Science.gov

Sample records for long-term stochastic population

  1. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression.

    PubMed

    Antunes, G; Roque, A C; Simoes-de-Souza, F M

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca(2+)]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca(2+) induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca(2+) signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca(2+) thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  2. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression

    PubMed Central

    Antunes, G.; Roque, A. C.; Simoes-de-Souza, F. M.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca2+ induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca2+ signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca2+ thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Ankit; Briat, Corentin; Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-06-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  5. A Scalable Computational Framework for Establishing Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Reaction Networks

    PubMed Central

    Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  6. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

  7. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  8. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response.

    PubMed

    Maiti, A; Small, W; Lewicki, J P; Weisgraber, T H; Duoss, E B; Chinn, S C; Pearson, M A; Spadaccini, C M; Maxwell, R S; Wilson, T S

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter's improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  9. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  10. Sensitivity of train stochastic dynamics to long-term evolution of track irregularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestoille, N.; Soize, C.; Funfschilling, C.

    2016-05-01

    The influence of the track geometry on the dynamic response of the train is of great concern for the railway companies, because they have to guarantee the safety of the train passengers in ensuring the stability of the train. In this paper, the long-term evolution of the dynamic response of the train on a stretch of the railway track is studied with respect to the long-term evolution of the track geometry. The characterisation of the long-term evolution of the train response allows the railway companies to start off maintenance operations of the track at the best moment. The study is performed using measurements of the track geometry, which are carried out very regularly by a measuring train. A stochastic model of the studied stretch of track is created in order to take into account the measurement uncertainties in the track geometry. The dynamic response of the train is simulated with a multibody software. A noise is added in output of the simulation to consider the uncertainties in the computational model of the train dynamics. Indicators on the dynamic response of the train are defined, allowing to visualize the long-term evolution of the stability and the comfort of the train, when the track geometry deteriorates.

  11. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Thorndahl, S

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of both maximum water levels as well as CSO volumes based on operations of the urban drainage model MOUSE in a single catchment case study. Results show quite a wide confidence interval of the model predictions especially on the large return periods. Traditionally, return periods of drainage system predictions are based on ranking, but this paper proposes a new methodology for the assessment of return periods. Based on statistics of characteristic rainfall parameters and correlation with drainage system predictions, it is possible to predict return periods more reliably, and with smaller confidence bands compared to the traditional methodology. PMID:19542638

  12. The importance of stochastic signaling processes in the induction of long-term synaptic plasticity.

    PubMed

    De Schutter, Erik

    2013-11-01

    A stochastic model of the signaling network responsible for the induction of long-term depression (LTD) at the parallel fiber to Purkinje cell synapse is described. The model includes a PKC-ERK-cPLA2 positive feedback loop and mechanisms of AMPA receptor trafficking. It was tuned to replicate calcium uncaging experiments that cause LTD. The ultrasensitive activation of ERK makes the signaling network activity bistable, causing either LTD or not. Therefore, in single synapses only two discrete stable states (LTD and non-LTD) can be expressed. The stochastic properties of the signaling network causes threshold dithering and probabilistic expression of LTD, which allows at the macroscopic level for many different and stable mean magnitudes of depression. When the volume of a single spine is simulated no thresholds for the calcium input signal are present. Such thresholds appear only when the volume of simulation is increased by a factor 100 or more and the model output is then bistable. Similarly, deterministic solutions of the same model show only bistable behavior. LTD induction requires activation of the PKC-ERK-cPLA2 positive feedback loop but this activity is not constant: the activities of ERK and of cPLA2 fluctuate strongly. This is much less the case for PKC which is more constantly activated and thereby promotes a stable output of the pathway. PMID:23267752

  13. Long-term projections of national, regional, and state population

    SciTech Connect

    McDonald, J.F.; South, D.W.

    1986-07-01

    The projections prepared by the US Bureau of the Census are the best available projections of total US population. The DRI projections of population at the regional and state level to the year 2008 are the best available and are consistent with the US Bureau of the Census projections of total US population. The DRI regional and state projections can be extended from 2008 to 2030 with a simple model based on economic opportunity, although an even simpler model - constant shares - is used for the 1985 test runs. The US Bureau of the Census prepares the best available projections of the US age-sex distribution.

  14. Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.

    1985-01-01

    The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

  15. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

    PubMed Central

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-01-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  16. Long-term growth of desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, Philip A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1--4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23--25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39--47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  17. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of quantitative traits in two long-term randomly mated soybean populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility (gms) were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations designated: RSII and RSIII. These populations were evaluated in the field at three locations each with two replications. Genot...

  18. Analysis of Quantitative Traits in Two Long-Term Randomly Mated Soybean Populations I. Genetic Variances

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations: RSII and RSIII. Population means, variances, and heritabilities were estimated to determine the effects of 26 generations of random...

  19. Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Simon Robin

    2016-01-01

    It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated. PMID:27058254

  20. Long-term prescribing of antidepressants in the older population: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Dickinson, Rebecca; Knapp, Peter; House, Allan O; Dimri, Vandana; Zermansky, Arnold; Petty, Duncan; Holmes, John; Raynor, David K

    2010-01-01

    Background High rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing have been identified in the older population. Aims To explore the attitudes of older patients and their GPs to taking long-term antidepressant therapy, and their accounts of the influences on long-term antidepressant use. Design of study Qualitative study using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Setting One primary care trust in North Bradford. Method Thirty-six patients aged ≥75 years and 10 GPs were interviewed. Patients were sampled to ensure diversity in age, sex, antidepressant type, and home circumstances. Results Participants perceived significant benefits and expressed little apprehension about taking long-term antidepressants, despite being aware of the psychological and social factors involved in onset and persistence of depression. Barriers to discontinuation were identified following four themes: pessimism about the course and curability of depression; negative expectations and experiences of ageing; medicine discontinuation perceived by patients as a threat to stability; and passive (therapeutic momentum) and active (therapeutic maintenance) decisions to accept the continuing need for medication. Conclusion There is concern at a public health level about high rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing, but no evidence was found of a drive for change either from the patients or the doctors interviewed. Any apprehension was more than balanced by attitudes and behaviours supporting continuation. These findings will need to be incorporated into the planning of interventions aimed at reducing long-term antidepressant prescribing in older people. PMID:20353660

  1. Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

    PubMed Central

    Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

  2. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  3. Long-term benefits of full-day kindergarten: a longitudinal population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Brownell, M.D.; Nickel, N.C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P.J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C.Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were compared between FDK and half-day kindergarten (HDK) students in both targeted and universal FDK programmes. Propensity score matched cohort and stepped-wedge designs allowed for stronger causal inferences than previous research on FDK. We found limited long-term benefits of FDK, specific to the type of programme, outcomes examined, and subpopulations. FDK programmes targeted at low-income areas showed long-term improvements in numeracy for lower income girls. Our results suggest that expectations for wide-ranging long-term academic benefits of FDK are unwarranted. PMID:25632172

  4. Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Student Field Research Experiences in Special Populations.

    PubMed

    Soliman, Amr S; Chamberlain, Robert M

    2016-06-01

    Global health education and training of biomedical students in international and minority health research is expending through U.S. academic institutions. This study addresses the short- and long-term outcomes of an NCI-funded R25 short-term summer field research training program. This program is designed for MPH and Ph.D. students in cancer epidemiology and related disciplines, in international and minority settings (special populations) in a recent 7-year period. Positive short-term outcome of 73 students was measured as publishing a manuscript from the field research data and having a job in special populations. Positive long-term outcome was measured as having a post-doc position, being in a doctoral program, and/or employment in special populations at least 3 years from finishing the program. Significant factors associated with both short- and long-term success included resourcefulness of the student and compatibility of personalities and interests between the student and the on-campus and off-campus mentors. Short-term-success of students who conducted international filed research was associated with visits of the on-campus mentor to the field site. Short-term success was also associated with extent of mentorship in the field site and with long-term success. Future studies should investigate how field research sites could enhance careers of students, appropriateness of the sites for specific training competencies, and how to maximize the learning experience of students in international and minority research sites. PMID:25773133

  5. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George

    2015-04-01

    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  6. [Impact of long-term continuous cropping on the Fusarium population in soybean rhizosphere].

    PubMed

    Wei, Wei; Xu, Yan-Li; Zhu, Lin; Zhang, Si-Jia; Li, S

    2014-02-01

    The impact of long-term continuous cropping on the Fusarium population abundance and diversity, pathogenicity and phylogeny in soybean field were analyzed by using isolation, morphological identification, pathogenicity test, sequencing analysis and molecular marker with restricted fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP). The soybean field was located at the Hailun Experimental Station of Agricultural Ecology of Chinese Academy of Sciences in Northeast China and had been under a long-term rotation experiment designed to two treatments, i. e., long-term continuous cropping (LCC) of soybean for 20 years and short-term continuous cropping (SCC) for 3 years. In SCC field, the population density of Fusarium spp. was 6.0 x 10(4) CFU x g(-1), in which F. oxysporum, F. graminearum and F. verticillioides possessing high pathogenicity and F. solani possessing moderate pathogenicity were the dominant species. In LCC field, the population density of Fusarium population and the dominance index of dominant species were significantly lower than that in SCC. The population density of F. oxysporum, F. graminearum and F. solani were only 36% , 32% and 22% of that in SCC, and F. verticillioide with highest pathogenicity was absent. The diversity and evenness index of Fusarium population were significantly higher than that in SCC. F. tricinctum, F. lateritium and F. avenaceum, just isolated from LCC, possessing a distant genetic relationship with Fusarium isolates possessing high pathogenicity based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and translation elongation factor 1-alpha (EF-1alpha) gene, were non-pathogenicity for soybean. Thus, it seemed that LCC of soybean could cause the inhibition of soil Fusarium population size, alteration of Fusarium community composition and genetic diversity, and even the decline of pathogenicity for soybean root rot disease of Fusarium population. PMID:24830251

  7. APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR LONG-TERM DISASTER PREVENTION PLANNING

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segi, Shunsuke; Ishikura, Tomoki; Yokomatsu, Muneta

    This paper builds a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model which deals with investment to disaster prevention infrastructure stock. The nature of disaster such as uncertainty, magnitude of damage and long run effects of damage are explicitly modeled. The model can derive optimal policy with regard to investment to productive capital stock and disaster prevention infrastructure stock. Furthermore, the numerical simulations give some interesting implications about the relationship between optimal investment policy, magnitude of disaster, level of economic development and disaster prevention technology.

  8. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  9. Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2006-12-01

    Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models

  10. An optical model for implementing Parrondo's game and designing stochastic game with long-term memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Si, Tieyan

    2012-11-01

    An optical model of classical photons propagating through array of many beam splitters is developed to give a physical analogy of Parrondo's game and Parrondo-Harmer-Abbott game. We showed both the two games are reasonable game without so-called game paradox and they are essentially the same. We designed the games with long-term memory on loop lattice and history-entangled game. The strong correlation between nearest two rounds of game can make the combination of two losing game win, lose or oscillate between win and loss. The periodic potential in Brownian ratchet is analogous to a long chain of beam splitters. The coupling between two neighboring potential wells is equivalent to two coupled beam splitters. This correspondence may help us to understand the anomalous motion of exceptional Brownian particles moving in the opposite direction to the majority. We designed the capital wave for a game by introducing correlations into independent capitals instead of sub-games. Playing entangled quantum states in many coupled classical games obey the same rules for manipulating quantum states in many body physics.

  11. Long-term disease dynamics in lakes: causes and consequences of chytrid infections in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Ives, Anthony R; Lathrop, Richard C; Carpenter, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the drivers and consequences of disease epidemics is an important frontier in ecology. However, long-term data on hosts, their parasites, and the corresponding environmental conditions necessary to explore these interactions are often unavailable. We examined the dynamics of Daphnia pulicaria, a keystone zooplankter in lake ecosystems, to explore the long-term causes and consequences of infection by a chytridiomycete parasitoid (Polycaryum laeve). After quantifying host-pathogen dynamics from vouchered samples collected over 15 years, we used autoregressive models to evaluate (1) hypothesized drivers of infection, including host density, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, host-food availability, and lake mixing; and (2) the effects of epidemics on host populations. Infection was present in most years but varied widely in prevalence, from < 1% to 34%, with seasonal peaks in early spring and late fall. Within years, lake stratification strongly inhibited P. laeve transmission, such that epidemics occurred primarily during periods of water mixing. Development of the thermocline likely reduced transmission by spatially separating susceptible hosts from infectious zoospores. Among years, ice duration and cumulative snowfall correlated negatively with infection prevalence, likely because of reductions in spring phytoplankton and D. pulicaria density in years with extended winters. Epidemics also influenced dynamics of the host population. Infected D. pulicaria rarely (< 1%) contained eggs, and P. laeve prevalence was positively correlated with sexual reproduction in D. pulicaria. Analyses of D. pulicaria density-dependent population dynamics predicted that, in the absence of P. laeve infection, host abundance would be 11-50% higher than what was observed. By underscoring the importance of complex physical processes in controlling host-parasite interactions and of epidemic disease in influencing host populations, our results highlight the value of long-term

  12. Long-Term Changes in Landscape Structure Within and Across China's Densely Populated Rural Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E.

    2006-05-01

    China's densely populated agricultural village landscapes cover nearly 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia. Driven by industrialization, population growth and economic reform, this vast extent of intensively- managed anthropogenic landscapes has undergone unprecedented ecological changes over the past fifty years. Despite their potential global impacts, long-term changes in China's village landscapes are the cumulative result of multitudinous fine-scale changes in landscape structure and resource management by hundreds of millions of agricultural households acting locally. Here we present results from a five-year field study of long-term ecological changes, circa 1945 to 2002, across China's densely populated agricultural regions based on high-resolution landscape change measurements, land manager interviews, and soil and vegetation sampling at five field sites in environmentally distinct regions across China. Human population density nearly doubled across sites, driving increases in anthropogenic impervious surface area and landscape fragmentation, yielding a 5% net increase in impervious surfaces across China's village landscapes over the past fifty years, a change similar in magnitude to the total current area of China's cities (~0.1 × 106 km2). Surprisingly, woody vegetation and tree cover also increased substantially over time, by approximately 10% (~0.2 × 106 km2), driven by tree planting and regrowth around newly constructed buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture and improved forestry, and the abandonment of annual crop cultivation. These and other long-term changes in landscape structure have the potential to contribute substantially and in unforeseen ways to global and regional changes in biogeochemical and hydrological processes, surface albedo and heat balance.

  13. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable. PMID:22812118

  14. Long-term star formation at the Galactic center and its effect on the stellar population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serabyn, E.

    Although the central kpc-scale bulge of our Galaxy consists predominantly of old stars, the central parsec, in contrast, is host to a sizable number of very young stars. At intermediate scales, the nature of the stellar population remains very uncertain because high extinction has thus far limited observations. This talk will attempt to bridge these two regimes. As several other young stellar clusters are present in the central few hundred parsecs, star-formation is in fact quite widespread in our Galaxy's nucleus. Based on the current distribution of dense nuclear interstellar gas, and the current rate of star-formation, the hypothesis of our Galactic nucleus as a site of sustained, low-level star formation then emerges. The result of a long-term star formation rate of a few tenths of a solar mass per year would be a flattened central cluster of intermediate-age stars, amounting to about a billion solar masses. A stellar cluster of the requisite mass and linear scale is indeed present in our Galactic nucleus, and arguments will be presented that our Galaxy's central ``1 over r-squared' ' cluster is in fact an intermediate age population resulting from long-term star formation, and not simply the innermost part of the more elderly bulge.

  15. Long-term survival following intensive care: subgroup analysis and comparison with the general population.

    PubMed

    Wright, J C; Plenderleith, L; Ridley, S A

    2003-07-01

    This study aimed to compare the very long-term survival of critically ill patients with that of the general population, and examine the association among age, sex, admission diagnosis, APACHE II score and mortality. In a retrospective observational cohort study of prospectively gathered data, 2104 adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a teaching hospital in Glasgow from 1985 to 1992, were followed until 1997. Vital status at five years was compared with that of an age- and sex-matched Scottish population. Five-year mortality for the ICU patients was 47.1%, 3.4 times higher than that of the general population. For those surviving intensive care the five-year mortality was 33.4%. Mortality was greater than that of the general population for four years following intensive care unit admission (95% confidence interval included 1.0 at four years). Multivariate analysis showed that risk factors for mortality in those admitted to ICU were age, APACHE II score on admission and diagnostic category. Mortality was higher for those admitted with haematological (87.5%) and neurological diseases (61.7%) and septic shock (62.9%). A risk score was produced: Risk Score = 10 (age hazard ratio + APACHE II hazard ratio + diagnosis hazard ratio). None of the patients with a risk score > 100 survived more than five years and for those who survived to five years the mean risk score was 57. Long-term survival following intensive care is not only related to age and severity of illness but also diagnostic category. The risk of mortality in survivors of critical illness matches that of the normal population after four years. Age, severity of illness and diagnosis can be combined to provide an estimate of five-year survival. PMID:12790812

  16. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  17. Population ageing and wellbeing: lessons from Japan's long-term care insurance policy.

    PubMed

    Tamiya, Nanako; Noguchi, Haruko; Nishi, Akihiro; Reich, Michael R; Ikegami, Naoki; Hashimoto, Hideki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kawachi, Ichiro; Campbell, John Creighton

    2011-09-24

    Japan's population is ageing rapidly because of long life expectancy and a low birth rate, while traditional supports for elderly people are eroding. In response, the Japanese Government initiated mandatory public long-term care insurance (LTCI) in 2000, to help older people to lead more independent lives and to relieve the burdens of family carers. LTCI operates on social insurance principles, with benefits provided irrespective of income or family situation; it is unusually generous in terms of both coverage and benefits. Only services are provided, not cash allowances, and recipients can choose their services and providers. Analysis of national survey data before and after the programme started shows increased use of formal care at lower cost to households, with mixed results for the wellbeing of carers. Challenges to the success of the system include dissatisfaction with home-based care, provision of necessary support for family carers, and fiscal sustainability. Japan's strategy for long-term care could offer lessons for other nations. PMID:21885099

  18. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  19. Retinal Microvasculature Is Associated With Long-Term Survival in the General Adult Dutch Population.

    PubMed

    Mutlu, Unal; Ikram, M Kamran; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-02-01

    Retinal vascular diameters are associated with (sub)clinical cardiovascular disease and short-term cardiovascular mortality, but their association with long-term mortality is uncertain. We studied the association of retinal vascular diameters with cause-specific mortality in the general adult Dutch population during 25 years of follow-up. From 1990 to 1993, arteriolar and venular diameters were measured semiautomatically on digitized images in 5674 persons (mean age 68.0 years, 59% women) from the population-based Rotterdam study. Follow-up for mortality was complete till March 2015. Associations between vascular diameters and mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and the fellow vessel diameter. During 85 770 person-years (mean±SD: 15.1±6.67), 3794 (66.8%) persons died, of whom 1034 due to cardiovascular causes. We found that narrower arterioles and wider venules were associated with higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD decrease 1.04 [1.00-1.08] and increase 1.07 [1.03-1.12], respectively). For arterioles, these associations were strongest for cardiovascular mortality, whereas venules showed consistent associations for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Importantly, these associations remained unchanged after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up as immortal person-time. We found evidence for effect modification with stronger associations in persons <70 years (venules only) and smokers (P value for interaction<0.01). We replicated our findings in another independent cohort from the Rotterdam Study of 3106 persons with 19 880 person-years of follow-up and 144 deaths (hazard ratio for venules 1.22 [1.00-1.49]). Markers of retinal microvasculature are associated with long-term mortality in the general adult Dutch population. PMID:26628677

  20. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  1. Influence of melanin on mutation load in Drosophila populations after long-term irradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Mosse, I.B.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1994-09-01

    The effect of melanin on the level of mutation load has been studied in experimental Drosophila populations exposed to radiation for 115 generations. Four types of populations have been analyzed: (1) control; (2) treated with melanin; (3) irradiated; (4) irradiated and treated with melanin. Melanin was produced by auto-oxidation of 1-dioxyphenylallanine and was constantly added to food. Populations were X-irradiated twice in each generation (at the larvae stage with 6 Gy and at the imago stage with 9 Gy). The level of recessive mutation on the third chromosome was analyzed by a standard genetic method of balanced lethals. The data obtained have shown that the populations exposed to long-term irradiation have the greatest number of mutations decreasing viability. Melanin exhibited radioprotective properties-it reduced the percentage of lethal, semilethal and subvital mutations. Thus the possibility of effective protection of populations exposed to radiation for many generations by melanin has been shown for the first time. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  2. Effects of long-term chronic exposure to radionuclides in plant populations.

    PubMed

    Geras'kin, S; Evseeva, T; Oudalova, A

    2013-07-01

    The results of field studies carried out on different plant species (winter rye and wheat, spring barley, oats, Scots pine, wild vetch, crested hairgrass) in various radioecological situations (nuclear weapon testing, the Chernobyl accident, uranium and radium processing) to investigate the effects of long-term chronic exposure to radionuclides are discussed. Plant populations growing in areas with relatively low levels of pollution are characterized by an increased level of both cytogenetic disturbances and genetic diversity. Although ionizing radiation causes primary damage at the molecular level, there are emergent effects at the level of populations, non-predictable from the knowledge of elementary mechanisms of cellular effects formation. Accumulation of cellular alterations may afterward influence biological parameters important for populations such as health and reproduction. Presented data provide evidence that in plant populations inhabiting heavily contaminated territories cytogenetic damage could be accompanied by a decrease in reproductive capacity. However, in less contaminated sites, because of the scarcity of data available, a steady relationship between cytogenetic effects and reproductive capacity was not revealed. Under radioactive contamination of the plant's environment, a population's resistance to exposure may increase. However, there are radioecological situations where an enhanced radioresistance has not evolved or has not persisted. PMID:22483340

  3. Long-term population demography of Trillium recurvatum on loess bluffs in western Tennessee, USA

    PubMed Central

    Moore, James E.; Franklin, Scott B.; Wein, Gary; Collins, Beverly S.

    2012-01-01

    Background and aims Understanding the demography of long-lived clonal herbs, with their extreme modularity, requires knowledge of both their short- and long-term survival and ramet growth patterns. The primary objective of this study was to understand the dynamics of a clonal forest herb, Trillium recurvatum, by examining temporal and small-scale demographic patterns. We hypothesized: (i) there would be more variability in the juvenile age class compared with non-flowering adult and flowering adult classes due to year-to-year fluctuations in recruitment; (ii) rates of population growth (λ) and increase (r) would be highest in non-flowering ramets due to a combination of transitions from the juvenile stage and reversions from flowering adults; and (iii) inter-ramet distances would be most variable between flowering and juvenile ramets due to a combination of clonal growth, seed dispersal by ants and ramet death over time. Methodology Census data were collected on the total number of stems in the population from 1990 to 2007, and placed within one of three life stages (juvenile, three-leaf non-flowering and three-leaf flowering). Modified population viability equations were used to assess temporal population viability, and spatial structure was assessed using block krigging. Correlations were performed using current and prior season weather to current population demography. Principal results The first hypothesis was rejected. The second hypothesis was supported: population increase (r) and growth rate (λ) were highest in non-flowering ramets. Finally, the third hypothesis was rejected: there was no apparent density dependence within this population of Trillium and no apparent spatial structure among life stages. Conclusions Overall population density fluctuated over time, possibly due to storms that move soil, and prior year's temperature and precipitation. However, density remained at some dynamic stable level. The juvenile age class had greater variability for

  4. Standardizing flow cytometric assays in long-term population-based studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melzer, Susanne; Bocsi, Jozsef; Tárnok, Attila

    2015-03-01

    Quantification of leukocyte subpopulations and characterization of antigen-expression pattern on the cellular surface can play an important role in diagnostics. The state of cellular immunology on the single-cell level was analyzed by polychromatic flow cytometry in a recent comparative study within the average Leipzig population (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases). Data of 1699 subjects were recorded over a long-time period of three years (in a total of 1126 days). To ensure compatibility of such huge data sets, quality-controls on many levels (stability of instrumentation, low intra-laboratory variance and reader independent data analysis) are essential. The LIFE study aims to analyze various cytometric pattern to reveal the relationship between the life-style, the environmental effects and the individual health. We therefore present here a multi-step quality control procedure for long-term comparative studies.

  5. Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  6. Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  7. Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system.

    PubMed

    Castorani, Max C N; Reed, Daniel C; Alberto, Filipe; Bell, Tom W; Simons, Rachel D; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Siegel, David A; Raimondi, Peter T

    2015-12-01

    Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment. PMID:26909421

  8. Competition matters: species interactions prolong the long-term effects of pulsed toxicant stress on populations.

    PubMed

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Liess, Matthias

    2014-07-01

    Recent empirical studies have revealed the importance of species competition for the effects of toxicants on populations. In the present study, the authors applied a generic individual-based simulation model of 2 competing species to analyze the consequences of interspecific competition for population dynamics under pulsed contamination. The results indicated that competition that causes a density-dependent decrease in reproduction can substantially prolong the long-term effects of the toxicant. In the example investigated, population recovery time increased from approximately 1 generation time without competition to more than 3 generation times under competition. In particular, species with low reproductive capacity exhibited a strongly prolonged recovery time when interspecific competition was included in the model. The authors conclude that toxicant concentrations derived from risk assessments for pesticides that do not consider competition might be under-protective for populations in real-world systems. The consideration of competition is especially relevant for species with low reproductive capacities to enable a realistic estimation of recovery pace. PMID:24375431

  9. Long-term musculoskeletal morbidity after adult burn injury: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Randall, Sean M; Fear, Mark W; Wood, Fiona M; Rea, Suzanne; Boyd, James H; Duke, Janine M

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate if adults who are hospitalised for a burn injury have increased long-term hospital use for musculoskeletal diseases. Design A population-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative health data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Subjects Records of 17 753 persons aged at least 20 years when hospitalised for a first burn injury in Western Australia during the period 1980–2012, and 70 758 persons who were age and gender-frequency matched with no injury admissions randomly selected from Western Australia's electoral roll. Main outcome measures Admission rates and cumulative length of stay for musculoskeletal diseases. Negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling were used to generate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and HRs with 95% CIs, respectively. Results After adjustment for pre-existing health status and demographic characteristics, the burn cohort had almost twice the hospitalisation rate for a musculoskeletal condition (IRR, 95% CI 1.98, 1.86 to 2.10), and spent 3.70 times as long in hospital with a musculoskeletal diagnosis (95% CI 3.10 to 4.42) over the 33-year period, than the uninjured comparison cohort. Adjusted survival analyses of incident post-burn musculoskeletal disease admissions found significant increases for the 15-year post burn discharge period (0–6 months: HR, 95% CI 2.51, 2.04 to 3.11; 6 months–2 years: HR, 95% CI 1.77, 1.53 to 2.05; 2–15 years: HR, 95% CI 1.32, 1.23 to 1.42). Incident admission rates were significantly elevated for 20 years post-burn for minor and severe burn injury for a range of musculoskeletal diseases that included arthropathies, dorsopathies, osteopathies and soft tissue disorders. Conclusions Minor and severe burn injuries were associated with significantly increased post-burn incident admission rates, long-term hospital use and prolonged length of stay for a range of musculoskeletal diseases. Further research is required

  10. Introducing health gains in location-allocation models: A stochastic model for planning the delivery of long-term care

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, T.; Oliveira, M. D.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Nickel, S.

    2015-05-01

    Although the maximization of health is a key objective in health care systems, location-allocation literature has not yet considered this dimension. This study proposes a multi-objective stochastic mathematical programming approach to support the planning of a multi-service network of long-term care (LTC), both in terms of services location and capacity planning. This approach is based on a mixed integer linear programming model with two objectives - the maximization of expected health gains and the minimization of expected costs - with satisficing levels in several dimensions of equity - namely, equity of access, equity of utilization, socioeconomic equity and geographical equity - being imposed as constraints. The augmented ε-constraint method is used to explore the trade-off between these conflicting objectives, with uncertainty in the demand and delivery of care being accounted for. The model is applied to analyze the (re)organization of the LTC network currently operating in the Great Lisbon region in Portugal for the 2014-2016 period. Results show that extending the network of LTC is a cost-effective investment.

  11. Linking genetic algorithms with stochastic dynamic programming to the long-term operation of a multireservoir system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng; Yuan, Lun-Chin; Lee, Chi-Ming

    2002-12-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a genetic algorithm-based stochastic dynamic programming (GA-based SDP) to cope with the dimensionality problem of a multiple-reservoir system. The joint long-term operation of a parallel reservoir system in the Feitsui and Shihmen reservoirs in northern Taiwan demonstrates the successful application of the proposed GA-based SDP model. Within the case study system it is believed that GA is a useful technique in supporting optimization. Though the employment of GA-based SDP may be time consuming as it proceeds through generation by generation, the model can overcome the "dimensionality curse" in searching solutions. Simulation results show Feitsui's surplus water can be utilized efficiently to fill Shihmen's deficit water without affecting Feitsui's main purpose as Taipei city's water supply. The optimal joint operation suggests that Feitsui, on average, can provide 650,000 m3/day and 920,000 m3/day to Shihmen during the wet season and dry season, respectively.

  12. Wasting disease regulates long-term population dynamics in a threatened seagrass.

    PubMed

    Bull, James C; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J

    2012-05-01

    The role of disease in the long-term dynamics of threatened species is poorly quantified, as well as being under-represented in ecology and conservation management. To understand persistent host-pathogen interaction operating in a vulnerable habitat, we quantified dynamics driving patterns of seagrass density using a longitudinal study in a relatively pristine site (Isles of Scilly, UK). Replicated samples of eelgrass (Zostera marina) density and wasting disease prevalence, presumably caused by Labyrinthula zosterae, were taken from five meadows at the height of the growing season, over the years 1997-2010. Data were used to parameterise a population dynamic model, incorporating density-dependent factors and sea temperature records. We found that direct density and disease-mediated feedback operate within a network of local populations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the strength of limitation to seagrass growth by disease was increased at higher temperatures. This modification of the coupled host-pathogen dynamics forms a novel hypothesis to account for dramatic die-backs of Z. marina widely reported elsewhere. Our findings highlight the importance of disease in structuring distributions of vulnerable species, as well as the application of population modelling in order to reveal ecological processes and prioritize future mechanistic investigation. PMID:22076311

  13. Geriatrics and the triple aim: defining preventable hospitalizations in the long-term care population.

    PubMed

    Ouslander, Joseph G; Maslow, Katie

    2012-12-01

    Reducing preventable hospitalizations is fundamental to the "triple aim" of improving care, improving health, and reducing costs. New federal government initiatives that create strong pressure to reduce such hospitalizations are being or will soon be implemented. These initiatives use quality measures to define which hospitalizations are preventable. Reducing hospitalizations could greatly benefit frail and chronically ill adults and older people who receive long-term care (LTC) because they often experience negative effects of hospitalization, including hospital-acquired conditions, morbidity, and loss of functional abilities. Conversely, reducing hospitalizations could mean that some people will not receive hospital care they need, especially if the selected measures do not adequately define hospitalizations that can be prevented without jeopardizing the person's health and safety. An extensive literature search identified 250 measures of preventable hospitalizations, but the measures have not been validated in the LTC population and generally do not account for comorbidity or the capacity of various LTC settings to provide the required care without hospitalization. Additional efforts are needed to develop measures that accurately differentiate preventable from necessary hospitalizations for the LTC population, are transparent and fair to providers, and minimize the potential for gaming and unintended consequences. As the new initiatives take effect, it is critical to monitor their effect and to develop and disseminate training and resources to support the many community- and institution-based healthcare professionals and emergency department staff involved in decisions about hospitalization for this population. PMID:23194066

  14. Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils.

    PubMed

    Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

    2016-02-01

    Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated (13)C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing (13)C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears

  15. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  16. Long-term ecological changes in the densely populated rural landscapes of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Erie C.

    Asia's densely populated agricultural landscapes are undergoing unprecedented ecological changes caused by population growth and adoption of industrial technologies such as fossil fuel and chemical fertilizer. Covering nearly 6×106 km2, these landscapes now release more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural land and biomass fuel. Measuring ecological processes and their changes in these highly heterogeneous "village landscapes" is made difficult by their very small scale of management, with households typically managing many small plots using a wide variety of inputs and methods. This chapter describes the global extent of village landscapes, characterizes their spatial heterogeneity, establishes appropriate scales for ecological change measurement, and demonstrates methods developed to measure long-term ecological changes across village landscapes in China. Reliable measurements of ecological change in village landscapes can be made by integrating high-resolution (≤1 m) landscape change measurements with household-level resource management data. These methods link local land use practices with regional and local ecological change, potentially aiding land use decision-making, but require far greater research effort than conventional land use measurements based on 30-1000 m resolution imagery and county or provincial data. Therefore, a multi-scale sampling and analysis system was developed to integrate local and regional data for estimating regional change across village landscapes in China. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach in measuring and mediating the impacts of ecological changes in densely populated landscapes are discussed in light of preliminary results indicating that population increase and modernization are increasing carbon sequestration across these landscapes.

  17. Mid- to Long-term Clinical Outcomes of Hancock II Bioprosthesis in Chinese Population

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yin; Chen, Si; Hu, Xing-Jian; Shi, Jia-Wei; Dong, Nian-Guo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Compared to the Western countries, Chinese patients present a special primary disease spectrum, diverse valvular pathogenesis, and different postoperational anticoagulation strategy. This research aimed to evaluate the mid- to long-term clinical performance of Hancock II bioprosthesis in the Chinese population. Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed all patients who received surgical treatments with at least one Hancock II bioprosthesis implantation from January 2004 to December 2013 at a single center in China. Totally 647 patients were included in the clinical evaluation, and 629 patients were successfully discharge, among whom 605 patients were completely followed-up. The follow-up rate was 96.2%. The mean and median follow-up time was 62.0 ± 59.0 and 56.0 months, respectively. Postoperative outcomes of survival rates, reoperations and valve related morbidities were assessed. Continuous and categorical variables were compared using the t -test and Chi-square test, respectively. Survival and freedom from adverse events were calculated by using a Kaplan–Meier method. Results: The overall in-hospital mortality was 2.8% (18/647) while there were 34 deaths (5.6%, 34/605) in the follow-up stage after discharge. The overall survival rate was 94.6% and 82.7% at 5 years and 10 years, respectively. The cumulative survival rate of 10 years was 82.8% in AVR group, 84.4% in MVR group, and 78.4% in DVR group. The overall rate of freedom from reoperations was 95.5% at 5 years and 86.8% at 10 years. The freedom from reoperation at 10 years was 87.0%, 88.1%, and 84.0% in AVR, MVR, and DVR group, respectively. The freedom from morbidities at 10 years was: 90.3% for thromboembolism, 95.2% for hemorrhage, 97.5% for prosthesis endocarditis, 95.9% for paravalvular leak, and 94.6% for structural valve deterioration, respectively. Conclusions: Hancock II bioprosthesis exhibited a satisfactory mid- to long-term durability and promising clinical performance in the

  18. Vitamin status and cognitive function in a long-term care population

    PubMed Central

    Paulionis, Lina; Kane, Sheri-Lynn; Meckling, Kelly A

    2005-01-01

    Background Ageing can be associated with poor dietary intake, reduced nutrient absorption, and less efficient utilization of nutrients. Loss of memory and related cognitive function are also common among older persons. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of inadequate vitamin status among long-term care patients and determine if an association exists between vitamin status and each of three variables; cognitive function, vitamin supplementation, and medications which alter gastric acid levels. Methods Seventy-five patients in a long-term care hospital in Guelph, Ontario were recruited to a cross-sectional study. 47 were female and the mean age was 80.7 (+/-11.5) years, ranging from 48 to 100 years. Blood was used to measure levels of vitamins B12 (cobalamin), B6 (pyridoxal-5'-phosphate/PLP), erythrocyte folate, vitamin B3 (niacin) and homocysteine (Hcy). The Standardized Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) was administered to measure cognitive function. A list of medications and vitamin supplementation for each patient was provided by the pharmacy. Results The prevalence of low vitamin (B12, B6, erythrocyte folate, niacin) or high metabolite (homocysteine) levels among 75 patients were as follows: B12 <148 pmol/L in 5/75 (6.7%); B12 between 148 and 221 pmol/L in 26/75 (34.7%); B6 ≤30 nmol/L in 4/75 (5.3%); erythrocyte folate <370 nmol/L in 1/75 (1.3%); niacin ratio ≤1 in 20/75 (26.7%); homocysteine >13.3 μmol/L in 31/75 (41.3%). There was no significant difference among residents grouped into marked (n = 44), mild (n = 14), or normal (n = 9) cognitive function when evaluating the effect of vitamin status. There were no significant differences in mean B12 and homocysteine levels between users and non-users of drug therapy (Losec, Zantac, or Axid). Compared to vitamin supplement non-users, supplemented residents had significantly higher mean B12 (p < 0.0001) and erythrocyte folate (p < 0.05) concentrations and significantly lower mean homocysteine (p

  19. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  20. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  1. Seasonal Fluctuations and Long-Term Persistence of Pathogenic Populations of Agrobacterium spp. in Soils

    PubMed Central

    Krimi, Z.; Petit, A.; Mougel, C.; Dessaux, Y.; Nesme, X.

    2002-01-01

    Short- and long-term persistence of pathogenic (i.e., tumor forming) agrobacteria in soil was investigated in six nursery plots with a history of high crown gall incidence. No pathogenic Agrobacterium strains were isolated in soil samples taken in fall and winter in any plots, but such strains were isolated from both bulk soils and weed rhizospheres (over 0.5 × 105 pathogenic CFU/g of bulk soil or rhizosphere) in three out of six plots in spring and summer. PCR amplifications of a vir sequence from DNA extracted from soil confirmed the presence of Ti plasmids in summer and their absence in fall and winter. The results indicate that strains that harbor a Ti plasmid had an unforeseen positive fitness versus Ti plasmid-free strains in soil and rhizosphere in spring and summer in spite of the apparent absence of tumor, and hence of opines. The gain of fitness occurred during a bloom of all cultivable agrobacteria observed only in conducive soils. An evolution of the pathogenic population was recorded during a 4-year period in one particularly conducive soil. In 1990, the pathogenic population in this soil consisted of only biovar 1 strains harboring both octopine- and nopaline-type Ti plasmids. In 1994, it consisted of only nopaline-type Ti plasmids equally distributed among biovar 1 and 2 strains. These results suggest that nopaline-type Ti plasmids conferred a better survival ability than octopine-type Ti plasmids to biovar 2 agrobacteria under the present field conditions. PMID:12089015

  2. The Association Between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents’ Economic Well-Being*

    PubMed Central

    Hunter, Lori M.; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2011-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here empirically models long-term rural residents’ economic well-being, making use of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In general, the results suggest that long-term rural families residing in high-growth amenity and recreation areas tend to have higher annual incomes than do their counterparts in non-growth amenity/recreation areas, regardless of the sex, race, or age of the family head. However, higher costs-of-living in these areas supplant any relative gains in income. As such, these analyses provide empirical evidence of patterns inferred by earlier anecdotal evidence and case studies. PMID:21874070

  3. Importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on the long-term boreal forest dynamics in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuosmanen, Niina; Seppä, Heikki; Alenius, Teija; Bradshaw, Richard; Clear, Jennifer; Filimonova, Fludmila; Heikkilä, Maija; Renssen, Hans; Tallavaara, Miikka; Reitalu, Triin

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoecological data provides valuable information for understanding the processes behind the past changes in forest composition, and hence can provide important knowledge regarding the potential effects of future changes in climate on boreal vegetation. Furthermore, it is essential to consider both regional and local factors in order to better understand the processes behind the boreal forest dynamics. The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. Statistical method variation partitioning was employed to assess the relative importance of these three variables. Fossil pollen data reflecting long-term boreal forest composition, at both regional (lake records) and local (small hollow records) scales from Russia, Finland and Sweden, were used as response matrix. Climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings were used as potential drivers of long-term boreal vegetation. Though the results clearly demonstrate that climate is the main driver of long-term vegetation changes at the regional scale, the role of climate notably is smaller at local scale and the influence of local site specific factors increases. However, the relative importance of forest fires on long-term changes in boreal forest composition remain generally low both at regional and local scale. The relatively low importance of both climate and forest fires on the variation in long-term boreal forest composition at local scale demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. In general, the relative importance of human population size on long-term changes in boreal vegetation was low. However, this was the first time that this type of human population size data was statistically

  4. The Population Impact of Long-term Use of Aspirin and Risk of Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Yin; Nishihara, Reiko; Wu, Kana; Wang, Molin; Ogino, Shuji; Willett, Walter C.; Spiegelman, Donna; Fuchs, Charles S.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2016-01-01

    Importance The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended the use of aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease among many U.S adults. However, the association of aspirin on risk of other cancer types, and aspirin’s potential population-wide impact on cancer, particularly within the context of screening, remain uncertain. Objective To examine potential benefits of aspirin use for overall and subtype-specific cancer prevention, at a range of doses and duration of use, and estimate the absolute benefit of aspirin in the context of screening. Design Two large prospective cohort studies: the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980–2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986–2012). Setting Health professionals in the United States Participants 88,084 women and 47,881 men participating in the NHS and HPFS who reported aspirin use biennially. Main Outcome Measures Relative risks (RRs) for incident cancers and population attributable risk (PAR). Results During up to 32 years of follow-up, we documented 20,414 cancers among women and 7,571 among men. Compared with nonregular use, regular aspirin use was associated with lower risk of overall cancer (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99), which was primarily due to a lower incidence of gastrointestinal cancers (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80, 0.91), especially colorectal cancers (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.75, 0.88). The benefit of aspirin on gastrointestinal cancers appeared evident with use of at least 0.5 to 1.5 standard aspirin tablets per week; the minimum duration of regular use associated with lower risk was 6 years. Among individuals aged over 50, regular aspirin use could prevent 33 colorectal cancers (PAR 17.0%) among those who have not undergone a lower endoscopy and 18 colorectal cancers per 100,000 person-years (PAR 8.5%) among those who have. Regular aspirin use was not associated with risk of breast, advanced prostate, or lung cancer. Conclusions and Relevance Long-term aspirin use was

  5. Changes in microbial populations of WPC34 and WPC80 whey protein during long term storage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The use of whey protein (WPC34 and WPC80) as a food ingredient and as a base for making biodegradable products is increasing. The need to alleviate world hunger in arid and semi-arid regions demands that we investigate the behavior of native bacteria in these products, especially during long term st...

  6. Long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery: a retrospective study in a population of 379 cases.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shengkun; Lin, Zhiguo; Liu, Li; Pu, Song; Wang, Haiyang; Wang, Jiabin; Xie, Chuncheng; Yang, Changlin; Li, Meng; Shen, Hong

    2014-03-01

    We evaluated the long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery in drug-resistant epilepsy patients, and investigated preoperative factors associated with postoperative long-term surgical outcome. We performed a retrospective study of 379 patients who received epilepsy surgeries from 2000 to 2010. Patients had completed a minimum of 2-year and up to 12-year follow-up. Preoperative evaluations, surgical outcomes and clinical data of patients were collected and analyzed. We found that the epilepsy surgery was effective in drug-resistant patients and the long-term outcome of epilepsy surgery was satisfactory. The bipolar electro-coagulation could improve the surgical outcome when the epileptogenic focus was on the functional cortex. Results of the 2-year follow-up showed that preoperative seizure characteristics including the history of febrile seizure, seizure frequency, and location, quantity and range of seizure foci were significantly associated with the surgical outcome. The surgery procedure including the surgery type and the extent of resection also affected outcome. Abnormal head or hippocampus MRI, inconsistent results of preoperative investigations, seizure types, and pathology type might also be predictors of long-term surgical outcome. PMID:24461543

  7. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study

    PubMed Central

    Loane, Maria; de Walle, Hermien; Arriola, Larraitz; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Beres, Judit; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Klungsoyr, Kari; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary T; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Sipek, Antonin; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2015-01-01

    Study question What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? Methods This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. Summary answer and limitations Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. What this study adds In the absence of mandatory fortification

  8. Anemia on Admission Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Hip Fracture Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Licheng; Yin, Pengbin; Lv, Houchen; Long, Anhua; Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Lihai; Tang, Peifu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Anemia is a disputable factor for long-term mortality in hip fracture population in previous studies. Previous studies indicated that the level of hemoglobin (Hb) might fluctuate due to various factors, such as comorbidities and in-hospital interventions, and the changing level of Hb, may lead to discordance diagnosis of anemia and thus to the conflicting conclusions on prognostic value of anemia. So in this study, we aim to compare factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia at different time-points, admission, postoperation, and discharge, and to determine which the time point is most suitable for mortality prediction. This prospective cohort study included 1330 hip fracture patients from 1 January 2000 to 18 November 2012. Hb levels at 3 different time points, such as admission, postoperation, and discharge, were collected and used to stratify the cohort into anemia and nonanemia groups. Candidate factors including commodities, perioperative factors, blood transfusion, and other in-hospital interventions were collected before discharge. Logistic regression analyses were performed to detect risk factors for anemia for the 3 time points separately. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between anemia and 2-year mortality. Factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia were different for the 3 time points. Age, female sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA), and intertrochanteric fracture were associated with admission anemia, while surgical procedure, surgical duration, blood transfusion, blood loss during the operation, and drainage volume were major risk factors for postoperation anemia. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis suggested that the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in the anemia group on admission (1.680, 95%CI: 1.201–2.350, P < 0.01), but not postoperation or on discharge, after adjustment for confounding factors. Our study showed that risk factors for anemia

  9. Long-term transients and complex dynamics of a stage-structured population with time delay and the Allee effect.

    PubMed

    Morozov, A Yu; Banerjee, M; Petrovskii, S V

    2016-05-01

    Traditionally, mathematical modeling in population ecology is mainly focused on asymptotic behavior of the model, i.e. as given by the system attractors. Recently, however, transient regimes and especially long-term transients have been recognized as playing a crucial role in the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, long-term transients are a potential explanation of ecological regime shifts, when an apparently healthy population suddenly collapses and goes extinct. In this paper, we show that the interplay between delay in maturation and a strong Allee effect can result in long-term transients in a single species system. We first derive a simple 'conceptual' model of the population dynamics that incorporates both a strong Allee effect and maturation delay. Unlike much of the previous work, our approach is not empirical since our model is derived from basic principles. We show that the model exhibits a high complexity in its asymptotic dynamics including multi-periodic and chaotic attractors. We then show the existence of long-term transient dynamics in the system, when the population size oscillates for a long time between locally stable stationary states before it eventually settles either at the persistence equilibrium or goes extinct. The parametric space of the model is found to have a complex structure with the basins of attraction corresponding to the persistence and extinction states being of a complicated shape. This impedes the prediction of the eventual fate of the population, as a small variation in the maturation delay or the initial population size can either bring the population to extinction or ensure its persistence. PMID:26921467

  10. Long-term follow-up of endoscopic third ventriculostomy performed in the pediatric population.

    PubMed

    Stovell, Matthew G; Zakaria, Rasheed; Ellenbogen, Jonathan R; Gallagher, Mathew J; Jenkinson, Michael D; Hayhurst, Caroline; Mallucci, Conor L

    2016-06-01

    OBJECTIVE Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) is an effective treatment for obstructive hydrocephalus and avoids the risk for foreign-body infection associated with ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunts. The short-term failure rate of ETV strongly depends on the indications for its use but is generally thought to be lower in the long term than that of VP shunts. However, few studies are available with long-term follow-up data of ETV for hydrocephalus in children. The authors reviewed the long-term success of ETV at their institution to investigate the rate of any late failures of this procedure. METHODS Between April 1998 and June 2006, 113 children (including neonates and children up to 16 years old) had primary or secondary ETV for different causes of hydrocephalus. The patients' medical records and the authors' electronic operation database were reviewed for evidence of additional surgery (i.e., repeat ETV or VP shunt insertion). These records were checked at both the pediatric and adult neurosurgical hospitals for those patients who had their care transferred to adult services. RESULTS The median length of follow-up was 8.25 years (range 1 month to 16 years). Long-term follow-up data for 96 patients were available, 47 (49%) of whom had additional ETV or VP shunt insertion for ETV failure. Twenty patients (21%) had a second procedure within 1 month, 17 patients (18%) between 1 and 12 months, 7 patients (7%) between 1 and 5 years, and 3 patients (3%) between 5 and 8 years. CONCLUSIONS In the authors' series, ETV had an initial early failure rate for the treatment of pediatric hydrocephalus as reported previously, and this rate significantly depended on patient age and hydrocephalus etiology. Once stabilized and effective, ETV appeared to be durable but not guaranteed, and some late decline in effectiveness was observed, with some ETV failures occurring many years later. Thus, successful ETV in children cannot be guaranteed for life, and some form of follow-up is

  11. Long-Term Population-Based Cerebral Ischemic Event and Cognitive Outcomes of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Compared With Warfarin Among Long-term Anticoagulated Patients for Atrial Fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Victoria; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Stevens, Scott M; Weiss, J Peter; Woller, Scott C; Bunch, T Jared

    2016-07-15

    Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been used in clinical practice in the United States for the last 4 to 6 years. Although DOACs may be an attractive alternative to warfarin in many patients, long-term outcomes of use of these medications are unknown. We performed a propensity-matched analysis to report patient important outcomes of death, stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), bleeding, major bleeding, and dementia in patients taking a DOAC or warfarin. Patients receiving long-term anticoagulation from June 2010 to December 2014 for thromboembolism prevention with either warfarin or a DOAC were matched 1:1 by index date and propensity score. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was performed to determine the risk of death, stroke/TIA, major bleed, and dementia by the anticoagulant therapy received. A total of 5,254 patients were studied (2,627 per group). Average age was 72.4 ± 10.9 years, and 59.0% were men. Most patients were receiving long-term anticoagulation for AF management (warfarin: 96.5% vs DOAC: 92.7%, p <0.0001). Rivaroxaban (55.3%) was the most commonly used DOAC, followed by apixaban (22.5%) and dabigatran (22.2%). The use of DOACs compared with warfarin was associated with a reduced risk of long-term adverse outcomes: death (p = 0.09), stroke/TIA (p <0.0001), major bleed (p <0.0001), and bleed (p = 0.14). No significant outcome variance was noted in DOAC-type comparison. In the AF multivariable model patients taking DOAC were 43% less likely to develop stroke/TIA/dementia (hazard ratio 0.57 [CI 0.17, 1.97], p = 0.38) than those taking warfarin. Our community-based results suggest better long-term efficacy and safety of DOACs compared with warfarin. DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of cerebral ischemic events and new-onset dementia. PMID:27236255

  12. Bowel, Urinary, and Sexual Problems Among Long-Term Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Mols, Floortje Korfage, Ida J.; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Kil, Paul J.M.; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain insight into the long-term (5- to 10-year) effects of prostate cancer and treatment on bowel, urinary, and sexual function, we performed a population-based study. Prostate-specific function was compared with an age-matched normative population without prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Through the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry, we selected all men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1994 and 1998 in the southern Netherlands. In total, 964 patients, alive in November 2004, received questionnaire; 780 (81%) responded. Results: Urinary problems were most common after a prostatectomy; bowel problems were most common after radiotherapy. Compared with an age-matched normative population both urinary and bowel functioning and bother were significantly worse among survivors. Urinary incontinence was reported by 23-48% of survivors compared with 4% of the normative population. Bowel leakage occurred in 5-14% of patients compared with 2% of norms. Erection problems occurred in 40-74% of patients compared with 18% of norms. Conclusions: These results form an important contribution to the limited information available on prostate-specific problems in the growing group of long-term prostate cancer survivors. Bowel, urinary, and sexual problems occur more often among long-term survivors compared with a reference group and cannot be explained merely by age. Because these problems persist for many years, urologists should provide patients with adequate information before treatment. After treatment, there should be an appropriate focus on these problems.

  13. The implications of long term community involvement for the production and circulation of population knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Madhavan, Sangeetha; Collinson, Mark; Townsend, Nicholas W.; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.

    2010-01-01

    Demographic surveillance systems (DSS) depend on community acceptance and involvement to produce high quality longitudinal data. Ensuring community support also exposes power relations usually concealed in the research process. We discuss the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa to argue that: 1) long-term presence and community involvement contribute to high response rates and data quality, 2) to maintain community support the project must demonstrate its usefulness, 3) reporting to community members provides valuable checks on the local relevance and comprehension of questions, and 4) community opinion can modify both wording and content of research questions. PMID:20396402

  14. Population Growth in High-Amenity Rural Areas: Does it Bring Socioeconomic Benefits for Long-Term Residents?

    PubMed Central

    Onge, Jarron M. Saint; Hunter, Lori M.; Boardman, Jason D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective A widely noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to yield only low-wage service-sector employment for long-term residents, while raising local costs of living. This research examines change in socioeconomic status during the 1990s for long-term residents of high-amenity, high-growth rural counties in the United States. Methods Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, in combination with county-level information, we estimate growth-curve models to examine the extent to which the socioeconomic status of long-term residents is associated with amenity-related in-migration. Results We find that, on average, residents in high-growth, amenity-rich rural areas have higher income growth over time and higher levels of initial occupational prestige compared to those from other rural areas, but that socioeconomic gains are primarily for individuals with low baseline prestige. Conclusions The socioeconomic gains made by long-term residents of high-growth, amenity-rich rural areas associated with net in-migration may be limited to individuals with low initial prestige and growth may be due to low-skill service-sector jobs. PMID:21892234

  15. Some Consequences of Demographic Stochasticity in Population Genetics

    PubMed Central

    Parsons, Todd L.; Quince, Christopher; Plotkin, Joshua B.

    2010-01-01

    Much of population genetics is based on the diffusion limit of the Wright–Fisher model, which assumes a fixed population size. This assumption is violated in most natural populations, particularly for microbes. Here we study a more realistic model that decouples birth and death events and allows for a stochastically varying population size. Under this model, classical quantities such as the probability of and time before fixation of a mutant allele can differ dramatically from their Wright–Fisher expectations. Moreover, inferences about natural selection based on Wright–Fisher assumptions can yield erroneous and even contradictory conclusions: at small population densities one allele will appear superior, whereas at large densities the other allele will dominate. Consequently, competition assays in laboratory conditions may not reflect the outcome of long-term evolution in the field. These results highlight the importance of incorporating demographic stochasticity into basic models of population genetics. PMID:20457879

  16. Landscape resistance to dispersal: simulating long-term effects of human disturbance on a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Stronen, Astrid V; Schumaker, Nathan H; Forbes, Graham J; Paquet, Paul C; Brook, Ryan K

    2012-11-01

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part, through the effects it has on individual dispersal. In addition, some forms of human disturbance impinge on dispersal without physically fragmenting habitats. Here, we use the term "landscape resistance" to capture constraints to dispersal that cannot be linked directly to fragmentation. The extent to which landscape resistance can influence population persistence is not well understood. Agricultural development over the past 60 years has resulted in considerable habitat fragmentation in the Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) region in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. We examined how park boundaries, roads outside park boundaries and negative human attitudes have altered dispersal success and population persistence. We examined whether stochastic disturbance, representing infectious disease epidemics, further reduced long-term population persistence for various scenarios. Finally, we assessed whether the simultaneous occurrence of the three features had additive effects. We simulated dispersal using HexSim, a spatially explicit individual-based population model, parameterised with data on wolves (Canis lupus) in the RMNP region. Simulations that separately accounted for negative human attitudes and roads outside the park boundaries exhibited lower mean population size than those that ignored these details. Increasing deflection from park boundaries did not appear to have significant impacts. Our results did not indicate the presence of additive effects, and scenarios incorporating all three features had similar results as that of roads. Stochastic disturbance further reduced mean population size. Our results do illustrate how less-visible human disturbances (i.e. those that do not clearly alter landscape characteristics) can significantly limit dispersal and population persistence. PMID:22146824

  17. Long-term consequences of high incubation temperature in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

    2016-04-01

    Because incubation by birds is energetically costly, parents frequently trade off investment in incubation against self-maintenance. This can be manifested by a reduction in incubation temperature, which comes at high somatic costs for nestlings. The extent to which these costs constrain fitness is poorly understood. We incubated wild blue tit clutches at three biologically relevant temperatures and subsequently recorded winter survival and survival to the breeding season. Fledglings from the coldest treatment (35.0°C) survived less well than other fledglings, but the proportion of winter and breeding survivors did not differ significantly between treatments. However, survival probability in both seasons increased with body mass at fledging in birds from low and mid incubation temperatures, but decreased with fledging body mass in the high-temperature treatment. Mid-temperature nestlings were heavier as adults, weighing 7% more than low- and high-temperature survivors. Thus, high incubation temperature can be beneficial in the short term, but costs of accelerated embryonic development may equal those of protracted development in the long term. Such hidden consequences of faster development could maintain natural selection for average incubation temperature. PMID:27048468

  18. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning.

    PubMed

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  19. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-07-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses.

  20. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  1. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  2. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  3. Short and long term neuro-behavioral alterations in type 1 diabetes mellitus pediatric population

    PubMed Central

    Litmanovitch, Edna; Geva, Ronny; Rachmiel, Marianna

    2015-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions affecting individuals under the age of 18 years, with increasing incidence worldwide, especially among very young age groups, younger than 5. There is still no cure for the disease, and therapeutic goals and guidelines are a challenge. Currently, despite T1DM intensive management and technological interventions in therapy, the majority of pediatric patients do not achieve glycemic control goals. This leads to a potential prognosis of long term diabetic complications, nephrological, cardiac, ophthalmological and neurological. Unfortunately, the neurological manifestations, including neurocognitive and behavioral complications, may present soon after disease onset, during childhood and adolescence. These manifestations may be prominent, but at times subtle, thus they are often not reported by patients or physicians as related to the diabetes. Furthermore, the metabolic mechanism for such manifestations has been inconsistent and difficult to interpret in practical clinical care, as reported in several reviews on the topic of brain and T1DM. However, new technological methods for brain assessment, as well as the introduction of continuous glucose monitoring, provide new insights and information regarding brain related manifestations and glycemic variability and control parameters, which may impact the clinical care of children and youth with T1DM. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recently reported behavioral, cognitive domains, sleep related, electrophysiological, and structural alterations in children and adolescences from a novel point of view. The review focuses on reported impairments based on duration of T1DM, its timeline, and modifiable disease related risk parameters. These findings are not without controversy, and limitations of data are presented in addition to recommendations for future research direction. PMID:25789107

  4. The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Michael

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum. PMID:27294474

  5. Police use of handcuffs in the homeless population leads to long-term negative attitudes within this group.

    PubMed

    Krameddine, Yasmeen I; Silverstone, Peter H

    2016-01-01

    The police interact with homeless individuals frequently. However, there has been relatively little research on the attitudes of homeless individuals towards the police, and how police interactions may impact these. This is important since the attitudes of homeless individuals can impact how often they report crimes, and how well they support police when they are investigating crimes in this population. We interviewed 213 homeless individuals in a single city, representing approximately 10% of the total homeless population. They were interviewed at either homeless shelters, or events held specifically for the homeless population. Of these individuals, 75% were male, and 47% had interacted with a police officer within the past month. Self-reports suggested that 60% had a drug and/or alcohol issue and 78% had a mental illness. We found a highly statistically significant difference between the group that had been handcuffed and/or arrested compared to those that had not. This was across multiple domains and included how the individual regarded the police in terms of their empathy and communication skills, and how much they trusted the police. These changes were long-term, and if a homeless individual had been arrested or handcuffed (and verbal reporting suggested that being handcuffed was the by far the most important factor) then these negative attitudes lasted at least 2 years. The primary conclusion from this study is that when police handcuff a homeless individual, this can lead to long-term negative views about the police across several domains that appear to be long lasting, and were linked to feelings of not being respected by the police. It is therefore proposed that police officers should be made aware of the potential long-term negative consequences of this single action, and that police forces should consider providing specific training to minimize any unnecessary overuse of handcuffs. PMID:26314889

  6. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans’ Population after Hurricane Katrina

    PubMed Central

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility – both evacuation and migration – after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster. PMID:26880853

  7. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: Pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed Central

    Homewood, K.; Lambin, E. F.; Coast, E.; Kariuki, A.; Kikula, I.; Kivelia, J.; Said, M.; Serneels, S.; Thompson, M.

    2001-01-01

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use. PMID:11675492

  8. Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

    2015-06-01

    Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

  9. Extinction of metastable stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

    2010-02-01

    We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B. PMID:20365539

  10. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-04-10

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  11. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  12. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

    PubMed

    Vershinin, Vladimir L; Vershinina, Svetlana D; Berzin, Dmitry L; Zmeeva, Darya V; Kinev, Alexander V

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  13. Long-term variation of fiddler crab populations in North Carolina salt marshes

    SciTech Connect

    Cammen, L.M.; Seneca, E.D.; Stroud, L.M.

    1984-06-01

    As part of the environmental monitoring of possible effects of the Brunswick nuclear power plant fiddle crab populations were sampled in several salt marshes in the lower Cape Fear River estuary, North Carolina for five years. Total biomass of the fiddler crabs Uca Pugnax and U. minax in four Spartina marshes declined by 65 to 70% between the summers of 1974-1975 and 1976-1977 with no significant decrease in population density; there was evidence of a recovery in summer of 1978 to the 1974-1975 levels. The cause of these fluctuations is unknown, but such a degree of variability in intertidal populations emphasizes the need for caution in using one or two-year baseline studies to evalute potential environmental impacts. 1 figure, 2 table.

  14. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

    PubMed Central

    Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-01-01

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  15. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Amelon, Sybill K.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus

  16. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species - little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) - in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999-2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide

  17. Long-Term Benefits of Full-Day Kindergarten: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownell, M. D.; Nickel, N. C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P. J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C. Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were…

  18. Long-term changes in a population of an invasive bivalve and its effects.

    PubMed

    Strayer, David L; Cid, Nuria; Malcom, Heather M

    2011-04-01

    Although the ecological and economic effects of non-native species probably often change through time, few studies have documented such effects. The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is an important invader that has had large ecological and economic effects on the ecosystems it has invaded in North America and western Europe. Our 20-year study of the Hudson River, New York, showed that the characteristics of a zebra mussel population and its effects on other benthic animals both changed substantially through time. Over the period of study, annual survivorship of adult zebra mussels fell >100-fold, which caused the aggregate filtration rate of the population to fall by 82%. Population size and body size of zebra mussels may also have fallen. In the early years of the invasion, densities of nearly all benthic animals in deepwater sites fell steeply (by 80-99%). After about 8 years of decline, these populations began to recover, and are approaching pre-invasion densities. The littoral zoobenthos showed neither the initial decline nor the subsequent recovery. Although the mechanisms behind these changes are not fully clear, our study shows that the effects of an invader may change considerably over time. PMID:20922431

  19. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a ...

  20. Bacterial populations within copper mine tailings: long-term effects of amendment with Class A biosolids

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This study evaluates the effect of surface application of dried Class A biosolids on microbial populations within copper mine tailings. Methods and Results: Mine tailing sites were established at ASARCO Mission Mine close to Sahuarita, Arizona. Site 1 (Dec. 1998) was amended with 248 tons ha-1 of C...

  1. Long-term population, productivity, and energy use trends in the sequence of leading capitalist nations.

    SciTech Connect

    LePoire, D. J.

    2010-10-01

    There are many theories on why sustainable science, technology, and commerce emerged first in Western Europe rather than elsewhere. A general theory is that the geography of Europe facilitated the development of diverse and independent states and resultant competition among them. Over the past 500 years, the sequence of leading states began with Portugal and the Netherlands on the edge of continental Western Europe, then moved to the British Isles, and finally moved across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States. The transitions of leadership from one state to another occurred about every 100 years. This sequence suggests that leadership moves from smaller states to larger states (although not to the largest existing state at the time), perhaps because larger states have the flexibility to develop more complex organizational processes and adapt new technology. To explore this theory further, this paper analyzes state population data at the beginning and end of each leadership period. The data reveal an accelerating initial population sequence. Further understanding is gained from comparing the populations of the preceding and succeeding states at the time of each transition: the succeeding state's population is usually about two times larger than that of the preceding state. It is also seen that over time, the new organizational processes and technologies developed by the leading state are diffused and adapted by other states. Evidence of the effects of this diffusion should be seen in the dynamics of relative productivity and energy use (since the relative advantage of new ideas and technology can be maintained for a short period of about 100 years). This paper investigates these trends in population, trade, and resources to provide insight on possible future transitions.

  2. Estimation of Recent and Long-Term Malaria Transmission in a Population by Antibody Testing to Multiple Plasmodium falciparum Antigens

    PubMed Central

    Ondigo, Bartholomew N.; Hodges, James S.; Ireland, Kathleen F.; Magak, Ng'wena G.; Lanar, David E.; Dutta, Sheetij; Narum, David L.; Park, Gregory S.; Ofulla, Ayub V.; John, Chandy C.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Tools that estimate recent and long-term malaria transmission in a population would be highly useful for malaria elimination programs. Methods. The prevalence of antibodies to 11 Plasmodium falciparum antigens was assessed by cytometric bead assay or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 1000 people in a highland area of Kenya over 14 months, during a period of interrupted malaria transmission. Results. Antibodies differed by antigen in acquisition with age: rapid (>80% antibody positive by age 20 years, 5 antigens), moderate (>40% positive by age 20 years, 3 antigens), or slow (<40% positive by age 20 years, 3 antigens). Antibody seroreversion rates in the 14 months between samples decreased with age rapidly (7 antigens), slowly (3 antigens), or remained high at all ages (schizont extract). Estimated antibody half-lives in individuals >10 years of age were long (40 to >80 years) for 5 antigens, moderate (5–20 years) for 3 antigens, and short (<1 year) for 3 antigens. Conclusions. Antibodies to P. falciparum antigens in malaria-endemic areas vary by age, antigen, and time since last exposure to P. falciparum. Multiplex P. falciparum antibody testing could provide estimates of long-term and recent malaria transmission and potentially of a population's susceptibility to future clinical malaria. PMID:24737801

  3. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  4. Long-term monitoring and population dynamics of ixodid ticks in Tomsk city (Western Siberia).

    PubMed

    Romanenko, Vladimir; Leonovich, Sergei

    2015-05-01

    Monitoring of two tick species (Ixodes persulcatus Schulze 1930 and Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev) was performed in four city parks of Tomsk, Russia (Camp Garden, University Park, Southern Cemetery, and Polytechnic Stadium) and in a control wild biotope in city environs (Kolarovo) in 2002-2013. Ticks were collected by flagging repeatedly after each 10 ± 1 days, starting from the disappearance of the snow cover till the end of tick activity (April-August). Gradual penetration of both tick species into city parks was demonstrated. In the wild biotope, I. persulcatus dominated during the whole period of monitoring, forming about 95% of tick population, whereas in urban biotopes I. pavlovskyi became the dominant species. Two peaks of population density during each season of spring-summer activity were observed in both species. Possible explanations of the phenomena are discussed. PMID:25633264

  5. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England.

    PubMed

    Woodcock, Ben A; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Bullock, James M; Roy, David B; Garthwaite, David G; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  6. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    PubMed Central

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  7. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  8. Chronic hepatitis C: treatment, complications, and long-term outcomes in a population of Latino veterans

    PubMed Central

    Santiago-Rolon, Amarilys; Purcell, Dagmary; Grigg, Nicole; Toro, Doris H.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health problem in Puerto Rico. It is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and the most frequent indication for liver transplantation in the United States." Our main objectives were to estimate the seroprevalence of CHC infection, to describe the demographic and histological parameters of the infection in our sample population, and to evaluate the treatment outcomes in Puerto Rican veterans. Methods To determine overall seroprevalence, we reviewed all the hepatitis C cases (encompassing from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2009) of the VA Caribbean Healthcare System, Department of Veterans Affairs. The records of only those individuals who received treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin were reviewed to determine risks factors for infection, response rates, adverse events, and outcomes. Results During the study period, there were a total of 1,496 patients identified as being infected with HCV, for an estimated seroprevalence of 2.3%. Of these, approximately 10% (137) were treated with combination therapy and were included in this study. The mean age was 58 (±6.4); 96.4% were men. The most common genotype was type 1. The responses to treatment were generally poor, with only 48.4% of the patients achieving Ssustained virological response. Discussion Though the seroprevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the Latino veteran population of Puerto Rico is high, relatively few patients have received treatment, most probably because of the contraindications of the medications used. Combination therapy with pegylated interferon plus weight-based ribavirin was inefficient and plagued with side effects; as a whole, this therapy was not found to be overly beneficial to our patients. New emerging and approved therapies will change this paradigm, allowing the treatment of a larger population without the side effects of the studied therapy. PMID:26932282

  9. Spatial Analysis of Factors Influencing Long-Term Stress in the Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) Population of Alberta, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Cattet, Marc R. L.; Darimont, Chris T.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  10. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  11. Long-term variation of octocoral populations in St. John, US Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Lasker, Howard R.; Edmunds, Peter J.

    2015-12-01

    The decline in abundance of scleractinian corals over the past three decades in the Caribbean has raised the possibility that other important benthic taxa, such as octocorals, are also changing in abundance. We used photoquadrats taken over 20 yr from reefs (7-9 m depth) at six sites on the south coast of St. John, US Virgin Islands, to test the hypothesis that octocorals have changed in abundance since 1992. Octocorals were counted in 0.25 m2 photoquadrats at 2- to 3-yr intervals and identified to genus or family. Overall, there was variation over time in population density of octocorals (pooled among taxa, and also separately for Antillogorgia spp., Gorgonia spp., and plexaurids) at each site, and densities remained unchanged or increased over 20 yr; where increases in density occurred, the effects were accentuated after 2002. The local-scale analysis was expanded to the Caribbean (including the Florida Keys) by compiling data for octocoral densities from 31 studies for reefs at ≤25 m depth between 1968 and 2013. At this scale, analyses were limited by the paucity of historical data, and despite a weak trend of higher octocoral densities in recent decades, statistically, there was no change in octocoral abundance over time. Together with data from the whole Caribbean, the present analysis suggests that octocorals have not experienced a decadal-scale decline in population density, which has occurred for many scleractinian corals.

  12. Cyclic traction machine for long-term culture of fibroblast-populated collagen gels.

    PubMed

    Langelier, E; Rancourt, D; Bouchard, S; Lord, C; Stevens, P P; Germain, L; Auger, F A

    1999-01-01

    Our research group has been investigating the effect of cyclic deformations on the evolution of fibroblast populated collagen gels (FPCG). Since existing traction machines are not designed for such an application, we had to design a cyclic traction machine adapted to tissue culture inside an incubator over an extended period of time. Biocompatible materials were used for fabrication to allow for easy sterilization and to prevent any adverse reaction from the tissue. The traction machine is based on a computer-controlled stepping motor system for easy adjustment of the deformation amplitude and frequency. The maximum stretching speed achieved is around 1 mm/s. The traction machine can measure FPCG mechanical properties and perform rupture tests to determine its ultimate strength. Several FPCGs have been successfully cultured with the machine for up to four weeks without any adverse reaction. PMID:9916762

  13. Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori

    PubMed Central

    Montano, Valeria; Didelot, Xavier; Foll, Matthieu; Linz, Bodo; Reinhardt, Richard; Suerbaum, Sebastian; Moodley, Yoshan; Jensen, Jeffrey D.

    2015-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tipα) and hitherto unknown functional genes. PMID:25995212

  14. Multiple Processes Regulate Long-Term Population Dynamics of Sea Urchins on Mediterranean Rocky Reefs

    PubMed Central

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  15. Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs.

    PubMed

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  16. Long-term morbidity and mortality after hospitalization with community-acquired pneumonia: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, Jennie; Eurich, Dean T; Majumdar, Sumit R; Jin, Yan; Marrie, Thomas J

    2008-11-01

    Little is known about the long-term sequelae of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Therefore, we describe the long-term morbidity and mortality of patients after pneumonia requiring hospitalization. We specifically hypothesized that the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), designed to predict 30-day pneumonia-related mortality, would also be associated with longer-term all-cause mortality. Between 2000 and 2002, 3415 adults with CAP admitted to 6 hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, were prospectively enrolled in a population-based cohort. At the time of hospital admission, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected and the PSI was calculated for each patient. Postdischarge outcomes through to 2006 were ascertained using multiple linked administrative databases. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, and re-hospitalization for pneumonia over a maximum of 5.4 years of follow-up. Follow-up data were available for 3284 (96%) patients; 66%were > or =65 years of age, 53% were male, and according to the PSI fully 63% were predicted to have greater than 18% 30-day pneumonia-related mortality (that is, PSI class IV-V). Median follow-up was 3.8 years. The 30-day, 1-year, and end of study mortality rates were 12%, 28%, and 53%, respectively. Overall, 82(19%) patients aged <45 years died compared with 1456 (67%) patients aged > or =65 years (hazard ratio [HR], 5.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.06-6.34). Male patients were more likely to die than female patients during follow-up (971 [56%] vs. 767 [49%], respectively; HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13-1.37). Initial PSI classification predicted not only 30-day mortality, but also long-term postdischarge mortality, with 92 (15%) of PSI class I-II patients dying compared with 616 (82%) PSI class V patients (HR, 11.80; 95% CI, 4.70-14.70). Of 2950 patients who survived the initial CAP hospitalization, 72% were hospitalized again (median, 2 admissions over follow-up) and 16% were re-hospitalized with

  17. Drastic changes in aquatic bacterial populations from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico) in response to long-term environmental stress.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Silvia; Eguiarte, Luis E; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Souza, Valeria

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the changes of aquatic microbial community composition in response to changes in temperature and ultraviolet irradiation is relevant for predicting biogeochemical modifications in the functioning of natural microbial communities under global climate change scenarios. Herein we investigate shifts in the bacterioplankton composition in response to long-term changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with composite aquatic microbial communities from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexican Chihuahuan desert) and were subject to different temperatures and UV conditions. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were obtained from water samples at the mid-point (4 months) and the end of the experiment (8 months). An increase in bacterial diversity over time was found in the treatment of constant temperature and UV protection, which suggests that stable environments promote the establishment of complex and diverse bacterial community. Drastic changes in the phylogenetic bacterioplankton composition and structure were observed in response to fluctuating temperature and increasing UV radiation and temperature. Fluctuating temperature induced the largest decrease of bacterial richness during the experiment, indicating that frequent temperature changes drive the reduction in abundance of several species, most notably autotrophs. The long-term impact of these environmental stresses reduced diversity and selected for generalist aquatic bacterial populations, such as Porphyrobacter. These changes at the community level occur at an ecological time scale, suggesting that under global warming scenarios cascade effects on the food web are possible if the microbial diversity is modified. PMID:24072549

  18. Acute Anticholinesterase Pesticide Poisoning Caused a Long-Term Mortality Increase: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Weng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

    2015-07-01

    Acute anticholinesterase pesticide (organophosphate and carbamate) poisoning (ACPP) often produces severe complications, and sometimes death. We investigated the long-term mortality of patients with ACPP because it is not sufficiently understood. In this retrospective nationwide population-based cohort study, 818 patients with ACPP and 16,360 healthy comparisons from 1999 to 2010 were selected from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. They were followed until 2011. Ninety-four (11.5%) ACPP patients and 793 (4.9%) comparisons died (P < 0.01) during follow-up. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of death were 2.5 times higher in ACPP patients than in comparisons (P < 0.01). The risk of death was particularly high in the first month after ACPP (IRR: 92.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.0-191.0) and still high for ~6 months (IRR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9-7.4). After adjusting for age, gender, selected comorbidities, geographic area, and monthly income, the hazard ratio of death for ACPP patients was still 2.4 times higher than for comparisons. Older age (≥35 years), male gender, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, hypertension, stroke, mental disorder, and lower monthly income also predicted death. ACPP significantly increased long-term mortality. In addition to early follow-up after acute treatment, comorbidity control and socioeconomic assistance are needed for patients with ACPP. PMID:26222853

  19. Long-term cancer risk after hysterectomy on benign indications: Population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Altman, Daniel; Yin, Li; Falconer, Henrik

    2016-06-01

    Hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for adverse health effects. However, little is known about the association between hysterectomy and subsequent cancer occurrence later in life. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of hysterectomy on the incidence of cancer. In this population-based cohort study, we used data on 111,595 hysterectomized and 537,9843 nonhysterectomized women from nationwide Swedish Health Care registers including the Inpatient Register, the Cancer Register and the Cause of Death Register between 1973 and 2009. Hysterectomy with or without concomitant bilateral salpingo-ophorectomy (BSO) performed on benign indications was considered as exposure and incidence of primary cancers was used as outcome measure. Rare primary cancers (<100 cases for the two groups combined) were excluded from analysis. A marginal risk reduction for any cancer was observed for women with previous hysterectomy and for those with hysterectomy and concurrent BSO (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91-0.95 and HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.96, respectively). Compared to nonhysterectomized women, significant risks were observed for thyroid cancer (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45-2.14). For both hysterectomy and hysterectomy with BSO, an association with brain cancer was observed (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.32-1.65 and HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.15-1.83, respectively). Hysterectomy, with or without BSO, was not associated with breast, lung or gastrointestinal cancer. We conclude that hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for thyroid and brain cancer later in life. Further research efforts are needed to identify patient groups at risk of malignancy following hysterectomy. PMID:26800386

  20. Long-term occupancy trends in a data-poor dugong population in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

    PubMed

    D'Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50 years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959-2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010-2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  1. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve.

    PubMed

    Breitwieser, Marine; Viricel, Amélia; Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  2. Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago

    PubMed Central

    D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  3. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve

    PubMed Central

    Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  4. Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

  5. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  6. Long-term effects of ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the metabolism and population of alveolar macrophages

    SciTech Connect

    Mochitate, K.; Ishida, K.; Ohsumi, T.; Miura, T. )

    1992-04-01

    To investigate how alveolar macrophages adapt themselves to oxidative pollutants in the long term, rats were exposed to a strong oxidant, ozone (O3), or a weak oxidant, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), for a maximum duration of 12 wk. After exposures, alveolar macrophages were collected by pulmonary lavage. Throughout 11 wk of exposure to 0.2 ppm O3, the specific activities of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) and glutathione peroxidase of the peroxidative metabolic pathway and pyruvate kinase and hexokinase of the glycolytic pathway were 40-70% elevated over the controls in alveolar macrophages. The population of alveolar macrophages was consistently 60% higher than the controls. The small-sized macrophages, immature macrophages, preferentially increased. To the contrary, the thymidine incorporation per cell was always 20-30% lower than in the controls, although the total incorporation remained unchanged. No infiltration of polymorphonuclear leukocytes occurred. By 12 wk of exposures to 1.2 and 4.0 ppm NO2, the population of alveolar macrophages increased 30% over the control. Among the enzymes examined, however, only the G6PDH activity increased 10% for 4.0 ppm NO2. No increase in the enzyme activities occurred for 1.2 ppm NO2. Based on these results, alveolar macrophages adapt themselves to the long-term exposure of O3 or NO2 by recruiting immature macrophages through an apparent influx of monocytes. During the exposure to O3, the peroxidative metabolic and glycolytic pathways are enhanced persistently in alveolar macrophages, whereas both pathways were not enhanced by the exposures to NO2.

  7. Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, Robert N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons( Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsenda??s ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 199Os, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  8. Increased Long-Term Risk of Dementia in Patients With Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wong, Chung-Shun; Lin, Ying-Chin; Hong, Li-Yee; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Ma, Hon-Ping; Hsu, Yung-Ho; Tsai, Shin-Han; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Wu, Mei-Yi

    2016-01-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning may cause toxicity of the central nervous system and heart. However, the association between CO poisoning and long-term dementia risk remains unestablished. We investigated the incidence of dementia in patients with CO poisoning in Taiwan and evaluated whether they had a higher risk of dementia than did the general population.A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted among patients with CO poisoning identified using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) during 2004 to 2013. CO poisoning was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The study cohort comprised patients with CO poisoning between 2005 and 2010 (N = 14,590). Each patient was age-, sex-, and index date-matched with 4 randomly selected controls from the comparison cohort (N = 58,360). All patients were followed from the study date until dementia development, death, or the end of 2013. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed for comparing the hazard ratios for dementia between the 2 cohorts.Incident cases of dementia were identified from the NHIRD.After adjustment for potential confounders, the study cohort was independently associated with a higher dementia risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 2.26-3.35).This population-based cohort study indicated that patients with CO poisoning have a higher risk of dementia than do people without CO poisoning. PMID:26817904

  9. Long-term Prairie Falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, K.; Kochert, M.N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  10. Prevalence of unknown and untreated arrhythmias in an older outpatient population screened by wireless long-term recording ECG

    PubMed Central

    Lindberg, Terese; Bohman, Doris M; Elmståhl, Sölve; Jogréus, Claes; Sanmartin Berglund, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Purpose With longer life expectancies, the prevalence of arrhythmias is increasing; thus, there is a need for new methods to screen the older outpatient population. This population-based study describes the prevalence of arrhythmias in 200 outpatients aged ≥66 years. We also investigated the feasibility of wireless long-term recording (LTR) using the ECG-BodyKom®. Methods Two hundred elderly persons aged 66–93 years were recruited from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in 2010–2013, and data were collected via wireless LTR ECG-BodyKom. Results Screening with the LTR ECG revealed that persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) occurred in 10% of the outpatient population aged ≥66 years. Paroxysmal AF occurred in 5.5% of the population, with no difference between younger (60–80 years) and older (>80 years) elderly participants. Furthermore, all patients with paroxysmal AF had a CHA2DS2VASc score of ≥2 and were therefore potential candidates for follow-up and medical examination. LTR ECG-BodyKom can be considered a feasible method to screen for arrhythmias in older outpatient populations. This simple method requires little of the user, and there was high satisfaction with the equipment and a good overall experience wearing it. Conclusion The increasing occurrence of arrhythmias in the older population, as well as the high number of untreated cases of arrhythmias such as persistent AF and paroxysmal AF, poses a challenge for health care. Therefore, it is essential to develop effective strategies for their prevention and treatment. PMID:27570450

  11. Genetic evidence for long-term population decline in a savannah-dwelling primate: inferences from a hierarchical bayesian model.

    PubMed

    Storz, Jay F; Beaumont, Mark A; Alberts, Susan C

    2002-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to test for evidence that savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) underwent a population expansion in concert with a hypothesized expansion of African human and chimpanzee populations during the late Pleistocene. The rationale is that any type of environmental event sufficient to cause simultaneous population expansions in African humans and chimpanzees would also be expected to affect other codistributed mammals. To test for genetic evidence of population expansion or contraction, we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus microsatellite data using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations were used to estimate the posterior probability density of demographic and genealogical parameters. The model was designed to allow interlocus variation in mutational and demographic parameters, which made it possible to detect aberrant patterns of variation at individual loci that could result from heterogeneity in mutational dynamics or from the effects of selection at linked sites. Results of the MCMC simulations were consistent with zero variance in demographic parameters among loci, but there was evidence for a 10- to 20-fold difference in mutation rate between the most slowly and most rapidly evolving loci. Results of the model provided strong evidence that savannah baboons have undergone a long-term historical decline in population size. The mode of the highest posterior density for the joint distribution of current and ancestral population size indicated a roughly eightfold contraction over the past 1,000 to 250,000 years. These results indicate that savannah baboons apparently did not share a common demographic history with other codistributed primate species. PMID:12411607

  12. Long-term data reveal a population decline of the tropical lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a negative affect of el nino years on population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence. PMID:25671423

  13. Short- and long-term morbidity and mortality in the population exposed to dioxin after the "Seveso accident".

    PubMed

    Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Consonni, Dario; Bachetti, Silvia; Zocchetti, Carlo; Bonzini, Matteo; Baccarelli, Andrea; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto

    2003-07-01

    The early effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-para-dioxin (TCDD) exposure in the population involved in the Seveso, Italy, incident in 1976, have been examined in numerous studies. Chloracne was the only effect linked with sufficient certainty to dioxin exposure. The possible long-term consequences were investigated with mortality and cancer incidence studies. Mortality and morbidity findings during the 20-year period following the accident showed increased risk from lymphoemopoietic neoplasm, digestive system cancer (rectum in males, and biliary tract among females, in particular) and respiratory system cancer (lung, among males). In the incidence analyses, also thyroid gland and pleura cancer appeared suggestively increased. Soft tissue sarcomas showed an increase in the largest, yet least exposed, exposure sub-cohort. Several hypotheses associating non-cancer effects with dioxin exposure were corroborated by findings in the Seveso population: this was the case with cardiovascular effects (possibly linked to both chemical exposure and stressful disaster experience), endocrine effects (diabetes among females) and reproductive effects: exposure of men to TCDD was linked to a lowered male/female sex ratio in their offspring. The results of many Seveso studies point to possible gender effects, in accordance with animal models. Notwithstanding the acknowledged study limitations (lack of individual exposure markers, short latency, and small population size for certain cancer types), results of previous experimental and epidemiological studies, along with mechanistic knowledge on dioxin toxicity, support the hypotheses that the observed excesses might be associated with dioxin exposure. The mortality and cancer incidence follow-up of the Seveso cohort are continuing. PMID:12916742

  14. Cause-specific long-term mortality in survivors of childhood cancer in Switzerland: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Matthias; Spycher, Ben D; Ammann, Roland A; Ansari, Marc; Michel, Gisela; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2016-07-15

    Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year-, and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3,965 survivors and 49,704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. PMID:26950898

  15. Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence. PMID:25671423

  16. Gaps in understanding health and engagement with healthcare providers across common long-term conditions: a population survey of health literacy in 29 473 Danish citizens

    PubMed Central

    Friis, Karina; Lasgaard, Mathias; Osborne, Richard H; Maindal, Helle T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To (1) quantify levels of subjective health literacy in people with long-term health conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, musculoskeletal disorders, cancer and mental disorders) and compare these to levels in the general population and (2) examine the association between health literacy, socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidity in each long-term condition group. Design Population-based survey in the Central Denmark Region (n=29 473). Main outcome measures Health literacy was measured using two scales from the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ): (1) Ability to understand health information and (2) Ability to actively engage with healthcare providers. Results People with long-term conditions reported more difficulties than the general population in understanding health information and actively engaging with healthcare providers. Wide variation was found between disease groups, with people with cancer having fewer difficulties and people with mental health disorders having more difficulties in actively engaging with healthcare providers than other long-term condition groups. Having more than one long-term condition was associated with more difficulty in engaging with healthcare providers and understanding health information. People with low levels of education had lower health literacy than people with high levels of education. Conclusions Compared with the general population, people with long-term conditions report more difficulties in understanding health information and engaging with healthcare providers. These two dimensions are critical to the provision of patient-centred healthcare and for optimising health outcomes. More effort should be made to respond to the health literacy needs among individuals with long-term conditions, multiple comorbidities and low education levels, to improve health outcomes and to reduce social inequality in health. PMID:26769783

  17. Population-based enrolment of adolescents in a long-term follow-up trial of human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy.

    PubMed

    Lehtinen, M; Idänpään-Heikkilä, I; Lunnas, T; Palmroth, J; Barr, E; Cacciatore, R; Isaksson, R; Kekki, M; Koskela, P; Kosunen, E; Kuortti, M; Lahti, L; Liljamo, T; Luostarinen, T; Apter, D; Pukkala, E; Paavonen, J

    2006-04-01

    We evaluated a study setting for assessment of the long-term vaccine efficacy (VE) of human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine against cervical carcinoma. A total of 22,412 16- to 17-year old adolescent women from seven cities in Finland were invited by letter to participate in a phase III study of a quadrivalent HPV (types 6, 11, 16, 18) VLP vaccine, between September 2002 and March 2003. A total of 30,947 18-year old women were invited to participate as unvaccinated controls. These women were asked about their willingness to participate in an HPV vaccination trial and to fill a health questionnaire. These three population-based cohorts of adolescent women, including women vaccinated with HPV vaccine or placebo vaccine and unvaccinated control women, are systematically followed over time. The study cohort database will be linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry using cervical carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) as endpoints. Assuming that the cumulative incidence of CIS and ICC over 15 years is 0.45%, and that there is no loss to follow-up, and power of 80%, the determination of 70% total VE will require 3357 HPV vaccine recipients, 3357 placebo vaccine recipients, and 6714 unvaccinated controls. At the baseline, 2632 (12%) of the invited adolescents volunteered to the phase III vaccination trial, and 6790 (22%) responded to the questionnaire study. During a recruitment period of 10 months, 874 HPV vaccine recipients, 875 placebo recipients and 1919 unvaccinated controls were enrolled. Population-based enrollment of large cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated adolescents for passive registry-based follow-up with cervical carcinoma as the end-point is feasible and currently going on in Finland. PMID:16595046

  18. Cadmium-Related Mortality and Long-Term Secular Trends in the Cadmium Body Burden of an Environmentally Exposed Population

    PubMed Central

    Nawrot, Tim S.; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A.; Staessen, Jan A.

    2008-01-01

    Background Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. Objective We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Methods Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. Results From 1985–1989 to 1991–1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p < 0.0001 for between-area difference). From 1991–1996 until 2001–2003, BCd remained unchanged in the HEA (+ 1.8%) and increased by 19.7% in the LEA (p < 0.0001). Over the entire follow-up period, the annual decrease in BCd averaged 2.7% in the LEA (n = 258) and 1.8% in the HEA (n = 203). From 1985–1989 to 1991–1996, UCd fell by 12.9% in the LEA and by 16.6% in the HEA (p = 0.22), with mean annual decreases of 2.7% (n = 366) and 3.4% (n = 364). Over 20.3 years (median), 206 deaths (21.5%) occurred. At baseline, BCd (14.6 vs. 10.2 nmol/L) and UCd (14.1 vs. 8.6 nmol/24-hr) were higher in deaths than in survivors. The risks (p ≤ 0.04) associated with a doubling of baseline UCd were 20% and 44% for total and noncardiovascular mortality, and 25% and 33% for a doubling of BCd. Conclusions Even if zinc–cadmium smelters close, historical environmental contamination remains a persistent source of exposure. Environmental exposure to cadmium increases total and noncardiovascular mortality in a continuous fashion without threshold. PMID:19079711

  19. Short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on benthic communities and ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations.

    PubMed

    Ragnarsson, Stefán Áki; Thorarinsdóttir, Gudrún G; Gunnarsson, Karl

    2015-08-01

    The short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations and on non-target organisms were examined in Þistilfjörður Bay, NE Iceland over a five-year period. The overall species richness was low and the fauna was composed of species typical of sandy seabeds characterised by frequent wave-induced disturbances. The initial effects of dredging on the overall benthic community were large. Most taxa were significantly affected by dredging, with abundances sometimes decreasing or increasing by more than 50% immediately after dredging. However, with the exception of the ocean quahog, their recovery was rapid, and most taxa attained similar abundances as in the undisturbed control sediments after three months, and all did so after about a year. The effects of dredging on ocean quahogs were drastic and long-lasting. Of the original ocean quahog biomass before fishing took place, the dredge captured 82%, while a further 11% was lost as a result of mortality due to shell damage and predation. The total direct and indirect loss of ocean quahog biomass within dredged tracks due to fishing was thus 93%. The recovery of ocean quahogs in fished areas was extremely slow. Five years after dredging, the total ocean quahog biomass in tracks had increased from 7% to 26% relative to that in the controls. The proportional increase among ocean quahogs of targeted sizes (>70 mm) was from 2% to 14% over the same period. This study shows that while the longer-term effects of hydraulic dredging on non-target benthic organisms were small, the effects of dredging on ocean quahog densities were drastic, with full recovery expected to take place on decadal time-scales. The impacts of dredging on ocean quahog populations at the scale of the fishery are discussed. PMID:26149090

  20. Association of folate deficiency and selected tumor marker concentrations in long-term hexavalent chromium exposed population.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tian-Cheng; Song, Yan-Shuang; Yu, Shan-Fa; Zhang, Ji; Wang, Hui; Gu, Yong-En; Chen, Tian; Jia, Guang

    2014-01-01

    Both hexavalent chromium [Cr (VI)] exposure and folate deficiency have been associated with increased cancer risks. Our previous studies have found folate deficiency in Cr (VI) exposed population. Here the relationship between some tumor markers and folate status in long-term Cr (VI) exposure was investigated carefully to show the multiple aspects of Cr (VI) carcinogenesis. A group of 115 workers occupationally exposed to chromate and 60 matched, unexposed controls in Shandong province of China were recruited. Environmental and biological exposure assessments including personal exposure to airborne Cr and Cr contents in erythrocytes were performed. Serum folate, plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) and plasma carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), neuron specific enolase (NSE), squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC), cytokeratin fragment antigen 21-1 (CYFRA 21-1), cancer antigen 72-4 (CA72-4), as well as α-fetoprotein (AFP) were measured. Smoking index (SI) was also calculated to discriminate possible confounding effects of smoking status. Serum folate level decreased significantly, while plasma tHcy, CEA, NSE, SCC, CYFRA21-1, CA72-4 and AFP concentrations increased significantly after Cr (VI) exposure. Meanwhile, plasma CEA, NSE and SCC were negatively correlated with serum folate. SI was negatively correlated with serum folate but positively correlated with plasma tHcy, CEA and NSE levels. Present study suggests that folate deficiency was associated with increased cancer risks and might be affected by smoking in Cr (VI) exposed population. Folate might play a key role in Cr (VI) carcinogenesis although further detailed investigations are needed to clarify the mechanism of this process. PMID:23623598

  1. Parental experiences before and long-term after their children's hemispherotomy - A population-based qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Ozanne, Anneli; Verdinelli, Cecilia; Olsson, Ingrid; H Graneheim, Ulla; Malmgren, Kristina

    2016-07-01

    Severe childhood epilepsy has an impact on the whole family. For selected children, hemispherotomy is the treatment of choice. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences before and after hemispherotomy as reported at a long-term follow-up and their view on received information and support. This was a population-based qualitative descriptive study, using qualitative content analysis of interviews. Seven to eighteen years after hemispherotomy, parents of twenty-one operated children were interviewed about the family life situation, expectations before surgery, and support and information before and after surgery. Before surgery, the theme 'Living in a chaotic bubble' illuminates how parents felt: the family lived in isolation, they felt both dissatisfaction and satisfaction about support and information, and they experienced that surgery was a question about life or death. After surgery, the theme 'Hovering between success and disaster' illuminates how parents hovered between happiness if the surgery was successful and sadness about e.g., complications and behavior problems. They experienced both excellent and poor support, in hospital and at rehabilitation. Regardless of all concerns, parents were satisfied that the child had received an operation. The hemispherotomies were successful and generated a better life situation. However, in order to cope, families need support and information throughout the whole process, from the onset of epilepsy and for a long time after surgery. If the child has behavior problems, an assessment should be made before surgery in order for the families to get adequate support. The specialist team needs to be involved as early as possible and follow the families for several years after surgery. Focus should be on the whole family, if needed including grandparents; family-centered care might be relevant for this patient group. PMID:27176878

  2. Randomised controlled trial of the effect of long-term selenium supplementation on plasma cholesterol in an elderly Danish population.

    PubMed

    Cold, Frederik; Winther, Kristian H; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rayman, Margaret P; Guallar, Eliseo; Nybo, Mads; Griffin, Bruce A; Stranges, Saverio; Cold, Søren

    2015-12-14

    Although cross-sectional studies have shown a positive association between Se and cholesterol concentrations, a recent randomised controlled trial in 501 elderly UK individuals of relatively low-Se status found that Se supplementation for 6 months lowered total plasma cholesterol. The Danish PRECISE (PREvention of Cancer by Intervention with Selenium) pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01819649) was a 5-year randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with four groups (allocation ratio 1:1:1:1). Men and women aged 60-74 years (n 491) were randomised to 100 (n 124), 200 (n 122) or 300 (n 119) μg Se-enriched yeast or matching placebo-yeast tablets (n 126) daily for 5 years. A total of 468 participants continued the study for 6 months and 361 participants, equally distributed across treatment groups, continued for 5 years. Plasma samples were analysed for total and HDL-cholesterol and for total Se concentrations at baseline, 6 months and 5 years. The effect of different doses of Se supplementation on plasma lipid and Se concentrations was estimated by using linear mixed models. Plasma Se concentration increased significantly and dose-dependently in the intervention groups after 6 months and 5 years. Total cholesterol decreased significantly both in the intervention groups and in the placebo group after 6 months and 5 years, with small and nonsignificant differences in changes in plasma concentration of total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and total:HDL-cholesterol ratio between intervention and placebo groups. The effect of long-term supplementation with Se on plasma cholesterol concentrations or its sub-fractions did not differ significantly from placebo in this elderly population. PMID:26420334

  3. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  4. Long-term persistence of synthetic populations of a lowland switchgrass ecotype and the cultivar Cave-in-Rock

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Upland cultivars of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), such as ‘Cave-in-Rock’, are most frequently recommended for the northeastern USA. Lowland ecotypes typically originate from more southerly locations and have coarser stems than upland ecotypes. Long-term data on the persistence and yield of lowl...

  5. Spotlight on "Long-Term English Language Learners": Characteristics and Prior Schooling Experiences of an Invisible Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menken, Kate; Kleyn, Tatyana; Chae, Nabin

    2012-01-01

    This article presents qualitative research findings about the characteristics and prior schooling experiences of "long-term English language learners" (LTELLs), who have attended U.S. schools for 7 years or more, and about whom there is little empirical research, despite their significant numbers. Findings indicate that these students are orally…

  6. The Chronicity of Self-Injurious Behaviour: A Long-Term Follow-Up of a Total Population Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Lorne; Oliver, Chris; Murphy, Glynis

    2011-01-01

    Background: Self-injurious behaviour (SIB) is a relatively common problem for people with intellectual disabilities and it is known to be associated with various risk markers, such as degree of disability, sensory impairments, and autism (McClintock "et al." 2003). Less is known about its long-term course however. Method: The present study was…

  7. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  8. Self-reported Occupational Skin Exposure and Risk of Physician-certified Long-term Sick Leave: A Prospective Study of the General Working Population of Norway.

    PubMed

    Alfonso, Jose H; Tynes, Tore; Thyssen, Jacob P; Holm, Jan-Øivind; Johannessen, Håkon A

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway. Occupational skin exposure (in 2009) was measured based on 5 items. The outcome of interest was physician-certified long-term sick leave ≥ 16 days during 2010. Statistical adjustment for psychosocial and mechanical occupational exposures was performed. Long-term sick leave was predicted by occupational skin exposure to cleaning products (odds ratio (OR) 1.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-2.5) and waste (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.7) among men, and occupational skin exposure to water (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.6) among women. The estimated population attributable risk for occupational skin exposure was 14.5%, which emphasizes its contribution as an important risk factor for long-term sick leave. PMID:26439508

  9. Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

  10. Association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a nationwide population-based, propensity score-matched, cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Li-Hsin; Lin, Liang-Yu; Tsai, Ming-Tsun; How, Chorng-Kuang; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Hu, Sung-Yuan; Hsieh, Ming-Shun

    2016-01-01

    Objective Hyperglycaemic crisis was associated with significant intrahospital morbidity and mortality. However, the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term cardiovascular outcomes remained unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and subsequent long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Participants and methods This population-based cohort study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period of 1996–2012. A total of 2171 diabetic patients with hyperglycaemic crisis fit the inclusion criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match the baseline characteristics of the study cohort to construct a comparison cohort which comprised 8684 diabetic patients without hyperglycaemic crisis. The risk of long-term MACEs was compared between the two cohorts. Results Six hundred and seventy-six MACEs occurred in the study cohort and the event rate was higher than that in the comparison cohort (31.1% vs 24.1%, p<0.001). Patients with hyperglycaemic crisis were associated with a higher risk of long-term MACEs even after adjusting for all baseline characteristics and medications (adjusted HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.62 to 1.92, p<0.001). Acute myocardial infarction had the highest adjusted HR (adjusted HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75, p<0.001) in the four types of MACEs, followed by congestive heart failure (adjusted HR=1.97, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.28, p<0.001). Younger patients with hyperglycaemic crisis had a higher risk of MACEs than older patients (adjusted HR=2.69 for patients aged 20–39 years vs adjusted HR=1.58 for patients aged >65 years). Conclusions Hyperglycaemic crisis was significantly associated with long-term MACEs, especially in the young population. Further prospective longitudinal study should be conducted for validation. PMID:27554106

  11. Long-term signal of population disturbance after pulse exposure to an insecticide: rapid recovery of abundance, persistent alteration of structure.

    PubMed

    Liess, Matthias; Pieters, Barry Johan; Duquesne, Sabine

    2006-05-01

    Little is known about the effect of pulse exposure to toxicants on populations when density regulation is present. Yet, for a more realistic risk assessment, it is necessary to include effect and recovery at the population level. Here, we investigate the long-term and delayed effects as well as the subsequent recovery of populations of Daphnia magna. A 24-h pulse of the pyrethroid fenvalerate reduced the abundance at a concentration of 1.0 microg/L and higher. However, abundance recovered and reached control levels after one to two generation times (GTs) following reproduction of surviving individuals (GT = 8 d, from birth until first reproduction). At high concentrations above the acute median lethal concentration (3.2 micorg/L), abundance initially decreased even more strongly but was then elevated compared to control values for an extended period of time. Population structure (size distribution) was affected at lower concentrations than abundance (> 0.8 microg/L). In addition, the alteration of population structure lasted for a long time, so that control levels were approached only after approximately six or seven GTs. Our results show that pulse exposure to toxicants may lead to a long-term alteration of population structure even at sublethal concentrations. Possible mechanisms that sustain the effects of toxicants may be delayed life-history effects on the individual level and elevated competition because of altered population structure on the population level. PMID:16704065

  12. The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-01-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km−2 and 3,820 persons·km−2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  13. Monitoring Tree Population Dynamics in Arid Zone Through Multiple Temporal Scales: Integration of Spatial Analysis, Change Detection and Field Long Term Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaacson, S.; Rachmilevitch, S.; Ephrath, J. E.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

    2016-06-01

    High mortality rates and lack of recruitment in the acacia populations throughout the Negev Desert and the Arava rift valley of Israel have been reported in previous studies. However, it is difficult to determine whether these reports can be evidence to a significant decline trend of the trees populations. This is because of the slow dynamic processes of acaia tree populations and the lack of long term continuous monitoring data. We suggest a new data analysis technique that expands the time scope of the field long term monitoring of trees in arid environments. This will enables us to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of these populations. We implemented two different approaches in order to expand the time scope of the acacia population field survey: (1) individual based tree change detection using Corona satellite images and (2) spatial analysis of trees population, converting spatial data into temporal data. The next step was to integrate the results of the two analysis techniques (change detection and spatial analysis) with field monitoring. This technique can be implemented to other tree populations in arid environments to help assess the vegetation conditions and dynamics of those ecosystems.

  14. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  15. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub

    PubMed Central

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M.; Caldeira, Maria C.; Clemente, Adelaide S.; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N.

    2016-01-01

    Plant–animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  16. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub.

    PubMed

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M; Caldeira, Maria C; Clemente, Adelaide S; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N

    2016-01-01

    Plant-animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  17. Long-term changes in cyanobacteria populations in lake kinneret (sea of galilee), Israel: an eco-physiological outlook.

    PubMed

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret's vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  18. Placental abruption and long-term maternal cardiovascular disease mortality: a population-based registry study in Norway and Sweden.

    PubMed

    DeRoo, Lisa; Skjærven, Rolv; Wilcox, Allen; Klungsøyr, Kari; Wikström, Anna-Karin; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; Cnattingius, Sven

    2016-05-01

    Women with preeclamptic pregnancies have increased long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We explored this mortality risk among women with placental abruption, another placental pathology. We used linked Medical Birth Registry and Death Registry data to study CVD mortality among over two million women with a first singleton birth between 1967 and 2002 in Norway and 1973 and 2003 in Sweden. Women were followed through 2009 and 2010, respectively, to ascertain subsequent pregnancies and mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate associations between placental abruption and cardiovascular mortality adjusting for maternal age, education, year of the pregnancy and country. There were 49,944 deaths after an average follow-up of 23 years, of which 5453 were due to CVD. Women with placental abruption in first pregnancy (n = 10,981) had an increased risk of CVD death (hazard ratio 1.8; 95 % confidence interval 1.3, 2.4). Results were essentially unchanged by excluding women with pregestational hypertension, preeclampsia or diabetes. Women with placental abruption in any pregnancy (n = 23,529) also had a 1.8-fold increased risk of CVD mortality (95 % confidence interval 1.5, 2.2) compared with women who never experienced the condition. Our findings provide evidence that placental abruption, like other placental complications of pregnancy, is associated with women's increased risk of later CVD mortality. PMID:26177801

  19. Long-Term Changes in Cyanobacteria Populations in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel: An Eco-Physiological Outlook

    PubMed Central

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret’s vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  20. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  1. Long Term Illness and Wages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandy, Robert; Elliott, Robert R.

    2005-01-01

    Long-term illness (LTI) is a more prevalent workplace risk than fatal accidents but there is virtually no evidence for compensating differentials for a broad measure of LTI. In 1990 almost 3.4 percent of the U.K. adult population suffered from a LTI caused solely by their working conditions. This paper provides the first estimates of compensating…

  2. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  3. Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, D.H.; Doak, D.F.; Ballachey, B.E.; Bodkin, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as

  4. Landscape resistance to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects for a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Considerable fragmentation of native habitats and loss of forest cover has occurred in association with agricultural development over the past 50 years in o...

  5. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports

    PubMed Central

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-01-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006–2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  6. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports.

    PubMed

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-06-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006-2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  7. Reduced flight-to-light behaviour of moth populations exposed to long-term urban light pollution.

    PubMed

    Altermatt, Florian; Ebert, Dieter

    2016-04-01

    The globally increasing light pollution is a well-recognized threat to ecosystems, with negative effects on human, animal and plant wellbeing. The most well-known and widely documented consequence of light pollution is the generally fatal attraction of nocturnal insects to artificial light sources. However, the evolutionary consequences are unknown. Here we report that moth populations from urban areas with high, globally relevant levels of light pollution over several decades show a significantly reduced flight-to-light behaviour compared with populations of the same species from pristine dark-sky habitats. Using a common garden setting, we reared moths from 10 different populations from early-instar larvae and experimentally compared their flight-to-light behaviour under standardized conditions. Moths from urban populations had a significant reduction in the flight-to-light behaviour compared with pristine populations. The reduced attraction to light sources of 'city moths' may directly increase these individuals' survival and reproduction. We anticipate that it comes with a reduced mobility, which negatively affects foraging as well as colonization ability. As nocturnal insects are of eminent significance as pollinators and the primary food source of many vertebrates, an evolutionary change of the flight-to-light behaviour thereby potentially cascades across species interaction networks. PMID:27072407

  8. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  9. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management--Part A: methodology.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. PMID:19800164

  10. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

    PubMed Central

    Berkhout, J; Stone, JA; Verhamme, KM; Stricker, BH; Sturkenboom, MC; Danhof, M; Post, TM

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis. PMID:26451331

  11. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Berkhout, J; Stone, J A; Verhamme, K M; Stricker, B H; Sturkenboom, M C; Danhof, M; Post, T M

    2015-09-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis. PMID:26451331

  12. Secondary Surge Capacity: A Framework for Understanding Long-Term Access to Primary Care for Medically Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Recovery

    PubMed Central

    Brock-Martin, Amy; Karmaus, Wilfried; Svendsen, Erik R.

    2012-01-01

    Disasters create a secondary surge in casualties because of the sudden increased need for long-term health care. Surging demands for medical care after a disaster place excess strain on an overtaxed health care system operating at maximum or reduced capacity. We have applied a health services use model to identify areas of vulnerability that perpetuate health disparities for at-risk populations seeking care after a disaster. We have proposed a framework to understand the role of the medical system in modifying the health impact of the secondary surge on vulnerable populations. Baseline assessment of existing needs and the anticipation of ballooning chronic health care needs following the acute response for at-risk populations are overlooked vulnerability gaps in national surge capacity plans. PMID:23078479

  13. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    SciTech Connect

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  14. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    DOEpatents

    Stampfer, Martha R.; Garbe, James C.

    2016-06-28

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  15. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

    PubMed Central

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  16. Alcohol Habits in Patients with Long-Term Musculoskeletal Pain: Comparison with a Matched Control Group from the General Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thelin Bronner, Kerstin Birgitta; Wennberg, Peter; Kallmen, Hakan; Schult, Marie-Louise Birgitta

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to describe alcohol habits in patients with chronic pain compared with those in a matched control group from the general Swedish population. In total, 100 consecutive patients enrolled were matched against 100 individuals in a control group on the basis of age and sex. Alcohol habits were measured using the Alcohol Use…

  17. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  18. Mid- and long-term effects of family constellation seminars in a general population sample: 8- and 12-month follow-up.

    PubMed

    Hunger, Christina; Weinhold, Jan; Bornhäuser, Annette; Link, Leoni; Schweitzer, Jochen

    2015-06-01

    In a previous randomized controlled trial (RCT), short-term efficacy of family constellation seminars (FCSs) in a general population sample was demonstrated. In this article, we examined mid- and long-term stability of these effects. Participants were 104 adults (M = 47 years; SD = 9; 84% female) who were part of the intervention group in the original RCT (3-day FCS; 64 active participants and 40 observing participants). FCSs were carried out according to manuals. It was predicted that FCSs would improve psychological functioning (Outcome Questionnaire OQ-45.2) at 8- and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, we assessed the effects of FCSs on psychological distress, motivational incongruence, individuals' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. Participants yielded significant improvement in psychological functioning (d = 0.41 at 8-month follow-up, p = .000; d = 0.40 at 12-month follow-up, p = .000). Results were confirmed for psychological distress, motivational incongruence, the participants' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. No adverse events were reported. This study provides first evidence for the mid- and long-term efficacy of FCSs in a nonclinical population. The implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25264190

  19. Chance and risk of controlling rabies in large-scale and long-term immunized fox populations.

    PubMed

    Tischendorf, L; Thulke, H H; Staubach, C; Müller, M S; Jeltsch, F; Goretzki, J; Selhorst, T; Müller, T; Schlüter, H; Wissel, C

    1998-05-22

    The large-scale immunization of European fox populations against rabies is currently under the microscope for reducing the considerable expenditure without putting public health at risk. Empirical knowledge is inadequate to interpret the lasting sporadic incidences and, therefore, to verify the final success of the immunization campaigns. By using a proven simulation model we show that rabies can persist on a very low level in the form of spatio-temporal moving infection clusters within a highly immunized fox population. We found further: (i) the existence of a threshold after which the chance of eradicating the disease by vaccination increases clearly, and (ii) that at least six years of 70% mean immunization rate are required to guarantee a likely success. PMID:9633109

  20. In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives.

    PubMed

    Kalisz, Susan; Spigler, Rachel B; Horvitz, Carol C

    2014-03-25

    A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading. Because population growth is multiplicative across time, we introduce metrics that correctly integrate experimental effects across treatment years, the cumulative population growth rate, λc, and its geometric mean, λper-year, the time-averaged annual population growth rate. We determined λc and λper-year of the invader and of a common native, Trillium erectum. Our results conclusively demonstrate that deer are required for the success of Alliaria; its projected population trajectory shifted from explosive growth in the presence of deer (λper-year = 1.33) to decline toward extinction where deer are excluded (λper-year = 0.88). In contrast, Trillium's λper-year was suppressed in the presence of deer relative to deer exclusion (λper-year = 1.04 vs. 1.20, respectively). Retrospective sensitivity analyses revealed that the largest negative effect of deer exclusion on Alliaria came from rosette transitions, whereas the largest positive effect on Trillium came from reproductive transitions. Deer exclusion lowered Alliaria density while increasing Trillium density. Our results provide definitive experimental support that interactions with overabundant ungulates enhance demographic success of invaders and depress natives' success, with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. PMID:24616522

  1. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management---Part B: case study.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, a solid waste decision-support system was developed for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. Interactions among various system components, objectives, and constraints will be analyzed. Issues concerning planning for cost-effective diversion and prolongation of the landfill will be addressed. Decisions of system-capacity expansion and waste allocation within a multi-facility, multi-option, and multi-period context will be obtained. The obtained results would provide useful information and decision-support for the City's solid waste management and planning. In the application, four scenarios are considered. Through the above scenario analyses under different waste-management policies, useful decision support for the City's solid waste managers and decision makers was generated. Analyses for the effects of varied policies (for allowable waste flows to different facilities) under 35 and 50% diversion goals were also undertaken. Tradeoffs among system cost and constraint-violation risk were analyzed. Generally, a policy with lower allowable waste-flow levels corresponded to a lower system cost under advantageous conditions but, at the same time, a higher penalty when such allowances were violated. A policy with higher allowable flow levels corresponded to a higher cost under disadvantageous conditions. The modeling results were useful for (i) scheduling adequate time and capacity for long-term planning of the facility development and/or expansion in the city's waste management system, (ii) adjusting of the existing waste flow allocation patterns to satisfy the city's diversion goal, and (iii) generating of desired policies for managing the city's waste generation, collection and disposal. PMID:19818549

  2. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-05-26

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  3. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Colin A.; Schoof, Valérie A. M.; Bonnell, Tyler R.; Gogarten, Jan F.; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  4. Long-Term Assessment of Wild Boar Harvesting and Cattle Removal for Bovine Tuberculosis Control in Free Ranging Populations

    PubMed Central

    Mentaberre, Gregorio; Romero, Beatriz; de Juan, Lucía; Navarro-González, Nora; Velarde, Roser; Mateos, Ana; Marco, Ignasi; Olivé-Boix, Xavier; Domínguez, Lucas; Lavín, Santiago; Serrano, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Wild boar is a recognized reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Mediterranean ecosystems, but information is scarce outside of hotspots in southern Spain. We describe the first high-prevalence focus of TB in a non-managed wild boar population in northern Spain and the result of eight years of TB management. Measures implemented for disease control included the control of the local wild boar population through culling and stamping out of a sympatric infected cattle herd. Post-mortem inspection for detection of tuberculosis-like lesions as well as cultures from selected head and cervical lymph nodes was done in 745 wild boar, 355 Iberian ibexes and five cattle between 2004 and 2012. The seasonal prevalence of TB reached 70% amongst adult wild boar and ten different spoligotypes and 13 MIRU-VNTR profiles were detected, although more than half of the isolates were included in the same clonal complex. Only 11% of infected boars had generalized lesions. None of the ibexes were affected, supporting their irrelevance in the epidemiology of TB. An infected cattle herd grazed the zone where 168 of the 197 infected boars were harvested. Cattle removal and wild boar culling together contributed to a decrease in TB prevalence. The need for holistic, sustained over time, intensive and adapted TB control strategies taking into account the multi-host nature of the disease is highlighted. The potential risk for tuberculosis emergence in wildlife scenarios where the risk is assumed to be low should be addressed. PMID:24558435

  5. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  6. Long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (Croatia) related to eutrophication patterns in the northern Adriatic Sea.

    PubMed

    Iveša, Ljiljana; Djakovac, Tamara; Devescovi, Massimo

    2016-05-15

    An exploration of historical data suggested that eutrophication patterns might drive long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (northern Adriatic Sea, Croatia). The regimes of northern Italian rivers, which flow approximately 100km west of the study area, mainly modulate the eutrophication levels of the northern Adriatic Sea. A regression of Cystoseira populations from the 1970s through the 1990s corresponded to increased levels of eutrophication in the study area. During the late 1990s, the density of sea urchins, which are efficacious macroalgal predators, decreased, likely due to an intense formation of pelagic mucilage aggregates that resulted in mass mortality episodes of macrozoobenthic species. During the 2000-2013 period, an oligotrophication of the northern Adriatic formed the basis for the recovery of Cystoseira taxa, whose abundances from 2009 to 2013 were similar to those characterising the most flourishing Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages. PMID:26975612

  7. Some results of long-term investigation population exposed as a result of release of radioactive wastes into the Techa River in Southern Urals

    SciTech Connect

    Degteva, M.O.; Kozheurov, V.P.; Vorobiova, M.I.

    1992-06-01

    This paper describes results of a long-term investigation of a population exposed to radioactive waste release in 1949-1956 into the Techa River in the Southern Urals. Systematic measurements of radionuclide concentration in the river waters, sediments, and floodplain soils and measurements of exposure gamma dose rates as well as studies of the radionuclide composition in the contaminated areas began in the summer of 1951. As a result of the contamination, 124,000 residents were exposed to radiation and 28,100 received significant doses in terms of health effect potential. Covered results include the following: estimation of external radiation doses; content of strontium-90 in humans and estimation of radionuclide ingestion rates; age-dependent model of strontium metabolism in the human body; evaluation of doses of internal irradiation; distribution of exposed population according to accumulated doses. 11 refs; 15 figs.

  8. The roles of flowering, overwinter survival and sea surface temperature in the long-term population dynamics of Zostera marina around the Isles of Scilly, UK.

    PubMed

    Potouroglou, Maria; Kenyon, Emma J; Gall, Angie; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2014-06-30

    Interaction between biotic and abiotic drivers of dynamics is an important topic in ecology. Despite numerous short-term studies, there is a paucity of evidence about how environmental structure modifies dynamics in marine systems. We quantified Zostera marina flowering and non-flowering shoot density annually from 1996 to 2012 around the Isles of Scilly, UK, parameterizing a population dynamic model. Flowering is structured in time and space, with temperature and flowering positively associated at some locations only. We found no evidence that flower production contributes to seagrass density but 'patchiness' was positively associated with flowering in the previous year. With evidence of substantial overwinter survival, findings support the hypothesis that local populations are maintained largely through vegetative reproduction but sexual reproduction may contribute to colonisation of vacant habitat. This long-term study (1) tests validity of shorter-term investigations, (2) quantifies interaction between biotic and abiotic factors and (3) promotes seagrass as a model ecosystem. PMID:24731880

  9. Social network in long-term diseases: a comparative study in relatives of persons with schizophrenia and physical illnesses versus a sample from the general population.

    PubMed

    Magliano, Lorenza; Fiorillo, Andrea; Malangone, Claudio; De Rosa, Corrado; Maj, Mario

    2006-03-01

    This study compares the social network of a sample of 709 relatives of patients with schizophrenia, 646 relatives of patients with physical diseases, and 714 lay respondents, recruited in 30 randomly selected Italian areas, stratified for geographic location and population density. Each respondent was asked to fill in the Social Network Questionnaire. The social network was less extended and supportive in relatives of patients with schizophrenia than in those of patients with physical diseases and in the general population. Multivariate analyses revealed that social contacts were similarly reduced in relatives of patients with schizophrenia and physical diseases, while social support was significantly lower in relatives of patients with schizophrenia than in the other two groups. Social resources were higher in young respondents and in those living in rural areas. These results highlight the need to provide the families of those with long-term diseases with interventions aimed at increasing their social resources. PMID:16162379

  10. Long-term development of the radionuclide exposure of murine rodent populations in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Ryabokon, N I; Smolich, I I; Kudryashov, V P; Goncharova, R I

    2005-12-01

    As a determinant of the associated health risks, the behavior of radionuclides in natural ecosystems needs to be better understood. Therefore, the activity concentration of various long-lived radionuclides released due to the Chernobyl accident, and the corresponding contributions to the whole-body dose rate, was studied as a function of time in mammalian indicator species inhabiting the natural forest ecosystems of Belarus, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) and the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollus). The activity concentrations of 137Cs, 134Cs, 90Sr, 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am in soil and in animals were measured at five monitoring sites with different ground deposition of radionuclides at different distances from the destroyed reactor. The observed temporal pattern of the radionuclide activity concentration in the studied animal populations reflects the changes in biological availability of these isotopes for biota, mostly due to fuel particle destruction and appearance of dissolved and exchangeable forms of radionuclides. The time course of 134+137Cs activity concentrations in animal populations appeared as a sequence of increase, peak and decrease. Maximal levels of radiocesium occurred 1-2 years after deposition, followed by an exponential decrease. Concentrations of incorporated 90Sr increased up to the tenth year after deposition. The activity concentrations of transuranic elements (238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am) were much lower than those of the other radionuclides, in the studied animals. A considerable activity of 241Am in animals from areas with high levels of contamination was firstly detected 5 years after deposition, it increased up to the tenth year and is expected to increase further in the future. Maximal values of the whole-body absorbed dose rates occurred during the year of deposition, followed by a decrease in the subsequent period. Generally, this decrease was monotonic, mainly determined by the decrease of the

  11. The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

    PubMed

    Gleim, Elizabeth R; Conner, L Mike; Berghaus, Roy D; Levin, Michael L; Zemtsova, Galina E; Yabsley, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  12. The Phenology of Ticks and the Effects of Long-Term Prescribed Burning on Tick Population Dynamics in Southwestern Georgia and Northwestern Florida

    PubMed Central

    Gleim, Elizabeth R.; Conner, L. Mike; Berghaus, Roy D.; Levin, Michael L.; Zemtsova, Galina E.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  13. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates

    PubMed Central

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-terWengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-01-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  14. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates.

    PubMed

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-Terwengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-02-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000-12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000-67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700-44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70-110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  15. Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2015-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic

  16. Long-term fracture risk in patients with celiac disease: a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

    PubMed

    Jafri, Mohammed R; Nordstrom, Charles W; Murray, Joseph A; Van Dyke, Carol T; Dierkhising, Ross A; Zinsmeister, Alan R; Melton, Lee J

    2008-04-01

    Celiac disease is associated with decreased bone density, but there are conflicting data regarding fracture risk. We determined the fracture incidence relative to matched controls in a population-based cohort with celiac disease before and after diagnosis. Olmsted County residents with celiac disease (n = 83) diagnosed between 1950 and 2002 were compared with 166 gender and age matched controls. Fracture histories were ascertained from each subject's medical records. Celiac disease is linked to an increased fracture risk before and after diagnosis. Before the index date, cases had a fracture rate twice that of controls (CI: 1.0-3.9, P = 0.045) and 2.5-fold greater after the index date (CI: 1.1-5.6, P = 0.026). Appendicular and axial fractures were 2.5 (CI: 0.9-6.5) and 3.2 times more likely (CI: 1.0-10.5) after the index date. These observations support a rationale for earlier detection of celiac disease, and active management of bone disease before bone effects have occurred, to reduce the persistent risk of fractures. PMID:17934823

  17. Trace metals in the environment and population as possible long term consequence of war in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia.

    PubMed

    Vidosavljević, Domagoj; Puntarić, Dinko; Gvozdić, Vlatka; Jergović, Matijana; Jurčev-Savičević, Anamarija; Puntarić, Ida; Vidosavljević, Marina

    2014-09-01

    War in Croatia resulted with a significant release of contaminants into the environment as a result of the use of combat assets, mainly conventional, mostly aimed at civilian targets. The aim of the study was to investigate the concentration of metals and metalloids in the soils, water, plants (Taraxacum officinale), serum, urine and hair of the inhabitants in eastern Croatia. Overall results show minor abnormalities in presence of some trace metals in soil (As, Hg, Pb, Sb), water (As, Fe) and dandelion leaves (As) in some locations. Compared with soil samples from areas exposed to low intensity combat activity soil samples from areas exposed to heavy fighting had higher concentrations of As, Hg and Pb than allowed by national legislation for ecologic farming. Drinking water with the exceptions of the concentrations of Fe, As and Mn was in accordance with national legislation. Examinees from Dalj had mean hair Sb level 10-19x higher then examinees from any other location. However, when these data are correlated through methods of principal component analysis, presence of trace metals in some war affected areas can be followed from soil, through plants up to population proving that intense combat activities over small area leave metal presence that can be followed even 15 years after the war. PMID:25507359

  18. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  19. Trace metals in the environment and population as possible long term consequence of war in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia.

    PubMed

    Vidosavljević, Domagoj; Puntarić, Dinko; Gvozdić, Vlatka; Jergović, Matijana; Jurčev-Savičević, Anamarija; Puntarić, Ida; Vidosavljević, Marina

    2014-09-01

    War in Croatia resulted with a significant release of contaminants into the environment as a result of the use of combat assets, mainly conventional, mostly aimed at civilian targets. The aim of the study was to investigate the concentration of metals and metalloids in the soils, water, plants (Taraxacum officinale), serum, urine and hair of the inhabitants in eastern Croatia. Overall results show minor abnormalities in presence of some trace metals in soil (As, Hg, Pb, Sb), water (As, Fe) and dandelion leaves (As) in some locations. Compared with soil samples from areas exposed to low intensity combat activity soil samples from areas exposed to heavy fighting had higher concentrations of As, Hg and Pb than allowed by national legislation for ecologic farming. Drinking water with the exceptions of the concentrations of Fe, As and Mn was in accordance with national legislation. Examinees from Dalj had mean hair Sb level 10-19x higher then examinees from any other location. However, when these data are correlated through methods of principal component analysis, presence of trace metals in some war affected areas can be followed from soil, through plants up to population proving that intense combat activities over small area leave metal presence that can be followed even 15 years after the war. PMID:25420375

  20. Occurrence and Prevalence of Insect Pathogens in Populations of the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella L.: A Long-Term Diagnostic Survey

    PubMed Central

    Zimmermann, Gisbert; Huger, Alois M.; Kleespies, Regina G.

    2013-01-01

    About 20,550 larvae, pupae and adults of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella L., were diagnosed for pathogens during long-term investigations (1955–2012) at the Institute for Biological Control in Darmstadt, Germany. The prevailing entomopathogens diagnosed in these studies were insect pathogenic fungi, especially Beauveria bassiana and Isaria farinosa, the microsporidium, Nosema carpocapsae, the Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV), as well as mostly undetermined bacteria. While the CpGV was observed exclusively in larvae and pupae from laboratory colonies or from field experiments with this virus, entomopathogenic fungi were most frequently diagnosed in last instars in autumn and in diapausing larvae and pupae in spring. B. bassiana was identified as the major fungal pathogen, causing larval prevalences of 0.9% to 100% (mean, about 32%). During prognostic long-term studies in larvae and adults of C. pomonella, N. carpocapsae was diagnosed in codling moth populations from various locations in Germany. The mean prevalence generally ranged between 20% and 50%. Experiments revealed that the fecundity and fertility of microsporidia-infected female adults were significantly reduced compared to healthy ones. The results underpin the importance of naturally occurring microbial antagonists and represent a base for further ecological studies on developing new or additional biological and integrated control strategies. PMID:26462428

  1. [Effects of long-term petroleum and heavy metals pollution on the diversity and community structure of Pesudomonas populations in agricultural soils].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Hui-wen; Su, Zhen-cheng; Li, Xin-yu; Zhang, Cheng-gang

    2007-06-01

    By using PCR-DGGE method, this paper studied the diversity and community structure of Pseudomonas populations in long-term petroleum- and heavy metals-contaminated agricultural soils in Northeast China. The results showed that the Shannon diversity index of Pseudomonas was significantly higher in petroleum- than in heavy metals-contaminated soils. The diversity of Pseudomonas in petroleum-contaminated soil was approached to that in clean soil but lower than that in polluted lowland rice soil, suggesting that contaminant type and cultivation mode were the main factors affecting the diversity of Pseudomonas in agricultural soils. The sequences of V6/V7 regions in 16S rRNA gene indicated that P. mendocina, P. stutzeri and P. aeruginosa were the dominant species in both petroleum- and heavy metals-contaminated soils, demonstrating that these three species were enriched under the stress of long-term pollution, which might correlate with the natural degradation of petroleum and the resistance of Pseudomonas to heavy metals. PMID:17763738

  2. Genetic drift vs. natural selection in a long-term small isolated population: major histocompatibility complex class II variation in the Gulf of California endemic porpoise (Phocoena sinus).

    PubMed

    Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Esquer-Garrigos, Yareli; Rojas-Bracho, Lorenzo; Vazquez-Juarez, Ricardo; Castro-Prieto, Aines; Flores-Ramirez, Sergio

    2007-10-01

    Although many studies confirm long-term small isolated populations (e.g. island endemics) commonly sustain low neutral genetic variation as a result of genetic drift, it is less clear how selection on adaptive or detrimental genes interplay with random forces. We investigated sequence variation at two major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) class II loci on a porpoise endemic to the upper Gulf of California, México (Phocoena sinus, or vaquita). Its unique declining population is estimated around 500 individuals. Single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis revealed one putative functional allele fixed at the locus DQB (n = 25). At the DRB locus, we found two presumed functional alleles (n = 29), differing by a single nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution that could increase the stability at the dimer interface of alphabeta-heterodimers on heterozygous individuals. Identical trans-specific DQB1 and DRB1 alleles were identified between P. sinus and its closest relative, the Burmeister's porpoise (Phocoena spinipinnis). Comparison with studies on four island endemic mammals suggests fixation of one allele, due to genetic drift, commonly occurs at the DQA or DQB loci (effectively neutral). Similarly, deleterious alleles of small effect are also effectively neutral and can become fixed; a high frequency of anatomical malformations on vaquita gave empirical support to this prediction. In contrast, retention of low but functional polymorphism at the DRB locus was consistent with higher selection intensity. These observations indicated natural selection could maintain (and likely also purge) some crucial alleles even in the face of strong and prolonged genetic drift and inbreeding, suggesting long-term small populations should display low inbreeding depression. Low levels of Mhc variation warn about a high susceptibility to novel pathogens and diseases in vaquita. PMID:17727623

  3. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

    PubMed Central

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-01-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  4. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

    PubMed

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-09-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  5. Moving house: long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are unaltered in translocated populations of a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus)

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Lindsay E.; Cree, Alison; Towns, David R.; Nelson, Nicola J.

    2015-01-01

    Translocations are an important conservation tool used to restore at-risk species to their historical range. Unavoidable procedures during translocations, such as habitat disturbance, capture, handling, processing, captivity, transport and release to a novel environment, have the potential to be stressful for most species. In this study, we examined acute and chronic stress (through the measurement of the glucocorticoid corticosterone) in a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus). We found that: (i) the acute corticosterone response remains elevated during the initial translocation process but is not amplified by cumulative stressors; and (ii) the long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are similar in translocated and source populations. Taken together, our results show that translocated tuatara are generally resistant to cumulative acute stressors and show no hormonal sign of chronic stress. Translocation efforts in tuatara afford the potential to reduce extinction risk and restore natural ecosystems. PMID:27293699

  6. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    SciTech Connect

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  7. Inactivation of nucleus incertus impairs passive avoidance learning and long term potentiation of the population spike in the perforant path-dentate gyrus evoked field potentials in rats.

    PubMed

    Nategh, Mohsen; Nikseresht, Sara; Khodagholi, Fariba; Motamedi, Fereshteh

    2016-04-01

    Involvement of brainstem nucleus incertus (NI) in hippocampal theta rhythm suggests that this structure might play a role in hippocampal-dependent learning and memory. In the present study we aimed to address if NI is involved in an avoidance learning task as well as dentate gyrus (DG) short-term and long-term potentiation. Lidocaine was injected into the NI to transiently inactivate the nucleus, and control rats received saline. Role of NI was studied in passive avoidance learning (PAL) in 3 memory phases of acquisition, consolidation and retrieval. Levels of hippocampal phosphorylated p70 were also assessed in rats involved in PAL. Perforant path-DG short-term synaptic plasticity was studied upon NI inactivation before the paired-pulse stimulation, and also before or after tetanic stimulation in freely moving rats. It was found that NI inactivation delayed learning and impaired retention in the PAL task, with decreased levels of phosphorylated p70 in the respective groups. However, short-term plasticity was not affected by NI inactivation. But long term potentiation (LTP) of DG population spike was poorly induced with NI inactivation compared to the saline group, and it had no effect on population excitatory post-synaptic potential. Furthermore, when NI was inactivated after the induction of LTP, there was no difference between the saline and lidocaine groups. These observations suggest that NI has a role in PAL task, and its inactivation does not change the perforant path-DG granule cell synaptic input but decreases the excitability of the DG granule cells. Further studies should elucidate direct and indirect paths through which NI might influence hippocampal activity. PMID:26927304

  8. A disintegrin and metalloprotease 33 polymorphism association with COPD in long-term tobacco smokers of the ethnic Kashmiri population of India

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Sonaullah; Rashid, Amir; Shah, Zaffar A; Jan, Rafi Ahmad; Khan, Umar Hafiz; Bhat, Imtiyaz A; Mantoo, Suhail; Shah, Tajamul H; Koul, Parvaiz A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by an interaction of various environmental influences especially cigarette smoking and genetic determinants. The prevalence of this disease is ever increasing and characterization of the genetic determinants of the disease has been undertaken globally. The ‘A disintegrin and metalloprotease 33’ (ADAM 33) gene is one candidate gene that has been studied. Objective: Our objective was to investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADAM33 gene are associated with COPD in long-term tobacco smokers in the ethnic Kashmiri population of northern India. Materials and Methods: This was a randomized case-control study, which included 78 stable COPD (GOLD stage11-IV) patients, who were compared with 77 age- and sex-matched long-term tobacco smokers (>20 pack years) without any evidence of COPD. Polymorphic analysis for three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), (T1, T2, and Q1) of the ADAM33 gene was done by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) followed by sequencing. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and comparative evaluation was done by parametric/non-parametric tests. Results: The analysis of the T1, T2, and Q1 SNPs, revealed that the frequencies of the T2GG, T1GG, and the Q1AG genotypes were significantly higher in patients with COPD in comparison with the controls (P < 0.001). Similarly, the T1G and T2G allele frequency was higher in the patients than in the controls (p = 0.177 and 0.43, respectively). Conclusion: Three SNPs of the ADAM33 gene were significantly associated with COPD in the Kashmiri population of India. This study establishes the possible role of ADAM33 SNPS in the causation of COPD. Further studies across different geographical areas in the country will unravel the contribution of this gene in the causation of COPD in India. PMID:25983406

  9. Long-term prediction of major coronary or ischaemic stroke event in a low-incidence Southern European population: model development and evaluation of clinical utility

    PubMed Central

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Gianfagna, Francesco; Chambless, Lloyd E; Giampaoli, Simona; Mancia, Giuseppe; Cesana, Giancarlo; Ferrario, Marco M

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop a long-term prediction model of first major cardiovascular event and to assess its clinical utility in a low-incidence European population. Setting Four independent population-based cohorts enrolled between 1986 and 1993 in Northern Italy. Participants and methods N=5247 35-year-old to 69-year-old men and women free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Absolute 20-year risk of first fatal or non-fatal coronary or ischaemic stroke event (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA) validated) was estimated from gender-specific Cox models. Main outcome measures Model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curve, AUC). ‘High-risk’ subjects were identified based on several threshold values for the 20-year predicted risk. Clinical utility was defined in terms of fraction of missed events (events among those considered at low-risk) and unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio). A net benefit curve was also provided. Results Kaplan-Meier 20-year risk was 16.1% in men (315 events) and 6.1% in women (123 events). Model discrimination (AUC=0.737 in men, 0.801 in women) did not change significantly as compared to 10-year prediction time interval. In men, with respect to risk stratification based on the number of risk factors, a 20% predicted risk cut-off would miss less events (36% vs 50%) and reduce unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio 2.2 vs 3.0); the net benefit was higher over the whole range of threshold values. Similar considerations hold for women. Conclusions Long-term prediction has good discrimination ability and is clinically useful for risk stratification in primary prevention. A clinical utility analysis is recommended to identify the optimal stratification according to different public health goals. PMID:24227872

  10. Causes of Morbidity in Wild Raptor Populations Admitted at a Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre in Spain from 1995-2007: A Long Term Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Molina-López, Rafael A.; Casal, Jordi; Darwich, Laila

    2011-01-01

    Background Morbidity studies complement the understanding of hazards to raptors by identifying natural or anthropogenic factors. Descriptive epidemiological studies of wildlife have become an important source of information about hazards to wildlife populations. On the other hand, data referenced to the overall wild population could provide a more accurate assessment of the potential impact of the morbidity/mortality causes in populations of wild birds. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study described the morbidity causes of hospitalized wild raptors and their incidence in the wild populations, through a long term retrospective study conducted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre of Catalonia (1995–2007). Importantly, Seasonal Cumulative Incidences (SCI) were calculated considering estimations of the wild population in the region and trend analyses were applied among the different years. A total of 7021 birds were analysed: 7 species of Strigiformes (n = 3521) and 23 of Falconiformes (n = 3500). The main causes of morbidity were trauma (49.5%), mostly in the Falconiformes, and orphaned/young birds (32.2%) mainly in the Strigiformes. During wintering periods, the largest morbidity incidence was observed in Accipiter gentillis due to gunshot wounds and in Tyto alba due to vehicle trauma. Within the breeding season, Falco tinnunculus (orphaned/young category) and Bubo bubo (electrocution and metabolic disorders) represented the most affected species. Cases due to orphaned/young, infectious/parasitic diseases, electrocution and unknown trauma tended to increase among years. By contrast, cases by undetermined cause, vehicle trauma and captivity decreased throughout the study period. Interestingly, gunshot injuries remained constant during the study period. Conclusions/Significance Frequencies of morbidity causes calculated as the proportion of each cause referred to the total number of admitted cases, allowed a qualitative assessment of hazards for

  11. Deep phylogeographic structuring of populations of the trapdoor spider Moggridgea tingle (Migidae) from southwestern Australia: evidence for long-term refugia within refugia.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Steven J B; Harvey, Mark S; Saint, Kathleen M; Main, Barbara Y

    2011-08-01

    Southwestern Australia has been recognized as a biodiversity hot spot of global significance, and it is particularly well known for its considerable diversity of flowering plant species. Questions of interest are how this region became so diverse and whether its fauna show similar diverse patterns of speciation. Here, we carried out a phylogeographic study of trapdoor spiders (Migidae: Moggridgea), a presumed Gondwanan lineage found in wet forest localities across southwestern Australia. Phylogenetic, molecular clock and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial (mtDNA) COI gene and ITS rRNA (internal transcribed spacer) data revealed considerable phylogeographic structuring of Moggridgea populations, with evidence for long-term (>3 million years) isolation of at least nine populations in different geographic locations, including upland regions of the Stirling and Porongurup Ranges. High levels of mtDNA divergence and no evidence of recent mitochondrial gene flow among valley populations of the Stirling Range suggest that individual valleys have acted as refugia for the spiders throughout the Pleistocene. Our findings support the hypothesis that climate change, particularly the aridification of Australia after the late Miocene, and the topography of the landscape, which allowed persistence of moist habitats, have been major drivers of speciation in southwestern Australia. PMID:21689192

  12. Long-term medical, educational, and social prognoses of childhood-onset epilepsy: a population-based study in a rural district of Japan.

    PubMed

    Wakamoto, H; Nagao, H; Hayashi, M; Morimoto, T

    2000-06-01

    The long-term prognosis of childhood-onset epilepsy has rarely been studied in a general population. We examined the long-term medical, educational, and social outcomes in individuals with a history of childhood-onset epilepsy aged 20 years or older in a defined area of Japan. Furthermore, the patients' recognition of epilepsy as well as the parents' concerns about the prognosis of epilepsy were also surveyed. After a mean follow-up period of 18.9 years, we had sufficient data on 148 surviving patients aged 20-38 years (mean, 26. 0 years) and seven dead patients. The follow-up rate was 92.8%. In the overall group, the percentages of those who had had each of the following were as follows: (a) 5-year remission, 62.8%; (b) a relapse of seizures, 17.4%; (c) psychiatric complications, 2.7%; (d) mortality, 4.5%; (e) attendance at regular classes of an ordinary school during compulsory education, 71.6%; (f) entrance to high school, 65.5%; (g) employment, 67.4%; (h) marriage, 23.0%; and (i) acquisition of a driver's license, 54.7%. The educational and social variables of the control population were as follows: (e) 99.1, (f) 97.0, (g) 96.6, (h) 51.9, and (i) 94.8%. In the 99 patients of normal intelligence, the results of the same analysis were as follows: (a) 75.8, (b) 10.7, (c) 0, (d) 0.6, (e) 100, (f) 96.0, (g) 95.2, (h) 33.3, and (i) 77.8%, in contrast to the corresponding variables of the 49 patients with mental retardation, that is, (a) 36.7, (b) 44.4, (c) 8.2, (d) 12.2, (e) 14.3, (f) 6.1, (g) 20.4, (h) 2.0, and (i) 4.1%, respectively. The best predictors of seizure remission included an early response to therapy, a low frequency of seizures or an absence of status epilepticus prior to therapy, and normal mental development. As for the current awareness of epilepsy and its prognosis, nearly 40% of the patients did not know the true name of their illness, and the same proportion of parents were still anxious about the prognosis even if their children had been taken

  13. Community composition and population genetics of insect pathogenic fungi in the genus Metarhizium from soils of a long-term agricultural research system.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Ryan M; Ugine, Todd A; Maul, Jude E; Cavigelli, Michel A; Rehner, Stephen A

    2015-08-01

    Fungi in the genus Metarhizium are insect pathogens able to function in other niches, including soil and plant rhizosphere habitats. In agroecosystems, cropping and tillage practices influence soil fungal communities with unknown effects on the distribution of Metarhizium, whose presence can reduce populations of crop pests. We report results from a selective media survey of Metarhizium in soils sampled from a long-term experimental farming project in the mid-Atlantic region. Field plots under soybean cultivation produced higher numbers of Metarhizium colony-forming units (cfu) than corn or alfalfa. Plots managed organically and via chisel-till harboured higher numbers of Metarhizium cfu than no-till plots. Sequence typing of Metarhizium isolates revealed four species, with M. robertsii and M. brunneum predominating. The M. brunneum population was essentially fixed for a single clone as determined by multilocus microsatellite genotyping. In contrast, M. robertsii was found to contain significant diversity, with the majority of isolates distributed between two principal clades. Evidence for recombination was observed only in the most abundant clade. These findings illuminate multiple levels of Metarhizium diversity that can be used to inform strategies by which soil Metarhizium populations may be manipulated to exert downward pressure on pest insects and promote plant health. PMID:25627647

  14. Isolation in a single step of a highly enriched murine hematopoietic stem cell population with competitive long-term repopulating ability

    SciTech Connect

    Szilvassy, S.J.; Lansdorp, P.M.; Humphries, R.K.; Eaves, A.C.; Eaves, C.J. )

    1989-08-15

    A simple procedure is described for the quantitation and enrichment of murine hematopoietic cells with the capacity for long-term repopulation of lymphoid and myeloid tissues in lethally irradiated mice. To ensure detection of the most primitive marrow cells with this potential, we used a competitive assay in which female recipients were injected with male test cells and 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells with normal short-term repopulating ability, but whose long-term repopulating ability had been reduced by serial transplantation. Primitive hematopoietic cells were purified by flow cytometry and sorting based on their forward and orthogonal light-scattering properties, and Thy-1 and H-2K antigen expression. Enrichment profiles for normal marrow, and marrow of mice injected with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) four days previously, were established for each of these parameters using an in vitro assay for high proliferative potential, pluripotent colony-forming cells. When all four parameters were gated simultaneously, these clonogenic cells were enriched 100-fold. Both day 9 and day 12 CFU-S were copurified; however, the purity (23%) and enrichment (75-fold) of day 12 CFU-S in the sorted population was greater with 5-FU-treated cells. Five hundred of the sorted 5-FU marrow cells consistently repopulated recipient lymphoid and myeloid tissues (greater than 50% male, 1 to 3 months post-transplant) when co-injected with 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells, and approximately 100 were sufficient to achieve the same result in 50% of recipients under the same conditions. This relatively simple purification and assay strategy should facilitate further analysis of the heterogeneity and regulation of stem cells that maintain hematopoiesis in vivo.

  15. Prognosis for long-term survival and renal recovery in critically ill patients with severe acute renal failure: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Bagshaw, Sean M; Laupland, Kevin B; Doig, Christopher J; Mortis, Garth; Fick, Gordon H; Mucenski, Melissa; Godinez-Luna, Tomas; Svenson, Lawrence W; Rosenal, Tom

    2005-01-01

    Introduction Severe acute renal failure (sARF) is associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and use of healthcare resources; however, its precise epidemiology and long-term outcomes have not been well described in a non-specified population. Methods Population-based surveillance was conducted among all adult residents of the Calgary Health Region (population 1 million) admitted to multidisciplinary and cardiovascular surgical intensive care units between May 1 1999 and April 30 2002. Clinical records were reviewed and outcome at 1 year was assessed. Results sARF occurred in 240 patients (11.0 per 100,000 population/year). Rates were highest in males and older patients (≥65 years of age). Risk factors for development of sARF included previous heart disease, stroke, pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, cancer, connective tissue disease, chronic renal dysfunction, and alcoholism. The annual mortality rate was 7.3 per 100,000 population with rates highest in males and those ≥65 years. The 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year case-fatality rates were 51%, 60%, and 64%, respectively. Increased Charlson co-morbidity index, presence of liver disease, higher APACHE II score, septic shock, and need for continuous renal replacement therapy were independently associated with death at 1 year. Renal recovery occurred in 78% (68/87) of survivors at 1 year. Conclusion sARF is common and males, older patients, and those with underlying medical conditions are at greatest risk. Although the majority of patients with sARF will die, most survivors will become independent from renal replacement therapy within a year. PMID:16280066

  16. Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability, New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus, and New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population.

    PubMed

    Yano, Yuichiro; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Kramer, Holly; Sato, Yuji; Konta, Tsuneo; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Narita, Ichiei; Kondo, Masahide; Kimura, Kenjiro; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2015-07-01

    Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SDSBP (per 5 mmHg), SDDBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variabilitySBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variabilityDBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SDBP and average real variabilityBP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up. PMID:25987664

  17. Long-term trends in survival of a declining population: the case of the little owl (Athene noctua) in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Schekkerman, Hans; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Boele, Arjan; van Harxen, Ronald; Fuchs, Piet; Stroeken, Pascal; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2011-06-01

    The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000 ringed owls, allowing detailed estimation of survival rates through multi-state capture-recapture modelling taking dispersal into account. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in age-specific survival rates and linked annual survival estimates to population growth rate in corresponding years, as well as to environmental covariates. The best model for estimating survival assumed time effects on both juvenile and adult survival rates, with average annual survival estimated at 0.258 (SE = 0.047) and 0.753 (SE = 0.019), respectively. Juvenile survival rates decreased with time whereas adult survival rates fluctuated regularly among years, low survival occurring about every 4 years. Years when the population declined were associated with low juvenile survival. More than 60% of the variation in juvenile survival was explained by the increase in road traffic intensity or in average temperature in spring, but these correlations rather reflect a gradual decrease in juvenile survival coinciding with long-term global change than direct causal effects. Surprisingly, vole dynamics did not explain the cyclic dynamics of adult survival rate. Instead, dry and cold years led to low adult survival rates. Low juvenile survival rates, that limit recruitment of first-year breeders, and the regular occurrence of years with poor adult survival, were the most important determinants of the population decline of the little owl. PMID:21153739

  18. Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    PubMed Central

    Douple, Evan B.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M.; Preston, Dale L.; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E.

    2014-01-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200 000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  19. Prolonged Dye Release from Mesoporous Silica-Based Imaging Probes Facilitates Long-Term Optical Tracking of Cell Populations In Vivo.

    PubMed

    Rosenholm, Jessica M; Gulin-Sarfraz, Tina; Mamaeva, Veronika; Niemi, Rasmus; Özliseli, Ezgi; Desai, Diti; Antfolk, Daniel; von Haartman, Eva; Lindberg, Desiré; Prabhakar, Neeraj; Näreoja, Tuomas; Sahlgren, Cecilia

    2016-03-23

    Nanomedicine is gaining ground worldwide in therapy and diagnostics. Novel nanoscopic imaging probes serve as imaging tools for studying dynamic biological processes in vitro and in vivo. To allow detectability in the physiological environment, the nanostructure-based probes need to be either inherently detectable by biomedical imaging techniques, or serve as carriers for existing imaging agents. In this study, the potential of mesoporous silica nanoparticles carrying commercially available fluorochromes as self-regenerating cell labels for long-term cellular tracking is investigated. The particle surface is organically modified for enhanced cellular uptake, the fluorescence intensity of labeled cells is followed over time both in vitro and in vivo. The particles are not exocytosed and particles which escaped cells due to cell injury or death are degraded and no labeling of nontargeted cell populations are observed. The labeling efficiency is significantly improved as compared to that of quantum dots of similar emission wavelength. Labeled human breast cancer cells are xenotransplanted in nude mice, and the fluorescent cells can be detected in vivo for a period of 1 month. Moreover, ex vivo analysis reveals fluorescently labeled metastatic colonies in lymph node and rib, highlighting the capability of the developed probes for tracking of metastasis. PMID:26807551

  20. Long-term depression and suicidal ideation outcomes subsequent to emancipation from foster care: pathways to psychiatric risk in the Métis population.

    PubMed

    Kaspar, Violet

    2014-02-28

    Major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal ideation (SI) associated with history of foster care placement (HxFCP), and mediating effects of psychosocial and socioeconomic factors through which placement may confer psychiatric risks in the years subsequent to emancipation were examined in a national sample of 7534 Métis. More than one third of emancipated respondents reported past year MDE, a prevalence rate nearly 50% higher than the rate of MDE among Métis respondents without a history of placement in foster care. The 25% lifetime prevalence rate of SI in the emancipated group was more than twice the rate observed in the non-fostered group. Direct effects of HxFCP on post placement MDE and SI were significant in multivariate logistic regression analyses, even when effects of childhood predispositional risk factors were controlled statistically. Emancipated individuals were unduly affected by psychosocial and socioeconomic disadvantages signifying pathways that linked foster care placement history and psychiatric status. Main mediators of the effects demonstrated using effect decomposition procedures were self-esteem, income, and community adversity. The findings warrant consideration of foster care history in clarifying the complex etiologies of suicidal ideation and major depressive episode in the Métis population and risk factors ensuing in the intervening years as integral to the process linking placement to long-term psychiatric outcomes. PMID:24373554

  1. Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Douple, Evan B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M; Preston, Dale L; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E

    2011-03-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200,000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor-participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  2. Long-term cardiovascular outcomes and overall survival of early-stage breast cancer patients with early discontinuation of trastuzumab: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Gong, Inna Y; Verma, Sunil; Yan, Andrew T; Ko, Dennis T; Earle, Craig C; Tomlinson, George A; Trudeau, Maureen E; Krahn, Murray D; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Brezden-Masley, Christine B; Gavura, Scott; Peacock, Stuart; Chan, Kelvin K W

    2016-06-01

    We critically examined long-term cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and overall survival (OS) of breast cancer (BC) patients who had cardiotoxicity during adjuvant trastuzumab treatment requiring discontinuation in a population-based sample. This was a retrospective cohort of early-stage BC patients diagnosed before 2010 and treated with trastuzumab in Ontario. Patients were stratified based on trastuzumab doses received: 1-8, 9-15, ≥16 (therapy completion). Time-dependent multivariable Cox models were used to analyze primary endpoint OS, and the following composite endpoints: hospitalization/emergency room visit for heart failure (HF) or death; non-HF CV (myocardial infarction, stroke) or death; and clinically significant relapse (palliative systemic therapy initiation >90 days after last trastuzumab dose) or death. Of the 3134 women, 6, 10, and 85 % received 1-8, 9-15, and ≥16 doses, respectively. Over 5-year median follow-up, early trastuzumab discontinuation was associated with more HF/death [1-8 doses hazard ratio (HR) 4.0, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.7-6.0; 9-15 doses HR 2.97, 95 % CI 2.1-4.3], non-HF/death (1-8 doses HR 4.3, 95 % CI 3.0-6.1; 9-15 doses HR 3.1, 95 % CI 2.2-4.4), clinically significant relapse/death (1-8 doses HR 3.1, 95 % CI 2.2-4.4; 9-15 doses HR 2.4, 95 % CI 1.8-3.3), and importantly lower OS (77, 80, 93 %; P < 0.001). Early discontinuation (1-8 doses HR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.5-3.8; 9-15 doses HR 2.9, 95 % CI 2.0-4.1) and clinically significant relapse (HR 34.0, 95 % CI 24.9-46.6) were both independent predictors of mortality. Of note, early discontinuation remained a critical independent predictor of OS even after adjusting for incident HF. Early trastuzumab discontinuation is a powerful independent predictor of cardiac events and clinically significant relapse, and both may contribute to poor survival. Both adequate cancer control and optimal CV management are required to improve long-term outcomes. PMID:27271767

  3. Long-Term Impact of Preterm Birth on Exercise Capacity in Healthy Young Men: A National Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Svedenkrans, Jenny; Henckel, Ewa; Kowalski, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Background Increasing numbers of survivors of preterm birth are growing into adulthood today. Long-term health-effects of prematurity are still poorly understood, but include increased risk for diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular diseases in adult life. To test if reduced physical fitness may be a link in the causal chain of preterm birth and diseases in later life, the association of preterm birth and adult exercise capacity was investigated. The hypothesis was that preterm birth contributes independently of other risk factors to lower physical fitness in adulthood. Methods and Findings Population-based national cohort study of all males conscripting for military service in 1993–2001 and born in Sweden 1973–1983, n = 218,820. Data were retrieved from the Swedish Conscript Register, the Medical Birth Register and the Population and Housing Census 1990. Primary outcome was the results from maximal exercise test (Wmax in Watt) performed at conscription. Association to perinatal and socioeconomic risk factors, other co-variates and confounders were analysed. General linear modelling showed that preterm birth predicted low Wmax in a dose-response related pattern, with 25 Watt reduction in Wmax for the lowest gestational ages, those born ≤27 weeks. Low birth weight for gestational age also independently predicted low Wmax compared to normal and high birth weight (32 Watt reduction for those with a birth weight Standard Deviation Score <2). Low parental education was significantly associated with reduced Wmax (range 17 Watt), as well as both low and high current BMI, with severe obesity resulting in a 16 Watt deficit compared to Wmax top performance. Conclusion Being born preterm as well as being born small for gestational age predicts low exercise capacity in otherwise healthy young men. The effect size of being born preterm equal or exceed that of other known risk factors for unfitness in adults, such as low parental education and overweight. PMID:24324639

  4. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

    1999-01-01

    Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

  5. Stochastic switching induced adaptation in a starved Escherichia coli population.

    PubMed

    Shimizu, Yoshihiro; Tsuru, Saburo; Ito, Yoichiro; Ying, Bei-Wen; Yomo, Tetsuya

    2011-01-01

    Population adaptation can be determined by stochastic switching in living cells. To examine how stochastic switching contributes to the fate decision for a population under severe stress, we constructed an Escherichia coli strain crucially dependent on the expression of a rewired gene. The gene essential for tryptophan biosynthesis, trpC, was removed from the native regulatory unit, the Trp operon, and placed under the extraneous control of the lactose utilisation network. Bistability of the network provided the cells two discrete phenotypes: the induced and suppressed level of trpC. The two phenotypes permitted the cells to grow or not, respectively, under conditions of tryptophan depletion. We found that stochastic switching between the two states allowed the initially suppressed cells to form a new population with induced trpC in response to tryptophan starvation. However, the frequency of the transition from suppressed to induced state dropped off dramatically in the starved population, in comparison to that in the nourished population. This reduced switching rate was compensated by increasing the initial population size, which probably provided the cell population more chances to wait for the rarely appearing fit cells from the unfit cells. Taken together, adaptation of a starved bacterial population because of stochasticity in the gene rewired from the ancient regulon was experimentally confirmed, and the nutritional status and the population size played a great role in stochastic adaptation. PMID:21931628

  6. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics. PMID:25963669

  7. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

    PubMed Central

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  8. Long-term healthcare use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER)

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Simon; Asaria, Miqdad; Manca, Andrea; Palmer, Stephen; Gale, Chris P.; Shah, Anoop Dinesh; Abrams, Keith R.; Crowther, Michael; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Sculpher, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Aims To examine long-term healthcare utilization and costs of patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD). Methods and results Linked cohort study of 94 966 patients with SCAD in England, 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2010, identified from primary care, secondary care, disease, and death registries. Resource use and costs, and cost predictors by time and 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile were estimated using generalized linear models. Coronary heart disease hospitalizations were 20.5% in the first year and 66% in the year following a non-fatal (myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke) event. Mean healthcare costs were £3133 per patient in the first year and £10 377 in the year following a non-fatal event. First-year predictors of cost included sex (mean cost £549 lower in females), SCAD diagnosis (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction cost £656 more than stable angina), and co-morbidities (heart failure cost £657 more per patient). Compared with lower risk patients (5-year CVD risk 3.5%), those of higher risk (5-year CVD risk 44.2%) had higher 5-year costs (£23 393 vs. £9335) and lower lifetime costs (£43 020 vs. £116 888). Conclusion Patients with SCAD incur substantial healthcare utilization and costs, which varies and may be predicted by 5-year CVD risk profile. Higher risk patients have higher initial but lower lifetime costs than lower risk patients as a result of shorter life expectancy. Improved cardiovascular survivorship among an ageing CVD population is likely to require stratified care in anticipation of the burgeoning demand. PMID:27042338

  9. A Survey of Very-Long-Term Outcomes after Traumatic Brain Injury among Members of a Population-Based Incident Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Moessner, Anne M.; Mandrekar, Jay; Diehl, Nancy N.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Malec, James F.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract To assess quality of life and barriers to participation in vocational and community life for persons with traumatic brain injury (TBI) over the very-long term, a population-based cohort was identified in Olmsted County, Minnesota; 1623 individuals were identified as having experienced a confirmed TBI while a resident of Olmsted County, Minnesota, during the period from 1935–2000. A survey was sent to eligible individuals that included elements of standardized instruments addressing health status and disability, and questions that assessed issues important to successful social reintegration after TBI. Of 1623 eligible participants sent surveys, 605 responded (37% response rate). Thirty-nine percent of respondents were female and 79% had mild injuries. Mean age at injury was 30.8 years, and mean years since injury was 28.8. Overall, respondents reported living in the community; the majority were married and had achieved education beyond high school. Problems with memory, thinking, and physical and emotional health were most often reported. Respondents reported low levels of depression and anxiety, and high levels of satisfaction with life. Seventy-three percent of respondents reported no problems that they attributed to their TBI. Increasing injury severity was associated with a significant risk of reporting injury-related problems at survey completion. Respondents with a longer time since injury were less likely to report any TBI-related problems. These results indicate that self-reported outcomes and adaptation to impairment-related limitations improve as the time since injury increases. These findings highlight the importance of providing coordinated medical rehabilitation and community-based support services to promote positive outcomes over the life span after TBI. PMID:21121813

  10. Long-Term Financial Burden of Breast Cancer: Experiences of a Diverse Cohort of Survivors Identified Through Population-Based Registries

    PubMed Central

    Jagsi, Reshma; Pottow, John A.E.; Griffith, Kent A.; Bradley, Cathy; Hamilton, Ann S.; Graff, John; Katz, Steven J.; Hawley, Sarah T.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the financial experiences of a racially and ethnically diverse cohort of long-term breast cancer survivors (17% African American, 40% Latina) identified through population-based registries. Methods Longitudinal study of women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer in 2005 to 2007 and reported to the SEER registries of metropolitan Los Angeles and Detroit. We surveyed 3,133 women approximately 9 months after diagnosis and 4 years later. Multivariable models evaluated correlates of self-reported decline in financial status attributed to breast cancer and of experiencing at least one type of privation (economically motivated treatment nonadherence and broader hardships related to medical expenses). Results Among 1,502 patients responding to both surveys, median out-of-pocket expenses were ≤ $2,000; 17% of respondents reported spending > $5,000; 12% reported having medical debt 4 years postdiagnosis. Debt varied significantly by race: 9% of whites, 15% of blacks, 17% of English-speaking Latinas, and 10% of Spanish-speaking Latinas reported debt (P = .03). Overall, 25% of women experienced financial decline at least partly attributed to breast cancer; Spanish-speaking Latinas had significantly increased odds of this decline relative to whites (odds ratio [OR], 2.76; P = .006). At least one privation was experienced by 18% of the sample; blacks (OR, 2.6; P < .001) and English-speaking Latinas (OR, 2.2; P = .02) were significantly more likely to have experienced privation than whites. Conclusion Racial and ethnic minority patients appear most vulnerable to privations and financial decline attributable to breast cancer, even after adjustment for income, education, and employment. These findings should motivate efforts to control costs and ensure communication between patients and providers regarding financial distress, particularly for vulnerable subgroups. PMID:24663041

  11. Long-term testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G. A., Jr.

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000-10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  12. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  13. Important factors governing exposure of the population and countermeasure application in rural settlements of the Russian Federation in the long-term after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Fesenko, S; Jacob, P; Alexakhin, R; Sanzharova, N I; Panov, A; Fesenko, G; Cecille, L

    2001-01-01

    Rural settlements located in areas of the Russian Federation contaminated after the Chernobyl accident and exceeding an annual dose of 1 mSv a-1 have been classified according to 137Cs contamination density, internal dose and the neighbourhood of forests. It has been shown that, with the exception of the most contaminated areas, the internal doses decreased in accordance with a decline in 137Cs availability for plant root uptake. An inverse tendency was observed in areas with 137Cs contamination above 555 kBq m-2 which can be explained by a reduction or even termination of countermeasure application and by an increasing consumption of forest products in areas where restrictive countermeasures are still implemented. Twenty-seven settlements have been studied to estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures applied previously and to identify the most important factors governing the radiation exposure to the population and its change with time. It has been shown that the effectiveness of countermeasures which resulted in a decrease of up to 40% of doses has a tendency to decline in the long term. The need for continuation of remediation in rural settlements was evaluated both for selected settlements and extrapolated to the whole contaminated area and it has been shown that the application of countermeasures will be of importance at least up to the year 2045. Rather high effectiveness in terms of internal dose reduction (factor of 2-2.5) of radical improvement (disking, ploughing and reseeding) and administration of Cs binders to animals (Ferrocyn) was demonstrated for the selected settlements. It could be demonstrated that for forest-remote settlements there is a linear dependence between internal dose normalised to the density of contamination and the proportion of peat soils around settlements. For near-forest settlements, this dependence was less pronounced which can be explained by the high contribution of forest food products to the internal dose. Milk is still

  14. NATIONAL LONG TERM CARE SURVEY (NLTCS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) are surveys of the entire aged population with a particular emphasis on the functionally impaired. Longitudinal study of the health and well-being of elderly Americans. Information about the population of chronically disabled elderly person...

  15. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images.

  16. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    SciTech Connect

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time.

  17. Long-term environmental stewardship.

    SciTech Connect

    Nagy, Michael David

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this Supplemental Information Source Document is to effectively describe Long-Term Environmental Stewardship (LTES) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). More specifically, this document describes the LTES and Long-Term Stewardship (LTS) Programs, distinguishes between the LTES and LTS Programs, and summarizes the current status of the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project.

  18. Presynaptic long-term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ying; Calakos, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is a major cellular substrate for learning, memory, and behavioral adaptation. Although early examples of long-term synaptic plasticity described a mechanism by which postsynaptic signal transduction was potentiated, it is now apparent that there is a vast array of mechanisms for long-term synaptic plasticity that involve modifications to either or both the presynaptic terminal and postsynaptic site. In this article, we discuss current and evolving approaches to identify presynaptic mechanisms as well as discuss their limitations. We next provide examples of the diverse circuits in which presynaptic forms of long-term synaptic plasticity have been described and discuss the potential contribution this form of plasticity might add to circuit function. Finally, we examine the present evidence for the molecular pathways and cellular events underlying presynaptic long-term synaptic plasticity. PMID:24146648

  19. Herbivore population regulation and resource heterogeneity in a stochastic environment.

    PubMed

    Hempson, G P; Illius, A W; Hendricks, H H; Bond, W J; Vetter, S

    2015-08-01

    Large-mammal herbivore populations are subject to the interaction of internal density-dependent processes and external environmental stochasticity. We disentangle these processes by linking consumer population dynamics, in a highly stochastic environment, to the availability of their key forage resource via effects on body condition and subsequent fecundity and mortality rates. Body condition and demographic rate data were obtained by monitoring 500 tagged female goats in the Richtersveld National Park, South Africa, over a three-year period. Identifying the key resource and pathway to density dependence for a population allows environmental stochasticity to be partitioned into that which has strong feedbacks to population stability, and that which does not. Our data reveal a density- dependent seasonal decline in goat body condition in response to concomitant density-dependent depletion of the dry-season forage resource. The loss in body condition reduced density-dependent pregnancy rates, litter sizes, and pre-weaning survival. Survival was lowest following the most severe dry season and for juveniles. Adult survival in the late-dry season depended on body condition in the mid-dry season. Population growth was determined by the length of the dry season and the population size in the previous year. The RNP goat population is thereby dynamically coupled primarily to its dry-season forage resource. Extreme environmental variability thus does not decouple consumer resource dynamics, in contrast to the views of nonequilibrium protagonists. PMID:26405742

  20. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  1. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations. PMID:26172687

  2. Long-Term Stability of Social Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo

    2008-01-01

    The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…

  3. A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Sanders-Reed, C.A.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

  4. A Core Stochastic Population Projection Model for Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

  5. Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines

    PubMed Central

    Potts, Nicholas L.S.; Krishnan, K. Ranga R.

    1992-01-01

    Problems associated with physical dependence and abuse of benzodiazepines by a small percentage of patients have reduced their popularity from the most commonly prescribed psychoactive drug in the 1970s to being prescribed for mainly short periods. Patients who benefit from long-term benzodiazepine use are nearly ignored by the medical community as a whole. This article details what patient population can improve from long-term benzodiazepine therapy, the risks and benefits of treatment, and how to select appropriate candidates. PMID:21229127

  6. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  7. Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

    PubMed Central

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

    2006-01-01

    Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

  8. Long term complications of diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long term complications of diabetes To use the sharing ... sores and infections. If it goes on too long, your toes, foot, or leg may need to ...

  9. Abdominal Pain, Long-Term

    MedlinePlus

    MENU Return to Web version Abdominal Pain, Long-term See complete list of charts. Ongoing or recurrent abdominal pain, also called chronic pain, may be difficult to diagnose, causing frustration for ...

  10. Long-term Outcomes after Severe Shock

    PubMed Central

    Pratt, Cristina M.; Hirshberg, Eliotte L.; Jones, Jason P.; Kuttler, Kathryn G.; Lanspa, Michael J.; Wilson, Emily L.; Hopkins, Ramona O.; Brown, Samuel M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Methods Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 mcg/kg/min of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured three-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. Results The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years: 82% (62/76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of five years after hospital admission. The patients’ Physical Functioning scores were below US population norms (p<0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full time. Conclusions Early survivors of severe shock had a high three-year survival rate. Patients’ long term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill ICU survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term