Correlations, Trends and Potential Biases among Publicly Accessible Web-Based Student Evaluations of Teaching: A Large-Scale Study of RateMyProfessors.com Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Andrew S.

2018-01-01

Student evaluations of teaching are widely adopted across academic institutions, but there are many underlying trends and biases that can influence their interpretation. Publicly accessible web-based student evaluations of teaching are of particular relevance, due to their widespread use by students in the course selection process and the quantity…

The Likelihood of Injury Among Bias Crimes: An Analysis of General and Specific Bias Types.

PubMed

Pezzella, Frank S; Fetzer, Matthew D

2015-06-18

In 2009, President Barack Obama signed the Mathew Sheppard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Protection act and thereby extended the list of previously protected classes of victims from actual or perceived race, color, religion, national origin, disability and sex orientation to gender and gender identity. Over 45 states, the District of Columbia and the federal government now include hate crime statutes that increase penalties when offenders perpetrate hate crimes against protected classes of victims. Penalty enhancement statutes sanction unlawful bias conduct arguably because they result in more severe injuries relative to non-bias conduct. We contend that physical injuries vary by bias type and are not equally injurious. Data on bias crimes was analyzed from the National Incident Based Reporting System. Descriptive patterns of bias crimes were identified by offense type, bias motivation and major and minor injuries. Using Multivariate analyses, we found an escalating trend of violence against racial minorities. Moreover, relative to non-bias crimes, only anti-White and anti-lesbian bias crimes experienced our two prong "animus" criteria of disproportionate prevalence and severity of injury. However, when compared to anti-White bias, anti-Black bias crimes were more prevalent and likely to suffer serious injuries. Implications for hate crime jurisprudence are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

The search for loci under selection: trends, biases and progress.

PubMed

Ahrens, Collin W; Rymer, Paul D; Stow, Adam; Bragg, Jason; Dillon, Shannon; Umbers, Kate D L; Dudaniec, Rachael Y

2018-03-01

Detecting genetic variants under selection using F ST outlier analysis (OA) and environmental association analyses (EAAs) are popular approaches that provide insight into the genetic basis of local adaptation. Despite the frequent use of OA and EAA approaches and their increasing attractiveness for detecting signatures of selection, their application to field-based empirical data have not been synthesized. Here, we review 66 empirical studies that use Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in OA and EAA. We report trends and biases across biological systems, sequencing methods, approaches, parameters, environmental variables and their influence on detecting signatures of selection. We found striking variability in both the use and reporting of environmental data and statistical parameters. For example, linkage disequilibrium among SNPs and numbers of unique SNP associations identified with EAA were rarely reported. The proportion of putatively adaptive SNPs detected varied widely among studies, and decreased with the number of SNPs analysed. We found that genomic sampling effort had a greater impact than biological sampling effort on the proportion of identified SNPs under selection. OA identified a higher proportion of outliers when more individuals were sampled, but this was not the case for EAA. To facilitate repeatability, interpretation and synthesis of studies detecting selection, we recommend that future studies consistently report geographical coordinates, environmental data, model parameters, linkage disequilibrium, and measures of genetic structure. Identifying standards for how OA and EAA studies are designed and reported will aid future transparency and comparability of SNP-based selection studies and help to progress landscape and evolutionary genomics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

2017-02-01

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global

Precision and bias of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1983; and January 1980 through September 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroder, L.J.; Bricker, A.W.; Willoughby, T.C.

1985-01-01

Blind-audit samples with known analyte concentrations have been prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey and distributed to the National Atmospheric Deposition Program 's Central Analytical Laboratory. The difference between the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network reported analyte concentrations and known analyte concentrations have been calculated, and the bias has been determined. Calcium, magnesium , sodium, and chloride were biased at the 99-percent confidence limit; potassium and sulfate were unbiased at the 99-percent confidence limit, for 1983 results. Relative-percent differences between the measured and known analyte concentration for calcium , magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate have been calculated for 1983. The median relative percent difference for calcium was 17.0; magnesium was 6.4; sodium was 10.8; potassium was 6.4; chloride was 17.2; and sulfate was -5.3. These relative percent differences should be used to correct the 1983 data before user-analysis of the data. Variances have been calculated for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate determinations. These variances should be applicable to natural-sample analyte concentrations reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network for calendar year 1983. (USGS)

This week?s Citation Classic: 'Stickel, L. F. A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals. J. Mammalogy 35: 1-15, 1954.'

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stickel, L.F.

1986-01-01

During my first employment as a junior biologist conducting food habits analyses at the Patuxent Research Refuge (now Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the first station director, Arnold L. Nelson, gave each staff biologist the opportunity to spend a little time conducting field studies on the 2,600-acre research area. These studies were to help in ecological evaluation of the area, but also, no doubt, functioned as a morale builder for biologists daily engaged in difficult, demanding and confining laboratory work. I undertook to measure the population density of small mammals in different habitats. The state-of-the-art methods recommended to me and prevalent in the literature worried me, especially after preliminary field work. Reading the classic, paper by W.H. Burt [Terrioriality and home range concepts as applied to mammals. J. Mammalogy 24:346-352, 1943] was a turning point for me in seeing that knowledge of home-range size was the key to measuring population density. My first papers employed these concepts in field evaluations. However, they could give-only limited attention to the question of how home ranges could be measured. Furthermore, the importance of knowledge of the home range to habitat evaluation and to understanding animal behavior was becoming increasingly apparent. Advocacy of many different methods of measuring home ranges appeared in the literature. It did not seem possible to evaluate them objectively. It occurred to me that artificial populations could be used to help in understanding the mechanisms of measuring home ranges. The effects of random trap-visiting, bias toward central traps, trap-spacing, range shape, and other factors could be considered. So grids of traps were inked onto oversize graph paper, and simulated ranges were cut from plastic to be tossed as randomly as possible on the trap-grids. It was a slow, laborious job. Analysis showed that random captures in artificial populations produced

Possible Biases of Researchers' Attitudes Toward Video Games: Publication Trends Analysis of the Medical Literature (1980-2013).

PubMed

Segev, Aviv; Rovner, Mitchell; Appel, David Ian; Abrams, Aaron W; Rotem, Michal; Bloch, Yuval

2016-07-18

The study of video games is expanding, and so is the debate regarding their possible positive and deleterious effects. As controversies continue, several researchers have expressed their concerns about substantial biases existing in the field, which might lead to the creation of a skewed picture, both in the professional and in the lay literature. However, no study has tried to examine this issue quantitatively. The objective of our study was to examine possible systematic biases in the literature, by analyzing the publication trends of the medical and life sciences literature regarding video games. We performed a complete and systematic PubMed search up to December 31, 2013. We assessed all 1927 articles deemed relevant for their attitude toward video games according to the focus, hypothesis, and authors' interpretation of the study results, using a 3-category outcome (positive, negative, and neutral). We assessed the prevalence of different attitudes for possible association with year of publication, location of researchers, academic discipline, methodological research, and centrality of the publishing journals. The attitude toward video games presented in publications varied by year of publication, location, academic discipline, and methodological research applied (P<.001 for all). Moreover, representation of different attitudes differed according to centrality of the journals, as measured by their impact factor (P<.001). The results suggest that context, whether scientific or social, is related to researchers' attitudes toward video games. Readers, both lay and professional, should weigh these contextual variables when interpreting studies' results, in light of the possible bias they carry. The results also support a need for a more balanced, open-minded approach toward video games, as it is likely that this complex phenomenon carries novel opportunities as well as new hazards.

Correction Technique for Raman Water Vapor Lidar Signal-Dependent Bias and Suitability for Water Wapor Trend Monitoring in the Upper Troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, D. N.; Cadirola, M.; Venable, D.; Calhoun, M.; Miloshevich, L; Vermeesch, K.; Twigg, L.; Dirisu, A.; Hurst, D.; Hall, E.;

Possible Biases of Researchers’ Attitudes Toward Video Games: Publication Trends Analysis of the Medical Literature (1980–2013)

PubMed Central

Rovner, Mitchell; Appel, David Ian; Abrams, Aaron W; Rotem, Michal; Bloch, Yuval

2016-01-01

Background The study of video games is expanding, and so is the debate regarding their possible positive and deleterious effects. As controversies continue, several researchers have expressed their concerns about substantial biases existing in the field, which might lead to the creation of a skewed picture, both in the professional and in the lay literature. However, no study has tried to examine this issue quantitatively. Objective The objective of our study was to examine possible systematic biases in the literature, by analyzing the publication trends of the medical and life sciences literature regarding video games. Methods We performed a complete and systematic PubMed search up to December 31, 2013. We assessed all 1927 articles deemed relevant for their attitude toward video games according to the focus, hypothesis, and authors’ interpretation of the study results, using a 3-category outcome (positive, negative, and neutral). We assessed the prevalence of different attitudes for possible association with year of publication, location of researchers, academic discipline, methodological research, and centrality of the publishing journals. Results The attitude toward video games presented in publications varied by year of publication, location, academic discipline, and methodological research applied (P<.001 for all). Moreover, representation of different attitudes differed according to centrality of the journals, as measured by their impact factor (P<.001). Conclusions The results suggest that context, whether scientific or social, is related to researchers’ attitudes toward video games. Readers, both lay and professional, should weigh these contextual variables when interpreting studies’ results, in light of the possible bias they carry. The results also support a need for a more balanced, open-minded approach toward video games, as it is likely that this complex phenomenon carries novel opportunities as well as new hazards. PMID:27430187

Anticlockwise or Clockwise? A Dynamic Perception-Action-Laterality Model for Directionality Bias in Visuospatial Functioning

PubMed Central

Karim, A.K.M. Rezaul; Proulx, Michael J.; Likova, Lora T.

2016-01-01

Reviewing the relevant literature in visual psychophysics and visual neuroscience we propose a three-stage model of directionality bias in visuospatial functioning. We call this model the ‘Perception-Action-Laterality’ (PAL) hypothesis. We analyzed the research findings for a wide range of visuospatial tasks, showing that there are two major directionality trends: clockwise versus anticlockwise. It appears these preferences are combinatorial, such that a majority of people fall in the first category demonstrating a preference for stimuli/objects arranged from left-to-right rather than from right-to-left, while people in the second category show an opposite trend. These perceptual biases can guide sensorimotor integration and action, creating two corresponding turner groups in the population. In support of PAL, we propose another model explaining the origins of the biases– how the neurogenetic factors and the cultural factors interact in a biased competition framework to determine the direction and extent of biases. This dynamic model can explain not only the two major categories of biases, but also the unbiased, unreliably biased or mildly biased cases in visuosptial functioning. PMID:27350096

Anticlockwise or clockwise? A dynamic Perception-Action-Laterality model for directionality bias in visuospatial functioning.

PubMed

Karim, A K M Rezaul; Proulx, Michael J; Likova, Lora T

2016-09-01

Orientation bias and directionality bias are two fundamental functional characteristics of the visual system. Reviewing the relevant literature in visual psychophysics and visual neuroscience we propose here a three-stage model of directionality bias in visuospatial functioning. We call this model the 'Perception-Action-Laterality' (PAL) hypothesis. We analyzed the research findings for a wide range of visuospatial tasks, showing that there are two major directionality trends in perceptual preference: clockwise versus anticlockwise. It appears these preferences are combinatorial, such that a majority of people fall in the first category demonstrating a preference for stimuli/objects arranged from left-to-right rather than from right-to-left, while people in the second category show an opposite trend. These perceptual biases can guide sensorimotor integration and action, creating two corresponding turner groups in the population. In support of PAL, we propose another model explaining the origins of the biases - how the neurogenetic factors and the cultural factors interact in a biased competition framework to determine the direction and extent of biases. This dynamic model can explain not only the two major categories of biases in terms of direction and strength, but also the unbiased, unreliably biased or mildly biased cases in visuosptial functioning. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

PubMed

Groth, Detlef

2017-04-01

Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later

Bias and precision of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, M.H.; Schroder, L.J.; Willoughby, T.C.

1987-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey operated a blind audit sample program during 1974 to test the effects of the sample handling and shipping procedures used by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network on the quality of wet deposition data produced by the combined networks. Blind audit samples, which were dilutions of standard reference water samples, were submitted by network site operators to the central analytical laboratory disguised as actual wet deposition samples. Results from the analyses of blind audit samples were used to calculate estimates of analyte bias associated with all network wet deposition samples analyzed in 1984 and to estimate analyte precision. Concentration differences between double blind samples that were submitted to the central analytical laboratory and separate analyses of aliquots of those blind audit samples that had not undergone network sample handling and shipping were used to calculate analyte masses that apparently were added to each blind audit sample by routine network handling and shipping procedures. These calculated masses indicated statistically significant biases for magnesium, sodium , potassium, chloride, and sulfate. Median calculated masses were 41.4 micrograms (ug) for calcium, 14.9 ug for magnesium, 23.3 ug for sodium, 0.7 ug for potassium, 16.5 ug for chloride and 55.3 ug for sulfate. Analyte precision was estimated using two different sets of replicate measures performed by the central analytical laboratory. Estimated standard deviations were similar to those previously reported. (Author 's abstract)

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

DOE PAGES

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; ...

2017-09-13

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing onmore » the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.« less

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing onmore » the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.« less

Verb bias and verb-specific competition effects on sentence production

PubMed Central

Thothathiri, Malathi; Evans, Daniel G.; Poudel, Sonali

2017-01-01

How do speakers choose between structural options for expressing a given meaning? Overall preference for some structures over others as well as prior statistical association between specific verbs and sentence structures (“verb bias”) are known to broadly influence language use. However, the effects of prior statistical experience on the planning and execution of utterances and the mechanisms that facilitate structural choice for verbs with different biases have not been fully explored. In this study, we manipulated verb bias for English double-object (DO) and prepositional-object (PO) dative structures: some verbs appeared solely in the DO structure (DO-only), others solely in PO (PO-only) and yet others equally in both (Equi). Structural choices during subsequent free-choice sentence production revealed the expected dispreference for DO overall but critically also a reliable linear trend in DO production that was consistent with verb bias (DO-only > Equi > PO-only). Going beyond the general verb bias effect, three results suggested that Equi verbs, which were associated equally with the two structures, engendered verb-specific competition and required additional resources for choosing the dispreferred DO structure. First, DO production with Equi verbs but not the other verbs correlated with participants’ inhibition ability. Second, utterance duration prior to the choice of a DO structure showed a quadratic trend (DO-only < Equi > PO-only) with the longest durations for Equi verbs. Third, eye movements consistent with reimagining the event also showed a quadratic trend (DO-only < Equi > PO-only) prior to choosing DO, suggesting that participants used such recall particularly for Equi verbs. Together, these analyses of structural choices, utterance durations, eye movements and individual differences in executive functions shed light on the effects of verb bias and verb-specific competition on sentence production and the role of different executive functions

Perspectives of voltage control for magnetic exchange bias in multiferroic heterostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Zhou, Z.; Sun, N. X.; Liu, M.

2017-04-01

Exchange bias, as an internal magnetic bias induced by a ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic exchange coupling, is extremely important in many magnetic applications such as memories, sensors and other devices. Voltage control of exchange bias in multiferroics provides an energy-efficient way to achieve a rapidly 180° deterministic switching of magnetization, which has been considered as a key challenge in realizing next generation of fast, compact and ultra-low power magnetoelectric memories and sensors. Additionally, exchange bias can enhance dynamic magnetoelectric coupling strength in an external-field-free manner. In this paper, we provide a perspective on voltage control of exchange bias in different multiferroic heterostructures. Brief mechanization and related experiments are discussed as well as future trend and challenges that can be overcome by electrically tuning of exchange bias in state-of-the-art magnetoelectric devices.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Trends in Gender Bias Across Earth and Space Science Scholarly Publishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerback, J. C.; Hanson, B.

2016-12-01

It has been challenging to assess gender bias across scholarly publishing in part because data on both gender and age are needed, as the proportion of women varies with age across most disciplines. To address this, we matched the member database of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), where age and gender are self-reported, with the AGU editorial database. The proportion of women members increased since 2013 across all disciplines from 24.6 to 26.9%. The proportion of women publishing as first authors increased across most disciplines and overall from 24.8 to 25.9%; however, it decreased in atmospheric science, global change, and planetary science. Overall, women had a higher acceptance rate than men across all in aggregate, 60.4 vs. 56.4% and equal or higher in all disciplines. Co-author behavior did not vary greatly across disciplines; most female first authors had 20% female co-authors, whereas male first authors have 15% female co-authors. Women were used less often as reviewers (17.9% of the time) than expected based on their membership in the society and their rate as accepted first authors (26.7% female) and all accepted authors (23.3%). Furthermore, the proportion of reviews done by women did not increase in several disciplines from 2012-2015, including atmospheric science, geology and geophysics, mathematical geophysics, and planetary science. The bias is a result of fewer suggestions of women reviewers by male authors and editors, and also a higher decline rate by women within each age cohort when asked to review. Invitations to women to review increased from 16.7% in 2012 to 18.5% in 2015 overall, but not in geology and geophysics, planetary sciences, and space sciences. Participating as a reviewer can have important career benefits; thus, addressing this bias is important for addressing pipeline issues and improving retention of women in the field.

Mutational Biases and GC-Biased Gene Conversion Affect GC Content in the Plastomes of Dendrobium Genus

PubMed Central

Niu, Zhitao; Xue, Qingyun; Wang, Hui; Xie, Xuezhu; Zhu, Shuying; Liu, Wei; Ding, Xiaoyu

2017-01-01

The variation of GC content is a key genome feature because it is associated with fundamental elements of genome organization. However, the reason for this variation is still an open question. Different kinds of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the variation of GC content during genome evolution. However, these hypotheses have not been explicitly investigated in whole plastome sequences. Dendrobium is one of the largest genera in the orchid species. Evolutionary studies of the plastomic organization and base composition are limited in this genus. In this study, we obtained the high-quality plastome sequences of D. loddigesii and D. devonianum. The comparison results showed a nearly identical organization in Dendrobium plastomes, indicating that the plastomic organization is highly conserved in Dendrobium genus. Furthermore, the impact of three evolutionary forces—selection, mutational biases, and GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC)—on the variation of GC content in Dendrobium plastomes was evaluated. Our results revealed: (1) consistent GC content evolution trends and mutational biases in single-copy (SC) and inverted repeats (IRs) regions; and (2) that gBGC has influenced the plastome-wide GC content evolution. These results suggest that both mutational biases and gBGC affect GC content in the plastomes of Dendrobium genus. PMID:29099062

Bias against research on gender bias.

PubMed

Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

2018-01-01

The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

Physician Racial Bias and Word Use during Racially Discordant Medical Interactions.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Nao; Slatcher, Richard B; Eggly, Susan; Penner, Louis A

2017-04-01

Physician racial bias can negatively affect Black patients' reactions to racially discordant medical interactions, suggesting that racial bias is manifested in physicians' communication with their Black patients. However, little is known about how physician racial bias actually influences their communication during these interactions. This study investigated how non-Black physicians' racial bias is related to their word use during medical interactions with Black patients. One hundred and seventeen video-recorded racially discordant medical interactions from a larger study were transcribed and analyzed using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software. Physicians with higher levels of implicit racial bias used first-person plural pronouns and anxiety-related words more frequently than physicians with lower levels of implicit bias. There was also a trend for physicians with higher levels of explicit racial bias to use first-person singular pronouns more frequently than physicians with lower levels of explicit bias. These findings suggest that non-Black physicians with higher levels of implicit racial bias may tend to use more words that reflect social dominance (i.e., first-person plural pronouns) and anxiety when interacting with Black patients.

Physician Racial Bias and Word Use during Racially Discordant Medical Interactions

PubMed Central

Hagiwara, Nao; Slatcher, Richard B.; Eggly, Susan; Penner, Louis A.

2016-01-01

Physician racial bias can negatively affect Black patients’ reactions to racially discordant medical interactions, suggesting that racial bias is manifested in physicians’ communication with their Black patients. However, little is known about how physician racial bias actually influences their communication during these interactions. This study investigated how non-Black physicians’ racial bias is related to their word use during medical interactions with Black patients. One hundred and seventeen video-recorded racially discordant medical interactions from a larger study were transcribed and analyzed using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software. Physicians with higher levels of implicit racial bias used first-person plural pronouns and anxiety-related words more frequently than physicians with lower levels of implicit bias. There was also a trend for physicians with higher levels of explicit racial bias to use first-person singular pronouns more frequently than physicians with lower levels of explicit bias. These findings suggest that non-Black physicians with higher levels of implicit racial bias may tend to use more words that reflect social dominance (i.e., first-person plural pronouns) and anxiety when interacting with Black patients. PMID:27309596

A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grillakis, Manolis G.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

2017-09-01

Bias correction of climate variables is a standard practice in climate change impact (CCI) studies. Various methodologies have been developed within the framework of quantile mapping. However, it is well known that quantile mapping may significantly modify the long-term statistics due to the time dependency of the temperature bias. Here, a method to overcome this issue without compromising the day-to-day correction statistics is presented. The methodology separates the modeled temperature signal into a normalized and a residual component relative to the modeled reference period climatology, in order to adjust the biases only for the former and preserve the signal of the later. The results show that this method allows for the preservation of the originally modeled long-term signal in the mean, the standard deviation and higher and lower percentiles of temperature. To illustrate the improvements, the methodology is tested on daily time series obtained from five Euro CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs).

A systematic review of context bias in invasion biology.

PubMed

Warren, Robert J; King, Joshua R; Tarsa, Charlene; Haas, Brian; Henderson, Jeremy

2017-01-01

The language that scientists use to frame biological invasions may reveal inherent bias-including how data are interpreted. A frequent critique of invasion biology is the use of value-laden language that may indicate context bias. Here we use a systematic study of language and interpretation in papers drawn from invasion biology to evaluate whether there is a link between the framing of papers and the interpretation of results. We also examine any trends in context bias in biological invasion research. We examined 651 peer-reviewed invasive species competition studies and implemented a rigorous systematic review to examine bias in the presentation and interpretation of native and invasive competition in invasion biology. We predicted that bias in the presentation of invasive species is increasing, as suggested by several authors, and that bias against invasive species would result in misinterpreting their competitive dominance in correlational observational studies compared to causative experimental studies. We indeed found evidence of bias in the presentation and interpretation of invasive species research; authors often introduced research with invasive species in a negative context and study results were interpreted against invasive species more in correlational studies. However, we also found a distinct decrease in those biases since the mid-2000s. Given that there have been several waves of criticism from scientists both inside and outside invasion biology, our evidence suggests that the subdiscipline has somewhat self-corrected apparent biases.

Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, M. C.

1982-01-01

Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

Bias to experience approaching motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment.

PubMed

Lewis, Clifford F; McBeath, Michael K

2004-01-01

We used two-frame apparent motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment to test whether observers had biases to experience approaching or receding motion in depth. Observers viewed a tunnel of tiles receding in depth, that moved ambiguously either toward or away from them. We found that observers exhibited biases to experience approaching motion. The strengths of the biases were decreased when stimuli pointed away, but size of the display screen had no effect. Tests with diamond-shaped tiles that varied in the degree of pointing asymmetry resulted in a linear trend in which the bias was strongest for stimuli pointing toward the viewer, and weakest for stimuli pointing away. We show that the overall bias to experience approaching motion is consistent with a computational strategy of matching corresponding features between adjacent foreshortened stimuli in consecutive visual frames. We conclude that there are both adaptational and geometric reasons to favor the experience of approaching motion.

Dependence of Halo Bias and Kinematics on Assembly Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaoju; Zheng, Zheng

2018-06-01

Using dark matter haloes identified in a large N-body simulation, we study halo assembly bias, with halo formation time, peak maximum circular velocity, concentration, and spin as the assembly variables. Instead of grouping haloes at fixed mass into different percentiles of each assembly variable, we present the joint dependence of halo bias on the values of halo mass and each assembly variable. In the plane of halo mass and one assembly variable, the joint dependence can be largely described as halo bias increasing outward from a global minimum. We find it unlikely to have a combination of halo variables to absorb all assembly bias effects. We then present the joint dependence of halo bias on two assembly variables at fixed halo mass. The gradient of halo bias does not necessarily follow the correlation direction of the two assembly variables and it varies with halo mass. Therefore in general for two correlated assembly variables one cannot be used as a proxy for the other in predicting halo assembly bias trend. Finally, halo assembly is found to affect the kinematics of haloes. Low-mass haloes formed earlier can have much higher pairwise velocity dispersion than those of massive haloes. In general, halo assembly leads to a correlation between halo bias and halo pairwise velocity distribution, with more strongly clustered haloes having higher pairwise velocity and velocity dispersion. However, the correlation is not tight, and the kinematics of haloes at fixed halo bias still depends on halo mass and assembly variables.

Referral bias in ALS epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Logroscino, Giancarlo; Marin, Benoit; Piccininni, Marco; Arcuti, Simona; Chiò, Adriano; Hardiman, Orla; Rooney, James; Zoccolella, Stefano; Couratier, Philippe; Preux, Pierre-Marie; Beghi, Ettore

2018-01-01

Despite concerns about the representativeness of patients from ALS tertiary centers as compared to the ALS general population, the extent of referral bias in clinical studies remains largely unknown. Using data from EURALS consortium we aimed to assess nature, extent and impact of referral bias. Four European ALS population-based registries located in Ireland, Piedmont, Puglia, Italy, and Limousin, France, covering 50 million person-years, participated. Demographic and clinic characteristics of ALS patients diagnosed in tertiary referral centers were contrasted with the whole ALS populations enrolled in registries in the same geographical areas. Patients referred to ALS centers were younger (with difference ranging from 1.1 years to 2.4 years), less likely to present a bulbar onset, with a higher proportion of familial antecedents and a longer survival (ranging from 11% to 15%) when compared to the entire ALS population in the same geographic area. A trend for referral bias is present in cohorts drawn from ALS referral centers. The magnitude of the possible referral bias in a particular tertiary center can be estimated through a comparison with ALS patients drawn from registry in the same geographic area. Studies based on clinical cohorts should be cautiously interpreted. The presence of a registry in the same area may improve the complete ascertainment in the referral center.

Referral bias in ALS epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Marin, Benoit; Piccininni, Marco; Arcuti, Simona; Chiò, Adriano; Hardiman, Orla; Rooney, James; Zoccolella, Stefano; Couratier, Philippe; Preux, Pierre-Marie; Beghi, Ettore

2018-01-01

Background Despite concerns about the representativeness of patients from ALS tertiary centers as compared to the ALS general population, the extent of referral bias in clinical studies remains largely unknown. Using data from EURALS consortium we aimed to assess nature, extent and impact of referral bias. Methods Four European ALS population-based registries located in Ireland, Piedmont, Puglia, Italy, and Limousin, France, covering 50 million person-years, participated. Demographic and clinic characteristics of ALS patients diagnosed in tertiary referral centers were contrasted with the whole ALS populations enrolled in registries in the same geographical areas. Results Patients referred to ALS centers were younger (with difference ranging from 1.1 years to 2.4 years), less likely to present a bulbar onset, with a higher proportion of familial antecedents and a longer survival (ranging from 11% to 15%) when compared to the entire ALS population in the same geographic area. Conclusions A trend for referral bias is present in cohorts drawn from ALS referral centers. The magnitude of the possible referral bias in a particular tertiary center can be estimated through a comparison with ALS patients drawn from registry in the same geographic area. Studies based on clinical cohorts should be cautiously interpreted. The presence of a registry in the same area may improve the complete ascertainment in the referral center. PMID:29659621

Linear and non-linear bias: predictions versus measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

2017-02-01

We study the linear and non-linear bias parameters which determine the mapping between the distributions of galaxies and the full matter density fields, comparing different measurements and predictions. Associating galaxies with dark matter haloes in the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) Grand Challenge N-body simulation, we directly measure the bias parameters by comparing the smoothed density fluctuations of haloes and matter in the same region at different positions as a function of smoothing scale. Alternatively, we measure the bias parameters by matching the probability distributions of halo and matter density fluctuations, which can be applied to observations. These direct bias measurements are compared to corresponding measurements from two-point and different third-order correlations, as well as predictions from the peak-background model, which we presented in previous papers using the same data. We find an overall variation of the linear bias measurements and predictions of ˜5 per cent with respect to results from two-point correlations for different halo samples with masses between ˜1012and1015 h-1 M⊙ at the redshifts z = 0.0 and 0.5. Variations between the second- and third-order bias parameters from the different methods show larger variations, but with consistent trends in mass and redshift. The various bias measurements reveal a tight relation between the linear and the quadratic bias parameters, which is consistent with results from the literature based on simulations with different cosmologies. Such a universal relation might improve constraints on cosmological models, derived from second-order clustering statistics at small scales or higher order clustering statistics.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Trend Accuracy

PubMed Central

Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J. Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. PMID:24876437

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

2016-09-01

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

Killer whales and marine mammal trends in the North Pacific - A re-examination of evidence for sequential megafauna collapse and the prey-switching hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, P.R.; Burkanov, V.N.; Dahlheim, M.E.; Friday, N.A.; Fritz, L.W.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mizroch, S.A.; Muto, M.M.; Rice, D.W.; Barrett-Lennard, L. G.; Black, N.A.; Burdin, A.M.; Calambokidis, J.; Cerchio, S.; Ford, J.K.B.; Jacobsen, J.K.; Matkin, C.O.; Matkin, D.R.; Mehta, A.V.; Small, R.J.; Straley, J.M.; McCluskey, S.M.; VanBlaricom, G.R.; Clapham, P.J.

2007-01-01

Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling's removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50-100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

The impact of nonuniform sampling on stratospheric ozone trends derived from occultation instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damadeo, Robert P.; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Walker, Kaley A.

2018-01-01

This paper applies a recently developed technique for deriving long-term trends in ozone from sparsely sampled data sets to multiple occultation instruments simultaneously without the need for homogenization. The technique can compensate for the nonuniform temporal, spatial, and diurnal sampling of the different instruments and can also be used to account for biases and drifts between instruments. These problems have been noted in recent international assessments as being a primary source of uncertainty that clouds the significance of derived trends. Results show potential recovery trends of ˜ 2-3 % decade-1 in the upper stratosphere at midlatitudes, which are similar to other studies, and also how sampling biases present in these data sets can create differences in derived recovery trends of up to ˜ 1 % decade-1 if not properly accounted for. Limitations inherent to all techniques (e.g., relative instrument drifts) and their impacts (e.g., trend differences up to ˜ 2 % decade-1) are also described and a potential path forward towards resolution is presented.

Risk factors for chronic subdural haematoma formation do not account for the established male bias.

PubMed

Marshman, Laurence A G; Manickam, Appukutty; Carter, Danielle

2015-04-01

The 'subdural space' is an artefact of inner dural border layer disruption: it is not anatomical but always pathological. A male bias has long been accepted for chronic subdural haematomas (CSDH), and increased male frequencies of trauma and/or alcohol abuse are often cited as likely explanations: however, no study has validated this. We investigated to see which risk factors accounted for the male bias with CSDH. Retrospective review of prospectively collected data. A male bias (M:F 97:58) for CSDH was confirmed in n=155 patients. The largest risk factor for CSDH was cerebral atrophy (M:F 94% vs. 91%): whilst a male bias prevailed in mild-moderate cases (M:F 58% vs. 41%), a female bias prevailed for severe atrophy (F:M 50% vs. 36%) (χ(2)=3.88, P=0.14). Risk factors for atrophy also demonstrated a female bias, some approached statistical significance: atrial fibrillation (P=0.05), stroke/TIA (P=0.06) and diabetes mellitus (P=0.07). There was also a trend for older age in females (F:M 72±13 years vs. 68±15 years, P=0.09). The third largest risk factor, after atrophy and trauma (i.e. anti-coagulant and anti-platelet use) was statistically significantly biased towards females (F:M 50% vs. 33%, P=0.04). No risk factor accounted for the established male bias with CSDH. In particular, a history of trauma (head injury or fall [M:F 50% vs. 57%, P=0.37]), and alcohol abuse (M:F 17% vs. 16%, P=0.89) was remarkably similar between genders. No recognised risk factor for CSDH formation accounted for the established male bias: risk factor trends generally favoured females. In particular, and in contrast to popular belief, a male CSDH bias did not relate to increased male frequencies of trauma and/or alcohol abuse. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parenting practices, interpretive biases, and anxiety in Latino children.

PubMed

Varela, R Enrique; Niditch, Laura A; Hensley-Maloney, Lauren; Moore, Kathryn W; Creveling, C Christiane

2013-03-01

A number of factors are believed to confer risk for anxiety development in children; however, cultural variation of purported risk factors remains unclear. We examined relations between controlling and rejecting parenting styles, parental modeling of anxious behaviors, child interpretive biases, and child anxiety in a mixed clinically anxious (n=27) and non-clinical (n=20) sample of Latino children and at least one of their parents. Families completed discussion-based tasks and questionnaires in a lab setting. Results indicated that child anxiety was: linked with parental control and child interpretative biases, associated with parental modeling of anxious behaviors at a trend level, and not associated with low parental acceptance. Findings that controlling parenting and child interpretive biases were associated with anxiety extend current theories of anxiety development to the Latino population. We speculate that strong family ties may buffer Latino children from detrimental effects of perceived low parental acceptance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling biases in datasets of historical mean air temperature over land.

PubMed

Wang, Kaicun

2014-04-10

Global mean surface air temperature (Ta) has been reported to have risen by 0.74°C over the last 100 years. However, the definition of mean Ta is still a subject of debate. The most defensible definition might be the integral of the continuous temperature measurements over a day (Td0). However, for technological and historical reasons, mean Ta over land have been taken to be the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature measurements (Td1). All existing principal global temperature analyses over land rely heavily on Td1. Here, I make a first quantitative assessment of the bias in the use of Td1 to estimate trends of mean Ta using hourly Ta observations at 5600 globally distributed weather stations from the 1970s to 2013. I find that the use of Td1 has a negligible impact on the global mean warming rate. However, the trend of Td1 has a substantial bias at regional and local scales, with a root mean square error of over 25% at 5° × 5° grids. Therefore, caution should be taken when using mean Ta datasets based on Td1 to examine high resolution details of warming trends.

Analysis of near-surface biases in ERA-Interim over the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Beljaars, Anton C. M.

2017-09-01

We quantify the biases in the diurnal cycle of temperature in ERA-Interim for both warm and cold season using hourly climate station data for four stations in Saskatchewan from 1979 to 2006. The warm season biases increase as opaque cloud cover decreases, and change substantially from April to October. The bias in mean temperature increases almost monotonically from small negative values in April to small positive values in the fall. Under clear skies, the bias in maximum temperature is of the order of -1°C in June and July, and -2°C in spring and fall; while the bias in minimum temperature increases almost monotonically from +1°C in spring to +2.5°C in October. The bias in the diurnal temperature range falls under clear skies from -2.5°C in spring to -5°C in fall. The cold season biases with surface snow have a different structure. The biases in maximum, mean and minimum temperature with a stable BL reach +1°C, +2.6°C and +3°C respectively in January under clear skies. The cold season bias in diurnal range increases from about -1.8°C in the fall to positive values in March. These diurnal biases in 2 m temperature and their seasonal trends are consistent with a high bias in both the diurnal and seasonal amplitude of the model ground heat flux, and a warm season daytime bias resulting from the model fixed leaf area index. Our results can be used as bias corrections in agricultural modeling that use these reanalysis data, and also as a framework for understanding model biases.

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, Don

2016-04-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, D. P.

2016-02-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

A Large-Scale Analysis of Impact Factor Biased Journal Self-Citations.

PubMed

Chorus, Caspar; Waltman, Ludo

2016-01-01

Based on three decades of citation data from across scientific fields of science, we study trends in impact factor biased self-citations of scholarly journals, using a purpose-built and easy to use citation based measure. Our measure is given by the ratio between i) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in the last two years, and ii) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in preceding years. A ratio higher than one suggests that a journal's impact factor is disproportionally affected (inflated) by self-citations. Using recently reported survey data, we show that there is a relation between high values of our proposed measure and coercive journal self-citation malpractices. We use our measure to perform a large-scale analysis of impact factor biased journal self-citations. Our main empirical result is, that the share of journals for which our measure has a (very) high value has remained stable between the 1980s and the early 2000s, but has since risen strongly in all fields of science. This time span corresponds well with the growing obsession with the impact factor as a journal evaluation measure over the last decade. Taken together, this suggests a trend of increasingly pervasive journal self-citation malpractices, with all due unwanted consequences such as inflated perceived importance of journals and biased journal rankings.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Does parental anxiety cause biases in the processing of child-relevant threat material?

PubMed

Cartwright-Hatton, Sam; Abeles, Paul; Dixon, Clare; Holliday, Christine; Hills, Becky

2014-06-01

Anxiety leads to biases in processing personally relevant information. This study set out to examine whether anxious parents also experience biases in processing child-relevant material. Ninety parents acted as a control condition, or received a social anxiety or child-related anxiety induction. They completed a task examining attentional biases in relation to child-threat words and social-threat words, and a task examining ability to categorize emotion in children's faces and voices. There was a trend indicating group differences in attentional bias towards social-threat words, and this appears to have been only in the social anxiety condition, but not the child anxiety or control conditions. For child-threat words, attentional bias was present in the child anxiety condition, but not the social anxiety or control conditions. In the emotion recognition task, there was no difference between the control and child anxiety conditions, but the social anxiety condition were more likely to erroneously label children's faces and voices as sad. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Anxious parents may have attentional biases towards threats in their children's environment. Anxious parents may over-attribute negative emotion to children. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

Analysis and Countermeasure Study on DC Bias of Main Transformer in a City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, PengChao; Wang, Hongtao; Song, Xinpu; Gu, Jun; Liu, yong; Wu, weili

2017-07-01

According to the December 2015 Guohua Beijing thermal power transformer DC magnetic bias phenomenon, the monitoring data of 24 hours of direct current is analyzed. We find that the maximum DC current is up to 25 and is about 30s for the trend cycle, on this basis, then, of the geomagnetic storm HVDC and subway operation causes comparison of the mechanism, and make a comprehensive analysis of the thermal power plant’s geographical location, surrounding environment and electrical contact etc.. The results show that the main reason for the DC bias of Guohua thermal power transformer is the operation of the subway, and the change of the DC bias current is periodic. Finally, of Guohua thermal power transformer DC magnetic bias control method is studied, the simulation results show that the method of using neutral point with small resistance or capacitance can effectively inhibit the main transformer neutral point current.

The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lin; Li, Zhanqing; Yang, Xin; Gong, Hainan; Li, Chao; Xiong, Anyuan

2016-04-01

Understanding the causes of long-term temperature trends is at the core of climate change studies. Any observed trend can result from natural variability or anthropogenic influences or both. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 on simulating the Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR) and explored the potential causes of the long-term trend in the DTR by examining the response of the DTR to natural forcing (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols) in the historical period of 1961-2005. For the climatology, the multimodel ensemble mean reproduced the geographical distribution and amplitude of the DTR over eastern China and India but underestimated the magnitudes of the DTR over the Tibetan Plateau and the high-latitude regions of the Asian continent. These negative biases in the DTR over frigid zones existed in most models. Seasonal biases in the DTR pattern from models were similar to the bias in the annual mean DTR pattern. Based on three selected state-of-the-art models, the observed decreasing trend in the DTR over Asia was reasonably reproduced in the all-forcing run. A comparison of separate forcing experiments revealed that anthropogenic forcing plays the dominant role in the declining trend in the DTR. Observations and model simulations showed that GHG forcing is mainly responsible for the negative trends in the DTR over Asia but that anthropogenic aerosol forcing was also behind the decreasing trend in the DTR over China and especially over eastern China.

Mixed Model Association with Family-Biased Case-Control Ascertainment.

PubMed

Hayeck, Tristan J; Loh, Po-Ru; Pollack, Samuela; Gusev, Alexander; Patterson, Nick; Zaitlen, Noah A; Price, Alkes L

2017-01-05

Mixed models have become the tool of choice for genetic association studies; however, standard mixed model methods may be poorly calibrated or underpowered under family sampling bias and/or case-control ascertainment. Previously, we introduced a liability threshold-based mixed model association statistic (LTMLM) to address case-control ascertainment in unrelated samples. Here, we consider family-biased case-control ascertainment, where case and control subjects are ascertained non-randomly with respect to family relatedness. Previous work has shown that this type of ascertainment can severely bias heritability estimates; we show here that it also impacts mixed model association statistics. We introduce a family-based association statistic (LT-Fam) that is robust to this problem. Similar to LTMLM, LT-Fam is computed from posterior mean liabilities (PML) under a liability threshold model; however, LT-Fam uses published narrow-sense heritability estimates to avoid the problem of biased heritability estimation, enabling correct calibration. In simulations with family-biased case-control ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated (average χ 2 = 1.00-1.02 for null SNPs), whereas the Armitage trend test (ATT), standard mixed model association (MLM), and case-control retrospective association test (CARAT) were mis-calibrated (e.g., average χ 2 = 0.50-1.22 for MLM, 0.89-2.65 for CARAT). LT-Fam also attained higher power than other methods in some settings. In 1,259 type 2 diabetes-affected case subjects and 5,765 control subjects from the CARe cohort, downsampled to induce family-biased ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated whereas ATT, MLM, and CARAT were again mis-calibrated. Our results highlight the importance of modeling family sampling bias in case-control datasets with related samples. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat

2018-06-01

Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.

Biased Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Donald Ross

This paper is concerned with the accusations made by such groups as the Association of Black Psychologists in their call for a moratorium on testing, that standardized tests are biased. A biased test measures one trait in one group of people but a different trait in a second group. Evidence about the amount of bias in tests is thin. Bias must be…

Information processing bias and pharmacotherapy outcome in older adults with generalized anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Steiner, Amanda R W; Petkus, Andrew J; Nguyen, Hoang; Wetherell, Julie Loebach

2013-08-01

Information processing bias was evaluated in a sample of 25 older adults with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) over the course of 12 weeks of escitalopram pharmacotherapy. Using the CANTAB Affective Go/No Go test, treatment response (as measured by the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, Penn State Worry Questionnaire, and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Severity Scale) was predicted from a bias score (i.e., difference score between response latencies for negative and positive words) using mixed-models regression. A more positive bias score across time predicted better response to treatment. Faster responses to positive words relative to negative words were associated with greater symptomatic improvement over time as reflected by scores on the GADSS. There was a trend toward significance for PSWQ scores and no significant effects related to HAMA outcomes. These preliminary findings offer further insights into the role of biased cognitive processing of emotional material in the manifestation of late-life anxiety symptoms. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Trending and accuracy of noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring in pediatric perioperative patients.

PubMed

Patino, Mario; Schultz, Lindsay; Hossain, Monir; Moeller, Jennifer; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Gunter, Joel; Kurth, C Dean

2014-10-01

Rainbow Pulse CO-Oximetry technology (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) provides continuous and noninvasive measurement of arterial hemoglobin concentration (SpHb). We assessed the trending and accuracy of SpHb by this innovative monitoring compared with Hb concentration obtained with conventional laboratory techniques (Hb) in children undergoing surgical procedures with potential for substantial blood loss. Hb concentrations were recorded from Pulse CO-Oximetry and a conventional hematology analyzer. Regression analysis and 4-quadrant plot were used to evaluate the trending for changes in SpHb and Hb measurements (ΔSpHb and ΔHb). Bias, precision, and limits of agreement of SpHb and of in vivo adjusted SpHb (SpHb - first bias to HB) compared with Hb were calculated. One hundred fifty-eight SpHb-Hb data pairs and 105 delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) from 46 patients aged 2 months to 17 years with Hb ranging from 16.7 to 7.9 g/dL were collected. To evaluate trending, the delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) were plotted, which revealed a positive correlation (ΔSpHb = 0.022 + 0.76ΔHb) with correlation coefficient r = 0.76, 95% CI [confidence interval] = 0.57-0.86. The bias and precision of SpHb to Hb and in vivo adjusted SpHb were 0.4 ± 1.3 g/dL and 0.1 ± 1.2 g/dL, respectively; the limits of agreement were -2.0 to 3.2 g/dL before in vivo adjustment and -2.4 to 2.2 g/dL after in vivo adjustment (P value = 0.04). The mean percent bias (from the reference Hb concentration) decreased from 4.1% ± 11.9% to 0.7% ± 11.3% (P value = 0.01). No drift in bias over time was observed during the study procedure. Of patient demographic and physiological factors tested for correlation with the SpHb, only perfusion index at sensor site showed a weak correlation. The accuracy of SpHb in children with normal Hb and mild anemia is similar to that previously reported in adults and is independent of patient demographic and physiological states except for a weak correlation with perfusion index

Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

PubMed

Hyslop, Nicole P; Trzepla, Krystyna; White, Warren H

2015-08-04

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).

Sympathetic bias.

PubMed

Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

2008-06-01

We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

PubMed

Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2016-01-01

Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A review of bias flow liners for acoustic damping in gas turbine combustors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahiri, C.; Bake, F.

2017-07-01

The optimized design of bias flow liner is a key element for the development of low emission combustion systems in modern gas turbines and aero-engines. The research of bias flow liners has a fairly long history concerning both the parameter dependencies as well as the methods to model the acoustic behaviour of bias flow liners under the variety of different bias and grazing flow conditions. In order to establish an overview over the state of the art, this paper provides a comprehensive review about the published research on bias flow liners and modelling approaches with an extensive study of the most relevant parameters determining the acoustic behaviour of these liners. The paper starts with a historical description of available investigations aiming on the characterization of the bias flow absorption principle. This chronological compendium is extended by the recent and ongoing developments in this field. In a next step the fundamental acoustic property of bias flow liner in terms of the wall impedance is introduced and the different derivations and formulations of this impedance yielding the different published model descriptions are explained and compared. Finally, a parametric study reveals the most relevant parameters for the acoustic damping behaviour of bias flow liners and how this is reflected by the various model representations. Although the general trend of the investigated acoustic behaviour is captured by the different models fairly well for a certain range of parameters, in the transition region between the resonance dominated and the purely bias flow related regime all models lack the correct damping prediction. This seems to be connected to the proper implementation of the reactance as a function of bias flow Mach number.

Global Fire Trends from Satellite ATSR Instrument Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arino, Olivier; Casadio, Stefano; Serpe, Danilo

2010-12-01

Global night-time fire counts for the years from 1995 to 2009 have been obtained by using the latest version of Along Track Scanning Radiometer TOA radiance products (level 1), and related trends have been estimated. Possible biases due to cloud coverage variations have been assumed to be negligible. The sampling number (acquisition frequency) has also been analysed and proved not to influence our results. Global night-time fire trends have been evaluated by inspecting the time series of hot spots aggregated a) at 2°x2° scale; b) at district/country/region/continent scales, and c) globally. The statistical significance of the estimated trend parameters has been verified by means of the Mann-Kendal test. Results indicate that no trends in the absolute number of spots can be identified at the global scale, that there has been no appreciable shift in the fire season during the last fourteen years, and that statistically significant positive and negative trends are only found when data are aggregated at smaller scales.

Halo assembly bias and the tidal anisotropy of the local halo environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paranjape, Aseem; Hahn, Oliver; Sheth, Ravi K.

2018-05-01

We study the role of the local tidal environment in determining the assembly bias of dark matter haloes. Previous results suggest that the anisotropy of a halo's environment (i.e. whether it lies in a filament or in a more isotropic region) can play a significant role in determining the eventual mass and age of the halo. We statistically isolate this effect, using correlations between the large-scale and small-scale environments of simulated haloes at z = 0 with masses between 1011.6 ≲ (m/h-1 M⊙) ≲ 1014.9. We probe the large-scale environment, using a novel halo-by-halo estimator of linear bias. For the small-scale environment, we identify a variable αR that captures the tidal anisotropy in a region of radius R = 4R200b around the halo and correlates strongly with halo bias at fixed mass. Segregating haloes by αR reveals two distinct populations. Haloes in highly isotropic local environments (αR ≲ 0.2) behave as expected from the simplest, spherically averaged analytical models of structure formation, showing a negative correlation between their concentration and large-scale bias at all masses. In contrast, haloes in anisotropic, filament-like environments (αR ≳ 0.5) tend to show a positive correlation between bias and concentration at any mass. Our multiscale analysis cleanly demonstrates how the overall assembly bias trend across halo mass emerges as an average over these different halo populations, and provides valuable insights towards building analytical models that correctly incorporate assembly bias. We also discuss potential implications for the nature and detectability of galaxy assembly bias.

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

Assessment of Vocal Adaptations for Noise Compensation in Marine Mammals

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

article was published online in the journal Biology Letters in July 2010. These results were presented at the Society of Marine Mammalogy conference in...Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq - Brazilian government agency that issues such permits) by Universidade Federal

Contributions to the mammalogy of Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pine, Ronald H.; Miller, Sterling D.; Schamberger, Mel L.

1979-01-01

Collections of mammals were made during more than three years of biological investigations in Chile sponsored by the Corporación Nacional Forestal under the aegis of the Peace Corps (Smithsonian Environmental Program). Genera and species hitherto unreported for that country were taken and many useful data concerning distributional patterns of other (mostly little-known) species were gathered. These collections have also proved valuable in better understanding Chilean mammals from a taxonomic point of view and contribute knowledge of the species' natural history. Specimens are to be deposited in the (United States) National Museum of Natural History (USNM) or are to be retained by the Corporación Nacional Forestal, Avda, Bulnes 285, Depto. 401, Santiago. Numbers provided below are field numbers. A final division of specimens between the two institutions has not yet been made. A number of specimens reported here were not taken by Peace Corps personnel but have been obtained by the National Museum of Natural History from other sources. Specimens in the Field Museum of Natural History (FMNH) were used in making comparisons. Some of Fulk's (GWF) specimens are at Texas Tech University. Other are at the Servicio Agricola y Ganadero in Santiago (as are specimens of some introduced species taken by Schamberger). Reise's (DF) are at the Universidad de Chile-Concepción and in his personal collection.

It's all relative: The role of object weight in toddlers' gravity bias.

PubMed

Hast, Michael

2018-02-01

Work over the past 20 years has demonstrated a gravity bias in toddlers; when an object is dropped into a curved tube, they will frequently search at a point immediately beneath the entry of the tube rather than in the object's actual location. The current study tested 2- to 3½-year-olds' (N = 88) gravity bias under consideration of object weight. They were tested with either a heavy or light ball, and they had information about either one of the balls only or both balls. Evaluating their first search behavior showed that participants generally displayed the same age trends as other studies had demonstrated, with older toddlers passing more advanced task levels by being able to locate objects in the correct location. Object weight appeared to have no particular impact on the direction of these trends. However, where weight was accessible as relative information, toddlers were younger at passing levels and older at failing levels, although significantly so only from around 3 years of age onward. When they failed levels, toddlers made significantly more gravity errors with the heavy ball when they had information about both balls and made more correct choices with the light ball. As a whole, the findings suggest that nonvisual object variables, such as weight, affect young children's search behaviors in the gravity task, but only if these variables are presented in relation to other objects. This relational information has the potential to enhance or diminish the gravity bias. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are attentional bias and memory bias for negative words causally related?

PubMed

Blaut, Agata; Paulewicz, Borysław; Szastok, Marta; Prochwicz, Katarzyna; Koster, Ernst

2013-09-01

In cognitive theories of depression, processing biases are assumed to be partly responsible for the onset and maintenance of mood disorders. Despite a wealth of studies examining the relation between depression and individual biases (at the level of attention, interpretation, and memory), little is known about relationships between different biases. The purpose of the present study was to assess if attentional bias is causally related to memory bias. 71 participants were randomly assigned to a control (n = 37) or attentional training group (n = 34). The attentional manipulation was followed by an explicit, intentional memory task during which novel neutral, negative, and positive words were presented. It was found that individuals with elevated depression score trained to orient away from negative words did not display a memory bias for negative words (adjectives) whereas similar individuals displayed this memory bias in the control condition. Generalization of the findings is limited because of the short study time frame and specific nature of the memory task. These results indicate that altering attentional bias can influence elaborative processing of emotional material and that this bias could be one of the causes of mood congruent memory in depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hindsight Bias.

PubMed

Roese, Neal J; Vohs, Kathleen D

2012-09-01

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias. © The Author(s) 2012.

Eye Movements while Reading Biased Homographs: Effects of Prior Encounter and Biasing Context on Reducing the Subordinate Bias Effect

PubMed Central

Leinenger, Mallorie; Rayner, Keith

2013-01-01

Readers experience processing difficulties when reading biased homographs preceded by subordinate-biasing contexts. Attempts to overcome this processing deficit have often failed to reduce the subordinate bias effect (SBE). In the present studies, we examined the processing of biased homographs preceded by single-sentence, subordinate-biasing contexts, and varied whether this preceding context contained a prior instance of the homograph or a control word/phrase. Having previously encountered the homograph earlier in the sentence reduced the SBE for the subsequent encounter, while simply instantiating the subordinate meaning produced processing difficulty. We compared these reductions in reading times to differences in processing time between dominant-biased repeated and non-repeated conditions in order to verify that the reductions observed in the subordinate cases did not simply reflect a general repetition benefit. Our results indicate that a strong, subordinate-biasing context can interact during lexical access to overcome the activation from meaning frequency and reduce the SBE during reading. PMID:24073328

Eliminating Bias

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Learn how to eliminate bias from monitoring systems by instituting appropriate installation, operation, and quality assurance procedures. Provides links to download An Operator's Guide to Eliminating Bias in CEM Systems.

MONTHLY AND ANNUAL BIAS IN WEEKLY (NADP/NTN) VERSUS DAILY (AIRMON) PRECIPITATION CHEMISTRY DATA IN THE EASTERN USA

EPA Science Inventory

Previous comparisons of the data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) against collocated event- and daily-sampled data suggest a substantial bias in the concentration of ammonium [NH4+] and concentrations of several base cations,...

Decadal trends in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll: A new assessment integrating multiple satellites, in situ data, and models.

PubMed

Gregg, Watson W; Rousseaux, Cécile S

2014-09-01

Quantifying change in ocean biology using satellites is a major scientific objective. We document trends globally for the period 1998-2012 by integrating three diverse methodologies: ocean color data from multiple satellites, bias correction methods based on in situ data, and data assimilation to provide a consistent and complete global representation free of sampling biases. The results indicated no significant trend in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll over the 15 year data record. These results were consistent with previous findings that were based on the first 6 years and first 10 years of the SeaWiFS mission. However, all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (north of 10° latitude), as well as the Equatorial Indian basin, exhibited significant declines in chlorophyll. Trend maps showed the local trends and their change in percent per year. These trend maps were compared with several other previous efforts using only a single sensor (SeaWiFS) and more limited time series, showing remarkable consistency. These results suggested the present effort provides a path forward to quantifying global ocean trends using multiple satellite missions, which is essential if we are to understand the state, variability, and possible changes in the global oceans over longer time scales.

Stereotype threat engenders neural attentional bias toward negative feedback to undermine performance.

PubMed

Forbes, Chad E; Leitner, Jordan B

2014-10-01

Stereotype threat, a situational pressure individuals experience when they fear confirming a negative group stereotype, engenders a cascade of physiological stress responses, negative appraisals, and performance monitoring processes that tax working memory resources necessary for optimal performance. Less is known, however, about how stereotype threat biases attentional processing in response to performance feedback, and how such attentional biases may undermine performance. Women received feedback on math problems in stereotype threatening compared to stereotype-neutral contexts while continuous EEG activity was recorded. Findings revealed that stereotype threatened women elicited larger midline P100 ERPs, increased phase locking between anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (two regions integral for attentional processes), and increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback compared to positive feedback and women in stereotype-neutral contexts. Increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback predicted underperformance on the math task among stereotype threatened women only. Women in stereotype-neutral contexts exhibited the opposite trend. Findings suggest that in stereotype threatening contexts, neural networks integral for attention and working memory are biased toward negative, stereotype confirming feedback at very early speeds of information processing. This bias, in turn, plays a role in undermining performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards Identifying and Reducing the Bias of Disease Information Extracted from Search Engine Data

PubMed Central

Huang, Da-Cang; Wang, Jin-Feng; Huang, Ji-Xia; Sui, Daniel Z.; Zhang, Hong-Yan; Hu, Mao-Gui; Xu, Cheng-Dong

2016-01-01

The estimation of disease prevalence in online search engine data (e.g., Google Flu Trends (GFT)) has received a considerable amount of scholarly and public attention in recent years. While the utility of search engine data for disease surveillance has been demonstrated, the scientific community still seeks ways to identify and reduce biases that are embedded in search engine data. The primary goal of this study is to explore new ways of improving the accuracy of disease prevalence estimations by combining traditional disease data with search engine data. A novel method, Biased Sentinel Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced to reduce search engine data bias from a geographical perspective. To monitor search trends on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province, China, we tested our approach by selecting 11 keywords from the Baidu index platform, a Chinese big data analyst similar to GFT. The correlation between the number of real cases and the composite index was 0.8. After decomposing the composite index at the city level, we found that only 10 cities presented a correlation of close to 0.8 or higher. These cities were found to be more stable with respect to search volume, and they were selected as sample cities in order to estimate the search volume of the entire province. After the estimation, the correlation improved from 0.8 to 0.864. After fitting the revised search volume with historical cases, the mean absolute error was 11.19% lower than it was when the original search volume and historical cases were combined. To our knowledge, this is the first study to reduce search engine data bias levels through the use of rigorous spatial sampling strategies. PMID:27271698

Towards Identifying and Reducing the Bias of Disease Information Extracted from Search Engine Data.

PubMed

Huang, Da-Cang; Wang, Jin-Feng; Huang, Ji-Xia; Sui, Daniel Z; Zhang, Hong-Yan; Hu, Mao-Gui; Xu, Cheng-Dong

2016-06-01

The estimation of disease prevalence in online search engine data (e.g., Google Flu Trends (GFT)) has received a considerable amount of scholarly and public attention in recent years. While the utility of search engine data for disease surveillance has been demonstrated, the scientific community still seeks ways to identify and reduce biases that are embedded in search engine data. The primary goal of this study is to explore new ways of improving the accuracy of disease prevalence estimations by combining traditional disease data with search engine data. A novel method, Biased Sentinel Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced to reduce search engine data bias from a geographical perspective. To monitor search trends on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province, China, we tested our approach by selecting 11 keywords from the Baidu index platform, a Chinese big data analyst similar to GFT. The correlation between the number of real cases and the composite index was 0.8. After decomposing the composite index at the city level, we found that only 10 cities presented a correlation of close to 0.8 or higher. These cities were found to be more stable with respect to search volume, and they were selected as sample cities in order to estimate the search volume of the entire province. After the estimation, the correlation improved from 0.8 to 0.864. After fitting the revised search volume with historical cases, the mean absolute error was 11.19% lower than it was when the original search volume and historical cases were combined. To our knowledge, this is the first study to reduce search engine data bias levels through the use of rigorous spatial sampling strategies.

Expectancy bias mediates the link between social anxiety and memory bias for social evaluation

PubMed Central

Caouette, Justin D.; Ruiz, Sarah K.; Lee, Clinton C.; Anbari, Zainab; Schriber, Roberta A.; Guyer, Amanda E.

2014-01-01

Social anxiety (SA) involves a multitude of cognitive symptoms related to fear of evaluation, including expectancy and memory biases. We examined whether memory biases are influenced by expectancy biases for social feedback in SA. We hypothesized that, faced with a socially evaluative event, people with higher SA would show a negative expectancy bias for future feedback. Furthermore, we predicted that memory bias for feedback in SA would be mediated by expectancy bias. Ninety-four undergraduate students (55 women, mean age = 19.76 years) underwent a two-visit task that measured expectations about (Visit 1) and memory of (Visit 2) feedback from unknown peers. Results showed that higher levels of SA were associated with negative expectancy bias. An indirect relationship was found between SA and memory bias that was mediated by expectancy bias. The results suggest that expectancy biases are in the causal path from SA to negative memory biases for social evaluation. PMID:25252925

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2018-03-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as `assembly bias', is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. This results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

Acoustic Absorption Characteristics of an Orifice With a Mean Bias Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahuja, K. K.; Gaeta, R. J., Jr.; DAgostino, M.; Jones, Mike (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The objective of the study reported here was to acquire acoustic and flow data for numerical validation of impedance models that simulate bias flow through perforates. The impedance model is being developed by researchers at High Technology Corporation. This report documents normal incidence impedance measurements a singular circular orifice with mean flow passing through it. All measurements are made within a 1.12 inch (28.5 mm) diameter impedance tube. The mean flow is introduced upstream of the orifice (with the flow and incident sound wave travelling in the same direction) with an anechoic termination downstream of the orifice. Velocity profiles are obtained upstream of the orifice to characterize the inflow boundary conditions. Velocity in the center of the orifice is also obtained. All velocity measurements are made with a hot wire anemometer and subsequent checked with mass flow measurements made concurrently. All impedance measurements are made using the Two-Microphone Method. Although we have left the analysis of the data to the developers of the impedance models that simulate bias flow through perforate, our initial examination indicates that our results follow the trends consistent with published theory on impedance of perforates with a steady bias flow.

Biased Saccadic Responses to Emotional Stimuli in Anxiety: An Antisaccade Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Nigel T. M.; Clarke, Patrick J. F.; Watson, Tamara L.; MacLeod, Colin; Guastella, Adam J.

2014-01-01

Research suggests that anxiety is maintained by an attentional bias to threat, and a growing base of evidence suggests that anxiety may additionally be associated with the deficient attentional processing of positive stimuli. The present study sought to examine whether such anxiety-linked attentional biases were associated with either stimulus driven or attentional control mechanisms of attentional selectivity. High and low trait anxious participants completed an emotional variant of an antisaccade task, in which they were required to prosaccade towards, or antisaccade away from a positive, neutral or threat stimulus, while eye movements were recorded. While low anxious participants were found to be slower to saccade in response to positive stimuli, irrespectively of whether a pro- or antisaccade was required, such a bias was absent in high anxious individuals. Analysis of erroneous antisaccades further revealed at trend level, that anxiety was associated with reduced peak velocity in response to threat. The findings suggest that anxiety is associated with the aberrant processing of positive stimuli, and greater compensatory efforts in the inhibition of threat. The findings further highlight the relevance of considering saccade peak velocity in the assessment of anxiety-linked attentional processing. PMID:24523861

Biased saccadic responses to emotional stimuli in anxiety: an antisaccade study.

PubMed

Chen, Nigel T M; Clarke, Patrick J F; Watson, Tamara L; Macleod, Colin; Guastella, Adam J

2014-01-01

Research suggests that anxiety is maintained by an attentional bias to threat, and a growing base of evidence suggests that anxiety may additionally be associated with the deficient attentional processing of positive stimuli. The present study sought to examine whether such anxiety-linked attentional biases were associated with either stimulus driven or attentional control mechanisms of attentional selectivity. High and low trait anxious participants completed an emotional variant of an antisaccade task, in which they were required to prosaccade towards, or antisaccade away from a positive, neutral or threat stimulus, while eye movements were recorded. While low anxious participants were found to be slower to saccade in response to positive stimuli, irrespectively of whether a pro- or antisaccade was required, such a bias was absent in high anxious individuals. Analysis of erroneous antisaccades further revealed at trend level, that anxiety was associated with reduced peak velocity in response to threat. The findings suggest that anxiety is associated with the aberrant processing of positive stimuli, and greater compensatory efforts in the inhibition of threat. The findings further highlight the relevance of considering saccade peak velocity in the assessment of anxiety-linked attentional processing.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator.

PubMed

McRae, Louise; Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator

PubMed Central

Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly. PMID:28045977

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, R. E.; Nishihama, Masahiro

2009-01-01

Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Randomized controlled trial of attention bias modification in a racially diverse, socially anxious, alcohol dependent sample.

PubMed

Clerkin, Elise M; Magee, Joshua C; Wells, Tony T; Beard, Courtney; Barnett, Nancy P

2016-12-01

Attention biases may be an important treatment target for both alcohol dependence and social anxiety. This is the first ABM trial to investigate two (vs. one) targets of attention bias within a sample with co-occurring symptoms of social anxiety and alcohol dependence. Additionally, we used trial-level bias scores (TL-BS) to capture the phenomena of attention bias in a more ecologically valid, dynamic way compared to traditional attention bias scores. Adult participants (N = 86; 41% Female; 52% African American; 40% White) with elevated social anxiety symptoms and alcohol dependence were randomly assigned to an 8-session training condition in this 2 (Social Anxiety ABM vs. Social Anxiety Control) by 2 (Alcohol ABM vs. Alcohol Control) design. Symptoms of social anxiety, alcohol dependence, and attention bias were assessed across time. Multilevel models estimated the trajectories for each measure within individuals, and tested whether these trajectories differed according to the randomized training conditions. Across time, there were significant or trending decreases in all attention TL-BS parameters (but not traditional attention bias scores) and most symptom measures. However, there were not significant differences in the trajectories of change between any ABM and control conditions for any symptom measures. These findings add to previous evidence questioning the robustness of ABM and point to the need to extend the effects of ABM to samples that are racially diverse and/or have co-occurring psychopathology. The results also illustrate the potential importance of calculating trial-level attention bias scores rather than only including traditional bias scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Randomized Controlled Trial of Attention Bias Modification in a Racially Diverse, Socially Anxious, Alcohol Dependent Sample

PubMed Central

Clerkin, Elise M.; Magee, Joshua C.; Wells, Tony T.; Beard, Courtney; Barnett, Nancy P.

2016-01-01

Objective Attention biases may be an important treatment target for both alcohol dependence and social anxiety. This is the first ABM trial to investigate two (vs. one) targets of attention bias within a sample with co-occurring symptoms of social anxiety and alcohol dependence. Additionally, we used trial-level bias scores (TL-BS) to capture the phenomena of attention bias in a more ecologically valid, dynamic way compared to traditional attention bias scores. Method Adult participants (N=86; 41% Female; 52% African American; 40% White) with elevated social anxiety symptoms and alcohol dependence were randomly assigned to an 8-session training condition in this 2 (Social Anxiety ABM vs. Social Anxiety Control) by 2 (Alcohol ABM vs. Alcohol Control) design. Symptoms of social anxiety, alcohol dependence, and attention bias were assessed across time. Results Multilevel models estimated the trajectories for each measure within individuals, and tested whether these trajectories differed according to the randomized training conditions. Across time, there were significant or trending decreases in all attention TL-BS parameters (but not traditional attention bias scores) and most symptom measures. However, there were not significant differences in the trajectories of change between any ABM and control conditions for any symptom measures. Conclusions These findings add to previous evidence questioning the robustness of ABM and point to the need to extend the effects of ABM to samples that are racially diverse and/or have co-occurring psychopathology. The results also illustrate the potential importance of calculating trial-level attention bias scores rather than only including traditional bias scores. PMID:27591918

The Impact of Assembly Bias on the Galaxy Content of Dark Matter Halos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zehavi, Idit; Contreras, Sergio; Padilla, Nelson; Smith, Nicholas J.; Baugh, Carlton M.; Norberg, Peder

2018-01-01

We study the dependence of the galaxy content of dark matter halos on large-scale environment and halo formation time using semi-analytic galaxy models applied to the Millennium simulation. We analyze subsamples of halos at the extremes of these distributions and measure the occupation functions for the galaxies they host. We find distinct differences among these occupation functions. The main effect with environment is that central galaxies (and in one model, also the satellites) in denser regions start populating lower-mass halos. A similar, but significantly stronger, trend exists with halo age, where early-forming halos are more likely to host central galaxies at lower halo mass. We discuss the origin of these trends and the connection to the stellar mass–halo mass relation. We find that, at fixed halo mass, older halos and to some extent also halos in dense environments tend to host more massive galaxies. Additionally, we see a reverse trend for the occupation of satellite galaxies where early-forming halos have fewer satellites, likely due to having more time for them to merge with the central galaxy. We describe these occupancy variations in terms of the changes in the occupation function parameters, which can aid in constructing realistic mock galaxy samples. Finally, we study the corresponding galaxy auto- and cross-correlation functions of the different samples and elucidate the impact of assembly bias on galaxy clustering. Our results can inform theoretical modeling of galaxy assembly bias and attempts to detect it in the real universe.

Queries for Bias Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Diana F.

1992-01-01

Selecting a good bias prior to concept learning can be difficult. Therefore, dynamic bias adjustment is becoming increasingly popular. Current dynamic bias adjustment systems, however, are limited in their ability to identify erroneous assumptions about the relationship between the bias and the target concept. Without proper diagnosis, it is difficult to identify and then remedy faulty assumptions. We have developed an approach that makes these assumptions explicit, actively tests them with queries to an oracle, and adjusts the bias based on the test results.

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

1984-01-01

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

DOE PAGES

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-12-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalomore » properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.« less

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalomore » properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.« less

Memory effect versus exchange bias for maghemite nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, K.; Krenn, H.; Szabó, D. V.

2015-11-01

We studied the temperature dependence of memory and exchange bias effects and their dependence on each other in maghemite (γ-Fe2O3) nanoparticles by using magnetization studies. Memory effect in zero field cooled process in nanoparticles is a fingerprint of spin-glass behavior which can be due to i) surface disordered spins (surface spin-glass) and/or ii) randomly frozen and interacting nanoparticles core spins (super spin-glass). Temperature region (25-70 K) for measurements has been chosen just below the average blocking temperature (TB=75 K) of the nanoparticles. Memory effect (ME) shows a non-monotonous behavior with temperature. It shows a decreasing trend with decreasing temperature and nearly vanishes below 30 K. However it also decreased again near the blocking temperature of the nanoparticles e.g., 70 K. Exchange bias (EB) in these nanoparticles arises due to core/shell interface interactions. The EB increases sharply below 30 K due to increase in core/shell interactions, while ME starts vanishing below 30 K. We conclude that the core/shell interface interactions or EB have not enhanced the ME but may reduce it in these nanoparticles.

Sources and implications of bias and uncertainty in a century of US wildfire activity data

Treesearch

Karen C. Short

2015-01-01

Analyses to identify and relate trends in wildfire activity to factors such as climate, population, land use or land cover and wildland fire policy are increasingly popular in the United States. There is a wealth of US wildfire activity data available for such analyses, but users must be aware of inherent reporting biases, inconsistencies and uncertainty in the data in...

Interpretation biases in paranoia.

PubMed

Savulich, George; Freeman, Daniel; Shergill, Sukhi; Yiend, Jenny

2015-01-01

Information in the environment is frequently ambiguous in meaning. Emotional ambiguity, such as the stare of a stranger, or the scream of a child, encompasses possible good or bad emotional consequences. Those with elevated vulnerability to affective disorders tend to interpret such material more negatively than those without, a phenomenon known as "negative interpretation bias." In this study we examined the relationship between vulnerability to psychosis, measured by trait paranoia, and interpretation bias. One set of material permitted broadly positive/negative (valenced) interpretations, while another allowed more or less paranoid interpretations, allowing us to also investigate the content specificity of interpretation biases associated with paranoia. Regression analyses (n=70) revealed that trait paranoia, trait anxiety, and cognitive inflexibility predicted paranoid interpretation bias, whereas trait anxiety and cognitive inflexibility predicted negative interpretation bias. In a group comparison those with high levels of trait paranoia were negatively biased in their interpretations of ambiguous information relative to those with low trait paranoia, and this effect was most pronounced for material directly related to paranoid concerns. Together these data suggest that a negative interpretation bias occurs in those with elevated vulnerability to paranoia, and that this bias may be strongest for material matching paranoid beliefs. We conclude that content-specific biases may be important in the cause and maintenance of paranoid symptoms. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Beyond attentional bias: a perceptual bias in a dot-probe task.

PubMed

Bocanegra, Bruno R; Huijding, Jorg; Zeelenberg, René

2012-12-01

Previous dot-probe studies indicate that threat-related face cues induce a bias in spatial attention. Independently of spatial attention, a recent psychophysical study suggests that a bilateral fearful face cue improves low spatial-frequency perception (LSF) and impairs high spatial-frequency perception (HSF). Here, we combine these separate lines of research within a single dot-probe paradigm. We found that a bilateral fearful face cue, compared with a bilateral neutral face cue, speeded up responses to LSF targets and slowed down responses to HSF targets. This finding is important, as it shows that emotional cues in dot-probe tasks not only bias where information is preferentially processed (i.e., an attentional bias in spatial location), but also bias what type of information is preferentially processed (i.e., a perceptual bias in spatial frequency). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Avoiding Unintended Bias

PubMed Central

VAN RYN, MICHELLE

2017-01-01

Research shows that unintentional bias on the part of physicians can influence the way they treat patients from certain racial and ethnic groups. Most physicians are unaware that they hold such biases, which can unknowingly contribute to inequalities in health care delivery. This article explains why a person’s thoughts and behaviors may not align, and provides strategies for preventing implicit biases from interfering with patient care. PMID:27089675

Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

2012-01-01

This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

Expectancy biases in fear and anxiety and their link to biases in attention.

PubMed

Aue, Tatjana; Okon-Singer, Hadas

2015-12-01

Healthy individuals often exhibit prioritized processing of aversive information, as manifested in enhanced orientation of attention to threatening stimuli compared with neutral items. In contrast to this adaptive behavior, anxious, fearful, and phobic individuals show exaggerated attention biases to threat. In addition, they overestimate the likelihood of encountering their feared stimulus and the severity of the consequences; both are examples of expectancy biases. The co-occurrence of attention and expectancy biases in fear and anxiety raises the question about causal influences. Herein, we summarize findings related to expectancy biases in fear and anxiety, and their association with attention biases. We suggest that evidence calls for more comprehensive research strategies in the investigation of mutual influences between expectancy and attention biases, as well as their combined effects on fear and anxiety. Moreover, both types of bias need to be related to other types of distorted information processing commonly observed in fear and anxiety (e.g., memory and interpretation biases). Finally, we propose new research directions that may be worth considering in developing more effective treatments for anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-02-01

This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Interpreting the Latitudinal Structure of Differences Between Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, B. D.; Mears, C. A.; Gleckler, P. J.; Solomon, S.; Wigley, T.; Arblaster, J.; Cai, W.; Gillett, N. P.; Ivanova, D. P.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J.; Meehl, G. A.; Stott, P.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P.; Wehner, M. F.; Zou, C.

2010-12-01

We perform the most comprehensive comparison to date of simulated and observed temperature trends. Comparisons are made for different latitude bands, timescales, and temperature variables, using information from a multi-model archive and a variety of observational datasets. Our focus is on temperature changes in the lower troposphere (TLT), the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT), and at the sea surface (SST). For SST, TLT, and TMT, trend comparisons over the satellite era (1979 to 2009) always yield closest agreement in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There are pronounced discrepancies in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere: in both regions, the multi-model average warming is consistently larger than observed. At high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the observed tropospheric warming exceeds multi-model average trends. The similarity in the latitudinal structure of this discrepancy pattern across different temperature variables and observational data sets suggests that these trend differences are real, and are not due to residual inhomogeneities in the observations. The interpretation of these results is hampered by the fact that the CMIP-3 multi-model archive analyzed here convolves errors in key external forcings with errors in the model response to forcing. Under a "forcing error" interpretation, model-average temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are biased warm because many models neglect (and/or inaccurately specify) changes in stratospheric ozone and the indirect effects of aerosols. An alternative "response error" explanation for the model trend errors is that there are fundamental problems with model clouds and ocean heat uptake over the Southern Ocean. When SST changes are compared over the longer period 1950 to 2009, there is close agreement between simulated and observed trends poleward of 50°S. This result is difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that the trend discrepancies over 1979 to 2009 are primarily

Flat-roof phenomenon of dynamic equilibrium phase in the negative bias temperature instability effect on a power MOSFET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue; Zhuo, Qing-Qing; Liu, Hong-Xia; Ma, Xiao-Hua; Hao, Yue

2014-05-01

The effect of the static negative bias temperature (NBT) stress on a p-channel power metal—oxide—semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) is investigated by experiment and simulation. The time evolution of the negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) degradation has the trend predicted by the reaction—diffusion (R—D) model but with an exaggerated time scale. The phenomena of the flat-roof section are observed under various stress conditions, which can be considered as the dynamic equilibrium phase in the R—D process. Based on the simulated results, the variation of the flat-roof section with the stress condition can be explained.

Cognitive Biases in Children and Adolescents With Chronic Pain: A Review of Findings and a Call for Developmental Research.

PubMed

Lau, Jennifer Y F; Heathcote, Lauren C; Beale, Sarah; Gray, Suzy; Jacobs, Konrad; Wilkinson, Nick; Crombez, Geert

2018-06-01

Cognitive biases that emphasize bodily harm, injury, and illness could play a role in the maintenance of chronic pain by facilitating fear and avoidance. Whereas extensive research has established attention, interpretation, and memory biases in adults with chronic pain, far less is known about these same biases in children and adolescents with pain. Studying cognitive biases in attention, interpretation, and memory in relation to pain occurring in youth is important because youth is a time when pain can first become chronic, and when relationships between cognitive biases and pain outcomes emerge and stabilize. Thus, youth potentially offers a time window for the prevention of chronic pain problems. In this article, we summarize the growing corpus of data that have measured cognitive biases in relation to pediatric pain. We conclude that although biases in attention, interpretation, and memory characterize children and adolescents with varying pain experiences, questions regarding the direction, magnitude, nature, and role of these biases remain. We call for independent extension of cognitive bias research in children and adolescents, using well powered longitudinal studies with wide age ranges and psychometrically sound experimental measures to clarify these findings and any developmental trends in the links between cognitive biases and pain outcomes. This article provides a rationale for the theoretical and practical importance of studying the role of cognitive biases in children and adolescents with chronic pain, which has to date, been relatively understudied. Existing findings are reviewed critically, and recommendations for future research are offered. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A sequential sampling account of response bias and speed-accuracy tradeoffs in a conflict detection task.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Humphreys, Michael; Neal, Andrew

2014-03-01

Signal Detection Theory (SDT; Green & Swets, 1966) is a popular tool for understanding decision making. However, it does not account for the time taken to make a decision, nor why response bias might change over time. Sequential sampling models provide a way of accounting for speed-accuracy trade-offs and response bias shifts. In this study, we test the validity of a sequential sampling model of conflict detection in a simulated air traffic control task by assessing whether two of its key parameters respond to experimental manipulations in a theoretically consistent way. Through experimental instructions, we manipulated participants' response bias and the relative speed or accuracy of their responses. The sequential sampling model was able to replicate the trends in the conflict responses as well as response time across all conditions. Consistent with our predictions, manipulating response bias was associated primarily with changes in the model's Criterion parameter, whereas manipulating speed-accuracy instructions was associated with changes in the Threshold parameter. The success of the model in replicating the human data suggests we can use the parameters of the model to gain an insight into the underlying response bias and speed-accuracy preferences common to dynamic decision-making tasks. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-01-01

Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas, 1975-89 water years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schertz, T.L.; Wells, F.C.; Ohe, D.J.

1994-01-01

The probable source of trend patterns in nutrients and measures of oxygen in the Trinity River Basin was changes in the wastewater treatment facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. A pattern of increased concentrations of inorganic constituents in the upper Colorado River Basin resulted from emergency releases of water from the Natural Darn Lake, a salinity control structure. Trend patterns in inorganic constituents in the Rio Grande Basin were a result of increasing concentrations in the Pecos River and, to a lesser extent, the Rio Grande above the Amistad Reservoir, combined with the effects of reservoir regulation. A pattern of increasing concentrations of organic plus ammonia nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen was detected for the 1975-86 water years for stations with low concentrations (generally less than 5 milligrams per liter) of these nitrogen species. The trends were no longer evident when the period of trend analysis was extended to the 1989 water year. A positive bias in the data caused by the addition of mercuric chloride tablets to preserve nutrient samples during 1980-86 was the probable source of this trend pattern. A pattern of increasing concentrations in dissolved sulfate in the eastern part of the State was a result of a positive bias in the analytical results of a turbidimetric method of sulfate analysis. The source of a statewide pattern of increased pH in streams could not be identified.

Explication of Interspousal Criticality Bias

PubMed Central

Peterson, Kristina M.; Smith, David A.; Windle, Chaunce R.

2009-01-01

Although bias towards perceiving spousal criticism is related to dysphoria and marital discord (Smith & Peterson, 2008), the bias construct has received insufficient elaboration. We explicated the criticality bias construct by exploring its correlates and incremental validity relative to perceived criticism, marital attributions, and negative affect. 118 couples completed self-report measures and undertook a videotaped discussion task. Signal detection analyses of both spouses’ and outside observers’ ratings of discussions produced bias indices. Criticality bias evidenced a pattern of convergent and discriminant validity mirroring perceived criticism’s (Renshaw, 2008). Bias also provided incremental validity beyond perceived criticism, marital attributions, and negative affect to the prediction of behavior. Bias may be a dysfunctional way to view marital events and a stress generation process. PMID:19286167

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

2007-01-01

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

Bias to negative emotions: a depression state-dependent marker in adolescent major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Maalouf, Fadi T; Clark, Luke; Tavitian, Lucy; Sahakian, Barbara J; Brent, David; Phillips, Mary L

2012-06-30

The aim of the current research was to examine for the first time the extent to which bias to negative emotions in an inhibitory control paradigm is a state or trait marker in major depressive disorder (MDD) in adolescents. We administered the affective go/no go task which measures the ability to switch attention to or away from positive or negative emotional stimuli to 40 adolescents with MDD (20 in acute episode (MDDa) and 20 in remission (MDDr)) and 17 healthy controls (HC). MDDa were significantly faster on the shift to negative target blocks as compared to shift to positive target blocks while HC and MDDr displayed the opposite pattern as measured by an "emotional bias index" (EBI=latency (shift to negative targets)-latency (shift to positive targets)). There was also a trend for an effect of group on commission errors, suggesting more impulsive responding by MDDa than both MDDr and HC independently of stimulus valence throughout the task. Negative bias was not associated with depression severity or medication status. In conclusion, bias to negative emotional stimuli appears to be present in the acute stage of MDD and absent in remission suggesting that it is a depression state-specific marker of MDD in adolescents. Latency emerges as a better proxy of negative bias than commission errors and accuracy on this inhibitory control task in adolescents with MDD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Publication Bias in Kienbock's Disease: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Squitieri, Lee; Petruska, Elizabeth; Chung, Kevin C

2015-01-01

Kienbock's studies compared to other surgical disorders. However, the increasing positive outcome rate for published Kienbock's studies over time may suggest a trend of increasing publication bias among journals toward Kienbock's studies. PMID:20193856

Bias and design in software specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straub, Pablo A.; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

1990-01-01

Implementation bias in a specification is an arbitrary constraint in the solution space. Presented here is a model of bias in software specifications. Bias is defined in terms of the specification process and a classification of the attributes of the software product. Our definition of bias provides insight into both the origin and the consequences of bias. It also shows that bias is relative and essentially unavoidable. Finally, we describe current work on defining a measure of bias, formalizing our model, and relating bias to software defects.

Impact of a priori information on IASI ozone retrievals and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barret, B.; Peiro, H.; Emili, E.; Le Flocgmoën, E.

2017-12-01

The IASI sensor documents atmospheric water vapor, temperature and composition since 2007. The Software for a Fast Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID) has been developped to retrieve O3 and CO profiles from IASI in near-real time on a global scale. Information content analyses have shown that IASI enables the quantification of O3 independently in the troposphere, the UTLS and the stratosphere. Validation studies have demonstrated that the daily to seasonal variability of tropospheric and UTLS O3 was well captured by IASI especially in the tropics. IASI-SOFRID retrievals have also been used to document the tropospheric composition during the Asian monsoon and participated to determine the O3 evolution during the 2008-2016 period in the framework of the TOAR project. Nevertheless, IASI-SOFRID O3 is biased high in the UTLS and in the tropical troposphere and the 8 years O3 trends from the different IASI products are significantly different from the O3 trends from UV-Vis satellite sensors (e.g. OMI)..SOFRID is based on the Optimal Estimation Method that requires a priori information to complete the information provided by the measured thermal infrared radiances. In SOFRID-O3 v1.5 used in TOAR the a priori consists of a single O3 profile and associated covariance matrix based on global O3 radiosoundings. Such a global a priori is characterized by a very large variabilty and does not represent our best kowledge of the O3 profile at a given time and location. Furthermore it is biased towards the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. We have therefore implemented the possibility to use dynamical a priori data in SOFRID and performed experiments using O3 climatological data and MLS O3 analyses. We will present O3 distributions and comparisons with O3 radiosoundings from the different SOFRID-O3 retrievals. We will in particular assess the impact of the use of different a priori data upon the O3 biases and trends during the IASI period.

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes

PubMed Central

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time. PMID:27713925

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

PubMed

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-10-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

Spin relaxation measurements of electrostatic bias in intermolecular exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Ching-Ling; Bryant, Robert G.

2006-04-01

We utilize the paramagnetic contribution to proton spin-lattice relaxation rate constants induced by freely diffusing charged paramagnetic centers to investigate the effect of charge on the intermolecular exploration of a protein by the small molecule. The proton NMR spectrum provided 255 resolved resonances that report how the explorer molecule local concentration varies with position on the surface. The measurements integrate over local dielectric constant variations, and, in principle, provide an experimental characterization of the surface free energy sampling biases introduced by the charge distribution on the protein. The experimental results for ribonuclease A obtained using positive, neutral, and negatively charged small nitroxide radicals are qualitatively similar to those expected from electrostatic calculations. However, while systematic electrostatic trends are apparent, the three different combinations of the data sets do not yield internally consistent values for the electrostatic contribution to the intermolecular free energy. We attribute this failure to the weakness of the electrostatic sampling bias for charged nitroxides in water and local variations in effective translational diffusion constant at the water-protein interface, which enters the nuclear spin relaxation equations for the nitroxide-proton dipolar coupling.

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

2016-03-01

Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi)/(tj-ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

The error and bias of supplementing a short, arid climate, rainfall record with regional vs. global frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endreny, Theodore A.; Pashiardis, Stelios

2007-02-01

SummaryRobust and accurate estimates of rainfall frequencies are difficult to make with short, and arid-climate, rainfall records, however new regional and global methods were used to supplement such a constrained 15-34 yr record in Cyprus. The impact of supplementing rainfall frequency analysis with the regional and global approaches was measured with relative bias and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Analysis considered 42 stations with 8 time intervals (5-360 min) in four regions delineated by proximity to sea and elevation. Regional statistical algorithms found the sites passed discordancy tests of coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis, while heterogeneity tests revealed the regions were homogeneous to mildly heterogeneous. Rainfall depths were simulated in the regional analysis method 500 times, and then goodness of fit tests identified the best candidate distribution as the general extreme value (GEV) Type II. In the regional analysis, the method of L-moments was used to estimate location, shape, and scale parameters. In the global based analysis, the distribution was a priori prescribed as GEV Type II, a shape parameter was a priori set to 0.15, and a time interval term was constructed to use one set of parameters for all time intervals. Relative RMSE values were approximately equal at 10% for the regional and global method when regions were compared, but when time intervals were compared the global method RMSE had a parabolic-shaped time interval trend. Relative bias values were also approximately equal for both methods when regions were compared, but again a parabolic-shaped time interval trend was found for the global method. The global method relative RMSE and bias trended with time interval, which may be caused by fitting a single scale value for all time intervals.

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the

Biases in the production and reception of collective knowledge: the case of hindsight bias in Wikipedia.

PubMed

Oeberst, Aileen; von der Beck, Ina; D Back, Mitja; Cress, Ulrike; Nestler, Steffen

2017-04-17

The Web 2.0 enabled collaboration at an unprecedented level. In one of the flagships of mass collaboration-Wikipedia-a large number of authors socially negotiate the world's largest compendium of knowledge. Several guidelines in Wikipedia restrict contributions to verifiable information from reliable sources to ensure recognized knowledge. Much psychological research demonstrates, however, that individual information processing is biased. This poses the question whether individual biases translate to Wikipedia articles or whether they are prevented by its guidelines. The present research makes use of hindsight bias to examine this question. To this end, we analyzed foresight and hindsight versions of Wikipedia articles regarding a broad variety of events (Study 1). We found the majority of articles not to contain traces of hindsight bias-contrary to prior individual research. However, for a particular category of events-disasters-we found robust evidence for hindsight bias. In a lab experiment (Study 2), we then examined whether individuals' hindsight bias is translated into articles under controlled conditions and tested whether collaborative writing-as present in Wikipedia-affects the resultant bias (vs. individual writing). Finally, we investigated the impact of biased Wikipedia articles on readers (Study 3). As predicted, biased articles elicited a hindsight bias in readers, who had not known of the event previously. Moreover, biased articles also affected individuals who knew about the event already, and who had already developed a hindsight bias: biased articles further increased their hindsight.

Post-precipitation bias in band-tailed pigeon surveys conducted at mineral sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, C.T.; Schmitz, R.A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2005-01-01

Many animal surveys to estimate populations or index trends include protocol prohibiting counts during rain but fail to address effects of rainfall preceding the count. Prior research on Pacific Coast band-tailed pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata monilis) documented declines in use of mineral sites during rainfall. We hypothesized that prior precipitation was associated with a short-term increase in use of mineral sites following rain. We conducted weekly counts of band-tailed pigeons at 19 Pacific Northwest mineral sites in 2001 and 20 sites in 2002. Results from regression analysis indicated higher counts ???2 days after rain (11.31??5.00% [x????SE]) compared to ???3 days. Individual index counts conducted ???2 days after rain were biased high, resulting in reduced ability to accurately estimate population trends. Models of band-tailed pigeon visitation rates throughout the summer showed increased mineral-site counts during both June and August migration periods, relative to the July breeding period. Our research supported previous studies recommending that mineral-site counts used to index the band-tailed pigeon population be conducted during July. We further recommend conducting counts >3 days after rain to avoid weather-related bias in index estimation. The design of other population sampling strategies that rely on annual counts should consider the influence of aberrant weather not only coincident with but also preceding surveys if weather patterns are thought to influence behavior or detection probability of target species.

Divergent Urban-Rural Trends in College Attendance: State Policy Bias and Structural Exclusion in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tam, Tony; Jiang, Jin

2015-01-01

Despite the massive expansion of higher education in China since 1998, the cohort trends of urban and rural "hukou" holders in college attendance have widened sharply. Prevailing explanations emphasize the advantages of urban students over rural students in school quality and household financial resources. We propose the structural…

Administration of serotonin inhibitor p-Chlorophenylalanine induces pessimistic-like judgement bias in sheep.

PubMed

Doyle, Rebecca E; Hinch, Geoff N; Fisher, Andrew D; Boissy, Alain; Henshall, John M; Lee, Caroline

2011-02-01

Judgement bias has potential as a measure of affective state in animals. The serotonergic system may be one mechanism involved with the formation of negative judgement biases. It was hypothesised that depletion of brain serotonin would induce negative judgement biases in sheep. A dose response trial established that 40 mg/kg of p-Chlorophenylalanine (pCPA) administered to sheep for 3 days did not affect feeding motivation or locomotion required for testing judgement biases. Thirty Merino ewes (10 months old) were trained to an operant task for 3 weeks. Sheep learnt to approach a bucket when it was placed in one corner of the testing facility to receive a feed reward (go response), and not approach it when in the alternate corner (no-go response) to avoid a negative reinforcer (exposure to a dog). Following training, 15 sheep were treated with pCPA (40 mg/kg daily) for an extended duration (5 days). Treated and control sheep were tested for judgement bias following 3 and 5 days of treatment, and again 5 days after cessation of treatment. Testing involved the bucket being presented in ambiguous locations between the two learnt locations, and the response of the sheep (go/no-go) measured their judgement of the bucket locations. Following 5 days of treatment, pCPA-treated sheep approached the most positive ambiguous location significantly less than control sheep, suggesting a pessimistic-like bias (treatment × bucket location interaction F(1,124.6)=49.97, p=0.011). A trend towards a significant interaction was still evident 5 days after the cessation of pCPA treatment (p=0.068), however no significant interaction was seen on day 3 of testing (p=0.867). These results support the suggestion that judgement bias is a cognitive measure of affective state, and that the serotonergic pathway may be involved. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new inequality? Privatisation, urban bias, migration and medical tourism.

PubMed

Connell, John

2011-01-01

Access to health care in developing countries, the main destinations of medical tourists, is notoriously uneven, and often becoming more so. Medical tourism, urban bias and privatisation have combined to exacerbate this trend. This is exemplified in both Thailand and India, where regional areas have been disadvantaged by the migration of health-care workers to hospitals focusing on medical tourism, neo-liberal national financial provision for medical tourism (and related tourism campaigns) and evidence of trickle-down gains is lacking. Medical tourism challenges rather than complements local health care providers, distorts national health care systems, and raises critical national economic, ethical and social questions.

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Regulatory and evolutionary signatures of sex-biased genes on both the X chromosome and the autosomes.

PubMed

Shen, Jiangshan J; Wang, Ting-You; Yang, Wanling

2017-11-02

Sex is an important but understudied factor in the genetics of human diseases. Analyses using a combination of gene expression data, ENCODE data, and evolutionary data of sex-biased gene expression in human tissues can give insight into the regulatory and evolutionary forces acting on sex-biased genes. In this study, we analyzed the differentially expressed genes between males and females. On the X chromosome, we used a novel method and investigated the status of genes that escape X-chromosome inactivation (escape genes), taking into account the clonality of lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs). To investigate the regulation of sex-biased differentially expressed genes (sDEG), we conducted pathway and transcription factor enrichment analyses on the sDEGs, as well as analyses on the genomic distribution of sDEGs. Evolutionary analyses were also conducted on both sDEGs and escape genes. Genome-wide, we characterized differential gene expression between sexes in 462 RNA-seq samples and identified 587 sex-biased genes, or 3.2% of the genes surveyed. On the X chromosome, sDEGs were distributed in evolutionary strata in a similar pattern as escape genes. We found a trend of negative correlation between the gene expression breadth and nonsynonymous over synonymous mutation (dN/dS) ratios, showing a possible pleiotropic constraint on evolution of genes. Genome-wide, nine transcription factors were found enriched in binding to the regions surrounding the transcription start sites of female-biased genes. Many pathways and protein domains were enriched in sex-biased genes, some of which hint at sex-biased physiological processes. These findings lend insight into the regulatory and evolutionary forces shaping sex-biased gene expression and their involvement in the physiological and pathological processes in human health and diseases.

Publication bias in situ

PubMed Central

Phillips, Carl V

2004-01-01

Background Publication bias, as typically defined, refers to the decreased likelihood of studies' results being published when they are near the null, not statistically significant, or otherwise "less interesting." But choices about how to analyze the data and which results to report create a publication bias within the published results, a bias I label "publication bias in situ" (PBIS). Discussion PBIS may create much greater bias in the literature than traditionally defined publication bias (the failure to publish any result from a study). The causes of PBIS are well known, consisting of various decisions about reporting that are influenced by the data. But its impact is not generally appreciated, and very little attention is devoted to it. What attention there is consists largely of rules for statistical analysis that are impractical and do not actually reduce the bias in reported estimates. PBIS cannot be reduced by statistical tools because it is not fundamentally a problem of statistics, but rather of non-statistical choices and plain language interpretations. PBIS should be recognized as a phenomenon worthy of study – it is extremely common and probably has a huge impact on results reported in the literature – and there should be greater systematic efforts to identify and reduce it. The paper presents examples, including results of a recent HIV vaccine trial, that show how easily PBIS can have a large impact on reported results, as well as how there can be no simple answer to it. Summary PBIS is a major problem, worthy of substantially more attention than it receives. There are ways to reduce the bias, but they are very seldom employed because they are largely unrecognized. PMID:15296515

Publication bias in situ.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V

2004-08-05

Publication bias, as typically defined, refers to the decreased likelihood of studies' results being published when they are near the null, not statistically significant, or otherwise "less interesting." But choices about how to analyze the data and which results to report create a publication bias within the published results, a bias I label "publication bias in situ" (PBIS). PBIS may create much greater bias in the literature than traditionally defined publication bias (the failure to publish any result from a study). The causes of PBIS are well known, consisting of various decisions about reporting that are influenced by the data. But its impact is not generally appreciated, and very little attention is devoted to it. What attention there is consists largely of rules for statistical analysis that are impractical and do not actually reduce the bias in reported estimates. PBIS cannot be reduced by statistical tools because it is not fundamentally a problem of statistics, but rather of non-statistical choices and plain language interpretations. PBIS should be recognized as a phenomenon worthy of study - it is extremely common and probably has a huge impact on results reported in the literature - and there should be greater systematic efforts to identify and reduce it. The paper presents examples, including results of a recent HIV vaccine trial, that show how easily PBIS can have a large impact on reported results, as well as how there can be no simple answer to it. PBIS is a major problem, worthy of substantially more attention than it receives. There are ways to reduce the bias, but they are very seldom employed because they are largely unrecognized.

Chewing Stimulation Reduces Appetite Ratings and Attentional Bias toward Visual Food Stimuli in Healthy-Weight Individuals.

PubMed

Ikeda, Akitsu; Miyamoto, Jun J; Usui, Nobuo; Taira, Masato; Moriyama, Keiji

2018-01-01

Based on the theory of incentive sensitization, the exposure to food stimuli sensitizes the brain's reward circuits and enhances attentional bias toward food. Therefore, reducing attentional bias to food could possibly be beneficial in preventing impulsive eating. The importance of chewing has been increasingly implicated as one of the methods for reducing appetite, however, no studies to investigate the effect of chewing on attentional bias to food. In this study, we investigated whether chewing stimulation (i.e., chewing tasteless gum) reduces attentional bias to food as well as an actual feeding (i.e., ingesting a standardized meal) does. We measured reaction time, gaze direction and gaze duration to assess attentional bias toward food images in pairs of food and non-food images that were presented in a visual probe task (Experiment 1, n = 21) and/or eye-tracking task (Experiment 2, n = 20). We also measured appetite ratings using visual analog scale. In addition, we conducted a control study in which the same number of participants performed the identical tasks to Experiments 1 and 2, but the participants did not perform sham feeding with gum-chewing/actual feeding between tasks and they took a rest. Two-way ANOVA revealed that after actual feeding, subjective ratings of hunger, preoccupation with food, and desire to eat significantly decreased, whereas fullness significantly increased. Sham feeding showed the same trends, but to a lesser degree. Results of the visual probe task in Experiment 1 showed that both sham feeding and actual feeding reduced reaction time bias significantly. Eye-tracking data showed that both sham and actual feeding resulted in significant reduction in gaze direction bias, indexing initial attentional orientation. Gaze duration bias was unaffected. In both control experiments, one-way ANOVAs showed no significant differences between immediately before and after the resting state for any of the appetite ratings, reaction time bias, gaze

Chewing Stimulation Reduces Appetite Ratings and Attentional Bias toward Visual Food Stimuli in Healthy-Weight Individuals

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Akitsu; Miyamoto, Jun J.; Usui, Nobuo; Taira, Masato; Moriyama, Keiji

2018-01-01

Based on the theory of incentive sensitization, the exposure to food stimuli sensitizes the brain’s reward circuits and enhances attentional bias toward food. Therefore, reducing attentional bias to food could possibly be beneficial in preventing impulsive eating. The importance of chewing has been increasingly implicated as one of the methods for reducing appetite, however, no studies to investigate the effect of chewing on attentional bias to food. In this study, we investigated whether chewing stimulation (i.e., chewing tasteless gum) reduces attentional bias to food as well as an actual feeding (i.e., ingesting a standardized meal) does. We measured reaction time, gaze direction and gaze duration to assess attentional bias toward food images in pairs of food and non-food images that were presented in a visual probe task (Experiment 1, n = 21) and/or eye-tracking task (Experiment 2, n = 20). We also measured appetite ratings using visual analog scale. In addition, we conducted a control study in which the same number of participants performed the identical tasks to Experiments 1 and 2, but the participants did not perform sham feeding with gum-chewing/actual feeding between tasks and they took a rest. Two-way ANOVA revealed that after actual feeding, subjective ratings of hunger, preoccupation with food, and desire to eat significantly decreased, whereas fullness significantly increased. Sham feeding showed the same trends, but to a lesser degree. Results of the visual probe task in Experiment 1 showed that both sham feeding and actual feeding reduced reaction time bias significantly. Eye-tracking data showed that both sham and actual feeding resulted in significant reduction in gaze direction bias, indexing initial attentional orientation. Gaze duration bias was unaffected. In both control experiments, one-way ANOVAs showed no significant differences between immediately before and after the resting state for any of the appetite ratings, reaction time bias

The American High School Graduation Rate: Trends and Levels. NBER Working Paper No. 13670

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heckman, James J.; LaFontaine, Paul A.

2007-01-01

This paper uses multiple data sources and a unified methodology to estimate the trends and levels of the U.S. high school graduation rate. Correcting for important biases that plague previous calculations, we establish that (1) the true high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the official rate issued by the National Center for…

Atomoxetine effects on attentional bias to drug-related cues in cocaine dependent individuals.

PubMed

Passamonti, Luca; Luijten, M; Ziauddeen, H; Coyle-Gilchrist, I T S; Rittman, T; Brain, S A E; Regenthal, R; Franken, I H A; Sahakian, B J; Bullmore, E T; Robbins, T W; Ersche, K D

2017-08-01

Biased attention towards drug-related cues and reduced inhibitory control over the regulation of drug-intake characterize drug addiction. The noradrenaline system has been critically implicated in both attentional and response inhibitory processes and is directly affected by drugs such as cocaine. We examined the potentially beneficial effects of the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine in improving cognitive control during two tasks that used cocaine- and non-cocaine-related stimuli. A double-blind, placebo-controlled, and cross-over psycho-pharmacological design was employed. A single oral dose of atomoxetine (40 mg) was administered to 28 cocaine-dependent individuals (CDIs) and 28 healthy controls. All participants performed a pictorial attentional bias task involving both cocaine- and non-cocaine-related pictures as well as a verbal go/no-go task composed of cocaine- and food-related words. As expected, CDIs showed attentional bias to cocaine-related cues whilst controls did not. More importantly, however, atomoxetine, relative to placebo, significantly attenuated attentional bias in CDIs (F 26  = 6.73, P = 0.01). During the go/no-go task, there was a treatment × trial × group interaction, although this finding only showed a trend towards statistical significance (F 26  = 3.38, P = 0.07). Our findings suggest that atomoxetine reduces attentional bias to drug-related cues in CDIs. This may result from atomoxetine's modulation of the balance between tonic/phasic activity in the locus coeruleus and the possibly parallel enhancement of noradrenergic neurotransmission within the prefrontal cortex. Studying how cognitive enhancers such as atomoxetine influence key neurocognitive indices in cocaine addiction may help to develop reliable biomarkers for patient stratification in future clinical trials.

Evaluating anemometer drift: A statistical approach to correct biases in wind speed measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Asin, Jesus; McVicar, Tim R.; Minola, Lorenzo; Lopez-Moreno, Juan I.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Chen, Deliang

2018-05-01

Recent studies on observed wind variability have revealed a decline (termed "stilling") of near-surface wind speed during the last 30-50 years over many mid-latitude terrestrial regions, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The well-known impact of cup anemometer drift (i.e., wear on the bearings) on the observed weakening of wind speed has been mentioned as a potential contributor to the declining trend. However, to date, no research has quantified its contribution to stilling based on measurements, which is most likely due to lack of quantification of the ageing effect. In this study, a 3-year field experiment (2014-2016) with 10-minute paired wind speed measurements from one new and one malfunctioned (i.e., old bearings) SEAC SV5 cup anemometer which has been used by the Spanish Meteorological Agency in automatic weather stations since mid-1980s, was developed for assessing for the first time the role of anemometer drift on wind speed measurement. The results showed a statistical significant impact of anemometer drift on wind speed measurements, with the old anemometer measuring lower wind speeds than the new one. Biases show a marked temporal pattern and clear dependency on wind speed, with both weak and strong winds causing significant biases. This pioneering quantification of biases has allowed us to define two regression models that correct up to 37% of the artificial bias in wind speed due to measurement with an old anemometer.

Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

PubMed

Wilson, Ander; Chiu, Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien Leon; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Coull, Brent A

2017-12-01

Evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and children's health outcomes. Recent interest has focused on identifying critical windows of vulnerability. An analysis based on a distributed lag model (DLM) can yield estimates of a critical window that are different from those from an analysis that regresses the outcome on each of the 3 trimester-average exposures (TAEs). Using a simulation study, we assessed bias in estimates of critical windows obtained using 3 regression approaches: 1) 3 separate models to estimate the association with each of the 3 TAEs; 2) a single model to jointly estimate the association between the outcome and all 3 TAEs; and 3) a DLM. We used weekly fine-particulate-matter exposure data for 238 births in a birth cohort in and around Boston, Massachusetts, and a simulated outcome and time-varying exposure effect. Estimates using separate models for each TAE were biased and identified incorrect windows. This bias arose from seasonal trends in particulate matter that induced correlation between TAEs. Including all TAEs in a single model reduced bias. DLM produced unbiased estimates and added flexibility to identify windows. Analysis of body mass index z score and fat mass in the same cohort highlighted inconsistent estimates from the 3 methods. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Threat bias, not negativity bias, underpins differences in political ideology.

PubMed

Lilienfeld, Scott O; Latzman, Robert D

2014-06-01

Although disparities in political ideology are rooted partly in dispositional differences, Hibbing et al.'s analysis paints with an overly broad brush. Research on the personality correlates of liberal-conservative differences points not to global differences in negativity bias, but to differences in threat bias, probably emanating from differences in fearfulness. This distinction bears implications for etiological research and persuasion efforts.

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

PubMed

Choi, Hyon K; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-07-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias--a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic--in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the 'risk factor paradox'--a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research.

Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

2014-12-01

Quantitative bias analysis serves several objectives in epidemiological research. First, it provides a quantitative estimate of the direction, magnitude and uncertainty arising from systematic errors. Second, the acts of identifying sources of systematic error, writing down models to quantify them, assigning values to the bias parameters and interpreting the results combat the human tendency towards overconfidence in research results, syntheses and critiques and the inferences that rest upon them. Finally, by suggesting aspects that dominate uncertainty in a particular research result or topic area, bias analysis can guide efficient allocation of sparse research resources. The fundamental methods of bias analyses have been known for decades, and there have been calls for more widespread use for nearly as long. There was a time when some believed that bias analyses were rarely undertaken because the methods were not widely known and because automated computing tools were not readily available to implement the methods. These shortcomings have been largely resolved. We must, therefore, contemplate other barriers to implementation. One possibility is that practitioners avoid the analyses because they lack confidence in the practice of bias analysis. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe what we view as good practices for applying quantitative bias analysis to epidemiological data, directed towards those familiar with the methods. We focus on answering questions often posed to those of us who advocate incorporation of bias analysis methods into teaching and research. These include the following. When is bias analysis practical and productive? How does one select the biases that ought to be addressed? How does one select a method to model biases? How does one assign values to the parameters of a bias model? How does one present and interpret a bias analysis?. We hope that our guide to good practices for conducting and presenting bias analyses will encourage

Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L

2007-11-26

The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a qualitative description of study limitations. The latter approach is

Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review.

PubMed

Hugh, Thomas B; Dekker, Sidney W A

2009-05-01

Medical negligence has been the subject of much public debate in recent decades. Although the steep increase in the frequency and size of claims against doctors at the end of the last century appears to have plateaued, in Australia at least, medical indemnity costs and consequences are still a matter of concern for doctors, medical defence organisations and governments in most developed countries. Imprecision in the legal definition of negligence opens the possibility that judgments of this issue at several levels may be subject to hindsight and outcome bias. Hindsight bias relates to the probability of an adverse event perceived by a retrospective observer ("I would have known it was going to happen"), while outcome bias is a largely subconscious cognitive distortion produced by the observer's knowledge of the adverse outcome. This review examines the relevant legal, medical, psychological and sociological literature on the operation of these pervasive and universal biases in the retrospective evaluation of adverse events. A finding of medical negligence is essentially an after-the-event social construction and is invariably affected by hindsight bias and knowledge of the adverse outcome. Such biases obviously pose a threat to the fairness of judgments. A number of debiasing strategies have been suggested but are relatively ineffective because of the universality and strength of these biases and the inherent difficulty of concealing from expert witnesses knowledge of the outcome. Education about the effect of the biases is therefore important for lawyers, medical expert witnesses and the judiciary.

MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

PubMed Central

Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

2016-01-01

Abstract Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil‐Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj–xi)/(tj–ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil‐Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil‐Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one‐sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root‐mean‐square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences. PMID:27668140

MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection.

PubMed

Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C; Gazeaux, Julien

2016-03-01

Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes v ij  = ( x j -x i )/( t j -t i ) computed between all data pairs i  >  j . For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

Bias versus bias: harnessing hindsight to reveal paranormal belief change beyond demand characteristics.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Core, Tammy J; Hunt, R Reed

2010-04-01

Psychological change is difficult to assess, in part because self-reported beliefs and attitudes may be biased or distorted. The present study probed belief change, in an educational context, by using the hindsight bias to counter another bias that generally plagues assessment of subjective change. Although research has indicated that skepticism courses reduce paranormal beliefs, those findings may reflect demand characteristics (biases toward desired, skeptical responses). Our hindsight-bias procedure circumvented demand by asking students, following semester-long skepticism (and control) courses, to recall their precourse levels of paranormal belief. People typically remember themselves as previously thinking, believing, and acting as they do now, so current skepticism should provoke false recollections of previous skepticism. Given true belief change, therefore, skepticism students should have remembered themselves as having been more skeptical than they were. They did, at least about paranormal topics that were covered most extensively in the course. Our findings thus show hindsight to be useful in evaluating cognitive change beyond demand characteristics.

Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective

PubMed Central

Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320

Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremser, Stefanie; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Rust, Henning W.; Bodeker, Greg E.

2018-05-01

Upper-air measurements of essential climate variables (ECVs), such as temperature, are crucial for climate monitoring and climate change detection. Because of the internal variability of the climate system, many decades of measurements are typically required to robustly detect any trend in the climate data record. It is imperative for the records to be temporally homogeneous over many decades to confidently estimate any trend. Historically, records of upper-air measurements were primarily made for short-term weather forecasts and as such are seldom suitable for studying long-term climate change as they lack the required continuity and homogeneity. Recognizing this, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) has been established to provide reference-quality measurements of climate variables, such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, together with well-characterized and traceable estimates of the measurement uncertainty. To ensure that GRUAN data products are suitable to detect climate change, a scientifically robust instrument replacement strategy must always be adopted whenever there is a change in instrumentation. By fully characterizing any systematic differences between the old and new measurement system a temporally homogeneous data series can be created. One strategy is to operate both the old and new instruments in tandem for some overlap period to characterize any inter-instrument biases. However, this strategy can be prohibitively expensive at measurement sites operated by national weather services or research institutes. An alternative strategy that has been proposed is to alternate between the old and new instruments, so-called interlacing, and then statistically derive the systematic biases between the two instruments. Here we investigate the feasibility of such an approach specifically for radiosondes, i.e. flying the old and new instruments on alternating days. Synthetic data sets are used to explore the

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence

PubMed Central

Huggins, Richard; Dogo, Samson Henry

2015-01-01

Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed ‘sequential decision bias’ and ‘sequential design bias’, are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the previous studies. Sequential decision bias is determined by the correlation between the value of the current estimated effect and the probability of conducting an additional study. Sequential design bias arises from using the estimated value instead of the clinically relevant value of an effect in sample size calculations. We considered both the fixed‐effect and the random‐effects models of meta‐analysis and demonstrated analytically and by simulations that in both settings the problems due to sequential biases are apparent. According to our simulations, the sequential biases increase with increased heterogeneity. Minimisation of sequential biases arises as a new and important research area necessary for successful evidence‐based approaches to the development of science. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26626562

Mapping the Similarities of Spectra: Global and Locally-biased Approaches to SDSS Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawlor, David; Budavári, Tamás; Mahoney, Michael W.

2016-12-01

We present a novel approach to studying the diversity of galaxies. It is based on a novel spectral graph technique, that of locally-biased semi-supervised eigenvectors. Our method introduces new coordinates that summarize an entire spectrum, similar to but going well beyond the widely used Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Unlike PCA, however, this technique does not assume that the Euclidean distance between galaxy spectra is a good global measure of similarity. Instead, we relax that condition to only the most similar spectra, and we show that doing so yields more reliable results for many astronomical questions of interest. The global variant of our approach can identify very finely numerous astronomical phenomena of interest. The locally-biased variants of our basic approach enable us to explore subtle trends around a set of chosen objects. The power of the method is demonstrated in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Main Galaxy Sample, by illustrating that the derived spectral coordinates carry an unprecedented amount of information.

Elucidating structural and molecular mechanisms of β-arrestin-biased agonism at GPCRs via MS-based proteomics.

PubMed

Xiao, Kunhong; Sun, Jinpeng

2018-01-01

The discovery of β-arrestin-dependent GPCR signaling has led to an exciting new field in GPCR pharmacology: to develop "biased agonists" that can selectively target a specific downstream signaling pathway that elicits beneficial therapeutic effects without activating other pathways that elicit negative side effects. This new trend in GPCR drug discovery requires us to understand the structural and molecular mechanisms of β-arrestin-biased agonism, which largely remain unclear. We have used cutting-edge mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics, combined with systems, chemical and structural biology to study protein function, macromolecular interaction, protein expression and posttranslational modifications in the β-arrestin-dependent GPCR signaling. These high-throughput proteomic studies have provided a systems view of β-arrestin-biased agonism from several perspectives: distinct receptor phosphorylation barcode, multiple receptor conformations, distinct β-arrestin conformations, and ligand-specific signaling. The information obtained from these studies offers new insights into the molecular basis of GPCR regulation by β-arrestin and provides a potential platform for developing novel therapeutic interventions through GPCRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research

PubMed Central

Choi, Hyon K.; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-01-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the ‘risk factor paradox’—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research. PMID:24686510

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar

2018-02-01

Over the recent three decades sea surface temperate (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La Niña-like cooling. Based on the assumption of "perfect" models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observation. But the exact causes remain unclear. Recent studies have suggested that observed SST warming in the other two ocean basins in past decades and the thermostat mechanism in the Pacific in response to increased radiative forcing may also play an important role in driving this La Niña-like cooling. Here, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that common biases of current state-of-the-art climate models may deteriorate the models' ability and can also contribute to this multi-model simulations-observation discrepancy. Our results suggest that underestimated inter-basin warming contrast across the three tropical oceans, overestimated surface net heat flux and underestimated local SST-cloud negative feedback in the equatorial Pacific may favor an El Niño-like warming bias in the models. Effects of the three common model biases do not cancel one another and jointly explain 50% of the total variance of the discrepancies between the observation and individual models' ensemble mean simulations of the Pacific SST trend. Further efforts on reducing common model biases could help improve simulations of the externally forced climate trends and the multi-decadal climate fluctuations.

Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

PubMed

Hilbert, Martin

2012-03-01

A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

Estimating Bias Error Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Tian-Shu; Finley, Tom D.

2001-01-01

This paper formulates the general methodology for estimating the bias error distribution of a device in a measuring domain from less accurate measurements when a minimal number of standard values (typically two values) are available. A new perspective is that the bias error distribution can be found as a solution of an intrinsic functional equation in a domain. Based on this theory, the scaling- and translation-based methods for determining the bias error distribution arc developed. These methods are virtually applicable to any device as long as the bias error distribution of the device can be sufficiently described by a power series (a polynomial) or a Fourier series in a domain. These methods have been validated through computational simulations and laboratory calibration experiments for a number of different devices.

Mood-congruent attention and memory bias in dysphoria: Exploring the coherence among information-processing biases.

PubMed

Koster, Ernst H W; De Raedt, Rudi; Leyman, Lemke; De Lissnyder, Evi

2010-03-01

Recent studies indicate that depression is characterized by mood-congruent attention bias at later stages of information-processing. Moreover, depression has been associated with enhanced recall of negative information. The present study tested the coherence between attention and memory bias in dysphoria. Stable dysphoric (n = 41) and non-dysphoric (n = 41) undergraduates first performed a spatial cueing task that included negative, positive, and neutral words. Words were presented for 250 ms under conditions that allowed or prevented elaborate processing. Memory for the words presented in the cueing task was tested using incidental free recall. Dysphoric individuals exhibited an attention bias for negative words in the condition that allowed elaborate processing, with the attention bias for negative words predicting free recall of negative words. Results demonstrate the coherence of attention and memory bias in dysphoric individuals and provide suggestions on the influence of attention bias on further processing of negative material. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence of selective reporting bias in hematology journals: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Scheckel, Caleb; Hicks, Chandler; Nissen, Timothy; Leduc, Linda; Som, Mousumi; Vassar, Matt

2017-01-01

Introduction Selective reporting bias occurs when chance or selective outcome reporting rather than the intervention contributes to group differences. The prevailing concern about selective reporting bias is the possibility of results being modified towards specific conclusions. In this study, we evaluate randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in hematology journals, a group in which selective outcome reporting has not yet been explored. Methods Our primary goal was to examine discrepancies between the reported primary and secondary outcomes in registered and published RCTs concerning hematological malignancies reported in hematology journals with a high impact factor. The secondary goals were to address whether outcome reporting discrepancies favored statistically significant outcomes, whether a pattern existed between the funding source and likelihood of outcome reporting bias, and whether temporal trends were present in outcome reporting bias. For trials with major outcome discrepancies, we contacted trialists to determine reasons for these discrepancies. Trials published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015 in Blood; British Journal of Haematology; American Journal of Hematology; Leukemia; and Haematologica were included. Results Of 499 RCTs screened, 109 RCTs were included. Our analysis revealed 118 major discrepancies and 629 total discrepancies. Among the 118 discrepancies, 30 (25.4%) primary outcomes were demoted, 47 (39.8%) primary outcomes were omitted, and 30 (25.4%) primary outcomes were added. Three (2.5%) secondary outcomes were upgraded to a primary outcome. The timing of assessment for a primary outcome changed eight (6.8%) times. Thirty-one major discrepancies were published with a P-value and twenty-five (80.6%) favored statistical significance. A majority of authors whom we contacted cited a pre-planned subgroup analysis as a reason for outcome changes. Conclusion Our results suggest that outcome changes occur frequently in

Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-12-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) has been a widely used metric to study climate change. Weather observations of LSAT are the fundamental data for climate change studies and provide key evidence of global warming. However, there are very few meteorological observations over deserts due to their uninhabitable environment. This study fills this gap and provides independent evidence using satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), benefiting from their global coverage. The frequency of clear sky from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data over global deserts was found to be greater than 94% for the 2002-2015 period. Our results show that MODIS LST has a bias of 1.36°C compared to ground-based observations collected at 31 U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations, with a standard deviation of 1.83°C. After bias correction, MODIS LST was used to evaluate existing reanalyses, including ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-land, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-R1, and NCEP-R2. The reanalyses accurately reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the LSTs, but their multiyear means and trends of LSTs exhibit large uncertainties. The multiyear averaged LST over global deserts is 23.5°C from MODIS and varies from 20.8°C to 24.5°C in different reanalyses. The MODIS LST over global deserts increased by 0.25°C/decade from 2002 to 2015, whereas the reanalyses estimated a trend varying from -0.14 to 0.10°C/decade. The underestimation of the LST trend by the reanalyses occurs for approximately 70% of the global deserts, likely due to the imperfect performance of the reanalyses in reproducing natural climate variability.

Stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, and sad bias in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder or depression

PubMed Central

Sylvester, Chad M.; Hudziak, James J.; Gaffrey, Michael S.; Barch, Deanna M.; Luby, Joan L.

2015-01-01

Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n=40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n=33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression. PMID:25702927

Stimulus-Driven Attention, Threat Bias, and Sad Bias in Youth with a History of an Anxiety Disorder or Depression.

PubMed

Sylvester, Chad M; Hudziak, James J; Gaffrey, Michael S; Barch, Deanna M; Luby, Joan L

2016-02-01

Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n = 40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n = 33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression.

Unconscious gender bias in fame judgments?

PubMed

Buchner, A; Wippich, W

1996-01-01

In two experiments the conditions of, and the processes leading to, gender biases in fame judgments were investigated. In Experiment 1, the gender bias was not reduced in a condition that alerted participants to the gender of the names. In Experiment 2, participants' sex-role orientation, but not their gender, was related to the gender bias. The process dissociation procedure was used in both experiments in an attempt to separate conscious and unconscious memory processes contributing to the gender bias. Using L.L. Jacoby's 1991) original measurement model there appeared to be evidence for unconscious influences on the gender bias in fame judgments. Unfortunately, this evidence disappeared when a model was used that takes guessing and, hence, response biases into account, which confirms that measurement models that ignore response biases in the process dissociation procedure may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Cremin, I; Mushati, P; Hallett, T; Mupambireyi, Z; Nyamukapa, C; Garnett, G P; Gregson, S

2009-04-01

To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

A New Navigation Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Modified Clock-bias Quadratic Polynomial Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. P.; Lu, Z. P.; Sun, D. S.; Wang, N.

2016-01-01

In order to better express the characteristics of satellite clock bias (SCB) and improve SCB prediction precision, this paper proposed a new SCB prediction model which can take physical characteristics of space-borne atomic clock, the cyclic variation, and random part of SCB into consideration. First, the new model employs a quadratic polynomial model with periodic items to fit and extract the trend term and cyclic term of SCB; then based on the characteristics of fitting residuals, a time series ARIMA ~(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used to model the residuals; eventually, the results from the two models are combined to obtain final SCB prediction values. At last, this paper uses precise SCB data from IGS (International GNSS Service) to conduct prediction tests, and the results show that the proposed model is effective and has better prediction performance compared with the quadratic polynomial model, grey model, and ARIMA model. In addition, the new method can also overcome the insufficiency of the ARIMA model in model recognition and order determination.

Cognitive Bias Modification Training in Adolescents: Effects on Interpretation Biases and Mood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lothmann, Claudia; Holmes, Emily A.; Chan, Stella W. Y.; Lau, Jennifer Y. F.

2011-01-01

Background: Negative biases in the interpretation of ambiguous material have been linked to anxiety and mood problems. Accumulating data from adults show that positive and negative interpretation styles can be induced through cognitive bias modification (CBM) paradigms with accompanying changes in mood. Despite the therapeutic potential of…

Unpacking the Evidence of Gender Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fulmer, Connie L.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate gender bias in pre-service principals using the Gender-Leader Implicit Association Test. Analyses of student-learning narratives revealed how students made sense of gender bias (biased or not-biased) and how each reacted to evidence (surprised or not-surprised). Two implications were: (1) the need for…

Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

2010-12-01

Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

Expectancy bias in anxious samples

PubMed Central

Cabeleira, Cindy M.; Steinman, Shari A.; Burgess, Melissa M.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Melo, Wilson; Teachman, Bethany A.

2014-01-01

While it is well documented that anxious individuals have negative expectations about the future, it is unclear what cognitive processes give rise to this expectancy bias. Two studies are reported that use the Expectancy Task, which is designed to assess expectancy bias and illuminate its basis. This task presents individuals with valenced scenarios (Positive Valence, Negative Valence, or Conflicting Valence), and then evaluates their tendency to expect subsequent future positive relative to negative events. The Expectancy Task was used with low and high trait anxious (Study 1: N = 32) and anxiety sensitive (Study 2: N = 138) individuals. Results suggest that in the context of physical concerns, both high anxious samples display a less positive expectancy bias. In the context of social concerns, high trait anxious individuals display a negative expectancy bias only when negatively valenced information was previously presented. Overall, this suggests that anxious individuals display a less positive expectancy bias, and that the processes that give rise to this bias may vary by type of situation (e.g., social or physical) or anxiety difficulty. PMID:24798678

Gender Bias in Early Childhood Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kovar, Patricia McAfee; Doty, LuEllen

Noting that both boys and girls suffer because of gender bias in society and in the classroom, this paper examines the roots and consequences of such bias. The paper first provides a historical overview of gender bias and its relation to the prevalent world view. Next, it examines the manifestations of gender bias in the classroom and their…

Effect of Diffusion Limitations on Multianalyte Determination from Biased Biosensor Response

PubMed Central

Baronas, Romas; Kulys, Juozas; Lančinskas, Algirdas; Žilinskas, Antanas

2014-01-01

The optimization-based quantitative determination of multianalyte concentrations from biased biosensor responses is investigated under internal and external diffusion-limited conditions. A computational model of a biocatalytic amperometric biosensor utilizing a mono-enzyme-catalyzed (nonspecific) competitive conversion of two substrates was used to generate pseudo-experimental responses to mixtures of compounds. The influence of possible perturbations of the biosensor signal, due to a white noise- and temperature-induced trend, on the precision of the concentration determination has been investigated for different configurations of the biosensor operation. The optimization method was found to be suitable and accurate enough for the quantitative determination of the concentrations of the compounds from a given biosensor transient response. The computational experiments showed a complex dependence of the precision of the concentration estimation on the relative thickness of the outer diffusion layer, as well as on whether the biosensor operates under diffusion- or kinetics-limited conditions. When the biosensor response is affected by the induced exponential trend, the duration of the biosensor action can be optimized for increasing the accuracy of the quantitative analysis. PMID:24608006

Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

PubMed

Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

2000-08-01

An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampling of trajectories is then biased, but the sampling is unbiased when the trajectory outcomes are multiplied by their weights. With a suitable choice of the biasing force, more reacted trajectories are sampled. As a consequence, the variance of the estimate is reduced. In our test case, biased Brownian dynamics gives a sevenfold improvement in central processing unit (CPU) time with the choice of a simple centripetal biasing force.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Attention, interpretation, and memory biases in subclinical depression: a proof-of-principle test of the combined cognitive biases hypothesis.

PubMed

Everaert, Jonas; Duyck, Wouter; Koster, Ernst H W

2014-04-01

Emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are viewed as important cognitive processes underlying symptoms of depression. To date, there is a limited understanding of the interplay among these processing biases. This study tested the dependence of memory on depression-related biases in attention and interpretation. Subclinically depressed and nondepressed participants completed a computerized version of the scrambled sentences test (measuring interpretation bias) while their eye movements were recorded (measuring attention bias). This task was followed by an incidental free recall test of previously constructed interpretations (measuring memory bias). Path analysis revealed a good fit for the model in which selective orienting of attention was associated with interpretation bias, which in turn was associated with a congruent bias in memory. Also, a good fit was observed for a path model in which biases in the maintenance of attention and interpretation were associated with memory bias. Both path models attained a superior fit compared with path models without the theorized functional relations among processing biases. These findings enhance understanding of how mechanisms of attention and interpretation regulate what is remembered. As such, they offer support for the combined cognitive biases hypothesis or the notion that emotionally biased cognitive processes are not isolated mechanisms but instead influence each other. Implications for theoretical models and emotion regulation across the spectrum of depressive symptoms are discussed.

Publication bias in obesity treatment trials?

PubMed

Allison, D B; Faith, M S; Gorman, B S

1996-10-01

The present investigation examined the extent of publication bias (namely the tendency to publish significant findings and file away non-significant findings) within the obesity treatment literature. Quantitative literature synthesis of four published meta-analyses from the obesity treatment literature. Interventions in these studies included pharmacological, educational, child, and couples treatments. To assess publication bias, several regression procedures (for example weighted least-squares, random-effects multi-level modeling, and robust regression methods) were used to regress effect sizes onto their standard errors, or proxies thereof, within each of the four meta-analysis. A significant positive beta weight in these analyses signified publication bias. There was evidence for publication bias within two of the four published meta-analyses, such that reviews of published studies were likely to overestimate clinical efficacy. The lack of evidence for publication bias within the two other meta-analyses might have been due to insufficient statistical power rather than the absence of selection bias. As in other disciplines, publication bias appears to exist in the obesity treatment literature. Suggestions are offered for managing publication bias once identified or reducing its likelihood in the first place.

Fitting N-mixture models to count data with unmodeled heterogeneity: Bias, diagnostics, and alternative approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

2018-01-01

Monitoring animal populations is central to wildlife and fisheries management, and the use of N-mixture models toward these efforts has markedly increased in recent years. Nevertheless, relatively little work has evaluated estimator performance when basic assumptions are violated. Moreover, diagnostics to identify when bias in parameter estimates from N-mixture models is likely is largely unexplored. We simulated count data sets using 837 combinations of detection probability, number of sample units, number of survey occasions, and type and extent of heterogeneity in abundance or detectability. We fit Poisson N-mixture models to these data, quantified the bias associated with each combination, and evaluated if the parametric bootstrap goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can be used to indicate bias in parameter estimates. We also explored if assumption violations can be diagnosed prior to fitting N-mixture models. In doing so, we propose a new model diagnostic, which we term the quasi-coefficient of variation (QCV). N-mixture models performed well when assumptions were met and detection probabilities were moderate (i.e., ≥0.3), and the performance of the estimator improved with increasing survey occasions and sample units. However, the magnitude of bias in estimated mean abundance with even slight amounts of unmodeled heterogeneity was substantial. The parametric bootstrap GOF test did not perform well as a diagnostic for bias in parameter estimates when detectability and sample sizes were low. The results indicate the QCV is useful to diagnose potential bias and that potential bias associated with unidirectional trends in abundance or detectability can be diagnosed using Poisson regression. This study represents the most thorough assessment to date of assumption violations and diagnostics when fitting N-mixture models using the most commonly implemented error distribution. Unbiased estimates of population state variables are needed to properly inform management decision

[Biases in the study of prognostic factors].

PubMed

Delgado-Rodríguez, M

1999-01-01

The main objective is to detail the main biases in the study of prognostic factors. Confounding bias is illustrated with social class, a prognostic factor still discussed. Within selection bias several cases are commented: response bias, specially frequent when the patients of a clinical trial are used; the shortcomings in the formation of an inception cohort; the fallacy of Neyman (bias due to the duration of disease) when the study begins with a cross-sectional study; the selection bias in the treatment of survivors for the different treatment opportunity of those living longer; the bias due to the inclusion of heterogeneous diagnostic groups; and the selection bias due to differential information losses and the use of statistical multivariate procedures. Within the biases during follow-up, an empiric rule to value the impact of the number of losses is given. In information bias the Will Rogers' phenomenon and the usefulness of clinical databases are discussed. Lastly, a recommendation against the use of cutoff points yielded by bivariate analyses to select the variable to be included in multivariate analysis is given.

What's going on? The question of time trends in autism.

PubMed

Blaxill, Mark F

2004-01-01

Increases in the reported prevalence of autism and autistic spectrum disorders in recent years have fueled concern over possible environmental causes. The author reviews the available survey literature and finds evidence of large increases in prevalence in both the United States and the United Kingdom that cannot be explained by changes in diagnostic criteria or improvements in case ascertainment. Incomplete ascertainment of autism cases in young child populations is the largest source of predictable bias in prevalence surveys; however, this bias has, if anything, worked against the detection of an upward trend in recent surveys. Comparison of autism rates by year of birth for specific geographies provides the strongest basis for trend assessment. Such comparisons show large recent increases in rates of autism and autistic spectrum disorders in both the U.S. and the U.K. Reported rates of autism in the United States increased from < 3 per 10,000 children in the 1970s to > 30 per 10,000 children in the 1990s, a 10-fold increase. In the United Kingdom, autism rates rose from < 10 per 10,000 in the 1980s to roughly 30 per 10,000 in the 1990s. Reported rates for the full spectrum of autistic disorders rose from the 5 to 10 per 10,000 range to the 50 to 80 per 10,000 range in the two countries. A precautionary approach suggests that the rising incidence of autism should be a matter of urgent public concern.

The Impact of Early Design Phase Risk Identification Biases on Space System Project Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, John D., Jr.; Eveleigh, Tim; Holzer, Thomas; Sarkani, Shahryar

2012-01-01

Risk identification during the early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to result in the identification of events and circumstances that truly challenge project performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimation are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. A deeper understanding of frequent risk identification trends and biases pervasive during space system design and development is needed, for it would lead to improved execution of existing identification processes and methods.

Bias-field equalizer for bubble memories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keefe, G. E.

1977-01-01

Magnetoresistive Perm-alloy sensor monitors bias field required to maintain bubble memory. Sensor provides error signal that, in turn, corrects magnitude of bias field. Error signal from sensor can be used to control magnitude of bias field in either auxiliary set of bias-field coils around permanent magnet field, or current in small coils used to remagnetize permanent magnet by infrequent, short, high-current pulse or short sequence of pulses.

Global trends in use of long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception: Seeking a balance.

PubMed

Joshi, Ritu; Khadilkar, Suvarna; Patel, Madhuri

2015-10-01

The global trend shows that the use of permanent contraception to prevent unintended pregnancy is high. Although the trend also shows a rise in the use of long-acting reversible methods, these are still underutilized despite having contraceptive as well as non-contraceptive benefits. Lack of knowledge among women, dependence on the provider for information, and provider bias for permanent contraception are cited as reasons for this reduced uptake. Training of healthcare providers and increased patient awareness about the effectiveness of long-acting reversible contraceptive methods will increase their uptake and help prevent unintended pregnancies. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Role of survivor bias in pancreatic cancer case-control studies.

PubMed

Hu, Zhen-Huan; Connett, John E; Yuan, Jian-Min; Anderson, Kristin E

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of survivor bias on pancreatic cancer case-control studies. The authors constructed five case-loss scenarios based on the Iowa Women's Health Study cohort to reflect how case recruitment in population-based studies varies by case survival time. Risk factors for disease incidence included smoking, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, diabetes, and alcohol consumption. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression and quantitatively compared by the interactions between risk factors and 3-month survival time. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier estimates for overall survival were compared within the subset cohort of pancreatic cancer cases. BMI and waist circumference showed a significant inverse relationship with survival time. Decreasing trends in ORs for BMI and waist circumference were observed with increasing case survival time. The interaction between BMI and survival time based on a cutpoint of 3 months was significant (P < .01) as was the interaction between waist circumference and survival time (P < .01). The findings suggested that case losses could result in survivor bias causing underestimated odds ratios for both BMI and waist circumference, whereas other risk factors were not significantly affected by case losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Adaptive-numerical-bias metadynamics.

PubMed

Khanjari, Neda; Eslami, Hossein; Müller-Plathe, Florian

2017-12-05

A metadynamics scheme is presented in which the free energy surface is filled with progressively adding adaptive biasing potentials, obtained from the accumulated probability distribution of the collective variables. Instead of adding Gaussians with assigned height and width in conventional metadynamics method, here we add a more realistic adaptive biasing potential to the Hamiltonian of the system. The shape of the adaptive biasing potential is adjusted on the fly by sampling over the visited states. As the top of the barrier is approached, the biasing potentials become wider. This decreases the problem of trapping the system in the niches, introduced by the addition of Gaussians of fixed height in metadynamics. Our results for the free energy profiles of three test systems show that this method is more accurate and converges more quickly than the conventional metadynamics, and is quite comparable (in accuracy and convergence rate) with the well-tempered metadynamics method. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Introduction to Unconscious Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmelz, Joan T.

2010-05-01

We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

Study of the Dependence on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bandler, Simon

2011-01-01

At SRON we are studying the performance of a Goddard Space Flight Center single pixel TES microcalorimeter operated in the AC bias configuration. For x-ray photons at 6keV the AC biased pixel shows a best energy resolution of 3.7eV, which is about a factor of 2 worse than the energy resolution observed in identical DC-biased pixels. To better understand the reasons of this discrepancy, we investigated the detector performance as a function of temperature, bias working point and applied magnetic field. A strong periodic dependence of the detector noise on the TES AC bias voltage is measured. We discuss the results in the framework of the recent weak-link behaviour observed inTES microcalorimeters.

Attention bias modification training under working memory load increases the magnitude of change in attentional bias.

PubMed

Clarke, Patrick J F; Branson, Sonya; Chen, Nigel T M; Van Bockstaele, Bram; Salemink, Elske; MacLeod, Colin; Notebaert, Lies

2017-12-01

Attention bias modification (ABM) procedures have shown promise as a therapeutic intervention, however current ABM procedures have proven inconsistent in their ability to reliably achieve the requisite change in attentional bias needed to produce emotional benefits. This highlights the need to better understand the precise task conditions that facilitate the intended change in attention bias in order to realise the therapeutic potential of ABM procedures. Based on the observation that change in attentional bias occurs largely outside conscious awareness, the aim of the current study was to determine if an ABM procedure delivered under conditions likely to preclude explicit awareness of the experimental contingency, via the addition of a working memory load, would contribute to greater change in attentional bias. Bias change was assessed among 122 participants in response to one of four ABM tasks given by the two experimental factors of ABM training procedure delivered either with or without working memory load, and training direction of either attend-negative or avoid-negative. Findings revealed that avoid-negative ABM procedure under working memory load resulted in significantly greater reductions in attentional bias compared to the equivalent no-load condition. The current findings will require replication with clinical samples to determine the utility of the current task for achieving emotional benefits. These present findings are consistent with the position that the addition of a working memory load may facilitate change in attentional bias in response to an ABM training procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Monitoring the aftermath of Flint drinking water contamination crisis: Another case of sampling bias?

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre

2017-07-15

The delay in reporting high levels of lead in Flint drinking water, following the city's switch to the Flint River as its water supply, was partially caused by the biased selection of sampling sites away from the lead pipe network. Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water, the State has been monitoring water lead levels (WLL) at selected "sentinel" sites. In a first phase that lasted two months, 739 residences were sampled, most of them bi-weekly, to determine the general health of the distribution system and to track temporal changes in lead levels. During the same period, water samples were also collected through a voluntary program whereby concerned citizens received free testing kits and conducted sampling on their own. State officials relied on the former data to demonstrate the steady improvement in water quality. A recent analysis of data collected by voluntary sampling revealed, however, an opposite trend with lead levels increasing over time. This paper looks at potential sampling bias to explain such differences. Although houses with higher WLL were more likely to be sampled repeatedly, voluntary sampling turned out to reproduce fairly well the main characteristics (i.e. presence of lead service lines (LSL), construction year) of Flint housing stock. State-controlled sampling was less representative; e.g., sentinel sites with LSL were mostly built between 1935 and 1950 in lower poverty areas, which might hamper our ability to disentangle the effects of LSL and premise plumbing (lead fixtures and pipes present within old houses) on WLL. Also, there was no sentinel site with LSL in two of the most impoverished wards, including where the percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels tripled following the switch in water supply. Correcting for sampling bias narrowed the gap between sampling programs, yet overall temporal trends are still opposite. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential shift in spatial bias over time depends on observers׳ initial bias: Observer subtypes, or regression to the mean?

PubMed

Newman, Daniel P; Loughnane, Gerard M; Abe, Rafael; Zoratti, Marco T R; Martins, Ana C P; van den Bogert, Petra C; Kelly, Simon P; O'Connell, Redmond G; Bellgrove, Mark A

2014-11-01

Healthy subjects typically exhibit a subtle bias of visuospatial attention favouring left space that is commonly termed 'pseudoneglect'. This bias is attenuated, or shifted rightwards, with decreasing alertness over time, consistent with theoretical models proposing that pseudoneglect is a result of the right hemisphere׳s dominance in regulating attention. Although this 'time-on-task effect' for spatial bias is observed when averaging across whole samples of healthy participants, Benwell, C. S. Y., Thut, G., Learmonth, G., & Harvey, M. (2013b). Spatial attention: differential shifts in pseudoneglect direction with time-on-task and initial bias support the idea of observer subtypes. Neuropsychologia, 51(13), 2747-2756 recently presented evidence that the direction and magnitude of bias exhibited by the participant early in the task (left biased, no bias, or right biased) were stable traits that predicted the direction of the subsequent time-on-task shift in spatial bias. That is, the spatial bias of participants who were initially left biased shifted in a rightward direction with time, whereas that of participants who were initially right biased shifted in a leftward direction. If valid, the data of Benwell et al. are potentially important and may demand a re-evaluation of current models of the neural networks governing spatial attention. Here we use two novel spatial attention tasks in an attempt to confirm the results of Benwell et al. We show that rather than being indicative of true participant subtypes, these data patterns are likely driven, at least in part, by 'regression towards the mean' arising from the analysis method employed. Although evidence supports the contention that trait-like individual differences in spatial bias exist within the healthy population, no clear evidence is yet available for participant/observer subtypes in the direction of time-on-task shift in spatial biases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Without Bias: A Guidebook for Nondiscriminatory Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pickens, Judy E., Ed.; And Others

This guidebook discusses ways to eliminate various types of discrimination from business communications. Separately authored chapters discuss eliminating racial and ethnic bias; eliminating sexual bias; achieving communication sensitive about handicaps of disabled persons; eliminating bias from visual media; eliminating bias from meetings,…

Neither biased sex ratio nor spatial segregation of the sexes in the subtropical dioecious tree Eurycorymbus cavaleriei (Sapindaceae).

PubMed

Gao, Puxin; Kang, Ming; Wang, Jing; Ye, Qigang; Huang, Hongwen

2009-06-01

Knowledge of sex ratio and spatial distribution of males and females of dioecious species is both of evolutionary interest and of crucial importance for biological conservation. Eurycorymbus cavaleriei, the only species in the genus Eurycorymbus (Sapindaceae), is a dioecious tree endemic to subtropical montane forest in South China. Sex ratios were investigated in 15 natural populations for the two defined ages (young and old). Spatial distribution of males and females was further studied in six large populations occurring in different habitats (fragmented and continuous). The study revealed a slight trend of male-biased sex ratio in both ages of E. cavaleriei, but sex ratio of most populations (13 out of 15) did not display statistically significant deviation from equality. All of the four significantly male-biased populations in the young class shifted to equality or even female-biased. The Ripley's K analysis of the distribution of males with respect to females suggested that individuals of the opposite sexes were more randomly distributed rather than spatially structured. These results suggest that the male-biased sex ratio in E. cavaleriei may result from the precocity of males and habitat heterogeneity. The sex ratio and the sex spatial distribution pattern are unlikely to constitute a serious threat to the survival of the species.

Investigating the efficacy of attention bias modification in reducing high spider fear: The role of individual differences in initial bias

PubMed Central

Fox, Elaine; Zougkou, Konstantina; Ashwin, Chris; Cahill, Shanna

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Attention Bias Modification (ABM) targets attention bias (AB) towards threat and is a potential therapeutic intervention for anxiety. The current study investigated whether initial AB (towards or away from spider images) influenced the effectiveness of ABM in spider fear. Methods AB was assessed with an attentional probe task consisting of spider and neutral images presented simultaneously followed by a probe in spider congruent or spider incongruent locations. Response time (RT) differences between spider and neutral trials > 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Toward’ threat. RT difference < - 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Away’ from threat, and a difference between −25 ms and +25 ms was considered ‘No Bias’. Participants were categorized into Initial Bias groups using pre-ABM AB scores calculated at the end of the study. 66 participants' (Bias Toward n = 27, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 21) were randomly assigned to ABM-active training designed to reduce or eliminate a bias toward threat and 61 (Bias Toward n = 17, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 26) to ABM-control. Results ABM-active had the largest impact on those demonstrating an initial Bias Towards spider images in terms of changing AB and reducing Spider Fear Vulnerability, with the Bias Away group experiencing least benefit from ABM. However, all Initial Bias groups benefited equally from active ABM in a Stress Task. Limitations Participants were high spider fearful but not formally diagnosed with a specific phobia. Therefore, results should be confirmed within a clinical population. Conclusions Individual differences in Initial Bias may be an important determinant of ABM efficacy. PMID:26060177

Spatial clustering of dark matter haloes: secondary bias, neighbour bias, and the influence of massive neighbours on halo properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcedo, Andrés N.; Maller, Ariyeh H.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Sinha, Manodeep; McBride, Cameron K.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Wechsler, Risa H.; Weinberg, David H.

2018-04-01

We explore the phenomenon commonly known as halo assembly bias, whereby dark matter haloes of the same mass are found to be more or less clustered when a second halo property is considered, for haloes in the mass range 3.7 × 1011-5.0 × 1013 h-1 M⊙. Using the Large Suite of Dark Matter Simulations (LasDamas) we consider nine commonly used halo properties and find that a clustering bias exists if haloes are binned by mass or by any other halo property. This secondary bias implies that no single halo property encompasses all the spatial clustering information of the halo population. The mean values of some halo properties depend on their halo's distance to a more massive neighbour. Halo samples selected by having high values of one of these properties therefore inherit a neighbour bias such that they are much more likely to be close to a much more massive neighbour. This neighbour bias largely accounts for the secondary bias seen in haloes binned by mass and split by concentration or age. However, haloes binned by other mass-like properties still show a secondary bias even when the neighbour bias is removed. The secondary bias of haloes selected by their spin behaves differently than that for other halo properties, suggesting that the origin of the spin bias is different than of other secondary biases.

Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

PubMed

Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

2016-01-01

The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Trends in dermatology practices and the implications for the workforce.

PubMed

Ehrlich, Alison; Kostecki, James; Olkaba, Helen

2017-10-01

The American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) practice profile surveys have been conducted for more than a decade to gauge trends in our workforce supply and demand. To update the trends and current workforce issues for the field of dermatology. The AAD Practice Profile Survey is sent by both e-mail and postal mail to a random sample of practicing dermatologists who are AAD members. Shifts are noted in the primary practice setting; fewer dermatologists are in solo practice and more are in group practices than in previous years. Teledermatology use trended upward from 7% to 11% between 2012 and 2014. The implementation of electronic health records increased from 51% in 2011 to 70% in 2014. There is potential for response bias and inaccurate self-reporting. Survey responses collected may not be representative of all geographic areas. The demand for dermatology services remains strong. Shifts in the practice setting may be related to increases in overhead costs that are partially associated with the implementation of technology-based medical records. Integration of electronic health records and utilization of telemedicine are increasing. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Did hydrographic sampling capture global and regional deep ocean heat content trends accurately between 1990-2010?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garry, Freya; McDonagh, Elaine; Blaker, Adam; Roberts, Chris; Desbruyères, Damien; King, Brian

2017-04-01

Estimates of heat content change in the deep oceans (below 2000 m) over the last thirty years are obtained from temperature measurements made by hydrographic survey ships. Cruises occupy the same tracks across an ocean basin approximately every 5+ years. Measurements may not be sufficiently frequent in time or space to allow accurate evaluation of total ocean heat content (OHC) and its rate of change. It is widely thought that additional deep ocean sampling will also aid understanding of the mechanisms for OHC change on annual to decadal timescales, including how OHC varies regionally under natural and anthropogenically forced climate change. Here a 0.25˚ ocean model is used to investigate the magnitude of uncertainties and biases that exist in estimates of deep ocean temperature change from hydrographic sections due to their infrequent timing and sparse spatial distribution during 1990 - 2010. Biases in the observational data may be due to lack of spatial coverage (not enough sections covering the basin), lack of data between occupations (typically 5-10 years apart) and due to occupations not closely spanning the time period of interest. Between 1990 - 2010, the modelled biases globally are comparatively small in the abyssal ocean below 3500 m although regionally certain biases in heat flux into the 4000 - 6000 m layer can be up to 0.05 Wm-2. Biases in the heat flux into the deep 2000 - 4000 m layer due to either temporal or spatial sampling uncertainties are typically much larger and can be over 0.1 Wm-2 across an ocean. Overall, 82% of the warming trend below 2000 m is captured by observational-style sampling in the model. However, at 2500 m (too deep for additional temperature information to be inferred from upper ocean Argo) less than two thirds of the magnitude of the global warming trend is obtained, and regionally large biases exist in the Atlantic, Southern and Indian Oceans, highlighting the need for widespread improved deep ocean temperature sampling

Publication Bias in Methodological Computational Research.

PubMed

Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Stierle, Veronika; Hapfelmeier, Alexander

2015-01-01

The problem of publication bias has long been discussed in research fields such as medicine. There is a consensus that publication bias is a reality and that solutions should be found to reduce it. In methodological computational research, including cancer informatics, publication bias may also be at work. The publication of negative research findings is certainly also a relevant issue, but has attracted very little attention to date. The present paper aims at providing a new formal framework to describe the notion of publication bias in the context of methodological computational research, facilitate and stimulate discussions on this topic, and increase awareness in the scientific community. We report an exemplary pilot study that aims at gaining experiences with the collection and analysis of information on unpublished research efforts with respect to publication bias, and we outline the encountered problems. Based on these experiences, we try to formalize the notion of publication bias.

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Symmetry as Bias: Rediscovering Special Relativity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowry, Michael R.

1992-01-01

This paper describes a rational reconstruction of Einstein's discovery of special relativity, validated through an implementation: the Erlanger program. Einstein's discovery of special relativity revolutionized both the content of physics and the research strategy used by theoretical physicists. This research strategy entails a mutual bootstrapping process between a hypothesis space for biases, defined through different postulated symmetries of the universe, and a hypothesis space for physical theories. The invariance principle mutually constrains these two spaces. The invariance principle enables detecting when an evolving physical theory becomes inconsistent with its bias, and also when the biases for theories describing different phenomena are inconsistent. Structural properties of the invariance principle facilitate generating a new bias when an inconsistency is detected. After a new bias is generated. this principle facilitates reformulating the old, inconsistent theory by treating the latter as a limiting approximation. The structural properties of the invariance principle can be suitably generalized to other types of biases to enable primal-dual learning.

Anti-Bias Education: Reflections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Derman-Sparks, Louise

2011-01-01

It is 30 years since NAEYC published "Anti-Bias Curriculum Tools for Empowering Young Children" (Derman-Sparks & ABC Task Force, 1989). Since then, anti-bias education concepts have become part of the early childhood education (ECE) narrative in the United States and many other countries. It has brought a fresh way of thinking about…

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2017-02-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term "bias due to incomplete matching" to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used.

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term “bias due to incomplete matching” to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used. PMID:25038071

Standard Errors for National Trends in International Large-Scale Assessments in the Case of Cross-National Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sachse, Karoline A.; Haag, Nicole

2017-01-01

Standard errors computed according to the operational practices of international large-scale assessment studies such as the Programme for International Student Assessment's (PISA) or the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) may be biased when cross-national differential item functioning (DIF) and item parameter drift are…

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Deterministic photon bias in speckle imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beletic, James W.

1989-01-01

A method for determining photo bias terms in speckle imaging is presented, and photon bias is shown to be a deterministic quantity that can be calculated without the use of the expectation operator. The quantities obtained are found to be identical to previous results. The present results have extended photon bias calculations to the important case of the bispectrum where photon events are assigned different weights, in which regime the bias is a frequency dependent complex quantity that must be calculated for each frame.

Spatial clustering of dark matter haloes: secondary bias, neighbour bias, and the influence of massive neighbours on halo properties

DOE PAGES

Salcedo, Andres N.; Maller, Ariyeh H.; Berlind, Andreas A.; ...

2018-01-15

Here, we explore the phenomenon commonly known as halo assembly bias, whereby dark matter haloes of the same mass are found to be more or less clustered when a second halo property is considered, for haloes in the mass range 3.7 × 10 11–5.0 × 10 13 h –1 M ⊙. Using the Large Suite of Dark Matter Simulations (LasDamas) we consider nine commonly used halo properties and find that a clustering bias exists if haloes are binned by mass or by any other halo property. This secondary bias implies that no single halo property encompasses all the spatial clusteringmore » information of the halo population. The mean values of some halo properties depend on their halo's distance to a more massive neighbour. Halo samples selected by having high values of one of these properties therefore inherit a neighbour bias such that they are much more likely to be close to a much more massive neighbour. This neighbour bias largely accounts for the secondary bias seen in haloes binned by mass and split by concentration or age. However, haloes binned by other mass-like properties still show a secondary bias even when the neighbour bias is removed. The secondary bias of haloes selected by their spin behaves differently than that for other halo properties, suggesting that the origin of the spin bias is different than of other secondary biases.« less

Spatial clustering of dark matter haloes: secondary bias, neighbour bias, and the influence of massive neighbours on halo properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salcedo, Andres N.; Maller, Ariyeh H.; Berlind, Andreas A.

Here, we explore the phenomenon commonly known as halo assembly bias, whereby dark matter haloes of the same mass are found to be more or less clustered when a second halo property is considered, for haloes in the mass range 3.7 × 10 11–5.0 × 10 13 h –1 M ⊙. Using the Large Suite of Dark Matter Simulations (LasDamas) we consider nine commonly used halo properties and find that a clustering bias exists if haloes are binned by mass or by any other halo property. This secondary bias implies that no single halo property encompasses all the spatial clusteringmore » information of the halo population. The mean values of some halo properties depend on their halo's distance to a more massive neighbour. Halo samples selected by having high values of one of these properties therefore inherit a neighbour bias such that they are much more likely to be close to a much more massive neighbour. This neighbour bias largely accounts for the secondary bias seen in haloes binned by mass and split by concentration or age. However, haloes binned by other mass-like properties still show a secondary bias even when the neighbour bias is removed. The secondary bias of haloes selected by their spin behaves differently than that for other halo properties, suggesting that the origin of the spin bias is different than of other secondary biases.« less

Bias in Mental Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Arthur R.

The first eight chapters of this book introduce the topic of test bias. The basic issues involved in criticisms of mental tests and arguments about test bias include: (1) variety of tests and test items; (2) scaling of scores and the form of the distribution of abilities in the population; (3) quantification of subpopulation differences; (4)…

Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers

PubMed Central

Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

2016-01-01

The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes. PMID:26765225

Gender Bias: Recent Research and Interventions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Jersey Research Bulletin, 1996

1996-01-01

This annotated bibliography lists 14 publications about recent research on gender bias and interventions to reduce gender bias in schools. The bibliography is divided into two sections: current research and intervention. The first includes descriptions of studies examining the following topics: gender bias in U.S. schools and its effects;…

Attentional Bias toward Fear-Related Stimuli

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waters, Allison M.; Lipp, Ottmar V.; Spence, Susan H.

2004-01-01

Research investigating anxiety-related attentional bias for emotional information in anxious and nonanxious children has been equivocal with regard to whether a bias for fear-related stimuli is unique to anxious children or is common to children in general. Moreover, recent cognitive theories have proposed that an attentional bias for objectively…

Attentional Bias for Exercise-Related Images

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berry, Tanya R.; Spence, John C.; Stolp, Sean M.

2011-01-01

This research examined attentional bias toward exercise-related images using a visual probe task. It was hypothesized that more-active participants would display attentional bias toward the exercise-related images. The results showed that men displayed attentional bias for the exercise images. There was a significant interaction of activity level…

Outcome-Reporting Bias in Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pigott, Therese D.; Valentine, Jeffrey C.; Polanin, Joshua R.; Williams, Ryan T.; Canada, Dericka D.

2013-01-01

Outcome-reporting bias occurs when primary studies do not include information about all outcomes measured in a study. When studies omit findings on important measures, efforts to synthesize the research using systematic review techniques will be biased and interpretations of individual studies will be incomplete. Outcome-reporting bias has been…

Implicit Physician Biases in Periviability Counseling.

PubMed

Shapiro, Natasha; Wachtel, Elena V; Bailey, Sean M; Espiritu, Michael M

2018-06-01

To assess whether neonatologists show implicit racial and/or socioeconomic biases and whether these are predictive of recommendations at extreme periviability. A nationwide survey using a clinical vignette of a woman in labor at 23 2/7 weeks of gestation asked physicians how likely they were to recommend intensive vs comfort care. Participants were randomized to 1 of 4 versions of the vignette in which racial and socioeconomic stimuli were varied, followed by 2 implicit association tests (IATs). IATs revealed implicit preferences favoring white (mean IAT score = 0.48, P < .001) and greater socioeconomic status (mean IAT score = 0.73, P < .001). Multivariable linear regression analysis showed that physicians with implicit bias toward greater socioeconomic status were more likely than those without bias to recommend comfort care when presented with a patient of high socioeconomic status (P = .037). No significant effect was seen for implicit racial bias. Building on previous demonstrations of unconscious racial and socioeconomic biases among physicians and their predictive validity, our results suggest that unconscious socioeconomic bias influences recommendations when counseling at the limits of viability. Physicians who display a negative socioeconomic bias are less likely to recommend resuscitation when counseling women of high socioeconomic status. The influence of implicit socioeconomic bias on recommendations at periviability may influence neonatal healthcare disparities and should be explored in future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar; Keramat, Afsaneh; Alavi, Nasrinossadat; Khosravi, Ahmad; Kousha, Ahmad; Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari; Darman, Mahboobeh; Partovipour, Elham; Chaman, Reza

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling.

PubMed

Biro, Peter A

2013-02-01

Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, 'hidden' trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.

BIAS: Bioinformatics Integrated Application Software.

PubMed

Finak, G; Godin, N; Hallett, M; Pepin, F; Rajabi, Z; Srivastava, V; Tang, Z

2005-04-15

We introduce a development platform especially tailored to Bioinformatics research and software development. BIAS (Bioinformatics Integrated Application Software) provides the tools necessary for carrying out integrative Bioinformatics research requiring multiple datasets and analysis tools. It follows an object-relational strategy for providing persistent objects, allows third-party tools to be easily incorporated within the system and supports standards and data-exchange protocols common to Bioinformatics. BIAS is an OpenSource project and is freely available to all interested users at http://www.mcb.mcgill.ca/~bias/. This website also contains a paper containing a more detailed description of BIAS and a sample implementation of a Bayesian network approach for the simultaneous prediction of gene regulation events and of mRNA expression from combinations of gene regulation events. hallett@mcb.mcgill.ca.

Collection Development and the Psychology of Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Brian

2012-01-01

The library literature addressing the role of bias in collection development emphasizes a philosophical approach. It is based on the notion that bias can be controlled by the conscious act of believing in certain values and adhering to a code of ethics. It largely ignores the psychological research on bias, which suggests that bias is a more…

Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

2016-06-21

When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

Adaptive Variable Bias Magnetic Bearing Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dexter; Brown, Gerald V.; Inman, Daniel J.

1998-01-01

Most magnetic bearing control schemes use a bias current with a superimposed control current to linearize the relationship between the control current and the force it delivers. With the existence of the bias current, even in no load conditions, there is always some power consumption. In aerospace applications, power consumption becomes an important concern. In response to this concern, an alternative magnetic bearing control method, called Adaptive Variable Bias Control (AVBC), has been developed and its performance examined. The AVBC operates primarily as a proportional-derivative controller with a relatively slow, bias current dependent, time-varying gain. The AVBC is shown to reduce electrical power loss, be nominally stable, and provide control performance similar to conventional bias control. Analytical, computer simulation, and experimental results are presented in this paper.

Pandemic influenza A virus codon usage revisited: biases, adaptation and implications for vaccine strain development

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Influenza A virus (IAV) is a member of the family Orthomyxoviridae and contains eight segments of a single-stranded RNA genome with negative polarity. The first influenza pandemic of this century was declared in April of 2009, with the emergence of a novel H1N1 IAV strain (H1N1pdm) in Mexico and USA. Understanding the extent and causes of biases in codon usage is essential to the understanding of viral evolution. A comprehensive study to investigate the effect of selection pressure imposed by the human host on the codon usage of an emerging, pandemic IAV strain and the trends in viral codon usage involved over the pandemic time period is much needed. Results We performed a comprehensive codon usage analysis of 310 IAV strains from the pandemic of 2009. Highly biased codon usage for Ala, Arg, Pro, Thr and Ser were found. Codon usage is strongly influenced by underlying biases in base composition. When correspondence analysis (COA) on relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) is applied, the distribution of IAV ORFs in the plane defined by the first two major dimensional factors showed that different strains are located at different places, suggesting that IAV codon usage also reflects an evolutionary process. Conclusions A general association between codon usage bias, base composition and poor adaptation of the virus to the respective host tRNA pool, suggests that mutational pressure is the main force shaping H1N1 pdm IAV codon usage. A dynamic process is observed in the variation of codon usage of the strains enrolled in these studies. These results suggest a balance of mutational bias and natural selection, which allow the virus to explore and re-adapt its codon usage to different environments. Recoding of IAV taking into account codon bias, base composition and adaptation to host tRNA may provide important clues to develop new and appropriate vaccines. PMID:23134595

The relative trending accuracy of noninvasive continuous hemoglobin monitoring during hemodialysis in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Yamada, Hiroshi; Saeki, Minako; Ito, Junko; Kawada, Kazuhiro; Higurashi, Aya; Funakoshi, Hiromi; Takeda, Kohji

2015-02-01

The pulse CO-Oximeter (Radical-7; Masimo Corp., Irvine, CA) is a multi-wavelength spectrophotometric method for noninvasive continuous monitoring of hemoglobin (SpHb). Because evaluating the relative change in blood volume (ΔBV) is crucial to avoid hypovolemia and hypotension during hemodialysis, it would be of great clinical benefit if ΔBV could be estimated by measurement of SpHb during hemodialysis. The capability of the pulse CO-Oximeter to monitor ΔBV depends on the relative trending accuracy of SpHb. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the relative trending accuracy of SpHb by the pulse CO-Oximeter using Crit-Line as a reference device. In 12 patients who received hemodialysis (total 22 sessions) in the intensive care unit, ΔBV was determined from SpHb. Relative changes in blood volume determined from SpHb were calculated according to the equation: ΔBV(SpHb)=[starting SpHb]/[current SpHb] - 1. The absolute values of SpHb and hematocrit measured by Crit-Line (CL-Hct) showed poor correlation. On the contrary, linear regression analysis showed good correlation between ΔBV(SpHb) and the relative change in blood volume measured by Crit-Line [ΔBV(CL-Hct)] (r=0.83; P≤0.001). Bland-Altman analysis also revealed good agreement between ΔBV(SpHb) and ΔBV(CL-Hct) (bias, -0.77%; precision, 3.41%). Polar plot analysis revealed good relative trending accuracy of SpHb with an angular bias of 4.1° and radial limits of agreement of 24.4° (upper) and -16.2° (lower). The results of the current study indicate that SpHb measurement with the pulse CO-Oximeter has good relative trending accuracy.

Political bias is tenacious.

PubMed

Ditto, Peter H; Wojcik, Sean P; Chen, Eric Evan; Grady, Rebecca Hofstein; Ringel, Megan M

2015-01-01

Duarte et al. are right to worry about political bias in social psychology but they underestimate the ease of correcting it. Both liberals and conservatives show partisan bias that often worsens with cognitive sophistication. More non-liberals in social psychology is unlikely to speed our convergence upon the truth, although it may broaden the questions we ask and the data we collect.

How we categorize objects is related to how we remember them: The shape bias as a memory bias.

PubMed

Vlach, Haley A

2016-12-01

The "shape bias" describes the phenomenon that, after a certain point in development, children and adults generalize object categories based on shape to a greater degree than other perceptual features. The focus of research on the shape bias has been to examine the types of information that learners attend to in one moment in time. The current work takes a different approach by examining whether learners' categorical biases are related to their retention of information across time. In three experiments, children's (N=72) and adults' (N=240) memory performance for features of objects was examined in relation to their categorical biases. The results of these experiments demonstrated that the number of shape matches chosen during the shape bias task significantly predicted shape memory. Moreover, children and adults with a shape bias were more likely to remember the shape of objects than the color and size of objects. Taken together, this work suggests that the development of a shape bias may engender better memory for shape information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing attentional biases with stuttering.

PubMed

Lowe, Robyn; Menzies, Ross; Packman, Ann; O'Brian, Sue; Jones, Mark; Onslow, Mark

2016-01-01

Many adults who stutter presenting for speech treatment experience social anxiety disorder. The presence of mental health disorders in adults who stutter has been implicated in a failure to maintain speech treatment benefits. Contemporary theories of social anxiety disorder propose that the condition is maintained by negative cognitions and information processing biases. Consistent with cognitive theories, the probe detection task has shown that social anxiety is associated with an attentional bias to avoid social information. This information processing bias is suggested to be involved in maintaining anxiety. Evidence is emerging for information processing biases being involved with stuttering. This study investigated information processing in adults who stutter using the probe detection task. Information processing biases have been implicated in anxiety maintenance in social anxiety disorder and therefore may have implications for the assessment and treatment of stuttering. It was hypothesized that stuttering participants compared with control participants would display an attentional bias to avoid attending to social information. Twenty-three adults who stutter and 23 controls completed a probe detection task in which they were presented with pairs of photographs: a face displaying an emotional expression-positive, negative or neutral-and an everyday household object. All participants were subjected to a mild social threat induction being told they would speak to a small group of people on completion of the task. The stuttering group scored significantly higher than controls for trait anxiety, but did not differ from controls on measures of social anxiety. Non-socially anxious adults who stutter did not display an attentional bias to avoid looking at photographs of faces relative to everyday objects. Higher scores on trait anxiety were positively correlated with attention towards photographs of negative faces. Attentional biases as assessed by the probe

Gender Bias Communication in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orick, Lisa M.

This document examines the concept of gender bias communication in the classroom and how educators can avoid it. Gender bias communication is a set of behaviors that reflect bias or stereotyping, but which is not against the law. In the classroom, a teacher may treat male and female students differently without even realizing it. For instance, a…

How does the cosmic web impact assembly bias?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musso, M.; Cadiou, C.; Pichon, C.; Codis, S.; Kraljic, K.; Dubois, Y.

2018-06-01

The mass, accretion rate, and formation time of dark matter haloes near protofilaments (identified as saddle points of the potential) are analytically predicted using a conditional version of the excursion set approach in its so-called upcrossing approximation. The model predicts that at fixed mass, mass accretion rate and formation time vary with orientation and distance from the saddle, demonstrating that assembly bias is indeed influenced by the tides imposed by the cosmic web. Starved, early-forming haloes of smaller mass lie preferentially along the main axis of filaments, while more massive and younger haloes are found closer to the nodes. Distinct gradients for distinct tracers such as typical mass and accretion rate occur because the saddle condition is anisotropic, and because the statistics of these observables depend on both the conditional means and their covariances. The theory is extended to other critical points of the potential field. The response of the mass function to variations of the matter density field (the so-called large-scale bias) is computed, and its trend with accretion rate is shown to invert along the filament. The signature of this model should correspond at low redshift to an excess of reddened galactic hosts at fixed mass along preferred directions, as recently reported in spectroscopic and photometric surveys and in hydrodynamical simulations. The anisotropy of the cosmic web emerges therefore as a significant ingredient to describe jointly the dynamics and physics of galaxies, e.g. in the context of intrinsic alignments or morphological diversity.

Professional Culture and Climate: Addressing Unconscious Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knezek, Patricia

2016-10-01

Unconscious bias reflects expectations or stereotypes that influence our judgments of others (regardless of our own group). Everyone has unconscious biases. The end result of unconscious bias can be an accumulation of advantage or disadvantage that impacts the long term career success of individuals, depending on which biases they are subject to. In order to foster a professional culture and climate, being aware of these unconscious biases and mitigating against them is a first step. This is particularly important when judgements are needed, such as in cases for recruitment, choice of speakers for conferences, and even reviewing papers submitted for publication. This presentation will cover how unconscious bias manifests itself, what evidence exists to demonstrate it exists, and ways it can be addressed.

Parametric Characterization of TES Detectors Under DC Bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiao, Meng P.; Smith, Stephen James; Kilbourne, Caroline A.; Adams, Joseph S.; Bandler, Simon R.; Betancourt-Martinez, Gabriele L.; Chervenak, James A.; Datesman, Aaron M.; Eckart, Megan E.; Ewin, Audrey J.;

Ranking Bias in Association Studies

PubMed Central

Jeffries, Neal O.

2009-01-01

Background It is widely appreciated that genomewide association studies often yield overestimates of the association of a marker with disease when attention focuses upon the marker showing the strongest relationship. For example, in a case-control setting the largest (in absolute value) estimated odds ratio has been found to typically overstate the association as measured in a second, independent set of data. The most common reason given for this observation is that the choice of the most extreme test statistic is often conditional upon first observing a significant p value associated with the marker. A second, less appreciated reason is described here. Under common circumstances it is the multiple testing of many markers and subsequent focus upon those with most extreme test statistics (i.e. highly ranked results) that leads to bias in the estimated effect sizes. Conclusions This bias, termed ranking bias, is separate from that arising from conditioning on a significant p value and may often be a more important factor in generating bias. An analytic description of this bias, simulations demonstrating its extent, and identification of some factors leading to its exacerbation are presented. PMID:19172085

A method for estimation of bias and variability of continuous gas monitor data: application to carbon monoxide monitor accuracy.

PubMed

Shulman, Stanley A; Smith, Jerome P

2002-01-01

A method is presented for the evaluation of the bias, variability, and accuracy of gas monitors. This method is based on using the parameters for the fitted response curves of the monitors. Thereby, variability between calibrations, between dates within each calibration period, and between different units can be evaluated at several different standard concentrations. By combining variability information with bias information, accuracy can be assessed. An example using carbon monoxide monitor data is provided. Although the most general statistical software required for these tasks is not available on a spreadsheet, when the same number of dates in a calibration period are evaluated for each monitor unit, the calculations can be done on a spreadsheet. An example of such calculations, together with the formulas needed for their implementation, is provided. In addition, the methods can be extended by use of appropriate statistical models and software to evaluate monitor trends within calibration periods, as well as consider the effects of other variables, such as humidity and temperature, on monitor variability and bias.

Detecting trends in tree growth: not so simple.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Emanuel; Phillips, Oliver L; Prior, Lynda D

2013-01-01

Tree biomass influences biogeochemical cycles, climate, and biodiversity across local to global scales. Understanding the environmental control of tree biomass demands consideration of the drivers of individual tree growth over their lifespan. This can be achieved by studies of tree growth in permanent sample plots (prospective studies) and tree ring analyses (retrospective studies). However, identification of growth trends and attribution of their drivers demands statistical control of the axiomatic co-variation of tree size and age, and avoiding sampling biases at the stand, forest, and regional scales. Tracking and predicting the effects of environmental change on tree biomass requires well-designed studies that address the issues that we have reviewed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationships fade with time: a meta-analysis of temporal trends in publication in ecology and evolution.

PubMed Central

Jennions, Michael D; Møller, Anders P

2002-01-01

Both significant positive and negative relationships between the magnitude of research findings (their 'effect size') and their year of publication have been reported in a few areas of biology. These trends have been attributed to Kuhnian paradigm shifts, scientific fads and bias in the choice of study systems. Here we test whether or not these isolated cases reflect a more general trend. We examined the relationship using effect sizes extracted from 44 peer-reviewed meta-analyses covering a wide range of topics in ecological and evolutionary biology. On average, there was a small but significant decline in effect size with year of publication. For the original empirical studies there was also a significant decrease in effect size as sample size increased. However, the effect of year of publication remained even after we controlled for sampling effort. Although these results have several possible explanations, it is suggested that a publication bias against non-significant or weaker findings offers the most parsimonious explanation. As in the medical sciences, non-significant results may take longer to publish and studies with both small sample sizes and non-significant results may be less likely to be published. PMID:11788035

Sources of bias in a dietary survey of children.

PubMed

Berg, C; Jonsson, I; Conner, M T; Lissner, L

1998-09-01

To compare non-responders and responders to a dietary survey with respect to demographic variables and intention to choose selected breakfast foods, and to examine if there was any systematic change in number of food items reported during a 7 d recording period. Cross-sectional survey. Mölndal, Sweden. All pupils in 5th, 7th and 9th grades in the municipality were asked to complete a questionnaire during school hours. All those present (n = 1584, 92% of total) answered questions about lifestyle factors and about intentions, attitudes and beliefs concerning high-fibre bread and milk with varying fat content. All subjects in the initial sample were asked to fill in a 7 d record of food consumed. Acceptable food records were completed by 69% of the initial participants. Subjects not completing the food record differed significantly from participants with respect to demographic, lifestyle and dietary factors. Dropout was more common among those who reported not usually eating breakfast and among those intending to drink whole milk for breakfast. A decline in reported food items during the recording period was also observed. Two sources of bias were observed here, one indicating significant differences between non-participants and participants, the other suggesting the presence of a time-dependent trend in number of recorded foods. It is likely such biases are present in other dietary surveys involving schoolchildren, and should be taken into consideration in the design, analysis and interpretation of such studies.

Recall bias in the assessment of exposure to mobile phones.

PubMed

Vrijheid, Martine; Armstrong, Bruce K; Bédard, Daniel; Brown, Julianne; Deltour, Isabelle; Iavarone, Ivano; Krewski, Daniel; Lagorio, Susanna; Moore, Stephen; Richardson, Lesley; Giles, Graham G; McBride, Mary; Parent, Marie-Elise; Siemiatycki, Jack; Cardis, Elisabeth

2009-05-01

Most studies of mobile phone use are case-control studies that rely on participants' reports of past phone use for their exposure assessment. Differential errors in recalled phone use are a major concern in such studies. INTERPHONE, a multinational case-control study of brain tumour risk and mobile phone use, included validation studies to quantify such errors and evaluate the potential for recall bias. Mobile phone records of 212 cases and 296 controls were collected from network operators in three INTERPHONE countries over an average of 2 years, and compared with mobile phone use reported at interview. The ratio of reported to recorded phone use was analysed as measure of agreement. Mean ratios were virtually the same for cases and controls: both underestimated number of calls by a factor of 0.81 and overestimated call duration by a factor of 1.4. For cases, but not controls, ratios increased with increasing time before the interview; however, these trends were based on few subjects with long-term data. Ratios increased by level of use. Random recall errors were large. In conclusion, there was little evidence for differential recall errors overall or in recent time periods. However, apparent overestimation by cases in more distant time periods could cause positive bias in estimates of disease risk associated with mobile phone use.

The immitigable nature of assembly bias: the impact of halo definition on assembly bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarreal, Antonio S.; Zentner, Andrew R.; Mao, Yao-Yuan; Purcell, Chris W.; van den Bosch, Frank C.; Diemer, Benedikt; Lange, Johannes U.; Wang, Kuan; Campbell, Duncan

2017-11-01

Dark matter halo clustering depends not only on halo mass, but also on other properties such as concentration and shape. This phenomenon is known broadly as assembly bias. We explore the dependence of assembly bias on halo definition, parametrized by spherical overdensity parameter, Δ. We summarize the strength of concentration-, shape-, and spin-dependent halo clustering as a function of halo mass and halo definition. Concentration-dependent clustering depends strongly on mass at all Δ. For conventional halo definitions (Δ ∼ 200 - 600 m), concentration-dependent clustering at low mass is driven by a population of haloes that is altered through interactions with neighbouring haloes. Concentration-dependent clustering can be greatly reduced through a mass-dependent halo definition with Δ ∼ 20 - 40 m for haloes with M200 m ≲ 1012 h-1M⊙. Smaller Δ implies larger radii and mitigates assembly bias at low mass by subsuming altered, so-called backsplash haloes into now larger host haloes. At higher masses (M200 m ≳ 1013 h-1M⊙) larger overdensities, Δ ≳ 600 m, are necessary. Shape- and spin-dependent clustering are significant for all halo definitions that we explore and exhibit a relatively weaker mass dependence. Generally, both the strength and the sense of assembly bias depend on halo definition, varying significantly even among common definitions. We identify no halo definition that mitigates all manifestations of assembly bias. A halo definition that mitigates assembly bias based on one halo property (e.g. concentration) must be mass dependent. The halo definitions that best mitigate concentration-dependent halo clustering do not coincide with the expected average splashback radii at fixed halo mass.

Is racial bias malleable? Whites' lay theories of racial bias predict divergent strategies for interracial interactions.

PubMed

Neel, Rebecca; Shapiro, Jenessa R

2012-07-01

How do Whites approach interracial interactions? We argue that a previously unexamined factor-beliefs about the malleability of racial bias-guides Whites' strategies for difficult interracial interactions. We predicted and found that those who believe racial bias is malleable favor learning-oriented strategies such as taking the other person's perspective and trying to learn why an interaction is challenging, whereas those who believe racial bias is fixed favor performance-oriented strategies such as overcompensating in the interaction and trying to end the interaction as quickly as possible. Four studies support these predictions. Whether measured (Studies 1, 3, and 4) or manipulated (Study 2), beliefs that racial bias is fixed versus malleable yielded these divergent strategies for difficult interracial interactions. Furthermore, beliefs about the malleability of racial bias are distinct from related constructs (e.g., prejudice and motivations to respond without prejudice; Studies 1, 3, and 4) and influence self-reported (Studies 1-3) and actual (Study 4) strategies in imagined (Studies 1-2) and real (Studies 3-4) interracial interactions. Together, these findings demonstrate that beliefs about the malleability of racial bias influence Whites' approaches to and strategies within interracial interactions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Normalization Approaches for Removing Systematic Biases Associated with Mass Spectrometry and Label-Free Proteomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Callister, Stephen J.; Barry, Richard C.; Adkins, Joshua N.

2006-02-01

Central tendency, linear regression, locally weighted regression, and quantile techniques were investigated for normalization of peptide abundance measurements obtained from high-throughput liquid chromatography-Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LC-FTICR MS). Arbitrary abundances of peptides were obtained from three sample sets, including a standard protein sample, two Deinococcus radiodurans samples taken from different growth phases, and two mouse striatum samples from control and methamphetamine-stressed mice (strain C57BL/6). The selected normalization techniques were evaluated in both the absence and presence of biological variability by estimating extraneous variability prior to and following normalization. Prior to normalization, replicate runs from each sample setmore » were observed to be statistically different, while following normalization replicate runs were no longer statistically different. Although all techniques reduced systematic bias, assigned ranks among the techniques revealed significant trends. For most LC-FTICR MS analyses, linear regression normalization ranked either first or second among the four techniques, suggesting that this technique was more generally suitable for reducing systematic biases.« less

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

A pilot study of attention bias subtypes: examining their relation to cognitive bias and their change following cognitive behavioral therapy.

PubMed

Calamaras, Martha R; Tone, Erin B; Anderson, Page L

2012-07-01

The present investigation examined (a) whether a clinical sample of individuals with social anxiety disorder (SAD) comprises two distinct groups based on attention bias for social threat (vigilant, avoidant), (b) the relation between attention bias and cognitive bias, specifically estimates of the probability that negative social events will occur (probability bias), and (c) specific changes in attention bias following cognitive behavioral therapy for social anxiety. Participants were 24 individuals (nfemale = 7, nmale = 17; mage = 41) who met diagnostic criteria for SAD and sought treatment for fear of public speaking. Hypotheses were tested using t tests, linear regression analyses, and a mixed design analysis of variance. Results yielded evidence of 2 pretreatment groups (vigilant and avoidant). There was a significant positive correlation between vigilance for (but not avoidance of) threat and probability bias (R = .561, p < .05). After 8 weeks of treatment, the direction of change in attention bias differed between groups, such that the vigilant group became less vigilant and the avoidant group became less avoidant, with the avoidant group showing a significant change in attention bias from pretreatment to posttreatment. These findings provide very preliminary support for the idea that individuals with SAD may differ according to type attention bias, avoidant or vigilant, as these biases changed in different ways following cognitive-behavioral therapy for SAD. Further research is needed to replicate and extend these findings in order to evaluate whether SAD comprises subgroups of attentional biases. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS). Measuring non-linear galaxy bias at z ~ 0.8

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Porto, C.; Branchini, E.; Bel, J.; Marulli, F.; Bolzonella, M.; Cucciati, O.; de la Torre, S.; Granett, B. R.; Guzzo, L.; Marinoni, C.; Moscardini, L.; Abbas, U.; Adami, C.; Arnouts, S.; Bottini, D.; Cappi, A.; Coupon, J.; Davidzon, I.; De Lucia, G.; Fritz, A.; Franzetti, P.; Fumana, M.; Garilli, B.; Ilbert, O.; Iovino, A.; Krywult, J.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Maccagni, D.; Małek, K.; McCracken, H. J.; Paioro, L.; Polletta, M.; Pollo, A.; Scodeggio, M.; Tasca, L. A. M.; Tojeiro, R.; Vergani, D.; Zanichelli, A.; Burden, A.; Marchetti, A.; Martizzi, D.; Mellier, Y.; Nichol, R. C.; Peacock, J. A.; Percival, W. J.; Viel, M.; Wolk, M.; Zamorani, G.

2016-10-01

Aims: We use the first release of the VImos Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey of galaxies (VIPERS) of ~50 000 objects to measure the biasing relation between galaxies and mass in the redshift range z = [ 0.5,1.1 ]. Methods: We estimate the 1-point distribution function [PDF] of VIPERS galaxies from counts in cells and, assuming a model for the mass PDF, we infer their mean bias relation. The reconstruction of the bias relation is performed through a novel method that accounts for Poisson noise, redshift distortions, inhomogeneous sky coverage. and other selection effects. With this procedure we constrain galaxy bias and its deviations from linearity down to scales as small as 4 h-1 Mpc and out to z = 1.1. Results: We detect small (up to 2%) but statistically significant (up to 3σ) deviations from linear bias. The mean biasing function is close to linear in regions above the mean density. The mean slope of the biasing relation is a proxy to the linear bias parameter. This slope increases with luminosity, which is in agreement with results of previous analyses. We detect a strong bias evolution only for z> 0.9, which is in agreement with some, but not all, previous studies. We also detect a significant increase of the bias with the scale, from 4 to 8 h-1 Mpc , now seen for the first time out to z = 1. The amplitude of non-linearity depends on redshift, luminosity, and scale, but no clear trend is detected. Owing to the large cosmic volume probed by VIPERS, we find that the mismatch between the previous estimates of bias at z ~ 1 from zCOSMOS and VVDS-Deep galaxy samples is fully accounted for by cosmic variance. Conclusions: The results of our work confirm the importance of going beyond the over-simplistic linear bias hypothesis showing that non-linearities can be accurately measured through the applications of the appropriate statistical tools to existing datasets like VIPERS. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Paranal, Chile

Attention bias to emotional information in children as a function of maternal emotional disorders and maternal attention biases.

PubMed

Waters, Allison M; Forrest, Kylee; Peters, Rosie-Mae; Bradley, Brendan P; Mogg, Karin

2015-03-01

Children of parents with emotional disorders have an increased risk for developing anxiety and depressive disorders. Yet the mechanisms that contribute to this increased risk are poorly understood. The present study aimed to examine attention biases in children as a function of maternal lifetime emotional disorders and maternal attention biases. There were 134 participants, including 38 high-risk children, and their mothers who had lifetime emotional disorders; and 29 low-risk children, and their mothers without lifetime emotional disorders. Mothers and children completed a visual probe task with emotional face pairs presented for 500 ms. Attention bias in children did not significantly differ solely as a function of whether or not their mothers had lifetime emotional disorders. However, attention bias in high-risk children was significantly related to their mothers' attention bias. Specifically, children of mothers with lifetime emotional disorders showed a greater negative attention bias if their mothers had a greater tendency to direct attention away from positive information. This study was cross-sectional in nature, and therefore unable to assess long-term predictive effects. Also, just one exposure duration of 500 ms was utilised. Attention bias for negative information is greater in offspring of mothers who have lifetime emotional disorders and a reduced positive bias, which could be a risk marker for the development of emotional disorders in children.

Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateer, C. L.; Dütsch, H. U.; Staehelin, J.; Deluisi, J. J.

1996-07-01

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long-term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time-dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair-weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time-dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers

The Role of Response Bias in Perceptual Learning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced making a basic auditory judgment (yes/no amplitude-modulation detection or forced-choice frequency/amplitude discrimination) over multiple days. With all tasks, bias was present initially, but decreased with practice. Notably, this was the case even on supposedly “bias-free,” 2-alternative forced-choice, tasks. In those tasks, observers did not favor the same response throughout (stationary bias), but did favor whichever response had been correct on previous trials (nonstationary bias). Means of correcting for bias are described. When applied, these showed that at least 13% of perceptual learning on a forced-choice task was due to reduction in bias. In other situations, changes in bias were shown to obscure the true extent of learning, with changes in estimated sensitivity increasing once bias was corrected for. The possible causes of bias and the implications for our understanding of perceptual learning are discussed. PMID:25867609

Biased four-point probe resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Vazquez, Valentin

2017-11-01

The implications of switching the current polarity in a four-point probe resistance measurement are presented. We demonstrate that, during the inversion of the applied current, any change in the voltage V produced by a continuous drop of the sample temperature T will induce a bias in the temperature-dependent DC resistance. The analytical expression for the bias is deduced and written in terms of the variations of the measured voltages with respect to T and by the variations of T with respect to time t. Experimental data measured on a superconducting Nb thin film confirm that the bias of the normal-state resistance monotonically increases with the cooling rate dT/dt while keeping fixed dV/dT; on the other hand, the bias increases with dV/dT, reaching values up to 13% with respect to the unbiased resistance obtained at room temperature.

Cognitive Biases and Nonverbal Cue Availability in Detecting Deception

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgoon, Judee K.; Blair, J. Pete; Strom, Renee E.

2008-01-01

In potentially deceptive situations, people rely on mental shortcuts to help process information. These heuristic judgments are often biased and result in inaccurate assessments of sender veracity. Four such biases--truth bias, visual bias, demeanor bias, and expectancy violation bias--were examined in a judgment experiment that varied nonverbal…

Social Desirability Bias Against Admitting Anger: Bias in the Test-Taker or Bias in the Test?

PubMed

Fernandez, Ephrem; Woldgabreal, Yilma; Guharajan, Deepan; Day, Andrew; Kiageri, Vasiliki; Ramtahal, Nirvana

2018-05-09

The veracity of self-report is often questioned, especially in anger, which is particularly susceptible to social desirability bias (SDB). However, could tests of SDB be themselves susceptible to bias? This study aimed to replicate the inverse correlation between a common test of SDB and a test of anger, to deconstruct this relationship according to anger-related versus non-anger-related items, and to reevaluate factor structure and reliability of the SDB test. More than 200 students were administered the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale Short Version [M-C1(10)] and the Anger Parameters Scale (APS). Results confirmed that anger and SDB scores were significantly and inversely correlated. This intercorrelation became nonsignificant when the 4 anger-related items were omitted from the M-C1(10). Confirmatory factor analyses showed excellent fit for a model comprising anger items of the M-C1(10) but not for models of the entire instrument or nonanger items. The first model also attained high internal consistency. Thus, the significant negative correlation between anger and SDB is attributable to 4 M-C1(10) anger items, for which low ratings are automatically scored as high SDB; this stems from a tenuous assumption that low anger reports are invariably biased. The SDB test risks false positives of faking good and should be used with caution.

How to lose weight bias fast! Evaluating a brief anti-weight bias intervention.

PubMed

Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Barlow, Fiona Kate

2011-11-01

Although experiencing weight bias is associated with poor physical and psychological health, health professionals often stigmatize overweight and obese clients. The objective of this study was to evaluate a brief educational intervention that aimed to reduce weight bias among Australian pre-service health students by challenging beliefs about the controllability of weight. Non-equivalent group comparison trial. Undergraduate psychology students were assigned to an intervention (n= 30), control (n= 35), or comparison (n= 20) condition. The intervention condition received a lecture on obesity, weight bias, and the multiple determinants of weight; the comparison condition received a lecture on obesity and the behavioural determinants of weight; and the control condition received no lecture. Beliefs about the controllability of weight and attitudes towards overweight and obese people were assessed 1 week pre-intervention, immediately post-intervention, and 3 weeks post-intervention. After receiving the lecture, participants in the intervention group were less likely to believe that weight is solely within individual control and were also less likely to hold negative attitudes towards overweight and obese people and rate them as unattractive. These changes were maintained 3 weeks post-intervention. There were no such changes in the control or comparison groups. Disparagement of overweight and obese peoples' social character increased over time for participants in the control condition but did not change in the comparison or intervention groups. This study provides evidence that brief, education-based anti-weight bias interventions show success in challenging weight controllability beliefs and reducing weight bias among pre-service health students. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

The evolution of social learning rules: payoff-biased and frequency-dependent biased transmission.

PubMed

Kendal, Jeremy; Giraldeau, Luc-Alain; Laland, Kevin

2009-09-21

Humans and other animals do not use social learning indiscriminately, rather, natural selection has favoured the evolution of social learning rules that make selective use of social learning to acquire relevant information in a changing environment. We present a gene-culture coevolutionary analysis of a small selection of such rules (unbiased social learning, payoff-biased social learning and frequency-dependent biased social learning, including conformism and anti-conformism) in a population of asocial learners where the environment is subject to a constant probability of change to a novel state. We define conditions under which each rule evolves to a genetically polymorphic equilibrium. We find that payoff-biased social learning may evolve under high levels of environmental variation if the fitness benefit associated with the acquired behaviour is either high or low but not of intermediate value. In contrast, both conformist and anti-conformist biases can become fixed when environment variation is low, whereupon the mean fitness in the population is higher than for a population of asocial learners. Our examination of the population dynamics reveals stable limit cycles under conformist and anti-conformist biases and some highly complex dynamics including chaos. Anti-conformists can out-compete conformists when conditions favour a low equilibrium frequency of the learned behaviour. We conclude that evolution, punctuated by the repeated successful invasion of different social learning rules, should continuously favour a reduction in the equilibrium frequency of asocial learning, and propose that, among competing social learning rules, the dominant rule will be the one that can persist with the lowest frequency of asocial learning.

Study of the Dependency on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gottardi, L.; Bruijn, M.; denHartog, R.; Hoevers, H.; deKorte, P.; vanderKuur, J.; Linderman, M.; Adams, J.; Bailey, C.; Bandler, S.;

Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

PubMed

Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

2016-01-01

There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology.

Change in bias in self-reported body mass index in Australia between 1995 and 2008 and the evaluation of correction equations.

PubMed

Hayes, Alison J; Clarke, Philip M; Lung, Tom Wc

2011-09-25

Many studies have documented the bias in body mass index (BMI) determined from self-reported data on height and weight, but few have examined the change in bias over time. Using data from large, nationally-representative population health surveys, we examined change in bias in height and weight reporting among Australian adults between 1995 and 2008. Our study dataset included 9,635 men and women in 1995 and 9,141 in 2007-2008. We investigated the determinants of the bias and derived correction equations using 2007-2008 data, which can be applied when only self-reported anthropometric data are available. In 1995, self-reported BMI (derived from height and weight) was 1.2 units (men) and 1.4 units (women) lower than measured BMI. In 2007-2008, there was still underreporting, but the amount had declined to 0.6 units (men) and 0.7 units (women) below measured BMI. The major determinants of reporting error in 2007-2008 were age, sex, measured BMI, and education of the respondent. Correction equations for height and weight derived from 2007-2008 data and applied to self-reported data were able to adjust for the bias and were accurate across all age and sex strata. The diminishing reporting bias in BMI in Australia means that correction equations derived from 2007-2008 data may not be transferable to earlier self-reported data. Second, predictions of future overweight and obesity in Australia based on trends in self-reported information are likely to be inaccurate, as the change in reporting bias will affect the apparent increase in self-reported obesity prevalence.

Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.

2008-01-01

Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

Increasingly minimal bias routing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bataineh, Abdulla; Court, Thomas; Roweth, Duncan

2017-02-21

A system and algorithm configured to generate diversity at the traffic source so that packets are uniformly distributed over all of the available paths, but to increase the likelihood of taking a minimal path with each hop the packet takes. This is achieved by configuring routing biases so as to prefer non-minimal paths at the injection point, but increasingly prefer minimal paths as the packet proceeds, referred to herein as Increasing Minimal Bias (IMB).

Spatiotemporal brain dynamics underlying attentional bias modifications.

PubMed

Sallard, Etienne; Hartmann, Lea; Ptak, Radek; Spierer, Lucas

2018-06-05

Exaggerated attentional biases toward specific elements of the environment contribute to the maintenance of several psychiatric conditions, such as biases to threatening faces in social anxiety. Although recent literature indicates that attentional bias modification may constitute an effective approach for psychiatric remediation, the underlying neurophysiological mechanisms remain unclear. We addressed this question by recording EEG in 24 healthy participants performing a modified dot-probe task in which pairs of neutral cues (colored shapes) were replaced by probe stimuli requiring a discrimination judgment. To induce an attentional bias toward or away from the cues, the probes were systematically presented either at the same or at the opposite position of a specific cue color. This paradigm enabled participants to spontaneously develop biases to initially unbiased, neutral cues, as measured by the response speed to the probe presented after the cues. Behavioral result indicated that the ABM procedure induced approach and avoidance biases. The influence of ABM on inhibitory control was assessed in a separated Go/NoGo task: Changes in AB did not influence participants' capacity to inhibit their responses to the cues. Attentional bias modification was associated with a topographic modulation of event-related potentials already 50-84 ms following the onset of the cues. Statistical analyses of distributed electrical source estimations revealed that the development of attentional biases was associated with decreased activity in the left temporo-parieto-occipital junction. These findings suggest that attentional bias modification affects early sensory processing phases related to the extraction of information based on stimulus saliency. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Study of the Dependency on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter.

PubMed

Gottardi, L; Adams, J; Bailey, C; Bandler, S; Bruijn, M; Chervenak, J; Eckart, M; Finkbeiner, F; den Hartog, R; Hoevers, H; Kelley, R; Kilbourne, C; de Korte, P; van der Kuur, J; Lindeman, M; Porter, F; Sadlier, J; Smith, S

At SRON we are studying the performance of a Goddard Space Flight Center single pixel TES microcalorimeter operated in an AC bias configuration. For x-ray photons at 6 keV the pixel shows an x-ray energy resolution Δ E FWHM =3.7 eV, which is about a factor 2 worse than the energy resolution observed in an identical DC-biased pixel. In order to better understand the reasons for this discrepancy we characterised the detector as a function of temperature, bias working point and applied perpendicular magnetic field. A strong periodic dependency of the detector noise on the TES AC bias voltage is measured. We discuss the results in the framework of the recently observed weak-link behaviour of a TES microcalorimeter.

Dynamic stimuli: accentuating aesthetic preference biases.

PubMed

Friedrich, Trista E; Harms, Victoria L; Elias, Lorin J

2014-01-01

Despite humans' preference for symmetry, artwork often portrays asymmetrical characteristics that influence the viewer's aesthetic preference for the image. When presented with asymmetrical images, aesthetic preference is often given to images whose content flows from left-to-right and whose mass is located on the right of the image. Cerebral lateralization has been suggested to account for the left-to-right directionality bias; however, the influence of cultural factors, such as scanning habits, on aesthetic preference biases is debated. The current research investigates aesthetic preference for mobile objects and landscapes, as previous research has found contrasting preference for the two image types. Additionally, the current experiment examines the effects of dynamic movement on directionality preference to test the assumption that static images are perceived as aesthetically equivalent to dynamic images. After viewing mirror-imaged pairs of pictures and videos, right-to-left readers failed to show a preference bias, whereas left-to-right readers preferred stimuli with left-to-right directionality regardless of the location of the mass. The directionality bias in both reading groups was accentuated by the videos, but the bias was significantly stronger in left-to-right readers. The findings suggest that scanning habits moderate the leftward bias resulting from hemispheric specialization and that dynamic stimuli further fluent visual processing.

Immortal time bias in pharmaco-epidemiology.

PubMed

Suissa, Samy

2008-02-15

Immortal time is a span of cohort follow-up during which, because of exposure definition, the outcome under study could not occur. Bias from immortal time was first identified in the 1970s in epidemiology in the context of cohort studies of the survival benefit of heart transplantation. It recently resurfaced in pharmaco-epidemiology, with several observational studies reporting that various medications can be extremely effective at reducing morbidity and mortality. These studies, while using different cohort designs, all involved some form of immortal time and the corresponding bias. In this paper, the author describes various cohort study designs leading to this bias, quantifies its magnitude under different survival distributions, and illustrates it by using data from a cohort of lung cancer patients. The author shows that for time-based, event-based, and exposure-based cohort definitions, the bias in the rate ratio resulting from misclassified or excluded immortal time increases proportionately to the duration of immortal time. The bias is more pronounced with a decreasing hazard function for the outcome event, as illustrated with the Weibull distribution compared with a constant hazard from the exponential distribution. In conclusion, observational studies of drug benefit in which computerized databases are used must be designed and analyzed properly to avoid immortal time bias.

Patent Ductus Arteriosus Ligation and Adverse Outcomes: Causality or Bias?

PubMed Central

Weisz, Dany E.; McNamara, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

Observational studies have associated patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) ligation in preterm infants with increased chronic lung disease (CLD), retinopathy of prematurity, and neurodevelopmental impairment at long-term follow-up. Although the biological rationale for this association is incompletely understood, there is an emerging secular trend toward a permissive approach to the PDA. However, insufficient adjustment for postnatal, pre-ligation confounders, such as intraventricular hemorrhage and the duration and intensity of mechanical ventilation, suggests the presence of residual bias due to confounding by indication, and obliges caution in interpreting the ligation-morbidity relationship. A period of conservative management after failure of medical PDA closure may be considered to reduce the number of infants treated with surgery. Increased mortality and CLD in infants with persistent symptomatic PDA suggests that surgical ligation remains an important treatment modality for preterm infants. PMID:25024972

Biased ligand quantification in drug discovery: from theory to high throughput screening to identify new biased μ opioid receptor agonists

PubMed Central

Winpenny, David; Clark, Mellissa

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Biased GPCR ligands are able to engage with their target receptor in a manner that preferentially activates distinct downstream signalling and offers potential for next generation therapeutics. However, accurate quantification of ligand bias in vitro is complex, and current best practice is not amenable for testing large numbers of compound. We have therefore sought to apply ligand bias theory to an industrial scale screening campaign for the identification of new biased μ receptor agonists. Experimental Approach μ receptor assays with appropriate dynamic range were developed for both Gαi‐dependent signalling and β‐arrestin2 recruitment. Δlog(Emax/EC50) analysis was validated as an alternative for the operational model of agonism in calculating pathway bias towards Gαi‐dependent signalling. The analysis was applied to a high throughput screen to characterize the prevalence and nature of pathway bias among a diverse set of compounds with μ receptor agonist activity. Key Results A high throughput screening campaign yielded 440 hits with greater than 10‐fold bias relative to DAMGO. To validate these results, we quantified pathway bias of a subset of hits using the operational model of agonism. The high degree of correlation across these biased hits confirmed that Δlog(Emax/EC50) was a suitable method for identifying genuine biased ligands within a large collection of diverse compounds. Conclusions and Implications This work demonstrates that using Δlog(Emax/EC50), drug discovery can apply the concept of biased ligand quantification on a large scale and accelerate the deliberate discovery of novel therapeutics acting via this complex pharmacology. PMID:26791140

A New Look at Bias in Aptitude Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheuneman, Janice Dowd

1981-01-01

Statistical bias in measurement and ethnic-group bias in testing are discussed, reviewing predictive and construct validity studies. Item bias is reconceptualized to include distance of item content from respondent's experience. Differing values of mean and standard deviation for bias parameter are analyzed in a simulation. References are…

Test Bias and the Culturally Different Early Adolescent.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Eileen; DeBlassie, Richard R.

1983-01-01

Defines test bias as a phenomenon in which test scores result in negative outcomes for certain groups, often lower socioeconomic groups and minorities. Discusses three manifestations of test bias including content, atmosphere, and use bias and presents recommendations for remedying bias problems in testing the culturally different. (JAC)

How we categorize objects is related to how we remember them: The shape bias as a memory bias

PubMed Central

Vlach, Haley A.

2016-01-01

The “shape bias” describes the phenomenon that, after a certain point in development, children and adults generalize object categories based upon shape to a greater degree than other perceptual features. The focus of research on the shape bias has been to examine the types of information that learners attend to in one moment in time. The current work takes a different approach by examining whether learners' categorical biases are related to their retention of information across time. In three experiments, children's (N = 72) and adults' (N = 240) memory performance for features of objects was examined in relation to their categorical biases. The results of these experiments demonstrated that the number of shape matches chosen during the shape bias task significantly predicted shape memory. Moreover, children and adults with a shape bias were more likely to remember the shape of objects than they were the color and size of objects. Taken together, this work suggests the development of a shape bias may engender better memory for shape information. PMID:27454236

Positioning of Weight Bias: Moving towards Social Justice

PubMed Central

Alberga, Angela S.; Kassan, Anusha; Sesma-Vazquez, Monica

2016-01-01

Weight bias is a form of stigma with detrimental effects on the health and wellness of individuals with large bodies. Researchers from various disciplines have recognized weight bias as an important topic for public health and for professional practice. To date, researchers from various areas have approached weight bias from independent perspectives and from differing theoretical orientations. In this paper, we examined the similarities and differences between three perspectives (i.e., weight-centric, non-weight-centric (health-centric), and health at every size) used to understand weight bias and approach weight bias research with regard to (a) language about people with large bodies, (b) theoretical position, (c) identified consequences of weight bias, and (d) identified influences on weight-based social inequity. We suggest that, despite differences, each perspective acknowledges the negative influences that position weight as being within individual control and the negative consequences of weight bias. We call for recognition and discussion of weight bias as a social justice issue in order to change the discourse and professional practices extended towards individuals with large bodies. We advocate for an emphasis on social justice as a uniting framework for interdisciplinary research on weight bias. PMID:27747099

Thinking in Black and White: Conscious thought increases racially biased judgments through biased face memory.

PubMed

Strick, Madelijn; Stoeckart, Peter F; Dijksterhuis, Ap

2015-11-01

It is a common research finding that conscious thought helps people to avoid racial discrimination. These three experiments, however, illustrate that conscious thought may increase biased face memory, which leads to increased judgment bias (i.e., preferring White to Black individuals). In Experiments 1 and 2, university students formed impressions of Black and White housemate candidates. They judged the candidates either immediately (immediate decision condition), thought about their judgments for a few minutes (conscious thought condition), or performed an unrelated task for a few minutes (unconscious thought condition). Conscious thinkers and immediate decision-makers showed a stronger face memory bias than unconscious thinkers, and this mediated increased judgment bias, although not all results were significant. Experiment 3 used a new, different paradigm and showed that a Black male was remembered as darker after a period of conscious thought than after a period of unconscious thought. Implications for racial prejudice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-assessment of bias in science

PubMed Central

Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Ioannidis, John P. A.

2017-01-01

Numerous biases are believed to affect the scientific literature, but their actual prevalence across disciplines is unknown. To gain a comprehensive picture of the potential imprint of bias in science, we probed for the most commonly postulated bias-related patterns and risk factors, in a large random sample of meta-analyses taken from all disciplines. The magnitude of these biases varied widely across fields and was overall relatively small. However, we consistently observed a significant risk of small, early, and highly cited studies to overestimate effects and of studies not published in peer-reviewed journals to underestimate them. We also found at least partial confirmation of previous evidence suggesting that US studies and early studies might report more extreme effects, although these effects were smaller and more heterogeneously distributed across meta-analyses and disciplines. Authors publishing at high rates and receiving many citations were, overall, not at greater risk of bias. However, effect sizes were likely to be overestimated by early-career researchers, those working in small or long-distance collaborations, and those responsible for scientific misconduct, supporting hypotheses that connect bias to situational factors, lack of mutual control, and individual integrity. Some of these patterns and risk factors might have modestly increased in intensity over time, particularly in the social sciences. Our findings suggest that, besides one being routinely cautious that published small, highly-cited, and earlier studies may yield inflated results, the feasibility and costs of interventions to attenuate biases in the literature might need to be discussed on a discipline-specific and topic-specific basis. PMID:28320937

[Google Flu Trends--the initial application of big data in public health].

PubMed

Zou, Xiaohui; Zhu, Wenfei; Yang, Lei; Shu, Yuelong

2015-06-01

Google Flu Trends (GFT) was the first application of big data in the public health field. GFT was open online in 2009 and attracted worldwide attention immediately. However, GFT failed catching the 2009 pandemic H1N1 and kept overestimating the intensity of influenza-like illness in the 2012-2014 season in the United States. GFT model has been updated for three times since 2009, making its prediction bias controlled. Here, we summarized the mechanism GFT worked, the strategy GFT used to update, and its influence on public health.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Cognitive biases can affect moral intuitions about cognitive enhancement

PubMed Central

Caviola, Lucius; Mannino, Adriano; Savulescu, Julian; Faulmüller, Nadira

2014-01-01

Research into cognitive biases that impair human judgment has mostly been applied to the area of economic decision-making. Ethical decision-making has been comparatively neglected. Since ethical decisions often involve very high individual as well as collective stakes, analyzing how cognitive biases affect them can be expected to yield important results. In this theoretical article, we consider the ethical debate about cognitive enhancement (CE) and suggest a number of cognitive biases that are likely to affect moral intuitions and judgments about CE: status quo bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, omission bias, scope insensitivity, nature bias, and optimistic bias. We find that there are more well-documented biases that are likely to cause irrational aversion to CE than biases in the opposite direction. This suggests that common attitudes about CE are predominantly negatively biased. Within this new perspective, we hope that subsequent research will be able to elaborate this hypothesis and develop effective de-biasing techniques that can help increase the rationality of the public CE debate and thus improve our ethical decision-making. PMID:25360088

Cognitive neuroscience. Unlearning implicit social biases during sleep.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W; Creery, Jessica D; Vargas, Iliana M; Bodenhausen, Galen V; Paller, Ken A

2015-05-29

Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here, we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counterstereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison with the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained 1 week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counterstereotype training and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Modifying Threat-Related Interpretive Bias in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salemink, Elske; Wiers, Reinout W.

2011-01-01

Socially anxious feelings sharply increase during adolescence and such feelings have been associated with interpretive biases. Studies in adults have shown that interpretive biases can be modified using Cognitive Bias Modification procedures (CBM-I) and subsequent effects on anxiety have been observed. The current study was designed to examine…

Gender bias affects forests worldwide

Treesearch

Marlène Elias; Susan S Hummel; Bimbika S Basnett; Carol J.P. Colfer

2017-01-01

Gender biases persist in forestry research and practice. These biases result in reduced scientific rigor and inequitable, ineffective, and less efficient policies, programs, and interventions. Drawing from a two-volume collection of current and classic analyses on gender in forests, we outline five persistent and inter-related themes: gendered governance, tree tenure,...

Vowel bias in Danish word-learning: processing biases are language-specific.

PubMed

Højen, Anders; Nazzi, Thierry

2016-01-01

The present study explored whether the phonological bias favoring consonants found in French-learning infants and children when learning new words (Havy & Nazzi, 2009; Nazzi, 2005) is language-general, as proposed by Nespor, Peña and Mehler (2003), or varies across languages, perhaps as a function of the phonological or lexical properties of the language in acquisition. To do so, we used the interactive word-learning task set up by Havy and Nazzi (2009), teaching Danish-learning 20-month-olds pairs of phonetically similar words that contrasted either on one of their consonants or one of their vowels, by either one or two phonological features. Danish was chosen because it has more vowels than consonants, and is characterized by extensive consonant lenition. Both phenomena could disfavor a consonant bias. Evidence of word-learning was found only for vocalic information, irrespective of whether one or two phonological features were changed. The implication of these findings is that the phonological biases found in early lexical processing are not language-general but develop during language acquisition, depending on the phonological or lexical properties of the native language. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Item Response Theory Model for Test Bias.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shealy, Robin; Stout, William

This paper presents a conceptualization of test bias for standardized ability tests which is based on multidimensional, non-parametric, item response theory. An explanation of how individually-biased items can combine through a test score to produce test bias is provided. It is contended that bias, although expressed at the item level, should be…

Weight bias internalization across weight categories among school-aged children. Validation of the Weight Bias Internalization Scale for Children.

PubMed

Zuba, Anna; Warschburger, Petra

2018-06-01

Anti-fat bias is widespread and is linked to the internalization of weight bias and psychosocial problems. The purpose of this study was to examine the internalization of weight bias among children across weight categories and to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Weight Bias Internalization Scale for Children (WBIS-C). Data were collected from 1484 primary school children and their parents. WBIS-C demonstrated good internal consistency (α = .86) after exclusion of Item 1. The unitary factor structure was supported using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (factorial validity). Girls and overweight children reported higher WBIS-C scores in comparison to boys and non-overweight peers (known-groups validity). Convergent validity was shown by significant correlations with psychosocial problems. Internalization of weight bias explained additional variance in different indicators of psychosocial well-being. The results suggest that the WBIS-C is a psychometrically sound and informative tool to assess weight bias internalization among children. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heuristic Biases in Mathematical Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inglis, Matthew; Simpson, Adrian

2005-01-01

In this paper we briefly describe the dual process account of reasoning, and explain the role of heuristic biases in human thought. Concentrating on the so-called matching bias effect, we describe a piece of research that indicates a correlation between success at advanced level mathematics and an ability to override innate and misleading…

Measuring Individual Differences in Decision Biases: Methodological Considerations

PubMed Central

Aczel, Balazs; Bago, Bence; Szollosi, Aba; Foldes, Andrei; Lukacs, Bence

2015-01-01

Individual differences in people's susceptibility to heuristics and biases (HB) are often measured by multiple-bias questionnaires consisting of one or a few items for each bias. This research approach relies on the assumptions that (1) different versions of a decision bias task measure are interchangeable as they measure the same cognitive failure; and (2) that some combination of these tasks measures the same underlying construct. Based on these assumptions, in Study 1 we developed two versions of a new decision bias survey for which we modified 13 HB tasks to increase their comparability, construct validity, and the participants' motivation. The analysis of the responses (N = 1279) showed weak internal consistency within the surveys and a great level of discrepancy between the extracted patterns of the underlying factors. To explore these inconsistencies, in Study 2 we used three original examples of HB tasks for each of seven biases. We created three decision bias surveys by allocating one version of each HB task to each survey. The participants' responses (N = 527) showed a similar pattern as in Study 1, questioning the assumption that the different examples of the HB tasks are interchangeable and that they measure the same underlying construct. These results emphasize the need to understand the domain-specificity of cognitive biases as well as the effect of the wording of the cover story and the response mode on bias susceptibility before employing them in multiple-bias questionnaires. PMID:26635677

Improved Correction of Misclassification Bias With Bootstrap Imputation.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2018-07-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative database research can create bias due to misclassification. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can correct for this bias, requires only code sensitivity and specificity, but may return invalid results. Bootstrap imputation (BI) can also address misclassification bias but traditionally requires multivariate models to accurately estimate disease probability. This study compared misclassification bias correction using QBA and BI. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 100,000 hospitalized patients. Prevalence of severe renal failure in 86 patient strata and its association with 43 covariates was determined and compared with results in which renal failure status was determined using diagnostic codes (sensitivity 71.3%, specificity 96.2%). Differences in results (misclassification bias) were then corrected with QBA or BI (using progressively more complex methods to estimate disease probability). In total, 7.4% of patients had severe renal failure. Imputing disease status with diagnostic codes exaggerated prevalence estimates [median relative change (range), 16.6% (0.8%-74.5%)] and its association with covariates [median (range) exponentiated absolute parameter estimate difference, 1.16 (1.01-2.04)]. QBA produced invalid results 9.3% of the time and increased bias in estimates of both disease prevalence and covariate associations. BI decreased misclassification bias with increasingly accurate disease probability estimates. QBA can produce invalid results and increase misclassification bias. BI avoids invalid results and can importantly decrease misclassification bias when accurate disease probability estimates are used.

Affective Biases in Humans and Animals.

PubMed

Robinson, E S J; Roiser, J P

Depression is one of the most common but poorly understood psychiatric conditions. Although drug treatments and psychological therapies are effective in some patients, many do not achieve full remission and some patients receive no apparent benefit. Developing new improved treatments requires a better understanding of the aetiology of symptoms and evaluation of novel therapeutic targets in pre-clinical studies. Recent developments in our understanding of the basic cognitive processes that may contribute to the development of depression and its treatment offer new opportunities for both clinical and pre-clinical research. This chapter discusses the clinical evidence supporting a cognitive neuropsychological model of depression and antidepressant efficacy, and how this information may be usefully translated to pre-clinical investigation. Studies using neuropsychological tests in depressed patients and at risk populations have revealed basic negative emotional biases and disrupted reward and punishment processing, which may also impact on non-affective cognition. These affective biases are sensitive to antidepressant treatments with early onset effects observed, suggesting an important role in recovery. This clinical work into affective biases has also facilitated back-translation to animals and the development of assays to study affective biases in rodents. These animal studies suggest that, similar to humans, rodents in putative negative affective states exhibit negative affective biases on decision-making and memory tasks. Antidepressant treatments also induce positive biases in these rodent tasks, supporting the translational validity of this approach. Although still in the early stages of development and validation, affective biases in depression have the potential to offer new insights into the clinical condition, as well as facilitating the development of more translational approaches for pre-clinical studies.

Medical journal peer review: process and bias.

PubMed

Manchikanti, Laxmaiah; Kaye, Alan D; Boswell, Mark V; Hirsch, Joshua A

2015-01-01

Scientific peer review is pivotal in health care research in that it facilitates the evaluation of findings for competence, significance, and originality by qualified experts. While the origins of peer review can be traced to the societies of the eighteenth century, it became an institutionalized part of the scholarly process in the latter half of the twentieth century. This was a response to the growth of research and greater subject specialization. With the current increase in the number of specialty journals, the peer review process continues to evolve to meet the needs of patients, clinicians, and policy makers. The peer review process itself faces challenges. Unblinded peer review might suffer from positive or negative bias towards certain authors, specialties, and institutions. Peer review can also suffer when editors and/or reviewers might be unable to understand the contents of the submitted manuscript. This can result in an inability to detect major flaws, or revelations of major flaws after acceptance of publication by the editors. Other concerns include potentially long delays in publication and challenges uncovering plagiarism, duplication, corruption and scientific misconduct. Conversely, a multitude of these challenges have led to claims of scientific misconduct and an erosion of faith. These challenges have invited criticism of the peer review process itself. However, despite its imperfections, the peer review process enjoys widespread support in the scientific community. Peer review bias is one of the major focuses of today's scientific assessment of the literature. Various types of peer review bias include content-based bias, confirmation bias, bias due to conservatism, bias against interdisciplinary research, publication bias, and the bias of conflicts of interest. Consequently, peer review would benefit from various changes and improvements with appropriate training of reviewers to provide quality reviews to maintain the quality and integrity of

Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Widmann, Martin; Zappa, Giuseppe; Walton, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José M.; Hagemann, Stefan; Richter, Ingo; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Hall, Alex; Mearns, Linda O.

2017-11-01

Biases in climate model simulations introduce biases in subsequent impact simulations. Therefore, bias correction methods are operationally used to post-process regional climate projections. However, many problems have been identified, and some researchers question the very basis of the approach. Here we demonstrate that a typical cross-validation is unable to identify improper use of bias correction. Several examples show the limited ability of bias correction to correct and to downscale variability, and demonstrate that bias correction can cause implausible climate change signals. Bias correction cannot overcome major model errors, and naive application might result in ill-informed adaptation decisions. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, post-process, and cope with climate model biases.

The Effect of Elevation Bias in Interpolated Air Temperature Data Sets on Surface Warming in China During 1951-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao; Ge, Quansheng; Kleidon, Axel; Liu, Wenbin

2018-02-01

Although gridded air temperature data sets share much of the same observations, different rates of warming can be detected due to different approaches employed for considering elevation signatures in the interpolation processes. Here we examine the influence of varying spatiotemporal distribution of sites on surface warming in the long-term trend and over the recent warming hiatus period in China during 1951-2015. A suspicious cooling trend in raw interpolated air temperature time series is found in the 1950s, and 91% of which can be explained by the artificial elevation changes introduced by the interpolation process. We define the regression slope relating temperature difference and elevation difference as the bulk lapse rate of -5.6°C/km, which tends to be higher (-8.7°C/km) in dry regions but lower (-2.4°C/km) in wet regions. Compared to independent experimental observations, we find that the estimated monthly bulk lapse rates work well to capture the elevation bias. Significant improvement can be achieved in adjusting the interpolated original temperature time series using the bulk lapse rate. The results highlight that the developed bulk lapse rate is useful to account for the elevation signature in the interpolation of site-based surface air temperature to gridded data sets and is necessary for avoiding elevation bias in climate change studies.

Understanding and Overcoming Implicit Gender Bias in Plastic Surgery.

PubMed

Phillips, Nicole A; Tannan, Shruti C; Kalliainen, Loree K

2016-11-01

Although explicit sex-based discrimination has largely been deemed unacceptable in professional settings, implicit gender bias persists and results in a significant lack of parity in plastic surgery and beyond. Implicit gender bias is the result of a complex interplay of cultural and societal expectations, learned behaviors, and standardized associations. As such, both male and female surgeons are subject to its influence. A review of the literature was conducted, examining theories of gender bias, current manifestations of gender bias in plastic surgery and other fields, and interventions designed to address gender bias. Multiple studies demonstrate persistent gender bias that impacts female physicians at all levels of training. Several institutions have enacted successful interventions to identify and address gender bias. Explicit gender bias has largely disappeared, yet unconscious or implicit gender bias persists. A wide-scale commitment to addressing implicit gender bias in plastic surgery is necessary and overdue. Recommendations include immediate actions that can be undertaken on an individual basis, and changes that should be implemented at a national and international level by leaders in the field.

Galaxy bias and primordial non-Gaussianity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: assassi@ias.edu, E-mail: D.D.Baumann@uva.nl, E-mail: fabians@MPA-Garching.MPG.DE

2015-12-01

We present a systematic study of galaxy biasing in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. For a large class of non-Gaussian initial conditions, we define a general bias expansion and prove that it is closed under renormalization, thereby showing that the basis of operators in the expansion is complete. We then study the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity on the statistics of galaxies. We show that the equivalence principle enforces a relation between the scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum and that in the dipolar part of the bispectrum. This provides a powerful consistency check to confirm the primordial origin ofmore » any observed scale-dependent bias. Finally, we also discuss the imprints of anisotropic non-Gaussianity as motivated by recent studies of higher-spin fields during inflation.« less

Temperature effects on pitfall catches of epigeal arthropods: a model and method for bias correction.

PubMed

Saska, Pavel; van der Werf, Wopke; Hemerik, Lia; Luff, Martin L; Hatten, Timothy D; Honek, Alois; Pocock, Michael

2013-02-01

Carabids and other epigeal arthropods make important contributions to biodiversity, food webs and biocontrol of invertebrate pests and weeds. Pitfall trapping is widely used for sampling carabid populations, but this technique yields biased estimates of abundance ('activity-density') because individual activity - which is affected by climatic factors - affects the rate of catch. To date, the impact of temperature on pitfall catches, while suspected to be large, has not been quantified, and no method is available to account for it. This lack of knowledge and the unavailability of a method for bias correction affect the confidence that can be placed on results of ecological field studies based on pitfall data.Here, we develop a simple model for the effect of temperature, assuming a constant proportional change in the rate of catch per °C change in temperature, r , consistent with an exponential Q 10 response to temperature. We fit this model to 38 time series of pitfall catches and accompanying temperature records from the literature, using first differences and other detrending methods to account for seasonality. We use meta-analysis to assess consistency of the estimated parameter r among studies.The mean rate of increase in total catch across data sets was 0·0863 ± 0·0058 per °C of maximum temperature and 0·0497 ± 0·0107 per °C of minimum temperature. Multiple regression analyses of 19 data sets showed that temperature is the key climatic variable affecting total catch. Relationships between temperature and catch were also identified at species level. Correction for temperature bias had substantial effects on seasonal trends of carabid catches. Synthesis and Applications . The effect of temperature on pitfall catches is shown here to be substantial and worthy of consideration when interpreting results of pitfall trapping. The exponential model can be used both for effect estimation and for bias correction of observed data. Correcting for temperature

Bias in the Mass Media.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cirino, Robert

Non-language elements of bias in mass media--such as images, sounds, tones of voices, inflection, and facial expressions--are invariably integrated with the choice of language. Further, they have an emotional impact that is often greater than that of language. It is essential that the teacher of English deal with this non-language bias since it is…

Influence of white light illumination on the performance of a-IGZO thin film transistor under positive gate-bias stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Lan-Feng; Yu, Guang; Lu, Hai; Wu, Chen-Fei; Qian, Hui-Min; Zhou, Dong; Zhang, Rong; Zheng, You-Dou; Huang, Xiao-Ming

2015-08-01

The influence of white light illumination on the stability of an amorphous InGaZnO thin film transistor is investigated in this work. Under prolonged positive gate bias stress, the device illuminated by white light exhibits smaller positive threshold voltage shift than the device stressed under dark. There are simultaneous degradations of field-effect mobility for both stressed devices, which follows a similar trend to that of the threshold voltage shift. The reduced threshold voltage shift under illumination is explained by a competition between bias-induced interface carrier trapping effect and photon-induced carrier detrapping effect. It is further found that white light illumination could even excite and release trapped carriers originally exiting at the device interface before positive gate bias stress, so that the threshold voltage could recover to an even lower value than that in an equilibrium state. The effect of photo-excitation of oxygen vacancies within the a-IGZO film is also discussed. Project supported by the State Key Program for Basic Research of China (Grant Nos. 2011CB301900 and 2011CB922100) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China.

Mechanism for and method of biasing magnetic sensor

DOEpatents

Kautz, David R.

2007-12-04

A magnetic sensor package having a biasing mechanism involving a coil-generated, resistor-controlled magnetic field for providing a desired biasing effect. In a preferred illustrated embodiment, the package broadly comprises a substrate; a magnetic sensor element; a biasing mechanism, including a coil and a first resistance element; an amplification mechanism; a filter capacitor element; and an encapsulant. The sensor is positioned within the coil. A current applied to the coil produces a biasing magnetic field. The biasing magnetic field is controlled by selecting a resistance value for the first resistance element which achieves the desired biasing effect. The first resistance element preferably includes a plurality of selectable resistors, the selection of one or more of which sets the resistance value.

A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using the CDF-t method - a contribution to agricultural impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moise Famien, Adjoua; Janicot, Serge; Delfin Ochou, Abe; Vrac, Mathieu; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Noël, Thomas

2018-03-01

The objective of this paper is to present a new dataset of bias-corrected CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) daily data over Africa. This dataset was obtained using the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, a method that has been applied to several regions and contexts but never to Africa. Here CDF-t has been applied over the period 1950-2099 combining Historical runs and climate change scenarios for six variables: precipitation, mean near-surface air temperature, near-surface maximum air temperature, near-surface minimum air temperature, surface downwelling shortwave radiation, and wind speed, which are critical variables for agricultural purposes. WFDEI has been used as the reference dataset to correct the GCMs. Evaluation of the results over West Africa has been carried out on a list of priority user-based metrics that were discussed and selected with stakeholders. It includes simulated yield using a crop model simulating maize growth. These bias-corrected GCM data have been compared with another available dataset of bias-corrected GCMs using WATCH Forcing Data as the reference dataset. The impact of WFD, WFDEI, and also EWEMBI reference datasets has been also examined in detail. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective at removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets. This is particularly true for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields. Projections of future yields over West Africa are quite different, depending on the bias-correction method used. However all these projections show a similar relative decreasing trend over the 21st century.

Investigating bias in squared regression structure coefficients

PubMed Central

Nimon, Kim F.; Zientek, Linda R.; Thompson, Bruce

2015-01-01

The importance of structure coefficients and analogs of regression weights for analysis within the general linear model (GLM) has been well-documented. The purpose of this study was to investigate bias in squared structure coefficients in the context of multiple regression and to determine if a formula that had been shown to correct for bias in squared Pearson correlation coefficients and coefficients of determination could be used to correct for bias in squared regression structure coefficients. Using data from a Monte Carlo simulation, this study found that squared regression structure coefficients corrected with Pratt's formula produced less biased estimates and might be more accurate and stable estimates of population squared regression structure coefficients than estimates with no such corrections. While our findings are in line with prior literature that identified multicollinearity as a predictor of bias in squared regression structure coefficients but not coefficients of determination, the findings from this study are unique in that the level of predictive power, number of predictors, and sample size were also observed to contribute bias in squared regression structure coefficients. PMID:26217273

Attention Bias Modification for Major Depressive Disorder: Effects on Attention Bias, Resting State Connectivity, and Symptom Change

PubMed Central

Beevers, Christopher G.; Clasen, Peter C.; Enock, Philip M.; Schnyer, David M.

2015-01-01

Cognitive theories of depression posit that selective attention for negative information contributes to the maintenance of depression. The current study experimentally tested this idea by randomly assigning adults with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) to four weeks of computer-based attention bias modification designed to reduce negative attention bias or four weeks of placebo attention training. Findings indicate that compared to placebo training, attention bias modification reduced negative attention bias and increased resting-state connectivity within a neural circuit (i.e., middle frontal gyrus and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex) that supports control over emotional information. Further, pre- to post-training change in negative attention bias was significantly correlated with depression symptom change only in the active training condition. Exploratory analyses indicated that pre- to post-training changes in resting state connectivity within a circuit associated with sustained attention to visual information (i.e., precuenus and middle frontal gyrus) contributed to symptom improvement in the placebo condition. Importantly, depression symptoms did not change differentially between the training groups—overall, a 40% decrease in symptoms was observed across attention training conditions. Findings suggest that negative attention bias is associated with the maintenance of depression; however, general attentional control may also maintain depression symptoms, as evidenced by resting state connectivity and depression symptom improvement in the placebo training condition. PMID:25894440

Mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias.

PubMed

Russo, Riccardo; Whittuck, Dora; Roberson, Debi; Dutton, Kevin; Georgiou, George; Fox, Elaine

2006-05-01

The status of mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals was evaluated following incidental encoding of target words. Individuals with high and low levels of trait anxiety completed a modified Stroop task, which revealed an attentional bias for threat-related stimuli in anxious individuals. This group was significantly slower in naming the colour in which threat-related words were displayed compared to neutral words. In a subsequent free recall test for the words used in the modified Stroop task, anxious individuals recalled more threat-related words compared to low-anxious people. This difference was significant even when controlling for the false recall of items that had not been presented during study. These results support the view put forward by Russo, Fox, Bellinger, and Nguyen-Van-Tam (2001) that mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals can be observed if the target material is encoded at a relatively shallow level. Moreover, contrary to Dowens and Calvo (2003), the current results show that the memory advantage for threat-related information in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias.

Mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias

PubMed Central

Russo, Riccardo; Whittuck, Dora; Roberson, Debi; Dutton, Kevin; Georgiou, George; Fox, Elaine

2007-01-01

The status of mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals was evaluated following incidental encoding of target words. Individuals with high and low levels of trait anxiety completed a modified Stroop task, which revealed an attentional bias for threat-related stimuli in anxious individuals. This group was significantly slower in naming the colour in which threat-related words were displayed compared to neutral words. In a subsequent free recall test for the words used in the modified Stroop task, anxious individuals recalled more threat-related words compared to low-anxious people. This difference was significant even when controlling for the false recall of items that had not been presented during study. These results support the view put forward by Russo, Fox, Bellinger, and Nguyen-Van-Tam (2001) that mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals can be observed if the target material is encoded at a relatively shallow level. Moreover, contrary to Dowens and Calvo (2003), the current results show that the memory advantage for threat-related information in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias. PMID:16766443

White and Black American Children’s Implicit Intergroup Bias

PubMed Central

Newheiser, Anna-Kaisa; Olson, Kristina R.

2011-01-01

Despite a decline in explicit prejudice, adults and children from majority groups (e.g., White Americans) often express bias implicitly, as assessed by the Implicit Association Test. In contrast, minority-group (e.g., Black American) adults on average show no bias on the IAT. In the present research, representing the first empirical investigation of whether Black children’s IAT responses parallel those of Black adults, we examined implicit bias in 7–11-year-old White and Black American children. Replicating previous findings with adults, whereas White children showed a robust ingroup bias, Black children showed no bias. Additionally, we investigated the role of valuing status in the development of implicit bias. For Black children, explicit preference for high status predicted implicit outgroup bias: Black children who explicitly expressed high preference for rich (vs. poor) people showed an implicit preference for Whites comparable in magnitude to White children’s ingroup bias. Implications for research on intergroup bias are discussed. PMID:22184478

Threat-Related Attention Bias Variability and Posttraumatic Stress.

PubMed

Naim, Reut; Abend, Rany; Wald, Ilan; Eldar, Sharon; Levi, Ofir; Fruchter, Eyal; Ginat, Karen; Halpern, Pinchas; Sipos, Maurice L; Adler, Amy B; Bliese, Paul D; Quartana, Phillip J; Pine, Daniel S; Bar-Haim, Yair

2015-12-01

Threat monitoring facilitates survival by allowing one to efficiently and accurately detect potential threats. Traumatic events can disrupt healthy threat monitoring, inducing biased and unstable threat-related attention deployment. Recent research suggests that greater attention bias variability, that is, attention fluctuations alternating toward and away from threat, occurs in participants with PTSD relative to healthy comparison subjects who were either exposed or not exposed to traumatic events. The current study extends findings on attention bias variability in PTSD. Previous measurement of attention bias variability was refined by employing a moving average technique. Analyses were conducted across seven independent data sets; in each, data on attention bias variability were collected by using variants of the dot-probe task. Trauma-related and anxiety symptoms were evaluated across samples by using structured psychiatric interviews and widely used self-report questionnaires, as specified for each sample. Analyses revealed consistent evidence of greater attention bias variability in patients with PTSD following various types of traumatic events than in healthy participants, participants with social anxiety disorder, and participants with acute stress disorder. Moreover, threat-related, and not positive, attention bias variability was correlated with PTSD severity. These findings carry possibilities for using attention bias variability as a specific cognitive marker of PTSD and for tailoring protocols for attention bias modification for this disorder.

Solar array/spacecraft biasing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzgerald, D. J.

1981-01-01

Biasing techniques and their application to the control of spacecraft potential is discussed. Normally when a spacecraft is operated with ion thrusters, the spacecraft will be 10-20 volts negative of the surrounding plasma. This will affect scientific measurements and will allow ions from the charge-exchange plasma to bombard the spacecraft surfaces with a few tens of volts of energy. This condition may not be tolerable. A proper bias system is described that can bring the spacecraft to or near the potential of the surrounding plasma.

Trends in GPCR drug discovery: new agents, targets and indications.

PubMed

Hauser, Alexander S; Attwood, Misty M; Rask-Andersen, Mathias; Schiöth, Helgi B; Gloriam, David E

2017-12-01

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are the most intensively studied drug targets, mostly due to their substantial involvement in human pathophysiology and their pharmacological tractability. Here, we report an up-to-date analysis of all GPCR drugs and agents in clinical trials, which reveals current trends across molecule types, drug targets and therapeutic indications, including showing that 475 drugs (~34% of all drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)) act at 108 unique GPCRs. Approximately 321 agents are currently in clinical trials, of which ~20% target 66 potentially novel GPCR targets without an approved drug, and the number of biological drugs, allosteric modulators and biased agonists has increased. The major disease indications for GPCR modulators show a shift towards diabetes, obesity and Alzheimer disease, although several central nervous system disorders are also highly represented. The 224 (56%) non-olfactory GPCRs that have not yet been explored in clinical trials have broad untapped therapeutic potential, particularly in genetic and immune system disorders. Finally, we provide an interactive online resource to analyse and infer trends in GPCR drug discovery.

Implicit Bias in Pediatric Academic Medicine.

PubMed

Johnson, Tiffani J; Ellison, Angela M; Dalembert, George; Fowler, Jessica; Dhingra, Menaka; Shaw, Kathy; Ibrahim, Said

2017-01-01

Despite known benefits of diversity, certain racial/ethnic groups remain underrepresented in academic pediatrics. Little research exists regarding unconscious racial attitudes among pediatric faculty responsible for decisions on workforce recruitment and retention in academia. This study sought to describe levels of unconscious racial bias and perceived barriers to minority recruitment and retention among academic pediatric faculty leaders. Authors measured unconscious racial bias in a sample of pediatric faculty attending diversity workshops conducted at local and national meetings in 2015. A paper version of the validated Implicit Association Test (IAT) measured unconscious racial bias. Subjects also reported perceptions about minority recruitment and retention. Of 68 eligible subjects approached, 58 (85%) consented and completed the survey with IAT. Of participants, 83% had leadership roles and 93% were involved in recruitment. Participants had slight pro-white/anti-black bias on the IAT (M = 0.28, SD = 0.49). There were similar IAT scores among participants in leadership roles (M = 0.33, SD = 0.47) and involved in recruitment (M = 0.28, SD = 0.43). Results did not differ when comparing participants in local workshops to the national workshop (n = 36, M = 0.29, SD = 0.40 and n = 22, M = 0.27, SD = 0.49 respectively; p = 0.88). Perceived barriers to minority recruitment and retention included lack of minority mentors, poor recruitment efforts, and lack of qualified candidates. Unconscious pro-white/anti-black racial bias was identified in this sample of academic pediatric faculty and leaders. Further research is needed to examine how unconscious bias impacts decisions in academic pediatric workforce recruitment. Addressing unconscious bias and perceived barriers to minority recruitment and retention represent opportunities to improve diversity efforts. Copyright © 2017 National Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Weight Bias in University Health Professions Students.

PubMed

Blanton, Cynthia; Brooks, Jennifer K; McKnight, Laura

2016-01-01

Negative attitudes toward people with high body weight have been documented in pre-professional health students, prompting concern that such feelings may manifest as poor patient care in professional practice. This study assessed weight bias in university students in the non-physician health professions. A convenience sample of 206 students completed an online survey composed of a validated 14-item scale (1-5 lowest to highest weight bias) and questions regarding personal experiences of weight bias. Respondents were grouped by discipline within graduate and undergraduate levels. Weight bias was present in a majority of respondents. Overall, the percentage of responses indicative of weight bias was 92.7%. The mean total score was 3.65. ± 0.52, and the rating exceeded 3 for all 14 scale descriptors of high-weight people. In graduate students, discipline had a significant main effect on total score (p=0.01), with lower scores in dietetics (3.17 ± 0.46) vs audiology/sign language/speech language pathology (3.84 ± 0.41) and physician assistant students (3.78 ± 0.51; p<0.05). These findings show that weight bias is prevalent in health professions students at a mountain west university. Well-controlled studies that track students into professional practice would help determine whether bias-reduction interventions in college improve provider behaviors and clinical outcomes.

Racial Categorization Predicts Implicit Racial Bias in Preschool Children.

PubMed

Setoh, Peipei; Lee, Kristy J J; Zhang, Lijun; Qian, Miao K; Quinn, Paul C; Heyman, Gail D; Lee, Kang

2017-06-12

This research investigated the relation between racial categorization and implicit racial bias in majority and minority children. Chinese and Indian 3- to 7-year-olds from Singapore (N = 158) categorized Chinese and Indian faces by race and had their implicit and explicit racial biases measured. Majority Chinese children, but not minority Indian children, showed implicit bias favoring own race. Regardless of ethnicity, children's racial categorization performance correlated positively with implicit racial bias. Also, Chinese children, but not Indian children, displayed explicit bias favoring own race. Furthermore, children's explicit bias was unrelated to racial categorization performance and implicit bias. The findings support a perceptual-social linkage in the emergence of implicit racial bias and have implications for designing programs to promote interracial harmony. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Assessing the implementation of bias correction in the climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat, Nurul

2018-04-01

An issue of the climate changes nowadays becomes trigger and irregular. The increment of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission into the atmospheric system day by day gives huge impact to the fluctuated weather and global warming. It becomes significant to analyse the changes of climate parameters in the long term. However, the accuracy in the climate simulation is always be questioned to control the reliability of the projection results. Thus, the Linear Scaling (LS) as a bias correction method (BC) had been applied to treat the gaps between observed and simulated results. About two rainfall stations were selected in Pahang state there are Station Lubuk Paku and Station Temerloh. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) used to perform the relationship between local weather and atmospheric parameters in projecting the long term rainfall trend. The result revealed the LS was successfully to reduce the error up to 3% and produced better climate simulated results.

Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one "virtual" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

System and circuitry to provide stable transconductance for biasing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garverick, Steven L. (Inventor); Yu, Xinyu (Inventor)

2012-01-01

An amplifier system can include an input amplifier configured to receive an analog input signal and provide an amplified signal corresponding to the analog input signal. A tracking loop is configured to employ delta modulation for tracking the amplified signal, the tracking loop providing a corresponding output signal. A biasing circuit is configured to adjust a bias current to maintain stable transconductance over temperature variations, the biasing circuit providing at least one bias signal for biasing at least one of the input amplifier and the tracking loop, whereby the circuitry receiving the at least one bias signal exhibits stable performance over the temperature variations. In another embodiment the biasing circuit can be utilized in other applications.

On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability.

PubMed

Stanovich, Keith E; West, Richard F

2008-04-01

In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, "less is more" effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Effects of Bias Modification Training in Binge Eating Disorder.

PubMed

Schmitz, Florian; Svaldi, Jennifer

2017-09-01

Food-related attentional biases have been identified as maintaining factors in binge eating disorder (BED) as they can trigger a binge episode. Bias modification training may reduce symptoms, as it has been shown to be successful in other appetitive disorders. The aim of this study was to assess and modify food-related biases in BED. It was tested whether biases could be increased and decreased by means of a modified dot-probe paradigm, how long such bias modification persisted, and whether this affected subjective food craving. Participants were randomly assigned to a bias enhancement (attend to food stimulus) group or to a bias reduction (avoid food stimulus) group. Food-related attentional bias was found to be successfully reduced in the bias-reduction group, and effects persisted briefly. Additionally, subjective craving for food was influenced by the intervention, and possible mechanisms are discussed. Given these promising initial results, future research should investigate boundary conditions of the experimental intervention to understand how it could complement treatment of BED. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Attentional bias in math anxiety.

PubMed

Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

2015-01-01

Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms.

Attentional bias in math anxiety

PubMed Central

Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

2015-01-01

Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms. PMID:26528208

Three-Dimensional Geometry of the Narwhal (Monodon monoceros) Flukes in Relation to Hydrodynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, 27(4): 889–898 (October 2011) C© 2010 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-7692.2010.00439.x Three...Chester University, West Chester, Pennsylvania 19383, U.S.A. E-mail: ffish@wcupa.edu NATALIA RYBCZYNSKI Canadian Museum of Nature, Ottawa, Ontario K1P...distributed in the ice-packed stretches of waters bordering Greenland and the Canadian High Arctic (Laidre et al. 2003). The flukes of mature male

A retrieval-based approach to eliminating hindsight bias.

PubMed

Van Boekel, Martin; Varma, Keisha; Varma, Sashank

2017-03-01

Individuals exhibit hindsight bias when they are unable to recall their original responses to novel questions after correct answers are provided to them. Prior studies have eliminated hindsight bias by modifying the conditions under which original judgments or correct answers are encoded. Here, we explored whether hindsight bias can be eliminated by manipulating the conditions that hold at retrieval. Our retrieval-based approach predicts that if the conditions at retrieval enable sufficient discrimination of memory representations of original judgments from memory representations of correct answers, then hindsight bias will be reduced or eliminated. Experiment 1 used the standard memory design to replicate the hindsight bias effect in middle-school students. Experiments 2 and 3 modified the retrieval phase of this design, instructing participants beforehand that they would be recalling both their original judgments and the correct answers. As predicted, this enabled participants to form compound retrieval cues that discriminated original judgment traces from correct answer traces, and eliminated hindsight bias. Experiment 4 found that when participants were not instructed beforehand that they would be making both recalls, they did not form discriminating retrieval cues, and hindsight bias returned. These experiments delineate the retrieval conditions that produce-and fail to produce-hindsight bias.

Effects of Inventory Bias on Landslide Susceptibility Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, T. A.; Kirschbaum, D. B.

2017-01-01

Many landslide inventories are known to be biased, especially inventories for large regions such as Oregon's SLIDO or NASA's Global Landslide Catalog. These biases must affect the results of empirically derived susceptibility models to some degree. We evaluated the strength of the susceptibility model distortion from postulated biases by truncating an unbiased inventory. We generated a synthetic inventory from an existing landslide susceptibility map of Oregon, then removed landslides from this inventory to simulate the effects of reporting biases likely to affect inventories in this region, namely population and infrastructure effects. Logistic regression models were fitted to the modified inventories. Then the process of biasing a susceptibility model was repeated with SLIDO data. We evaluated each susceptibility model with qualitative and quantitative methods. Results suggest that the effects of landslide inventory bias on empirical models should not be ignored, even if those models are, in some cases, useful. We suggest fitting models in well-documented areas and extrapolating across the study region as a possible approach to modeling landslide susceptibility with heavily biased inventories.

Effects of Inventory Bias on Landslide Susceptibility Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.

2017-01-01

Many landslide inventories are known to be biased, especially inventories for large regions such as Oregons SLIDO or NASAs Global Landslide Catalog. These biases must affect the results of empirically derived susceptibility models to some degree. We evaluated the strength of the susceptibility model distortion from postulated biases by truncating an unbiased inventory. We generated a synthetic inventory from an existing landslide susceptibility map of Oregon, then removed landslides from this inventory to simulate the effects of reporting biases likely to affect inventories in this region, namely population and infrastructure effects. Logistic regression models were fitted to the modified inventories. Then the process of biasing a susceptibility model was repeated with SLIDO data. We evaluated each susceptibility model with qualitative and quantitative methods. Results suggest that the effects of landslide inventory bias on empirical models should not be ignored, even if those models are, in some cases, useful. We suggest fitting models in well-documented areas and extrapolating across the study region as a possible approach to modelling landslide susceptibility with heavily biased inventories.

Large-scale assembly bias of dark matter halos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lazeyras, Titouan; Musso, Marcello; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: titouan@mpa-garching.mpg.de, E-mail: mmusso@sas.upenn.edu, E-mail: fabians@mpa-garching.mpg.de

We present precise measurements of the assembly bias of dark matter halos, i.e. the dependence of halo bias on other properties than the mass, using curved 'separate universe' N-body simulations which effectively incorporate an infinite-wavelength matter overdensity into the background density. This method measures the LIMD (local-in-matter-density) bias parameters b {sub n} in the large-scale limit. We focus on the dependence of the first two Eulerian biases b {sup E} {sup {sub 1}} and b {sup E} {sup {sub 2}} on four halo properties: the concentration, spin, mass accretion rate, and ellipticity. We quantitatively compare our results with previous worksmore » in which assembly bias was measured on fairly small scales. Despite this difference, our findings are in good agreement with previous results. We also look at the joint dependence of bias on two halo properties in addition to the mass. Finally, using the excursion set peaks model, we attempt to shed new insights on how assembly bias arises in this analytical model.« less

Detecting Gender Bias Through Test Item Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Espada, Wilson J.

2009-03-01

Many physical science and physics instructors might not be trained in pedagogically appropriate test construction methods. This could lead to test items that do not measure what they are intended to measure. A subgroup of these items might show bias against some groups of students. This paper describes how the author became aware of potentially biased items against females in his examinations, which led to the exploration of fundamental issues related to item validity, gender bias, and differential item functioning, or DIF. A brief discussion of DIF in the context of university courses, as well as practical suggestions to detect possible gender-biased items, follows.

Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

PubMed

Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

1991-12-01

Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

FIP bias in a sigmoidal active region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D.; Brooks, D. H.; Démoulin, P.; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Green, L. M.; Steed, K.; Carlyle, J.

2014-01-01

We investigate first ionization potential (FIP) bias levels in an anemone active region (AR) - coronal hole (CH) complex using an abundance map derived from Hinode/EIS spectra. The detailed, spatially resolved abundance map has a large field of view covering 359'' × 485''. Plasma with high FIP bias, or coronal abundances, is concentrated at the footpoints of the AR loops whereas the surrounding CH has a low FIP bias, ~1, i.e. photospheric abundances. A channel of low FIP bias is located along the AR's main polarity inversion line containing a filament where ongoing flux cancellation is observed, indicating a bald patch magnetic topology characteristic of a sigmoid/flux rope configuration.

Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

PubMed Central

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O.; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases. PMID:24818607

Fluid simulation of the bias effect in inductive/capacitive discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yu-Ru; Research Group PLASMANT, Department of Chemistry, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, BE-2610 Antwerp; Gao, Fei

Computer simulations are performed for an argon inductively coupled plasma (ICP) with a capacitive radio-frequency bias power, to investigate the bias effect on the discharge mode transition and on the plasma characteristics at various ICP currents, bias voltages, and bias frequencies. When the bias frequency is fixed at 13.56 MHz and the ICP current is low, e.g., 6 A, the spatiotemporal averaged plasma density increases monotonically with bias voltage, and the bias effect is already prominent at a bias voltage of 90 V. The maximum of the ionization rate moves toward the bottom electrode, which indicates clearly the discharge mode transition in inductive/capacitivemore » discharges. At higher ICP currents, i.e., 11 and 13 A, the plasma density decreases first and then increases with bias voltage, due to the competing mechanisms between the ion acceleration power dissipation and the capacitive power deposition. At 11 A, the bias effect is still important, but it is noticeable only at higher bias voltages. At 13 A, the ionization rate is characterized by a maximum at the reactor center near the dielectric window at all selected bias voltages, which indicates that the ICP power, instead of the bias power, plays a dominant role under this condition, and no mode transition is observed. Indeed, the ratio of the bias power to the total power is lower than 0.4 over a wide range of bias voltages, i.e., 0–300 V. Besides the effect of ICP current, also the effect of various bias frequencies is investigated. It is found that the modulation of the bias power to the spatiotemporal distributions of the ionization rate at 2 MHz is strikingly different from the behavior observed at higher bias frequencies. Furthermore, the minimum of the plasma density appears at different bias voltages, i.e., 120 V at 2 MHz and 90 V at 27.12 MHz.« less

Autobiographical memory bias in social anxiety.

PubMed

Krans, Julie; de Bree, June; Bryant, Richard A

2014-01-01

In social anxiety the psychological self is closely related to the feared stimulus. Socially anxious individuals are, by definition, concerned about how the self is perceived and evaluated by others. As autobiographical memory is strongly related to views of the self it follows that biases in autobiographical memory play an important role in social anxiety. In the present study high (n = 19) and low (n = 29) socially anxious individuals were compared on autobiographical memory bias, current goals, and self-discrepancy. Individuals high in social anxiety showed a bias towards recalling more negative and more social anxiety-related autobiographical memories, reported more current goals related to overcoming social anxiety, and showed larger self-discrepancies. The pattern of results is largely in line with earlier research in individuals with PTSD and complicated grief. This suggests that the relation between autobiographical memory bias and the self is a potentially valuable trans-diagnostic factor.

Understanding Southern Ocean SST Trends in Historical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle

2017-04-01

Historical simulations with CMIP5 global climate models do not reproduce the observed 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) cooling, and most ensemble members predict gradual warming around Antarctica. In order to understand this discrepancy and the mechanisms behind the SO cooling, we analyze output from 19 CMIP5 models. For each ensemble member we estimate the characteristic responses of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions and linear convolution theory, we reconstruct the original CMIP5 simulations of 1979-2014 SO SST trends. We recover the CMIP5 ensemble mean trend, capture the intermodel spread, and reproduce very well the behavior of individual models. We thus suggest that GHG forcing and the SAM are major drivers of the simulated 1979-2014 SO SST trends. In consistence with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole, our results imply that the summer (DJF) and fall (MAM) SAM exert a particularly important effect on the SO SST. In some CMIP5 models the SO SST response to SAM partially counteracts the warming due to GHG forcing, while in other ensemble members the SAM-induced SO SST trends complement the warming effect of GHG forcing. The compensation between GHG and SAM-induced SO SST anomalies is model-dependent and is determined by multiple factors. Firstly, CMIP5 models have different characteristic SST step response functions to SAM. Kostov et al. (2016) relate these differences to biases in the models' climatological SO temperature gradients. Secondly, many CMIP5 historical simulations underestimate the observed positive trends in the DJF and MAM seasonal SAM indices. We show that this affects the models' ability to reproduce the observed SO cooling. Last but not least, CMIP5 models differ in their SO SST step response functions to GHG forcing. Understanding the diverse behavior of CMIP5 models helps shed light on the physical processes

Implicit bias in healthcare professionals: a systematic review.

PubMed

FitzGerald, Chloë; Hurst, Samia

2017-03-01

Implicit biases involve associations outside conscious awareness that lead to a negative evaluation of a person on the basis of irrelevant characteristics such as race or gender. This review examines the evidence that healthcare professionals display implicit biases towards patients. PubMed, PsychINFO, PsychARTICLE and CINAHL were searched for peer-reviewed articles published between 1st March 2003 and 31st March 2013. Two reviewers assessed the eligibility of the identified papers based on precise content and quality criteria. The references of eligible papers were examined to identify further eligible studies. Forty two articles were identified as eligible. Seventeen used an implicit measure (Implicit Association Test in fifteen and subliminal priming in two), to test the biases of healthcare professionals. Twenty five articles employed a between-subjects design, using vignettes to examine the influence of patient characteristics on healthcare professionals' attitudes, diagnoses, and treatment decisions. The second method was included although it does not isolate implicit attitudes because it is recognised by psychologists who specialise in implicit cognition as a way of detecting the possible presence of implicit bias. Twenty seven studies examined racial/ethnic biases; ten other biases were investigated, including gender, age and weight. Thirty five articles found evidence of implicit bias in healthcare professionals; all the studies that investigated correlations found a significant positive relationship between level of implicit bias and lower quality of care. The evidence indicates that healthcare professionals exhibit the same levels of implicit bias as the wider population. The interactions between multiple patient characteristics and between healthcare professional and patient characteristics reveal the complexity of the phenomenon of implicit bias and its influence on clinician-patient interaction. The most convincing studies from our review are those

Anchoring bias in online voting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zimo; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhou, Tao

2012-12-01

Voting online with explicit ratings could largely reflect people's preferences and objects' qualities, but ratings are always irrational, because they may be affected by many unpredictable factors like mood, weather and other people's votes. By analyzing two real systems, this paper reveals a systematic bias embedding in the individual decision-making processes, namely people tend to give a low rating after a low rating, as well as a high rating following a high rating. This so-called anchoring bias is validated via extensive comparisons with null models, and numerically speaking, the extent of bias decays with voting interval in a logarithmic form. Our findings could be applied in the design of recommender systems and considered as important complementary materials to previous knowledge about anchoring effects on financial trades, performance judgments, auctions, and so on.

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent

Non-Gaussian bias: insights from discrete density peaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desjacques, Vincent; Riotto, Antonio; Gong, Jinn-Ouk, E-mail: Vincent.Desjacques@unige.ch, E-mail: jinn-ouk.gong@apctp.org, E-mail: Antonio.Riotto@unige.ch

2013-09-01

Corrections induced by primordial non-Gaussianity to the linear halo bias can be computed from a peak-background split or the widespread local bias model. However, numerical simulations clearly support the prediction of the former, in which the non-Gaussian amplitude is proportional to the linear halo bias. To understand better the reasons behind the failure of standard Lagrangian local bias, in which the halo overdensity is a function of the local mass overdensity only, we explore the effect of a primordial bispectrum on the 2-point correlation of discrete density peaks. We show that the effective local bias expansion to peak clustering vastlymore » simplifies the calculation. We generalize this approach to excursion set peaks and demonstrate that the resulting non-Gaussian amplitude, which is a weighted sum of quadratic bias factors, precisely agrees with the peak-background split expectation, which is a logarithmic derivative of the halo mass function with respect to the normalisation amplitude. We point out that statistics of thresholded regions can be computed using the same formalism. Our results suggest that halo clustering statistics can be modelled consistently (in the sense that the Gaussian and non-Gaussian bias factors agree with peak-background split expectations) from a Lagrangian bias relation only if the latter is specified as a set of constraints imposed on the linear density field. This is clearly not the case of standard Lagrangian local bias. Therefore, one is led to consider additional variables beyond the local mass overdensity.« less

FIP BIAS EVOLUTION IN A DECAYING ACTIVE REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, D.; Yardley, S. L.; Driel-Gesztelyi, L. van

Solar coronal plasma composition is typically characterized by first ionization potential (FIP) bias. Using spectra obtained by Hinode’s EUV Imaging Spectrometer instrument, we present a series of large-scale, spatially resolved composition maps of active region (AR)11389. The composition maps show how FIP bias evolves within the decaying AR during the period 2012 January 4–6. Globally, FIP bias decreases throughout the AR. We analyzed areas of significant plasma composition changes within the decaying AR and found that small-scale evolution in the photospheric magnetic field is closely linked to the FIP bias evolution observed in the corona. During the AR’s decay phase,more » small bipoles emerging within supergranular cells reconnect with the pre-existing AR field, creating a pathway along which photospheric and coronal plasmas can mix. The mixing timescales are shorter than those of plasma enrichment processes. Eruptive activity also results in shifting the FIP bias closer to photospheric in the affected areas. Finally, the FIP bias still remains dominantly coronal only in a part of the AR’s high-flux density core. We conclude that in the decay phase of an AR’s lifetime, the FIP bias is becoming increasingly modulated by episodes of small-scale flux emergence, i.e., decreasing the AR’s overall FIP bias. Our results show that magnetic field evolution plays an important role in compositional changes during AR development, revealing a more complex relationship than expected from previous well-known Skylab results showing that FIP bias increases almost linearly with age in young ARs.« less

Biasing experiments on the Advanced Toroidal Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uckan, T.; Isler, R. C.; Jernigan, T. C.; Lyon, J. F.; Mioduszewski, P. K.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D. A.; Wilgen, J. B.; Aceto, S. C.; Zielinski, J. J.

1992-09-01

Biasing experiments have been carried out in 1 T plasmas with approximately 200 kW of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) in the current-fire Advanced Toroidal Facility (ATF) torsatron. Two rail limiters, one at the top and one at the bottom of the device, located at the last closed flux surface (LCFS), are, biased at positive and negative potentials with respect to the vacuum vessel. When the limiters are positively biased at up to 300 V and the plasma density is controlled with a significantly reduced gas feed, the H(sub alpha) radiation from both the limiter and the wall drops, indicating reduced particle recycling as a result of improved particle confinement. For bias voltages around +100 V, there is almost no change of plasma stored energy W(sub p), but W(sub p) then drops with the higher biasing voltages. Positive biasing has caused the core plasma density profile to become peaked and the electric field to become more negative inside the LCFS. At the same time, edge plasma fluctuations are reduced significantly and their power spectrum becomes less broad. The propagation direction of these electrostatic fluctuations reverses to the ion diamagnetic direction, and their wavelengths become longer. The resulting fluctuation-induced particle flux is also reduced. Power deposition on the limiters is lower as a result of reduced edge plasma density and temperature. Negative biasing yields somewhat less improvement in the particle confinement while having almost no apparent effect on W(sub p) or on the core and the edge plasma density and temperature profiles. Simultaneous measurements of the plasma potential profile indicate almost no significant change. Biasing has almost no effect on the intrinsic impurity levels in the plasma.

Comparing State SAT Scores: Problems, Biases, and Corrections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gohmann, Stephen F.

1988-01-01

One method to correct for selection bias in comparing Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores among states is presented, which is a modification of J. J. Heckman's Selection Bias Correction (1976, 1979). Empirical results suggest that sample selection bias is present in SAT score regressions. (SLD)

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) and Feline panleukopenia virus (FPV) codon bias analysis reveals a progressive adaptation to the new niche after the host jump.

PubMed

Franzo, Giovanni; Tucciarone, Claudia Maria; Cecchinato, Mattia; Drigo, Michele

2017-09-01

Based on virus dependence from host cell machinery, their codon usage is expected to show a strong relation with the host one. Even if this association has been stated, especially for bacteria viruses, the linkage is considered to be less consistent for more complex organisms and a codon bias adaptation after host jump has never been proven. Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) was selected as a model because it represents a well characterized case of host jump, originating from Feline panleukopenia virus (FPV). The current study demonstrates that the adaptation to specific tissue and host codon bias affected CPV-2 evolution. Remarkably, FPV and CPV-2 showed a higher closeness toward the codon bias of the tissues they display the higher tropism for. Moreover, after the host jump, a clear and significant trend was evidenced toward a reduction in the distance between CPV-2 and the dog codon bias over time. This evidence was not confirmed for FPV, suggesting that an equilibrium has been reached during the prolonged virus-host co-evolution. Additionally, the presence of an intermediate pattern displayed by some strains infecting wild species suggests that these could have facilitated the host switch also by acting on codon bias. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Unconscious Bias and Unintentional Racism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moule, Jean

2009-01-01

Unconscious biases affect one's relationships, whether they are fleeting relationships in airports or longer term relationships between teachers and students, teachers and parents, teachers and other educators. In this article, the author argues that understanding one's possible biases is essential for developing community in schools.…

Cosmic shear bias and calibration in dark energy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, A. N.; Kitching, T. D.

2018-07-01

With the advent of large-scale weak lensing surveys there is a need to understand how realistic, scale-dependent systematics bias cosmic shear and dark energy measurements, and how they can be removed. Here, we show how spatially varying image distortions are convolved with the shear field, mixing convergence E and B modes, and bias the observed shear power spectrum. In practise, many of these biases can be removed by calibration to data or simulations. The uncertainty in this calibration is marginalized over, and we calculate how this propagates into parameter estimation and degrades the dark energy Figure-of-Merit. We find that noise-like biases affect dark energy measurements the most, while spikes in the bias power have the least impact. We argue that, in order to remove systematic biases in cosmic shear surveys and maintain statistical power, effort should be put into improving the accuracy of the bias calibration rather than minimizing the size of the bias. In general, this appears to be a weaker condition for bias removal. We also investigate how to minimize the size of the calibration set for a fixed reduction in the Figure-of-Merit. Our results can be used to correctly model the effect of biases and calibration on a cosmic shear survey, assess their impact on the measurement of modified gravity and dark energy models, and to optimize survey and calibration requirements.

Racial bias shapes social reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Lindström, Björn; Selbing, Ida; Molapour, Tanaz; Olsson, Andreas

2014-03-01

Both emotional facial expressions and markers of racial-group belonging are ubiquitous signals in social interaction, but little is known about how these signals together affect future behavior through learning. To address this issue, we investigated how emotional (threatening or friendly) in-group and out-group faces reinforced behavior in a reinforcement-learning task. We asked whether reinforcement learning would be modulated by intergroup attitudes (i.e., racial bias). The results showed that individual differences in racial bias critically modulated reinforcement learning. As predicted, racial bias was associated with more efficiently learned avoidance of threatening out-group individuals. We used computational modeling analysis to quantitatively delimit the underlying processes affected by social reinforcement. These analyses showed that racial bias modulates the rate at which exposure to threatening out-group individuals is transformed into future avoidance behavior. In concert, these results shed new light on the learning processes underlying social interaction with racial-in-group and out-group individuals.

Affective forecasting bias in preschool children.

PubMed

Gautam, Shalini; Bulley, Adam; von Hippel, William; Suddendorf, Thomas

2017-07-01

Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, they systematically overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions relative to how they feel when these events actually occur. The developmental origin of this "intensity bias" has not yet been examined. Two studies were conducted to test the intensity bias in preschool children. In the first study, 5-year-olds (N=30) predicted how they would feel if they won or lost various games. Comparisons with subsequent self-reported feelings indicated that participants overestimated how sad they would feel to lose the games but did not overestimate their happiness from winning. The second study replicated this effect in another sample of 5-year-olds (n=34) and also found evidence of an intensity bias in 4-year-olds (n=30). These findings provide the first evidence of a negative intensity bias in affective forecasting among young children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Revealing the Cosmic Web-dependent Halo Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaohu; Zhang, Youcai; Lu, Tianhuan; Wang, Huiyuan; Shi, Feng; Tweed, Dylan; Li, Shijie; Luo, Wentao; Lu, Yi; Yang, Lei

2017-10-01

Halo bias is the one of the key ingredients of the halo models. It was shown at a given redshift to be only dependent, to the first order, on the halo mass. In this study, four types of cosmic web environments—clusters, filaments, sheets, and voids—are defined within a state-of-the-art high-resolution N-body simulation. Within these environments, we use both halo-dark matter cross correlation and halo-halo autocorrelation functions to probe the clustering properties of halos. The nature of the halo bias differs strongly between the four different cosmic web environments described here. With respect to the overall population, halos in clusters have significantly lower biases in the {10}11.0˜ {10}13.5 {h}-1 {M}⊙ mass range. In other environments, however, halos show extremely enhanced biases up to a factor 10 in voids for halos of mass ˜ {10}12.0 {h}-1 {M}⊙ . Such a strong cosmic web environment dependence in the halo bias may play an important role in future cosmological and galaxy formation studies. Within this cosmic web framework, the age dependency of halo bias is found to be only significant in clusters and filaments for relatively small halos ≲ {10}12.5 {h}-1 {M}⊙ .

Children's beliefs in reciprocation of biases and flexibility.

PubMed

Rennels, Jennifer L; Langlois, Judith H

2015-09-01

Children display positive and negative biases based on peers' attractiveness, gender, and race, but it is unclear whether children who associate positive attributes with certain peers also believe those peers think positively of them. In each domain (attractiveness, gender, and race), we measured 3- to 11-year-olds' (N = 102) biases and flexibility and their beliefs in reciprocity of bias and flexibility by asking who would think positively of them. Children could choose one of two unfamiliar peers (forced choice assessment) or had the additional options of choosing both peers or neither peer (non-forced choice assessment). We found that children often displayed beliefs in reciprocation, with beliefs in positive bias reciprocation from attractive girls showing the largest effect sizes. These beliefs were significantly correlated with and were predictive of children's positive and negative biases and flexibility. The duality of children's beliefs may contribute to strengthening their biases and segregating social groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bias Adjusted Precipitation Threat Scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesinger, F.

2008-04-01

Among the wide variety of performance measures available for the assessment of skill of deterministic precipitation forecasts, the equitable threat score (ETS) might well be the one used most frequently. It is typically used in conjunction with the bias score. However, apart from its mathematical definition the meaning of the ETS is not clear. It has been pointed out (Mason, 1989; Hamill, 1999) that forecasts with a larger bias tend to have a higher ETS. Even so, the present author has not seen this having been accounted for in any of numerous papers that in recent years have used the ETS along with bias "as a measure of forecast accuracy". A method to adjust the threat score (TS) or the ETS so as to arrive at their values that correspond to unit bias in order to show the model's or forecaster's accuracy in placing precipitation has been proposed earlier by the present author (Mesinger and Brill, the so-called dH/dF method). A serious deficiency however has since been noted with the dH/dF method in that the hypothetical function that it arrives at to interpolate or extrapolate the observed value of hits to unit bias can have values of hits greater than forecast when the forecast area tends to zero. Another method is proposed here based on the assumption that the increase in hits per unit increase in false alarms is proportional to the yet unhit area. This new method removes the deficiency of the dH/dF method. Examples of its performance for 12 months of forecasts by three NCEP operational models are given.

Investigating diagnostic bias in autism spectrum conditions: An item response theory analysis of sex bias in the AQ-10.

PubMed

Murray, Aja Louise; Allison, Carrie; Smith, Paula L; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Booth, Tom; Auyeung, Bonnie

2017-05-01

Diagnostic bias is a concern in autism spectrum conditions (ASC) where prevalence and presentation differ by sex. To ensure that females with ASC are not under-identified, it is important that ASC screening tools do not systematically underestimate autistic traits in females relative to males. We evaluated whether the AQ-10, a brief screen for ASC recommended by the National Institute of Clinical Excellence in cases of suspected ASC, exhibits such a bias. Using an item response theory approach, we evaluated differential item functioning and differential test functioning. We found that although individual items showed some sex bias, these biases at times favored males and at other times favored females. Thus, at the level of test scores the item-level biases cancelled out to give an unbiased overall score. Results support the continued use of the AQ-10 sum score in its current form; however, suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting responses to individual items. The nature of the item level biases could serve as a guide for future research into how ASC affects males and females differently. Autism Res 2017, 10: 790-800. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

2016-05-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

2014-01-01

Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

Decomposing Bias in Different Types of Simple Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Corey N.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

A biased opinion: Demonstration of cognitive bias on a fingerprint matching task through knowledge of DNA test results.

PubMed

Stevenage, Sarah V; Bennett, Alice

2017-07-01

One study is presented which explores the biasing effects of irrelevant contextual information on a fingerprint matching task. Bias was introduced by providing the outcomes of a DNA test relating to each fictitious case under consideration. This was engineered to suggest either a match, no match, or an inconclusive outcome, and was thus either consistent, misleading or unbiased depending on the ground truth of each fingerprint pair. The results suggested that, when the difficulty of the fingerprint matching task was measurably increased, participants became more vulnerable to the biasing information. Under such conditions, when performance was good, misleading evidence lowered accuracy, and when performance was weaker, consistent evidence improved accuracy. As such, the results confirmed existing demonstrations of cognitive bias from contextual information in the fingerprint task. Moreover, by taking a process-based approach, it became possible to articulate the concerns, and the potential solutions, at each stage of the workflow. The results offer value for the forensic science community in extending the evidence-base regarding cognitive bias, and in articulating routes to improve the credibility of fingerprint decisions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Recent Advances in Attention Bias Modification for Substance Addictions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Melvyn Weibin; Ying, Jiang Bo; Song, Guo; Fung, Daniel S. S.; Smith, Helen E.

2018-01-01

Research on attentional bias modification has increased since 2014. A recent meta-analysis demonstrates evidence for bias modification for substance disorders, including alcohol and tobacco use disorders. Several pharmacological trials have shown that pharmacological agents can attenuate and modify such attentional bias. The pharmacological trials that have appeared to date have produced mixed results, which has clinical implications. Developments in Internet and mobile technologies have transformed how attention bias modification is currently being achieved. There remains great potential for further research that examines the efficacy of technology-aided attention bias interventions. PMID:29617325

Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

PubMed

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

Do HIV Prevalence Trends in ANC Surveillance Represent Trends in the General Population in the ART Era? The Case of Manicaland, East Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Gregson, Simon; Dharmayat, Kanika; Pereboom, Monique; Takaruza, Albert; Mugurungi, Owen; Schur, Nadine; Nyamukapa, Constance A.

2016-01-01

Objective National estimates of HIV trends in generalised epidemics rely on HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance. We investigate whether HIV prevalence trends in ANC data reflect trends in men and women in the general population during the scale-up of anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods Trends in HIV prevalence in local ANC attendees and adults aged 15-49yrs in towns, agricultural estates, and villages were compared using five rounds of parallel ANC (N≈1,200) and general-population surveys (N≈10,000) and multi-variable log-linear regression. Changes in the age-pattern of HIV prevalence and the age-distribution of ANC attendees were compared with those in the general population. Age-specific pregnancy prevalence rates were compared by HIV infection and ART status. Results Cumulatively, from 1998-2000 to 2009-2011, HIV prevalence fell by 60.0% (95% CI, 51.1%-67.3%) in ANC surveillance data and by 34.3% (30.8%-37.7%) in the general population. Most of the difference arose following the introduction of ART (2006-2011). The estates and villages reflected this overall pattern but HIV prevalence in the towns was lower at local ANCs than in the general population, largely due to attendance by pregnant women from outlying (lower prevalence) areas. The ageing of people living with HIV in the general population (52.4% aged >35yrs, 2009-2011) was under-represented in the ANC data (12.6%) due to lower fertility in older and HIV-infected women. Conclusion After the introduction of ART in Manicaland, HIV prevalence declined more steeply in ANC surveillance data than in the general population. Models used for HIV estimates must reflect this change in bias. PMID:26372390

Bias magnification in ecologic studies: a methodological investigation

PubMed Central

Webster, Thomas F

2007-01-01

Background As ecologic studies are often inexpensive to conduct, consideration of the magnitude and direction of ecologic biases may be useful in both study design and sensitivity analysis of results. This paper examines three types of ecologic bias: confounding by group, effect measure modification by group, and non-differential exposure misclassification. Methods Bias of the risk difference on the individual and ecologic levels are compared using two-by-two tables, simple equations, and risk diagrams. Risk diagrams provide a convenient way to simultaneously display information from both levels. Results Confounding by group and effect measure modification by group act in the same direction on the individual and group levels, but have larger impact on the latter. The reduction in exposure variance caused by aggregation magnifies the individual level bias due to ignoring groups. For some studies, the magnification factor can be calculated from the ecologic data alone. Small magnification factors indicate little bias beyond that occurring at the individual level. Aggregation is also responsible for the different impacts of non-differential exposure misclassification on individual and ecologic studies. Conclusion The analytical tools developed here are useful in analyzing ecologic bias. The concept of bias magnification may be helpful in designing ecologic studies and performing sensitivity analysis of their results. PMID:17615079

Development of Heuristic Bias Detection in Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

2013-01-01

Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were…

A principal components analysis of dynamic spatial memory biases.

PubMed

Motes, Michael A; Hubbard, Timothy L; Courtney, Jon R; Rypma, Bart

2008-09-01

Research has shown that spatial memory for moving targets is often biased in the direction of implied momentum and implied gravity, suggesting that representations of the subjective experiences of these physical principles contribute to such biases. The present study examined the association between these spatial memory biases. Observers viewed targets that moved horizontally from left to right before disappearing or viewed briefly shown stationary targets. After a target disappeared, observers indicated the vanishing position of the target. Principal components analysis revealed that biases along the horizontal axis of motion loaded on separate components from biases along the vertical axis orthogonal to motion. The findings support the hypothesis that implied momentum and implied gravity biases have unique influences on spatial memory. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Gender Bias in Managerial Performance Ratings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Patrick A.; Saal, Frank E.

As more women enter the managerial ranks, organizations are finding it necessary to address the possibility of gender bias in managerial performance ratings. To investigate the existence of gender bias in managerial performance ratings as they relate to problem-solving strategies, 197 college students (46 percent female) and 127 managers (of those…

A self-agency bias in preschoolers' causal inferences

PubMed Central

Kushnir, Tamar; Wellman, Henry M.; Gelman, Susan A.

2013-01-01

Preschoolers' causal learning from intentional actions – causal interventions – is subject to a self-agency bias. We propose that this bias is evidence-based; it is responsive to causal uncertainty. In the current studies, two causes (one child-controlled, one experimenter-controlled) were associated with one or two effects, first independently, then simultaneously. When initial independent effects were probabilistic, and thus subsequent simultaneous actions were causally ambiguous, children showed a self-agency bias. Children showed no bias when initial effects were deterministic. Further controls establish that children's self-agency bias is not a wholesale preference but rather is influenced by uncertainty in causal evidence. These results demonstrate that children's own experience of action influences their causal learning, and suggest possible benefits in uncertain and ambiguous everyday learning contexts. PMID:19271843

Bias and undermatching in delinquent boys' verbal behavior as a function of their level of deviance.

PubMed

McDowell, J J; Caron, Marcia L

2010-05-01

Eighty-one 13- to 14-year-old boys at risk for delinquency (target boys) engaged in brief dyadic conversations with their peer friends. The target boys' verbal behavior was coded into two mutually exclusive content categories, rule-break talk and normative talk. Positive social responses from peer boys for each category of talk were also recorded, and were presumed to reinforce the target boys' verbal behavior. A measure of child deviance was available for each target boy. The generalized matching law was fitted to the target boys' response and time allocation data and provided an excellent description of their verbal behavior, with an expected degree of undermatching and strong bias in favor of normative talk. When the boys' data were separated into groups of increasing child deviance, the matching law continued to provide an excellent description of the boys' verbal behavior regardless of their level of deviance, but undermatching became more severe and bias favoring normative talk became less strong as child deviance increased. Based on a selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics from the basic science, it was suggested that the increasing degree of undermatching might be due to a decline in the reinforcing value of positive social responses with increasing child deviance. It was also suggested that the trend in the bias parameters might be due to different histories of reinforcement and punishment of rule-break and normative behavior for boys characterized by different levels of child deviance.

Bias and Undermatching in Delinquent Boys' Verbal Behavior As a Function of Their Level of Deviance

PubMed Central

McDowell, J.J; Caron, Marcia L

2010-01-01

Eighty-one 13- to 14-year-old boys at risk for delinquency (target boys) engaged in brief dyadic conversations with their peer friends. The target boys' verbal behavior was coded into two mutually exclusive content categories, rule-break talk and normative talk. Positive social responses from peer boys for each category of talk were also recorded, and were presumed to reinforce the target boys' verbal behavior. A measure of child deviance was available for each target boy. The generalized matching law was fitted to the target boys' response and time allocation data and provided an excellent description of their verbal behavior, with an expected degree of undermatching and strong bias in favor of normative talk. When the boys' data were separated into groups of increasing child deviance, the matching law continued to provide an excellent description of the boys' verbal behavior regardless of their level of deviance, but undermatching became more severe and bias favoring normative talk became less strong as child deviance increased. Based on a selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics from the basic science, it was suggested that the increasing degree of undermatching might be due to a decline in the reinforcing value of positive social responses with increasing child deviance. It was also suggested that the trend in the bias parameters might be due to different histories of reinforcement and punishment of rule-break and normative behavior for boys characterized by different levels of child deviance. PMID:21119857

Controllable exchange bias in Fe/metamagnetic FeRh bilayers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Ippei; Hamasaki, Yosuke; Itoh, Mitsuru

2014-10-27

We report the studies of tuning the exchange bias at ferromagnetic Fe/metamagnetic FeRh bilayer interfaces. Fe/FeRh(111) bilayers show exchange bias in the antiferromagnetic state of FeRh while no exchange bias occurs at Fe/FeRh(001) interface. The contrasting results are attributed to the spin configurations of FeRh at the interface, i.e., the uncompensated ferromagnetic spin configuration of FeRh appears exclusively for (111) orientation. The exchange bias disappears as the bilayers are warmed above the antiferromagnetic-ferromagnetic transition temperature. The direction of the exchange bias for Fe/FeRh(111) is also found to be perpendicular to the cooling-field direction, in contrast to the commonly observed directionmore » of exchange bias for ferromagnetic/antiferromagnetic interfaces. In view of these results, the exchange bias in Fe/FeRh bilayers with the (111) crystallographic orientation should be useful for the design of rapid writing technology for magnetic information devices.« less

Test Bias: An Objective Definition for Test Items.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durovic, Jerry J.

A test bias definition, applicable at the item-level of a test is presented. The definition conceptually equates test bias with measuring different things in different groups, and operationally equates test bias with a difference in item fit to the Rasch Model, greater than one, between groups. It is suggested that the proposed definition avoids…

Monocular Patching May Induce Ipsilateral “Where” Spatial Bias

PubMed Central

Chen, Peii; Erdahl, Lillian; Barrett, Anna M.

2009-01-01

Spatial bias is an asymmetry of perception and/or representation of spatial information —“where” bias —, or of spatially directed actions — “aiming” bias. A monocular patch may induce contralateral “where” spatial bias (the Sprague effect; Sprague (1966) Science, 153, 1544–1547). However, an ipsilateral patch-induced spatial bias may be observed if visual occlusion results in top-down, compensatory re-allocation of spatial perceptual or representational resources toward the region of visual deprivation. Tactile distraction from a monocular patch may also contribute to an ipsilateral bias. To examine these hypotheses, neurologically normal adults bisected horizontal lines at baseline without a patch, while wearing a monocular patch, and while wearing tactile-only and visual-only monocular occlusion. We fractionated “where” and “aiming” spatial bias components using a video apparatus to reverse visual feedback for half of the test trials. The results support monocular patch-induced ipsilateral “where” spatial errors, which are not consistent with the Sprague effect. Further, the present findings suggested that the induced ipsilateral bias may be primarily induced by visual deprivation, consistent with compensatory “where” resource re-allocation. PMID:19100274

Spin valves with spin-engineered domain-biasing scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Z. Q.; Pan, G.

2003-06-01

Synthetic spin-filter spin valves with spin-engineered biasing scheme "sub/Ta/NiFe/IrMn/NiFe/NOL/Cu1/CoFe/Cu2/CoFe/Ru/CoFe/IrMn/Ta" were developed. In the structure, the orthogonal magnetic configuration for biasing and pinning field was obtained by one-step magnetic annealing process by means of spin flop, which eliminated the need for two antiferromagnetic materials with distinctively different blocking temperatures and two-step magnetic annealing as in conventional exchange biasing scheme. The longitudinal domain biasing of spin valves was achieved by using interlayer coupling field through Cu1 spacer. By adjusting the thickness of the Cu1 layer, the interlayer coupling biasing field can provide domain stabilization and was sufficiently strong to constrain the magnetization in coherent rotation. This can prevent Barkhausen noises associated with magnetization reversal. We report here a proof of concept study of such a domain-biasing scheme, which has its important technological applications in nanoscale spin valve and magnetic tunneling junction read heads and other spintronic devices.

Accommodating Sensor Bias in MRAC for State Tracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.

2011-01-01

The problem of accommodating unknown sensor bias is considered in a direct model reference adaptive control (MRAC) setting for state tracking using state feedback. Sensor faults can occur during operation, and if the biased state measurements are directly used with a standard MRAC control law, neither closed-loop signal boundedness, nor asymptotic tracking can be guaranteed and the resulting tracking errors may be unbounded or unacceptably large. A modified MRAC law is proposed, which combines a bias estimator with control gain adaptation, and it is shown that signal boundedness can be accomplished, although the tracking error may not go to zero. Further, for the case wherein an asymptotically stable sensor bias estimator is available, an MRAC control law is proposed to accomplish asymptotic tracking and signal boundedness. Such a sensor bias estimator can be designed if additional sensor measurements are available, as illustrated for the case wherein bias is present in the rate gyro and airspeed measurements. Numerical example results are presented to illustrate each of the schemes.

Method for revealing biases in precision mass measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vabson, V.; Vendt, R.; Kübarsepp, T.; Noorma, M.

2013-02-01

A practical method for the quantification of systematic errors of large-scale automatic comparators is presented. This method is based on a comparison of the performance of two different comparators. First, the differences of 16 equal partial loads of 1 kg are measured with a high-resolution mass comparator featuring insignificant bias and 1 kg maximum load. At the second stage, a large-scale comparator is tested by using combined loads with known mass differences. Comparing the different results, the biases of any comparator can be easily revealed. These large-scale comparator biases are determined over a 16-month period, and for the 1 kg loads, a typical pattern of biases in the range of ±0.4 mg is observed. The temperature differences recorded inside the comparator concurrently with mass measurements are found to remain within a range of ±30 mK, which obviously has a minor effect on the detected biases. Seasonal variations imply that the biases likely arise mainly due to the functioning of the environmental control at the measurement location.

Increased latencies to respond in a judgment bias test are not associated with pessimistic biases in rats.

PubMed

Barker, Timothy Hugh; Howarth, Gordon Stanley; Whittaker, Alexandra Louise

2018-01-01

Extinction of learning is a common, yet under-reported limitation of judgment bias testing methods Repeated exposure to the ambiguous probe of a judgment bias paradigm encourages the animal to cease display of the required behaviours. However, there remains a need to repeatedly test animals to achieve statistical power. A delicate balance therefore needs to be struck between over- and under-exposure of the animals to the test conditions. This study presents the data of rats, a common animal subject of judgment bias testing. Rats were exposed to the ambiguous probe of a common, active-choice judgment bias test for 11 consecutive days. There was a significant increase in the latency to respond to the ambiguous probe following day 8, with no significant increase experienced for either the positive or less-positive probes. Following day 8 there was a significant increase in both optimistic and pessimistic latencies in response to the ambiguous probe. Therefore, repeated exposure to the ambiguous probe caused an increased latency in response even though optimistic interpretations were recorded. This implies that the use of response latency alone as a measure in judgment bias testing can falsely identify pessimism. Researchers should modify experimental design to include both choice and latency measures. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias in effect size of systemic lupus erythematosus susceptibility loci across Europe: a case-control study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction We aimed to investigate whether the effect size of the systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) risk alleles varies across European subpopulations. Methods European SLE patients (n = 1,742) and ethnically matched healthy controls (n = 2,101) were recruited at 17 centres from 10 different countries. Only individuals with self-reported ancestry from the country of origin were included. In addition, participants were genotyped for top ancestry informative markers and for 25 SLE associated SNPs. The results were used to compare effect sizes between the Central Eureopan and Southern European subgroups. Results Twenty of the 25 SNPs showed independent association with SLE, These SNPs showed a significant bias to larger effect sizes in the Southern subgroup, with 15/20 showing this trend (P = 0.019) and a larger mean odds ratio of the 20 SNPs (1.46 vs. 1.34, P = 0.02) as well as a larger difference in the number of risk alleles (2.06 vs. 1.63, P = 0.027) between SLE patients and controls than for Central Europeans. This bias was reflected in a very significant difference in the cumulative genetic risk score (4.31 vs. 3.48, P = 1.8 × 10-32). Effect size bias was accompanied by a lower number of SLE risk alleles in the Southern subjects, both patients and controls, the difference being more marked between the controls (P = 1.1 × 10-8) than between the Southern and Central European patients (P = 0.016). Seven of these SNPs showed significant allele frequency clines. Conclusion Our findings showed a bias to larger effect sizes of SLE loci in the Southern Europeans relative to the Central Europeans together with clines of SLE risk allele frequencies. These results indicate the need to study risk allele clines and the implications of the polygenic model of inheritance in SLE. PMID:22541939

Biasing of Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers.

PubMed

Caliano, Giosue; Matrone, Giulia; Savoia, Alessandro Stuart

2017-02-01

Capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (CMUTs) represent an effective alternative to piezoelectric transducers for medical ultrasound imaging applications. They are microelectromechanical devices fabricated using silicon micromachining techniques, developed in the last two decades in many laboratories. The interest for this novel transducer technology relies on its full compatibility with standard integrated circuit technology that makes it possible to integrate on the same chip the transducers and the electronics, thus enabling the realization of extremely low-cost and high-performance devices, including both 1-D or 2-D arrays. Being capacitive transducers, CMUTs require a high bias voltage to be properly operated in pulse-echo imaging applications. The typical bias supply residual ripple of high-quality high-voltage (HV) generators is in the millivolt range, which is comparable with the amplitude of the received echo signals, and it is particularly difficult to minimize. The aim of this paper is to analyze the classical CMUT biasing circuits, highlighting the features of each one, and to propose two novel HV generator architectures optimized for CMUT biasing applications. The first circuit proposed is an ultralow-residual ripple (<5 [Formula: see text]) HV generator that uses an extremely stable sinusoidal power oscillator topology. The second circuit employs a commercially available integrated step-up converter characterized by a particularly efficient switching topology. The circuit is used to bias the CMUT by charging a buffer capacitor synchronously with the pulsing sequence, thus reducing the impact of the switching noise on the received echo signals. The small area of the circuit (about 1.5 cm 2 ) makes it possible to generate the bias voltage inside the probe, very close to the CMUT, making the proposed solution attractive for portable applications. Measurements and experiments are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approaches

A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine.

PubMed

Risberg, Gunilla; Johansson, Eva E; Hamberg, Katarina

2009-08-03

During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers.

Addressing Unconscious Bias: Steps toward an Inclusive Scientific Culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Abigail

2011-01-01

In this talk I will outline the nature of unconscious bias, as it operates to exclude or marginalize some participants in the scientific community. I will show how bias results from non-conscious expectations about certain groups of people, including scientists and astronomers. I will outline scientific research in psychology, sociology and economics that has identified the impact these expectations have on interpersonal judgments that are at the heart of assessment of individuals' qualifications. This research helps us understand not only how bias operates within a single instance of evaluation, but how evaluation bias can accumulate over a career if not checked, creating an appearance of confirmation of biased expectations. Some research has focused on how best to interrupt and mitigate unconscious bias, and many institutions--including the University of Michigan--have identified strategic interventions at key points of institutional decision-making (particularly hiring, annual review, and promotion) that can make a difference. The NSF ADVANCE Institutional Transformation program encouraged institutions to draw on the social science literature to create experimental approaches to addressing unconscious bias. I will outline four approaches to intervention that have arisen through the ADVANCE program: (1) systematic education that increases awareness among decisionmakers of how evaluation bias operates; (2) development of practices that mitigate the operation of bias even when it is out of conscious awareness; (3) creation of institutional policies that routinize and sanction these practices; and (4) holding leaders accountable for these implementation of these new practices and policies. Although I will focus on ways to address unconscious bias within scientific institutions (colleges and universities, laboratories and research centers, etc.), I will close by considering how scientific organizations can address unconscious bias and contribute to creating an

Attentional bias modification encourages healthy eating.

PubMed

Kakoschke, Naomi; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2014-01-01

The continual exposure to unhealthy food cues in the environment encourages poor dietary habits, in particular consuming too much fat and sugar, and not enough fruit and vegetables. According to Berridge's (2009) model of food reward, unhealthy eating is a behavioural response to biased attentional processing. The present study used an established attentional bias modification paradigm to discourage the consumption of unhealthy food and instead promote healthy eating. Participants were 146 undergraduate women who were randomly assigned to two groups: one was trained to direct their attention toward pictures of healthy food ('attend healthy' group) and the other toward unhealthy food ('attend unhealthy' group). It was found that participants trained to attend to healthy food cues demonstrated an increased attentional bias for such cues and ate relatively more of the healthy than unhealthy snacks compared to the 'attend unhealthy' group. Theoretically, the results support the postulated link between biased attentional processing and consumption (Berridge, 2009). At a practical level, they offer potential scope for interventions that focus on eating well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic whole number bias in humans.

PubMed

Alonso-Díaz, Santiago; Piantadosi, Steven T; Hayden, Benjamin Y; Cantlon, Jessica F

2018-06-25

Humans have great difficulty comparing quotients including fractions, proportions, and probabilities and often erroneously isolate the whole numbers of the numerators and denominators to compare them. Some have argued that the whole number bias is a compensatory strategy to deal with difficult comparisons. We examined adult humans' preferences for gambles that differed only in numerosity, and not in factors that influence their expected value (probabilities and stakes). Subjects consistently preferred gambles with more winning balls to ones with fewer, even though the probabilities were mathematically identical, replicating prior results. In a second experiment, we found that subjects accurately represented the relative probabilities of the choice options during rapid nonverbal probability judgments but nonetheless showed biases based on whole numbers. We mathematically formalized and quantitatively evaluated cognitive rules based on existing hypotheses that attempt to explain subjects' whole number biases during quotient comparisons. The results show that the whole number bias is intrinsic to the way humans solve quotient comparisons rather than a compensatory strategy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Information bias in health research: definition, pitfalls, and adjustment methods

PubMed Central

Althubaiti, Alaa

2016-01-01

As with other fields, medical sciences are subject to different sources of bias. While understanding sources of bias is a key element for drawing valid conclusions, bias in health research continues to be a very sensitive issue that can affect the focus and outcome of investigations. Information bias, otherwise known as misclassification, is one of the most common sources of bias that affects the validity of health research. It originates from the approach that is utilized to obtain or confirm study measurements. This paper seeks to raise awareness of information bias in observational and experimental research study designs as well as to enrich discussions concerning bias problems. Specifying the types of bias can be essential to limit its effects and, the use of adjustment methods might serve to improve clinical evaluation and health care practice. PMID:27217764

Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1988-01-01

The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

Trends in the Sea Ice Cover Using Enhanced and Compatible AMSR-E, SSM/I and SMMR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Nishio, Fumihiko

2007-01-01

Arguably, the most remarkable manifestation of change in the polar regions is the rapid decline (of about -10 %/decade) in the Arctic perennial ice cover. Changes in the global sea ice cover, however, are more modest, being slightly positive in the Southern Hemisphere and slightly negative in the Northern Hemisphere, the significance of which has not been adequately assessed because of unknown errors in the satellite historical data. We take advantage of the recent and more accurate AMSR-E data to evaluate the true seasonal and interannual variability of the sea ice cover, assess the accuracy of historical data, and determine the real trend. Consistently derived ice concentrations from AMSR-E, SSM/I, and SMMR data were analyzed and a slight bias is observed between AMSR-E and SSM/I data mainly because of differences in resolution. Analysis of the combine SMMR, SSM/I and AMSR-E data set, with the bias corrected, shows that the trends in extent and area of sea ice in the Arctic region is -3.4 +/- 0.2 and -4.0 +/- 0.2 % per decade, respectively, while the corresponding values for the Antarctic region is 0.9 +/- 0.2 and 1.7 .+/- 0.3 % per decade. The higher resolution of the AMSR-E provides an improved determination of the location of the ice edge while the SSM/I data show an ice edge about 6 to 12 km further away from the ice pack. Although the current record of AMSR-E is less than 5 years, the data can be utilized in combination with historical data for more accurate determination of the variability and trends in the ice cover.

Cognitive bias in action: evidence for a reciprocal relation between confirmation bias and fear in children.

PubMed

Remmerswaal, Danielle; Huijding, Jorg; Bouwmeester, Samantha; Brouwer, Marlies; Muris, Peter

2014-03-01

Some cognitive models propose that information processing biases and fear are reciprocally related. This idea has never been formally tested. Therefore, this study investigated the existence of a vicious circle by which confirmation bias and fear exacerbate each other. One-hundred-and-seventy-one school children (8-13 years) were first provided with threatening, ambiguous, or positive information about an unknown animal. Then they completed a computerized information search task during which they could collect additional (negative, positive, or neutral) information about the novel animal. Because fear levels were repeatedly assessed during the task, it was possible to examine the reciprocal relationship between confirmation bias and fear. A reciprocal relation of mutual reinforcement was found between confirmation bias and fear over the course of the experiment: increases in fear predicted subsequent increases in the search for negative information, and increases in the search for negative information further enhanced fear on a later point-in-time. In addition, the initial information given about the animals successfully induced diverging fear levels in the children, and determined their first inclination to search for additional information. As this study employed a community sample of primary school children, future research should test whether these results can be generalized to clinically anxious youth. These findings provide first support for the notion that fearful individuals may become trapped in a vicious circle in which fear and a fear-related confirmation bias mutually strengthen each other, thereby maintaining the anxiety pathology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minimizing Bias When Assessing Student Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinke, Pamela; Fitch, Peggy

2017-01-01

Bias is part of the human condition and becoming aware of how to avoid bias will help to ensure greater accuracy in the work of assessment. In this paper the authors discuss three different theoretical frameworks that can be applied when assessing student work for cognitive skills such as critical thinking and problem solving. Each of the…

Systematic Error Modeling and Bias Estimation

PubMed Central

Zhang, Feihu; Knoll, Alois

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the statistic properties of the systematic error in terms of range and bearing during the transformation process. Furthermore, we rely on a weighted nonlinear least square method to calculate the biases based on the proposed models. The results show the high performance of the proposed approach for error modeling and bias estimation. PMID:27213386

Gender Bias: Inequities in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Love, Reeve

1993-01-01

This article explores sex bias in curricular materials for elementary and secondary schools. Sex bias is defined as a set of unconscious behaviors that, in themselves, are often trivial and generally favorable. Although these behaviors do not hurt if they happen only once, they can cause a great deal of harm if a pattern develops that serves to…

Undercontribution bias in health care spending account decisions.

PubMed

Schweitzer, M E; Hershey, J C

1997-01-01

Results from this work describe 239 responses to a mailed survey regarding employee benefits decisions at a large eastern university. The primary objective of this work is to test for an undercontribution bias in health care financing decisions. The results establish the existence of an undercontribution bias in both actual employee decisions and hypothetical flexible spending account contribution decisions. We describe this bias within the context of related biases including loss aversion, mental accounting, status quo and omission biases. Surprisingly, we find a significant order effect in this study and posit that preference construction in this context is an active, reference-dependent process. In addition, results from this work demonstrate the endogenous nature of health care flexible spending account expenditures. The results have important implications both for the descriptive framework of and the normative solution to the flexible spending account contribution decision.

Sources of bias in clinical ethics case deliberation.

PubMed

Magelssen, Morten; Pedersen, Reidar; Førde, Reidun

2014-10-01

A central task for clinical ethics consultants and committees (CEC) is providing analysis of, and advice on, prospective or retrospective clinical cases. However, several kinds of biases may threaten the integrity, relevance or quality of the CEC's deliberation. Bias should be identified and, if possible, reduced or counteracted. This paper provides a systematic classification of kinds of bias that may be present in a CEC's case deliberation. Six kinds of bias are discussed, with examples, as to their significance and risk factors. Possible remedies are suggested. The potential for bias is greater when the case deliberation is performed by an individual ethics consultant than when an entire clinical ethics committee is involved. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Approach bias for food cues in obese individuals.

PubMed

Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the existence of an approach bias for food cues in obese individuals. A community sample of 56 obese women and 56 normal weight controls completed an approach-avoidance variant of the implicit association task. The obese participants were faster to respond to trials that paired food words with approach words, and trials that paired non-food words with avoid words, than the converse pairings, thus, demonstrating an approach bias for food. This bias was evident for both high caloric and low caloric food words, and was not attributable to a state of deprivation or feelings of hunger. By contrast, the normal weight controls did not show any such bias. The results are consistent with recent neurocognitive perspectives of obesity. At a practical level, approach biases for food may present a potential target for modifying (excessive) food intake.

Measurement of food-related approach-avoidance biases: Larger biases when food stimuli are task relevant.

PubMed

Lender, Anja; Meule, Adrian; Rinck, Mike; Brockmeyer, Timo; Blechert, Jens

2018-06-01

Strong implicit responses to food have evolved to avoid energy depletion but contribute to overeating in today's affluent environments. The Approach-Avoidance Task (AAT) supposedly assesses implicit biases in response to food stimuli: Participants push pictures on a monitor "away" or pull them "near" with a joystick that controls a corresponding image zoom. One version of the task couples movement direction with image content-independent features, for example, pulling blue-framed images and pushing green-framed images regardless of content ('irrelevant feature version'). However, participants might selectively attend to this feature and ignore image content and, thus, such a task setup might underestimate existing biases. The present study tested this attention account by comparing two irrelevant feature versions of the task with either a more peripheral (image frame color: green vs. blue) or central (small circle vs. cross overlaid over the image content) image feature as response instruction to a 'relevant feature version', in which participants responded to the image content, thus making it impossible to ignore that content. Images of chocolate-containing foods and of objects were used, and several trait and state measures were acquired to validate the obtained biases. Results revealed a robust approach bias towards food only in the relevant feature condition. Interestingly, a positive correlation with state chocolate craving during the task was found when all three conditions were combined, indicative of criterion validity of all three versions. However, no correlations were found with trait chocolate craving. Results provide a strong case for the relevant feature version of the AAT for bias measurement. They also point to several methodological avenues for future research around selective attention in the irrelevant versions and task validity regarding trait vs. state variables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specificity and overlap of attention and memory biases in depression.

PubMed

Marchetti, Igor; Everaert, Jonas; Dainer-Best, Justin; Loeys, Tom; Beevers, Christopher G; Koster, Ernst H W

2018-01-01

Attentional and memory biases are viewed as crucial cognitive processes underlying symptoms of depression. However, it is still unclear whether these two biases are uniquely related to depression or whether they show substantial overlap. We investigated the degree of specificity and overlap of attentional and memory biases for depressotypic stimuli in relation to depression and anxiety by means of meta-analytic commonality analysis. By including four published studies, we considered a pool of 463 healthy and subclinically depressed individuals, different experimental paradigms, and different psychological measures. Memory bias is reliably and strongly related to depression and, specifically, to symptoms of negative mood, worthlessness, feelings of failure, and pessimism. Memory bias for negative information was minimally related to anxiety. Moreover, neither attentional bias nor the overlap between attentional and memory biases were significantly related to depression. Limitations include cross-sectional nature of the study. Our study showed that, across different paradigms and psychological measures, memory bias (and not attentional bias) represents a primary mechanism in depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Four Reasons to Question the Accuracy of a Biotic Index; the Risk of Metric Bias and the Scope to Improve Accuracy

PubMed Central

Monaghan, Kieran A.

2016-01-01

Natural ecological variability and analytical design can bias the derived value of a biotic index through the variable influence of indicator body-size, abundance, richness, and ascribed tolerance scores. Descriptive statistics highlight this risk for 26 aquatic indicator systems; detailed analysis is provided for contrasting weighted-average indices applying the example of the BMWP, which has the best supporting data. Differences in body size between taxa from respective tolerance classes is a common feature of indicator systems; in some it represents a trend ranging from comparatively small pollution tolerant to larger intolerant organisms. Under this scenario, the propensity to collect a greater proportion of smaller organisms is associated with negative bias however, positive bias may occur when equipment (e.g. mesh-size) selectively samples larger organisms. Biotic indices are often derived from systems where indicator taxa are unevenly distributed along the gradient of tolerance classes. Such skews in indicator richness can distort index values in the direction of taxonomically rich indicator classes with the subsequent degree of bias related to the treatment of abundance data. The misclassification of indicator taxa causes bias that varies with the magnitude of the misclassification, the relative abundance of misclassified taxa and the treatment of abundance data. These artifacts of assessment design can compromise the ability to monitor biological quality. The statistical treatment of abundance data and the manipulation of indicator assignment and class richness can be used to improve index accuracy. While advances in methods of data collection (i.e. DNA barcoding) may facilitate improvement, the scope to reduce systematic bias is ultimately limited to a strategy of optimal compromise. The shortfall in accuracy must be addressed by statistical pragmatism. At any particular site, the net bias is a probabilistic function of the sample data, resulting in an

Bias correction of satellite-based rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-04-01

Limitation in hydro-meteorological data availability in many catchments limits the possibility of reliable hydrological analyses especially for near-real-time predictions. However, the variety of satellite based and meteorological model products for rainfall provides new opportunities. Often times the accuracy of these rainfall products, when compared to rain gauge measurements, is not impressive. The systematic differences of these rainfall products from gauge observations can be partially compensated by adopting a bias (error) correction. Many of such methods correct the satellite based rainfall data by comparing their mean value to the mean value of rain gauge data. Refined approaches may also first find out a suitable time scale at which different data products are better comparable and then employ a bias correction at that time scale. More elegant methods use quantile-to-quantile bias correction, which however, assumes that the available (often limited) sample size can be useful in comparing probabilities of different rainfall products. Analysis of rainfall data and understanding of the process of its generation reveals that the bias in different rainfall data varies in space and time. The time aspect is sometimes taken into account by considering the seasonality. In this research we have adopted a bias correction approach that takes into account the variation of rainfall in space and time. A clustering based approach is employed in which every new data point (e.g. of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) is first assigned to a specific cluster of that data product and then, by identifying the corresponding cluster of gauge data, the bias correction specific to that cluster is adopted. The presented approach considers the space-time variation of rainfall and as a result the corrected data is more realistic. Keywords: bias correction, rainfall, TRMM, satellite rainfall

Contextual modulation of biases in face recognition.

PubMed

Felisberti, Fatima Maria; Pavey, Louisa

2010-09-23

The ability to recognize the faces of potential cooperators and cheaters is fundamental to social exchanges, given that cooperation for mutual benefit is expected. Studies addressing biases in face recognition have so far proved inconclusive, with reports of biases towards faces of cheaters, biases towards faces of cooperators, or no biases at all. This study attempts to uncover possible causes underlying such discrepancies. Four experiments were designed to investigate biases in face recognition during social exchanges when behavioral descriptors (prosocial, antisocial or neutral) embedded in different scenarios were tagged to faces during memorization. Face recognition, measured as accuracy and response latency, was tested with modified yes-no, forced-choice and recall tasks (N = 174). An enhanced recognition of faces tagged with prosocial descriptors was observed when the encoding scenario involved financial transactions and the rules of the social contract were not explicit (experiments 1 and 2). Such bias was eliminated or attenuated by making participants explicitly aware of "cooperative", "cheating" and "neutral/indifferent" behaviors via a pre-test questionnaire and then adding such tags to behavioral descriptors (experiment 3). Further, in a social judgment scenario with descriptors of salient moral behaviors, recognition of antisocial and prosocial faces was similar, but significantly better than neutral faces (experiment 4). The results highlight the relevance of descriptors and scenarios of social exchange in face recognition, when the frequency of prosocial and antisocial individuals in a group is similar. Recognition biases towards prosocial faces emerged when descriptors did not state the rules of a social contract or the moral status of a behavior, and they point to the existence of broad and flexible cognitive abilities finely tuned to minor changes in social context.

Constraints on a scale-dependent bias from galaxy clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amendola, L.; Menegoni, E.; Di Porto, C.; Corsi, M.; Branchini, E.

2017-01-01

We forecast the future constraints on scale-dependent parametrizations of galaxy bias and their impact on the estimate of cosmological parameters from the power spectrum of galaxies measured in a spectroscopic redshift survey. For the latter we assume a wide survey at relatively large redshifts, similar to the planned Euclid survey, as the baseline for future experiments. To assess the impact of the bias we perform a Fisher matrix analysis, and we adopt two different parametrizations of scale-dependent bias. The fiducial models for galaxy bias are calibrated using mock catalogs of H α emitting galaxies mimicking the expected properties of the objects that will be targeted by the Euclid survey. In our analysis we have obtained two main results. First of all, allowing for a scale-dependent bias does not significantly increase the errors on the other cosmological parameters apart from the rms amplitude of density fluctuations, σ8 , and the growth index γ , whose uncertainties increase by a factor up to 2, depending on the bias model adopted. Second, we find that the accuracy in the linear bias parameter b0 can be estimated to within 1%-2% at various redshifts regardless of the fiducial model. The nonlinear bias parameters have significantly large errors that depend on the model adopted. Despite this, in the more realistic scenarios departures from the simple linear bias prescription can be detected with a ˜2 σ significance at each redshift explored. Finally, we use the Fisher matrix formalism to assess the impact od assuming an incorrect bias model and find that the systematic errors induced on the cosmological parameters are similar or even larger than the statistical ones.

A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine

PubMed Central

Risberg, Gunilla; Johansson, Eva E; Hamberg, Katarina

2009-01-01

During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers. PMID:19646289

Implicit Racial Bias in Medical School Admissions.

PubMed

Capers, Quinn; Clinchot, Daniel; McDougle, Leon; Greenwald, Anthony G

2017-03-01

Implicit white race preference has been associated with discrimination in the education, criminal justice, and health care systems and could impede the entry of African Americans into the medical profession, where they and other minorities remain underrepresented. Little is known about implicit racial bias in medical school admissions committees. To measure implicit racial bias, all 140 members of the Ohio State University College of Medicine (OSUCOM) admissions committee took the black-white implicit association test (IAT) prior to the 2012-2013 cycle. Results were collated by gender and student versus faculty status. To record their impressions of the impact of the IAT on the admissions process, members took a survey at the end of the cycle, which 100 (71%) completed. All groups (men, women, students, faculty) displayed significant levels of implicit white preference; men (d = 0.697) and faculty (d = 0.820) had the largest bias measures (P < .001). Most survey respondents (67%) thought the IAT might be helpful in reducing bias, 48% were conscious of their individual results when interviewing candidates in the next cycle, and 21% reported knowledge of their IAT results impacted their admissions decisions in the subsequent cycle. The class that matriculated following the IAT exercise was the most diverse in OSUCOM's history at that time. Future directions include preceding and following the IAT with more robust reflection and education on unconscious bias. The authors join others in calling for an examination of bias at all levels of academic medicine.

A normality bias in legal decision making.

PubMed

Prentice, Robert A; Koehler, Jonathan J

2003-03-01

It is important to understand how legal fact finders determine causation and assign blame. However, this process is poorly understood. Among the psychological factors that affect decision makers are an omission bias (a tendency to blame actions more than inactions [omissions] for bad results), and a normality bias (a tendency to react more strongly to bad outcomes that spring from abnormal rather than normal circumstances). The omission and normality biases often reinforce one another when inaction preserves the normal state and when action creates an abnormal state. But what happens when these biases push in opposite directions as they would when inaction promotes an abnormal state or when action promotes a normal state? Which bias exerts the stronger influence on the judgments and behaviors of legal decision makers? The authors address this issue in two controlled experiments. One experiment involves medical malpractice and the other involves stockbroker negligence. They find that jurors pay much more attention to the normality of conditions than to whether those conditions arose through acts or omissions. Defendants who followed a nontraditional medical treatment regime or who chose a nontraditional stock portfolio received more blame and more punishment for bad outcomes than did defendants who obtained equally poor results after recommending a traditional medical regime or a traditional stock portfolio. Whether these recommendations entailed an action or an omission was essentially irrelevant. The Article concludes with a discussion of the implications of a robust normality bias for American jurisprudence.

Visual detail about the body modulates tactile localisation biases.

PubMed

Margolis, Aaron N; Longo, Matthew R

2015-02-01

The localisation of tactile stimuli requires the integration of visual and somatosensory inputs within an internal representation of the body surface and is prone to consistent bias. Joints may play a role in segmenting such internal body representations, and may therefore influence tactile localisation biases, although the nature of this influence remains unclear. Here, we investigate the relationship between conceptual knowledge of joint locations and tactile localisation biases on the hand. In one task, participants localised tactile stimuli applied to the dorsum of their hand. A distal localisation bias was observed in all participants, consistent with previous results. We also manipulated the availability of visual information during this task, to determine whether the absence of this information could account for the distal bias observed here and by Mancini et al. (Neuropsychologia 49:1194-1201, 2011). The observed distal bias increased in magnitude when visual information was restricted, without a corresponding decrease in precision. In a separate task, the same participants indicated, from memory, knuckle locations on a silhouette image of their hand. Analogous distal biases were also seen in the knuckle localisation task. The accuracy of conceptual joint knowledge was not correlated with tactile localisation bias magnitude, although a similarity in observed bias direction suggests that both tasks may rely on a common, higher-order body representation. These results also suggest that distortions of conceptual body representation may be more common in healthy individuals than previously thought.

Attention bias to threat faces in severe mood dysregulation.

PubMed

Hommer, Rebecca E; Meyer, Allison; Stoddard, Joel; Connolly, Megan E; Mogg, Karin; Bradley, Brendan P; Pine, Daniel S; Leibenluft, Ellen; Brotman, Melissa A

2014-07-01

We used a dot-probe paradigm to examine attention bias toward threat (i.e., angry) and happy face stimuli in severe mood dysregulation (SMD) versus healthy comparison (HC) youth. The tendency to allocate attention to threat is well established in anxiety and other disorders of negative affect. SMD is characterized by the negative affect of irritability, and longitudinal studies suggest childhood irritability predicts adult anxiety and depression. Therefore, it is important to study pathophysiologic connections between irritability and anxiety disorders. SMD patients (N = 74) and HC youth (N = 42) completed a visual probe paradigm to assess attention bias to emotional faces. Diagnostic interviews were conducted and measures of irritability and anxiety were obtained in patients. SMD youth differed from HC youth in having a bias toward threatening faces (P < .01). Threat bias was positively correlated with the severity of the SMD syndrome and depressive symptoms; degree of threat bias did not differ between SMD youth with and without co-occurring anxiety disorders or depression. SMD and HC youth did not differ in bias toward or away from happy faces. SMD youth demonstrate an attention bias toward threat, with greater threat bias associated with higher levels of SMD symptom severity. Our findings suggest that irritability may share a pathophysiological link with anxiety and depressive disorders. This finding suggests the value of exploring further whether attention bias modification treatments that are effective for anxiety are also helpful in the treatment of irritability. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Jumping to conclusions and delusions: the impact of discussion of the bias on the bias.

PubMed

Warman, Debbie M; Martin, Joel M; Lysaker, Paul

2013-11-01

The present study was an investigation of the impact a brief intervention designed to raise awareness of a cognitive bias known to be robust for individuals with delusions has on the reasoning strategies of individuals with delusions. Individuals with delusions (n=57) were randomly assigned either to receive or not to receive a discussion of the jumping to conclusions bias and its pitfalls. Participants' performance on 3 reasoning trials - 1 emotionally neutral (beads) and 2 emotionally salient (self-referred survey words) - was then assessed; the number of stimuli participants requested before making a decision was evaluated to determine if the Jumping to Conclusions Discussion resulted in increased data gathering. There was no difference between groups (those who received and those who did not receive the Jumping to Conclusions Discussion) in terms of how many beads they gathered (p=.36), but there were significant differences on both reasoning trials of emotionally salient stimuli (p's<.05), such that participants who received the Jumping to Conclusions Discussion requested more stimuli on those tasks than individuals who did not receive the discussion. Thus, results suggest that discussion of the jumping to conclusions bias may impact the bias directly, at least for material that is emotional in nature. Results are discussed in terms of their relevance to cognitive behavioral therapies for psychosis and existing research on reasoning and delusions. © 2013.

Electrostatically Biased Binding of Kinesin to Microtubules

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wenjun; Alonso, Maria; Huber, Gary; Dlugosz, Maciej; McCammon, J. Andrew; Cross, Robert A.

2011-01-01

The minimum motor domain of kinesin-1 is a single head. Recent evidence suggests that such minimal motor domains generate force by a biased binding mechanism, in which they preferentially select binding sites on the microtubule that lie ahead in the progress direction of the motor. A specific molecular mechanism for biased binding has, however, so far been lacking. Here we use atomistic Brownian dynamics simulations combined with experimental mutagenesis to show that incoming kinesin heads undergo electrostatically guided diffusion-to-capture by microtubules, and that this produces directionally biased binding. Kinesin-1 heads are initially rotated by the electrostatic field so that their tubulin-binding sites face inwards, and then steered towards a plus-endwards binding site. In tethered kinesin dimers, this bias is amplified. A 3-residue sequence (RAK) in kinesin helix alpha-6 is predicted to be important for electrostatic guidance. Real-world mutagenesis of this sequence powerfully influences kinesin-driven microtubule sliding, with one mutant producing a 5-fold acceleration over wild type. We conclude that electrostatic interactions play an important role in the kinesin stepping mechanism, by biasing the diffusional association of kinesin with microtubules. PMID:22140358

Decision-making heuristics and biases across the life span.

PubMed

Strough, Jonell; Karns, Tara E; Schlosnagle, Leo

2011-10-01

We outline a contextual and motivational model of judgment and decision-making (JDM) biases across the life span. Our model focuses on abilities and skills that correspond to deliberative, experiential, and affective decision-making processes. We review research that addresses links between JDM biases and these processes as represented by individual differences in specific abilities and skills (e.g., fluid and crystallized intelligence, executive functioning, emotion regulation, personality traits). We focus on two JDM biases-the sunk-cost fallacy (SCF) and the framing effect. We trace the developmental trajectory of each bias from preschool through middle childhood, adolescence, early adulthood, and later adulthood. We conclude that life-span developmental trajectories differ depending on the bias investigated. Existing research suggests relative stability in the framing effect across the life span and decreases in the SCF with age, including in later life. We highlight directions for future research on JDM biases across the life span, emphasizing the need for process-oriented research and research that increases our understanding of JDM biases in people's everyday lives. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Cognitive bias in symptomatic and recovered agoraphobics.

PubMed

Stoler, L S; McNally, R J

1991-01-01

Symptomatic agoraphobics, recovered agoraphobics, and normal control subjects completed a series of sentence stems that had either ambiguous or unambiguous meanings, and had either a potentially threatening or a nonthreatening connotation. The written completions made by subjects to these stems were classified as indicating either a biased (i.e. threat-related) or unbiased interpretation of the meaning of the stem, and if a biased interpretation was made, whether the subject indicated efforts at adaptive coping with the perceived threat. Results indicated that symptomatic agoraphobics exhibited strong biases for interpreting information as threatening, relative to normal control subjects. Moreover, recovered agoraphobics resembled symptomatic agoraphobics more than normal control subjects, thus indicating that cognitive biases may persist following cessation of panic attacks and reductions in avoidance behavior. However, recovered agoraphobics also exhibited tendencies to cope adaptively with perceived threats whereas symptomatic agoraphobics did not.

On the linearity of tracer bias around voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollina, Giorgia; Hamaus, Nico; Dolag, Klaus; Weller, Jochen; Baldi, Marco; Moscardini, Lauro

2017-07-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe can be observed only via luminous tracers of the dark matter. However, the clustering statistics of tracers are biased and depend on various properties, such as their host-halo mass and assembly history. On very large scales, this tracer bias results in a constant offset in the clustering amplitude, known as linear bias. Towards smaller non-linear scales, this is no longer the case and tracer bias becomes a complicated function of scale and time. We focus on tracer bias centred on cosmic voids, I.e. depressions of the density field that spatially dominate the Universe. We consider three types of tracers: galaxies, galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei, extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder. In contrast to common clustering statistics that focus on auto-correlations of tracers, we find that void-tracer cross-correlations are successfully described by a linear bias relation. The tracer-density profile of voids can thus be related to their matter-density profile by a single number. We show that it coincides with the linear tracer bias extracted from the large-scale auto-correlation function and expectations from theory, if sufficiently large voids are considered. For smaller voids we observe a shift towards higher values. This has important consequences on cosmological parameter inference, as the problem of unknown tracer bias is alleviated up to a constant number. The smallest scales in existing data sets become accessible to simpler models, providing numerous modes of the density field that have been disregarded so far, but may help to further reduce statistical errors in constraining cosmology.

Specificity and modifiability of cognitive biases in hypochondriasis.

PubMed

Gropalis, Maria; Bleichhardt, Gaby; Hiller, Wolfgang; Witthöft, Michael

2013-06-01

According to cognitive-behavioral models of hypochondriasis (HYP), biased attentional and memory processes related to health threat stimuli are crucial for the development and maintenance of severe health anxiety. Little is known about the specificity, temporal stability, and modifiability of these biases via psychotherapy. In an emotional Stroop and subsequent recognition task, the authors compared attention and memory processes for health-related words (illnesses, bodily complaints, and panic-related words) in patients with HYP (n = 32), other somatoform disorders (SFD; n = 27), and panic disorder (PD; n = 25). A control group consisted of 31 healthy participants (CG). All patients were reexamined after 4 months of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patients with HYP showed a significant attentional bias toward all 3 target word categories. Evidence for a specific bias was found only for the PD group. General recognition performance for health threat and neutral words was best in the HYP group. After therapy, attentional bias had clearly decreased in the HYP and SFD patients. Patients with HYP can be characterized by attentional bias and more elaborate verbal processing. These irregularities tend to disappear after psychotherapy.

Various divertor biasing configurations and improved divertor performance with biasing on Tokamak de Varennes (TdeV)*

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Decoste, R.; Lachambre, J.; Abel, G.

1994-05-01

Electrically insulated divertor plates are used on TdeV (Tokamak de Varennes) [18[ital th] [ital EPS] [ital Conference] [ital on] [ital Controlled] [ital Fusion] [ital and] [ital Plasma] [ital Physics] Berlin (European Physical Society, Petit-Lancy, 1991), Vol. 15C, Part I, pp. 1--141] to produce various biasing configurations, which can be decomposed into two basic modes. Plasma biasing, with a radial electric field [ital E][sub [ital r

What is abnormal about addiction-related attentional biases?

PubMed

Anderson, Brian A

2016-10-01

The phenotype of addiction includes prominent attentional biases for drug cues, which play a role in motivating drug-seeking behavior and contribute to relapse. In a separate line of research, arbitrary stimuli have been shown to automatically capture attention when previously associated with reward in non-clinical samples. Here, I argue that these two attentional biases reflect the same cognitive process. I outline five characteristics that exemplify attentional biases for drug cues: resistant to conflicting goals, robust to extinction, linked to dorsal striatal dopamine and to biases in approach behavior, and can distinguish between individuals with and without a history of drug dependence. I then go on to describe how attentional biases for arbitrary reward-associated stimuli share all of these features, and conclude by arguing that the attentional components of addiction reflect a normal cognitive process that promotes reward-seeking behavior. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Working memory and the memory distortion component of hindsight bias.

PubMed

Calvillo, Dustin P

2012-01-01

One component of hindsight bias is memory distortion: Individuals' recollections of their predictions are biased towards known outcomes. The present study examined the role of working memory in the memory distortion component of hindsight bias. Participants answered almanac-like questions, completed a measure of working memory capacity, were provided with the correct answers, and attempted to recollect their original judgements in two conditions: with and without a concurrent working memory load. Participants' recalled judgements were more biased by feedback when they recalled these judgements with a concurrent memory load and working memory capacity was negatively correlated with memory distortion. These findings are consistent with reconstruction accounts of the memory distortion component of hindsight bias and, more generally, with dual process theories of cognition. These results also relate the memory distortion component of hindsight bias with other cognitive errors, such as source monitoring errors, the belief bias in syllogistic reasoning and anchoring effects. Implications for the separate components view of hindsight bias are discussed.

Racial-ethnic biases, time pressure, and medical decisions.

PubMed

Stepanikova, Irena

2012-09-01

This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time pressure, implicit biases regarding blacks and Hispanics led to a less serious diagnosis. In addition, implicit biases regarding blacks led to a lower likelihood of a referral to specialist when physicians were under high time pressure. The results suggest that when physicians face stress, their implicit biases may shape medical decisions in ways that disadvantage minority patients.

The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Colin

2012-01-01

This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

The lighter side of advertising: investigating posing and lighting biases.

PubMed

Thomas, Nicole A; Burkitt, Jennifer A; Patrick, Regan E; Elias, Lorin J

2008-11-01

People tend to display the left cheek when posing for a portrait; however, this effect does not appear to generalise to advertising. The amount of body visible in the image and the sex of the poser might also contribute to the posing bias. Portraits also exhibit lateral lighting biases, with most images being lit from the left. This effect might also be present in advertisements. A total of 2801 full-page advertisements were sampled and coded for posing direction, lighting direction, sex of model, and amount of body showing. Images of females showed an overall leftward posing bias, but the biases in males depended on the amount of body visible. Males demonstrated rightward posing biases for head-only images. Overall, images tended to be lit from the top left corner. The two factors of posing and lighting biases appear to influence one another. Leftward-lit images had more leftward poses than rightward, while the opposite occurred for rightward-lit images. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the posing biases in advertisements are dependent on the amount of body showing in the image, and that biases in lighting direction interact with these posing biases.

Filtered cathodic arc deposition with ion-species-selective bias.

PubMed

Anders, André; Pasaja, Nitisak; Sansongsiri, Sakon

2007-06-01

A dual-cathode arc plasma source was combined with a computer-controlled bias amplifier to synchronize substrate bias with the pulsed production of plasma. In this way, bias can be applied in a material-selective way. The principle has been applied to the synthesis of metal-doped diamondlike carbon films, where the bias was applied and adjusted when the carbon plasma was condensing and the substrate was at ground when the metal was incorporated. In doing so, excessive sputtering by energetic metal ions can be avoided while the sp(3)sp(2) ratio can be adjusted. It is shown that the resistivity of the film can be tuned by this species-selective bias; Raman spectroscopy was used to confirm expected changes of the amorphous ta-C:Mo films. The species-selective bias principle could be extended to multiple material plasma sources and complex materials.

Bias of phencyclidine discrimination by the schedule of reinforcement.

PubMed Central

McMillan, D E; Wenger, G R

1984-01-01

Pigeons, trained to discriminate phencyclidine from saline under a procedure requiring the bird to track the location of a color, received cumulative doses of phencyclidine, pentobarbital, or d-amphetamine with a variety of schedules of reinforcement in effect (across phases). When the same second-order schedules were used to reinforce responding after either saline or phencyclidine administration, stimulus control by phencyclidine did not depend on the schedule parameter. When different second-order schedules were used that biased responding toward the phencyclidine-correlated key color, pigeons responded on the phencyclidine-correlated key at lower doses of phencyclidine and pentobarbital than when the second-order schedule biased responding toward the saline key color. A similar but less marked effect was obtained with d-amphetamine. Attempts to produce bias by changing reinforcement magnitude (duration of food availability) were less successful. A signal-detection analysis of dose-effect curves for phencyclidine under two of the second-order schedules employed suggested that at low doses of phencyclidine, response bias is a major determinant of responding. As doses were increased, position preferences occurred and response bias decreased; at higher doses both response bias and position preference decreased and discriminability increased. With low doses of pentobarbital, responding again was biased but increasing doses produced position preference with only small increases in discriminability. At low doses of d-amphetamine responding also was biased, but bias did not decrease consistently with dose nor did discriminability increase. These experiments suggest that the schedule of reinforcement can be used to bias responding toward or away from making the drug-correlated response in drug discrimination experiments, and that signal-detection analysis and analysis of responding at a position can be used to separate the discriminability of the drug state from other

Science faculty's subtle gender biases favor male students.

PubMed

Moss-Racusin, Corinne A; Dovidio, John F; Brescoll, Victoria L; Graham, Mark J; Handelsman, Jo

2012-10-09

Despite efforts to recruit and retain more women, a stark gender disparity persists within academic science. Abundant research has demonstrated gender bias in many demographic groups, but has yet to experimentally investigate whether science faculty exhibit a bias against female students that could contribute to the gender disparity in academic science. In a randomized double-blind study (n = 127), science faculty from research-intensive universities rated the application materials of a student-who was randomly assigned either a male or female name-for a laboratory manager position. Faculty participants rated the male applicant as significantly more competent and hireable than the (identical) female applicant. These participants also selected a higher starting salary and offered more career mentoring to the male applicant. The gender of the faculty participants did not affect responses, such that female and male faculty were equally likely to exhibit bias against the female student. Mediation analyses indicated that the female student was less likely to be hired because she was viewed as less competent. We also assessed faculty participants' preexisting subtle bias against women using a standard instrument and found that preexisting subtle bias against women played a moderating role, such that subtle bias against women was associated with less support for the female student, but was unrelated to reactions to the male student. These results suggest that interventions addressing faculty gender bias might advance the goal of increasing the participation of women in science.

Group bias in cooperative norm enforcement

PubMed Central

McAuliffe, Katherine; Dunham, Yarrow

2016-01-01

A hallmark of human social cognition is the tendency for both adults and children to favour members of their own groups. Critically, this in-group bias exerts a strong influence on cooperative decision-making: people (i) tend to share more with members of their in-group and (ii) differentially enforce fairness norms depending on the group membership of their interaction partners. But why do people show these group biases in cooperation? One possibility is that the enforcement of cooperative norm violations is an evolved mechanism supporting within-group cooperation (Norms-Focused Hypothesis). Alternatively, group bias in cooperation could be a by-product of more general affective preferences for in-group members (Mere Preferences Hypothesis). Here, we appraise evidence from studies of both adults and children with the goal of understanding whether one of these two accounts is better supported by existing data. While the pattern of evidence is complex, much of it is broadly consistent with the Mere Preferences Hypothesis and little is uniquely supportive of the Norms-Focused Hypothesis. We highlight possible reasons for this complexity and suggest ways that future work can continue to help us understand the important relationship between group bias and cooperation. PMID:26644592

Bias estimation for the Landsat 8 operational land imager

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morfitt, Ron; Vanderwerff, Kelly

2011-01-01

The Operational Land Imager (OLI) is a pushbroom sensor that will be a part of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM). This instrument is the latest in the line of Landsat imagers, and will continue to expand the archive of calibrated earth imagery. An important step in producing a calibrated image from instrument data is accurately accounting for the bias of the imaging detectors. Bias variability is one factor that contributes to error in bias estimation for OLI. Typically, the bias is simply estimated by averaging dark data on a per-detector basis. However, data acquired during OLI pre-launch testing exhibited bias variation that correlated well with the variation in concurrently collected data from a special set of detectors on the focal plane. These detectors are sensitive to certain electronic effects but not directly to incoming electromagnetic radiation. A method of using data from these special detectors to estimate the bias of the imaging detectors was developed, but found not to be beneficial at typical radiance levels as the detectors respond slightly when the focal plane is illuminated. In addition to bias variability, a systematic bias error is introduced by the truncation performed by the spacecraft of the 14-bit instrument data to 12-bit integers. This systematic error can be estimated and removed on average, but the per pixel quantization error remains. This paper describes the variability of the bias, the effectiveness of a new approach to estimate and compensate for it, as well as the errors due to truncation and how they are reduced.

Cognitive and neural mechanisms of decision biases in recognition memory.

PubMed

Windmann, Sabine; Urbach, Thomas P; Kutas, Marta

2002-08-01

In recognition memory tasks, stimuli can be classified as "old" either on the basis of accurate memory or a bias to respond "old", yet bias has received little attention in the cognitive neuroscience literature. Here we examined the pattern and timing of bias-related effects in event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to determine whether the bias is linked more to memory retrieval or to response verification processes. Participants were divided into a High Bias and a Low Bias group according to their bias to respond "old". These groups did not differ in recognition accuracy or in the ERP pattern to items that actually were old versus new (Objective Old/New Effect). However, when the old/new distinction was based on each subject's perspective, i.e. when items judged "old" were compared with those judged "new" (Subjective Old/New Effect), significant group differences were observed over prefrontal sites with a timing (300-500 ms poststimulus) more consistent with bias acting early on memory retrieval processes than on post-retrieval response verification processes. In the standard old/new effect (Hits vs Correct Rejections), these group differences were intermediate to those for the Objective and the Subjective comparisons, indicating that such comparisons are confounded by response bias. We propose that these biases are top-down controlled processes mediated by prefrontal cortex areas.

Reflecting Equity and Diversity. Part I: Guidelines and Procedure for Evaluating Bias in Instructional Materials. Part II: Bias Awareness Training Worksheets. Part III: Bias Awareness and Procedure Training Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bebermeyer, Jim; Edmond, Mary, Ed.

Reflecting a need to prepare students for working in diverse organizations, this document was developed to increase school officials' awareness of bias in instructional materials and help them select bias-free materials. A number of the examples illustrate situations dealing with diversity in the workplace. The guide is divided into three parts:…

The self-attribution bias and paranormal beliefs.

PubMed

van Elk, Michiel

2017-03-01

The present study investigated the relation between paranormal beliefs, illusory control and the self-attribution bias, i.e., the motivated tendency to attribute positive outcomes to oneself while negative outcomes are externalized. Visitors of a psychic fair played a card guessing game and indicated their perceived control over randomly selected cards as a function of the congruency and valence of the card. A stronger self-attribution bias was observed for paranormal believers compared to skeptics and this bias was specifically related to traditional religious beliefs and belief in superstition. No relation between paranormal beliefs and illusory control was found. Self-report measures indicated that paranormal beliefs were associated to being raised in a spiritual family and to anomalous experiences during childhood. Thereby this study suggests that paranormal beliefs are related to specific cognitive biases that in turn are shaped by socio-cultural factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opportunistic biases: Their origins, effects, and an integrated solution.

PubMed

DeCoster, Jamie; Sparks, Erin A; Sparks, Jordan C; Sparks, Glenn G; Sparks, Cheri W

2015-09-01

Researchers commonly explore their data in multiple ways before deciding which analyses they will include in the final versions of their papers. While this improves the chances of researchers finding publishable results, it introduces an "opportunistic bias," such that the reported relations are stronger or otherwise more supportive of the researcher's theories than they would be without the exploratory process. The magnitudes of opportunistic biases can often be stronger than those of the effects being investigated, leading to invalid conclusions and a lack of clarity in research results. Authors typically do not report their exploratory procedures, so opportunistic biases are very difficult to detect just by reading the final version of a research report. In this article, we explain how a number of accepted research practices can lead to opportunistic biases, discuss the prevalence of these practices in psychology, consider the different effects that opportunistic biases have on psychological science, evaluate the strategies that methodologists have proposed to prevent or correct for the effects of these biases, and introduce an integrated solution to reduce the prevalence and influence of opportunistic biases. The recent prominence of articles discussing questionable research practices both in scientific journals and in the public media underscores the importance of understanding how opportunistic biases are created and how we might undo their effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Effects of Hot Limiter Biasing on Tokamak Runaway Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salar Elahi, A.; Ghoranneviss, M.; Ghanbari, M. R.

2013-10-01

In this research hot limiter biasing effects on the Runaway discharges were investigated. First wall of the tokamak reactors can affects serious damage due to the high energy runaway electrons during a major disruption and therefore its life time can be reduced. Therefore, it is important to find methods to decrease runaway electron generation and their energy. Tokamak limiter biasing is one of the methods for controlling the radial electric field and can induce a transition to an improved confinement state. In this article generation of runaway electrons and the energy they can obtain will be investigated theoretically. Moreover, in order to apply radial biasing an emissive limiter biasing is utilized. The biased limiter can apply +380 V in the status of cold and hot to the plasma and result in the increase of negative bias current in hot status. In fact, in this experiment we try to decrease the generation of runaway electrons and their energy by using emissive limiter biasing inserted on the IR-T1 tokamak. The mean energy of these electrons was obtained by spectroscopy of hard X-ray. Also, the plasma current center shift was measured from the vertical field coil characteristics in presence of limiter biasing. The calculation is made focusing on the vertical field coil current and voltage changes due to a horizontal displacement of plasma column.

The source of the truth bias: Heuristic processing?

PubMed

Street, Chris N H; Masip, Jaume

2015-06-01

People believe others are telling the truth more often than they actually are; this is called the truth bias. Surprisingly, when a speaker is judged at multiple points across their statement the truth bias declines. Previous claims argue this is evidence of a shift from (biased) heuristic processing to (reasoned) analytical processing. In four experiments we contrast the heuristic-analytic model (HAM) with alternative accounts. In Experiment 1, the decrease in truth responding was not the result of speakers appearing more deceptive, but was instead attributable to the rater's processing style. Yet contrary to HAMs, across three experiments we found the decline in bias was not related to the amount of processing time available (Experiments 1-3) or the communication channel (Experiment 2). In Experiment 4 we found support for a new account: that the bias reflects whether raters perceive the statement to be internally consistent. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drift-corrected Odin-OSIRIS ozone product: algorithm and updated stratospheric ozone trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourassa, Adam E.; Roth, Chris Z.; Zawada, Daniel J.; Rieger, Landon A.; McLinden, Chris A.; Degenstein, Douglas A.

2018-01-01

A small long-term drift in the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) stratospheric ozone product, manifested mostly since 2012, is quantified and attributed to a changing bias in the limb pointing knowledge of the instrument. A correction to this pointing drift using a predictable shape in the measured limb radiance profile is implemented and applied within the OSIRIS retrieval algorithm. This new data product, version 5.10, displays substantially better both long- and short-term agreement with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone throughout the stratosphere due to the pointing correction. Previously reported stratospheric ozone trends over the time period 1984-2013, which were derived by merging the altitude-number density ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II satellite instrument (1984-2005) and from OSIRIS (2002-2013), are recalculated using the new OSIRIS version 5.10 product and extended to 2017. These results still show statistically significant positive trends throughout the upper stratosphere since 1997, but at weaker levels that are more closely in line with estimates from other data records.

Commercial influence and learner-perceived bias in continuing medical education.

PubMed