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Sample records for lead time bias

  1. The right side? Under time pressure, approach motivation leads to right-oriented bias.

    PubMed

    Roskes, Marieke; Sligte, Daniel; Shalvi, Shaul; De Dreu, Carsten K W

    2011-11-01

    Approach motivation, a focus on achieving positive outcomes, is related to relative left-hemispheric brain activation, which translates to a variety of right-oriented behavioral biases. In two studies, we found that approach-motivated individuals display a right-oriented bias, but only when they are forced to act quickly. In a task in which they had to divide lines into two equal parts, approach-motivated individuals bisected the line at a point farther to the right than avoidance-motivated individuals did, but only when they worked under high time pressure. In our analysis of all Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup penalty shoot-outs, we found that goalkeepers were two times more likely to dive to the right than to the left when their team was behind, a situation that we conjecture induces approach motivation. Because penalty takers shot toward the two sides of the goal equally often, the goalkeepers' right-oriented bias was dysfunctional, allowing more goals to be scored. Directional biases may facilitate group coordination but prove maladaptive in individual settings and interpersonal competition. PMID:22006059

  2. Intergroup time bias and racialized social relations.

    PubMed

    Vala, Jorge; Pereira, Cícero Roberto; Oliveira Lima, Marcus Eugênio; Leyens, Jacques-Philippe

    2012-04-01

    Within the framework of intergroup relations, the authors analyzed the time people spent evaluating ingroup and outgroup members. They hypothesized that White participants take longer to evaluate White targets than Black targets. In four experiments, White participants were slower to form impressions of White than of Black people; that is, they showed an intergroup time bias (ITB). In Study 1 (N = 60), the ITB correlated with implicit prejudice and homogeneity. Study 2 (N = 60) showed that the ITB was independent of the type of trait in question (nonstereotypical vs. stereotypical). Study 3 (N = 100) demonstrated that ITB correlates with racism measured 3 months beforehand, is independent of motivation to control prejudice, and is not an epiphenomenon of homogeneity. In Study 4 (N = 40) participants not only showed the ITB in a racialized social context but also displayed it following a minimal group manipulation. PMID:22143309

  3. Racial-ethnic biases, time pressure, and medical decisions.

    PubMed

    Stepanikova, Irena

    2012-09-01

    This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time pressure, implicit biases regarding blacks and Hispanics led to a less serious diagnosis. In addition, implicit biases regarding blacks led to a lower likelihood of a referral to specialist when physicians were under high time pressure. The results suggest that when physicians face stress, their implicit biases may shape medical decisions in ways that disadvantage minority patients. PMID:22811465

  4. Leading time domain seismic precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Keskebes, A.; Tselikas, N. T.

    2014-08-01

    The problem of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is threefold. On one hand it is necessary to predict the date and magnitude of an earthquake, and on the other hand the location of the epicenter. In this work after a brief review of the state of earthquake prediction research, we report on a new leading time precursor for determining time onset of earthquake occurrence. We report the linking between earthquakes of the past with those which happen in the future via Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL) numbers. We demonstrate it here with two example seed earthquakes at least 100 years old. Using this leading indicator method we can predict significant earthquake events >6.5R, with good accuracy approximately +- 1 day somewhere in the world. From a single seed we produce at least 100 trials simultaneously of which 50% are correct to +- 1day. The indicator is based on Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL). This result hints that the log periodic FDL numbers are at the root of the understanding of the earthquake mechanism. The theory is based on the assumption that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series. (The mechanism could well be linked to planetary orbits). When future dates are derived from clustering and convergence from previous strong earthquake dates at an FDL time distance, then we have a high probability for an earthquake to occur on that date. We set up a real time system which generates FDL time series from each previous significant earthquake (>7R) and we produce a year to year calendar of high probability earthquake dates. We have tested this over a number of years with considerable success. We have applied this technique for strong (>7R) earthquakes across the globe as well as on a restricted region such as the Greek geographic region where the magnitude is small (>4R-6.5R). In both cases the success of the method is impressive. It is our belief that supplementing this method with

  5. Alleviating bias leads to accurate and personalized recommendation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Tian; Wang, Tian-Tian; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhong, Li-Xin; Chen, Guang

    2013-11-01

    Recommendation bias towards objects has been found to have an impact on personalized recommendation, since objects present heterogeneous characteristics in some network-based recommender systems. In this article, based on a biased heat conduction recommendation algorithm (BHC) which considers the heterogeneity of the target objects, we propose a heterogeneous heat conduction algorithm (HHC), by further taking the heterogeneity of the source objects into account. Tested on three real datasets, the Netflix, RYM and MovieLens, the HHC algorithm is found to present better recommendation in both the accuracy and diversity than two benchmark algorithms, i.e., the original BHC and a hybrid algorithm of heat conduction and mass diffusion (HHM), while not requiring any other accessorial information or parameter. Moreover, the HHC algorithm also elevates the recommendation accuracy on cold objects, referring to the so-called cold-start problem. Eigenvalue analyses show that, the HHC algorithm effectively alleviates the recommendation bias towards objects with different level of popularity, which is beneficial to solving the accuracy-diversity dilemma.

  6. Transit time spreads in biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sise, Omer; Zouros, Theo J. M.

    2016-02-01

    The biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers (HDAs) are an alternative to conventional (centric) HDAs maintaining greater dispersion, lower angular aberrations, and hence better energy resolution without the use of any additional fringing field correctors. In the present work, the transit time spread of the biased paracentric HDA is computed over a wide range of analyzer parameters. The combination of high energy resolution with good time resolution and simplicity of design makes the biased paracentric analyzers very promising for both coincidence and singles spectroscopy applications.

  7. Ocean acoustic tomography - Travel time biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spiesberger, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The travel times of acoustic rays traced through a climatological sound-speed profile are compared with travel times computed through the same profile containing an eddy field. The accuracy of linearizing the relations between the travel time difference and the sound-speed deviation at long ranges is assessed using calculations made for two different eddy fields measured in the eastern Atlantic. Significant nonlinearities are found in some cases, and the relationships of the values of these nonlinearities to the range between source and receiver, to the anomaly size associated with the eddies, and to the positions of the eddies are studied. An analytical model of the nonlinearities is discussed.

  8. Racial-Ethnic Biases, Time Pressure, and Medical Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stepanikova, Irena

    2012-01-01

    This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time…

  9. Directionality Time - New Analytical Treatment of Directionally Biased, Crawling Motility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jay; Loosley, Alexander

    Insights on crucial biological functions often emerge from measuring how animal cells crawl on surfaces, particularly in response to gradients of external cues that cause directionally biased motion. Most existing metrics commonly used to characterize directional migration, such as straightness index (or chemotactic index), persistence time, and turning angle distribution, tend to be sensitive to relatively large errors at short sampling times. In contrast, we recently introduced a new metric, called directionality time, to define the onset time by which a seemingly random motion becomes directionally biased (O'Brien et al., J Leukocyte Biol, 2014, 95:993-1004 Loosley et al., PLOS ONE, 2015, 10.1371). Directionality time is obtained by fitting the mean squared displacement as a function of time interval, in log-log coordinates, to a fit function based on biased and persistent random walk processes. We show that the fit function is approximately model invariant and is applicable to a variety of directionally biased motions. Simulations are performed to show the robustness of the directionality time model and its decoupling from measurement errors. Finally, we demonstrate as an example how to usefully apply the directionality time fit to trajectories of chemotactic neutrophils.

  10. Accelerated failure time model under general biased sampling scheme.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jane Paik; Sit, Tony; Ying, Zhiliang

    2016-07-01

    Right-censored time-to-event data are sometimes observed from a (sub)cohort of patients whose survival times can be subject to outcome-dependent sampling schemes. In this paper, we propose a unified estimation method for semiparametric accelerated failure time models under general biased estimating schemes. The proposed estimator of the regression covariates is developed upon a bias-offsetting weighting scheme and is proved to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Large sample properties for the estimator are also derived. Using rank-based monotone estimating functions for the regression parameters, we find that the estimating equations can be easily solved via convex optimization. The methods are confirmed through simulations and illustrated by application to real datasets on various sampling schemes including length-bias sampling, the case-cohort design and its variants. PMID:26941240

  11. Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

    DOEpatents

    Gottschalk, B.

    1981-07-30

    A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting is described. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

  12. Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

    DOEpatents

    Gottschalk, Bernard

    1983-01-01

    A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

  13. Habitual reading biases in the allocation of study time.

    PubMed

    Ariel, Robert; Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S; Was, Christopher A; Dunlosky, John

    2011-10-01

    Item order can bias learners' study decisions and undermine the use of more effective allocation strategies, such as allocating study time to items in one's region of proximal learning. In two experiments, we evaluated whether the influence of item order on study decisions reflects habitual responding based on a reading bias. We manipulated the order in which relatively easy, moderately difficult, and difficult items were presented from left to right on a computer screen and examined selection preference as a function of item order and item difficulty. Experiment 1a was conducted with native Arabic readers and in Arabic, and Experiment 1b was conducted with native English readers and in English. Students from both cultures prioritized items for study in the reading order of their native language: Arabic readers selected items for study in a right-to-left fashion, whereas English readers largely selected items from left to right. In Experiment 2, native English readers completed the same task as participants in Experiment 1b, but for some participants, lines of text were rotated upside down to encourage them to read from right to left. Participants who read upside-down text were more likely to first select items on the right side of an array than were participants who studied right-side-up text. These results indicate that reading habits can bias learners' study decisions and can undermine agenda-based regulation. PMID:21735331

  14. Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.; Yu, James B.

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.

  15. Condition bias of hunter-shot ring-necked ducks exposed to lead

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCracken, K.G.; Afton, A.D.; Peters, M.S.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the condition bias hypothesis for ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris) exposed to lead by testing the null hypothesis that ducks shot by hunters do not differ in physiological condition from those collected randomly from the same location. After adjusting for structural body size and log(e) concentration of blood lead, we found that overall body condition differed significantly between collection types and age classes, and marginally between sexes. Ingesta-free body mass of ring-necked ducks sampled randomly averaged 8.8% greater than those shot over decoys, and 99% of this difference was accounted for by lipid reserves. Ingesta, ash, and protein did not differ between collection types; however, after-hatching-year (AHY) birds had 5.1% more ash and 4.8% more protein than did hatching-year (HY) birds. The only sex difference was that males had 4.1% more protein than did females. Ingesta-free body mass, lipids, and protein were negatively related to concentration of blood lead. Collection type-by-concentration of blood lead and age-by-sex-by-concentration of blood lead interactions were not significant. To the extent that lead pellets persist as a cause of disease or mortality, waterfowl biologists should account for lead exposure as a possible source of condition bias when estimating population parameters and modeling survival of ring-necked ducks and other waterfowl species prone to ingest lead. These findings further underscore the problem that ingested lead shotgun pellets pose for waterfowl.

  16. Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities

    PubMed Central

    Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of

  17. Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities.

    PubMed

    Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of

  18. Linearity of Air-Biased Coherent Detection for Terahertz Time-Domain Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tianwu; Iwaszczuk, Krzysztof; Wrisberg, Emil Astrup; Denning, Emil Vosmar; Jepsen, Peter Uhd

    2016-06-01

    The performance of air-biased coherent detection (ABCD) in a broadband two-color laser-induced air plasma system for terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) has been investigated. Fundamental parameters of the ABCD detection, including signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), dynamic range (DR), and linearity of detection have been characterized. Moreover, the performance of a photomultiplier tube (PMT) and an avalanche photodiode (APD) as photodetector in the ABCD have been compared. We have observed nonlinear behavior of PMT detector, which leads to artificial gain factor in TDS spectroscopy. The APD turns out to have superior linearity and three times higher dynamic compared to the PMT.

  19. Time to End the Bias towards Inclusive Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Runswick-Cole, Katherine

    2011-01-01

    The UK coalition Government's call to end the "bias" towards inclusion represents a shift in "policy speak" as the new administration attempts to re-narrate special education by putting forward a "reasonable and sensible" solution to the "problem of inclusion". However, implicit in the call is the assumption that there has, in fact, been a "bias…

  20. The influence of referees' expertise, gender, motivation, and time constraints on decisional bias against women.

    PubMed

    Souchon, Nicolas; Livingstone, Andrew G; Maio, Gregory R

    2013-12-01

    The influence of player gender on referees' decision making was experimentally investigated. In Experiment 1, including 145 male handball referees, we investigated (a) the influence of referees' level of expertise on their decisional biases against women and (b) the referees' gender stereotypes. Results revealed that biases against women were powerful regardless of the referees' level of expertise and that male referees' stereotype toward female players tends to be negative. In Experiment 2, including 115 sport science students, we examined the influence of the participants' gender, motivation to control bias, and time constraints on gender bias. Results indicated that participants' gender had no impact on gender bias and that participants were able to reduce this bias in conditions in which they were motivated to control the bias. PMID:24334320

  1. Removing Satellite Equatorial Crossing Time Biases from the OLR and HRC Datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waliser, Duane E.; Zhou, Wufeng

    1997-09-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the impacts from satellite equatorial crossing time (ECT) changes on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and highly reflective cloud (HRC) datasets and to design appropriate and robust methods to remove these satellite-dependent biases. The OLR record covers the period from June 1974 to July 1996 and is on a 2.5° grid extending from 30°S to 30°N over the global Tropics. The HRC record covers the period from January 1971 to December 1987 and is on a 2° grid extending from 25°S to 25°N over the global Tropics. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (REOF) is performed on both the monthly OLR and HRC anomalies to help distinguish between artificial modes of variability and those associated with real variability.Results from the analysis show that significant errors are introduced by changes in the satellite ECT, and they appear differently in the two datasets. The primary satellite-related bias in the OLR appears as the fourth REOF mode, which accounts for 4.4% of the OLR anomaly variance. Its spatial pattern exhibits a strong surface signature over land, with the opposite sign over many of the deep convective regions of the ocean. During some periods, these biases result in widespread errors of over 10 W m2, which are sustained for several months to over a year. In other cases, the transition between satellites induces abrupt, artificial changes in the OLR as high as 16 W m2. In the HRC, the satellite-related bias appears as the leading two REOF modes, which account for 13.1% of the HRC anomaly variance. The spatial patterns of the HRC biases are indicative of an overall change in the mean climatological convection pattern. The above results can be understood by considering the sampling and radiometric characteristics of the OLR and HRC datasets.To remove the satellite ECT biases, the REOF time series of the satellite-related modes are modified by using the detailed knowledge of the satellite ECTs so that only

  2. Reducing bias and analyzing variability in the time-left procedure.

    PubMed

    Trujano, R Emmanuel; Orduña, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    The time-left procedure was designed to evaluate the psychophysical function for time. Although previous results indicated a linear relationship, it is not clear what role the observed bias toward the time-left option plays in this procedure and there are no reports of how variability changes with predicted indifference. The purposes of this experiment were to reduce bias experimentally, and to contrast the difference limen (a measure of variability around indifference) with predictions from scalar expectancy theory (linear timing) and behavioral economic model (logarithmic timing). A control group of 6 rats performed the original time-left procedure with C=60 s and S=5, 10,…, 50, 55 s, whereas a no-bias group of 6 rats performed the same conditions in a modified time-left procedure in which only a single response per choice trial was allowed. Results showed that bias was reduced for the no-bias group, observed indifference grew linearly with predicted indifference for both groups, and difference limen and Weber ratios decreased as expected indifference increased for the control group, which is consistent with linear timing, whereas for the no-bias group they remained constant, consistent with logarithmic timing. Therefore, the time-left procedure generates results consistent with logarithmic perceived time once bias is experimentally reduced. PMID:25659914

  3. Fixation Time is a Sensitive Measure of Cocaine Cue Attentional Bias

    PubMed Central

    Marks, Katherine R.; Roberts, Walter; Stoops, William W.; Pike, Erika; Fillmore, Mark T.; Rush, Craig R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Attentional bias has been demonstrated to a variety of substances. Evidence suggests that fixation time is a more direct measure of attentional bias than response time. The aims of this experiment were to demonstrate that fixation time during the visual probe task is a sensitive and stable measure of cocaine cue attentional bias in cocaine using adults compared to controls. Design A between-subject, repeated-measures experiment. Setting An outpatient research unit. Participants Fifteen cocaine using and fifteen non-cocaine-using adults recruited from the community. Measurements Participants completed a visual probe task with eye tracking and a modified Stroop during two experimental sessions. Findings A significant interaction between cue type and group (F = 13.5; P = 0.001) indicated that cocaine users, but not controls, displayed an attentional bias to cocaine-related images as measured by fixation time. There were no changes in the magnitude of attentional bias across sessions (F = 3.4; P = 0.08) and attentional bias correlated with self-reported lifetime cocaine use (r = 0.64, P = 0.01). Response time on the visual probe (F = 1.1; P = 0.3) as well as on the modified Stroop (F = 0.1; P = 0.72) failed to detect an attentional bias. Conclusions Fixation time on cocaine-related stimuli (propensity to remain focused on the stimulus) is a sensitive and stable measure of cocaine cue attentional bias in cocaine-using adults. PMID:24894879

  4. Improving Order Lead Time: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villarreal, Bernardo; Salido, Lucy

    2009-01-01

    A fundamental challenge of globally competing companies is to increase their level of customer satisfaction, by devising and implementing strategies aimed at providing better price, quality, and service. This paper describes the efforts of a Mexican company to achieve this goal, and in particular, with the need to decrease order lead time…

  5. Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Dealing With Immortal Time Bias in Drug Effectiveness Studies.

    PubMed

    Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Gustafson, Paul; Petkau, John; Tremlett, Helen

    2016-08-15

    In time-to-event analyses of observational studies of drug effectiveness, incorrect handling of the period between cohort entry and first treatment exposure during follow-up may result in immortal time bias. This bias can be eliminated by acknowledging a change in treatment exposure status with time-dependent analyses, such as fitting a time-dependent Cox model. The prescription time-distribution matching (PTDM) method has been proposed as a simpler approach for controlling immortal time bias. Using simulation studies and theoretical quantification of bias, we compared the performance of the PTDM approach with that of the time-dependent Cox model in the presence of immortal time. Both assessments revealed that the PTDM approach did not adequately address immortal time bias. Based on our simulation results, another recently proposed observational data analysis technique, the sequential Cox approach, was found to be more useful than the PTDM approach (Cox: bias = -0.002, mean squared error = 0.025; PTDM: bias = -1.411, mean squared error = 2.011). We applied these approaches to investigate the association of β-interferon treatment with delaying disability progression in a multiple sclerosis cohort in British Columbia, Canada (Long-Term Benefits and Adverse Effects of Beta-Interferon for Multiple Sclerosis (BeAMS) Study, 1995-2008). PMID:27455963

  6. Lax decision criteria lead to negativity bias: evidence from the emotional stroop task.

    PubMed

    Liu, Guofang; Xin, Ziqiang; Lin, Chongde

    2014-06-01

    Negativity bias means that negative information is usually given more emphasis than comparable positive information. Under signal detection theory, recent research found that people more frequently and incorrectly identify negative task-related words as having been presented originally than positive words, even when they were not presented. That is, people have lax decision criteria for negative words. However, the response biases for task-unrelated negative words and for emotionally important words are still unclear. This study investigated response bias for these two kinds of words. Study 1 examined the response bias for task-unrelated negative words using an emotional Stroop task. Proportions of correct recognition to negative and positive words were assessed by non-parametric signal detection analysis. Participants have lower (i.e., more lax) decision criteria for task-unrelated negative words than for positive words. Study 2 supported and expanded this result by investigating participants' response bias for highly emotional words. Participants have lower decision criteria for highly emotional words than for less emotional words. Finally, possible evolutionary sources of the response bias were discussed. PMID:25074310

  7. Naturally Biased? In Search for Reaction Time Evidence for a Natural Number Bias in Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vamvakoussi, Xenia; Van Dooren, Wim; Verschaffel, Lieven

    2012-01-01

    A major source of errors in rational number tasks is the inappropriate application of natural number rules. We hypothesized that this is an instance of intuitive reasoning and thus can persist in adults, even when they respond correctly. This was tested by means of a reaction time method, relying on a dual process perspective that differentiates…

  8. Time and Causation in Discourse: Temporal Proximity, Implicit Causality, and Re-mention Biases.

    PubMed

    Dery, Jeruen E; Bittner, Dagmar

    2016-08-01

    Using referential processing in discourse featuring implicit causality verbs as a test case, we demonstrate how a discourse's causal and temporal dimensions interact. We show that referential processing is affected by multiple discourse biases, and that these biases do not have uniform effects. In three discourse continuation experiments, we show that the bias to re-mention a particular referent in discourse involving implicit causality verbs is not only affected by the verb's implicit causality bias, but also by the discourse's temporal structure, which at times, can even override the implicit causality bias. Our results add to the growing number of studies that show how various discourse dimensions interact in discourse processing. PMID:26058497

  9. Possible bias in tree-ring time series due to mortality

    SciTech Connect

    Lucier, A A; Warnick, W L; Hyink, D M

    1989-07-01

    This article discusses the possible bias in tree-ring time series studies extending from the year of sample collection to a prepollution period. The authors hypothesizes that normal mortality (i.e., mortality not associated with sudden disturbance) can cause reduced tree ring widths in years preceding actual tree death and produce a bias toward smaller and more variable ring widths at the end of the tree-ring time series.

  10. Timing group delay and differential code bias corrections for BeiDou positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Fei; Zhang, Xiaohong; Wang, Jinling

    2015-05-01

    This article first clearly figures out the relationship between parameters of timing group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) for BDS, and demonstrates the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice. The TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various occasions for BDS positioning, and such models have been evaluated by real triple-frequency datasets. To test the effectiveness of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) tests are carried out for BDS signals with different schemes. Furthermore, the influence of differential code biases on BDS positioning estimates such as coordinates, receiver clock biases, tropospheric delays and carrier phase ambiguities is investigated comprehensively. Comparative analysis show that the unmodeled differential code biases degrade the performance of BDS SPP by a factor of two or more, whereas the estimates of PPP are subject to varying degrees of influences. For SPP, the accuracy of dual-frequency combinations is slightly worse than that of single-frequency, and they are much more sensitive to the differential code biases, particularly for the B2B3 combination. For PPP, the uncorrected differential code biases are mostly absorbed into the receiver clock bias and carrier phase ambiguities and thus resulting in a much longer convergence time. Even though the influence of the differential code biases could be mitigated over time and comparable positioning accuracy could be achieved after convergence, it is suggested to properly handle with the differential code biases since it is vital for PPP convergence and integer ambiguity resolution.

  11. Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation.

    PubMed

    Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

    2015-09-18

    Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

  12. Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation

    PubMed Central

    Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

    2015-01-01

    Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

  13. The induction time in the electrocrystallization of lead chloride and lead sulphate on an amalgamated lead electrode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torrent, Joan; Rodriguez, Rafael; Sluyters, J. H.

    1993-07-01

    The induction time in the electrocrystallization of lead chloride and lead sulphate on a lead amalgam electrode, determined from the observation of the light scattered by the electrode surface, has been treated according to the well known nucleation models. The analysis shows that the atomistic model is more realistic than the classical model. The critical nuclei size ranges between 0 and 1 growth unit.

  14. A nesting model for bias correction of variability at multiple time scales in general circulation model precipitation simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impact assessments of water resources systems require simulations of precipitation and evaporation that exhibit distributional and persistence attributes similar to the historical record. Specifically, there is a need to ensure general circulation model (GCM) simulations of rainfall for the current climate exhibit low-frequency variability that is consistent with observed data. Inability to represent low-frequency variability in precipitation and flow leads to biased estimates of the security offered by water resources systems in a warmer climate. This paper presents a method to postprocess GCM precipitation simulations by imparting correct distributional and persistence attributes, resulting in sequences that are representative of observed records across a range of time scales. The proposed approach is named nesting bias correction (NBC), the rationale being to correct distributional and persistence bias from fine to progressively longer time scales. In the results presented here, distributional attributes have been represented by order 1 and 2 moments with persistence represented by lag 1 autocorrelation coefficients at monthly and annual time scales. The NBC method was applied to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mk3.5 and MIROC 3.2 hires rainfall simulations for Australia. It was found that the nesting method worked well to correct means, standard deviations, and lag 1 autocorrelations when the biases in the raw GCM outputs were not too large. While the bias correction improves the representation of distributional and persistence attributes at the time scales considered, there is room for representation of longer-term persistence by extending to time scales longer than a year.

  15. Biasing the pacemaker in the behavioral theory of timing

    PubMed Central

    Bizo, Lewis A.; White, K. Geoffrey

    1995-01-01

    In the behavioral theory of timing, pacemaker rate is determined by overall rate of reinforcement. A two-alternative free-operant psychophysical procedure was employed to investigate whether pacemaker period was also sensitive to the differential rate of reinforcement. Responding on a left key during the first 25 s and on a right key during the second 25 s of a 50-s trial was reinforced at variable intervals, and variable-interval schedule values during the two halves of the trials were varied systematically. Responding on the right key during the first 25 s and on the left key during the second 25 s was not reinforced. Estimates of pacemaker period were derived from fits of a function predicted by the behavioral theory of timing to right-key response proportions in consecutive 5-s bins of the 50-s trial. Estimates of pacemaker period were shortest when the differential reinforcer rate most strongly favored right-key responses, and were longest when the differential reinforcer rate most strongly favored left-key responses. The results were consistent with the conclusion that pacemaker rate is influenced by relative reinforcer rate. PMID:16812769

  16. Bias Corrections for Regional Estimates of the Time-averaged Geomagnetic Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Constable, C.; Johnson, C. L.

    2009-05-01

    We assess two sources of bias in the time-averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and paleosecular variation (PSV): inadequate temporal sampling, and the use of unit vectors in deriving temporal averages of the regional geomagnetic field. For the first temporal sampling question we use statistical resampling of existing data sets to minimize and correct for bias arising from uneven temporal sampling in studies of the time- averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and its paleosecular variation (PSV). The techniques are illustrated using data derived from Hawaiian lava flows for 0-5~Ma: directional observations are an updated version of a previously published compilation of paleomagnetic directional data centered on ± 20° latitude by Lawrence et al./(2006); intensity data are drawn from Tauxe & Yamazaki, (2007). We conclude that poor temporal sampling can produce biased estimates of TAF and PSV, and resampling to appropriate statistical distribution of ages reduces this bias. We suggest that similar resampling should be attempted as a bias correction for all regional paleomagnetic data to be used in TAF and PSV modeling. The second potential source of bias is the use of directional data in place of full vector data to estimate the average field. This is investigated for the full vector subset of the updated Hawaiian data set. Lawrence, K.P., C.G. Constable, and C.L. Johnson, 2006, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q07007, DOI 10.1029/2005GC001181. Tauxe, L., & Yamazkai, 2007, Treatise on Geophysics,5, Geomagnetism, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Chapter 13,p509

  17. Time Course of Attentional Bias in Anxiety: Emotion and Gender Specificity

    PubMed Central

    Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Silton, Rebecca Levin; Edgar, J. Christopher; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Miller, Gregory A.

    2011-01-01

    Anxiety is characterized by cognitive biases, including attentional bias to emotional (especially threatening) stimuli. Accounts differ on the time course of attention to threat, but the literature generally confounds emotional valence and arousal and overlooks gender effects, both addressed in the present study. Nonpatients high in self-reported anxious apprehension, anxious arousal, or neither completed an emotion-word Stroop task during ERP recording. Hypotheses differentiated time course of preferential attention to emotional stimuli. Individuals high in anxious apprehension and anxious arousal showed distinct early ERP evidence of preferential processing of emotionally arousing stimuli along with some evidence for gender differences in processing. Healthy controls showed gender differences at both early and later processing stages. The conjunction of valence, arousal, and gender is critical in the time course of attentional bias. PMID:19863758

  18. Inhomogeneities in bias-corrected precipitation time-series over Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabanov, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Inhomogeneities in climate time series of bias-corrected precipitation over Russia are analyzed. During XX century in the USSR there was several changes in precipitation measurement procedures, which caused inhomogeneities in precipitation time-series. Two precipitation datasets are under investigation: the original one (without correction procedures and wetting correction), and the other - undergone the bias-correction procedure following the full empirical correction model of precipitation gauge data (The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory monthly datasets; Golubev, 2000; Bogdanova, 2008). Three homogeneity tests were applied for annual sums to detect the breaks: the standard normal homogeneity test (Alexandersson, 1986), the Buishand range test (Buishand, 1982) and the Pettitt test (Pettitt, 1979). The artifact inhomogeneities were detected not only in original dataset, where it was expected, especially after 1966, when the precipitation collecting method was modified, but also in bias-corrected time series. Most of breaks appear in 1950-s, when new gauges with Tretyakov wind shield were installed all over the observation hydrometeorological network of the USSR. Although all basic systematic measurement errors of precipitation gauges were excluded from bias-corrected dataset, homogeneity tests detect breaks. After 1966-1967, when wetting correction usage was started and the number of measurements was increased from 2 to 4 per day, and near 1986, when the number of measurements decreased from 4 to 2 per day, homogeneity tests also show biases. In the early 1970-s there were also changes in wind speed measurement procedure, which could cause breaks in corrected precipitation datasets (full model uses wind speed as a parameter). The percent of determined breaks (5% significant level), detected at least by two tests, is near 50% for original dataset and near 30% for bias-corrected dataset. So, even bias-corrected precipitation dataset over Russia should be checked

  19. Magnetic switching time of a Stoner-Wohlfarth particle in a perpendicular bias field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Dong

    This thesis studies magnetic switching of a Stoner-Wholfarth particle. The particle is characterized by a uniaxial magnetic anisotropy, and the magnetic field driving the switching is applied along the anisotropy axis. In addition, a constant small bias field is applied perpendicular to the easy axis. The dynamics of the magnetic moment are studied numerically by solving the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. Numeric results obtained without any approximations are then compared to the analytic theory of switching time in a perpendicular bias field. A good correspondence between the approximate analytic and exact numeric values of the switching time is observed in a wide parameter region.

  20. Real-time estimation of mean field bias in radar rainfall data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D.-J.; Breidenbach, J. P.; Johnson, E. R.

    1999-10-01

    To reduce systematic errors in radar rainfall data used for operational hydrologic forecasting, the precipitation estimation stream in the National Weather Service (NWS) uses procedures that estimate mean field bias in real time. Being a multiplicative correction over a very large area, bias adjustment has a huge impact, particularly on volumetric estimation of rainwater, and hence performance of the procedure is extremely important to quantitative hydrologic forecasting using radar rainfall data. In this paper, we describe a new procedure for real-time estimation of mean field bias in WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar—1988 Doppler version) rainfall products. Based largely on operational experience of the existing procedures in NWS, the proposed procedure is intended to be unbiased, parsimonious, and intuitive. To evaluate the procedure, true validation is performed using hourly rain gage and WSR-88D rainfall data from Tulsa and Twin Lakes, Oklahoma.

  1. Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

    2013-10-01

    Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

  2. Recurrent positive selection and heterogeneous codon usage bias events leading to coexistence of divergent pigeon circoviruses.

    PubMed

    Liao, Pei-Chun; Wang, Kung-Kai; Tsai, Shinn-Shyong; Liu, Hung-Jen; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chuang, Kuo-Pin

    2015-08-01

    The capsid genes from 14 pigeon circovirus (PiCV) sequences, collected from Taiwan between 2009 and 2010, were sequenced and compared with 14 PiCV capsid gene sequences from GenBank. Based on pairwise comparison, PiCV strains from Taiwan shared 73.9-100% nucleotide identity and 72-100% amino acid identity with those of the 14 reported PiCV sequences. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Taiwanese PiCV isolates can be grouped into two clades: clade 1 comprising isolates from Belgium, Australia, USA, Italy and China, and clade 2 showing close relation to isolates from Germany and France. Recurrent positive selection was detected in clade 1 PiCV lineages, which may contribute to the diversification of predominant PiCV sequences in Taiwan. Further observations suggest that synonymous codon usage variations between PiCV clade 1 and clade 2 may reflect the adaptive divergence on translation efficiency of capsid genes in infectious hosts. Variation in selective pressures acting on the evolutionary divergence and codon usage bias of both clades explains the regional coexistence of virus sequences congeners prevented from competitive exclusion within an island such as Taiwan. Our genotyping results also provide insight into the aetiological agents of PiCV outbreak in Taiwan and we present a comparative analysis of the central coding region of PiCV genome. From the sequence comparison results of 28 PiCVs which differs in regard to the geographical origin and columbid species, we identified conserved regions within the capsid gene that are likely to be suitable for primer selection and vaccine development. PMID:25911731

  3. Attention Biases to Threat Link Behavioral Inhibition to Social Withdrawal over Time in Very Young Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perez-Edgar, Koraly; Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C.; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; White, Lauren K.; Henderson, Heather A.; Degnan, Kathryn A.; Hane, Amie A.; Pine, Daniel S.; Fox, Nathan A.

    2011-01-01

    Behaviorally inhibited children display a temperamental profile characterized by social withdrawal and anxious behaviors. Previous research, focused largely on adolescents, suggests that attention biases to threat may sustain high levels of behavioral inhibition (BI) over time, helping link early temperament to social outcomes. However, no prior…

  4. Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andres; Bloch, Michael H.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method: We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years of age with major depressive disorder. Our main…

  5. Exploring the influential factors in incident clearance time: Disentangling causation from self-selection bias.

    PubMed

    Ding, Chuan; Ma, Xiaolei; Wang, Yinhai; Wang, Yunpeng

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the relationships between influential factors and incident clearance time is crucial to make effective countermeasures for incident management agencies. Although there have been a certain number of achievements on incident clearance time modeling, limited effort is made to investigate the relative role of incident response time and its self-selection in influencing the clearance time. To fill this gap, this study uses the endogenous switching model to explore the influential factors in incident clearance time, and aims to disentangle causation from self-selection bias caused by response process. Under the joint two-stage model framework, the binary probit model and switching regression model are formulated for both incident response time and clearance time, respectively. Based on the freeway incident data collected in Washington State, full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method is utilized to estimate the endogenous switching model parameters. Significant factors affecting incident response time and clearance time can be identified, including incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational attributes. The estimate results reveal the influential effects of incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational factors on incident response time and clearance time. In addition, the causality of incident response time itself and its self-selection correction on incident clearance time are found to be indispensable. These findings suggest that the causal effect of response time on incident clearance time will be overestimated if the self-selection bias is not considered. PMID:26373988

  6. Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andrés; Bloch, Michael H.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine if there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized, placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years old with major depressive disorder. Our main outcomes were (1) time to publication of positive versus negative trials, and (2) proportion of treatment responders in trials with standard (< 3 years after study completion) versus delayed publication. Results We identified 15 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SRIs for pediatric depression. Trials with negative findings had a significantly longer time to publication (median years ± standard deviation = 4.2 ±1.9) than trials with positive findings (2.2 ±0.9; log-rank χ2 = 4.35, p = 0.037). The estimated efficacy in trials with standard publication time (number needed to treat = 7, 95% CI: 5 – 11) was significantly greater than those with delayed publication (17, 95% CI: 9 – ∞; χ2 = 4.98, p = 0.025). The inflation-adjusted impact factor of journals for published trials with positive (15.33 ±11.01) and negative results (7.54 ±7.90) did not statistically differ (t = 1.4, df = 10, p = 0.17). Conclusions Despite a small number of trials of SRIs for pediatric antidepressants we found a significant evidence of time-lag bias in the publication of findings. This time-lag bias altered the perceived efficacy of pediatric antidepressants in the medical literature. Time-lag bias is not unique to child psychiatry and reflects a larger problem in scientific publishing. PMID:21156271

  7. Resonant magnetoelectric coupling in trilayers of ferromagnetic alloys and piezoelectric lead zirconate titanate: The influence of bias magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, G.; de Vreugd, C. P.; Laletin, V. M.; Paddubnaya, N.; Bichurin, M. I.; Petrov, V. M.; Filippov, D. A.

    2005-05-01

    We present the first data and theory for the bias magnetic field dependence of magnetoelectric coupling in the electromechanical resonance (EMR) region for ferromagnetic-piezoelectric heterostructures. Trilayers of Permendur, a Co-Fe-V alloy, and lead zirconate titanate were studied. Measurements of the magnetoelectric (ME) voltage coefficient αE indicate a strong ME coupling in the low-frequency range and a giant ME effect due to EMR at 200-300kHz for radial modes and at ˜2.7MHz for thickness modes. Data were obtained for the bias field H dependence of two key parameters, the EMR frequency fr and the ME coefficient αE,R at resonance. With increasing H , an increase in fr and a rapid rise and fall in αE,R are measured. In our model we consider two mechanisms for the magnetic field influence on ME interactions: (i) a shift in the EMR frequency due to changes in compliance coefficients ( ΔE effect) and (ii) variation in the piezomagnetic coefficient that manifests as a change in αE,R . Theoretical profiles of αE vs frequency and estimates of frequency shift based on the ΔE effect are in excellent agreement with the data.

  8. Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

    PubMed Central

    Deaner, Robert O.; Lowen, Aaron; Cobley, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive. PMID:23460902

  9. Uniform-acceptance force-bias Monte Carlo method with time scale to study solid-state diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mees, Maarten J.; Pourtois, Geoffrey; Neyts, Erik C.; Thijsse, Barend J.; Stesmans, André

    2012-04-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) methods have a long-standing history as partners of molecular dynamics (MD) to simulate the evolution of materials at the atomic scale. Among these techniques, the uniform-acceptance force-bias Monte Carlo (UFMC) method [G. Dereli, Mol. Simul.10.1080/08927029208022490 8, 351 (1992)] has recently attracted attention [M. Timonova , Phys. Rev. BPRBMDO1098-012110.1103/PhysRevB.81.144107 81, 144107 (2010)] thanks to its apparent capacity of being able to simulate physical processes in a reduced number of iterations compared to classical MD methods. The origin of this efficiency remains, however, unclear. In this work we derive a UFMC method starting from basic thermodynamic principles, which leads to an intuitive and unambiguous formalism. The approach includes a statistically relevant time step per Monte Carlo iteration, showing a significant speed-up compared to MD simulations. This time-stamped force-bias Monte Carlo (tfMC) formalism is tested on both simple one-dimensional and three-dimensional systems. Both test-cases give excellent results in agreement with analytical solutions and literature reports. The inclusion of a time scale, the simplicity of the method, and the enhancement of the time step compared to classical MD methods make this method very appealing for studying the dynamics of many-particle systems.

  10. Time course of attentional bias for gambling information in problem gambling

    PubMed Central

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Bechara, Antoine; Laloyaux, Cédric; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    There is a wealth of evidence showing enhanced attention towards drug-related information (i.e. attentional bias) in substance abusers. However, little is known about attentional bias in deregulated behaviors without substance use such as abnormal gambling. This study examined whether problem gamblers (PrG, as assessed through self-reported gambling-related craving and gambling dependence severity) exhibit attentional bias for gambling-related cues. Forty PrG and 35 control participants performed a change detection task using the flicker paradigm, in which two images differing in only one aspect are repeatedly flashed on the screen until the participant is able to report the changing item. In our study, the changing item was either neutral or related to gambling. Eye movements were recorded, which made it possible to measure both initial orienting of attention as well as its maintenance on gambling information. Direct (eye-movements) and indirect (change in detection latency) measures of attention in individuals with problematic gambling behaviors suggested the occurrence of both engagement and of maintenance attentional biases towards gambling-related visual cues. Compared to non-problematic gamblers, PrG exhibited (1) faster reaction times to gambling-cues as compared to neutral cues, (2) higher percentage of initial saccades directed toward gambling pictures; (3) an increased fixation duration and fixation count on gambling pictures. In the PrG group, measures of gambling-related attentional bias were not associated with craving for gambling and gambling dependence severity. Theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:21688874

  11. Real-time video compression using entropy-biased ANN codebooks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahalt, Stanley C.; Fowler, James E.

    1994-03-01

    We describe hardware that has been built to compress video in real time using full-search vector quantization (VQ). This architecture implements a differential-vector-quantization (DVQ) algorithm which features entropy-biased codebooks designed using an artificial neural network. A special-purpose digital associative memory, the VAMPIRE chip, performs the VQ processing. We describe the DVQ algorithm, its adaptations for sampled NTSC composite- color video, and details of its hardware implementation. We conclude by presenting results drawn from real-time operation of the DVQ hardware.

  12. Ultrafast time-resolved spectroscopy of lead halide perovskite films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Idowu, Mopelola A.; Yau, Sung H.; Varnavski, Oleg; Goodson, Theodore

    2015-09-01

    Recently, lead halide perovskites which are organic-inorganic hybrid structures, have been discovered to be highly efficient as light absorbers. Herein, we show the investigation of the excited state dynamics and emission properties of non-stoichiometric precursor formed lead halide perovskites grown by interdiffusion method using steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopic measurements. The influence of the different ratios of the non-stoichiometric precursor solution was examined. The observed photoluminescence properties were correlated with the femtosecond transient absorption measurements.

  13. Methodological challenges to control for immortal time bias in addressing drug effects in type 2 diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Xi-Lin; Huo, Xiao-Xu; Chan, Juliana CN

    2015-01-01

    There are multiple biases in using observational studies to examine treatment effects such as those from prevalent drug users, immortal time and drug indications. We used renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors and statins as reference drugs with proven efficacies in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and examined their effectiveness in the prospective Hong Kong Diabetes Registry using adjustment methods proposed in the literature. Using time-dependent exposures to drug treatments yielded greatly inflated hazard ratios (HR) regarding the treatment effects of these drugs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes. These errors were probably due to changing indications to use these drugs during follow up periods, especially at the time of drug commencement making time-dependent analysis extremely problematic. Using time-fixed analysis with exclusion of immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of RAS inhibitors for CVD was comparable to that in RCT. The result supported the use of the Registry for performing pharmacoepidemiological analysis which revealed an attenuated low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol related cancer risk with RAS inhibitors. On the other hand, time-fixed analysis with including immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of statins for CVD was similar to that in the RCT. Our results highlight the complexity and difficulty in removing these biases. We call for validations of the methods to cope with immortal time and drug use indications before applying them to particular research questions, so to avoid making erroneous conclusions. PMID:26413484

  14. Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: a re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2011-05-01

    This paper shows that the meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy reported by Attewell, Glase, and McFadden (Accident Analysis and Prevention 2001, 345-352) was influenced by publication bias and time-trend bias that was not controlled for. As a result, the analysis reported inflated estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets. This paper presents a re-analysis of the study. The re-analysis included: (1) detecting and adjusting for publication bias by means of the trim-and-fill method; (2) ensuring the inclusion of all published studies by means of continuity corrections of estimates of effect rely on zero counts; (3) detecting and trying to account for a time-trend bias in estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets; (4) updating the study by including recently published studies evaluating the effects of bicycle helmets. The re-analysis shows smaller safety benefits associated with the use of bicycle helmets than the original study. PMID:21376924

  15. A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Shrestha, Durga Lal; Wang, Q. J.; Enever, David; Hapuarachchi, Prasantha; Tuteja, Narendra K.

    2014-11-01

    This study describes a System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) designed to forecast streamflows to lead times of 9 days. SCHEF is intended to support optimal management of water resources for consumptive and environmental purposes and ultimately to support the management of impending floods. Deterministic rainfall forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are post-processed using a Bayesian joint probability model to correct biases and quantify uncertainty. Realistic temporal and spatial characteristics are instilled in the rainfall forecast ensemble with the Schaake shuffle. The ensemble rainfall forecasts are then used as inputs to the GR4H hydrological model to produce streamflow forecasts. A hydrological error correction is applied to ensure forecasts transit smoothly from recent streamflow observations. SCHEF forecasts streamflows skilfully for a range of hydrological and climate conditions. Skill is particularly evident in forecasts of streamflows at lead times of 1-6 days. Forecasts perform best in temperate perennially flowing rivers, while forecasts are poorest in intermittently flowing rivers. The poor streamflow forecasts in intermittent rivers are primarily the result of poor rainfall forecasts, rather than an inadequate representation of hydrological processes. Forecast uncertainty becomes more reliably quantified at longer lead times; however there is considerable scope for improving the reliability of streamflow forecasts at all lead times. Additionally, we show that the choice of forecast time-step can influence forecast accuracy: forecasts generated at a 1-h time-step tend to be more accurate than at longer time-steps (e.g. 1-day). This is largely because at shorter time-steps the hydrological error correction is able to correct streamflow forecasts with more recent information, rather than the ability of GR4H to simulate hydrological processes better at shorter time-steps. SCHEF will form the

  16. Time discounting, present biases, and health-related behaviors: Evidence from Japan.

    PubMed

    Kang, Myong-Il; Ikeda, Shinsuke

    2016-05-01

    Human health is considered the outcome of intertemporal choices under tradeoffs between a small immediate reward and a larger delayed reward. Health-related behaviors are thus affected by personal time preferences. Based on an Internet-based survey conducted on Japanese adults, we contribute to the literature by incorporating the multifaceted nature of time discounting in an analysis of the associations between time preference and health-related behaviors. We find that, first, less patient respondents tend to exhibit worse health-related attributes. Second, present bias, which is measured by the degree of declining impatience, is positively associated with unhealthy behaviors for naïve respondents, who are unaware of their self-control problem. Third, such associations cannot be found in sophisticates, who are aware of that. As a policy implication, direct intervention policies, including "nudging," are more effective than a commitment device provision in correcting the unhealthy behaviors due to present bias. Fourth, the sign effect, wherein future losses are discounted at a lower rate than future gains, is negatively associated with unhealthy outcomes, although at weak statistical significance levels. PMID:26851396

  17. Symmetrically biased T/R switches for NMR and MRI with microsecond dead time.

    PubMed

    Brunner, David O; Furrer, Lukas; Weiger, Markus; Baumberger, Werner; Schmid, Thomas; Reber, Jonas; Dietrich, Benjamin E; Wilm, Bertram J; Froidevaux, Romain; Pruessmann, Klaas P

    2016-02-01

    For direct NMR detection and imaging of compounds with very short coherence life times the dead time between radio-frequency (RF) pulse and reception of the free induction decay (FID) is a major limiting factor. It is typically dominated by the transient and recovery times of currently available transmit-receive (T/R) switches and amplification chains. A novel PIN diode-based T/R switch topology is introduced allowing for fast switching by high bias transient currents but nevertheless producing a very low video leakage signal and insertion loss (0.5dB). The low transient spike level in conjunction with the high isolation (75dB) prevent saturation of the preamplifier entirely which consequently does not require time for recovery. Switching between transmission and reception is demonstrated within less than 1μs in bench tests as well as in acquisitions of FIDs and zero echo time (ZTE) images with bandwidths up to 500kHz at 7T. Thereby the 2kW switch exhibited a rise-time of 350ns (10-99%) producing however a total video leakage of below 20mV peak-to-peak and less than -89dBm in-band. The achieved switching time renders the RF pulse itself the dominant contribution to the dead time in which a coherence cannot be observed, thus making pulsed NMR experiments almost time-optimal even for compounds with very short signal life times. PMID:26796113

  18. Symmetrically biased T/R switches for NMR and MRI with microsecond dead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunner, David O.; Furrer, Lukas; Weiger, Markus; Baumberger, Werner; Schmid, Thomas; Reber, Jonas; Dietrich, Benjamin E.; Wilm, Bertram J.; Froidevaux, Romain; Pruessmann, Klaas P.

    2016-02-01

    For direct NMR detection and imaging of compounds with very short coherence life times the dead time between radio-frequency (RF) pulse and reception of the free induction decay (FID) is a major limiting factor. It is typically dominated by the transient and recovery times of currently available transmit-receive (T/R) switches and amplification chains. A novel PIN diode-based T/R switch topology is introduced allowing for fast switching by high bias transient currents but nevertheless producing a very low video leakage signal and insertion loss (0.5 dB). The low transient spike level in conjunction with the high isolation (75 dB) prevent saturation of the preamplifier entirely which consequently does not require time for recovery. Switching between transmission and reception is demonstrated within less than 1 μs in bench tests as well as in acquisitions of FIDs and zero echo time (ZTE) images with bandwidths up to 500 kHz at 7 T. Thereby the 2 kW switch exhibited a rise-time of 350 ns (10-99%) producing however a total video leakage of below 20 mV peak-to-peak and less than -89 dBm in-band. The achieved switching time renders the RF pulse itself the dominant contribution to the dead time in which a coherence cannot be observed, thus making pulsed NMR experiments almost time-optimal even for compounds with very short signal life times.

  19. Resonance and decay phenomena lead to quantum mechanical time asymmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohm, A.; Bui, H. V.

    2013-04-01

    The states (Schrödinger picture) and observables (Heisenberg picture) in the standard quantum theory evolve symmetrically in time, given by the unitary group with time extending over -∞ < t < +∞. This time evolution is a mathematical consequence of the Hilbert space boundary condition for the dynamical differential equations. However, this unitary group evolution violates causality. Moreover, it does not solve an old puzzle of Wigner: How does one describe excited states of atoms which decay exponentially, and how is their lifetime τ related to the Lorentzian width Γ? These question can be answered if one replaces the Hilbert space boundary condition by new, Hardy space boundary conditions. These Hardy space boundary conditions allow for a distinction between states (prepared by a preparation apparatus) and observables (detected by a registration apparatus). The new Hardy space quantum theory is time asymmetric, i.e, the time evolution is given by the semigroup with t0 <= t < +∞, which predicts a finite "beginning of time" t0, where t0 is the ensemble of time at which each individual system has been prepared. The Hardy space axiom also leads to the new prediction: the width Γ and the lifetime τ are exactly related by τ = hslash/Γ.

  20. Psychometric properties of reaction time based experimental paradigms measuring anxiety-related information-processing biases in children.

    PubMed

    Brown, H M; Eley, T C; Broeren, S; Macleod, C; Rinck, M; Hadwin, J A; Lester, K J

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical frameworks highlight the importance of threat-related information-processing biases for understanding the emergence of anxiety in childhood. The psychometric properties of several tasks measuring these biases and their associations with anxiety were examined in an unselected sample of 9-year-old children (N=155). In each task, threat bias was assessed using bias scores reflecting task performance on threat versus non-threat conditions. Reliability was assessed using split-half and test-retest correlations of mean reaction times (RTs), accuracy and bias indices. Convergence between measures was also examined. Mean RTs showed substantial split-half and test-retest correlations. Bias score reliability coefficients were near zero and non-significant, suggesting poor reliability in children of this age. Additionally, associations between bias scores and anxiety were weak and inconsistent and performance between tasks showed little convergence. Bias scores from RT based paradigms in the current study lacked adequate psychometric properties for measuring individual differences in anxiety-related information-processing in children. PMID:24486916

  1. Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict acute kidney injury were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles) or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice. PMID:26398494

  2. Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury.

    PubMed

    Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

    2016-02-01

    Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict AKI were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias, and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles), or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable, and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis, and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice. PMID:26398494

  3. Time-scale bias in evidence for anthropogenic acceleration of soil erosion and floodplain accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willenbring, J. K.; Hoffmann, T.; Sadler, P.; Kaplan, J. O.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Erkens, G.; von Blanckenburg, F.

    2014-12-01

    The claim that humans modify the landscape more dramatically than any previous geological agent has impacts for river restoration, conservation and models of both nutrient- and carbon-cycling. This view of extreme sediment mobilization driven by human activities is largely based on data, which unfortunately are measured over discrepant timescales that can introduce bias. Comparing denudation rates discerned from cosmogenic nuclides as 'baseline' or 'natural' rates with continent-scale sediment export rates over modern timescales reveals that most cosmogenic nuclide-based erosion rates are faster than human-impacted rates of sediment yield [1]. One explanation for relatively low recent continental sediment yields is that the eroded sediment may be accumulating and stored for an uncertain duration in swelling floodplains and deltas. We present a global compilation of Holocene floodplain accumulation rates. Rates measured over the last ~100 years are faster than those averaged over ~1000 years, which in turn are faster than those for the last ~10000 years. Floodplain sediment accumulation measurements, however, are taken at discreet cores or bank exposures, and this introduces both temporal and spatial bias. Vertical accumulation rates are calculated by dividing thickness of sediment by the time-span of accumulation for discrete packages of sediment. Thus, time integrates from the present to a past datum provided by 14C measurements for buried organics (or other chronological tools). We argue that the pattern of rate increase in sedimentation over time is related to infilling behavior of all floodplains and not specifically tied to the supply of (anthropogenic) sediment. The apparent acceleration in sedimentation rates appears globally synchronous over 8000-year timescales, despite diachronous human and land use histories. Moreover, some rate acceleration pre-dates significant human land use. When the effect/bias of averaging time is accounted for, recent accumulation

  4. Sensitivity bias in the mass-radius distribution from transit timing variations and radial velocity measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, Jason H.

    2016-04-01

    Motivated by recent discussions, both in private and in the literature, we use a Monte Carlo simulation of planetary systems to investigate sources of bias in determining the mass-radius distribution of exoplanets for the two primary techniques used to measure planetary masses - radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs). We assert that mass measurements derived from these two methods are comparably reliable - as the physics underlying their respective signals is well understood. Nevertheless, their sensitivity to planet mass varies with the properties of the planets themselves. We find that for a given planet size, the RV method tends to find planets with higher mass while the sensitivity of TTVs is more uniform. This `sensitivity bias' implies that a complete census of TTV systems is likely to yield a more robust estimate of the mass-radius distribution provided there are not important physical differences between planets near and far from mean-motion resonance. We discuss differences in the sensitivity of the two methods with orbital period and system architecture, which may compound the discrepancies between them (e.g. short-period planets detectable by RVs may be more dense due to atmospheric loss). We advocate for continued mass measurements using both approaches as a means both to measure the masses of more planets and to identify potential differences in planet structure that may result from their dynamical and environmental histories.

  5. A Perceptual Pathway to Bias: Interracial Exposure Reduces Abrupt Shifts in Real-Time Race Perception That Predict Mixed-Race Bias.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Jonathan B; Pauker, Kristin; Sanchez, Diana T

    2016-04-01

    In two national samples, we examined the influence of interracial exposure in one's local environment on the dynamic process underlying race perception and its evaluative consequences. Using a mouse-tracking paradigm, we found in Study 1 that White individuals with low interracial exposure exhibited a unique effect of abrupt, unstable White-Black category shifting during real-time perception of mixed-race faces, consistent with predictions from a neural-dynamic model of social categorization and computational simulations. In Study 2, this shifting effect was replicated and shown to predict a trust bias against mixed-race individuals and to mediate the effect of low interracial exposure on that trust bias. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that interracial exposure shapes the dynamics through which racial categories activate and resolve during real-time perceptions, and these initial perceptual dynamics, in turn, may help drive evaluative biases against mixed-race individuals. Thus, lower-level perceptual aspects of encounters with racial ambiguity may serve as a foundation for mixed-race prejudice. PMID:26976082

  6. Reproducibility and day time bias correction of optoelectronic leg volumetry: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Leg edema is a common manifestation of various underlying pathologies. Reliable measurement tools are required to quantify edema and monitor therapeutic interventions. Aim of the present work was to investigate the reproducibility of optoelectronic leg volumetry over 3 weeks' time period and to eliminate daytime related within-individual variability. Methods Optoelectronic leg volumetry was performed in 63 hairdressers (mean age 45 ± 16 years, 85.7% female) in standing position twice within a minute for each leg and repeated after 3 weeks. Both lower leg (legBD) and whole limb (limbBF) volumetry were analysed. Reproducibility was expressed as analytical and within-individual coefficients of variance (CVA, CVW), and as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Results A total of 492 leg volume measurements were analysed. Both legBD and limbBF volumetry were highly reproducible with CVA of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Within-individual reproducibility of legBD and limbBF volumetry over a three weeks' period was high (CVW 1.3% for both; ICC 0.99 for both). At both visits, the second measurement revealed a significantly higher volume compared to the first measurement with a mean increase of 7.3 ml ± 14.1 (0.33% ± 0.58%) for legBD and 30.1 ml ± 48.5 ml (0.52% ± 0.79%) for limbBF volume. A significant linear correlation between absolute and relative leg volume differences and the difference of exact day time of measurement between the two study visits was found (P < .001). A therefore determined time-correction formula permitted further improvement of CVW. Conclusions Leg volume changes can be reliably assessed by optoelectronic leg volumetry at a single time point and over a 3 weeks' time period. However, volumetry results are biased by orthostatic and daytime-related volume changes. The bias for day-time related volume changes can be minimized by a time-correction formula. PMID:21974893

  7. Methods for bias reduction in time-series studies of particulate matter air pollution and mortality.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2007-04-15

    In many cities of the United States, measurements of ambient particulate matter air pollution (PM) are available only every sixth day. Time-series studies conducted in these cities that investigate the relationship between mortality and PM are restricted to using a single day's PM as the measure of PM exposure, rather than using measurements taken over several consecutive days. Studies showed that using a single-day PM as the measure of PM exposure can result in estimates that have a negative bias, sometimes in the order of over half of the value being estimated. In this article two methods are introduced that can be used to obtain estimates that can in some situations reduce the bias to negligible proportions when only every-sixth-day PM concentrations are available. Using one of these methods, the national average PM mortality effect estimates obtained for total mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively, correspond to 0.27% and 0.39% increases in mortality per 10-microg/m3 increment in PM. The corresponding effect estimates obtained using the single-day lag-1 PM concentration are 0.18% and 0.23%. The estimates obtained using the lag-1 PM concentration were the most widely reported results from the recent multicity National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) analyses. The more accurate estimates obtained from the methods introduced in this article will enable more accurate quantification of the increased incidence in mortality due to elevation in PM levels and the benefit of current or more stringent regulatory standards. PMID:17365620

  8. Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias When Using Medicare Prescription Drug Data

    PubMed Central

    Cook, Elizabeth A.; Schneider, Kathleen M; Chrischilles, Elizabeth; Brooks, John M

    2013-01-01

    Objective To describe the prevalence and correlates of unobservable medication exposure time, and to recommend approaches for minimizing bias, in studies using Medicare Part D data.. Sample 179,065 Medicare patients hospitalized for an AMI in 2007 or 2008. Methods We compared two methods for creating medication exposure observation periods using acute care discharge vs. post-acute care discharge dates. We examined options for increasing cohort sizes by requiring different thresholds for observable days, or by using as a covariate, in the observation period. We calculated the extent and health status correlates of unobserved Medicare Part D exposure time and examined its association with receipt of beta-blockers. Results 39% of patients had unobservable time during the 30 day exposure assessment period following acute care; they were significantly older, had more comorbidity and longer acute care stays, had worse 1-year survival, and were significantly less likely to be classified as beta-blocker users. Using the alternative exposure assessment window, only 29% of the sample had unobservable time, and differences between groups were less pronounced. Significant gains in sample size can be obtained by restricting or controlling for the number of observable days required in the exposure assessment period. Conclusions Unobservable exposure time is common among Medicare Part D beneficiaries, and they are often in worse health. To retain patients with unobservable exposure time, we recommend stratifying patients on receipt of post-acute facility-based care, calculating and using observable days as a covariate and, when appropriate, using the discharge date from contiguous post-acute facility care for beginning the exposure assessment period. PMID:24834364

  9. Lead

    MedlinePlus

    ... Lead Share Facebook Twitter Google+ Pinterest Contact Us Lead Poisoning is Preventable If your home was built before ... of the RRP rule. Read more . Learn about Lead Poisoning Prevention Week . Report Uncertified Contractors and Environmental Violations ...

  10. Do Young and Old Preschoolers Exhibit Response Bias Due to Different Mechanisms? Investigating Children's Response Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okanda, Mako; Itakura, Shoji

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies have suggested that younger preschoolers exhibit a yes bias due to underdeveloped cognitive abilities, whereas older preschoolers exhibit a response bias due to other factors. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the response latency to yes-no questions pertaining to familiar and unfamiliar objects in 3- to 6-year-olds. The…

  11. Lead

    MedlinePlus

    ... obvious symptoms, it frequently goes unrecognized. CDC’s Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program is committed to the Healthy People ... Lead Levels Information for Parents Tips for preventing lead poisoning About Us Overview of CDC’s Childhood Lead Poisoning ...

  12. Mean SST bias and variability at inter-annual and decadal time-scales in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Villamayor, Julian; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the south subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors have impacts on the variability but this is less understood. In this study we try to understand the relation between mean global SST biases and how models perform the variability at different time-scales. To this end, we calculate the SST variability modes for 18 models in the preindustrial control CMIP5 experiment. We first analyse the seasonality of those modes and the inter-model differences. Associated parameters are confronted with the mean SST bias variability among models, thus we conclude how realistic models simulate the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Preliminary results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the Inter-Decadal Pacific variability. Similar mean bias pattern has an effect on the skill for reproducing Pacific El Nino and Atlantic Nino modes. Finally an inter-model SST bias variability mode is found relating errors over the southern upwelling systems with cloud cover around 60S and equatorial precipitation shift. This mode is able to summarize some features in relation with inter-decadal to inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and thus represents a potential tool to understand the wider picture in relation to SST biases and future projections.

  13. The Magnitude of Time-Dependent Bias in the Estimation of Excess Length of Stay Attributable to Healthcare-Associated Infections.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Richard E; Nelson, Scott D; Khader, Karim; Perencevich, Eli L; Schweizer, Marin L; Rubin, Michael A; Graves, Nicholas; Harbarth, Stephan; Stevens, Vanessa W; Samore, Matthew H

    2015-09-01

    BACKGROUND Estimates of the excess length of stay (LOS) attributable to healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in which total LOS of patients with and without HAIs are biased because of failure to account for the timing of infection. Alternate methods that appropriately treat HAI as a time-varying exposure are multistate models and cohort studies, which match regarding the time of infection. We examined the magnitude of this time-dependent bias in published studies that compared different methodological approaches. METHODS We conducted a systematic review of the published literature to identify studies that report attributable LOS estimates using both total LOS (time-fixed) methods and either multistate models or matching patients with and without HAIs using the timing of infection. RESULTS Of the 7 studies that compared time-fixed methods to multistate models, conventional methods resulted in estimates of the LOS to HAIs that were, on average, 9.4 days longer or 238% greater than those generated using multistate models. Of the 5 studies that compared time-fixed methods to matching on timing of infection, conventional methods resulted in estimates of the LOS to HAIs that were, on average, 12.6 days longer or 139% greater than those generated by matching on timing of infection. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that estimates of the attributable LOS due to HAIs depend heavily on the methods used to generate those estimates. Overestimation of this effect can lead to incorrect assumptions of the likely cost savings from HAI prevention measures. PMID:26041436

  14. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes. PMID:26133999

  15. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias.

    PubMed

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes. PMID:26133999

  16. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes.

  17. Stabilization of lead-contaminated soil saves time

    SciTech Connect

    Hasbach, A.

    1995-03-01

    The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) acquired property adjacent to a former battery-cracking facility. The soil contained extremely high levels of lead from past waste disposal activities. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) required WisDOT to perform a remedial investigation and take corrective action. WisDOT retained RMT Inc., Madison, Wisc., to do the work. RMT`s investigation discovered lead levels as high as 50,000 mg/kg in the soil. An action level of 500 mg/kg was negotiated with WDNR. A total of 11 acres exceeded this level; 7.5 acres contained lead exceeding 1,000 mg/kg. In some areas, contamination reached a depth of 12 feet, while in others lead was found only in the top 12 inches. A total of 55,000 cubic yards of soil required treatment. A dig and haul approach to remediation would have cost $200 to $300 per ton. Instead, RMT called for in situ treatment using a patented chemical mixture to tie the lead up in a stable and immobile compound. While it does not render the soil lead free, it does prevent the lead from leaching into nearby soil or groundwater.

  18. Sexual difference in juvenile-hormone titer in workers leads to sex-biased soldier differentiation in termites.

    PubMed

    Toga, Kouhei; Hanmoto, Shutaro; Suzuki, Ryutaro; Watanabe, Dai; Miura, Toru; Maekawa, Kiyoto

    2016-04-01

    In termites, the soldier caste, with its specialized defensive morphology, is one of the most important characteristics for sociality. Most of the basal termite species have both male and female soldiers, and the soldier sex ratio is almost equal or only slightly biased. However, in the apical lineages (especially family Termitidae), there are many species that have soldiers with strongly biased sex ratio. Generally in termites, since high juvenile hormone (JH) titer is required for soldier differentiation from a worker via a presoldier stage, it was hypothesized that the biased soldier-sex ratio was caused by differences in JH sensitivity and/or JH titer between male and female workers. Therefore, we focused on the presoldier differentiation and the worker JH titer in species with only male soldiers (Nasutitermes takasagoensis) and with both male and female soldiers (Reticulitermes speratus) in natural conditions. In the former species, there are four types of workers; male minor, male medium, female medium and female major workers, and presoldiers differentiate from male minor workers. First, we tried to artificially induce presoldiers from male and female workers. In N. takasagoensis, the presoldier differentiation rate and mortality was significantly higher in male minor workers. Morphological analyses showed that both male and female induced presoldiers possessed normal soldier-specific morphologies. It was suggested that female workers, from which soldiers do not differentiate under natural conditions, also maintained the physiological and developmental potential for soldier differentiation. In R. speratus, however, no differences were observed in solder differentiation rate and mortality between male and female workers. Second, the JH titers of each sex/type of workers were quantified by high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry in two different seasons (April and December). The results showed that, in N. takasagoensis, JH titer in male minor

  19. Biased Brownian ratcheting leads to pre-mRNA remodeling and capture prior to first-step splicing

    PubMed Central

    Krishnan, Ramya; Blanco, Mario; Kahlscheuer, Matthew; Abelson, John; Guthrie, Christine; Walter, Nils G.

    2013-01-01

    The spliceosome is a dynamic ribonucleoprotein (RNP) machine that catalyzes the removal of introns in the two transesterification steps of eukaryotic pre-mRNA splicing. Here we used single molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer to monitor the distance of the 5′ splice site (5′SS) and branchpoint (BP) of pre-mRNA in affinity-purified spliceosomes stalled by a mutation in the DExD/H-box helicase Prp2 immediately prior to the first splicing step. Addition of recombinant Prp2 together with NTP and protein cofactor Spp2 rearranges the spliceosome-substrate complex to reversibly explore conformations with proximal 5′SS and BP that accommodate chemistry. Addition of Cwc25 then strongly biases this equilibrium towards the proximal conformation, promoting efficient first-step splicing. The spliceosome thus functions as a biased Brownian ratchet machine where a helicase unlocks thermal fluctuations subsequently rectified by a cofactor “pawl”, a principle possibly widespread among the many helicase-driven RNPs. PMID:24240612

  20. Real time tests for long lead-time forecasting of the magnetic field vectors within CMEs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savani, Neel; Vourlidas, Angelos; Pulkkinen, Antti; Wold, Alexandra M.

    2016-07-01

    The direction of magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections, CMEs, has significant importance for forecasting terrestrial behavior. We have developed a technique to estimate the time-varying magnetic field at Earth for periods within CMEs (Savani et al 2015, 2016). This technique reduces the complex dynamics in order to create a reliable prediction methodology to operate everyday under robust conditions. In this presentation, we focus on the results and skill scores of the forecasting technique calculated from 40 historical CME events from the pre-STEREO mission. Since these results provided substantial improvements in the long lead-time Kp index forecasts, we have now begun testing under real-time conditions. We will also show the preliminary results of our methodology under these real-time conditions within the CCMC hosted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

  1. Non Linear Optimization Applied to Angle-Of Satellite Based Geo-Localization for Biased and Time-Drifting Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, Daniel; Roos, Jason; Robinson, Jace; Carpenter, William; Martin, Richard; Taylor, Clark; Sugrue, Joseph; Terzuoli, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    Multiple sensors are used in a variety of geolocation systems. Many use Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) or Received Signal Strength (RSS) measurements to estimate the most likely location of a signal. When an object does not emit an RF signal, Angle of Arrival (AOA) measurements using optical or infrared frequencies become more feasible than TDOA or RSS measurements. AOA measurements can be created from any sensor platform with any sort of optical sensor, location and attitude knowledge to track passive objects. Previous work has created a non-linear optimization (NLO) method for calculating the most likely estimate from AOA measurements. Two new modifications to the NLO algorithm are created and shown to correct AOA measurement errors by estimating the inherent bias and time-drift in the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) of the AOA sensing platform. One method corrects the sensor bias in post processing while treating the NLO method as a module. The other method directly corrects the sensor bias within the NLO algorithm by incorporating the bias parameters as a state vector in the estimation process. These two methods are analyzed using various Monte-Carlo simulations to check the general performance of the two modifications in comparison to the original NLO algorithm.

  2. Real-time Sub-cm Differential Orbit Determination of two Low-Earth Orbiters with GPS Bias Fixing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Sien-Chong; Bar-Sever, Yoaz E.

    2006-01-01

    An effective technique for real-time differential orbit determination with GPS bias fixing is formulated. With this technique, only real-time GPS orbits and clocks are needed (available from the NASA Global Differential GPS System with 10-20 cm accuracy). The onboard, realtime orbital states of user satellites (few meters in accuracy) are used for orbit initialization and integration. An extended Kalman filter is constructed for the estimation of the differential orbit between the two satellites as well as a reference orbit, together with their associating dynamics parameters. Due to close proximity of the two satellites and of similar body shapes, the differential dynamics are highly common and can be tightly constrained which, in turn, strengthens the orbit estimation. Without explicit differencing of GPS data, double-differenced phase biases are formed by a transformation matrix. Integer-valued fixing of these biases are then performed which greatly strengthens the orbit estimation. A 9-day demonstration between GRACE orbits with baselines of approx.200 km indicates that approx.80% of the double-differenced phase biases can successfully be fixed and the differential orbit can be determined to approx.7 mm as compared to the results of onboard K-band ranging.

  3. Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris.

    PubMed

    Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

  4. Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

  5. Lens galaxies in the Illustris simulation: power-law models and the bias of the Hubble constant from time delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Dandan; Sluse, Dominique; Schneider, Peter; Springel, Volker; Vogelsberger, Mark; Nelson, Dylan; Hernquist, Lars

    2016-02-01

    A power-law density model, i.e. ρ (r) ∝ r^{-γ ^' }}, has been commonly employed in strong gravitational lensing studies, including the so-called time-delay technique used to infer the Hubble constant H0. However, since the radial scale at which strong lensing features are formed corresponds to the transition from the dominance of baryonic matter to dark matter, there is no known reason why galaxies should follow a power law in density. The assumption of a power law artificially breaks the mass-sheet degeneracy, a well-known invariance transformation in gravitational lensing which affects the product of Hubble constant and time delay and can therefore cause a bias in the determination of H0 from the time-delay technique. In this paper, we use the Illustris hydrodynamical simulations to estimate the amplitude of this bias, and to understand how it is related to observational properties of galaxies. Investigating a large sample of Illustris galaxies that have velocity dispersion σSIE ≥ 160 km s-1 at redshifts below z = 1, we find that the bias on H0 introduced by the power-law assumption can reach 20-50 per cent, with a scatter of 10-30 per cent (rms). However, we find that by selecting galaxies with an inferred power-law model slope close to isothermal, it is possible to reduce the bias on H0 to ≲ 5 per cent and the scatter to ≲ 10 per cent. This could potentially be used to form less biased statistical samples for H0 measurements in the upcoming large survey era.

  6. Statistical modelling of forecast errors for multiple lead-times and a system of reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

    2010-05-01

    Water resources management, e.g. operation of reservoirs, is amongst others based on forecasts of inflow provided by a precipitation-runoff model. The forecasted inflow is normally given as one value, even though it is an uncertain value. There is a growing interest to account for uncertain information in decision support systems, e.g. how to operate a hydropower reservoir to maximize the gain. One challenge is to develop decision support systems that can use uncertain information. The contribution from the hydrological modeler is to derive a forecast distribution (from which uncertainty intervals can be computed) for the inflow predictions. In this study we constructed a statistical model for the forecast errors for daily inflow into a system of four hydropower reservoirs in Ulla-Førre in Western Norway. A distributed hydrological model was applied to generate the inflow forecasts using weather forecasts provided by ECM for lead-times up to 10 days. The precipitation forecasts were corrected for systematic bias. A statistical model based on auto-regressive innovations for Box-Cox-transformed observations and forecasts was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters of the statistical model were conditioned on climate and the internal snow state in the hydrological model. The model was evaluated according to the reliability of the forecast distribution, the width of the forecast distribution, and efficiency of the median forecast for the 10 lead times and the four catchments. The interpretation of the results had to be done carefully since the inflow data have a large uncertainty.

  7. Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, Catherine A.

    2008-01-01

    Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

  8. Real Time Corrosion Monitoring in Lead and Lead-Bismuth Systems

    SciTech Connect

    James F. Stubbins; Alan Bolind; Ziang Chen

    2010-02-25

    The objective of this research program is to develop a real-time, in situ corrosion monitoring technique for flowing liquid Pb and eutectic PbBi (LBE) systems in a temperature range of 400 to 650 C. These conditions are relevant to future liquid metal cooled fast reactor operating parameters. THis program was aligned with the Gen IV Reactor initiative to develp technologies to support the design and opertion of a Pb or LBE-cooled fast reactor. The ability to monitor corrosion for protection of structural components is a high priority issue for the safe and prolonged operation of advanced liquid metal fast reactor systems. In those systems, protective oxide layers are intentionally formed and maintained to limit corrosion rates during operation. This program developed a real time, in situ corrosion monitoring tecnique using impedance spectroscopy (IS) technology.

  9. Leading the Charge for Real-Time Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aarons, Dakarai I.

    2009-01-01

    Well before the idea of using data to manage schools gained prominence on the national stage, Oklahoma's Western Heights school district had made the ideal of real-time, data-driven decisionmaking a reality. Back in 2001, Superintendent Joe Kitchens was already being spotlighted for his focus on creating a longitudinal-data system that would give…

  10. Real-time DC-dynamic biasing method for switching time improvement in severely underdamped fringing-field electrostatic MEMS actuators.

    PubMed

    Small, Joshua; Fruehling, Adam; Garg, Anurag; Liu, Xiaoguang; Peroulis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Mechanically underdamped electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators are well known for their fast switching operation in response to a unit step input bias voltage. However, the tradeoff for the improved switching performance is a relatively long settling time to reach each gap height in response to various applied voltages. Transient applied bias waveforms are employed to facilitate reduced switching times for electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators with high mechanical quality factors. Removing the underlying substrate of the fringing-field actuator creates the low mechanical damping environment necessary to effectively test the concept. The removal of the underlying substrate also a has substantial improvement on the reliability performance of the device in regards to failure due to stiction. Although DC-dynamic biasing is useful in improving settling time, the required slew rates for typical MEMS devices may place aggressive requirements on the charge pumps for fully-integrated on-chip designs. Additionally, there may be challenges integrating the substrate removal step into the back-end-of-line commercial CMOS processing steps. Experimental validation of fabricated actuators demonstrates an improvement of 50x in switching time when compared to conventional step biasing results. Compared to theoretical calculations, the experimental results are in good agreement. PMID:25145811

  11. Real-Time DC-dynamic Biasing Method for Switching Time Improvement in Severely Underdamped Fringing-field Electrostatic MEMS Actuators

    PubMed Central

    Small, Joshua; Fruehling, Adam; Garg, Anurag; Liu, Xiaoguang; Peroulis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Mechanically underdamped electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators are well known for their fast switching operation in response to a unit step input bias voltage. However, the tradeoff for the improved switching performance is a relatively long settling time to reach each gap height in response to various applied voltages. Transient applied bias waveforms are employed to facilitate reduced switching times for electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators with high mechanical quality factors. Removing the underlying substrate of the fringing-field actuator creates the low mechanical damping environment necessary to effectively test the concept. The removal of the underlying substrate also a has substantial improvement on the reliability performance of the device in regards to failure due to stiction. Although DC-dynamic biasing is useful in improving settling time, the required slew rates for typical MEMS devices may place aggressive requirements on the charge pumps for fully-integrated on-chip designs. Additionally, there may be challenges integrating the substrate removal step into the back-end-of-line commercial CMOS processing steps. Experimental validation of fabricated actuators demonstrates an improvement of 50x in switching time when compared to conventional step biasing results. Compared to theoretical calculations, the experimental results are in good agreement. PMID:25145811

  12. Trends in the emitter-base bias dependence of the average base transit time through abrupt heterojunction bipolar transistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, T.; Cahay, M.; Roenker, K.

    1996-11-01

    The average base transit time is computed using a current impulse response technique for three typical abrupt Npn heterojunction bipolar transistors as a function of the emitter-base bias, VBE. This technique is based on a hybrid model of carrier transport incorporating a quantum-mechanical analysis of carrier injection at the emitter-base junction and a Monte Carlo analysis of base transport. For typical AlGaAs/GaAs and InP/InGaAs structures, the base transit time first increases with VBE, reaches a maximum, and then decreases towards a value close to the one predicted using a semi-Maxwellian injection of carriers into the base at an energy equal to the emitter-base conduction band spike. For a typical InAlAs/InGaAs structure, the average base transit time is found to decrease with an increase in VBE. For all structures, we show that there is a correlation between the bias dependence of the average base transit time and the bias dependence of the average number of collisions per carrier (calculated for carriers transmitted across the base).

  13. Depression biased non-Hebbian spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity in the rat subiculum.

    PubMed

    Pandey, Anurag; Sikdar, Sujit Kumar

    2014-08-15

    The subiculum is a structure that forms a bridge between the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex (EC), and plays a major role in the memory consolidation process. Here, we demonstrate spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) at the proximal excitatory inputs on the subicular pyramidal neurons of juvenile rat. Causal (positive) pairing of a single EPSP with a single back-propagating action potential (bAP) after a time interval of 10 ms (+10 ms) failed to induce plasticity. However, increasing the number of bAPs in a burst to three, at two different frequencies of 50 Hz (bAP burst) and 150 Hz, induced long-term depression (LTD) after a time interval of +10 ms in both the regular-firing (RF), and the weak burst firing (WBF) neurons. The LTD amplitude decreased with increasing time interval between the EPSP and the bAP burst. Reversing the order of the pairing of the EPSP and the bAP burst induced LTP at a time interval of -10 ms. This finding is in contrast with reports at other synapses, wherein pre- before postsynaptic (causal) pairing induced LTP and vice versa. Our results reaffirm the earlier observations that the relative timing of the pre- and postsynaptic activities can lead to multiple types of plasticity profiles. The induction of timing-dependent LTD (t-LTD) was dependent on postsynaptic calcium change via NMDA receptors in the WBF neurons, while it was independent of postsynaptic calcium change, but required active L-type calcium channels in the RF neurons. Thus the mechanism of synaptic plasticity may vary within a hippocampal subfield depending on the postsynaptic neuron involved. This study also reports a novel mechanism of LTD induction, where L-type calcium channels are involved in a presynaptically induced synaptic plasticity. The findings may have strong implications in the memory consolidation process owing to the central role of the subiculum and LTD in this process. PMID:24907304

  14. Depression biased non-Hebbian spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity in the rat subiculum

    PubMed Central

    Pandey, Anurag; Sikdar, Sujit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The subiculum is a structure that forms a bridge between the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex (EC), and plays a major role in the memory consolidation process. Here, we demonstrate spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) at the proximal excitatory inputs on the subicular pyramidal neurons of juvenile rat. Causal (positive) pairing of a single EPSP with a single back-propagating action potential (bAP) after a time interval of 10 ms (+10 ms) failed to induce plasticity. However, increasing the number of bAPs in a burst to three, at two different frequencies of 50 Hz (bAP burst) and 150 Hz, induced long-term depression (LTD) after a time interval of +10 ms in both the regular-firing (RF), and the weak burst firing (WBF) neurons. The LTD amplitude decreased with increasing time interval between the EPSP and the bAP burst. Reversing the order of the pairing of the EPSP and the bAP burst induced LTP at a time interval of −10 ms. This finding is in contrast with reports at other synapses, wherein pre- before postsynaptic (causal) pairing induced LTP and vice versa. Our results reaffirm the earlier observations that the relative timing of the pre- and postsynaptic activities can lead to multiple types of plasticity profiles. The induction of timing-dependent LTD (t-LTD) was dependent on postsynaptic calcium change via NMDA receptors in the WBF neurons, while it was independent of postsynaptic calcium change, but required active L-type calcium channels in the RF neurons. Thus the mechanism of synaptic plasticity may vary within a hippocampal subfield depending on the postsynaptic neuron involved. This study also reports a novel mechanism of LTD induction, where L-type calcium channels are involved in a presynaptically induced synaptic plasticity. The findings may have strong implications in the memory consolidation process owing to the central role of the subiculum and LTD in this process. PMID:24907304

  15. Towards uniform accelerometry analysis: a standardization methodology to minimize measurement bias due to systematic accelerometer wear-time variation.

    PubMed

    Katapally, Tarun R; Muhajarine, Nazeem

    2014-05-01

    Accelerometers are predominantly used to objectively measure the entire range of activity intensities - sedentary behaviour (SED), light physical activity (LPA) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). However, studies consistently report results without accounting for systematic accelerometer wear-time variation (within and between participants), jeopardizing the validity of these results. This study describes the development of a standardization methodology to understand and minimize measurement bias due to wear-time variation. Accelerometry is generally conducted over seven consecutive days, with participants' data being commonly considered 'valid' only if wear-time is at least 10 hours/day. However, even within 'valid' data, there could be systematic wear-time variation. To explore this variation, accelerometer data of Smart Cities, Healthy Kids study (www.smartcitieshealthykids.com) were analyzed descriptively and with repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). Subsequently, a standardization method was developed, where case-specific observed wear-time is controlled to an analyst specified time period. Next, case-specific accelerometer data are interpolated to this controlled wear-time to produce standardized variables. To understand discrepancies owing to wear-time variation, all analyses were conducted pre- and post-standardization. Descriptive analyses revealed systematic wear-time variation, both between and within participants. Pre- and post-standardized descriptive analyses of SED, LPA and MVPA revealed a persistent and often significant trend of wear-time's influence on activity. SED was consistently higher on weekdays before standardization; however, this trend was reversed post-standardization. Even though MVPA was significantly higher on weekdays both pre- and post-standardization, the magnitude of this difference decreased post-standardization. Multivariable analyses with standardized SED, LPA and MVPA as outcome

  16. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C. ); Bender, M.A. )

    1993-01-01

    Investigations have been carried out which have measured the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that: (1) There are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G2 repair system, in which the pair of chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second also operates in G1 and S, and is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. (2) The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase but operates even when the repair enzymes are active. (3) The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. (4) The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously (e.g., most of a cell cycle). 29 refs., 1 fig.

  17. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C. ); Bender, M.A. )

    1993-01-01

    Investigations have been carried out on the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single-strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single-strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that there are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G[sub 2] repair system, in which either of the two chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase repair, but also operates even when the repair enzymes are active. The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously.

  18. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C.; Bender, M.A.

    1993-05-01

    Investigations have been carried out on the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single-strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single-strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that there are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G{sub 2} repair system, in which either of the two chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase repair, but also operates even when the repair enzymes are active. The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously.

  19. Mitochondrial DNA as a non-invasive biomarker: Accurate quantification using real time quantitative PCR without co-amplification of pseudogenes and dilution bias

    SciTech Connect

    Malik, Afshan N.; Shahni, Rojeen; Rodriguez-de-Ledesma, Ana; Laftah, Abas; Cunningham, Phil

    2011-08-19

    Highlights: {yields} Mitochondrial dysfunction is central to many diseases of oxidative stress. {yields} 95% of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome. {yields} Dilution of untreated genomic DNA leads to dilution bias. {yields} Unique primers and template pretreatment are needed to accurately measure mitochondrial DNA content. -- Abstract: Circulating mitochondrial DNA (MtDNA) is a potential non-invasive biomarker of cellular mitochondrial dysfunction, the latter known to be central to a wide range of human diseases. Changes in MtDNA are usually determined by quantification of MtDNA relative to nuclear DNA (Mt/N) using real time quantitative PCR. We propose that the methodology for measuring Mt/N needs to be improved and we have identified that current methods have at least one of the following three problems: (1) As much of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome, many commonly used MtDNA primers co-amplify homologous pseudogenes found in the nuclear genome; (2) use of regions from genes such as {beta}-actin and 18S rRNA which are repetitive and/or highly variable for qPCR of the nuclear genome leads to errors; and (3) the size difference of mitochondrial and nuclear genomes cause a 'dilution bias' when template DNA is diluted. We describe a PCR-based method using unique regions in the human mitochondrial genome not duplicated in the nuclear genome; unique single copy region in the nuclear genome and template treatment to remove dilution bias, to accurately quantify MtDNA from human samples.

  20. A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarani, Sam

    2010-01-01

    The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of the ring world. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the Reaction Control System (or RCS) and the Reaction Wheel Assembly (RWA) control system. In the course of its mission, Cassini performs numerous reaction wheel momentum biases (or unloads) using its reaction control thrusters. The use of the RCS thrusters often imparts undesired velocity changes (delta Vs) on the spacecraft and it is crucial for Cassini navigation and attitude control teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V vector in Earth Mean Equatorial (J2000) inertial coordinates for reaction wheel bias events, without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in a dynamic or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The flight-calibrated methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide the RCS thruster on-times, with acceptable accuracy and without any form of dynamic simulation, for reaction wheel biases, along with the hydrazine usage and the delta V in EME-2000 inertial frame.

  1. Renormalized halo bias

    SciTech Connect

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Green, Daniel; Zaldarriaga, Matias E-mail: dbaumann@damtp.cam.ac.uk E-mail: matiasz@ias.edu

    2014-08-01

    This paper provides a systematic study of renormalization in models of halo biasing. Building on work of McDonald, we show that Eulerian biasing is only consistent with renormalization if non-local terms and higher-derivative contributions are included in the biasing model. We explicitly determine the complete list of required bias parameters for Gaussian initial conditions, up to quartic order in the dark matter density contrast and at leading order in derivatives. At quadratic order, this means including the gravitational tidal tensor, while at cubic order the velocity potential appears as an independent degree of freedom. Our study naturally leads to an effective theory of biasing in which the halo density is written as a double expansion in fluctuations and spatial derivatives. We show that the bias expansion can be organized in terms of Galileon operators which aren't renormalized at leading order in derivatives. Finally, we discuss how the renormalized bias parameters impact the statistics of halos.

  2. Time differences in the formation of meteorites as determined from the ratio of lead-207 to lead-206

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tatsumoto, M.; Knight, R.J.; Allegre, C.J.

    1973-01-01

    Measurements of the lead isotopic composition and the uranium, thorium, and lead concentrations in meteorites were made in order to obtain more precise radiometric ages of these members of the solar system. The newly determined value of the lead isotopic composition of Canyon Diablo troilite is as follows: 206Pb/204Pb = 9.307, 207Pb/204Pb = 10.294, and 208Pb/204Pb = 29.476. The leads of Angra dos Reis, Sioux County, and Nuevo Laredo achondrites are very radiogenic, the 206Pb/204Pb values are about 200, and the uranium-thorium-lead systems are nearly concordant. The ages of the meteorites as calculated from a single-stage 207Pb/206Pb isochron based on the newly determined primordial lead value and the newly reported 235U and 238U decay constants, are 4.528 ?? 10 9 years for Sioux County and Nuevo Laredo and 4.555 ?? 10 9 years for Angra dos Reis. When calculated with the uranium decay constants used by Patterson, these ages are 4.593 ?? 109 years and 4.620 ?? 109 years, respectively, and are therefore 40 to 70 ?? 106 years older than the 4.55 ?? 109 years age Patterson reported. The age difference of 27 ?? 106 years between Angra dos Reis and the other two meteorites is compatible with the difference between the initial 87Sr/86Sr ratio of Angra dos Reis and that of seven basaltic achondrites observed by Papanastassiou and Wasserburg. The time difference is also comparable to that determined by 129I-129Xe chronology. The ages of ordinary chondrites (H5 and L6) range from 4.52 to 4.57 ?? 109 years, and, here too, time differences in the formation of the parent bodies or later metamorphic events are indicated. Carbonaceous chondrites (C2 and C3) appear to contain younger lead components.

  3. Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

  4. A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarani, Siamak

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for accurate and flight-calibrated determination of the on-times of the Cassini spacecraft Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters, without any form of dynamic simulation, for the reaction wheel biases. The hydrazine usage and the delta V vector in body frame are also computed from the respective thruster on-times. The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake ambitious and unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of Saturn. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the RCS and the reaction wheel assembly control system. The RCS is used to execute a commanded spacecraft slew, to maintain three-axis attitude control, control spacecraft's attitude while performing science observations with coarse pointing requirements, e.g. during targeted low-altitude Titan and Enceladus flybys, bias the momentum of reaction wheels, and to perform RCS-based orbit trim maneuvers. The use of RCS often imparts undesired delta V on the spacecraft. The Cassini navigation team requires accurate predictions of the delta V in spacecraft coordinates and inertial frame resulting from slews using RCS thrusters and more importantly from reaction wheel bias events. It is crucial for the Cassini spacecraft attitude control and navigation teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V for various reaction wheel bias events without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in flight software-based dynamic simulation or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide just that. This methodology assumes a priori knowledge of thrust magnitudes and thruster pulse rise and tail-off time

  5. Selection bias in rheumatic disease research

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hyon K.; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

    2014-01-01

    The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the ‘risk factor paradox’—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research. PMID:24686510

  6. The Influence of Referee Bias on Extra Time in Elite Soccer Matches.

    PubMed

    Lago-Peñas, Carlos; Gómez-López, Maite

    2016-04-01

    Referees have discretion over the addition of extra time at the end of the soccer game to compensate for lost time due to unusual stoppages. This study assesses if referees favor big teams by shortening close games where the big team is ahead and lengthening close games where the big team is behind. The sample comprises all 380 matches in the Spanish La Liga during the 2014-2015 season. The dependent variable was the extra time the referee decides to add to the second half. The independent variables were the score difference, opponent team's level of play, yellow cards, red cards, player substitutions, average attendance, and fouls committed. Linear regression analysis suggested that the greater the score difference between teams, the less extra time was added by the referee. However, in close games, referees tended to add more time for a higher level team when they were behind and add less time when they were ahead. Red cards and the number of fouls committed increased the extra time. PMID:27166341

  7. It's about Time: Leading School Reform in an Era of Time Scarcity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruno, James E.

    Research about the American experience with school reform has underscored time as the major obstacle to change. This book presents a psychosocial perspective of time and the problems it presents for teachers and administrators in an era of time scarcity. Specifically, it explores the effects of five major concepts (time investment portfolios,…

  8. Odour-tracking capability of a silkmoth driving a mobile robot with turning bias and time delay.

    PubMed

    Ando, N; Emoto, S; Kanzaki, R

    2013-03-01

    The reconstruction of mechanisms behind odour-tracking behaviours of animals is expected to enable the development of biomimetic robots capable of adaptive behaviour and effectively locating odour sources. However, because the behavioural mechanisms of animals have not been extensively studied, their behavioural capabilities cannot be verified. In this study, we have employed a mobile robot driven by a genuine insect (insect-controlled robot) to evaluate the behavioural capabilities of a biological system implemented in an artificial system. We used a male silkmoth as the 'driver' and investigated its behavioural capabilities to imposed perturbations during odour tracking. When we manipulated the robot to induce the turning bias, it located the odour source by compensatory turning of the on-board moth. Shifting of the orientation paths to the odour plume boundaries and decreased orientation ability caused by covering the visual field suggested that the moth steered with bilateral olfaction and vision to overcome the bias. An evaluation of the time delays of the moth and robot movements suggested an acceptable range for sensory-motor processing when the insect system was directly applied to artificial systems. Further evaluations of the insect-controlled robot will provide a 'blueprint' for biomimetic robots and strongly promote the field of biomimetics. PMID:23385386

  9. Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

    2016-01-01

    Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

  10. Timing Bias in the Psychiatry Subject Examination of the National Board of Medical Examiners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manley, Myrl; Heiss, Glenn

    2006-01-01

    Objective: The authors investigate whether the timing of the psychiatry clerkship influences scores on the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) subject exam as has been reported for other clerkships. The authors attempt to identify which clerkships, if any, offer an advantage when taken before psychiatry. Methods: Mean aggregate exam scores…

  11. The North Atlantic Cold Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greatbatch, Richard; Drews, Annika; Ding, Hui; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-04-01

    The North Atlantic cold bias, associated with a too zonal path of the North Atlantic Current and a missing "northwest corner", is a common problem in coupled climate and forecast models. The bias affects the North Atlantic and European climate mean state, variability and predictability. We investigate the use of a flow field correction to adjust the path of the North Atlantic Current as well as additional corrections to the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. Results using the Kiel Climate Model show that the flow field correction allows a northward flow into the northwest corner, largely eliminating the bias below the surface layer. A surface cold bias remains but can be eliminated by additionally correcting the surface freshwater flux, without adjusting the surface heat flux seen by the ocean model. A model version in which only the surface fluxes of heat and freshwater are corrected continues to exhibit the incorrect path of the North Atlantic Current and a strong subsurface bias. Removing the bias impacts the multi-decadal time scale variability in the model and leads to a better representation of the SST pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability than the uncorrected model.

  12. Further Explorations of the Facing Bias in Biological Motion Perception: Perspective Cues, Observer Sex, and Response Times

    PubMed Central

    Schouten, Ben; Davila, Alex; Verfaillie, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The human visual system has evolved to be highly sensitive to visual information about other persons and their movements as is illustrated by the effortless perception of point-light figures or ‘biological motion’. When presented orthographically, a point-light walker is interpreted in two anatomically plausible ways: As ‘facing the viewer’ or as ‘facing away’ from the viewer. However, human observers show a ‘facing bias’: They perceive such a point-light walker as facing towards them in about 70-80% of the cases. In studies exploring the role of social and biological relevance as a possible account for the facing bias, we found a ‘figure gender effect’: Male point-light figures elicit a stronger facing bias than female point-light figures. Moreover, we also found an ‘observer gender effect’: The ‘figure gender effect’ was stronger for male than for female observers. In the present study we presented to 11 males and 11 females point-light walkers of which, very subtly, the perspective information was manipulated by modifying the earlier reported ‘perspective technique’. Proportions of ‘facing the viewer’ responses and reaction times were recorded. Results show that human observers, even in the absence of local shape or size cues, easily pick up on perspective cues, confirming recent demonstrations of high visual sensitivity to cues on whether another person is potentially approaching. We also found a consistent difference in how male and female observers respond to stimulus variations (figure gender or perspective cues) that cause variations in the perceived in-depth orientation of a point-light walker. Thus, the ‘figure gender effect’ is possibly caused by changes in the relative locations and motions of the dots that the perceptual system tends to interpret as perspective cues. Third, reaction time measures confirmed the existence of the facing bias and recent research showing faster detection of approaching than receding

  13. Quantification Bias Caused by Plasmid DNA Conformation in Quantitative Real-Time PCR Assay

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Chih-Hui; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Pan, Tzu-Ming

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) is the gold standard for the quantification of specific nucleic acid sequences. However, a serious concern has been revealed in a recent report: supercoiled plasmid standards cause significant over-estimation in qPCR quantification. In this study, we investigated the effect of plasmid DNA conformation on the quantification of DNA and the efficiency of qPCR. Our results suggest that plasmid DNA conformation has significant impact on the accuracy of absolute quantification by qPCR. DNA standard curves shifted significantly among plasmid standards with different DNA conformations. Moreover, the choice of DNA measurement method and plasmid DNA conformation may also contribute to the measurement error of DNA standard curves. Due to the multiple effects of plasmid DNA conformation on the accuracy of qPCR, efforts should be made to assure the highest consistency of plasmid standards for qPCR. Thus, we suggest that the conformation, preparation, quantification, purification, handling, and storage of standard plasmid DNA should be described and defined in the Minimum Information for Publication of Quantitative Real-Time PCR Experiments (MIQE) to assure the reproducibility and accuracy of qPCR absolute quantification. PMID:22194997

  14. First passage time distributions of anomalous biased diffusion with double absorbing barriers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Gang; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2014-10-01

    We investigate the first passage time (FPT) problem of anomalous diffusion governed by the Galilei variant fractional diffusion-advection equation in the semi-infinite and finite domains subject to an absorbing boundary condition. We obtain explicit solutions for the FPT distributions and the corresponding Laplace transforms for both zero and constant drift cases by using the method of separation of variables as well as the properties of the Fox H function. An important relation between the FPT distributions corresponding to one and two absorbing barriers is revealed to determine the conditional FPT distributions. It shows that the proportion between the conditional FPT distributions only depends on the general Péclet number. We further discuss the asymptotic behavior of the FPT distributions and confirm our theoretical analysis by numerical results.

  15. Are Secondary School Students Still Hampered by the Natural Number Bias? A Reaction Time Study on Fraction Comparison Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Hoof, Jo; Lijnen, Tristan; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Rational numbers and particularly fractions are difficult for students. It is often claimed that the "natural number bias" underlies erroneous reasoning about rational numbers. This cross-sectional study investigated the natural number bias in first and fifth year secondary school students. Relying on dual process theory assumptions that…

  16. Effective use of general circulation model outputs for forecasting monthly rainfalls to long lead times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawthorne, Sandra; Wang, Q. J.; Schepen, Andrew; Robertson, David

    2013-09-01

    Long lead rainfall forecasts are highly valuable for planning and management of water resources and agriculture. In this study, we establish multiple statistical calibration and bridging models that use general circulation model (GCM) outputs as predictors to produce monthly rainfall forecasts for Australia with lead times up to 8 months. The statistical calibration models make use of raw forecasts of rainfall from a coupled GCM, and the statistical bridging models make use of sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts of the GCM. The forecasts from the multiple models are merged through Bayesian model averaging to take advantage of the strengths of individual models. The skill of monthly rainfall forecasts is generally low. Compared to forecasting seasonal rainfall totals, it is more challenging to forecast monthly rainfall. However, there are regions and months for which forecasts are skillful. In particular, there are months of the year for which forecasts can be skillfully made at long lead times. This is most evident for the period of November and December. Using GCM forecasts of SST through bridging clearly improves monthly rainfall forecasts. For lead time 0, the improvement is particularly evident for February to March, July and October to December. For longer lead times, the benefit of bridging is more apparent. As lead time increases, bridging is able to maintain forecast skill much better than when only calibration is applied.

  17. Real-time bias-adjusted O 3 and PM 2.5 air quality index forecasts and their performance evaluations over the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Daiwen; Mathur, Rohit; Trivikrama Rao, S.

    2010-06-01

    The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O 3) and experimental fine particular matter (PM 2.5) forecasts over the continental United States (CONUS) during 2008. This paper describes the implementation of a real-time Kalman Filter (KF) bias-adjustment technique to improve the accuracy of O 3 and PM 2.5 forecasts at discrete monitoring locations. The operational surface-level O 3 and PM 2.5 forecasts from the NAQFC system were post-processed by the KF bias-adjusted technique using near real-time hourly O 3 and PM 2.5 observations obtained from EPA's AIRNow measurement network. The KF bias-adjusted forecasts were created daily, providing 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts for O 3 and PM 2.5 at all AIRNow monitoring sites within the CONUS domain. The bias-adjustment post-processing implemented in this study requires minimal computational cost; requiring less than 10 min of CPU on a single processor Linux machine to generate 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts over the entire CONUS domain. The results show that the real-time KF bias-adjusted forecasts for both O 3 and PM 2.5 have performed as well as or even better than the previous studies when the same technique was applied to the historical O 3 and PM 2.5 time series from archived AQF in earlier years. Compared to the raw forecasts, the KF forecasts displayed significant improvement in the daily maximum 8-h O 3 and daily mean PM 2.5 forecasts in terms of both discrete (i.e., reduced errors, increased correlation coefficients, and index of agreement) and categorical (increased hit rate and decreased false alarm ratio) evaluation metrics at almost all locations during the study period in 2008.

  18. Temperature trend biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

  19. Local Polarization Dynamics and Bias-Induced Phase Transitions in Ferroelectric Relaxors: Time-resolved Spectroscopy and Ergodic Gap Mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalinin, S. V.; Rodriguez, B.; Nikiforov, M. P.; Balke, N.; Jesse, S.; Ovchinnikov, O. S.; Bokov, A. A.; Ye, Z.-G.

    2009-03-01

    Mesoscopic domain structure and dynamics in PMN-PT solis solutions is studied using spatially resolved time- and voltage spectroscopic imaging modes. For compositions close to the MPB, we observe the formation of classical ferroelectric domains with rough self-affine boundaries. In the ergodic phase (PMN and PMN-10PT), the formation of non-classical labyrinthine domain patterns characterized by a single characteristic length scale is observed. The (a) persistence of these patterns well above Tc and (b) the fact that cannot be switched by tip bias suggest that they can be attributed to the frozen polarization component. Spatial variability of polarization relaxation dynamics in PMN-10PT is studied. Local relaxation attributed to the reorientation of polar nanoregions was found to follow stretched exponential dependence, with β 0.4, much larger than the macroscopic value determined from dielectric spectra (β 0.09). The spatial inhomogeneity of relaxation time distribution with the presence of 100-200 nm ``fast'' and ``slow'' regions is observed. The results are analyzed to map the Vogel-Fulcher temperatures on the nanoscale. The applicability of this technique to map ``ergodic gap'' distribution on the surface is discussed. Research supported by the Division of Materials Science and Engineering, Basic Energy Sciences, U.S. Department of Energy at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC.

  20. Time Course of Visual Attention in Infant Categorization of Cats versus Dogs: Evidence for a Head Bias as Revealed through Eye Tracking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Paul C.; Doran, Matthew M.; Reiss, Jason E.; Hoffman, James E.

    2009-01-01

    Previous looking time studies have shown that infants use the heads of cat and dog images to form category representations for these animal classes. The present research used an eye-tracking procedure to determine the time course of attention to the head and whether it reflects a preexisting bias or online learning. Six- to 7-month-olds were…

  1. Particle filter-based estimation of inter-frequency phase bias for real-time GLONASS integer ambiguity resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yumiao; Ge, Maorong; Neitzel, Frank

    2015-11-01

    GLONASS could hardly reach the positioning performance of GPS, especially for fast and real-time precise positioning. One of the reasons is the phase inter-frequency bias (IFB) at the receiver end prevents its integer ambiguity resolution. A number of studies were carried out to achieve the integer ambiguity resolution for GLONASS. Based on some of the revealed IFB characteristics, for instance IFB is a linear function of the received carrier frequency and L1 and L2 have the same IFB in unit of length, most of recent methods recommend estimating the IFB rate together with ambiguities. However, since the two sets of parameters are highly correlated, as demonstrated in previous studies, observations over several hours up to 1 day are needed even with simultaneous GPS observations to obtain a reasonable solution. Obviously, these approaches cannot be applied for real-time positioning. Actually, it can be demonstrated that GLONASS ambiguity resolution should also be available even for a single epoch if the IFB rate is precisely known. In addition, the closer the IFB rate value is to its true value, the larger the fixing RATIO will be. Based on this fact, in this paper, a new approach is developed to estimate the IFB rate by means of particle filtering with the likelihood function derived from RATIO. This approach is evaluated with several sets of experimental data. For both static and kinematic cases, the results show that IFB rates could be estimated precisely just with GLONASS data of a few epochs depending on the baseline length. The time cost with a normal PC can be controlled around 1 s and can be further reduced. With the estimated IFB rate, integer ambiguity resolution is available immediately and as a consequence, the positioning accuracy is improved significantly to the level of GPS fixed solution. Thus the new approach enables real-time precise applications of GLONASS.

  2. Lead isotopic studies of lunar soils - Their bearing on the time scale of agglutinate formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Church, S. E.; Tilton, G. R.; Chen, J. H.

    1976-01-01

    Fines (smaller than 75 microns) and bulk soil were studied to analyze loss of volatile lead; losses of the order of 10% to 30% radiogenic lead during the production of agglutinates are assessed. Lead isotope data from fine-agglutinate pairs are analyzed for information on the time scale of micrometeorite bombardment, from the chords generated by the data in concordia diagrams. Resulting mean lead loss ages were compared to spallogenic gas exposure ages for all samples. Labile parentless radiogenic Pb residing preferentially on or in the fines is viewed as possibly responsible for aberrant lead loss ages. Bulk soils plot above the concordia curve (in a field of excess radiogenic Pb) for all samples with anomalous ages.

  3. Time-averaged fluxes of lead and fallout radionuclides to sediments in Florida Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, J.A.; Holmes, C.; Halley, R.; Bothner, M.; Shinn, E.; Graney, J.; Keeler, G.; TenBrink, M.; Orlandini, K.A.; Rudnick, D.

    2000-01-01

    Recent, unmixed sediments from mud banks of central Florida Bay were dated using 210Pb/226Ra, and chronologies were verified by comparing sediment lead temporal records with Pb/Ca ratios in annual layers of coral (Montastrea annularis) located on the ocean side of the Florida Keys. Dates of sediment lead peaks (1978 ?? 2) accord with prior observations of a 6 year lag between the occurrence of maximum atmospheric lead in 1972 and peak coral lead in 1978. Smaller lags of 1-2 years occur between the maximum atmospheric radionuclide fallout and peaks in sediment temporal records of 137Cs and Pu. Such lags are consequences of system time averaging (STA) in which atmospherically delivered particle-associated constituents accumulate and mix in a (sedimentary?) reservoir before transferring to permanent sediments and coral. STA model calculations, using time-dependent atmospheric inputs, produced optimized profiles in excellent accord with measured sediment 137Cs, Pu, lead, and coral lead distributions. Derived residence times of these particle tracers (16 ?? 1, 15.7 ?? 0.7, 19 ?? 3, and 16 ?? 2 years, respectively) are comparable despite differences in sampling locations, in accumulating media, and in element loading histories and geochemical properties. For a 16 year weighted mean residence time, STA generates the observed 6 year lead peak lag. Evidently, significant levels of nondegradable, particle-associated contaminants can persist in Florida Bay for many decades following elimination of external inputs. Present results, in combination with STA model analysis of previously reported radionuclide profiles, suggest that decade-scale time averaging may occur widely in recent coastal marine sedimentary environments. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Intergroup bias.

    PubMed

    Hewstone, Miles; Rubin, Mark; Willis, Hazel

    2002-01-01

    This chapter reviews the extensive literature on bias in favor of in-groups at the expense of out-groups. We focus on five issues and identify areas for future research: (a) measurement and conceptual issues (especially in-group favoritism vs. out-group derogation, and explicit vs. implicit measures of bias); (b) modern theories of bias highlighting motivational explanations (social identity, optimal distinctiveness, uncertainty reduction, social dominance, terror management); (c) key moderators of bias, especially those that exacerbate bias (identification, group size, status and power, threat, positive-negative asymmetry, personality and individual differences); (d) reduction of bias (individual vs. intergroup approaches, especially models of social categorization); and (e) the link between intergroup bias and more corrosive forms of social hostility. PMID:11752497

  5. Possible relationship between Seismic Electric Signals (SES) lead time and earthquake stress drop

    PubMed Central

    DOLOGLOU, Elizabeth

    2008-01-01

    Stress drop values for fourteen large earthquakes with MW ≥ 5.4 which occurred in Greece during the period 1983–2007 are available. All these earthquakes were preceded by Seismic Electric Signals (SES). An attempt has been made to investigate possible correlation between their stress drop values and the corresponding SES lead times. For the stress drop, we considered the Brune stress drop, ΔσB, estimated from far field body wave displacement source spectra and ΔσSB derived from the strong motion acceleration response spectra. The results show a relation may exist between Brune stress drop, ΔσB, and lead time which implies that earthquakes with higher stress drop values are preceded by SES with shorter lead time. PMID:18941291

  6. Propagation of biases in climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale: Implications for bias adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Rohrer, Marco; Furrer, Reinhard; Seibert, Jan

    2016-03-01

    Bias adjustment methods usually do not account for the origins of biases in climate models and instead perform empirical adjustments. Biases in the synoptic circulation are for instance often overlooked when postprocessing regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). Yet considering atmospheric circulation helps to establish links between the synoptic and the regional scale, and thereby provides insights into the physical processes leading to RCM biases. Here we investigate how synoptic circulation biases impact regional climate simulations and influence our ability to mitigate biases in precipitation and temperature using quantile mapping. We considered 20 GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project and characterized the dominant atmospheric flow over the Alpine domain using circulation types. We report in particular a systematic overestimation of the frequency of westerly flow in winter. We show that it contributes to the generalized overestimation of winter precipitation over Switzerland, and this wet regional bias can be reduced by improving the simulation of synoptic circulation. We also demonstrate that statistical bias adjustment relying on quantile mapping is sensitive to circulation biases, which leads to residual errors in the postprocessed time series. Overall, decomposing GCM-RCM time series using circulation types reveals connections missed by analyses relying on monthly or seasonal values. Our results underscore the necessity to better diagnose process misrepresentation in climate models to progress with bias adjustment and impact modeling.

  7. Sensitivity of a thermodynamic sea ice model with leads to time step size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ledley, T. S.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics of sea ice models, developed to study the physics of the growth and melt of ice at the ocean surface and the variations in ice extent, depend on the size of the time step. Thus, to study longer-term variations within a reasonable computer budget, a model with a scheme allowing longer time steps has been constructed. However, the results produced by the model can definitely depend on the length of the time step. The sensitivity of a model to time-step size can be reduced by appropriate approaches. The present investigation is concerned with experiments which use a formulation of a lead parameterization that can be considered as a first step toward the development of a lead parameterization suitable for a use in long-term climate studies.

  8. On biases in precise point positioning with multi-constellation and multi-frequency GNSS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Mowafy, A.; Deo, M.; Rizos, C.

    2016-03-01

    Various types of biases in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data preclude integer ambiguity fixing and degrade solution accuracy when not being corrected during precise point positioning (PPP). In this contribution, these biases are first reviewed, including satellite and receiver hardware biases, differential code biases, differential phase biases, initial fractional phase biases, inter-system receiver time biases, and system time scale offset. PPP models that take account of these biases are presented for two cases using ionosphere-free observations. The first case is when using primary signals that are used to generate precise orbits and clock corrections. The second case applies when using additional signals to the primary ones. In both cases, measurements from single and multiple constellations are addressed. It is suggested that the satellite-related code biases be handled as calibrated quantities that are obtained from multi-GNSS experiment products and the fractional phase cycle biases obtained from a network to allow for integer ambiguity fixing. Some receiver-related biases are removed using between-satellite single differencing, whereas other receiver biases such as inter-system biases are lumped with differential code and phase biases and need to be estimated. The testing results show that the treatment of biases significantly improves solution convergence in the float ambiguity PPP mode, and leads to ambiguity-fixed PPP within a few minutes with a small improvement in solution precision.

  9. Practitioner Interest in Part-time Postgraduate Education Leading to a Doctor of Pharmacy Degree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubawy, W. C.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Practitioner interest in part time postgraduate, off-campus study leading to a PharmD degree was assessed by administering a non-self-selective survey to 202 practitioners attending continuing education programs in six geographic regions in Kentucky. A verbal and written probable program description was presented prior to the survey. (Author/MLW)

  10. Use of Six Sigma Methodology to Reduce Appointment Lead-Time in Obstetrics Outpatient Department.

    PubMed

    Ortiz Barrios, Miguel A; Felizzola Jiménez, Heriberto

    2016-10-01

    This paper focuses on the issue of longer appointment lead-time in the obstetrics outpatient department of a maternal-child hospital in Colombia. Because of extended appointment lead-time, women with high-risk pregnancy could develop severe complications in their health status and put their babies at risk. This problem was detected through a project selection process explained in this article and to solve it, Six Sigma methodology has been used. First, the process was defined through a SIPOC diagram to identify its input and output variables. Second, six sigma performance indicators were calculated to establish the process baseline. Then, a fishbone diagram was used to determine the possible causes of the problem. These causes were validated with the aid of correlation analysis and other statistical tools. Later, improvement strategies were designed to reduce appointment lead-time in this department. Project results evidenced that average appointment lead-time reduced from 6,89 days to 4,08 days and the deviation standard dropped from 1,57 days to 1,24 days. In this way, the hospital will serve pregnant women faster, which represents a risk reduction of perinatal and maternal mortality. PMID:27580729

  11. A New Model for Real-Time Regional Vertical Total Electron Content and Differential Code Bias Estimation Using IGS Real-Time Service (IGS-RTS) Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelazeem, Mohamed; Çelik, Rahmi N.; El-Rabbany, Ahmed

    2016-04-01

    The international global navigation satellite system (GNSS) real-time service (IGS-RTS) products have been used extensively for real-time precise point positioning and ionosphere modeling applications. In this study, we develop a regional model for real-time vertical total electron content (RT-VTEC) and differential code bias (RT-DCB) estimation over Europe using the IGS-RTS satellite orbit and clock products. The developed model has a spatial and temporal resolution of 1°×1° and 15 minutes, respectively. GPS observations from a regional network consisting of 60 IGS and EUREF reference stations are processed in the zero-difference mode using the Bernese-5.2 software package in order to extract the geometry-free linear combination of the smoothed code observations. The spherical harmonic expansion function is used to model the VTEC, the receiver and the satellite DCBs. To validate the proposed model, the RT-VTEC values are computed and compared with the final IGS-global ionospheric map (IGS-GIM) counterparts in three successive days under high solar activity including one of an extreme geomagnetic activity. The real-time satellite DCBs are also estimated and compared with the IGS-GIM counterparts. Moreover, the real-time receiver DCB for six IGS stations are obtained and compared with the IGS-GIM counterparts. The examined stations are located in different latitudes with different receiver types. The findings reveal that the estimated RT-VTEC values show agreement with the IGS-GIM counterparts with root mean-square-errors (RMSEs) values less than 2 TEC units. In addition, RMSEs of both the satellites and receivers DCBs are less than 0.85 ns and 0.65 ns, respectively in comparison with the IGS-GIM.

  12. A gene-wavelet model for long lead time drought forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Özger, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    Drought forecasting is an essential ingredient for drought risk and sustainable water resources management. Due to increasing water demand and looming climate change, precise drought forecasting models have recently been receiving much attention. Beginning with a brief discussion of different drought forecasting models, this study presents a new hybrid gene-wavelet model, namely wavelet-linear genetic programing (WLGP), for long lead-time drought forecasting. The idea of WLGP is to detect and optimize the number of significant spectral bands of predictors in order to forecast the original predictand (drought index) directly. Using the observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation indicator (NINO 3.4 index) and Palmer's modified drought index (PMDI) as predictors and future PMDI as predictand, we proposed the WLGP model to forecast drought conditions in the State of Texas with 3, 6, and 12-month lead times. We compared the efficiency of the model with those of a classic linear genetic programing model developed in this study, a neuro-wavelet (WANN), and a fuzzy-wavelet (WFL) drought forecasting models formerly presented in the relevant literature. Our results demonstrated that the classic linear genetic programing model is unable to learn the non-linearity of drought phenomenon in the lead times longer than 3 months; however, the WLGP can be effectively used to forecast drought conditions having 3, 6, and 12-month lead times. Genetic-based sensitivity analysis among the input spectral bands showed that NINO 3.4 index has strong potential effect in drought forecasting of the study area with 6-12-month lead times.

  13. Time Series Models of Silver and Lead Contamination in San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Squire, S.; Scelfo, G. H.; Revenaugh, J.; Flegal, A. R.

    2001-12-01

    Measurements of silver and lead concentrations in San Francisco Bay waters from 1989 to 1998, along with associated water quality parameters, provide new insights into their biogeochemical cycling within the estuary. Both elements have similar biogeochemical properties and both have been relatively enriched in the estuary by anthropogenic inputs (dissolved trace metal decadal mean: Ag ~ 5.7 ng kg-1 and Pb ~ 31 ng kg-1 in the southern reach). Time series models confirm that dissolved lead concentrations have remained essentially constant over the past decade, as previously indicated by stable lead isotopic composition measurements and mass balance calculations. Conversely, the models show statistically significant decreases in dissolved silver concentrations over the same time period. This disparity is consistent with the differences in contemporary anthropogenic inputs of those metals to the estuary, where there has been a 3-fold decrease in industrial silver inputs over the last decade, but where industrial lead inputs have remained relatively high due to the persistent discharge of historic industrial lead deposits in its drainage basin.

  14. Understanding selection bias, time-lags and measurement bias in secondary data sources: Putting the Encyclopedia of Associations database in broader context.

    PubMed

    Bevan, Shaun; Baumgartner, Frank R; Johnson, Erik W; McCarthy, John D

    2013-11-01

    Secondary data gathered for purposes other than research play an important role in the social sciences. A recent data release has made an important source of publicly available data on associational interests, the Encyclopedia of Associations (EA), readily accessible to scholars (www.policyagendas.org). In this paper we introduce these new data and systematically investigate issues of lag between events and subsequent reporting in the EA, as these have important but under-appreciated effects on time-series statistical models. We further analyze the accuracy and coverage of the database in numerous ways. Our study serves as a guide to potential users of this database, but we also reflect upon a number of issues that should concern all researchers who use secondary data such as newspaper records, IRS reports and FBI Uniform Crime Reports. PMID:24090865

  15. Sympathetic bias.

    PubMed

    Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

    2008-06-01

    We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation. PMID:17925315

  16. River basin flood potential inferred using GRACE gravity observations at several months lead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reager, J. T.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2014-08-01

    The wetness of a watershed determines its response to precipitation, leading to variability in flood generation. The importance of total water storage--which includes snow, surface water, soil moisture and groundwater--for the predisposition of a region to flooding is less clear, in part because such comprehensive observations are rarely available. Here we demonstrate that basin-scale estimates of water storage derived from satellite observations of time-variable gravity can be used to characterize regional flood potential and may ultimately result in longer lead times in flood warnings. We use a case study of the catastrophic 2011 Missouri River floods to establish a relationship between river discharge, as measured by gauge stations, and basin-wide water storage, as measured remotely by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Applying a time-lagged autoregressive model of river discharge, we show that the inclusion of GRACE-based total water storage information allows us to assess the predisposition of a river basin to flooding as much as 5-11 months in advance. Additional case studies of flood events in the Columbia River and Indus River basins further illustrate that longer lead-time flood prediction requires accurate information on the complete hydrologic state of a river basin.

  17. Utilization of bark pockets as time capsules of atmospheric-lead pollution in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Åberg, Gøran; Abrahamsen, Gunnar; Steinnes, Eiliv; Hjelmseth, Harry

    The outer bark being enveloped by and grown into the tree trunk (bark pocket), acts as a passive biomonitor which readily accumulates pollution on its surface. Analysed with stable lead isotopes, these environmental historical archives are very strong candidates for unwinding pollution history. The Røros sulphide ore district, central Norway, has a well-documented mining activity which started in 1647 and the quarrying and smelting in Røros was easily monitored from the middle of the 18th century until the smelting stopped in 1977. Thereafter other sources, like the increase in use of leaded gasoline and further on its outphasing, can be followed. In southern Norway analyses of bark pockets show a good correlation with Pb isotope data from peat cores and tree rings. This region has not been dominated by a single source for many centuries. From the 17th century until about 1925 coal firing and ore smelting in England and on the continent were the dominating sources of pollution in southwestern Norway. From about 1925 and until about 1950 other sources like waste burning contributed, and from about 1950 onwards the pollution has been a mixture of mainly leaded gasoline, coal and coke firing, and incineration of waste. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate the historical changes of environmental pollution in Norway during the last several hundred years up to the present time using tree bark pockets as pollution time capsules. Analyses of stable lead isotopes makes it possible to trace and identify lead from different sources of pollution and atmospherically transported lead deposited in central and southern Norway. Of special interest is the relationship between the industrialization of Europe and the global environmental pollution. Understanding this evolution is of considerable value for evaluating the present day situation.

  18. Electrophysiological evidence of the time course of attentional bias in non-patients reporting symptoms of depression with and without co-occurring anxiety

    PubMed Central

    Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Silton, Rebecca L.; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Crocker, Laura D.; Edgar, J. Christopher; Mimnaugh, Katherine J.; Miller, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Anxiety is characterized by attentional biases to threat, but findings are inconsistent for depression. To address this inconsistency, the present study systematically assessed the role of co-occurring anxiety in attentional bias in depression. In addition, the role of emotional valence, arousal, and gender was explored. Ninety-two non-patients completed the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (Meyer et al., 1990; Molina and Borkovec, 1994) and portions of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire (Watson et al., 1995a,1995b). Individuals reporting high levels of depression and low levels of anxiety (depression only), high levels of depression and anxiety (combined), or low levels of both (control) completed an emotion-word Stroop task during event-related brain potential recording. Pleasant and unpleasant words were matched on emotional arousal level. An attentional bias was not evident in the depression-only group. Women in the combined group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, and the combined group as a whole had larger right-lateralized P300 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early and later attentional bias that is specific to unpleasant valence in the combined group. Men in the control group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early attentional bias that is specific to pleasant valence. The present study indicates that the nature and time course of attention prompted by emotional valence and not arousal differentiates depression with and without anxiety, with some evidence of gender moderating early effects. Overall, results suggest that co-occurring anxiety is more important than previously acknowledged in demonstrating evidence of attentional biases in depression. PMID:24782804

  19. Verification of short lead time forecast models: applied to Kp and Dst forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus

    2016-04-01

    In the ongoing EU/H2020 project PROGRESS models that predicts Kp, Dst, and AE from L1 solar wind data will be used as inputs to radiation belt models. The possible lead times from L1 measurements are shorter (10s of minutes to hours) than the typical duration of the physical phenomena that should be forecast. Under these circumstances several metrics fail to single out trivial cases, such as persistence. In this work we explore metrics and approaches for short lead time forecasts. We apply these to current Kp and Dst forecast models. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637302.

  20. A seller-buyer supply chain model with exponential distribution lead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahri, Mehrab; Tarokh, Mohammad Jafar

    2012-08-01

    Supply chain is an accepted way of remaining in the competition in today's rapidly changing market. This paper presents a coordinated seller-buyer supply chain model in two stages, which is called Joint Economic Lot Sizing (JELS) in literature. The delivery activities in the supply chain consist of a single raw material. We assume that the delivery lead time is stochastic and follows an exponential distribution. Also, the shortage during the lead time is permitted and completely back-ordered for the buyer. With these assumptions, the annual cost function of JELS is minimized. At the end, a numerical example is presented to show that the integrated approach considerably improves the costs in comparison with the independent decisions by seller and buyer.

  1. Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

    PubMed

    McNair, Douglas S

    2015-01-01

    In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks. PMID:26340239

  2. Analog filtering methods improve leading edge timing performance of multiplexed SiPMs.

    PubMed

    Bieniosek, M F; Cates, J W; Grant, A M; Levin, C S

    2016-08-21

    Multiplexing many SiPMs to a single readout channel is an attractive option to reduce the readout complexity of high performance time of flight (TOF) PET systems. However, the additional dark counts and shaping from each SiPM cause significant baseline fluctuations in the output waveform, degrading timing measurements using a leading edge threshold. This work proposes the use of a simple analog filtering network to reduce the baseline fluctuations in highly multiplexed SiPM readouts. With 16 SiPMs multiplexed, the FWHM coincident timing resolution for single [Formula: see text] mm LYSO crystals was improved from 401  ±  4 ps without filtering to 248  ±  5 ps with filtering. With 4 SiPMs multiplexed, using an array of [Formula: see text] mm LFS crystals the mean time resolution was improved from 436  ±  6 ps to 249  ±  2 ps. Position information was acquired with a novel binary positioning network. All experiments were performed at room temperature with no active temperature regulation. These results show a promising technique for the construction of high performance multiplexed TOF PET readout systems using analog leading edge timing pickoff. PMID:27484131

  3. Analog filtering methods improve leading edge timing performance of multiplexed SiPMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bieniosek, M. F.; Cates, J. W.; Grant, A. M.; Levin, C. S.

    2016-08-01

    Multiplexing many SiPMs to a single readout channel is an attractive option to reduce the readout complexity of high performance time of flight (TOF) PET systems. However, the additional dark counts and shaping from each SiPM cause significant baseline fluctuations in the output waveform, degrading timing measurements using a leading edge threshold. This work proposes the use of a simple analog filtering network to reduce the baseline fluctuations in highly multiplexed SiPM readouts. With 16 SiPMs multiplexed, the FWHM coincident timing resolution for single 3~\\text{mm}× 3~\\text{mm}× 20 mm LYSO crystals was improved from 401  ±  4 ps without filtering to 248  ±  5 ps with filtering. With 4 SiPMs multiplexed, using an array of 3~\\text{mm}× 3~\\text{mm}× 20 mm LFS crystals the mean time resolution was improved from 436  ±  6 ps to 249  ±  2 ps. Position information was acquired with a novel binary positioning network. All experiments were performed at room temperature with no active temperature regulation. These results show a promising technique for the construction of high performance multiplexed TOF PET readout systems using analog leading edge timing pickoff.

  4. Reversing Stimulus Timing in Visual Conditioning Leads to Memories with Opposite Valence in Drosophila

    PubMed Central

    Vogt, Katrin; Yarali, Ayse; Tanimoto, Hiromu

    2015-01-01

    Animals need to associate different environmental stimuli with each other regardless of whether they temporally overlap or not. Drosophila melanogaster displays olfactory trace conditioning, where an odor is followed by electric shock reinforcement after a temporal gap, leading to conditioned odor avoidance. Reversing the stimulus timing in olfactory conditioning results in the reversal of memory valence such that an odor that follows shock is later on approached (i.e. relief conditioning). Here, we explored the effects of stimulus timing on memory in another sensory modality, using a visual conditioning paradigm. We found that flies form visual memories of opposite valence depending on stimulus timing and can associate a visual stimulus with reinforcement despite being presented with a temporal gap. These results suggest that associative memories with non-overlapping stimuli and the effect of stimulus timing on memory valence are shared across sensory modalities. PMID:26430885

  5. Reversing Stimulus Timing in Visual Conditioning Leads to Memories with Opposite Valence in Drosophila.

    PubMed

    Vogt, Katrin; Yarali, Ayse; Tanimoto, Hiromu

    2015-01-01

    Animals need to associate different environmental stimuli with each other regardless of whether they temporally overlap or not. Drosophila melanogaster displays olfactory trace conditioning, where an odor is followed by electric shock reinforcement after a temporal gap, leading to conditioned odor avoidance. Reversing the stimulus timing in olfactory conditioning results in the reversal of memory valence such that an odor that follows shock is later on approached (i.e. relief conditioning). Here, we explored the effects of stimulus timing on memory in another sensory modality, using a visual conditioning paradigm. We found that flies form visual memories of opposite valence depending on stimulus timing and can associate a visual stimulus with reinforcement despite being presented with a temporal gap. These results suggest that associative memories with non-overlapping stimuli and the effect of stimulus timing on memory valence are shared across sensory modalities. PMID:26430885

  6. Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

    PubMed

    Petzoldt, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. PMID:27428866

  7. Directional selection for flowering time leads to adaptive evolution in Raphanus raphanistrum (Wild radish).

    PubMed

    Ashworth, Michael B; Walsh, Michael J; Flower, Ken C; Vila-Aiub, Martin M; Powles, Stephen B

    2016-04-01

    Herbicides have been the primary tool for controlling large populations of yield depleting weeds from agro-ecosystems, resulting in the evolution of widespread herbicide resistance. In response, nonherbicidal techniques have been developed which intercept weed seeds at harvest before they enter the soil seed bank. However, the efficiency of these techniques allows an intense selection for any trait that enables weeds to evade collection, with early-flowering ecotypes considered likely to result in early seed shedding. Using a field-collected wild radish population, five recurrent generations were selected for early maturity and three generations for late maturity. Phenology associated with flowering time and growth traits were measured. Our results demonstrate the adaptive capacity of wild radish to halve its time to flowering following five generations of early-flowering selection. Early-maturing phenotypes had reduced height and biomass at maturity, leading to less competitive, more prostrate growth forms. Following three generations of late-flowering selection, wild radish doubled its time to flowering time leading to increased biomass and flowering height at maturity. This study demonstrates the potential for the rapid evolution in growth traits in response to highly effective seed collection techniques that imposed a selection on weed populations within agro-ecosystems at harvest. PMID:27099626

  8. ALERT-ES EEWS in Southwest Iberia: feasibility and lead-time estimations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazos, Antonio; Colom, Yolanda; Lozano, Lucía; Romeu, Nuria; Matín Davila, José; Carranza, Marta; Zollo, Aldo; Buforn, Elisa; Goula, Xavier; Carrilho, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) should provide quick earthquake information and predict ground motion prior to the destructive S-waves arrive. One objective of the Spanish ALERT-ES project (CGL2010-19803-C03) is to study the feasibility of an EEWS for the SW of Iberian Peninsula, selecting two test sites (the S. Vicente cape area and the Gulf of Cádiz). These regions are characterized by the occurrence of large and damaging earthquakes such as the 1755 Lisbon (Imax=X) or 1969 S. Vicente Cape (Ms=8,1) shocks. In this work, we have used three different software packages (Earthworm, SeiscomP3 and PRESTo) to compare the efficiency of their different modules (picking, binder and location modules) in order to be used as an EEWS (new modules for Earthworms and SeiscomP3 are being developed, mainly a quick magnitude estimation module based in the analysis of the first few seconds of the the P-wave arrival). This pilot experience was carried out on four previously selected events (two in each test site). We analyse the origin time and location error using several software and seismic net configurations. A study about the blind zone and the available lead-time to selected targets (Huelva, Seville, Cádiz in Spain and Faro and Portimao in Portugal) was also performed. The results, using the existing seismic BB stations in the area, shown a blind zone in SW Portugal for earthquakes in S. Vicente and a blind zone in the Huelva and Cádiz (SW Spain) region for earthquakes in the Gulf of Cádiz. A 6 station binder provided the best compromise between the location error and available lead- time to targets, mainly due to the bad azimuthal coverage. For S. Vicente earthquakes, the lead-time time is 30/40 seconds for Huelva, 50/60 seconds for Cádiz, 60/70 seconds for Seville, about 10 seconds for Faro and Portimao follows inside the blind zone. For the Gulf of Cádiz earthquakes, Huelva, Cádiz and Faro are inside the blind zone, and lead-time is around 10/15 seconds for

  9. Real-time Assay of Toxic Lead in In Vivo Living Plant Tissue

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Nack Joo; Youn, Minsang; Kim, Yongwook; Sung, Yeolmin; Kim, Dohoon

    2013-01-01

    A method of detecting lead was developed using square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) with DNA-carbon nanotube paste electrode (CNTPE). The results indicated a sensitive oxidation peak current of lead on the DNA-CNTPE. The curves were obtained within a concentration range of 50 ngL−1-20 mgL−1 with preconcentration time of 100, 200, and 400 sec at the concentration of mgL−1, μgL−1, and ngL−1, respectively. The observed relative standard deviation was 0.101% (n = 12) in the lead concentration of 30.0 μgL−1 under optimum conditions. The low detection limit (S/N) was pegged at 8 ngL−1 (2.6 × 10−8 M). Results showed that the developed method can be used in real-time assay in vivo without requiring any pretreatment and pharmaceutical samples, and food samples, as well as other materials requiring water source contamination analyses. PMID:24578800

  10. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission.

  11. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y Y

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission. PMID:26818710

  12. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission. PMID:26818710

  13. RNA Amplification Protocol Leads to Biased Polymerase Chain Reaction Results Especially for Low-Copy Transcripts of Human Bone Marrow-Derived Stromal Cells

    PubMed Central

    Coenen, Carolin; Liedtke, Stefanie; Kogler, Gesine

    2015-01-01

    The amplification of RNA is becoming increasingly important, as often only limited amounts of cells are available for gene expression analysis. In this study, the gene expression profile of the 39 human homeobox (HOX) genes was analyzed in bone marrow-derived multipotent stromal cells (BM-MSCs) by reverse transcription (RT-) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). For further unlimited gene expression analysis, Whole Transcriptome Amplification (WTA) was used to amplify RNA from human BM-MSCs. However, WTA led to biased RT- and qPCR results, and even non-detectability of HOX transcripts compared to non-amplified BM-MSC samples which instead revealed transcription. It is important to note that the same RNA of the respective human BM-MSC line was used for normal cDNA synthesis by standard reverse transcription (non-amplified RT samples) and for cDNA synthesis by WTA (amplified WTA samples). On this account, the different RT- and qPCR results were unexpected applying WTA. The significantly reduced detection of HOX transcripts after WTA has been demonstrated for numerous BM-MSC lines (n = 26) by RT-PCR analysis. Furthermore, undetectable HOX transcripts meaning HOX transcripts of human BM-MSCs that were detected after normal cDNA synthesis, but were no longer detectable after WTA, were consistently observed by qPCR analysis. Finally, qPCR experiments revealed a possible explanation for the differences between amplified and non-amplified BM-MSC samples: an inverse correlation between the biased qPCR results and the low expression level of the respective HOX gene. The PCR analysis of high-copy transcripts like GAPDH or RPL13A revealed unchanged qPCR results after WTA compared to corresponding non-amplified BM-MSC samples. In contrast, WTA led to biased qPCR results for medium-copy HOX transcripts, and even non-detectability of low-copy HOX transcripts of human BM-MSCs resulting in false negative RT- and qPCR data applying WTA. PMID:26485654

  14. Hindsight Bias.

    PubMed

    Roese, Neal J; Vohs, Kathleen D

    2012-09-01

    Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias. PMID:26168501

  15. A new order splitting model with stochastic lead times for deterioration items

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazvar, Zeinab; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad Reza; Baboli, Armand

    2014-09-01

    In unreliable supply environments, the strategy of pooling lead time risks by splitting replenishment orders among multiple suppliers simultaneously is an attractive sourcing policy that has captured the attention of academic researchers and corporate managers alike. While various assumptions are considered in the models developed, researchers tend to overlook an important inventory category in order splitting models: deteriorating items. In this paper, we study an order splitting policy for a retailer that sells a deteriorating product. The inventory system is modelled as a continuous review system (s, Q) under stochastic lead time. Demand rate per unit time is assumed to be constant over an infinite planning horizon and shortages are backordered completely. We develop two inventory models. In the first model, it is assumed that all the requirements are supplied by only one source, whereas in the second, two suppliers are available. We use sensitivity analysis to determine the situations in which each sourcing policy is the most economic. We then study a real case from the European pharmaceutical industry to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed models. Finally, more promising directions are suggested for future research.

  16. Real-time estimation of lead-acid battery parameters: A dynamic data-driven approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yue; Shen, Zheng; Ray, Asok; Rahn, Christopher D.

    2014-12-01

    This short paper presents a recently reported dynamic data-driven method, Symbolic Dynamic Filtering (SDF), for real-time estimation of the state-of-health (SOH) and state-of-charge (SOC) in lead-acid batteries, as an alternative to model-based analysis techniques. In particular, SOC estimation relies on a k-NN regression algorithm while SOH estimation is obtained from the divergence between extracted features. The results show that the proposed data-driven method successfully distinguishes battery voltage responses under different SOC and SOH situations.

  17. Lagrangian bias in the local bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Frusciante, Noemi; Sheth, Ravi K. E-mail: sheth@ictp.it

    2012-11-01

    It is often assumed that the halo-patch fluctuation field can be written as a Taylor series in the initial Lagrangian dark matter density fluctuation field. We show that if this Lagrangian bias is local, and the initial conditions are Gaussian, then the two-point cross-correlation between halos and mass should be linearly proportional to the mass-mass auto-correlation function. This statement is exact and valid on all scales; there are no higher order contributions, e.g., from terms proportional to products or convolutions of two-point functions, which one might have thought would appear upon truncating the Taylor series of the halo bias function. In addition, the auto-correlation function of locally biased tracers can be written as a Taylor series in the auto-correlation function of the mass; there are no terms involving, e.g., derivatives or convolutions. Moreover, although the leading order coefficient, the linear bias factor of the auto-correlation function is just the square of that for the cross-correlation, it is the same as that obtained from expanding the mean number of halos as a function of the local density only in the large-scale limit. In principle, these relations allow simple tests of whether or not halo bias is indeed local in Lagrangian space. We discuss why things are more complicated in practice. We also discuss our results in light of recent work on the renormalizability of halo bias, demonstrating that it is better to renormalize than not. We use the Lognormal model to illustrate many of our findings.

  18. Evaluating solutions to sponsorship bias.

    PubMed

    Doucet, M; Sismondo, S

    2008-08-01

    More than 40 primary studies, and three recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses, have shown a clear association between pharmaceutical industry funding of clinical trials and pro-industry results. Industry sponsorship biases published scientific research in favour of the sponsors, a result of the strong interest commercial sponsors have in obtaining favourable results. Three proposed remedies to this problem are widely agreed upon among those concerned with the level of sponsorship bias: financial disclosure, reporting standards and trial registries. This paper argues that all of these remedies either fail to address the mechanisms by which pharmaceutical companies' sponsorship leads to biased results-design bias, multiple trials with predictable outcomes, fraud, rhetorical effects and publication bias-or else only inadequately address those mechanisms. As a result, the policies normally proposed for dealing with sponsorship bias are unable to eliminate it. Only completely separating public clinical research from pharmaceutical industry funding can eliminate sponsorship bias. PMID:18667655

  19. Hybrid modeling of lead-acid batteries in frequency and time domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thele, M.; Buller, S.; Sauer, D. U.; De Doncker, R. W.; Karden, E.

    This paper presents an improved impedance-based non-linear simulation model for lead-acid batteries. The parameterization of impedance-based models is difficult for operation profiles with high Ah throughput in short times. Such conditions result in non-steady-state conditions and do not allow precise measurements of impedance parameters. Therefore, the model has been extended by an electrolyte transport model which describes the generation and the transport of sulfuric acid inside the porous electrodes. This expands the model validity as higher Ah throughputs can be simulated now. A description of the Matlab/Simulink implementation and its parameterization in the time domain is given. Furthermore, the advantages and the limits of the improved model are discussed. The model allows for precise modeling of automotive batteries, both in conventional applications and in vehicles with electrically assisted propulsion. It is therefore an important tool for the design of automotive power nets.

  20. Real-Time Observation of Organic Cation Reorientation in Methylammonium Lead Iodide Perovskites.

    PubMed

    Bakulin, Artem A; Selig, Oleg; Bakker, Huib J; Rezus, Yves L A; Müller, Christian; Glaser, Tobias; Lovrincic, Robert; Sun, Zhenhua; Chen, Zhuoying; Walsh, Aron; Frost, Jarvist M; Jansen, Thomas L C

    2015-09-17

    The introduction of a mobile and polarized organic moiety as a cation in 3D lead-iodide perovskites brings fascinating optoelectronic properties to these materials. The extent and the time scales of the orientational mobility of the organic cation and the molecular mechanism behind its motion remain unclear, with different experimental and computational approaches providing very different qualitative and quantitative description of the molecular dynamics. Here we use ultrafast 2D vibrational spectroscopy of methylammonium (MA) lead iodide to directly resolve the rotation of the organic cations within the MAPbI3 lattice. Our results reveal two characteristic time constants of motion. Using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we identify these as a fast (∼300 fs) "wobbling-in-a-cone" motion around the crystal axis and a relatively slow (∼3 ps) jump-like reorientation of the molecular dipole with respect to the iodide lattice. The observed dynamics are essential for understanding the electronic properties of perovskite materials. PMID:26722739

  1. How NOAA/DSCOVR Will Perform during Extreme Space Weather and Why Lead Time Exceeds Expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biesecker, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA/DSCOVR satellite is expected to launch in January, 2015 and replace the NASA/ACE satellite as the L1 Sentinel in early Summer, 2015. Having relied on ACE to provide critical warnings of geomagnetic storms since 1998, it is important for the space weather community to understand how DSCOVR will perform relative to ACE in real-time operations. The WIND/SWE instrument is sufficiently similar to the DSCOVR Faraday Cup that it can be used as a proxy for DSCOVR, with some caveats. We compare the ACE/SWEPAM and WIND/SWE observations for all geomagnetic storm events meeting the criteria of severe or extreme. We also examine time periods where ACE data were compromised by solar energetic particles. We find that DSCOVR will provide a more robust data stream than was provided by ACE during solar cycle 23. We will briefly address the magnetometer, supra-thermal particle measurements, and relativistic proton measurements provided by ACE, of which only the magnetometer is retained on DSCOVR. We also demonstrate that lead time for geomagnetic storm notifications to customers far exceeds the L1 to Earth delay time.

  2. Clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphic timing in wood frogs

    PubMed Central

    Lambert, Max R.

    2015-01-01

    In amphibians, abnormal metamorph sex ratios and sexual development have almost exclusively been considered in response to synthetic compounds like pesticides or pharmaceuticals. However, endocrine-active plant chemicals (i.e. phytoestrogens) are commonly found in agricultural and urban waterways hosting frog populations with deviant sexual development. Yet the effects of these compounds on amphibian development remain predominantly unexplored. Legumes, like clover, are common in agricultural fields and urban yards and exude phytoestrogen mixtures from their roots. These root exudates serve important ecological functions and may also be a source of phytoestrogens in waterways. I show that clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphosis relative to females in low and intermediate doses of root exudate. My results indicate that root exudates are a potential source of contaminants impacting vertebrate development and that humans may be cultivating sexual abnormalities in wildlife by actively managing certain plant species. PMID:27019728

  3. Clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphic timing in wood frogs.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Max R

    2015-12-01

    In amphibians, abnormal metamorph sex ratios and sexual development have almost exclusively been considered in response to synthetic compounds like pesticides or pharmaceuticals. However, endocrine-active plant chemicals (i.e. phytoestrogens) are commonly found in agricultural and urban waterways hosting frog populations with deviant sexual development. Yet the effects of these compounds on amphibian development remain predominantly unexplored. Legumes, like clover, are common in agricultural fields and urban yards and exude phytoestrogen mixtures from their roots. These root exudates serve important ecological functions and may also be a source of phytoestrogens in waterways. I show that clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphosis relative to females in low and intermediate doses of root exudate. My results indicate that root exudates are a potential source of contaminants impacting vertebrate development and that humans may be cultivating sexual abnormalities in wildlife by actively managing certain plant species. PMID:27019728

  4. Introduction to Unconscious Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmelz, Joan T.

    2010-05-01

    We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

  5. Long lead-time flood forecasting using data-driven modeling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, N.; He, J.; Srivastav, R. K.

    2014-12-01

    In spite of numerous structure measures being taken for floods, accurate flood forecasting is essential to condense the damages in hazardous areas considerably. The need of producing more accurate flow forecasts motivates the researchers to develop advanced innovative methods. In this study, it is proposed to develop a hybrid neural network model to exploit the strengths of artificial neural networks (ANNs). The proposed model has two components: i.) Dual - ANN model developed using river flows; and ii.) Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model trained on meteorological data (Rainfall and Snow on ground). Potential model inputs that best represent the process of river basin were selected in stepwise manner by identifying input-output relationship using a linear approach, Partial Correlation Input Selection (PCIS) combined with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) technique. The presented hybrid model was compared with three conventional methods: i) Feed-forward artificial neural network (FF-ANN) using daily river flows; ii) FF-ANN applied on decomposed river flows (low flow, rising limb and falling limb of hydrograph); and iii) Recursive method for daily river flows with lead-time of 7 days. The applicability of the presented model is illustrated through daily river flow data of Bow River, Canada. Data from 1912 to 1976 were used to train the models while data from 1977 to 2006 were used to validate the models. The results of the study indicate that the proposed model is robust enough to capture the non-linear nature of hydrograph and proves to be highly promising to forecast peak flows (extreme values) well in advance (higher lead time).

  6. Time scale separation leads to position-dependent diffusion along a slow coordinate

    PubMed Central

    Berezhkovskii, Alexander; Szabo, Attila

    2011-01-01

    When there is a separation of time scales, an effective description of the dynamics of the slow variables can be obtained by adiabatic elimination of fast ones. For example, for anisotropic Langevin dynamics in two dimensions, the conventional procedure leads to a Langevin equation for the slow coordinate that involves the potential of the mean force. The friction constant along this coordinate remains unchanged. Here, we show that a more accurate, but still Markovian, description of the slow dynamics can be obtained by using position-dependent friction that is related to the time integral of the autocorrelation function of the difference between the actual force and the mean force by a Kirkwood-like formula. The result is generalized to many dimensions, where the slow or reaction coordinate is an arbitrary function of the Cartesian coordinates. When the fast variables are effectively one-dimensional, the additional friction along the slow coordinate can be expressed in closed form for an arbitrary potential. For a cylindrically symmetric channel of varying cross section with winding centerline, our analytical expression immediately yields the multidimensional version of the Zwanzig-Bradley formula for the position-dependent diffusion coefficient. PMID:21861557

  7. BOOK REVIEW: Great Physicists - The Life and Times of Leading Physicists from Galileo to Hawking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, William H.

    2002-11-01

    The author, a former American chemistry professor, has organized his book into nine parts with 29 chapters, covering, in a fairly historical sequence and systemtic conceptual progression, all fundamentals of today's physics: i.e., mechanics, thermodynamics, electromagnetism, statistical mechanics, relativity, quantum mechanics, nuclear physics, particle physics, astronomy-astrophysics-cosmology. Obviously, the 20th century (when about 90% of professional physicists of all time worked) assumes with five topics the dominant role in this enterprise. For each topic, a small number (ranging from one to eight) of leading personalities is selected and the biographies of these 29 physicists, including two women (Marie Curie and Lise Meitner), are presented in some detail together with their achievements in the particular topic. Important relevant contributions of other scholars to each topic are also discussed. In addition, Cropper provides each of the topics with a short 'historical synopsis' justifying his selection of key persons. One may argue that concentrating on leading physicists constitutes an old-fashioned approach to displaying the history and contents of fundamental topics in physics. However, the mixture of biographies and explanation of leading contributions given here will certainly serve for a larger public, not just professional physicists and scientists, as a guide through the exciting development of physical ideas and discoveries. In general, the presentation of the material is quite satisfactory (with only few slips, e.g., in the Meitner story, where the author follows too closely a new biography) and gives the essence of the great advances in physics since the 15th century. One notices perhaps the limitation of the author in cases where no biography in English is available - this would also explain the omission of some of the main contributors to atomic and particle physics, such as Arnold Sommerfeld and Hideki Yukawa, or that French or Russian readers

  8. Inattentional Deafness: Visual Load Leads to Time-Specific Suppression of Auditory Evoked Responses

    PubMed Central

    Molloy, Katharine; Griffiths, Timothy D.; Lavie, Nilli

    2015-01-01

    Due to capacity limits on perception, conditions of high perceptual load lead to reduced processing of unattended stimuli (Lavie et al., 2014). Accumulating work demonstrates the effects of visual perceptual load on visual cortex responses, but the effects on auditory processing remain poorly understood. Here we establish the neural mechanisms underlying “inattentional deafness”—the failure to perceive auditory stimuli under high visual perceptual load. Participants performed a visual search task of low (target dissimilar to nontarget items) or high (target similar to nontarget items) load. On a random subset (50%) of trials, irrelevant tones were presented concurrently with the visual stimuli. Brain activity was recorded with magnetoencephalography, and time-locked responses to the visual search array and to the incidental presence of unattended tones were assessed. High, compared to low, perceptual load led to increased early visual evoked responses (within 100 ms from onset). This was accompanied by reduced early (∼100 ms from tone onset) auditory evoked activity in superior temporal sulcus and posterior middle temporal gyrus. A later suppression of the P3 “awareness” response to the tones was also observed under high load. A behavioral experiment revealed reduced tone detection sensitivity under high visual load, indicating that the reduction in neural responses was indeed associated with reduced awareness of the sounds. These findings support a neural account of shared audiovisual resources, which, when depleted under load, leads to failures of sensory perception and awareness. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The present work clarifies the neural underpinning of inattentional deafness under high visual load. The findings of near-simultaneous load effects on both visual and auditory evoked responses suggest shared audiovisual processing capacity. Temporary depletion of shared capacity in perceptually demanding visual tasks leads to a momentary reduction in

  9. Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

    1997-01-01

    Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

  10. Time trend and determinants of blood lead levels in a Swiss population over a transition period (1984-1993) from leaded to unleaded gasoline use

    SciTech Connect

    Wietlisbach, V.; Rickenbach, M.; Berode, M.

    1995-02-01

    This study analyzes the trend and determinants of blood lead levels in a Swiss region (population 770,000) over the 10-year period following the introduction of unleaded gasoline in 1985. The consumption of unleaded fuel increased rapidly, accounting in 1988 for 36% and in 1992 for 65% of all gasoline sales. Blood lead levels were measured in three representative samples (n = 1700) of the adult population within the framework of a health examination survey carried out in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1992/1993. The geometric mean blood lead levels were, respectively, 0.59, 0.42, and 0.33 {mu}mole/liter in men, 0.41, 0.29, and 0.25 {mu}mole/liter in women. Similar trends have been observed across all age groups, occupational classes, and categories across all age groups, occupational classes, and categories based on smoking, drinking, and dietary habits. The overexposure of city residents, in comparison to village residents, fades out over the observation period. These findings suggest that the changeover from leaded to unleaded gasoline has been the major cause of the blood lead decline. Wine drinking, cigarette smoking, and age appear to be significant determinants of blood lead for both sexes in all three surveys. In contrast, the association is inverse for milk consumption. The multivariate regression analysis shows that wine drinking remains the most important predictor of blood lead, whereas the influence of age increases with time and overcomes the effect of smoking in the third survey. 32 refs., 21 refs., 6 tabs.

  11. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Wennberg, Maria . E-mail: miawennberg@skehus19.ac; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-03-15

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important.

  12. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2014-05-01

    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  13. Laterality and flight: concurrent tests of side-bias and optimality in flying tree swallows.

    PubMed

    Mandel, James T; Ratcliffe, John M; Cerasale, David J; Winkler, David W

    2008-01-01

    Behavioural side-bias occurs in many vertebrates, including birds as a result of hemispheric specialization and can be advantageous by improving response times to sudden stimuli and efficiency in multi-tasking. However, behavioural side-bias can lead to morphological asymmetries resulting in reduced performance for specific activities. For flying animals, wing asymmetry is particularly costly and it is unclear if behavioural side-biases will be expressed in flight; the benefits of quick response time afforded by side-biases must be balanced against the costs of less efficient flight due to the morphological asymmetry side-biases may incur. Thus, competing constraints could lead to context-dependent expression or suppression of side-bias in flight. In repeated flight trials through an outdoor tunnel with obstacles, tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) preferred larger openings, but we did not detect either individual or population-level side-biases. Thus, while observed behavioural side-biases during substrate-foraging and copulation are common in birds, we did not see such side-bias expressed in obstacle avoidance behaviour in flight. This finding highlights the importance of behavioural context for investigations of side-bias and hemispheric laterality and suggests both proximate and ultimate trade-offs between species-specific cognitive ecology and flight biomechanics. PMID:18335028

  14. Analyses of evolutionary dynamics in viruses are hindered by a time-dependent bias in rate estimates

    PubMed Central

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Holmes, Edward C.; Ho, Simon Y. W.

    2014-01-01

    Time-scales of viral evolution and emergence have been studied widely, but are often poorly understood. Molecular analyses of viral evolutionary time-scales generally rely on estimates of rates of nucleotide substitution, which vary by several orders of magnitude depending on the timeframe of measurement. We analysed data from all major groups of viruses and found a strong negative relationship between estimates of nucleotide substitution rate and evolutionary timescale. Strikingly, this relationship was upheld both within and among diverse groups of viruses. A detailed case study of primate lentiviruses revealed that the combined effects of sequence saturation and purifying selection can explain this time-dependent pattern of rate variation. Therefore, our analyses show that studies of evolutionary time-scales in viruses require a reconsideration of substitution rates as a dynamic, rather than as a static, feature of molecular evolution. Improved modelling of viral evolutionary rates has the potential to change our understanding of virus origins. PMID:24850916

  15. Trapped-electron effects on time-independent negative-bias states of a collisionless single-emitter plasma device: Theory and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Crystal, T.L.; Gray, P.C.; Lawson, W.S.; Birdsall, C.K.; Kuhn, S. )

    1991-01-01

    Time-average values from particle simulations of a collisionless, single-emitter plasma device modeling single-ended {ital Q} machines or thermionic converters with a negatively biased collector are presented. These results quantitatively confirm the predictions of collisionless, kinetic plane-diode theory for spatial potential profiles that decrease monotonically. However, simulations of negative-bias potential profiles with a single internal maximum differ significantly from previous theoretical predictions which assumed electron phase space to have either (i) no trapped electrons or (ii) trapped electrons isothermal with the passing electrons. A more general class of trapped-electron model distributions is introduced from which new equilibrium potential values can be recovered that closely match the simulations. These simulations clearly demonstrate the sensitive role that trapped electrons play in shaping the potential profiles of the equilibrium (or slowly evolving) states of the simulated systems. The trapped-electron distributions in these simulations are themselves shown to be controlled critically by fluctuations whose levels are varied by the choice of particle injection scheme. These effects, although found and discussed here in the context of a particular model, are believed to be important in many bounded plasma systems where electrons can be trapped in potential wells.

  16. Bias in Dynamic Monte Carlo Alpha Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Sweezy, Jeremy Ed; Nolen, Steven Douglas; Adams, Terry R.; Trahan, Travis John

    2015-02-06

    A 1/N bias in the estimate of the neutron time-constant (commonly denoted as α) has been seen in dynamic neutronic calculations performed with MCATK. In this paper we show that the bias is most likely caused by taking the logarithm of a stochastic quantity. We also investigate the known bias due to the particle population control method used in MCATK. We conclude that this bias due to the particle population control method is negligible compared to other sources of bias.

  17. The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: effect of sample storage time

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franson, J.C.; Hohman, W.L.; Moore, J.L.; Smith, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback ducks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of ≥0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.

  18. Reducing bias in survival under nonrandom temporary emigration.

    PubMed

    Peñaloza, Claudia L; Kendall, William L; Langtimm, Catherine A

    2014-07-01

    Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard survival parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration, unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates, and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified; nonetheless, there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable nonrandom temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data were effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naive constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, although still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

  19. Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

    2014-01-01

    Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

  20. Biased Allostery.

    PubMed

    Edelstein, Stuart J; Changeux, Jean-Pierre

    2016-09-01

    G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) constitute a large group of integral membrane proteins that transduce extracellular signals from a wide range of agonists into targeted intracellular responses. Although the responses can vary depending on the category of G-proteins activated by a particular receptor, responses were also found to be triggered by interactions of the receptor with β-arrestins. It was subsequently discovered that for the same receptor molecule (e.g., the β-adrenergic receptor), some agonists have a propensity to specifically favor responses by G-proteins, others by β-arrestins, as has now been extensively studied. This feature of the GPCR system is known as biased agonism and is subject to various interpretations, including agonist-induced conformational change versus selective stabilization of preexisting active conformations. Here, we explore a complete allosteric framework for biased agonism based on alternative preexisting conformations that bind more strongly, but nonexclusively, either G-proteins or β-arrestins. The framework incorporates reciprocal effects among all interacting molecules. As a result, G-proteins and β-arrestins are in steric competition for binding to the cytoplasmic surface of either the G-protein-favoring or β-arrestin-favoring GPCR conformation. Moreover, through linkage relations, the strength of the interactions of G-proteins or β-arrestins with the corresponding active conformation potentiates the apparent affinity for the agonist, effectively equating these two proteins to allosteric modulators. The balance between response alternatives can also be influenced by the physiological concentrations of either G-proteins or β-arrestins, as well as by phosphorylation or interactions with positive or negative allosteric modulators. The nature of the interactions in the simulations presented suggests novel experimental tests to distinguish more fully among alternative mechanisms. PMID:27602718

  1. Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY12 Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Casella, Andrew M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Warren, Glen A.

    2012-09-28

    Executive Summary Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today’s confirmatory methods. This document is a progress report for FY2012 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2012 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel assemblies. PNNL further refined the semi-empirical model developed in FY2011 based on singular value decomposition (SVD) to numerically account for the effects of self-shielding. The average uncertainty in the Pu mass across the NGSI-64 fuel assemblies was shown to be less than 3% using only six calibration assemblies with a 2% uncertainty in the isotopic masses. When calibrated against the six NGSI-64 fuel assemblies, the algorithm was able to determine the total Pu mass within <2% uncertainty for the 27 diversion cases also developed under NGSI. Two purely empirical algorithms were developed that do not require the use of Pu isotopic fission chambers. The semi-empirical and purely empirical algorithms were successfully tested using MCNPX simulations as well applied to experimental data measured by RPI using their LSDS. The algorithms were able to describe the 235U masses of the RPI measurements with an average uncertainty of 2.3%. Analyses were conducted that provided valuable insight with regard to design requirements (e

  2. Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

    PubMed Central

    van Tuinen, Marcel; Torres, Christopher R.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer

  3. Extended Time on Academic Assignments: Does Increased Time Lead to Improved Performance for Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pariseau, Meaghan E.; Fabiano, Gregory A.; Massetti, Greta M.; Hart, Katie C.; Pelham, William E., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Researchers examined the impact of an extended time accommodation on appropriate classroom behavior and rate of work completion for 33 children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Participants received standard (30 min) or extended (45 min) time to complete seatwork in a within-subject, crossover design study. Appropriate…

  4. Leading as Emotional Management Work in High Risk Times: The Counterintuitive Impulses of Performativity and Passion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackmore, Jill

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores, through a case study of educational restructuring in Victoria, Australia, how school leaders in a public education system in Australia mediate reform discourses emphasizing managerial and market accountability and the emotional and messy work of teaching and leading. These accountability exercises were often seen by teachers…

  5. Psychological biases in environmental judgments

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, A.

    1985-04-01

    Faced with a complex environment, all of us resort to cognitive over-simplifications and wishful thinking, in an attempt to achieve an often illusory control over our lives. The resulting biases in judgment may lead to unfortunate decisions, as well as exacerbating disputes over such matters as the interpretation of environmental data. The detrimental effects of such biases are sufficient to warrant greater attention to the phenomenon. As a step in this direction, a variety of cognitive and motivated biases are discussed, together with examples of their effect on environmental judgment.

  6. Enhanced time response of 1-in. LaBr3(Ce) crystals by leading edge and constant fraction techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vedia, V.; Mach, H.; Fraile, L. M.; Udías, J. M.; Lalkovski, S.

    2015-09-01

    We have characterized in depth the time response of three detectors equipped with cylindrical LaBr3(Ce) crystals with dimensions of 1-in. in height and 1-in. in diameter, and having nominal Ce doping concentration of 5%, 8% and 10%. Measurements were performed at 60Co and 22Na γ-ray energies against a fast BaF2 reference detector. The time resolution was optimized by the choice of the photomultiplier bias voltage and the fine tuning of the parameters of the constant fraction discriminator, namely the zero-crossing and the external delay. We report here on the optimal time resolution of the three crystals. It is observed that timing properties are influenced by the amount of Ce doping and the crystal homogeneity. For the crystal with 8% of Ce doping the use of the ORTEC 935 CFD at very shorts delays in addition to the Hamamatsu R9779 PMT has made it possible to improve the LaBr3(Ce) time resolution from the best literature value at 60Co photon energies to below 100 ps.

  7. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    SciTech Connect

    Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Chris B; Cherkauer, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977 1999 in the historical period and 2077 2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection.

  8. Predictors and grouping for bias correction of radiosonde temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, M.; Haimberger, L.

    2015-10-01

    Due to various causes, artificial biases can be found in meteorological observations. The use of biased observations in the assimilation process leads to systematic errors in the resulting analysis unless special measures are taken during the data assimilation. One such method that avoids the assumption of unbiased input observations is the variational bias correction (VarBC), which is used successfully within the (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) operational system, mainly to deal with satellite radiance data. In VarBC the bias of the given observation is estimated using a linear predictor model based on a small number of predefined predictors and the corresponding unknown bias parameters. These are estimated together with the model state by including a bias term in the cost function of the variational analysis. The radiosonde temperature biases depend mainly on pressure, on solar elevation, and on the instrumentation used. The optimal choice of the grouping of radiosonde stations (to get larger samples) and of the bias models is not obvious. While the method should be used in a 4D-VAR setting, its properties can be estimated off-line with much less computational effort. In this paper different methods for the grouping and the bias model are investigated, both using and not using metadata. At the same time the statistics are compared with the output of two independent homogeneity adjustment algorithms. The major outcome of this work is, apart from the development of predictors model suitable for VarBC, the detection of the high variability in the bias using grouping based on metadata.

  9. Simulation of blast-induced, early-time intracranial wave physics leading to traumatic brain injury.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Paul Allen; Ford, Corey C.

    2008-04-01

    U.S. soldiers are surviving blast and impacts due to effective body armor, trauma evacuation and care. Blast injuries are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in military personnel returning from combat. Understanding of Primary Blast Injury may be needed to develop better means of blast mitigation strategies. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of blast direction and strength on the resulting mechanical stress and wave energy distributions generated in the brain.

  10. Ensemble forecasts of monthly catchment rainfall out to long lead times by post-processing coupled general circulation model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.

    2014-11-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts with long lead time are being sought by water managers in Australia. In this study, we take a first step towards a monthly streamflow modelling approach by harnessing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) to produce monthly rainfall forecasts for three catchments across Australia. Bayesian methodologies are employed to produce forecasts based on CGCM raw rainfall forecasts and also CGCM sea surface temperature forecasts. The Schaake Shuffle is used to connect forecast ensemble members of individual months to form ensemble monthly time series forecasts. Monthly forecasts and three-monthly forecasts of rainfall are assessed for lead times of 0-6 months, based on leave-one-year-out cross-validation for 1980-2010. The approach is shown to produce well-calibrated ensemble forecasts that source skill from both the atmospheric and ocean modules of the CGCM. Although skill is generally low, moderate skill scores are observed in some catchments for lead times of up to 6 months. In months and catchments where there is limited skill, the forecasts revert to climatology. Thus the forecasts developed can be considered suitable for continuously forecasting time series of streamflow to long lead times, when coupled with a suitable monthly hydrological model.

  11. Alignment of leading-edge and peak-picking time of arrival methods to obtain accurate source locations

    SciTech Connect

    Roussel-Dupre, R.; Symbalisty, E.; Fox, C.; and Vanderlinde, O.

    2009-08-01

    The location of a radiating source can be determined by time-tagging the arrival of the radiated signal at a network of spatially distributed sensors. The accuracy of this approach depends strongly on the particular time-tagging algorithm employed at each of the sensors. If different techniques are used across the network, then the time tags must be referenced to a common fiducial for maximum location accuracy. In this report we derive the time corrections needed to temporally align leading-edge, time-tagging techniques with peak-picking algorithms. We focus on broadband radio frequency (RF) sources, an ionospheric propagation channel, and narrowband receivers, but the final results can be generalized to apply to any source, propagation environment, and sensor. Our analytic results are checked against numerical simulations for a number of representative cases and agree with the specific leading-edge algorithm studied independently by Kim and Eng (1995) and Pongratz (2005 and 2007).

  12. Matching times of leading and following suggest cooperation through direct reciprocity during V-formation flight in ibis

    PubMed Central

    Voelkl, Bernhard; Portugal, Steven J.; Unsöld, Markus; Usherwood, James R.; Wilson, Alan M.; Fritz, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    One conspicuous feature of several larger bird species is their annual migration in V-shaped or echelon formation. When birds are flying in these formations, energy savings can be achieved by using the aerodynamic up-wash produced by the preceding bird. As the leading bird in a formation cannot profit from this up-wash, a social dilemma arises around the question of who is going to fly in front? To investigate how this dilemma is solved, we studied the flight behavior of a flock of juvenile Northern bald ibis (Geronticus eremita) during a human-guided autumn migration. We could show that the amount of time a bird is leading a formation is strongly correlated with the time it can itself profit from flying in the wake of another bird. On the dyadic level, birds match the time they spend in the wake of each other by frequent pairwise switches of the leading position. Taken together, these results suggest that bald ibis cooperate by directly taking turns in leading a formation. On the proximate level, we propose that it is mainly the high number of iterations and the immediacy of reciprocation opportunities that favor direct reciprocation. Finally, we found evidence that the animals' propensity to reciprocate in leading has a substantial influence on the size and cohesion of the flight formations. PMID:25646487

  13. Finite-time full counting statistics and factorial cumulants for transport through a quantum dot with normal and superconducting leads.

    PubMed

    Droste, Stephanie; Governale, Michele

    2016-04-13

    We study the finite-time full counting statistics for subgap transport through a single-level quantum dot tunnel-coupled to one normal and one superconducting lead. In particular, we determine the factorial and the ordinary cumulants both for finite times and in the long-time limit. We find that the factorial cumulants violate the sign criterion, indicating a non-binomial distribution, even in absence of Coulomb repulsion due to the presence of superconducting correlations. At short times the cumulants exhibit oscillations which are a signature of the coherent transfer of Cooper pairs between the dot and the superconductor. PMID:26963047

  14. Finite-time full counting statistics and factorial cumulants for transport through a quantum dot with normal and superconducting leads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droste, Stephanie; Governale, Michele

    2016-04-01

    We study the finite-time full counting statistics for subgap transport through a single-level quantum dot tunnel-coupled to one normal and one superconducting lead. In particular, we determine the factorial and the ordinary cumulants both for finite times and in the long-time limit. We find that the factorial cumulants violate the sign criterion, indicating a non-binomial distribution, even in absence of Coulomb repulsion due to the presence of superconducting correlations. At short times the cumulants exhibit oscillations which are a signature of the coherent transfer of Cooper pairs between the dot and the superconductor.

  15. Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

    PubMed

    Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

    2000-08-01

    An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampling of trajectories is then biased, but the sampling is unbiased when the trajectory outcomes are multiplied by their weights. With a suitable choice of the biasing force, more reacted trajectories are sampled. As a consequence, the variance of the estimate is reduced. In our test case, biased Brownian dynamics gives a sevenfold improvement in central processing unit (CPU) time with the choice of a simple centripetal biasing force. PMID:10919998

  16. Revisiting the question: Does high-latitude solar activity lead low-latitude solar activity in time phase?

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, D. F.; Qu, Z. N.; Guo, Q. L.

    2014-05-01

    Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are used to investigate whether high-latitude solar activity leads low-latitude solar activity in time phase or not, using the data of the Carte Synoptique solar filaments archive from 1919 March to 1989 December. From the cross-correlation analysis, high-latitude solar filaments have a time lead of 12 Carrington solar rotations with respect to low-latitude ones. Both the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence indicate that high-latitude solar filaments lead low-latitude ones in time phase. Furthermore, low-latitude solar activity is better correlated with high-latitude solar activity of the previous cycle than with that of the following cycle, which is statistically significant. Thus, the present study confirms that high-latitude solar activity in the polar regions is indeed better correlated with the low-latitude solar activity of the following cycle than with that of the previous cycle, namely, leading in time phase.

  17. How quantization of gravity leads to a discrete space-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    't Hooft, Gerard

    2016-03-01

    The idea that the Planck length is the smallest unit of length, and the Planck time the smallest unit of time, is natural, and has been suggested many times. One can, however, also derive this more rigorously, using nothing more than the fact that black holes emit particles, according to Hawking's theory, and that these particles interact gravitationally. It is then observed that the particles, going in and out, form quantum states bouncing against the horizon. The dynamics of these microstates can be described in a partial wave expansion, but Hawking's expression for the entropy then requires a cut-off in the transverse momentum, in the form of a Brillouin zone, and this implies that these particles live on a lattice.

  18. Observing expertise-related actions leads to perfect time flow estimations.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yin-Hua; Pizzolato, Fabio; Cesari, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The estimation of the time of exposure of a picture portraying an action increases as a function of the amount of movement implied in the action represented. This effect suggests that the perceiver creates an internal embodiment of the action observed as if internally simulating the entire movement sequence. Little is known however about the timing accuracy of these internal action simulations, specifically whether they are affected by the level of familiarity and experience that the observer has of the action. In this study we asked professional pianists to reproduce different durations of exposure (shorter or longer than one second) of visual displays both specific (a hand in piano-playing action) and non-specific to their domain of expertise (a hand in finger-thumb opposition and scrambled-pixels) and compared their performance with non-pianists. Pianists outperformed non-pianists independently of the time of exposure of the stimuli; remarkably the group difference was particularly magnified by the pianists' enhanced accuracy and stability only when observing the hand in the act of playing the piano. These results for the first time provide evidence that through musical training, pianists create a selective and self-determined dynamic internal representation of an observed movement that allows them to estimate precisely its temporal duration. PMID:23405131

  19. [Influence of Reaction Time on Titanate Nanomaterials and Its Adsorptioi Capability for Lead in Aqueous Solutions].

    PubMed

    Fan, Gong-duan; Chen, Li-ru; Lin, Ru-jing; Lin, Qian; Su, Zhao-yue; Lin, Xiu-yong

    2016-02-15

    Titanate nanomaterials (TNs) were synthesized via a simple hydrothermal method using TiO2 (ST-01) and NaOH as the raw materials, and presented different morphologies by adjusting the reaction time. The physico-chemical properties of the as-prepared TNs, such as morphology, structure, surface area, and chemical composition were characterized by XRD, SEM and BET. The adsorption capability and rules of Pb(II) in aqueous solutions were tested in the static system. The results showed that the TNs prepared with 12-72 h reaction time were pure monoclinic phase titanate and their specific surface areas were in the range from 243.05 m2 x g(-1) to 286.20 m2 x g(-1). TNs with reaction time between 12-36 h mainly showed sheet structure, and those with reaction time higher than 48 h showed linear structure. The adsorption capacity of Pb(II) by TNs-12, TNs-24, TNs-36, TNs-48, TNs-60 and TNs-72 was 479.40, 504.12, 482.00, 388.10, 364.60 and 399.00 mg x g(-1), respectively. The sheet TNs had a better adsorption capacity than the linear TNs. TNs-24 had the highest adsorbing capacity. The adsorption kinetics of Pb(II) by TNs-24 followed the pseudo-second-order model, and the equilibrium data was best fitted with the Langmuir isotherm model. The equilibrium adsorption time of TNs-24 was 120 min, and the adsorption was an exothermic process, with a high adsorption capacity at low temperature or room temperature; the optimal adsorption pH was 5.0. When pH was 1.0, the desorption rate of TNs-24 could reach 99.00%, and the removal efficiency of Pb(II) by regenerated TNs was still more than 97% after six times of usage. Therefore, TNs could efficiently remove Pb(II) in aqueous solutions, and the optimal reaction time should be controlled to 12-24 h. When Cd(II) or Ni(II) existed in the solution, the equilibrium adsorption capacity and removal rate of TNs-24 were decreased. The adsorption mechanism was mainly ion-exchanged between Pb(II) and H+/Na+ in TNs. PMID:27363159

  20. Action and perception are temporally coupled by a common mechanism that leads to a timing misperception.

    PubMed

    Pretegiani, Elena; Astefanoaei, Corina; Daye, Pierre M; FitzGibbon, Edmond J; Creanga, Dorina-Emilia; Rufa, Alessandra; Optican, Lance M

    2015-01-28

    We move our eyes to explore the world, but visual areas determining where to look next (action) are different from those determining what we are seeing (perception). Whether, or how, action and perception are temporally coordinated is not known. The preparation time course of an action (e.g., a saccade) has been widely studied with the gap/overlap paradigm with temporal asynchronies (TA) between peripheral target onset and fixation point offset (gap, synchronous, or overlap). However, whether the subjects perceive the gap or overlap, and when they perceive it, has not been studied. We adapted the gap/overlap paradigm to study the temporal coupling of action and perception. Human subjects made saccades to targets with different TAs with respect to fixation point offset and reported whether they perceived the stimuli as separated by a gap or overlapped in time. Both saccadic and perceptual report reaction times changed in the same way as a function of TA. The TA dependencies of the time change for action and perception were very similar, suggesting a common neural substrate. Unexpectedly, in the perceptual task, subjects misperceived lights overlapping by less than ∼100 ms as separated in time (overlap seen as gap). We present an attention-perception model with a map of prominence in the superior colliculus that modulates the stimulus signal's effectiveness in the action and perception pathways. This common source of modulation determines how competition between stimuli is resolved, causes the TA dependence of action and perception to be the same, and causes the misperception. PMID:25632126

  1. Cascading time evolution of dissipative structures leading to unique crystalline textures

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Takeji; Murase, Hiroki

    2015-01-01

    This article reports unique pattern formation processes and mechanisms via crystallization of materials under external flow fields as one of the general problems of open nonequilibrium phenomena in statistical physics. The external fields effectively reduce step-by-step the exceedingly large free energy barriers associated with the reduction of the enormously large entropy necessary for crystallization into unique crystalline textures in the absence of the fields. The cascading reduction of the free energy barrier was discovered to be achieved as a consequence of a cascading evolution of a series of dissipative structures. Moreover, this cascading pattern evolution obeys the Ginzburg–Landau law. It first evolves a series of large-length-scale amorphous precursors driven by liquid–liquid phase separation under a relatively low bulk stress and then small-length-scale structures driven by a large local stress concentrated on the heterogeneous amorphous precursors, eventually leading to the formation of unique crystalline textures which cannot be developed free from the external fields. Here the multi-length-scale heterogeneous structures developed in the amorphous precursors play a dominant role in the triggering of the crystallization in the local regions subjected to a large stress concentration even under a relatively small applied bulk stress. PMID:25610628

  2. Precise Feature Based Time Scales and Frequency Decorrelation Lead to a Sparse Auditory Code

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chen; Read, Heather L.; Escabí, Monty A.

    2012-01-01

    Sparse redundancy reducing codes have been proposed as efficient strategies for representing sensory stimuli. A prevailing hypothesis suggests that sensory representations shift from dense redundant codes in the periphery to selective sparse codes in cortex. We propose an alternative framework where sparseness and redundancy depend on sensory integration time scales and demonstrate that the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICC) of cats encodes sound features by precise sparse spike trains. Direct comparisons with auditory cortical neurons demonstrate that ICC responses were sparse and uncorrelated as long as the spike train time scales were matched to the sensory integration time scales relevant to ICC neurons. Intriguingly, correlated spiking in the ICC was substantially lower than predicted by linear or nonlinear models and strictly observed for neurons with best frequencies within a “critical band,” the hallmark of perceptual frequency resolution in mammals. This is consistent with a sparse asynchronous code throughout much of the ICC and a complementary correlation code within a critical band that may allow grouping of perceptually relevant cues. PMID:22723685

  3. Sources of bias in single-trial normalization procedures.

    PubMed

    Ciuparu, Andrei; Mureşan, Raul C

    2016-04-01

    Baseline normalization procedures are essential for the analysis of brain activity. These use statistics of a reference (baseline) period to normalize data along the entire trial (baseline and stimulus periods). A very popular procedure is pseudo z-scoring, traditionally applied to time-frequency spectral power estimates, where it was recently shown to generate positive bias. Bias was thought to arise because of outliers stemming from the skewed distribution of spectral power values. Here we challenge this view and causally show that bias originates from a more general problem that affects a wide array of normalization techniques, including some that are routinely used. We show that bias is caused by the division of correlated terms and that it depends directly on the sign and magnitude of correlation between the numerator and denominator. Correlation emerges either from the properties of the data being normalized or from the properties of the normalization method. z-scoring produces bias when source data have a skewed distribution but it is bias-free when the distribution is symmetric, while methods such as dF/F for fluorescence data lead to bias because the numerator and denominator are inherently correlated. We provide a simple, fast and general solution to reduce and even eliminate bias by welding (fusing) baseline periods of multiple trials into a single, large baseline. This method is generic, can be used to normalize individual trials and provides bias-free estimates given a long enough extended baseline. We show that baseline fusing is superior to more complex techniques that have been proposed before. PMID:26797876

  4. Simulation of blast-induced early-time intracranial wave physics leading to traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Paul A; Ford, Corey C

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this modeling and simulation study was to establish the role of stress wave interactions in the genesis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) from exposure to explosive blast. A high resolution (1 mm3 voxels) five material model of the human head was created by segmentation of color cryosections from the Visible Human Female data set. Tissue material properties were assigned from literature values. The model was inserted into the shock physics wave code, CTH, and subjected to a simulated blast wave of 1.3 MPa (13 bars) peak pressure from anterior, posterior, and lateral directions. Three-dimensional plots of maximum pressure, volumetric tension, and deviatoric (shear) stress demonstrated significant differences related to the incident blast geometry. In particular, the calculations revealed focal brain regions of elevated pressure and deviatoric stress within the first 2 ms of blast exposure. Calculated maximum levels of 15 KPa deviatoric, 3.3 MPa pressure, and 0.8 MPa volumetric tension were observed before the onset of significant head accelerations. Over a 2 ms time course, the head model moved only 1 mm in response to the blast loading. Doubling the blast strength changed the resulting intracranial stress magnitudes but not their distribution. We conclude that stress localization, due to early-time wave interactions, may contribute to the development of multifocal axonal injury underlying TBI. We propose that a contribution to traumatic brain injury from blast exposure, and most likely blunt impact, can occur on a time scale shorter than previous model predictions and before the onset of linear or rotational accelerations traditionally associated with the development of TBI. PMID:19449961

  5. Apnea MedAssist: real-time sleep apnea monitor using single-lead ECG.

    PubMed

    Bsoul, Majdi; Minn, Hlaing; Tamil, Lakshman

    2011-05-01

    We have developed a low-cost, real-time sleep apnea monitoring system ''Apnea MedAssist" for recognizing obstructive sleep apnea episodes with a high degree of accuracy for both home and clinical care applications. The fully automated system uses patient's single channel nocturnal ECG to extract feature sets, and uses the support vector classifier (SVC) to detect apnea episodes. "Apnea MedAssist" is implemented on Android operating system (OS) based smartphones, uses either the general adult subject-independent SVC model or subject-dependent SVC model, and achieves a classification F-measure of 90% and a sensitivity of 96% for the subject-independent SVC. The real-time capability comes from the use of 1-min segments of ECG epochs for feature extraction and classification. The reduced complexity of "Apnea MedAssist" comes from efficient optimization of the ECG processing, and use of techniques to reduce SVC model complexity by reducing the dimension of feature set from ECG and ECG-derived respiration signals and by reducing the number of support vectors. PMID:20952340

  6. Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY11 Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Bowyer, Sonya M.; Casella, Andrew M.; Gesh, Christopher J.; Warren, Glen A.

    2011-09-30

    Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today's confirmatory assay methods. This document is a progress report for FY2011 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2011 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel. PNNL developed an empirical model based on calibration of the LSDS to responses generated from well-characterized used fuel. The empirical model, which accounts for self-shielding effects using empirical basis vectors calculated from the singular value decomposition (SVD) of a matrix containing the true self-shielding functions of the used fuel assembly models. The potential for the direct and independent assay of the sum of the masses of 239Pu and 241Pu to within approximately 3% over a wide used fuel parameter space was demonstrated. Also, in FY2011, PNNL continued to develop an analytical model. Such efforts included the addition of six more non-fissile absorbers in the analytical shielding function and the non-uniformity of the neutron flux across the LSDS assay chamber. A hybrid analytical-empirical approach was developed to determine the mass of total Pu (sum of the masses of 239Pu, 240Pu, and 241Pu), which is an important quantity in safeguards. Results using this hybrid method were of approximately the same accuracy as the pure

  7. Leading through rough times. An interview with Novell's Eric Schmidt. Interview by Bronwyn Fryer.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, E

    2001-05-01

    Few large companies have soared as high, sunk as low, and struggled as long as the 18-year-old networking software maker Novell. For years, the company dominated the market for local area networks, but by 1997, it had faltered due to misguided acquisitions, product missteps, and large unsold inventories. That's when Eric Schmidt arrived from Sun Microsystems to take over as Novell's third CEO. He turned the company around with a deft combination of cost reductions, divestitures, and new product rollouts, and by 1998, it was back in the black. Unfortunately, the good times didn't last, and like most technology companies, Novell is once again struggling with a slowdown in demand. But Schmidt is optimistic about returning Novell to good health, and his strategies suggest ways for other organizations to handle themselves during downturns. He counsels against being overly cautious during such times. It may be necessary to eliminate excess inventory, cut costs, and reduce the size of the staff and the management team in order to stabilize a company. Working to retain those employees whom he calls the "smart people" and keeping them motivated will have long-term payoffs. Further, Schmidt says it is necessary to acknowledge and overcome a "culture of fear," the deadening environment of cynicism in which employees suppress thoughts and feelings because they're worried about layoffs. His additional advice: keep new products coming out to sustain the interest of customers and the press, pay attention to your cash position, stay focused on your desired outcomes, and take heart from other industry leaders. PMID:11345908

  8. HEADWAY TIME AND CRASHES AMONG NOVICE TEENS AND EXPERIENCED ADULT DRIVERS IN A SIMULATED LEAD TRUCK BRAKING SCENARIO.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Catherine C; Seacrist, Thomas S; Lee, Yi-Ching; Loeb, Helen; Kandadai, Venk; Winston, Flaura K

    2013-01-01

    Driving simulators can be used to evaluate driving performance under controlled, safe conditions. Teen drivers are at particular risk for motor vehicle crashes and simulated driving can provide important information on performance. We developed a new simulator protocol, the Simulated Driving Assessment (SDA), with the goal of providing a new tool for driver assessment and a common outcome measure for evaluation of training programs. As an initial effort to examine the validity of the SDA to differentiate performance according to experience, this analysis compared driving behaviors and crashes between novice teens (n=20) and experienced adults (n=17) on a high fidelity simulator for one common crash scenario, a rear-end crash. We examined headway time and crashes during a lead truck with sudden braking event in our SDA. We found that 35% of the novice teens crashed and none of the experienced adults crashed in this lead truck braking event; 50% of the teens versus 25% of the adults had a headway time <3 seconds at the time of truck braking. Among the 10 teens with <3 seconds headway time, 70% crashed. Among all participants with a headway time of 2-3 seconds, further investigation revealed descriptive differences in throttle position and brake pedal force when comparing teens who crashed, teens who did not crash and adults (none of whom crashed). Even with a relatively small sample, we found statistically significant differences in headway time for adults and teens, providing preliminary construct validation for our new SDA. PMID:25197724

  9. Effects of rest time on discharge response and equivalent circuit model for a lead-acid battery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Lalitha; Hu, Tingshu

    2015-05-01

    This work carries out a detailed investigation on the effects of rest time on the discharge response and the parameters of the Thevenin's equivalent circuit model for a lead acid battery. Traditional methods for battery modeling require a long rest time before a discharging test so that a steady state is reached for the open circuit voltage. In a recent work, we developed an algebraic method for parameter identification of circuit models for batteries by applying discharging tests after variable and possibly very short rest time. This new method opens a door to the understanding of the effects of rest time on battery behavior, which may be used for better simulation, analysis and design of battery powered systems for improved battery efficiency and state of health. As we used the new method to extract circuit parameters after different rest times, we observed some unexpected results on the relationship between the rest time and circuit parameters. The initial voltages on the capacitors can be negative and becomes more negative as the rest time is increased. We also observed that the time constants increase with rest time. Relationships between rest time and other parameters are also reported in this paper.

  10. Robust design of (s, S) inventory policy parameters in supply chains with demand and lead time uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karimi Movahed, Kamran; Zhang, Zhi-Hai

    2015-09-01

    Demand and lead time uncertainties have significant effects on supply chain behaviour. In this paper, we present a single-product three-level multi-period supply chain with uncertain demands and lead times by using robust techniques to study the managerial insights of the supply chain inventory system under uncertainty. We formulate this problem as a robust mixed-integer linear program with minimised expected cost and total cost variation to determine the optimal (s, S) values of the inventory parameters. Several numerical studies are performed to investigate the supply chain behaviour. Useful guidelines for the design of a robust supply chain are also provided. Results show that the order variance and the expected cost in a supply chain significantly increase when the manufacturer's review period is an integer ratio of the distributor's and the retailer's review periods.

  11. Open source and healthcare in Europe - time to put leading edge ideas into practice.

    PubMed

    Murray, Peter J; Wright, Graham; Karopka, Thomas; Betts, Helen; Orel, Andrej

    2009-01-01

    Free/Libre and Open Source Software (FLOSS) is a process of software development, a method of licensing and a philosophy. Although FLOSS plays a significant role in several market areas, the impact in the health care arena is still limited. FLOSS is promoted as one of the most effective means for overcoming fragmentation in the health care sector and providing a basis for more efficient, timely and cost effective health care provision. The 2008 European Federation for Medical Informatics (EFMI) Special Topic Conference (STC) explored a range of current and future issues related to FLOSS in healthcare (FLOSS-HC). In particular, there was a focus on health records, ubiquitous computing, knowledge sharing, and current and future applications. Discussions resulted in a list of main barriers and challenges for use of FLOSS-HC. Based on the outputs of this event, the 2004 Open Steps events and subsequent workshops at OSEHC2009 and Med-e-Tel 2009, a four-step strategy has been proposed for FLOSS-HC: 1) a FLOSS-HC inventory; 2) a FLOSS-HC collaboration platform, use case database and knowledge base; 3) a worldwide FLOSS-HC network; and 4) FLOSS-HC dissemination activities. The workshop will further refine this strategy and elaborate avenues for FLOSS-HC from scientific, business and end-user perspectives. To gain acceptance by different stakeholders in the health care industry, different activities have to be conducted in collaboration. The workshop will focus on the scientific challenges in developing methodologies and criteria to support FLOSS-HC in becoming a viable alternative to commercial and proprietary software development and deployment. PMID:19745456

  12. [Bias and confounding: pharmacoepidemiological study using administrative database].

    PubMed

    Nojiri, Shuko

    2015-01-01

    The provision of health care frequently creates digitalized data such as hospital-based electronic data, medication prescription records, and claims data collectively termed "administrative database research". The data source and analytical opportunities for study create risks that can lead to misinterpretation or bias the results. This review serves as an introduction to the concept of bias and confounding to help researchers conduct methodologically sound pharmacoepidemiologic research projects using administrative databases. Beyond general considerations for observational study, there are several unique issues related to database research that should be addressed. The risks of uninterpretable or biased results can be minimized by: providing a robust description of the data tables used; focusing on why and how they were created; measuring and reporting the accuracy of diagnostic and procedural codes used; and properly accounting for any time-dependent nature of variables. The hallmark of good research is rigorously careful analysis and interpretation. The promise for value of real world evidence using databases in medical decision making must be balanced against concerns related to observational inherited limitations for bias and confounding. Researchers should aim to avoid bias in the design of a study, adjust for confounding, and discuss the effects of residual bias on the results. PMID:26028416

  13. Lead-time reduction utilizing lean tools applied to healthcare: the inpatient pharmacy at a local hospital.

    PubMed

    Al-Araidah, Omar; Momani, Amer; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Momani, Mohammed

    2010-01-01

    The healthcare arena, much like the manufacturing industry, benefits from many aspects of the Toyota lean principles. Lean thinking contributes to reducing or eliminating nonvalue-added time, money, and energy in healthcare. In this paper, we apply selected principles of lean management aiming at reducing the wasted time associated with drug dispensing at an inpatient pharmacy at a local hospital. Thorough investigation of the drug dispensing process revealed unnecessary complexities that contribute to delays in delivering medications to patients. We utilize DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) and 5S (Sort, Set-in-order, Shine, Standardize, Sustain) principles to identify and reduce wastes that contribute to increasing the lead-time in healthcare operations at the pharmacy understudy. The results obtained from the study revealed potential savings of > 45% in the drug dispensing cycle time. PMID:20151593

  14. Eliminating bias in CEM systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jahnke, J.A.

    1995-12-31

    The emission of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter from fossil-fuel fired power plants and industrial sources, is a matter of public concern that has led to both State and Federal requirements for pollution control. The accuracy of continuous emission monitoring (CEM) system data has been an issue of considerable importance in the development and implementation of the Acid Rain Program. The more stringent relative accuracy requirements of this program, coupled with the importance of emission trading allowances, has led to the need to minimize systematic errors in emissions measurement. With the inclusion of the t-test for bias in the Acid Rain Regulations of 40 CFR Part 75, a method was introduced that could be used to uncover systematic error, or bias, in CEM system measurements. Once bias is detected, it is highly desirable to either eliminate the cause of the bias or to apply correction factors to minimize its effect. However, a problem occurs in determining the cause of the bias; a task that is often both difficult and time consuming. This paper explains the rationale behind the bias test as applied to CEM systems and summarizes potential sources of systematic error in both extractive and in-situ CEM systems. The paper examines a number of factors that contribute to CEM system measurement error. Methods are suggested for both the detection and correction of the resulting biases.

  15. Real-Time 12-Lead High-Frequency QRS Electrocardiography for Enhanced Detection of Myocardial Ischemia and Coronary Artery Disease

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlegel, Todd T.; Kulecz, Walter B.; DePalma, Jude L.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Wilson, John S.; Rahman, M. Atiar; Bungo, Michael W.

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have shown that diminution of the high-frequency (HF; 150-250 Hz) components present within the central portion of the QRS complex of an electrocardiogram (ECG) is a more sensitive indicator for the presence of myocardial ischemia than are changes in the ST segments of the conventional low-frequency ECG. However, until now, no device has been capable of displaying, in real time on a beat-to-beat basis, changes in these HF QRS ECG components in a continuously monitored patient. Although several software programs have been designed to acquire the HF components over the entire QRS interval, such programs have involved laborious off-line calculations and postprocessing, limiting their clinical utility. We describe a personal computer-based ECG software program developed recently at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that acquires, analyzes, and displays HF QRS components in each of the 12 conventional ECG leads in real time. The system also updates these signals and their related derived parameters in real time on a beat-to-beat basis for any chosen monitoring period and simultaneously displays the diagnostic information from the conventional (low-frequency) 12-lead ECG. The real-time NASA HF QRS ECG software is being evaluated currently in multiple clinical settings in North America. We describe its potential usefulness in the diagnosis of myocardial ischemia and coronary artery disease.

  16. Correcting for systematic biases in GCM simulations in the frequency domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Ha; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Bias correction is considered as a critical post-processing step to remove systematic errors and improve the quality of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations before their use in climate change impact assessment applications. A majority of the bias correction approaches correct for biases either at a single time scale or at multiple pre-specified time scales. An inappropriate or insufficient selection of time scales may lead to improper or sub-optimal bias corrected outputs, especially when persistence attributes across a range of scales are of interest. In this paper, we present a new bias correction approach that works in the frequency space and is independent of specific time scales. The approach is named as frequency-based bias correction (FBC). The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the monthly rainfall simulations of MIROC5 GCM over Australia and comparing the results with two other approaches, namely, empirical quantile mapping and recursive nesting bias correction, in cross validation. The comparison is based on the reproduction of various observed distribution and persistence attributes. Cross-validation results indicate that the proposed approach shows similar performance in terms of reproducing the first- and second-order moments of observed precipitation time series, however, outperforms with regard to persistence attributes. The approach shows high potential for use in downscaling and other climate change impact assessment studies, especially for the planning and design of hydrologic systems that are sensitive to the characterisation of persistence in the hydrologic time series.

  17. Neonatal anoxia leads to time dependent progression of mitochondrial linked apoptosis in rat cortex and associated long term sensorimotor deficits.

    PubMed

    Samaiya, Puneet K; Narayan, Gopeshwar; Kumar, Ashok; Krishnamurthy, Sairam

    2016-08-01

    Neonatal anoxia arises due to oxygen deprivation at the time of birth and results in life long neurodevelopmental deficits and sometimes may lead to death. The present study investigated the time dependent cortical mitochondrial dysfunction linked apoptosis and related sensorimotor deficits in neonates. Neonates after 30h to birth (P2) were subjected to anoxia of two episodes (10min in each) at a time interval of 24h by passing 100% N2 into an enclosed chamber as confirmed by pulse oximetry. Sensorimotor activities like reflex latency and hanging latency were carried out 24h after last anoxic episode i.e. from P4 (day-1) and continued up to P10 (day-7). Mitochondrial dysfunction after anoxia was evident by the decrease in respiration states, respiratory control ratio (RCR), antioxidant enzyme activity but an increase in oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation and alteration in mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) at different time points (30min, 24h and day-7). A change in expression of Bcl-2 family proteins and opening of mitochondrial transition pore (mPTP) in terms of mitochondrial swelling was observed resulting in release of cytochrome-C which further activated intrinsic (mitochondrial) pathway of apoptosis through increased expression of caspase-9/3 as confirmed by flow cytometry. In conclusion, anoxia injury leads to progressive activation of mitochondrial events leading to increase in apoptotic cell death following secondary pathological insult. Therefore, strategies in limiting mitochondrial-linked apoptosis during the secondary insult input process may be useful in treatment of long term sensorimotor deficits following anoxia. PMID:27184438

  18. The application of EOQ and lead time crashing cost models in material with limited life time (Case study: CN-235 Aircraft at PT Dirgantara Indonesia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustina Hidayat, Yosi; Ria Kasanah, Aprilia; Yudhistira, Titah

    2016-02-01

    PT. Dirgantara Indonesia, one of State Owned Enterprises engaging in the aerospace industry, targets to control 30% of world market for light and medium sized aircraft. One type of the aircrafts produced by PT. DI every year is CN-235. Currently, the cost of material procurement reaches 50% of the total cost of production. Material has a variety of characteristics, one of which is having a lifetime. The demand characteristic of the material with expiration for the CN-235 aircraft is deterministic. PT DI does not have any scientific background for its procurement of raw material policy. In addition, there are two methods of transportation used for delivering materials, i.e. by land and air. Each method has different lead time. Inventory policies used in this research are deterministic and probabilistic. Both deterministic and probabilistic single and multi-item inventory policies have order quantity, time to order, reorder point, and lead time as decision variables. The performance indicator for this research is total inventory cost. Inventory policy using the single item EOQ and considering expiration factor inventory results in a reduction in total costs up to 69.58% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.16%. Inventory policy proposal using the model of a single item by considering expiration factor and lead time crashing cost results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.5% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.62%. Subsequently, wasted expired materials, with the proposed models have been successfully decreased to 95%.

  19. The `Clear-Sky Bias' of TOVS Upper-Tropospheric Humidity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzante, John R.; Gahrs, Gregory E.

    2000-11-01

    A temporal sampling bias may be introduced due to the inability of a measurement system to produce a valid observation during certain types of situations. In this study the temporal sampling bias in satellite-derived measures of upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) was examined through the utilization of similar humidity measures derived from radiosonde data. This bias was estimated by imparting the temporal sampling characteristics of the satellite system onto the radiosonde observations. This approach was applied to UTH derived from Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder radiances from the NOAA-10 satellite from the period 1987-91 and from the `Angell' network of 63 radiosonde stations for the same time period. Radiative modeling was used to convert both the satellite and radiosonde data to commensurate measures of UTH.Examination of the satellite temporal sampling bias focused on the effects of the `clear-sky bias' due to the inability of the satellite system to produce measurements when extensive cloud cover is present. This study indicates that the effects of any such bias are relatively small in the extratropics (about several percent relative humidity) but may be 5%-10% in the most convectively active regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, there is a systematic movement and evolution of the bias pattern following the seasonal migration of convection, which reflects the fact that the bias increases as cloud cover increases. The bias is less noticeable for shorter timescales (seasonal values) but becomes more obvious as the averaging time increases (climatological values); it may be that small-scale noise partially obscures the bias for shorter time averages. Based on indirect inference it is speculated that the bias may lead to an underestimate of the magnitude of trends in satellite UTH in the Tropics, particularly in the drier regions.

  20. Immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons.

    PubMed

    White, Katherine; Van Boven, Leaf

    2012-08-01

    In seven studies of naturally occurring, "real-world" emotional events, people demonstrated an immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons, perceiving their own current or recent emotional reactions as more intense compared with others' emotional reactions to the same events. The events examined include crossing a scary bridge (study 1a), a national tragedy (study 1b), terrorist attacks (studies 2a and 3b), a natural disaster (study 2b), and a presidential election (study 3b). These perceived differences between one's own and others' emotions declined over time, as relatively immediate and recent emotions subsided, a pattern that people were not intuitively aware of (study 2c). This immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons emerged for both explicit comparisons (studies 1a, 1b, and 3b), and for absolute judgments of emotional intensity (studies 2a, 2b, and 3a). Finally, the immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons was reduced when people were reminded that emotional display norms might lead others' appearances to understate emotional intensity (studies 3a and 3b). Implications of these findings for social-emotional phenomena are discussed. PMID:22148998

  1. Accuracy of sea level predictions with lead time of one week: a comparison between Prognocean and MyOcean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swierczynska, Malgorzata; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2015-04-01

    There exist several systems which produce sea level forecasts in real time, with lead times ranging from hours to two weeks in the future. One of the recently developed solutions is Prognocean, the system that has been built and implemented at the University of Wroclaw, Poland. Its main feature is that it uses simple time series models to predict sea level anomaly maps, and does it for lead times ranging from 1 to 14 days with daily update. The empirical data-based models are fitted in real time both to individual grids (polynomial-harmonic model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with autoregressive model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with threshold autoregressive model) and to numerous grids forming a spatial latitude x longitude window of 3˚ x 5˚ (polynomial-harmonic model combined with multivariate autoregressive model). Although their simplicity, the approaches have already been shown to produce sea level anomaly predictions of reasonable accuracy. However, none of the analyses targeted at the comparative study which would present the skills of the Prognocean system against a background of the performance of other systems that use physically-based models. This study aims to fill this gap by comparing Prognocean-based predictions for one week into the future with the corresponding prognoses calculated by MyOcean. The reader is provided with the objectively-calculated set of statistics, presented as maps, which describes prediction errors (mean absolute error, root mean square error, index of agreement) and prediction skills (prediction efficiency, coefficient of determination) of the two systems. The exercise enables to compare the skills of the approaches, and the gridwise comparison allows one to identify areas of superior performance of each system.

  2. Potential for long-lead prediction of the western North Pacific monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jung; Son, Seok-Woo; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-02-01

    Although the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon circulation significantly impacts the socioeconomic communities around Asia, its prediction is only limited to a few months. By examining the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 decadal hindcast experiments, we explore a possibility of the extended prediction skill for the WNP monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales. It is found that the multimodel ensemble (MME) predictions, initialized in January, successfully predict the WNP circulation in spring and early summer. Somewhat surprisingly, a reliable prediction of the WNP circulation appears even in the following spring with a maximum lead time of 14 months. This unexpected prediction skill is likely caused by the improved El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and the exaggerated dynamical link between the ENSO and premonsoon circulation in the MME prediction. Although further studies are needed, this result may open up new opportunities for the multiseasonal prediction of the WNP monsoon circulation.

  3. Mississippi Valley-type lead-zinc deposits through geological time: Implications from recent age-dating research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leach, D.L.; Bradley, D.; Lewchuk, Michael T.; Symons, David T. A.; De Marsily, G.; Brannon, J.

    2001-01-01

    Remarkable advances in age dating Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits provide a new opportunity to understand how and where these deposits form in the Earth's crust. These dates are summarized and examined in a framework of global tectonics, paleogeography, fluid migration, and paleoclimate. Nineteen districts have been dated by paleomagnetic and/or radiometric methods. Of the districts that have both paleomagnetic and radiometric dates, only the Pine Point and East Tennessee districts have significant disagreements. This broad agreement between paleomagnetic and radiometric dates provides added confidence in the dating techniques used. The new dates confirm the direct connection between the genesis of MVT lead-zinc ores with global-scale tectonic events. The dates show that MVT deposits formed mainly during large contractional tectonic events at restricted times in the history of the Earth. Only the deposits in the Lennard Shelf of Australia and Nanisivik in Canada have dates that correspond to extensional tectonic events. The most important period for MVT genesis was the Devonian to Permian time, which corresponds to a series of intense tectonic events during the assimilation of Pangea. The second most important period for MVT genesis was Cretaceous to Tertiary time when microplate assimilation affected the western margin of North America and Africa-Eurasia. There is a notable paucity of MVT lead-zinc ore formation following the breakup of Rodinia and Pangea. Of the five MVT deposits hosted in Proterozoic rocks, only the Nanisivik deposit has been dated as Proterozoic. The contrast in abundance between SEDEX and MVT lead-zinc deposits in the Proterozoic questions the frequently suggested notion that the two types of ores share similar genetic paths. The ages of MVT deposits, when viewed with respect to the orogenic cycle in the adjacent orogen suggest that no single hydrologic model can be universally applied to the migration of the ore fluids

  4. Unlearning Implicit Social Biases During Sleep **

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W.; Creery, Jessica D.; Vargas, Iliana M.; Bodenhausen, Galen V.; Paller, Ken A.

    2015-01-01

    Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counter-stereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison to the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained one week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counter-stereotype training, and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent. PMID:26023137

  5. Chlorine doping reduces electron-hole recombination in lead iodide perovskites: time-domain ab initio analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jin; Prezhdo, Oleg V

    2015-11-19

    Rapid development in lead halide perovskites has led to solution-processable thin film solar cells with power conversion efficiencies close to 20%. Nonradiative electron-hole recombination within perovskites has been identified as the main pathway of energy losses, competing with charge transport and limiting the efficiency. Using nonadiabatic (NA) molecular dynamics, combined with time-domain density functional theory, we show that nonradiative recombination happens faster than radiative recombination and long-range charge transfer to an acceptor material. Doping of lead iodide perovskites with chlorine atoms reduces charge recombination. On the one hand, chlorines decrease the NA coupling because they contribute little to the wave functions of the valence and conduction band edges. On the other hand, chlorines shorten coherence time because they are lighter than iodines and introduce high-frequency modes. Both factors favor longer excited-state lifetimes. The simulation shows good agreement with the available experimental data and contributes to the comprehensive understanding of electronic and vibrational dynamics in perovskites. The generated insights into design of higher-efficiency solar cells range from fundamental scientific principles, such as the role of electron-vibrational coupling and quantum coherence, to practical guidelines, such as specific suggestions for chemical doping. PMID:26505613

  6. Trend Analysis of Long Lead-Time Snowpack Forecasts using Data Segregated by Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, S.; Kunkel, M. L.; Holbrook, V. P.; Timilsena, J.; Blestrud, D.; Parkinson, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water planners in the western United States are challenged with managing resources for various uses, including hydropower. In southern Idaho, water planners rely heavily on snowpack forecasts to determine future hydropower availability and estimate the need for other generation sources. The development of improved snowpack forecast models in the Snake River Basin is an ongoing challenge. Previously, we examined the ability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure to long lead-time forecasts snowpack using six-month predictor periods with mixed results. Our current analysis uses three-month predictor periods and segregates data based on the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Data from cold-phase PDO years (1950 - 1976, 1999 - present) were used with singular value decomposition to identify regions of SSTs and 500-millibar heights (500-Mb) that were teleconnected with snowpack in western Idaho. The identified regions were used in a non-parametric forecasting model to produce long lead-time snowpack forecasts. Forecasts using data segregated by cold phase PDO proved more accurate than forecasts using data that spanned warm and cold phases of the PDO. Trend analysis was performed to determine forecast accuracy relative to both a climatological forecast and the observed snowpack. While forecasting specific values of snowpack remains a challenge, strong trends emerge which are useful in predicting the relative volume of snowpack anticipated for a given region.

  7. Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead-time streamflow forecasting in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2007-12-01

    In the recent past, oceanic-atmospheric oscillations have been used successfully for long lead-time streamflow forecasting. Herein, we present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) for the long lead-time streamflow forecast incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on Statistical Learning Theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and can be used to predict a quantity forward in time based on training that uses past data. The principal strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problems. The SVMs are considered superior to the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) due to the tendency of formulating a quadratic optimization problem which ensures a global optimum that is found missing in the traditional ANN approach. The SVM model was applied to four unimpaired gages in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The streamflow data for the selected gages was used from 1906¡§C2004. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indexes comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906¡§C2001 were used to generate streamflow volumes for three years ahead. The SVM model was trained with 86 years of data (1906¡§C1991) and tested for 10 years of data (1992-2001). The testing criteria used for the model effectiveness was based on correlation coefficient r, root means square error (RMSE) and nash sutcliffe efficiency coefficient e. Predictions during the testing phase showed a good agreement with measured streamflow volumes for the selected gages in UCRB. Rigorous sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of individual oscillation. The results indicated a strong signal for NAO and ENSO indexes as compared to PDO and AMO indexes for the long lead-time streamflow forecast. The oceanic

  8. Bias in Grading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malouff, John

    2008-01-01

    Bias in grading can be conscious or unconscious. The author describes different types of bias, such as those based on student attractiveness or performance in prior courses, and a variety of methods of reducing bias, including keeping students anonymous during grading and using detailed criteria for subjective grading.

  9. Bias in Mental Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bond, Lloyd

    1981-01-01

    While some forms of test bias (for example, bias in selection and prediction) appear amenable to definitional consensus, a definition of cultural bias will remain problematic so long as it is confused with the nature/nurture issue. (Author/BW)

  10. Demonstrating the Correspondence Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howell, Jennifer L.; Shepperd, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Among the best-known and most robust biases in person perception is the correspondence bias--the tendency for people to make dispositional, rather than situational, attributions for an actor's behavior. The correspondence bias appears in virtually every social psychology textbook and in many introductory psychology textbooks, yet the authors'…

  11. Recalibrating Academic Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yancey, George

    2012-01-01

    Whether political and/or religious academic bias exists is a question with important ramifications for the educational institutions. Those arguing for the presence of such bias contend that political conservatives and the highly religious in academia are marginalized and face discrimination. The question of academic bias tends to be cast in a…

  12. Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sedlak, J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are

  13. Queries for Bias Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gordon, Diana F.

    1992-01-01

    Selecting a good bias prior to concept learning can be difficult. Therefore, dynamic bias adjustment is becoming increasingly popular. Current dynamic bias adjustment systems, however, are limited in their ability to identify erroneous assumptions about the relationship between the bias and the target concept. Without proper diagnosis, it is difficult to identify and then remedy faulty assumptions. We have developed an approach that makes these assumptions explicit, actively tests them with queries to an oracle, and adjusts the bias based on the test results.

  14. Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in ADC measurements

    PubMed Central

    Malyarenko, Dariya I.; Ross, Brian D.; Chenevert, Thomas L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially-dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10–20%) in ADC measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. Methods All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Results Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75–95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3–0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. Conclusions The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. PMID:23794533

  15. Nonmonotonic energy harvesting efficiency in biased exciton chains.

    PubMed

    Vlaming, S M; Malyshev, V A; Knoester, J

    2007-10-21

    We theoretically study the efficiency of energy harvesting in linear exciton chains with an energy bias, where the initial excitation is taking place at the high-energy end of the chain and the energy is harvested (trapped) at the other end. The efficiency is characterized by means of the average time for the exciton to be trapped after the initial excitation. The exciton transport is treated as the intraband energy relaxation over the states obtained by numerically diagonalizing the Frenkel Hamiltonian that corresponds to the biased chain. The relevant intraband scattering rates are obtained from a linear exciton-phonon interaction. Numerical solution of the Pauli master equation that describes the relaxation and trapping processes reveals a complicated interplay of factors that determine the overall harvesting efficiency. Specifically, if the trapping step is slower than or comparable to the intraband relaxation, this efficiency shows a nonmonotonic dependence on the bias: it first increases when introducing a bias, reaches a maximum at an optimal bias value, and then decreases again because of dynamic (Bloch) localization of the exciton states. Effects of on-site (diagonal) disorder, leading to Anderson localization, are addressed as well. PMID:17949203

  16. Sequential injection analysis of lead using time-based colorimetric detection and preconcentration on an anionic-exchange resin.

    PubMed

    Aracama, Nestor Zárate; Araújo, Alberto N; Perez-Olmos, Ricardo

    2004-04-01

    The development of a sequential injection analysis manifold for the colorimetric determination of lead in water samples is described The concentration of lead was assessed from its catalytic effect on the reaction of resazurine reduction caused by sulfide in an alkali medium. To that effect, the reaction zone was stopped at the detector, and the time interval required for the attainment of an absorbance decrease of 0.800 at the wavelength of 610 nm was estimated. Interference of other transition metals of the samples was minimized by adding potassium iodide to the sample and retaining the iodocomplexes formed in an on-line anionic resin (AGI X8). Elution was made with a 2 mol/L sodium hydroxide solution. The relationship [SIA] microg/L = 0.99 (+/- 0.11) x [ETAAS] microg/L + 0 (+/- 4) was obtained upon comparing the results given by the proposed system and by electrothermal atomization atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) after the analysis of ten water samples. PMID:15116968

  17. New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

    2005-05-01

    of the constituant layers. The spirit of this topical issue is, for the first time, to gather and survey recent and original developments, both experimental and theoretical, which bring new insights into the physics of exchange bias. It has been planned in relation with an international workshop exclusively devoted to exchange bias, namely IWEBMN’04 (International Workshop on Exchange Bias in Magnetic Nanostructures) that took place in Anglet, in the south west of France, from 16th to 18th September 2004. The conference gathered worldwide researchers in the area, both experimentalists and theoreticians. Several research paths are particularly active in the field of magnetic exchange coupling. The conference, as well as this topical issue, which was also open to contributions from scientists not participating in the conference, has been organized according to the following principles: 1. Epitaxial systems: Since the essential behavior of exchange bias critically depends on the atomic-level chemical and spin structure at the interface between the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic components, epitaxial AF/F systems in which the quality of the interface and the crystalline coherence are optimized and well known are ideal candidates for a better understanding of the underlying physics of exchange bias. The dependence of exchange bias on the spin configurations at the interfaces can be accomplished by selecting different crystallographic orientations. The role of interface roughness can also be understood from thin-film systems by changing the growth parameters, and correlations between the interface structure and exchange bias can be made, as reported in this issue. 2. Out-of-plane magnetized systems: While much important work has been devoted to the study of structures with in-plane magnetization, little has been done on the study of exchange bias and exchange coupling in samples with out-of-plane magnetization. Some systems can exhibit either in-plane or out

  18. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

    PubMed

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

    2016-06-21

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics. PMID:27330086

  19. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  20. TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA DISTANCE MODULUS BIAS AND DISPERSION FROM K-CORRECTION ERRORS: A DIRECT MEASUREMENT USING LIGHT CURVE FITS TO OBSERVED SPECTRAL TIME SERIES

    SciTech Connect

    Saunders, C.; Aldering, G.; Aragon, C.; Bailey, S.; Childress, M.; Fakhouri, H. K.; Kim, A. G.; Antilogus, P.; Bongard, S.; Canto, A.; Cellier-Holzem, F.; Guy, J.; Baltay, C.; Buton, C.; Chotard, N.; Copin, Y.; Gangler, E.; and others

    2015-02-10

    We estimate systematic errors due to K-corrections in standard photometric analyses of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. Errors due to K-correction occur when the spectral template model underlying the light curve fitter poorly represents the actual supernova spectral energy distribution, meaning that the distance modulus cannot be recovered accurately. In order to quantify this effect, synthetic photometry is performed on artificially redshifted spectrophotometric data from 119 low-redshift supernovae from the Nearby Supernova Factory, and the resulting light curves are fit with a conventional light curve fitter. We measure the variation in the standardized magnitude that would be fit for a given supernova if located at a range of redshifts and observed with various filter sets corresponding to current and future supernova surveys. We find significant variation in the measurements of the same supernovae placed at different redshifts regardless of filters used, which causes dispersion greater than ∼0.05 mag for measurements of photometry using the Sloan-like filters and a bias that corresponds to a 0.03 shift in w when applied to an outside data set. To test the result of a shift in supernova population or environment at higher redshifts, we repeat our calculations with the addition of a reweighting of the supernovae as a function of redshift and find that this strongly affects the results and would have repercussions for cosmology. We discuss possible methods to reduce the contribution of the K-correction bias and uncertainty.

  1. SureCure ®-A new material to reduces curing time and improve curing reproducibility of lead-acid batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boden, David P.; Loosemore, Daniel V.; Botts, G. Dean

    This paper introduces a technology that considerably reduces the time to cure the positive plates of lead-acid batteries. In each of several full-scale trials at automotive and industrial battery manufacturers, the simple replacement of 1 wt.% of leady oxide with finely-divided tetrabasic lead sulfate (SureCure™ by Hammond Group Inc.) is shown to accelerate significantly the conversion of tribasic lead sulfate (3BS) to tetrabasic lead sulfate (4BS) in the curing process while improving crystal structure and reproducibility. Shorter curing times result in reduced labour and energy costs, as well as reduced fixed (curing chambers and plant footprint) and working (plate inventory) capital investment.

  2. Real time analysis of lead-containing atmospheric particles in Beijing during springtime by single particle aerosol mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Ma, Li; Li, Mei; Huang, Zhengxu; Li, Lei; Gao, Wei; Nian, Huiqing; Zou, Lilin; Fu, Zhong; Gao, Jian; Chai, Fahe; Zhou, Zhen

    2016-07-01

    Using a single particle aerosol mass spectrometer (SPAMS), the chemical composition and size distributions of lead (Pb)-containing particles with diameter from 0.1 μm to 2.0 μm in Beijing were analyzed in the spring of 2011 during clear, hazy, and dusty days. Based on mass spectral features of particles, cluster analysis was applied to Pb-containing particles, and six major classes were acquired consisting of K-rich, carboneous, Fe-rich, dust, Pb-rich, and Cl-rich particles. Pb-containing particles accounted for 4.2-5.3%, 21.8-22.7%, and 3.2% of total particle number during clear, hazy and dusty days, respectively. K-rich particles are a major contribution to Pb-containing particles, varying from 30.8% to 82.1% of total number of Pb-containing particles, lowest during dusty days and highest during hazy days. The results reflect that the chemical composition and amount of Pb-containing particles has been affected by meteorological conditions as well as the emissions of natural and anthropogenic sources. K-rich particles and carbonaceous particles could be mainly assigned to the emissions of coal combustion. Other classes of Pb-containing particles may be associated with metallurgical processes, coal combustion, dust, and waste incineration etc. In addition, Pb-containing particles during dusty days were first time studied by SPAMS. This method could provide a powerful tool for monitoring and controlling of Pb pollution in real time. PMID:27085059

  3. Spectral dependence of direct and trap-mediated recombination processes in lead halide perovskites using time resolved microwave conductivity.

    PubMed

    Guse, Joanna A; Soufiani, Arman M; Jiang, Liangcong; Kim, Jincheol; Cheng, Yi-Bing; Schmidt, Timothy W; Ho-Baillie, Anita; McCamey, Dane R

    2016-04-28

    Elucidating the decay mechanisms of photoexcited charge carriers is key to improving the efficiency of solar cells based on organo-lead halide perovskites. Here we investigate the spectral dependence (via above-, inter- and sub-bandgap optical excitations) of direct and trap-mediated decay processes in CH3NH3PbI3 using time resolved microwave conductivity (TRMC). We find that the total end-of-pulse mobility is excitation wavelength dependent - the mobility is maximized (172 cm(2) V(-1) s(-1)) when charge carriers are excited by near bandgap light (780 nm) in the low charge carrier density regime (10(9) photons per cm(2)), and is lower for above- and sub-bandgap excitations. Direct recombination is found to occur on the 100-400 ns timescale across excitation wavelengths near and above the bandgap, whereas indirect recombination processes displayed distinct behaviour following above- and sub-bandgap excitations, suggesting the influence of different trap distributions on recombination dynamics. PMID:27067120

  4. Bias correction with Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    With this work, we aim at developping a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias. First, through a preliminary run, we estimate the bias of the model and its possible sources. Then, we establish a forcing term which is directly added inside the model's equations. We create an ensemble of runs and consider the forcing term as a control variable during the assimilation of observations. We then use this analysed forcing term to correct the bias of the model. Since the forcing is added inside the model, it acts as a source term, unlike external forcings such as wind. This procedure has been developed and successfully tested with a twin experiment on a Lorenz 95 model. Indeed, we were able to estimate and recover an artificial bias that had been added into the model. This bias had a spatial structure and was constant through time. The mean and behaviour of the corrected model corresponded to those the reference model. It is currently being applied and tested on the sea ice ocean NEMO LIM model, which is used in the PredAntar project. NEMO LIM is a global and low resolution (2 degrees) coupled model (hydrodynamic model and sea ice model) with long time steps allowing simulations over several decades. Due to its low resolution, the model is subject to bias in area where strong currents are present. We aim at correcting this bias by using perturbed current fields from higher resolution models and randomly generated perturbations. The random perturbations need to be constrained in order to respect the physical properties of the ocean, and not create unwanted phenomena. To construct those random perturbations, we first create a random field with the Diva tool (Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis). Using a cost function, this tool penalizes abrupt variations in the field, while using a custom correlation length. It also decouples disconnected areas based on topography. Then, we filter

  5. Resolving Bias in Laser Ablation Geochronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowring, James; Horstwood, Matthew; Gehrels, George

    2013-06-01

    Increasingly, scientific investigations requiring geochronology utilize laser ablation (LA)-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS), taking advantage of the efficiency and throughput possible for uranium-thorium-lead (U-Th-Pb) dating. A number of biases exist when comparing data among laboratories and an ongoing community-based effort is working to resolve and eliminate these biases to improve the accuracy of scientific interpretation based on these data.

  6. Self regulating body bias generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hass, Kenneth (Inventor)

    2004-01-01

    The back bias voltage on a functional circuit is controlled through a closed loop process. A delay element receives a clock pulse and produces a delay output. The delay element is advantageously constructed of the same materials as the functional circuit so that the aging and degradation of the delay element parallels the degradation of the functional circuit. As the delay element degrades, the transistor switching time increases, increasing the time delay of the delay output. An AND gate compares a clock pulse to an output pulse of the delay element, the AND output forming a control pulse. A duty cycle of the control pulse is determined by the delay time between the clock pulse and the delay element output. The control pulse is received at the input of a charge pump. The charge pump produces a back bias voltage which is then applied to the delay element and to the functional circuit. If the time delay produced by the delay element exceeds the optimal delay, the duty cycle of the control pulse is shortened, and the back bias voltage is lowered, thereby increasing the switching speed of the transistors in the delay element and reducing the time delay. If the throughput of the delay element is too fast, the duty cycle of the control pulse is lengthened, raising the back bias voltage produced by the charge pump. This, in turn, lowers the switching speed of the transistors in both the delay element and the functional circuit. The slower switching speed in the delay element increases time delay. In this manner, the switching speed of the delay element, and of the functional circuit, is maintained at a constant level over the life of the circuit.

  7. Effective biasing schemes for duct streaming problems.

    PubMed

    Broadhead, B L; Wagner, J C

    2005-01-01

    The effective use of biasing for the Monte Carlo solution of a void streaming problem is essential to obtaining a reasonable result in a reasonable amount of time. Most general purpose Monte Carlo shielding codes allow for the user to select the particular biasing techniques best oriented to the particular problem of interest. The biasing strategy for void streaming problems many times differs from that of a deep penetration problem. The key in void streaming is to bias particles into the streaming path, whereas in deep penetration problems the biasing is aimed at forcing particles through the shield. Until recently, the biasing scheme in the SCALE SAS4 shielding module was considered inadequate for void streaming problems due to the assumed one-dimensional nature of the automated bias prescription. A modified approach to the automated biasing in SAS4 has allowed for significant gains to be realised in the use of the code for void streaming problems. This paper applies the modified SAS4 procedures to a spent fuel storage cask model with vent ports. The results of the SAS4 analysis are compared with those of the ADVANTG methodology, which is an accelerated version of MCNP. Various options available for the implementation of the SAS4 methodology are reviewed and recommendations offered. PMID:16604687

  8. Political Bias and Nonpolitical News: A Content Analysis of an Armenian and Iranian Earthquake in the "New York Times" and the "Washington Post."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keshishian, Flora

    1997-01-01

    Examines coverage in two leading United States newspapers of earthquakes in Armenia and Iran. Finds that the newspapers' reportage was more sympathetic (both in the amount and language of coverage) toward Armenia/Soviet Union with whom the United States had friendly relations, than to the earthquake in Iran, a country on unfriendly terms with the…

  9. Investigating the mechanisms of seasonal ENSO phase locking bias in the ACCESS coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Harun A.; Hirst, Anthony C.

    2016-02-01

    The mechanisms of coupled model bias in seasonal ENSO phase locking are investigated using versions 1.0 and 1.3 of the CSIRO-BOM ACCESS coupled model (hereafter, ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3, respectively). The two ACCESS coupled models are mostly similar in construction except for some differences, the most notable of which are in the cloud and land surface schemes used in the models. ACCESS1.0 simulates a realistic seasonal phase locking, with the ENSO variability peaking in December as in observations. On the other hand, the simulated ENSO variability in ACCESS1.3 peaks in March, a bias shown to be shared by many other CMIP5 models. To explore the mechanisms of this model bias, we contrast the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks associated with ENSO in both ACCESS model simulations and also compare the key feedbacks with those in other CMIP5 models. We find evidence that the ENSO phase locking bias in ACCESS1.3 is primarily caused by incorrect simulations of the shortwave feedback and the thermocline feedback in this model. The bias in the shortwave feedback is brought about by unrealistic SST-cloud interactions leading to a positive cloud feedback bias that is largest around March, in contrast to the strongest negative cloud feedback found in ACCESS1.0 simulations and observations at that time. The positive cloud feedback bias in ACCESS1.3 is the result of a dominant role played by the low-level clouds in its modeled SST-cloud interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. Two factors appear to contribute to the dominance of low-level clouds in ACCESS1.3: the occurrence of a stronger mean descending motion bias and, to a lesser extent, a larger mean SST cold bias during March-April in ACCESS1.3 than in ACCESS1.0. A similar association is found between the positive cloud feedback bias and the biases in spring-time mean descending motion and SST for a group of CMIP5 models that show a seasonal phase locking bias similar to ACCESS1.3. Significant differences are also found

  10. Biased predecision processing.

    PubMed

    Brownstein, Aaron L

    2003-07-01

    Decision makers conduct biased predecision processing when they restructure their mental representation of the decision environment to favor one alternative before making their choice. The question of whether biased predecision processing occurs has been controversial since L. Festinger (1957) maintained that it does not occur. The author reviews relevant research in sections on theories of cognitive dissonance, decision conflict, choice certainty, action control, action phases, dominance structuring, differentiation and consolidation, constructive processing, motivated reasoning, and groupthink. Some studies did not find evidence of biased predecision processing, but many did. In the Discussion section, the moderators are summarized and used to assess the theories. PMID:12848220