Science.gov

Sample records for long-term stochastic population

  1. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression.

    PubMed

    Antunes, G; Roque, A C; Simoes-de-Souza, F M

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca(2+)]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca(2+) induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca(2+) signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca(2+) thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  2. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression

    PubMed Central

    Antunes, G.; Roque, A. C.; Simoes-de-Souza, F. M.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca2+ induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca2+ signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca2+ thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Ankit; Briat, Corentin; Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-06-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  5. A Scalable Computational Framework for Establishing Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Reaction Networks

    PubMed Central

    Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  6. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  7. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response.

    PubMed

    Maiti, A; Small, W; Lewicki, J P; Weisgraber, T H; Duoss, E B; Chinn, S C; Pearson, M A; Spadaccini, C M; Maxwell, R S; Wilson, T S

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter's improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  8. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

  9. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  10. Sensitivity of train stochastic dynamics to long-term evolution of track irregularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestoille, N.; Soize, C.; Funfschilling, C.

    2016-05-01

    The influence of the track geometry on the dynamic response of the train is of great concern for the railway companies, because they have to guarantee the safety of the train passengers in ensuring the stability of the train. In this paper, the long-term evolution of the dynamic response of the train on a stretch of the railway track is studied with respect to the long-term evolution of the track geometry. The characterisation of the long-term evolution of the train response allows the railway companies to start off maintenance operations of the track at the best moment. The study is performed using measurements of the track geometry, which are carried out very regularly by a measuring train. A stochastic model of the studied stretch of track is created in order to take into account the measurement uncertainties in the track geometry. The dynamic response of the train is simulated with a multibody software. A noise is added in output of the simulation to consider the uncertainties in the computational model of the train dynamics. Indicators on the dynamic response of the train are defined, allowing to visualize the long-term evolution of the stability and the comfort of the train, when the track geometry deteriorates.

  11. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Thorndahl, S

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of both maximum water levels as well as CSO volumes based on operations of the urban drainage model MOUSE in a single catchment case study. Results show quite a wide confidence interval of the model predictions especially on the large return periods. Traditionally, return periods of drainage system predictions are based on ranking, but this paper proposes a new methodology for the assessment of return periods. Based on statistics of characteristic rainfall parameters and correlation with drainage system predictions, it is possible to predict return periods more reliably, and with smaller confidence bands compared to the traditional methodology. PMID:19542638

  12. The importance of stochastic signaling processes in the induction of long-term synaptic plasticity.

    PubMed

    De Schutter, Erik

    2013-11-01

    A stochastic model of the signaling network responsible for the induction of long-term depression (LTD) at the parallel fiber to Purkinje cell synapse is described. The model includes a PKC-ERK-cPLA2 positive feedback loop and mechanisms of AMPA receptor trafficking. It was tuned to replicate calcium uncaging experiments that cause LTD. The ultrasensitive activation of ERK makes the signaling network activity bistable, causing either LTD or not. Therefore, in single synapses only two discrete stable states (LTD and non-LTD) can be expressed. The stochastic properties of the signaling network causes threshold dithering and probabilistic expression of LTD, which allows at the macroscopic level for many different and stable mean magnitudes of depression. When the volume of a single spine is simulated no thresholds for the calcium input signal are present. Such thresholds appear only when the volume of simulation is increased by a factor 100 or more and the model output is then bistable. Similarly, deterministic solutions of the same model show only bistable behavior. LTD induction requires activation of the PKC-ERK-cPLA2 positive feedback loop but this activity is not constant: the activities of ERK and of cPLA2 fluctuate strongly. This is much less the case for PKC which is more constantly activated and thereby promotes a stable output of the pathway. PMID:23267752

  13. Long-term projections of national, regional, and state population

    SciTech Connect

    McDonald, J.F.; South, D.W.

    1986-07-01

    The projections prepared by the US Bureau of the Census are the best available projections of total US population. The DRI projections of population at the regional and state level to the year 2008 are the best available and are consistent with the US Bureau of the Census projections of total US population. The DRI regional and state projections can be extended from 2008 to 2030 with a simple model based on economic opportunity, although an even simpler model - constant shares - is used for the 1985 test runs. The US Bureau of the Census prepares the best available projections of the US age-sex distribution.

  14. Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.

    1985-01-01

    The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

  15. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

    PubMed Central

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-01-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  16. Long-term growth of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, Philip A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1--4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23--25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39--47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  17. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of quantitative traits in two long-term randomly mated soybean populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility (gms) were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations designated: RSII and RSIII. These populations were evaluated in the field at three locations each with two replications. Genot...

  18. Analysis of Quantitative Traits in Two Long-Term Randomly Mated Soybean Populations I. Genetic Variances

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations: RSII and RSIII. Population means, variances, and heritabilities were estimated to determine the effects of 26 generations of random...

  19. Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Simon Robin

    2016-01-01

    It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated. PMID:27058254

  20. Long-term prescribing of antidepressants in the older population: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Dickinson, Rebecca; Knapp, Peter; House, Allan O; Dimri, Vandana; Zermansky, Arnold; Petty, Duncan; Holmes, John; Raynor, David K

    2010-01-01

    Background High rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing have been identified in the older population. Aims To explore the attitudes of older patients and their GPs to taking long-term antidepressant therapy, and their accounts of the influences on long-term antidepressant use. Design of study Qualitative study using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Setting One primary care trust in North Bradford. Method Thirty-six patients aged ≥75 years and 10 GPs were interviewed. Patients were sampled to ensure diversity in age, sex, antidepressant type, and home circumstances. Results Participants perceived significant benefits and expressed little apprehension about taking long-term antidepressants, despite being aware of the psychological and social factors involved in onset and persistence of depression. Barriers to discontinuation were identified following four themes: pessimism about the course and curability of depression; negative expectations and experiences of ageing; medicine discontinuation perceived by patients as a threat to stability; and passive (therapeutic momentum) and active (therapeutic maintenance) decisions to accept the continuing need for medication. Conclusion There is concern at a public health level about high rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing, but no evidence was found of a drive for change either from the patients or the doctors interviewed. Any apprehension was more than balanced by attitudes and behaviours supporting continuation. These findings will need to be incorporated into the planning of interventions aimed at reducing long-term antidepressant prescribing in older people. PMID:20353660

  1. Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

    PubMed Central

    Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

  2. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  3. Long-term benefits of full-day kindergarten: a longitudinal population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Brownell, M.D.; Nickel, N.C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P.J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C.Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were compared between FDK and half-day kindergarten (HDK) students in both targeted and universal FDK programmes. Propensity score matched cohort and stepped-wedge designs allowed for stronger causal inferences than previous research on FDK. We found limited long-term benefits of FDK, specific to the type of programme, outcomes examined, and subpopulations. FDK programmes targeted at low-income areas showed long-term improvements in numeracy for lower income girls. Our results suggest that expectations for wide-ranging long-term academic benefits of FDK are unwarranted. PMID:25632172

  4. Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Student Field Research Experiences in Special Populations.

    PubMed

    Soliman, Amr S; Chamberlain, Robert M

    2016-06-01

    Global health education and training of biomedical students in international and minority health research is expending through U.S. academic institutions. This study addresses the short- and long-term outcomes of an NCI-funded R25 short-term summer field research training program. This program is designed for MPH and Ph.D. students in cancer epidemiology and related disciplines, in international and minority settings (special populations) in a recent 7-year period. Positive short-term outcome of 73 students was measured as publishing a manuscript from the field research data and having a job in special populations. Positive long-term outcome was measured as having a post-doc position, being in a doctoral program, and/or employment in special populations at least 3 years from finishing the program. Significant factors associated with both short- and long-term success included resourcefulness of the student and compatibility of personalities and interests between the student and the on-campus and off-campus mentors. Short-term-success of students who conducted international filed research was associated with visits of the on-campus mentor to the field site. Short-term success was also associated with extent of mentorship in the field site and with long-term success. Future studies should investigate how field research sites could enhance careers of students, appropriateness of the sites for specific training competencies, and how to maximize the learning experience of students in international and minority research sites. PMID:25773133

  5. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George

    2015-04-01

    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  6. [Impact of long-term continuous cropping on the Fusarium population in soybean rhizosphere].

    PubMed

    Wei, Wei; Xu, Yan-Li; Zhu, Lin; Zhang, Si-Jia; Li, S

    2014-02-01

    The impact of long-term continuous cropping on the Fusarium population abundance and diversity, pathogenicity and phylogeny in soybean field were analyzed by using isolation, morphological identification, pathogenicity test, sequencing analysis and molecular marker with restricted fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP). The soybean field was located at the Hailun Experimental Station of Agricultural Ecology of Chinese Academy of Sciences in Northeast China and had been under a long-term rotation experiment designed to two treatments, i. e., long-term continuous cropping (LCC) of soybean for 20 years and short-term continuous cropping (SCC) for 3 years. In SCC field, the population density of Fusarium spp. was 6.0 x 10(4) CFU x g(-1), in which F. oxysporum, F. graminearum and F. verticillioides possessing high pathogenicity and F. solani possessing moderate pathogenicity were the dominant species. In LCC field, the population density of Fusarium population and the dominance index of dominant species were significantly lower than that in SCC. The population density of F. oxysporum, F. graminearum and F. solani were only 36% , 32% and 22% of that in SCC, and F. verticillioide with highest pathogenicity was absent. The diversity and evenness index of Fusarium population were significantly higher than that in SCC. F. tricinctum, F. lateritium and F. avenaceum, just isolated from LCC, possessing a distant genetic relationship with Fusarium isolates possessing high pathogenicity based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and translation elongation factor 1-alpha (EF-1alpha) gene, were non-pathogenicity for soybean. Thus, it seemed that LCC of soybean could cause the inhibition of soil Fusarium population size, alteration of Fusarium community composition and genetic diversity, and even the decline of pathogenicity for soybean root rot disease of Fusarium population. PMID:24830251

  7. APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR LONG-TERM DISASTER PREVENTION PLANNING

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segi, Shunsuke; Ishikura, Tomoki; Yokomatsu, Muneta

    This paper builds a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model which deals with investment to disaster prevention infrastructure stock. The nature of disaster such as uncertainty, magnitude of damage and long run effects of damage are explicitly modeled. The model can derive optimal policy with regard to investment to productive capital stock and disaster prevention infrastructure stock. Furthermore, the numerical simulations give some interesting implications about the relationship between optimal investment policy, magnitude of disaster, level of economic development and disaster prevention technology.

  8. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  9. Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2006-12-01

    Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models

  10. An optical model for implementing Parrondo's game and designing stochastic game with long-term memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Si, Tieyan

    2012-11-01

    An optical model of classical photons propagating through array of many beam splitters is developed to give a physical analogy of Parrondo's game and Parrondo-Harmer-Abbott game. We showed both the two games are reasonable game without so-called game paradox and they are essentially the same. We designed the games with long-term memory on loop lattice and history-entangled game. The strong correlation between nearest two rounds of game can make the combination of two losing game win, lose or oscillate between win and loss. The periodic potential in Brownian ratchet is analogous to a long chain of beam splitters. The coupling between two neighboring potential wells is equivalent to two coupled beam splitters. This correspondence may help us to understand the anomalous motion of exceptional Brownian particles moving in the opposite direction to the majority. We designed the capital wave for a game by introducing correlations into independent capitals instead of sub-games. Playing entangled quantum states in many coupled classical games obey the same rules for manipulating quantum states in many body physics.

  11. Long-Term Changes in Landscape Structure Within and Across China's Densely Populated Rural Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E.

    2006-05-01

    China's densely populated agricultural village landscapes cover nearly 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia. Driven by industrialization, population growth and economic reform, this vast extent of intensively- managed anthropogenic landscapes has undergone unprecedented ecological changes over the past fifty years. Despite their potential global impacts, long-term changes in China's village landscapes are the cumulative result of multitudinous fine-scale changes in landscape structure and resource management by hundreds of millions of agricultural households acting locally. Here we present results from a five-year field study of long-term ecological changes, circa 1945 to 2002, across China's densely populated agricultural regions based on high-resolution landscape change measurements, land manager interviews, and soil and vegetation sampling at five field sites in environmentally distinct regions across China. Human population density nearly doubled across sites, driving increases in anthropogenic impervious surface area and landscape fragmentation, yielding a 5% net increase in impervious surfaces across China's village landscapes over the past fifty years, a change similar in magnitude to the total current area of China's cities (~0.1 × 106 km2). Surprisingly, woody vegetation and tree cover also increased substantially over time, by approximately 10% (~0.2 × 106 km2), driven by tree planting and regrowth around newly constructed buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture and improved forestry, and the abandonment of annual crop cultivation. These and other long-term changes in landscape structure have the potential to contribute substantially and in unforeseen ways to global and regional changes in biogeochemical and hydrological processes, surface albedo and heat balance.

  12. Long-term disease dynamics in lakes: causes and consequences of chytrid infections in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Ives, Anthony R; Lathrop, Richard C; Carpenter, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the drivers and consequences of disease epidemics is an important frontier in ecology. However, long-term data on hosts, their parasites, and the corresponding environmental conditions necessary to explore these interactions are often unavailable. We examined the dynamics of Daphnia pulicaria, a keystone zooplankter in lake ecosystems, to explore the long-term causes and consequences of infection by a chytridiomycete parasitoid (Polycaryum laeve). After quantifying host-pathogen dynamics from vouchered samples collected over 15 years, we used autoregressive models to evaluate (1) hypothesized drivers of infection, including host density, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, host-food availability, and lake mixing; and (2) the effects of epidemics on host populations. Infection was present in most years but varied widely in prevalence, from < 1% to 34%, with seasonal peaks in early spring and late fall. Within years, lake stratification strongly inhibited P. laeve transmission, such that epidemics occurred primarily during periods of water mixing. Development of the thermocline likely reduced transmission by spatially separating susceptible hosts from infectious zoospores. Among years, ice duration and cumulative snowfall correlated negatively with infection prevalence, likely because of reductions in spring phytoplankton and D. pulicaria density in years with extended winters. Epidemics also influenced dynamics of the host population. Infected D. pulicaria rarely (< 1%) contained eggs, and P. laeve prevalence was positively correlated with sexual reproduction in D. pulicaria. Analyses of D. pulicaria density-dependent population dynamics predicted that, in the absence of P. laeve infection, host abundance would be 11-50% higher than what was observed. By underscoring the importance of complex physical processes in controlling host-parasite interactions and of epidemic disease in influencing host populations, our results highlight the value of long-term

  13. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable. PMID:22812118

  14. Long-term star formation at the Galactic center and its effect on the stellar population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serabyn, E.

    Although the central kpc-scale bulge of our Galaxy consists predominantly of old stars, the central parsec, in contrast, is host to a sizable number of very young stars. At intermediate scales, the nature of the stellar population remains very uncertain because high extinction has thus far limited observations. This talk will attempt to bridge these two regimes. As several other young stellar clusters are present in the central few hundred parsecs, star-formation is in fact quite widespread in our Galaxy's nucleus. Based on the current distribution of dense nuclear interstellar gas, and the current rate of star-formation, the hypothesis of our Galactic nucleus as a site of sustained, low-level star formation then emerges. The result of a long-term star formation rate of a few tenths of a solar mass per year would be a flattened central cluster of intermediate-age stars, amounting to about a billion solar masses. A stellar cluster of the requisite mass and linear scale is indeed present in our Galactic nucleus, and arguments will be presented that our Galaxy's central ``1 over r-squared' ' cluster is in fact an intermediate age population resulting from long-term star formation, and not simply the innermost part of the more elderly bulge.

  15. Long-term survival following intensive care: subgroup analysis and comparison with the general population.

    PubMed

    Wright, J C; Plenderleith, L; Ridley, S A

    2003-07-01

    This study aimed to compare the very long-term survival of critically ill patients with that of the general population, and examine the association among age, sex, admission diagnosis, APACHE II score and mortality. In a retrospective observational cohort study of prospectively gathered data, 2104 adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a teaching hospital in Glasgow from 1985 to 1992, were followed until 1997. Vital status at five years was compared with that of an age- and sex-matched Scottish population. Five-year mortality for the ICU patients was 47.1%, 3.4 times higher than that of the general population. For those surviving intensive care the five-year mortality was 33.4%. Mortality was greater than that of the general population for four years following intensive care unit admission (95% confidence interval included 1.0 at four years). Multivariate analysis showed that risk factors for mortality in those admitted to ICU were age, APACHE II score on admission and diagnostic category. Mortality was higher for those admitted with haematological (87.5%) and neurological diseases (61.7%) and septic shock (62.9%). A risk score was produced: Risk Score = 10 (age hazard ratio + APACHE II hazard ratio + diagnosis hazard ratio). None of the patients with a risk score > 100 survived more than five years and for those who survived to five years the mean risk score was 57. Long-term survival following intensive care is not only related to age and severity of illness but also diagnostic category. The risk of mortality in survivors of critical illness matches that of the normal population after four years. Age, severity of illness and diagnosis can be combined to provide an estimate of five-year survival. PMID:12790812

  16. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  17. Population ageing and wellbeing: lessons from Japan's long-term care insurance policy.

    PubMed

    Tamiya, Nanako; Noguchi, Haruko; Nishi, Akihiro; Reich, Michael R; Ikegami, Naoki; Hashimoto, Hideki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kawachi, Ichiro; Campbell, John Creighton

    2011-09-24

    Japan's population is ageing rapidly because of long life expectancy and a low birth rate, while traditional supports for elderly people are eroding. In response, the Japanese Government initiated mandatory public long-term care insurance (LTCI) in 2000, to help older people to lead more independent lives and to relieve the burdens of family carers. LTCI operates on social insurance principles, with benefits provided irrespective of income or family situation; it is unusually generous in terms of both coverage and benefits. Only services are provided, not cash allowances, and recipients can choose their services and providers. Analysis of national survey data before and after the programme started shows increased use of formal care at lower cost to households, with mixed results for the wellbeing of carers. Challenges to the success of the system include dissatisfaction with home-based care, provision of necessary support for family carers, and fiscal sustainability. Japan's strategy for long-term care could offer lessons for other nations. PMID:21885099

  18. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  19. Retinal Microvasculature Is Associated With Long-Term Survival in the General Adult Dutch Population.

    PubMed

    Mutlu, Unal; Ikram, M Kamran; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-02-01

    Retinal vascular diameters are associated with (sub)clinical cardiovascular disease and short-term cardiovascular mortality, but their association with long-term mortality is uncertain. We studied the association of retinal vascular diameters with cause-specific mortality in the general adult Dutch population during 25 years of follow-up. From 1990 to 1993, arteriolar and venular diameters were measured semiautomatically on digitized images in 5674 persons (mean age 68.0 years, 59% women) from the population-based Rotterdam study. Follow-up for mortality was complete till March 2015. Associations between vascular diameters and mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and the fellow vessel diameter. During 85 770 person-years (mean±SD: 15.1±6.67), 3794 (66.8%) persons died, of whom 1034 due to cardiovascular causes. We found that narrower arterioles and wider venules were associated with higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD decrease 1.04 [1.00-1.08] and increase 1.07 [1.03-1.12], respectively). For arterioles, these associations were strongest for cardiovascular mortality, whereas venules showed consistent associations for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Importantly, these associations remained unchanged after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up as immortal person-time. We found evidence for effect modification with stronger associations in persons <70 years (venules only) and smokers (P value for interaction<0.01). We replicated our findings in another independent cohort from the Rotterdam Study of 3106 persons with 19 880 person-years of follow-up and 144 deaths (hazard ratio for venules 1.22 [1.00-1.49]). Markers of retinal microvasculature are associated with long-term mortality in the general adult Dutch population. PMID:26628677

  20. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  1. Influence of melanin on mutation load in Drosophila populations after long-term irradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Mosse, I.B.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1994-09-01

    The effect of melanin on the level of mutation load has been studied in experimental Drosophila populations exposed to radiation for 115 generations. Four types of populations have been analyzed: (1) control; (2) treated with melanin; (3) irradiated; (4) irradiated and treated with melanin. Melanin was produced by auto-oxidation of 1-dioxyphenylallanine and was constantly added to food. Populations were X-irradiated twice in each generation (at the larvae stage with 6 Gy and at the imago stage with 9 Gy). The level of recessive mutation on the third chromosome was analyzed by a standard genetic method of balanced lethals. The data obtained have shown that the populations exposed to long-term irradiation have the greatest number of mutations decreasing viability. Melanin exhibited radioprotective properties-it reduced the percentage of lethal, semilethal and subvital mutations. Thus the possibility of effective protection of populations exposed to radiation for many generations by melanin has been shown for the first time. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  2. Effects of long-term chronic exposure to radionuclides in plant populations.

    PubMed

    Geras'kin, S; Evseeva, T; Oudalova, A

    2013-07-01

    The results of field studies carried out on different plant species (winter rye and wheat, spring barley, oats, Scots pine, wild vetch, crested hairgrass) in various radioecological situations (nuclear weapon testing, the Chernobyl accident, uranium and radium processing) to investigate the effects of long-term chronic exposure to radionuclides are discussed. Plant populations growing in areas with relatively low levels of pollution are characterized by an increased level of both cytogenetic disturbances and genetic diversity. Although ionizing radiation causes primary damage at the molecular level, there are emergent effects at the level of populations, non-predictable from the knowledge of elementary mechanisms of cellular effects formation. Accumulation of cellular alterations may afterward influence biological parameters important for populations such as health and reproduction. Presented data provide evidence that in plant populations inhabiting heavily contaminated territories cytogenetic damage could be accompanied by a decrease in reproductive capacity. However, in less contaminated sites, because of the scarcity of data available, a steady relationship between cytogenetic effects and reproductive capacity was not revealed. Under radioactive contamination of the plant's environment, a population's resistance to exposure may increase. However, there are radioecological situations where an enhanced radioresistance has not evolved or has not persisted. PMID:22483340

  3. Long-term population demography of Trillium recurvatum on loess bluffs in western Tennessee, USA

    PubMed Central

    Moore, James E.; Franklin, Scott B.; Wein, Gary; Collins, Beverly S.

    2012-01-01

    Background and aims Understanding the demography of long-lived clonal herbs, with their extreme modularity, requires knowledge of both their short- and long-term survival and ramet growth patterns. The primary objective of this study was to understand the dynamics of a clonal forest herb, Trillium recurvatum, by examining temporal and small-scale demographic patterns. We hypothesized: (i) there would be more variability in the juvenile age class compared with non-flowering adult and flowering adult classes due to year-to-year fluctuations in recruitment; (ii) rates of population growth (λ) and increase (r) would be highest in non-flowering ramets due to a combination of transitions from the juvenile stage and reversions from flowering adults; and (iii) inter-ramet distances would be most variable between flowering and juvenile ramets due to a combination of clonal growth, seed dispersal by ants and ramet death over time. Methodology Census data were collected on the total number of stems in the population from 1990 to 2007, and placed within one of three life stages (juvenile, three-leaf non-flowering and three-leaf flowering). Modified population viability equations were used to assess temporal population viability, and spatial structure was assessed using block krigging. Correlations were performed using current and prior season weather to current population demography. Principal results The first hypothesis was rejected. The second hypothesis was supported: population increase (r) and growth rate (λ) were highest in non-flowering ramets. Finally, the third hypothesis was rejected: there was no apparent density dependence within this population of Trillium and no apparent spatial structure among life stages. Conclusions Overall population density fluctuated over time, possibly due to storms that move soil, and prior year's temperature and precipitation. However, density remained at some dynamic stable level. The juvenile age class had greater variability for

  4. Standardizing flow cytometric assays in long-term population-based studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melzer, Susanne; Bocsi, Jozsef; Tárnok, Attila

    2015-03-01

    Quantification of leukocyte subpopulations and characterization of antigen-expression pattern on the cellular surface can play an important role in diagnostics. The state of cellular immunology on the single-cell level was analyzed by polychromatic flow cytometry in a recent comparative study within the average Leipzig population (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases). Data of 1699 subjects were recorded over a long-time period of three years (in a total of 1126 days). To ensure compatibility of such huge data sets, quality-controls on many levels (stability of instrumentation, low intra-laboratory variance and reader independent data analysis) are essential. The LIFE study aims to analyze various cytometric pattern to reveal the relationship between the life-style, the environmental effects and the individual health. We therefore present here a multi-step quality control procedure for long-term comparative studies.

  5. Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  6. Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  7. Competition matters: species interactions prolong the long-term effects of pulsed toxicant stress on populations.

    PubMed

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Liess, Matthias

    2014-07-01

    Recent empirical studies have revealed the importance of species competition for the effects of toxicants on populations. In the present study, the authors applied a generic individual-based simulation model of 2 competing species to analyze the consequences of interspecific competition for population dynamics under pulsed contamination. The results indicated that competition that causes a density-dependent decrease in reproduction can substantially prolong the long-term effects of the toxicant. In the example investigated, population recovery time increased from approximately 1 generation time without competition to more than 3 generation times under competition. In particular, species with low reproductive capacity exhibited a strongly prolonged recovery time when interspecific competition was included in the model. The authors conclude that toxicant concentrations derived from risk assessments for pesticides that do not consider competition might be under-protective for populations in real-world systems. The consideration of competition is especially relevant for species with low reproductive capacities to enable a realistic estimation of recovery pace. PMID:24375431

  8. Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system.

    PubMed

    Castorani, Max C N; Reed, Daniel C; Alberto, Filipe; Bell, Tom W; Simons, Rachel D; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Siegel, David A; Raimondi, Peter T

    2015-12-01

    Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment. PMID:26909421

  9. Long-term musculoskeletal morbidity after adult burn injury: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Randall, Sean M; Fear, Mark W; Wood, Fiona M; Rea, Suzanne; Boyd, James H; Duke, Janine M

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate if adults who are hospitalised for a burn injury have increased long-term hospital use for musculoskeletal diseases. Design A population-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative health data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Subjects Records of 17 753 persons aged at least 20 years when hospitalised for a first burn injury in Western Australia during the period 1980–2012, and 70 758 persons who were age and gender-frequency matched with no injury admissions randomly selected from Western Australia's electoral roll. Main outcome measures Admission rates and cumulative length of stay for musculoskeletal diseases. Negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling were used to generate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and HRs with 95% CIs, respectively. Results After adjustment for pre-existing health status and demographic characteristics, the burn cohort had almost twice the hospitalisation rate for a musculoskeletal condition (IRR, 95% CI 1.98, 1.86 to 2.10), and spent 3.70 times as long in hospital with a musculoskeletal diagnosis (95% CI 3.10 to 4.42) over the 33-year period, than the uninjured comparison cohort. Adjusted survival analyses of incident post-burn musculoskeletal disease admissions found significant increases for the 15-year post burn discharge period (0–6 months: HR, 95% CI 2.51, 2.04 to 3.11; 6 months–2 years: HR, 95% CI 1.77, 1.53 to 2.05; 2–15 years: HR, 95% CI 1.32, 1.23 to 1.42). Incident admission rates were significantly elevated for 20 years post-burn for minor and severe burn injury for a range of musculoskeletal diseases that included arthropathies, dorsopathies, osteopathies and soft tissue disorders. Conclusions Minor and severe burn injuries were associated with significantly increased post-burn incident admission rates, long-term hospital use and prolonged length of stay for a range of musculoskeletal diseases. Further research is required

  10. Introducing health gains in location-allocation models: A stochastic model for planning the delivery of long-term care

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, T.; Oliveira, M. D.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Nickel, S.

    2015-05-01

    Although the maximization of health is a key objective in health care systems, location-allocation literature has not yet considered this dimension. This study proposes a multi-objective stochastic mathematical programming approach to support the planning of a multi-service network of long-term care (LTC), both in terms of services location and capacity planning. This approach is based on a mixed integer linear programming model with two objectives - the maximization of expected health gains and the minimization of expected costs - with satisficing levels in several dimensions of equity - namely, equity of access, equity of utilization, socioeconomic equity and geographical equity - being imposed as constraints. The augmented ε-constraint method is used to explore the trade-off between these conflicting objectives, with uncertainty in the demand and delivery of care being accounted for. The model is applied to analyze the (re)organization of the LTC network currently operating in the Great Lisbon region in Portugal for the 2014-2016 period. Results show that extending the network of LTC is a cost-effective investment.

  11. Linking genetic algorithms with stochastic dynamic programming to the long-term operation of a multireservoir system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng; Yuan, Lun-Chin; Lee, Chi-Ming

    2002-12-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a genetic algorithm-based stochastic dynamic programming (GA-based SDP) to cope with the dimensionality problem of a multiple-reservoir system. The joint long-term operation of a parallel reservoir system in the Feitsui and Shihmen reservoirs in northern Taiwan demonstrates the successful application of the proposed GA-based SDP model. Within the case study system it is believed that GA is a useful technique in supporting optimization. Though the employment of GA-based SDP may be time consuming as it proceeds through generation by generation, the model can overcome the "dimensionality curse" in searching solutions. Simulation results show Feitsui's surplus water can be utilized efficiently to fill Shihmen's deficit water without affecting Feitsui's main purpose as Taipei city's water supply. The optimal joint operation suggests that Feitsui, on average, can provide 650,000 m3/day and 920,000 m3/day to Shihmen during the wet season and dry season, respectively.

  12. Wasting disease regulates long-term population dynamics in a threatened seagrass.

    PubMed

    Bull, James C; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J

    2012-05-01

    The role of disease in the long-term dynamics of threatened species is poorly quantified, as well as being under-represented in ecology and conservation management. To understand persistent host-pathogen interaction operating in a vulnerable habitat, we quantified dynamics driving patterns of seagrass density using a longitudinal study in a relatively pristine site (Isles of Scilly, UK). Replicated samples of eelgrass (Zostera marina) density and wasting disease prevalence, presumably caused by Labyrinthula zosterae, were taken from five meadows at the height of the growing season, over the years 1997-2010. Data were used to parameterise a population dynamic model, incorporating density-dependent factors and sea temperature records. We found that direct density and disease-mediated feedback operate within a network of local populations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the strength of limitation to seagrass growth by disease was increased at higher temperatures. This modification of the coupled host-pathogen dynamics forms a novel hypothesis to account for dramatic die-backs of Z. marina widely reported elsewhere. Our findings highlight the importance of disease in structuring distributions of vulnerable species, as well as the application of population modelling in order to reveal ecological processes and prioritize future mechanistic investigation. PMID:22076311

  13. Geriatrics and the triple aim: defining preventable hospitalizations in the long-term care population.

    PubMed

    Ouslander, Joseph G; Maslow, Katie

    2012-12-01

    Reducing preventable hospitalizations is fundamental to the "triple aim" of improving care, improving health, and reducing costs. New federal government initiatives that create strong pressure to reduce such hospitalizations are being or will soon be implemented. These initiatives use quality measures to define which hospitalizations are preventable. Reducing hospitalizations could greatly benefit frail and chronically ill adults and older people who receive long-term care (LTC) because they often experience negative effects of hospitalization, including hospital-acquired conditions, morbidity, and loss of functional abilities. Conversely, reducing hospitalizations could mean that some people will not receive hospital care they need, especially if the selected measures do not adequately define hospitalizations that can be prevented without jeopardizing the person's health and safety. An extensive literature search identified 250 measures of preventable hospitalizations, but the measures have not been validated in the LTC population and generally do not account for comorbidity or the capacity of various LTC settings to provide the required care without hospitalization. Additional efforts are needed to develop measures that accurately differentiate preventable from necessary hospitalizations for the LTC population, are transparent and fair to providers, and minimize the potential for gaming and unintended consequences. As the new initiatives take effect, it is critical to monitor their effect and to develop and disseminate training and resources to support the many community- and institution-based healthcare professionals and emergency department staff involved in decisions about hospitalization for this population. PMID:23194066

  14. Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils.

    PubMed

    Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

    2016-02-01

    Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated (13)C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing (13)C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears

  15. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  16. Long-term ecological changes in the densely populated rural landscapes of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Erie C.

    Asia's densely populated agricultural landscapes are undergoing unprecedented ecological changes caused by population growth and adoption of industrial technologies such as fossil fuel and chemical fertilizer. Covering nearly 6×106 km2, these landscapes now release more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural land and biomass fuel. Measuring ecological processes and their changes in these highly heterogeneous "village landscapes" is made difficult by their very small scale of management, with households typically managing many small plots using a wide variety of inputs and methods. This chapter describes the global extent of village landscapes, characterizes their spatial heterogeneity, establishes appropriate scales for ecological change measurement, and demonstrates methods developed to measure long-term ecological changes across village landscapes in China. Reliable measurements of ecological change in village landscapes can be made by integrating high-resolution (≤1 m) landscape change measurements with household-level resource management data. These methods link local land use practices with regional and local ecological change, potentially aiding land use decision-making, but require far greater research effort than conventional land use measurements based on 30-1000 m resolution imagery and county or provincial data. Therefore, a multi-scale sampling and analysis system was developed to integrate local and regional data for estimating regional change across village landscapes in China. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach in measuring and mediating the impacts of ecological changes in densely populated landscapes are discussed in light of preliminary results indicating that population increase and modernization are increasing carbon sequestration across these landscapes.

  17. Vitamin status and cognitive function in a long-term care population

    PubMed Central

    Paulionis, Lina; Kane, Sheri-Lynn; Meckling, Kelly A

    2005-01-01

    Background Ageing can be associated with poor dietary intake, reduced nutrient absorption, and less efficient utilization of nutrients. Loss of memory and related cognitive function are also common among older persons. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of inadequate vitamin status among long-term care patients and determine if an association exists between vitamin status and each of three variables; cognitive function, vitamin supplementation, and medications which alter gastric acid levels. Methods Seventy-five patients in a long-term care hospital in Guelph, Ontario were recruited to a cross-sectional study. 47 were female and the mean age was 80.7 (+/-11.5) years, ranging from 48 to 100 years. Blood was used to measure levels of vitamins B12 (cobalamin), B6 (pyridoxal-5'-phosphate/PLP), erythrocyte folate, vitamin B3 (niacin) and homocysteine (Hcy). The Standardized Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) was administered to measure cognitive function. A list of medications and vitamin supplementation for each patient was provided by the pharmacy. Results The prevalence of low vitamin (B12, B6, erythrocyte folate, niacin) or high metabolite (homocysteine) levels among 75 patients were as follows: B12 <148 pmol/L in 5/75 (6.7%); B12 between 148 and 221 pmol/L in 26/75 (34.7%); B6 ≤30 nmol/L in 4/75 (5.3%); erythrocyte folate <370 nmol/L in 1/75 (1.3%); niacin ratio ≤1 in 20/75 (26.7%); homocysteine >13.3 μmol/L in 31/75 (41.3%). There was no significant difference among residents grouped into marked (n = 44), mild (n = 14), or normal (n = 9) cognitive function when evaluating the effect of vitamin status. There were no significant differences in mean B12 and homocysteine levels between users and non-users of drug therapy (Losec, Zantac, or Axid). Compared to vitamin supplement non-users, supplemented residents had significantly higher mean B12 (p < 0.0001) and erythrocyte folate (p < 0.05) concentrations and significantly lower mean homocysteine (p

  18. Mid- to Long-term Clinical Outcomes of Hancock II Bioprosthesis in Chinese Population

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yin; Chen, Si; Hu, Xing-Jian; Shi, Jia-Wei; Dong, Nian-Guo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Compared to the Western countries, Chinese patients present a special primary disease spectrum, diverse valvular pathogenesis, and different postoperational anticoagulation strategy. This research aimed to evaluate the mid- to long-term clinical performance of Hancock II bioprosthesis in the Chinese population. Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed all patients who received surgical treatments with at least one Hancock II bioprosthesis implantation from January 2004 to December 2013 at a single center in China. Totally 647 patients were included in the clinical evaluation, and 629 patients were successfully discharge, among whom 605 patients were completely followed-up. The follow-up rate was 96.2%. The mean and median follow-up time was 62.0 ± 59.0 and 56.0 months, respectively. Postoperative outcomes of survival rates, reoperations and valve related morbidities were assessed. Continuous and categorical variables were compared using the t -test and Chi-square test, respectively. Survival and freedom from adverse events were calculated by using a Kaplan–Meier method. Results: The overall in-hospital mortality was 2.8% (18/647) while there were 34 deaths (5.6%, 34/605) in the follow-up stage after discharge. The overall survival rate was 94.6% and 82.7% at 5 years and 10 years, respectively. The cumulative survival rate of 10 years was 82.8% in AVR group, 84.4% in MVR group, and 78.4% in DVR group. The overall rate of freedom from reoperations was 95.5% at 5 years and 86.8% at 10 years. The freedom from reoperation at 10 years was 87.0%, 88.1%, and 84.0% in AVR, MVR, and DVR group, respectively. The freedom from morbidities at 10 years was: 90.3% for thromboembolism, 95.2% for hemorrhage, 97.5% for prosthesis endocarditis, 95.9% for paravalvular leak, and 94.6% for structural valve deterioration, respectively. Conclusions: Hancock II bioprosthesis exhibited a satisfactory mid- to long-term durability and promising clinical performance in the

  19. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  20. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  1. Seasonal Fluctuations and Long-Term Persistence of Pathogenic Populations of Agrobacterium spp. in Soils

    PubMed Central

    Krimi, Z.; Petit, A.; Mougel, C.; Dessaux, Y.; Nesme, X.

    2002-01-01

    Short- and long-term persistence of pathogenic (i.e., tumor forming) agrobacteria in soil was investigated in six nursery plots with a history of high crown gall incidence. No pathogenic Agrobacterium strains were isolated in soil samples taken in fall and winter in any plots, but such strains were isolated from both bulk soils and weed rhizospheres (over 0.5 × 105 pathogenic CFU/g of bulk soil or rhizosphere) in three out of six plots in spring and summer. PCR amplifications of a vir sequence from DNA extracted from soil confirmed the presence of Ti plasmids in summer and their absence in fall and winter. The results indicate that strains that harbor a Ti plasmid had an unforeseen positive fitness versus Ti plasmid-free strains in soil and rhizosphere in spring and summer in spite of the apparent absence of tumor, and hence of opines. The gain of fitness occurred during a bloom of all cultivable agrobacteria observed only in conducive soils. An evolution of the pathogenic population was recorded during a 4-year period in one particularly conducive soil. In 1990, the pathogenic population in this soil consisted of only biovar 1 strains harboring both octopine- and nopaline-type Ti plasmids. In 1994, it consisted of only nopaline-type Ti plasmids equally distributed among biovar 1 and 2 strains. These results suggest that nopaline-type Ti plasmids conferred a better survival ability than octopine-type Ti plasmids to biovar 2 agrobacteria under the present field conditions. PMID:12089015

  2. The Association Between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents’ Economic Well-Being*

    PubMed Central

    Hunter, Lori M.; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2011-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here empirically models long-term rural residents’ economic well-being, making use of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In general, the results suggest that long-term rural families residing in high-growth amenity and recreation areas tend to have higher annual incomes than do their counterparts in non-growth amenity/recreation areas, regardless of the sex, race, or age of the family head. However, higher costs-of-living in these areas supplant any relative gains in income. As such, these analyses provide empirical evidence of patterns inferred by earlier anecdotal evidence and case studies. PMID:21874070

  3. Importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on the long-term boreal forest dynamics in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuosmanen, Niina; Seppä, Heikki; Alenius, Teija; Bradshaw, Richard; Clear, Jennifer; Filimonova, Fludmila; Heikkilä, Maija; Renssen, Hans; Tallavaara, Miikka; Reitalu, Triin

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoecological data provides valuable information for understanding the processes behind the past changes in forest composition, and hence can provide important knowledge regarding the potential effects of future changes in climate on boreal vegetation. Furthermore, it is essential to consider both regional and local factors in order to better understand the processes behind the boreal forest dynamics. The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. Statistical method variation partitioning was employed to assess the relative importance of these three variables. Fossil pollen data reflecting long-term boreal forest composition, at both regional (lake records) and local (small hollow records) scales from Russia, Finland and Sweden, were used as response matrix. Climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings were used as potential drivers of long-term boreal vegetation. Though the results clearly demonstrate that climate is the main driver of long-term vegetation changes at the regional scale, the role of climate notably is smaller at local scale and the influence of local site specific factors increases. However, the relative importance of forest fires on long-term changes in boreal forest composition remain generally low both at regional and local scale. The relatively low importance of both climate and forest fires on the variation in long-term boreal forest composition at local scale demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. In general, the relative importance of human population size on long-term changes in boreal vegetation was low. However, this was the first time that this type of human population size data was statistically

  4. The Population Impact of Long-term Use of Aspirin and Risk of Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Yin; Nishihara, Reiko; Wu, Kana; Wang, Molin; Ogino, Shuji; Willett, Walter C.; Spiegelman, Donna; Fuchs, Charles S.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2016-01-01

    Importance The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended the use of aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease among many U.S adults. However, the association of aspirin on risk of other cancer types, and aspirin’s potential population-wide impact on cancer, particularly within the context of screening, remain uncertain. Objective To examine potential benefits of aspirin use for overall and subtype-specific cancer prevention, at a range of doses and duration of use, and estimate the absolute benefit of aspirin in the context of screening. Design Two large prospective cohort studies: the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980–2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986–2012). Setting Health professionals in the United States Participants 88,084 women and 47,881 men participating in the NHS and HPFS who reported aspirin use biennially. Main Outcome Measures Relative risks (RRs) for incident cancers and population attributable risk (PAR). Results During up to 32 years of follow-up, we documented 20,414 cancers among women and 7,571 among men. Compared with nonregular use, regular aspirin use was associated with lower risk of overall cancer (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99), which was primarily due to a lower incidence of gastrointestinal cancers (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80, 0.91), especially colorectal cancers (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.75, 0.88). The benefit of aspirin on gastrointestinal cancers appeared evident with use of at least 0.5 to 1.5 standard aspirin tablets per week; the minimum duration of regular use associated with lower risk was 6 years. Among individuals aged over 50, regular aspirin use could prevent 33 colorectal cancers (PAR 17.0%) among those who have not undergone a lower endoscopy and 18 colorectal cancers per 100,000 person-years (PAR 8.5%) among those who have. Regular aspirin use was not associated with risk of breast, advanced prostate, or lung cancer. Conclusions and Relevance Long-term aspirin use was

  5. Changes in microbial populations of WPC34 and WPC80 whey protein during long term storage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The use of whey protein (WPC34 and WPC80) as a food ingredient and as a base for making biodegradable products is increasing. The need to alleviate world hunger in arid and semi-arid regions demands that we investigate the behavior of native bacteria in these products, especially during long term st...

  6. Long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery: a retrospective study in a population of 379 cases.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shengkun; Lin, Zhiguo; Liu, Li; Pu, Song; Wang, Haiyang; Wang, Jiabin; Xie, Chuncheng; Yang, Changlin; Li, Meng; Shen, Hong

    2014-03-01

    We evaluated the long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery in drug-resistant epilepsy patients, and investigated preoperative factors associated with postoperative long-term surgical outcome. We performed a retrospective study of 379 patients who received epilepsy surgeries from 2000 to 2010. Patients had completed a minimum of 2-year and up to 12-year follow-up. Preoperative evaluations, surgical outcomes and clinical data of patients were collected and analyzed. We found that the epilepsy surgery was effective in drug-resistant patients and the long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery was satisfactory. The bipolar electro-coagulation could improve the surgical outcome when the epileptogenic focus was on the functional cortex. Results of the 2-year follow-up showed that preoperative seizure characteristics including the history of febrile seizure, seizure frequency, and location, quantity and range of seizure foci were significantly associated with the surgical outcome. The surgery procedure including the surgery type and the extent of resection also affected outcome. Abnormal head or hippocampus MRI, inconsistent results of preoperative investigations, seizure types, and pathology type might also be predictors of long-term surgical outcome. PMID:24461543

  7. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study

    PubMed Central

    Loane, Maria; de Walle, Hermien; Arriola, Larraitz; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Beres, Judit; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Klungsoyr, Kari; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary T; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Sipek, Antonin; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Study question What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? Methods This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. Summary answer and limitations Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. What this study adds In the absence of mandatory fortification

  8. Anemia on Admission Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Hip Fracture Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Licheng; Yin, Pengbin; Lv, Houchen; Long, Anhua; Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Lihai; Tang, Peifu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Anemia is a disputable factor for long-term mortality in hip fracture population in previous studies. Previous studies indicated that the level of hemoglobin (Hb) might fluctuate due to various factors, such as comorbidities and in-hospital interventions, and the changing level of Hb, may lead to discordance diagnosis of anemia and thus to the conflicting conclusions on prognostic value of anemia. So in this study, we aim to compare factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia at different time-points, admission, postoperation, and discharge, and to determine which the time point is most suitable for mortality prediction. This prospective cohort study included 1330 hip fracture patients from 1 January 2000 to 18 November 2012. Hb levels at 3 different time points, such as admission, postoperation, and discharge, were collected and used to stratify the cohort into anemia and nonanemia groups. Candidate factors including commodities, perioperative factors, blood transfusion, and other in-hospital interventions were collected before discharge. Logistic regression analyses were performed to detect risk factors for anemia for the 3 time points separately. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between anemia and 2-year mortality. Factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia were different for the 3 time points. Age, female sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA), and intertrochanteric fracture were associated with admission anemia, while surgical procedure, surgical duration, blood transfusion, blood loss during the operation, and drainage volume were major risk factors for postoperation anemia. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis suggested that the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in the anemia group on admission (1.680, 95%CI: 1.201–2.350, P < 0.01), but not postoperation or on discharge, after adjustment for confounding factors. Our study showed that risk factors for anemia

  9. Long-term transients and complex dynamics of a stage-structured population with time delay and the Allee effect.

    PubMed

    Morozov, A Yu; Banerjee, M; Petrovskii, S V

    2016-05-01

    Traditionally, mathematical modeling in population ecology is mainly focused on asymptotic behavior of the model, i.e. as given by the system attractors. Recently, however, transient regimes and especially long-term transients have been recognized as playing a crucial role in the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, long-term transients are a potential explanation of ecological regime shifts, when an apparently healthy population suddenly collapses and goes extinct. In this paper, we show that the interplay between delay in maturation and a strong Allee effect can result in long-term transients in a single species system. We first derive a simple 'conceptual' model of the population dynamics that incorporates both a strong Allee effect and maturation delay. Unlike much of the previous work, our approach is not empirical since our model is derived from basic principles. We show that the model exhibits a high complexity in its asymptotic dynamics including multi-periodic and chaotic attractors. We then show the existence of long-term transient dynamics in the system, when the population size oscillates for a long time between locally stable stationary states before it eventually settles either at the persistence equilibrium or goes extinct. The parametric space of the model is found to have a complex structure with the basins of attraction corresponding to the persistence and extinction states being of a complicated shape. This impedes the prediction of the eventual fate of the population, as a small variation in the maturation delay or the initial population size can either bring the population to extinction or ensure its persistence. PMID:26921467

  10. Long-term follow-up of endoscopic third ventriculostomy performed in the pediatric population.

    PubMed

    Stovell, Matthew G; Zakaria, Rasheed; Ellenbogen, Jonathan R; Gallagher, Mathew J; Jenkinson, Michael D; Hayhurst, Caroline; Mallucci, Conor L

    2016-06-01

    OBJECTIVE Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) is an effective treatment for obstructive hydrocephalus and avoids the risk for foreign-body infection associated with ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunts. The short-term failure rate of ETV strongly depends on the indications for its use but is generally thought to be lower in the long term than that of VP shunts. However, few studies are available with long-term follow-up data of ETV for hydrocephalus in children. The authors reviewed the long-term success of ETV at their institution to investigate the rate of any late failures of this procedure. METHODS Between April 1998 and June 2006, 113 children (including neonates and children up to 16 years old) had primary or secondary ETV for different causes of hydrocephalus. The patients' medical records and the authors' electronic operation database were reviewed for evidence of additional surgery (i.e., repeat ETV or VP shunt insertion). These records were checked at both the pediatric and adult neurosurgical hospitals for those patients who had their care transferred to adult services. RESULTS The median length of follow-up was 8.25 years (range 1 month to 16 years). Long-term follow-up data for 96 patients were available, 47 (49%) of whom had additional ETV or VP shunt insertion for ETV failure. Twenty patients (21%) had a second procedure within 1 month, 17 patients (18%) between 1 and 12 months, 7 patients (7%) between 1 and 5 years, and 3 patients (3%) between 5 and 8 years. CONCLUSIONS In the authors' series, ETV had an initial early failure rate for the treatment of pediatric hydrocephalus as reported previously, and this rate significantly depended on patient age and hydrocephalus etiology. Once stabilized and effective, ETV appeared to be durable but not guaranteed, and some late decline in effectiveness was observed, with some ETV failures occurring many years later. Thus, successful ETV in children cannot be guaranteed for life, and some form of follow-up is

  11. Long-Term Population-Based Cerebral Ischemic Event and Cognitive Outcomes of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Compared With Warfarin Among Long-term Anticoagulated Patients for Atrial Fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Victoria; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Stevens, Scott M; Weiss, J Peter; Woller, Scott C; Bunch, T Jared

    2016-07-15

    Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been used in clinical practice in the United States for the last 4 to 6 years. Although DOACs may be an attractive alternative to warfarin in many patients, long-term outcomes of use of these medications are unknown. We performed a propensity-matched analysis to report patient important outcomes of death, stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), bleeding, major bleeding, and dementia in patients taking a DOAC or warfarin. Patients receiving long-term anticoagulation from June 2010 to December 2014 for thromboembolism prevention with either warfarin or a DOAC were matched 1:1 by index date and propensity score. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was performed to determine the risk of death, stroke/TIA, major bleed, and dementia by the anticoagulant therapy received. A total of 5,254 patients were studied (2,627 per group). Average age was 72.4 ± 10.9 years, and 59.0% were men. Most patients were receiving long-term anticoagulation for AF management (warfarin: 96.5% vs DOAC: 92.7%, p <0.0001). Rivaroxaban (55.3%) was the most commonly used DOAC, followed by apixaban (22.5%) and dabigatran (22.2%). The use of DOACs compared with warfarin was associated with a reduced risk of long-term adverse outcomes: death (p = 0.09), stroke/TIA (p <0.0001), major bleed (p <0.0001), and bleed (p = 0.14). No significant outcome variance was noted in DOAC-type comparison. In the AF multivariable model patients taking DOAC were 43% less likely to develop stroke/TIA/dementia (hazard ratio 0.57 [CI 0.17, 1.97], p = 0.38) than those taking warfarin. Our community-based results suggest better long-term efficacy and safety of DOACs compared with warfarin. DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of cerebral ischemic events and new-onset dementia. PMID:27236255

  12. Bowel, Urinary, and Sexual Problems Among Long-Term Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Mols, Floortje Korfage, Ida J.; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Kil, Paul J.M.; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain insight into the long-term (5- to 10-year) effects of prostate cancer and treatment on bowel, urinary, and sexual function, we performed a population-based study. Prostate-specific function was compared with an age-matched normative population without prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Through the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry, we selected all men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1994 and 1998 in the southern Netherlands. In total, 964 patients, alive in November 2004, received questionnaire; 780 (81%) responded. Results: Urinary problems were most common after a prostatectomy; bowel problems were most common after radiotherapy. Compared with an age-matched normative population both urinary and bowel functioning and bother were significantly worse among survivors. Urinary incontinence was reported by 23-48% of survivors compared with 4% of the normative population. Bowel leakage occurred in 5-14% of patients compared with 2% of norms. Erection problems occurred in 40-74% of patients compared with 18% of norms. Conclusions: These results form an important contribution to the limited information available on prostate-specific problems in the growing group of long-term prostate cancer survivors. Bowel, urinary, and sexual problems occur more often among long-term survivors compared with a reference group and cannot be explained merely by age. Because these problems persist for many years, urologists should provide patients with adequate information before treatment. After treatment, there should be an appropriate focus on these problems.

  13. The implications of long term community involvement for the production and circulation of population knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Madhavan, Sangeetha; Collinson, Mark; Townsend, Nicholas W.; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.

    2010-01-01

    Demographic surveillance systems (DSS) depend on community acceptance and involvement to produce high quality longitudinal data. Ensuring community support also exposes power relations usually concealed in the research process. We discuss the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa to argue that: 1) long-term presence and community involvement contribute to high response rates and data quality, 2) to maintain community support the project must demonstrate its usefulness, 3) reporting to community members provides valuable checks on the local relevance and comprehension of questions, and 4) community opinion can modify both wording and content of research questions. PMID:20396402

  14. Population Growth in High-Amenity Rural Areas: Does it Bring Socioeconomic Benefits for Long-Term Residents?

    PubMed Central

    Onge, Jarron M. Saint; Hunter, Lori M.; Boardman, Jason D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective A widely noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to yield only low-wage service-sector employment for long-term residents, while raising local costs of living. This research examines change in socioeconomic status during the 1990s for long-term residents of high-amenity, high-growth rural counties in the United States. Methods Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, in combination with county-level information, we estimate growth-curve models to examine the extent to which the socioeconomic status of long-term residents is associated with amenity-related in-migration. Results We find that, on average, residents in high-growth, amenity-rich rural areas have higher income growth over time and higher levels of initial occupational prestige compared to those from other rural areas, but that socioeconomic gains are primarily for individuals with low baseline prestige. Conclusions The socioeconomic gains made by long-term residents of high-growth, amenity-rich rural areas associated with net in-migration may be limited to individuals with low initial prestige and growth may be due to low-skill service-sector jobs. PMID:21892234

  15. Some Consequences of Demographic Stochasticity in Population Genetics

    PubMed Central

    Parsons, Todd L.; Quince, Christopher; Plotkin, Joshua B.

    2010-01-01

    Much of population genetics is based on the diffusion limit of the Wright–Fisher model, which assumes a fixed population size. This assumption is violated in most natural populations, particularly for microbes. Here we study a more realistic model that decouples birth and death events and allows for a stochastically varying population size. Under this model, classical quantities such as the probability of and time before fixation of a mutant allele can differ dramatically from their Wright–Fisher expectations. Moreover, inferences about natural selection based on Wright–Fisher assumptions can yield erroneous and even contradictory conclusions: at small population densities one allele will appear superior, whereas at large densities the other allele will dominate. Consequently, competition assays in laboratory conditions may not reflect the outcome of long-term evolution in the field. These results highlight the importance of incorporating demographic stochasticity into basic models of population genetics. PMID:20457879

  16. Landscape resistance to dispersal: simulating long-term effects of human disturbance on a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Stronen, Astrid V; Schumaker, Nathan H; Forbes, Graham J; Paquet, Paul C; Brook, Ryan K

    2012-11-01

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part, through the effects it has on individual dispersal. In addition, some forms of human disturbance impinge on dispersal without physically fragmenting habitats. Here, we use the term "landscape resistance" to capture constraints to dispersal that cannot be linked directly to fragmentation. The extent to which landscape resistance can influence population persistence is not well understood. Agricultural development over the past 60 years has resulted in considerable habitat fragmentation in the Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) region in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. We examined how park boundaries, roads outside park boundaries and negative human attitudes have altered dispersal success and population persistence. We examined whether stochastic disturbance, representing infectious disease epidemics, further reduced long-term population persistence for various scenarios. Finally, we assessed whether the simultaneous occurrence of the three features had additive effects. We simulated dispersal using HexSim, a spatially explicit individual-based population model, parameterised with data on wolves (Canis lupus) in the RMNP region. Simulations that separately accounted for negative human attitudes and roads outside the park boundaries exhibited lower mean population size than those that ignored these details. Increasing deflection from park boundaries did not appear to have significant impacts. Our results did not indicate the presence of additive effects, and scenarios incorporating all three features had similar results as that of roads. Stochastic disturbance further reduced mean population size. Our results do illustrate how less-visible human disturbances (i.e. those that do not clearly alter landscape characteristics) can significantly limit dispersal and population persistence. PMID:22146824

  17. Long-term consequences of high incubation temperature in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

    2016-04-01

    Because incubation by birds is energetically costly, parents frequently trade off investment in incubation against self-maintenance. This can be manifested by a reduction in incubation temperature, which comes at high somatic costs for nestlings. The extent to which these costs constrain fitness is poorly understood. We incubated wild blue tit clutches at three biologically relevant temperatures and subsequently recorded winter survival and survival to the breeding season. Fledglings from the coldest treatment (35.0°C) survived less well than other fledglings, but the proportion of winter and breeding survivors did not differ significantly between treatments. However, survival probability in both seasons increased with body mass at fledging in birds from low and mid incubation temperatures, but decreased with fledging body mass in the high-temperature treatment. Mid-temperature nestlings were heavier as adults, weighing 7% more than low- and high-temperature survivors. Thus, high incubation temperature can be beneficial in the short term, but costs of accelerated embryonic development may equal those of protracted development in the long term. Such hidden consequences of faster development could maintain natural selection for average incubation temperature. PMID:27048468

  18. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning.

    PubMed

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  19. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  20. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-07-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses.

  1. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  2. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  3. Short and long term neuro-behavioral alterations in type 1 diabetes mellitus pediatric population

    PubMed Central

    Litmanovitch, Edna; Geva, Ronny; Rachmiel, Marianna

    2015-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions affecting individuals under the age of 18 years, with increasing incidence worldwide, especially among very young age groups, younger than 5. There is still no cure for the disease, and therapeutic goals and guidelines are a challenge. Currently, despite T1DM intensive management and technological interventions in therapy, the majority of pediatric patients do not achieve glycemic control goals. This leads to a potential prognosis of long term diabetic complications, nephrological, cardiac, ophthalmological and neurological. Unfortunately, the neurological manifestations, including neurocognitive and behavioral complications, may present soon after disease onset, during childhood and adolescence. These manifestations may be prominent, but at times subtle, thus they are often not reported by patients or physicians as related to the diabetes. Furthermore, the metabolic mechanism for such manifestations has been inconsistent and difficult to interpret in practical clinical care, as reported in several reviews on the topic of brain and T1DM. However, new technological methods for brain assessment, as well as the introduction of continuous glucose monitoring, provide new insights and information regarding brain related manifestations and glycemic variability and control parameters, which may impact the clinical care of children and youth with T1DM. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recently reported behavioral, cognitive domains, sleep related, electrophysiological, and structural alterations in children and adolescences from a novel point of view. The review focuses on reported impairments based on duration of T1DM, its timeline, and modifiable disease related risk parameters. These findings are not without controversy, and limitations of data are presented in addition to recommendations for future research direction. PMID:25789107

  4. The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Michael

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum. PMID:27294474

  5. Police use of handcuffs in the homeless population leads to long-term negative attitudes within this group.

    PubMed

    Krameddine, Yasmeen I; Silverstone, Peter H

    2016-01-01

    The police interact with homeless individuals frequently. However, there has been relatively little research on the attitudes of homeless individuals towards the police, and how police interactions may impact these. This is important since the attitudes of homeless individuals can impact how often they report crimes, and how well they support police when they are investigating crimes in this population. We interviewed 213 homeless individuals in a single city, representing approximately 10% of the total homeless population. They were interviewed at either homeless shelters, or events held specifically for the homeless population. Of these individuals, 75% were male, and 47% had interacted with a police officer within the past month. Self-reports suggested that 60% had a drug and/or alcohol issue and 78% had a mental illness. We found a highly statistically significant difference between the group that had been handcuffed and/or arrested compared to those that had not. This was across multiple domains and included how the individual regarded the police in terms of their empathy and communication skills, and how much they trusted the police. These changes were long-term, and if a homeless individual had been arrested or handcuffed (and verbal reporting suggested that being handcuffed was the by far the most important factor) then these negative attitudes lasted at least 2 years. The primary conclusion from this study is that when police handcuff a homeless individual, this can lead to long-term negative views about the police across several domains that appear to be long lasting, and were linked to feelings of not being respected by the police. It is therefore proposed that police officers should be made aware of the potential long-term negative consequences of this single action, and that police forces should consider providing specific training to minimize any unnecessary overuse of handcuffs. PMID:26314889

  6. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans’ Population after Hurricane Katrina

    PubMed Central

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility – both evacuation and migration – after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster. PMID:26880853

  7. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: Pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed Central

    Homewood, K.; Lambin, E. F.; Coast, E.; Kariuki, A.; Kikula, I.; Kivelia, J.; Said, M.; Serneels, S.; Thompson, M.

    2001-01-01

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use. PMID:11675492

  8. Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

    2015-06-01

    Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

  9. Extinction of metastable stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

    2010-02-01

    We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B. PMID:20365539

  10. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

    PubMed

    Vershinin, Vladimir L; Vershinina, Svetlana D; Berzin, Dmitry L; Zmeeva, Darya V; Kinev, Alexander V

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  11. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-04-10

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  12. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  13. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

    PubMed Central

    Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-01-01

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  14. Long-term variation of fiddler crab populations in North Carolina salt marshes

    SciTech Connect

    Cammen, L.M.; Seneca, E.D.; Stroud, L.M.

    1984-06-01

    As part of the environmental monitoring of possible effects of the Brunswick nuclear power plant fiddle crab populations were sampled in several salt marshes in the lower Cape Fear River estuary, North Carolina for five years. Total biomass of the fiddler crabs Uca Pugnax and U. minax in four Spartina marshes declined by 65 to 70% between the summers of 1974-1975 and 1976-1977 with no significant decrease in population density; there was evidence of a recovery in summer of 1978 to the 1974-1975 levels. The cause of these fluctuations is unknown, but such a degree of variability in intertidal populations emphasizes the need for caution in using one or two-year baseline studies to evalute potential environmental impacts. 1 figure, 2 table.

  15. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species - little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) - in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999-2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide

  16. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Amelon, Sybill K.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus

  17. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a ...

  18. Bacterial populations within copper mine tailings: long-term effects of amendment with Class A biosolids

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This study evaluates the effect of surface application of dried Class A biosolids on microbial populations within copper mine tailings. Methods and Results: Mine tailing sites were established at ASARCO Mission Mine close to Sahuarita, Arizona. Site 1 (Dec. 1998) was amended with 248 tons ha-1 of C...

  19. Long-Term Benefits of Full-Day Kindergarten: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownell, M. D.; Nickel, N. C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P. J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C. Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were…

  20. Long-term changes in a population of an invasive bivalve and its effects.

    PubMed

    Strayer, David L; Cid, Nuria; Malcom, Heather M

    2011-04-01

    Although the ecological and economic effects of non-native species probably often change through time, few studies have documented such effects. The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is an important invader that has had large ecological and economic effects on the ecosystems it has invaded in North America and western Europe. Our 20-year study of the Hudson River, New York, showed that the characteristics of a zebra mussel population and its effects on other benthic animals both changed substantially through time. Over the period of study, annual survivorship of adult zebra mussels fell >100-fold, which caused the aggregate filtration rate of the population to fall by 82%. Population size and body size of zebra mussels may also have fallen. In the early years of the invasion, densities of nearly all benthic animals in deepwater sites fell steeply (by 80-99%). After about 8 years of decline, these populations began to recover, and are approaching pre-invasion densities. The littoral zoobenthos showed neither the initial decline nor the subsequent recovery. Although the mechanisms behind these changes are not fully clear, our study shows that the effects of an invader may change considerably over time. PMID:20922431

  1. Long-term population, productivity, and energy use trends in the sequence of leading capitalist nations.

    SciTech Connect

    LePoire, D. J.

    2010-10-01

    There are many theories on why sustainable science, technology, and commerce emerged first in Western Europe rather than elsewhere. A general theory is that the geography of Europe facilitated the development of diverse and independent states and resultant competition among them. Over the past 500 years, the sequence of leading states began with Portugal and the Netherlands on the edge of continental Western Europe, then moved to the British Isles, and finally moved across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States. The transitions of leadership from one state to another occurred about every 100 years. This sequence suggests that leadership moves from smaller states to larger states (although not to the largest existing state at the time), perhaps because larger states have the flexibility to develop more complex organizational processes and adapt new technology. To explore this theory further, this paper analyzes state population data at the beginning and end of each leadership period. The data reveal an accelerating initial population sequence. Further understanding is gained from comparing the populations of the preceding and succeeding states at the time of each transition: the succeeding state's population is usually about two times larger than that of the preceding state. It is also seen that over time, the new organizational processes and technologies developed by the leading state are diffused and adapted by other states. Evidence of the effects of this diffusion should be seen in the dynamics of relative productivity and energy use (since the relative advantage of new ideas and technology can be maintained for a short period of about 100 years). This paper investigates these trends in population, trade, and resources to provide insight on possible future transitions.

  2. Estimation of Recent and Long-Term Malaria Transmission in a Population by Antibody Testing to Multiple Plasmodium falciparum Antigens

    PubMed Central

    Ondigo, Bartholomew N.; Hodges, James S.; Ireland, Kathleen F.; Magak, Ng'wena G.; Lanar, David E.; Dutta, Sheetij; Narum, David L.; Park, Gregory S.; Ofulla, Ayub V.; John, Chandy C.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Tools that estimate recent and long-term malaria transmission in a population would be highly useful for malaria elimination programs. Methods. The prevalence of antibodies to 11 Plasmodium falciparum antigens was assessed by cytometric bead assay or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 1000 people in a highland area of Kenya over 14 months, during a period of interrupted malaria transmission. Results. Antibodies differed by antigen in acquisition with age: rapid (>80% antibody positive by age 20 years, 5 antigens), moderate (>40% positive by age 20 years, 3 antigens), or slow (<40% positive by age 20 years, 3 antigens). Antibody seroreversion rates in the 14 months between samples decreased with age rapidly (7 antigens), slowly (3 antigens), or remained high at all ages (schizont extract). Estimated antibody half-lives in individuals >10 years of age were long (40 to >80 years) for 5 antigens, moderate (5–20 years) for 3 antigens, and short (<1 year) for 3 antigens. Conclusions. Antibodies to P. falciparum antigens in malaria-endemic areas vary by age, antigen, and time since last exposure to P. falciparum. Multiplex P. falciparum antibody testing could provide estimates of long-term and recent malaria transmission and potentially of a population's susceptibility to future clinical malaria. PMID:24737801

  3. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  4. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    PubMed Central

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  5. Long-term monitoring and population dynamics of ixodid ticks in Tomsk city (Western Siberia).

    PubMed

    Romanenko, Vladimir; Leonovich, Sergei

    2015-05-01

    Monitoring of two tick species (Ixodes persulcatus Schulze 1930 and Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev) was performed in four city parks of Tomsk, Russia (Camp Garden, University Park, Southern Cemetery, and Polytechnic Stadium) and in a control wild biotope in city environs (Kolarovo) in 2002-2013. Ticks were collected by flagging repeatedly after each 10 ± 1 days, starting from the disappearance of the snow cover till the end of tick activity (April-August). Gradual penetration of both tick species into city parks was demonstrated. In the wild biotope, I. persulcatus dominated during the whole period of monitoring, forming about 95% of tick population, whereas in urban biotopes I. pavlovskyi became the dominant species. Two peaks of population density during each season of spring-summer activity were observed in both species. Possible explanations of the phenomena are discussed. PMID:25633264

  6. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England.

    PubMed

    Woodcock, Ben A; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Bullock, James M; Roy, David B; Garthwaite, David G; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  7. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  8. Chronic hepatitis C: treatment, complications, and long-term outcomes in a population of Latino veterans

    PubMed Central

    Santiago-Rolon, Amarilys; Purcell, Dagmary; Grigg, Nicole; Toro, Doris H.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health problem in Puerto Rico. It is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and the most frequent indication for liver transplantation in the United States." Our main objectives were to estimate the seroprevalence of CHC infection, to describe the demographic and histological parameters of the infection in our sample population, and to evaluate the treatment outcomes in Puerto Rican veterans. Methods To determine overall seroprevalence, we reviewed all the hepatitis C cases (encompassing from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2009) of the VA Caribbean Healthcare System, Department of Veterans Affairs. The records of only those individuals who received treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin were reviewed to determine risks factors for infection, response rates, adverse events, and outcomes. Results During the study period, there were a total of 1,496 patients identified as being infected with HCV, for an estimated seroprevalence of 2.3%. Of these, approximately 10% (137) were treated with combination therapy and were included in this study. The mean age was 58 (±6.4); 96.4% were men. The most common genotype was type 1. The responses to treatment were generally poor, with only 48.4% of the patients achieving Ssustained virological response. Discussion Though the seroprevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the Latino veteran population of Puerto Rico is high, relatively few patients have received treatment, most probably because of the contraindications of the medications used. Combination therapy with pegylated interferon plus weight-based ribavirin was inefficient and plagued with side effects; as a whole, this therapy was not found to be overly beneficial to our patients. New emerging and approved therapies will change this paradigm, allowing the treatment of a larger population without the side effects of the studied therapy. PMID:26932282

  9. Spatial Analysis of Factors Influencing Long-Term Stress in the Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) Population of Alberta, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Cattet, Marc R. L.; Darimont, Chris T.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  10. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  11. Long-term variation of octocoral populations in St. John, US Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Lasker, Howard R.; Edmunds, Peter J.

    2015-12-01

    The decline in abundance of scleractinian corals over the past three decades in the Caribbean has raised the possibility that other important benthic taxa, such as octocorals, are also changing in abundance. We used photoquadrats taken over 20 yr from reefs (7-9 m depth) at six sites on the south coast of St. John, US Virgin Islands, to test the hypothesis that octocorals have changed in abundance since 1992. Octocorals were counted in 0.25 m2 photoquadrats at 2- to 3-yr intervals and identified to genus or family. Overall, there was variation over time in population density of octocorals (pooled among taxa, and also separately for Antillogorgia spp., Gorgonia spp., and plexaurids) at each site, and densities remained unchanged or increased over 20 yr; where increases in density occurred, the effects were accentuated after 2002. The local-scale analysis was expanded to the Caribbean (including the Florida Keys) by compiling data for octocoral densities from 31 studies for reefs at ≤25 m depth between 1968 and 2013. At this scale, analyses were limited by the paucity of historical data, and despite a weak trend of higher octocoral densities in recent decades, statistically, there was no change in octocoral abundance over time. Together with data from the whole Caribbean, the present analysis suggests that octocorals have not experienced a decadal-scale decline in population density, which has occurred for many scleractinian corals.

  12. Cyclic traction machine for long-term culture of fibroblast-populated collagen gels.

    PubMed

    Langelier, E; Rancourt, D; Bouchard, S; Lord, C; Stevens, P P; Germain, L; Auger, F A

    1999-01-01

    Our research group has been investigating the effect of cyclic deformations on the evolution of fibroblast populated collagen gels (FPCG). Since existing traction machines are not designed for such an application, we had to design a cyclic traction machine adapted to tissue culture inside an incubator over an extended period of time. Biocompatible materials were used for fabrication to allow for easy sterilization and to prevent any adverse reaction from the tissue. The traction machine is based on a computer-controlled stepping motor system for easy adjustment of the deformation amplitude and frequency. The maximum stretching speed achieved is around 1 mm/s. The traction machine can measure FPCG mechanical properties and perform rupture tests to determine its ultimate strength. Several FPCGs have been successfully cultured with the machine for up to four weeks without any adverse reaction. PMID:9916762

  13. Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori

    PubMed Central

    Montano, Valeria; Didelot, Xavier; Foll, Matthieu; Linz, Bodo; Reinhardt, Richard; Suerbaum, Sebastian; Moodley, Yoshan; Jensen, Jeffrey D.

    2015-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tipα) and hitherto unknown functional genes. PMID:25995212

  14. Multiple Processes Regulate Long-Term Population Dynamics of Sea Urchins on Mediterranean Rocky Reefs

    PubMed Central

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  15. Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs.

    PubMed

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  16. Long-term morbidity and mortality after hospitalization with community-acquired pneumonia: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, Jennie; Eurich, Dean T; Majumdar, Sumit R; Jin, Yan; Marrie, Thomas J

    2008-11-01

    Little is known about the long-term sequelae of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Therefore, we describe the long-term morbidity and mortality of patients after pneumonia requiring hospitalization. We specifically hypothesized that the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), designed to predict 30-day pneumonia-related mortality, would also be associated with longer-term all-cause mortality. Between 2000 and 2002, 3415 adults with CAP admitted to 6 hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, were prospectively enrolled in a population-based cohort. At the time of hospital admission, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected and the PSI was calculated for each patient. Postdischarge outcomes through to 2006 were ascertained using multiple linked administrative databases. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, and re-hospitalization for pneumonia over a maximum of 5.4 years of follow-up. Follow-up data were available for 3284 (96%) patients; 66%were > or =65 years of age, 53% were male, and according to the PSI fully 63% were predicted to have greater than 18% 30-day pneumonia-related mortality (that is, PSI class IV-V). Median follow-up was 3.8 years. The 30-day, 1-year, and end of study mortality rates were 12%, 28%, and 53%, respectively. Overall, 82(19%) patients aged <45 years died compared with 1456 (67%) patients aged > or =65 years (hazard ratio [HR], 5.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.06-6.34). Male patients were more likely to die than female patients during follow-up (971 [56%] vs. 767 [49%], respectively; HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13-1.37). Initial PSI classification predicted not only 30-day mortality, but also long-term postdischarge mortality, with 92 (15%) of PSI class I-II patients dying compared with 616 (82%) PSI class V patients (HR, 11.80; 95% CI, 4.70-14.70). Of 2950 patients who survived the initial CAP hospitalization, 72% were hospitalized again (median, 2 admissions over follow-up) and 16% were re-hospitalized with

  17. Drastic changes in aquatic bacterial populations from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico) in response to long-term environmental stress.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Silvia; Eguiarte, Luis E; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Souza, Valeria

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the changes of aquatic microbial community composition in response to changes in temperature and ultraviolet irradiation is relevant for predicting biogeochemical modifications in the functioning of natural microbial communities under global climate change scenarios. Herein we investigate shifts in the bacterioplankton composition in response to long-term changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with composite aquatic microbial communities from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexican Chihuahuan desert) and were subject to different temperatures and UV conditions. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were obtained from water samples at the mid-point (4 months) and the end of the experiment (8 months). An increase in bacterial diversity over time was found in the treatment of constant temperature and UV protection, which suggests that stable environments promote the establishment of complex and diverse bacterial community. Drastic changes in the phylogenetic bacterioplankton composition and structure were observed in response to fluctuating temperature and increasing UV radiation and temperature. Fluctuating temperature induced the largest decrease of bacterial richness during the experiment, indicating that frequent temperature changes drive the reduction in abundance of several species, most notably autotrophs. The long-term impact of these environmental stresses reduced diversity and selected for generalist aquatic bacterial populations, such as Porphyrobacter. These changes at the community level occur at an ecological time scale, suggesting that under global warming scenarios cascade effects on the food web are possible if the microbial diversity is modified. PMID:24072549

  18. Acute Anticholinesterase Pesticide Poisoning Caused a Long-Term Mortality Increase: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Weng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

    2015-07-01

    Acute anticholinesterase pesticide (organophosphate and carbamate) poisoning (ACPP) often produces severe complications, and sometimes death. We investigated the long-term mortality of patients with ACPP because it is not sufficiently understood. In this retrospective nationwide population-based cohort study, 818 patients with ACPP and 16,360 healthy comparisons from 1999 to 2010 were selected from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. They were followed until 2011. Ninety-four (11.5%) ACPP patients and 793 (4.9%) comparisons died (P < 0.01) during follow-up. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of death were 2.5 times higher in ACPP patients than in comparisons (P < 0.01). The risk of death was particularly high in the first month after ACPP (IRR: 92.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.0-191.0) and still high for ~6 months (IRR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9-7.4). After adjusting for age, gender, selected comorbidities, geographic area, and monthly income, the hazard ratio of death for ACPP patients was still 2.4 times higher than for comparisons. Older age (≥35 years), male gender, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, hypertension, stroke, mental disorder, and lower monthly income also predicted death. ACPP significantly increased long-term mortality. In addition to early follow-up after acute treatment, comorbidity control and socioeconomic assistance are needed for patients with ACPP. PMID:26222853

  19. Long-term cancer risk after hysterectomy on benign indications: Population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Altman, Daniel; Yin, Li; Falconer, Henrik

    2016-06-01

    Hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for adverse health effects. However, little is known about the association between hysterectomy and subsequent cancer occurrence later in life. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of hysterectomy on the incidence of cancer. In this population-based cohort study, we used data on 111,595 hysterectomized and 537,9843 nonhysterectomized women from nationwide Swedish Health Care registers including the Inpatient Register, the Cancer Register and the Cause of Death Register between 1973 and 2009. Hysterectomy with or without concomitant bilateral salpingo-ophorectomy (BSO) performed on benign indications was considered as exposure and incidence of primary cancers was used as outcome measure. Rare primary cancers (<100 cases for the two groups combined) were excluded from analysis. A marginal risk reduction for any cancer was observed for women with previous hysterectomy and for those with hysterectomy and concurrent BSO (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91-0.95 and HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.96, respectively). Compared to nonhysterectomized women, significant risks were observed for thyroid cancer (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45-2.14). For both hysterectomy and hysterectomy with BSO, an association with brain cancer was observed (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.32-1.65 and HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.15-1.83, respectively). Hysterectomy, with or without BSO, was not associated with breast, lung or gastrointestinal cancer. We conclude that hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for thyroid and brain cancer later in life. Further research efforts are needed to identify patient groups at risk of malignancy following hysterectomy. PMID:26800386

  20. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve

    PubMed Central

    Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  1. Long-term occupancy trends in a data-poor dugong population in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

    PubMed

    D'Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50 years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959-2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010-2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  2. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve.

    PubMed

    Breitwieser, Marine; Viricel, Amélia; Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  3. Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago

    PubMed Central

    D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  4. Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

  5. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  6. Long-term effects of ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the metabolism and population of alveolar macrophages

    SciTech Connect

    Mochitate, K.; Ishida, K.; Ohsumi, T.; Miura, T. )

    1992-04-01

    To investigate how alveolar macrophages adapt themselves to oxidative pollutants in the long term, rats were exposed to a strong oxidant, ozone (O3), or a weak oxidant, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), for a maximum duration of 12 wk. After exposures, alveolar macrophages were collected by pulmonary lavage. Throughout 11 wk of exposure to 0.2 ppm O3, the specific activities of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) and glutathione peroxidase of the peroxidative metabolic pathway and pyruvate kinase and hexokinase of the glycolytic pathway were 40-70% elevated over the controls in alveolar macrophages. The population of alveolar macrophages was consistently 60% higher than the controls. The small-sized macrophages, immature macrophages, preferentially increased. To the contrary, the thymidine incorporation per cell was always 20-30% lower than in the controls, although the total incorporation remained unchanged. No infiltration of polymorphonuclear leukocytes occurred. By 12 wk of exposures to 1.2 and 4.0 ppm NO2, the population of alveolar macrophages increased 30% over the control. Among the enzymes examined, however, only the G6PDH activity increased 10% for 4.0 ppm NO2. No increase in the enzyme activities occurred for 1.2 ppm NO2. Based on these results, alveolar macrophages adapt themselves to the long-term exposure of O3 or NO2 by recruiting immature macrophages through an apparent influx of monocytes. During the exposure to O3, the peroxidative metabolic and glycolytic pathways are enhanced persistently in alveolar macrophages, whereas both pathways were not enhanced by the exposures to NO2.

  7. Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, Robert N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons( Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsenda??s ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 199Os, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  8. Long-term Prairie Falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, K.; Kochert, M.N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  9. Increased Long-Term Risk of Dementia in Patients With Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wong, Chung-Shun; Lin, Ying-Chin; Hong, Li-Yee; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Ma, Hon-Ping; Hsu, Yung-Ho; Tsai, Shin-Han; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Wu, Mei-Yi

    2016-01-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning may cause toxicity of the central nervous system and heart. However, the association between CO poisoning and long-term dementia risk remains unestablished. We investigated the incidence of dementia in patients with CO poisoning in Taiwan and evaluated whether they had a higher risk of dementia than did the general population.A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted among patients with CO poisoning identified using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) during 2004 to 2013. CO poisoning was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The study cohort comprised patients with CO poisoning between 2005 and 2010 (N = 14,590). Each patient was age-, sex-, and index date-matched with 4 randomly selected controls from the comparison cohort (N = 58,360). All patients were followed from the study date until dementia development, death, or the end of 2013. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed for comparing the hazard ratios for dementia between the 2 cohorts.Incident cases of dementia were identified from the NHIRD.After adjustment for potential confounders, the study cohort was independently associated with a higher dementia risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 2.26-3.35).This population-based cohort study indicated that patients with CO poisoning have a higher risk of dementia than do people without CO poisoning. PMID:26817904

  10. Prevalence of unknown and untreated arrhythmias in an older outpatient population screened by wireless long-term recording ECG

    PubMed Central

    Lindberg, Terese; Bohman, Doris M; Elmståhl, Sölve; Jogréus, Claes; Sanmartin Berglund, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Purpose With longer life expectancies, the prevalence of arrhythmias is increasing; thus, there is a need for new methods to screen the older outpatient population. This population-based study describes the prevalence of arrhythmias in 200 outpatients aged ≥66 years. We also investigated the feasibility of wireless long-term recording (LTR) using the ECG-BodyKom®. Methods Two hundred elderly persons aged 66–93 years were recruited from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in 2010–2013, and data were collected via wireless LTR ECG-BodyKom. Results Screening with the LTR ECG revealed that persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) occurred in 10% of the outpatient population aged ≥66 years. Paroxysmal AF occurred in 5.5% of the population, with no difference between younger (60–80 years) and older (>80 years) elderly participants. Furthermore, all patients with paroxysmal AF had a CHA2DS2VASc score of ≥2 and were therefore potential candidates for follow-up and medical examination. LTR ECG-BodyKom can be considered a feasible method to screen for arrhythmias in older outpatient populations. This simple method requires little of the user, and there was high satisfaction with the equipment and a good overall experience wearing it. Conclusion The increasing occurrence of arrhythmias in the older population, as well as the high number of untreated cases of arrhythmias such as persistent AF and paroxysmal AF, poses a challenge for health care. Therefore, it is essential to develop effective strategies for their prevention and treatment. PMID:27570450

  11. Genetic evidence for long-term population decline in a savannah-dwelling primate: inferences from a hierarchical bayesian model.

    PubMed

    Storz, Jay F; Beaumont, Mark A; Alberts, Susan C

    2002-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to test for evidence that savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) underwent a population expansion in concert with a hypothesized expansion of African human and chimpanzee populations during the late Pleistocene. The rationale is that any type of environmental event sufficient to cause simultaneous population expansions in African humans and chimpanzees would also be expected to affect other codistributed mammals. To test for genetic evidence of population expansion or contraction, we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus microsatellite data using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations were used to estimate the posterior probability density of demographic and genealogical parameters. The model was designed to allow interlocus variation in mutational and demographic parameters, which made it possible to detect aberrant patterns of variation at individual loci that could result from heterogeneity in mutational dynamics or from the effects of selection at linked sites. Results of the MCMC simulations were consistent with zero variance in demographic parameters among loci, but there was evidence for a 10- to 20-fold difference in mutation rate between the most slowly and most rapidly evolving loci. Results of the model provided strong evidence that savannah baboons have undergone a long-term historical decline in population size. The mode of the highest posterior density for the joint distribution of current and ancestral population size indicated a roughly eightfold contraction over the past 1,000 to 250,000 years. These results indicate that savannah baboons apparently did not share a common demographic history with other codistributed primate species. PMID:12411607

  12. Long-term data reveal a population decline of the tropical lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a negative affect of el nino years on population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence. PMID:25671423

  13. Short- and long-term morbidity and mortality in the population exposed to dioxin after the "Seveso accident".

    PubMed

    Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Consonni, Dario; Bachetti, Silvia; Zocchetti, Carlo; Bonzini, Matteo; Baccarelli, Andrea; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto

    2003-07-01

    The early effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-para-dioxin (TCDD) exposure in the population involved in the Seveso, Italy, incident in 1976, have been examined in numerous studies. Chloracne was the only effect linked with sufficient certainty to dioxin exposure. The possible long-term consequences were investigated with mortality and cancer incidence studies. Mortality and morbidity findings during the 20-year period following the accident showed increased risk from lymphoemopoietic neoplasm, digestive system cancer (rectum in males, and biliary tract among females, in particular) and respiratory system cancer (lung, among males). In the incidence analyses, also thyroid gland and pleura cancer appeared suggestively increased. Soft tissue sarcomas showed an increase in the largest, yet least exposed, exposure sub-cohort. Several hypotheses associating non-cancer effects with dioxin exposure were corroborated by findings in the Seveso population: this was the case with cardiovascular effects (possibly linked to both chemical exposure and stressful disaster experience), endocrine effects (diabetes among females) and reproductive effects: exposure of men to TCDD was linked to a lowered male/female sex ratio in their offspring. The results of many Seveso studies point to possible gender effects, in accordance with animal models. Notwithstanding the acknowledged study limitations (lack of individual exposure markers, short latency, and small population size for certain cancer types), results of previous experimental and epidemiological studies, along with mechanistic knowledge on dioxin toxicity, support the hypotheses that the observed excesses might be associated with dioxin exposure. The mortality and cancer incidence follow-up of the Seveso cohort are continuing. PMID:12916742

  14. Cause-specific long-term mortality in survivors of childhood cancer in Switzerland: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Matthias; Spycher, Ben D; Ammann, Roland A; Ansari, Marc; Michel, Gisela; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2016-07-15

    Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year-, and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3,965 survivors and 49,704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. PMID:26950898

  15. Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence. PMID:25671423

  16. Gaps in understanding health and engagement with healthcare providers across common long-term conditions: a population survey of health literacy in 29 473 Danish citizens

    PubMed Central

    Friis, Karina; Lasgaard, Mathias; Osborne, Richard H; Maindal, Helle T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To (1) quantify levels of subjective health literacy in people with long-term health conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, musculoskeletal disorders, cancer and mental disorders) and compare these to levels in the general population and (2) examine the association between health literacy, socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidity in each long-term condition group. Design Population-based survey in the Central Denmark Region (n=29 473). Main outcome measures Health literacy was measured using two scales from the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ): (1) Ability to understand health information and (2) Ability to actively engage with healthcare providers. Results People with long-term conditions reported more difficulties than the general population in understanding health information and actively engaging with healthcare providers. Wide variation was found between disease groups, with people with cancer having fewer difficulties and people with mental health disorders having more difficulties in actively engaging with healthcare providers than other long-term condition groups. Having more than one long-term condition was associated with more difficulty in engaging with healthcare providers and understanding health information. People with low levels of education had lower health literacy than people with high levels of education. Conclusions Compared with the general population, people with long-term conditions report more difficulties in understanding health information and engaging with healthcare providers. These two dimensions are critical to the provision of patient-centred healthcare and for optimising health outcomes. More effort should be made to respond to the health literacy needs among individuals with long-term conditions, multiple comorbidities and low education levels, to improve health outcomes and to reduce social inequality in health. PMID:26769783

  17. Short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on benthic communities and ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations.

    PubMed

    Ragnarsson, Stefán Áki; Thorarinsdóttir, Gudrún G; Gunnarsson, Karl

    2015-08-01

    The short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations and on non-target organisms were examined in Þistilfjörður Bay, NE Iceland over a five-year period. The overall species richness was low and the fauna was composed of species typical of sandy seabeds characterised by frequent wave-induced disturbances. The initial effects of dredging on the overall benthic community were large. Most taxa were significantly affected by dredging, with abundances sometimes decreasing or increasing by more than 50% immediately after dredging. However, with the exception of the ocean quahog, their recovery was rapid, and most taxa attained similar abundances as in the undisturbed control sediments after three months, and all did so after about a year. The effects of dredging on ocean quahogs were drastic and long-lasting. Of the original ocean quahog biomass before fishing took place, the dredge captured 82%, while a further 11% was lost as a result of mortality due to shell damage and predation. The total direct and indirect loss of ocean quahog biomass within dredged tracks due to fishing was thus 93%. The recovery of ocean quahogs in fished areas was extremely slow. Five years after dredging, the total ocean quahog biomass in tracks had increased from 7% to 26% relative to that in the controls. The proportional increase among ocean quahogs of targeted sizes (>70 mm) was from 2% to 14% over the same period. This study shows that while the longer-term effects of hydraulic dredging on non-target benthic organisms were small, the effects of dredging on ocean quahog densities were drastic, with full recovery expected to take place on decadal time-scales. The impacts of dredging on ocean quahog populations at the scale of the fishery are discussed. PMID:26149090

  18. Cadmium-Related Mortality and Long-Term Secular Trends in the Cadmium Body Burden of an Environmentally Exposed Population

    PubMed Central

    Nawrot, Tim S.; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A.; Staessen, Jan A.

    2008-01-01

    Background Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. Objective We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Methods Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. Results From 1985–1989 to 1991–1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p < 0.0001 for between-area difference). From 1991–1996 until 2001–2003, BCd remained unchanged in the HEA (+ 1.8%) and increased by 19.7% in the LEA (p < 0.0001). Over the entire follow-up period, the annual decrease in BCd averaged 2.7% in the LEA (n = 258) and 1.8% in the HEA (n = 203). From 1985–1989 to 1991–1996, UCd fell by 12.9% in the LEA and by 16.6% in the HEA (p = 0.22), with mean annual decreases of 2.7% (n = 366) and 3.4% (n = 364). Over 20.3 years (median), 206 deaths (21.5%) occurred. At baseline, BCd (14.6 vs. 10.2 nmol/L) and UCd (14.1 vs. 8.6 nmol/24-hr) were higher in deaths than in survivors. The risks (p ≤ 0.04) associated with a doubling of baseline UCd were 20% and 44% for total and noncardiovascular mortality, and 25% and 33% for a doubling of BCd. Conclusions Even if zinc–cadmium smelters close, historical environmental contamination remains a persistent source of exposure. Environmental exposure to cadmium increases total and noncardiovascular mortality in a continuous fashion without threshold. PMID:19079711

  19. Population-based enrolment of adolescents in a long-term follow-up trial of human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy.

    PubMed

    Lehtinen, M; Idänpään-Heikkilä, I; Lunnas, T; Palmroth, J; Barr, E; Cacciatore, R; Isaksson, R; Kekki, M; Koskela, P; Kosunen, E; Kuortti, M; Lahti, L; Liljamo, T; Luostarinen, T; Apter, D; Pukkala, E; Paavonen, J

    2006-04-01

    We evaluated a study setting for assessment of the long-term vaccine efficacy (VE) of human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine against cervical carcinoma. A total of 22,412 16- to 17-year old adolescent women from seven cities in Finland were invited by letter to participate in a phase III study of a quadrivalent HPV (types 6, 11, 16, 18) VLP vaccine, between September 2002 and March 2003. A total of 30,947 18-year old women were invited to participate as unvaccinated controls. These women were asked about their willingness to participate in an HPV vaccination trial and to fill a health questionnaire. These three population-based cohorts of adolescent women, including women vaccinated with HPV vaccine or placebo vaccine and unvaccinated control women, are systematically followed over time. The study cohort database will be linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry using cervical carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) as endpoints. Assuming that the cumulative incidence of CIS and ICC over 15 years is 0.45%, and that there is no loss to follow-up, and power of 80%, the determination of 70% total VE will require 3357 HPV vaccine recipients, 3357 placebo vaccine recipients, and 6714 unvaccinated controls. At the baseline, 2632 (12%) of the invited adolescents volunteered to the phase III vaccination trial, and 6790 (22%) responded to the questionnaire study. During a recruitment period of 10 months, 874 HPV vaccine recipients, 875 placebo recipients and 1919 unvaccinated controls were enrolled. Population-based enrollment of large cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated adolescents for passive registry-based follow-up with cervical carcinoma as the end-point is feasible and currently going on in Finland. PMID:16595046

  20. Association of folate deficiency and selected tumor marker concentrations in long-term hexavalent chromium exposed population.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tian-Cheng; Song, Yan-Shuang; Yu, Shan-Fa; Zhang, Ji; Wang, Hui; Gu, Yong-En; Chen, Tian; Jia, Guang

    2014-01-01

    Both hexavalent chromium [Cr (VI)] exposure and folate deficiency have been associated with increased cancer risks. Our previous studies have found folate deficiency in Cr (VI) exposed population. Here the relationship between some tumor markers and folate status in long-term Cr (VI) exposure was investigated carefully to show the multiple aspects of Cr (VI) carcinogenesis. A group of 115 workers occupationally exposed to chromate and 60 matched, unexposed controls in Shandong province of China were recruited. Environmental and biological exposure assessments including personal exposure to airborne Cr and Cr contents in erythrocytes were performed. Serum folate, plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) and plasma carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), neuron specific enolase (NSE), squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC), cytokeratin fragment antigen 21-1 (CYFRA 21-1), cancer antigen 72-4 (CA72-4), as well as α-fetoprotein (AFP) were measured. Smoking index (SI) was also calculated to discriminate possible confounding effects of smoking status. Serum folate level decreased significantly, while plasma tHcy, CEA, NSE, SCC, CYFRA21-1, CA72-4 and AFP concentrations increased significantly after Cr (VI) exposure. Meanwhile, plasma CEA, NSE and SCC were negatively correlated with serum folate. SI was negatively correlated with serum folate but positively correlated with plasma tHcy, CEA and NSE levels. Present study suggests that folate deficiency was associated with increased cancer risks and might be affected by smoking in Cr (VI) exposed population. Folate might play a key role in Cr (VI) carcinogenesis although further detailed investigations are needed to clarify the mechanism of this process. PMID:23623598

  1. Parental experiences before and long-term after their children's hemispherotomy - A population-based qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Ozanne, Anneli; Verdinelli, Cecilia; Olsson, Ingrid; H Graneheim, Ulla; Malmgren, Kristina

    2016-07-01

    Severe childhood epilepsy has an impact on the whole family. For selected children, hemispherotomy is the treatment of choice. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences before and after hemispherotomy as reported at a long-term follow-up and their view on received information and support. This was a population-based qualitative descriptive study, using qualitative content analysis of interviews. Seven to eighteen years after hemispherotomy, parents of twenty-one operated children were interviewed about the family life situation, expectations before surgery, and support and information before and after surgery. Before surgery, the theme 'Living in a chaotic bubble' illuminates how parents felt: the family lived in isolation, they felt both dissatisfaction and satisfaction about support and information, and they experienced that surgery was a question about life or death. After surgery, the theme 'Hovering between success and disaster' illuminates how parents hovered between happiness if the surgery was successful and sadness about e.g., complications and behavior problems. They experienced both excellent and poor support, in hospital and at rehabilitation. Regardless of all concerns, parents were satisfied that the child had received an operation. The hemispherotomies were successful and generated a better life situation. However, in order to cope, families need support and information throughout the whole process, from the onset of epilepsy and for a long time after surgery. If the child has behavior problems, an assessment should be made before surgery in order for the families to get adequate support. The specialist team needs to be involved as early as possible and follow the families for several years after surgery. Focus should be on the whole family, if needed including grandparents; family-centered care might be relevant for this patient group. PMID:27176878

  2. Randomised controlled trial of the effect of long-term selenium supplementation on plasma cholesterol in an elderly Danish population.

    PubMed

    Cold, Frederik; Winther, Kristian H; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rayman, Margaret P; Guallar, Eliseo; Nybo, Mads; Griffin, Bruce A; Stranges, Saverio; Cold, Søren

    2015-12-14

    Although cross-sectional studies have shown a positive association between Se and cholesterol concentrations, a recent randomised controlled trial in 501 elderly UK individuals of relatively low-Se status found that Se supplementation for 6 months lowered total plasma cholesterol. The Danish PRECISE (PREvention of Cancer by Intervention with Selenium) pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01819649) was a 5-year randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with four groups (allocation ratio 1:1:1:1). Men and women aged 60-74 years (n 491) were randomised to 100 (n 124), 200 (n 122) or 300 (n 119) μg Se-enriched yeast or matching placebo-yeast tablets (n 126) daily for 5 years. A total of 468 participants continued the study for 6 months and 361 participants, equally distributed across treatment groups, continued for 5 years. Plasma samples were analysed for total and HDL-cholesterol and for total Se concentrations at baseline, 6 months and 5 years. The effect of different doses of Se supplementation on plasma lipid and Se concentrations was estimated by using linear mixed models. Plasma Se concentration increased significantly and dose-dependently in the intervention groups after 6 months and 5 years. Total cholesterol decreased significantly both in the intervention groups and in the placebo group after 6 months and 5 years, with small and nonsignificant differences in changes in plasma concentration of total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and total:HDL-cholesterol ratio between intervention and placebo groups. The effect of long-term supplementation with Se on plasma cholesterol concentrations or its sub-fractions did not differ significantly from placebo in this elderly population. PMID:26420334

  3. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  4. Long-term persistence of synthetic populations of a lowland switchgrass ecotype and the cultivar Cave-in-Rock

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Upland cultivars of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), such as ‘Cave-in-Rock’, are most frequently recommended for the northeastern USA. Lowland ecotypes typically originate from more southerly locations and have coarser stems than upland ecotypes. Long-term data on the persistence and yield of lowl...

  5. The Chronicity of Self-Injurious Behaviour: A Long-Term Follow-Up of a Total Population Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Lorne; Oliver, Chris; Murphy, Glynis

    2011-01-01

    Background: Self-injurious behaviour (SIB) is a relatively common problem for people with intellectual disabilities and it is known to be associated with various risk markers, such as degree of disability, sensory impairments, and autism (McClintock "et al." 2003). Less is known about its long-term course however. Method: The present study was…

  6. Spotlight on "Long-Term English Language Learners": Characteristics and Prior Schooling Experiences of an Invisible Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menken, Kate; Kleyn, Tatyana; Chae, Nabin

    2012-01-01

    This article presents qualitative research findings about the characteristics and prior schooling experiences of "long-term English language learners" (LTELLs), who have attended U.S. schools for 7 years or more, and about whom there is little empirical research, despite their significant numbers. Findings indicate that these students are orally…

  7. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  8. Self-reported Occupational Skin Exposure and Risk of Physician-certified Long-term Sick Leave: A Prospective Study of the General Working Population of Norway.

    PubMed

    Alfonso, Jose H; Tynes, Tore; Thyssen, Jacob P; Holm, Jan-Øivind; Johannessen, Håkon A

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway. Occupational skin exposure (in 2009) was measured based on 5 items. The outcome of interest was physician-certified long-term sick leave ≥ 16 days during 2010. Statistical adjustment for psychosocial and mechanical occupational exposures was performed. Long-term sick leave was predicted by occupational skin exposure to cleaning products (odds ratio (OR) 1.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-2.5) and waste (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.7) among men, and occupational skin exposure to water (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.6) among women. The estimated population attributable risk for occupational skin exposure was 14.5%, which emphasizes its contribution as an important risk factor for long-term sick leave. PMID:26439508

  9. Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

  10. Association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a nationwide population-based, propensity score-matched, cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Li-Hsin; Lin, Liang-Yu; Tsai, Ming-Tsun; How, Chorng-Kuang; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Hu, Sung-Yuan; Hsieh, Ming-Shun

    2016-01-01

    Objective Hyperglycaemic crisis was associated with significant intrahospital morbidity and mortality. However, the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term cardiovascular outcomes remained unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and subsequent long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Participants and methods This population-based cohort study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period of 1996–2012. A total of 2171 diabetic patients with hyperglycaemic crisis fit the inclusion criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match the baseline characteristics of the study cohort to construct a comparison cohort which comprised 8684 diabetic patients without hyperglycaemic crisis. The risk of long-term MACEs was compared between the two cohorts. Results Six hundred and seventy-six MACEs occurred in the study cohort and the event rate was higher than that in the comparison cohort (31.1% vs 24.1%, p<0.001). Patients with hyperglycaemic crisis were associated with a higher risk of long-term MACEs even after adjusting for all baseline characteristics and medications (adjusted HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.62 to 1.92, p<0.001). Acute myocardial infarction had the highest adjusted HR (adjusted HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75, p<0.001) in the four types of MACEs, followed by congestive heart failure (adjusted HR=1.97, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.28, p<0.001). Younger patients with hyperglycaemic crisis had a higher risk of MACEs than older patients (adjusted HR=2.69 for patients aged 20–39 years vs adjusted HR=1.58 for patients aged >65 years). Conclusions Hyperglycaemic crisis was significantly associated with long-term MACEs, especially in the young population. Further prospective longitudinal study should be conducted for validation. PMID:27554106

  11. Long-term signal of population disturbance after pulse exposure to an insecticide: rapid recovery of abundance, persistent alteration of structure.

    PubMed

    Liess, Matthias; Pieters, Barry Johan; Duquesne, Sabine

    2006-05-01

    Little is known about the effect of pulse exposure to toxicants on populations when density regulation is present. Yet, for a more realistic risk assessment, it is necessary to include effect and recovery at the population level. Here, we investigate the long-term and delayed effects as well as the subsequent recovery of populations of Daphnia magna. A 24-h pulse of the pyrethroid fenvalerate reduced the abundance at a concentration of 1.0 microg/L and higher. However, abundance recovered and reached control levels after one to two generation times (GTs) following reproduction of surviving individuals (GT = 8 d, from birth until first reproduction). At high concentrations above the acute median lethal concentration (3.2 micorg/L), abundance initially decreased even more strongly but was then elevated compared to control values for an extended period of time. Population structure (size distribution) was affected at lower concentrations than abundance (> 0.8 microg/L). In addition, the alteration of population structure lasted for a long time, so that control levels were approached only after approximately six or seven GTs. Our results show that pulse exposure to toxicants may lead to a long-term alteration of population structure even at sublethal concentrations. Possible mechanisms that sustain the effects of toxicants may be delayed life-history effects on the individual level and elevated competition because of altered population structure on the population level. PMID:16704065

  12. The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-01-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km−2 and 3,820 persons·km−2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  13. Monitoring Tree Population Dynamics in Arid Zone Through Multiple Temporal Scales: Integration of Spatial Analysis, Change Detection and Field Long Term Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaacson, S.; Rachmilevitch, S.; Ephrath, J. E.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

    2016-06-01

    High mortality rates and lack of recruitment in the acacia populations throughout the Negev Desert and the Arava rift valley of Israel have been reported in previous studies. However, it is difficult to determine whether these reports can be evidence to a significant decline trend of the trees populations. This is because of the slow dynamic processes of acaia tree populations and the lack of long term continuous monitoring data. We suggest a new data analysis technique that expands the time scope of the field long term monitoring of trees in arid environments. This will enables us to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of these populations. We implemented two different approaches in order to expand the time scope of the acacia population field survey: (1) individual based tree change detection using Corona satellite images and (2) spatial analysis of trees population, converting spatial data into temporal data. The next step was to integrate the results of the two analysis techniques (change detection and spatial analysis) with field monitoring. This technique can be implemented to other tree populations in arid environments to help assess the vegetation conditions and dynamics of those ecosystems.

  14. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  15. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub.

    PubMed

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M; Caldeira, Maria C; Clemente, Adelaide S; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N

    2016-01-01

    Plant-animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  16. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub

    PubMed Central

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M.; Caldeira, Maria C.; Clemente, Adelaide S.; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N.

    2016-01-01

    Plant–animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  17. Placental abruption and long-term maternal cardiovascular disease mortality: a population-based registry study in Norway and Sweden.

    PubMed

    DeRoo, Lisa; Skjærven, Rolv; Wilcox, Allen; Klungsøyr, Kari; Wikström, Anna-Karin; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; Cnattingius, Sven

    2016-05-01

    Women with preeclamptic pregnancies have increased long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We explored this mortality risk among women with placental abruption, another placental pathology. We used linked Medical Birth Registry and Death Registry data to study CVD mortality among over two million women with a first singleton birth between 1967 and 2002 in Norway and 1973 and 2003 in Sweden. Women were followed through 2009 and 2010, respectively, to ascertain subsequent pregnancies and mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate associations between placental abruption and cardiovascular mortality adjusting for maternal age, education, year of the pregnancy and country. There were 49,944 deaths after an average follow-up of 23 years, of which 5453 were due to CVD. Women with placental abruption in first pregnancy (n = 10,981) had an increased risk of CVD death (hazard ratio 1.8; 95 % confidence interval 1.3, 2.4). Results were essentially unchanged by excluding women with pregestational hypertension, preeclampsia or diabetes. Women with placental abruption in any pregnancy (n = 23,529) also had a 1.8-fold increased risk of CVD mortality (95 % confidence interval 1.5, 2.2) compared with women who never experienced the condition. Our findings provide evidence that placental abruption, like other placental complications of pregnancy, is associated with women's increased risk of later CVD mortality. PMID:26177801

  18. Long-term changes in cyanobacteria populations in lake kinneret (sea of galilee), Israel: an eco-physiological outlook.

    PubMed

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret's vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  19. Long-Term Changes in Cyanobacteria Populations in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel: An Eco-Physiological Outlook

    PubMed Central

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret’s vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  20. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  1. Long Term Illness and Wages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandy, Robert; Elliott, Robert R.

    2005-01-01

    Long-term illness (LTI) is a more prevalent workplace risk than fatal accidents but there is virtually no evidence for compensating differentials for a broad measure of LTI. In 1990 almost 3.4 percent of the U.K. adult population suffered from a LTI caused solely by their working conditions. This paper provides the first estimates of compensating…

  2. Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, D.H.; Doak, D.F.; Ballachey, B.E.; Bodkin, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as

  3. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  4. Landscape resistance to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects for a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Considerable fragmentation of native habitats and loss of forest cover has occurred in association with agricultural development over the past 50 years in o...

  5. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports

    PubMed Central

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-01-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006–2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  6. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports.

    PubMed

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-06-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006-2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  7. Reduced flight-to-light behaviour of moth populations exposed to long-term urban light pollution.

    PubMed

    Altermatt, Florian; Ebert, Dieter

    2016-04-01

    The globally increasing light pollution is a well-recognized threat to ecosystems, with negative effects on human, animal and plant wellbeing. The most well-known and widely documented consequence of light pollution is the generally fatal attraction of nocturnal insects to artificial light sources. However, the evolutionary consequences are unknown. Here we report that moth populations from urban areas with high, globally relevant levels of light pollution over several decades show a significantly reduced flight-to-light behaviour compared with populations of the same species from pristine dark-sky habitats. Using a common garden setting, we reared moths from 10 different populations from early-instar larvae and experimentally compared their flight-to-light behaviour under standardized conditions. Moths from urban populations had a significant reduction in the flight-to-light behaviour compared with pristine populations. The reduced attraction to light sources of 'city moths' may directly increase these individuals' survival and reproduction. We anticipate that it comes with a reduced mobility, which negatively affects foraging as well as colonization ability. As nocturnal insects are of eminent significance as pollinators and the primary food source of many vertebrates, an evolutionary change of the flight-to-light behaviour thereby potentially cascades across species interaction networks. PMID:27072407

  8. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  9. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management--Part A: methodology.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. PMID:19800164

  10. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Berkhout, J; Stone, J A; Verhamme, K M; Stricker, B H; Sturkenboom, M C; Danhof, M; Post, T M

    2015-09-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis. PMID:26451331

  11. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

    PubMed Central

    Berkhout, J; Stone, JA; Verhamme, KM; Stricker, BH; Sturkenboom, MC; Danhof, M; Post, TM

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis. PMID:26451331

  12. Secondary Surge Capacity: A Framework for Understanding Long-Term Access to Primary Care for Medically Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Recovery

    PubMed Central

    Brock-Martin, Amy; Karmaus, Wilfried; Svendsen, Erik R.

    2012-01-01

    Disasters create a secondary surge in casualties because of the sudden increased need for long-term health care. Surging demands for medical care after a disaster place excess strain on an overtaxed health care system operating at maximum or reduced capacity. We have applied a health services use model to identify areas of vulnerability that perpetuate health disparities for at-risk populations seeking care after a disaster. We have proposed a framework to understand the role of the medical system in modifying the health impact of the secondary surge on vulnerable populations. Baseline assessment of existing needs and the anticipation of ballooning chronic health care needs following the acute response for at-risk populations are overlooked vulnerability gaps in national surge capacity plans. PMID:23078479

  13. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    SciTech Connect

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  14. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    DOEpatents

    Stampfer, Martha R.; Garbe, James C.

    2016-06-28

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  15. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

    PubMed Central

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  16. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  17. Alcohol Habits in Patients with Long-Term Musculoskeletal Pain: Comparison with a Matched Control Group from the General Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thelin Bronner, Kerstin Birgitta; Wennberg, Peter; Kallmen, Hakan; Schult, Marie-Louise Birgitta

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to describe alcohol habits in patients with chronic pain compared with those in a matched control group from the general Swedish population. In total, 100 consecutive patients enrolled were matched against 100 individuals in a control group on the basis of age and sex. Alcohol habits were measured using the Alcohol Use…

  18. Mid- and long-term effects of family constellation seminars in a general population sample: 8- and 12-month follow-up.

    PubMed

    Hunger, Christina; Weinhold, Jan; Bornhäuser, Annette; Link, Leoni; Schweitzer, Jochen

    2015-06-01

    In a previous randomized controlled trial (RCT), short-term efficacy of family constellation seminars (FCSs) in a general population sample was demonstrated. In this article, we examined mid- and long-term stability of these effects. Participants were 104 adults (M = 47 years; SD = 9; 84% female) who were part of the intervention group in the original RCT (3-day FCS; 64 active participants and 40 observing participants). FCSs were carried out according to manuals. It was predicted that FCSs would improve psychological functioning (Outcome Questionnaire OQ-45.2) at 8- and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, we assessed the effects of FCSs on psychological distress, motivational incongruence, individuals' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. Participants yielded significant improvement in psychological functioning (d = 0.41 at 8-month follow-up, p = .000; d = 0.40 at 12-month follow-up, p = .000). Results were confirmed for psychological distress, motivational incongruence, the participants' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. No adverse events were reported. This study provides first evidence for the mid- and long-term efficacy of FCSs in a nonclinical population. The implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25264190

  19. Chance and risk of controlling rabies in large-scale and long-term immunized fox populations.

    PubMed

    Tischendorf, L; Thulke, H H; Staubach, C; Müller, M S; Jeltsch, F; Goretzki, J; Selhorst, T; Müller, T; Schlüter, H; Wissel, C

    1998-05-22

    The large-scale immunization of European fox populations against rabies is currently under the microscope for reducing the considerable expenditure without putting public health at risk. Empirical knowledge is inadequate to interpret the lasting sporadic incidences and, therefore, to verify the final success of the immunization campaigns. By using a proven simulation model we show that rabies can persist on a very low level in the form of spatio-temporal moving infection clusters within a highly immunized fox population. We found further: (i) the existence of a threshold after which the chance of eradicating the disease by vaccination increases clearly, and (ii) that at least six years of 70% mean immunization rate are required to guarantee a likely success. PMID:9633109

  20. In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives.

    PubMed

    Kalisz, Susan; Spigler, Rachel B; Horvitz, Carol C

    2014-03-25

    A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading. Because population growth is multiplicative across time, we introduce metrics that correctly integrate experimental effects across treatment years, the cumulative population growth rate, λc, and its geometric mean, λper-year, the time-averaged annual population growth rate. We determined λc and λper-year of the invader and of a common native, Trillium erectum. Our results conclusively demonstrate that deer are required for the success of Alliaria; its projected population trajectory shifted from explosive growth in the presence of deer (λper-year = 1.33) to decline toward extinction where deer are excluded (λper-year = 0.88). In contrast, Trillium's λper-year was suppressed in the presence of deer relative to deer exclusion (λper-year = 1.04 vs. 1.20, respectively). Retrospective sensitivity analyses revealed that the largest negative effect of deer exclusion on Alliaria came from rosette transitions, whereas the largest positive effect on Trillium came from reproductive transitions. Deer exclusion lowered Alliaria density while increasing Trillium density. Our results provide definitive experimental support that interactions with overabundant ungulates enhance demographic success of invaders and depress natives' success, with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. PMID:24616522

  1. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management---Part B: case study.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, a solid waste decision-support system was developed for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. Interactions among various system components, objectives, and constraints will be analyzed. Issues concerning planning for cost-effective diversion and prolongation of the landfill will be addressed. Decisions of system-capacity expansion and waste allocation within a multi-facility, multi-option, and multi-period context will be obtained. The obtained results would provide useful information and decision-support for the City's solid waste management and planning. In the application, four scenarios are considered. Through the above scenario analyses under different waste-management policies, useful decision support for the City's solid waste managers and decision makers was generated. Analyses for the effects of varied policies (for allowable waste flows to different facilities) under 35 and 50% diversion goals were also undertaken. Tradeoffs among system cost and constraint-violation risk were analyzed. Generally, a policy with lower allowable waste-flow levels corresponded to a lower system cost under advantageous conditions but, at the same time, a higher penalty when such allowances were violated. A policy with higher allowable flow levels corresponded to a higher cost under disadvantageous conditions. The modeling results were useful for (i) scheduling adequate time and capacity for long-term planning of the facility development and/or expansion in the city's waste management system, (ii) adjusting of the existing waste flow allocation patterns to satisfy the city's diversion goal, and (iii) generating of desired policies for managing the city's waste generation, collection and disposal. PMID:19818549

  2. Long-Term Assessment of Wild Boar Harvesting and Cattle Removal for Bovine Tuberculosis Control in Free Ranging Populations

    PubMed Central

    Mentaberre, Gregorio; Romero, Beatriz; de Juan, Lucía; Navarro-González, Nora; Velarde, Roser; Mateos, Ana; Marco, Ignasi; Olivé-Boix, Xavier; Domínguez, Lucas; Lavín, Santiago; Serrano, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Wild boar is a recognized reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Mediterranean ecosystems, but information is scarce outside of hotspots in southern Spain. We describe the first high-prevalence focus of TB in a non-managed wild boar population in northern Spain and the result of eight years of TB management. Measures implemented for disease control included the control of the local wild boar population through culling and stamping out of a sympatric infected cattle herd. Post-mortem inspection for detection of tuberculosis-like lesions as well as cultures from selected head and cervical lymph nodes was done in 745 wild boar, 355 Iberian ibexes and five cattle between 2004 and 2012. The seasonal prevalence of TB reached 70% amongst adult wild boar and ten different spoligotypes and 13 MIRU-VNTR profiles were detected, although more than half of the isolates were included in the same clonal complex. Only 11% of infected boars had generalized lesions. None of the ibexes were affected, supporting their irrelevance in the epidemiology of TB. An infected cattle herd grazed the zone where 168 of the 197 infected boars were harvested. Cattle removal and wild boar culling together contributed to a decrease in TB prevalence. The need for holistic, sustained over time, intensive and adapted TB control strategies taking into account the multi-host nature of the disease is highlighted. The potential risk for tuberculosis emergence in wildlife scenarios where the risk is assumed to be low should be addressed. PMID:24558435

  3. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Colin A.; Schoof, Valérie A. M.; Bonnell, Tyler R.; Gogarten, Jan F.; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  4. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-05-26

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  5. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  6. Some results of long-term investigation population exposed as a result of release of radioactive wastes into the Techa River in Southern Urals

    SciTech Connect

    Degteva, M.O.; Kozheurov, V.P.; Vorobiova, M.I.

    1992-06-01

    This paper describes results of a long-term investigation of a population exposed to radioactive waste release in 1949-1956 into the Techa River in the Southern Urals. Systematic measurements of radionuclide concentration in the river waters, sediments, and floodplain soils and measurements of exposure gamma dose rates as well as studies of the radionuclide composition in the contaminated areas began in the summer of 1951. As a result of the contamination, 124,000 residents were exposed to radiation and 28,100 received significant doses in terms of health effect potential. Covered results include the following: estimation of external radiation doses; content of strontium-90 in humans and estimation of radionuclide ingestion rates; age-dependent model of strontium metabolism in the human body; evaluation of doses of internal irradiation; distribution of exposed population according to accumulated doses. 11 refs; 15 figs.

  7. Social network in long-term diseases: a comparative study in relatives of persons with schizophrenia and physical illnesses versus a sample from the general population.

    PubMed

    Magliano, Lorenza; Fiorillo, Andrea; Malangone, Claudio; De Rosa, Corrado; Maj, Mario

    2006-03-01

    This study compares the social network of a sample of 709 relatives of patients with schizophrenia, 646 relatives of patients with physical diseases, and 714 lay respondents, recruited in 30 randomly selected Italian areas, stratified for geographic location and population density. Each respondent was asked to fill in the Social Network Questionnaire. The social network was less extended and supportive in relatives of patients with schizophrenia than in those of patients with physical diseases and in the general population. Multivariate analyses revealed that social contacts were similarly reduced in relatives of patients with schizophrenia and physical diseases, while social support was significantly lower in relatives of patients with schizophrenia than in the other two groups. Social resources were higher in young respondents and in those living in rural areas. These results highlight the need to provide the families of those with long-term diseases with interventions aimed at increasing their social resources. PMID:16162379

  8. Long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (Croatia) related to eutrophication patterns in the northern Adriatic Sea.

    PubMed

    Iveša, Ljiljana; Djakovac, Tamara; Devescovi, Massimo

    2016-05-15

    An exploration of historical data suggested that eutrophication patterns might drive long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (northern Adriatic Sea, Croatia). The regimes of northern Italian rivers, which flow approximately 100km west of the study area, mainly modulate the eutrophication levels of the northern Adriatic Sea. A regression of Cystoseira populations from the 1970s through the 1990s corresponded to increased levels of eutrophication in the study area. During the late 1990s, the density of sea urchins, which are efficacious macroalgal predators, decreased, likely due to an intense formation of pelagic mucilage aggregates that resulted in mass mortality episodes of macrozoobenthic species. During the 2000-2013 period, an oligotrophication of the northern Adriatic formed the basis for the recovery of Cystoseira taxa, whose abundances from 2009 to 2013 were similar to those characterising the most flourishing Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages. PMID:26975612

  9. The roles of flowering, overwinter survival and sea surface temperature in the long-term population dynamics of Zostera marina around the Isles of Scilly, UK.

    PubMed

    Potouroglou, Maria; Kenyon, Emma J; Gall, Angie; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2014-06-30

    Interaction between biotic and abiotic drivers of dynamics is an important topic in ecology. Despite numerous short-term studies, there is a paucity of evidence about how environmental structure modifies dynamics in marine systems. We quantified Zostera marina flowering and non-flowering shoot density annually from 1996 to 2012 around the Isles of Scilly, UK, parameterizing a population dynamic model. Flowering is structured in time and space, with temperature and flowering positively associated at some locations only. We found no evidence that flower production contributes to seagrass density but 'patchiness' was positively associated with flowering in the previous year. With evidence of substantial overwinter survival, findings support the hypothesis that local populations are maintained largely through vegetative reproduction but sexual reproduction may contribute to colonisation of vacant habitat. This long-term study (1) tests validity of shorter-term investigations, (2) quantifies interaction between biotic and abiotic factors and (3) promotes seagrass as a model ecosystem. PMID:24731880

  10. Long-term development of the radionuclide exposure of murine rodent populations in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Ryabokon, N I; Smolich, I I; Kudryashov, V P; Goncharova, R I

    2005-12-01

    As a determinant of the associated health risks, the behavior of radionuclides in natural ecosystems needs to be better understood. Therefore, the activity concentration of various long-lived radionuclides released due to the Chernobyl accident, and the corresponding contributions to the whole-body dose rate, was studied as a function of time in mammalian indicator species inhabiting the natural forest ecosystems of Belarus, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) and the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollus). The activity concentrations of 137Cs, 134Cs, 90Sr, 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am in soil and in animals were measured at five monitoring sites with different ground deposition of radionuclides at different distances from the destroyed reactor. The observed temporal pattern of the radionuclide activity concentration in the studied animal populations reflects the changes in biological availability of these isotopes for biota, mostly due to fuel particle destruction and appearance of dissolved and exchangeable forms of radionuclides. The time course of 134+137Cs activity concentrations in animal populations appeared as a sequence of increase, peak and decrease. Maximal levels of radiocesium occurred 1-2 years after deposition, followed by an exponential decrease. Concentrations of incorporated 90Sr increased up to the tenth year after deposition. The activity concentrations of transuranic elements (238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am) were much lower than those of the other radionuclides, in the studied animals. A considerable activity of 241Am in animals from areas with high levels of contamination was firstly detected 5 years after deposition, it increased up to the tenth year and is expected to increase further in the future. Maximal values of the whole-body absorbed dose rates occurred during the year of deposition, followed by a decrease in the subsequent period. Generally, this decrease was monotonic, mainly determined by the decrease of the

  11. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates

    PubMed Central

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-terWengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-01-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  12. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates.

    PubMed

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-Terwengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-02-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000-12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000-67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700-44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70-110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  13. The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

    PubMed

    Gleim, Elizabeth R; Conner, L Mike; Berghaus, Roy D; Levin, Michael L; Zemtsova, Galina E; Yabsley, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  14. The Phenology of Ticks and the Effects of Long-Term Prescribed Burning on Tick Population Dynamics in Southwestern Georgia and Northwestern Florida

    PubMed Central

    Gleim, Elizabeth R.; Conner, L. Mike; Berghaus, Roy D.; Levin, Michael L.; Zemtsova, Galina E.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  15. Long-term fracture risk in patients with celiac disease: a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

    PubMed

    Jafri, Mohammed R; Nordstrom, Charles W; Murray, Joseph A; Van Dyke, Carol T; Dierkhising, Ross A; Zinsmeister, Alan R; Melton, Lee J

    2008-04-01

    Celiac disease is associated with decreased bone density, but there are conflicting data regarding fracture risk. We determined the fracture incidence relative to matched controls in a population-based cohort with celiac disease before and after diagnosis. Olmsted County residents with celiac disease (n = 83) diagnosed between 1950 and 2002 were compared with 166 gender and age matched controls. Fracture histories were ascertained from each subject's medical records. Celiac disease is linked to an increased fracture risk before and after diagnosis. Before the index date, cases had a fracture rate twice that of controls (CI: 1.0-3.9, P = 0.045) and 2.5-fold greater after the index date (CI: 1.1-5.6, P = 0.026). Appendicular and axial fractures were 2.5 (CI: 0.9-6.5) and 3.2 times more likely (CI: 1.0-10.5) after the index date. These observations support a rationale for earlier detection of celiac disease, and active management of bone disease before bone effects have occurred, to reduce the persistent risk of fractures. PMID:17934823

  16. Trace metals in the environment and population as possible long term consequence of war in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia.

    PubMed

    Vidosavljević, Domagoj; Puntarić, Dinko; Gvozdić, Vlatka; Jergović, Matijana; Jurčev-Savičević, Anamarija; Puntarić, Ida; Vidosavljević, Marina

    2014-09-01

    War in Croatia resulted with a significant release of contaminants into the environment as a result of the use of combat assets, mainly conventional, mostly aimed at civilian targets. The aim of the study was to investigate the concentration of metals and metalloids in the soils, water, plants (Taraxacum officinale), serum, urine and hair of the inhabitants in eastern Croatia. Overall results show minor abnormalities in presence of some trace metals in soil (As, Hg, Pb, Sb), water (As, Fe) and dandelion leaves (As) in some locations. Compared with soil samples from areas exposed to low intensity combat activity soil samples from areas exposed to heavy fighting had higher concentrations of As, Hg and Pb than allowed by national legislation for ecologic farming. Drinking water with the exceptions of the concentrations of Fe, As and Mn was in accordance with national legislation. Examinees from Dalj had mean hair Sb level 10-19x higher then examinees from any other location. However, when these data are correlated through methods of principal component analysis, presence of trace metals in some war affected areas can be followed from soil, through plants up to population proving that intense combat activities over small area leave metal presence that can be followed even 15 years after the war. PMID:25507359

  17. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  18. Trace metals in the environment and population as possible long term consequence of war in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia.

    PubMed

    Vidosavljević, Domagoj; Puntarić, Dinko; Gvozdić, Vlatka; Jergović, Matijana; Jurčev-Savičević, Anamarija; Puntarić, Ida; Vidosavljević, Marina

    2014-09-01

    War in Croatia resulted with a significant release of contaminants into the environment as a result of the use of combat assets, mainly conventional, mostly aimed at civilian targets. The aim of the study was to investigate the concentration of metals and metalloids in the soils, water, plants (Taraxacum officinale), serum, urine and hair of the inhabitants in eastern Croatia. Overall results show minor abnormalities in presence of some trace metals in soil (As, Hg, Pb, Sb), water (As, Fe) and dandelion leaves (As) in some locations. Compared with soil samples from areas exposed to low intensity combat activity soil samples from areas exposed to heavy fighting had higher concentrations of As, Hg and Pb than allowed by national legislation for ecologic farming. Drinking water with the exceptions of the concentrations of Fe, As and Mn was in accordance with national legislation. Examinees from Dalj had mean hair Sb level 10-19x higher then examinees from any other location. However, when these data are correlated through methods of principal component analysis, presence of trace metals in some war affected areas can be followed from soil, through plants up to population proving that intense combat activities over small area leave metal presence that can be followed even 15 years after the war. PMID:25420375

  19. Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2015-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic

  20. Occurrence and Prevalence of Insect Pathogens in Populations of the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella L.: A Long-Term Diagnostic Survey

    PubMed Central

    Zimmermann, Gisbert; Huger, Alois M.; Kleespies, Regina G.

    2013-01-01

    About 20,550 larvae, pupae and adults of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella L., were diagnosed for pathogens during long-term investigations (1955–2012) at the Institute for Biological Control in Darmstadt, Germany. The prevailing entomopathogens diagnosed in these studies were insect pathogenic fungi, especially Beauveria bassiana and Isaria farinosa, the microsporidium, Nosema carpocapsae, the Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV), as well as mostly undetermined bacteria. While the CpGV was observed exclusively in larvae and pupae from laboratory colonies or from field experiments with this virus, entomopathogenic fungi were most frequently diagnosed in last instars in autumn and in diapausing larvae and pupae in spring. B. bassiana was identified as the major fungal pathogen, causing larval prevalences of 0.9% to 100% (mean, about 32%). During prognostic long-term studies in larvae and adults of C. pomonella, N. carpocapsae was diagnosed in codling moth populations from various locations in Germany. The mean prevalence generally ranged between 20% and 50%. Experiments revealed that the fecundity and fertility of microsporidia-infected female adults were significantly reduced compared to healthy ones. The results underpin the importance of naturally occurring microbial antagonists and represent a base for further ecological studies on developing new or additional biological and integrated control strategies. PMID:26462428

  1. [Effects of long-term petroleum and heavy metals pollution on the diversity and community structure of Pesudomonas populations in agricultural soils].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Hui-wen; Su, Zhen-cheng; Li, Xin-yu; Zhang, Cheng-gang

    2007-06-01

    By using PCR-DGGE method, this paper studied the diversity and community structure of Pseudomonas populations in long-term petroleum- and heavy metals-contaminated agricultural soils in Northeast China. The results showed that the Shannon diversity index of Pseudomonas was significantly higher in petroleum- than in heavy metals-contaminated soils. The diversity of Pseudomonas in petroleum-contaminated soil was approached to that in clean soil but lower than that in polluted lowland rice soil, suggesting that contaminant type and cultivation mode were the main factors affecting the diversity of Pseudomonas in agricultural soils. The sequences of V6/V7 regions in 16S rRNA gene indicated that P. mendocina, P. stutzeri and P. aeruginosa were the dominant species in both petroleum- and heavy metals-contaminated soils, demonstrating that these three species were enriched under the stress of long-term pollution, which might correlate with the natural degradation of petroleum and the resistance of Pseudomonas to heavy metals. PMID:17763738

  2. Genetic drift vs. natural selection in a long-term small isolated population: major histocompatibility complex class II variation in the Gulf of California endemic porpoise (Phocoena sinus).

    PubMed

    Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Esquer-Garrigos, Yareli; Rojas-Bracho, Lorenzo; Vazquez-Juarez, Ricardo; Castro-Prieto, Aines; Flores-Ramirez, Sergio

    2007-10-01

    Although many studies confirm long-term small isolated populations (e.g. island endemics) commonly sustain low neutral genetic variation as a result of genetic drift, it is less clear how selection on adaptive or detrimental genes interplay with random forces. We investigated sequence variation at two major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) class II loci on a porpoise endemic to the upper Gulf of California, México (Phocoena sinus, or vaquita). Its unique declining population is estimated around 500 individuals. Single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis revealed one putative functional allele fixed at the locus DQB (n = 25). At the DRB locus, we found two presumed functional alleles (n = 29), differing by a single nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution that could increase the stability at the dimer interface of alphabeta-heterodimers on heterozygous individuals. Identical trans-specific DQB1 and DRB1 alleles were identified between P. sinus and its closest relative, the Burmeister's porpoise (Phocoena spinipinnis). Comparison with studies on four island endemic mammals suggests fixation of one allele, due to genetic drift, commonly occurs at the DQA or DQB loci (effectively neutral). Similarly, deleterious alleles of small effect are also effectively neutral and can become fixed; a high frequency of anatomical malformations on vaquita gave empirical support to this prediction. In contrast, retention of low but functional polymorphism at the DRB locus was consistent with higher selection intensity. These observations indicated natural selection could maintain (and likely also purge) some crucial alleles even in the face of strong and prolonged genetic drift and inbreeding, suggesting long-term small populations should display low inbreeding depression. Low levels of Mhc variation warn about a high susceptibility to novel pathogens and diseases in vaquita. PMID:17727623

  3. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

    PubMed

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-09-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  4. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

    PubMed Central

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-01-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  5. Moving house: long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are unaltered in translocated populations of a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus)

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Lindsay E.; Cree, Alison; Towns, David R.; Nelson, Nicola J.

    2015-01-01

    Translocations are an important conservation tool used to restore at-risk species to their historical range. Unavoidable procedures during translocations, such as habitat disturbance, capture, handling, processing, captivity, transport and release to a novel environment, have the potential to be stressful for most species. In this study, we examined acute and chronic stress (through the measurement of the glucocorticoid corticosterone) in a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus). We found that: (i) the acute corticosterone response remains elevated during the initial translocation process but is not amplified by cumulative stressors; and (ii) the long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are similar in translocated and source populations. Taken together, our results show that translocated tuatara are generally resistant to cumulative acute stressors and show no hormonal sign of chronic stress. Translocation efforts in tuatara afford the potential to reduce extinction risk and restore natural ecosystems. PMID:27293699

  6. Inactivation of nucleus incertus impairs passive avoidance learning and long term potentiation of the population spike in the perforant path-dentate gyrus evoked field potentials in rats.

    PubMed

    Nategh, Mohsen; Nikseresht, Sara; Khodagholi, Fariba; Motamedi, Fereshteh

    2016-04-01

    Involvement of brainstem nucleus incertus (NI) in hippocampal theta rhythm suggests that this structure might play a role in hippocampal-dependent learning and memory. In the present study we aimed to address if NI is involved in an avoidance learning task as well as dentate gyrus (DG) short-term and long-term potentiation. Lidocaine was injected into the NI to transiently inactivate the nucleus, and control rats received saline. Role of NI was studied in passive avoidance learning (PAL) in 3 memory phases of acquisition, consolidation and retrieval. Levels of hippocampal phosphorylated p70 were also assessed in rats involved in PAL. Perforant path-DG short-term synaptic plasticity was studied upon NI inactivation before the paired-pulse stimulation, and also before or after tetanic stimulation in freely moving rats. It was found that NI inactivation delayed learning and impaired retention in the PAL task, with decreased levels of phosphorylated p70 in the respective groups. However, short-term plasticity was not affected by NI inactivation. But long term potentiation (LTP) of DG population spike was poorly induced with NI inactivation compared to the saline group, and it had no effect on population excitatory post-synaptic potential. Furthermore, when NI was inactivated after the induction of LTP, there was no difference between the saline and lidocaine groups. These observations suggest that NI has a role in PAL task, and its inactivation does not change the perforant path-DG granule cell synaptic input but decreases the excitability of the DG granule cells. Further studies should elucidate direct and indirect paths through which NI might influence hippocampal activity. PMID:26927304

  7. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    SciTech Connect

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  8. Long-term prediction of major coronary or ischaemic stroke event in a low-incidence Southern European population: model development and evaluation of clinical utility

    PubMed Central

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Gianfagna, Francesco; Chambless, Lloyd E; Giampaoli, Simona; Mancia, Giuseppe; Cesana, Giancarlo; Ferrario, Marco M

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop a long-term prediction model of first major cardiovascular event and to assess its clinical utility in a low-incidence European population. Setting Four independent population-based cohorts enrolled between 1986 and 1993 in Northern Italy. Participants and methods N=5247 35-year-old to 69-year-old men and women free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Absolute 20-year risk of first fatal or non-fatal coronary or ischaemic stroke event (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA) validated) was estimated from gender-specific Cox models. Main outcome measures Model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curve, AUC). ‘High-risk’ subjects were identified based on several threshold values for the 20-year predicted risk. Clinical utility was defined in terms of fraction of missed events (events among those considered at low-risk) and unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio). A net benefit curve was also provided. Results Kaplan-Meier 20-year risk was 16.1% in men (315 events) and 6.1% in women (123 events). Model discrimination (AUC=0.737 in men, 0.801 in women) did not change significantly as compared to 10-year prediction time interval. In men, with respect to risk stratification based on the number of risk factors, a 20% predicted risk cut-off would miss less events (36% vs 50%) and reduce unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio 2.2 vs 3.0); the net benefit was higher over the whole range of threshold values. Similar considerations hold for women. Conclusions Long-term prediction has good discrimination ability and is clinically useful for risk stratification in primary prevention. A clinical utility analysis is recommended to identify the optimal stratification according to different public health goals. PMID:24227872

  9. A disintegrin and metalloprotease 33 polymorphism association with COPD in long-term tobacco smokers of the ethnic Kashmiri population of India

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Sonaullah; Rashid, Amir; Shah, Zaffar A; Jan, Rafi Ahmad; Khan, Umar Hafiz; Bhat, Imtiyaz A; Mantoo, Suhail; Shah, Tajamul H; Koul, Parvaiz A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by an interaction of various environmental influences especially cigarette smoking and genetic determinants. The prevalence of this disease is ever increasing and characterization of the genetic determinants of the disease has been undertaken globally. The ‘A disintegrin and metalloprotease 33’ (ADAM 33) gene is one candidate gene that has been studied. Objective: Our objective was to investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADAM33 gene are associated with COPD in long-term tobacco smokers in the ethnic Kashmiri population of northern India. Materials and Methods: This was a randomized case-control study, which included 78 stable COPD (GOLD stage11-IV) patients, who were compared with 77 age- and sex-matched long-term tobacco smokers (>20 pack years) without any evidence of COPD. Polymorphic analysis for three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), (T1, T2, and Q1) of the ADAM33 gene was done by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) followed by sequencing. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and comparative evaluation was done by parametric/non-parametric tests. Results: The analysis of the T1, T2, and Q1 SNPs, revealed that the frequencies of the T2GG, T1GG, and the Q1AG genotypes were significantly higher in patients with COPD in comparison with the controls (P < 0.001). Similarly, the T1G and T2G allele frequency was higher in the patients than in the controls (p = 0.177 and 0.43, respectively). Conclusion: Three SNPs of the ADAM33 gene were significantly associated with COPD in the Kashmiri population of India. This study establishes the possible role of ADAM33 SNPS in the causation of COPD. Further studies across different geographical areas in the country will unravel the contribution of this gene in the causation of COPD in India. PMID:25983406

  10. Causes of Morbidity in Wild Raptor Populations Admitted at a Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre in Spain from 1995-2007: A Long Term Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Molina-López, Rafael A.; Casal, Jordi; Darwich, Laila

    2011-01-01

    Background Morbidity studies complement the understanding of hazards to raptors by identifying natural or anthropogenic factors. Descriptive epidemiological studies of wildlife have become an important source of information about hazards to wildlife populations. On the other hand, data referenced to the overall wild population could provide a more accurate assessment of the potential impact of the morbidity/mortality causes in populations of wild birds. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study described the morbidity causes of hospitalized wild raptors and their incidence in the wild populations, through a long term retrospective study conducted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre of Catalonia (1995–2007). Importantly, Seasonal Cumulative Incidences (SCI) were calculated considering estimations of the wild population in the region and trend analyses were applied among the different years. A total of 7021 birds were analysed: 7 species of Strigiformes (n = 3521) and 23 of Falconiformes (n = 3500). The main causes of morbidity were trauma (49.5%), mostly in the Falconiformes, and orphaned/young birds (32.2%) mainly in the Strigiformes. During wintering periods, the largest morbidity incidence was observed in Accipiter gentillis due to gunshot wounds and in Tyto alba due to vehicle trauma. Within the breeding season, Falco tinnunculus (orphaned/young category) and Bubo bubo (electrocution and metabolic disorders) represented the most affected species. Cases due to orphaned/young, infectious/parasitic diseases, electrocution and unknown trauma tended to increase among years. By contrast, cases by undetermined cause, vehicle trauma and captivity decreased throughout the study period. Interestingly, gunshot injuries remained constant during the study period. Conclusions/Significance Frequencies of morbidity causes calculated as the proportion of each cause referred to the total number of admitted cases, allowed a qualitative assessment of hazards for

  11. Deep phylogeographic structuring of populations of the trapdoor spider Moggridgea tingle (Migidae) from southwestern Australia: evidence for long-term refugia within refugia.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Steven J B; Harvey, Mark S; Saint, Kathleen M; Main, Barbara Y

    2011-08-01

    Southwestern Australia has been recognized as a biodiversity hot spot of global significance, and it is particularly well known for its considerable diversity of flowering plant species. Questions of interest are how this region became so diverse and whether its fauna show similar diverse patterns of speciation. Here, we carried out a phylogeographic study of trapdoor spiders (Migidae: Moggridgea), a presumed Gondwanan lineage found in wet forest localities across southwestern Australia. Phylogenetic, molecular clock and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial (mtDNA) COI gene and ITS rRNA (internal transcribed spacer) data revealed considerable phylogeographic structuring of Moggridgea populations, with evidence for long-term (>3 million years) isolation of at least nine populations in different geographic locations, including upland regions of the Stirling and Porongurup Ranges. High levels of mtDNA divergence and no evidence of recent mitochondrial gene flow among valley populations of the Stirling Range suggest that individual valleys have acted as refugia for the spiders throughout the Pleistocene. Our findings support the hypothesis that climate change, particularly the aridification of Australia after the late Miocene, and the topography of the landscape, which allowed persistence of moist habitats, have been major drivers of speciation in southwestern Australia. PMID:21689192

  12. Long-term medical, educational, and social prognoses of childhood-onset epilepsy: a population-based study in a rural district of Japan.

    PubMed

    Wakamoto, H; Nagao, H; Hayashi, M; Morimoto, T

    2000-06-01

    The long-term prognosis of childhood-onset epilepsy has rarely been studied in a general population. We examined the long-term medical, educational, and social outcomes in individuals with a history of childhood-onset epilepsy aged 20 years or older in a defined area of Japan. Furthermore, the patients' recognition of epilepsy as well as the parents' concerns about the prognosis of epilepsy were also surveyed. After a mean follow-up period of 18.9 years, we had sufficient data on 148 surviving patients aged 20-38 years (mean, 26. 0 years) and seven dead patients. The follow-up rate was 92.8%. In the overall group, the percentages of those who had had each of the following were as follows: (a) 5-year remission, 62.8%; (b) a relapse of seizures, 17.4%; (c) psychiatric complications, 2.7%; (d) mortality, 4.5%; (e) attendance at regular classes of an ordinary school during compulsory education, 71.6%; (f) entrance to high school, 65.5%; (g) employment, 67.4%; (h) marriage, 23.0%; and (i) acquisition of a driver's license, 54.7%. The educational and social variables of the control population were as follows: (e) 99.1, (f) 97.0, (g) 96.6, (h) 51.9, and (i) 94.8%. In the 99 patients of normal intelligence, the results of the same analysis were as follows: (a) 75.8, (b) 10.7, (c) 0, (d) 0.6, (e) 100, (f) 96.0, (g) 95.2, (h) 33.3, and (i) 77.8%, in contrast to the corresponding variables of the 49 patients with mental retardation, that is, (a) 36.7, (b) 44.4, (c) 8.2, (d) 12.2, (e) 14.3, (f) 6.1, (g) 20.4, (h) 2.0, and (i) 4.1%, respectively. The best predictors of seizure remission included an early response to therapy, a low frequency of seizures or an absence of status epilepticus prior to therapy, and normal mental development. As for the current awareness of epilepsy and its prognosis, nearly 40% of the patients did not know the true name of their illness, and the same proportion of parents were still anxious about the prognosis even if their children had been taken

  13. Community composition and population genetics of insect pathogenic fungi in the genus Metarhizium from soils of a long-term agricultural research system.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Ryan M; Ugine, Todd A; Maul, Jude E; Cavigelli, Michel A; Rehner, Stephen A

    2015-08-01

    Fungi in the genus Metarhizium are insect pathogens able to function in other niches, including soil and plant rhizosphere habitats. In agroecosystems, cropping and tillage practices influence soil fungal communities with unknown effects on the distribution of Metarhizium, whose presence can reduce populations of crop pests. We report results from a selective media survey of Metarhizium in soils sampled from a long-term experimental farming project in the mid-Atlantic region. Field plots under soybean cultivation produced higher numbers of Metarhizium colony-forming units (cfu) than corn or alfalfa. Plots managed organically and via chisel-till harboured higher numbers of Metarhizium cfu than no-till plots. Sequence typing of Metarhizium isolates revealed four species, with M. robertsii and M. brunneum predominating. The M. brunneum population was essentially fixed for a single clone as determined by multilocus microsatellite genotyping. In contrast, M. robertsii was found to contain significant diversity, with the majority of isolates distributed between two principal clades. Evidence for recombination was observed only in the most abundant clade. These findings illuminate multiple levels of Metarhizium diversity that can be used to inform strategies by which soil Metarhizium populations may be manipulated to exert downward pressure on pest insects and promote plant health. PMID:25627647

  14. Isolation in a single step of a highly enriched murine hematopoietic stem cell population with competitive long-term repopulating ability

    SciTech Connect

    Szilvassy, S.J.; Lansdorp, P.M.; Humphries, R.K.; Eaves, A.C.; Eaves, C.J. )

    1989-08-15

    A simple procedure is described for the quantitation and enrichment of murine hematopoietic cells with the capacity for long-term repopulation of lymphoid and myeloid tissues in lethally irradiated mice. To ensure detection of the most primitive marrow cells with this potential, we used a competitive assay in which female recipients were injected with male test cells and 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells with normal short-term repopulating ability, but whose long-term repopulating ability had been reduced by serial transplantation. Primitive hematopoietic cells were purified by flow cytometry and sorting based on their forward and orthogonal light-scattering properties, and Thy-1 and H-2K antigen expression. Enrichment profiles for normal marrow, and marrow of mice injected with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) four days previously, were established for each of these parameters using an in vitro assay for high proliferative potential, pluripotent colony-forming cells. When all four parameters were gated simultaneously, these clonogenic cells were enriched 100-fold. Both day 9 and day 12 CFU-S were copurified; however, the purity (23%) and enrichment (75-fold) of day 12 CFU-S in the sorted population was greater with 5-FU-treated cells. Five hundred of the sorted 5-FU marrow cells consistently repopulated recipient lymphoid and myeloid tissues (greater than 50% male, 1 to 3 months post-transplant) when co-injected with 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells, and approximately 100 were sufficient to achieve the same result in 50% of recipients under the same conditions. This relatively simple purification and assay strategy should facilitate further analysis of the heterogeneity and regulation of stem cells that maintain hematopoiesis in vivo.

  15. Prognosis for long-term survival and renal recovery in critically ill patients with severe acute renal failure: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Bagshaw, Sean M; Laupland, Kevin B; Doig, Christopher J; Mortis, Garth; Fick, Gordon H; Mucenski, Melissa; Godinez-Luna, Tomas; Svenson, Lawrence W; Rosenal, Tom

    2005-01-01

    Introduction Severe acute renal failure (sARF) is associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and use of healthcare resources; however, its precise epidemiology and long-term outcomes have not been well described in a non-specified population. Methods Population-based surveillance was conducted among all adult residents of the Calgary Health Region (population 1 million) admitted to multidisciplinary and cardiovascular surgical intensive care units between May 1 1999 and April 30 2002. Clinical records were reviewed and outcome at 1 year was assessed. Results sARF occurred in 240 patients (11.0 per 100,000 population/year). Rates were highest in males and older patients (≥65 years of age). Risk factors for development of sARF included previous heart disease, stroke, pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, cancer, connective tissue disease, chronic renal dysfunction, and alcoholism. The annual mortality rate was 7.3 per 100,000 population with rates highest in males and those ≥65 years. The 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year case-fatality rates were 51%, 60%, and 64%, respectively. Increased Charlson co-morbidity index, presence of liver disease, higher APACHE II score, septic shock, and need for continuous renal replacement therapy were independently associated with death at 1 year. Renal recovery occurred in 78% (68/87) of survivors at 1 year. Conclusion sARF is common and males, older patients, and those with underlying medical conditions are at greatest risk. Although the majority of patients with sARF will die, most survivors will become independent from renal replacement therapy within a year. PMID:16280066

  16. Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability, New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus, and New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population.

    PubMed

    Yano, Yuichiro; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Kramer, Holly; Sato, Yuji; Konta, Tsuneo; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Narita, Ichiei; Kondo, Masahide; Kimura, Kenjiro; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2015-07-01

    Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SDSBP (per 5 mmHg), SDDBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variabilitySBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variabilityDBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SDBP and average real variabilityBP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up. PMID:25987664

  17. Long-term trends in survival of a declining population: the case of the little owl (Athene noctua) in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Schekkerman, Hans; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Boele, Arjan; van Harxen, Ronald; Fuchs, Piet; Stroeken, Pascal; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2011-06-01

    The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000 ringed owls, allowing detailed estimation of survival rates through multi-state capture-recapture modelling taking dispersal into account. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in age-specific survival rates and linked annual survival estimates to population growth rate in corresponding years, as well as to environmental covariates. The best model for estimating survival assumed time effects on both juvenile and adult survival rates, with average annual survival estimated at 0.258 (SE = 0.047) and 0.753 (SE = 0.019), respectively. Juvenile survival rates decreased with time whereas adult survival rates fluctuated regularly among years, low survival occurring about every 4 years. Years when the population declined were associated with low juvenile survival. More than 60% of the variation in juvenile survival was explained by the increase in road traffic intensity or in average temperature in spring, but these correlations rather reflect a gradual decrease in juvenile survival coinciding with long-term global change than direct causal effects. Surprisingly, vole dynamics did not explain the cyclic dynamics of adult survival rate. Instead, dry and cold years led to low adult survival rates. Low juvenile survival rates, that limit recruitment of first-year breeders, and the regular occurrence of years with poor adult survival, were the most important determinants of the population decline of the little owl. PMID:21153739

  18. Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    PubMed Central

    Douple, Evan B.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M.; Preston, Dale L.; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E.

    2014-01-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200 000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  19. Long-term depression and suicidal ideation outcomes subsequent to emancipation from foster care: pathways to psychiatric risk in the Métis population.

    PubMed

    Kaspar, Violet

    2014-02-28

    Major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal ideation (SI) associated with history of foster care placement (HxFCP), and mediating effects of psychosocial and socioeconomic factors through which placement may confer psychiatric risks in the years subsequent to emancipation were examined in a national sample of 7534 Métis. More than one third of emancipated respondents reported past year MDE, a prevalence rate nearly 50% higher than the rate of MDE among Métis respondents without a history of placement in foster care. The 25% lifetime prevalence rate of SI in the emancipated group was more than twice the rate observed in the non-fostered group. Direct effects of HxFCP on post placement MDE and SI were significant in multivariate logistic regression analyses, even when effects of childhood predispositional risk factors were controlled statistically. Emancipated individuals were unduly affected by psychosocial and socioeconomic disadvantages signifying pathways that linked foster care placement history and psychiatric status. Main mediators of the effects demonstrated using effect decomposition procedures were self-esteem, income, and community adversity. The findings warrant consideration of foster care history in clarifying the complex etiologies of suicidal ideation and major depressive episode in the Métis population and risk factors ensuing in the intervening years as integral to the process linking placement to long-term psychiatric outcomes. PMID:24373554

  20. Prolonged Dye Release from Mesoporous Silica-Based Imaging Probes Facilitates Long-Term Optical Tracking of Cell Populations In Vivo.

    PubMed

    Rosenholm, Jessica M; Gulin-Sarfraz, Tina; Mamaeva, Veronika; Niemi, Rasmus; Özliseli, Ezgi; Desai, Diti; Antfolk, Daniel; von Haartman, Eva; Lindberg, Desiré; Prabhakar, Neeraj; Näreoja, Tuomas; Sahlgren, Cecilia

    2016-03-23

    Nanomedicine is gaining ground worldwide in therapy and diagnostics. Novel nanoscopic imaging probes serve as imaging tools for studying dynamic biological processes in vitro and in vivo. To allow detectability in the physiological environment, the nanostructure-based probes need to be either inherently detectable by biomedical imaging techniques, or serve as carriers for existing imaging agents. In this study, the potential of mesoporous silica nanoparticles carrying commercially available fluorochromes as self-regenerating cell labels for long-term cellular tracking is investigated. The particle surface is organically modified for enhanced cellular uptake, the fluorescence intensity of labeled cells is followed over time both in vitro and in vivo. The particles are not exocytosed and particles which escaped cells due to cell injury or death are degraded and no labeling of nontargeted cell populations are observed. The labeling efficiency is significantly improved as compared to that of quantum dots of similar emission wavelength. Labeled human breast cancer cells are xenotransplanted in nude mice, and the fluorescent cells can be detected in vivo for a period of 1 month. Moreover, ex vivo analysis reveals fluorescently labeled metastatic colonies in lymph node and rib, highlighting the capability of the developed probes for tracking of metastasis. PMID:26807551

  1. Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Douple, Evan B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M; Preston, Dale L; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E

    2011-03-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200,000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor-participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  2. Long-term cardiovascular outcomes and overall survival of early-stage breast cancer patients with early discontinuation of trastuzumab: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Gong, Inna Y; Verma, Sunil; Yan, Andrew T; Ko, Dennis T; Earle, Craig C; Tomlinson, George A; Trudeau, Maureen E; Krahn, Murray D; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Brezden-Masley, Christine B; Gavura, Scott; Peacock, Stuart; Chan, Kelvin K W

    2016-06-01

    We critically examined long-term cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and overall survival (OS) of breast cancer (BC) patients who had cardiotoxicity during adjuvant trastuzumab treatment requiring discontinuation in a population-based sample. This was a retrospective cohort of early-stage BC patients diagnosed before 2010 and treated with trastuzumab in Ontario. Patients were stratified based on trastuzumab doses received: 1-8, 9-15, ≥16 (therapy completion). Time-dependent multivariable Cox models were used to analyze primary endpoint OS, and the following composite endpoints: hospitalization/emergency room visit for heart failure (HF) or death; non-HF CV (myocardial infarction, stroke) or death; and clinically significant relapse (palliative systemic therapy initiation >90 days after last trastuzumab dose) or death. Of the 3134 women, 6, 10, and 85 % received 1-8, 9-15, and ≥16 doses, respectively. Over 5-year median follow-up, early trastuzumab discontinuation was associated with more HF/death [1-8 doses hazard ratio (HR) 4.0, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.7-6.0; 9-15 doses HR 2.97, 95 % CI 2.1-4.3], non-HF/death (1-8 doses HR 4.3, 95 % CI 3.0-6.1; 9-15 doses HR 3.1, 95 % CI 2.2-4.4), clinically significant relapse/death (1-8 doses HR 3.1, 95 % CI 2.2-4.4; 9-15 doses HR 2.4, 95 % CI 1.8-3.3), and importantly lower OS (77, 80, 93 %; P < 0.001). Early discontinuation (1-8 doses HR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.5-3.8; 9-15 doses HR 2.9, 95 % CI 2.0-4.1) and clinically significant relapse (HR 34.0, 95 % CI 24.9-46.6) were both independent predictors of mortality. Of note, early discontinuation remained a critical independent predictor of OS even after adjusting for incident HF. Early trastuzumab discontinuation is a powerful independent predictor of cardiac events and clinically significant relapse, and both may contribute to poor survival. Both adequate cancer control and optimal CV management are required to improve long-term outcomes. PMID:27271767

  3. Long-Term Impact of Preterm Birth on Exercise Capacity in Healthy Young Men: A National Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Svedenkrans, Jenny; Henckel, Ewa; Kowalski, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Background Increasing numbers of survivors of preterm birth are growing into adulthood today. Long-term health-effects of prematurity are still poorly understood, but include increased risk for diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular diseases in adult life. To test if reduced physical fitness may be a link in the causal chain of preterm birth and diseases in later life, the association of preterm birth and adult exercise capacity was investigated. The hypothesis was that preterm birth contributes independently of other risk factors to lower physical fitness in adulthood. Methods and Findings Population-based national cohort study of all males conscripting for military service in 1993–2001 and born in Sweden 1973–1983, n = 218,820. Data were retrieved from the Swedish Conscript Register, the Medical Birth Register and the Population and Housing Census 1990. Primary outcome was the results from maximal exercise test (Wmax in Watt) performed at conscription. Association to perinatal and socioeconomic risk factors, other co-variates and confounders were analysed. General linear modelling showed that preterm birth predicted low Wmax in a dose-response related pattern, with 25 Watt reduction in Wmax for the lowest gestational ages, those born ≤27 weeks. Low birth weight for gestational age also independently predicted low Wmax compared to normal and high birth weight (32 Watt reduction for those with a birth weight Standard Deviation Score <2). Low parental education was significantly associated with reduced Wmax (range 17 Watt), as well as both low and high current BMI, with severe obesity resulting in a 16 Watt deficit compared to Wmax top performance. Conclusion Being born preterm as well as being born small for gestational age predicts low exercise capacity in otherwise healthy young men. The effect size of being born preterm equal or exceed that of other known risk factors for unfitness in adults, such as low parental education and overweight. PMID:24324639

  4. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

    1999-01-01

    Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

  5. Stochastic switching induced adaptation in a starved Escherichia coli population.

    PubMed

    Shimizu, Yoshihiro; Tsuru, Saburo; Ito, Yoichiro; Ying, Bei-Wen; Yomo, Tetsuya

    2011-01-01

    Population adaptation can be determined by stochastic switching in living cells. To examine how stochastic switching contributes to the fate decision for a population under severe stress, we constructed an Escherichia coli strain crucially dependent on the expression of a rewired gene. The gene essential for tryptophan biosynthesis, trpC, was removed from the native regulatory unit, the Trp operon, and placed under the extraneous control of the lactose utilisation network. Bistability of the network provided the cells two discrete phenotypes: the induced and suppressed level of trpC. The two phenotypes permitted the cells to grow or not, respectively, under conditions of tryptophan depletion. We found that stochastic switching between the two states allowed the initially suppressed cells to form a new population with induced trpC in response to tryptophan starvation. However, the frequency of the transition from suppressed to induced state dropped off dramatically in the starved population, in comparison to that in the nourished population. This reduced switching rate was compensated by increasing the initial population size, which probably provided the cell population more chances to wait for the rarely appearing fit cells from the unfit cells. Taken together, adaptation of a starved bacterial population because of stochasticity in the gene rewired from the ancient regulon was experimentally confirmed, and the nutritional status and the population size played a great role in stochastic adaptation. PMID:21931628

  6. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics. PMID:25963669

  7. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

    PubMed Central

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  8. Long-term healthcare use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER)

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Simon; Asaria, Miqdad; Manca, Andrea; Palmer, Stephen; Gale, Chris P.; Shah, Anoop Dinesh; Abrams, Keith R.; Crowther, Michael; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Sculpher, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Aims To examine long-term healthcare utilization and costs of patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD). Methods and results Linked cohort study of 94 966 patients with SCAD in England, 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2010, identified from primary care, secondary care, disease, and death registries. Resource use and costs, and cost predictors by time and 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile were estimated using generalized linear models. Coronary heart disease hospitalizations were 20.5% in the first year and 66% in the year following a non-fatal (myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke) event. Mean healthcare costs were £3133 per patient in the first year and £10 377 in the year following a non-fatal event. First-year predictors of cost included sex (mean cost £549 lower in females), SCAD diagnosis (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction cost £656 more than stable angina), and co-morbidities (heart failure cost £657 more per patient). Compared with lower risk patients (5-year CVD risk 3.5%), those of higher risk (5-year CVD risk 44.2%) had higher 5-year costs (£23 393 vs. £9335) and lower lifetime costs (£43 020 vs. £116 888). Conclusion Patients with SCAD incur substantial healthcare utilization and costs, which varies and may be predicted by 5-year CVD risk profile. Higher risk patients have higher initial but lower lifetime costs than lower risk patients as a result of shorter life expectancy. Improved cardiovascular survivorship among an ageing CVD population is likely to require stratified care in anticipation of the burgeoning demand. PMID:27042338

  9. A Survey of Very-Long-Term Outcomes after Traumatic Brain Injury among Members of a Population-Based Incident Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Moessner, Anne M.; Mandrekar, Jay; Diehl, Nancy N.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Malec, James F.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract To assess quality of life and barriers to participation in vocational and community life for persons with traumatic brain injury (TBI) over the very-long term, a population-based cohort was identified in Olmsted County, Minnesota; 1623 individuals were identified as having experienced a confirmed TBI while a resident of Olmsted County, Minnesota, during the period from 1935–2000. A survey was sent to eligible individuals that included elements of standardized instruments addressing health status and disability, and questions that assessed issues important to successful social reintegration after TBI. Of 1623 eligible participants sent surveys, 605 responded (37% response rate). Thirty-nine percent of respondents were female and 79% had mild injuries. Mean age at injury was 30.8 years, and mean years since injury was 28.8. Overall, respondents reported living in the community; the majority were married and had achieved education beyond high school. Problems with memory, thinking, and physical and emotional health were most often reported. Respondents reported low levels of depression and anxiety, and high levels of satisfaction with life. Seventy-three percent of respondents reported no problems that they attributed to their TBI. Increasing injury severity was associated with a significant risk of reporting injury-related problems at survey completion. Respondents with a longer time since injury were less likely to report any TBI-related problems. These results indicate that self-reported outcomes and adaptation to impairment-related limitations improve as the time since injury increases. These findings highlight the importance of providing coordinated medical rehabilitation and community-based support services to promote positive outcomes over the life span after TBI. PMID:21121813

  10. Long-Term Financial Burden of Breast Cancer: Experiences of a Diverse Cohort of Survivors Identified Through Population-Based Registries

    PubMed Central

    Jagsi, Reshma; Pottow, John A.E.; Griffith, Kent A.; Bradley, Cathy; Hamilton, Ann S.; Graff, John; Katz, Steven J.; Hawley, Sarah T.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the financial experiences of a racially and ethnically diverse cohort of long-term breast cancer survivors (17% African American, 40% Latina) identified through population-based registries. Methods Longitudinal study of women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer in 2005 to 2007 and reported to the SEER registries of metropolitan Los Angeles and Detroit. We surveyed 3,133 women approximately 9 months after diagnosis and 4 years later. Multivariable models evaluated correlates of self-reported decline in financial status attributed to breast cancer and of experiencing at least one type of privation (economically motivated treatment nonadherence and broader hardships related to medical expenses). Results Among 1,502 patients responding to both surveys, median out-of-pocket expenses were ≤ $2,000; 17% of respondents reported spending > $5,000; 12% reported having medical debt 4 years postdiagnosis. Debt varied significantly by race: 9% of whites, 15% of blacks, 17% of English-speaking Latinas, and 10% of Spanish-speaking Latinas reported debt (P = .03). Overall, 25% of women experienced financial decline at least partly attributed to breast cancer; Spanish-speaking Latinas had significantly increased odds of this decline relative to whites (odds ratio [OR], 2.76; P = .006). At least one privation was experienced by 18% of the sample; blacks (OR, 2.6; P < .001) and English-speaking Latinas (OR, 2.2; P = .02) were significantly more likely to have experienced privation than whites. Conclusion Racial and ethnic minority patients appear most vulnerable to privations and financial decline attributable to breast cancer, even after adjustment for income, education, and employment. These findings should motivate efforts to control costs and ensure communication between patients and providers regarding financial distress, particularly for vulnerable subgroups. PMID:24663041

  11. Long-term testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G. A., Jr.

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000-10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  12. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  13. Important factors governing exposure of the population and countermeasure application in rural settlements of the Russian Federation in the long-term after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Fesenko, S; Jacob, P; Alexakhin, R; Sanzharova, N I; Panov, A; Fesenko, G; Cecille, L

    2001-01-01

    Rural settlements located in areas of the Russian Federation contaminated after the Chernobyl accident and exceeding an annual dose of 1 mSv a-1 have been classified according to 137Cs contamination density, internal dose and the neighbourhood of forests. It has been shown that, with the exception of the most contaminated areas, the internal doses decreased in accordance with a decline in 137Cs availability for plant root uptake. An inverse tendency was observed in areas with 137Cs contamination above 555 kBq m-2 which can be explained by a reduction or even termination of countermeasure application and by an increasing consumption of forest products in areas where restrictive countermeasures are still implemented. Twenty-seven settlements have been studied to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures applied previously and to identify the most important factors governing the radiation exposure to the population and its change with time. It has been shown that the effectiveness of countermeasures which resulted in a decrease of up to 40% of doses has a tendency to decline in the long term. The need for continuation of remediation in rural settlements was evaluated both for selected settlements and extrapolated to the whole contaminated area and it has been shown that the application of countermeasures will be of importance at least up to the year 2045. Rather high effectiveness in terms of internal dose reduction (factor of 2-2.5) of radical improvement (disking, ploughing and reseeding) and administration of Cs binders to animals (Ferrocyn) was demonstrated for the selected settlements. It could be demonstrated that for forest-remote settlements there is a linear dependence between internal dose normalised to the density of contamination and the proportion of peat soils around settlements. For near-forest settlements, this dependence was less pronounced which can be explained by the high contribution of forest food products to the internal dose. Milk is still

  14. NATIONAL LONG TERM CARE SURVEY (NLTCS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) are surveys of the entire aged population with a particular emphasis on the functionally impaired. Longitudinal study of the health and well-being of elderly Americans. Information about the population of chronically disabled elderly person...

  15. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images.

  16. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    SciTech Connect

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time.

  17. Long-term environmental stewardship.

    SciTech Connect

    Nagy, Michael David

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this Supplemental Information Source Document is to effectively describe Long-Term Environmental Stewardship (LTES) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). More specifically, this document describes the LTES and Long-Term Stewardship (LTS) Programs, distinguishes between the LTES and LTS Programs, and summarizes the current status of the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project.

  18. Presynaptic long-term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ying; Calakos, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is a major cellular substrate for learning, memory, and behavioral adaptation. Although early examples of long-term synaptic plasticity described a mechanism by which postsynaptic signal transduction was potentiated, it is now apparent that there is a vast array of mechanisms for long-term synaptic plasticity that involve modifications to either or both the presynaptic terminal and postsynaptic site. In this article, we discuss current and evolving approaches to identify presynaptic mechanisms as well as discuss their limitations. We next provide examples of the diverse circuits in which presynaptic forms of long-term synaptic plasticity have been described and discuss the potential contribution this form of plasticity might add to circuit function. Finally, we examine the present evidence for the molecular pathways and cellular events underlying presynaptic long-term synaptic plasticity. PMID:24146648

  19. Herbivore population regulation and resource heterogeneity in a stochastic environment.

    PubMed

    Hempson, G P; Illius, A W; Hendricks, H H; Bond, W J; Vetter, S

    2015-08-01

    Large-mammal herbivore populations are subject to the interaction of internal density-dependent processes and external environmental stochasticity. We disentangle these processes by linking consumer population dynamics, in a highly stochastic environment, to the availability of their key forage resource via effects on body condition and subsequent fecundity and mortality rates. Body condition and demographic rate data were obtained by monitoring 500 tagged female goats in the Richtersveld National Park, South Africa, over a three-year period. Identifying the key resource and pathway to density dependence for a population allows environmental stochasticity to be partitioned into that which has strong feedbacks to population stability, and that which does not. Our data reveal a density- dependent seasonal decline in goat body condition in response to concomitant density-dependent depletion of the dry-season forage resource. The loss in body condition reduced density-dependent pregnancy rates, litter sizes, and pre-weaning survival. Survival was lowest following the most severe dry season and for juveniles. Adult survival in the late-dry season depended on body condition in the mid-dry season. Population growth was determined by the length of the dry season and the population size in the previous year. The RNP goat population is thereby dynamically coupled primarily to its dry-season forage resource. Extreme environmental variability thus does not decouple consumer resource dynamics, in contrast to the views of nonequilibrium protagonists. PMID:26405742

  20. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations. PMID:26172687

  1. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  2. Long-Term Stability of Social Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo

    2008-01-01

    The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…

  3. A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Sanders-Reed, C.A.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

  4. A Core Stochastic Population Projection Model for Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

  5. Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines

    PubMed Central

    Potts, Nicholas L.S.; Krishnan, K. Ranga R.

    1992-01-01

    Problems associated with physical dependence and abuse of benzodiazepines by a small percentage of patients have reduced their popularity from the most commonly prescribed psychoactive drug in the 1970s to being prescribed for mainly short periods. Patients who benefit from long-term benzodiazepine use are nearly ignored by the medical community as a whole. This article details what patient population can improve from long-term benzodiazepine therapy, the risks and benefits of treatment, and how to select appropriate candidates. PMID:21229127

  6. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  7. Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

    PubMed Central

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

    2006-01-01

    Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

  8. Long term complications of diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long term complications of diabetes To use the sharing ... sores and infections. If it goes on too long, your toes, foot, or leg may need to ...

  9. Abdominal Pain, Long-Term

    MedlinePlus

    MENU Return to Web version Abdominal Pain, Long-term See complete list of charts. Ongoing or recurrent abdominal pain, also called chronic pain, may be difficult to diagnose, causing frustration for ...

  10. Long-term Outcomes after Severe Shock

    PubMed Central

    Pratt, Cristina M.; Hirshberg, Eliotte L.; Jones, Jason P.; Kuttler, Kathryn G.; Lanspa, Michael J.; Wilson, Emily L.; Hopkins, Ramona O.; Brown, Samuel M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Methods Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 mcg/kg/min of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured three-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. Results The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years: 82% (62/76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of five years after hospital admission. The patients’ Physical Functioning scores were below US population norms (p<0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full time. Conclusions Early survivors of severe shock had a high three-year survival rate. Patients’ long term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill ICU survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term

  11. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  12. Stochastic Hopf and torus bifurcations in population biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stollenwerk, Nico; Sommer, Pablo Fuentes; Mateus, Luis; Kooi, Bob; Aguiar, Maíra

    2016-06-01

    In population biological systems often bifurcation sequences via period doubling are observed, especially in simplest models of epidemiology like the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with seasonal forcing in the infection rate. But other routes to complex behaviour can as easily be found, for example in multi-strain models of SIR-type without forcing, here after a Hopf bifurcation a torus bifurcation leads into chaos. However, these models are already relatively high dimensional. One of the simplest models in population biology, now in ecology, is the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, displaying a Hopf bifurcation and with forcing also a torus bifurcation leading to more complex behaviour subsequently. Here we investigate an only slightly extended version which again can be interpreted as a stochastic process of a population dynamical model. Such stochastic models give insight into what can be observed ultimately in empirical data of the systems under investigation.

  13. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-01

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  14. An examination of population exposure to traffic related air pollution: Comparing spatially and temporally resolved estimates against long-term average exposures at the home location.

    PubMed

    Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2016-05-01

    Air pollution in metropolitan areas is mainly caused by traffic emissions. This study presents the development of a model chain consisting of a transportation model, an emissions model, and atmospheric dispersion model, applied to dynamically evaluate individuals' exposure to air pollution by intersecting daily trajectories of individuals and hourly spatial variations of air pollution across the study domain. This dynamic approach is implemented in Montreal, Canada to highlight the advantages of the method for exposure analysis. The results for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker of traffic related air pollution, reveal significant differences when relying on spatially and temporally resolved concentrations combined with individuals' daily trajectories compared to a long-term average NO2 concentration at the home location. We observe that NO2 exposures based on trips and activity locations visited throughout the day were often more elevated than daily NO2 concentrations at the home location. The percentage of all individuals with a lower 24-hour daily average at home compared to their 24-hour mobility exposure is 89.6%, of which 31% of individuals increase their exposure by more than 10% by leaving the home. On average, individuals increased their exposure by 23-44% while commuting and conducting activities out of home (compared to the daily concentration at home), regardless of air quality at their home location. We conclude that our proposed dynamic modelling approach significantly improves the results of traditional methods that rely on a long-term average concentration at the home location and we shed light on the importance of using individual daily trajectories to understand exposure. PMID:26970897

  15. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  16. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  17. Long-term epidemiological studies of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: study populations, dosimetry and summary of health effects.

    PubMed

    Okubo, Toshiteru

    2012-10-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation succeeded 28 years' worth of activities of the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission on long-term epidemiological studies in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It has three major cohorts of atomic bomb survivors, i.e. the Life Span Study (LSS) of 120,000 people, the In Utero Cohort of 3600 and the Second Generation Study (F(1)) of 77,000. The LSS and F(1) studies include a periodic health examination for each sub-cohort, i.e. the Adult Health Study and the F(1) Clinical Study, respectively. An extensive individual dose estimation was conducted and the system was published as the Dosimetry System established in 2002 (DS02). As results of these studies, increases of cancers in relation to dose were clearly shown. Increases of other mortality causes were also observed, including heart and respiratory diseases. There has been no evidence of genetic effects in the survivors' children, including cancer and other multi-factorial diseases. The increase in the expected mortality number in the next 10 y would allow the analyses of further details of the observed effects related to atomic bomb exposures. PMID:22908354

  18. Population Uncertainty in Model Ecosystem: Analysis by Stochastic Differential Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morita, Satoru; Tainaka, Kei-ichi; Nagata, Hiroyasu; Yoshimura, Jin

    2008-09-01

    Perturbation experiments are carried out by the numerical simulations of a contact process and its mean-field version. Here, the mortality rate increases or decreases suddenly. It is known that fluctuation enhancement (FE) occurs after perturbation, where FE indicates population uncertainty. In the present paper, we develop a new theory of stochastic differential equation. The agreement between the theory and the mean-field simulation is almost perfect. This theory enables us to find a much stronger FE than that reported previously. We discuss the population uncertainty in the recovering process of endangered species.

  19. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2011-07-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  20. The Long-Term Effects of Organophosphates Poisoning as a Risk Factor of CVDs: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Cheng-Li; Chang, Shih-Yu; Sung, Fung-Chang; Tai, Sally C. W.

    2015-01-01

    Background Organophosphorus pesticides are widely used throughout the world. Because of their ease of availability, organophosphorus compounds are commonly used for self-poisoning in developing countries. The acute effects of exposure to organophosphorus pesticides are well known, but the chronic effects are unclear. Recent studies suggest that abnormalities of the central and peripheral nervous systems persisted for up to 5 years after acute poisoning due to a single large dose of organophosphates (OPs). However, the long-term effects on cardiovascular diseases are poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings An OPs-exposed cohort (N = 7,561) and an age- and gender-matched control cohort (N = 30,244), both identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database, were compared. We utilized the multivariable Cox proportional model to estimate the risks of developing arrhythmia, coronary artery disease (CAD) and congestive heart failure (CHF). The patients with acute poisoning from OPs had higher incidence rates of arrhythmia (5.89 vs. 3.61 per 1,000 person-years), CAD (9.10 vs. 6.88 per 1,000 person-years), and CHF (3.89 vs. 2.98 per 1,000 person-years) compared with that of the non-OPs poisoning cohort, with a crude subhazard ratio (SHR) of 1.40, 1.13, and 1.12, respectively. Additionally, a significantly higher risk of arrhythmia was observed in the OPs poisoning cohort (adjusted SHR = 1.25) compared with the non-OPs poisoning cohort, particularly in male patients (adjusted SHR = 1.33) and those under 49 years of age (adjusted SHR = 3.16). After accounting for the competing risks of death, there was a higher risk of arrhythmia and CAD during a three year follow-up period (adjusted SHR = 1.50 for arrhythmia; adjusted SHR = 1.10 for CAD). We also found an adjusted SHR of 1.36 associated with developing CHF after 6 years of follow-up for OPs poisoning cohort. Conclusions Acute OPs poisoning may continuously impact human health through mechanisms that are

  1. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach

    PubMed Central

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  2. Long-Term Patterns in the Population Dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and Cyanobacteria in a Shallow Reservoir: A Self-Organising Map (SOM) Approach.

    PubMed

    Wojtal-Frankiewicz, Adrianna; Kruk, Andrzej; Frankiewicz, Piotr; Oleksińska, Zuzanna; Izydorczyk, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    The recognition of long-term patterns in the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia longispina, Leptodora kindtii and cyanobacteria is dependent upon their interactions, the water temperature and the hydrological conditions, which were all investigated between 1999 and 2008 in the lowland Sulejow Reservoir. The biomass of cyanobacteria, densities of D. longispina and L. kindtii, concentration of chlorophyll a and water temperature were assessed weekly from April to October at three sampling stations along the longitudinal reservoir axis. The retention time was calculated using data on the actual water inflow and reservoir volume. A self-organising map (SOM) was used due to high interannual variability in the studied parameters and their often non-linear relationships. Classification of the SOM output neurons into three clusters that grouped the sampling terms with similar biotic states allowed identification of the crucial abiotic factors responsible for the seasonal sequence of events: cluster CL-ExSp (extreme/spring) corresponded to hydrologically unstable cold periods (mostly spring) with extreme values and highly variable abiotic factors, which made abiotic control of the biota dominant; cluster CL-StSm (stable/summer) was associated with ordinary late spring and summer and was characterised by stable non-extreme abiotic conditions, which made biotic interactions more important; and the cluster CL-ExSm (extreme/summer), was associated with late spring/summer and characterised by thermal or hydrological extremes, which weakened the role of biotic factors. The significance of the differences between the SOM sub-clusters was verified by Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. The importance of the temperature and hydrological regimes as the key plankton-regulating factors in the dam reservoir, as shown by the SOM, was confirmed by the results of canonical correlation analyses (CCA) of each cluster. The demonstrated significance of hydrology in seasonal plankton dynamics

  3. Landscape resistnace to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects of human disturbance on a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Agricultural development over the past 60 years has resulted in considerable habitat fragmentation in the Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) region in sou...

  4. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  5. Long-term data archiving

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, David Steven

    2009-01-01

    Long term data archiving has much value for chemists, not only to retain access to research and product development records, but also to enable new developments and new discoveries. There are some recent regulatory requirements (e.g., FDA 21 CFR Part 11), but good science and good business both benefit regardless. A particular example of the benefits of and need for long term data archiving is the management of data from spectroscopic laboratory instruments. The sheer amount of spectroscopic data is increasing at a scary rate, and the pressures to archive come from the expense to create the data (or recreate it if it is lost) as well as its high information content. The goal of long-term data archiving is to save and organize instrument data files as well as any needed meta data (such as sample ID, LIMS information, operator, date, time, instrument conditions, sample type, excitation details, environmental parameters, etc.). This editorial explores the issues involved in long-term data archiving using the example of Raman spectral databases. There are at present several such databases, including common data format libraries and proprietary libraries. However, such databases and libraries should ultimately satisfy stringent criteria for long term data archiving, including readability for long times into the future, robustness to changes in computer hardware and operating systems, and use of public domain data formats. The latter criterion implies the data format should be platform independent and the tools to create the data format should be easily and publicly obtainable or developable. Several examples of attempts at spectral libraries exist, such as the ASTM ANDI format, and the JCAMP-DX format. On the other hand, proprietary library spectra can be exchanged and manipulated using proprietary tools. As the above examples have deficiencies according to the three long term data archiving criteria, Extensible Markup Language (XML; a product of the World Wide Web

  6. Long-Term Health-Related Quality of Life in German Patients with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis in Comparison to German General Population

    PubMed Central

    Barth, Swaantje; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Schlichtiger, Jenny; Molz, Johannes; Bisdorff, Betty; Michels, Hartmut; Hügle, Boris; Radon, Katja

    2016-01-01

    Objective Aims of the study were to investigate health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adult patients with former diagnosis of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA), to compare their HRQOL with the general population and to identify factors related to a poor outcome. Methods In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was performed by mailing a questionnaire to a large cohort of former and current patients of the German Centre for Rheumatology in Children and Adolescents. Only adult patients (≥18 years) with a diagnosis compatible with JIA were included (n = 2592; response 66%). The questionnaire included information about HRQOL (EQ5D), disease-related questions and socio-demographics. Prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of problems with mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain and anxiety/depression were standardized to the German general population. Factors associated with low HRQOL in JIA patients were identified using logistic regression models. Results Sixty-two percent of the study population was female; age range was 18–73 years. In all dimensions, JIA patients reported statistically significantly more problems than the general population with largest differences in the pain dimension (JIA patients 56%; 95%CI 55–58%; general population 28%; 26–29%) and the anxiety/depression dimension (28%; 27–29% vs. 4%; 4–5%). Lower HRQOL in JIA patients was associated with female sex, older age, lower level of education, still being under rheumatic treatment and disability. Conclusions HRQOL in adult JIA patients is considerably lower than in the general population. As this cohort includes historic patients the new therapeutic schemes available today are expected to improve HRQOL in future. PMID:27115139

  7. The zebrafish tailbud contains two independent populations of midline progenitor cells that maintain long-term germ layer plasticity and differentiate in response to local signaling cues.

    PubMed

    Row, Richard H; Tsotras, Steve R; Goto, Hana; Martin, Benjamin L

    2016-01-15

    Vertebrate body axis formation depends on a population of bipotential neuromesodermal cells along the posterior wall of the tailbud that make a germ layer decision after gastrulation to form spinal cord and mesoderm. Despite exhibiting germ layer plasticity, these cells never give rise to midline tissues of the notochord, floor plate and dorsal endoderm, raising the question of whether midline tissues also arise from basal posterior progenitors after gastrulation. We show in zebrafish that local posterior signals specify germ layer fate in two basal tailbud midline progenitor populations. Wnt signaling induces notochord within a population of notochord/floor plate bipotential cells through negative transcriptional regulation of sox2. Notch signaling, required for hypochord induction during gastrulation, continues to act in the tailbud to specify hypochord from a notochord/hypochord bipotential cell population. Our results lend strong support to a continuous allocation model of midline tissue formation in zebrafish, and provide an embryological basis for zebrafish and mouse bifurcated notochord phenotypes as well as the rare human congenital split notochord syndrome. We demonstrate developmental equivalency between the tailbud progenitor cell populations. Midline progenitors can be transfated from notochord to somite fate after gastrulation by ectopic expression of msgn1, a master regulator of paraxial mesoderm fate, or if transplanted into the bipotential progenitors that normally give rise to somites. Our results indicate that the entire non-epidermal posterior body is derived from discrete, basal tailbud cell populations. These cells remain receptive to extracellular cues after gastrulation and continue to make basic germ layer decisions. PMID:26674311

  8. Efficacy of a Tailored Tobacco Control Program on Long-Term Use in a Population of U.S. Military Troops

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klesges, Robert C.; DeBon, Margaret; Vander Weg, Mark W.; Haddock, C. Keith; Lando, Harry A.; Relyea, George E.; Peterson, Alan L.; Talcott, G. Wayne

    2006-01-01

    The authors evaluated the effect of a brief tailored smoking control intervention delivered during basic military training on tobacco use in a population of military personnel (N = 33,215). Participants were randomized to either a tobacco use intervention (smoking cessation, smokeless tobacco use cessation, or prevention depending on tobacco…

  9. Long term mortality in burned children

    PubMed Central

    Stamboulian, Daniel; Lede, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Studies about risk factors for mortality in burn children are scarce and are even less in the follow up of this population across time. Usually, after complete event attendance, children are not follow-up as risk patients, burn injury affects all facets of life. Integration of professionals from different disciplines has enabled burn centers to develop collaborative methods of assessing the quality of care delivered to patients with burns. In this editorial we comment the paper of Duke et al. The authors highlight the importance of maintaining a long-term monitoring of children who suffered burns. The importance of this original study is to promote the reconsideration of clinical guides of long-term follow-up of burn patients. PMID:26835375

  10. Long term mortality in burned children.

    PubMed

    Rosanova, María Teresa; Stamboulian, Daniel; Lede, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Studies about risk factors for mortality in burn children are scarce and are even less in the follow up of this population across time. Usually, after complete event attendance, children are not follow-up as risk patients, burn injury affects all facets of life. Integration of professionals from different disciplines has enabled burn centers to develop collaborative methods of assessing the quality of care delivered to patients with burns. In this editorial we comment the paper of Duke et al. The authors highlight the importance of maintaining a long-term monitoring of children who suffered burns. The importance of this original study is to promote the reconsideration of clinical guides of long-term follow-up of burn patients. PMID:26835375

  11. How domain growth is implemented determines the long-term behavior of a cell population through its effect on spatial correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, Robert J. H.; Baker, R. E.; Yates, C. A.

    2016-07-01

    Domain growth plays an important role in many biological systems, and so the inclusion of domain growth in models of these biological systems is important to understanding how these systems function. In this work we present methods to include the effects of domain growth on the evolution of spatial correlations in a continuum approximation of a lattice-based model of cell motility and proliferation. We show that, depending on the way in which domain growth is implemented, different steady-state densities are predicted for an agent population. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the way in which domain growth is implemented can result in the evolution of the agent density depending on the size of the domain. Continuum approximations that ignore spatial correlations cannot capture these behaviors, while those that account for spatial correlations do. These results will be of interest to researchers in developmental biology, as they suggest that the nature of domain growth can determine the characteristics of cell populations.

  12. Impact of External Beam Adjuvant Radiotherapy on Health-Related Quality of Life for Long-Term Survivors of Endometrial Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Lybeert, Marnix L.M.; Berg, Hetty A. van den; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.

    2007-09-01

    Purpose: To compare the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among 5-10-year survivors of Stage I-II endometrial (adeno-)carcinoma (EC) treated with surgery alone or surgery with external beam adjuvant radiotherapy (EBRT) and an age-matched norm population. Methods and Materials: A population-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted by the Eindhoven Cancer Registry. All patients were included who had been diagnosed with EC between 1994 and 1998 (n = 462). Information from the questionnaires returned was linked to data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Results: Responses were received from 75% of the patients. The analyses were restricted to women with Stage I-II disease at diagnosis, treated with either surgery alone or surgery with adjuvant EBRT, and without recurrent disease or new primary malignancies (n = 264). The patients who had received adjuvant EBRT (n = 80) had had a significantly higher tumor stage and grade at diagnosis (p < 0.0001) and a longer mean time since diagnosis (p = 0.04). Age, number of comorbid diseases, current marital status, nulliparity, education, and occupation were similar for both treatment groups. On multivariate analyses, adjuvant EBRT was independently and negatively associated with the vitality and physical and social well-being scale scores. The HRQOL scores of both treatment groups, however, were similar to those of an age-matched norm population. Conclusion: In general, the HRQOL of EC survivors is good. EC survivors treated with surgery alone had a better HRQOL than women treated with surgery and adjuvant EBRT, although for both groups, the HRQOL was in the range of the norm population.

  13. Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

    PubMed

    Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

    2005-12-01

    Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast. PMID:16026805

  14. Long-term monitoring of reef corals at the Flower Garden Banks (northwest Gulf of Mexico): Reef coral population changes and historical incorporation of barium in Montastrea annularis

    SciTech Connect

    Deslarzes, K.J.P.

    1992-01-01

    Reef coral populations were monitored from 1988 to 1991 at the Flower Garden Banks located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The status of reef coral populations, and natural or man-made factors potentially affecting their well-being were determined. Man-made chronic disturbances are degrading coral reef resources on a global scale. Yet, the Flower Garden coral reefs seem to have been sheltered from the effects of regional stresses generated by population growth and increased industrial activity. Since 1974, reef coral population levels have remained unchanged in the Montastrea-Diploria Zones at the Flower Garden Banks. Live coral cover ranges between 46 and 46.5%. Montastrea annularis and Diploria strigosa comprise 80% of the coral cover on either bank. The remainder of the cover is mostly shared by eight other taxa. Coral taxa appear to be more homogeneously distributed on the West Bank. The relatively greater number of Agaricia spp., Madracis decastis, and P. astreoides colonies on the East Bank may be the source of a decreased evenness. The health of reef corals was assessed using repetitive and non-repetitive photographic methods, and accretionary growth measurements of M. annularis. Reef corals have undergone small scale changes at the Flower Gardens probably reflecting natural disturbance, predation, disease, and inter-specific competition. White mat disease (ridge disease) is shown to generate more tissue loss than any of the three bleaching events that took place at the Flower Gardens (1989, 1990, and 1991). Advance to retreat linear ratios of encrusting growth revealed a net tissue gain on the East Bank and a net tissue loss on the West Bank. Growth rates of M. annularis were highly variable. The annual barium content from 1910 in 1989 in a M. annularis colony from the West Flower Garden did not reveal trends associated with the extensive oil and gas exploration in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

  15. The Effects of Both Recent and Long-Term Selection and Genetic Drift Are Readily Evident in North American Barley Breeding Populations.

    PubMed

    Poets, Ana M; Mohammadi, Mohsen; Seth, Kiran; Wang, Hongyun; Kono, Thomas J Y; Fang, Zhou; Muehlbauer, Gary J; Smith, Kevin P; Morrell, Peter L

    2015-01-01

    Barley was introduced to North America ∼400 yr ago but adaptation to modern production environments is more recent. Comparisons of allele frequencies among growth habits and spike (inflorescence) types in North America indicate that significant genetic differentiation has accumulated in a relatively short evolutionary time span. Allele frequency differentiation is greatest among barley with two-row vs. six-row spikes, followed by spring vs. winter growth habit. Large changes in allele frequency among breeding programs suggest a major contribution of genetic drift and linked selection on genetic variation. Despite this, comparisons of 3613 modern North American cultivated barley breeding lines that differ for spike-type and growth habit permit the discovery of 142 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) outliers putatively linked to targets of selection. For example, SNPs within the Cbf4, Ppd-H1, and Vrn-H1 loci, which have previously been associated with agronomically adaptive phenotypes, are identified as outliers. Analysis of extended haplotype sharing identifies genomic regions shared within and among breeding populations, suggestive of a number of genomic regions subject to recent selection. Finally, we are able to identify recent bouts of gene flow between breeding populations that could point to the sharing of agronomically adaptive variation. These results are supported by pedigrees and breeders' understanding of germplasm sharing. PMID:26715093

  16. How domain growth is implemented determines the long-term behavior of a cell population through its effect on spatial correlations.

    PubMed

    Ross, Robert J H; Baker, R E; Yates, C A

    2016-07-01

    Domain growth plays an important role in many biological systems, and so the inclusion of domain growth in models of these biological systems is important to understanding how these systems function. In this work we present methods to include the effects of domain growth on the evolution of spatial correlations in a continuum approximation of a lattice-based model of cell motility and proliferation. We show that, depending on the way in which domain growth is implemented, different steady-state densities are predicted for an agent population. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the way in which domain growth is implemented can result in the evolution of the agent density depending on the size of the domain. Continuum approximations that ignore spatial correlations cannot capture these behaviors, while those that account for spatial correlations do. These results will be of interest to researchers in developmental biology, as they suggest that the nature of domain growth can determine the characteristics of cell populations. PMID:27575165

  17. The Effects of Both Recent and Long-Term Selection and Genetic Drift Are Readily Evident in North American Barley Breeding Populations

    PubMed Central

    Poets, Ana M.; Mohammadi, Mohsen; Seth, Kiran; Wang, Hongyun; Kono, Thomas J. Y.; Fang, Zhou; Muehlbauer, Gary J.; Smith, Kevin P.; Morrell, Peter L.

    2015-01-01

    Barley was introduced to North America ∼400 yr ago but adaptation to modern production environments is more recent. Comparisons of allele frequencies among growth habits and spike (inflorescence) types in North America indicate that significant genetic differentiation has accumulated in a relatively short evolutionary time span. Allele frequency differentiation is greatest among barley with two-row vs. six-row spikes, followed by spring vs. winter growth habit. Large changes in allele frequency among breeding programs suggest a major contribution of genetic drift and linked selection on genetic variation. Despite this, comparisons of 3613 modern North American cultivated barley breeding lines that differ for spike-type and growth habit permit the discovery of 142 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) outliers putatively linked to targets of selection. For example, SNPs within the Cbf4, Ppd-H1, and Vrn-H1 loci, which have previously been associated with agronomically adaptive phenotypes, are identified as outliers. Analysis of extended haplotype sharing identifies genomic regions shared within and among breeding populations, suggestive of a number of genomic regions subject to recent selection. Finally, we are able to identify recent bouts of gene flow between breeding populations that could point to the sharing of agronomically adaptive variation. These results are supported by pedigrees and breeders’ understanding of germplasm sharing. PMID:26715093

  18. Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Jenkinson, Helen C; Skinner, Rod; Frobisher, Clare

    2016-01-01

    Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number

  19. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures. PMID:26318547

  20. Prevalence and long-term predictors of persistent chronic widespread pain in the general population in an 11-year prospective study: the HUNT study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is common and associated with prominent negative consequences. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of persistent CWP in an 11-year prospective cohort study in the general population, and to examine anxiety, depression, alcohol use, poor sleep, body mass index (BMI) and chronic disease, along with demographic, lifestyle and other health-related variables as possible predictors for the assumed CWP persistence. Methods CWP was defined as having pain at three or more predefined sites (involving the trunk and upper and lower limbs) for at least three months in the last year. We used a Norwegian general population cohort of 28,367 individuals who responded to both the second (1995–1997) and the third (2006–2008) waves of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT2 and HUNT3, respectively). Data were analysed with logistic regression models. Results CWP prevalence in HUNT2 was 17%. Of those reporting CWP in HUNT2, 53% still reported CWP at follow-up in HUNT3. Adjusted analyses revealed that depression and alcohol consumption were not substantially associated with the 11-year prospective CWP outcome. Poor sleep, obesity and chronic disease predicted persistent CWP, and being male and/or 60 years or older was protective. Conclusions This cohort study revealed that nearly half of the participants with baseline CWP resolved from CWP 11 years later. Among those whose CWP did not resolve, obesity, sleeping problems and chronic disease predicted CWP persistence, while aging and male sex was protective. Anxiety, mixed anxiety and depression, former smoking, and overweight were weakly associated, while depression, moderate exercise, and alcohol use were not associated with persistent CWP. PMID:24951013

  1. Clinical Profile and Long-Term Prognostic Factors of a Young Chinese Han Population (≤ 40 Years) Having ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Geng; Zhou, Ying; Liu, Hong-Bin; Chen, Yun-Dai

    2015-01-01

    Background The proportion of the mainland Chinese population with premature ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction is significantly elevated. Young patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction have a different risk factor profile and clinical outcome compared with elder patients, and may also differ as compared to young patients in Western populations. Methods We analyzed a total of 9462 consecutive ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, and recruited 341 consecutive cases who had survived their first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction at the age less than 40 years, and followed-up these patients for 5 years. Results The most prevalent risk factor in young Chinese ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients was smoking (307/341, 90.03%) and male gender (328/341, 96.19%), although young patients had fewer traditional risk factors of acute myocardial infarction than the control group [(1.63 ± 1.03) vs. (2.38 ± 1.15), p < 0.01]. The number of affected vessels in cases was significantly less than in the elder control group (p < 0.01). During the follow-up, blood lipids and blood pressure of most patients reached the target level, while 42.10% of patients reported continuation of smoking. Multivariable data analysis showed that persistence of smoking (OR: 3.784, 95% CI: 1.636-8.751, p < 0.01) was the most significant prognostic factor of cardiac events after adjusting for various confounding factors. Conclusions We demonstrated that cigarette smoking is the most prevalent factor among the avoidable cardiovascular risk factors for young ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions in China. Accordingly, continued smoking is the most powerful predictor for the recurrence of cardiac events in young Chinese patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. PMID:27122898

  2. Long-term clinical effects of ventricular pacing reduction with a changeover mode to minimize ventricular pacing in a general pacemaker population

    PubMed Central

    Stockburger, Martin; Boveda, Serge; Moreno, Javier; Da Costa, Antoine; Hatala, Robert; Brachmann, Johannes; Butter, Christian; Garcia Seara, Javier; Rolando, Mara; Defaye, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Aim Right ventricular pacing (VP) has been hypothesized to increase the risk in heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF). The ANSWER study evaluated, whether an AAI-DDD changeover mode to minimize VP (SafeR) improves outcome compared with DDD in a general dual-chamber pacemaker population. Methods and results ANSWER was a randomized controlled multicentre trial assessing SafeR vs. standard DDD in sinus node disease (SND) or AV block (AVB) patients. After a 1-month run-in period, they were randomized (1 : 1) and followed for 3 years. Pre-specified co-primary end-points were VP and the composite of hospitalization for HF, AF, or cardioversion. Pre-specified secondary end-points were cardiac death or HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular hospitalizations. ANSWER enrolled 650 patients (52.0% SND, 48% AVB) at 43 European centres and randomized in SafeR (n = 314) or DDD (n = 318). The SafeR mode showed a significant decrease in VP compared with DDD (11.5 vs. 93.6%, P < 0.0001 at 3 years). Deaths and syncope did not differ between randomization arms. No significant difference between groups [HR = 0.78; 95% CI (0.48–1.25); P = 0.30] was found in the time to event of the co-primary composite of hospitalization for HF, AF, or cardioversion, nor in the individual components. SafeR showed a 51% risk reduction (RR) in experiencing cardiac death or HF hospitalization [HR = 0.49; 95% CI (0.27–0.90); P = 0.02] and 30% RR in experiencing cardiovascular hospitalizations [HR = 0.70; 95% CI (0.49–1.00); P = 0.05]. Conclusion SafeR safely and significantly reduced VP in a general pacemaker population though had no effect on hospitalization for HF, AF, or cardioversion, when compared with DDD. PMID:25179761

  3. [Long-term survival after severe trauma].

    PubMed

    Mutschler, W; Mutschler, M; Graw, M; Lefering, R

    2016-07-01

    Long-term survival after severe trauma is rarely addressed in German trauma journals although knowledge of life expectancy and identification of factors contributing to increased mortality are important for lifetime care management, development of service models, and targeting health promotion and prevention interventions. As reliable data in Germany are lacking, we compiled data mainly from the USA and Australia to describe life expectancy, risk factors, and predictors of outcome in patients experiencing traumatic spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and polytrauma. Two years after trauma, life expectancy in all three categories was significantly lower than that of the general population. It depends strongly on severity of disability, age, and gender and is quantifiable. Whereas improvements in medical care have led to a marked decline in short-term mortality, surprisingly long-term survival in severe trauma has not changed over the past 30 years. Therefore, there is need to intensify long-term trauma patient care and to find new strategies to limit primary damage. PMID:27342106

  4. Modeling Maintenance of Long-Term Potentiation in Clustered Synapses: Long-Term Memory without Bistability

    PubMed Central

    Smolen, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Memories are stored, at least partly, as patterns of strong synapses. Given molecular turnover, how can synapses maintain strong for the years that memories can persist? Some models postulate that biochemical bistability maintains strong synapses. However, bistability should give a bimodal distribution of synaptic strength or weight, whereas current data show unimodal distributions for weights and for a correlated variable, dendritic spine volume. Thus it is important for models to simulate both unimodal distributions and long-term memory persistence. Here a model is developed that connects ongoing, competing processes of synaptic growth and weakening to stochastic processes of receptor insertion and removal in dendritic spines. The model simulates long-term (>1 yr) persistence of groups of strong synapses. A unimodal weight distribution results. For stability of this distribution it proved essential to incorporate resource competition between synapses organized into small clusters. With competition, these clusters are stable for years. These simulations concur with recent data to support the “clustered plasticity hypothesis” which suggests clusters, rather than single synaptic contacts, may be a fundamental unit for storage of long-term memory. The model makes empirical predictions and may provide a framework to investigate mechanisms maintaining the balance between synaptic plasticity and stability of memory. PMID:25945261

  5. Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research.

    PubMed

    Menge, Bruce A; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

    2016-01-01

    Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed

  6. Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

    PubMed Central

    Menge, Bruce A.; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

    2016-01-01

    Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5–15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the “Sea Star associated Densovirus” (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for

  7. A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koford, Rolf R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.

    1992-01-01

    We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

  8. Long-term performance of rapid oxidation of arsenite in simulated groundwater using a population of arsenite-oxidizing microorganisms in a bioreactor.

    PubMed

    Li, Hao; Zeng, Xian-Chun; He, Zhong; Chen, Xiaoming; E, Guoji; Han, Yiyang; Wang, Yanxin

    2016-09-15

    A population of arsenite-oxidizing microorganisms enriched from the tailing of the Shimen realgar mine was used to generate biofilms on the surfaces of perlites. This bioreactor is able to completely oxidize 1100 μg/L As(III) dissolved in simulated groundwater into As(V) within 10 min; after 140 days of operation, approximately 20 min were required to completely oxidize the same concentration of As(III). Analysis for the 16S rRNA genes of the microbial community showed that Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria are dominant in the reactor. Six different bacterial strains were randomly isolated from the reactor. Function and gene analysis indicated that all the isolates possess arsenite-oxidizing activity, and five of them are chemoautotrophic. Further analysis showed that a large diversity of AioAs and two types of RuBisCOs are present in the microbial community. This suggests that many chemoautotrophic arsenite-oxidizing microorganisms were responsible for quick oxidation of arsenite in the reactor. We also found that the reactor is easily regenerated and its number is readily expanded. To the best of our knowledge, the arsenite-oxidizing efficiency, which was expressed as the minimum time for complete oxidization of a certain concentration of As(III) under a single operation, of this bioreactor is the highest among the described bioreactors; it is also the most stable, economic and environment-friendly. PMID:27288673

  9. Characterization of chlordecone-tolerant fungal populations isolated from long-term polluted tropical volcanic soil in the French West Indies.

    PubMed

    Merlin, Chloé; Devers, Marion; Crouzet, Olivier; Heraud, Cécile; Steinberg, Christian; Mougin, Christian; Martin-Laurent, Fabrice

    2014-04-01

    The insecticide chlordecone is a contaminant found in most of the banana plantations in the French West Indies. This study aims to search for fungal populations able to grow on it. An Andosol heavily contaminated with chlordecone, perfused for 1 year in a soil-charcoal system, was used to conduct enrichment cultures. A total of 103 fungal strains able to grow on chlordecone-mineral salt medium were isolated, purified, and deposited in the MIAE collection (Microorganismes d'Intérêt Agro-Environnemental, UMR Agroécologie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Dijon, France). Internal transcribed spacer sequencing revealed that all isolated strains belonged to the Ascomycota phylum and gathered in 11 genera: Metacordyceps, Cordyceps, Pochonia, Acremonium, Fusarium, Paecilomyces, Ophiocordyceps, Purpureocillium, Bionectria, Penicillium, and Aspergillus. Among predominant species, only one isolate, Fusarium oxysporum MIAE01197, was able to grow in a liquid culture medium that contained chlordecone as sole carbon source. Chlordecone increased F. oxysporum MIAE01197 growth rate, attesting for its tolerance to this organochlorine. Moreover, F. oxysporum MIAE01197 exhibited a higher EC50 value than the reference strain F. oxysporum MIAE00047. This further suggests its adaptation to chlordecone tolerance up to 29.2 mg l(-1). Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis revealed that 40 % of chlordecone was dissipated in F. oxysporum MIAE01197 suspension culture. No chlordecone metabolite was detected by GC-MS. However, weak amount of (14)CO2 evolved from (14)C10-chlordecone and (14)C10-metabolites were observed. Sorption of (14)C10-chlordecone onto fungal biomass followed a linear relationship (r (2) = 0.99) suggesting that it may also account for chlordecone dissipation in F. oxysporum MIAE01197 culture. PMID:23872892

  10. Evolving epidemiology of invasive Haemophilus infections in the post-vaccination era: results from a long-term population-based study.

    PubMed

    Berndsen, M R; Erlendsdóttir, H; Gottfredsson, M

    2012-09-01

    Historically, Haemophilus influenzae (Hi) serotype b (Hib) caused most invasive Haemophilus infections worldwide, mainly in children. In 1989 routine childhood vaccination against Hib was initiated in Iceland. We conducted a population-based study of all patients in the country with Haemophilus spp. isolated from sterile sites (n = 202), from 1983 to 2008. Epidemiology, clinical characteristics of the infections and serotypes of the isolates were compared during the pre-vaccination (1983-1989) and post-vaccination era (1990-2008). Following the vaccination, the overall incidence of Hib decreased from 6.4 to 0.3/100,000 per year (p <0.05) whereas the incidence did not change significantly for infections caused by Haemophilus sensu lato not serotype b, hereafter referred to as non-type b Hi (0.9 vs 1.2, respectively). The most frequent diagnosis prior to 1990 was meningitis caused by Hib, which was subsequently replaced by pneumonia and bacteraemia caused by non-type b Hi. Most commonly, non-type b Hi were non-typeable (NTHi; 40/59), followed by Hi serotype f (14/59) and Hi serotype a (3/59). Pregnancy was associated with a markedly increased susceptibility to invasive Haemophilus infections (RR 25.7; 95% CI 8.0-95.9, p <0.0001) compared with non-pregnant women. The case fatality rate for Hib was 2.4% but 14% for non-type b Hi, highest at the extremes of age. Hib vaccination gives young children excellent protection and decreases incidence in the elderly due to herd effect in the community. Replacement with other species or serotypes has not been noted. Pregnant women are an overlooked risk group. PMID:22070637

  11. Long term survival with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) versus thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection in elderly people: national population based study with propensity matched comparative analysis

    PubMed Central

    Paul, Subroto; Lee, Paul C; Mao, Jialin; Isaacs, Abby J

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To compare cancer specific survival after thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for tumors ≤2 cm in size and thoracoscopic resection (sublobar resection or lobectomy) and SABR for tumors ≤5 cm in size. Design National population based retrospective cohort study with propensity matched comparative analysis. Setting Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry linked with Medicare database in the United States. Participants Patients aged ≥66 with lung cancer undergoing SABR or thoracoscopic lobectomy or sublobar resection from 1 Oct 2007 to 31 June 2012 and followed up to 31 December 2013. Main outcome measures Cancer specific survival after SABR or thoracoscopic surgery for lung cancer. Results 690 (275 (39.9%) SABR and 415 (60.1%) thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection) and 2967 (714 (24.1%) SABR and 2253 (75.9%) thoracoscopic resection) patients were included in primary and secondary analyses. The average age of the entire cohort was 76. Follow-up of the entire cohort ranged from 0 to 6.25 years, with an average of three years. In the primary analysis of patients with tumors sized ≤2 cm, 37 (13.5%) undergoing SABR and 44 (10.6%) undergoing thoracoscopic sublobar resection died from lung cancer, respectively. The cancer specific survival diverged after one year, but in the matched analysis (201 matched patients in each group) there was no significant difference between the groups (SABR v sublobar lung resection mortality: hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 2.26; P=0.32). Estimated cancer specific survival at three years after SABR and thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection was 82.6% and 86.4%, respectively. The secondary analysis (643 matched patients in each group) showed that thoracoscopic resection was associated with improved cancer specific survival over SABR in patients with tumors sized ≤5 cm (SABR v resection mortality: hazard ratio 2.10, 1.52 to 2.89; P<0

  12. Circulatory Diseases in the U.S. Elderly in the Linked National Long-Term Care Survey-Medicare Database: Population-Based Analysis of Incidence, Comorbidity, and Disability

    PubMed Central

    Akushevich, Igor; Kravchenko, Julia; Ukraintseva, Svetlana; Arbeev, Konstantin; Yashin, Anatoli I.

    2014-01-01

    Incidence rates of acute coronary heart disease (ACHD; including myocardial infarction and angina pectoris), stroke, and heart failure (HF) were studied for their age, disability, and comorbidity patterns in the U.S. elderly population using the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) data linked to Medicare records for 1991–2005. Incidence rates increased with age with a decrease in the oldest old (stroke and HF) or were stable at all ages (ACHD). For all diseases, incidence rates were lower among institutionalized individuals and higher in individuals with higher comorbidity indices. The results could be used for understanding currently debated effects of biomedical research, screening, and therapeutic innovations on changes in disease incidence with advancing age as well as for projecting future Medicare costs. PMID:26609189

  13. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations

    SciTech Connect

    Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2011-08-10

    Highlights: {yields} Weight transfer functions for Monte Carlo simulation of coagulation. {yields} Efficient support for single-particle growth processes. {yields} Comparisons to analytic solutions and soot formation problems. {yields} Better numerical accuracy for less common particles. - Abstract: A class of coagulation weight transfer functions is constructed, each member of which leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. These algorithms are based on systems of weighted computational particles and the weight transfer functions are constructed such that the number of computational particles does not change during coagulation events. The algorithms also facilitate the simulation of physical processes that change single particles, such as growth, or other surface reactions. Four members of the algorithm family have been numerically validated by comparison to analytic solutions to simple problems. Numerical experiments have been performed for complex laminar premixed flame systems in which members of the class of stochastic weighted particle methods were compared to each other and to a direct simulation algorithm. Two of the weighted algorithms have been shown to offer performance advantages over the direct simulation algorithm in situations where interest is focused on the larger particles in a system. The extent of this advantage depends on the particular system and on the quantities of interest.

  14. Robustness against extinction by stochastic sex determination in small populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, David M.; do Carmo, Eduardo; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

    2012-10-01

    Sexually reproducing populations with a small number of individuals may go extinct by stochastic fluctuations in sex determination, causing all their members to become male or female in a generation. In this work we calculate the time to extinction of isolated populations with fixed number N of individuals that are updated according to the Moran birth and death process. At each time step, one individual is randomly selected and replaced by its offspring resulting from mating with another individual of the opposite sex; the offspring can be male or female with equal probability. A set of N time steps is called a generation, the average time it takes for the entire population to be replaced. The number k of females fluctuates in time, similarly to a random walk, and extinction, which is the only asymptotic possibility, occurs when k=0 or k=N. We show that it takes only one generation for an arbitrary initial distribution of males and females to approach the binomial distribution. This distribution, however, is unstable and the population eventually goes extinct in 2N/N generations. We also discuss the robustness of these results against bias in the determination of the sex of the offspring, a characteristic promoted by infection by the bacteria Wolbachia in some arthropod species or by temperature in reptiles.

  15. Complex Population Dynamics in Mussels Arising from Density-Linked Stochasticity

    PubMed Central

    Wootton, J. Timothy; Forester, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Population fluctuations are generally attributed to the deterministic consequences of strong non-linear interactions among organisms, or the effects of random stochastic environmental variation superimposed upon the deterministic skeleton describing population change. Analysis of the population dynamics of the mussel Mytilus californianus taken in 16 plots over 18-years found no evidence that these processes explained observed strong fluctuations. Instead, population fluctuations arose because environmental stochasticity varied with abundance, which we term density-linked stochasticity. This phenomenon arises from biologically relevant mechanisms: recruitment variation and transmission of disturbance among neighboring individuals. Density-linked stochasticity is probably present frequently in populations, as it arises naturally from several general ecological processes, including stage structure variation with density, ontogenetic niche shifts, and local transmission of stochastic perturbations. More thoroughly characterizing and interpreting deviations from the mean behavior of a system will lead to better ecological prediction and improved insight into the important processes affecting populations and ecosystems. PMID:24086617

  16. Long-Term Care Policy: Singapore's Experience.

    PubMed

    Chin, Chee Wei Winston; Phua, Kai-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Singapore, like many developed countries, is facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population and the increasing need to provide long-term care (LTC) services for elderly in the community. The Singapore government's philosophy on care for the elderly is that the family should be the first line of support, and it has relied on voluntary welfare organizations (VWOs) or charities for the bulk of LTC service provision. For LTC financing, it has emphasized the principles of co-payment and targeting of state support to the low-income population through means-tested government subsidies. It has also instituted ElderShield, a national severe disability insurance scheme. This paper discusses some of the challenges facing LTC policy in Singapore, particularly the presence of perverse financial incentives for hospitalization, the pitfalls of over-reliance on VWOs, and the challenges facing informal family caregivers. It discusses the role of private LTC insurance in LTC financing, bearing in mind demand- and supply-side failures that have plagued the private LTC insurance market. It suggests the need for more standardized needs assessment and portable LTC benefits, with reference to the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, and also discusses the need to provide more support to informal family caregivers. PMID:26808468

  17. Stapedectomy - long-term report.

    PubMed

    Shea, J J

    1982-01-01

    The long-term results with large fenestra stapedectomy with vein graft and Teflon piston are compared with results with the small fenestra stapedectomy with teflon piston directly into the vestibule. There were 1,943 operations in the former group and 2,155 in the latter when compared in 1970. One hundred consecutive patients from the beginning of each group with follow-up to present were compared. Results were generally the same with no great change in 15 and 20 years as compared to those at 5 years. The complication of perilymph fistula was caused by creating an opening in the footplate much larger than the prosthesis and was eliminated by interposing a living oval window seal if the opening was much larger than the prosthesis and a flap of lining membrane from the promontory when it was not. Other factors that influence a good result are discussed, including the type and the diameter of the piston used, the type of living oval window seal and the method of attachment to the incus. The small fenestra operation was found to be superior to the large, not only for the hearing gain achieved, but the case of performance and the freedom from complications due to migration of the prosthesis and/or the oval window seal. At present we have done about all that can be done for the conductive components. What remains is the sensorineural component which our studies indicate may be due to an autoimmune response. PMID:6897157

  18. Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Raymond W.; Brown, Neil L.

    2005-01-01

    Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

  19. Influenza in long-term care facilities: preventable, detectable, treatable.

    PubMed

    Mossad, Sherif B

    2009-09-01

    Influenza in long-term care facilities is an ever more challenging problem. Vaccination of residents and health care workers is the most important preventive measure. Although vaccine efficacy has been questioned, the preponderance of data favors vaccination. Antiviral resistance complicates postexposure chemoprophylaxis and treatment. Factors that limit the choice of antiviral agents in this patient population include limited vaccine supplies and impaired dexterity and confusion in long-term care residents. PMID:19726556

  20. Long term prediction of flood occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; José Polo, María

    2016-05-01

    How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

  1. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  2. The UCLA population studies of chronic obstructive respiratory disease. IV. Respiratory effect of long-term exposure to photochemical oxidants, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfates on current and never smokers

    SciTech Connect

    Detels, R.; Sayre, J.W.; Coulson, A.H.; Rokaw, S.N.; Massey, F.J. Jr.; Tashkin, D.P.; Wu, M.M.

    1981-12-01

    Questionnaires, spirometry, and the single-breath nitrogen test were administered to 3,192 participants 25 to 39 yr of age in area exposed to low concentrations of all pollutants (Lancaster, California) and to 2,369 similar participants living in an area exposed to high concentrations of photochemical oxidants, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfates (Glendora, California). The prevalence of symptoms and results in the majority of the tests were worse in the polluted area between current and never smokers and men and women. Those tests associated primarily with small airways (Vmax50, Vmax75, delta N 2(750-1250) showed little or no difference between areas. The difference in the prevalence of participants with a poor FEV1 and/or poor FEV1 and/or poor FVC and in the mean Vmax and closing volume was greater between areas than between smoking categories. These results suggest that long-term exposure to high concentrations of photochemical oxidants, NO2, and sulfates at place of residence may result in measurable impairment in both current smokers and never smokers. Firmer documentation of this effect will require following these populations for changes in lung function that correlate with pollutant exposures.

  3. High quality long-term CD4+ and CD8+ effector memory populations stimulated by DNA-LACK/MVA-LACK regimen in Leishmania major BALB/c model of infection.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Sampedro, Lucas; Gómez, Carmen Elena; Mejías-Pérez, Ernesto; Sorzano, Carlos Oscar S; Esteban, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Heterologous vaccination based on priming with a plasmid DNA vector and boosting with an attenuated vaccinia virus MVA recombinant, with both vectors expressing the Leishmania infantum LACK antigen (DNA-LACK and MVA-LACK), has shown efficacy conferring protection in murine and canine models against cutaneus and visceral leishmaniasis, but the immune parameters of protection remain ill defined. Here we performed by flow cytometry an in depth analysis of the T cell populations induced in BALB/c mice during the vaccination protocol DNA-LACK/MVA-LACK, as well as after challenge with L. major parasites. In the adaptive response, there is a polyfunctional CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell activation against LACK antigen. At the memory phase the heterologous vaccination induces high quality LACK-specific long-term CD4(+) and CD8(+) effector memory cells. After parasite challenge, there is a moderate boosting of LACK-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. Anti-vector responses were largely CD8(+)-mediated. The immune parameters induced against LACK and triggered by the combined vaccination DNA/MVA protocol, like polyfunctionality of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells with an effector phenotype, could be relevant in protection against leishmaniasis. PMID:22715418

  4. Long-Term Economic and Labor Forecast Trends for Washington. 1996.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lefberg, Irv; And Others

    This publication provides actual historical and long-term forecast data on labor force, total wage and salary employment, industry employment, and personal income for the state of Washington. The data are based upon the Washington Office of Financial Management long-term population forecast. Chapter 1 presents long-term forecasts of Washington…

  5. Long-term solar-terrestrial observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The results of an 18-month study of the requirements for long-term monitoring and archiving of solar-terrestrial data is presented. The value of long-term solar-terrestrial observations is discussed together with parameters, associated measurements, and observational problem areas in each of the solar-terrestrial links (the sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere). Some recommendations are offered for coordinated planning for long-term solar-terrestrial observations.

  6. Private Financing Options for Long-term Care

    PubMed Central

    Brody, Barbara L.; Simon, Harold J.; Smallwood, Dennis E.

    1987-01-01

    Private financing for long-term care now comes almost exclusively from out-of-pocket payments. Long-term-care costs quickly impoverish most elderly, resulting in Medicaid dependency. The consequences are profound for the western Sun Belt with its rapidly growing elderly population. Key private financing options are long-term-care individual retirement accounts (LTC/IRAs), home equity conversion, social-health maintenance organizations and long-term-care insurance. Study of data from the past half century suggests that the LTC/IRA approach would prove unsatisfactory for the purpose despite the intuitive appeal of this mechanism. Experience with home equity conversions is still very limited, and unresolved questions limit this approach to the role of a reserve option for now. While promising, social-health maintenance organizations are still in the experimental stages and not yet commercially available. Long-term-care insurance is currently sold on a thin market and emphasizes nursing home coverage. New approaches to private financing through long-term-care insurance seem to offer the best approach for immediate implementation. PMID:3118576

  7. Commentary: The Broader Context of Long-Term Care Ethics.

    PubMed

    Lesandrini, Jason; O'Connell, Carol

    2016-07-01

    Ethical issues in long-term care settings, although having received attention in the literature, have not in our opinion received the appropriate level they require. Thus, we applaud the Cambridge Quarterly for publishing this case. We can attest to the significance of ethical issues arising in long-term care facilities, as Mr. Hope's case is all too familiar to those practicing in these settings. What is unique about this case is that an actual ethics consult was made in a long-term care setting. We have seen very little in the published literature on the use of ethics structures in long-term care populations. Our experience is that these healthcare settings are ripe for ethical concerns and that providers, patients, families, and staff need/desire ethics resources to actively and preventively address ethical concerns. The popular press has begun to recognize the ethical issues involved in long-term care settings and the need for ethics structures. Recently, in California a nurse refused to initiate CPR for an elderly patient in a senior residence. In that case, the nurse was quoted as saying that the facility had a policy that nurses were not to start CPR for elderly patients. 1 Although this case is not exactly the same as that of Mr. Hope, it highlights the need for developing robust ethics program infrastructures in long-term care settings that work toward addressing ethical issues through policy, education, and active consultation. PMID:27348841

  8. Effects of stochastic population fluctuations in two models of biological macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Rikvold, Per Arne

    Two mathematical models of macroevolution are studied. These models have population dynamics at the species level, and mutations and extinction of species are also included. The population dynamics are updated by difference equations with stochastic noise terms that characterize population fluctuations. The effects of the stochastic population fluctuations on diversity and total population sizes on evolutionary time scales are studied. In one model, species can make either predator-prey, mutualistic, or competitive interactions, while the other model allows only predator-prey interactions. When the noise in the population dynamics is strong enough, both models show intermittent behavior and their power spectral densities show approximate 1/f fluctuations. In the noiseless limit, the two models have different power spectral densities. For the predator-prey model, 1/f2 fluctuations appears, indicating random-walk like behavior, while the other model still shows 1/f noise. These results indicate that stochastic population fluctuations may significantly affect long-time evolutionary dynamics.

  9. Relating Granger causality to long-term causal effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, Dmitry A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2015-10-01

    In estimation of causal couplings between observed processes, it is important to characterize coupling roles at various time scales. The widely used Granger causality reflects short-term effects: it shows how strongly perturbations of a current state of one process affect near future states of another process, and it quantifies that via prediction improvement (PI) in autoregressive models. However, it is often more important to evaluate the effects of coupling on long-term statistics, e.g., to find out how strongly the presence of coupling changes the variance of a driven process as compared to an uncoupled case. No general relationships between Granger causality and such long-term effects are known. Here, we pose the problem of relating these two types of coupling characteristics, and we solve it for a class of stochastic systems. Namely, for overdamped linear oscillators, we rigorously derive that the above long-term effect is proportional to the short-term effects, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the prediction interval and relaxation times. We reveal that this coefficient is typically considerably greater than unity so that small normalized PI values may well correspond to quite large long-term effects of coupling. The applicability of the derived relationship to wider classes of systems, its limitations, and its value for further research are discussed. To give a real-world example, we analyze couplings between large-scale climatic processes related to sea surface temperature variations in equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic regions.

  10. Forecasting demand for long-term care services.

    PubMed Central

    Lane, D; Uyeno, D; Stark, A; Kliewer, E; Gutman, G

    1985-01-01

    This article analyzes three methods used to forecast the transition of long-term care clients through a variety of possible home and facility placements and levels of care. The test population (N = 1,653) is derived from the larger population of clients admitted in 1978 to British Columbia's newly established Long-Term Care program. The investigators have accumulated 5 years of service-generated data on moves, discharges, and deaths of these clients. Results show that the first-order Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities yields a superior forecast to state-by-state moving average growth and state-by-state regression analyses. The results of these analyses indicate that the Markov method should receive serious consideration as a tool for resource planning and allocation in long-term care. PMID:3932260

  11. Long-term preservation of Anammox bacteria

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Deposit of useful microorganisms in culture collections requires long-term preservation and successful reactivation techniques. The goal of this study was to develop a simple preservation protocol for the long-term storage and reactivation of the anammox biomass. To achieve this, anammox biomass w...

  12. Long Term Preservation of Digital Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lorie, Raymond A.

    The preservation of digital data for the long term presents a variety of challenges from technical to social and organizational. The technical challenge is to ensure that the information, generated today, can survive long term changes in storage media, devices, and data formats. This paper presents a novel approach to the problem. It distinguishes…

  13. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  14. Long-term memory of atmospheric aerosols over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    B, A.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term memory of atmospheric variables is a least understood facet in atmospheric science. The temporal and spatial distribution of atmospheric aerosols depends largely on the atmospheric parameters. Time series analysis using a stochastic model reveals that atmospheric aerosols over India exhibit a long-term memory. Our analysis confirms that by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model we can parsimoniously model the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Indian region with a reasonably good accuracy. This major advantage of this method is that by using past observations we were able to generate forecasts for next 3 years. The forecasts thus generate shows a good fit with the observations. This persistence is due to the presence of temporal dependence between successive observations.

  15. Paying for long-term care.

    PubMed Central

    Estes, C L; Bodenheimer, T

    1994-01-01

    Everyone agrees that insurance for long-term care is inadequate in the United States. Disagreement exists, however, on whether such insurance should be provided through the private or public sector. Private insurance generally uses the experience-rating principle that persons with higher risk of illness are charged higher premiums. For private insurance for long-term care, this principle creates a dilemma. Most policies will be purchased by the elderly; yet, because the elderly have a high risk of needing long-term care, only about 20% of them can afford the cost of premiums. A public-private partnership by which the government partially subsidizes private long-term-care insurance is unlikely to resolve this dilemma. Only a social insurance program for long-term care can provide universal, affordable, and equitable coverage. PMID:8128712

  16. The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

    PubMed

    Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

    2016-06-01

    Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring. PMID:26319413

  17. Long-Term Care: Common Issues and Unknowns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swartz, Katherine; Miake, Naoko; Farag, Nadine

    2012-01-01

    All industrialized countries are grappling with a common problem--how to provide assistance of various kinds to their rapidly aging populations. The problem for countries searching for models of efficient and high-quality long-term care (LTC) policies is that fewer than a dozen countries have government-organized, formal LTC policies. Relatively…

  18. Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Schools and Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberski, Julian; Brodie, Iain D. S.

    1991-01-01

    The value and difficulties of long-term ecological monitoring studies undertaken in schools and colleges are reviewed. Rookeries, stream ecology, sand dune succession, fish population, and seed production and survival are presented as examples of successful studies. This is followed by a discussion of points to consider when setting up a long-term…

  19. Globalization, Women's Migration, and the Long-Term-Care Workforce

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Colette V.; Braun, Kathryn L.

    2008-01-01

    With the aging of the world's population comes the rising need for qualified direct long-term-care (DLTC) workers (i.e., those who provide personal care to frail and disabled older adults). Developed nations are increasingly turning to immigrant women to fill these needs. In this article, we examine the impact of three global trends--population…

  20. Epidemics on networks with heterogeneous population and stochastic infection rates.

    PubMed

    Bonaccorsi, Stefano; Ottaviano, Stefania

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form of independent stochastic processes. To analyze the problem, we apply a mean field approximation, which allows to get a stochastic differential equations for the probability of infection in each node, and classical tools about stability, which require to find suitable Lyapunov's functions. Here, we find conditions which guarantee, respectively, extinction and stochastic persistence of the epidemics. We show that there exists two regions, given in terms of the coefficients of the model, one where the system goes to extinction almost surely, and the other where it is stochastic permanent. These two regions are, unfortunately, not adjacent, as there is a gap between them, whose extension depends on the specific level of noise. In this last region, we perform numerical analysis to suggest the true behavior of the solution. PMID:27404211

  1. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

    PubMed

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-06-01

    The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions. PMID:19268387

  2. Stochasticity and Determinism: How Density-Independent and Density-Dependent Processes Affect Population Variability

    PubMed Central

    Ohlberger, Jan; Rogers, Lauren A.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2014-01-01

    A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans. PMID:24893001

  3. Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Rogers, Lauren A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2014-01-01

    A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans. PMID:24893001

  4. Mental Health in Long Term Care Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, Herbert

    1978-01-01

    There are many ways in which long-term care facilities attempt to cope with the mental health problems of the elderly. The author reviews five factors crucial to effective care for the aged in these facilities. (Author/RK)

  5. Asthma Medicines: Long-Term Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... Español Text Size Email Print Share Asthma Medicines: Long-term Control Page Content Article Body Corticosteroids Synthetic ... and sprinkle forms are available for young children. Long-Acting Beta2-Agonists Medications in the beta 2 - ...

  6. Long Term Effects of Food Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... develop chronic arthritis. Brain and nerve damage A Listeria infection can lead to meningitis, an inflammation of ... brain. If a newborn infant is infected with Listeria , long-term consequences may include mental retardation, seizures, ...

  7. Assessment of the NASA EVOLVE long-term orbital debris evolution model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yates, K. W.; Jonas, F. M.

    1995-02-01

    The EVOLVE long-term orbital debris evolution model developed for the NASA Johnson Space Center by Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Company and Systems Planning Corporation is described and evaluated in detail. This computer model calculates the low earth orbit (LEO) debris spatial number density or flux environment as a function of fragment size, altitude, and time. Launched intact objects, introduced from detailed manifest databases, are time-evolved with an analytical orbit propagator. Debris clouds, formed from the application of a cloud formation algorithm and breakup model, are time-evolved using a derived phenomenological function. This report describes the overall computer model (e.g., its deterministic and stochastic modes of calculation) and examines the individual submodels used to quantify the debris population in LEO. Model results are compared to observed debris data. Specific recommendations and possible model improvements are cited. Also presented is a sample satellite constellation hazard assessment using EVOLVE.

  8. Integration of Research with Long-Term Monitoring: Breeding Wood Ducks on the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Kennamer, R.A.; Hepp, G.R.

    2000-10-01

    In 1981, long-term monitoring of breeding wood ducks was initiated. Females were marked and recaptured for 15 years and annual population parameters were developed. Precise parameter estimates were possible due to high capture rates. The results contribute to the long-term understanding of wood duck populations.

  9. Long term cultivation of larger benthic Foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöger, Julia; Eder, Wolfgang; Kinoshita, Shunichi; Antonino, Briguglio; Carles, Ferrandes-Cañadell; Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    Benthic Foraminifera are used in a variety of applications employing numerous different methods, i.e. ecological monitoring, studying the effects of ocean acidification, reconstructing palaeo-bathymetry or investigating palaeo-salinity and palaeo-temperature to name only a few. To refine our understanding of ecological influences on larger benthic foraminiferal biology and to review inferences from field observations, culture experiments have become an indispensable tool. While culture experiments on smaller benthic foraminifera have become increasingly frequent in the past century, reports of the cultivation of symbiont bearing larger Foraminifera are rare. Generally, cultivation experiments can be divided into two groups: Culturing of populations and cultivation of single specimens allowing individual investigation. The latter differ form the former by several restrictions resulting from the need to limit individual motility without abridging microenvironmental conditions in the Foraminiferans artificial habitat, necessary to enable the individual to development as unfettered as possible. In this study we present first experiences and preliminary results of the long-term cultivation of larger benthic Foraminifera conducted at the 'Tropical Biosphere Research Station Sesoko Island, University of the Ryukyus', Japan, trying to reproduce natural conditions as closely as possible. Individuals of three species of larger benthic Foraminifera (Heterostegina depressa, Palaeonummulites venosus and Operculina complanata) have been cultured since April 2014. At the time of the general assembly the cultivation experiments will have been going on for more than one year, with the aim to investigate growth rates, longevities and reproduction strategies for comparison with results statistically inferred from application of the of the 'natural laboratory' method. The most important factor influencing foraminiferal health and development was found to be light intensity and light

  10. Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Matthies, D.; Schmid, B.

    2003-01-01

    We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused

  11. Long-term Multiwavelength Observations of Polars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santana, Joshua; Mason, Paul A.

    2016-06-01

    Polars are cataclysmic variables with the highest magnetic field strengths (10-250 MG). Matter is accreted after being funneled by the strong magnetic field of the white dwarf. We perform a meta-study of multi-wavelength data of polars. Many polars have been observed in surveys, such as SDSS, 2MASS, ROSAT, just to name a few. Some polars have now been detected by the JVLA, part of an expanding class of radio CVs. A large subset of polars have long-term optical light curves from CRTS and AAVSO. We suggest that the long term light curves of polars display a variety of signature behaviors and may be grouped accordingly. Additional characteristics such a binary period, magnetic field strengths, X-ray properties, and distance estimates are examined in context with long-term observations.

  12. Scenarios for long-term analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wolbers, Stephen; /Fermilab

    2009-01-01

    Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis of High Energy Physics (HEP) Experiments data is described and summarized in this talk. The summary covers information presented at the First Workshop on Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis. Experiments representing e{sup +}e{sup -} collisions (LEP, B Factories and CLEO), ep collisions (H1 and ZEUS), p{bar p} collisions (CDF and D0) and others presented interesting information related to utilizing the large datasets collected over many years at these HEP facilities. Many questions and issues remain to be explored.

  13. Long-term demographic consequences of a seed dispersal disruption

    PubMed Central

    Traveset, Anna; González-Varo, Juan P.; Valido, Alfredo

    2012-01-01

    The loss or decline of vertebrate frugivores can limit the regeneration of plants that depend on them. However, empirical evidence is showing that this is still very scarce, as functionally equivalent species may contribute to maintain the mutualistic interaction. Here, we investigated the long-term consequences of the extinction of frugivorous lizards on the population persistence of a Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon (Cneoraceae). We examined the demographic parameters among 26 insular and mainland populations, which encompass the entire plant distributional range, comparing populations with lizards with those in which these are extinct, but in which alien mammals currently act as seed dispersers. Plant recruitment was found to be higher on island populations with lizards than on those with mammals, and the long-term effects of the native disperser's loss were found in all vital phases of plant regeneration. The study thus gives evidence of the cascading effects of human-induced changes in ecosystems, showing how the disruption of native ecological processes can lead to species regression and, in the long term, even to local extinctions. PMID:22628466

  14. Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

    2007-01-01

    We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgür D.

    2015-12-01

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced following the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto-type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear, which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed.

  16. Marketing in the long-term care continuum.

    PubMed

    Laurence, J Nathan; Kash, Bita A

    2010-04-01

    Today, long-term care facilities are composed of independent, assisted living, and skilled nursing facilities along with many variations of those themes in between. The clientele for these various types of facilities differ because of the level of care the facility provides as well as the amenities long-term care consumers are looking for. However, there many similarities and common approaches to how reaching the target audience through effective marketing activities. Knowing who the target audience is, how to reach them, and how to communicate with them will serve any facility well in this competitive market. Developing marketing strategies for long-term care settings is as important as understanding what elements of care can be marketed individually as a niche market. Determining the market base for a facility is equally crucial since the target populations differ among the three types of facilities. By reviewing current marketing articles and applying marketing practices, we have crafted some general principles for which each facility type can learn from. Finally, we will discuss the types of marketing and how they related to the spectrum of long-term care facilities. PMID:20446138

  17. Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

    PubMed

    Coron, Camille

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches. PMID:25840519

  18. Role of Intracellular Stochasticity in Biofilm Growth. Insights from Population Balance Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Che-Chi; Chatterjee, Anushree; Hu, Wei-Shou; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that stochasticity involved in gene regulatory processes may help cells enhance the signal or synchronize expression for a group of genes. Thus the validity of the traditional deterministic approach to modeling the foregoing processes cannot be without exception. In this study, we identify a frequently encountered situation, i.e., the biofilm, which has in the past been persistently investigated with intracellular deterministic models in the literature. We show in this paper circumstances in which use of the intracellular deterministic model appears distinctly inappropriate. In Enterococcus faecalis, the horizontal gene transfer of plasmid spreads drug resistance. The induction of conjugation in planktonic and biofilm circumstances is examined here with stochastic as well as deterministic models. The stochastic model is formulated with the Chemical Master Equation (CME) for planktonic cells and Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation (RDME) for biofilm. The results show that although the deterministic model works well for the perfectly-mixed planktonic circumstance, it fails to predict the averaged behavior in the biofilm, a behavior that has come to be known as stochastic focusing. A notable finding from this work is that the interception of antagonistic feedback loops to signaling, accentuates stochastic focusing. Moreover, interestingly, increasing particle number of a control variable could lead to an even larger deviation. Intracellular stochasticity plays an important role in biofilm and we surmise by implications from the model, that cell populations may use it to minimize the influence from environmental fluctuation. PMID:24232571

  19. Role of intracellular stochasticity in biofilm growth. Insights from population balance modeling.

    PubMed

    Shu, Che-Chi; Chatterjee, Anushree; Hu, Wei-Shou; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that stochasticity involved in gene regulatory processes may help cells enhance the signal or synchronize expression for a group of genes. Thus the validity of the traditional deterministic approach to modeling the foregoing processes cannot be without exception. In this study, we identify a frequently encountered situation, i.e., the biofilm, which has in the past been persistently investigated with intracellular deterministic models in the literature. We show in this paper circumstances in which use of the intracellular deterministic model appears distinctly inappropriate. In Enterococcus faecalis, the horizontal gene transfer of plasmid spreads drug resistance. The induction of conjugation in planktonic and biofilm circumstances is examined here with stochastic as well as deterministic models. The stochastic model is formulated with the Chemical Master Equation (CME) for planktonic cells and Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation (RDME) for biofilm. The results show that although the deterministic model works well for the perfectly-mixed planktonic circumstance, it fails to predict the averaged behavior in the biofilm, a behavior that has come to be known as stochastic focusing. A notable finding from this work is that the interception of antagonistic feedback loops to signaling, accentuates stochastic focusing. Moreover, interestingly, increasing particle number of a control variable could lead to an even larger deviation. Intracellular stochasticity plays an important role in biofilm and we surmise by implications from the model, that cell populations may use it to minimize the influence from environmental fluctuation. PMID:24232571

  20. Long Term Care Aide. Course Outline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilbee, Judy

    This course outline is intended to assist the instructor in the development of a curriculum for a long-term care aide program by specifying one component of the curriculum--the objectives. These objectives, or competencies expected as outcomes for student performance on completion of the program, describe the capabilities an individual must…

  1. Who Recommends Long-Term Care Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Robert L.; Bershadsky, Boris; Bershadsky, Julie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Making good consumer decisions requires having good information. This study compared long-term-care recommendations among various types of health professionals. Design and Methods: We gave randomly varied scenarios to a convenience national sample of 211 professionals from varying disciplines and work locations. For each scenario, we…

  2. Long-term fixed income market structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grilli, Luca

    2004-02-01

    Long-term fixed income market securities present a strong positive correlation in daily returns. By using a metrical approach and considering “modified” time series, I show how it is possible to show a more complex structure which depends strictly on the maturity date.

  3. Professionalism in Long-Term Care Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubinski, Rosemary

    2006-01-01

    Speech-language pathologists who serve elders in a variety of long-term care settings have a variety of professional skills and responsibilities. Fundamental to quality service is knowledge of aging and communication changes and disorders associated with this process, institutional alternatives, and the changing nature of today's elders in…

  4. LONG TERM HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LTHIA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    LTHIA is a universal Urban Sprawl analysis tool that is available to all at no charge through the Internet. It estimates impacts on runoff, recharge and nonpoint source pollution resulting from past or proposed land use changes. It gives long-term average annual runoff for a lan...

  5. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  6. Long-Term Care Financing: Lessons From France

    PubMed Central

    Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    Context An aging population leads to a growing demand for long-term services and supports (LTSS). In 2002, France introduced universal, income-adjusted, public long-term care coverage for adults 60 and older, whereas the United States funds means-tested benefits only. Both countries have private long-term care insurance (LTCI) markets: American policies create alternatives to out-of-pocket spending and protect purchasers from relying on Medicaid. Sales, however, have stagnated, and the market's viability is uncertain. In France, private LTCI supplements public coverage, and sales are growing, although its potential to alleviate the long-term care financing problem is unclear. We explore whether France's very different approach to structuring public and private financing for long-term care could inform the United States’ long-term care financing reform efforts. Methods We consulted insurance experts and conducted a detailed review of public reports, academic studies, and other documents to understand the public and private LTCI systems in France, their advantages and disadvantages, and the factors affecting their development. Findings France provides universal public coverage for paid assistance with functional dependency for people 60 and older. Benefits are steeply income adjusted and amounts are low. Nevertheless, expenditures have exceeded projections, burdening local governments. Private supplemental insurance covers 11% of French, mostly middle-income adults (versus 3% of Americans 18 and older). Whether policyholders will maintain employer-sponsored coverage after retirement is not known. The government's interest in pursuing an explicit public/private partnership has waned under President François Hollande, a centrist socialist, in contrast to the previous center-right leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy, thereby reducing the prospects of a coordinated public/private strategy. Conclusions American private insurers are showing increasing interest in long-term

  7. Long-term care as part of the continuum.

    PubMed

    McGrail, Kimberlyn

    2011-01-01

    Long-term care (LTC) is but one piece of a continuum of care that stretches from living at home completely independently to the 24-hour supervision and care provided in LTC facilities. People want to stay at home as long as possible and to retain as much independence as they can, and they are often aided in doing so with informal care provided by family and friends. These realities should inform the debates around the construction of the continuum of care. Canada's spending on facility-based long-term care puts us in the middle of the pack among OECD countries; if we consider the whole of continuing care, combining LTC, supportive housing/assisted living and home-based healthcare, Canada stands out as spending the highest proportion (among the 15 countries compared) on facility-based care. Predicting the number of new long-term care beds needed in the future is difficult because of shifting needs and changes in service delivery - new stops on the continuum of care. It is quite possible to organize a system of care that includes a continuum from home-based care to supportive housing and assisted living to LTC that de-emphasizes this last step. The increasing elderly population in Canada will not bring an apocalypse to the healthcare system, but caring for this population will require a redistribution of resources to increase the emphasis on home and community-based services. Our planning for just how many (if any) new long-term care beds are needed and our assessment of reasonable access to those beds need to rest on a vision for the full spectrum of care and attention to the desires of the population we are trying to serve. PMID:21593615

  8. Interest in Long-Term Care among Health Services Administration Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Temple, April; Thompson, Jon M.

    2011-01-01

    The aging of the population has created increased opportunities for health administrators in long-term care. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey of 68 undergraduate health services administration students to explore factors related to interest in a career in long-term care administration. One third expressed interest working in the…

  9. Long-term safety of retinoid therapy.

    PubMed

    Vahlquist, A

    1992-12-01

    The concern about long-term toxicity of oral synthetic retinoids has developed because many patients, especially those with genodermatoses, require lifelong therapy. Several organ systems are at risk, especially the hepatic, skeletal, and cardiovascular systems. Although acute hepatotoxicity is a rare side effect of etretinate and acitretin therapy, prospective studies have not demonstrated chronic liver toxicity. The frequency of bone changes induced by retinoids is difficult to estimate, because this adverse effect is usually asymptomatic and requires x-ray or scintigraphic examination for detection. Atherosclerosis develops in many patients who receive long-term retinoid therapy, but the extent to which the process is aggravated by drug-induced hyperlipidemia is not known. Many patients have now been treated with either etretinate or isotretinoin continuously for as many as 15 years and have not developed any signs of severe chronic toxicity. However, continued intense surveillance is recommended for patients expected to require lifelong therapy. PMID:1460122

  10. The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

    PubMed

    Song, Z; Feldman, M W

    2013-05-01

    The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems. PMID:23496797

  11. The international migration of nurses in long-term care.

    PubMed

    Redfoot, Donald L; Houser, Ari N

    2008-01-01

    This article describes five major factors that are affecting patterns of international migration among nurses who work in long-term care settings: DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS: The aging of the populations in developed countries and the low to negative growth in the working-age population will increase the demand for international workers to provide long-term care services. GENDER AND RACE: A dual labor market of long-term care workers, increasingly made up of women of color, is becoming internationalized by the employment of migrating nurses from developing countries. CREDENTIALING: The process of credentialing skilled workers creates barriers to entry for migrating nurses and leads to "decredentialing" where registered nurses work as licensed practical nurses or aides. COLONIAL HISTORY AND GEOGRAPHY: The colonial histories of many European countries and the United States have increased migration from former colonies in developing countries to former colonial powers. WORKER RECRUITMENT: Efforts to limit the recruitment of health care workers from some developing countries have had little effect on migration, in part because much of the recruitment comes through informal channels of family and friends. PMID:18788368

  12. [Taiwan long-term care insurance and the evolution of long-term care in Japan].

    PubMed

    Huang, Hui-Wen; Liu, Shu-Hui; Pai, Yu-Chu

    2010-08-01

    The proportion of elderly (65 years of age and older) in Taiwan has exceeded 10% since 2008. With more elderly, the number of patients suffering from dementia and disabilities has also been rapidly increasing. Japan also has been facing increasing demand for long-term care due to an aging society. Prior to 2000, social welfare programs in Japan, working to cope with changing needs, typically provided insufficient services, and geriatric patients were hospitalized unnecessarily, wasting medical resources and causing undue patient hardship. In response, Japan launched its long-term care insurance program in April 2000. Under the program, city, town and village-based organizations should take responsibility for providing care to the elderly in their place of residence. The program significantly improved previous financial shortfalls and long-term care supply and demand has been met by existing social welfare organization resources. In Taiwan, the provision of long-term care by county / city authorities has proven inconsistent, with performance deemed poor after its first decade of long-term care operations. Service was found to be affected by differences in available resources and insufficient long-term care administration. The cultures of Taiwan and Japan are similar. The authors visited the Japan Long-Term Care Insurance Institute in August 2009. Main issues involved in the implementation and evolution of the Japan long-term Care Insurance are reported on in this paper. We hope such may be useful information to those working to develop long-term care programs in Taiwan. PMID:20661859

  13. Optimal vaccination in a stochastic epidemic model of two non-interacting populations.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Edwin C; Alderson, David L; Stromberg, Sean; Carlson, Jean M

    2015-01-01

    Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case. PMID:25688857

  14. Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Edwin C.; Alderson, David L.; Stromberg, Sean; Carlson, Jean M.

    2015-01-01

    Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case. PMID:25688857

  15. Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreher, P. E.; Lyons, A. T.

    1990-10-01

    Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.

  16. Long-term sequelae of electrical injury

    PubMed Central

    Wesner, Marni L.; Hickie, John

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To summarize the current evidence-based knowledge about the long-term sequelae of injuries from electrical current. Quality of evidence MEDLINE was searched for English-language articles published in the past 20 years using the following search terms: electrical, injuries, wound, trauma, accident, sequelae, long-term, follow-up, and aftereffects. For obvious reasons, it is unethical to randomly study electrical injury in controlled clinical trials. By necessity, this topic is addressed in less-rigorous observational and retrospective work and case studies. Therefore, the strength of the literature pertaining to the long-term sequelae of electrical injury is impaired by the necessity of retrospective methods and case studies that typically describe small cohorts. Main message There are 2 possible consequences of electrical injury: the person either survives or dies. For those who survive electrical injury, the immediate consequences are usually obvious and often require extensive medical intervention. The long-term sequelae of the electrical injury might be more subtle, pervasive, and less well defined, but can include neurologic, psychological, and physical symptoms. In the field of compensation medicine, determining causation and attributing outcome to an injury that might not result in objective clinical findings becomes a considerable challenge. Conclusion The appearance of these consequences of electrical injury might be substantially delayed, with onset 1 to 5 or more years after the electrical injury. This poses a problem for patients and health care workers, making it hard to ascribe symptoms to a remote injury when they might not arise until well after the incident event. PMID:24029506

  17. Long-term Variation of AGNs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, J. H.; Xie, G. Z.; Adam, G.; Copin, Y.; Lin, R. G.; Bai, J. M.; Quin, Y. P.

    In this paper we will present the long-term variation in the optical and the infrared bands for some selected AGNs. 1. Some new optical data observed by us have been presented for BL Lacertae (1995-1996) and OJ 287 (1994-1995), and new infrared data are presented for OJ 287 (Nov=2E 1995), which corresponds to the second optical peak (Sillanpaa et al. 1996; Takalo et al. 1996) and during last outburst. 2. For objects with long term observations, the Jurkevich's method has been used to analyses the long-term variation period. It is interesting that the reported periods of AGNs are of the similar value of about 10 years: 3C 345 11.4 years (Webb et al. 1988), 3C 120 15 years (Belokon et al. 1987; Hagen-Thorn et al. 1997), ON 231 13.6 years (Liu et al. 1995), OJ 287 12 years (Sillanpaa et al. 1988; Kidger et al. 1992), PKS 0735+178 14 years (Fan et al. 1997), NGC 4151 15 years (Fan et al. 1998a), BL Lacertae 14.0 years (Fan et al. 1998b). Is the mechanism for the long-term variation the same for different AGNs? 3. The DCF method has been adopted to analysis the variation correlation in the optical and infrared bands for BL Lac object OJ 287, the results show that these two bands are strongly correlated, which suggest that the emission mechanism in the two bands is the same. 4. For the optical and infrared bands, the maximum variations are correlated.

  18. Long-term home hemodialysis in children

    PubMed Central

    Borra, Sonia; Kaye, Michael

    1971-01-01

    Experience with chronic hemodialysis as a definitive form of therapy is described for six children aged 11 to 15 years at the onset. Duration on dialysis in the home has been between one and 4½ years. All patients are alive and rehabilitated without serious complications. It is concluded that although transplantation is the most desirable form of treatment for children, long-term hemodialysis is an alternative acceptable second choice. ImagesFIG. 2 PMID:5150193

  19. Long-term consequences of anorexia nervosa.

    PubMed

    Meczekalski, Blazej; Podfigurna-Stopa, Agnieszka; Katulski, Krzysztof

    2013-07-01

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a psychiatric disorder that occurs mainly in female adolescents and young women. The obsessive fear of weight gain, critically limited food intake and neuroendocrine aberrations characteristic of AN have both short- and long-term consequences for the reproductive, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and skeletal systems. Neuroendocrine changes include impairment of gonadotropin releasing-hormone (GnRH) pulsatile secretion and changes in neuropeptide activity at the hypothalamic level, which cause profound hypoestrogenism. AN is related to a decrease in bone mass density, which can lead to osteopenia and osteoporosis and a significant increase in fracture risk in later life. Rates of birth complications and low birth weight may be higher in women with previous AN. The condition is associated with fertility problems, unplanned pregnancies and generally negative attitudes to pregnancy. During pregnancy, women with the condition have higher rates of hyperemesis gravidarum, anaemia and obstetric complications, as well as impaired weight gain and compromised intrauterine foetal growth. It is reported that 80% of AN patients are affected by a cardiac complications such as sinus bradycardia, a prolonged QT interval on electrocardiography, arrythmias, myocardial mass modification and hypotension. A decrease in bone mineral density (BMD) is one of the most important medical consequences of AN. Reduced BMD may subsequently lead to a three- to seven-fold increased risk of spontaneous fractures. Untreated AN is associated with a significant increase in the risk of death. Better detection and sophisticated therapy should prevent the long-term consequences of this disorder. The aims of treatment are not only recovery but also prophylaxis and relief of the long-term effects of this disorder. Further investigations of the long-term disease risk are needed. PMID:23706279

  20. RNA transport and long-term memory storage

    PubMed Central

    Puthanveettil, Sathyanarayanan V

    2013-01-01

    Several studies have shown that synthesis of new proteins at the synapse is a prerequisite for the storage of long-term memories. Relatively little is known about the availability of distinct mRNA populations for translation at specific synapses, the process that determines mRNA localization, and the temporal designations of localized mRNA translation during memory storage. Techniques such as synaptosome preparation and microdissection of distal neuronal processes of cultured neurons and dendritic layers in brain slices are general approaches used to identify localized RNAs. Exploration of the association of RNA-binding proteins to the axonal transport machinery has led to the development of a strategy to identify RNAs that are transported from the cell body to synapses by molecular motor kinesin. In this article, RNA localization at the synapse, as well as its mechanisms and significance in understanding long-term memory storage, are discussed. PMID:24356491

  1. Titanium for long-term tritium storage

    SciTech Connect

    Heung, L.K.

    1994-12-01

    Due to the reduction of nuclear weapon stockpile, there will be an excess of tritium returned from the field. The excess tritium needs to be stored for future use, which might be several years away. A safe and cost effective means for long term storage of tritium is needed. Storing tritium in a solid metal tritide is preferred to storing tritium as a gas, because a metal tritide can store tritium in a compact form and the stored tritium will not be released until heat is applied to increase its temperature to several hundred degrees centigrade. Storing tritium as a tritide is safer and more cost effective than as a gas. Several candidate metal hydride materials have been evaluated for long term tritium storage. They include uranium, La-Ni-Al alloys, zirconium and titanium. The criteria used include material cost, radioactivity, stability to air, storage capacity, storage pressure, loading and unloading conditions, and helium retention. Titanium has the best combination of properties and is recommended for long term tritium storage.

  2. A Quantitative Analysis of Factors That Influence Participation in Continuing Education among Nurses Employed in Long-Term Care Facilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Rhoda R.

    2013-01-01

    As the American population ages, the need for more long-term care services will increase. The elderly who are afflicted with a number of chronic illnesses predominantly use long-term care services. By 2020, 12 million older Americans will need long-term care services, and those 65 and older have a 40% chance of entering some type of long-term care…

  3. Stochastic recruitment leads to symmetry breaking in foraging populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; Dyson, Louise; McKane, Alan

    2014-03-01

    When an ant colony is faced with two identical equidistant food sources, the foraging ants are found to concentrate more on one source than the other. Analogous symmetry-breaking behaviours have been reported in various population systems, (such as queueing or stock market trading) suggesting the existence of a simple universal mechanism. Past studies have neglected the effect of demographic noise and required rather complicated models to qualitatively reproduce this behaviour. I will show how including the effects of demographic noise leads to a radically different conclusion. The symmetry-breaking arises solely due to the process of recruitment and ceases to occur for large population sizes. The latter fact provides a testable prediction for a real system.

  4. Coarse-grained analysis of stochastically simulated cell populations with a positive feedback genetic network architecture.

    PubMed

    Aviziotis, I G; Kavousanakis, M E; Bitsanis, I A; Boudouvis, A G

    2015-06-01

    Among the different computational approaches modelling the dynamics of isogenic cell populations, discrete stochastic models can describe with sufficient accuracy the evolution of small size populations. However, for a systematic and efficient study of their long-time behaviour over a wide range of parameter values, the performance of solely direct temporal simulations requires significantly high computational time. In addition, when the dynamics of the cell populations exhibit non-trivial bistable behaviour, such an analysis becomes a prohibitive task, since a large ensemble of initial states need to be tested for the quest of possibly co-existing steady state solutions. In this work, we study cell populations which carry the lac operon network exhibiting solution multiplicity over a wide range of extracellular conditions (inducer concentration). By adopting ideas from the so-called "equation-free" methodology, we perform systems-level analysis, which includes numerical tasks such as the computation of coarse steady state solutions, coarse bifurcation analysis, as well as coarse stability analysis. Dynamically stable and unstable macroscopic (population level) steady state solutions are computed by means of bifurcation analysis utilising short bursts of fine-scale simulations, and the range of bistability is determined for different sizes of cell populations. The results are compared with the deterministic cell population balance model, which is valid for large populations, and we demonstrate the increased effect of stochasticity in small size populations with asymmetric partitioning mechanisms. PMID:24929336

  5. A Stochastic Model for the Interbreeding of Two Populations Continuously Sharing the Same Habitat.

    PubMed

    Serva, Maurizio

    2015-12-01

    We propose and solve a stochastic mathematical model of general applicability to interbreeding populations which share the same habitat. Resources are limited so that the total population size is fixed by environmental factors. Interbreeding occurs during all the time of coexistence until one of the two population disappears by a random fluctuation. None of the two populations has a selective advantage. We answer the following questions: How long the two populations coexist and how genetically similar they become before the extinction of one of the two? how much the genetic makeup of the surviving population changes by the contribution of the disappearing one? what it is the number of interbreeding events given the observed introgression of genetic material? The model was originally motivated by a paleoanthropological problem concerning the interbreeding of Neanderthals and African modern humans in Middle East which is responsible for the fraction of Neanderthal genes (1-4%) in present Eurasian population. PMID:26585747

  6. Long-term care needs of the elderly in Korea and elderly long-term care insurance.

    PubMed

    Kim, Suk-Hee; Kim, Deok Hwan; Kim, Woong Soo

    2010-03-01

    Korea is one of the fastest-aging societies in the world. According to the Korea National Statistical Office, the number of those aged 65 years and older will dramatically increase from 9.1% in 2005 to 37.3% in 2050. It is very evident that Korea must urgently prepare itself for new times. The government insurance policy for elderly people, now called long-term care insurance, is ultimately designed for providing home- and facility-based supports to seniors with geriatric diseases and dementia, as well as for reducing the support burden on other family members. This article is to introduce the long-term care insurance of Korea and thereby to advocates the necessity of international discussion of the prospects for developing health care for aging populations; its aim is to encourage the sharing of differing national experiences concerning care for the elderly. PMID:20391260

  7. Experimental evidence of population differences in reproductive investment conditional on environmental stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Gauthey, Zoé; Panserat, Stéphane; Elosegi, Arturo; Herman, Alexandre; Tentelier, Cédric; Labonne, Jacques

    2016-01-15

    Environmental stochasticity is expected to shape life histories of species, wherein organisms subjected to strong environmental variation should display adaptive response by being able to tune their reproductive investment. For riverine ecosystems, climate models forecast an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts. The speed and the mechanisms by which organisms may adapt their reproductive investment are therefore of primary importance to understand how species will cope with such radical environmental changes. In the present study, we sampled spawners from two different populations of wild brown trout, originating from two environments with contrasting levels of flow stochasticity. We placed them in sympatry within an experimental channel during reproductive season. In one modality, water flow was maintained constant, whereas in another modality, water flow was highly variable. Reproductive investment of all individuals was monitored using weight and energetic plasma metabolite variation throughout the reproductive season. Only the populations originating from the most variable environment showed a plastic response to experimental manipulation of water flow, the females being able to reduce their weight variation (from 19.2% to 13.1%) and metabolites variations (from 84.2% to 18.6% for triglycerides for instance) under variable flow conditions. These results imply that mechanisms to cope with environmental stochasticity can differ between populations of the same species, where some populations can be plastic whereas other cannot. PMID:26406108

  8. Long-term EARLINET dust observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mona, Lucia; Amiridis, Vassilis; Amodeo, Aldo; Binietoglou, Ioannis; D'Amico, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Anja; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Papayannis, Alexandros; Sicard, Michael; Comeron, Adolfo; Pappalardo, Gelsomina

    2015-04-01

    Systematic observations of Saharan dust events over Europe are performed from May 2000 by EARLINET, the European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork. EARLINET is a coordinated network of stations that make use of advanced lidar methods for the vertical profiling of aerosols. The backbone of EARLINET network is a common schedule for performing the measurements and the quality assurance of instruments/data. Particular attention is paid to monitoring the Saharan dust intrusions over the European continent. The geographical distribution of the EARLINET stations is particularly appealing for the dust observation, with stations located all around the Mediterranean and in the center of the Mediterranean (Italian stations) where dust intrusions are frequent, and with several stations in the central Europe where dust penetrates occasionally. All aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles related to observations collected during these alerts are grouped in the devoted "Saharan dust" category of the EARLINET database. This category consists of about 4700 files (as of December 2013). Case studies involving several stations around Europe selected from this long-term database have been provided the opportunity to investigate dust modification processes during transport over the continent. More important, the long term EARLINET dust monitoring allows the investigation of the horizontal and vertical extent of dust outbreaks over Europe and the climatological analysis of dust optical intensive and extensive properties at continental scale. This long-term database is also a unique tool for a systematic comparison with dust model outputs and satellite-derived dust products. Because of the relevance for both dust modeling and satellite retrievals improvement, results about desert dust layers extensive properties as a function of season and source regions are investigated and will be presented at the conference. First comparisons with models outputs and CALIPSO dust products will be

  9. Timber beams subjected to long - term loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sógel, K.

    2010-09-01

    Wood is a significant structural material, which is often used for timber bearing structures. Elements of timber structures must especially satisfy safety requirements, which are expressed by the ultimate limit states in the established standards. The structure must also satisfy the serviceability limit states. Local and global deformations make it impossible for the structure to serve the purpose it was designed for. It is important to take the deflections and their possible increase into account in the design to provide a structure which can be used during the whole period of service. Based on earlier examinations, it is known that a timber element over the course of long-term loading shows creep behavior. The structure of wood is able to adapt to the conditions of the surrounding environment. The properties of wood are especially affected by the relative humidity of the air and then by the type, intensity and duration of the loading. The most important factors affecting the serviceability of timber structures are volume changes caused by humidity and additional deflections caused by the effects of long-term loading. These phenomena emphasize the importance of serviceability limit states for timber structures. The paper deals with a long-term experimental investigation of timber girders that are currently often used. The aim was to obtain the deflection curves and mark the time dependence and the final deflections. The paper will also define the approximations for simulating the time-dependent deflections and obtain the creep coefficients for calculating the final deflections of the girders investigated.

  10. [Long-term treatment with amiodarone].

    PubMed

    Baedeker, W; Goedel-Meinen, L; Schmidt, G; Hofmann, M; Barthel, P; Blömer, H

    1991-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and the side effects of a long-term treatment with amiodarone. We analyzed the data of 41 patients in whom amiodarone therapy had been initiated between 1974 and 1984. Twenty-one patients had dilative cardiomyopathy, 14 patients had chronic myocardial infarction, four patients suffered from WPW syndrome with intermittent atrial fibrillation, one patient had aortic valve surgery, whereas in one patient there was no clinical evidence of a heart disease. All patients had salvos of ventricular extrasystoles, ventricular tachycardia or documented intermittent ventricular fibrillation. There have been seven drop-outs up to the present time. In each patient, the lowest antiarrhythmically effective dose was applied, which was generally higher in patients with low ejection fraction. Effective treatment of the ventricular tachycardia was achieved in 55-92% of patients and did not depend on the duration of treatment. In 10 patients in whom amiodarone therapy had to be stopped for various reasons. Sudden cardiac death was slightly more frequent than in the 24 patients treated with amiodarone, though the difference was not significant. In cases with a history of syncope the prognosis was poor, even with amiodarone therapy. Due to side effects, a dosage reduction or discontinuation of amiodarone treatment became necessary in 14 patients. Amiodarone proved to be an effective drug also for the long-term treatment of ventricular tachycardia, and possibly for the prevention of sudden cardiac death. With the exception of blue skin color, there was no accumulation of side effects, even during long-term treatment of several years. PMID:1711739

  11. Long Term Archiving and CCSDS Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucon, Danièle

    This article presents some conceptual and implementation CCSDS -Consultative Committee for Space Data Systemsstandards for long term archiving. It focuses on the most recent one, the Producer Archive Interface Specification (PAIS) standard. This standard, currently available as a draft on the CCSDS web site, will be published by the beginning of 2014. It will enable the Producer to share with the Archive a sufficiently precise and unambiguous formal definition of the Digital Objects to be produced and transferred, by means of a model. It will also enable a precise definition of the packaging of these objects in the form of Submission Information Packages (SIPs), including the order in which they should be transferred.

  12. Long-Term Wind Power Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Wan, Y. H.

    2012-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory started collecting wind power data from large commercial wind power plants (WPPs) in southwest Minnesota with dedicated dataloggers and communication links in the spring of 2000. Over the years, additional WPPs in other areas were added to and removed from the data collection effort. The longest data stream of actual wind plant output is more than 10 years. The resulting data have been used to analyze wind power fluctuations, frequency distribution of changes, the effects of spatial diversity, and wind power ancillary services. This report uses the multi-year wind power data to examine long-term wind power variability.

  13. Long-term outcomes in multiple gestations.

    PubMed

    Rand, Larry; Eddleman, Keith A; Stone, Joanne

    2005-06-01

    Children born from a multiple gestation are at increased risk for cerebral palsy, learning disability, and language and neurobehavioral deficits. With the increased incidence of multiple pregnancies and use of assisted reproductive technology (ART), these issues are more commonly affecting parents. Long-term outcomes are a critical part of preconceptual and early pregnancy counseling for parents faced with a multiple gestation or considering ART, and the provider should be well versed on issues surrounding zygosity, gestational age, higher-order multiples, and the effects of options such as multifetal pregnancy reduction. PMID:15922795

  14. Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pap, J. M.

    1996-01-01

    Measurements of the solar energy throughout the solar spectrum and understanding its variability provide important information about the physical processes and structural changes in the solar interior and in the solar atmosphere...The aim of this paper is to discuss the solar-cycle-related long-term changes in solar total and UV irradiances. The spaceborne irradiance observations are compared to ground-based indices of solar magnetic activity, such as the Photometric Sunspot Index, full disk magnetic flux, and the Mt. Wilson Magnetic Plage Strength Index.

  15. Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akins, F. R.

    1979-01-01

    Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

  16. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  17. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  18. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  19. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I. A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2015-12-01

    This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  20. SLUG - stochastically lighting up galaxies - III. A suite of tools for simulated photometry, spectroscopy, and Bayesian inference with stochastic stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krumholz, Mark R.; Fumagalli, Michele; da Silva, Robert L.; Rendahl, Theodore; Parra, Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Stellar population synthesis techniques for predicting the observable light emitted by a stellar population have extensive applications in numerous areas of astronomy. However, accurate predictions for small populations of young stars, such as those found in individual star clusters, star-forming dwarf galaxies, and small segments of spiral galaxies, require that the population be treated stochastically. Conversely, accurate deductions of the properties of such objects also require consideration of stochasticity. Here we describe a comprehensive suite of modular, open-source software tools for tackling these related problems. These include the following: a greatly-enhanced version of the SLUG code introduced by da Silva et al., which computes spectra and photometry for stochastically or deterministically sampled stellar populations with nearly arbitrary star formation histories, clustering properties, and initial mass functions; CLOUDY_SLUG, a tool that automatically couples SLUG-computed spectra with the CLOUDY radiative transfer code in order to predict stochastic nebular emission; BAYESPHOT, a general-purpose tool for performing Bayesian inference on the physical properties of stellar systems based on unresolved photometry; and CLUSTER_SLUG and SFR_SLUG, a pair of tools that use BAYESPHOT on a library of SLUG models to compute the mass, age, and extinction of mono-age star clusters, and the star formation rate of galaxies, respectively. The latter two tools make use of an extensive library of pre-computed stellar population models, which are included in the software. The complete package is available at http://www.slugsps.com.

  1. Stochastic Demography and the Neutral Substitution Rate in Class-Structured Populations

    PubMed Central

    Lehmann, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate. PMID:24594520

  2. The Stochastic Evolutionary Game for a Population of Biological Networks Under Natural Selection

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bor-Sen; Ho, Shih-Ju

    2014-01-01

    In this study, a population of evolutionary biological networks is described by a stochastic dynamic system with intrinsic random parameter fluctuations due to genetic variations and external disturbances caused by environmental changes in the evolutionary process. Since information on environmental changes is unavailable and their occurrence is unpredictable, they can be considered as a game player with the potential to destroy phenotypic stability. The biological network needs to develop an evolutionary strategy to improve phenotypic stability as much as possible, so it can be considered as another game player in the evolutionary process, ie, a stochastic Nash game of minimizing the maximum network evolution level caused by the worst environmental disturbances. Based on the nonlinear stochastic evolutionary game strategy, we find that some genetic variations can be used in natural selection to construct negative feedback loops, efficiently improving network robustness. This provides larger genetic robustness as a buffer against neutral genetic variations, as well as larger environmental robustness to resist environmental disturbances and maintain a network phenotypic traits in the evolutionary process. In this situation, the robust phenotypic traits of stochastic biological networks can be more frequently selected by natural selection in evolution. However, if the harbored neutral genetic variations are accumulated to a sufficiently large degree, and environmental disturbances are strong enough that the network robustness can no longer confer enough genetic robustness and environmental robustness, then the phenotype robustness might break down. In this case, a network phenotypic trait may be pushed from one equilibrium point to another, changing the phenotypic trait and starting a new phase of network evolution through the hidden neutral genetic variations harbored in network robustness by adaptive evolution. Further, the proposed evolutionary game is extended to

  3. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

    PubMed

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-10-22

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition. PMID:23986109

  4. Long term perfusion system supporting adipogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Abbott, Rosalyn D.; Raja, Waseem K.; Wang, Rebecca Y.; Stinson, Jordan A.; Glettig, Dean L.; Burke, Kelly A.; Kaplan, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Adipose tissue engineered models are needed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms and for soft tissue regenerative strategies. Perfusion systems generate more physiologically relevant and sustainable adipose tissue models, however adipocytes have unique properties that make culturing them in a perfusion environment challenging. In this paper we describe the methods involved in the development of two perfusion culture systems (2D and 3D) to test their applicability for long term in vitro adipogenic cultures. It was hypothesized that a silk protein biomaterial scaffold would provide a 3D framework, in combination with perfusion flow, to generate a more physiologically relevant sustainable adipose tissue engineered model than 2D cell culture. Consistent with other studies evaluating 2D and 3D culture systems for adipogenesis we found that both systems successfully model adipogensis, however 3D culture systems were more robust, providing the mechanical structure required to contain the large, fragile adipocytes that were lost in 2D perfused culture systems. 3D perfusion also stimulated greater lipogenesis and lipolysis and resulted in decreased secretion of LDH compared to 2D perfusion. Regardless of culture configuration (2D or 3D) greater glycerol was secreted with the increased nutritional supply provided by perfusion of fresh media. These results are promising for adipose tissue engineering applications including long term cultures for studying disease mechanisms and regenerative approaches, where both acute (days to weeks) and chronic (weeks to months) cultivation are critical for useful insight. PMID:25843606

  5. Long Term Changes in the Polar Vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2016-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented. The unusual meteorological conditions of the 2015 south polar vortex and the 2010/11 and 2015/16 north polar vortices will be compared to other recent years.

  6. Long term changes in the polar vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2015-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented.

  7. Long-term intracranial pressure monitoring.

    PubMed

    de Jong, D A; Maas, A I; den Ouden, A H; de Lange, S A

    Continuous or intermittent measurement of intracranial pressure (ICP) is important in patients at risk for raised ICP. Indications exist for short- and long-term measurements. The various methods used for short-term monitoring are discussed with their relative advantages and disadvantages. For long-term measurements of ICP use of a completely implantable telemetric epidural pressure transducer is indicated. No such device is commercially available. We have developed an inexpensive passive telemetric transducer for this purpose. Results obtained up till now have demonstrated its reliability for measurements of two to three months duration. The life span of the device is limited by degrading of the epoxy utilized for sealing of the titanium pressure sensing part to the radiolucent ceramic cap of the transducer, causing leakage of water into the transducer and false low measurements. Because of these problems new hermetic sealing techniques were tested. Both active metal brazing and glass bonding yielded good results and hermetic sealing could be obtained. The metal to ceramic bonding presented is generally applicable within the design of implants. Besides the technical progress reported, the experience with clinical use in 12 patients is presented. PMID:6674738

  8. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-09-24

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

  9. Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

    PubMed Central

    Karachaliou, Andromachi; Conlan, Andrew J. K.; Preziosi, Marie-Pierre; Trotter, Caroline L.

    2015-01-01

    Background. The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1–29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term. Methods. We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses. Results. Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years’ average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds. Conclusions. These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac. PMID:26553693

  10. Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

    PubMed Central

    Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

  11. Managing soils for long-term productivity

    PubMed Central

    Syers, J. K.

    1997-01-01

    Meeting the goal of long-term agricultural productivity requires that soil degradation be halted and reversed. Soil fertility decline is a key factor in soil degradation and is probably the major cause of declining crop yields. There is evidence that the contribution of declining soil fertility to soil degradation has been underestimated.
    Sensitivity to soil degradation is implicit in the assessment of the sustainability of land management practices, with wide recognition of the fact that soils vary in their ability to resist change and recover subsequent to stress. The concept of resilience in relation to sustainability requires further elaboration and evaluation.
    In the context of soil degradation, a decline in soil fertility is primarily interpreted as the depletion of organic matter and plant nutrients. Despite a higher turnover rate of organic matter in the tropics there is no intrinsic difference between the organic matter content of soils from tropical and temperate regions. The level of organic matter in a soil is closely related to the above and below ground inputs. In the absence of adequate organic material inputs and where cultivation is continuous, soil organic matter declines progressively. Maintaining the quantity and quality of soil organic matter should be a guiding principle in developing management practices.
    Soil microbial biomass serves as an important reservoir of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), and regulates the cycling of organic matter and nutrients. Because of its high turnover rate, microbial biomass reacts quickly to changes in management and is a sensitive indicator for monitoring and predicting changes in soil organic matter. Modelling techniques have been reasonably successful in predicting changes in soil organic matter with different organic material inputs, but there is little information from the tropics.
    Nutrient depletion through harvested crop components and residue removal, and by leaching and soil

  12. Practical guidance for nurses caring for stoma patients with long-term conditions.

    PubMed

    Readding, Linda

    2016-02-01

    As the population ages and the number of people living with a long-term condition grows, it is likely that community nurses may be presented with increasing numbers of people requiring assessment, support, and advice for complex needs. Many of the long-term conditions affect the patient's ability to live and manage aspects of daily life independently and may affect the ability to manage a stoma. The purpose of this article is to consider how long-term conditions affect daily living and stoma care, and make practical suggestions for stoma management. Sources of further help and information for people living with a stoma (ostomates) and a long-term condition have also been included. It is hoped that by reading this article, the nurse will become more familiar with the difficulties with dexterity associated with long-term conditions experienced by ostomates, and how they can be assisted in managing and living as independently as possible. PMID:26844603

  13. [Long-term plasticity of HVC-RA synapses in adult male zebra finches].

    PubMed

    Li, Feng-Ling; Li, Dong-Feng

    2013-12-25

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is considered as a key part of the neural mechanism of learning and memory. The production of learned vocalization of male zebra finches is closely related to high vocal center (HVC)-robust nucleus of the arcopallium (RA) pathway. However, the long-term plasticity of HVC-RA synapses is unclear. This study investigated the long-term plasticity of HVC-RA synapses in adult male zebra finches through in vivo field potential recording. The results showed that physiologic stimulation, i.e., δ rhythmic stimulation and low frequency stimulation could not effectively induce long-term synaptic plasticity. The former leaded to no change of the amplitudes of evoked population spikes, and the latter induced short-term depression (STD) of the amplitudes of the second evoked population spikes caused by paired pulses. But high frequency stimulation induced long-term depression (LTD) of the amplitudes of evoked population spikes to show out long-term synaptic plasticity. These results suggest that LTD represents the long-term plasticity of HVC-RA synapses in adult male zebra finches, which may be a key part of the neural mechanism of vocal learning and memory and can explain the plasticity of adult song to some degree. PMID:24343715

  14. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgur D.

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced that follows the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed. Sara Moradi has benefited from a mobility grant funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office and the MSCA of the European Commission (FP7-PEOPLE-COFUND-2008 nº 246540).

  15. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgür D

    2015-12-01

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced following the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto-type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear, which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed. PMID:26764797

  16. Long-term U. S. energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Friesen, G.

    1984-01-01

    Each year Chase Econometrics offers its clients a brief summary of the assumptions underlying the long-term energy forecast for the U.S. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they choose to compare forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Particular emphasis is placed on Scenario B, which is the mid-range reference case. As the introduction to the supplement emphasizes, the NEPP projections should not be considered a statement of the policy goals of the Reagan Administration. They represent an analysis of the possible evolution of U.S. energy markets, given current information and existing policies. The purpose of providing Scenario B as a reference case as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand.

  17. Long-term control of root growth

    DOEpatents

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

  18. Long-term control of root growth

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, F.G.; Cataldo, D.A.; Cline, J.F.; Skiens, W.E.

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin. 7 figs.

  19. Long term thermoelectric module testing system.

    PubMed

    D'Angelo, Jonathan; Hogan, Timothy

    2009-10-01

    Thermoelectric generators can be used for converting waste heat into electric power. Significant interest in developing new materials in recent years has led to the discovery of several promising thermoelectrics, however, there can be considerable challenges in developing the materials into working devices. Testing and feedback is needed at each step to gain valuable information for identification of difficulties, quality of the materials and modules, repeatability in fabrication, and longevity of the devices. This paper describes a long-term module testing system for monitoring the output power of a module over extended testing times. To evaluate the system, we have tested commercially available thermoelectric modules over a one month time period. PMID:19895086

  20. Advanced long term cryogenic storage systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Norman S.

    1987-01-01

    Long term, cryogenic fluid storage facilities will be required to support future space programs such as the space-based Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), Telescopes, and Laser Systems. An orbital liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen storage system with an initial capacity of approximately 200,000 lb will be required. The storage facility tank design must have the capability of fluid acquisition in microgravity and limit cryogen boiloff due to environmental heating. Cryogenic boiloff management features, minimizing Earth-to-orbit transportation costs, will include advanced thick multilayer insulation/integrated vapor cooled shield concepts, low conductance support structures, and refrigeration/reliquefaction systems. Contracted study efforts are under way to develop storage system designs, technology plans, test article hardware designs, and develop plans for ground/flight testing.

  1. Withdrawal from long-term benzodiazepine treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Petursson, H; Lader, M H

    1981-01-01

    Long-term, normal-dose benzodiazepine treatment was discontinued in 16 patients who were suspected of being dependent on their medication. The withdrawal was gradual, placebo-controlled, and double-blind. All the patients experienced some form of withdrawal reaction, which ranged from anxiety and dysphoria to moderate affective and perceptual changes. Symptom ratings rose as the drugs were discontinued, but usually subsided to prewithdrawal levels over the next two to four weeks. Other features of the withdrawal included disturbance of sleep and appetite and noticeable weight loss. Electroencephalography showed appreciable reduction in fast-wave activity as the drugs were withdrawn, and an improvement in psychological performance was recorded by the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Because of the risk of dependence on benzodiazepines these agents should probably not be given as regular daily treatment for chronic anxiety. PMID:6114776

  2. Long term performance of radon mitigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Prill, R.; Fisk, W.J.

    2002-03-01

    Researchers installed radon mitigation systems in 12 houses in Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho during the heating season 1985--1986 and continued to monitor indoor radon quarterly and annually for ten years. The mitigation systems included active sub-slab ventilation, basement over-pressurization, and crawlspace isolation and ventilation. The occupants reported various operational problems with these early mitigation systems. The long-term radon measurements were essential to track the effectiveness of the mitigation systems over time. All 12 homes were visited during the second year of the study, while a second set 5 homes was visited during the fifth year to determine the cause(s) of increased radon in the homes. During these visits, the mitigation systems were inspected and measurements of system performance were made. Maintenance and modifications were performed to improve system performance in these homes.

  3. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more

  4. Managing Records for the Long Term - 12363

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, John V.; Gueretta, Jeanie

    2012-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for managing vast amounts of information documenting historical and current operations. This information is critical to the operations of the DOE Office of Legacy Management. Managing legacy records and information is challenging in terms of accessibility and changing technology. The Office of Legacy Management is meeting these challenges by making records and information management an organizational priority. The Office of Legacy Management mission is to manage DOE post-closure responsibilities at former Cold War weapons sites to ensure the future protection of human health and the environment. These responsibilities include environmental stewardship and long-term preservation and management of operational and environmental cleanup records associated with each site. A primary organizational goal for the Office of Legacy Management is to 'Preserve, Protect, and Share Records and Information'. Managing records for long-term preservation is an important responsibility. Adequate and dedicated resources and management support are required to perform this responsibility successfully. Records tell the story of an organization and may be required to defend an organization in court, provide historical information, identify lessons learned, or provide valuable information for researchers. Loss of records or the inability to retrieve records because of poor records management processes can have serious consequences and even lead to an organisation's downfall. Organizations must invest time and resources to establish a good records management program because of its significance to the organization as a whole. The Office of Legacy Management will continue to research and apply innovative ways of doing business to ensure that the organization stays at the forefront of effective records and information management. DOE is committed to preserving records that document our nation's Cold War legacy, and the Office of Legacy

  5. Long-term care: common issues and unknowns.

    PubMed

    Swartz, Katherine; Miake, Naoko; Farag, Nadine

    2012-01-01

    All industrialized countries are grappling with a common problem—how to provide assistance of various kinds to their rapidly aging populations. The problem for countries searching for models of efficient and high-quality long-term care (LTC) policies is that fewer than a dozen countries have government-organized, formal LTC policies. Relatively new surveys focused on the elderly populations of about 25 countries could become the basis for research on which LTC policy design choices have desired outcomes for individuals and society and might be replicable in other countries. As in earlier decades when U.S. researchers created the Current Population Survey (CPS) modules and the Survey of Income and Program Participation to answer policy questions, researchers and policy analysts are now at a point where a concerted effort is needed to generate questions that international comparative research on LTC could answer as well as the data needed to address the questions. PMID:22180893

  6. Stochastic modeling of aphid population growth with nonlinear, power-law dynamics.

    PubMed

    Matis, James H; Kiffe, Thomas R; Matis, Timothy I; Stevenson, Douglass E

    2007-08-01

    This paper develops a deterministic and a stochastic population size model based on power-law kinetics for the black-margined pecan aphid. The deterministic model in current use incorporates cumulative-size dependency, but its solution is symmetric. The analogous stochastic model incorporates the prolific reproductive capacity of the aphid. These models are generalized in this paper to include a delayed feedback mechanism for aphid death. Whereas the per capita aphid death rate in the current model is proportional to cumulative size, delayed feedback is implemented by assuming that the per capita rate is proportional to some power of cumulative size, leading to so-called power-law dynamics. The solution to the resulting differential equations model is a left-skewed abundance curve. Such skewness is characteristic of observed aphid data, and the generalized model fits data well. The assumed stochastic model is solved using Kolmogrov equations, and differential equations are given for low order cumulants. Moment closure approximations, which are simple to apply, are shown to give accurate predictions of the two endpoints of practical interest, namely (1) a point estimate of peak aphid count and (2) an interval estimate of final cumulative aphid count. The new models should be widely applicable to other aphid species, as they are based on three fundamental properties of aphid population biology. PMID:17306309

  7. Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality.

    PubMed

    Farmer, Robert G; Leonard, Marty L; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Anderson, Sean C

    2014-06-01

    Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario ("OBBA") and the North American Breeding Bird Survey ("BBS"), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible. PMID:25360286

  8. Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Robert G; Leonard, Marty L; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Anderson, Sean C

    2014-01-01

    Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible. PMID:25360286

  9. The long-term health of vegetarians and vegans.

    PubMed

    Appleby, Paul N; Key, Timothy J

    2016-08-01

    Vegetarians, who do not eat any meat, poultry or fish, constitute a significant minority of the world's population. Lacto-ovo-vegetarians consume dairy products and/or eggs, whereas vegans do not eat any foods derived wholly or partly from animals. Concerns over the health, environmental and economic consequences of a diet rich in meat and other animal products have focussed attention on those who exclude some or all of these foods from their diet. There has been extensive research into the nutritional adequacy of vegetarian diets, but less is known about the long-term health of vegetarians and vegans. We summarise the main findings from large cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies in western countries with a high proportion of vegetarian participants. Vegetarians have a lower prevalence of overweight and obesity and a lower risk of IHD compared with non-vegetarians from a similar background, whereas the data are equivocal for stroke. For cancer, there is some evidence that the risk for all cancer sites combined is slightly lower in vegetarians than in non-vegetarians, but findings for individual cancer sites are inconclusive. Vegetarians have also been found to have lower risks for diabetes, diverticular disease and eye cataract. Overall mortality is similar for vegetarians and comparable non-vegetarians, but vegetarian groups compare favourably with the general population. The long-term health of vegetarians appears to be generally good, and for some diseases and medical conditions it may be better than that of comparable omnivores. Much more research is needed, particularly on the long-term health of vegans. PMID:26707634

  10. Studies on canine bone marrow long-term culture: effect of stem cell factor.

    PubMed

    Neuner, E; Schumm, M; Schneider, E M; Guenther, W; Kremmer, E; Vogl, C; Büttner, M; Thierfelder, S; Kolb, H J

    1998-02-16

    Long-term culture of canine marrow cells allows in vitro studies of the hematopoietic system of the dog and characterization of early progenitor cells. Colonies of fresh marrow cells grew equally good in both agar or methylcellulose supplemented with fetal calf serum, while colonies of long-term cultures required agar-based medium containing human serum. Optimum colony growth was obtained when stem cell factor (SCF) and granulocyte-macrophage-colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) were used as growth stimuli of colony forming units (CFU). Similar results were achieved with several cell culture media. Addition of hydrocortisone to long-term cultures improved clonogenic growth of cultured cells. Addition of 2-mercaptoethanol had no effect. Strong differences were observed in long-term culture with different horse serum lots and the addition of fetal calf serum to long-term culture suppressed CFU growth of cultured cells. Recharging of cultures with fresh marrow cells on day 7 of culture improved CFU growth only in the following week but had little effect on the outcome. Adding SCF to long-term cultures led to differentiation of more primitive cells and destruction of the stromal layer. Investigation of purified and cultured cell populations was possible when preestablished long-term cultures as stromal layers were used. Loss of long-term culture-initiating ability could be demonstrated in this system with lineage negative marrow cells expanded ex vivo with SCF and GM-CSF. PMID:9613468

  11. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

    2013-01-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

  12. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian.

    PubMed

    Hossack, Blake R; Adams, Michael J; Pearl, Christopher A; Wilson, Kristine W; Bull, Evelyn L; Lohr, Kristin; Patla, Debra; Pilliod, David S; Jones, Jason M; Wheeler, Kevin K; McKay, Samuel P; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-12-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido. PMID

  13. Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

    PubMed Central

    Bliss, Timothy V.P.; Cooke, Sam F

    2011-01-01

    Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke. PMID:21779718

  14. Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

    PubMed

    Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity. PMID:27336169

  15. Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models

    PubMed Central

    Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity. PMID:27336169

  16. Prevalence and risk factors of squamous intraepithelial lesions of the cervix among HIV-infected women - a long-term follow-up study in a low-prevalence population.

    PubMed

    Lehtovirta, Päivi; Finne, Patrik; Nieminen, Pekka; Skogberg, Kirsi; Savonius, Hannele; Paavonen, Jorma; Heikinheimo, Oskari

    2006-12-01

    HIV-infected women have high risk for precancerous lesions of the uterine cervix. We studied the prevalence and risk factors of squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) among systematically followed HIV-infected women enrolled from a population with low HIV prevalence. The study population consisted of 108 HIV-infected women enrolled between 1989 and 2003 with a mean follow-up 4.4 years. Risk factors of SIL were assessed based on samples collected during 2000-02. The overall rates of atypical glandular cells of uncertain significance (AGUS), atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS), low-grade SIL (LSIL) and high-grade SIL (HSIL) were 4, 24, 15 and 5%, respectively. Reduced CD4-lymphocyte count was associated with an increased prevalence of SIL, whereas duration of HIV infection (< or > or =5 years), use of antiretroviral medication, or HIV viral load (<50 or > or =50 copies/mL) was not. The cumulative risk of developing SIL after 1 and 5 years was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7-27%) and 48% (95% CI 33-63%), respectively. The cumulative risk of SIL was increased among women younger than 31 years (P = 0.04) as well as in women displaying high initial HIV viral load (P = 0.01). Our results from a low HIV-incidence population re-emphasize the importance of guidelines for cytologic screening of HIV-seropositive women. PMID:17212861

  17. Robotics for Long-Term Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Shahin, Sarkis; Duran, Celso

    2002-07-01

    While long-term monitoring and stewardship means many things to many people, DOE has defined it as The physical controls, institutions, information, and other mechanisms needed to ensure protection of people and the environment at sites where DOE has completed or plans to complete cleanup (e.g., landfill closures, remedial actions, and facility stabilization). Across the United States, there are thousands of contaminated sites with multiple contaminants released from multiple sources where contaminants have transported and commingled. The U.S. government and U.S. industry are responsible for most of the contamination and are landowners of many of these contaminated properties. These sites must be surveyed periodically for various criteria including structural deterioration, water intrusion, integrity of storage containers, atmospheric conditions, and hazardous substance release. The surveys, however, are intrusive, time-consuming, and expensive and expose survey personnel to radioactive contamination. In long-term monitoring, there's a need for an automated system that will gather and report data from sensors without costly human labor. In most cases, a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) unit is used to collect and report data from a remote location. A SCADA unit consists of an embedded computer with data acquisition capabilities. The unit can be configured with various sensors placed in different areas of the site to be monitored. A system of this type is static, i.e., the sensors, once placed, cannot be moved to other locations within the site. For those applications where the number of sampling locations would require too many sensors, or where exact location of future problems is unknown, a mobile sensing platform is an ideal solution. In many facilities that undergo regular inspections, the number of video cameras and air monitors required to eliminate the need for human inspections is very large and far too costly. HCET's remote harsh

  18. LONG-TERM MONITORING SENSOR NETWORK

    SciTech Connect

    Stephen P. Farrington; John W. Haas; Neal Van Wyck

    2003-10-16

    Long-term monitoring (LTM) associated with subsurface contamination sites is a key element of Long Term Stewardship and Legacy Management across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex. However, both within the DOE and elsewhere, LTM is an expensive endeavor, often exceeding the costs of the remediation phase of a clean-up project. The primary contributors to LTM costs are associated with labor. Sample collection, storage, preparation, analysis, and reporting can add a significant financial burden to project expense when extended over many years. Development of unattended, in situ monitoring networks capable of providing quantitative data satisfactory to regulatory concerns has the potential to significantly reduce LTM costs. But survival and dependable operation in a difficult environment is a common obstacle to widespread use across the DOE complex or elsewhere. Deploying almost any sensor in the subsurface for extended periods of time will expose it to chemical and microbial degradation. Over the time-scales required for in situ LTM, even the most advanced sensor systems may be rendered useless. Frequent replacement or servicing (cleaning) of sensors is expensive and labor intensive, offsetting most, if not all, of the cost savings realized with unattended, in situ sensors. To enable facile, remote monitoring of contaminants and other subsurface parameters over prolonged periods, Applied Research Associates, Inc has been working to develop an advanced LTM sensor network consisting of three key elements: (1) an anti-fouling sensor chamber that can accommodate a variety of chemical and physical measurement devices based on electrochemical, optical and other techniques; (2) two rapid, cost effective, and gentle means of emplacing sensor packages either at precise locations directly in the subsurface or in pre-existing monitoring wells; and (3) a web browser-based data acquisition and control system (WebDACS) utilizing field-networked microprocessor-controlled smart

  19. Treatment for childhood cancer -- long-term risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... ency/patientinstructions/000849.htm Treatment for childhood cancer - long-term risks To use the sharing features on ... has. Being aware of your child's risk of long-term health problems can help you follow-up ...

  20. Reconstructing the Phylogenetic History of Long-Term Effective Population Size and Life-History Traits Using Patterns of Amino Acid Replacement in Mitochondrial Genomes of Mammals and Birds

    PubMed Central

    Nabholz, Benoit; Lartillot, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The nearly neutral theory, which proposes that most mutations are deleterious or close to neutral, predicts that the ratio of nonsynonymous over synonymous substitution rates (dN/dS), and potentially also the ratio of radical over conservative amino acid replacement rates (Kr/Kc), are negatively correlated with effective population size. Previous empirical tests, using life-history traits (LHT) such as body-size or generation-time as proxies for population size, have been consistent with these predictions. This suggests that large-scale phylogenetic reconstructions of dN/dS or Kr/Kc might reveal interesting macroevolutionary patterns in the variation in effective population size among lineages. In this work, we further develop an integrative probabilistic framework for phylogenetic covariance analysis introduced previously, so as to estimate the correlation patterns between dN/dS, Kr/Kc, and three LHT, in mitochondrial genomes of birds and mammals. Kr/Kc displays stronger and more stable correlations with LHT than does dN/dS, which we interpret as a greater robustness of Kr/Kc, compared with dN/dS, the latter being confounded by the high saturation of the synonymous substitution rate in mitochondrial genomes. The correlation of Kr/Kc with LHT was robust when controlling for the potentially confounding effects of nucleotide compositional variation between taxa. The positive correlation of the mitochondrial Kr/Kc with LHT is compatible with previous reports, and with a nearly neutral interpretation, although alternative explanations are also possible. The Kr/Kc model was finally used for reconstructing life-history evolution in birds and mammals. This analysis suggests a fairly large-bodied ancestor in both groups. In birds, life-history evolution seems to have occurred mainly through size reduction in Neoavian birds, whereas in placental mammals, body mass evolution shows disparate trends across subclades. Altogether, our work represents a further step toward a more

  1. Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

    PubMed Central

    Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  2. Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

    PubMed

    Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  3. Long-term corrosion testing pan.

    SciTech Connect

    Wall, Frederick Douglas; Brown, Neil R.

    2008-08-01

    This document describes the testing and facility requirements to support the Yucca Mountain Project long-term corrosion testing needs. The purpose of this document is to describe a corrosion testing program that will (a) reduce model uncertainty and variability, (b) reduce the reliance upon overly conservative assumptions, and (c) improve model defensibility. Test matrices were developed for 17 topical areas (tasks): each matrix corresponds to a specific test activity that is a subset of the total work performed in a task. A future document will identify which of these activities are considered to be performance confirmation activities. Detailed matrices are provided for FY08, FY09 and FY10 and rough order estimates are provided for FY11-17. Criteria for the selection of appropriate test facilities were developed through a meeting of Lead Lab and DOE personnel on October 16-17, 2007. These criteria were applied to the testing activities and recommendations were made for the facility types appropriate to carry out each activity. The facility requirements for each activity were assessed and activities were identified that can not be performed with currently available facilities. Based on this assessment, a total of approximately 10,000 square feet of facility space is recommended to meet all future testing needs, given that all testing is consolidated to a single location. This report is a revision to SAND2007-7027 to address DOE comments and add a series of tests to address NWTRB recommendations.

  4. Long-term corrosion testing plan.

    SciTech Connect

    Wall, Frederick Douglas; Brown, Neil R.

    2009-02-01

    This document describes the testing and facility requirements to support the Yucca Mountain Project long-term corrosion testing program. The purpose of this document is to describe a corrosion testing program that will (a) reduce model uncertainty and variability, (b) reduce the reliance upon overly conservative assumptions, and (c) improve model defensibility. Test matrices were developed for 17 topical areas (tasks): each matrix corresponds to a specific test activity that is a subset of the total work performed in a task. A future document will identify which of these activities are considered to be performance confirmation activities. Detailed matrices are provided for FY08, FY09 and FY10 and rough order estimates are provided for FY11-17. Criteria for the selection of appropriate test facilities were developed through a meeting of Lead Lab and DOE personnel on October 16-17, 2007. These criteria were applied to the testing activities and recommendations were made for the facility types appropriate to carry out each activity. The facility requirements for each activity were assessed and activities were identified that can not be performed with currently available facilities. Based on this assessment, a total of approximately 10,000 square feet of facility space is recommended to accommodate all future testing, given that all testing is consolidated to a single location. This report is a revision to SAND2008-4922 to address DOE comments.

  5. Transuranic waste: long-term planning

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K.C.

    1985-07-01

    Societal concerns for the safe handling and disposal of toxic waste are behind many of the regulations and the control measures in effect today. Transuranic waste, a specific category of toxic (radioactive) waste, serves as a good example of how regulations and controls impact changes in waste processing - and vice versa. As problems would arise with waste processing, changes would be instituted. These changes improved techniques for handling and disposal of transuranic waste, reduced the risk of breached containment, and were usually linked with regulatory changes. Today, however, we face a greater public awareness of and concern for toxic waste control; thus, we must anticipate potential problems and work on resolving them before they can become real problems. System safety analyses are valuable aids in long-term planning for operations involving transuranic as well as other toxic materials. Examples of specific system safety analytical methods demonstrate how problems can be anticipated and resolution initiated in a timely manner having minimal impacts upon allocation of resource and operational goals. 7 refs., 1 fig.

  6. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  7. [Long term adherence to HAART in Senegal].

    PubMed

    Bastard, M; Fall, M Basty Koita

    2014-10-01

    Adherence is one of the main predictors of antiretroviral treatment success. A governmental initiative was launched in 1998 for HIV-infected patients in Senegal to provide access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Adherence measurements, defined as pills taken/pills prescribed, were assessed between November 1999 and June 2010 using a pill count along with a questionnaire for 330 patients. Predictors of adherence and identification of adherence trajectories were explored through latent class mixed model. We also performed a survival analysis using Cox proportional hazard model. Three adherence behaviours were revealed as well as a better adherence for women. A third of patients had a high adherence trajectory over time and a third had an intermediate one. Male gender and low adherence behaviour over time were independently associated with a higher mortality rate. This study shows that an overall good adherence can be obtained in the long term in Senegal, suggests a better adherence for women and points out a large subsample of patients with intermediate level of adherence behaviour who are at risk for developing resistance to antiretroviral drugs. PMID:24615434

  8. Long-term outcome in aqueductal stenosis.

    PubMed

    Villani, R; Tomei, G; Gaini, S M; Grimoldi, N; Spagnoli, D; Bello, L

    1995-03-01

    In this study, 78 patients with aqueductal stenosis were submitted to detailed neurodevelopmental assessment with a follow-up of 5-25 years. Sixty-eight percent of patients were categorized as normal; they either attended normal school courses or had regular jobs. Among these, 34% had some motor abnormalities (ataxia, mild hemiparesis, visual disturbances). Twenty-four percent (19 cases) were moderately disabled (trainable retardation) and 8% (6 cases) were severely handicapped. Epilepsy was observed in 13% of the cases. Incidence of recurrent and generalized seizures paralleled neurodevelopmental outcome (5% in normal, 16% in moderately disabled and 50% in severely disabled patients). Endocrine dysfunctions were evident in 28% of the cases and were characterized by precocious or delayed puberty, amenorrhea and somatic underdevelopment. No patient with ventricular enlargement and a cortical mantle width below 20 mm showed a good outcome. Large ventricles were compatible with normal mental development when compensated with a corresponding cranial vault enlargement. In patients with normal mental status and motor abnormalities, long-term CT scan findings revealed the presence of focal brain abnormalities (poroencephaly, brain atrophy, calcifications, extracerebral collections). PMID:7773981

  9. Alpine Soils as long-term Bioindicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nestroy, O.

    2009-04-01

    Alpine soils as long-term bioindicators The introductory words concern the definitions and peculiarities of alpine soils and their position in the Austrian Soil Classification 2000 in comparison with the World Reference Base for Soil Resources 2006. The important parameters for genesis and threats for these soils in steep and high positions are discussed. It must be emphasized that the main threats are the very different kinds of erosion e.g. by water, wind and snow, and also by skiing (end of season) as well as and mountain-biking (mainly summer-sport). Due the very slow regeneration and - in this connection - due to the very slow changes of the soil entities, these soils give an utmost importance as a long-time bioindicator. With regard to the climate change one can assume an increase in the content of organic matter on site, but also an increase of erosion and mass movement on the other site, e. g. in kind of "plaiken" (soil slide) as result of an increasing intensity of rainfall. It lies partly in our hands to diminish the number and the intensity of the threats, we can influence the soil development, but the result to reach a new ecological equilibrium is very long - in case of alpine soil more than two generations.

  10. Neurological long term consequences of deep diving.

    PubMed Central

    Todnem, K; Nyland, H; Skeidsvoll, H; Svihus, R; Rinck, P; Kambestad, B K; Riise, T; Aarli, J A

    1991-01-01

    Forty commercial saturation divers, mean age 34.9 (range 24-49) years, were examined one to seven years after their last deep dive (190-500 metres of seawater). Four had by then lost their divers' licence because of neurological problems. Twenty seven (68%) had been selected by neurological examination and electroencephalography before the deep dives. The control group consisted of 100 men, mean age 34.0 (range 22-48) years. The divers reported significantly more symptoms from the nervous system. Concentration difficulties and paraesthesia in feet and hands were common. They had more abnormal neurological findings by neurological examination compatible with dysfunction in the lumbar spinal cord or roots. They also had a larger proportion of abnormal electroencephalograms than the controls. The neurological symptoms and findings were highly significantly correlated with exposure to deep diving (depth included), but even more significantly correlated to air and saturation diving and prevalence of decompression sickness. Visual evoked potentials, brainstem auditory evoked potentials, and magnetic resonance imaging of the brain did not show more abnormal findings in the divers. Four (10%) divers had had episodes of cerebral dysfunction during or after the dives; two had had seizures, one had had transitory cerebral ischaemia and one had had transitory global amnesia. It is concluded that deep diving may have a long term effect on the nervous system of the divers. PMID:2025592

  11. The long-term variability of Vega

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butkovskaya, V.; Plachinda, S.; Valyavin, G.; Baklanova, D.; Lee, B.-C.

    2011-12-01

    Over the time of 60 years Vega (α Lyrae = HD 172167, A0V) has been generally accepted as a standard star in the near-infrared, optical, and ultraviolet regions. But is the spectrophotometric standard Vega really non-variable star? Researchers give very different answers to this question. We aim to search a periodicity in our results of spectropolarimetric study of Vega, namely periodic variations in equivalent width of the spectral lines and longitudinal magnetic field measurements. High-accuracy spectropolarimetric observations of Vega have been performed during 26 nights from 1997 to 2010 using the Coudé spectrograph of the 2.6-m Shain reflector at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (CrAO, Ukraine) and during 4 nights in 2007 and 2008 using the echelle spectrograph BOES at the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory (BOAO, South Korea). The long-term (year-to-year) variability of Vega was confirmed. It was concluded that this variability does not have magnetic nature. The paper is dedicated to the memory of V.P. Merezhin.

  12. Long-term intraperitoneal insulin delivery.

    PubMed Central

    Pitt, H A; Saudek, C D; Zacur, H A

    1992-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, 21 patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus have been managed at the Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions with variable rate, remotely controlled implanted insulin pumps. To date, nearly 70 patient-years of experience has been gained with intraperitoneal delivery of a new U-400 insulin with a surfactant. All 21 patients are alive after a mean of 39.3 months (range, 10 to 65 months) after insulin pump implantation. Nineteen of the 21 patients remain on intraperitoneal insulin, for a 5-year actuarial system survival of 90%. Glucose control was improved, especially during the first 16 months after pump implantation, without an increased incidence of severe hypoglycemia. Catheter blockage has been a significant problem, occurring in nine of the 21 patients (43%). Catheter occlusion has been successfully managed, however, with laparoscopic repair in seven of 10 attempts or with catheter change in four of five patients. Nevertheless, quality of life and patient acceptance remain excellent. Moreover, pre-existing nephropathy, neuropathy, and retinopathy have been surprisingly stable. With an aggressive policy of catheter change or laparoscopic clearance of catheter blockage, long-term intraperitoneal insulin delivery is now a safe and effective treatment for type I diabetics. PMID:1417197

  13. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. PMID:11607658

  14. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  15. Long-term adequacy of metal resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Singer, D.A.

    1977-01-01

    Although the earth's crust contains vast quantities of metals, extraction technologies and associated costs are inextricably bound to three fundamental geological factors - the amount of metal available in the earth's crust in each range of grades, the mineralogical form and chemical state of the metal, and the spatial distribution of the metal. The energy required to recover a given amount of metal increases substantially as grade declines. Most metal is produced from sulphide or oxide minerals, whereas most metal in the crust may be locked in the structures of the more refractory silicates. Recovery from silicate minerals could require orders of magnitude more energy than that used at present as also could exploitation of small, widely scattered or thin, deeply buried deposits. Although specific information on the fundamental factors is not available, each factor must in turn tend to further restrict exploitation. Independence of average grade and tonnage for many deposit types further reduces the availability of rock as a source of metal. In the long term, effects of these factors will be large increases in price for many metals. ?? 1977.

  16. Long Term Storage of Lyophilized Liposomal Formulations

    PubMed Central

    Payton, N.M.; Wempe, M.F.; Xu, Y.; Anchordoquy, T.J.

    2014-01-01

    Because aqueous liposomal formulations containing multiply unsaturated lipids are susceptible to chemical degradation, these formulations are often lyophilized. Despite their limited chemical stability, interest in the use of multiply unsaturated lipids to promote intracellular delivery has increased considerably in recent years. The goal of the current study was to examine the long term storage stability of lyophilized formulations containing lipids with increasing levels of unsaturation, and various strategies which can be employed to improve stability. Aqueous lipid-trehalose formulations containing 1,2-dilinolenoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DLPC), 1,2-dilinoleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DLinPC) or 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DOPC) were lyophilized and stored at temperatures ranging from 4°C to 60°C. We observed that the lipid degradation rate increased as the storage temperature and unsaturation level were increased. Even the cleanest sugars which are available commercially contain iron contaminants, and it was observed that the chelation of these iron contaminants significantly improved the stability of DLPC during storage. However, the glass transition temperature of the sugar which was included in the formulation, the reduction of the oxygen in the aqueous sample prior to lyophilization, the inclusion of helper lipids (i.e., cholesterol), and the rate of freezing did not significantly improve stability. PMID:25308534

  17. 22 CFR 228.12 - Long-term leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Long-term leases. 228.12 Section 228.12 Foreign... Transactions for USAID Financing § 228.12 Long-term leases. Any commodity obtained under a long-term lease..., a long-term lease is defined as a single lease of more than 180 days, or repetitive or...

  18. 22 CFR 228.12 - Long-term leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Long-term leases. 228.12 Section 228.12 Foreign... Transactions for USAID Financing § 228.12 Long-term leases. Any commodity obtained under a long-term lease..., a long-term lease is defined as a single lease of more than 180 days, or repetitive or...

  19. Long-term change in the megabenthos of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (NE Atlantic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billett, D. S. M.; Bett, B. J.; Rice, A. L.; Thurston, M. H.; Galéron, J.; Sibuet, M.; Wolff, G. A.

    A radical change in the abundance of invertebrate megafauna on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain is reported over a period of 10 years (1989-1999). Actiniarians, annelids, pycnogonids, tunicates, ophiuroids and holothurians increased significantly in abundance. However, there was no significant change in wet weight biomass. Two holothurian species, Amperima rosea and Ellipinion molle, increased in abundance by more than two orders of magnitude. Samples from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain over a longer period (1977-1999) show that prior to 1996 these holothurian species were always a minor component of the megafauna. From 1996 to 1999 A. rosea was abundant over a wide area of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain indicating that the phenomenon was not a localised event. Several dominant holothurian species show a distinct trend in decreasing body size over the study period. The changes in megafauna abundance may be related to environmental forcing (food supply) rather than to localised stochastic population variations. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in organic matter supply to the seabed may be responsible for the observed changes in abundance, species dominance and size distributions.

  20. 26 CFR 1.460-1 - Long-term contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Long-term contracts. 1.460-1 Section 1.460-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Taxable Year for Which Items of Gross Income Included § 1.460-1 Long-term... the manufacture, building, installation, or construction of property is a long-term contract...

  1. 22 CFR 228.18 - Long-term leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Long-term leases. 228.18 Section 228.18 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES FOR PROCUREMENT OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY... USAID Financing § 228.18 Long-term leases. Any commodity obtained under a long-term lease agreement...

  2. 26 CFR 1.460-1 - Long-term contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Long-term contracts. 1.460-1 Section 1.460-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Taxable Year for Which Items of Gross Income Included § 1.460-1 Long-term... the manufacture, building, installation, or construction of property is a long-term contract...

  3. 22 CFR 228.18 - Long-term leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Long-term leases. 228.18 Section 228.18 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES FOR PROCUREMENT OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY... USAID Financing § 228.18 Long-term leases. Any commodity obtained under a long-term lease agreement...

  4. 26 CFR 1.460-1 - Long-term contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Long-term contracts. 1.460-1 Section 1.460-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Taxable Year for Which Items of Gross Income Included § 1.460-1 Long-term... the manufacture, building, installation, or construction of property is a long-term contract...

  5. 17 CFR 256.224 - Other long-term debt.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Other long-term debt. 256.224 Section 256.224 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (CONTINUED) UNIFORM... COMPANY ACT OF 1935 6. Long-Term Debt § 256.224 Other long-term debt. This account shall include all...

  6. 17 CFR 256.224 - Other long-term debt.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Other long-term debt. 256.224 Section 256.224 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (CONTINUED) UNIFORM... COMPANY ACT OF 1935 6. Long-Term Debt § 256.224 Other long-term debt. This account shall include all...

  7. 22 CFR 228.18 - Long-term leases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Long-term leases. 228.18 Section 228.18 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES FOR PROCUREMENT OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY... USAID Financing § 228.18 Long-term leases. Any commodity obtained under a long-term lease agreement...

  8. 3 CFR - Long-Term Gulf Coast Restoration Support Plan

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 3 The President 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Long-Term Gulf Coast Restoration Support Plan Presidential Documents Other Presidential Documents Memorandum of June 30, 2010 Long-Term Gulf Coast... help the Gulf Coast and its people recover from this tragedy. A long-term plan to restore the...

  9. 78 FR 36449 - State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-18

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Administration on Aging 45 CFR Parts 1321 and 1327 RIN 0985-AA08 State Long-Term Care... request for comments, to implement provisions of the Older Americans Act, the State Long-Term Care... determining State compliance in carrying out the Long-Term Care Ombudsman program functions. This...

  10. Global Horizontal Irradiance Anomalies in Long Term Series Over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cony, Marco; Liria, Juan; Weisenberg, Ralf; Serrano, Enrique

    2014-05-01

    India has a high potential for solar energy applications due to its geographic position within the Sun Belt and the large number of cloudless days in many regions of the country. However, certain regions of India, particularly those largely populated, can exhibit large aerosol loading in the atmosphere as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions that could have a negative feedback in the solar resource potential. This effect, named as solar dimming, has already been observed in India, and in some other regions in the world, by some authors using ground data from the last two decades. The recent interest in the promotion of solar energy applications in India highlights the need of extending and improving the knowledge of the solar radiation resources in this country, since most of the long term measurements available correspond to global horizontal radiation (GHI) and most of them are also located big cities or highly populated areas. In addition, accurate knowledge on the aerosol column quantification and on its dynamical behavior with high spatial resolution is particularly important in the case of India, due to their impact on direct normal irradiation. Long term studies of solar irradiation over India can be performed using monthly means of GHI measurements from the Indian Meteorological Department. Ground data are available from 1964 till today through the World Radiation Data Centre that publish these values in the web. This work shows a long term analysis of GHI using anomalies techniques over ten different sites over India. Besides, techniques of linear trends have been applied for to show the evolution over this period. The analysis of anomalies has also found two periods of different behavior. From 1964 till 1988 the anomalies observed were positive and the last 20 years seems to be a period of negative anomalies. The results exhibit a decreasing trend and negative anomalies confirming thus the darkening effect already reported by solar dimming studies

  11. Evolution of Compact Binary Populations in Globular Clusters: A Boltzmann Study. II. Introducing Stochasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Sambaran; Ghosh, Pranab

    2008-06-01

    We continue the exploration that we began in Paper I of using the Boltzmann scheme to study the evolution of compact binary populations of globular clusters, introducing in this paper our method of handling the stochasticity inherent in the dynamical processes of binary formation, destruction, and hardening in globular clusters. We describe these stochastic processes as "Wiener processes," whereupon the Boltzmann equation becomes a stochastic partial differential equation, the solution of which involves the use of "Itō calculus" (this use being the first, to our knowledge, in this subject), in addition to ordinary calculus. As in Paper I, we focus on the evolution of (1) the number of X-ray binaries NXB in globular clusters and (2) the orbital period distribution of these binaries. We show that, although the details of the fluctuations in the above quantities differ from one "realization" to another of the stochastic processes, the general trends follow those found in the continuous-limit study of Paper I, and the average result over many such realizations is very close to the continuous-limit result. We investigate the dependence of NXB found by these calculations on two essential globular cluster properties, namely, the star-star and star-binary encounter rate parameters Γ and γ, for which we coined the name "Verbunt parameters" in Paper I. We compare our computed results with those from Chandra observations of Galactic globular clusters, showing that the expected scalings of NXB with the Verbunt parameters are in good agreement with those observed. We indicate additional features that can be incorporated into the scheme in the future, as well as how more elaborate problems can be tackled.

  12. Long-term garlic or micronutrient supplementation, but not anti-Helicobacter pylori therapy, increases serum folate or glutathione without affecting serum vitamin B-12 or homocysteine in a rural Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yujue; Zhang, Lian; Moslehi, Roxana; Ma, Junling; Pan, Kaifeng; Zhou, Tong; Liu, Weidong; Brown, Linda Morris; Hu, Yuangreng; Pee, David; Gail, Mitchell H; You, Weicheng

    2009-01-01

    The effects of a 7.3-y supplementation with garlic and micronutrients and of anti-Helicobacter pylori treatment with amoxicillin (1 g twice daily) and omeprazole (20 mg twice daily) on serum folate, vitamin B-12, homocysteine, and glutathione concentrations were assessed in a rural Chinese population. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, factorial trial was conducted to compare the ability of 3 treatments to retard the development of precancerous gastric lesions in 3411 subjects. The treatments were: 1) anti-H. pylori treatment with amoxicillin and omeprazole; 2) 7.3-y supplementation with aged garlic and steam-distilled garlic oil; and 3) 7.3-y supplementation with vitamin C, vitamin E, and selenium. All 3 treatments were given in a 2(3) factorial design to subjects seropositive for H. pylori infection; only the garlic supplement and vitamin and selenium supplement were given in a 2(2) factorial design to the other subjects. Thirty-four subjects were randomly selected from each of the 12 treatment strata. Sera were analyzed after 7.3 y to measure effects on folate, vitamin B-12, homocysteine, and glutathione concentrations. Regression analyses adjusted for age, gender, and smoking indicated an increase of 10.2% (95%CI: 2.9-18.1%) in serum folate after garlic supplementation and an increase of 13.4% (95%CI: 5.3-22.2%) in serum glutathione after vitamin and selenium supplementation. The vitamin and selenium supplement did not affect other analytes and the amoxicillin and omeprazole therapy did not affect any of the variables tested. In this rural Chinese population, 7.3 y of garlic supplementation increased the serum folate concentration and the vitamin and selenium supplement increased that of glutathione, but neither affected serum concentrations of vitamin B-12 or homocysteine. PMID:19056661

  13. Long term consequences of the female athlete triad.

    PubMed

    Thein-Nissenbaum, Jill

    2013-06-01

    In the past 40 years, female sports participation, particularly at the high school level, has significantly increased. Physical activity in females has numerous positive benefits, including improved body image and overall health. Unfortunately, a select population of exercising females may experience symptoms related to the female athlete triad, which refers to the interrelatedness of energy availability, menstrual function, and bone mineral density. Clinically, these conditions can manifest as disordered eating behaviors, menstrual irregularity, and stress fractures. Triad symptoms are distributed along a spectrum between optimal health and disease; all of the components of the triad may not be affected simultaneously. The female athlete triad was first identified in 1992. Since that time, a vast amount of research related to the identification, management and prevention of this condition has been published. More recently, research related to the long term effects of triad components has come into light. Women who were diagnosed with female athlete triad syndrome as adolescents and young adults in the 1990s are now in their 30s and 40s; negative long term effects of the female athlete triad, such as low bone mineral density, are now starting to manifest. Women of all ages should be assessed for triad components during routine annual physical examinations; appropriate measures to treat any current triad components should be implemented. In addition, women in their 30s, 40s and early 50s should be screened for a history of the female athlete triad. Multidisciplinary management of these conditions is strongly recommended. PMID:23541905

  14. Long-term memory of heterospecific vocalizations by African lions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinnell, Jon; van Dyk, Gus; Slotow, Rob

    2005-09-01

    Animals that use and evaluate long-distance signals have the potential to glean valuable information about others in their environment via eavesdropping. In those areas where they coexist, African lions (Panthera leo) are a significant eavesdropper on spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), often using hyena vocalizations to locate and scavenge from hyena kills. This relationship was used to test African lions' long-term memory of the vocalizations of spotted hyenas via playback experiments. Hyena whoops and a control sound (Canis lupus howls) were played to three populations of lions in South Africa: (1) lions with past experience of spotted hyenas; (2) lions with current experience; and (3) lions with no experience. The results strongly suggest that lions have the cognitive ability to remember the vocalizations of spotted hyenas even after 10 years with no contact of any kind with them. Such long-term memory of heterospecific vocalizations may be widespread in species that gain fitness benefits from eavesdropping on others, but where such species are sympatric and often interact it may pass unrecognized as short-term memory instead.

  15. Improving Population-Level Maternal Health: A Hard Nut to Crack? Long Term Findings and Reflections on a 16-Community Randomised Trial in Australia to Improve Maternal Emotional and Physical Health after Birth [ISRCTN03464021

    PubMed Central

    Small, Rhonda; Watson, Lyndsey; Gunn, Jane; Mitchell, Creina; Brown, Stephanie

    2014-01-01

    Background Community level interventions to improve maternal and child health have been supported and well evaluated in resource poor settings, but less so in developed countries. PRISM - Program of Resources, Information and Support for Mothers - was a primary care and community-based cluster-randomised trial in sixteen municipalities in Victoria, Australia, which aimed to reduce depression in mothers and improve their physical health. The aim of this paper is to report the longer term outcomes of PRISM and to reflect on lessons learned from this universal community intervention to improve maternal health. Methods Maternal health outcome data in PRISM were collected by postal questionnaire at six months and two years. At two years, the main outcome measures included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the SF-36. Secondary outcome measures included the Experience of Motherhood Scale (EOM) and the Parenting Stress Index (PSI). A primary intention to treat analysis was conducted, adjusting for the randomisation by cluster. Results 7,169/18,424 (39%) women responded to the postal questionnaire at two years −3,894 (40%) in the intervention arm and 3,275 (38%) in the comparison arm. Respondents were mostly representative on available population data comparisons. There were no differences in depression prevalence (EPDS≥13) between the intervention and comparison arms (13.4% vs 13.1%; ORadj = 1.06, 95%CI 0.91–1.24). Nor did women's mental health (MCS: 48.6 vs 49.1) or physical health scores (PCS: 49.1 vs 49.0) on the SF-36 differ between the trial arms. Conclusion Improvement in maternal mental and physical health outcomes at the population level in the early years after childbirth remains a largely unmet challenge. Despite the lack of effectiveness of PRISM intervention strategies, important lessons about systems change, sustained investment and contextual understanding of the workability of intervention strategies can be drawn from the

  16. A new long-term care manifesto.

    PubMed

    Kane, Robert L

    2015-04-01

    This article argues for a fresh look at how we provide long-term care (LTC) for older persons. Essentially, LTC offers a compensatory service that responds to frailty. Policy debate around LTC centers on costs, but we are paying for something we really don't want. Building societal enthusiasm (or even support) for LTC will require re-inventing and re-branding. LTC has three basic components: personal care, housing, and health care (primarily chronic disease management). They can be delivered in a variety of settings. It is rare to find all three done well simultaneously. Personal care (PC) needs to be both competent and compassionate. Housing must provide at least minimal amenities and foster autonomy; when travel time for PC raises costs dramatically, some form of clustered housing may be needed. Health care must be proactive, aimed at preventing exacerbations of chronic disease and resultant hospitalizations. Enhancing preferences means allowing taking informed risks. Payment incentives should reward both quality of care and quality of life, but positive outcomes must be defined as slowing decline. Paying for services but not for housing under Medicaid would automatically level the playing field between nursing homes (NH) and community-based services. Regulations should achieve greater parity between NH and community care and include both positive and negative feedback. Providing post-acute care should be separate from LTC. Using the tripartite LTC framework, we can create innovative flexible approaches to providing needed services for frail older persons in formats that are both desirable and affordable. Such care will be more socially desirable and hence worth paying for. PMID:26035606

  17. Long-term Behavior of DNAPL Residuals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Illangasekare, T.; Kitanidis, P. K.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding and being able to predict the long-term behavior of DNAPL (i.e., TCE) residuals in the source zone are significant in the evaluation of plume spreading. We apply both theoretical analysis and pore-scale simulations to investigate the mass transfer and the effect of reductive dechlorination, in which the contaminant behaves as electron acceptor. At the upfront of the source zone, where the boundary layer has not fully developed, the mass transfer increases as a power-law function of the Peclet number, and is enhanced by biodegradation. These results are consistent with past findings. Under certain conditions, further downstream inside the source zone, the rate of dissolution is slower due to the diluted mass from upstream. Widely applied first-order biodegradation implicitly assumes that the reaction solely depends on the concentration of the contaminant. However, in the slow dilution region, the limitation of electron donor on biodegradation is not negligible. For the reaction between an electron donor and an electron acceptor with intrinsic second-order kinetics, the late-time bio-reaction demonstrates a first-order decay macroscopically with respect to the mass of electron donor, not with respect to that of the contaminant. The late-time decay rate only depends on the intrinsic rate and the solubility of the contaminant. During the intermediate time, affecting by both the concentrations of electron donor and electron acceptor, the first-order decay is not valid. We show that the electron donor decays as exp(-t^2), instead of exp(-t). Moreover, the intermediate-time decay rate is a function of the spatial distribution of DNAPL residuals and the initial conditions.he relationship of the Sherwood number and Peclet number (Comparison of pore-scale simulations and best-fitting curve) he decay of electron donor as a function of t^2

  18. LONG TERM IN SITU DISPOSAL ENGINEERING STUDY

    SciTech Connect

    ADAMS; CARLSON; BROCKMAN

    2003-07-23

    Patent application pulled per Ken Norris (FH General Counsel). The objective of this study is to devise methods, produce conceptual designs, examine and select alternatives, and estimate costs for the demonstration of long-term (300-year) in situ disposal of an existing waste disposal site. The demonstration site selected is the 216-A-24 Crib near the 200 East Area. The site contains a fission product inventory and has experienced plant, animal, and inadvertent than intrusion. Of the potential intrusive events and transport pathways at the site, potential human intrusion has been given primary consideration in barrier design. Intrusion by wind, plants, and animals has been given secondary consideration. Groundwater modeling for a number of barrier configurations has been carried out to help select a barrier that will minimize water infiltration and waste/water contact time. The estimated effective lifetime and cost of 20 barrier schemes, using a variety of materials, have been evaluated. The schemes studied include single component surface barriers, multicomponent barriers, and massively injected grout barriers. Five barriers with high estimated effective lifetimes and relatively low costs have been selected for detailed evaluation. They are basalt riprap barriers, massive soil barriers, salt basin barriers, multi-component fine/coarse barriers, and cemented basalt barriers. A variety of materials and configurations for marking the site have also been considered. A decision analysis was completed to select a barrier scheme for demonstration. The analysis indicated that the basalt riprap alternative would be the preferred choice for a full-scale demonstration. The recommended approach is to demonstrate the basalt riprap barrier at the 216-A-24 Crib as soon as possible. Methods and costs of assessing effectiveness of the demonstration are also described. Preliminary design modifications and costs for applying the five selected barrier schemes to other site types are

  19. De novo recruitment of antigen-experienced and naïve T cells contributes to the long term maintenance of anti-viral T cell populations in the persistently infected CNS

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Jingxian; Zhao, Jincun; Perlman, Stanley

    2010-01-01

    Mice infected with attenuated strains of mouse hepatitis virus, strain JHM develop a chronic infection in the brain and spinal cord characterized by low levels of viral antigen persistence and retention of virus-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells at the site of infection. It is not known whether these cells are maintained by proliferation of T cells that entered the CNS during acute infection or are newly recruited from antigen-experienced or naïve T cell pools. Here, using adoptive transfer experiments and bone marrow chimeras, we show that at least some of these cells are recruited from the periphery, predominantly from the viral antigen-experienced T cell pool. Both virus-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells are functional, as assessed by cytokine expression and degranulation after peptide exposure. In addition, populations of virus-specific CD4 T cells undergo dynamic changes in the infected CNS, as previously shown for CD8 T cells, since ratios of cells responding to two CD4 T cell epitopes change by a factor of 5 during the course of persistence. Collectively, these results show that maintenance of T cell responses in the virus-infected CNS is a dynamic process. Further, virus-specific T cell numbers at this site of infection are maintained by recruitment from peripheral antigen-experienced and naïve T cell pools. PMID:19786545

  20. Long-term epidemiological study of disseminated neoplasia of cockles in Galicia (NW Spain): temporal patterns at individual and population levels, influence of environmental and cockle-based factors and lethality.

    PubMed

    Díaz, S; Iglesias, D; Villalba, A; Carballal, M J

    2016-09-01

    The dynamics of disseminated neoplasia (DN) affecting cockles Cerastoderma edule (L.) in Galicia was addressed at individual and population levels. Early stage of DN was characterized by isolated neoplastic cells occurring in branchial vessels or in the connective tissue of gills, mantle, gonad or digestive gland. As disease progressed, the neoplastic cells appeared loose in foci and became widely distributed throughout the organs. In advanced stages, the connective tissue of most organs was infiltrated by neoplastic cells, which displaced normal cells, leading to the loss of the normal tissue/organ architecture. Host defence reaction was occasionally observed. A field survey performed for 7 years, in two cockle beds located in different Galician Rías, showed that DN is a hyperendemic disease usually present all year-round at high prevalence in adult cockles but with annual prevalence minima in spring likely due to the death of heavily affected cockles, concurrently with gonad ripeness-spawning. DN was detected in the cockles ranging from 10 to 39 mm in size; the highest DN prevalence and severity corresponded to the cockles of intermediate size/age (22-29 mm/0.7-1 year old). Sex did not appear to influence DN occurrence. An inhibitory effect of DN on cockle gametogenesis was detected. PMID:26813312

  1. Stochastic multi-scale models of competition within heterogeneous cellular populations: Simulation methods and mean-field analysis.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Roberto de la; Guerrero, Pilar; Spill, Fabian; Alarcón, Tomás

    2016-10-21

    We propose a modelling framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of heterogeneous, multi-scale cellular populations. We illustrate our methodology with a particular example in which we study a population with an oxygen-regulated proliferation rate. Our formulation is based on an age-dependent stochastic process. Cells within the population are characterised by their age (i.e. time elapsed since they were born). The age-dependent (oxygen-regulated) birth rate is given by a stochastic model of oxygen-dependent cell cycle progression. Once the birth rate is determined, we formulate an age-dependent birth-and-death process, which dictates the time evolution of the cell population. The population is under a feedback loop which controls its steady state size (carrying capacity): cells consume oxygen which in turn fuels cell proliferation. We show that our stochastic model of cell cycle progression allows for heterogeneity within the cell population induced by stochastic effects. Such heterogeneous behaviour is reflected in variations in the proliferation rate. Within this set-up, we have established three main results. First, we have shown that the age to the G1/S transition, which essentially determines the birth rate, exhibits a remarkably simple scaling behaviour. Besides the fact that this simple behaviour emerges from a rather complex model, this allows for a huge simplification of our numerical methodology. A further result is the observation that heterogeneous populations undergo an internal process of quasi-neutral competition. Finally, we investigated the effects of cell-cycle-phase dependent therapies (such as radiation therapy) on heterogeneous populations. In particular, we have studied the case in which the population contains a quiescent sub-population. Our mean-field analysis and numerical simulations confirm that, if the survival fraction of the therapy is too high, rescue of the quiescent population occurs. This gives rise to emergence of resistance

  2. Long-term persistence of chromosome aberrations in uranium miners.

    PubMed

    Mészáros, Gabriella; Bognár, Gabriella; Köteles, G J

    2004-07-01

    Chromosome aberration analyses were performed on blood samples from 165 active underground uranium miners between 1981 and 1985. After decommissioning the mine in 1997 chromosome aberration analyses were also included in the medical laboratory investigations of health conditions of 141 subjects between 1998 and 2002 within the framework of a follow-up-study. The numerical data are presented as functions of the exposure categories expressed in working level month up to 600. In the active groups the dicentric level was 7 to 12 times higher than in the unexposed population, the acentrics also higher with more than an order of magnitude, the frequency of total aberrations--including dicentrics, acentrics, rings, deletions, minits and numerical aberrations, i.e. both chromatid and chromosome type of aberrations were also well above the control level. In the group of former uranium miners although there were slight decreases in the dicentrics after 8 to 25 yr, the values were not significantly different from the values of active miners. The frequency of deletions was also maintained in the post-mining period. The frequency of acentrics, however, decreased significantly, but even the lowest values remained 2-3 times higher than the values in the unexposed population.The possibility is suggested that for the long-term persistence of cytogenetic alterations the permanent production and presence of clastogenic factors might be responsible. The comparison of the two datasets suggest a long-term persistence of cytogenetic alterations above the population average values in a large fraction of persons investigated. PMID:15308832

  3. Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Meer, Jaap; Beukema, J. J.; Dekker, Rob

    2013-09-01

    More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average sea surface winter temperature on the population dynamics, and one-year ahead model forecasts correlated well with true observations (r = 0.90). During the last decade a pronounced warming of the area occurred. Average winter temperature increased with 0.9 °C. Here we show that despite the high goodness-of-fit whilst using the original dataset, predictive capability of the models for the recent warm period was poor.

  4. Long-Term Space Astrophysics Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowark, Michael A.

    2001-01-01

    This is the final report for our Long-Term Space Astrophysics Program (NRA 94-OSS-12) grant NAG 5-3225. The proposal is entitled 'Spectral and Temporal Properties of Black Hole Candidates', and began funding in May 1995, and ran through 31 Aug 2000. The project summary from the original proposal was as follows: 'We will study the spectral and temporal properties of black hole candidates (BHC) by using data from archival sources (e.g., EXOSAT, Ginga, ROSAT) and proposed follow-up observations with modern instruments (e.g., ASCA, XTE). Our spectral studies will focus on identifying the basic characteristics and luminosities of the emission components in the various 'states' of BHC. We hope to understand and quantify the global energetics of these states. Our temporal studies will focus on expanding and classifying our knowledge of BHC variability properties in each state. We will explore the nature of quasi-periodic oscillations in BHC. We will combine our spectral and temporal studies by analyzing time lags and variability coherence between energy channels. In addition, we will investigate ways of correlating observed variability behavior with specific emission components.' We have accomplished many of these goals laid out within the original proposal. As originally proposed, we have utilized both archival and proprietary satellite data. In terms of archival data, we have utilized data from the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA), ROSAT, and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). We also obtained proprietary data from ASCA, RXTE, and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). In terms of sources, we have examined a wide variety of both galactic black hole candidates and extra-galactic black holes. For the galactic black holes we have observed and analyzed both the low/hard state and the high/soft state. We have performed both spectral and timing analyses on all of these objects. In addition, we have also examined a number of neutron stars or

  5. Long term property prediction of polyethylene nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaito, Ali Al-Abed

    properties of the nanocomposites was analyzed by examining tensile and creep-recovery behavior of the films at temperatures in the range of 25 to -100°C. Within the measured temperature range, the materials showed a nonlinear temperature dependent response. The time-temperature superposition principle was successfully used to predict the long term behavior of LLDPE nanocomposites.

  6. LOP- LONG-TERM ORBIT PREDICTOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, J. H.

    1994-01-01

    The Long-Term Orbit Predictor (LOP) trajectory propagation program is a useful tool in lifetime analysis of orbiting spacecraft. LOP is suitable for studying planetary orbit missions with reconnaissance (flyby) and exploratory (mapping) trajectories. Sample data is included for a geosynchronous station drift cycle study, a Venus radar mapping strategy, a frozen orbit about Mars, and a repeat ground trace orbit. LOP uses the variation-of-parameters method in formulating the equations of motion. Terms involving the mean anomaly are removed from numerical integrations so that large step sizes, on the order of days, are possible. Consequently, LOP executes much faster than programs based on Cowell's method, such as the companion program ASAP (the Artificial Satellite Analysis Program, NPO-17522, also available through COSMIC). The program uses a force model with a gravity field of up to 21 by 21, lunisolar perturbation, drag, and solar radiation pressure. The input includes classical orbital elements (either mean or oscillating), orbital elements of the sun relative to the planet, reference time and dates, drag coefficients, gravitational constants, planet radius, rotation rate. The printed output contains the classical elements for each time step or event step, and additional orbital data such as true anomaly, eccentric anomaly, latitude, longitude, periapsis altitude, and the rate of change per day of certain elements. Selected output is additionally written to a plot file for postprocessing by the user. LOP is written in FORTRAN 77 for batch execution on IBM PC compatibles running MS-DOS with a minimum of 256K RAM. Recompiling the source requires the Lahey F77 v2.2 compiler. The LOP package includes examples that use LOTUS 1-2-3 for graphical displays, but any graphics software package should be able to handle the ASCII plot file. The program is available on two 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskettes. The program was written in 1986 and last updated in 1989. LOP is

  7. Long term prognosis of reactive salmonella arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Leirisalo-Repo, M; Helenius, P; Hannu, T; Lehtinen, A; Kreula, J; Taavitsainen, M; Koskimies, S

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—Reactive joint complications triggered by salmonella gastroenteritis are increasingly reported, but the outcome and long term prognosis of the patients is incompletely known. This study looked at the prognosis of salmonella arthritis in patients hospitalised in 1970-1986.
METHODS—Hospital records from two hospitals in southern Finland were screened for patients with the discharge diagnosis of salmonellosis or reactive, postinfectious arthritis or Reiter's disease. For the patients with confirmed diagnosis of reactive salmonella arthritis, data about the acute disease were collected from the hospital records. A follow up study was performed.
RESULTS—There were 63 patients (28 women, 35 men, mean age 36.5 years) with salmonella arthritis. Urethritis occurred in 27%, eye inflammation in 13%, and low back pain in 44% of the patients. HLA-B27 was present in 88%. More men than women were HLA-B27 positive. HLA-B27 positive patients had higher erythrocyte sedimentation rate (mean 80.9 v 46.5 mm 1st h, p = 0.0180). Also, extra-articular features and radiological sacroiliitis were seen only in HLA-B27 positive patients. A follow up study was performed on 50 patients mean 11.0 (range 5-22 years) later. Twenty patients had recovered completely. Ten patients had mild joint symptoms, 11 patients had had a new acute transient arthritis, and five acute iritis. Eight patients had developed chronic spondyloarthropathy. Radiological sacroiliitis was seen in six of 44 patients, more frequently in male than in female patients (32% v 0%; p = 0.0289). Recurrent or chronic arthritis, iritis or radiological sacroiliitis developed only in HLA-B27 positive patients.
CONCLUSION—Joint symptoms are common after reactive salmonella arthritis. HLA-B27 contributes to the severity of acute disease and to the late prognosis.

 PMID:9370874

  8. Electronic Medical Record and Quality Ratings of Long Term Care Facilities Long-Term Care Facility Characteristics and Reasons and Barriers for Adoption of Electronic Medical Record

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daniels, Cheryl Andrea

    2013-01-01

    With the growing elderly population, compounded by the retirement of the babyboomers, the need for long-term care (LTC) facilities is expected to grow. An area of great concern for those that are seeking a home for their family member is the quality of care provided by the nursing home to the residents. Electronic medical records (EMR) are often…

  9. Clostridium difficile in the Long-Term Care Facility: Prevention and Management

    PubMed Central

    Jump, Robin L. P.; Donskey, Curtis J.

    2014-01-01

    Residents of long-term care facilities are at high risk for Clostridium difficile infection due to frequent antibiotic exposure in a population already rendered vulnerable to infection due to advanced age, multiple comorbid conditions and communal living conditions. Moreover, asymptomatic carriage of toxigenic C. difficile and recurrent infections are prevalent in this population. Here, we discuss epidemiology and management of C. difficile infection among residents of long-term care facilities. Also, recognizing that both the population and culture differs significantly from that of hospitals, we also address prevention strategies specific to LTCFs. PMID:25685657

  10. Estimated long-term health effects

    SciTech Connect

    Cardis, F.; Okeanov, A.E.; Likthariev, I.; Prisyazhniuk; Anspaugh, L.R.; Mabuchi, K.; Ivanov, V.K.

    1996-04-01

    Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer in those exposed as children, there is no evidence to date of a major public health impact of the radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident in the three most affected countries. Although some increases in the frequency of cancer in exposed populations have been reported, these results are difficult to interpret, mainly because of differences in the intensity and method of follow-up between exposed populations and the general population to which they are compared. If the experience of atomic bomb survivors and of other exposed populations is applicable, the major radiological impact of the accident will be cancer and the total lifetime numbers of excess cancers will be greatest among the liquidators and among the residents of contaminated territories, of the order of 2,000 to 2,500. These increases would be difficult to detect epidemiologically against an expected background number of 41,500 and 433,000 respectively (size of the exposed populations: 200,000 and 3,700,000, respectively). It is noted, however, that the exposures received by populations exposed as a result of Chernobyl are different (in type and pattern) from those of atomic bomb survivors. Predictions derived from these populations are therefore uncertain. Indeed, the extent of the increase in thyroid cancer incidence in persons exposed as children was not foreseen. In addition, only ten years have passed since the accident. It is essential therefore that monitoring of the health of the population be continued in order to assess the public health impact of the accident, even if, apart from leukemia among liquidators, little detectable increase of cancers due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident is expected.

  11. Long-term effects of flipper bands on penguins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gauthier-Clerc, M.; Gendner, J.-P.; Ribic, C.A.; Fraser, William R.; Woehler, Eric J.; Descamps, S.; Gilly, C.; Le, Bohec C.; Le, Maho Y.

    2004-01-01

    Changes in seabird populations, and particularly of penguins, offer a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of fisheries and climatic variations on marine resources. Such investigations often require large-scale banding to identify individual birds, but the significance of the data relies on the assumption that no bias is introduced in this type of long-term monitoring. After 5 years of using an automated system of identification of king penguins implanted with electronic tags (100 adult king penguins were implanted with a transponder tag, 50 of which were also flipper banded), we can report that banding results in later arrival at the colony for courtship in some years, lower breeding probability and lower chick production. We also found that the survival rate of unbanded, electronically tagged king penguin chicks after 2-3 years is approximately twice as large as that reported in the literature for banded chicks. ?? 2004 The Royal Society.

  12. Long-term effects of flipper bands on penguins.

    PubMed Central

    Gauthier-Clerc, M; Gendner, J P; Ribic, C A; Fraser, W R; Woehler, E J; Descamps, S; Gilly, C; Le Bohec, C; Le Maho, Y

    2004-01-01

    Changes in seabird populations, and particularly of penguins, offer a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of fisheries and climatic variations on marine resources. Such investigations often require large-scale banding to identify individual birds, but the significance of the data relies on the assumption that no bias is introduced in this type of long-term monitoring. After 5 years of using an automated system of identification of king penguins implanted with electronic tags (100 adult king penguins were implanted with a transponder tag, 50 of which were also flipper banded), we can report that banding results in later arrival at the colony for courtship in some years, lower breeding probability and lower chick production. We also found that the survival rate of unbanded, electronically tagged king penguin chicks after 2-3 years is approximately twice as large as that reported in the literature for banded chicks. PMID:15801593

  13. Vaccination for the expatriate and long-term traveler.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, Suzanne M; Shoff, William H

    2014-06-01

    Duration of travel is an important factor in addressing travel health safety due to cumulative risk of exposure to illness and injury. The diverse group of expatriate and long-term business and leisure travelers present a different spectrum of issues for the travel medicine practitioner to address during consultation than does the short-term traveler, due to changes in travel patterns and activities, lifestyle alterations, and increased interaction with local populations. Immunization provides one safe and reliable method of preventing infectious illness in this group. We review travel patterns and available data on illnesses that they may be exposed to, including the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses. We review the pre-travel management of these travelers, particularly the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses as it applies to routine vaccines, recommended travel vaccines and required travel vaccines. PMID:24785305

  14. Long-term cycles in cosmic X-ray sources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Priedhorsky, W. C.; Holt, S. S.

    1987-01-01

    Data on long-term cycles in galactic X-ray sources are reviewed, and classes of variations are identified including precessional activity, recurrent outbursts in Population II sources, and Be/neutron star flare cycles. Cycles of 30-300 days have been found in LMC X-4, Her X-1, SS433, and Cyg X-1 which represent cyclic variations in both the inner and outer parts of the accretion disk. Quasi-periodic cycles with periods ranging from 1/2 to 2 years have been noted in several low-mass X-ray binaries. It is suggested that periodic outbursts in the Be/neutron star systems may result from variable mass transfer in a wide eccentric orbit.

  15. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates.

    PubMed

    Schwindt, Adam R; Winkelman, Dana L

    2016-09-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L(-1) and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates. PMID:27372448

  16. Preparing Tomorrow’s Nursing Home Nurses: The Wisconsin-Long Term Care Clinical Scholars Program

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Kim; Roberts, Tonya; Gilmore-Bykovskyi, Andrea; Roiland, Rachel; Gullickson, Colleen; Ryther, Brenda; Bowers, Barbara J.

    2014-01-01

    Preparing future nurses to care for the growing population of older adults has become a national priority. The demand for long term care services is expected to double between 2000 and 2040, yet the field remains stigmatized as an undesirable place for highly-skilled nurses to work. Recent efforts to increase student preparation in geriatrics have been shown to improve student attitudes toward working with older adults and increase knowledge, but long term care settings remain unattractive to students. This paper reports on development, implementation and evaluation of The Wisconsin Long Term Care Clinical Scholars Program, a nursing home internship for baccalaureate nursing students. The program couples a paid nursing home work experience with an evidence-based long term care nursing curriculum. The program increased student preparation and interest in working with older adults and in nursing homes, while concurrently increasing the capacity of nursing homes to provide a positive student experience. PMID:25162659

  17. Long-term evolution is surprisingly predictable in lattice proteins

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, Michael E.; Moudgil, Arnav; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    It has long been debated whether natural selection acts primarily upon individual organisms, or whether it also commonly acts upon higher-level entities such as lineages. Two arguments against the effectiveness of long-term selection on lineages have been (i) that long-term evolutionary outcomes will not be sufficiently predictable to support a meaningful long-term fitness and (ii) that short-term selection on organisms will almost always overpower long-term selection. Here, we use a computational model of protein folding and binding called ‘lattice proteins’. We quantify the long-term evolutionary success of lineages with two metrics called the k-fitness and k-survivability. We show that long-term outcomes are surprisingly predictable in this model: only a small fraction of the possible outcomes are ever realized in multiple replicates. Furthermore, the long-term fitness of a lineage depends only partly on its short-term fitness; other factors are also important, including the ‘evolvability’ of a lineage—its capacity to produce adaptive variation. In a system with a distinct short-term and long-term fitness, evolution need not be ‘short-sighted’: lineages may be selected for their long-term properties, sometimes in opposition to short-term selection. Similar evolutionary basins of attraction have been observed in vivo, suggesting that natural biological lineages will also have a predictive long-term fitness. PMID:23466559

  18. Long-term ozone monitoring from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad, S.; Johnson, J.; Serafino, G.; McPeters, R.

    Ultraviolet Spectrometer (SBUV), are archived at the Goddard DAAC and are freely available to the public. Standard products from TOMS include daily global total ozone and effective UV reflectivity of the earth-atmosphere system. Data products from future upper atmospheric research missions, e.g., the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) aboard Aura, will also be archived at the Goddard DAAC. For ozone trend analysis, a long-term data set consisting of over twenty years of ozone measurements from space and some value added research products have been produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center scientists (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch/ Code 916) and are made available to the research community (http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov). Examples of some of these research products are:1) daily erythermal UV exposure -estimates of harmful UV-B radiation at the surface, 2) an index to track the global transport of ash and sulfur dioxide resulting from volcanic eruptions, 3) another index to track smoke emanating from large fires and dust plumes originating from desert regions, 4) aerosol optical depth, 5) tropospheric ozone obtained from cloud-slicing techniques, and 6) a merged total ozone data product consisting of monthly mean ozone merged from six satellite instruments. The Upper Atmospheric Data Support Team has been providing science and data support to assist users in accessing and using the upper atmospheric data products. A number of tools for data access, subsetting, reprojection and mapping of orbital (Level-2) products, visualization of global gridded (Level-3) products, and data analysis have been developed at the Goddard DAAC and are freely available to the data user (http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov) This presentation will provide highlights of the standard and value-added ozone and ancillary products, and the data services provided by the DAAC Upper Atmosphere Data Support Team.

  19. Long-term Ozone monitoring from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad, S.; Johnson, J.; Serafino, G.; McPeters, R.

    Ultraviolet Spectrometer (SBUV), are archived at the Goddard DAAC and are freely available to the public. Standard products from TOMS include daily global total ozone and effective UV reflectivity of the earth-atmosphere system. Data products from future upper atmospheric research missions, e.g., the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) aboard Aura, will also be archived at the Goddard DAAC. For ozone trend analysis, a long-term data set consisting of over twenty years of ozone measurements from space and some value added research products have been produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center scientists (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch/ Code 916) and are made available to the research community (http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov). Examples of some of these research products are:1) daily erythermal UV exposure -estimates of harmful UV-B radiation at the surface, 2) an index to track the global transport of ash and sulfur dioxide resulting from volcanic eruptions, 3) another index to track smoke emanating from large fires and dust plumes originating from desert regions, 4) aerosol optical depth, 5) tropospheric ozone obtained from cloud-slicing techniques, and 6) a merged total ozone data product consisting of monthly mean ozone merged from six satellite instruments. The Upper Atmospheric Data Support Team has been providing science and data support to assist users in accessing and using the upper atmospheric data products. A number of tools for data access, subsetting, reprojection and mapping of orbital (Level-2) products, visualization of global gridded (Level-3) products, and data analysis have been developed at the Goddard DAAC and are freely available to the data user (http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov) This presentation will provide highlights of the standard and value-added ozone and ancillary products, and the data services provided by the DAAC Upper Atmosphere Data Support Team.

  20. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  1. Process Based Long Term Simulation of Shelf Stratigraphy Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, H. S.; Reed, C. W.; Niedoroda, A. W.

    2004-12-01

    has been necessary to develop methods to extend the relatively short time series from the ROMS model (months) to representations of processes with much longer durations (decades). Long term wind records have been analyzed to develop statistical characterizations of Scirocco and Bora wind events. The events captured during the measurement period have been compared to these long term statistics and routines have been developed to scale and extend the boundary forcing of the M3D model accordingly. Although these procedures are inherently stochastic, they provide the fundamental outline of how detailed hydrodynamic and sediment-dynamic models can be employed to simulate the development of near-bed shelf stratigraphy over geologically relevant (cen