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Sample records for lead time bias

  1. The right side? Under time pressure, approach motivation leads to right-oriented bias.

    PubMed

    Roskes, Marieke; Sligte, Daniel; Shalvi, Shaul; De Dreu, Carsten K W

    2011-11-01

    Approach motivation, a focus on achieving positive outcomes, is related to relative left-hemispheric brain activation, which translates to a variety of right-oriented behavioral biases. In two studies, we found that approach-motivated individuals display a right-oriented bias, but only when they are forced to act quickly. In a task in which they had to divide lines into two equal parts, approach-motivated individuals bisected the line at a point farther to the right than avoidance-motivated individuals did, but only when they worked under high time pressure. In our analysis of all Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup penalty shoot-outs, we found that goalkeepers were two times more likely to dive to the right than to the left when their team was behind, a situation that we conjecture induces approach motivation. Because penalty takers shot toward the two sides of the goal equally often, the goalkeepers' right-oriented bias was dysfunctional, allowing more goals to be scored. Directional biases may facilitate group coordination but prove maladaptive in individual settings and interpersonal competition. PMID:22006059

  2. Intergroup time bias and racialized social relations.

    PubMed

    Vala, Jorge; Pereira, Cícero Roberto; Oliveira Lima, Marcus Eugênio; Leyens, Jacques-Philippe

    2012-04-01

    Within the framework of intergroup relations, the authors analyzed the time people spent evaluating ingroup and outgroup members. They hypothesized that White participants take longer to evaluate White targets than Black targets. In four experiments, White participants were slower to form impressions of White than of Black people; that is, they showed an intergroup time bias (ITB). In Study 1 (N = 60), the ITB correlated with implicit prejudice and homogeneity. Study 2 (N = 60) showed that the ITB was independent of the type of trait in question (nonstereotypical vs. stereotypical). Study 3 (N = 100) demonstrated that ITB correlates with racism measured 3 months beforehand, is independent of motivation to control prejudice, and is not an epiphenomenon of homogeneity. In Study 4 (N = 40) participants not only showed the ITB in a racialized social context but also displayed it following a minimal group manipulation. PMID:22143309

  3. Racial-ethnic biases, time pressure, and medical decisions.

    PubMed

    Stepanikova, Irena

    2012-09-01

    This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time pressure, implicit biases regarding blacks and Hispanics led to a less serious diagnosis. In addition, implicit biases regarding blacks led to a lower likelihood of a referral to specialist when physicians were under high time pressure. The results suggest that when physicians face stress, their implicit biases may shape medical decisions in ways that disadvantage minority patients. PMID:22811465

  4. Leading time domain seismic precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Keskebes, A.; Tselikas, N. T.

    2014-08-01

    The problem of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is threefold. On one hand it is necessary to predict the date and magnitude of an earthquake, and on the other hand the location of the epicenter. In this work after a brief review of the state of earthquake prediction research, we report on a new leading time precursor for determining time onset of earthquake occurrence. We report the linking between earthquakes of the past with those which happen in the future via Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL) numbers. We demonstrate it here with two example seed earthquakes at least 100 years old. Using this leading indicator method we can predict significant earthquake events >6.5R, with good accuracy approximately +- 1 day somewhere in the world. From a single seed we produce at least 100 trials simultaneously of which 50% are correct to +- 1day. The indicator is based on Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL). This result hints that the log periodic FDL numbers are at the root of the understanding of the earthquake mechanism. The theory is based on the assumption that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series. (The mechanism could well be linked to planetary orbits). When future dates are derived from clustering and convergence from previous strong earthquake dates at an FDL time distance, then we have a high probability for an earthquake to occur on that date. We set up a real time system which generates FDL time series from each previous significant earthquake (>7R) and we produce a year to year calendar of high probability earthquake dates. We have tested this over a number of years with considerable success. We have applied this technique for strong (>7R) earthquakes across the globe as well as on a restricted region such as the Greek geographic region where the magnitude is small (>4R-6.5R). In both cases the success of the method is impressive. It is our belief that supplementing this method with

  5. Alleviating bias leads to accurate and personalized recommendation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Tian; Wang, Tian-Tian; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhong, Li-Xin; Chen, Guang

    2013-11-01

    Recommendation bias towards objects has been found to have an impact on personalized recommendation, since objects present heterogeneous characteristics in some network-based recommender systems. In this article, based on a biased heat conduction recommendation algorithm (BHC) which considers the heterogeneity of the target objects, we propose a heterogeneous heat conduction algorithm (HHC), by further taking the heterogeneity of the source objects into account. Tested on three real datasets, the Netflix, RYM and MovieLens, the HHC algorithm is found to present better recommendation in both the accuracy and diversity than two benchmark algorithms, i.e., the original BHC and a hybrid algorithm of heat conduction and mass diffusion (HHM), while not requiring any other accessorial information or parameter. Moreover, the HHC algorithm also elevates the recommendation accuracy on cold objects, referring to the so-called cold-start problem. Eigenvalue analyses show that, the HHC algorithm effectively alleviates the recommendation bias towards objects with different level of popularity, which is beneficial to solving the accuracy-diversity dilemma.

  6. Transit time spreads in biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sise, Omer; Zouros, Theo J. M.

    2016-02-01

    The biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers (HDAs) are an alternative to conventional (centric) HDAs maintaining greater dispersion, lower angular aberrations, and hence better energy resolution without the use of any additional fringing field correctors. In the present work, the transit time spread of the biased paracentric HDA is computed over a wide range of analyzer parameters. The combination of high energy resolution with good time resolution and simplicity of design makes the biased paracentric analyzers very promising for both coincidence and singles spectroscopy applications.

  7. Ocean acoustic tomography - Travel time biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spiesberger, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The travel times of acoustic rays traced through a climatological sound-speed profile are compared with travel times computed through the same profile containing an eddy field. The accuracy of linearizing the relations between the travel time difference and the sound-speed deviation at long ranges is assessed using calculations made for two different eddy fields measured in the eastern Atlantic. Significant nonlinearities are found in some cases, and the relationships of the values of these nonlinearities to the range between source and receiver, to the anomaly size associated with the eddies, and to the positions of the eddies are studied. An analytical model of the nonlinearities is discussed.

  8. Racial-Ethnic Biases, Time Pressure, and Medical Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stepanikova, Irena

    2012-01-01

    This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time…

  9. Directionality Time - New Analytical Treatment of Directionally Biased, Crawling Motility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jay; Loosley, Alexander

    Insights on crucial biological functions often emerge from measuring how animal cells crawl on surfaces, particularly in response to gradients of external cues that cause directionally biased motion. Most existing metrics commonly used to characterize directional migration, such as straightness index (or chemotactic index), persistence time, and turning angle distribution, tend to be sensitive to relatively large errors at short sampling times. In contrast, we recently introduced a new metric, called directionality time, to define the onset time by which a seemingly random motion becomes directionally biased (O'Brien et al., J Leukocyte Biol, 2014, 95:993-1004 Loosley et al., PLOS ONE, 2015, 10.1371). Directionality time is obtained by fitting the mean squared displacement as a function of time interval, in log-log coordinates, to a fit function based on biased and persistent random walk processes. We show that the fit function is approximately model invariant and is applicable to a variety of directionally biased motions. Simulations are performed to show the robustness of the directionality time model and its decoupling from measurement errors. Finally, we demonstrate as an example how to usefully apply the directionality time fit to trajectories of chemotactic neutrophils.

  10. Accelerated failure time model under general biased sampling scheme.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jane Paik; Sit, Tony; Ying, Zhiliang

    2016-07-01

    Right-censored time-to-event data are sometimes observed from a (sub)cohort of patients whose survival times can be subject to outcome-dependent sampling schemes. In this paper, we propose a unified estimation method for semiparametric accelerated failure time models under general biased estimating schemes. The proposed estimator of the regression covariates is developed upon a bias-offsetting weighting scheme and is proved to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Large sample properties for the estimator are also derived. Using rank-based monotone estimating functions for the regression parameters, we find that the estimating equations can be easily solved via convex optimization. The methods are confirmed through simulations and illustrated by application to real datasets on various sampling schemes including length-bias sampling, the case-cohort design and its variants. PMID:26941240

  11. Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

    DOEpatents

    Gottschalk, B.

    1981-07-30

    A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting is described. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

  12. Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

    DOEpatents

    Gottschalk, Bernard

    1983-01-01

    A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

  13. Habitual reading biases in the allocation of study time.

    PubMed

    Ariel, Robert; Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S; Was, Christopher A; Dunlosky, John

    2011-10-01

    Item order can bias learners' study decisions and undermine the use of more effective allocation strategies, such as allocating study time to items in one's region of proximal learning. In two experiments, we evaluated whether the influence of item order on study decisions reflects habitual responding based on a reading bias. We manipulated the order in which relatively easy, moderately difficult, and difficult items were presented from left to right on a computer screen and examined selection preference as a function of item order and item difficulty. Experiment 1a was conducted with native Arabic readers and in Arabic, and Experiment 1b was conducted with native English readers and in English. Students from both cultures prioritized items for study in the reading order of their native language: Arabic readers selected items for study in a right-to-left fashion, whereas English readers largely selected items from left to right. In Experiment 2, native English readers completed the same task as participants in Experiment 1b, but for some participants, lines of text were rotated upside down to encourage them to read from right to left. Participants who read upside-down text were more likely to first select items on the right side of an array than were participants who studied right-side-up text. These results indicate that reading habits can bias learners' study decisions and can undermine agenda-based regulation. PMID:21735331

  14. Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.; Yu, James B.

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.

  15. Condition bias of hunter-shot ring-necked ducks exposed to lead

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCracken, K.G.; Afton, A.D.; Peters, M.S.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the condition bias hypothesis for ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris) exposed to lead by testing the null hypothesis that ducks shot by hunters do not differ in physiological condition from those collected randomly from the same location. After adjusting for structural body size and log(e) concentration of blood lead, we found that overall body condition differed significantly between collection types and age classes, and marginally between sexes. Ingesta-free body mass of ring-necked ducks sampled randomly averaged 8.8% greater than those shot over decoys, and 99% of this difference was accounted for by lipid reserves. Ingesta, ash, and protein did not differ between collection types; however, after-hatching-year (AHY) birds had 5.1% more ash and 4.8% more protein than did hatching-year (HY) birds. The only sex difference was that males had 4.1% more protein than did females. Ingesta-free body mass, lipids, and protein were negatively related to concentration of blood lead. Collection type-by-concentration of blood lead and age-by-sex-by-concentration of blood lead interactions were not significant. To the extent that lead pellets persist as a cause of disease or mortality, waterfowl biologists should account for lead exposure as a possible source of condition bias when estimating population parameters and modeling survival of ring-necked ducks and other waterfowl species prone to ingest lead. These findings further underscore the problem that ingested lead shotgun pellets pose for waterfowl.

  16. Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities.

    PubMed

    Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of

  17. Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities

    PubMed Central

    Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of

  18. Linearity of Air-Biased Coherent Detection for Terahertz Time-Domain Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tianwu; Iwaszczuk, Krzysztof; Wrisberg, Emil Astrup; Denning, Emil Vosmar; Jepsen, Peter Uhd

    2016-06-01

    The performance of air-biased coherent detection (ABCD) in a broadband two-color laser-induced air plasma system for terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) has been investigated. Fundamental parameters of the ABCD detection, including signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), dynamic range (DR), and linearity of detection have been characterized. Moreover, the performance of a photomultiplier tube (PMT) and an avalanche photodiode (APD) as photodetector in the ABCD have been compared. We have observed nonlinear behavior of PMT detector, which leads to artificial gain factor in TDS spectroscopy. The APD turns out to have superior linearity and three times higher dynamic compared to the PMT.

  19. Time to End the Bias towards Inclusive Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Runswick-Cole, Katherine

    2011-01-01

    The UK coalition Government's call to end the "bias" towards inclusion represents a shift in "policy speak" as the new administration attempts to re-narrate special education by putting forward a "reasonable and sensible" solution to the "problem of inclusion". However, implicit in the call is the assumption that there has, in fact, been a "bias…

  20. The influence of referees' expertise, gender, motivation, and time constraints on decisional bias against women.

    PubMed

    Souchon, Nicolas; Livingstone, Andrew G; Maio, Gregory R

    2013-12-01

    The influence of player gender on referees' decision making was experimentally investigated. In Experiment 1, including 145 male handball referees, we investigated (a) the influence of referees' level of expertise on their decisional biases against women and (b) the referees' gender stereotypes. Results revealed that biases against women were powerful regardless of the referees' level of expertise and that male referees' stereotype toward female players tends to be negative. In Experiment 2, including 115 sport science students, we examined the influence of the participants' gender, motivation to control bias, and time constraints on gender bias. Results indicated that participants' gender had no impact on gender bias and that participants were able to reduce this bias in conditions in which they were motivated to control the bias. PMID:24334320

  1. Removing Satellite Equatorial Crossing Time Biases from the OLR and HRC Datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waliser, Duane E.; Zhou, Wufeng

    1997-09-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the impacts from satellite equatorial crossing time (ECT) changes on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and highly reflective cloud (HRC) datasets and to design appropriate and robust methods to remove these satellite-dependent biases. The OLR record covers the period from June 1974 to July 1996 and is on a 2.5° grid extending from 30°S to 30°N over the global Tropics. The HRC record covers the period from January 1971 to December 1987 and is on a 2° grid extending from 25°S to 25°N over the global Tropics. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (REOF) is performed on both the monthly OLR and HRC anomalies to help distinguish between artificial modes of variability and those associated with real variability.Results from the analysis show that significant errors are introduced by changes in the satellite ECT, and they appear differently in the two datasets. The primary satellite-related bias in the OLR appears as the fourth REOF mode, which accounts for 4.4% of the OLR anomaly variance. Its spatial pattern exhibits a strong surface signature over land, with the opposite sign over many of the deep convective regions of the ocean. During some periods, these biases result in widespread errors of over 10 W m2, which are sustained for several months to over a year. In other cases, the transition between satellites induces abrupt, artificial changes in the OLR as high as 16 W m2. In the HRC, the satellite-related bias appears as the leading two REOF modes, which account for 13.1% of the HRC anomaly variance. The spatial patterns of the HRC biases are indicative of an overall change in the mean climatological convection pattern. The above results can be understood by considering the sampling and radiometric characteristics of the OLR and HRC datasets.To remove the satellite ECT biases, the REOF time series of the satellite-related modes are modified by using the detailed knowledge of the satellite ECTs so that only

  2. Reducing bias and analyzing variability in the time-left procedure.

    PubMed

    Trujano, R Emmanuel; Orduña, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    The time-left procedure was designed to evaluate the psychophysical function for time. Although previous results indicated a linear relationship, it is not clear what role the observed bias toward the time-left option plays in this procedure and there are no reports of how variability changes with predicted indifference. The purposes of this experiment were to reduce bias experimentally, and to contrast the difference limen (a measure of variability around indifference) with predictions from scalar expectancy theory (linear timing) and behavioral economic model (logarithmic timing). A control group of 6 rats performed the original time-left procedure with C=60 s and S=5, 10,…, 50, 55 s, whereas a no-bias group of 6 rats performed the same conditions in a modified time-left procedure in which only a single response per choice trial was allowed. Results showed that bias was reduced for the no-bias group, observed indifference grew linearly with predicted indifference for both groups, and difference limen and Weber ratios decreased as expected indifference increased for the control group, which is consistent with linear timing, whereas for the no-bias group they remained constant, consistent with logarithmic timing. Therefore, the time-left procedure generates results consistent with logarithmic perceived time once bias is experimentally reduced. PMID:25659914

  3. Fixation Time is a Sensitive Measure of Cocaine Cue Attentional Bias

    PubMed Central

    Marks, Katherine R.; Roberts, Walter; Stoops, William W.; Pike, Erika; Fillmore, Mark T.; Rush, Craig R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Attentional bias has been demonstrated to a variety of substances. Evidence suggests that fixation time is a more direct measure of attentional bias than response time. The aims of this experiment were to demonstrate that fixation time during the visual probe task is a sensitive and stable measure of cocaine cue attentional bias in cocaine using adults compared to controls. Design A between-subject, repeated-measures experiment. Setting An outpatient research unit. Participants Fifteen cocaine using and fifteen non-cocaine-using adults recruited from the community. Measurements Participants completed a visual probe task with eye tracking and a modified Stroop during two experimental sessions. Findings A significant interaction between cue type and group (F = 13.5; P = 0.001) indicated that cocaine users, but not controls, displayed an attentional bias to cocaine-related images as measured by fixation time. There were no changes in the magnitude of attentional bias across sessions (F = 3.4; P = 0.08) and attentional bias correlated with self-reported lifetime cocaine use (r = 0.64, P = 0.01). Response time on the visual probe (F = 1.1; P = 0.3) as well as on the modified Stroop (F = 0.1; P = 0.72) failed to detect an attentional bias. Conclusions Fixation time on cocaine-related stimuli (propensity to remain focused on the stimulus) is a sensitive and stable measure of cocaine cue attentional bias in cocaine-using adults. PMID:24894879

  4. Improving Order Lead Time: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villarreal, Bernardo; Salido, Lucy

    2009-01-01

    A fundamental challenge of globally competing companies is to increase their level of customer satisfaction, by devising and implementing strategies aimed at providing better price, quality, and service. This paper describes the efforts of a Mexican company to achieve this goal, and in particular, with the need to decrease order lead time…

  5. Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Dealing With Immortal Time Bias in Drug Effectiveness Studies.

    PubMed

    Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Gustafson, Paul; Petkau, John; Tremlett, Helen

    2016-08-15

    In time-to-event analyses of observational studies of drug effectiveness, incorrect handling of the period between cohort entry and first treatment exposure during follow-up may result in immortal time bias. This bias can be eliminated by acknowledging a change in treatment exposure status with time-dependent analyses, such as fitting a time-dependent Cox model. The prescription time-distribution matching (PTDM) method has been proposed as a simpler approach for controlling immortal time bias. Using simulation studies and theoretical quantification of bias, we compared the performance of the PTDM approach with that of the time-dependent Cox model in the presence of immortal time. Both assessments revealed that the PTDM approach did not adequately address immortal time bias. Based on our simulation results, another recently proposed observational data analysis technique, the sequential Cox approach, was found to be more useful than the PTDM approach (Cox: bias = -0.002, mean squared error = 0.025; PTDM: bias = -1.411, mean squared error = 2.011). We applied these approaches to investigate the association of β-interferon treatment with delaying disability progression in a multiple sclerosis cohort in British Columbia, Canada (Long-Term Benefits and Adverse Effects of Beta-Interferon for Multiple Sclerosis (BeAMS) Study, 1995-2008). PMID:27455963

  6. Lax decision criteria lead to negativity bias: evidence from the emotional stroop task.

    PubMed

    Liu, Guofang; Xin, Ziqiang; Lin, Chongde

    2014-06-01

    Negativity bias means that negative information is usually given more emphasis than comparable positive information. Under signal detection theory, recent research found that people more frequently and incorrectly identify negative task-related words as having been presented originally than positive words, even when they were not presented. That is, people have lax decision criteria for negative words. However, the response biases for task-unrelated negative words and for emotionally important words are still unclear. This study investigated response bias for these two kinds of words. Study 1 examined the response bias for task-unrelated negative words using an emotional Stroop task. Proportions of correct recognition to negative and positive words were assessed by non-parametric signal detection analysis. Participants have lower (i.e., more lax) decision criteria for task-unrelated negative words than for positive words. Study 2 supported and expanded this result by investigating participants' response bias for highly emotional words. Participants have lower decision criteria for highly emotional words than for less emotional words. Finally, possible evolutionary sources of the response bias were discussed. PMID:25074310

  7. Naturally Biased? In Search for Reaction Time Evidence for a Natural Number Bias in Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vamvakoussi, Xenia; Van Dooren, Wim; Verschaffel, Lieven

    2012-01-01

    A major source of errors in rational number tasks is the inappropriate application of natural number rules. We hypothesized that this is an instance of intuitive reasoning and thus can persist in adults, even when they respond correctly. This was tested by means of a reaction time method, relying on a dual process perspective that differentiates…

  8. Time and Causation in Discourse: Temporal Proximity, Implicit Causality, and Re-mention Biases.

    PubMed

    Dery, Jeruen E; Bittner, Dagmar

    2016-08-01

    Using referential processing in discourse featuring implicit causality verbs as a test case, we demonstrate how a discourse's causal and temporal dimensions interact. We show that referential processing is affected by multiple discourse biases, and that these biases do not have uniform effects. In three discourse continuation experiments, we show that the bias to re-mention a particular referent in discourse involving implicit causality verbs is not only affected by the verb's implicit causality bias, but also by the discourse's temporal structure, which at times, can even override the implicit causality bias. Our results add to the growing number of studies that show how various discourse dimensions interact in discourse processing. PMID:26058497

  9. Possible bias in tree-ring time series due to mortality

    SciTech Connect

    Lucier, A A; Warnick, W L; Hyink, D M

    1989-07-01

    This article discusses the possible bias in tree-ring time series studies extending from the year of sample collection to a prepollution period. The authors hypothesizes that normal mortality (i.e., mortality not associated with sudden disturbance) can cause reduced tree ring widths in years preceding actual tree death and produce a bias toward smaller and more variable ring widths at the end of the tree-ring time series.

  10. Timing group delay and differential code bias corrections for BeiDou positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Fei; Zhang, Xiaohong; Wang, Jinling

    2015-05-01

    This article first clearly figures out the relationship between parameters of timing group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) for BDS, and demonstrates the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice. The TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various occasions for BDS positioning, and such models have been evaluated by real triple-frequency datasets. To test the effectiveness of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) tests are carried out for BDS signals with different schemes. Furthermore, the influence of differential code biases on BDS positioning estimates such as coordinates, receiver clock biases, tropospheric delays and carrier phase ambiguities is investigated comprehensively. Comparative analysis show that the unmodeled differential code biases degrade the performance of BDS SPP by a factor of two or more, whereas the estimates of PPP are subject to varying degrees of influences. For SPP, the accuracy of dual-frequency combinations is slightly worse than that of single-frequency, and they are much more sensitive to the differential code biases, particularly for the B2B3 combination. For PPP, the uncorrected differential code biases are mostly absorbed into the receiver clock bias and carrier phase ambiguities and thus resulting in a much longer convergence time. Even though the influence of the differential code biases could be mitigated over time and comparable positioning accuracy could be achieved after convergence, it is suggested to properly handle with the differential code biases since it is vital for PPP convergence and integer ambiguity resolution.

  11. Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation.

    PubMed

    Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

    2015-09-18

    Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

  12. Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation

    PubMed Central

    Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

    2015-01-01

    Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

  13. The induction time in the electrocrystallization of lead chloride and lead sulphate on an amalgamated lead electrode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torrent, Joan; Rodriguez, Rafael; Sluyters, J. H.

    1993-07-01

    The induction time in the electrocrystallization of lead chloride and lead sulphate on a lead amalgam electrode, determined from the observation of the light scattered by the electrode surface, has been treated according to the well known nucleation models. The analysis shows that the atomistic model is more realistic than the classical model. The critical nuclei size ranges between 0 and 1 growth unit.

  14. A nesting model for bias correction of variability at multiple time scales in general circulation model precipitation simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impact assessments of water resources systems require simulations of precipitation and evaporation that exhibit distributional and persistence attributes similar to the historical record. Specifically, there is a need to ensure general circulation model (GCM) simulations of rainfall for the current climate exhibit low-frequency variability that is consistent with observed data. Inability to represent low-frequency variability in precipitation and flow leads to biased estimates of the security offered by water resources systems in a warmer climate. This paper presents a method to postprocess GCM precipitation simulations by imparting correct distributional and persistence attributes, resulting in sequences that are representative of observed records across a range of time scales. The proposed approach is named nesting bias correction (NBC), the rationale being to correct distributional and persistence bias from fine to progressively longer time scales. In the results presented here, distributional attributes have been represented by order 1 and 2 moments with persistence represented by lag 1 autocorrelation coefficients at monthly and annual time scales. The NBC method was applied to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mk3.5 and MIROC 3.2 hires rainfall simulations for Australia. It was found that the nesting method worked well to correct means, standard deviations, and lag 1 autocorrelations when the biases in the raw GCM outputs were not too large. While the bias correction improves the representation of distributional and persistence attributes at the time scales considered, there is room for representation of longer-term persistence by extending to time scales longer than a year.

  15. Biasing the pacemaker in the behavioral theory of timing

    PubMed Central

    Bizo, Lewis A.; White, K. Geoffrey

    1995-01-01

    In the behavioral theory of timing, pacemaker rate is determined by overall rate of reinforcement. A two-alternative free-operant psychophysical procedure was employed to investigate whether pacemaker period was also sensitive to the differential rate of reinforcement. Responding on a left key during the first 25 s and on a right key during the second 25 s of a 50-s trial was reinforced at variable intervals, and variable-interval schedule values during the two halves of the trials were varied systematically. Responding on the right key during the first 25 s and on the left key during the second 25 s was not reinforced. Estimates of pacemaker period were derived from fits of a function predicted by the behavioral theory of timing to right-key response proportions in consecutive 5-s bins of the 50-s trial. Estimates of pacemaker period were shortest when the differential reinforcer rate most strongly favored right-key responses, and were longest when the differential reinforcer rate most strongly favored left-key responses. The results were consistent with the conclusion that pacemaker rate is influenced by relative reinforcer rate. PMID:16812769

  16. Bias Corrections for Regional Estimates of the Time-averaged Geomagnetic Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Constable, C.; Johnson, C. L.

    2009-05-01

    We assess two sources of bias in the time-averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and paleosecular variation (PSV): inadequate temporal sampling, and the use of unit vectors in deriving temporal averages of the regional geomagnetic field. For the first temporal sampling question we use statistical resampling of existing data sets to minimize and correct for bias arising from uneven temporal sampling in studies of the time- averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and its paleosecular variation (PSV). The techniques are illustrated using data derived from Hawaiian lava flows for 0-5~Ma: directional observations are an updated version of a previously published compilation of paleomagnetic directional data centered on ± 20° latitude by Lawrence et al./(2006); intensity data are drawn from Tauxe & Yamazaki, (2007). We conclude that poor temporal sampling can produce biased estimates of TAF and PSV, and resampling to appropriate statistical distribution of ages reduces this bias. We suggest that similar resampling should be attempted as a bias correction for all regional paleomagnetic data to be used in TAF and PSV modeling. The second potential source of bias is the use of directional data in place of full vector data to estimate the average field. This is investigated for the full vector subset of the updated Hawaiian data set. Lawrence, K.P., C.G. Constable, and C.L. Johnson, 2006, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q07007, DOI 10.1029/2005GC001181. Tauxe, L., & Yamazkai, 2007, Treatise on Geophysics,5, Geomagnetism, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Chapter 13,p509

  17. Time Course of Attentional Bias in Anxiety: Emotion and Gender Specificity

    PubMed Central

    Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Silton, Rebecca Levin; Edgar, J. Christopher; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Miller, Gregory A.

    2011-01-01

    Anxiety is characterized by cognitive biases, including attentional bias to emotional (especially threatening) stimuli. Accounts differ on the time course of attention to threat, but the literature generally confounds emotional valence and arousal and overlooks gender effects, both addressed in the present study. Nonpatients high in self-reported anxious apprehension, anxious arousal, or neither completed an emotion-word Stroop task during ERP recording. Hypotheses differentiated time course of preferential attention to emotional stimuli. Individuals high in anxious apprehension and anxious arousal showed distinct early ERP evidence of preferential processing of emotionally arousing stimuli along with some evidence for gender differences in processing. Healthy controls showed gender differences at both early and later processing stages. The conjunction of valence, arousal, and gender is critical in the time course of attentional bias. PMID:19863758

  18. Inhomogeneities in bias-corrected precipitation time-series over Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabanov, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Inhomogeneities in climate time series of bias-corrected precipitation over Russia are analyzed. During XX century in the USSR there was several changes in precipitation measurement procedures, which caused inhomogeneities in precipitation time-series. Two precipitation datasets are under investigation: the original one (without correction procedures and wetting correction), and the other - undergone the bias-correction procedure following the full empirical correction model of precipitation gauge data (The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory monthly datasets; Golubev, 2000; Bogdanova, 2008). Three homogeneity tests were applied for annual sums to detect the breaks: the standard normal homogeneity test (Alexandersson, 1986), the Buishand range test (Buishand, 1982) and the Pettitt test (Pettitt, 1979). The artifact inhomogeneities were detected not only in original dataset, where it was expected, especially after 1966, when the precipitation collecting method was modified, but also in bias-corrected time series. Most of breaks appear in 1950-s, when new gauges with Tretyakov wind shield were installed all over the observation hydrometeorological network of the USSR. Although all basic systematic measurement errors of precipitation gauges were excluded from bias-corrected dataset, homogeneity tests detect breaks. After 1966-1967, when wetting correction usage was started and the number of measurements was increased from 2 to 4 per day, and near 1986, when the number of measurements decreased from 4 to 2 per day, homogeneity tests also show biases. In the early 1970-s there were also changes in wind speed measurement procedure, which could cause breaks in corrected precipitation datasets (full model uses wind speed as a parameter). The percent of determined breaks (5% significant level), detected at least by two tests, is near 50% for original dataset and near 30% for bias-corrected dataset. So, even bias-corrected precipitation dataset over Russia should be checked

  19. Magnetic switching time of a Stoner-Wohlfarth particle in a perpendicular bias field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Dong

    This thesis studies magnetic switching of a Stoner-Wholfarth particle. The particle is characterized by a uniaxial magnetic anisotropy, and the magnetic field driving the switching is applied along the anisotropy axis. In addition, a constant small bias field is applied perpendicular to the easy axis. The dynamics of the magnetic moment are studied numerically by solving the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. Numeric results obtained without any approximations are then compared to the analytic theory of switching time in a perpendicular bias field. A good correspondence between the approximate analytic and exact numeric values of the switching time is observed in a wide parameter region.

  20. Real-time estimation of mean field bias in radar rainfall data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D.-J.; Breidenbach, J. P.; Johnson, E. R.

    1999-10-01

    To reduce systematic errors in radar rainfall data used for operational hydrologic forecasting, the precipitation estimation stream in the National Weather Service (NWS) uses procedures that estimate mean field bias in real time. Being a multiplicative correction over a very large area, bias adjustment has a huge impact, particularly on volumetric estimation of rainwater, and hence performance of the procedure is extremely important to quantitative hydrologic forecasting using radar rainfall data. In this paper, we describe a new procedure for real-time estimation of mean field bias in WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar—1988 Doppler version) rainfall products. Based largely on operational experience of the existing procedures in NWS, the proposed procedure is intended to be unbiased, parsimonious, and intuitive. To evaluate the procedure, true validation is performed using hourly rain gage and WSR-88D rainfall data from Tulsa and Twin Lakes, Oklahoma.

  1. Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

    2013-10-01

    Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

  2. Recurrent positive selection and heterogeneous codon usage bias events leading to coexistence of divergent pigeon circoviruses.

    PubMed

    Liao, Pei-Chun; Wang, Kung-Kai; Tsai, Shinn-Shyong; Liu, Hung-Jen; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chuang, Kuo-Pin

    2015-08-01

    The capsid genes from 14 pigeon circovirus (PiCV) sequences, collected from Taiwan between 2009 and 2010, were sequenced and compared with 14 PiCV capsid gene sequences from GenBank. Based on pairwise comparison, PiCV strains from Taiwan shared 73.9-100% nucleotide identity and 72-100% amino acid identity with those of the 14 reported PiCV sequences. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Taiwanese PiCV isolates can be grouped into two clades: clade 1 comprising isolates from Belgium, Australia, USA, Italy and China, and clade 2 showing close relation to isolates from Germany and France. Recurrent positive selection was detected in clade 1 PiCV lineages, which may contribute to the diversification of predominant PiCV sequences in Taiwan. Further observations suggest that synonymous codon usage variations between PiCV clade 1 and clade 2 may reflect the adaptive divergence on translation efficiency of capsid genes in infectious hosts. Variation in selective pressures acting on the evolutionary divergence and codon usage bias of both clades explains the regional coexistence of virus sequences congeners prevented from competitive exclusion within an island such as Taiwan. Our genotyping results also provide insight into the aetiological agents of PiCV outbreak in Taiwan and we present a comparative analysis of the central coding region of PiCV genome. From the sequence comparison results of 28 PiCVs which differs in regard to the geographical origin and columbid species, we identified conserved regions within the capsid gene that are likely to be suitable for primer selection and vaccine development. PMID:25911731

  3. Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andres; Bloch, Michael H.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method: We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years of age with major depressive disorder. Our main…

  4. Attention Biases to Threat Link Behavioral Inhibition to Social Withdrawal over Time in Very Young Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perez-Edgar, Koraly; Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C.; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; White, Lauren K.; Henderson, Heather A.; Degnan, Kathryn A.; Hane, Amie A.; Pine, Daniel S.; Fox, Nathan A.

    2011-01-01

    Behaviorally inhibited children display a temperamental profile characterized by social withdrawal and anxious behaviors. Previous research, focused largely on adolescents, suggests that attention biases to threat may sustain high levels of behavioral inhibition (BI) over time, helping link early temperament to social outcomes. However, no prior…

  5. Exploring the influential factors in incident clearance time: Disentangling causation from self-selection bias.

    PubMed

    Ding, Chuan; Ma, Xiaolei; Wang, Yinhai; Wang, Yunpeng

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the relationships between influential factors and incident clearance time is crucial to make effective countermeasures for incident management agencies. Although there have been a certain number of achievements on incident clearance time modeling, limited effort is made to investigate the relative role of incident response time and its self-selection in influencing the clearance time. To fill this gap, this study uses the endogenous switching model to explore the influential factors in incident clearance time, and aims to disentangle causation from self-selection bias caused by response process. Under the joint two-stage model framework, the binary probit model and switching regression model are formulated for both incident response time and clearance time, respectively. Based on the freeway incident data collected in Washington State, full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method is utilized to estimate the endogenous switching model parameters. Significant factors affecting incident response time and clearance time can be identified, including incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational attributes. The estimate results reveal the influential effects of incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational factors on incident response time and clearance time. In addition, the causality of incident response time itself and its self-selection correction on incident clearance time are found to be indispensable. These findings suggest that the causal effect of response time on incident clearance time will be overestimated if the self-selection bias is not considered. PMID:26373988

  6. Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andrés; Bloch, Michael H.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine if there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized, placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years old with major depressive disorder. Our main outcomes were (1) time to publication of positive versus negative trials, and (2) proportion of treatment responders in trials with standard (< 3 years after study completion) versus delayed publication. Results We identified 15 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SRIs for pediatric depression. Trials with negative findings had a significantly longer time to publication (median years ± standard deviation = 4.2 ±1.9) than trials with positive findings (2.2 ±0.9; log-rank χ2 = 4.35, p = 0.037). The estimated efficacy in trials with standard publication time (number needed to treat = 7, 95% CI: 5 – 11) was significantly greater than those with delayed publication (17, 95% CI: 9 – ∞; χ2 = 4.98, p = 0.025). The inflation-adjusted impact factor of journals for published trials with positive (15.33 ±11.01) and negative results (7.54 ±7.90) did not statistically differ (t = 1.4, df = 10, p = 0.17). Conclusions Despite a small number of trials of SRIs for pediatric antidepressants we found a significant evidence of time-lag bias in the publication of findings. This time-lag bias altered the perceived efficacy of pediatric antidepressants in the medical literature. Time-lag bias is not unique to child psychiatry and reflects a larger problem in scientific publishing. PMID:21156271

  7. Resonant magnetoelectric coupling in trilayers of ferromagnetic alloys and piezoelectric lead zirconate titanate: The influence of bias magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, G.; de Vreugd, C. P.; Laletin, V. M.; Paddubnaya, N.; Bichurin, M. I.; Petrov, V. M.; Filippov, D. A.

    2005-05-01

    We present the first data and theory for the bias magnetic field dependence of magnetoelectric coupling in the electromechanical resonance (EMR) region for ferromagnetic-piezoelectric heterostructures. Trilayers of Permendur, a Co-Fe-V alloy, and lead zirconate titanate were studied. Measurements of the magnetoelectric (ME) voltage coefficient αE indicate a strong ME coupling in the low-frequency range and a giant ME effect due to EMR at 200-300kHz for radial modes and at ˜2.7MHz for thickness modes. Data were obtained for the bias field H dependence of two key parameters, the EMR frequency fr and the ME coefficient αE,R at resonance. With increasing H , an increase in fr and a rapid rise and fall in αE,R are measured. In our model we consider two mechanisms for the magnetic field influence on ME interactions: (i) a shift in the EMR frequency due to changes in compliance coefficients ( ΔE effect) and (ii) variation in the piezomagnetic coefficient that manifests as a change in αE,R . Theoretical profiles of αE vs frequency and estimates of frequency shift based on the ΔE effect are in excellent agreement with the data.

  8. Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

    PubMed Central

    Deaner, Robert O.; Lowen, Aaron; Cobley, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive. PMID:23460902

  9. Uniform-acceptance force-bias Monte Carlo method with time scale to study solid-state diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mees, Maarten J.; Pourtois, Geoffrey; Neyts, Erik C.; Thijsse, Barend J.; Stesmans, André

    2012-04-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) methods have a long-standing history as partners of molecular dynamics (MD) to simulate the evolution of materials at the atomic scale. Among these techniques, the uniform-acceptance force-bias Monte Carlo (UFMC) method [G. Dereli, Mol. Simul.10.1080/08927029208022490 8, 351 (1992)] has recently attracted attention [M. Timonova , Phys. Rev. BPRBMDO1098-012110.1103/PhysRevB.81.144107 81, 144107 (2010)] thanks to its apparent capacity of being able to simulate physical processes in a reduced number of iterations compared to classical MD methods. The origin of this efficiency remains, however, unclear. In this work we derive a UFMC method starting from basic thermodynamic principles, which leads to an intuitive and unambiguous formalism. The approach includes a statistically relevant time step per Monte Carlo iteration, showing a significant speed-up compared to MD simulations. This time-stamped force-bias Monte Carlo (tfMC) formalism is tested on both simple one-dimensional and three-dimensional systems. Both test-cases give excellent results in agreement with analytical solutions and literature reports. The inclusion of a time scale, the simplicity of the method, and the enhancement of the time step compared to classical MD methods make this method very appealing for studying the dynamics of many-particle systems.

  10. Time course of attentional bias for gambling information in problem gambling

    PubMed Central

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Bechara, Antoine; Laloyaux, Cédric; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    There is a wealth of evidence showing enhanced attention towards drug-related information (i.e. attentional bias) in substance abusers. However, little is known about attentional bias in deregulated behaviors without substance use such as abnormal gambling. This study examined whether problem gamblers (PrG, as assessed through self-reported gambling-related craving and gambling dependence severity) exhibit attentional bias for gambling-related cues. Forty PrG and 35 control participants performed a change detection task using the flicker paradigm, in which two images differing in only one aspect are repeatedly flashed on the screen until the participant is able to report the changing item. In our study, the changing item was either neutral or related to gambling. Eye movements were recorded, which made it possible to measure both initial orienting of attention as well as its maintenance on gambling information. Direct (eye-movements) and indirect (change in detection latency) measures of attention in individuals with problematic gambling behaviors suggested the occurrence of both engagement and of maintenance attentional biases towards gambling-related visual cues. Compared to non-problematic gamblers, PrG exhibited (1) faster reaction times to gambling-cues as compared to neutral cues, (2) higher percentage of initial saccades directed toward gambling pictures; (3) an increased fixation duration and fixation count on gambling pictures. In the PrG group, measures of gambling-related attentional bias were not associated with craving for gambling and gambling dependence severity. Theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:21688874

  11. Real-time video compression using entropy-biased ANN codebooks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahalt, Stanley C.; Fowler, James E.

    1994-03-01

    We describe hardware that has been built to compress video in real time using full-search vector quantization (VQ). This architecture implements a differential-vector-quantization (DVQ) algorithm which features entropy-biased codebooks designed using an artificial neural network. A special-purpose digital associative memory, the VAMPIRE chip, performs the VQ processing. We describe the DVQ algorithm, its adaptations for sampled NTSC composite- color video, and details of its hardware implementation. We conclude by presenting results drawn from real-time operation of the DVQ hardware.

  12. Ultrafast time-resolved spectroscopy of lead halide perovskite films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Idowu, Mopelola A.; Yau, Sung H.; Varnavski, Oleg; Goodson, Theodore

    2015-09-01

    Recently, lead halide perovskites which are organic-inorganic hybrid structures, have been discovered to be highly efficient as light absorbers. Herein, we show the investigation of the excited state dynamics and emission properties of non-stoichiometric precursor formed lead halide perovskites grown by interdiffusion method using steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopic measurements. The influence of the different ratios of the non-stoichiometric precursor solution was examined. The observed photoluminescence properties were correlated with the femtosecond transient absorption measurements.

  13. Methodological challenges to control for immortal time bias in addressing drug effects in type 2 diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Xi-Lin; Huo, Xiao-Xu; Chan, Juliana CN

    2015-01-01

    There are multiple biases in using observational studies to examine treatment effects such as those from prevalent drug users, immortal time and drug indications. We used renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors and statins as reference drugs with proven efficacies in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and examined their effectiveness in the prospective Hong Kong Diabetes Registry using adjustment methods proposed in the literature. Using time-dependent exposures to drug treatments yielded greatly inflated hazard ratios (HR) regarding the treatment effects of these drugs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes. These errors were probably due to changing indications to use these drugs during follow up periods, especially at the time of drug commencement making time-dependent analysis extremely problematic. Using time-fixed analysis with exclusion of immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of RAS inhibitors for CVD was comparable to that in RCT. The result supported the use of the Registry for performing pharmacoepidemiological analysis which revealed an attenuated low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol related cancer risk with RAS inhibitors. On the other hand, time-fixed analysis with including immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of statins for CVD was similar to that in the RCT. Our results highlight the complexity and difficulty in removing these biases. We call for validations of the methods to cope with immortal time and drug use indications before applying them to particular research questions, so to avoid making erroneous conclusions. PMID:26413484

  14. Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: a re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2011-05-01

    This paper shows that the meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy reported by Attewell, Glase, and McFadden (Accident Analysis and Prevention 2001, 345-352) was influenced by publication bias and time-trend bias that was not controlled for. As a result, the analysis reported inflated estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets. This paper presents a re-analysis of the study. The re-analysis included: (1) detecting and adjusting for publication bias by means of the trim-and-fill method; (2) ensuring the inclusion of all published studies by means of continuity corrections of estimates of effect rely on zero counts; (3) detecting and trying to account for a time-trend bias in estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets; (4) updating the study by including recently published studies evaluating the effects of bicycle helmets. The re-analysis shows smaller safety benefits associated with the use of bicycle helmets than the original study. PMID:21376924

  15. A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Shrestha, Durga Lal; Wang, Q. J.; Enever, David; Hapuarachchi, Prasantha; Tuteja, Narendra K.

    2014-11-01

    This study describes a System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) designed to forecast streamflows to lead times of 9 days. SCHEF is intended to support optimal management of water resources for consumptive and environmental purposes and ultimately to support the management of impending floods. Deterministic rainfall forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are post-processed using a Bayesian joint probability model to correct biases and quantify uncertainty. Realistic temporal and spatial characteristics are instilled in the rainfall forecast ensemble with the Schaake shuffle. The ensemble rainfall forecasts are then used as inputs to the GR4H hydrological model to produce streamflow forecasts. A hydrological error correction is applied to ensure forecasts transit smoothly from recent streamflow observations. SCHEF forecasts streamflows skilfully for a range of hydrological and climate conditions. Skill is particularly evident in forecasts of streamflows at lead times of 1-6 days. Forecasts perform best in temperate perennially flowing rivers, while forecasts are poorest in intermittently flowing rivers. The poor streamflow forecasts in intermittent rivers are primarily the result of poor rainfall forecasts, rather than an inadequate representation of hydrological processes. Forecast uncertainty becomes more reliably quantified at longer lead times; however there is considerable scope for improving the reliability of streamflow forecasts at all lead times. Additionally, we show that the choice of forecast time-step can influence forecast accuracy: forecasts generated at a 1-h time-step tend to be more accurate than at longer time-steps (e.g. 1-day). This is largely because at shorter time-steps the hydrological error correction is able to correct streamflow forecasts with more recent information, rather than the ability of GR4H to simulate hydrological processes better at shorter time-steps. SCHEF will form the

  16. Time discounting, present biases, and health-related behaviors: Evidence from Japan.

    PubMed

    Kang, Myong-Il; Ikeda, Shinsuke

    2016-05-01

    Human health is considered the outcome of intertemporal choices under tradeoffs between a small immediate reward and a larger delayed reward. Health-related behaviors are thus affected by personal time preferences. Based on an Internet-based survey conducted on Japanese adults, we contribute to the literature by incorporating the multifaceted nature of time discounting in an analysis of the associations between time preference and health-related behaviors. We find that, first, less patient respondents tend to exhibit worse health-related attributes. Second, present bias, which is measured by the degree of declining impatience, is positively associated with unhealthy behaviors for naïve respondents, who are unaware of their self-control problem. Third, such associations cannot be found in sophisticates, who are aware of that. As a policy implication, direct intervention policies, including "nudging," are more effective than a commitment device provision in correcting the unhealthy behaviors due to present bias. Fourth, the sign effect, wherein future losses are discounted at a lower rate than future gains, is negatively associated with unhealthy outcomes, although at weak statistical significance levels. PMID:26851396

  17. Symmetrically biased T/R switches for NMR and MRI with microsecond dead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunner, David O.; Furrer, Lukas; Weiger, Markus; Baumberger, Werner; Schmid, Thomas; Reber, Jonas; Dietrich, Benjamin E.; Wilm, Bertram J.; Froidevaux, Romain; Pruessmann, Klaas P.

    2016-02-01

    For direct NMR detection and imaging of compounds with very short coherence life times the dead time between radio-frequency (RF) pulse and reception of the free induction decay (FID) is a major limiting factor. It is typically dominated by the transient and recovery times of currently available transmit-receive (T/R) switches and amplification chains. A novel PIN diode-based T/R switch topology is introduced allowing for fast switching by high bias transient currents but nevertheless producing a very low video leakage signal and insertion loss (0.5 dB). The low transient spike level in conjunction with the high isolation (75 dB) prevent saturation of the preamplifier entirely which consequently does not require time for recovery. Switching between transmission and reception is demonstrated within less than 1 μs in bench tests as well as in acquisitions of FIDs and zero echo time (ZTE) images with bandwidths up to 500 kHz at 7 T. Thereby the 2 kW switch exhibited a rise-time of 350 ns (10-99%) producing however a total video leakage of below 20 mV peak-to-peak and less than -89 dBm in-band. The achieved switching time renders the RF pulse itself the dominant contribution to the dead time in which a coherence cannot be observed, thus making pulsed NMR experiments almost time-optimal even for compounds with very short signal life times.

  18. Symmetrically biased T/R switches for NMR and MRI with microsecond dead time.

    PubMed

    Brunner, David O; Furrer, Lukas; Weiger, Markus; Baumberger, Werner; Schmid, Thomas; Reber, Jonas; Dietrich, Benjamin E; Wilm, Bertram J; Froidevaux, Romain; Pruessmann, Klaas P

    2016-02-01

    For direct NMR detection and imaging of compounds with very short coherence life times the dead time between radio-frequency (RF) pulse and reception of the free induction decay (FID) is a major limiting factor. It is typically dominated by the transient and recovery times of currently available transmit-receive (T/R) switches and amplification chains. A novel PIN diode-based T/R switch topology is introduced allowing for fast switching by high bias transient currents but nevertheless producing a very low video leakage signal and insertion loss (0.5dB). The low transient spike level in conjunction with the high isolation (75dB) prevent saturation of the preamplifier entirely which consequently does not require time for recovery. Switching between transmission and reception is demonstrated within less than 1μs in bench tests as well as in acquisitions of FIDs and zero echo time (ZTE) images with bandwidths up to 500kHz at 7T. Thereby the 2kW switch exhibited a rise-time of 350ns (10-99%) producing however a total video leakage of below 20mV peak-to-peak and less than -89dBm in-band. The achieved switching time renders the RF pulse itself the dominant contribution to the dead time in which a coherence cannot be observed, thus making pulsed NMR experiments almost time-optimal even for compounds with very short signal life times. PMID:26796113

  19. Resonance and decay phenomena lead to quantum mechanical time asymmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohm, A.; Bui, H. V.

    2013-04-01

    The states (Schrödinger picture) and observables (Heisenberg picture) in the standard quantum theory evolve symmetrically in time, given by the unitary group with time extending over -∞ < t < +∞. This time evolution is a mathematical consequence of the Hilbert space boundary condition for the dynamical differential equations. However, this unitary group evolution violates causality. Moreover, it does not solve an old puzzle of Wigner: How does one describe excited states of atoms which decay exponentially, and how is their lifetime τ related to the Lorentzian width Γ? These question can be answered if one replaces the Hilbert space boundary condition by new, Hardy space boundary conditions. These Hardy space boundary conditions allow for a distinction between states (prepared by a preparation apparatus) and observables (detected by a registration apparatus). The new Hardy space quantum theory is time asymmetric, i.e, the time evolution is given by the semigroup with t0 <= t < +∞, which predicts a finite "beginning of time" t0, where t0 is the ensemble of time at which each individual system has been prepared. The Hardy space axiom also leads to the new prediction: the width Γ and the lifetime τ are exactly related by τ = hslash/Γ.

  20. Psychometric properties of reaction time based experimental paradigms measuring anxiety-related information-processing biases in children.

    PubMed

    Brown, H M; Eley, T C; Broeren, S; Macleod, C; Rinck, M; Hadwin, J A; Lester, K J

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical frameworks highlight the importance of threat-related information-processing biases for understanding the emergence of anxiety in childhood. The psychometric properties of several tasks measuring these biases and their associations with anxiety were examined in an unselected sample of 9-year-old children (N=155). In each task, threat bias was assessed using bias scores reflecting task performance on threat versus non-threat conditions. Reliability was assessed using split-half and test-retest correlations of mean reaction times (RTs), accuracy and bias indices. Convergence between measures was also examined. Mean RTs showed substantial split-half and test-retest correlations. Bias score reliability coefficients were near zero and non-significant, suggesting poor reliability in children of this age. Additionally, associations between bias scores and anxiety were weak and inconsistent and performance between tasks showed little convergence. Bias scores from RT based paradigms in the current study lacked adequate psychometric properties for measuring individual differences in anxiety-related information-processing in children. PMID:24486916

  1. Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury.

    PubMed

    Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

    2016-02-01

    Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict AKI were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias, and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles), or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable, and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis, and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice. PMID:26398494

  2. Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict acute kidney injury were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles) or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice. PMID:26398494

  3. Time-scale bias in evidence for anthropogenic acceleration of soil erosion and floodplain accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willenbring, J. K.; Hoffmann, T.; Sadler, P.; Kaplan, J. O.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Erkens, G.; von Blanckenburg, F.

    2014-12-01

    The claim that humans modify the landscape more dramatically than any previous geological agent has impacts for river restoration, conservation and models of both nutrient- and carbon-cycling. This view of extreme sediment mobilization driven by human activities is largely based on data, which unfortunately are measured over discrepant timescales that can introduce bias. Comparing denudation rates discerned from cosmogenic nuclides as 'baseline' or 'natural' rates with continent-scale sediment export rates over modern timescales reveals that most cosmogenic nuclide-based erosion rates are faster than human-impacted rates of sediment yield [1]. One explanation for relatively low recent continental sediment yields is that the eroded sediment may be accumulating and stored for an uncertain duration in swelling floodplains and deltas. We present a global compilation of Holocene floodplain accumulation rates. Rates measured over the last ~100 years are faster than those averaged over ~1000 years, which in turn are faster than those for the last ~10000 years. Floodplain sediment accumulation measurements, however, are taken at discreet cores or bank exposures, and this introduces both temporal and spatial bias. Vertical accumulation rates are calculated by dividing thickness of sediment by the time-span of accumulation for discrete packages of sediment. Thus, time integrates from the present to a past datum provided by 14C measurements for buried organics (or other chronological tools). We argue that the pattern of rate increase in sedimentation over time is related to infilling behavior of all floodplains and not specifically tied to the supply of (anthropogenic) sediment. The apparent acceleration in sedimentation rates appears globally synchronous over 8000-year timescales, despite diachronous human and land use histories. Moreover, some rate acceleration pre-dates significant human land use. When the effect/bias of averaging time is accounted for, recent accumulation

  4. Sensitivity bias in the mass-radius distribution from transit timing variations and radial velocity measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, Jason H.

    2016-04-01

    Motivated by recent discussions, both in private and in the literature, we use a Monte Carlo simulation of planetary systems to investigate sources of bias in determining the mass-radius distribution of exoplanets for the two primary techniques used to measure planetary masses - radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs). We assert that mass measurements derived from these two methods are comparably reliable - as the physics underlying their respective signals is well understood. Nevertheless, their sensitivity to planet mass varies with the properties of the planets themselves. We find that for a given planet size, the RV method tends to find planets with higher mass while the sensitivity of TTVs is more uniform. This `sensitivity bias' implies that a complete census of TTV systems is likely to yield a more robust estimate of the mass-radius distribution provided there are not important physical differences between planets near and far from mean-motion resonance. We discuss differences in the sensitivity of the two methods with orbital period and system architecture, which may compound the discrepancies between them (e.g. short-period planets detectable by RVs may be more dense due to atmospheric loss). We advocate for continued mass measurements using both approaches as a means both to measure the masses of more planets and to identify potential differences in planet structure that may result from their dynamical and environmental histories.

  5. A Perceptual Pathway to Bias: Interracial Exposure Reduces Abrupt Shifts in Real-Time Race Perception That Predict Mixed-Race Bias.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Jonathan B; Pauker, Kristin; Sanchez, Diana T

    2016-04-01

    In two national samples, we examined the influence of interracial exposure in one's local environment on the dynamic process underlying race perception and its evaluative consequences. Using a mouse-tracking paradigm, we found in Study 1 that White individuals with low interracial exposure exhibited a unique effect of abrupt, unstable White-Black category shifting during real-time perception of mixed-race faces, consistent with predictions from a neural-dynamic model of social categorization and computational simulations. In Study 2, this shifting effect was replicated and shown to predict a trust bias against mixed-race individuals and to mediate the effect of low interracial exposure on that trust bias. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that interracial exposure shapes the dynamics through which racial categories activate and resolve during real-time perceptions, and these initial perceptual dynamics, in turn, may help drive evaluative biases against mixed-race individuals. Thus, lower-level perceptual aspects of encounters with racial ambiguity may serve as a foundation for mixed-race prejudice. PMID:26976082

  6. Reproducibility and day time bias correction of optoelectronic leg volumetry: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Leg edema is a common manifestation of various underlying pathologies. Reliable measurement tools are required to quantify edema and monitor therapeutic interventions. Aim of the present work was to investigate the reproducibility of optoelectronic leg volumetry over 3 weeks' time period and to eliminate daytime related within-individual variability. Methods Optoelectronic leg volumetry was performed in 63 hairdressers (mean age 45 ± 16 years, 85.7% female) in standing position twice within a minute for each leg and repeated after 3 weeks. Both lower leg (legBD) and whole limb (limbBF) volumetry were analysed. Reproducibility was expressed as analytical and within-individual coefficients of variance (CVA, CVW), and as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Results A total of 492 leg volume measurements were analysed. Both legBD and limbBF volumetry were highly reproducible with CVA of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Within-individual reproducibility of legBD and limbBF volumetry over a three weeks' period was high (CVW 1.3% for both; ICC 0.99 for both). At both visits, the second measurement revealed a significantly higher volume compared to the first measurement with a mean increase of 7.3 ml ± 14.1 (0.33% ± 0.58%) for legBD and 30.1 ml ± 48.5 ml (0.52% ± 0.79%) for limbBF volume. A significant linear correlation between absolute and relative leg volume differences and the difference of exact day time of measurement between the two study visits was found (P < .001). A therefore determined time-correction formula permitted further improvement of CVW. Conclusions Leg volume changes can be reliably assessed by optoelectronic leg volumetry at a single time point and over a 3 weeks' time period. However, volumetry results are biased by orthostatic and daytime-related volume changes. The bias for day-time related volume changes can be minimized by a time-correction formula. PMID:21974893

  7. Methods for bias reduction in time-series studies of particulate matter air pollution and mortality.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2007-04-15

    In many cities of the United States, measurements of ambient particulate matter air pollution (PM) are available only every sixth day. Time-series studies conducted in these cities that investigate the relationship between mortality and PM are restricted to using a single day's PM as the measure of PM exposure, rather than using measurements taken over several consecutive days. Studies showed that using a single-day PM as the measure of PM exposure can result in estimates that have a negative bias, sometimes in the order of over half of the value being estimated. In this article two methods are introduced that can be used to obtain estimates that can in some situations reduce the bias to negligible proportions when only every-sixth-day PM concentrations are available. Using one of these methods, the national average PM mortality effect estimates obtained for total mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively, correspond to 0.27% and 0.39% increases in mortality per 10-microg/m3 increment in PM. The corresponding effect estimates obtained using the single-day lag-1 PM concentration are 0.18% and 0.23%. The estimates obtained using the lag-1 PM concentration were the most widely reported results from the recent multicity National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) analyses. The more accurate estimates obtained from the methods introduced in this article will enable more accurate quantification of the increased incidence in mortality due to elevation in PM levels and the benefit of current or more stringent regulatory standards. PMID:17365620

  8. Lead

    MedlinePlus

    ... Lead Share Facebook Twitter Google+ Pinterest Contact Us Lead Poisoning is Preventable If your home was built before ... of the RRP rule. Read more . Learn about Lead Poisoning Prevention Week . Report Uncertified Contractors and Environmental Violations ...

  9. Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias When Using Medicare Prescription Drug Data

    PubMed Central

    Cook, Elizabeth A.; Schneider, Kathleen M; Chrischilles, Elizabeth; Brooks, John M

    2013-01-01

    Objective To describe the prevalence and correlates of unobservable medication exposure time, and to recommend approaches for minimizing bias, in studies using Medicare Part D data.. Sample 179,065 Medicare patients hospitalized for an AMI in 2007 or 2008. Methods We compared two methods for creating medication exposure observation periods using acute care discharge vs. post-acute care discharge dates. We examined options for increasing cohort sizes by requiring different thresholds for observable days, or by using as a covariate, in the observation period. We calculated the extent and health status correlates of unobserved Medicare Part D exposure time and examined its association with receipt of beta-blockers. Results 39% of patients had unobservable time during the 30 day exposure assessment period following acute care; they were significantly older, had more comorbidity and longer acute care stays, had worse 1-year survival, and were significantly less likely to be classified as beta-blocker users. Using the alternative exposure assessment window, only 29% of the sample had unobservable time, and differences between groups were less pronounced. Significant gains in sample size can be obtained by restricting or controlling for the number of observable days required in the exposure assessment period. Conclusions Unobservable exposure time is common among Medicare Part D beneficiaries, and they are often in worse health. To retain patients with unobservable exposure time, we recommend stratifying patients on receipt of post-acute facility-based care, calculating and using observable days as a covariate and, when appropriate, using the discharge date from contiguous post-acute facility care for beginning the exposure assessment period. PMID:24834364

  10. Do Young and Old Preschoolers Exhibit Response Bias Due to Different Mechanisms? Investigating Children's Response Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okanda, Mako; Itakura, Shoji

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies have suggested that younger preschoolers exhibit a yes bias due to underdeveloped cognitive abilities, whereas older preschoolers exhibit a response bias due to other factors. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the response latency to yes-no questions pertaining to familiar and unfamiliar objects in 3- to 6-year-olds. The…

  11. Lead

    MedlinePlus

    ... obvious symptoms, it frequently goes unrecognized. CDC’s Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program is committed to the Healthy People ... Lead Levels Information for Parents Tips for preventing lead poisoning About Us Overview of CDC’s Childhood Lead Poisoning ...

  12. Mean SST bias and variability at inter-annual and decadal time-scales in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Villamayor, Julian; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the south subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors have impacts on the variability but this is less understood. In this study we try to understand the relation between mean global SST biases and how models perform the variability at different time-scales. To this end, we calculate the SST variability modes for 18 models in the preindustrial control CMIP5 experiment. We first analyse the seasonality of those modes and the inter-model differences. Associated parameters are confronted with the mean SST bias variability among models, thus we conclude how realistic models simulate the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Preliminary results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the Inter-Decadal Pacific variability. Similar mean bias pattern has an effect on the skill for reproducing Pacific El Nino and Atlantic Nino modes. Finally an inter-model SST bias variability mode is found relating errors over the southern upwelling systems with cloud cover around 60S and equatorial precipitation shift. This mode is able to summarize some features in relation with inter-decadal to inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and thus represents a potential tool to understand the wider picture in relation to SST biases and future projections.

  13. The Magnitude of Time-Dependent Bias in the Estimation of Excess Length of Stay Attributable to Healthcare-Associated Infections.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Richard E; Nelson, Scott D; Khader, Karim; Perencevich, Eli L; Schweizer, Marin L; Rubin, Michael A; Graves, Nicholas; Harbarth, Stephan; Stevens, Vanessa W; Samore, Matthew H

    2015-09-01

    BACKGROUND Estimates of the excess length of stay (LOS) attributable to healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in which total LOS of patients with and without HAIs are biased because of failure to account for the timing of infection. Alternate methods that appropriately treat HAI as a time-varying exposure are multistate models and cohort studies, which match regarding the time of infection. We examined the magnitude of this time-dependent bias in published studies that compared different methodological approaches. METHODS We conducted a systematic review of the published literature to identify studies that report attributable LOS estimates using both total LOS (time-fixed) methods and either multistate models or matching patients with and without HAIs using the timing of infection. RESULTS Of the 7 studies that compared time-fixed methods to multistate models, conventional methods resulted in estimates of the LOS to HAIs that were, on average, 9.4 days longer or 238% greater than those generated using multistate models. Of the 5 studies that compared time-fixed methods to matching on timing of infection, conventional methods resulted in estimates of the LOS to HAIs that were, on average, 12.6 days longer or 139% greater than those generated by matching on timing of infection. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that estimates of the attributable LOS due to HAIs depend heavily on the methods used to generate those estimates. Overestimation of this effect can lead to incorrect assumptions of the likely cost savings from HAI prevention measures. PMID:26041436

  14. Stabilization of lead-contaminated soil saves time

    SciTech Connect

    Hasbach, A.

    1995-03-01

    The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) acquired property adjacent to a former battery-cracking facility. The soil contained extremely high levels of lead from past waste disposal activities. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) required WisDOT to perform a remedial investigation and take corrective action. WisDOT retained RMT Inc., Madison, Wisc., to do the work. RMT`s investigation discovered lead levels as high as 50,000 mg/kg in the soil. An action level of 500 mg/kg was negotiated with WDNR. A total of 11 acres exceeded this level; 7.5 acres contained lead exceeding 1,000 mg/kg. In some areas, contamination reached a depth of 12 feet, while in others lead was found only in the top 12 inches. A total of 55,000 cubic yards of soil required treatment. A dig and haul approach to remediation would have cost $200 to $300 per ton. Instead, RMT called for in situ treatment using a patented chemical mixture to tie the lead up in a stable and immobile compound. While it does not render the soil lead free, it does prevent the lead from leaching into nearby soil or groundwater.

  15. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias.

    PubMed

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes. PMID:26133999

  16. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes.

  17. Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes. PMID:26133999

  18. Sexual difference in juvenile-hormone titer in workers leads to sex-biased soldier differentiation in termites.

    PubMed

    Toga, Kouhei; Hanmoto, Shutaro; Suzuki, Ryutaro; Watanabe, Dai; Miura, Toru; Maekawa, Kiyoto

    2016-04-01

    In termites, the soldier caste, with its specialized defensive morphology, is one of the most important characteristics for sociality. Most of the basal termite species have both male and female soldiers, and the soldier sex ratio is almost equal or only slightly biased. However, in the apical lineages (especially family Termitidae), there are many species that have soldiers with strongly biased sex ratio. Generally in termites, since high juvenile hormone (JH) titer is required for soldier differentiation from a worker via a presoldier stage, it was hypothesized that the biased soldier-sex ratio was caused by differences in JH sensitivity and/or JH titer between male and female workers. Therefore, we focused on the presoldier differentiation and the worker JH titer in species with only male soldiers (Nasutitermes takasagoensis) and with both male and female soldiers (Reticulitermes speratus) in natural conditions. In the former species, there are four types of workers; male minor, male medium, female medium and female major workers, and presoldiers differentiate from male minor workers. First, we tried to artificially induce presoldiers from male and female workers. In N. takasagoensis, the presoldier differentiation rate and mortality was significantly higher in male minor workers. Morphological analyses showed that both male and female induced presoldiers possessed normal soldier-specific morphologies. It was suggested that female workers, from which soldiers do not differentiate under natural conditions, also maintained the physiological and developmental potential for soldier differentiation. In R. speratus, however, no differences were observed in solder differentiation rate and mortality between male and female workers. Second, the JH titers of each sex/type of workers were quantified by high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry in two different seasons (April and December). The results showed that, in N. takasagoensis, JH titer in male minor

  19. Biased Brownian ratcheting leads to pre-mRNA remodeling and capture prior to first-step splicing

    PubMed Central

    Krishnan, Ramya; Blanco, Mario; Kahlscheuer, Matthew; Abelson, John; Guthrie, Christine; Walter, Nils G.

    2013-01-01

    The spliceosome is a dynamic ribonucleoprotein (RNP) machine that catalyzes the removal of introns in the two transesterification steps of eukaryotic pre-mRNA splicing. Here we used single molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer to monitor the distance of the 5′ splice site (5′SS) and branchpoint (BP) of pre-mRNA in affinity-purified spliceosomes stalled by a mutation in the DExD/H-box helicase Prp2 immediately prior to the first splicing step. Addition of recombinant Prp2 together with NTP and protein cofactor Spp2 rearranges the spliceosome-substrate complex to reversibly explore conformations with proximal 5′SS and BP that accommodate chemistry. Addition of Cwc25 then strongly biases this equilibrium towards the proximal conformation, promoting efficient first-step splicing. The spliceosome thus functions as a biased Brownian ratchet machine where a helicase unlocks thermal fluctuations subsequently rectified by a cofactor “pawl”, a principle possibly widespread among the many helicase-driven RNPs. PMID:24240612

  20. Real time tests for long lead-time forecasting of the magnetic field vectors within CMEs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savani, Neel; Vourlidas, Angelos; Pulkkinen, Antti; Wold, Alexandra M.

    2016-07-01

    The direction of magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections, CMEs, has significant importance for forecasting terrestrial behavior. We have developed a technique to estimate the time-varying magnetic field at Earth for periods within CMEs (Savani et al 2015, 2016). This technique reduces the complex dynamics in order to create a reliable prediction methodology to operate everyday under robust conditions. In this presentation, we focus on the results and skill scores of the forecasting technique calculated from 40 historical CME events from the pre-STEREO mission. Since these results provided substantial improvements in the long lead-time Kp index forecasts, we have now begun testing under real-time conditions. We will also show the preliminary results of our methodology under these real-time conditions within the CCMC hosted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

  1. Real-time Sub-cm Differential Orbit Determination of two Low-Earth Orbiters with GPS Bias Fixing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Sien-Chong; Bar-Sever, Yoaz E.

    2006-01-01

    An effective technique for real-time differential orbit determination with GPS bias fixing is formulated. With this technique, only real-time GPS orbits and clocks are needed (available from the NASA Global Differential GPS System with 10-20 cm accuracy). The onboard, realtime orbital states of user satellites (few meters in accuracy) are used for orbit initialization and integration. An extended Kalman filter is constructed for the estimation of the differential orbit between the two satellites as well as a reference orbit, together with their associating dynamics parameters. Due to close proximity of the two satellites and of similar body shapes, the differential dynamics are highly common and can be tightly constrained which, in turn, strengthens the orbit estimation. Without explicit differencing of GPS data, double-differenced phase biases are formed by a transformation matrix. Integer-valued fixing of these biases are then performed which greatly strengthens the orbit estimation. A 9-day demonstration between GRACE orbits with baselines of approx.200 km indicates that approx.80% of the double-differenced phase biases can successfully be fixed and the differential orbit can be determined to approx.7 mm as compared to the results of onboard K-band ranging.

  2. Non Linear Optimization Applied to Angle-Of Satellite Based Geo-Localization for Biased and Time-Drifting Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, Daniel; Roos, Jason; Robinson, Jace; Carpenter, William; Martin, Richard; Taylor, Clark; Sugrue, Joseph; Terzuoli, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    Multiple sensors are used in a variety of geolocation systems. Many use Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) or Received Signal Strength (RSS) measurements to estimate the most likely location of a signal. When an object does not emit an RF signal, Angle of Arrival (AOA) measurements using optical or infrared frequencies become more feasible than TDOA or RSS measurements. AOA measurements can be created from any sensor platform with any sort of optical sensor, location and attitude knowledge to track passive objects. Previous work has created a non-linear optimization (NLO) method for calculating the most likely estimate from AOA measurements. Two new modifications to the NLO algorithm are created and shown to correct AOA measurement errors by estimating the inherent bias and time-drift in the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) of the AOA sensing platform. One method corrects the sensor bias in post processing while treating the NLO method as a module. The other method directly corrects the sensor bias within the NLO algorithm by incorporating the bias parameters as a state vector in the estimation process. These two methods are analyzed using various Monte-Carlo simulations to check the general performance of the two modifications in comparison to the original NLO algorithm.

  3. Statistical modelling of forecast errors for multiple lead-times and a system of reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

    2010-05-01

    Water resources management, e.g. operation of reservoirs, is amongst others based on forecasts of inflow provided by a precipitation-runoff model. The forecasted inflow is normally given as one value, even though it is an uncertain value. There is a growing interest to account for uncertain information in decision support systems, e.g. how to operate a hydropower reservoir to maximize the gain. One challenge is to develop decision support systems that can use uncertain information. The contribution from the hydrological modeler is to derive a forecast distribution (from which uncertainty intervals can be computed) for the inflow predictions. In this study we constructed a statistical model for the forecast errors for daily inflow into a system of four hydropower reservoirs in Ulla-Førre in Western Norway. A distributed hydrological model was applied to generate the inflow forecasts using weather forecasts provided by ECM for lead-times up to 10 days. The precipitation forecasts were corrected for systematic bias. A statistical model based on auto-regressive innovations for Box-Cox-transformed observations and forecasts was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters of the statistical model were conditioned on climate and the internal snow state in the hydrological model. The model was evaluated according to the reliability of the forecast distribution, the width of the forecast distribution, and efficiency of the median forecast for the 10 lead times and the four catchments. The interpretation of the results had to be done carefully since the inflow data have a large uncertainty.

  4. Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris.

    PubMed

    Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

  5. Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

  6. Lens galaxies in the Illustris simulation: power-law models and the bias of the Hubble constant from time delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Dandan; Sluse, Dominique; Schneider, Peter; Springel, Volker; Vogelsberger, Mark; Nelson, Dylan; Hernquist, Lars

    2016-02-01

    A power-law density model, i.e. ρ (r) ∝ r^{-γ ^' }}, has been commonly employed in strong gravitational lensing studies, including the so-called time-delay technique used to infer the Hubble constant H0. However, since the radial scale at which strong lensing features are formed corresponds to the transition from the dominance of baryonic matter to dark matter, there is no known reason why galaxies should follow a power law in density. The assumption of a power law artificially breaks the mass-sheet degeneracy, a well-known invariance transformation in gravitational lensing which affects the product of Hubble constant and time delay and can therefore cause a bias in the determination of H0 from the time-delay technique. In this paper, we use the Illustris hydrodynamical simulations to estimate the amplitude of this bias, and to understand how it is related to observational properties of galaxies. Investigating a large sample of Illustris galaxies that have velocity dispersion σSIE ≥ 160 km s-1 at redshifts below z = 1, we find that the bias on H0 introduced by the power-law assumption can reach 20-50 per cent, with a scatter of 10-30 per cent (rms). However, we find that by selecting galaxies with an inferred power-law model slope close to isothermal, it is possible to reduce the bias on H0 to ≲ 5 per cent and the scatter to ≲ 10 per cent. This could potentially be used to form less biased statistical samples for H0 measurements in the upcoming large survey era.

  7. Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, Catherine A.

    2008-01-01

    Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

  8. Real Time Corrosion Monitoring in Lead and Lead-Bismuth Systems

    SciTech Connect

    James F. Stubbins; Alan Bolind; Ziang Chen

    2010-02-25

    The objective of this research program is to develop a real-time, in situ corrosion monitoring technique for flowing liquid Pb and eutectic PbBi (LBE) systems in a temperature range of 400 to 650 C. These conditions are relevant to future liquid metal cooled fast reactor operating parameters. THis program was aligned with the Gen IV Reactor initiative to develp technologies to support the design and opertion of a Pb or LBE-cooled fast reactor. The ability to monitor corrosion for protection of structural components is a high priority issue for the safe and prolonged operation of advanced liquid metal fast reactor systems. In those systems, protective oxide layers are intentionally formed and maintained to limit corrosion rates during operation. This program developed a real time, in situ corrosion monitoring tecnique using impedance spectroscopy (IS) technology.

  9. Leading the Charge for Real-Time Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aarons, Dakarai I.

    2009-01-01

    Well before the idea of using data to manage schools gained prominence on the national stage, Oklahoma's Western Heights school district had made the ideal of real-time, data-driven decisionmaking a reality. Back in 2001, Superintendent Joe Kitchens was already being spotlighted for his focus on creating a longitudinal-data system that would give…

  10. Real-time DC-dynamic biasing method for switching time improvement in severely underdamped fringing-field electrostatic MEMS actuators.

    PubMed

    Small, Joshua; Fruehling, Adam; Garg, Anurag; Liu, Xiaoguang; Peroulis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Mechanically underdamped electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators are well known for their fast switching operation in response to a unit step input bias voltage. However, the tradeoff for the improved switching performance is a relatively long settling time to reach each gap height in response to various applied voltages. Transient applied bias waveforms are employed to facilitate reduced switching times for electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators with high mechanical quality factors. Removing the underlying substrate of the fringing-field actuator creates the low mechanical damping environment necessary to effectively test the concept. The removal of the underlying substrate also a has substantial improvement on the reliability performance of the device in regards to failure due to stiction. Although DC-dynamic biasing is useful in improving settling time, the required slew rates for typical MEMS devices may place aggressive requirements on the charge pumps for fully-integrated on-chip designs. Additionally, there may be challenges integrating the substrate removal step into the back-end-of-line commercial CMOS processing steps. Experimental validation of fabricated actuators demonstrates an improvement of 50x in switching time when compared to conventional step biasing results. Compared to theoretical calculations, the experimental results are in good agreement. PMID:25145811

  11. Real-Time DC-dynamic Biasing Method for Switching Time Improvement in Severely Underdamped Fringing-field Electrostatic MEMS Actuators

    PubMed Central

    Small, Joshua; Fruehling, Adam; Garg, Anurag; Liu, Xiaoguang; Peroulis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Mechanically underdamped electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators are well known for their fast switching operation in response to a unit step input bias voltage. However, the tradeoff for the improved switching performance is a relatively long settling time to reach each gap height in response to various applied voltages. Transient applied bias waveforms are employed to facilitate reduced switching times for electrostatic fringing-field MEMS actuators with high mechanical quality factors. Removing the underlying substrate of the fringing-field actuator creates the low mechanical damping environment necessary to effectively test the concept. The removal of the underlying substrate also a has substantial improvement on the reliability performance of the device in regards to failure due to stiction. Although DC-dynamic biasing is useful in improving settling time, the required slew rates for typical MEMS devices may place aggressive requirements on the charge pumps for fully-integrated on-chip designs. Additionally, there may be challenges integrating the substrate removal step into the back-end-of-line commercial CMOS processing steps. Experimental validation of fabricated actuators demonstrates an improvement of 50x in switching time when compared to conventional step biasing results. Compared to theoretical calculations, the experimental results are in good agreement. PMID:25145811

  12. Trends in the emitter-base bias dependence of the average base transit time through abrupt heterojunction bipolar transistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, T.; Cahay, M.; Roenker, K.

    1996-11-01

    The average base transit time is computed using a current impulse response technique for three typical abrupt Npn heterojunction bipolar transistors as a function of the emitter-base bias, VBE. This technique is based on a hybrid model of carrier transport incorporating a quantum-mechanical analysis of carrier injection at the emitter-base junction and a Monte Carlo analysis of base transport. For typical AlGaAs/GaAs and InP/InGaAs structures, the base transit time first increases with VBE, reaches a maximum, and then decreases towards a value close to the one predicted using a semi-Maxwellian injection of carriers into the base at an energy equal to the emitter-base conduction band spike. For a typical InAlAs/InGaAs structure, the average base transit time is found to decrease with an increase in VBE. For all structures, we show that there is a correlation between the bias dependence of the average base transit time and the bias dependence of the average number of collisions per carrier (calculated for carriers transmitted across the base).

  13. Depression biased non-Hebbian spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity in the rat subiculum.

    PubMed

    Pandey, Anurag; Sikdar, Sujit Kumar

    2014-08-15

    The subiculum is a structure that forms a bridge between the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex (EC), and plays a major role in the memory consolidation process. Here, we demonstrate spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) at the proximal excitatory inputs on the subicular pyramidal neurons of juvenile rat. Causal (positive) pairing of a single EPSP with a single back-propagating action potential (bAP) after a time interval of 10 ms (+10 ms) failed to induce plasticity. However, increasing the number of bAPs in a burst to three, at two different frequencies of 50 Hz (bAP burst) and 150 Hz, induced long-term depression (LTD) after a time interval of +10 ms in both the regular-firing (RF), and the weak burst firing (WBF) neurons. The LTD amplitude decreased with increasing time interval between the EPSP and the bAP burst. Reversing the order of the pairing of the EPSP and the bAP burst induced LTP at a time interval of -10 ms. This finding is in contrast with reports at other synapses, wherein pre- before postsynaptic (causal) pairing induced LTP and vice versa. Our results reaffirm the earlier observations that the relative timing of the pre- and postsynaptic activities can lead to multiple types of plasticity profiles. The induction of timing-dependent LTD (t-LTD) was dependent on postsynaptic calcium change via NMDA receptors in the WBF neurons, while it was independent of postsynaptic calcium change, but required active L-type calcium channels in the RF neurons. Thus the mechanism of synaptic plasticity may vary within a hippocampal subfield depending on the postsynaptic neuron involved. This study also reports a novel mechanism of LTD induction, where L-type calcium channels are involved in a presynaptically induced synaptic plasticity. The findings may have strong implications in the memory consolidation process owing to the central role of the subiculum and LTD in this process. PMID:24907304

  14. Depression biased non-Hebbian spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity in the rat subiculum

    PubMed Central

    Pandey, Anurag; Sikdar, Sujit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The subiculum is a structure that forms a bridge between the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex (EC), and plays a major role in the memory consolidation process. Here, we demonstrate spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) at the proximal excitatory inputs on the subicular pyramidal neurons of juvenile rat. Causal (positive) pairing of a single EPSP with a single back-propagating action potential (bAP) after a time interval of 10 ms (+10 ms) failed to induce plasticity. However, increasing the number of bAPs in a burst to three, at two different frequencies of 50 Hz (bAP burst) and 150 Hz, induced long-term depression (LTD) after a time interval of +10 ms in both the regular-firing (RF), and the weak burst firing (WBF) neurons. The LTD amplitude decreased with increasing time interval between the EPSP and the bAP burst. Reversing the order of the pairing of the EPSP and the bAP burst induced LTP at a time interval of −10 ms. This finding is in contrast with reports at other synapses, wherein pre- before postsynaptic (causal) pairing induced LTP and vice versa. Our results reaffirm the earlier observations that the relative timing of the pre- and postsynaptic activities can lead to multiple types of plasticity profiles. The induction of timing-dependent LTD (t-LTD) was dependent on postsynaptic calcium change via NMDA receptors in the WBF neurons, while it was independent of postsynaptic calcium change, but required active L-type calcium channels in the RF neurons. Thus the mechanism of synaptic plasticity may vary within a hippocampal subfield depending on the postsynaptic neuron involved. This study also reports a novel mechanism of LTD induction, where L-type calcium channels are involved in a presynaptically induced synaptic plasticity. The findings may have strong implications in the memory consolidation process owing to the central role of the subiculum and LTD in this process. PMID:24907304

  15. Towards uniform accelerometry analysis: a standardization methodology to minimize measurement bias due to systematic accelerometer wear-time variation.

    PubMed

    Katapally, Tarun R; Muhajarine, Nazeem

    2014-05-01

    Accelerometers are predominantly used to objectively measure the entire range of activity intensities - sedentary behaviour (SED), light physical activity (LPA) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). However, studies consistently report results without accounting for systematic accelerometer wear-time variation (within and between participants), jeopardizing the validity of these results. This study describes the development of a standardization methodology to understand and minimize measurement bias due to wear-time variation. Accelerometry is generally conducted over seven consecutive days, with participants' data being commonly considered 'valid' only if wear-time is at least 10 hours/day. However, even within 'valid' data, there could be systematic wear-time variation. To explore this variation, accelerometer data of Smart Cities, Healthy Kids study (www.smartcitieshealthykids.com) were analyzed descriptively and with repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). Subsequently, a standardization method was developed, where case-specific observed wear-time is controlled to an analyst specified time period. Next, case-specific accelerometer data are interpolated to this controlled wear-time to produce standardized variables. To understand discrepancies owing to wear-time variation, all analyses were conducted pre- and post-standardization. Descriptive analyses revealed systematic wear-time variation, both between and within participants. Pre- and post-standardized descriptive analyses of SED, LPA and MVPA revealed a persistent and often significant trend of wear-time's influence on activity. SED was consistently higher on weekdays before standardization; however, this trend was reversed post-standardization. Even though MVPA was significantly higher on weekdays both pre- and post-standardization, the magnitude of this difference decreased post-standardization. Multivariable analyses with standardized SED, LPA and MVPA as outcome

  16. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C. ); Bender, M.A. )

    1993-01-01

    Investigations have been carried out which have measured the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that: (1) There are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G2 repair system, in which the pair of chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second also operates in G1 and S, and is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. (2) The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase but operates even when the repair enzymes are active. (3) The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. (4) The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously (e.g., most of a cell cycle). 29 refs., 1 fig.

  17. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C. ); Bender, M.A. )

    1993-01-01

    Investigations have been carried out on the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single-strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single-strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that there are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G[sub 2] repair system, in which either of the two chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase repair, but also operates even when the repair enzymes are active. The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously.

  18. Time sequence of events leading to chromosomal aberration formation

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, R.C.; Bender, M.A.

    1993-05-01

    Investigations have been carried out on the influence of the repair polymerases on the yield of different types of chromosomal aberrations. The studies were mainly concerned with the effect of inhibiting the polymerases on the yield of aberrations. The polymerases fill in single-strand regions, and the fact that their inhibition affects the yield of aberrations suggests that single-strand lesions are influential in aberration formation. The results indicate that there are two actions of polymerases in clastogenesis. One is in their involvement in a G{sub 2} repair system, in which either of the two chromatids is concerned, and which does not yield aberrations unless the inhibition is still operating when the cells enter mitosis. The second is such that when repair is inhibited, further damage accrues. The second action is affected by inhibiting polymerase repair, but also operates even when the repair enzymes are active. The production of chromosomal exchanges involves a series of reactions, some of which are reversible. The time span over which the reactions occur is much longer than has been envisaged previously.

  19. Mitochondrial DNA as a non-invasive biomarker: Accurate quantification using real time quantitative PCR without co-amplification of pseudogenes and dilution bias

    SciTech Connect

    Malik, Afshan N.; Shahni, Rojeen; Rodriguez-de-Ledesma, Ana; Laftah, Abas; Cunningham, Phil

    2011-08-19

    Highlights: {yields} Mitochondrial dysfunction is central to many diseases of oxidative stress. {yields} 95% of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome. {yields} Dilution of untreated genomic DNA leads to dilution bias. {yields} Unique primers and template pretreatment are needed to accurately measure mitochondrial DNA content. -- Abstract: Circulating mitochondrial DNA (MtDNA) is a potential non-invasive biomarker of cellular mitochondrial dysfunction, the latter known to be central to a wide range of human diseases. Changes in MtDNA are usually determined by quantification of MtDNA relative to nuclear DNA (Mt/N) using real time quantitative PCR. We propose that the methodology for measuring Mt/N needs to be improved and we have identified that current methods have at least one of the following three problems: (1) As much of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome, many commonly used MtDNA primers co-amplify homologous pseudogenes found in the nuclear genome; (2) use of regions from genes such as {beta}-actin and 18S rRNA which are repetitive and/or highly variable for qPCR of the nuclear genome leads to errors; and (3) the size difference of mitochondrial and nuclear genomes cause a 'dilution bias' when template DNA is diluted. We describe a PCR-based method using unique regions in the human mitochondrial genome not duplicated in the nuclear genome; unique single copy region in the nuclear genome and template treatment to remove dilution bias, to accurately quantify MtDNA from human samples.

  20. A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarani, Sam

    2010-01-01

    The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of the ring world. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the Reaction Control System (or RCS) and the Reaction Wheel Assembly (RWA) control system. In the course of its mission, Cassini performs numerous reaction wheel momentum biases (or unloads) using its reaction control thrusters. The use of the RCS thrusters often imparts undesired velocity changes (delta Vs) on the spacecraft and it is crucial for Cassini navigation and attitude control teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V vector in Earth Mean Equatorial (J2000) inertial coordinates for reaction wheel bias events, without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in a dynamic or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The flight-calibrated methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide the RCS thruster on-times, with acceptable accuracy and without any form of dynamic simulation, for reaction wheel biases, along with the hydrazine usage and the delta V in EME-2000 inertial frame.

  1. Renormalized halo bias

    SciTech Connect

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Green, Daniel; Zaldarriaga, Matias E-mail: dbaumann@damtp.cam.ac.uk E-mail: matiasz@ias.edu

    2014-08-01

    This paper provides a systematic study of renormalization in models of halo biasing. Building on work of McDonald, we show that Eulerian biasing is only consistent with renormalization if non-local terms and higher-derivative contributions are included in the biasing model. We explicitly determine the complete list of required bias parameters for Gaussian initial conditions, up to quartic order in the dark matter density contrast and at leading order in derivatives. At quadratic order, this means including the gravitational tidal tensor, while at cubic order the velocity potential appears as an independent degree of freedom. Our study naturally leads to an effective theory of biasing in which the halo density is written as a double expansion in fluctuations and spatial derivatives. We show that the bias expansion can be organized in terms of Galileon operators which aren't renormalized at leading order in derivatives. Finally, we discuss how the renormalized bias parameters impact the statistics of halos.

  2. Time differences in the formation of meteorites as determined from the ratio of lead-207 to lead-206

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tatsumoto, M.; Knight, R.J.; Allegre, C.J.

    1973-01-01

    Measurements of the lead isotopic composition and the uranium, thorium, and lead concentrations in meteorites were made in order to obtain more precise radiometric ages of these members of the solar system. The newly determined value of the lead isotopic composition of Canyon Diablo troilite is as follows: 206Pb/204Pb = 9.307, 207Pb/204Pb = 10.294, and 208Pb/204Pb = 29.476. The leads of Angra dos Reis, Sioux County, and Nuevo Laredo achondrites are very radiogenic, the 206Pb/204Pb values are about 200, and the uranium-thorium-lead systems are nearly concordant. The ages of the meteorites as calculated from a single-stage 207Pb/206Pb isochron based on the newly determined primordial lead value and the newly reported 235U and 238U decay constants, are 4.528 ?? 10 9 years for Sioux County and Nuevo Laredo and 4.555 ?? 10 9 years for Angra dos Reis. When calculated with the uranium decay constants used by Patterson, these ages are 4.593 ?? 109 years and 4.620 ?? 109 years, respectively, and are therefore 40 to 70 ?? 106 years older than the 4.55 ?? 109 years age Patterson reported. The age difference of 27 ?? 106 years between Angra dos Reis and the other two meteorites is compatible with the difference between the initial 87Sr/86Sr ratio of Angra dos Reis and that of seven basaltic achondrites observed by Papanastassiou and Wasserburg. The time difference is also comparable to that determined by 129I-129Xe chronology. The ages of ordinary chondrites (H5 and L6) range from 4.52 to 4.57 ?? 109 years, and, here too, time differences in the formation of the parent bodies or later metamorphic events are indicated. Carbonaceous chondrites (C2 and C3) appear to contain younger lead components.

  3. Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

  4. A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarani, Siamak

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for accurate and flight-calibrated determination of the on-times of the Cassini spacecraft Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters, without any form of dynamic simulation, for the reaction wheel biases. The hydrazine usage and the delta V vector in body frame are also computed from the respective thruster on-times. The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake ambitious and unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of Saturn. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the RCS and the reaction wheel assembly control system. The RCS is used to execute a commanded spacecraft slew, to maintain three-axis attitude control, control spacecraft's attitude while performing science observations with coarse pointing requirements, e.g. during targeted low-altitude Titan and Enceladus flybys, bias the momentum of reaction wheels, and to perform RCS-based orbit trim maneuvers. The use of RCS often imparts undesired delta V on the spacecraft. The Cassini navigation team requires accurate predictions of the delta V in spacecraft coordinates and inertial frame resulting from slews using RCS thrusters and more importantly from reaction wheel bias events. It is crucial for the Cassini spacecraft attitude control and navigation teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V for various reaction wheel bias events without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in flight software-based dynamic simulation or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide just that. This methodology assumes a priori knowledge of thrust magnitudes and thruster pulse rise and tail-off time

  5. Selection bias in rheumatic disease research

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hyon K.; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

    2014-01-01

    The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the ‘risk factor paradox’—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research. PMID:24686510

  6. The Influence of Referee Bias on Extra Time in Elite Soccer Matches.

    PubMed

    Lago-Peñas, Carlos; Gómez-López, Maite

    2016-04-01

    Referees have discretion over the addition of extra time at the end of the soccer game to compensate for lost time due to unusual stoppages. This study assesses if referees favor big teams by shortening close games where the big team is ahead and lengthening close games where the big team is behind. The sample comprises all 380 matches in the Spanish La Liga during the 2014-2015 season. The dependent variable was the extra time the referee decides to add to the second half. The independent variables were the score difference, opponent team's level of play, yellow cards, red cards, player substitutions, average attendance, and fouls committed. Linear regression analysis suggested that the greater the score difference between teams, the less extra time was added by the referee. However, in close games, referees tended to add more time for a higher level team when they were behind and add less time when they were ahead. Red cards and the number of fouls committed increased the extra time. PMID:27166341

  7. It's about Time: Leading School Reform in an Era of Time Scarcity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruno, James E.

    Research about the American experience with school reform has underscored time as the major obstacle to change. This book presents a psychosocial perspective of time and the problems it presents for teachers and administrators in an era of time scarcity. Specifically, it explores the effects of five major concepts (time investment portfolios,…

  8. Odour-tracking capability of a silkmoth driving a mobile robot with turning bias and time delay.

    PubMed

    Ando, N; Emoto, S; Kanzaki, R

    2013-03-01

    The reconstruction of mechanisms behind odour-tracking behaviours of animals is expected to enable the development of biomimetic robots capable of adaptive behaviour and effectively locating odour sources. However, because the behavioural mechanisms of animals have not been extensively studied, their behavioural capabilities cannot be verified. In this study, we have employed a mobile robot driven by a genuine insect (insect-controlled robot) to evaluate the behavioural capabilities of a biological system implemented in an artificial system. We used a male silkmoth as the 'driver' and investigated its behavioural capabilities to imposed perturbations during odour tracking. When we manipulated the robot to induce the turning bias, it located the odour source by compensatory turning of the on-board moth. Shifting of the orientation paths to the odour plume boundaries and decreased orientation ability caused by covering the visual field suggested that the moth steered with bilateral olfaction and vision to overcome the bias. An evaluation of the time delays of the moth and robot movements suggested an acceptable range for sensory-motor processing when the insect system was directly applied to artificial systems. Further evaluations of the insect-controlled robot will provide a 'blueprint' for biomimetic robots and strongly promote the field of biomimetics. PMID:23385386

  9. Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

    2016-01-01

    Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

  10. Timing Bias in the Psychiatry Subject Examination of the National Board of Medical Examiners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manley, Myrl; Heiss, Glenn

    2006-01-01

    Objective: The authors investigate whether the timing of the psychiatry clerkship influences scores on the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) subject exam as has been reported for other clerkships. The authors attempt to identify which clerkships, if any, offer an advantage when taken before psychiatry. Methods: Mean aggregate exam scores…

  11. The North Atlantic Cold Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greatbatch, Richard; Drews, Annika; Ding, Hui; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-04-01

    The North Atlantic cold bias, associated with a too zonal path of the North Atlantic Current and a missing "northwest corner", is a common problem in coupled climate and forecast models. The bias affects the North Atlantic and European climate mean state, variability and predictability. We investigate the use of a flow field correction to adjust the path of the North Atlantic Current as well as additional corrections to the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. Results using the Kiel Climate Model show that the flow field correction allows a northward flow into the northwest corner, largely eliminating the bias below the surface layer. A surface cold bias remains but can be eliminated by additionally correcting the surface freshwater flux, without adjusting the surface heat flux seen by the ocean model. A model version in which only the surface fluxes of heat and freshwater are corrected continues to exhibit the incorrect path of the North Atlantic Current and a strong subsurface bias. Removing the bias impacts the multi-decadal time scale variability in the model and leads to a better representation of the SST pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability than the uncorrected model.

  12. Further Explorations of the Facing Bias in Biological Motion Perception: Perspective Cues, Observer Sex, and Response Times

    PubMed Central

    Schouten, Ben; Davila, Alex; Verfaillie, Karl

    2013-01-01

    The human visual system has evolved to be highly sensitive to visual information about other persons and their movements as is illustrated by the effortless perception of point-light figures or ‘biological motion’. When presented orthographically, a point-light walker is interpreted in two anatomically plausible ways: As ‘facing the viewer’ or as ‘facing away’ from the viewer. However, human observers show a ‘facing bias’: They perceive such a point-light walker as facing towards them in about 70-80% of the cases. In studies exploring the role of social and biological relevance as a possible account for the facing bias, we found a ‘figure gender effect’: Male point-light figures elicit a stronger facing bias than female point-light figures. Moreover, we also found an ‘observer gender effect’: The ‘figure gender effect’ was stronger for male than for female observers. In the present study we presented to 11 males and 11 females point-light walkers of which, very subtly, the perspective information was manipulated by modifying the earlier reported ‘perspective technique’. Proportions of ‘facing the viewer’ responses and reaction times were recorded. Results show that human observers, even in the absence of local shape or size cues, easily pick up on perspective cues, confirming recent demonstrations of high visual sensitivity to cues on whether another person is potentially approaching. We also found a consistent difference in how male and female observers respond to stimulus variations (figure gender or perspective cues) that cause variations in the perceived in-depth orientation of a point-light walker. Thus, the ‘figure gender effect’ is possibly caused by changes in the relative locations and motions of the dots that the perceptual system tends to interpret as perspective cues. Third, reaction time measures confirmed the existence of the facing bias and recent research showing faster detection of approaching than receding

  13. Quantification Bias Caused by Plasmid DNA Conformation in Quantitative Real-Time PCR Assay

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Chih-Hui; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Pan, Tzu-Ming

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) is the gold standard for the quantification of specific nucleic acid sequences. However, a serious concern has been revealed in a recent report: supercoiled plasmid standards cause significant over-estimation in qPCR quantification. In this study, we investigated the effect of plasmid DNA conformation on the quantification of DNA and the efficiency of qPCR. Our results suggest that plasmid DNA conformation has significant impact on the accuracy of absolute quantification by qPCR. DNA standard curves shifted significantly among plasmid standards with different DNA conformations. Moreover, the choice of DNA measurement method and plasmid DNA conformation may also contribute to the measurement error of DNA standard curves. Due to the multiple effects of plasmid DNA conformation on the accuracy of qPCR, efforts should be made to assure the highest consistency of plasmid standards for qPCR. Thus, we suggest that the conformation, preparation, quantification, purification, handling, and storage of standard plasmid DNA should be described and defined in the Minimum Information for Publication of Quantitative Real-Time PCR Experiments (MIQE) to assure the reproducibility and accuracy of qPCR absolute quantification. PMID:22194997

  14. First passage time distributions of anomalous biased diffusion with double absorbing barriers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Gang; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2014-10-01

    We investigate the first passage time (FPT) problem of anomalous diffusion governed by the Galilei variant fractional diffusion-advection equation in the semi-infinite and finite domains subject to an absorbing boundary condition. We obtain explicit solutions for the FPT distributions and the corresponding Laplace transforms for both zero and constant drift cases by using the method of separation of variables as well as the properties of the Fox H function. An important relation between the FPT distributions corresponding to one and two absorbing barriers is revealed to determine the conditional FPT distributions. It shows that the proportion between the conditional FPT distributions only depends on the general Péclet number. We further discuss the asymptotic behavior of the FPT distributions and confirm our theoretical analysis by numerical results.

  15. Effective use of general circulation model outputs for forecasting monthly rainfalls to long lead times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawthorne, Sandra; Wang, Q. J.; Schepen, Andrew; Robertson, David

    2013-09-01

    Long lead rainfall forecasts are highly valuable for planning and management of water resources and agriculture. In this study, we establish multiple statistical calibration and bridging models that use general circulation model (GCM) outputs as predictors to produce monthly rainfall forecasts for Australia with lead times up to 8 months. The statistical calibration models make use of raw forecasts of rainfall from a coupled GCM, and the statistical bridging models make use of sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts of the GCM. The forecasts from the multiple models are merged through Bayesian model averaging to take advantage of the strengths of individual models. The skill of monthly rainfall forecasts is generally low. Compared to forecasting seasonal rainfall totals, it is more challenging to forecast monthly rainfall. However, there are regions and months for which forecasts are skillful. In particular, there are months of the year for which forecasts can be skillfully made at long lead times. This is most evident for the period of November and December. Using GCM forecasts of SST through bridging clearly improves monthly rainfall forecasts. For lead time 0, the improvement is particularly evident for February to March, July and October to December. For longer lead times, the benefit of bridging is more apparent. As lead time increases, bridging is able to maintain forecast skill much better than when only calibration is applied.

  16. Are Secondary School Students Still Hampered by the Natural Number Bias? A Reaction Time Study on Fraction Comparison Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Hoof, Jo; Lijnen, Tristan; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Rational numbers and particularly fractions are difficult for students. It is often claimed that the "natural number bias" underlies erroneous reasoning about rational numbers. This cross-sectional study investigated the natural number bias in first and fifth year secondary school students. Relying on dual process theory assumptions that…

  17. Real-time bias-adjusted O 3 and PM 2.5 air quality index forecasts and their performance evaluations over the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Daiwen; Mathur, Rohit; Trivikrama Rao, S.

    2010-06-01

    The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O 3) and experimental fine particular matter (PM 2.5) forecasts over the continental United States (CONUS) during 2008. This paper describes the implementation of a real-time Kalman Filter (KF) bias-adjustment technique to improve the accuracy of O 3 and PM 2.5 forecasts at discrete monitoring locations. The operational surface-level O 3 and PM 2.5 forecasts from the NAQFC system were post-processed by the KF bias-adjusted technique using near real-time hourly O 3 and PM 2.5 observations obtained from EPA's AIRNow measurement network. The KF bias-adjusted forecasts were created daily, providing 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts for O 3 and PM 2.5 at all AIRNow monitoring sites within the CONUS domain. The bias-adjustment post-processing implemented in this study requires minimal computational cost; requiring less than 10 min of CPU on a single processor Linux machine to generate 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts over the entire CONUS domain. The results show that the real-time KF bias-adjusted forecasts for both O 3 and PM 2.5 have performed as well as or even better than the previous studies when the same technique was applied to the historical O 3 and PM 2.5 time series from archived AQF in earlier years. Compared to the raw forecasts, the KF forecasts displayed significant improvement in the daily maximum 8-h O 3 and daily mean PM 2.5 forecasts in terms of both discrete (i.e., reduced errors, increased correlation coefficients, and index of agreement) and categorical (increased hit rate and decreased false alarm ratio) evaluation metrics at almost all locations during the study period in 2008.

  18. Temperature trend biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

  19. Local Polarization Dynamics and Bias-Induced Phase Transitions in Ferroelectric Relaxors: Time-resolved Spectroscopy and Ergodic Gap Mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalinin, S. V.; Rodriguez, B.; Nikiforov, M. P.; Balke, N.; Jesse, S.; Ovchinnikov, O. S.; Bokov, A. A.; Ye, Z.-G.

    2009-03-01

    Mesoscopic domain structure and dynamics in PMN-PT solis solutions is studied using spatially resolved time- and voltage spectroscopic imaging modes. For compositions close to the MPB, we observe the formation of classical ferroelectric domains with rough self-affine boundaries. In the ergodic phase (PMN and PMN-10PT), the formation of non-classical labyrinthine domain patterns characterized by a single characteristic length scale is observed. The (a) persistence of these patterns well above Tc and (b) the fact that cannot be switched by tip bias suggest that they can be attributed to the frozen polarization component. Spatial variability of polarization relaxation dynamics in PMN-10PT is studied. Local relaxation attributed to the reorientation of polar nanoregions was found to follow stretched exponential dependence, with β 0.4, much larger than the macroscopic value determined from dielectric spectra (β 0.09). The spatial inhomogeneity of relaxation time distribution with the presence of 100-200 nm ``fast'' and ``slow'' regions is observed. The results are analyzed to map the Vogel-Fulcher temperatures on the nanoscale. The applicability of this technique to map ``ergodic gap'' distribution on the surface is discussed. Research supported by the Division of Materials Science and Engineering, Basic Energy Sciences, U.S. Department of Energy at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC.

  20. Time Course of Visual Attention in Infant Categorization of Cats versus Dogs: Evidence for a Head Bias as Revealed through Eye Tracking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Paul C.; Doran, Matthew M.; Reiss, Jason E.; Hoffman, James E.

    2009-01-01

    Previous looking time studies have shown that infants use the heads of cat and dog images to form category representations for these animal classes. The present research used an eye-tracking procedure to determine the time course of attention to the head and whether it reflects a preexisting bias or online learning. Six- to 7-month-olds were…

  1. Particle filter-based estimation of inter-frequency phase bias for real-time GLONASS integer ambiguity resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Yumiao; Ge, Maorong; Neitzel, Frank

    2015-11-01

    GLONASS could hardly reach the positioning performance of GPS, especially for fast and real-time precise positioning. One of the reasons is the phase inter-frequency bias (IFB) at the receiver end prevents its integer ambiguity resolution. A number of studies were carried out to achieve the integer ambiguity resolution for GLONASS. Based on some of the revealed IFB characteristics, for instance IFB is a linear function of the received carrier frequency and L1 and L2 have the same IFB in unit of length, most of recent methods recommend estimating the IFB rate together with ambiguities. However, since the two sets of parameters are highly correlated, as demonstrated in previous studies, observations over several hours up to 1 day are needed even with simultaneous GPS observations to obtain a reasonable solution. Obviously, these approaches cannot be applied for real-time positioning. Actually, it can be demonstrated that GLONASS ambiguity resolution should also be available even for a single epoch if the IFB rate is precisely known. In addition, the closer the IFB rate value is to its true value, the larger the fixing RATIO will be. Based on this fact, in this paper, a new approach is developed to estimate the IFB rate by means of particle filtering with the likelihood function derived from RATIO. This approach is evaluated with several sets of experimental data. For both static and kinematic cases, the results show that IFB rates could be estimated precisely just with GLONASS data of a few epochs depending on the baseline length. The time cost with a normal PC can be controlled around 1 s and can be further reduced. With the estimated IFB rate, integer ambiguity resolution is available immediately and as a consequence, the positioning accuracy is improved significantly to the level of GPS fixed solution. Thus the new approach enables real-time precise applications of GLONASS.

  2. Lead isotopic studies of lunar soils - Their bearing on the time scale of agglutinate formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Church, S. E.; Tilton, G. R.; Chen, J. H.

    1976-01-01

    Fines (smaller than 75 microns) and bulk soil were studied to analyze loss of volatile lead; losses of the order of 10% to 30% radiogenic lead during the production of agglutinates are assessed. Lead isotope data from fine-agglutinate pairs are analyzed for information on the time scale of micrometeorite bombardment, from the chords generated by the data in concordia diagrams. Resulting mean lead loss ages were compared to spallogenic gas exposure ages for all samples. Labile parentless radiogenic Pb residing preferentially on or in the fines is viewed as possibly responsible for aberrant lead loss ages. Bulk soils plot above the concordia curve (in a field of excess radiogenic Pb) for all samples with anomalous ages.

  3. Time-averaged fluxes of lead and fallout radionuclides to sediments in Florida Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, J.A.; Holmes, C.; Halley, R.; Bothner, M.; Shinn, E.; Graney, J.; Keeler, G.; TenBrink, M.; Orlandini, K.A.; Rudnick, D.

    2000-01-01

    Recent, unmixed sediments from mud banks of central Florida Bay were dated using 210Pb/226Ra, and chronologies were verified by comparing sediment lead temporal records with Pb/Ca ratios in annual layers of coral (Montastrea annularis) located on the ocean side of the Florida Keys. Dates of sediment lead peaks (1978 ?? 2) accord with prior observations of a 6 year lag between the occurrence of maximum atmospheric lead in 1972 and peak coral lead in 1978. Smaller lags of 1-2 years occur between the maximum atmospheric radionuclide fallout and peaks in sediment temporal records of 137Cs and Pu. Such lags are consequences of system time averaging (STA) in which atmospherically delivered particle-associated constituents accumulate and mix in a (sedimentary?) reservoir before transferring to permanent sediments and coral. STA model calculations, using time-dependent atmospheric inputs, produced optimized profiles in excellent accord with measured sediment 137Cs, Pu, lead, and coral lead distributions. Derived residence times of these particle tracers (16 ?? 1, 15.7 ?? 0.7, 19 ?? 3, and 16 ?? 2 years, respectively) are comparable despite differences in sampling locations, in accumulating media, and in element loading histories and geochemical properties. For a 16 year weighted mean residence time, STA generates the observed 6 year lead peak lag. Evidently, significant levels of nondegradable, particle-associated contaminants can persist in Florida Bay for many decades following elimination of external inputs. Present results, in combination with STA model analysis of previously reported radionuclide profiles, suggest that decade-scale time averaging may occur widely in recent coastal marine sedimentary environments. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Intergroup bias.

    PubMed

    Hewstone, Miles; Rubin, Mark; Willis, Hazel

    2002-01-01

    This chapter reviews the extensive literature on bias in favor of in-groups at the expense of out-groups. We focus on five issues and identify areas for future research: (a) measurement and conceptual issues (especially in-group favoritism vs. out-group derogation, and explicit vs. implicit measures of bias); (b) modern theories of bias highlighting motivational explanations (social identity, optimal distinctiveness, uncertainty reduction, social dominance, terror management); (c) key moderators of bias, especially those that exacerbate bias (identification, group size, status and power, threat, positive-negative asymmetry, personality and individual differences); (d) reduction of bias (individual vs. intergroup approaches, especially models of social categorization); and (e) the link between intergroup bias and more corrosive forms of social hostility. PMID:11752497

  5. Possible relationship between Seismic Electric Signals (SES) lead time and earthquake stress drop

    PubMed Central

    DOLOGLOU, Elizabeth

    2008-01-01

    Stress drop values for fourteen large earthquakes with MW ≥ 5.4 which occurred in Greece during the period 1983–2007 are available. All these earthquakes were preceded by Seismic Electric Signals (SES). An attempt has been made to investigate possible correlation between their stress drop values and the corresponding SES lead times. For the stress drop, we considered the Brune stress drop, ΔσB, estimated from far field body wave displacement source spectra and ΔσSB derived from the strong motion acceleration response spectra. The results show a relation may exist between Brune stress drop, ΔσB, and lead time which implies that earthquakes with higher stress drop values are preceded by SES with shorter lead time. PMID:18941291

  6. Propagation of biases in climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale: Implications for bias adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Rohrer, Marco; Furrer, Reinhard; Seibert, Jan

    2016-03-01

    Bias adjustment methods usually do not account for the origins of biases in climate models and instead perform empirical adjustments. Biases in the synoptic circulation are for instance often overlooked when postprocessing regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). Yet considering atmospheric circulation helps to establish links between the synoptic and the regional scale, and thereby provides insights into the physical processes leading to RCM biases. Here we investigate how synoptic circulation biases impact regional climate simulations and influence our ability to mitigate biases in precipitation and temperature using quantile mapping. We considered 20 GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project and characterized the dominant atmospheric flow over the Alpine domain using circulation types. We report in particular a systematic overestimation of the frequency of westerly flow in winter. We show that it contributes to the generalized overestimation of winter precipitation over Switzerland, and this wet regional bias can be reduced by improving the simulation of synoptic circulation. We also demonstrate that statistical bias adjustment relying on quantile mapping is sensitive to circulation biases, which leads to residual errors in the postprocessed time series. Overall, decomposing GCM-RCM time series using circulation types reveals connections missed by analyses relying on monthly or seasonal values. Our results underscore the necessity to better diagnose process misrepresentation in climate models to progress with bias adjustment and impact modeling.

  7. Sensitivity of a thermodynamic sea ice model with leads to time step size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ledley, T. S.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics of sea ice models, developed to study the physics of the growth and melt of ice at the ocean surface and the variations in ice extent, depend on the size of the time step. Thus, to study longer-term variations within a reasonable computer budget, a model with a scheme allowing longer time steps has been constructed. However, the results produced by the model can definitely depend on the length of the time step. The sensitivity of a model to time-step size can be reduced by appropriate approaches. The present investigation is concerned with experiments which use a formulation of a lead parameterization that can be considered as a first step toward the development of a lead parameterization suitable for a use in long-term climate studies.

  8. Practitioner Interest in Part-time Postgraduate Education Leading to a Doctor of Pharmacy Degree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubawy, W. C.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Practitioner interest in part time postgraduate, off-campus study leading to a PharmD degree was assessed by administering a non-self-selective survey to 202 practitioners attending continuing education programs in six geographic regions in Kentucky. A verbal and written probable program description was presented prior to the survey. (Author/MLW)

  9. Use of Six Sigma Methodology to Reduce Appointment Lead-Time in Obstetrics Outpatient Department.

    PubMed

    Ortiz Barrios, Miguel A; Felizzola Jiménez, Heriberto

    2016-10-01

    This paper focuses on the issue of longer appointment lead-time in the obstetrics outpatient department of a maternal-child hospital in Colombia. Because of extended appointment lead-time, women with high-risk pregnancy could develop severe complications in their health status and put their babies at risk. This problem was detected through a project selection process explained in this article and to solve it, Six Sigma methodology has been used. First, the process was defined through a SIPOC diagram to identify its input and output variables. Second, six sigma performance indicators were calculated to establish the process baseline. Then, a fishbone diagram was used to determine the possible causes of the problem. These causes were validated with the aid of correlation analysis and other statistical tools. Later, improvement strategies were designed to reduce appointment lead-time in this department. Project results evidenced that average appointment lead-time reduced from 6,89 days to 4,08 days and the deviation standard dropped from 1,57 days to 1,24 days. In this way, the hospital will serve pregnant women faster, which represents a risk reduction of perinatal and maternal mortality. PMID:27580729

  10. On biases in precise point positioning with multi-constellation and multi-frequency GNSS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Mowafy, A.; Deo, M.; Rizos, C.

    2016-03-01

    Various types of biases in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data preclude integer ambiguity fixing and degrade solution accuracy when not being corrected during precise point positioning (PPP). In this contribution, these biases are first reviewed, including satellite and receiver hardware biases, differential code biases, differential phase biases, initial fractional phase biases, inter-system receiver time biases, and system time scale offset. PPP models that take account of these biases are presented for two cases using ionosphere-free observations. The first case is when using primary signals that are used to generate precise orbits and clock corrections. The second case applies when using additional signals to the primary ones. In both cases, measurements from single and multiple constellations are addressed. It is suggested that the satellite-related code biases be handled as calibrated quantities that are obtained from multi-GNSS experiment products and the fractional phase cycle biases obtained from a network to allow for integer ambiguity fixing. Some receiver-related biases are removed using between-satellite single differencing, whereas other receiver biases such as inter-system biases are lumped with differential code and phase biases and need to be estimated. The testing results show that the treatment of biases significantly improves solution convergence in the float ambiguity PPP mode, and leads to ambiguity-fixed PPP within a few minutes with a small improvement in solution precision.

  11. A New Model for Real-Time Regional Vertical Total Electron Content and Differential Code Bias Estimation Using IGS Real-Time Service (IGS-RTS) Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelazeem, Mohamed; Çelik, Rahmi N.; El-Rabbany, Ahmed

    2016-04-01

    The international global navigation satellite system (GNSS) real-time service (IGS-RTS) products have been used extensively for real-time precise point positioning and ionosphere modeling applications. In this study, we develop a regional model for real-time vertical total electron content (RT-VTEC) and differential code bias (RT-DCB) estimation over Europe using the IGS-RTS satellite orbit and clock products. The developed model has a spatial and temporal resolution of 1°×1° and 15 minutes, respectively. GPS observations from a regional network consisting of 60 IGS and EUREF reference stations are processed in the zero-difference mode using the Bernese-5.2 software package in order to extract the geometry-free linear combination of the smoothed code observations. The spherical harmonic expansion function is used to model the VTEC, the receiver and the satellite DCBs. To validate the proposed model, the RT-VTEC values are computed and compared with the final IGS-global ionospheric map (IGS-GIM) counterparts in three successive days under high solar activity including one of an extreme geomagnetic activity. The real-time satellite DCBs are also estimated and compared with the IGS-GIM counterparts. Moreover, the real-time receiver DCB for six IGS stations are obtained and compared with the IGS-GIM counterparts. The examined stations are located in different latitudes with different receiver types. The findings reveal that the estimated RT-VTEC values show agreement with the IGS-GIM counterparts with root mean-square-errors (RMSEs) values less than 2 TEC units. In addition, RMSEs of both the satellites and receivers DCBs are less than 0.85 ns and 0.65 ns, respectively in comparison with the IGS-GIM.

  12. A gene-wavelet model for long lead time drought forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Özger, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    Drought forecasting is an essential ingredient for drought risk and sustainable water resources management. Due to increasing water demand and looming climate change, precise drought forecasting models have recently been receiving much attention. Beginning with a brief discussion of different drought forecasting models, this study presents a new hybrid gene-wavelet model, namely wavelet-linear genetic programing (WLGP), for long lead-time drought forecasting. The idea of WLGP is to detect and optimize the number of significant spectral bands of predictors in order to forecast the original predictand (drought index) directly. Using the observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation indicator (NINO 3.4 index) and Palmer's modified drought index (PMDI) as predictors and future PMDI as predictand, we proposed the WLGP model to forecast drought conditions in the State of Texas with 3, 6, and 12-month lead times. We compared the efficiency of the model with those of a classic linear genetic programing model developed in this study, a neuro-wavelet (WANN), and a fuzzy-wavelet (WFL) drought forecasting models formerly presented in the relevant literature. Our results demonstrated that the classic linear genetic programing model is unable to learn the non-linearity of drought phenomenon in the lead times longer than 3 months; however, the WLGP can be effectively used to forecast drought conditions having 3, 6, and 12-month lead times. Genetic-based sensitivity analysis among the input spectral bands showed that NINO 3.4 index has strong potential effect in drought forecasting of the study area with 6-12-month lead times.

  13. Time Series Models of Silver and Lead Contamination in San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Squire, S.; Scelfo, G. H.; Revenaugh, J.; Flegal, A. R.

    2001-12-01

    Measurements of silver and lead concentrations in San Francisco Bay waters from 1989 to 1998, along with associated water quality parameters, provide new insights into their biogeochemical cycling within the estuary. Both elements have similar biogeochemical properties and both have been relatively enriched in the estuary by anthropogenic inputs (dissolved trace metal decadal mean: Ag ~ 5.7 ng kg-1 and Pb ~ 31 ng kg-1 in the southern reach). Time series models confirm that dissolved lead concentrations have remained essentially constant over the past decade, as previously indicated by stable lead isotopic composition measurements and mass balance calculations. Conversely, the models show statistically significant decreases in dissolved silver concentrations over the same time period. This disparity is consistent with the differences in contemporary anthropogenic inputs of those metals to the estuary, where there has been a 3-fold decrease in industrial silver inputs over the last decade, but where industrial lead inputs have remained relatively high due to the persistent discharge of historic industrial lead deposits in its drainage basin.

  14. Understanding selection bias, time-lags and measurement bias in secondary data sources: Putting the Encyclopedia of Associations database in broader context.

    PubMed

    Bevan, Shaun; Baumgartner, Frank R; Johnson, Erik W; McCarthy, John D

    2013-11-01

    Secondary data gathered for purposes other than research play an important role in the social sciences. A recent data release has made an important source of publicly available data on associational interests, the Encyclopedia of Associations (EA), readily accessible to scholars (www.policyagendas.org). In this paper we introduce these new data and systematically investigate issues of lag between events and subsequent reporting in the EA, as these have important but under-appreciated effects on time-series statistical models. We further analyze the accuracy and coverage of the database in numerous ways. Our study serves as a guide to potential users of this database, but we also reflect upon a number of issues that should concern all researchers who use secondary data such as newspaper records, IRS reports and FBI Uniform Crime Reports. PMID:24090865

  15. River basin flood potential inferred using GRACE gravity observations at several months lead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reager, J. T.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2014-08-01

    The wetness of a watershed determines its response to precipitation, leading to variability in flood generation. The importance of total water storage--which includes snow, surface water, soil moisture and groundwater--for the predisposition of a region to flooding is less clear, in part because such comprehensive observations are rarely available. Here we demonstrate that basin-scale estimates of water storage derived from satellite observations of time-variable gravity can be used to characterize regional flood potential and may ultimately result in longer lead times in flood warnings. We use a case study of the catastrophic 2011 Missouri River floods to establish a relationship between river discharge, as measured by gauge stations, and basin-wide water storage, as measured remotely by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Applying a time-lagged autoregressive model of river discharge, we show that the inclusion of GRACE-based total water storage information allows us to assess the predisposition of a river basin to flooding as much as 5-11 months in advance. Additional case studies of flood events in the Columbia River and Indus River basins further illustrate that longer lead-time flood prediction requires accurate information on the complete hydrologic state of a river basin.

  16. Sympathetic bias.

    PubMed

    Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

    2008-06-01

    We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation. PMID:17925315

  17. Utilization of bark pockets as time capsules of atmospheric-lead pollution in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Åberg, Gøran; Abrahamsen, Gunnar; Steinnes, Eiliv; Hjelmseth, Harry

    The outer bark being enveloped by and grown into the tree trunk (bark pocket), acts as a passive biomonitor which readily accumulates pollution on its surface. Analysed with stable lead isotopes, these environmental historical archives are very strong candidates for unwinding pollution history. The Røros sulphide ore district, central Norway, has a well-documented mining activity which started in 1647 and the quarrying and smelting in Røros was easily monitored from the middle of the 18th century until the smelting stopped in 1977. Thereafter other sources, like the increase in use of leaded gasoline and further on its outphasing, can be followed. In southern Norway analyses of bark pockets show a good correlation with Pb isotope data from peat cores and tree rings. This region has not been dominated by a single source for many centuries. From the 17th century until about 1925 coal firing and ore smelting in England and on the continent were the dominating sources of pollution in southwestern Norway. From about 1925 and until about 1950 other sources like waste burning contributed, and from about 1950 onwards the pollution has been a mixture of mainly leaded gasoline, coal and coke firing, and incineration of waste. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate the historical changes of environmental pollution in Norway during the last several hundred years up to the present time using tree bark pockets as pollution time capsules. Analyses of stable lead isotopes makes it possible to trace and identify lead from different sources of pollution and atmospherically transported lead deposited in central and southern Norway. Of special interest is the relationship between the industrialization of Europe and the global environmental pollution. Understanding this evolution is of considerable value for evaluating the present day situation.

  18. Electrophysiological evidence of the time course of attentional bias in non-patients reporting symptoms of depression with and without co-occurring anxiety

    PubMed Central

    Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Silton, Rebecca L.; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Crocker, Laura D.; Edgar, J. Christopher; Mimnaugh, Katherine J.; Miller, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Anxiety is characterized by attentional biases to threat, but findings are inconsistent for depression. To address this inconsistency, the present study systematically assessed the role of co-occurring anxiety in attentional bias in depression. In addition, the role of emotional valence, arousal, and gender was explored. Ninety-two non-patients completed the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (Meyer et al., 1990; Molina and Borkovec, 1994) and portions of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire (Watson et al., 1995a,1995b). Individuals reporting high levels of depression and low levels of anxiety (depression only), high levels of depression and anxiety (combined), or low levels of both (control) completed an emotion-word Stroop task during event-related brain potential recording. Pleasant and unpleasant words were matched on emotional arousal level. An attentional bias was not evident in the depression-only group. Women in the combined group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, and the combined group as a whole had larger right-lateralized P300 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early and later attentional bias that is specific to unpleasant valence in the combined group. Men in the control group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early attentional bias that is specific to pleasant valence. The present study indicates that the nature and time course of attention prompted by emotional valence and not arousal differentiates depression with and without anxiety, with some evidence of gender moderating early effects. Overall, results suggest that co-occurring anxiety is more important than previously acknowledged in demonstrating evidence of attentional biases in depression. PMID:24782804

  19. A seller-buyer supply chain model with exponential distribution lead time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahri, Mehrab; Tarokh, Mohammad Jafar

    2012-08-01

    Supply chain is an accepted way of remaining in the competition in today's rapidly changing market. This paper presents a coordinated seller-buyer supply chain model in two stages, which is called Joint Economic Lot Sizing (JELS) in literature. The delivery activities in the supply chain consist of a single raw material. We assume that the delivery lead time is stochastic and follows an exponential distribution. Also, the shortage during the lead time is permitted and completely back-ordered for the buyer. With these assumptions, the annual cost function of JELS is minimized. At the end, a numerical example is presented to show that the integrated approach considerably improves the costs in comparison with the independent decisions by seller and buyer.

  20. Verification of short lead time forecast models: applied to Kp and Dst forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus

    2016-04-01

    In the ongoing EU/H2020 project PROGRESS models that predicts Kp, Dst, and AE from L1 solar wind data will be used as inputs to radiation belt models. The possible lead times from L1 measurements are shorter (10s of minutes to hours) than the typical duration of the physical phenomena that should be forecast. Under these circumstances several metrics fail to single out trivial cases, such as persistence. In this work we explore metrics and approaches for short lead time forecasts. We apply these to current Kp and Dst forecast models. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637302.

  1. Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

    PubMed

    McNair, Douglas S

    2015-01-01

    In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks. PMID:26340239

  2. Analog filtering methods improve leading edge timing performance of multiplexed SiPMs.

    PubMed

    Bieniosek, M F; Cates, J W; Grant, A M; Levin, C S

    2016-08-21

    Multiplexing many SiPMs to a single readout channel is an attractive option to reduce the readout complexity of high performance time of flight (TOF) PET systems. However, the additional dark counts and shaping from each SiPM cause significant baseline fluctuations in the output waveform, degrading timing measurements using a leading edge threshold. This work proposes the use of a simple analog filtering network to reduce the baseline fluctuations in highly multiplexed SiPM readouts. With 16 SiPMs multiplexed, the FWHM coincident timing resolution for single [Formula: see text] mm LYSO crystals was improved from 401  ±  4 ps without filtering to 248  ±  5 ps with filtering. With 4 SiPMs multiplexed, using an array of [Formula: see text] mm LFS crystals the mean time resolution was improved from 436  ±  6 ps to 249  ±  2 ps. Position information was acquired with a novel binary positioning network. All experiments were performed at room temperature with no active temperature regulation. These results show a promising technique for the construction of high performance multiplexed TOF PET readout systems using analog leading edge timing pickoff. PMID:27484131

  3. Analog filtering methods improve leading edge timing performance of multiplexed SiPMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bieniosek, M. F.; Cates, J. W.; Grant, A. M.; Levin, C. S.

    2016-08-01

    Multiplexing many SiPMs to a single readout channel is an attractive option to reduce the readout complexity of high performance time of flight (TOF) PET systems. However, the additional dark counts and shaping from each SiPM cause significant baseline fluctuations in the output waveform, degrading timing measurements using a leading edge threshold. This work proposes the use of a simple analog filtering network to reduce the baseline fluctuations in highly multiplexed SiPM readouts. With 16 SiPMs multiplexed, the FWHM coincident timing resolution for single 3~\\text{mm}× 3~\\text{mm}× 20 mm LYSO crystals was improved from 401  ±  4 ps without filtering to 248  ±  5 ps with filtering. With 4 SiPMs multiplexed, using an array of 3~\\text{mm}× 3~\\text{mm}× 20 mm LFS crystals the mean time resolution was improved from 436  ±  6 ps to 249  ±  2 ps. Position information was acquired with a novel binary positioning network. All experiments were performed at room temperature with no active temperature regulation. These results show a promising technique for the construction of high performance multiplexed TOF PET readout systems using analog leading edge timing pickoff.

  4. Reversing Stimulus Timing in Visual Conditioning Leads to Memories with Opposite Valence in Drosophila

    PubMed Central

    Vogt, Katrin; Yarali, Ayse; Tanimoto, Hiromu

    2015-01-01

    Animals need to associate different environmental stimuli with each other regardless of whether they temporally overlap or not. Drosophila melanogaster displays olfactory trace conditioning, where an odor is followed by electric shock reinforcement after a temporal gap, leading to conditioned odor avoidance. Reversing the stimulus timing in olfactory conditioning results in the reversal of memory valence such that an odor that follows shock is later on approached (i.e. relief conditioning). Here, we explored the effects of stimulus timing on memory in another sensory modality, using a visual conditioning paradigm. We found that flies form visual memories of opposite valence depending on stimulus timing and can associate a visual stimulus with reinforcement despite being presented with a temporal gap. These results suggest that associative memories with non-overlapping stimuli and the effect of stimulus timing on memory valence are shared across sensory modalities. PMID:26430885

  5. Reversing Stimulus Timing in Visual Conditioning Leads to Memories with Opposite Valence in Drosophila.

    PubMed

    Vogt, Katrin; Yarali, Ayse; Tanimoto, Hiromu

    2015-01-01

    Animals need to associate different environmental stimuli with each other regardless of whether they temporally overlap or not. Drosophila melanogaster displays olfactory trace conditioning, where an odor is followed by electric shock reinforcement after a temporal gap, leading to conditioned odor avoidance. Reversing the stimulus timing in olfactory conditioning results in the reversal of memory valence such that an odor that follows shock is later on approached (i.e. relief conditioning). Here, we explored the effects of stimulus timing on memory in another sensory modality, using a visual conditioning paradigm. We found that flies form visual memories of opposite valence depending on stimulus timing and can associate a visual stimulus with reinforcement despite being presented with a temporal gap. These results suggest that associative memories with non-overlapping stimuli and the effect of stimulus timing on memory valence are shared across sensory modalities. PMID:26430885

  6. Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

    PubMed

    Petzoldt, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. PMID:27428866

  7. Directional selection for flowering time leads to adaptive evolution in Raphanus raphanistrum (Wild radish).

    PubMed

    Ashworth, Michael B; Walsh, Michael J; Flower, Ken C; Vila-Aiub, Martin M; Powles, Stephen B

    2016-04-01

    Herbicides have been the primary tool for controlling large populations of yield depleting weeds from agro-ecosystems, resulting in the evolution of widespread herbicide resistance. In response, nonherbicidal techniques have been developed which intercept weed seeds at harvest before they enter the soil seed bank. However, the efficiency of these techniques allows an intense selection for any trait that enables weeds to evade collection, with early-flowering ecotypes considered likely to result in early seed shedding. Using a field-collected wild radish population, five recurrent generations were selected for early maturity and three generations for late maturity. Phenology associated with flowering time and growth traits were measured. Our results demonstrate the adaptive capacity of wild radish to halve its time to flowering following five generations of early-flowering selection. Early-maturing phenotypes had reduced height and biomass at maturity, leading to less competitive, more prostrate growth forms. Following three generations of late-flowering selection, wild radish doubled its time to flowering time leading to increased biomass and flowering height at maturity. This study demonstrates the potential for the rapid evolution in growth traits in response to highly effective seed collection techniques that imposed a selection on weed populations within agro-ecosystems at harvest. PMID:27099626

  8. ALERT-ES EEWS in Southwest Iberia: feasibility and lead-time estimations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazos, Antonio; Colom, Yolanda; Lozano, Lucía; Romeu, Nuria; Matín Davila, José; Carranza, Marta; Zollo, Aldo; Buforn, Elisa; Goula, Xavier; Carrilho, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) should provide quick earthquake information and predict ground motion prior to the destructive S-waves arrive. One objective of the Spanish ALERT-ES project (CGL2010-19803-C03) is to study the feasibility of an EEWS for the SW of Iberian Peninsula, selecting two test sites (the S. Vicente cape area and the Gulf of Cádiz). These regions are characterized by the occurrence of large and damaging earthquakes such as the 1755 Lisbon (Imax=X) or 1969 S. Vicente Cape (Ms=8,1) shocks. In this work, we have used three different software packages (Earthworm, SeiscomP3 and PRESTo) to compare the efficiency of their different modules (picking, binder and location modules) in order to be used as an EEWS (new modules for Earthworms and SeiscomP3 are being developed, mainly a quick magnitude estimation module based in the analysis of the first few seconds of the the P-wave arrival). This pilot experience was carried out on four previously selected events (two in each test site). We analyse the origin time and location error using several software and seismic net configurations. A study about the blind zone and the available lead-time to selected targets (Huelva, Seville, Cádiz in Spain and Faro and Portimao in Portugal) was also performed. The results, using the existing seismic BB stations in the area, shown a blind zone in SW Portugal for earthquakes in S. Vicente and a blind zone in the Huelva and Cádiz (SW Spain) region for earthquakes in the Gulf of Cádiz. A 6 station binder provided the best compromise between the location error and available lead- time to targets, mainly due to the bad azimuthal coverage. For S. Vicente earthquakes, the lead-time time is 30/40 seconds for Huelva, 50/60 seconds for Cádiz, 60/70 seconds for Seville, about 10 seconds for Faro and Portimao follows inside the blind zone. For the Gulf of Cádiz earthquakes, Huelva, Cádiz and Faro are inside the blind zone, and lead-time is around 10/15 seconds for

  9. Real-time Assay of Toxic Lead in In Vivo Living Plant Tissue

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Nack Joo; Youn, Minsang; Kim, Yongwook; Sung, Yeolmin; Kim, Dohoon

    2013-01-01

    A method of detecting lead was developed using square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) with DNA-carbon nanotube paste electrode (CNTPE). The results indicated a sensitive oxidation peak current of lead on the DNA-CNTPE. The curves were obtained within a concentration range of 50 ngL−1-20 mgL−1 with preconcentration time of 100, 200, and 400 sec at the concentration of mgL−1, μgL−1, and ngL−1, respectively. The observed relative standard deviation was 0.101% (n = 12) in the lead concentration of 30.0 μgL−1 under optimum conditions. The low detection limit (S/N) was pegged at 8 ngL−1 (2.6 × 10−8 M). Results showed that the developed method can be used in real-time assay in vivo without requiring any pretreatment and pharmaceutical samples, and food samples, as well as other materials requiring water source contamination analyses. PMID:24578800

  10. RNA Amplification Protocol Leads to Biased Polymerase Chain Reaction Results Especially for Low-Copy Transcripts of Human Bone Marrow-Derived Stromal Cells

    PubMed Central

    Coenen, Carolin; Liedtke, Stefanie; Kogler, Gesine

    2015-01-01

    The amplification of RNA is becoming increasingly important, as often only limited amounts of cells are available for gene expression analysis. In this study, the gene expression profile of the 39 human homeobox (HOX) genes was analyzed in bone marrow-derived multipotent stromal cells (BM-MSCs) by reverse transcription (RT-) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). For further unlimited gene expression analysis, Whole Transcriptome Amplification (WTA) was used to amplify RNA from human BM-MSCs. However, WTA led to biased RT- and qPCR results, and even non-detectability of HOX transcripts compared to non-amplified BM-MSC samples which instead revealed transcription. It is important to note that the same RNA of the respective human BM-MSC line was used for normal cDNA synthesis by standard reverse transcription (non-amplified RT samples) and for cDNA synthesis by WTA (amplified WTA samples). On this account, the different RT- and qPCR results were unexpected applying WTA. The significantly reduced detection of HOX transcripts after WTA has been demonstrated for numerous BM-MSC lines (n = 26) by RT-PCR analysis. Furthermore, undetectable HOX transcripts meaning HOX transcripts of human BM-MSCs that were detected after normal cDNA synthesis, but were no longer detectable after WTA, were consistently observed by qPCR analysis. Finally, qPCR experiments revealed a possible explanation for the differences between amplified and non-amplified BM-MSC samples: an inverse correlation between the biased qPCR results and the low expression level of the respective HOX gene. The PCR analysis of high-copy transcripts like GAPDH or RPL13A revealed unchanged qPCR results after WTA compared to corresponding non-amplified BM-MSC samples. In contrast, WTA led to biased qPCR results for medium-copy HOX transcripts, and even non-detectability of low-copy HOX transcripts of human BM-MSCs resulting in false negative RT- and qPCR data applying WTA. PMID:26485654

  11. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission. PMID:26818710

  12. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission.

  13. Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y Y

    2016-01-01

    Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission. PMID:26818710

  14. Hindsight Bias.

    PubMed

    Roese, Neal J; Vohs, Kathleen D

    2012-09-01

    Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias. PMID:26168501

  15. A new order splitting model with stochastic lead times for deterioration items

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazvar, Zeinab; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad Reza; Baboli, Armand

    2014-09-01

    In unreliable supply environments, the strategy of pooling lead time risks by splitting replenishment orders among multiple suppliers simultaneously is an attractive sourcing policy that has captured the attention of academic researchers and corporate managers alike. While various assumptions are considered in the models developed, researchers tend to overlook an important inventory category in order splitting models: deteriorating items. In this paper, we study an order splitting policy for a retailer that sells a deteriorating product. The inventory system is modelled as a continuous review system (s, Q) under stochastic lead time. Demand rate per unit time is assumed to be constant over an infinite planning horizon and shortages are backordered completely. We develop two inventory models. In the first model, it is assumed that all the requirements are supplied by only one source, whereas in the second, two suppliers are available. We use sensitivity analysis to determine the situations in which each sourcing policy is the most economic. We then study a real case from the European pharmaceutical industry to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed models. Finally, more promising directions are suggested for future research.

  16. Real-time estimation of lead-acid battery parameters: A dynamic data-driven approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yue; Shen, Zheng; Ray, Asok; Rahn, Christopher D.

    2014-12-01

    This short paper presents a recently reported dynamic data-driven method, Symbolic Dynamic Filtering (SDF), for real-time estimation of the state-of-health (SOH) and state-of-charge (SOC) in lead-acid batteries, as an alternative to model-based analysis techniques. In particular, SOC estimation relies on a k-NN regression algorithm while SOH estimation is obtained from the divergence between extracted features. The results show that the proposed data-driven method successfully distinguishes battery voltage responses under different SOC and SOH situations.

  17. Lagrangian bias in the local bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Frusciante, Noemi; Sheth, Ravi K. E-mail: sheth@ictp.it

    2012-11-01

    It is often assumed that the halo-patch fluctuation field can be written as a Taylor series in the initial Lagrangian dark matter density fluctuation field. We show that if this Lagrangian bias is local, and the initial conditions are Gaussian, then the two-point cross-correlation between halos and mass should be linearly proportional to the mass-mass auto-correlation function. This statement is exact and valid on all scales; there are no higher order contributions, e.g., from terms proportional to products or convolutions of two-point functions, which one might have thought would appear upon truncating the Taylor series of the halo bias function. In addition, the auto-correlation function of locally biased tracers can be written as a Taylor series in the auto-correlation function of the mass; there are no terms involving, e.g., derivatives or convolutions. Moreover, although the leading order coefficient, the linear bias factor of the auto-correlation function is just the square of that for the cross-correlation, it is the same as that obtained from expanding the mean number of halos as a function of the local density only in the large-scale limit. In principle, these relations allow simple tests of whether or not halo bias is indeed local in Lagrangian space. We discuss why things are more complicated in practice. We also discuss our results in light of recent work on the renormalizability of halo bias, demonstrating that it is better to renormalize than not. We use the Lognormal model to illustrate many of our findings.

  18. Evaluating solutions to sponsorship bias.

    PubMed

    Doucet, M; Sismondo, S

    2008-08-01

    More than 40 primary studies, and three recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses, have shown a clear association between pharmaceutical industry funding of clinical trials and pro-industry results. Industry sponsorship biases published scientific research in favour of the sponsors, a result of the strong interest commercial sponsors have in obtaining favourable results. Three proposed remedies to this problem are widely agreed upon among those concerned with the level of sponsorship bias: financial disclosure, reporting standards and trial registries. This paper argues that all of these remedies either fail to address the mechanisms by which pharmaceutical companies' sponsorship leads to biased results-design bias, multiple trials with predictable outcomes, fraud, rhetorical effects and publication bias-or else only inadequately address those mechanisms. As a result, the policies normally proposed for dealing with sponsorship bias are unable to eliminate it. Only completely separating public clinical research from pharmaceutical industry funding can eliminate sponsorship bias. PMID:18667655

  19. Hybrid modeling of lead-acid batteries in frequency and time domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thele, M.; Buller, S.; Sauer, D. U.; De Doncker, R. W.; Karden, E.

    This paper presents an improved impedance-based non-linear simulation model for lead-acid batteries. The parameterization of impedance-based models is difficult for operation profiles with high Ah throughput in short times. Such conditions result in non-steady-state conditions and do not allow precise measurements of impedance parameters. Therefore, the model has been extended by an electrolyte transport model which describes the generation and the transport of sulfuric acid inside the porous electrodes. This expands the model validity as higher Ah throughputs can be simulated now. A description of the Matlab/Simulink implementation and its parameterization in the time domain is given. Furthermore, the advantages and the limits of the improved model are discussed. The model allows for precise modeling of automotive batteries, both in conventional applications and in vehicles with electrically assisted propulsion. It is therefore an important tool for the design of automotive power nets.

  20. Real-Time Observation of Organic Cation Reorientation in Methylammonium Lead Iodide Perovskites.

    PubMed

    Bakulin, Artem A; Selig, Oleg; Bakker, Huib J; Rezus, Yves L A; Müller, Christian; Glaser, Tobias; Lovrincic, Robert; Sun, Zhenhua; Chen, Zhuoying; Walsh, Aron; Frost, Jarvist M; Jansen, Thomas L C

    2015-09-17

    The introduction of a mobile and polarized organic moiety as a cation in 3D lead-iodide perovskites brings fascinating optoelectronic properties to these materials. The extent and the time scales of the orientational mobility of the organic cation and the molecular mechanism behind its motion remain unclear, with different experimental and computational approaches providing very different qualitative and quantitative description of the molecular dynamics. Here we use ultrafast 2D vibrational spectroscopy of methylammonium (MA) lead iodide to directly resolve the rotation of the organic cations within the MAPbI3 lattice. Our results reveal two characteristic time constants of motion. Using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we identify these as a fast (∼300 fs) "wobbling-in-a-cone" motion around the crystal axis and a relatively slow (∼3 ps) jump-like reorientation of the molecular dipole with respect to the iodide lattice. The observed dynamics are essential for understanding the electronic properties of perovskite materials. PMID:26722739

  1. How NOAA/DSCOVR Will Perform during Extreme Space Weather and Why Lead Time Exceeds Expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biesecker, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA/DSCOVR satellite is expected to launch in January, 2015 and replace the NASA/ACE satellite as the L1 Sentinel in early Summer, 2015. Having relied on ACE to provide critical warnings of geomagnetic storms since 1998, it is important for the space weather community to understand how DSCOVR will perform relative to ACE in real-time operations. The WIND/SWE instrument is sufficiently similar to the DSCOVR Faraday Cup that it can be used as a proxy for DSCOVR, with some caveats. We compare the ACE/SWEPAM and WIND/SWE observations for all geomagnetic storm events meeting the criteria of severe or extreme. We also examine time periods where ACE data were compromised by solar energetic particles. We find that DSCOVR will provide a more robust data stream than was provided by ACE during solar cycle 23. We will briefly address the magnetometer, supra-thermal particle measurements, and relativistic proton measurements provided by ACE, of which only the magnetometer is retained on DSCOVR. We also demonstrate that lead time for geomagnetic storm notifications to customers far exceeds the L1 to Earth delay time.

  2. Clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphic timing in wood frogs

    PubMed Central

    Lambert, Max R.

    2015-01-01

    In amphibians, abnormal metamorph sex ratios and sexual development have almost exclusively been considered in response to synthetic compounds like pesticides or pharmaceuticals. However, endocrine-active plant chemicals (i.e. phytoestrogens) are commonly found in agricultural and urban waterways hosting frog populations with deviant sexual development. Yet the effects of these compounds on amphibian development remain predominantly unexplored. Legumes, like clover, are common in agricultural fields and urban yards and exude phytoestrogen mixtures from their roots. These root exudates serve important ecological functions and may also be a source of phytoestrogens in waterways. I show that clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphosis relative to females in low and intermediate doses of root exudate. My results indicate that root exudates are a potential source of contaminants impacting vertebrate development and that humans may be cultivating sexual abnormalities in wildlife by actively managing certain plant species. PMID:27019728

  3. Clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphic timing in wood frogs.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Max R

    2015-12-01

    In amphibians, abnormal metamorph sex ratios and sexual development have almost exclusively been considered in response to synthetic compounds like pesticides or pharmaceuticals. However, endocrine-active plant chemicals (i.e. phytoestrogens) are commonly found in agricultural and urban waterways hosting frog populations with deviant sexual development. Yet the effects of these compounds on amphibian development remain predominantly unexplored. Legumes, like clover, are common in agricultural fields and urban yards and exude phytoestrogen mixtures from their roots. These root exudates serve important ecological functions and may also be a source of phytoestrogens in waterways. I show that clover root exudate produces male-biased sex ratios and accelerates male metamorphosis relative to females in low and intermediate doses of root exudate. My results indicate that root exudates are a potential source of contaminants impacting vertebrate development and that humans may be cultivating sexual abnormalities in wildlife by actively managing certain plant species. PMID:27019728

  4. Introduction to Unconscious Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmelz, Joan T.

    2010-05-01

    We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

  5. Long lead-time flood forecasting using data-driven modeling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, N.; He, J.; Srivastav, R. K.

    2014-12-01

    In spite of numerous structure measures being taken for floods, accurate flood forecasting is essential to condense the damages in hazardous areas considerably. The need of producing more accurate flow forecasts motivates the researchers to develop advanced innovative methods. In this study, it is proposed to develop a hybrid neural network model to exploit the strengths of artificial neural networks (ANNs). The proposed model has two components: i.) Dual - ANN model developed using river flows; and ii.) Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model trained on meteorological data (Rainfall and Snow on ground). Potential model inputs that best represent the process of river basin were selected in stepwise manner by identifying input-output relationship using a linear approach, Partial Correlation Input Selection (PCIS) combined with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) technique. The presented hybrid model was compared with three conventional methods: i) Feed-forward artificial neural network (FF-ANN) using daily river flows; ii) FF-ANN applied on decomposed river flows (low flow, rising limb and falling limb of hydrograph); and iii) Recursive method for daily river flows with lead-time of 7 days. The applicability of the presented model is illustrated through daily river flow data of Bow River, Canada. Data from 1912 to 1976 were used to train the models while data from 1977 to 2006 were used to validate the models. The results of the study indicate that the proposed model is robust enough to capture the non-linear nature of hydrograph and proves to be highly promising to forecast peak flows (extreme values) well in advance (higher lead time).

  6. Time scale separation leads to position-dependent diffusion along a slow coordinate

    PubMed Central

    Berezhkovskii, Alexander; Szabo, Attila

    2011-01-01

    When there is a separation of time scales, an effective description of the dynamics of the slow variables can be obtained by adiabatic elimination of fast ones. For example, for anisotropic Langevin dynamics in two dimensions, the conventional procedure leads to a Langevin equation for the slow coordinate that involves the potential of the mean force. The friction constant along this coordinate remains unchanged. Here, we show that a more accurate, but still Markovian, description of the slow dynamics can be obtained by using position-dependent friction that is related to the time integral of the autocorrelation function of the difference between the actual force and the mean force by a Kirkwood-like formula. The result is generalized to many dimensions, where the slow or reaction coordinate is an arbitrary function of the Cartesian coordinates. When the fast variables are effectively one-dimensional, the additional friction along the slow coordinate can be expressed in closed form for an arbitrary potential. For a cylindrically symmetric channel of varying cross section with winding centerline, our analytical expression immediately yields the multidimensional version of the Zwanzig-Bradley formula for the position-dependent diffusion coefficient. PMID:21861557

  7. BOOK REVIEW: Great Physicists - The Life and Times of Leading Physicists from Galileo to Hawking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, William H.

    2002-11-01

    The author, a former American chemistry professor, has organized his book into nine parts with 29 chapters, covering, in a fairly historical sequence and systemtic conceptual progression, all fundamentals of today's physics: i.e., mechanics, thermodynamics, electromagnetism, statistical mechanics, relativity, quantum mechanics, nuclear physics, particle physics, astronomy-astrophysics-cosmology. Obviously, the 20th century (when about 90% of professional physicists of all time worked) assumes with five topics the dominant role in this enterprise. For each topic, a small number (ranging from one to eight) of leading personalities is selected and the biographies of these 29 physicists, including two women (Marie Curie and Lise Meitner), are presented in some detail together with their achievements in the particular topic. Important relevant contributions of other scholars to each topic are also discussed. In addition, Cropper provides each of the topics with a short 'historical synopsis' justifying his selection of key persons. One may argue that concentrating on leading physicists constitutes an old-fashioned approach to displaying the history and contents of fundamental topics in physics. However, the mixture of biographies and explanation of leading contributions given here will certainly serve for a larger public, not just professional physicists and scientists, as a guide through the exciting development of physical ideas and discoveries. In general, the presentation of the material is quite satisfactory (with only few slips, e.g., in the Meitner story, where the author follows too closely a new biography) and gives the essence of the great advances in physics since the 15th century. One notices perhaps the limitation of the author in cases where no biography in English is available - this would also explain the omission of some of the main contributors to atomic and particle physics, such as Arnold Sommerfeld and Hideki Yukawa, or that French or Russian readers

  8. Inattentional Deafness: Visual Load Leads to Time-Specific Suppression of Auditory Evoked Responses

    PubMed Central

    Molloy, Katharine; Griffiths, Timothy D.; Lavie, Nilli

    2015-01-01

    Due to capacity limits on perception, conditions of high perceptual load lead to reduced processing of unattended stimuli (Lavie et al., 2014). Accumulating work demonstrates the effects of visual perceptual load on visual cortex responses, but the effects on auditory processing remain poorly understood. Here we establish the neural mechanisms underlying “inattentional deafness”—the failure to perceive auditory stimuli under high visual perceptual load. Participants performed a visual search task of low (target dissimilar to nontarget items) or high (target similar to nontarget items) load. On a random subset (50%) of trials, irrelevant tones were presented concurrently with the visual stimuli. Brain activity was recorded with magnetoencephalography, and time-locked responses to the visual search array and to the incidental presence of unattended tones were assessed. High, compared to low, perceptual load led to increased early visual evoked responses (within 100 ms from onset). This was accompanied by reduced early (∼100 ms from tone onset) auditory evoked activity in superior temporal sulcus and posterior middle temporal gyrus. A later suppression of the P3 “awareness” response to the tones was also observed under high load. A behavioral experiment revealed reduced tone detection sensitivity under high visual load, indicating that the reduction in neural responses was indeed associated with reduced awareness of the sounds. These findings support a neural account of shared audiovisual resources, which, when depleted under load, leads to failures of sensory perception and awareness. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The present work clarifies the neural underpinning of inattentional deafness under high visual load. The findings of near-simultaneous load effects on both visual and auditory evoked responses suggest shared audiovisual processing capacity. Temporary depletion of shared capacity in perceptually demanding visual tasks leads to a momentary reduction in

  9. Time trend and determinants of blood lead levels in a Swiss population over a transition period (1984-1993) from leaded to unleaded gasoline use

    SciTech Connect

    Wietlisbach, V.; Rickenbach, M.; Berode, M.

    1995-02-01

    This study analyzes the trend and determinants of blood lead levels in a Swiss region (population 770,000) over the 10-year period following the introduction of unleaded gasoline in 1985. The consumption of unleaded fuel increased rapidly, accounting in 1988 for 36% and in 1992 for 65% of all gasoline sales. Blood lead levels were measured in three representative samples (n = 1700) of the adult population within the framework of a health examination survey carried out in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1992/1993. The geometric mean blood lead levels were, respectively, 0.59, 0.42, and 0.33 {mu}mole/liter in men, 0.41, 0.29, and 0.25 {mu}mole/liter in women. Similar trends have been observed across all age groups, occupational classes, and categories across all age groups, occupational classes, and categories based on smoking, drinking, and dietary habits. The overexposure of city residents, in comparison to village residents, fades out over the observation period. These findings suggest that the changeover from leaded to unleaded gasoline has been the major cause of the blood lead decline. Wine drinking, cigarette smoking, and age appear to be significant determinants of blood lead for both sexes in all three surveys. In contrast, the association is inverse for milk consumption. The multivariate regression analysis shows that wine drinking remains the most important predictor of blood lead, whereas the influence of age increases with time and overcomes the effect of smoking in the third survey. 32 refs., 21 refs., 6 tabs.

  10. Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

    1997-01-01

    Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

  11. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Wennberg, Maria . E-mail: miawennberg@skehus19.ac; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-03-15

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important.

  12. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2014-05-01

    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  13. Laterality and flight: concurrent tests of side-bias and optimality in flying tree swallows.

    PubMed

    Mandel, James T; Ratcliffe, John M; Cerasale, David J; Winkler, David W

    2008-01-01

    Behavioural side-bias occurs in many vertebrates, including birds as a result of hemispheric specialization and can be advantageous by improving response times to sudden stimuli and efficiency in multi-tasking. However, behavioural side-bias can lead to morphological asymmetries resulting in reduced performance for specific activities. For flying animals, wing asymmetry is particularly costly and it is unclear if behavioural side-biases will be expressed in flight; the benefits of quick response time afforded by side-biases must be balanced against the costs of less efficient flight due to the morphological asymmetry side-biases may incur. Thus, competing constraints could lead to context-dependent expression or suppression of side-bias in flight. In repeated flight trials through an outdoor tunnel with obstacles, tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) preferred larger openings, but we did not detect either individual or population-level side-biases. Thus, while observed behavioural side-biases during substrate-foraging and copulation are common in birds, we did not see such side-bias expressed in obstacle avoidance behaviour in flight. This finding highlights the importance of behavioural context for investigations of side-bias and hemispheric laterality and suggests both proximate and ultimate trade-offs between species-specific cognitive ecology and flight biomechanics. PMID:18335028

  14. Analyses of evolutionary dynamics in viruses are hindered by a time-dependent bias in rate estimates

    PubMed Central

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Holmes, Edward C.; Ho, Simon Y. W.

    2014-01-01

    Time-scales of viral evolution and emergence have been studied widely, but are often poorly understood. Molecular analyses of viral evolutionary time-scales generally rely on estimates of rates of nucleotide substitution, which vary by several orders of magnitude depending on the timeframe of measurement. We analysed data from all major groups of viruses and found a strong negative relationship between estimates of nucleotide substitution rate and evolutionary timescale. Strikingly, this relationship was upheld both within and among diverse groups of viruses. A detailed case study of primate lentiviruses revealed that the combined effects of sequence saturation and purifying selection can explain this time-dependent pattern of rate variation. Therefore, our analyses show that studies of evolutionary time-scales in viruses require a reconsideration of substitution rates as a dynamic, rather than as a static, feature of molecular evolution. Improved modelling of viral evolutionary rates has the potential to change our understanding of virus origins. PMID:24850916

  15. Trapped-electron effects on time-independent negative-bias states of a collisionless single-emitter plasma device: Theory and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Crystal, T.L.; Gray, P.C.; Lawson, W.S.; Birdsall, C.K.; Kuhn, S. )

    1991-01-01

    Time-average values from particle simulations of a collisionless, single-emitter plasma device modeling single-ended {ital Q} machines or thermionic converters with a negatively biased collector are presented. These results quantitatively confirm the predictions of collisionless, kinetic plane-diode theory for spatial potential profiles that decrease monotonically. However, simulations of negative-bias potential profiles with a single internal maximum differ significantly from previous theoretical predictions which assumed electron phase space to have either (i) no trapped electrons or (ii) trapped electrons isothermal with the passing electrons. A more general class of trapped-electron model distributions is introduced from which new equilibrium potential values can be recovered that closely match the simulations. These simulations clearly demonstrate the sensitive role that trapped electrons play in shaping the potential profiles of the equilibrium (or slowly evolving) states of the simulated systems. The trapped-electron distributions in these simulations are themselves shown to be controlled critically by fluctuations whose levels are varied by the choice of particle injection scheme. These effects, although found and discussed here in the context of a particular model, are believed to be important in many bounded plasma systems where electrons can be trapped in potential wells.

  16. The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: effect of sample storage time

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franson, J.C.; Hohman, W.L.; Moore, J.L.; Smith, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback ducks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of ≥0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.

  17. Bias in Dynamic Monte Carlo Alpha Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Sweezy, Jeremy Ed; Nolen, Steven Douglas; Adams, Terry R.; Trahan, Travis John

    2015-02-06

    A 1/N bias in the estimate of the neutron time-constant (commonly denoted as α) has been seen in dynamic neutronic calculations performed with MCATK. In this paper we show that the bias is most likely caused by taking the logarithm of a stochastic quantity. We also investigate the known bias due to the particle population control method used in MCATK. We conclude that this bias due to the particle population control method is negligible compared to other sources of bias.

  18. Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

    2014-01-01

    Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

  19. Reducing bias in survival under nonrandom temporary emigration.

    PubMed

    Peñaloza, Claudia L; Kendall, William L; Langtimm, Catherine A

    2014-07-01

    Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard survival parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration, unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates, and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified; nonetheless, there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable nonrandom temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data were effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naive constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, although still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

  20. Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY12 Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Casella, Andrew M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Warren, Glen A.

    2012-09-28

    Executive Summary Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today’s confirmatory methods. This document is a progress report for FY2012 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2012 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel assemblies. PNNL further refined the semi-empirical model developed in FY2011 based on singular value decomposition (SVD) to numerically account for the effects of self-shielding. The average uncertainty in the Pu mass across the NGSI-64 fuel assemblies was shown to be less than 3% using only six calibration assemblies with a 2% uncertainty in the isotopic masses. When calibrated against the six NGSI-64 fuel assemblies, the algorithm was able to determine the total Pu mass within <2% uncertainty for the 27 diversion cases also developed under NGSI. Two purely empirical algorithms were developed that do not require the use of Pu isotopic fission chambers. The semi-empirical and purely empirical algorithms were successfully tested using MCNPX simulations as well applied to experimental data measured by RPI using their LSDS. The algorithms were able to describe the 235U masses of the RPI measurements with an average uncertainty of 2.3%. Analyses were conducted that provided valuable insight with regard to design requirements (e

  1. Biased Allostery.

    PubMed

    Edelstein, Stuart J; Changeux, Jean-Pierre

    2016-09-01

    G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) constitute a large group of integral membrane proteins that transduce extracellular signals from a wide range of agonists into targeted intracellular responses. Although the responses can vary depending on the category of G-proteins activated by a particular receptor, responses were also found to be triggered by interactions of the receptor with β-arrestins. It was subsequently discovered that for the same receptor molecule (e.g., the β-adrenergic receptor), some agonists have a propensity to specifically favor responses by G-proteins, others by β-arrestins, as has now been extensively studied. This feature of the GPCR system is known as biased agonism and is subject to various interpretations, including agonist-induced conformational change versus selective stabilization of preexisting active conformations. Here, we explore a complete allosteric framework for biased agonism based on alternative preexisting conformations that bind more strongly, but nonexclusively, either G-proteins or β-arrestins. The framework incorporates reciprocal effects among all interacting molecules. As a result, G-proteins and β-arrestins are in steric competition for binding to the cytoplasmic surface of either the G-protein-favoring or β-arrestin-favoring GPCR conformation. Moreover, through linkage relations, the strength of the interactions of G-proteins or β-arrestins with the corresponding active conformation potentiates the apparent affinity for the agonist, effectively equating these two proteins to allosteric modulators. The balance between response alternatives can also be influenced by the physiological concentrations of either G-proteins or β-arrestins, as well as by phosphorylation or interactions with positive or negative allosteric modulators. The nature of the interactions in the simulations presented suggests novel experimental tests to distinguish more fully among alternative mechanisms. PMID:27602718

  2. Extended Time on Academic Assignments: Does Increased Time Lead to Improved Performance for Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pariseau, Meaghan E.; Fabiano, Gregory A.; Massetti, Greta M.; Hart, Katie C.; Pelham, William E., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Researchers examined the impact of an extended time accommodation on appropriate classroom behavior and rate of work completion for 33 children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Participants received standard (30 min) or extended (45 min) time to complete seatwork in a within-subject, crossover design study. Appropriate…

  3. Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

    PubMed Central

    van Tuinen, Marcel; Torres, Christopher R.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer

  4. Leading as Emotional Management Work in High Risk Times: The Counterintuitive Impulses of Performativity and Passion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackmore, Jill

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores, through a case study of educational restructuring in Victoria, Australia, how school leaders in a public education system in Australia mediate reform discourses emphasizing managerial and market accountability and the emotional and messy work of teaching and leading. These accountability exercises were often seen by teachers…

  5. Psychological biases in environmental judgments

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, A.

    1985-04-01

    Faced with a complex environment, all of us resort to cognitive over-simplifications and wishful thinking, in an attempt to achieve an often illusory control over our lives. The resulting biases in judgment may lead to unfortunate decisions, as well as exacerbating disputes over such matters as the interpretation of environmental data. The detrimental effects of such biases are sufficient to warrant greater attention to the phenomenon. As a step in this direction, a variety of cognitive and motivated biases are discussed, together with examples of their effect on environmental judgment.

  6. Enhanced time response of 1-in. LaBr3(Ce) crystals by leading edge and constant fraction techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vedia, V.; Mach, H.; Fraile, L. M.; Udías, J. M.; Lalkovski, S.

    2015-09-01

    We have characterized in depth the time response of three detectors equipped with cylindrical LaBr3(Ce) crystals with dimensions of 1-in. in height and 1-in. in diameter, and having nominal Ce doping concentration of 5%, 8% and 10%. Measurements were performed at 60Co and 22Na γ-ray energies against a fast BaF2 reference detector. The time resolution was optimized by the choice of the photomultiplier bias voltage and the fine tuning of the parameters of the constant fraction discriminator, namely the zero-crossing and the external delay. We report here on the optimal time resolution of the three crystals. It is observed that timing properties are influenced by the amount of Ce doping and the crystal homogeneity. For the crystal with 8% of Ce doping the use of the ORTEC 935 CFD at very shorts delays in addition to the Hamamatsu R9779 PMT has made it possible to improve the LaBr3(Ce) time resolution from the best literature value at 60Co photon energies to below 100 ps.

  7. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    SciTech Connect

    Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Chris B; Cherkauer, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977 1999 in the historical period and 2077 2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection.

  8. Predictors and grouping for bias correction of radiosonde temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milan, M.; Haimberger, L.

    2015-10-01

    Due to various causes, artificial biases can be found in meteorological observations. The use of biased observations in the assimilation process leads to systematic errors in the resulting analysis unless special measures are taken during the data assimilation. One such method that avoids the assumption of unbiased input observations is the variational bias correction (VarBC), which is used successfully within the (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) operational system, mainly to deal with satellite radiance data. In VarBC the bias of the given observation is estimated using a linear predictor model based on a small number of predefined predictors and the corresponding unknown bias parameters. These are estimated together with the model state by including a bias term in the cost function of the variational analysis. The radiosonde temperature biases depend mainly on pressure, on solar elevation, and on the instrumentation used. The optimal choice of the grouping of radiosonde stations (to get larger samples) and of the bias models is not obvious. While the method should be used in a 4D-VAR setting, its properties can be estimated off-line with much less computational effort. In this paper different methods for the grouping and the bias model are investigated, both using and not using metadata. At the same time the statistics are compared with the output of two independent homogeneity adjustment algorithms. The major outcome of this work is, apart from the development of predictors model suitable for VarBC, the detection of the high variability in the bias using grouping based on metadata.

  9. Simulation of blast-induced, early-time intracranial wave physics leading to traumatic brain injury.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Paul Allen; Ford, Corey C.

    2008-04-01

    U.S. soldiers are surviving blast and impacts due to effective body armor, trauma evacuation and care. Blast injuries are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in military personnel returning from combat. Understanding of Primary Blast Injury may be needed to develop better means of blast mitigation strategies. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of blast direction and strength on the resulting mechanical stress and wave energy distributions generated in the brain.

  10. Ensemble forecasts of monthly catchment rainfall out to long lead times by post-processing coupled general circulation model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.

    2014-11-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts with long lead time are being sought by water managers in Australia. In this study, we take a first step towards a monthly streamflow modelling approach by harnessing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) to produce monthly rainfall forecasts for three catchments across Australia. Bayesian methodologies are employed to produce forecasts based on CGCM raw rainfall forecasts and also CGCM sea surface temperature forecasts. The Schaake Shuffle is used to connect forecast ensemble members of individual months to form ensemble monthly time series forecasts. Monthly forecasts and three-monthly forecasts of rainfall are assessed for lead times of 0-6 months, based on leave-one-year-out cross-validation for 1980-2010. The approach is shown to produce well-calibrated ensemble forecasts that source skill from both the atmospheric and ocean modules of the CGCM. Although skill is generally low, moderate skill scores are observed in some catchments for lead times of up to 6 months. In months and catchments where there is limited skill, the forecasts revert to climatology. Thus the forecasts developed can be considered suitable for continuously forecasting time series of streamflow to long lead times, when coupled with a suitable monthly hydrological model.

  11. Alignment of leading-edge and peak-picking time of arrival methods to obtain accurate source locations

    SciTech Connect

    Roussel-Dupre, R.; Symbalisty, E.; Fox, C.; and Vanderlinde, O.

    2009-08-01

    The location of a radiating source can be determined by time-tagging the arrival of the radiated signal at a network of spatially distributed sensors. The accuracy of this approach depends strongly on the particular time-tagging algorithm employed at each of the sensors. If different techniques are used across the network, then the time tags must be referenced to a common fiducial for maximum location accuracy. In this report we derive the time corrections needed to temporally align leading-edge, time-tagging techniques with peak-picking algorithms. We focus on broadband radio frequency (RF) sources, an ionospheric propagation channel, and narrowband receivers, but the final results can be generalized to apply to any source, propagation environment, and sensor. Our analytic results are checked against numerical simulations for a number of representative cases and agree with the specific leading-edge algorithm studied independently by Kim and Eng (1995) and Pongratz (2005 and 2007).

  12. Matching times of leading and following suggest cooperation through direct reciprocity during V-formation flight in ibis

    PubMed Central

    Voelkl, Bernhard; Portugal, Steven J.; Unsöld, Markus; Usherwood, James R.; Wilson, Alan M.; Fritz, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    One conspicuous feature of several larger bird species is their annual migration in V-shaped or echelon formation. When birds are flying in these formations, energy savings can be achieved by using the aerodynamic up-wash produced by the preceding bird. As the leading bird in a formation cannot profit from this up-wash, a social dilemma arises around the question of who is going to fly in front? To investigate how this dilemma is solved, we studied the flight behavior of a flock of juvenile Northern bald ibis (Geronticus eremita) during a human-guided autumn migration. We could show that the amount of time a bird is leading a formation is strongly correlated with the time it can itself profit from flying in the wake of another bird. On the dyadic level, birds match the time they spend in the wake of each other by frequent pairwise switches of the leading position. Taken together, these results suggest that bald ibis cooperate by directly taking turns in leading a formation. On the proximate level, we propose that it is mainly the high number of iterations and the immediacy of reciprocation opportunities that favor direct reciprocation. Finally, we found evidence that the animals' propensity to reciprocate in leading has a substantial influence on the size and cohesion of the flight formations. PMID:25646487

  13. Finite-time full counting statistics and factorial cumulants for transport through a quantum dot with normal and superconducting leads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droste, Stephanie; Governale, Michele

    2016-04-01

    We study the finite-time full counting statistics for subgap transport through a single-level quantum dot tunnel-coupled to one normal and one superconducting lead. In particular, we determine the factorial and the ordinary cumulants both for finite times and in the long-time limit. We find that the factorial cumulants violate the sign criterion, indicating a non-binomial distribution, even in absence of Coulomb repulsion due to the presence of superconducting correlations. At short times the cumulants exhibit oscillations which are a signature of the coherent transfer of Cooper pairs between the dot and the superconductor.

  14. Finite-time full counting statistics and factorial cumulants for transport through a quantum dot with normal and superconducting leads.

    PubMed

    Droste, Stephanie; Governale, Michele

    2016-04-13

    We study the finite-time full counting statistics for subgap transport through a single-level quantum dot tunnel-coupled to one normal and one superconducting lead. In particular, we determine the factorial and the ordinary cumulants both for finite times and in the long-time limit. We find that the factorial cumulants violate the sign criterion, indicating a non-binomial distribution, even in absence of Coulomb repulsion due to the presence of superconducting correlations. At short times the cumulants exhibit oscillations which are a signature of the coherent transfer of Cooper pairs between the dot and the superconductor. PMID:26963047

  15. Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

    PubMed

    Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

    2000-08-01

    An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampling of trajectories is then biased, but the sampling is unbiased when the trajectory outcomes are multiplied by their weights. With a suitable choice of the biasing force, more reacted trajectories are sampled. As a consequence, the variance of the estimate is reduced. In our test case, biased Brownian dynamics gives a sevenfold improvement in central processing unit (CPU) time with the choice of a simple centripetal biasing force. PMID:10919998

  16. Revisiting the question: Does high-latitude solar activity lead low-latitude solar activity in time phase?

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, D. F.; Qu, Z. N.; Guo, Q. L.

    2014-05-01

    Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are used to investigate whether high-latitude solar activity leads low-latitude solar activity in time phase or not, using the data of the Carte Synoptique solar filaments archive from 1919 March to 1989 December. From the cross-correlation analysis, high-latitude solar filaments have a time lead of 12 Carrington solar rotations with respect to low-latitude ones. Both the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence indicate that high-latitude solar filaments lead low-latitude ones in time phase. Furthermore, low-latitude solar activity is better correlated with high-latitude solar activity of the previous cycle than with that of the following cycle, which is statistically significant. Thus, the present study confirms that high-latitude solar activity in the polar regions is indeed better correlated with the low-latitude solar activity of the following cycle than with that of the previous cycle, namely, leading in time phase.

  17. How quantization of gravity leads to a discrete space-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    't Hooft, Gerard

    2016-03-01

    The idea that the Planck length is the smallest unit of length, and the Planck time the smallest unit of time, is natural, and has been suggested many times. One can, however, also derive this more rigorously, using nothing more than the fact that black holes emit particles, according to Hawking's theory, and that these particles interact gravitationally. It is then observed that the particles, going in and out, form quantum states bouncing against the horizon. The dynamics of these microstates can be described in a partial wave expansion, but Hawking's expression for the entropy then requires a cut-off in the transverse momentum, in the form of a Brillouin zone, and this implies that these particles live on a lattice.

  18. Observing expertise-related actions leads to perfect time flow estimations.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yin-Hua; Pizzolato, Fabio; Cesari, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The estimation of the time of exposure of a picture portraying an action increases as a function of the amount of movement implied in the action represented. This effect suggests that the perceiver creates an internal embodiment of the action observed as if internally simulating the entire movement sequence. Little is known however about the timing accuracy of these internal action simulations, specifically whether they are affected by the level of familiarity and experience that the observer has of the action. In this study we asked professional pianists to reproduce different durations of exposure (shorter or longer than one second) of visual displays both specific (a hand in piano-playing action) and non-specific to their domain of expertise (a hand in finger-thumb opposition and scrambled-pixels) and compared their performance with non-pianists. Pianists outperformed non-pianists independently of the time of exposure of the stimuli; remarkably the group difference was particularly magnified by the pianists' enhanced accuracy and stability only when observing the hand in the act of playing the piano. These results for the first time provide evidence that through musical training, pianists create a selective and self-determined dynamic internal representation of an observed movement that allows them to estimate precisely its temporal duration. PMID:23405131

  19. [Influence of Reaction Time on Titanate Nanomaterials and Its Adsorptioi Capability for Lead in Aqueous Solutions].

    PubMed

    Fan, Gong-duan; Chen, Li-ru; Lin, Ru-jing; Lin, Qian; Su, Zhao-yue; Lin, Xiu-yong

    2016-02-15

    Titanate nanomaterials (TNs) were synthesized via a simple hydrothermal method using TiO2 (ST-01) and NaOH as the raw materials, and presented different morphologies by adjusting the reaction time. The physico-chemical properties of the as-prepared TNs, such as morphology, structure, surface area, and chemical composition were characterized by XRD, SEM and BET. The adsorption capability and rules of Pb(II) in aqueous solutions were tested in the static system. The results showed that the TNs prepared with 12-72 h reaction time were pure monoclinic phase titanate and their specific surface areas were in the range from 243.05 m2 x g(-1) to 286.20 m2 x g(-1). TNs with reaction time between 12-36 h mainly showed sheet structure, and those with reaction time higher than 48 h showed linear structure. The adsorption capacity of Pb(II) by TNs-12, TNs-24, TNs-36, TNs-48, TNs-60 and TNs-72 was 479.40, 504.12, 482.00, 388.10, 364.60 and 399.00 mg x g(-1), respectively. The sheet TNs had a better adsorption capacity than the linear TNs. TNs-24 had the highest adsorbing capacity. The adsorption kinetics of Pb(II) by TNs-24 followed the pseudo-second-order model, and the equilibrium data was best fitted with the Langmuir isotherm model. The equilibrium adsorption time of TNs-24 was 120 min, and the adsorption was an exothermic process, with a high adsorption capacity at low temperature or room temperature; the optimal adsorption pH was 5.0. When pH was 1.0, the desorption rate of TNs-24 could reach 99.00%, and the removal efficiency of Pb(II) by regenerated TNs was still more than 97% after six times of usage. Therefore, TNs could efficiently remove Pb(II) in aqueous solutions, and the optimal reaction time should be controlled to 12-24 h. When Cd(II) or Ni(II) existed in the solution, the equilibrium adsorption capacity and removal rate of TNs-24 were decreased. The adsorption mechanism was mainly ion-exchanged between Pb(II) and H+/Na+ in TNs. PMID:27363159

  20. Action and perception are temporally coupled by a common mechanism that leads to a timing misperception.

    PubMed

    Pretegiani, Elena; Astefanoaei, Corina; Daye, Pierre M; FitzGibbon, Edmond J; Creanga, Dorina-Emilia; Rufa, Alessandra; Optican, Lance M

    2015-01-28

    We move our eyes to explore the world, but visual areas determining where to look next (action) are different from those determining what we are seeing (perception). Whether, or how, action and perception are temporally coordinated is not known. The preparation time course of an action (e.g., a saccade) has been widely studied with the gap/overlap paradigm with temporal asynchronies (TA) between peripheral target onset and fixation point offset (gap, synchronous, or overlap). However, whether the subjects perceive the gap or overlap, and when they perceive it, has not been studied. We adapted the gap/overlap paradigm to study the temporal coupling of action and perception. Human subjects made saccades to targets with different TAs with respect to fixation point offset and reported whether they perceived the stimuli as separated by a gap or overlapped in time. Both saccadic and perceptual report reaction times changed in the same way as a function of TA. The TA dependencies of the time change for action and perception were very similar, suggesting a common neural substrate. Unexpectedly, in the perceptual task, subjects misperceived lights overlapping by less than ∼100 ms as separated in time (overlap seen as gap). We present an attention-perception model with a map of prominence in the superior colliculus that modulates the stimulus signal's effectiveness in the action and perception pathways. This common source of modulation determines how competition between stimuli is resolved, causes the TA dependence of action and perception to be the same, and causes the misperception. PMID:25632126

  1. Cascading time evolution of dissipative structures leading to unique crystalline textures

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Takeji; Murase, Hiroki

    2015-01-01

    This article reports unique pattern formation processes and mechanisms via crystallization of materials under external flow fields as one of the general problems of open nonequilibrium phenomena in statistical physics. The external fields effectively reduce step-by-step the exceedingly large free energy barriers associated with the reduction of the enormously large entropy necessary for crystallization into unique crystalline textures in the absence of the fields. The cascading reduction of the free energy barrier was discovered to be achieved as a consequence of a cascading evolution of a series of dissipative structures. Moreover, this cascading pattern evolution obeys the Ginzburg–Landau law. It first evolves a series of large-length-scale amorphous precursors driven by liquid–liquid phase separation under a relatively low bulk stress and then small-length-scale structures driven by a large local stress concentrated on the heterogeneous amorphous precursors, eventually leading to the formation of unique crystalline textures which cannot be developed free from the external fields. Here the multi-length-scale heterogeneous structures developed in the amorphous precursors play a dominant role in the triggering of the crystallization in the local regions subjected to a large stress concentration even under a relatively small applied bulk stress. PMID:25610628

  2. Precise Feature Based Time Scales and Frequency Decorrelation Lead to a Sparse Auditory Code

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chen; Read, Heather L.; Escabí, Monty A.

    2012-01-01

    Sparse redundancy reducing codes have been proposed as efficient strategies for representing sensory stimuli. A prevailing hypothesis suggests that sensory representations shift from dense redundant codes in the periphery to selective sparse codes in cortex. We propose an alternative framework where sparseness and redundancy depend on sensory integration time scales and demonstrate that the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICC) of cats encodes sound features by precise sparse spike trains. Direct comparisons with auditory cortical neurons demonstrate that ICC responses were sparse and uncorrelated as long as the spike train time scales were matched to the sensory integration time scales relevant to ICC neurons. Intriguingly, correlated spiking in the ICC was substantially lower than predicted by linear or nonlinear models and strictly observed for neurons with best frequencies within a “critical band,” the hallmark of perceptual frequency resolution in mammals. This is consistent with a sparse asynchronous code throughout much of the ICC and a complementary correlation code within a critical band that may allow grouping of perceptually relevant cues. PMID:22723685

  3. Simulation of blast-induced early-time intracranial wave physics leading to traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Paul A; Ford, Corey C

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this modeling and simulation study was to establish the role of stress wave interactions in the genesis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) from exposure to explosive blast. A high resolution (1 mm3 voxels) five material model of the human head was created by segmentation of color cryosections from the Visible Human Female data set. Tissue material properties were assigned from literature values. The model was inserted into the shock physics wave code, CTH, and subjected to a simulated blast wave of 1.3 MPa (13 bars) peak pressure from anterior, posterior, and lateral directions. Three-dimensional plots of maximum pressure, volumetric tension, and deviatoric (shear) stress demonstrated significant differences related to the incident blast geometry. In particular, the calculations revealed focal brain regions of elevated pressure and deviatoric stress within the first 2 ms of blast exposure. Calculated maximum levels of 15 KPa deviatoric, 3.3 MPa pressure, and 0.8 MPa volumetric tension were observed before the onset of significant head accelerations. Over a 2 ms time course, the head model moved only 1 mm in response to the blast loading. Doubling the blast strength changed the resulting intracranial stress magnitudes but not their distribution. We conclude that stress localization, due to early-time wave interactions, may contribute to the development of multifocal axonal injury underlying TBI. We propose that a contribution to traumatic brain injury from blast exposure, and most likely blunt impact, can occur on a time scale shorter than previous model predictions and before the onset of linear or rotational accelerations traditionally associated with the development of TBI. PMID:19449961

  4. Sources of bias in single-trial normalization procedures.

    PubMed

    Ciuparu, Andrei; Mureşan, Raul C

    2016-04-01

    Baseline normalization procedures are essential for the analysis of brain activity. These use statistics of a reference (baseline) period to normalize data along the entire trial (baseline and stimulus periods). A very popular procedure is pseudo z-scoring, traditionally applied to time-frequency spectral power estimates, where it was recently shown to generate positive bias. Bias was thought to arise because of outliers stemming from the skewed distribution of spectral power values. Here we challenge this view and causally show that bias originates from a more general problem that affects a wide array of normalization techniques, including some that are routinely used. We show that bias is caused by the division of correlated terms and that it depends directly on the sign and magnitude of correlation between the numerator and denominator. Correlation emerges either from the properties of the data being normalized or from the properties of the normalization method. z-scoring produces bias when source data have a skewed distribution but it is bias-free when the distribution is symmetric, while methods such as dF/F for fluorescence data lead to bias because the numerator and denominator are inherently correlated. We provide a simple, fast and general solution to reduce and even eliminate bias by welding (fusing) baseline periods of multiple trials into a single, large baseline. This method is generic, can be used to normalize individual trials and provides bias-free estimates given a long enough extended baseline. We show that baseline fusing is superior to more complex techniques that have been proposed before. PMID:26797876

  5. Apnea MedAssist: real-time sleep apnea monitor using single-lead ECG.

    PubMed

    Bsoul, Majdi; Minn, Hlaing; Tamil, Lakshman

    2011-05-01

    We have developed a low-cost, real-time sleep apnea monitoring system ''Apnea MedAssist" for recognizing obstructive sleep apnea episodes with a high degree of accuracy for both home and clinical care applications. The fully automated system uses patient's single channel nocturnal ECG to extract feature sets, and uses the support vector classifier (SVC) to detect apnea episodes. "Apnea MedAssist" is implemented on Android operating system (OS) based smartphones, uses either the general adult subject-independent SVC model or subject-dependent SVC model, and achieves a classification F-measure of 90% and a sensitivity of 96% for the subject-independent SVC. The real-time capability comes from the use of 1-min segments of ECG epochs for feature extraction and classification. The reduced complexity of "Apnea MedAssist" comes from efficient optimization of the ECG processing, and use of techniques to reduce SVC model complexity by reducing the dimension of feature set from ECG and ECG-derived respiration signals and by reducing the number of support vectors. PMID:20952340

  6. Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY11 Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Bowyer, Sonya M.; Casella, Andrew M.; Gesh, Christopher J.; Warren, Glen A.

    2011-09-30

    Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today's confirmatory assay methods. This document is a progress report for FY2011 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2011 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel. PNNL developed an empirical model based on calibration of the LSDS to responses generated from well-characterized used fuel. The empirical model, which accounts for self-shielding effects using empirical basis vectors calculated from the singular value decomposition (SVD) of a matrix containing the true self-shielding functions of the used fuel assembly models. The potential for the direct and independent assay of the sum of the masses of 239Pu and 241Pu to within approximately 3% over a wide used fuel parameter space was demonstrated. Also, in FY2011, PNNL continued to develop an analytical model. Such efforts included the addition of six more non-fissile absorbers in the analytical shielding function and the non-uniformity of the neutron flux across the LSDS assay chamber. A hybrid analytical-empirical approach was developed to determine the mass of total Pu (sum of the masses of 239Pu, 240Pu, and 241Pu), which is an important quantity in safeguards. Results using this hybrid method were of approximately the same accuracy as the pure

  7. Leading through rough times. An interview with Novell's Eric Schmidt. Interview by Bronwyn Fryer.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, E

    2001-05-01

    Few large companies have soared as high, sunk as low, and struggled as long as the 18-year-old networking software maker Novell. For years, the company dominated the market for local area networks, but by 1997, it had faltered due to misguided acquisitions, product missteps, and large unsold inventories. That's when Eric Schmidt arrived from Sun Microsystems to take over as Novell's third CEO. He turned the company around with a deft combination of cost reductions, divestitures, and new product rollouts, and by 1998, it was back in the black. Unfortunately, the good times didn't last, and like most technology companies, Novell is once again struggling with a slowdown in demand. But Schmidt is optimistic about returning Novell to good health, and his strategies suggest ways for other organizations to handle themselves during downturns. He counsels against being overly cautious during such times. It may be necessary to eliminate excess inventory, cut costs, and reduce the size of the staff and the management team in order to stabilize a company. Working to retain those employees whom he calls the "smart people" and keeping them motivated will have long-term payoffs. Further, Schmidt says it is necessary to acknowledge and overcome a "culture of fear," the deadening environment of cynicism in which employees suppress thoughts and feelings because they're worried about layoffs. His additional advice: keep new products coming out to sustain the interest of customers and the press, pay attention to your cash position, stay focused on your desired outcomes, and take heart from other industry leaders. PMID:11345908

  8. HEADWAY TIME AND CRASHES AMONG NOVICE TEENS AND EXPERIENCED ADULT DRIVERS IN A SIMULATED LEAD TRUCK BRAKING SCENARIO.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Catherine C; Seacrist, Thomas S; Lee, Yi-Ching; Loeb, Helen; Kandadai, Venk; Winston, Flaura K

    2013-01-01

    Driving simulators can be used to evaluate driving performance under controlled, safe conditions. Teen drivers are at particular risk for motor vehicle crashes and simulated driving can provide important information on performance. We developed a new simulator protocol, the Simulated Driving Assessment (SDA), with the goal of providing a new tool for driver assessment and a common outcome measure for evaluation of training programs. As an initial effort to examine the validity of the SDA to differentiate performance according to experience, this analysis compared driving behaviors and crashes between novice teens (n=20) and experienced adults (n=17) on a high fidelity simulator for one common crash scenario, a rear-end crash. We examined headway time and crashes during a lead truck with sudden braking event in our SDA. We found that 35% of the novice teens crashed and none of the experienced adults crashed in this lead truck braking event; 50% of the teens versus 25% of the adults had a headway time <3 seconds at the time of truck braking. Among the 10 teens with <3 seconds headway time, 70% crashed. Among all participants with a headway time of 2-3 seconds, further investigation revealed descriptive differences in throttle position and brake pedal force when comparing teens who crashed, teens who did not crash and adults (none of whom crashed). Even with a relatively small sample, we found statistically significant differences in headway time for adults and teens, providing preliminary construct validation for our new SDA. PMID:25197724

  9. Effects of rest time on discharge response and equivalent circuit model for a lead-acid battery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Lalitha; Hu, Tingshu

    2015-05-01

    This work carries out a detailed investigation on the effects of rest time on the discharge response and the parameters of the Thevenin's equivalent circuit model for a lead acid battery. Traditional methods for battery modeling require a long rest time before a discharging test so that a steady state is reached for the open circuit voltage. In a recent work, we developed an algebraic method for parameter identification of circuit models for batteries by applying discharging tests after variable and possibly very short rest time. This new method opens a door to the understanding of the effects of rest time on battery behavior, which may be used for better simulation, analysis and design of battery powered systems for improved battery efficiency and state of health. As we used the new method to extract circuit parameters after different rest times, we observed some unexpected results on the relationship between the rest time and circuit parameters. The initial voltages on the capacitors can be negative and becomes more negative as the rest time is increased. We also observed that the time constants increase with rest time. Relationships between rest time and other parameters are also reported in this paper.

  10. Robust design of (s, S) inventory policy parameters in supply chains with demand and lead time uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karimi Movahed, Kamran; Zhang, Zhi-Hai

    2015-09-01

    Demand and lead time uncertainties have significant effects on supply chain behaviour. In this paper, we present a single-product three-level multi-period supply chain with uncertain demands and lead times by using robust techniques to study the managerial insights of the supply chain inventory system under uncertainty. We formulate this problem as a robust mixed-integer linear program with minimised expected cost and total cost variation to determine the optimal (s, S) values of the inventory parameters. Several numerical studies are performed to investigate the supply chain behaviour. Useful guidelines for the design of a robust supply chain are also provided. Results show that the order variance and the expected cost in a supply chain significantly increase when the manufacturer's review period is an integer ratio of the distributor's and the retailer's review periods.

  11. Open source and healthcare in Europe - time to put leading edge ideas into practice.

    PubMed

    Murray, Peter J; Wright, Graham; Karopka, Thomas; Betts, Helen; Orel, Andrej

    2009-01-01

    Free/Libre and Open Source Software (FLOSS) is a process of software development, a method of licensing and a philosophy. Although FLOSS plays a significant role in several market areas, the impact in the health care arena is still limited. FLOSS is promoted as one of the most effective means for overcoming fragmentation in the health care sector and providing a basis for more efficient, timely and cost effective health care provision. The 2008 European Federation for Medical Informatics (EFMI) Special Topic Conference (STC) explored a range of current and future issues related to FLOSS in healthcare (FLOSS-HC). In particular, there was a focus on health records, ubiquitous computing, knowledge sharing, and current and future applications. Discussions resulted in a list of main barriers and challenges for use of FLOSS-HC. Based on the outputs of this event, the 2004 Open Steps events and subsequent workshops at OSEHC2009 and Med-e-Tel 2009, a four-step strategy has been proposed for FLOSS-HC: 1) a FLOSS-HC inventory; 2) a FLOSS-HC collaboration platform, use case database and knowledge base; 3) a worldwide FLOSS-HC network; and 4) FLOSS-HC dissemination activities. The workshop will further refine this strategy and elaborate avenues for FLOSS-HC from scientific, business and end-user perspectives. To gain acceptance by different stakeholders in the health care industry, different activities have to be conducted in collaboration. The workshop will focus on the scientific challenges in developing methodologies and criteria to support FLOSS-HC in becoming a viable alternative to commercial and proprietary software development and deployment. PMID:19745456

  12. [Bias and confounding: pharmacoepidemiological study using administrative database].

    PubMed

    Nojiri, Shuko

    2015-01-01

    The provision of health care frequently creates digitalized data such as hospital-based electronic data, medication prescription records, and claims data collectively termed "administrative database research". The data source and analytical opportunities for study create risks that can lead to misinterpretation or bias the results. This review serves as an introduction to the concept of bias and confounding to help researchers conduct methodologically sound pharmacoepidemiologic research projects using administrative databases. Beyond general considerations for observational study, there are several unique issues related to database research that should be addressed. The risks of uninterpretable or biased results can be minimized by: providing a robust description of the data tables used; focusing on why and how they were created; measuring and reporting the accuracy of diagnostic and procedural codes used; and properly accounting for any time-dependent nature of variables. The hallmark of good research is rigorously careful analysis and interpretation. The promise for value of real world evidence using databases in medical decision making must be balanced against concerns related to observational inherited limitations for bias and confounding. Researchers should aim to avoid bias in the design of a study, adjust for confounding, and discuss the effects of residual bias on the results. PMID:26028416

  13. Lead-time reduction utilizing lean tools applied to healthcare: the inpatient pharmacy at a local hospital.

    PubMed

    Al-Araidah, Omar; Momani, Amer; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Momani, Mohammed

    2010-01-01

    The healthcare arena, much like the manufacturing industry, benefits from many aspects of the Toyota lean principles. Lean thinking contributes to reducing or eliminating nonvalue-added time, money, and energy in healthcare. In this paper, we apply selected principles of lean management aiming at reducing the wasted time associated with drug dispensing at an inpatient pharmacy at a local hospital. Thorough investigation of the drug dispensing process revealed unnecessary complexities that contribute to delays in delivering medications to patients. We utilize DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) and 5S (Sort, Set-in-order, Shine, Standardize, Sustain) principles to identify and reduce wastes that contribute to increasing the lead-time in healthcare operations at the pharmacy understudy. The results obtained from the study revealed potential savings of > 45% in the drug dispensing cycle time. PMID:20151593

  14. Eliminating bias in CEM systems

    SciTech Connect

    Jahnke, J.A.

    1995-12-31

    The emission of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter from fossil-fuel fired power plants and industrial sources, is a matter of public concern that has led to both State and Federal requirements for pollution control. The accuracy of continuous emission monitoring (CEM) system data has been an issue of considerable importance in the development and implementation of the Acid Rain Program. The more stringent relative accuracy requirements of this program, coupled with the importance of emission trading allowances, has led to the need to minimize systematic errors in emissions measurement. With the inclusion of the t-test for bias in the Acid Rain Regulations of 40 CFR Part 75, a method was introduced that could be used to uncover systematic error, or bias, in CEM system measurements. Once bias is detected, it is highly desirable to either eliminate the cause of the bias or to apply correction factors to minimize its effect. However, a problem occurs in determining the cause of the bias; a task that is often both difficult and time consuming. This paper explains the rationale behind the bias test as applied to CEM systems and summarizes potential sources of systematic error in both extractive and in-situ CEM systems. The paper examines a number of factors that contribute to CEM system measurement error. Methods are suggested for both the detection and correction of the resulting biases.

  15. Real-Time 12-Lead High-Frequency QRS Electrocardiography for Enhanced Detection of Myocardial Ischemia and Coronary Artery Disease

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlegel, Todd T.; Kulecz, Walter B.; DePalma, Jude L.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Wilson, John S.; Rahman, M. Atiar; Bungo, Michael W.

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have shown that diminution of the high-frequency (HF; 150-250 Hz) components present within the central portion of the QRS complex of an electrocardiogram (ECG) is a more sensitive indicator for the presence of myocardial ischemia than are changes in the ST segments of the conventional low-frequency ECG. However, until now, no device has been capable of displaying, in real time on a beat-to-beat basis, changes in these HF QRS ECG components in a continuously monitored patient. Although several software programs have been designed to acquire the HF components over the entire QRS interval, such programs have involved laborious off-line calculations and postprocessing, limiting their clinical utility. We describe a personal computer-based ECG software program developed recently at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that acquires, analyzes, and displays HF QRS components in each of the 12 conventional ECG leads in real time. The system also updates these signals and their related derived parameters in real time on a beat-to-beat basis for any chosen monitoring period and simultaneously displays the diagnostic information from the conventional (low-frequency) 12-lead ECG. The real-time NASA HF QRS ECG software is being evaluated currently in multiple clinical settings in North America. We describe its potential usefulness in the diagnosis of myocardial ischemia and coronary artery disease.

  16. Correcting for systematic biases in GCM simulations in the frequency domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Ha; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Bias correction is considered as a critical post-processing step to remove systematic errors and improve the quality of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations before their use in climate change impact assessment applications. A majority of the bias correction approaches correct for biases either at a single time scale or at multiple pre-specified time scales. An inappropriate or insufficient selection of time scales may lead to improper or sub-optimal bias corrected outputs, especially when persistence attributes across a range of scales are of interest. In this paper, we present a new bias correction approach that works in the frequency space and is independent of specific time scales. The approach is named as frequency-based bias correction (FBC). The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the monthly rainfall simulations of MIROC5 GCM over Australia and comparing the results with two other approaches, namely, empirical quantile mapping and recursive nesting bias correction, in cross validation. The comparison is based on the reproduction of various observed distribution and persistence attributes. Cross-validation results indicate that the proposed approach shows similar performance in terms of reproducing the first- and second-order moments of observed precipitation time series, however, outperforms with regard to persistence attributes. The approach shows high potential for use in downscaling and other climate change impact assessment studies, especially for the planning and design of hydrologic systems that are sensitive to the characterisation of persistence in the hydrologic time series.

  17. Neonatal anoxia leads to time dependent progression of mitochondrial linked apoptosis in rat cortex and associated long term sensorimotor deficits.

    PubMed

    Samaiya, Puneet K; Narayan, Gopeshwar; Kumar, Ashok; Krishnamurthy, Sairam

    2016-08-01

    Neonatal anoxia arises due to oxygen deprivation at the time of birth and results in life long neurodevelopmental deficits and sometimes may lead to death. The present study investigated the time dependent cortical mitochondrial dysfunction linked apoptosis and related sensorimotor deficits in neonates. Neonates after 30h to birth (P2) were subjected to anoxia of two episodes (10min in each) at a time interval of 24h by passing 100% N2 into an enclosed chamber as confirmed by pulse oximetry. Sensorimotor activities like reflex latency and hanging latency were carried out 24h after last anoxic episode i.e. from P4 (day-1) and continued up to P10 (day-7). Mitochondrial dysfunction after anoxia was evident by the decrease in respiration states, respiratory control ratio (RCR), antioxidant enzyme activity but an increase in oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation and alteration in mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) at different time points (30min, 24h and day-7). A change in expression of Bcl-2 family proteins and opening of mitochondrial transition pore (mPTP) in terms of mitochondrial swelling was observed resulting in release of cytochrome-C which further activated intrinsic (mitochondrial) pathway of apoptosis through increased expression of caspase-9/3 as confirmed by flow cytometry. In conclusion, anoxia injury leads to progressive activation of mitochondrial events leading to increase in apoptotic cell death following secondary pathological insult. Therefore, strategies in limiting mitochondrial-linked apoptosis during the secondary insult input process may be useful in treatment of long term sensorimotor deficits following anoxia. PMID:27184438

  18. The application of EOQ and lead time crashing cost models in material with limited life time (Case study: CN-235 Aircraft at PT Dirgantara Indonesia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustina Hidayat, Yosi; Ria Kasanah, Aprilia; Yudhistira, Titah

    2016-02-01

    PT. Dirgantara Indonesia, one of State Owned Enterprises engaging in the aerospace industry, targets to control 30% of world market for light and medium sized aircraft. One type of the aircrafts produced by PT. DI every year is CN-235. Currently, the cost of material procurement reaches 50% of the total cost of production. Material has a variety of characteristics, one of which is having a lifetime. The demand characteristic of the material with expiration for the CN-235 aircraft is deterministic. PT DI does not have any scientific background for its procurement of raw material policy. In addition, there are two methods of transportation used for delivering materials, i.e. by land and air. Each method has different lead time. Inventory policies used in this research are deterministic and probabilistic. Both deterministic and probabilistic single and multi-item inventory policies have order quantity, time to order, reorder point, and lead time as decision variables. The performance indicator for this research is total inventory cost. Inventory policy using the single item EOQ and considering expiration factor inventory results in a reduction in total costs up to 69.58% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.16%. Inventory policy proposal using the model of a single item by considering expiration factor and lead time crashing cost results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.5% and multi item results in a decrease in total costs amounted to 71.62%. Subsequently, wasted expired materials, with the proposed models have been successfully decreased to 95%.

  19. The `Clear-Sky Bias' of TOVS Upper-Tropospheric Humidity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzante, John R.; Gahrs, Gregory E.

    2000-11-01

    A temporal sampling bias may be introduced due to the inability of a measurement system to produce a valid observation during certain types of situations. In this study the temporal sampling bias in satellite-derived measures of upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) was examined through the utilization of similar humidity measures derived from radiosonde data. This bias was estimated by imparting the temporal sampling characteristics of the satellite system onto the radiosonde observations. This approach was applied to UTH derived from Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder radiances from the NOAA-10 satellite from the period 1987-91 and from the `Angell' network of 63 radiosonde stations for the same time period. Radiative modeling was used to convert both the satellite and radiosonde data to commensurate measures of UTH.Examination of the satellite temporal sampling bias focused on the effects of the `clear-sky bias' due to the inability of the satellite system to produce measurements when extensive cloud cover is present. This study indicates that the effects of any such bias are relatively small in the extratropics (about several percent relative humidity) but may be 5%-10% in the most convectively active regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, there is a systematic movement and evolution of the bias pattern following the seasonal migration of convection, which reflects the fact that the bias increases as cloud cover increases. The bias is less noticeable for shorter timescales (seasonal values) but becomes more obvious as the averaging time increases (climatological values); it may be that small-scale noise partially obscures the bias for shorter time averages. Based on indirect inference it is speculated that the bias may lead to an underestimate of the magnitude of trends in satellite UTH in the Tropics, particularly in the drier regions.

  20. Accuracy of sea level predictions with lead time of one week: a comparison between Prognocean and MyOcean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swierczynska, Malgorzata; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2015-04-01

    There exist several systems which produce sea level forecasts in real time, with lead times ranging from hours to two weeks in the future. One of the recently developed solutions is Prognocean, the system that has been built and implemented at the University of Wroclaw, Poland. Its main feature is that it uses simple time series models to predict sea level anomaly maps, and does it for lead times ranging from 1 to 14 days with daily update. The empirical data-based models are fitted in real time both to individual grids (polynomial-harmonic model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with autoregressive model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with threshold autoregressive model) and to numerous grids forming a spatial latitude x longitude window of 3˚ x 5˚ (polynomial-harmonic model combined with multivariate autoregressive model). Although their simplicity, the approaches have already been shown to produce sea level anomaly predictions of reasonable accuracy. However, none of the analyses targeted at the comparative study which would present the skills of the Prognocean system against a background of the performance of other systems that use physically-based models. This study aims to fill this gap by comparing Prognocean-based predictions for one week into the future with the corresponding prognoses calculated by MyOcean. The reader is provided with the objectively-calculated set of statistics, presented as maps, which describes prediction errors (mean absolute error, root mean square error, index of agreement) and prediction skills (prediction efficiency, coefficient of determination) of the two systems. The exercise enables to compare the skills of the approaches, and the gridwise comparison allows one to identify areas of superior performance of each system.

  1. Immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons.

    PubMed

    White, Katherine; Van Boven, Leaf

    2012-08-01

    In seven studies of naturally occurring, "real-world" emotional events, people demonstrated an immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons, perceiving their own current or recent emotional reactions as more intense compared with others' emotional reactions to the same events. The events examined include crossing a scary bridge (study 1a), a national tragedy (study 1b), terrorist attacks (studies 2a and 3b), a natural disaster (study 2b), and a presidential election (study 3b). These perceived differences between one's own and others' emotions declined over time, as relatively immediate and recent emotions subsided, a pattern that people were not intuitively aware of (study 2c). This immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons emerged for both explicit comparisons (studies 1a, 1b, and 3b), and for absolute judgments of emotional intensity (studies 2a, 2b, and 3a). Finally, the immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons was reduced when people were reminded that emotional display norms might lead others' appearances to understate emotional intensity (studies 3a and 3b). Implications of these findings for social-emotional phenomena are discussed. PMID:22148998

  2. Potential for long-lead prediction of the western North Pacific monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jung; Son, Seok-Woo; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-02-01

    Although the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon circulation significantly impacts the socioeconomic communities around Asia, its prediction is only limited to a few months. By examining the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 decadal hindcast experiments, we explore a possibility of the extended prediction skill for the WNP monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales. It is found that the multimodel ensemble (MME) predictions, initialized in January, successfully predict the WNP circulation in spring and early summer. Somewhat surprisingly, a reliable prediction of the WNP circulation appears even in the following spring with a maximum lead time of 14 months. This unexpected prediction skill is likely caused by the improved El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and the exaggerated dynamical link between the ENSO and premonsoon circulation in the MME prediction. Although further studies are needed, this result may open up new opportunities for the multiseasonal prediction of the WNP monsoon circulation.

  3. Mississippi Valley-type lead-zinc deposits through geological time: Implications from recent age-dating research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leach, D.L.; Bradley, D.; Lewchuk, Michael T.; Symons, David T. A.; De Marsily, G.; Brannon, J.

    2001-01-01

    Remarkable advances in age dating Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits provide a new opportunity to understand how and where these deposits form in the Earth's crust. These dates are summarized and examined in a framework of global tectonics, paleogeography, fluid migration, and paleoclimate. Nineteen districts have been dated by paleomagnetic and/or radiometric methods. Of the districts that have both paleomagnetic and radiometric dates, only the Pine Point and East Tennessee districts have significant disagreements. This broad agreement between paleomagnetic and radiometric dates provides added confidence in the dating techniques used. The new dates confirm the direct connection between the genesis of MVT lead-zinc ores with global-scale tectonic events. The dates show that MVT deposits formed mainly during large contractional tectonic events at restricted times in the history of the Earth. Only the deposits in the Lennard Shelf of Australia and Nanisivik in Canada have dates that correspond to extensional tectonic events. The most important period for MVT genesis was the Devonian to Permian time, which corresponds to a series of intense tectonic events during the assimilation of Pangea. The second most important period for MVT genesis was Cretaceous to Tertiary time when microplate assimilation affected the western margin of North America and Africa-Eurasia. There is a notable paucity of MVT lead-zinc ore formation following the breakup of Rodinia and Pangea. Of the five MVT deposits hosted in Proterozoic rocks, only the Nanisivik deposit has been dated as Proterozoic. The contrast in abundance between SEDEX and MVT lead-zinc deposits in the Proterozoic questions the frequently suggested notion that the two types of ores share similar genetic paths. The ages of MVT deposits, when viewed with respect to the orogenic cycle in the adjacent orogen suggest that no single hydrologic model can be universally applied to the migration of the ore fluids

  4. Unlearning Implicit Social Biases During Sleep **

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W.; Creery, Jessica D.; Vargas, Iliana M.; Bodenhausen, Galen V.; Paller, Ken A.

    2015-01-01

    Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counter-stereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison to the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained one week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counter-stereotype training, and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent. PMID:26023137

  5. Chlorine doping reduces electron-hole recombination in lead iodide perovskites: time-domain ab initio analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jin; Prezhdo, Oleg V

    2015-11-19

    Rapid development in lead halide perovskites has led to solution-processable thin film solar cells with power conversion efficiencies close to 20%. Nonradiative electron-hole recombination within perovskites has been identified as the main pathway of energy losses, competing with charge transport and limiting the efficiency. Using nonadiabatic (NA) molecular dynamics, combined with time-domain density functional theory, we show that nonradiative recombination happens faster than radiative recombination and long-range charge transfer to an acceptor material. Doping of lead iodide perovskites with chlorine atoms reduces charge recombination. On the one hand, chlorines decrease the NA coupling because they contribute little to the wave functions of the valence and conduction band edges. On the other hand, chlorines shorten coherence time because they are lighter than iodines and introduce high-frequency modes. Both factors favor longer excited-state lifetimes. The simulation shows good agreement with the available experimental data and contributes to the comprehensive understanding of electronic and vibrational dynamics in perovskites. The generated insights into design of higher-efficiency solar cells range from fundamental scientific principles, such as the role of electron-vibrational coupling and quantum coherence, to practical guidelines, such as specific suggestions for chemical doping. PMID:26505613

  6. Trend Analysis of Long Lead-Time Snowpack Forecasts using Data Segregated by Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, S.; Kunkel, M. L.; Holbrook, V. P.; Timilsena, J.; Blestrud, D.; Parkinson, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water planners in the western United States are challenged with managing resources for various uses, including hydropower. In southern Idaho, water planners rely heavily on snowpack forecasts to determine future hydropower availability and estimate the need for other generation sources. The development of improved snowpack forecast models in the Snake River Basin is an ongoing challenge. Previously, we examined the ability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure to long lead-time forecasts snowpack using six-month predictor periods with mixed results. Our current analysis uses three-month predictor periods and segregates data based on the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Data from cold-phase PDO years (1950 - 1976, 1999 - present) were used with singular value decomposition to identify regions of SSTs and 500-millibar heights (500-Mb) that were teleconnected with snowpack in western Idaho. The identified regions were used in a non-parametric forecasting model to produce long lead-time snowpack forecasts. Forecasts using data segregated by cold phase PDO proved more accurate than forecasts using data that spanned warm and cold phases of the PDO. Trend analysis was performed to determine forecast accuracy relative to both a climatological forecast and the observed snowpack. While forecasting specific values of snowpack remains a challenge, strong trends emerge which are useful in predicting the relative volume of snowpack anticipated for a given region.

  7. Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead-time streamflow forecasting in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2007-12-01

    In the recent past, oceanic-atmospheric oscillations have been used successfully for long lead-time streamflow forecasting. Herein, we present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) for the long lead-time streamflow forecast incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on Statistical Learning Theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and can be used to predict a quantity forward in time based on training that uses past data. The principal strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problems. The SVMs are considered superior to the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) due to the tendency of formulating a quadratic optimization problem which ensures a global optimum that is found missing in the traditional ANN approach. The SVM model was applied to four unimpaired gages in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The streamflow data for the selected gages was used from 1906¡§C2004. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indexes comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906¡§C2001 were used to generate streamflow volumes for three years ahead. The SVM model was trained with 86 years of data (1906¡§C1991) and tested for 10 years of data (1992-2001). The testing criteria used for the model effectiveness was based on correlation coefficient r, root means square error (RMSE) and nash sutcliffe efficiency coefficient e. Predictions during the testing phase showed a good agreement with measured streamflow volumes for the selected gages in UCRB. Rigorous sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of individual oscillation. The results indicated a strong signal for NAO and ENSO indexes as compared to PDO and AMO indexes for the long lead-time streamflow forecast. The oceanic

  8. Bias in Mental Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bond, Lloyd

    1981-01-01

    While some forms of test bias (for example, bias in selection and prediction) appear amenable to definitional consensus, a definition of cultural bias will remain problematic so long as it is confused with the nature/nurture issue. (Author/BW)

  9. Demonstrating the Correspondence Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howell, Jennifer L.; Shepperd, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Among the best-known and most robust biases in person perception is the correspondence bias--the tendency for people to make dispositional, rather than situational, attributions for an actor's behavior. The correspondence bias appears in virtually every social psychology textbook and in many introductory psychology textbooks, yet the authors'…

  10. Bias in Grading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malouff, John

    2008-01-01

    Bias in grading can be conscious or unconscious. The author describes different types of bias, such as those based on student attractiveness or performance in prior courses, and a variety of methods of reducing bias, including keeping students anonymous during grading and using detailed criteria for subjective grading.

  11. Recalibrating Academic Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yancey, George

    2012-01-01

    Whether political and/or religious academic bias exists is a question with important ramifications for the educational institutions. Those arguing for the presence of such bias contend that political conservatives and the highly religious in academia are marginalized and face discrimination. The question of academic bias tends to be cast in a…

  12. Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sedlak, J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are

  13. Queries for Bias Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gordon, Diana F.

    1992-01-01

    Selecting a good bias prior to concept learning can be difficult. Therefore, dynamic bias adjustment is becoming increasingly popular. Current dynamic bias adjustment systems, however, are limited in their ability to identify erroneous assumptions about the relationship between the bias and the target concept. Without proper diagnosis, it is difficult to identify and then remedy faulty assumptions. We have developed an approach that makes these assumptions explicit, actively tests them with queries to an oracle, and adjusts the bias based on the test results.

  14. Sequential injection analysis of lead using time-based colorimetric detection and preconcentration on an anionic-exchange resin.

    PubMed

    Aracama, Nestor Zárate; Araújo, Alberto N; Perez-Olmos, Ricardo

    2004-04-01

    The development of a sequential injection analysis manifold for the colorimetric determination of lead in water samples is described The concentration of lead was assessed from its catalytic effect on the reaction of resazurine reduction caused by sulfide in an alkali medium. To that effect, the reaction zone was stopped at the detector, and the time interval required for the attainment of an absorbance decrease of 0.800 at the wavelength of 610 nm was estimated. Interference of other transition metals of the samples was minimized by adding potassium iodide to the sample and retaining the iodocomplexes formed in an on-line anionic resin (AGI X8). Elution was made with a 2 mol/L sodium hydroxide solution. The relationship [SIA] microg/L = 0.99 (+/- 0.11) x [ETAAS] microg/L + 0 (+/- 4) was obtained upon comparing the results given by the proposed system and by electrothermal atomization atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) after the analysis of ten water samples. PMID:15116968

  15. Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in ADC measurements

    PubMed Central

    Malyarenko, Dariya I.; Ross, Brian D.; Chenevert, Thomas L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially-dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10–20%) in ADC measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. Methods All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Results Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75–95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3–0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. Conclusions The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. PMID:23794533

  16. Nonmonotonic energy harvesting efficiency in biased exciton chains.

    PubMed

    Vlaming, S M; Malyshev, V A; Knoester, J

    2007-10-21

    We theoretically study the efficiency of energy harvesting in linear exciton chains with an energy bias, where the initial excitation is taking place at the high-energy end of the chain and the energy is harvested (trapped) at the other end. The efficiency is characterized by means of the average time for the exciton to be trapped after the initial excitation. The exciton transport is treated as the intraband energy relaxation over the states obtained by numerically diagonalizing the Frenkel Hamiltonian that corresponds to the biased chain. The relevant intraband scattering rates are obtained from a linear exciton-phonon interaction. Numerical solution of the Pauli master equation that describes the relaxation and trapping processes reveals a complicated interplay of factors that determine the overall harvesting efficiency. Specifically, if the trapping step is slower than or comparable to the intraband relaxation, this efficiency shows a nonmonotonic dependence on the bias: it first increases when introducing a bias, reaches a maximum at an optimal bias value, and then decreases again because of dynamic (Bloch) localization of the exciton states. Effects of on-site (diagonal) disorder, leading to Anderson localization, are addressed as well. PMID:17949203

  17. New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

    2005-05-01

    of the constituant layers. The spirit of this topical issue is, for the first time, to gather and survey recent and original developments, both experimental and theoretical, which bring new insights into the physics of exchange bias. It has been planned in relation with an international workshop exclusively devoted to exchange bias, namely IWEBMN’04 (International Workshop on Exchange Bias in Magnetic Nanostructures) that took place in Anglet, in the south west of France, from 16th to 18th September 2004. The conference gathered worldwide researchers in the area, both experimentalists and theoreticians. Several research paths are particularly active in the field of magnetic exchange coupling. The conference, as well as this topical issue, which was also open to contributions from scientists not participating in the conference, has been organized according to the following principles: 1. Epitaxial systems: Since the essential behavior of exchange bias critically depends on the atomic-level chemical and spin structure at the interface between the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic components, epitaxial AF/F systems in which the quality of the interface and the crystalline coherence are optimized and well known are ideal candidates for a better understanding of the underlying physics of exchange bias. The dependence of exchange bias on the spin configurations at the interfaces can be accomplished by selecting different crystallographic orientations. The role of interface roughness can also be understood from thin-film systems by changing the growth parameters, and correlations between the interface structure and exchange bias can be made, as reported in this issue. 2. Out-of-plane magnetized systems: While much important work has been devoted to the study of structures with in-plane magnetization, little has been done on the study of exchange bias and exchange coupling in samples with out-of-plane magnetization. Some systems can exhibit either in-plane or out

  18. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

    PubMed

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

    2016-06-21

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics. PMID:27330086

  19. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  20. TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA DISTANCE MODULUS BIAS AND DISPERSION FROM K-CORRECTION ERRORS: A DIRECT MEASUREMENT USING LIGHT CURVE FITS TO OBSERVED SPECTRAL TIME SERIES

    SciTech Connect

    Saunders, C.; Aldering, G.; Aragon, C.; Bailey, S.; Childress, M.; Fakhouri, H. K.; Kim, A. G.; Antilogus, P.; Bongard, S.; Canto, A.; Cellier-Holzem, F.; Guy, J.; Baltay, C.; Buton, C.; Chotard, N.; Copin, Y.; Gangler, E.; and others

    2015-02-10

    We estimate systematic errors due to K-corrections in standard photometric analyses of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. Errors due to K-correction occur when the spectral template model underlying the light curve fitter poorly represents the actual supernova spectral energy distribution, meaning that the distance modulus cannot be recovered accurately. In order to quantify this effect, synthetic photometry is performed on artificially redshifted spectrophotometric data from 119 low-redshift supernovae from the Nearby Supernova Factory, and the resulting light curves are fit with a conventional light curve fitter. We measure the variation in the standardized magnitude that would be fit for a given supernova if located at a range of redshifts and observed with various filter sets corresponding to current and future supernova surveys. We find significant variation in the measurements of the same supernovae placed at different redshifts regardless of filters used, which causes dispersion greater than ∼0.05 mag for measurements of photometry using the Sloan-like filters and a bias that corresponds to a 0.03 shift in w when applied to an outside data set. To test the result of a shift in supernova population or environment at higher redshifts, we repeat our calculations with the addition of a reweighting of the supernovae as a function of redshift and find that this strongly affects the results and would have repercussions for cosmology. We discuss possible methods to reduce the contribution of the K-correction bias and uncertainty.

  1. SureCure ®-A new material to reduces curing time and improve curing reproducibility of lead-acid batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boden, David P.; Loosemore, Daniel V.; Botts, G. Dean

    This paper introduces a technology that considerably reduces the time to cure the positive plates of lead-acid batteries. In each of several full-scale trials at automotive and industrial battery manufacturers, the simple replacement of 1 wt.% of leady oxide with finely-divided tetrabasic lead sulfate (SureCure™ by Hammond Group Inc.) is shown to accelerate significantly the conversion of tribasic lead sulfate (3BS) to tetrabasic lead sulfate (4BS) in the curing process while improving crystal structure and reproducibility. Shorter curing times result in reduced labour and energy costs, as well as reduced fixed (curing chambers and plant footprint) and working (plate inventory) capital investment.

  2. Real time analysis of lead-containing atmospheric particles in Beijing during springtime by single particle aerosol mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Ma, Li; Li, Mei; Huang, Zhengxu; Li, Lei; Gao, Wei; Nian, Huiqing; Zou, Lilin; Fu, Zhong; Gao, Jian; Chai, Fahe; Zhou, Zhen

    2016-07-01

    Using a single particle aerosol mass spectrometer (SPAMS), the chemical composition and size distributions of lead (Pb)-containing particles with diameter from 0.1 μm to 2.0 μm in Beijing were analyzed in the spring of 2011 during clear, hazy, and dusty days. Based on mass spectral features of particles, cluster analysis was applied to Pb-containing particles, and six major classes were acquired consisting of K-rich, carboneous, Fe-rich, dust, Pb-rich, and Cl-rich particles. Pb-containing particles accounted for 4.2-5.3%, 21.8-22.7%, and 3.2% of total particle number during clear, hazy and dusty days, respectively. K-rich particles are a major contribution to Pb-containing particles, varying from 30.8% to 82.1% of total number of Pb-containing particles, lowest during dusty days and highest during hazy days. The results reflect that the chemical composition and amount of Pb-containing particles has been affected by meteorological conditions as well as the emissions of natural and anthropogenic sources. K-rich particles and carbonaceous particles could be mainly assigned to the emissions of coal combustion. Other classes of Pb-containing particles may be associated with metallurgical processes, coal combustion, dust, and waste incineration etc. In addition, Pb-containing particles during dusty days were first time studied by SPAMS. This method could provide a powerful tool for monitoring and controlling of Pb pollution in real time. PMID:27085059

  3. Spectral dependence of direct and trap-mediated recombination processes in lead halide perovskites using time resolved microwave conductivity.

    PubMed

    Guse, Joanna A; Soufiani, Arman M; Jiang, Liangcong; Kim, Jincheol; Cheng, Yi-Bing; Schmidt, Timothy W; Ho-Baillie, Anita; McCamey, Dane R

    2016-04-28

    Elucidating the decay mechanisms of photoexcited charge carriers is key to improving the efficiency of solar cells based on organo-lead halide perovskites. Here we investigate the spectral dependence (via above-, inter- and sub-bandgap optical excitations) of direct and trap-mediated decay processes in CH3NH3PbI3 using time resolved microwave conductivity (TRMC). We find that the total end-of-pulse mobility is excitation wavelength dependent - the mobility is maximized (172 cm(2) V(-1) s(-1)) when charge carriers are excited by near bandgap light (780 nm) in the low charge carrier density regime (10(9) photons per cm(2)), and is lower for above- and sub-bandgap excitations. Direct recombination is found to occur on the 100-400 ns timescale across excitation wavelengths near and above the bandgap, whereas indirect recombination processes displayed distinct behaviour following above- and sub-bandgap excitations, suggesting the influence of different trap distributions on recombination dynamics. PMID:27067120

  4. Bias correction with Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    With this work, we aim at developping a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias. First, through a preliminary run, we estimate the bias of the model and its possible sources. Then, we establish a forcing term which is directly added inside the model's equations. We create an ensemble of runs and consider the forcing term as a control variable during the assimilation of observations. We then use this analysed forcing term to correct the bias of the model. Since the forcing is added inside the model, it acts as a source term, unlike external forcings such as wind. This procedure has been developed and successfully tested with a twin experiment on a Lorenz 95 model. Indeed, we were able to estimate and recover an artificial bias that had been added into the model. This bias had a spatial structure and was constant through time. The mean and behaviour of the corrected model corresponded to those the reference model. It is currently being applied and tested on the sea ice ocean NEMO LIM model, which is used in the PredAntar project. NEMO LIM is a global and low resolution (2 degrees) coupled model (hydrodynamic model and sea ice model) with long time steps allowing simulations over several decades. Due to its low resolution, the model is subject to bias in area where strong currents are present. We aim at correcting this bias by using perturbed current fields from higher resolution models and randomly generated perturbations. The random perturbations need to be constrained in order to respect the physical properties of the ocean, and not create unwanted phenomena. To construct those random perturbations, we first create a random field with the Diva tool (Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis). Using a cost function, this tool penalizes abrupt variations in the field, while using a custom correlation length. It also decouples disconnected areas based on topography. Then, we filter

  5. Resolving Bias in Laser Ablation Geochronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowring, James; Horstwood, Matthew; Gehrels, George

    2013-06-01

    Increasingly, scientific investigations requiring geochronology utilize laser ablation (LA)-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS), taking advantage of the efficiency and throughput possible for uranium-thorium-lead (U-Th-Pb) dating. A number of biases exist when comparing data among laboratories and an ongoing community-based effort is working to resolve and eliminate these biases to improve the accuracy of scientific interpretation based on these data.

  6. Self regulating body bias generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hass, Kenneth (Inventor)

    2004-01-01

    The back bias voltage on a functional circuit is controlled through a closed loop process. A delay element receives a clock pulse and produces a delay output. The delay element is advantageously constructed of the same materials as the functional circuit so that the aging and degradation of the delay element parallels the degradation of the functional circuit. As the delay element degrades, the transistor switching time increases, increasing the time delay of the delay output. An AND gate compares a clock pulse to an output pulse of the delay element, the AND output forming a control pulse. A duty cycle of the control pulse is determined by the delay time between the clock pulse and the delay element output. The control pulse is received at the input of a charge pump. The charge pump produces a back bias voltage which is then applied to the delay element and to the functional circuit. If the time delay produced by the delay element exceeds the optimal delay, the duty cycle of the control pulse is shortened, and the back bias voltage is lowered, thereby increasing the switching speed of the transistors in the delay element and reducing the time delay. If the throughput of the delay element is too fast, the duty cycle of the control pulse is lengthened, raising the back bias voltage produced by the charge pump. This, in turn, lowers the switching speed of the transistors in both the delay element and the functional circuit. The slower switching speed in the delay element increases time delay. In this manner, the switching speed of the delay element, and of the functional circuit, is maintained at a constant level over the life of the circuit.

  7. Effective biasing schemes for duct streaming problems.

    PubMed

    Broadhead, B L; Wagner, J C

    2005-01-01

    The effective use of biasing for the Monte Carlo solution of a void streaming problem is essential to obtaining a reasonable result in a reasonable amount of time. Most general purpose Monte Carlo shielding codes allow for the user to select the particular biasing techniques best oriented to the particular problem of interest. The biasing strategy for void streaming problems many times differs from that of a deep penetration problem. The key in void streaming is to bias particles into the streaming path, whereas in deep penetration problems the biasing is aimed at forcing particles through the shield. Until recently, the biasing scheme in the SCALE SAS4 shielding module was considered inadequate for void streaming problems due to the assumed one-dimensional nature of the automated bias prescription. A modified approach to the automated biasing in SAS4 has allowed for significant gains to be realised in the use of the code for void streaming problems. This paper applies the modified SAS4 procedures to a spent fuel storage cask model with vent ports. The results of the SAS4 analysis are compared with those of the ADVANTG methodology, which is an accelerated version of MCNP. Various options available for the implementation of the SAS4 methodology are reviewed and recommendations offered. PMID:16604687

  8. Political Bias and Nonpolitical News: A Content Analysis of an Armenian and Iranian Earthquake in the "New York Times" and the "Washington Post."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keshishian, Flora

    1997-01-01

    Examines coverage in two leading United States newspapers of earthquakes in Armenia and Iran. Finds that the newspapers' reportage was more sympathetic (both in the amount and language of coverage) toward Armenia/Soviet Union with whom the United States had friendly relations, than to the earthquake in Iran, a country on unfriendly terms with the…

  9. Biased predecision processing.

    PubMed

    Brownstein, Aaron L

    2003-07-01

    Decision makers conduct biased predecision processing when they restructure their mental representation of the decision environment to favor one alternative before making their choice. The question of whether biased predecision processing occurs has been controversial since L. Festinger (1957) maintained that it does not occur. The author reviews relevant research in sections on theories of cognitive dissonance, decision conflict, choice certainty, action control, action phases, dominance structuring, differentiation and consolidation, constructive processing, motivated reasoning, and groupthink. Some studies did not find evidence of biased predecision processing, but many did. In the Discussion section, the moderators are summarized and used to assess the theories. PMID:12848220

  10. Investigating the mechanisms of seasonal ENSO phase locking bias in the ACCESS coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Harun A.; Hirst, Anthony C.

    2016-02-01

    The mechanisms of coupled model bias in seasonal ENSO phase locking are investigated using versions 1.0 and 1.3 of the CSIRO-BOM ACCESS coupled model (hereafter, ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3, respectively). The two ACCESS coupled models are mostly similar in construction except for some differences, the most notable of which are in the cloud and land surface schemes used in the models. ACCESS1.0 simulates a realistic seasonal phase locking, with the ENSO variability peaking in December as in observations. On the other hand, the simulated ENSO variability in ACCESS1.3 peaks in March, a bias shown to be shared by many other CMIP5 models. To explore the mechanisms of this model bias, we contrast the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks associated with ENSO in both ACCESS model simulations and also compare the key feedbacks with those in other CMIP5 models. We find evidence that the ENSO phase locking bias in ACCESS1.3 is primarily caused by incorrect simulations of the shortwave feedback and the thermocline feedback in this model. The bias in the shortwave feedback is brought about by unrealistic SST-cloud interactions leading to a positive cloud feedback bias that is largest around March, in contrast to the strongest negative cloud feedback found in ACCESS1.0 simulations and observations at that time. The positive cloud feedback bias in ACCESS1.3 is the result of a dominant role played by the low-level clouds in its modeled SST-cloud interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. Two factors appear to contribute to the dominance of low-level clouds in ACCESS1.3: the occurrence of a stronger mean descending motion bias and, to a lesser extent, a larger mean SST cold bias during March-April in ACCESS1.3 than in ACCESS1.0. A similar association is found between the positive cloud feedback bias and the biases in spring-time mean descending motion and SST for a group of CMIP5 models that show a seasonal phase locking bias similar to ACCESS1.3. Significant differences are also found

  11. Adaptive Variable Bias Magnetic Bearing Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Dexter; Brown, Gerald V.; Inman, Daniel J.

    1998-01-01

    Most magnetic bearing control schemes use a bias current with a superimposed control current to linearize the relationship between the control current and the force it delivers. With the existence of the bias current, even in no load conditions, there is always some power consumption. In aerospace applications, power consumption becomes an important concern. In response to this concern, an alternative magnetic bearing control method, called Adaptive Variable Bias Control (AVBC), has been developed and its performance examined. The AVBC operates primarily as a proportional-derivative controller with a relatively slow, bias current dependent, time-varying gain. The AVBC is shown to reduce electrical power loss, be nominally stable, and provide control performance similar to conventional bias control. Analytical, computer simulation, and experimental results are presented in this paper.

  12. Radial bias is not necessary for orientation decoding.

    PubMed

    Pratte, Michael S; Sy, Jocelyn L; Swisher, Jascha D; Tong, Frank

    2016-02-15

    Multivariate pattern analysis can be used to decode the orientation of a viewed grating from fMRI signals in early visual areas. Although some studies have reported identifying multiple sources of the orientation information that make decoding possible, a recent study argued that orientation decoding is only possible because of a single source: a coarse-scale retinotopically organized preference for radial orientations. Here we aim to resolve these discrepant findings. We show that there were subtle, but critical, experimental design choices that led to the erroneous conclusion that a radial bias is the only source of orientation information in fMRI signals. In particular, we show that the reliance on a fast temporal-encoding paradigm for spatial mapping can be problematic, as effects of space and time become conflated and lead to distorted estimates of a voxel's orientation or retinotopic preference. When we implement minor changes to the temporal paradigm or to the visual stimulus itself, by slowing the periodic rotation of the stimulus or by smoothing its contrast-energy profile, we find significant evidence of orientation information that does not originate from radial bias. In an additional block-paradigm experiment where space and time were not conflated, we apply a formal model comparison approach and find that many voxels exhibit more complex tuning properties than predicted by radial bias alone or in combination with other known coarse-scale biases. Our findings support the conclusion that radial bias is not necessary for orientation decoding. In addition, our study highlights potential limitations of using temporal phase-encoded fMRI designs for characterizing voxel tuning properties. PMID:26666900

  13. Elimination of the gate and drain bias stresses in I-V characteristics of WSe2 FETs by using dual channel pulse measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Jun-Mo; Cho, In-Tak; Kang, Won-Mook; Park, Byung-Gook; Lee, Jong-Ho

    2016-08-01

    Intrinsic transfer and output characteristics of WSe2 field effect transistors are obtained by adopting the dual channel pulsed I-V measurement. Due to the DC gate bias stress during the measurement, a large hysteresis is observed and increased with increasing the sweeping range of the gate bias in the transfer curves. In addition, as a drain bias increases, the drain bias stress during the measurement induces the threshold voltage shift. The output curves measured by a DC method are significantly affected by the drain bias sweeping direction and the previous measurement, which leads to a large error in the analysis. By using the dual channel pulsed I-V measurement with a short turn-on time (10-4 s), a long turn-off time (1 s), and a base voltage (gate and drain bias during turn-off time) of 0 V, hysteretic behaviors caused by the gate bias stress and threshold voltage shift due to the drain bias stress in transfer curves are eliminated. The effect of the drain bias sweeping direction and the previous measurement in output curves are also eliminated, and the output curves show a typical field effect behavior. The intrinsic characteristics of WSe2 field effect transistors show negligible hysteresis and remarkably enhanced mobility (˜200 cm2/V s), and higher current drive capability compared to those of DC measurements.

  14. Harassment, Bias, and Discrimination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welliver, Paul W.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses a new principle which has been added to the AECT (Association for Educational Communications and Technology) Code of Professional Ethics regarding discrimination, harassment, and bias. An example is presented which illustrates a violation of a professional colleague's rights. (LRW)

  15. Estimating Bias Error Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Tian-Shu; Finley, Tom D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper formulates the general methodology for estimating the bias error distribution of a device in a measuring domain from less accurate measurements when a minimal number of standard values (typically two values) are available. A new perspective is that the bias error distribution can be found as a solution of an intrinsic functional equation in a domain. Based on this theory, the scaling- and translation-based methods for determining the bias error distribution arc developed. These methods are virtually applicable to any device as long as the bias error distribution of the device can be sufficiently described by a power series (a polynomial) or a Fourier series in a domain. These methods have been validated through computational simulations and laboratory calibration experiments for a number of different devices.

  16. Political bias is tenacious.

    PubMed

    Ditto, Peter H; Wojcik, Sean P; Chen, Eric Evan; Grady, Rebecca Hofstein; Ringel, Megan M

    2015-01-01

    Duarte et al. are right to worry about political bias in social psychology but they underestimate the ease of correcting it. Both liberals and conservatives show partisan bias that often worsens with cognitive sophistication. More non-liberals in social psychology is unlikely to speed our convergence upon the truth, although it may broaden the questions we ask and the data we collect. PMID:26786070

  17. Gravity and large-scale nonlocal bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Kwan Chuen; Scoccimarro, Román; Sheth, Ravi K.

    2012-04-01

    For Gaussian primordial fluctuations the relationship between galaxy and matter overdensities, bias, is most often assumed to be local at the time of observation in the large-scale limit. This hypothesis is however unstable under time evolution, we provide proofs under several (increasingly more realistic) sets of assumptions. In the simplest toy model galaxies are created locally and linearly biased at a single formation time, and subsequently move with the dark matter (no velocity bias) conserving their comoving number density (no merging). We show that, after this formation time, the bias becomes unavoidably nonlocal and nonlinear at large scales. We identify the nonlocal gravitationally induced fields in which the galaxy overdensity can be expanded, showing that they can be constructed out of the invariants of the deformation tensor (Galileons), the main signature of which is a quadrupole field in second-order perturbation theory. In addition, we show that this result persists if we include an arbitrary evolution of the comoving number density of tracers. We then include velocity bias, and show that new contributions appear; these are related to the breaking of Galilean invariance of the bias relation, a dipole field being the signature at second order. We test these predictions by studying the dependence of halo overdensities in cells of fixed dark matter density: measurements in simulations show that departures from the mean bias relation are strongly correlated with the nonlocal gravitationally induced fields identified by our formalism, suggesting that the halo distribution at the present time is indeed more closely related to the mass distribution at an earlier rather than present time. However, the nonlocality seen in the simulations is not fully captured by assuming local bias in Lagrangian space. The effects on nonlocal bias seen in the simulations are most important for the most biased halos, as expected from our predictions. Accounting for these

  18. Eye Movements while Reading Biased Homographs: Effects of Prior Encounter and Biasing Context on Reducing the Subordinate Bias Effect

    PubMed Central

    Leinenger, Mallorie; Rayner, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Readers experience processing difficulties when reading biased homographs preceded by subordinate-biasing contexts. Attempts to overcome this processing deficit have often failed to reduce the subordinate bias effect (SBE). In the present studies, we examined the processing of biased homographs preceded by single-sentence, subordinate-biasing contexts, and varied whether this preceding context contained a prior instance of the homograph or a control word/phrase. Having previously encountered the homograph earlier in the sentence reduced the SBE for the subsequent encounter, while simply instantiating the subordinate meaning produced processing difficulty. We compared these reductions in reading times to differences in processing time between dominant-biased repeated and non-repeated conditions in order to verify that the reductions observed in the subordinate cases did not simply reflect a general repetition benefit. Our results indicate that a strong, subordinate-biasing context can interact during lexical access to overcome the activation from meaning frequency and reduce the SBE during reading. PMID:24073328

  19. Geochronological and lead-isotope evidences for rapid crust formation in middle-proterozoic time: The Labrador example

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaerer, Urs

    1988-01-01

    Extensive U-Pb geochronological studies in the Grenville and Makkovik provinces have shown that eastern Labrador is underlain by two distinct crustal blocks. In order to substantiate the juvenile character of the middle-Proterozoic crustal block, the isotopic compositon of lead in leached k-feldspars from the same rocks were analyzed. The results of the analysis are briefly discussed.

  20. Over-fitting Time Series Models of Air Pollution Health Effects: Smoothing Tends to Bias Non-Null Associations Towards the Null.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: Simulation studies have previously demonstrated that time-series analyses using smoothing splines correctly model null health-air pollution associations. Methods: We repeatedly simulated season, meteorology and air quality for the metropolitan area of Atlanta from cyc...

  1. Ocean-atmosphere processes driving Indian summer monsoon biases in CFSv2 hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Murtugudde, Raghu; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the role of the Indian Ocean (IO) and the atmosphere biases in generating and sustaining large-scale precipitation biases over Central India (CI) during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts that are produced by initializing the system each month from January 1982 to March 2011. The CFSv2 hindcasts are characterized by a systematic dry monsoon bias over CI that deteriorate with forecast lead-times and coexist with a wet bias in the tropical IO suggesting a large-scale interplay between coupled ocean-atmosphere and land biases. The biases evolving from spring-initialized forecasts are analyzed in detail to understand the evolution of summer biases. The northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that typically crosses the equator in the IO sector during April in nature is delayed in the hindcasts when the forecast system is initialized in early spring. Our analyses show that the delay in the ITCZ coexists with wind and SST biases and the associated processes project onto the seasonal evolution of the coupled ocean-atmosphere features. This delay in conjunction with the SST and the wind biases during late spring and early summer contributes to excessive precipitation over the ocean and leading to a deficit in rainfall over CI throughout the summer. Attribution of bias to a specific component in a coupled forecast system is particularly challenging as seemingly independent biases from one component affect the other components or are affected by their feedbacks. In the spring-initialized forecasts, the buildup of deeper thermocline in association with warmer SSTs due to the enhanced Ekman pumping in the southwest IO inhibits the otherwise typical northward propagation of ITCZ in the month of April. Beyond this deficiency in the forecasts, two key ocean-atmosphere coupled mechanisms are identified; one in the Arabian Sea, where a positive windstress curl bias in conjunction

  2. Inequities in the freedom to lead a flourishing and healthy life: time for a progressive social protections framework

    PubMed Central

    Carey, Gemma

    2014-01-01

    Evidence now shows that the key drivers of poor health are social factors, such as education, employment, housing and urban environments. Variations in these social factors—or the conditions in which we live our lives—have lead to a growth in health inequalities within and between countries. One of the key challenges facing those concerned with health equity is how to effect change across the broad policy areas that impact these social PMID:25279385

  3. Dysregulated ADAM10-Mediated Processing of APP during a Critical Time Window Leads to Synaptic Deficits in Fragile X Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Pasciuto, Emanuela; Ahmed, Tariq; Wahle, Tina; Gardoni, Fabrizio; D'Andrea, Laura; Pacini, Laura; Jacquemont, Sébastien; Tassone, Flora; Balschun, Detlef; Dotti, Carlos G; Callaerts-Vegh, Zsuzsanna; D'Hooge, Rudi; Müller, Ulrike C; Di Luca, Monica; De Strooper, Bart; Bagni, Claudia

    2015-07-15

    The Fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP) regulates neuronal RNA metabolism, and its absence or mutations leads to the Fragile X syndrome (FXS). The β-amyloid precursor protein (APP) is involved in Alzheimer's disease, plays a role in synapse formation, and is upregulated in intellectual disabilities. Here, we show that during mouse synaptogenesis and in human FXS fibroblasts, a dual dysregulation of APP and the α-secretase ADAM10 leads to the production of an excess of soluble APPα (sAPPα). In FXS, sAPPα signals through the metabotropic receptor that, activating the MAP kinase pathway, leads to synaptic and behavioral deficits. Modulation of ADAM10 activity in FXS reduces sAPPα levels, restoring translational control, synaptic morphology, and behavioral plasticity. Thus, proper control of ADAM10-mediated APP processing during a specific developmental postnatal stage is crucial for healthy spine formation and function(s). Downregulation of ADAM10 activity at synapses may be an effective strategy for ameliorating FXS phenotypes. PMID:26182420

  4. Where Will LEAD Lead?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wildman, Louis

    After setting forth eight assumptions concerning the education of educational administrators, findings about the Leadership in Educational Administration Development (LEAD) program are discussed. The analysis is based on the first-year applications, telephone conversations with staff at a majority of the project sites, and additional material…

  5. Prediction Bias and Selection Bias: An Empirical Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cahan, Sorel; Gamliel, Eyal

    2001-01-01

    Proposed a definition of selection bias and studied the empirical relation between prediction bias and selection bias with respect to prominent social groups. Results show that, although the two biases are related, the relation is not isomorphic. It is mediated by the selection ratio, and for most selection ratios, it is only moderate. (SLD)

  6. Stimulus-Driven Attention, Threat Bias, and Sad Bias in Youth with a History of an Anxiety Disorder or Depression.

    PubMed

    Sylvester, Chad M; Hudziak, James J; Gaffrey, Michael S; Barch, Deanna M; Luby, Joan L

    2016-02-01

    Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n = 40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n = 33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression. PMID:25702927

  7. Diagnostics of Forward Biased Silicon Solar Cells Using Noise Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macku, R.; Koktavy, P.; Skarvada, P.; Raska, M.; Sadovsky, P.

    2009-04-01

    Our research is above all focused on non-destructive testing of the solar cells. We study a single-crystal silicon solar cells n+p and we don't have serious information about features of a pn junction and impurities distribution. The main point of our study is characterization of the local defects in samples. These defects lead to live-time reduction and degradation of reliability. Flicker noise in forward biased solar cells is subject of this paper. We will discuss our measurement with Kleinpenning approaches for inhomogeneous semiconductors and we suggest the physical nature of the samples behaviour.

  8. How does the 6-hour lead time flood forecast issued by the M5 model tree for the Krka River really look like?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stravs, L.; Brilly, M.

    2009-04-01

    The Krka River is one the main tributaries of the Sava River with a drainage area of approximately 2250 km2. Population areas in the Krka River basin are highly endangered by the possibility of extreme flooding, so knowledge about the river flow's behaviour at the time of extreme events like floods is of the highest importance. By using the M5 machine learning method for generation of regression and model tree models 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-hour lead time forecasting models (models which include and forecasting models which don't include up to 6 hours ahead precipitation forecasts) were developed for Podbocje gauging station which is located near the Krka River basin outlet. The data used in the process of model development was hourly flow data for the Podbocje gauging station and hourly rainfall data for two weather stations in the Krka River basin. The data included the period from 1999 to 2004. In the field of hydroinformatics the results of the hydrological modelling with the machine learning methods are usually presented separately (individually) for the models with different forecasting lead times (i.e. separately for 1-hour lead time forecasting model, separately for 3-hour lead time forecasting model, etc.), which is usually pretty inconvenient for the end users of the flood forecasting models. So the aim of our research was to evaluate flood forecasts in the form of 6-hour ahead flood forecast curves produced by the combined application of the 6 model tree models with 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-hour lead times at the same time. Analysis included both visual and numerical evaluation of the results obtained by the application of the forecasting models with and without the inclusion of the precipitation forecasts in the models' structure.

  9. LEADING WITH LEADING INDICATORS

    SciTech Connect

    PREVETTE, S.S.

    2005-01-27

    This paper documents Fluor Hanford's use of Leading Indicators, management leadership, and statistical methodology in order to improve safe performance of work. By applying these methods, Fluor Hanford achieved a significant reduction in injury rates in 2003 and 2004, and the improvement continues today. The integration of data, leadership, and teamwork pays off with improved safety performance and credibility with the customer. The use of Statistical Process Control, Pareto Charts, and Systems Thinking and their effect on management decisions and employee involvement are discussed. Included are practical examples of choosing leading indicators. A statistically based color coded dashboard presentation system methodology is provided. These tools, management theories and methods, coupled with involved leadership and employee efforts, directly led to significant improvements in worker safety and health, and environmental protection and restoration at one of the nation's largest nuclear cleanup sites.

  10. Multiple Factors Drive Replicating Strand Composition Bias in Bacterial Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Hai-Long; Xia, Zhong-Kui; Zhang, Fa-Zhan; Ye, Yuan-Nong; Guo, Feng-Biao

    2015-01-01

    Composition bias from Chargaff’s second parity rule (PR2) has long been found in sequenced genomes, and is believed to relate strongly with the replication process in microbial genomes. However, some disagreement on the underlying reason for strand composition bias remains. We performed an integrative analysis of various genomic features that might influence composition bias using a large-scale dataset of 1111 genomes. Our results indicate (1) the bias was stronger in obligate intracellular bacteria than in other free-living species (p-value = 0.0305); (2) Fusobacteria and Firmicutes had the highest average bias among the 24 microbial phyla analyzed; (3) the strength of selected codon usage bias and generation times were not observably related to strand composition bias (p-value = 0.3247); (4) significant negative relationships were found between GC content, genome size, rearrangement frequency, Clusters of Orthologous Groups (COG) functional subcategories A, C, I, Q, and composition bias (p-values < 1.0 × 10−8); (5) gene density and COG functional subcategories D, F, J, L, and V were positively related with composition bias (p-value < 2.2 × 10−16); and (6) gene density made the most important contribution to composition bias, indicating transcriptional bias was associated strongly with strand composition bias. Therefore, strand composition bias was found to be influenced by multiple factors with varying weights. PMID:26404268

  11. Detecting Gender Bias through Test Item Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzalez-Espada, Wilson J.

    2009-01-01

    Many physical science and physics instructors might not be trained in pedagogically appropriate test construction methods. This could lead to test items that do not measure what they are intended to measure. A subgroup of these items might show bias against some groups of students. This paper describes how the author became aware of potentially…

  12. Bias in Psychological Assessment: Heterosexism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chernin, Jeffrey; Holden, Janice Miner; Chandler, Cynthia

    1997-01-01

    Explores heterosexist bias in seven widely used assessment instruments. Focuses on bias that is observable in the instruments themselves and in the ancillary materials. Describes three types of bias, how these biases manifest in various instruments, and makes recommendations for mental health practitioners and for professionals who develop…

  13. Optimization of Angular-Momentum Biases of Reaction Wheels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Clifford; Lee, Allan

    2008-01-01

    RBOT [RWA Bias Optimization Tool (wherein RWA signifies Reaction Wheel Assembly )] is a computer program designed for computing angular momentum biases for reaction wheels used for providing spacecraft pointing in various directions as required for scientific observations. RBOT is currently deployed to support the Cassini mission to prevent operation of reaction wheels at unsafely high speeds while minimizing time in undesirable low-speed range, where elasto-hydrodynamic lubrication films in bearings become ineffective, leading to premature bearing failure. The problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in which maximum wheel speed limit is a hard constraint and a cost functional that increases as speed decreases below a low-speed threshold. The optimization problem is solved using a parametric search routine known as the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. To increase computational efficiency for extended operation involving large quantity of data, the algorithm is designed to (1) use large time increments during intervals when spacecraft attitudes or rates of rotation are nearly stationary, (2) use sinusoidal-approximation sampling to model repeated long periods of Earth-point rolling maneuvers to reduce computational loads, and (3) utilize an efficient equation to obtain wheel-rate profiles as functions of initial wheel biases based on conservation of angular momentum (in an inertial frame) using pre-computed terms.

  14. A rich fossil record yields calibrated phylogeny for Acanthaceae (Lamiales) and evidence for marked biases in timing and directionality of intercontinental disjunctions.

    PubMed

    Tripp, Erin A; McDade, Lucinda A

    2014-09-01

    More than a decade of phylogenetic research has yielded a well-sampled, strongly supported hypothesis of relationships within the large ( > 4000 species) plant family Acanthaceae. This hypothesis points to intriguing biogeographic patterns and asymmetries in sister clade diversity but, absent a time-calibrated estimate for this evolutionary history, these patterns have remained unexplored. Here, we reconstruct divergence times within Acanthaceae using fossils as calibration points and experimenting with both fossil selection and effects of invoking a maximum age prior related to the origin of Eudicots. Contrary to earlier reports of a paucity of fossils of Lamiales (an order of ∼ 23,000 species that includes Acanthaceae) and to the expectation that a largely herbaceous to soft-wooded and tropical lineage would have few fossils, we recovered 51 reports of fossil Acanthaceae. Rigorous evaluation of these for accurate identification, quality of age assessment and utility in dating yielded eight fossils judged to merit inclusion in analyses. With nearly 10 kb of DNA sequence data, we used two sets of fossils as constraints to reconstruct divergence times. We demonstrate differences in age estimates depending on fossil selection and that enforcement of maximum age priors substantially alters estimated clade ages, especially in analyses that utilize a smaller rather than larger set of fossils. Our results suggest that long-distance dispersal events explain present-day distributions better than do Gondwanan or northern land bridge hypotheses. This biogeographical conclusion is for the most part robust to alternative calibration schemes. Our data support a minimum of 13 Old World (OW) to New World (NW) dispersal events but, intriguingly, only one in the reverse direction. Eleven of these 13 were among Acanthaceae s.s., which comprises > 90% of species diversity in the family. Remarkably, if minimum age estimates approximate true history, these 11 events occurred within

  15. Statistical framework for estimating GNSS bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vierinen, Juha; Coster, Anthea J.; Rideout, William C.; Erickson, Philip J.; Norberg, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    We present a statistical framework for estimating global navigation satellite system (GNSS) non-ionospheric differential time delay bias. The biases are estimated by examining differences of measured line-integrated electron densities (total electron content: TEC) that are scaled to equivalent vertical integrated densities. The spatiotemporal variability, instrumentation-dependent errors, and errors due to inaccurate ionospheric altitude profile assumptions are modeled as structure functions. These structure functions determine how the TEC differences are weighted in the linear least-squares minimization procedure, which is used to produce the bias estimates. A method for automatic detection and removal of outlier measurements that do not fit into a model of receiver bias is also described. The same statistical framework can be used for a single receiver station, but it also scales to a large global network of receivers. In addition to the Global Positioning System (GPS), the method is also applicable to other dual-frequency GNSS systems, such as GLONASS (Globalnaya Navigazionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema). The use of the framework is demonstrated in practice through several examples. A specific implementation of the methods presented here is used to compute GPS receiver biases for measurements in the MIT Haystack Madrigal distributed database system. Results of the new algorithm are compared with the current MIT Haystack Observatory MAPGPS (MIT Automated Processing of GPS) bias determination algorithm. The new method is found to produce estimates of receiver bias that have reduced day-to-day variability and more consistent coincident vertical TEC values.

  16. Statistical framework for estimating GNSS bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vierinen, J.; Coster, A. J.; Rideout, W. C.; Erickson, P. J.; Norberg, J.

    2015-09-01

    We present a statistical framework for estimating global navigation satellite system (GNSS) non-ionospheric differential time delay bias. The biases are estimated by examining differences of measured line integrated electron densities (TEC) that are scaled to equivalent vertical integrated densities. The spatio-temporal variability, instrumentation dependent errors, and errors due to inaccurate ionospheric altitude profile assumptions are modeled as structure functions. These structure functions determine how the TEC differences are weighted in the linear least-squares minimization procedure, which is used to produce the bias estimates. A method for automatic detection and removal of outlier measurements that do not fit into a model of receiver bias is also described. The same statistical framework can be used for a single receiver station, but it also scales to a large global network of receivers. In addition to the Global Positioning System (GPS), the method is also applicable to other dual frequency GNSS systems, such as GLONASS (Globalnaya Navigazionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema). The use of the framework is demonstrated in practice through several examples. A specific implementation of the methods presented here are used to compute GPS receiver biases for measurements in the MIT Haystack Madrigal distributed database system. Results of the new algorithm are compared with the current MIT Haystack Observatory MAPGPS bias determination algorithm. The new method is found to produce estimates of receiver bias that have reduced day-to-day variability and more consistent coincident vertical TEC values.

  17. Girl child and gender bias.

    PubMed

    Chowdhry, D P

    1995-01-01

    This article identifies gender bias against female children and youth in India. Gender bias is based on centuries-old religious beliefs and sayings from ancient times. Discrimination is reflected in denial or ignorance of female children's educational, health, nutrition, and recreational needs. Female infanticide and selective abortion of female fetuses are other forms of discrimination. The task of eliminating or reducing gender bias will involve legal, developmental, political, and administrative measures. Public awareness needs to be created. There is a need to reorient the education and health systems and to advocate for gender equality. The government of India set the following goals for the 1990s: to protect the survival of the girl child and practice safe motherhood; to develop the girl child in general; and to protect vulnerable girl children in different circumstances and in special groups. The Health Authorities should monitor the laws carefully to assure marriage after the minimum age, ban sex determination of the fetus, and monitor the health and nutrition of pre-school girls and nursing and pregnant mothers. Mothers need to be encouraged to breast feed, and to breast feed equally between genders. Every village and slum area needs a mini health center. Maternal mortality must decline. Primary health centers and hospitals need more women's wards. Education must be universally accessible. Enrollments should be increased by educating rural tribal and slum parents, reducing distances between home and school, making curriculum more relevant to girls, creating more female teachers, and providing facilities and incentives for meeting the needs of girl students. Supplementary income could be provided to families for sending girls to school. Recreational activities must be free of gender bias. Dowry, sati, and devdasi systems should be banned. PMID:12158019

  18. Effect of a real-time tele-transmission system of 12-lead electrocardiogram on the first-aid for athletes with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Huan; Song, Donghan; An, Lina

    2016-05-01

    To study the effect of a real-time tele-transmission system of 12-lead electrocardiogram on door-to-balloon time in athletes with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. A total of 60 athletes with chest pain diagnosed as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) from our hospital were randomly divided into group A (n=35) and group B (n=25), the patients in group A transmitted the real-time tele-transmission system of 12-lead electrocardiogram to the chest pain center before arriving in hospital, however, the patients in group B not. The median door-to-balloon time was significant shorter in-group A than group B (38min vs 94 min, p<0.01) and the ratio of door-to-balloon time below 90 min was remarkable higher in-group A (94.2% vs 60%, p<0.01). The rate of catheter laboratory occupied was 5.7% in-group A and 40% in group B respectively (p=0.001). There was no statistically difference in mortality between the two groups (5.7% vs 4%, p>0.05). The median length of stay was significant reduced in-group A (5 days vs 7 days, p<0.01). Real-time tele-transmission system of 12 lead electrocardiogram is beneficial to the pre-hospital diagnosis of STEMI. PMID:27383498

  19. Separating response-execution bias from decision bias: arguments for an additional parameter in Ratcliff's diffusion model.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Voss, Jochen; Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2010-11-01

    Diffusion model data analysis permits the disentangling of different processes underlying the effects of experimental manipulations. Estimates can be provided for the speed of information accumulation, for the amount of information used to draw conclusions, and for a decision bias. One parameter describes the duration of non-decisional processes including the duration of motor-response execution. In the default diffusion model, it is implicitly assumed that both responses are executed with the same speed. In some applications of the diffusion model, this assumption will be violated. This will lead to biased parameter estimates. Consequently, we suggest accounting explicitly for differences in the speed of response execution for both responses. Results from a simulation study illustrate that parameter estimates from the default model are biased if the speed of response execution differs between responses. A second simulation study shows that large trial numbers (N>1,000) are needed to detect whether differences in response-execution times are based on different execution times. PMID:20030967

  20. Are Providers More Likely to Contribute to Healthcare Disparities Under High Levels of Cognitive Load? How Features of the Healthcare Setting May Lead to Biases in Medical Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, Diana J.

    2014-01-01

    Systematic reviews of healthcare disparities suggest that clinicians’ diagnostic and therapeutic decision making varies by clinically irrelevant characteristics, such as patient race, and that this variation may contribute to healthcare disparities. However, there is little understanding of the particular features of the healthcare setting under which clinicians are most likely to be inappropriately influenced by these characteristics. This study delineates several hypotheses to stimulate future research in this area. It is posited that healthcare settings in which providers experience high levels of cognitive load will increase the likelihood of racial disparities via 2 pathways. First, providers who experience higher levels of cognitive load are hypothesized to make poorer medical decisions and provide poorer care for all patients, due to lower levels of controlled processing (H1). Second, under greater levels of cognitive load, it is hypothesized that healthcare providers’ medical decisions and interpersonal behaviors will be more likely to be influenced by racial stereotypes, leading to poorer processes and outcomes of care for racial minority patients (H2). It is further hypothesized that certain characteristics of healthcare settings will result in higher levels of cognitive load experienced by providers (H3). Finally, it is hypothesized that minority patients will be disproportionately likely to be treated in healthcare settings in which providers experience greater levels of cognitive load (H4a), which will result in racial disparities due to lower levels of controlled processing by providers (H4b) and the influence of racial stereotypes (H4c).The study concludes with implications for research and practice that flow from this framework. PMID:19726783

  1. Biased to Learn Language

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sebastian-Galles, Nuria

    2007-01-01

    Some recent publications that explore the foundations of early language development are reviewed in this article. The review adopts the pivotal idea that infants' advancements are helped by the existence of different types of biases. The infant's discovery of the phonological properties of the language of the environment, as well as their learning…

  2. Optically biased laser gyro

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, D.Z.; Chow, W.W.; Scully, M.O.; Sanders, V.E.

    1980-10-01

    We describe a four-mode ring laser that exhibits none of the mode-locking characteristics that plague laser gyros. This laser is characterized by a bias that changes sign with a change in the direction of rotation and prevents the counterpropagating modes from locking. A theoretical analysis explaining the experimental results is outlined.

  3. The Role of Biased Scanning in Counterattitudinal Advocacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, John D.; Collins, Barry E.

    1977-01-01

    Experiments tested biased-scanning hypothesis that high financial inducement leads to greater cognitive contact with counterattitudinal arguments and thus to greater attitude change. No differences in biased scanning or attitude change were observed as a function of financial inducement. Results were interpreted in framework of reactance and…

  4. Greedy scheduling of cellular self-replication leads to optimal doubling times with a log-Frechet distribution.

    PubMed

    Pugatch, Rami

    2015-02-24

    Bacterial self-replication is a complex process composed of many de novo synthesis steps catalyzed by a myriad of molecular processing units, e.g., the transcription-translation machinery, metabolic enzymes, and the replisome. Successful completion of all production tasks requires a schedule-a temporal assignment of each of the production tasks to its respective processing units that respects ordering and resource constraints. Most intracellular growth processes are well characterized. However, the manner in which they are coordinated under the control of a scheduling policy is not well understood. When fast replication is favored, a schedule that minimizes the completion time is desirable. However, if resources are scarce, it is typically computationally hard to find such a schedule, in the worst case. Here, we show that optimal scheduling naturally emerges in cellular self-replication. Optimal doubling time is obtained by maintaining a sufficiently large inventory of intermediate metabolites and processing units required for self-replication and additionally requiring that these processing units be "greedy," i.e., not idle if they can perform a production task. We calculate the distribution of doubling times of such optimally scheduled self-replicating factories, and find it has a universal form-log-Frechet, not sensitive to many microscopic details. Analyzing two recent datasets of Escherichia coli growing in a stationary medium, we find excellent agreement between the observed doubling-time distribution and the predicted universal distribution, suggesting E. coli is optimally scheduling its replication. Greedy scheduling appears as a simple generic route to optimal scheduling when speed is the optimization criterion. Other criteria such as efficiency require more elaborate scheduling policies and tighter regulation. PMID:25675498

  5. Greedy scheduling of cellular self-replication leads to optimal doubling times with a log-Frechet distribution

    PubMed Central

    Pugatch, Rami

    2015-01-01

    Bacterial self-replication is a complex process composed of many de novo synthesis steps catalyzed by a myriad of molecular processing units, e.g., the transcription–translation machinery, metabolic enzymes, and the replisome. Successful completion of all production tasks requires a schedule—a temporal assignment of each of the production tasks to its respective processing units that respects ordering and resource constraints. Most intracellular growth processes are well characterized. However, the manner in which they are coordinated under the control of a scheduling policy is not well understood. When fast replication is favored, a schedule that minimizes the completion time is desirable. However, if resources are scarce, it is typically computationally hard to find such a schedule, in the worst case. Here, we show that optimal scheduling naturally emerges in cellular self-replication. Optimal doubling time is obtained by maintaining a sufficiently large inventory of intermediate metabolites and processing units required for self-replication and additionally requiring that these processing units be “greedy,” i.e., not idle if they can perform a production task. We calculate the distribution of doubling times of such optimally scheduled self-replicating factories, and find it has a universal form—log-Frechet, not sensitive to many microscopic details. Analyzing two recent datasets of Escherichia coli growing in a stationary medium, we find excellent agreement between the observed doubling-time distribution and the predicted universal distribution, suggesting E. coli is optimally scheduling its replication. Greedy scheduling appears as a simple generic route to optimal scheduling when speed is the optimization criterion. Other criteria such as efficiency require more elaborate scheduling policies and tighter regulation. PMID:25675498

  6. Delayed self-regulation and time-dependent chemical drive leads to novel states in epigenetic landscapes.

    PubMed

    Mitra, Mithun K; Taylor, Paul R; Hutchison, Chris J; McLeish, T C B; Chakrabarti, Buddhapriya

    2014-11-01

    The epigenetic pathway of a cell as it differentiates from a stem cell state to a mature lineage-committed one has been historically understood in terms of Waddington's landscape, consisting of hills and valleys. The smooth top and valley-strewn bottom of the hill represent their undifferentiated and differentiated states, respectively. Although mathematical ideas rooted in nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation theory have been used to quantify this picture, the importance of time delays arising from multistep chemical reactions or cellular shape transformations have been ignored so far. We argue that this feature is crucial in understanding cell differentiation and explore the role of time delay in a model of a single-gene regulatory circuit. We show that the interplay of time-dependent drive and delay introduces a new regime where the system shows sustained oscillations between the two admissible steady states. We interpret these results in the light of recent perplexing experiments on inducing the pluripotent state in mouse somatic cells. We also comment on how such an oscillatory state can provide a framework for understanding more general feedback circuits in cell development. PMID:25165605

  7. What are the impacts of bias correction on future drought projections?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

    2015-06-01

    It is expected that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will continue to change our climate, and in turn the characteristics of future drought. Assessments of the risks of future droughts, when at a global or a continental scale, are often based on simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs). When raw GCM simulations are used, it is assumed that the future deviations from modelled historical climatology represent the future drought. On the other hand, it is known that raw GCM simulations are significantly biased for the variables that affect hydrology and a correction is needed before assessments can be performed. We investigate here whether drought assessments based on raw GCM simulations are biased and the typical extent of this bias. Our assessment is based on the use of monthly precipitation data from 18 CMIP3 GCMs, two popular bias correction alternatives and Australia as the study domain. A number of different precipitation drought attributes have been assessed. These include the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), multi-year rainfall statistics and a drought vulnerability statistic that measures the maximum deviation of a time series from its mean. We find significant differences between droughts assessments using raw GCM simulations and using bias corrected sequences. Large increases in drought frequencies are projected for some parts of Australia. Both bias correction methods moderate these increases. This result is consistent across the three different drought statistics. The bias corrected drought projections also generally have slightly more agreement (smaller range of future changes) across the GCMs compared to the raw projections, which is a promising result for attempting to reduce model structural uncertainty. What this study shows is raw model simulations can lead to incorrect drought assessments even at continental scales and bias corrections should be applied.

  8. Charge amplifier with bias compensation

    DOEpatents

    Johnson, Gary W.

    2002-01-01

    An ion beam uniformity monitor for very low beam currents using a high-sensitivity charge amplifier with bias compensation. The ion beam monitor is used to assess the uniformity of a raster-scanned ion beam, such as used in an ion implanter, and utilizes four Faraday cups placed in the geometric corners of the target area. Current from each cup is integrated with respect to time, thus measuring accumulated dose, or charge, in Coulombs. By comparing the dose at each corner, a qualitative assessment of ion beam uniformity is made possible. With knowledge of the relative area of the Faraday cups, the ion flux and areal dose can also be obtained.

  9. Modeling and simulation of blast-induced, early-time intracranial wave physics leading to traumatic brain injury.

    SciTech Connect

    Ford, Corey C.; Taylor, Paul Allen

    2008-02-01

    The objective of this modeling and simulation study was to establish the role of stress wave interactions in the genesis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) from exposure to explosive blast. A high resolution (1 mm{sup 3} voxels), 5 material model of the human head was created by segmentation of color cryosections from the Visible Human Female dataset. Tissue material properties were assigned from literature values. The model was inserted into the shock physics wave code, CTH, and subjected to a simulated blast wave of 1.3 MPa (13 bars) peak pressure from anterior, posterior and lateral directions. Three dimensional plots of maximum pressure, volumetric tension, and deviatoric (shear) stress demonstrated significant differences related to the incident blast geometry. In particular, the calculations revealed focal brain regions of elevated pressure and deviatoric (shear) stress within the first 2 milliseconds of blast exposure. Calculated maximum levels of 15 KPa deviatoric, 3.3 MPa pressure, and 0.8 MPa volumetric tension were observed before the onset of significant head accelerations. Over a 2 msec time course, the head model moved only 1 mm in response to the blast loading. Doubling the blast strength changed the resulting intracranial stress magnitudes but not their distribution. We conclude that stress localization, due to early time wave interactions, may contribute to the development of multifocal axonal injury underlying TBI. We propose that a contribution to traumatic brain injury from blast exposure, and most likely blunt impact, can occur on a time scale shorter than previous model predictions and before the onset of linear or rotational accelerations traditionally associated with the development of TBI.

  10. Bias in Estimation of Hippocampal Atrophy using Deformation-Based Morphometry Arises from Asymmetric Global Normalization: An Illustration in ADNI 3 Tesla MRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Yushkevich, Paul A.; Avants, Brian B.; Das, Sandhitsu R.; Pluta, John; Altinay, Murat; Craige, Caryne

    2009-01-01

    Measurement of brain change due to neurodegenerative disease and treatment is one of the fundamental tasks of neuroimaging. Deformation-based morphometry (DBM) has been long recognized as an effective and sensitive tool for estimating the change in the volume of brain regions over time. This paper demonstrates that a straightforward application of DBM to estimate the change in the volume of the hippocampus can result in substantial bias, i.e., an overestimation of the rate of change in hippocampal volume. In ADNI data, this bias is manifested as a non-zero intercept of the regression line fitted to the 6 and 12 month rates of hippocampal atrophy. The bias is further confirmed by applying DBM to repeat scans of subjects acquired on the same day. This bias appears to be the result of asymmetry in the interpolation of baseline and followup images during longitudinal image registration. Correcting this asymmetry leads to bias-free atrophy estimation. PMID:20005963

  11. Lead and the Romans

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reddy, Aravind; Braun, Charles L.

    2010-01-01

    Lead poisoning has been a problem since early history and continues into modern times. An appealing characteristic of lead is that many lead salts are sweet. In the absence of cane and beet sugars, early Romans used "sugar of lead" (lead acetate) to sweeten desserts, fruits, and sour wine. People most at risk would have been those who consumed the…

  12. Time is no healer: increasing restoration age does not lead to improved benthic invertebrate communities in restored river reaches.

    PubMed

    Leps, Moritz; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Lorenz, Armin W; Haase, Peter

    2016-07-01

    Evidence for successful restoration of riverine communities is scarce, particularly for benthic invertebrates. Among the multitude of reasons discussed so far for the lack of observed effects is too short of a time span between implementation and monitoring. Yet, studies that explicitly focus on the importance of restoration age are rare. We present a comprehensive study based on 44 river restoration projects in Germany, focusing on standardized benthic invertebrate sampling. A broad gradient ranging from 1 to 25years in restoration age was available. In contrast to clear improvements in habitat heterogeneity, benthic community responses to restoration were inconsistent when compared to control sections. Taxon richness increased in response to restoration, but abundance, diversity and various assessment metrics did not respond clearly. Restoration age was a poor predictor of community composition and community change, as no significant linear responses could be detected using 34 metrics. Moreover, only 5 out of 34 tested metrics showed non-linear shifts at restoration ages of 2 to 3years. This might be interpreted as an indication of a post-restoration disturbance followed by a re-establishment of pre-restoration conditions. BIO-ENV analysis and fourth-corner modeling underlined the low importance of restoration age, but revealed high importance of catchment-scale characteristics (e.g., ecoregion, catchment size and land use) in controlling community composition and community change. Overall, a lack of time for community development did not appear to be the ultimate reason for impaired benthic invertebrate communities. Instead, catchment-scale characteristics override the effectiveness of restoration. To enhance the ecological success of future river restoration projects, we recommend improving water quality conditions and catchment-scale processes (e.g., connectivity and hydrodynamics) in addition to restoring local habitat structure. PMID:27046138

  13. Thinking in Black and White: Conscious thought increases racially biased judgments through biased face memory.

    PubMed

    Strick, Madelijn; Stoeckart, Peter F; Dijksterhuis, Ap

    2015-11-01

    It is a common research finding that conscious thought helps people to avoid racial discrimination. These three experiments, however, illustrate that conscious thought may increase biased face memory, which leads to increased judgment bias (i.e., preferring White to Black individuals). In Experiments 1 and 2, university students formed impressions of Black and White housemate candidates. They judged the candidates either immediately (immediate decision condition), thought about their judgments for a few minutes (conscious thought condition), or performed an unrelated task for a few minutes (unconscious thought condition). Conscious thinkers and immediate decision-makers showed a stronger face memory bias than unconscious thinkers, and this mediated increased judgment bias, although not all results were significant. Experiment 3 used a new, different paradigm and showed that a Black male was remembered as darker after a period of conscious thought than after a period of unconscious thought. Implications for racial prejudice are discussed. PMID:26164254

  14. Taphonomic bias in pollen and spore record: a review

    SciTech Connect

    Fisk, L.H.

    1986-05-01

    The high dispersibility and ease of pollen and spore transport have led researchers to conclude erroneously that fossil pollen and spore floras are relatively complete and record unbiased representations of the regional vegetation extant at the time of sediment deposition. That such conclusions are unjustified is obvious when the authors remember that polynomorphs are merely organic sedimentary particles and undergo hydraulic sorting not unlike clastic sedimentary particles. Prior to deposition in the fossil record, pollen and spores can be hydraulically sorted by size, shape, and weight, subtly biasing relative frequencies in fossil assemblages. Sorting during transport results in palynofloras whose composition is environmentally dependent. Therefore, depositional environment is an important consideration to make correct inferences on the source vegetation. Sediment particle size of original rock samples may contain important information on the probability of a taphonomically biased pollen and spore assemblage. In addition, a reasonable test of hydraulic sorting is the distribution of pollen grain sizes and shapes in each assemblage. Any assemblage containing a wide spectrum of grain sizes and shapes has obviously not undergone significant sorting. If unrecognized, taphonomic bias can lead to paleoecologic, paleoclimatic, and even biostratigraphic misinterpretations.

  15. A strong deletion bias in nonallelic gene conversion.

    PubMed

    Assis, Raquel; Kondrashov, Alexey S

    2012-01-01

    Gene conversion is the unidirectional transfer of genetic information between orthologous (allelic) or paralogous (nonallelic) genomic segments. Though a number of studies have examined nucleotide replacements, little is known about length difference mutations produced by gene conversion. Here, we investigate insertions and deletions produced by nonallelic gene conversion in 338 Drosophila and 10,149 primate paralogs. Using a direct phylogenetic approach, we identify 179 insertions and 614 deletions in Drosophila paralogs, and 132 insertions and 455 deletions in primate paralogs. Thus, nonallelic gene conversion is strongly deletion-biased in both lineages, with almost 3.5 times as many conversion-induced deletions as insertions. In primates, the deletion bias is considerably stronger for long indels and, in both lineages, the per-site rate of gene conversion is orders of magnitudes higher than that of ordinary mutation. Due to this high rate, deletion-biased nonallelic gene conversion plays a key role in genome size evolution, leading to the cooperative shrinkage and eventual disappearance of selectively neutral paralogs. PMID:22359514

  16. Lead Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... Experiments Stories Lessons Topics Games Activities Lessons MENU Lead Poisoning Kids Homepage Topics Pollution Lead Poisoning What is ... you can avoid contact with it! Sources of Lead Poisoning HOUSE PAINTS: Before1950, lead-based paint was used ...

  17. Lead Test

    MedlinePlus

    ... to determine lead sources, educating family members about lead poisoning , and instituting follow-up testing to monitor the ... high levels of lead, see the article on Lead Poisoning . The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has ...

  18. Lead Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    Lead Poisoning What is it and who is affected? Lead is a highly toxic substance, exposure to which ... and children can suffer from the effects of lead poisoning, but childhood lead poisoning is much more frequent. ...

  19. Investigating the efficacy of attention bias modification in reducing high spider fear: The role of individual differences in initial bias

    PubMed Central

    Fox, Elaine; Zougkou, Konstantina; Ashwin, Chris; Cahill, Shanna

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives Attention Bias Modification (ABM) targets attention bias (AB) towards threat and is a potential therapeutic intervention for anxiety. The current study investigated whether initial AB (towards or away from spider images) influenced the effectiveness of ABM in spider fear. Methods AB was assessed with an attentional probe task consisting of spider and neutral images presented simultaneously followed by a probe in spider congruent or spider incongruent locations. Response time (RT) differences between spider and neutral trials > 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Toward’ threat. RT difference < - 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Away’ from threat, and a difference between −25 ms and +25 ms was considered ‘No Bias’. Participants were categorized into Initial Bias groups using pre-ABM AB scores calculated at the end of the study. 66 participants' (Bias Toward n = 27, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 21) were randomly assigned to ABM-active training designed to reduce or eliminate a bias toward threat and 61 (Bias Toward n = 17, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 26) to ABM-control. Results ABM-active had the largest impact on those demonstrating an initial Bias Towards spider images in terms of changing AB and reducing Spider Fear Vulnerability, with the Bias Away group experiencing least benefit from ABM. However, all Initial Bias groups benefited equally from active ABM in a Stress Task. Limitations Participants were high spider fearful but not formally diagnosed with a specific phobia. Therefore, results should be confirmed within a clinical population. Conclusions Individual differences in Initial Bias may be an important determinant of ABM efficacy. PMID:26060177

  20. Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

    1988-01-01

    The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

  1. Recursive bias estimation for high dimensional smoothers

    SciTech Connect

    Hengartner, Nicolas W; Matzner-lober, Eric; Cornillon, Pierre - Andre

    2008-01-01

    In multivariate nonparametric analysis, sparseness of the covariates also called curse of dimensionality, forces one to use large smoothing parameters. This leads to biased smoothers. Instead of focusing on optimally selecting the smoothing parameter, we fix it to some reasonably large value to ensure an over-smoothing of the data. The resulting smoother has a small variance but a substantial bias. In this paper, we propose to iteratively correct the bias initial estimator by an estimate of the latter obtained by smoothing the residuals. We examine in detail the convergence of the iterated procedure for classical smoothers and relate our procedure to L{sub 2}-Boosting. We apply our method to simulated and real data and show that our method compares favorably with existing procedures.

  2. Identification of new leishmanicidal peptide lead structures by automated real-time monitoring of changes in intracellular ATP.

    PubMed

    Luque-Ortega, J Román; Saugar, José M; Chiva, Cristina; Andreu, David; Rivas, Luis

    2003-10-01

    Leishmanicidal drugs interacting stoichiometrically with parasite plasma membrane lipids, thus promoting permeability, have raised significant expectations for Leishmania chemotherapy due to their nil or very low induction of resistance. Inherent in this process is a decrease in intracellular ATP, either wasted by ionic pumps to restore membrane potential or directly leaked through larger membrane lesions caused by the drug. We have adapted a luminescence method for fast automated real-time monitoring of this process, using Leishmania donovani promastigotes transfected with a cytoplasmic luciferase form, previously tested for anti-mitochondrial drugs. The system was first assayed against a set of well-known membrane-active drugs [amphotericin B, nystatin, cecropin A-melittin peptide CA(1-8)M(1-18)], plus two ionophoric polyethers (narasin and salinomycin) not previously tested on Leishmania, then used to screen seven new cecropin A-melittin hybrid peptides. All membrane-active compounds showed a good correlation between inhibition of luminescence and leishmanicidal activity. Induction of membrane permeability was demonstrated by dissipation of membrane potential, SYTOX trade mark Green influx and membrane damage assessed by electron microscopy, except for the polyethers, where ATP decrease was due to inhibition of its mitochondrial synthesis. Five of the test peptides showed an ED50 around 1 microM on promastigotes. These peptides, with equal or better activity than 26-residue-long CA(1-8)M(1-18), are the shortest leishmanicidal peptides described so far, and validate our luminescence assay as a fast and cheap screening tool for membrane-active compounds. PMID:12864731

  3. Identification of new leishmanicidal peptide lead structures by automated real-time monitoring of changes in intracellular ATP.

    PubMed Central

    Luque-Ortega, J Román; Saugar, José M; Chiva, Cristina; Andreu, David; Rivas, Luis

    2003-01-01

    Leishmanicidal drugs interacting stoichiometrically with parasite plasma membrane lipids, thus promoting permeability, have raised significant expectations for Leishmania chemotherapy due to their nil or very low induction of resistance. Inherent in this process is a decrease in intracellular ATP, either wasted by ionic pumps to restore membrane potential or directly leaked through larger membrane lesions caused by the drug. We have adapted a luminescence method for fast automated real-time monitoring of this process, using Leishmania donovani promastigotes transfected with a cytoplasmic luciferase form, previously tested for anti-mitochondrial drugs. The system was first assayed against a set of well-known membrane-active drugs [amphotericin B, nystatin, cecropin A-melittin peptide CA(1-8)M(1-18)], plus two ionophoric polyethers (narasin and salinomycin) not previously tested on Leishmania, then used to screen seven new cecropin A-melittin hybrid peptides. All membrane-active compounds showed a good correlation between inhibition of luminescence and leishmanicidal activity. Induction of membrane permeability was demonstrated by dissipation of membrane potential, SYTOX trade mark Green influx and membrane damage assessed by electron microscopy, except for the polyethers, where ATP decrease was due to inhibition of its mitochondrial synthesis. Five of the test peptides showed an ED50 around 1 microM on promastigotes. These peptides, with equal or better activity than 26-residue-long CA(1-8)M(1-18), are the shortest leishmanicidal peptides described so far, and validate our luminescence assay as a fast and cheap screening tool for membrane-active compounds. PMID:12864731

  4. Assessment of risk of bias in translational science

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Risk of bias in translational medicine may take one of three forms: A. a systematic error of methodology as it pertains to measurement or sampling (e.g., selection bias), B. a systematic defect of design that leads to estimates of experimental and control groups, and of effect sizes that substantially deviate from true values (e.g., information bias), and C. a systematic distortion of the analytical process, which results in a misrepresentation of the data with consequential errors of inference (e.g., inferential bias). Risk of bias can seriously adulterate the internal and the external validity of a clinical study, and, unless it is identified and systematically evaluated, can seriously hamper the process of comparative effectiveness and efficacy research and analysis for practice. The Cochrane Group and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality have independently developed instruments for assessing the meta-construct of risk of bias. The present article begins to discuss this dialectic. PMID:23927081

  5. Projecting my envy onto you: neurocognitive mechanisms of an offline emotional egocentricity bias.

    PubMed

    Steinbeis, Nikolaus; Singer, Tania

    2014-11-15

    Humans often project their own beliefs, desires and emotions onto others, indicating an inherent egocentrism. In five studies we investigated the neurocognitive mechanisms underlying emotional egocentricity bias (EEB) and specifically an offline EEB, defined as the projection of one's own tendency to react with a certain emotional response pattern in a given situation onto other people. We used a competitive reaction time game associated with monetary gains and losses that allowed inducing feelings of envy and Schadenfreude. While we found evidence for the first hand experience of envy and Schadenfreude, we also observed an offline bias, that is participants on average projected feelings of envy and Schadenfreude when having to judge others. Importantly the extent of experienced and projected social emotions were highly correlated. This bias was observed when participants were both directly involved and also as an uninvolved party, suggesting the offline bias to be independent of the presently experienced emotion. Under increased time pressure however an online bias emerged whereby participants just projected their presently experienced emotions onto the other. Finally, we show that on the neural level shared neuronal networks underlie the offline EEB at least for envy. Thus, for envy, activity of the same part of anterior insula was sensitive to individual differences both in the experience and the projection of envy. These findings outline the set of circumstances leading to specific types of empathic attribution biases and show that individual differences in the experience of social emotions are predictive of the offline egocentricity bias both on a behavioral as well as a neural level. These data extend present models on the neurocognitive mechanisms of interpersonal understanding in the socio-affective domain. PMID:25117603

  6. Cognitive neuroscience. Unlearning implicit social biases during sleep.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W; Creery, Jessica D; Vargas, Iliana M; Bodenhausen, Galen V; Paller, Ken A

    2015-05-29

    Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here, we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counterstereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison with the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained 1 week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counterstereotype training and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent. PMID:26023137

  7. Assessment of bias for MRI diffusion tensor imaging using SIMEX.

    PubMed

    Lauzon, Carolyn B; Asman, Andrew J; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Caffo, Brian C; Landman, Bennett A

    2011-01-01

    Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) is a Magnetic Resonance Imaging method for measuring water diffusion in vivo. One powerful DTI contrast is fractional anisotropy (FA). FA reflects the strength of water's diffusion directional preference and is a primary metric for neuronal fiber tracking. As with other DTI contrasts, FA measurements are obscured by the well established presence of bias. DTI bias has been challenging to assess because it is a multivariable problem including SNR, six tensor parameters, and the DTI collection and processing method used. SIMEX is a modem statistical technique that estimates bias by tracking measurement error as a function of added noise. Here, we use SIMEX to assess bias in FA measurements and show the method provides; i) accurate FA bias estimates, ii) representation of FA bias that is data set specific and accessible to non-statisticians, and iii) a first time possibility for incorporation of bias into DTI data analysis. PMID:21995019

  8. HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

    2012-04-01

    Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for

  9. Influence of bias correction on simulated landcover changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAfee, Stephanie A.; Russell, Joellen L.; Webb, Robert S.

    2012-08-01

    Vegetation responses to climate change will provide feedbacks that could amplify or moderate regional temperature and precipitation changes. However, systematic biases in the simulation of regional climate across general circulation models (GCMs) may lead to consistent misrepresentation of vegetation changes and associated ecological processes. This study uses Köppen classification driven by simulated climate with and without bias correction. Our results indicate that because climate biases lead to inaccuracies in land cover, corrected and uncorrected analyses result in distinct land cover changes in regions (the tropics and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere) that have strong climate feedbacks, even though the climate change is identical. While a more realistic biosphere may ameliorate some model biases, our results illustrate the potential for existing errors to influence feedbacks and suggest that, as models become more complex, nuanced understanding of bias propagation will be critical in assessing the uncertainty of projections and common downscaling techniques.

  10. Negativity bias and basic values.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Shalom H

    2014-06-01

    Basic values explain more variance in political attitudes and preferences than other personality and sociodemographic variables. The values most relevant to the political domain are those likely to reflect the degree of negativity bias. Value conflicts that represent negativity bias clarify differences between what worries conservatives and liberals and suggest that relations between ideology and negativity bias are linear. PMID:24970450

  11. Assessing Bias in Search Engines.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mowshowitz, Abbe; Kawaguchi, Akira

    2002-01-01

    Addresses the measurement of bias in search engines on the Web, defining bias as the balance and representation of items in a collection retrieved from a database for a set of queries. Assesses bias by measuring the deviation from the ideal of the distribution produced by a particular search engine. (Author/LRW)

  12. Long Lead-Time Forecasting of Snowpack and Precipitation in the Upper Snake River Basin using Pacific Oceanic-Atmospheric Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, S.; Tootle, G.; Parkinson, S.; Holbrook, P.; Blestrud, D.

    2012-12-01

    Water managers and planners in the western United States are challenged with managing resources for various uses, including hydropower. Hydropower is especially important throughout the Upper Snake River Basin, where a series of hydropower projects provide a low cost renewable energy source to the region. These hydropower projects include several dams that are managed by Idaho Power Company (IPC). Planners and managers rely heavily on forecasts of snowpack and precipitation to plan for hydropower availability and the need for other generation sources. There is a pressing need for improved snowpack and precipitation forecast models in the Upper Snake River Basin. This research investigates the ability of Pacific oceanic-atmospheric data and climatic variables to provide skillful long lead-time (three to nine months) forecasts of snowpack and precipitation, and examines the benefits of segregating the warm and cold phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to reduce the temperature variability within the target dataset. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was used to identify regions of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) and 500mbar geopotential heights (Z500) for various lead times (three, six, and nine months) that were teleconnected with snowpack and precipitation stations in Upper Snake River Basin headwaters. The identified Pacific Ocean SST and Z500 regions were used to create indices that became predictors in a non-parametric forecasting model. The majority of forecasts resulted in positive statistical skill, which indicated an improvement of the forecast over the climatology forecast (no-skill forecast). The results from the forecasts models indicated that derived indices from the SVD analysis resulted in improved forecast skill when compared to forecasts using established climate indices. Segregation of the cold phase PDO years resulted in the identification of different regions in the Pacific Ocean and vastly improved skill for the nine month

  13. Test Bias and the Elimination of Racism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sedlacek, William E.

    1977-01-01

    Three types of test bias are discussed: content bias, atmosphere bias, and use bias. Use bias is considered the most important. Tests reflect the bias in society, and eliminating test bias means eliminating racism and sexism in society. A six-stage model to eliminate racism and sexism is presented. (Author)

  14. Leading Learning in Our Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trilling, Bernie

    2010-01-01

    Important tools that schools need to support a 21st century approach to teaching and learning include the usual suspects: the Internet, pen and paper, cell phones, educational games, tests and quizzes, good teachers, caring communities, educational funding, and loving parents. All of these items and more contribute to a 21st century education, but…

  15. Lead Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    Lead is a metal that occurs naturally in the earth's crust. Lead can be found in all parts of our ... from human activities such as mining and manufacturing. Lead used to be in paint; older houses may ...

  16. Lead poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... swallows a lead object or breathes in lead dust, some of the poison can stay in the ... a health problem. Lead is everywhere, including dirt, dust, new toys, and old house paint. Unfortunately, you ...

  17. Lead Toxicity

    MedlinePlus

    ... homes. • Most people, especially children, who suffer from lead poisoning are exposed through lead-contaminated household dust or ... and six if they are at risk of lead poisoning (see: ). Who can I call to get more ...

  18. Biased clustered substitutions in the human genome: The footprints of male-driven biased gene conversion

    PubMed Central

    Dreszer, Timothy R.; Wall, Gregory D.; Haussler, David; Pollard, Katherine S.

    2007-01-01

    We examined fixed substitutions in the human lineage since divergence from the common ancestor with the chimpanzee, and determined what fraction are AT to GC (weak-to-strong). Substitutions that are densely clustered on the chromosomes show a remarkable excess of weak-to-strong “biased” substitutions. These unexpected biased clustered substitutions (UBCS) are common near the telomeres of all autosomes but not the sex chromosomes. Regions of extreme bias are enriched for genes. Human and chimp orthologous regions show a striking similarity in the shape and magnitude of their respective UBCS maps, suggesting a relatively stable force leads to clustered bias. The strong and stable signal near telomeres may have participated in the evolution of isochores. One exception to the UBCS pattern found in all autosomes is chromosome 2, which shows a UBCS peak midchromosome, mapping to the fusion site of two ancestral chromosomes. This provides evidence that the fusion occurred as recently as 740,000 years ago and no more than ∼3 million years ago. No biased clustering was found in SNPs, suggesting that clusters of biased substitutions are selected from mutations. UBCS is strongly correlated with male (and not female) recombination rates, which explains the lack of UBCS signal on chromosome X. These observations support the hypothesis that biased gene conversion (BGC), specifically in the male germline, played a significant role in the evolution of the human genome. PMID:17785536

  19. On System-Dependent Sources of Uncertainty and Bias in Ultrasonic Quantitative Shear-Wave Imaging.

    PubMed

    Deng, Yufeng; Rouze, Ned C; Palmeri, Mark L; Nightingale, Kathryn R

    2016-03-01

    Ultrasonic quantitative shear-wave imaging methods have been developed over the last decade to estimate tissue elasticity by measuring the speed of propagating shear waves following acoustic radiation force excitation. This work discusses eight sources of uncertainty and bias arising from ultrasound system-dependent parameters in ultrasound shear-wave speed (SWS) measurements. Each of the eight sources of error is discussed in the context of a linear, isotropic, elastic, homogeneous medium, combining previously reported analyses with Field II simulations, full-wave 2-D acoustic propagation simulations, and experimental studies. Errors arising from both spatial and temporal sources lead to errors in SWS measurements. Arrival time estimation noise, speckle bias, hardware fluctuations, and phase aberration cause uncertainties (variance) in SWS measurements, while pulse repetition frequency (PRF) and beamforming errors, as well as coupling medium sound speed mismatch, cause biases in SWS measurements (accuracy errors). Calibration of the sources of bias is an important step in the development of shear-wave imaging systems. In a well-calibrated system, where the sources of bias are minimized, and averaging over a region of interest (ROI) is employed to reduce the sources of uncertainty, an SWS error can be expected. PMID:26886980

  20. Social desirability bias in diary panels is evident in panelists' behavioral frequency.

    PubMed

    Toh, Rex S; Lee, Eunkyu; Hu, Michael Y

    2006-10-01

    The purpose was to analyze a large-scale database, a national sample of 1108 heads of households collected by AT&T, to show that behavioral frequencies of the activities of consumer diary panelists may regress toward the population mean during the diary-keeping period given social desirability bias produced by the conditioning effect of keeping diaries. This effect is distinguished from regression toward the mean, a statistical phenomenon reflecting happenstance of extreme initial values. Social desirability bias is demonstrated in two ways-by observing decreasing coefficients of variation over time and by detecting a greater proportion of panelists' behavioral frequencies moving toward the population mean than moving away from it. Both cannot be explained by regression toward the mean. Social desirability bias was manifest only during the early stages of the diary-keeping period and only for activities high in involvement. The presence of social desirability bias in diary panels implies that, when people are subjected to observation, diary observations may be contaminated, leading to the mistaken impression that the population is more homogeneous than it actually is. Thus it is important for researchers to monitor the diary panel carefully to detect social desirability bias when engaged in longitudinal studies. PMID:17153800

  1. Sampling biases in CMIP5 decadal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choudhury, Dipayan; Sharma, Ashish; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sivakumar, Bellie

    2016-04-01

    Recent studies examining the fidelity of decadal hindcast experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project have highlighted the need for larger ensembles of forecasts, compared to the initial five yearly spaced initializations, to help correct for model biases (drift). This study quantifies differences in the two drift estimates in sea surface temperature (SST) and SST anomaly (SSTA) predictions, between experiments initialized every 5 years and those initialized every year. The effect of the recommended mean drift correction, on the two sets of predictions, is also analyzed. Our results indicate that differences between the SST drift estimates are largest over the tropical Pacific. Moreover, this difference is large for Niño 3.4 and almost negligible for the global average SSTA. Drift correction as per the mean drift from the 5 year case leads to spurious peaks in the drift-corrected Niño 3.4 (and the tropical Pacific) and sporadic improvements in skill. This problem with Niño 3.4 stems from an aliasing that occurs during the drift calculation that results from a combination of the timing of major El Niño events in relation to the initialization dates. The study recommends accounting for such sampling effects while considering any subset of the full data set.

  2. Opportunistic biases: Their origins, effects, and an integrated solution.

    PubMed

    DeCoster, Jamie; Sparks, Erin A; Sparks, Jordan C; Sparks, Glenn G; Sparks, Cheri W

    2015-09-01

    Researchers commonly explore their data in multiple ways before deciding which analyses they will include in the final versions of their papers. While this improves the chances of researchers finding publishable results, it introduces an "opportunistic bias," such that the reported relations are stronger or otherwise more supportive of the researcher's theories than they would be without the exploratory process. The magnitudes of opportunistic biases can often be stronger than those of the effects being investigated, leading to invalid conclusions and a lack of clarity in research results. Authors typically do not report their exploratory procedures, so opportunistic biases are very difficult to detect just by reading the final version of a research report. In this article, we explain how a number of accepted research practices can lead to opportunistic biases, discuss the prevalence of these practices in psychology, consider the different effects that opportunistic biases have on psychological science, evaluate the strategies that methodologists have proposed to prevent or correct for the effects of these biases, and introduce an integrated solution to reduce the prevalence and influence of opportunistic biases. The recent prominence of articles discussing questionable research practices both in scientific journals and in the public media underscores the importance of understanding how opportunistic biases are created and how we might undo their effects. PMID:26348333

  3. Summertime central U.S. warm bias examined in the short-term hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Lo, M. H.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we evaluate the central U.S. summertime surface warm temperature bias seen in many climate models. The main focus is to identify the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation processes in contributing to the temperature biases. We use short-term hindcast approach and look at the growth of the error as a function of hindcast lead time. Our results of Community Earth System Model compared to data from U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site and other available observations indicate that the lack of soil moisture due to insufficient precipitation in the model is likely the primary source contribution to surface energy and temperature biases. Other processes that may lead to the warm biases are also explored. (http://portal.nersc.gov/project/capt/CAUSES/) (This study is funded by the RGCM and ASR programs of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-658004)

  4. Lead Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... our environment. Much of it comes from human activities such as mining and manufacturing. Lead used to be in paint; older houses may still have lead paint. You could be exposed to lead by Eating food or drinking water that contains lead. Water pipes in older homes ...

  5. Lead poisoning

    SciTech Connect

    Rekus, J.F.

    1992-08-01

    Construction workers who weld, cut or blast structural steel coated with lead-based paint are at significant risk of lead poisoning. Although technology to control these exposures may not have existed when the lead standard was promulgated, it is available today. Employers who do not take steps to protect their employees from lead exposure may be cited and fined severely for their failure.

  6. Structural and Morphological Evolution of Lead Dendrites during Electrochemical Migration

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Minghua; Liao, Hong-Gang; Niu, Kaiyang; Zheng, Haimei

    2013-01-01

    The electrochemical deposition and dissolution of lead on gold electrodes immersed in an aqueous solution of lead nitrate were studied in situ using a biasing liquid cell by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). We investigate in real time the growth mechanisms of lead dendrites as deposited on the electrodes under an applied potential. TEM images reveal that lead dendrites are developed by the fast protrusion of lead branches in the electrolyte and tip splitting. And, the fast growing tip of the dendritic branch is composed of polycrystalline nanograins and it develops into a single crystalline branch eventually. This study demonstrated unique electrochemical growth of single crystal dendrites through nucleation, aggregation, alignment and attachment of randomly oriented small grains. Additionally, we found the lead concentration in the electrolyte drastically influences the morphology of dendritic formation. PMID:24233151

  7. Researching Sex Bias in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlan, Dan

    This paper outlines five methods of research on sex bias in the classroom: one-time survey, one class/one treatment, two class/two treatment, one class/random assignment to treatment, and analysis of differentiated effect. It shows how each method could be used in attempting to measure the effect of a unit on Norma Klein's "Mom, the Wolfman and…

  8. Magnification bias in galactic microlensing searches

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemiroff, Robert J.

    1994-01-01

    It is shown that a significant amount of detectable gravitational microlensing events that could potentially be found by Massively Parallel Photometry (MAPP) project (such as the MACHO, EROS, and OGLE collaborations) will occur for stars too dim to be easily noticed individually by these projects. This is the result of a large magnification bias effect, a bias of including high-magnification events in any flux-limited sample. The probablility of detecting these events may be as high as 2.3 times the lensing probability of stars currently being monitored by MAPP collaborations.

  9. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

    PubMed

    Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology. PMID:27008475

  10. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C.; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology. PMID:27008475

  11. Attentional Bias Predicts Outcome in Smoking Cessation

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Andrew J.; Shiffman, Saul; Sayette, Michael A.; Paty, Jean A.; Gwaltney, Chad J.; Balabanis, Mark H.

    2007-01-01

    Most attempts to quit smoking end in failure, with many quitters relapsing in the first few days. Responses to smoking-related cues may precipitate relapse. A modified emotional Stroop task—which measures the extent to which smoking-related words disrupt performance on a reaction time (RT) task—was used to index the distracting effects of smoking-related cues. Smokers (N = 158) randomized to a high-dose nicotine patch (35 mg) or placebo patch completed the Stroop task on the 1st day of a quit attempt. Smokers using an active patch exhibited less attentional bias, making fewer errors on smoking-related words. Smokers who showed greater attentional bias (slowed RT on the first block of smoking words) were significantly more likely to lapse in the short-term, even when controlling for self-reported urges at the test session. Attentional bias measures may tap an important component of dependence. PMID:12940394

  12. Hindsight bias, outcome knowledge and adaptive learning.

    PubMed

    Henriksen, K; Kaplan, H

    2003-12-01

    The ubiquitous nature of hindsight bias is a cause for concern for those engaged in investigations and retrospective analysis of medical error. Hindsight does not equal foresight. Investigations that are anchored to outcome knowledge run the risk of not capturing the complexities and uncertainties facing sharp end personnel and why their actions made sense at the time. Important lessons go unlearned if the exercise is simply to back track someone else's decision landmarks. Outcome knowledge can also bias our thinking on the quality of the processes that led to the outcome. This paper examines the influence of outcome knowledge in relation to reconstructive memory and legal testimony, ways for reducing the impact of outcome knowledge, and an adaptive learning framework that places hindsight bias in a broader context of rapid updating of knowledge. PMID:14645895

  13. Growth rates and interface shapes in germanium and lead tin telluride observed in-situ, real-time in vertical Bridgman furnaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barber, P. G.; Berry, R. F.; Debnam, W. J.; Fripp, A. L.; Woodell, G.; Simchick, R. T.

    1995-01-01

    Using the advanced technology developed to visualize the melt-solid interface in low Prandtl number materials, crystal growth rates and interface shapes have been measured in germanium and lead tin telluride semiconductors grown in vertical Bridgman furnaces. The experimental importance of using in-situ, real time observations to determine interface shapes, to measure crystal growth rates, and to improve furnace and ampoule designs is demonstrated. The interface shapes observed in-situ, in real-time were verified by quenching and mechanically induced interface demarcation, and they were also confirmed using machined models to ascertain the absence of geometric distortions. Interface shapes depended upon the interface position in the furnace insulation zone, varied with the nature of the crystal being grown, and were dependent on the extent of transition zones at the ends of the ampoule. Actual growth rates varied significantly from the constant translation rate in response to the thermophysical properties of the crystal and its melt and the thermal conditions existing in the furnace at the interface. In the elemental semiconductor germanium the observed rates of crystal growth exceeded the imposed translation rate, but in the compound semiconductor lead tin telluride the observed rates of growth were less than the translation rate. Finally, the extent of ampoule thermal loading influenced the interface positions, the shapes, and the growth rates.

  14. Developing the Bias Blind Spot: Increasing Skepticism towards Others

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Two experiments with eighty-eight 7- to 10-year-olds examined the bias blind spot in children. Both younger and older children rated themselves as less likely than a specific other (Experiment 1) or an average child (Experiment 2) to commit various biases. These self-other differences were also more extreme for biased behaviors than for other behaviors. At times, older children demonstrated stronger self-other differences than younger children, which seemed primarily driven by older children’s judgments about bias in others. These findings suggest that, although the bias blind spot exists as soon as children recognize other-committed biases, what changes over development is how skeptical children are towards others. PMID:26523603

  15. Skill improvement of seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts using bias-correction and ensemble calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco; Vlot, Willem; Schmeits, Maurice; Guemas, Virginie

    2016-04-01

    We explore the standard error and skill of dynamical seasonal sea ice forecasts of the Arctic using different bias-correction and ensemble calibration methods. The latter is often used in weather forecasting, but so far has not been applied to Arctic sea ice forecasts. We use seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice of a 5-member ensemble forecast using the fully coupled GCM EC-Earth, with model initial states obtained by nudging towards ORAS4 and ERA-Interim. The raw model forecasts contain large biases in total sea ice area, especially during the summer months. This is mainly caused by a difference in average seasonal cycle between EC-Earth and observations, which translates directly into the forecasts yielding large biases. Further errors are introduced by the differences in long term trend between the observed sea ice, and the uninitialised EC-earth simulation. We find that extended logistic regression (ELR) and heteroscedastic extended logistic regression (HELR) both prove viable ensemble calibration methods, and improve the forecasts substantially compared to standard bias correction techniques. No clear distinction between ELR and HELR is found. Forecasts starting in May have higher skill (CRPSS > 0 up to 5 months lead time) than forecasts starting in August (2-3 months) and November (2-3 months), with trend-corrected climatology as reference. Analysis of regional skill in the Arctic shows distinct differences, where mainly the Arctic ocean and the Kara and Barents sea prove to be one of the more predictable regions with skilful forecasts starting in May up to 5-6 months lead time. Again, forecasts starting in August and November show much lower regional skill. Overall, it is still difficult to beat relative simple statistical forecasts, but by using ELR and HELR we are getting reasonably close to skilful seasonal forecasts up to 12 months lead time. These results show there is large potential, and need, for using ensemble calibration in seasonal forecasts of

  16. Occupational Cohort Time Scales

    PubMed Central

    Roth, H. Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This study explores how highly correlated time variables (occupational cohort time scales) contribute to confounding and ambiguity of interpretation. Methods: Occupational cohort time scales were identified and organized through simple equations of three time scales (relational triads) and the connections between these triads (time scale web). The behavior of the time scales was examined when constraints were imposed on variable ranges and interrelationships. Results: Constraints on a time scale in a triad create high correlations between the other two time scales. These correlations combine with the connections between relational triads to produce association paths. High correlation between time scales leads to ambiguity of interpretation. Conclusions: Understanding the properties of occupational cohort time scales, their relational triads, and the time scale web is helpful in understanding the origins of otherwise obscure confounding bias and ambiguity of interpretation. PMID:25647318

  17. Lead poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... lead is still found in some modern faucets. Soil contaminated by decades of car exhaust or years ... house paint scrapings. Lead is more common in soil near highways and houses. Hobbies involving soldering, stained ...

  18. New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

    2005-05-01

    of the constituant layers. The spirit of this topical issue is, for the first time, to gather and survey recent and original developments, both experimental and theoretical, which bring new insights into the physics of exchange bias. It has been planned in relation with an international workshop exclusively devoted to exchange bias, namely IWEBMN’04 (International Workshop on Exchange Bias in Magnetic Nanostructures) that took place in Anglet, in the south west of France, from 16th to 18th September 2004. The conference gathered worldwide researchers in the area, both experimentalists and theoreticians. Several research paths are particularly active in the field of magnetic exchange coupling. The conference, as well as this topical issue, which was also open to contributions from scientists not participating in the conference, has been organized according to the following principles: 1. Epitaxial systems: Since the essential behavior of exchange bias critically depends on the atomic-level chemical and spin structure at the interface between the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic components, epitaxial AF/F systems in which the quality of the interface and the crystalline coherence are optimized and well known are ideal candidates for a better understanding of the underlying physics of exchange bias. The dependence of exchange bias on the spin configurations at the interfaces can be accomplished by selecting different crystallographic orientations. The role of interface roughness can also be understood from thin-film systems by changing the growth parameters, and correlations between the interface structure and exchange bias can be made, as reported in this issue. 2. Out-of-plane magnetized systems: While much important work has been devoted to the study of structures with in-plane magnetization, little has been done on the study of exchange bias and exchange coupling in samples with out-of-plane magnetization. Some systems can exhibit either in-plane or out

  19. Quantum Error Correction with Biased Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Peter

    Quantum computing offers powerful new techniques for speeding up the calculation of many classically intractable problems. Quantum algorithms can allow for the efficient simulation of physical systems, with applications to basic research, chemical modeling, and drug discovery; other algorithms have important implications for cryptography and internet security. At the same time, building a quantum computer is a daunting task, requiring the coherent manipulation of systems with many quantum degrees of freedom while preventing environmental noise from interacting too strongly with the system. Fortunately, we know that, under reasonable assumptions, we can use the techniques of quantum error correction and fault tolerance to achieve an arbitrary reduction in the noise level. In this thesis, we look at how additional information about the structure of noise, or "noise bias," can improve or alter the performance of techniques in quantum error correction and fault tolerance. In Chapter 2, we explore the possibility of designing certain quantum gates to be extremely robust with respect to errors in their operation. This naturally leads to structured noise where certain gates can be implemented in a protected manner, allowing the user to focus their protection on the noisier unprotected operations. In Chapter 3, we examine how to tailor error-correcting codes and fault-tolerant quantum circuits in the presence of dephasing biased noise, where dephasing errors are far more common than bit-flip errors. By using an appropriately asymmetric code, we demonstrate the ability to improve the amount of error reduction and decrease the physical resources required for error correction. In Chapter 4, we analyze a variety of protocols for distilling magic states, which enable universal quantum computation, in the presence of faulty Clifford operations. Here again there is a hierarchy of noise levels, with a fixed error rate for faulty gates, and a second rate for errors in the distilled

  20. Sex bias in paediatric autoimmune disease - Not just about sex hormones?

    PubMed

    Chiaroni-Clarke, Rachel C; Munro, Jane E; Ellis, Justine A

    2016-05-01

    Autoimmune diseases affect up to 10% of the world's population, and approximately 80% of those affected are female. The majority of autoimmune diseases occur more commonly in females, although some are more frequent in males, while others show no bias by sex. The mechanisms leading to sex biased disease prevalence are not well understood. However, for adult-onset autoimmune disease, at least some of the cause is usually ascribed to sex hormones. This is because levels of sex hormones are one of the most obvious physiological differences between adult males and females, and their impact on immune system function is well recognised. While for paediatric-onset autoimmune diseases a sex bias is not as common, there are several such diseases for which one sex predominates. For example, the oligoarticular subtype of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) occurs in approximately three times more girls than boys, with a peak age of onset well before the onset of puberty, and at a time when levels of androgen and oestrogen are low and not strikingly different between the sexes. Here, we review potential explanations for autoimmune disease sex bias with a particular focus on paediatric autoimmune disease, and biological mechanisms outside of sex hormone differences. PMID:26970680

  1. From daily to sub-daily time steps - Creating a high temporal and spatial resolution climate reference data set for hydrological modeling and bias-correction of RCM data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul R.; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. It builds on the conjoint analysis of a large ensemble of the CRCM5, driven by 50 members of the CanESM2, and the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change on the dynamics of extreme events. A critical point in the entire project is the preparation of a meteorological reference dataset with the required temporal (1-6h) and spatial (500m) resolution to be able to better evaluate hydrological extreme events in mesoscale river basins. For Bavaria a first reference data set (daily, 1km) used for bias-correction of RCM data was created by combining raster based data (E-OBS [1], HYRAS [2], MARS [3]) and interpolated station data using the meteorological interpolation schemes of the hydrological model WaSiM [4]. Apart from the coarse temporal and spatial resolution, this mosaic of different data sources is considered rather inconsistent and hence, not applicable for modeling of hydrological extreme events. Thus, the objective is to create a dataset with hourly data of temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed, which is then used for bias-correction of the RCM data being used as driver for hydrological modeling in the river basins. Therefore, daily data is disaggregated to hourly time steps using the 'Method of fragments' approach [5], based on available training stations. The disaggregation chooses fragments of daily values from observed hourly datasets, based on similarities in magnitude and behavior of previous and subsequent events. The choice of a certain reference station (hourly data, provision of fragments) for disaggregating daily station data (application

  2. Directed compact percolation near a damp wall with biased growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lonsdale, H.; Owczarek, A. L.

    2012-11-01

    The model of directed compact percolation near a damp wall is generalized to allow for a bias in the growth of a cluster, either towards or away from the wall. The percolation probability for clusters beginning with seed width m, any distance from the wall, is derived exactly by solving the associated recurrences. It is found that the general biased case near a damp wall leads to a critical exponent β = 1, in line with the dry biased case, which differs from the unbiased damp/dry exponent β = 2.

  3. Assessment of issues for the MAST divertor biasing experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helander, P.; Cohen, R. H.; Fielding, S.; Ryutov, D.

    2001-10-01

    A biasing experiment is being undertaken in the MAST scrape-off layer; the goal is to induce intense convection by a toroidally alternating biasing of divertor tiles. This would lead to a thickening of the SOL and a reduction of the heat load on the divertor plates. In addition, by studying the reaction of a plasma to a varying bias, one can collect new information regarding pre-existing SOL turbulence. We consider the following issues: 1. The bias amplitude required to produce significant SOL broadening; 2. Excitation of shear-flow turbulence in convective cells; 3. The role of magnetic shear; 4. Effects of electrostatic sheaths at the divertor plates; 5. Redistribution of heat fluxes during biasing. We show that a significant effect of the biasing on the SOL structure can be reached at relatively small bias voltages 30 V. We also show that the potential perturbations will be limited to a zone between the X-point and the biased tiles, and will be essentially decoupled from the main SOL plasma. Preliminary experimental results may be shown.

  4. Contamination effects on fixed-bias Langmuir probes

    SciTech Connect

    Steigies, C. T.; Barjatya, A.

    2012-11-15

    Langmuir probes are standard instruments for plasma density measurements on many sounding rockets. These probes can be operated in swept-bias as well as in fixed-bias modes. In swept-bias Langmuir probes, contamination effects are frequently visible as a hysteresis between consecutive up and down voltage ramps. This hysteresis, if not corrected, leads to poorly determined plasma densities and temperatures. With a properly chosen sweep function, the contamination parameters can be determined from the measurements and correct plasma parameters can then be determined. In this paper, we study the contamination effects on fixed-bias Langmuir probes, where no hysteresis type effect is seen in the data. Even though the contamination is not evident from the measurements, it does affect the plasma density fluctuation spectrum as measured by the fixed-bias Langmuir probe. We model the contamination as a simple resistor-capacitor circuit between the probe surface and the plasma. We find that measurements of small scale plasma fluctuations (meter to sub-meter scale) along a rocket trajectory are not affected, but the measured amplitude of large scale plasma density variation (tens of meters or larger) is attenuated. From the model calculations, we determine amplitude and cross-over frequency of the contamination effect on fixed-bias probes for different contamination parameters. The model results also show that a fixed bias probe operating in the ion-saturation region is affected less by contamination as compared to a fixed bias probe operating in the electron saturation region.

  5. Quantitative Bias Analysis in Regulatory Settings.

    PubMed

    Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; Cooney, Darryl; Lu, Yun; Forshee, Richard A

    2016-07-01

    Nonrandomized studies are essential in the postmarket activities of the US Food and Drug Administration, which, however, must often act on the basis of imperfect data. Systematic errors can lead to inaccurate inferences, so it is critical to develop analytic methods that quantify uncertainty and bias and ensure that these methods are implemented when needed. "Quantitative bias analysis" is an overarching term for methods that estimate quantitatively the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty associated with systematic errors influencing measures of associations. The Food and Drug Administration sponsored a collaborative project to develop tools to better quantify the uncertainties associated with postmarket surveillance studies used in regulatory decision making. We have described the rationale, progress, and future directions of this project. PMID:27196652

  6. Is there gender bias in nursing research?

    PubMed

    Polit, Denise F; Beck, Cheryl Tatano

    2008-10-01

    Using data from a consecutive sample of 259 studies published in four leading nursing research journals in 2005-2006, we examined whether nurse researchers favor females as study participants. On average, 75.3% of study participants were female, and 38% of studies had all-female samples. The bias favoring female participants was statistically significant and persistent. The bias was observed regardless of funding source, methodological features, and other participant and researcher characteristics, with one exception: studies that had male investigators had more sex-balanced samples. When designing studies, nurse researchers need to pay close attention to who will benefit from their research and to whether they are leaving out a specific group about which there is a gap in knowledge. PMID:18324681

  7. Cognitive biases in dermatology training.

    PubMed

    Shokeen, Divya

    2016-07-01

    Cognitive biases are patterns that physicians develop based on predetermined judgments that can influence their decisions regarding patient care. Unfortunately, they are usually encountered on a daily basis in clinics. A few examples include affective, anchoring, availability, confirmation, zebra, and Sutton's biases. PMID:27529715

  8. Tunable electronic properties of silicon nanowires under strain and electric bias

    SciTech Connect

    Nduwimana, Alexis; Wang, Xiao-Qian

    2014-07-15

    The electronic structure characteristics of silicon nanowires under strain and electric bias are studied using first-principles density functional theory. The unique wire-like structure leads to distinct spatial distribution of carriers, which can be tailored by applying tensile and compressive strains, as well as by an electric bias. Our results indicate that the combined effect of strain and electric bias leads to tunable electronic structures that can be used for piezo-electric devices.

  9. Classifying sex biased congenital anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Lubinsky, M.S.

    1997-03-31

    The reasons for sex biases in congenital anomalies that arise before structural or hormonal dimorphisms are established has long been unclear. A review of such disorders shows that patterning and tissue anomalies are female biased, and structural findings are more common in males. This suggests different gender dependent susceptibilities to developmental disturbances, with female vulnerabilities focused on early blastogenesis/determination, while males are more likely to involve later organogenesis/morphogenesis. A dual origin for some anomalies explains paradoxical reductions of sex biases with greater severity (i.e., multiple rather than single malformations), presumably as more severe events increase the involvement of an otherwise minor process with opposite biases to those of the primary mechanism. The cause for these sex differences is unknown, but early dimorphisms, such as differences in growth or presence of H-Y antigen, may be responsible. This model provides a useful rationale for understanding and classifying sex-biased congenital anomalies. 42 refs., 7 tabs.

  10. Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Towers, S.

    2014-07-01

    When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible.

  11. Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Photiadou, Christiana; van den Hurk, Bart; van Delden, Aarnout; Weerts, Albrecht

    2016-01-01

    An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin.

  12. Lead in petrol. The isotopic lead experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Facchetti, S. )

    1989-10-01

    Many studies were dedicated to the evaluation of the impact of automotive lead on the environment and to the assessment of its absorption in the human population. They can be subdivided into two groups, those based on changes of air and blood lead concentrations and those based on changes of air and blood lead isotopic compositions. According to various authors, 50-66% of the lead added to petrol is mobilized in the atmosphere, while most of the remainder adheres to the walls of the exhaust system from which it is expelled by mechanical and thermal shocks in the forms of easily sedimented particles. The fraction directly emitted by engine exhaust fumes is found in the form of fine particles, which can be transferred a long way from the emitting sources. However important the contribution of petrol lead to the total airborne lead may be, our knowledge does not permit a straightforward calculation of the percentage of petrol lead in total blood lead, which of course can also originate from other sources (e.g., industrial, natural). To evaluate this percentage in 1973, the idea of the Isotopic Lead Experiment (ILE project) was conceived to label, on a regional scale, petrol with a nonradioactive lead of an isotopic composition sufficiently different from that of background lead and sufficiently stable in time. This Account summarizes the main results obtained by the ILE project.

  13. Lead Pencils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, L. B.

    1971-01-01

    A study, undertaken to determine the lead content of paint on various pencils in the Goddard supply system, is reported. The survey found that lead content varied from .04 mg per pencil for carmine colored pencils to approximately 43 mg per pencil for yellow colored pencils. Results also show that yellow pencils had higher lead content than other colors analyzed. More detailed results are given in tabular form.

  14. The potential for social contextual and group biases in team decision-making: biases, conditions and psychological mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Jones, P E; Roelofsma, P H

    2000-08-01

    This paper provides a critical review of social contextual and group biases that are relevant to team decision-making in command and control situations. Motivated by the insufficient level of attention this area has received, the purpose of the paper is to provide an insight into the potential that these types of biases have to affect the decision-making of such teams. The biases considered are: false consensus, groupthink, group polarization and group escalation of commitment. For each bias the following four questions are addressed. What is the descriptive nature of the bias? What factors induce the bias? What psychological mechanisms underlie the bias? What is the relevance of the bias to command and control teams? The analysis suggests that these biases have a strong potential to affect team decisions. Consistent with the nature of team decision-making in command and control situations, all of the biases considered tend to be associated with those decisions that are important or novel and are promoted by time pressure and high levels of uncertainty. A concept unifying these biases is that of the shared mental model, but whereas false consensus emanates from social projection tendencies, the rest emanate from social influence factors. The authors also discuss the 'tricky' distinction between teams and groups and propose a revised definition for command and control team. Finally, the authors emphasize the need for future empirical research in this area to pay additional attention to the social side of cognition and the potential that social biases have to affect team decision-making. PMID:10975177

  15. Dynamics of biased domain walls and the devaluation mechanism

    SciTech Connect

    Avelino, P. P.; Sousa, L.; Martins, C. J. A. P.

    2008-08-15

    We study the evolution of biased domain walls in the early universe. We explicitly discuss the roles played by the surface tension and volume pressure in the evolution of the walls, and quantify their effects by looking at the collapse of spherical wall solutions. We then apply our results to a particular mechanism, known as the devaluation scenario, in which the dynamics of biased domain walls was suggested as a possible solution to the cosmological constant problem. Our results indicate that devaluation will, in general, lead to values of the cosmological constant that differ by several orders of magnitude from the observationally inferred value, {rho}{sub vac}{sup 1/4}{approx}10{sup -3} eV. We also argue that the reasons behind this are not specific to a particular realization, and are expected to persist in any scenario of this kind, except if a low-energy cutoff on the spectra of vacuum energy densities, of the order of the critical density at the present time, is postulated. This implies that any such scenario will require a fine-tuning similar to the usual one.

  16. Lifetime, mobility, and diffusion of photoexcited carriers in ligand-exchanged lead selenide nanocrystal films measured by time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Guglietta, Glenn W; Diroll, Benjamin T; Gaulding, E Ashley; Fordham, Julia L; Li, Siming; Murray, Christopher B; Baxter, Jason B

    2015-02-24

    Colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals have been used as building blocks for electronic and optoelectronic devices ranging from field-effect transistors to solar cells. Properties of the nanocrystal films depend sensitively on the choice of capping ligand to replace the insulating synthesis ligands. Thus far, ligands leading to the best performance in transistors result in poor solar cell performance, and vice versa. To gain insight into the nature of this dichotomy, we used time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy measurements to study the mobility and lifetime of PbSe nanocrystal films prepared with five common ligand-exchange reagents. Noncontact terahertz spectroscopy measurements of conductivity were corroborated by contacted van der Pauw measurements of the same samples. The films treated with different displacing ligands show more than an order of magnitude difference in the peak conductivities and a bifurcation of time dynamics. Inorganic chalcogenide ligand exchanges with sodium sulfide (Na2S) or ammonium thiocyanate (NH4SCN) show high mobilities but nearly complete decay of transient photocurrent in 1.4 ns. In contrast, ligand exchanges with 1,2-ethylenediamine (EDA), 1,2-ethanedithiol (EDT), and tetrabutylammonium iodide (TBAI) show lower mobilities but longer carrier lifetimes, resulting in longer diffusion lengths. This bifurcated behavior may explain the divergent performance of field-effect transistors and photovoltaics constructed from nanocrystal building blocks with different ligand exchanges. PMID:25644854

  17. The breadth and mnemonic consequences of the youth bias.

    PubMed

    Koppel, Jonathan; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2016-01-01

    We have recently demonstrated the existence of the youth bias, referring to a tendency to favour adolescence and early adulthood over other lifetime periods when making inferences about the timing of important public events across the lifespan of a typical individual within one's culture. The youth bias integrates two discrete lines of research, that is, the literature on the privileged status of adolescence and early adulthood in human memory and cognition, and the literature on cognitive biases. Here we first examined whether the youth bias holds for specific categories of public events (i.e., deaths of public figures, United States presidential elections, and sporting events). We then investigated the possible role of the youth bias in structuring recall for public events, by probing, within subjects, for the relation between: (1) these expectations of the timing, in a typical person's life, of the most important exemplar from each public event category, and (2) the age at which the cited event occurred on a recall question asking participants to cite the most important exemplar, in their own lifetime, from each category. We found a youth bias for each category. Additionally, responses to the youth bias question were correlated with the age at which the recalled event occurred, but only where particularly salient historical events did not play a central role in driving recall (i.e., for sporting events). We conclude that the youth bias holds across different types of public events and provides a default structure for organizing recall of public events. PMID:25993435

  18. Error covariance calculation for forecast bias estimation in hydrologic data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; De Lannoy, Gabriëlle J. M.

    2015-12-01

    To date, an outstanding issue in hydrologic data assimilation is a proper way of dealing with forecast bias. A frequently used method to bypass this problem is to rescale the observations to the model climatology. While this approach improves the variability in the modeled soil wetness and discharge, it is not designed to correct the results for any bias. Alternatively, attempts have been made towards incorporating dynamic bias estimates into the assimilation algorithm. Persistent bias models are most often used to propagate the bias estimate, where the a priori forecast bias error covariance is calculated as a constant fraction of the unbiased a priori state error covariance. The latter approach is a simplification to the explicit propagation of the bias error covariance. The objective of this paper is to examine to which extent the choice for the propagation of the bias estimate and its error covariance influence the filter performance. An Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) has been performed, in which ground water storage observations are assimilated into a biased conceptual hydrologic model. The magnitudes of the forecast bias and state error covariances are calibrated by optimizing the innovation statistics of groundwater storage. The obtained bias propagation models are found to be identical to persistent bias models. After calibration, both approaches for the estimation of the forecast bias error covariance lead to similar results, with a realistic attribution of error variances to the bias and state estimate, and significant reductions of the bias in both the estimates of groundwater storage and discharge. Overall, the results in this paper justify the use of the traditional approach for online bias estimation with a persistent bias model and a simplified forecast bias error covariance estimation.

  19. Leading Democratically

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookfield, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Democracy is the most venerated of American ideas, the one for which wars are fought and people die. So most people would probably agree that leaders should be able to lead well in a democratic society. Yet, genuinely democratic leadership is a relative rarity. Leading democratically means viewing leadership as a function or process, rather than…

  20. Nicotine Exposure during Adolescence Leads to Short- and Long-Term Changes in Spike Timing-Dependent Plasticity in Rat Prefrontal Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Goriounova, Natalia A.; Mansvelder, Huibert D.

    2013-01-01

    Adolescence is a critical period of brain development during which maturation of areas involved in cognitive functioning, such as the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), is still ongoing. Tobacco smoking during this age can compromise the normal course of prefrontal development and lead to cognitive impairments in later life. Recently, we reported that nicotine exposure during adolescence results in a short-term increase and lasting reduction in synaptic mGluR2 levels in the rat mPFC, causing attention deficits during adulthood. It is unknown how changed synaptic mGluR2 levels after adolescent nicotine exposure affect the ability of mPFC synapses to undergo long-term synaptic plasticity. Here, we addressed this question. To model nicotine exposure, adolescent (P34–P43) or adult (P60–P69) rats were treated with nicotine injections three times per day for 10 d. We found that, both during acute activation of nicotinic receptors in the adolescent mPFC as well as immediately following nicotine treatment during adolescence, long-term plasticity in response to timed presynaptic and postsynaptic activity (tLTP) was strongly reduced. In contrast, in the mPFC of adult rats 5 weeks after they received nicotine treatment during adolescence, but not during adulthood, tLTP was increased. Short-and long-term adaptation of mPFC synaptic plasticity after adolescent nicotine exposure could be explained by changed mGluR2 signaling. Blocking mGluR2s augmented tLTP, whereas activating mGluR2s reduced tLTP. Our findings suggest neuronal mechanisms by which exposure to nicotine during adolescence alters the rules for spike timing-dependent plasticity in prefrontal networks that may explain the observed deficits in cognitive performance in later life. PMID:22855798

  1. Measurement of the $B^-$ lifetime using a simulation free approach for trigger bias correction

    SciTech Connect

    Aaltonen, T.; Adelman, J.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J.; Apresyan, A.; /Purdue U. /Waseda U.

    2010-04-01

    The collection of a large number of B hadron decays to hadronic final states at the CDF II detector is possible due to the presence of a trigger that selects events based on track impact parameters. However, the nature of the selection requirements of the trigger introduces a large bias in the observed proper decay time distribution. A lifetime measurement must correct for this bias and the conventional approach has been to use a Monte Carlo simulation. The leading sources of systematic uncertainty in the conventional approach are due to differences between the data and the Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper they present an analytic method for bias correction without using simulation, thereby removing any uncertainty between data and simulation. This method is presented in the form of a measurement of the lifetime of the B{sup -} using the mode B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup -}. The B{sup -} lifetime is measured as {tau}{sub B{sup -}} = 1.663 {+-} 0.023 {+-} 0.015 ps, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. This new method results in a smaller systematic uncertainty in comparison to methods that use simulation to correct for the trigger bias.

  2. Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

    PubMed

    Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

    2016-05-01

    Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

  3. Thermal and bias cycling stabilizes planar silicon devices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, R. E.; Meinhard, J. E.

    1967-01-01

    Terminal burn-in or baking step time in the processing of planar silicon devices is extended to reduce their inversion tendencies. The collector-base junction of the device is also cyclically biased during the burn-in.

  4. A Study of Speededness as a Source of Test Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Franklin R.; Reilly, Richard R.

    1972-01-01

    Study to determine whether potential bias exists in the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) which fee-free center candidates do not complete in the time available in as large a proportion as regular center candidates. (MB)

  5. Threat bias, not negativity bias, underpins differences in political ideology.

    PubMed

    Lilienfeld, Scott O; Latzman, Robert D

    2014-06-01

    Although disparities in political ideology are rooted partly in dispositional differences, Hibbing et al.'s analysis paints with an overly broad brush. Research on the personality correlates of liberal-conservative differences points not to global differences in negativity bias, but to differences in threat bias, probably emanating from differences in fearfulness. This distinction bears implications for etiological research and persuasion efforts. PMID:24970441

  6. The roles of bias-correction and resolution in regional climate simulations of summer extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PaiMazumder, Debasish; Done, James M.

    2015-09-01

    The suitability of dynamical downscaling in producing high-resolution climate scenarios for impact assessments is limited by the quality of the driving data and regional climate model (RCM) error. Multiple RCMs driven by a single global climate model simulation of current climate show a reduction in bias compared to the driving data, and the remaining bias motivates exploration of bias correction and higher RCM resolution. The merits of bias correcting the mean climate of the driving data (boundary bias correction) versus bias correcting the mean of the RCM output data are explored and compared to model resolution sensitivity. This analysis focuses on the simulation of summer temperature and precipitation extremes using a single RCM, the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). The NRCM has a general cool bias for hot and cold extremes, a wet bias for wet extremes and a dry bias for dry extremes. Both bias corrections generally reduced the bias and overall error with some indication that boundary bias correction provided greater benefits than bias correcting the mean of the RCM output data, particularly for precipitation. High resolution tended not to lead to further improvements, though further work is needed using multiple resolution evaluation datasets and convection permitting resolution simulations to comprehensively assess the value of high resolution.

  7. Publication bias in blood and marrow transplantation.

    PubMed

    Saeed, Mahwash; Paulson, Kristjan; Lambert, P; Szwajcer, David; Seftel, Matthew

    2011-06-01

    Only a small proportion of abstracts lead to full publication. Abstracts with "positive" results are more likely to be published than other abstracts, leading to publication bias. To date, this issue has not been examined in the blood and marrow transplantation (BMT) literature. We hypothesized that because BMT centers are often based at academic centers, the proportion of abstracts leading to publication will be high. All abstracts presented at the Canadian Blood and Marrow Transplant Group biannual meetings in 2002, 2004, and 2006 were reviewed and categorized by study type, funding source, single-center or multicenter study, form of presentation, and positive or negative results, using the authors' definitions. To determine publication, each reference was searched on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CINAHL) by first, second, and final author names. Two authors performed abstract categorization and searching, and disagreements were resolved by consensus. Of the 141 abstracts reviewed, only 43 were published (30.4%). Twenty-one studies were published from 2002 (36.8%), compared with 12 from 2004 (24.0%) and 10 from 2006 (29.4%) (P = .35). Neither positive results nor the number of involved centers were associated with the likelihood of publication. Clinical studies (retrospective or prospective) were more likely to be published than nonclinical studies (P = .014). Funded studies and oral presentations were more likely to be published (P = .009 and .004, respectively). A low rate of publication is seen in the field of BMT. Studies with clinical outcomes, externally funded studies, and studies presented orally were more likely to be published. However, there was no publication bias in favor of studies with positive results. Publication bias should be evaluated further at larger BMT meetings, and efforts should be made to encourage full publication of scientific abstracts. PMID:21130176

  8. Directional Bias and Pheromone for Discovery and Coverage on Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Fink, Glenn A.; Berenhaut, Kenneth S.; Oehmen, Christopher S.

    2012-09-11

    Natural multi-agent systems often rely on “correlated random walks” (random walks that are biased toward a current heading) to distribute their agents over a space (e.g., for foraging, search, etc.). Our contribution involves creation of a new movement and pheromone model that applies the concept of heading bias in random walks to a multi-agent, digital-ants system designed for cyber-security monitoring. We examine the relative performance effects of both pheromone and heading bias on speed of discovery of a target and search-area coverage in a two-dimensional network layout. We found that heading bias was unexpectedly helpful in reducing search time and that it was more influential than pheromone for improving coverage. We conclude that while pheromone is very important for rapid discovery, heading bias can also greatly improve both performance metrics.

  9. Left face matching bias: right hemisphere dominance or scanning habits?

    PubMed

    Megreya, Ahmed M; Havard, Catriona

    2011-01-01

    A large body of work report a leftward bias in face processing. However, it is not clear whether this leftward bias purely reflects the dominance of the right hemisphere or is influenced by scanning habits developed by reading directions. Here, we report two experiments examining how well native readers of right to left Arabic scripts (Egyptians) could match (for identity) a target face that appeared with a companion to a line-up of 10 faces. There was a significant advantage for matching faces that appeared on the left. However, Experiment 2 found that the magnitude of this left face matching bias was almost three times weaker than the magnitude of the leftward bias shown by native readers of left to right English scripts (British). Accordingly, we suggest that the right hemisphere dominance for face processing underlies the leftward face perception bias, but with the interaction of scanning habits. PMID:21204307

  10. The source of the truth bias: Heuristic processing?

    PubMed

    Street, Chris N H; Masip, Jaume

    2015-06-01

    People believe others are telling the truth more often than they actually are; this is called the truth bias. Surprisingly, when a speaker is judged at multiple points across their statement the truth bias declines. Previous claims argue this is evidence of a shift from (biased) heuristic processing to (reasoned) analytical processing. In four experiments we contrast the heuristic-analytic model (HAM) with alternative accounts. In Experiment 1, the decrease in truth responding was not the result of speakers appearing more deceptive, but was instead attributable to the rater's processing style. Yet contrary to HAMs, across three experiments we found the decline in bias was not related to the amount of processing time available (Experiments 1-3) or the communication channel (Experiment 2). In Experiment 4 we found support for a new account: that the bias reflects whether raters perceive the statement to be internally consistent. PMID:25707774

  11. Cannabis dependence, cognitive control and attentional bias for cannabis words.

    PubMed

    Cousijn, J; Watson, P; Koenders, L; Vingerhoets, W A M; Goudriaan, A E; Wiers, R W

    2013-12-01

    One of the characteristics of people suffering from addictive behaviors is the tendency to be distracted by drug cues. This attentional bias for drug cues is thought to lead to increased craving and drug use, and may draw individuals into a vicious cycle of drug addiction. In the current study we developed a Dutch version of the cannabis Stroop task and measured attentional bias for cannabis words in a group of heavy cannabis users and matched controls. The classical Stroop task was used as a global measure of cognitive control and we examined the relationship between cognitive control, cannabis-related problems, cannabis craving and cannabis attentional bias. Using our version of the cannabis Stroop task, a group of heavy cannabis users showed attentional bias to cannabis words, whereas a control group of non-users did not. Furthermore, within the group of cannabis users, those who were clinically recognized as dependent showed a stronger attentional bias than the heavy, non-dependent users. Cannabis users who displayed reduced cognitive control (as measured with the classical Stroop task) showed increased session-induced craving. Contrary to expectations, however, cognitive control did not appear to modulate the relationship between attentional bias to cannabis words (cannabis Stroop task) and cannabis dependence. This study confirmed the relationship between cannabis dependence and attentional bias and extends this by highlighting a moderating role for cognitive control, which may make some more vulnerable to craving. PMID:24018225

  12. Single-Receiver GPS Phase Bias Resolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bertiger, William I.; Haines, Bruce J.; Weiss, Jan P.; Harvey, Nathaniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Existing software has been modified to yield the benefits of integer fixed double-differenced GPS-phased ambiguities when processing data from a single GPS receiver with no access to any other GPS receiver data. When the double-differenced combination of phase biases can be fixed reliably, a significant improvement in solution accuracy is obtained. This innovation uses a large global set of GPS receivers (40 to 80 receivers) to solve for the GPS satellite orbits and clocks (along with any other parameters). In this process, integer ambiguities are fixed and information on the ambiguity constraints is saved. For each GPS transmitter/receiver pair, the process saves the arc start and stop times, the wide-lane average value for the arc, the standard deviation of the wide lane, and the dual-frequency phase bias after bias fixing for the arc. The second step of the process uses the orbit and clock information, the bias information from the global solution, and only data from the single receiver to resolve double-differenced phase combinations. It is called "resolved" instead of "fixed" because constraints are introduced into the problem with a finite data weight to better account for possible errors. A receiver in orbit has much shorter continuous passes of data than a receiver fixed to the Earth. The method has parameters to account for this. In particular, differences in drifting wide-lane values must be handled differently. The first step of the process is automated, using two JPL software sets, Longarc and Gipsy-Oasis. The resulting orbit/clock and bias information files are posted on anonymous ftp for use by any licensed Gipsy-Oasis user. The second step is implemented in the Gipsy-Oasis executable, gd2p.pl, which automates the entire process, including fetching the information from anonymous ftp

  13. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts for extended-range skilful seasonal streamflow predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to also benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France in order to provide insights into the way bias correcting seasonal precipitation forecasts can contribute to maintain skill of seasonal flow predictions at extended lead times. First, we evaluate the skill of raw (i.e., without bias correction) seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for streamflow forecasting in sixteen French catchments. A lumped daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. A reference prediction system based on historic observed precipitation and watershed initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e., ESP method) is used as benchmark. In a second step, we apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the flow forecasts. The approaches were based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy, and overall performance. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, reliability is an attribute that is not significantly improved. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods showed the best performance for the studied catchments, with, however, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of forecast quality: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributed mainly to increase forecast

  14. Experimenter bias and subliminal perception

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barber, Paul J.; Rushton, J. Philippe

    1975-01-01

    It has been suggested that subliminal perception phenomena may be in part due to experimenter bias effects. Two studies that obtained positive evidence of subliminal perception were therefore replicated with experimenters tested under blind and not blind conditions. (Editor)

  15. The intentionality bias in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Peyroux, Elodie; Strickland, Brent; Tapiero, Isabelle; Franck, Nicolas

    2014-11-30

    The tendency to over-interpret events of daily life as resulting from voluntary or intentional actions is one of the key aspects of schizophrenia with persecutory delusions. Here, we ask whether this characteristic may emerge from the abnormal activity of a basic cognitive process found in healthy adults and children: the intentionality bias, which refers to the implicit and automatic inclination to interpret human actions as intentional (Rosset, 2008, Cognition 108, 771-780). In our experiment, patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls were shown sentences describing human actions in various linguistic contexts, and were asked to indicate whether the action was intentional or not. The results indicated that people with schizophrenia exhibited a striking bias to over attribute intentionality regardless of linguistic context, contrary to healthy controls who did not exhibit such a general intentionality bias. Moreover, this study provides some insight into the cognitive mechanisms underlying this bias: an inability to inhibit the automatic attribution of intentionality. PMID:25042425

  16. Toxicokinetics of bone lead.

    PubMed Central

    Rabinowitz, M B

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses bone as a source of lead to the rest of the body and as a record of past lead exposure. Bone lead levels generally increase with age at rates dependent on the skeletal site and lead exposure. After occupational exposure, the slow decline in blood lead, a 5- to 19-year half-life, reflects the long skeletal half-life. Repeated measurements of bone lead demonstrate the slow elimination of lead from bone. Stable isotope ratios have revealed many details of skeletal uptake and subsequent release. The bulk turnover rates for compact bone are about 2% per year and 8% for spine. Turnover activity varies with age and health. Even though lead approximates calcium, radium, strontium, barium, fluorine, and other bone seekers, the rates for each are different. A simple, two-pool (bone and blood) kinetic model is presented with proposed numerical values for the changes in blood lead levels that occur with changes in turnover rates. Two approaches are offered to further quantify lead turnover. One involves a study of subjects with known past exposure. Changes in the ratio of blood lead to bone lead with time would reflect the course of bone lead availability. Also, stable isotopes and subjects who move from one geographical area to another offer opportunities. Sequential isotope measurements would indicate how much of the lead in blood is from current exposure or bone stores, distinct from changes in absorption or excretion. PMID:2040248

  17. How does bias correction of RCM precipitation affect modelled runoff?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, J.; Potter, N. J.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Zhang, L.; Vaze, J.; Evans, J. P.

    2014-09-01

    Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the difference between the tested methods is small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly because of the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors remaining in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitation of RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces.

  18. Active current gating in electrically biased conical nanopores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bearden, Samuel; Simpanen, Erik; Zhang, Guigen

    2015-05-01

    We observed that the ionic current through a gold/silicon nitride (Si3N4) nanopore could be modulated and gated by electrically biasing the gold layer. Rather than employing chemical modification to alter device behavior, we achieved control of conductance directly by electrically biasing the gold portion of the nanopore. By stepping through a range of bias potentials under a constant trans-pore electric field, we observed a gating phenomenon in the trans-pore current response in a variety of solutions including potassium chloride (KCl), sodium chloride (NaCl), and potassium iodide (KI). A computational model with a conical nanopore was developed to examine the effect of the Gouy-Chapman-Stern electrical double layer along with nanopore geometry, work function potentials, and applied electrical bias on the ionic current. The numerical results indicated that the observed modulation and gating behavior was due to dynamic reorganization of the electrical double layer in response to changes in the electrical bias. Specifically, in the conducting state, the nanopore conductance (both numerical and experimental) is linearly proportional to the applied bias due to accumulation of charge in the diffuse layer. The gating effect occurs due to the asymmetric charge distribution in the fluid induced by the distribution of potentials at the nanopore surface. Time dependent changes in current due to restructuring of the electrical double layer occur when the electrostatic bias is instantaneously changed. The nanopore device demonstrates direct external control over nanopore behavior via modulation of the electrical double layer by electrostatic biasing.

  19. Inequities in the freedom to lead a flourishing and healthy life: time for a progressive social protections framework : Comment on "Inequities in the freedom to lead a flourishing and healthy life: issues for healthy public policy".

    PubMed

    Carey, Gemma

    2014-09-01

    Evidence now shows that the key drivers of poor health are social factors, such as education, employment, housing and urban environments. Variations in these social factors-or the conditions in which we live our lives-have lead to a growth in health inequalities within and between countries. One of the key challenges facing those concerned with health equity is how to effect change across the broad policy areas that impact these social. PMID:25279385

  20. Estimation and correction of model bias in the NASA/GMAO GEOS5 data assimilation system: Sequential implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Banglin; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Sippel, Jason; Ma, Zaizhong

    2016-06-01

    This study presents a simplified multivariate bias correction scheme that is sequentially implemented in the GEOS5 data assimilation system and compared against a control experiment without model bias correction. The results show considerable improvement in terms of the mean biases of rawinsonde observation-minus-background (OmB) residuals for observed water vapor, wind and temperature variables. The time series spectral analysis shows whitening of bias-corrected OmB residuals, and mean biases for rawinsonde observation-minus-analysis (OmA) are also improved. Some wind and temperature biases in the control experiment near the equatorial tropopause nearly vanish from the bias-corrected experiment. Despite the analysis improvement, the bias correction scheme has only a moderate impact on forecast skill. Significant interaction is also found among quality-control, satellite observation bias correction, and background bias correction, and the latter positively impacts satellite bias correction.

  1. Integrated Bypass Battery for ReverseBias Protection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landis, Geoffrey A,

    2002-01-01

    When a single solar cell of a series-connect string is placed in shadow, the entire array current is forced through that cell in reverse bias. Reverse bias current can lead to "hot-spot" heating, where the power produced by the unshadowed cells is dissipated as heat in the shadowed cell. Since occasional shadows are unavoidable in most applications, most solar arrays include shadow protection to prevent damage. In current practice, shadow protection is done with a "bypass diode" on each cell, to shunt the reverse bias current if a cell is shadowed. A new method of reverse bias protection is to use an Integral thin-film battery to provide voltage in the case of a shadowed cell. In this case, the shadowed cell continues to provide voltage during the transient shadow.

  2. Asymmetric Magnetization Reversal in Exchange Bias Systems*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzsimmons, Michael

    2001-03-01

    Polarized neutron reflectometry measured the in-plane projection of the net-magnetization vector of polycrystalline Fe films exchange-coupled to (110) FeF2 antiferromagnetic (AF) films of controlled crystalline quality. For the sample with the single crystal AF film, we observed perpendicular exchange coupling across the ferromagnetic (F)-AF interface on either side of the hysteresis loop at coercivity. Perpendicular exchange coupling was observed regardless of cooling field orientation parallel or perpendicular to the AF anisotropy axis. Yet, for one orientation the exchange bias was zero; thus, perpendicular exchange coupling is not a sufficient condition for exchange bias. For samples with twinned AF films, an asymmetry in the spin flip scattering on either side of the hysteresis loop, and consequently in the magnetization reversal process, was observed. The origin of the asymmetry is explained by frustration of perpendicular exchange coupling, which enhances exchange bias and leads to 45° exchange coupling across the F-AF interface. The easy axis in the ferromagnet, which gives rise to asymmetric magnetization reversal in the twinned samples, is not present in samples with (110) textured polycrystalline AF films; and consequently exchange bias is reduced. *Work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, BES-DMS under Contract No. W-7405-Eng-36, Grant No. DE-FG03-87ER-45332 and funds from the University of California Collaborative University and Laboratory Assisted Research. ÝWork in collaboration with A. Hoffmann, P. Yashar, J. Groves, R. Springer, P. Arendt (LANL), C. Leighton, K. Liu, Ivan K. Schuller (UCSD), J. Nogués (UAB), C.F. Majkrzak, J.A. Dura (NIST), H. Fritzsche (HMI), V. Leiner, H. Lauter (ILL).

  3. Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal

    2016-04-01

    A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias

  4. Eye Movements and Lexical Ambiguity Resolution: Investigating the Subordinate-Bias Effect

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sereno, Sara C.; O'Donnell, Patrick J.; Rayner, Keith

    2006-01-01

    Recent debates on lexical ambiguity resolution have centered on the subordinate-bias effect, in which reading time is longer on a biased ambiguous word in a subordinate-biasing context than on a control word. The nature of the control word--namely, whether it matched the frequency of the ambiguous word's overall word form or its contextually…

  5. Bias and design in software specifications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Straub, Pablo A.; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

    1990-01-01

    Implementation bias in a specification is an arbitrary constraint in the solution space. Presented here is a model of bias in software specifications. Bias is defined in terms of the specification process and a classification of the attributes of the software product. Our definition of bias provides insight into both the origin and the consequences of bias. It also shows that bias is relative and essentially unavoidable. Finally, we describe current work on defining a measure of bias, formalizing our model, and relating bias to software defects.

  6. Human language reveals a universal positivity bias.

    PubMed

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Clark, Eric M; Desu, Suma; Frank, Morgan R; Reagan, Andrew J; Williams, Jake Ryland; Mitchell, Lewis; Harris, Kameron Decker; Kloumann, Isabel M; Bagrow, James P; Megerdoomian, Karine; McMahon, Matthew T; Tivnan, Brian F; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-02-24

    Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts. PMID:25675475

  7. Human language reveals a universal positivity bias

    PubMed Central

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Clark, Eric M.; Desu, Suma; Frank, Morgan R.; Reagan, Andrew J.; Williams, Jake Ryland; Mitchell, Lewis; Harris, Kameron Decker; Kloumann, Isabel M.; Bagrow, James P.; Megerdoomian, Karine; McMahon, Matthew T.; Tivnan, Brian F.; Danforth, Christopher M.

    2015-01-01

    Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts. PMID:25675475

  8. Bias and spread in EVT performance tests.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, J. G.

    1971-01-01

    Performance tests (error probability measurements) of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high reliability requirements frequently utilize classical extreme value theory (EVT) to avoid the excessive test times encountered with bit error rate (BER) tests. If the underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian, the EVT error estimates have either excessive bias or excessive variance if an insufficient number of test samples is used. EVT is examined to explain the cause of this bias and spread. Experimental verification is made by testing a known Gaussian source, and procedures that minimize these effects are described. It seems apparent that even under the best of conditions the EVT test results are not particularly better than those of BER tests.

  9. Ecotoxicology: Lead

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scheuhammer, A.M.; Beyer, W.N.; Schmitt, C.J.

    2008-01-01

    Lead (Pb) is a naturally occurring metallic element; trace concentrations are found in all environmental media and in all living things. However, certain human activities, especially base metal mining and smelting; combustion of leaded gasoline; the use of Pb in hunting, target shooting, and recreational angling; the use of Pb-based paints; and the uncontrolled disposal of Pb-containing products such as old vehicle batteries and electronic devices have resulted in increased environmental levels of Pb, and have created risks for Pb exposure and toxicity in invertebrates, fish, and wildlife in some ecosystems.

  10. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers

    PubMed Central

    Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes. PMID:26765225

  11. Blood lead--tooth lead relationship among Boston children

    SciTech Connect

    Rabinowitz, M.B.; Leviton, A.; Bellinger, D.C. )

    1989-10-01

    The amount of lead in deciduous teeth has been used extensively as a marker for infant lead exposure and body burden. Elevated tooth lead levels have been seen in children who had lead poisoning. Also, on a population wide basis tooth lead levels appear to vary according to housing status and presumably lead exposure. This exposure index has been applied using varying techniques in Denmark, and the United Kingdom. Because of the neurotoxicity of lead, the tooth lead levels of retarded and normal children have been compared. Most recently, in research of lead and child development, tooth lead levels have been used as markers of past lead exposure. Despite the widespread use of tooth lead values, very little is known about the exact time course of lead deposition in tooth from blood. This report compares blood lead levels at different ages to tooth lead levels in a group of Boston children.

  12. Effects of Low Level Lead Exposure on Associative Learning and Memory in the Rat: Influences of Sex and Developmental Timing Of Exposure

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, D.W.; Mettil, W.; Schneider, J.S.

    2016-01-01

    Lead (Pb) exposure during development impairs a variety of cognitive, behavioral and neurochemical processes resulting in deficits in learning, memory, attention, impulsivity and executive function. Numerous studies have attempted to model this effect of Pb in rodents, with the majority of studies focusing on hippocampus-associated spatial learning and memory processes. Using a different paradigm, trace fear conditioning, a process requiring coordinated integration of both the medial prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus, we have assessed the effects of Pb exposure on associative learning and memory. The present study examined both female and male Long Evans rats exposed to three environmentally relevant levels of Pb (150 ppm, 375 ppm and 750 ppm) during different developmental periods: perinatal (PERI; gestation – postnatal day 21), early postnatal (EPN; postnatal days 1–21) and late postnatal (LPN; postnatal days 1–55). Testing began at postnatal day 55 and consisted of a single day of acquisition training, and three post training time points (1, 2 and 10 days) to assess memory consolidation and recall. All animals, regardless of sex, developmental window or level of Pb-exposure, successfully acquired conditioned-unconditioned stimulus association during training. However, there were significant effects of Pb-exposure on consolidation and memory recall at days 1–10 post training. In females, EPN and LPN exposure to 150 ppm Pb (but not PERI exposure) significantly impaired recall. In contrast, only PERI 150 ppm and 750 ppm-exposed males had significant recall deficits. These data suggest a complex interaction between sex, developmental window of exposure and Pb-exposure level on consolidation and recall of associative memories. PMID:26812500

  13. Effects of low level lead exposure on associative learning and memory in the rat: Influences of sex and developmental timing of exposure.

    PubMed

    Anderson, D W; Mettil, W; Schneider, J S

    2016-03-30

    Lead (Pb) exposure during development impairs a variety of cognitive, behavioral and neurochemical processes resulting in deficits in learning, memory, attention, impulsivity and executive function. Numerous studies have attempted to model this effect of Pb in rodents, with the majority of studies focusing on hippocampus-associated spatial learning and memory processes. Using a different paradigm, trace fear conditioning, a process requiring coordinated integration of both the medial prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus, we have assessed the effects of Pb exposure on associative learning and memory. The present study examined both female and male long evans rats exposed to three environmentally relevant levels of Pb (150 ppm, 375 ppm and 750 ppm) during different developmental periods: perinatal (PERI; gestation-postnatal day 21), early postnatal (EPN; postnatal days 1-21) and late postnatal (LPN; postnatal days 1-55). Testing began at postnatal day 55 and consisted of a single day of acquisition training, and three post training time points (1, 2 and 10 days) to assess memory consolidation and recall. All animals, regardless of sex, developmental window or level of Pb-exposure, successfully acquired conditioned-unconditioned stimulus association during training. However, there were significant effects of Pb-exposure on consolidation and memory recall at days 1-10 post training. In females, EPN and LPN exposure to 150 ppm Pb (but not PERI exposure) significantly impaired recall. In contrast, only PERI 150 ppm and 750 ppm-exposed males had significant recall deficits. These data suggest a complex interaction between sex, developmental window of exposure and Pb-exposure level on consolidation and recall of associative memories. PMID:26812500

  14. Sensitivity of hydrologic simulations to bias corrected driving parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2016-04-01

    Climate model outputs feature systematic errors and biases that render them unsuitable for direct use by the impact models. To deal with this issue many bias correction techniques have been developed to adjust the modelled variables against observations. For the most common applications adjustment concerns only precipitation and temperature whilst for others all the driving parameters (including radiation, wind speed, humidity, air pressure) are bias adjusted. Bias adjusting only part of the variables required as biophysical model input could affect the physical consistency among input variables and is poorly studied. It is important to determine and quantify the effect that bias adjusting each climate variable has on the impact model's simulation and identify parameters that could be treated as raw outputs for specific model applications. In this work, the sensitivity of climate simulations to bias adjusted driving parameters is tested by conducting a series of model runs, for which the impact model JULES is forced with: i) not bias corrected input variables, ii) all bias corrected input variables, iii-viii) all input variables bias corrected except for: iii) precipitation, iv) temperature, v) radiation, vi) specific humidity, vii) air pressure and viii) wind speed. This set of runs is conducted for three climate models of different equilibrium climate sensitivity: GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and IPSL-CM5A-LR. The baseline for the comparison of the experimental runs is a JULES run forced with the WFDEI dataset, the dataset that was used as the observational dataset for adjusting biases. The comparative analysis is performed using the time period 1981-2010 and focusing on output variables of the hydrological cycle (runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture).

  15. Ferromagnetic behavior and exchange bias effect in akaganeite nanorods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadic, Marin; Milosevic, Irena; Kralj, Slavko; Saboungi, Marie-Louise; Motte, Laurence

    2015-05-01

    We report ferromagnetic-like properties and exchange bias effect in akaganeite (β-FeOOH) nanorods. They exhibit a Néel temperature TN = 259 K and ferromagnetic-like hysteresis behavior both below and above TN. An exchange bias effect is observed below TN and represents an interesting behavior for akaganeite nanorods. These results are explained on the basis of a core-shell structure in which the core has bulk akaganeite magnetic properties (i.e., antiferromagnetic ordering) while the shell exhibits a disordered spin state. Thus, the nanorods show ferromagnetic properties and an exchange bias effect at the same time, increasing their potential for use in practical applications.

  16. Biased selection within the social health insurance market in Colombia.

    PubMed

    Castano, Ramon; Zambrano, Andres

    2006-12-01

    Reducing the impact of insurance market failures with regulations such as community-rated premiums, standardized benefit packages and open enrolment, yield limited effect because they create room for selection bias. The Colombian social health insurance system started a market approach in 1993 expecting to improve performance of preexisting monopolistic insurance funds by exposing them to competition by new entrants. This paper tests the hypothesis that market failures would lead to biased selection favoring new entrants. Two household surveys are analyzed using Self-Reported Health Status and the presence of chronic conditions as prospective indicators of individual risk. Biased selection is found to take place, leading to adverse selection among incumbents, and favorable selection among new entrants. This pattern is absent in 1997 but is evident in 2003. Given that the two incumbents analyzed are public organizations, the fiscal implications of the findings in terms of government bailouts, are analyzed. PMID:16516333

  17. Tetraethyl lead

    Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Tetraethyl lead ; CASRN 78 - 00 - 2 Human health assessment information on a chemical substance is included in the IRIS database only after a comprehensive review of toxicity data , as outlined in the IRIS assessment development process . Sections I ( Health Hazard Assessments for Noncarcinogenic Ef

  18. Attentional bias in adults with cannabis use disorders

    PubMed Central

    Vujanovic, Anka A.; Wardle, Margaret C.; Liu, Shijing; Dias, Nadeeka R.; Lane, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT There has been modest examination of attentional bias in individuals with cannabis use disorders. Clinical implications of this work are directly relevant to better informing extant evidence-based treatment for substance use disorders (e.g., relapse prevention) and/or developing novel interventions. The overarching aim of this investigation was to examine a novel attentional bias task in adults with cannabis use disorders. Participants were comprised of 25 adults (8 women: M age = 31, SD = 6.8; range = 22–45) with cannabis use disorders (n = 12) and controls (n = 13) without any current (past month) psychopathology. Relative to controls, adults with cannabis use disorders had greater attentional bias scores. These differences were present only at the 125-ms probe time, where the cannabis use disorders group showed greater attentional bias to cannabis cues than the control group (adjusted p = .001, cannabis use disorders mean = 59.9, control mean = −24.8, Cohen's d-effect size for 125 ms = 1.03). The cannabis use disorders group also reported significantly greater perceived stress and post-task stress scores than the control group, but stress was not related to attentional bias. This study informs understanding of the influence of cannabis cues on visual detection and reaction time under different cue-target onset times, as attentional bias was most prevalent under time pressure to detect the probe. PMID:26566718

  19. Attentional bias in adults with cannabis use disorders.

    PubMed

    Vujanovic, Anka A; Wardle, Margaret C; Liu, Shijing; Dias, Nadeeka R; Lane, Scott D

    2016-01-01

    There has been modest examination of attentional bias in individuals with cannabis use disorders. Clinical implications of this work are directly relevant to better informing extant evidence-based treatment for substance use disorders (e.g., relapse prevention) and/or developing novel interventions. The overarching aim of this investigation was to examine a novel attentional bias task in adults with cannabis use disorders. Participants were comprised of 25 adults (8 women: M age = 31, SD = 6.8; range = 22-45) with cannabis use disorders (n = 12) and controls (n = 13) without any current (past month) psychopathology. Relative to controls, adults with cannabis use disorders had greater attentional bias scores. These differences were present only at the 125-ms probe time, where the cannabis use disorders group showed greater attentional bias to cannabis cues than the control group (adjusted p = .001, cannabis use disorders mean = 59.9, control mean = -24.8, Cohen's d-effect size for 125 ms = 1.03). The cannabis use disorders group also reported significantly greater perceived stress and post-task stress scores than the control group, but stress was not related to attentional bias. This study informs understanding of the influence of cannabis cues on visual detection and reaction time under different cue-target onset times, as attentional bias was most prevalent under time pressure to detect the probe. PMID:26566718

  20. Commissioning and Initial LHC Run-2 operation of the ATLAS minimum bias trigger scintillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, M.

    2016-07-01

    The Minimum Bias Trigger Scintillators (MBTS) are sub-detectors in ATLAS delivering the primary trigger for selecting events from low luminosity proton-proton, lead-lead and lead-proton collisions with the smallest possible bias. The MBTS have undergone a complete replacement before LHC Run-2 and several improvements have been implemented in the layout. Since 2014 the MBTS have been commissioned with cosmic rays and first LHC Run-2 beam splash events. We summarise the outcome of the commissioning.

  1. The association between negative attention biases and symptoms of depression in a community sample of adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Susannah E.; Lau, Jennifer Y.F.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is a vulnerable time for the onset of depression. Recent evidence from adult studies suggests not only that negative attention biases are correlated with symptoms of depression, but that reducing negative attention biases through training can in turn reduce symptomology. The role and plasticity of attention biases in adolescent depression, however, remains unclear. This study examines the association between symptoms of depression and attention biases, and whether such biases are modifiable, in a community sample of adolescents. We report data from 105 adolescents aged 13–17 who completed a dot-probe measure of attention bias before and after a single session of visual search-based cognitive bias modification training. This is the first study to find a significant association between negative attention biases and increased symptoms of depression in a community sample of adolescents. Contrary to expectations, we were unable to manipulate attention biases using a previously successful cognitive bias modification task. There were no significant effects of the training on positive affect and only modest effects of the training, identified in post-hoc analyses, were observed on negative affect. Our data replicate those from the adult literature, which suggest that adolescent depression is a disorder associated with negative attention biases, although we were unable to modify attention biases in our study. We identify numerous parameters of our methodology which may explain these null training effects, and which could be addressed in future cognitive bias modification studies of adolescent depression. PMID:26539335

  2. Adaptive Control in the Presence of Simultaneous Sensor Bias and Actuator Failures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joshi, Suresh M.

    2012-01-01

    The problem of simultaneously accommodating unknown sensor biases and unknown actuator failures in uncertain systems is considered in a direct model reference adaptive control (MRAC) setting for state tracking using state feedback. Sensor biases and actuator faults may be present at the outset or may occur at unknown instants of time during operation. A modified MRAC law is proposed, which combines sensor bias estimation with control gain adaptation for accommodation of sensor biases and actuator failures. This control law is shown to provide signal boundedness in the resulting system. For the case when an external asymptotically stable sensor bias estimator is available, an MRAC law is developed to accomplish asymptotic state tracking and signal boundedness. For a special case wherein biases are only present in the rate measurements and bias-free position measurements are available, an MRAC law is developed using a model-independent bias estimator, and is shown to provide asymptotic state tracking with signal boundedness.

  3. Heuristic-biased stochastic sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Bresina, J.L.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents a search technique for scheduling problems, called Heuristic-Biased Stochastic Sampling (HBSS). The underlying assumption behind the HBSS approach is that strictly adhering to a search heuristic often does not yield the best solution and, therefore, exploration off the heuristic path can prove fruitful. Within the HBSS approach, the balance between heuristic adherence and exploration can be controlled according to the confidence one has in the heuristic. By varying this balance, encoded as a bias function, the HBSS approach encompasses a family of search algorithms of which greedy search and completely random search are extreme members. We present empirical results from an application of HBSS to the realworld problem of observation scheduling. These results show that with the proper bias function, it can be easy to outperform greedy search.

  4. Pursuing Peace--"Enlisting Students in the Battle against Bias"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Elizabeth H.

    2007-01-01

    In communities all over the United States, issues of mistrust, anger, harassment, and bias often accompany the task of cultures learning to live together, and Lewiston, Maine, is no exception. Lewiston High School has recognized the potential conflict and addressed it in a forthright manner. The students have helped lead the way. This article…

  5. The Truth and Bias Model of Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Tessa V.; Kenny, David A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of…

  6. Without Bias: A Guidebook for Nondiscriminatory Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickens, Judy E., Ed.; And Others

    This guidebook discusses ways to eliminate various types of discrimination from business communications. Separately authored chapters discuss eliminating racial and ethnic bias; eliminating sexual bias; achieving communication sensitive about handicaps of disabled persons; eliminating bias from visual media; eliminating bias from meetings,…

  7. Unpacking the Evidence of Gender Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulmer, Connie L.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate gender bias in pre-service principals using the Gender-Leader Implicit Association Test. Analyses of student-learning narratives revealed how students made sense of gender bias (biased or not-biased) and how each reacted to evidence (surprised or not-surprised). Two implications were: (1) the need for…

  8. Measurement Bias Detection through Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barendse, M. T.; Oort, F. J.; Werner, C. S.; Ligtvoet, R.; Schermelleh-Engel, K.

    2012-01-01

    Measurement bias is defined as a violation of measurement invariance, which can be investigated through multigroup factor analysis (MGFA), by testing across-group differences in intercepts (uniform bias) and factor loadings (nonuniform bias). Restricted factor analysis (RFA) can also be used to detect measurement bias. To also enable nonuniform…

  9. Collection Development and the Psychology of Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The library literature addressing the role of bias in collection development emphasizes a philosophical approach. It is based on the notion that bias can be controlled by the conscious act of believing in certain values and adhering to a code of ethics. It largely ignores the psychological research on bias, which suggests that bias is a more…

  10. Biased Agonism and Biased Allosteric Modulation at the CB1 Cannabinoid Receptor.

    PubMed

    Khajehali, Elham; Malone, Daniel T; Glass, Michelle; Sexton, Patrick M; Christopoulos, Arthur; Leach, Katie

    2015-08-01

    CB1 cannabinoid receptors (CB1Rs) are attractive therapeutic targets for numerous central nervous system disorders. However, clinical application of cannabinoid ligands has been hampered owing to their adverse on-target effects. Ligand-biased signaling from, and allosteric modulation of, CB1Rs offer pharmacological approaches that may enable the development of improved CB1R drugs, through modulation of only therapeutically desirable CB1R signaling pathways. There is growing evidence that CB1Rs are subject to ligand-biased signaling and allosterism. Therefore, in the present study, we quantified ligand-biased signaling and allosteric modulation at CB1Rs. Cannabinoid agonists displayed distinct biased signaling profiles at CB1Rs. For instance, whereas 2-arachidonylglycerol and WIN55,212-2 [(R)-(+)-[2,3-dihydro-5-methyl-3-(4-morpholinylmethyl)pyrrolo[1,2,3-de]-1,4-benzoxazin-6-yl]-1-napthalenylmethanone] showed little preference for inhibition of cAMP and phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (pERK1/2), N-arachidonoylethanolamine (anandamide), methanandamide, CP55940 [2-[(1R,2R,5R)-5-hydroxy-2-(3-hydroxypropyl)cyclohexyl]-5-(2-methyloctan-2-yl)phenol], and HU-210 [11-hydroxy-Δ(8)-THC-dimethylheptyl] were biased toward cAMP inhibition. The small-molecule allosteric modulator Org27569 [5-chloro-3-ethyl-1H-indole-2-carboxylic acid [2-(4-piperidin-1-yl-phenyl)ethyl]amide] displayed biased allosteric effects by blocking cAMP inhibition mediated by all cannabinoid ligands tested, at the same time having little or no effect on ERK1/2 phosphorylation mediated by a subset of these ligands. Org27569 also displayed negative binding cooperativity with [(3)H]SR141716A [5-(4-chlorophenyl)-1-(2,4-dichloro-phenyl)-4-methyl-N-(piperidin-1-yl)-1H-pyrazole-3-carboxamide]; however, it had minimal effects on binding of cannabinoid agonists. Furthermore, we highlight the need to validate the reported allosteric effects of the endogenous ligands lipoxin A4 and

  11. Rapid recollection of foresight judgments increases hindsight bias in a memory design.

    PubMed

    Calvillo, Dustin P

    2013-05-01

    One component of hindsight bias is memory distortion. This component is measured with a memory design, in which individuals answer questions, learn the correct answers, and recall their original answers. Hindsight bias occurs when participants' recollections are closer to the correct answers than their original judgments actually were. The present study used a memory design to examine the relationship between response time in recalling original answers and the magnitude of hindsight bias. In Experiment 1, participants' response times were negatively correlated with a hindsight bias index. In Experiment 2, half of the participants were instructed to recall their original judgments quickly and the other participants were instructed to take time to recall their judgments. The hindsight bias index was greater among rapidly responding participants than among delayed responding participants. These results, in conjunction with other findings, support a separate components view of hindsight bias. The memory distortion component of hindsight bias appears to occur quickly, and unbiased responding requires time for processing. This finding relates the memory distortion component of hindsight bias to other cognitive biases, such as the belief bias in syllogistic reasoning. The relationship of this hindsight bias component to dual-process models of cognition is discussed, and several avenues for additional research are suggested. PMID:22582966

  12. The Threshold of Embedded M Collider Bias and Confounding Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelcey, Benjamin; Carlisle, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Of particular import to this study, is collider bias originating from stratification on retreatment variables forming an embedded M or bowtie structural design. That is, rather than assume an M structural design which suggests that "X" is a collider but not a confounder, the authors adopt what they consider to be a more reasonable position and…

  13. Time?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amoroso, Richard L.

    2013-09-01

    The concept of time in the `clockwork' Newtonian world was irrelevant; and has generally been ignored until recently by several generations of physicists since the implementation of quantum mechanics. We will set aside the utility of time as a property relating to physical calculations of events relating to a metrics line element or as an aspect of the transformation of a particles motion/interaction in a coordinate system or in relation to thermodynamics etc., i.e. we will discard all the usual uses of time as a concept used to circularly define physical parameters in terms of other physical parameters; concentrating instead on time as an aspect of the fundamental cosmic topology of our virtual reality especially as it inseparably relates to the nature and role of the observer in natural science.

  14. The Electrically Controlled Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, Jacob

    Controlling magnetism via voltage in the virtual absence of electric current is the key to reduce power consumption while enhancing processing speed, integration density and functionality in comparison with present-day information technology. Almost all spintronic devices rely on tailored interface magnetism. Controlling magnetism at thin-film interfaces, preferably by purely electrical means, is therefore a key challenge to better spintronics. However, there is no direct interaction between magnetization and electric fields, thus making voltage control of magnetism in general a scientific challenge. The significance of controlled interface magnetism started with the exchange-bias effect. Exchange bias is a coupling phenomenon at magnetic interfaces that manifests itself prominently in the shift of the ferromagnetic hysteresis loop along the magnetic-field axis. Various attempts on controlling exchange bias via voltage utilizing different scientific principles have been intensively studied recently. The majority of present research is emphasizing on various complex oxides. Our approach can be considered as a paradigm shift away from complex oxides. We focus on a magnetoelectric antiferromagnetic simple oxide Cr2O3. From a combination of experimental and theoretical efforts, we show that the (0001) surface of magnetoelectric Cr2O3 has a roughness-insensitive, electrically switchable magnetization. Using a ferromagnetic Pd/Co multilayer deposited on the (0001) surface of a Cr2O3 single crystal, we achieve reversible, room-temperature isothermal switching of the exchange-bias between positive and negative values by reversing the electric field while maintaining a permanent magnetic field. This is a significant scientific breakthrough providing a new route towards potentially revolutionizing information technology. In addition, a second path of electrically controlled exchange bias is introduced by exploiting the piezoelectric property of BaTiO3. An exchange-bias Co

  15. Solar array/spacecraft biasing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fitzgerald, D. J.

    1981-01-01

    Biasing techniques and their application to the control of spacecraft potential is discussed. Normally when a spacecraft is operated with ion thrusters, the spacecraft will be 10-20 volts negative of the surrounding plasma. This will affect scientific measurements and will allow ions from the charge-exchange plasma to bombard the spacecraft surfaces with a few tens of volts of energy. This condition may not be tolerable. A proper bias system is described that can bring the spacecraft to or near the potential of the surrounding plasma.

  16. Lead levels - blood

    MedlinePlus

    Blood lead levels ... A blood sample is needed. Most of the time blood is drawn from a vein located on the inside ... may be used to puncture the skin. The blood collects in a small glass tube called a ...

  17. Contamination effects on fixed-bias Langmuir probes.

    PubMed

    Steigies, C T; Barjatya, A

    2012-11-01

    Langmuir probes are standard instruments for plasma density measurements on many sounding rockets. These probes can be operated in swept-bias as well as in fixed-bias modes. In swept-bias Langmuir probes, contamination effects are frequently visible as a hysteresis between consecutive up and down voltage ramps. This hysteresis, if not corrected, leads to poorly determined plasma densities and temperatures. With a properly chosen sweep function, the contamination parameters can be determined from the measurements and correct plasma parameters can then be determined. In this paper, we study the contamination effects on fixed-bias Langmuir probes, where no hysteresis type effect is seen in the data. Even though the contamination is not evident from the measurements, it does affect the plasma density fluctuation spectrum as measured by the fixed-bias Langmuir probe. We model the contamination as a simple resistor-capacitor circuit between the probe surface and the plasma. We find that measurements of small scale plasma fluctuations (meter to sub-meter scale) along a rocket trajectory are not affected, but the measured amplitude of large scale plasma density variation (tens of meters or larger) is attenuated. From the model calculations, we determine amplitude and cross-over frequency of the contamination effect on fixed-bias probes for different contamination parameters. The model results also show that a fixed bias probe operating in the ion-saturation region is affected less by contamination as compared to a fixed bias probe operating in the electron saturation region. PMID:23206057

  18. [Biochemical parameters of blood and morpho-functional state of the liver of experimental animals by the actions of lead sulfide nanoparticles in different time study].

    PubMed

    Omel'chuk, S T; Aleksiĭchuk, V D; Sokurenko, L M

    2014-01-01

    Biochemical studies revealed that alanine aminotransferase levels changing first during short action (30 injections) of lead sulfide nanoparticles of size 10 and 30 nm, and the ionic form of a 400 nm lead while the growth of both enzymes (aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase) activity during long-term exposure (60 injections) is the same intensity. It it confirmed by the value of de Ritis coefficient, which is statistically the same as control. Morphological studies also confirm these data--degenerative changes of hepatocytes, reactive changes of the stroma and vascular responses were detected. It is shown that the severity of metabolic and morphological damages in the liver increased with prolonging the duration of lead nanoparticles intake. PMID:25286610

  19. Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

    2007-01-01

    Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent

  20. Correcting for numerator/denominator bias when assessing changing inequalities in occupational class mortality, Australia 1981 -2002.

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Gail M.; Najman, Jake M.; Clavarino, Alexandra

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Comparisons of the changing patterns of inequalities in occupational mortality provide one way to monitor the achievement of equity goals. However, previous comparisons have not corrected for numerator/denominator bias, which is a consequence of the different ways in which occupational details are recorded on death certificates and on census forms. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of this bias on mortality rates and ratios over time. METHODS: Using data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we examined the evidence for bias over the period 1981 -2002, and used imputation methods to adjust for this bias. We compared unadjusted with imputed rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers. FINDINGS: Unadjusted data indicate increasing inequality in the age-adjusted rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during 1981 -2002. Imputed data suggest that there have been modest fluctuations in the ratios of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during this time, but with evidence that inequalities have increased only in recent years and are now at historic highs. CONCLUSION: We found that imputation for missing data leads to changes in estimates of inequalities related to social class in mortality for some years but not for others. Occupational class comparisons should be imputed or otherwise adjusted for missing data on census or death certificates. PMID:16583078

  1. Modeling late entry bias in survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Matsuura, Masaaki; Eguchi, Shinto

    2005-06-01

    In a failure time analysis, we sometimes observe additional study subjects who enter during the study period. These late entries are treated as left-truncated data in the statistical literature. However, with real data, there is a substantial possibility that the delayed entries may have extremely different hazards compared to the other standard subjects. We focus on a situation in which such entry bias might arise in the analysis of survival data. The purpose of the present article is to develop an appropriate methodology for making inference about data including late entries. We construct a model that includes parameters for the effect of delayed entry bias having no specification for the distribution of entry time. We also discuss likelihood inference based on this model and derive the asymptotic behavior of estimates. A simulation study is conducted for a finite sample size in order to compare the analysis results using our method with those using the standard method, where independence between entry time and failure time is assumed. We apply this method to mortality analysis among atomic bomb survivors defined in a geographical study region. PMID:16011705

  2. Analysis of bias effects on the total ionizing dose response in a 180 nm technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhangli; Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Zhengxuan; Shao, Hua; Chen, Ming; Bi, Dawei; Ning, Bingxu; Zou, Shichang

    2011-07-01

    The effects of gamma ray irradiation on the shallow trench isolation (STI) leakage current in a 180 nm technology are investigated. The radiation response is strongly influenced by the bias modes, gate bias during irradiation, substrate bias during irradiation and operating substrate bias after irradiation. We found that the worst case occurs under the ON bias condition for the ON, OFF and PASS bias mode. A positive gate bias during irradiation significantly enhances the STI leakage current, indicating the electric field influence on the charge buildup process during radiation. Also, a negative substrate bias during irradiation enhances the STI leakage current. However a negative operating substrate bias effectively suppresses the STI leakage current, and can be used to eliminate the leakage current produced by the charge trapped in the deep STI oxide. Appropriate substrate bias should be introduced to alleviate the total ionizing dose (TID) response, and lead to acceptable threshold voltage shift and subthreshold hump effect. Depending on the simulation results, we believe that the electric field distribution in the STI oxide is the key parameter influencing bias effects on the radiation response of transistor.

  3. Physicians and implicit bias: how doctors may unwittingly perpetuate health care disparities.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Elizabeth N; Kaatz, Anna; Carnes, Molly

    2013-11-01

    Although the medical profession strives for equal treatment of all patients, disparities in health care are prevalent. Cultural stereotypes may not be consciously endorsed, but their mere existence influences how information about an individual is processed and leads to unintended biases in decision-making, so called "implicit bias". All of society is susceptible to these biases, including physicians. Research suggests that implicit bias may contribute to health care disparities by shaping physician behavior and producing differences in medical treatment along the lines of race, ethnicity, gender or other characteristics. We review the origins of implicit bias, cite research documenting the existence of implicit bias among physicians, and describe studies that demonstrate implicit bias in clinical decision-making. We then present the bias-reducing strategies of consciously taking patients' perspectives and intentionally focusing on individual patients' information apart from their social group. We conclude that the contribution of implicit bias to health care disparities could decrease if all physicians acknowledged their susceptibility to it, and deliberately practiced perspective-taking and individuation when providing patient care. We further conclude that increasing the number of African American/Black physicians could reduce the impact of implicit bias on health care disparities because they exhibit significantly less implicit race bias. PMID:23576243

  4. Combating Anti-Muslim Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shah, Nirvi

    2011-01-01

    America's 2.5 million Muslims make up less than 1% of the U.S. population, according to the Pew Research Center. Many Muslim students face discrimination and some cases have warranted investigation by the U.S. Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights. Muslim groups have reported widespread bias as well. For many Muslim…

  5. Key Words in Instruction. Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callison, Daniel

    2005-01-01

    Two challenging criteria for judging information involve bias and authority. In both cases, judgments may not be clearly possible. In both cases, there may be degrees or levels of acceptability. For students to gain experience and to demonstrate skills in making judgments, they need opportunities to consider a wide spectrum of resources under a…

  6. Stereotype Formation: Biased by Association

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le Pelley, Mike E.; Reimers, Stian J.; Calvini, Guglielmo; Spears, Russell; Beesley, Tom; Murphy, Robin A.

    2010-01-01

    We propose that biases in attitude and stereotype formation might arise as a result of learned differences in the extent to which social groups have previously been predictive of behavioral or physical properties. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrate that differences in the experienced predictiveness of groups with respect to evaluatively neutral…

  7. Observer Biases in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kite, Mary E.

    1991-01-01

    Presents three student exercises that demonstrate common perceptual errors described in social psychological literature: actor-observer effect, false consensus bias, and priming effects. Describes methods to be followed and gives terms, sentences, and a story to be used in the exercises. Suggests discussion of the bases and impact of such…

  8. Attentional bias in math anxiety.

    PubMed

    Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms. PMID:26528208

  9. Attentional bias in math anxiety

    PubMed Central

    Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms. PMID:26528208

  10. Cultural Bias in Testing ESL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cargill-Power, C.

    Although cultural content is unavoidable as a backdrop for good language testing, cultural bias in testing English as a second language presents many dangers. A picture cue calling for a correct grammatical response may evoke an incorrect answer if the pictorial content is culturally coded. The cultural background behind a test must be accurately…

  11. Comparing halo bias from abundance and clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

    2015-06-01

    We model the abundance of haloes in the ˜(3 Gpc h-1)3 volume of the MICE Grand Challenge simulation by fitting the universal mass function with an improved Jackknife error covariance estimator that matches theory predictions. We present unifying relations between different fitting models and new predictions for linear (b1) and non-linear (c2 and c3) halo clustering bias. Different mass function fits show strong variations in their performance when including the low mass range (Mh ≲ 3 × 1012 M⊙ h-1) in the analysis. Together with fits from the literature, we find an overall variation in the amplitudes of around 10 per cent in the low mass and up to 50 per cent in the high mass (galaxy cluster) range (Mh > 1014 M⊙ h-1). These variations propagate into a 10 per cent change in b1 predictions and a 50 per cent change in c2 or c3. Despite these strong variations, we find universal relations between b1 and c2 or c3 for which we provide simple fits. Excluding low-mass haloes, different models fitted with reasonable goodness in this analysis, show per cent level agreement in their b1 predictions, but are systematically 5-10 per cent lower than the bias directly measured with two-point halo-mass clustering. This result confirms previous findings derived from smaller volumes (and smaller masses). Inaccuracies in the bias predictions lead to 5-10 per cent errors in growth measurements. They also affect any halo occupation distribution fitting or (cluster) mass calibration from clustering measurements.

  12. Implicit Bias and First Name Stereotypes: What Are the Implications for Online Instruction?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conaway, Wendy; Bethune, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    The online classroom is perceived as being a non-threatening, unbiased, safe environment due to the lack of visual cues that normally trigger hidden attitudes and biases. However, it is possible that stereotypical student names often trigger implicit bias in instructors leading to group expectations that can often manifest in a variety of ways…

  13. Publication Bias in Studies of an Applied Behavior-Analytic Intervention: An Initial Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sham, Elyssa; Smith, Tristram

    2014-01-01

    Publication bias arises when studies with favorable results are more likely to be reported than are studies with null findings. If this bias occurs in studies with single-subject experimental designs (SSEDs) on applied behavior-analytic (ABA) interventions, it could lead to exaggerated estimates of intervention effects. Therefore, we conducted an…

  14. Camera Perspective Bias in Videotaped Confessions: Evidence that Visual Attention Is a Mediator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ware, Lezlee J.; Lassiter, G. Daniel; Patterson, Stephen M.; Ransom, Michael R.

    2008-01-01

    Several experiments have demonstrated a "camera perspective bias" in evaluations of videotaped confessions: videotapes with the camera focused on the suspect lead to judgments of greater voluntariness than alternative presentation formats. The present research investigated potential mediators of this bias. Using eye tracking to measure visual…

  15. Hysteresis, Stability, and Ion Migration in Lead Halide Perovskite Photovoltaics.

    PubMed

    Miyano, Kenjiro; Yanagida, Masatoshi; Tripathi, Neeti; Shirai, Yasuhiro

    2016-06-16

    Ion migration has been suspected as the origin of various irreproducible and unstable properties, most notably the hysteresis, of lead halide perovskite photovoltaic (PV) cells since the early stage of the research. Although many evidence of ionic movement have been presented both numerically and experimentally, a coherent and quantitative picture that accounts for the observed irreproducible phenomena is still lacking. At the same time, however, it has been noticed that in certain types of PV cells, the hysteresis is absent or at least within the measurement reproducibility. We have previously shown that the electronic properties of hysteresis-free cells are well represented in terms of the conventional inorganic semiconductors. The reproducibility of these measurements was confirmed typically within tens of minutes under the biasing field of -1 V to +1.5 V. In order to probe the effect of ionic motion in the hysteresis-free cells, we extended the time scale and the biasing rage in the electronic measurements, from which we conclude the following: (1) From various evidence, it appears that ion migration is inevitable. However, it does not cause detrimental effects to the PV operation. (2) We propose, based on the quantitative characterization, that the degradation is more likely due to the chemical change at the interfaces between the carrier selective layers and perovskite rather than the compositional change of the lead iodide perovskite bulk. Together, they give much hope in the use of the lead iodide perovskite in the use of actual application. PMID:27227427

  16. Sedimentation Time Measurements of Soil Particles by Light Scattering and Determination of Chromium, Lead, and Iron in Soil Samples via ICP

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Todebush, Patricia Metthe; Geiger, Franz M.

    2005-01-01

    The study of soil samples, using light scattering and Inductively Coupled Plasma spectrometry (ICP) to determine colloid sedimentation rates and the quantity of chromium, lead, and iron in the sample is described. It shows the physical and chemical behavior of solid components in soil, and how such pollutant binding colloid surfaces directly…

  17. A Smart Move in Tough Times: How SREB States Can Strengthen Adult Learning and the Work Force. Challenge to Lead Series

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lord, Joan M.; Blackmon, Trudy; Chaloux, Bruce; Weaver, Chris; Street, Sue

    2010-01-01

    This report, part of the "Challenge to Lead" education goals series, examines the impact of an undereducated work force and calls for making adult learning programs a priority across the SREB (Southern Regional Education Board) region especially during the current recession. "A Smart Move" tracks declining enrollment in adult learning programs in…

  18. Spiral biasing adaptor for use in Si drift detectors and Si drift detector arrays

    DOEpatents

    Li, Zheng; Chen, Wei

    2016-07-05

    A drift detector array, preferably a silicon drift detector (SDD) array, that uses a low current biasing adaptor is disclosed. The biasing adaptor is customizable for any desired geometry of the drift detector single cell with minimum drift time of carriers. The biasing adaptor has spiral shaped ion-implants that generate the desired voltage profile. The biasing adaptor can be processed on the same wafer as the drift detector array and only one biasing adaptor chip/side is needed for one drift detector array to generate the voltage profiles on the front side and back side of the detector array.

  19. Perceptual bias, more than age, impacts on eye movements during face processing.

    PubMed

    Williams, Louise R; Grealy, Madeleine A; Kelly, Steve W; Henderson, Iona; Butler, Stephen H

    2016-02-01

    Consistent with the right hemispheric dominance for face processing, a left perceptual bias (LPB) is typically demonstrated by younger adults viewing faces and a left eye movement bias has also been revealed. Hemispheric asymmetry is predicted to reduce with age and older adults have demonstrated a weaker LPB, particularly when viewing time is restricted. What is currently unclear is whether age also weakens the left eye movement bias. Additionally, a right perceptual bias (RPB) for facial judgments has less frequently been demonstrated, but whether this is accompanied by a right eye movement bias has not been investigated. To address these issues older and younger adults' eye movements and gender judgments of chimeric faces were recorded in two time conditions. Age did not significantly weaken the LPB or eye movement bias; both groups looked initially to the left side of the face and made more fixations when the gender judgment was based on the left side. A positive association was found between LPB and initial saccades in the freeview condition and with all eye movements (initial saccades, number and duration of fixations) when time was restricted. The accompanying eye movement bias revealed by LPB participants contrasted with RPB participants who demonstrated no eye movement bias in either time condition. Consequently, increased age is not clearly associated with weakened perceptual and eye movement biases. Instead an eye movement bias accompanies an LPB (particularly under restricted viewing time conditions) but not an RPB. PMID:26799983

  20. Causes, consequences, and kin bias of human group fissions.

    PubMed

    Walker, Robert S; Hill, Kim R

    2014-12-01

    Fissions of human communities are monumental occasions with consequences for cultural and genetic variation and divergence through time by means of serial founder effects. An ethnographic review shows that most human group fissions are fueled primarily by internal political conflict and secondarily by resource scarcity. As found for other social animals, human fissions lead to subgroups that have higher levels of relatedness as compared with the original community because of kin-biased assortment known as the lineal effect. Fission processes that increase the average relatedness of subgroups are important because relatedness governs how strongly kin/group selection favors social behaviors such as warfare, peacekeeping, and other forms of collection action. However, random individual assortment is not an appropriate null model for evaluating lineage assortment because nuclear families and extended households are expected to remain together, which in and of itself forces higher relatedness in smaller subgroups. We develop a lineage assortment index where low values represent subgroups with coefficients of relatedness near those expected if nuclear and extended households had chosen to associate into random groupings. Two fissions of Ache villages (Paraguay) are examples of this type of fission with a low lineage assortment index not significantly different from zero as evaluated with controlled simulations. On the other extreme, a lineage assortment index near unity represents a lineal fission that maximizes the relatedness of subgroups such as the perfect split of a lineage into sublineages. A fission of Piaroa (Venezuela) fits this scenario. While previous discussions of fission have emphasized similarities among human studies and even other social mammals, we highlight the full range of potential kin bias in the formation of new communities. PMID:25056829

  1. Flow of active suspensions and biased swimming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafai, Salima; Peyla, Philippe; Garcia, Xabel; Kitenbergs, Guntars; Garcia, Michaël; LIPhy Team

    2012-11-01

    It is a challenge to understand the hydrodynamics associated with individual or collective motion of microswimmers through their fluid-mediated interactions in order for instance to manipulate the cells efficiently for some applications purposes. The motion of these micro-organisms can be often affected by the presence of gradients leading to a biased random walk (chemotaxis in the presence of chemicals, gyrotaxis in a gravity field, phototaxis under light exposure). In this study, we present our experimental results concerning the coupling of a Poiseuille flow with the biased random walk of Chlamydomonas Reinhardtii, a green unicellular micro-alga. This is done by illuminating the microswimmer suspension while flowing in a microchannel device. We show that one can obtain a spontaneous and reversible migration and separation of the microalgae suspension from the rest of the suspending medium under illumination and then dynamically control the concentration of the suspension with light. We present a simple model that accounts for the observed phenomenon. We thank the ANR MOSICOB and MICMACSWIM.

  2. Estimation of GPS instrumental biases from small scale network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Guanyi; Gao, Wei; Li, Jinghua; Chen, Yanhong; Shen, Hua

    2014-09-01

    With 4 GPS receivers located in the equatorial anomaly region in southeast China, this paper proposes a grid-based algorithm to determine the GPS satellites and receivers biases, and at the same time to derive the total electron content (TEC) with time resolution of 15 min and spatial resolution of 1° by 3.5° in latitude and longitude. By assuming that the TEC is identical at any point within a given grid block and the biases do not vary within a day, the algorithm arranges unknown biases and TECs with slant path TEC from the 4 receivers’ observations into a set of equations. Then the instrumental biases and the TECs are determined by using the least squares fitting technique. The performance of the method is examined by applying it to the GPS receiver chain observations selected from 16 geomagnetically quiet days in four seasons of 2006. It is found that the fitting agrees with the data very well, with goodness of fit ranging from 0.452 TECU to 1.914 TECU. Having a mean of 0.9 ns, the standard deviations for most of the GPS satellite biases are less than 1.0 ns for the 16 days. The GPS receiver biases are more stable than that of the GPS satellites. The standard deviation in the 4 receiver bias is from 0.370 ns to 0.855 ns, with a mean of 0.5 ns. Moreover, the instrumental biases are highly correlated with those derived from CODE and JPL with independent methods. The typical precision of the derived TEC is 5 TECU by a conservative estimation. These results indicate that the proposed algorithm is valid and qualified for small scale GPS network.

  3. Assessing expected accuracy of probe vehicle travel time reports

    SciTech Connect

    Hellinga, B.; Fu, L.

    1999-12-01

    The use of probe vehicles to provide estimates of link travel times has been suggested as a means of obtaining travel times within signalized networks for use in advanced travel information systems. Past research in the literature has proved contradictory conclusions regarding the expected accuracy of these probe-based estimates, and consequently has estimated different levels of market penetration of probe vehicles required to sustain accurate data within an advanced traveler information system. This paper examines the effect of sampling bias on the accuracy of the probe estimates. An analytical expression is derived on the basis of queuing theory to prove that bias in arrival time distributions and/or in the proportion of probes associated with each link departure turning movement will lead to a systematic bias in the sample estimate of the mean delay. Subsequently, the potential for and impact of sampling bias on a signalized link is examined by simulating an arterial corridor. The analytical derivation and the simulation analysis show that the reliability of probe-based average link travel times is highly affected by sampling bias. Furthermore, this analysis shows that the contradictory conclusions of previous research are directly related to the presence of absence of sample bias.

  4. Temporal changes in bias of body mass index scores based on self-reported height and weight

    PubMed Central

    Stommel, M; Osier, N

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate temporal changes in the bias associated with self-reported (as opposed to measured) body mass index (BMI) and explore the relationship of such bias to changing social attitudes towards obesity. Methods: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey covering two time periods, 1988–1994 and 2005–2008, discrepancy scores between self-reported vs measured BMI were generated. Changes in the sensitivity of BMI categories based on self-reports were examined for six weight groups, both for the US adult population as a whole and major demographic groups. Linear regression models were used to examine temporal changes in average bias, as well as attitudes about weight within each weight category and by demographic group. Results: Between 2005–2008 and 1988–1994, the bias towards underestimation of a person's BMI based on interview responses has declined among obese individuals, a trend evident in virtually all demographic subgroups explored. Conversely, most demographic groups showed little change in the extent of bias among underweight and normal-weight individuals. Although the 2005–2008 survey respondents underestimated their measured BMI more than the 1988–1994 respondents, this shift can be entirely explained by the increased prevalence of obesity in more recent years. In fact, obese individuals in 2005–2008 were less likely to overreport their height and underreport their weight than their counterparts in the 1988–1994. Evidence from responses to questions about ideal weight and desire to lose weight point in the direction of a shift in social attitudes, which may make it easier to ‘admit' to greater weight in surveys. Conclusion: Over the past 20 years, the bias in self-reported height and weight has declined leading to more accurate BMI categorizations based on self-report. This change is likely to affect efforts to find correction factors to adjust BMI scores based on self-reported height and weight

  5. Sensitivity of NCEP GFS Forecast of Hurricane Sandy to Model Biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, F.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. It developed from a tropical depression on October 22 and became a Category three storm at its peak intensity on October 25. Early on October 29 Sandy became a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds and made landfall along the New Jersey seashores. While all NWP models correctly predicted that the storm will strike the New Jersey Seashore within 72 hours of its landfall, most models struggled to predict its path at longer forecast lead times. The United States GFS (Global Forecast Systems) predicted a northeast instead of northwest path from the forecast cycles before October 25 and a path biased toward the north from the cycles before October 27. This study investigates the impact of GFS biases in environmental flow and surface forcing on the predicted Sandy storm path and intensity. A set of sensitivity experiments were carried out to explore the cause of forecast biases. In particular, the sensitivity of forecasts to model resolution and different physics parameterization options were examined.

  6. Characterization of Multicrystalline Silicon Modules with System Bias Voltage Applied in Damp Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Hacke, P.; Kempe, M.; Terwilliger, K.; Glick, S.; Call, N.; Johnston, S.; Kurtz, S.

    2011-07-01

    As it is considered economically favorable to serially connect modules to build arrays with high system voltage, it is necessary to explore potential long-term degradation mechanisms the modules may incur under such electrical potential. We performed accelerated lifetime testing of multicrystalline silicon PV modules in 85 degrees C/ 85% relative humidity and 45 degrees C/ 30% relative humidity while placing the active layer in either positive or negative 600 V bias with respect to the grounded module frame. Negative bias applied to the active layer in some cases leads to more rapid and catastrophic module power degradation. This is associated with significant shunting of individual cells as indicated by electroluminescence, thermal imaging, and I-V curves. Mass spectroscopy results support ion migration as one of the causes. Electrolytic corrosion is seen occurring with the silicon nitride antireflective coating and silver gridlines, and there is ionic transport of metallization at the encapsulant interface observed with damp heat and applied bias. Leakage current and module degradation is found to be highly dependent upon the module construction, with factors such as encapsulant and front glass resistivity affecting performance. Measured leakage currents range from about the same seen in published reports of modules deployed in Florida (USA) and is accelerated to up to 100 times higher in the environmental chamber testing.

  7. Potential unsatisfiability of cyclic constraints on stochastic biological networks biases selection towards hierarchical architectures

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Cameron; Pechuan, Ximo; Puzio, Raymond S.; Biro, Daniel; Bergman, Aviv

    2015-01-01

    Constraints placed upon the phenotypes of organisms result from their interactions with the environment. Over evolutionary time scales, these constraints feed back onto smaller molecular subnetworks comprising the organism. The evolution of biological networks is studied by considering a network of a few nodes embedded in a larger context. Taking into account this fact that any network under study is actually embedded in a larger context, we define network architecture, not on the basis of physical interactions alone, but rather as a specification of the manner in which constraints are placed upon the states of its nodes. We show that such network architectures possessing cycles in their topology, in contrast to those that do not, may be subjected to unsatisfiable constraints. This may be a significant factor leading to selection biased against those network architectures where such inconsistent constraints are more likely to arise. We proceed to quantify the likelihood of inconsistency arising as a function of network architecture finding that, in the absence of sampling bias over the space of possible constraints and for a given network size, networks with a larger number of cycles are more likely to have unsatisfiable constraints placed upon them. Our results identify a constraint that, at least in isolation, would contribute to a bias in the evolutionary process towards more hierarchical -modular versus completely connected network architectures. Together, these results highlight the context dependence of the functionality of biological networks. PMID:26040595

  8. Intergroup relationships do not reduce racial bias in empathic neural responses to pain.

    PubMed

    Contreras-Huerta, Luis Sebastian; Hielscher, Emily; Sherwell, Chase S; Rens, Natalie; Cunnington, Ross

    2014-11-01

    Perceiving the pain of others activates similar neural structures to those involved in the direct experience of pain, including sensory and affective-motivational areas. Empathic responses can be modulated by race, such that stronger neural activation is elicited by the perception of pain in people of the same race compared with another race. In the present study, we aimed to identify when racial bias occurs in the time course of neural empathic responses to pain. We also investigated whether group affiliation could modulate the race effect. Using the minimal group paradigm, we assigned participants to one of two mixed-race teams. We examined event-related potentials from participants when viewing members of their own and the other team receiving painful or non-painful touch. We identified a significant racial bias in early ERP components at N1 over frontal electrodes, where Painful stimuli elicited a greater negative shift relative to Non-Painful stimuli in response to own race faces only. A long latency empathic response was also found at P3, where there was significant differentiation between Painful and Non-Painful stimuli regardless of Race or Group. There was no evidence that empathy-related brain activity was modulated by minimal group manipulation. These results support a model of empathy for pain that consists of early, automatic bias towards own-race empathic responses and a later top-down cognitive evaluation that does not differentiate between races and may ultimately lead to unbiased behaviour. PMID:25281885

  9. Laser using lead chloride vapor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, C. J.

    1975-01-01

    By applying electric discharge, lead chloride vapor in tube is dissociated into lead and chlorine atoms. Population inversion of lead atoms is attained subsequently by second discharge, before chemical recombination of lead and chlorine has occurred. Optimum time interval between two discharges is required for maximum laser output.

  10. Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias.

    PubMed

    McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%-rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs. PMID:26901834

  11. Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias

    PubMed Central

    McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%—rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs. PMID:26901834

  12. Economic inequality is linked to biased self-perception.

    PubMed

    Loughnan, Steve; Kuppens, Peter; Allik, Jüri; Balazs, Katalin; de Lemus, Soledad; Dumont, Kitty; Gargurevich, Rafael; Hidegkuti, Istvan; Leidner, Bernhard; Matos, Lennia; Park, Joonha; Realo, Anu; Shi, Junqi; Sojo, Victor Eduardo; Tong, Yuk-Yue; Vaes, Jeroen; Verduyn, Philippe; Yeung, Victoria; Haslam, Nick

    2011-10-01

    People's self-perception biases often lead them to see themselves as better than the average person (a phenomenon known as self-enhancement). This bias varies across cultures, and variations are typically explained using cultural variables, such as individualism versus collectivism. We propose that socioeconomic differences among societies--specifically, relative levels of economic inequality--play an important but unrecognized role in how people evaluate themselves. Evidence for self-enhancement was found in 15 diverse nations, but the magnitude of the bias varied. Greater self-enhancement was found in societies with more income inequality, and income inequality predicted cross-cultural differences in self-enhancement better than did individualism/collectivism. These results indicate that macrosocial differences in the distribution of economic goods are linked to microsocial processes of perceiving the self. PMID:21948855

  13. Social Categorization on Perception Bias in the Practice of Microteaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Lu, Chow-Chin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

    2016-01-01

    Microteaching has gained considerable attention for its effectiveness in rapid and contextual training in professional development programs. However, the interpretive quality of the teaching demonstration and peer feedback may influence individuals' attribution and self-correction, leading to ineffective learning. In this study, a microteaching workshop in a professional development program for 78 elementary school science teachers was investigated. The results showed that the effectiveness of microteaching was negatively affected by participants' perception bias due to social categorization. Moreover, it was indicated that the participants' perception of the in-group and out-group, classified by the degree of the individuals' science knowledge, fostered social categorization. Participants tended to experience perception conflicts caused by their inability to see personal faults, and a typical perception bias of "seeing one's own strengths and seeing others' shortcomings" was more frequently recognized in the out-group. These results converge to highlight the importance of social categorization in perception bias relevant to microteaching.

  14. Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

    PubMed Central

    Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O.; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

    2014-01-01

    MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases. PMID:24818607

  15. Characterizing sampling biases in the trace gas climatologies of the SPARC Data Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Hegglin, M. I.; Tegtmeier, S.; Anderson, J.; Añel, J. A.; Bourassa, A.; Brohede, S.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Fuller, R.; Funke, B.; Gille, J.; Jones, A.; Kasai, Y.; Krüger, K.; Kyrölä, E.; Neu, J. L.; Rozanov, A.; Smith, L.; Urban, J.; Clarmann, T.; Walker, K. A.; Wang, R. H. J.

    2013-10-01

    zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric measurements from satellite instruments can have biases due to the nonuniform sampling of the atmosphere by the instruments. We characterize potential sampling biases in stratospheric trace gas climatologies of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative using chemical fields from a chemistry climate model simulation and sampling patterns from 16 satellite-borne instruments. The exercise is performed for the long-lived stratospheric trace gases O3 and H2O. Monthly sampling biases for O3 exceed 10% for many instruments in the high-latitude stratosphere and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, while annual mean sampling biases reach values of up to 20% in the same regions for some instruments. Sampling biases for H2O are generally smaller than for O3, although still notable in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The most important mechanism leading to monthly sampling bias is nonuniform temporal sampling, i.e., the fact that for many instruments, monthly means are produced from measurements which span less than the full month in question. Similarly, annual mean sampling biases are well explained by nonuniformity in the month-to-month sampling by different instruments. Nonuniform sampling in latitude and longitude are shown to also lead to nonnegligible sampling biases, which are most relevant for climatologies which are otherwise free of biases due to nonuniform temporal sampling.

  16. Recent developments in biased agonism

    PubMed Central

    Wisler, James W.; Xiao, Kunhong; Thomsen, Alex R.B.; Lefkowitz, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    The classic paradigm of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) activation was based on the understanding that agonist binding to a receptor induces or stabilizes a conformational change to an “active” conformation. In the past decade, however, it has been appreciated that ligands can induce distinct “active” receptor conformations with unique downstream functional signaling profiles. Building on the initial recognition of the existence of such “biased ligands”, recent years have witnessed significant developments in several areas of GPCR biology. These include increased understanding of structural and biophysical mechanisms underlying biased agonism, improvements in characterization and quantification of ligand efficacy, as well as clinical development of these novel ligands. Here we review recent major developments in these areas over the past several years. PMID:24680426

  17. Misleading Bias-Driven Expectations in Referential Processing and the Facilitative Role of Contrastive Accent.

    PubMed

    Itzhak, Inbal; Baum, Shari R

    2015-10-01

    Probabilistic preferences are often facilitative in language processing and may assist in discourse prediction. However, occasionally these sources of information may lead to inaccurate expectations. The current study investigated a test case of this scenario. An eye-tracking experiment examined the interpretation of ambiguous personal pronouns in the context of implicit causality biases. We tested whether reference resolution may be facilitated online by contrastive accent in cases of a bias-inconsistent referent. Implicit causality biases directed looks to the biased noun phrase; however, when the name of the bias-inconsistent antecedent was accented (e.g., JOHN envied Bill because he ...), this tendency was modulated. Contrastive accent seems to dampen the occasionally confusing prediction of implicit causality biases in referential processing. This demonstrates one way in which the spoken language comprehension system copes with occasional misguidance of otherwise helpful probabilistic information. PMID:25015025

  18. Lead poisoning in wild birds from southern Spain: a comparative study of wetland areas and species affected, and trends over time.

    PubMed

    Mateo, R; Green, A J; Lefranc, H; Baos, R; Figuerola, J

    2007-01-01

    We studied lead (Pb) shot contamination in sediments from the Guadalquivir marshes and six other closed-basin lagoons in Southern Spain that are of major importance for threatened species of waterbirds. Shot densities were relatively low in Doñana, ranging from 0 to 25 shot/m(2) in the top 10 cm of sediments. The density at Medina lagoon (Ramsar site) was 148 shot/m(2), making it the most contaminated wetland known in Europe. Densities in the other five lagoons ranged from 9 to 59 shot/m(2). We studied the prevalence of ingested Pb shot in waterbirds from Doñana and found a lower prevalence in ducks than previously recorded in other Spanish wetlands. Lead shot were also found embedded in tissues of some waterbirds, proving that protected species such as the greater flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) and the glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) are subjected to illegal hunting. The prevalence of embedded shot for geese was especially high (44% for trapped birds). Lead shot were detected in 2.8% of the pellets of the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) which usually preys on geese. We found that the prevalence of ingested Pb shot in geese and in Spanish imperial eagles has significantly decreased in recent years, possibly due to restrictions on hunting activity, efforts to remove shot from a sand dune used by geese to obtain grit, and to the high rainfall in Doñana during the last years that permitted waterfowl to stay more within the protected areas. PMID:16483652

  19. Significant biases affecting abundance determinations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wesson, Roger

    2015-08-01

    I have developed two highly efficient codes to automate analyses of emission line nebulae. The tools place particular emphasis on the propagation of uncertainties. The first tool, ALFA, uses a genetic algorithm to rapidly optimise the parameters of gaussian fits to line profiles. It can fit emission line spectra of arbitrary resolution, wavelength range and depth, with no user input at all. It is well suited to highly multiplexed spectroscopy such as that now being carried out with instruments such as MUSE at the VLT. The second tool, NEAT, carries out a full analysis of emission line fluxes, robustly propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique.Using these tools, I have found that considerable biases can be introduced into abundance determinations if the uncertainty distribution of emission lines is not well characterised. For weak lines, normally distributed uncertainties are generally assumed, though it is incorrect to do so, and significant biases can result. I discuss observational evidence of these biases. The two new codes contain routines to correctly characterise the probability distributions, giving more reliable results in analyses of emission line nebulae.

  20. Editorial Bias in Crowd-Sourced Political Information

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The Internet has dramatically expanded citizens’ access to and ability to engage with political information. On many websites, any user can contribute and edit “crowd-sourced” information about important political figures. One of the most prominent examples of crowd-sourced information on the Internet is Wikipedia, a free and open encyclopedia created and edited entirely by users, and one of the world’s most accessed websites. While previous studies of crowd-sourced information platforms have found them to be accurate, few have considered biases in what kinds of information are included. We report the results of four randomized field experiments that sought to explore what biases exist in the political articles of this collaborative website. By randomly assigning factually true but either positive or negative and cited or uncited information to the Wikipedia pages of U.S. senators, we uncover substantial evidence of an editorial bias toward positivity on Wikipedia: Negative facts are 36% more likely to be removed by Wikipedia editors than positive facts within 12 hours and 29% more likely within 3 days. Although citations substantially increase an edit’s survival time, the editorial bias toward positivity is not eliminated by inclusion of a citation. We replicate this study on the Wikipedia pages of deceased as well as recently retired but living senators and find no evidence of an editorial bias in either. Our results demonstrate that crowd-sourced information is subject to an editorial bias that favors the politically active. PMID:26331611

  1. Editorial Bias in Crowd-Sourced Political Information.

    PubMed

    Kalla, Joshua L; Aronow, Peter M

    2015-01-01

    The Internet has dramatically expanded citizens' access to and ability to engage with political information. On many websites, any user can contribute and edit "crowd-sourced" information about important political figures. One of the most prominent examples of crowd-sourced information on the Internet is Wikipedia, a free and open encyclopedia created and edited entirely by users, and one of the world's most accessed websites. While previous studies of crowd-sourced information platforms have found them to be accurate, few have considered biases in what kinds of information are included. We report the results of four randomized field experiments that sought to explore what biases exist in the political articles of this collaborative website. By randomly assigning factually true but either positive or negative and cited or uncited information to the Wikipedia pages of U.S. senators, we uncover substantial evidence of an editorial bias toward positivity on Wikipedia: Negative facts are 36% more likely to be removed by Wikipedia editors than positive facts within 12 hours and 29% more likely within 3 days. Although citations substantially increase an edit's survival time, the editorial bias toward positivity is not eliminated by inclusion of a citation. We replicate this study on the Wikipedia pages of deceased as well as recently retired but living senators and find no evidence of an editorial bias in either. Our results demonstrate that crowd-sourced information is subject to an editorial bias that favors the politically active. PMID:26331611

  2. Shape measurement biases from underfitting and ellipticity gradients

    SciTech Connect

    Bernstein, Gary M.

    2010-08-21

    With this study, precision weak gravitational lensing experiments require measurements of galaxy shapes accurate to <1 part in 1000. We investigate measurement biases, noted by Voigt and Bridle (2009) and Melchior et al. (2009), that are common to shape measurement methodologies that rely upon fitting elliptical-isophote galaxy models to observed data. The first bias arises when the true galaxy shapes do not match the models being fit. We show that this "underfitting bias" is due, at root, to these methods' attempts to use information at high spatial frequencies that has been destroyed by the convolution with the point-spread function (PSF) and/or by sampling. We propose a new shape-measurement technique that is explicitly confined to observable regions of k-space. A second bias arises for galaxies whose ellipticity varies with radius. For most shape-measurement methods, such galaxies are subject to "ellipticity gradient bias". We show how to reduce such biases by factors of 20–100 within the new shape-measurement method. The resulting shear estimator has multiplicative errors < 1 part in 103 for high-S/N images, even for highly asymmetric galaxies. Without any training or recalibration, the new method obtains Q = 3000 in the GREAT08 Challenge of blind shear reconstruction on low-noise galaxies, several times better than any previous method.

  3. Shape measurement biases from underfitting and ellipticity gradients

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Bernstein, Gary M.

    2010-08-21

    With this study, precision weak gravitational lensing experiments require measurements of galaxy shapes accurate to <1 part in 1000. We investigate measurement biases, noted by Voigt and Bridle (2009) and Melchior et al. (2009), that are common to shape measurement methodologies that rely upon fitting elliptical-isophote galaxy models to observed data. The first bias arises when the true galaxy shapes do not match the models being fit. We show that this "underfitting bias" is due, at root, to these methods' attempts to use information at high spatial frequencies that has been destroyed by the convolution with the point-spread function (PSF)more » and/or by sampling. We propose a new shape-measurement technique that is explicitly confined to observable regions of k-space. A second bias arises for galaxies whose ellipticity varies with radius. For most shape-measurement methods, such galaxies are subject to "ellipticity gradient bias". We show how to reduce such biases by factors of 20–100 within the new shape-measurement method. The resulting shear estimator has multiplicative errors < 1 part in 103 for high-S/N images, even for highly asymmetric galaxies. Without any training or recalibration, the new method obtains Q = 3000 in the GREAT08 Challenge of blind shear reconstruction on low-noise galaxies, several times better than any previous method.« less

  4. School physical activity interventions: do not forget about obesity bias.

    PubMed

    Rukavina, P B; Li, W

    2008-01-01

    Obesity bias is the tendency to negatively judge an overweight or obese individual based on assumed and/or false character traits, such as being physically unattractive, incompetent, lazy and lacking self-discipline. Obesity biases, such as teasing or weight criticism during physical activity (PA), can be psychologically or emotionally damaging for overweight children and adolescents. Ultimately, the effects students experience over time may create a psychological barrier and students can become resistant to schools' health and PA interventions that promote lifestyle changes. Fortunately, the psychological effects of obesity bias are mediated by social buffers and coping mechanisms. Several PA-related researchers have proposed strategic intervention components, but no studies have been completed in PA settings. The purpose of this review was to discuss the nature and different types of obesity bias in PA settings. Major theoretical frameworks of the aetiology and change mechanisms of obesity biases from the psychological literature were reviewed and direct applications for strategic component interventions were made for PA settings. Because of the pervasiveness and entrenchment of obesity bias, it is obvious that multiple theoretical frameworks need to be considered and even combined to create safe and caring school PA environments for students. PMID:18154603

  5. Bias and learning in temporal binding: intervals between actions and outcomes are compressed by prior bias.

    PubMed

    Cravo, Andre M; Haddad, Hamilton; Claessens, Peter M E; Baldo, Marcus V C

    2013-12-01

    It has consistently been shown that agents judge the intervals between their actions and outcomes as compressed in time, an effect named intentional binding. In the present work, we investigated whether this effect is result of prior bias volunteers have about the timing of the consequences of their actions, or if it is due to learning that occurs during the experimental session. Volunteers made temporal estimates of the interval between their action and target onset (Action conditions), or between two events (No-Action conditions). Our results show that temporal estimates become shorter throughout each experimental block in both conditions. Moreover, we found that observers judged intervals between action and outcomes as shorter even in very early trials of each block. To quantify the decrease of temporal judgments in experimental blocks, exponential functions were fitted to participants' temporal judgments. The fitted parameters suggest that observers had different prior biases as to intervals between events in which action was involved. These findings suggest that prior bias might play a more important role in this effect than calibration-type learning processes. PMID:24016785

  6. Movement speed is biased by prior experience

    PubMed Central

    Yousif, Nada; Greenwood, Richard; Rothwell, John C.; Diedrichsen, Jörn

    2013-01-01

    How does the motor system choose the speed for any given movement? Many current models assume a process that finds the optimal balance between the costs of moving fast and the rewards of achieving the goal. Here, we show that such models also need to take into account a prior representation of preferred movement speed, which can be changed by prolonged practice. In a time-constrained reaching task, human participants made 25-cm reaching movements within 300, 500, 700, or 900 ms. They were then trained for 3 days to execute the movement at either the slowest (900-ms) or fastest (300-ms) speed. When retested on the 4th day, movements executed under all four time constraints were biased toward the speed of the trained movement. In addition, trial-to-trial variation in speed of the trained movement was significantly reduced. These findings are indicative of a use-dependent mechanism that biases the selection of speed. Reduced speed variability was also associated with reduced errors in movement amplitude for the fast training group, which generalized nearly fully to a new movement direction. In contrast, changes in perpendicular error were specific to the trained direction. In sum, our results suggest the existence of a relatively stable but modifiable prior of preferred movement speed that influences the choice of movement speed under a range of task constraints. PMID:24133220

  7. Upper visual field distractors preferentially bias attention to the left.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Nicole A; Castine, Benjamin R; Loetscher, Tobias; Nicholls, Michael E R

    2015-03-01

    Pseudoneglect is influenced by vertical visual field stimulation, such that attentional biases are stronger for upper space distractors. Leftward biases result from right hemisphere visuospatial processing, and may be accentuated by additional right hemisphere activation during upper space distraction. Three experiments examined potential explanations for this finding. Experiment 1 controlled for perceptual grouping and leftward biases remained stronger in upper space. Experiment 2 used peripheral distractors to eliminate two further potential explanations: centre-of-mass and framing effects. Eye tracking was included to compare overt and covert attention. Findings supported the occurrence of a stronger leftward attentional bias during upper space distraction. Distractors were rarely fixated, suggesting covert attentional mechanisms are preferentially drawn toward upper space distractors. Experiment 3 employed a cueing paradigm that purposefully directed attention away from centre to determine whether pseudoneglect was influenced by overt attentional orienting. Results indicated that when attention was overtly directed away from centre, the strength of pseudoneglect did not differ based on visual field. It is concluded that covert attention toward upper space distractors recruits additional right hemisphere activation, leading existing leftward biases to be accentuated. PMID:25437374

  8. 'He's got his father's bias': Parental influence on weight bias in young children.

    PubMed

    Spiel, Emma C; Rodgers, Rachel F; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H; Damiano, Stephanie R; Gregg, Karen J; McLean, Siân A

    2016-06-01

    Our aim was to explore the role of parents in the transmission of stereotypical body size attitudes and awareness of weight loss strategies to preschool children. Participants were 279 3-year-old children and their parents, who provided data at baseline and 1 year later. Parents completed self-report body size attitude and dieting measures. Child weight bias and awareness of weight loss strategies were assessed through interview. Over time, negative associations with large bodies and awareness of weight loss strategies increased. Fathers' attitudes prospectively predicted boys' weight bias and awareness of weight loss strategies. Among girls, parental attitudes were less predictive. Findings confirm the importance of fathers in the development of boys' body attitudes and inform prevention programmes. PMID:26666696

  9. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  10. The Nonverbal Transmission of Intergroup Bias: A Model of Bias Contagion with Implications for Social Policy

    PubMed Central

    Weisbuch, Max; Pauker, Kristin

    2013-01-01

    Social and policy interventions over the last half-century have achieved laudable reductions in blatant discrimination. Yet members of devalued social groups continue to face subtle discrimination. In this article, we argue that decades of anti-discrimination interventions have failed to eliminate intergroup bias because such bias is contagious. We present a model of bias contagion in which intergroup bias is subtly communicated through nonverbal behavior. Exposure to such nonverbal bias “infects” observers with intergroup bias. The model we present details two means by which nonverbal bias can be expressed—either as a veridical index of intergroup bias or as a symptom of worry about appearing biased. Exposure to this nonverbal bias can increase perceivers’ own intergroup biases through processes of implicit learning, informational influence, and normative influence. We identify critical moderators that may interfere with these processes and consequently propose several social and educational interventions based on these moderators. PMID:23997812

  11. Lead toxicity: a review

    PubMed Central

    Ara, Anjum; Usmani, Jawed Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Lead toxicity is an important environmental disease and its effects on the human body are devastating. There is almost no function in the human body which is not affected by lead toxicity. Though in countries like US and Canada the use of lead has been controlled up to a certain extent, it is still used vehemently in the developing countries. This is primarily because lead bears unique physical and chemical properties that make it suitable for a large number of applications for which humans have exploited its benefits from historical times and thus it has become a common environmental pollutant. Lead is highly persistent in the environment and because of its continuous use its levels rise in almost every country, posing serious threats. This article reviews the works listed in the literature with recent updates regarding the toxicity of lead. Focus is also on toxic effects of lead on the renal, reproductive and nervous system. Finally the techniques available for treating lead toxicity are presented with some recent updates. PMID:27486361

  12. Maintenance of motility bias during cyanobacterial phototaxis.

    PubMed

    Chau, Rosanna Man Wah; Ursell, Tristan; Wang, Shuo; Huang, Kerwyn Casey; Bhaya, Devaki

    2015-04-01

    Signal transduction in bacteria is complex, ranging across scales from molecular signal detectors and effectors to cellular and community responses to stimuli. The unicellular, photosynthetic cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC6803 transduces a light stimulus into directional movement known as phototaxis. This response occurs via a biased random walk toward or away from a directional light source, which is sensed by intracellular photoreceptors and mediated by Type IV pili. It is unknown how quickly cells can respond to changes in the presence or directionality of light, or how photoreceptors affect single-cell motility behavior. In this study, we use time-lapse microscopy coupled with quantitative single-cell tracking to investigate the timescale of the cellular response to various light conditions and to characterize the contribution of the photoreceptor TaxD1 (PixJ1) to phototaxis. We first demonstrate that a community of cells exhibits both spatial and population heterogeneity in its phototactic response. We then show that individual cells respond within minutes to changes in light conditions, and that movement directionality is conferred only by the current light directionality, rather than by a long-term memory of previous conditions. Our measurements indicate that motility bias likely results from the polarization of pilus activity, yielding variable levels of movement in different directions. Experiments with a photoreceptor (taxD1) mutant suggest a supplementary role of TaxD1 in enhancing movement directionality, in addition to its previously identified role in promoting positive phototaxis. Motivated by the behavior of the taxD1 mutant, we demonstrate using a reaction-diffusion model that diffusion anisotropy is sufficient to produce the observed changes in the pattern of collective motility. Taken together, our results establish that single-cell tracking can be used to determine the factors that affect motility bias, which can then be coupled with

  13. Frequency dependence of PMN-PT ceramics under electrical bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Harold C.; McLaughlin, Elizabeth A.

    2002-07-01

    It is a well-known fact that electrostrictive materials, such as lead magnesium niobate-lead titanate (PMN-PT) ceramics, exhibit significant frequency dispersion in their small signal dielectric constant below their dielectric maximum temperature Tm. The frequency dispersion in several PMN-PT compositions will be examined in this study using two independent measurement methods: dc biased resonance and large signal quasistatic measurements conducted on NUWC Division Newport's SDECS. From these measurements, the coupling factor, piezoelectric constant and Young's modulus are compared as a function of the applied bias and frequency. Both the DC biased and SDECS measurements were performed on the same 3:1 aspect ratio samples. Finite element calculations will show that the error in determining the Young's modulus and piezoelectric constant from resonance using these samples is less than 5 percent. It will be shown that when frequency dispersion exists it remains even with the application of dc bias, and that the degree of deviation between these quantities increases the further below Tm the temperature drops. It will also be shown that, like the dielectric constant, the coupling factor, piezoelectric constant and Young's modulus in PMN-PT ceramics above Tm are non-dispersive.

  14. Outcome-Reporting Bias in Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pigott, Therese D.; Valentine, Jeffrey C.; Polanin, Joshua R.; Williams, Ryan T.; Canada, Dericka D.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome-reporting bias occurs when primary studies do not include information about all outcomes measured in a study. When studies omit findings on important measures, efforts to synthesize the research using systematic review techniques will be biased and interpretations of individual studies will be incomplete. Outcome-reporting bias has been…

  15. Using Newspapers to Study Media Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirman, Joseph M.

    1992-01-01

    Suggests that students can learn to recognize media bias by studying media reports of current events or historical topics. Describes a study unit using media coverage of the second anniversary of the Palestinian uprising against Israel. Discusses lesson objectives, planning, defining bias teaching procedures, and criteria for determining bias. (DK)

  16. Attentional Bias for Exercise-Related Images

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Tanya R.; Spence, John C.; Stolp, Sean M.

    2011-01-01

    This research examined attentional bias toward exercise-related images using a visual probe task. It was hypothesized that more-active participants would display attentional bias toward the exercise-related images. The results showed that men displayed attentional bias for the exercise images. There was a significant interaction of activity level…

  17. Begging the Question: Is Critical Thinking Biased?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alston, Kal

    1995-01-01

    Discusses whether critical thinking is biased, examining what is meant by critical thinking and bias and what the consequences are for addressing bias in different ways. The paper responds to the three previous papers in the critical thinking symposium in this issue of the journal. (SM)

  18. Assessing Gender Bias in Computer Software.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosenthal, Nina Ribak; Demetrulias, Diana Mayer

    1988-01-01

    Discusses gender bias in educational software programs and describes two studies that explored the ability of preservice and inservice teachers to detect bias in software programs. Evaluation instruments used to measure gender bias are described, and the need for instruction in equity issues is discussed. (23 references) (LRW)

  19. Culturally Biased Assumptions in Counseling Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pedersen, Paul B.

    2003-01-01

    Eight clusters of culturally biased assumptions are identified for further discussion from Leong and Ponterotto's (2003) article. The presence of cultural bias demonstrates that cultural bias is so robust and pervasive that is permeates the profession of counseling psychology, even including those articles that effectively attack cultural bias…

  20. Computers, Gender Bias, and Young Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhargava, Ambika; Kirova-Petrova, Anna; McNair, Shannan

    1999-01-01

    Discusses gender discrepancy in classroom computer access and use; suggests strategies to minimize gender biases. Argues that gender differences in computer usage are due to biased classroom practices, lack of female role models, home computer gender gaps, and scarcity of bias-free software. Maintains that increased teacher/parent awareness,…

  1. Assessment of Biases Against Latinos and African Americans Among Primary Care Providers and Community Members

    PubMed Central

    Havranek, Edward P.; Price, David W.; Hanratty, Rebecca; Fairclough, Diane L.; Farley, Tillman; Hirsh, Holen K.; Steiner, John F.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed implicit and explicit bias against both Latinos and African Americans among experienced primary care providers (PCPs) and community members (CMs) in the same geographic area. Methods. Two hundred ten PCPs and 190 CMs from 3 health care organizations in the Denver, Colorado, metropolitan area completed Implicit Association Tests and self-report measures of implicit and explicit bias, respectively. Results. With a 60% participation rate, the PCPs demonstrated substantial implicit bias against both Latinos and African Americans, but this was no different from CMs. Explicit bias was largely absent in both groups. Adjustment for background characteristics showed the PCPs had slightly weaker ethnic/racial bias than CMs. Conclusions. This research provided the first evidence of implicit bias against Latinos in health care, as well as confirming previous findings of implicit bias against African Americans. Lack of substantive differences in bias between the experienced PCPs and CMs suggested a wider societal problem. At the same time, the wide range of implicit bias suggested that bias in health care is neither uniform nor inevitable, and important lessons might be learned from providers who do not exhibit bias. PMID:23153155

  2. Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T.; Hampton, Charlotte; Salter, James

    2015-09-01

    We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing structural biases in climate models at the model development stage. We illustrate the method using an investigation of the potential to improve upon known ocean circulation biases in a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3). In particular, we use history matching to investigate whether or not the behaviour of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is known to be too strong in HadCM3, represents a structural bias that could be corrected using the model parameters. We find that it is possible to improve the ACC strength using the parameters and observe that doing this leads to more realistic representations of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres, sea surface salinities (both globally and in the North Atlantic), sea surface temperatures in the sinking regions in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic Deep Water flows, global precipitation, wind fields and sea level pressure. We then use history matching to locate a region of parameter space predicted not to contain structural biases for ACC and SSTs that is around 1 % of the original parameter space. We explore qualitative features of this space and show that certain key ocean and atmosphere parameters must be tuned carefully together in order to locate climates that satisfy our chosen metrics. Our study shows that attempts to tune climate model parameters that vary only a handful of parameters relevant to a given process at a time will not be as successful or as efficient as history matching.

  3. An alternative method for determining GPS receiver phase biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kersten, Tobias; Schön, Steffen

    2015-04-01

    Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is used in a broad variety of applications to determine very economically high precision parameters for positioning, navigation and timing. In comparison to traditional differential approaches, PPP with undifferenced phase measurements is highly attractive, since the effort on the user side can be reduced to minimum, e.g. due to an unnecessary reference station. The quality of obtained position solutions is comparable to those obtained from a differential approach. One of the most important limiting factor is the long integration time to determine (float) ambiguities. Furthermore, it is critical to consider adequately all occurring error sources. In this context, receiver phase biases are one of the limiting factors and very complex to model. At least they are highly correlated with the ambiguities during the estimation process, (Laurichesse et al. 2009). This contribution presents an alternative method to estimate carrier phase biases of different GPS/GNSS receivers and signals w.r.t. a reference receiver. Receiver phase biases are estimated on a zero baseline and in combination with a very stable and precise clock (H-Maser) using single differences. The presented method will be discussed in detail. This includes a critical look to the estimability of bias values for several GPS/GNSS receivers as well as a discussion on the stability and universality of these bias values. Finally relative phase biases are quantified and it will be discussed how GPS/GNSS observation equations have to be extended, to take these bias values correctly into account. References: Laurichesse D., Mercier F., Berthias J.P., Broca P., Cerri L. (2009): Integer ambiguity resolution on undifferenced GPS phase measurements and its application to PPP and satellite precise orbit determination, In: NAVIGATION, Journal of the Institute of Navigation, Volume 56, Number 2, pages: 135 - 149

  4. MODELING THE LARGE-SCALE BIAS OF NEUTRAL HYDROGEN

    SciTech Connect

    MarIn, Felipe A.; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Seo, Hee-Jong; Vallinotto, Alberto E-mail: gnedin@fnal.go E-mail: avalli@fnal.go

    2010-08-01

    We present new analytical estimates of the large-scale bias of neutral hydrogen (H I). We use a simple, non-parametric model which monotonically relates the total mass of a halo M{sub tot} with its H I mass M{sub HI} at zero redshift; for earlier times we assume limiting models for the {Omega}{sub HI} evolution consistent with the data presently available, as well as two main scenarios for the evolution of our M{sub HI}-M{sub tot} relation. We find that both the linear and the first nonlinear bias terms exhibit a strong evolution with redshift, regardless of the specific limiting model assumed for the H I density over time. These analytical predictions are then shown to be consistent with measurements performed on the Millennium Simulation. Additionally, we show that this strong bias evolution does not sensibly affect the measurement of the H I power spectrum.

  5. Removing the ISW-lensing bias from the local-form primordial non-Gaussianity estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jaiseung; Komatsu, Eiichiro; Rotti, Aditya E-mail: aditya@iucaa.ernet.in

    2013-04-01

    The Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect produces a secondary temperature aniso\\-tropy of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), as CMB photons travel through time-varying potentials along the line-of-sight. The main contribution comes from redshifts z∼<2, where dark energy leads to a decay of potentials. As the same photons are gravitationally lensed by these decaying potentials, there exists a high degree of correlation between the ISW effect and CMB lensing, leading to a non-zero three-point correlation (bispectrum) of the observed temperature anisotropy. This ISW-lensing bispectrum, whose shape resembles that of the so-called ''local-form'' primordial bispectrum parametrized by f{sub NL}, is known to be the largest contamination of f{sub NL}. In order to avoid a spurious detection of primordial non-Gaussianity, we need to remove the ISW-lensing bias. In this work, we investigate three debiasing methods: (I) subtraction of an expected, ensemble average of the ISW-lensing bispectrum; (II) subtraction of a measured ISW-lensing bispectrum; and (III) direct subtraction of an estimated ISW signal from an observed temperature map. One may use an estimation of the ISW map from external non-CMB data or that from the CMB data themselves. As the methods II and III are based on fewer assumptions about the nature of dark energy, they are preferred over the method I. While the methods I and II yield unbiased estimates of f{sub NL} with comparable error bars, the method III yields a biased result when the underlying primordial f{sub NL} is non-zero and the ISW map is estimated from a lensing potential reconstructed from the observed temperature map. One of the sources of the bias is a lensing reconstruction noise bias which is independent of f{sub NL} and can be calculated precisely, but other f{sub NL}-dependent terms are difficult to compute reliably. We thus conclude that the method II is the best, model-independent way to remove the ISW-lensing bias of f{sub NL

  6. Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

  7. Bias of apparent tracer ages in heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    McCallum, James L; Cook, Peter G; Simmons, Craig T; Werner, Adrian D

    2014-01-01

    The interpretation of apparent ages often assumes that a water sample is composed of a single age. In heterogeneous aquifers, apparent ages estimated with environmental tracer methods do not reflect mean water ages because of the mixing of waters from many flow paths with different ages. This is due to nonlinear variations in atmospheric concentrations of the tracer with time resulting in biases of mixed concentrations used to determine apparent ages. The bias of these methods is rarely reported and has not been systematically evaluated in heterogeneous settings. We simulate residence time distributions (RTDs) and environmental tracers CFCs, SF6 , (85) Kr, and (39) Ar in synthetic heterogeneous confined aquifers and compare apparent ages to mean ages. Heterogeneity was simulated as both K-field variance (σ(2) ) and structure. We demonstrate that an increase in heterogeneity (increase in σ(2) or structure) results in an increase in the width of the RTD. In low heterogeneity cases, widths were generally on the order of 10 years and biases generally less than 10%. In high heterogeneity cases, widths can reach 100 s of years and biases can reach up to 100%. In cases where the temporal variations of atmospheric concentration of individual tracers vary, different patterns of bias are observed for the same mean age. We show that CFC-12 and CFC-113 ages may be used to correct for the mean age if analytical errors are small. PMID:23550995

  8. Interoception and symptom reporting: disentangling accuracy and bias

    PubMed Central

    Petersen, Sibylle; Van Staeyen, Ken; Vögele, Claus; von Leupoldt, Andreas; Van den Bergh, Omer

    2015-01-01

    Anxiety and anxiety sensitivity are positively related to accuracy in the perception of bodily sensations. At the same time, research consistently reports that these traits are positively related to bias, resulting in the report of more and more intense symptoms that poorly correspond with physiological dysfunction. The aim of this study was to test the relationship of accuracy and bias in interoception. Furthermore, we tested the impact of individual differences in negative affect and symptom report in daily life on interoceptive accuracy and bias. Individuals higher in symptom report in daily life and negative affect were marginally more accurate in an interoceptive classification task in which participants were asked to identify different respiratory stimuli (inducing breathing effort) as belonging to a high or low intensity category. At the same time, bias in overestimating intensity of stimuli was significantly increased in participants higher in symptom report and negative affect, but only for more ambiguous stimuli. Results illustrate that interoceptive accuracy and bias need to be considered independently to understand their interaction with psychological factors and to disentangle (mis)perception of bodily sensations from liberal or conservative perceptual decision strategies. PMID:26089810

  9. Trauma, attentional biases, and revictimization among young adults.

    PubMed

    Reichert, Elizabeth; Segal, Caroline; Flannery-Schroeder, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with previous histories of trauma are at increased risk for subsequent victimization and the development of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety disorders. Attentional biases to threat-related stimuli are thought to impact one's ability to recognize future risk in his or her environment and may explain high rates of revictimization. Although the literature has identified three possible types of attentional biases among victims of trauma (i.e., interference, facilitation, and avoidance), findings are mixed. The current study examined attentional biases to threats among a sample of men and women with no, some, and multiple incident interpersonal and non-interpersonal trauma histories. It was hypothesized that those with multiple incident interpersonal trauma histories would demonstrate an interference effect (i.e., slower response times to threat-related words). Participants (N = 309) were 18- to 29-year-old college students. Self-report measures assessed trauma history, posttraumatic stress, and other psychological sequelae. Attentional biases were assessed using a dot probe computer task. Contrary to hypotheses, no significant differences in response times in the presence of threat-related words or neutral words were found among groups. Results suggest that multiple traumatized individuals do not exhibit attentional bias to threats compared to individuals with some or no trauma. PMID:25734365

  10. Effects of time, soil organic matter, and iron oxides on the relative retention and redistribution of lead, cadmium, and copper on soils.

    PubMed

    Diagboya, Paul N; Olu-Owolabi, Bamidele I; Adebowale, Kayode O

    2015-07-01

    In order to predict the bioavailability of toxic metals in soils undergoing degradation of organic matter (OM) and iron oxides (IOs), it is vital to understand the roles of these soil components in relation to metal retention and redistribution with time. In this present work, batch competitive sorptions of Pb(II), Cu(II), and Cd(II) were investigated between 1 and 90 days. Results showed that competition affected Cd(II) sorption more than Cu(II) and Pb(II). The sorption followed the trend Pb(II) > > Cu(II) > Cd(II), irrespective of aging, and this high preference for Pb(II) ions in soils reduced with time. Removal of OM led to reduction in distribution coefficient (K d) values of ≈33% for all cations within the first day. However, K d increased nearly 100% after 7 days and over 1000% after 90-day period. The enhanced K d values indicated that sorptions occurred on the long run on surfaces which were masked by OM. Removal of IO caused selective increases in the K d values, but this was dependent on the dominant soil constituent(s) in the absence of IO. The K d values of the IO-degraded samples nearly remained constant irrespective of aging indicating that sorptions on soil components other than the IO are nearly instantaneous while iron oxides played greater role than other constituents with time. Hence, in the soils studied, organic matter content determines the immediate relative metal retention while iron oxides determine the redistribution of metals with time. PMID:25721528

  11. Observer Bias: An Interaction of Temperament Traits with Biases in the Semantic Perception of Lexical Material

    PubMed Central

    Trofimova, Ira

    2014-01-01

    The lexical approach is a method in differential psychology that uses people's estimations of verbal descriptors of human behavior in order to derive the structure of human individuality. The validity of the assumptions of this method about the objectivity of people's estimations is rarely questioned. Meanwhile the social nature of language and the presence of emotionality biases in cognition are well-recognized in psychology. A question remains, however, as to whether such an emotionality-capacities bias is strong enough to affect semantic perception of verbal material. For the lexical approach to be valid as a method of scientific investigations, such biases should not exist in semantic perception of the verbal material that is used by this approach. This article reports on two studies investigating differences between groups contrasted by 12 temperament traits (i.e. by energetic and other capacities, as well as emotionality) in the semantic perception of very general verbal material. Both studies contrasted the groups by a variety of capacities: endurance, lability and emotionality separately in physical, social-verbal and mental aspects of activities. Hypotheses of “background emotionality” and a “projection through capacities” were supported. Non-evaluative criteria for categorization (related to complexity, organization, stability and probability of occurrence of objects) followed the polarity of evaluative criteria, and did not show independence from this polarity. Participants with stronger physical or social endurance gave significantly more positive ratings to a variety of concepts, and participants with faster physical tempo gave more positive ratings to timing-related concepts. The results suggest that people's estimations of lexical material related to human behavior have emotionality, language- and dynamical capacities-related biases and therefore are unreliable. This questions the validity of the lexical approach as a method for the objective

  12. Challenges in bias correcting climate change simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Ted; Zappa, Giuseppe; Gutierrez, Jose; Widmann, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Richter, Ingo; Soares, Pedro; Mearns, Linda

    2016-04-01

    Biases in climate model simulations - if these are directly used as input for impact models - will introduce further biases in subsequent impact simulations. In response to this issue, so-called bias correction methods have been developed to post-process climate model output. These methods are now widely used and a crucial component in the generation of high resolution climate change projections. Bias correction is conceptually similar to model output statistics, which has been successfully used for several decades in numerical weather prediction. Yet in climate science, some authors outrightly dismiss any form of bias correction. Starting from this seeming contradiction, we highlight differences between the two contexts and infer consequences and limitations for the applicability of bias correction to climate change projections. We first show that cross validation approaches successfully used to evaluate weather forecasts are fundamentally insufficient to evaluate climate change bias correction. We further demonstrate that different types of model mismatches with observations require different solutions, and some may not sensibly be mitigated. In particular we consider the influence of large-scale circulation biases, biases in the persistence of weather regimes, and regional biases caused by an insufficient representation of the flow-topography interaction. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, to post-process, and to cope with climate model biases.

  13. An improved impaction-graphite furnace system for the direct and near real-time determination of cadmium, chromium, lead and manganese in aerosols and cigarette smoke by simultaneous multielement atomic absorption spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yong-Ill; Smith, Mark V.; Indurthy, Suneetha; Deval, Anupama; Sneddon, Joseph

    1996-01-01

    The design, operating characteristics, and preliminary evaluation of an improved impaction-graphite furnace system, based on a theoretical study of particle size collected, are presented. After direct collection, the graphite furnace from the system is inserted in an atomic absorption spectrometer for analysis by simultaneous multielement atomic absorption spectrometry. This system has the potential for the direct and near real-time (few minutes) determination of metals in aerosols. The system has been preliminarily evaluated using aqueous solutions of chromium, and has then been applied to the determination of cadmium, chromium, lead, and manganese in cigarette smoke. Results show an increase ranging from almost five (lead) to sixteen (cadmium) over background levels.

  14. Distraction from emotional information reduces biased judgements.

    PubMed

    Lench, Heather C; Bench, Shane W; Davis, Elizabeth L

    2016-06-01

    Biases arising from emotional processes are some of the most robust behavioural effects in the social sciences. The goal of this investigation was to examine the extent to which the emotion regulation strategy of distraction could reduce biases in judgement known to result from emotional information. Study 1 explored lay views regarding whether distraction is an effective strategy to improve decision-making and revealed that participants did not endorse this strategy. Studies 2-5 focused on several established, robust biases that result from emotional information: loss aversion, desirability bias, risk aversion and optimistic bias. Participants were prompted to divert attention away from their feelings while making judgements, and in each study this distraction strategy resulted in reduced bias in judgement relative to control conditions. The findings provide evidence that distraction can improve choice across several situations that typically elicit robustly biased responses, even though participants are not aware of the effectiveness of this strategy. PMID:25787937

  15. Ion acceleration in a helicon source due to the self-bias effect

    SciTech Connect

    Wiebold, Matt; Sung, Yung-Ta; Scharer, John E.

    2012-05-15

    Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (p{sub n} < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon eXperiment (MadHeX). The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration greater than that predicted by ambipolar expansion, exceeding E{sub i} Almost-Equal-To 7 kT{sub e} in some cases. RF power up to 500 W at 13.56 MHz is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field, adjustable up to 1 kG. A retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measures the ion energy distribution function (IEDF) and a swept emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive (E) mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (V{sub p-p} Greater-Than-Or-Equivalent-To 140V, V{sub p-p}/V{sub p} Almost-Equal-To 150%) exist at the RF frequency and its harmonics. The more mobile electrons can easily respond to RF-timescale gradients in the plasma potential whereas the inertially constrained ions cannot, leading to an initial flux imbalance and formation of a self-bias voltage between the source and expansion chambers. In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation, while in the inductive and helicon modes the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate and RF power are investigated, with the largest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees with that predicted for RF self-bias at a wall. Rapid fluctuations in the plasma potential result in a time-dependent axial electron flux that acts to 'neutralize' the accelerated ion population

  16. Human lead metabolism: Chronic exposure, bone lead and physiological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleming, David Eric Berkeley

    Exposure to lead is associated with a variety of detrimental health effects. After ingestion or inhalation, lead may be taken up from the bloodstream and retained by bone tissue. X-ray fluorescence was used to make in vivo measurements of bone lead concentration at the tibia and calcaneus for 367 active and 14 retired lead smelter workers. Blood lead levels following a labour disruption were used in conjunction with bone lead readings to examine the endogenous release of lead from bone. Relations between bone lead and a cumulative blood lead index differed depending on time of hiring. This suggests that the transfer of lead from blood to bone has changed over time, possibly as a result of varying exposure conditions. A common polymorphism in the δ-aminolevulinate dehydratase (ALAD) enzyme may influence the distribution of lead in humans. Blood lead levels were higher for smelter workers expressing the more rare ALAD2 allele. Bone lead concentrations, however, were not significantly different. This implies that a smaller proportion of lead in blood is distributed to tissue for individuals expressing the ALAD2 allele. The O'Flaherty physiological model of lead metabolism was modified slightly and tested with input from the personal exposure histories of smelter workers. The model results were consistent with observation in tern of endogenous exposure to lead and accumulation of lead in cortical bone. Modelling the calcaneus as a trabecular bone site did not reproduce observed trends. variations in lead metabolism between different trabecular sites may therefore be significant. The model does not incorporate a genetic component, and its output did not reflect observed differences in this respect. This result provides further support for the influence of the ALAD polymorphism on lead metabolism. Experimental trials with a digital spectrometer revealed superior energy resolution and count throughput relative to the conventional X-ray fluorescence system. The associated

  17. Declustering observations to prevent computational bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, E. R.; Hill, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    Model calibration data are often clustered in time, space, or by measurement type. Clustered data can result in bias during model calibration, with preferential fitting occurring in areas of high data density at the expense of fit in areas with few data. Declustering can be accomplished using geostatistical methods or newly-developed process-based methods. Both are designed to remove computational bias resulting from redundant or correlated data. Typically, geostatistical methods are used to assign weights to spatially distributed measurements of a single type, with the assigned weight being proportional to the volume for which the measurement is deemed representative. Geostatistical methods do not easily allow for time-varying measurements or different types of measurements. In contrast, process-based declustering seamlessly accounts for different types of data, allowing the method to be easily applied to complex models and data of all different varieties. Process-based declustering is a two-step process: first, subject-matter experts scale the Jacobian matrix based on estimates of measurement and model error. This first step is followed by automated declustering that uses the dimensionless scaled sensitivities to identify observations that repeat the same information about the estimated parameters. The result is a final set of declustered observation weights for use during model calibration. A simple 2-D groundwater flow example problem is used to demonstrate and compare the two declustering methods. Results suggest that calibration of the models with structural error using process-based declustering was robust and frequently superior (in each region, average error is approximately zero, and the maximum error in each region is similar) to calibrations achieved using geostatistical declustering or using no declustering. Geostatistical declustering resulted in redundant observations having markedly dissimilar final calibration weights depending on observation

  18. Risk of bias versus quality assessment of randomised controlled trials: cross sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Ospina, Maria; Liang, Yuanyuan; Dryden, Donna M; Hooton, Nicola; Krebs Seida, Jennifer; Klassen, Terry P

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the risk of bias tool, introduced by the Cochrane Collaboration for assessing the internal validity of randomised trials, for inter-rater agreement, concurrent validity compared with the Jadad scale and Schulz approach to allocation concealment, and the relation between risk of bias and effect estimates. Design Cross sectional study. Study sample 163 trials in children. Main outcome measures Inter-rater agreement between reviewers assessing trials using the risk of bias tool (weighted κ), time to apply the risk of bias tool compared with other approaches to quality assessment (paired t test), degree of correlation for overall risk compared with overall quality scores (Kendall’s τ statistic), and magnitude of effect estimates for studies classified as being at high, unclear, or low risk of bias (metaregression). Results Inter-rater agreement on individual domains of the risk of bias tool ranged from slight (κ=0.13) to substantial (κ=0.74). The mean time to complete the risk of bias tool was significantly longer than for the Jadad scale and Schulz approach, individually or combined (8.8 minutes (SD 2.2) per study v 2.0 (SD 0.8), P<0.001). There was low correlation between risk of bias overall compared with the Jadad scores (P=0.395) and Schulz approach (P=0.064). Effect sizes differed between studies assessed as being at high or unclear risk of bias (0.52) compared with those at low risk (0.23). Conclusions Inter-rater agreement varied across domains of the risk of bias tool. Generally, agreement was poorer for those items that required more judgment. There was low correlation between assessments of overall risk of bias and two common approaches to quality assessment: the Jadad scale and Schulz approach to allocation concealment. Overall risk of bias as assessed by the risk of bias tool differentiated effect estimates, with more conservative estimates for studies at low risk. PMID:19841007

  19. Real-Time, Label-Free, All-Electrical Detection of Salmonella typhimurium Using Lead Zirconate Titanate/Gold-Coated Glass Cantilevers at any Relative Humidity

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Qing; Shih, Wan Y.; Shih, Wei-Heng

    2007-01-01

    We have examined non-insulated PZT/gold-coated glass cantilevers for real-time, label-free detection of Salmonella t. by partial dipping at any relative humidity. The PZT/gold-coated glass cantilevers were consisted of a 0.127 mm thick PZT layer about 0.8 mm long, 2 mm wide bonded to a 0.15 mm thick gold-coated glass layer with a 3.0 mm long gold-coated glass tip for detection. We showed that by placing the water level at the nodal point, about 0.8 mm from the free end of the gold-glass tip, there was a 1-hr window in which the resonance frequency was stable despite the water level change by evaporation at 20% relative humidity or higher. By dipping the cantilevers to their nodal point, we were able to do real-time, label-free detection without background resonance frequency corrections at any relative humidity. The partially dipped PZT/gold-coated glass cantilever exhibited mass detection sensitivity, Δm/Δf = −5×10−11g/Hz, and a detection concentration sensitivity, 5×103 cells/ml in 2 ml of liquid, which was about two orders of magnitude lower than that of a 5 MHz QCM. It was also about two orders of magnitude lower than the infection dosage and one order of magnitude lower that the detection limit of a commercial Raptor sensor. PMID:22872784

  20. Time-dependent segmentation of BrdU-signal leads to late detection problems in studies using BrdU as cell label or proliferation marker.

    PubMed

    Sauerzweig, Steven; Baldauf, Kathrin; Braun, Holger; Reymann, Klaus G

    2009-02-15

    Bromodeoxyuridine incorporates into DNA during mitosis. A long-term stability of the incorporated BrdU is important for the recovery of BrdU-labeled cells. For testing the stability of BrdU incorporation into DNA we pulse-labeled mesenchymal stem cells with BrdU and observed these cells in vitro over 4 weeks. During this time the BrdU-signal was permanently decreasing. Starting with cells containing evenly stained BrdU-nuclei, so-called filled cells, already 3 days after BrdU removal we detected cells containing so-called segmented and punctated BrdU-signals. The number of those labeled cells continuously increased over time. Interestingly, the loss of BrdU in the nucleus was accompanied by an increasing labeling of the cytosol. Further, we injected BrdU intraperitoneally into rats after ischemia and detected BrdU-positive cells in the hippocampus 3 and 23 days after the last BrdU injection. While after 3 days most of the BrdU-positive cells in the hippocampus displayed a filled BrdU-signal, 23 days after BrdU removal an increased number of segmented and punctated BrdU-positive nuclei was detected. The gradual degradation of the BrdU-signal was not caused by cell death. The consequence of this BrdU degradation would be an underestimation of cell proliferation and an overestimation of cell death of newly generated cells. PMID:19007815