Science.gov

Sample records for linear temperature trends

  1. Coastal ocean climatology of temperature and salinity off the Southern California Bight: Seasonal variability, climate index correlation, and linear trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sung Yong; Cornuelle, Bruce D.

    2015-11-01

    A coastal ocean climatology of temperature and salinity in the Southern California Bight is estimated from conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) and bottle sample profiles collected by historical California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) cruises (1950-2009; quarterly after 1984) off southern California and quarterly/monthly nearshore CTD surveys (within 30 km from the coast except for the surfzone; 1999-2009) off San Diego and Los Angeles. As these fields are sampled regularly in space, but not in time, conventional Fourier analysis may not be possible. The time dependent temperature and salinity fields are modeled as linear combinations of an annual cycle and its five harmonics, as well as three standard climate indices (El Niňo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)), the Scripps Pier temperature time series, and a mean and linear trend without time lags. Since several of the predictor indices are correlated, the indices are successively orthogonalized to eliminate ambiguity in the identification of the contributed variance of each component. Regression coefficients are displayed in both vertical transects and horizontal maps to evaluate (1) whether the temporal and spatial scales of the two data sets of nearshore and offshore observations are consistent and (2) how oceanic variability at a regional scale is related to variability in the nearshore waters. The data-derived climatology can be used to identify anomalous events and atypical behaviors in regional-scale oceanic variability and to provide background ocean estimates for mapping or modeling.

  2. Water vapor-weighted mean temperature and its impact on the determination of precipitable water vapor and its linear trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Kefei; Wu, Suqin; Fan, Shijie; Cheng, Yingyan

    2016-01-01

    Water vapor-weighted mean temperature, Tm, is a vital parameter for retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signal propagation. In this study, the Tm at 368 GNSS stations for 2000-2012 were calculated using three methods: (1) temperature and humidity profiles from ERA-Interim, (2) the Bevis Tm-Ts relationship, and (3) the Global Pressure and Temperature 2 wet model. Tm derived from the first method was used as a reference to assess the errors of the other two methods. Comparisons show that the relative errors of the Tm derived from these two methods are in the range of 1-3% across more than 95% of all the stations. The PWVs were calculated using the aforementioned three types of Tm and the GNSS-derived ZWD at 107 stations. Again, the PWVs calculated using Tm from the first method were used as the reference of the other two PWVs. The root-mean-square errors of these two PWVs are both in the range of 0.1-0.7 mm. The second method is recommended in real-time applications, since its performance is slightly better than the third method. In addition, the linear trends of the PWV time series from the first method were also used as the reference to evaluate the trends from the other two methods. Results show that 13% and 23% of the PWV trends from the respective second and third methods have a relative error of larger than 10%. For climate change studies, the first method, if available, is always recommended.

  3. Trends in stratospheric temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Newman, P. A.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Boville, B. A.; Chandra, S.; Fels, S.; Fleming, E.; Gelman, M.

    1989-01-01

    Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

  4. Ozone and temperature trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Fioletov, Vitali; Bishop, Lane; Godin, Sophie; Bojkov, Rumen D.; Kirchhoff, Volker; Chanin, Marie-Lise; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Chu, William

    1991-01-01

    An update of the extensive reviews of the state of knowledge of measured ozone trends published in the Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel is presented. The update contains a review of progress since these reports, including reviewing of the ozone records, in most cases through March 1991. Also included are some new, unpublished reanalyses of these records including a complete reevaluation of 29 stations located in the former Soviet Union. The major new advance in knowledge of the measured ozone trend is the existence of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAG) instruments. These confirm many of the findings, originally derived from the Dobson record, concerning northern mid-latitude changes in ozone. We now have results from several instruments, whereas the previously reported changes were dependent on the calibration of a single instrument. This update will compare the ozone records from many different instruments to determine whether or not they provide a consistent picture of the ozone change that has occurred in the atmosphere. The update also briefly considers the problem of stratospheric temperature change. As in previous reports, this problem received significantly less attention, and the report is not nearly as complete. This area needs more attention in the future.

  5. Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

  6. Temperature trends in the lower stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krizan, Peter; Kozubek, Michal

    2013-04-01

    It is well known there is a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere due to decreasing ozone concentration and increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. For the evaluating of temperature trends researchers use predominantly the monthly means. In this poster we use the values of various quantils to find the differences in their trends comparing to monthly mean in the period 1979-2008. The authors also aim is to answer the question if there is some change in negative temperature trend in the stratosphere after 1995 when the increasing of total ozone was observed. We use piecewise linear regression with the breakpoint in 1995. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 10 hPa in winter.

  7. Temperature trends in the midlatitude summer mesosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lbken, F.-J.; Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.

    2013-12-01

    We have performed trend studies in the mesosphere in the period 1961-2009 with Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis below approximately 40 km and adapts temporal variations of CO2 and O3 according to observations. Temperatures in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere vary nonuniformly with time, mainly due to the influence of O3. Here we analyze the contribution of varying concentrations of CO2 and O3 to the temperature trend in the mesosphere. It is important to distinguish between trends on pressure altitudes, zp, and geometrical altitudes, zgeo, where the latter includes the effect of shrinking due to cooling at lower heights. For the period 1961-2009, temperature trends on geometrical and pressure altitudes can differ by as much as -0.9 K/dec in the mesosphere. Temperature trends reach approximately -1.30.11 K/dec at zp60 km and -1.80.18 K/dec at zgeo70 km, respectively. CO2 is the main driver of these trends in the mesosphere, whereas O3 contributes approximately one third, both on geometrical and pressure heights. Depending on the time period chosen, linear temperature trends can vary substantially. Altitudes of pressure levels in the mesosphere decrease by up to several hundred meters. We have performed long-term runs with LIMA applying twentieth century reanalysis dating back to 1871. Again, trends are nonuniform with time. Since the late nineteenth century, temperatures in the mesosphere have dropped by approximately 5-7 K on pressure altitudes and up to 10-12 K on geometrical altitudes.

  8. Temperature trends in the mesosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lbken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe

    2013-04-01

    We have performed trend studies in the mesosphere in the period 1961-2009 with LIMA (Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere model) which is based on ECMWF below approximately 40 km and adapts temporal variations of CO2 and O3 according to observations. There is general agreement between LIMA and observations. Temperatures in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere vary non-uniformly with time, mainly due to the influence of ozone. We have therefore separated the influence of CO2(t) and O3(t) when determining trends. It is important to distinguish between trends on pressure altitudes, zp, and geometric altitudes, zgeo, where the latter includes the effect of shrinking due to cooling at lower heights. Maximum total temperature trends reach approximately -1,3 K/dec at zp ~60 km and -1.8 K/dec at zgeo ~70 km, respectively. Carbon dioxide is the main driver of these trends in the mesosphere, whereas ozone contributes approximately one third, both on geometric and pressure heights. Depending on the time period chosen, the ozone effect on trends can be significantly smaller or larger. Temperature trends on geometric and pressure altitudes can differ by as much as -0.9 K/dec in the mesosphere. The altitudes of pressure levels in the mesosphere decrease up to several hundred meters. The shift maximizes at mesopause levels where it accumulates to more than 1 km. Most of the shrinking occurs in the mesosphere and a smaller fraction (~20%) in the stratosphere. For the first time, we have performed long term runs with LIMA applying the 20th Century Reanalysis from NCEP/NCAR dating back to 1871. Again, trends are non-uniform with time. Since the late 19th century temperatures in the mesosphere have dropped by approximately 5-7 K on pressure altitudes, and up to 10-12 K on geometric altitudes. This is much more then typical trends in the troposphere and stratosphere. It is therefore justified to summarize that the mesosphere (at least in summer and at middle latitudes) reacts substantially more sensitive to climate change compared to lower altitudes.

  9. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  10. Temperature trends of Chennai City, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeganathan, Anushiya; Andimuthu, Ramachandran

    2013-02-01

    Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city in India, and it is one of India's chief industrial and economic growth centers. The temperature change in Chennai is studied in this research by analyzing the mean maximum temperature (MMaxT), mean minimum temperature (MMinT), and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1951 to 2010. Data are analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) the whole period from 1951 to 2010; (b) phase 1, 1951-1980; and (c) phase 2, 1981-2010. The trends have been evaluated by Student's t statistics and supported by Mann Kendall rank statistics. The observed change in temperature is positive, which has been clear increasing trends in MMaxT, MMinT, and MAT. MAT has increased 1.3C since the last 60 years. MMaxT has increased up to 1.6C, in which the second phase accounts for 75 % of the total change during the last 60 years. MMinT over Chennai has increased 1.0C. There is a high rise in temperature during winter season.

  11. Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aikin, A. C.; Chanin, M. L.; Nash, J.; Kendig, D. J.

    1991-01-01

    The largest atmospheric temperature changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases are expected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where enhanced infrared cooling decreases the temperature. Ten-year (1980-1990) temperature trends at 55 km and 0.4 mb, derived using data from the ground-based lidar at Haute Provence, (France), and the SSU-instrument channel 47X on several satellites, are presented. These data show temperature decreases that are as large and in some cases exceed predictions based on current models. At 44 deg N, the ground-based lidar and satellite techniques give a negative trend of -0.10 + or - 0.04 percent per year and -0.14 + or - 0.02 percent per year, respectively. Agreement between these two data sets based on different measurement techniques gives confidence in the detected trends at this latitude. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data between 45 deg S and 45 deg N indicates a maximum decline of 0.16 percent per year near 30 deg N. A minimum trend decrease of 0.07 percent per year is detected between 20 and 30 deg S. Based on NOAA satellite radiance observations, these long-term temperature changes are larger than changes at any of the other stratospheric levels below 55 km monitored during this period.

  12. Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malamud, B. D.; Turcotte, D. L.; Grimmond, C. S. B.

    2011-08-01

    Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977-2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00 LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 C yr-1. During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of -0.014 C yr-1 at 12:00 LST (noon). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 C yr-1. The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of -0.050 C yr-1 over the period 1977-2006. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas (demonstrated here by first-order radiative forcing calculations), and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.

  13. Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malamud, B. D.; Turcotte, D. L.; Grimmond, C. S. B.

    2010-09-01

    Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977-2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00, LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 C y-1. During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of -0.013 C y-1 at 12:00 (noon, LST). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 C y-1. The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of -0.050 C y-1. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas, and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.

  14. Global trends of measured surface air temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Lebedeff, Sergej

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents the results of surface air temperature measurements from available meteorological stations for the period of 1880-1985. It is shown that the network of meteorological stations is sufficient to yield reliable long-term, decadal, and interannual temperature changes for both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere, despite the fact that most stations are located on the continents. The results indicate a global warming of about 0.5-0.7 C in the past century, with warming of similar magnitude in both hemispheres. A strong warming trend between 1965 and 1980 raised the global mean temperature in 1980 and 1981 to the highest level in the period of instrumental records. Selected graphs of the temperature change in each of the eight latitude zones are included.

  15. Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record started. Also, the SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be anomalously high in 2007 when the perennial ice cover declined dramatically to its lowest extent. In the Antarctic, surface temperature trends are much more moderate with the most positive trends occurring in the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of Western Antarctica while some cooling are observed in the Antarctic Plateau and the Ross Sea. The trends in SST in the region is similar to global averages but precipitation from more evaporation may have a key role in the spatial distribution of surface temperature in the ice covered region

  16. Temperature Trends from Homogenized German Radiosonde Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantys-brahm, Margit; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    We present homogenization procedure and results for Germany's historical radiosonde records, dating back to 1950. Upper-air temperature records have been homogenized manually. The method makes use of the different RS networks existing in East and West-Germany from the 1950s until 1990. The largest temperature adjustments, up to 2.5K, apply to Freiberg sondes used in the East in the 1950s and 1960s. Adjustments for Graw H50 and M60 sondes, used in the West from the 1950s to the late 1980s, and for RKZ sondes, used in the East in the 1970s and 1980s, are also significant, 0.3 to 0.5K. Small differences between Vaisala RS80 and RS92 sondes used throughout Germany since 1990 and 2005, respectively, were not corrected for at levels from the ground to 300 hPa. Comparison of the homogenized data with other radiosonde datasets, RICH and HadAT2, and with Microwave Sounding Unit satellite data, shows generally good agreement. HadAT2 data exhibit a few suspicious spikes in the 1970s and 1980s, and some suspicious offsets up to 1K after 1995. Compared to RICH, our homogenized data show slightly different temperatures in the 1960s and 1970s. We find that the troposphere over Germany has been warming by 0.25 0.1K per decade since the early 1960s, slightly more than reported in other studies. The stratosphere has been cooling, with the trend increasing from almost no change near 230hPa (the tropopause) to -0.5 0.2K per decade near 50hPa. Trends from the homogenized data are more positive by about 0.1K per decade than for the original data, both in troposphere and stratosphere.

  17. Temperature trend-altitude relationship in China during 1963-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Danhong; Huang, Gang; Qu, Xia; Tao, Weichen; Fan, Guangzhou

    2015-10-01

    Based on daily air temperature data from 745 stations in China, the present study investigates the regional characteristics of temperature trend and the dependence of temperature changes on the altitude during the period of 1963-2012. There is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for the southwest China where a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, significant warming trend exists in highland areas such as the Northeast, Inner Mongol, and the Tibet region. Compared with other seasons, the warming trend is most pronounced in highland regions in winter. In summer, the temperature has no obvious increasing trend in north China, while the cooling trend is found in south China. The relationship between altitude and temperature trend is further investigated by dividing China into three subregions according to the altitudebelow 200, 200-2,000, and above 2,000 m. Although there is no simple linear relationship between elevation and warming trend on national scale, the temperature trend-altitude relation is different among the three regions. The temperature trend decreases with altitude below 200 m while increases from 200 to 2,000 m, and a weak positive temperature trend-altitude relation is found over 2,000 m. The strongest temperature trend-altitude relations are found in the subtropical regions, especially pronounced south of 36N in China. The magnitudes of decreases from 200 to 2,000 m are one order lower than the increases below 200 m. Low-altitude stations appear to be influenced more by anthropogenic aerosols. High-altitude stations are mostly located in flat terrain and sparsely populated region. Therefore, temperature trends change with elevations.

  18. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  19. Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

  20. Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bajat, Branislav; Blagojevi?, Dragan; Kilibarda, Milan; Lukovi?, Jelena; Toi?, Ivana

    2015-07-01

    The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.

  1. Evaluation of rainfall and temperature trends in Brunei Darussalam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is acknowledged as the world's significant environmental predicament. Rainfall and temperature have been widely studied in correlation with climate change. This paper demonstrates the result of the trend analysis of rainfall variables over the period of 1984 to 2013 and temperature variables over the period of 1979 to 2013 in Brunei Darussalam. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to analyse and detect trends for the variables. This study revealed that the observed rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend with increasing rainfall duration and decreasing intensity. The annual rainfall has increased significantly at a rate of 26.16 mm per annum. Mann-Kendall test for rainfall data reveals an increasing trend at confidence level of 95% for the annual total rainfall and confidence of level 90% for of annual maximum rainfall. The observed temperature also exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.031°C per year. Results of Mann-Kendall test for temperature data indicate a positive trend at a confidence level of 99.9% for the annual average temperature, average day time temperature, minimum day time temperature, average night time temperature and minimum night time temperature and at a confidence level of 95% for maximum night time temperature. The progressive effect of both the observed rainfall and temperature changes will contribute to greater surfaces run off and create flooding problem. Too much rainfall will threaten slope stability while dry periods of increased temperature will cause soil erosion.

  2. Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

  3. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

    PubMed

    Jiguet, Frdric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindstrm, Ake

    2010-12-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only. PMID:20554552

  4. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

    PubMed Central

    Jiguet, Frdric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindstrm, ke

    2010-01-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only. PMID:20554552

  5. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    Jiguet F; Devictor V; Ottvall R; Van Turnhout C; Van der Jeugd H; Lindstrm A

    2010-12-07

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

  6. Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

    1995-01-01

    The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

  7. Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

    2007-09-21

    Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand the manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.

  8. Trend analysis of river water temperatures in the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenzo-Gonzalez, Ma Angeles; Quilez, Dolores; Isidoro, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    Water temperature is an important factor conditioning physical, biological and chemical processes in water courses. The huge changes along the last 50 years in land and water use (dam construction, urban development, nuclear power plants (NPP), riparian alteration, irrigation development, and return of agricultural lands to forests), along with climate change, call for the study of their influence on river water temperatures. This work analyzed the trends (1973-2010) in water temperature (Tw) along the Ebro River (14 water quality stations) in North-East Spain and its main tributaries (6 water quality stations), as a first step to assess its possible relationships with land use changes, climate change, and other factors. Water temperature trends (?Tw) were estimated by two different methods: (1) multiple regression incorporating year seasonality and linear trend; and (2) non-parametric Mann-Kendall seasonal trend estimator. A cluster analysis based on principal components (performed upon the variables Tw, ?Tw, annual Tw range, lag of the Tw annual cycle, coefficient of correlation between water and air temperature (Ta), and station altitude) allowed for grouping stations with similar behaviour in Tw (along the year, seasonality, and throughout the study period, trend). Trend analysis by the regression and Mann-Kendall methods produced similar results. They showed significant (P

  9. Extraordinary long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in station and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, R. V.; Mettin, V.; Wagner, J.

    2014-12-01

    Properly evaluating temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme high or low temperatures is of key importance for assessing the potential local impacts of ongoing climatic changes and estimating possible future trends. Notably, the applicability of traditional extreme value statistics to non-stationary climate data is often restricted by the available amount of data. As a possible alternative, quantile regression techniques allow estimating temporal trends in arbitrary quantiles of the distribution of observed temperatures. Here, we report corresponding results on the long-term evolution of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures from three different sources: a homogeneous set of German station data, the E-OBS gridded data set of European temperatures since 1950, and various global reanalysis data sets. At the scale of individual meteorological stations across Germany, the obtained trends in very high and low quantiles reveal an extraordinary increase of high temperature extremes since the 1950s, which significantly exceeds the mean warming. In order to further assess the robustness of these results, we compare the trend values for linear and nonlinear (spline-based) quantile trends with those obtained from (linearly) time-dependent extreme value analysis and find reasonable mutual agreement in the observed mean trends. The obtained spatial patterns of trend values reveal seasonally different regionalized effects related to changes in the predominance of coastal vs. continental climatology, local geographical factors and the distribution of potential urban heat islands. For the gridded data sets, linear quantile regression provides a full picture of (seasonal) trends in daily surface air temperature extremes across the globe. The obtained results are largely consistent among different data sets in regions with good coverage by meteorological stations, but display marked differences in poorly covered regions, expecially around the poles and within large deserts. Notably, the observed differences originate mainly from time periods without available remote sensing data, whereas the estimated trend values converge when taking only the last about 35 years into account, providing additional confidence in the robustness of the observed trends.

  10. Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying the trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda for the period of 1961-1992, based on analysis of climatic data (temperatures, precipitations, and potential evapotranspiration). The analysis of magnitude and significance of trends in temperatures and aridity index show the degree of climate change and mark the level of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g., droughts) in different areas of the country. The study reveals that mean temperatures increased in most parts of the country, with a significant increase observed in the eastern lowlands and in the southwestern parts. The highlands located in the northwest and the Congo-Nile crest showed a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures. Aridity index increased only in March, April, October, and November, corresponding with the rainy seasons. The remaining months of the year showed a decreasing trend. At an annual resolution, the highlands and the western region showed a rise in aridity index with a decreasing pattern over the eastern lowlands and the central plateau. Generally, the highlands presented a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures and aridity index especially during the rainy seasons. The eastern lowlands showed a significant increase in mean temperatures and decreasing trends in aridity index. Therefore, these areas are bound to experience more droughts, leading to reduced water and consequent decline in agricultural production. On the other hand, the north highlands and southwest region will continue to be more productive.

  11. Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa.

    PubMed

    Stern, David I; Gething, Peter W; Kabaria, Caroline W; Temperley, William H; Noor, Abdisalan M; Okiro, Emelda A; Shanks, G Dennis; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2011-01-01

    There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho. PMID:21935416

  12. Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa

    PubMed Central

    Stern, David I.; Gething, Peter W.; Kabaria, Caroline W.; Temperley, William H.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Shanks, G. Dennis; Snow, Robert W.; Hay, Simon I.

    2011-01-01

    There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho. PMID:21935416

  13. Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

    2010-08-01

    As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

  14. The Trends of Soil Temperature Change Associated with Air Temperature Change in Korea from 1973 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Bo-Hyun; Park, Byeong-Hak; Koh, Eun-Hee; Lee, Kang-Kun

    2015-04-01

    Examining long-term trends of the soil temperature can contribute to assessing subsurface thermal environment. The recent 40-year (1973-2012) meteorological data from 14 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations was analyzed in this study to estimate the temporal variations of air and soil temperatures (at depths 0.5 and 1.0m) in Korea and their relations. The information on regional characteristics of study sites was also collected to investigate the local and regional features influencing the soil temperature. The long-term increasing trends of both air and soil temperatures were estimated by using simple linear regression analysis. The air temperature rise and soil temperature rise were compared for every site to reveal the relation between air and soil temperature changes. In most sites, the proportion of soil temperature rise to air temperature rise was nearly one to one except a few sites. The difference between the air and soil temperature trends at those sites may be attributed to the combined effect of soil properties such as thermal diffusivity and soil moisture content. The impact of urbanization on the air and soil temperature was also investigated in this study. Establishment of the relationship between the air and soil temperatures can help predicting the soil temperature change in a region where no soil temperature data is obtained by using air temperature data. For rigorous establishment of the relationship between soil and air temperatures, more thorough investigation on the soil thermal properties is necessary through additional monitoring and accompanied validation of the proposed relations. Keywords : Soil temperature, Air temperature, Cross-correlation analysis, Soil thermal diffusivity, Urbanization effect Acknowledgement This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for Groundwater Development and Application in Riversides (Geowater+)" in "Water Resources Management Program (code 11 Technology Innovation C05)" of the MOLIT and the KAIA in Korea.

  15. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

    2015-02-01

    In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  16. Temperature Trends in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Data Set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    TOVS (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder) is the suite of infra-red and microwave sounding instruments, including HIRS-2 and MSU, that have flown on the NOAA Polar orbiting operational satellites TIROS-N, NOAA 6-14 from November 1978 to the present day. Data has been analyzed for the entire time period using a consistent methodology to produce twice daily per satellite global fields of surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature-moisture profile, cloud top pressure, and fractional cloud cover, OLR and clear sky OLR, and precipitation. All parameters were found to depend on the orbit time of observation which differed as a function of time both because of differing initial satellite orbits and orbit drift. This must be accounted for before one can attempt to find trends in the data. Methodology to account for orbit drift will be shown. Trends will then be shown, over the 21 year period 1979-1999, for surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profile. There has been global warming near the surface which falls off rapidly with height. Trends will also be shown for values of MSU2R and MSU4 which are computed from the soundings. These will be compared to trends of MSU2R and MSU4 observed by Spencer and Christy. There is generally good agreement between Spencer and Christy MSU2R trends and those computed from the TOVS Pathfinder data set, with the largest differences over the tropics.

  17. Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

    2015-04-01

    Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

  18. Congressional Temperature Trends - Is the temperature changing in your district?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, C. J.; Cordero, E.

    2013-12-01

    Congress is interested in what happens in a Member's district or a Senator's state. We present a website: temperaturetrends.org that shows how temperature has changed at the district, state, national and global level. NOAA/NCDC (USHCN v2.5) bias-adjusted annual average surface temperatures are shown on the site. We also show comparison with the ocean heat content. This site has been used in numerous meetings with Congressional Staff and Members.

  19. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited

    PubMed Central

    Pascual, M.; Ahumada, J. A.; Chaves, L. F.; Rod, X.; Bouma, M.

    2006-01-01

    The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (warming) has been highly debated following a previous study reporting no evidence to support a trend in temperature. We revisit this result using the same temperature data, now updated to the present from 1950 to 2002 for four high-altitude sites in East Africa where malaria has become a serious public health problem. With both nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses, we find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites. To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions. This approach suggests that the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models. PMID:16571662

  20. Trends and Patterns of Change in Temperature and Evaporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global mean monthly temperature has increased substantially in the past decades. On the other hand, there are contradictory reports on the response of the potential evaporation to a warming climate. In this study, ground based observations of temperature, and direct measurements of pan potential evaporation are evaluated across the United States. Furthermore, empirical simulations of the potential evaporation have been evaluated against observations. The results show that empirical (e.g., Thornthwaite method) estimates of the potential evapotranspiration show trends inconsistent with the ground-based observations. In fact, while temperature data show a significant upward trend across most of the United States, ground-based evaporation data in most locations do not exhibit a statistically significant trend. Empirical methods of potential evaporation estimation, including the Thornthwaite method, show trends similar to temperature. The primary reason is that many of the empirical approaches are dominated by temperature. Currently, empirical estimates of potential evaporation are widely used for numerous applications including water stress analysis. This indicates that using empirical estimates of potential estimation for irrigation water demand estimation and also drought assessment could lead to unrealistic results.

  1. Temperature trends during the Present and Last Interglacial periods - a multi-model-data comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakker, P.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Martrat, B.; Charbit, S.; Renssen, H.; Grger, M.; Krebs-Kanzow, U.; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Pfeiffer, M.; Phipps, S. J.; Prange, M.; Ritz, S. P.; Schulz, M.; Stenni, B.; Stone, E. J.; Varma, V.

    2014-09-01

    Though primarily driven by insolation changes associated with well-known variations in Earth's astronomical parameters, the response of the climate system during interglacials includes a diversity of feedbacks involving the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation and land ice. A thorough multi-model-data comparison is essential to assess the ability of climate models to resolve interglacial temperature trends and to help in understanding the recorded climatic signal and the underlying climate dynamics. We present the first multi-model-data comparison of transient millennial-scale temperature changes through two intervals of the Present Interglacial (PIG; 8-1.2 ka) and the Last Interglacial (LIG; 123-116.2 ka) periods. We include temperature trends simulated by 9 different climate models, alkenone-based temperature reconstructions from 117 globally distributed locations (about 45% of them within the LIG) and 12 ice-core-based temperature trends from Greenland and Antarctica (50% of them within the LIG). The definitions of these specific interglacial intervals enable a consistent inter-comparison of the two intervals because both are characterised by minor changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and more importantly by insolation trends that show clear similarities. Our analysis shows that in general the reconstructed PIG and LIG Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude cooling compares well with multi-model, mean-temperature trends for the warmest months and that these cooling trends reflect a linear response to the warmest-month insolation decrease over the interglacial intervals. The most notable exception is the strong LIG cooling trend reconstructed from Greenland ice cores that is not simulated by any of the models. A striking model-data mismatch is found for both the PIG and the LIG over large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where the data depicts negative temperature trends that are not in agreement with near zero trends in the simulations. In this area, the positive local summer insolation trend is counteracted in climate models by an enhancement of the Southern Ocean summer sea-ice cover and/or an increase in Southern Ocean upwelling. If the general picture emerging from reconstructions is realistic, then the model-data mismatch in mid and high Southern Hemisphere latitudes implies that none of the models is able to resolve the correct balance of these feedbacks, or, alternatively, that interglacial Southern Hemisphere temperature trends are driven by mechanisms which are not included in the transient simulations, such as changes in the Antarctic ice sheet or meltwater-induced changes in the overturning circulation.

  2. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them with global datasets can provide some indication on biases. Compared to the global BEST dataset for the same countries, the national datasets of Austria, Italy and Switzerland have a 0.36°C per century stronger trend since 1901. For the trend since 1960 we can also take Australia, France and Slovenia into account and find a trend bias of 0.40°C per century. Relative to CRUCY the trend biases are smaller and only statistically significant for the period since 1980. The most direct way to study biases in the temperature records is by making parallel measurements with historical measurement set-ups. Several recent parallel data studies for the transition to Stevenson screens suggest larger biases: Austria 0.2°C, Spain 0.5 & 0.6°C. As well as older tropical ones: India 0.42°C and Sri Lanka 0.37°C. The smaller values from the Parker (1994) review mainly stem from parallel measurements from North-West Europe, which may have less problems with exposure. Furthermore, the influence of many historical transitions, especially the ones that could cause an artificial smaller trend, have not been studied in detail yet. We urgently need to study improvements of exposure (especially in the (sub-)tropics), increases in watering and irrigation, mechanical ventilation, better paints, relocations to airports, and relocations to suburbs of stations that started in the cities and from village centers to pasture, for example. Our current understanding surprisingly suggests that the more recent period may have the largest biases, but it could also be that even the best datasets are unable to improve earlier data sufficiently. If the temperature trend were actually larger it would reduce discrepancies between studies for a number of problems in climatology. For example, the estimates of transient climate sensitivity using instrumental data are lower as the one using climate models, volcanic eruptions or paleo data. Furthermore, several changes observed in the climate system are larger than expected. On the other hand, a large trend in the land surface temperature would make the discrepancy with the tropospheric temperature even larger (radiosondes and satellites) and it would introduce a larger difference between land and sea temperature trends. Concluding, at the moment there is no strong evidence yet that the temperature trend is underestimated. However, we do have a considerable amount of evidence that suggests that there is a moderate, but climatologically important bias that we should study with urgency. As far as we know there are no estimates for the remaining uncertainty in the global mean trend after homogenization. Also studies into the causes of cooling biases are a pressing need. (Many have contributed to this study, but it is not clear at this moment who would be official collaborators; they will be added later.)

  3. West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LY, M., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

  4. Stratospheric Temperature Trends from Small Rockets Between 1969-1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmidlin, F. J.

    2000-01-01

    Between 1958-1995 a significant number of small meteorological rocketsondes were launched by United States (US) agencies from as many as 30 sites to as few as 3-4 sites in 1995. Stratospheric temperature trends were derived for many of the sites for the period 1969-1995. Similar long-term trends also were derived using rocketsondes launched from sites of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The advantage of these two particular sets of rocket temperature measurements is the internal consistency of the data. All measurements were made with the same instrument, i.e., Datasonde in the case of the US sites and the M100B in the case of the FSU sites. Data from each instrument type were processed using its unique reduction method. Thus, all data were processed in the same manner including the method of applying corrections (necessary because of thermal heating of the thermistor from the high fall velocities experienced and from radiation effects). Straight-line least squares fit to the data made to monthly-mean measurements gave a downward change of 2-3 K per decade. A more complex fitting algorithm would have resulted in finer results but the straight-line fit was adequate for the analysis presented. Trend data are presented for 50 km, 40 km, and 25 km altitude levels. Trends for the US and FSU sites are quite similar. The 25km (50-hPa) level data are compared with radiosonde temperatures. Temperature trends over the 25-year period is different at each of the sites and not always in the same direction.

  5. Temperature Errors in Linearizing Resistance Networks for Thermistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D. R.

    2015-08-01

    It is well known that a single negative-temperature-coefficient thermistor can be linearized over a narrow temperature range by connecting a single resistor in parallel with the thermistor. With the linearizing resistor properly chosen for the operating temperature, the residual errors are proportional to the cube of the temperature range and have a peak value of about 0.2C for a 30C range. A greater range of temperatures can be covered or greater linearity be achieved by cascading thermistor-resistor combinations. This paper investigates the limits of the linearity performance of such networks by using interpolation to model their behavior. A simple formula is derived for estimating the residual non-linearity as a function of the number of thermistors, the temperature range covered by the network, and the constant characterizing the exponential temperature dependence of the thermistors. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the validity of the formula. Guidelines are also given for circuit topologies for realizing the networks, for optimizing the design of the networks, and for calculating the sensitivities to relative errors in the component values.

  6. Temperature Errors in Linearizing Resistance Networks for Thermistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    It is well known that a single negative-temperature-coefficient thermistor can be linearized over a narrow temperature range by connecting a single resistor in parallel with the thermistor. With the linearizing resistor properly chosen for the operating temperature, the residual errors are proportional to the cube of the temperature range and have a peak value of about 0.2 C for a 30 C range. A greater range of temperatures can be covered or greater linearity be achieved by cascading thermistor-resistor combinations. This paper investigates the limits of the linearity performance of such networks by using interpolation to model their behavior. A simple formula is derived for estimating the residual non-linearity as a function of the number of thermistors, the temperature range covered by the network, and the constant characterizing the exponential temperature dependence of the thermistors. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the validity of the formula. Guidelines are also given for circuit topologies for realizing the networks, for optimizing the design of the networks, and for calculating the sensitivities to relative errors in the component values.

  7. Temperature Trends in the White Mountains of New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, G.; Kelsey, E. P.; Raudzens Bailey, A.

    2014-12-01

    Located at the summit of Mount Washington (1917 m asl; ~800 hPa), the highest peak in the northeastern United States, the Mount Washington Observatory has meticulously recorded hourly temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, and other atmospheric variables for over 80 years using the same standard procedures to ensure high-quality, homogeneous data. Nearby Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (253 m asl; ~980 hPa), a Long-Term Ecological Research site, has recorded atmospheric and environmental data since 1956. Together, these two sites provide a unique opportunity to evaluate elevation-dependent climate changes. Using Sen's slope and the Mann Kendall non-parameteric test we examine annual and seasonal trends in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. Both Mount Washington and Hubbard Brook exhibit 56-yr warming trends for most seasons, however, the magnitudes and statistical significances are variable, suggesting the processes controlling these trends likely differ with elevation. Since 1957, for instance, spring maximum temperatures at Hubbard Brook have warmed 0.32 °C dec-1 and winter minimums have increased 0.54 °C dec-1, both well within the range reported for six neighboring low elevation stations from 1970-2012 (Wake et al, 2014a,b). In comparison, Mount Washington summit seasonal minimum temperature trends are typically weaker, with changes in winter minimums (the largest of the seasons) reaching only 0.33 °C dec-1. In this presentation, we highlight differences between these two long-term records and discuss possible role of moist processes and boundary layer/free troposphere exposure in causing their divergence. Authors are planning to study the effects of humidity and cloud-cover on summit temperatures and to investigate how changes in the frequency with which the summit is exposed to boundary layer and free tropospheric air masses influences these relationships.

  8. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded. PMID:25631444

  9. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, S.; Leptoukh, G. G.; Romanov, P.

    2011-12-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is an important element to measure the state of the terrestrial ecosystems and to study the surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected the global monthly LST measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS LST time series have ~11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and ~9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend and variability. In this study, monthly climatology from two satellite platforms are calculated and compared. The spatial patterns of LST trends are accessed, focusing on the Asian Monsoon region. Furthermore, the MODIS LST trends are compared with the skin temperature trend from the NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (MODERN ERA RETROSPECTIVE-ANALYSIS FOR RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS), which has longer data record since 1979. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS LST will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy access and use by scientists and general public.

  10. Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series have been constructed by several independent research teams using satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU) measurements beginning in 1978 and advanced MSU (AMSU) measurements since 1998. Despite careful efforts to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements, tropical TMT trends disagree by a factor of three even though each analysis uses the same basic data. Previous studies suggest that the discrepancy in tropical TMT temperature trends is largely caused by differences in both the NOAA-9 warm target factor and diurnal drift corrections used by various teams to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements. This work introduces a new observationally-based method for removing biases related to satellite diurnal drift. The method relies on minimizing inter-satellite and inter-node drifts by subtracting out a common diurnal cycle determined via linear regression. It is demonstrated that this method is effective at removing intersatellite biases and biases between the ascending (PM) and descending (AM) node of individual satellites in the TMT time series. After TMT bias correction, the ratio of tropical tropospheric temperature trends relative to surface temperature trends is in accord with the ratio from global climate models. It is shown that bias corrections for diurnal drift based on a climate model produce tropical trends very similar to those from the observationally-based correction, with a trend differences smaller than 0.02 K decade-1. Differences among various TMT datasets are explored further. Tropical trends from this work are comparable to those from the Remote Sensing System (RSS) and NOAA datasets despite small differences. Larger differences between this work and UAH are attributed to differences in the treatment of the NOAA-9 target factor and the UAH diurnal cycle correction.

  11. Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mkel, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2 C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

  12. Trend of monthly temperature and daily extreme temperature during 1951-2012 in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caloiero, Tommaso

    2016-03-01

    Among several variables affecting climate change and climate variability, temperature plays a crucial role in the process because its variations in monthly and extreme values can impact on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. In this study, an analysis of temperature data has been performed over 22 series observed in New Zealand. In particular, to detect possible trends in the time series, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was first applied at monthly scale and then to several indices of extreme daily temperatures computed since 1951. The results showed a positive trend in both the maximum and the minimum temperatures, in particular, in the autumn-winter period. This increase has been evaluated faster in maximum temperature than in minimum one. The trend analysis of the temperature indices suggests that there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, while most of the cold extremes showed a downward tendency.

  13. Temperature Icreasing Trend During Recent Four Decades At Riyadh Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almleaky, Y.; Sharaf, M.; Basurah, H.; Malawi, A.; Euony, S.

    In this paper the data analysis of one element of the meteorological data of old Riyadh, namely air temperature will be discussed. This station is located on the middle province of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and of coordinates (46.72 E and 24.65 N). The analysis of each of the global maximum and, the global minimum temperature is given for each year through out five points: its value, the date of occurrence, the day of the year and the Julian day, finally, the day of the year. Some statistics are provided for the smoothed values of the mean daily variation of the air temperature. We finally addressed some graphical representations, e.g. histograms, daily variations with their fitting equation. A preliminary conclusion indicating that there are general increasing trend in the temperature during the recent thirty four years.

  14. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy W.; Christy, John R.

    1990-01-01

    Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth's surface. Accurate global atmospheric temperature estimates are needed for detection of possible greenhouse warming, evaluation of computer models of climate change, and for understanding important factors in the climate system. Analysis of the first 10 years (1979 to 1988) of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes reveals a monthly precision of 0.01 C, large temperature variability on time scales from weeks to several years, but no obvious trend for the 10-year period. The warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983, and 1980. The years 1984, 1985, and 1986 were the coolest.

  15. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

  16. Concurrent trends in snow cover and air temperature in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Brox Nilsen, Irene; Stagge, James Howard; Merete Tallaksen, Lena

    2015-04-01

    At northern latitudes, the sensitivity to global warming is amplified as a result of the unique annual cycle and intensive growth season, which influences the radiative fluxes (e.g. the transport of energy). The Northern Hemisphere snow cover has a strong positive feedback on the energy balance through its influence on the surface albedo. A reduction in snow cover leads to a lowering of the albedo and thus, enhances the warming. Previous and ongoing research have revealed a major increase in air temperature for the whole of Norway, notable in winter and a general reduction in the snow cover at lower altitudes. In this study, we assess to what degree changes in snow cover (i.e. whether or not there is snow on the ground) can explain the enhanced temperature increase in winter. Daily time series of temperature, snow depth and snow cover area available for the whole of Norway at a spatial resolution of 1 km from seNorge (www.senorge.no) are analysed for the period 1958 to 2013. Data is successively aggregated for periods of 30 years (e.g., 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010). The aim is threefold; i) to estimate trends and changes in the climate variables on a monthly basis for selected 30-year periods for the whole of Norway ii) to analyse spatial patterns and concurrent trends in the variable and iii) assess to what degree changes in snow cover can explain the enhanced winter temperature using statistical methods, e.g., the regression test. The Theil-Sen estimator was selected for the trend analysis as it considers the relative differences of all the pairs of data of the considered dataset and is less sensitive to outliers than other estimators. Preliminary results confirm an increasing trend in temperature (especially in winter months). A substantial change in the snow cover area throughout the year is found. Later snowfall is seen in the northern parts of Norway in October, gradually shifting southwards. In November, snow cover reduction is notable in the southern coastal area, and in December a diminishing snow cover is found primarily at the south-east coast. Further, the snow depth decreases over the whole of Norway with larger reduction seen from January to May in the eastern part of Norway. This is likely a result of a shift in precipitation from snow to rain in both the beginning of winter as well as in early spring. In April/May reduction in snow cover is found in the lowlands and throughout the summer a reduction is seen also further north and in the highlands.

  17. Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii: A direct measurement of global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turcotte, D. L.; Malamud, B. D.

    2009-12-01

    Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. Here, we examine the hourly temperature records at this observatory for the 30-year period (1977-2006). We determine the linear trends in the annual averaged data as a function of the time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 6:00 local time) we find a near uniform warming trend, dT/dt ? 0.04 C/yr. During the day, the warming trend moderates to a slight cooling, with dT/dt ? -0.01 C/yr at 12:00 (noon). Our hourly data shows that there is a mean daily warming trend dT/dt = 0.022 C/yr for this period. The global temperature trend inferred from CO2 data by the IPCC in 2007 was dT/dt = 0.017(+0.009, -0.006) C/yr. The direct measurement from our observations is in quite good agreement with the IPCC value. A decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a direct signature of a greenhouse effect of CO2. For the Mauna Loa Observatory data we find a relatively large decrease in DTR with a yearly DTR change of d(DTR)/dt = -0.051 C/yr over the 30 year period under consideration. It is of interest to compare the high altitude Mauna Loa data with the sea level data at the Tutuila Observatory, American Samoa, for the same period. At Tutuila, the mean temperature trend is dT/dt = -0.013 C/yr and d(DTR)/dt = -0.051 C/yr. The greenhouse effect is the same at the two observatories, but the temperature trend is quite different. The latter can be attributed to the buffering effect of the ocean. We suggest that the temperature trends observed at the Mauna Loa Observatory are consistent with the observed increases in CO2 concentrations at the observatory, and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

  18. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  19. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate. PMID:26503051

  20. Mars Exospheric Temperature Trends as Revealed by MAVEN NGIMS Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bougher, Stephen W.; Olsen, Kirk; Roeten, Kali; Bell, Jared; Mahaffy, Paul; Benna, Mehdi; Elrod, Meredith; Jakosky, Bruce

    2015-11-01

    The Martian dayside upper thermosphere and exosphere temperatures (Texo) have been the subject of considerable debate and study since the first Mariner ultraviolet spectrometer (UVS) measurements (1969-1972), up to recent Mars Express SPICAM UVS measurements (2004-present) (e.g., see reviews by Stewart 1987; Bougher et al. 2000, 2014; Meller-Wodarg et al. 2008; Stiepen et al. 2014). Prior to MAVEN, the Martian upper atmosphere thermal structure was poorly constrained by a limited number of both in-situ and remote sensing measurements at selected locations, seasons, and periods scattered throughout the solar cycle. Nevertheless, it is recognized that the Mars orbit eccentricity determines that both the solar cycle and seasonal variations in upper atmosphere temperatures must be considered together. The MAVEN NGIMS instrument measures the neutral composition of the major gas species (e.g. He, N, O, CO, N2, O2, NO, Ar and CO2) and their major isotopes, with a vertical resolution of ~5 km for targeted species and a target accuracy of <25% for most of these species (Mahaffy et al. 2014; 2015). Corresponding temperatures can now be derived from the neutral scale heights (especially CO2, Ar, and N2) (e.g. Mahaffy et al. 2015; Bougher et al. 2015). Texo mean temperatures spanning ~200 to 300 km are examined for both Deep Dip and Science orbits over 11-February 2015 (Ls ~ 290) to 14-July 2015 (Ls ~ 12). During these times, dayside sampling below 300 km occurred from the dusk terminator, across the dayside, and approaching the dawn terminator. NGIMS temperatures are investigated to extract spatial (e.g. SZA) and temporal (e.g. orbit-to-orbit, seasonal, solar rotational) variability and trends over this sampling period. Solar and seasonal driven trends in Texo are clearly visible, but orbit-to-orbit variability is significant, and demands further investigation to uncover the major drivers that are responsible.

  1. An update on the global ozone climatology and on concurrent ozone and temperature trends

    SciTech Connect

    Fortuin, J.P.F.; Langematz, U.

    1995-12-31

    An attempt is made to construct a zonal and monthly mean ozone climatology for use in general circulation models, based on a combination of ozonesonde and satellite observations. One important advantage of such a climatology is a more realistic ozone distribution around the tropopause, where heating rates and climate forcing are most sensitive to changes in gas concentrations. Also, a linear trend study is performed, for the periods 1970--83 and 1980--93 separately, on concurrent ozone and temperature data obtained from a selection of ozonesonde stations. On average for northern polar- to mid-latitudes, these trends are insignificant for stratospheric ozone and temperature in the first period, but for the second period show a stratospheric ozone depletion and stratospheric cooling of around {minus}0.5%/year and {minus}0.15 K/year respectively. As for the troposphere in the same region, ozone shows an increase ({approximately} 1.5%/year) in the mid-troposphere but temperature trends are insignificant over the first period, versus no ozone trend but a clearly significant near-surface warming ({approximately} 0.2 K/year) in the second period. This average situation is however not representative for the separate regions it is composed of, i.e., Canada (4 stations), Japan (3 stations) and the US (1 station). Above Syowa station at the Antarctic coast, the acceleration in stratospheric ozone depletion as well as stratospheric cooling over the past two decades is clearly evident: from hardly significant ozone and temperature trends in the first period to values of up to {minus}4%/year and {minus}0.4 K/year respectively in the second period. In regions where near-surface ozone increase is evident over the past two decades, it is often accompanied by a significant near-surface warming.

  2. A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, S. F.

    2006-12-01

    How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result in much reduced values of climate sensitivity; for example, the neglect of important negative feedbacks. Allowing for uncertainties in the data and for imperfect models, there is only one valid conclusion from the failure of greenhouse models to explain the observations: The human contribution to global warming is still quite small, so that natural climate factors are dominant. This may also explain why the climate was cooling from 1940 to 1975 -- even as greenhouse-gas levels increased rapidly. An overall test for climate prediction may soon be possible by measuring the ongoing rise in sea level. According to my estimates, sea level should rise by 1.5 to 2.0 cm per decade (about the same rate as in past millennia); the U.N.-IPCC (4th Assessment Report) predicts 1.4 to 4.3 cm per decade. In the New York Review of Books (July 13, 2006), however, James Hansen suggests 20 feet or more per century -- equivalent to about 60 cm or more per decade.

  3. Multi-decadal surface temperature trends in East Antarctica inferred from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muto, Atsuhiro

    The climate trend of the Antarctic interior remains unclear relative to the rest of the globe because of a lack of long-term weather records. Recent studies by other authors utilizing sparse available records, satellite data, and models have estimated a significant warming trend in the near-surface air temperature in West Antarctica and weak and poorly constrained warming trend in East Antarctica for the past 50 years. In this dissertation, firn thermal profiling was used to detect multi-decadal surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica where few previous records of any kind exist. The surface temperature inversion from firn temperature profiles provides a climate reconstruction independent of firn chemistry, sparse weather data, satellite data, or ice cores, and therefore may be used in conjunction with these data sources for corroboration of climate trends over the large ice sheets. During the Norwegian-U.S. IPY Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica, in the austral summers of 2007--08 and 2008--09, thermal-profiling telemetry units were installed at five locations. Each unit consists of 16 PRTs (Platinum Resistance Thermometers) distributed in a back-filled borehole of 80 to 90 m deep. The accuracy of the temperature measurement is 0.03 K. Geophysical inverse methods (linearized and Monte Carlo inversion) were applied to one full year of data collected from three units installed near the ice divide in the Dome Fuji/Pole of Inaccessibility region and one on Recovery Lake B, situated >500 km south to south-west of and >1000 m lower in altitude than sites near the ice divide. Three sites near the ice divide indicate that the mean surface temperatures have increased approximately 1 to 1.5 K within the past ˜50 years although the onset and the duration of this warming vary by site. On the other hand, slight cooling to no change was detected at the Recovery Lake B site. Although uncertainties remain due to limitations of the method, these results raise the possibility of an interesting recent climate pattern in East Antarctica; significant warming trend near the ice divide and cooling to no change off the divide.

  4. Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models.

    PubMed

    Torres-Avils, Francisco; Moraga, Toms; Nez, Loreto; Icaza, Gloria

    2015-09-01

    The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies. PMID:26578021

  5. Non-linear responses of glass formers under temperature modulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odagaki, Takashi; Ueno, Takahiro; Saruyama, Yasuo

    2013-03-01

    The free energy landscape (FEL) approach to non-equilibrium systems has been shown to explain, in a unified manner, dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics observed in the vitrification process of super cooled liquids, and it is important to devise experiments which give information on the structure of the FEL. Here, we present a theoretical analysis of a new experimental technique which measures nonlinear responses under temperature modulation. Exploiting a simple model for glass formers, we first investigate dielectric relaxation when the temperature is subjected to a sudden change. We also report that three characteristic temperatures related to the glass transition can be determined from the analysis of the non-linear dielectric responses under oscillating temperature. Finally we discuss characteristic behavior of the frequency dependent diffusion constant, the intermediate scattering function and the generalized susceptibility under oscillating temperature.

  6. Whole season compared to growth-stage resolved temperature trends: implications for US maize yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, E. E.; Mueller, N. D.; Huybers, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of temperature on maize yield has generally been considered using a single value for the entire growing season. We compare the effect of temperature trends on yield between two distinct models: a single temperature sensitivity for the whole season and a variable sensitivity across four distinct agronomic development stages. The more resolved variable-sensitivity model indicates roughly a factor of two greater influence of temperature on yield than that implied by the single-sensitivity model. The largest discrepancies occur in silking, which is demonstrated to be the most sensitive stage in the variable-sensitivity model. For instance, whereas median yields are observed to be only 53% of typical values during the hottest 1% of silking-stage temperatures, the single-sensitivity model over predicts median yields of 68% whereas the variable-sensitivity model more correctly predicts median yields of 61%. That the variable sensitivity model is also not capable of capturing the full extent of yield losses suggests that further refinement to represent the non-linear response would be useful. Results from the variable sensitivity model also indicate that management decisions regarding planting times, which have generally shifted toward earlier dates, have led to greater yield benefit than that implied by the single-sensitivity model. Together, the variation of both temperature trends and yield variability within growing stages calls for closer attention to how changes in management interact with changes in climate to ultimately affect yields.

  7. Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David. R.

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations.

  8. Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas.

    PubMed

    Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David R

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations. PMID:25019892

  9. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in thetropical atmosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Mears, C.; Wentz, F.J.; Klein,S.A.; Seidel, D.J.; Taylor, K.E.; Thorne, P.W.; Wehner, M.F.; Gleckler,P.J.; Boyle, J.S.; Collins, W.D.; Dixon, K.W.; Doutriaux, C.; Free, M.; Fu, Q.; Hansen, J.E.; Jones, G.S.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T.R.; Lanzante, J.R.; Meehl, G.A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G.A.

    2005-08-11

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at the Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations, and is consistent with basic theory. On multi-decadal timescales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but occurs in only one observational dataset. Other observations show weak or even negative amplification. These results suggest that either different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal timescales, and models fail to capture such behavior, or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational datasets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  10. Resistance thermometer has linear resistance-temperature coefficient at low temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuzyk, W.

    1966-01-01

    Resistance thermometer incorporating a germanium resistance element with a platinum resistance element in a wheatstone bridge circuit has a linear temperature-resistance coefficient over a range from approximately minus 140 deg C to approximately minus 253 deg C.

  11. Trends and variability in East African rainfall and temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Ermert, Volker; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    The economy of East Africa is highly dependent on agriculture, leading to a strong vulnerability of local society to fluctuations in seasonal rainfall amounts, including extreme events. Hence, the knowledge about the evolution of seasonal rainfall under future climate conditions is crucial. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Regarding future climate projections, regional and global climate models partly disagree on the increase or decrease of East African rainfall. The specific aim of the present study is the acquirement of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite (rainfall) products (ARC2 and TRMM), and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of temperature and rainfall and their trends with the focus on most recent decades. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of pertinent large-scale modes of climate variability (Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Sea Surface Temperature of the Indian Ocean).

  12. Multivariate, non-linear trend analysis of heterogeneous water quality monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lischeid, Gunnar; Kalettka, Thomas; Steidl, Jrg; Merz, Christoph; Lehr, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Comprehensive water quality monitoring is considered a necessary prerequisite for sound water resources management and a valuable source for science. In practice, however, use of large monitoring data sets is often limited due to heterogeneous data sources, spatially and temporally variable monitoring schemes, non-equidistant sampling, large natural variability, and, last but not least, by the sheer size of the data sets that makes identification of unexpected peculiarities a tedious task. As a consequence, any initiation of gradual long-term system shifts can hardly be detected, especially as long as it is restricted to a small fraction of sampling sites. In addition, trends might be limited to a rather small subset of sampling sites or to certain periods of time and might thus escape attention. Usually, numerous solutes are monitored in parallel, but trend analyses are performed for each solute separately. However, in water quality samples trends are hardly restricted to single solutes, but affect various solutes synchronously in a characteristic way. Thus performing joint multivariate trend analyses would not only save effort and time, but would yield more robust assessments of system shifts. We present a non-linear multivariate data visualization approach that allows a rapid assessment of non-linear, possibly local trends and unexpected behaviour in large water quality monitoring data sets. It consists of a combination of Self-Organizing Maps and Sammon's Mapping (SOM-SM). The approach was applied to a data set of 2900 water samples, each comprising 13 solutes, compiled from various monitoring programs in the Federal State of Brandenburg (Germany). In total, 128 stream water, groundwater and small pond sites had been sampled between 1994 and 2012 at different and irregular time intervals. The SOM-SM product is a graph where every sample is represented by a symbol. Location of the symbols in the graph is optimized such that the distance between any two symbols in the graph is proportional to the dissimilarity of the two respective water samples with respect to all 13 solutes. In our study, the non-linear 2D projection of the SOM-SM reflected 75% of the variance of the 13D data set. For further analyses the same graph was used again and again, where different colouring revealed different information. Thus the user rapidly became acquainted with the large, high dimensional data set. At a first glance outliers easily could be identified as well as clusters of samples with similar solute concentration. Different groups of samples were analysed for the degree of overlap. Multivariate trend analysis was performed that did not only account for increasing or decreasing concentration of single solutes but for systemic shifts of characteristic solute concentration patterns as well. Partly converging trends were found, that is, sampling sites becoming more similar to each other. In addition, long-term decreasing variance was found at some sites. For checking for significant differences between different time periods confidence intervals were included in the graph. We conclude that the SOM-SM proved to be a powerful and extremely helpful tool for analysis of this large, heterogeneous water quality data set.

  13. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gmez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Maas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-12-01

    This is a call for contributions to a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical dedicated to integrability and nonlinear phenomena. The motivation behind this special issue is to summarize in a single comprehensive publication, the main aspects (past and present), latest developments, different viewpoints and the directions being followed in this multidisciplinary field. We hope that such a special issue could become a particularly valuable reference for the broad scientific community working in integrability and nonlinear phenomena. Editorial policy The Editorial Board has invited D Gmez-Ullate, S Lombardo, M Maas, M Mazzocco, F Nijhoff and M Sommacal to serve as Guest Editors for the special issue. Their criteria for the acceptance of contributions are as follows. The subject of the paper should relate to the following list of subjects: Integrable systems (including quantum and discrete) and applications Dynamical systems: Hamiltonian systems and dynamics in the complex domain Nonlinear waves, soliton equations and applications Nonlinear ODEs including Painlev equations and isomonodromic deformations Symmetries and perturbative methods in the classification of integrable PDEs Infinite dimensional Lie algebras and integrable systems Orthogonal Polynomials, Random Matrix Theory All contributions will be refereed and processed according to the usual procedure of the journal. Papers should report original and significant research that has not already been published. Guidelines for preparation of contributions The DEADLINE for contributed papers will be 28 February 2010. This deadline will allow the special issue to appear in October 2010. There is a nominal page limit of 15 printed pages per contribution (invited review papers can be longer). For papers exceeding this limit, the Guest Editors reserve the right to request a reduction in length. Further advice on publishing your work in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special IssueCurrent Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  14. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gmez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Maas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-11-01

    This is a call for contributions to a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical dedicated to integrability and nonlinear phenomena. The motivation behind this special issue is to summarize in a single comprehensive publication, the main aspects (past and present), latest developments, different viewpoints and the directions being followed in this multidisciplinary field. We hope that such a special issue could become a particularly valuable reference for the broad scientific community working in integrability and nonlinear phenomena. Editorial policy The Editorial Board has invited D Gmez-Ullate, S Lombardo, M Maas, M Mazzocco, F Nijhoff and M Sommacal to serve as Guest Editors for the special issue. Their criteria for the acceptance of contributions are as follows. The subject of the paper should relate to the following list of subjects: Integrable systems (including quantum and discrete) and applications Dynamical systems: Hamiltonian systems and dynamics in the complex domain Nonlinear waves, soliton equations and applications Nonlinear ODEs including Painlev equations and isomonodromic deformations Symmetries and perturbative methods in the classification of integrable PDEs Infinite dimensional Lie algebras and integrable systems Orthogonal Polynomials, Random Matrix Theory All contributions will be refereed and processed according to the usual procedure of the journal. Papers should report original and significant research that has not already been published. Guidelines for preparation of contributions The DEADLINE for contributed papers will be 28 February 2010. This deadline will allow the special issue to appear in October 2010. There is a nominal page limit of 15 printed pages per contribution (invited review papers can be longer). For papers exceeding this limit, the Guest Editors reserve the right to request a reduction in length. Further advice on publishing your work in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special IssueCurrent Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  15. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantua, N. J.; Johnstone, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5 to 1C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with strongest trends observed from 1910-20 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900-2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural, internally-generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012, and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

  16. Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tiao, G. C.

    1992-01-01

    Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

  17. Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jos; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2C to 27.8C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

  18. Amplification of and Trends in Arctic Surface Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comiso, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The earliest signals of a climate change are being observed in the Arctic where warming has been amplified primarily on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. The sensor with the longest record has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) that has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The primary source of error in the data is cloud masking because of similar signatures of clouds and snow/ice covered surfaces. The temperatures derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer from 2000 to the present were used as the baseline for the study and to enhance the AVHRR data. SSTs from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer were also used for assessments of accuracy and short term variability in ice free ocean regions. These three data sets were used in conjunction with meteorological station data to quantify changes in surface temperature over the pan-Arctic region. Our results show an average warming rate of 0.6C per decade in the Arctic (>64 N) from 1981 to 2013 which is 3 times that of about 0.2C per decade globally for the same period which in turn is more than 2 times the global warming rate from 1900 to 2013. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform with the trends varying from around 0.2oC/decade in Eurasia to about 0.7oC/decade in Greenland. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea show moderate cooling but caused in part by anomalously warm values in these regions in the 1980s. Also, the average SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be increasing and is highly correlated to changes in the sea ice cover.

  19. Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data.

    PubMed

    Figura, Simon; Livingstone, David M; Kipfer, Rolf

    2015-01-01

    Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse-gas emissions scenario employed. PMID:25412761

  20. Non-Linear trends in the blood pressure of Japanese adults.

    PubMed

    Hasegawa, T; Oshima, M

    2001-05-01

    Hypertension is one of the risk factors for the development of coronary artery disease as well as stroke. The National Nutrition Survey shows that the systolic and diastolic blood pressures of Japanese adults have decreased over time. These trends have plateaued during the last decade. We investigated national trends in blood pressure (BP) levels during these 10 years by plotting the relation between the mean BP levels during year t, BP(t), and those of the following year, BP(t+1). When we plotted the systolic BP levels of Japanese men and women aged 15 to 80 years, the trace revolved clockwise, with cycles of 4 to 5 years. The approximate center of the circular trace corresponding to data for 1985 through 1990 was at 134 mmHg in men and 129 mmHg in women, and the approximate center of a smaller circle was at 135 mmHg in men and 130 mmHg in women, respectively. In addition, with respect to the data for Japanese men in their 60s, the mean systolic BP level decreased linearly from 1982 to 1986, whereas it seemed to generate 4 circles after 1986. The approximate center of the first circle was 146 mmHg in the men. The center of the second circle was 145 mmHg and that of the third circle was 144 mmHg. Plotting of the data for Japanese women of the same age group yielded the same number of circles as the data for men. Our method of documenting changes in the mean BP levels in Japanese adults provided information about a chaotic oscillation that occurred in the populations we studied. The centers of Lorenz-plotted circles may thus provide essential information about trends in the BP levels in these populations. PMID:11409643

  1. Design and laboratory testing of a prototype linear temperature sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dube, C. M.; Nielsen, C. M.

    1982-07-01

    This report discusses the basic theory, design, and laboratory testing of a prototype linear temperature sensor (or "line sensor'), which is an instrument for measuring internal waves in the ocean. The operating principle of the line sensor consists of measuring the average resistance change of a vertically suspended wire (or coil of wire) induced by the passage of an internal wave in a thermocline. The advantage of the line sensor over conventional internal wave measurement techniques is that it is insensitive to thermal finestructure which contaminates point sensor measurements, and its output is approximately linearly proportional to the internal wave displacement. An approximately one-half scale prototype line sensor module was teste in the laboratory. The line sensor signal was linearly related to the actual fluid displacement to within 10%. Furthermore, the absolute output was well predicted (within 25%) from the theoretical model and the sensor material properties alone. Comparisons of the line sensor and a point sensor in a wavefield with superimposed turbulence (finestructure) revealed negligible distortion in the line sensor signal, while the point sensor signal was swamped by "turbulent noise'. The effects of internal wave strain were also found to be negligible.

  2. Linear magnetoelectricity at room temperature in perovskite superlattices by design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Saurabh; Das, Hena; Fennie, Craig J.

    2015-11-01

    Discovering materials that display a linear magnetoelectric (ME) effect at room temperature is a challenge. Such materials could facilitate devices based on the electric field control of magnetism. Here we present simple, chemically intuitive design rules to identify a class of bulk magnetoelectric materials based on the "bicolor" layering of P b n m ferrite perovskites, e.g., LaFeO3/LnFeO3 superlattices, Ln = lanthanide cation. We use first-principles density functional theory calculations to confirm these ideas. We elucidate the origin of this effect and show it is a general consequence of the layering of any bicolor P b n m perovskite superlattice in which the number of constituent layers are odd (leading to a form of hybrid improper ferroelectricity). Our calculations suggest that the ME effect in these superlattices is larger than that observed in the prototypical magnetoelectric materials Cr2O3 and BiFeO3. Furthermore, in these proposed materials, the strength of the linear ME coupling increases with the magnitude of the induced spontaneous polarization which is controlled by the La/Ln cation radius mismatch. We use a simple mean field model to show that the proposed materials order magnetically above room temperature.

  3. Linearity between temperature peak and bioenergy CO2 emission rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Gasser, Thomas; Bright, Ryan M.; Ciais, Philippe; Strmman, Anders H.

    2014-11-01

    Many future energy and emission scenarios envisage an increase of bioenergy in the global primary energy mix. In most climate impact assessment models and policies, bioenergy systems are assumed to be carbon neutral, thus ignoring the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation. Here, we show that the temperature peak caused by CO2 emissions from bioenergy is proportional to the maximum rate at which emissions occur and is almost insensitive to cumulative emissions. Whereas the carbon-climate response (CCR; ref. ) to fossil fuel emissions is approximately constant, the CCR to bioenergy emissions depends on time, biomass turnover times, and emission scenarios. The linearity between temperature peak and bioenergy CO2 emission rates resembles the characteristic of the temperature response to short-lived climate forcers. As for the latter, the timing of CO2 emissions from bioenergy matters. Under the international agreement to limit global warming to 2 C by 2100, early emissions from bioenergy thus have smaller contributions on the targeted temperature than emissions postponed later into the future, especially when bioenergy is sourced from biomass with medium (50-60 years) or long turnover times (100 years).

  4. Spatial differentiation of temperature extremes trends in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ustrnul, Z.; Wypych, A.

    2010-09-01

    Extreme meteorological phenomena have been recently an important topic of discussion among both scientists and people in general. More and more often people are asking themselves what is going to happen in the nearest future and how the life is going to change due to the climate change and extreme weather phenomena that are taking place. The main objective of the research is to present the tendencies in air temperature extremes variability in Poland during the latest decades. Existing research on meteorological extremes occurrence proved that the country is characterized by the considerable spatial differentiation of extremes. Therefore the important scope of the study is also to analyze the spatial differentiation of tendencies in extreme values variability. The basic research material, maximum and minimum air temperature values, was based on the data from 54 meteorological stations relatively regular distributed all over the country. The data covers the period of 58 years from 1951 to 2008. Extremes evaluation required the source material to be thoroughly checked regarding homogeneity. Daily maximum and minimum temperature values were checked many times and in some cases data series were abandoned while the fully evaluation was not possible. The extremes were identified by the probability approach. To differentiate the extremes of the interest the following thresholds were applied: 10%, 5% and very rigorous criteria of 1% that is the 10th and 90th, 5th and 95th as well as 1st and 99th percentiles respectively. The data were analyzed regarding the long term variability of extreme values: minimum and maximum air temperature and the frequency of their occurrence within the period under examination. The analysis of particular extreme phenomena showed that they occurred at various moments from 1951 to 2008. Although many extremes were recorded in the latest two decades (since 1990), a considerable number of them have also been observed in the 1950s and 1960s. The obtained results show spatial differentiation of both extreme air temperature values and their long-term tendency. For "mild" extremes (distinguished with the mild criteria of 10th and 90th percentiles) winter minima showed the slight decreasing tendency over most of the area of Poland except for the North-East (approximately 1.2 day/10 years). Summer maxima demonstrated statistically significant positive trends in western Poland (the increase reaches about 1.5 day/10 years) whereas eastern part of the country is not characterized by any visible tendency in temperature extremes variability. In case of "sharp" extremes (p=1%) none statistically significant tendencies are observed. The analyses proved important local differences even in the scale of particular regions. It absolutely certifies that detailed and thorough data examination is necessary. The obtained results confirm also the local differentiation of climate conditions and subsequently the problem of representative character of the stations, especially those used in extreme meteorological phenomena research.

  5. Observational evidence of temperature trends at two levels in the surface layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, X.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.; Mahmood, R.; Fiebrich, C. A.; Aiken, R.

    2015-09-01

    Long-term surface air temperatures at 1.5 m screen level over land are used in calculating a global average surface temperature trend. This global trend is used by the IPCC and others to monitor, assess, and describe global warming or warming hiatus. Current knowledge of near-surface temperature trends with respect to height, however, is limited and inadequately understood because surface temperature observations at different heights in the surface layer in the world are rare especially from a high-quality and long-term climate monitoring network. Here we use high-quality two-height Oklahoma Mesonet observations, synchronized in time, fixed in height, and situated in relatively flat terrain, to assess temperature trends and differentiating temperature trends with respect to heights (i.e., near-surface lapse rate trend) over the period 1997 to 2013. We show that the near-surface lapse rate has significantly decreased with a trend of -0.18 ± 0.03 °C (10 m)-1 decade-1 indicating that the 9 m height temperatures increased faster than temperatures at the 1.5 m screen level and conditions at the 1.5 m height cooled faster than at the 9 m height. However, neither of the two individual height temperature trends by themselves were statistically significant. The magnitude of lapse rate trend is greatest under lighter winds at night. Nighttime lapse rate trends were significantly more negative than daytime lapse rate trends and the average lapse rate trend was three times more negative under calm conditions than under windy conditions. Our results provide the first observational evidence of near-surface temperature changes with respect to height that could enhance the assessment of climate model predictions.

  6. Non-linear saturation mechanism of electron temperature gradient modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokluoglu, E. K.; Sokolov, V.; Sen, A. K.

    2012-10-01

    The electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode is a very plausible candidate to explain the large electron particle transport and thermal conduction. Production and identification of slab ETG modes and measurement electron transport have been already reported [X. Wei, V. Sokolov, and A. K. Sen, Phys. Plasmas 17, 042108 (2010); V. Sokolov and A. K. Sen, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2011)]. Now, we develop a theoretical model of non-linear saturation mechanism of ETG mode based on the three wave coupling of an unstable high frequency ETG mode with a damped ETG radial harmonic and a damped ion acoustic (IA) mode. Bicoherence analysis of Columbia linear machine (CLM) data show coupling between ETG modes (2.4 MHz) and a low frequency mode (50 kHz). The large damping drive of the ETG radial harmonic accompanied by the smaller but finite damping of the IA mode presents an energy sink for the unstable ETG mode, thus causing saturation. This model predicts a saturation level of 10% and agrees with the observed levels of ETG modes in the CLM.

  7. Non-linear saturation mechanism of electron temperature gradient modes

    SciTech Connect

    Tokluoglu, E. K.; Sokolov, V.; Sen, A. K.

    2012-10-15

    The electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode is a very plausible candidate to explain the large electron particle transport and thermal conduction. Production and identification of slab ETG modes and measurement electron transport have been already reported [X. Wei, V. Sokolov, and A. K. Sen, Phys. Plasmas 17, 042108 (2010); V. Sokolov and A. K. Sen, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2011)]. Now, we develop a theoretical model of non-linear saturation mechanism of ETG mode based on the three wave coupling of an unstable high frequency ETG mode with a damped ETG radial harmonic and a damped ion acoustic (IA) mode. Bicoherence analysis of Columbia linear machine (CLM) data show coupling between ETG modes ({approx}2.4 MHz) and a low frequency mode ({approx}50 kHz). The large damping drive of the ETG radial harmonic accompanied by the smaller but finite damping of the IA mode presents an energy sink for the unstable ETG mode, thus causing saturation. This model predicts a saturation level of {approx}10% and agrees with the observed levels of ETG modes in the CLM.

  8. Local and large-scale influences on Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceppi, P.; Scherrer, S. C.; Fischer, A.; Appenzeller, C.

    2010-09-01

    Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959-2008, using a new 2x2 km gridded data set based on carefully homogenized ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail and second, to quantify the contribution of global, large-scale and local-scale effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35C/decade (~1.6 times the global warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. The corresponding seasonal trends from the ENSEMBLES project regional climate models are weaker (~0.2C/decade for all seasons) and show somewhat different patterns of altitude dependence. A large fraction of the trends can be explained by fluctuations in atmospheric circulation patterns, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, the magnitude and vertical distribution of the trends are reproduced accurately using large-scale and regional circulation dynamics effects only, while ~30-45% of the trends remain unexplained in spring and summer. In autumn, the mean trend is roughly reproduced but the altitudinal differences remain unexplained. This suggests that local effects are important to explain part of recent temperature trends in spring, summer and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the 5-10% higher spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes.

  9. Output trends, characteristics, and measurements of three megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Murshed

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to characterize and understand the long-term behavior of the output from megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators. Output trends of nine beams from three linear accelerators over a period of more than three years are reported and analyzed. Output, taken during daily warm-up, forms the basis of this study. The output is measured using devices having ion chambers. These are not calibrated by accredited dosimetry laboratory, but are baseline-compared against monthly output which is measured using calibrated ion chambers. We consider the output from the daily check devices as it is, and sometimes normalized it by the actual output measured during the monthly calibration of the linacs. The data show noisy quasi-periodic behavior. The output variation, if normalized by monthly measured "real' output, is bounded between ± 3%. Beams of different energies from the same linac are correlated with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97, for one particular linac, and as low as 0.44 for another. These maximum and minimum correlations drop to 0.78 and 0.25 when daily output is normalized by the monthly measurements. These results suggest that the origin of these correlations is both the linacs and the daily output check devices. Beams from different linacs, independent of their energies, have lower correlation coefficient, with a maximum of about 0.50 and a minimum of almost zero. The maximum correlation drops to almost zero if the output is normalized by the monthly measured output. Some scatter plots of pairs of beam output from the same linac show band-like structures. These structures are blurred when the output is normalized by the monthly calibrated output. Fourier decomposition of the quasi-periodic output is consistent with a 1/f power law. The output variation appears to come from a distorted normal distribution with a mean of slightly greater than unity. The quasi-periodic behavior is manifested in the seasonally averaged output, showing annual variability with negative variations in the winter and positive in the summer. This trend is weakened when the daily output is normalized by the monthly calibrated output, indicating that the variation of the periodic component may be intrinsic to both the linacs and the daily measurement devices. Actual linac output was measured monthly. It needs to be adjusted once every three to six months for our tolerance and action levels. If these adjustments are artificially removed, then there is an increase in output of about 2%-4% per year. PMID:25207404

  10. Trend direction changes of Turkish temperature series in the first half of 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogan, Mustafa; Ulke, Asli; Cigizoglu, Hikmet Kerem

    2015-07-01

    The presented study was concentrated on the trend analysis of the annual mean temperature series of 40 meteorological stations in all climatic zones of Turkey. The sensitivity of the parametric and nonparametric tests to the selected record periods was investigated in detail. Backward-shifted and forward-shifted trend analyses were accomplished by keeping either the beginning or the ending data period constant and varying the other period ending. This analysis resulted with a trend statistic direction turning point at the year 1992. Following this result, the trend tests were applied to three different records to distinguish the effect of 1992 on the trend direction. For the period 1950-1992, the downward trend was dominating several stations whereas only upward trend was observed for 1986-2006 period. Clearly, the trend direction change in 1992 dominated the trend behavior between 1986 and 2006. The opposite trend orientations on 1950-1992 and 1986-2006 periods seem to be neutralized on 1950-2006 period with the majority of the stations showing no trend as the result. This study displays the effect of different lengths of data record on the trend analysis results. It has been clear by this study that a sudden change on trend direction is obvious at the stations above 39N in Turkey provinces in 1992. These results are conformed to the previous studies related with climate change like temperature, sea level, meteorological observations, and dominant climatic events as North Atlantic Oscillation and El-Nio and Southern Oscillation.

  11. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

  12. Radiative analysis of global mean temperature trends in the middle atmosphere: Effects of non-locality and secondary absorption bands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fomichev, V. I.; Jonsson, A. I.; Ward, W. E.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we provide a refined and extended assignment of past and future temperature changes relative to previous analyses and describe and evaluate the relevance of vertical coupling and non-linear and secondary radiative mechanisms for the interpretation of climatic temperature variations in the middle atmosphere. Because of their nature, the latter mechanisms are not adequately accounted for in most regression analyses of temperature trends as a function of local constituent variations. These mechanisms are examined using (1) globally averaged profiles from transient simulations with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances and (2) a one-dimensional radiative-equilibrium model forced using the diagnosed global mean changes in radiatively active constituents as derived from the CMAM model runs. The conditions during the periods 1975 to 1995 and 2010 to 2040 (during which the rates of change in ozone and CO2 differ) provide a suitable contrast for the role of the non-linear and non-local mechanisms being evaluated in this paper to be clearly differentiated and evaluated. Vertical coupling of radiative transfer effects and the influence of secondary absorption bands are important enough to render the results of multiple linear regression analyses between the temperature response and constituent changes misleading. These effects are evaluated in detail using the 1D radiative-equilibrium model using profiles from the CMAM runs as inputs. In order to explain the differences in the CMAM temperature trends prior to and after 2000 these other radiative effects must be considered in addition to local changes in the radiatively active species. The middle atmosphere temperature cools in response to CO2 and water vapor increases, but past and future trends are modulated by ozone changes.

  13. Differences between near-surface equivalent temperature and temperature trends for the Eastern United States. Equivalent temperature as an alternative measure of heat content

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davey, C.A.; Pielke, R.A., Sr.; Gallo, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    There is currently much attention being given to the observed increase in near-surface air temperatures during the last century. The proper investigation of heating trends, however, requires that we include surface heat content to monitor this aspect of the climate system. Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends. The microclimates evident at many surface observation sites highlight the influence of land surface characteristics on local surface heating trends. Temperature and equivalent temperature trend differences from 1982-1997 are examined for surface sites in the Eastern U.S. Overall trend differences at the surface indicate equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in the Eastern U.S. Seasonally, equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in winter and are relatively cooler in the fall. These patterns, however, vary widely from site to site, so local microclimate is very important. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Finite temperature orbital and spin magnetism of small Fe linear chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garibay-Alonso, R.; Guilln-Escamilla, I.; Reyes-Reyes, M.; Lpez-Sandoval, R.

    2015-07-01

    The finite temperature spin and orbital magnetism of N?slant 10 FeN linear chains is theoretically studied in the framework of a spin fluctuation theory based on a realistic d-band model Hamiltonian, which includes the spin-orbit coupling interaction in a non-perturbative way. Spin and orbital magnetic moments are calculated as a function of the temperature by using an exchange Monte Carlo method that takes into account in a full way the short-range magnetic order. The finite temperature anisotropy effects on the spin and orbital cluster moment values are analysed by considering magnetization directions perpendicular to and along the chain axis. The temperature dependence of the orbital cluster moment follows a general trend similar to that of the spin one and shows clear anisotropy effects at low and intermediate temperatures, before total thermal disorder appears. Interesting anisotropy effects driven by thermal spin fluctuations are also observed for the spin results in most of the systems.

  15. Studying the force characteristics of a high temperature superconducting linear synchronous motor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Luhai; Jin, Jianxun

    2011-08-01

    A single-sided high temperature superconducting (HTS) linear synchronous motor (HTSLSM) with an HTS bulk magnet array as its secondary has been developed. A field-cooled magnetization system has also been developed to obtain the magnet array with alternate magnetic poles. In order to identify the performance and force characteristics of the HTSLSM, an equivalent 3D finite element analysis (FEA) model has been built up to analyze its field distributions and cogging force characteristics, and an experimental system has been constructed to measure its thrust and normal force characteristics. The traits of the thrust and the normal force have been extracted by comprehensive experiments, including the trends versus different exciting currents, different air gap lengths and variable magnetic poles. The analysis and experimental results are fundamental to the electromagnetic optimum design and control scheme evaluation for the HTSLSM.

  16. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M.; Sibley, Adam M.; Lobell, David B.

    2013-06-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (Tcrit), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980-2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and Tcrit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for Tcrit. Increasing Tcrit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over Tcrit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO2), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.

  17. Effects of pollution on temperature trends over mountains and cities in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper the global hourly surface observational climate data (NCDC) from 1980 to 2012 are used to investigate the effects of visibility on the different temperature trends in four mountain stations and their nearby city and plain stations. No doubt, the mountains, cities, and plains all show the significant warming trend during 1980-2012. However, except for Chengdu, the trends in all cities and plains are low than their nearby mountains. The climatological visibilities of cities are much lower than mountains and the negative trends of visibility in cities are larger than those in mountains. The hazy days (visibility < 10 km) in cities also show the larger positive trends than those in mountains. There are larger aerosol concentrates in low visibility situations and the cooling radiation effects of aerosol induce the lower temperature trends in cities than in mountains. The stronger warming in Chengdu is due to its larger hot island effects.

  18. Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2009-01-01

    Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

  19. The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Regional changes in California surface temperatures over the last 80 years are analyzed using station data from the US Historical Climate Network and the National Weather Service Cooperative Network. Statistical analyses using annual and seasonal temperature data over the last 80 years show distinct...

  20. Trends and projections of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover during snow cover-observed period over southwestern Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarenistanak, Mohammad; Dhorde, Amit G.; Kripalani, R. H.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

    2015-11-01

    In the present study, tendencies in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area over the southwestern part of Iran have been assessed. The research mainly focused on snow cover-observed period which included the months of December, January, February, March, and April in the area. This research has been divided into two parts. First part consists of an analysis of the trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area during the above months. Trends in these parameters were tested by linear regression, and significance was determined by t test. Mann-Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results of linear regression. Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) was applied for change point detection in the series. For snow cover analysis, remote sensing images from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite with advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor for the period 1987-2007 were used. The second part of the research involved future projections based on four models under B1 and A1B emission scenarios. The models used were centre national de recherches meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during February and April. Temperature projections showed that temperature may increase between 1.12 to 7.87 °C by 2100 in the study area. The results of precipitation series indicated that majority of the stations registered insignificant trends during the twentieth century. However, precipitation may decrease according to most of the models under both scenarios, but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. The results of trend analysis of snow cover area indicated that no significant trends were detected by any statistical tests at 95 % confidence level during the twentieth century. Snow cover projection showed that snow cover area may decrease as indicated by all the models under both scenarios at the end of twenty-first century consistent with the projected increase in temperature.

  1. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNider, R. T.; Christy, J. R.; Biazar, A.

    2010-08-01

    One of the most significant signals in the thermometer-observed temperature record since 1900 is the decrease in the diurnal temperature range over land, largely due to warming of the minimum temperatures. While some data sets have indicated this asymmetrical warming has been reduced since 1979, regional analyses (e.g. East Africa) indicate that the nocturnal warming continues at a pace greater than daytime temperatures. The cause for this night time warming in the observed temperatures has been attributed to a variety of causes. Climate models have in general not replicated the change in diurnal temperature range well. Here we would like to try to distinguish between warming in the nocturnal boundary layer due to a redistribution of heat and warming due to the accumulation of heat. The temperature at night at shelter height is a result of competition between thermal stability and mechanical shear. If stability wins then turbulence is suppressed and the cooling surface becomes cut-off from the warmer air aloft, which leads to sharp decay in surface air temperature. If shear wins, then turbulence is maintained and warmer air from aloft is continually mixed to the surface, which leads to significantly lower cooling rates and warmer temperatures. This warming occurs due to a redistribution of heat. As will be shown by techniques of nonlinear analysis the winner of the stability and shear contest can be very sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas forcing, surface roughness, cloudiness, and surface heat capacity (including soil moisture). Further, the minimum temperatures measured in the nocturnal boundary layer represent only a very shallow layer of the atmosphere which is usually only a few hundred meters thick. It is likely that the observed warming in minimum temperature, whether caused by additional greenhouse forcing or land use changes or other land surface dynamics, is reflecting a redistribution of heat by turbulence-not an accumulation of heat. Because minimum temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.

  2. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  3. Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

  4. Wind speed and temperature trends impacts on reference evapotranspiration in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liuzzo, Lorena; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the impacts of both temperature and wind speed trends on reference evapotranspiration have been assessed using as a case study the Southern Italy, which present a wide variety of combination of such climatic variables trends in terms of direction and magnitude. The existence of statistically significant trends in wind speed and temperature from observational datasets, measured in ten stations over Southern Italy during the period 1968-2004, has been investigated. Time series have been examined using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test in order to detect possible evidences of wind speed and temperature trends at different temporal resolution and significance level. Once trends have been examined and quantified, the effects of these trends on seasonal reference evapotranspiration have been evaluated using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. Results quantified the effects of extrapolated temperature and wind speed trends on reference evapotranspiration. Where these climatic drivers are on the same direction, reference evapotranspiration generally increases during the growing season due to a nonlinear overlapping of effects. Whereas wind speed decreases and temperature increases, there is a sort of counterbalancing effect between the two considered climatic forcing in determining future reference evapotranspiration.

  5. Temperature trends and Urban Heat Island intensity mapping of the Las Vegas valley area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, Adam Leland

    Modified urban climate regions that are warmer than rural areas at night are referred to as Urban Heat Islands or UHI. Islands of warmer air over a city can be 12 degrees Celsius greater than the surrounding cooler air. The exponential growth in Las Vegas for the last two decades provides an opportunity to detect gradual temperature changes influenced by an increasing presence of urban materials. This thesis compares ground based thermometric observations and satellite based remote sensing temperature observations to identify temperature trends and UHI areas caused by urban development. Analysis of temperature trends between 2000 and 2010 at ground weather stations has revealed a general cooling trend in the Las Vegas region. Results show that urban development accompanied by increased vegetation has a cooling effect in arid climates. Analysis of long term temperature trends at McCarran and Nellis weather stations show 2.4 K and 1.2 K rise in temperature over the last 60 years. The ground weather station temperature data is related to the land surface temperature images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper to estimate and evaluate urban heat island intensity for Las Vegas. Results show that spatial and temporal trends of temperature are related to the gradual change in urban landcover. UHI are mainly observed at the airport and in the industrial areas. This research provides useful insight into the temporal behavior of the Las Vegas area.

  6. Long Term MSU Tropospheric and Ground Temperature Trends (1979-2008) Over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, A. K.; El-Askary, H.; Kafatos, M.

    2009-12-01

    Africa, the second largest and second most populous continent, is marked by an arid desert zone in the north (10-40N), dense forest and tropical climate in the central region (10S to 10N), and a southern temperate zone (10-40S). The African landmass, which is symmetrically distributed across the equator, shows differential heating and cooling atmospheric (lower- and mid-tropospheric) temperature trends. The northern arid region, a main source of major dust storms and mineral dust aerosols, shows a larger warming trend compared to the central region characterized by dense forest and forest fires. The mean annual lower- and mid-tropospheric temperature trend (Microwave Sounding Units MSU, 1979-2008) is found be 0.0230.006 K/year and 0.0180.003 K/year respectively over northern Africa (Saharan region) as compared to 0.0100.003 K/year and 0.0090.002 K/year over the central equatorial, and mostly forest-covered region (Figure 1). The southern region shows a mean annual lower- and mid-tropospheric temperature trend of 0.0150.004 K/year and 0.0110.003 K/year, which is lower than the desert region. The dense tropical forest region near the equator shows the lowest tropospheric temperature trend (lower: 0.0110.003 K/year; mid: 0.0070.002 K/year) over the Africa (Figure 1). The warmest temperature trend was observed over the eastern Saharan region, covering parts of Egypt, Libya, and the northern parts of Sudan, Chad and Niger. We have also compared the MSU-derived atmospheric temperature trends to ground-based temperature trends available for Egypt and some surrounding regions. The mean annual MSU tropospheric trends over the Saharan region are relatively low compared to other major Asian deserts, such as the Taklamakan and the Gobi Desert in the northern mid-latitudes, which show a trend of 0.0370.008 K/year (lower) and 0.0250.006 K/year (mid). The seasonal and month-to-month variability of temperature trends over Africa and their comparison with other parts of the world will be discussed in detail. Figure 1. Long-term (30 years) mean annual MSU-derived tropospheric temperature trend (K/year) over the African Continent.

  7. Asymmetric trends in seasonal temperature variability based on long instrumental records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiu, Michael; Ankerst, Donna; Menzel, Annette

    2015-04-01

    While the increase in global mean temperature over the past several decades is widely accepted, the issue as to whether and to what extent temperature variability is changing has not been solved yet. Temperature variability as the width of the temperature distribution measures the likelihood of temperature extremes. Those changes can amplify, nullify or reduce the effect a gradual warming has on extremes. Since climatic extremes exert large impacts on society and ecology, effects of altered temperature variability must be considered in tandem with effects of a gradually increasing temperature mean. Previous studies of trends in mean temperature and its associated variability have produced conflicting results. Here we investigate 10 selected long-term climate records of minimum, mean and maximum temperatures in Switzerland, Germany and the UK. In detail, we analysed trends in seasonal, annual and decadal measures of variability (standard deviation and various quantile ranges) as well as asymmetries in the trends of extreme vs mean temperatures via quantile regression. Besides accelerated mean warming during 1864-2012, we found higher trends for Tmax than for Tmin in the last 40 years (1973-2012), amounting to up to 0.08C yr-1 in spring. In contrast, variability trends were not as uniform: significant changes occurred in opposing directions depending on the season, as well as when comparing 1864-2012 trends to those of 1973-2012. Often, variability changed asymmetrically and consequently, trends in high and low extremes differed. More patterns were detected for spatial and seasonal variation in these changes of variability.

  8. Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleig, A. K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; James, P.; Hisdal, H.; Stahl, K.

    2015-07-01

    Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in synoptic atmospheric circulation. The relative importance of synoptic circulation changes (i.e. trends in synoptic type frequencies) as opposed to trends in the hydrothermal properties of synoptic types (within-type trends) on precipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthly basis. The study is based on mapping spatial and temporal trend patterns and their variability at a relatively high resolution (0.5 0.5; monthly) across Europe. Gridded precipitation and temperature data (1963-2001) originate from the Watch Forcing Data set and synoptic types are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen (SVG). During the study period, relatively high influence of synoptic circulation changes are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends in northern Europe and drying in the south. Simultaneously, particularly dry synoptic types get warmer first in south-western Europe in November and/or December and affect most of Europe in March and/or April. Strong influence of synoptic circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general, changes in synoptic circulation has a stronger effect on climate trends in north-western Europe than in the south-east. The exact locations of the strongest influence of synoptic circulation changes vary with the time of year and to some degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year and across the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are caused by a combination of synoptic circulation changes and within-type changes with their relative influence varying between regions, months and climate variables.

  9. Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pielke, R.A., Sr.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    2002-01-01

    We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

  10. Recent trend analysis of mean air temperature in Greece based on homogenized data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamara, A.; Argiriou, A. Α.; Anadranistakis, M.

    2015-08-01

    Numerous studies analyze the temperature variations in the Mediterranean area due to the anticipated impact of climate change in this part of the world. A number of studies examined the temperature climate in Greece, but few are based on a large number of synoptic stations covering all regions and climatic zones and even fewer are based on homogenized data set series, despite the fact that climatological studies must use high-quality homogeneous data series. The present work reviews previous studies dealing with climatic changes in Greece and addresses changes of mean air temperature, based on a large set of homogenized data from 52 synoptic stations. A statistically significant negative trend during 1960-1976 and a positive one during 1977-2004 were revealed. During 1960-1976, the lowest negative annual temperature trend is observed in Crete. During 1977-2004, the northern region of Greece was characterized by prominent annual warming, whereas the north and central Aegean Sea and the semi-mountainous area were characterized by the lowest warming. All stations are characterized by high seasonal trends in summer; the most extreme trends are observed in the northern and eastern regions and in the Attica area. Positive temperature trends occur from May to October, while negative trends dominate from November to February. The most pronounced warming is recorded in June and July, and the most strongly decreasing trend occurs in November. Annual temperature trends in northern Greece follow the hemispheric pattern, and the overall summer warming in Greece is greater than the hemisphere's.

  11. Detection of trends in days with extreme temperatures in Iran from 1961 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araghi, Alireza; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammad; Adamowski, Jan

    2015-05-01

    Human health and comfort, crop productivity, water resource availability, as well as other critical hydrological, climatological, and ecological parameters are heavily influenced by trends in daily temperature maxima and minima (T d max, T d min, respectively). Using Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall tests, trends in the number of days when T d max ? 30 C or T d min ? 0 C, over the period of 1961 to 2010, were examined for 30 synoptic meteorological stations in Iran. For 67 % of stations, days when T d min ? 0 C showed a significant negative trend, while only 40 % of stations showed a significant positive trend in days when T d max ? 30 C. The upward trend in T d max became significant between 1967 and 1975, according to the station, while the downward trend in T d min became significant between 1962 and 1974 for the same stations. Changes in precipitation type across most parts of the country show a high correlation with these temperature trends, especially with the negative trend in T d min. This suggests that future climatological and hydrological alterations within the country, along with ensuing climatic issues (e.g., change in precipitation, drought, etc.) will require a great deal more attention.

  12. Coatings for high-temperature structural materials: Trends and opportunities

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-31

    This book assesses the state of the art of coatings materials and processes for gas-turbine blades and vanes, determines potential applications of coatings in high-temperature environments, identifies needs for improved coatings in terms of performance enhancements, design considerations, and fabrication processes, assesses durability of advanced coating systems in expected service environments, and discusses the required inspection, repair, and maintenance methods. The promising areas for research and development of materials and processes for improved coating systems and the approaches to increased coating standardization are identified, with an emphasis on materials and processes with the potential for improved performance, quality, reproducibility, or manufacturing cost reduction.

  13. Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in circulation types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleig, A. K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; James, P.; Hisdal, H.; Stahl, K.

    2014-11-01

    Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. The relative importance of circulation changes (i.e. trends in circulation type frequencies) as opposed to trends in the hydrothermal properties of circulation types (within-type trends) on precipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthly basis. Gridded precipitation and temperature data originate from the Watch Forcing Dataset and circulation types (CTs) are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen. Relatively high influence of circulation changes are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends in northern Europe and drying in the South. Simultaneously, in particular dry CTs get warmer first in south-western Europe in November/December and affecting most of Europe in March/April. Strong influence of circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general, circulation influence affects climate trends in north-western Europe stronger than the South-East. The exact locations of the strongest influence of circulation changes vary with time of the year and to some degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year and across the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are caused by a combination of circulation changes and within-type changes with their relative influence varying between regions, months and climate variables.

  14. The non-linear relationship between nerve conduction velocity and skin temperature.

    PubMed Central

    Todnem, K; Knudsen, G; Riise, T; Nyland, H; Aarli, J A

    1989-01-01

    Median motor and sensory nerves were examined in 20 healthy subjects. Superficial stimulating and recording electrodes were used, and the nerves were examined at natural skin temperature, after cooling and after heating of the arm. The conduction velocity for the fastest and slow conducting sensory fibres (temperature range 17-37 degrees C), and for the fastest conducting motor fibres (temperature range 19-38 degrees C) increased non-linearly with increase in skin temperature. Similarly, distal motor latencies increased non-linearly with decrease in skin temperature. The effect of temperature was most pronounced in the low temperature range, and change in conduction velocity per degree centigrade was reduced toward higher skin temperature. Sensory nerve response duration increased linearly with decline in skin temperature. Sensory and motor amplitude did not show any significant relation to skin temperature. PMID:2738592

  15. Linear and nonlinear effects of dominant drivers on the trends in global and regional land carbon uptake: 1959 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xuanze; Rayner, Peter J.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Silver, Jeremy D.; Lu, Xingjie; Pak, Bernard; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2016-02-01

    Changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, surface temperature, or precipitation have been identified to have significantly contributed to the estimated increase in the terrestrial carbon uptake rate over the last few decades; however, those analyses did not consider the interactions. Using the Australian community land surface model (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange), we performed factorial experiments to quantify the importance of external drivers (climate drivers and atmospheric CO2) and their interactions on annual terrestrial carbon uptake (FL), excluding land use change and fires, from 1959 to 2013. Our model simulations show a trend of 0.025 ± 0.015 Pg C yr-2 (or ~1.5% yr-1) in global FL for 1959-2013, which is largely attributed to the positive influences of the increased atmospheric CO2 (0.050 ± 0.001 Pg C yr-2) and negative influences of changes in climate (-0.026 ± 0.014 Pg C yr-2). Globally, the contribution of the nonlinear effects of dominant drivers to the simulated trend in FL is small (<10%) but can be significant regionally (>35%), particularly in the boreal forests and semiarid regions. The interactions between temperature and CO2 or temperature and precipitation can dominate the simulated trend in parts of Europe, southeastern North America, southern China, and some semiarid regions. This modeling result suggests that the effects of nonlinear interactions of drivers on the trend of land carbon uptake should be considered in future studies.

  16. Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

    2015-05-01

    The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers blooming sequentially one after another. This enables local governments to earn substantial sightseeing revenues by hosting festivals featuring spring flowers. Furthermore, beekeepers move from the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula all the way northward in a quest to secure spring flowers as nectar sources for a sustained period of time. However, areal differences in flowering dates of flower species are narrowing, which has economic consequences. Analysis of data on flowering dates of forsythia ( Forsythia koreana) and cherry blossom ( Prunus serrulata), two typical spring flower species, as observed for the past 60 years at six weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicated that the difference between the flowering date of forsythia, the earliest blooming flower in spring, and cherry blossom, which flowers later than forsythia, was 14 days on average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, compared with 11 days for the period 1981-2010. In 2014, the gap narrowed further to 7 days, making it possible in some locations to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time. Synchronized flowering of these two flower species is due to acceleration of flowering due to an abnormally high spring temperature, and this was more pronounced in the later-blooming cherry blossom than forsythia. While cherry blossom flowering dates across the nation ranged from March 31 to April 19 (an areal difference of 20 days) for the 1951-1980 normal year, the difference ranged from March 29 to April 12 (an areal difference of 16 days) for the 1981-2010 normal year, and in 2014, the flowering dates spanned March 25 and March 30 (an areal difference of 6 days). In the case of forsythia, the gap was narrower than in cherry blossoms. Climate change in the Korean Peninsula, reflected by rapid temperature hikes in late spring in contrast to a slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release, likely brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossom. We derived a thermal time-based flowering model from this analysis and used it to predict the flowering dates of forsythia and cherry blossom in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species, showing a feasibility of prediction under the changing climate.

  17. Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kattel, Dambaru Ballab; Yao, Tandong

    2013-02-01

    Insufficient long-term in situ observations and complex topographic conditions pose major problems in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. Presented here is three decades (1980-2009) of data on annual maximum, minimum and average temperature trends from 13 mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas. The stations are located at elevations between 1304 and 2566 m above sea level and with varied topography. Spatial analyses of the average temperature trend show warming in most of the stations. The magnitude of warming is higher for maximum temperatures, while minimum temperatures exhibit larger variability such as positive, negative or no change. These results are consistent with patterns reported in some parts of the Indian subcontinent and Upper Indus Basin, but different from conditions on the Tibetan Plateau (China), where the warming of minimum temperatures is more prominent than that of the maximum temperatures. From the temporal variations, a dramatic increase in temperature is observed in the latest decade, particularly in the average and maximum temperatures. The results from the cumulative sum chart analyses suggest that the thermal regime shifted in 1997. The dramatic enhancement of average temperature in the last decade is strongly consistent with the result of contemporary studies of the surrounding regions, where warming is attributed to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. However, as in the western Himalayas and the Upper Indus Basin, the mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas show variability in temperature trends, particularly for the minimum temperature. This inhomogeneous trend is likely ascribed to the differences in topography and microclimatic regime of the observed stations.

  18. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  19. Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eccel, E.; Ghielmi, L.; Granitto, P.; Barbiero, R.; Grazzini, F.; Cesari, D.

    2007-05-01

    Model Output Statistics (MOS) refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511-L60 and LAMI-3). Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself.

  20. Is there a trend in extremely high river temperature for the next decades? A case study for France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huguet, F.; Parey, S.; Dacunha-Castelle, D.; Malek, F.

    2008-02-01

    After 2003's summer heat wave, Electricit de France created a global plan called "heat wave-dryness". In this context, the present study tries to estimate high river temperatures for the next decades, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic evolutions. To do it, a specific methodology based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is applied. In particular, a trend analysis of water temperature data is done and included in EVT used. The studied river temperatures consist of mean daily temperatures for 27 years measured near the French power plants (between 1977 and 2003), with four series for the Rhne river, four for the Loire river and a few for other rivers. There are also three series of mean daily temperatures computed by a numerical model. For each series, we have applied statistical extreme value modelling. Because of thermal inertia, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is corrected by the medium cluster length, which represents thermal inertia of water during extremely hot events. The ? and ? parameters of the GEV distributions are taken as polynomial or continuous piecewise linear functions of time. The best functions for ? and ? parameters are chosen using Akaike criterion based on likelihood and some physical checking. For all series, the trend is positive for ? and not significant for ?, over the last 27 years. However, we cannot assign this evolution only to the climatic change for the Rhne river because the river temperature is the resultant of several causes: hydraulic or atmospheric, natural or related to the human activity. For the other rivers, the trend for ? could be assigned to the climatic change more clearly. Furthermore, the sample is too short to provide reliable return levels estimations for return periods exceeding thirty years. Still, quantitative return levels could be compared with physical models for example.

  1. The effect of wind on long-term summer water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Li-Feng; Onishi, Ryo; Takahashi, Keiko

    2015-06-01

    The effect of wind on summer water temperature trends in a semi-closed bay (Tokyo Bay, Japan) is examined through several numerical experiments using a high-resolution three-dimensional ocean model. The model is executed under no-wind and uniform southerly/northerly wind conditions, and monthly mean currents and temperature distributions and heat transport in Tokyo Bay for July are calculated. The model results show that wind has a significant effect on heat transport and temperature distribution in the bay. (1) When a southerly wind prevails northward cool water transport intensifies while southward warm water transport declines, thus decreasing the water temperature in the central bay area while increasing temperature at the bay head. (2) A northerly wind has an opposing effect and decreases the water temperature in coastal bay head area while increase the temperature along the southwest coast. The results also suggest that the trend of increasing southerly wind amplitude may have affected water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay from 1979 to 1997. The model results demonstrated that the an intensified southerly wind lowers water temperatures in most areas of the bay by enhancing upwelling and open ocean-water intrusion near the bay mouth while increases temperatures in the bottom layer of the bay head by suppressing southward warm water transport.

  2. Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wijngaarden, W. A.

    2015-11-01

    Temperatures were examined at 118 stations located in the Arctic and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s. Nearly all stations exhibited warming trends. For each station, the temperature relative to the average value during 1961-1990 was found. The resulting temperature change averaged over the Arctic stations was plotted. For the period 1820-2014, trends were found for the January, July and annual temperatures of 1.0, 0.0 and 0.7 °C per century, respectively. Decadal variations are evident and much of the temperature increase occurred during the 1990s. Over the past century, Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada have experienced somewhat greater warming than Eastern Canada, Greenland and Northern Europe. The temperature change experienced by the Arctic stations during the last two centuries closely tracks that found for the European stations.

  3. An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franquist, Eric S.

    Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of greenhouse gas emissions as the most likely cause.

  4. Analysis of temperature trends, heat and cold waves in Central Italy (1952-2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romano, E.; Volpi, E.; Stefanucci, F.

    2012-04-01

    Most of the recent studies on climate change agree in assessing a positive global trend of the mean temperature. However, analysis of temperature data at basin scale appears to be quite complicated because of several factors affecting measures: location, slope exposition, distance from the sea, etc., resulting in a high meteorological variability also at short distances. In this study we present an analysis of minimum and maximum daily temperature data registered in Umbria Region (Tiber Basin, Central Italy) for the period 1952-2008 in order to estimate mean trends and possible increases in the "extreme events" such us "heat waves" and "cold waves". Among the about 80 stations available for the study period, only those ones with at least 45 years of data, even not consecutive, have been retained, resulting in a data set of only 5 stations. Data have been analyzed at annual and seasonal time scale, taking into account the spatial trend due to the elevation. The spatial correlation among stations appear to be quite high, but not related to the reciprocal distances. The time trend of each temperature time series has been studied by means of classical trend tests (Mann-Kendall and t-Student test). Results are comparable for the two tests but not unique for minimum and maximum temperature. Concerning Tmax, 3 out of 5 stations present a positive trend in the last 30 years, ranging from 0.02 to 0.09 C/y, while the remaining two stations do not present any significant trend; however, the same stations show a negative trend over the period 1960-1990. This results in a positive trend over the whole period 1952-2008 ranging from 0.02 to 0.03 C/y. Concerning Tmin, 3 out of 5 of the study stations do not present any statistically significant trend over the last 30 years, while one station shows a negative trend (- 0.05 C/y) and one a positive trend (+ 0.07 C/y); moreover, 3 out of 5 stations have a significant positive trend in the period 1952-2008 (the annual temperature gradient ranging from 0.02 to 0.04 C/y), 1 station shows a significant negative trend (- 0.02 C/y). The spatial dishomogeneity in the signal suggests that anthropic factors could influence very much the variations of temperatures in the last 60 years, preventing from using such data, like they are, as climatic indicators. The occurrence of "heat waves" has been analyzed considering the persistence of temperatures higher than the 90-th percentile for 5 consecutive days; analogously, the occurrence of "cold wave" has been found out considering the persistence of temperatures lower than the 10-th percentile for 5 consecutive days. Results indicate that in the last 20 years the number of heat waves has significantly increased with respect to the previous period, while an increasing of the cold waves has not been enhanced.

  5. Seasonality and trends of snow-cover, vegetation index, and temperature in northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dye, Dennis G.; Tucker, Compton J.

    2003-04-01

    We examine seasonal variability in snow-cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and temperature in a broad region of northern Eurasia, and the spatial and temporal correspondence among trends in these variables between 1982 and 1999. Our results support the contention that the previously reported springtime ``greening'' trend in northern Eurasian land areas arises from a combination of: (1) the direct effects of declining snow-cover on surface spectral reflectance and NDVI, and (2) enhanced vegetation growth and green biomass stimulated by warmer air temperatures and potentially greater vegetation absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the period of annual peak solar irradiance.

  6. A high-temperature double-mode piezoelectric ultrasonic linear motor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiaotian; Chen, Jianguo; Chen, Zhijiang; Dong, Shuxiang

    2012-08-01

    A miniature piezoelectric ultrasonic linear motor (piezoelectric vibrator sizes: 4.7 13.5 2 mm3) has been studied for precise actuation at 200 C high-temperature. This piezoelectric linear motor was made of (1-x)BiScO3-xPbTiO3 piezoelectric ceramic with a high curie temperature (428 C) and it was operated in first longitudinal and the second bending double-mode. Our experimental results showed that the linear motor moves smoothly at the temperature as high as 200 C with a driving force of 0.35 N and a speed up to 42 mm/s.

  7. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, Daniel E.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L.; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-06-01

    Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns.

  8. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Horton, Daniel E; Johnson, Nathaniel C; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2015-06-25

    Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns. PMID:26108856

  9. Reconciling 20th Century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, A.; Newman, M.

    2012-12-01

    Large discrepancies exist between 20th century tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature trends determined from current reconstructions. There is likewise some uncertainty about whether the related atmospheric Walker circulation has weakened or not in the twentieth century. These discrepancies prevent an unambiguous verification and validation of climate models used for projections of future climate change. In this talk I will present results from a recent study that demonstrates that a more consistent and robust trend among all the reconstructions can be found by filtering each dataset to remove ENSO, where ENSO is represented not by a single index time series but as an evolving dynamical process. That is, the discrepancies appear largely the result of different estimates of ENSO variability in each reconstruction. The robust ENSO-residual trend pattern represents a strengthening of the equatorial Pacific temperature gradient since 1900, due to a systematic warming trend in the warm pool and weak cooling in the cold tongue. Similarly filtering sea level pressure to remove ENSO variability results in a trend that is inconsistent with the suggestion of a systematic weakening of the Walker circulation over the same period. Additionally, I will show that none of the disparate estimates of post-1900 total eastern equatorial Pacific SST trends are larger than can be generated by statistically stationary, stochastically forced empirical models that reproduce ENSO evolution in each reconstruction.Figure 1: ENSO-residual SST trends, in units of C/100 years, 1900-2010. (A) HadISST. (B) ERSST. (C) COBE. (D) KAPLAN. Stippling indicates trends are significant beyond the 95% confidence level based on ENSO-residual time series from LIMs constructed with lag covariance and noise statistics from each dataset.

  10. Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, Arun; Khare, Deepak; Kundu, Sananda

    2015-10-01

    Climate change is a serious issue resulting in global variation in the temperature and precipitation pattern. In this study, changes in rainfall trend in India for 141 years (1871-2011) and temperature trend for 107 years (1901-2007) were analysed. The annual, seasonal and monthly changes in different regions of India were investigated to see the climate change in different parts of the country, and the net excess or deficit of rainfall and temperature in India was obtained. Statistical non-parametric tests were performed to see the trend magnitude with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope. Mann-Whitney-Pettitt (MWP) test was used for probable break point detection in the series, and change percentage was calculated over 30 sub-divisions and 7 broad regions. The results indicate decreasing annual and monsoon rainfall of India in most of the sub-divisions, and temperature fluctuations were observed in all the places. Temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean) were showing a significant increase, particularly in the winter and post-monsoon time. Wide variation was noticed all over India in the case of the minimum temperature. Variation was also observed at different spatial scales of sub-divisions and regions. This study gives the net impact of climate change in India which shows net excess of temperature and net deficit of rainfall.

  11. Middle atmosphere temperature trend and solar cycle revealed by long-term Rayleigh lidar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Tao; Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stuart; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Dou, Xiankang

    2011-06-01

    The long-term temperature profile data sets obtained by Rayleigh lidars at three different northern latitudes within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change were used to derive the middle atmosphere temperature trend and response to the 11 year solar cycle. The lidars were located at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5N) the Table Mountain Facility, California (TMF, 34.4N) and the Observatoire de Haute Provence, France (OHP, 43.9N). A stratospheric cooling trend of 2-3 K/decade was found for both TMF and OHP, and a trend of ?0.5 0.5 K/decade was found at MLO. In the mesosphere, the trend at TMF (3-4 K/decade) was much larger than that at both OHP and MLO (<1 K/decade). The lidar trends agree well with earlier satellite and rocketsonde trends in the stratosphere, but a substantial discrepancy was found in the mesosphere. The cooling trend in the upper stratosphere at OHP during 1981-1994 (2-3 K/decade) was much larger than that during 1995-2009 (?0.8 K/decade), coincident with the slightly increasing upper stratospheric ozone density after 1995. Significant temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle was found. The correlation was positive in both the stratosphere and mesosphere at MLO and TMF. At OHP a wintertime negative response in the upper stratosphere and a positive response in the middle mesosphere were observed during 1981-1994, but the opposite behavior was found during 1995-2009. This behavior may not be a direct solar cycle response at all but is likely related to an apparent response to decadal variability (e.g., volcanoes, modulated random occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings) that is more complex.

  12. Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunkerton, Timothy J.

    2000-01-01

    Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

  13. Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comisc, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.

  14. Fluctuating temperatures and ectotherm growth: distinguishing non-linear and time-dependent effects.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Higgins, Jessica K; Augustine, Kate E

    2015-07-01

    Most terrestrial ectotherms experience diurnal and seasonal variation in temperature. Because thermal performance curves are non-linear, mean performance can differ in fluctuating and constant thermal environments. However, time-dependent effects--effects of the order and duration of exposure to temperature--can also influence mean performance. We quantified the non-linear and time-dependent effects of diurnally fluctuating temperatures for larval growth rates in the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta L., with four main results. First, the shape of the thermal performance curve for growth rate depended on the duration of exposure: for example, optimal temperature and thermal breadth were greater for growth rates measured over short (24?h during the last instar) compared with long (the entire period of larval growth) time periods. Second, larvae reared in diurnally fluctuating temperatures had significantly higher optimal temperatures and maximal growth rates than larvae reared in constant temperatures. Third, for larvae maintained at three mean temperatures (20, 25 and 30C) and three diurnal temperature ranges (0, 5 and 10C), diurnal fluctuations had opposite effects on mean growth rates at low versus high mean temperature. Fourth, both short- and long-term thermal performance curves yielded poor predictions of the non-linear effects of fluctuating temperature on mean growth rates (compared with our experimental results) at higher mean temperatures. Our results suggest caution in using constant temperature studies to model the consequences of variable thermal environments. PMID:25987738

  15. October Antarctic temperature and total ozone trends from 1979-1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, Paul A.; Schoeberl, Mark R.

    1986-01-01

    The morphology of temperature trends in the south polar stratosphere from 1979-1985 is detailed. A significant cooling has occurred in the stratosphere over this period. South polar October mean temperatures have declined 18 K at 24 km over the seven-year period. A large fraction of this decline occurs as a result of including 1979 temperatures in the trend. The years 1979 and 1982 differ from other years in that they include large mid-October wave events which produce significantly warmer polar temperatures. Nevertheless, a significant temperature decline has still occurred in the stratosphere even when the dynamically active years are not included. Comparing two relatively dynamically quiet years, 1980 and 1985, the largest temperature decrease in the 30 mb temperature field occurs not at the pole but in the subpolar temperature maximum centered near 60 deg S. The changes in temperature of both the maximum and the polar low regions correlate fairly well with total ozone changes observed by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrophotometer.

  16. Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

    2015-06-01

    This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

  17. The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.270.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

  18. Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960-2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jastram, John D.; Rice, Karen C.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses indicators that represent the state or trend of certain environmental or societal conditions to track and better understand the effects of changes in the Earths climate (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Updates to these indicators are published biennially by the EPA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA, has completed analyses of air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region to be included as an indicator in a future release of the EPA report.

  19. Combined land/sea surface-air-temperature trends, 1949-1972

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, R.S.

    1982-04-01

    A major deficiency in most previous studies of fluctuations in the earth's climate based on air temperature records has been the dearth of data from oceanic areas and the Southern Hemisphere. This study analyzes a unique collection of ship-based observations of surface air temperature assembled by the UK Meteorological Office in parallel with the station-based dataset developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research from the publications World Weather Records and Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Based on this much more geographically comprehensive database, it is concluded that, during the 24-year period 1949 to 1972, no statistically significant warming or cooling trends were evident in the time series of globally averaged surface air temperature measurements. However, temperature trends did vary latitudinally, with significant cooling in northern extra-tropical latitudes, no trend in equatorial latitudes, and significant but not homogeneous warming in southern extra-tropical latitudes. Time series of air temperatures over land and sea exhibited qualitatively similar behavior over the period 1949 to 1972, indicative of both the comparable quality of the two datasets and the probable lack of significant widespread bias in the land-based measurements due to urban development. The results of this study underscore the need for dense and geographically comprehensive measurements from both land and ocean areas and from both hemispheres in analyzing the global behavior of the earth's climate.

  20. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  1. Uncovering Local Trends in Genetic Effects of Multiple Phenotypes via Functional Linear Models.

    PubMed

    Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Zaykin, Dmitri V; Barondess, David A; Tong, Xiaoren; Jadhav, Sneha; Lu, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Recent technological advances equipped researchers with capabilities that go beyond traditional genotyping of loci known to be polymorphic in a general population. Genetic sequences of study participants can now be assessed directly. This capability removed technology-driven bias toward scoring predominantly common polymorphisms and let researchers reveal a wealth of rare and sample-specific variants. Although the relative contributions of rare and common polymorphisms to trait variation are being debated, researchers are faced with the need for new statistical tools for simultaneous evaluation of all variants within a region. Several research groups demonstrated flexibility and good statistical power of the functional linear model approach. In this work we extend previous developments to allow inclusion of multiple traits and adjustment for additional covariates. Our functional approach is unique in that it provides a nuanced depiction of effects and interactions for the variables in the model by representing them as curves varying over a genetic region. We demonstrate flexibility and competitive power of our approach by contrasting its performance with commonly used statistical tools and illustrate its potential for discovery and characterization of genetic architecture of complex traits using sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study. PMID:27027515

  2. Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, G. I.; Aleynik, D. L.; Mee, L. D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25 climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15-20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.

  3. Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, G. I.; Aleynik, D. L.; Mee, L. D.

    2010-05-01

    There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25 climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15-20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.

  4. Upper-air temperature change trends above arid region of Northwest China during 1960-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zhongsheng; Chen, Yaning; Xu, Jianhua; Bai, Ling

    2015-04-01

    This study summarized upper-air temperature change trends based on the monthly datasets of 14 sounding stations in the arid region of Northwest China during 1960-2009. Over the investigated period, the change in upper-air temperature measured at eight standard pressure levels shows that an obvious warming at 850-400 hPa, which decreases with altitude, changes to an apparent cooling at 300-50 hPa. There is a positive correlation between the surface and 850-300-hPa temperatures, but a negative correlation between the surface and 200-50-hPa temperatures. Over the full 1960-2009 record, patterns of statistically significant mid-lower tropospheric warming and upper tropospheric and mid-lower stratospheric cooling are clearly evident. Also, the annual temperature cycle indicates that the peak temperature shifts from July in the troposphere to February in the mid-lower stratosphere, suggesting the importance of seasonal trend analysis. We found that the warming in the mid-lower troposphere is more pronounced during the summer, autumn, and winter, whereas the cooling in the upper troposphere and mid-lower stratosphere is larger during the summer and autumn. Furthermore, there are also many regional differences in the upper-air temperature change, regardless of both season and layer.

  5. Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, T.R.

    2006-01-01

    Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. Thrust characteristics of a linear oscillatory actuator at a low temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Aoki, Akio; Watada, Masaya; Torii, Susumu; Yamane, Kimitaka; Ebihara, Daiki

    1998-07-01

    The low temperature liquids pump is expected to be used in the many kinds of fields. The low temperature liquids pump must obtain a larger thrust and minimal heating of the low temperature liquid in the tank, and is applied to a liquid hydrogen pump and a liquid natural gas pump. A liquid hydrogen pump with the LOA is used for automobiles fueled by a liquid hydrogen. This paper reports the static thrust characteristics of a linear oscillatory actuator at low and normal temperatures. The static thrust with respect to position was measured with a variable exciting current. Normal temperature (25 C) was maintained using water cooling, and low temperature was offered using liquid nitrogen. The detent force at low temperature was larger than that at normal temperature. For magnetomotive forces at 5 kA and 3 kA, the static thrust of low temperature was less than that at normal temperature.

  7. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning

    2015-05-01

    By investigating temperature and precipitation data from eight meteorological stations in the Syr Darya Basin (SDB) during 1881-2011 and 1891-2011, we analyzed trends using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Our results indicated that there was a notable increasing trend in annual temperature of 0.14 C/decade ( P < 0.05) and step change points in 1989 ( P < 0.05). Similarly, annual precipitation showed a significant rising trend ( P < 0.001) at a rate of 4.44 mm/decade and step change points in 1991 ( P < 0.05). Overall, temperature and precipitation increases were more rapid in the plains than in the mountain areas. Furthermore, we found that temperature in the SDB region is strongly associated with the Asian Polar Vortex Area Index (APVAI, correlation coefficient: R = -0.701, P < 0.01) rather than with carbon dioxide emissions, especially in the plains area. For precipitation, the correlation coefficient is strongly associated with the Tibet Plateau Index (TPI, R = 0.490, P < 0.01), followed by the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI, R = 0.343, P < 0.01), and the correlations in the plains are higher than those in the mountains. It is anticipated that the results of this study will further the understanding surrounding climate change in the SDB.

  8. Ratios of Record High to Record Low Temperatures in Europe Show an Accelerating Trend Since 2000 Despite a Slowdown in Mean Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beniston, M.

    2014-12-01

    The present study has examined the behavior of extreme high and low temperatures in Euirope since the mid-20th century, in terms of the ratio of number of days per year with record Tmax and record Tmin. The investigations have shown that there has been a clear and massive increase in the number of high Tmax: low Tmin ratios in the most recent decade of the 1951-2013 temperature record for 30 selected observation stations in Europe. This sharp increase is seen to occur despite an apparent hiatus - or at least a reduction in the rate of warming - since the early 2000s, as observed not only in Europe but on a hemispheric basis too. The explosion of record high:record low temperature ratios since 2000, despite relatively small increases in mean temperatures in the last 10-15 years of the observational record, can be explained by a non-linear (quadratic) relation between mean temperatures and the Tmax:Tmin record ratios. It is suggested here that the increases are probably a consequence of increasing dryness during the summer in the Mediterranean region (where today there are on average 30 more dry days than in the 1950s), and a reduction in the cold season conducive to snow days in Arctic summers and Northern European springs (with up to 40 days less freezing days than 60 years previously). Both effects can serve to amplify positive temperature feedbacks in the lower atmosphere that result in strong increases in the number of Tmax record high temperatures and correspondingly strong reductions in the number of Tmin record low temperatures.

  9. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  10. A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2007-01-01

    Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

  11. High temperature garnet growth in New England: regional temperature-time trends revealed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, N.; Ostwald, C.; Chu, X.; Baxter, E. F.; Ague, J. J.; Eckert, J. O.

    2013-12-01

    A series of localized ultrahigh-temperature (UHT)/high-temperature (HT) granulite facies regions have been identified within the regional amphibolite facies metamorphic zone of the Central Maine Terrane stretching from north-central New Hampshire, through central Massachusetts, and into northeastern Connecticut. Here, we aim to constrain the age and peak temperature of metamorphism at three localities within this region: Bristol, NH, Phillipston, MA and Willington, CT. Garnet-forming reactions are linked directly to peak metamorphic temperatures through thermodynamic modeling and/or Zr-in-rutile thermometry. Precise garnet geochronology allows us to identify the timing of these peak temperatures, as well as the duration of garnet growth. Geochronologic and thermodynamic work was done on 12 samples collected throughout a ~5 km2 metamorphic 'hotspot' previously identified in Bristol, NH (Chamberlain and Rumble, 1988; Journal of Petrology). The highest temperature assemblage within this hotspot is characterized by the presence of garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + cordierite and reached temperatures >820οC. The lowest temperature periphery of the hotspot is characterized by sillimanite + muscovite + K-feldspar + minor garnet and reached a maximum temperature of 650οC. Bulk garnet ages from samples within the hotspot range significantly from at least 400.0 × 2.5 Ma to 352.7 × 1.8 Ma with the youngest ages associated with the lower temperature samples. This collection of ages indicates a prolonged period (~50 Ma) of >650οC temperatures interspersed by period(s) of garnet growth. Zoned garnet geochronology will help reveal whether garnet growth and related heating was continuous or episodic. Further south, in Phillipston, MA, zoned garnet geochronology performed on a 2.5 cm diameter garnet porphyroblast indicates garnet growth spanning 389 - 363 Ma, reaching peak temperatures at the end of that time span of 920-940οC, followed by a younger event recorded in smaller 1-3mm garnet crystals at 351 Ma (which may also reflect resetting of the earlier event), reaching similar temperatures of 920-960οC. These temperatures were obtained by Zr-in-rutile thermometry performed on rutile inclusions within the garnet. Even farther south, in the UHT zone around Willington, CT, temperatures of at least 1000οC were determined using Zr-in-rutile thermometry on rutile inclusions in garnet and reintegration of ternary feldspar compositions (Ague et al., 2013; Geology). The garnet age for a representative UHT sample from this site is 340.3 × 1.7 Ma. The geochronologic data presented here indicates a prolonged period of UHT/HT garnet growth within the Central Maine Terrane, beginning at ~400 Ma in Bristol, NH and ending at ~340 Ma in Willington, CT. Peak temperatures are >820οC in NH, >950οC in MA, and ~1000οC in CT, resulting in a regional pattern of increasing temperature with decreasing age from north to south across this 250 km long region.

  12. Are there evidences of altitudinal effects of air temperature trends in the European Alps 1820-2013?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoener, W.; Auer, I.; Chimani, B.; Garnekind, M.; Haslinger, K.

    2013-12-01

    We use the HISTALP data set (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) in order to assess the elevation dependency of air temperature trends within the European Alps. The evidence of altitudinal effects of the climate warming (with higher sensitivity of high mountain regions to warming) is a key statement, or at least key hypothesis, in many studies. The high relevance of such statement resp. hypothesis is obvious if one consider the impacts resulting from such fact, such as snow- and glacier melting and related effects for mountain hydrology. The HISTALP data set stands out with respect to its series lengths and its high level of homogenisation. Interestingly, the HISTALP temperature data show no clear altitudinal dependency of warming or cooling trends within the period 1820-2013. Additionally, a rather homogenous temporal trend could be observed within the entire Greater Alpine Region (GAR). Because HISTALP include also air pressure and vapour pressure series, we could compare our measured air temperatures with mean-column air temperatures, computed by the barometric formula, which were derived from the independently measured air pressure data (using vapour pressure to account for the atmospheric water content) at low resp. high elevations. Computed mean column temperatures are in good agreement with observed temperatures, indicating generally homogenous temporal temperature trend behaviour at different elevations. Our finding contradicts several results from climate modelling attempts and also other studies investigating Alpine temperature trends. We conclude that, whereas modelling results are still limited in the assessment of altitudinal effect of temperature trends from missing atmospheric processes captured by the models, the difference of the trend behaviour compared to other analyses of instrumental air temperatures comes from the seasonal base taken as the basis for trend estimation. It appears that opposite trend in spring and autumn for the period 1980-2000, respectively, levels each other out for the annual temperature trend.

  13. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature parameters over Sutlej river basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Dharmaveer; Glupta, R. D.; Jain, Sanjay K.

    2015-02-01

    The annual and seasonal trend analysis of different surface temperature parameters (average, maximum, minimum and diurnal temperature range) has been done for historical (1971-2005) and future periods (2011-2099) in the middle catchment of Sutlej river basin, India. The future time series of temperature data has been generated through statistical downscaling from large scale predictors of CGCM3 and HadCM3 models under A2 scenario. Modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) chart have been used for detecting trend and sequential shift in time series of temperature parameters. The results of annual trend analysis for period of 1971-2005 show increasing as well as decreasing trends in average ( T Mean), maximum ( T Max), minimum ( T Min) temperature and increasing trends in Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) at different stations. But the annual trend analysis of downscaled data has revealed statistically significant (95% confidence level) rising trends in T Mean, T Max, T Min and falling trend in DTR for the period 2011-2099. The decreasing trend in DTR is due to higher rate of increase in T Min compared to T Max.

  14. Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

    2004-01-01

    Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

  15. Tropical temperature trends in Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations and the impact of uncertainties in observed SSTs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flannaghan, T. J.; Fueglistaler, S.; Held, I. M.; Po-Chedley, S.; Wyman, B.; Zhao, M.

    2014-12-01

    The comparison of trends in various climate indices in observations and models is of fundamental importance for judging the credibility of climate projections. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends have attracted particular attention as this comparison may suggest a model deficiency. One can think of this problem as composed of two parts: one focused on tropical surface temperature trends and the associated issues related to forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake and a second part focusing on connections between surface and tropospheric temperatures and the vertical profile of trends in temperature. Here we focus on the atmospheric component of the problem. We show that two ensembles of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory HiRAM model runs (similar results are shown for National Center for Atmospheric Research's CAM4 model) with different commonly used prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the HadISST1 and "Hurrell" data sets, have a difference in upper tropical tropospheric temperature trends (0.1 K/decade at 300 hPa for the period 1984-2008) that is about a factor 3 larger than expected from moist adiabatic scaling of the tropical average SST trend difference. We show that this surprisingly large discrepancy in temperature trends is a consequence of SST trend differences being largest in regions of deep convection. Further, trends, and the degree of agreement with observations, not only depend on SST data set and the particular atmospheric temperature data set but also on the period chosen for comparison. Due to the large impact on atmospheric temperatures, these systematic uncertainties in SSTs need to be resolved before the fidelity of climate models' tropical temperature trend profiles can be assessed.

  16. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  17. Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 1951-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Remm, Kalle

    2014-10-01

    Spatial distribution and trends in mean and absolute maximum and minimum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range were analysed at 47 stations in the eastern Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) during 1951-2010. Dependence of the studied variables on geographical factors (latitude, the Baltic Sea, land elevation) is discussed. Statistically significant increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were detected for March, April, July, August and annual values. At the majority of stations, the increase was detected also in February and May in case of maximum temperature and in January and May in case of minimum temperature. Warming was slightly higher in the northern part of the study area, i.e. in Estonia. Trends in the diurnal temperature range differ seasonally. The highest increasing trend revealed in April and, at some stations, also in May, July and August. Negative and mostly insignificant changes have occurred in January, February, March and June. The annual temperature range has not changed.

  18. Global and regional sea surface temperature trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milker, Y.; Rachmayani, R.; Weinkauf, M.; Prange, M.; Raitzsch, M.; Schulz, M.; Ku?era, M.

    2013-02-01

    The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time-frame and subjected 48 of them to an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~ 410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained 19% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~ 398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties > 1 C. In order to assess the effect of orbital forcing on MIS11 SST trends, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

  19. New Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature Re-Analysis (1982-2012): development, assessment and trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisano, Andrea; Nardelli, Bruno B.; Tronconi, Cristina; Santoleri, Rosalia; Rinaldi, Eleonora

    2015-04-01

    The long time series of reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data from 1982 to 2012 has been used to provide daily gap-free sea surface temperature (SST) maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution (4 km x 4 km spatial resolution). The interpolation of PFV52 data to L4 has been carried out by adapting CNR-ISAC-GOS near-real-time (NRT) SST processing chain (Buongiorno Nardelli et al., 2013) to the PFV52 dataset, and choosing a new covariance model. This new time series extend and improve previous reprocessed L4 Mediterranean SST datasets based on 1985-2005 Pathfinder V4 (Marullo et al., 2007) and largely used by Mediterranean science community. This new Mediterranean reprocessed time series has been validated using all the available in situ observations (drifter, CTD, XBT, ARGO floats) in order to quantify the product accuracy and to exclude any possibility of spurious trends. The time series analysis reveals a warming Mediterranean SST in the last 30 years with a mean SST trend of the order of 0.05 K/yr. The pattern of the SST trend reveals a strong eastward increasing surface warming with a maximum SST trend found south of Island of Crete.

  20. Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

    Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

  1. A Linearization Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor Using a Curvature Compensation Oscillator

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Hao-Wen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an area-efficient time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator for linearity enhancement with a ?40 to 120 C temperature range operability. The inverter-based smart temperature sensors can substantially reduce the cost and circuit complexity of integrated temperature sensors. However, a large curvature exists on the temperature-to-time transfer curve of the inverter-based delay line and results in poor linearity of the sensor output. For cost reduction and error improvement, a temperature-to-pulse generator composed of a ring oscillator and a time amplifier was used to generate a thermal sensing pulse with a sufficient width proportional to the absolute temperature (PTAT). Then, a simple but effective on-chip curvature compensation oscillator is proposed to simultaneously count and compensate the PTAT pulse with curvature for linearization. With such a simple structure, the proposed sensor possesses an extremely small area of 0.07 mm2 in a TSMC 0.35-?m CMOS 2P4M digital process. By using an oscillator-based scheme design, the proposed sensor achieves a fine resolution of 0.045 C without significantly increasing the circuit area. With the curvature compensation, the inaccuracy of ?1.2 to 0.2 C is achieved in an operation range of ?40 to 120 C after two-point calibration for 14 packaged chips. The power consumption is measured as 23 ?W at a sample rate of 10 samples/s. PMID:23989825

  2. All-Digital Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor with On-Chip Linearity Enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, Yi

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes the first all-digital on-chip linearity enhancement technique for improving the accuracy of the time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) smart temperature sensor. To facilitate on-chip application and intellectual property reuse, an all-digital time-domain smart temperature sensor was implemented using 90 nm Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Although the inverter-based temperature sensor has a smaller circuit area and lower complexity, two-point calibration must be used to achieve an acceptable inaccuracy. With the help of a calibration circuit, the influence of process variations was reduced greatly for one-point calibration support, reducing the test costs and time. However, the sensor response still exhibited a large curvature, which substantially affected the accuracy of the sensor. Thus, an on-chip linearity-enhanced circuit is proposed to linearize the curve and achieve a new linearity-enhanced output. The sensor was implemented on eight different Xilinx FPGA using 118 slices per sensor in each FPGA to demonstrate the benefits of the linearization. Compared with the unlinearized version, the maximal inaccuracy of the linearized version decreased from 5 °C to 2.5 °C after one-point calibration in a range of −20 °C to 100 °C. The sensor consumed 95 μW using 1 kSa/s. The proposed linearity enhancement technique significantly improves temperature sensing accuracy, avoiding costly curvature compensation while it is fully synthesizable for future Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) system. PMID:26840316

  3. All-Digital Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor with On-Chip Linearity Enhancement.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, Yi

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes the first all-digital on-chip linearity enhancement technique for improving the accuracy of the time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) smart temperature sensor. To facilitate on-chip application and intellectual property reuse, an all-digital time-domain smart temperature sensor was implemented using 90 nm Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Although the inverter-based temperature sensor has a smaller circuit area and lower complexity, two-point calibration must be used to achieve an acceptable inaccuracy. With the help of a calibration circuit, the influence of process variations was reduced greatly for one-point calibration support, reducing the test costs and time. However, the sensor response still exhibited a large curvature, which substantially affected the accuracy of the sensor. Thus, an on-chip linearity-enhanced circuit is proposed to linearize the curve and achieve a new linearity-enhanced output. The sensor was implemented on eight different Xilinx FPGA using 118 slices per sensor in each FPGA to demonstrate the benefits of the linearization. Compared with the unlinearized version, the maximal inaccuracy of the linearized version decreased from 5 °C to 2.5 °C after one-point calibration in a range of -20 °C to 100 °C. The sensor consumed 95 μW using 1 kSa/s. The proposed linearity enhancement technique significantly improves temperature sensing accuracy, avoiding costly curvature compensation while it is fully synthesizable for future Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) system. PMID:26840316

  4. Nonlinear trends of net primary production of plants, surface temperature and water index in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Krai by satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larko, Aleksandr; Shevyrnogov, Anatoly

    There are rather many studies that investigate temporal variations in productivity of boreal forests using remote sensing data. Most of those studies, however, analyzed rather short time series: either for the time period between 1982 and 2000 or for the time period since 2000 till now (after the new satellite systems were launched). Moreover, even for longer periods of time (1982-2008), researchers usually considered linear trends, which do not objectively represent actual changes. Most of the studies estimated area-averaged trends rather than spatial distribution of the dynamics of NPP or another parameter. Verification of the averaged results using ground-based data often leads to ambiguous conclusions. Thus, linear models are not suitable for analyzing time series in complex, spatially distributed systems. In this study, we analyzed spatial distribution of nonlinear trends of net primary production of plants for the area in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Krai (in the Yenisei River basin) between 2000 and 2012. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution of nonlinear trends of land surface temperature and water index (LSWI). NPP, temperature and water index values were calculated using the data from the MODIS scanner aboard the Terra satellite. Method used to decompose the time series was the nonlinear Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess (STL). STL is a filtering procedure for decomposing a seasonal time series into seasonal, trend, and remainder (noise) components. STL consists of a sequence of applications of the Loess smoother. Spatial distribution of NPP trends in the study area showed differences in NPP variations for different plant communities growing in this area for the time period between 2000 and 2013. Decomposition of NPP time series revealed regions where NPP decreased increased or was stable over this period of time. Correlation analysis of trends NPP, temperature and water index, revealed regions with strong direct and inverse temperature and humidity dependence in the vegetation grow. This approach also allows defining zones of anthropogenic impact and dynamics of reclaimed after natural and anthropogenic influences. This work was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project ? 13-06-00060

  5. Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Cowan, Tim; Cai, Wenju; Purich, Ariaan; Rotstayn, Leon; England, Matthew H

    2013-01-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends. PMID:23873281

  6. Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Cowan, Tim; Cai, Wenju; Purich, Ariaan; Rotstayn, Leon; England, Matthew H.

    2013-01-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends. PMID:23873281

  7. Problems with solar, volcanic, and ENSO attribution using multiple linear regression methods on temperatures from 1979-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masters, T.

    2013-11-01

    The effectiveness of multiple linear regression approaches in removing solar, volcanic, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences from the recent (1979-2012) surface temperature record is examined, using simple energy balance and global climate models (GCMs). These multiple regression methods are found to incorrectly diagnose the underlying signal - particularly in the presence of a deceleration - by generally overestimating the solar cooling contribution to an early 21st century pause while underestimating the warming contribution from the Mt. Pinatubo recovery. In fact, one-box models and GCMs suggest that the Pinatubo recovery has contributed more to post-2000 warming trends than the solar minimum has contributed to cooling over the same period. After adjusting the observed surface temperature record based on the natural-only multi-model mean from several CMIP5 GCMs and an empirical ENSO adjustment, a significant deceleration in the surface temperature increase is found, ranging in magnitude from -0.06 to -0.12 K dec-2 depending on model sensitivity and the temperature index used. This likely points to internal decadal variability beyond these solar, volcanic, and ENSO influences.

  8. The investigation of temperature trend in the Antarctic using GPS radio occultation technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, E.

    2010-12-01

    The Antarctic plays a vital role in the global atmospheric and oceanic systems and circulations because of its unique geographical and meteorological features. In recent years, abnormal melting of Antarctica ice sheet has been considered as a strong evidence of global warming. The phenomenon itself has significant feedback to the weather and climate processes. Climate change in the Antarctic and its impacts on global climate have drawn more and more attention of climatologists. Some studies have presented general warming trend of near-surface temperature in the Antarctic but cooling trends in some regions and seasons. Turner (2006) reported warming trend in the upper troposphere and cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. Most studies on the Antarctic meteorology and climatology predominately relies on only 18 weather stations operated by different countries. All these stations (expect the Amundsen-Scott station) are distributed along the coastline. The number and locations of these stations is inappropriate for the whole Antarctic continent area. Moreover, the extreme weather environment result in observations poor in both quantity and quality. The recently available atmospheric profiles derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) technique have demonstrated a great potential for advancing weather and climate studies, especially for remote areas such as the ocean and polar regions. The CHAMP mission provides nearly eight years (2001 - 2008) atmospheric data by using the GPS RO technique. COSMIC generates about 2,500 atmospheric profiles daily since 2006. Due to the global coverage of the GPS RO observations, a great number of high quality atmospheric information can be obtained over the Antarctic area. This study is to investigate the potential of using the GPS RO technique for the Antarctic climate monitoring. Although only eight-year CHAMP data available, the result has shown the significance of the GPS RO technique for reliable and long-term atmospheric monitoring. The new GPS-based technique overcomes many limitations of the current mainstream atmospheric observing techniques. The first part of this study is to evaluate GPS RO retrievals ) using radiosonde data in Antarctica. The mean difference in temperature between radiosonde and CHAMP is 0.065 C degree with a standard deviation of 1.272 C degree, and the mean difference for COSMIC data is 0.021 C degree with a standard deviation of 1.293 C degree. In the second section, a analysis of temperature change over the Antarctic region using CHAMP RO data is presented. Temperature trends at ten standard pressure levels and their seasonal and spatial variations are analyzed and discussed. Two notable findings are 1) warming trend was found in the West Antarctic and Peninsula and cooling trend in East Antarctica, and 2) general warming trend was identified in Winter but cooling in Summer. These findings are in agreement with previous studies that used the radiosonde and other satellite data. With future Global Navigation Satellite Systems and more GPS RO missions available, it is promising that the GPS RO technique will enhance the Antarctic climatological studies significantly.

  9. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Erickson III, David J; Branstetter, Marcia L; Parish, Esther S; Singh, Nagendra; Drake, John B; Buja, Lawrence

    2009-01-01

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

  10. Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Bruce T.; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hawkins, Ed; Syktus, Jozef

    2015-02-01

    Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

  11. Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keim, B.D.; Wilson, A.M.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.

    2003-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC's U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal-to century-scale climate change studies.

  12. Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-08-01

    Snow is a vital resource for a host of natural and human systems. Global warming is projected to drive widespread decreases in snow accumulation by the end of the century, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, when the planning and implementation of current adaptation responses are most relevant, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in regional and local precipitation trends. We use a large (40-member) single-model ensemble climate model experiment to examine the influence of precipitation variability on the direction and magnitude of near-term Northern Hemisphere snow trends. We find that near-term uncertainty in the sign of regional precipitation change does not cascade into uncertainty in the sign of regional snow accumulation change. Rather, temperature increases drive statistically robust consistency in the sign of future near-term snow accumulation trends, with all regions exhibiting reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, along with mean decreases in late-season snow accumulation. However, internal variability does create uncertainty in the magnitude of hemispheric and regional snow changes, including uncertainty as large as 33 % of the baseline mean. In addition, within the 40-member ensemble, many mid-latitude grid points exhibit at least one realization with a statistically significant positive trend in net snow accumulation, and at least one realization with a statistically significant negative trend. These results suggest that the direction of near-term snow accumulation change is robust at the regional scale, but that internal variability can influence the magnitude and direction of snow accumulation changes at the local scale, even in areas that exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio.

  13. Global and regional sea surface temperature trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milker, Y.; Rachmayani, R.; Weinkauf, M. F. G.; Prange, M.; Raitzsch, M.; Schulz, M.; Ku?era, M.

    2013-10-01

    The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties >1 C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

  14. Influence trend of temperature distribution in skin tissue generated by different exposure dose pulse laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shan, Ning; Wang, Zhijing; Liu, Xia

    2014-11-01

    Laser is widely applied in military and medicine fields because of its excellent capability. In order to effectively defend excess damage by laser, the thermal processing theory of skin tissue generated by laser should be carried out. The heating rate and thermal damage area should be studied. The mathematics model of bio-tissue heat transfer that is irradiated by laser is analyzed. And boundary conditions of bio-tissue are discussed. Three layer FEM grid model of bio-tissue is established. The temperature rising inducing by pulse laser in the tissue is modeled numerically by adopting ANSYS software. The changing trend of temperature in the tissue is imitated and studied under the conditions of different exposure dose pulse laser. The results show that temperature rising in the tissue depends on the parameters of pulse laser largely. In the same conditions, the pulse width of laser is smaller and its instant power is higher. And temperature rising effect in the tissue is very clear. On the contrary, temperature rising effect in the tissue is lower. The cooling time inducing by temperature rising effect in the tissue is longer along with pulse separation of laser is bigger. And the temperature difference is bigger in the pulse period.

  15. Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change From MSU and AMSU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R. A.; Yoo, J.

    2001-12-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy (1990) pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz,, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics (Yulaeva and Wallace, 1994). We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 (+ - ) 0.05 Kdecade-1 during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model by May and Bengtsson, (1998). This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

  16. Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, Cuddapah; Iacovazzi, R. A., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

  17. Variability and trends in dynamical forcing of tropical lower stratospheric temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Abalos, M.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Lin, P.; Randel, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    We analyse the relation between tropical lower stratospheric temperatures and dynamical forcing over the period 1980-2011 using NCEP, MERRA and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The tropical mean thermodynamic energy equation with Newtonian cooling for radiation is forced with two dynamical predictors: (i) the average eddy heat flux of both hemispheres; and (ii) tropical upwelling estimated from momentum balance following Randel et al. (2002). The correlation (1995-2011) for deseasonalised tropical average temperatures at 70 hPa with the eddy heat flux based predictor is 0.84 for ERA-Interim (0.77 for the momentum balance calculation), and 0.87 for MERRA. The eddy heat flux based predictor indicates a dynamically forced cooling of the tropics of ∼-0.1 K decade-1 (∼-0.2 K decade-1 excluding volcanic periods) for the period 1980-2011 in MERRA and ERA-Interim. ERA-Interim eddy heat fluxes drift slightly relative to MERRA in the 2000's, possibly due to onset of GPS temperature data assimilation. While NCEP gives a small warming trend, all 3 reanalyses show a similar seasonality, with strongest cooling in January/February (∼-0.4 K decade-1, from northern hemispheric forcing) and October (∼-0.3 K decade-1, from southern hemispheric forcing). Months preceding and following the peaks in cooling trends show pronounced smaller, or even warming, trends. Consequently, the seasonality in the trends arises in part due to a temporal shift in eddy activity. Over all months, the Southern Hemisphere contributes more to the tropical cooling in both MERRA and ERA-Interim. The residual time series (observed minus estimate of dynamically forced temperature) are well correlated between ERA-Interim and MERRA, with differences largely due to temperature differences. The residual time series is dominated by the modification of the radiative balance by volcanic aerosol following the eruption of El Chichon (maximum warming of ∼3 K at 70 hPa) and Pinatubo (maximum warming of ∼4 K at 70 hPa), with a strong dynamical response during Pinatubo partially masking the aerosol heating.

  18. Recent temperature variability and trends in the coastal areas of the western Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, Ketil; Nordli, yvind; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wyszynski, Przemyslaw

    2015-04-01

    The Svalbard Archipelago (74-81N, 10-35E) has experienced the greatest temperature increase in Europe during the latest three decades. Svalbard is also noted for its wide year-to-year variation in monthly temperatures and weather. The project "Arctic climate system study of ocean, sea ice and glaciers interactions in Svalbard area" (AWAKE-2) is a continuation and extension of the Polish-Norwegian AWAKE project (2009-2011). The aim of the AWAKE-2 is to understand the interactions between the main components of the climate system in the Svalbard area to identify mechanisms of interannual climate variability and long-term trends. The main hypothesis is that the Atlantic Water inflows over the Svalbard shelf and into the fjords have become more frequent during the last decades due to changes in the ocean and atmosphere. The integrated effect of these events results in new regimes and changes in atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and glaciers in Svalbard. Furthermore, changes in the cryosphere create feedback effects in ocean and atmosphere. One of the objectives in the AWAKE-2 project is to study atmospheric climate variability and trends in the coastal areas of the western Svalbard. In this study we analyse the recent temperature increase and temperature variability along the western coastal areas of Svalbard and compare this to the long-term variability based on historical data. Especially focus is given to the spatial and temporal air temperature gradients along western Svalbard. Changes in possible key factors controlling the recent large temperature anomalies are discussed.

  19. Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

  20. Kaon condensation in the linear sigma model at finite density and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Tran Huu Phat; Nguyen Van Long; Nguyen Tuan Anh; Le Viet Hoa

    2008-11-15

    Basing on the Cornwall-Jackiw-Tomboulis effective action approach we formulate a theoretical formalism for studying kaon condensation in the linear sigma model at finite density and temperature. We derive the renormalized effective potential in the Hartree-Fock approximation, which preserves the Goldstone theorem. This quantity is then used to consider physical properties of kaon matter.

  1. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

  2. Solar variations and their influence on trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E. ); Lean, J.L. . E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research)

    1990-10-01

    Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidal variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.

  3. Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

    2015-02-01

    Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

  4. Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; NASA/Gsfc Sounder Research Team

    2010-12-01

    Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 - February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of ~-0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondance can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by El-Nio-La Nia cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assesments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial trends of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly trends based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Level3 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCMs performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nio-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nio-La Nia activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

  5. Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena F.

    2010-01-01

    Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

  6. Multi-decadal surface temperature trends in the East Antarctica using borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muto, A.; Scambos, T.; Steffen, K.

    2009-12-01

    The interior of East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) remains one of the least explored areas on earth and as a result, its climate is one of the least-understood as well. Recent studies with techniques utilizing sparse available records and models have estimated a weak warming trend in East Antarctica for the past 50 years. However, these are not without uncertainties and additional data sources are needed in order to gain a better assessment of the East Antarctic climate trend. The objective of this investigation is to detect multi-decadal surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica. Surface temperature inversion from vertical firn temperature profile measurements at several locations provides a source of climate reconstruction independent of firn chemistry, sparse weather data, satellite data, or ice cores. During the Norwegian-U.S. IPY Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica, in austral summers of 2007-08 and 2008-09, thermal-profiling units were installed at five locations. Each unit consists of 16 PRTs (Platinum Resistance Thermometers) distributed between depths of 0.15 and approximately 90 m. Wired PRTs were lowered into the borehole after an ice core was drilled and before the hole was back-filled with granulated snow to prevent air circulation and provide thermal conduction between PRTs and firn. Near-hourly data are being transmitted through ARGOS satellite telemetry system. The overall uncertainty in firn temperature measurement is 0.03 C. A geophysical inverse method using the generalized inverse and regularization method was applied to one full year of data collected from three units installed in 2007-08. Results indicate that the recent decade is approximately 0.5 to 0.8 C warmer than ~100 years ago, given assumptions on physical characteristics of the ice sheet (accumulation rate, geothermal heat flux, vertical advection, density and thermal properties). However, the precise onset and rate of the warming are undetermined at this stage. We will also present the preliminary results from the two sites installed in 2008-09 season, as well as the use of Monte Carlo inverse method. Initial analysis suggests that the southern station supports the results of the earlier stations but the near-coastal station near Kohnen appears to indicate a more significant warming.

  7. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraba", "Regio Serrana" and "Regio dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Regio Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Regio Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is increasing (reducing) with significance in almost all regions. "Regio dos Lagos" has the most significant trends of increasing in temperature, thereby influencing the local production of salt and alkaline minerals in medium and long term. The goal of this research is, through the analysis of results, support studies of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change scenarios in Rio de Janeiro State.

  8. The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

  9. [Optimized linear temperature programming for capillary gas chromatography by the method of gridding search].

    PubMed

    Lin, T; Lei, G H

    2001-01-01

    Linear temperature programming of capillary gas chromatography was optimized by using a new method of gridding search. A point of gridding demonstrated a condition of temperature programmed and the resolution and the retention time were optimized at all gridding points. With a new design of calculation, the method not only considered directly all components that were separated, but the velocity of calculation was improved also. Twenty-one compounds of alkanes, alcohols, halo-hydrocarbons and aromatic hydrocarbons, of which Kovats Indexes are varying from 600 to 1,000, were separated by this new method on an OV-101 column under linear temperature programming. Good results were obtained. The time for optimizing the 21 compounds was less than 1 min. PMID:12541845

  10. Trends and Variability of Southern Ocean Temperature and Salinity in Models and Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Marshall, J.; Scott, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    Over recent decades, the surface of the Southern Ocean has been cooling while the sea-ice cover around Antarctica has been modestly increasing. These changes are surprising given the rapid warming and sea-ice loss observed in the Arctic over the same period. We argue here that these Southern Ocean changes are best explained in terms of (i) a Southern Ocean 'thermostat' (driven by Ekman upwelling south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) that has acted to substantially delay surface warming compared to the rest of the world oceans, and (ii) separate processes giving rise to surface cooling and sea-ice expansion. What are these cooling processes? Several compelling hypothesis have been proposed, such as cooling driven by ozone depletion (through surface wind trends changing ocean circulation) and cooling associated with upper ocean freshening (possibly from enhanced melt water from Antarctica). Here we investigate a competing hypothesis that natural variability has played a substantial role. Indeed, unforced model simulations show substantial multi-decadal variability in the Southern Ocean that are as large or larger than the observed trends. To test this hypothesis, we characterize the modes and patterns of Southern Ocean temperature and salinity variability as simulated by CMIP5 models and compare these to the patterns of observed trends. We also consider changes within idealized, ocean-only simulations with the MITgcm forced by a simplified representation of greenhouse gas forcing and hydrologic cycle changes.

  11. A Non-linear Temperature-Time Program for Non-isothermal Kinetic Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohn, Hong Yong

    2016-04-01

    A new temperature-time program for non-isothermal measurements of chemical reaction rates has been developed. The major advantages of the proposed temperature-time function are twofold: Firstly, the analysis of kinetic information in the high temperature range of the measurement is improved over the conventional linear temperature program by slowing the rate of temperature increase in the high temperature range and secondly, the new temperature program greatly facilitates the data analysis by providing a closed-form solution of the temperature integral and allows a convenient way to obtain the kinetic parameters by eliminating the need for the approximate evaluation of the temperature integral. The procedures for applying the new temperature-time program to the analysis of experimental data are demonstrated in terms of the determination of the kinetic parameters based on the selection of a suitable conversion function in the rate equation as well as the direct determination of activation energy at different conversion extents without the need for a conversion function. The rate analysis based on the new temperature program is robust and does not appear to be sensitive to errors in experimental measurements.

  12. A Non-linear Temperature-Time Program for Non-isothermal Kinetic Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohn, Hong Yong

    2015-12-01

    A new temperature-time program for non-isothermal measurements of chemical reaction rates has been developed. The major advantages of the proposed temperature-time function are twofold: Firstly, the analysis of kinetic information in the high temperature range of the measurement is improved over the conventional linear temperature program by slowing the rate of temperature increase in the high temperature range and secondly, the new temperature program greatly facilitates the data analysis by providing a closed-form solution of the temperature integral and allows a convenient way to obtain the kinetic parameters by eliminating the need for the approximate evaluation of the temperature integral. The procedures for applying the new temperature-time program to the analysis of experimental data are demonstrated in terms of the determination of the kinetic parameters based on the selection of a suitable conversion function in the rate equation as well as the direct determination of activation energy at different conversion extents without the need for a conversion function. The rate analysis based on the new temperature program is robust and does not appear to be sensitive to errors in experimental measurements.

  13. Split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler for a new generation of high temperature infrared imagers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veprik, A.; Zechtzer, S.; Pundak, N.

    2010-04-01

    Split linear cryocoolers find use in a variety of infrared equipment installed in airborne, heliborne, marine and vehicular platforms along with hand held and ground fixed applications. An upcoming generation of portable, high-definition night vision imagers will rely on the high-temperature infrared detectors, operating at elevated temperatures, ranging from 95K to 200K, while being able to show the performance indices comparable with these of their traditional 77K competitors. Recent technological advances in industrial development of such high-temperature detectors initialized attempts for developing compact split Stirling linear cryogenic coolers. Their known advantages, as compared to the rotary integral coolers, are superior flexibility in the system packaging, constant and relatively high driving frequency, lower wideband vibration export, unsurpassed reliability and aural stealth. Unfortunately, such off-the-shelf available linear cryogenic coolers still cannot compete with rotary integral rivals in terms of size, weight and power consumption. Ricor developed the smallest in the range, 1W@95K, linear split Stirling cryogenic cooler for demanding infrared applications, where power consumption, compactness, vibration, aural noise and ownership costs are of concern.

  14. Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, A. R.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Schoeberl, M. R.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

  15. Testing linear gravity wave theory with simultaneous wind and temperature data from the mesosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Placke, Manja; Hoffmann, Peter; Gerding, Michael; Becker, Erich; Rapp, Markus

    2013-02-01

    Linear gravity wave (GW) theory is tested on the basis of simultaneous measurements of horizontal winds from a medium frequency (MF) radar at Juliusruh (54.6N, 13.4E) and temperatures from combined Potassium (K) and Rayleigh-Mie-Raman (RMR) lidars at Khlungsborn (54.1N, 11.8E). The applicability of linear GW theory to mesospheric observations is far from obvious given the fact that typically a whole spectrum of waves is observed which may interact non-linearly. Before analyzing our experimental dataset for its fit to expectations from linear GW theory, the chosen methodology is tested with model data from the Khlungsborn Mechanistic general Circulation Model (KMCM). This model is a mechanistic general circulation model with high spatial resolution such that waves with horizontal wavelengths in excess of 350km are explicitly resolved yielding a semi-realistic wave motion field. This may be considered as a suitable test-bed for defining and optimizing wave analysis approaches. This effort reveals that Stokes parameters analysis of filtered time series of GW-induced wind and temperature fluctuations in comparison to wave amplitudes directly retrieved from the filtered time series allows us to demonstrate the validity of polarization relations based on linear wave theory. Indeed, applying the same methodology to the observations yields similarly conclusive results thus giving evidence for the applicability of linear wave theory to mesospheric observations after appropriate filtering. These investigations are complemented by a comparison of kinetic and potential energy per unit mass for model and measured data. This reveals that the ratio of kinetic and potential energy also roughly follows expectations from linear wave theory.

  16. Commercial Development of an Advanced, High-Temperature, Linear-Fresnel Based Concentrating Solar Power Concept

    SciTech Connect

    Viljoen, Nolan; Schuknecht, Nathan

    2012-05-28

    Included herein is SkyFuel’s detailed assessment of the potential for a direct molten salt linear Fresnel collector. Linear Fresnel architecture is of interest because it has features that are well suited for use with molten salt as a heat transfer fluid: the receiver is fixed (only the mirrors track), the receiver diameter is large (reducing risk of freeze events), and the total linear feet of receiver can be reduced due to the large aperture area. Using molten salt as a heat transfer fluid increases the allowable operating temperature of a collector field, and the cost of thermal storage is reduced in proportion to that increase in temperature. At the conclusion of this project, SkyFuel determined that the cost goals set forth in the contract could not be reasonably met. The performance of a Linear Fresnel collector is significantly less than that of a parabolic trough, in particular due to linear Fresnel’s large optical cosine losses. On an annual basis, the performance is 20 to 30% below that of a parabolic trough per unit area. The linear Fresnel collector and balance of system costs resulted in an LCOE of approximately 9.9¢/kWhre. Recent work by SkyFuel has resulted in a large aperture trough design (DSP Trough) with an LCOE value of 8.9 ¢/kWhre calculated with comparative financial terms and balance of plant costs (White 2011). Thus, even though the optimized linear Fresnel collector of our design has a lower unit cost than our optimized trough, it cannot overcome the reduction in annual performance.

  17. Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohlinger, P.; Sinnhuber, B.-M.; Ruhnke, R.; Kirner, O.

    2014-02-01

    Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by -0.41 0.11 K decade-1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001-2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.

  18. Raman distributed temperature sensor for oil leakage detection in soil: a field trial and future trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Signorini, Alessandro; Nannipieri, Tiziano; Gabella, Luca; Di Pasquale, Fabrizio; Latini, Gilberto; Ripari, Daniele

    2014-05-01

    In this paper we perform field validation of distributed Raman temperature sensing (RDTS) for oil leakage detection in soil. The capability of the distributed Raman sensor in detecting and locating, with high accuracy and spatial resolution, drop leakages in soil is demonstrated through a water leakage simulation in a field trial. The future trends and the high potential of the Raman DTS technology for oil and gas leakage detection in long pipelines is then outlined in this paper by reporting lab experiments demonstrating accurate meter scale temperature measurement over more than 50 km of standard single mode fiber. The proposed solution, based on distributed Simplex coding techniques, can be competitive in terms of cost and performance with respect to other distributed sensing technologies.

  19. Full-depth temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desbruyres, D. G.; McDonagh, E. L.; King, B. A.; Garry, F. K.; Blaker, A. T.; Moat, B. I.; Mercier, H.

    2014-11-01

    The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated using a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0-450 m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000 m to 3000 m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003-2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000 m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively), while the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53 0.06 W m-2 through the sea surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus.

  20. Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and warming trends in the Yellow Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Kyung-Ae; Lee, Eun-Young; Chang, Eunmi; Hong, Sungwook

    2015-03-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Yellow Sea was investigated using satellite data and in-situ measurements over 29 years from 1981 to 2009. We found that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST variability, which accounts for 47.59% of the total SST variance, exhibited a warming signal during the study period. We examined the relationships between the dominant EOF mode, long-term trends of SST changes and in-situ temperatures, and bathymetry. As a result, the shallow regions demonstrated more significant increasing rates than the deep area in the Yellow Sea. Vertical stratification of the water column revealed long-term changes, which led to differential surface warming. The warming rates decayed monotonically with depth. The spatial features of long-term SST warming trends were most remarkable near the Yangtze River, due to the effect of river discharge. Abrupt changes in the time-varying amplitude of the first EOF mode in winter could be explained by Arctic Oscillation.

  1. Using wavelet transforms to estimate surface temperature trends and dominant periodicities in Iran based on gridded reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araghi, A.; Mousavi Baygi, M.; Adamowski, J.; Malard, J.; Nalley, D.; Hasheminia, S. M.

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT), the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, and the sequential Mann-Kendall test are applied to temperature series at different time scales in order to detect the long-term trends (1956-2010) in synoptic-scale surface temperatures in Iran, as well as the dominant time scales affecting these temperature time series. The relevant data was extracted from a gridded data file of the region (44E to 63.5E, 25N to 40N) and divided into 12 regular zones (of dimensions 5 5), each of which was analyzed as an individual unit. The results of this research show that at the monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, the trends in temperature were significant and positive in all of the study zones. In addition, the 2-month and 4-month components were dominant at the monthly time scale, the 48-month component dominant at the seasonal time scale, and the 8-year and 16-year components dominant at the annual time scale. Also, the temperature trends in the northern, and especially central, regions of the study zones increased from west to east, and these increasing trends in temperature were most prominent for the spring and summer seasons. The methodology applied here is generally applicable and quite useful for studying both trends and the dominant time scales affecting climatic data series and could find significant applications in related fields.

  2. A linearization time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Hao-Wen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an area-efficient time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator for linearity enhancement with a -40 to 120 C temperature range operability. The inverter-based smart temperature sensors can substantially reduce the cost and circuit complexity of integrated temperature sensors. However, a large curvature exists on the temperature-to-time transfer curve of the inverter-based delay line and results in poor linearity of the sensor output. For cost reduction and error improvement, a temperature-to-pulse generator composed of a ring oscillator and a time amplifier was used to generate a thermal sensing pulse with a sufficient width proportional to the absolute temperature (PTAT). Then, a simple but effective on-chip curvature compensation oscillator is proposed to simultaneously count and compensate the PTAT pulse with curvature for linearization. With such a simple structure, the proposed sensor possesses an extremely small area of 0.07 mm2 in a TSMC 0.35-mm CMOS 2P4M digital process. By using an oscillator-based scheme design, the proposed sensor achieves a fine resolution of 0.045 C without significantly increasing the circuit area. With the curvature compensation, the inaccuracy of -1.2 to 0.2 C is achieved in an operation range of -40 to 120 C after two-point calibration for 14 packaged chips. The power consumption is measured as 23 mW at a sample rate of 10 samples/s. PMID:23989825

  3. A parametric study of non-linear evolution of tearing mode with temperature anisotropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shinohara, Iku; Fujimoto, Masaki

    2013-04-01

    We have studied the non-linear evolution of the tearing instability with temperature anisotropy, T?-T-- by using a 2-D full kinetic simulation. As predicted by the linear-theory, e.g. Chen and Palmadesso (1984), Quest et al. (2010), the growth rate of the tearing mode increases as higher anisotropy, T?-T--. Two parametric studies have been done: (i) changing the current sheet thickness with the fixed anisotropy ratio, and (ii) changing the anisotropy ratio and the ion-electron temperature ratio with a fixed current sheet thickness. As a result, we found that event in a thick current sheet case, D-?i = 4 (D is the current sheet thickness, and ?i is the ion inertia length.), fast growth emerges at the non-linear stage and the growth rate is almost proportional to D-?i and that the growth rate and saturation level at the non-linear stage are independent on parameters once the explosive growth starts. The most impressible results are those (1) electron anisotropy plays important role to push the tearing mode into the non-linear stage and (2) there exists a threshold value of the ion-electron temperature ratio for enabling the explosive growth as the results of Tanaka et al. (2004). We think that these facts may be a big hint to solve the triggering mechanism of magnetic reconnection. We will show the results of our parametric study and discuss possible physical meaning of the threshold value for the explosive evolution.

  4. Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madej, Mary Ann

    2011-01-01

    As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

  5. Assessing the reliability of trends in extremes of surface temperature across Europe in the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornes, Richard; Jones, Phil

    2014-05-01

    Reanalysis data are often used in climate studies as a surrogate for observations. This is particularly the case in model comparisons, where the spatial/temporal completeness of the reanalysis data allows direct comparisons with simulated data. However, reanalysis data are susceptible to certain limitations, including changes to the observed data input over time, deficiencies in the data-assimilation scheme and uncertainties in the numerical model. Temporal inhomogeneities arising from the increasing incorporation of remotely-sensed data since the late 1970s have been a significant problem in earlier reanalysis versions, and have confounded trend evaluations in such datasets. Assessments of the reliability of reanalysis data compared to observed data is therefore vital, particularly with regard to long-term trends. Most previous comparisons have evaluated trends in mean values, and have shown that the ERA-Interim data are generally good at replicating trends in means of surface temperature in data-rich areas such as Europe. Relatively few attempts have been made to evaluate trends in extreme values derived from reanalysis data. In this paper, trends in extremes of daily maximum/minimum temperature across Europe in the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset over the period 1980-2011 are compared with trends in both station data and the gridded E-OBS dataset. Reanalysis temperature data that have been post-processed at 3- and 12-hourly resolutions are used, and the numbers of days per season/year that daily maximum/minimum temperature exceeded the 10th and 90th base-period percentiles are employed as metrics (TX10/90 and TN10/90 respectively). The results in this paper indicate that, on the whole, the trends in temperature extremes are successfully replicated in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The data are least successful in the spring and summer months and for the TX90 index. Significant trend differences are observed at certain high-elevation sites, where trends in extremes of maximum temperature in particular tend to be underestimated. The time-resolution of the post-processed temperature reanalysis data also appears to have an effect on the depiction of trends in temperature extremes, with the 3-hourly resolution data out-performing the 12-hourly data.

  6. Mercury trends in predatory fish in Great Slave Lake: the influence of temperature and other climate drivers.

    PubMed

    Evans, Marlene; Muir, Derek; Brua, Robert B; Keating, Jonathan; Wang, Xiaowa

    2013-11-19

    Here we report on trends in mercury (Hg) concentrations in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), burbot (Lota lota), and northern pike (Esox lucius) from Great Slave Lake, located in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) and investigate how climate factors may be influencing these trends. Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot increased significantly over the early 1990s to 2012 in the two major regions of the lake; no trend was evident for northern pike over 1999-2012. Temporal variations in Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot were similar with respect to timing of peaks and troughs. Inclusion of climate variables based on annual means, particularly temperature, improved explanatory power for variations in Hg over analyses based only on year and fish length; unexpectedly, the temperature coefficient was negative. Climate analyses based on growing season means (defined as May-September) had less explanatory power suggesting that trends were more strongly associated with colder months within the year. Inclusion of the Pacific/North American index improved explanatory power for the lake trout model suggesting that trends may have been affected by air circulation patterns. Overall, while our study confirmed previously reported trends of Hg increase in burbot in the MRB, we found no evidence that these trends were directly driven by increasing temperatures and productivity. PMID:24111928

  7. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid based molecular thermometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g. surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs preserved in Lake Schreventeich sediments record summer surface water temperatures. As N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria are widespread in present-day freshwater and brackish environments, we conclude that the distribution of HGs in sediments may allow the reconstruction of surface water temperatures of modern and potentially ancient lacustrine settings.

  8. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid-based molecular thermometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-06-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g., surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry) analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent-extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26 carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs preserved in the sediment record of Lake Schreventeich reflect summer surface water temperatures. As N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria are widespread in present-day freshwater and brackish environments, we conclude that the distribution of HGs in sediments may allow for the reconstruction of surface water temperatures of modern and potentially ancient lacustrine settings.

  9. Linear viscoelastic limits of asphalt concrete at low and intermediate temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Yusuf A.

    The purpose of this dissertation is to demonstrate the hypothesis that a region at which the behavior of asphalt concrete can be represented as a linear viscoelastic material can be determined at low and intermediate temperatures considering the stresses and strains typically developed in the pavements under traffic loading. Six mixtures containing different aggregate gradations and nominal maximum aggregate sizes varying from 12.5 to 37.5 mm were used in this study. The asphalt binder grade was the same for all mixtures. The mixtures were compacted to 7 +/- 1% air voids, using the Superpave Gyratory Compactor. Tests were conducted at low temperatures (-20C and -10C), using the indirect tensile test machine, and at intermediate temperatures (4C and 20C), using the Superpave shear machine. To determine the linear viscoelastic range of asphalt concrete, a relaxation test for 150 s, followed by a creep test for another 150 s, was conducted at 150 and 200 microstrains (1 microstrain = 1 x 10-6), at -20C, and at 150 and 300 microstrains, at -10C. A creep test for 200 s, followed by a recovery test for another 200 s, was conducted at stress levels up to 800 kPa at 4C and up to 500 kPa at 20C. At -20C and -10C, the behavior of the mixtures was linear viscoelastic at 200 and 300 microstrains, respectively. At intermediate temperatures (4C and 20C), an envelope defining the linear and nonlinear region in terms of stress as a function of shear creep compliance was constructed for all the mixtures. For creep tests conducted at 20C, it was discovered that the commonly used protocol to verify the proportionality condition of linear viscoelastic behavior was unable to detect the appearance of nonlinear behavior at certain imposed shear stress levels. Said nonlinear behavior was easily detected, however, when checking the satisfaction of the superposition condition. The envelope constructed for determining when the material becomes nonlinear should be valid for mixtures similar to the ones tested in this study. Different envelopes should be used in the case of mixtures containing a very soft or a very stiff polymer modified binder. At 4C, the typical values of stresses and material properties of mixtures fell within the linear viscoelastic region, considering the typical shear creep compliance values at loading times and stresses experienced in the field. However, typical values at 20C fell within a region in which some, but not all of the mixtures tested in this study behaved linearly. It is known that the behavior of asphalt concrete mixture changes from linear to nonlinear, depending on the temperature and loading conditions. However, this study is the first of its kind in which both the proportionality and the superposition condition were evaluated. The experimental design and the analysis procedures presented in this study can be applied to similar experiments that may be conducted in the future to evaluate linearity of different types of asphalt concrete mixtures.

  10. Interrelations of AIRS/AMSU-derived anomalies and trends of temperature, water vapor, clouds and OLR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J.

    2009-12-01

    The AIRS/AMSU instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties and has been providing high quality data for more than 7 years. Currently, general circulation models (GCMs) are our best tools for longer-term climate change predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in their climate feedback strengths, in particular those related to atmospheric moisture. Here, we illustrate that even relatively shorter-term observed climate parameter variabilities, measured with high enough quality, could provide useful insights about climate feedbacks and may serve as constraints on theoretical and GCM-computed feedback mechanisms. Anomalies relative to the mean seasonal cycle of 7 years worth of data are indicative of various climate forcings and feedbacks, especially in periods containing strong El Nio/La Nia oscillations. This work is based on publicly available Version 5 Level3 AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DISC. Following the presentation of AIRS-anomaly validations, using available independent satellite data analysis results, we continue with an assessment of interrelationships of AIRS-observed anomalies of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale trend-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 7+ year period. Note that here trend simply means the linear fit to the anomaly time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales. Correlations among the anomaly timeseries and relevant Hovmoller diagrams reveal how selected climate feedbacks operate on various spatial scales. We find especially meaningful correlations over the El Nio/La Nia affected regions. These observed correlations may also provide constraints on model implementations/manifestations of climate feedback processes and illustrate the usefulness of continuing the high quality AIRS-based climate variability measurements.

  11. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  12. Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Larsen, S. H.; Drew, D. M.; Downes, G. M.; Francey, R. J.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

    2014-10-01

    To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the Divergence Problem (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000-2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of divergence', we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated.

  13. Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Hughes, Sarah; Hopkins, Joanne; Wakelin, Sarah L.; Penny Holliday, N.; Dye, Stephen; Gonzlez-Pola, Csar; Hjllo, Solfrid Stre; Mork, Kjell Arne; Nolan, Glen; Proctor, Roger; Read, Jane; Shammon, Theresa; Sherwin, Toby; Smyth, Tim; Tattersall, Graham; Ward, Ben; Wiltshire, Karen Helen

    2012-11-01

    We examine the trends and variability in temperature of the northwest European shelf seas over the period 1960-2004 using four approaches: a regional model simulation (using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System; POLCOMS), in situ multi-annual timeseries observations, satellite remote sensed (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST), and an analysis of data held in an international database at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We focus on variability for the full period and trends from 1985 to 2004, being limited by the length of model simulation and the availability of satellite data. We find that all data sources give a consistent picture, with both trends and variability being intensified on-shelf and north of ?48N. The model and AVHRR SST show statistically significant warming trends in large areas of this region that are clearly distinguishable from both model/observation error and natural variability on these timescales. This signal to noise ratio is substantially reduced when near bottom temperatures are considered in the model. The long timeseries at Port Erin (Isle of Man) shows that the variation in trend is well represented by the model and that the warming trend in the period 1985-2004 is substantially larger and of longer duration than previous peaks in 20-year trends since 1914. We find that the SST trends are greater in the model and satellite observations than the air temperature trends in the ERA40 re-analysis used for forcing; the net sea to air heat flux is ?20% less in 1985-2004 than 1960-1984 (including shortwave, longwave, sensible and latent components). This is partly compensated by a ?9% reduction in advective warming. The model shows the trends in seasonally stratified regions are greater at the surface than at depth, indicating an increase in this stratification. While this pattern is also seen in the annual trends from the ICES data analysis, the lack of seasonal resolution hampers a quantitative corroboration. The model is seen to have good skill in reproducing both the trends and variability, but tends to underestimate the trends. The modelled variability is overestimated in some coastal and open ocean regions and underestimated elsewhere, while the phase of this variability is generally well represented. Generally the model performance is better on-shelf than in the open ocean.

  14. Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Mears, C.; Wentz, F. J.; Klein, S. A.; Seidel, D. J.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P. W.; Wehner, M. F.; Gleckler, P. J.; Boyle, J. S.; Collins, W. D.; Dixon, K. W.; Doutriaux, C.; Free, M.; Fu, Q.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, G. S.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J. R.; Meehl, G. A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G. A.

    2005-09-01

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  15. Trends in the design of front-end systems for room temperature solid state detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Manfredi, Pier F.; Re, Valerio

    2003-10-07

    The paper discusses the present trends in the design of low-noise front-end systems for room temperature semiconductor detectors. The technological advancement provided by submicron CMOS and BiCMOS processes is examined from several points of view. The noise performances are a fundamental issue in most detector applications and suitable attention is devoted to them for the purpose of judging whether or not the present processes supersede the solutions featuring a field-effect transistor as a front-end element. However, other considerations are also important in judging how well a monolithic technology suits the front-end design. Among them, the way a technology lends itself to the realization of additional functions, for instance, the charge reset in a charge-sensitive loop or the time-variant filters featuring the special weighting functions that may be requested in some applications of CdTe or CZT detectors.

  16. Karakorum temperature out of phase with hemispheric trends for the past five centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Muhammad Usama; Ahmed, Moinuddin; Rao, Mukund Palat; Buckley, Brendan M.; Khan, Nasrullah; Wahab, Muhammad; Palmer, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    A systematic increase in global temperature since the industrial revolution has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing. This increase has been especially evident over the Himalayas and Central Asia and is touted as a major contributing factor for glacier mass balance declines across much of this region. However, glaciers of Pakistan's Karakorum region have shown no such decline during this time period, and in some instances have exhibited slight advance. This discrepancy, known as the `Karakorum Anomaly', has been attributed to unusual amounts of debris covering the region's glaciers; the unique seasonality of the region's precipitation; and localized cooling resulting from increased cloudiness from monsoonal moisture. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of summer (June-August) temperature from the Karakorum of North Pakistan that spans nearly five centuries (1523-2007 C.E.). The ring width indices are derived from seven collections (six— Picea smithiana and one— Pinus gerardiana) from middle-to-upper timberline sites in the northern Karakorum valleys of Gilgit and Hunza at elevations ranging from 2850 to 3300 meters above mean sea level (mean elevation 3059 m asl). The reconstruction passes all traditional calibration-verification schemes and explains 41 % of the variance of the nested Gilgit-Astore instrumental station data (Gilgit—1454 m asl, 1951-2009; Astore—2167 m asl, 1960-2013). Importantly, our results indicate that Karakorum temperature has remained decidedly out of phase with hemispheric temperature trends for at the least the past five centuries, highlighting the long-term stability of the Karakorum Anomaly, and suggesting that the region's temperature and cloudiness are contributing factors to the anomaly.

  17. Karakorum temperature out of phase with hemispheric trends for the past five centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Muhammad Usama; Ahmed, Moinuddin; Rao, Mukund Palat; Buckley, Brendan M.; Khan, Nasrullah; Wahab, Muhammad; Palmer, Jonathan

    2015-06-01

    A systematic increase in global temperature since the industrial revolution has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing. This increase has been especially evident over the Himalayas and Central Asia and is touted as a major contributing factor for glacier mass balance declines across much of this region. However, glaciers of Pakistan's Karakorum region have shown no such decline during this time period, and in some instances have exhibited slight advance. This discrepancy, known as the `Karakorum Anomaly', has been attributed to unusual amounts of debris covering the region's glaciers; the unique seasonality of the region's precipitation; and localized cooling resulting from increased cloudiness from monsoonal moisture. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of summer (June-August) temperature from the Karakorum of North Pakistan that spans nearly five centuries (1523-2007 C.E.). The ring width indices are derived from seven collections (sixPicea smithiana and onePinus gerardiana) from middle-to-upper timberline sites in the northern Karakorum valleys of Gilgit and Hunza at elevations ranging from 2850 to 3300 meters above mean sea level (mean elevation 3059 m asl). The reconstruction passes all traditional calibration-verification schemes and explains 41 % of the variance of the nested Gilgit-Astore instrumental station data (Gilgit1454 m asl, 1951-2009; Astore2167 m asl, 1960-2013). Importantly, our results indicate that Karakorum temperature has remained decidedly out of phase with hemispheric temperature trends for at the least the past five centuries, highlighting the long-term stability of the Karakorum Anomaly, and suggesting that the region's temperature and cloudiness are contributing factors to the anomaly.

  18. Nucleon properties in the quantized linear sigma model at finite temperature and chemical potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abu-Shady, M.; Mansour, H. M.

    2016-02-01

    The linear sigma model at finite temperature and chemical potential is systematically studied using the coherent-pair approximation, in which the quantized meson fields are included. The expectation value of the chiral Hamiltonian density is minimized and the resulting equations for the nucleon are solved. The qualitative features of the quantized sigma and pion fields are strongly sensitive to the change of temperature and chemical potential and are in agreement with the mean-field approximation calculations. It is noticed that the nucleon mass increases with increasing coherence parameter x. In addition, the nucleon mass increases with increasing temperature T and the baryonic chemical potential μ, and then it decreases at higher values of the temperature and baryonic chemical potential. The obtained results show that the mean-square radius of the proton and the neutron increase with increasing temperature or baryonic chemical potential, and that the pion–nucleon coupling constant {g}π {NN} decreases with the temperature or baryonic chemical potential. We conclude that the coherent-pair approximation successfully gives a better description of the nucleon properties at finite temperature and baryonic chemical potential.

  19. Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

    2013-05-01

    The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts due to bleaching in 1983 and 1998, and increasing variance in anomalies (both positive and negative) the E-Pacific presently maintains an upward trend in coral cover and colony frequency. In the Red Sea , variance in anomalies increased but exclusively towards positive values. In the Gulf, variance declined towards stronger and only positive anomalies. In both regions, this raised thermal envelope is associated with reef decline. This is most dramatic in the Gulf, with six bleaching events since 1996, but also obvious in the Red Sea (bleaching in 1998, 2005 and 2010). Both Gulf and Red Sea suffer also from other mortality factors, such as diseases and predator outbreaks. Decline in reef health is therefore not uniquely linked to bleaching, but other mortality factors are also linked to changes in the thermal envelope. Chronic effects of increased average temperatures seem to define a reef trajectory more closely than the effects of individual, albeit strong, episodic disturbances.

  20. Long-term midlatitude mesopause region temperature trend deduced from quarter century (1990-2014) Na lidar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    She, C.-Y.; Krueger, D. A.; Yuan, T.

    2015-03-01

    The long-term midlatitude temperature trend between 85 and 105 km is deduced from 25 years (March 1990-December 2014) of Na Lidar observations. With a strong warming episode in the 1990s, the time series was least-square fitted to an 11-parameter nonlinear function. This yields a cooling trend starting from an insignificant value of 0.64 0.99 K decade-1 at 85 km, increasing to a maximum of 2.8 0.58 K decade-1 between 91 and 93 km, and then decreasing to a warming trend above 103 km. The geographic altitude dependence of the trend is in general agreement with model predictions. To shed light on the nature of the warming episode, we show that the recently reported prolonged global surface temperature cooling after the Mt Pinatubo eruption can also be very well represented by the same response function.

  1. Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion for temperature-dependent linear spectra of light harvesting aggregates.

    PubMed

    Ritschel, Gerhard; Suess, Daniel; Mbius, Sebastian; Strunz, Walter T; Eisfeld, Alexander

    2015-01-21

    Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion (NMQSD) has turned out to be an efficient method to calculate excitonic properties of aggregates composed of organic chromophores, taking into account the coupling of electronic transitions to vibrational modes of the chromophores. NMQSD is an open quantum system approach that incorporates environmental degrees of freedom (the vibrations in our case) in a stochastic way. We show in this paper that for linear optical spectra (absorption, circular dichroism), no stochastics is needed, even for finite temperatures. Thus, the spectra can be obtained by propagating a single trajectory. To this end, we map a finite temperature environment to the zero temperature case using the so-called thermofield method. The resulting equations can then be solved efficiently by standard integrators. PMID:25612697

  2. Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion for temperature-dependent linear spectra of light harvesting aggregates

    SciTech Connect

    Ritschel, Gerhard; Mbius, Sebastian; Eisfeld, Alexander; Suess, Daniel; Strunz, Walter T.

    2015-01-21

    Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion (NMQSD) has turned out to be an efficient method to calculate excitonic properties of aggregates composed of organic chromophores, taking into account the coupling of electronic transitions to vibrational modes of the chromophores. NMQSD is an open quantum system approach that incorporates environmental degrees of freedom (the vibrations in our case) in a stochastic way. We show in this paper that for linear optical spectra (absorption, circular dichroism), no stochastics is needed, even for finite temperatures. Thus, the spectra can be obtained by propagating a single trajectory. To this end, we map a finite temperature environment to the zero temperature case using the so-called thermofield method. The resulting equations can then be solved efficiently by standard integrators.

  3. Non-linear analysis of PESA-Low electrostatic analyzer data and solar wind temperature anisotropies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Djordjevic, B.; Maruca, B. A.; Bale, S. D.; Wilson, L. B., III; Larson, D.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, non-linear fitting techniques are applied to ion measurements from the Wind spacecraft's PESA-Lo electrostatic analyzer. Previous studies have relied primarily on moments-analyses, which, although satisfactory for simple distributions and density calculations, often return unreasonable values for higher order moments (e.g., temperature) and fail to account for non-thermal effects (e.g., temperature anisotropy and beams) and multiple ion-species. A Levenberg-Marquadt non-linear algorithm is applied to the PESA-Lo data in order to calculate the characteristic parameters of the proton, alpha-particle, and beam distributions. This analysis is augmented with calibration data from the WIND Faraday cups and magnetic-field data from WIND/MFI. Preliminary results from this non-linear analysis indicate that it indeed provides higher-quality ion parameters than the existing moments-analysis. When this analysis is complete, the set of bulk-parameter values will be suitable for studies of microinstabilities in the solar wind and of possible correlation between magnetic field fluctuations and non-thermal properties of the ion distributions. Applications of thermodynamic principles, such as the Boltzmann H-theorem, will allow for further characterization of the non-thermal properties of the solar wind.

  4. Split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler for high-temperature infrared sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veprik, A.; Zehter, S.; Vilenchik, H.; Pundak, N.

    2009-05-01

    Infrared imagers play a vital role in the modern tactics of carrying out surveillance, reconnaissance, targeting and navigation operations. The cooled systems are known to be superior to their uncooled competitors in terms of working ranges, resolution and ability to distinguish/track fast moving objects in dynamic infrared scenes. These advantages are primarily due to maintaining the infrared focal plane arrays at cryogenic temperatures using mechanical closed cycle Stirling cryogenic coolers. Recent technological advances in industrial application of high-temperature (up to 200K) infrared detectors has spurred the development of linearly driven microminiature split Stirling cryogenic coolers having inherently longer life spans, lower vibration export and better aural stealth as compared to their rotary driven rivals. Moreover, recent progress in designing highly efficient "moving magnet" resonant linear actuators and dedicated smart electronics have enabled further improvements to the cooler size, weight, power consumption, cooldown time and ownership costs. The authors report on the development and project status of a novel microminiature split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler having a shortened to 19mm cold finger and a high driving frequency (90Hz). The cooler has been specifically designed for cooling 130K infrared sensors of future portable infrared imagers, where compactness, low steady-state power consumption and fast cool-down time are of primary concern.

  5. SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES: A linear array of 980 nm VCSEL and its high temperature operation characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Zhang; Yongqiang, Ning; Ye, Wang; Guangyu, Liu; Zhenfu, Wang; Xing, Zhang; Jingjing, Shi; Lisen, Zhang; Wei, Wang; Li, Qin; Yanfang, Sun; Yun, Liu; Lijun, Wang

    2009-11-01

    A 980 nm bottom-emitting vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser linear array with high power density and a good beam property of Gaussian far-field distribution is reported. This array is composed of five linearly arranged elements with a 200 μm diameter one at the center, the other two 150 μm and 100 μm diameter ones at both sides of the center with center to center spacing of 300 μm and 250 μm, respectively. A power of 880 mW at a current of 4 A and a corresponding power density of up to 1 kW/cm2 is obtained. The temperature dependent characteristics of the linear array are investigated. The thermal interaction between the individual elements of the VCSEL linear array is smaller due to its optimized element size and device spacing, which make it more suitable for high power applications. A peak power of over 20 W has been achieved in pulsed operation with a 60 ns pulse length and a repetition frequency of 1 kHz.

  6. The distribution of precipitation and the spread in tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends in CMIP5/AMIP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Radley, C.; Held, I. M.

    2015-07-01

    Reconciling observations and simulations of tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends remains an important problem in climate science. Examining atmospheric models running over observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Flannaghan et al. (2014) show that this reconciliation is affected by the SST data set used and that a precipitation-weighted SST (PSST) is valuable in explaining this result. Here we show that even for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 AMIP) simulations forced with identical SSTs, tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends across models (and between ensemble members) show a substantial spread (standard deviation ˜10% of the average trend). About 60% of this spread between ensemble means, as well as deviations from the ensemble means, can be explained by PSST calculated from the time-evolving precipitation in each model run. Both PSST and atmospheric temperature trends show statistical evidence for systematic differences between models. We conclude that the response of precipitation patterns to changes in SST patterns is a significant source of uncertainty for tropical temperature trends.

  7. Global patterns of the trends in satellite-derived crop yield proxy, temperature and soil moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakai, T.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.

    2014-12-01

    Crop productivity (yield) is sensitive to climate variability and change. To inform stakeholders, including food agencies in food-importing countries, about future variations in food supply associated with climate variability and change, understanding major climatic drivers of the spatiotemporal variations in crop yield over global cropland during the last few decades is crucial. Although remote sensing has difficulty distinguishing individual crops and misses entire cropping cycles in areas where extensive cloud cover during the monsoon limits satellite observations, it is still useful in deriving a proxy of crop yield over large spatial domain and estimating the impacts on crop yield proxy due to climate, including land-surface temperature and surface-layer soil moisture. This study presents an attempt to globally depict the impact of climate change on crop yield proxy by applying a time series analysis to MODIS and AMSR-E satellite images. The crop yield proxy used was the annual maximum or integrated MODIS-derived NDVI during the growing period predefined on the basis of the global crop calendar. The trends in the crop yield proxy in the interval 2001-2013 appeared positive in higher latitudes and negative in lower latitudes. In higher latitudes (and thus colder regions), the increased land-surface temperature led to an increase in crop yield in part due to the enhanced photosynthesis rate. In contrast, the crop yield proxy showed negative correlation with land-surface temperature in lower latitudes. The increased temperature might decrease crop yield by increasing evapotranspiration rate, plant respiration and/or heat stress. The crop yield proxy was also correlated with the AMSR-E-derived soil moisture, although the geographical distribution of soil moisture was highly heterogeneous.

  8. Trends and variability of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, Tannecia; Vincent, Lucie; Allen, Theodore; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric; McLean, Natalie

    2013-04-01

    A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily surface temperature and precipitation data for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the preparation of climate change indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. Region-wide, annual means of the daily minimum temperatures (+1.4°C) have increased more than the annual means of the daily maximum temperatures (+0.95°C) leading to significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range. The frequency of warm days and warm nights has increased by more than 15% while 7% fewer cool days and 10% fewer cool night were found over the 50-year interval. These frequency trends are further reflected in a rise of the annual extreme high and low temperatures by ~1°C. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986-2010. Finally, aside from the observed climate trends, correlations between these indices and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) annual index suggest a coupling between land temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes on the one hand, and the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures.

  9. Trends and variability of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, T. L.; Stephenson, T. S.; Vincent, L.; Van Meerbeeck, C.; McLean, N.

    2013-05-01

    A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily surface temperature and precipitation data for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the preparation of climate change indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. Region-wide, annual means of the daily minimum temperatures (+1.4°C) have increased more than the annual means of the daily maximum temperatures (+0.9°C) leading to significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range. The frequency of warm days and warm nights has increased by more than 15% while 9% fewer cool days and 13% fewer cool night were found over the 50-year interval. These frequency trends are further reflected in a rise of the annual extreme high and low temperatures by ~1°C. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986- 2010. Finally, aside from the observed climate trends, correlations between these indices and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) annual index suggest a coupling between land temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes on the one hand, and the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures.

  10. Solar Wind Proton Temperature Anisotropy: Linear Theory and WIND/SWE Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hellinger, P.; Travnicek, P.; Kasper, J. C.; Lazarus, A. J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a comparison between WIND/SWE observations (Kasper et al., 2006) of beta parallel to p and T perpendicular to p/T parallel to p (where beta parallel to p is the proton parallel beta and T perpendicular to p and T parallel to p are the perpendicular and parallel proton are the perpendicular and parallel proton temperatures, respectively; here parallel and perpendicular indicate directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field) and predictions of the Vlasov linear theory. In the slow solar wind, the observed proton temperature anisotropy seems to be constrained by oblique instabilities, by the mirror one and the oblique fire hose, contrary to the results of the linear theory which predicts a dominance of the proton cyclotron instability and the parallel fire hose. The fast solar wind core protons exhibit an anticorrelation between beta parallel to c and T perpendicular to c/T parallel to c (where beta parallel to c is the core proton parallel beta and T perpendicular to c and T parallel to c are the perpendicular and parallel core proton temperatures, respectively) similar to that observed in the HELIOS data (Marsch et al., 2004).

  11. On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

  12. Temperature condensation trend in the debris-disk binary system ζ2 Reticuli

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saffe, C.; Flores, M.; Jaque Arancibia, M.; Buccino, A.; Jofré, E.

    2016-04-01

    Context. Detailed abundance studies have reported different trends between samples of stars with and without planets, possibly related to the planet formation process. Whether these differences are still present between samples of stars with and without debris disk is still unclear. Aims: We explore condensation temperature Tc trends in the unique binary system ζ1 Ret -ζ2 Ret to determine whether there is a depletion of refractories that could be related to the planet formation process. The star ζ2 Ret hosts a debris disk which was detected by an IR excess and confirmed by direct imaging and numerical simulations, while ζ1 Ret does not present IR excess or planets. These characteristics convert ζ2 Ret in a remarkable system where their binary nature together with the strong similarity of both components allow us, for the first time, to achieve the highest possible abundance precision in this system. Methods: We carried out a high-precision abundance determination in both components of the binary system via a line-by-line, strictly differential approach. First we used the Sun as a reference and then we used ζ2 Ret. The stellar parameters Teff, log g, [Fe/H], and vturb were determined by imposing differential ionization and excitation equilibrium of Fe I and Fe II lines, with an updated version of the program FUNDPAR, together with plane-parallel local thermodynamic equilibrium ATLAS9 model atmospheres and the MOOG code. We then derived detailed abundances of 24 different species with equivalent widths and spectral synthesis with the MOOG program. The chemical patterns were compared with a recently calculated solar-twins Tc trend, and then mutually between both stars of the binary system. The rocky mass of depleted refractory material was estimated according to recent data. Results: The star ζ1 Ret is found to be slightly more metal rich than ζ2 Ret by ~0.02 dex. In the differential calculation of ζ1 Ret using ζ2 Ret as reference, the abundances of the refractory elements are higher than the volatile elements, and the trend of the refractory elements with Tc shows a positive slope. These results together show a lack of refractory elements in ζ2 Ret (a debris-disk host) relative to ζ1 Ret. The Tc trend would be in agreement with the proposed signature of planet formation rather than possible galactic chemical evolution or age effects, which are largely diminished here. Then, following the recent interpretation, we propose a scenario in which the refractory elements depleted in ζ2 Ret are possibly locked up in the rocky material that orbits this star and produce the debris disk observed around this object. We estimated a lower limit of Mrock ~ 3 M⊕ for the rocky mass of depleted material, which is compatible with rough estimations of 3-50 M⊕ of a debris disk mass around a solar-type star. Tables 1 and 3 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/588/A81

  13. Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

    2013-01-01

    Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

  14. Spatiotemporal analysis of temperature trends under climate change in the source region of the Yellow River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuli; Wang, Xuan; Li, Chunhui; Wu, Feifei; Yang, Zhifeng

    2015-01-01

    Under global climate change, the change in temperature has greatly affected the hydrological processes and water resource security in the source region of the Yellow River, which is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and serves as a major source of domestic and agricultural water supply in the watershed. Multiple spatiotemporal analysis methods, including the S-mode empirical orthogonal function analysis, the inverse distance weighted interpolation, the weighted moving average method, and the Mann-Kendall test method were used to comprehensively analyze the temperatures of 14 meteorological stations at yearly and seasonal scales from 1961 to 2010. The results indicated that (1) general trends of temperature change have been rising, with an especially significant warming trend since the late 1990s; (2) in the last five decades, temperature trends in the study area underwent three stages, namely a cool stage (approximately 1961-1980), a fluctuating stage (approximately 1981-1997), and a warm stage (approximately 1998-2010); and (3) due to the combined effects of monsoons and geographic features, the source region could be divided into three zones according to the annual temperature variations: a low-value zone centered on Henan station in the northeastern edge; a high-value zone situated in the central, southern, and western area; and a transitional zone between the two zones mentioned above. This study is helpful for understanding temperature trends under climate change and can provide a basis for ecological protection.

  15. Underestimation of oxygen deficiency hazard through use of linearized temperature profiles

    SciTech Connect

    Kerby, J.

    1989-06-15

    The failure mode analysis for any cryogenic system includes the effects of a large liquid spill due to vessel rupture or overfilling. The Oxygen Deficiency Hazard (ODH) analysis for this event is a strong function of the estimated heat flux entering the spilled liquid. A common method for estimating the heat flux is to treat the surface on which the liquid spills as a semi-infinite solid. This note addresses the effect of linearizing the temperature profile in this form of analysis, and shows it to cause the calculated flux to be underestimated by more than a factor of two. 3 refs., 2 figs.

  16. Cluster solver for dynamical mean-field theory with linear scaling in inverse temperature.

    PubMed

    Khatami, E; Lee, C R; Bai, Z J; Scalettar, R T; Jarrell, M

    2010-05-01

    Dynamical mean-field theory and its cluster extensions provide a very useful approach for examining phase transitions in model Hamiltonians and, in combination with electronic structure theory, constitute powerful methods to treat strongly correlated materials. The key advantage to the technique is that, unlike competing real-space methods, the sign problem is well controlled in the Hirsch-Fye (HF) quantum Monte Carlo used as an exact cluster solver. However, an important computational bottleneck remains; the HF method scales as the cube of the inverse temperature, ? . This often makes simulations at low temperatures extremely challenging. We present here a method based on determinant quantum Monte Carlo which scales linearly in ? , with a quadratic term that comes in to play for the number of time slices larger than hundred, and demonstrate that the sign problem is identical to HF. PMID:20866350

  17. Low-temperature dynamics of weakly localized Frenkel excitons in disordered linear chains.

    PubMed

    Bednarz, M; Malyshev, V A; Knoester, J

    2004-02-22

    We calculate the temperature dependence of the fluorescence Stokes shift and the fluorescence decay time in linear Frenkel exciton systems resulting from the thermal redistribution of exciton population over the band states. The following factors, relevant to common experimental conditions, are accounted for in our kinetic model: (weak) localization of the exciton states by static disorder, coupling of the localized excitons to vibrations in the host medium, a possible nonequilibrium of the subsystem of localized Frenkel excitons on the time scale of the emission process, and different excitation conditions (resonant or nonresonant). A Pauli master equation, with microscopically calculated transition rates, is used to describe the redistribution of the exciton population over the manifold of localized exciton states. We find a counterintuitive nonmonotonic temperature dependence of the Stokes shift. In addition, we show that depending on experimental conditions, the observed fluorescence decay time may be determined by vibration-induced intraband relaxation, rather than radiative relaxation to the ground state. The model considered has relevance to a wide variety of materials, such as linear molecular aggregates, conjugated polymers, and polysilanes. PMID:15268548

  18. Local and linear chemical reactivity response functions at finite temperature in density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco-Prez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W.; Gzquez, Jos L.; Vela, Alberto

    2015-12-01

    We explore the local and nonlocal response functions of the grand canonical potential density functional at nonzero temperature. In analogy to the zero-temperature treatment, local (e.g., the average electron density and the local softness) and nonlocal (e.g., the softness kernel) intrinsic response functions are defined as partial derivatives of the grand canonical potential with respect to its thermodynamic variables (i.e., the chemical potential of the electron reservoir and the external potential generated by the atomic nuclei). To define the local and nonlocal response functions of the electron density (e.g., the Fukui function, the linear density response function, and the dual descriptor), we differentiate with respect to the average electron number and the external potential. The well-known mathematical relationships between the intrinsic response functions and the electron-density responses are generalized to nonzero temperature, and we prove that in the zero-temperature limit, our results recover well-known identities from the density functional theory of chemical reactivity. Specific working equations and numerical results are provided for the 3-state ensemble model.

  19. Local and linear chemical reactivity response functions at finite temperature in density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Franco-Prez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W; Gzquez, Jos L; Vela, Alberto

    2015-12-28

    We explore the local and nonlocal response functions of the grand canonical potential density functional at nonzero temperature. In analogy to the zero-temperature treatment, local (e.g., the average electron density and the local softness) and nonlocal (e.g., the softness kernel) intrinsic response functions are defined as partial derivatives of the grand canonical potential with respect to its thermodynamic variables (i.e., the chemical potential of the electron reservoir and the external potential generated by the atomic nuclei). To define the local and nonlocal response functions of the electron density (e.g., the Fukui function, the linear density response function, and the dual descriptor), we differentiate with respect to the average electron number and the external potential. The well-known mathematical relationships between the intrinsic response functions and the electron-density responses are generalized to nonzero temperature, and we prove that in the zero-temperature limit, our results recover well-known identities from the density functional theory of chemical reactivity. Specific working equations and numerical results are provided for the 3-state ensemble model. PMID:26723661

  20. Analysis of linear long-term trend of aerosol optical thickness derived from SeaWiFS using BAER over Europe and South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

    2011-12-01

    The main purposes of the present paper are not only to investigate linear long-term trends of Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) at 443 and 555 nm over regions in Europe and South China, but also to show the uncertainty caused by cloud disturbance in the trend analysis of cloud-free aerosol. These research areas are the densely urbanised and often highly polluted regions. The study uses the Bremen AErosol Retrieval (BAER) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data for AOT retrievals in the specified regions from October 1997 to May 2008. In order to validate the individually retrieved AOTs and the corresponding trends, AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data have been used. The retrieved AOTs were in good agreement with those of AERONET (0.79 ? R ? 0.88, 0.08 ? RMSD ? 0.13). The contamination of the aerosol retrievals and/or AERONET observations by thin clouds can significantly degrade the AOT and lead to statistically non-representative monthly-means, especially during cloudy seasons. Therefore an inter-correction method has been developed and applied. The "corrected" trends for both BAER SeaWiFS and AERONET AOT were similar and showed in average a relative difference of ∼25.19%. In general terms, negative trends (decrease of aerosol loading) were mainly observed over European regions, with magnitudes up to -0.00453 and -0.00484 yr-1 at 443 and 555 nm, respectively. In contrast, the trend in Pearl River Delta was positive, most likely attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization. The magnitudes of AOT increased by +0.00761 and +0.00625 yr-1 respectively at 443 and 555 nm.

  1. Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulter, B.; Pederson, N.; Liu, H.; Zhu, Z.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ciais, P.; Davi, N.; Frank, D. C.; Leland, C.; Myneni, R.; Piao, S.; Wang, T.

    2012-12-01

    Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate and their response to climate change will depend on interactions between temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. For example, interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This presentation evaluates recent trends in productivity and seasonality of forests located in Inner Asia (Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Long-term trends from satellite observations of FPAR between 1982-2010 show a greening of 21% of the region in spring (March, April May), but with 10% of the area 'browning' during summertime (June, July, August), the results of which are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and eventual increase in forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover.

  2. An objective determination of optimal site locations for detecting expected trends in upper-air temperature and total column ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreher, K.; Bodeker, G. E.; Sigmond, M.

    2015-07-01

    Detection of climate change requires a network of stable ground-based long-term measurements. Building upon earlier work, we first explore requirements of such measurements (such as maximum random uncertainty and sampling frequency) to ensure a minimum random uncertainty in monthly mean temperatures and to ensure effective detection of trends. In agreement with previous work we find that only for individual measurement random uncertainties > 0.2 K does the measurement random uncertainty start to contribute significantly to the random uncertainty in the monthly mean. For trend analysis, we find that the quality of the trend determination is only compromised when the measurement random uncertainty exceeds 2 K and measurements are made just once or twice a month. In the second part of the study we provide guidance on how to most effectively design a measurement network. To this end we developed a method to objectively identify the optimal location of sites for detecting projected trends in upper-air temperatures and total column ozone in the shortest possible time. This is done by first estimating the spatial distribution of the minimum length of time during which measurements have to be made in order to detect projected trends in temperature and ozone. This quantity is calculated from the unforced variance in the signal and the degree of autocorrelation, both estimated from historical data sets and assumed not to change in the future, and the projected trends as estimated from chemistry-climate models. The optimal site locations are then selected by an iterative procedure based on the minimum time required to detect a trend and a minimal distance between different measurement sites. While the optimal sites identified here result from our use of only one of a wide range of objective strategies, these results provide additional incentives for initiating measurement programmes at these sites or, if already in operation, to continue to be supported.

  3. Occurrence, temperature and seasonal trends of ?- and ?-HCH in air (Qubec, Canada)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garmouma, Mourad; Poissant, Laurier

    Atmospheric concentrations of ?- and ?-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) were measured during 1993-1995 along the St. Lawrence River in Qubec, Canada. Average ?- and ?-HCH concentrations (pg/m 3) were St. Anicet: 93-101; Villeroy: 92-42; Mingan: 96-20, respectively. ?-HCH mean concentrations were similar in all sites and appeared to be more influenced by long-range transport than local sources. ?-HCH mean levels in St. Anicet were 2 and 5 times higher than in Villeroy and Mingan, respectively. The time-series of ?-HCH air concentrations at St. Anicet and Villeroy were characterised by highly elevated springtime episodes, which are in agreement with the ?-HCH usage in Qubec as corn seed dressing pesticide. No temporal trend was observed for the ?-HCH in air. Clausius-Clapeyron plots (log conc. vs. 1/ T) showed a stronger correlation between temperature and measured ?-HCH concentrations at St. Anicet and Villeroy than Mingan. On a regional scale, the influence of the local sources of ?-HCH implied a seasonal variability in air concentrations due to its short transport, while at the background site (Mingan), the observed ?- and ?-HCH concentrations in air were the result of its long-range transport and/or water/air gas exchanges.

  4. Effect of recent sea surface temperature trends on the Arctic stratospheric vortex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Hurwitz, M. M.; Oman, L. D.

    2015-06-01

    Comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments and observational data are used to show that up to half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically and radiatively active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs and cooling of the tropical Pacific have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone loss is larger in the presence of changing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  5. Climatology and trends of mesospheric (58-90) temperatures based upon 1982-1986 SME limb scattering profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.

    1989-01-01

    Atmospheric temperature profiles for the altitude range 58-90 km were calculated using data on global UV limb radiances from the SME satellite. The major elements of this climatology include a high vertical resolution (about 4 km) and the coverage of the 70-90 km altitude region. The analysis of this extensive data set provides a global definition of mesospheric-lower thermospheric temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period. The observations suggest a pattern of 1-2 K/year decreases in temperatures at 80-90-km altitudes accompanied by 0.5-1.5 K/year increases in temperatures at 65-80-km altitudes.

  6. How well does the ERA-Interim reanalysis replicate trends in extremes of surface temperature across Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornes, R. C.; Jones, P. D.

    2013-09-01

    Trends in extremes of daily maximum and minimum temperature across Europe derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are compared against observed data. The period 1980-2011 is considered and both station series and the gridded E-OBS data are used to determine the success of the reanalysis, with indices of the numbers of days above or respectively below the 90th and 10th percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature used as metrics. It is shown in this paper that the ERA-Interim reanalysis data are generally very good at replicating both the seasonally and spatially varying trends in the indices across Europe. At the station level, the reanalysis data are also able to depict the observed trends remarkably well. However, the success of the reanalysis data depends on the season and the particular index considered. The reanalysis is least successful in replicating trends in the number of days exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, particularly during the summer season. The success of the reanalysis is also somewhat dependent on the time step of the reanalysis data used. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures calculated from the 3-hourly time step reanalysis data tend to be more reliable than those derived from the 12-hourly data.

  7. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  8. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  9. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-08-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  10. A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Nio events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the Artic between 2002 and 2007, which has since level off, but no significant trend in the Antarctic. The AIRS results since 2002 are confirmed by IASI data since 2007. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  11. Monitoring of vulcanization process using measurement of electrical properties during linear increasing temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seliga, E.; Bok, O.; Kotial, P.; Dvo?k, Z.; Kubliha, M.; Minrik, S.; Laba, V.

    2015-04-01

    The article presents the possibilities of diagnostics of irreversible chemical reaction - vulcanization in case of laboratory prepared rubber mixture based on styrene - butadiene (SBR) using measurements of selected physical parameters. Our work is focused on the measurement of current rheologic parameters (torque at defined shear deformation) and selected electrical parameters (DC conductivity) during linear increasing temperature. The individual steps of vulcanization are well identified by means of measurements of rheologic parameters, while significantly affecting the value of the electrical conductivity. The value of the electrical conductivity increases with the increasing of rate of the crossbridging reactions during vulcanization. The rate of the heating affects both types of measurements. When the rate of the heating is increasing the temperature of the beginning of networking step of reactions and also the rate of vulcanization grow. The sensitivity of the both types of measurements allows a good mathematical description of the temperature dependence of the torque and the electric conductivity during the vulcanization of rubber mixtures based on SBR.

  12. Analysis of linear long-term trend of aerosol optical thickness derived from SeaWiFS using BAER over Europe and South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

    2011-07-01

    The main purpose of the present paper is to derive and discuss linear long-term trends of Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) at 443 and 555 nm over regions in Europe and South China. These areas are densely populated and highly polluted. The study uses the Bremen AErosol Retrieval (BAER) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data for AOT retrievals in the specified regions from October 1997 to May 2008. In order to validate the individually retrieved AOTs and the corresponding trends, AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data have been used. The retrieved AOTs were in good agreement with those of AERONET (0.79 ? R ? 0.88, 0.08 ? RMSD ? 0.13). The contamination of BAER aerosol retrievals and/or AERONET observations by thin clouds can significantly degrade the AOT and lead to statistically non-representative monthly-means, especially during cloudy seasons. Therefore an inter-correction method has been developed and applied. The "corrected" trends for both BAER SeaWiFS and AERONET AOT were similar having an average of relative error ~25.19 %. In general terms, negative trends (decrease of aerosol loading) were mainly observed over European regions, with magnitudes up to -0.00453 (-1.93 %) and -0.00484 (-2.35 %) per year at 443 and 555 nm, respectively. In contrast, the trend in Pearl River Delta was positive, most likely attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization. The magnitudes of AOT increased by +0.00761 (+1.24 %) and +0.00625 (+1.15 %) per year respectively at 443 and 555 nm.

  13. Temperature dependence of electro-optic effect and natural linear birefringence in quartz measured by low-coherence interferometry.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, Vadim; Levichev, Maxim; Nozdrin, Yuri; Novikov, Mikhail

    2015-11-20

    Temperature dependencies of the half-wave voltage and natural linear birefringence in mechanically free quartz are measured at 1560nm in the temperature range of 85-310K. Measurements are carried out using a low-coherence interferometric scheme with a pair of identical quartz crystals independently linked with a scanning Michelson interferometer. Half-wave voltage V11 driven by an electro-optic coefficient r11 grows from 868kV at 85K to 923kV at 310K. The temperature derivative of natural linear birefringence ?n has nearly linear temperature dependence: ??n/?T=-7.26010-7-9.9310-10??T?K-1. Moderate temperature dependence of the electro-optic effect, along with other properties, makes quartz an appropriate sensing medium for electro-optic voltage sensors for the electric power industry. PMID:26836557

  14. Experimental Verification of the Linear Theory for Stimulated Raman Scattering in High-Temperature Hohlraum Plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Froula, D H; Divol, L; London, R A; Berger, R L; Doppner, T; Meezan, N B; Ross, J S; Suter, L J; Sorce, C; Glenzer, S H

    2009-04-22

    We show that the measured stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) in a large-scale high-temperature plasma scales strongly with the plasma density, increasing by an order of magnitude when the electron density is increased by 20%. This is consistent with linear theory in a uniform plasma and will set the limit on drive laser beam intensity for forthcoming ignition experiments at the National Ignition Facility. Control of SRS at laser intensities consistent with 285 eV ignition hohlraums are achieved by using polarization smoothing which increases the intensity threshold for the onset of SRS by 1.6 {+-} 0.2. These results were quantitatively predicted by full beam 3-dimensional numerical laser-plasma interaction simulations.

  15. Thermal inactivation kinetics of Bacillus stearothermophilus spores using a linear temperature program.

    PubMed

    Leontidis, S; Fernndez, A; Rodrigo, C; Fernndez, P S; Magraner, L; Martnez, A

    1999-08-01

    A systematic study of the inactivation kinetics of Bacillus stearothermophilus spores was carried out in nonisothermic heating conditions using a linear temperature increase program and analyzing the experimental data by means of a one-step nonlinear regression. The D and z values estimated are close to those obtained in isothermic conditions and estimated by using a two-step model, first D values are calculated, and then in the second step a z value is deduced (D(121 degrees C) = 3.08 and 4.38 min, respectively, and z = 7 and 7.9 degrees C, respectively). No convergence problems were observed when using the one-step nonlinear regression proposed. The results indicated that the methodology applied in this study can be used to obtain kinetic data for bacterial spores, which could mean a significant reduction in the amount of experimental work employed to generate these data. PMID:10456754

  16. Modeled Global vs. Coastal Impacts on 1970 and 2005 Summer Daytime Temperature Trends in Coastal California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habtezion, B. L.; Gonzalez, J.; Bornstein, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    California summertime July to August (JJA) mean monthly air temperatures (1970-2005) were analyzed for two California air basins: South Coast (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), which extended into the Central Valley (CV). Daily Tmin and Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of and Tmax values trends for each air basin. Results showed concurrent cooling in coastal areas and warming at further inland areas. This pattern suggests that the regional-warming of inland areas resulted in increased coastal sea breeze activity. Further investigations by use of mesoscale model simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meso-met model with a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km on an inner grid over SoCAB were undertaken to investigate the effects of long-term changes due to green house gas (GHG) warming and land-use land-cover changes on coastal flows. Comparison of simulated present (2000-4) and past climate (1970-4) conditions showed significant increases in sea breeze activity and thus coastal cooling, which supports the observational analysis results that coastal cooling is an indirect “reverse reaction” of GHG warming. The magnitude and location of the simulated and observed coastal-cooling region were in good agreement. Urbanization effects on coastal environment were twofold: increased urban mechanical surface roughness retards sea breeze flows, while urban heat islands (UHIs) enhance them. Significant beneficial societal impacts will result from this observed reverse-reaction to global-warming, especially during UHI-growth periods, include decreased maximum: agricultural production, O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels. Similar “reverse-reaction” effects should be found in other mid-latitude western coastal-regions.

  17. Looking back and looking forwards: Historical and future trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, Idham; Atkinson, Peter M.; Challenor, Peter

    2016-03-01

    The ocean warming trend is a well-known global phenomenon. As early as 2001, and then reiterated in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global average sea surface temperature (SST) will increase by about 0.2 °C per decade. To date, however, only a limited number of studies have been published reporting the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the Indo-Pacific region, one the richest marine ecosystems on Earth. In this research, the monthly 1° spatial resolution NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature (SST) V2 dataset (OISSTv2) derived from measurements made by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and in situ measurements, were used to examine the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the region. The multi-model mean SST from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6) mitigation scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was also used to forecast future SST from 2020 to 2100, decadally. Three variables from the OISSTv2, namely maximum (MaxSST), mean (MeanSST) and minimum (MinSST) monthly mean SST, were regressed against time measured in months from 1982 to 2010 using linear regression. Results revealed warming trends detected for all three SST variables. In the Coral Triangle a warming trend with a rate of 0.013 °C year-1, 0.017 °C year-1, and 0.019 °C year-1 was detected over 29 years for MaxSST, MeanSST and MinSST, respectively. In the SCS, the warming rate was 0.011 °C year-1, (MaxSST), 0.012 °C year-1 (MeanSST) and 0.015 °C year-1 (MinSST) over 29 years. The CMIP5 RCP2.6 forecast suggested a future warming rate to 2100 of 0.004 °C year-1 for both areas, and for all three SST variables. The warming trends reported in this study provide useful insights for improved marine-related management.

  18. Investigation of sea level anomalies related with NAO along the west coasts of Turkey and their consistency with sea surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogan, Mustafa; Cigizoglu, H. Kerem; Sanli, D. Ugur; Ulke, Asli

    2015-07-01

    It is well-known that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is one of the large-scaled climate modes effective in the Northern Hemisphere, has a considerable affect on the water resources and climatic indicators especially in the Mediterranean basin. In recent years, also crucial studies about the sea level rise in relation to climate change have been accelerated. Turkey has about 20 modernized tide gauge stations equipped with permanent GPS receivers and targets to contribute to global sea level rise studies in the future. The aim of this study is to find out the effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on the national shores using the data of four tide-gauge stations located on the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of Turkey. Implications from these four tide gauges would motivate researches to take into account the effect of NAO in calculating the true sea level rise at the national coasts. While studying the sea level changes, vertical crustal movement has been observed using the data of tide gauge GPS stations, and this situation has been taken into consideration in the evaluation of sea levels. Besides, in order to investigate the influences of thermal expansion on sea levels, sea surface temperature data of the meteorology stations near the tide gauges have been evaluated. The homogeneity of the data sets was analyzed using four statistical tests. As a result, all of the meteorology stations' temperature series and tide gauges' data are subjected to trend detection after the homogeneity analysis. Eventually, the effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on both sea levels and sea surface temperatures have been introduced. The study results indicate high correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation and the sea level and sea surface temperature events. It is seen that the linear correlation between the sea level trends of the considered stations and the sea surface temperature data of the related meteorology stations is considerably significant.

  19. Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2014-11-01

    Recently Gil-Alana et al. (2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function at the “zero” frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis that the Sun influences significantly global temperatures. I will show that: (1) the “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function of the global surface temperature at the “zero” frequency does not exist-the observed pattern derives from the post 1880 warming trend of the temperature signal and is a typical misinterpretation that discrete power spectra of non-stationary signals can suggest; (2) appropriate continuous periodograms clarify the issue and also show a signature of the 11-year solar cycle (amplitude ≤0.1 °C), which since 1850 has an average period of about 10.4 year, and of many other natural oscillations; (3) the solar signature in the surface temperature record can be recognized only using specific techniques of analysis that take into account non-linearity and filtering of the multiple climate change contributions; (4) the post 1880-year temperature warming trend cannot be compared or studied against the sunspot record and its 11-year cycle, but requires solar proxy models showing short and long scale oscillations plus the contribution of anthropogenic forcings, as done in the literature. Multiple evidences suggest that global temperatures and sunspot numbers are quite related to each other at multiple time scales. Thus, they are characterized by cyclical fractional models. However, solar and climatic indexes are related to each other through complex and non-linear processes. Finally, I show that the prediction of a semi-empirical model for the global surface temperature based on astronomical oscillations and anthropogenic forcing proposed by Scafetta since 2009 has, up to date, been successful.

  20. A SiC NMOS Linear Voltage Regulator for High-Temperature Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Valle-Mayorga, JA; Rahman, A; Mantooth, HA

    2014-05-01

    The first SiC integrated circuit linear voltage regulator is reported. The voltage regulator uses a 20-V supply and generates an output of 15 V, adjustable down to 10 V. It was designed for loads of up to 2 A over a temperature range of 25-225 degrees C. It was, however, successfully tested up to 300 degrees C. The voltage regulator demonstrated load regulations of 1.49% and 9% for a 2-A load at temperatures of 25 and 300 degrees C, respectively. However, the load regulation is less than 2% up to 300 degrees C for a 1-A load. The line regulation with a 2-A load at 25 and 300 degrees C was 17 and 296 mV/V, respectively. The regulator was fabricated in a Cree 4H-SiC 2-mu m experimental process and consists of 1000, 32/2-mu m NMOS depletion MOSFETs as the pass device, an integrated error amplifier with enhancement MOSFETs, and resistor loads, and uses external feedback and compensation networks to ensure operational integrity. It was designed to be integrated with high-voltage vertical power MOSFETs on the same SiC substrate. It also serves as a guide to future attempts for voltage regulation in any type of integrated SiC circuitry.

  1. A high temperature hybrid photovoltaic-thermal receiver employing spectral beam splitting for linear solar concentrators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mojiri, Ahmad; Stanley, Cameron; Rosengarten, Gary

    2015-09-01

    Hybrid photovoltaic/thermal (PV-T) solar collectors are capable of delivering heat and electricity concurrently. Implementing such receivers in linear concentrators for high temperature applications need special considerations such as thermal decoupling of the photovoltaic (pv) cells from the thermal receiver. Spectral beam splitting of concentrated light provides an option for achieving this purpose. In this paper we introduce a relatively simple hybrid receiver configuration that spectrally splits the light between a high temperature thermal fluid and silicon pv cells using volumetric light filtering by semi-conductor doped glass and propylene glycol. We analysed the optical performance of this device theoretically using ray tracing and experimentally through the construction and testing of a full scale prototype. The receiver was mounted on a commercial parabolic trough concentrator in an outdoor experiment. The prototype receiver delivered heat and electricity at total thermal efficiency of 44% and electrical efficiency of 3.9% measured relative to the total beam energy incident on the primary mirror.

  2. Mesoscopic Aligned and Cu-Coordinated Surface Linear Polymerization at Low Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qing; Owens, Jonathan R.; Han, Chengbo; Fuentes-Cabrera, Miguel; Sumpter, Bobby G.; Lu, Wenchang; Bernholc, Jerry; Maksymovych, Petro; Meunier, Vincent; Pan, Minghu

    2013-03-01

    The on-surface synthesis of covalent organic aggregates and networks has received considerable attention. However, most of the polymerization reactions require high temperatures to overcome the activation barrier. We demonstrate a surface-coordinated linear polymerization, which occurred at 100 K and forms long chain that are well-organized into a ``circuit-board'' pattern on Cu(100) surface. This highly strained 1D conjugated polymer alters greatly the electronic structure compared to unperturbed polymer and it was investigated by electronic and vibrational spectroscopies, as well as ab initio calculations. More importantly, the processes of polymerization and depolymerization can be controlled locally at the nanoscale by a using a charged metal tip. This work thus demonstrates the feasibility of accessing and controlling chain-growth polymerization at low temperature that may lead to the bottom-up construction of sophisticated architectures for molecular nano-devices. Research was conducted at the Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences and sponsored by the Division of Scientific User Facilities, US DOE

  3. Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

    2015-05-01

    During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 1998/1999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal-scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDO's phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres, even though the PDO's net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well. However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes/trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors: anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific, including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDO's contributions. Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

  4. Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

    2016-02-01

    During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 1998/1999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal-scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDO's phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres, even though the PDO's net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well. However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes/trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors: anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific, including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDO's contributions. Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

  5. Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Michael J.; Sheridan, Scott C.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between all-cause mortality and extreme temperature events (ETEs) from 1975 to 2004. For 50 U.S. locations, these heat and cold events were defined based on location-specific thresholds of daily mean apparent temperature. Heat days were defined by a 3-day mean apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile while extreme heat days were greater than the 97.5th percentile. Similarly, calculations for cold and extreme cold days relied upon the 5th and 2.5th percentiles. A distributed lag non-linear model assessed the relationship between mortality and ETEs for a cumulative 14-day period following exposure. Subsets for season and duration effect denote the differences between early- and late-season as well as short and long ETEs. While longer-lasting heat days resulted in elevated mortality, early season events also impacted mortality outcomes. Over the course of the summer season, heat-related risk decreased, though prolonged heat days still had a greater influence on mortality. Unlike heat, cold-related risk was greatest in more southerly locations. Risk was highest for early season cold events and decreased over the course of the winter season. Statistically, short episodes of cold showed the highest relative risk, suggesting unsettled weather conditions may have some relationship to cold-related mortality. For both heat and cold, results indicate higher risk to the more extreme thresholds. Risk values provide further insight into the role of adaptation, geographical variability, and acclimatization with respect to ETEs.

  6. Low temperature growth of diamond films on optical fibers using Linear Antenna CVD system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficek, M.; Drijkoningen, S.; Karczewski, J.; Bogdanowicz, R.; Haenen, K.

    2016-01-01

    It is not trivial to achieve a good quality diamond-coated fibre interface due to a large difference in the properties and composition of the diamond films (or use coating even) and the optical fibre material, i.e. fused silica. One of the biggest problems is the high temperature during the deposition which influences the optical fibre or optical fibre sensor structure (e.g. long-period gratings (LPG)). The greatest advantage of a linear antenna microwave plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition system (LA MW CVD) is the fact that it allows to grow the diamond layers at low temperature (below 300°C) [1]. High quality nanocrystalline diamond (NCD) thin films with thicknesses ranging from 70 nm to 150 nm, were deposited on silicon, glass and optical fibre substrates [2]. Substrates pretreatment by dip-coating and spin coating process with a dispersion consisting of detonation nanodiamond (DND) in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) has been applied. During the deposition process the continuous mode of operation of the LA MW CVD system was used, which produces a continuous wave at a maximum power of 1.9 kW (in each antenna). Diamond films on optical fibres were obtained at temperatures below 350°C, providing a clear improvement of results compared to our earlier work [3]. The samples were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging to investigate the morphology of the nanocrystalline diamond films. The film growth rate, film thickness, and optical properties in the VIS-NIR range, i.e. refractive index and extinction coefficient will be discussed based on measurements on reference quartz plates by using spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE).

  7. Continuous salinity and temperature data from san francisco estuary, 19822002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shellenbarger, G.G.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinityfreshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from -0.0020 to -0.0096 (m3 s-1) -1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.61.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable. ?? 2011 Coastal Education & Research Foundation.

  8. Day-to-day temperature variability trends in 160- to 275-year-long European instrumental records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moberg, A.; Jones, P. D.; Barriendos, M.; BergstrM, H.; Camuffo, D.; Cocheo, C.; Davies, T. D.; DemarE, G.; Martin-Vide, J.; Maugeri, M.; Rodriguez, R.; Verhoeve, T.

    2000-09-01

    Day-to-day temperature variability is investigated in eight European series of daily mean temperatures beginning between 1722 and 1833. Eight statistical measures of day-to-day temperature variability are compared. The intramonthly standard deviation of daily temperature anomalies is found to be a good measure. The absolute change in temperature anomaly from one day to the next is sensitive to changes in observational procedures and is suggested as a diagnostic tool for identification of inhomogeneities in instrumental temperature series. Because many changes in observational procedures have taken place, quantitative estimates of trends in day-to-day variability, based on all series, could only be calculated for 1880-1998. A trend analysis over this period indicates an increase by 5% in southwest Europe, 0 to -5% change in the northwest, and a decrease by 5 to 10% in northeast Europe. On a longer time perspective, day-to-day temperature variability in winter, spring, and autumn in northern Europe has decreased over the last 200-250 years. The frequency of extremely cold winter days in northern Europe was lower in the twentieth century than in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Day-to-day temperature variability in winter in northern Europe was negatively correlated with a North Atlantic Oscillation index in the period 1826-1997, but some other factor must also have contributed to the long-term variability decrease. More long daily temperature series, and development of homogenization methods for such data, are needed for an improved knowledge of long-term changes in day-to-day temperature variability.

  9. Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901-99

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moberg, Anders; Jones, Philip D.

    2005-07-01

    We analyse 20th century trends in six indices for precipitation extremes and four indices for temperature extremes, calculated from daily observational data for European stations. The indices chosen reflect rather moderate extremes. Most of the 80 stations used are situated in central and western Europe; therefore, results mainly refer to this region. Trends are calculated over 1901-99, 1921-99, 1901-50 and 1946-99. Two different trend estimators are used, and significance is assessed with a bootstrap technique. We find that: Significant increasing precipitation trends over the 20th century dominate in winter for both average precipitation intensity and moderately strong events. Simultaneously, the length of dry spells generally increased insignificantly. There are few significant trends of any sign for precipitation indices in summer, but there are insignificant drying trends over Scandinavia and wetting trends over central and western Europe for 1921-99. The length of dry spells in summer generally increased insignificantly. Both the warm and cold tails of the temperature distribution in winter warmed over the entire 20th century. Notably low values in the cold tail for daily Tmax and Tmin occurred in the early 1940s, leading to strong but insignificant negative trends for 1901-50, whereas little change occurred before 1940. Warming of winters during 1946-99 occurred in both the warm and cold tails for both Tmax and Tmin, with the largest warming in the cold tail for Tmin. The warm tail of daily Tmin (and to a smaller extent Tmax) in summer warmed significantly during the past century. There is more evidence for summer warming in the first half of the century compared with the second half. During 1946-99, the warm tail of daily Tmax in summer was generally warming while the cold tail was cooling (both insignificantly). More digitized daily observational data from various European sub-regions are needed to permit a spatially more extensive analysis of changes in climate extremes over the last century.

  10. Elevation-Dependent Temperature Trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: Changes over a 56- and 20-Year Record

    PubMed Central

    McGuire, Chris R.; Nufio, César R.; Bowers, M. Deane; Guralnick, Robert P.

    2012-01-01

    Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953–2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989–2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change. PMID:22970205

  11. Changing trends and abrupt features of extreme temperature in mainland China during 1960 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, S.; Qi, Y.; Han, G.; Zhou, G.

    2015-05-01

    A few researches based on the 10th (90th) percentiles as thresholds had presented to assess moderate extremes in China. However, there has been very little research reported on the occurrences of high extremes warm days (TX95p and TX99p) and cold nights (TN05p and TN01p) according to 95th or 99th (5th or 1st) percentiles which has more directly impacts on society and ecosystem systems. The study showed: (1) the frequencies of TX95p and TX99p averagely increased by 1.80 days/10 a and 0.62 days/10 a respectively in all stations of mainland China, and TX95p in 50.42 % and TX99p in 58.21 % of the stations increased significantly, but TN05p in 83.76 % and TN01p in 76.48 % of stations decreased significantly, and the frequencies of TN05p and TN01p averagely decreased by 3.18 days/10 a and 1.01 days/10 a respectively in all stations, (2) except in Central China, other regions of China showed an increasing trend in TX95p and TX99p, but vast majority of the mainland China showed a decreasing trend in TN5p and TN01p; and (3) the trends of TX95p and TX99p mutations time were in about 1990s or 2000s, but the trends of TN05p and TN01p has mutated in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After the mutation, the increasing trend of warm day and hot day is greater than before in most regions which indicated that more potential risk of heatwaves in future, but the decreasing trend of cold day and frozen day is not enlarge than before.

  12. Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Role in Intensifying the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Siyao; Li, Jian; Yu, Rucong; Chen, Haoming

    2015-01-01

    At the beginning of the 21st century, the July and August (JA) mean upper-tropospheric temperature over East Asia shows a significant increasing trend, contrary to the decreasing trend in the late 1970?s. The largest warming center is over northern China (between 30N45N and 85E120E) around 300?hPa. Together with the temperature rising, the geo-potential height rises above the warming center and drops below, which connects closely to a correspondingly significant decadal shift of the general circulation over East Asia. In the upper-level of the troposphere, an anomalous anti-cyclone dominates, and the 200hPa westerly jet strengthens due to the increasing pole-ward geo-potential height gradient. In the lower-troposphere, the anomalous southerly wind increases around Yangtze River Valley and the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. The integrated circulation changes seriously impact summer precipitation over East Asia. The so-called southern flood and northern drought (SFND) pattern since the 1970?s over eastern China has changed. As the cooling center in the 1970?s moves southward, the dry belt moves southward as well. A wet belt dominates the Huaihe River Valley after the temperature trend reversal at 2005 while southern China experiences a dry condition. PMID:26135966

  13. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Penland, C.; Matrosova, L.

    1998-03-01

    The predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales by linear inverse modeling is quantified. The authors find that predictability of Caribbean Sea and north tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) is enhanced when one uses global tropical SSTAs as predictors compared with using only tropical Atlantic predictors. This predictability advantage does not carry over into the equatorial and south tropical Atlantic; indeed, persistence is a competitive predictor in those regions. To help resolve the issue of whether or not the dipole structure found by applying empirical orthogonal function analysis to tropical Atlantic SSTs is an artifact of the technique or a physically real structure, the authors combine empirically derived normal modes and their adjoints to form influence functions, maps highlighting the geographical areas to which the north tropical Atlantic and the south tropical Atlantic SSTs are most sensitive at specified lead times. When the analysis is confined to the Atlantic basin, the 6-month influence functions in the north and south tropical Atlantic tend to be of the opposite sign and evolve into clear dipoles within 6 months. When the analysis is performed on global tropical SSTs, the 6-month influence functions are connected to the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, with the strongest signal in the north tropical Atlantic. That is, while the south tropical Atlantic region is weakly sensitive to the optimal initial structure for growth of El Nino, SST anomaly in the Nino 3 region is a strong 6-month predictor of SST anomaly in the north tropical Atlantic. The results suggest that the tropical Atlantic dipole is a real phenomenon rather than an artifact of EOF analysis but that the influence of the Indo-Pacific often disrupts the northern branch so that the dipole does not dominate tropical Atlantic dynamics on seasonal timescales. 38 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Long-term trends and changes of soil temperature of recent decade in the permafrost zone of Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherstiukov, A.

    2013-12-01

    The northern regions of Russia have rich natural resources (oil, gas). In recent years in these areas are increasingly built engineering structure for oil and gas production and their transportation. Current global warming has a great influence on soil condition in the permafrost zone. This can lead to negative effects on buildings and infrastructure which are built on frozen soils. Changes of the soil state in area of permafrost demand serious studying. Next steps have been done for research of this problem: Part 1. a) The daily data set of soil temperature under natural surface at depths up to 320 cm at the Russian meteorological stations has been prepared. The earliest year of data set is 1963, the current version is ending in 2011 (660 stations of Russia). Quality control of original data was performed in creating this data set. b) The data set of computed depth of soil seasonal thawing at the Russian meteorological stations till 2011 has been prepared (107 stations with yearly depth of thawing). Part 2. Changes of soils' condition for the last five decades have been researched based on the prepared data sets. The change of mean annual soil temperature at depths has been researched and soil warming in the vast area for 1963 - 2010 has been shown, the great trends (0,2 0,4C /10 years) increase at 320 cm have been found in Western and Eastern Siberia, and the greatest trends (0,4 0,5C/10 years) are found in their south part. This creates favorable conditions for increase of seasonal thawing depth in a permafrost zone, especially in its south part. The map of average depth of soil seasonal thawing for the same period (1963-2010) was made. It showed that the greatest depths of thawing 300-400 cm were observed near the border of permafrost and the smallest depths 50-250 cm predominate in the area of continuous permafrost. Part 3. Global warming of climate was slowed down from the beginning of the XXI century as it is known from publications. Additional researches of soil temperature change in recent decade showed that positive trends of soil temperature for this decade were changed on negative trends (-0,2 -0,6C/10 years) in the South and the southeast of Western Siberia. The most intensive decrease of soil temperature in this region is observed since 2007. Trends of the thawing depth for permafrost soils were obtained for 2001-2011. Greatest significant positive trends of thawing depth have been obtained in Eastern Siberia (35 cm/year). However, spots with significant negative trends are obtained in central Yakutia, and also to the south of Lake Baikal and near the Kolyma River mouth. Conclusions: 1. Using the Russian daily data set of soil temperature at depths up to 320 cm for last 40-50 years, soil warming is shown over the vast territory of the Russia. Maximum trends at the 320 cm depth are found in the south part of Western and Eastern Siberia. 2. One of the impacts of the current climate changes is the general tendency for the increase in the seasonal thawing depth on the vast territory of Western and Eastern Siberia. 3. In recent decade the tendency of soil temperature decrease has been appeared in south part of Western Siberia near south border of permafrost also decrease of seasonal thawing depth has been appeared in some regions. The work was done with the financial support of RFBR (project 11-05-00691).

  15. Evolutionary trends in high temperature superconductivity. (Latest citations from the INSPEC database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning experimental and theoretical studies of high temperature superconducting materials. Topics include critical temperatures, transition temperatures, superconducting niobium alloys and rare earth metals, superconducting structure stabilization, and magnetic superconductors. Fabrication and evaluation of high temperature superconducting devices and films are included. (Contains a minimum of 75 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  16. The spin temperature of NH3 in Comet C/1999S4 (LINEAR).

    PubMed

    Kawakita, H; Watanabe, J; Ando, H; Aoki, W; Fuse, T; Honda, S; Izumiura, H; Kajino, T; Kambe, E; Kawanomoto, S; Noguchi, K; Okita, K; Sadakane, K; Sato, B; Takada-Hidai, M; Takeda, Y; Usuda, T; Watanabe, E; Yoshida, M

    2001-11-01

    A high-dispersion spectrum of Comet C/1999S4 (LINEAR) was obtained in the optical region with the high-dispersion spectrograph on the Subaru telescope when the comet was 0.863 astronomical units from the Sun before its disintegration. We obtained high signal-to-noise ratio emission lines of the cometary NH2 bands from which an ortho-to-para ratio (OPR) of 3.33 +/- 0.07 was derived on the basis of a fluorescence excitation model. Assuming that cometary NH2 mainly originates from ammonia through photodissociation, the derived OPR of NH2 molecules should reflect that of ammonia, which provides information on the environment of molecular formation or condensation and of the thermal history of cometary ices. Assuming that the OPR of ammonia in comets was unchanged in the nucleus, the derived spin temperature of ammonia (28 +/- 2 kelvin) suggests that a formation region of the cometary ammonia ice was between the orbit of Saturn and that of Uranus in the solar nebula. PMID:11691989

  17. Ostracod body size trends do not follow either Bergmann's rule or Cope's rule during periods of constant temperature increase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Seshadri, P.; Amin, V.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2013-12-01

    Over time, organisms have adapted to changing environments by evolving to be larger or smaller. Scientists have described body-size trends using two generalized theories. Bergmann's rule states that body size is inversely related to temperature, and Cope's rule establishes an increase over time. Cope's rule has been hypothesized as a temporal manifestation of Bergmann's rule, as the temperature of the Earth has consistently decreased over time and mean body size has increased. However, during times of constant temperature increase, Bergmann's rule and Cope's rule predict opposite effects on body size. Our goal was to clarify this relationship using both accessible proxies of historic temperature - atmospheric CO2 levels and paleo-latitude. We measured ostracod lengths throughout the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras (using the Catalogue of Ostracoda) and utilized ostracod latitudinal information from the Paleobiology Database. By closely studying body-size trends during four time periods of constant CO2 increase across spectrums of time and latitude, we were able to compare the effects of Cope's and Bergmann's rule. The correlation, p-values, and slopes of each of our graphs showed that there is no clear relationship between body size and each of these rules in times of temperature increase, both latitudinally and temporally. Therefore, both Cope's and Bergmann's rule act on marine ostracods and no rule is dominant, though our results more strongly disprove the latitudinal variation in ostracod size.

  18. Relationship between sunshine duration and temperature trends across Europe since the second half of the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besselaar, E. J. M.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Wild, M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Laat, A. T. J.

    2015-10-01

    Global radiation is a fundamental source of energy in the climate system. A significant impact of global radiation on temperature change is expected due to the widespread dimming/brightening phenomenon observed since the second half of the twentieth century. This work describes the analysis of 312 stations with sunshine duration (SD) series, a proxy for global radiation, and temperature series in the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) with data over the period 1961-2010. The relationship between SD and temperature series is analyzed for four temperature variables: maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The analyses are performed on annual and seasonal basis. The results show strong positive correlations between SD and temperatures over Europe, with highest correlation for DTR and Tmax during the summer period. These results confirm the strong relationship between SD and temperature trends over Europe since the second half of the twentieth century. This study supports previous suggestions that dimming (brightening) has partially decreased (increased) temperatures thereby modulating the greenhouse gas induced warming rates over Europe.

  19. Design of a platinum resistance thermometer temperature measuring transducer and improved accuracy of linearizing the output voltage

    SciTech Connect

    Malygin, V.M.

    1995-06-01

    An improved method is presented for designing a temperature measuring transducer, the electrical circuit of which comprises an unbalanced bridge, in one arm of which is a platinum resistance thermometer, and containing a differential amplifier with feedback. Values are given for the coefficients, the minimum linearization error is determined, and an example is also given of the practical design of the transducer, using the given coefficients. A determination is made of the limiting achievable accuracy in linearizing the output voltage of the measuring transducer, as a function of the range of measured temperature.

  20. Recent trends and variations in Baltic Sea temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elken, Jri; Lehmann, Andreas; Myrberg, Kai

    2015-04-01

    The presentation highlights the results of physical oceanography from BACC II (Second BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin) book based on the review of recent literature published until 2013. We include also information from some more recent publications. A recent warming trend in sea surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by all available methods: in-situ measurements, remote sensing data and modelling tools. In particular, remote sensing data for the period 1990-2008 indicate that the annual mean SST has increased even by 1C per decade, with the greatest increase in the northern Bothnian Bay and also with large increases in the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Riga, and the northern Baltic Proper. Although the increase in the northern areas is affected by the recent decline in the extent and duration of sea ice, and corresponding changes in surface albedo, warming is still evident during all seasons and with the greatest increase occurring in summer. The least warming of surface waters (0.3-0.5C per decade) occurred northeast of Bornholm Island up to and along the Swedish coast, probably owing to an increase in the frequency of coastal upwelling forced by the westerly wind events. Comparing observations with the results of centennial-scale modelling, recent changes in sea water temperature appear to be within the range of the variability observed during the past 500 years. Overall salinity pattern and stratification conditions are controlled by river runoff, wind conditions, and salt water inflows through the Danish straits. The mean top-layer salinity is mainly influenced by the accumulated river runoff, with higher salinity during dry periods and lower salinity during wet periods. Observations reveal a low-salinity period above the halocline starting in the 1980s. The strength of stratification and deep salinity are reduced when the mean zonal wind stress increases, as it occurred since 1987. Major Baltic Inflows of highly saline water of North Sea origin occur sporadically and transport high-saline water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. These inflow events occur when high pressure over the Baltic region with easterly winds is followed by several weeks of strong westerly winds; changes in the inflow activity are related to the frequency of deep cyclones and their pathways over the Baltic area. Major inflows are often followed by a period of stagnation during which saline stratification decreases and oxygen deficiency develops in the deep basins of the central Baltic. Major inflows are usually of barotropic character. They normally occur during winter and spring and transport relatively cold, salty and oxygen-rich waters to the deep basins. Since 1996, another type of inflows have been observed during summer or early autumn. These inflows are of baroclinic character and transport high-saline, but warm and low-oxygen water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. Event-like water exchange and mixing anomalies, driven by specific atmospheric forcing patterns like sequences of deep cyclones, occur also in other parts of the Baltic Sea.

  1. Snowmelt timing (onset and melt-refreeze) trends in the Yukon River basin determined from passive microwave brightness temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semmens, K. A.; Ramage, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    High latitude drainage basins are experiencing increases in temperature higher than the global average with snowmelt dominated basins most sensitive to effects in winter due to snowpack's integration of these changes over the season. This may influence the timing of snowmelt onset and the occurrence of any preceding (early) melt events, resulting in changes in spring runoff and associated flooding, often the most significant hydrologic events of the year. It is therefore critical to be able to understand and model these processes, especially for ungauged basins with little meteorological data. For such basins, passive microwave remote sensing can be utilized; an approach tested in the Yukon River Basin draining more than 850,000 km2 of Alaska and the Yukon Territory. Brightness temperature (Tb) data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) 36.5 V-GHz frequency and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) 37 V-GHz frequency together form a time series from 1988 to 2010, enabling us to detect trends in snowmelt onset timing and the end of melt-refreeze period. Tb encompasses both physical temperature and emissivity with wet snow easily detected by an abrupt increase in emissivity. Tb and diurnal amplitude variation (DAV) thresholds determine dates of melt onset and melt-freeze end (end of high DAV), defined as where thresholds are met for more than three of five consecutive days. Melt that is detected before melt onset and is not sustained for more than three out of five days is classified as an early melt event. Preliminary results of trends in snowmelt onset and occurrence of early melt events suggest sub-basin differences occur with varying landcover, permafrost, and elevation. Of the thirteen sub-basins that comprise the Yukon River basin, five have significant trends toward later melt onset dates, while the northernmost (the Chandalar and Porcupine) have earlier melt onset. The majority of basins with later onset show increasing trends of early melt events, while those with earlier onset have decreasing trends, suggesting winter melt dynamics may affect melt onset later in the year. Significant variability, however, requires further analysis to more definitively determine trends and relationships between the melt parameters.

  2. Multi-decadal surface temperature trends near the Ice Divide of East Antarctica using borehole firn temperature measurements and inversion method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muto, A.; Scambos, T. A.; Steffen, K.

    2008-12-01

    The objective of this investigation is to detect multi-decadal surface temperature trends near the Ice Divide of East Antarctica. The interior of East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) remains as one of the least explored areas on earth. In recent years there have been several studies attempting to reconstruct the surface temperature history of Antarctica for the past 50 years using several approaches. However the lack of in situ data has hindered the science community in reaching a conclusive answer about Antarctic climate change, and in particular for the EAIS. In order to gain a better assessment of Antarctic climate change, additional data sources are needed to reduce the current uncertainty. Surface temperature inversion from firn temperature measurements will provide a source of climate reconstruction independent of firn chemistry, sparse weather data, satellite data or ice cores. During the Norwegian-U.S. IPY Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica, in austral summer of 2007-08, thermal-profiling units were installed at three locations (76.06 S, 22.46 E, Traverse site NUS07-2; 78.65 S, 35.64 E, NUS07-5, 126 km from Plateau Station; 82.07 S, 54.9 E, NUS07-7, 2 km from the Pole of Inaccessibility). Each unit consists of 16 PRTs (Platinum Resistance Thermometers) distributed between 0.2 and 90 m in depth. Wired PRTs were lowered into the borehole after an ice core was drilled and before the hole was back-filled with granulated snow to prevent air circulation and provide thermal conduction between PRTs and firn. Near-hourly data are being transmitted through ARGOS satellite telemetry system. The overall uncertainty in firn temperature measurement is between 0.02 and 0.03 C. Mean temperature gradients between -0.5 and -0.75 C were found between 16 and 90 m at three sites, with standard deviations less then 0.03 C. These gradients are larger than or about the same as previously published studies that modeled temperature profile under a steady-state climatic condition. Our results suggest a cooling to no significant trend near the Ice Divide of East Antarctica for the past several decades. Detailed analysis with the application of inversion method is ongoing to determine how the observed signals in the temperature profiles translate in to magnitudes and temporal scales of the surface temperature trends. A positive temperature gradient, suggesting recent warming, was identified for the top of the Greenland ice sheet (Summit station) and will be discussed in comparison.

  3. Secular temperature trends for the southern Rocky Mountains over the last five centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkelhammer, M.; Stott, L. D.

    2012-09-01

    Pre-instrumental surface temperature variability in the Southwestern United States has traditionally been reconstructed using variations in the annual ring widths of high altitude trees that live near a growth-limiting isotherm. A number of studies have suggested that the response of some trees to temperature variations is non-stationary, warranting the development of alternative approaches towards reconstructing past regional temperature variability. Here we present a five-century temperature reconstruction for a high-altitude site in the Rocky Mountains derived from the oxygen isotopic composition of cellulose (?18Oc) from Bristlecone Pine trees. The record is independent of the co-located growth-based reconstruction while providing the same temporal resolution and absolute age constraints. The empirical correlation between ?18Oc and instrumental temperatures is used to produce a temperature transfer function. A forward-model for cellulose isotope variations, driven by meteorological data and output from an isotope-enabled General Circulation Model, is used to evaluate the processes that propagate the temperature signal to the proxy. The cellulose record documents persistent multidecadal variations in ?18Oc that are attributable to temperature shifts on the order of 1C but no sustained monotonic rise in temperature or a step-like increase since the late 19th century. The isotope-based temperature history is consistent with both regional wood density-based temperature estimates and some sparse early instrumental records.

  4. The temperature dependence of vibronic lineshapes: Linear electron-phonon coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Roos, Claudia; Gauss, Jrgen; Diezemann, Gregor; Khn, Andreas

    2014-10-21

    We calculate the effect of a linear electron-phonon coupling on vibronic transitions of dye molecules of arbitrary complexity. With the assumption of known vibronic frequencies (for instance from quantum-chemical calculations), we give expressions for the absorption or emission lineshapes in a second-order cumulant expansion. We show that the results coincide with those obtained from generalized Redfield theory if one uses the time-local version of the theory and applies the secular approximation. Furthermore, the theory allows to go beyond the Huang-Rhys approximation and can be used to incorporate Dushinsky effects in the treatment of the temperature dependence of optical spectra. We consider both, a pure electron-phonon coupling independent of the molecular vibrations and a coupling bilinear in the molecular vibrational modes and the phonon coordinates. We discuss the behavior of the vibronic density of states for various models for the spectral density representing the coupling of the vibronic system to the harmonic bath. We recover some of the results that have been derived earlier for the spin-boson model and we show that the behavior of the spectral density at low frequencies determines the dominant features of the spectra. In case of the bilinear coupling between the molecular vibrations and the phonons we give analytical expressions for different spectral densities. The spectra are reminiscent of those obtained from the well known Brownian oscillator model and one finds a zero-phonon line and phonon-side bands located at vibrational frequencies of the dye. The intensity of the phonon-side bands diminishes with increasing vibrational frequencies and with decreasing coupling strength (Huang-Rhys factor). It vanishes completely in the Markovian limit where only a Lorentzian zero-phonon line is observed.

  5. Linear temperature dependence of conductivity in the "insulating" regime of dilute two-dimensional holes in GaAs.

    SciTech Connect

    Simmons, Jerry Alvon; Noh, Hwayong; Lilly, Michael Patrick; Tsui, Daniel Chee; West, Ken W.; Pfeiffer, Loren N.

    2003-06-01

    The conductivity of extremely high mobility dilute two-dimensional holes in GaAs changes linearly with temperature in the insulating side of the metal-insulator transition. Hopping conduction, characterized by an exponentially decreasing conductivity with decreasing temperature, is not observed when the conductivity is smaller than e{sup 2}/h. We suggest that strong interactions in a regime close to the Wigner crystallization must be playing a role in the unusual transport.

  6. Long-term trends of biogenic sulfur aerosol and its relationship with sea surface temperature in Arctic Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laing, James R.; Hopke, Philip K.; Hopke, Eleanor F.; Husain, Liaquat; Dutkiewicz, Vincent A.; Paatero, Jussi; Viisanen, Yrj

    2013-10-01

    years of week-long total suspended particle samples from Kevo Finland were analyzed for methane sulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfate. Kevo is located 350 km north of the Arctic Circle. MSA and non-sea-salt sulfate (NSS-SO4) showed clear seasonal trends. MSA peaks from May to July, coinciding with warmer waters and increased biogenic activity in the surrounding seas. NSS-SO4 peaks in March with a minimum during the summer, the typical pattern for Arctic haze. MSA concentrations were found to be positively correlated (p < 0.001) with sea surface temperature anomalies in the surrounding seas. MSA showed a trend of 0.405 ng/m3/yr (0.680%/yr) for June and July. NSS-SO4 concentrations at Kevo declined dramatically in the early 1990s, probably as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The decline has continued since the mid-1990s.

  7. Twelve-month running trends from Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) active-cavity radiometric measurements and global surface temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Dhirendra K.; Lee, Robert B., III; Paden, Jack; Bush, Kathryn A.; Snyder, Dianne; Wilson, Robert S.; Banks, Waldena; Al-Hajjah, Aiman; Thomas, Susan

    2004-02-01

    Four earth-viewing nonscanning active cavity radiometers of the ERBS (Earth Radiation Budget Satellite) have been measuring the radiation arising from the earth-atmosphere system since its" launch day, October 5, 1984. The ERBS spacecraft was placed in a non-sun-synchronous trajectory inclined at 57. Two radiometers out of four, namely the wide field-of-view total (WFOV-T) radiometer which measures the radiation in the total spectral band of 0.2 - 100 ?m, and the wide-field-of-view shortwave (WFOV-SW) radiometer measures the Earth"s reflected radiation in the wavelength region of 0.2 - 5 ?m were used in this study. These sensors were calibrated continuously by observing the in-flight internal black bodies as well as the Sun every two weeks. The WFOV-T channel was found very stable within 0.1%. The monthly flux values of the ERBS nonscanning active cavity radiometers at satellite altitude and the corresponding NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) global surface temperature data for the period of fifteen years (1985-1999) were used in this paper. The effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption is very clearly noticeable in the running trends of both WFOV-T and WFOV-SW radiometric measurements. Further the resulting twelve month running trends derived from the outgoing longwave radiation was found to follow the twelve month running trend determined from the global surface temperature data set. Both trends are real and increasing. The "global-cooling-like" event caused by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption was also found under both day and nighttime conditions.

  8. Non-Linear Association between Exposure to Ambient Temperature and Children’s Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Beijing, China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Meimei; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu; Jia, Lei; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was listed as a notifiable communicable disease in 2008 and is an emerging public health problem in China, especially for children. However, few data are available on the risk assessment of the potential reasons for HFMD in Beijing. This study examined the association of temperature with the incidence of children’s HFMD in Beijing at the daily scale for the first time. Methods A newly developed case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the delayed and cumulative associations of daily temperature with gender- and age-specific HFMD in Beijing, China, during 2010–2012. Relative humidity, day of the week, public holiday, season and long-term trends were controlled in the model. Results Among the total of 113,475 cases, the ratio between males and females was 1.52:1. HFMD was more prevalent in May-July. The temperature-HFMD relationships were non-linear in most age groups except for children aged 6–15 years, with a peak at 25.0~27.5°C. The high-temperature risks were greater, appeared earlier and lasted longer than the low-temperature risks. The relative risks for female children and those aged 6–15 years were higher than those among other groups. Conclusion Rising temperatures increased the incidence of children’s HFMD, with the largest association at 25.0~27.5°C. Females and children aged 6–15 years were more vulnerable to changes in temperature with regard to the transmission of HFMD than males and other age groups, respectively. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other populations. PMID:26010147

  9. Technology trends in high temperature pressure transducers: The impact of micromachining

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mallon, Joseph R., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the implications of micromachining technology on the development of high temperature pressure transducers. The introduction puts forth the thesis that micromachining will be the technology of choice for the next generation of extended temperature range pressure transducers. The term micromachining is defined, the technology is discussed and examples are presented. Several technologies for high temperature pressure transducers are discussed, including silicon on insulator, capacitive, optical, and vibrating element. Specific conclusions are presented along with recommendations for development of the technology.

  10. A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.; Knight, R.W.; Gallo, K.P.; Peterson, T.C. ); Jones, P.D. ); Kukla, G. ); Plummer, N. ); Razuvayev, V. ); Lindseay, J. ); Charlson, R.J. )

    1993-06-01

    In this work, it was concluded that monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass, accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 (0.84[degrees]C versus 0.28[degrees]C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the increase of mean temperature. The asymmetry is detectable in all seasons and in most of the regions studied. The decrease in the daily temperature range is partially related to increases in cloud cover. Furthermore, a large number of atmospheric and surface boundary conditions are shown to differentially affect the maximum and minimum temperature. Linkages of the observed changes in the diurnal temperature range to large-scale climate forcings, such as anthropogenic increases in sulfate aerosols, greenhouse gases, or biomass burning (smoke), remain tentative. Nonetheless, the observed decrease of the diurnal temperature range is clearly important, both scientifically and practically. 36 refs., 9 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of air temperature in Europe and Western Asia using data-coupled clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chidean, Mihaela I.; Muñoz-Bulnes, Jesús; Ramiro-Bargueño, Julio; Caamaño, Antonio J.; Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho

    2015-06-01

    Over the last decades, different machine learning techniques have been used to detect climate change patterns, mostly using data from measuring stations located in different parts of the world. Some previous studies focus on temperature as primary variable of study, though there have been other works focused on precipitation or even wind speed as objective variable. In this paper, we use the self-organized Second Order Data Coupled Clustering (SODCC) algorithm to carry out a spatio-temporal analysis of temperature patterns in Europe. By applying the SODCC we identify three different regimes of spatio-temporal correlations based on their geographical extent: small, medium, and large-scale regimes. Based on these regimes, it is possible to detect a change in the spatio-temporal trend of air temperature, reflecting a shift in the extent of the correlations in stations in the Iberian Peninsula and Southern France. We also identify an oscillating spatio-temporal trend in the Western Asia region and a stable medium-scale regime affecting the British Isles. These results are found to be consistent with previous studies in climate change. The patterns obtained with the SODCC algorithm may represent a signal of climate change to be taken into account, and so the SODCC could be used as detection method.

  12. Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

  13. Uncertainty estimation of the global temperature trends for multiple radiosondes, reanalyses, and CMIP3/IPCC climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jianjun; Powell, Alfred M.

    2012-05-01

    Based on three groups of datasets that include radiosondes, reanalyses, and climate model simulations (e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) from 1979 to 2008, the interannual variability, global temperature trends, and their uncertainty using ensemble spread among intra-group and inter-group datasets have been discussed. The results show that the interannual temperature variability increased from the troposphere to stratosphere, and the maximum occurs around 50 hPa. The CMIP3 climate models have the largest discrepancy in the stratosphere. The intra-group correlations at 500 hPa generally show high similarity within each data group while the inter-group correlations between reanalyses and the CMIP3 climate model simulations indicate lesser similarity. In contrast, the inter-group correlation at 50 hPa is improved except with the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) reanalysis shows a weak cross correlation. The global temperature trends are highly dependent on the individual data sources. Compared to the radiosondes, the reanalyses show a large ensemble spread of trends in the stratosphere, and the CMIP3 climate model simulations have a large ensemble spread in the height of the crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling. The largest ensemble spread among the reanalyses in the stratosphere is mainly from the large discrepancy in the JRA-25 reanalysis after 1998 and a relatively weak anomaly in the 20CR before 1986. The largest ensemble spread among the CMIP3 climate models in the troposphere is related to the influence of both volcanic eruptions and El Nio/La Nia-Southern Oscillation events. The strong anomalies corresponding to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1991 are clearly identified in the stratosphere. These volcanic eruptions reduced the warming in the troposphere and strengthened the cooling in the stratosphere during the most recent 30 years.

  14. Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the Twentieth Century: An Evolution-Centric Analysis of Variability and Trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, B.; Nigam, S.

    2007-12-01

    A consistent analysis of natural variability and secular trend in Pacific SSTs in the 20th century is presented. By focusing on spatial and temporal recurrence, but without imposition of periodicity constraints, this single analysis discriminates between biennial, ENSO and decadal variabilities, leading to refined evolutionary descriptions; and between these natural variability modes and secular trend; all without advance filtering (and potential aliasing) of the SST record. SST anomalies of all four seasons are analyzed together using the extended-EOF technique. Canonical ENSO variability is encapsulated in two modes that depict the growth (east-to-west along the equator) and decay (near-simultaneous amplitude loss across the basin) phases. Another interannual mode, energetic in recent decades, is shown linked to the west-to-east SST development seen in post climate-shift ENSOs; the non- canonical ESNO mode. The mode is closely related to Chiang and Vimont's meridional mode, and leads to some reduction in canonical ENSO's oscillatory tendency. Pacific decadal variability is characterized by two modes: The Pan-Pacific mode has a horse-shoe structure with the closed end skirting the North American coast; and a quiescent eastern equatorial Pacific. The mode exhibits surprising connections to the tropical/subtropical Atlantic, with correlations there resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The second decadal mode---the North Pacific mode---captures the 1976/77 climate shift and is closer to Mantua's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Our analysis shows, perhaps, for the first time, the striking links of the North Pacific mode to the western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs. The physicality of both modes is assessed from correlations with the Pacific biological time series. Finally, the secular trend is characterized: Implicit accommodation of natural variability leads to a non-stationary SST trend, including mid-century cooling. The SST trend is remarkably similar to the global surface air temperature trend. Geographically, a sliver of cooling in found in the central equatorial Pacific in the midst of wide- spread but non-uniform warming in all basins. An extensive suite of sensitivity tests, including counts of the number of observational analogs of the modes in test analyses, support the robustness of this analysis.

  15. The Effect of Temperature and Precipitation Trends on U.S. Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easterling, D. R.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Wallis, T.; Heim, R.; Gleason, B.

    2007-12-01

    Drought in the continental United States (U.S.) is a recurring phenomenon that has shown large natural variability on both the instrumental and paleoclimatic time scales. Recent research examining global changes in drought suggest that drought conditions have increased globally in the last 50 years (Dai et al. 2004). In the U.S. as a whole there is no indication that drought has become more frequent. In some regions, such as the Southwestern U.S. there is evidence that drought has become more prevalent, while in other areas drought has become less frequent. Over the 20th century the U.S. experienced statistically significant increases in both the annually averaged mean temperature and the total annual precipitation. Here we examine the possibility that with the observed increase in temperature and without the observed increase in precipitation, drought conditions since 1950, as defined by the PDSI, over the United States would have been more prevalent. The starting point of 1950 is chosen to include the major droughts of the early 1950s and includes the period in the U.S. temperature record that is roughly the start of a slight temperature decline until the 1970s when U.S. temperatures, like global temperatures, began a strong increase. Results indicate that without the increase in precipitation, the percentage of U.S area in drought would increase substantially, in some years by as much as a 25 percent increase in the area in severe and extreme drought.

  16. A linear regression model for predicting PNW estuarine temperatures in a changing climate

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pacific Northwest coastal regions, estuaries, and associated ecosystems are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, especially to changes in nearshore water temperature. While predictive climate models simulate future air temperatures, no such projections exist for...

  17. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  18. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  19. Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

  20. Oxygen-isotope trends and seawater temperature changes across the Late Cambrian Steptoean positive carbon-isotope excursion (SPICE event)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elrick, M.; Rieboldt, S.; Saltzman, M.; McKay, R.M.

    2011-01-01

    The globally recognized Late Cambrian Steptoean positive C-isotope excursion (SPICE) is characterized by a 3???-5??? positive ??13C shift spanning <4 m.y. Existing hypotheses suggest that the SPICE represents a widespread ocean anoxic event leading to enhanced burial/preservation of organic matter (Corg) and pyrite. We analyzed ??18O values of apatitic inarticulate brachiopods from three Upper Cambrian successions across Laurentia to evaluate paleotemperatures during the SPICE. ??18O values range from ~12.5??? to 16.5???. Estimated seawater temperatures associated with the SPICE are unreasonably warm, suggesting that the brachiopod ??18O values were altered during early diagenesis. Despite this, all three localities show similar trends with respect to the SPICE ??13C curve, suggesting that the brachiopod apatite preserves a record of relative ??18O and temperature changes. The trends include relatively high ??18O values at the onset of the SPICE, decreasing and lowest values during the main event, and an increase in values at the end of the event. The higher ??18O values during the global extinction at the onset of the SPICE suggests seawater cooling and supports earlier hypotheses of upwelling of cool waters onto the shallow shelf. Decreasing and low ??18O values coincident with the rising limb of the SPICE support the hypothesis that seawater warming and associated reduced thermohaline circulation rates contributed to decreased dissolved O2 concentrations, which enhanced the preservation/burial of Corg causing the positive ??13C shift. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  1. The forcing of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases on sub-thermocline temperature trends in the southern subtropical Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowan, T.; Purich, A.; Cai, W.; Rotstayn, L. D.; England, M. H.

    2013-12-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean (IO) experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline IO experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. In the context of understanding the causes of the sub-thermocline temperature changes, we use a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced with natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and as well as individual forcing runs. We use these to: (i) examine whether the sub-thermocline cooling and/or rapid warming of the tropical/subtropical IO is anthropogenic or naturally forced; and (ii) assess future projections of the sub-thermocline temperatures in the mid twenty-first century from available model output. Results suggest that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern IO was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the middle of the twenty-first century. The timing of the commencement of this warming appears dependent on the total change in anthropogenic aerosol levels, with models exhibiting a strong (weak) decline in future aerosols simulating a greater (weaker) magnitude of warming after the occurrence of peak aerosols. The role of greenhouse gases in forcing sub-thermocline temperature trends in the IO in the future remains to be determined. Despite this, it is clear is that as human generated aerosols continue to decline over the coming century, the subsurface ocean circulation will respond accordingly through an acceleration in the warming.

  2. Correlation and Trend Studies of the Sea Ice Cover and Surface Temperatures in the Arctic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Co-registered and continuous satellite data of sea ice concentrations and surface ice temperatures from 1981 to 1999 are analyzed to evaluate relationships between these two critical climate parameters and what they reveal in tandem about the changing Arctic environment. During the 18-year period, the actual Arctic ice area is shown to be declining at a rate of 3.1 +/- 0.4 % /decade while the surface ice temperature has been increasing at 0.4 +/- 0.2 K /decade. Yearly anomaly maps also show that the ice concentration anomalies are predominantly positive in the 1980s and negative in the 1990s while surface temperature anomalies were mainly negative in the 1980s and positive in the 1990s. The yearly ice concentration and surface temperature anomalies are shown to be highly correlated indicating a strong link especially in the seasonal region and around the periphery of the perennial ice cover. The surface temperature data are also especially useful in providing the real spatial scope of each warming (or cooling) phenomenon that usually extends beyond the boundaries of the sea ice cover. Studies of the temporal variability of the summer ice minimum also reveal that the perennial ice cover has been declining at the rate of 6.6% /decade while the summer surface ice temperature has been increasing at the rate of 1.3 K /decade. Moreover, high year-to-year fluctuations in the minimum ice cover in the 1990s may have caused reductions in average thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover.

  3. Long-term trends of temperature, salinity, density, and transient tracers in the central Greenland Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    BNisch, Gerhard; Blindheim, Johan; Bullister, John L.; Schlosser, Peter; Wallace, Douglas W. R.

    1997-08-01

    We present long-term observations of temperature, salinity, tritium/3He, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC 11), and chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC 12) for the central Greenland Gyre. The time series span the periods between 1952 and 1994 (temperature), 1981 and 1994 (salinity), 1972 and 1994 (tritium/3He), and 1982 and 1994 (CFCs). The correlation between hydrographic and transient tracer data indicates that low temperatures in the deep water in the early 1950s and between 1960 and 1980 reflect periods of higher deep water formation rates whereas periods of increasing temperatures in the late 1950s and between 1980 and 1994 are related to low deep water formation rates. However, the transient tracer observations obtained in the 1980s and early 1990s indicate that even during periods of low deep water formation, some water from the upper water column contributed to deep water formation between 1980 and 1994. In 1994, the deep water reached temperatures and salinities of -1.149 C and 34.899, respectively, and no longer fits most of the classical definitions of Greenland Sea Deep Water (-1.29C< ? < -1.0C, 34.88temperature increase in the water column between 200 and 2000 m depth between 1980 and 1994 corresponds to an average heating rate of about 5 Wm-2 over this period, resulting in a decrease in density. The 13-year warming could be balanced by intensive cooling in two winters. The surface salinity steadily increased from 34.50 in 1991 to 34.85 in 1994.

  4. One Hundred Years of New York City's "Urban Heat Island": Temperature Trends and Public Health Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.; Kinney, P. L.

    2003-12-01

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between the historical development of New York City and its effect on the urban climate. Urban "heat islands" (UHI) are created principally by man-made surfaces, including concrete, dark roofs, asphalt lots and roads, which absorb most of the sunlight falling on them and reradiate that energy as heat. Many urban streets have fewer trees and other vegetation to shade buildings, block solar radiation and cool the air by evapotranspiration. The historical development of the NYC heat island effect was assessed in terms of average temperature differences of the city center relative to its surrounding 31-county metropolitan region, comprised of parts of New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for 1900-1997 were obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, the NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for 24 weather stations within the region that are part of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network. Analysis of annual mean temperatures shows an increasing difference between NYC (Central Park weather station) and its surrounding region over the twentieth century. Analysis of the temperature differences over time between NY Central Park (NYCP) station and 23 regional weather stations classified according to distance and level of urbanization show a heat island effect existing in NYC, with mean temperatures in the NYCP Station generally higher than the surrounding stations, ranging from 1.20\\deg C to 3.02\\deg C. A difference of at least 1\\deg C already existed at the beginning of the 20th century between the mean temperature in NYC and its surrounding rural areas, and this difference increased over the twentieth century. There was a significant decrease in the monthly and seasonal variability of the UHI effect over the century. Temperature extremes and summertime heat can create heat stress and other health consequences for urban residents. Public health impacts are assessed as the proportion of heat-related regional mortality estimated to be attributable to New York City's heat island effect during an average 1990's summer. Concentration-response functions describing the temperature-mortality relationship in NYC derived from the epidemiological literature are used to estimate numbers of deaths in a typical 1990s summer and those attributable to the city's heat island effect. The techniques and potential public health benefits of a pilot project to mitigate the heat island effect in NYC will be discussed.

  5. The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y. S.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Haynes, P. H.; Dee, D. P.; Read, W. J.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L. W.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J. R.; Bernath, P. F.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer from artifacts that need to be resolved in order to answer the question whether the large-scale flow and temperature field is sufficient to explain water entering the stratosphere.

  6. The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corvianawatie, Corry; Cahyarini, Sri Y.; Putri, Mutiara R.

    2015-09-01

    Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data. Chronology was developed by calculating the coral's annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral's X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.

  7. Analysis of interdecadal trends in chlorophyll and temperature in the Central Basin of Long Island Sound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, Edward; Stewart, Gillian

    2013-08-01

    Few coastal systems have time series data that allow researchers to examine the impact of two important stressors on estuarine ecosystems: climate change and eutrophication. The Central Basin of Long Island Sound (LIS), between New York and Connecticut, is one such system. LIS has seen annual average surface temperatures increase at a rate of 0.03 °C/yr since 1976, with increases most pronounced during summer and early fall. Over the past 15 years, annual stratification (difference between mean annual surface and bottom temperatures) has also increased at the same rate. Despite expansion of waste-water treatment and declining point-source nutrient input, LIS remains eutrophic. An increase toward historic mean annual chlorophyll concentration has occurred since a minimum in the early 1990s, driven in part by higher fall chlorophyll values. There is also an apparent shift in the seasonality of phytoplankton blooms, with more frequent fall chlorophyll peaks and reduced early spring peaks relative to the 1950s. Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) analysis of phytoplankton communities from fall and summer 2002-8 indicated that cyanobacteria and flagellates are associated with higher amounts of chlorophyll at higher temperatures during these two seasons. These results suggest that as surface temperatures continue to increase, smaller cells and flagellates may maintain chlorophyll values at higher levels despite decreased or static surface nutrient concentrations in this system.

  8. Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radtka, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national…

  9. Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radtka, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national

  10. Nuclear matter properties in the non-linear Walecka model at finite temperature with interaction between the ? - ? mesons

    SciTech Connect

    Costa, R. S.; Cortes, M. R.; Nunes, D. R.; Batista, A. S. A.

    2014-11-11

    In this work in contrast to the usual Walecka model [1] we include the interaction between the ? ? mesons [2,3] with the aim of studying the nuclear matter properties in the relativistic mean-field theory in the regime of high temperatures. Therefore in our work we use the non-linear Walecka model. We investigate whether the phase transition characteristic of other models without these interactions vanishes for a given value of chemical potential ? and baryon density ?{sub N}.

  11. Temperature and precipitation trends on the southern slopes of Mt Everest during the last twenty years (1994-2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salerno, Franco; Ma, Yaoming; Guyennon, Nicolas; Thakuri, Sudeep; Viviano, Gaetano; Romano, Emanuele; Vuillermoz, Elisa; Stocchi, Paolo; Tartari, Gianni

    2014-05-01

    The current uncertainties on Himalayan glacier shrinkage is mainly attributed to lack of meteorological measurements. The need for a fine scale investigation is particularly evident in the south slope of Mt Everest as it is one of the heavily glaciated parts of the Himalaya. To fill this knowledge gap the ''Pyramid'' station (5050 m) was created by Ev-K2-CNR Committee since the 1990. This meteorological observatory is located at the highest elevation at which weather data have ever been gathered in the region and thus the collected time series represents a valuable dataset to investigate the climate change in southern central Himalaya. However the remoteness and the harsh conditions of the region has determined over the years complications of operating of the automated weather stations (AWS) which do not have allowed to make long-term measurement coming from a unique station. In this context, we propose here a monthly temperature and precipitation reconstruction of the last twenty years (1994-2013) (and associated uncertainty) using quantile mapping and expectation maximization techniques using all the available in situ measurements. We observed an increase of +0.530.12C which is comparable to that of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the trend is significant at 90%. In addition, the increasing trend is concentrated in the winter months. The implications of these findings are significant. The melting of glaciers is ascribed to the temperature increase during the summer, while we observe a stationary trend during the warmer months. Consequently, the role of precipitation and solar radiation becomes central in the climate change impact studies of the region. As regards to the precipitation trend, we observe a substantial decrease (about -16.2 1.1 mm y-1 of precipitation, p<0.001) both for winter and summer months. Our results agree with the findings from other research groups that refer to a weakening of the monsoon from the '70s. These results are compared to the time series of other 25 AWSs located at lower elevations (Nepali Department of Hydrology and Meteorology -DHM-) and one located on the north slope of Mt Everest (Chinese Academy of Science -CAS-). Afterwards, we evaluate the agreement of these meteorological land stations with reanalysis and gridded data in order to investigate the possible spatial extension of our observations. In general, this study has as its ultimate goal to use all our available figures in order to expand and streamline the current knowledge on climate drivers in southern central Himalaya and allow thus interpreting the observed impacts on cryoshere of the region.

  12. Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator as self-powered active gas sensor with linear ethanol sensing at room temperature.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yayu; Lai, Xuan; Deng, Ping; Nie, Yuxin; Zhang, Yan; Xing, Lili; Xue, Xinyu

    2014-03-21

    A self-powered gas sensor that can actively detect ethanol at room temperature has been realized from a Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator. Pt nanoparticles are uniformly distributed on the whole surface of ZnO nanowires. The piezoelectric output of Pt/ZnO nanoarrays can act not only as a power source, but also as a response signal to ethanol at room temperature. Upon exposure to dry air and 1500 ppm ethanol at room temperature, the piezoelectric output of the device under the same compressive strain is 0.672 and 0.419 V, respectively. Moreover, a linear dependence of the sensitivity on the ethanol concentration is observed. Such a linear ethanol sensing at room temperature can be attributed to the atmosphere-dependent variety of the screen effect on the piezoelectric output of ZnO nanowires, the catalytic properties of Pt nanoparticles, and the Schottky barriers at Pt/ZnO interfaces. The present results can stimulate research in the direction of designing new material systems for self-powered room-temperature gas sensing. PMID:24561677

  13. Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator as self-powered active gas sensor with linear ethanol sensing at room temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yayu; Lai, Xuan; Deng, Ping; Nie, Yuxin; Zhang, Yan; Xing, Lili; Xue, Xinyu

    2014-03-01

    A self-powered gas sensor that can actively detect ethanol at room temperature has been realized from a Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator. Pt nanoparticles are uniformly distributed on the whole surface of ZnO nanowires. The piezoelectric output of Pt/ZnO nanoarrays can act not only as a power source, but also as a response signal to ethanol at room temperature. Upon exposure to dry air and 1500 ppm ethanol at room temperature, the piezoelectric output of the device under the same compressive strain is 0.672 and 0.419 V, respectively. Moreover, a linear dependence of the sensitivity on the ethanol concentration is observed. Such a linear ethanol sensing at room temperature can be attributed to the atmosphere-dependent variety of the screen effect on the piezoelectric output of ZnO nanowires, the catalytic properties of Pt nanoparticles, and the Schottky barriers at Pt/ZnO interfaces. The present results can stimulate research in the direction of designing new material systems for self-powered room-temperature gas sensing.

  14. Midlatitude long-term temperature trend deduced from 17 years of Na lidar observations and its relationships to solar cycle effects and an observed episodic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    She, C.; Krueger, D. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Colorado State University (CSU) sodium lidar, first light in August 1989, has conducted regular observations of nocturnal mesopause region temperature and Na density continuously for more than 18 years since May 1991. The long-term nocturnal temperature record (1990-2007) has been used to reveal an episodic response after Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 11-year (and 27-day) solar cycle effect and temperature trend. Though the observed cooling reported in the literature from different instruments at different geographic locations is inconclusive, ranging between 0 and 10 K per decade, when all 3 long-term effects are included, the CSU data deduced a temperature trend with maximum cooling of ~ 1.5 K/decade at 91 km and a profile in general agreement with recent model predictions. The effect of solar flux variations and observed episodic response on the deduced long-term temperature trend will be discussed.

  15. Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J.; Ashton, Peter S.; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M. N. Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R.

    2012-01-01

    The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies. PMID:22833269

  16. Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radtka, Catherine

    2013-04-01

    This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national contexts and diachronic change. Thus I include a presentation of the contexts in which the textbooks I study are published, and I analyse textbooks content revealing different approaches to present the notion of temperature. I argue that these results show that textbooks are valuable sources to investigate public representations of science and their shift over time, and I conclude by stressing the parallel of this evolution with change in everyday relationship with science and scientific instruments.

  17. Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation in Andorra (Pyrenees) from 1934 to 2008: quality check, homogenization and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, Pere; Prohom, Marc; Aguilar, Enric; Mestre, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of temperature and precipitation change and variability in high elevations is a difficult issue due to the lack of long term climatic series in those environments. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate how much high elevations follow the same climate evolution than low lying sites. In this work, using daily data from three Andorran weather stations (maintained by the power company Forces Elctriques d'Andorra, FEDA), climate trends of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation were obtained for the period 1934-2008. The series are complete (99.9%) and are located in a mountainous area ranging from 1110 m to 1600 m asl. As a previous step to the analysis, data rescue, quality control and homogeneity tests were applied to the daily data. For quality control, several procedures were applied to identify and flag suspicious or erroneous data: duplicated days, outliers, excessive differences between consecutive days, flat line checking, days with maximum temperature lower that minimum temperature, and rounding analysis. All the station sites were visited to gather the available metadata. Concerning homogeneity, a homogeneous climate time series is defined as one where variations are caused only by variations in climate and not to non-climatic factors (i.e., changes in site location, instruments, station environment). As a result, homogeneity of the series was inspected from several methodologies that have been used in a complementary and independent way in order to attain solid results: C3-SNHT (with software developed under the Spanish Government Grant CGL2007-65546-C03-02), and Caussinus-Mestre (C-M) approaches. In both cases, tests were applied to mean annual temperature and precipitation series, using Catalan and French series as references (provided respectively by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and Mto-France, in the framework of the Action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach, HOME). For precipitation, an additional test - RhTestV3 - was applied over the station data to ensure the homogeneity of the series. The analysis of the quality-controlled and homogenized maximum and minimum temperature series, shows an increase and statistically significant trend for the period 1934-2008. More precisely, the results are significant for both approaches (C3-SNHT and C-M) and for annual maximum temperature (0.12 and 0.10C/decade, respectively), maximum summer temperature (0.25 and 0.17C/decade, respectively), and minimum winter temperature (0.18 and 0.11C/decade, respectively). The results were also obtained for the period 1971-2008. It is observed that the upward trend of the temperature has been reinforced in Andorra for this most recent period. Regarding precipitation, with the application of different tests, non-significant results for all the seasons and for the whole period (1934-2008) were obtained, so it cannot be concluded any increasing or decreasing trend. Nevertheless, preliminary results for the 1950-2008 period aim clearly towards a significant decrease of the annual total accumulation (-4.26mm/decade [being -7.80/-1.03, the confidence intervals at 95% level]), being especially relevant and also significant for the summer totals (-2.44 mm/decade [being -3.74/-1.13, the confidence intervals at 95% level]). The obtained trends for temperature agree with those obtained in Spain (Brunet et al., 2007), France (Spagnoli et al., 2002 and Maris et al., 2009) and Catalonia (Meteorological Service of Catalonia, 2008). Bibliography: - Brunet M, Jones PD, Sigr J, Saladi O, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Della-Marta PM, Lister D, Whalter A, Lpez D. 2007. Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2005. Journal of Geophysical Research,, 112, D12117, doi:10.1029/2006JD008249 - Butllet Anual d'Indicadors Climtics, 2008 (BAIC,2008). rea de Climatologia, Servei Meteorolgic de Catalunya. (http://www.meteo.cat) - Spagnoli B, Planton S, Mestre O, Dqu M, Moisselin, JM (2002). Detecting climate change

  18. Comment on "Methodology and results of calculating Central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change?" by Christy et al. (2006)

    SciTech Connect

    Bonfils, C; Duffy, P; Lobell, D

    2006-03-28

    Understanding the causes of observed regional temperature trends is essential to projecting the human influences on climate, and the societal impacts of these influences. In their recent study, Christy et al. (2006, hereinafter CRNG06) hypothesized that the presence of irrigated soils is responsible for rapid warming of summer nights occurring in California's Central Valley over the last century (1910-2003), an assumption that rules out any significant effect due to increased greenhouse gases, urbanization, or other factors in this region. We question this interpretation, which is based on an apparent contrast in summer nighttime temperature trends between the San Joaquin Valley ({approx} +0.3 {+-} 0.1 C/decade) and the adjacent western slopes of the Sierra Nevada (-0.25 {+-} 0.15 C/decade), as well as the amplitude, sign and uncertainty of the Sierra nighttime temperature trend itself. We, however, do not dispute the finding of other Sierra and Valley trends. Regarding the veracity of the apparent Sierra nighttime temperature trend, CRNG06 generated the Valley and Sierra time-series using a meticulous procedure that eliminates discontinuities and isolates homogeneous segments in temperature records from 41 weather stations. This procedure yields an apparent cooling of about -0.25 {+-} 0.15 C/decade in the Sierra region. However, because removal of one of the 137 Sierra segments, from the most elevated site (Huntington Lake, 2140m), causes an increase in nighttime temperature trend as large as the trend itself (of +0.25 C/decade, CH06), and leads to a zero trend, the apparent cooling of summer nights in the Sierra regions seems, in fact, largely uncertain.

  19. Evaluation of trends in some temperature series at some Italian stations and their modelling by means of spectral methods: first results in the Latium coastal area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beltrano, M. C.; Testa, O.; Malvestuto, V.; Esposito, S.

    2010-09-01

    The investigation of the presence of signals indicating possible climatic changes in progress during the second half of the last century in the coastal area of the central Tyrrhenian sea has been carried out within the context of a research programme promoted by the Italian Science Academy (alias "the Academy of the XL") and financed by the Presidential Bureau. Our goal has been a better understanding of the behaviour of the minimum and maximum temperature variations in the period 1951-1999 and the modelling of their stochastic residuals through spectral analysis and the optimized construction of suitable autoregressive one-parameter processes. The meteorological data source for this research was the Italian "Agrometeorological National DataBase" (BDAN) of the Agrometeorological Informatics National System (SIAN). The spectral and stochastic analysis of meteorological data usually require full data sets without gaps, but, in BDAN, numerous data sets taken at stations located in the investigated area were incomplete. Thus, after the selection of an adequate number of stations, both representative of the region under study and characterized by a low number of data gaps, the first step was to fill all the gaps in the daily series using specific statistical techniques. After this preliminary treatment, we were left with seven temperature series that showed enough good characteristics in order to carry out an efficient modelling. Spectral analysis of minimum and maximum temperature series permitted to identify an auto-regressive one-parameter model well representing the stochastic residual of each series. With the aid of the complete model, consisting of a deterministic component (a linear trend plus two seasonal oscillations) and a stochastic residual, one can satisfactorily reconstruct the data in the past (climatic historical analysis) and to try a prediction of future values (forecasting). Thus the proposed model appears to represent a valid method to evaluate the whole variability of each climatic series in a multi-decadal time scale. As for the deterministic component, the Fourier analysis of minimum and maximum temperatures series showed for each station the existence, beside the secular linear trend, of a first oscillation (annual), and a secondary oscillation (half-yearly), each characterized by an amplitude and a phase. On the other hand, the stochastic residual can always be regarded as the superposition of an AR(1) process and a residual white noise. The lower half-yearly seasonal component, although small, can produce an amplitude attenuation or enhancement, and a phase advance or delay, among the climatic expected values and the standard meteorological sequences. The results of the stochastic analysis showed the presence during the period 1951-1999 of a discrete variability in the minimum and maximum temperature series along the Tyrrhenian coastal area, more intense for minimum temperatures. This behaviour can have direct and indirect consequences on natural vegetation and on the planning of agricultural activity, in particular for what concerns the evaluation of the quantity of the "available energy" for plant development and the assessment of "production sustainability" for the agricultural crops in terms of quantity, cost and quality of the agro products.

  20. A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hateren, J. H.

    2013-06-01

    A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850-2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO2 concentration of 2.0 0.3 C (mean standard error), of which about 50 % is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30 % with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20 % with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1 % yearly rise of CO2 concentration) is 1.5 0.2 C. The temperature rise from 1820 to 1950 can be attributed for about 70 % to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO2-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950-1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 0.4 and 1.9 0.3 C, respectively.

  1. Evolutionary force in confamiliar marine vertebrates of different temperature realms: adaptive trends in zoarcid fish transcriptomes

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Studies of temperature-induced adaptation on the basis of genomic sequence data were mainly done in extremophiles. Although the general hypothesis of an increased molecular flexibility in the cold is widely accepted, the results of thermal adaptation are still difficult to detect at proteomic down to the genomic sequence level. Approaches towards a more detailed picture emerge with the advent of new sequencing technologies. Only small changes in primary protein structure have been shown to modify kinetic and thermal properties of enzymes, but likewise for interspecies comparisons a high genetic identity is still essential to specify common principles. The present study uses comprehensive transcriptomic sequence information to uncover general patterns of thermal adaptation on the RNA as well as protein primary structure. Results By comparing orthologous sequences of two closely related zoarcid fish inhabiting different latitudinal zones (Antarctica: Pachycara brachycephalum, temperate zone: Zoarces viviparus) we were able to detect significant differences in the codon usage. In the cold-adapted species a lower GC content in the wobble position prevailed for preserved amino acids. We were able to estimate 40-60% coverage of the functions represented within the two compared zoarcid cDNA-libraries on the basis of a reference genome of the phylogenetically closely related fish Gasterosteus aculeatus. A distinct pattern of amino acid substitutions could be identified for the non-synonymous codon exchanges, with a remarkable surplus of serine and reduction of glutamic acid and asparagine for the Antarctic species. Conclusion Based on the differences between orthologous sequences from confamiliar species, distinguished mainly by the temperature regimes of their habitats, we hypothesize that temperature leaves a signature on the composition of biological macromolecules (RNA, proteins) with implications for the transcription and translation level. As the observed pattern of amino acid substitutions only partly support the flexibility hypothesis further evolutionary forces may be effective at the global transcriptome level. PMID:23051706

  2. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 22 (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 22 bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring warming and fall cooling rates. Trends in all of the parameters were examined after low-pass filtering using a 10-point convolution filter ( n=10 years) and regime shifts were identified using the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) method. The analysis shows some difference between regions in the timing of minimum SST with minima being reached 1 month earlier in the south (February) relative to more northern regions (March). Regional annual SST range decreased in a seaward direction. Amplitude of summer warming and the length of summer have shown fluctuations with recent years showing stronger warming and longer summers but generally not exceeding past levels. Overall, the difference in SST range, with recent larger values may be the most significant finding of this work. SST range changes have the potential to disrupt species important to local fisheries due to combinations of differing temperature tolerances, changes in reproduction potential, and changes in the distributional range of species.

  3. Multisite multivariate modeling of daily precipitation and temperature in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using generalized linear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asong, Zilefac E.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-02-01

    Based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework, a multisite stochastic modelling approach is developed using daily observations of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperature is modeled using a two-stage normal-heteroscedastic model by fitting mean and variance components separately. Likewise, precipitation occurrence and conditional precipitation intensity processes are modeled separately. The relationship between precipitation and temperature is accounted for by using transformations of precipitation as covariates to predict temperature fields. Large scale atmospheric covariates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices, geographical site attributes, and observed precipitation and temperature records are used to calibrate these models for the 1971-2000 period. Validation of the developed models is performed on both pre- and post-calibration period data. Results of the study indicate that the developed models are able to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of observed precipitation and temperature fields, such as inter-site and inter-variable correlation structure, and systematic regional variations present in observed sequences. A number of simulated weather statistics ranging from seasonal means to characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes and some of the commonly used climate indices are also found to be in close agreement with those derived from observed data. This GLM-based modelling approach will be developed further for multisite statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model outputs to explore climate variability and change in this region of Canada.

  4. Evaluation of the improved linear emissivity constraint temperature and emissivity separation method by using the simulated hyperspectral thermal infrared data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hua; Li, Zhao-Liang; Tang, Bo-Hui; Tang, Rong-Lin

    2015-12-01

    In this study, an improved linear emissivity constraint temperature and emissivity separation (I-LECTES) method was first proposed to overcome the discontinuities problem of the retrieved land surface emissivities (LSEs) in the former linear emissivity constraint temperature and emissivity separation (LECTES) method. Consequently, the hyperspectral thermal infrared data were carefully simulated according to the configuration of Designs & Prototypes microFTIR Model 102, and were used to evaluate the performance of the I-LECTES method. Meanwhile, the I-LECTES method was also compared with the LECTES method. Different the atmosphere and surface circumstances were considered, as well as the different levels of noise equivalent temperature difference (NEΔT). The results showed that the proposed I-LECTES method is of a better accuracy compared with the LECTES method and has the characteristic of keeping the retrieved LSEs continuous, which sounds more reasonable. Because the noises in the ground measured radiance may have more effects on the accuracies of land surface temperature (LST) and LSEs than those in the atmospheric downwelling radiance, the noise in the ground measured radiance should be removed as much as possible to improve the accuracies of retrieved LST and LSEs. Furthermore, taken into account the lower retrieval accuracies for the cold and dry atmosphere, both the I-LECTES method and the LECTES method should be taken a full consideration. The proposed method is regarded to be promising because of its holding continuity and noise-immune.

  5. Temperature driven p-n-p type conduction switching materials: current trends and future directions.

    PubMed

    Guin, Satya N; Biswas, Kanishka

    2015-04-28

    Modern technological inventions have been going through a "renaissance" period. Development of new materials and understanding of fundamental structure-property correlations are the important steps to move further for advanced technologies. In modern technologies, inorganic semiconductors are the leading materials which are extensively used for different applications. In the current perspective, we present discussion on an important class of materials that show fascinating p-n-p type conduction switching, which can have potential applications in diodes or transistor devices that operate reversibly upon temperature or voltage change. We highlight the key concepts, present the current fundamental understanding and show the latest developments in the field of p-n-p type conduction switching. Finally, we point out the major challenges and opportunities in this field. PMID:25812630

  6. Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature.

    PubMed

    Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

    2012-11-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia - 100 years - and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

  7. Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

  8. Temperature trends in desert cities: how vegetation and urbanization affect the urban heat island dynamics in hyper-arid climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marpu, P. R.; Lazzarini, M.; Molini, A.; Ghedira, H.

    2013-12-01

    Urban areas represent a unique micro-climatic system, mainly characterized by scarcity of vegetation and ground moisture, an albedo strictly dependent on building materials and urban forms, high heat capacity, elevated pollutants emissions, anthropogenic heat production, and a characteristic boundary layer dynamics. For obvious historical reasons, the first to be addressed in the literature were the effects of urbanization on the local microclimate of temperate regions, where most of the urban development took place in the last centuries. Here micro-climatic characteristics all contribute to the warming of urban areas, also known as 'urban heat island' effect, and are expected to crucially impact future energy and water consumption, air quality, and human health. However, rapidly increasing urbanization rates in arid and hyper-arid developing countries could soon require more attention towards studying the effects of urban development on arid climates, which remained mainly unexplored till now. In this talk we investigate the climatology of urban heat islands in seven highly urbanized desert cities based on day and night temporal trends of land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired using MODIS satellite during 2000-2012. Urban and rural areas are distinguished by analyzing the high-resolution temporal variability and averaged monthly values of LST, NDVI and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) for all the seven cities and adjacent sub-urban areas. Different thermal behaviors were observed at the selected sites, also including temperature mitigation and inverse urban heat island, and are here discussed together with detailed analysis of the corresponding trends.

  9. On using a generalized linear model to downscale daily precipitation for the center of Portugal: an analysis of trends and extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulqurio, Mrio; Garrett, Pedro; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Cruz, Maria Joo

    2015-04-01

    Portugal is on a climate change hot spot region, where precipitation is expected to decrease with important impacts regarding future water availability. As one of the European countries affected more by droughts in the last decades, it is important to assess how future precipitation regimes will change in order to study its impacts on water resources. Due to the coarse scale of global circulation models, it is often needed to downscale climate variables to the regional or local scale using statistical and/or dynamical techniques. In this study, we tested the use of a generalized linear model, as implemented in the program GLIMCLIM, to downscale precipitation for the center of Portugal where the Tagus basin is located. An analysis of the method performance is done as well as an evaluation of future precipitation trends and extremes for the twenty-first century. Additionally, we perform the first analysis of the evolution of droughts in climate change scenarios by the Standardized Precipitation Index in the study area. Results show that GLIMCLIM is able to capture the precipitation's interannual variation and seasonality correctly. However, summer precipitation is considerably overestimated. Additionally, precipitation extremes are in general well recovered, but high daily rainfall may be overestimated, and dry spell lengths are not correctly recovered by the model. Downscaled projections show a reduction in precipitation between 19 and 28 % at the end of the century. Results indicate that precipitation extremes will decrease and the magnitude of droughts can increase up to three times in relation to the 1961-1990 period which can have strong ecological, social, and economic impacts.

  10. Trends in Mars Thermospheric Density and Temperature Structure Obtained from MAVEN In-situ Datasets: Interpretation Using Global Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bougher, Stephen W.; Tolson, Robert H.; Mahaffy, Paul R.; Johnston, Timothy E.; Olsen, Kirk; Bell, Jared M.

    2015-04-01

    The Mars thermosphere-ionosphere-exosphere (TIE) system constitutes the atmospheric reservoir (i.e. available cold and hot planetary neutral and thermal ion species) that regulates present day escape processes from the planet. Without knowledge of the physics and chemistry creating this TIE region and driving its variations (e.g., solar cycle, seasonal), it is not possible to constrain either the short-term or long-term histories of atmosphere escape. The characterization of this upper atmosphere reservoir is one of the major science objectives of the MAVEN mission.We investigate both in-situ Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) neutral densities/temperatures and Accelerometer Experiment (ACC) reaction wheel (RW) derived mass densities/temperatures obtained over the first ~400 orbits. This sampling occurs when periapsis latitudes ranged from about 32 to 74N periapsis local mean solar times (LMST) ranged from about 15:00 to 06:00; and corresponding periapsis altitudes ranged from ~200 km down to ~150 km. This dayside in-situ sampling lasted until about 17-December-2014, after which the periapsis began moving Southward toward nightside Northern mid-latitudes. During this dayside period, monthly mean solar EUV-UV fluxes corresponded to F10.7 ~ 150-160 at Earth (solar moderate conditions) and the Martian season was approaching perihelion (Ls ~ 205 to 254).Thermospheric trends (e.g. latitude, local time, diurnal) of extracted densities and inferred temperatures will be compared with corresponding 3-D Mars Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) simulated outputs in order to understand the variations observed, and probe the underlying physical processes responsible. Solar rotation variations in EUV fluxes and their impacts on dayside temperatures will also be examined.

  11. Linear-in-temperature resistivity close to a topological metal insulator transition in ultra-multi valley fcc-ytterbium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enderlein, Carsten; Fontes, Magda; Baggio-Saitovich, Elisa; Continentino, Mucio A.

    2016-01-01

    The semimetal-to-semiconductor transition in fcc-Yb under modest pressure can be considered a picture book example of a metal-insulator transition of the Lifshitz type. We have performed transport measurements at low temperatures in the closest vicinity of the transition and related DFT calculations of the Fermi surface. Our resistivity measurements show a linear temperature dependence with an unusually low dρ / dT at low temperatures approaching the MIT. The calculations suggest fcc-ytterbium being an ultra-multi valley system with 24 electron and 6 hole pockets in the Brillouin zone. Such Fermi surface topology naturally supports the appearance of strongly correlated phases. An estimation of the quasiparticle-enhanced effective mass shows that the scattering rate is by at least two orders of magnitude lower than in other materials which exhibit linear-in-T behavior at a quantum critical point. However, we cannot exclude an excessive effective mass enhancement, when the van Hove singularity touches the Fermi level.

  12. Design of High Temperature Ultrasonic Linear Arrays for Under-Sodium Viewing

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Bond, Leonard J.; Jones, Anthony M.; Peters, Timothy J.

    2010-11-07

    This paper summarizes the design process for high temperature ultrasonic phased array transducers for imaging in liquid sodium at temperatures up to 260C. The project is funded by the USDOE Generation IV Reactor Program and includes collaboration with the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency. The transducer system is being designed to be able to provide images inside a sodium cooled fast reactor, to support operation and maintenance activities including potentially location of looseor damaged parts during service outages. The prototype transducer array is being designed for 8 to 16, 3MHz rectangular lead niobate (K-81) or bismuth titanate (K-15) piezoelectric elements spaced at ?/2 (wavelength in sodium). A nickel or nickel alloy faceplate serves as the sodium wetting surface. Scan angle of the focused ultrasonic beam is 30 degrees. Imaging spatial resolution is ? 1mm. The array is designed to be operated using a commercial phased array control system and it is planned that array testing will be performed in room temperature water, hot oil (260C), and molten sodium (260C).

  13. High temperature spin dynamics in linear magnetic chains, molecular rings, and segments by nuclear magnetic resonance

    SciTech Connect

    Adelnia, Fatemeh; Lascialfari, Alessandro; Mariani, Manuel; Ammannato, Luca; Caneschi, Andrea; Rovai, Donella; Winpenny, Richard; Timco, Grigore; Corti, Maurizio Borsa, Ferdinando

    2015-05-07

    We present the room temperature proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) nuclear spin-lattice relaxation rate (NSLR) results in two 1D spin chains: the Heisenberg antiferromagnetic (AFM) Eu(hfac){sub 3}NITEt and the magnetically frustrated Gd(hfac){sub 3}NITEt. The NSLR as a function of external magnetic field can be interpreted very well in terms of high temperature spin dynamics dominated by a long time persistence of the decay of the two-spin correlation function due to the conservation of the total spin value for isotropic Heisenberg chains. The high temperature spin dynamics are also investigated in Heisenberg AFM molecular rings. In both Cr{sub 8} closed ring and in Cr{sub 7}Cd and Cr{sub 8}Zn open rings, i.e., model systems for a finite spin segment, an enhancement of the low frequency spectral density is found consistent with spin diffusion but the high cut-off frequency due to intermolecular anisotropic interactions prevents a detailed analysis of the spin diffusion regime.

  14. Quasi-linear theory of electron density and temperature fluctuations with application to MHD generators and MPD arc thrusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, M.

    1972-01-01

    Fluctuations in electron density and temperature coupled through Ohm's law are studied for an ionizable medium. The nonlinear effects are considered in the limit of a third order quasi-linear treatment. Equations are derived for the amplitude of the fluctuation. Conditions under which a steady state can exist in the presence of the fluctuation are examined and effective transport properties are determined. A comparison is made to previously considered second order theory. The effect of third order terms indicates the possibility of fluctuations existing in regions predicted stable by previous analysis.

  15. Detection of linear trends in multisensor time series in the presence of autocorrelated noise: Application to the chlorophyll-a SeaWiFS and MERIS data sets and extrapolation to the incoming Sentinel 3-OLCI mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saulquin, Bertrand; Fablet, Ronan; Mangin, Antoine; Mercier, Grgoire; Antoine, David; Fanton d'Andon, Odile

    2013-08-01

    The detection of long-term trends in geophysical time series is a key issue in climate change studies. This detection is affected by many factors: the size of the trend to be detected, the length of the available data sets, and the noise properties. Although the noise autocorrelation observed in geophysical time series does not bias the trend estimate, it affects the estimation of its uncertainty and consequently the ability to detect, or not, a significant trend. Ignoring the noise autocorrelation level typically leads to an overdetection of significant trends. Due to satellite lifetime, usually between 5 and 10 years, sea surface time series do not cover the same period and are acquired by different sensors with different characteristics. These differences lead to unknown level shifts (biases) between the data sets, which affect the trend detection. In this work, we develop a generic framework to detect and evaluate linear trends and level shifts in multisensor time series of satellite chlorophyll-a concentrations, as provided by the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer instrument (MERIS) and sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean-color missions. We also discuss the optimization of the observation networks, in terms of needed time overlap between successive time series to reduce the uncertainty on the detection of long-term trends. For the incoming Sentinel 3-Ocean and Land Color Instrument (3-OLCI) mission that should be launched at the end of 2014, we propose a global map of the number of months of observations to enhance the trend detection performed with the joint SeaWiFS-MERIS analysis.

  16. Thrust characteristics of a double-sided high temperature superconducting linear synchronous motor with a high temperature superconducting magnetic suspension system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Jianxun; Zheng, Luhai; Xu, Wei; Guo, Youguang; Zhu, Jianguo

    2011-04-01

    An electromagnetic design of a double-sided high temperature superconducting (HTS) linear synchronous motor (HTSLSM) with an HTS bulk magnet secondary is introduced in this paper. A HTS magnetic suspension system is applied to replace the sliding rail to levitate the secondary mover resulting in the HTSLSM moving without sliding friction. The thrust model of the HTSLSM is built using a magnetic circuit method and the thrust characteristics obtained from the model are compared with finite element analysis and practical testing results. The theoretical analysis on the prototype has also been verified by measurements.

  17. Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinco, Thelma A.; de Guzman, Rosalina G.; Hilario, Flaviana D.; Wilson, David M.

    2014-08-01

    Observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature data from 34 synoptic weather stations in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010 were subjected to trend analysis which revealed an overall warming tendency compared to the normal mean values for the period 1961-1990. This warming trend can be observed in the annual mean temperatures, daily minimum mean temperatures and to a lesser extent, daily maximum mean temperatures. Precipitation and temperature extremes for the period 1951-2010 were also analysed relative to the mean 1961-1990 baseline values. Some stations (Cotabato, Iloilo, Laoag and Tacloban,) show increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall events which are significant at the 95% level with none of the stations showing decreasing trends. The frequency of daily temperature maximum above the 99th percentile (hot days) and nights at the 1st percentile (cold nights) suggests that both days and nights in particular are becoming warmer. Such indicators of a warming trend and increase in extreme events in the Philippines are discussed in the context of similar national, regional (Asia Pacific) and global studies. The relevance of such empirically based climatology studies, particularly for nations such as the Philippines which are increasingly vulnerable to the multiple impacts of global climate change, is also considered.

  18. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.

    2012-11-01

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

  19. Dynamic infrared linear dichroism study of the temperature-dependent, viscoelastic behavior of a poly(ester urethane).

    PubMed

    Wang, Yanqia; Aubuchon, Steven R; Smith, Mark E; Schoonover, Jon R; Palmer, Richard A

    2005-03-01

    In the study reported here, of the poly(ester urethane), Estane 5703, simultaneous dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and dynamic infrared linear dichroism (DIRLD) measurements have been carried out at continuously variable temperatures from -50 to +30 degrees C. Multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) analysis of the spectral data has been correlated with the thermo-mechanical properties. Spectral changes, analyzed as a function of temperature, are compared with the storage and loss moduli to provide insight into viscoelastic behavior at the molecular level. In addition, the data for pure Estane have been compared to those for plasticized Estane samples, which contain 10 and 30% plasticizer by weight. These comparisons show a strong and consistent correlation between the macroscopic rheological properties and the microscopic (molecular, inter-molecular, and sub-molecular) responses of this block co-polymer. PMID:15901311

  20. Analyzing projected changes and trends of temperature and precipitation in the southern USA from 16 downscaled global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lu; Hong, Yang; Hocker, James E.; Shafer, Mark A.; Carter, Lynne M.; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Bednarczyk, Christopher N.; Yong, Bin; Adhikari, Pradeep

    2012-08-01

    This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7C to 2.4C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South.

  1. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    PubMed

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast. PMID:25743152

  2. Temperature effect on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayers. An exponential-to-linear transition point.

    PubMed

    Vikulina, Anna S; Anissimov, Yuri G; Singh, Prateek; Prokopović, Vladimir Z; Uhlig, Katja; Jaeger, Magnus S; von Klitzing, Regine; Duschl, Claus; Volodkin, Dmitry

    2016-03-01

    In this study, the effect of temperature on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayer films was investigated. It aims at understanding the multilayer growth mechanism as crucially important for the fabrication of tailor-made multilayer films. Model poly(l-lysine)/hyaluronic acid (PLL/HA) multilayers were assembled in the temperature range of 25-85 °C by layer-by-layer deposition using a dipping method. The film growth switches from the exponential to the linear regime at the transition point as a result of limited polymer diffusion into the film. With the increase of the build-up temperature the film growth rate is enhanced in both regimes; the position of the transition point shifts to a higher number of deposition steps confirming the diffusion-mediated growth mechanism. Not only the faster polymer diffusion into the film but also more porous/permeable film structure are responsible for faster film growth at higher preparation temperature. The latter mechanism is assumed from analysis of the film growth rate upon switching of the preparation temperature during the film growth. Interestingly, the as-prepared films are equilibrated and remain intact (no swelling or shrinking) during temperature variation in the range of 25-45 °C. The average activation energy for complexation between PLL and HA in the multilayers calculated from the Arrhenius plot has been found to be about 0.3 kJ mol(-1) for monomers of PLL. Finally, the following processes known to be dependent on temperature are discussed with respect to the multilayer growth: (i) polymer diffusion, (ii) polymer conformational changes, and (iii) inter-polymer interactions. PMID:26911320

  3. Calculating linear-response functions for finite temperatures on the basis of the alloy analogy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebert, H.; Mankovsky, S.; Chadova, K.; Polesya, S.; Minr, J.; Kdderitzsch, D.

    2015-04-01

    A scheme is presented that is based on the alloy analogy model and allows one to account for thermal lattice vibrations as well as spin fluctuations when calculating response quantities in solids. Various models to deal with spin fluctuations are discussed concerning their impact on the resulting temperature-dependent magnetic moment, longitudinal conductivity, and Gilbert damping parameter. It is demonstrated that, by using the Monte Carlo (MC) spin configuration as input, the alloy analogy model is capable of reproducing the results of MC simulations on the average magnetic moment within all spin fluctuation models under discussion. On the other hand, the response quantities are much more sensitive to the spin fluctuation model. Separate calculations accounting for the thermal effect due to either lattice vibrations or spin fluctuations show that they give comparable contributions to the electrical conductivity and Gilbert damping. However, comparison to results accounting for both thermal effects demonstrates violation of Matthiessen's rule, showing the nonadditive effect of lattice vibrations and spin fluctuations. The results obtained for bcc Fe and fcc Ni are compared with the experimental data, showing rather good agreement for the temperature-dependent electrical conductivity and the Gilbert damping parameter.

  4. The PTI Giant Star Angular Size Survey: Effective Temperatures & Linear Radii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Belle, Gerard; Pilyavsky, Gennady; von Braun, Kaspar; Ciardi, David R.; PTI Collaboration

    2016-01-01

    We report new interferometric angular diameter observations of over 200 giant stars observed with the Palomar Testbed Interferometer (PTI). These angular diameters are combined with bolometric fluxes derived from detailed spectral energy distribution (SED) fits, to produce robust estimates of effective temperature (TEFF). These SED fits include reddening estimates and are based upon fits of empirical spectral templates to literature photometry, and narrow-band photometry obtained at the Lowell 31" telescope. The 58 nights of 31" observing have produced over 45,000 new photometric data points on these stars, allowing for flux and reddening determination with unprecident precision. Over the range from G5III to M8III, TEFF estimates are precise to 50K per spectral type. Radius estimates are limited by the improved Hipparcos estimates of van Leeuwen (2007) and are typically ~10% per star.

  5. The PTI Giant Star Angular Size Survey: Effective Temperatures & Linear Radii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Belle, Gerard; Ciardi, David R.; von Braun, Kaspar; Pilyavsky, Genady

    2015-01-01

    We report new interferometric angular diameter observations of over 200 giant stars observed with the Palomar Testbed Interferometer (PTI). These angular diameters are combined with bolometric fluxes derived from detailed spectral energy distribution (SED) fits, to produce robust estimates of effective temperature (T_EFF). These SED fits include reddening estimates and are based upon fits of empirical spectral templates to literature photometry, and narrow-band photometry obtained at the Lowell 31" telescope. Over the range from G5III to M8III, T_EFF estimates are precise to 50K per spectral type. Radius estimates are limited by the improved Hipparcos estimates of van Leeuwen (2007) and are typically ~10% per star.

  6. The PTI Giant Star Angular Size Survey: Effective Temperatures & Linear Radii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Belle, Gerard; Ciardi, D. R.; von Braun, K.

    2014-01-01

    We report new interferometric angular diameter observations of over 200 giant stars observed with the Palomar Testbed Interferometer (PTI). These angular diameters are combined with bolometric fluxes derived from detailed spectral energy distribution (SED) fits, to produce robust estimates of effective temperature (T_EFF). These SED fits include reddening estimates and are based upon fits of empirical spectral templates to literature photometry, and narrow-band photometry obtained at the Lowell 31" telescope. Over the range from G5III to M8III, T_EFF estimates are precise to 50K per spectral type. Radius estimates are limited by the improved Hipparcos estimates of van Leeuwen (2007) and are typically ~10% per star.

  7. High-temperature inert gas plasma magnetohydrodynamic energy conversion by using linear-shaped Faraday-type channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Tomoyuki; Zhuang, Yunqin; Okuno, Yoshihiro

    2013-02-01

    We describe high-density magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) energy conversion in a high-temperature seed-free argon plasma, for which a compact linear-shaped Faraday-type MHD electrical power generator is used. Short-time-duration single-pulse shock-tunnel-based experiments demonstrate the MHD energy conversion with varying total inflow temperature up to 9000 K and applied magnetic-flux density up to 4.0 T. The high-temperature plasma is transformed from the thermal-equilibrium state at the entrance to the weak-nonequilibrium state in the supersonic MHD channel. The discharge structure is reasonably homogeneous without suffering from serious streamer development. The power generation performance is monotonically improved by increasing total inflow temperature and strength of magnetic field. The enthalpy extraction efficiency of 13.1% and overall power density of 0.16 GW/m3 are attained. The local power density at the middle of the channel reaches 0.24 GW/m3.

  8. Impacts of land surface properties on temperature trends over the United States: Assessment using the US historical climate network and North American regional reanalysis datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fall, Souleymane

    2009-12-01

    Temperature trends result from natural and anthropogenic factors. The latter was first seen as the result of radiative forcings, mainly the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, the increasing evidence that some non-radiative forcings such as land use/land cover (LULC) change may also be major factors contributing to climate change has prompted the National Research Council (NRC, 2005) to recommend the broadening of the climate change issue to include LULC processes as an important climate forcing. In addition, at the station level, increasing attention has been given to non-climatic biases that affect temperature records due to changes of the local environment at the vicinity of the station, changes in instrumentation and/or observations practices. This study (i) uses comparisons between in-situ observations and reanalysis datasets as an independent method to estimate temperature trends and variability and evaluate adjustments made to temperature records to correct non-climatic biases, (ii) uses the Observation Minus Reanalysis (OMR) method to investigate the impacts of sensitivity of surface temperature trends to LULC change over the conterminous United States and (iii) compares temperature and equivalent temperature (which is a variable that combines both temperature and moisture) and analyzes their respective correlation to vegetation properties. The comparison between the reanalysis and in-situ temperature observations shows that the reanalysis faithfully captures the intraseasonal and interannual variability of the station observations and also provides valuable information about the effects of individual station location (well or poorly sited) on temperature observations. Moreover, the comparison between surface observations and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using the Mean Square Difference (MSD) method is efficient in detecting LULC changes that took place at the vicinity of stations or changes related to observation practices, and in evaluating the impacts of adjustments performed on raw observations. OMR trends were found to be sensitive to land cover types and results indicate that land use conversion often results in more warming than cooling. Overall, our results confirm the robustness of the OMR method for capturing patterns of LULC changes at local and regional scales. The comparison between temperature and equivalent temperature demonstrates that atmospheric heat content may help to quantify the differences between surface and tropospheric trends, and hence the impact of land cover types on the surface temperature changes. Moreover, equivalent temperature is more correlated to biomass increase, vegetation transpiration and other surface moisture characteristics. Overall, this study suggests that in addition to considering the greenhouse gases-driven radiative forcings, multi-decadal and longer climate models simulations must further include LULC changes.

  9. Variability and trend of diurnal temperature range in China and their relationship to total cloud cover and sunshine duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, X.

    2013-05-01

    This study aims to investigate the effect of total cloud cover (TCC) and sunshine duration (SSD) in the variation of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in China during 1954-2009. As expected, the inter-annual variation of DTR was mainly determined by TCC. Analysis of trends of 30-year moving windows of DTR and TCC time series showed that TCC changes could account for that of DTR in some cases. However, TCC decreased during 1954-2009, which did not support DTR reduction across China. DTRs under sky conditions such as clear, cloudy and overcast showed nearly the same decreasing rate that completely accounted for the overall DTR reduction. Nevertheless, correlation between SSD and DTR was weak and not significant under clear sky conditions in which aerosol direct radiative effect should be dominant. Furthermore, 30-60% of DTR reduction was associated with DTR decrease under overcast conditions in south China. This implies that aerosol direct radiative effect appears not to be one of the main factors determining long-term changes in DTR in China.

  10. Trends in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for the Countries of the Western Indian Ocean, 1975-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Enric; Vincent, Lucie A.

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of the project "Renforcement des Capacits des Pays de la COI dans le Domaine de l'Adaptation au Changement Climatique (ACCLIMATE)" (Comission de l'Ocean Indien, COI), a workshop on homogenization of climate data and climate change indices analysis was held in Mauritius in October 2009, using the successful format prepared by the CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Scientists from the five countries in Western Indian Ocean brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of the data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices which can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. Although the period of analysis is very short, it represents a seminal step for the compilation of longer data set and allows us to examine the evolution of climate extremes in the area during the time period identified as the decades where anthropogenic warming es larger than natural forcings. This study first presents some results of the homogeneity assessment using the software package RHtestV3 (Wang and Feng 2009) which has been developed for the detection of changepoints in climatological datasets. Indices based on homogenized daily temperatures and precipitations were also prepared for the analysis of trends at more than 50 stations across the region. The results show an increase in the percentage of warm days and warm nights over 1975-2008 while changes in extreme precipitations are not as consistent.

  11. Comparison of kinetic and extended magnetohydrodynamics computational models for the linear ion temperature gradient instability in slab geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Schnack, D. D.; Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 ; Cheng, J.; Parker, S. E.; Barnes, D. C.

    2013-06-15

    We perform linear stability studies of the ion temperature gradient (ITG) instability in unsheared slab geometry using kinetic and extended magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models, in the regime k{sub ?}/k{sub ?}?1. The ITG is a parallel (to B) sound wave that may be destabilized by finite ion Larmor radius (FLR) effects in the presence of a gradient in the equilibrium ion temperature. The ITG is stable in both ideal and resistive MHD; for a given temperature scale length L{sub Ti0}, instability requires that either k{sub ?}?{sub i} or ?{sub i}/L{sub Ti0} be sufficiently large. Kinetic models capture FLR effects to all orders in either parameter. In the extended MHD model, these effects are captured only to lowest order by means of the Braginskii ion gyro-viscous stress tensor and the ion diamagnetic heat flux. We present the linear electrostatic dispersion relations for the ITG for both kinetic Vlasov and extended MHD (two-fluid) models in the local approximation. In the low frequency fluid regime, these reduce to the same cubic equation for the complex eigenvalue ?=?{sub r}+i?. An explicit solution is derived for the growth rate and real frequency in this regime. These are found to depend on a single non-dimensional parameter. We also compute the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions with the extended MHD code NIMROD, and a hybrid kinetic ?f code that assumes six-dimensional Vlasov ions and isothermal fluid electrons, as functions of k{sub ?}?{sub i} and ?{sub i}/L{sub Ti0} using a spatially dependent equilibrium. These solutions are compared with each other, and with the predictions of the local kinetic and fluid dispersion relations. Kinetic and fluid calculations agree well at and near the marginal stability point, but diverge as k{sub ?}?{sub i} or ?{sub i}/L{sub Ti0} increases. There is good qualitative agreement between the models for the shape of the unstable global eigenfunction for L{sub Ti0}/?{sub i}=30 and 20. The results quantify how far fluid calculations can be extended accurately into the kinetic regime. We conclude that for the linear ITG problem in slab geometry with unsheared magnetic field when k{sub ?}/k{sub ?}?1, the extended MHD model may be a reliable physical model for this problem when ?{sub i}/L{sub Ti0}<10{sup ?2} and k{sub ?}?{sub i}<0.2.

  12. Comparison of kinetic and extended magnetohydrodynamics computational models for the linear ion temperature gradient instability in slab geometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schnack, D. D.; Cheng, J.; Barnes, D. C.; Parker, S. E.

    2013-06-01

    We perform linear stability studies of the ion temperature gradient (ITG) instability in unsheared slab geometry using kinetic and extended magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models, in the regime k?/k??1. The ITG is a parallel (to B) sound wave that may be destabilized by finite ion Larmor radius (FLR) effects in the presence of a gradient in the equilibrium ion temperature. The ITG is stable in both ideal and resistive MHD; for a given temperature scale length LTi0, instability requires that either k??i or ?i/LTi0 be sufficiently large. Kinetic models capture FLR effects to all orders in either parameter. In the extended MHD model, these effects are captured only to lowest order by means of the Braginskii ion gyro-viscous stress tensor and the ion diamagnetic heat flux. We present the linear electrostatic dispersion relations for the ITG for both kinetic Vlasov and extended MHD (two-fluid) models in the local approximation. In the low frequency fluid regime, these reduce to the same cubic equation for the complex eigenvalue ? =?r+i?. An explicit solution is derived for the growth rate and real frequency in this regime. These are found to depend on a single non-dimensional parameter. We also compute the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions with the extended MHD code NIMROD, and a hybrid kinetic ?f code that assumes six-dimensional Vlasov ions and isothermal fluid electrons, as functions of k??i and ?i/LTi0 using a spatially dependent equilibrium. These solutions are compared with each other, and with the predictions of the local kinetic and fluid dispersion relations. Kinetic and fluid calculations agree well at and near the marginal stability point, but diverge as k??i or ?i/LTi0 increases. There is good qualitative agreement between the models for the shape of the unstable global eigenfunction for LTi0/?i=30 and 20. The results quantify how far fluid calculations can be extended accurately into the kinetic regime. We conclude that for the linear ITG problem in slab geometry with unsheared magnetic field when k?/k??1, the extended MHD model may be a reliable physical model for this problem when ?i/LTi0<10-2 and k??i<0.2.

  13. Theory of coupled whistler-electron temperature gradient mode in high beta plasma: Application to linear plasma device

    SciTech Connect

    Singh, S. K.; Awasthi, L. M.; Singh, R.; Kaw, P. K.; Jha, R.; Mattoo, S. K.

    2011-10-15

    This paper presents a theory of coupled whistler (W) and electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode using two-fluid model in high beta plasma. Non-adiabatic ion response, parallel magnetic field perturbation ({delta}B{sub z}), perpendicular magnetic flutter ({delta}B{sub perpendicular}), and electron collisions are included in the treatment of theory. A linear dispersion relation for whistler-electron temperature gradient (W-ETG) mode is derived. The numerical results obtained from this relation are compared with the experimental results observed in large volume plasma device (LVPD) [Awasthi et al., Phys. Plasma 17, 42109 (2010)]. The theory predicts that the instability grows only where the temperature gradient is finite and the density gradient flat. For the parameters of the experiment, theoretically estimated frequency and wave number of W-ETG mode match with the values corresponding to the peak in the power spectrum observed in LVPD. By using simple mixing length argument, estimated level of fluctuations of W-ETG mode is in the range of fluctuation level observed in LVPD.

  14. High Spatial Resolution Forecasting of Long-Term Monthly Precipitation and Mean Temperature Trends in Data Scarce Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    High spatial resolution time-series data are critical for many hydrological and earth science studies. Multiple groups have developed historical and forecast datasets of high-resolution monthly time-series for regions of the world such as the United States (e.g. PRISM for hindcast data and MACA for long-term forecasts); however, analogous datasets have not been available for most data scarce regions. The current work fills this data need by producing and freely distributing hindcast and forecast time-series datasets of monthly precipitation and mean temperature for all global land surfaces, gridded at a 30 arc-second resolution. The hindcast data are constructed through a Delta downscaling method, using as inputs 0.5 degree monthly time-series and 30 arc-second climatology global weather datasets developed by Willmott & Matsuura and WorldClim, respectively. The forecast data are formulated using a similar downscaling method, but with an additional step to remove bias from the climate variable's probability distribution over each region of interest. The downscaling package is designed to be compatible with a number of general circulation models (GCM) (e.g. with GCMs developed for the IPCC AR4 report and CMIP5), and is presently implemented using time-series data from the NCAR CESM1 model in conjunction with 30 arc-second future decadal climatologies distributed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. The resulting downscaled datasets are 30 arc-second time-series forecasts of monthly precipitation and mean temperature available for all global land areas. As an example of these data, historical and forecast 30 arc-second monthly time-series from 1950 through 2070 are created and analyzed for the region encompassing Pakistan. For this case study, forecast datasets corresponding to the future representative concentration pathways 45 and 85 scenarios developed by the IPCC are presented and compared. This exercise highlights a range of potential meteorological trends for the Pakistan region and more broadly serves to demonstrate the utility of the presented 30 arc-second monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets for use in data scarce regions.

  15. Abrupt changes, multidecadal variability and long-term trends in sea surface temperature and sea level datasets within the southeastern Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzlez, Manuel; Fontn, Almudena; Esnaola, Ganix; Collins, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Multidecadal variability and long-term trends of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Level (SL) datasets for the southeastern Bay of Biscay have been examined. The SST dataset (Aquarium of San Sebastin), measured on a nearly daily basis, extends from 1947 to 2010. The daily SL data utilised are those from Santander (IEO tide gauge network) and from St. Jean de Luz (SHOM), spanning the periods 1943-2004 and 1964-1997, respectively. This paper presents an approach for the extraction of multidecadal variability and long-term trends. First of all, the KZA (Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive) filter was used to detect possible discontinuities in time-series. Subsequently, the seasonal and multidecadal variability was identified by spectral analysis and further quantified by least squares fitting. Finally, prior to the trend determination, the long-term natural variability was removed. The results revealed significant contribution of the annual component to the SST and SL, with a weaker contribution of the semiannual signal. The sea level air pressure and long-term tides also contributed to the SL variability. The estimated trends were less than those obtained by other authors. The analysis revealed no trend in the SST and the Jean de Luz SL series, whilst an increasing trend was detected for the Santander SL dataset.

  16. Statistics of regional surface temperatures post year 1900. Long-range versus short-range dependence, and significance of warming trends.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Martin; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Fredriksen, Hege-Beate

    2015-04-01

    We explore the statistics of instrumental surface temperature records on 5 5, 2 2, and equal-area grids. In particular, we compute the significance of determinstic trends against two parsimonious null models; auto-regressive processes of order 1, AR(1), and fractional Gaussian noises (fGn's). Both of these two null models contain a memory parameter which quantifies the temporal climate variability, with white noise nested in both classes of models. Estimates of the persistence parameters show significant positive serial correlation for most grid cells, with higher persistence over occeans compared to land areas. This shows that, in a trend detection framework, we need to take into account larger spurious trends than what follows from the frequently used white noise assumption. Tested against the fGn null hypothesis, we find that ~ 68% (~ 47%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%) significance level. If we assume an AR(1) null hypothesis instead, then the result is that ~ 94% (~ 88%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%) significance level. For both null models, the locations where we do not find significant trends are mostly the ENSO regions and the North-Atlantic. We try to discriminate between the two null models by means of likelihood-ratios. If we at each grid point choose the null model preferred by the model selection test, we find that ~ 82% (~ 73%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%). We conclude that there is emerging evidence of significant warming trends also at regional scales, although with a much lower signal-to-noise ratio compared to global mean temperatures. Another finding is that many temperature records are consistent with error models for internal variability that exhibit long-range dependence, whereas the temperature fluctuations of the tropical oceans are strongly influenced by the ENSO, and therefore seemingly more consistent with random processes with short-range dependence. Four different data products, HADCRUT4, NOAA mlost, GISS and Berkely Earth, are analyzed in this project, with similar results in all cases.

  17. Adsorption of linear alkanes on Cu(111): Temperature and chain-length dependence of the softened vibrational mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fosser, Kari A.; Kang, Joo H.; Nuzzo, Ralph G.; Wll, Christof

    2007-05-01

    The vibrational spectra of linear alkanes, with lengths ranging from n-propane to n-octane, were examined on a copper surface by reflection-absorption infrared spectroscopy. The appearance and frequency of the "soft mode," a feature routinely seen in studies of saturated hydrocarbons adsorbed on metals, were examined and compared between the different adsorbates. The frequency of the mode was found to be dependent on both the number of methylene units of each alkane as well as specific aspects of the order of the monolayer phase. Studies of monolayer coverages at different temperatures provide insights into the nature of the two-dimensional (2D) melting transitions of these adlayer structures, ones that can be inferred from observed shifts in the soft vibrational modes appearing in the C-H stretching region of the infrared spectrum. These studies support recently reported hypotheses as to the origins of such soft modes: the metal-hydrogen interactions that mediate them and the dynamics that underlay their pronounced temperature dependencies. The present data strongly support a model for the 2D to one-dimensional order-order phase transition arising via a continuous rather than discrete first-order process.

  18. COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND POLARIZATION AND TEMPERATURE POWER SPECTRA ESTIMATION USING LINEAR COMBINATION OF WMAP 5 YEAR MAPS

    SciTech Connect

    Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Jain, Pankaj; Saha, Rajib; Prunet, Simon; Souradeep, Tarun

    2010-05-01

    We estimate cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and temperature power spectra using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year foreground contaminated maps. The power spectrum is estimated by using a model-independent method, which does not utilize directly the diffuse foreground templates nor the detector noise model. The method essentially consists of two steps: (1) removal of diffuse foregrounds contamination by making linear combination of individual maps in harmonic space and (2) cross-correlation of foreground cleaned maps to minimize detector noise bias. For the temperature power spectrum we also estimate and subtract residual unresolved point source contamination in the cross-power spectrum using the point source model provided by the WMAP science team. Our TT, TE, and EE power spectra are in good agreement with the published results of the WMAP science team. We perform detailed numerical simulations to test for bias in our procedure. We find that the bias is small in almost all cases. A negative bias at low l in TT power spectrum has been pointed out in an earlier publication. We find that the bias-corrected quadrupole power (l(l + 1)C{sub l} /2{pi}) is 532 {mu}K{sup 2}, approximately 2.5 times the estimate (213.4 {mu}K{sup 2}) made by the WMAP team.

  19. An Analysis of Simulated and Observed Global Mean Near-Surface Air Temperature Anomalies from 1979 to 1999: Trends and Attribution of Causes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKay, R. M.; Ko, M. K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The 1979 - 1999 response of the climate system to variations in solar spectral irradiance is estimated by comparing the global averaged surface temperature anomalies simulated by a 2D (two dimensional) energy balance climate model to observed temperature anomalies. We perform a multiple regression of southern oscillation index and the individual model responses to solar irradiance variations, stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone trends, and greenhouse gases onto each of five near-surface temperature anomaly data sets. We estimate the observed difference in global mean near surface air temperature attributable to the solar irradiance difference between solar maximum and solar minimum to be between 0.06 and 0.11 K, and that 1.1 - 3.8% of the total variance in monthly mean near-surface air temperature data is attributable to nations in solar spectral irradiance. For the five temperature data sets used in our analysis, the trends in raw monthly mean temperature anomaly data have a large range, spanning a factor of 3 from 0.06 to 0.17 K/decade. However. our analysis suggests that trends in monthly temperature anomalies attributable to the combination of greenhouse gas, stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate aerosol variations are much more consistent among data sets, ranging from 0.16 to 0.24 K/decade. Our model results suggest that roughly half of the warming from greenhouse gases is cancelled by the cooling from changes in stratospheric ozone. Tropospheric sulfate aerosol loading in the present day atmospheric contributes significantly to the net radiative forcing of the present day climate system. However, because the change in magnitude and latitudinal distribution of tropospheric sulfate aerosol has been small over the past 20 years, the change in the direct radiative forcing attributable to changes in aerosol loading over this time is also small.

  20. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  1. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

    2009-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  2. Long-term trends observed in the middle atmosphere temperatures using ground based LIDARs and satellite borne measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishore, P.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Velicogna, I.; Sivakumar, V.; Bencherif, H.; Clemesha, B. R.; Simonich, D. M.; Batista, P. P.; Beig, G.

    2014-03-01

    Long-term data available from Lidar systems located at three different locations namely So Jos dos Campos, Brazil (23.2 S, 45.8 W), Gadanki (13.5 N, 79.2 E) and Reunion (20.8 S, 55.5 E) have been used to investigate the long-term variations like Annual, Semi-annual, Quasi-biennial, El Nino Southern Oscillation and solar cycle. These oscillations are also extracted from simultaneous satellite borne measurements of HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instrument onboard UARS and SABER onboard TIMED over these stations making largest time series covering the entire middle atmosphere. A good agreement is found between the LIDAR and satellite-derived amplitudes and phases between 30 and 65 km altitude, which suggests that satellite measurements can be used to investigate the long-term trends globally. Latter measurements are extended to 80 km in order to further investigate these oscillations. Large difference in the amplitudes between the eastern pacific and western pacific is noticed in these oscillations. Changing from cooling trends in the stratosphere to warming trends in the mesosphere occurs more or less at altitude around 70 km altitude and this result agrees well with that observed by satellite measurements reported in the literature. The peak in the cooling trend does not occur at a fixed altitude in the stratosphere however maximum warming trend is observed around 75 km at all the stations. The observed long-term trends including various oscillations are compared with that reported with various techniques.

  3. Motion induced second order temperature and y-type anisotropies after the subtraction of linear dipole in the CMB maps

    SciTech Connect

    Sunyaev, Rashid A.; Khatri, Rishi E-mail: khatri@mpa-garching.mpg.de

    2013-03-01

    y-type spectral distortions of the cosmic microwave background allow us to detect clusters and groups of galaxies, filaments of hot gas and the non-uniformities in the warm hot intergalactic medium. Several CMB experiments (on small areas of sky) and theoretical groups (for full sky) have recently published y-type distortion maps. We propose to search for two artificial hot spots in such y-type maps resulting from the incomplete subtraction of the effect of the motion induced dipole on the cosmic microwave background sky. This dipole introduces, at second order, additional temperature and y-distortion anisotropy on the sky of amplitude few ?K which could potentially be measured by Planck HFI and Pixie experiments and can be used as a source of cross channel calibration by CMB experiments. This y-type distortion is present in every pixel and is not the result of averaging the whole sky. This distortion, calculated exactly from the known linear dipole, can be subtracted from the final y-type maps, if desired.

  4. Motion induced second order temperature and y-type anisotropies after the subtraction of linear dipole in the CMB maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sunyaev, Rashid A.; Khatri, Rishi

    2013-03-01

    y-type spectral distortions of the cosmic microwave background allow us to detect clusters and groups of galaxies, filaments of hot gas and the non-uniformities in the warm hot intergalactic medium. Several CMB experiments (on small areas of sky) and theoretical groups (for full sky) have recently published y-type distortion maps. We propose to search for two artificial hot spots in such y-type maps resulting from the incomplete subtraction of the effect of the motion induced dipole on the cosmic microwave background sky. This dipole introduces, at second order, additional temperature and y-distortion anisotropy on the sky of amplitude few μK which could potentially be measured by Planck HFI and Pixie experiments and can be used as a source of cross channel calibration by CMB experiments. This y-type distortion is present in every pixel and is not the result of averaging the whole sky. This distortion, calculated exactly from the known linear dipole, can be subtracted from the final y-type maps, if desired.

  5. Dynamical Adjustment of Surface Air Temperature Fields from Large Initial-Condition Ensemble Simulations: Ensemble Spread and Multi-Decadal Trend Attribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smoliak, B. V.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A.

    2014-12-01

    Boreal cold season surface air temperature (SAT) variability and trends attributable to fluctuations in large-scale patterns of sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies are investigated in a large initial-condition (IC) ensemble of general circulation model climate change simulations using partial least squares (PLS) regression, a statistical method that specifies a predictand time series or field using multiple mutually orthogonal factors generated from a field of predictors. This specification represents a dynamical adjustment to the raw SAT field, which reduces ensemble spread by accounting for the influence of spontaneously-occurring atmospheric circulation changes unique to each ensemble member (EM). When applied independently to the simulated Northern Hemisphere (NH) SAT field from individual EMs, the methodology yields a dynamical adjustment that accounts for nearly 50% of the cold season SAT variance in each EM, validating a previous application of PLS regression to observations. Dynamical adjustment is also applied to SAT trends across the large IC ensemble, enabling the attribution of multi-decadal trends to external forcing and internal variability as well as dynamical and radiative/thermodynamic processes. When applied to the ensemble of SAT and SLP trends over a multi-decadal mid-21st Century reference interval, the methodology yields a dynamical adjustment that explains over 75% of the intra-ensemble variance of the NHSAT warming trend and accounts for about 5% of the ensemble-mean NHSAT warming trend. This methodological framework may be applied to other large IC ensembles, other climatological variables, and across a wider variety of time scales in order to investigate the role of internal variability in modulating the magnitude and patterns of historical and projected climate change.

  6. Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Released in the STEO September 1999)

    EIA Publications

    1999-01-01

    The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

  7. Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robeson, Scott M.; Willmott, Cort J.; Jones, Phil D.

    2014-12-01

    Using a spatial percentile approach, we explore the magnitude of temperature anomalies across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Linear trends in spatial percentile series are estimated for 1881-2013, the most recent 30 year period (1984-2013), and 1998-2013. All spatial percentiles in both hemispheres show increases from 1881 to 2013, but warming occurred unevenly via modification of cold anomalies, producing a reduction in spatial dispersion. In the most recent 30 year period, trends also were consistently positive, with warm anomalies having much larger warming rates than those of cold anomalies in both hemispheres. This recent trend has largely reversed the decrease in spatial dispersion that occurred during the twentieth century. While the period associated with the recent slowdown of global warming, 1998-2013, is too brief to estimate trends reliably, cooling was evident in NH warm and cold anomalies during January and February while other months in the NH continued to warm.

  8. High-precision abundances of elements in solar twin stars. Trends with stellar age and elemental condensation temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissen, P. E.

    2015-07-01

    Context. High-precision determinations of abundances of elements in the atmospheres of the Sun and solar twin stars indicate that the Sun has an unusually low ratio between refractory and volatile elements. This has led to the suggestion that the relation between abundance ratios, [X/Fe], and elemental condensation temperature, TC, can be used as a signature of the existence of terrestrial planets around a star. Aims: HARPS spectra with S/N ≳ 600 for 21 solar twin stars in the solar neighborhood and the Sun (observed via reflected light from asteroids) are used to determine very precise (σ ~ 0.01 dex) differential abundances of elements in order to see how well [X/Fe] is correlated with TC and other parameters such as stellar age. Methods: Abundances of C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn, and Y are derived from equivalent widths of weak and medium-strong spectral lines using MARCS model atmospheres with parameters determined from the excitation and ionization balance of Fe lines. Non-LTE effects are considered and taken into account for some of the elements. In addition, precise (σ ≲ 0.8 Gyr) stellar ages are obtained by interpolating between Yonsei-Yale isochrones in the log g - Teff diagram. Results: It is confirmed that the ratio between refractory and volatile elements is lower in the Sun than in most of the solar twins (only one star has the same [X/Fe]-TC distribution as the Sun), but for many stars, the relation between [X/Fe] and TC is not well defined. For several elements there is an astonishingly tight correlation between [X/Fe] and stellar age with amplitudes up to ~0.20 dex over an age interval of eight Gyr in contrast to the lack of correlation between [Fe/H] and age. While [Mg/Fe] increases with age, the s-process element yttrium shows the opposite behavior meaning that [Y/Mg] can be used as a sensitive chronometer for Galactic evolution. The Na/Fe and Ni/Fe ratios are not well correlated with stellar age, but define a tight Ni-Na relation similar to that previously found for more metal-poor stars albeit with a smaller amplitude. Furthermore, the C/O ratio evolves very little with time, although [C/Fe] and [O/Fe] change by ~0.15 dex. Conclusions: The dependence of [X/Fe] on stellar age and the [Ni/Fe]- [Na/Fe] variations complicate the use of the [X/Fe]-TC relation as a possible signature for the existence of terrestrial planets around stars. The age trends for the various abundance ratios provide new constraints on supernovae yields and Galactic chemical evolution, and the slow evolution of C/O for solar metallicity stars is of interest for discussions of the composition of exoplanets. Based on data products from observations made with ESO Telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programs given in Table 1.Tables 2 and 3 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  9. Quantitative measurement of temperature by proton resonance frequency shift at low field: a general method to correct non-linear spatial and temporal phase deformations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimault, S.; Lucas, T.; Quellec, S.; Mariette, F.

    2004-09-01

    MRI thermometry methods are usually based on the temperature dependence of the proton resonance frequency. Unfortunately, these methods are very sensitive to the phase drift induced by the instability of the scanner which prevents any temperature mapping over long periods of time. A general method based on 3D spatial modelling of the phase drift as a function of time is presented. The MRI temperature measurements were validated on gel samples with uniform and constant temperature and with a linear temperature gradient. In the case of uniform temperature conditions, correction of the phase drift proved to be essential when long periods of acquisition were required, as bias could reach values of up to 200 C in its absence. The temperature uncertainty measured by MRI was 1.2 C in average over 290 min. This accuracy is coherent with the requirements for food applications especially when thermocouples are useless.

  10. Linear and nonlinear transmission of Fe{sup 2+}-doped ZnSe crystals at a wavelength of 2940 nm in the temperature range 20220 C

    SciTech Connect

    Il'ichev, N N; Pashinin, P P; Gulyamova, E S; Bufetova, G A; Shapkin, P V; Nasibov, A S

    2014-03-28

    The linear and nonlinear transmission of Fe{sup 2+}:ZnSe crystals is measured at a wavelength of 2940 nm in the temperature range 20 220 C. It is found that, with increasing temperature from 20 C to 150 220 C, the transmission of Fe{sup 2+}:ZnSe crystals decreases in the case of incident radiation with an intensity of ?5.5 MW cm{sup -2} and increases in the case of radiation with an intensity of 28 kW cm{sup -2}. At a temperature of 220 C, the linear transmission almost coincides with the nonlinear transmission. The transmission spectra of Fe{sup 2+}:ZnSe crystals at temperatures of 22 and 220 C in the wavelength range 500 7000 nm are presented. (active media)

  11. Modelling and mapping spatio-temporal trends of heavy metal accumulation in moss and natural surface soil monitored 1990-2010 throughout Norway by multivariate generalized linear models and geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nickel, Stefan; Hertel, Anne; Pesch, Roland; Schrder, Winfried; Steinnes, Eiliv; Uggerud, Hilde Thelle

    2014-12-01

    Objective. This study explores the statistical relations between the accumulation of heavy metals in moss and natural surface soil and potential influencing factors such as atmospheric deposition by use of multivariate regression-kriging and generalized linear models. Based on data collected in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 throughout Norway the statistical correlation of a set of potential predictors (elevation, precipitation, density of different land uses, population density, physical properties of soil) with concentrations of cadmium (Cd), mercury and lead in moss and natural surface soil (response variables), respectively, were evaluated. Spatio-temporal trends were estimated by applying generalized linear models and geostatistics on spatial data covering Norway. The resulting maps were used to investigate to what extent the HM concentrations in moss and natural surface soil are correlated. Results. From a set of ten potential predictor variables the modelled atmospheric deposition showed the highest correlation with heavy metals concentrations in moss and natural surface soil. Density of various land uses in a 5 km radius reveal significant correlations with lead and cadmium concentration in moss and mercury concentration in natural surface soil. Elevation also appeared as a relevant factor for accumulation of lead and mercury in moss and cadmium in natural surface soil respectively. Precipitation was found to be a significant factor for cadmium in moss and mercury in natural surface soil. The integrated use of multivariate generalized linear models and kriging interpolation enabled creating heavy metals maps at a high level of spatial resolution. The spatial patterns of cadmium and lead concentrations in moss and natural surface soil in 1995 and 2005 are similar. The heavy metals concentrations in moss and natural surface soil are correlated significantly with high coefficients for lead, medium for cadmium and moderate for mercury. From 1995 up to 2010 the modelled moss and natural surface soil estimates indicate a decrease of lead concentration in both moss and natural surface soil. In the case of the moss data the decrease of accumulation is more pronounced. By contrast, the modelled cadmium and mercury concentrations do not exhibit any significant temporal trend. Conclusions. In Europe, there is hardly any nation-wide investigation of statistical correlations between the accumulation of heavy metals in moss and natural surface soil and potential influencing factors such as atmospheric deposition. This study could show that assessments of heavy metal concentrations in natural surface soil could complement biomonitoring with moss but should not replace it since the heavy metal concentrations in mosses reliably traces the spatial pattern of respective atmospheric deposition. Generalized linear models extend established methods for estimating spatial patterns and temporal trends of HM concentration in moss and natural surface soil.

  12. Continuous deflation and plate spreading at the Askja volcanic system, Iceland: Constrains on deformation processes from finite element models using temperature-dependent non-linear rheology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tariqul Islam, Md.; Sturkell, Erik; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn; Drouin, Vincent Jean Paul B.; feigsson, Benedikt G.

    2014-05-01

    Iceland is located on the mid Atlantic ridge, where the spreading rate is nearly 2 cm/yr. The high rate of magmatism in Iceland is caused by the interaction between the Iceland hotspot and the divergent mid-Atlantic plate boundary. Iceland hosts about 35 volcanoes or volcanic systems that are active. Most of these are aliened along the plate boundary. The best studied magma chamber of central volcanoes (e.g., Askja, Krafla, Grimsvtn, Katla) have verified (suggested) a shallow magma chamber (< 5 km), which has been model successfully with a Mogi source, using elastic and/or elastic-viscoelastic half-space. Maxwell and Newtonian viscosity is mainly considered for viscoelastic half-space. Therefore, rheology may be oversimplified. Our attempt is to study deformation of the Askja volcano together with plate spreading in Iceland using temperature-dependent non-linear rheology. It offers continuous variation of rheology, laterally and vertically from rift axis and surface. To implement it, we consider thermo-mechanic coupling models where rheology follows dislocation flow in dry condition based on a temperature distribution. Continuous deflation of the Askja volcanic system is associated with solidification of magma in the magma chamber and post eruption relaxation. A long time series of levelling data show its subsidence trend to exponentially. In our preliminary models, a magma chamber at 2.8 km depth with 0.5 km radius is introduced at the ridge axis as a Mogi source. Simultaneously far field of rift axis stretching by 18.4 mm/yr (measured during 2007 to 20013) is applied to reproduce plate spreading. Predicted surface deformation caused of combined effect of tectonic-volcanic activities is evaluated with GPS during 2003-2009 and RADARSAT InSAR data during 2000 to 2010. During 2003-2009, data from the GPS site OLAF (close to the centre of subsidence) shows average rate of subsidence 191 mm/yr relative to the ITRF2005 reference frame. The MASK (Mid ASKJA) site is another GPS station at the top of predicted centre of magma chamber correlates well with OLAF site at 500 m distance from MASK. Average subsidence rates derived from GPS measurements show comparable rate derived from InSAR data. Velocities derived from InSAR show that the yearly maximum subsidence rates in the Askja caldera decrease linearly. The optimized pressure decrease in the magma chamber from the model follows an exponential decay, with P (MPa) = 2.0177 EXP(-0.0176x), where x is the numbers of years (1,2,3 .. 10). However total ramp pressure drop during this period (10 years) is 4 MPa and additional 4.68 MPa pressure drop may be caused of rheological relaxation.

  13. A TREND BETWEEN COLD DEBRIS DISK TEMPERATURE AND STELLAR TYPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF WIDE-ORBIT PLANETS

    SciTech Connect

    Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.; Montiel, Edward

    2013-09-20

    Cold debris disks trace the limits of planet formation or migration in the outer regions of planetary systems, and thus have the potential to answer many of the outstanding questions in wide-orbit planet formation and evolution. We characterized the infrared excess spectral energy distributions of 174 cold debris disks around 546 main-sequence stars observed by both the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph and the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer. We found a trend between the temperature of the inner edges of cold debris disks and the stellar type of the stars they orbit. This argues against the importance of strictly temperature-dependent processes (e.g., non-water ice lines) in setting the dimensions of cold debris disks. Also, we found no evidence that delayed stirring causes the trend. The trend may result from outward planet migration that traces the extent of the primordial protoplanetary disk, or it may result from planet formation that halts at an orbital radius limited by the efficiency of core accretion.

  14. Detection and Monitoring of Stratigraphic Markers and Temperature Trends at the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Using Passive-Microwave Remote-Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shuman, C. A.; Alley, R. B.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Fawcett, P. J.; Bondschadler, R. A.; White, J. W. C.; Grootes, P. M.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Stearns, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Satellite passive-microwave sensors provide a sensitive means of studying ice-sheet surface processes that assists ice-core interpretation and can extend local observations across regional scales. Analysis of special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature (TB) data supports ice-core research in two specific ways. First, the summer hoar complex layers used to date the Holocene portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core can be defined temporally and spatially by SSM/I 37-GHz vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized B ratio (V/H) trends. Second, comparison of automatic weather station temperatures to SSM/I 37-GHz V TB data shows that they are an effective proxy temperature record in this region. Also, the TB data can be correlated with proxy temperature trends from stable-isotope-ratio (delta O-18 and delta-D) profiles from snow pits and this allows the assignment of dates to specific snow depths.

  15. Global trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

    1990-01-01

    Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

  16. Recent Patterns of Antarctic Surface Air Temperature Trends in the Context of Natural Variability, as Simulated by the CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; de O Lobo, A.

    2014-12-01

    One of the hallmarks of climate change in recent decades has been the dramatic warming of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), whereas the Eastern AIS (EAIS) has experienced a slight, and insignificant cooling trend. Here we examine the extent to which this spatial asymmetry in Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends might be a response to anthropogenic climate forcings, such as greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion, or rather the manifestation of large natural climate variability. We compare the observed annual mean Antarctic SAT over the 1960-2005 and 1979-2005 time periods to SAT data from 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical integrations. We find that the CMIP5 multi-model mean shows near-homogeneous warming throughout Antarctica, i.e. it lacks the observed spatial asymmetry between WAIS and EAIS. As the multi-model mean is, by construction, the forced response, we conclude that the observed spatial asymmetry in Antarctic SAT results from natural variability, which acts to mask the anthropogenic warming in the EAIS region, while amplifying the WAIS warming. In addition, contrasting historical (i.e., forced) and pre-industrial (i.e., control) integrations from these same 40 CMIP5 models, we show that the observed total Antarctic and EAIS SAT trends fall well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. In contrast, we do find that the WAIS SAT trend is more likely driven by anthropogenic forcings.

  17. Observed variability and trends in extreme temperature indices and rice-wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, Indiaa case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subash, N.; Singh, S. S.; Priya, Neha

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices and its impact on rice-wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India, which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin. Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was employed for detection of trend and Sen slope was determined to quantify the magnitude of such trends. We have analyzed 10 extreme temperature indices for monthly and seasonally. The influence of extreme temperature indices on rice-wheat productivity was determined using correlation analysis. As far as Patna is concerned, if the number of cool days during September ?10, the rice productivity will increase due to the availability of sufficient duration to fill up the grain. However, higher warm days during all the months except June will affect the productivity. A significant negative correlation was noticed between maximum value of minimum temperature during September and rice productivity. Highly significant positive correlation was noticed between number of cool days during September with rice productivity while it was highly significant negative correlation in the case of number of warm days during the same month. As far as Samastipur is concerned, a negative correlation was noticed between wheat productivity and maximum value of maximum temperature (TXx) during February, but not statistically significant. The higher temperature may affect the kernel weight and thereby yield. It is seen that a critical value of TXx ?29.2 C will be harmful to wheat crop during February. A significant positive correlation of number of cool nights with wheat productivity also supports the above relationship. The critical values of extreme temperature indices during rice and wheat growing months provide an indicator to assess the vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity to temperature for Patna and Samastipur districts and there is a need to prepare an adaptive strategy and also develop thermo-insensitive rice-wheat high yielding varieties suitable for this region to sustain rice-wheat productivity under projected climate change situation.

  18. Trends of temperature and precipitation and their impact on grapewine phenology and production of in a Mediterranean vineyard region of Northeastern Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. C.; Jones, G. V.; Martnez-Casasnovas, J. A.

    2009-04-01

    The present analysis tries to contribute to the knowledge and impacts of climate change on agriculture, in particular in dryland areas of the Mediterranean NE Spain. The analysis was carried out in the Peneds region, located in Northeastern Spain (Barcelona province). In this area, vineyards have cultivated for centuries and at present represent about 80% of the cultivated area, most of them as rainfed agriculture, without irrigation. In order to analyse climate change impacts on grape development and production, the trends of daily rainfall and temperature were analyzed for the whole year and for the growing season, as well as some bioclimatic indexes (Hugling and Winkler index) using a long data set belonging to Vilafranca del Peneds for the period 1952-2006, and shorter series belonging to the observatories of Sant Sadurn d'Anoia, Sant Mart Sarroca, Els Hostalest de Pierola for the last 12 years (1996-2007). Phenology dates and production for the last 12 years for the main varieties cultivated in the area (Macabeo, Xarello, Parellada and Chardonnay) were analysed in relation to all the climatic analysed parameters. The study revealed warming trends with higher increases in the maximum temperatures (0.04C/year) than in the minimum temperatures (0.03C/year), and a significant increase in the number of days with temperatures higher than 30C (0.43 days/year). Changes were also reproduced during the grape growing season. The increase of temperature has its influence on higher evapotranspiration ratios, which implies less effective water for crop development. Annual rainfall showed high variability from year to year and did not change significantly with time not at annual level either during the growing season. However, the precipitation of the main rainfall periods (spring and autumn) shows opposite trends, decreasing precipitation in spring and increasing in autumn. According to the vine phenological stages a significant decrease of precipitation during the bloom to vraison was observed (-0.33 mm/year), which presented a significant influence on grape production. The observed trends influence negatively grape development during the growing season, shortening the different phenological stages (vraison is advanced about 4 days/C increase of Tmin) and decreasing yield for most of the main varieties cultivated in this area for white wine and cava production (Macabeo, Xarello, Parellada).

  19. Recent temperature trends in the South Central Andes reconstructed from sedimentary chrysophyte stomatocysts in Laguna Escondida (1742 m a.s.l., 38°28 S, Chile)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Jong, R.; Schneider, T.; Hernández-Almeida, I.; Grosjean, M.

    2016-02-01

    In this study we present a quantitative, high resolution reconstruction of past austral winter length in the Chilean Andes at 38°S from AD 1920 to 2009. For Laguna Escondida, a nearly pristine lake situated on the flanks of the Andes at 1740 m above sea level, past variability in the duration of the winter season (Days T4 °C) was reconstructed. Because high elevation meteorological stations are absent in this region, the reconstruction provides novel insights into recent temperature trends in the central-southern Andes. As a cold-season temperature proxy, we used chrysophyte stomatocysts. This novel proxy for cold season temperature was so far applied successfully in the European Alps and Pyrenees but has not yet been tested in the Southern Hemisphere. The reconstruction in this study was based on a newly developed Transfer Function to estimate Days T4 °C (number of consecutive days with surface water temperatures at or below 4 °C) from sedimentary stomatocyst assemblages (R2boot = 0.8, RMSEPboot = 28.7 days (= half the standard deviation)). To develop a high quality TF model, sediment traps and thermistors were placed in thirty remote lakes along an altitude gradient (420-2040 m a.s.l.). Complete materials and data were collected in 24 lakes after one year. Detailed statistical analyses indicate that modern stomatocysts primarily respond to the length of the cold season. The TF model was then applied to the sedimentary stomatocysts from a 210Pb-dated short core of L. Escondida. Comparison to independent reanalysis data showed that reconstructed changes in Days T4°C provides detailed information on winter-spring temperature variability since AD 1920. The reconstruction shows that recent warming (onset in AD 1980) in the southern Chilean Andes was not exceptional in the context of the past century. This is in strong contrast to studies from the Northern Hemisphere. The finding is also in contrast to the cooling temperature trends which were detected using meteorological measurement data in low altitude sites along the Chilean coast. This finding confirms that coastal meteorological station data in this region do not reliably reflect recent temperature trends at high altitudes. Moreover, it implies a southward shift of the northern border of the Westerlies wind belt. This study clearly illustrates the importance of quantitative, high resolution studies from remote sites, in particular at high elevation mountain areas.

  20. The Heat Resistance of Microbial Cells Represented by D Values Can be Estimated by the Transition Temperature and the Coefficient of Linear Expansion.

    PubMed

    Nakanishi, Koichi; Kogure, Akinori; Deuchi, Keiji; Kuwana, Ritsuko; Takamatsu, Hiromu; Ito, Kiyoshi

    2015-01-01

    We previously developed a method for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms by measuring the transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion of a cell changes. Here, we performed heat resistance measurements using a scanning probe microscope with a nano thermal analysis system. The microorganisms studied included six strains of the genus Bacillus or related genera, one strain each of the thermophilic obligate anaerobic bacterial genera Thermoanaerobacter and Moorella, two strains of heat-resistant mold, two strains of non-sporulating bacteria, and one strain of yeast. Both vegetative cells and spores were evaluated. The transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion due to heating changed from a positive value to a negative value correlated strongly with the heat resistance of the microorganism as estimated from the D value. The microorganisms with greater heat resistance exhibited higher transition temperatures. There was also a strong negative correlation between the coefficient of linear expansion and heat resistance in bacteria and yeast, such that microorganisms with greater heat resistance showed lower coefficients of linear expansion. These findings suggest that our method could be useful for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms. PMID:26699861

  1. Relationship between decreased temperature range and precipitation trends in the United States and Canada, 1941--1980

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.; Kukla, G.; Gavin, J.

    1986-12-01

    Previous work has shown significant decreases of the diurnal temperature range (1941--1980) across a network of 130 station in the United States and Canada. In the present study, changes in monthly total precipitation at these same stations were related to the decrease in temperature range using various Monte Carlo tests. These tests indicate that factors other than those related to precipitation contributed to the decrease of daily temperature range. Further study of the mechanisms responsible for the decreased temperature range is warranted, based on these results. The decreased range may be one of the few pieces of evidence available in North America that is consistent with potential impacts of increased greenhouse gases and/or anthropogenic aerosols. 19 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Relationship between decreased temperature range and precipitation trends in the United States and Canada, 1941--80

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.; Kukla, G.; Gavin, J.

    1986-12-01

    Previous work has shown significant decreases of the diurnal temperature range (1941--80) across a network of 130 stations in the United States and Canada. In the present study, changes in monthly total precipitation at these same stations were related to the decrease in temperature range using various Monte Carlo tests. These tests indicate that factors other than those related to precipitation contributed to the decrease of daily temperature range. Further study of the mechanisms responsible for the decreased temperature range is warranted, based on these results. The decreased range may be one of the few pieces of evidence available in North America that is consistent with potential impacts of increased greenhouse gases and/or anthropogenic aerosols.

  3. Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century: Variability, trend, and connections to long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Bin

    Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit variability on interannual to centennial time scales. This dissertation addresses the challenge to separate SST natural variability from the nonstationary (largely anthropogenic) warming trend; and, based on the clarified variability/trend patterns, evaluate SST forcing of long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains. First, a consistent analysis of natural variability and secular trend in the twentieth century Pacific SSTs is presented. By focusing on spatial and temporal recurrence, but without imposition of periodicity constraints, this single analysis discriminates between biennial, ENSO and decadal variabilities, leading to refined evolutionary descriptions; and between these natural variability modes and secular trend. Specifically, canonical ENSO variability is encapsulated in two modes that depict the growth and decay phases. Another interannual mode, energetic in recent decades, is shown linked to the west-to-east SST development seen in post--climate shift ENSOs: the non-canonical ESNO mode. Pacific decadal variability (PDV) is characterized by two modes: the Pan-Pacific mode has a horse-shoe structure with the closed end skirting the North American coast, and a quiescent eastern equatorial Pacific. The second decadal mode---the North Pacific mode---captures the 1976/77 climate shift and is closer to Mantua's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Implicit accommodation of natural variability leads to a nonstationary SST trend, including midcentury cooling. These Pacific---and residual Atlantic---SST modes are then investigated for their connections to long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains. During the Dust Bowl, dry anomalies in summer are found primarily linked to cool SSTs in the central tropical Pacific associated with non-canonical ENSO, as well as warm SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic associated with Atlantic Nino; in spring, however, dry anomalies are overwhelmed by connections to extratropical basins, when the cool phase of the SST trend coincided with a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Dry (wet) anomalies during the 1950s (1980s) are shown linked to the warm (cool) phase of the North Pacific decadal mode, as well as a warm (cool) AMO. The analysis suggests comparable importance of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in drought forcing, and highlights the role of the extratropical basins.

  4. Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, Mark D.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    2012-01-01

    Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

  5. Unreliability of global temperature trends: the circular logic of comparing models with models or with models inspired reconstructions to circumvent lack of validation versus actual measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, A.; Ollier, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    This recent paper by Marotzke and Forster [1] has received media attention because it claims to have shown that the recent pause in surface temperature rise was the result of natural variability, and that climate models are not systematically overestimating the global warming. Nicholas Lewis [2] has already commented about the serious statistical errors in the paper that make the conclusion unsustainable.We note here that their supporting evidence is actually alteration of pre-selected data to sustain the global warming narrative. The "observed trends" of Marotzke and Forster are not based on the truly measured temperatures in every world gridded cell of the land and sea since the 1860s, but only on a reconstruction based on selected, scattered data that are continuously recalculated to resemble the climate model outputs.

  6. Tree-ring derived Little Ice Age temperature trends from the central British Columbia Coast Mountains, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, Kara J.; Smith, Dan J.

    2012-11-01

    Most glaciers in the British Columbia Coast Mountains reached their maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age. Early- and late-Little Ice Age intervals of expansion and retreat fluctuations describe a mass-balance response to changing climates. Although existing dendroclimatic records provide insights into these climatic fluctuations over the last 400 yr, their short durations prohibit evaluation of early-Little Ice Age climate variability. To extend the duration of these records, submerged coarse woody debris salvaged from a high-elevation lake was cross-dated to living chronologies. The resulting chronology provides the opportunity to reconstruct a regional June-July air-temperature anomaly record extending from AD 1225 to 2010. The reconstruction shows that the intervals AD 1350-1420, 1475-1550, 1625-1700 and 1830-1940 characterized distinct periods of below-average June-July temperature followed by periods of above-average temperature. Our reconstruction provides the first annually resolved insights into high-elevation climates spanning the Little Ice Age in this region and indicates that Little Ice Age moraine stabilization corresponds to persistent intervals of warmer-than-average temperatures. We conclude that coarse woody debris submerged in high-elevation lakes has considerable potential for developing lengthy proxy climate records, and we recommend that researchers focus attention on this largely ignored paleoclimatic archive.

  7. Evaluating CMIP5 models using GPS radio occultation COSMIC temperature in UTLS region during 2006-2013: twenty-first century projection and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishore, P.; Basha, Ghouse; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Narayana Rao, D.

    2016-02-01

    This paper provides a first overview of the performance of global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperatures. Temperature from CMIP5 models is evaluated with high resolution global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate (COSMIC) data during the period of July 2006-December 2013. Future projections of 17 CMIP5 models based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios are utilized to assess model performance and to identify the biases in the temperature in the UTLS region at eight different pressure levels. The evaluations were carried out vertically, regionally, and globally to understand the temperature uncertainties in CMIP5 models. It is found that the CMIP5 models successfully reproduce the general features of temperature structure in terms of vertical, annual, and inter-annual variation. The ensemble mean of CMIP5 models compares well with the COSMIC GPSRO data with a mean difference of ±1 K. In the tropical region, temperature biases vary from one model to another. The spatial difference between COSMIC and ensemble mean reveals that at 100 hPa, the models show a bias of about ±2 K. With increase in altitude the bias decreases and turns into a cold bias over the tropical and Antarctic regions. The future projections of the CMIP5 models were presented during 2006-2099 under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. Projections show a warming trend at 300, 200, and 100 hPa levels over a wide region of 60°N-45°S. The warming decreases rapidly and becomes cooling with increase in altitudes by the end of twenty-first century. Significant cooling is observed at 30, 20, and 10 hPa levels. At 300/10 hPa, the temperature trend increases/decreases by ~0.82/0.88 K/decade at the end of twenty-first century under RCP 8.5 scenarios.

  8. Lubricated Bearing Lifetimes of a Multiply Alkylated Cyclopentane and a Linear Perfluoropolyether Fluid in Oscillatory Motion at Elevated Temperatures in Ultrahigh Vacuum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braza, Joseph; Jansen, Mark J.; Jones, William R.

    2009-01-01

    Bearing life tests in vacuum with three space liquid lubricants, two multiply alkylated cyclopentanes (MACs) and a linear perfluoropolyether (PFPE) were performed. Test conditions included: an 89 N axial load (mean Hertzian stress 0.66 GPa), vacuum level below 7x10(exp -4) Pa, and a +/-30deg dither angle. Dither rate was 75 cycles per minute. Higher (110 to 122 C) and lower temperature tests (75 C) were performed. For the higher temperature tests, the PFPE, Fomblin (Ausimont SpA) Z25 outperformed Pennzane (Shell Global Solutions) X-2000 by more than an order of magnitude. Lubricant evaporation played a key role in these high temperature results. At 75 C, the order was reversed with both Pennzane X-1000 and X-2000 outperforming Fomblin Z25 by more than an order of magnitude. Most Pennzane tests were suspended without failure. The primary failure mechanism in these lower temperature tests was lubricant consumption in the tribocontacts.

  9. Non-linear effects of initial melt temperatures on microstructures and mechanical properties during quenching process of liquid Cu46Zr54 alloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mo, Yun-Fei; Liu, Rang-Su; Tian, Ze-An; Liang, Yong-Chao; Zhang, Hai-Tao; Hou, Zhao-Yang; Liu, Hai-Rong; Zhang, Ai-long; Zhou, Li-Li; Peng, Ping; Xie, Zhong

    2015-05-01

    A MD simulation of liquid Cu46Zr54 alloys has been performed for understanding the effects of initial melt temperatures on the microstructural evolution and mechanical properties during quenching process. By using several microstructural analyzing methods, it is found that the icosahedral and defective icosahedral clusters play a key role in the microstructure transition. All the final solidification structures obtained at different initial melt temperatures are of amorphous structures, and their structural and mechanical properties are non-linearly related to the initial melt temperatures, and fluctuated in a certain range. Especially, there exists a best initial melt temperature, from which the glass configuration possesses the highest packing density, the optimal elastic constants, and the smaller extent of structural softening under deforming.

  10. Intercomparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations of the 20th century maximum and minimum temperatures over India and detection of climatic trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonali, P.; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact assessment has become one of the most important subjects of the research community because of the recent increase in frequency of extreme events and changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of climate. This paper analyses the ability of 46 coupled climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP5 and CMIP3). The performance of each climate model was assessed based on its skills in simulating the current seasonal cycles (monthly) of both maximum temperature and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin) over India. The performance measures such as coefficient of correlation (Skill_r), root mean square error (Skill_rmse), and the skill in simulating the observed probability density function (Skill_s) are mainly employed for evaluation of the simulated monthly seasonal cycle. A new metric called Skill_All which is an intersection of the above three metrics has been defined for the first time. A notable enhancement of Skill_All for CMIP5 vis-a-vis CMIP3 is observed. Further, three best CMIP5 models each for Tmax and Tmin were selected. The methodology employed in this study for model assessment is implemented for the first time for India, which establishes a robust foundation for the climate impact assessment study. The seasonal trends in Tmax and Tmin were analyzed over all the temperature homogenous regions of India for different time slots during the 20th century. Significant trends in Tmin can be seen during most of the seasons over the entire Indian region during last four decades. This establishes the signature of climate change over most parts of India.

  11. Linear dimensional change, compressive strength and detail reproduction in type IV dental stone dried at room temperature and in a microwave oven

    PubMed Central

    da SILVA, Marcos Aurlio Bomfim; VITTI, Rafael Pino; CONSANI, Simonides; SINHORETI, Mrio Alexandre Coelho; MESQUITA, Marcelo Ferraz; CONSANI, Rafael Leonardo Xediek

    2012-01-01

    The type IV dental stone is widely used for the fabrication of dyes and master casts for fixed and removable partial prostheses. It is typically normal to wait at least 24 hours for the casts to dry prior to beginning the laboratory procedures. The waiting time has been shown to be greatly reduced by using microwave drying. Objective This study evaluated the influence of drying techniques at room temperature and microwave oven on the linear dimensional change, compressive strength and detail reproduction in type IV dental stones. Material and Methods Three type IV dental stone brands were selected; Elite Rock, Shera Premium and Durone IV. Two different drying protocols were tested in 4 groups (n=10); G1 - room temperature (254C) dried for 2 hours; G2 - room temperature dried for 24 hours; G3 - room temperature dried for 7 days and G4 - microwave oven dried at 800 W for 5 minutes and after 2 hours at room temperature. After drying, the samples were assayed for dimensional charges. The sample surface was submitted to the ImageTool 3.0 software for compressive strength in a universal testing machine with a cell load of 50 KN at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/minutes and the detail reproduction was analyzed with a stereomicroscope at 25x magnification. The statistical analysis of the linear dimensional change and compressive strength data were conducted by the ANOVA test followed by the Tukey test (p<0.05). Detailed reproduction values were reported in percentages. Results For the compressive strength test, Elite Rock and Durone IV did not present significant differences between G2 and G4, while Shera Premium did not present differences between G3 and G4. The best reproduction levels were observed for G3. Conclusions Dental stone microwave oven drying showed a linear dimensional change similar to after room temperature drying for 24 hours and 7 days. The compressive strength of the stone dried in the microwave oven was similar to those dried at room temperature for 24 hours, with the exception of Shera Premium, which had similar results for microwave and room temperature drying for 7 days. For the microwave drying method the detail reproduction levels for samples dried at room temperature for 24 hours and 7 days were similar, except for the Durone IV. PMID:23138748

  12. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013

    PubMed Central

    Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes T.; Duc, Nguyen Huu Chau; Thang, Tran Binh; An, Do Dang; Hang, Lai Thi Minh; Long, Tran Thanh; Loan, Bui Thi Hong; Honda, Yasushi

    2016-01-01

    Background The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City. PMID:26781954

  13. Mann-Kendall trend of pollutants, temperature and humidity over an urban station of India with forecast verification using different ARIMA models.

    PubMed

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Dutta, Debashree

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the present research is to identify the trends in the concentrations of few atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters over an urban station Kolkata (22° 32' N; 88° 20' E), India, during the period from 2002 to 2011 and subsequently develop models for precise forecast of the concentration of the pollutants and the meteorological parameters over the station Kolkata. The pollutants considered in this study are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulates of size 10-μm diameters (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and tropospheric ozone (O3). The meteorological parameters considered are the surface temperature and relative humidity. The Mann-Kendall, non-parametric statistical analysis is implemented to observe the trends in the data series of the selected parameters. A time series approach with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling is used to provide daily forecast of the parameters with precision. ARIMA models of different categories; ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 2, 2) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) are considered and the skill of each model is estimated and compared in forecasting the concentration of the atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters. The results of the study reveal that the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) is the best statistical model for forecasting the daily concentration of pollutants as well as the meteorological parameters over Kolkata. The result is validated with the observation of 2012. PMID:24705814

  14. NASA trend analysis procedures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  15. Seasonal trend of photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, L; Baldocchi, DD

    2003-09-01

    OAK-B135 Understanding seasonal changes in photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance is crucial for modeling long-term carbon uptake and energy fluxes of ecosystems. Gas exchange measurements of CO{sub 2} and light response curves on blue oak leaves (Quercus douglasii H. & A.) were conducted weekly throughout the growing season to study the seasonality of photosynthetic capacity (V{sub cmax}) and Ball-Berry slope (m) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature. A leaf photosynthetic model was used to determine V{sub cmax}. There was a pronounced seasonal pattern in V{sub cmax}. The maximum value of V{sub cmax}, 127 {micro}molm{sup -2} s{sup -1},was reached shortly after leaf expansion in early summer, when air temperature was moderate and soil water availability was high. Thereafter, V{sub cmax} declined as the soil water profile became depleted and the trees experienced extreme air temperatures, exceeding 40 C. The decline in V{sub cmax} was gradual in midsummer, however, despite extremely low predawn leaf water potentials ({Psi}{sub pd}, {approx} -4.0 MPa). Overall, temporal changes in V{sub cmax} were well correlated with changes in leaf nitrogen content. During spring leaf development, high rates of leaf dark respiration (R{sub d}, 5-6 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}) were observed. Once a leaf reached maturity, R{sub d} remained low, around 0.5 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}. In contrast to the strong seasonality of V{sub cmax}, m and marginal water cost per unit carbon gain ({partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A) were relatively constant over the season, even when leaf {Psi}{sub pd} dropped to -6.8 MPa. The constancy of {partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A suggests that stomata behaved optimally under severe water-stress conditions. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of modeling carbon and water vapor exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere.

  16. Contribution to linearly programmed temperature gas chromatography. Further application of the Van den Dool-Kratz equation, and a new utilization of the Sadtler retention index library.

    PubMed

    Santiuste, Jos M; Tarjn, Gza; Ullrich, Ede; Takcs, Jzsef M

    2008-02-15

    Programmed temperature retention indices (PTRIs) calculated according to the equations of Van den Dool and Kratz, Golovnya and Uraletz, and Erdey et al. (also referred to as Antoine's integrated equation) are used in this work. Precalculation of isotherm retention indices from the results of a linearly programmed temperature GC is also presented. Deviations between experimental and calculated isothermal retention indices are below 2 retention index units. A relative "volatility" retention index is defined, as a function of the "volatilities"of the solute and the bracket reference n-alkanes. The comparison of the "volatility" retention indices with the PTRIs obtained with the other above equations shows absolute deviations of up to 4 retention index units. Based on an earlier "equivalent" temperature concept and on Tekler's proviso, a novel way for the utilization of Sadtler's retention index database, which takes advantage of the 3 data supplied by the library, is proposed. PMID:18201710

  17. Role of annealing temperatures on structure polymorphism, linear and nonlinear optical properties of nanostructure lead dioxide thin films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeyada, H. M.; Makhlouf, M. M.

    2016-04-01

    The powder of as synthesized lead dioxide (PbO2) has polycrystalline structure β-PbO2 phase of tetragonal crystal system. It becomes nanocrystallites α-PbO2 phase with orthorhombic crystal system upon thermal deposition to form thin films. Annealing temperatures increase nanocrystallites size from 28 to 46 nm. The optical properties of α-PbO2 phase were calculated from absolute values of transmittance and reflectance at nearly normal incidence of light by spectrophotometer measurements. The refractive and extinction indices were determined and showed a response to annealing temperatures. The absorption coefficient of α-PbO2 films is >106 cm-1 in UV region of spectra. Analysis of the absorption coefficient spectra near optical edge showed indirect allowed transition. Annealing temperature decreases the value of indirect energy gap for α-PbO2 films. The dispersion parameters such as single oscillator energy, dispersion energy, dielectric constant at high frequency and lattice dielectric constant were calculated and its variations with annealing temperatures are reported. The nonlinear refractive index (n2), third-order nonlinear susceptibility (χ(3)) and nonlinear absorption coefficient (βc) were determined. It was found that χ(3), n2 and β increase with increasing photon energy and decrease with increasing annealing temperature. The pristine film of α-PbO2 has higher values of nonlinear optical constants than for annealed films; therefore it is suitable for applications in manufacturing nonlinear optical devices.

  18. Mechanical properties, glass transition temperature, and bond enthalpy trends of high metalloid Fe-based bulk metallic glasses

    SciTech Connect

    Gu, X. J.; Poon, S. Joseph; Shiflet, Gary J.; Widom, Michael

    2008-04-21

    Mechanical properties and glass transition temperatures (T{sub g}) of Fe-Cr-Mo-P-C-B bulk metallic glasses containing up to 27 at. % metalloids have been studied. The shear modulus (G) is found to decrease with increasing metalloid content and a maximum plastic strain of {approx}3% is obtained, despite the increase in the number of strong metal-metalloid bonds. Also, T{sub g} increases with the decrease in G, in contrast to usual behavior. By employing first-principles calculations, the results are discussed in light of atomic bonding and connectivity in the amorphous network. The findings are relevant to understanding ductility and glass transition of metallic glasses.

  19. Evaluation of temperature gradients within combusting droplets in linear stream using two colors laser-induced fluorescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castanet, Guillaume; Delconte, Alain; Lemoine, Fabrice; Mees, Loc; Grhan, Grard

    2005-08-01

    The scope of this paper concerns the heating process of fuel droplets injected in a hot gaseous environment. The two colors laser-induced fluorescence technique allows measuring the temperature distribution within a droplet by scanning the droplet volume by a sufficiently small probe volume compared to the droplet volume itself. The temperature field is reconstructed using two approaches which have been compared. One is based on a geometrical optics model and the other is based on the 3D calculation of the internal excitation field within the droplet, using the generalized Lorenz-Mie theory. Experimental results have been obtained on a combusting monodisperse ethanol droplet stream (diameter around 200 ?m).

  20. Non-linear absorption of 1.3-?m wavelength femtosecond laser pulses focused inside semiconductors: Finite difference time domain-two temperature model combined computational study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogatyrev, I. B.; Grojo, D.; Delaporte, P.; Leyder, S.; Sentis, M.; Marine, W.; Itina, T. E.

    2011-11-01

    We present a theoretical model, which describes local energy deposition inside IR-transparent silicon and gallium arsenide with focused 1.3-?m wavelength femtosecond laser pulses. Our work relies on the ionization rate equation and two temperature model (TTM), as we simulate the non-linear propagation of focused femtosecond light pulses by using a 3D finite difference time domain method. We find a strong absorption dependence on the initial free electron density (doping concentration) that evidences the role of avalanche ionization. Despite an influence of Kerr-type self-focusing at intensity required for non-linear absorption, we show the laser energy deposition remains confined when the focus position is moved down to 1-mm below the surface. Our simulation results are in agreement with the degree of control observed in a simple model experiment.

  1. Century-scale trends and seasonality in pH and temperature for shallow zones of the Bering Sea

    PubMed Central

    Fietzke, Jan; Ragazzola, Federica; Halfar, Jochen; Dietze, Heiner; Foster, Laura C.; Hansteen, Thor Henrik; Eisenhauer, Anton; Steneck, Robert S.

    2015-01-01

    No records exist to evaluate long-term pH dynamics in high-latitude oceans, which have the greatest probability of rapid acidification from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We reconstructed both seasonal variability and anthropogenic change in seawater pH and temperature by using laser ablation high-resolution 2D images of stable boron isotopes (δ11B) on a long-lived coralline alga that grew continuously through the 20th century. Analyses focused on four multiannual growth segments. We show a long-term decline of 0.08 ± 0.01 pH units between the end of the 19th and 20th century, which is consistent with atmospheric CO2 records. Additionally, a strong seasonal cycle (∼0.22 pH units) is observed and interpreted as episodic annual pH increases caused by the consumption of CO2 during strong algal (kelp) growth in spring and summer. The rate of acidification intensifies from –0.006 ± 0.007 pH units per decade (between 1920s and 1960s) to –0.019 ± 0.009 pH units per decade (between 1960s and 1990s), and the episodic pH increases show a continuous shift to earlier times of the year throughout the centennial record. This is indicative of ecosystem shifts in shallow water algal productivity in this high-latitude habitat resulting from warming and acidification. PMID:25713385

  2. Century-scale trends and seasonality in pH and temperature for shallow zones of the Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Fietzke, Jan; Ragazzola, Federica; Halfar, Jochen; Dietze, Heiner; Foster, Laura C; Hansteen, Thor Henrik; Eisenhauer, Anton; Steneck, Robert S

    2015-03-10

    No records exist to evaluate long-term pH dynamics in high-latitude oceans, which have the greatest probability of rapid acidification from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We reconstructed both seasonal variability and anthropogenic change in seawater pH and temperature by using laser ablation high-resolution 2D images of stable boron isotopes (?(11)B) on a long-lived coralline alga that grew continuously through the 20th century. Analyses focused on four multiannual growth segments. We show a long-term decline of 0.08 0.01 pH units between the end of the 19th and 20th century, which is consistent with atmospheric CO2 records. Additionally, a strong seasonal cycle (? 0.22 pH units) is observed and interpreted as episodic annual pH increases caused by the consumption of CO2 during strong algal (kelp) growth in spring and summer. The rate of acidification intensifies from -0.006 0.007 pH units per decade (between 1920s and 1960s) to -0.019 0.009 pH units per decade (between 1960s and 1990s), and the episodic pH increases show a continuous shift to earlier times of the year throughout the centennial record. This is indicative of ecosystem shifts in shallow water algal productivity in this high-latitude habitat resulting from warming and acidification. PMID:25713385

  3. Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berger, Carl F.

    A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential

  4. Non-linear scaling of oxygen consumption and heart rate in a very large cockroach species (Gromphadorhina portentosa): correlated changes with body size and temperature.

    PubMed

    Streicher, Jeffrey W; Cox, Christian L; Birchard, Geoffrey F

    2012-04-01

    Although well documented in vertebrates, correlated changes between metabolic rate and cardiovascular function of insects have rarely been described. Using the very large cockroach species Gromphadorhina portentosa, we examined oxygen consumption and heart rate across a range of body sizes and temperatures. Metabolic rate scaled positively and heart rate negatively with body size, but neither scaled linearly. The response of these two variables to temperature was similar. This correlated response to endogenous (body mass) and exogenous (temperature) variables is likely explained by a mutual dependence on similar metabolic substrate use and/or coupled regulatory pathways. The intraspecific scaling for oxygen consumption rate showed an apparent plateauing at body masses greater than about 3 g. An examination of cuticle mass across all instars revealed isometric scaling with no evidence of an ontogenetic shift towards proportionally larger cuticles. Published oxygen consumption rates of other Blattodea species were also examined and, as in our intraspecific examination of G. portentosa, the scaling relationship was found to be non-linear with a decreasing slope at larger body masses. The decreasing slope at very large body masses in both intraspecific and interspecific comparisons may have important implications for future investigations of the relationship between oxygen transport and maximum body size in insects. PMID:22399658

  5. Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

    2011-12-01

    The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and act as important carbon sinks, particularly during May and June when seasonal sea ice-associated phytoplankton blooms occur throughout the region. Recent dramatic shifts in seasonal sea ice cover across the PAR should have profound consequences for this seasonal phytoplankton production as well as the intimately linked higher trophic levels. In order to investigate ecosystem responses to these observed recent shifts in sea ice cover, the development of a prototype Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is now underway in the PAR. The DBO is being developed as an internationally-coordinated change detection array that allows for consistent sampling and monitoring at five spatially explicit biologically productive locations across a latitudinal gradient: (1) DBO-SLP (south of St. Lawrence Island (SLI)), (2) DBO-NBS (north of SLI), (3) DBO-SCS (southern Chukchi Sea), (4) DBO-CCS (central Chukchi Sea), and (5) DBO-BCA (Barrow Canyon Arc). Standardized measurements at many of the DBO sites were made by multiple research cruises during the 2010 and 2011 pilot years, and will be expanded with the development of the DBO in coming years. In order to provide longer-term context for the changes occurring across the PAR, we utilize multi-sensor satellite data to investigate recent trends in sea ice cover, chlorophyll biomass, and sea surface temperatures for each of the five DBO sites, as well as a sixth long-term observational site in the Bering Strait. Satellite observations show that over the past three decades, trends in sea ice cover in the PAR have been heterogeneous, with significant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, but increases in the northern Bering Sea south of SLI. Declines in the persistence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait region are due to both earlier sea ice breakup and later sea ice formation. Sea surface temperatures have also shown warming, where sites show significant warming particularly during August, September, and October. Satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations over the past decade have shown trends seemingly in direct response to changing sea ice conditions, with increasing trends in chlorophyll-a concentrations when sea ice declines (and vice versa). In some cases, however, satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations do not show expected changes with sea ice variability, indicating that limitations on biological productivity in this region are complex and spatially heterogeneous. An understanding of these spatial and temporal complexities impacting biological productivity is needed for the accurate prediction of how overall ecosystems may be altered with further expected warming sea surface temperatures and declines in sea ice cover.

  6. Statistical properties of record-breaking temperatures.

    PubMed

    Newman, William I; Malamud, Bruce D; Turcotte, Donald L

    2010-12-01

    A record-breaking temperature is the highest or lowest temperature at a station since the period of time considered began. The temperatures at a station constitute a time series. After the removal of daily and annual periodicities, the primary considerations are trends (i.e., global warming) and long-range correlations. We first carry out Monte Carlo simulations to determine the influence of trends and long-range correlations on record-breaking statistics. We take a time series that is a Gaussian white noise and give the classic record-breaking theory results for an independent and identically distributed process. We then carry out simulations to determine the influence of long-range correlations and linear temperature trends. For the range of fractional Gaussian noises that are observed to be applicable to temperature time series, the influence on the record-breaking statistics is less than 10%. We next superimpose a linear trend on a Gaussian white noise and extend the theory to include the effect of an additive trend. We determine the ratios of the number of maximum to the number of minimum record-breaking temperatures. We find the single governing parameter to be the ratio of the temperature change per year to the standard deviation of the underlying white noise. To test our approach, we consider a 30 yr record of temperatures at the Mauna Loa Observatory for 1977-2006. We determine the temperature trends by direct measurements and use our simulations to infer trends from the number of record-breaking temperatures. The two approaches give values that are in good agreement. We find that the warming trend is primarily due to an increase in the (overnight) minimum temperatures, while the maximum (daytime) temperatures are approximately constant. PMID:21230709

  7. Statistical properties of record-breaking temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, William I.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2010-12-01

    A record-breaking temperature is the highest or lowest temperature at a station since the period of time considered began. The temperatures at a station constitute a time series. After the removal of daily and annual periodicities, the primary considerations are trends (i.e., global warming) and long-range correlations. We first carry out Monte Carlo simulations to determine the influence of trends and long-range correlations on record-breaking statistics. We take a time series that is a Gaussian white noise and give the classic record-breaking theory results for an independent and identically distributed process. We then carry out simulations to determine the influence of long-range correlations and linear temperature trends. For the range of fractional Gaussian noises that are observed to be applicable to temperature time series, the influence on the record-breaking statistics is less than 10%. We next superimpose a linear trend on a Gaussian white noise and extend the theory to include the effect of an additive trend. We determine the ratios of the number of maximum to the number of minimum record-breaking temperatures. We find the single governing parameter to be the ratio of the temperature change per year to the standard deviation of the underlying white noise. To test our approach, we consider a 30 yr record of temperatures at the Mauna Loa Observatory for 1977-2006. We determine the temperature trends by direct measurements and use our simulations to infer trends from the number of record-breaking temperatures. The two approaches give values that are in good agreement. We find that the warming trend is primarily due to an increase in the (overnight) minimum temperatures, while the maximum (daytime) temperatures are approximately constant.

  8. Two-dimensional temperature determination in the exhaust region of a laminar flat-flame burner with linear Raman scattering.

    PubMed

    Rabenstein, F; Leipertz, A

    1997-09-20

    For planar temperature measurements in combusting flows, the well-established laser Raman technique has been further developed to provide two-dimensional local resolution. After excitation with a frequency-doubled Nd:YAG laser, the anti-Stokes and the Stokes Raman signals of the vibrational Q branch of molecular N(2) were detected at 473.3 and 607.3 nm, respectively. From the ratio of the two images, two-dimensional temperature distributions have been obtained by application of an analytical function, which was determined from theoretically calculated Raman spectra. Time-averaged measurements have been performed in the exhaust region of an atmospheric-pressure laminar CH(4)/air flat-flame burner for different equivalence ratios. The accuracy and precision of the results are discussed in combination with the prospects for time-resolved single-pulse measurements. PMID:18259572

  9. Finite Element Based Stress Analysis of Graphite Component in High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Core Using Linear and Nonlinear Irradiation Creep Models

    SciTech Connect

    Mohanty, Subhasish; Majumdar, Saurindranath

    2015-01-01

    Irradiation creep plays a major role in the structural integrity of the graphite components in high temperature gas cooled reactors. Finite element procedures combined with a suitable irradiation creep model can be used to simulate the time-integrated structural integrity of complex shapes, such as the reactor core graphite reflector and fuel bricks. In the present work a comparative study was undertaken to understand the effect of linear and nonlinear irradiation creep on results of finite element based stress analysis. Numerical results were generated through finite element simulations of a typical graphite reflector.

  10. Long-term trends in sea surface temperature in coastal water in relation to large-scale climate change: A case study in Omura Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeshige, Aigo; Takahashi, Tetsuya; Nakata, Hideaki; Kimura, Shingo

    2013-09-01

    Long-term trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in Omura Bay were investigated using heat balance estimates based on a daily data set obtained for 40 years (1955-1995) by the National Pearl Research Laboratory. SST during the heating period (from March to August) tended to decrease, whereas that during most of the cooling period (from September to February) increased during these 40 years. The maximum rates of SST decrease and increase were found to be 0.020 C year-1 in August and 0.028 C year-1 in January, respectively. The sea surface heat balance analysis revealed that shortwave radiation flux decreased in the heating period due to decrease in solar radiation, resulting in a decrease in SST. In the cooling period, the increase in SST was attributed to the decrease in latent and sensible heat fluxes due to increased air temperature and decreased wind speed. These climatic changes affecting SST in Omura Bay showed a close linkage with global dimming and the East Asian monsoon circulation.

  11. Research and development program for non-linear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature dependent constitutive relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.

    1981-01-01

    Results of a 20-month research and development program for nonlinear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature constitutive relationships are reported. The program included: (1) the evaluation of a number of viscoplastic constitutive models in the published literature; (2) incorporation of three of the most appropriate constitutive models into the MARC nonlinear finite element program; (3) calibration of the three constitutive models against experimental data using Hastelloy-X material; and (4) application of the most appropriate constitutive model to a three dimensional finite element analysis of a cylindrical combustor liner louver test specimen to establish the capability of the viscoplastic model to predict component structural response.

  12. Quasi-continuous-time impurity solver for the cluster dynamical mean-field theory with linear scaling in the inverse temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rost, Daniel; Assaad, Fakher; Blmer, Nils

    2015-03-01

    We present an extension to the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA) of an recently developed unbiased quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) impurity solver for single-site DMFT. The novel algorithm is based on a multigrid version of BSS-QMC, which yields Green functions free of significant Trotter errors, and scales linearly with the inverse temperature ? = 1 / T and cubically in the cluster size N. We use the superior scaling to explore ultra-low temperature regimes at moderate cluster sizes, not reachable with state-of-the-art continuous time QMC impurity solvers that scale cubically in ?. Benchmark results for the the two-dimensional (2d) Hubbard model, compared with complementary methods (unbiased lattice QMC, dynamical vertex approximation (D ?A)), are presented as well as a study of the 2d doped Kondo lattice model.

  13. Influence of Chemical Cross-Linking on the Over Voltage Positive Temperature Coefficient of Linear Low Density Polyethylene/carbon Black/aluminum Hydroxide Nano Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, C. Y.; Tsai, C. S.; Tsao, K. Y.

    2008-08-01

    The effect of cross-linking of blends on the stability of positive temperature coefficient (PTC) and the elimination of negative temperature coefficient (NTC) were investigated. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) was chemically cross-linking with various amounts of dicumyl peroxide (DCP). The resulting of cross-linking structure of composites was analyzed by gel content, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). By the effect of DCP, not only a high PTC intensity appeared, but also was the NTC effect of the composite eliminated. The PTC intensity reached six orders of magnitude for the LLDPE/DCP(0.10 wt%)/CB/Al(OH)3 composite, and successfully passed the test of over-voltage resistance.

  14. Recent and historical range shifts of two canopy-forming seaweeds in North Spain and the link with trends in sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duarte, Linney; Viejo, Rosa M.; Martnez, Brezo; deCastro, Maite; Gmez-Gesteira, Moncho; Gallardo, Toms

    2013-08-01

    Geographical range shifts of two canopy-forming seaweeds, Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F. Gray and Fucus serratus L. were investigated at their southern range boundary in Northern Spain from the end of nineteenth century to 2009. Given the good dispersal abilities of H. elongata and its short life-span, we hypothesize that this species will track environmental changes at a faster rate than the perennial and short-distance disperser F. serratus. Our results show a continuous and drastic westward retraction of H. elongata, which has nowadays virtually vanished in Northern Spain, whereas F. serratus is still found in the westernmost area. Despite this, the first species is still relatively abundant in the Iberian Peninsula, whereas the presence of the latter is scattered and reduced. Overall, range shifts fit with the warming trend in sea surface temperature (SST), whereas it is unlikely that increases in grazing pressure or coastal pollution have driven the observed changes, particularly the rapid trend in recent years. Differences in species traits are linked to range dynamics. The higher persistence of F. serratus at eastern shores may thus be related to its longer life span and its greater thermal tolerance. The presence of sporadic populations of H. elongata outside the zone of continuous distribution can be attributed to long-distance dispersal events during cold pulses. Relict populations in isolated and estuarine locations were left behind in the contracting range margins, particularly for F. serratus. In Northern Spain, the westward retreat of large canopy-forming algae seems to be a general phenomenon, involving other species such as kelps. Therefore, an evident reorganization of coastal assemblages is expected, though the temporal extent of changes and the consequences for ecosystem services need to be evaluated.

  15. Response of the Summertime Ground-level Ozone Trend in the Chicago Area to Emission Controls and Temperature Changes 2005-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, P.; Lu, Z.; Xing, J.; Streets, D. G.; Tan, Q.; O'Brien, T.; Kamberos, J.

    2014-12-01

    Despite strenuous efforts to reduce the emissions of ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) still often exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard in U.S. cities in summertime, including Chicago. Furthermore, studies have projected a future increase in O3 formation due to global climate change. This study examines the response of summertime O3 to emission controls and temperature change in the Chicago area from 2005 to 2013 by employing observations of O3, O3 precursors, and meteorological variables. We find that meteorology explains about 53% of the O3 variance in Chicago. O3 mixing ratios over Chicago are found to show no clear decline over the 2005-2013 period. The summertime ground-level O3 trend consists of a decrease of 0.08 ppb/year between 2005 and 2009 and an increase of 1.49 ppb/year between 2009 and 2013. Emissions of NOx and concentrations of NO2 have been decreasing steadily from 2005 to 2013 in the Chicago area. Concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Chicago, however, have more than doubled since 2009, even though emission inventories suggest that VOC emissions have decreased. We believe that O3 production in Chicago became more sensitive to VOCs starting in 2008/2009 and may have switched from being NOx-limited to VOC-limited. The warmer climate since 2008 has also contributed to the increasing ozone trend in the Chicago area. Increased attention should be paid to improving the quantification of VOC sources, enhancing the monitoring of reactive VOC concentrations, and designing VOC mitigation measures.

  16. Response of the summertime ground-level ozone trend in the Chicago area to emission controls and temperature changes, 2005-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Ping; Lu, Zifeng; Xing, Jia; Streets, David G.; Tan, Qian; O'Brien, Timothy; Kamberos, Joseph

    2014-12-01

    Despite strenuous efforts to reduce the emissions of ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) still often exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard in U.S. cities in summertime, including Chicago. Furthermore, studies have projected a future increase in O3 formation due to global climate change. This study examines the response of summertime O3 to emission controls and temperature change in the Chicago area from 2005 to 2013 by employing observations of O3, O3 precursors, and meteorological variables. We find that meteorology explains about 53% of the O3 variance in Chicago. O3 mixing ratios over Chicago are found to show no clear decline over the 2005-2013 period. The summertime ground-level O3 trend consists of a decrease of 0.08 ppb/year between 2005 and 2009 and an increase of 1.49 ppb/year between 2009 and 2013. Emissions of NOx and concentrations of NO2 have been decreasing steadily from 2005 to 2013 in the Chicago area. Concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Chicago, however, have more than doubled since 2009, even though emission inventories suggest that VOC emissions have decreased. We believe that O3 production in Chicago became more sensitive to VOCs starting in 2008/2009 and may have switched from being NOx-limited to VOC-limited. The warmer climate since 2008 has also contributed to the increasing ozone trend in the Chicago area. Increased attention should be paid to improving the quantification of VOC sources, enhancing the monitoring of reactive VOC concentrations, and designing VOC mitigation measures.

  17. Linear variable differential transformer (LVDT)-based elongation measurements in Advanced Test Reactor high temperature irradiation testing

    SciTech Connect

    D. L. Knudson; J. L. Rempe

    2012-02-01

    New materials are being considered for fuel, cladding, and structures in next generation and existing nuclear reactors. These materials can undergo significant dimensional and physical changes during high temperature irradiations. Currently, such changes are determined by repeatedly irradiating a specimen for a specified period of time in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and then removing it from the reactor for evaluation. The labor and time to remove, examine, and return irradiated samples for each measurement makes this approach very expensive. In addition, such techniques provide limited data and may disturb the phenomena of interest. To resolve these issues, an instrumented creep testing capability is being developed for specimens irradiated in pressurized water reactor (PWR) coolant conditions in the ATR at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This paper reports the status of INL efforts to develop this testing capability. In addition to providing an overview of in-pile creep test capabilities available at other test reactors, this paper focuses on efforts to design and evaluate a prototype test rig in an autoclave at INL's High Temperature Test Laboratory (HTTL).

  18. Linear variable differential transformer (LVDT)-based elongation measurements in Advanced Test Reactor high temperature irradiation testing

    SciTech Connect

    D. L. Knudson; J. L. Rempe

    2012-02-01

    New materials are being considered for fuel, cladding and structures in next generation and existing nuclear reactors. These materials can undergo significant dimensional and physical changes during high temperature irradiations. Currently, such changes are determined by repeatedly irradiating a specimen for a specified period of time in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and then removing it from the reactor for evaluation. The labor and time to remove, examine and return irradiated samples for each measurement make this approach very expensive. In addition, such techniques provide limited data and may disturb the phenomena of interest. To resolve these issues, an instrumented creep testing capability is being developed for specimens irradiated under pressurized water reactor coolant conditions in the ATR at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This paper reports the status of INL efforts to develop this testing capability. In addition to providing an overview of in-pile creep test capabilities available at other test reactors, this paper focuses on efforts to design and evaluate a prototype test rig in an autoclave at INL’s High Temperature Test Laboratory.

  19. Dilatometer for measurements of linear dimension variations under the effects of temperature, magnetic field and mechanical stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherepin, V. T.; Glavatska, N. I.; Glavatsky, I. N.; Gavriljuk, V. G.

    2002-02-01

    A multi-purpose automated dilatometer has been developed for simultaneous measurements of the expansion/contraction under the effects of magnetic field and/or mechanical stress and/or temperature. The differential capacitive position sensor, operating together with the microprocessor controlled digital transformer bridge, is used as a displacement transducer with the resolution of several tens of nanometres. Measurements are accomplished in the temperature range from -150 to 200 C. The automatically controlled variation of the applied magnetic field is provided by the electromagnet with the field homogeneity of 0.510-5 of the magnetic field strength (maximum 1.1 T). A special controlling system is developed for the automated mechanical loading of the sample under investigation. Some examples of the measurements completed on the magnetic shape memory alloy Ni2MnGa are presented for three cases: (i) strain as a function of the applied magnetic field; (ii) creep under constant magnetic field or mechanical stress; and (iii) phase transformations during heating/cooling with and without the applied magnetic field.

  20. Improving J{sub c} reproducibility in Ag-sheathed Bi-based tapes by a non-linear temperature-time sintering process

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, W.G.; Liu, H.K.; Dou, S.X.

    1997-06-01

    An improvement in reproducibility of the critical current density (J{sub c}) has been obtained in Ag-sheathed Bi2223 tapes made by the powder-in-tube method using a non-linear temperature-time sintering process. In this process, the sintering temperature was slowly raised from the temperature of emergence of a liquid phase (about 800{degrees}C) to the temperature of sufficient crystal growth of 2223 phase (830{degrees}C), so that the rate of liquid formation could be controlled and rapid growth of the non-superconducting phases could be prevented. A reduction of about 30 % per pass during rolling, one intermediate pressing and total sintering time less than 120 hours were employed in this process. The texture of the tape made by this process is better than that of the tape made by isothermal sintering. An average J{sub c} of 3.18 x 10{sup 4} A/cm{sup 2} at 77 K in self-field with a deviation 17 % was measured in tapes made by this method, compared with an average J{sub c} of 2.09 x 10{sup 4} A/cm{sup 2} at 77 K with a deviation up to 80 % in tapes made by a normal isothermal sintering. Doping pure silver powder into incompletely reacted powder is used to control transformation from 2212 to 2223 and enhance the texture. The J{sub c}-field dependence was improved by increasing number of pressing. The fine dispersed phase of Ca-Sr-Pb-O was observed by EDX analysis in tapes made by the non-linear sintering, while the Sr-Ca-Cu-O phase in tapes made by isothermal sintering was commonly found.

  1. Recent climate trends and multisecular climate variability: temperature and precipitation during the cold season (October-March) in the Ebro Basin (NE of Spain) betrween 1500 and 2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saz-Sanchez, M.-A.; Cuadrat-Prats, J.-M.

    2009-09-01

    One of the goals of Paleoclimatology is to assess the importance and the exceptional nature of recent climate trends related to the anthropogenic climate change. Instrumental data enable the analysis of last century's climate, but do not give any information on previous periods' precipitation and temperature, during which there was no anthropic intervention on the climate system. Dendroclimatology is one of the paleoclimatic reconstruction sources giving best results when it comes to reconstructing the climate of the time before instruments could be used. This work presents the reconstructed series of precipitation and temperature of the cold season (October-March) In the central sector of the Ebro Valley (NE of Spain). The chronologies used for the reconstruction come on the one hand from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and on the other hand from the dendrochronol