Sample records for linear temperature trends

  1. Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marielle Lesperance; Jason E. Smerdon; Hugo Beltrami

    2010-01-01

    Previous studies have tested the long-term coupling between air and terrestrial subsurface temperatures working under the assumption that linear trends in surface air temperature should be equal to those measured at depth within the subsurface. A one-dimensional model of heat conduction is used to show that surface trends are attenuated as a function of depth within conductive media on time

  2. Trends in stratospheric temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Newman, P. A.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Boville, B. A.; Chandra, S.; Fels, S.; Fleming, E.; Gelman, M.

    1989-01-01

    Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

  3. Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface

    E-print Network

    Beltrami, Hugo

    Lesperance,1 Jason E. Smerdon,2 and Hugo Beltrami1 Received 16 April 2010; revised 9 July 2010; accepted 11 tracking. Citation: Lesperance, M., J. E. Smerdon, and H. Beltrami (2010), Propagation of linear surface

  4. Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. B. Lesperance; H. Beltrami; J. E. Smerdon

    2009-01-01

    The thermal regime of the continental subsurface contains the record of the most recent changes in the energy balance at the ground surface. Borehole paleoclimatology methods can be applied to infer past ground surface temperature changes and to estimate the heat storage of the subsurface, thus contributing to ascertain the overall energy budget of the climate system. A crucial point

  5. Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

  6. Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. A. Cane; A. C. Clement; A. Kaplan

    1997-01-01

    An analysis of historical sea surface temperatures provides evidence for global warming since 1900, in line with land-based analyses of global temperature trends, and also shows that over the same period, the eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient strengthened. Recent theoretical studies have predicted such a pattern as a response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

  7. Model space visualization for multivariate linear trend discovery

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zhenyu Guo; Matthew O. Ward; Elke A. Rundensteiner

    2009-01-01

    Discovering and extracting linear trends and correlations in datasets is very important for analysts to understand multivariate phenom- ena. However, current widely used multivariate visualization tech- niques, such as parallel coordinates and scatterplot matrices, fail to reveal and illustrate such linear relationships intuitively, especially when more than 3 variables are involved or multiple trends coex- ist in the dataset. We

  8. Simulation of recent global temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Graham, N E

    1995-02-01

    Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s. This study shows that the most recent portion of the global temperature record (1970 to 1992) can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. In agreement with a diverse suite of controversial observational evidence from the past 40 years, the upward trend in simulated tropospheric temperatures is caused by an enhancement of the tropical hydrologic cycle driven by increasing tropical ocean temperatures. Although it is possible that the observed behavior is due to natural climate variability, there is disquieting similarity between these model results, observed climate trends in recent decades, and the early expressions of the climatic response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide in numerical simulations. PMID:17745844

  9. Trends in Surface Temperature from AIRS.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.; Aumann, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    To address possible causes of the current hiatus in the Earth's global temperature we investigate the trends and variability in the surface temperature using retrievals obtained from the measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), onboard of Aqua spacecraft in 2002-2014. The data used are L3 monthly means on a 1x1degree spatial grid. We separate the land and ocean temperatures, as well as temperatures in Artic, Antarctic and desert regions. We find a monotonic positive trend for the land temperature but not for the ocean temperature. The difference in the regional trends can help to explain why the global surface temperature remains almost unchanged but the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events increases under rising anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared with the model studies. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  10. Spring phenology trends in Alberta, Canada: links to ocean temperature

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. G. Beaubien; H. J. Freeland

    2000-01-01

    Warmer winter and spring temperatures have been noted over the last century in Western Canada. Earlier spring plant development\\u000a in recent decades has been reported for Europe, but not for North America. The first-bloom dates for Edmonton, Alberta, were\\u000a extracted from four historical data sets, and a spring flowering index showed progressively earlier development. For Populus tremuloides, a linear trend

  11. Linear trends of temperature at intermediate and deep layers of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Oceans: 1957-1981

    SciTech Connect

    Antonov, J.I. (State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation))

    1993-10-01

    Using all available hydrographic station data on ocean temperature observations from World Data Center-B (Obninsk, Russia), investigation of temperature changes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans within the depth range of 300 to 3,000 m has been carried out for the period 1957--1981. Results of statistical data analysis show that in the upper layer to about 500-m depths of both oceans, on average, seawater temperature declined. Deeper than 500--600 m in the North Pacific Ocean, no significant temperature changes have been revealed for this 25-year time interval. On average, for the North Atlantic Ocean, a statistically significant temperature rise (about 0.1[degrees]C 25 yr[sup [minus]1]) is observed in the 800- to 2,500-m layer. 28 refs., 20 figs., 2 tab.

  12. Linear Trends of Temperature at Intermediate and Deep Layers of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Oceans: 1957-1981

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John I. Antonov

    1993-01-01

    Using all available hydrographic station data on ocean temperature observations from World Data Center-B (Obninsk, Russia), investigation of temperature changes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans within the depth range of 300 to 3000 m has been carried out for the period 1957-1981.Results of statistical data analysis show that in the upper layer to about 500-m depths of

  13. The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Thompson, David W J; Seidel, Dian J; Randel, William J; Zou, Cheng-Zhi; Butler, Amy H; Mears, Carl; Osso, Albert; Long, Craig; Lin, Roger

    2012-11-29

    A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them. PMID:23192146

  14. Spring phenology trends in Alberta, Canada: links to ocean temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaubien, E. G.; Freeland, H. J.

    Warmer winter and spring temperatures have been noted over the last century in Western Canada. Earlier spring plant development in recent decades has been reported for Europe, but not for North America. The first-bloom dates for Edmonton, Alberta, were extracted from four historical data sets, and a spring flowering index showed progressively earlier development. For Populus tremuloides, a linear trend shows a 26-day shift to earlier blooming over the last century. The spring flowering index correlates with the incidence of El Niño events and with Pacific sea-surface temperatures.

  15. Global trends of measured surface air temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Lebedeff, Sergej

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents the results of surface air temperature measurements from available meteorological stations for the period of 1880-1985. It is shown that the network of meteorological stations is sufficient to yield reliable long-term, decadal, and interannual temperature changes for both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere, despite the fact that most stations are located on the continents. The results indicate a global warming of about 0.5-0.7 C in the past century, with warming of similar magnitude in both hemispheres. A strong warming trend between 1965 and 1980 raised the global mean temperature in 1980 and 1981 to the highest level in the period of instrumental records. Selected graphs of the temperature change in each of the eight latitude zones are included.

  16. Temperature Trends from Homogenized German Radiosonde Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Margit; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    We present homogenization procedure and results for Germany's historical radiosonde records, dating back to 1950. Upper-air temperature records have been homogenized manually. The method makes use of the different RS networks existing in East and West-Germany from the 1950s until 1990. The largest temperature adjustments, up to 2.5K, apply to Freiberg sondes used in the East in the 1950s and 1960s. Adjustments for Graw H50 and M60 sondes, used in the West from the 1950s to the late 1980s, and for RKZ sondes, used in the East in the 1970s and 1980s, are also significant, 0.3 to 0.5K. Small differences between Vaisala RS80 and RS92 sondes used throughout Germany since 1990 and 2005, respectively, were not corrected for at levels from the ground to 300 hPa. Comparison of the homogenized data with other radiosonde datasets, RICH and HadAT2, and with Microwave Sounding Unit satellite data, shows generally good agreement. HadAT2 data exhibit a few suspicious spikes in the 1970s and 1980s, and some suspicious offsets up to 1K after 1995. Compared to RICH, our homogenized data show slightly different temperatures in the 1960s and 1970s. We find that the troposphere over Germany has been warming by 0.25 ± 0.1K per decade since the early 1960s, slightly more than reported in other studies. The stratosphere has been cooling, with the trend increasing from almost no change near 230hPa (the tropopause) to -0.5 ± 0.2K per decade near 50hPa. Trends from the homogenized data are more positive by about 0.1K per decade than for the original data, both in troposphere and stratosphere.

  17. Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiktev, Dmitry; Caesar, John; Alexander, Lisa V.; Shiogama, Hideo; Collier, Mark

    2007-05-01

    The performance of five global coupled climate models in simulating temporal trends in annual indices of extremes in surface temperature and precipitation during the second half of the 20th century is examined. The selected models are all represented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Linear trend patterns for individual model runs along with single- and multimodel ensemble mean trend patterns are objectively compared against corresponding observed trend fields. Some positive effects of the multimodel ``super-ensemble'' approach were found when there was reasonable skill in contributing members.

  18. Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

  19. Northern hemisphere temperature trends: A possible greenhouse gas effect

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David J. Karoly

    1989-01-01

    Radiosonde temperature data from 147 stations in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1964-85 have been used to investigate recent temperature trends in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Experiments with atmospheric general circulation models indicate that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will lead to reduced temperatures in the stratosphere as well as increased temperatures in the troposphere.

  20. Simulation of recent global temperature trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    N. E. Graham

    1995-01-01

    Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s. This study shows that the most recent portion of the global temperature record (1970 to 1992) can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. In agreement

  1. Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nicholas E. Graham

    1995-01-01

    Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s. This study shows that the most recent portion of the global temperature record (1970 to 1992) can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. In agreement

  2. Global patterns in lake surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Reilly, C.; Sharma, S.; Gray, D.; Hampton, S. E.; Read, J. S.; Rowley, R.; McIntyre, P. B.; Lenters, J. D.; Schneider, P.; Hook, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Temperature profoundly affects dynamics in the water bodieson which human societies depend worldwide. Even relatively small water temperature changes can alter lake thermal structure with implications for water level, nutrient cycling, ecosystem productivity, and food web dynamics. As air temperature increases with climate change and human land use transforms watersheds, rising water temperatures have been reported for individual lakes or regions, but a global synthesis is lacking; such a synthesis is foundational for understanding the state of freshwater resources. We investigated global patterns in lake surface water temperatures between 1985 and 2009 using in-situ and satellite data from 236 lakes. We demonstrate that lakes are warming significantly around the globe, at an average rate of 0.34 °C per decade. The breadth of lakes in this study allowed examination of the diversity of drivers across global lakes, and highlighted the importance of ice cover in determining the suite of morphological and climate drivers for lake temperature dynamics. These empirical results are consistent with modeled predictions of climate change, taking into account the extent to which water warming can be modulated by local environmental conditions and thus defy simple correlations with air temperature. The water temperature changes we report have fundamental importance for thermal structure and ecosystem functioning in global water resources; recognition of the extent to which lakes are currently in transition should have broad implications for regional and global models as well as for management.

  3. Global trends of measured surface air temperature

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James Hansen; Sergej Lebedeff

    1987-01-01

    We analyze surface air temperature data from available meteorological stations with principal focus on the period 1880-1985. The temperature changes at mid- and high latitude stations separated by less than 1000 km are shown to be highly correlated; at low latitudes the correlation falls off more rapidly with distance for nearby stations. We combine the station data in a way

  4. Reconciling tropospheric temperature trends from the microwave sounding unit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Po-Chedley, Stephen

    The University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have constructed long-term temperature records for deep atmospheric layers using satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU) and advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU) observations. However, these groups disagree on the magnitude of global temperature trends since 1979, including the trend for the mid-tropospheric layer (TMT). This study evaluates the selection of the MSU TMT warm target factor for the NOAA-9 satellite using five homogenized radiosonde products as references. The analysis reveals that the UAH TMT product has a positive bias of 0.051 +/- 0.031 in the warm target factor that artificially reduces the global TMT trend by 0.042 K decade-1 for 1979--2009. Accounting for this bias, we estimate that the global UAH TMT trend should increase from 0.038 K decade-1 to 0.080 K decade-1, effectively eliminating the trend difference between UAH and RSS and decreasing the trend difference between UAH and NOAA by 47%. This warm target factor bias directly affects the UAH lower tropospheric (TLT) product and tropospheric temperature trends derived from a combination of TMT and lower stratospheric (TLS) channels.

  5. Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects 18 January 2012

    E-print Network

    1 Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects 18 January 2012 James Hansen, Reto Ruedy-1980 is shown in Figure 1 at both the 1200 km and 250 km resolutions of the GISS analysis (Hansen et al., 2010 for the full global anomaly, as discussed by Hansen et al. (2010).1 The global temperature anomaly from 1880

  6. Seasonality in future tropical lower stratospheric temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lei; Waugh, Darryn W.

    2015-02-01

    The seasonality of the 21st century trends in tropical lower stratospheric temperature (LST) is examined in simulations by a group of comprehensive chemistry-climate models. In contrast to the past LST trends, there is robust seasonal dependence among ensembles of the same model. Furthermore, most models show strongest cooling around July-September and minimal cooling in February-March, which results in a weakening of the seasonality in tropical LST. Sensitivity simulations with isolated forcing reveal that greenhouse gas increases dominate the future tropical LST trend. This seasonally varying LST trend is linked to changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). The BDC can influence the LST through direct dynamical heating/cooling and indirect radiative effects primarily from ozone changes due to vertical transport. The latter is found to be the main cause for the seasonality of the 21st century LST trend, while it is difficult to separate them in the past.

  7. The Trends of Soil Temperature Change Associated with Air Temperature Change in Korea from 1973 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Bo-Hyun; Park, Byeong-Hak; Koh, Eun-Hee; Lee, Kang-Kun

    2015-04-01

    Examining long-term trends of the soil temperature can contribute to assessing subsurface thermal environment. The recent 40-year (1973-2012) meteorological data from 14 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations was analyzed in this study to estimate the temporal variations of air and soil temperatures (at depths 0.5 and 1.0m) in Korea and their relations. The information on regional characteristics of study sites was also collected to investigate the local and regional features influencing the soil temperature. The long-term increasing trends of both air and soil temperatures were estimated by using simple linear regression analysis. The air temperature rise and soil temperature rise were compared for every site to reveal the relation between air and soil temperature changes. In most sites, the proportion of soil temperature rise to air temperature rise was nearly one to one except a few sites. The difference between the air and soil temperature trends at those sites may be attributed to the combined effect of soil properties such as thermal diffusivity and soil moisture content. The impact of urbanization on the air and soil temperature was also investigated in this study. Establishment of the relationship between the air and soil temperatures can help predicting the soil temperature change in a region where no soil temperature data is obtained by using air temperature data. For rigorous establishment of the relationship between soil and air temperatures, more thorough investigation on the soil thermal properties is necessary through additional monitoring and accompanied validation of the proposed relations. Keywords : Soil temperature, Air temperature, Cross-correlation analysis, Soil thermal diffusivity, Urbanization effect Acknowledgement This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for Groundwater Development and Application in Riversides (Geowater+)" in "Water Resources Management Program (code 11 Technology Innovation C05)" of the MOLIT and the KAIA in Korea.

  8. Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

    2015-04-01

    Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

  9. Maximum And Minimum Temperature Trends In Mexico For The Last 31 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero-Centeno, R.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.; Allende Arandia, M. E.; Carrasco-Mijarez, N.; Calderon-Bustamante, O.

    2013-05-01

    Based on high-resolution (1') daily maps of the maximum and minimum temperatures in Mexico, an analysis of the last 31-year trends is performed. The maps were generated using all the available information from more than 5,000 stations of the Mexican Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) for the period 1979-2009, along with data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The data processing procedure includes a quality control step, in order to eliminate erroneous daily data, and make use of a high-resolution digital elevation model (from GEBCO), the relationship between air temperature and elevation by means of the average environmental lapse rate, and interpolation algorithms (linear and inverse-distance weighting). Based on the monthly gridded maps for the mentioned period, the maximum and minimum temperature trends calculated by least-squares linear regression and their statistical significance are obtained and discussed.

  10. Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

    2007-09-21

    Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand the manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.

  11. Summer temperature trends in a Mediterranean area (Valencia region)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miró, J. J.; Estrela, M. J.; Millán, M.

    2006-06-01

    Within the area of climate change, summer temperatures are of special interest because of the economic, social and environmental consequences that can derive from their hypothetical increase. A number of recent studies have shown a worldwide trend towards increasing summer temperatures. In this work, we analyse summer temperatures (July and August) in the Valencia region of Spain from 1958 to the present, with the aim of characterising their evolution and detecting any trend towards a higher frequency of warmer days. First results indicate that in our study area there is indeed a higher frequency of days with tropical characteristics and persistent heat; in contrast, we found no tendency to exceed the records of absolute maximum temperatures.

  12. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded. PMID:25631444

  13. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, S.; Leptoukh, G. G.; Romanov, P.

    2011-12-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is an important element to measure the state of the terrestrial ecosystems and to study the surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected the global monthly LST measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS LST time series have ~11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and ~9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend and variability. In this study, monthly climatology from two satellite platforms are calculated and compared. The spatial patterns of LST trends are accessed, focusing on the Asian Monsoon region. Furthermore, the MODIS LST trends are compared with the skin temperature trend from the NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (MODERN ERA RETROSPECTIVE-ANALYSIS FOR RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS), which has longer data record since 1979. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS LST will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy access and use by scientists and general public.

  14. The Impact of Urbanization on Global Surface Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hausfather, Z.; Mosher, S.; Menne, M. J.; Williams, C. N.; Stokes, N.; Jones, D.

    2011-12-01

    Rapid urbanization over the past half century has contributed to a warming bias in some Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) temperature records. The extent to which this urban warming bias contributes to global temperature trends remains largely unquantified both in raw and homogenized datasets, and no clear consensus exists on the need for specific urbanization corrections in global temperature reconstructions. In order to determine the magnitude of urbanization bias in the dataset, and to quantify the extent to which the newly adopted GHCN homogenization procedures correct for it, we examine minimum, maximum, and mean temperature trends from stations classified using numerous proxies for urbanity including MODIS, urban boundaries (GRUMP), satellite nightlights, and impermeable surface area, each created from publicly available high-resolution GIS datasets. These urbanity proxies are used to segment stations into separate urban and rural sets, and temperature differences between the two are calculated using both spatial gridding and station pairing approaches. The analysis is performed on raw and homogenized monthly data derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Daily dataset that includes approximately 24,000 temperature measurement stations during the period from 1960 to present. Homogenized data that have been further adjusted using NASA GISS's Satellite Nightlight urban correction are also evaluated. The magnitude of the urbanization bias in the raw data and the degree to which this bias is mitigated with homogenization is discussed.

  15. Estimating stratospheric temperature trends using satellite microwave radiances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudson, Robert D.; Newman, Paul A.; Schoeberl, Mark R.

    1990-01-01

    The objective was to evaluate and intercompare stratospheric temperatures using Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data as a basis data set. The MSU, aboard the NOAA polar orbiter satellite series, provides twice daily global coverage over a layer (50-150 mb) at approximately a (170km)(exp 2) resolution. Conventional data sets will be compared to the satellite data in the lower stratosphere in order to assess their quality for trend computations.

  16. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them with global datasets can provide some indication on biases. Compared to the global BEST dataset for the same countries, the national datasets of Austria, Italy and Switzerland have a 0.36°C per century stronger trend since 1901. For the trend since 1960 we can also take Australia, France and Slovenia into account and find a trend bias of 0.40°C per century. Relative to CRUCY the trend biases are smaller and only statistically significant for the period since 1980. The most direct way to study biases in the temperature records is by making parallel measurements with historical measurement set-ups. Several recent parallel data studies for the transition to Stevenson screens suggest larger biases: Austria 0.2°C, Spain 0.5 & 0.6°C. As well as older tropical ones: India 0.42°C and Sri Lanka 0.37°C. The smaller values from the Parker (1994) review mainly stem from parallel measurements from North-West Europe, which may have less problems with exposure. Furthermore, the influence of many historical transitions, especially the ones that could cause an artificial smaller trend, have not been studied in detail yet. We urgently need to study improvements of exposure (especially in the (sub-)tropics), increases in watering and irrigation, mechanical ventilation, better paints, relocations to airports, and relocations to suburbs of stations that started in the cities and from village centers to pasture, for example. Our current understanding surprisingly suggests that the more recent period may have the largest biases, but it could also be that even the best datasets are unable to improve earlier data sufficiently. If the temperature trend were actually larger it would reduce discrepancies between studies for a number of problems in climatology. For example, the estimates of transient climate sensitivity using instrumental data are lower as the one using climate models, volcanic eruptions or paleo data. Furthermore, several changes observed in the climate system are larger than expected. On the other hand, a large trend in the land surface temperature would make th

  17. Recent Trends of Linear and Angular Pseudorandom Encoder Development

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Denic; I. Randelovic; G. Miljkovic

    2006-01-01

    A new type of absolute encoders, named pseudorandom absolute encoders, was developed to avoid using of large number of code tracks and to achieve high-resolution measurements. Here, a method for parallel reading of pseudorandom code using photodetector array is proposed. Then follows a realization of direct zero position adjustment function as a new trend in absolute encoder's development. That realization

  18. Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence

    E-print Network

    Douglass, D H; Singer, F; Knappenberger, P C; Michaels, P J

    2004-01-01

    Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the disparity is real. Introducing an additional data set, R2 2 meter temperatures, a diagnostic variable related to tropospheric temperature profiles, we find trends derived from it to be in close agreement with satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature. This suggests that the disparity likely is a result of near-surface processes. We find that the disparity does not occur uniformly across the globe, but is primarily confined to tropical regions which are primarily oceanic. Since the ocean measurements are sea surface temperatures, we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Our study thus makes unlikely some of the explanations advanced to account for the disparity; it also demonstrates the importance of disting...

  19. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy W.; Christy, John R.

    1990-01-01

    Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth's surface. Accurate global atmospheric temperature estimates are needed for detection of possible greenhouse warming, evaluation of computer models of climate change, and for understanding important factors in the climate system. Analysis of the first 10 years (1979 to 1988) of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes reveals a monthly precision of 0.01 C, large temperature variability on time scales from weeks to several years, but no obvious trend for the 10-year period. The warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983, and 1980. The years 1984, 1985, and 1986 were the coolest.

  20. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

  1. Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii: A direct measurement of global warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turcotte, D. L.; Malamud, B. D.

    2009-12-01

    Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. Here, we examine the hourly temperature records at this observatory for the 30-year period (1977-2006). We determine the linear trends in the annual averaged data as a function of the time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 6:00 local time) we find a near uniform warming trend, dT/dt ? 0.04 °C/yr. During the day, the warming trend moderates to a slight cooling, with dT/dt ? -0.01 °C/yr at 12:00 (noon). Our hourly data shows that there is a mean daily warming trend dT/dt = 0.022 °C/yr for this period. The global temperature trend inferred from CO2 data by the IPCC in 2007 was dT/dt = 0.017(+0.009, -0.006) °C/yr. The direct measurement from our observations is in quite good agreement with the IPCC value. A decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a direct signature of a greenhouse effect of CO2. For the Mauna Loa Observatory data we find a relatively large decrease in DTR with a yearly DTR change of d(DTR)/dt = -0.051 °C/yr over the 30 year period under consideration. It is of interest to compare the high altitude Mauna Loa data with the sea level data at the Tutuila Observatory, American Samoa, for the same period. At Tutuila, the mean temperature trend is dT/dt = -0.013 °C/yr and d(DTR)/dt = -0.051 °C/yr. The greenhouse effect is the same at the two observatories, but the temperature trend is quite different. The latter can be attributed to the buffering effect of the ocean. We suggest that the temperature trends observed at the Mauna Loa Observatory are consistent with the observed increases in CO2 concentrations at the observatory, and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

  2. Concurrent trends in snow cover and air temperature in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Brox Nilsen, Irene; Stagge, James Howard; Merete Tallaksen, Lena

    2015-04-01

    At northern latitudes, the sensitivity to global warming is amplified as a result of the unique annual cycle and intensive growth season, which influences the radiative fluxes (e.g. the transport of energy). The Northern Hemisphere snow cover has a strong positive feedback on the energy balance through its influence on the surface albedo. A reduction in snow cover leads to a lowering of the albedo and thus, enhances the warming. Previous and ongoing research have revealed a major increase in air temperature for the whole of Norway, notable in winter and a general reduction in the snow cover at lower altitudes. In this study, we assess to what degree changes in snow cover (i.e. whether or not there is snow on the ground) can explain the enhanced temperature increase in winter. Daily time series of temperature, snow depth and snow cover area available for the whole of Norway at a spatial resolution of 1 km from seNorge (www.senorge.no) are analysed for the period 1958 to 2013. Data is successively aggregated for periods of 30 years (e.g., 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010). The aim is threefold; i) to estimate trends and changes in the climate variables on a monthly basis for selected 30-year periods for the whole of Norway ii) to analyse spatial patterns and concurrent trends in the variable and iii) assess to what degree changes in snow cover can explain the enhanced winter temperature using statistical methods, e.g., the regression test. The Theil-Sen estimator was selected for the trend analysis as it considers the relative differences of all the pairs of data of the considered dataset and is less sensitive to outliers than other estimators. Preliminary results confirm an increasing trend in temperature (especially in winter months). A substantial change in the snow cover area throughout the year is found. Later snowfall is seen in the northern parts of Norway in October, gradually shifting southwards. In November, snow cover reduction is notable in the southern coastal area, and in December a diminishing snow cover is found primarily at the south-east coast. Further, the snow depth decreases over the whole of Norway with larger reduction seen from January to May in the eastern part of Norway. This is likely a result of a shift in precipitation from snow to rain in both the beginning of winter as well as in early spring. In April/May reduction in snow cover is found in the lowlands and throughout the summer a reduction is seen also further north and in the highlands.

  3. Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years

    E-print Network

    Østvand, Lene; Rypdal, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation which can be separated from the background spectral continuum of long-range persistent climate noise. The emphasis in this paper is on the latter notion, and a general scheme is presented for testing a multi-parameter trend model against a null hypothesis which models the observed climate record as an autocorrelated noise. The scheme is employed to the instrumental global sea-surface temperature record and the global land-temperature record. A trend model comprising a linear plus an oscillatory trend with period of approximately 60 yr, and the statistical significance of the trends, are tested against three different null models: first-order autoregressive process, fractional Gaussian noise, and fractional Brownian motion. The linear trend is significant in all cases, but the o...

  4. A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, S. F.

    2006-12-01

    How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result in much reduced values of climate sensitivity; for example, the neglect of important negative feedbacks. Allowing for uncertainties in the data and for imperfect models, there is only one valid conclusion from the failure of greenhouse models to explain the observations: The human contribution to global warming is still quite small, so that natural climate factors are dominant. This may also explain why the climate was cooling from 1940 to 1975 -- even as greenhouse-gas levels increased rapidly. An overall test for climate prediction may soon be possible by measuring the ongoing rise in sea level. According to my estimates, sea level should rise by 1.5 to 2.0 cm per decade (about the same rate as in past millennia); the U.N.-IPCC (4th Assessment Report) predicts 1.4 to 4.3 cm per decade. In the New York Review of Books (July 13, 2006), however, James Hansen suggests 20 feet or more per century -- equivalent to about 60 cm or more per decade.

  5. Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. T. J. de Laat; A. N. Maurellis

    2004-01-01

    Surface temperature trends during the last two decades show a significant increase which appears to be anthropogenic in origin. We investigate global temperature changes using surface as well as satellite measurements and show that lower tropospheric temperature trends for the period 1979–2001 are spatially correlated to anthropogenic surface CO2 emissions, which we use as a measure of industrialization. Furthermore, temperature

  6. Room Temperature Giant and Linear Magnetoresistance in Topological Insulator Bi2Te3 Nanosheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaolin; Du, Yi; Dou, Shixue; Zhang, Chao

    2012-06-01

    Topological insulators, a new class of condensed matter having bulk insulating states and gapless metallic surface states, have demonstrated fascinating quantum effects. However, the potential practical applications of the topological insulators are still under exploration worldwide. We demonstrate that nanosheets of a Bi2Te3 topological insulator several quintuple layers thick display giant and linear magnetoresistance. The giant and linear magnetoresistance achieved is as high as over 600% at room temperature, with a trend towards further increase at higher temperatures, as well as being weakly temperature-dependent and linear with the field, without any sign of saturation at measured fields up to 13 T. Furthermore, we observed a magnetic field induced gap below 10 K. The observation of giant and linear magnetoresistance paves the way for 3D topological insulators to be useful for practical applications in magnetoelectronic sensors such as disk reading heads, mechatronics, and other multifunctional electromagnetic applications.

  7. Trends and variability in East African rainfall and temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Ermert, Volker; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    The economy of East Africa is highly dependent on agriculture, leading to a strong vulnerability of local society to fluctuations in seasonal rainfall amounts, including extreme events. Hence, the knowledge about the evolution of seasonal rainfall under future climate conditions is crucial. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Regarding future climate projections, regional and global climate models partly disagree on the increase or decrease of East African rainfall. The specific aim of the present study is the acquirement of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite (rainfall) products (ARC2 and TRMM), and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of temperature and rainfall and their trends with the focus on most recent decades. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of pertinent large-scale modes of climate variability (Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Sea Surface Temperature of the Indian Ocean).

  8. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantua, N. J.; Johnstone, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5 to 1°C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with strongest trends observed from 1910-20 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900-2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural, internally-generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012, and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

  9. Detection of temporal trends of ?- and ?-chlordane in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Ekram Azim; Michelle Letchumanan; Azzam Abu Rayash; Yuko Shimoda; Satyendra P. Bhavsar; George B. Arhonditsis

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic linear modeling (DLM) analysis was performed to identify the long-term temporal trends of two toxic components of the technical chlordane pesticide, ?- and ?-chlordane, in skinless–boneless muscle tissues of a number of sport fish species in Lake Erie. Our analysis considers the fish length as a covariate of the chlordane concentrations. The ?-chlordane models for the coho salmon, channel

  10. Decadal-Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean SARAH T. GILLE

    E-print Network

    Gille, Sarah T.

    2007). This temperature rise is associated both with increased upper ocean temperatures (MeredithDecadal-Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean SARAH T. GILLE Scripps) ABSTRACT Long-term trends in the heat content of the Southern Hemisphere ocean are evaluated by comparing

  11. Subsurface temperature trend in response to exploitation of thermal water in Jiashi Hot Spring, northeastern Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wenfu; Chiang, Hsiehtang

    2015-04-01

    Temperature monitoring provides important information for sustainable management of a geothermal field. Previous studies show that decline of aquifer pressure is an obviously indicator of overexploitation for a thermal aquifer. However, many thermal water producing aquifers don't show pressure declining but with subtle temperature change. How to detect the temperature trend is an important topic for sustainable management of a geothermal field. In this study, we use borehole temperatures measured over a half year interval from 2011 to 2014 and Mann-Kendall method to determine the trends of subsurface temperature in Jiashi Hot Spring, northeastern Taiwan. Our results show that trends of subsurface temperature are related to the hydrogeology and flow field of groundwater. Flow directions of groundwater/thermal water are impacted by exploitation of thermal water of production wells, according to the depths and distribution. Repeatedly measured borehole temperature profiles provide important information to depict the trends of subsurface temperature change.

  12. Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-06-01

    Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii) forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.

  13. Linear polarization measurements at high temperatures in hypersaline geothermal brines

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. D. Cramer; P. B. Needham Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The Bureau of Mines conducted a series of in situ linear polarization measurements in high-temperature, high-pressure typesaline geothermal brines at the Bureau of Mines Geothermal Test Facility in the Imperial Valley of California. The measurements represented an evaluation of the linear polarization technique for obtaining instantaneous corrosion rates of materials of construction in flowing hypersaline hydrothermal fluids that rapidly form

  14. Recalibration and merging of SSU observations for stratospheric temperature trend studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Cheng-Zhi; Qian, Haifeng; Wang, Wenhui; Wang, Likun; Long, Craig

    2014-12-01

    Long-term observations from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) during 1979-2006 onboard NOAA historical polar orbiting satellites were recalibrated for climate change investigation. A two-point linear calibration equation, with cold space and an internal blackbody warm target as end-point references, was used to transfer SSU raw counts data into radiances. The warm target temperature was represented by measurements from the space side thermistor on the blackbody, and the cold space radiance was assumed to be zero. Space view corrections due to an electrical interference were applied. Intersatellite calibration was conducted simultaneously by applying calibration offsets determined from residual intersatellite biases. The recalibration reached an accuracy of 0.1-0.2 K for global means and thus is expected to improve the consistency in stratospheric temperature time series in climate reanalyses. The recalibrated SSU radiances were further adjusted to develop Version 2 of the NOAA stratospheric temperature time series. The effects being adjusted included those from changes in instrument cell pressure and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, viewing angle differences, and semidiurnal tides due to orbital drift. Intersatellite biases were carefully removed to ensure smooth transitions between satellite pairs. Differences from Version 1 included improved radiance calibration, improved adjusting schemes for diurnal drift and intersatellite biases, removal of time-varying cell pressure adjustment for NOAA-9 channel 1, and excluding NOAA-7 channel 2 in the time series. In addition to the final merged data set, intermediate synthetic time series corresponding to different adjustments were also created to quantify their impact on the final trend as well as its reliability and uncertainty. Excellent matching between satellite pairs, especially the 7 year overlaps between NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 during 1997-2004, in intermediate as well as the final time series provided strong evidence on the validity of adjustments and thus confidence on the resulting trends. The Version 2 global mean trends for 1979-2006 were -0.69 ± 0.18, -0.77 ± 0.15, and -0.85 ± 0.15 K/decade for SSU channels 1, 2, and 3, representing temperatures of middle stratosphere, upper stratosphere, and stratosphere-mesosphere, respectively. Among these, cooling of channel 2 was stronger and channel 3 weaker than those in UK Met Office (UKMO) data by about 1 K during the entire SSU period from 1979 to 2006. Finally, the average of the channel 1 and channel 3 anomalies in Version 2 was close to channel 2 anomalies to within 0.2 K for the entire 1979-2006 period with identical trends. This feature was found consistent with chemistry-climate model simulations.

  15. Differences between near-surface equivalent temperature and temperature trends for the Eastern United States. Equivalent temperature as an alternative measure of heat content

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davey, C.A.; Pielke, R.A., Sr.; Gallo, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    There is currently much attention being given to the observed increase in near-surface air temperatures during the last century. The proper investigation of heating trends, however, requires that we include surface heat content to monitor this aspect of the climate system. Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends. The microclimates evident at many surface observation sites highlight the influence of land surface characteristics on local surface heating trends. Temperature and equivalent temperature trend differences from 1982-1997 are examined for surface sites in the Eastern U.S. Overall trend differences at the surface indicate equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in the Eastern U.S. Seasonally, equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in winter and are relatively cooler in the fall. These patterns, however, vary widely from site to site, so local microclimate is very important. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

  17. An empirical technique for estimating near-surface air temperature trends in central Greenland from SSM/I brightness temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Shuman, C.A.; Alley, R.B.; Anandakrishnan, S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)] [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States); Stearns, C.R. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Space Science and Engineering Center] [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Space Science and Engineering Center

    1995-02-01

    In central Greenland, near-surface air temperatures can be estimated from long-term satellite passive microwave brightness temperatures supported by limited air-temperature data from automatic weather stations. In this region, brightness temperature depends on snow emissivity, which varies slowly over time, and on snow temperature, which varies more rapidly and is controlled by air temperature. The air temperature and brightness temperature data define an emissivity trend which can be modeled as an annual sinusoid. An air temperature trend can then be derived from the brightness temperature and modeled emissivity information. The estimated air temperature values represent an integrated near-surface value that defines the overall temperature trend at the Greenland Summit. The modeled emissivity cycle allows daily-average air temperatures to be estimated across significant gaps in weather station records, as well as quality control of their temperature data. The technique also generates annual trends of emissivity which can be used to evaluate radiative transfer models of microwave emissivity from dry firn.

  18. Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices at Shijiazhuang station, North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu; Zhang, Bingxiang; Zhang, Lei; Yue, Yanxia

    2015-02-01

    Based on daily temperature data from an urban station and four rural stations of Shijiazhuang area in Hebei Province, North China, we analyzed the trends of extreme temperature indices series of the urban station (Shijiazhuang station) and rural stations during 1962-2011 and the urbanization effect on the extreme temperature indices of the urban station. The results showed that the trends of annual extreme temperature indices of the urban station and the rural stations are significantly different in the recent 50 years. Urbanization effect on the long-term trends of hot days, cold days, frost days, diurnal temperature range (DTR), extreme maximum temperature, and extreme minimum temperature at the urban station were all statistically significant, reaching 1.10 days/10 years, -2.30 days/10 years, -2.55 days/10 years, -0.20 °C/10 years, 0.16 °C/10 years, and 0.70 °C/10 years, respectively, with the urbanization contributions to the overall trends reaching 100, 38.0, 42.2, 40.0, 94.1, and 47.0 %, respectively. The urbanization effect on trend of ice days was also significant, reaching -0.47 days/10 years. However, no significant urbanization effect on trends of minimum values of maximum temperature and maximum values of minimum temperature had been detected. The urbanization effects in the DTR and extreme minimum temperature series of Shijiazhuang station in wintertime were highly significant.

  19. Climate reconstructions of the NH mean temperature: Can underestimation of trends and variability be avoided?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christiansen, Bo

    2010-05-01

    Knowledge about the climate in the period before instrumental records are available is based on climate proxies obtained from tree-rings, sediments, ice-cores etc. Reconstructing the climate from such proxies is therefore necessary for studies of climate variability and for placing recent climate change into a longer term perspective. More than a decade ago pioneering attempts at using a multi-proxy dataset to reconstruct the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature resulted in the much published "hockey-stick"; a NH mean temperature that did not vary much before the rapid increase in the last century. Subsequent reconstructions show some differences but the overall "hockey-stick" structure seems to be a persistent feature However, there has been an increasing awareness of the fact that the applied reconstruction methods underestimate the low-frequency variability and trends. The recognition of the inadequacies of the reconstruction methods has to a large degree originated from pseudo-proxy studies, i.e., from long climate model experiments where artificial proxies have been generated and reconstructions based on these have been compared to the known model climate. It has also been found that reconstructions contain a large element of stochasticity which is revealed as broad distributions of skills. This means that it is very difficult to draw conclusions from a single or a few realizations. Climate reconstruction methods are based on variants of linear regression models relating temperatures and proxies. In this contribution we review some of the theory of linear regression and error-in-variables models to identify the sources of the underestimation of variability. Based on the gained insight we formulate a reconstruction method supposed to minimize this underestimation. The method is tested by applying it to an ensemble of surrogate temperature fields based on two climate simulations covering the last 500 and 1000 years. Compared to the RegEM TTLS method and a composite plus scale method - two methods recently used in the literature - the new method strongly improves the behavior regarding the low-frequency variability and trends. The potential importance in real world situations is demonstrated by implying the methods to a set of 14 decadal smoothed proxies. Here the new method shows much larger low-frequency variability and a much colder pre-industrial temperature level than the other reconstruction methods.

  20. Detection of temporal trends of ?- and ?-chlordane in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling.

    PubMed

    Ekram Azim, M; Letchumanan, Michelle; Abu Rayash, Azzam; Shimoda, Yuko; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Arhonditsis, George B

    2011-07-01

    Dynamic linear modeling (DLM) analysis was performed to identify the long-term temporal trends of two toxic components of the technical chlordane pesticide, ?- and ?-chlordane, in skinless-boneless muscle tissues of a number of sport fish species in Lake Erie. Our analysis considers the fish length as a covariate of the chlordane concentrations. The ?-chlordane models for the coho salmon, channel catfish, rainbow trout, and common carp showed continuously decreasing trends during the entire 30+ year survey period (1976-2007). The ?-chlordane models demonstrated similar trends for the coho salmon, channel catfish, and common carp. These fish species had higher levels of ?- and ?-chlordane in their muscle tissues. The ?- and ?-chlordane levels in freshwater drum, smallmouth bass, walleye, white bass, whitefish, and yellow perch decreased until the mid-1980s and hovered at levels around the detection limits for the remaining period. The pesticide biotransformation process, the reduction of contaminant emissions to the environment, the feeding habits of the different fish species, and the food-web alterations induced by the introduction of aquatic invasive species are some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the observed temporal trends in different fish species in Lake Erie. PMID:21536330

  1. Effects of pollution on temperature trends over mountains and cities in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper the global hourly surface observational climate data (NCDC) from 1980 to 2012 are used to investigate the effects of visibility on the different temperature trends in four mountain stations and their nearby city and plain stations. No doubt, the mountains, cities, and plains all show the significant warming trend during 1980-2012. However, except for Chengdu, the trends in all cities and plains are low than their nearby mountains. The climatological visibilities of cities are much lower than mountains and the negative trends of visibility in cities are larger than those in mountains. The hazy days (visibility < 10 km) in cities also show the larger positive trends than those in mountains. There are larger aerosol concentrates in low visibility situations and the cooling radiation effects of aerosol induce the lower temperature trends in cities than in mountains. The stronger warming in Chengdu is due to its larger hot island effects.

  2. On the Urban Heat Island Effect Dependence on Temperature Trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Inés Camilloni; Vicente Barros

    1997-01-01

    For U.S., Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (?Tu-r) and rural temperatures (Tr) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual variability of temperature is generally lower in urban environments than in

  3. Trend analysis of maximum, minimum, and average temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddik, Md. Abu Zafer; Rahman, Mursheda

    2014-05-01

    The present study is about the analysis of mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures carried out on annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales examining the data from 15 meteorological stations in Bangladesh for the period 1961-2008. Various spatial and statistical tools were used to display and analyze trends in temperature data. ArcGIS was used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using Thiessen polygon method. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine whether there is a positive or negative trend in data with their statistical significance. Sen's method was also used to determine the magnitude of the trends. The results reveal positive trends in annual mean and mean maximum temperatures with 95 % significance. Trend test reveals that the significant positive trend is found in June to November in case of mean maximum temperature, but according to the mean minimum temperature, the situation is different and a significant positive trend was found from November to February. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency toward warmer years, with significantly warmer summer periods and slightly colder winters. These warming patterns may have important impacts on energy consumption, water supply, human health, and natural environment in Bangladesh.

  4. Diurnal and seasonal cycles of trends of surface air temperature Konstantin Y. Vinnikov

    E-print Network

    Robock, Alan

    Diurnal and seasonal cycles of trends of surface air temperature Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Department developed to study seasonal cycles of climatic trends of expected values, variance, skewness, and other statistical moments of climatic variables. Here we apply that technique to analyze the diurnal and seasonal

  5. Oceanic Climate Change: Contributions of Heat Content, Temperature, and Salinity Trends to Global Warming

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christopher M. Mirabito

    The World Ocean is the largest component of the global climate system, and changes to its heat content, temperature, and salinity have an enormous impact on the current global warming trend. In this paper, these physical changes are discussed in detail, including potential sources of change and spatial and temporal variability, as the observed trends are influenced by location as

  6. Institute of Ecosystem Studies 1 ANALYSIS OF A WARMING TREND IN WATER TEMPERATURE IN THE

    E-print Network

    Lovett, Gary M.

    are subject to warming due to global climate change but few studies to date have considered trends or rates to global warming are likely to profoundly alter estuaries and affect their capability of maintainingInstitute of Ecosystem Studies 1 ANALYSIS OF A WARMING TREND IN WATER TEMPERATURE IN THE HUDSON

  7. Meson Properties at Finite Temperature in the Linear Sigma Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abu-Shady, M.

    2010-10-01

    The meson masses are investigated at finite temperature in the framework of the linear sigma model with an explicit chiral symmetry breaking term. The imaginary-time thermo-field dynamics and effective potential have been used for the calculation of the meson masses. We found that the behavior of the sigma and pion masses at finite temperature is in agreement with previous works. The critical temperature, the order of the phase transition, and the dependence of the meson fields on the temperature are discussed.

  8. Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled globalmean surface temperature

    E-print Network

    land surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) datasets [Brohan et al., 2006Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled globalmean surface temperature John C; accepted 6 July 2010; published 19 August 2010. [1] The observed evolution of the globalmean surface

  9. Accounting for the Effects of Volcanoes and ENSO in Comparisons of Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M.; Doutriaux, C.; Boyle, J. S.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Meehl, G. A.; Roeckner, E.; Sengupta, S.; Taylor, K. E.

    2001-05-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to remove the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from time series of globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures. Such work has largely ignored the possibility of non-zero correlation between volcanic signals and ENSO, a form of collinearity. Here we account for this collinearity using an iterative procedure. We remove the estimated volcano and ENSO signals from the raw global mean temperature data, and then calculate trends in the residuals. For observational temperature data, sensitivities to the choice of ENSO index and to uncertainties in key volcanic parameters lead to ranges of `residual' trends at the surface (0.214 to 0.245oC/decade), in the lower troposphere (2LT; 0.068 to 0.186oC/decade), and in the surface-minus-lower troposphere trend differential (0.060 to 0.144oC/decade). Residual surface and lower tropospheric trends are invariably larger than trends in the raw observational data. The residual surface-minus-2LT trend difference is generally smaller than in the raw data. These results suggest that volcanoes and ENSO significantly depressed both globally-averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures over 1979-1999, and exerted a larger cooling influence on the troposphere than on the surface. ENSO and volcanic forcing effects can hamper reliable assessment of the true correspondence between modeled and observed trends. In the second part of our study, we use our iterative approach to remove these effects from model data. After removal, the residual modeled and observed global-mean surface temperature trends are in good agreement. For the lower troposphere, the statistical significance of differences between modeled and observed residual trends depends on the experiment considered, the choice of ENSO index, and the volcanic signal decay time. Residual surface-minus-2LT trend differences are significantly smaller than in observations in 11 out of 12 cases considered. Finally, we consider results from recent model experiments with relatively complete estimates of natural and anthropogenic forcing. As for residual trends, we find close agreement between raw observed and simulated surface temperature trends. In 25 out of 30 cases, simulated lower tropospheric trends are not statistically different from observations. While simulated surface-minus-2LT trend differentials are significantly smaller than observed, they are positive (larger warming aloft than at the surface) in 5 of 30 cases, behavior qualitatively similar to observations.

  10. Asymmetric trends in seasonal temperature variability based on long instrumental records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiu, Michael; Ankerst, Donna; Menzel, Annette

    2015-04-01

    While the increase in global mean temperature over the past several decades is widely accepted, the issue as to whether and to what extent temperature variability is changing has not been solved yet. Temperature variability as the width of the temperature distribution measures the likelihood of temperature extremes. Those changes can amplify, nullify or reduce the effect a gradual warming has on extremes. Since climatic extremes exert large impacts on society and ecology, effects of altered temperature variability must be considered in tandem with effects of a gradually increasing temperature mean. Previous studies of trends in mean temperature and its associated variability have produced conflicting results. Here we investigate 10 selected long-term climate records of minimum, mean and maximum temperatures in Switzerland, Germany and the UK. In detail, we analysed trends in seasonal, annual and decadal measures of variability (standard deviation and various quantile ranges) as well as asymmetries in the trends of extreme vs mean temperatures via quantile regression. Besides accelerated mean warming during 1864-2012, we found higher trends for Tmax than for Tmin in the last 40 years (1973-2012), amounting to up to 0.08°C yr-1 in spring. In contrast, variability trends were not as uniform: significant changes occurred in opposing directions depending on the season, as well as when comparing 1864-2012 trends to those of 1973-2012. Often, variability changed asymmetrically and consequently, trends in high and low extremes differed. More patterns were detected for spatial and seasonal variation in these changes of variability.

  11. Multivariate, non-linear trend analysis of heterogeneous water quality monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lischeid, Gunnar; Kalettka, Thomas; Steidl, Jörg; Merz, Christoph; Lehr, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Comprehensive water quality monitoring is considered a necessary prerequisite for sound water resources management and a valuable source for science. In practice, however, use of large monitoring data sets is often limited due to heterogeneous data sources, spatially and temporally variable monitoring schemes, non-equidistant sampling, large natural variability, and, last but not least, by the sheer size of the data sets that makes identification of unexpected peculiarities a tedious task. As a consequence, any initiation of gradual long-term system shifts can hardly be detected, especially as long as it is restricted to a small fraction of sampling sites. In addition, trends might be limited to a rather small subset of sampling sites or to certain periods of time and might thus escape attention. Usually, numerous solutes are monitored in parallel, but trend analyses are performed for each solute separately. However, in water quality samples trends are hardly restricted to single solutes, but affect various solutes synchronously in a characteristic way. Thus performing joint multivariate trend analyses would not only save effort and time, but would yield more robust assessments of system shifts. We present a non-linear multivariate data visualization approach that allows a rapid assessment of non-linear, possibly local trends and unexpected behaviour in large water quality monitoring data sets. It consists of a combination of Self-Organizing Maps and Sammon's Mapping (SOM-SM). The approach was applied to a data set of 2900 water samples, each comprising 13 solutes, compiled from various monitoring programs in the Federal State of Brandenburg (Germany). In total, 128 stream water, groundwater and small pond sites had been sampled between 1994 and 2012 at different and irregular time intervals. The SOM-SM product is a graph where every sample is represented by a symbol. Location of the symbols in the graph is optimized such that the distance between any two symbols in the graph is proportional to the dissimilarity of the two respective water samples with respect to all 13 solutes. In our study, the non-linear 2D projection of the SOM-SM reflected 75% of the variance of the 13D data set. For further analyses the same graph was used again and again, where different colouring revealed different information. Thus the user rapidly became acquainted with the large, high dimensional data set. At a first glance outliers easily could be identified as well as clusters of samples with similar solute concentration. Different groups of samples were analysed for the degree of overlap. Multivariate trend analysis was performed that did not only account for increasing or decreasing concentration of single solutes but for systemic shifts of characteristic solute concentration patterns as well. Partly converging trends were found, that is, sampling sites becoming more similar to each other. In addition, long-term decreasing variance was found at some sites. For checking for significant differences between different time periods confidence intervals were included in the graph. We conclude that the SOM-SM proved to be a powerful and extremely helpful tool for analysis of this large, heterogeneous water quality data set.

  12. Sea surface temperature trends in Kuwait Bay, Arabian Gulf

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thamer B. Al-Rashidi; Hamdy I. El-Gamily; Carl L. Amos; Karim A. Rakha

    2009-01-01

    The waters of Kuwait Bay, northern Arabian Gulf, are well mixed by macrotidal, semi-diurnal tides. Sea surface temperature\\u000a (SST) is thus a good proxy of water mass temperature in the bay. The factors governing SST have been conveniently sub-divided\\u000a into global, regional and local drivers. This paper provides a study on long-term drivers of temperature change in the northern\\u000a Arabian

  13. TRENDS IN OPTICS AND PHOTONICS SERIES Vol.90 All-Optical 2R Regeneration Using a Non-Linear Vertical

    E-print Network

    Esener, Sadik C.

    the proper operating conditions, VCSOAs exhibit a highly non-linear optical transfer function[7]. The nonTRENDS IN OPTICS AND PHOTONICS SERIES Vol.90 78 All-Optical 2R Regeneration Using a Non-Linear Electrical and Computer Engineering Dept., University of California-San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA

  14. Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Doutriaux, C.; Boyle, J. S.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Meehl, G. A.; Roeckner, E.; Sengupta, S.; Taylor, K. E.

    2001-11-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to remove the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from time series of globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures. Such work has largely ignored the nonzero correlation between volcanic signals and ENSO. Here we account for this collinearity using an iterative procedure. We remove estimated volcano and ENSO signals from the observed global mean temperature data, and then calculate trends over 1979-1999 in the residuals. Residual trends are sensitive to the choice of index used for removing ENSO effects and to uncertainties in key volcanic parameters. Despite these sensitivities, residual surface and lower tropospheric (2LT) trends are almost always larger than trends in the raw observational data. After removal of volcano and ENSO effects, the differential warming between the surface and lower troposphere is generally reduced. These results suggest that the net effect of volcanoes and ENSO over 1979-1999 was to reduce globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures and cool the troposphere by more than the surface. ENSO and incomplete volcanic forcing effects can hamper reliable assessment of the true correspondence between modeled and observed trends. In the second part of our study, we remove these effects from model data and compare simulated and observed residual trends. Residual temperature trends are not significantly different at the surface. In the lower troposphere the statistical significance of trend differences depends on the experiment considered, the choice of ENSO index, and the volcanic signal decay time. The simulated difference between surface and tropospheric warming rates is significantly smaller than observed in 51 out of 54 cases considered. We also examine multiple realizations of model experiments with relatively complete estimates of natural and anthropogenic forcing. ENSO and volcanic effects are not removed from these integrations. As in the case of residual trends, model and observed raw trends are in good agreement at the surface but differ significantly in terms of the trend differential between the surface and lower troposphere. Observed and simulated lower tropospheric trends are not significantly different in 17 out of 24 cases. Our study highlights the large uncertainties inherent in removing volcano and ENSO effects from atmospheric temperature data. It shows that statistical removal of these effects improves the correspondence between modeled and observed temperature trends over the satellite era. Accounting for volcanoes and ENSO cannot fully explain the observed warming of the surface relative to the lower troposphere, or why this differential warming is not reproduced in the model simulations considered here.

  15. Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pielke, R.A., Sr.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    2002-01-01

    We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

  16. MOnthly TEmperature DAtabase of Spain 1951-2010: MOTEDAS (4) Trend in annual, seasonal and monthly amplitude temperature mean value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Brunetti, Michele; Cortesi, Nicola; Simolo, Claudia; Stepanek, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The initial results of MOTEDAS dataset (see MOTEDAS Poster 1, 2 and 3) are referred to mean seasonal trends (1951-2010) calculated by Mann-Kendal test. The most remarkable facts are as follows: Seasonal mean temperature have risen in the four season. The strongest increased in seasonal mean temperature is detected in summer. Also during spring and winter. In Autumn significant (p

  17. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Mañas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-12-01

    This is a call for contributions to a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical dedicated to integrability and nonlinear phenomena. The motivation behind this special issue is to summarize in a single comprehensive publication, the main aspects (past and present), latest developments, different viewpoints and the directions being followed in this multidisciplinary field. We hope that such a special issue could become a particularly valuable reference for the broad scientific community working in integrability and nonlinear phenomena. Editorial policy The Editorial Board has invited D Gómez-Ullate, S Lombardo, M Mañas, M Mazzocco, F Nijhoff and M Sommacal to serve as Guest Editors for the special issue. Their criteria for the acceptance of contributions are as follows. The subject of the paper should relate to the following list of subjects: Integrable systems (including quantum and discrete) and applications Dynamical systems: Hamiltonian systems and dynamics in the complex domain Nonlinear waves, soliton equations and applications Nonlinear ODEs including Painlevé equations and isomonodromic deformations Symmetries and perturbative methods in the classification of integrable PDEs Infinite dimensional Lie algebras and integrable systems Orthogonal Polynomials, Random Matrix Theory All contributions will be refereed and processed according to the usual procedure of the journal. Papers should report original and significant research that has not already been published. Guidelines for preparation of contributions The DEADLINE for contributed papers will be 28 February 2010. This deadline will allow the special issue to appear in October 2010. There is a nominal page limit of 15 printed pages per contribution (invited review papers can be longer). For papers exceeding this limit, the Guest Editors reserve the right to request a reduction in length. Further advice on publishing your work in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special Issue—Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  18. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Mañas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-11-01

    This is a call for contributions to a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical dedicated to integrability and nonlinear phenomena. The motivation behind this special issue is to summarize in a single comprehensive publication, the main aspects (past and present), latest developments, different viewpoints and the directions being followed in this multidisciplinary field. We hope that such a special issue could become a particularly valuable reference for the broad scientific community working in integrability and nonlinear phenomena. Editorial policy The Editorial Board has invited D Gómez-Ullate, S Lombardo, M Mañas, M Mazzocco, F Nijhoff and M Sommacal to serve as Guest Editors for the special issue. Their criteria for the acceptance of contributions are as follows. The subject of the paper should relate to the following list of subjects: Integrable systems (including quantum and discrete) and applications Dynamical systems: Hamiltonian systems and dynamics in the complex domain Nonlinear waves, soliton equations and applications Nonlinear ODEs including Painlevé equations and isomonodromic deformations Symmetries and perturbative methods in the classification of integrable PDEs Infinite dimensional Lie algebras and integrable systems Orthogonal Polynomials, Random Matrix Theory All contributions will be refereed and processed according to the usual procedure of the journal. Papers should report original and significant research that has not already been published. Guidelines for preparation of contributions The DEADLINE for contributed papers will be 28 February 2010. This deadline will allow the special issue to appear in October 2010. There is a nominal page limit of 15 printed pages per contribution (invited review papers can be longer). For papers exceeding this limit, the Guest Editors reserve the right to request a reduction in length. Further advice on publishing your work in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special Issue—Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  19. Detection of trends in days with extreme temperatures in Iran from 1961 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araghi, Alireza; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammad; Adamowski, Jan

    2015-05-01

    Human health and comfort, crop productivity, water resource availability, as well as other critical hydrological, climatological, and ecological parameters are heavily influenced by trends in daily temperature maxima and minima (T d max, T d min, respectively). Using Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall tests, trends in the number of days when T d max ? 30 °C or T d min ? 0 °C, over the period of 1961 to 2010, were examined for 30 synoptic meteorological stations in Iran. For 67 % of stations, days when T d min ? 0 °C showed a significant negative trend, while only 40 % of stations showed a significant positive trend in days when T d max ? 30 °C. The upward trend in T d max became significant between 1967 and 1975, according to the station, while the downward trend in T d min became significant between 1962 and 1974 for the same stations. Changes in precipitation type across most parts of the country show a high correlation with these temperature trends, especially with the negative trend in T d min. This suggests that future climatological and hydrological alterations within the country, along with ensuing climatic issues (e.g., change in precipitation, drought, etc.) will require a great deal more attention.

  20. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  1. Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Roger A. Pielke Sr; Christopher A. Davey; Dev Niyogi; Souleymane Fall; Jesse Steinweg-Woods; Ken Hubbard; Xiaomao Lin; Ming Cai; Young-Kwon Lim; Hong Li; John Nielsen-Gammon; Kevin Gallo; Rezaul Mahmood; Stuart Foster; Richard T. McNider; Peter Blanken

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents various unresolved issues in using surface temperature trends as a metric for assessing global and regional climate change. A series of examples ranging from errors caused by temperature measurements at a monitoring station to the undocumented biases in the regionally and globally averaged time series are provided. The issues are poorly understood or documented and relate to

  2. Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. Bücher; J. Dessens

    1991-01-01

    Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual

  3. Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kattel, Dambaru Ballab; Yao, Tandong

    2013-02-01

    Insufficient long-term in situ observations and complex topographic conditions pose major problems in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. Presented here is three decades (1980-2009) of data on annual maximum, minimum and average temperature trends from 13 mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas. The stations are located at elevations between 1304 and 2566 m above sea level and with varied topography. Spatial analyses of the average temperature trend show warming in most of the stations. The magnitude of warming is higher for maximum temperatures, while minimum temperatures exhibit larger variability such as positive, negative or no change. These results are consistent with patterns reported in some parts of the Indian subcontinent and Upper Indus Basin, but different from conditions on the Tibetan Plateau (China), where the warming of minimum temperatures is more prominent than that of the maximum temperatures. From the temporal variations, a dramatic increase in temperature is observed in the latest decade, particularly in the average and maximum temperatures. The results from the cumulative sum chart analyses suggest that the thermal regime shifted in 1997. The dramatic enhancement of average temperature in the last decade is strongly consistent with the result of contemporary studies of the surrounding regions, where warming is attributed to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. However, as in the western Himalayas and the Upper Indus Basin, the mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas show variability in temperature trends, particularly for the minimum temperature. This inhomogeneous trend is likely ascribed to the differences in topography and microclimatic regime of the observed stations.

  4. External Resource: Surface Air Temperature Trends of the Caribbean

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    1900-01-01

    This activity allows learners/students to use real satellite data to determine the changes in near-surface air temperature at different times of the year over the Caribbean Sea. Upon completion of the activity, learners should be able to state how Earth's

  5. The effect of wind on long-term summer water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Li-Feng; Onishi, Ryo; Takahashi, Keiko

    2015-06-01

    The effect of wind on summer water temperature trends in a semi-closed bay (Tokyo Bay, Japan) is examined through several numerical experiments using a high-resolution three-dimensional ocean model. The model is executed under no-wind and uniform southerly/northerly wind conditions, and monthly mean currents and temperature distributions and heat transport in Tokyo Bay for July are calculated. The model results show that wind has a significant effect on heat transport and temperature distribution in the bay. (1) When a southerly wind prevails northward cool water transport intensifies while southward warm water transport declines, thus decreasing the water temperature in the central bay area while increasing temperature at the bay head. (2) A northerly wind has an opposing effect and decreases the water temperature in coastal bay head area while increase the temperature along the southwest coast. The results also suggest that the trend of increasing southerly wind amplitude may have affected water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay from 1979 to 1997. The model results demonstrated that the an intensified southerly wind lowers water temperatures in most areas of the bay by enhancing upwelling and open ocean-water intrusion near the bay mouth while increases temperatures in the bottom layer of the bay head by suppressing southward warm water transport.

  6. Sulphate and desertification signals in Middle Eastern temperature trends

    SciTech Connect

    Nasrallah, H.A. [Public Authority for Applied Education and Training (Kuwait); Balling, R.C. Jr. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). Office of Climatology

    1994-12-31

    Analysis of Middle Eastern annual temperature anomalies over the past 40 years reveals statistically significant warming over this time period of 0.07 C per decade. The warming is most pronounced over the spring season and least apparent in the winter season. Spatial analysis reveals a positive relationship between Middle Eastern warming and the degree of human-induced desertification and a negative relationship between local warming and the atmospheric concentration of sulphate.

  7. Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleisner, Hans; Thejll, Peter; Christiansen, Bo; Nielsen, Johannes K.

    2015-04-01

    Over the last 15 years, global mean surface temperatures exhibit only weak trends. Recent studies have attempted to attribute this so called temperature hiatus to several causes, amongst them incomplete sampling of the rapidly warming Arctic region. We here examine zonal mean temperature trends in satellite-based tropospheric data sets (MSU/AMSU and GNSS Radio Occultation) and in global surface temperatures (HadCRUT4). Omission of successively larger polar regions from the global-mean temperature calculations, in both tropospheric and surface data sets, shows that data gaps at high latitudes cannot explain the observed differences between the hiatus and the pre-hiatus period. Instead, the dominating causes of the global temperature hiatus are found at low latitudes. The combined use of several independent data sets, representing completely different measurement techniques and sampling characteristics, strengthens the conclusions.

  8. Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

    2015-05-01

    The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers blooming sequentially one after another. This enables local governments to earn substantial sightseeing revenues by hosting festivals featuring spring flowers. Furthermore, beekeepers move from the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula all the way northward in a quest to secure spring flowers as nectar sources for a sustained period of time. However, areal differences in flowering dates of flower species are narrowing, which has economic consequences. Analysis of data on flowering dates of forsythia ( Forsythia koreana) and cherry blossom ( Prunus serrulata), two typical spring flower species, as observed for the past 60 years at six weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicated that the difference between the flowering date of forsythia, the earliest blooming flower in spring, and cherry blossom, which flowers later than forsythia, was 14 days on average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, compared with 11 days for the period 1981-2010. In 2014, the gap narrowed further to 7 days, making it possible in some locations to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time. Synchronized flowering of these two flower species is due to acceleration of flowering due to an abnormally high spring temperature, and this was more pronounced in the later-blooming cherry blossom than forsythia. While cherry blossom flowering dates across the nation ranged from March 31 to April 19 (an areal difference of 20 days) for the 1951-1980 normal year, the difference ranged from March 29 to April 12 (an areal difference of 16 days) for the 1981-2010 normal year, and in 2014, the flowering dates spanned March 25 and March 30 (an areal difference of 6 days). In the case of forsythia, the gap was narrower than in cherry blossoms. Climate change in the Korean Peninsula, reflected by rapid temperature hikes in late spring in contrast to a slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release, likely brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossom. We derived a thermal time-based flowering model from this analysis and used it to predict the flowering dates of forsythia and cherry blossom in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species, showing a feasibility of prediction under the changing climate.

  9. MY NASA DATA: Surface Air Temperature Trends of the Caribbean

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2012-08-03

    In this lesson, students will use real satellite data to determine the changes in near-surface air temperature over the Caribbean Sea at different times of the year. Step-by-step instructions for use of the MY NASA DATA Live Access Server (LAS) guide students through selecting a data set, importing the data into a spreadsheet, creating graphs, and analyzing data plots. The lesson provides detailed procedures, related links and sample graphs, follow-up questions, extensions, and teacher notes. Designed for student use, MY NASA DATA LAS samples micro datasets from large scientific data archives, and provides structured investigations engaging students in exploration of real data to answer real world questions.

  10. Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Atsuhiro Muto; Ted A. Scambos; Konrad Steffen; Andrew G. Slater; Gary D. Clow

    2011-01-01

    Used borehole paleothermometry in a data-sparse part of East AntarcticaWe found warming near the ice divide and cooling to no change off of the divideThe pattern may be related to mid-tropospheric temperature trends

  11. Temperature variability and trend estimates at tropopause and UT-LS over a subtropical site: Reunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bègue, N.; Bencherif, H.; Sivakumar, V.; Kirgis, G.; Mzé, N.; Leclair de Bellevue, J.

    2010-04-01

    This paper mainly focuses on the trends and variability of the tropopause and UT-LS temperature using radiosonde observations carried out over 16 years (January 1993 to December 2008) from a southern subtropical site, Reunion Island (20.8° S, 55.5° E), using a linear-regression fitting model. Two kinds of tropopause definitions, namely, cold point tropopause (CPT) and lapse rate tropopause (LRT) are used. In the purpose to characterize and quantify the relationship between the regional oceanic forcing and temperature at tropopause and UT-LS, we take into account the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) for the estimation of temperature trends. Results show that the main component is the Annual Oscillation (AO), particularly at tropopause (CPT, LRT) and in the lower stratosphere (LS) where more than 26% of the variability of temperature can be explained by AO. As a result, the influence of IOD on the variability of the temperature is at highest ratio at CPT and LS, with respectively 12.3% and 13.1%. The results show a low correlation between IOD and the temperature anomalies at tropopause (LRT, CPT) and UT-LS, in the range of 0.08-0.15, with the maximum of correlation at CPT (0.15). In addition, trend estimates at CPT and in the LS suggests that the IOD forcing contributes enhancing the rate of cooling of about 0.1 K per decade. Indeed a trend analysis reveals a cooling of about 0.90±0.40 K per decade at LS and a cooling trend of about 0.36±0.48 K per decade at CPT. The cooling trend at LS is found to be in good agreement with the others studies. These results support the assumption that the Indian Ocean may have a slight impact on temperature variability and on temperature change at CPT and in the LS over Reunion.

  12. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Horton, Daniel E; Johnson, Nathaniel C; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2015-06-25

    Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns. PMID:26108856

  13. Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends

    E-print Network

    Niyogi, Dev

    Change Science Program (CCSP) report, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/public- review-draft/sap1-1prd-all.pdf; hereinafter referred to as CCSP report, 2006). The CCSP

  14. A statistical interpretation of surface ocean temperature trends during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    E-print Network

    Haran, Murali

    ! "! A statistical interpretation of surface ocean temperature trends during the Paleocene 90 Myr (Tjalsma and Lohmann, 1983; Thomas, 1990). Organisms inhabiting the sea surface, including of single-specimen surface-dwelling foraminifera at Southern Ocean ODP Site 690. We use Monte Carlo samples

  15. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ? 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  16. Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

    2015-06-01

    This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

  17. Linear magnetoelectricity at room temperature in perovskite artificial superlattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Saurabh; Das, Hena; Fennie, Craig J.

    2014-03-01

    The primary challenge in the field of multiferroics remains to identify materials that have a functional coupling between an electrical polarization and a magnetization, i.e., a magnetoelectric effect, at room temperature. Such materials may, for example, facilitate technologically important devices based on the electric field control of magnetism. Atomic scale heterostructures of transition metal ABO3 perovskites are an ideal platform to realize designer properties and functionalities that don't exist in the bulk phase diagrams of the constituent materials. Here we take advantage of a recent direction in functional perovskites (where the combination of heterointerfaces with rotations/tilts of the BO6 octahedra facilitate ferroelectric order) to create a new class of room temperature multiferroics in which ferroelectricity induces linear magnetoelectricity. We consider heterostructures of rare-earth orthoferrites of Pnma perovskites, (LnFeO3)1/(Ln'FeO3)1. Computed values of linear ME coefficients are found to be comparable to the prototype ME compound Cr2O3. Finally, we discuss the role of the Ln f-states in the ME response.

  18. Finite temperature orbital and spin magnetism of small Fe linear chains.

    PubMed

    Garibay-Alonso, R; Guillén-Escamilla, I; Reyes-Reyes, M; López-Sandoval, R

    2015-07-22

    The finite temperature spin and orbital magnetism of [Formula: see text] FeN linear chains is theoretically studied in the framework of a spin fluctuation theory based on a realistic d-band model Hamiltonian, which includes the spin-orbit coupling interaction in a non-perturbative way. Spin and orbital magnetic moments are calculated as a function of the temperature by using an exchange Monte Carlo method that takes into account in a full way the short-range magnetic order. The finite temperature anisotropy effects on the spin and orbital cluster moment values are analysed by considering magnetization directions perpendicular to and along the chain axis. The temperature dependence of the orbital cluster moment follows a general trend similar to that of the spin one and shows clear anisotropy effects at low and intermediate temperatures, before total thermal disorder appears. Interesting anisotropy effects driven by thermal spin fluctuations are also observed for the spin results in most of the systems. PMID:26102537

  19. Finite temperature orbital and spin magnetism of small Fe linear chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garibay-Alonso, R.; Guillén-Escamilla, I.; Reyes-Reyes, M.; López-Sandoval, R.

    2015-07-01

    The finite temperature spin and orbital magnetism of N?slant 10 FeN linear chains is theoretically studied in the framework of a spin fluctuation theory based on a realistic d-band model Hamiltonian, which includes the spin–orbit coupling interaction in a non-perturbative way. Spin and orbital magnetic moments are calculated as a function of the temperature by using an exchange Monte Carlo method that takes into account in a full way the short-range magnetic order. The finite temperature anisotropy effects on the spin and orbital cluster moment values are analysed by considering magnetization directions perpendicular to and along the chain axis. The temperature dependence of the orbital cluster moment follows a general trend similar to that of the spin one and shows clear anisotropy effects at low and intermediate temperatures, before total thermal disorder appears. Interesting anisotropy effects driven by thermal spin fluctuations are also observed for the spin results in most of the systems.

  20. The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

  1. Investigation of the low-temperature performance of asphalt mixtures via fatigue and linear contraction and creep test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Conghui; Wu, Shaopeng; Li, Bo; Wang, Jingang

    2008-11-01

    Three types of asphalt mixtures, including asphalt concrete (AC), stone mastic asphalt (SMA) and porous asphalt (PA) with a 13mm gradation, are chosen to study the fatigue behavior, linear contraction and creep performance of them. The analysis of the experimental results is summarized as follows. The asphalt mixture exhibits longer fatigue life at low temperature than that at high temperature. But the fatigue life is more sensitive to the loading stress at low temperature. At the same time, the fatigue lives of all the three mixture gradations show decreasing trends with the increasing stress, which implies that restraining over-loading of highways is quite important. The linear contractive quotiety shows great distinction with the types of asphalt mixture gradations and temperature span, which indicates that modified asphalt and lower air voids can benefit to the contractive properties of asphalt mixtures at low temperature. Additionally, the linear contractive quotiety decreases with the falling of the temperature, meanwhile the distinctions between different temperature spans tend to slower. The creep test indicates that lower air voids and larger asphalt content are beneficial to the low temperature performance of asphalt.

  2. Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, T.R.

    2006-01-01

    Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Linear trends in salinity for the World Ocean, 19551998 Timothy P. Boyer, S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, R. A. Locarnini, and H. E. Garcia

    E-print Network

    Linear trends in salinity for the World Ocean, 1955­­1998 Timothy P. Boyer, S. Levitus, J. I; published 6 January 2005. [1] Quality controlled oceanographic profile salinity measurements from the World Ocean Database 2001 (WOD01) were used to calculate linear trends of zonally averaged salinity anomalies

  4. Combined land/sea surface-air-temperature trends, 1949-1972

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, R.S.

    1982-04-01

    A major deficiency in most previous studies of fluctuations in the earth's climate based on air temperature records has been the dearth of data from oceanic areas and the Southern Hemisphere. This study analyzes a unique collection of ship-based observations of surface air temperature assembled by the UK Meteorological Office in parallel with the station-based dataset developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research from the publications World Weather Records and Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Based on this much more geographically comprehensive database, it is concluded that, during the 24-year period 1949 to 1972, no statistically significant warming or cooling trends were evident in the time series of globally averaged surface air temperature measurements. However, temperature trends did vary latitudinally, with significant cooling in northern extra-tropical latitudes, no trend in equatorial latitudes, and significant but not homogeneous warming in southern extra-tropical latitudes. Time series of air temperatures over land and sea exhibited qualitatively similar behavior over the period 1949 to 1972, indicative of both the comparable quality of the two datasets and the probable lack of significant widespread bias in the land-based measurements due to urban development. The results of this study underscore the need for dense and geographically comprehensive measurements from both land and ocean areas and from both hemispheres in analyzing the global behavior of the earth's climate.

  5. Studying the force characteristics of a high temperature superconducting linear synchronous motor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Luhai; Jin, Jianxun

    2011-08-01

    A single-sided high temperature superconducting (HTS) linear synchronous motor (HTSLSM) with an HTS bulk magnet array as its secondary has been developed. A field-cooled magnetization system has also been developed to obtain the magnet array with alternate magnetic poles. In order to identify the performance and force characteristics of the HTSLSM, an equivalent 3D finite element analysis (FEA) model has been built up to analyze its field distributions and cogging force characteristics, and an experimental system has been constructed to measure its thrust and normal force characteristics. The traits of the thrust and the normal force have been extracted by comprehensive experiments, including the trends versus different exciting currents, different air gap lengths and variable magnetic poles. The analysis and experimental results are fundamental to the electromagnetic optimum design and control scheme evaluation for the HTSLSM.

  6. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature parameters over Sutlej river basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Dharmaveer; Glupta, R. D.; Jain, Sanjay K.

    2015-02-01

    The annual and seasonal trend analysis of different surface temperature parameters (average, maximum, minimum and diurnal temperature range) has been done for historical (1971-2005) and future periods (2011-2099) in the middle catchment of Sutlej river basin, India. The future time series of temperature data has been generated through statistical downscaling from large scale predictors of CGCM3 and HadCM3 models under A2 scenario. Modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) chart have been used for detecting trend and sequential shift in time series of temperature parameters. The results of annual trend analysis for period of 1971-2005 show increasing as well as decreasing trends in average ( T Mean), maximum ( T Max), minimum ( T Min) temperature and increasing trends in Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) at different stations. But the annual trend analysis of downscaled data has revealed statistically significant (95% confidence level) rising trends in T Mean, T Max, T Min and falling trend in DTR for the period 2011-2099. The decreasing trend in DTR is due to higher rate of increase in T Min compared to T Max.

  7. Non-linear saturation mechanism of electron temperature gradient modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokluoglu, E. K.; Sokolov, V.; Sen, A. K.

    2012-10-01

    The electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode is a very plausible candidate to explain the large electron particle transport and thermal conduction. Production and identification of slab ETG modes and measurement electron transport have been already reported [X. Wei, V. Sokolov, and A. K. Sen, Phys. Plasmas 17, 042108 (2010); V. Sokolov and A. K. Sen, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2011)]. Now, we develop a theoretical model of non-linear saturation mechanism of ETG mode based on the three wave coupling of an unstable high frequency ETG mode with a damped ETG radial harmonic and a damped ion acoustic (IA) mode. Bicoherence analysis of Columbia linear machine (CLM) data show coupling between ETG modes (˜2.4 MHz) and a low frequency mode (˜50 kHz). The large damping drive of the ETG radial harmonic accompanied by the smaller but finite damping of the IA mode presents an energy sink for the unstable ETG mode, thus causing saturation. This model predicts a saturation level of ˜10% and agrees with the observed levels of ETG modes in the CLM.

  8. Non-linear saturation mechanism of electron temperature gradient modes

    SciTech Connect

    Tokluoglu, E. K.; Sokolov, V.; Sen, A. K. [Plasma Physics Laboratory, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States)

    2012-10-15

    The electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode is a very plausible candidate to explain the large electron particle transport and thermal conduction. Production and identification of slab ETG modes and measurement electron transport have been already reported [X. Wei, V. Sokolov, and A. K. Sen, Phys. Plasmas 17, 042108 (2010); V. Sokolov and A. K. Sen, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2011)]. Now, we develop a theoretical model of non-linear saturation mechanism of ETG mode based on the three wave coupling of an unstable high frequency ETG mode with a damped ETG radial harmonic and a damped ion acoustic (IA) mode. Bicoherence analysis of Columbia linear machine (CLM) data show coupling between ETG modes ({approx}2.4 MHz) and a low frequency mode ({approx}50 kHz). The large damping drive of the ETG radial harmonic accompanied by the smaller but finite damping of the IA mode presents an energy sink for the unstable ETG mode, thus causing saturation. This model predicts a saturation level of {approx}10% and agrees with the observed levels of ETG modes in the CLM.

  9. A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2007-01-01

    Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

  10. Overall false positive rates in tests for linear trend in tumor incidence in animal carcinogenicity studies of new drugs

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Karl K. Lin; Mohammad A. Rahman

    1998-01-01

    Based on results of simulation and empirical studies conducted within the divisions of biometrics, center for drug evaluation and research, food and drug administration, and in collaboration with the national toxicology program, the center has recently changed the significance levels for testing positive linear trend in incidence rate for common and rare tumors, respectively, from 0.01 and 0.05 to 0.005

  11. Air temperature trends related to changes in atmospheric circulation in the wider area of Greece

    Microsoft Academic Search

    P. T. Nastos; C. M. Philandras; D. Founda; C. S. Zerefos

    2011-01-01

    Surface air temperature trends in the wider region of Greece during the period 1951–2007, related to atmospheric circulation, are examined in this work. A network of 31 meteorological stations in the Hellenic area and the Asia Minor coasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction\\/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP\\/NCAR) reanalysis datasets were used for this purpose. The NCEP\\/NCAR reanalysis datasets

  12. Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillations in global sea-surface temperatures

    Microsoft Academic Search

    V. Moron; R. Vautard; M. Ghil

    1998-01-01

    This study aims at a global description of climatic phenomena that exhibit some regularity during the twentieth century.\\u000a Multi-channel singular spectrum analysis is used to extract long-term trends and quasi-regular oscillations of global sea-surface\\u000a temperature (SST) fields since 1901. Regional analyses are also performed on the Pacific, (Northern and Southern) Atlantic,\\u000a and Indian Ocean basins. The strongest climatic signal is

  13. Ratios of Record High to Record Low Temperatures in Europe Show an Accelerating Trend Since 2000 Despite a Slowdown in Mean Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beniston, M.

    2014-12-01

    The present study has examined the behavior of extreme high and low temperatures in Euirope since the mid-20th century, in terms of the ratio of number of days per year with record Tmax and record Tmin. The investigations have shown that there has been a clear and massive increase in the number of high Tmax: low Tmin ratios in the most recent decade of the 1951-2013 temperature record for 30 selected observation stations in Europe. This sharp increase is seen to occur despite an apparent hiatus - or at least a reduction in the rate of warming - since the early 2000s, as observed not only in Europe but on a hemispheric basis too. The «explosion» of record high:record low temperature ratios since 2000, despite relatively small increases in mean temperatures in the last 10-15 years of the observational record, can be explained by a non-linear (quadratic) relation between mean temperatures and the Tmax:Tmin record ratios. It is suggested here that the increases are probably a consequence of increasing dryness during the summer in the Mediterranean region (where today there are on average 30 more dry days than in the 1950s), and a reduction in the cold season conducive to snow days in Arctic summers and Northern European springs (with up to 40 days less freezing days than 60 years previously). Both effects can serve to amplify positive temperature feedbacks in the lower atmosphere that result in strong increases in the number of Tmax record high temperatures and correspondingly strong reductions in the number of Tmin record low temperatures.

  14. Nonlinear trends of net primary production of plants, surface temperature and water index in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Krai by satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larko, Aleksandr; Shevyrnogov, Anatoly

    There are rather many studies that investigate temporal variations in productivity of boreal forests using remote sensing data. Most of those studies, however, analyzed rather short time series: either for the time period between 1982 and 2000 or for the time period since 2000 till now (after the new satellite systems were launched). Moreover, even for longer periods of time (1982-2008), researchers usually considered linear trends, which do not objectively represent actual changes. Most of the studies estimated area-averaged trends rather than spatial distribution of the dynamics of NPP or another parameter. Verification of the averaged results using ground-based data often leads to ambiguous conclusions. Thus, linear models are not suitable for analyzing time series in complex, spatially distributed systems. In this study, we analyzed spatial distribution of nonlinear trends of net primary production of plants for the area in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Krai (in the Yenisei River basin) between 2000 and 2012. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution of nonlinear trends of land surface temperature and water index (LSWI). NPP, temperature and water index values were calculated using the data from the MODIS scanner aboard the Terra satellite. Method used to decompose the time series was the nonlinear Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess (STL). STL is a filtering procedure for decomposing a seasonal time series into seasonal, trend, and remainder (noise) components. STL consists of a sequence of applications of the Loess smoother. Spatial distribution of NPP trends in the study area showed differences in NPP variations for different plant communities growing in this area for the time period between 2000 and 2013. Decomposition of NPP time series revealed regions where NPP decreased increased or was stable over this period of time. Correlation analysis of trends NPP, temperature and water index, revealed regions with strong direct and inverse temperature and humidity dependence in the vegetation grow. This approach also allows defining zones of anthropogenic impact and dynamics of reclaimed after natural and anthropogenic influences. This work was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project ? 13-06-00060

  15. High temperature garnet growth in New England: regional temperature-time trends revealed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, N.; Ostwald, C.; Chu, X.; Baxter, E. F.; Ague, J. J.; Eckert, J. O.

    2013-12-01

    A series of localized ultrahigh-temperature (UHT)/high-temperature (HT) granulite facies regions have been identified within the regional amphibolite facies metamorphic zone of the Central Maine Terrane stretching from north-central New Hampshire, through central Massachusetts, and into northeastern Connecticut. Here, we aim to constrain the age and peak temperature of metamorphism at three localities within this region: Bristol, NH, Phillipston, MA and Willington, CT. Garnet-forming reactions are linked directly to peak metamorphic temperatures through thermodynamic modeling and/or Zr-in-rutile thermometry. Precise garnet geochronology allows us to identify the timing of these peak temperatures, as well as the duration of garnet growth. Geochronologic and thermodynamic work was done on 12 samples collected throughout a ~5 km2 metamorphic 'hotspot' previously identified in Bristol, NH (Chamberlain and Rumble, 1988; Journal of Petrology). The highest temperature assemblage within this hotspot is characterized by the presence of garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + cordierite and reached temperatures >820?C. The lowest temperature periphery of the hotspot is characterized by sillimanite + muscovite + K-feldspar + minor garnet and reached a maximum temperature of 650?C. Bulk garnet ages from samples within the hotspot range significantly from at least 400.0 × 2.5 Ma to 352.7 × 1.8 Ma with the youngest ages associated with the lower temperature samples. This collection of ages indicates a prolonged period (~50 Ma) of >650?C temperatures interspersed by period(s) of garnet growth. Zoned garnet geochronology will help reveal whether garnet growth and related heating was continuous or episodic. Further south, in Phillipston, MA, zoned garnet geochronology performed on a 2.5 cm diameter garnet porphyroblast indicates garnet growth spanning 389 - 363 Ma, reaching peak temperatures at the end of that time span of 920-940?C, followed by a younger event recorded in smaller 1-3mm garnet crystals at 351 Ma (which may also reflect resetting of the earlier event), reaching similar temperatures of 920-960?C. These temperatures were obtained by Zr-in-rutile thermometry performed on rutile inclusions within the garnet. Even farther south, in the UHT zone around Willington, CT, temperatures of at least 1000?C were determined using Zr-in-rutile thermometry on rutile inclusions in garnet and reintegration of ternary feldspar compositions (Ague et al., 2013; Geology). The garnet age for a representative UHT sample from this site is 340.3 × 1.7 Ma. The geochronologic data presented here indicates a prolonged period of UHT/HT garnet growth within the Central Maine Terrane, beginning at ~400 Ma in Bristol, NH and ending at ~340 Ma in Willington, CT. Peak temperatures are >820?C in NH, >950?C in MA, and ~1000?C in CT, resulting in a regional pattern of increasing temperature with decreasing age from north to south across this 250 km long region.

  16. New Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature Re-Analysis (1982-2012): development, assessment and trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisano, Andrea; Nardelli, Bruno B.; Tronconi, Cristina; Santoleri, Rosalia; Rinaldi, Eleonora

    2015-04-01

    The long time series of reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data from 1982 to 2012 has been used to provide daily gap-free sea surface temperature (SST) maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution (4 km x 4 km spatial resolution). The interpolation of PFV52 data to L4 has been carried out by adapting CNR-ISAC-GOS near-real-time (NRT) SST processing chain (Buongiorno Nardelli et al., 2013) to the PFV52 dataset, and choosing a new covariance model. This new time series extend and improve previous reprocessed L4 Mediterranean SST datasets based on 1985-2005 Pathfinder V4 (Marullo et al., 2007) and largely used by Mediterranean science community. This new Mediterranean reprocessed time series has been validated using all the available in situ observations (drifter, CTD, XBT, ARGO floats) in order to quantify the product accuracy and to exclude any possibility of spurious trends. The time series analysis reveals a warming Mediterranean SST in the last 30 years with a mean SST trend of the order of 0.05° K/yr. The pattern of the SST trend reveals a strong eastward increasing surface warming with a maximum SST trend found south of Island of Crete.

  17. Uncertainties Evaluation of Temperature Trends from Multiple Radiosondes, Microwave Sounding Units and Reanalyses Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, A. M.; Xu, J.

    2010-12-01

    Based on the ensemble spread, a methodology of measuring uncertainty in weather forecasts, the temperature trend and spread have been estimated using five radiosonde data sets, three Microwave Sounding Units (MSU: STAR, RSS and UAH) retrieved productions and seven reanalysis products beginning in 1979. The results show that the magnitude of warming or cooling depends on the data sources, atmospheric heights, and geophysical latitudes. For global mean temperature, the trend is approximately 0.2 K/decade in the troposphere and -0.8 K/decade in the stratosphere. The spread increases significantly with atmospheric height from approximately 0.1 K/decade at 850hPa to 0.8 K/decade at 30hPa. The spread in the reanalyses data sets is much larger than in the radiosondes and MSU in the stratosphere. In contrast, the spread in the reanalyses, MSU and radiosondes data sets is very small and shows the trend in better agreement with each other in the troposphere.

  18. Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Cowan, Tim; Cai, Wenju; Purich, Ariaan; Rotstayn, Leon; England, Matthew H.

    2013-01-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends. PMID:23873281

  19. Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keim, Barry D.; Wilson, Adam M.; Wake, Cameron P.; Huntington, Thomas G.

    2003-04-01

    The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC's U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal- to century-scale climate change studies.

  20. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Auroop R [ORNL; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K [ORNL; Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Branstetter, Marcia L [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Singh, Nagendra [ORNL; Drake, John B [ORNL; Buja, Lawrence [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

  1. Linear changes/trends of stratospheric BRO as seen by SCIAMACHY limb for the decade 2002-12

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebhardt, Claus; Rozanov, Alexei; Hommel, René; Weber, Mark; Burrows, John P.; Hendrick, François; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Stratospheric bromine is of high relevance to ozone chemistry. As a consequence of measures undertaken, the stratospheric bromine load is expected to decline slowly. Indeed, evidence for the onset of a turnaround of stratospheric bromine in the late 1990s has been reported in WMO(2010) (and references therein). Bromine monoxide (BRO) is one radical species which is actively involved into catalytic ozone depletion. Still, vertically resolved BRO measurements are rather sparse. The satellite instrument SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT (2002-12) has gathered BRO data for the lower to middle stratosphere (~15-30 km) at global coverage. In its limb viewing geometry, its vertical resolution is typically of around 3-4 km. Related BRO time series cover the period 08/2002-04/2012, i.e. practically one decade. Underlying longterm changes of BRO are statistically described by linear changes/trends. In our presentation, we show BRO time series and trends from SCIAMACHY limb as a function of latitude and altitude. Negative BRO trends are seen by SCIAMACHY at midlatitudes as well as in the tropics. Some trend comparison is performed between SCIAMACHY and groundbased measurements from the NDACC station of Harestua (60.2°N).

  2. Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

  3. Recent temperature variability and trends in the coastal areas of the western Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, Ketil; Nordli, Øyvind; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wyszynski, Przemyslaw

    2015-04-01

    The Svalbard Archipelago (74°-81°N, 10°-35°E) has experienced the greatest temperature increase in Europe during the latest three decades. Svalbard is also noted for its wide year-to-year variation in monthly temperatures and weather. The project "Arctic climate system study of ocean, sea ice and glaciers interactions in Svalbard area" (AWAKE-2) is a continuation and extension of the Polish-Norwegian AWAKE project (2009-2011). The aim of the AWAKE-2 is to understand the interactions between the main components of the climate system in the Svalbard area to identify mechanisms of interannual climate variability and long-term trends. The main hypothesis is that the Atlantic Water inflows over the Svalbard shelf and into the fjords have become more frequent during the last decades due to changes in the ocean and atmosphere. The integrated effect of these events results in new regimes and changes in atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and glaciers in Svalbard. Furthermore, changes in the cryosphere create feedback effects in ocean and atmosphere. One of the objectives in the AWAKE-2 project is to study atmospheric climate variability and trends in the coastal areas of the western Svalbard. In this study we analyse the recent temperature increase and temperature variability along the western coastal areas of Svalbard and compare this to the long-term variability based on historical data. Especially focus is given to the spatial and temporal air temperature gradients along western Svalbard. Changes in possible key factors controlling the recent large temperature anomalies are discussed.

  4. Temperature variability and trends in the UT-LS over a subtropical site: Reunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bègue, N.; Bencherif, H.; Sivakumar, V.; Kirgis, G.; Mze, N.; Leclair de Bellevue, J.

    2010-09-01

    This paper mainly focuses on the trends and variability of the UT-LS temperature using radiosonde observations carried out over 16 years (January 1993 to December 2008) from a southern subtropical site, Reunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E), using a linear-regression fitting model. Two kinds of tropopause definitions, namely, cold point tropopause (CPT) and lapse rate tropopause (LRT) are used. In order to characterize and quantify the relationship between regional oceanic forcing and temperature at UT-LS, we took into account the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) for the estimation of temperature trends. Results show that the main component is the Annual Cycle (AC), particularly at tropopause (CPT, LRT) and in the lower stratosphere (LS) where more than 26.0±2.4% of temperature variability can be explained by AC. The influence of IOD on the variability of the temperature is at highest ratio at CPT and LS, with respectively 12.3±7.3% and 13.1±5.9%. The correlations between IOD and temperature anomalies at UT-LS are barely significant, which are found to be in close agreement with the results obtained by Rosenlof et al. (2008) over the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The temperature trend in the LS reveals a cooling of about -0.90±0.40 K per decade. The cooling trend at LS is found to be in close agreement with the others studies. Trend estimates in the LS suggest that IOD forcing contributes to increasing cooling by about 0.16±0.05 K per decade. Past works have shown that the additional carbon dioxide increase has a minor effect in the LS, and suggested that other effects than ozone and carbon dioxide changes have to be considered, in order to explain the observed temperature changes in the LS. From this study, we can suggest that the SST changes can be considered also, in addition to effects due to ozone and carbon dioxide changes, in order to explain the observed temperature changes in the LS. As a consequence, our results support the assumption that the Indian Ocean may have a slight impact on temperature variability and on temperature change in the LS over Reunion.

  5. Long-term trends in thermospheric neutral temperature and density above Millstone Hill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliver, W. L.; Holt, J. M.; Zhang, S.-R.; Goncharenko, L. P.

    2014-09-01

    Incoherent scatter radar measurements of ionospheric temperature and density collected above Millstone Hill over the years 1976-2013 are analyzed to show the long-term trends in noontime neutral temperature and neutral O density over the height region 120-500 km. Exospheric temperature cooled by 69.3 ± 6.4 K over the period, an order of magnitude greater than that expected from greenhouse gas action. The O density dropped 0.081 ± 5.6% at 400 km altitude but rose by 36.9 ± 5.0% at 120 km over this period. This trend in density at 400 km agrees with that determined from satellite drag. The increase in density at 120 km counteracts the thermal contraction of the thermosphere expected to be associated with the cooling, resulting in only a small density response at 400 km. The long-term O density increase at 120 km may be caused by a long-term descent of the turbopause height of 4.2 km. Such a descent has been documented by a series of rocket mass spectrometer measurements.

  6. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is increasing (reducing) with significance in almost all regions. "Região dos Lagos" has the most significant trends of increasing in temperature, thereby influencing the local production of salt and alkaline minerals in medium and long term. The goal of this research is, through the analysis of results, support studies of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change scenarios in Rio de Janeiro State.

  7. The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

  8. Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohlinger, P.; Sinnhuber, B.-M.; Ruhnke, R.; Kirner, O.

    2014-02-01

    Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by -0.41 ± 0.11 K decade-1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001-2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.

  9. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarenistanak, Mohammad; Dhorde, Amit G.; Kripalani, R. H.

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents results of trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation, and mean temperature (TM), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN) time series of the period 1950-2007. Investigations were carried out for 50 precipitation stations and 39 temperature stations located in southwest Iran. Three statistical tests including Pettitt's test, Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) and Mann-Kendall rank test (MK-test) were used for the analysis. The results obtained for precipitation series indicated that most stations showed insignificant trends in annual and seasonal series. Out of the stations which showed significant trends, highest numbers were observed during winter season while no significant trends were detected in summer precipitation. Moreover, no decreasing significant trends were detected by statistical tests in annual and seasonal precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during summer and spring seasons. TMAX was more stable than TMIN and TM, and winter was stable compared to summer, spring and autumn seasons. The results of change point detection indicated that most of the positive significant mutation points in TM, TMAX and TMIN began in the 1990s.

  10. Full-depth temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desbruyères, D. G.; McDonagh, E. L.; King, B. A.; Garry, F. K.; Blaker, A. T.; Moat, B. I.; Mercier, H.

    2014-11-01

    The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated using a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0-450 m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000 m to 3000 m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003-2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000 m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively), while the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53 ± 0.06 W m-2 through the sea surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus.

  11. Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and warming trends in the Yellow Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Kyung-Ae; Lee, Eun-Young; Chang, Eunmi; Hong, Sungwook

    2015-03-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Yellow Sea was investigated using satellite data and in-situ measurements over 29 years from 1981 to 2009. We found that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST variability, which accounts for 47.59% of the total SST variance, exhibited a warming signal during the study period. We examined the relationships between the dominant EOF mode, long-term trends of SST changes and in-situ temperatures, and bathymetry. As a result, the shallow regions demonstrated more significant increasing rates than the deep area in the Yellow Sea. Vertical stratification of the water column revealed long-term changes, which led to differential surface warming. The warming rates decayed monotonically with depth. The spatial features of long-term SST warming trends were most remarkable near the Yangtze River, due to the effect of river discharge. Abrupt changes in the time-varying amplitude of the first EOF mode in winter could be explained by Arctic Oscillation.

  12. Mercury trends in predatory fish in Great Slave Lake: the influence of temperature and other climate drivers.

    PubMed

    Evans, Marlene; Muir, Derek; Brua, Robert B; Keating, Jonathan; Wang, Xiaowa

    2013-11-19

    Here we report on trends in mercury (Hg) concentrations in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), burbot (Lota lota), and northern pike (Esox lucius) from Great Slave Lake, located in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) and investigate how climate factors may be influencing these trends. Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot increased significantly over the early 1990s to 2012 in the two major regions of the lake; no trend was evident for northern pike over 1999-2012. Temporal variations in Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot were similar with respect to timing of peaks and troughs. Inclusion of climate variables based on annual means, particularly temperature, improved explanatory power for variations in Hg over analyses based only on year and fish length; unexpectedly, the temperature coefficient was negative. Climate analyses based on growing season means (defined as May-September) had less explanatory power suggesting that trends were more strongly associated with colder months within the year. Inclusion of the Pacific/North American index improved explanatory power for the lake trout model suggesting that trends may have been affected by air circulation patterns. Overall, while our study confirmed previously reported trends of Hg increase in burbot in the MRB, we found no evidence that these trends were directly driven by increasing temperatures and productivity. PMID:24111928

  13. Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison. Final report, 1 July 1990-30 June 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Tiao, G.C.

    1992-11-01

    Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

  14. D.A. Stone A.J. Weaver Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth

    E-print Network

    model repre- senting the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface systems. Consistent with pastD.A. Stone Æ A.J. Weaver Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth temperature range (DTR) are examined in the late twentieth and the twenty-first centuries in a coupled climate

  15. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  16. Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Mears, C.; Wentz, F. J.; Klein, S. A.; Seidel, D. J.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P. W.; Wehner, M. F.; Gleckler, P. J.; Boyle, J. S.; Collins, W. D.; Dixon, K. W.; Doutriaux, C.; Free, M.; Fu, Q.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, G. S.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J. R.; Meehl, G. A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G. A.

    2005-09-01

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  17. Trends in the design of front-end systems for room temperature solid state detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Manfredi, Pier F.; Re, Valerio

    2003-10-07

    The paper discusses the present trends in the design of low-noise front-end systems for room temperature semiconductor detectors. The technological advancement provided by submicron CMOS and BiCMOS processes is examined from several points of view. The noise performances are a fundamental issue in most detector applications and suitable attention is devoted to them for the purpose of judging whether or not the present processes supersede the solutions featuring a field-effect transistor as a front-end element. However, other considerations are also important in judging how well a monolithic technology suits the front-end design. Among them, the way a technology lends itself to the realization of additional functions, for instance, the charge reset in a charge-sensitive loop or the time-variant filters featuring the special weighting functions that may be requested in some applications of CdTe or CZT detectors.

  18. Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

    2013-05-01

    The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts due to bleaching in 1983 and 1998, and increasing variance in anomalies (both positive and negative) the E-Pacific presently maintains an upward trend in coral cover and colony frequency. In the Red Sea , variance in anomalies increased but exclusively towards positive values. In the Gulf, variance declined towards stronger and only positive anomalies. In both regions, this raised thermal envelope is associated with reef decline. This is most dramatic in the Gulf, with six bleaching events since 1996, but also obvious in the Red Sea (bleaching in 1998, 2005 and 2010). Both Gulf and Red Sea suffer also from other mortality factors, such as diseases and predator outbreaks. Decline in reef health is therefore not uniquely linked to bleaching, but other mortality factors are also linked to changes in the thermal envelope. Chronic effects of increased average temperatures seem to define a reef trajectory more closely than the effects of individual, albeit strong, episodic disturbances.

  19. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid-based molecular thermometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-06-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g., surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry) analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent-extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26 carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs preserved in the sediment record of Lake Schreventeich reflect summer surface water temperatures. As N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria are widespread in present-day freshwater and brackish environments, we conclude that the distribution of HGs in sediments may allow for the reconstruction of surface water temperatures of modern and potentially ancient lacustrine settings.

  20. On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

  1. Linear analysis of surface temperature dynamics and climate sensitivity 

    E-print Network

    Wu, Wei

    2007-04-25

    in globally and annually averaged temperature for a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is a key determinant of climate change and its large uncertainties remain in recent studies. In this work we employ a statistical..., North 1990, Leung and North 1990, Leung and North 1991, Graves et al. 1993, Kim et al. 1996). They have been successful in modeling climate and climate change related to the surface temperature field and have been making contributions to climate...

  2. Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Larsen, S. H.; Drew, D. M.; Downes, G. M.; Francey, R. J.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

    2014-10-01

    To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the “Divergence Problem” (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000-2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of ‘divergence', we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated.

  3. Spatiotemporal analysis of temperature trends under climate change in the source region of the Yellow River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuli; Wang, Xuan; Li, Chunhui; Wu, Feifei; Yang, Zhifeng

    2015-01-01

    Under global climate change, the change in temperature has greatly affected the hydrological processes and water resource security in the source region of the Yellow River, which is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and serves as a major source of domestic and agricultural water supply in the watershed. Multiple spatiotemporal analysis methods, including the S-mode empirical orthogonal function analysis, the inverse distance weighted interpolation, the weighted moving average method, and the Mann-Kendall test method were used to comprehensively analyze the temperatures of 14 meteorological stations at yearly and seasonal scales from 1961 to 2010. The results indicated that (1) general trends of temperature change have been rising, with an especially significant warming trend since the late 1990s; (2) in the last five decades, temperature trends in the study area underwent three stages, namely a cool stage (approximately 1961-1980), a fluctuating stage (approximately 1981-1997), and a warm stage (approximately 1998-2010); and (3) due to the combined effects of monsoons and geographic features, the source region could be divided into three zones according to the annual temperature variations: a low-value zone centered on Henan station in the northeastern edge; a high-value zone situated in the central, southern, and western area; and a transitional zone between the two zones mentioned above. This study is helpful for understanding temperature trends under climate change and can provide a basis for ecological protection.

  4. Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

    2013-01-01

    Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

  5. The A3507 and A3508 are sensitive, temperature-stable linear Hall-effect sensors. Ratiometric, linear Hall-effect sensors provide a

    E-print Network

    Stanford University

    The A3507­ and A3508­ are sensitive, temperature-stable linear Hall-effect sensors. Ratiometric, linear Hall-effect sensors provide a voltage output that is proportional to the applied magnetic field RATIOMETRIC, LINEAR HALL-EFFECT SENSORS FOR HIGH-TEMPERATURE OPERATION DataSheet 27501.1B 3507 AND 3508

  6. Global patterns of the trends in satellite-derived crop yield proxy, temperature and soil moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakai, T.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.

    2014-12-01

    Crop productivity (yield) is sensitive to climate variability and change. To inform stakeholders, including food agencies in food-importing countries, about future variations in food supply associated with climate variability and change, understanding major climatic drivers of the spatiotemporal variations in crop yield over global cropland during the last few decades is crucial. Although remote sensing has difficulty distinguishing individual crops and misses entire cropping cycles in areas where extensive cloud cover during the monsoon limits satellite observations, it is still useful in deriving a proxy of crop yield over large spatial domain and estimating the impacts on crop yield proxy due to climate, including land-surface temperature and surface-layer soil moisture. This study presents an attempt to globally depict the impact of climate change on crop yield proxy by applying a time series analysis to MODIS and AMSR-E satellite images. The crop yield proxy used was the annual maximum or integrated MODIS-derived NDVI during the growing period predefined on the basis of the global crop calendar. The trends in the crop yield proxy in the interval 2001-2013 appeared positive in higher latitudes and negative in lower latitudes. In higher latitudes (and thus colder regions), the increased land-surface temperature led to an increase in crop yield in part due to the enhanced photosynthesis rate. In contrast, the crop yield proxy showed negative correlation with land-surface temperature in lower latitudes. The increased temperature might decrease crop yield by increasing evapotranspiration rate, plant respiration and/or heat stress. The crop yield proxy was also correlated with the AMSR-E-derived soil moisture, although the geographical distribution of soil moisture was highly heterogeneous.

  7. Long-term Temperature Trends in the Deep Waters of the Weddell Sea Robin Robertson*, Martin Visbeck, Arnold L. Gordon, and E. Fahrbach1

    E-print Network

    Robertson, Robin

    of the WSBW in the central Weddell Sea observed by Fahrbach et al. [1998a], and to the surface ice temperatureLong-term Temperature Trends in the Deep Waters of the Weddell Sea Robin Robertson*, Martin Visbeck November 28, 2001 #12;Long-term Temperature Trends in the Deep Waters of the Weddell Sea 2 Abstract Warming

  8. Hiatus in global mean temperature: trend patterns inspected with MSU/AMSU and GNSS-RO satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, J. K.; Christiansen, B.; Gleisner, H.; Thejll, P.

    2014-12-01

    Over the last 15 years, global mean surface temperatures exhibit only a weak trend - widely referred to as a hiatus - compared to the preceding 25-year period. Recent studies have attempted to attribute the hiatus to several causes, e.g., ocean-atmosphere energy exchange mechanisms, stratospheric water vapour, and impacts of volcanic emissions unaccounted for. Recently, the phenomenon has also been analysed in terms of incomplete sampling of the rapidly warming Arctic region.We here examine zonal mean temperature trends in satellite-based tropospheric data sets with a global coverage, and compare them to the HadCRUT4 surface data set. MSU/AMSU data allow us to study tropospheric temperature trend patterns in the pre-hiatus period 1985--1997 relative to the hiatus period 2001--2013. The latter period is also covered by GNSS Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) measurements from which geopotential heights of isobaric surfaces, and hence mean tropospheric temperatures, can be derived. Omission of successively larger polar regions from the global-mean temperature calculations, in both tropospheric and surface data sets, shows that data gaps at high latitudes can not explain the observed differences between the hiatus and the pre-hiatus period. Leaving out high latitudes leads to an under-estimation of the trend in the global means, but this effect is only a minor contributor to the hiatus phenomenon.Instead, the dominating causes appears to be found at low- and mid-latitudes.

  9. Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Yinghui; Zhang, Xunchang; Zheng, Fenli; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    The variability of surface air temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum (TN) and maximum temperature (TX) observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of temperature indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed for the period of 1960-2012 for this area. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by - 3.45, - 1.03, - 3.04, - 0.42 and - 1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of - 0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. However, the decreasing trends all occurred in 1960-1985, while increasing trends though insignificant were found in all sub-regions and the whole YRB during 1986-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. In general, the overall warming in the YRB was mainly due to the warming in 1986-2012. Strong relationships between temperature trends and elevation were detected in this study. The warming rates increased with elevation when elevation is above 350 m, but decreased with elevation when elevation is below 350 m.

  10. Linear polarization measurements at high temperatures in hypersaline geothermal brines. Report of investigations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. D. Cramer; P. B. Jr. Needham

    1978-01-01

    The Bureau of Mines conducted a series of in situ linear polarization measurements in high-temperature, high-pressure hypersaline geothermal brines at the Bureau of Mines Geothermal Test Facility in the Imperial Valley of California. The measurements represented an evaluation of the linear polarization technique for obtaining instantaneous corrosion rates of materials of construction in flowing hypersaline hydrothermal fluids that rapidly form

  11. OXIDATIVE CRACKING OF LINEAR HYDROCARBONS AT LOW TEMPERATURES

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Leôncio Diógenes T. Câmara; Rafael S. Monteiro; Alex M. Constantino; Donato A. G. Aranda; Júlio C. Afonso

    2010-01-01

    This work describes the oxidative cracking of n-alkanes with molecular oxygen at low temperatures (below 473 K) in an autoclave reactor. An increase of the oxygen consumption rate with increasing hydrocarbon size was observed. Data for n-hexadecane indicate that oxidative cracking is an autocatalytic reaction. The oxidation rate increased with the progress of the reaction. Low molecular weight compounds were formed

  12. The effects of urbanization on temperature trends in different economic periods and geographical environments in northwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Feng; Guo, Junqin; Sun, Landong; Wang, Jing; Wang, Xinping

    2014-04-01

    Using data collected from 22 urban and 65 rural meteorological stations in northwestern China between 1961 and 2009, this paper presents a study concerning the effects of urbanization on air temperature trends. To distinguish among the potential influences that stem from the economic development levels, population scales, and geographic environments of the cities in this region, the 49-year study period was divided into two periods: a period of less economic development, from 1961 to 1978, and a period of greater economic development, from 1979 to 2009. Each of the cities was classified as a megalopolis, large, or medium-small, depending on the population, and each was classified as a plateau, plain, or oasis city, depending on the surrounding geography. The differences in the air temperature trends between cities and the average of their rural counterparts were used to examine the warming effects of urbanization. The results of this study indicate that the magnitude of warming effects due to urbanization depends not only on a city's economic level, but also on the population scale and geographic environment of the city. The urbanization of most cities in northwestern China resulted in considerable negative warming effects during 1961-1978 but evidently positive effects during 1979-2009. The population scale of a city represents a significant factor: a city with a larger population has a stronger warming influence, regardless of whether the effect is negative or positive. Among the three geographic environments of the cities considered, plateaus and plains more significantly enhance warming effects than oases. The urban population trend has a very significant logarithm relationship with the urban temperature effect, but no clear relationships between urban temperature effects and city elevation were detected. The majority of the temperature trends, accounting for more than 60 % of the trends during 1961-2009, can be explained by natural factors, although urbanization has had some obvious effects on temperatures in northwestern China.

  13. Self-focusing and defocusing of Gaussian laser beams in plasmas with linear temperature ramp

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou Zhongxiang; Wang Ying; Yuan Chengxun; Du Yanwei [Department of Physics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)

    2011-07-15

    The propagation characteristics of the Gaussian laser beam in plasmas in the presence of a linear electron temperature ramp have been investigated by taking the electron temperature as an individual variable. The ponderomotive force and collision have been considered as the mechanisms of nonlinearity. The second order differential equation of the dimensionless beam-width parameter has been acquired and solved with several initial electron temperatures and plus-minus temperature ramp parameters. The propagation regimes of laser beam are found to be sensitive with the selection of electron temperature. The linear temperature ramp breaks the stationary propagating mode and enhances the self-focusing or defocusing propagation properties. Results indicate the feasibility of extended propagation of focused laser beam in plasmas by modifying the electron temperature.

  14. Climatology and trends of mesospheric (58-90) temperatures based upon 1982-1986 SME limb scattering profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.

    1989-01-01

    Atmospheric temperature profiles for the altitude range 58-90 km were calculated using data on global UV limb radiances from the SME satellite. The major elements of this climatology include a high vertical resolution (about 4 km) and the coverage of the 70-90 km altitude region. The analysis of this extensive data set provides a global definition of mesospheric-lower thermospheric temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period. The observations suggest a pattern of 1-2 K/year decreases in temperatures at 80-90-km altitudes accompanied by 0.5-1.5 K/year increases in temperatures at 65-80-km altitudes.

  15. Elevation dependence of air temperature trends in western Canada This research project will examine the seasonality and elevation dependence of

    E-print Network

    Dery, Stephen

    Elevation dependence of air temperature trends in western Canada This research project will examine the seasonality and elevation dependence of climate change in western Canada. Data from representative and elevation will then be explored. This may provide further evidence of the amplification of climate change

  16. Reconciling disparate 20th Century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature5 trends in the instrumental record6

    E-print Network

    Newman, Matthew

    1 2 3 4 Reconciling disparate 20th Century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature5 trends in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean are consistent across26 the 4 datasets, it is uncertain whether theories for the response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to an1 increase in greenhouse gases. Assuming

  17. Temperature climatology and trend estimates in the UTLS region as observed over a southern subtropical site, Durban, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bencherif, H.; Diab, R. D.; Portafaix, T.; Morel, B.; Keckhut, P.; Moorgawa, A.

    2006-02-01

    Temperature trends in the UTLS region are under-reported, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and yet temperature is one of the most important indicators of changes in dynamical and radiative processes in the atmosphere. Here radiosonde data from Durban, South Africa (30.0° S, 30.9° E) over the period 1980 to 2001 (22 years) between 250 and 20 hPa are used to derive a mean temperature climatology and to determine trends. The seasonal cycle at the 250-hPa level is anti-correlated with the seasonal cycles at the 150-hPa and 100-hPa heights. The 100-hPa level (local tropopause) exhibits a minimum temperature in late summer and a maximum in winter, and closely corresponds to previous results for tropical regions. Based on a Fourier analysis, both the annual cycle (AO) and the semi-annual cycle (SAO) are dominant, although the former is about 4 times stronger. The AO is strongest at the 100-hPa height. A trend analysis reveals a cooling trend at almost all heights in the UTLS region, with a maximum cooling rate of 1.09±0.27 K per decade, at 70-hPa. Cooling rates are in good agreement with other studies and are slightly higher in summer than in winter.

  18. Temperature climatology and trend estimates in the UTLS region as observed over a southern subtropical site, Durban, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bencherif, H.; Diab, R. D.; Portafaix, T.; Morel, B.; Keckhut, P.; Moorgawa, A.

    2006-11-01

    Temperature trends in the UTLS region are under-reported, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and yet temperature is one of the most important indicators of changes in dynamical and radiative processes in the atmosphere. Here radiosonde data from Durban, South Africa (30.0° S, 30.9° E) over the period 1980 to 2001 (22 years) between 250 and 20 hPa are used to derive a mean temperature climatology and to determine trends. The seasonal cycle at the 250-hPa level is anti-correlated with the seasonal cycles at the 150-hPa and 100-hPa heights. The 100-hPa level (local tropopause) exhibits a minimum temperature in late summer and a maximum in winter, and closely corresponds to previous results for tropical regions. Based on a Fourier analysis, both the annual cycle (AO) and the semi-annual cycle (SAO) are dominant, although the former is about 4 times stronger. The AO is strongest at the 100-hPa height. A trend analysis reveals a cooling trend at almost all heights in the UTLS region, with a maximum cooling rate of 1.09±0.41 K per decade, at 70-hPa. Cooling rates are in good agreement with other studies and are slightly higher in summer than in winter.

  19. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. J. Manton; P. M. della-Marta; M. R. Haylock; K. J. Hennessy; N. Nicholls; L. E. Chambers; D. A. Collins; G. Daw; A. Finet; D. Gunawan; K. Inape; H. Isobe; T. S. Kestin; P. Lefale; C. H. Leyu; T. Lwin; L. Maitrepierre; N. Ouprasitwong; C. M. Page; J. Pahalad; N. Plummer; M. J. Salinger; R. Suppiah; V. L. Tran; B. Trewin; I. Tibig; D. Yee

    2001-01-01

    Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm nights, with significant decreases in

  20. A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Niño events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the Artic between 2002 and 2007, which has since level off, but no significant trend in the Antarctic. The AIRS results since 2002 are confirmed by IASI data since 2007. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  1. Combined Use of Multiple Linear Regression, Optimal Interpolation and Gis In Producing Temperature Maps

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Percec Tadic; K. Pandzic

    2002-01-01

    In intention to produce climate maps of monthly and annual average air temperature for the CLINO period 1961-1990 the data from the meteorological stations are inter- polated to regular grid. Combined use of multiple linear regression method and opti- mal interpolation was introduced. For every grid point, the temperature anomaly from the corresponding average is assumed in the form of

  2. Effect of recent sea surface temperature trends on the Arctic stratospheric vortex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Hurwitz, M. M.; Oman, L. D.

    2015-06-01

    Comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments and observational data are used to show that up to half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically and radiatively active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs and cooling of the tropical Pacific have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone loss is larger in the presence of changing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  3. Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

    2015-05-01

    During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 1998/1999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal-scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDO's phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres, even though the PDO's net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well. However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes/trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors: anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific, including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDO's contributions. Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

  4. Modeled Global vs. Coastal Impacts on 1970 and 2005 Summer Daytime Temperature Trends in Coastal California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habtezion, B. L.; Gonzalez, J.; Bornstein, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    California summertime July to August (JJA) mean monthly air temperatures (1970-2005) were analyzed for two California air basins: South Coast (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), which extended into the Central Valley (CV). Daily Tmin and Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of and Tmax values trends for each air basin. Results showed concurrent cooling in coastal areas and warming at further inland areas. This pattern suggests that the regional-warming of inland areas resulted in increased coastal sea breeze activity. Further investigations by use of mesoscale model simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meso-met model with a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km on an inner grid over SoCAB were undertaken to investigate the effects of long-term changes due to green house gas (GHG) warming and land-use land-cover changes on coastal flows. Comparison of simulated present (2000-4) and past climate (1970-4) conditions showed significant increases in sea breeze activity and thus coastal cooling, which supports the observational analysis results that coastal cooling is an indirect “reverse reaction” of GHG warming. The magnitude and location of the simulated and observed coastal-cooling region were in good agreement. Urbanization effects on coastal environment were twofold: increased urban mechanical surface roughness retards sea breeze flows, while urban heat islands (UHIs) enhance them. Significant beneficial societal impacts will result from this observed reverse-reaction to global-warming, especially during UHI-growth periods, include decreased maximum: agricultural production, O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels. Similar “reverse-reaction” effects should be found in other mid-latitude western coastal-regions.

  5. Surface Temperature Extremes and Detectable Trends in Northern Hemisphere Mid-Tropospheric Planetary Wave Pattern Occurrence and Persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of extremely hot and extremely cold days has been linked to the propagation and persistence of mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Here, we utilize self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis to determine the occurrence, persistence, and maximum duration of mid-tropospheric planetary wave patterns from the 1979 to 2013 and 1990 to 2013 periods in the ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP-DOE R2 reanalysis 500 mb geopotential height fields. We conduct seasonal analyses of seven northern hemisphere mid-latitude domains and determine circulation pattern matches between reanalysis datasets using rmse and pattern correlation metrics. We consider a particular spatial pattern within a given domain to exhibit a robust trend in either occurrence or persistence when a matching pattern from all three reanalysis datasets exhibits a statistically significant trend over the chosen analysis period. We find robust trends in a limited number of domains, including less frequent troughing events over central North America in the winter months for the 1979 to 2013 period, more frequent and longer maximum duration ridging events over central/eastern Europe and western Asia in the summer months for both periods, and longer maximum duration ridging events over the eastern Pacific/western North America during the winter months for the 1990 to 2013 period. In regions that exhibit a robust trend in a particular mid-latitude wave pattern, we test whether such a trend in circulation can be linked to the occurrence of extreme hot/cold surface temperature events. Lastly and conversely, we assess the fraction of temperature extreme trends that can be attributed to changes in the occurrence or persistence of particular wave patterns.

  6. Continuous salinity and temperature data from san francisco estuary, 19822002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shellenbarger, G.G.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinityfreshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from -0.0020 to -0.0096 (m3 s-1) -1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.61.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable. ?? 2011 Coastal Education & Research Foundation.

  7. An extension of the time–temperature superposition principle to non-linear viscoelastic solids

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Robert Nevière

    2006-01-01

    An experimental data treatment is introduced to manage with the tensile test responses of highly non-linear viscoelastic solids such as solid propellants. This treatment allows the representation of a set of strain–stress curves by a single intrinsic non-linear response which is found independent of the experimental conditions of rate and temperature. To obtain this result, two independent normalization factors are

  8. Ubiquity of Linear Resistivity at Intermediate Temperature in Strongly Correlated Metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyd, Greg; Zlatic, V.; Freericks, Jim

    2014-03-01

    Correlated metals display transport behavior that differs from what is commonly seen in ordinary metals (Fermi-liquids). One of the most salient features is a resistivity that is linear in temperature over decades in temperature and rises to well above the Ioffe-Regel limit (where the mean-free path is less than a lattice spacing). Using an exact representation of the Kubo linear response, we show that a linear resistivity naturally occurs in a minimal model that includes only hopping and correlation. We expect this to be common to many systems at an incoherent intermediate-temperature state, above the Fermi coherence scale. We verify the analytic arguments with exact calculations for Falicov-Kimball model which is solved with dynamical mean-field theory. Similar features have also been seen in Hubbard models, which can be approximated by the Falicov-Kimball model.

  9. Surface temperature cooling trends and negative radiative forcing due to land use change toward greenhouse farming in southeastern Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campra, Pablo; Garcia, Monica; Canton, Yolanda; Palacios-Orueta, Alicia

    2008-09-01

    Greenhouse horticulture has experienced in recent decades a dramatic spatial expansion in the semiarid province of Almeria, in southeastern (SE) Spain, reaching a continuous area of 26,000 ha in 2007, the widest greenhouse area in the world. A significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C decade-1 in this area during the period 1983-2006 is first time reported here. This local cooling trend shows no correlation with Spanish regional and global warming trends. Radiative forcing (RF) is widely used to assess and compare the climate change mechanisms. Surface shortwave RF (SWRF) caused through clearing of pasture land for greenhouse farming development in this area is estimated here. We present the first empirical evidences to support the working hypothesis of the development of a localized forcing created by surface albedo change to explain the differences in temperature trends among stations either inside or far from this agricultural land. SWRF was estimated from satellite-retrieved surface albedo data and calculated shortwave outgoing fluxes associated with either uses of land under typical incoming solar radiation. Outgoing fluxes were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. A difference in mean annual surface albedo of +0.09 was measured comparing greenhouses surface to a typical pasture land. Strong negative forcing associated with land use change was estimated all year round, ranging from -5.0 W m-2 to -34.8 W m-2, with a mean annual value of -19.8 W m-2. According to our data of SWRF and local temperatures trends, recent development of greenhouse horticulture in this area may have masked local warming signals associated to greenhouse gases increase.

  10. Ozone and Temperature Trends in the Upper Stratosphere at Five Stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbrecht, W.; Claude, H.; Schönenborn, F.; McDermid, S.; Leblanc, T.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Keckhut, P.; Hauchecorne, A.; van Gijsel, J. A.; Swart, D. P.; Bodeker, G. E.; Parrish, A.; Boyd, I. S.; Kämpfer, N.; Hocke, K.; Stolarski, R. S.; Frith, S. M.; Thomason, L. W.; Remsberg, E. E.; von~Savigny, C.; Burrows, J. P.; Eyring, V.; Shepherd, T. G.

    2008-12-01

    We use comprehensive records of upper stratospheric (35 to 45~km) ozone and temperature from several space- and ground-based data sets at five stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), from 45°S to 48°N, and starting in 1979. The space based ozone records come from the Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE I and II), Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY). The ground-based records come from lidars and microwave radiometers at the NDACC stations. For temperature, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA-40), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses, and HALOE and lidar measurements are used. All data sets show essentially the same long-term variations, attributable to QBO, 11-year solar-cycle, anthropogenic chlorine and other trends. Monthly mean anomalies from the different data-sets typically agree within 5% for ozone, and within 3~K for temperature. From 1979 until the late 1990s, due to increasing anthropogenic chlorine, all available data-sets show a clear decline of ozone near 40~km, by 10% to 15%. This decline has not continued in the last 10~years. At some sites, ozone at 40~km even appears to have increased since 2000, consistent with the beginning decline of stratospheric chlorine. Temperatures near 40~km altitude have been fluctuating around a constant level at all five NDACC stations since about 1985. This non-decline of upper stratospheric temperatures would be a new and significant change from the more or less linear cooling of the upper stratosphere seen before the 1990s, and reported in previous trend assessments. Chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations track the historical ozone anomalies and reproduce the change in ozone tendency in the late 1990s. The phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons after the 1987 International Montreal Protocol now shows positive effects on ozone in the upper stratosphere. However, due to increasing CO2, the CCMs simulate a continuous linear cooling by 1~K per decade over the entire 1979 to 2010 period. This is not consistent with the near-constant temperatures observed since the late 1980s.

  11. A Linearization Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor Using a Curvature Compensation Oscillator

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Hao-Wen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an area-efficient time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator for linearity enhancement with a ?40 to 120 °C temperature range operability. The inverter-based smart temperature sensors can substantially reduce the cost and circuit complexity of integrated temperature sensors. However, a large curvature exists on the temperature-to-time transfer curve of the inverter-based delay line and results in poor linearity of the sensor output. For cost reduction and error improvement, a temperature-to-pulse generator composed of a ring oscillator and a time amplifier was used to generate a thermal sensing pulse with a sufficient width proportional to the absolute temperature (PTAT). Then, a simple but effective on-chip curvature compensation oscillator is proposed to simultaneously count and compensate the PTAT pulse with curvature for linearization. With such a simple structure, the proposed sensor possesses an extremely small area of 0.07 mm2 in a TSMC 0.35-?m CMOS 2P4M digital process. By using an oscillator-based scheme design, the proposed sensor achieves a fine resolution of 0.045 °C without significantly increasing the circuit area. With the curvature compensation, the inaccuracy of ?1.2 to 0.2 °C is achieved in an operation range of ?40 to 120 °C after two-point calibration for 14 packaged chips. The power consumption is measured as 23 ?W at a sample rate of 10 samples/s. PMID:23989825

  12. Elevation-Dependent Temperature Trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: Changes over a 56- and 20-Year Record

    PubMed Central

    McGuire, Chris R.; Nufio, César R.; Bowers, M. Deane; Guralnick, Robert P.

    2012-01-01

    Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953–2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989–2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change. PMID:22970205

  13. Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion for Temperature-Dependent Linear Spectra of Light Harvesting Aggregates

    E-print Network

    Ritschel, Gerhard; Möbius, Sebastian; Strunz, Walter T; Eisfeld, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion (NMQSD) has turned out to be an effective method to calculate excitonic properties of aggregates composed of organic chromophores, taking into account the strong coupling of electronic transitions to vibrational modes of the chromophores. In this paper we show how to calculate linear optical spectra at finite temperatures in an efficient way. To this end we map a finite temperature environment to the zero temperature case using the so-called thermofield method. The zero temperature case equations can then be solved efficiently by standard integrators. As an example we calculate absorption and circular dichroism spectra of a linear aggregate. The formalism developed can be applied to calculate arbitrary correlation functions.

  14. Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Role in Intensifying the East Asian Summer Monsoon.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Siyao; Li, Jian; Yu, Rucong; Chen, Haoming

    2015-01-01

    At the beginning of the 21st century, the July and August (JA) mean upper-tropospheric temperature over East Asia shows a significant increasing trend, contrary to the decreasing trend in the late 1970?s. The largest warming center is over northern China (between 30°N-45°N and 85°E-120°E) around 300?hPa. Together with the temperature rising, the geo-potential height rises above the warming center and drops below, which connects closely to a correspondingly significant decadal shift of the general circulation over East Asia. In the upper-level of the troposphere, an anomalous anti-cyclone dominates, and the 200-hPa westerly jet strengthens due to the increasing pole-ward geo-potential height gradient. In the lower-troposphere, the anomalous southerly wind increases around Yangtze River Valley and the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. The integrated circulation changes seriously impact summer precipitation over East Asia. The so-called "southern flood and northern drought" (SFND) pattern since the 1970?s over eastern China has changed. As the cooling center in the 1970?s moves southward, the dry belt moves southward as well. A wet belt dominates the Huaihe River Valley after the temperature trend reversal at 2005 while southern China experiences a dry condition. PMID:26135966

  15. Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Role in Intensifying the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Siyao; Li, Jian; Yu, Rucong; Chen, Haoming

    2015-01-01

    At the beginning of the 21st century, the July and August (JA) mean upper-tropospheric temperature over East Asia shows a significant increasing trend, contrary to the decreasing trend in the late 1970?s. The largest warming center is over northern China (between 30°N–45°N and 85°E–120°E) around 300?hPa. Together with the temperature rising, the geo-potential height rises above the warming center and drops below, which connects closely to a correspondingly significant decadal shift of the general circulation over East Asia. In the upper-level of the troposphere, an anomalous anti-cyclone dominates, and the 200–hPa westerly jet strengthens due to the increasing pole-ward geo-potential height gradient. In the lower-troposphere, the anomalous southerly wind increases around Yangtze River Valley and the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. The integrated circulation changes seriously impact summer precipitation over East Asia. The so-called “southern flood and northern drought” (SFND) pattern since the 1970?s over eastern China has changed. As the cooling center in the 1970?s moves southward, the dry belt moves southward as well. A wet belt dominates the Huaihe River Valley after the temperature trend reversal at 2005 while southern China experiences a dry condition. PMID:26135966

  16. Effect of temperature on tribological performance of a silicon nitride ball material with a linear perfluoropolyalkylether

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. K. Trivedi; C. S. Saba

    2001-01-01

    The effect of temperature in rolling contact performance of a hot isostatically pressed (HIP) silicon nitride ball material with a linear perfluoropolyalkylether (PFPAE) was studied using a ball-on-rod type rolling contact fatigue tester. The test temperature ranged from ambient to 343?°C for a period of 24 h at a stress of 5.5 GPa using thin dense chrome (TDC)-coated T-15 bearing

  17. Linear metric and temperature fluctuations of a charged plasma in a primordial magnetic field

    E-print Network

    Haba, Z

    2015-01-01

    We discuss tensor metric perturbations in a magnetic field around the homogeneous Juttner equilibrium of massless particles in an expanding universe. We solve the Liouville equation and derive the energy-momentum tensor up to linear terms in the metric and in the magnetic field.The term linear in the magnetic field is different from zero if the total charge of the primordial plasma is non-zero. We obtain an analytic formula for temperature fluctuations treating the tensor metric perturbations and the magnetic field as independent random variables. Assuming a cutoff on large momenta of the magnetic spectral function we show that the presence of the magnetic field can discriminate only low multipoles in the multipole expansion of temperature fluctuations. In such a case the term linear in the magnetic field can be more important than the quadratic one (corresponding to the fluctuations of the pure magnetic field).

  18. Linear metric and temperature fluctuations of a charged plasma in a primordial magnetic field

    E-print Network

    Z. Haba

    2015-04-14

    We discuss tensor metric perturbations in a magnetic field around the homogeneous Juttner equilibrium of massless particles in an expanding universe. We solve the Liouville equation and derive the energy-momentum tensor up to linear terms in the metric and in the magnetic field.The term linear in the magnetic field is different from zero if the total charge of the primordial plasma is non-zero. We obtain an analytic formula for temperature fluctuations treating the tensor metric perturbations and the magnetic field as independent random variables. Assuming a cutoff on large momenta of the magnetic spectral function we show that the presence of the magnetic field can discriminate only low multipoles in the multipole expansion of temperature fluctuations. In such a case the term linear in the magnetic field can be more important than the quadratic one (corresponding to the fluctuations of the pure magnetic field).

  19. Temperature Trends in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere from Radio Occultation Climate Records 2002 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, A. K.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Ladstaedter, F.; Schwaerz, M.; Rieckh, T. M.; Kirchengast, G.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric climate monitoring and change detection requires observations of high quality. Conventional observations are available from weather satellites and balloons which were originally not intended to serve climate monitoring needs. The construction of climate records from these data necessitates demanding homogenization and calibration processes. During the last years intensive efforts have been put into reconciling differences in atmospheric temperature trends from radiosondes, microwave sounding instruments, and climate model data. Though basic agreement confirmed a tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, the uncertainties in the trends and their vertical structure remain large in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). A relatively new atmospheric record is available from radio occultation (RO) observations based on signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS), providing a global and continuous data set of key climate variables for the UTLS since fall 2001. The measurements are based on precise atomic clocks and feature accuracy, long-term stability, and consistency across RO missions. Due to this consistency RO measurements from different satellites can be combined without intercalibration. Profiles of bending angle, refractivity, pressure, geopotential height, and temperature are retrieved at a high vertical resolution of about 0.5 km to 1.5 km in the UTLS. Best data quality is achieved from about 5 km to 30 km altitude. Due to these characteristics RO qualifies as climate benchmark data type to investigate atmospheric climate change. In this study we use the recently reprocessed RO data record of the Wegener Center (University of Graz, Austria) over the period 2002 to 2012, including data from the CHAMP, GRACE, Formosat-3/COSMIC, and MetOp satellites. We first briefly recall the demonstrated and remarkable utility of RO for UTLS climate monitoring and then focus on temperature trends in the tropical UTLS. Vertically resolved temperature anomalies and trends will be presented and compared to those of recent radiosonde records and global climate models. In addition, layer average temperatures of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) will be compared for the lower- to mid-stratosphere channels. Overall we aim at providing deeper insight into recent anomalies and trends in the tropical UTLS based on the RO reference climate record.

  20. Geophysical trends from 12+ years of AIRS radiance trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeSouza-Machado, Sergio; Strow, Larrabee; Tangborn, Andrew; Hepplewhite, Chris; Motteler, Howard; Schou, Paul; Buczkowski, Steve

    2015-04-01

    NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder has daily been providing low noise, stable top-of-the atmosphere hyperspectral radiances since 2002. Here we present analysis from 12 year linear radiance trends obtained from two AIRS radiance subsets : (1) clear-sky scenes over ocean and (2) all-sky scenes along the nadir track, which are used to retrieve a geophysical trends using an optimal estimation approach. The retrieved clear sky trends compare favorably with ERA and MERRA re-analysis trends, and in-situ trends for the minor gases. Analysis of all-sky trends show they agree better with ERA than either MERRA or the AIRS Level-2 retrievals. The radiance trends provide highly accurate measurements of atmospheric variability with easily understood error characteristics, unlike typical Level 2 retrievals. These approaches should provide highly accurate measurements of a variety of climate trends (temperature and humidity profiles, land surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing) as the AIRS (or AIRS + JPSS/CrIS + IASI) instrument time-series extends to 15+ years.

  1. Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Atsuhiro Muto; Ted A. Scambos; Konrad Steffen; Andrew G. Slater; Gary D. Clow

    2011-01-01

    We use measured firn temperatures down to depths of 80 to 90 m at four locations in the interior of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica to derive surface temperature histories spanning the past few decades using two different inverse methods. We find that the mean surface temperatures near the ice divide (the highest-elevation ridge of East Antarctic Ice Sheet) have

  2. Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jung-Moon; Won, Young-In; Cho, Young-Jun; Jeong, Myeong-Jae; Shin, Dong-Bin; Lee, Suk-Jo; Lee, Yu-Ri; Oh, Soo-Min; Ban, Soo-Jin

    2011-11-01

    Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123-132°E, 33-44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr-1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004˜0.010 K yr-1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043˜0.082 K yr-1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91˜0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012˜0.078 K yr-1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.

  3. Simulation of cylindrical ion temperature gradient modes in the Columbia Linear Machine experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, S. E.; Sen, A. K.

    2002-08-01

    A comparison of the Columbia Linear Machine experiment [A. K. Sen, J. Chen, and M. Mauel, Phys. Rev. Lett. 66, 429 (1991)] with three-dimensional nonlinear electrostatic gyrokinetic simulation results is given, as well as comparisons with linear theory and simple theoretical predictions of nonlinear saturation. Linear theory is in reasonable agreement with the both experimental and simulation results. An analysis of the radial mode width which is localized by variation in the ion temperature gradient is given and compares well with both experiment and simulation. The theoretical estimate of the nonlinear saturation level is within a factor of 2 of what is observed in experiment and in simulation. In addition, both experiment and simulation show excitation of longer wavelength modes with poloidal mode numbers smaller than the linearly most unstable mode.

  4. Evolutionary trends in high temperature superconductivity. (Latest citations from the INSPEC database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    NONE

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning experimental and theoretical studies of high temperature superconducting materials. Topics include critical temperatures, transition temperatures, superconducting niobium alloys and rare earth metals, superconducting structure stabilization, and magnetic superconductors. Fabrication and evaluation of high temperature superconducting devices and films are included. (Contains a minimum of 75 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  5. Evolutionary trends in high temperature superconductivity. (Latest citations from the INSPEC database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning experimental and theoretical studies of high temperature superconducting materials. Topics include critical temperatures, transition temperatures, superconducting niobium alloys and rare earth metals, superconducting structure stabilization, and magnetic superconductors. Fabrication and evaluation of high temperature superconducting devices and films are included. (Contains a minimum of 68 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF GROUNDFISH IN CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS, NOVA SCOTIA TO LONG ISLAND

    E-print Network

    conditions than by temperature. An alternation in sea-surface temperature has been observed at Atlantic coast in sea-surface temperature, the 1969 annual mean being only slightly lower than the long-term mean and cooling. In Figure 2 seasonal sea-surface-temperature curves at BoothbilY Harbor based on monthly mean

  7. Stratospheric Temperature Trends in the 11 Years of AIRS Spectral Radiance Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, F.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Guo, H.

    2014-12-01

    The AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) level-1b radiances have been shown to be well calibrated (~0.3K or higher) and have little secular drift (~4mK/year) since its operation started in 2002. Given the rich information contained in the spectral radiances, such impressive instrument performances make AIRS radiances a valuable data set in the study of stratospheric climate. We compile 11 years (Sep 2002- Aug 2013) of AIRS radiances at channels in the CO2 v2 band with weighting functions peaked in the stratosphere. Using a state-of-the-art fast and accurate radiance simulator based on the PCRTM (Principle Component-based Radiative Transfer Model), we also simulate synthetic AIRS radiances at these channels based on two types of inputs: one is simulations by a free-running GFDL AM3 model and the other is ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis. AIRS lower-stratospheric channels indicate a cooling trend of no more than 0.23 K/decade while its middle-stratospheric channels show a statistically significant cooling trend as large as 0.58 K/decade. Compared with AIRS observations, GFDL AM3 simulations underestimate the cooling trends in the middle-stratospheric channels while overestimate in the lower-stratospheric channels. Further simulations with separately varying CO2 and SST suggest that the change of CO2 alone is responsible for majority of the cooling trend in the middle-stratospheric channels, but the contributions of time-varying CO2 and SST are comparable in the lower-stratospheric channels. In contrast, the synthetic radiances based on ERA-interim reanalysis show statistically significant positive trends in virtually all stratospheric channels. We also compare the zonal-mean trends estimated from observed and synthetic AIRS spectral radiances and climate data records based on multi-decade SSU (Stratospheric Sounding Unit) measurements. Though discrepancies exist in terms of magnitude and seasonality of the cooling, they all show that most cooling occurs in the tropics instead of the extra-tropics. This work also highlights the challenges to GCM modeling, reanalysis community and satellite measurements for stratospheric trend detection and attribution.

  8. Recent trends and variations in Baltic Sea temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elken, Jüri; Lehmann, Andreas; Myrberg, Kai

    2015-04-01

    The presentation highlights the results of physical oceanography from BACC II (Second BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin) book based on the review of recent literature published until 2013. We include also information from some more recent publications. A recent warming trend in sea surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by all available methods: in-situ measurements, remote sensing data and modelling tools. In particular, remote sensing data for the period 1990-2008 indicate that the annual mean SST has increased even by 1°C per decade, with the greatest increase in the northern Bothnian Bay and also with large increases in the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Riga, and the northern Baltic Proper. Although the increase in the northern areas is affected by the recent decline in the extent and duration of sea ice, and corresponding changes in surface albedo, warming is still evident during all seasons and with the greatest increase occurring in summer. The least warming of surface waters (0.3-0.5°C per decade) occurred northeast of Bornholm Island up to and along the Swedish coast, probably owing to an increase in the frequency of coastal upwelling forced by the westerly wind events. Comparing observations with the results of centennial-scale modelling, recent changes in sea water temperature appear to be within the range of the variability observed during the past 500 years. Overall salinity pattern and stratification conditions are controlled by river runoff, wind conditions, and salt water inflows through the Danish straits. The mean top-layer salinity is mainly influenced by the accumulated river runoff, with higher salinity during dry periods and lower salinity during wet periods. Observations reveal a low-salinity period above the halocline starting in the 1980s. The strength of stratification and deep salinity are reduced when the mean zonal wind stress increases, as it occurred since 1987. Major Baltic Inflows of highly saline water of North Sea origin occur sporadically and transport high-saline water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. These inflow events occur when high pressure over the Baltic region with easterly winds is followed by several weeks of strong westerly winds; changes in the inflow activity are related to the frequency of deep cyclones and their pathways over the Baltic area. Major inflows are often followed by a period of stagnation during which saline stratification decreases and oxygen deficiency develops in the deep basins of the central Baltic. Major inflows are usually of barotropic character. They normally occur during winter and spring and transport relatively cold, salty and oxygen-rich waters to the deep basins. Since 1996, another type of inflows have been observed during summer or early autumn. These inflows are of baroclinic character and transport high-saline, but warm and low-oxygen water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. Event-like water exchange and mixing anomalies, driven by specific atmospheric forcing patterns like sequences of deep cyclones, occur also in other parts of the Baltic Sea.

  9. Commercial Development of an Advanced, High-Temperature, Linear-Fresnel Based Concentrating Solar Power Concept

    SciTech Connect

    Viljoen, Nolan [SkyFuel Inc., Arvada, CO (United States); Schuknecht, Nathan [SkyFuel Inc., Arvada, CO (United States)

    2012-05-28

    Included herein is SkyFuel’s detailed assessment of the potential for a direct molten salt linear Fresnel collector. Linear Fresnel architecture is of interest because it has features that are well suited for use with molten salt as a heat transfer fluid: the receiver is fixed (only the mirrors track), the receiver diameter is large (reducing risk of freeze events), and the total linear feet of receiver can be reduced due to the large aperture area. Using molten salt as a heat transfer fluid increases the allowable operating temperature of a collector field, and the cost of thermal storage is reduced in proportion to that increase in temperature. At the conclusion of this project, SkyFuel determined that the cost goals set forth in the contract could not be reasonably met. The performance of a Linear Fresnel collector is significantly less than that of a parabolic trough, in particular due to linear Fresnel’s large optical cosine losses. On an annual basis, the performance is 20 to 30% below that of a parabolic trough per unit area. The linear Fresnel collector and balance of system costs resulted in an LCOE of approximately 9.9¢/kWhre. Recent work by SkyFuel has resulted in a large aperture trough design (DSP Trough) with an LCOE value of 8.9 ¢/kWhre calculated with comparative financial terms and balance of plant costs (White 2011). Thus, even though the optimized linear Fresnel collector of our design has a lower unit cost than our optimized trough, it cannot overcome the reduction in annual performance.

  10. A linearization time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Hao-Wen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an area-efficient time-domain CMOS smart temperature sensor using a curvature compensation oscillator for linearity enhancement with a -40 to 120 °C temperature range operability. The inverter-based smart temperature sensors can substantially reduce the cost and circuit complexity of integrated temperature sensors. However, a large curvature exists on the temperature-to-time transfer curve of the inverter-based delay line and results in poor linearity of the sensor output. For cost reduction and error improvement, a temperature-to-pulse generator composed of a ring oscillator and a time amplifier was used to generate a thermal sensing pulse with a sufficient width proportional to the absolute temperature (PTAT). Then, a simple but effective on-chip curvature compensation oscillator is proposed to simultaneously count and compensate the PTAT pulse with curvature for linearization. With such a simple structure, the proposed sensor possesses an extremely small area of 0.07 mm2 in a TSMC 0.35-mm CMOS 2P4M digital process. By using an oscillator-based scheme design, the proposed sensor achieves a fine resolution of 0.045 °C without significantly increasing the circuit area. With the curvature compensation, the inaccuracy of -1.2 to 0.2 °C is achieved in an operation range of -40 to 120 °C after two-point calibration for 14 packaged chips. The power consumption is measured as 23 mW at a sample rate of 10 samples/s. PMID:23989825

  11. A New Perspective on Recent Global Warming: Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Philip D. Jones; Richard W. Knight; George Kukla; Neil Plummer; Vyacheslav Razuvayev; Kevin P. Gallo; Janette Lindseay; Robert J. Charlson; Thomas C. Peterson

    1993-01-01

    Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass, accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 (0.84°C versus 0.28°C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature range is approximately equal

  12. Long-Term Temperature Trends and Tree Growth in the Taymir Region of Northern Siberia

    E-print Network

    by the widths of their annual rings, generally forming a wider ring in warm years and a more narrow ring in cold- struct May­September mean temperatures for the past four cen- turies. These warm-season temperatures correlate with annual temperatures and indicate unusual warming in the 20th century. However

  13. The signature of ozone depletion on tropical temperature trends, as revealed by their seasonal cycle in model integrations with single forcings

    E-print Network

    Polvani, Lorenzo M.

    [1] The effect of ozone depletion on temperature trends in the tropical lower stratosphere is explored with an atmospheric general circulation model, and directly contrasted to the effect of increased greenhouse gases and ...

  14. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of air temperature in Europe and Western Asia using data-coupled clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chidean, Mihaela I.; Muñoz-Bulnes, Jesús; Ramiro-Bargueño, Julio; Caamaño, Antonio J.; Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho

    2015-06-01

    Over the last decades, different machine learning techniques have been used to detect climate change patterns, mostly using data from measuring stations located in different parts of the world. Some previous studies focus on temperature as primary variable of study, though there have been other works focused on precipitation or even wind speed as objective variable. In this paper, we use the self-organized Second Order Data Coupled Clustering (SODCC) algorithm to carry out a spatio-temporal analysis of temperature patterns in Europe. By applying the SODCC we identify three different regimes of spatio-temporal correlations based on their geographical extent: small, medium, and large-scale regimes. Based on these regimes, it is possible to detect a change in the spatio-temporal trend of air temperature, reflecting a shift in the extent of the correlations in stations in the Iberian Peninsula and Southern France. We also identify an oscillating spatio-temporal trend in the Western Asia region and a stable medium-scale regime affecting the British Isles. These results are found to be consistent with previous studies in climate change. The patterns obtained with the SODCC algorithm may represent a signal of climate change to be taken into account, and so the SODCC could be used as detection method.

  15. Technology trends in high temperature pressure transducers: The impact of micromachining

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mallon, Joseph R., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the implications of micromachining technology on the development of high temperature pressure transducers. The introduction puts forth the thesis that micromachining will be the technology of choice for the next generation of extended temperature range pressure transducers. The term micromachining is defined, the technology is discussed and examples are presented. Several technologies for high temperature pressure transducers are discussed, including silicon on insulator, capacitive, optical, and vibrating element. Specific conclusions are presented along with recommendations for development of the technology.

  16. Finite difference modelling of the temperature rise in non-linear medical ultrasound fields

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. A Divall; V. F Humphrey

    2000-01-01

    Non-linear propagation of ultrasound can lead to increased heat generation in medical diagnostic imaging due to the preferential absorption of harmonics of the original frequency. A numerical model has been developed and tested that is capable of predicting the temperature rise due to a high amplitude ultrasound field. The acoustic field is modelled using a numerical solution to the Khokhlov–Zabolotskaya–Kuznetsov

  17. Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Vrac; P. Marbaix; D. Paillard; P. Naveau

    2007-01-01

    Local-scale climate information is increasingly needed for the study of past, present and future climate changes. In this study we develop a non-linear statistical downscaling method to generate local temperatures and precipitation values from large-scale variables of a Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (here CLIMBER). Our statistical downscaling scheme is based on the concept of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs),

  18. European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jürg Luterbacher; Daniel Dietrich; Elena Xoplaki; Martin Grosjean; Heinz Wanner

    2004-01-01

    Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900

  19. Long-term trends and interannual variability of temperature in Drake Passage Janet Sprintall

    E-print Network

    Sprintall, Janet

    of variability have been limited to studying sea surface temperature (SST; Niño Southern Oscillation. Variability in sea ice and temperature anomalies lag El Niño variability in the Pacific, with a phasing con- sistent with the observed cyclical patterns of sea ice and sea surface

  20. Piezoresistive Sensitivity, Linearity and Resistance Time Drift of Polysilicon Nanofilms with Different Deposition Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Changzhi; Liu, Xiaowei; Chuai, Rongyan

    2009-01-01

    Our previous research work indicated that highly boron doped polysilicon nanofilms (?100 nm in thickness) have higher gauge factor (the maximum is ?34 for 80 nm-thick films) and better temperature stability than common polysilicon films (? 200nm in thickness) at the same doping levels. Therefore, in order to further analyze the influence of deposition temperature on the film structure and piezoresistance performance, the piezoresistive sensitivity, piezoresistive linearity (PRL) and resistance time drift (RTD) of 80 nm-thick highly boron doped polysilicon nanofilms (PSNFs) with different deposition temperatures were studied here. The tunneling piezoresistive model was established to explain the relationship between the measured gauge factors (GFs) and deposition temperature. It was seen that the piezoresistance coefficient (PRC) of composite grain boundaries is higher than that of grains and the magnitude of GF is dependent on the resistivity of grain boundary (GB) barriers and the weight of the resistivity of composite GBs in the film resistivity. In the investigations on PRL and RTD, the interstitial-vacancy (IV) model was established to model GBs as the accumulation of IV pairs. And the recrystallization of metastable IV pairs caused by material deformation or current excitation is considered as the prime reason for piezoresistive nonlinearity (PRNL) and RTD. Finally, the optimal deposition temperature for the improvement of film performance and reliability is about 620 °C and the high temperature annealing is not very effective in improving the piezoresistive performance of PSNFs deposited at lower temperatures. PMID:22399960

  1. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  2. Regional 20th Century Temperature Trends from Radiosondes and Reanalyses in the Arctic (60°N-90°N)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stickler, Alexander; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    We compare seasonal 20th century atmospheric temperature trends in the Arctic (60°N-90°N) from radiosonde observations (CHUAN, HadAT, IUK, RAOBCORE/RICH, RATPAC) and reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR (NNR), Twentieth Century reanalysis (20CR), CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA). Large differences are found between the magnitudes, vertical profiles of the temperature trends (even for time periods > 3 decades), and chronological sequences of bidecadal, regional warming and cooling periods in the reanalyses. Long term zonal mean vertical trend profiles from CHUAN and from the reanalyses reaching back to the time before the satellite era show an amplification of the tropospheric warming towards the surface in all seasons except in JJA for the periods 1901-99, 1948-99 and 1957-99. In 20CR, a very strong 20th century cooling trend compared to the other datasets is found between 150 and 200 hPa. The agreement of the vertical structure and temporal behaviour of regional, bidecadal trends in the long reanalyses for 11 regions in the Arctic with CHUAN is best on average for ERA-40, followed by a less good agreement with trends from NNR (especially vertical structure) and 20CR (vertical structure and temporal behaviour). ERA-40 performs best for the NE Atlantic, Karelia, the SE Canadian Arctic, Alaska, and Central Siberia, and less favourably in the NW Canadian Arctic, E Siberia, W Siberia, and Novaya Zemlya. NNR agreement with CHUAN is significantly worse than in ERA-40 for the NE Atlantic, SE Canadian Arctic, SW Central Siberia, and E Central Siberia. 20CR performance is generally worse than that of ERA-40 and NNR, particularly for Karelia, the SE Canadian Arctic, Novaya Zemlya, W Siberia, and Central Siberia. For the more recent but shorter reanalyses, the internal agreement is generally very high, and results are close to CHUAN, ERA-40 and NNR. A comparison of CHUAN with the other radiosonde datasets is only possible for Alaska, E Central Siberia, NE Atlantic and NE Central Siberia (only HadAT and IUK), E Siberia and Novaya Zemlya (only HadAT), and Karelia, SW Central Siberia and W Siberia (all except RATPAC). For the period of overlap (1951-99) the agreement is reasonable with respect to the general picture. However, some disagreement on the trend sign can be seen a) for Alaska during DJF 1961-80 with HadAT and IUK, b) for E Central Siberia during MAM 1971-90 and 1980-99 with HadAT and during DJF 1980-99, MAM 1971-99 and SON 1961-80 with IUK, c) for Karelia during MAM/JJA 1961-80 with RAOBCORE/RICH (JJA also with HadAT and IUK), d) for NE Central Siberia during DJF 1961-80 with HadAT, e) for Novaya Zemlya during DJF1961-80 with HadAT, f) for SW Central Siberia during SON 1980-99 with RAOBCORE/RICH, g) for W Siberia during DJF/MAM 1961-80 with RAOBCORE/RICH, HadAT and IUK.

  3. Variability and Trends of Air Temperature and Pressure in the Maritime Arctic, 1875-2000

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Igor V. Polyakov; Roman V. Bekryaev; Genrikh V. Alekseev; Uma S. Bhatt; Roger L. Colony; Mark A. Johnson; Alexander P. Maskshtas; David Walsh

    2003-01-01

    Arctic atmospheric variability during the industrial era (1875-2000) is assessed using spatially averaged surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) records. Air temperature and pressure display strong multidecadal variability on timescales of 50-80 yr [termed low-frequency oscillation (LFO)]. Associated with this variability, the Arctic SAT record shows two maxima: in the 1930s-40s and in recent decades, with two

  4. Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion for Temperature-Dependent Linear Spectra of Light Harvesting Aggregates

    E-print Network

    Gerhard Ritschel; Daniel Suess; Sebastian Möbius; Walter T. Strunz; Alexander Eisfeld

    2014-12-18

    Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion (NMQSD) has turned out to be an efficient method to calculate excitonic properties of aggregates composed of organic chromophores, taking into account the coupling of electronic transitions to vibrational modes of the chromophores. NMQSD is an open quantum system approach that incorporates environmental degrees of freedom (the vibrations in our case) in a stochastic way. We show in this paper that for linear optical spectra (absorption, circular dichroism) no stochastics is needed, even for finite temperatures. Thus, the spectra can be obtained by propagating a single trajectory. To this end we map a finite temperature environment to the zero temperature case using the so-called thermofield method. The resulting equations can then be solved efficiently by standard integrators.

  5. Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion for temperature-dependent linear spectra of light harvesting aggregates.

    PubMed

    Ritschel, Gerhard; Suess, Daniel; Möbius, Sebastian; Strunz, Walter T; Eisfeld, Alexander

    2015-01-21

    Non-Markovian Quantum State Diffusion (NMQSD) has turned out to be an efficient method to calculate excitonic properties of aggregates composed of organic chromophores, taking into account the coupling of electronic transitions to vibrational modes of the chromophores. NMQSD is an open quantum system approach that incorporates environmental degrees of freedom (the vibrations in our case) in a stochastic way. We show in this paper that for linear optical spectra (absorption, circular dichroism), no stochastics is needed, even for finite temperatures. Thus, the spectra can be obtained by propagating a single trajectory. To this end, we map a finite temperature environment to the zero temperature case using the so-called thermofield method. The resulting equations can then be solved efficiently by standard integrators. PMID:25612697

  6. The design and construction of a high temperature linear electromagnetic actuator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sidell, N.; Jewell, G. W.

    1999-04-01

    This article is concerned with the design and construction of a bidirectional linear actuator capable of operating in ambient temperatures of up to 800 °C with a rated force of 300 N and a stroke of ±0.5 mm. The electromagnetic design synthesis strategy employed is described with particular emphasis on those aspects most markedly affected by the high operating temperature, viz. the selection of an appropriate actuator topology and the relative merits of candidate soft magnetic alloys. The key role of detailed thermal modeling, particularly the importance of radiation as a heat transfer mechanism in such high temperature applications, is illustrated during the design synthesis. The construction of a prototype actuator is discussed, including the use of tape would conductors with ceramic insulation and Inconel 600 disk springs as bearing elements.

  7. Temperature and precipitation trends on the southern slopes of Mt Everest during the last twenty years (1994-2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salerno, Franco; Ma, Yaoming; Guyennon, Nicolas; Thakuri, Sudeep; Viviano, Gaetano; Romano, Emanuele; Vuillermoz, Elisa; Stocchi, Paolo; Tartari, Gianni

    2014-05-01

    The current uncertainties on Himalayan glacier shrinkage is mainly attributed to lack of meteorological measurements. The need for a fine scale investigation is particularly evident in the south slope of Mt Everest as it is one of the heavily glaciated parts of the Himalaya. To fill this knowledge gap the ''Pyramid'' station (5050 m) was created by Ev-K2-CNR Committee since the 1990. This meteorological observatory is located at the highest elevation at which weather data have ever been gathered in the region and thus the collected time series represents a valuable dataset to investigate the climate change in southern central Himalaya. However the remoteness and the harsh conditions of the region has determined over the years complications of operating of the automated weather stations (AWS) which do not have allowed to make long-term measurement coming from a unique station. In this context, we propose here a monthly temperature and precipitation reconstruction of the last twenty years (1994-2013) (and associated uncertainty) using quantile mapping and expectation maximization techniques using all the available in situ measurements. We observed an increase of +0.53±0.12°C which is comparable to that of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the trend is significant at 90%. In addition, the increasing trend is concentrated in the winter months. The implications of these findings are significant. The melting of glaciers is ascribed to the temperature increase during the summer, while we observe a stationary trend during the warmer months. Consequently, the role of precipitation and solar radiation becomes central in the climate change impact studies of the region. As regards to the precipitation trend, we observe a substantial decrease (about -16.2 ±1.1 mm y-1 of precipitation, p<0.001) both for winter and summer months. Our results agree with the findings from other research groups that refer to a weakening of the monsoon from the '70s. These results are compared to the time series of other 25 AWSs located at lower elevations (Nepali Department of Hydrology and Meteorology -DHM-) and one located on the north slope of Mt Everest (Chinese Academy of Science -CAS-). Afterwards, we evaluate the agreement of these meteorological land stations with reanalysis and gridded data in order to investigate the possible spatial extension of our observations. In general, this study has as its ultimate goal to use all our available figures in order to expand and streamline the current knowledge on climate drivers in southern central Himalaya and allow thus interpreting the observed impacts on cryoshere of the region.

  8. Mapping seasonal trends of electron temperature in the topside ionosphere based on DEMETER data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slominska, Ewa; Rothkaehl, Hanna

    2013-07-01

    The diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of the electron temperature in the Earth's topside ionosphere during relatively low solar activity period of 2005 - 2008 are investigated. In order to examine seasonal variations and morphology of the topside ionospheric plasma temperature, CNES micro-satellite DEMETER ISL data are used. Presented study is oriented on the dataset gathered in 2005 and 2008. Within conducted analysis, global maps of electron temperature for months of equinoxes and solstices have been developed. Furthermore, simultaneous studies on two-dimensional time series based on DEMETER measurements and predictions obtained with the IRI-2012 model supply examination of the topside ionosphere during recent deep solar minimum. Comparison with the IRI-2012 model reveals discrepancies between data and prediction, that are especially prominent during the periods of very low solar activity.

  9. Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation in Andorra (Pyrenees) from 1934 to 2008: quality check, homogenization and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, Pere; Prohom, Marc; Aguilar, Enric; Mestre, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of temperature and precipitation change and variability in high elevations is a difficult issue due to the lack of long term climatic series in those environments. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate how much high elevations follow the same climate evolution than low lying sites. In this work, using daily data from three Andorran weather stations (maintained by the power company Forces Elèctriques d'Andorra, FEDA), climate trends of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation were obtained for the period 1934-2008. The series are complete (99.9%) and are located in a mountainous area ranging from 1110 m to 1600 m asl. As a previous step to the analysis, data rescue, quality control and homogeneity tests were applied to the daily data. For quality control, several procedures were applied to identify and flag suspicious or erroneous data: duplicated days, outliers, excessive differences between consecutive days, flat line checking, days with maximum temperature lower that minimum temperature, and rounding analysis. All the station sites were visited to gather the available metadata. Concerning homogeneity, a homogeneous climate time series is defined as one where variations are caused only by variations in climate and not to non-climatic factors (i.e., changes in site location, instruments, station environment…). As a result, homogeneity of the series was inspected from several methodologies that have been used in a complementary and independent way in order to attain solid results: C3-SNHT (with software developed under the Spanish Government Grant CGL2007-65546-C03-02), and Caussinus-Mestre (C-M) approaches. In both cases, tests were applied to mean annual temperature and precipitation series, using Catalan and French series as references (provided respectively by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and Météo-France, in the framework of the Action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach, HOME). For precipitation, an additional test - RhTestV3 - was applied over the station data to ensure the homogeneity of the series. The analysis of the quality-controlled and homogenized maximum and minimum temperature series, shows an increase and statistically significant trend for the period 1934-2008. More precisely, the results are significant for both approaches (C3-SNHT and C-M) and for annual maximum temperature (0.12 and 0.10°C/decade, respectively), maximum summer temperature (0.25 and 0.17°C/decade, respectively), and minimum winter temperature (0.18 and 0.11°C/decade, respectively). The results were also obtained for the period 1971-2008. It is observed that the upward trend of the temperature has been reinforced in Andorra for this most recent period. Regarding precipitation, with the application of different tests, non-significant results for all the seasons and for the whole period (1934-2008) were obtained, so it cannot be concluded any increasing or decreasing trend. Nevertheless, preliminary results for the 1950-2008 period aim clearly towards a significant decrease of the annual total accumulation (-4.26mm/decade [being -7.80/-1.03, the confidence intervals at 95% level]), being especially relevant and also significant for the summer totals (-2.44 mm/decade [being -3.74/-1.13, the confidence intervals at 95% level]). The obtained trends for temperature agree with those obtained in Spain (Brunet et al., 2007), France (Spagnoli et al., 2002 and Maris et al., 2009) and Catalonia (Meteorological Service of Catalonia, 2008). Bibliography: - Brunet M, Jones PD, Sigró J, Saladié O, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Della-Marta PM, Lister D, Whalter A, López D. 2007. Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2005. Journal of Geophysical Research,, 112, D12117, doi:10.1029/2006JD008249 - Butlletí Anual d'Indicadors Climàtics, 2008 (BAIC,2008). Àrea de Climatologia, Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya. (http://www.meteo.cat) - Spagnoli B, Planton S, Mestre O, Déqué M, Moisselin, JM (2002). Detecting climate change

  10. Evaluation of trends in some temperature series at some Italian stations and their modelling by means of spectral methods: first results in the Latium coastal area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beltrano, M. C.; Testa, O.; Malvestuto, V.; Esposito, S.

    2010-09-01

    The investigation of the presence of signals indicating possible climatic changes in progress during the second half of the last century in the coastal area of the central Tyrrhenian sea has been carried out within the context of a research programme promoted by the Italian Science Academy (alias "the Academy of the XL") and financed by the Presidential Bureau. Our goal has been a better understanding of the behaviour of the minimum and maximum temperature variations in the period 1951-1999 and the modelling of their stochastic residuals through spectral analysis and the optimized construction of suitable autoregressive one-parameter processes. The meteorological data source for this research was the Italian "Agrometeorological National DataBase" (BDAN) of the Agrometeorological Informatics National System (SIAN). The spectral and stochastic analysis of meteorological data usually require full data sets without gaps, but, in BDAN, numerous data sets taken at stations located in the investigated area were incomplete. Thus, after the selection of an adequate number of stations, both representative of the region under study and characterized by a low number of data gaps, the first step was to fill all the gaps in the daily series using specific statistical techniques. After this preliminary treatment, we were left with seven temperature series that showed enough good characteristics in order to carry out an efficient modelling. Spectral analysis of minimum and maximum temperature series permitted to identify an auto-regressive one-parameter model well representing the stochastic residual of each series. With the aid of the complete model, consisting of a deterministic component (a linear trend plus two seasonal oscillations) and a stochastic residual, one can satisfactorily reconstruct the data in the past (climatic historical analysis) and to try a prediction of future values (forecasting). Thus the proposed model appears to represent a valid method to evaluate the whole variability of each climatic series in a multi-decadal time scale. As for the deterministic component, the Fourier analysis of minimum and maximum temperatures series showed for each station the existence, beside the secular linear trend, of a first oscillation (annual), and a secondary oscillation (half-yearly), each characterized by an amplitude and a phase. On the other hand, the stochastic residual can always be regarded as the superposition of an AR(1) process and a residual white noise. The lower half-yearly seasonal component, although small, can produce an amplitude attenuation or enhancement, and a phase advance or delay, among the climatic expected values and the standard meteorological sequences. The results of the stochastic analysis showed the presence during the period 1951-1999 of a discrete variability in the minimum and maximum temperature series along the Tyrrhenian coastal area, more intense for minimum temperatures. This behaviour can have direct and indirect consequences on natural vegetation and on the planning of agricultural activity, in particular for what concerns the evaluation of the quantity of the "available energy" for plant development and the assessment of "production sustainability" for the agricultural crops in terms of quantity, cost and quality of the agro products.

  11. The trends and dependencies between air and water temperatures in lakes in northern Poland in 19612000 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(1), 7987 (2004) EGU

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    2004-01-01

    The trends and dependencies between air and water temperatures in lakes in northern Poland between air and water temperatures in lakes in northern Poland from 19612000 Mieczyslaw Dabrowski1, Branch in Bialystok, ul. Ciolkowskiego 2/3, 15-245 Bialystok, Poland 2 Nicolaus Copernicus University

  12. The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y. S.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Haynes, P. H.; Dee, D. P.; Read, W. J.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L. W.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J. R.; Bernath, P. F.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer from artifacts that need to be resolved in order to answer the question whether the large-scale flow and temperature field is sufficient to explain water entering the stratosphere.

  13. Ion temperature profile stiffness: non-linear gyrokinetic simulations and comparison with experiment

    E-print Network

    Citrin, J; Haverkort, J W; Hogeweij, G M D; Jenko, F; Mantica, P; Pueschel, M J; Told, D; contributors, JET-EFDA

    2013-01-01

    Recent experimental observations at JET show evidence of reduced ion temperature profile stiffness at low magnetic shear (s) in the presence of flow shear. Non-linear gyrokinetic simulations are performed, aiming to investigate the physical mechanism behind the observations. The sensitivity of profile stiffness to the variations of plasma parameters experimentally observed when transitioning to the low-stiffness regime is assessed. It is found that non-linear electromagnetic effects, even at low beta_e, can significantly reduce the profile stiffness, although not by a degree sufficient to explain the experimental observations. The effect of toroidal flow shear itself is not predicted by the simulations to lead to a significant reduction in flux due to significant parallel gradient velocity destabilisation. For the majority of discharges studied, the simulated and experimental ion heat flux values do agree within reasonable variations of input parameters around the experimental uncertainties. However, no such ...

  14. High temperature electronics: R&D challenges and trends in materials, packaging and interconnection technology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. H. Amalu; N. N. Ekere; R. S. Bhatti

    2009-01-01

    The development of new high temperature electronics (HTE)\\/systems is the key to achieving high reliability safety critical operations in aerospace, automotive and well-logging applications. Reliability issues associated with the operation of HTE devices have been shown to account for some of the recent aircraft crashes as well as failures of the electronic control Unit in modern vehicles. The reliability of

  15. An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere

    E-print Network

    Pielke, Roger A.

    Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report [Karl et al., 2006]. Santer et al. [2005] presented three in the surface temperature data that were not considered in the CCSP report [see Hale et al., 2006; Pielke et al., 2007a]. Indeed, for the latitudes 20°N to 20°S, the CCSP acknowledges that an unexplained difference

  16. Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    B. D. Santer; T. M. L. Wigley; C. Doutriaux; J. S. Boyle; J. E. Hansen; P. D. Jones; G. A. Meehl; E. Roeckner; S. Sengupta; K. E. Taylor

    2001-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to remove the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from time series of globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures. Such work has largely ignored the nonzero correlation between volcanic signals and ENSO. Here we account for this collinearity using an iterative procedure. We remove estimated volcano and ENSO signals from

  17. Twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and

    E-print Network

    Broccoli, Anthony J.

    a somewhat different focus, since the magnitude of natural radiative forcing is comparable to the human radiation. Comparisons with observations reveal that the addition of the natural forcings (solar in global mean surface air temperature from the ensemble of experiments with all four forcings are very

  18. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring warming and fall cooling rates. Trends in all of the parameters were examined after low-pass filtering using a 10-point convolution filter ( n=10 years) and regime shifts were identified using the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) method. The analysis shows some difference between regions in the timing of minimum SST with minima being reached 1 month earlier in the south (February) relative to more northern regions (March). Regional annual SST range decreased in a seaward direction. Amplitude of summer warming and the length of summer have shown fluctuations with recent years showing stronger warming and longer summers but generally not exceeding past levels. Overall, the difference in SST range, with recent larger values may be the most significant finding of this work. SST range changes have the potential to disrupt species important to local fisheries due to combinations of differing temperature tolerances, changes in reproduction potential, and changes in the distributional range of species.

  19. Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Souleymane Fall; Dev Niyogi; Alexander Gluhovsky; Roger A. Pielke Sr.; Eugenia Kalnay; Gilbert Rochon

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of surface temperature trends to land use land cover change (LULC) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) approach. We estimated the OMR trends for the 1979-2003 period from the US Historical Climate Network (USHCN), and the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). We used a new mean square differences (MSDs)-based

  20. Analysis of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in Athens from 1897 to 2001 with emphasis on the last decade: trends, warm events, and cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Founda, D.; Papadopoulos, K. H.; Petrakis, M.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Good, P.

    2004-12-01

    The 105-year (1897-2001) surface air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) has been analyzed to determine indications of significant deviations from long-term average features in the city of Athens. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency towards warmer years, with significantly warmer summer and spring periods and slightly warmer winters (an increase of 1.23 and 0.34 °C has been observed in the mean summer and mean winter temperature, respectively). The tendency is more pronounced for the summer and spring maximum temperature, but marginal for the minimum temperature of the cold season. On a monthly basis, a statistically significant (at the 95th confidence level) warming trend has been observed in the average maximum temperature of May and June. The trend analysis for the last decade of the record (1992-2001) revealed a significant increase for both warm and cold seasons, yet maximum and minimum temperature. Extreme temperatures (high/low temperatures above/below a certain threshold value) and extreme events (prolonged extreme temperatures) have also been studied. The number of hot days as well as the frequency of occurrence and duration of warm events have significantly increased during the last decade, while a negative trend is observed in the frequency of low temperatures and the duration of cold events especially after 1960.

  1. Cluster solver for dynamical mean-field theory with linear scaling in inverse temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatami, E.; Lee, C. R.; Bai, Z. J.; Scalettar, R. T.; Jarrell, M.

    2010-05-01

    Dynamical mean-field theory and its cluster extensions provide a very useful approach for examining phase transitions in model Hamiltonians and, in combination with electronic structure theory, constitute powerful methods to treat strongly correlated materials. The key advantage to the technique is that, unlike competing real-space methods, the sign problem is well controlled in the Hirsch-Fye (HF) quantum Monte Carlo used as an exact cluster solver. However, an important computational bottleneck remains; the HF method scales as the cube of the inverse temperature, ? . This often makes simulations at low temperatures extremely challenging. We present here a method based on determinant quantum Monte Carlo which scales linearly in ? , with a quadratic term that comes in to play for the number of time slices larger than hundred, and demonstrate that the sign problem is identical to HF.

  2. Temperature trends in desert cities: how vegetation and urbanization affect the urban heat island dynamics in hyper-arid climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marpu, P. R.; Lazzarini, M.; Molini, A.; Ghedira, H.

    2013-12-01

    Urban areas represent a unique micro-climatic system, mainly characterized by scarcity of vegetation and ground moisture, an albedo strictly dependent on building materials and urban forms, high heat capacity, elevated pollutants emissions, anthropogenic heat production, and a characteristic boundary layer dynamics. For obvious historical reasons, the first to be addressed in the literature were the effects of urbanization on the local microclimate of temperate regions, where most of the urban development took place in the last centuries. Here micro-climatic characteristics all contribute to the warming of urban areas, also known as 'urban heat island' effect, and are expected to crucially impact future energy and water consumption, air quality, and human health. However, rapidly increasing urbanization rates in arid and hyper-arid developing countries could soon require more attention towards studying the effects of urban development on arid climates, which remained mainly unexplored till now. In this talk we investigate the climatology of urban heat islands in seven highly urbanized desert cities based on day and night temporal trends of land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired using MODIS satellite during 2000-2012. Urban and rural areas are distinguished by analyzing the high-resolution temporal variability and averaged monthly values of LST, NDVI and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) for all the seven cities and adjacent sub-urban areas. Different thermal behaviors were observed at the selected sites, also including temperature mitigation and inverse urban heat island, and are here discussed together with detailed analysis of the corresponding trends.

  3. Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

  4. Reproducibility of Programmed-Temperature Retention Indices under Average Linear Velocity Carrier Gas Control of GC and GC–MS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. Miyagawa; K. Nakagawa; K. Kadokami

    2011-01-01

    Programmed-temperature retention indices (PTRIs) are useful for the identification and quantification of chemicals by means\\u000a of GC and GC\\/MS. To obtain reproducible PTRIs, we studied the influence of average linear velocity and column length under\\u000a the constant average linear velocity control (CVC) using 55 pesticides and 33 fatty acid methyl esters. The PTRIs decreased\\u000a with increasing average linear velocity, and

  5. Vortex creep and the internal temperature of neutron stars - Linear and nonlinear response to a glitch

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alpar, M. A.; Cheng, K. S.; Pines, D.

    1989-01-01

    The dynamics of pinned superfluid in neutron stars is determined by the thermal 'creep' of vortices. Vortex creep can respond to changes in the rotation rate of the neutron star crust and provide the observed types of dynamical relaxation following pulsar glitches. It also gives rise to energy dissipation, which determines the thermal evolution of pulsars once the initial heat content has been radiated away. The different possible regimes of vortex creep are explored, and it is shown that the nature of the dynamical response of the pinned superfluid evolves with a pulsar's age. Younger pulsars display a linear regime, where the response is linear in the initial perturbation and is a simple exponential relaxation as a function of time. A nonliner response, with a characteristic nonlinear dependence on the initial perturbation, is responsible for energy dissipation and becomes the predominant mode of response as the pulsar ages. The transition from the linear to the nonlinear regime depends sensitively on the temperature of the neutron star interior. A preliminary review of existing postglitch observations is given within this general evolutionary framework.

  6. Effective temperatures, angular diameters, distances and linear radii for 160 O and B stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Underhill, A. B.; Divan, L.; Prevot-Burnichon, M.-L.; Doazan, V.

    1979-01-01

    This paper discusses effective temperatures, angular diameters, distances, and linear diameters that have been determined for 160 O and B stars on the basis of published UV spectrophotometry, visible and near-IR intermediate-band photometry, and model-atmosphere fluxes. The results are compared with previous measurements and calculations for main-sequence and giant O and B stars. It is found that: (1) the flux effective temperatures of O and B supergiants are systematically lower than those of main-sequence and giant stars of the same subtype; (2) the effective temperatures and radii of Beta Cep stars are the same as those of nonvariable stars of the same spectral type; (3) Be stars that do not have two Balmer jumps have effective temperatures very similar to those of normal B stars of the same subtype; (4) O and B stars increase in size from the main sequence to supergiants; and (5) late B supergiants are approximately twice as large as O9 supergiants.

  7. Distinguishing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases on Arctic stratospheric ozone and temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Solomon, Susan

    2014-04-01

    Whether stratospheric cooling due to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG) could increase the depletion of Arctic stratospheric ozone has been the subject of scientific and public attention for decades. Here we provide evidence that changes in the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), not WMGHG, have been the primary driver of observed Arctic lower stratospheric trends in both ozone and temperature. We do so by analyzing polar cap ozone and temperature trends in reanalysis data: these clearly suggest that both trends are mainly driven by ODS in the lower stratosphere. This observation-based finding is supported by results from a stratosphere-resolving chemistry-climate model driven with time-varying ODS and WMGHG, specified in isolation and in combination. Taken together, these results provide strong evidence that ODS are the main driver of changes in the Arctic lower stratospheric temperatures and ozone, whereas WMGHG are the primary driver of changes in the upper stratosphere.

  8. Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinco, Thelma A.; de Guzman, Rosalina G.; Hilario, Flaviana D.; Wilson, David M.

    2014-08-01

    Observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature data from 34 synoptic weather stations in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010 were subjected to trend analysis which revealed an overall warming tendency compared to the normal mean values for the period 1961-1990. This warming trend can be observed in the annual mean temperatures, daily minimum mean temperatures and to a lesser extent, daily maximum mean temperatures. Precipitation and temperature extremes for the period 1951-2010 were also analysed relative to the mean 1961-1990 baseline values. Some stations (Cotabato, Iloilo, Laoag and Tacloban,) show increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall events which are significant at the 95% level with none of the stations showing decreasing trends. The frequency of daily temperature maximum above the 99th percentile (hot days) and nights at the 1st percentile (cold nights) suggests that both days and nights in particular are becoming warmer. Such indicators of a warming trend and increase in extreme events in the Philippines are discussed in the context of similar national, regional (Asia Pacific) and global studies. The relevance of such empirically based climatology studies, particularly for nations such as the Philippines which are increasingly vulnerable to the multiple impacts of global climate change, is also considered.

  9. Temperature Climatology and Trend Estimates of The Lower Troposphere - Upper Stratosphere Region As Observed At A Southern Subtropical Latitude, Durban, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bencherif, H.; Portafaix, T.; Morel, B.; Diab, R.; Keckhut, P.

    Trends in temperature in the UTLS region are not well known, meanly in the SH. In fact, the rawinsonde network is chiefly a northern hemisphere. Slightly more than 15Most of recent temperature trend studies have been performed for the 25-70 km alti- tude range, using Indian, American, Japanese and Russian rocketsondes [Mohanaku- mar, 1994 ; Dunkerton et al., 1998 ; Keckhut et al., 1999a, 1999b ; Kokin and Ly- senko, 1994], and French lidar measurements [Hauchecorne et al., 1991 ; Keckhut et al., 1995]. In the UTLS region many authors have performed trend analyses from some large ozonesonde database obtained on land areas of the NH [Miller et al., 1992 ; Logan, 1994 ; Harris et al., 1997]. However, the later studies have focused chiefly on ozone trends. From twenty years regular upper-air radiosonding dataset from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), climatological evolutions and trends of tem- perature in UTLS over Durban (South Africa) are investigated. Climatology shows inter-annual temperature anomalies over the subtropical Durban site. Those temper- ature anomalies have almost the same values and the same vertical distribution in comparison with previous studies derived for tropical latitudes. Trend analysis high- lights a cooling in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In agreement with previous studies, a maximum cooling trend of 1.09 s´ 0.27 K per decade is observed at the tropopause level. The mean SAWS tropospheric and stratospheric trends (250-100 and 100-30 hPa) are -0.18 s´ 0.20 and -0.85 s´ 0.23 K per decade, respectively.

  10. A Statistical Framework for Calculating and Assessing Compositional Linear Trends Within Fault Zones: A Case Study of the NE Block of the Clark Segment, San Jacinto Fault, California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rockwell, Brian G.; Girty, Gary H.; Rockwell, Thomas K.

    2014-11-01

    Utilizing chemical data derived from the various fault zone architectural components of the Clark strand of the San Jacinto fault, southern California, USA, we apply for the first time non-central principal component analysis to calculate a compositional linear trend within molar A-CN-K space. In this procedure A-CN-K are calculated as the molar proportions of Al2O3 (A), CaO* + Na2O (CN), and K2O (K) in the sum of molar Al2O3, Na2O, CaO*, and K2O. CaO* is the molar CaO after correction for apatite. We then derive translational invariant chemical alteration intensity factors, t, for each architectural component through orthogonal projection of analyzed samples onto the compositional linear trend. The chemical alteration intensity factor t determines the relative change in composition compared to the original state (i.e., the composition of the altered wall rocks). It is dependent on the degree of intensity to which the process or processes responsible for the change in composition of each architectural component has been active. These processes include shearing, fragmentation, fluid flow, and generation of frictional heat. Non-central principal component analysis indicates that principal component 1 explains 99.7 % of the spread of A-CN-K data about the calculated compositional linear trend (i.e., the variance). The significance level for the overall one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is 0.0001. Such a result indicates that at least one significant difference across the group of means of t values is different at the 95 % confidence level. Following completion of the overall one-way ANOVA, the difference in means t test indicated that the mean of the t values for the fault core are different than the means obtained from the transition and damage zones. In contrast, at the 95 % confidence level, the means of the t values for the transition and damage zones are not statistically distinguishable. The results of XRD work completed during this study revealed that the <2 µm fraction is composed primarily of illite/smectite with ~15 % illite in the damage zone, of illite/smectite with ~30 % illite in the transition zone, and of discreet illite with very minor smectite in the fault core. These changes parallel the increasing values of the chemical alteration intensity factors (i.e., t). Based on the above results, it is speculated that when fault zones are derived from tonalitic wall rocks at depths of ~400 ± 100 m, the onset of the illite/smectite to illite conversion will occur when t values exceed 0.20 ± 0.12, the average chemical alteration intensity factor calculated for the transition zone. Under such conditions during repeated rupturing events, frictional heat is produced and acidic fluids with elevated temperatures (? ~125 °C) are flushed through the fault core. Over time, the combination of shearing, fragmentation, and frictionally elevated temperatures eventually overcomes the kinetic barrier for the illite/smectite to illite transition. Such settings and processes are unique to fault zones, and as a result, they represent an underappreciated setting for the development of illite from illite/smectite. The success of non-central principal component analysis in this environment offers the first statistically rigorous methodology for establishing the existence of compositional linear trends in fault zones. This method also derives quantifiable alteration intensity factors that could potentially be used to compare the intensity of alteration at different segments of a fault, as well as offer a foundation to interpret the potential driving forces for said alteration and differences therein.

  11. Temperature driven p-n-p type conduction switching materials: current trends and future directions.

    PubMed

    Guin, Satya N; Biswas, Kanishka

    2015-04-28

    Modern technological inventions have been going through a "renaissance" period. Development of new materials and understanding of fundamental structure-property correlations are the important steps to move further for advanced technologies. In modern technologies, inorganic semiconductors are the leading materials which are extensively used for different applications. In the current perspective, we present discussion on an important class of materials that show fascinating p-n-p type conduction switching, which can have potential applications in diodes or transistor devices that operate reversibly upon temperature or voltage change. We highlight the key concepts, present the current fundamental understanding and show the latest developments in the field of p-n-p type conduction switching. Finally, we point out the major challenges and opportunities in this field. PMID:25812630

  12. Binary homogeneous nucleation: Temperature and relative humidity fluctuations and non-linearity

    SciTech Connect

    Easter, R.C. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Peters, L.K. [Kentucky Univ., Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses binary homogeneous nucleation involving H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} and water vapor is thought to be the primary mechanism for new particle formation in the marine boundary layer. Temperature, relative humidity, and partial pressure of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor are the most important parameters in fixing the binary homogeneous nucleation rate in the H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}/H{sub 2}O system. The combination of thermodynamic calculations and laboratory experiments indicates that this rate varies roughly as the tenth power of the saturation ratio of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor. Furthermore, the vapor pressure of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} is a function of temperature, and similar dependencies of the binary homogeneous nucleation rate on relative humidity can be noted as well. These factors thus introduce strong non-linearities into the system, and fluctuations of temperature, relative humidity, and H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor concentrations about mean values may strongly influence the nucleation rate measured in the atmosphere.

  13. Binary homogeneous nucleation: Temperature and relative humidity fluctuations and non-linearity

    SciTech Connect

    Easter, R.C. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Peters, L.K. (Kentucky Univ., Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering)

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses binary homogeneous nucleation involving H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] and water vapor is thought to be the primary mechanism for new particle formation in the marine boundary layer. Temperature, relative humidity, and partial pressure of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor are the most important parameters in fixing the binary homogeneous nucleation rate in the H[sub 2]SO[sub 4]/H[sub 2]O system. The combination of thermodynamic calculations and laboratory experiments indicates that this rate varies roughly as the tenth power of the saturation ratio of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor. Furthermore, the vapor pressure of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] is a function of temperature, and similar dependencies of the binary homogeneous nucleation rate on relative humidity can be noted as well. These factors thus introduce strong non-linearities into the system, and fluctuations of temperature, relative humidity, and H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor concentrations about mean values may strongly influence the nucleation rate measured in the atmosphere.

  14. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.

    2012-11-01

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

  15. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    PubMed

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast. PMID:25743152

  16. Vector and axial-vector mesons at nonzero temperature within a gauged linear sigma model

    SciTech Connect

    Strueber, Stefan; Rischke, Dirk H. [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Max-von-Laue-Str. 1, D-60438 Frankfurt/Main (Germany); Institut fuer Theoretische Physik and Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Max-von-Laue-Str. 1, D-60438 Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2008-04-15

    We consider vector and axial-vector mesons in the framework of a gauged linear sigma model with chiral U(N{sub f}){sub R}xU(N{sub f}){sub L} symmetry. For N{sub f}=2, we investigate the behavior of the chiral condensate and the meson masses as a function of temperature by solving a system of coupled Dyson-Schwinger equations derived via the 2PI formalism in double-bubble approximation. We find that the inclusion of vector and axial-vector mesons tends to sharpen the chiral transition. Within our approximation scheme, the mass of the {rho} meson increases by about 100 MeV towards the chiral transition.

  17. Using temperature, voltage, and\\/or speed measurements to improve trending of induction motor RMS currents in process control and diagnostics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carl J. Dister; Rich Schiferl

    1998-01-01

    Trending RMS current in an induction motor is often performed in industrial processes because of the availability and easy measurement of the parameter. This current can deviate widely with temperature, voltage and speed, making it difficult to determine process changes that are to be detected. Current deviations due to normal operation of the system can be corrected by applying the

  18. Non-Linear Association between Exposure to Ambient Temperature and Children’s Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Beijing, China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Meimei; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu; Jia, Lei; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was listed as a notifiable communicable disease in 2008 and is an emerging public health problem in China, especially for children. However, few data are available on the risk assessment of the potential reasons for HFMD in Beijing. This study examined the association of temperature with the incidence of children’s HFMD in Beijing at the daily scale for the first time. Methods A newly developed case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the delayed and cumulative associations of daily temperature with gender- and age-specific HFMD in Beijing, China, during 2010–2012. Relative humidity, day of the week, public holiday, season and long-term trends were controlled in the model. Results Among the total of 113,475 cases, the ratio between males and females was 1.52:1. HFMD was more prevalent in May-July. The temperature-HFMD relationships were non-linear in most age groups except for children aged 6–15 years, with a peak at 25.0~27.5°C. The high-temperature risks were greater, appeared earlier and lasted longer than the low-temperature risks. The relative risks for female children and those aged 6–15 years were higher than those among other groups. Conclusion Rising temperatures increased the incidence of children’s HFMD, with the largest association at 25.0~27.5°C. Females and children aged 6–15 years were more vulnerable to changes in temperature with regard to the transmission of HFMD than males and other age groups, respectively. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other populations. PMID:26010147

  19. Abrupt changes, multidecadal variability and long-term trends in sea surface temperature and sea level datasets within the southeastern Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Manuel; Fontán, Almudena; Esnaola, Ganix; Collins, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Multidecadal variability and long-term trends of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Level (SL) datasets for the southeastern Bay of Biscay have been examined. The SST dataset (Aquarium of San Sebastián), measured on a nearly daily basis, extends from 1947 to 2010. The daily SL data utilised are those from Santander (IEO tide gauge network) and from St. Jean de Luz (SHOM), spanning the periods 1943-2004 and 1964-1997, respectively. This paper presents an approach for the extraction of multidecadal variability and long-term trends. First of all, the KZA (Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive) filter was used to detect possible discontinuities in time-series. Subsequently, the seasonal and multidecadal variability was identified by spectral analysis and further quantified by least squares fitting. Finally, prior to the trend determination, the long-term natural variability was removed. The results revealed significant contribution of the annual component to the SST and SL, with a weaker contribution of the semiannual signal. The sea level air pressure and long-term tides also contributed to the SL variability. The estimated trends were less than those obtained by other authors. The analysis revealed no trend in the SST and the Jean de Luz SL series, whilst an increasing trend was detected for the Santander SL dataset.

  20. Statistics of regional surface temperatures post year 1900. Long-range versus short-range dependence, and significance of warming trends.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Martin; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Fredriksen, Hege-Beate

    2015-04-01

    We explore the statistics of instrumental surface temperature records on 5°× 5°, 2°× 2°, and equal-area grids. In particular, we compute the significance of determinstic trends against two parsimonious null models; auto-regressive processes of order 1, AR(1), and fractional Gaussian noises (fGn's). Both of these two null models contain a memory parameter which quantifies the temporal climate variability, with white noise nested in both classes of models. Estimates of the persistence parameters show significant positive serial correlation for most grid cells, with higher persistence over occeans compared to land areas. This shows that, in a trend detection framework, we need to take into account larger spurious trends than what follows from the frequently used white noise assumption. Tested against the fGn null hypothesis, we find that ~ 68% (~ 47%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%) significance level. If we assume an AR(1) null hypothesis instead, then the result is that ~ 94% (~ 88%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%) significance level. For both null models, the locations where we do not find significant trends are mostly the ENSO regions and the North-Atlantic. We try to discriminate between the two null models by means of likelihood-ratios. If we at each grid point choose the null model preferred by the model selection test, we find that ~ 82% (~ 73%) of the time series have significant trends at the 5% (1%). We conclude that there is emerging evidence of significant warming trends also at regional scales, although with a much lower signal-to-noise ratio compared to global mean temperatures. Another finding is that many temperature records are consistent with error models for internal variability that exhibit long-range dependence, whereas the temperature fluctuations of the tropical oceans are strongly influenced by the ENSO, and therefore seemingly more consistent with random processes with short-range dependence. Four different data products, HADCRUT4, NOAA mlost, GISS and Berkely Earth, are analyzed in this project, with similar results in all cases.

  1. A temperature and mass dependence of the linear Boltzmann collision operator from group theory point of view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saveliev, Vladimir

    1996-12-01

    The Lie group of the transformations affecting the parameters of the linear Boltzmann collision operator such as temperature of background gas and ratio of masses of colliding particles and molecules is discovered. The group also describes the conservation laws for collisions and main symmetries of the collision operator. New algebraic properties of the collision operator are derived. Transformations acting on the variables and parameters and leaving the linear Boltzmann kinetic equation invariant are found. For the constant collision frequency the integral representation of solutions for nonuniform case in terms of the distribution function of particles drifting in a gas with zero temperature is deduced. The new exact relaxation solutions are obtained too.

  2. An Analysis of Simulated and Observed Global Mean Near-Surface Air Temperature Anomalies from 1979 to 1999: Trends and Attribution of Causes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKay, R. M.; Ko, M. K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The 1979 - 1999 response of the climate system to variations in solar spectral irradiance is estimated by comparing the global averaged surface temperature anomalies simulated by a 2D (two dimensional) energy balance climate model to observed temperature anomalies. We perform a multiple regression of southern oscillation index and the individual model responses to solar irradiance variations, stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone trends, and greenhouse gases onto each of five near-surface temperature anomaly data sets. We estimate the observed difference in global mean near surface air temperature attributable to the solar irradiance difference between solar maximum and solar minimum to be between 0.06 and 0.11 K, and that 1.1 - 3.8% of the total variance in monthly mean near-surface air temperature data is attributable to nations in solar spectral irradiance. For the five temperature data sets used in our analysis, the trends in raw monthly mean temperature anomaly data have a large range, spanning a factor of 3 from 0.06 to 0.17 K/decade. However. our analysis suggests that trends in monthly temperature anomalies attributable to the combination of greenhouse gas, stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate aerosol variations are much more consistent among data sets, ranging from 0.16 to 0.24 K/decade. Our model results suggest that roughly half of the warming from greenhouse gases is cancelled by the cooling from changes in stratospheric ozone. Tropospheric sulfate aerosol loading in the present day atmospheric contributes significantly to the net radiative forcing of the present day climate system. However, because the change in magnitude and latitudinal distribution of tropospheric sulfate aerosol has been small over the past 20 years, the change in the direct radiative forcing attributable to changes in aerosol loading over this time is also small.

  3. Studies on Mixed Slab-Toroidal Electron Temperature Gradient Mode Instabilities in the Columbia Linear Machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbaky, Abed

    This thesis investigates the behavior of electron temperature gradient (ETG) driven instabilities in the Columbia Linear Machine (CLM). Building on prior work in CLM, the primary goal of this research is to produce, identify, and illuminate the basic physics of these instabilities, and explore the behavior of these instabilities under the presence of trapping and curved magnetic field lines. The first part of this thesis is focused on studying the saturated ETG mode, and the general behavior of the mode under varying levels of magnetic curvature. Measuring ETG modes can be problematic since they have large real frequencies, fast growth rates (~MHz) and small spatial scales, but carefully designed probe diagnostics can overcome these limits. In order to produce curved magnetic field lines, we modified CLM to operate with an internal movable mirror coil. We determined the temperature and density profiles under varying curvature, and measured changes in the mode structure and frequency. We found small changes in the azimuthal/poloidal structure and frequency, characterized by an increase in the m-number (mslab˜10-13 and Deltam˜1), along with small changes in the axial/toroidal structure (k??, curvature < k??, slab) and frequency (ocurvature < oslab). We also present one of the first experimental scaling of ETG mode amplitude as a function of curvature. Our key finding was a that overall levels of saturated ETG mode amplitude had a modest increase (˜1.5x) which is slightly larger than existing theory and simulations would predict, and that the power density and amplitude of individual mode peaks can increase more dramatically (˜2-3x amplitude). The second part of this thesis studies the radial transport for saturated ETG modes in CLM. ETG modes are believed to be a significant source of anomalous electron energy transport in plasmas, and a better understanding of these modes and the transport they drive across magnetic field lines is of particular interest for advanced tokamaks and future fusion reactors, where these is a continued push for energy efficiency. A specially designed triple probe has been developed, which can measure fluctuations in temperature and potential simultaneously, with a high frequency and special resolution suitable for ETG studies. We present an experimental scaling of radial transport as a function of magnetic field curvature, again one of the first of its kind. Our findings indicate a modest increase in radial transport (˜2x) with increased curvature, but unlike saturated mode amplitudes, we find that radial transport saturates for higher levels of curvature in CLM.

  4. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

    2009-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  5. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  6. Analysis of recent trends in mean maximum and minimum temperatures in a region of the NW of Spain (Castilla y León)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Del Río, S.; Fraile, R.; Herrero, L.; Penas, A.

    2007-09-01

    The present paper is an analysis of mean maximum and minimum temperatures carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales examining the data collected at 171 meteorological stations over a region in the North West of Spain (Castilla y León) for the period 1961-1997. Various statistical tools were used to detect and describe significant trends in these data. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, and the statistical significance was determined by means of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The pattern obtained is quite similar for mean maximum and minimum temperatures with increases in all months of the year, and in the annual series. The seasonal series corresponding to winter and summer also followed this same pattern. Spring and autumn were found to be more irregular. Because maximum temperature increased at a higher rate than minimum temperature in this period, an increase in the annual diurnal temperature range (DTR) was observed. The correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the regional maximum and minimum temperatures and DTR series for the period 1961-1997 have also be studied in this paper.

  7. Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. Feidas; T. Makrogiannis; E. Bora-Senta

    2004-01-01

    Summary In this study, trends of annual and seasonal surface air temperature time series were examined for 20 stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data for the period 1980–2001. Two statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting the starting year of possible climatic

  8. Long-term trends observed in the middle atmosphere temperatures using ground based LIDARs and satellite borne measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishore, P.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Velicogna, I.; Sivakumar, V.; Bencherif, H.; Clemesha, B. R.; Simonich, D. M.; Batista, P. P.; Beig, G.

    2014-03-01

    Long-term data available from Lidar systems located at three different locations namely São José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2° S, 45.8° W), Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) and Reunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E) have been used to investigate the long-term variations like Annual, Semi-annual, Quasi-biennial, El Nino Southern Oscillation and solar cycle. These oscillations are also extracted from simultaneous satellite borne measurements of HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instrument onboard UARS and SABER onboard TIMED over these stations making largest time series covering the entire middle atmosphere. A good agreement is found between the LIDAR and satellite-derived amplitudes and phases between 30 and 65 km altitude, which suggests that satellite measurements can be used to investigate the long-term trends globally. Latter measurements are extended to 80 km in order to further investigate these oscillations. Large difference in the amplitudes between the eastern pacific and western pacific is noticed in these oscillations. Changing from cooling trends in the stratosphere to warming trends in the mesosphere occurs more or less at altitude around 70 km altitude and this result agrees well with that observed by satellite measurements reported in the literature. The peak in the cooling trend does not occur at a fixed altitude in the stratosphere however maximum warming trend is observed around 75 km at all the stations. The observed long-term trends including various oscillations are compared with that reported with various techniques.

  9. A TREND BETWEEN COLD DEBRIS DISK TEMPERATURE AND STELLAR TYPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF WIDE-ORBIT PLANETS

    SciTech Connect

    Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L. [Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Montiel, Edward, E-mail: ballerin@email.arizona.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA. (United States)

    2013-09-20

    Cold debris disks trace the limits of planet formation or migration in the outer regions of planetary systems, and thus have the potential to answer many of the outstanding questions in wide-orbit planet formation and evolution. We characterized the infrared excess spectral energy distributions of 174 cold debris disks around 546 main-sequence stars observed by both the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph and the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer. We found a trend between the temperature of the inner edges of cold debris disks and the stellar type of the stars they orbit. This argues against the importance of strictly temperature-dependent processes (e.g., non-water ice lines) in setting the dimensions of cold debris disks. Also, we found no evidence that delayed stirring causes the trend. The trend may result from outward planet migration that traces the extent of the primordial protoplanetary disk, or it may result from planet formation that halts at an orbital radius limited by the efficiency of core accretion.

  10. A linear regression model for predicting PNW estuarine temperatures in a changing climate

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pacific Northwest coastal regions, estuaries, and associated ecosystems are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, especially to changes in nearshore water temperature. While predictive climate models simulate future air temperatures, no such projections exist for...

  11. The imaging of nano and micro globules of short linear thermo responsive polyacrylamides formed above the lower critical solution temperature

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Raùl Thaoces Soto; Daniel Zufferey; Nicolas Schmidt; Fabian Fischer

    2007-01-01

    An imaging method has been developed to examine thermo responsive polymer coagulates by optical and electron microscopy. Poly-N-isopropylacrylamide (PNIPAM), poly-N-dimethylacrylamide (PDMAM) and a 1:1 PNIPAM–PDMAM copolymer were encapsulated in a gelatin matrix as coagulates above the lower critical solution temperature (LCST), and subsequently examined by optical and electron microscopy. The linear macromolecules PNIPAM and PDMAM were synthesized by chain transfer

  12. Recent Patterns of Antarctic Surface Air Temperature Trends in the Context of Natural Variability, as Simulated by the CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; de O Lobo, A.

    2014-12-01

    One of the hallmarks of climate change in recent decades has been the dramatic warming of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), whereas the Eastern AIS (EAIS) has experienced a slight, and insignificant cooling trend. Here we examine the extent to which this spatial asymmetry in Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends might be a response to anthropogenic climate forcings, such as greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion, or rather the manifestation of large natural climate variability. We compare the observed annual mean Antarctic SAT over the 1960-2005 and 1979-2005 time periods to SAT data from 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical integrations. We find that the CMIP5 multi-model mean shows near-homogeneous warming throughout Antarctica, i.e. it lacks the observed spatial asymmetry between WAIS and EAIS. As the multi-model mean is, by construction, the forced response, we conclude that the observed spatial asymmetry in Antarctic SAT results from natural variability, which acts to mask the anthropogenic warming in the EAIS region, while amplifying the WAIS warming. In addition, contrasting historical (i.e., forced) and pre-industrial (i.e., control) integrations from these same 40 CMIP5 models, we show that the observed total Antarctic and EAIS SAT trends fall well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. In contrast, we do find that the WAIS SAT trend is more likely driven by anthropogenic forcings.

  13. High-precision abundances of elements in solar twin stars. Trends with stellar age and elemental condensation temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissen, P. E.

    2015-07-01

    Context. High-precision determinations of abundances of elements in the atmospheres of the Sun and solar twin stars indicate that the Sun has an unusually low ratio between refractory and volatile elements. This has led to the suggestion that the relation between abundance ratios, [X/Fe], and elemental condensation temperature, TC, can be used as a signature of the existence of terrestrial planets around a star. Aims: HARPS spectra with S/N ? 600 for 21 solar twin stars in the solar neighborhood and the Sun (observed via reflected light from asteroids) are used to determine very precise (? ~ 0.01 dex) differential abundances of elements in order to see how well [X/Fe] is correlated with TC and other parameters such as stellar age. Methods: Abundances of C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn, and Y are derived from equivalent widths of weak and medium-strong spectral lines using MARCS model atmospheres with parameters determined from the excitation and ionization balance of Fe lines. Non-LTE effects are considered and taken into account for some of the elements. In addition, precise (? ? 0.8 Gyr) stellar ages are obtained by interpolating between Yonsei-Yale isochrones in the log g - Teff diagram. Results: It is confirmed that the ratio between refractory and volatile elements is lower in the Sun than in most of the solar twins (only one star has the same [X/Fe]-TC distribution as the Sun), but for many stars, the relation between [X/Fe] and TC is not well defined. For several elements there is an astonishingly tight correlation between [X/Fe] and stellar age with amplitudes up to ~0.20 dex over an age interval of eight Gyr in contrast to the lack of correlation between [Fe/H] and age. While [Mg/Fe] increases with age, the s-process element yttrium shows the opposite behavior meaning that [Y/Mg] can be used as a sensitive chronometer for Galactic evolution. The Na/Fe and Ni/Fe ratios are not well correlated with stellar age, but define a tight Ni-Na relation similar to that previously found for more metal-poor stars albeit with a smaller amplitude. Furthermore, the C/O ratio evolves very little with time, although [C/Fe] and [O/Fe] change by ~0.15 dex. Conclusions: The dependence of [X/Fe] on stellar age and the [Ni/Fe]- [Na/Fe] variations complicate the use of the [X/Fe]-TC relation as a possible signature for the existence of terrestrial planets around stars. The age trends for the various abundance ratios provide new constraints on supernovae yields and Galactic chemical evolution, and the slow evolution of C/O for solar metallicity stars is of interest for discussions of the composition of exoplanets. Based on data products from observations made with ESO Telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programs given in Table 1.Tables 2 and 3 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  14. Historical Trends

    Cancer.gov

    Close Window State Cancer Profiles Quick Reference Guides ? Back to Historical Trends Reference Guide Historical Trends This graphic shows the Historical Trends Graph for female breast cancer mortality in the United States, 1975-2011. There are various

  15. Particulate matter modifies the magnitude and time course of the non-linear temperature-mortality association.

    PubMed

    Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Guo, Cui; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan; Guo, Yuming

    2015-01-01

    It remains uncertain whether air pollution modifies the magnitude and time course of the temperature mortality association. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with non-linear interaction terms to assess the modifying effects of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 mm or less (PM(10)) on the association between mean temperature and mortality in Guangzhou, China.We found that both cold and hot effects increased with the quartiles of PM(10). The elderly were more vulnerable to cold and hot effects. Men suffered more from cold-related mortality than women, with the gender difference enlarging with the quartiles of PM(10). We identified statistically significant interaction effects between PM(10) and mean temperature on mortality (except for respiratory mortality). Cold and hot effects basically appeared acutely on highly polluted days, while effects were delayed on lowly polluted days. The findings indicate the importance of reducing PM(10) emission on extremely temperature days. PMID:25468212

  16. Linear Demasking Techniques Are Unreliable for Estimating the Circadian Phase of Ambulatory Temperature Data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Elizabeth B. Klerman; Younsun Lee; Charles A. Czeisler; Richard E. Kronauer

    1999-01-01

    Clinical investigators often use ambulatory temperature monitoring to assess the endogenous phase and amplitude of an individual's circadian pacemaker for diagnostic and research purposes. However, an individual's daily schedule includes changes in levels of activity, in posture, and in sleep-wake state, all of which are known to have masking or evoked effects on core body temperature (CBT) data. To compensate

  17. A non-linear effect of ambient temperature on apparent glucose tolerance

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. G. Moses; M. J. Patterson; J. M. Regan; R. Chaunchaiyakul; N. A. S. Taylor; A. B. Jenkins

    1997-01-01

    Increased ambient temperature affects apparent oral glucose tolerance to an extent which may have clinical implications for the diagnosis of impaired glucose tolerance and gestational diabetes. As a first step in order to better define the nature of this effect, we have examined, in a climate chamber, the effects of ambient temperature at four levels (20, 25, 30, and 35

  18. Trends in 1970-2010 summertime coastal California air temperatures:how HCN-corrections to COOP-data eliminated coastal-cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bornstein, R. D.; Ghebreegziabher, A. T.; Lebassi, B.; González, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    The analysis of California COOP-site monthly-averaged summer Tmax-trends (1970-2005) by Lebassi et al. (2009, in J. of Climate) has been extended by: (a) lengthening the period to 2010, (b) trend-comparisons with newly released HCN data, and (c) calculation of trends in annual Tmax-values. HCN data sets are NCDC-homogenized subsets of the "most trusted" COOP sites; they include 12 (of the 52 COOP sites) in the San Francisco Bay Area and four (of 28) in the Southern California Air Basin (SoCAB). COOP data used as HCN1 data were adjusted by NCDC for the following biases: (a) time-of-observations, (b) spatial inhomogeneity, (c) missing values, (d) changes in thermometer type, and (e) urban warming, while HCN2 data do not include the last two corrections. Comparison of the 35- and 40-year COOP monthly-averaged Tmax-trends at the 16 HCN sites showed a high correlation (0.96). It also showed, however, that as the six inland warming-sites (COOP sites also HCN sites) of Lebassi et al. are now generally warming a slightly lower rate than five years ago, the seven comparable coastal-cooling sites are thus now generally cooling at a slightly lower rate. Coastal-cooling was shown by Lebassi et al. as a "reverse-reaction" to regional warming in inland areas, which triggers coastal sea breezes, and which thus increased cooling onshore flows. Comparison of HCN1 and COOP 35-year Tmax-trends shows little correlation (0.15), as the HCN1-corrections changed six of the seven COOP cooling-sites into HCN1 warming-sites. Only the site with largest original COOP cooling also showed HCN1 cooling. Similar comparisons between the COOP and HCN2 sites showed that HCN2-corrections changed fewer (only four) cooling-sites to warming (and with lower warming-rates); a low correlation (0.44) thus existed between trend-values. As many climate-change impacts (e.g., brown outs, heat stress, ozone peaks) depend on extreme Tmax-values, and not just averaged-monthly Tmax-values, the SoCAB distribution of the highest COOP Tmax-values anytime (at each of its 28 sites) during the period from 1970-2010 shows three sub-areas, with a boundary-temperature of 340C (and with the following ranges): (a) cool coastal (27-340C), (b) cool mountain-tops (28-340C), and (c) in-between hot-area (34-400C). The spatial distribution of the trends in these extreme Tmax-values show decreases up to -0.80C/dec in the coastal cooling areas and increases up to 0.60C/dec in the inland and mountain warming areas. Note that these trends are larger than the monthly-averaged Tmax-trends (about ±0.30C/dec) in Lebassi et al.

  19. The effect of two-temperature post-shock accretion flow on the linear polarization pulse in magnetic cataclysmic variables

    E-print Network

    Gordon E. Sarty; Curtis J. Saxton; Kinwah Wu

    2008-08-05

    The temperatures of electrons and ions in the post-shock accretion region of a magnetic cataclysmic variable (mCV) will be equal at sufficiently high mass flow rates or for sufficiently weak magnetic fields. At lower mass flow rates or in stronger magnetic fields, efficient cyclotron cooling will cool the electrons faster than the electrons can cool the ions and a two-temperature flow will result. Here we investigate the differences in polarized radiation expected from mCV post-shock accretion columns modeled with one- and two-temperature hydrodynamics. In an mCV model with one accretion region, a magnetic field >~30 MG and a specific mass flow rate of ~0.5 g/cm/cm/s, along with a relatively generic geometric orientation of the system, we find that in the ultraviolet either a single linear polarization pulse per binary orbit or two pulses per binary orbit can be expected, depending on the accretion column hydrodynamic structure (one- or two-temperature) modeled. Under conditions where the physical flow is two-temperature, one pulse per orbit is predicted from a single accretion region where a one-temperature model predicts two pulses. The intensity light curves show similar pulse behavior but there is very little difference between the circular polarization predictions of one- and two-temperature models. Such discrepancies indicate that it is important to model some aspect of two-temperature flow in indirect imaging procedures, like Stokes imaging, especially at the edges of extended accretion regions, were the specific mass flow is low, and especially for ultraviolet data.

  20. Quasi-linear theory of electron density and temperature fluctuations with application to MHD generators and MPD arc thrusters.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, J. M.

    1972-01-01

    Fluctuations in electron density and temperature coupled through Ohm's law are studied for an ionizable medium. The nonlinear effects are considered in the limit of a third order quasi-linear treatment. Equations are derived for the amplitude of the fluctuation. Conditions under which a steady state can exist in the presence of the fluctuation are examined and effective transport properties are determined. A comparison is made to previously considered second order theory. The effect of third order terms indicates the possibility of fluctuations existing in regions predicted stable by previous analysis.

  1. NASA trend analysis procedures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  2. Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, Mark D.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    2012-01-01

    Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate speci?c phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but signi?cant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

  3. X-Treme beamline at SLS: X-ray magnetic circular and linear dichroism at high field and low temperature.

    PubMed

    Piamonteze, Cinthia; Flechsig, Uwe; Rusponi, Stefano; Dreiser, Jan; Heidler, Jakoba; Schmidt, Marcus; Wetter, Reto; Calvi, Marco; Schmidt, Thomas; Pruchova, Helena; Krempasky, Juraj; Quitmann, Christoph; Brune, Harald; Nolting, Frithjof

    2012-09-01

    X-Treme is a soft X-ray beamline recently built in the Swiss Light Source at the Paul Scherrer Institut in collaboration with École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. The beamline is dedicated to polarization-dependent X-ray absorption spectroscopy at high magnetic fields and low temperature. The source is an elliptically polarizing undulator. The end-station has a superconducting 7?T-2?T vector magnet, with sample temperature down to 2?K and is equipped with an in situ sample preparation system for surface science. The beamline commissioning measurements, which show a resolving power of 8000 and a maximum flux at the sample of 4.7 × 10(12)?photons?s(-1), are presented. Scientific examples showing X-ray magnetic circular and X-ray magnetic linear dichroism measurements are also presented. PMID:22898943

  4. On the Temperature Dependence of Molecular Line Shapes Due to Linearly Coupled Phonon Bands

    E-print Network

    Cao, Jianshu

    that are not known a priori. Nonlinear spectroscopies6-16 such as hole burning8-10 and photon echo11-16 are major. The expressions are valid for arbitrary temperature and can be extended to a general spectral density given by a sum of algebraic terms with exponential damping factors. Detailed analyses for three typical spectral

  5. High-temperature inert gas plasma magnetohydrodynamic energy conversion by using linear-shaped Faraday-type channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Tomoyuki; Zhuang, Yunqin; Okuno, Yoshihiro

    2013-02-01

    We describe high-density magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) energy conversion in a high-temperature seed-free argon plasma, for which a compact linear-shaped Faraday-type MHD electrical power generator is used. Short-time-duration single-pulse shock-tunnel-based experiments demonstrate the MHD energy conversion with varying total inflow temperature up to 9000 K and applied magnetic-flux density up to 4.0 T. The high-temperature plasma is transformed from the thermal-equilibrium state at the entrance to the weak-nonequilibrium state in the supersonic MHD channel. The discharge structure is reasonably homogeneous without suffering from serious streamer development. The power generation performance is monotonically improved by increasing total inflow temperature and strength of magnetic field. The enthalpy extraction efficiency of 13.1% and overall power density of 0.16 GW/m3 are attained. The local power density at the middle of the channel reaches 0.24 GW/m3.

  6. Linear stability of a compressible coaxial jet with continuous velocity and temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perrault-Joncas, Dominique; Maslowe, Sherwin A.

    2008-07-01

    This paper describes an investigation of the stability of a jet with velocity and temperature profiles characteristic of the exit region for a turbofan engine. Because the bypass stream mixes with both the exhaust and the ambient air, these profiles contain thin layers in which the velocity and temperature may vary rapidly. As a consequence, multiple instability modes are possible. In accordance with Rayleigh's theorem for axisymmetric incompressible shear flows, it turns out that there are three possible modes, only two of which are unstable. We consider the effect on spatial growth rates of varying the diameter and velocity ratios, compressibility, and azimuthal wavenumber. Radiating modes, that are possible when the primary jet is heated, are also studied.

  7. On the linearity of the high temperature peaks of LiF:Mg,Ti

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Weinstein; U. German; A. Abraham; S. Dubinsky; Z. B. Alfassi

    2005-01-01

    LiF:Mg,Ti has glow peaks also at temperatures higher than the main dosimetry peaks, which have a different LET sensitivity. Works in the past dealt mostly with high irradiation doses, and a supralinear response of peak 7 to gamma-rays was reported, making the applicability of the peak ratio method for neutron–gamma discrimination questionable. In the present work, the region of interest

  8. Arctic\\/North Atlantic Oscillation signature in Holocene sea surface temperature trends as obtained from alkenone data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    N. Rimbu; G. Lohmann; J.-H. Kim; H. W. Arz; R. Schneider

    2003-01-01

    The variability in alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic realm shows that a continuous SST decrease in the northeast Atlantic from the early to the late Holocene was accompanied by a persistent warming over the western subtropical Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the northern Red Sea. Based on the analysis of the instrumental data and of

  9. High-Temperature Ethanol Fermentation and Transformation with Linear DNA in the Thermotolerant Yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus DMKU3-1042?

    PubMed Central

    Nonklang, Sanom; Abdel-Banat, Babiker M. A.; Cha-aim, Kamonchai; Moonjai, Nareerat; Hoshida, Hisashi; Limtong, Savitree; Yamada, Mamoru; Akada, Rinji

    2008-01-01

    We demonstrate herein the ability of Kluyveromyces marxianus to be an efficient ethanol producer and host for expressing heterologous proteins as an alternative to Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Growth and ethanol production by strains of K. marxianus and S. cerevisiae were compared under the same conditions. K. marxianus DMKU3-1042 was found to be the most suitable strain for high-temperature growth and ethanol production at 45°C. This strain, but not S. cerevisiae, utilized cellobiose, xylose, xylitol, arabinose, glycerol, and lactose. To develop a K. marxianus DMKU3-1042 derivative strain suitable for genetic engineering, a uracil auxotroph was isolated and transformed with a linear DNA of the S. cerevisiae ScURA3 gene. Surprisingly, Ura+ transformants were easily obtained. By Southern blot hybridization, the linear ScURA3 DNA was found to have inserted randomly into the K. marxianus genome. Sequencing of one Lys? transformant confirmed the disruption of the KmLYS1 gene by the ScURA3 insertion. A PCR-amplified linear DNA lacking K. marxianus sequences but containing an Aspergillus ?-amylase gene under the control of the ScTDH3 promoter together with an ScURA3 marker was subsequently used to transform K. marxianus DMKU3-1042 in order to obtain transformants expressing Aspergillus ?-amylase. Our results demonstrate that K. marxianus DMKU3-1042 can be an alternative cost-effective bioethanol producer and a host for transformation with linear DNA by use of S. cerevisiae-based molecular genetic tools. PMID:18931291

  10. Two Americas. Comparisons of U.S. Child Poverty in Rural, Inner City and Suburban Areas. A Linear Trend Analysis to the Year 2010.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, John T.; Brown, J. Larry

    This analysis, part of a series on child poverty in America, contains an overview of child poverty trends over the period from 1959 to 1992 and projections of child poverty rates and levels by area of residence to the year 2010. Analyses, based on data from the Census Bureau, show a marked increase in the overall rate of child poverty since the…

  11. Methodology for Characterizing Trends | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    In order to obtain a consistent characterization of population trends in factors related to the prevention, early detection, or treatment of cancer, the joinpoint statistical methodology was used in this report. This methodology characterizes a trend using joined linear segments on a logarithmic scale; the point where two segments meet is called a "joinpoint." The methodology is used to characterize trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g., in the SEER Cancer Statistics Review).

  12. Seasonal trend of photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, L; Baldocchi, DD

    2003-09-01

    OAK-B135 Understanding seasonal changes in photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance is crucial for modeling long-term carbon uptake and energy fluxes of ecosystems. Gas exchange measurements of CO{sub 2} and light response curves on blue oak leaves (Quercus douglasii H. & A.) were conducted weekly throughout the growing season to study the seasonality of photosynthetic capacity (V{sub cmax}) and Ball-Berry slope (m) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature. A leaf photosynthetic model was used to determine V{sub cmax}. There was a pronounced seasonal pattern in V{sub cmax}. The maximum value of V{sub cmax}, 127 {micro}molm{sup -2} s{sup -1},was reached shortly after leaf expansion in early summer, when air temperature was moderate and soil water availability was high. Thereafter, V{sub cmax} declined as the soil water profile became depleted and the trees experienced extreme air temperatures, exceeding 40 C. The decline in V{sub cmax} was gradual in midsummer, however, despite extremely low predawn leaf water potentials ({Psi}{sub pd}, {approx} -4.0 MPa). Overall, temporal changes in V{sub cmax} were well correlated with changes in leaf nitrogen content. During spring leaf development, high rates of leaf dark respiration (R{sub d}, 5-6 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}) were observed. Once a leaf reached maturity, R{sub d} remained low, around 0.5 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}. In contrast to the strong seasonality of V{sub cmax}, m and marginal water cost per unit carbon gain ({partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A) were relatively constant over the season, even when leaf {Psi}{sub pd} dropped to -6.8 MPa. The constancy of {partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A suggests that stomata behaved optimally under severe water-stress conditions. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of modeling carbon and water vapor exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere.

  13. Long-term trends in sea surface temperature in coastal water in relation to large-scale climate change: A case study in Omura Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeshige, Aigo; Takahashi, Tetsuya; Nakata, Hideaki; Kimura, Shingo

    2013-09-01

    Long-term trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in Omura Bay were investigated using heat balance estimates based on a daily data set obtained for 40 years (1955-1995) by the National Pearl Research Laboratory. SST during the heating period (from March to August) tended to decrease, whereas that during most of the cooling period (from September to February) increased during these 40 years. The maximum rates of SST decrease and increase were found to be 0.020 °C year-1 in August and 0.028 °C year-1 in January, respectively. The sea surface heat balance analysis revealed that shortwave radiation flux decreased in the heating period due to decrease in solar radiation, resulting in a decrease in SST. In the cooling period, the increase in SST was attributed to the decrease in latent and sensible heat fluxes due to increased air temperature and decreased wind speed. These climatic changes affecting SST in Omura Bay showed a close linkage with global dimming and the East Asian monsoon circulation.

  14. Reconstructing Changes in Deep Ocean Temperature and Global Carbon Cycle during the Early Eocene Warming Trend: High-Resolution Benthic Stable Isotope Records from the SE Atlantic.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauretano, V.; Zachos, J. C.; Lourens, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    From the late Paleocene to the early Eocene, Earth's surface temperatures generally rose, resulting in an increase of at least 5°C in the deep ocean and culminating in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). This long-term warming was punctuated by a series of short-lived global warming events known as "hyperthermals", of which the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) represents the most extreme example. At least two other short-term episodes have been identified as hyperthermals: the ETM2 (or Elmo event) at about 53.7 Myr and the ETM3 (or X-event) at about 52.5 Myr. These transient events are marked by prominent carbon isotope excursions (CIEs), recorded in marine and continental sedimentary sequences and driven by fast and massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Recently, evidence has indicated the presence of a regular series of hyperthermal events following the peak in temperatures of the EECO. However, continuous records are needed to investigate short- and long- term changes in the climate system throughout the Early Eocene warming trend. Here, we present new high-resolution benthic stable isotope records of the Early Eocene from ODP Site 1263, (Walvis Ridge, SE Atlantic). The carbon and oxygen records document changes in deep-sea temperature and global carbon cycle encompassing the Early Eocene hyperthermal events and the EECO interval. The transition phase to the post-EECO events is distinct by the decoupling of carbon and oxygen isotopes on the long-term scale. Spectral and wavelet analyses suggest the influence of orbital forcing, specifically long and short eccentricity cycles.

  15. Trend and variability in observed hydrometeorological extremes in the Lake Victoria basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P.; Willems, P.; Ngirane-Katashaya, G.

    2013-05-01

    SummaryIn the Lake Victoria basin hydrology, trend analysis has mainly been limited to the mean of the hydrological variable without explicit consideration of extremes, which are very crucial in understanding the behaviour of disastrous hydrometeorological events. Since the effects of climate change are unleashed, more through the occurrence of extremes, analysis of both monotonic and cyclic trends in hydrological extremes is very crucial. The presence of a significant linear trend, in a long-term hydrometeorological record of extremes, may provide evidence of a shift from the natural trend to that which is enhanced by, for example, anthropogenic forcing. In addition, cyclic trends analysis of hydrological extremes provides information on the cyclic behaviour of the extreme anomalies that have occurred over and above the natural climate variability and may link them to past consequences and their drivers. Analysis of long term records of extremes for rainfall, temperature and streamflows for selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin, were carried out based on a linear trend test, to detect significant monotonic trends, and quantile perturbation analysis, to detect significant temporal extreme anomalies. In addition, correlations between change in rainfall extremes and that for the other extremes, as well as sunspot maxima, were investigated. The findings indicated that extremes in the Lake Victoria basin are, generally, experiencing positive linear trends. Albeit positive trend was generally demonstrated, the presence of significant linear trend was manifested in the extremes of the data obtained from the stations located in the northern and eastern parts of the Lake Victoria basin. This may suggest that the monotony in the positive trend is a result of an ever increasing and consistent external enhancement of the natural climate agitation. The latter has implications for flood risks if the trend persists in the near future. The cyclic analysis of the behaviour of extremes indicated that the 1940s and the 1970s experienced significantly low extremes. Furthermore, the higher significant anomalies for the 1990s, compared to that for the 1960s, may suggest a more intense enhancement of the change in the natural variability in the recent climate. Correlation between change in the extremes for rainfall and that of the minimum daily temperature was demonstrated to be stronger (c.f. maximum temperature and sunspot maxima) implying that if such correlation persists in the future then change in the extremes of daily minimum temperature can be used as an indicator for the change in rainfall extremes. The investigation of the correlations between climate indices/solar activity and hydrometeorological extremes suggests that oceanic and solar influences are part of the explanation of the variability observed in rainfall and temperatures extremes in the Lake Victoria basin.

  16. Observed Trends in Subtropical Stratocumulus and Associated Meteorology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chellappan, S.; Norris, J. R.; Myers, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    The importance of low-level cloud feedbacks to climate sensitivity motivates an investigation of how low-level cloud amount, liquid water path, and related meteorological conditions have changed in recent decades in subtropical stratocumulus regions. Using a satellite cloud dataset corrected for inhomogeneities, we find that during 1984-2009 low-level cloud amount significantly increased over the northeast and southeast Pacific, significantly decreased over the northeast Atlantic, and weakly increased over the southeast Atlantic and southeast Indian oceans. During 1988-2012, liquid water path decreased over the northeast Pacific, significantly increased over the southeast Pacific and northeast and southeast Atlantic, and weakly increased over the southeast Indian oceans. Examination of meteorological parameters from four re-analyses indicates that positive trends in low-level cloud amount are associated with decreasing trends in sea surface temperature and increasing trends in inversion strength, subsidence and cold-air advection, and vice-versa. Relationships between liquid water path and meteorological conditions are weaker, but increasing trends in liquid water path are associated with increasing trends in sea surface temperature and decreasing trends in inversion strength, subsidence, and cold-air advection, and vice-versa. A multi-linear regression model based on these four meteorological variables well captures the sign and to certain extent magnitude of observed cloud amount trends in almost all stratocumulus regions, but a similarly constructed model largely fails to reproduce the observed liquid water path trends. Differing signs of cloud trends and differing contributions from meteorological parameters between regions suggest that observed changes in subtropical stratocumulus since the 1980s are primarily due to natural variability rather than a systematic response to climate change.

  17. Closely linear temperature dependence of exchange bias and coercivity in out-of-plane exchange-biased [Pt\\/Co]3\\/NiO (11 Å) multilayer

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Z. Y. Liu; S. Adenwalla

    2003-01-01

    Strong out-of-plane exchange biasing has been observed in out-of-plane exchange biased [Pt (5 Å)\\/Co (4 Å)]3\\/NiO (11 Å) multilayer with perpendicular easy axis. Both the exchange field HE and coercivity HC display a closely linear temperature dependence except at very low temperatures. A thin NiO layer coated on the top of a Pt\\/Co multilayer has a great effect on the

  18. Changes in Stratospheric Temperatures and Their Implications for Changes in the BrewerDobson Circulation, 19792005

    E-print Network

    Sherwood, Steven

    Changes in Stratospheric Temperatures and Their Implications for Changes in the Brewer Sounding Unit (MSU), Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), and radiosondes. Linear trends in an empirically throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Trends in the same index suggest a significant strengthening

  19. Historical Trends

    Cancer.gov

    Close Window State Cancer Profiles Quick Reference Guides ? Quick Reference Guides Index Historical Trends Send to Printer Text description of this image. Site Home Policies Accessibility Viewing Files FOIA Contact Us U.S. Department of Health and Human

  20. High Temperatures & Electricity Demand

    E-print Network

    High Temperatures & Electricity Demand An Assessment of Supply Adequacy in California Trends.......................................................................................................1 HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND.....................................................................................................................7 SECTION I: HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND ..........................9 BACKGROUND

  1. Optimal Operating Temperature for Solar Thermal Power System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lu Jianfeng; Ding Jing

    2009-01-01

    Solar thermal power is currently one of the important trends and research hotspots of solar energy. In present paper, basic physical model is proposed to investigate the solar thermal power, and the operating temperature is optimized to maximize the electricity generating efficiency. As the incident energy flux rises, the wall temperature almost linearity increases, while the heat absorption efficiency will

  2. Reactivity trends of Fe phthalocyanines confined on graphite electrodes in terms of donor-acceptor intermolecular hardness: Linear versus volcano correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linares-Flores, C.; Espinoza-Vergara, J.; Zagal, J. H.; Arratia-Perez, R.

    2014-10-01

    In this work, we have studied the interaction between the hydrazine N2H4 molecule with several FeN4 macrocyclic complexes (FePc's). In order to modulate the electron density located on the metal center using iron-phthalocyanine (FePc) as the reference, we used substituted iron-phthalocyanines with different types of substituents electron-donating groups such as iron-tetraamino-phthalocyanine (4?(NH2)FePc) and iron-octamethoxyphthalocyanine (8?(OCH3)FePc), and with electron-withdrawing groups such as iron-tetranitrophthalocyanine(4?(NO2)FePc) and iron-hexadecachlorophthalocyanine (16(Cl)FePc), respectively. We have found that the energy of interaction between hydrazine and the Fe center in the macrocycle increases as the electron-withdrawing power of the substituents increases. When rate constants instead of currents are compared in a semilog plot versus ??D-A, a linear correlation is found where log k increases as the intermolecular hardness of the systems decreases.

  3. Increasing the upper-limit intensity in relativistic and ponderomotive self-focusing by using plasma with a linear electron temperature ramp

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bokaei, B.; Niknam, A. R.; Jafari Milani, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents an investigation of the characteristics of the propagation of a Gaussian laser beam through an underdense plasma in the presence of a linear electron temperature ramp. Relativistic and ponderomotive nonlinearities are involved. It is shown that the ponderomotive nonlinearity induces a saturation mechanism in the self-focusing phenomenon and leads to the existence of a laser intensity threshold above which the beam starts to diverge. It is also found that on using the plasma electron temperature ramp-up, the upper-limit value shifts to higher values. Furthermore, results show that the slope of the temperature ramp and its sign are important in the determination of the focusing and defocusing of a laser beam for the cases in which the initial electron temperatures are chosen below or above the turning point temperature.

  4. Monetary Trends

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Each month, Monetary Trends , from FRB St. Louis, follows interest rates, bank credit, measures of expected inflation, and reserve markets and short-term credit flows. The journal examines interest rates and policy-based inflation indicators in its December 1999 issue.

  5. Environmental Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC.

    This document consists of data which highlight trends in all sectors relevant to environmental policy. These data are presented in the form of charts and maps contained in 13 sections under the following headings: people and the land; critical areas (wetlands, wild areas, parks, historic places, and risk zones); human settlements; transportation;…

  6. Design, prototyping, and testing of an apparatus for establishing a linear temperature gradient in experimental fish tanks

    E-print Network

    Kadri, Romi Sinclair

    2014-01-01

    Immunology researchers require a new type of fish tank that provides a linear thermal gradient for experimental zebrafish in order to improve the accuracy and validity of their research. Zebrafish require the ability to ...

  7. Monthly time series trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in North Carolina Authors: Mohammad Sayemuzzaman1; Manoj K Jha2 1Presenting author: PhD candidate, Energy and Environmental System department, 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina A&T State University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, M.; Jha, M. K.

    2013-12-01

    Abstract This study analyzed monthly means of daily maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation of 249 meteorological stations evenly distributed in North Carolina for the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test was applied to examine the monthly trends over the period. Theil-Sen approach (TSA) was used to detect the magnitude of the trend. Finally, the abrupt shift in trends was also predicted using the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test. Moreover, Pre-whitening was considered prior to the application of the MK test and the TSA method as the data sets were serially correlated. The number of stations (in %) with most significant trend (confidence level ? 95%) in highest impacted months are for (1) Tmax with negative trend: May (62%), September (25%) and October (18%); (2) Tmax with positive trend: March (15%); (3) Tmin with positive trend: June (45%), August (39%), December (25%) and July (21%); (4) Tmin with negative trend: May (18%); (5) precipitation with negative trend: February (17%) and March (4%); and (6) precipitation with positive trend: November (4%) and June (2%). It is found that month of May (March and December) are being exhibiting significant decreasing (increasing) trends in both Tmax and Tmin analysis. Magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature is +0.073°C/month in June and -0.12°C/month in September, respectively. The SQMK test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in Tmin and decreasing trend in Tmax had begun in general around after 1970 and after 1960, respectively, in most of the stations. Similarly, magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/month (-4.50 mm/month) in November (February). Higher percentages of precipitation stations show possible year of trend shift during decade 1960~1970 in the SQMK test. It is expected that utilizing the findings of this study will bring about more insights for understanding of regional temperature and precipitation behavior over the last several decades in North Carolina.

  8. Impact of passivation layers on enhanced low-dose-rate sensitivity and pre-irradiation elevated-temperature stress effects in bipolar linear ICs

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marty R. Shaneyfelt; Ronald L. Pease; James R. Schwank; Michael C. Maher; Gerald L. Hash; Daniel M. Fleetwood; Paul E. Dodd; Cathleen A. Reber; Steven C. Witczak; Leonard C. Riewe; Harold P. Hjalmarson; James C. Banks; Barney L. Doyle; James A. Knapp

    2002-01-01

    Final chip passivation layers are shown to have a major impact on the total dose hardness of bipolar linear technologies. It is found that devices fabricated without passivation layers do not exhibit enhanced low-dose-rate sensitivity (ELDRS) or pre-irradiation elevated-temperature stress (PETS) sensitivity, whereas devices from the same production lot fabricated with either oxide\\/nitride or doped-glass passivation layers are ELDRS and

  9. Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Junsheng; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Koven, Charlie; Chen, Anping

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how vegetation growth responds to climate change is a critical requirement for projecting future ecosystem dynamics. Parts of North America (NA) have experienced a spring cooling trend over the last three decades, but little is known about the response of vegetation growth to this change. Using observed climate data and satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2006, we investigated changes in spring (April–May) temperature trends and their impact on vegetation growth in NA. A piecewise linear regression approach shows that the trend in spring temperature is not continuous through the 25-year period. In the northwestern region of NA, spring temperature increased until the late 1980s or early 1990s, and stalled or decreased afterwards. In response, a spring vegetation greening trend, which was evident in this region during the 1980s, stalled or reversed recently. Conversely, an opposite phenomenon occurred in the northeastern region of NA due to different spring temperature trends. Additionally, the trends of summer vegetation growth vary between the periods before and after the turning point (TP) of spring temperature trends. This change cannot be fully explained by summer drought stress change alone and is partly explained by changes in the trends of spring temperature as well as those of summer temperature. As reported in previous studies, summer vegetation browning trends have occurred in the northwestern region of NA since the early 1990s, which is consistent with the spring and summer cooling trends in this region during this period. PMID:21220297

  10. Linear dimensional change, compressive strength and detail reproduction in type IV dental stone dried at room temperature and in a microwave oven

    PubMed Central

    da SILVA, Marcos Aurélio Bomfim; VITTI, Rafael Pino; CONSANI, Simonides; SINHORETI, Mário Alexandre Coelho; MESQUITA, Marcelo Ferraz; CONSANI, Rafael Leonardo Xediek

    2012-01-01

    The type IV dental stone is widely used for the fabrication of dyes and master casts for fixed and removable partial prostheses. It is typically normal to wait at least 24 hours for the casts to dry prior to beginning the laboratory procedures. The waiting time has been shown to be greatly reduced by using microwave drying. Objective This study evaluated the influence of drying techniques at room temperature and microwave oven on the linear dimensional change, compressive strength and detail reproduction in type IV dental stones. Material and Methods Three type IV dental stone brands were selected; Elite Rock, Shera Premium and Durone IV. Two different drying protocols were tested in 4 groups (n=10); G1 - room temperature (25±4ºC) dried for 2 hours; G2 - room temperature dried for 24 hours; G3 - room temperature dried for 7 days and G4 - microwave oven dried at 800 W for 5 minutes and after 2 hours at room temperature. After drying, the samples were assayed for dimensional charges. The sample surface was submitted to the ImageTool 3.0 software for compressive strength in a universal testing machine with a cell load of 50 KN at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/minutes and the detail reproduction was analyzed with a stereomicroscope at 25x magnification. The statistical analysis of the linear dimensional change and compressive strength data were conducted by the ANOVA test followed by the Tukey test (p<0.05). Detailed reproduction values were reported in percentages. Results For the compressive strength test, Elite Rock and Durone IV did not present significant differences between G2 and G4, while Shera Premium did not present differences between G3 and G4. The best reproduction levels were observed for G3. Conclusions Dental stone microwave oven drying showed a linear dimensional change similar to after room temperature drying for 24 hours and 7 days. The compressive strength of the stone dried in the microwave oven was similar to those dried at room temperature for 24 hours, with the exception of Shera Premium, which had similar results for microwave and room temperature drying for 7 days. For the microwave drying method the detail reproduction levels for samples dried at room temperature for 24 hours and 7 days were similar, except for the Durone IV. PMID:23138748

  11. Measurement of the temperature distribution within monodisperse combusting droplets in linear streams using two-color laser-induced fluorescence

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Castanet; P. Lavieille; M. Lebouché; F. Lemoine

    2003-01-01

    Two-color laser-induced fluorescence can be use to perform space-averaged flying droplet temperature measurements. In this paper, the possibility to extend this technique to the measurement of the temperature distribution within a moving combusting droplet is considered and demonstrated. This technique may provide new experimental data related to the heat diffusion in liquid fuel droplets injected in high-temperature gas streams, for

  12. Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Anders Moberg; Philip D. Jones; David Lister; Alexander Walther; Manola Brunet; Jucundus Jacobeit; Lisa V. Alexander; Paul M. Della-Marta; Jürg Luterbacher; Pascal Yiou; Deliang Chen; Albert M. G. Klein Tank; Oscar Saladié; Javier Sigró; Enric Aguilar; Hans Alexandersson; Carlos Almarza; Ingeborg Auer; Mariano Barriendos; Michael Begert; Hans Bergström; Reinhard Böhm; C. J. Butler; John Caesar; Achim Drebs; Dmitra Founda; Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe; Giusi Micela; Maurizio Maugeri; Hermann Österle; Kreso Pandzic; Michael Petrakis; Lidija Srnec; Radim Tolasz; Heikki Tuomenvirta; Peter C. Werner; Hans Linderholm; Andreas Philipp; Heinz Wanner; Elena Xoplaki

    2006-01-01

    We analyze century-long daily temperature and precipitation records for stations in Europe west of 60°E. A set of climatic indices derived from the daily series, mainly focusing on extremes, is defined. Linear trends in these indices are assessed over the period 1901-2000. Average trends, for 75 stations mostly representing Europe west of 20°E, show a warming for all temperature indices.

  13. Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Anders Moberg; Philip D. Jones; David Lister; Alexander Walther; Manola Brunet; Jucundus Jacobeit; Lisa V. Alexander; Paul M. Della-Marta; Jürg Luterbacher; Pascal Yiou; Deliang Chen; Albert M. G. Klein Tank; Oscar Saladié; Javier Sigró; Enric Aguilar; Hans Alexandersson; Carlos Almarza; Ingeborg Auer; Mariano Barriendos; Michael Begert; Hans Bergström; Reinhard Böhm; C. J. Butler; John Caesar; Achim Drebs; Dmitra Founda; Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe; Giusi Micela; Maurizio Maugeri; Hermann Österle; Kreso Pandzic; Michael Petrakis; Lidija Srnec; Radim Tolasz; Heikki Tuomenvirta; Peter C. Werner; Hans Linderholm; Andreas Philipp; Heinz Wanner; Elena Xoplaki

    2006-01-01

    We analyze century-long daily temperature and precipitation records for stations in Europe west of 60°E. A set of climatic indices derived from the daily series, mainly focusing on extremes, is defined. Linear trends in these indices are assessed over the period 1901–2000. Average trends, for 75 stations mostly representing Europe west of 20°E, show a warming for all temperature indices.

  14. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events on the Loess Plateau of China during 1961-2007

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme climate events often cause catastrophic damage to nature and human society. Therefore, regional assessments in various climate and geographic regions are needed for understanding the uncertainties in the changing trends for extreme climate events. The objective of this study was to assess th...

  15. Online Adaptive Control of Non-linear Plants Using Neural Networks with Application to Temperature Control System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. Hedjar

    2007-01-01

    Although the neural inverse model controllers have demonstrated high potential in the non- conventional branch of non-linear control, their sensitivity to parameter variations and\\/or parameter uncertainties usually discourage their applications in industry. Indeed, when the controlled system is subject to parameter variations or uncertainties, unsatisfactory tracking performances are obtained. To overcome this problem, a neural inverse model is added to

  16. New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Peter

    2001-01-01

    Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)

  17. Trends in normalized US hurricane damages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter; Madsen, Bo

    2015-04-01

    The lack of linear trend in hurricane damages after normalization have often been used to argue that observed loss trends can be explained entirely by socioeconomic factors. However, the loss data have an extremely skewed distribution, and least squares fitting is simply an inappropriate tool. Here we analyze normalized hurricane damage estimates and find a strong climatic trend in the data. The sensitivity implies that expected annual damages double for a one degree warming in the region.

  18. On the linearity of the high-temperature emission from 7LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD700)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. Berger; M. Hajek

    2008-01-01

    It is known since the early 1970s [e.g., Jähnert, B., 1972. The response of TLD-700 thermoluminescent dosemeters to protons and alpha particles. Health Phys. 23, 112–114.] that the high-temperature emission (HTE) from LiF:Mg,Ti thermoluminescence (TL) phosphors shows a distinctly different LET dependence than the dominant glow peak 5. This behaviour of the high-temperature structure can be attributed to the earlier

  19. Non-linear dynamical analyses of transient surface temperature fluctuations during subcooled pool boiling on a horizontal disk

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Vijaykumar Sathyamurthi; Debjyoti Banerjee

    2009-01-01

    The class of dynamics in pool boiling on a large-size heater is assessed under subcooled pool boiling conditions. Transient surface temperature measurements are obtained using surface micro-machined K-type thin film thermocouples (TFT) in 10°C subcooled pool boiling experiments on a 62.23mm diameter silicon wafer using PF-5060 as the test liquid. Surface temperature data is obtained at each steady state condition

  20. A POWER ANALYSIS FOR DETECTING TRENDS1

    Microsoft Academic Search

    TIM GERRODETTE

    A power analysis allows estimation of the probability of detecting upward or downward trends in abundance using linear regression, given number of samples and estimates of sample variability and rate of change. Alternatively, the minimum number or precision of samples required to detect trends with a given degree of confidence can be computed. The results are applicable to an experimental

  1. The trendy trends: a fashion or a science story?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Zarkadoulas, N.

    2009-04-01

    The Nobelist physicist Niels Bohr once said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future. Nowadays, the scene has changed. It seems that since the scientific community accepted, in its majority, that the earth's climate is rapidly changing, an opinion that also echoes in public, scientists all over the world have identified significant trends in many climate related processes e.g. global temperature, rainfall, river discharges, ice melting etc. Furthermore, if we adopt the suggested trends in those natural processes and their future projections we should expect a horrifying future. But is that so? How consistent and scientifically sound are these trend based scenarios? A trend in its most common form can be expressed as a linear regression line fitted to an observed sample of the natural process under investigation. In addition, the decision of whether or not a trend is significant is based on inferences regarding the regression line coefficients. However, classical statistics inferences of the regression line coefficients assume normal and independent data, assumptions that are generally not valid in natural processes. Particularly, while the assumption of normality may hold in some cases, it is well documented that natural processes exhibit a great variety of autocorrelation structures, exponential or power type, and thus the assumption of independently distributed data is violated. In this study, we investigate based on Monte Carlo simulations the effect of different autocorrelation structures in the inference of the trend line significance. We demonstrate that trends considered as significant in a classical statistics framework are actually insignificant if autocorrelation structures are incorporated.

  2. Quasi-continuous-time impurity solver for the cluster dynamical mean-field theory with linear scaling in the inverse temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rost, Daniel; Assaad, Fakher; Blümer, Nils

    2015-03-01

    We present an extension to the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA) of an recently developed unbiased quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) impurity solver for single-site DMFT. The novel algorithm is based on a multigrid version of BSS-QMC, which yields Green functions free of significant Trotter errors, and scales linearly with the inverse temperature ? = 1 / T and cubically in the cluster size N. We use the superior scaling to explore ultra-low temperature regimes at moderate cluster sizes, not reachable with state-of-the-art continuous time QMC impurity solvers that scale cubically in ?. Benchmark results for the the two-dimensional (2d) Hubbard model, compared with complementary methods (unbiased lattice QMC, dynamical vertex approximation (D ?A)), are presented as well as a study of the 2d doped Kondo lattice model.

  3. Temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berenson, P. J.; Robertson, W. G.

    1973-01-01

    The problems in human comfort in heat stress are emphasized, with less emphasis placed upon cold exposure problems. Physiological parameters related to human thermal interactions are discussed, as well as data concerning thermal protective clothing. The energy balance equation, heat transfer equation, thermal comfort, heat stress, and cold stress are also considered. A two node model of human temperature regulation in FORTRAN is appended.

  4. Electrothermal Design Procedure to Observe RF Circuit Power and Linearity Characteristics With a Homodyne Differential Temperature Sensor

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marvin Onabajo; Josep Altet; Eduardo Aldrete-Vidrio; Diego Mateo; Jose Silva-Martinez

    2011-01-01

    The focus in this paper is on the extractio no f RF cir- cuit performance characteristics from the dc output of an on-chip temperature sensor. Any RF input signal can be applied to ex- cite the circuit under examination because only dissipated power levels are measured, which makes this approach attractive for on- line thermal monitoring and built-in test scenarios.

  5. Observation of Lorentzian lineshapes in the room temperature optical spectra of strongly coupled Jaggregate/metal hybrid nanostructures by linear two-dimensional optical spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Vasa, Parinda; Sommer, Ephraim; De Sio, Antonietta; Gross, Petra; Vogelgesang, Ralf; Lienau, Christoph

    2014-11-01

    We analyze the linear optical reflectivity spectra of a prototypical, strongly coupled metal/molecular hybrid nanostructure by means of a new experimental approach, linear two-dimensional optical spectroscopy. White-light, broadband spectral interferometry is used to measure amplitude and spectral phase of the sample reflectivity or transmission with high precision and to reconstruct the time structure of the electric field emitted by the sample upon impulsive excitation. A numerical analysis of this time-domain signal provides a two-dimensional representation of the coherent optical response of the sample as a function of excitation and detection frequency. The approach is used to study a nanostructure formed by depositing a thin J-aggregated dye layer on a gold grating. In this structure, strong coupling between excitons and surface plasmon polaritons results in the formation of hybrid polariton modes. In the strong coupling regime, Lorentzian lineshape profiles of different polariton modes are observed at room temperature. This is taken as an indication that the investigated strongly coupled polariton excitations are predominantly homogeneously broadened at room temperature. This new approach presents a versatile, simple and highly precise addition to nonlinear optical spectroscopic techniques for the analysis of line broadening phenomena.

  6. Non-linear effects in a spherical convection experiments with temperature dependent fluid properties: Microgravity experiment and numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaussinger, F.; Futterer, B.; Egbers, C.

    2012-12-01

    Thermal convection is one important driving mechanism of flow in the earth mantle. Setting up a self-gravitating buoyancy in a spherical shell geometry is the limiting factor for laboratory experiments to analyze velocity flow structures and heat transport. The geophysical flow model 'GeoFlow II', which is located at the Columbus module on the ISS, realizes such a central gravity. Under microgravity conditions a central dielectrophoretic force field is applied to a fluid filled spherical annulus. In contrast to the first mission 'GeoFlow I' the electro-hydrodynamical volume expansion coefficient of the working fluid has a strong dependence on the temperature and leads to pattern, which are related to a strong temperature dependent viscosity of the fluid. Even though the oil's viscosity itself is temperature-dependent, too, the maximum of viscosity contrast is only up to 1.5. The optical measurement of the fluid flow is based on the Wollaston shearing interferometry, since the on orbit setup avoids the use of measurement particles. This technique leads to fringe patterns. Simulations with RESPECT and GAIAA tend to verify the experimentally observed patterns by different numerical models.

  7. Characterizing the effect of temperature fluctuation on the incidence of malaria: an epidemiological study in south-west China using the varying coefficient distributed lag non-linear model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission is strongly determined by the environmental temperature and the environment is rarely constant. Therefore, mosquitoes and parasites are not only exposed to the mean temperature, but also to daily temperature variation. Recently, both theoretical and laboratory work has shown, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature can affect essential mosquito and parasite traits that determine malaria transmission intensity. However, so far there is no epidemiological evidence at the population level to this problem. Methods Thirty counties in southwest China were selected, and corresponding weekly malaria cases and weekly meteorological variables were collected from 2004 to 2009. Particularly, maximum, mean and minimum temperatures were collected. The daily temperature fluctuation was measured by the diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between the maximum and minimum temperature. The distributed lag non-linear model (MDLNM) was used to study the correlation between weekly malaria incidences and weekly mean temperatures, and the correlation pattern was allowed to vary over different levels of daily temperature fluctuations. Results The overall non-linear patterns for mean temperatures are distinct across different levels of DTR. When under cooler temperature conditions, the larger mean temperature effect on malaria incidences is found in the groups of higher DTR, suggesting that large daily temperature fluctuations act to speed up the malaria incidence in cooler environmental conditions. In contrast, high daily fluctuations under warmer conditions will lead to slow down the mean temperature effect. Furthermore, in the group of highest DTR, 24-25°C or 21-23°C are detected as the optimal temperature for the malaria transmission. Conclusion The environment is rarely constant, and the result highlights the need to consider temperature fluctuations as well as mean temperatures, when trying to understand or predict malaria transmission. This work may be the first epidemiological study confirming that the effect of the mean temperature depends on temperature fluctuations, resulting in relevant evidence at the population level. PMID:24886630

  8. A linear stability analysis on the onset of thermal convection of a fluid with strongly temperature-dependent viscosity in a spherical shell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kameyama, Masanori; Ichikawa, Hiroki; Miyauchi, Arata

    2013-02-01

    A linear stability analysis was performed in order to study the onset of thermal convection in the presence of a strong viscosity variation, with a special emphasis on the condition for the stagnant-lid (ST) convection where a convection takes place only in a sublayer beneath a highly viscous lid of cold fluid. We consider the temporal evolution (growth or decay) of an infinitesimal perturbation superimposed to a Boussinesq fluid with an infinite Prandtl number which is in a static (motionless) and conductive state in a basally heated planar layer or spherical shell. The viscosity of the fluid is assumed to be exponentially dependent on temperature. The linearized equations for conservations of mass, momentum, and internal (thermal) energy are numerically solved for the critical Rayleigh number, Ra c , as well as the radial profiles of eigenfunctions for infinitesimal perturbations. The above calculations are repeatedly carried out by systematically varying (i) the magnitude of the temperature dependence of viscosity, E, and (ii) the ratio of the inner and outer radii of the spherical shell, ?. A careful analysis of the vertical structure of incipient flows demonstrated that the dominance of the ST convection can be quantitatively identified by the vertical profile of ? h (a measure of conversion between horizontal and vertical flows), regardless of the model geometries. We also found that, in the spherical shell relevant to the Earth's mantle ( ? = 0.55), the transition into ST convection takes place at the viscosity contrast across the layer {r_?˜eq10^4} . Taken together with the fact that the threshold value of r ? falls in the range of r ? for a so-called sluggish-lid convection, our finding suggests that the ST-mode of convection with horizontally elongated convection cells is likely to arise in the Earth's mantle solely from the temperature-dependent viscosity.

  9. Research and development program for non-linear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature dependent constitutive relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.

    1981-01-01

    Results of a 20-month research and development program for nonlinear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature constitutive relationships are reported. The program included: (1) the evaluation of a number of viscoplastic constitutive models in the published literature; (2) incorporation of three of the most appropriate constitutive models into the MARC nonlinear finite element program; (3) calibration of the three constitutive models against experimental data using Hastelloy-X material; and (4) application of the most appropriate constitutive model to a three dimensional finite element analysis of a cylindrical combustor liner louver test specimen to establish the capability of the viscoplastic model to predict component structural response.

  10. Linear and nonlinear propagation of ion-acoustic waves in a multi-ion plasma with positrons and two-temperature superthermal electrons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultana, S.; Mamun, A. A.

    2014-01-01

    Linear and fully nonlinear features of ion-acoustic waves (IAWs) have been investigated by normal mode analysis (which is valid for extremely small amplitude limit) and pseudopotential approach (which is valid for arbitrary amplitude waves). The plasma is assumed to be composed of nonthermally ? (kappa)-distributed two-temperature electrons (termed as hot and cold), Maxwellian positrons, inertial ions and immobile negatively charged heavy ions. The pseudo-energy balance equation is derived from the fluid dynamical system of equations, and the properties of arbitrary amplitude ion-acoustic wave (IAW) excitations are examined. The basic features (width, amplitude, polarity, critical Mach number, speed, etc.) of IAWs are found to be significantly modified by the effects of positrons, heavy ions as well as by the effects of ?-distributed two-temperature superthermal electrons. The analytical and numerical results presented in this manuscript could be useful for explaining and understanding the basic features of solitary structures in astrophysical environments, where two-temperature superthermal electrons and thermal positrons exist.

  11. patterns & trends New techniques uncover trends

    E-print Network

    Atkinson, Katie

    techniques can identify patterns and trends in huge volumes of data and automate the process of lookingMining for patterns & trends New techniques uncover trends in social network data Working towards more environmentally-friendly fishing Predicting the impact of new fishing gear designs First empirical

  12. Time series modeling and central European temperature impact assessment of phenological records over the last 250 years

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christoph Schleip; Jürg Luterbacher; Annette Menzel

    2008-01-01

    Long-term spring and autumn phenological observations from Switzerland and Burgundy (eastern France) as well as long-term Swiss monthly and seasonal temperature measurements offer a unique possibility to evaluate plant phenological variability and temperature impacts over the last 250 years. We compare Pearson correlation coefficients and linear moving window trends of two different lengths with a Bayesian correlation and model comparison

  13. Temperature and non-linear response of cantilever-type mechanical oscillators used in atomic force microscopes with interferometric detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fläschner, G.; Ruschmeier, K.; Schwarz, A.; Bakhtiari, M. R.; Thorwart, M.; Wiesendanger, R.

    2015-03-01

    The sensitivity of atomic force microscopes is fundamentally limited by the cantilever temperature, which can be, in principle, determined by measuring its thermal spectrum and applying the equipartition theorem. However, the mechanical response can be affected by the light field inside the cavity of a Fabry-Perot interferometer due to light absorption, radiation pressure, photothermal forces, and laser noise. By evaluating the optomechanical Hamiltonian, we are able to explain the peculiar distance dependence of the mechanical quality factor as well as the appearance of thermal spectra with symmetrical Lorentzian as well as asymmetrical Fano line shapes. Our results can be applied to any type of mechanical oscillator in an interferometer-based detection system.

  14. Exploring linear data

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    National Council of Teachers of Mathematics

    2008-02-25

    This lesson connects statistics and linear functions. Students construct scatterplots, examine trends, and consider a line of best fit as they graph real-world data. They also investigate the concept of slope as they model linear data in a variety of settings that range from car repair costs to sports to medicine. Handouts for four activities, spread out over three class periods, are provided.

  15. The application of two-step linear temperature program to thermal analysis for monitoring the lipid induction of Nostoc sp. KNUA003 in large scale cultivation.

    PubMed

    Kang, Bongmun; Yoon, Ho-Sung

    2015-02-01

    Recently, microalgae was considered as a renewable energy for fuel production because its production is nonseasonal and may take place on nonarable land. Despite all of these advantages, microalgal oil production is significantly affected by environmental factors. Furthermore, the large variability remains an important problem in measurement of algae productivity and compositional analysis, especially, the total lipid content. Thus, there is considerable interest in accurate determination of total lipid content during the biotechnological process. For these reason, various high-throughput technologies were suggested for accurate measurement of total lipids contained in the microorganisms, especially oleaginous microalgae. In addition, more advanced technologies were employed to quantify the total lipids of the microalgae without a pretreatment. However, these methods are difficult to measure total lipid content in wet form microalgae obtained from large-scale production. In present study, the thermal analysis performed with two-step linear temeperature program was applied to measure heat evolved in temperature range from 310 to 351 °C of Nostoc sp. KNUA003 obtained from large-scale cultivation. And then, we examined the relationship between the heat evolved in 310-351 °C (HE) and total lipid content of the wet Nostoc cell cultivated in raceway. As a result, the linear relationship was determined between HE value and total lipid content of Nostoc sp. KNUA003. Particularly, there was a linear relationship of 98% between the HE value and the total lipid content of the tested microorganism. Based on this relationship, the total lipid content converted from the heat evolved of wet Nostoc sp. KNUA003 could be used for monitoring its lipid induction in large-scale cultivation. PMID:25640725

  16. Interdecadal variability of temperature and precipitation in China since 1880

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shaowu Wang; Jinhong Zhu; Jingning Cai

    2004-01-01

    Reconstruction of a homogeneous temperature and precipitation series for China is crucial for a proper understanding of climate\\u000a change over China. The annual mean temperature anomaly series of ten regions are found from 1880 to 2002. Positive anomalies\\u000a over China during the 1920s and 1940s are noticeable. The linear trend for the period of 1880–2002 is 0.58°C (100a)?1, which is

  17. Effect of temperature on the low-linear energy transfer radiolysis of the ceric-cerous sulfate dosimeter: a Monte Carlo simulation study.

    PubMed

    Kohan, Leila Mirsaleh; Meesungnoen, Jintana; Sanguanmith, Sunuchakan; Meesat, Ridthee; Jay-Gerin, Jean-Paul

    2014-05-01

    The stochastic modeling of the (60)Co ?/fast-electron radiolysis of the ceric-cerous chemical dosimeter has been performed as a function of temperature from 25-350°C. The system used is a dilute solution of ceric sulfate and cerous sulfate in aqueous 0.4 M sulfuric acid. In this system, H(•) (or HO2(•) in the presence of dissolved oxygen) and H2O2 produced by the radiolytic decomposition of water both reduce Ce(4+) ions to Ce(3+) ions, while (•)OH radicals oxidize the Ce(3+) present in the solution back to Ce(4+). The net Ce(3+) yield is given by G(Ce(3+)) = g(H(•)) + 2 g(H2O2) - g((•)OH), where the primary (or "escape") yields of H(•), H2O2 and (•)OH are represented by lower case g's. At room temperature, G(Ce(3+)) has been established to be 2.44 ± 0.8 molecules/100 eV. In this work, we investigated the effect of temperature on the yield of Ce(3+) and on the underlying chemical reaction kinetics using Monte Carlo track chemistry simulations. The simulations showed that G(Ce(3+)) is time dependent, a result of the differences in the lifetimes of the reactions that make up the radiolysis mechanism. Calculated G(Ce(3+)) values were found to decrease almost linearly with increasing temperature up to about 250°C, and are in excellent agreement with available experimental data. In particular, our calculations confirmed previous estimated values by Katsumura et al. (Radiat Phys Chem 1988; 32:259-63) showing that G(Ce(3+)) at ?250°C is about one third of its value at room temperature. Above ?250°C, our model predicted that G(Ce(3+)) would drop markedly with temperature until, instead of Ce(4+) reduction, Ce(3+) oxidation is observed. This drop is shown to occur as a result of the reaction of hydrogen atoms with water in the homogeneous chemical stage. PMID:24754561

  18. Analysis of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in Athens from 1897 to 2001 with emphasis on the last decade: trends, warm events, and cold events

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Founda; K. H. Papadopoulos; M. Petrakis; C. Giannakopoulos; P. Good

    2004-01-01

    The 105-year (1897–2001) surface air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) has been analyzed to determine indications of significant deviations from long-term average features in the city of Athens. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency towards warmer years, with significantly warmer summer and spring periods and slightly warmer winters (an increase of 1.23 and

  19. Relationships between long-term trends of air temperature, precipitation, nitrogen nutrition and growth of coniferous stands in Central Europe and Finland

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Karl Heinz Mellert; Jörg Prietzel; Ralf Straussberger; Karl Eugen Rehfuess; Hans Peter Kahle; Pedro Perez; Heinrich Spiecker

    2008-01-01

    Height growth of 19 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands in Germany, Austria and Finland, for which long-term records of foliar nutrient levels were available, was assessed\\u000a retrospectively by stem analyses and compared with data from regionally applied yield tables as references. Gridded historical\\u000a time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were used to characterise the

  20. The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program : Variation (Status and Trend) of Stream Water Temperature within th Entiat River Subbasin : January 2008 - October 2008.

    SciTech Connect

    Dawson, Pierre

    2008-01-29

    The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP - BPA project No.2003-017-00) has been created as a cost effective means of developing protocols and new technologies, novel indicators, sample designs, analytical, data management and communication tools and skills, and restoration experiments that support the development of a region-wide Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) program to assess the status of anadromous salmonid populations, their tributary habitat and restoration and management actions. The most straightforward approach to developing a regional-scale monitoring and evaluation program would be to increase standardization among status and trend monitoring programs. However, the diversity of species and their habitat, as well as the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding indicators, metrics, and data interpretation methods, requires the testing of multiple approaches. Thus, the approach ISEMP has adopted is to develop a broad template that may differ in the details among subbasins, but one that will ultimately lead to the formation of a unified RME process for the management of anadromous salmonid populations and habitat across the Columbia River Basin. ISEMP has been initiated in three pilot subbasins, the Wenatchee/Entiat, John Day, and Salmon. To balance replicating experimental approaches with the goal of developing monitoring and evaluation tools that apply as broadly as possible across the Pacific Northwest, these subbasins were chosen as representative of a wide range of potential challenges and conditions, e.g., differing fish species composition and life histories, ecoregions, institutional settings, and existing data. ISEMP has constructed a framework that builds on current status and trend monitoring infrastructures in these pilot subbasins, but challenges current programs by testing alternative monitoring approaches. In addition, the ISEMP is: (1) Collecting information over a hierarchy of spatial scales, allowing for a greater flexibility of data aggregation for multi-scale recovery planning assessments, and (2) Designing methods that: (a) Identify factors limiting fish production in watersheds; (b) Determine restoration actions to address these problems; (c) Implement actions as a large-scale experiment (e.g. Before After Control Impact, or BACI design), and (d) Implement intensive monitoring and research to evaluate the action's success. The intent of the ISEMP project is to design monitoring programs that can efficiently collect information to address multiple management objectives over a broad range of scales. This includes: Evaluating the status of anadromous salmonids and their habitat; Identifying opportunities to restore habitat function and fish performance, and Evaluating the benefits of the actions to the fish populations across the Columbia River Basin. The multi-scale nature of this goal requires the standardization of protocols and sampling designs that are statistically valid and powerful, properties that are currently inconsistent across the multiple monitoring programs in the region. Other aspects of the program will aid in the ability to extrapolate information beyond the study area, such as research to elucidate causal mechanisms, and a classification of watersheds throughout the Columbia River Basin. Obviously, the scale of the problem is immense and the ISEMP does not claim to be the only program working towards this goal. As such, ISEMP relies heavily on the basin's current monitoring infrastructure to test and develop monitoring strategies, while acting as a coordinating body and providing support for key elements such as data management and technical analyses. The ISEMP also ensures that monitoring programs can address large-scale management objectives (resulting largely from the ESA) through these local efforts. While the ISEMP maintains a regional focus it also returns the necessary information to aid in management at the smaller spatial scales (individual projects) where manipulations (e.g., habitat restoration actions) actually occur. The work captur

  1. Trends in Corporate Governance

    Microsoft Academic Search

    BENJAMIN E. HERMALIN

    2005-01-01

    The popular press and scholarly studies have noted a number of trends in corporate governance. This article addresses, from a theoretical perspective, whether these trends are linked. And, if so, how? The article finds that a trend toward greater board diligence will lead, sometimes through subtle or indirect mechanisms, to trends toward more external candidates becoming CEO, shorter tenures for

  2. Stock Data Clustering and Multiscale Trend Detection

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Andreea B. Dragut

    Generally, trend detection algorithms over the data stream require expert assistance in some form. We present an unsupervised\\u000a multiscale data stream algorithm which detects trends for evolving time series based on a data driver data stream. The raw\\u000a stream data clustering algorithm is incremental, space dilating and has linear time complexity. The evolving stream is incrementally\\u000a explored on a number

  3. Raj JainThe Ohio State University Networking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking Trends

    E-print Network

    Jain, Raj

    Raj JainThe Ohio State University 1B-1 Networking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking TrendsNetworking Trends Raj Jain The Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210 Jain@CIS.Ohio-State.Edu http://www.cis.ohio-state.edu/~jain/ Future All I want you to tell me is what will be the networking

  4. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Quantify Uncertainty of Stream Water Temperature Forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Bal, Guillaume; Rivot, Etienne; Baglinière, Jean-Luc; White, Jonathan; Prévost, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i) an emotive simulated example, ii) application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife. PMID:25541732

  5. A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.

    PubMed

    Bal, Guillaume; Rivot, Etienne; Baglinière, Jean-Luc; White, Jonathan; Prévost, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i) an emotive simulated example, ii) application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife. PMID:25541732

  6. Multiscale Variabilities in Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relationships with Tropospheric Climate Patterns

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David B. Enfield; Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez

    1999-01-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon with significant phase propagation within and between basins. This is captured and described in the first mode of a complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from the midnineteenth century through 1991. The global ENSO from the SSTA data, plus a linear trend everywhere, are subsequently removed

  7. Ovarian Cancer Trends

    MedlinePLUS

    ... Incidence Trends From 2002 to 2011 in the United States, the incidence rate of ovarian cancerâ?? Decreased significantly ... Mortality Trends From 2002 to 2011 in the United States, the death rate from ovarian cancerâ?? Decreased significantly ...

  8. Migration Trends Pittsburgh Region

    E-print Network

    Sibille, Etienne

    Migration Trends in the Pittsburgh Region 2000-2006 Christopher Briem July 2007 University of Pittsburgh UniversityCenterforSocialandUrbanResearch #12;Migration Trends in the Pittsburgh Region 2000...................................................................................................................3 3. Inter-regional Migration

  9. JOURNAL DE PHYSIQUE Colloque C6, supplment au n" 8, Tome 39, aot 1978, page C6-982 PHONON SCATTERING AND THE LINEAR SPECIFIC HEAT TERM IN EPOXY-RESINS AT LOW TEMPERATURES

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    SCATTERING AND THE LINEAR SPECIFIC HEAT TERM IN EPOXY-RESINS AT LOW TEMPERATURES S. Kelham and H.M. Rosenberg and the thermal conducti- vity in different ways. SAMPLES AND EXPERIMENTS.- The epoxy-resin used was Shell Epikote. This is confirmed by the fact that the sound velocity of these samples' is the same for each of them /l/. The best

  10. On optimal trend free sampling designs

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. Sengupta; Rahul Mukerjee

    1991-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimating a finite population mean in the presence of linear trend. Recently, Mukerjee and Sengupta (1990) have studied the existence of an optimal design-unbiased strategy under this set-up and have suggested optimal sampling designs whenever such optimal strategies exist. In this paper, we consider cases when such optimal strategies do not exist and suggest

  11. Foundations and Trends R Machine Learning

    E-print Network

    Foundations and Trends R in Machine Learning Vol. 5, No. 4 (2012) 287­364 c 2013 B. Kulis DOI: 10.1561/2200000019 Metric Learning: A Survey By Brian Kulis Contents 1 Introduction 288 2 Distance Learning via Linear Transformation Learning 295 2.4 Representative Special Cases 300 2.5 Optimization Techniques 310 2.6 Summary 320

  12. Supporting Online Material Trends Analysis Methods

    E-print Network

    Baum, Julia K.

    the amount of overdispersion relative to the Poisson distribution. The log-likelihood is parameterized of the one-parameter exponential family of distributions. This allows us to utilize the generalized linear estimates of trends in abundance for the recorded shark species. We assumed that the true distribution

  13. An Examination of Cooper's Test for Monotonic Trend

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Louis

    1977-01-01

    A statistic for testing monotonic trend that has been presented in the literature is shown not to be the binomial random variable it is contended to be, but rather it is linearly related to Kendall's tau statistic. (JKS)

  14. Comparing sampling patterns for kriging the spatial mean temporal trend

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. J. F. ter Braak; D. J. Brus; E. J. Pebesma

    2008-01-01

    In monitoring the environment one often wishes to detect the temporal trend in a variable that varies across a region. A useful\\u000a executive summary is then the temporal trend in the spatial mean. In this article, the best linear unbiased predictor of the\\u000a spatial mean temporal trend and its variance are derived under a universal kriging model. Five different, spatially

  15. Stock Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy Hongxing He1

    E-print Network

    Jin, Huidong "Warren"

    -means clustering algorithm is used to partition stock price time series data. After data partition, linear are reported. Keywords: Data Mining, Clustering, k-means, Time Series, Stock Trading 1 Introduction TrendStock Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy Hongxing He1 Jie Chen1 Huidong Jin1 Shuheng Chen2 1 CSIRO

  16. A FORTRAN program for testing trend and homogeneity in proportions.

    PubMed

    Thakur, A K; Berry, K J; Mielke, P W

    1985-01-01

    A FORTRAN program is provided for testing linear trend and homogeneity in proportions. Trend is evaluated by the Cochran-Armitage method and homogeneity is tested by an overall X2 test as well by multiple pairwise comparisons by the Fisher-Irwin exact method. The program should be easy to implement on any size of computer with a FORTRAN compiler. PMID:3839740

  17. Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

    2009-04-01

    The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

  18. Deterministic versus stochastic trends: Detection and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fatichi, S.; Barbosa, S. M.; Caporali, E.; Silva, M. E.

    2009-09-01

    The detection of a trend in a time series and the evaluation of its magnitude and statistical significance is an important task in geophysical research. This importance is amplified in climate change contexts, since trends are often used to characterize long-term climate variability and to quantify the magnitude and the statistical significance of changes in climate time series, both at global and local scales. Recent studies have demonstrated that the stochastic behavior of a time series can change the statistical significance of a trend, especially if the time series exhibits long-range dependence. The present study examines the trends in time series of daily average temperature recorded in 26 stations in the Tuscany region (Italy). In this study a new framework for trend detection is proposed. First two parametric statistical tests, the Phillips-Perron test and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, are applied in order to test for trend stationary and difference stationary behavior in the temperature time series. Then long-range dependence is assessed using different approaches, including wavelet analysis, heuristic methods and by fitting fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models. The trend detection results are further compared with the results obtained using nonparametric trend detection methods: Mann-Kendall, Cox-Stuart and Spearman's ? tests. This study confirms an increase in uncertainty when pronounced stochastic behaviors are present in the data. Nevertheless, for approximately one third of the analyzed records, the stochastic behavior itself cannot explain the long-term features of the time series, and a deterministic positive trend is the most likely explanation.

  19. Strain relaxation and surface roughness as a function of growth temperature in linearly graded In(x)Al(1-x)As (x = 0.05 to 0.25) buffers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, J. A.; Hu, E. L.; Lee, S. R.; Fritz, I. J.; Howard, A. J.; Hammons, B. E.; Tsao, J. Y.

    1993-12-01

    The relation of relaxation to surface morphology in linearly-graded InAlAs was examined as a function of growth temperature using x-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Samples were grown at temperatures ranging from 370 to 550C. Weak diffraction features for samples grown at 370 and 420C limited determination of the extent of their relaxation. The fractional relaxation of samples grown between 470 to 550C was essentially identical (approximately 77%) and symmetric in orthogonal (110) directions. The character of the surface morphology changed from random small scale roughness to a roughness more periodic in nature as the growth temperature increased. Although no asymmetry was observed in the relaxation, the roughness developed an asymmetry at higher growth temperatures with more prominent ridges along (-1 1 0) - (1 -1 0).

  20. Strain relaxation and surface roughness as a function of growth temperature in linearly graded In{sub x}Al{sub 1-x}As (x=0.05 to 0. 25) buffers

    SciTech Connect

    Olsen, J.A.; Hu, E.L. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Dept. of Materials Engineering; Lee, S.R.; Fritz, I.J.; Howard, A.J.; Hammons, B.E.; Tsao, J.Y. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The relation of relaxation to surface morphology in linearly-graded InAlAs was examined as a function of growth temperature using x-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Samples were grown at temperatures ranging from 370 to 550C. Weak diffraction features for samples grown at 370 and 420C limited determination of the extent of their relaxation. The fractional relaxation of samples grown between 470 to 550C was essentially identical ({approximately}77%) and symmetric in orthogonal <110> directions. The character of the surface morphology changed from random small scale roughness to a roughness more periodic in nature as the growth temperature increased. Although no asymmetry was observed in the relaxation, the roughness developed an asymmetry at higher growth temperatures with more prominent ridges along [{bar 1}10-[1{bar 1}0].

  1. Characterization of a hardened ultrastable UV linear variable filter and recent results on the radiometric stability of narrowband interference filters subjected to temperature/humidity, thermal/vacum, and ionizing radiation environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heath, Donald F.; Hilsenrath, Ernest; Janz, Scott J.

    1998-08-01

    A series of in-band and out-of-band transmittance measurements of filters covering the wavelength range from 317 to 1019 nm and a linear variable filter for the 300 to 400 nm range have been made. The bandpass filters and the linear variable were fabricated using the ion-assisted- deposition or similar processes. The radiometric stability of the central wavelength, bandpass, and peak transmittances were measured before and after exposures to combined high temperature and humidity, a thermal vacuum cycle, an ionizing particle radiation environment, flight on the Space Shuttle and at two temperature ranges. Representative radiative signal-to-noise ratios are given for solar irradiance observations with a silicon photodiode detector.

  2. Trends in police suicide.

    PubMed

    Violanti, J M

    1995-10-01

    Little empirical information is available concerning trends of suicide by police officers. Anecdotes and articles in the popular press imply that the rate is increasing but do not provide a scientific base. Data from an epidemiological mortality database are used to describe trends in police suicide in a medium-sized police department over a 40-yr. period. PMID:8559900

  3. Trends Shaping Education 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2010

    2010-01-01

    "Trends Shaping Education 2010" brings together evidence showing the effects on education of globalisation, social challenges, changes in the workplace, the transformation of childhood, and ICT. To make the content accessible, each trend is presented on a double page, containing an introduction, two charts with brief descriptive text and a set of…

  4. First difference method: Maximizing station density for the calculation of long-term global temperature change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, Thomas C.; Karl, Thomas R.; Jamason, Paul F.; Knight, Richard; Easterling, David R.

    1998-10-01

    The calculation of global land surface air temperature trends using the instrumental record has been based primarily upon two methods of maximizing the availability of station records. Hansen and Lebedeff[l981] developed a technique that is still used today, known as the reference station method; Jones et al. [1986a] popularized the climate anomaly method in their calculations of global temperature trends. In this paper we introduce yet another approach designed to maximize station records, referred to as the first difference method. To test the sensitivity of global temperature trend analysis to the method used, we calculate worldwide-averaged land surface mean temperature using each of these methods with an identical data base, the Global Historical Climatology Network. For further comparisons, a global climate model (GCM) transient model simulation is interpolated to the Global Historical Climatology Network station locations and the three techniques are then applied to data interpolated to the station locations from the model. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); [Nicholls et al. 1996] estimated a global land and ocean temperature change of 0.45°C±0.15°C since the 19th century. Their assessment of the uncertainty associated with this temperature trend did not specifically address the differences that the method of calculating a global temperature time series might produce. Our results indicate that the differences in 1880-1990 trends produced by these three different methods are only a few hundredths of a degree centigrade per 100 years on trends of approximately 0.5°C/100 years. This is quite small compared to the 0.15°C/100 years uncertainty associated with the IPCC global land and ocean assessment which included factors such as data homogeneity which are not addressed here. Indeed, our results indicate that the source of differences in trends is more likely to be the method used to calculate a linear trend from a global temperature time series than the method used to create the global temperature time series. The modeled results confirm this finding but highlight other important characteristics: the reference station method has uncharacteristically low interannual variance, more similar to time series from the entire globe (land and ocean) than the global land area from which the data were observed. This lower variance can impact the statistical significance associated with linear trends.

  5. Detecting environmental changes and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Stevermer, Amy J.; Schwartz, Barry E.

    Detecting changes in climate variables is a difficult process that depends on several parameters. These parameters include not only the size of the trend and the accuracy of the measurements, but also the magnitude of variability and the autocorrelation of the observations. The ability to detect a trend can vary from location to location and can vary with height at a single location. These differences are illustrated using observations from the Forecast Systems Laboratory Radiosonde Database to determine the natural variability and autocorrelation of temperature data as a function of altitude. As an example, the results for Topeka, Kansas, a mid-continent, stable monitoring site, indicate that trends of a fixed magnitude are easier to detect in the free troposphere than in either the boundary layer or the lower stratosphere. The free troposphere may be an important region for climate monitoring, especially given general circulation model projections of a nearly vertically-constant warming throughout the tropospheric altitudes. These types of investigations, which use past data to determine the natural variability and memory inherent in environmental parameters, can help identify geographic and altitude regions that may be critical for climate monitoring.

  6. The first near-linear bis(amide) f-block complex: a blueprint for a high temperature single molecule magnet.

    PubMed

    Chilton, Nicholas F; Goodwin, Conrad A P; Mills, David P; Winpenny, Richard E P

    2015-01-01

    We report the first near-linear bis(amide) 4f-block compound and show that this novel structure, if implemented with dysprosium(III), would have unprecedented single molecule magnet (SMM) properties with an energy barrier, Ueff, for reorientation of magnetization of 1800 cm(-1). PMID:25384179

  7. Lubricated Bearing Lifetimes of a Multiply Alkylated Cyclopentane and a Linear Perfl uoropolyether Fluid in Oscillatory Motion at Elevated Temperatures in Ultrahigh Vacuum

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Joseph Braza; Mark J. Jansen; William R. Jones

    Bearing life tests in vacuum with three space liquid lubricants, two multiply alkylated cyclopentanes (MACs) and a linear perfluoropolyether (PFPE) were performed. Test conditions included: an 89 N axial load (mean Hertzian stress 0.66 GPa), vacuum level below 7 x 10 -4 Pa,

  8. Trends in Prescription Drug Abuse

    MedlinePLUS

    ... HIV/AIDS Medical Consequences Mental Health Pain Prevention Substance Abuse in Military Life Treatment Trends & Statistics Publications Funding ... Drug Abuse » Trends in prescription drug abuse Prescription Drug Abuse Email Facebook Twitter Trends in prescription drug abuse ...

  9. Trends in Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snyder, Thomas D.; Freeman, Catherine E.

    2003-01-01

    Presents several key findings from several recent National Center for Educational Statistics reports related national trends in education involving elementary school enrollment, poverty concentration, language minority students, student family characteristics, reading comprehension, academic achievement (math, science, geography), student access…

  10. Economic Trends: December 1999

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    1999-01-01

    Economic Trends, a monthly publication from FRB Cleveland, contains articles on labor markets, life expectancy and retirement, and personal, private, and government savings rates. The December 1999 issue reports on The Employment Cost Index, Bank Performance, and Interest Rates.

  11. Skin Cancer Trends

    MedlinePLUS

    ... women. Remained level among Asian/Pacific Islander women. Mortality Trends From 2002 to 2011 in the United ... Alaska Native and Asian/Pacific Islander men. Women Mortality data for women were not presented in the ...

  12. Historical Trends Graph

    Cancer.gov

    Use this graph to explore the relationship over time of levels and trends in cancer rates for geographic areas and for demographic subgroups. Potential health disparities can be explored to identify opportunities or to evaluate the success of prior interventions.

  13. Global Trends Quiz

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    All of Earth's living things depend on healthy, life-sustaining ecosystems for their survival. But continued human population growth, combined with the planet's limited supply of natural resources, might generate disastrous consequences for our shared environment. This interactive quiz tests users' knowledge of demographics, population trends, consumption, and sources of environmental damage. Annotated answers identify trends in both prosperous and less-prosperous nations. A background essay and discussion questions are included.

  14. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  15. Variability and Trends in Long Term Time Series and Correlations with Climate Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietrafesa, L. J.; Yan, T.; Bao, S.; Gayes, P. T.

    2014-12-01

    Employing credible data archives, we investigate 350 years of European land/atmospheric time series and 135 years of global oceanic and land/atmospheric time series. We reveal significant non-stationary and non-linear internal modes in the temporal data sets that include prominent signals at seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and trans-century time scales. We find an overall planetary warming. The overall trend is upwards, but the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly displays rates ranging from 0.8 oC/Century in 1659 to 0.0 in 1800 to 0.3 in 1880 and now at 1.0oC/Century; in deference to the IPCC 2007 Report which claimed ~ 2oC/Century. We relate the long term trends and variability of the temperature records correlatively with climate factors, such as the North Atlantic, Pacific Decadal, Atlantic Multi-Decadal, El Niño Southern, Arctic, Solar, Western Boundary Current, and other "Oscillations" and possible spatial-temporal links; and with the trend of fossil fuel burning.

  16. An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

    PubMed

    Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

    2011-01-01

    Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ? 0.65 at p ? 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on. PMID:21552532

  17. Trend Extraction and Similarity Matching of Financial Time Series Based on EMD Method

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Suling Jia; Yanqin Guo; Qiang Wang; Jian Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Data Mining of time series is a very important part of DM (Data Mining).This article proposes a trend extraction method of financial time series which are non-stationary and non-linear. And this article also gives the definition of trend of time series based on different time intervals and the criterion to measure the precision of the trend extracted. Experiments of trend

  18. Trends at a Glance | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Trends-at-a-Glance offers an overview of trend direction measure by measure. Trends noted as stable or NSC (non-significant change) are not changing significantly. The difference between "stable" and "NSC" is based on statistical computations described in the Methodology for Characterizing Trends appendix.

  19. Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage

    PubMed Central

    Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

    2013-01-01

    Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961–2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change. PMID:24324869

  20. Crop-climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavromatis, Theodoros

    2015-05-01

    Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop-climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978-2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8-7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4-6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from -3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m2/day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m2/day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley—the most vulnerable cereals—were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.

  1. Linearization Method and Linear Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Hidema

    We focus on the relationship between the linearization method and linear complexity and show that the linearization method is another effective technique for calculating linear complexity. We analyze its effectiveness by comparing with the logic circuit method. We compare the relevant conditions and necessary computational cost with those of the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm and the Games-Chan algorithm. The significant property of a linearization method is that it needs no output sequence from a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) because it calculates linear complexity using the algebraic expression of its algorithm. When a PRNG has n [bit] stages (registers or internal states), the necessary computational cost is smaller than O(2n). On the other hand, the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm needs O(N2) where N(?2n) denotes period. Since existing methods calculate using the output sequence, an initial value of PRNG influences a resultant value of linear complexity. Therefore, a linear complexity is generally given as an estimate value. On the other hand, a linearization method calculates from an algorithm of PRNG, it can determine the lower bound of linear complexity.

  2. European drought trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-06-01

    Recent climate projections suggest pronounced changes in European drought frequency. In the north, increased precipitation volumes are likely to reduce drought occurrence, whereas more frequent droughts are expected for southern Europe. To assess whether this pattern of changes in drought frequency can already be identified for the past decades, we analyse trends in a recently developed pan-European drought climatology that is based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The index is derived on multiple time scales, ranging from 1 to 36 months, which allows the assessment of trends in both short term and multi-year droughts. Trends are quantified using the Theil-Sen trend estimator combined with an extension of the Mann-Kendal test (p < 0.05) that accounts for serial correlation. Field significance is assessed on the basis of techniques that control the false discovery rate in a multiple testing setting. The trend analysis indicates that changes in drought frequency are more pronounced on time scales of one year and longer. The analysis also reveals that there has been a tendency for decreased drought frequency in northern Europe in the past decades, whereas droughts have likely become more frequent in selected southern regions.

  3. Recent trends in aviation turbine fuel properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, R.

    1982-01-01

    Plots and tables, compiled from Department of Energy (and predecessor agency) inspection reports from 1969 to 1980, present ranges, averages, extremes, and trends for most of the 22 properties of Jet A aviation turbine fuel. In recent years, average values of aromatics content, mercaptan sulfur content, distillation temperature of 10 percent recovered, smoke point, and freezing point show small but recognizable trends toward their specification limits. About 80 percent of the fuel samples had at least one property near specification, defined as within a standard band about the specification limit. By far the most common near-specification properties were aromatics content, smoke point, and freezing point.

  4. Structures of protonated methanol clusters and temperature effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fifen, Jean Jules; Nsangou, Mama; Dhaouadi, Zoubeida; Motapon, Ousmanou; Jaidane, Nejm-Eddine

    2013-05-01

    The accurate evaluation of pKa's, or solvation energies of the proton in methanol at a given temperature is subject to the determination of the most favored structures of various isomers of protonated (H+(MeOH)n) and neutral ((MeOH)n) methanol clusters in the gas phase and in methanol at that temperature. Solvation energies of the proton in a given medium, at a given temperature may help in the determination of proton affinities and proton dissociation energies related to the deprotonation process in that medium and at that temperature. pKa's are related to numerous properties of drugs. In this work, we were interested in the determination of the most favored structures of various isomers of protonated methanol clusters in the gas phase and in methanol, at a given temperature. For this aim, the M062X/6-31++G(d,p) and B3LYP/6-31++G(d,p) levels of theory were used to perform geometries optimizations and frequency calculations on various isomers of (H+(MeOH)n) in both phases. Thermal effects were retrieved using our homemade FORTRAN code. Thus, we accessed the relative populations of various isomers of protonated methanol clusters, in both phases for temperatures ranging from 0 to 400 K. As results, in the gas phase, linear structures are entropically more favorable at high temperatures, while more compact ones are energetically more favorable at lower temperatures. The trend is somewhat different when bulk effects are taken into account. At high temperatures, the linear structure only dominates the population for n ? 6, while it is dominated by the cyclic structure for larger cluster sizes. At lower temperatures, compact structures still dominate the population, but with an order different from the one established in the gas phase. Hence, temperature effects dominate solvent effects in small cluster sizes (n ? 6), while the reverse trend is noted for larger cluster sizes.

  5. Structures of protonated methanol clusters and temperature effects.

    PubMed

    Fifen, Jean Jules; Nsangou, Mama; Dhaouadi, Zoubeida; Motapon, Ousmanou; Jaidane, Nejm-Eddine

    2013-05-14

    The accurate evaluation of pKa's, or solvation energies of the proton in methanol at a given temperature is subject to the determination of the most favored structures of various isomers of protonated (H(+)(MeOH)n) and neutral ((MeOH)n) methanol clusters in the gas phase and in methanol at that temperature. Solvation energies of the proton in a given medium, at a given temperature may help in the determination of proton affinities and proton dissociation energies related to the deprotonation process in that medium and at that temperature. pKa's are related to numerous properties of drugs. In this work, we were interested in the determination of the most favored structures of various isomers of protonated methanol clusters in the gas phase and in methanol, at a given temperature. For this aim, the M062X/6-31++G(d,p) and B3LYP/6-31++G(d,p) levels of theory were used to perform geometries optimizations and frequency calculations on various isomers of (H(+)(MeOH)n) in both phases. Thermal effects were retrieved using our homemade FORTRAN code. Thus, we accessed the relative populations of various isomers of protonated methanol clusters, in both phases for temperatures ranging from 0 to 400 K. As results, in the gas phase, linear structures are entropically more favorable at high temperatures, while more compact ones are energetically more favorable at lower temperatures. The trend is somewhat different when bulk effects are taken into account. At high temperatures, the linear structure only dominates the population for n ? 6, while it is dominated by the cyclic structure for larger cluster sizes. At lower temperatures, compact structures still dominate the population, but with an order different from the one established in the gas phase. Hence, temperature effects dominate solvent effects in small cluster sizes (n ? 6), while the reverse trend is noted for larger cluster sizes. PMID:23676038

  6. A probabilistic method of calculating circulation-induced trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brox Nilsen, Irene; Stagge, James Howard; Merete Tallaksen, Lena

    2015-04-01

    The water cycle in Europe has changed substantially over the past three decades. Increasing runoff is observed during winter and at northern latitudes in particular. Spring and summer months, as well as southern latitudes, are facing drier conditions. To understand what is driving large-scale changes in runoff, we look into changes in precipitation and temperature and link these to changes in atmospheric circulation. Previous studies have used the method of trend ratios (Cahynová and Huth, 2009) to attribute precipitation and temperature trends to changes in the frequency of circulation types. A trend ratio is the ratio of hypothetical trend, i.e., the trend that would result due to changes in circulation type frequency only, to the observed trend. However, the method of trend ratios has two drawbacks. First, if the observed trend is small, division by a very low value results in a meaningless trend ratio and thus requires a cut-off value to keep the trend ratio within meaningful boundaries. Second, the method does not allow a comparison of the observed trend to the spread of possible outcomes, because the method of hypothetical trends is based on a deterministic model. We propose a new, more robust method for detecting the importance of circulation-induced changes in explaining the observed trends, which has the benefit of being a non-parametric statistical test that assesses the entire range of hypothetical trends. Instead of creating a hypothetical series by replacing the observation on a given day with the long-term climatic mean of a certain month and circulation type (as in the existing trend ratio method), the new approach replaces the observation on a given day with a random sample from the distribution of the variable for the given month and circulation type. The method introduces the possibility to assign a rejection rate, thus allowing statistical significance to be assessed. We apply the method on time series of precipitation and temperature from the gridded 0.5 degree WFDEI dataset, covering Europe (40-65N, 10W-30E). The SynopVis Grosswetterlagen catalogue of circulation types for the time period 1981-2010, the same period as the climatic data, is used. The new approach is used to map in which regions and months changes in atmospheric circulation is the dominating factor controlling changes in precipitation and temperature in Europe. References Cahynová, M. and R. Huth (2009). Changes of atmospheric circulation in central Europe and their influence on climatic trends in the Czech Republic. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 96, 57-68. DOI:10.1007/s00704-008-0097-2.

  7. Ocean Temperatures

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    In this lesson students discover that measurements from space can tell us the temperature of the ocean, both on an annual average and as measured on any given date. For the annual average the highest ocean temperatures are near the equator, and drop as one moves either northward or southward from the equator. Students will graph each temperature value as a function of latitude and write a linear equation that best fits the points on their graph. They can choose as data points any point at that approximate latitude because the temperature is not uniform for a certain latitude - some areas are hotter and some are cooler. They can also look at today's ocean temperatures via the link provided to see how the seasons affect whether the northern or southern oceans are warmer. Students will take ocean temperature data from a map and plot temperature versus angle from the equator.

  8. Some fighter aircraft trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spearman, L.

    1985-01-01

    Some basic trends in fighters are traced from the post World II era. Beginning with the first operational jet fighter, the P-80, the characteristics of subsequent fighter aircraft are examined for performance, mission capability, effectiveness, and cost. Characteristics presented include: power loading, wing loading, maximum speed, rate of climb, turn rate, weight and weight distribution, cost and cost distribution. The characteristics of some USSR aircraft are included for comparison. The trends indicate some of the rationale for certain fighter designs and some likely characteristics to be sought in future fighter aircraft designs.

  9. Ozone trends: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staehelin, J.; Harris, N. R. P.; Appenzeller, C.; Eberhard, J.

    2001-05-01

    Ozone plays a very important role in our atmosphere because it protects any living organisms at the Earth's surface against the harmful solar UVB and UVC radiation. In the stratosphere, ozone plays a critical role in the energy budget because it absorbs both solar UV and terrestrial IR radiation. Further, ozone in the tropopause acts as a strong greenhouse gas, and increasing ozone trends at these altitudes contribute to climate change. This review contains a short description of the various techniques that provided atmospheric ozone measurements valuable for long-term trend analysis. The anthropogenic emissions of substances that deplete ozone (chlorine- and bromine-containing volatile gases) have increased from the 1950s until the second half of the 1980s. The most severe consequence of the anthropogenic release of ozone-depleting substances is the "Antarctic ozone hole." Long-term observations indicate that stratospheric ozone depletion in the southern winter-spring season over Antarctica started in the late 1970s, leading to a strong decrease in October total ozone means. Present values are only approximately half of those observed prior to 1970. In the Arctic, large ozone depletion was observed in winter and spring in some recent years. Satellite and ground-based measurements show no significant trends in the tropics but significant long-term decreasing trends in the northern and southern midlatitudes (of the order of 2-4% per decade in the period from 1970 to 1996 and an acceleration in trends in the 1980s). Ozone at northern midlatitudes decreased by -7.4±2% per decade at 40 km above mean sea level, while ozone loss was small at 30 km. Large trends were found in the lower stratosphere, -5.1±1.8% at 20 km and -7.3±4.6% at 15 km, where the bulk of the ozone resides. The possibility of a reduction in the observed trends has been discussed recently, but it is very hard to distinguish this from the natural variability. As a consequence of the Montreal Protocol process, the emissions of ozone-depleting substances have decreased since the late 1980s. Chlorine is no longer increasing in the stratosphere, although the total bromine amount is still increasing. Considering anthropogenic emissions of substances that deplete ozone, the turnaround in stratospheric ozone trends is expected to take place in the coming years. However, anthropogenic climate change could have a large influence on the future evolution of the Earth's ozone shield.

  10. Canadian Bird Trends Database

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Provided online by Environment Canada, The Canadian Bird Trends Database gives population trends and range distribution information for all species of birds that breed within the Canadian provinces of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (see the March 4, 1998 Scout Report for Science & Engineering). Users may retrieve summary data for birds by searching or browsing common or scientific name, taxonomic group, habitat guild, migratory pattern, or geographic area. Also available at the site are links to bird species lists in Canada and information on conservation and management of migratory birds.

  11. Crystal structures of the high temperature forms of V{sub 8}O{sub 15} and V{sub 9}O{sub 17} and structural trends in the V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1} Magneli series

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, J.M., E-mail: jared.allred@gmail.com [Department of Chemistry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Cava, R.J. [Department of Chemistry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)] [Department of Chemistry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2013-02-15

    We report the structure of the metallic high-temperature (ht) form of V{sub 9}O{sub 17}, determined from single crystal X-ray diffraction: space group=P-1 a=5.4219(7) A, b=7.0142(9) A, c=14.5252(19) A, {alpha}=97.0310(10) Degree-Sign , {beta}=90.9900(10) Degree-Sign , {gamma}=108.9630(10) Degree-Sign , V=517.53(12) A{sup 3}, and Z=2. We also report refinement of the structure of metallic ht-V{sub 8}O{sub 15}, space group=P-1, a=5.4315(17) A, b=7.015(2) A, c=13.147(5) A, {alpha}=100.144(4) Degree-Sign , {beta}=95.776(4) Degree-Sign , {gamma}=108.965(3) Degree-Sign , V=459.6(3) A{sup 3}, and Z=2. The structure of metallic V{sub 9}O{sub 17} is interpreted and discussed in the context of the V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1} Magneli phases, yielding trends about how the underlying forces contribute to the metal to insulator transition (MIT). The manner in which structural features of the metallic phases change as a function of n supports previous arguments that there is a turnover in the forces leading to the MIT between n=6 and n=8. - Graphical abstract: Left: The crystal structures of V{sub 8}O{sub 15} and V{sub 9}O{sub 17} shown in context of the crystallographic shear family V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1}. Right: The lattice parameters of V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1} as a function of n. The anamolous trend in b exhibits similar behavior as the metal to insulator (MIT) transition temperature (red). Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Crystal structures of the metallic forms of V{sub 8}O{sub 15} and V{sub 9}O{sub 17}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer General trends across the V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1} allow designation of two chain types in all phases. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Triclinic b lattice parameter varies anomalously with n, in V{sub n}O{sub 2n-1}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Trend in b matches the metal to insulator transition temperature trend.

  12. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donat, M. G.; Alexander, L. V.; Yang, H.; Durre, I.; Vose, R.; Dunn, R. J. H.; Willett, K. M.; Aguilar, E.; Brunet, M.; Caesar, J.; Hewitson, B.; Jack, C.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Kruger, A. C.; Marengo, J.; Peterson, T. C.; Renom, M.; Oria Rojas, C.; Rusticucci, M.; Salinger, J.; Elrayah, A. S.; Sekele, S. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Trewin, B.; Villarroel, C.; Vincent, L. A.; Zhai, P.; Zhang, X.; Kitching, S.

    2013-03-01

    In this study, we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land-based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data using a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High-quality in situ observations from over 7000 temperature and 11,000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75° × 2.5° longitude-latitude grid over the period 1901-2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity, and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.

  13. Microwave damage susceptibility trend of a bipolar transistor as a function of frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Zhen-Yang; Chai, Chang-Chun; Ren, Xing-Rong; Yang, Yin-Tang; Chen, Bin; Song, Kun; Zhao, Ying-Bo

    2012-09-01

    We conduct a theoretical study of the damage susceptibility trend of a typical bipolar transistor induced by a high-power microwave (HPM) as a function of frequency. The dependences of the burnout time and the damage power on the signal frequency are obtained. Studies of the internal damage process and the mechanism of the device are carried out from the variation analysis of the distribution of the electric field, current density, and temperature. The investigation shows that the burnout time linearly depends on the signal frequency. The current density and the electric field at the damage position decrease with increasing frequency. Meanwhile, the temperature elevation occurs in the area between the p-n junction and the n-n+ interface due to the increase of the electric field. Adopting the data analysis software, the relationship between the damage power and frequency is obtained. Moreover, the thickness of the substrate has a significant effect on the burnout time.

  14. Historical Trends in Childlessness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowland, Donald T.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the rates of childlessness over time are explored using European, Australian, American, and Japanese data from censuses, national registers, and large-scale surveys. The trends are remarkably similar across the countries for which data are available: a peak in childlessness rates for the 1880-1910 birth cohorts, a more or less…

  15. ELEVATIONAL TRENDS IN BIODIVERSITY

    E-print Network

    McCain, Christy M.

    ELEVATIONAL TRENDS IN BIODIVERSITY John-Arvid Grytnesn and Christy M. McCainw n University of Bergen and w University of California I. Introduction II. History of Elevational Studies III. Observed that are net exporters of individuals and pop- ulations that are net importers of individuals. ELEVATIONAL

  16. Language Trends 2010 Secondary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CILT, the National Centre for Languages, 2010

    2010-01-01

    The Language Trends survey is run jointly each year by CILT, the National Centre for Languages, the Association for Language Learning (ALL) and the Independent Schools Modern Languages Association (ISMLA). In this period of rapid change and policy development, it is vital to have an up to date picture of current issues for languages. Therefore,…

  17. Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orey, Michael; Molenda, Michael; Sullivan, Michael; Klein, James D.; Brinkerfhoff, Jonathan; Koroghlanian, Carol; Moore, D. Michael; Lockee, Barbara B.; Burton, John K.; Liu, Y.; Emerson, John D.; Boes, Lisa; Mosteller, Frederick; Ely, Donald P.; Belanger, Yvonne; Ellsworth, James B.; Lowe, Carrie A.; Russell, Shayne; Thomas, Lajeane; Richey, Rita C.; Earle, Rodney S.

    2002-01-01

    The articles in this section of "Educational Media and Technology Yearbook" identify current trends and issues in the field of instructional technology. Two subsections are also included: ERIC Digests, which are reprints of ERIC reports available on the Internet, and a subsection on a variety of standards that emerged during the past couple of…

  18. Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orey, Michael; Sullivan, Michael; Molenda, Michael; Foley, Anne L.; Morgan, Janet; McKenney, Susan; Harada, Violet H.; Lee, Jung

    2003-01-01

    Contains five articles covering general trends and issues in instructional technology, including: developments in corporate training, higher education, and K-12 education; women's contributions to the leading instructional technology journals; developing science education materials via computer-based support; learning in the Information Age; and…

  19. Trends in Biomedical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peppas, Nicholas A.; Mallinson, Richard G.

    1982-01-01

    An analysis of trends in biomedical education within chemical education is presented. Data used for the analysis included: type/level of course, subjects taught, and textbook preferences. Results among others of the 1980 survey indicate that 28 out of 79 schools responding offer at least one course in biomedical engineering. (JN)

  20. INTERNATIONAL LEGISLATIVE TRENDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper will attempt to provide a pollution prevention legislative overview of where we have been, where we are, and some thoughts on pollution prevention legislative trends for the future. overnments have an important role to play by setting the regulatory framework, but clea...

  1. Rural Conditions and Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazie, Sara Mills, Ed.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    This U.S. Department of Agriculture periodical gives current statistical information on rural America. This issue contains articles about the impact on rural areas of economic trends, employment, and industry changes. A general overview indicates that moderate improvements in rural employment since 1986 have been tempered by slow income growth.…

  2. Input/Output Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitchell, J.

    This paper discusses batch processing; and on-line, time-sharing operations, and their associate input/output equipment. Special emphasis is placed on electronic display equipment. It concludes that future equipment trends will allow the user more and easier access to the machine he uses. (Author)

  3. Trends in Educational Expenditure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, Gerald

    This study provides an overview of expenditures for education and training by educational institutions in Australia, 1991-2001. The study used newly available data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and administrative data from the main sectors' reports on the size and trends in public and private education expenditures. It analyzed…

  4. Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

    PubMed

    Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

    2014-07-01

    Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 9 July 2014; doi:10.1038/jes.2014.45. PMID:25004934

  5. Regional sea level trends in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannah, John; Bell, Robert G.

    2012-01-01

    In terms of sea level data sets able to be used for long-term sea level trend analysis, the Southern Hemisphere is a data sparse region of the world. New Zealand lies in this region, presently having four (major port) data sets used for such trend analysis. This paper describes the process followed to compute new sea level trends at another six ports, each with very discontinuous tide gauge records. In each case the tide gauge has previously only been used for precisely defining an historical local Mean Sea Level (MSL) datum. The process used involved a comparison of the old MSL datum with a newly defined datum obtained from sea level data covering the last decade. A simple linear trend was fitted between the two data points. Efforts were then made to assess possible bias in the results due to oceanographic factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This was done by taking the longer time series from the four major ports and assessing the spatially coherent variability in annual sea level using the dominant principal component from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The average relative sea level rise calculated from these six newly derived trends was 1.7 ± 0.1 mm yr-1, a result that is completely consistent with the analysis of the long-term gauge records. Most importantly, it offers a relatively simple method of improving our knowledge of relative sea level trends in data sparse regions of the world.

  6. Interannual variability of temperature at a depth of 125 meters in the North Atlantic Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Levitus, S.; Boyer, T.P. [National Oceanographic Data Center, Washington, DC (United States); Antonov, J.I. [State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1994-10-07

    Analyses of historical ocean temperature data at a depth of 125 meters in the North Atlantic Ocean indicate that from 1950-1990 the subtropical and subartic gyres exhibited linear trends that were opposite in phase. In addition, multivariate analyses of yearly mean temperature anomaly fields between 20{degrees}N and 70{degrees}N in the North Atlantic show a characteristic space-time temperature oscillation from 1947 to 1990. A quasidecadal oscillation, first-identified at Ocean Weather Station C, is part of a basin-wide feature. Gyre and basin-scale variations such as these provide the observational basis for climate diagnostic and modeling studies.

  7. Contrasting temporal trend discovery for large healthcare databases.

    PubMed

    Hrovat, Goran; Stiglic, Gregor; Kokol, Peter; Ojsteršek, Milan

    2014-01-01

    With the increased acceptance of electronic health records, we can observe the increasing interest in the application of data mining approaches within this field. This study introduces a novel approach for exploring and comparing temporal trends within different in-patient subgroups, which is based on associated rule mining using Apriori algorithm and linear model-based recursive partitioning. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality was used to evaluate the proposed approach. This study presents a novel approach where visual analytics on big data is used for trend discovery in form of a regression tree with scatter plots in the leaves of the tree. The trend lines are used for directly comparing linear trends within a specified time frame. Our results demonstrate the existence of opposite trends in relation to age and sex based subgroups that would be impossible to discover using traditional trend-tracking techniques. Such an approach can be employed regarding decision support applications for policy makers when organizing campaigns or by hospital management for observing trends that cannot be directly discovered using traditional analytical techniques. PMID:24120407

  8. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2015-06-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  9. Trends in motor gasolines: 1942-1981

    SciTech Connect

    Shelton, E M; Whisman, M L; Woodward, P W

    1982-06-01

    Trends in motor gasolines for the years of 1942 through 1981 have been evaluated based upon data contained in surveys that have been prepared and published by the Bartlesville Energy Technology Center (BETC). These surveys have been published twice annually since 1935 describing the properties of motor gasolines from throughout the country. The surveys have been conducted in cooperation with the American Petroleum Institute (API) since 1948. Various companies from throughout the country obtain samples from retail outlets, analyze the samples by the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) procedures, and report data to the Bartlesville center for compilation, tabulation, calculation, analysis and publication. A typical motor gasoline report covers 2400 samples from service stations throughout the country representing some 48 companies that manufacture and supply gasoline. The reports include trend charts, octane plots, and tables of test results from about a dozen different tests. From these data in 77 semiannual surveys, a summary report has thus been assembled that shows trends in motor gasolines throughout the entire era of winter 1942 to 1943 to the present. Trends of physical properties including octane numbers, antiknock ratings, distillation temperatures, Reid vapor pressure, sulfur and lead content are tabulated, plotted and discussed in the current report. Also included are trend effects of technological advances and the interactions of engine design, societal and political events and prices upon motor gasoline evolution during the 40 year period.

  10. The recent warming trend in North Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orsi, Anais; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeff

    2015-04-01

    The arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, but it is also one where there is little historical data. Although summer warming causes melt, the annual temperature trend is dominated by the winter and fall season, which are much less well documented. In addition, the instrumental record relies principally on coastal weather stations, and there are very few direct temperature observations in the interior dating back more than 30 years, especially in North Greenland, where the current warming trend is the largest. Here, we present a temperature reconstruction from NEEM (51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, for the last 100 years, which allows us to put the recent trend in the context of the longer term climate. We use a combination of two independent proxies to reconstruct the temperature history at NEEM: borehole temperature and inert gas isotope measurements in the firn. Borehole temperature takes advantage of the low temperature diffusivity of the snow and ice, which allows the temperature history to be preserved in the ice for several centuries. Temperature gradients in the firn (old snow above the ice) influence the gas isotopic composition: thermal fractionation causes heavy isotopes to concentrate on the cold end of the firn column. We measured the isotopes of inert gases (N2, Ar and Kr), which have a constant atmospheric composition through time, and use the thermal fractionation signal as an additional constraint on the temperature history at the site. We find that NEEM has been warming by 0.86±0.22°C/decade over the past 30 years, from -28.55±0.29°C for the 1900-1970 average to -26.77±0.16°C for the 2000-2010 average. The warming rate at NEEM is similar to that of Greenland Summit, and confirms the large warming trends in North Greenland (polar amplification) and high altitude sites (tropospheric rather than surface warming). Water isotopes show that the recent past has not met the level of the 1928 anomaly; but the average of the past 30 years has the highest isotope values since 1724, which suggests that the sustained warming of the past 30 years is indeed exceptional.

  11. Using optoacoustic imaging for measuring the temperature dependence of Grüneisen parameter in optically absorbing solutions

    PubMed Central

    Petrova, Elena; Ermilov, Sergey; Su, Richard; Nadvoretskiy, Vyacheslav; Conjusteau, André; Oraevsky, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Grüneisen parameter is a key temperature-dependent physical characteristic responsible for thermoelastic efficiency of materials. We propose a new methodology for accurate measurements of temperature dependence of Grüneisen parameter in optically absorbing solutions. We use two-dimensional optoacoustic (OA) imaging to improve accuracy of measurements. Our approach eliminates contribution of local optical fluence and absorbance. To validate the proposed methodology, we studied temperature dependence of aqueous cupric sulfate solutions in the range from 22 to 4°C. Our results for the most diluted salt perfectly matched known temperature dependence for the Grüneisen parameter of water. We also found that Grüneisen-temperature relationship for cupric sulfate exhibits linear trend with respect to the concentration. In addition to accurate measurements of Grüneisen changes with temperature, the developed technique provides a basis for future high precision OA temperature monitoring in live tissues. PMID:24150350

  12. Using optoacoustic imaging for measuring the temperature dependence of Grüneisen parameter in optically absorbing solutions.

    PubMed

    Petrova, Elena; Ermilov, Sergey; Su, Richard; Nadvoretskiy, Vyacheslav; Conjusteau, André; Oraevsky, Alexander

    2013-10-21

    Grüneisen parameter is a key temperature-dependent physical characteristic responsible for thermoelastic efficiency of materials. We propose a new methodology for accurate measurements of temperature dependence of Grüneisen parameter in optically absorbing solutions. We use two-dimensional optoacoustic (OA) imaging to improve accuracy of measurements. Our approach eliminates contribution of local optical fluence and absorbance. To validate the proposed methodology, we studied temperature dependence of aqueous cupric sulfate solutions in the range from 22 to 4 °C. Our results for the most diluted salt perfectly matched known temperature dependence for the Grüneisen parameter of water. We also found that Grüneisen-temperature relationship for cupric sulfate exhibits linear trend with respect to the concentration. In addition to accurate measurements of Grüneisen changes with temperature, the developed technique provides a basis for future high precision OA temperature monitoring in live tissues. PMID:24150350

  13. Phytophenological trends in Switzerland

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. Defila; B. Clot

    2001-01-01

    Nation-wide phenological observations have been made in Switzerland since 1951. In addition to these observation programmes,\\u000a there are two very long phenological series in Switzerland: leaf bud burst of horse-chestnut trees has been observed in Geneva\\u000a since 1808 and full flowering of cherry trees in Liestal since 1894. In addition to the presentation of these two long phenological\\u000a series, trends

  14. Global Trends Menu

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The UN Cyberschoolbus (discussed in the December 2, 1997 Scout Report for Social Sciences) Global Trends Menu enables teachers to quickly access useful and free visual aids for social studies instruction. The site offers a wide variety of charts and graphs in the following subject areas: Population, Health, Food and Agriculture, Women, Children, Economic Development, Climate and Environment, and Social Indicators. Most visual aids can be downloaded, and teachers are welcome to submit requests for specific graphs not currently available at the site.

  15. Trends in Faculty Salaries

    Microsoft Academic Search

    William F. Rayburn

    \\u000a A concern in women’s health care is the potential for inequitable compensation for services provided. For example, a 2000\\u000a JAMA report indicated that inflation-adjusted annualized salary growth was negative for faculty in obstetrics and gynecology.\\u000a This chapter examines trends in the salaries of medical school faculty in women’s healthcare based on a review of extensive\\u000a national salary databases.

  16. Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

  17. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Pau, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

  18. The NASA trend analysis program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, J. Larry; Weinstock, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The four main areas of the NASA trend analysis program (problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending) are defined and illustrated with examples from Space Shuttle applications. Emphasis is on the programmatic-trending component of the program and several of the statistical techniques used. Also described is the NASA safety, reliability, maintainability, and quality assurance management information center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues.

  19. NATIONAL STATUS AND TRENDS PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Since 1984, the National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program has monitored, on a national scale, spatial and temporal trends of chemical contamination and biological responses to that contamination. Temporal trends are being monitored through the Mussel Watch project that analyzes m...

  20. Reconciliation of global temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benestad, R. E.

    2012-03-01

    In recent years there has been a public debate about whether the rate of global warming has waned, prompting the paper 'Is the climate warming or cooling?' in Geophysical Research Letters by Easterling and Wehner (2009). This question has also attracted attention in wider scientific circles, and in a recent paper in Science, Solomon et al (2010) suggested that a decrease in stratospheric water vapour concentrations has slowed the global surface temperature rate between 2000 and 2009. Yet another study by Kaufmann et al (2011) argued that the 'hiatus' in the global warming coincided with near constant combined anthropogenic and natural forcings. The reason: a declining solar insolation, a shift to La Niña conditions and a rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions have masked the effect from rising greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs). So, what is new? In the paper 'Global temperature evolution 1979-2010', Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) re-examine the situation. Whereas Kaufmann's group only examined the global temperature record from the Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit (HadCRUT3; Brohan et al 2006) in the United Kingdom, Foster and Rahmstorf present an analysis of the range of available historical temperature records, both from surface thermometers and satellite-based remote sensing. There is one caveat associated with the analysis that Kaufmann's group carried out, which is that the HadCRUT3 record does not fully capture recent enhanced warming over the Arctic, thereby underestimating the evolution of the true global mean compared with other sources. Other analyses, such as the one from NASA/GISS (GISSTEMP; Hansen et al 2010) and those based on atmospheric models (e.g. Kalnay et al 1996), cover the Arctic region better by interpolating the values surrounding the data void or taking physics into account. These, and independent indices such as sea-ice extent (Kinnard et al 2011), ice melting over Greenland (Mernild et al 2009) and permafrost thawing/warming (Isaksen et al 2007), all point to unusual warm conditions in the Arctic. Foster and Rahmstorf examine global mean temperature trends after accounting for variations associated with three different naturally occurring phenomena: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability. They used a similar approach to Lean and Rind (2008), but unlike Solomon et al (2010), they did not account for stratospheric water vapour concentrations. Their findings agree with Kaufmann et al (2011) who argue that this factor plays a minor role. Foster and Rahmstorf did not need to account for anthropogenic sulfur aerosols, as a fairly linear warming trend became discernable once the ENSO, solar activity and volcanism were accounted for. There is always a risk that multiple regression analysis may misattribute significance to unrelated factors (Benestad and Schmidt 2009), and Foster and Rahmstorf made some efforts to test whether their results could be affected by such spurious effects, making their results more convincing. Unfortunately, this is not always the case for papers in the scientific literature, and sometimes papers appear in journals even if they cannot be justified on scientific grounds (i.e. Wagner 2011). An interesting aside, however, is that similar physical principles implying a warming resulting from higher CO2 concentrations also are the basis for estimating the temperature from the microwave channels measured by satellite-borne instruments. The fact that Foster and Rahmstorf reconcile the trends seen in the in situ surface and satellite-borne remote sensing data brings out the consistency with the physics believed to be central to global warming. In my view, Foster and Rahmstorf do not come up with new ground-breaking results, but rather a view that fits in with the tacit knowledge about climate. The most interesting aspect is perhaps the different implications for effects associated with stratospheric water vapour and sulfur aerosols. It is also reassuring to see reasonably good agreement between the different data sources, suggesting both r

  1. Synchronized trend shift of Sahel rainfall with global oceanic evaporation occurred in the mid-1980s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diawara, Alima; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Oshima, Kazuhiro; Nishikawa, Hatsumi; Ando, Yuta

    2015-04-01

    Trend shift of Sahel rainfall from decrease to increase occurred in the mid-1980s. This trend shift and its relation to global oceans were investigated by data analyses. We discovered that the Sahel trend shift was synchronized with the trend shift of global oceanic evaporation, with time series like a '' shape, i.e., from decrease to increase. Land precipitation also tended to have the '' shaped trend shift except America continents. The trend shift of the oceanic evaporation was mainly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), extending to the subtropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) including the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Because the increase of oceanic evaporation strengthens atmospheric moisture transport toward the land, the synchronized trend shifts of the oceanic evaporation with the land precipitation is reasonable. Surface scalar winds over the oceans in the SH had the '' shaped trend shift. Sea surface temperature (SST) also had the trend shifts in the mid-1980s: a '/\\' shaped in SH, while '' shaped in the NH. In spite of the opposite SST trend shift of the NH to the SH, the evaporation trend shift was in the '' shape in the both hemispheres. Since strong wind promotes evaporation cooling of the SST, the SH wind trend shift strengthened the trend shifts of both SSTs and the evaporation. Because high SST anomalies promote the evaporation, the NH SST trend shift strengthened the evaporation trend shift.

  2. GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Hansen; R. Ruedy; M. Sato; K. Lo

    2010-01-01

    We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global

  3. Determination of local concentration of H{sub 2}O molecules and gas temperature in the process of hydrogen - oxygen gas mixture heating by means of linear and nonlinear laser spectroscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Kozlov, D N; Kobtsev, V D; Stel'makh, O M; Smirnov, Valery V; Stepanov, E V [A M Prokhorov General Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-01-31

    Employing the methods of linear absorption spectroscopy and nonlinear four-wave mixing spectroscopy using laserinduced gratings we have simultaneously measured the local concentrations of H{sub 2}O molecules and the gas temperature in the process of the H{sub 2} - O{sub 2} mixture heating. During the measurements of the deactivation rates of pulsed-laser excited singlet oxygen O{sub 2} (b {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +}{sub g}) in collisions with H{sub 2} in the range 294 - 850 K, the joint use of the two methods made it possible to determine the degree of hydrogen oxidation at a given temperature. As the mixture is heated, H{sub 2}O molecules are formed by 'dark' reactions of H{sub 2} with O{sub 2} in the ground state. The experiments have shown that the measurements of tunable diode laser radiation absorption along an optical path through the inhomogeneously heated gas mixture in a cell allows high-accuracy determination of the local H{sub 2}O concentration in the O{sub 2} laser excitation volume, if the gas temperature in this volume is known. When studying the collisional deactivation of O{sub 2} (b {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +}{sub g}) molecules, the necessary measurements of the local temperature can be implemented using laser-induced gratings, arising due to spatially periodic excitation of O{sub 2} (X{sup 3}{Sigma}{sup -}{sub g}) molecules to the b {sup 1}{Sigma}{sup +}{sub g} state by radiation of the pump laser of the four-wave mixing spectrometer. (laser spectroscopy)

  4. Linear Filters

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Holden, Joshua

    Created by Joshua Holden for the Connected Curriculum Project, the purpose of this module is to explore a common application of difference equations and linear algebra in electrical engineering and signal processing. The is part of a larger collection of modules hosted by Duke University.

  5. Linear Equations

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2004-01-01

    This narrated demonstration introduces students to linear equations with one variable, their visual representation, and how to solve them. After the clear instructions, students are allowed to test what they've learned by solving two equations on their own. The lesson is concluded with a review of the objective and summary of the key points.

  6. Total ozone trends over low latitude Indian stations

    SciTech Connect

    Kundu, N.; Jain, M. [National Physical Lab., New Delhi (India)

    1993-12-01

    The network of Dobson spectrometers in India have been measuring total ozone over several stations for the last three decades. Measurements over three stations Srinagar, Delhi and Kodaikanal are considered for trend analysis and its latitudinal variation. The data series extends over the period 1965-91 except for Srinagar where data is vailable only upto 1988. A statistical model having terms for different variabilities such as linear trend, six monthly, seasonal and biennial oscillations, as well as, long term solar variability is used. Since the data base is the monthly average ozone value, short term noise is eliminated. As the calculated and observed ozone data agree with each other the linear trend could be obtained from the model. The trend near the equator, though small, is positive, decreasing to negative values at higher latitudes. The analysis of 11 years, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data by other workers does not show the positive trend in the equatorial region. The trend of Dobson data near 30 deg N latitude is less negative than that obtained from TOMS data and agrees better with the theoretical model.

  7. Trends in PET imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Moses, William W.

    2000-11-01

    Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is a well established method for obtaining information on the status of certain organs within the human body or in animals. This paper presents an overview of recent trends PET instrumentation. Significant effort is being expended to develop new PET detector modules, especially those capable of measuring depth of interaction. This is aided by recent advances in scintillator and pixellated photodetector technology. The other significant area of effort is development of special purpose PET cameras (such as for imaging breast cancer or small animals) or cameras that have the ability to image in more than one modality (such as PET / SPECT or PET / X-Ray CT).

  8. Application trends for photovoltaics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macomber, H. L.

    This paper presents the results of studies by MONEGON to develop forecasts of PV system application markets. These forecasts consider economic factors such as conventional energy costs now and in the future, the relationship between world economic conditions, as represented by each country's Gross National Product, and energy demand; the cost potential for PV systems technologies; and the application trends in the past and future. The application sectors analyzed are: remote, stand-alone systems; residential systems; service/commercial/industrial/institutional; and central utility systems. An overall market forecast is developed and this forecast is segmented into the four market sectors.

  9. MetroTrends Blog

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The Metro Trends section of the Urban Institute's site contains up-to-date information on metropolitan economies, complete with interactive maps, expert commentaries, and datasets. One of the highlights here is their well-crafted blog, which offers short and pensive observations from their various affiliates, associates, and policy analysts. Recent posts include thoughtful meditations on the racial wealth gap, evidence-based policy, and the prospects for Detroit's fiscal future. Each post contains links to additional resources, reports, websites, and other germane materials. Also, visitors can leave their own observations and share each post using a range of social media tools.

  10. Trends in Neurocognitive Aging

    PubMed Central

    Grady, Cheryl

    2013-01-01

    Preface The availability of neuroimaging technology has spurred a marked increase in the human cognitive neuroscience literature, including the study of cognitive aging. Although there is a growing consensus that the aging brain retains considerable plasticity of function, currently measured primarily by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging, it is less clear how age differences in brain activity relate to cognitive performance. The field also is hampered by the complexity of the aging process itself and the large number of factors that are influenced by age. In this review, current trends and unresolved issues in the cognitive neuroscience of aging are discussed. PMID:22714020

  11. Magnetic Spacing Trends: From LMR to PMR and Beyond

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bruno Marchon; Terry Olson

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines trends in magnetic spacing in the hard disk drive industry for the last 15 years or so, as we transitioned from inductive to magnetoresistive (MR), giant magnetoresistive (GMR), and tunneling magnetoresistive (TMR) heads, and from longitudinal to perpendicular recording. Historical data show surprisingly good scaling relationships between areal density, linear density, track density, bit aspect ratio (BAR),

  12. The Memory Hierarchy l Storage technologies and trends

    E-print Network

    Badrinath, B. R.

    1 1 The Memory Hierarchy l Topics l Storage technologies and trends l Locality of reference l Caching in the memory hierarchy CS211 Computer Architecture 2 Memory until now... l We've relied on a very simple model of memory for most this class l Main Memory is a linear array of bytes that can be accessed

  13. Mapping Rainfall Trends in Hawai';i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.

    2013-12-01

    Spatial patterns of rainfall in Hawai';i are among the most diverse in the world; ranges on a single island rival those of continents. As the climate warms, it is essential to understand how rainfall has changed so that we can better understand possible future climate changes. This is especially important in a small island context where resources are limited, and understanding the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater supplies is crucial. Utilizing Hawai';i's extensive network of rain gauges (over 2,000 stations have operated since the mid-1800s), data screening, homogeneity testing, and gap filling were performed to produce a serially complete dataset for as many stations as possible. This dataset was used to develop a set of month-year rainfall maps for Hawai';i from 1920-2007. Maps of rainfall values and anomalies (departures from the most recent 30-year mean) were derived for all major Hawaiian Islands at a 250 m resolution. Using this time series of maps, linear trends for the entire period (1920-2007) and the most recent 30-year period available (1978-2007) and the corresponding significance levels (p-values) were calculated at every pixel across the state, accounting for the effects of autocorrelation, for each month and each 3- and 6-month season. These trends and p-values were then mapped to produce spatially continuous trend maps of Hawai';i. The results show drying trends on all islands, with Hawai';i island experiencing the largest significant long-term declines annually (island mean percent change of -1.39% per decade since 1920) and Maui island experiencing the largest short-term declines annually (-8.10% per decade change since 1978). The seasonal analysis reveals that the largest changes are seen in winter and summer months (clear drying trends on all islands), while spring and fall seasons experience more neutral or positive changes (fewer significant trends). Most of the significant declines in long-term winter rainfall are seen in the windward mountainous high-rainfall areas, while most of the significant summer declines are seen in dry leeward areas. These results are in agreement with previous studies of trends at individual stations or for indices representing the entire state. However, this study is the first to show the spatial details of rainfall change over time, which is critically important information for water resource managers in Hawai';i.

  14. Determination of the percentage of homopolymer component in Ziegler/Natta catalyst linear low-density polyethylene resins using high-temperature cell Fourier transform infrared and partial least squares quantitative analysis technique.

    PubMed

    Cossar, Marlee; Teh, Joo; Kivisto, Annikki; Mackenzie, Jason

    2005-03-01

    A new method for the determination of the percentage of homopolymer component, using high-temperature cell Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) by partial least squares (PLS) quantitative analysis technique, was developed and applied to Ziegler Natta linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE). The method is based on the IR spectrum changes between the 730 cm(-1) band and 720 cm(-1) band at the temperature of 110 degrees C, which is near the melting point of the polyethylene. The HD % (the percentage of high-density component, i.e., the percentage of homopolymer component) results obtained by CTREF (CRYSTAF in TREF mode) technique are used as the input data together with the respective FT-IR spectra for PLS analyses to establish a calibration curve. The PLS quality is characterized by a correlation coefficient of 0.997 (cross-validation) using four factors and a root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.772. The HD% of the unknown can then be predicted by the PLS software from the unknown FT-IR spectrum. A control resin was tested seven times by CTREF and FT-IR. The HD% of the control resin was 28.59+/-0.88% by CTREF and 29.05+/-2.37% by FT-IR. It was found that the method was applicable for the same comonomer type of LLDPE within a melt index range and density. PMID:15901310

  15. Filtering ionosphere parameters to detect trends linked to anthropogenic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, Ana G.

    2014-12-01

    The great concern about the global warming observed in the troposphere has generated a large interest in the study of long-term trends in the ionosphere since the early 1990s, which has now become a significant topic in global change investigations. Some research works link ionosphere trends to anthropogenic sources such as the increase in greenhouse gas concentration, and others to natural causes such as solar and geomagnetic activity long-term changes, and secular variations in the Earth's main magnetic field. In all the cases, in order to analyze ionospheric trends, solar activity effect must be filtered out first since around 90% of ionosphere parameter variance is due to solar variations. The filtering process can generate `spurious' trends in the filtered data series which may lead to erroneous conclusions. foF2 data series which include solar cycle 23 are analyzed in the present work in order to detect the effect of different filtering procedures on the determination of long-term trends. In particular, solar cycle 23 seems to have had an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission greater than that deduced from traditional solar EUV proxies during the maximum epoch and lower during the minimum epoch. When solar activity is filtered assessing the residuals of a linear regression between foF2 and Rz, or between foF2 and F10.7, this fact may bias trend values especially because it is at the end of the time series. The length of the period considered for trend assessment, the saturation and hysteresis effect of some ionosphere parameters, and the solar EUV proxy used are also considered in this study in order to quantify a possible spurious trend that may result as a by-product of a filtering process. Since trends expected as a consequence of anthropogenic effects are relatively small, these spurious effects may surely mask, or enhance, trends expected from anthropogenic origins.

  16. Recent trends in aerosol optical properties derived from AERONET measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.; Carlson, B. E.; Dubovik, O.; Lacis, A. A.

    2014-06-01

    The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) has been providing high-quality retrievals of aerosol optical properties from the surface at worldwide locations for more than a decade. Many sites have continuous and consistent records for more than 10 years, which enables the investigation of long-term trends of aerosol properties at these locations. In this study, we present trend analysis of AERONET data at 63 selected locations. In addition to commonly studied parameters such as Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström Exponent (AE), we also focus on Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (ABS), Scattering Optical Depth (SCT), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and the Absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE). Two statistical methods are used to detect and estimate the trend: Mann-Kendall test associated with Sen's slope and linear least square fitting. Their results agree well in terms of the significance of the trend for the majority of the cases. The results indicate that Europe and North America experienced a uniform decrease in AOD and SCT, while significant (> 90%) increases of these two parameters are found for Kanpur, India. Most of European and North American sites also show negative trends for ABS, as well as three East Asian stations. The reduction in ABS results in positive SSA trends for these locations. The increase of SCT also leads to a positive SSA trend for Kanpur. Negative SSA trends are mostly found over South America, Australia and a few West European stations, which are mainly attributed to the increase of absorption. Fewer stations are found with significant trends for AE and AAE. In general, the trends do not exhibit obvious seasonality for the majority of the parameters and stations.

  17. A GCM Simulation of Global Climate Trends: 1950-1988.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, I. N.

    1994-05-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model has been forced with observed mean monthly sea surface temperatures for the period 1950-1988 and the trends in annual mean fields from an ensemble of three such experiments analyzed. During this period, Northern Hemisphere oceans cooled while the southern oceans warmed. The simulated changes in land-surface temperature over this period are less than observations would indicate, suggesting that factors other than just SST changes, including greenhouse warming, may have been operating. The results show decreases in rainfall for North Africa consistent with the observed desiccation of the Sahel region over the same period. These decreases are statistically significant but not as severe as observed. Simulated rainfall trends for other regions are less definite but are suggestive that SST changes may have contributed to some of the observed trends. The use of global-scale sensitivities based on precipitation changes as a function of temperature changes is demonstrated to be unsatisfactory in this particular study.Simulated trends in the global circulation reveal a tendency towards a boreal winter-type circulation in which atmospheric moisture is transported from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere, while a net mass exchange occurs in the reverse direction. Trends in upper- and lower-level winds indicate a strengthening of the Walker circulation in the Pacific. While some of these trends are consistent with available observations, there are certain observed features that are not reproduced and therefore not explained by the SST changes.

  18. Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

    2015-09-01

    We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

  19. Linear Dependence and Linear Independence

    E-print Network

    PRETEX (Halifax NS) #1 1054 1999 Mar 05 10:59:16

    2010-02-12

    Feb 16, 2007 ... (7, 2, 5). (3,2, 1). (3,2, 0). (1, 1, 0). (1, 1, 1). (7, 2, 0) v3. 4v1 v2 v1 v2 ..... Corollary 4.5.12 is actually true even if the set of vectors in question is .... The set of functions {f1,f2,...,fk} is linearly independent on an interval I if and.

  20. Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yang; Havlin, Shlomo

    2015-01-01

    The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP1), NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). In our assessment, we compare the linear trends, the fluctuations around the trends, the persistence properties and the significance level of warming trends in the reanalysis data with the observational ones. We find that NCEP1 and NCEP2 show spurious warming trends in all parts of Antarctica except the Peninsula, while ERA-Interim is quite reliable except at Amundsen-Scott. To investigate the persistence of the data sets, we consider the lag-1 autocorrelation $C(1)$ and the Hurst exponent. While $C(1)$ varies quite erratically in differ...

  1. Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherwood, Steven C.; Nishant, Nidhi

    2015-05-01

    We present an updated version of the radiosonde dataset homogenized by Iterative Universal Kriging (IUKv2), now extended through February 2013, following the method used in the original version (Sherwood et al 2008 Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data J. Clim. 21 5336–52). This method, in effect, performs a multiple linear regression of the data onto a structural model that includes both natural variability, trends, and time-changing instrument biases, thereby avoiding estimation biases inherent in traditional homogenization methods. One modification now enables homogenized winds to be provided for the first time. This, and several other small modifications made to the original method sometimes affect results at individual stations, but do not strongly affect broad-scale temperature trends. Temperature trends in the updated data show three noteworthy features. First, tropical warming is equally strong over both the 1959–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, increasing smoothly and almost moist-adiabatically from the surface (where it is roughly 0.14 K/decade) to 300 hPa (where it is about 0.25 K/decade over both periods), a pattern very close to that in climate model predictions. This contradicts suggestions that atmospheric warming has slowed in recent decades or that it has not kept up with that at the surface. Second, as shown in previous studies, tropospheric warming does not reach quite as high in the tropics and subtropics as predicted in typical models. Third, cooling has slackened in the stratosphere such that linear trends since 1979 are about half as strong as reported earlier for shorter periods. Wind trends over the period 1979–2012 confirm a strengthening, lifting and poleward shift of both subtropical westerly jets; the Northern one shows more displacement and the southern more intensification, but these details appear sensitive to the time period analysed. There is also a trend toward more easterly winds in the middle and upper troposphere of the deep tropics.

  2. Stabilizing blue phase liquid crystals with linearly polarized UV light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Daming; Yuan, Jiamin; Schadt, Martin; Yan, Jing; Wu, Shin-Tson

    2015-03-01

    Polymer-stabilized blue-phase liquid crystal (PS-BPLC) has become an increasingly important technology trend for information display and photonic applications. BPLC exhibits several attractive features, such as reasonably wide temperature range, submillisecond gray-to-gray response time, no need for alignment layer, optically isotropic voltageoff state, and large cell gap tolerance when an in-plane switching (IPS) cell is employed. However, some bottlenecks such as high operation voltage, relatively low transmittance, and noticeable hysteresis and prolonged response time at high field region for IPS mode, still remain to be overcome before widespread application of BPLC can be realized. To reduce operation voltage, both new BPLC materials and new device structures have been investigated. In this paper, we demonstrate the stabilization a photopolymer-embedded blue phase liquid crystal precursor using a linearly polarized UV light for first time. When the UV polarization axis is perpendicular to the stripe electrodes of an IPS cell, anisotropic polymer networks are formed through the linear photo-polymerization process and the electrostriction effect is suppressed. As a result, the measured hysteresis is dramatically reduced from 6.95% to 0.36% and the response time shortened by ~2X compared to unpolarized UV exposure. To induce larger anisotropy in polymer networks for mitigating the electrostriction effect, high-intensity linearly polarized UV exposure is preferred. It is foreseeable this method will guide future BPLC device and material development as well as manufacturing process. The dawn of BPLCD is near.

  3. Trend Mining in Social Networks: From Trend Identification to Visualisation

    E-print Network

    Coenen, Frans

    stamped data collections (Kohavi et al., 2002; Lent et al., 1997). The work described in this paper is the visualisation of trend migrations (changes) that feature within time stamped network data. The framework of the work described is this paper, is therefore the identification of trends in dynamic social networks. We

  4. DCCPS: TCRB: TReND: About TReND

    Cancer.gov

    In addition to the TReND intranet, the project team is has developed and launched a publicly available web portal, which will help to serve as a legacy for the efforts of TReND’s working groups and projects.

  5. Optimal linear Glauber model

    E-print Network

    Shaon Sahoo; Soumya Kanti Ganguly

    2015-02-01

    Contrary to the actual nonlinear Glauber model (NLGM), the linear Glauber model (LGM) is exactly solvable, although the detailed balance condition is not generally satisfied. This motivates us to address the issue of writing the transition rate ($w_j$) in a best possible linear form such that the mean squared error in satisfying the detailed balance condition is least. The advantage of this work is that, by studying the LGM analytically, we will be able to anticipate how the kinetic properties of an arbitrary Ising system depend on the temperature and the coupling constants. The analytical expressions for the optimal values of the parameters involved in the linear $w_j$ are obtained using a simple Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse matrix. This approach is quite general, in principle applicable to any system and can reproduce the exact results for one dimensional Ising system. In the continuum limit, we get a linear time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) equation from the Glauber's microscopic model of non-conservative dynamics. We analyze the critical and dynamic properties of the model, and show that most of the important results obtained in different studies can be reproduced by our new mathematical approach. We will also show in this paper that the effect of magnetic field can easily be studied within our approach; in particular, we show that the inverse of relaxation time changes quadratically with (weak) magnetic field and that the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is valid for our model.

  6. Linear Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Context image for PIA03667 Linear Clouds

    These clouds are located near the edge of the south polar region. The cloud tops are the puffy white features in the bottom half of the image.

    Image information: VIS instrument. Latitude -80.1N, Longitude 52.1E. 17 meter/pixel resolution.

    Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time.

    NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey project, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  7. The Holocene temperature conundrum.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang; Rosenthal, Yair; Zhang, Xu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Timmermann, Axel; Smith, Robin S; Lohmann, Gerrit; Zheng, Weipeng; Elison Timm, Oliver

    2014-08-26

    A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198-1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models. PMID:25114253

  8. The Holocene temperature conundrum

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang; Rosenthal, Yair; Zhang, Xu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Timmermann, Axel; Smith, Robin S.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Zheng, Weipeng; Elison Timm, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models. PMID:25114253

  9. Temperature variation of the structure factor of liquid helium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isihara, A.

    1981-07-01

    The temperature variation of the structure factor S( q) of liquid helium follows S(q) = h?2q 2{{1 + 2f(?)}}/{2}m? , where f(?) is the Bose distribution function of the quasiparticles of energy ?( q). For very low temperatures, the formula predicts that S( q) increases linearly with q starting from a constant, S(0) = {kT}/{mc 2}. This trend changes at temperatures higher than T I = {c h?}/{k}?24? 1, where ? 1 is the coefficient to q2 of the energy dispersion relation. Therefore, above around 2.78 K, a minimum of S( q) is expected. These theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the recent experimental data of Sears, Svensson, Woods and Martel based on neutron diffraction and of Hallock obtained by X-ray scattering.

  10. CellPress: Trends Journals Online

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Sixteen review journals from Elsevier Trends Journals are now available online to BioMedNet members (BioMedNet membership is free but requires registration) via trends Online. Journals included in this service are Trends in Biochemical Sciences, Trends in Biotechnology, Trends in Cell Biology, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Drug Discovery Today, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Trends in Endocrinology, Trends in Genetics, Immunology Today, Trends in Microbiology, Molecular Medicine Today, Trends in Neuroscience, Parasitology Today, Pharmaceutical Science & Technology Today, Trends in Pharmacological Sciences, and Trends in Plant Science. These journals are freely accessible until May 1, 1999. Afterwards, access is available only to subscribers of each particular Trends journal. Full-text articles from January 1998 can be viewed in both HTML and .pdf formats.

  11. Climatology and trend of the extratropical dynamical and thermal tropopauses in ERA-40

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamorro, Moises G.; Saenz, Guadalupe; Barriopedro, David; Añel, Juan A.

    2010-05-01

    A climatological comparison of the extratropical tropopause pressure obtained from the dynamical and thermal definitions is presented using the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1960-2001 and Northern Hemisphere. Temperature (T) at isobaric levels between 500 hPa and 70 hPa and isentropic potential vorticity (PV?) between 270 and 440 K were extracted from the 60 vertical levels of the model at 2.5°x2.5° and 6 hours resolution. Following the WMO criterion, the thermal tropopause is defined as the first layer where the temperature lapse rate is less than 2 K km-1 for a depth of at least 2 km. The dynamical tropopause is determined from the lowest vertical level where PV? exceeds a critical value. A critical threshold of PV? = 3.5 PVU was adopted, following Hoerling et al (1991). The pressure at the thermal (dynamical) tropopause was computed by linear interpolation assuming that p varies with T1-k (?1-k). Results reveal good agreement between both definitions. Maximum discrepancies tend to occur at subtropical latitudes. Both definitions capture well global and regional signatures of the atmospheric circulation, including strong gradients of the tropopause pressure around the subtropical jet stream and maximum standard deviations over preferred regions of storm tracks. A linear regression applied to the extratropical seasonal mean values confirms the decreasing trend in tropopause pressure for the second half of the twentieth century.

  12. OF ACHIEVEMENT Trends in International

    E-print Network

    Huang, Jianyu

    20YEARS OF ACHIEVEMENT TRENDS Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study TIMSS Advanced assessment framework covers algebra, calculus, and geometry in advanced mathematics. In physics, it covers achievement at the fourth and eighth grades. TIMSS 2015 will be the sixth assessment, resulting in a 20-year

  13. Trend testing in reliability engineering

    Microsoft Academic Search

    George A. Bohoris

    1996-01-01

    Considers trend testing in the context of reliability\\/survival applications. Suggests that the very common tendency in reliability testing to fit lifetime distributions to reliability\\/maintenance data might occasionally be invalid. Details the appropriate methods to assess the validity, or otherwise, of such a procedure. More specifically, discusses ROCOF curves and the Laplace test for trend, and demonstrates their use by means

  14. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  15. "Children's Digest" and Societal Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eckart, Karen Sue

    The purpose of this research project was to determine if, like books, the content of children's magazines changes to reflect current societal trends. The study used the method of content analysis and was limited to one children's magazine, "Children's Digest." Certain trends in children's literature were identified through the literature search,…

  16. Active solar energy market trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. M. Freidman; P. E. Mihlmester

    1983-01-01

    The analyses presented in this paper summarize the U.S. active solar market shifts or trends as depicted by the 1980 and 1981 market surveys developed for the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The trends identified and analyzed represent the first such analyses based on extensive survey data obtained from questionnaires sent out annually to

  17. General Achievement Trends: Rhode Island

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center on Education Policy, 2009

    2009-01-01

    This general achievement trends profile includes information that the Center on Education Policy (CEP) and the Human Resources Research Organization (HumRRO) obtained from states from fall 2008 through April 2009. Included herein are: (1) Bullet points summarizing key findings about achievement trends in that state at three performance…

  18. Petrick Technology Trends Of Manufacturing

    E-print Network

    #12;323 Petrick Technology Trends chapter 9 The Future Of Manufacturing Irene Petrick Technology Trends This chapter is a story about the future of manufacturing based on three predictions: · that firms manufacturing will become commercially competitive across a wide range of industries and will support the use

  19. Trends in Family Child Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neugebauer, Roger

    2011-01-01

    The author presents insights from various readers of "ExchangeEveryDay" regarding trends in the world of family child care. Kathleen Reticker of Acre Family Child Care in Lowell, Massachusetts thinks an increasing trend in Family Child Care is the pressure to emulate a Center, instead of seeing family child care as a different model. Over the…

  20. HRD Future and Trends. Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2002

    This document contains three papers from a symposium on the future of human resource development (HRD) and trends in HRD. "Searching for the Future of Human Resource Development" (Wendy E.A. Ruona, Susan A. Lynham, Tom Chermack) reports on a survey of 55 HRD and HRD-related practitioners and academics that examined trends in the HRD profession,…

  1. Trends Shaping Education--2008 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2008

    2008-01-01

    This new biennial publication presents the latest available information on 26 major current trends in education, grouped in 9 broad themes (ageing, global challenges, the new economic landscape, work and jobs, the learning society, ICT, citizenship and the state, social connections and values, and sustainable affluence). For each trend, there is a…

  2. [Population trends and poverty].

    PubMed

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs. PMID:12178231

  3. Trends in ethnopharmocology.

    PubMed

    Gilani, Anwarul Hassan; Rahman, Attar-ur

    2005-08-22

    The use of plants, plant extracts or plant-derived pure chemicals to treat disease is a therapeutic modality, which has stood the test of time. Indeed today many pharmacological classes of drugs include a natural product prototype. Aspirin, atropine, ephedrine, digoxin, morphine, quinine, reserpine and tubocurarine are a few examples of drugs, which were originally discovered through the study of traditional cures and folk knowledge of indigenous people. There is a revival of interest in herbal products (botanicals) at a global level and the conventional medicine is now beginning to accept the use of botanicals once they are scientifically validated. Ispaghula, Garlic, Ginseng, Ginger, Ginkgo, St. John's Wort, and Saw palmetto are a few examples of botanicals which are gaining popularity amongst modern physicians and this trend is likely to continue partly due to high cost involved in the development of patentable chemical drugs. There is growing evidence to show that medicinal plants contain synergistic and/or side-effects neutralizing combinations. Ethnopharmacology has already played important role in the development of conventional medicine and is likely to play more significant role in the years to come. A team work amongst ethnobotanists, ethnopharmacologists, physicians and phytochemists is essential for the fruitful outcome on medicinal plants research. While the ethnopharmacologists have a greater role to play in the rationalization of combination of activities, the phytochemist's role will slightly shift towards standardization of botanicals. PMID:16127805

  4. Temperature dependent ablation threshold in silicon using ultrashort laser pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorstensen, Jostein; Erik Foss, Sean

    2012-11-01

    We have experimentally investigated the ablation threshold in silicon as a function of temperature when applying ultrashort laser pulses at three wavelengths. By varying the temperature of a silicon substrate from room temperature to 320 °C, we observe that the ablation threshold for a 3 ps pulse using a wavelength of 1030 nm drops from 0.43 J/cm2 to 0.24 J/cm2, a reduction of 43%. For a wavelength of 515 nm, the ablation threshold drops from 0.22 J/cm2 to 0.15 J/cm2, a reduction of 35%. The observed ablation threshold for pulses at 343 nm remains constant with temperature, at 0.10 J/cm2. These results indicate that substrate heating is a useful technique for lowering the ablation threshold in industrial silicon processing using ultrashort laser pulses in the IR or visible wavelength range. In order to investigate and explain the observed trends, we apply the two-temperature model, a thermodynamic model for investigation of the interaction between silicon and ultrashort laser pulses. Applying the two-temperature model implies thermal equilibrium between optical and acoustic phonons. On the time scales encountered herein, this need not be the case. However, as discussed in the article, the two-temperature model provides valuable insight into the physical processes governing the interaction between the laser light and the silicon. The simulations indicate that ablation occurs when the number density of excited electrons reaches the critical electron density, while the lattice remains well below vaporization temperature. The simulated laser fluence required to reach critical electron density is also found to be temperature dependent. The dominant contributor to increased electron density is, in the majority of the investigated cases, the linear absorption coefficient. Two-photon absorption and impact ionization also generate carriers, but to a lesser extent. As the linear absorption coefficient is temperature dependent, we find that the simulated reduction in ablation threshold with increased substrate temperature is linked to the temperature dependence of the linear absorption coefficient. Another factor influencing the ablation threshold is the wavelength dependence of the interaction with the excited electron plasma. This wavelength dependence can explain that we observe experimentally similar ablation thresholds for a wavelength of 1030 nm at 320 °C and for 515 nm at room temperature, even though the linear absorption coefficient in the latter case is much higher.

  5. Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Chris

    2013-01-01

    This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year?1 and downward trends in rainfall of ? 0.4 mm month?1 year?1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

  6. Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J., Jr.; Wolock, D.M.

    1997-01-01

    This study examines the statistical likelihood of detecting a trend in annual runoff given an assumed change in mean annual runoff, the underlying year-to-year variability in runoff, and serial correlation of annual runoff. Means, standard deviations, and lag-1 serial correlations of annual runoff were computed for 585 stream gages in the conterminous United States, and these statistics were used to compute the probability of detecting a prescribed trend in annual runoff. Assuming a linear 20% change in mean annual runoff over a 100 yr period and a significance level of 95%, the average probability of detecting a significant trend was 28% among the 585 stream gages. The largest probability of detecting a trend was in the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes region, the northeastern U.S., the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains. The smallest probability of trend detection was in the central and southwestern U.S., and in Florida. Low probabilities of trend detection were associated with low ratios of mean annual runoff to the standard deviation of annual runoff and with high lag-1 serial correlation in the data.

  7. Altitude and solar activity dependence of 1967-2005 thermospheric density trends derived from orbital drag

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmert, J. T.

    2015-04-01

    We examine 1967-2005 thermospheric mass density trends (as well as 1967-2013 trends) derived from satellite orbit data, as a function of altitude, solar flux, and geomagnetic activity. At 400 km altitude, the estimated 1967-2005 trend is -2.0 ± 0.5% per decade. The estimated trends become increasingly negative with increasing height between 250 and 575 km, suggesting an exospheric temperature trend of -1 to -2 K per decade, which is much smaller than temperature trends that have been inferred from ground-based incoherent scatter radar measurements. The orbit-derived trend height profiles are in good agreement with model simulations of the enhanced cooling that results from increasing concentration of CO2 in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In contrast to earlier results, the solar flux dependence of the estimated trends is weak, relative to the trend uncertainty. There is some indication that the trends may be stronger during very low geomagnetic activity conditions. Estimation of the solar flux and geomagnetic activity dependence of the trends is complicated by monotonic decreases in these drivers over the past four solar minima together with the CO2 increase, all of which drive interminima decreases in density.

  8. Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

  9. hp calculators HP 50g Trend Lines

    E-print Network

    Vetter, Frederick J.

    hp calculators HP 50g Trend Lines The STAT menu Trend Lines Practice predicting the future using trend lines #12;hp calculators HP 50g Trend Lines hp calculators - 2 - HP 50g Trend Lines The STAT menu, a CHOOSE box is displayed with a number of problem areas within statistics where the HP 50g can be applied

  10. A microcomputer-controlled linear heater

    SciTech Connect

    Schuck, V.; Rahimi, S. (Department of Physics and Astronomy, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, California (USA))

    1991-10-01

    In this note the circuits and principles of operation of a relatively simple and inexpensive linear temperature ramp generator are described. The upper-temperature limit and the heating rate are controlled by an Apple II microcomputer. The temperature versus time is displayed on the screen and may be plotted by an {ital x}-{ital y} plotter.

  11. Monitoring grizzly bear population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Knight, R.R.; Blanchard, B.M.

    1986-01-01

    A simple different equation model was developed to provide additional perspective on observed mortality and trend data on Yellowstone grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis). Records of mortalities of adult females from 1959 to 1985 were utilized, in conjunction with data on females with cubs. The overall downward trend of observed numbers of females with cubs generally agrees with the model calculations but does not adequately reflect mortality from 1970 to 1974. The model may be useful in developing a composite index of population trend.

  12. European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen; Barbosa, Paulo

    2015-04-01

    Drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. From a meteorological point of view, drought can be induced and/or reinforced by lack of precipitation, hot temperatures and enhanced evapotranspiration. Starting from a multi-indicator approach, we present European-wide meteorological drought climatologies and trends for the period 1950-2012. As input data, we used precipitation and temperature data from the E-OBS (spatial resolution: 0.25° × 0.25°) gridded dataset of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D). Precipitation, temperature, and the derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been used to compute three drought indicators: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). SPI, SPEI, and RDI, calculated for 12-month accumulation period, have been rationally merged into a combined indicator and this quantity has been used to obtain drought frequency, duration, and severity for the entire Europe. We identified the following drought hotspots: Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and Russia in 1951-1970, no particular hotspot in 1971-1990, the Mediterranean region and the Baltic Republics in 1991-2010. A linear trend analysis shows that drought variables increased in the period 1950-2012 in South-Western Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean and Carpathian regions, with precipitation decrease and PET increase as drivers. Drought variables show a decrease in Scandinavia, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia: precipitation increase is the main driver. In Central Europe and the Balkans, drought variables show a moderate increase, for the significant PET increase outbalances a not significant precipitation increase.

  13. The role of Pacific Trade Wind trends in driving ocean heat uptake and global hiatuses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maher, Nicola; England, Matthew; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Spence, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Previous work has noted the importance of the tropical Pacific in modulating global temperatures and in offsetting anthropogenic surface warming over decadal periods. This project investigates the role of Pacific Trade Wind changes in modulating the exchange of heat into and out of the sub-surface tropical Pacific Ocean. In particular, the trade wind acceleration observed since the early 1990's is examined, with a focus on ocean heat uptake dynamics associated with phase changes of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A number of simulations are performed in an eddy-permitting global ocean model (MOM5) coupled to a sea ice model (SIS). To examine the recent period, the ocean model is forced with atmospheric CORE normal year forcing, with the observed Pacific wind trend from 1992-2013 superimposed linearly over the tropical Pacific region. The role of seasonally varying wind trends is further investigated by running a second experiment with seasonally varying wind anomalies added in the Pacific. To investigate how and when the subducted heat might re-surfaces from the ocean interior in the future, additional experiments are performed that include a ramp down of the trade winds under a variety of scenarios to mimic a future phase change in the IPO. This work has implications for decadal predictions of future global climate change.

  14. Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Kathrin M.; Joos, Fortunat; Raible, Christoph C.

    2015-04-01

    The detection of forced trends in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems is a challenge. A major issue is the presence of natural variability which has the potential to enhance or mask trends over decadal timescales. The successful detection of trend signals is thus a signal-to-noise (S/N) problem, i.e., the signal has to be of a magnitude that durably exceeds the envelope of background variability. One possible measure to estimate this is the time of emergence (ToE) of a signal, that is, the point in time at which the ratio S/N exceeds a certain threshold. We use historical simulations from 17 Earth System Models to investigate the ToE of trends in surface ocean biogeochemistry. For maximum comparability with the available observations, we focus on dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pCO2 and pH, and sea-surface temperature (SST). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable SST. The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC, yet the trends emerge much faster - after roughly 12 years for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10-30 years for DIC and 45-90 years for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly seasonal sampled measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

  15. Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

    2015-01-01

    Background Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. Objectives The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. Methods We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. Results The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. Conclusion We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities. PMID:26076447

  16. Linear scale ultrafiltration.

    PubMed

    van Reis, R; Goodrich, E M; Yson, C L; Frautschy, L N; Dzengeleski, S; Lutz, H

    1997-09-01

    Tangential flow filtration has traditionally been scaled up by maintaining constant the filtrate volume to membrane surface area ratio, membrane material and pore size, channel height, flow path geometry and retentate and filtrate pressures. Channel width and the number of channels have been increased to provide increased membrane area. Several other parameters, however, have not been maintained constant. A new comprehensive methodology for implementation of linear scale up and scale down of tangential flow filtration processes has been developed. Predictable scale up can only be achieved by maintaining fluid dynamic parameters which are independent of scale. Fluid dynamics are controlled by operating parameters (feed flow rate, retentate pressure, fed batch ratio and temperature), geometry (channel length, height, turbulence promoter and entrance/exit design), materials (membrane, turbulence promoter, and encapsulant compression), and system geometry (flow distribution). Cassette manufacturing procedures and tolerances also play a significant role in achieving scale independent performance. Extensive development work in the aforementioned areas has resulted in the successful implementation of linear scale up of ultrafiltration processes for recovery of human recombinant DNA derived pharmaceuticals. A 400-fold linear scale up has been achieved without intermediate pilot scale tests. Scale independent performance has a direct impact on process yield, protein quality and product economics and is therefore particularly important in the biotechnology industry. (c) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Biotechnol Bioeng 55: 737-746, 1997. PMID:18636584

  17. Corrosion of Candidate High Temperature Alloys in Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parks, Curtis J.

    The corrosion resistance of three candidate alloys is tested in supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) at different levels of temperature and pressure for up to 3000 hours. The purpose of the testing is to evaluate the compatibility of different engineering alloys in S-CO2 for use in a S-CO 2 Brayton cycle. The three alloys used are austenitic stainless steel 316, iron-nickel-base superalloy 718, and nickel-base superalloy 738. Each alloy is exposed to four combinations of temperature and pressure, consisting of either 550°C or 700°C at either 15 or 25 MPa for up to 1500 hours. At each temperature, an additional sample set is tested for 3000 hours and experienced an increase in pressure from 15 MPa to 25 MPa after 1500 hours of testing. All three alloys are successful in producing a protective oxide layer at the lower temperature of 550°C based on the logarithmic weight gain trends. At the higher temperature of 700°C, 316SS exhibits unfavourable linear weight gain trends at both pressures of 15 and 25 MPa. In comparison, IN-718 and IN-738 performs similarly in producing a protective oxide layer illustrated through a power weight gain relation. The effect of pressure is most pronounced at the operating temperature of 700°C, where the higher pressure of 25 MPa results in an increased rate of oxide formation. SEM analysis exposes a thin film oxide for both IN-718 and IN-738 but severe intergranular corrosion is exhibited by IN-738. Based on the testing conducted, both alloys show favourable characteristics for use in S-CO 2 conditions up to 700°C, but further testing is required to characterize the effect of the intergranular corrosion on the stability of oxide in IN-738. 316SS provided favourable results for use in temperatures of 550°C, but the protective oxide deteriorated at an operating temperature of 700°C.

  18. Global Surface Temperature Change

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Hansen; R. Ruedy; M. Sato

    We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed nightlights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and peri-urban stations for non-climatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change

  19. Aging trends -- the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Biddlecom, A E; Domingo, L J

    1996-03-01

    This report presents a description of the trends in growth of the elderly population in the Philippines and their health, disability, education, work status, income, and family support. The proportion of elderly in the Philippines is much smaller than in other Southeast Asian countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia. The elderly population aged over 65 years increased from 2.7% of total population in 1990 to 3.6% in 1990. The elderly are expected to comprise 7.7% of total population in 2025. The proportion of elderly is small due to the high fertility rate. Life expectancy averages 63.5 years. The aged dependency ratio will double from 5.5 elderly per 100 persons aged 15-64 years in 1990 to 10.5/100 in 2025. A 1984 ASEAN survey found that only 11% of elderly rated their health as bad. The 1990 Census reveals that 3.9% were disabled elderly. Most were deaf, blind, or orthopedically impaired. 16% of elderly in the ASEAN survey reported not seeing a doctor even when they needed to. 54% reported that a doctor was not visited due to the great expense. In 1980, 67% of men and 76% of women aged over 60 years had less than a primary education. The proportion with a secondary education in 2020 is expected to be about 33% for men and 33% for women. 66.5% of men and 28.5% of women aged over 60 years were in the formal labor force in 1990. Women were less likely to receive cash income from current jobs or pensions. 65% of earnings from older rural people was income from agricultural production. 60% of income among urban elderly was from children, and 23% was from pensions. Family support is provided to the elderly in the form of coresidence. In 1988, 68% of elderly aged over 60 years lived with at least one child. Retirement or nursing homes are uncommon. The Philippines Constitution states that families have a duty to care for elderly members. PMID:12292274

  20. Design of linear phase filters

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. G. Langelaan

    2000-01-01

    The use of delay lines in producing specific delays is quite common in the design of feed forward amplifiers. In the past transmission lines have been used to introduce these delays. Whilst the transmission lines do have some good characteristics such as being very linear and being very stable over temperature extremes, they do have some drawbacks. Typically delays of

  1. Energy Perspectives: Trends and Milestones

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    Energy Perspectives is a graphical overview of energy history in the United States. The 43 graphs shown here reveal sweeping trends related to the nation's production, consumption, and trade of energy from 1949 through 2011.

  2. Trends in Higher Education Computing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Charles R.

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the effects which changes in computer technology are having on the organization, staffing, and budgets at institutions of higher education. Trends in computer hardware, computer software, and in office automation are also discussed. (JN)

  3. Acknowledgements | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    Skip to main content at the National Institutes of Health | www.cancer.gov Cancer Trends Progress Report Search form Search Main Menu Prevention Early Detection Diagnosis Treatment Life After Cancer End of Life Summary Tables Main Menu Prevention Tobacco

  4. Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n?=?47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide. PMID:24205025

  5. CLIMATIC TRENDS OVER NORTH AMERICA: POTENTIAL ROLE OF AEROSOLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The spatial pattern and the trends (1948-1980) of several key climatic parameters show that there has been a reduction of the surface noon temperature, over the S.E. United States. During the same time, and over the same region, there has been an increase of dewpoint, relative hu...

  6. Evolutionary Trends in Body Size

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Andy Purvis; C. David L. Orme

    An organism’s body size tells us a lot about how it makes a living, suggesting that body size is a key parameter in evolution.\\u000a We outline three large-scale trends in body size evolution. Bergmann’s Rule is the tendency for warm-blooded species at high\\u000a latitudes to be larger than their close relatives nearer the equator. The Island Rule is the trend

  7. Median percent change: a robust alternative for assessing temporal trends.

    PubMed

    Geraci, Marco; Alston, Robert D; Birch, Jillian M

    2013-12-01

    A typical summary statistic for temporal trends is the average percent change (APC). The APC is estimated by using a generalized linear model, usually under the assumption of linearity on the logarithmic scale. A serious limitation of least-squares type estimators is their sensitivity to outliers. The goal of this study is twofold: firstly, we propose a robust and easy-to-compute measure of the temporal trend based on the median of the rates (median percent change - MPC), rather than their mean, under the hypothesis of constant relative change; secondly, we investigate the performance of several models for estimating the rate of change when some of the most common model assumptions are violated. We provide some guidance on the practices of the estimation of temporal trends when using different models under different circumstances. The robustness property of the median is assessed in a simulation study, which shows that the MPC provides strong reductions in estimation bias and variance in presence of outliers. We also demonstrate how a mathematical property of the median helps addressing the issue of zero counts when estimating trends on the log-scale. Finally, we analyzed an English cancer registration dataset to illustrate the proposed method. We believe that, as a good practice, both APC and MPC should be presented when sensitivity issues arise. PMID:24016682

  8. Ischemic Stroke Hospital Admission Associated with Ambient Temperature in Jinan, China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Qinzhou; Gao, Cuilian; Wang, Hongchun; Lang, Lingling; Yue, Tao; Lin, Hualiang

    2013-01-01

    Background This study estimated the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on hospital admissions for ischemic stroke during 1990–2009 in Jinan, China. Methods To account for possible delayed effects and harvesting effect, we examined the impact of meteorological factors up to 30 days before each admission using a distributed lag non-linear model; we controlled for season, long-term trend, day of week and public holidays in the analysis. Stratified analyses were also done for summer and winter. Results A total of 1,908 ischemic stroke hospital admissions were observed between 1990 and 2009. We found a strong non-linear acute effect of daily temperatures on ischemic stroke hospital admission. With the mean temperature 15°C as the reference, the relative risk (RR) was 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10–1.85) for 0°C daily temperature on the same day, and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.31–0.59) for 30°C daily temperature on the same day, respectively. The effect of ambient temperature was similar in summer and winter. No significant association was observed between relative humidity and ischemic stroke hospitalization. Conclusions Low temperature might be a risk factor for ischemic stroke, and high temperature might be protective factor of ischemic stroke occurrence in Jinan, China. PMID:24260379

  9. Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

  10. Trends in streamflow and rainfall in tropical South America: Amazonia, eastern Brazil, and northwestern Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, José A.; Tomasella, Javier; Uvo, Cintia R.

    1998-01-01

    Long hydrological records, from the Amazon Basin, northeastern Brazil, and northwestern Peru spanning most of this century, are examined for trends in rainfall (three wettest months) and runoff (three months of highest flow) or stage, where no rating curves exist. Trends are tested for significance using the Mann-Kendall statistic. In basins where large soil, aquifer, or man-made reservoirs give rise to appreciable over-year storage, flows and water levels may be serially correlated. Where serial correlation exists, the usual statistical tests (linear regression, t-test, and Mann-Kendall) will overestimate the significance of trends, showing significance where none exists. Analysis for trend therefore requires particular care when data are serially correlated, and to avoid misleading results, additional supportive evidence must be sought. For example, rainfall records within the same river basin can be checked for trends; serial correlation in rainfall records, in particular, is less likely to be present, so the validity of any trends in rainfall is less open to question. Strong negative trends were found in flow data from the coast of northern Peru and the São Francisco River, while positive significant trends were detected in the Parnaíba River basin. No significant trends were found in the discharge or stage records from Amazonia, while rainfall in northeastern Brazil shows a slow increase over long periods. In the Parnaíba and in some rivers of northern Peru unusually large discharges at the beginning or end of the records seem to account for the direction and significance of trends.

  11. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

    2014-05-01

    Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative and positive, are found in case 2 waters in correspondence of the river deltas. These trend signals are frequently linked to the implementation or non-implementation of the legislation introduced to control the nutrient discharge into the sea from European rivers.

  12. Recent Enrollment Trends in American Soil Science Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brevik, Eric C.; Abit, Sergio; Brown, David; Dolliver, Holly; Hopkins, David; Lindbo, David; Manu, Andrew; Mbila, Monday; Parikh, Sanjai J.; Schulze, Darrell; Shaw, Joey; Weil, Ray; Weindorf, David

    2015-04-01

    Soil science student enrollment was on the decline in the United States from the early 1990s through the early 2000s. Overall undergraduate student enrollment in American colleges and universities rose by about 11% over the same time period. This fact created considerable consternation among the American soil science community. As we head into the International Year of Soil, it seemed to be a good time to revisit this issue and examine current enrollment trends. Fourteen universities that offer undergraduate and/or graduate programs in soil science were surveyed for their enrollments over the time period 2007-2014 (the last seven academic years). The 14 schools represent about 20% of the institutions that offer soil science degrees/programs in the United States. Thirteen institutions submitted undergraduate data and 10 submitted graduate data, which was analyzed by individual institution and in aggregate. Simple linear regression was used to find the slope of best-fit trend lines. For individual institutions, a slope of ? 0.5 (on average, the school gained 0.5 students per year or more) was considered to be growing enrollment, ? -0.5 was considered shrinking enrollment, and between -0.5 and 0.5 was considered to be stable enrollment. For aggregated data, the 0.5 slope standard was multiplied by the number of schools in the aggregated survey to determine whether enrollment was growing, shrinking, or stable. Over the period of the study, six of the 13 schools reporting undergraduate data showed enrollment gains, five of the 13 showed stable enrollments, one of the 13 showed declining enrollments, and one of the 13 discontinued their undergraduate degree program. The linear regression trend line for the undergraduate schools' composite data had a slope of 55.0 students/year (R2 = 0.96), indicating a strong overall trend of undergraduate enrollment growth at these schools. However, the largest school had also seen large growth in enrollment. To ensure that this one institution was not masking an overall declining enrollment trend, the regression was also run with that institution removed. This gave a linear trend line with a slope of 6.6 students/year (R2 = 0.90), indicating more moderate growth but still a trend towards growth in undergraduate enrollment. Four of the 10 graduate programs showed enrollment gains, five of the 10 showed stable enrollments, and one of the 10 showed declining enrollments. The linear regression trend line for the composite graduate school data had a slope of 12.0 students/year (R2 = 0.97), indicating an overall trend of enrollment growth at these schools. As a whole, both the undergraduate and graduate programs investigated showed moderate growth trends, which represent a reversal of enrollment trends reported at the beginning of the 21st Century. Challenges in obtaining the data used for this study included 1) differences in data collection and archiving by institutions and 2) only some schools still offer a soil science degree; many schools offer another degree (e.g., agricultural studies, agronomy, environmental resource science, environmental science, plant and soil science, etc.) with a soils option or emphasis. In the second case it was necessary to identify which students in these other degree programs pursued the soil science option or emphasis.

  13. Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

  14. Evaluation of Temperature-Dependent Effective Material Properties and Performance of a Thermoelectric Module

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chien, Heng-Chieh; Chu, En-Ting; Hsieh, Huey-Lin; Huang, Jing-Yi; Wu, Sheng-Tsai; Dai, Ming-Ji; Liu, Chun-Kai; Yao, Da-Jeng

    2013-07-01

    We devised a novel method to evaluate the temperature-dependent effective properties of a thermoelectric module (TEM): Seebeck coefficient ( S m), internal electrical resistance ( R m), and thermal conductance ( K m). After calculation, the effective properties of the module are converted to the average material properties of a p- n thermoelectric pillar pair inside the module: Seebeck coefficient ( S TE), electrical resistivity ( ? TE), and thermal conductivity ( k TE). For a commercial thermoelectric module (Altec 1091) chosen to verify the novel method, the measured S TE has a maximum value at bath temperature of 110°C; ? TE shows a positive linear trend dependent on the bath temperature, and k TE increases slightly with increasing bath temperature. The results show the method to have satisfactory measurement performance in terms of practicability and reliability; the data for tests near 23°C agree with published values.

  15. Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matt J.; Paterson, Adrian W.

    2014-07-01

    Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.

  16. Long term ozone trends in the Lake Michigan airshed

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, B.E.; Adamski, W.J. [Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources, Madison, WI (United States). Bureau of Air Management

    1997-12-31

    Emissions-related improvements in ambient ozone are difficult to detect, because ozone changes are dominated by short-term variations due to meteorological fluctuations. Rao and Zurbenko (RZ) have developed a statistical filtering method to separate a time-series of ozone air quality data into its short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. The resulting long-term ozone trend has most meteorological influences removed and thus can reasonably be attributed to emissions changes. In this paper, the authors use the RZ method to derive long-term, emissions-related ozone trends from data collected at five ozone monitoring sites near Lake Michigan. They compare trends in peak daily 8-hour averages of ozone to trends in peak daily 1-hour averages, for the period 1980--95. Temperature is employed as a surrogate for all meteorological influences on ozone. Ozone data for these sites are available only for the monitoring period April 15 to October 15 each year. The results indicate that three sites have statistically significant trends, averaging an annual reduction of 1.12% for 8-hour ozone averages. The 1-hour trends for these sites averaged an annual reduction of 1.07%. The two remaining sites indicated a trend in both 1- and 8-hour ozone averages that was either marginal or not statistically significant. These results are comparable with RZ-derived ozone trends for Lake Michigan shoreline sites as calculated by others. However, the available 6-month data sets used here did not allow a complete verification of the RZ method for these sites because plots and correlations could not be compared with its theoretical assumptions which are based on year-round data sets.

  17. LINEAR DIFFUSION Erkut Erdem

    E-print Network

    Erdem, Erkut

    LINEAR DIFFUSION Erkut Erdem Hacettepe University February 24th, 2012 CONTENTS 1 Linear Diffusion 1 2 Appendix - The Calculus of Variations 5 References 6 1 LINEAR DIFFUSION The linear diffusion (heat (noisy) input image and u(x, t) be initialized with u(x, 0) = u0(x) = f (x). Then, the linear diffusion

  18. Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate

    E-print Network

    Bhatt, Uma

    - son length and photosynthetic intensity, mostly in tundra. In contrast, forest areas unaffected and boreal biomes. climate change environmental change remote sensing trend analysis There has been including agriculture, forest, and tundra categories; (iii) gridded temperature fields interpolated from

  19. Linkages between precipitation and discharge trends in Central Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souvignet, Maxime; Freer, Jim; Cloke, Hannah; Laux, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Trend detection in precipitation and river discharge datasets can provide important insights into the impacts of climatic variability and change. Regions with poor observed hydrometeorological data coverage, often coincident with developing countries, are particularly prone to affects of changes in rainfall and temperature. In such regions, e.g. Central Vietnam, which are frequently affected by floods and droughts, knowledge about climate trends and their evolution over time is essential to project potential impacts on local water availability, agricultural productivity and risk analysis. Consequently, the quantification of the impact of global climate change in poorly gauged regions is of crucial importance for stakeholders and policy makers. In this study, we analyse change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. To overcome the limited data availability, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges network. Finally, linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31% to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region.

  20. Trends in the global tropopause thickness revealed by radiosondes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Sha; Fu, Yunfei; Xiao, Qingnong

    2012-10-01

    The first global trends in the thickness of the tropopause layer (TL) are analyzed based on radiosonde data in the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for the period of 1965-2004. It reveals that TL has been thickening for the entire globe with positive trends of 0.16 ± 0.12 km/decade during this period. Statistically significant thickening is observed in the tropics, North Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and NH poles. Accompanied by overall cooling of -0.58 ± 0.40 K/decade in TL's top, remarkable rising trends of 0.35 ± 0.29 km/decade are observed in the correspoding height. However, the anti-correlation of the trends in the tropopause temperature and the corresponding height is not observed in its lower boundary, namely the first lapse rate tropopause (LRT), for all the latitude bands as suggested by the previous studies. The results imply that the temperature of the TL is primarily couple with the height of its upper boundary as the thickness of the TL is more correlated with the temperature of the lower stratosphere than with the tempeature of the upper troposphere. Long-term changes in TL may in turn carry more information how tropopause change in response to climate change than in the sharp “tropopause surface” only.

  1. Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

    2013-01-01

    Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

  2. New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, J. A.; Carneiro, M. F.; Correia, A.; Alcoforado, M. J.; Zorita, E.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.

    2015-01-01

    The reliability of an existing reconstructed annual (December-November) temperature series for the Lisbon region (Portugal) from 1600 onwards is assessed in the present study. The consistency of this series with: (1) five local borehole temperature-depth profiles; (2) synthetic temperature-depth profiles generated from both reconstructed temperatures and paleoclimate simulations in Portugal; (3) instrumental data sources over the twentieth century; and (4) temperature indices from documentary sources during the late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) is assessed. It is found that reconstructed annual mean temperature series in Portugal, after European-wide reconstructions, is not consistent with both borehole profiles and paleoclimate simulations in their long-term variability and trends. Hence, the non-linear trend in the paleoclimate simulations is estimated and added to the reconstructed series (first-stage calibration). The annual reconstructed series is then calibrated in its location and scale parameters, using the instrumental series and a linear regression between them (second-stage calibration). The resulting calibrated series is then in clear accordance with the low-frequency variability of both borehole temperature-depth profiles and paleoclimate simulations. This calibrated series shows clear footprints of the Maunder and Dalton minima, mainly attributed to changes in solar activity and explosive volcanic eruptions, and a strong recent-past warming, attributed to human-driven forcing. Lastly, it is also in overall agreement with independently-derived annual temperature indices for the late Maunder Minimum. Thus, the series resulting of this re-calibration process for Lisbon can be of foremost relevance to improve the current understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate variability in Portugal.

  3. Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servain, Jacques; Caniaux, Guy; Kouadio, Yves K.; McPhaden, Michael J.; Araujo, Moacyr

    2014-12-01

    A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964-2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964-1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964-2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970's, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.

  4. Evaluating 20th century warming trends with modern Porites corals from the western Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeiffer, M.; Zinke, J.; Dullo, W.-C.; Cahyarini, S. Y.

    2009-04-01

    Recent studies suggest that instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) are unreliable prior to 1965 due to changes in the measurement procedures. Thompson et al. (2008) identified an artificial cool bias of up to 0.3Ë? C in global mean SSTs between 1945 and the mid-1960s. Geochemical parameters in skeletons of massive corals can be used to infer past changes in climate on seasonal to centennial time scales. The Sr/Ca ratio of coral aragonite is a widely used tool for deriving high-resolution proxy records of past sea surface temperatures. Application of the Sr/Ca paleothermometer relies on the assumption that coral Sr/Ca varies predictably with temperature and that seawater Sr/Ca is invariant on millennial timescales due to the long residence time of Sr and Ca in the ocean. In contrast, the oxygen isotope ratios (^18O) of coral aragonite vary in response to temperature and changes in the ^18O of seawater, the latter depending on the freshwater balance. Thus, coral ^18O may be used as a record of past sea surface temperatures only at sites were ^18O seawater variations are negligible. SST in the western tropical Indian Ocean closely follows global mean temperature trends (Funk et al., 2008). Here we present a set of Porites coral Sr/Ca and/or oxygen isotope records from the tropical Indian Ocean covering the past 120-336 years (Seychelles, Chagos Archipelago). We computed a composite sea surface temperature record for the Western Indian Ocean using ^18O (Seychelles) and Sr/Ca (Chagos). This record clearly follows instrumental SST trends in the Western tropical Indian Ocean, except in the 1945-1965 interval, were instrumental SST data show a pronounced cooling not evident in the coral proxy index (the linear correlation coefficient between the coral index and instrumental SST is r=0.86 if we omit the most problematic time period from 1945 to 1960). However, the coral index follows the global land surface air temperature trend, which is free of systematic biases due to changes in the measurement technique. We therefore conclude that the cooling of the tropical Indian Ocean indicated by instrumental SST is an artifact that may result from changes in the SST measurement techniques, as suggested by Thompson et al., 2008). Our results will have important implications for the investigation of large-scale teleconnections in the oceans (for example, the apparent shift in the Indian Ocean SSTs around 1945 has been related to a regime change in the North Pacific Ocean). Thompson et al. (2008): A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature, Nature, 453: 646-649, DOI:10.1038/nature06982. Funk, C. et al. (2008): Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development, PNAS, 105: 11081-11086, DOI: 10.1073_pnas.0708196105.

  5. DCCPS: TCRB: TReND: About TReND

    Cancer.gov

    Tauras J (September 2007). The impact of smoke-free air laws and cigarette process on smoking among different racial and Ethnic Groups in the United States. Tobacco Research Network on Disparities (TReND) Meeting, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD.

  6. DCCPS: TCRB: TReND: About TReND

    Cancer.gov

    The National Cancer Institute (NCI) and American Legacy Foundation are proud to fund the Tobacco Research Network on Disparities (TReND). Previous support has also been provided by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office on Women’s Health, NCI Office of Women’s Health, and the NCI Center to Reduce Cancer Health Disparities.

  7. Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

  8. Analysis of Minor Products in Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonation. Comparison Between the Traditional Gravimetric Method and High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) Procedures Versus High Temperature Gas Chromatography (HT-GC)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. Bengoechea; A. Fernández

    2008-01-01

    During the sulfonation process of the linear alkylbenzene (LAB) other products like sulfones and anhydrides are also formed\\u000a in addition to the linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acid (HLAS). Most of them are transformed in different degrees during the\\u000a aging and hydrolysis steps of the overall sulfonation process [Moreno et al. (2003) J Surfactant Deterg 6(2):137–142]. The\\u000a use of HPLC technique since

  9. Uranium-trend dating of quaternary deposits in the Nevada Test Site area, Nevada and California

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. N. Rosholt; C. A. Bush; W. J. Carr; D. L. Hoover; W. C. Swadley; J. R. Jr. Dooley

    1985-01-01

    The uranium-trend dating method has been used to estimate the ages of alluvium, colluvium, altered volcanic ash, and eolian deposits in the Nevada Test Site area. For dating of deposits of 5000 to 800,000 years age, the open-system technique consists of determining a linear trend from analyses of four to ten channel samples collected at different depths in a depositional

  10. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sheng Yue; Paul Pilon; Bob Phinney; George Cavadias

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated using Monte Carlo simulation the interaction between a linear trend and a lag-one autoregressive (AR(1)) process when both exist in a time series. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the existence of serial correlation alters the variance of the estimate of the Mann-Kendall (MK) statistic; and the presence of a trend alters the estimate of the magnitude of serial

  11. Source gases: Concentrations, emissions, and trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fraser, Paul J.; Harriss, Robert; Penkett, Stuart A.; Makide, Yoshihiro; Sanhueza, Eugenio; Alyea, Fred N.; Rowland, F. Sherwood; Blake, Don; Sasaki, Toru; Cunnold, Derek M.

    1991-01-01

    Source gases are defined as those gases that influence levels of stratospheric ozone (O3) by transporting species containing halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen to the stratosphere. Examples are the CFC's, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Other source gases that also come under consideration in an atmospheric O3 context are those that are involved in the O3 or hydroxyl (OH) radical chemistry of the troposphere. Examples are CH4, carbon monoxide (CO), and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC's). Most of the source gases, along with carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O), are climatically significant and thus affect stratospheric O3 levels by their influence on stratospheric temperatures. Carbonyl sulphide (COS) could affect stratospheric O3 through maintenance of the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer, which may be involved in heterogeneous chlorine-catalyzed O3 destruction. The previous reviews of trends and emissions of source gases, either from the context of their influence on atmospheric O3 or global climate change, are updated. The current global abundances and concentration trends of the trace gases are given in tabular format.

  12. Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

  13. Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Sharmin, Sifat; Glass, Kathryn; Viennet, Elvina; Harley, David

    2015-01-01

    Local weather influences the transmission of the dengue virus. Most studies analyzing the relationship between dengue and climate are based on relatively coarse aggregate measures such as mean temperature. Here, we include both mean temperature and daily fluctuations in temperature in modelling dengue transmission in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model, adjusted for rainfall, anomalies in sea surface temperature (an index for El Niño-Southern Oscillation), population density, the number of dengue cases in the previous month, and the long term temporal trend in dengue incidence. In addition to the significant associations of mean temperature and temperature fluctuation with dengue incidence, we found interaction of mean and temperature fluctuation significantly influences disease transmission at a lag of one month. High mean temperature with low fluctuation increases dengue incidence one month later. Besides temperature, dengue incidence was also influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies in the current and previous month, presumably as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the annual rainfall cycle. Population density exerted a significant positive influence on dengue incidence indicating increasing risk of dengue in over-populated Dhaka. Understanding these complex relationships between climate, population, and dengue incidence will help inform outbreak prediction and control. PMID:26161895

  14. A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. F. Singer

    2006-01-01

    How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov\\/Library\\/sap\\/sap1-1\\/finalreport\\/default.htm),

  15. Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

  16. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  17. Recruiting Trends, 2008-2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collegiate Employment Research Institute (NJ3), 2009

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the recruiting trends for 2008-2009. This year's report is based on 945 respondents, including 57 K-12 schools. The researchers continued their focus on fast-growth small companies and expended most of their energy in retaining their sample distribution, knowing that the prevailing economic situation would reduce responses.…

  18. Global Trends in Workplace Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Lung-Sheng; Lai, Chun-Chin

    2012-01-01

    The paradigm of human resource development has shifted to workplace learning and performance. Workplace can be an organization, an office, a kitchen, a shop, a farm, a website, even a home. Workplace learning is a dynamic process to solve workplace problems through learning. An identification of global trends of workplace learning can help us to…

  19. Teacher Retirement Trends in California

    E-print Network

    Su, Xiao

    Teacher Retirement Trends in California: 2006/07­2011/12 The Center for the Future of Teaching teacher-development policy and practice. For nearly two decades, the Center has been steadfast a well-prepared, effective, and caring teacher. WestEd, a research, development, and service agency

  20. TRENDS IN RURAL SULFUR CONCENTRATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As the focus of environmental management has shifted toward regional- scale strategies, there is a growing need to develop statistical methodology for the estimation of regional trends in air pollution. This information is critical to assessing the effects of legislated emission ...