMA Earthquake Early Warning for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Wakayama, A.; Ishigaki, Y.; Doi, K.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation outlines the Earthquake Early Warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). EEW has been operational nationwide in Japan by JMA since October, 2007. For JMA EEW, the hypocenter is determined by a combination of several techniques, using approximately 1,100 stations from the JMA network and the Hi-net network of NIED; magnitude is mainly from maximum displacement amplitudes. JMA EEWs are updated as available data increases with elapsed time. Accordingly EEWs are issued repeatedly with improving accuracy for a single earthquake. JMA EEWs are divided into two grades depending on the expected intensities. The JMA intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements in which not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking are considered. The 10-degree JMA intensity scale rounds off the instrumental intensity value to the integer. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into two degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to ground motion that people can barely detect, and 7 is the upper limit. JMA EEWs are announced to general public when intensity 5-lower (or greater) is expected. The JMA EEW system was triggered for the Mw 9.0 earthquake when station OURI (138km from the epicenter) detected the initial P wave at 14:46:40.2 (Japan Standard Time). The first EEW, the first of 15 announcements, was issued 5.4 s later. The waveform started with small amplitude, which was comparable to noise level for displacement. The small amplitude does not indicate that the initial rupture of the Mw 9.0 event is large, and does not suggest a large magnitude event. By the fourth EEW, 8.6 s after the first trigger, the expected intensity exceeded the criteria of the warning to the general public. JMA issued the fourth EEW announcements to the general public of the Tohoku district, and then the warning was automatically broadcast

  5. Class Room Exercises Using JMA-59-Type Seismograms for Earthquake Study at High-School Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Y.; Furuta, S.; Hirota, N.

    2013-12-01

    The JMA-59-type electromagnetic seismograph was the standard seismograph for routine observations by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from the 1960's to the 1990's. Some features of those seismograms include 1) displacement wave records (electrically integrated from a velocity output by a moving-coil-type sensor), 2) ink records on paper (analog recording with time marks), 3) continuous drum recording for 12 h, and 4) lengthy operation time over several decades. However, the digital revolution in recording systems during the 1990's made these analog features obsolete, and their abundant and bulky paper-based records were stacked and sometimes disregarded in the library of every observatory. Interestingly, from an educational aspect, the disadvantages of these old-fashioned systems become highly advantageous for educational or outreach purposes. The updated digital instrument is essentially a 'black-box,' not revealing its internal mechanisms and being too fast for observing its signal processes. While the old seismometers and recording systems have been disposed of long since, stacks of analog seismograms continue to languish in observatories' back rooms. In our study, we develop some classroom exercises for studying earthquakes at the mid- to high-school level using these analog seismograms. These exercises include 1) reading the features of seismic records, 2) measuring the S-P time, 3) converting the hypocentral distance from Omori's distance formula, 4) locating the epicenter/hypocenter using the S-P times of surrounding stations, and 5) estimating earthquake magnitude using the Tsuboi's magnitude formula. For this calculation we developed a 'nomogram'--a graphical paper calculator created using a Python-based freeware tool named 'PyNomo.' We tested many seismograms and established the following rules: 1) shallow earthquakes are appropriate for using the Tsuboi's magnitude formula; 2) there is no saturation at peak amplitude; 3) seismograms make it easy to

  6. Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodrum, A. W.

    1989-01-01

    GRAM series of four-dimensional atmospheric model validated by years of data. GRAM program, still available. More current are Gram 86, which includes atmospheric data from 1986 and runs on DEC VAX, and GRAM 88, which runs on IBM 3084. Program generates altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through atmosphere, and also useful for global circulation and diffusion studies.

  7. Global scale groundwater flow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  8. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  9. A Martian global groundwater model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Alan D.

    1991-01-01

    A global groundwater flow model was constructed for Mars to study hydrologic response under a variety of scenarios, improving and extending earlier simple cross sectional models. The model is capable of treating both steady state and transient flow as well as permeability that is anisotropic in the horizontal dimensions. A single near surface confining layer may be included (representing in these simulations a coherent permafrost layer). Furthermore, in unconfined flow, locations of complete saturation and seepage are determined. The flow model assumes that groundwater gradients are sufficiently low that DuPuit conditions are satisfied and the flow component perpendicular to the ground surface is negligible. The flow equations were solved using a finite difference method employing 10 deg spacing of latitude and longitude.

  10. Development of a Global Tropospheric Aerosol Chemical Transport Model MASINGAR and its Application to the Dust Storm Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, T. Y.

    2002-12-01

    We are developing a new three-dimensional aerosol chemical transport model coupled with the MRI/JMA98 GCM, named Model of Aerosol Species IN the Global AtmospheRe (MASINGAR), for the study of atmospheric aerosols and related trace species. MASINGAR treats four major aerosol species that include nss-sulfate, carbonaceous, mineral dust, and sea-salt aerosols. The model accounts for large-scale advective transport, subgrid-scale eddy diffusive and convective transport, surface emission and deposition, wet deposition, as well as chemical reactions. The advective transport is calculated using the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme. Parameterization of convective transport is based on the convective mass flux by Arakawa-Schubert scheme. The space and time resolution of the model are variable, with a standard resolution of T42 (2.8ox2.8o) and 30 levels (up to 0.8hPa). In addition, the model has a built-in four-dimensional data assimilation with assimilated meteorological field, which enables the model to perform a realistic simulation on a specific period and short-period forecast of aerosols. The model was applied to the numerical forecasting of dust storm in spring, 2002, when the first intensive observational period of Aeolian Dust Experiment on the Climatic impact (ADEC) project was conducted. The model simulation of mineral dust aerosol suggests that the synoptic scale aerosol events can be simulated by MASINGAR.

  11. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  12. Modeling the global mercury cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, R.J.M. |

    1995-12-01

    A model of the global Hg cycle is presented and applied to analyze modern Hg budgets and the link between the anthropogenic Hg emissions and historical changes in deposition as recorded in lake sediments and bogs. Terrestrial systems appear to have been the principal sink of anthropogenic Hg. However, transport into the ocean interior via mixing and scavenging is also a significant sink of Hg and likely has limited any anthropogenically-derived increase in Hg volatilization from the surface ocean to no more than 50% above natural levels. We also consider how both the increase in air pollutants during the industrial era and their recent decrease in North America may have affected atmospheric Hg scavenging and the resulting records of Hg deposition rates in lake and bog sediments.

  13. Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

  14. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  15. The global ionosphere thermosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, A. J.; Deng, Y.; Tóth, G.

    2006-05-01

    The recently created global ionosphere thermosphere model (GITM) is presented. GITM uses a three-dimensional spherical grid that can be stretched in both latitude and altitude, while having a fixed resolution in longitude. GITM is nontraditional in that it does not use a pressure-based coordinate system. Instead it uses an altitude-based grid and does not assume a hydrostatic solution. This allows the model to more realistically capture physics in the high-latitude region, where auroral heating is prevalent. The code can be run in a one-dimensional (1-D) or three-dimensional (3-D) mode. In 3-D mode, the modeling region is broken into blocks of equal size for parallelization. In 1-D mode, a single latitude and longitude is modeled by neglecting any horizontal transport or gradients, except in the ionospheric potential. GITM includes a modern advection solver and realistic source terms for the continuity, momentum, and energy equations. Each neutral species has a separate vertical velocity, with coupling of the velocities through a frictional term. The ion momentum equation is solved for assuming steady-state, taking into account the pressure, gravity, neutral winds, and external electric fields. GITM is an extremely flexible code—allowing different models of high-latitude electric fields, auroral particle precipitation, solar EUV inputs, and particle energy deposition to be used. The magnetic field can be represented by an ideal dipole magnetic field or a realistic APEX magnetic field. Many of the source terms can be controlled (switched on and off, or values set) by an easily readable input file. The initial state can be set in three different ways: (1) using an ideal atmosphere, where the user inputs the densities and temperature at the bottom of the atmosphere; (2) using MSIS and IRI; and (3) restarting from a previous run. A 3-D equinox run and a 3-D northern summer solstice run are presented. These simulations are compared with MSIS and IRI to show that the

  16. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  17. Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics in JMA-NHM Simulations Using Bin or Bulk Microphysical Schemes through Comparison with Cloud Radar Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iguchi, Takamichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Khain, Alexander P.; Saito, Kazuo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2012-01-01

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency NonhydrostaticModel (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborneW-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separatelyfor an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysicsschemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to theequivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). Ingeneral, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk modelsimulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves theresult of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the masssizeand sizeterminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snowaloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominanceof snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows thata correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introducedeven in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

  18. Web-Based Delivery System for Disaster Prevention Information Using a New Jma Dpi Xml Format and Amedas Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishio, M.; Mori, M.

    2012-07-01

    The Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) Data is used along with compound disaster information for a geographic information system (GIS) by integration into the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) disaster prevention information XML data. A JMA XML format is a next generation format that contains weather warnings, tsunami warnings, and earthquake information, etc. However, it is not possible to process it by reading disaster prevention information XML Data and AMeDAS Data directly to the GIS system. Therefore, development of a program that converts the data structure is important to consolidate a variety of disaster prevention information on the GIS system. Information on escape routes and evacuation sites, etc. were given as points for regional meteorological observation forecasts using AMeDAS Data by disaster prevention information XML data and integrating it where the disaster was generated, giving a range of expansion of damage and a damage level. There are two main aims; the first is to deliver these compound data of disaster prevention information XML data and AMeDAS Data via the Internet. The second aim is to provide GIS files (shapefile format) of these data to such as local governments for their individual analysis. This was furthermore confirmed to enable the construction of a system using WebGIS (Google Maps) and Open Source Software GIS to monitor disaster information at low cost.

  19. Global models of planet formation and evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mordasini, C.; Mollière, P.; Dittkrist, K.-M.; Jin, S.; Alibert, Y.

    2015-04-01

    Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of

  20. Global Resource Sharing: A Gateway Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Rush G.; Zhou, Peter X.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the Gateway Service Center of Chinese Journal Publications that was established at the University of Pittsburgh to deliver digital copies of Chinese journal articles. Discusses the gateway model for global resource sharing as one component of a global virtual library and considers copyright, access versus ownership, and future…

  1. Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME.

    PubMed

    Leadbetter, Susan J; Hort, Matthew C; Jones, Andrew R; Webster, Helen N; Draxler, Roland R

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition. PMID:24745690

  2. A model of global net ecosystem production

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, C.S.; Matson, P.A. ); Field, C.B.; Randerson, J. ); Vitousek, P.M.; Mooney, H.A. )

    1993-06-01

    We present an ecosystem modeling approach to resolve global climate and edaphic controls on seasonal NEP patterns. Global remote sensing, climate and land surface data sets are used as inputs to drive a terrestrial carbon cycle model at 1[degrees]lat/lon resolution. monthly net primary productivity (NPP) is calculated using surface radiation and NDVI to determine photosynthesis, which is subsequently adjusted by temperature, water and nitrogen stress factors. Total nitrogen availability is coupled to net mineralization rates from litter soil carbon pools. Soil respiration and NPP balance one another globally at around 60 Gt C yr[sup [minus]1]. The seasonal amplitude of global NEP is 1.2 Gt C. Although substantial month-to-month variation is observed for tropical forest areas, seasonal amplitude is driven globally by boreal and temperate forest ecosystems between 650 and 30[degrees] N latitude.

  3. Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2012-01-01

    A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

  4. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and also supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, the large natural groundwater storage provides a buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a transient global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013) combined with information about e.g. aquifer thickness and presence of less permeable, impermeable, and semi-impermeable layers. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with observations, from North America and Australia, resulting in a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively. This shows that it is feasible to build a global groundwater model using best available

  5. Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D. L.; Blocker, Rhonda; Justus, C. G.

    1993-01-01

    4D model provides atmospheric parameter values either automatically at positions along linear path or along any set of connected positions specified by user. Based on actual data, GRAM provides thermal wind shear for monthly mean winds, percent deviation from standard atmosphere, mean vertical wind, and perturbation data for each position.

  6. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and ModelGlobal Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation ModelGlobal Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  7. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  8. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  9. Comparison of global and regional ionospheric models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranner, H.-P.; Krauss, S.; Stangl, G.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling of the Earth's ionosphere means the description of the variability of the vertical TEC (Total Electron Content) in dependence of geographic latitude and longitude, height, diurnal and seasonal variation as well as solar activity. Within the project GIOMO (next Generation near real-time IOnospheric MOdels) the objectives are the identification and consolidation of improved ionospheric modelling technologies. The global models Klobuchar (GPS) and NeQuick (currently in use by EGNOS, in future used by Galileo) are compared to the IGS (International GNSS Service) Final GIM (Global Ionospheric Map). Additionally a RIM (Regional Ionospheric Map) for Europe provided by CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is investigated. Furthermore the OLG (Observatorium Lustbühel Graz) regional models are calculated for two test beds with different latitudes and extensions (Western Austria and the Aegean region). There are three different approaches, two RIMs are based on spherical harmonics calculated either from code or phase measurements and one RIM is based on a Taylor series expansion around a central point estimated from zero-difference observations. The benefits of regional models are the local flexibility using a dense network of GNSS stations. Near real-time parameters are provided within ten minutes after every clock hour. All models have been compared according to their general behavior, the ability to react upon extreme solar events and the robustness of estimation. A ranking of the different models showed a preference for the RIMs while the global models should be used within a fall-back strategy.

  10. Development of Global Magnetosphere Models of Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khurana, Krishan K.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of the proposal was to construct global magnetospheric models of Jupiter for the use of Jovian magnetospheric community. In the four years of the grant period we were able to achieve all of the stated science objectives. The work has resulted in: 1) A new structural model of Jovian current sheet; 2) Global thickness map of the current sheet; 3) Magnetic field models of the current sheet; 4) The global model of Jupiter's magnetospheric field including hinging and delay of the current sheet, sweepback of the magnetic field and the shielding field of the magnetopause. To accomplish our work, we assembled an exhaustive magnetic field data base from all of the spacecraft that have visited Jupiter (Pioneers 10 and 11, Voyagers 1 and 2, Ulysses and Galileo). The data were rotated into system III and JSM coordinates. We used the data at resolutions of 1 minute (for studies of the structure of the current sheet) and 10 minutes (for building the global model).

  11. Global model of the Gran Telescopio Canarias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro Lopez-Tarruella, F. Javier; Fernandez Ibarz, Jose M.

    2002-07-01

    During the conceptual design of the GTC (Gran Telescopio Canarias) it was suggested to develop a Global Model of the behaviour of the GTC system to be used as a tool for the system engineering. This Global Model should be a dynamical simulation capable to predict the pointing, tracking, guiding and image quality of the GTC system in several simulation scenarios depending on the behavior of each subsystem. It was decided to develop the simulation in the Matlab/Simulink« environment. The kernel of the Global Model was a Simulink® model of the telescope mechanics. The model included the structural dynamics, control loops of the main axis (azimuth, elevation and rotators), and load models (wind, gravity, seism). Each component included error sources inherent to it (cogging and ripple on motors, encoding errors, bearing run-out, etc). The model permitted large rotations in elevation axis, which was necessary to test pointing performances. A specific simulation was developed within the project office for the analysis of the image quality of the optical system. It includes polishing defects of the optical surfaces (M1 segments, M2 and M3), low spatial frequency distortions of the optical surfaces (due to fabrication, gravity of instability) and misalignment between the primary mirror segments.

  12. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Volume Three. Documentation on the Government's Global Sectoral Models: The Government's "Global Model."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barney, Gerald O., Ed.

    The third volume of the Global 2000 study presents basic information ("documentation") on the long-term sectoral models used by the U.S. government to project global trends in population, resources, and the environment. Its threefold purposes are: (1) to present all this basic information in a single volume, (2) to provide an explanation, in the…

  13. Development towards a global operational aerosol consensus: basic climatological characteristics of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sessions, W. R.; Reid, J. S.; Benedetti, A.; Colarco, P. R.; da Silva, A.; Lu, S.; Sekiyama, T.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Baldasano, J. M.; Basart, S.; Brooks, M. E.; Eck, T. F.; Iredell, M.; Hansen, J. A.; Jorba, O. C.; Juang, H.-M. H.; Lynch, P.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Moorthi, S.; Mulcahy, J.; Pradhan, Y.; Razinger, M.; Sampson, C. B.; Wang, J.; Westphal, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Here we present the first steps in developing a global multi-model aerosol forecasting ensemble intended for eventual operational and basic research use. Drawing from members of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) latest generation of quasi-operational aerosol models, 5-day aerosol optical thickness (AOT) forecasts are analyzed for December 2011 through November 2012 from four institutions: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and Naval Research Lab/Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NRL/FNMOC). For dust, we also include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Geospatial Advisory Committee (NOAA NGAC) product in our analysis. The Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and UK Met Office dust products have also recently become members of ICAP, but have insufficient data to be included in this analysis period. A simple consensus ensemble of member and mean AOT fields for modal species (e.g., fine and coarse mode, and a separate dust ensemble) is used to create the ICAP Multi-Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME). The ICAP-MME is run daily at 00:00 UTC for 6-hourly forecasts out to 120 h. Basing metrics on comparisons to 21 regionally representative Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites, all models generally captured the basic aerosol features of the globe. However, there is an overall AOT low bias among models, particularly for high AOT events. Biomass burning regions have the most diversity in seasonal average AOT. The Southern Ocean, though low in AOT, nevertheless also has high diversity. With regard to root mean square error (RMSE), as expected the ICAP-MME placed first over all models worldwide, and was typically first or second in ranking against all models at individual sites. These results are encouraging; furthermore, as more global operational aerosol models come online, we expect their inclusion in a robust

  14. An online educational atmospheric global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navarro, T.; Schott, C.; Forget, F.

    2015-10-01

    As part of online courses on exoplanets of Observatoire de Paris, an online tool designed to vizualise outputs of the Laboratoire de Métérologie Dynamique (LMD) Global Circulation Model (GCM) for various atmospheric circulation regimes has been developed. It includes the possibility for students to visualize 1D and 2D plots along with animations of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, winds, surface pressure, mass flux, etc... from a state-of-the-art model.

  15. Studying complex chemistries using PLASIMO's global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koelman, PMJ; Tadayon Mousavi, S.; Perillo, R.; Graef, WAAD; Mihailova, DB; van Dijk, J.

    2016-02-01

    The Plasimo simulation software is used to construct a Global Model of a CO2 plasma. A DBD plasma between two coaxial cylinders is considered, which is driven by a triangular input power pulse. The plasma chemistry is studied during this power pulse and in the afterglow. The model consists of 71 species that interact in 3500 reactions. Preliminary results from the model are presented. The model has been validated by comparing its results with those presented in Kozák et al. (Plasma Sources Science and Technology 23(4) p. 045004, 2014). A good qualitative agreement has been reached; potential sources of remaining discrepancies are extensively discussed.

  16. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  17. Modeling the Martian Atmosphere with the LMD Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forget, F.; Millour, E.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lebonnois, S.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Meslin, P.-Y.; Montabone, L.; Spiga, A.; Hourdin, F.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gilli, G.

    2008-11-01

    The Global Climate Model developed at LMD (Paris) in collaboration with IAA (Spain), AOPP and the OU (UK) has been improved. It is used for many applications (water, dust, CO2, radon cycles, photochemistry, thermosphere, ionosphere, etc.).

  18. Modeling global lightning distributions in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Colin; Rind, David

    1994-01-01

    A general circulation model (GCM) is used to model global lightning distributions and frequencies. Both total and cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies are modeled using parameterizations that relate the depth of convective clouds to lightning frequencies. The model's simulations of lightning distributions in time and space show good agreement with available observations. The model's annual mean climatology shows a global lightning frequency of 77 flashes per second, with cloud-to-ground lightning making up 25% of the total. The maximum lightning activity in the GCM occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with approximately 91% of all lightning occurring over continental and coastal regions.

  19. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  20. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global scale groundwater model (run at 6' as dynamic steady state) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The aquifer schematization and properties were based on available global datasets of lithology and transmissivities combined with estimated aquifer thickness of an upper unconfined aquifer. The model is forced with outputs from the land-surface model PCR-GLOBWB, specifically with net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed variation in saturated conductivity causes most of the groundwater level variations. Simulated groundwater heads were validated against reported piezometer observations. The validation showed that groundwater depths are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional scale groundwater patterns and flowpaths confirm the relevance of taking lateral groundwater flow into account in GHMs. Flowpaths show inter-basin groundwater flow that can be a significant part of a basins water budget and helps to sustain river baseflow, explicitly during times of droughts. Also important aquifer systems are recharged by inter-basin groundwater flows that positively affect water

  1. Global optimization of bilinear engineering design models

    SciTech Connect

    Grossmann, I.; Quesada, I.

    1994-12-31

    Recently Quesada and Grossmann have proposed a global optimization algorithm for solving NLP problems involving linear fractional and bilinear terms. This model has been motivated by a number of applications in process design. The proposed method relies on the derivation of a convex NLP underestimator problem that is used within a spatial branch and bound search. This paper explores the use of alternative bounding approximations for constructing the underestimator problem. These are applied in the global optimization of problems arising in different engineering areas and for which different relaxations are proposed depending on the mathematical structure of the models. These relaxations include linear and nonlinear underestimator problems. Reformulations that generate additional estimator functions are also employed. Examples from process design, structural design, portfolio investment and layout design are presented.

  2. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-01-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  3. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-04-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  4. Global Urbanization Modeling Supported by Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Elvidge, C.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization, one of the major human induced land cover and land use change, has profound impacts on the Earth system, and plays important roles in a variety of processes such as biodiversity loss, water and carbon cycle, and climate change. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important in both scientific and policy-making communities. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light data (NTL) provide a potential way to map urban area and its dynamics economically and timely. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the DMSP/OLS NTL data. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the derived optimal thresholds and the reliability of the cluster-based method. Compared to existing threshold techniques, our method reduces the over- and under-estimation issue, when mapping urban extent over a large area. Using this cluster-based method, we built new global maps of 1-km urban extent from the NTL data (Figure 1) and evaluated its temporal dynamics from 1992 to 2013. Supported by the derived global urban maps and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model and projected future urban expansion.

  5. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2008-05-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  6. Skill of regional and global model forecast over Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Prashant; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The global model analysis and forecast have a significant impact on the regional model predictions, as global model provides the initial and lateral boundary condition to regional model. This study addresses an important question whether the regional model can improve the short-range weather forecast as compared to the global model. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used in this study to evaluate the performance of global and regional models over the Indian region. A 24-h temperature and specific humidity forecast from the NCEP GFS model show less error compared to WRF model forecast. Rainfall prediction is improved over the Indian landmass when WRF model is used for rainfall forecast. Moreover, the results showed that high-resolution global model analysis (GFS4) improved the regional model forecast as compared to low-resolution global model analysis (GFS3).

  7. Global modeling of fresh surface water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Eikelboom, T.; van Vliet, M. T.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Temperature determines a range of water physical properties, the solubility of oxygen and other gases and acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing chemical reaction rates, phytoplankton and zooplankton composition and the presence or absence of pathogens. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism, tolerance to parasites, diseases and pollution and life history. Compared to statistical approaches, physically-based models of surface water temperature have the advantage that they are robust in light of changes in flow regime, river morphology, radiation balance and upstream hydrology. Such models are therefore better suited for projecting the effects of global change on water temperature. Till now, physically-based models have only been applied to well-defined fresh water bodies of limited size (e.g., lakes or stream segments), where the numerous parameters can be measured or otherwise established, whereas attempts to model water temperature over larger scales has thus far been limited to regression type of models. Here, we present a first attempt to apply a physically-based model of global fresh surface water temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modelled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by short and long-wave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice-formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We used the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global fresh surface water temperature at daily time steps on a 0.5x0.5 degree grid for the period 1970-2000. Meteorological forcing was obtained from the CRU data set, downscaled to daily values with ECMWF

  8. Improving global health education: development of a Global Health Competency Model.

    PubMed

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A; Weist, Elizabeth M; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R; Klag, Michael J; Rodriguez Lopez, Mario Henry; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C

    2014-03-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale. PMID:24445206

  9. Improving Global Health Education: Development of a Global Health Competency Model

    PubMed Central

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A.; Weist, Elizabeth M.; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E.; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R.; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R.; Klag, Michael J.; Lopez, Mario Henry Rodriguez; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C.

    2014-01-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale. PMID:24445206

  10. Statistical modeling of global soil NOx emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Xiaoyuan; Ohara, Toshimasa; Akimoto, Hajime

    2005-09-01

    On the basis of field measurements of NOx emissions from soils, we developed a statistical model to describe the influences of soil organic carbon (SOC) content, soil pH, land-cover type, climate, and nitrogen input on NOx emission. While also considering the effects of soil temperature, soil moisture change-induced pulse emission, and vegetation fire, we simulated NOx emissions from global soils at resolutions of 0.5° and 6 hours. Canopy reduction was included in both data processing and flux simulation. NOx emissions were positively correlated with SOC content and negatively correlated with soil pH. Soils in dry or temperate regions had higher NOx emission potentials than soils in cold or tropical regions. Needleleaf forest and agricultural soils had high NOx emissions. The annual NOx emission from global soils was calculated to be 7.43 Tg N, decreasing to 4.97 Tg N after canopy reduction. Global averages of nitrogen fertilizer-induced emission ratios were 1.16% above soil and 0.70% above canopy. Soil moisture change-induced pulse emission contributed about 4% to global annual NOx emission, and the effect of vegetation fire on soil NOx emission was negligible.

  11. GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duvall, Aleta; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

    2005-01-01

    Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

  12. [Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

    PubMed

    Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project. PMID:24765870

  13. A Substance Flow Model for Global Phosphorus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaccari, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    A system-based substance flow model (SFM) for phosphorus is developed based on the global phosphorus substance flow analysis (SFA) of Cordell et al (2009). The model is based strictly on mass balance considerations. It predicts the sensitivity of phosphorus consumption to various interventions intended to conserve reserves, as well as interactions among these efforts, allowing a comparison of their impacts on phosphorus demand. The interventions include control of phosphorus losses from soil erosion, food production and food waste, or phosphorus recycling such as from animal manure or human waste.

  14. Cooperative global security programs modeling & simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Briand, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    The national laboratories global security programs implement sustainable technical solutions for cooperative nonproliferation, arms control, and physical security systems worldwide. To help in the development and execution of these programs, a wide range of analytical tools are used to model, for example, synthetic tactical environments for assessing infrastructure protection initiatives and tactics, systematic approaches for prioritizing nuclear and biological threat reduction opportunities worldwide, and nuclear fuel cycle enrichment and spent fuel management for nuclear power countries. This presentation will describe how these models are used in analyses to support the Obama Administration's agenda and bilateral/multinational treaties, and ultimately, to reduce weapons of mass destruction and terrorism threats through international technical cooperation.

  15. Towards a Global Upper Mantle Attenuation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaoglu, Haydar; Romanowicz, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Global anelastic tomography is crucial for addressing the nature of heterogeneity in the Earth's interior. The intrinsic attenuation manifests itself through dispersion and amplitude decay. These are contaminated by elastic effects such as (de)focusing and scattering. Therefore, mapping anelasticity accurately requires separation of elastic effects from the anelastic ones. To achieve this, a possible approach is to try and first predict elastic effects through the computation of seismic waveforms in a high resolution 3D elastic model, which can now be achieved accurately using numerical wavefield computations. Building upon the recent construction of such a whole mantle elastic and radially anisotropic shear velocity model (SEMUCB_WM1, French and Romanowicz, 2014), which will be used as starting model, our goal is to develop a higher resolution 3D attenuation model of the upper mantle based on full waveform inversion. As in the development of SEMUCB_WM1, forward modeling will be performed using the spectral element method, while the inverse problem will be treated approximately, using normal mode asymptotics. Both fundamental and overtone time domain long period waveforms (T>60s) will be used from a dataset of over 200 events observed at several hundred stations globally. Here we present preliminary results of synthetic tests, exploring different iterative inversion strategies.

  16. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    SciTech Connect

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-07-08

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.

  17. Magnetohydrodynamic boundary conditions for global models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, T. G.

    1988-01-01

    Boundary conditions in the ionosphere and the upstream solar wind are important in determining the dynamics of global magnetohydrodynamic models of the magnetosphere. It is generally recognized that the orientation of the magnetic field in the upstream solar wind strongly modulates the rate of energy input into the magnetosphere by magnetic reconnection. However, other aspects of the upstream boundary conditions may determine whether the reconnection occurs in a patchy manner, as in flux transfer events, or in a global manner, as in the Paschmann et al. (1979) events. Ionospheric boundary conditions should also affect the reconnection process. For example, ionospheric line-tying can cause x-line motion in the outer magnetosphere. If it is assumed that auroras occur on field lines mapping to x-lines, then auroral motions are different than the local convective motion of the plasma in which they occur. Global magnetohydrodynamic models which incorporate both magnetospheric reconnection and ionospheric convection could be used to investigate the effect of reconnection and convection upon dayside and nightside auroral motions during the course of a magnetic substorm.

  18. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2007-11-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  19. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  20. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  1. Supermodeling With A Global Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiegerinck, Wim; Burgers, Willem; Selten, Frank

    2013-04-01

    In weather and climate prediction studies it often turns out to be the case that the multi-model ensemble mean prediction has the best prediction skill scores. One possible explanation is that the major part of the model error is random and is averaged out in the ensemble mean. In the standard multi-model ensemble approach, the models are integrated in time independently and the predicted states are combined a posteriori. Recently an alternative ensemble prediction approach has been proposed in which the models exchange information during the simulation and synchronize on a common solution that is closer to the truth than any of the individual model solutions in the standard multi-model ensemble approach or a weighted average of these. This approach is called the super modeling approach (SUMO). The potential of the SUMO approach has been demonstrated in the context of simple, low-order, chaotic dynamical systems. The information exchange takes the form of linear nudging terms in the dynamical equations that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. With a suitable choice of the connection strengths the models synchronize on a common solution that is indeed closer to the true system than any of the individual model solutions without nudging. This approach is called connected SUMO. An alternative approach is to integrate a weighted averaged model, weighted SUMO. At each time step all models in the ensemble calculate the tendency, these tendencies are weighted averaged and the state is integrated one time step into the future with this weighted averaged tendency. It was shown that in case the connected SUMO synchronizes perfectly, the connected SUMO follows the weighted averaged trajectory and both approaches yield the same solution. In this study we pioneer both approaches in the context of a global, quasi-geostrophic, three-level atmosphere model that is capable of simulating quite realistically the extra

  2. Mycorrhizal fungi and global land surface models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brzostek, E. R.; Fisher, J. B.; Shi, M.; Phillips, R.

    2013-12-01

    In the current generation of Land Surface Models (LSMs), the representation of coupled carbon (C) and nutrient cycles does not account for allocation of C by plants to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for limiting nutrients. Given that the amount of C transferred to mycorrhizae can exceed 20% of net primary production (NPP), mycorrhizae can supply over half of the nitrogen (N) needed to support NPP, and that large majority of plants form associations with mycorrhizae; integrating these mechanisms into LSMs may significantly alter our understanding of the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating climate change. Here, we present results from the integration of a mycorrhizal framework into a cutting-edge global plant nitrogen model -- Fixation & Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN; Fisher et al., 2010) -- that can be coupled into existing LSMs. In this mycorrhizal framework, the C cost of N acquisition varies as a function of mycorrhizal type with: (1) plants that support arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) benefiting when N is plentiful and (2) plants that support ectomycorrhizae (ECM) benefiting when N is limiting. At the plot scale (15 x 15m), the My-FUN model improved predictions of retranslocation, N uptake, and the amount of C transferred into the soil relative to the base model across 45 plots that vary in mycorrhizal type in Indiana, USA. At the ecosystem scale, when we coupled this new framework into the Community Land Model (CLM-CN), the model estimated lower C uptake than the base model and more accurately predicted C uptake at the Morgan Monroe State Forest AmeriFlux site. These results suggest that the inclusion of a mycorrhizal framework into LSMs will enhance our ability to predict feedbacks between global change and the terrestrial biosphere.

  3. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  4. Global Exposure Modelling of Semivolatile Organic Compounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guglielmo, F.; Lammel, G.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    2008-12-01

    Organic compounds which are persistent and toxic as the agrochemicals γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH, lindane) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) pose a hazard for the ecosystems. These compounds are semivolatile, hence multicompartmental substances and subject to long-range transport (LRT) in atmosphere and ocean. Being lipophilic, they accumulate in exposed organism tissues and biomagnify along food chains. The multicompartmental global fate and LRT of DDT and lindane in the atmosphere and ocean have been studied using application data for 1980, on a decadal scale using a model based on the coupling of atmosphere and (for the first time for these compounds) ocean General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and MPI-OM). The model system encompasses furthermore 2D terrestrial compartments (soil and vegetation) and sea ice, a fully dynamic atmospheric aerosol (HAM) module and an ocean biogeochemistry module (HAMOCC5). Large mass fractions of the compounds are found in soil. Lindane is also found in comparable amount in ocean. DDT has the longest residence time in almost all compartments. The sea ice compartment locally almost inhibits volatilization from the sea. The air/sea exchange is also affected , up to a reduction of 35 % for DDT by partitioning to the organic phases (suspended and dissolved particulate matter) in the global oceans. Partitioning enhances vertical transport in the sea. Ocean dynamics are found to be more significant for vertical transport than sinking associated with particulate matter. LRT in the global environment is determined by the fast atmospheric circulation. Net meridional transport taking place in the ocean is locally effective mostly via western boundary currents, upon applications at mid- latitudes. The pathways of the long-lived semivolatile organic compounds studied include a sequence of several cycles of volatilisation, transport in the atmosphere, deposition and transport in the ocean (multihopping substances). Multihopping is

  5. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  6. Heterogeneous Chemistry in Global Chemistry Transport Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stadtler, Scarlet; Simpson, David; Schultz, Martin; Bott, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The impact of six tropospheric heterogeneous reactions on ozone and nitrogen species was studied using two chemical transport models EMEP MSC-W and ECHAM6-HAMMOZ. Since heterogeneous reactions depend on reactant concentrations (in this study these are N_2O_5, NO_3, NO_2, O_3, HNO_3, HO_2) and aerosol surface area S_a, the modeled surface area of both models was compared to a satellite product retrieving the surface area. This comparison shows a good agreement in global pattern and especially the capability of both models to capture the extreme aerosol loadings in East Asia. Further, the impact of the heterogeneous reactions was evaluated by the simulation of a reference run containing all heterogeneous reactions and several sensitivity runs. One reaction was turned off in each sensitivity run to compare it with the reference run. As previously shown, the analysis of the sensitivity runs shows that the globally most important heterogeneous reaction is the one of N_2O_5. Nevertheless, NO_2, NO_3, HNO3 and HO2 heterogeneous reactions gain relevance particular in East China due to presence of high NOx concentrations and high Sa in the same region. The heterogeneous reaction of O3 itself on dust is compared to the other heterogeneous reactions of minor relevance. Evaluation of the models with northern hemispheric ozone surface observations yields a better agreement of the models with observations when the heterogeneous reactions are incorporated. Impacts of emission changes on the importance of the heterogeneous chemistry will be discussed.

  7. Nasadem Global Elevation Model: Methods and Progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippen, R.; Buckley, S.; Agram, P.; Belz, E.; Gurrola, E.; Hensley, S.; Kobrick, M.; Lavalle, M.; Martin, J.; Neumann, M.; Nguyen, Q.; Rosen, P.; Shimada, J.; Simard, M.; Tung, W.

    2016-06-01

    NASADEM is a near-global elevation model that is being produced primarily by completely reprocessing the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) radar data and then merging it with refined ASTER GDEM elevations. The new and improved SRTM elevations in NASADEM result from better vertical control of each SRTM data swath via reference to ICESat elevations and from SRTM void reductions using advanced interferometric unwrapping algorithms. Remnant voids will be filled primarily by GDEM3, but with reduction of GDEM glitches (mostly related to clouds) and therefore with only minor need for secondary sources of fill.

  8. Robust calibration of a global aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, L.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C.

    2013-12-01

    Comparison of models and observations is vital for evaluating how well computer models can simulate real world processes. However, many current methods are lacking in their assessment of the model uncertainty, which introduces questions regarding the robustness of the observationally constrained model. In most cases, models are evaluated against observations using a single baseline simulation considered to represent the models' best estimate. The model is then improved in some way so that its comparison to observations is improved. Continuous adjustments in such a way may result in a model that compares better to observations but there may be many compensating features which make prediction with the newly calibrated model difficult to justify. There may also be some model outputs whose comparison to observations becomes worse in some regions/seasons as others improve. In such cases calibration cannot be considered robust. We present details of the calibration of a global aerosol model, GLOMAP, in which we consider not just a single model setup but a perturbed physics ensemble with 28 uncertain parameters. We first quantify the uncertainty in various model outputs (CCN, CN) for the year 2008 and use statistical emulation to identify which of the 28 parameters contribute most to this uncertainty. We then compare the emulated model simulations in the entire parametric uncertainty space to observations. Regions where the entire ensemble lies outside the error of the observations indicate structural model error or gaps in current knowledge which allows us to target future research areas. Where there is some agreement with the observations we use the information on the sources of the model uncertainty to identify geographical regions in which the important parameters are similar. Identification of regional calibration clusters helps us to use information from observation rich regions to calibrate regions with sparse observations and allow us to make recommendations for

  9. A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Raymond J.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5RJ. The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by Cmax)(Delta)t/(Deltax less than 1 where Cmax is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is Cw and the flow speed is Cf, Cmax = Cw + Cf. Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a new MHD model that will be able to compute

  10. A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, Raymond J.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5R(sub J). The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by C(sub max)(Delta)t/(Delta)x less than 1 where C(sub max) is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is C(sub w) and the flow speed is C(sub f), C(sub max) = C(sub w) + C(sub f). Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a

  11. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  12. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  13. Global quantitative modeling of chromatin factor interactions.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G

    2014-03-01

    Chromatin is the driver of gene regulation, yet understanding the molecular interactions underlying chromatin factor combinatorial patterns (or the "chromatin codes") remains a fundamental challenge in chromatin biology. Here we developed a global modeling framework that leverages chromatin profiling data to produce a systems-level view of the macromolecular complex of chromatin. Our model ultilizes maximum entropy modeling with regularization-based structure learning to statistically dissect dependencies between chromatin factors and produce an accurate probability distribution of chromatin code. Our unsupervised quantitative model, trained on genome-wide chromatin profiles of 73 histone marks and chromatin proteins from modENCODE, enabled making various data-driven inferences about chromatin profiles and interactions. We provided a highly accurate predictor of chromatin factor pairwise interactions validated by known experimental evidence, and for the first time enabled higher-order interaction prediction. Our predictions can thus help guide future experimental studies. The model can also serve as an inference engine for predicting unknown chromatin profiles--we demonstrated that with this approach we can leverage data from well-characterized cell types to help understand less-studied cell type or conditions. PMID:24675896

  14. Modeling Nitrogen Isotopes in the Global Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somes, C.; Schmittner, A.

    2008-12-01

    The nitrogen isotopic signal measured in marine sediments has the potential to be a valuable paleoceanographic proxy. It captures the response of different biological processes in the marine ecosystem including photosynthesis, nitrogen fixation, denitrification as well as processes within the food chain. A simple marine ecosystem model that includes the interactive cycling of nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen is augmented to record nitrogen isotopes in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. New nitrogen isotopic tracers are employed at all trophic levels of the ecosystem. This includes the δ15N of nitrate, both classes of phytoplankton (nitrogen fixers and all other phytoplankton), zooplankton, and detritus. Despite a few shortcomings, it is shown that the nitrogen isotope model can capture the major trends observed in the modern climate. The ability to model nitrogen isotopes in a global coupled ocean- atmosphere-sea ice-ecosystem model gives us a unique opportunity to directly infer what physical and biological changes in the climate system are driving the δ15N signal on spatial and temporal scales. This is a valuable tool giving us tremendous insight on how to interpret the nitrogen isotopic signal.

  15. Global Reference Atmospheric Model and Trace Constituents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C.; Johnson, D.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of the Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR Intemationa1 Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). MAP data in GRAM are augmented by a specially-derived longitude variation climatology. Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH, and CO2. Water vapor in GRAM is based on a combination of GUACA, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL), and NASA Langley Research Center climatologies. Other constituents below 120 km are based on a combination of AFGL and h4AP/CIRA climatologies. This report presents results of comparisons between GRAM Constituent concentrations and those provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology of Summers (NRL,/MR/7641-93-7416, 1993). GRAM and NRL concentrations were compared for seven species (CH4, CO, CO2, H2O, N2O, O2, and O3) for months January, April, July, and October, over height range 0-115 km, and latitudes -90deg to + 90deg at 10deg increments. Average GRAM-NRL correlations range from 0.878 (for CO) to 0.975 (for O3), with an average over all seven species of 0.936 (standard deviation 0.049).

  16. Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos.

    PubMed

    Mangiarotti, S; Coudret, R; Drapeau, L; Jarlan, L

    2012-10-01

    Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincaré section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rössler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor. PMID:23214661

  17. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  18. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  19. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not components of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.

  20. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore » of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  1. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-12-31

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs.

  2. Global tectonics from mantle convection models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coltice, N.

    2015-12-01

    The motions of the surface of the Earth are described using the theory of Plate Tectonics. Despite the fact that this theory has shaped modern geosciences it has some limitations, and among them the impossibility to evaluate the forces at the origin of the surface displacements and deformations. Hence important questions remain difficult to solve like the origin of the sizes of plates, forces driving mountain building or supercontinent dispersal... Tremendous progresses have been made in the past 15 years in mantle convection modelling. Especially, modern convection codes can solve for motion equations with complex material properties. Since the early 2000's, the development of pseudo-plastic rheologies contributed to produce convection models with plate-like behaviour: plates naturally emerge and interact with the flow in a self-organized manner. Using such models in 3D spherical geometry (computed with StagYY - Tackley, 2008), I will show that important questions on the global tectonics of the planet can be addressed now: the distribution of seafloor ages, the distribution of plate area, the lifetime of small and large plates or modes of plate reorganizations. Tackley, P.J., Modellng compressible mantle convection with large viscosity contrasts in a three-dimensional spherical shell using the yin-yang grid, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter, 171, 7-18 (2008).

  3. A global electric circuit model within a community climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, G. M.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Thayer, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    To determine the complex dependencies of currents and electric fields within the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) on the underlying physics of the atmosphere, a new modeling framework of the GEC has been developed for use within global circulation models. Specifically, the Community Earth System Modeling framework has been utilized. A formulation of atmospheric conductivity based on ion production and loss mechanisms (including galactic cosmic rays, radon, clouds, and aerosols), conduction current sources, and ionospheric potential changes due to the influence of external current systems are included. This paper presents a full description of the calculation of the electric fields and currents within the model, which now includes several advancements to GEC modeling as it incorporates many processes calculated individually in previous articles into a consistent modeling framework. This framework uniquely incorporates effects from the troposphere up to the ionosphere within a single GEC model. The incorporation of a magnetospheric potential, which is generated by a separate magnetospheric current system, acts to modulate or enhance the surface level electric fields at high-latitude locations. This produces a distinct phasing signature with the GEC potential that is shown to depend on the observation location around the globe. Lastly, the model output for Vostok and Concordia, two high-latitude locations, is shown to agree with the observational data obtained at these sites over the same time period.

  4. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1998-01-01

    The coronal magnetic field defines the structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, the regions of fast and slow solar wind, and the most likely sites of coronal mass ejections. There are few measurements of the magnetic fields in the corona, but the line-of-sight component of the global magnetic fields in the photosphere have been routinely measured for many years (for example, at Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak). The SOI/MDI instrument is now providing high-resolution full-disk magnetograms several times a day. Understanding the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere requires accurately mapping the measured photospheric magnetic field into the corona and outward. Ideally, a model should not only extrapolate the magnetic field, but should self-consistently reconstruct both the plasma and magnetic fields in the corona and solar wind. Support from our NASA SR&T contract has allowed us to develop three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona that incorporate observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. These calculations not only describe the magnetic field in the corona and interplanetary spice, but also predict the plasma properties as well. Our computations thus far have been successful in reproducing many aspects of both coronal and interplanetary data, including the structure of the streamer belt, the location of coronal hole boundaries, and the position and shape of the heliospheric current sheet. The most widely used technique for extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field into the corona and heliosphere are potential field models, such as the potential field source-surface model (PFSS),and the potential field current-sheet (PFCS) model

  5. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    SciTech Connect

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  6. Dynamic Global Forest and Agriculture Model (D-GFAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    D-GFAM was created by introduction of aggregate crop and livestock sectors to the Global Timber Model. D-GFAM maximizes net present value of global welfare in the forestry, crop, and livestock sectors by choosing outputs, land areas and inputs. Global consumption for each product...

  7. A DATA-DRIVEN MODEL FOR THE GLOBAL CORONAL EVOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    Feng Xueshang; Jiang Chaowei; Xiang Changqing; Zhao Xuepu; Wu, S. T. E-mail: cwjiang@spaceweather.ac.cn E-mail: xpzhao@sun.stanford.edu

    2012-10-10

    This work is devoted to the construction of a data-driven model for the study of the dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetic field. The data-driven model consists of a surface flux transport (SFT) model and a global three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) coronal model. The SFT model is employed to produce the global time-varying and self-consistent synchronic snapshots of the photospheric magnetic field as the input to drive our 3D numerical global coronal AMR-CESE-MHD model on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the 3D global coronal model are coupled through the boundary condition of the projected characteristic method. Numerical results of the coronal evolution from 1996 September 4 to October 29 provide a good comparison with multiply observed coronal images.

  8. A Data-driven Model for the Global Coronal Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Xiang, Changqing; Zhao, Xuepu; Wu, S. T.

    2012-10-01

    This work is devoted to the construction of a data-driven model for the study of the dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetic field. The data-driven model consists of a surface flux transport (SFT) model and a global three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) coronal model. The SFT model is employed to produce the global time-varying and self-consistent synchronic snapshots of the photospheric magnetic field as the input to drive our 3D numerical global coronal AMR-CESE-MHD model on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the 3D global coronal model are coupled through the boundary condition of the projected characteristic method. Numerical results of the coronal evolution from 1996 September 4 to October 29 provide a good comparison with multiply observed coronal images.

  9. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1997-01-01

    Under this contract, we have continued our investigations of the large scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. These computations have also formed the basis for studies of coronal mass ejections (CMES) using realistic coronal configurations. We have developed a technique for computing realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. To perform computations that can be compared with specific observations, it is necessary to incorporate solar observations into the boundary conditions. We have used the Wilcox Solar Observatory synoptic maps (collected during a solar rotation by daily measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field at central meridian) to specify the radial magnetic field (B,) at the photosphere. For the initial condition, we use a potential magnetic field consistent with the specified distribution of B, at the lower boundary, and a wind solution consistent with the specified plasma density and temperature at the solar surface. Together this initial condition forms a (non-equilibrium) approximation of the state of the solar corona for the time-dependent MHD computation. The MHD equations are then integrated in time to steady state. Here we describe solutions relevant to a recent solar eclipse, as well as Ulysses observations. We have also developed a model configuration of solar minimum, useful for studying CME initiation and propagation.

  10. Global Nonlinear Parametric Modeling with Application to F-16 Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1997-01-01

    A global nonlinear parametric modeling technique is described and demonstrated. The technique uses multivariate orthogonal modeling functions generated from the data to determine nonlinear model structure, then expands each retained modeling function into an ordinary multivariate polynomial. The final model form is a finite multivariate power series expansion for the dependent variable in terms of the independent variables. Partial derivatives of the identified models can be used to assemble globally valid linear parameter varying models. The technique is demonstrated by identifying global nonlinear parametric models for nondimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients from a subsonic wind tunnel database for the F-16 fighter aircraft. Results show less than 10% difference between wind tunnel aerodynamic data and the nonlinear parameterized model for a simulated doublet maneuver at moderate angle of attack. Analysis indicated that the global nonlinear parametric models adequately captured the multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic functional dependence.

  11. Global Nonlinear Parametric Modeling with Application to F-16 Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1998-01-01

    A global nonlinear parametric modeling technique is described and demonstrated. The technique uses multivariate orthogonal modeling functions generated from the data to determine nonlinear model structure, then expands each retained modeling function into an ordinary multivariate polynomial. The final model form is a finite multivariate power series expansion for the dependent variable in terms of the independent variables. Partial derivatives of the identified models can be used to assemble globally valid linear parameter varying models. The technique is demonstrated by identifying global nonlinear parametric models for nondimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients from a subsonic wind tunnel database for the F-16 fighter aircraft. Results show less than 10% difference between wind tunnel aerodynamic data and the nonlinear parameterized model for a simulated doublet maneuver at moderate angle of attack. Analysis indicated that the global nonlinear parametric models adequately captured the multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic functional dependence.

  12. Global emissions inventories to aid atmospheric modelers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graedel, T. E.

    Computer projections of changes in global atmospheric chemistry could become more accurate and more easily compared with the availability of standard global emissions inventories. Starting in 1994, the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) began to finalize gridded global emissions inventories and distribute them to atmospheric scientists. GEIA operates under the auspices of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project, a cooperative effort of several hundred atmospheric scientists from more than 30 countries. The purpose of the IGAC Project is to measure, understand, and predict changes in global atmospheric chemistry, particularly those contributing to global problems such as acid rain, depletion of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse warming, and increased oxidant levels that damage biota.A 1992 survey by participants in the GEIA project [Graedel et al., 1993] showed that suitable emissions inventories are rarely available. The chlorofluorocarbon inventory, regarded as well quantified, was unavailable in gridded form. Inventories for CO2, CH4, NOx, SO2, reduced sulfur, and radon were regarded as having excess uncertainty, inadequate spatial resolution, or both; inventories for other chemical species were sketchy or nonexistent. Temporal resolution was almost uniformly poor. The survey made it clear that internally consistent, rigorously developed, gridded inventories with adequate spatial and temporal resolution would be valuable.

  13. Global gravity field models and their use for geophysical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pail, R.

    2015-12-01

    During the last decade, the successful operation of the dedicated satellite missions GOCE and GRACE have revolutionized our picture of the Earth's gravity field. They delivered static global gravity field maps with high and homogeneous accuracy for spatial length-scales down to 70-80 km. The current satellite-only models of the fifth generation including GOCE data have reached accuracies of about 2 cm in geoid height and less than 0.7 mGal in gravity anomalies at 100 km spatial half-wavelength. However, the spatial resolution of gravity models derived from satellite data is limited. Since precise knowledge of the Earth's gravity field structure with very high resolution is essential in solid Earth applications such as lithospheric modelling, geological interpretation and exploration geophysics, satellite-only models are complemented by combined gravity field models, which contain very high-resolution gravity field information obtained by terrestrial gravity measurements over continents, and satellite altimetry over the oceans. To further increase the spatial resolution beyond 10-20 km, measured terrestrial and satellite data can also be augmented by high-resolution gravity field signals synthesized from topographic models. In this contribution an overview of the construction of satellite-only and combined global gravity field models is given. The specific characteristics of the individual input data and the resulting models will be assessed, and their impact for geophysical modelling will be discussed. On the basis of selected case studies, commission and omission errors and thus the contribution and impact of satellite gravity data on gravity field applications will be quantified, and the benefit of current satellite gravity data shall be investigated and demonstrated. Future gravity field missions beyond GRACE Follow-On will provide global gravity field information with further increased accuracy, spatial and temporal resolution. In an international initiative

  14. Offline tracer transport modeling with global WRF model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belikov, Dmitry; Maksytov, Shamil; Zaripov, Radomir; Bart, Andrey; Starchenko, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    This work describes the one-way coupling between a global configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) weather prediction model (http://wrf-model.org/) and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional offline chemical transport model (version NIES-08.1i). The primary motivation for developing this coupled model has been to reduce transport errors in global-scale simulation of greenhouse gases through a more detailed description of the meteorological conditions. We have implemented a global configuration of WRF model (version 3.4.1, ARW core) with 2.5 degree horizontal resolution and 32 vertical levels. The WRF model was driving with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) reanalysis using combined techniques: FDDA + Cyclic Incremental Correction (like in intermittent data assimilation). Time-averaged mass-coupled horizontal velocities on sigma levels with approach supposed by Nehrkorn et al. (2010) are calculated to drive NIES TM. The NIES TM is designed to simulate natural and anthropogenic synoptic-scale variations in atmospheric constituents at diurnal, seasonal and interannual timescales. The model uses a mass-conservative flux-form formulation that consists of a third-order van Leer advection scheme and a horizontal dry-air mass flux correction. The horizontal latitude-longitude grid is a reduced rectangular grid (i.e., the grid size is doubled several times approaching the poles), with an initial spatial resolution of 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg and 32 vertical levels from the surface up to the level of 3 hPa. A simulations of the atmospheric tracer are used to evaluate the performance of the coupled WRF-NIES model. Simulated distributions are validated against in situ observations and compared with output from "standard" version of NIES TM driven by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis/the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS) dataset. Fields calculated by WRF and used to drive NIES TM were also evaluated

  15. Latest updates in global flood modelling: channel bifurcation and global river width database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamazaki, D.; Kanae, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; O'Loughlin, F.; Trigg, M. A.; Bates, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood modelling is a relatively new framework in earth system studies, and there still exist many rooms for improving model physics. A typical grid size of global models (generally >5 km) is coarser than the scale of the topography of river channels and floodplains, therefore flood dynamics in global flood models is represented by sub-grid parameterization. Here, we introduce two latest updates in flood dynamics parameterization, i.e. channel bifurcation scheme and global river width database. The upstream-downstream relationship of model grids is prescribed (i.e. parameterized) by a river network map, where each grid has been assumed to have only one downstream grid. We abandoned this "only one downstream" assumption, and succeeded to represent channel bifurcation in a global flood model. The new bifurcation scheme was tested in the Mekong River, and showed the importance of channel bifurcation in mega-delta hydrodynamics. Channel cross-sectional shape has been parameterized using an empirical equation of discharge (or drainage area), and it is a major source of uncertainties in global flood modelling. We recently developed a fully-automated algorithm to calculate river width from satellite water mask. By applying this algorithm to SRTM Water Body Data, the Global Width Database for Large Rivers (GWD-LR) was constructed. The difference between the satellite-based width and empirically-estimated width is very large, suggesting the difficulty of river width parameterization by an empirical equation. Improvement in flood dynamics parameterization reduces uncertainties in global flood simulations. This enables advanced validation/calibration of global flood models, such as direct comparison against satellite altimeters. A future strategy for advanced model validation/calibration will be mentioned in the conference presentation.

  16. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; Schuchart, Joseph; Kline, Keith L.; Wei, Yaxing; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Post, Wilfred M.; Izaurralde, R. Cesar

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmental effects.

  17. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; Schuchart, Joseph; Kline, Keith L.; Wei, Yaxing; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Post, Wilfred M.; Izaurralde, R. Cesar

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmentalmore » effects.« less

  18. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  19. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  20. Collisionless Reconnection in Global Modeling of Magnetospheric Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Gombosi, T.; de Zeeuw, D.; Toth, G.

    2006-12-01

    Recent advances in small-scale kinetic modeling of magnetic reconnection significantly improved our understanding of physical mechanisms controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in collisionless plasma. However the progress in studies of small-scale geometries was not very helpful for large scale simulations. Global magnetosphere simulations usually include non-ideal processes in terms of numerical dissipation and/or ad hoc anomalous resistivity. To understand the role of magnetic reconnection in global evolution of magnetosphere and to place spacecraft observations into global context it is desirable to perform global simulations with physically motivated model of dissipation that are capable to reproduce reconnection rates observed in kinetic models. In our efforts to bridge the gap between small scale kinetic modeling and global simulations we introduced an approach that allows to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. We utilized the global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in terms of non-gyrotropic corrections to the induction equation. We demonstrated that nongyrotropic effects can significantly alter the global magnetosphere evolution. Our approach allowed for the first time to model loading/unloading cycle in response to steady southward IMF driving. We will extend our approach to cases with nonzero IMF By and analyze the effects of solar wind parameters and ionospheric conductance on reconnection rate and global magnetosphere dynamics.

  1. Global stability for a class of discrete SIR epidemic models.

    PubMed

    Enatsu, Yoichi; Nakata, Yukihiko; Muroya, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a class of discrete SIR epidemic models which are derived from SIR epidemic models with distributed delays by using a variation of the backward Euler method. Applying a Lyapunov functional technique, it is shown that the global dynamics of each discrete SIR epidemic model are fully determined by a single threshold parameter and the effect of discrete time delays are harmless for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium of the model. PMID:20462293

  2. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne E.; Adams, P. J.

    2013-06-28

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth’s energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically-based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect using analytic representations of droplet nucleation, cloud and aerosol vertical structure, and horizontal variability in cloud water and aerosol concentration. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of aerosol indirect effects that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates are found to be sensitive to several uncertain parameters, including the preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the size of the primary particles, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Aerosol indirect effects are surprisingly linear in emissions. This simple model provides a much stronger physical basis for representing aerosol indirect effects than previous representations in integrated assessment models designed to quickly explore the parameter space of emissions-climate interactions. The model also produces estimates that depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models.

  3. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  4. Global Futures: a multithreaded execution model for Global Arrays-based applications

    SciTech Connect

    Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Vishnu, Abhinav

    2012-05-31

    We present Global Futures (GF), an execution model extension to Global Arrays, which is based on a PGAS-compatible Active Message-based paradigm. We describe the design and implementation of Global Futures and illustrate its use in a computational chemistry application benchmark (Hartree-Fock matrix construction using the Self-Consistent Field method). Our results show how we used GF to increase the scalability of the Hartree-Fock matrix build to up to 6,144 cores of an Infiniband cluster. We also show how GF's multithreaded execution has comparable performance to the traditional process-based SPMD model.

  5. Atmospheric Sulfur Cycle Simulated in The Global Model GOCART: Model Description and Global Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Rood, Richard B.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Mueller, Jean-Francois; Thompson, Anne M.

    2000-01-01

    The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the atmospheric sulfur cycle. The model uses the simulated meteorological data from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). Global sulfur budgets from a 6-year simulation for SO2, sulfate, dimethylsulfide (DMS), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) are presented in this paper. In a normal year without major volcanic perturbations, about 20% of the sulfate precursor emission is from natural sources (biogenic and volcanic) and 80% is anthropogenic: the same sources contribute 339% and 67% respectively to the total sulfate burden. A sulfate production efficiency of 0.41 - 0.42 is estimated in the model, an efficiency which is defined as a ratio of the amount oi sulfate produced to the total amount of SO2 emitted and produced in the atmosphere. This value indicates that less than half of the SO2 entering the atmosphere contributes to the sulfate production, the rest being removed by dry and wet depositions. In a simulation for 1990, we estimate a total sulfate production of 39 Tg S /yr with 36% and 64% respectively from in-air and in-cloud oxidation of SO2. We also demonstrate that major volcanic eruptions, such as the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, can significantly change the sulfate formation pathways, distributions, abundance, and lifetime. Comparison with other models shows that the parameterizations for wet removal or wet production of sulfate are the most critical factors in determining the burdens of SO2 and sulfate. Therefore, a priority for future research should be to reduce the large uncertainties associated with the wet physical and chemical processes.

  6. Global Model Analysis by Parameter Space Partitioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pitt, Mark A.; Kim, Woojae; Navarro, Daniel J.; Myung, Jay I.

    2006-01-01

    To model behavior, scientists need to know how models behave. This means learning what other behaviors a model can produce besides the one generated by participants in an experiment. This is a difficult problem because of the complexity of psychological models (e.g., their many parameters) and because the behavioral precision of models (e.g.,…

  7. Model of globally coupled Duffing flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimada, Tokuzo; Moriya, Takanobu

    2014-03-01

    A Duffing oscillator in a certain parameter range shows period-doubling that has the same Feigenbaum ratio as the logistic map, which is an important issue in universality in chaos. In this paper a globally coupled lattice of Duffing flows (GCFL), which is a natural extension of the globally coupled logistic map lattice (GCML), is constructed. It is observed that GCFL inherits various intriguing properties of GCML and that universality at the level of elements is thus lifted to that of systems. Phase diagrams for GCFL are determined, which are essentially the same as those for GCML. Similar to the two-clustered periodic attractor of GCML, the GCFL two-clustered attractor exhibits a successive period-doubling with an increase of population imbalance between the clusters (\\vartheta -bifurcation). A nontrivial distinction between the GCML and GCFL attractors that originates from the symmetry in the Duffing equation is investigated in detail.

  8. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  9. Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

    2016-05-01

    Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

  10. Global scale, physical models of the F region ionosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    1989-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development and verification of global computer models of the F-region which simulate the interactions between physical processes in the ionosphere. The limitations of the physical models are discussed, focusing on the inputs to the ionospheric system such as magnetospheric electric field and auroral precipitation. The possibility of coupling ionospheric models with thermospheric and magnetospheric models is examined.

  11. A Data-Driven Evolution Model for the Global Corona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X. S.; Jiang, C.; Xiang, C. Q.; Wu, S.

    2011-12-01

    In this work we have developed a new time-dependent global corona model for the study of dynamic evolution of the global corona that can respond continuously to the changing of the photospheric magnetogram. A surface flux transport (SFT) model is employed to produce the time-varying and self-consistent magnetogram with synoptic map as input. The global corona model is established with our newly-developed numerical code AMR-CESE-MHD on an overset grid of Yin-Yang overlapping structure. The SFT model and the three-dimensional global corona model is coupled through the boundary condition of projected-characteristic method. Numerical study of the coronal evolution from Carrington rotation 1913 to 1915 presents results comparable with multi-observed coronal images.

  12. A new global GIS architecture based on STQIE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chengqi; Guan, Li; Guo, Shide; Pu, Guoliang; Sun, Min

    2007-06-01

    Global GIS is a system, which supports the huge data process and the global direct manipulation on global grid based on spheroid or ellipsoid surface. A new Global GIS architecture based on STQIE model is designed in this paper, according to the computer cluster theory, the space-time integration technology and the virtual real technology. There is four-level protocol framework and three-layer data management pattern of Global GIS based on organization, management and publication of spatial information in this architecture. In this paper a global 3D prototype system is developed taking advantage of C++ language according to the above thought. This system integrated the simulation system with GIS, and supported display of multi-resolution DEM, image and multi-dimensional static or dynamic 3D objects.

  13. Statistical Properties of Downscaled CMIP3 Global Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duffy, P.; Tyan, S.; Thrasher, B.; Maurer, E. P.; Tebaldi, C.

    2009-12-01

    Spatial downscaling of global climate model projections adds physically meaningful spatial detail, and brings the results down to a scale that is more relevant to human and ecological systems. Statistical/empirical downscaling methods are computationally inexpensive, and thus can be applied to large ensembles of global climate model projections. Here we examine some of the statistical properties of a large ensemble of empirically downscale global climate projections. The projections are the CMIP3 global climate model projections that were performed by modeling groups around the world and archived by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Downscaled versions of 112 of these simulations were created on 2007 and are archived at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html. The downscaling methodology employed, “Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling” (BCSD), includes a correction of GCM biases relative to observations during a historical reference period, as well as empirical downscaling to grid scale of ~12 km. We analyzed these downscaled projections and some of the original global model results to assess effects of the bias correction and downscaling on the statistical properties of the ensemble. We also assessed uncertainty in the climate response to increased greenhouse gases from initial conditions relative to the uncertainty introduced by choice of global climate model.

  14. Spherical harmonic analysis for verfication of a global atmospheric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christidis, Z.; Spar, J.

    1979-01-01

    Surface spherical harmonics were used to analyze the horizontal fields of various quantities generated by a global climate model. Also, the computed monthly mean forecast fields were compared with the corresponding observed fields.

  15. Modeling monthly mean variation of the solar global irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vindel, J. M.; Polo, J.; Zarzalejo, L. F.

    2015-01-01

    The monthly mean variation of the solar global reaching the Earth's surface has been characterized at a global level by a regression model. This model considers the monthly variation itself (to different horizons and even the maximum annual variation) as the study variable, and it is applied without using data corresponding to measured meteorological variable. Two explicative variables have been used, the variation of the extraterrestrial irradiation and the variation of the clear sky global horizontal irradiation. The work has been carried out from datasets including average global daily solar irradiation for each month of the year measured on the ground. The model quality has been proven to be very dependent of the temporal variation considered, in such a way that higher variations, that is to say, higher distances between months, lead to an improvement in the model outcomes.

  16. Global Models of Growth and Competition

    PubMed Central

    Gilpin, Michael E.; Ayala, Francisco J.

    1973-01-01

    Very precise data on the dynamics of a competitive system of two species of Drosophila have been obtained. By a curvilinear regression approach, analytical models of competition have been fitted. By statistical and biological criteria of simplicity, reality, generality, and accuracy, the best of these models has been chosen. This model represents an extension of the Lotka-Volterra model of competition; it adds a fourth parameter that controls the degree of nonlinearity in intraspecific growth regulation. It represents a similar extension of the logistic model of population growth. PMID:4519647

  17. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    In 2012 AgMIP led a Global Gridded Crop Model (GGCM) Intercomparison fast-track project in coordination with the PIK-led Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). This fast-track included 7 GGCMs and updated the state of knowledge on climate change vulnerabilities and impacts using modern global high-resolution models driven by climate model output from CMIP5. This fast-track culminated with the January 31st submission of 6 papers to a PNAS special issue. Initial results indicate the potential of global gridded crop model simulations and the need to further improve understanding of mechanisms, assumptions, and uncertainties of model design and execution; these are best addressed in a coordinated model intercomparison project at continental and global scale. In Spring 2013, we developed a new set of protocols for the next phase of the GGCMI, which will run for 3 years and include 3 overlapping stages of increasing duration: 1) Historical simulation and model evaluation 2) Analysis of model sensitivity to CTWN (carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen) 3) Coordinated regional and global climate assessment In this talk we will summarize some key finding from the 2012 fast-track assessment and present preliminary results from Phase 2.1: Historical simulation and model evaluation. In this stage, models are being run using various observation and reanalysis-based historical weather products so that they can be evaluated over the historical period globally and in various key interest regions, so that inter-model differences can be compared against the variation induced by the choice of historical data product, and so that historical extreme events can be evaluated in a multi-model framework. The project currently includes 17 modeling groups from 11 countries, along with several other major data partners, and simulations are being performed over the Summer and Fall of 2013.

  18. A traceability framework for diagnostics of global land models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Shi, Zheng; KC, Manoj; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Rafique, Rashid; Wang, Ying-Ping

    2015-04-01

    The biggest impediment to model diagnostics and improvement at present is model intractability. The more processes incorporated, the more difficult it becomes to understand or evaluate model behavior. As a result, uncertainty in predictions among global land models cannot be easily diagnosed and attributed to their sources. We have recently developed an approach to analytically decompose a complex land model into traceable components based on mutually independent properties of modeled core biogeochemical processes. As all global land carbon models share those common properties, this traceability framework is applicable to all of them to improve their tractability. Indeed, we have applied the traceability framework to improve model diagnostics in several aspects. First, we have applied the framework to the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model and Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5) to identify sources of those model differences. The major causes of different predictions were found to be parameter setting related to carbon input and baseline residence times between the two models. Second, we have used the framework to diagnose impacts of adding nitrogen processes into CABLE on its carbon simulation. Adding nitrogen processes not only reduces net primary production but also shortens residence times in the CABLE model. Third, the framework helps isolate components of CLM3.5 for data assimilation. Data assimilation with global land models has been computationally extremely difficult. By isolating traceable components, we have improved parameterization of CLM3.4 related to soil organic decomposition, microbial kinetics and carbon use efficiency, and litter decomposition. Further, we are currently developing the traceability framework to analyze transient simulations of models that were involved in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to improve our understanding on parameter space of global carbon models. This

  19. Multi-Scale Modeling of Global of Magnetospheric Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastatter, L.; Toth, G.; DeZeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

    2010-01-01

    To understand the role of magnetic reconnection in global evolution of magnetosphere and to place spacecraft observations into global context it is essential to perform global simulations with physically motivated model of dissipation that is capable to reproduce reconnection rates predicted by kinetic models. In our efforts to bridge the gap between small scale kinetic modeling and global simulations we introduced an approach that allows to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. We utilized the high resolution global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of reconnection sites in terms of kinetic corrections to induction and energy equations. One of the key elements of the multiscale modeling of magnetic reconnection is identification of reconnection sites and boundaries of surrounding diffusion regions where non-MHD corrections are required. Reconnection site search in the equatorial plane implemented in our previous studies is extended to cusp and magnetopause reconnection, as well as for magnetotail reconnection in realistic asymmetric configurations. The role of feedback between the non-ideal effects in diffusion regions and global magnetosphere structure and dynamics will be discussed.

  20. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  1. [The population problem in global modeling].

    PubMed

    Naidenova, P

    1986-01-01

    Developments during the past 15 years in population modeling are critically reviewed. The author notes that while population variables were treated as endogenous in earlier models developed by the Club of Rome, later models have treated such variables as exogenous. The need to link demographic factors to structural changes and economic growth, in accordance with Marxist-Leninist population theory, is noted. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) PMID:12280533

  2. Including eddies in global ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

    The ocean is a turbulent fluid that is driven by winds and by surface exchanges of heat and moisture. It is as important as the atmosphere in governing climate through heat distribution, but so little is known about the ocean that it remains a “final frontier” on the face of the Earth. Many ocean currents are truly global in extent, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the “conveyor belt” that connects the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by flows around the southern tips of Africa and South America. It has long been a dream of some oceanographers to supplement the very limited observational knowledge by reconstructing the currents of the world ocean from the first principles of physics on a computer. However, until very recently, the prospect of doing this was thwarted by the fact that fluctuating currents known as “mesoscale eddies” could not be explicitly included in the calculation.

  3. Challenges in Global Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, K. C.

    2011-12-01

    For the purposes of projecting and anticipating human-induced land use change at the global scale, much work remains in the systematic mapping and modeling of world-wide land uses and their related dynamics. In particular, research has focused on tropical deforestation, loss of prime agricultural land, loss of wild land and open space, and the spread of urbanization. Fifteen years of experience in modeling land use and land cover change at the regional and city level with the cellular automata model SLEUTH, including cross city and regional comparisons, has led to an ability to comment on the challenges and constraints that apply to global level land use change modeling. Some issues are common to other modeling domains, such as scaling, earth geometry, and model coupling. Others relate to geographical scaling of human activity, while some are issues of data fusion and international interoperability. Grid computing now offers the prospect of global land use change simulation. This presentation summarizes what barriers face global scale land use modeling, but also highlights the benefits of such modeling activity on global change research. An approach to converting land use maps and forecasts into environmental impact measurements is proposed. Using such an approach means that multitemporal mapping, often using remotely sensed sources, and forecasting can also yield results showing the overall and disaggregated status of the environment.

  4. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  5. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  7. Four-Dimensional Global Reference-Atmosphere Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Dale; Blocker, Rhonda S.

    1988-01-01

    Four-Dimensional Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) computer program developed from empirical atmospheric model generating values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds, from ground to orbital altitudes. Is amalgamation of two empirical atmospheric models for low and high atmosphere with newly-developed latitude-and longitude-dependent model for middle atmosphere. UNIVAC version written in UNIVAC FORTRAN. DEC VAX version of GRAM written in FORTRAN 77. Applications include simulation of reentry trajectories of external tanks, studies of global circulation and diffusion and generation of plots or data for comparison.

  8. An eddy-resolving model of the Global Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibrayev, Rashit; Khabeev, Renat; Kalmykov, Vladimir; Ushakov, Konstantin

    2013-04-01

    We present results of eddy-resolving simulation of the global ocean with INM-IO general circulation model. The global grid employs tripole layout, has 0.1-degree horizontal resolution, and uses 49 vertical levels. The ocean model coupled with sea ice and atmospheric boundary layer sub-models. We address to the problem of effective implementation of the numerical code on parallel computers. The model was developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) and P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO). The global simulations were performed with atmospheric conditions based on repeat annual cycle of the normal year - CORE dataset. We present an overview from 75-year spinup. The model results are quite good when compared to observations. We discuss the results of sensitivity of AMOC to the fresh water input due to Greenland ice sheet melting.

  9. A Global Hydrological Model with Reservoir Operation Scheme: Global and Regional Applications (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Mateo, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2013-12-01

    More than 45000 large dams have been constructed all over the world, and their total storage capacity exceeds 7000 km3 which corresponds to approximately 20% of the total annual global river discharge. Explicit incorporation of reservoir operation is indispensable for global-/macro-scale hydrological models, since their storage capacity and potential of altering flow regime are too large to neglect. Our presentation consists of three parts. In the first part, the H08 model, a global hydrological model with reservoir operation scheme is introduced. The H08 model includes an algorithm to estimate reservoir operating rules of individual reservoirs. This enables us to apply the model to the regions and periods with no recorded reservoir operation. The key concepts and challenges of the model are discussed. In the second part, the role of reservoirs in water scarcity is globally assessed. In many parts of the world, local people are suffered from temporal variability in precipitation and river flow. The contribution of reservoirs to water scarcity alleviation is quantitatively and globally assessed. The assessment is extended to the future periods utilizing the latest climate and socio-economic scenarios. In the last part, a regional model application is introduced. The Chao Phraya River in Thailand was suffered from a severe flood in 2011. Vast area was inundated for months and the economic damages reached 40 billion USD. The Chao Phraya River has two major reservoirs and their role is crucial for both water use and flood control. The H08 model is substantially enhanced and applied to the basin to reproduce the 2011 floods. The tradeoff between water use and flood control was investigated by changing reservoir operation options.

  10. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  11. Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA Using Satellite and Surface Observations

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zhang, Xiaotong; Liang, Shunlin; Wang, Guoxin; Yao, Yunjun; Jiang, Bo; Cheng, Jie

    2016-03-10

    Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface (Rs) is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55) using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total) and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs andmore » surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from 2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF) in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. Lastly, ffter removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 were obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.« less

  12. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-10-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ``barotropic`` equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ``baroclinic`` equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow.

  13. Efficient stencil assembly in global geodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Simon; Mohr, Marcus; Rüde, Ulrich; Wittmann, Markus

    2016-04-01

    In mantle circulation models the simulation domain is a thick spherical shell representing the earth's mantle. Typically, finite elements are the method of choice to account for the spherical geometry. The wide range of length scales involved in earth dynamics is a major challenge. Capturing localized features such as faulted plate boundaries requires local resolutions in the order of

  14. Radiative heating in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K.

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  15. Global Attenuation Model of the Upper Mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenis, A.; Debayle, E.; Ricard, Y. R.

    2015-12-01

    We present a three-dimensional shear attenuation model based on a massive surface wave data-set (372,629 Rayleigh waveforms analysed in the period range 50-300s by Debayle and Ricard, 2012). For each seismogram, this approach yields depth-dependent path average models of shear velocity and quality factor, and a set of fundamental and higher-mode dispersion and attenuation curves. We combine these attenuation measurements in a tomographic inversion after a careful rejection of the noisy data. We first remove data likely to be biased by a poor knowledge of the source. Then we assume that waves corresponding to events having close epicenters and recorded at the same station sample the same elastic and anelastic structure, we cluster the corresponding rays and average the attenuation measurements. Logarithms of the attenuations are regionalized using the non-linear east square formalism of Tarantola and Valette (1982), resulting in attenuation tomographic maps between 50s and 300s. After a first inversion, outlyers are rejected and a second inversion yields a moderate variance reduction of about 20%. We correct the attenuation curves for focusing effect using the linearized ray theory of Woodhouse and Wong (1986). Accounting for focussing effects allows building tomographic maps with variance reductions reaching 40%. In the period range 120-200s, the root mean square of the model perturbations increases from about 5% to 20%. Our 3-D attenuation models present strong agreement with surface tectonics at period lower than 200s. Areas of low attenuation are located under continents and areas of high attenuation are associated with oceans. Surprisingly, although mid oceanic ridges are located in attenuating regions, their signature, even if enhanced by focusing corrections, remains weaker than in the shear velocity models. Synthetic tests suggests that regularisation contributes to damp the attenuation signature of ridges, which could therefore be underestimated.

  16. Observed nighttime conductance alters modeled global hydrology and carbon budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardozzi, D. L.; Zeppel, M. J. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Tawfik, A.

    2015-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere regulates climate through carbon, water, and energy exchanges with the atmosphere. Land surface models estimate plant transpiration, which is actively regulated by stomatal pores, and provide projections essential for understanding Earth's carbon and water resources. Empirical evidence from 204 species suggests that significant amounts of water are lost through leaves at night, though land surface models typically reduce stomatal conductance to nearly zero at night. Here, we apply observed nighttime stomatal conductance values to a global land surface model, to better constrain carbon and water budgets. We find that our modifications increase transpiration up to 5 % globally, reduce modeled available soil moisture by up to 50 % in semi-arid regions, and increase the importance of the land surface on modulating energy fluxes. Carbon gain declines up to ~ 4 % globally and > 25 % in semi-arid regions. We advocate for realistic constraints of minimum stomatal conductance in future climate simulations, and widespread field observations to improve parameterizations.

  17. Global detailed geoid computation and model analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsh, J. G.; Vincent, S.

    1974-01-01

    Comparisons and analyses were carried out through the use of detailed gravimetric geoids which we have computed by combining models with a set of 26,000 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies. The accuracy of the detailed gravimetric geoid computed using the most recent Goddard earth model (GEM-6) in conjunction with the set of 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies is assessed at + or - 2 meters on the continents of North America, Europe, and Australia, 2 to 5 meters in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic areas, and 5 to 10 meters in other areas where surface gravity data are sparse. The R.M.S. differences between this detailed geoid and the detailed geoids computed using the other satellite gravity fields in conjuction with same set of surface data range from 3 to 7 meters.

  18. Modelling of global change at the mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A.; Brasseur, G.

    2003-04-01

    Significant negative temperature trend at the northern hemisphere mesospause for winter season has been documented by different methods of observations. For studying mechanisms of the mesopause cooling, simulations with the use of the chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model named SOCRATES are used. Probable mechanisms of the observed cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be of radiation as well as dynamical nature. Among these are changes in contents of greenhouse gases and changes in gravity wave momentum deposition affecting the meridional circulation in the upper mesosphere. Combined increase for the last 50 year, in accordance with the observed trends, in contents of CO2, methane, N2O, and water vapor as well as the lower troposphere warming results in a simulated cooling of a few K at the mesopause for winter and summer seasons. This shows that the trends in the contents of greenhouse gases and the lower troposphere temperature are not the only (and, probably, not the main) reason of the large cooling in the upper mesosphere, at least in the framework of a two-dimensional model. Long-term changes in the circulation resulting in changes of gravity wave momentum and energy deposition, which affects the circulation in the middle atmosphere, could also be responsible for this effect. As an example, the doubling of the model gravity wave forcing results in an essential cooling by several K at the northern hemisphere mesopause in winter. The simulated effect of combined changes in contents of greenhouse gases, low troposphere temperature, and doubling of the gravity wave forcing is the cooling of the model mesopause by 8-10 K in the middle-to-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in winter, along with insignificant thermal effect in summer.

  19. CONSTABLE: A Global Climate Model for Classroom Use.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cerveny, Randall S.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Described is the global climate model CONSTABLE (Climatic One-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Annual Balance of Latitudinal Energy), which can be used in undergraduate and graduate level climatology courses. Classroom exercises that can be used with the model are also included. (RM)

  20. Modeling the Electrical Characteristics of the Global Electric Circuit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, G.; Lehto, E.; Baumgaertner, A. J.; Thayer, J. P.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.

    2013-12-01

    Earth's global electric circuit (GEC) embodies the electrical pathways by which currents flow from electrified clouds to the ionosphere and return through fair weather regions to the earth's surface. To investigate this pathway, an analytic model based on others' previous work has been developed to produce global estimates of atmospheric currents, electric fields, and potential distributions of the GEC. The atmosphere between the ground and the ionosphere is composed of complex current sources and conductivity distributions. In the global electric circuit, lightning events act as current generators maintaining the potential difference between the earth and ionosphere. An analytic solution to Poisson's equation was applied to the GEC, allowing for a steady-state calculation of global distributions in potential, electric fields and currents for specified conductivity distributions and current sources. The global distribution of current sources provided on a monthly basis by a recently developed empirical model of Wilson currents. Analytic representations of global conductivities are implemented that include large-scale changes in the galactic cosmic ray flux. A novel numeric solver for Poisson's equation was also developed to enable analysis of more complex distributions of conductivity, i.e. cloud and aerosol effects. These models allow one to determine how different lightning and conductivity distributions impact the electrical characteristics of the GEC.

  1. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  2. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  3. A Global View Beyond the Standard Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2008-01-20

    By 1973, the theoretical foundations of the Standard Model of fundamental interactions had been completed. In the decades that followed, new particles and phenomena predicted by the Standard Model were discovered in a dramatic series of experiments at laboratories around the world. This began with the discovery of the charm quark at SLAC and Brookhaven, predicted by Glashow, Illiopoulos and Maiani from flavor properties of the SM. The W and Z bosons were produced directly in experiments at CERN, and signals of energetic gluons were observed at DESY. Experiments eventually found a full third generation of fermions, culminating with the discovery of the top quark and tau neutrino at Fermilab. During this same period, major theoretical advances made it possible to push the accuracy of Standard Model predictions. This allowed compelling tests of the SM at the level of radiative corrections, and to test the predictions of QCD in the confining domain. Thus experiments confirmed the quantum dynamics of the SM, and validated the CKM picture of flavor mixing and CP violation. While this process took a long time, and may have appeared frustrating to many to just achieve the confirmation of the 'standard' theory, the outcome of these 30-odd years is now a cornerstone of our understanding of the natural world, occupying a deserved place next to Maxwell's electromagnetism, to relativity, and to quantum mechanics. The timescale and size of this enterprise, at the same time, gives us a benchmark for the magnitude of the efforts that may be required to go beyond the Standard Model to the next level of fundamental understanding. New ideas and theories have been put forward in the attempt to understand great questions left unanswered by the Standard Model. These theories attempt to explain why nature needs both gravitational and gauge interactions, and why their energy scales are so different. They address the possible origins of matter-antimatter asymmetry, of particle masses, and

  4. Reconstruction of Groundwater Depletion Using a Global Scale Groundwater Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a crucial part of the global water cycle. It is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. During times of droughts it sustains river flows and evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. However, most global scale hydrological models do not include a lateral groundwater flow component due to a lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information. Such data is needed to arrive at a more realistic physical representation of the groundwater system allowing for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows including abstractions in confined and unconfined aquifers. This improved process description is indispensable to understand the effects of past and future climate variations and human dependence on global water resources. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model presenting confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al. 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. The aquifer parameterization is based on available global data-sets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al. 2011) and newly derived estimates of aquifer depth and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. In a sensitivity analysis the model is run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and recharge (Wada et al 2012) are evaluated. Trends and fluctuations of groundwater head and streamflow are studied in response to human groundwater use and climate variability, as well as revealing hotspots and magnitude of global groundwater depletion.

  5. Global specialized stroke care delivery models.

    PubMed

    Theofanidis, Dimitrios; Savopoulos, Christos; Hatzitolios, Apostolos

    2016-03-01

    Stroke services still vary enormously from country to country, with many countries providing no special services at all. The aim of this article is to provide a concise overview of the various types of acute stroke delivery systems at present available and critically describe merits and shortcomings. A systematic literature review was undertaken from 1990 to July 2014. Several models for stroke services have been developed mostly in the past 3 decades, mainly in the Western world. These include state-of-the-art stroke services ranging from highly specialized stroke centers to mobile stroke units for the community. In this light, the recommendations of the structure and organization of stroke units and stroke centers by the European Stroke Organization were recently published. What differentiates the various models of stroke care delivery across the globe is the diversity of services ranging from low key conventional care to highly sophisticated facilities with life saving interventional features via integrated stroke care infrastructure. Effective in-hospital care for stroke should start in the emergency department where a swift and appropriate diagnosis should be made. The role of all brain neuroimaging procedures should have a defined a priori and proper demarcation between actions according to updated stroke care pathways and clinical protocols, which should be followed closely. These essential actions initiated by well-trained staff in the emergency department, should then be carried on in dedicated stroke facilities that is, a stroke unit. PMID:26897346

  6. Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

    2008-03-01

    A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

  7. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  8. Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): Global pattern and differentiation by major biomes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kicklighter, D.W.; Bondeau, A.; Schloss, A.L.; Kaduk, J.; McGuire, A.D.

    1999-01-01

    Annual and seasonal net primary productivity estimates (NPP) of 15 global models across latitudinal zones and biomes are compared. The models simulated NPP for contemporary climate using common, spatially explicit data sets for climate, soil texture, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Differences among NPP estimates varied over space and time. The largest differences occur during the summer months in boreal forests (50??to 60??N) and during the dry seasons of tropical evergreen forests. Differences in NPP estimates are related to model assumptions about vegetation structure, model parameterizations, and input data sets.

  9. Modeling and Global Optimization of DNA separation

    PubMed Central

    Fahrenkopf, Max A.; Ydstie, B. Erik; Mukherjee, Tamal; Schneider, James W.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a non-convex non-linear programming problem that determines the minimum run time to resolve different lengths of DNA using a gel-free micelle end-labeled free solution electrophoresis separation method. Our optimization framework allows for efficient determination of the utility of different DNA separation platforms and enables the identification of the optimal operating conditions for these DNA separation devices. The non-linear programming problem requires a model for signal spacing and signal width, which is known for many DNA separation methods. As a case study, we show how our approach is used to determine the optimal run conditions for micelle end-labeled free-solution electrophoresis and examine the trade-offs between a single capillary system and a parallel capillary system. Parallel capillaries are shown to only be beneficial for DNA lengths above 230 bases using a polydisperse micelle end-label otherwise single capillaries produce faster separations. PMID:24764606

  10. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.; Wagner, William (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The solar corona, the hot, tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, exhibits many fascinating phenomena on a wide range of scales. One of the ways that the Sun can affect us here at Earth is through the large-scale structure of the corona and the dynamical phenomena associated with it, as it is the corona that extends outward as the solar wind and encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The goal of our research sponsored by NASA's Supporting Research and Technology Program in Solar Physics is to develop increasingly realistic models of the large-scale solar corona, so that we can understand the underlying properties of the coronal magnetic field that lead to the observed structure and evolution of the corona. We describe the work performed under this contract.

  11. Modeling and Global Optimization of DNA separation.

    PubMed

    Fahrenkopf, Max A; Ydstie, B Erik; Mukherjee, Tamal; Schneider, James W

    2014-05-01

    We develop a non-convex non-linear programming problem that determines the minimum run time to resolve different lengths of DNA using a gel-free micelle end-labeled free solution electrophoresis separation method. Our optimization framework allows for efficient determination of the utility of different DNA separation platforms and enables the identification of the optimal operating conditions for these DNA separation devices. The non-linear programming problem requires a model for signal spacing and signal width, which is known for many DNA separation methods. As a case study, we show how our approach is used to determine the optimal run conditions for micelle end-labeled free-solution electrophoresis and examine the trade-offs between a single capillary system and a parallel capillary system. Parallel capillaries are shown to only be beneficial for DNA lengths above 230 bases using a polydisperse micelle end-label otherwise single capillaries produce faster separations. PMID:24764606

  12. Hippocampal neurogenesis in the new model of global cerebral ischemia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisel, A. A.; Chernysheva, G. A.; Smol'yakova, V. I.; Savchenko, R. R.; Plotnikov, M. B.; Khodanovich, M. Yu.

    2015-11-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the changes of hippocampal neurogenesis in a new model of global transient cerebral ischemia which was performed by the occlusion of the three main vessels (tr. brachiocephalicus, a. subclavia sinistra, and a. carotis communis sinistra) branching from the aortic arch and supplying the brain. Global transitory cerebral ischemia was modeled on male rats (weight = 250-300 g) under chloral hydrate with artificial lung ventilation. Animals after the same surgical operation without vessel occlusion served as sham-operated controls. The number of DCX-positive (doublecortin, the marker of immature neurons) cells in dentate gyrus (DG) and CA1-CA3 fields of hippocampus was counted at the 31st day after ischemia modeling. It was revealed that global cerebral ischemia decreased neurogenesis in dentate gyrus in comparison with the sham-operated group (P<0.05) while neurogenesis in CA1-CA3 fields was increased as compared to the control (P<0.05).

  13. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  14. A model of global convection in Jupiter's magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, A. F.; Krimigis, S. M.

    1989-09-01

    Voyager observations of Jupiter's magnetosphere are compared with the planetary wind model in which corotation must break down outside some Alfven critical radius and a centrifugally driven wind outflow must develop. It is found that the model does not agree with the observations. A new global convection model for the Jovian magnetosphere is proposed, based on models of quasi-stationary plasma convection in the earth's magnetosphere. The model predicts a substantial dawn-dusk asymmetry in the structure, dynamics, and plasma composition of the magnetopause and magnetosheath. The model also predicts a region of cross-tail flow in the nightside plasma sheet containing a substantial admixture of solar wind plasma.

  15. Representing plant hydraulics in a global Earth system model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, D.; Gentine, P.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models need improvement to reproduce observed seasonal and diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Model water stress parameterizations lag behind the plant physiology literature. A plant hydraulics model is developed and deployed in a global Earth system model (NCAR CESM 1.2.2 with CLM 4.5). Assimilation and transpiration are attenuated according to literature cavitation curves. Water stress is evaluated based on plant functional type hydraulic parameters forced by soil moisture and atmospheric conditions. Resolving the plant water status allows for modelling divergent strategies for water stress. The case of isohydric versus anisohydric species is presented, showing that including plant hydraulic traits alter modelled photosynthesis and transpiration.

  16. Global scale hydrology - Advances in land surface modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, E.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Research into global scale hydrology is an expanding area that includes researchers from the meteorology, climatology, ecology and hydrology communities. This paper reviews research in this area carried out in the United States during the last IUGG quadrennial period of 1987-1990. The review covers the representation of land-surface hydrologic processes for general circulation models (GCMs), sensitivity analysis of these representations on global hydrologic fields like precipitation, regional studies of climate that have global hydrologic implications, recent field studies and experiments whose aims are the improved understanding of land surface-atmospheric interactions, and the use of remotely sensed data for the further understanding of the spatial variability of surface hydrologic processes that are important at regional and global climate scales. 76 refs.

  17. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Harberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. ne primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase 1 aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  18. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-1 10 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  19. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase I aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  20. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  1. A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Running, Steven W.

    1992-01-01

    A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

  2. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-01-01

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

  3. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model.

    PubMed

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-01-01

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

  4. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  5. Nonstationarity signatures in the dynamics of global nonlinear models.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, L A; Letellier, C

    2012-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to learn how to recognize a posteriori signatures that nonstationarity leaves on global models obtained from data. To this end the effects of nonstationarity on the dynamics of such models are reported for two benchmarks. Parameters of the Rössler and Lorenz models are varied to produce nonstationary data. It is shown that not only the rate of change of the varying parameter but also which recorded variable is used to estimate global models may have visible effects on the results, which are system-dependent and therefore difficult to generalize. Although the effects of nonstationarity are not necessarily obvious from the phase portraits, the first-return map to a Poincaré section is a much more adequate tool to recognize such effects. Three examples of models previously obtained from experimental data are analyzed in the light of the concepts discussed in this paper. PMID:23020475

  6. A fully-implicit model of the global ocean circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijer, Wilbert; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Öksüzoğlu, Hakan; Wubs, Fred W.; de Niet, Arie C.

    2003-12-01

    With the recent developments in the solution methods for large-dimensional nonlinear algebraic systems, fully-implicit ocean circulation models are now becoming feasible. In this paper, the formulation of such a three-dimensional global ocean model is presented. With this implicit model, the sensitivity of steady states to parameters can be investigated efficiently using continuation methods. In addition, the implicit formulation allows for much larger time steps than can be used with explicit models. To demonstrate current capabilities of the implicit global ocean model, we use a relatively low-resolution (4° horizontally and 12 levels vertically) version. For this configuration, we present: (i) an explicit calculation of the bifurcation diagram associated with hysteresis behavior of the ocean circulation and (ii) the scaling behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning versus the magnitude of the vertical mixing coefficient of heat and salt.

  7. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. PMID:25555206

  8. Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

    1983-01-01

    A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

  9. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  10. Should precipitation influence dust emission in global dust models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okin, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture modulates the threshold shear stress required to initiate aeolian transport and dust emission. Most of the theoretical and laboratory work that has confirmed the impact of soil moisture has appropriately acknowledged that it is the soil moisture of a surface layer a few grain diameters thick that truly controls threshold shear velocity. Global and regional models of dust emission include the effect of soil moisture on transport threshold, but most ignore the fact that only the moisture of the very topmost "active layer" matters. The soil moisture in the active layer can differ greatly from that integrated through the top 2, 5, 10, or 100 cm (surface layers used by various global models) because the top 2 mm of heavy texture soils dries within ~1/2 day while sandy soils dry within less than 2 hours. Thus, in drylands where dust emission occurs, it is likely that this top layer is drier than the underlying soil in the days and weeks after rain. This paper explores, globally, the time between rain events in relation to the time for the active layer to dry and the timing of high wind events. This analysis is carried out using the same coarse reanalyses used in global dust models and is intended to inform the soil moisture controls in these models. The results of this analysis indicate that the timing between events is, in almost all dust-producing areas, significantly longer than the drying time of the active layer, even when considering soil texture differences. Further, the analysis shows that the probability of a high wind event during the period after a rain where the surface is wet is small. Therefore, in coarse global models, there is little reason to include rain-derived soil moisture in the modeling scheme.

  11. A geodetic plate motion and Global Strain Rate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreemer, Corné; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Klein, Elliot C.

    2014-10-01

    present a new global model of plate motions and strain rates in plate boundary zones constrained by horizontal geodetic velocities. This Global Strain Rate Model (GSRM v.2.1) is a vast improvement over its predecessor both in terms of amount of data input as in an increase in spatial model resolution by factor of ˜2.5 in areas with dense data coverage. We determined 6739 velocities from time series of (mostly) continuous GPS measurements; i.e., by far the largest global velocity solution to date. We transformed 15,772 velocities from 233 (mostly) published studies onto our core solution to obtain 22,511 velocities in the same reference frame. Care is taken to not use velocities from stations (or time periods) that are affected by transient phenomena; i.e., this data set consists of velocities best representing the interseismic plate velocity. About 14% of the Earth is allowed to deform in 145,086 deforming grid cells (0.25° longitude by 0.2° latitude in dimension). The remainder of the Earth's surface is modeled as rigid spherical caps representing 50 tectonic plates. For 36 plates we present new GPS-derived angular velocities. For all the plates that can be compared with the most recent geologic plate motion model, we find that the difference in angular velocity is significant. The rigid-body rotations are used as boundary conditions in the strain rate calculations. The strain rate field is modeled using the Haines and Holt method, which uses splines to obtain an self-consistent interpolated velocity gradient tensor field, from which strain rates, vorticity rates, and expected velocities are derived. We also present expected faulting orientations in areas with significant vorticity, and update the no-net rotation reference frame associated with our global velocity gradient field. Finally, we present a global map of recurrence times for Mw=7.5 characteristic earthquakes.

  12. Is a substantial global bioenergy system feasible? A spatial analysis using a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erbrecht, T.; Lucht, W.; Lotze-Campem, H.

    2007-12-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the global demand for energy is projected to grow by more than 50 % until 2030 (IEA, 2006) and therefore actions are urgently required to decarbonize the global economy. Second generation bioenergy systems are promoted as a way forward to displace large amounts of fossil fuels with renewable materials, thereby increasing energy security and stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. At the same time, concerns are being raised regarding the sustainability of large-scale dedicated biomass plantations with regard to extensive mono- cultures, irrigation and fertilization requirements. We use a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) including current agriculture to simulate the effects of rising competition for land when an additional spatially extensive production system for a new commodity, bioenergy, is added to the global land use mix under continued increase in global population size as well as per capita energy consumption. How much land is needed for a significant bioenergy generation if sufficient food production is warranted and what are the consequences for the terrestrial biosphere? To assess the potential impacts of a significant global bioenergy sector, we produced a selection of scenarios based on prior assumptions of total bioenergy demand, progress in conversion technologies and the availability of cultivable land limited by food requirements and biodiversity protection. We present the corresponding land use patterns as well as their impacts on the terrestrial carbon balance, evapotranspiration fluxes and irrigation demand. We find that an area of up to 50 % the size of current agricultural land is needed for the cultivation of ligno-cellulosic crops to satisfy high bioenergy demands. Carbon fluxes into the atmosphere caused by the removal of natural vegetation can equal those of 8 years of fossil fuel combustion.

  13. A Simplified GIS Approach to Modeling Global Leaf Water Isoscapes

    PubMed Central

    West, Jason B.; Sobek, Adam; Ehleringer, James R.

    2008-01-01

    The stable hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios of organic and inorganic materials record biological and physical processes through the effects of substrate isotopic composition and fractionations that occur as reactions proceed. At large scales, these processes can exhibit spatial predictability because of the effects of coherent climatic patterns over the Earth's surface. Attempts to model spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios of water have been made for decades. Leaf water has a particular importance for some applications, including plant organic materials that record spatial and temporal climate variability and that may be a source of food for migrating animals. It is also an important source of the variability in the isotopic composition of atmospheric gases. Although efforts to model global-scale leaf water isotope ratio spatial variation have been made (especially of δ18O), significant uncertainty remains in models and their execution across spatial domains. We introduce here a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach to the generation of global, spatially-explicit isotope landscapes ( = isoscapes) of “climate normal” leaf water isotope ratios. We evaluate the approach and the resulting products by comparison with simulation model outputs and point measurements, where obtainable, over the Earth's surface. The isoscapes were generated using biophysical models of isotope fractionation and spatially continuous precipitation isotope and climate layers as input model drivers. Leaf water δ18O isoscapes produced here generally agreed with latitudinal averages from GCM/biophysical model products, as well as mean values from point measurements. These results show global-scale spatial coherence in leaf water isotope ratios, similar to that observed for precipitation and validate the GIS approach to modeling leaf water isotopes. These results demonstrate that relatively simple models of leaf water enrichment combined with spatially

  14. On Vertically Global, Horizontally Local Models for Astrophysical Disks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNally, Colin P.; Pessah, Martin E.

    2015-10-01

    Disks with a barotropic equilibrium structure, for which the pressure is only a function of the density, rotate on cylinders in the presence of a gravitational potential, so that the angular frequency of such a disk is independent of height. Such disks with barotropic equilibria can be approximately modeled using the shearing box framework, representing a small disk volume with height-independent angular frequency. If the disk is in baroclinic equilibrium, the angular frequency does generally depend on height, and it is thus necessary to go beyond the standard shearing box approach. In this paper, we show that given a global disk model, it is possible to develop approximate models that are local in horizontal planes without an expansion in height with shearing-periodic boundary conditions. We refer to the resulting framework as the vertically global shearing box (VGSB). These models can be non-axisymmetric for globally barotropic equilibria but should be axisymmetric for globally baroclinic equilibria. We provide explicit equations for this VGSB which can be implemented in standard magnetohydrodynamic codes by generalizing the shearing-periodic boundary conditions to allow for a height-dependent angular frequency and shear rate. We also discuss the limitations that result from the radial approximations that are needed in order to impose height-dependent shearing periodic boundary conditions. We illustrate the potential of this framework by studying a vertical shear instability and examining the modes associated with the magnetorotational instability.

  15. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  16. Applying modeling Results in designing a global tropospheric experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    A set of field experiments and advanced modeling studies which provide a strategy for a program of global tropospheric experiments was identified. An expanded effort to develop space applications for trospheric air quality monitoring and studies was recommended. The tropospheric ozone, carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles are addressed. Stratospheric-tropospheric exchange is discussed. Fast photochemical processes in the free troposphere are considered.

  17. A Global Model of Paradigm Development in Sociology of Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahler, Fred

    1985-01-01

    Education is usually seen as an institution aimed at providing the skilled human resources needed for economic growth. Education should also help future citizens develop a better and more just world. A global model that stresses the cultural component of the interrelation between society and education is presented. (RM)

  18. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  19. The Research University in Transition: The Emerging Global Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohrman, Kathryn; Ma, Wanhua; Baker, David

    2008-01-01

    In a knowledge intensive society, the research university is a key institution for social and economic development. Focused on the discovery of new knowledge and the development of the next generation of scholars, research universities are also becoming more international in focus. This article presents the Emerging Global Model (EGM) of the…

  20. Representation of fires and fire emissions in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechony, O.; Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Wildfires influence global climate through emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and aerosol precursors. There is therefore an ongoing effort to incorporate representation of wildfires in climate models. We have developed an algorithm that allows determination of worldwide flammability conditions from vegetation density and a set of meteorological parameters: precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature. These parameters are readily available, and are well verified on a global scale. Given a distribution of ignition sources, this method provides the distribution of fire counts, which is easily verified against satellite records. Further, using techniques commonly applied to satellite data, modeled fire counts are used to estimate variations in fire emissions. We use two ignition source models: one incorporates anthropogenic and lightning ignitions, and anthropogenic fire suppression; the other assumes ubiquitous ignition source. We evaluate the model using GPCP precipitation, NCEP/NCAR temperature and relative humidity, and MODIS Leaf Area Index as a proxy for global vegetation density. Information on global lightning distribution is derived from the OTD satellite sensor. For estimating the number of anthropogenic ignition sources, we incorporate the Venevsky et al. [2002] method. Effectiveness of fire suppression is assumed to increase exponentially with increasing population density. With both ignition models the algorithm reproduces the spatial distribution and the seasonal variations of global fires observed with MODIS and VIRS satellite instruments reasonably well. Accounting for anthropogenic influence has a profound advantage in heavily populated areas, where anthropogenic effects dominate. Global monthly carbon fire emissions, estimated from modeled fire counts using emissions-per-firecount maps derived by van der Werf et al. [2006], are in good correspondence with GFED estimates. The ability of the model to reproduce long-term interannual

  1. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  2. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a global, continuous in value and gradient, representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities and temperatures in the plasmasphere for five ion species. These and other works enable a new more robust empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  3. Global Climate Models of Titan, Uranus, and Neptune

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedson, A. J.; Orton, G.; West, R.

    2007-12-01

    We present the formulation of and some results from global climate models for Titan, Uranus, and Neptune. The model for Titan is a fully three-dimensional, modified version of NCAR's terrestrial global climate model, CAM-3. It includes forcing by Saturn's gravitational tides, a treatment of the planetary boundary layer and surface interactions, scattering and absorption of short-wave radiation, and absorption and emission of long-wave radiation. The physical properties and distribution of aerosols are constrained by Cassini observations. The climate models for Uranus and Neptune are two-dimensional, radiative-diffusive models which calculate sensible heat fluxes and latent-heat fluxes due to ortho-para hydrogen conversion in terms of a mixing-length formulation. The vertical pressure range in these models extends from 100 bars up to 0.1 mbar. Our main goal for the 2-d models is to establish the relative roles of sensible and ortho-para latent-heat fluxes in transporting heat laterally and vertically. We are also currently developing three-dimensional models of Uranus and Neptune based on modification of CAM-3. We will discuss how the parameterization of heat fluxes in the 2-d models can be adapted to model small-scale convection in the presence of ortho-para conversion in the 3-d models. This research is supported by the NASA Outer Planet Research Program.

  4. A computer model of global thermospheric winds and temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Killeen, T. L.; Roble, R. G.; Spencer, N. W.

    1987-01-01

    Output data from the NCAR Thermospheric GCM and a vector-spherical-harmonic (VSH) representation of the wind field are used in constructing a computer model of time-dependent global horizontal vector neutral wind and temperature fields at altitude 130-300 km. The formulation of the VSH model is explained in detail, and some typical results obtained with a preliminary version (applicable to December solstice at solar maximum) are presented graphically. Good agreement with DE-2 satellite measurements is demonstrated.

  5. Global health educational engagement - a tale of two models.

    PubMed

    Rassiwala, Jasmine; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Kupershtok, Mania; Castillo, Frank M; Evert, Jessica

    2013-11-01

    Global health learning experiences for medical students sit at the intersection of capacity building, ethics, and education. As interest in global health programs during medical school continues to rise, Northwestern University Alliance for International Development, a student-led and -run organization at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, has provided students with the opportunity to engage in two contrasting models of global health educational engagement.Eleven students, accompanied by two Northwestern physicians, participated in a one-week trip to Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in December 2010. This model allowed learning within a familiar Western framework, facilitated high-volume care, and focused on hands-on experiences. This approach aimed to provide basic medical services to the local population.In July 2011, 10 other Feinberg students participated in a four-week program in Puerto Escondido, Mexico, which was coordinated by Child Family Health International, a nonprofit organization that partners with native health care providers. A longer duration, homestays, and daily language classes hallmarked this experience. An intermediary, third-party organization served to bridge the cultural and ethical gap between visiting medical students and the local population. This program focused on providing a holistic cultural experience for rotating students.Establishing comprehensive global health curricula requires finding a balance between providing medical students with a fulfilling educational experience and honoring the integrity of populations that are medically underserved. This article provides a rich comparison between two global health educational models and aims to inform future efforts to standardize global health education curricula. PMID:24072106

  6. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  7. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  8. Sequestering by global symmetries in Calabi-Yau string models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrey, Christopher; Scrucca, Claudio A.

    2011-10-01

    We study the possibility of realizing an effective sequestering between visible and hidden sectors in generic heterotic string models, generalizing previous work on orbifold constructions to smooth Calabi-Yau compactifications. In these theories, genuine sequestering is spoiled by interactions mixing chiral multiplets of the two sectors in the effective Kähler potential. These effective interactions however have a specific current-current-like structure and can be interpreted from an M-theory viewpoint as coming from the exchange of heavy vector multiplets. One may then attempt to inhibit the emergence of generic soft scalar masses in the visible sector by postulating a suitable global symmetry in the dynamics of the hidden sector. This mechanism is however not straightforward to implement, because the structure of the effective contact terms and the possible global symmetries is a priori model-dependent. To assess whether there is any robust and generic option, we study the full dependence of the Kähler potential on the moduli and the matter fields. This is well known for orbifold models, where it always leads to a symmetric scalar manifold, but much less understood for Calabi-Yau models, where it generically leads to a non-symmetric scalar manifold. We then examine the possibility of an effective sequestering by global symmetries, and argue that whereas for orbifold models this can be put at work rather naturally, for Calabi-Yau models it can only be implemented in rather peculiar circumstances.

  9. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  10. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  11. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  12. Comparing global soil models to soil carbon profile databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koven, C. D.; Harden, J. W.; He, Y.; Lawrence, D. M.; Nave, L. E.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Treat, C.; Sulman, B. N.; Kane, E. S.

    2015-12-01

    As global soil models begin to consider the dynamics of carbon below the surface layers, it is crucial to assess the realism of these models. We focus on the vertical profiles of soil C predicted across multiple biomes form the Community Land Model (CLM4.5), using different values for a parameter that controls the rate of decomposition at depth versus at the surface, and compare these to observationally-derived diagnostics derived from the International Soil Carbon Database (ISCN) to assess the realism of model predictions of carbon depthattenuation, and the ability of observations to provide a constraint on rates of decomposition at depth.

  13. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    PubMed Central

    Britton, Tom; House, Thomas; Lloyd, Alun L.; Mollison, Denis; Riley, Steven; Trapman, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way? PMID:25843384

  14. Bacteria in the ECHAM5-HAM global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sesartic, A.; Lohmann, U.; Storelvmo, T.

    2011-01-01

    Bacteria are the most active naturally occuring ice nuclei (IN) due to the ice nucleation active proteins on their surface, which serve as active sites for ice nucleation. Their potential impact on clouds and precipitation is not well known and needs to be investigated. Bacteria as a new aerosol species were introduced into the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5-HAM. The inclusion of bacteria acting as IN in a GCM leads to only minor changes in cloud formation and precipitation on a global level, however, changes in the liquid water path and ice water path can be observed, specifically in the boreal regions where tundra and forests act as sources of bacteria.

  15. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  16. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  17. Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

    SciTech Connect

    Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

    2009-02-15

    A global optical model potential (GDP08) for {sup 3}He projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of {sup 3}He from targets of 40{<=}A{sub T}{<=}209 at incident energies of 30{<=}E{sub inc}{<=}217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of {sup 3}H as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for {sup 3}He-nucleus and {sup 3}H-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6{<=}A{sub T}{<=}232 at incident energies of 4{<=}E{sub inc}{<=}450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus {sup 40}Ca, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58 < or approx. A{sub T} < or approx. 120 at E{sub inc}<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

  18. A Global Optical Model Potential for A=3 Projectiles

    SciTech Connect

    Pang, Dr. Dan Yang; Roussel-Chomaz, Dr. Patricia; Savajols, Dr. Herve; Varner Jr, Robert L; Wolski, R.

    2009-01-01

    A global optical model potential (GDP08) for 3He pro jectile has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of 3 He from targets of 40<=AT<=209 at incident energies between 30<=Einc<=217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential param- eters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of the 3H as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for the 3He- and 3H-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6<=AT<=232 at incident energies between 4<=Einc<=450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus 40 Ca, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58<=AT<=120 at Einc < 30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

  19. Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

    2009-02-01

    A global optical model potential (GDP08) for He3 projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of He3 from targets of 40⩽AT⩽209 at incident energies of 30⩽Einc⩽217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of H3 as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for He3-nucleus and H3-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6⩽AT⩽232 at incident energies of 4⩽Einc⩽450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus Ca40, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58≲AT≲120 at Einc<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

  20. [Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    1999-01-01

    This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.

  1. Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wada, Yoshi; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater forms an integral part of the global hydrological cycle and is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. It buffers variable recharge rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of drought as well as evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. Moreover, although lateral groundwater flows are often slow, they cross topographic and administrative boundaries at appreciable rates. Despite the importance of groundwater, most global scale hydrological models do not consider surface water-groundwater interactions or include a lateral groundwater flow component. The main reason of this omission is the lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information needed to arrive at a more realistic representation of the groundwater system, i.e. including information on aquifer depths and the presence of confining layers. The latter holds vital information on the accessibility and quality of the global groundwater resource. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model comprising confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. Aquifers properties were based on newly derived estimates of aquifer depths (de Graaf et al., 2014b) and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. They were further parameterized using available global datasets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014). In a sensitivity analysis the model was run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and corresponding recharge (Wada et al., 2012, de Graaf et al. 2014a) were evaluated. The resulting estimates of groundwater depletion are lower than

  2. Modeling of the Lunar Global Seismic Wave Propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toyokuni, G.; Takenaka, H.; Ishihara, Y.; Zhao, D.

    2012-12-01

    We calculate global seismic wave propagation on cross sections of the realistic whole Lunar structure models. The U.S. Apollo missions installed five seismometers on the lunar surface. Seismograms obtained during 1969 to 1977 have widely been used for investigation of the lunar interior. For example, many researchers have been working on construction of the 1-D structure models (e.g., Nakamura, 1983, textit{JGR}; Garcia et al., 2011, textit{PEPI}). Zhao et al. (2008, textit{Chinese Sci. Bull.}) further estimated the 3-D velocity structure of the Moon by applying seismic tomography to the moonquake traveltime data. Now the Japanese next lunar mission ``SELENE-II'' is planning installation of broad-band seismometers, which are expected to greatly increase resolution of the lunar interior images. Looking back on investigation history of the Earth's interior, our knowledge has been enhanced by mutual progress of observation and numerical methods. Increased enthusiasm for the Moon exploration in recent years strongly requires developing a method for numerical modeling of global seismic wave propagation based on our current knowledge of the lunar interior. We have been constructing numerical schemes using the finite-difference method (FDM) for accurate and efficient modeling of global seismic wave propagation through realistic Earth models with lateral heterogeneity (e.g., Toyokuni et al., 2005, textit{GRL}; Toyokuni & Takenaka, 2006, textit{EPS}). Our scheme calculates the 3-D equations of seismic waves in spherical coordinates only on a 2-D cross section of the whole Earth including a seismic source and receivers (``spherical 2.5-D FDM''), which enables global waveform modeling with a similar computation time and memory as for 2-D modeling with consideration of full 3-D geometrical spreading. This time we apply it to model global seismic wave propagation in the whole Moon. In the presentation, we will show numerical examples using 1-D models by Nakamura (1983, textit

  3. Prediction of Plate Motions and Stresses from Global Dynamic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, A.; Holt, W. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predicting plate motions correctly has been a challenge for global dynamic models. In addition to predicting plate motions, a successful model must also explain the following features: plate rigidity, plate boundary zone deformation, as well as intraplate stress patterns and deformation. In this study we show that, given constraints from shallow lithosphere structure, history of subduction, and first order features from whole mantle tomography, it is possible to achieve a high level of accuracy in predicting plate motions and lithosphere deformation within plate boundary zones. Best-fit dynamic models presently provide an RMS velocity misfit of global surface motions (compared at 63,000 spaced points in the GSRM NNR model [Kreemer et al., 2006]) of order 1 cm/yr. We explore the relative contribution of shallow lithosphere structure vs. whole mantle convection in affecting surface deformation as well as plate motions. We show that shallow lithosphere structure that includes topography and lateral density variations in the lithosphere is an integral part of global force balance. Its inclusion in geodynamic models is essential in order to match observations of surface motions and stresses, particularly within continental zones of deformation. We also argue that stiff slabs may not be as important as has been previously claimed in controlling plate motion and lithosphere deformation. An important result of this study is the calibration of absolute stress magnitudes in the lithosphere, verified through benchmarking using whole mantle convection models. Given additional constraints of the matching of surface motions, we also calibrate the absolute effective lithosphere viscosities. Best-fit models require plates with effective viscosities of order 1023 Pa-s, with plate boundary zones possessing effective viscosities 1-3 orders of magnitude weaker. Given deviatoric stress magnitudes within the lithosphere of order 10 - 60 MPa, our global models predict less than 2 mm

  4. Development of human impact modeling in global hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.

    2015-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments comparing water availability with water use. These first efforts mostly relied on statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by proxy by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global hydrology, e.g.: confronting yearly water demand with water availability using a water scarcity index; calculating a water scarcity index at monthly time scale; adding groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. A number of challenges are identified that hamper the further development of current water use modelling as well as prohibit realistic modelling of future water use. We also speculate on pathways to overcome these challenges.

  5. Global atmospheric and ocean modeling on the connection machine

    SciTech Connect

    Atlas, S.R.

    1993-12-01

    This paper describes the high-level architecture of two parallel global climate models: an atmospheric model based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) SKYHI model, and an ocean model descended from the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean general circulation model. These parallel models are being developed as part of a long-term research collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the GFDL. The goal of this collaboration is to develop parallel global climate models which are modular in structure, portable across a wide variety of machine architectures and programming paradigms, and provide an appropriate starting point for a fully coupled model. Several design considerations have emerged as central to achieving these goals. These include the expression of the models in terms of mathematical primitives such as stencil operators, to facilitate performance optimization on different computational platforms; the isolation of communication from computation to allow flexible implementation of a single code under message-passing or data parallel programming paradigms; and judicious memory management to achieve modularity without memory explosion costs.

  6. A Comparative Analysis of Global Cropping Systems Models and Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, W. B.; You, L.; Wood, S.; Wood-Sichra, U.; Wu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural practices have dramatically altered the land cover of the Earth, but the spatial extent and intensity of these practices is often difficult to catalogue. Cropland accounts for nearly 15 million km2 of the Earth's land cover - amounting to 12% of the Earth's ice-free land surface - yet information on the distribution and performance of specific crops is often available only through national or sub-national statistics. While remote sensing products offer spatially disaggregated information, those currently available on a global scale are ill-suited for many applications due to the limited separation of crop types within the area classified as cropland. Recently, however, there have been multiple independent efforts to incorporate the detailed information available from statistical surveys with supplemental spatial information to produce a spatially explicit global dataset specific to individual cropss for the year 2000. While these datasets provide analysts and decision makers with improved information on global cropping systems, the final global cropping maps differ from one another substantially. This study aims to explore and quantify systematic similarities and differences between four major global cropping systems products: the monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRAC2000) dataset, the spatial production allocation model (SPAM), the global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) dataset, and the dataset developed by Monfreda et al., 2008. The analysis explores not only the final cropping systems maps but also the interdependencies of each product, methodological differences and modeling assumptions, which will provide users with information vital for discerning between datasets in selecting a product appropriate for each intended application.

  7. Modeling the fate of methane hydrates under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kretschmer, Kerstin; Biastoch, Arne; Rüpke, Lars; Burwicz, Ewa

    2015-05-01

    Large amounts of methane hydrate locked up within marine sediments are vulnerable to climate change. Changes in bottom water temperatures may lead to their destabilization and the release of methane into the water column or even the atmosphere. In a multimodel approach, the possible impact of destabilizing methane hydrates onto global climate within the next century is evaluated. The focus is set on changing bottom water temperatures to infer the response of the global methane hydrate inventory to future climate change. Present and future bottom water temperatures are evaluated by the combined use of hindcast high-resolution ocean circulation simulations and climate modeling for the next century. The changing global hydrate inventory is computed using the parameterized transfer function recently proposed by Wallmann et al. (2012). We find that the present-day world's total marine methane hydrate inventory is estimated to be 1146 Gt of methane carbon. Within the next 100 years this global inventory may be reduced by ˜0.03% (releasing ˜473 Mt methane from the seafloor). Compared to the present-day annual emissions of anthropogenic methane, the amount of methane released from melting hydrates by 2100 is small and will not have a major impact on the global climate. On a regional scale, ocean bottom warming over the next 100 years will result in a relatively large decrease in the methane hydrate deposits, with the Arctic and Blake Ridge region, offshore South Carolina, being most affected.

  8. Rapid Geometric Correction of SSC Terrasar-X Images with Direct Georeferencing, Global dem and Global Geoid Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vassilaki, D. I.; Stamos, A. A.; Ioannidis, C.

    2013-05-01

    In this paper a process for rapid geometric correction of slant range SAR images is presented. The process is completely independent of ground control information thanks to the direct georeferencing method capabilities offered by the TerraSAR-X sensor. The process is especially rapid due to the use of readily available global DEMs and global geoid models. An additional advantage of this process is its flexibility. If a more accurate local DEM or local geoid model is readily available it can be used instead of the global DEM or global geoid model. The process is applied to geometrically correct a SSC TerraSAR-X image over a sub-urban mountainous area using the SRTM and the ASTER global DEMs and the EGM2008 global geoid model. Additionally two local, more accurate DEMs, are used. The accuracy of the process is evaluated by independent check points.

  9. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  10. Can global hydrological models reproduce large scale river flood regimes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

    2013-04-01

    River flooding remains one of the most severe natural hazards. On the one hand, major flood events pose a serious threat to human well-being, causing deaths and considerable economic damage. On the other hand, the periodic occurrence of flood pulses is crucial to maintain the functioning of riverine floodplains and wetlands, and to preserve the ecosystem services the latter provide. In many regions, river floods reveal a distinct seasonality, i.e. they occur at a particular time during the year. This seasonality is related to regionally dominant flood generating processes which can be expressed in river flood types. While in data-rich regions (esp. Europe and North America) the analysis of flood regimes can be based on observed river discharge time series, this data is sparse or lacking in many other regions of the world. This gap of knowledge can be filled by global modeling approaches. However, to date most global modeling studies have focused on mean annual or monthly water availability and their change over time while simulating discharge extremes, both floods and droughts, still remains a challenge for large scale hydrological models. This study will explore the ability of the global hydrological model WaterGAP3 to simulate the large scale patterns of river flood regimes, represented by seasonal pattern and the dominant flood type. WaterGAP3 simulates the global terrestrial water balance on a 5 arc minute spatial grid (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) at a daily time step. The model accounts for human interference on river flow, i.e. water abstraction for various purposes, e.g. irrigation, and flow regulation by large dams and reservoirs. Our analysis will provide insight in the general ability of global hydrological models to reproduce river flood regimes and thus will promote the creation of a global map of river flood regimes to provide a spatially inclusive and comprehensive picture. Understanding present-day flood regimes can support both flood risk

  11. Understanding the processes of tropical cyclogenesis in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Figueroa, Marangelly

    This thesis is the result of research activity performed from 2005 to 2009 at the Laboratory for Atmospheres of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), under the guidance of Dr. Oreste Reale. The present study describes some fundamental properties occurring in global models in order to spontaneously produce tropical cyclones in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA). The NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model (GEOS-4 and GEOS-5), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) global model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Nature Run outputs were analyzed in a set of diagnostic studies to understand how different global models with different configurations can produce tropical cyclogenesis. Diagnostics performed were classified in two groups according to the experimental configurations: simulations dependent on initializations (GEOS-4, GEOS-5 - version 2.0, and GFS) and free running simulations (ECMWF Nature Run). Objectives methods were developed to identify some controlling factors in the development of tropical cyclones and were applied to all the data generated for this study, focusing mainly on the ETNA. Global model outputs of nine tropical systems during three Atlantic hurricane seasons (2004-2006) were used and compared. The verification of the Kuo necessary condition for barotropic instability and the kinetic energy transfer across spatial scales are found to be important mechanisms by which tropical cyclogenesis can develop in global models. The main result of this work is that a vertically-aligned barotropically unstable column appears during cyclogenesis, predominantly controlled by the large scale forcing. With the exception of the Nature Run, which is not dependent on initialization, the actual roles of the Data Assimilation System (DAS) and the forecasting system cannot be rigorously separated in these experiments. Therefore, in the third part of this thesis the impact

  12. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  13. Global discharge modelling experiments with the TIGGE archive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Bogner, Konrad; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Richardson, David; Di Giuseppe, Francesca

    2015-04-01

    In this study we derived and analysed global ensemble discharge forecasts for TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models using the modelling and technical infrastructure available at ECMWF. We focussed on the global characteristics of discharge with special emphasis on the analysis of errors stemming from different segments of the production system and also on the post-processing possibilities of the data. The modelling work was based on the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchange over Land) land-surface model used operationally at ECMWF. The offline version of HTESSEL was extended to accommodate ensemble forecast runs from TIGGE and the climate and initial conditions were taken from ERA Interim. Finally the model output runoff was coupled to the CaMa-Flood distributed global river routing model to provide river discharge. The initial state of the river network for the routing was provided by 30-year ERA Interim HTESSEL integration coupled with CaMa-Flood. The production of the daily discharge forecasts up to 10 days covered the period 2008-2013 for four TIGGE models (ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and CMA) for about 400 global river catchments with upstream area over 40000 km2. The impact of the HTESSEL atmospheric forcing on the discharge was investigated as it played a crucial role in the experiments. The sensitivity analysis to the forcing parameter choices showed some interesting behaviour in the impact of wind, radiation, temperature, humidity and precipitation on the global discharge forecasts. The positive influence of the improved ERA Interim precipitation forcing (GPCP v2.0 corrected) on the quality of the initial river flow in the forecast routing was also highlighted. To help interpreting the discharge performance two of the HTESSEL atmospheric forcing parameters, 2m temperature and 24-hour total precipitation were verified and the performance characteristics explored using four TIGGE models and the equal weight multi-model

  14. Global Characterization of Model Parameter Space Using Information Topology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Transtrum, Mark

    A generic parameterized model is a mapping between parameters and data and is naturally interpreted as a prediction manifold embedded in data space. In this interpretation, known as Information Geometry, the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) is a Riemannian metric that measures the identifiability of the model parameters. Varying the experimental conditions (e.g., times at which measurements are made) alters both the FIM and the geometric properties of the model. However, several global features of the model manifold (e.g., edges and corners) are invariant to changes in experimental conditions as long as the FIM is not singular. Invariance of these features to changing experimental conditions generates an ''Information Topology'' that globally characterizes a model's parameter space and reflects the underlying physical principles from which the model was derived. Understanding a model's information topology can give insights into the emergent physics that controls a system's collective behavior, identify reduced models and describe the relationship among them, and determine which parameter combinations will be difficult to identify for various experimental conditions.

  15. Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

    1995-01-01

    In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

  16. Mouse Transient Global Ischemia Two-Vessel Occlusion Model

    PubMed Central

    Pontarelli, Fabrizio; Ofengeim, Dimitry; Zukin, R. Suzanne; Jonas, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    Transient global ischemia in rodents induces delayed death of hippocampal CA1 neurons, as well as in some hilar neurons of the dentate gyrus, medium aspiny neurons of the striatum, pyramidal neurons in neocortical layers II, V and VI, and Purkinje neurons of the cerebellum. In contrast to focal ischemia that mimics regional stroke in humans, this model of global ischemia mimics the brain injury that occurs after human cardiac arrest. Early events include caspase activation, cleavage of anti-death Bcl-2 family proteins and large mitochondrial channel activity. Genetically engineered mice provide opportunities for study such as the knock-in mouse expressing a caspase-resistant form of Bcl-xL found to exhibit markedly reduced mitochondrial channel activity and reduced vulnerability to ischemia-induced neuronal death1. It is therefore relevant to adapt and develop a simple protocol for producing transient global ischemia in mouse2. The two-vessel occlusion model has been specifically developed to provide optimal outcomes in mouse and offers several advantages over the four-vessel occlusion model traditionally used in rat including the relative ease of the procedure as well as only a single day of surgery. However it should be noted that this procedure has a higher morbidity rate compared to other ischemia models as well as a higher degree of variability. These two disadvantages necessitate the use of a larger cohort of animals, which for many healthy breeding transgenic animals is a non-deterring factor.

  17. A global model study of silane/hydrogen discharges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danko, Stephan; Bluhm, Dirk; Bolsinger, Valentin; Dobrygin, Wladislaw; Schmidt, Oliver; Brinkmann, Ralf Peter

    2013-10-01

    An algorithm to automatically build a general global chemical model on the basis of a set of chemical reactions is developed for capacitively coupled discharges. The methodology is applied to silane/hydrogen discharge regimes relevant for the deposition of microcrystalline silicon thin films for solar cell fabrication. The input parameters of the model are merely the process conditions such as absorbed power, pressure, gas flow, gas mixture and gap distance as well as the electron energy distribution function. Computational time is less than 30 s for an analytical description of the electron energy distribution and less than 40 s in the case of a look-up table for one set of process parameters for a silane/hydrogen gas mixture. The electron Boltzmann equation solver BOLSIG+ is used to determine the most appropriate electron energy distribution depending on different process conditions of this application. The numerical results of the global model are compared with measurements of silane depletion from the literature and show good agreement. A wide range of process conditions relevant for the deposition of thin-film silicon is covered. An analysis of the effect of different process conditions on the resulting plasma composition is performed. This shows the potential of a global model for silane/hydrogen discharges.

  18. Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2004-01-01

    This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

  19. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  20. Modeling Selective Availability of the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braasch, Michael

    1990-01-01

    As the development of the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) continues, there will increasingly be the need for a software centered signal model. This model must accurately generate the observed pseudorange which would typically be encountered. The observed pseudorange varies from the true geometric (slant) range due to range measurement errors. Errors in range measurement stem from a variety of hardware and environment factors. These errors are classified as either deterministic or random and, where appropriate, their models are summarized. Of particular interest is the model for Selective Availability which is derived from actual GPS data. The procedure for the determination of this model, known as the System Identification Theory, is briefly outlined. The synthesis of these error sources into the final signal model is given along with simulation results.

  1. On the global dynamics of a chronic myelogenous leukemia model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishchenko, Alexander P.; Starkov, Konstantin E.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper we analyze some features of global dynamics of a three-dimensional chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) model with the help of the stability analysis and the localization method of compact invariant sets. The behavior of CML model is defined by concentrations of three cellpopulations circulating in the blood: naive T cells, effector T cells specific to CML and CML cancer cells. We prove that the dynamics of the CML system around the tumor-free equilibrium point is unstable. Further, we compute ultimate upper bounds for all three cell populations and provide the existence conditions of the positively invariant polytope. One ultimate lower bound is obtained as well. Moreover, we describe the iterative localization procedure for refining localization bounds; this procedure is based on cyclic using of localizing functions. Applying this procedure we obtain conditions under which the internal tumor equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical analyses are supplied by results of the numerical simulation.

  2. Global land use data for integrated assessment modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Ramankutty, Navin

    2005-12-12

    Changes in land use and land cover have been one of the major drivers of global change over the last three centuries. Detailed spatially-explicit data sets characterizing these historical land cover changes are now emerging. By synthesizing remotely-sensed land cover classification data sets with historical land use census data, our research group has developed comprehensive databases of historical land use and land cover change. Moreover, we are building estimates of the land suitability for agriculture to predict the constraints on future land use. In this project, we have interacted with the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University, to adapt our land use data for use with the GTAP database, a baseline database widely used by the integrated assessment modeling community. Moreover, we have developed an interactive website for providing these newly emerging land use data products for the integrated assessment (IA) community and to the climate modeling community.

  3. Flood hazard maps from SAR data and global hydrodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giustarini, Laura; Chini, Marci; Hostache, Renaud; Matgen, Patrick; Pappenberger, Florian; Bally, Phillippe

    2015-04-01

    With flood consequences likely to amplify because of growing population and ongoing accumulation of assets in flood-prone areas, global flood hazard and risk maps are greatly needed for improving flood preparedness at large scale. At the same time, with the rapidly growing archives of SAR images of floods, there is a high potential of making use of these images for global and regional flood management. In this framework, an original method is presented to integrate global flood inundation modeling and microwave remote sensing. It takes advantage of the combination of the time and space continuity of a global inundation model with the high spatial resolution of satellite observations. The availability of model simulations over a long time period offers the opportunity to estimate flood non-exceedance probabilities in a robust way. The probabilities can later be attributed to historical satellite observations. SAR-derived flood extent maps with their associated non-exceedance probabilities are then combined to generate flood hazard maps with a spatial resolution equal to that of the satellite images, which is most of the time higher than that of a global inundation model. The method can be applied to any area of interest in the world, provided that a sufficient number of relevant remote sensing images are available. We applied the method on the Severn River (UK) and on the Zambezi River (Mozambique), where large archives of Envisat flood images can be exploited. The global ECMWF flood inundation model is considered for computing the statistics of extreme events. A comparison with flood hazard maps estimated with in situ measured discharge is carried out. An additional analysis has been performed on the Severn River, using high resolution SAR data from the COSMO-SkyMed SAR constellation, acquired for a single flood event (one flood map per day between 27/11/2012 and 4/12/2012). The results showed that it is vital to observe the peak of the flood. However, a single

  4. Evaluation of annual, global seismicity forecasts, including ensemble models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taroni, Matteo; Zechar, Jeremy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2013-04-01

    In 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of the Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) initiated a prototype global earthquake forecast experiment. Three models participated in this experiment for 2009, 2010 and 2011—each model forecast the number of earthquakes above magnitude 6 in 1x1 degree cells that span the globe. Here we use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed seismicity. We compare model performance with statistical tests and a new method based on the peer-to-peer gambling score. The results of the comparisons are used to build ensemble models that are a weighted combination of the individual models. Notably, in these experiments the ensemble model always performs significantly better than the single best-performing model. Our results indicate the following: i) time-varying forecasts, if not updated after each major shock, may not provide significant advantages with respect to time-invariant models in 1-year forecast experiments; ii) the spatial distribution seems to be the most important feature to characterize the different forecasting performances of the models; iii) the interpretation of consistency tests may be misleading because some good models may be rejected while trivial models may pass consistency tests; iv) a proper ensemble modeling seems to be a valuable procedure to get the best performing model for practical purposes.

  5. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  6. A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guenther, Alex; Hewitt, C. Nicholas; Erickson, David; Fall, Ray; Geron, Chris; Graedel, Tom; Harley, Peter; Klinger, Lee; Lerdau, Manuel; McKay, W. A.; Pierce, Tom; Scholes, Bob; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Tallamraju, Raja; Taylor, John; Zimmerman, Pat

    1995-05-01

    Numerical assessments of global air quality and potential changes in atmospheric chemical constituents require estimates of the surface fluxes of a variety of trace gas species. We have developed a global model to estimate emissions of volatile organic compounds from natural sources (NVOC). Methane is not considered here and has been reviewed in detail elsewhere. The model has a highly resolved spatial grid (0.5°×0.5° latitude/longitude) and generates hourly average emission estimates. Chemical species are grouped into four categories: isoprene, monoterpenes, other reactive VOC (ORVOC), and other VOC (OVOC). NVOC emissions from oceans are estimated as a function of geophysical variables from a general circulation model and ocean color satellite data. Emissions from plant foliage are estimated from ecosystem specific biomass and emission factors and algorithms describing light and temperature dependence of NVOC emissions. Foliar density estimates are based on climatic variables and satellite data. Temporal variations in the model are driven by monthly estimates of biomass and temperature and hourly light estimates. The annual global VOC flux is estimated to be 1150 Tg C, composed of 44% isoprene, 11% monoterpenes, 22.5% other reactive VOC, and 22.5% other VOC. Large uncertainties exist for each of these estimates and particularly for compounds other than isoprene and monoterpenes. Tropical woodlands (rain forest, seasonal, drought-deciduous, and savanna) contribute about half of all global natural VOC emissions. Croplands, shrublands and other woodlands contribute 10-20% apiece. Isoprene emissions calculated for temperate regions are as much as a factor of 5 higher than previous estimates.

  7. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  8. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  9. Correction to "Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model"

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.; Koster, Randal D.; Kau, K. M.; Aoki, Teruo; Sud, Yogesh C.; Yamazaki, Takeshi; Motoyoshi, Hiroki; Kokdama, Yuji

    2012-01-01

    The website information describing the forcing meteorological data used for the land surface model (LSM) simulation, which were observed at an Automated Meteorological Station CAWS) at the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), was missing from the text. The 1-hourly data were obtained from the website of Kisyoutoukeijouhou (Information for available JMA-observed meteorological data in the past) on the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jpijmaimenulreport.html). The measurement height information of 59.5 m for the anemometer at the Sapporo Observatory was also obtained from the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/report.html). In addition, the converted 10-m wind speed, based on the AWS/JMA data, was further converted to a 2-m wind speed prior to its use with the land model as a usual treatment of off-line Catchment simulation. Please ignore the ice absorption data on the website mentioned in paragraph [15] which was not used for our calculations (but the data on the website was mostly the same as the estimated ice absorption coefficients by the following method because they partially used the same data by Warren [1984]). We calculated the ice absorption coefficients with the method mentioned in the same paragraph, for which some of the refractive index data by Warren [1984] were used and then interpolated between wavelengths, and also mentioned in paragraph [20] for the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) ranges. The optical data we used were interpolated between wavelengths as necessary.

  10. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI